September 2009

Lyons Group Announces Board of Advisors

by admin on September 30, 2009

This is from
Marketwire – Management Changes:

DALLAS, TX–(Marketwire – October 1, 2009) – The Lyons Acquisition Group announced the establishment of a prestigious Board of Advisors and the launch of their new web site www.LAG1.com . Members of the Board include Tom Montgomery, Managing Partner of Montgomery Coscia Greilich; Jack Mueller, Managing Partner of Timmaron Capital; and Bill Wallace, CEO of The Wallace Companies and Founder of Success North Dallas. “We are honored to have such a prestigious Board of Advisors to provide guidance and direction to the partnership,” said Tom Lyons, Managing Partner of LAG. “Individually, they are accomplished in their respective fields. Collectively, they bring a breadth of experience and expertise that will serve us well as we pursue acquisitions in the Metroplex.”

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Lyons Group Announces Board of Advisors

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Forbes 400 List: Forbes Releases Names Of America’s Richest People

by The Huffington Post News Team on September 30, 2009

This is from
Business on HuffingtonPost.com:

The rich haven’t gotten richer–or poorer–this year. The price of admission to this, the 27th edition of The Forbes 400, is $1.3 billion for the second year in a row. The assembled net worth of America’s wealthiest rose by $30 billion–only 2%–to $1.57 trillion.

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Forbes 400 List: Forbes Releases Names Of America’s Richest People

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Franklin Street Pays $73M for Northern VA Office Bldg.

September 30, 2009

Franklin Street Properties Corp. closed on its purchase of a 252,613-square-foot office building at 3150 Fairview Park Drive in Falls Church, VA, from ING Clarion Partners LLC for $73 million, or approximately $289 per square foot. The eight-year-old…

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Steve Parker: What really happened? Penske drops Saturn bid; GM says division doomed

September 30, 2009

Today, Roger Penske called-off talks for his takeover of Saturn, almost certainly dooming yet another General Motors division. For so many months, it’s seemed like a slam dunk for one of the auto world’s smartest and richest executives. Penske, whose racing team has won a record 15 Indy 500s, had come to agreement with GM to take over their once-vaunted Saturn brand, keeping the stores open and workers making cars. It appeared to be great deal for Penske; he would initially buy cars from GM to sell as Saturns at his stores, then in another two years work with another carmaker which would supply the cars, branded with the familiar “Saturn” name. A GM exec with a car which will never be; a 2010 Saturn plug-in hybrid Though details were never forthcoming, many thought Penske was getting Saturn for next-to-nothing. He would supply the approximately 250 dealers with cars and trucks; he wouldn’t have to make the cars, he wouldn’t have to sell them; just be the go-between the factory and dealers. He was going to be a car distributor. But that “other” carmaker, never officially named, the one Penske needed to supply him and his Saturn stores with vehicles, dropped out of the negotiations when, according to Penske, that company’s board of directors balked. So as of today, he has nothing to distribute. GM said after the Penske announcement that they would begin “winding down” Saturn as a corporate division. Roger Penske at his favorite weekend hobby; in the pits, running his IndyCar team It’s an ignominious and atypical end to the deal for Penske. He’s used to being in close control of his vast business empire (he’s the world’s biggest car dealer, for one thing), and that another carmaker’s board of directors would doom his dream must especially chafe. Penske’s failure will almost certainly result in Saturn’s demise, and publicly, officially and finally ends the Roger Smith era at GM. Smith (the “Roger” in Michael Moore’s first film, Roger and Me) was ultimately considered something of an uninformed buffoon by the time he left his GM CEO position. He didn’t speak well in public and always seemed ill-at-ease at media events, But he was also something of a visionary, if not always as detailed as he should have been, with his creation of Saturn and he was a tough political in-fighter who held some sway over GM for years after he officially left. Smith created Saturn in the early 1990s specifically to do battle with the Asian imports. Dealerships would be open and friendly, prices would be “no haggle” and buyers would be treated with respect. Roger Smith at the Saturn factory he built Smith built a dedicated factory which would make only Saturns in Spring Hill, TN, a hint of the industry’s future moves to southeast “greenfield” locations. The contract between Saturn and the United Auto Workers was way ahead of its time and is still considered a model of fairness. Smith didn’t want the GM name associated with Saturn at all; he even hired an ad agency with no automotive experience, Hal Riney and Associates of San Francisco as Saturn’s agency. Riney himself did the voiceovers for the spots, classics of the sort (his company also created and he voiced the infamous “It’s morning in America” ad for Ronald Reagan). Even when things went wrong, Saturn seemed able to turn it into a positive. When a customer in Alaska had a problem with their car’s seats, Saturn flew a technician there from the Lower 48 to make the fix, and that made news. When the occasional recall hit, dealers would hold cook-outs when owners brought their cars for repair to strengthen their bond with their customers. And things were fixed right, the first time, if at all possible. Perhaps most surprising, for several years “Saturn Homecoming” conventions were held at the Spring Hill factory, with thousands of owners driving from everywhere in the US and Canada to attend. This is something you expect at, say, the Corvette plant in Bowling Green, KY … not at a factory building cars selling for around $20,000. Saturn indeed became an American phenomenon, and there was a major reason behind their success: they built pretty damn good cars. Combined with the dealer attitude towards customers and the great PR the company was getting, GM appeared to have a winner, possibly a huge one. A 2003 Saturn; the company was on its fatal downturn by this point So what went wrong? GM started running out of money a long time before the current depression. As the 21st century approached, GM’s board apparently chose Saturn to suffer most from the downturn. The company started selling cars and trucks not built in Spring Hill and available in other GM stores under other names, and those cars were not covered with what had become a Saturn trademark — plastic body panels to ward off parking lot dings. Though the dealers stayed loyal to Saturn’s original concept of treating the customer like they’d never been treated at a car dealer, since 2000, new product barely trickled into the stores (this is how a carmaker can punish dealers or an entire division) and not-so-slowly Saturn appeared destined for failure. Why was Saturn picked by the GM board to suffer? Some think, with a new generation of leaders, it was the company’s way of thumbing the corporate nose at Roger Smith, who had embarrassed GM so often and so badly. Others say it was because no one really knew what Smith had spent to create Saturn; many put the figure above $10 billion, in 1990 dollars, and some insiders told me Saturn would always be a liability and never be able to pay for itself, much less show a profit. Another possible reason: Somewhere in every Chevrolet dealer’s contract, it states that Chevy is the “entry level” car for GM. A Saturn store selling a lot of cars and trucks for less than the Chevys down the street didn’t engender warm feelings from Chevy dealers towards Saturn. Chevy dealers are the 800-pound gorilla of GM; there are 3,812 Chevy stores in the US, and that carries weight with the corporation. Perhaps those Chevy dealers just wanted Saturn to go away… and GM wanted to avoid lawsuits. A 2010 Corvette Gran Sport, the modern version of Roger Penske’s 1963 race car; both the Corvette and Saturn factories are far from Detroit It’s no secret that Roger Penske has been sought-after by every carmaker in Detroit to serve as a top executive. He’s always turned them down, preferring to run his own company as he pleased and succeed or fail on his own terms. Penske, along with very few others, including Walter P. Chrysler, Pete Petersen at Ford, John DeLorean, Lee Iacocca and Bob Lutz, is certainly among the smartest people ever in the car business. Over 20 years ago, on the day he opened his $100,000-million California Speedway with a full house of over 100,000 fans and great racing events, early that morning I watched Penske drive a minitruck around the track and the infield area, stopping to get out and pick up litter when he spotted some. He leaves nothing to chance; that incident told me all I needed to know about Penske. Want a Smart car? Daimler, its owner, sells them in the US only through Penske-owned dealerships And he’s still going strong at age 72. Americans can buy a Smart car only at a Penske dealership and his Longo Toyota in southern California is reputed to be the single biggest car dealer in the world of any type, retailing a new car or truck every 15 minutes, 24 hours a day, every day of the year. I never recommend dealers because it often turns into a nightmare and I become the bad guy: Longo is the only dealer I recommend and I’ve never been disappointed. Penske almost tasted the sweetest irony. He’s been on GM’s radar since he won the Sports Illustrated Driver of the Year award racing sports cars in 1960, then started a Cadillac dealership in Philadelphia, but GM could never get him to work for them. (Penske even raced one of the five legendary 1963 Gran Sport Corvette race cars, built to take on Ford’s Cobra, which they did). Then Penske gets a chance, almost 50 years later, to own a former division of that same company. Then, the deal fails because of an unnamed carmaker which couldn’t supply Penske with the cars he’d need to get to his Saturn dealers, something out of Penske’s control. He’s also known, not surprisingly for a top business person, for a certain steely coldness. When his racing team fired Paul Tracy from his IndyCar racing job, one story says that Tracy was called to a hotel room where he found two seated Penske executives, and he was simply told, “You’re through.” And that was that. Automotive trivia lovers probably know that Enzo Ferrari was known as “Il Commandatore.” Roger Penske is known as “Captain” to those around him, and his achievements are legion, outliving those of even Roger Smith. Can Saturn survive? Is there another savior out there with the money, brains and experience to keep those stores open, cars selling and most important, people working? Or could only another car company do what Penske had planned for Saturn?

