August 2009

Corporate Profits Rebound in Signal U.S. Economy Is Healing From Recession

August 27, 2009

By Shobhana Chandra Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — Profits at U.S. companies climbed in the second quarter by the most in four years, another sign the recession-stricken economy is on the mend. Earnings were up 5.7 percent from the prior three months to $1.25 trillion, the biggest gain since the first quarter of 2005, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. The figures, included in the department’s report on gross domestic product, were the first look at total profits. More cash means companies will depend less on still-fragile credit markets for financing, boosting the odds that the pace of firings will ease and investment will pick up. Caterpillar Inc. and Home Depot Inc. were among companies that reported profits exceeding analysts’ estimates as lower expenses overcame declining sales. “Corporate America is in a fairly solid position to benefit from the recovery,” John Ryding , chief economist at RDQ Economics LLC in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “In terms of cutting costs and positioning yourself for a recovery, corporate America has done a fantastic job.” Ryding warned that further gains will need to be driven by improving sales, because “you can’t continue to grow profits by continually cutting costs.” The world’s largest economy shrank at a 1 percent annual rate from April to June, less than the 1.5 percent decline forecast by economists in a Bloomberg News survey, today’s report showed. GDP is projected to start growing this quarter as inventory cutbacks slow and stimulus programs help stabilize housing and manufacturing. Exceeding Estimates Earnings beat analysts’ estimates for 72 percent of the 488 companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index that reported results for last quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg as of Aug. 25. Home Depot, the largest home-improvement retailer, on Aug. 18 reported second-quarter profit that fell less than analysts estimated and raised its annual earnings forecast. The Atlanta- based company is cutting 7,000 jobs this year, opening fewer stores, and has shuttered its Expo design chain and frozen 2009 base salaries for officers. Peoria, Illinois-based Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of construction equipment, has eliminated about 17,100 full-time jobs since December. Sales dropped 41 percent in the second quarter from the same time last year. Fund Expansion Improving profits are necessary at a time bank lending remains tight. While credit is gradually thawing, businesses can use earnings to fund expansion plans as the economy grows, said Joel Naroff , chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors Inc. in Holland, Pennsylvania. “Growing corporate profits are critical if the emerging recovery is to be sustained,” Naroff said in a note to clients. “Internal capital is likely to be needed at a greater rate and for a longer period of time than in previous expansions when banks were not so weak.” The improvement in earnings has come at a cost. The economy has lost about 6.7 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the most in any post-World War II recession. Companies have also trimmed hours, squeezing more out of remaining staff. Productivity , a measure of how much a worker produces per hour, jumped last quarter by the most in almost six years. Unit labor expenses , which reflect the jump in efficiency and account for about two-thirds of the cost of producing a good, dropped at a 5.8 percent pace, the most in eight years. The improvement in profits followed a 5.3 percent increase in the first quarter, today’s report showed. Business earnings plunged 23 percent in the final three months of 2008, the biggest drop since quarterly records began in 1947. To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington schandra1@bloomberg.net

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Interim Kennedy Successor May Be Named as Soon as Sept. 24, Lawmaker Says

August 27, 2009

By Tom Moroney Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick could temporarily replace the late U.S. Senator Edward Kennedy as early as the fourth week in September under a timetable being considered by Democratic members of the Legislature, a key committee chairman said today. “It is possible to get it done” by Sept. 24 or 25, said state Representative Michael Moran , a Boston Democrat and co- chairman of the Joint Committee on Election Laws. “Is it likely? I can’t answer that,” he said in an interview today. “There are too many moving parts.” Allowing the governor to name an interim replacement would mean a change in current law, which calls for a special election within five months of a Senate vacancy. There are no provisions for a temporary appointment. The week before his death, Kennedy sent a letter to Patrick, a fellow Democrat, urging him to persuade lawmakers to change the law so that someone could fill in before the special election. Kennedy argued in the letter that the state, in order to be fully represented, should have a mechanism in place to allow for the full complement of two senators as soon as possible in the event of a resignation or death. A Democratic appointee would help keep the party’s 60-vote majority needed to maintain U.S. Senate support for health-care legislation, a top priority for President Barack Obama . Kennedy had called health care “the cause of my life.” Letter From Kennedy “Any time you get a letter from Ted Kennedy , you certainly read it and consider whether you can accommodate him,” Moran said. The timetable outlined by Moran starts with a possible Sept. 17 hearing by the committee he co-chairs with state Senator Thomas Kennedy, also a Democrat. “That’s the date that’s been under discussion,” he said. “I caution that there is no agreement on this, but it’s the one we’ve been talking about.” Procedurally, the bill would be heard by the committee on that Thursday. The panel would then go into executive session to poll the members. A report would be issued and the entire Legislature could vote within days, possibly by the end of the next week, Sept. 24 or 25. Patrick, in an interview with the Boston public radio station WBUR yesterday, said he would sign such a bill when it lands on his desk. As soon as he signs, Moran said, he could choose the interim replacement. Biggest Hurdle “The biggest hurdle is that nobody, including me, wants to see this is as a handoff,” that is, having the governor appoint someone temporarily who then becomes the frontrunner in the special election for the permanent seat, Moran said. Lawmakers are negotiating the final language, trying to decide what wording best prevents that from happening, said state Representative Robert Koczera, a Democrat who represents the New Bedford area. Koczera filed a bill in January to change the current law and allow for an interim U.S. senator. Koczera said he had heard legislative leaders were working to schedule a hearing by mid-September. It was unlikely there would be any official announcement “out of respect” until after Kennedy’s Aug. 29 funeral. Democrats control both the Massachusetts House and Senate. Republican leaders who oppose the change could stall the process, said state Senator Robert O’Leary, a Cape Cod Democrat. The timetable Moran described is possible, “but if Republicans wanted to slow it down, they could,” O’Leary said from his cell phone as he was stationed on a road in Hyannis watching the Kennedy motorcade leave for Boston with the senator’s casket and family members. Obama will stay out of the debate over changing the Massachusetts election law, Bill Burton , deputy White House press secretary, told reporters in Oak Bluffs, Massachusetts, where the president is vacationing with his family. “It’s not a scale he’s going to put his thumb on,” Burton said. Selecting a replacement for Kennedy is “for the people, legislature and the governor of Massachusetts to decide.” To contact the reporter on this story: Tom Moroney in Boston at tmorrone@bloomberg.net

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GM’s Henderson Has Board’s Backing as Opel Sale Undecided, Whitacre Says

August 27, 2009

By Katie Merx Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — General Motors Co. Chief Executive Officer Fritz Henderson retains the full backing of the automaker’s board as the directors decide on the fate of the Opel unit, Chairman Ed Whitacre said. “The board gets along with Fritz, he has our unanimous support,” Whitacre, 67, said in an interview today. “We think he’s a good leader, we think he’s the right person for General Motors at this point in time.” The board, revamped since the Detroit-based company exited bankruptcy with government aid last month, hasn’t set a deadline for judging whether Henderson, 50, and his team have been successful, Whitacre said. He said the directors’ decision last week to consider new possibilities for Ruesselshiem, Germany- based Opel shouldn’t be viewed as a failing by Henderson. German Chancellor Angela Merkel ’s government has been pushing GM to sell Opel to a group led by Canadian auto-parts supplier Magna International Inc., after the U.S. carmaker signed a preliminary agreement in May. GM’s board threw a hitch into those plans when in an Aug. 21 conference call, it didn’t pick either of the bids, from Magna or Brussels-based RHJ International SA, presented by management and considered options such as keeping Opel. “The board will be giving the management team time to execute,” said Dennis Virag , president of Automotive Consulting Group Inc. in Ann Arbor, Michigan. “You have to give them at least a year to 18 months.” Whitacre, who as chairman and chief executive officer of AT&T Inc. assembled the world’s largest telecommunications company, became GM’s chairman on July 10. He leads a GM board that includes TPG Capital LP founder David Bonderman and Carlyle Group’s Daniel Akerson . To contact the reporter on this story: Katie Merx in Southfield, Michigan, at kmerx@bloomberg.net

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China Stocks Trading in U.S. Decline on Production Curbs; Volatility Falls

August 27, 2009

By Allen Wan and Veronica Navarro Espinosa Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — Most Chinese stocks trading in the U.S. dropped for a second day, led by commodity producers, on concern China’s efforts to stem overcapacity in industries including steel and cement will slow economic growth. Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. fell to the lowest in a month after the State Council called on authorities to “resolutely” curb overcapacity as the economy is still in a “critical period.” A-Power Energy Energy Generation Systems, a builder and installer of power systems and micro power grids Ltd. , slid to the lowest in six weeks after reporting second-quarter earnings that trailed analyst estimates. The Bank of New York Mellon China ADR Index , which tracks American depositary receipts, fell less than 0.1 percent to 366.81. The American Stock Exchange China Index gained 0.2 percent to 200.79, even as 10 stocks dropped and seven rose. The Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.7 percent to 2,946.40. The rally in Chinese stocks may be over as the biggest monthly plunge in the so-called China volatility index this year indicates investors are “comfortable” with current share-price levels, said Jonathan Masse , who helps oversee about $150 million at AlphaShares LLC, the fund manager co-founded by Princeton University economist Burton Malkiel . “Volatility is telling us we have found an equilibrium range that investors are comfortable with,” Masse said in a phone interview. “We’ll see sideways trading from here with a possible upward bias. This has been a very unusual month.” CHIX Falls The AlphaShares Chinese Volatility Index, or CHIX, has fallen 14 percent this month, the steepest retreat since December 2008. The CHIX is mirrored after the VIX, or Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index , because it almost always increases as stocks fall. The Shanghai index dropped 14 percent in August. The FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index , which tracks China’s 25 largest companies by market value, has declined 4.5 percent. The Shanghai index has gained 62 percent this year, as a record $1.1 trillion of new loans in the first half helped support the nation’s $585 billion economic stimulus package. The index has fallen 14 percent this month, the most among the 89 benchmark indexes tracked by Bloomberg, on concern economic growth will falter as banks rein in lending. In addition to curbs on industrial production, Chinese regulators are planning to tighten capital requirements for banks, three people familiar with the matter said last week. Aluminum Corp. of China fell 2.2 percent to $27.77. The nation’s largest producer said Chinese smelters and trade warehouses hold as much as 600,000 metric tons of inventories because of surplus output. ‘Comfortable’ A-Power Energy Energy Generation Systems lost 8.3 percent to $8.82. The company reported second-quarter earnings per share of 14 cents, compared with 20 cents expected by three analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. China Sunergy Co. gained 4.7 percent to $4.65. The manufacturer of solar power cells reported second-quarter polysilicon costs fell faster than prices for its finished products and forecasting higher deliveries. China Telecom Corp. advanced 2.5 percent to $50.20. The country’s biggest fixed-line phone carrier said that its first- half profit fell 28 percent to 8.41 billion yuan ($1.23 billion) after it spent more money on marketing its mobile-phone services. That beat the 7.8 billion yuan estimated by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. “Investors are comfortable with the trading range,” said Masse, predicting a range of 20,000 to 21,000 for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and 40 to 41 for the FTSE/Xinhua index. The CHIX tracks the implied volatility of options on the Hang Seng , the benchmark for Hong Kong stocks, and the FTSE/Xinhua index. The index is based on a methodology similar to the VIX, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index . To contact the reporters on this story: Allen Wan in New York at awan3@bloomberg.net ; Veronica Espinosa in New York at vespinosa@bloomberg.net .

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Dell Profit, Sales Exceed Estimates as PC Maker Trims Manufacturing Costs

August 27, 2009

By Connie Guglielmo Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — Dell Inc. , the second-largest maker of personal computers, reported sales and profit that beat estimates after cutting manufacturing costs and attracting buyers with low-priced notebooks. The shares rose 6.7 percent. Excluding some costs, profit was 28 cents a share in the second quarter. Analysts had predicted 22 cents on average, according to a Bloomberg survey. Chief Executive Officer Michael Dell has offloaded some manufacturing under a plan to save $4 billion a year. He’s also trying to reach consumers by getting Dell PCs into more retailers. While the company lost PC market share last quarter, it’s winning buyers for low-cost notebooks and scaled-down portables called netbooks. Shipments rose 10 percent from the previous quarter, Dell said. “PC sales were stronger than expected in the month of July,” said Dinesh Moorjani , an analyst with Broadpoint AmTech in San Francisco. He recommends buying the shares. Dell, based in Round Rock, Texas, rose 98 cents to $15.65 at 4 p.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market trading . Dell accidentally posted the earnings report on its Web site before the market closed. Net income declined to $472 million, or 24 cents a share, from $616 million, or 31 cents, a year earlier, the company said in a statement. Sales fell to $12.8 billion last quarter. Analysts anticipated $12.6 billion. ‘Demand Improvements’ Dell said it’s seeing “seasonal demand improvements” this quarter in its consumer and federal-government businesses, though it expects slower orders from business customers in the U.S. and Europe. Business spending likely won’t pick up until 2010, with U.S. information-technology buyers showing the first signs of recovery, the company said. Michael Dell, 44, told analysts at a meeting last month that there has been a “pretty significant deferral” of spending in 2009, particularly by business customers, which account for about 80 percent of the company’s revenue . Demand for a new version of Microsoft Corp. ’s Windows operating system, due Oct. 22, may help drive new PC purchases, especially among customers who skipped the previous Windows, Dell said. PCs account for more than half of Dell’s sales. “As these machines age, the cost just goes exponential for companies to keep older machines,” he said last month. “So at some point, it becomes really counterproductive.” Long Run The company has predicted annual sales growth of 5 percent to 7 percent “over a longer time horizon,” without being more specific. “Corporations cannot defer IT spending forever,” Moorjani said. He has boosted his estimates for Dell’s fiscal year revenue, betting that PC orders will rebound. The new version of Windows, along with demand for faster storage and server computers, could “trigger corporate hardware upgrades,” he said. In the second quarter, Dell ’s worldwide PC shipments fell 17 percent, pushing its market share down 2 percentage points to 13.6 percent, according to Stamford, Connecticut-based Gartner Inc. Hewlett-Packard Co. , which took the PC market lead from Dell in 2006, expanded its share to 19.6 percent. To counter the PC slump, Dell is expanding its services and storage business and offering more consumer products. It’s also going after small and medium-sized businesses with new leasing options. Last week, the company said it’s working on a wireless device for China Mobile Ltd., the world’s biggest carrier by users. That could pit Dell against Research In Motion Ltd. ’s BlackBerry and Apple Inc. ’s iPhone. The company is looking into why today’s results were posted before the scheduled after-market time. Chief Financial Officer Brian Gladden said he didn’t know what happened to cause the mistake. To contact the reporter on this story: Connie Guglielmo in San Francisco at cguglielmo1@bloomberg.net .

