December 2009

Ohio Wooing Tata Consultancy, Wipro as U.S. States Look to India for Jobs

December 30, 2009

By Mehul Srivastava and Moira Herbst Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — Ohio Governor Ted Strickland is quick to admit that he doesn’t “particularly enjoy heights.” So why would he climb into a cherry picker to be lifted 40 feet in the air? To show off a 196,000-square-foot office park in the Cincinnati suburb of Milford to executives from Tata Consultancy Services , India’s biggest tech company and a thriving part of the Tata Group conglomerate. To sweeten the deal, Strickland threw in $19 million in tax credits and invited the TCS crew to a state dinner at the governor’s mansion. “The economy is difficult,” Strickland says in the Jan. 11 issue of Bloomberg BusinessWeek. “I will go wherever I can to find jobs.” TCS said yes, and in November Strickland showed up at the sprawling wooded campus for a ceremony to mark the hiring of the 300th employee at what has become the cornerstone for TCS’s North American efforts. Tata has hired some 250 graduates of Ohio State University, the University of Cincinnati, and other nearby schools. Soon the facility may employ as many as 1,000 Americans doing back-office and technology outsourcing for U.S. health-care companies and local governments. Atlanta, Dallas With the economy growing again but unemployment stuck at double-digit levels, states and municipalities across the U.S. are scrambling to woo anyone with hiring plans-even if that means going hat in hand to the same bunch that have been responsible for hundreds of thousands of jobs going overseas. Dallas, Atlanta, Minneapolis, and Tallahassee have all been actively courting Indian tech outfits. Wipro Technologies in March inaugurated a center in Atlanta, which now has 350 employees-nearly 300 of them Americans, including senior managers recruited from U.S. tech rivals. Infosys Technologies , meanwhile, is planning an operation in Dallas, to target some of the $52 billion the U.S. government will spend on outsourcing work just in 2010. For the Indians, American facilities can mean more work on government and health-care projects — areas where laws prevent the transfer of data overseas. An on-the-ground strategy gives them access to local workers who can better understand cultural nuances. And it lets them better compete against American rivals such as IBM and Accenture , which tend to win lucrative consulting contracts that hinge on solving complicated business problems on site, rather than simply writing computer code for cheap wages in India. Public Relations? “We need to become more efficient, more sophisticated,” says Sambuddha Deb, a Wipro vice-president who makes sure Wipro’s India-based and foreign employees work seamlessly together. “It’s not just about setting up software factories” in India. Some critics say that the new centers are little more than political cover and that they do little to boost employment in the U.S. “One reason they are doing this is for public relations,” says Ron Hira, an expert on offshoring at Rochester Institute of Technology. “They want to send the message, ‘We’re creating jobs for Americans.’” It’s true that the jobs the Indians have created in the U.S. are a rounding error compared with their overall workforce. Even as it hired a few hundred American employees in 2009, TCS took on tens of thousands of newbies in India. And TCS has more than 11,000 Indians working in the U.S. on temporary visas, while Wipro has 7,000. U.S. Recession That could change if a Senate bill introduced in April makes it through Congress. The measure would bar companies with more than 50 U.S.-based employees from using temporary visas for more than half their U.S. workforce, effectively forcing Indian IT companies to hire more Americans. A further concern for Indian companies is that hiring Americans is far more expensive than shipping work off to India. TCS staffers in Milford, for instance, earn more than $50,000 per year, vs. the $7,000-$8,000 that Indians doing similar work make in Bangalore. “Offshore outsourcers’ wonderful profitability has largely been on the back of labor arbitrage,”” says Peter Bendor- Samuel , CEO of Everest Group, a Dallas consulting firm that advises companies on outsourcing strategies. “Those profits surely would take a hit if the Indian companies start hiring more Americans.” Work in India TCS already had to delay opening the Ohio center for almost six months during the recession in the U.S. And Wipro says its Atlanta operation isn’t yet profitable. Both say American facilities are unlikely to create huge numbers of new jobs in the U.S. soon. For several years, at least, the vast majority of work will continue to be done in India and other low-cost countries, according to Surya Kant, North America president for TCS. “But many (clients) want work to be done in the same time zone, and we want to be closer to our customers,” Kant says. “Increasingly, we will move that work to centers like Cincinnati.” For Strickland and other officials in places where jobs have disappeared as carmakers go bust and steel production moves overseas, the new jobs — and the taxes they generate — are rare good news. “I certainly don’t see it as consorting with the enemy,” says Strickland, who ended up sharing a table with Tata Group Chairman Ratan Tata and India’s Commerce Minister Anand Sharma at the Nov. 25 White House State Dinner for Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh . “These are good, solid jobs,” adds the governor. “Jobs that we feel will be long-term, and that we hope will increase in numbers.” Tata is one of several outside contractors that gather and supply data distributed through the Bloomberg Professional Service. To contact the reporters on this story: Mehul Srivastava in New Delhi at msrivastava6@bloomberg.net ; Moira Herbst in New York at mherbst3@bloomberg.net

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Iran Government Loyalists Hold Anti-Opposition Rallies Following Protests

December 30, 2009

By Henry Meyer and Ali Sheikholeslami Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — Crowds of government supporters massed in the Iranian capital Tehran, some calling for the death of Iran’s opposition leaders, as the police warned it will crush any further anti-regime protests. State television showed live footage of the pro-government street rallies today, three days after security forces violently dispersed the biggest opposition demonstrations in six months, in which eight people were killed. Iran has detained about 1,000 people since the Dec. 27 protests in Tehran and other cities, the New York-based International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran said. The disputed June re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has sparked the worst unrest since the overthrow of the Shah in the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Iran yesterday accused Western countries of inciting the latest demonstrations. The U.S. and European Union states have condemned the authorities’ use of violence, a factor that could harden Iran’s stance toward its nuclear dispute with the West, analysts said. General Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam , Iran’s police chief, said there will be “no mercy” for anyone who takes part in opposition rallies, the state-run Fars news agency reported. He said that what he called a period of leniency was over, Fars said. “Anyone attending such rallies will be crushed.” Protesters Arrested The police arrested 500 people on Dec. 27, Ahmadi-Moghaddam said, adding that 120 officers were injured during that day’s clashes. Other demonstrators have since been detained by intelligence services, he said. “The information available once again suggests excessive acts of violence by security forces,” UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay said in a statement from Geneva today. “Those who have been arrested, for whatever reason, must be accorded due process.” In today’s counter-rallies, some people could be heard on state television shouting “Death to Mousavi” and “Death to Karrubi.” Opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi , a former prime minister, was the main challenger in the June 12 election. Former parliament speaker Mehdi Karrubi was another opposition candidate in the June poll, which he and Mousavi said was rigged. The crowds in Tehran held up photos of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who led the Islamic Revolution, and set fire to a British flag. ‘Nauseating Masquerade’ Ahmadinejad yesterday called the opposition protests a foreign-backed “nauseating masquerade” in comments cited by the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency . Iran’s foreign ministry summoned the British ambassador after U.K. Foreign Secretary David Miliband said Iranian citizens were showing “great courage.” The renewed unrest comes as the U.S. and its allies step up pressure on Iran to prove it’s not seeking to build nuclear weapons. The U.S. government has threatened to impose more sanctions after a Dec. 31 deadline unless Iran responds to diplomatic efforts aimed at securing international controls over its nuclear work in return for better ties with the West. Kazakhstan today denied a report that it planned to supply Iran with a large consignment of uranium as “groundless insinuations” in a statement posted on the Kazakh Foreign Ministry’s Web Site . The Iranian mission at the United Nations also issued a statement denying the report. The Associated Press said that Iran was close to agreeing on a deal to clandestinely import 1,350 tons of purified uranium ore from Kazakhstan. It cited an intelligence report. Uranium Enrichment Iran has refused UN demands to suspend enrichment of uranium, which can produce material for a bomb or to fuel power stations. The oil-rich Persian Gulf country says its nuclear activities are purely aimed at generating electricity. The U.S. is preparing limited sanctions against Iran that would target elements of the regime rather than broader economic sanctions that could alienate the Iranian people, the Washington Post said today, citing unidentified U.S. officials. “The U.S. should be very careful not to impose broad-based sanctions that hurt the people, not the regime,” said Trita Parsi, head of the Washington-based National Iranian American Council, the largest U.S.-Iranian association. The worst thing the Obama administration could do right now is to provide ammunition for efforts to “wipe out the opposition,” Parsi said in a phone interview from New York. Post-Election Unrest Opponents of Ahmadinejad have been protesting since the June election. The government said 36 people were killed in a crackdown in the aftermath of the vote, while the opposition said twice as many died. About 4,000 protesters were detained and more than 140 have been put on trial. Unrest flared again this month at the funeral of a leading clerical opponent of Khamenei, Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran said it feared that the 1,000 detainees, who include prominent opposition activists and journalists, would be tortured to produce false confessions that the protests were instigated by foreign governments. “We’re seeing a pattern of the government shooting itself in the foot with brutality,” Parsi said. “At the moment, the momentum seems to be with the opposition.” To contact the reporter on this story: Henry Meyer in Dubai at hmeyer4@bloomberg.net ; Ali Sheikholeslami in London at alis2@bloomberg.net .

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Illinois Leads $9.8 Billion of Municipal Bond Sales Planned for Early 2010

December 30, 2009

By Jeremy R. Cooke Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — Illinois will lead states and municipalities bringing to market at least $9.8 billion of fixed-rate bonds in the opening weeks of 2010, after a lull in sales to close out this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Illinois, the second-lowest rated U.S. state after California, will offer $3.47 billion of taxable notes to be repaid over five years to contribute to public employee pension funds for the fiscal year that ends June 30. Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s cut Illinois’ credit ratings this month as it resorts to such borrowing to help bridge a budget gap of almost $12 billion. Next week’s sale will be Illinois’ first issue of “medium- term notes for its pension system,” Governor Pat Quinn ’s budget office said in a Dec. 16 statement. Preliminary sale documents will be available as soon as today, Kelly Kraft, a spokeswoman for the office, said in a Dec. 23 e-mail. The state borrowed $10 billion in June 2003 with the largest single sale of taxable municipal bonds, to mature through 2033. The need to close its budget deficit at the time and pay money owed to workers’ retirement systems also prompted that sale. Illinois taxable general obligation bonds due in June 2015 from the deal traded on Dec. 28 at prices set to produce an average 3.9 percent yield, about 130 basis points more than comparable-maturity Treasuries, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The state’s so-called spread at issue six years ago was 75 basis points more than 10-year benchmark U.S. notes. Tax-Exempt Yields Yields on tax-exempt bonds with top ratings due in 10 years held at a four-week high of 3.05 percent yesterday, according to a daily survey by Municipal Market Advisors of Concord, Massachusetts. Moody’s, which rated Illinois Aa3 in June 2003, ranks the state two levels lower at A2. S&P and Fitch Ratings each ranked the state AA six years ago. Today, Illinois has S&P’s A+ and Fitch’s A, two and three ratings lower than before. Underwriters led by JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Loop Capital Markets LLC will market Illinois’ new debt to investors. Bear Stearns Cos., which JPMorgan took over in 2008, handled the earlier $10 billion deal. Taxable sales grew this year to make up 21 percent of fixed-rate municipal issuance because of the federally subsidized Build America Bond program, from 9 percent the year of Illinois’ record pension deal, Bloomberg data show. The federal government rebates 35 percent of the interest on the bonds. Build America Bonds Among issuers planning to sell Build America Bonds beginning next week are Miami-Dade County’s Aviation Department, New Jersey’s Transportation Trust Fund Authority and New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority. The Illinois offering is taxable since federal rules preclude proceeds from tax-exempt borrowings from going into funds that invest in potentially higher-yielding investments such as stocks. The Build America initiative subsidizes capital for government projects that would otherwise be tax-exempt such as schools, roads, and transit lines. A lesser share of tax-free issues in the municipal market has helped to drive performance in mutual funds at a time when record amounts of cash are seeking a shelter from federal income taxes that may rise after Bush administration cuts expire in 2011. Investors injected $67.9 billion in new cash into municipal bond mutual funds this year through Dec. 16, according to preliminary data compiled by the Washington-based Investment Company Institute. The previous record year was 1993, when net new cash flow for munis totaled $38.3 billion. Open-End Funds Open-end funds have returned an average 14.8 percent this year and exchange-traded funds have gained 10.6 percent, according to Bloomberg data. Closed-end funds, which don’t continually issue new shares, have rallied 47 percent, on average, the data show. The BofA Merrill Lynch Municipal Master Index, which climbed 14.4 percent this year through Dec. 28, is headed for its best performance since 2000, when the increase was 17.2 percent. The total return for the decade ending tomorrow is 88 percent, or an annualized 6.5 percent. Following are descriptions of additional pending sales of municipal bonds in the U.S. NEW JERSEY TRANSPORTATION TRUST FUND AUTHORITY plans to borrow about $850 million next month to finance road, bridge, rail and bus projects in the most densely populated state. The offering, through banks led by Barclays Plc, will include a mix of zero-coupon, tax-exempt securities and taxable Build America Bonds, according to Moody’s Investors Service. The debt, backed by state appropriations, is rated A1 by Moody’s, A+ by Fitch and AA- by S&P. (Updated Dec. 30) MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, the most populous county in the U.S. Southeast, will sell $600 million of bonds backed by revenue from Miami International Airport, the largest U.S. gateway to Latin America, the week of Jan. 11. As much as 30 percent of the issue will be taxable Build America Bonds. Sales to individual investors will occur Jan. 12, with sales to institutions the following day. Proceeds will be used to repay $375 million of commercial paper, with the rest used on the airport’s $6 billion expansion. Underwriting will be led by Citigroup Inc. S&P rates the bonds A-. (Added Dec. 17) LOWER COLORADO RIVER AUTHORITY, which manages electricity generation and water use in the region around Texas’s Colorado River, intends to offer about $426 million of tax-exempt bonds as soon as next week through Barclays to refinance debt. They will mature from 2010 through 2020, according to preliminary offering documents. The bonds are rated A+ by Fitch, A1 by Moody’s and A by S&P. (Updated Dec. 30) NEW YORK’S METROPOLITAN TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY, the largest U.S. mass-transit agency, plans to sell $350 million of taxable, federally subsidized Build America Bonds the week of Jan. 4 through banks led by JPMorgan Chase & Co. The debt is backed by revenue from the MTA’s bus, subway and commuter-rail networks, state and local government subsidies, dedicated taxes and operating surpluses from the agency’s toll bridges and tunnels. Proceeds from the bonds, rated A2 by Moody’s and A by S&P and Fitch, will fund projects to repair and improve the MTA’s transit and commuter systems in and around New York City. (Added Dec. 22) NEW JERSEY’S HIGHER EDUCATION STUDENT ASSISTANCE AUTHORITY plans to sell $338 million of fixed-rate, tax-exempt bonds backed by student loan revenue the week of Jan. 11. The proceeds will allow the authority to buy back and retire auction-rate securities and to fund loans that allow education borrowers to consolidate multiple borrowings into one regular payment. Banks led by Merrill Lynch will handle the offering. Ratings on the deal are AA from S&P and Aa2 from Moody’s, and maturities will range from 2011 through 2037. (Updated Dec. 18) PORT OF HOUSTON AUTHORITY , overseer of the busiest shipping port in the U.S. by foreign tonnage, plans to sell as much as $327.2 million of tax-exempt bonds backed by property taxes collected in Harris County, Texas. Underwriters led by Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch & Co. will handle the deal as soon as next month. The transaction will refinance debt that the port can buy back, either through call options or investor tenders. Interest on all except $40.5 million of the bonds can be excluded from calculations of the federal alternative minimum tax. The debt that may be refinanced was issued in 1997, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2008, preliminary bond sale documents show. (Added Dec. 18) OHIO, the seventh most-populous state, intends to offer $271 million of tax-exempt general-obligation bonds in a refinancing to provide savings for the current two-year budget. Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch & Co. leads underwriters and will set prices and rates on the debt in the week of Jan. 4. The latest issue is part of a plan to shift $736 million in debt payments to future fiscal years from the biennium ending June 30, 2011, without extending final maturities, according to Standard & Poor’s. The debt to be refunded originally paid for higher education, common schools and infrastructure improvement. The state is rated AA+ by S&P, Aa2 by Moody’s and AA by Fitch. (Added Dec. 24) MARYLAND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORP., which issues tax- exempt bonds to encourage business in the state, plans to sell almost $260 million in debt as soon as next month as part of a marine-terminal concession with Ports America Chesapeake. The money raised will fund state transportation projects and an expansion of Seagirt Marine Terminal to make it big enough to handle some of the world’s largest cargo vessels. The Port of Baltimore’s container facility will be leased for 50 years to Ports America, controlled by Highstar Capital, a New York-based private-equity firm. The debt, secured by terminal revenue, received a provisional Baa3 rating from Moody’s. A group of underwriters led by Goldman Sachs will market the debt to investors. (Added Dec. 22) To contact the reporter on this story: Jeremy R. Cooke in New York at jcooke8@bloomberg.net .