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Winning Hand: A Full House Beats the Recession

September 30, 2009

Just as the recession has been tougher on Main Street than on Wall Street, it has also hit two distinct types of office properties disproportionately. One type of office building has done surprisingly well, and one has suffered enormously. More than 75…

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Bank Watch: Federal Reserve Puts Four More Banks on Notice

September 30, 2009

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System has entered into written agreements with four bank holding companies in the past week. Written agreements set a plan in place for financial institutions to restore and maintain financial soundness within…

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Lloyd Chapman: Alabama Congressman Parker Griffith Epitomizes Everything that is Wrong with Government

September 30, 2009

Huntsville Alabama Congressman Parker Griffith (D-AL-5) is claiming that he accidentally included language in his new bill, H.R. 3558, which would allow some of his largest campaign contributors and their subsidiaries to receive billions of dollars in government small business contracts. In an article published in the Florence, Alabama based Times Daily newspaper, Congressman Griffith stated the language in the bill that would have allowed his two top campaign contributors, Boeing and Northrop Grumman, to continue to hijack federal small business contracts were “unintended consequences.” ( http://www.timesdaily.com/article/20090930/ARTICLES/909305008/1011/NEWS?Title=Griffith-Bill-needs-more-work ) The American Small Business League (ASBL) uncovered the blatant and colossal loophole for corporate giants immediately after reading the exceedingly short, 283-word legislation. Congressman Griffith’s claim that he really meant to write a piece of legislation to help small businesses, but accidently included language that would divert billions of dollars in federal small businesses contracts to Fortune 500 firms and their subsidiaries is ludicrous. He is either a moron or a liar. Apparently the same person that writes Congressman Griffith’s legislation must also be writing his excuses. It’s amazing how accident-prone Washington bureaucrats are when it comes to giving small business contracts to Fortune 500 firms. The SBA has been claiming that every day for the last ten years Fortune 500 firms get federal small business contracts accidentally through “data entry errors” and “miscoding.” I guess Congress would also claim “unintended consequences” when it passed the Comprehensive Test Program, which helps major Pentagon contractors cheat small businesses by removing the reporting function and any penalties for non-compliance with small business goals. Parker Griffith’s H.R. 3558 is just the most recent example of a crooked politician being bribed by big business to pass legislation that will fill their pockets at the expense of the middle class. Congressman Griffith is a Randy “Duke” Cunningham wannabe that would have succeeded had it not been for the diligent work of the ASBL’s staff. Like Cunningham, who is now serving 8-years in prison for conspiracy to commit bribery, mail fraud, wire fraud and tax evasion; Congressman Griffith appears to have an extremely cozy relationship with Fortune 500 defense contractors in his district. You would think if Congressman Griffith was telling the truth, and his bill did “unintentionally” contain language that would hurt small businesses as opposed to helping them, he might be grateful to the ASBL for pointing it out. He accused us of seeking “notoriety” as opposed to our goal of shining the light on another piece of anti-small business legislation from another crooked politician doing the bidding of big business. Quite the contrary, my goal is not to gain notoriety for the ASBL or myself, my goal is to gain notoriety for Huntsville Alabama Congressman Parker Griffith. I want to make Parker Griffith the poster boy for dishonest slime balls in Washington that think they can pass legislation to make their fat cat campaign contributors rich by cheating small businesses and the middle class. It is no coincidence that virtually all of the nation’s largest defense contractors are major contributors to the House Small Business Committee. Gee, I wonder if that would explain why over a dozen federal investigations found that hundreds of billions of dollars in federal small business contracts have been diverted to those same Fortune 500 defense contractors and Congress has never passed a single piece of legislation to stop it. I know Congressman Griffith’s staff is reading everything I am writing on this subject, so let me say this to Congressman Griffith and his staff. I meant to write a really complimentary piece about you, but I unintentionally wrote this piece calling you a lying crook, a moron and a slime ball politician that should be investigated by the FBI for bribery. OOPS.

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Dave Johnson: A New Economy from Old Roots?

September 30, 2009

This post originally appeared at Campaign for America’s Future (CAF) at their Blog for OurFuture as part of the Making It In America project. I am a Fellow with CAF. How do we build a new economy out of the collapse of the old economy? How do we start fresh to begin creating jobs again, while building in economic and environmental sustainability, as well as workplaces that respect human needs and rights? How do we change things so that we all get to share the benefits of the economy rather than just contributing to the increasing wealth of a few vastly wealthy people? While we look for a vision for a new economy, we should examine what has worked in the past. America had periods in which regular people enjoyed sustained increases in their standard of living. For a long time it was a conventional wisdom that each American generation would do better than the previous generation, more people would receive good educations, medical care would get better, the middle class would grow, leisure time would increase, poverty rates would decrease, retirement would be easier, etc. But this pattern stopped. Beginning in the late 1970s and especially in the 1980s incomes began to stagnate, wealth increasingly concentrated at the top, working hours and workplace pressures steadily increased, availability of good health care started to decrease, etc. The standard of living of most Americans began to and continues to decline. At the same time corporations became more predatory as consumer protections vanished. Meanwhile outsourcing, deunionization and other anti-worker policies led to increasingly unpleasant, stressful and unrewarding worklives for more and more people. Many of today’s problems are traceable directly to the policy results of anti-government propaganda that was blasted out from well-funded conservative think tanks starting in the 1970s. The anti-government campaign led to defunding of many national, state and local government programs that improved education, helped the poor or enriched people’s lives. We suffered deregulation in many areas where the government had protected consumers, workers, investors and the environment. Huge reductions in taxes for the wealthy were either offset by tax increases for the rest of us or government borrowing. And that borrowing has led to increasing problems of paying the interest and threats to funding even basic programs like Social Security and education. So what worked, before the conservatives trashed the place? Regulation One thing we know for sure now, learned the hardest way thanks to the financial crisis: regulation worked. Regulation was necessary, it worked, it kept firms from taking risks that could bring down the economy. And we can also see now how regulations protected consumers from predatory corporate activities, workers from wage theft or unsafe working conditions, and the environment from exploitation and destruction. Taxes Before Reagan the tax rates at the top were very high. After you reached – and took home – a certain very high income you paid a high percentage of the rest in taxes. This had many beneficial results – even for the people who paid higher taxes . Government could afford to keep the physical, education and legal infrastructure in good condition without borrowing. Government could afford to invest in programs that improved our standard of living, health, knowledge and technology, which helped businesses grow. Businesses thrived in such well-watered soil. The high tax rates also kept the bad side of human nature in check. When it took years to build up a fortune businesspeople had to rely on the health of the greater community to nurture their own wealth-building enterprises and keep them thriving over a long period. They had to think and act long-term. The roads needed to be kept in repair, the schools needed to provide excellent education to potential employees, the courts needed to be functional to enforce contracts, and they wanted the communities they were going to have to stay in to be pleasant places to live. But once taxes were lowered vast windfalls could be realized from a single event and it made more sense to try to fleece the community with quick-buck schemes than to rely on it. We began to see corporate raiders break up solid, ongoing companies, steal pension funds, etc., while encouraging communities to cut spending on schools, roads, etc. It became more profitable sell off or outsource our manufacturing capacity. And then, as things fell apart, the few who benefited could just fly away in their private jets or sail away in their huge yachts. The greater community was no longer any use to them except as crops to be harvested. Vulnerable consumers are the only crop that is coming up in this economy. Big Government Government is We, the People making the decisions. “Big government” is simply another way of saying that more of the important decisions are made by the people. Shrinking government means handing the decisions over to big corporations. In the real world this is the choice. And in the real world big corporations make decisions that benefit them, and only them . Before you badmouth government think carefully about what the alternative is. Old-Fashioned Government Planning As I said in a post a few months ago , The phrase “industrial policy” sounds so Walter Mondale, 1970s, smokestacks and brick factory old-fashioned. I suspect the subject turns people off, eyes glaze over, hands reach under the table for iPhones and Blackberries… But here we are without an industrial policy. How’s that working out for us? Every other country has one. China seriously has one. We instead have huge trade deficits. We don’t make things here so we have to borrow money to buy things made elsewhere. To add insult to injury, recently Deutsche Bank released a research note advising investors that the U.S. was not a good investment because of our lack of a government industrial policy. See Deutsche Bank: Absence of US Clean Energy Policy Will Send Global Capital Elsewhere . While we envision a new direction for our economy, maybe we should also be looking at returning to a few old-fashioned ways of doing things, too.

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The 7 Most Awkward Ken Lewis Faces (PHOTOS)

September 30, 2009

On the heels of the announcement that Ken Lewis will be retiring from Bank of America later this year, we decided to take an unusual look back at Lewis’ controversial tenure as the bank’s CEO. Known for being combative and competitive, Lewis rose from being an industry unknown to the heights of the banking world. He was actually named Banker Of the Year as late as 2008. Earlier this year, New York Magazine’s Daily Intel said Lewis has “always hoarded power and earned a reputation as a standoffish, acid-tongued loner.” But along the way, the press caught some rather revealing glimpses of the many facets of Lewis’ multifaceted personality. And he developed something we like to call “The Ken Lewis Face.” We’ve compiled some of the most entertaining — and, to be fair, the most awkward — shots of Lewis’ long banking career. The captions, we should point out, are our own. Vote for your favorite Ken Lewis Face below. Get HuffPost Business On Facebook and Twitter !

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Bank Of America: Another Customer Gets Bank’s Attention Via YouTube (VIDEO)

September 30, 2009

Darren Bryant of Pensacola, Fla. spent hours in what he calls Bank of America’s “phone maze,” getting bounced from person to person, never reaching somebody who could address his situation. Finally, in one last desperate attempt to get someone’s attention, he uploaded a five-minute video to YouTube in which he explains his predicament and gives his phone number and email address. “The reason I’m making this video is to get in contact with somebody from Bank of America that can make a decision,” Bryant says in the video, which he uploaded on Monday. He then emailed a link to over a dozen Bank of America email addresses he said he found online. Within four hours of posting the rant, Bryant got a phone call. It was somebody from the office of David Darnell , president of Global Commercial Banking at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “She says, ‘We received your video and I’m calling you to see what the deal is and to go over the situation with you,’” Bryant said. The woman asked for his account number and said the bank would investigate. “She said, ‘We take this very seriously when somebody posts a video.’” Bank of America has proven responsive to other videos from its customers. Ann Minch of Red Bluff, Calif., made a huge splash in September when she declared via YouTube that she wouldn’t pay off her credit card debt unless the “evil, thieving bastards” at Bank of America lowered her interest rate. The video went viral, and within a week of its posting an executive got in touch with Minch and agreed to her demand . Bank of America spokeswoman Jumana Bauwens confirmed to the Huffington Post that the bank got in touch with Bryant after he made his video. But even though Minch’s one-woman “debtors’ revolt” has become a fledgling movement , Bauwens said Bank of America would have responded to Bryant video or not. “If he sent that letter without the video he would have got the same response,” Bauwens said. Bryant, a 45-year-old real estate investor with three kids, said he’s struggling to keep afloat with fewer tenants and lower rents in his 32 units; he wants Bank of America reduce his interest rate on a $750,000 loan by a point and a half. Otherwise, he said, he’ll lose everything, including his own personal home, and Bank of America will lose hundreds of thousands in the foreclosure process. “You have a $750,000 note. If you sold the property in these market conditions like they are now, you’d be lucky to get $500,000 for the property. Basically you’re going to be forcing me into a foreclosure which will force me into bankruptcy. It’s not going to be a win-win situation for Bank of America, nor myself.” He said he wasn’t inspired to use YouTube to air his grievance by Minch — he said it’s entirely coincidental that he posted his plea in the midst of the “debtors’ revolt.” “Basically, I’m forced to get on YouTube for my last resort and see if I can get any help,” he said in his video. “The whole purpose of this video is not to make Bank of America look bad, but to inform Ken Lewis the CEO of Bank of America what is going on. It’s hard to imagine that with me filling the properties back up, getting the properties back into a cash flow position, that Bank of America’s not willing to work with me.” (Bank of America announced Wednesday that Lewis would be stepping down .) Here’s Bryant’s first video: Bryant uploaded a second video on Wednesday with an update. He said he heard from a Bank of America executive who explained that “right now there’s no government assistance, there’s no modifications, there’s nothing for any investment properties as far as somebody that’s in your situation.”