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FTC To Ban Most Telemarketing ‘Robocalls’

August 27, 2009

Americans tired of having their dinners interrupted by phone calls touting car warranties or vacation packages will soon get some relief. The Federal Trade Commission said Thursday it is banning many types of prerecorded telemarketing solicitations, known as robocalls. Currently, consumers must specifically join a do-not-call list to avoid them. Starting Sept. 1, telemarketers will first need written permission from the customer to make such calls. “American consumers have made it crystal clear that few things annoy them more than the billions of commercial telemarketing robocalls they receive every year,” said Jon Leibowitz, chairman of the FTC. Violators will face penalties of up to $16,000 per call. Don’t expect phone solicitations to disappear completely, though. Calls that are not trying to sell goods and services to consumers will be exempt, such as those that provide information like flight cancellations and delivery notices and those from debt collectors. Other calls not covered include those from politicians, charities that contact consumers directly, banks, insurers, phone companies, surveys and certain health care messages such as prescription notifications. The FTC said those don’t fall under its jurisdiction. And calls made by humans rather than automated systems will still be allowed, unless the phone number is on the National Do Not Call Registry. But the FTC said the ban should cover most robocalls, forcing marketers to turn to more expensive live calls, or ramp up efforts in direct mail, e-mail and TV ads. The ban is part of amendments to the FTC’s Telemarketing Sales Rule announced a year ago. Because the ban has been known, telemarketers already have been phasing out robocalls, said Tim Searcy, chief executive of the American Teleservices Association, a trade group whose members include telemarketers. He said the public won’t see much of a change. “For the consumer, the behavior is going to look the same Sept. 1 as it did Aug. 31,” he said. Searcy also said the ban will do little to stop calls touting illegal scams. People who get an unauthorized call can file complaints with the commission online or by calling 1-877-FTC-HELP. “If consumers think they’re being harassed by robocallers, they need to let us know, and we will go after them,” Leibowitz said. ___ On the Net: Complaint form: https://www.ftccomplaintassistant.gov Do Not Call registry: https://www.donotcall.gov

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Apple App Economy Worth $2.4 Billion, More Than Somalia’s GDP

August 27, 2009

Apps, apps everywhere, but just how big is Apple’s app economy anyhow? Chances are, it’s bigger than you think. According to mobile ad startup AdMob, $200 million in apps are downloaded each month, making the App Store worth about $2.4 billion per year. To place that in context, that’s slightly less than the nominal gross domestic product of Somolia, and quite a bit more than the GDP of Central African Republic.

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The Essential Real Estate Dictionary App

August 27, 2009

Lisa Holton’s digital book – which features definitions, abbreviations, and Web sites and serves as a handy guide for buyers, sellers, and professionals – is available in the iTunes App Store.

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De Vaulx’s IVA Worldwide Fund Rises to $1.7 Billion in Record for New Firm

August 27, 2009

By Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — IVA Worldwide Fund , opened by Charles de Vaulx and Charles de Lardemelle as financial-markets collapsed in October, reached $1.71 billion in assets in 10 months, the fastest start by a new mutual-fund firm. The fund’s growth through Aug. 1 surpassed that Marsico Focus Fund , run by Thomas Marsico , which rose to $892 million in 10 months from Dec. 31, 1997, according to data compiled by Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. IVA Worldwide posted a 17 percent investment return from Oct. 1 through Aug. 1, while drawing $1.49 billion in investor deposits. De Vaulx, 47, is a protégé of value stock-picker Jean-Marie Eveillard , whom he began working with in the 1980s at the predecessor firm to New York-based First Eagle Funds. De Vaulx left the firm in March 2007 and joined International Value Advisers LLC, also based in New York, 14 months later. De Vaulx, like his mentor, buys stocks and bonds he considers cheap compared with financial yardsticks such as earnings, and purchases gold to guard against market declines. “This is a conservatively run fund, and so pretty attractive given what we’ve gone through in the market since October,” Bridget Hughes , an analyst with research firm Morningstar, said in an interview. “De Vaulx had a long tenure and a good track record at First Eagle, so it’s not too surprising to see that he has done well.” Topping $3 Billion International Value Advisers increased assets to more than $3 billion in the past year among its two mutual funds and private partnerships for wealthy investors and institutions, according to the firm. A strong beginning is no guarantee of long-term success. Garrett Van Wagoner , whose Van Wagoner Emerging Growth Fund reached $710 million 10 months after opening in December 1995, stepped down last year after the fund’s assets plunged to about $17.5 million in the wake of investment losses. “Raising money in today’s market is different from the heyday of the technology bubble,” Geoff Bobroff , an independent fund consultant in East Greenwich, Rhode Island, said in an interview. Partnering With Eveillard De Vaulx joined Eveillard as co-portfolio manager on the $18 billion First Eagle Global Fund in 1999 and became its sole manager in 2004 after Eveillard retired. Eveillard, who returned when de Vaulx resigned, is taking his second turn at retirement after stepping back in March to become senior adviser to the fund, owned by Arnhold and S. Bleichroeder Advisers LLC. First Eagle rose an average 28 percent in the five years through 2006, beating the MSCI World Index by more than 9 percentage points. The duo shared Morningstar’s International Stock Manager of the Year award in 2001. De Vaulx graduated from the Ecole Superieure de Commerce de Rouen in France and holds the equivalent of a master’s degree in finance. De Lardemelle , one of the founders of International Value Advisers in 2007, also worked at de Vaulx’s former parent company. De Lardemelle, who joined First Eagle’s predecessor in 1996, most recently had been director of research. De Vaulx said IVA Worldwide Fund and the $406 million IVA International Fund , which doesn’t include U.S. stocks, are sold through intermediaries such as Merrill Lynch & Co., UBS AG, Raymond James Financial Inc. and Wachovia Corp., now owned by Wells Fargo & Co. He said he ultimately would like to limit the amount of money he manages to $10 billion to $15 billion. Keeping It Manageable “Asset-gathering is not our goal,” de Vaulx said in an interview. “It’s hard to manage too much money.” IVA Worldwide Fund advanced 20 percent from its inception, two weeks after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, through Aug. 25, compared with a 5.4 percent decline in the MSCI World Index of 1,654 global stocks, including reinvested dividends. Assets reached $1.88 billion, Bloomberg data show. The fund has about 6 percent of the fund in gold bullion. Top holdings as of June 30 included corporate bonds issued by Dutch semiconductor company ASML Holding NV and stocks such as Japanese drugmaker Astellas Pharma Inc. De Vaulx, who has 25 percent of the fund’s assets in cash, said he’s not convinced that the stock market rally from its March lows will hold. He expects tepid economic growth as unemployment stays high and consumers spend less. “We’re not seeing a long and happy V-shaped recovery,” he said. “It’s just not sustainable.” To contact the reporter on this story: Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam in Boston at sbhaktavatsa@bloomberg.net .

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Tributes to Senator Ted Kennedy: Photo Collection of Newspaper Front Pages

August 27, 2009

By Natasha Cholerton-Brown Aug 27 (Bloomberg) — In coverage reserved for only the most iconic of Americans, the death of Senator Ted Kennedy filled the front pages of newspapers across the country on Aug. 27, 2009. Source: Newseum via Bloomberg. To see photos click {1 } or go to {EXTRA }. Natasha Cholerton-Brown Photo Team Leader Tel: +1-212-617-7918 # # -0- Aug/27/2009 17:10 GMT

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Consumer Spending in U.S. May Revive to the `Old Normal’: Chart of the Day

August 27, 2009

By David Wilson Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — Spending on items that U.S. consumers can do without or put off buying has slumped so badly that it’s bound to bounce back, according to Tobias Levkovich , Citigroup Inc.’s chief U.S. equity strategist. As the CHART OF THE DAY shows, these so-called discretionary goods and services accounted for a smaller percentage of consumer outlays last quarter than at any other time since 1959. The proportion dropped about 0.3 percentage point, the sixth decline in seven quarters, to 15.6 percent. The chart is similar to one created by Steven Wieting , Citigroup’s managing director of economic and market analysis, that Levkovich cited yesterday in a report. Both were based on spending figures compiled by the Commerce Department. Consumer behavior is likely to revert to “the ‘Old’ Normal” — spending more closely tied to income, rather than borrowing — that prevailed during the 1950s through the 1970s, Levkovich wrote. “Some reasonable bounce is to be expected” in discretionary spending as that occurs, the report said. “The frivolous consumer will not turn into the frugal,” he wrote, adding that pent-up demand will lead to production and employment gains. Houses, cars and other durable goods, or items made to last more than three years, are the biggest category of discretionary spending as defined by Citigroup. The firm also included outlays on games, sports supplies, flowers, newspapers and magazines, hotel rooms, recreation and non-U.S. travel. The “old normal” reference contrasts with the “new normal” that Pacific Investment Management Co., or Pimco, foresees. The firm expects relatively slow economic growth for the next three to five years as households and businesses retrench. (To save a copy of the chart, click here.) To contact the reporter on this story: David Wilson in New York at dwilson@bloomberg.net

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Grassley Says U.S. Budget Deficit Will Force Congress to Limit Health Plan

August 27, 2009

By Laura Litvan Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — Senator Charles Grassley of Iowa, one of three Senate Republicans negotiating on health care, said the soaring federal budget deficit “puts a stake in the heart” of $1 trillion measures being debated in Congress. Grassley, the top Republican on the finance committee, said a bipartisan plan being discussed by panel members will have to be scaled back to have any chance of passing in the wake of new deficit projections released this week. He also said he may not agree to a compromise on health care unless he’s sure his state’s hospitals won’t be harmed. “It’s going to have a big impact on whether I’ll even support something,” he said at a town-hall meeting yesterday in Le Mars, Iowa. He voiced concern that rural hospitals will be hurt by a pledge last month by hospital trade groups to produce $155 billion in cost savings over 10 years as part of an Obama administration drive to curb health-care expenditures. Grassley’s opinion matters because his talks with two other Republicans and three Democrats on the finance panel offer the last chance for a bipartisan accord to remake the $2.5 trillion medical-care system. Democrats are threatening a party-line vote if they can’t agree, a move that Republicans warn will undercut public support for any plan. His comments came during a month-long recess dominated by town-hall meetings across the U.S. that have highlighted the unease among many voters that a revamp of the health-care system may jeopardize their current coverage. Voter Reservations Grassley, an Iowa farmer who has held the Senate seat since 1980, got an earful from voters in Republican-dominated western Iowa communities he visited yesterday. Several expressed reservations about the growth of the government’s role at a time when the Obama administration has expanded its reach into the auto and banking industries. Brian Rosener, the chairman of the Woodbury County Republican Party , demanded at the Le Mars town-hall meeting that Grassley quit the bipartisan talks. “I have a great deal of concern with your continuing to negotiate,” Rosener said to cheers from some in the audience. “I would appreciate if nothing gets done, rather than something, under the administration.” Another man who identified himself as a small-business owner countered that, describing how he struggles with rising health-insurance premiums for his workers. He called on Grassley to support the overhaul in honor of the late Senator Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts, who spent years working on bipartisan health-care compromises. “What can we do to find common ground?” he said as many in the crowd groaned. Committed to Talks Grassley said in an interview that he remains committed to negotiations with Finance panel chairman Max Baucus and the other four lawmakers — Democrats Kent Conrad of North Dakota and Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico, and Republicans Mike Enzi of Wyoming and Olympia Snowe of Maine. Still, he said, a forecast by the Congressional Budget Office that deficits between 2010 and 2019 will total $7.1 trillion calls for a more-limited measure than the $900 billion bill the bipartisan group was discussing last month. “We’re going to be looking at smaller numbers,” he said. The deficit projection also dooms $1 trillion measures already moving through the House and approved by the Senate health committee, Grassley said. ‘Compromising’ U.S. System Grassley also criticized lobbyists for the hospital trade groups who hatched the savings accord with the White House. He said they were “compromising our system of government” by not better involving local members in the talks. He’ll meet with the hospital administrators and a lobbyist from the American Hospital Association in Des Moines on Sept. 3 to go over the deal, he said. The AHA didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. Hospitals agreed to the gradual reduction of $50 billion in government payments they receive for treating the uninsured. Another $2 billion in cuts would be made assuming the number of patients being readmitted to hospitals would fall because of procedural changes pushed by the administration. And $103 billion would come from reduced payments from Medicare. The AHA worked to shore up support for the deal, releasing an analysis that showed that Community Health Systems Inc., HCA Inc. and other hospital chains could receive $171 billion over 10 years in reimbursements for the newly insured under health- care legislation. That would leave them with a net gain of $16 billion over a decade. To contact the reporter on this story: Laura Litvan in Sioux City, Iowa, at llitvan@bloomberg.net

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Kennedy Constituents Line Roads to Boston to Bid Farewell to Their Senator

August 27, 2009

By Brian K. Sullivan and Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — Thousands of Massachusetts residents gathered along the roads and highways between Boston and Hyannis Port in an effort to catch a glimpse of the black hearse bearing the body of Edward M. Kennedy . Kennedy, a U.S. senator since 1962, was taken by motorcade from his family’s compound on Cape Cod for the more than 70- mile (112 kilometer) trip to Boston, the city his grandfather John F. Fitzgerald once served as mayor. Kennedy’s wife, Victoria Reggie Kennedy , his son Patrick , a congressman from Rhode Island, his nephew Joseph Kennedy , a former congressman, were among the family members who are accompanying the senator’s body on the trip. So many family members wanted to accompany him to Boston, a bus had to be brought in to carry them all, according to WBZ, Channel 4, Boston’s CBS affiliate. State Senator Robert O’Leary, a Democrat who lives in the town of Barnstable, was one of the hundreds gathered on a back road in Hyannis to watch the motorcade leave for Boston. “I’m surrounded,” he said on his cell phone.“People are everywhere. I’ve never seen anything like it.” A military honor guard stood watch outside the home. After a private mass, several family members gathered on a porch where they could be seen laughing and holding hands as they waited to assemble for the procession to Boston. “Today, the city of Boston will celebrate the life of Senator Kennedy,” Boston Mayor Thomas Menino said in a statement. “I urge everyone to take a few minutes to remember his service to our city, state and country.” 47 Bell Rings Menino, a Democrat like Kennedy, and his wife, Angela, planned to watch the procession pass City Hall while the bell atop Faneuil Hall was to ring 47 times, once for each year of Kennedy’s service in the U.S. Senate. Thousands of Boston residents and workers were expected to line the streets, as well as the Rose Kennedy Greenway, a park in the center of the city named for Kennedy’s mother. Along the roads from Cape Cod to Boston, people held U.S. flags and held signs saying good-bye to the senator. The motorcade was to tour locations in the city that were important to Kennedy’s family, such as St. Stephen’s Roman Catholic Church in Boston’s North End neighborhood where his mother was baptized and eulogized. The hearse was also scheduled to pass by the office where Kennedy served as an assistant district attorney and where his brother, the late President John F. Kennedy , lived while serving in U.S. Congress. It will also pass by the JFK Federal building named for his brother and where he had his Boston office for many years. Public Viewing Following its tour of the city, the motorcade will arrive at the John F. Kennedy Library and Museum at about 4 p.m. where the senator’s body will lie in state for public viewing until Aug. 29. His funeral will be held at Our Lady of Perpetual Help Basilica on the day after tomorrow where President Barack Obama , vacationing on the Massachusetts island of Martha’s Vineyard, will speak. Obama is “still working” on the eulogy, White House spokesman Bill Burton told reporters today on Martha’s Vineyard.“It’s obviously going to be very personal.” Kennedy will be buried near his two brothers — President Kennedy, assassinated in 1963, and New York Senator Robert F. Kennedy , killed by a gunman in 1968 — at Arlington National Cemetery. To contact the reporters on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net ; Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam in Boston at sbhaktavatsa@bloomberg.net

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CFTC `Seriously Looking’ at Position Limits for Derivatives, Gensler Says

August 27, 2009

By Peter Cook and Dawn Kopecki Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler said he is still “seriously looking” at positions limits for energy traders and expects legislation addressing the derivatives market to succeed. “We want to make sure that no one trader has such an outsized or large position that that concentrated position might have a burden to the marketplace,” Gensler said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. The CFTC is seeking a “fair and orderly’ market, he said. To contact the reporters on this story: Peter Cook in Washington at pcook6@bloomberg.net ; Dawn Kopecki in Washington at dkopecki@bloomberg.net .