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Aiful Credit-Default Swap Sellers May Pay $975 Million to Settle Contracts

December 30, 2009

By Abigail Moses Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) — Sellers of default insurance on Aiful Corp. debt may have to pay out about $975 million to settle contracts on Japan’s third-biggest consumer lender, according to CMA DataVision prices. Aiful triggered a settlement auction of credit-default swaps when it agreed to extend the maturity of loans to avoid bankruptcy, the International Swaps & Derivatives Association’s Japan Determinations Committee ruled yesterday. The cost of Aiful swaps implies that sellers of protection on $1.3 billion of the company’s debt will pay 75 cents on the dollar to settle contracts, CMA prices show . The ruling ends a three-month dispute that threatened to undermine confidence in Japan’s default swaps market. The committee previously rejected three requests to trigger the contracts, citing a lack of publicly available information on which to make a judgment, even though Aozora Bank Ltd. said it hadn’t been paid by Kyoto-based Aiful. “This is significant in Japan’s credit-default swaps history,” said Junichi Shimizu , an analyst at Deutsche Bank AG in Tokyo. “It will be a precedent.” The dispute over Aiful swaps helped expose flaws in Wall Street’s system for determining payments on derivatives linked to the debt of defaulted companies less than a year after securities firms changed practices to avoid overreaching regulation. Policy makers demanded more transparency after the meltdowns 15 months ago of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and American International Group Inc., two of the largest traders, froze credit markets. Goldman Demand Aiful faced possible failure after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. this month demanded that its 3.7 billion yen in loans be repaid. The company offered to settle the borrowing at a discount to win the New York-based lender’s support for its restructuring proposal, two people familiar with the matter said on Dec. 11. The company said last week it would delay payments on 280 billion yen ($3 billion) of debt until Sept. 30 next year and ISDA’s Japan committee ruled the delay constituted a so-called restructuring credit event. Credit-default swaps are derivatives, contracts with values derived from assets or events, including stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, interest rates or the weather. Banks, hedge funds and insurance companies use the swaps to insure bonds and loans against default or to speculate on the creditworthiness of countries and companies. Japan Auction It’s the first time swaps on a Japanese company will be settled at auction and may set a model for future events. Japan Airlines Corp. plunged to a record in Tokyo trading yesterday on speculation the company may seek bankruptcy protection. A total 2,780 contracts were outstanding on Aiful debt as of Dec. 25, making it the second-most insured Japanese borrower after the government, according to Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. in New York, which runs a central registry that captures most trading. Credit-default swaps on Aiful cost $6.4 million in advance and $500,000 a year to protect $10 million of debt from default for five years, according to London-based CMA prices on Dec. 15, the last day data was available. Run by founder and Chief Executive Officer Yoshitaka Fukuda , Aiful hasn’t sold bonds in public markets since March 2007 and reported a record first-half loss of 282.3 billion yen in November. It struggled with debt after a crackdown by authorities on excessive interest rates made Japan’s consumer lenders liable to pay billions of dollars of refunds. Aiful said Dec. 24 it will have repaid 76 billion yen by June 10, 2014. It also said 2,095 employees will retire by Feb. 28, helping reduce annual staff costs by 13 billion yen, and that it took a one-time charge of 5.8 billion yen for the cuts. To contact the reporter on this story: Abigail Moses in London at Amoses5@bloomberg.net

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Treasuries Are Little Changed After $32 Billion Sale of Seven-Year Notes

December 30, 2009

By Daniel Kruger Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — Treasuries were little changed after the government sold $32 billion of seven-year debt, the last of three note sales this week totaling a record-tying $118 billion. The securities drew a yield of 3.345 percent, compared with an average forecast of 3.372 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of four of the Federal Reserve’s 18 primary dealers. The bid-to- cover ratio, which gauges demand by comparing total bids with the amount of securities offered, was 2.72. The average ratio at the last 10 auctions was 2.56. “The back-up in yields makes them moderately more attractive,” Christian Cooper , an interest-rate strategist at Royal Bank of Canada’s RBC Capital Markets in New York, said before the auction. The firm is one of 18 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve and are obligated to bid in Treasury auctions. “It feels like that is the tone.” The yield on the current seven-year note fell one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 3.30 percent at 1:03 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The last auction of seven-year debt, a $32 billion offering in November, drew a yield of 2.835 percent, the lowest since April. The bid -to-cover ratio was 2.76. Indirect bidders, a class of investors that includes foreign central banks, purchased 44.7 percent of the notes today. At the November sale, they bought 62.5 percent, compared with an average for the past 10 sales of 50.7 percent. Treasuries earlier were little changed. They have fallen 3.6 percent this year, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes, as the U.S. stepped up debt sales to help spur growth in an economy recovering from its deepest recession in six decades. Unprecedented Amounts President Barack Obama is borrowing unprecedented amounts for spending programs. U.S. marketable debt increased to a record $7.17 trillion in November from $5.80 trillion at the end of last year. The U.S. sold $42 billion of five-year securities yesterday and $44 billion in two-year notes on Dec. 28. Today’s auction was “the last hoop the market has to jump through in 2009,” said James Collins , an interest-rate strategist in the futures group in Chicago at Citigroup Inc., one of 18 primary dealers that trade with the Fed and are obliged to participate in Treasury auctions. “Yields have been trending higher. It’s been a response to increased supply.” Holders of U.S. debt have made a return of 81 percent over the past decade, according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. That compares with an 8 percent loss for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index . Yield Curve The so-called Treasury yield curve, a barometer of the health of the U.S. economy, widened to a record earlier this month as investors bet an accelerating recovery will fuel inflation and hurt demand for the unprecedented sales of government debt. The gap between U.S. 2- and 10-year yields widened to a record 2.88 percentage points on Dec. 22, from 1.45 percentage points at the beginning of the year. The spread was at 2.72 percentage points today. Companies in the U.S. expanded more than anticipated in December as orders and employment grew, a report today by the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. showed. The group’s business barometer rose to 60, more than forecast in a Bloomberg News survey and the highest level since January 2006. Readings above 50 signal expansion. Bernanke’s Outlook An index of home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose in October for a fifth consecutive month, the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index showed yesterday. Confidence among U.S. consumers increased in December for a second month, the New York-based Conference Board’s consumer confidence index showed yesterday. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has cited a tame inflation outlook as a reason for keeping the target interest rate for overnight loans between banks at a record low zero to 0.25 percent. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, a gauge of trader expectations for consumer prices, show the improving economy may change sentiment and spark further bond declines. The gap between yields on Treasuries and TIPS due in 10 years, a measure of the outlook for consumer prices, expanded to 2.43 percentage points yesterday, the widest since July 2008. It was 2.41 percentage points today. To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Kruger in New York at dkruger1@bloomberg.net

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U.S. Companies Expand by Most Since 2006 in Sign Recovery Is Gaining Speed

December 30, 2009

By Bob Willis Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — Companies in the U.S. expanded in December at the fastest pace in almost four years, signaling the economic recovery is gaining speed heading into 2010. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its business barometer rose to 60, exceeding the most optimistic estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the highest level since January 2006. Readings above 50 signal expansion. Stimulus programs and discounting have propelled a rebound in global sales that is reducing stockpiles, which may spur manufacturers to further increase production in coming months. Caterpillar Inc. is among companies that may recall dismissed staff, pointing to gains in employment that will give consumers the means to boost spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy. “Manufacturing is now moving into recovery,” said David Sloan , senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, whose estimate was the highest among economists surveyed. “Inventories are rebuilding and exports are looking strong, with the Asian economies looking firmer and the dollar weak.” Stocks drifted between gains and losses as lower metal prices dragged down commodity producers, offsetting the rise in the business barometer. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 0.3 percent to 1,123.37 at 10:58 a.m. in New York. Exceeds Estimates Economists projected the Chicago index would drop to 55.1 from 56.1 in November, based on the median estimate of 53 projections in the Bloomberg survey. Forecasts ranged from 52 to 58.5. The group’s gauge of orders climbed to the highest level in more than two years and its measure of employment showed growth for the first time since November 2007, the month before the recession began. Indexes of production and order backlogs also improved. Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of bulldozers and excavators, will bring back some laid-off workers next year as sales improve, said Chief Executive Officer Jim Owens . “We’ll gradually begin to call people back and to rebuild our overall sales and ability to ship product,” Owens said in a Dec. 11 interview with Bloomberg Television. “I think it will gradually begin to pick up as 2010 unfolds.” Caterpillar cut about 18,700 full-time jobs and about the same number of temporary workers since December 2008 as the global recession reduced demand. The Peoria, Illinois-based company predicts 2010 sales will increase as much as 25 percent from the midpoint of the 2009 forecast range. Early Indicator Economists watch the Chicago index for an early reading on the outlook for overall U.S. manufacturing, which makes up about 12 percent of the economy. The group has said their membership includes both manufacturers and service providers, making the gauge a measure of overall growth. The Tempe, Arizona-based Institute for Supply Management’s factory index probably rose this month to 54 from 53.6 in November, according to a survey median. That report is due Jan. 4. The world’s largest economy expanded at a 2.2 percent pace from July through September after a yearlong contraction that was the worst since the 1930s, figures from the Commerce Department showed last week. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast growth to pick up to a 3 percent pace in the fourth quarter and average 2.6 percent for all of 2010. Exports rose for the sixth month in October as economies worldwide rebounded from the global economic slump. A 13 percent drop in the dollar since March 5 against a basket of six major currencies also making American goods more competitive to overseas buyers. Inventories Increase Inventories at U.S. companies rose in October for the first time in more than a year, the government said Dec. 11, a sign firms are boosting production in line with rising sales. United Parcel Service Inc. Chief Executive Officer Scott Davis said Dec. 2 that shipping demand was starting to improve as companies rebuild inventory and consumers began holiday shopping. UPS, the world’s largest package-delivery company, is considered a bellwether for the economy because it handles goods ranging from auto parts to electronics to clothing. “Inventory has gotten real low,” Davis said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We think there will be some replenishment of inventories going forward, so the outlook is much better.” — With assistance from Will Daley in Chicago and Betty Liu in New York. Editors: Carlos Torres , Vince Golle To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

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Marc Hershon: Seven Soloist Resolutions for 2010

December 30, 2009

It’s not just the start of a new year but, when the clock ticks midnight on December 31st, we’ll be into a whole new decade. The end of the aughts. As in “we ought to have just skipped the last ten years.” Fortunately, with our book I Hate People! now available as your guide for navigating the office oafs in the workplace, it’s a perfect time to make some resolutions. Changes designed to allow you to be a highly productive Soloist who has also learned how to enjoy your job. 1. I Resolve To Grab A Quick 10 The Quick 10 is the Soloist way to start slicing out a little “me” time in the middle of what could be a hectic day. It’s not a coffee break or some other corporately dictated downtime, but ten minutes of your very own. So pick your spot. Maybe it’s 9:40 in the morning. Or 2:12 in the afternoon. Whenever that Quick 10 time is for you, grab it and stick to it. Let everyone know you’re “tied up for a few minutes”. Then maximize those precious Soloist minutes to do what you need to do. Whether it’s the crossword puzzle or finishing a report doesn’t matter. What matters is that you’ve staked your claim on ten glorious minutes. Use it wisely. 2. I Resolve To Clean My Cave A Soloist’s Cave is that spot where you can hide away from the world for a bit. Maybe you use it so you can hyperfocus on the day job tasks. Or perhaps it’s the space to tinker on that screenplay, novel or invention. You might even just grab a snooze. One thing is certain about Caves regardless of their purpose and that is that they gather clutter. That’s okay — creativity is a messy process. But when your Cave gets too out of control, being productive becomes more of a challenge. So make an effort to toss out old papers. Wash that coffee mug. Defrost the mini-fridge. Heck, you could even break out the vacuum cleaner. 3. I Resolve To “Efficient-ize” My Workspace Keeping your cube or office tidy is pretty much a no-brainer for being productive at work. But have you taken a good look at how to make the space more conducive to the way you work? Simply by rearranging a chair or your desk even slightly can discourage drop-in visitors. And take a good look at the patterns you’ve developed doing even simple tasks — we often have things inconveniently out of reach or placed so that accessing supplies keeps the easiest stuff from getting done in a timely manner. Shuffle the things in your desk drawers so that they make more sense and it will help put the “less” into “effortless.” 4. I Resolve To Create A New Ensemble A Soloist’s Ensemble is that neat and nimble replacement for the corporate team. Just a few trusted associates who interact in true productivity to get a specific task done. Chances are you’ve already got at least one together. The problem is that even an Ensemble gets stodgy and slow after a while. So mix yours up a little. Bring in some new blood or even give your current crew a break entirely. Consider bouncing ideas off an out-of-the-office friend who doesn’t do anything close to what you do for a living. The fresher the Ensemble, the fresher the Soloist’s ideas. 5. I Resolve To Find A New Route To Work For some, given their location and situation, this may be an all-but-impossible resolution. But however you can manage it, discovering a new way to get to the job (and get back home again) can spark a whole new wave of creative productivity. The new sights, sounds and people you’ll encounter can’t help but have you seeing the world in a different way. If you normally drive, try public transit. If you normally bus it, jump on a bike. Remember that the journey is the destination. Not to mention if your usual route goes out of commission — be it by traffic accident, bureaucratic blunder or natural disaster — you’re still good to go. 6. I Resolve To Find A New Job…In My Old Job As 2010 is unveiled, the economy is still in (hopefully) recovery. But it’s still not a great time to be looking for a new gig, especially if you’ve already got a job. Still, there’s little more exciting than starting something new. So find ways to “remodel” your current employment to make it fresh. Set new goals for yourself. Meet with your boss and discover some new things you can be doing while retiring other tasks that have become tired and maybe redundant. Even think about doing some “task swaps” with other people in your department to both learn some new skills and refresh the way you look at your job. 7. I Resolve To Help Someone Else Become A Soloist While it’s not your job to help others (unless that actually is your job), letting someone else in on the “secret” of becoming a Soloist can often help you discover new Soloist ways yourself. Step One, of course, would be to get them their own copy of I Hate People! Beyond that, inviting them to be part of your Ensemble is a way to let them see how to form their own Ensemble to get things done (don’t be offended if their Ensemble doesn’t include you — you’ve got better things to do, anyway!) Take them on an out-of-the-office Island Hop sometime and your protege Soloist will start to figure out there’s more to work than the daily grind. These are just some resolutions that come to mind when it comes to becoming a better Soloist. This blog has a lot of regular readers who have discovered the Way of the Soloist for themselves — what are some other ways that the enterprising Soloist can kick off the new year? Marc Hershon is the co-author of the business book with attitude, I Hate People (Little, Brown and Company; June 2009) with Jonathan Littman. Marc is a branding expert who, through his Simmer Creative Studio, has created such memorable names as n

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Move Your Money: Tell Us About Your Local Bank

December 30, 2009

As national banks soak up bailout dollars, cut lending , and exploit overdraft fees , a number of Americans have decided to move their money to local banks. While Wells Fargo and Citigroup have made headlines recently for repaying the massive debts they owed to the American taxpayer, people are still frustrated about subsidizing the gambling habits of mega-banks. Yesterday’s post “Move Your Money” generated a lot of comments from readers who want to ditch their accounts with the Too Big to Fail crew. Below is a list of the four mega-banks that took the most government bailout money: 1. Bank of America ($45 billion) 2. Citigroup ($45 billion) 3. Wells Fargo ($25 billion) 4. JP Morgan Chase ($25 billion) (Source: ProPublica) According to Treasury’s most recent report on the bailout, our massive subsidy of the behemoth banks didn’t pay off especially well. Large financial institutions made record profits last year. Neighborhood banks, on the other hand, were forced to sharply increase their rates of consumer loans to fill demand. For these reasons and many, many more, we’re seriously thinking about localnomics. We want to hear how local banks serve communities better. Try the moveyourmoney.info tool to find small banks in your area, or add to the list of community banks below: Send us your videos, stories, and even just locations of the best local banks in America. Visit moveyourmoney.info to learn more and find a community bank near you. It’s easy to participate. Simply click participate below and write out your account. We want to know why some Americans have decided to move their money and why others should.