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Credit Rating Agency Analysts Covering AIG, Lehman Brothers Never Disciplined

September 30, 2009

Analysts at the three biggest credit rating agencies who gave positive, investment-grade ratings to AIG and Lehman Brothers up until their collapse have not been fired or disciplined, the heads of the agencies admitted at a Congressional hearing today . Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s, and Fitch Ratings all maintained at least A ratings on AIG and Lehman Brothers up until mid-September of last year. Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy Sept. 15 ; the federal government provided AIG with its first of four multibillion-dollar bailouts the next day . Under questioning by Rep. Jackie Speier (D-Calif.), Raymond W. McDaniel, Jr. of Moody’s, Deven Sharma of S&P, and Stephen Joynt of Fitch said the analysts in charge of ratings for the now-disgraced firms are still employed. McDaniel defended Moody’s ratings of Lehman Brothers by pointing to the government-engineered rescue of Bear Stearns in March of 2008 , arguing that it played an important role in Moody’s analysts maintaining an A rating on the now-bankrupt firm. Joynt said his analysts have since done “a lot of thoughtful soul-searching.” The big three rating agencies have come under fire since the 2007 collapse in the subprime home mortgage market for issuing rosy ratings on a plethora of securities that are now considered to be junk. The Obama administration and Congress are exploring various reform proposals. At the hearing today, the exchange between Speier and the agency chiefs was particularly contentious. “You had rated AIG and Lehman Brothers as AAA, AA minutes before they were collapsing. After they did fail, did you take any action against those analysts who had rated them?” Speier asked. “Did you fire them? Did you suspend them? Did you take any actions against those who had put that kind of a remarkable grade on products that were junk?” McDaniel answered first. “No, we did not fire any of the analysts involved in either AIG or Lehman,” he replied. “An important part of our analysis was based on a review of governmental support that had been applied to Bear Stearns earlier in the year. “Frankly, an important part of our analysis was that a line had been drawn under the number five firm in the market [Bear], and that likely number four would be supported as well. Additionally…” Speier then interrupted him. “But that’s not analysis,” the first-term Congresswoman shot back. “That’s an opinion. I can have that kind of an opinion, and I’m not an analyst. How could you possibly make that kind of a decision based on an opinion when you have millions of people relying on that?” “Our opinion applies to whether we believe an instrument will pay or will not pay,” McDaniel responded. “That was a political determination that you made, Mr. McDaniel,” Speier retorted. S&P’s Sharma said his analysts also were not fired. Joynt of Fitch said the same. He said that Fitch analysts in charge of Lehman Brothers and AIG were “disappointed” and “surprised.” In an interview with the Huffington Post after the exchange, Speier said she was “flabbergasted” by the responses. “It just makes the case over and over again of the lack of accountability in the financial services industry,” she said. “It’s heads they win, tails the public loses.” The analysts “should have been disciplined, and they should have gone back and looked at their modeling, which was flawed to begin with. We don’t need your political opinions [off which] to base a rating of a security,” she added. “For all the talk of all this being such a deliberative, scientific process…to have this decision was remarkable to me.” Get HuffPost Business On Facebook and Twitter

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Spike in Short Sale Demand Keeps Asset Manager Busy

September 30, 2009

full-time service provider for mortgage servicers. Chief operating officer Travis Hamel-Olsen said the company specializes in working with distressed borrowers after they have been denied home retention solutions like modifications or refinancings. The

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Larry Gellman: Back to the Future — The Tension Over Tense

September 30, 2009

Have you ever noticed that most things people say they are worried might happen in the future are things that have already happened? Once the dreaded event has taken place, they start speaking in the future tense about it as though it hadn’t happened yet — but they’re worried that it might. That was this year’s Rosh Hashanah insight that got me through the day as we Chosen folks ushered in 5770 the other day. As a financial adviser I have seen it repeatedly over the years. Investors and the business news media always seem to consider the market to be risky after it has already been crushed. It is only near market tops that people tend to be comfortable owning stocks and are losing sleep because they don’t own enough hot issues. We saw panic at the bottom after the stock market crash in 1987 and again last March when people were so worried about how risky the market had become that they wanted to sell every stock they owned — including companies that were trading at valuations that were less than the cash they had in the bank. That, of course, was after their accounts had been crushed and the people sold their stocks without regard to price just so they could sleep at night. We saw the mirror image of that behavior during the late 1990′s during the tech bubble. “Conservative” investors fired their money managers for not owning enough high-flying stocks that had already gone up by 1,000 percent or more. Then they turned around and sued their new managers in the early 2000′s because they owned too many of the internet companies that the investors themselves ordered them to buy. It’s easy to poke fun but in fact human nature tends to lead us astray under a variety of circumstances. With investments, mob psychology takes over. People get greedy at the top and afraid at the bottom. At the end of the day, they almost always default in favor of sleeping at night. What is harder to understand is why people speak in the future tense about their worries months after the worst has already happened and the risk would seem to be gone. The same phenomenon seems to apply to the criticism and concerns expressed about President Obama. The very issues that many detractors say they are most worried about seem to be events that already happened long before Obama even took office. For example, critics say they are worried that Obamanomics will create huge federal deficits and destroy the economy. But during the eight years of George W. Bush’s presidency, what had been a budget surplus turned into $5 trillion in deficits and that doesn’t include the cost of the Iraq war and other expenses that were made off budget. To save the economy, Obama will certainly run $1 trillion-plus deficits in coming years, but Bush already did that in 2008. John McCain has admitted that had he been elected the deficit numbers would have looked pretty much the same. As far as destroying the economy is concerned, that was pretty much a done deal at this time a year ago — months before Obama was even elected. There is also a lot of hand-wringing and fear that Obama wants to redistribute wealth and take all the money from the rich and give it to the poor. But wasn’t it Bush who pushed through a $170 billion stimulus bill more than a year ago where checks of up to $1,200 were sent to the poorest Americans in a failed effort to avert a recession? Where were the cries of “socialism” and the teabagging parties back then? And wasn’t it Bush who redistributed billions of in the opposite direction with his tax cuts for the wealthy? The same is true regarding many concerns about health care reform — not the phony ones which are just based on lies. Outrage is routinely expressed about having a government-financed health care system in which the care itself would be rationed. But isn’t that what we already have with Medicare, Medicaid, and the V.A.? And isn’t health care already being rationed by our current system? I am covered by a “gold-plated” health plan but my premiums and co-pays go up every year and the procedures that are covered by my insurance keep going down. In recent years, I have been told more and more often that “your insurance doesn’t cover that procedure” and have seen an increasing number of doctors refuse to accept patients covered by certain insurers because their reimbursement levels have dropped so dramatically. Perhaps the most ironic line of this whole debate comes from the millions of Republicans who have cautioned Obama and the Democrats to “keep the government away from my Medicare.” There are many reasons to be concerned about the future of health care in our country and how we’re going to pay for it. But those who are most concerned about the government controlling coverage or about care being rationed in the future are waiting for a train that left the station years ago. My guess is that 95 percent of the things most people worry about either have already happened or will never happen. Having said that, there is no doubt that fear about the future can be a useful tool. But only if it is used to keep us out of trouble or to spur us on to imagine and work to create better outcomes and a better world. Today, however, fears and worries seem to mainly just whip up anger, hate, and demonization of our leaders and institutions. Hopefully during the coming year we will funnel more of our energy to finding constructive solutions to the many problems that confront us and waste less worrying about things that have already happened or never will. Steering the Ship of State and our personal lives is tough enough under the best of circumstances. It becomes impossible if we spend all our time looking in the rear view mirror.

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GM Saturn Shutdown: Automaker To Shut Down Brand After Penske Walks Away

September 30, 2009

DETROIT — General Motors Co. said Wednesday it would shut down its Saturn brand after an agreement with Penske Automotive Group Inc. to acquire it fell apart. Penske, citing concerns of whether it could continue to supply vehicles after a manufacturing contract with GM ran out, ended talks with GM Wednesday to acquire the brand. GM CEO Fritz Henderson said in statement that Saturn and its dealership network will be phased out. “This is very disappointing news and comes after months of hard work by hundreds of dedicated employees and Saturn retailers who tried to make the new Saturn a reality,” Henderson said in a written statement. “PAG’s announcement explained that their decision was not based on interactions with GM or Saturn retailers.” In a statement, the Bloomfield Hills, Mich.-based auto retailer says an agreement with another manufacturer to continue producing Saturn vehicles after GM stopped making them fell through, leading Penske to terminate talks with GM. Penske said it negotiated terms and conditions to make Saturn cars with another manufacturer, but that company’s board of directors rejected the agreement. Penske spokesman Anthony Pordon would not identify the other manufacturer. “Without that agreement, the company has determined that the risks and uncertainties related to the availability of future products prohibit the company from moving forward with this transaction,” the company said in a statement. In June, GM and Penske agreed to take over the Saturn brand and related dealerships, although GM would produce the vehicles for a limited period of time. GM said Saturn vehicle owners can still go to their Saturn dealer for service and would be able to go to a certified GM dealer for service once Saturn dealerships are closed. It was expected that GM would announce the completion of Saturn’s sale to Penske in the coming days. Share of Penske fell $1.93 to $17.25 in after hours trading. They rose $1.32, or 7.4 percent to $19.18 in regular trading Wednesday.