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AIG Advances on Speculation Greenberg May Help Benmosche Rebuild Insurer

August 27, 2009

By Jamie McGee and Hugh Son Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — American International Group Inc ., the insurer bailed out by the U.S., gained in New York trading on speculation the company may benefit from improved relations with former Chief Executive Officer Maurice “Hank” Greenberg . Robert Benmosche , named this month as the New York-based insurer’s fifth CEO in four years, told Reuters he contacted Greenberg after taking the job. Greenberg led AIG for almost four decades, building the company into the world’s largest insurer, before being forced out in 2005. “I want to get the benefit of his criticisms or his support,” Benmosche said, according to Reuters, which cited an interview with the executive in Croatia where he has a home. “The world may choose to vilify him. I think of him as having had some problems, but he can help us with the solutions.” Benmosche needs to retain customers and employees to maintain the value of assets the company is trying to sell to repay loans within the $182.5 billion bailout that was required to prop up the company after bad bets tied to subprime mortgages. He told Bloomberg last week he will sell units “only at the right time at the right price.” AIG advanced $2.12, or 5.6 percent, to $39.81 at 9:36 a.m. in New York Exchange composite trading. The insurer posted its first quarterly profit since 2007 on Aug. 7 and has more than tripled in the past month. Greenberg, who controls the largest privately held stake in the insurer, has said AIG’s best chance to repay the government is to rebuild the company, the approach Benmosche told employees he will take. Greenberg had said Benmosche’s predecessor, Edward Liddy , was unqualified for the job. ‘Bob Has All of That’ “Some, who had been there before, shouldn’t have been put in that spot,” Greenberg told Reuters. “In my judgment, they did not have the breadth, intellect or experience necessary. Bob has all of that,” he said about Benmosche. Benmosche was previously CEO of MetLife Inc ., the largest U.S. life insurer. Liddy had been CEO of Allstate Corp ., the biggest publicly traded U.S. home and auto insurer. To contact the reporter on this story: Jamie McGee in New York at Jmcgee8@bloomberg.net ; Hugh Son in New York at hson1@bloomberg.net ;

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FDIC List of Problem U.S. Banks Rises to 416, Putting Reserve Fund at Risk

August 27, 2009

By Alison Vekshin Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. added 111 lenders to its list of “problem banks,” a jump that suggests rising bank failures may force the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to deplete a reserve fund that shrank 40 percent this year. A total of 416 banks with combined assets of $299.8 billion failed the FDIC’s grading system for asset quality, liquidity and earnings in the second quarter, the most since June 1994, the Washington-based FDIC said in a report today. Regulators didn’t identify companies deemed “problem” banks. The U.S. has taken over 81 banks this year, including Guaranty Financial Group Inc. in Texas and Colonial BancGroup Inc. in Alabama, amid the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. The surge forced regulators to charge banks an emergency fee to raise $5.6 billion for its insurance fund, which fell to $10.4 billion as of June 30 from $13 billion in the previous quarter, the agency said. The total was the lowest since the savings-and-loan crisis in 1993. “We’re right in the middle of the cycle and it’s a very tough place to be,” said James Chessen , chief economist at the American Bankers Association, a Washington-based industry group. “We’ll have another couple of more quarters where banks will be working through these loan-loss problems.” An $11.6 billion increase in loss provisions for bank failures caused the decline in the reserve fund, the FDIC said. If the fund is drained, the FDIC has the option of tapping a line of credit at the Treasury Department that Congress extended in May to $100 billion, with temporary borrowing authority of $500 billion through 2010. Line of Credit The agency doesn’t expect to use the Treasury line of credit, FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said in a news conference releasing the data. Bair said the number of problem banks and failures will remain elevated as banks and thrifts continue to clean up their balance sheets. “For now, the difficult and necessary process of recognizing loan losses and cleaning up balance sheets continues to be reflected in the industry’s bottom line,” she said. FDIC-insured banks reported a net loss of $3.7 billion in the second quarter, compared with a $5.5 billion gain in the first quarter. The quarterly loss, the second the industry has reported in 18 years, was driven by increased expenses for bad loans, the FDIC said. Funds set aside by banks to cover loan losses rose to $66.9 billion in the second quarter from $60.9 billion in the first quarter. Nonperforming Loans More than 150 publicly traded U.S. lenders own nonperforming loans that equal 5 percent or more of their holdings, a level that former regulators say can wipe out a bank’s equity and threaten its survival, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The biggest banks with nonperforming loans of at least 5 percent include Wisconsin’s Marshall & Ilsley Corp. and Georgia’s Synovus Financial Corp., according to Bloomberg data. Among those exceeding 10 percent, the biggest in the 50 U.S. states was Michigan’s Flagstar Bancorp . All said in second- quarter filings they’re “well-capitalized” by regulatory standards, which means they’re considered financially sound. The FDIC insures deposits at 8,195 institutions with $13.3 trillion in assets. The agency is a state-bank regulator that insures bank customer deposits, helps find buyers for failing banks and liquidates lenders that have collapsed. The agency this week approved new guidelines for private- equity firms that invest in failed banks to increase the pool of buyers beyond traditional lenders and reduce costs to the banking industry and taxpayers. To contact the reporter on this story: Alison Vekshin in Washington at avekshin@bloomberg.net .

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U.S. Stocks Reverse Decline as Fuel Prices Rebound; Boeing, Citigroup Gain

August 27, 2009

By Elizabeth Stanton Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks dropped, led by energy producers , as oil fell a third day and regulators boosted the number of “problem banks” to a 15-year high, spurring speculation the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s 52 percent rally since March isn’t justified. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., the biggest U.S. fuel suppliers, declined more than 1.1 percent after crude declined below $70 a barrel. Regional banks in the S&P 500 fell 0.5 percent as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. added 111 lenders to a list of troubled firms. Toll Brothers Inc. slid after the nation’s largest builder of luxury homes posted a wider loss. The S&P 500 slipped 0.6 percent to 1,022.15 at 12:11 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 12.62 points, or 0.1 percent, to 9,530.90, lifted by Boeing Co.’s 9.1 percent surge. The Russell 2000 Index of small companies slumped 1.2 percent to 577.29. “There are good reasons to be suspicious about the strength of the recovery,” said Ralph Shive , manager of the $1.3 billion Wasatch-1st Source Income Equity Fund, which beat 96 percent of similar funds during the past five years. “We could pull back a bunch after the kind of rally we had.” The S&P 500’s surge since March pushed the measure’s price to 19 times operating earnings of its companies from the past year, the most expensive level since 2004. A decline in the S&P 500 below its 200-month average would probably signal an additional slump of as much as 6.5 percent, according to Chicago-based Technical Analytics Inc. Drop to 950 The measure finished at 1,028.12 yesterday. That’s 1.2 percent more than 1,015.58, its average close on the 26th day of the past 200 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Falling below that level would presage a drop to about 990, said Al Bicoff , the president of Technical Analytics. If that is breached, the S&P 500 might slip to 950, he added. Nine of ten industries in the S&P 500 fell today, led by a 1.5 percent decline in energy shares. Crude oil earlier fell below $70 a barrel in New York on signs that demand will be slow to rebound after a report yesterday showed that inventories unexpectedly rose last week in the U.S., the largest energy- consuming country. Exxon dropped 1.3 percent to $70.42, and Chevron lost 1.1 percent to $70.30. Crude for October delivery retreated 1.1 percent to $70.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and slipped as low as $69.83. Regional Banks Fall The S&P 500 Regional Banks Index retreated 0.5 percent. Marshall & Ilsley Corp. fell the most, losing 2.4 percent to $6.99. Fifth Third Bancorp dropped 2.3 percent to $10.49. The FDIC’s list of “problem banks” grew to 36 percent to 416. The regulator didn’t identify the banks, which are graded based on asset quality, liquidity and earnings. Toll Brothers dropped 1.1 percent to $22.89. Its net loss for the three months ended July 31 swelled to $472.3 million from $29.3 million a year earlier. The loss, which included tax charges and writedowns of $554 million, was bigger than analysts’ estimates. Stocks also declined after Labor Department said 570,000 Americans filed claims for jobless benefits last week, more than the 565,000 median estimate of economists. The Commerce Department said the economy shrank at a 1 percent annual rate in the second quarter, less than the 1.5 percent projected in a Bloomberg survey. Boeing , the second-biggest maker of commercial aircraft, surged 9.1 percent to $52.16 after predicting the 787 Dreamliner will make its first flight this year. Customers will receive planes in the fourth quarter of 2010, and the project will be profitable following a $2.5 billion third-quarter charge, Boeing said. The new delivery target is about 2 1/2 years behind schedule. Citigroup increased 7.6 percent to $4.98. Hedge fund manager John Paulson has acquired about a 2 percent stake in the New- York based bank, the New York Post reported today, citing unidentified people. Financial stocks in the S&P 500 have climbed 133 percent since the benchmark for U.S. equities began rallying from a 12-year low on March 9. To contact the reporter on this story: Elizabeth Stanton in New York at estanton@bloomberg.net .

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Top 10 Posts on Avoiding Home Foreclosure – Real Estate Law – Law …

August 27, 2009

Home foreclosure is still a hot topic on the minds of many Americans. Mass layoffs, furloughs, and salary… – Real Estate Law.

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Unemployment: An Awful Waste Of Time

August 27, 2009

Unemployment can be lonely and frustrating. No fellow commuters, no coworkers. Lots of people don’t know where they went wrong — because they didn’t actually do anything wrong. Fourteen million Americans are currently jobless. Brian Gagnon of Fort Worth, Texas, wrote to say he agreed with an Aug. 17 item that said “people are relieved when they see that they’re not alone in the world of joblessness.” “I don’t think misery actually loves company,” Gagnon wrote, “but there is some comfort knowing that other competent and productive folks are experiencing the hollow ache in the pits of their stomachs the same as me.” Gagnon wrote that he lost his job from the local CBS affiliate station in March 2008 in a mass layoff. He suspected that the company would have been glad to get rid of him because he cost the company “a bundle” in health insurance, on account of his wife’s auto-immune disease. He got a decent severance and COBRA benefits. He noted that a few weeks later, CBS CEO Les Moonves was awarded a $9.5 million dollar bonus . “But I’m not bitter or anything,” Gagnon added. No, he’s bored. “Everyday I sit at this computer trolling job sites and I’m more than kind of sick of it,” he wrote. “I’ll apply for everything that I think I can do but now I’m also running into the age thing. I’m 54 and most businesses look at me and think I’m too expensive. I know it’s a cliché to say they can hire a 25 year old cheaper than me and for that I apologize, but there is a kernel of truth to it.” The worst part about long-term unemployment, Gagnon said, is that it feels like such a waste of time. “You get into a malaise of ‘I’m comfortable not doing anything,’ and that’s not how you’re wired,” he said in a phone interview. “There’s still a part of me that [feels like] every afternoon I should be getting ready to go to work. I’ve always said that the day I care about who wins on The Price is Right , just shoot me.” Gagnon mentioned that he once briefly pursued an MBA and had Dick Armey as an economics professor. He said he took two things from his class. “The first was that I no longer wanted to be in school,” he said. “The second was something he said in class. It was to the effect that a fair measure of someone’s worth to society was the value of that individual’s paycheck. I kind of think that is how a lot of unemployed people feel. No paycheck, no worth.” Gagnon doesn’t really let it get to him. Though he is one of nearly 1.5 million people whose unemployment benefits will expire at the end of the year, he remains confident that he and his wife will be fine. They live frugally and they’ll keep their house. She’s got a job, and is studying to become a paralegal. Gagnon mentioned that she’s got a 3.904 GPA, and that he’s proud of her. “We don’t do a lot, but we get by,” he said. Click here to read more stories about regular people living the unemployed life. Got a story of your own? Share it! Email arthur@huffingtonpost.com .

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AIG CEO Benmosche Slams "Lynch Mob" Attacks, Defends His Croatian Vacation

August 27, 2009

DUBROVNIK, Croatia (Reuters) – Wearing flip-flops, khaki shorts and a green polo shirt, the new chief executive of bailed-out insurer American International Group Inc says he’s getting a lot of work done from his massive villa overlooking the Adriatic.

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IRS May Target More Swiss Banks, Seek Names Over Tax Evasion, Ambuehl Says

August 27, 2009

By Klaus Wille and Matthias Wabl Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — Switzerland’s chief negotiator in the UBS AG tax case said the U.S. Internal Revenue Service may request names of American clients from other banks after the Swiss government agreed to hand over UBS account details. “It is possible that the IRS will ask for more data on U.S. customers at other Swiss banks,” Michael Ambuehl , who led discussions for the Swiss foreign ministry, said yesterday in written comments to Bloomberg News. Ambuehl, 57, is the country’s most senior diplomat and a mathematician by training. A disclosure similar in scope to the Aug. 19 agreement is “questionable” because UBS is the only Swiss bank to admit unlawful behavior in its efforts to win rich U.S. clients, Ambuehl said. The IRS plans to target more banks, law firms and entities that help Americans hide assets, IRS Commissioner Douglas Shulman said when the settlement was announced. While Swiss banks manage about 27 percent of the world’s offshore wealth, tax evasion through offshore accounts robs the U.S. of $100 billion annually, according to U.S. officials. Under the deal, UBS agreed to provide Swiss authorities with details of 4,450 accounts where “tax fraud or the like” is suspected. While Switzerland has a year to decide which data to pass on to the IRS, legal appeals may delay the transfer beyond that time period, according to Swiss justice ministry spokesman Folco Galli . “Peace Treaty” UBS admitted in February to participating “in a scheme to defraud the U.S.” The Zurich-based bank agreed to pay $780 million and disclose the names of more than 250 clients who allegedly hid assets from the IRS. A day later, the IRS sued UBS for information on as many as 52,000 account holders, triggering negotiations that were settled last week in what Swiss Foreign Minister Micheline Calmy-Rey called a “peace treaty.” The UBS case and pressure from countries including France and Germany forced Switzerland in March to agree to adopt international standards on the exchange of information on tax evaders. The government has initialed new tax accords with more than a dozen governments to ensure the country isn’t blacklisted as a tax haven by the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The Swiss government has said that at least one treaty should be put to a national referendum. Germany, among the most vocal critics of Swiss bank secrecy, is scheduled to start talks with Switzerland on Sept. 8 about the renewal of their agreement. German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck last year asked for broader cooperation from Swiss authorities, and Germany’s secret service paid an informant on potential German tax evaders in Liechtenstein. Offshore Wealth Ambuehl said while he couldn’t rule out that other governments may take action against Swiss banks, the UBS settlement is based on a clause in the existing double-taxation agreement with the U.S. that provides for assistance in cases of “tax fraud and the like.” Other existing taxation agreements don’t include that phrase, he said. “I would expect that other countries will rather follow the path of broader legal assistance and not legal action,” Ambuehl said. Swiss banks hold $2 trillion for individuals overseas, according to Boston Consulting Group and the Swiss Bankers Association. UBS’s clients have pulled 156.3 billion francs, or 7.8 percent of the assets under management, at the wealth units since March of last year. To contact the reporter on this story: Klaus Wille in Zurich at kwille@bloomberg.net Matthias Wabl in Zurich at mwabl@bloomberg.net