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SEC’s Schapiro Depicted As An Easily-Influenced, Failed Wall Street Regulator – As Predicted

December 30, 2009

Over at Bloomberg today, Jesse Westbrook unpacks at length on how Securities And Exchange Commission Chair Mary Schapiro is having a hard time bringing about “Madoff-Inspired Reforms” to Wall Street. Schapiro says she’s “driving people hard” at the SEC, and pays lip service to “assur[ing] the safekeeping of [investors'] assets.” God knows that Schapiro should be uniquely inspired to do something to prevent the Madoffs of the future, seeing as how when she was running FINRA (The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority), she fell down on the job of preventing the Madoffs of the past . But something seems to be thwarting the effort. Whatever could it be? Westbrook sort of makes it sound as if every time Schapiro encounters a lobbyist, she gags like Superman confronted by Kryptonite: On Dec. 16, she settled for something less sweeping. Schapiro joined four other commissioners in approving a rule that requires about 1,600 U.S. fund managers to submit to unannounced audits, 83 percent fewer than seven months ago. The revision came after lobbying by fund companies, including executives from T. Rowe Price Group Inc., who met with Schapiro, and Legg Mason Inc., who met with another commissioner, SEC records show. The diminished inspections rule is one of at least four Schapiro announced as a way to protect investors and boost confidence, then later scaled back or delayed. In August, she bought herself more time on a rule to rein in short-sellers, after lobbying by hedge funds. In October, Schapiro put off plans to give investors more power to decide who sits on corporate boards after the U.S. Chamber of Commerce questioned the SEC’s jurisdiction. Right about now, I think it’s worth pointing out that way back in January , the Washington Post ‘s Steven Pearlstein had Schapiro absolutely dead to rights : For the top SEC job, Obama needed to mount a determined search outside the current establishment — someone willing to take no prisoners and question everything about the way the industry does business and the way the government regulates it, someone so capable of channeling the outrage the country now feels that he or she would have industry insiders quaking in their hand-made wingtips . Instead, what we got was someone who not only has been at the very center of a failed regulatory process for the past two decades, but has emerged from it well-liked and acceptable to everyone . You know what’s also great about being “well-liked and acceptable to everyone?” You can fail at your job continually and rarely be subjected to criticism in the press! Of course, it’s not just Schapiro who’s pliable in the grip of financial sector lobbyists. As Robert Kuttner pointed out here , there’s also the president who appointed her: And of course, her appointment is no accident. There were much tougher, more public minded appointees for SEC chair on the short list, but they were blocked by fierce industry lobbying warning that tough regulators would be divisive or controversial — which they indeed would, if they did their jobs. Wall Street fundraisers for Obama used their ample access to resist a tough appointee . People in other power centers, like the Treasury and the White House, did not want a tough and independent SEC. If you think the appointment process exists in some kind of platonic post-ideological vacuum, get real. In his January column on Schapiro, Pearlstein went on to cite the corrupting practices of Wall Street’s “good old days,” pointing out that “for years, no regulator, including Schapiro, was willing to risk being demonized by the industry, criticized by Congress and overturned by the courts to do what was necessary to stop these practices.” Well, guess what? Nothing’s changed. RELATED: Wall Street Waits as SEC Fails to Bring Madoff-Inspired Reforms [Bloomberg] PREVIOUSLY, on the HUFFINGTON POST: Mary Schapiro: WaPo’s Pearlstein Takes On Obama SEC Pick Robert Kuttner: A Tame Regulator For The SEC [Would you like to follow me on Twitter ? Because why not? Also, please send tips to tv@huffingtonpost.com -- learn more about our media monitoring project here .]

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Northlight Closes Distressed RE Fund

December 30, 2009

com People & Companies in the News Alternative investments and asset manager, Northlight Financial, has closed the Northlight Distressed Real Estate Fund, Business Wire reports. The Delaware limited partnership fund is a private investment vehicle, which

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Delta’s Flight 253 Passengers Get Travel Vouchers From Delta After Foiled Terror Plot

December 30, 2009

ATLANTA — Delta Air Lines Inc. is offering travel credits to passengers on the Amsterstam-to-Detroit flight that a suspected terrorist tried and failed to blow up on Christmas. Spokeswoman Susan Elliott told The Associated Press on Wednesday the world’s biggest carrier is notifying passengers about the vouchers. The amount wasn’t disclosed. According to authorities, a Nigerian man who said he was an agent for al-Qaida tried to blow up Northwest Airlines Flight 253 as the plane was preparing to land in Detroit on Friday. It was carrying 278 passengers and 11 crew members. Delta is offering its gratitude to one of the passengers who subdued the suspect. Elliott declined to say whether that passenger would receive additional compensation beyond the travel voucher. Delta, which bought Northwest in 2008, is expected to obtain a single operating certificate from the FAA by Thursday. That would allow the airline, based in Atlanta, to put its code on Northwest flights and phase out the Northwest name. The 23-year-old suspect, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, arrived in Amsterdam on Friday from Lagos, Nigeria, on a KLM flight. Air France-KLM has a joint venture with Delta that involves sharing costs and revenue on trans-Atlantic flights. After a layover of less than three hours in the international departure hall, the suspect passed through a security check at the gate in Amsterdam, including a hand baggage scan and a metal detector, and headed to the Northwest flight. He did not pass through a full-body scanner. Officials said Abdulmutallab apparently assembled the explosive device, including 80 grams of Pentrite, or PETN, in the aircraft toilet, then planned to detonate it with a syringe of chemicals. Passengers intervened, and the plan failed. Abdulmutallab’s name was in one expansive database, but he never made it onto more restrictive lists that would have caught the attention of U.S. counterterrorist screeners, despite his father’s warnings to U.S. Embassy officials in Nigeria last month. Those warnings also did not result in Abdulmutallab’s U.S. visa being revoked. U.S. investigators said Abdulmutallab told them he received training and instructions from al-Qaida operatives in Yemen. Abdulmutallab, charged with trying to destroy an aircraft, is being held at a federal prison in Milan, Mich.

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Is China’s real estate boom a bust?

December 30, 2009

A $5 billion Chinese real estate development has many analysts worried that the real estate market there is overheated

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U.S. Manufacturing Gauge Rises to Highest Since 2006 as Companies Expand

December 30, 2009

By Bob Willis Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — Companies in the U.S. expanded more than anticipated in December as orders and employment grew. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its business barometer rose to 60, the highest level since January 2006, from 56.1 in November. Readings above 50 signal expansion. Fueled by government incentives and discount pricing, rising demand has reduced stockpiles, which may prompt manufacturers to boost production into early 2010. The accompanying increases in the workweek and employment may boost incomes enough to support additional gains in consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy. “Manufacturing is doing much better,” Michael Moran , chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York, said before the report. “A good portion of it is the inventory shift. We were seeing big cutbacks in inventories in prior quarters, so now some firms are building inventories.” Economists projected the Chicago index would drop to 55.1, based on the median estimate of 53 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Forecasts ranged from 52 to 58.5. The Chicago purchasers’ new orders gauge climbed to 63.5 from 62.8 the previous month and the production index rose to 65.8 from 57.6. The employment gauge increased to 51.2, the highest level since November 2007, the month before the recession began. Higher Prices A measure of prices paid for raw materials increased to 54.9 from the prior month’s 52.6, while a gauge of inventories climbed to 39.4 from 34.9. Economists watch the Chicago index for an early reading on the outlook for overall U.S. manufacturing, which makes up about 12 percent of the economy. The Tempe, Arizona-based Institute for Supply Management’s factory index probably rose this month to 54 from 53.6 in November, according to a survey median. That report is due Jan. 4. The world’s largest economy expanded at a 2.2 percent pace from July through September after a yearlong contraction that was the worst since the 1930s, figures from the Commerce Department showed last week. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast growth to pick up to a 3 percent pace in the fourth quarter and average 2.6 percent for all of 2010. Exports rose for the six month in October as economies worldwide rebounded from the global economic slump. A 13 percent drop in the dollar since March 5 against a basket of 6 major currencies also making American goods more competitive to overseas buyers. Stockpiles Rise Inventories at U.S. companies rose in October for the first time in more than a year, the government said Dec. 11, a sign firms are boosting production in line with rising sales. United Parcel Service Inc. Chief Executive Officer Scott Davis said Dec. 2 demand for shipments was starting to improve as companies rebuild inventory and consumers began holiday shopping. UPS, the world’s largest package-delivery company, is considered a bellwether for the economy because it handles goods ranging from auto parts to electronics to clothing. “Inventory has gotten real low,” Davis said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We think there will be some replenishment of inventories going forward, so the outlook is much better.” Recalling Workers The labor market is showing signs of improvement. Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest maker of bulldozers and excavators, will bring back some laid-off workers next year as sales improve, said Chief Executive Officer Jim Owens . “We’ll gradually begin to call people back and to rebuild our overall sales and ability to ship product,” Owens said in an interview Dec. 11 with Bloomberg Television. “I think it will gradually begin to pick up as 2010 unfolds.” Caterpillar cut about 18,700 full-time jobs and about the same number of temporary workers since December 2008 as the global recession reduced demand. The Peoria, Illinois-based company predicts 2010 sales will increase as much as 25 percent from the midpoint of the 2009 forecast range. — With assistance from Will Daley in Chicago and Betty Liu in New York. Editor: Carlos Torres To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

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El Al, Air France Jets Almost Collided After Air-Traffic Controller Error

December 30, 2009

By Gregory Viscusi and Calev Ben-David Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — An El Al Israel Airlines Ltd. passenger plane nearly collided with an Air France airliner over Serbia two days ago because of an air traffic control error, El Al said. El Al flight 007 to New York, a Boeing 777 airliner with 120 passengers, descended from its cruising altitude above Belgrade to establish a safe distance from an Air France plane that was carrying out the faulty instructions of an air controller, El Al said in a statement. The incident was on Dec. 28, it said. The planes passed as close as 300 meters before the El Al pilot steered away, Haaretz reported on its Web site. “The pilot acted accordingly to the situation,” Lior Yavor , senior vice-president of operations for El Al, said in the statement. “At no point was there danger to the passengers, the crew or the plane.” Katarina Andric Milosavljevic, a spokeswoman for Serbia’s Civil Aviation Directorate, said an investigation is under way to determine if air traffic controllers were at fault. Air France declined to comment, referring questions to Serbian authorities. To contact the reporter on this story: Gregory Viscusi in Paris at gviscusi@bloomberg.net ; Calev Ben-David in Jerusalem at cbendavod@bloomberg.net .

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U.S. Business Gauge Climbs to Highest Level Since ’06 as Companies Expand

December 30, 2009

By Bob Willis Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — Companies in the U.S. expanded more than anticipated in December as orders and employment grew. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its business barometer rose to 60, the highest level since January 2006, from 56.1 in November. Readings above 50 signal expansion. Fueled by government incentives and discount pricing, rising demand has reduced stockpiles, which may prompt manufacturers to boost production into early 2010. The accompanying increases in the workweek and employment may boost incomes enough to support additional gains in consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy. “Manufacturing is doing much better,” Michael Moran , chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York, said before the report. “A good portion of it is the inventory shift. We were seeing big cutbacks in inventories in prior quarters, so now some firms are building inventories.” Economists projected the Chicago index would drop to 55.1, based on the median estimate of 53 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Forecasts ranged from 52 to 58.5. The Chicago purchasers’ new orders gauge climbed to 63.5 from 62.8 the previous month and the production index rose to 65.8 from 57.6. The employment gauge increased to 51.2, the highest level since November 2007, the month before the recession began. Higher Prices A measure of prices paid for raw materials increased to 54.9 from the prior month’s 52.6, while a gauge of inventories climbed to 39.4 from 34.9. Economists watch the Chicago index for an early reading on the outlook for overall U.S. manufacturing, which makes up about 12 percent of the economy. The Tempe, Arizona-based Institute for Supply Management’s factory index probably rose this month to 54 from 53.6 in November, according to a survey median. That report is due Jan. 4. The world’s largest economy expanded at a 2.2 percent pace from July through September after a yearlong contraction that was the worst since the 1930s, figures from the Commerce Department showed last week. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast growth to pick up to a 3 percent pace in the fourth quarter and average 2.6 percent for all of 2010. Exports rose for the six month in October as economies worldwide rebounded from the global economic slump. A 13 percent drop in the dollar since March 5 against a basket of 6 major currencies also making American goods more competitive to overseas buyers. Stockpiles Rise Inventories at U.S. companies rose in October for the first time in more than a year, the government said Dec. 11, a sign firms are boosting production in line with rising sales. United Parcel Service Inc. Chief Executive Officer Scott Davis said Dec. 2 demand for shipments was starting to improve as companies rebuild inventory and consumers began holiday shopping. UPS, the world’s largest package-delivery company, is considered a bellwether for the economy because it handles goods ranging from auto parts to electronics to clothing. “Inventory has gotten real low,” Davis said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We think there will be some replenishment of inventories going forward, so the outlook is much better.” Recalling Workers The labor market is showing signs of improvement. Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest maker of bulldozers and excavators, will bring back some laid-off workers next year as sales improve, said Chief Executive Officer Jim Owens . “We’ll gradually begin to call people back and to rebuild our overall sales and ability to ship product,” Owens said in an interview Dec. 11 with Bloomberg Television. “I think it will gradually begin to pick up as 2010 unfolds.” Caterpillar cut about 18,700 full-time jobs and about the same number of temporary workers since December 2008 as the global recession reduced demand. The Peoria, Illinois-based company predicts 2010 sales will increase as much as 25 percent from the midpoint of the 2009 forecast range. — With assistance from Will Daley in Chicago and Betty Liu in New York. Editor: Carlos Torres To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

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The Real Misery Index – November 2009: A Few Positive Trends

December 30, 2009

In a turnaround from recent months, the slight dip in unemployment represents one of the few positive trends in the economy, according to HuffPost’s Real Misery Index. The index dropped from to 32.9 in September-October to 29.6 in November, largely due to a decrease in the U6 unemployment rate, which tracks part-time workers looking for full-time employment and those who’ve given up looking for work. But in general, the numbers are still gloomy with no sign of relief when it comes to credit card delinquencies and home equity delinquencies. And there are some worrisome inflationary trends — though food and beverage prices dipped slightly compared to last year, gasoline prices rose 23.6% compared to November 2008. Despite looming inflation, some observers predict that the Fed will keep interest rates low throughout 2010. TheHousingGuru.com’s John Mulkey writes : “To do otherwise would be to sabotage an economy that has been both erratic and unstable, and would prove fatal in an election year. Though the government will prefer to fight looming inflation, doing so would simply cause the economy to nosedive; and I doubt they’ll be willing to take that risk.” To formulate our index, which provides a better snapshot of the economy than the often-criticized misery index (inflation added to unemployment), we used a more accurate unemployment statistic (the U6 formulation), with the inflation rate for three essentials (food and beverages, gas, medical costs), and year-over-year percent changes in credit card delinquencies, housing prices, food stamp participation, and home equity loan deficiencies. We gave equal weight to the broad unemployment numbers and the combination of the other seven metrics (with housing prices having an inverse relationship to the index). Here is a chart showing the real misery index versus the traditional misery index — which adds the inflation rate to the unemployment rate — for 2009 so far: Get HuffPost Business On Facebook and Twitter !