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Ken Lewis Retiring: Bank Of America CEO To Step Down By End Of 2009

September 30, 2009

NEW YORK — Ken Lewis, the embattled CEO of Bank of America Corp., is leaving the company, succumbing to nearly a year of strife that followed his company’s acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co. The bank said in a statement late Wednesday that Lewis, 62, would retire as CEO and also leave the company’s board by the end of the year. The company said his successor will be selected by the time he steps down Dec. 31. The news, coming after shareholders had stripped Lewis of his chairman’s title earlier this year, wasn’t surprising because of the intense pressure he came under after the Merrill deal. Lewis had said he would stay on as CEO until after the company’s financial problems were resolved, a process expected to take several years. However, with the bank also under heavy criticism from government officials, Lewis was increasingly seen as vulnerable. “He’s had a big target on his chest for the whole Merrill Lynch deal, and I can only imagine the emotional stress he’s endured ” said Alan Villalon, senior research analyst at Minneapolis-based First American Funds, which owns Bank of America stock. Since the Merrill deal closed Jan. 1, it was learned the investment bank with the knowledge of Bank of America executives gave billions of dollars in bonuses to employees even as it asked for more bailout money from the government. The deal was forged a year ago at the height of the financial crisis. New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo this month subpoenaed five members of Bank of America’s board as part of an investigation into the Merrill deal. Bank of America had settled a separate investigation last month into disclosures about the Merrill bonuses with the Securities and Exchange Commission, but a federal judge threw out that $33 million settlement, saying it was unfair and needlessly penalized the bank’s shareholders. The judge ordered the case to go to trial Feb. 1. Shares of Bank of America rose 23 cents to $17.15 in after-hours trading, after falling 24 cents to end the regular session at $16.92. Investors may have some concerns over the lack of an immediate successor, but those will likely be temporary, Villalon said. “They probably won’t operate long without a CEO,” he said. “If somebody comes from the outside, or even internally, it gives a set of fresh eyes.” ___ AP Business Writer Sara Lepro contributed to this report.

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Weaver Named EVP of Atlantic Records

September 30, 2009

NEW YORK, NY–(Marketwire – September 30, 2009) – Kevin Weaver has been promoted to Executive Vice President of the Atlantic Records Group, it was announced by Atlantic Records Group Chairman/CEO Craig Kallman and Chairman/COO Julie Greenwald. The Los Angeles-based Weaver, who began his music career with Atlantic in 1994, was most recently Senior Vice President of the company. In his post, Weaver oversees the creation and placement of Atlantic-affiliated music and artists across all visual media — including film, television, and video games — as well as being responsible for developing and overseeing soundtrack projects, strategic alliances, licensing opportunities, and marketing initiatives. In this role, he works closely with film and TV studios as well as production companies.

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BRIEF-Extra Space Storage amends JV deal with Harrison Street Real Estate Capital

September 30, 2009

Sept 30 (Reuters) – Extra Space Storage Inc: * Amends joint venture agreement with Harrison Street Real Estate Capital, LLC * Says HSRE will contribute about $15.0 million in cash to the jv in return for a 50.0% ownership interest * Says JV will assume

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Jenny Darroch: Will Consumer Spending Change Once the Recession Ends?

September 30, 2009

Two of the big questions facing marketing managers today are: (1) when will consumers open their wallets again; and (2) will consumers behave differently when they do? We know that consumer spending accounts for 70% of all economic activity in the US and we know that consumers are being asked to consume to kick start the economy and end the recession, just as they were asked to do so after World War II and 9/11. Once again, spending is being positioned as an act of patriotism. But what makes this recession different from all other recessions is the extent to which damage has been inflicted on individuals: unemployment is nudging 10% (although many more are affected by the downturn in the labor market), retirement savings and college funds have been decimated, and people have lost their homes and subsequently, their sense of self worth. To hear grown men and women telling their stories, to hear the despair in their voices, the sense of betrayal they feel towards lenders and employers is revealing. Can people ever truly recover from the emotional and material damage this recession has caused? Along with a drop in consumption, we have seen some behavioral shifts take place: consumers are taking care not to engage in conspicuous consumption, which is one of the reasons Starbucks felt the need to reposition its brand. Many consumers no longer trust big brands, which is why American Express recently began a campaign to regain consumer trust. Consumers have become a lot more value driven, which is one of the reasons why private labels are doing so well. Consumers are delaying the purchase of big ticket items, which is why the sales of new cars have plummeted. Consumers are paying attention to their carbon footprint which is one of the reasons why ZipCar is doing so well and bottled water is not. Finally, consumers are paying more attention to the source of products they buy, which is why we have seen a resurgence in an interest in self sufficiency (remember Michelle Obama’s vegetable garden?). If we take into account deep-seated cultural values, however, we realize just how hard it is to expect a permanent change. In the US for example, like many other market driven economies, business and government leaders are rewarded for generating economic growth and maximizing returns to shareholders — often in the absence of regulations and without consideration for likely negative consequences. For evidence of this, we just need to look a the innovation and growth that occurred in the financial services sector, and the consequences of the Lehman Brothers collapse in September 2008 In the green shoots of economic recovery, it seems that there are also green shoots of behavior practices that resemble those which got us into trouble in the first place — for example, businesses that help people renegotiate the terms of their mortgages with lenders for a fee (more like take the money and run). What this demonstrates is that there will always be ways to make money, ways that are not (yet) illegal but are still harmful to consumers. It won’t be hard to identify an increase in consumer spending but it will be more difficult to detect whether in fact consumer values have fundamentally changed. Now that will be interesting. Jenny Darroch is on the faculty at the Drucker School of Management. She is an expert on marketing strategies that generate growth. See www.MarketingThroughTurbulentTimes.com

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Mark Miller: The Workforce is Aging, but Where Are the Age-Friendly Employers?

September 30, 2009

The Great Recession is pushing older workers to postpone retirement, but will employers accommodate them? Demographics dictate that the workforce will age in the years ahead. By 2016, one-third of the U.S. workforce will be age 50 or older, compared with 28 percent in 2007, according to AARP. But the current brutal jobs climate raises questions about the future prospects of older workers. The jobless rate for adults age 55 to 64 has more than doubled since November 2007, just before the recession began; in July, 7.2 percent of workers age 55 to 64 were out of work. That’s a troubling number, although it’s still about 2.5 percentage points lower than the overall national rate of 9.7 percent in August. Even in a tough economy, older workers are valued in some industries. Technology-oriented companies that depend on experienced scientists and engineers are worried about brain drain as the baby boomer generation retires. Many are scrambling to implement retention programs aimed at keeping these high-value knowledge workers on the job as long as possible. Some offer flexible work arrangements to accommodate the changing lifestyle needs of older employees. Companies say older workers are among their most productive, and that this offsets their higher compensation and benefit expenses. One study several years ago for AARP, for example, attempted to quantify productivity and cost advantages of retaining and hiring older workers by showing that turnover and training costs can exceed 50 percent of a worker’s annual salary, while higher compensation and benefit costs for older workers were only marginally higher than for younger people. At the same time, there’s strong evidence of age discrimination by employers on the hiring and firing side. As I noted here recently, age discrimination claims filed with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission were at a record high in 2008, and researchers have been able to establish that it’s much harder for older workers to land job interviews. Against that backdrop, it’s instructive to see employers compete for the honor of being age-friendly. AARP conducts an annual contest culminating in the Best Employers for Workers over 50 award; the 2009 winners were announced earlier this month. The AARP award offers a snapshot of the most age-friendly large employers in the country. Employers submit comprehensive applications, answering questions about their human resources practices and policies. The selection criteria include recruiting practices; opportunities for on-the-job training; education and career development; flexible work arrangements; and employee and retiree benefits, such as pensions. One lesson I draw from the winners’ list is that best employment practices for older workers are being implemented in a somewhat narrow range of economic sectors. This year, 40 percent of the top 50 come from education, government and the non-profit sector. The financial service sector was another big winner, grabbing 20 percent of the age-friendly awards. Some of the names popping up at the top of the list include Cornell University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and S.C. Johnson and Son, Inc. After that, it’s a potpourri of technology and service companies. What’s the best way to identify prospective employers that are age-friendly? Read the full story at RetirementRevised.com .

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Martha St Jean: Winning: A Talk with Carla Harris