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Royal Bank, Toronto-Dominion, National Beat Estimates on Trading Revenue

August 27, 2009

By Doug Alexander and Sean B. Pasternak Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — Royal Bank of Canada and National Bank of Canada reported record profits and Toronto-Dominion Bank’s earnings topped analysts’ estimates as Canadian lenders benefited from surging trading revenue and a housing market rebound. Royal Bank, Canada’s largest lender, said third-quarter net income rose 24 percent to C$1.56 billion ($1.42 billion), or C$1.05 a share. Toronto-Dominion , the second-largest bank, said earnings fell 8.5 percent to C$912 million, or C$1.01 a share. National Bank’s profit climbed 5.9 percent to C$303 million, or C$1.78 a share. The lenders join Bank of Montreal in surpassing analysts’ estimates, putting most Canadian banks on pace to top forecasts for the second straight quarter. A 16 percent gain in the benchmark Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index lifted trading fees while mortgage lending rose after existing home sales increased six straight months in Canada. “It’s a pleasant surprise,” said John Kinsey , who helps manage about C$1 billion at Caldwell Securities Ltd. in Toronto, including Canadian banks. “It would appear that the worst may be over.” Royal Bank surged C$4.16, or 7.8 percent, to C$57.25 at 9:33 a.m. trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Toronto- Dominion jumped 4.7 percent to C$69.22 and National Bank rose 3.2 percent to C$60.37. Before one-time items, Toronto-Dominion said it earned C$1.47 a share, exceeding the C$1.24 a share median estimate of 11 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Royal Bank said it earned C$1.21 a share on that basis, higher than the 93 cents-a- share median estimate. National Bank’s earnings beat the C$1.38 a share median forecast. Trading Fees Royal Bank’s earnings jumped for the first time in seven quarters as a surge in fixed-income, equity and currency trading fees offset soaring loan losses. Trading revenue rose more than fourfold to C$1.61 billion from a year earlier. “You can’t talk about Royal without talking about the huge amount of money they make in their trading operations,” said Craig Fehr , an analyst with Edward Jones & Co. in St. Louis. The three lenders set aside more money for bad loans as Canada’s jobless rate reached an 11-year high and bankruptcies soared. Royal Bank set aside C$770 million for bad loans, more than double a year ago. Desjardins Securities analyst Michael Goldberg forecast loan losses of C$979 million for Royal Bank. Toronto-Dominion’s provisions almost doubled to C$557 million. Loan Loss Provisions “Obviously, they knew that they’re going to enter into a period where loan-loss provisions are going to be rising,” said Steven Conville , a portfolio manager at Blackmont Capital Inc. in Markham, Ontario. “I don’t think there’s significant risk to the balance sheet of the bank.” Royal Bank said consumer banking profit in Canada fell 5.6 percent to C$669 million. Royal Bank’s international consumer banking, which includes Raleigh, North Carolina-based RBC Bank, had a loss of C$95 million, its fifth straight quarterly loss, as provisions rose. Earnings from the RBC Capital Markets investment-banking unit more than doubled to C$562 million, on a surge in trading and an increase in fees from stock sales. “We did make C$1 billion excluding all of our wholesale lending and capital markets activities, so I wouldn’t characterize it as the Goldman Sachs of the north,” Royal Bank Chief Executive Officer Gordon Nixon said in a conference call with analysts. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. last month posted record earnings as revenue from trading and stock underwriting reached all-time highs. Wealth management, which includes mutual fund sales, fell 10 percent to C$168 million. Insurance profit rose 21 percent to C$167 million. Toronto-Dominion Bank Toronto-Dominion said Canadian consumer banking climbed 5 percent to a record C$677 million due to higher personal and commercial lending. U.S. consumer banking profit dropped 30 percent to C$172 million on higher costs to integrate its banking network. The bank has about as many branches in the U.S. as it does in Canada due to last year’s $7.1 billion acquisition of Commerce Bancorp Inc. Asset-management earnings, including results from its minority stake in TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. , the third-largest retail brokerage by client assets, fell 19 percent to C$163 million as the bank had lower mutual fund and advisory fees. Profit from the TD Securities investment bank climbed more than eightfold to C$327 million. Trading-related income surged to C$633 million in the quarter, from a year-earlier C$43 million. National Bank National Bank, based in Montreal, said consumer banking climbed 1 percent to C$134 million, while its financial markets business, which includes investment banking, rose 1 percent to C$167 million. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce , the fifth-biggest bank, said yesterday that profit rose more than fivefold to C$434 million and missed analysts’ estimates as loan losses soared. Bank of Montreal , the first Canadian lender to report third-quarter results, said Aug. 25 that profit rose 6.9 percent to C$557 million. Bank of Nova Scotia, the third-biggest bank, is scheduled to release results tomorrow. (Toronto-Dominion Bank will hold a conference call at 3 p.m. at +1-416-644-3414 or 1-800-733-7560, or via the Internet at www.td.com/investor/qr_2009.jsp) (National Bank will hold a conference call at 1:30 p.m. To listen, dial +1-416-641-6130 or +1-866-862-3908.) To contact the reporter on this story: Doug Alexander in Toronto at dalexander3@bloomberg.net ; Sean B. Pasternak in Toronto at +1- spasternak@bloomberg.net .

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China Curbs on Overcapacity Show Government Confident of Economic Recovery

August 27, 2009

By Bloomberg News Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao ’s curbs on steel and cement production show the government is confident the economy is now strong enough to tackle industrial overcapacity created by record lending this year. “The fact that policy makers decided to make the adjustment now signals they deem investment strength and growth momentum outside of these areas already strong enough to withstand this move,” said Helen Qiao , an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Hong Kong. China’s State Council yesterday called on authorities to “resolutely” curb overcapacity as the economy is still in a “critical period.” The restraints on steel and cement output, as well as parts of the coal, glass and power industries, come as Chinese economic growth rebounded to 7.9 percent in the second quarter and Japan, France and Germany exited recession. “It’s a timely move,” said Tomo Kinoshita , an economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. “They are already suffering from an overcapacity but if they don’t stop now, the problem is going to worsen.” China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index has gained 62 percent this year. The gauge fell 0.4 percent today, after gaining 1.8 percent yesterday. Asian stocks declined after China said it would curb some industrial output, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index losing 0.8 percent to 112.66 as of 2:05 p.m. in Tokyo, set for its lowest since Aug. 21. Record Lending Fixed-asset investment in China increased 33.5 percent in the first half as local banks made a record $1.1 trillion of new loans in the first six months. That fueled growth in steel production to record levels in July, leading to a 12 percent drop in China’s benchmark steel prices in the two weeks ended Aug. 21. The China Iron & Steel Association said last month that the risk of a “market glut is piling up.” China’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package is aiding the economy, with manufacturing exhibiting signs of recovery, the State Council, the nation’s cabinet, said yesterday after a meeting chaired by Premier Wen. Authorities should “guide the healthy development of industries” through the coordinated use of industrial, environmental, land and financial policies, it said. Controls on stock and bond sales by companies in targeted sectors will be strengthened, according to the State Council’s statement. Steel, Cement Rio Tinto Group, BHP Billiton Ltd . and other commodities companies fell on concern China’s curbs would cut demand for their ore. Rio Tinto, which got 19 percent of its sales in China last year, fell 2.8 percent in Sydney trading. BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest mining company, declined 1.2 percent. China is the world’s biggest producer of steel, with the nation’s output last year exceeding the combined total of Japan, the U.S., Russia and India, the next four biggest makers, according to the World Steel Association . In the first seven months, China accounted for almost half of global output. Cement production in China accounted for half the world’s output last year, making it more than eight times bigger than closest rival India, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The country is also the biggest coal producer and consumer, accounting for 43 percent of global demand last year, according to BP Plc. ‘Likely Fall’ “Many countries, such as Australia, have been seeing significant increases in Chinese imports of raw commodities,” said Joseph Tan , chief Asia economist at Credit Suisse Group AG in Singapore. “If the demand is coming from industries that have been over-investing and the government is now signaling concerns over over-capacity, then demand for raw materials will likely fall in the next months.” The Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development said the economies of its 30 members collectively stopped shrinking in the second quarter as Japan, France and Germany exited recession. China accounted for a third of global growth last year, according to International Monetary Fund data using purchasing power parity calculations. In addition to curbs on industrial production, Chinese regulators are planning to tighten capital requirements for banks, three people familiar with the matter said last week. China’s central bank this month said it would carry out “dynamic fine-tuning” of the nation’s monetary policy. The People’s Bank of China also said it will maintain a “moderately loose” monetary policy and guide “appropriate” loan growth. Changes to China’s lending policies won’t hurt growth, which remains the top priority of policy makers, the Royal Bank of Scotland Plc said in a report today. “The current tweaking is aimed at reducing froth, rather than slowing growth,” wrote Wendy Liu , Hong Kong-based head of China research at RBS ABN Amro. For Related News and Information: Most-read stories about China today: MNI CHINA 1D China economic statistics: ECST CH Chinese stocks stories: TNI CHINA STK Most-read China economy stories: TNI CHECO MOSTREAD BN Top economic news: TOP ECO

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Insurers May Reap $375 Million as `Clunkers’ Program Means Higher Premiums

August 27, 2009

By Jamie McGee Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — Progressive Corp. and Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s Geico Corp. are among insurers that may benefit from the U.S. “cash for clunkers” program as drivers pay higher premiums to protect new cars. The government’s vehicle trade-in initiative could yield as much as $375 million in premiums, said Robert Hartwig , the chief economist of the New York-based Insurance Information Institute . “When they buy that new vehicle, the insurance generally will cost more,” Hartwig said in an interview. “It’s a newer vehicle and people will normally take out full coverage of the car. Any auto insurer would stand to gain.” A rebound in auto sales amid the clunkers program may bring relief to auto insurers facing pressure from rising medical costs, reduced consumer purchases and declines in the value of fixed-income holdings. Progressive last month reported its first quarterly gain in net income since 2006, and Geico’s profit fell 63 percent in the second quarter on an increase in claims. Sales of cars and light trucks plunged in the three years through February, falling to a 9.1 million annual unit pace from 16.5 million in the same month in 2006. The figure was 11.2 million in July, the highest since September. Auto insurers probably considered the clunkers plan “a pleasant, unexpected surprise in what is otherwise a market that has seen very little growth in terms of new vehicles on the road,” Hartwig said. The Obama administration created the clunkers program to stimulate the auto industry and offered buyers discounts of as much as $4,500 to trade in older cars for new and more fuel- efficient models. The program, which began in July and ended Aug. 25, produced almost 700,000 automobile sales, the U.S. Transportation Department said. State Farm The clunkers sales may prompt consumers to add to coverage for fixing or replacing a damaged car, according to State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co. , the largest U.S. auto insurer. “If you are driving a 10- or 15-year-old vehicle that was paid for, chances are very good that you probably did not have collision and comprehensive coverages on that vehicle,” said Kip Diggs , a spokesman for policyholder-owned State Farm, based in Bloomington, Illinois. “That’s where we would see benefits.” Diggs couldn’t provide a figure for the financial benefit to State Farm, which has about 18 percent of the U.S. private passenger market. The industry generated about $97 billion in policy sales according to 2007 data from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners. ‘Stimulus in Buying’ Progressive Chief Executive Officer Glenn Renwick said the effect of the clunkers program would be “relatively muted” given the size of the market. “‘We might see a little bit of stimulus in buying that will generally mean a trade up in the coverage for those vehicles,” Renwick said in an Aug. 12 conference call. The U.S. had estimated the program’s initial $1 billion in funding would spur 250,000 sales and expanded the plan by $2 billion earlier this month. Hartwig said the extension caused him to triple his estimate of premium revenue to a range of $225 million to $375 million. Progressive eliminated 280 jobs in May, after investment losses cut into income. The Mayfield, Ohio-based insurer has fallen behind Geico at Warren Buffett ’s Berkshire in the past year as the firms compete for policyholders. Geico, now the third-largest auto insurer in the U.S. behind State Farm and Allstate Corp. , added about 596,000 customers in the first half of the year. A call to Geico’s media office wasn’t immediately returned. To contact the reporters on this story: Jamie McGee in New York at Jmcgee8@bloomberg.net

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U.S. Stocks Decline, Led by Energy Producers; Toll Brothers Falls on Loss

August 27, 2009

By Adam Haigh and Elizabeth Stanton Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks dropped, led by energy producers , as crude oil fell for a third day and higher-than- forecast jobless claims spurred speculation that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index ’s 52 percent rally since March isn’t justified. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., the biggest U.S. fuel suppliers, declined more than 1 percent. Toll Brothers Inc. slid after the largest U.S. builder of luxury homes posted a wider quarterly loss. Boeing Co. , the second-biggest maker of commercial aircraft, gained 8.2 percent after predicting its 787 Dreamliner will make its first flight this year. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 7.14 points, or 0.7 percent, to 1,020.98 as of 9:58 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 42.47, or 0.5 percent, to 9,501.05. The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 20.52, or 1 percent, to 2,003.91. The S&P 500’s 52 percent rally since March 9 has pushed gauge’s price to about 19 times annual earnings of its companies, the most expensive level since 2004. About 76 percent of companies in the index that have reported results since June 17 beat the average analyst estimate for second-quarter profits, according to Bloomberg data. Jobless claims totaled 570,000, more than forecast, in the week ended Aug. 22, compared with a revised 580,000 the week before, according to the Labor Department. The data offset a Commerce Department report showing the U.S. economy contracted less than anticipated in the second quarter as a jump in government spending and smaller cutbacks by consumers helped mitigate a record plunge in inventories. 200 Days A decline in the S&P 500 below its 200-month average would probably signal an additional slump of as much as 6.5 percent, according to Chicago-based Technical Analytics Inc. The index, which closed at 1,028.12 yesterday, has traded higher than its 200-day moving average since July 13 and rose 17 percent above it yesterday, the most since April 1999. All 10 industries in the S&P 500 fell today, led by a 1.2 percent decline in energy shares. Crude oil slid after a report showed that inventories unexpectedly rose last week in the U.S., the world’s largest energy user. Exxon dropped 97 cents to $70.40 and Chevron lost $1.02 to $70.07. Crude for October delivery retreated 86 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $70.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Toll Brothers dropped 44 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $22.70. The net loss for the three months ended July 31 swelled to $472.3 million, more than analysts projected. Boeing added $3.81 to $51.63. The first 787 will now fly for the first time by the end of this year and be delivered to customers in the fourth quarter of 2010, the Chicago-based company said in a statement today. The delivery target is about 2 1/2 years behind the original goal of May 2008. Citigroup increased 11 cents to $4.74. Hedge fund manager John Paulson has acquired about a 2 percent stake in the New- York based bank, the New York Post reported today, citing unidentified people. Financial stocks in the S&P 500 have climbed 134 percent since the benchmark for U.S. equity began rallying from a 12-year low on March 9. To contact the reporters on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net . Elizabeth Stanton in New York at estanton@bloomberg.net

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Boeing Advances After Saying 787 Will Still Be Profitable With 2010 Launch