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Written agreement with Midwest Banc Holdings and Midwest Bank & Trust Co.

December 30, 2009

Written agreement with Midwest Banc Holdings and Midwest Bank & Trust Co.

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Written agreement with Johnson Holdings and East Central Holding Company

December 30, 2009

Written agreement with Johnson Holdings and East Central Holding Company

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Montana Tennis Courts Rebuilt With Stimulus Funds

December 30, 2009

HELENA, Mont. — Federal stimulus money to be spent on new tennis courts in Bozeman drew the ire of Montana’s governor Tuesday – and sparked a brouhaha between the Democrat and Republicans over who is to blame. The issue started with reports that the City of Bozeman decided Monday to spend about $50,000 of its $621,000 in stimulus money to replace aging courts with a new rubber tiled surface – a move the city pointed out was perfectly allowed by stimulus guidelines. But Gov. Brian Schweitzer lashed out at the idea Tuesday. The Democrat said that such a project would have been laughed out of the building if Bozeman had specifically asked the Legislature for it. “Today we read in the newspaper rubber-tiled tennis courts in Bozeman. What are we going to see next?” Schweitzer said. “This wasn’t my intent. This wasn’t the intent of Congress.” Schweitzer said Republicans in the Senate are really to blame. The governor said he sought a detailed list of projects, each with a dollar amount, and believes Republicans blocked the idea. Republicans said that’s not true, and counter that in the end they agreed on the exact spending language sought by House Democrats. “It is the same list that was in the House version that he said he liked,” said Sen. John Esp, R-Big Timber. “He said the House did a good job, and had a list. So we put it back in there word for word.” The governor’s office said it wanted a more specific, detailed line-by-line list of each project, than was in either the House, Senate or final versions of the stimulus spending bill. Republican Sen. Bob Story, R-Park City, said he thinks lawmakers did it right by not doling out the money to specific city projects. Story said local governments and their residents should have control over what to do with the money for their communities. “We weren’t completely comfortable with the process that local governments went through in putting their wish list up to the governor. That came up through the process pretty fast,” Story said. “Also we were concerned that if the governor didn’t like someone’s projects, he would go through and line-item veto it.” Bozeman city commissioner and deputy mayor Jeff Krauss says criticism of the project is flawed. He said many cities are improving park infrastructure – an item specifically cited as acceptable in the stimulus bill. Krauss said the improved tennis courts were requested by city residents, along with a climbing wall the city is using the federal money for. “I don’t think the problem in this country is that Bozeman is fixing a park project,” Krauss said. “I think the problems in the country have more to do with every little thing that hits the news being turned into partisan politics.”

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Dear John Thain: 2010 Will be Challenging for Goldman Sachs

December 30, 2009

I. Introduction This article isn’t going to talk about the charged arguments that are normally thrown around when talking about Goldman. (Should the public have funded them? Was AIG a bailout for Goldman, orchestrated by the government? Have public funds allowed Goldman to profit off of public money? Has Goldman created the crisis? Is Lloyd Blankfein a Virgo or from Mars? Exactly which deity’s work is Goldman doing?) These questions, regardless of the merit or the level of interest, will not be discussed here. I think these clarifications are important because of two recent pieces on the bank (both after this piece was mostly written). The first was a piece written by Charlie Gasparino. The second was the much more riveting, much better-supported, and much longer piece by Bethany McLean at Vanity Fair . I feel it’s important to address Mr. Gasparino’s theories and arguments here, head on, before diving into the salient issues. Throughout this article I’ll need to point out his flawed reasoning, lack of rigor and depth in his arguments, and a fundamental lack of understanding. I will dismantle Mr. Gasparino’s arguments and examine his flawed assumptions, and his claims that have poor or missing support. The motivation for drawing these distinctions is simple: our conclusions are very similar and I do not want anyone confusing my well-reasoned and informed arguments for his. II. Recent History Goldman, often maligned (remember the “fight” between two of the least informed people on the planet? ), has had a good year. They survived the credit crisis, paid back the treasury in short order, and have continued to make money (use whatever definition of that you’d like: stay cashflow positive, generate revenue, generate earnings, etc.). However, the future looks to be very challenging for the firm — their profitability will likely not remain at the recent, elevated levels. To understand why, we must first look at the recent past (and explain some things). To examine Goldman, it might help to think of the firm as a large pool of money — this is the money that is actually owned by Goldman’s shareholders, or the equity they own in Goldman (shareholders equity). When Goldman wants to purchase securities or make an investment in a company, it uses some of this equity and borrows the remainder (depending on the investment, the ratio of Goldman’s money to borrowed money can go from 1:1 to 1:100; the exact amount depends on the risks of the given investment). To help put some numbers on it, Goldman’s leverage in the third quarter was 13.5x (meaning 13.5 dollars of assets for every dollar of equity, or 12.5 dollars borrowed for every dollar Goldman shareholders owned), versus a long-term average of around 22x, and went as high as around 28x in recent years. Then, when Goldman exits its investment, the borrowed money is returned–only the profits or losses and Goldman’s capital remain. (As an example, let’s say Goldman buys a bond for $100. In our example it borrows $99 and contributes $1 itself, or uses leverage of 100x. If that bond’s goes up by $1, Goldman can sell the bond, return the $99, recoup its $1 investment and the $1 profit — this is a 100% return on its equity.) This measure is generally what people call “Return on Equity” and its the main measure of how well a financial services firm invests its capital. From their filings, we can see that in the third quarter of 2008 (pdf) Goldman had $42.5 billion in equity. From that filing, we also know that Goldman’s return on that equity was 7.7% for that quarter and 14.2% for the first nine months of that fiscal year (both numbers are annualized). Compare those numbers to the third quarter of this year (pdf): Goldman returned 21.4% on its equity in that quarter and 19.2% over the first nine months of 2009. Further, and Goldman had $58.4 of equity at the end of the third quarter of 2009. [Note that, in some sense, when a person buys shares of Goldman's stock they are buying part of Goldman's capital along with the firm's ability to manage and grow that capital. Put another way, I'm buying equity that I am allowing Goldman's traders and bankers to use in exchange for a share in the profits (in the form of the capital I own growing). This is the sense that financial firms are different from non-financial firms: in an industrial firm equity represents ownership of tangible assets and an ongoing business whereas in a financial firm equity represents capital used to invest. But, I digress... ] When we compare this performance to its peers (see the chart), we can also see that Goldman’s ability to invest its capital and grow it has exceeded that of its peers both consistently and significantly. The source of this outperformance is what we are going to examine — is this pace sustainable? I do not think so. Source: Bloomberg III. Recent Results — Investment Banking Before we dig into Goldman’s other businesses, one important aspect of Goldman is its investment banking business. Mr. Gasparino goes out of his way to make claims about Goldman losing ground here. Using the bluntest instrument one can think of for examining the claim, the league tables , its easy enough to disprove his ridiculous claims. Inexplicably, Mr. Gasparino seems to never cite a single number. Make no mistake, I am not a huge an of the league tables as a measure of quality — if I do one deal whose value is $100 billion do I have a better banking franchise than if I had done 10 deals valued at $9 billion each? I would argue “No” but the single $100 billion deal would be ahead in the league tables. We can almost fix these sorts of problems by looking at the league tables based on fees and not transaction volume, but using the league tables in general still leaves a lot to be desired. Just to hammer the point about investment banking home, merely look at the Thomson league tables for the year through the third quarter (as of the writing of the other pieces, the most recent complete dataset, free registration required). Goldman maintains the top spot in both worldwide and U.S. completed M&A when ranked based on fees. Further, when looking at fees from capital markets activity, including debt, equity, and equity-related instruments, we see Goldman maintains exactly the same position as it did last year (fourth). In short, I see no evidence that anyone can point to in the actual numbers that Goldman is slipping in investment banking. IV. Recent Results — Trading Goldman’s other businesses, though, show an interesting trend: Goldman’s ability to generate returns on its own capital for 2009 has been massive. This is partially because Goldman was able to keep operating and deploying capital while many of its competitors weren’t. A relevant fact: when firms can’t borrow money against their capital, or pay higher rates to do so, this has to be reflected in asset prices — firms will demand a higher return to cover their costs. (Example: If I’m trying to buy a house and the bank quotes me a 5% rate on my mortgage, I’ll probably pay more for a specific house than if the bank quotes me a 10% rate. The fact that the borrowed money is more expensive affects the price I’m willing to pay.) For Goldman, who was viewed as more stable and whose cost of borrowing wasn’t rising as much as its competitors, this drop in asset prices created a huge opportunity — Goldman could pay the same price its competitors were willing to pay and earn a higher return, outperforming its peers. Mortgage bonds, for example, traded at very attractive levels, which allowed Goldman to use it’s cheaper borrowing and available capital to buy these bonds cheaply. In fact, Goldman had the opportunity to deploy billions to make a profit from this dislocation in the market — in mortgages specifically, there is an opportunity to make a profit purely by having cheaper financing than the next guy (this trade is called a dollar roll — read more here or here ). What does this have to do with anything, this esoteric portion of a small market, you ask? Well, Lloyd has an answer for you (pdf): Last month, for instance, we provided short-term liquidity to a portion of the mortgage market through a large agency mortgage transaction.

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Post-Madoff Reforms At SEC Scaled Back, Delayed, Canceled

December 30, 2009

Mary Schapiro, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, said she wanted to show that her agency was cracking down after missing Bernard Madoff’s $65 billion Ponzi scheme. In May, she proposed that almost 10,000 money managers undergo surprise inspections to make sure they weren’t ripping off clients. “Investors are looking to the SEC to assure the safekeeping of their assets,” Schapiro said at the time. “We cannot let them down.” On Dec. 16, she settled for something less sweeping. Schapiro joined four other commissioners in approving a rule that requires about 1,600 U.S. fund managers to submit to unannounced audits, 83 percent fewer than seven months ago. The revision came after lobbying by fund companies, including executives from T. Rowe Price Group Inc., who met with Schapiro, and Legg Mason Inc., who met with another commissioner, SEC records show.

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Fewer bankruptcies seen ahead

December 30, 2009

said Todd Snyder, a managing director at Rothschild who advised the U.S. government on the auto industry. REAL ESTATE GETS REAL Still, in some areas like commercial real estate, struggling local banks, and debt-laden private equity portfolio companies,

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2010 Is The Year Of Opportunity For The Manhattan Real Estate Market-both Residential And Commercial

December 30, 2009

There are lots of exciting things happening in the Manhattan real estate market in the near term and conditions are rapidly changing. 2009 was an exciting year for A&I Broadway Realty as Inc.500 magazine announced that A&I Broadway Realty is

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French Celebrate New Year With Deepest Champagne Discounts in Past Decade

December 30, 2009

By Ladka Bauerova Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — The biggest threat to champagne these days may be champagne itself. After almost a decade of raising prices and cultivating the champagne brand to fend off sparkling wines such as prosecco and cava, some producers, including premium champagne maker Laurent- Perrier SA , are flooding French supermarkets with young bottles priced at less than 10 euros ($14.40). “We haven’t seen such aggressive discounting since the big champagne crisis in 2000,” when prices fell after the millennium celebrations, said Francis Pretre , an analyst at Paris-based CM- CIC who has followed the industry for a decade. “If it continues next year, it will create a real image problem for the champagne brand.” The value of champagne sold is set to fall at almost twice the rate of volume this year in France, the drink’s home and its biggest market, as the recession causes consumers to pare spending, according to an industry report by just-drinks.com. The trend threatens the prospects of champagne titans, including LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA , as well as the $4.4 billion global industry, Pretre said. French shoppers selecting a bubbly for New Year’s Eve are increasingly choosing cheaper options like Laurent-Perrier’s 10- euro brand Jeanmaire; Hubert de Claminger, which costs as little as 8.90 euros at Carrefour SA ; or Champagne Paul Breteuil, which goes for 10 euros at Auchan SA stores. Taking Advantage “This year is really extraordinary — I see discounts everywhere so why not take advantage?” said Didier Campinar, 28, a Parisian who lost his job as a public relations assistant three months ago. He purchased four bottles of LVMH’s Mercier for 15.70 euros apiece at an Auchan store in western Paris, where the cheaper Jeanmaire and Paul Breteuil were sold out. “We have less money now of course, but we won’t give up champagne.” Producers including Vranken Pommery-Monopole SA and Boizel Chanoine Champagne are also “very aggressive” in selling cheap bottles for 13 euros or less at French superstores like E. Leclerc and Auchan, according to Pretre. Boizel’s upscale labels include the 110-euro Lanson Noble Cuvee 1996. Both companies confirmed that they sell less-expensive bottles in selected venues. Selling off young vintages cheaply is a value-destructive, short-sighted strategy, according to Carole Duval-Leroy, who chairs the region’s quality-monitoring committee and runs Champagne Duval-Leroy, a family-owned vintner. Damage Repair “It’s a big problem because once our prices fall we need years to repair the damage done to the brand,” she said in a Dec. 1 interview. “Those who are selling their champagne cheaply are producers with a cash-flow problem so they need to sell now. This hurts us a lot.” Champagne makers are more used to raising prices than reducing them. The value of champagne sold almost doubled in the two decades to 2007 while the number of bottles produced rose by about 20 percent. LVMH and other makers of premium labels like Bollinger have slashed prices of some bottles by as much as 50 percent in the U.K., the largest market after France, said analysts including HSBC’s Erwan Rambourg and Trevor Stirling of Sanford C. Bernstein, also based in London. Cava, Prosecco Champagne has also lost out to other sparkling wines such as Spanish cava and Italian prosecco, revenue of which increased by 1 percent in 2008 as consumers in Germany and other export markets switched to cheaper alternatives, according to Euromonitor. Global champagne revenue fell 2.6 percent in 2008. In France, where consumers prefer local vintages, a cheaper alternative to champagne is the sparkling wine called cremant, which retails for between 5 and 8 euros. “I prefer to sell a customer a good cremant rather than the really cheap champagne,” said Stephane Corazza, an owner of a wine shop in northern Paris. “Those 10-euro bottles really aren’t worth buying. Champagne needs to be balanced, it needs to age, and there really is a reason why good champagne costs more than other sparkling wines.” LVMH, whose champagne brands include Dom Perignon and Ruinart, said wines and spirits revenue dropped 14 percent in the first nine months. Champagne revenue at Vranken, whose less expensive bottles go for an average of 17 euros a bottle, fell 3.2 percent in the period while Boizel reported a 12 percent decline. ‘Almost Zero’ As consumers shun $200 bottles of Laurent-Perrier’s Grand Siecle champagne, the Tours-Sur-Marne, France-based company has promoted its Jeanmaire brand to sell off stock of younger grapes and raise cash. While Jeanmaire has gone from “almost zero” of Laurent- Perrier’s sales by volume to 10 percent in the past six months, the brand isn’t enough to offset the decline in the company’s total. Revenue, which fell in 2008 for the first time in seven years, isn’t expected to match 2007’s level in the next five, estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. “Right now, the French retailers are focusing on low-end champagne,” Laurent-Perrier Chief Executive Officer Stephane Tsassis said in a Dec. 1 interview. “We had to address that demand.” To contact the reporter on this story: Ladka Bauerova in Paris at lbauerova@bloomberg.net .