September 30, 2009

For the fifth conversation in this series, I spoke to Carla Harris. Carla Harris is a managing director at Morgan Stanley. She has received numerous accolades and awards. She wrote the book, Expect to Win: Proven Strategies for Success from a Wall Street Vet . Within the book you will find Carla’s “pearls,” which are lessons she has learned during her twenty-plus year journey. She is also an accomplished singer . I first heard you speak at a women’s power breakfast and was captivated for the 45 minutes you spoke. How do you do it? By it , I mean stay focused and relate to people from all walks of life. First of all, I sort of think of myself as every woman, if you will. Relating to people is not a problem. I honor everybody’s power. No matter who they are or whatever station in life they are in. That in itself is the connection. You are considered a titan on Wall Street. And you happen to be an African-American woman and Wall Street titan. How has that shaped you? In what ways has that changed how you use your voice? It has not shaped me particularly. I don’t necessarily think of myself as a titan. I think of myself as a woman who worked very hard to get to the top of her profession; and I use the platform and voice to motivate and help others to reach their potential and goals. This question is personal for me. I have been speaking to many women — peers, colleagues, and younger women, including teens, about their futures. My career is in its initial stages. It is at times hard for me to give advice. How do I help people figure out if something like journalism is right for them? Your focus is to try to give them the tools that you have learned so far, whatever that is, and their focus is to execute what you have given them. If you are focused on helping other people, you will get your returns; you don’t really do it to expect something back. You will get your returns in ways that you can’t even imagine. You recently wrote a book, Expect to Win . Growing up did you picture yourself as someone who would one day wield such power and influence? I knew that I would do something that was important. I always wanted to have power, in order to motivate others to reach their goals. When did you see yourself as an author? Probably within the last five years when I was giving speeches at college campuses , at Fortune 100 companies and professional conferences. As I would articulate the pearls in the speeches people would invariably come up to me afterwards and say, “Do you have a book” or “I didn’t get the sixth pearl, could you repeat it?” I finally got the divine message and decided to put the pearls in a book. There’s no doubt about it that you are successful. There are so many different definitions of success. Can you give us a piece of advice about defining success for ourselves? The one piece is know yourself well and make sure that you can hear your own voice. Many times we lose our voices. Easily. We give away our voices and our power so easily. If you think about it, from age zero until age 22, i would argue, we are really articulating somebody else’s definition of success for us. It’s probably around the college age through age 25 or 26 that you begin to find your own definition of success and you start hearing your own voice. It is imperative that you hear your own voice when trying to define what success means to you. If you don’t have that, how do you define what success means to you? Success really becomes what others have said should be your definition of success. From my understanding, your family was supportive in your endeavors. What should young women do who do not have the support? You should actually continue to find other people who will be supportive of your endeavors. None of us chooses the family we have been born into. You can find other people and meet other people who are excited about you and will celebrate towards you and the things that you want to accomplish. It could be teachers, friends, parents of friends, clergy people. There are a lot of people that you could come into contact with that will serve as that support and as members of your success team. The first thing that struck me when I met you was your attitude of humility. How do you maintain grace under pressure? Again, it goes back to the first question of feeling like I’m every woman. Really owning that is what comes across as humility. I don’t think that I am better or worse than anybody. That’s what people would recognize as humility. Grace under pressure is really about faith — recognizing who really is divinely running my show. If you know that you know who is running the show and that things will always turn out for your good, then you don’t get frazzled and let things get to you. I would like to talk about the economy. Morgan Stanley refashioned itself about a year ago as a bank holding company making itself more or less like a commercial bank to survive the economic crisis. How are things going now? Things are going well and we are well positioned to take advantage of an improving environment. You’ve probably heard me say that I’m a bull and that I’m bullish generally. As we speak, the market is up 137 points. What conversation about the economy do Americans, especially the younger generations need to be having now? Number one — assert their voices. The younger generation should assert their voices about opportunities they see for growth. My generation cannot see everything and certainly don’t have the perspective of the millenials. Number two — assert themselves. Get involved now with the growth and put your imprimatur on it now because you will be leading things in the next twenty to thirty years. Is America headed in the right direction? I think so. Here’s the bull talking again. I am very excited about where we are headed as a country and the opportunities that lie ahead of us. What should college students and young adults be thinking about money? Is there a certain way we should be thinking about money? They should be thinking about learning to manage money, having a good relationship with money, understanding money. The requirements of managing their money will be a lot different than the requirement of two generations before them. Financial education is an important imperative for college students and below right now. I have heard you say some things about maintaining a balanced life. Can you speak about the outside activities you participate in? I think it’s very important that you have other things in your life besides your professional pursuits that bring you joy, that you are passionate about, that will keep you balanced. If all you have is work — then your life becomes a function of someone else’s day. I am passionate about serving. So, I am involved in non profits focusing on education, the arts, health care, and hunger. So those are some of the things I do. I am passionate about singing, so I do a lot of that as well.

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Barry Ritholtz: Give The SEC Teeth

September 30, 2009

By Barry Ritholtz Note: this post also appeared on Ritholtz’s blog, The Big Picture . The problems at the SEC were decades in the making. The agency is supposed to be an investor’s advocate, the cheif law enforcement agency for the markets. But that has hardly been how they have been managed, funded and operated run in recent years. Essentially the largest prosecutor’s office in the country, the SEC has been undercut at every turn: Their staffing was far too small to handle their jurisdiction — Wall Street and public Corporations. Their budgets have been sliced, and they were unable to keep up with the explosion in corporate criminality. Many key positions were left unfilled, and morale was severely damaged. A series of disastrous SEC chairs were appointed — to be “kindler and gentler.” Not only did they fail to maintain SEC funding (via fines), but they allowed the worst corporate offenders to go unpunished. Gee, go figure that under those circumstances, they sucked at their jobs. How hard was it for the Inspector General of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), H. David Kotz to find items to critique? I am sure the two reports outlining 58 steps to improve the agency’s enforcement and inspections units are perfectly adequate. But the question I want to pose is this: Do they address a decade of neglect? Let’s start with looking at adequate levels of funding and staffing . . . Yes, we need to overhaul how investigators scrutinize tips, plan probes, tap expertise, verify information and train employees, etc. None of these various recommendations are groundbreaking (giving examiners access to industry publications and databases? Establishing protocol for how to analyze this outside information?) The bottom line of the SEC is this: If we are serious about corporate fraud, about violations of the SEC laws, about a level playing field, then we fund the agency adequately, hire enough lawyers to prosecute the crimes, and prevent Congress critters from interfering with the SEC doing its job. To be blunt: So far, there is no evidence we are sincere about making the SEC a serious watchdog with teeth. Congress sure hasn’t been. Staffing levels have been ignored, budgeting has been cut over the years. And its the sort of administrative issue that does not lend itself to bumper sticker aphorisms or tea party slogans. The SEC doing its job correctly is about good government — like picking up the trash, haivng the trains run on time, or hiring quality teachers. Its not sexy, its not fun, its administrative policy wonk junk. This is something we have become increasingly lousy at doing as a society as we have become ideologically polarized. And as the government has gotten demonized, it becomes even less likely for departments to get proper funding, or to accomplish their basic goals. Give me a good pragmatic technocrat any day . . . (Image via SEC .)

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Property Perils

September 30, 2009

Real estate investment trusts have been on a tear over the summer and are now nearly ahead of the broad S&P 500 for the year. Chalk the early rally up

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NCUA advises CUs on mortgage mods, financial trends

September 30, 2009

unions on how best to handle the ‘unprecedented levels’ of mortgage defaults. Matz encouraged credit unions that originate real estate loans to work with their borrowers to modify their loans, if needed. Potential loan modifications suggested by the NCUA

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Home Prices: Robert Shiller: 5 More Years of Stagnant Real Estate

September 30, 2009

Robert Shiller, the Yale University economist who famously predicted the housing bust, was awarded the Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics today. In this interview, he talks about the state of the housing market and the implications of low interest rates.

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CIC buys stake in Kazakh oil and gas

September 30, 2009

size: Metro Business World National Sports Feature Opinion GALLERY DOWNLOADS CAMPUS Business | Automobile | Banking | | Real estate // Home Business EnergyCIC buys stake in Kazakh oil and gas By Fu Chenghao | 2009-10-1 | NEWSPAPER EDITION function

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Tobacco Giant Crafts D.C. Council Legislation

September 30, 2009

The Washington Examiner reports Wednesday that lobbyists from the Altria Group, owner of tobacco company Philip Morris, are the principal authors of new D.C. Council legislation that (among other provisions) will give city businesses the right to ban smoking from within 25 feet of a storefront entrance. Councilman Phil Mendelson, who introduced the bill, benefited from a $500 campaign contribution from Altria the day he introduced the legislation. Such crappy optics! LobbyBlog awards one “Tsk.” There are two bills: One with the 25 feet provision ( PDF ) and another ( PDF ) that forbids the sale of single cigars, or “blunts,” which are commonly hollowed out and refilled with weed. The Examiner explains why Altria is behind this legislation: Altria’s Black and Mild are the nation’s top-selling cigars and control almost a quarter of the market. Because they’re sold in five-packs, [Cigar Association of America] President Norman Sharp said the ban on single cigars would boost Black and Mild sales. Additionally, the proposed weight standards would allow the company to put all of its cigars in two-packs — the minimum requirement. This is essentially the same strategy Altria deployed when it backed the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act, which gave the Food and Drug Administration new powers over the tobacco industry. The New York Times reported in June that Altria was positioning itself to gain a possible advantage over competitors: [A]s the industry’s richest company, with profits last year of more than $3 billion, Altria, based in Richmond, Va., has built an extensive scientific research operation. It may thus be the company best equipped to deal with the F.D.A.’s new review process for new, ostensibly safer tobacco products. That bill had another cookie for the industry: it banned cigarette flavors, but not menthol. From Slate’s Big Money : “It is a dream come true for Philip Morris,” Michael Siegel, a professor at the Boston University School of Public Health, told me. “First, they make it look like they are a reformed company which really cares about reducing the toll of cigarettes and protecting the public’s health; and second, they protect their domination of the market and make it impossible for potentially competitive products to enter the market.” Other tobacco companies have taken to calling the bill the “Marlboro Monopoly Act of 2009.” Click here to read the Examiner ‘s sharp story, which includes Mendelson’s reaction when it was explained to him how the bill could help Altria.

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Vicor Corporation Appoints Liam K. Griffin to Its Board of Directors

September 30, 2009

ANDOVER, MA–(Marketwire – September 30, 2009) – Vicor Corporation ( NASDAQ : VICR ) announced today the appointment of Liam K. Griffin to its Board of Directors, effective October 1, 2009. Concurrent with approval of Mr. Griffin’s appointment, the Board also approved the expansion of the Board to nine members. Mr. Griffin, 42, currently serves as Senior Vice President, Sales and Marketing, for Skyworks Solutions, Incorporated, a designer, manufacturer and marketer of performance analog and mixed signal semiconductors that enable wireless connectivity. Previously, he was employed by Vectron International, a division of Dover Corp., as Vice President of Worldwide Sales from 1997 to 2001, and as Vice President of North American Sales from 1995 to 1997. His prior experience included positions in marketing and engineering with units of AT&T Corp.