August 27, 2009

By Susanna Ray Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — Boeing Co. rose as much as 9.1 percent in New York trading after saying it still expects the 787 Dreamliner program to be profitable following a $2.5 billion third-quarter charge for the delayed plane. Boeing rose $4.33 to $52.15 at 9:40 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The 787 is now scheduled to fly for the first time by year- end and reach customers in 2010’s fourth quarter, the Chicago- based company said in a statement today. The new delivery target is about 2 1/2 years behind the original goal of May 2008. “The charge is rather eye-watering, but we think it is better to take the pain now, remove the overhang and get on with the program,” said Rob Stallard , a New York-based analyst with Macquarie Capital Inc., in a note to clients today. “The real challenge for Boeing is to actually stick to this revised 787 timetable — something it has been unable to do in the past.” Boeing postponed the new composite-plastic plane for the fifth time June 23, saying no new schedule could be given until it decided how to reinforce sections where the wings join the body after tests revealed unexpected stresses. Chief Financial Officer James Bell said in July he was reviewing whether the setbacks had pushed costs above expected revenue in a certain block of sales, which would produce a reach-forward loss. “Based on the revised schedule and other assumption updates, the company has determined that the 787 program is not in a forward-loss position,” Boeing said. The non-cash charge of $2.21 a share in the third quarter is being assessed because the initial flight-test jets will have no commercial market value because of the “inordinate amount of rework and unique and extensive modifications,” Boeing said. Market Value Until the latest delay in June, the company had planned to fly the plane in this year’s second quarter and deliver the first model in next year’s first quarter. Boeing lost more than half its market value since the 787’s first delay in October 2007, hurt by parts shortages, defects, redesigns and incomplete work from vendors. Chief Executive Officer Jim McNerney has said the company let down customers on its most successful sales campaign ever. There are 850 of the jets on order even after airlines canceled 73 this year. Boeing is using lightweight composites, instead of aluminum, and more electrical power to increase fuel efficiency on the Dreamliner. The planes have an average price of $178 million. The company said it’s adding “several weeks of schedule margin to reduce flight-test and certification risk.” The planned nine-month certification schedule would have been Boeing’s most aggressive ever. New Schedule “This new schedule provides us the time needed to complete the remaining work necessary to put the 787’s game-changing capability in the hands of our customers,” McNerney said in the statement. Boeing also pushed back its production plans today, saying it will ramp up to building 10 Dreamliners a month in late 2013 rather than 2012. Engineers are completing the design for the reinforcements of sections along the top of the wing and will begin installing the parts within the next few weeks, Boeing said. Commercial aircraft generated $28.3 billion of Boeing’s $60.9 billion in sales last year, trailing only defense programs. Toulouse, France-based Airbus SAS is Boeing’s only larger commercial rival. To contact the reporter on this story: Susanna Ray in Seattle at sray7@bloomberg.net

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`Problem’ U.S. Banks Rise to 15-Year High of 416 on Bad Loans, FDIC Says

August 27, 2009

By Alison Vekshin Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. added 111 lenders to its list of “problem banks” in the second quarter, a 36 percent increase that pushed the group to a 15-year high. A total of 416 banks with combined assets of $299.8 billion failed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s grading system for asset quality, liquidity and earnings, the most since June 1994, the Washington-based FDIC said in a report today. Regulators didn’t identify companies deemed “problem” banks. “For now, the difficult and necessary process of recognizing loan losses and cleaning up balance sheets continues to be reflected in the industry’s bottom line,” FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said in a statement. Regulators have taken over 81 banks this year, including Guaranty Financial Group Inc. in Texas and Colonial BancGroup Inc. in Alabama. Twenty-four banks collapsed in the second quarter as the pace of failures accelerated amid the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. The surge in failures prompted the agency to charge the industry an emergency fee in the second quarter to raise $5.6 billion to replenish its insurance fund, which fell to $10.4 billion as of June 30 from $13 billion in the previous quarter, the agency said. An $11.6 billion increase in loss provisions for bank failures caused the decline in the fund, the FDIC said. FDIC-insured banks reported a net loss of $3.7 billion in the second quarter, compared with a $5.5 billion gain in the first quarter. The loss, the second quarterly one the industry has reported in 18 years, was driven by increased expenses for bad loans, the FDIC said. Loan Losses Funds set aside by banks to cover loan losses rose to $66.9 billion in the second quarter from $60.9 billion in the first quarter. The FDIC insures deposits at 8,195 institutions with $13.3 trillion in assets. The agency is a state-bank regulator that insures bank customer deposits, helps find buyers for failing banks and liquidates lenders that have collapsed. The agency this week approved new guidelines for private- equity firms that invest in failed banks to increase the pool of buyers beyond traditional lenders and reduce costs to the banking industry and taxpayers. To contact the reporter on this story: Alison Vekshin in Washington at avekshin@bloomberg.net .

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Allen Stanford Hospitalized

August 27, 2009

HOUSTON — Texas financier R. Allen Stanford, jailed on charges of bilking investors out of $7 billion, has been hospitalized with an irregular heartbeat and high pulse, the judge in his case said Thursday. Stanford was set to appear in a Houston federal courtroom for a hearing on whether he can get a new attorney. His current lawyer, Dick DeGuerin, has asked for permission to quit the case because he doesn’t have assurances he will be paid. In the same courtroom, Stanford’s former finance chief, James. M. Davis, pleaded guilty Thursday to three counts: conspiracy to commit mail, wire and securities fraud; mail fraud and conspiracy to obstruct a Securities and Exchange Commission investigation. Davis’ attorney David Finn has previously said that Davis, 60, cooperated with prosecutors and the guilty plea is part of a deal with the Justice Department in exchange for a possible reduced sentence. He will be sentenced on Nov. 20 and faces up to 20 years in prison. Stanford, Davis and other executives of the now defunct Houston-based Stanford Financial Group are accused of orchestrating a massive Ponzi scheme by advising clients to invest more than $7 billion in certificates of deposit from the Stanford International Bank in the Caribbean island of Antigua and then misusing the money. Before the hearing, DeGuerin said Stanford was taken from the privately run prison where he is being held outside Houston about 5:30 a.m. Thursday to the Conroe Regional Medical Center. U.S. District Judge David Hittner said Stanford had an irregular heartbeat and an “extremely” high pulse. A spokeswoman for Conroe Regional Medical Center declined to release any information Thursday to The Associated Press. Hittner postponed a hearing scheduled for Thursday in which he would hear arguments about Stanford’s legal representation. Stanford was considered one of the richest men in the U.S. with an estimated net worth of more than $2 billion. But he claims he is now penniless. Last month, Stanford’s spokesman said the jailed financier had hired Washington, D.C.-based attorney Robert Luskin, who also represents former White House political adviser Karl Rove. But Luskin also wants assurances he’ll get paid, and Hittner won’t release DeGuerin until an attorney takes the case unconditionally. ___ Associated Press Writer Jeff Carlton in Dallas contributed to this report.

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New Chief Technology Officer Hired by Timeshare Resale Advertising Leader, Sell My Timeshare NOW

August 27, 2009

DOVER, NH–(Marketwire – August 27, 2009) – Sell My Timeshare NOW, a global leader in the online advertising and marketing of timeshare resales, is expanding its senior management with the addition of new hire, Chris Ownby as Chief Technology Officer. Ownby’s responsibilities will include managing Sell My Timeshare NOW’s IT department and extensive website improvement, development and interface projects. Chris Ownby comes to the Dover, NH-based timeshare resale and timeshare rental advertising company from Sapling Systems, where he was the CTO and the Vice President of Product Development. Prior to joining Sapling Systems, Chris Ownby managed the development of Harcourt Assessment’s online platform, which provided formative and summative testing for the United States’ K through 12 education system. He is the past

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UPDATE 1-Russia’s Sberbank to complete, sell developments

August 27, 2009

Reuters) – Sberbank , Russia’s largest bank and a major lender to property developers, will complete and sell real estate projects after foreclosure, the bank’s deputy chief executive said on Thursday. ‘We will complete and sell (the projects) to the

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Putting on Your Trading Clothes, Part 1

August 27, 2009

Putting on Your Trading Clothes, Part 1

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AT Group expands reporters’ network worldwide

August 27, 2009

AT Group expands reporters’ network worldwide

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Bernanke renominated; will hurt US economy for 4 more years

August 27, 2009

Bernanke renominated; will hurt US economy for 4 more years

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DuPont takes actions to capitalize on global growth opportunities

August 27, 2009

DuPont takes actions to capitalize on global growth opportunities

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Federal Reserve-Bloomberg Suit: Fed Argues That Disclosing Emergency Loans Will Hurt Banks

August 27, 2009

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve argued yesterday that identifying the financial institutions that benefited from its emergency loans would harm the companies and render the central bank’s planned appeal of a court ruling moot. The Fed’s board of governors asked Manhattan Chief U.S. District Judge Loretta Preska to delay enforcement of her Aug. 24 decision that the identities of borrowers in 11 lending programs must be made public by Aug. 31.

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Real Estate Wrap: New Home Sales Rise, Reverse Mortgage Fraud

August 27, 2009

Real Estate Wrap compiles the daily real-estate news from each morning’s Wall Street Journal and other news sources. New Home Sales Rise Sharply (WSJ) : New-home sales rose a sharp 9.6% last month in their fourth straight monthly increase, another sign of a recovery taking hold in the housing market. Concerns Rise for Reverse Mortgage Fraud (WSJ) : Regulators and law-enforcement officials are sounding alarms about the potential for fraud with reverse mortgages. Auditors Questioned Taylor Bean Transactions (WSJ) : Court filings have helped explain what led to the mortgage lender’s failure and Chapter 11 bankruptcy Adjustable Mortgages Threaten Housing (NYT) : Rising defaults on option adjustable-rate mortgages could threaten the housing recovery, some economists say. California Property Values Fall (LA Times) : Tax officials reported that total statewide property values fell for the first time since California began keeping records 76 years ago. California Home Permits Sink as Tax Credit Expires (Reuters) : Homebuilding permits filed in California fell in July from June as a state tax credit expired.

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First-Time Jobless Claims Expected To Drop

August 27, 2009

WASHINGTON — Government data this week showed that consumers and businesses went on a big-ticket spending spree in July, sending home, car and equipment sales soaring by the largest amount in years. On Thursday, the Labor Department’s report on weekly jobless claims will indicate whether that improved confidence about the economy is boosting the job market. Wall Street economists expect the number of first-time unemployment benefit claims will fall to 565,000 from 576,000. That would reverse two weeks of increases, which had heightened analysts’ concerns about the availability of jobs. The government on Thursday also will provide an updated estimate of the nation’s gross domestic product, the broadest measure of U.S. economic activity. Analysts expect the report will show that the economy shrank 1.5 percent in the April-to-June quarter, a bit worse than last month’s estimate of a 1 percent drop. Still, either number is an improvement over the 6.4 percent plunge the economy experienced in the first quarter, the worst in nearly three decades. On Wednesday, reports showed that new home sales jumped almost 10 percent from June, while orders for long-lasting goods like appliances, planes and computers rose nearly 5 percent in July, the third increase in the past four months. “It looks like we’ve hit bottom and we’re now slowly trying to dig our way out,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight. Still, it remains unclear whether the growth can be sustained. Though the increases in housing sales and manufacturing last month were dramatic, they came from extraordinarily low levels and were fueled by temporary government programs like Cash for Clunkers and tax credits for home sales. Most economists now agree the recession that began in December 2007 has ended or is ending. Some say the economy is poised to grow strongly in the July-September quarter, but will probably show weaker growth after government stimulus spending tapers off. Sales of new homes surged to a seasonally adjusted pace of 433,000 in July from 395,000 in June, the Commerce Department said, providing another sign the housing market is bouncing back from the historic bottom reached early this year. Driven by falling prices, the fourth-straight monthly increase was greater than expected. Sales haven’t risen so dramatically since February 2005. While sales are still off nearly 70 percent from the frenzied peak four years ago, they are still up more than 30 percent from the bottom in January – a big relief after a long and painful decline. “We can stop worrying about the housing market and start playing closer attention to other issues, such as when credit will start flowing more freely,” Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors, wrote in a note to clients. The improved outlook could help further boost the economy. As home sales rise, builders will gradually need to hire more workers to pour foundations and pave roads, reversing the trend that saw 1.4 million industry jobs shed since the recession began. “These are crucial elements of a sustainable recovery,” David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities, wrote in a research note. Construction job losses have slowed recently, with 76,000 lost in July, about half January’s level. Much like Cash for Clunkers, homebuyers are rushing to take advantage of a federal tax credit that covers 10 percent of the home price, or up to $8,000, for first-time owners. Home sales must be completed by the end of November for buyers to qualify. And there are many deals to be had: The median sales price of $210,100 was 11.5 percent lower than levels a year ago, but still up from March’s low of $205,100. Builders and real estate agents fear that the end of the tax credit could reverse the upward trend. Sen. Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., has introduced legislation to extend it for another year, raise it to $15,000 and make it available to all buyers. If that doesn’t happen, Isakson said in an interview, “the little improvement we have from awful to terrible will go away and it will go back to awful again.” Some builders are already seeing sales dip. At A.F. Sterling Homes in Tucson, Ariz., sales fell in July because the builder said it couldn’t guarantee the homes could be finished in time to qualify, said Randy Agron, the company’s vice president. “The real estate market is really a fragile thing,” he said. “It’s not the right time to take (the tax credit) away.” There were 271,000 new homes for sale at the end of July, down more than 3 percent from May. At the current sales pace, that represents 7.5 months of supply, which means builders have scaled back construction to the point where supply and demand are coming into balance. A similar trend is happening in other industries across the economy. Orders for transportation equipment, including cars, car parts and airplanes rose more than 18 percent, helping to drive the durable goods data. A huge jump in aircraft orders accounted for most of that gain. Also, auto production improved last month as General Motors and Chrysler reopened many plants that were shut in May and June while the companies restructured and emerged from bankruptcy protection. __ Associated Press Writer Christopher S. Rugaber contributed to this report from Washington. AP Real Estate Writer Alex Veiga contributed reporting from Los Angeles.

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FormTech files for bankruptcy, seeks asset sale – Automotive News

August 27, 2009

DETROIT — Suburban Detroit auto supplier FormTech Industries LLC filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection late Wednesday and plans to sell its assets to a private equity -owned forged products holding company. …

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S&P 500 Approaches 200-Month Moving Average in Warning: Technical Analysis

August 27, 2009

By Robert Tuttle Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — A decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index below its 200-month average would probably signal an additional slump of as much as 6.5 percent, according to Chicago-based Technical Analytics Inc. The measure finished at 1,028.12 yesterday. That’s 1.2 percent more than 1,015.58, its average close on the 26th day of the past 200 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Falling below that level would presage a drop to about 990, said Al Bicoff , the president of Technical Analytics. If that is breached, the S&P 500 might slip to 950, he added. The S&P 500 plunged 25 percent from the start of the year through March 9 before rallying 52 percent in the steepest advance since the Great Depression. The index has traded higher than its 200-day moving average since July 13 and rose 17 percent above it yesterday, the most since April 1999. That distance has increased the importance of the 200-month average, which is less studied by analysts, Bicoff said. “You have to look at the bigger picture now,” Bicoff said. “You are way above the 200-day now. The 200-day doesn’t have any significance at these price levels.” The S&P 500’s current 200-month moving average is also significant because it’s near 1,014.14, the so-called 38.2 percent retracement level for the bear market that began in October 2007, Bicoff said. Fibonacci analysts, who use a system pioneered by 13th-century mathematician Leonardo Pisano, make forecasts based on how an index performs when it recovers 38.2 percent or 61.8 percent of a retreat. To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Tuttle in Doha, Qatar at rtuttle@bloomberg.net .

