May 26, 2009
From the Sacramento Bee : More than 20,000 troubled homes are growing into a massive “phantom” inventory that could potentially be unloaded onto an already fragile housing market. … [ForeclosureRadar's Sean] O’Toole , for one, believes big banks may continue to foreclose more slowly, and will “dribble out” their accumulated repo properties in hopes of a market change. “I talk to them,” he said. “It’s like, ‘If we don’t foreclose, we see the market heat up again. You get a certain number of people who believe it’s a bottom and the prices come back. Then we don’t need to foreclose. These people can sell and get out from under them and we end up OK.’ ” Dribbling them out slowly would keep prices stable, he said. But it also would prolong the housing correction. … Field Check’s [Mark] Hanson doesn’t buy O’Toole’s theory, even as they work off the same data. He predicts a flood of cheap repo inventory on the market this summer. “The government and bank-specific moratoriums and modification initiatives have held back the massive wave of foreclosures,” he said, “kicking the can down the road. But there is only so high the floodwaters can build before breaking the dam.” Yet even a torrent of repo inventory on the market won’t pull median prices – now at $160,000 for existing Sacramento County homes – any lower, he said. That’s because more higher-priced homes are in the foreclosure process and will tug the median upward in coming months. “It does not mean the market is getting better,” he said.
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May 24, 2009
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