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Kids Toys, Pay Hikes Keep Leftists in Power: Alexandre Marinis

December 30, 2009

Commentary by Alexandre Marinis Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — The ruling coalition of left-wingers who’ve governed Chile for 20 years lost the first round of voting for a new president earlier this month. Some people might view the Concertacion party’s setback as evidence that leftists in Latin America are beginning to lose favor with voters. That’s simply not so, especially after the global financial crisis re-energized advocates of big government, aggressive public spending and nationalism. Several left-wing leaders in the region were voted into office or re-elected this year. Their parties grew stronger politically and, in some cases, won control of the judiciary and media. The most recent example: former guerrilla Jose Mujica was elected president of Uruguay in November and his left-wing coalition, the Broad Front, won a majority of seats in the Senate and the House. Their combination of market-friendly macroeconomic policies and social programs for the poor has been popular with voters so far. The left has won loyal friends in many ways. Increasing wages for certain public workers by as much as 457 percent, as Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva did, is one technique. Another one is to import 124,000 toys from China worth $1.4 million in order to sell them at a discount of 80 percent in a pre-Christmas “ socialist fair ,” as Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez did. The question is whether this type of thing is sustainable. What will happen when global fiscal stimulus packages are withdrawn, international interest rates begin rising and distressed budgets can no longer pay for populist programs? Holding Onto Power It is tough to say for how long Latin America’s leftist leaders will continue to use public resources to finance their own private business interests while pretending that everything they do is purely for the betterment of the have-nots. A toy can certainly put a smile on the face of a slum kid in Caracas, but it won’t lift her up out of poverty; only an education can do that. But try getting a decent education when textbooks focus more on the personal biography of the local authoritarian ruler than on math or science. That’s another tactic the left uses to keep its grip on power. A moderate left-wing government, as opposed to Venezuela’s boisterous one, can actually be good for a country. Chile, for example, has advanced during the past two decades of left-wing rule. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development voted this month to make Chile its second Latin American member after Mexico. The Paris-based organization works with governments to promote democratic policies and economic growth. Voting For Change Nonetheless, Chileans might be ready for change. On Dec. 13, the first round of Chile’s presidential elections showed conservative billionaire Sebastian Pinera winning 44 percent of the vote and opening a 14 percentage point lead over leftist runner-up Eduardo Frei , the candidate backed by president Michelle Bachelet . A runoff is scheduled for Jan. 17. A victory for Pinera would end Concertacion’s two decade- long reign and restore power to supporters of the late military dictator Augusto Pinochet . But even if Pinera prevails, it won’t be a harbinger of what’s to come elsewhere in Latin America. Ten years ago, leftist leaders ran five of Latin America’s 20 countries. Today, they rule 15 of them. Evo Morales , a loyal disciple of Venezuela’s Chavez, was re-elected president of Bolivia for another four-year term this month and also gained a comfortable two-thirds majority support in both houses of Congress. Earlier in 2009 leftist candidates Fernando Lugo and Mauricio Funes won presidential elections in Paraguay and El Salvador, respectively. The electoral misfortune of the ruling coalition in Chile is much more related to infighting and defections within Concertacion and to Frei’s own personal shortcomings rather than displeasure with the left. As a former president (1994-2000), Frei left office during a recession due to the Asian financial crisis, which left a mark on him. Any doubters should check out an independent poll taken only one week before the balloting in Chile this month: The approval rating for departing President Bachelet’s administration is a whopping 74 percent. The poll suggests the left won’t be on the ropes in Latin America even if the right wins in Chile. ( Alexandre Marinis , political economist and founding partner of Mosaico Economia Politica, is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.) Click on “Send Comment” in the sidebar display to send a letter to the editor. To contact the writer of this column: Alexandre Marinis in Sao Paulo at amarinis1@bloomberg.net

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Bankers Get $4 Trillion Gift From Barney Frank: David Reilly

December 30, 2009

Commentary by David Reilly Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — To close out 2009, I decided to do something I bet no member of Congress has done — actually read from cover to cover one of the pieces of sweeping legislation bouncing around Capitol Hill. Hunkering down by the fire, I snuggled up with H.R. 4173 , the financial-reform legislation passed earlier this month by the House of Representatives. The Senate has yet to pass its own reform plan. The baby of Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank , the House bill is meant to address everything from too-big-to-fail banks to asleep-at-the-switch credit-ratings companies to the protection of consumers from greedy lenders. I quickly discovered why members of Congress rarely read legislation like this. At 1,279 pages, the “Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act” is a real slog. And yes, I plowed through all those pages. (Memo to Chairman Frank: “ystem” at line 14, page 258 is missing the first “s”.) The reading was especially painful since this reform sausage is stuffed with more gristle than meat. At least, that is, if you are a taxpayer hoping the bailout train is coming to a halt. If you’re a banker, the bill is tastier. While banks opposed the legislation, they should cheer for its passage by the full Congress in the New Year: There are huge giveaways insuring the government will again rescue banks and Wall Street if the need arises. Nuggets Gleaned Here are some of the nuggets I gleaned from days spent reading Frank’s handiwork: — For all its heft, the bill doesn’t once mention the words “too-big-to-fail,” the main issue confronting the financial system. Admitting you have a problem, as any 12- stepper knows, is the crucial first step toward recovery. — Instead, it supports the biggest banks. It authorizes Federal Reserve banks to provide as much as $4 trillion in emergency funding the next time Wall Street crashes. So much for “no-more-bailouts” talk. That is more than twice what the Fed pumped into markets this time around. The size of the fund makes the bribes in the Senate’s health-care bill look minuscule. — Oh, hold on, the Federal Reserve and Treasury Secretary can’t authorize these funds unless “there is at least a 99 percent likelihood that all funds and interest will be paid back.” Too bad the same models used to foresee the housing meltdown probably will be used to predict this likelihood as well. More Bailouts — The bill also allows the government, in a crisis, to back financial firms’ debts. Bondholders can sleep easy — there are more bailouts to come. — The legislation does create a council of regulators to spot risks to the financial system and big financial firms. Unfortunately this group is made up of folks who missed the problems that led to the current crisis. — Don’t worry, this time regulators will have better tools. Six months after being created, the council will report to Congress on “whether setting up an electronic database” would be a help. Maybe they’ll even get to use that Internet thingy. — This group, among its many powers, can restrict the ability of a financial firm to trade for its own account. Perhaps this section should be entitled, “Yes, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. , we’re looking at you.” Managing Bonuses — The bill also allows regulators to “prohibit any incentive-based payment arrangement.” In other words, banker bonuses are still in play. Maybe Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. shouldn’t have rushed to pay back Troubled Asset Relief Program funds. — The bill kills the Office of Thrift Supervision , a toothless watchdog. Well, kill may be too strong a word. That agency and its employees will be folded into the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency . Further proof that government never really disappears. — Since Congress isn’t cutting jobs, why not add a few more. The bill calls for more than a dozen agencies to create a position called “Director of Minority and Women Inclusion.” People in these new posts will be presidential appointees. I thought too-big-to-fail banks were the pressing issue. Turns out it’s diversity, and patronage. — Not that the House is entirely sure of what the issues are, at least judging by the two dozen or so studies the bill authorizes. About a quarter of them relate to credit-rating companies, an area in which the legislation falls short of meaningful change. Sadly, these studies don’t tackle tough questions like whether we should just do away with ratings altogether. Here’s a tip: Do the studies, then write the legislation. Consumer Protection — The bill isn’t all bad, though. It creates a new Consumer Financial Protection Agency, the brainchild of Elizabeth Warren , currently head of a panel overseeing TARP. And the first director gets the cool job of designing a seal for the new agency. My suggestion: Warren riding a fiery chariot while hurling lightning bolts at Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke . — Best of all, the bill contains a provision that, in the event of another government request for emergency aid to prop up the financial system, debate in Congress be limited to just 10 hours. Anything that can get Congress to shut up can’t be all bad. Even better would be if legislators actually tackle the real issues stemming from the financial crisis, end bailouts and, for the sake of my eyes, write far, far shorter bills. ( David Reilly is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.) Click on “Send Comment” in the sidebar display to send a letter to the editor. To contact the writer of this column: David Reilly at dreilly14@bloomberg.net

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Medical-Device Studies Lack Scientific Rigor, California Researchers Find

December 30, 2009

By David Olmos Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) — Cardiac pacemakers, stents and other medical devices implanted each year in hundreds of thousands of U.S. heart patients often are approved by government regulators based on insufficient scientific review, researchers said. About two of three cardiovascular devices approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration from 2000 to 2007 were tested in a single clinical trial rather than multiple studies, said scientists at the University of California, San Francisco. Eighty-eight percent of the studies failed to include, as a primary goal, a direct clinical measure of whether patients felt better, their heart function improved or they lived longer, the researchers found. Senator Charles Grassley , a Republican from Iowa, has criticized the FDA’s device review process as too friendly to the industry. The agency said in a Sept. 24 report that its approval of a knee implant made by Hackensack, New Jersey-based ReGen Biologics Inc . was flawed and needed to be re-examined. The FDA asked the Institute of Medicine , an advisory body, to review the approval procedure used for most medical devices, though not for the majority of cardiovascular devices. “The findings in this study raise questions about the quality of the data on which some cardiovascular device approvals are based,” wrote cardiologist Rita Redberg , a co- author of the study published today in the Journal of the American Medical Association. The approvals “lack adequate strength and may be prone to bias,” Redberg wrote. $15 Billion Market Minneapolis-based Medtronic Inc. , Boston Scientific Corp. , based in Natick, Massachusetts and St. Jude Medical Inc. , based in St. Paul, Minnesota, compete in the U.S. market for heart devices estimated at $15 billion by Frost & Sullivan Inc., a research and consulting firm based in Mountain View, California. The FDA said it has “serious concerns with the approach” used by the University of California researchers, whose study made “inappropriate assumptions” about the design of device trials. The researchers erred by evaluating medical-device approvals in a “drug-centric way” that used criteria commonly associated with the review of new prescription drugs, Jeffrey Shuren, acting director of the FDA’s Center for Devices and Radiological Health , said in a telephone interview. “I can’t vouch for their numbers,” Shuren said. “I don’t know how they got a lot of them, and I think they are incorrect.” The scientific rigor required for medical device studies “should be higher” than for drugs, the researchers said, because devices often are surgically implanted in patients and can’t just be discontinued, like drugs, if side effects occur. Medtronic Recall As an example, the study cited problems with Medtronic’s Sprint Fidelis defibrillators that led to a recall of the lead wires in October, 2007. The recall came three years after approval and implantation of 268,000 of the devices, according to the study. “Although devices can be lifesaving, they also have great potential for risk and adverse events,” the authors wrote. The researchers evaluated 123 studies of 78 cardiovascular devices reviewed through the FDA’s “pre-market approval” process. They used summaries of safety and effectiveness data that the FDA makes public after a device is approved. The process is the “most stringent” of the FDA’s three types of medical-device approvals, intended for “novel or high-risk’ devices, according to the study. Study Protocols Of the studies, only 27 percent were “randomized” and 14 percent were “blinded,” two common protocols used in clinical studies to ensure that bias does not weaken or invalidate the study results, the researchers noted. A blinded study means the participants don’t know whether they are receiving the treatment being studied or a placebo. Fourteen percent of the trials didn’t have a stated primary goal, or “endpoint,” and 48 percent lacked a “control group.” A control group is made up of participants who don’t receive the treatment being studied, and whose results are compared to assess how well a treatment works. An unpublished study conducted by researchers at Harvard University-affiliated Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston and the FDA also found flaws in medical-device approvals for heart devices from 2000 and 2007, the agency said. That study was based on public and confidential FDA data, said Bram Zuckerman , director of the FDA’s division of cardiovascular devices, in a telephone interview. Safety and effectiveness were “suboptimally defined” and incomplete information about patients’ secondary heart-related illnesses, such as diabetes or hypertension,” were “infrequently reported,” according to the FDA-Beth Israel study of the approval process, the FDA said in a statement. FDA Revisions Based on the Beth Israel study, the FDA has begun revising its approval process for cardiovascular devices, including “careful screening” of safety and effectiveness goals and better reporting of patients’ health status. The FDA said it “is engaged in a broader evaluation of clinical studies” and “may take additional actions based on the findings of this evaluation.” The JAMA and FDA-Beth Israel studies “are highly critical of the quality of data submitted” for medical device approvals, Sidney Wolfe , director of the health research group at Public Citizen, a Washington, D.C.-based consumer watchdog group, said today in a telephone interview. “The difference between the JAMA and the FDA studies is that the FDA had access to more data.” AdvaMed Review AdvaMed , a medical-device industry group based in Washington, D.C., is reviewing the findings of the University of California researchers, said Janet Trunzo, executive vice president for technology and regulatory affairs. “Clinical trial data is but one piece of the overall approval process for medical devices,” Trunzo said yesterday in an e-mail. “American patients have access to life-saving, life- enhancing technology because the FDA carefully balances the risks and benefits of each new device or advancement in a given technology.” Medical innovation is needed for patients, said Redberg, the JAMA study co-author. “But we also think it’s important that when we put invasive devices in people that are permanently implanted, we are assured of their safety and effectiveness.” To contact the reporter on this story: David Olmos in San Francisco at dolmos@bloomberg.net

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Sprott Says S&P 500 to Plunge Below March Low as Economy Fails to Rebound

December 30, 2009

By Matt Walcoff Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) — The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will collapse below its March lows as an expected rebound in economic growth fails to materialize, according to hedge fund manager Eric Sprott . The Toronto-based money manager, whose Sprott Hedge Fund returned about 496 percent in the past nine years as the S&P 500 lost 32 percent in Canadian dollar terms, said the index’s 66 percent rally since March 9 reflects investors misinterpreting economic data. He’s predicting the gauge will fall 40 percent to below 676.53, the 12-year low reached on March 9. “We’re in a bear market that will last 15 or 20 years, and we’ve had nine of them,” Sprott, chief executive officer of Sprott Asset Management LP, which oversees C$4.3 billion ($4.09 billion), said in an interview Dec. 18. Investors in Sprott’s funds have been rewarded by his holdings in gold, which has climbed 48 percent since the S&P 500 peaked in October 2007. The stock has since fallen 28 percent and declined 0.1 percent to 1,126.20 today for its first loss in seven sessions. Sprott said the Federal Reserve has kept bond yields and interest rates artificially low through its program to buy agency debt and mortgage-backed securities. The central bank expects the securities purchase program to finish by the end of March. Expiration of the program would reduce demand for fixed- income securities, forcing up bond yields and interest rates and hurting economic growth, Sprott said. Loss of Faith Should the Fed renew the programs while the U.S. government continues to run record deficits, investors will lose faith in the U.S. currency, he said. “If they announce another quantitative easing, trust me, the gold price will go up another 50 bucks that day,” he said. Gold futures fell 0.9 percent today to $1,098.10 an ounce in New York. Sprott has been bullish in gold and gold stocks , which are used as a hedge against inflation, since at least 2001, when the precious metal was trading below $300 an ounce. Gold futures have slipped 7.2 percent this month in New York as the U.S. dollar has rebounded on data that signaled a recovery in the U.S. economy. American payrolls fell by 11,000 in November, the fewest since the recession began, while retail sales gained 1.3 percent, twice the rate forecast in a survey of economists by Bloomberg, according to government reports released this month. Unjustified Optimism Sprott says investors have been too eager to see the data as signs of recovery. While the S&P 500 added 0.6 percent on the day of the employment report, a 23rd consecutive month of payroll contraction was no reason for optimism, he said. “We don’t have employment gains,” he said. “We have less of a decline. That’s a sign of weakness. The data is weak.” Sprott said gold is the only asset about which he remains positive in the short term. His C$1.42 billion Sprott Canadian Equity Fund — which is up 23 percent in five months — has 34 percent of its portfolio in mining stocks and another 39 percent in bullion as of Nov. 30. He said though he has no target price for the metal he doesn’t think it has reached a ceiling after quadrupling over the past eight years. “If you get into this thing where you’ve got to keep printing more and more and more, who knows about the price of gold?” he said. “It will be the new currency in due course.” Growth Potential Within the mining industry, Sprott prefers companies with smaller market capitalization, which he said have greater potential to grow. Since last year, Sprott’s firm has become the biggest shareholder of Avion Gold Corp. , which mines in Africa, and East Asia Minerals Corp. , which explores in Indonesia. Avion is undervalued for its projected 2010 production, he said. According to a Dec. 16 note from analyst Eric Zaunscherb of Canaccord Financial Inc., Avion was trading at 2.9 times its estimated 2010 earnings, compared with a multiple of 10.5 for its peers. Regarding East Asia Minerals, Sprott said, “I just get the feeling that these guys could find a multi-double-digit-million- ounce property.” East Asia completed a 2,000-meter, 14-hole drilling program at its largest Indonesian property that Canaccord analyst Wendell Zerb called “encouraging” and indicative of a large zone of gold mineralization. Over the next two quarters, East Asia is to drill 45 more holes at the site and begin drilling in four more locations in the country, Zerb said. Outside of the gold industry, Sprott owns shares of Wavefront Technology Solutions Inc. , a TSX Venture Exchange- listed company whose products are meant to increase oilfield production. Its technology could be used on at least two-thirds of the world’s oil wells, he said. Sprott, 65, founded his current firm in 2001 after divesting Sprott Securities, now Cormark Securities Inc., to its employees. To contact the reporter on this story: Matt Walcoff in Toronto at mwalcoff1@bloomberg.net .