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Initial Jobless Claims in U.S. Decreased Last Week (Update1)

August 27, 2009

By Shobhana Chandra Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — Fewer Americans filed claims for jobless benefits last week, another sign the economy is pulling out of the worst recession since the 1930s. Applications fell by 10,000 to 570,000, a higher level than forecast, in the week ended Aug. 22 from a revised 580,000 the week before, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. The total number of people collecting unemployment insurance fell to the lowest level since April. Companies’ staff cuts are easing as government stimulus measures help stabilize the housing and manufacturing industries. At the same time, a rebound in hiring will take longer to occur, restraining the consumer spending that accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. “The labor market is improving,” David Sloan , a senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, said before the report. “The economy is returning to growth, but employment and consumer spending are going to remain weak for some time.” Economists forecast claims would fall to 565,000 from a previously reported 576,000, according to the median of 41 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 540,000 to 580,000. A separate report from the Commerce Department showed the U.S. economy contracted less than forecast in the second quarter as a jump in government spending and smaller cutbacks by consumers helped mitigate a record plunge in inventories. No Revision Gross domestic product shrank at a 1 percent annual rate from April to June, the same as estimated last month, the department said today in Washington. The report also showed corporate profits climbed by the most in four years. The jobless claims report showed the four-week moving average of initial applications, a less volatile measure, dropped to 566,250 last week from 571,000. Continuing claims plunged by 119,000 in the week ended Aug. 15 to 6.13 million, the least since the week ended April 4. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, fell to 4.6 percent in the week ended Aug. 15, from 4.7 percent the prior week. Forty states and territories reported a decrease in claims, while 13 showed an increase. These data are reported with a one- week lag. Initial jobless claims reflect weekly firings and tend to rise as job growth — measured by the monthly non-farm payrolls report — slows. 6.7 Million While the economy has lost 6.7 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007, the most of any slump in the post-World War II era, firings are abating. The 247,000 drop in payrolls reported for July was the smallest in almost a year and lower than economists projected. Businesses announcing staff reductions this month included Accenture Ltd., the world’s second-largest technology-consulting firm. The Hamilton, Bermuda-based company said Aug. 20 it will cut about 7 percent of its senior executive positions, at least 336 jobs. Companies are watching to see what impact job losses elsewhere will have on their sales. Tesoro Corp., the largest independent refiner in the western U.S., this week said gasoline demand may lag behind an economic recovery because consumers will need to return to work before they return to the pumps. “We’re waiting on employment, which is a lagging indicator,” said Lynn Westfall , chief economist at San Antonio- based Tesoro. Improvements in economic growth and global trade will likely occur before job gains resume, spurring demand for refined fuels, he said in an interview. To contact the reporters on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington schandra1@bloomberg.net

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Milan Swaps Under Criminal Probe by Prosecutor Pursuing Banks

August 27, 2009

By Vernon Silver and Elisa Martinuzzi Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) –In June 2005, Milan’s city council voted to hire four banks to arrange Europe’s biggest-ever municipal bond sale at a fee of just 0.01 percent. That minuscule cost puzzled one councilman. “I had a hunch something was wrong,” says Basilio Rizzo, one of 14 politicians on the 60-member council who tried to change the deal after becoming suspicious of the banks’ motives. “Banks can’t do things for free.” Rizzo was onto something. Depfa Bank Plc, now a unit of Hypo Real Estate Holding AG; Deutsche Bank AG; JPMorgan Chase & Co. ; and UBS AG charged Milan 168,532 euros ($239,189) to find investors for 1.69 billion euros of bonds — the promised 0.01 percent. That wasn’t all. As part of the deal, the same four banks were hired by the city to advise it on how to use the new bonds to restructure its existing debt in a way that would cut costs. The banks had two pieces of advice for Milan: First, the city could save money by buying interest-rate swaps, which are derivatives designed to keep monthly payments low as rates change. Second, the institutions best prepared to sell them those swaps were none other than the banks themselves. The four banks thus play four roles — as underwriters, advisers, swap dealers and counterparties in the derivative contracts. Undisclosed Fees The group of banks wrote in a June 3, 2005, letter that the bond issue would save Milan about 55 million euros over the 30- year life of the bonds. The firms never said what their fees on the swaps would be, public records show. Today, Milan faces so-called mark-to-market losses of 231 million euros on its swaps, according to council member Davide Corritore. In all, the city’s losses include at least 101 million euros in hidden fees, according to Milan prosecutor Alfredo Robledo , who’s investigating the swap deals. The fees were buried because they were built into swap interest rates without any written explanation, the prosecutor says. That 101 million euro price tag for Milan’s dealings with the four banks was 599 times the original figure of 0.01 percent for selling bonds and providing advice. Without seeking competitive bids, the city agreed on June 16, 2005, to let the four banks sell them swap contracts. Neither the new swap rates nor the costs associated with them had been part of the original vote by the city council. Seeking Indictment Robledo said in July he would ask Milan judges to indict Depfa, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, UBS and 14 individuals, including two city officials, on fraud charges in connection with the swap deals. He said the banks were bound by U.K. securities rules because their London-based bankers managed the transaction, which was signed in London. The banks violated regulations by failing to inform Milan in writing that for the swap deal the city was no longer a customer, but a counterparty to the banks, Robledo said. Banks are required to shield customers from conflicts of interest and provide them with clear and fair information that isn’t misleading. The banks had agreed to abide by those rules. The soured Milan swap deals are part of a string of such transactions that have stung local authorities. The Italian Finance Ministry, through its Financial Police unit, is examining contracts worth 9.11 billion euros signed by 46 cities and regions, according to a June 10 report. Global Phenomenon The city of Turin, combined with the surrounding region of Piedmont, had a total of 2 billion euros of swap contracts outstanding. Turin and Piedmont had lost 214 million euros combined on their swaps, according to Italy’s state-owned RAI television network. Italy’s tales of swaps, losses and conflicts of interest are part of a global phenomenon in which local governments have signed contracts they had hoped would lower their debt payments. In many cases, taxpayers later discovered the swap deals held risks and expenses that their elected and appointed officials didn’t expect or understand and that banks hadn’t disclosed. In September 2008, JPMorgan closed its municipal derivatives unit in New York almost two years after the U.S. Justice Department began its largest-ever criminal investigation of public financing. Prosecutors sent letters to five JPMorgan bankers saying they were likely to be indicted. No charges have been filed, and JPMorgan declined to comment. Jefferson County, Alabama, the state’s most populous county, has been on the verge of bankruptcy for more than a year because $3 billion in swaps meant to lower its borrowing costs backfired and credit ratings for its bond insurers were lowered. More Losses Italian government bodies with swap contracts, from mountaintop towns to entire regions, have so far seen losses on paper of at least 1.93 billion euros, according to data from the Rome-based Bank of Italy. After suffering losses, some countries, including Poland and the U.K., have restricted municipalities from engaging in derivative transactions. In mid-2008, Italy temporarily banned public derivative contracts. “Municipalities and local governments around the world have target signs painted on them for bankers,” says Satyajit Das , a former derivative banker at Citigroup Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. and author of “Traders, Guns & Money” (FT Press, 2006). “They’re generally not financially sophisticated, and they’re under pressure to raise money,” Das says. “And nobody in the derivative business is willing to actually be truthful.” Low Odds Cities and regions worldwide that have entered swap deals were bound to lose from the start, says Marcello Minenna. The head of quantitative analysis at Consob, Italy’s financial market regulator, Minenna holds a master’s degree in financial mathematics from New York’s Columbia University and a doctorate in applied math from Universita degli Studi di Brescia. He analyzed a typical municipal interest-rate-swap contract with terms that were representative of those issued around Italy in the past few years. He found the odds of a locality’s benefiting from such a deal on the day the contract was signed were 0.16 percent. Minenna, 37, showed how these likely day-one outcomes allow banks to build hidden fees into swap contracts and said banks could easily disclose them to clients. Banks included such hidden or implicit costs in swap contracts that Milan and other cities signed to switch fixed interest rates on loans to floating ones, Das says. Concealed Fees Banks that drafted the contracts were able to conceal the fees by calculating them into the new, variable yield . They also set limits on how high or low the rate could go, known as the cap and the floor. Interest-rate swaps require a municipality and bank to exchange payments as frequently as every month. Each participant in a swap contract is called a counterparty. Banks tell governments that swaps are intended to save the public money. The amounts that change hands are based on various global lending rates. Bankers set swap terms to their advantage without telling clients by using computer programs that project likely future rates that signal what the odds are of profiting from any combination of yields, floors and caps, Minenna says. “Even when interest rates change, the government entities don’t benefit from lower rates because of limits built into the contracts,” Minenna said at a June 12 presentation in Rome to Italian municipal administrators who’d gathered for a conference on derivatives. ‘Just Gets Worse’ “The local government’s position, in terms of the costs and the ability to renegotiate, just gets worse,” he said. To exit an unfavorable swap deal, a city has to pay its current liability from the contract to the bank. If a municipality sticks with the deal, it keeps paying predetermined rates that may be to its disadvantage. That’s the fix the Umbrian city of Polino, population 290, finds itself in. In 2005, it swapped an average fixed rate of 4.65 percent on its 547,367 euro loans for a variable rate that could go no lower than 4.3 percent and no higher than 7.16 percent. From the moment the hilltop town’s officials signed the contract, Polino was out 11,000 euros in an upfront fee that wasn’t disclosed in the agreement, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. When prevailing interest rates later decreased, the contract’s floor prevented the city from benefiting. The city has lost as much as 27,000 euros on the deal, which is the amount it would have to pay to cancel the contract. Stopped Payments For a city that size, that amount covers the cost of fixing and cleaning streets for a year. So the city decided not to pay the bank anything and await the outcome of the Milan dispute. Polino Mayor Ortenzio Matteucci says he agreed to the deal because other, bigger cities had entered into swap contracts. “I thought, ‘Can the Province of Terni and all the other municipalities bigger than us, such as Milan, all be wrong?’” says Matteucci, 59, a retired steelworker. The Milan case has led to a public swap showdown with hundreds of millions of euros at stake. The city sued the four banks in January, alleging they hid profits on the sales. And the Financial Police, acting on prosecutor Robledo’s behalf, seized 345 million euros in assets from the banks’ Italian accounts on April 27, pending resolution of the cases. Negotiated Return The banks have since negotiated the return of some of the assets after agreeing to a cash guarantee for an amount equal to each bank’s share of the 101 million euros in allegedly hidden profits from the swaps. Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank and Zurich-based UBS argued in civil court in Milan that the city was aware of fees charged on contracts for derivatives. “The city of Milan was a sophisticated counterparty which fully understood the nature of its transactions with JPMorgan,” bank spokesman David Wells says. “We are vigorously defending the legal proceedings brought by the city and are confident that the strength of our legal position will ultimately be demonstrated through the judicial process,” he says. “JPMorgan further considers that the JPMorgan employees involved in the transactions acted with the highest degree of professionalism and entirely appropriately.” Deutsche Bank says it did nothing wrong. “We believe that our case is compelling and will prevail,” the bank says. “We are also confident that our employees involved in the transactions acted with integrity.” Market Rate The fact that Milan already had derivatives meant the city was sophisticated in such transactions, a lawyer representing UBS says. Milan officials understood the four banks’ potential conflicts of interest, and the banks gave the city a market rate for the swaps, the lawyer says. Officials at Munich-based Hypo Real Estate and officials for the city of Milan declined to comment. Milan’s recent journey through the opaque world of interest-rate swaps began in January 2005, when bankers from JPMorgan sent letters to the city suggesting ways to refinance Milan’s debt. At the time, Milan owed about 1.2 billion euros in variable-rate mortgages at an average cost of six-month Euribor plus 0.26 percent. It also held 524 million euros of fixed-rate mortgages at an average cost of 5.16 percent, according to transcripts of council meetings. Some of those mortgages were accompanied by swaps the city had entered into three years earlier with another bank, Milan- based UniCredit SpA , Italy’s biggest lender. Closing Swaps In letters to Giorgio Porta , Milan’s director general, JPMorgan bankers Antonia Creanza and Antonio Polverino argued the town could save money by selling new debt. JPMorgan said that would pay off the liability while taking into account the need to close previous swaps, court documents show. Robledo has said he’s also seeking to indict Porta for fraud and collusion for his role in helping to oversee the debt restructuring. A lawyer for Porta declined to comment. Robledo said in his asset seizure request that it’s significant that the banks’ early pitches discussed the process of unwinding old derivatives. Later correspondence, after Milan selected the four banks, didn’t discuss those costs — an omission the prosecutor says was part of the alleged fraud. As the banks’ proposals made their way from Porta to other members of the city’s governing council, or giunta, the elected officials chose to take advantage of the chance to save on their debt by pushing out payments over a longer time period. Re-Election The city was about 100 million euros short of its budget target that year after plans to sell a stake in Milan airport company SEA SpA had been blocked by a court. Giunta members were coming up for re-election the following year, and cutting expenses wasn’t a viable option, according to a January deposition by Porta. The city opted instead to refinance. On May 3, 2005, members of the giunta voted to hold a competitive tender to select banks for the refinancing. Citing the potential for savings from eliminating payments on existing debt, the giunta vowed to replace existing mortgages provided “the entire transaction is financially advantageous,” according to a deliberation cited by the prosecutor. The city gave banks a week to pitch for the role, city documents show. Milan judged the contenders based on experience in managing other municipal bond sales, as well as their fees for selling both 20- and 30-year debt. Didn’t Ask While the city also sought the banks’ derivatives credentials, it didn’t ask how much the swap contracts would cost the taxpayer. On May 20, bankers gathered at Milan’s Palazzo della Ragioneria, a municipal building across the road from La Scala Opera House, to hear the announcement of the winning bids, says council member Rizzo. Milan selected Depfa, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan and UBS. All four agreed to charge the lowest fee that had been proposed, the 0.01 percent Depfa had bid, public records show. The next day, council member Rizzo, 62, a bespectacled, graying nuclear physicist who has served on the Milan council since 1983, started raising objections to the process. He told the council that the winning offer, with the 0.01 percent commission, was essentially free, so the process must be flawed. “I’d like to point out that in the coming three-year period, the benefit would be 174.1 million euros,” the late Mario Talamona, who was then Milan’s budget commissioner, told the city council, according to a transcript of the June 13, 2005, council meeting. ‘Who Will Run It?’ Rizzo remained skeptical, meeting records show. The following day, at a June 14 council session, he asked: “Will there be a tender for the swap? Who will run it? How will our counterparties be chosen? Wouldn’t it have been more useful to have a tender on that?” Rizzo now says, “There needs to be a separation between those that are advising the city’s administration and those who act as counterparties in derivative transactions.” The tiny commission should have raised a danger alert, says Piero Burragato, a former derivatives banker at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson and Nomura Holdings Inc. who hasn’t been involved in the Milan transactions. “An underwriting fee of 0.01 percent looks unreasonably low indeed, particularly so in relation to the underwriting risk of a fixed-rate, 30-year bond,” says Milan-based Burragato, who now advises companies on restructuring. Comparative Fees Similar deals in Italy in the same period have carried fees of 0.3 and 0.45 percent of the face value of the bonds. Without derivatives, the transaction couldn’t have been done. The 30-year bonds themselves needed swaps because Italian laws, intended to keep municipalities solvent, prohibit a city from pushing off its obligations so far into the future. What’s more, if Milan replaced its mortgages with a bond, the city would need to dispose of its existing swaps. When the banks gave Milan officials their overview of the deal’s financial benefit to the city, they didn’t mention the swaps, according to court records. The banks sold the bonds on June 24, 2005. That day, during a meeting at Deutsche Bank’s London office, Milan finance director Angela Casiraghi first learned the financial details of the swaps; the banks had never addressed potential losses, she says now. “They always said that the city, at the end of the 30 years, would have saved,” Casiraghi said in a Jan. 19, 2009, deposition in prosecutor Robledo’s investigation. ‘Never Showed’ “They never showed the potential problem of a negative mark-to-market,” meaning that based on current interest rates, Milan could lose money under the contract, forcing the city to pay the banks if they ever needed to exit the deal. Three days after the bond sale, Milan and the four banks signed the swap contracts related to the bonds. Three months later, as Milan used the bond proceeds to pay off its old mortgages, the four banks oversaw the second derivative deal: the unwinding of the swaps related to those old loans. At the time, those swaps had a value of 96 million euros in favor of the bank, UBI, a unit of UniCredit. To get out of the swaps, Milan would have to compensate UBI by that amount. The prosecutor hasn’t accused UniCredit of any wrongdoing. The city did it in parts: Milan paid UBI 20 million euros. The group of four banks absorbed 48 million euros, using extra, hidden fees it had taken from Milan in the bond-related swap contracts, prosecutor Robledo says. Hidden Cost And Milan paid off the final 28 million euros by rolling that debt over into another derivative contract with UBI, which charged the city 2 million euros, or 7.14 percent, in a new implicit fee, Robledo found. Robledo learned the amount of that hidden cost because he has access to the financial records of the Italian bank, which booked the implicit fee as revenue. In mid-2007, Robledo began his probe of the four banks, the bankers and some city employees. The prosecutor had been steeped in high-profile investigations before. He assisted former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker in probing kickbacks in the United Nations oil-for-food scandal. And he has pursued a case against Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi for false accounting and embezzlement. The three-time premier has fought off the charges, which have been temporarily suspended, partly because allies in parliament passed an immunity law in 2008 shielding him from prosecution. Bellwether As Robledo prepares to bring the banks to trial, local government officials around Italy are watching the case as a potential bellwether, saying they hope it might lead to improved terms for their derivative deals. Magenta , a town of 25,000 residents just outside Milan, is one of many municipalities that have lost money on swap deals — and now is looking to its larger neighbor for help. In 2001, Magenta bought interest-rate swaps from Caboto Holding SIM SpA, which is now a unit of Milan-based Intesa Sanpaolo SpA , on 4.6 million euros in fixed-rate loans. Magenta then restructured the deal in 2005 and 2006, signing similar contracts with the same bank. “The problem is that there’s never been an adviser, and our contact at the bank essentially took on the role as our consultant,” says Diana Naverio, director general of the city of Magenta. “This is the conflict of interest that’s talked about. There was never an objective third party.” Crimp Plans Magenta has a mark-to-market loss of about 120,000 euros, according to Naverio, down from about 900,000 euros a year ago. The possibility of future losses may crimp the city’s ability to plan, says Luca Del Gobbo, Magenta’s mayor. In the past year, Magenta has sought to round up 19 municipalities from three northern provinces and consulted with a lawyer in efforts to force banks to renegotiate the current deals. “One town against the bank probably can’t get anything better,” Del Gobbo says. “But we’re banding together under the slogan we’ve adopted: ‘He who with harmful derivatives flourishes, with collective legal action perishes.’” What happens next — in Magenta or hundreds of other Italian cities — depends on Milan. Das, the former derivatives trader, says the four banks are likely to settle with Milan prosecutors. That agreement may leave swap practices worldwide unchanged. So, he says, he expects municipal officials will continue to hand over money to banks in deals they don’t understand. “Cities still think they can get money for nothing,” he says. “The bankers are laughing.” To contact the reporters on this story: Vernon Silver in Rome at vtsilver@bloomberg.net ; Elisa Martinuzzi in Milan at emartinuzzi@bloomberg.net