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Harry Moroz: Prediction Impossible: How Protecting Consumers Is Like Protecting the Environment

September 30, 2009

The financial crisis has left conservative policymakers on their guard. The notion that all financial innovation is good is not holding water and wonks on the right are scrambling to concoct viable alternatives to the Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA) advocated by the White House and, in a weaker form, by Rep. Barney Frank’s Financial Services Committee. In testimony to that committee today, Heritage Foundation scholar David John suggested that a CFPA “would be a huge mistake that would hurt consumers far more than it helps them.” Instead, John proposed the creation of the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC). The Council would examine regulatory standards set by individual states and federal regulators in order to create uniform standards that apply to all financial institutions and meet “the challenges posed by complex new financial products.” Beyond the obvious shift away from consumer protections invoked by the name of the council and beyond the disingenuousness suggested by the unwieldiness of the name and its acronym (we all know acronyms cannot be longer than four letters), the FFIEC would continue to allow — even encourage — regulatory arbitrage (shopping among states for lax regulators); would give financial institutions continued access to their preferred mode of influence (rulemaking regulators); and would abandon any strong mandate to protect consumers first. There are numerous other responses to the financial crisis being discussed, ranging from the G-20′s peer review strategy to super-regulators and safeguards for systemically important institutions. One of the commonalities of these approaches, including the FFIEC, is that they are primarily strategies to prevent crises, not predict them. Unlike CrimeStat programs , for instance, that can reveal concentrations of criminal activity at which police forces target resources, these proposals target resources first. This is primarily because the severity of financial crises is hard to predict. As the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco pointed out this week: [Our analysis bodes] poorly for the success of early-warning models going forward…We conclude that constructing a plausible statistical model that can predict financial crises similar to the current one will be challenging. The effort to address climate change involves a similar challenge. We know global temperatures are rising and we know the types of risks this poses to our economic and physical well-being. But it is extremely difficult to predict with certainty when or how serious these risks will be in, say, 20 years. Sure, the IPCC can formulate models that estimate impacts, but technological changes and government intervention will inevitably alter these impact estimates significantly. Again, all we can say with certainty is that climate change is happening and the impacts will be negative, just like we can identify , as the FRBSF also points out, “signals of rising levels of risk in the economy.” If we knew, say, that sea levels would rise only in City A, then perhaps our best and cheapest strategy would be to move City A and its residents to higher ground. Similarly, if we knew, say, that financial innovation A would cause a financial meltdown, we would do best to eliminate it. The problem, however, is that such predictions are extremely difficult (impossible) to make. Instead, we must rely on strategies to create predictable, relatively stable conditions that can provide us a better idea of where, when, and even what type of good and bad things are going to happen. For instance, climate change legislation in Congress sets clear goals for emissions reductions that offer control of how quickly social costs of global warming are created, rather than permitting the private sector to create costless externalities at will. The Consumer Financial Protection Agency, more than John’s FFIEC and the other proposals for financial system reform, seeks to create such stable conditions in the financial sector. By using consumer well-being as a first principal, the CFPA will consider the social costs of financial innovations. Without consideration of these social costs (and benefits) in recent years, the financial services industry sowed the seeds of a crisis without even knowing it. Reforms like the FFIEC would do little to take these social costs into account. Though regulators are unlikely to ever know whether a particular financial innovation will lead to financial collapse, the CFPA offers significantly more knowledge about whether financial innovations are hurting or helping the country as a whole.

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Davidson Realty Launches Corporate Blog

September 30, 2009

com, will serve as an important source of information for sales agents, new home shoppers and sellers and real estate industry professionals. The Davidson Realty blog will be updated frequently with relevant information about community and area

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Lackman Commercial Group Addresses Commercial Real Estate Distress and Opportunities

September 30, 2009

Scottsdale, AZ The session will be a fast paced, practical look at the coming deluge of distressed properties ” Chicago Assn of Real Estate Exchangers (agent members) ” Northern Illinois Commercial Assn of Realtors (NICAR) ” Society of Industrial and

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Recovery, Globalisation: Two sides of same economic coin

September 30, 2009

Recovery, Globalisation: Two sides of same economic coin

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EU gives conditional approval to Panasonic-Sanyo merger

September 30, 2009

EU gives conditional approval to Panasonic-Sanyo merger

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Japan’s factory output continues to recover in Aug.

September 30, 2009

Japan’s factory output continues to recover in Aug.

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Toyota to recall 3.8 million vehicles in U.S.

September 30, 2009

Toyota to recall 3.8 million vehicles in U.S.

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Felix Resources (ASX:FLX) To Demerge South Australian Coal and List It on ASX

September 30, 2009

Felix Resources (ASX:FLX) To Demerge South Australian Coal and List It on ASX

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Australian Market Report of September 30: US Consumer Confidence Dropped

September 30, 2009

Australian Market Report of September 30: US Consumer Confidence Dropped

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NewSat Limited (ASX:NWT) Response to EWC’s Corrective Announcement

September 30, 2009

NewSat Limited (ASX:NWT) Response to EWC’s Corrective Announcement

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Murchison Metals Limited (ASX:MMX) Mineral Resource Update On The Rocklea Iron Ore Project

September 30, 2009

Murchison Metals Limited (ASX:MMX) Mineral Resource Update On The Rocklea Iron Ore Project

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SAMTAN Board Approves A$22.5 Million Investment In Bandanna Energy Limited (ASX:BND)

September 30, 2009

SAMTAN Board Approves A$22.5 Million Investment In Bandanna Energy Limited (ASX:BND)

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German unemployment falls to 8% in September

September 30, 2009

German unemployment falls to 8% in September

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Eurozone inflation remains below zero in September

September 30, 2009

Eurozone inflation remains below zero in September

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Greenspan Predicts U.S. Economy Will Slow in 2010 as Stocks `Flatten Out’

September 30, 2009

By Albert R. Hunt and Rich Miller Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he sees the U.S. economy slowing next year as the surge in stocks comes to an end. “The odds are we flatten out,” Greenspan said today in a Bloomberg television interview, referring to the equity market. “That flattening out will put some sort of dull face on 2010.” Greenspan said he expects the economy to grow at a 3 percent to 4 percent annual pace in the next sixth months before slowing down. As a result, unemployment isn’t likely to decline much from last month’s 9.7 percent, he said. Even so, he doesn’t expect the economy to relapse into recession next year. The world’s largest economy shrank at a 0.7 percent annual rate from April through June, the best performance in more than a year, revised figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Gross domestic product contracted at a 6.4 percent pace in the first three months of 2009. Growth will be boosted in the near term by the inventory cycle as companies bring stockpiles of goods into line with sales, he said. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has jumped 55 percent since its low for the year on March 9, an ascent that’s had a “very positive” impact on the economy, Greenspan said. To contact the reporter on this story: Rich Miller in Washington rmiller28@bloomberg.net

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Odierno Accelerates U.S. Troop Withdrawal as Iraqi Military Takes Charge

September 30, 2009

By Viola Gienger Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — Army General Ray Odierno , the U.S. commander in Iraq, said he will be able to reduce the number of American troops in the country to 120,000 by the end of October, faster than he originally planned. The U.S. force of 124,000 on the ground now is already down from 143,500 in January, Odierno told the House Armed Services Committee at a hearing in Washington today. The psychological effect of the June 30 handover of security control in cities to the Iraqi government has been “profound,” he said. “The Iraqis wanted to be in charge, they wanted the responsibilities, and they have demonstrated that they are capable,” Odierno said. Odierno is charged with organizing an orderly withdrawal of all combat troops by August, as required under an agreement the two countries signed earlier this year. At the same time, the U.S. wants to continue supporting the Iraqi security forces as tensions mount between Arabs and Kurds and the country prepares for elections in January. “We do not want to lose the security progress that has been made,” Odierno said. The reduction in force was made possible by a significant decrease in violence, even considering a spurt of attacks after the June 30 handover. As an example, two brigades in Anbar province, a former insurgent stronghold, have been replaced with one, he said. Security Response The Iraqi government and its security forces also responded “promptly and effectively” after two bombings in Baghdad on Aug. 19 that targeted the ministries of Finance and Foreign Affairs, Odierno told the panel. Odierno didn’t specify how many troops he plans to have by the end of the year. U.S. officials want the January elections to help further reconciliation among Iraq’s Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds. Odierno said in July that tensions between the Kurdish Regional Government in the north and the Shiite-led central government in Baghdad worry him most. “I still believe Arab-Kurd tension is the No. 1 driver of instability inside Iraq,” Odierno told the committee today. While the U.S. is nudging the two sides along, “this is something that they have to resolve,” he said. Odierno has said he is concerned at the prospect of disputes between the centrally controlled Iraqi Army, which also includes Kurdish troops, and separate peshmerga units controlled by the semi-autonomous Kurdish government. Joint Patrols He is trying to persuade the two sides to organize joint patrols with the U.S. forces to reduce tensions in disputed areas along the internal boundary such as the city of Kirkuk, the hub of northern oilfields. Iran still poses a concern, Odierno said. Militants are still being trained in Iran and entering Iraq, and forces still find caches of rockets and explosive projectiles that can be traced back to Iran, he said. “Unfortunately, we still see some malign intent from Iran,” Odierno said. To contact the reporter on this story: Viola Gienger in Washington at vgienger@bloomberg.net

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Earthquakes Off Indonesia, Samoa Kill Hundreds; Victims Trapped in Rubble