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Lawyers Blitz Congress to Avoid Curbs on Malpractice Awards in Health Bill

December 30, 2009

By Jonathan D. Salant Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Senate staff members arriving at work by subway this month were greeted by signs proclaiming that “98,000 patients may die” through medical malpractice. On a single day in October, lawmakers received visits from more than 70 victims of doctors’ errors and the attorneys who represented them. And the trial lawyers’ political action committee gave members of the Democratic congressional majority more money than all but two other PACs. Such efforts helped trial lawyers avoid any of the concessions that other groups were forced to make to advance the cause of overhauling health care, despite polls showing strong support for curbs such as award caps on medical-malpractice lawsuits. Even organized labor, also among the Democrats’ most loyal supporters, faced a tax on high-end health-care plans. “Every single other group is being asked to put some skin in the game,” said Lisa Rickard , president of the Washington- based U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Institute for Legal Reform , which has run ads supporting award caps. “There’s hesitancy within both the administration and the Congress to do anything that’s really going to upset the apple cart when it comes to the trial lawyers.” Final Bill Both the House and Senate have voted to overhaul health care. Negotiators from the two chambers will begin crafting a version next month that can clear Congress and be signed into law by President Barack Obama . Neither measure caps awards for victims of medical malpractice. The absence of such a provision reflects the clout of trial lawyers, whose PAC contributed $1.1 million this year to Democrats, trailing only the International Union of Operating Engineers and International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, according to the Center for Responsive Politics , a Washington research group. Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean said at a town-hall meeting in Virginia in August that his party refused to limit awards “because the people who wrote it did not want to take on the trial lawyers.” The public supports limiting awards: An NBC-Wall Street Journal poll in September found 65 percent of respondents backing limits on payments to people injured by malpractice. James Rohack , the president of the Chicago-based American Medical Association , which has long fought to limit awards, said “medical liability reform has to be looked at” as a way of meeting the health-care overhaul’s goal of bringing down costs . ‘Proven to Be Effective’ “Caps on noneconomic damages are proven to be effective,” he said. That argument is echoed by congressional Republicans such as Senator John Ensign , a Nevada Republican who tried to amend the legislation to include caps. He said limits on malpractice awards would allow doctors to avoid “defensive medicine,” the extra tests they carry out to avoid lawsuits. An Oct. 9 Congressional Budget Office report found that a $250,000 cap on awards for pain and suffering awards would reduce health costs by $54 billion over 10 years, or 0.5 percent of annual health-care spending. The trial lawyers, however, argue that there would be no need for damages if there were no mistakes. Based on studies of hospitals in two states, the Institute of Medicine of the National Academy of Sciences estimated in 1999 that from 44,000 to 98,000 people each year die of medical errors. Subway Ads The American Association for Justice , the trial lawyers’ trade group, spent $100,000 to place ads in a subway station near the U.S. Capitol, and helped organize a day in October for malpractice victims and their lawyers to lobby lawmakers. “Patients have a lot of influence with the Congress,” said Linda Lipsen, an AAJ vice president. The Center for Justice and Democracy , a New York-based consumer group, brought Kathy Olsen of Chula Vista, California, to tell Senator Barbara Boxer and Representative Bob Fillner, two Democrats from her home state, about her then-2-year-old son, who suffered blindness and cerebral palsy from a brain abscess not discovered because the hospital refused a requested scan. A jury awarded $7.1 million for pain and suffering, though a judge reduced that to the state’s $250,000 cap. “Who would have thought the law wouldn’t have protected a 2-year-old who got hurt like this,” Olsen said. Democratic lawmakers also heard from Representative Bruce Braley of Iowa, a former trial lawyer who helped lead the debate against caps. He said Congress shouldn’t substitute its judgment for that of voters. ‘Same People’ “The same people who elect us are the same people who serve on juries in these cases,” Braley said. Democrats said caps weren’t even on the table after Obama said he wouldn’t support them. Such limits could be “unfair to people who’ve been wrongfully harmed,” Obama told the AMA in Chicago on June 15 . Obama “said he did not want caps but there were other things you could do,” said House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Henry Waxman , a California Democrat. As a possible substitute, both versions of the health-care legislation encourage states to find ways to curb frivolous claims. Among the ideas: Specialized courts for malpractice cases and having doctors apologize and offer compensation before a suit is filed, Rohack said. “We know caps work,” Rohack said. “What we don’t know is do these alternatives work.” To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan D. Salant in Washington at jsalant@bloomberg.net .

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China BAK Says Speculation of Google Order That Stoked Shares is Unfounded

December 30, 2009

By Tim Culpan and Lu Wang Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — China BAK Battery Inc. Chief Financial Officer Tony Shen said the unprofitable Chinese company hasn’t won any orders from Google Inc., denying speculation that drove the stock up 63 percent. “I have checked with all sales heads in all product lines as well as the CEO and COO,” Shen said in a phone interview today. “We have no knowledge of any such deals.” China BAK climbed to $3.64 as of 4 p.m. New York time in Nasdaq trading yesterday, its biggest advance since June 2004. The stock has more than doubled this year. Mark Tobin , an analyst with Roth Capital Partners LLC, said yesterday speculation circulated that the Shenzhen, China-based company was picked to supply batteries for a Google smart phone. Google may begin selling its own smart phone next year, the New York Times reported Dec. 13. The company invited reporters to an event on Jan. 5 to discuss its phone operating system, the newspaper said on its “Bits” blog yesterday. Katie Watson , a spokeswoman for Google, declined to comment. Shen said China BAK announced last week it won a $1 million order to supply batteries for buses in China, the company’s first “major” order from the automotive industry. About 60 percent of the company’s revenue is derived from mobile phones and 30 percent from laptop computers, he said. To contact the reporter on this story: Tim Culpan in Taipei at tculpan1@bloomberg.net ; Lu Wang in New York at lwang8@bloomberg.net

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Scholastic Graduates From Harry Potter to Obama’s Stimulus for Sales Help

December 30, 2009

By Molly Peterson and Greg Bensinger Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — Scholastic Corp. , the children’s book publisher whose sales slumped when the “Harry Potter” series ended, is getting a lift from the U.S. government as schools use stimulus funds to buy educational software. Sales of Scholastic programs such as “Read 180” and related services topped $60 million in the fiscal first half ended Nov. 30, up 75 percent from a year earlier. About half the growth came from stimulus-related spending by school districts, said Margery Mayer , president of Scholastic’s education unit. “We’ve added new customers who have used stimulus funding to buy our products over the past six months,” Mayer said in an interview. “We also know that a large percentage of our existing customers have been buying more products this year; some of them are using stimulus money.” Shares of New York-based Scholastic have tripled to $30.10 in Nasdaq Stock Market trading from $9.94 on March 9, when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index hit a 12-year low. McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. , also based in New York, almost doubled to $33.57 during the period, while London-based Pearson Plc rose 67 percent to $14.31. Investors may have underestimated Scholastic’s earnings potential earlier in the year, said Sean Egan , president of Egan-Jones Ratings Co. in Haverford, Pennsylvania. The company “was thrown onto the trash heap” in March as the S&P 500 Index plunged, he said. Life After Harry “Since that time, it’s been put on a pedestal,” said Egan, who rates Scholastic’s debt BB-, or three levels below investment grade. “But to get a normalized picture of the operating income and net income, you have to make some adjustments,” such as anticipating an end to stimulus spending after next year. Scholastic’s children’s book unit published the last of J.K. Rowling’s seven novels about Harry Potter, the boy wizard, in July 2007. Revenue of the unit’s trade division, which oversaw the Potter books, plunged 56 percent to $184 million in the year ended last May 31 from $419 million the year before, when the Potter series alone generated $270 million in sales. The company has said it hopes to boost revenue with $100 million in stimulus-related educational sales by mid-2011. Scholastic also sold a marketing division last year for $29 million in cash, exited unprofitable businesses and reduced costs by about $30 million by cutting jobs. Stimulus to End Scholastic’s net income rose 29 percent to $55.5 million, or $1.51 a share, for the quarter ended Nov. 30 from a year earlier, the company reported Dec. 17. While overall revenue rose less than 1 percent to $660.1 million, educational publishing revenue grew 35 percent to $122.6 million. “The bulk of that increase was the result of the federal stimulus program, which is going to run its course over the next 12 months,” Egan said. President Barack Obama and Education Secretary Arne Duncan are using $100 billion in stimulus funds to try to reshape U.S. education. About $22 billion of the money allocated so far has gone to federal programs for the low-income and disabled students Scholastic’s remedial programs target. “We go into a district, we help them analyze their data, where are the children struggling, and we work with them to figure out where should we get started,” Mayer said. Later, “we help them look at how it’s working in their district, and then we come back and they add more. We have lot of districts that expand with us every single year.” ‘Best Product’ Read 180 , Scholastic’s flagship instructional software product, offers individualized instruction for elementary and high school students who read below grade level. The stimulus has helped Scholastic more than competitors such as McGraw-Hill and Pearson because products such as Read 180 “play very well” into federal programs for special- education students and high-poverty schools, said Drew Crum , an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in Cleveland. “They’re sourcing about 50 percent of their revenue from the federal government,” said Crum, who recommends investors hold Scholastic stock. “Most education publishers get only 10 percent from the federal government.” Read 180 is “arguably the best reading intervention product on the market,” Crum said. “There have been a lot of competitors attempting to emulate what Scholastic has achieved. To their credit, they’ve been able to maintain a market-leading position.” McGraw-Hill expects the stimulus’ full impact on the elementary and secondary school market to come into play next year, company spokesman Frank Briamonte said in an interview. Comparing Pearson’s stock performance to Scholastic’s is difficult because they are “very different companies,” Pearson spokesman Charles Goldsmith said in an e-mail. Pearson has been one of the best-performing European media companies this year and participates in more of the U.S. education market than Scholastic does, he said. To contact the reporters on this story: Molly Peterson in Washington at mpeterson9@bloomberg.net ; Greg Bensinger in New York at gbensinger1@bloomberg.net

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PG&E Customer Revolt Over Meters May Slow Deployment of Obama’s Smart Grid

December 30, 2009

By Mark Chediak Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — Consumer backlash and cost concerns may cause delays in the nationwide rollout of “smart” utility meters at the center of the Obama administration’s $8 billion push to update the U.S. electricity grid. PG&E Corp. , owner of California’s largest utility, halted meter installations in Bakersfield, north of Los Angeles, after hundreds of customers complained that readings weren’t accurate. The meters, part of a so-called smart-grid initiative billed as clearing the way for more renewable-energy use, are designed to help consumers conserve power during periods of peak demand. Martha Johnson, pastor of a church in Bakersfield, said her utility bill almost doubled from a year earlier to $874 in July after her new meter was installed. “That caught my eye because I’ve never had a bill that high,” said Johnson, 64. San Francisco-based PG&E , which faces a lawsuit from a Bakersfield customer who’s seeking class-action status, says its meters are accurate and hot weather and increased rates led to higher bills than consumers expected. The state Utilities Commission ordered an independent study of billing accuracy. Whether PG&E’s complaints stem from perception or defects, they may slow U.S. installations of the meters, a cornerstone of President Barack Obama ’s plan to spur grid upgrades with $8 billion in public-private funding. Consumer groups question whether benefits of the meters justify costs passed on when regulators allow utilities to increase rates to pay for them. Regulator Reluctance “If customers lose confidence in smart meters, I would expect regulators would be more reluctant to grant rate increases to install new meters across the system,” said Travis Miller , a utility analyst at Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. “Any kind of adverse impact from these projects could impact long- term growth of the meters.” The devices allow utilities to check energy use remotely, eliminating the need for employing meter readers. They can be connected to equipment that shows customers when rates are highest, allowing households and other consumers to shift power use to less costly periods. Smart meters also give utilities more control of demand, helping them match usage with renewable electricity flows, such as from wind and solar power. There are about 8 million smart electric meters in the U.S., and that count will jump sevenfold by 2019, according to the Institute for Electric Efficiency in Washington. “Other states are looking very closely at what is happening in California,” said Mindy Spatt , a spokeswoman for the Utility Reform Network , a consumer group in San Francisco. “What we know for sure about the meters is they are job killers and they are very expensive. The rest is just pie in the sky.” Cost Objections Utility-consumer groups across the country have raised cost concerns about meter projects, said Charles Acquard , executive director of the National Association of State Utility Consumer Advocates. Ben Schuman , an analyst who covers such meter makers as Itron Inc. at Pacific Crest Securities in Portland, Oregon, said the devices installed so far have proved accurate. The unknown is whether consumers will use the technology to cut power costs, he said. Liberty Lake, Washington-based Itron has risen 7.3 percent this year on the Nasdaq Stock Market, trailing a 45 percent jump by the Nasdaq Composite Index. Schuman has “sector perform” ratings on Itron and other makers of meter-related products, including Comverge Inc. , EnerNOC Inc. and Esco Technologies Inc. Comverge and EnerNoc have more than doubled in value this year. Esco has dropped 11 percent. Duke Plan Rejected Regulators in states such as Connecticut and Texas are pressing utilities to show how smart meters will benefit consumers. In November, Indiana regulators rejected a proposal by Duke Energy Corp. to install about 800,000 smart meters after concluding the company didn’t show the plan’s long-term rewards. Charlotte, North Carolina-based Duke, which got $200 million in federal funding to deploy smart meters and other equipment in three states, will reapply in January for approval in Indiana, company spokesman Dave Scanzoni said. Fairfield, Connecticut-based General Electric Co. and Switzerland’s Landis+Gyr are supplying the 10 million meters that PG&E plans to deploy at a cost of $2.2 billion. Bakersfield resident Pete Flores filed suit in October, alleging that his bills almost tripled after a smart meter was put in. Lawyer Michael Kelly , who represents Flores, said he plans to file an updated suit with more plaintiffs in January. California Case “The allegations in the lawsuit are untrue,” PG&E spokesman Paul Moreno said. PG&E tested meters in Bakersfield and found they were working properly, Moreno said. The company is installing 12,000 to 15,000 meters a day in central California and the San Francisco area. PG&E has investigated more than 400 customer complaints, mostly from Bakersfield and other areas where hot weather and rate increases as high as 22 percent caused power bills to surge, Moreno said. Bakersfield had 17 days above 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 Celsius) in July, up from six days a year earlier, according to the National Weather Service. Mark Hura , smart-grid leader for GE, and Landis+Gyr spokesman Stan March said their meters read power usage within an accuracy range of 0.2 percent. To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Chediak in San Francisco at mchediak@bloomberg.net .