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Obama Channeling Reagan Needs 5 Quarters of 7% GDP Growth for New Morning

August 27, 2009

By Michael McKee Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama , like Ronald Reagan , has decided to keep a Federal Reserve chairman after what at the time was the longest recession since the 1930s. Unlike Reagan, Obama probably won’t get a strong recovery, or the political boost that it brings. Under Fed Chairman Paul Volcker , the economy grew at a more than 7 percent annual rate for five straight quarters following the 1981-1982 recession. Reagan, after reappointing Volcker in 1983 and declaring “it’s morning again in America,” won 49 of 50 states in the following year’s election. Obama is putting his trust in Ben S. Bernanke ahead of time, nominating him to a second four-year term even though the recession isn’t officially over. Growth is forecast to average just 2.2 percent over the next year, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists this month. “It’s going to be much, much tougher to jump-start the economy now,” said Stephen Roach , chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia in Hong Kong, who in 1983 was in the first year of his career as a Wall Street economist. “It’s a totally different dynamic playing out today in our post-bubble, overly leveraged world.” Obama praised Bernanke for “bold action and out-of-the-box thinking that has helped put the brakes on our economic freefall” in nominating him Aug. 25, and went on to discuss his plans to overhaul health care and promote clean energy. Spearheading that agenda is Lawrence Summers , director of the White House National Economic Council, who worked as an adviser in the Reagan White House in 1983. Congressional Elections There’s little more that Bernanke and Summers can do to deliver additional fiscal or monetary stimulus before the 2010 congressional elections with interest rates already near zero and the budget deficit projected to rise to a record $1.6 trillion this year, economists say. “The results of the mid-term election next year will be critical in terms of Obama’s ability to push through his programs,” said William Poole , former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, who was a member of the Council of Economic Advisers in 1983. The economy contracted by 3.9 percent during the latest recession, which started in December 2007, more than the 2.9 percent decline of 1981-1982. Even the most optimistic member of the Fed’s policy-making Open Market Committee predicts growth of no more than 4.6 percent two years from now, in 2011, when unemployment will finally fall below 9 percent. Withdrawing Stimulus Bernanke must worry about withdrawing stimulus to avoid reigniting inflation after doubling the Fed’s balance sheet to more than $2 trillion, said William Niskanen , a member of Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers. “Bernanke is going to have to take money out of the economy,” Niskanen said. That was a problem Volcker didn’t face. Consumer spending will remain anemic, economists say. Personal incomes, which rose through the 1981-1982 recession, have fallen 1.7 percent since the current slump began. From a peak in the second quarter of 2006, average home prices are down more than 30 percent, removing a potential source of cash for consumers. “It’s a rather worrisome situation,” said Lyle Gramley , senior adviser to New York-based Soleil Securities, who was a member of Volcker’s Fed board of governors from 1980 to 1985. “What we need now is a lot of prayer.” Credit Crunch Americans who are willing to borrow and spend are finding it harder to get credit. The Fed reported last week that banks continued to tighten standards on all types of loans in the second quarter, and expect to maintain strict lending criteria until at least the second half of 2010. “We didn’t have the kind of credit-crunch problems we face this time,” Gramley said. “Credit markets are still a long way from being healed. We don’t have the willingness to lend you need to get recovery.” Austan Goolsbee , a member of Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, said one of the top priorities for the administration and the Fed is finding a way “to reignite the credit markets so we can get businesses able to access credit and banks lending again.” The situation was different under Volcker, who waged war on inflation by raising Fed’s benchmark lending rate to 20 percent in early 1981, pushing the unemployment rate up to 10.8 percent in the process and risking a political backlash. ‘Explaining Why’ “I spent a lot of time writing members of Congress, explaining why we had to do it,” said James Glassman , a senior economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York who worked at the Fed from 1979 to 1988. By 1983, Volcker had won his battle. Annual consumer price inflation had collapsed to 2.5 percent in July 1983 from 14.8 percent in March 1980. The central bank was lowering interest rates. Reagan had signed a 25 percent across-the-board tax cut. Unemployment was falling. Reagan announced Volcker’s reappointment on June 18, 1983. Three weeks later, the National Bureau of Economic Research declared the recession had ended the previous November after 16 months — matching the duration of the 1973-1975 slump as the longest since the Great Depression. “There was a feeling that we would have a V-shaped recovery with strong GDP growth,” recalled Niskanen, who is now chairman emeritus of the Cato Institute in Washington, a policy research group. “We were not discouraged by the conditions. Reagan was almost incurably optimistic.” His optimism was well placed. The economy took off, growing by 5.1 percent in the first quarter of 1983. Growth reached 9.3 percent in the second quarter of that year and averaged 7.9 percent in the following 12 months. “Once the economy started soaring we moved ahead in the polls and never looked back,” said Ed Rollins , Reagan’s 1984 campaign director. “Obama will stay popular,” Rollins said. “But if we’re still talking about the economy two years from now it’s going to be very difficult for him.” To contact the reporter on this story: Michael McKee in New York at mmckee@bloomberg.net .

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Stanford’s Private-Equity Stakes to Be Sold Over His Objection, Judge Says

August 27, 2009

By Laurel Brubaker Calkins and Andrew M. Harris Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — R. Allen Stanford ’s investments in an Israeli development fund and a luxury Houston hotel can be sold immediately, over objections from the financier that he hasn’t been convicted of any wrongdoing, a federal judge ruled. Court-appointed receiver Ralph Janvey won approval to sell several pieces of Stanford’s private-equity portfolio on an emergency basis to avoid meeting capital calls or diluting the investments, according to an order posted yesterday by U.S. District Judge David Godbey in Dallas. The transactions “are in the best interest of the receivership estate,” the judge wrote. Stanford is fighting criminal and civil allegations that he defrauded investors of more than $7 billion through the sale of bogus certificates of deposit at Antigua-based Stanford International Bank Ltd. He had urged Godbey to block the sales. The Texas financier, who is in jail awaiting trial, complained Janvey is selling his investments at steeply discounted prices and increasing investor losses by failing to let the stakes mature. Janvey asked Godbey’s permission to sell Stanford’s share of the Israeli fund and the Houston hotel after receiving offers from other limited partners already participating in each project. Financial Advisers Janvey, in a separate filing yesterday, asked Godbey to continue freezing millions of dollars in brokerage accounts belonging to former Stanford Group Co. financial advisers. The brokers asked Godbey last month to unlock their funds, which have been frozen since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued Stanford and several of his executives and companies on Feb. 17. The brokers told the judge they need to pay living expenses and hire lawyers to defend claims they knowingly sold fraudulent CDs. Earlier this week, Allen Stanford’s lawyers asked Godbey to reject Janvey’s request for payment of $7.6 million in additional legal fees and expenses, from estate assets. The receivership is consuming money at a rate of $6,500 an hour, lawyers for the financier said. Janvey has asked the court for about $27.5 million to cover his work as Stanford’s receiver through the end of May. The criminal case is U.S. v. Stanford, 09cr342, U.S. District Court, Southern District of Texas (Houston). The SEC case is Securities and Exchange Commission v. Stanford International Bank, 09cv298, U.S. District Court, Northern District of Texas (Dallas). To contact the reporters on this story: Laurel Brubaker Calkins in Houston at laurel@calkins.us.com ; Andrew M. Harris in Chicago at aharris16@bloomberg.net .

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Housing Data Point to Market Turnaround as Buyers Help Buoy U.S. Economy

August 27, 2009

By Kathleen M. Howley Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — The worst U.S. housing market since the Great Depression may be on the mend after prices rose in 18 of 20 U.S. cities in June, existing home sales hit a two-year high, and new home sales gained for a fourth consecutive month. “The sense that something is changing is definitely in the air,” said Robert Shiller, the Yale University professor who, with economist Karl Case, created home price indexes in the 1980s now used by Standard & Poor’s. “After three years of decline, we might be seeing a turnaround.” Lower home prices and government stimulus efforts have spurred demand and pared the supply of existing homes to the fewest in two years, while sending new-home inventory to a 16- year low. Real estate sales buttress consumer spending , which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, because new owners tend to buy appliances, drapes and furniture. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, which tracks 20 metropolitan areas, showed a gain in 18 cities during June, according to an Aug. 25 report. Detroit and Las Vegas were the only two that declined. The Federal Housing Finance Agency national index showed a 0.5 percent increase during June with increases in five out of nine U.S. regions, according to an Aug. 25 government report. “Evidence is mounting that the worst of the economic downturn is behind us,” Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said yesterday in a speech in Chattanooga, Tennessee. “The beginning stages of recovery are underway.” ‘Serious Downturn’ Other federal officials are less optimistic. The jobless rate, which hit 9.5 percent in June before dipping to 9.4 percent last month, may rise to 10 percent by the end of 2009, according to an Aug. 25 report by the White House Office of Management and Budget. “While the danger of the economy immediately falling into a deep recession has receded, the American economy is still in the midst of a serious economic downturn,” the report said. About 26 percent of U.S. homes with a mortgage were worth less than the amount owed, according to a Deutsche Bank AG report this month. Deutsche Bank analysts Karen Weaver and Ying Shen forecast that by the end of the year, as many as 48 percent of mortgages may be “underwater.” That means few homeowners will be able to refinance or take home equity loans to get cash. Leading the Way Residential construction and home sales led the way out of the previous seven recessions going back to 1960, according to David Berson, chief economist of PMI Group, a mortgage insurer in Walnut Creek, California. Home resales gained strength an average four months before the end of a recession, single-family housing starts improved for seven months, and new-home sales grew for eight months. Improvements in the unemployment rate lagged behind the start of a recovery by an average six months, according to Berson, the former chief economist of Washington-based Fannie Mae. Existing home sales already have reached that marker, gaining for the last four months. Single-family housing starts improved for the last five months, two months short of the recovery average, and new-home sales jumped 9.6 percent in July, the most in four years, halfway toward the average eight months of consecutive gains before the onset of economic improvement. Purchases of new homes in July jumped 9.6 percent, more than forecast and the biggest increase in four years, to a 433,000 annual pace, figures from the Commerce Department showed yesterday in Washington. Economists had estimated new home sales would increase to a 390,000 rate, according to the median of 71 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. July’s sales pace was the highest in 10 months and exceeded all estimates, which ranged from 365,000 to 420,000. Tax Credit Some of the gain was fueled by a tax credit of as much as $8,000 for first-time buyers and mortgage rates set artificially low because of the Federal Reserve’s purchases of mortgage- backed securities, said Nicolas Retsinas, director of housing studies at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts. “Will this be sustainable over the long term?” Retsinas said. “That remains to be seen.” The median price of a new home decreased 12 percent to $210,100 from $237,300 in July 2008. Sales of new homes were down 13 percent from a year earlier. The jump in new-home sales was led by a 32 percent surge in the Northeast. Purchases increased 16 percent in the South and 1 percent in the West. They dropped 7.6 percent in the Midwest. Builders had 271,000 houses on the market last month, down 35 percent from July 2008 and the fewest since March 1993. It would take 7.5 months to sell all homes at the current sales pace, the shortest time since April 2007. Existing Home Sales U.S. sales of existing homes jumped more than forecast in July to the highest level in almost two years, according to the National Association of Realtors. Purchases climbed 7.2 percent to an annual rate of 5.24 million, the most since August 2007, according to an Aug. 21 report by the Chicago-based realtors group. The gain was the biggest since records began in 1999. Home prices probably will fall 13 percent in the current quarter compared with the drop of 16 percent from April through June, the realtors group said in a forecast on its Web site . Price declines may slow to 2 percent in the fourth quarter before gaining 2.3 percent in the first three months of 2010, the realtors group said. To contact the reporter on this story: Kathleen M. Howley in Boston at kmhowley@bloomberg.net .