September 30, 2009

By Gavin Evans and Achmad Sukarsono Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — Rescuers in the South Pacific’s Samoan islands searched for victims of a tsunami that killed at least 141 people, while a magnitude-7.6 temblor in Indonesia left 75 dead and trapped thousands in crushed buildings. The Samoan-area quake was followed by the second temblor about 16 hours later, 6,000 miles (9,600 kilometers) to the west in an Indonesia region that the country’s vice president said had been rendered inaccessible by land. The quakes were unrelated, seismic analysts said. “This was indeed a major disaster,” said Craig Fugate , the administrator of the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency, in a conference call on relief efforts in American Samoa. Emergency officials are sending aid to the U.S. territory even before they assess the damage and casualties, he said. The magnitude-8.0 earthquake south of Samoa, the world’s largest in two years , triggered yesterday’s tsunami and left 110 people confirmed dead in the island nation. The toll may rise as emergency workers search for bodies buried in the sand, Radio New Zealand said, citing the nation’s Disaster Management Office. Waves of at least 20 feet (6 meters) devastated area resorts, a Red Cross worker, Sati Young, told the station. At least 24 people were killed in American Samoa and as many as seven in Tonga, the station said. Thousands Trapped Indonesia’s government said that 75 people died on Sumatra in the city of Padang and that houses were destroyed by the quake, which hit off the island’s south coast at 5:16 p.m. local time today. Thousands are trapped in rubble, the British Broadcasting Corp. said, citing officials. A tsunami watch was in place briefly from Indonesia to India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Sri Lanka and Australia’s Cocos Islands. The death toll may rise, Vice President Jusuf Kalla told reporters in Jakarta. “The condition there is very bad,” Kalla said in a press briefing. “Many houses were destroyed. There is a huge rain tonight and the lights are out. Access through land has been cut.” The government will provide food and other relief aid to survivors for two months, he said. A tsunami generated by a magnitude-9.1 earthquake off northern Sumatra in December 2004 left about 220,000 people dead or missing in 12 countries around the Indian Ocean as it traveled as far as Kenya and Somalia in Africa. Yesterday’s quake off Samoa was the deadliest since a magnitude-6.3 temblor struck Italy in April, killing 300. Villages Swamped The tsunami destroyed villages on the southern coast of Samoa’s largest island, Upolu, and left many people missing, the New Zealand station cited Disaster Management Office official Ausegalia Mulipola as saying. At least one of those killed is from New Zealand and other New Zealanders may be among the dead, the country’s government said. New Zealand schools are on vacation, with many families spending the break in southern Samoa, Radio New Zealand said. A 5-foot wave was reported within about 20 minutes of the quake at Pago Pago, the capital of American Samoa, the U.S. Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said. Waves may have been as high as 15 feet in other parts of the island, Eni Faleomavaega , the territory’s delegate to the U.S. Congress, told Agence France- Presse. The Pacific tsunami monitoring system worked well, alerting countries at risk “within minutes,” though Samoa’s proximity to the quake’s epicenter meant residents had little time to flee to higher ground, AFP reported, citing Badaoui Rouhban, director of the section for disaster reduction at the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization in Paris. Tsunami’s Speed “The speed at which a tsunami moves can be considerable, it can be equivalent to the speed of a plane, at 800 kilometers per hour,” he told AFP. Changes in the sea level were observed in Japan and along the U.S. West coast. The occurrence of the two major quakes within 24 hours is “just coincidental,” Randy Baldwin, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Boulder, Colorado, said in a telephone interview. The quakes were on different fault lines. “It’s approximately 6,000 miles between the two locations so there’s no connection between the two, and even if they were closer there still probably wouldn’t be any connection,” said Baldwin. “These are just very active areas.” President Barack Obama declared a “major disaster” in American Samoa, the White House said in an e-mailed statement. The declaration makes government funding immediately available for aid and rebuilding in the territory, which has a population of about 65,600. FEMA Aid FEMA is looking at sending aid to American Samoa by air and sea, and the territory’s airport has reopened, Fugate said. Emergency provisions in Hawaii will be sent as needed, he said. The quake struck shortly before 7 a.m. local time on Sept. 29 about 125 miles south of Samoa’s capital, Apia, at a depth of 11 miles, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Tsunami warnings were issued for Fiji, New Zealand, Tonga, the Cook Islands and 16 other nations. It may take another day for the final death toll to be known, New Zealand’s Deputy Prime Minister Bill English said. Bodies are being brought into Apia, while the sea along Samoa’s southern coast is being searched. “The majority of the deaths so far are elderly or children because they were less able to escape the tsunami as it came in,” he told Radio New Zealand. Airstrip Out At least five people are reported dead on Tonga’s northern island of Niuatoputapu , New Zealand Foreign Minister Murray McCully told journalists in Wellington. The airstrip on the island is out of action and may have been damaged, he said. In Samoa, coastal residents were evacuated to higher ground after the quake. Tsunami drills earlier in the year may have helped reduce the death toll, Radio Polynesia journalist Jonah Tui Le Tufuga told Radio New Zealand. Cars and parts of houses were left floating in the sea, he said. The nation of about 180,000 people consists of 10 islands and lies about 1,740 miles north-northeast of New Zealand. It’s about 50 miles northwest of Pago Pago on Tutuila, American Samoa’s principal island. Australia will deploy a taskforce to Samoa within 24 hours, Foreign Minister Stephen Smith told ABC Radio yesterday. One Australian was killed in Samoa, the ministry said. To contact the reporters on this story: Gavin Evans in Wellington at gavinevans@bloomberg.net ; Achmad Sukarsono in Jakarta at asukarsono@bloomberg.net .

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New York City Sells $970 Million of Build America Bonds, Taxable Offerings

September 30, 2009

By Jeremy R. Cooke Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — New York City sold $800 million of Build America Bonds and $170 million of additional taxable securities without a federal subsidy to fund public works, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Build America Bonds, for which the federal government pays 35 percent of the interest cost, were priced at face value with rates ranging from 4.589 percent on obligations due in October 2022 to 5.676 percent on October 2034 securities. The other taxable issue, not eligible for the subsidy, has interest rates ranging from 1.472 percent on two-year notes to 4.053 percent on securities due in 2017. A group of underwriters led by Morgan Stanley is handling the taxable portion of the city’s deal. Final pricing on a planned $900 million refinancing of tax-exempt debt, handled by Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch & Co., wasn’t available. To contact the reporter on this story: Jeremy R. Cooke in New York at jcooke8@bloomberg.net .

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Macquarie to Buy Investment Bank Fox-Pitt Kelton for About $146.7 Million

September 30, 2009

By Josh Fineman and Ambereen Choudhury Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — Macquarie Group Ltd., Australia’s largest investment bank, agreed to buy Fox-Pitt Kelton Cochran Caronia Waller LLC, an investment bank focused on financial services, for about $146.7 million. The price includes $130 million in equity value and $16.7 million in long-term debt, Sydney-based Macquarie said in a statement today. The purchase is expected to close in the fourth quarter. Fox-Pitt, founded in 1971, employs 267 people, with about 50 percent in the U.S. Macquarie Chief Executive Officer Nicholas Moore is shifting the bank’s focus from buying and pooling assets to providing investment services after asset writedowns halted 16 years of rising profits. Last month, the Australian bank agreed to buy Lincoln National Corp.’s asset-management business for $428 million. The Fox-Pitt acquisition is the “ideal way to expand our financial institutions presence beyond the Asia-Pacific into North America and Europe,” Tim Bishop , president of Macquarie Capital in the U.S., said in the statement. “Acquiring a specialist firm like FPK is a prime example of Macquarie’s expansion on both sides of the Atlantic.” In May, Macquarie agreed to buy Tristone Capital Global Inc. for C$116 million ($108 million) to expand its energy business in Canada. Cochran and Caronia Fox-Pitt’s George Cochran and Len Caronia will become chairmen of Macquarie Capital’s global financial institutions advisory business. Fox-Pitt President John Waller will co-head Macquarie’s global financial institutions business with Macquarie’s Andrew Low . Charles Myers , Fox-Pitt’s global head of FIG Equities, will take a similar role with Macquarie Securities as an executive director. Fox-Pitt is the 26th-biggest U.S. equity underwriter this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Fox-Pitt also worked on 11 merger transactions globally, worth a combined $986 million, the Bloomberg data show. Fox-Pitt is controlled by a group including J.C. Flowers & Co., the New York-based private-equity firm run by J. Christopher Flowers ; Fox-Pitt executives; and Gary Parr , a deputy chairman at Lazard Ltd. The Flowers group bought it from Swiss Reinsurance Co. in 2006 and combined it with Cochran Caronia Waller, a Chicago- based investment bank, the following year. To contact the reporters on this story: Josh Fineman in New York at Jfineman@bloomberg.net ; Ambereen Choudhury in London at achoudhury@bloomberg.net

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Five Top U.K. Banks Said to Agree to Impose G-20 Bonus Limits on 2009 Pay

September 30, 2009

By Gonzalo Vina Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — Britain’s five biggest banks agreed to impose limits on bonus pay following a meeting with Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling earlier today, adopting a program sketched out by the Group of 20 nations. Darling met the heads of compensation committees from HSBC Holdings Plc, Barclays Plc, Lloyds Banking Group Plc, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Standard Chartered Plc to get them to sign up to the principles, the Treasury said. The rules restrict the amount they can devote to their bonus pools and how much they can set aside for deferred payments to executives and traders. They also allow the institutions to “claw backs” pay if the deals arranged by individual bankers go sour. Softening his rhetoric from earlier in the week, when Darling denounced “greed and recklessness” in the banking industry, the chancellor today said that institutions were taking “a responsible and long-term approach to remuneration.” Darling is seeking to limit political fallout from bankers awarding themselves large bonuses as taxpayers underwrite a bailout with total potential liabilities worth 1.4 trillion pounds ($2.2 trillion). The G-20 rules won’t cap individual bonuses awarded to bankers. Instead they set guidelines for institutions to follow. Banks, in a joint statement released by the Treasury, said they will work with the Financial Services Authority to implement the changes. They will implement the principles even though they won’t become law in the U.K. until next year. BBA Comment The British Bankers’ Association said today U.K. banks are giving their “strong support” to measures that will delay bonus payments by up to five years. The lobby group welcomed proposals in David Walker ’s government-commissioned report published in July. It reviewed the link between pay and risk- taking and suggested banks disclose top traders’ pay. A spokesman for HSBC said the bank is already broadly compliant with the code and was comfortable that any necessary changes would not be significant for the bank. The bank said it was important that the code was applied internationally. The agreement applies to senior executives and traders who could imperil a bank with their market positions. Banks will be forced to ensure bonuses don’t erode their capital base excessively, and banks taking too much risk will be required by regulators to hold more capital. Bonus pools will have to account for future risk, and up to 60 percent of such compensation will be deferred over three years. At least half of it paid in shares. Darling yesterday blamed the “stupidity” of bankers for bringing Britain’s financial system to within hours of collapse last year. Tougher rules on bonuses would help prevent a repeat of the crisis, he said. To contact the reporter on this story: Gonzalo Vina in London at gvina@bloomberg.net

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U.S. Stocks Fluctuate on Quarter’s Final Trading Day as Commodities Gain