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PG&E Customer Revolt Over Meters May Slow Deployment of Obama’s Smart Grid

December 30, 2009

By Mark Chediak Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — Consumer backlash and cost concerns may cause delays in the nationwide rollout of “smart” utility meters at the center of the Obama administration’s $8 billion push to update the U.S. electricity grid. PG&E Corp. , owner of California’s largest utility, halted meter installations in Bakersfield, north of Los Angeles, after hundreds of customers complained that readings weren’t accurate. The meters, part of a so-called smart-grid initiative billed as clearing the way for more renewable-energy use, are designed to help consumers conserve power during periods of peak demand. Martha Johnson, pastor of a church in Bakersfield, said her utility bill almost doubled from a year earlier to $874 in July after her new meter was installed. “That caught my eye because I’ve never had a bill that high,” said Johnson, 64. San Francisco-based PG&E , which faces a lawsuit from a Bakersfield customer who’s seeking class-action status, says its meters are accurate and hot weather and increased rates led to higher bills than consumers expected. The state Utilities Commission ordered an independent study of billing accuracy. Whether PG&E’s complaints stem from perception or defects, they may slow U.S. installations of the meters, a cornerstone of President Barack Obama ’s plan to spur grid upgrades with $8 billion in public-private funding. Consumer groups question whether benefits of the meters justify costs passed on when regulators allow utilities to increase rates to pay for them. Regulator Reluctance “If customers lose confidence in smart meters, I would expect regulators would be more reluctant to grant rate increases to install new meters across the system,” said Travis Miller , a utility analyst at Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. “Any kind of adverse impact from these projects could impact long- term growth of the meters.” The devices allow utilities to check energy use remotely, eliminating the need for employing meter readers. They can be connected to equipment that shows customers when rates are highest, allowing households and other consumers to shift power use to less costly periods. Smart meters also give utilities more control of demand, helping them match usage with renewable electricity flows, such as from wind and solar power. There are about 8 million smart electric meters in the U.S., and that count will jump sevenfold by 2019, according to the Institute for Electric Efficiency in Washington. “Other states are looking very closely at what is happening in California,” said Mindy Spatt , a spokeswoman for the Utility Reform Network , a consumer group in San Francisco. “What we know for sure about the meters is they are job killers and they are very expensive. The rest is just pie in the sky.” Cost Objections Utility-consumer groups across the country have raised cost concerns about meter projects, said Charles Acquard , executive director of the National Association of State Utility Consumer Advocates. Ben Schuman , an analyst who covers such meter makers as Itron Inc. at Pacific Crest Securities in Portland, Oregon, said the devices installed so far have proved accurate. The unknown is whether consumers will use the technology to cut power costs, he said. Liberty Lake, Washington-based Itron has risen 7.3 percent this year on the Nasdaq Stock Market, trailing a 45 percent jump by the Nasdaq Composite Index. Schuman has “sector perform” ratings on Itron and other makers of meter-related products, including Comverge Inc. , EnerNOC Inc. and Esco Technologies Inc. Comverge and EnerNoc have more than doubled in value this year. Esco has dropped 11 percent. Duke Plan Rejected Regulators in states such as Connecticut and Texas are pressing utilities to show how smart meters will benefit consumers. In November, Indiana regulators rejected a proposal by Duke Energy Corp. to install about 800,000 smart meters after concluding the company didn’t show the plan’s long-term rewards. Charlotte, North Carolina-based Duke, which got $200 million in federal funding to deploy smart meters and other equipment in three states, will reapply in January for approval in Indiana, company spokesman Dave Scanzoni said. Fairfield, Connecticut-based General Electric Co. and Switzerland’s Landis+Gyr are supplying the 10 million meters that PG&E plans to deploy at a cost of $2.2 billion. Bakersfield resident Pete Flores filed suit in October, alleging that his bills almost tripled after a smart meter was put in. Lawyer Michael Kelly , who represents Flores, said he plans to file an updated suit with more plaintiffs in January. California Case “The allegations in the lawsuit are untrue,” PG&E spokesman Paul Moreno said. PG&E tested meters in Bakersfield and found they were working properly, Moreno said. The company is installing 12,000 to 15,000 meters a day in central California and the San Francisco area. PG&E has investigated more than 400 customer complaints, mostly from Bakersfield and other areas where hot weather and rate increases as high as 22 percent caused power bills to surge, Moreno said. Bakersfield had 17 days above 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 Celsius) in July, up from six days a year earlier, according to the National Weather Service. Mark Hura , smart-grid leader for GE, and Landis+Gyr spokesman Stan March said their meters read power usage within an accuracy range of 0.2 percent. To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Chediak in San Francisco at mchediak@bloomberg.net .

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Wall Street Waits for Schapiro as SEC Fails to Set Madoff-Inspired Reforms

December 30, 2009

By Jesse Westbrook Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — Mary Schapiro , chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission , said she wanted to show that her agency was cracking down after missing Bernard Madoff’s $65 billion Ponzi scheme. In May, she proposed that almost 10,000 money managers undergo surprise inspections to make sure they weren’t ripping off clients. “Investors are looking to the SEC to assure the safekeeping of their assets,” Schapiro said at the time. “We cannot let them down.” On Dec. 16, she settled for something less sweeping. Schapiro joined four other commissioners in approving a rule that requires about 1,600 U.S. fund managers to submit to unannounced audits, 83 percent fewer than seven months ago. The revision came after lobbying by fund companies, including executives from T. Rowe Price Group Inc. , who met with Schapiro, and Legg Mason Inc. , who met with another commissioner, SEC records show. The diminished inspections rule is one of at least four Schapiro announced as a way to protect investors and boost confidence, then later scaled back or delayed. In August, she bought herself more time on a rule to rein in short-sellers, after lobbying by hedge funds. In October, Schapiro put off plans to give investors more power to decide who sits on corporate boards after the U.S. Chamber of Commerce questioned the SEC’s jurisdiction. ‘Driving Hard’ “I’ve been driving people very, very hard in this building,” Schapiro said in a Dec. 22 interview. “We just don’t have the capacity to move any faster. We’re still at, I think, a very good pace.” Schapiro became SEC chairman in January, having been nominated by President-elect Barack Obama to attack Wall Street’s “culture of greed” and bring the “new ideas, new reforms and new spirit of accountability” to an agency whose failures, Obama said, helped spur the 2008 market meltdown. In her first year in office, Schapiro’s found that issuing proposals is easier than finalizing them. “You get zero points in history for what you proposed,” said former SEC Chairman Richard Breeden , who now manages a hedge fund that tries to remove directors at companies he believes are underperforming. “You get points for what you get over the goal line.” The SEC under Schapiro, 54, has suffered some setbacks, including a public humiliation in September by a federal judge who called a proposed $33 million settlement of an enforcement case with Bank of America Corp. a “contrivance.” Democratic Relations Even Schapiro’s attempts to maintain good relations with Democrats in Congress have prompted SEC Commissioner Kathleen Casey , a Republican, to caution against politicizing an independent agency. Regulation “needs to be driven by data, not politics or unfounded assumptions,” the SEC commissioner said at an October public meeting. “If you go back to my days there were attempts to bring political pressure over some of our cases,” said Stanley Sporkin , a retired federal judge who in the 1970s led the SEC unit that investigates corporate fraud. “Everybody at the SEC knows you’ve got to fight it off. Mary knows that.” Schapiro, who graduated from Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, before receiving a law degree from George Washington University, has spent more than two decades in financial regulation. She was first a staff attorney at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission , followed by stints as an SEC commissioner, chairman of the CFTC and then chief executive officer of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority , a Wall Street-funded overseer of more than 5,000 U.S. brokerages. Image Rehabilitated Former SEC officials say Schapiro’s strategy of proposing rules and pursuing cases against industries and executives involved in the financial crisis helped rehabilitate the agency’s image — even if she has had to change her mind on occasion. “Sometimes you shoot too fast and you find out there are things you should have thought about first,” said Edward Fleischman , a former SEC commissioner who’s now a senior counsel at the Linklaters law firm in New York. “She doesn’t appear to be a steamroller who says ‘I made the proposal so it must be right.’” At a time when lawmakers were threatening to strip the SEC of power because of failures in policing Wall Street, she helped restore its credibility, former officials said, by cleaning up units that missed Madoff’s crimes and proposing regulations for credit-rating companies that assigned top grades to toxic mortgage securities. “Mary has behaved admirably,” said David Ruder , a Republican SEC chairman under President Ronald Reagan who now teaches law at Northwestern University in Chicago. “She has really made an effort to show the commission is revitalizing itself.” Unfinished Rules The SEC is reviewing public comments on the still- unfinished credit-rating rules, which would require companies such as Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s to disclose how much revenue they get from their biggest clients and subject their employees to the same liability standards as auditors. Schapiro also has yet to complete work on rules for money market funds. After last year’s collapse of the $62.5 billion Reserve Primary Fund , the Obama administration called the industry a “significant source of systemic risk.” SEC commissioners plan to vote next year on a proposal to force funds to hold a bigger share of their assets in investments that are easy to liquidate. Other regulatory initiatives, however, are stuck in limbo. After saying in April that she would consider curbs on short- selling, which lawmakers blame for pushing down stock prices, Schapiro has postponed any rules until next year. Hedge Fund Push Back The decision followed push back from hedge funds, including Citadel Investment Group LLC, D.E. Shaw & Co. LP, and Renaissance Technologies Corp. They told the SEC in letters that there was little evidence that bearish traders caused the steep decline of share prices in 2008. The fund managers also said the SEC’s plans would damage markets. Schapiro, in the interview, said the SEC in August sought a second round of comment because it was considering an alternative approach to the short-selling rules proposed four months earlier. On the surprise audits, fund managers complained in private meetings that the agency was unfairly punishing an entire industry for the sins of one of history’s biggest fraudsters, according to attendees who requested anonymity to discuss the private sessions. Exams Unnecessary The exams weren’t necessary, the money managers also argued, because most investment firms hire banks to safeguard customer funds. And they said it would cost them at least double the SEC’s $8,100 estimate to pay for the annual exams. “My view is always, if we are a bit more aggressive in proposing, we have more leeway,” Schapiro said in the interview. In May, she proposed a rule that would give shareholders more power to choose board directors by making it easier to wage proxy fights. Under the proposal, groups of shareholders who collectively own 1 percent of the biggest companies could nominate board members directly on corporate ballots, rather than absorbing the cost of printing and mailing a second proxy statement. She linked the proposal to the global financial crisis, saying bank losses raised “serious questions” about the oversight performed by directors. ‘Unworkable’ Plan The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which represents more than 3 million companies, called the SEC plan “unworkable” in an August letter. The nation’s largest business lobby has also been discussing with Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP attorneys a strategy for suing the SEC, said Tom Quaadman , a Chamber executive director. By September, Schapiro’s staff began telling investors that the so-called proxy-access rules wouldn’t be in place for 2010 director elections. In October, the SEC publicly announced the delay. Schapiro said the SEC still hopes to approve the rule in the first three months of 2010. “It’s a pretty profound change to the fabric of corporate governance,” she said in the interview. “We need to do it carefully and thoughtfully.” Her agenda has sometimes been driven by political pressure, said James Angel , a finance professor at Georgetown University in Washington who has served as an adviser to stock exchanges. Lawmaker Lobbying The effort to curtail short-selling, in which traders borrow stock and sell it, hoping to profit by replacing the shares at a lower price, followed lobbying from Democratic lawmakers after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 19 percent in the first two months of the year. Representative Barney Frank , chairman of the House Financial Services Committee — the SEC’s overseer in the House — announced Schapiro’s plans for her at a March 10 press conference. The Massachusetts Democrat said he was “hopeful,” after speaking with the SEC boss, that she’d reinstate the uptick rule “within a month.” The SEC in 2007 had scrapped the rule, which required investors to wait for the price of a stock to rise before executing short sales. In July, the prodding came from Senator Charles Schumer . The New York Democrat urged Schapiro, a political independent, to ban flash orders, which such trading venues as Direct Edge Holdings LLC were using to take market share from NYSE Euronext. Two-Tiered Market Schumer said the practice, in which brokers get a split- second advance peek at buy and sell orders for stock, risked creating a two-tiered market that favored those with sophisticated computer systems over retail investors. Schapiro, after a telephone conversation with Schumer, told her staff to get to work on a ban. To make sure she honored the commitment, the senator put out a press release disclosing their phone conversation and Schapiro’s pledge. The SEC proposed a prohibition on flash trades in September and the agency’s staff is now reviewing public comments. Schumer spokesman Brian Fallon didn’t respond to requests for comment. SEC Commissioner Casey and Senator Robert Menendez , a New Jersey Democrat, are among those who want the SEC to resist what they consider political influence. Menendez, whose state is home to Jersey City, New Jersey-based Direct Edge, sent Schapiro a letter on Dec. 9 advising her to base decisions about whether to ban trading practices on data, not input from “commentators.” Schapiro said she’s not worried “at all” about the level of congressional feedback. “I welcome hearing their views just like I welcome hearing the views of the stock exchanges and the clearinghouses, retail investors and the institutional investors,” she said in the interview. “It’s all part of the mix.” Weakened Clout Her responsiveness to the concerns of lawmakers may reflect the weakened clout of the SEC after the agency missed Madoff’s fraud and politicians accused it of failing to police Wall Street, said former SEC General Counsel Ralph Ferrara . “What’s being done now is to build credibility,” said Ferrara, a partner at Dewey & LeBoeuf LLP in Washington. “If the goal is to protect the agency, then what you do when the bear comes to the mouth of the cave is feed the bear.” There’s evidence that the strategy is working. In May, the Treasury Department was mulling a recommendation to Congress that the SEC relinquish oversight of the $10 trillion mutual- fund industry. Derivatives Regulation Seven months later, the House approved legislation that would increase, not shrink, the SEC’s authority by adding regulation of derivatives to its plate and doubling its $1 billion budget. Senate Banking Committee Democrats also want to give the SEC authority over derivatives. Traders use the mostly unregulated contracts to speculate on everything from interest rates to oil prices, and companies use them to protect against losses. Obama administration officials say a lack of transparency in the $605 trillion derivatives market exacerbated the credit crisis and contributed to the near-failure of American International Group Inc., once the world’s biggest insurer. Under lawmakers’ plans, banks and investors would trade contracts on regulated platforms that are monitored by the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Having won the battle to share oversight of derivatives with the CFTC, Schapiro now must prove that her agency can manage the new responsibility. In preparation, she has hired economists and former Wall Street traders to add market expertise to an agency staff made up mostly of attorneys. Headline-Grabbing Cases Meanwhile, new SEC Enforcement Director Robert Khuzami has tried to restore the prestige Madoff stripped from the agency by focusing on headline-grabbing cases, said Peter Henning , a former SEC attorney who now teaches at Wayne State University Law School in Detroit. The strategy went awry when U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff questioned why the SEC settlement with Bank of America didn’t accuse any executives of wrongdoing. The proposed settlement would have resolved allegations that the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank misled its investors about billions of dollars in bonus payments during the acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co. The $33 million fine reflected a “cynical relationship” that allowed the SEC to say it exposed wrongdoing and permitted Bank of America to say it had been “coerced into an onerous settlement,” Rakoff wrote in a Sept. 14 decision. The SEC now must square off against Bank of America in court next year and has requested a jury trial. Lengthy Court Battles The agency may also face lengthy court battles against Angelo Mozilo , the Countrywide Financial Corp. co-founder sued for inappropriate stock sales, and billionaire investor Raj Rajaratnam , who was accused of insider trading. Like some of Schapiro’s rule proposals, she can’t declare victory until those cases wend their way through the legal system. “She’s taken on the job under extraordinarily difficult conditions, given constant demands from lawmakers and the evolving financial crisis,” said Barbara Roper , director of investor protection for the Washington-based Consumer Federation of America. “That’s had an impact on what she’s been able to accomplish. The next year will be a real proving ground.” To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Westbrook in Washington at jwestbrook1@bloomberg.net .