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U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Drop to 570,000 in Sign Recession Is Abating

August 27, 2009

By Shobhana Chandra Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — Fewer Americans filed claims for jobless benefits last week, another sign the economy is pulling out of the worst recession since the 1930s. Applications fell by 10,000 to 570,000, a higher level than forecast, in the week ended Aug. 22 from a revised 580,000 the week before, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. The total number of people collecting unemployment insurance fell to the lowest level since April. Companies’ staff cuts are easing as government stimulus measures help stabilize the housing and manufacturing industries. At the same time, a rebound in hiring will take longer to occur, restraining the consumer spending that accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. “The labor market is improving,” David Sloan , a senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, said before the report. “The economy is returning to growth, but employment and consumer spending are going to remain weak for some time.” Economists forecast claims would fall to 565,000 from a previously reported 576,000, according to the median of 41 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 540,000 to 580,000. A separate report from the Commerce Department showed the U.S. economy contracted less than forecast in the second quarter as a jump in government spending and smaller cutbacks by consumers helped mitigate a record plunge in inventories. No Revision Gross domestic product shrank at a 1 percent annual rate from April to June, the same as estimated last month, the department said today in Washington. The report also showed corporate profits climbed by the most in four years. The jobless claims report showed the four-week moving average of initial applications, a less volatile measure, dropped to 566,250 last week from 571,000. Continuing claims plunged by 119,000 in the week ended Aug. 15 to 6.13 million, the least since the week ended April 4. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, fell to 4.6 percent in the week ended Aug. 15, from 4.7 percent the prior week. Forty states and territories reported a decrease in claims, while 13 showed an increase. These data are reported with a one- week lag. Initial jobless claims reflect weekly firings and tend to rise as job growth — measured by the monthly non-farm payrolls report — slows. 6.7 Million While the economy has lost 6.7 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007, the most of any slump in the post-World War II era, firings are abating. The 247,000 drop in payrolls reported for July was the smallest in almost a year and lower than economists projected. Businesses announcing staff reductions this month included Accenture Ltd., the world’s second-largest technology-consulting firm. The Hamilton, Bermuda-based company said Aug. 20 it will cut about 7 percent of its senior executive positions, at least 336 jobs. Companies are watching to see what impact job losses elsewhere will have on their sales. Tesoro Corp., the largest independent refiner in the western U.S., this week said gasoline demand may lag behind an economic recovery because consumers will need to return to work before they return to the pumps. “We’re waiting on employment, which is a lagging indicator,” said Lynn Westfall , chief economist at San Antonio- based Tesoro. Improvements in economic growth and global trade will likely occur before job gains resume, spurring demand for refined fuels, he said in an interview. To contact the reporters on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington schandra1@bloomberg.net

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Economy in U.S. Shrank 1% in Second Quarter, Less Than Economists Forecast

August 27, 2009

By Timothy R. Homan

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Adjustable Rate Mortgages Could Dampen Economic Recovery

August 27, 2009

When Harvey Clavon took out an exotic mortgage to refinance his home in Santa Clarita, Calif., three years ago, he thought he knew what he was doing.

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Nearly Nine Percent Of Southwest Fleet Uses Unapproved Parts; FAA Investigating

August 27, 2009

DALLAS — Federal officials say a maintenance company hired by Southwest Airlines used unapproved parts for repairs on some jets. The parts will have to be replaced, but as they are not considered an immediate safety threat regulators will let Southwest keep flying the planes for 10 days – until next Tuesday – while it decides how to fix the problem. Southwest said Wednesday that the incident led it to ground 46 planes – nearly 9 percent of its fleet – for several hours last Saturday. That led to 15 canceled flights and widespread delays – Southwest said its on-time performance fell to 68 percent, down from 78 percent in June, the last month for which government statistics are available. An investigator for the Federal Aviation Administration raised questions about the parts during an inspection Friday of a facility that maintains planes for Southwest. The parts, called exhaust gate assembly hinge fittings, are used in deflecting hot engine exhaust away from wing flaps. Southwest uses only Boeing 737 aircraft, which have an engine on each wing. The maintenance company, which was not identified by Southwest or the FAA, used hinge assemblies made by a subcontractor who is not certified to make the parts, according to the agency. That led to discussions Friday night between Southwest, Boeing Co. and the FAA about what to do next, but the airline really had no choice. Federal regulations prohibit knowingly operating a plane with unapproved parts, so Southwest grounded planes that had received the hinge fittings. By late Saturday, engineers determined that the use of the parts didn’t pose an immediate safety danger, so the FAA let Southwest use the planes temporarily. “The parts have to come off the planes, it’s just a matter of how quickly that has to be done,” said FAA spokesman Lynn Lunsford. “Unapproved parts don’t belong on airplanes.” Lunsford said late Wednesday that FAA officials were still talking with Southwest about the situation. He said it was too early to know whether Southwest would face any penalties. Southwest spokeswoman Beth Harbin said the issue hinged on the documentation of repairs on the part by a vendor that does maintenance for the airline. Harbin said she didn’t know of previous concerns about the repairs. The FAA cracked down on use of unapproved parts in aircraft in the 1990s and reduced their use, said Thomas Anthony, who led FAA investigations into the practice and is now director of the aviation safety program at the University of Southern California. Anthony said unapproved parts are a potential safety hazard because they haven’t been tested to see if they will hold up when working alongside other components on the plane. “A part is not just a part,” he said. No matter who made the hinge fittings, Anthony said, it’s the airline’s responsibility to ensure that only FAA-approved parts go on its planes. In March, Dallas-based Southwest agreed to pay $7.5 million to settle FAA allegations that the airline made nearly 60,000 flights on planes that had missed required examinations for structural cracks and flew them 1,450 times even after being notified of the missed inspections. Federal safety officials are also investigating an incident in June in which a foot-long hole opened in the top of a Southwest jet bound from Nashville to Baltimore, forcing the pilot to make an emergency landing in West Virginia. There were no injuries. Government records indicated that eight cracks in the frame required repairs in January. Southwest Airlines Co. carries more than 100 million U.S. passengers a year, more than any other airline. Southwest shares fell 8 cents to close at $8.60 Wednesday.

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Sophie Pollitt-Cohen: Reselling Things That Already Exist

August 27, 2009

Lately I’ve had advertising on the brain. I rented billboard space on my cerebral cortex for Gold’s Gym. But also, I’m been thinking about marketing strategies a lot these days. It seems that advertising is a way to sell people things and thus make money. I love money! I have a plan: marketing to incredibly specific groups of weirdos. The New York Times ran an article on Tuesday about different products aimed at freaks who are way too into vampires. (I should probably just say “people who are into vampires,” because being into vampires at all is the same as being too into vampires.) These products are just regular stuff we already own, except their names are vampiric. Fang Floss is just regular floss. SunScream is sunblock, but they write “VPF” on it, which stands for “Vampire Protection Factor,” because “sun damage is the NO. 1 killer of the undead.” A close second is dog bites (the dogs have rabies). For a hot minute, I couldn’t decide if this strategy is the dumbest thing since “Keeping Up With The Kardashians” or if it’s pure genius. I was stuck with an uncomfortable in-between feeling. Then I realized that things can be both. For example, Keeping Up With The Kardashians is sometimes dumb and boring, but it is also awesome, and Kim Kardashian is pretty and wears great makeup. The show even has a baby show (“spinoff” if you’re in the biz), Kourtney and Khloe Take Miami. Stupid Smart Thigns (StuSmas when I’m in a hurry) have a habit of making a lot of money. I want in. Here are my ideas for other things that already exist that you can market to incredibly specific groups of people. Time Travel Tooth Toner This is aimed at people trying to figure out how to time travel. It’s toothpaste, but the tube is painted to look like a time machine (kind of like a car, but there’s an ancient Egyptian driving it.) Because what’s worse than showing up in caveman times and then realizing you forgot to bring toothpaste? Problem solved. Oats Breakfast for little kids who like pretending to be a pony. It’s oatmeal. Dog Food Vegetables. This is for kids who won’t eat their vegetables and who also like pretending to be a dog. It’s steamed broccoli and Brussels sprouts made to look like dog food. Luxurious Mulled Meade For people who go to Renaissance Fairs. It’s just Boone’s Farm in a plastic bottle, but the bottle looks really medieval. It’s covered in velvet, and there’s plastic gems on it. Philosopher’s Platter Trays of food to serve when you’re having a toga party and pretending to be at a symposium (and also you don’t really know the difference between Ancient Rome and Ancient Greece.) It’s really just grocery store platters of cheese (cut up string cheese), crackers (triscuits and wheat thins), and grapes (old grapes). Let yourself eat cake A fancy French looking cake for people who like Marie Antionette. Just get an Entenmann’s cake and stick one of those French flags on a toothpick in it. Ropin’ Pics These are for people who like pretending to be a cowboy. They’re toothpicks, but they’re in an old timey looking box with the font from the Wanted ads. Because nothing is more distracting than when you’re chasing down Injuns and then you realize you have some baked bean in your tooth. Sexy Pics These are for people who want to emulate P.Diddy in all his finery. They’re toothpicks in an all white box for when you’re at the White Party trying to talk to someone really rich and good looking, but you realize you have some expensive food in your teeth. Exhibit Bags For people obsessed with crime shows such as CSI or Law and Order SVU. Ziploc bags for you to store your “specimens” (leftovers) from “crime scenes” (dinner) Ancient Roman Deodorant Because Visigoths can smell fear. And the fact that you didn’t shower. It’s just regular deodorant. Magic: the soap Because nothing interrupts play like dirt. Really just use any kind of soap. It doesn’t matter. See how easy that is? See how difficult it is to think of things that are both moronic and awesome? It’s like the great Dolly Parton once said: you’d be surprised how much it costs to look this cheap. XOXO Sophie

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Steve Parker: "Clunker" program over, but private versions sprout

August 27, 2009

Washington’s CARS Program (the clunker law) is officially over, after moving somewhere between 700,0000 and 750,000 new cars and trucks off showroom floors. Considering your point-of-view, the program has been either a wild success or just another step on the way towards Obama Socialism (when will your neighborhood’s Clunker Panel show up at your front door and demand you get rid of your old car and buy a new one, and with the law on their side, too?). But something we predicted here weeks ago seems to be coming true: on their own, dealers are offering their own versions of the clunker program. I saw one TV ad yesterday in southern California for a local dealership offering up to $2,500 for a traded-in “clunker” (here’s a pertinent story we found: http://www.wkyc.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=120481 ). The parameters for these private programs will certainly be different from the federal program, so check carefully before getting involved in any deal you may not fully understand. These programs won’t be based on a 136-page law, as was CARS, but a much more casual way for buyers to feel better about their purchase. As of today (Thursday), no car-maker has yet jumped into the “private clunker” pool, but it won’t be a surprise when it happens (and we say it will). And any dealer or car-maker considering starting their own clunker operation must make their mind up to do so fast … the public has a way of forgetting what happened yesterday, much less last week, and jumping-in now will allow the dealer or manufacturer to take advantage of the great momentum the fed program has created. There’s no argument about this: CARS brought millions of people into dealerships who wouldn’t otherwise have been considering a new-car buy, and, consumer confidence has taken a jump in the past month, something analysts credit to the program putting a lot of us in the mood to buy. What these private programs really will be are enhanced rebate deals. There won’t be any rules about having to junk your old car, disable the engine, etc. The dealer (possibly with help from the car-maker) will just be tossing some more money on the hood of the old car you’re trading in. Let’s take a moment and quietly praise Lee Iacocca for his creation of the “buy a car, get a check” rebate … the industry’s first. He’d just been fired from his position as President of Ford Motor Company and quickly went cross-town to ailing Chrysler (for a salary of $1 a year), where a radical program like rebates turned out to be just what the doctor ordered. If you’re a car company or dealer exec, you might not feel so warm and fuzzy about Iacocca’s invention, which has become common in every retail industry worldwide. Consumers sure responded in a big way. And like rebate junkies, none of us expects to pay anything near the sticker price for a new car or truck anymore. Or just about anything else, for that matter. Which brings up one of the most closely-guarded secrets in all of industry and government: what it really costs to build a new car. For example, rumors said that once Ford had paid-off the development and tooling of the original Explorer SUV, which probably took between the initial two and three years of sales, the company was clearing something in the neighborhood of $15,000 on each unit sold. And at its height, Ford was selling more than 1,200 Explorers a day. Yep, a day. Even with my lousy math skills, I know that’s a hell of a lot of money coming into Ford’s coffers. As we’re located in southern California, it seems right to compare the car industry with the movie business with their arcane complications and methodologies of determining a product’s costs and profits (and losses and taxes and write-offs). Both businesses take years of “pre-production” and by the time a car makes it to the showroom or a film to your local screen, thousands of people and hundreds of companies may have been working full-time for years on it — and often after all that work and time and money the project either never gets off the ground or is a bomb. Keep in mind, also, that car dealers buy their cars and trucks from their respective factories; they have to get financing and pay back those loans just like we do. And dealers and car-makers have at least as many rebate and other money-saving deals and bonuses between them as dealers offer the public. Our point is that by the time the customer sees the Monroney sticker on the new car with the MSRP, the Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price, that number has little to do with the actual cost of the car or even what the dealer intends to sell it for. The all-important number is what the dealer will ultimately pay the factory for that vehicle. Even with the incredible amount of information about new and used car-buying and -selling on the Web, the actual cost of shepherding a car along from an idea to a concept and prototyping then to showroom floor and the garages of America remains a true mystery. Just be assured that even with all the clunker programs and rebates and 0% down and free regular maintenance and roadside service and all the other deals, a lot of people are still making a lot of money in the auto industry. With every new deal, every new “financial product,” every new price adjustment in the consumer’s favor and adding what were formerly expensive options as standard features, we might actually be paying closer than ever to the actual cost of the car. Some of you might think that how the price of cars has far out-stripped the cost of inflation is also something the industry needs to deal with, too. Let us know what you think about what dealers and car-makers should be doing “post-clunker” — we know for a fact that top industry people stop by here almost daily and my opinions pale in importance to what you, the sophisticated and educated car-buyer, has to say. So let them have it. How should we be buying cars in the 21st century? Should the car-makers be allowed to own their own dealerships? Should new cars and trucks be bought outright on the Web, delivered by flatbed truck to your home or office, using a system which means you never have to set-foot in a dealership? Should groups of dealers be allowed to band together and create “service supercenters” outside of town, a place where warranty and repair work is done, but a place which the customer never needs to see? Even with GM’s revolutionary use of eBay, allowing customers in California to bid online for various GM makes and models, that customer still has to take delivery of the car or truck at a brick-and-mortar dealership. In future posts, we’ll take a look at how Nissan, through their Infiniti luxury “channel,” and Mazda, with their proposed luxury division code-named Amati, both had great opportunities to change the landscape of auto dealing (and servicing) in the US, but choose instead to stick with the status quo. The auto industry is leaving its exuberant teenage years. Now it needs guidance from you, the adults.

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