By Eliana Raszewski Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) — Uruguay’s Jose Mujica , a former guerrilla leader who promises to maintain the ruling coalition’s economic policies, is poised to be elected president in a runoff vote today. Mujica, who is the governing Frente Amplio coalition candidate, has 49.6 percent support, compared with 42.1 percent for former President Luis Alberto Lacalle of the opposition National Party , according to a Nov. 25 poll by Montevideo-based Interconsult. “This government has been successful, and citizens appear to want to support it,” said Juan Carlos Doyenart, a political analyst who runs the polling company. “It’s really difficult for Mujica not to win the election.” Mujica, 74, who was imprisoned for more than a decade by the military juntas that ruled Uruguay in the 1970s and 1980s, campaigned on pledges to continue the policies of President Tabare Vazquez . Since taking office in March 2005, Vazquez, 69, has cut the unemployment rate to 7.3 percent in September from 12.3 percent, encouraged record foreign investment, increased social spending and boosted wages, Doyenart said. In last month’s first round, Mujica, who was a leader of the Tupamaros guerrilla movement, took 47.5 percent of vote, short of the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff. Lacalle received 28.5 percent, and Colorado Party candidate Pedro Bordaberry , who later endorsed Lacalle, finished third with 16.7 percent. Mujica, a former farmer, lawmaker and agriculture minister, says he will hand control of the economy to running mate Danilo Astori , who was Vazquez’s economy minister for four years before stepping down last year to be eligible for elected office. ‘Same Course’ “Economic policy will continue on the same course, taking advantage of the experience of Vazquez’s government,” Astori said at a Nov. 25 news conference in Melo, Uruguay. “We’ll keep betting on an investment climate that has had lots of results. We want higher investment, growth and employment levels because that’s the genuine basis for social reform.” Under Vazquez, central bank reserves almost quadrupled to $7.9 billion, and the country boosted trade with the U.S., Europe and Asia. In 2007, Finland’s Metsae-Botnia Oy opened a $1.1 billion pulp mill in the city of Fray Bentos, Uruguay’s biggest-ever investment. “The next government will need to continue to consolidate macroeconomic stability, with responsible management of public finances,” said Erich Arispe , 32, an analyst at Fitch Ratings in New York. Uruguay should change the composition of its debt, most of which is denominated in foreign currencies, making it “more vulnerable to the exchange rate,” said Arispe. Economic Growth The government forecasts the economy will expand 1.2 percent this year and 3.5 percent in 2010, spurred by rising prices for soybean, wheat and beef exports. Uruguay is the world’s eighth-largest exporter of beef, and shipments may climb 2.9 percent next year as global demand grows, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service. Lacalle, 68, who governed Uruguay from 1990 to 1995, said he would slow integration with Mercosur trade bloc partners Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay and seek to expand trade with countries such as India and China. He has said the ruling coalition had “failed miserably” in dealing with crime. Uruguay’s credit rating outlook was raised to positive from stable in July by Fitch Ratings, citing in a report the South American country’s “strengthening macroeconomic policy framework.” Fitch rates Uruguay’s foreign debt BB-, or three levels below investment grade. About 2.6 million Uruguayans are eligible to vote, the country’s electoral court said on its Web site . The next president takes office in March. The country sold $500 million of bonds in September to help fund future expenses amid a rally in emerging market bonds. Prices for the bonds, due in 2025, have climbed 6.6 percent to 108.14 cents on the dollar since Sept. 22. The yield has fallen to 6.07 percent from 6.66 percent since the bonds were issued. To contact the reporter on this story: Eliana Raszewski in Buenos Aires at eraszewski@bloomberg.net