September 30, 2009

By Elizabeth Stanton Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks fluctuated as a falling dollar boosted commodities and investors bought equities on the last day of the market’s biggest quarterly rally in a decade, offsetting an unexpected drop in a gauge of business activity. Cisco Systems Inc. and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. helped lead technology and commodity shares higher. CIT Group Inc., the 101-year-old commercial lender, tumbled 36 percent on growing concern it will be forced into bankruptcy. The dollar dropped against most major currencies, helping push oil and metal prices higher. “You’re seeing buyers putting money to work into the end of the quarter,” said Michael James , a managing director at Wedbush Morgan Securities in Los Angeles. “The third quarter has been extremely strong and I don’t think you’re going to see bulls completely walk away from the market knowing the quarter ends today.” The S&P 500 slipped added 0.1 percent to 1,059.51 at 1:46 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3.25 points, less than 0.1 percent, to 9,738.95. The S&P 500 has jumped 15.3 percent in the third quarter, building on a 15.2 percent rally in the April-to-June period. The rally has sent price-earnings valuations in the index this month to the highest levels since 2004. The measure has rebounded 57 percent from a 12-year low in March. Stocks slumped earlier after the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said its business barometer decreased to 46.1, lower than the most pessimistic forecast, from 50 in August. Readings below 50 signal a contraction. Companies cut payrolls by 254,000 jobs in September, according to ADP Employer Services. ‘Flatten Out’ Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he sees the U.S. economy slowing next year as the surge in stocks comes to an end. “The odds are we flatten out,” Greenspan said today in a Bloomberg Television interview, referring to the equity market. “That flattening out will put some sort of dull face on 2010.” Greenspan said he expects the economy to grow at a 3 percent to 4 percent annual pace in the next sixth months before slowing down. As a result, unemployment isn’t likely to decline much from last month’s 9.7 percent rate, he said. Even so, he doesn’t expect the economy to relapse into recession next year. Ameriprise Financial Inc. gained 14 percent to $36.98. The Minneapolis-based wealth management and insurance firm agreed to buy the Columbia stock and bond funds from Bank of America for as much as $1.2 billion in cash. Nike, Jabil Nike Inc. jumped 7.8 percent to $64.77. The world’s largest athletic-shoe maker posted first-quarter profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates as it cut marketing and personnel costs and prices improved. Jabil Circuit Inc. climbed 8.9 percent to $13.37. The electronic-parts maker forecast first-quarter earnings excluding some items of at least 24 cents a share, topping the average estimate of 16 cents from analysts in a Bloomberg survey. CIT Group Inc. slumped 36 percent to $1.40 on concern it will be forced into bankruptcy. The 101-year-old commercial lender is considering an offer of financing from Citigroup Inc. and Barclays Capital, people familiar with the situation said. Bondholders are also seeking to provide about $2 billion in loans as a restructuring deadline approaches tomorrow, said the people, who declined to be identified because the negotiations are private. CIT may choose other options, the people said. Darden Restaurants Inc. fell the most in the S&P 500, declining 6.6 percent to $33.78. The owner of the Olive Garden and Red Lobster chains said first-quarter sales dropped 2.3 percent, missing analysts’ estimates. Quarterly Rally All 10 of the main industry groups in the S&P 500 advanced in the third quarter, led by a 26 percent rally in financial shares, 22 percent gains in industrial and commodity companies, a 20 percent advance by consumer discretionary stocks and a 17 percent increase from technology companies. Gannett Co., the nation’s largest newspaper publisher, posted the steepest advance in the index, more than tripling in the quarter. Hartford Financial Services Group Inc., Wynn Resorts Ltd. and Tenet Healthcare Corp. more than doubled. Recovering Economy The gains came amid speculation the economy was returning to growth following the worst recession in seven decades. Home prices stabilized, consumer confidence strengthened as job losses abated and the ISM said manufacturing activity ended an 18-month contraction in August. The performance of the U.S. economy is probably more sluggish than reflected in stock markets, risking a correction in equities, Nobel Prize-winning economist Michael Spence said. U.S. stock-market investors have “over processed” the stabilization of growth in the world’s largest economy, Spence said in an interview in Kuala Lumpur yesterday. The U.S. economy isn’t likely to experience a “double-dip” slowdown even as that remains a risk, said the professor emeritus of management in the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University. Alcoa will be the first company in the Dow average to release third-quarter earnings next week, set for Oct. 7. Analysts expect profits in the S&P 500 to drop 22 percent on average in the third quarter before rebounding 63 percent in the final three months of the year, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. “Third quarter data is going to show for many companies enough indications that indeed the economy bottomed in July,” said William Greiner , chief investment officer at Scout Investment Advisors in Kansas City, Missouri, which manages $8.5 billion. “It’s hard not to be bullish in the face of what I see as 20 to 25 percent earnings growth rates over the next few quarters.” The International Monetary Fund today cut its projection for global writedowns on loans and investments by 15 percent to $3.4 trillion, citing improvements in credit markets and initial signs of economic growth. To contact the reporter on this story: Elizabeth Stanton in New York at estanton@bloomberg.net .

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Alan Farnham: Healthcare Hindenburg

September 30, 2009

Combatants on both sides of the health care debate should pause October 4th to observe a relevant anniversary. They should turn their eyes to a hillside in France where, nearly eight decades ago this Sunday, a fiery explosion killed 54. That disaster marked the end of one of the most dramatic and unequivocal head-to-head competitions between private enterprise and government ever waged. In the late 1920s, England saw the need to knit its far flung dominions together by air. Airplanes being, at that time, unreliable in performance and limited in range, it was decided to use dirigibles — ones bigger, stronger and more sophisticated than any that had gone before. To create them, the Labour government pitted socialism against capitalism to see which could build the better blimp. Two airships were ordered: one built by a private company; the other by the government’s own workshops. Both had to meet the same design criteria and performance standards; but how these were achieved was left up to their respective designers. “Let the best man win,” was the attitude. “There are still lessons to be learned from this peculiar experiment of government and private enterprise working in direct competition,” wrote novelist Nevil Shute Norway in his autobiography, Slide Rule . Norway, before achieving world renown as an author, worked as an engineer on the private industry airship, designated R100. Where R100′s builders strove to show a profit — economizing wherever possible and adopting only well-proven technology — the builders of the government airship, R101, labored under no such constraint. They had the treasury at their disposal, and so could give wing to their imaginations, indulging in all manner of experiments with methods and materials. One example: Though R100′s team had determined by calculation that their ship could be steered by the strength of a single man turning a conventional wheel, R101′s team decided the same job could better be done by a heavy electric servo motor. Costs spiraled upward. Years ticked by. By 1929, when R100 was ready to go, the government’s ship still languished in its shed unfinished. When R100 flew, it flew faster than its stipulated speed. It voyaged successfully from England to Canada and back, upping pressure on the government to show what its craft could do. R101, upon completion, was slow, and so heavy that it could barely lift its own weight. It was cut in half, and a new bay inserted to allow it to carry more lifting gas. The story of what happened next with R101 is complicated; but most historians believe political pressures were allowed to take precedence over engineers’ advice and questions of safety. The ship, still plagued by problems, was ordered to perform. On the night of October 3rd, R101 set off in bad weather on her maiden flight to India. She got no farther than France. At 2AM on the the 4th, the people of Beauvais were awakened by a gigantic fireball and explosion: the apocalyptic end to the government’s airship, which, after slowly losing altitude had collided with a hill. The last radio message received from her said: “After an excellent supper our distinguished passengers smoked a final cigar, and, having sighted the French coast, have now gone to bed.” Less distinguished than extinguished: All but six aboard had died. So undone were the English by this tragedy that the private ship, R100 — airworthy and blameless — was ordered scrapped, her dissected corpse rolled flat by a steam roller. No doubt history can be combed to find occasions where government’s solution trumped one put forward by the private sector. But with R101′s burning wreck freshly in mind, I think I’ll take a pass on healthcare’s public option.

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Chicago Purchasing Index, Job-Loss Data Signal Sluggish Economic Recovery

September 30, 2009

By Courtney Schlisserman and Bob Willis Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. recovery may be slow to develop as a gauge of business activity dropped unexpectedly and a private report showed employers cut more jobs than forecast in September. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its business barometer decreased to 46.1, lower than the most pessimistic forecast, from 50 in August. Readings below 50 signal a contraction. Companies cut payrolls by 254,000 jobs in September, according to ADP Employer Services. Stocks fell on concern a rebound may be uneven as the government winds down incentives such as the “cash-for- clunkers” program that lifted sales at automakers including Detroit-based General Motors Co. With excess capacity close to a record, companies have little reason to hire new workers or ramp up production until they see stronger gains in demand. “The pace of improvement will probably slow,” said Rob Carnell , chief international economist at ING Financial Markets in London, whose forecast for a reading of 49.5 for the Chicago index was the lowest among 61 economists surveyed. “You strip away a lot of the stimulus and we’re not seeing a whole lot of improvement in the U.S. economy.” The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.4 percent to 1,056.51 at 12:42 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 44.58 points, 0.5 percent, to 9,697.62. More than two stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange. Gross on Growth The economic recovery will be characterized by “new normal” annual growth rates of 1 percent to 2 percent and very little inflation, Bill Gross , manager of Pacific Investment Management Co., the world’s biggest bond fund, said in an interview yesterday with Bloomberg Radio. Gross said he’s been buying longer-maturity Treasuries in recent weeks as protection against deflation, or a broad decline in prices, and that total returns on equities will average about 5 percent annually. Economists forecast the Chicago gauge would rise to 52, according to the median of 61 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 49.5 to 55. The ADP report was forecast to show a decline of 200,000 jobs, according to the median of 33 estimates. A report from the Commerce Department showed the worst U.S. recession since the 1930s eased more than anticipated in the second quarter. The world’s largest economy shrank at a 0.7 percent annual rate from April through June, the best performance in more than a year, according to revised figures. Gross domestic product contracted at a 6.4 percent pace in the first three months of 2009. National Manufacturing Economists watch the Chicago index for an early reading on the outlook for overall U.S. manufacturing, which makes up about 12 percent of the economy. The national Institute for Supply Management, which is not affiliated with the Chicago group, is scheduled to release its September factory report tomorrow. According to a Bloomberg survey, that measure will show manufacturing expanded at the fastest rate in more than three years. U.S. auto sales in September probably fell to the second- lowest pace this year after the federal government ended its $3 billion incentive to trade in gas-guzzlers for more fuel- efficient vehicles. Automakers report September sales tomorrow. Smaller inventories may contribute to a rebound in output this quarter and next as companies restock shelves. Stockpiles dropped at a record $160.2 billion annual rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department’s GDP report showed. Automakers General Motors and Ford Motor Co. are among firms boosting production in coming months. Unemployment Forecast The ADP employment report comes two days before a Labor Department release forecast to show the unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent in September, the highest since 1983, while employers cut 180,000 jobs. ADP includes only private employment and doesn’t take into account hiring by government agencies. Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in St. Louis produces the report jointly with ADP. The economy has lost 6.9 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the most of any economic slump since the Great Depression. The drop in GDP, the sum of all goods and services produced, was less than the 1.2 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 78 economists. The government previously calculated the pace of contraction for last quarter at 1 percent. Worst Recession The world’s largest economy shrank 3.8 percent since last year’s second quarter, making this the deepest recession since the 1930s. Consumer spending , which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, fell at a 0.9 percent pace last quarter, less than the government previously estimated. The median forecast of economists surveyed projected spending would be unrevised at a 1 percent drop. The economic recovery is “slow but certain,” FedEx Corp. Chief Executive Officer Fred Smith said this week, adding he has “guarded confidence” about an improving global outlook. “Recovery is not a straight line up, but a zig-zag with a few steps forward and backward,” Smith, the founder of the second-largest U.S. package-shipping company, said at FedEx’s annual meeting in its hometown of Memphis, Tennessee. To contact the reporters on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net ; Courtney Schlisserman in Washington at cschlisserma@bloomberg.net .

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