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Wall Street Waits for Schapiro as SEC Fails to Set Madoff-Inspired Reforms

December 30, 2009

By Jesse Westbrook Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — Mary Schapiro , chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission , said she wanted to show that her agency was cracking down after missing Bernard Madoff’s $65 billion Ponzi scheme. In May, she proposed that almost 10,000 money managers undergo surprise inspections to make sure they weren’t ripping off clients. “Investors are looking to the SEC to assure the safekeeping of their assets,” Schapiro said at the time. “We cannot let them down.” On Dec. 16, she settled for something less sweeping. Schapiro joined four other commissioners in approving a rule that requires about 1,600 U.S. fund managers to submit to unannounced audits, 83 percent fewer than seven months ago. The revision came after lobbying by fund companies, including executives from T. Rowe Price Group Inc. , who met with Schapiro, and Legg Mason Inc. , who met with another commissioner, SEC records show. The diminished inspections rule is one of at least four Schapiro announced as a way to protect investors and boost confidence, then later scaled back or delayed. In August, she bought herself more time on a rule to rein in short-sellers, after lobbying by hedge funds. In October, Schapiro put off plans to give investors more power to decide who sits on corporate boards after the U.S. Chamber of Commerce questioned the SEC’s jurisdiction. ‘Driving Hard’ “I’ve been driving people very, very hard in this building,” Schapiro said in a Dec. 22 interview. “We just don’t have the capacity to move any faster. We’re still at, I think, a very good pace.” Schapiro became SEC chairman in January, having been nominated by President-elect Barack Obama to attack Wall Street’s “culture of greed” and bring the “new ideas, new reforms and new spirit of accountability” to an agency whose failures, Obama said, helped spur the 2008 market meltdown. In her first year in office, Schapiro’s found that issuing proposals is easier than finalizing them. “You get zero points in history for what you proposed,” said former SEC Chairman Richard Breeden , who now manages a hedge fund that tries to remove directors at companies he believes are underperforming. “You get points for what you get over the goal line.” The SEC under Schapiro, 54, has suffered some setbacks, including a public humiliation in September by a federal judge who called a proposed $33 million settlement of an enforcement case with Bank of America Corp. a “contrivance.” Democratic Relations Even Schapiro’s attempts to maintain good relations with Democrats in Congress have prompted SEC Commissioner Kathleen Casey , a Republican, to caution against politicizing an independent agency. Regulation “needs to be driven by data, not politics or unfounded assumptions,” the SEC commissioner said at an October public meeting. “If you go back to my days there were attempts to bring political pressure over some of our cases,” said Stanley Sporkin , a retired federal judge who in the 1970s led the SEC unit that investigates corporate fraud. “Everybody at the SEC knows you’ve got to fight it off. Mary knows that.” Schapiro, who graduated from Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, before receiving a law degree from George Washington University, has spent more than two decades in financial regulation. She was first a staff attorney at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission , followed by stints as an SEC commissioner, chairman of the CFTC and then chief executive officer of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority , a Wall Street-funded overseer of more than 5,000 U.S. brokerages. Image Rehabilitated Former SEC officials say Schapiro’s strategy of proposing rules and pursuing cases against industries and executives involved in the financial crisis helped rehabilitate the agency’s image — even if she has had to change her mind on occasion. “Sometimes you shoot too fast and you find out there are things you should have thought about first,” said Edward Fleischman , a former SEC commissioner who’s now a senior counsel at the Linklaters law firm in New York. “She doesn’t appear to be a steamroller who says ‘I made the proposal so it must be right.’” At a time when lawmakers were threatening to strip the SEC of power because of failures in policing Wall Street, she helped restore its credibility, former officials said, by cleaning up units that missed Madoff’s crimes and proposing regulations for credit-rating companies that assigned top grades to toxic mortgage securities. “Mary has behaved admirably,” said David Ruder , a Republican SEC chairman under President Ronald Reagan who now teaches law at Northwestern University in Chicago. “She has really made an effort to show the commission is revitalizing itself.” Unfinished Rules The SEC is reviewing public comments on the still- unfinished credit-rating rules, which would require companies such as Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s to disclose how much revenue they get from their biggest clients and subject their employees to the same liability standards as auditors. Schapiro also has yet to complete work on rules for money market funds. After last year’s collapse of the $62.5 billion Reserve Primary Fund , the Obama administration called the industry a “significant source of systemic risk.” SEC commissioners plan to vote next year on a proposal to force funds to hold a bigger share of their assets in investments that are easy to liquidate. Other regulatory initiatives, however, are stuck in limbo. After saying in April that she would consider curbs on short- selling, which lawmakers blame for pushing down stock prices, Schapiro has postponed any rules until next year. Hedge Fund Push Back The decision followed push back from hedge funds, including Citadel Investment Group LLC, D.E. Shaw & Co. LP, and Renaissance Technologies Corp. They told the SEC in letters that there was little evidence that bearish traders caused the steep decline of share prices in 2008. The fund managers also said the SEC’s plans would damage markets. Schapiro, in the interview, said the SEC in August sought a second round of comment because it was considering an alternative approach to the short-selling rules proposed four months earlier. On the surprise audits, fund managers complained in private meetings that the agency was unfairly punishing an entire industry for the sins of one of history’s biggest fraudsters, according to attendees who requested anonymity to discuss the private sessions. Exams Unnecessary The exams weren’t necessary, the money managers also argued, because most investment firms hire banks to safeguard customer funds. And they said it would cost them at least double the SEC’s $8,100 estimate to pay for the annual exams. “My view is always, if we are a bit more aggressive in proposing, we have more leeway,” Schapiro said in the interview. In May, she proposed a rule that would give shareholders more power to choose board directors by making it easier to wage proxy fights. Under the proposal, groups of shareholders who collectively own 1 percent of the biggest companies could nominate board members directly on corporate ballots, rather than absorbing the cost of printing and mailing a second proxy statement. She linked the proposal to the global financial crisis, saying bank losses raised “serious questions” about the oversight performed by directors. ‘Unworkable’ Plan The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which represents more than 3 million companies, called the SEC plan “unworkable” in an August letter. The nation’s largest business lobby has also been discussing with Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP attorneys a strategy for suing the SEC, said Tom Quaadman , a Chamber executive director. By September, Schapiro’s staff began telling investors that the so-called proxy-access rules wouldn’t be in place for 2010 director elections. In October, the SEC publicly announced the delay. Schapiro said the SEC still hopes to approve the rule in the first three months of 2010. “It’s a pretty profound change to the fabric of corporate governance,” she said in the interview. “We need to do it carefully and thoughtfully.” Her agenda has sometimes been driven by political pressure, said James Angel , a finance professor at Georgetown University in Washington who has served as an adviser to stock exchanges. Lawmaker Lobbying The effort to curtail short-selling, in which traders borrow stock and sell it, hoping to profit by replacing the shares at a lower price, followed lobbying from Democratic lawmakers after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 19 percent in the first two months of the year. Representative Barney Frank , chairman of the House Financial Services Committee — the SEC’s overseer in the House — announced Schapiro’s plans for her at a March 10 press conference. The Massachusetts Democrat said he was “hopeful,” after speaking with the SEC boss, that she’d reinstate the uptick rule “within a month.” The SEC in 2007 had scrapped the rule, which required investors to wait for the price of a stock to rise before executing short sales. In July, the prodding came from Senator Charles Schumer . The New York Democrat urged Schapiro, a political independent, to ban flash orders, which such trading venues as Direct Edge Holdings LLC were using to take market share from NYSE Euronext. Two-Tiered Market Schumer said the practice, in which brokers get a split- second advance peek at buy and sell orders for stock, risked creating a two-tiered market that favored those with sophisticated computer systems over retail investors. Schapiro, after a telephone conversation with Schumer, told her staff to get to work on a ban. To make sure she honored the commitment, the senator put out a press release disclosing their phone conversation and Schapiro’s pledge. The SEC proposed a prohibition on flash trades in September and the agency’s staff is now reviewing public comments. Schumer spokesman Brian Fallon didn’t respond to requests for comment. SEC Commissioner Casey and Senator Robert Menendez , a New Jersey Democrat, are among those who want the SEC to resist what they consider political influence. Menendez, whose state is home to Jersey City, New Jersey-based Direct Edge, sent Schapiro a letter on Dec. 9 advising her to base decisions about whether to ban trading practices on data, not input from “commentators.” Schapiro said she’s not worried “at all” about the level of congressional feedback. “I welcome hearing their views just like I welcome hearing the views of the stock exchanges and the clearinghouses, retail investors and the institutional investors,” she said in the interview. “It’s all part of the mix.” Weakened Clout Her responsiveness to the concerns of lawmakers may reflect the weakened clout of the SEC after the agency missed Madoff’s fraud and politicians accused it of failing to police Wall Street, said former SEC General Counsel Ralph Ferrara . “What’s being done now is to build credibility,” said Ferrara, a partner at Dewey & LeBoeuf LLP in Washington. “If the goal is to protect the agency, then what you do when the bear comes to the mouth of the cave is feed the bear.” There’s evidence that the strategy is working. In May, the Treasury Department was mulling a recommendation to Congress that the SEC relinquish oversight of the $10 trillion mutual- fund industry. Derivatives Regulation Seven months later, the House approved legislation that would increase, not shrink, the SEC’s authority by adding regulation of derivatives to its plate and doubling its $1 billion budget. Senate Banking Committee Democrats also want to give the SEC authority over derivatives. Traders use the mostly unregulated contracts to speculate on everything from interest rates to oil prices, and companies use them to protect against losses. Obama administration officials say a lack of transparency in the $605 trillion derivatives market exacerbated the credit crisis and contributed to the near-failure of American International Group Inc., once the world’s biggest insurer. Under lawmakers’ plans, banks and investors would trade contracts on regulated platforms that are monitored by the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Having won the battle to share oversight of derivatives with the CFTC, Schapiro now must prove that her agency can manage the new responsibility. In preparation, she has hired economists and former Wall Street traders to add market expertise to an agency staff made up mostly of attorneys. Headline-Grabbing Cases Meanwhile, new SEC Enforcement Director Robert Khuzami has tried to restore the prestige Madoff stripped from the agency by focusing on headline-grabbing cases, said Peter Henning , a former SEC attorney who now teaches at Wayne State University Law School in Detroit. The strategy went awry when U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff questioned why the SEC settlement with Bank of America didn’t accuse any executives of wrongdoing. The proposed settlement would have resolved allegations that the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank misled its investors about billions of dollars in bonus payments during the acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co. The $33 million fine reflected a “cynical relationship” that allowed the SEC to say it exposed wrongdoing and permitted Bank of America to say it had been “coerced into an onerous settlement,” Rakoff wrote in a Sept. 14 decision. The SEC now must square off against Bank of America in court next year and has requested a jury trial. Lengthy Court Battles The agency may also face lengthy court battles against Angelo Mozilo , the Countrywide Financial Corp. co-founder sued for inappropriate stock sales, and billionaire investor Raj Rajaratnam , who was accused of insider trading. Like some of Schapiro’s rule proposals, she can’t declare victory until those cases wend their way through the legal system. “She’s taken on the job under extraordinarily difficult conditions, given constant demands from lawmakers and the evolving financial crisis,” said Barbara Roper , director of investor protection for the Washington-based Consumer Federation of America. “That’s had an impact on what she’s been able to accomplish. The next year will be a real proving ground.” To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Westbrook in Washington at jwestbrook1@bloomberg.net .

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Iran Detains 1,000 in Crackdown on Opposition Protests, Rights Group Says

December 30, 2009

By Henry Meyer and Ali Sheikholeslami Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — Iran has detained about 1,000 people in a continuing crackdown after the biggest anti-government demonstrations in six months, a human rights group said. The Iranian police warned it will crush any further protests. The New York-based International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran said it feared that the detainees, who include prominent opposition activists and journalists, would be tortured to produce false confessions that the protests were instigated by foreign governments. “It may be assumed that many detainees will be subjected to torture followed by ‘show trials’ and convicted of crimes that carry the death penalty in the Islamic Republic,” a spokesman for the group, Aaron Rhodes , said in an e-mailed statement late yesterday. The figure for the number of arrests is based on the group’s monitoring of reports by rights activists and opposition Web sites inside Iran, Rhodes said in a telephone interview today. Iran yesterday accused Western countries of inciting the Dec. 27 clashes between opposition supporters and security forces in the capital Tehran and other cities, which killed at least eight people, according to state media reports. The U.S. and European Union states have condemned the crackdown, a factor that could harden Iran’s stance toward its nuclear dispute with the West, analysts said. Police Warning General Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, Iran’s police chief, said police will deal severely with anyone who takes part in opposition rallies, the state-run Fars news agency reported. He said that what he called a period of leniency was over, Fars said. The police arrested 500 people on Dec. 27, Ahmadi-Moghaddam said, adding that 120 officers were injured during that day’s clashes. Some more demonstrators have since been arrested by intelligence services, he said. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad , whose disputed re-election in June sparked the unrest, called the latest protests a foreign-backed “nauseating masquerade” in comments cited by the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency . Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have repeatedly linked the demonstrations to Western efforts to undermine Iran, rejecting opposition allegations of vote fraud. The renewed unrest comes as the U.S. and its allies step up pressure on Iran to prove it’s not seeking to build nuclear weapons. Nuclear Tensions The U.S. government has threatened to impose more sanctions after a Dec. 31 deadline unless Iran responds to diplomatic efforts aimed at securing international controls over its nuclear work in return for better ties with the West. Kazakhstan today denied a report that it planned to supply Iran with a large consignment of uranium, Russian state news service RIA Novosti reported, citing a spokesman for the Kazakh Foreign Ministry. The Iranian mission at the United Nations also issued a statement denying the report. The Associated Press said that Iran was close to agreeing on a deal to clandestinely import 1,350 tons of purified uranium ore from Kazakhstan. It cited an intelligence report. The transfer of any uranium yellowcake to Iran would constitute a clear violation of UN Security Council sanctions, State Department Spokesman Ian Kelly wrote in an e-mail yesterday. “The transfer of uranium to Iran is prohibited,” Kelly said. Uranium Enrichment Iran has refused UN demands to suspend enrichment of uranium, which can produce material for a bomb or to fuel power stations. The oil-rich Persian Gulf country says its nuclear activities are purely aimed at generating electricity. The U.S. is preparing limited sanctions against Iran that would target elements of the regime rather than broad-based economic sanctions that could alienate the Iranian people, the Washington Post said today, citing unidentified U.S. officials. “The U.S. should be very careful not to impose broad-based sanctions that hurt the people, not the regime,” said Trita Parsi, head of the Washington-based National Iranian American Council, the largest U.S.-Iranian association. The worst thing the Obama administration could do right now is to provide ammunition for efforts to “wipe out the opposition,” Parsi said in a phone interview from New York. Opponents of Ahmadinejad have been protesting since the June election, which sparked the largest anti-government demonstrations since the overthrow of the Shah in the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The protests were violently suppressed. The government said 36 people were killed in the aftermath of the vote, while the opposition said twice as many died. About 4,000 protesters were detained and more than 140 have been put on trial. Unrest flared again this month at the funeral of a leading clerical opponent of Khamenei, Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri. “We’re seeing a pattern of the government shooting itself in the foot with brutality,” Parsi said. “At the moment, the momentum seems to be with the opposition.” To contact the reporter on this story: Henry Meyer in Dubai at hmeyer4@bloomberg.net ; Ali Sheikholeslami in London at alis2@bloomberg.net .

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Iran Detains 1,000 in Crackdown on Opposition Protests, Rights Group Says

December 30, 2009

By Henry Meyer and Ali Sheikholeslami Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — Iran has detained about 1,000 people in a continuing crackdown after the biggest anti-government demonstrations in six months, a human rights group said. The Iranian police warned it will crush any further protests. The New York-based International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran said it feared that the detainees, who include prominent opposition activists and journalists, would be tortured to produce false confessions that the protests were instigated by foreign governments. “It may be assumed that many detainees will be subjected to torture followed by ‘show trials’ and convicted of crimes that carry the death penalty in the Islamic Republic,” a spokesman for the group, Aaron Rhodes , said in an e-mailed statement late yesterday. The figure for the number of arrests is based on the group’s monitoring of reports by rights activists and opposition Web sites inside Iran, Rhodes said in a telephone interview today. Iran yesterday accused Western countries of inciting the Dec. 27 clashes between opposition supporters and security forces in the capital Tehran and other cities, which killed at least eight people, according to state media reports. The U.S. and European Union states have condemned the crackdown, a factor that could harden Iran’s stance toward its nuclear dispute with the West, analysts said. Police Warning General Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, Iran’s police chief, said police will deal severely with anyone who takes part in opposition rallies, the state-run Fars news agency reported. He said that what he called a period of leniency was over, Fars said. The police arrested 500 people on Dec. 27, Ahmadi-Moghaddam said, adding that 120 officers were injured during that day’s clashes. Some more demonstrators have since been arrested by intelligence services, he said. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad , whose disputed re-election in June sparked the unrest, called the latest protests a foreign-backed “nauseating masquerade” in comments cited by the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency . Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have repeatedly linked the demonstrations to Western efforts to undermine Iran, rejecting opposition allegations of vote fraud. The renewed unrest comes as the U.S. and its allies step up pressure on Iran to prove it’s not seeking to build nuclear weapons. Nuclear Tensions The U.S. government has threatened to impose more sanctions after a Dec. 31 deadline unless Iran responds to diplomatic efforts aimed at securing international controls over its nuclear work in return for better ties with the West. Kazakhstan today denied a report that it planned to supply Iran with a large consignment of uranium, Russian state news service RIA Novosti reported, citing a spokesman for the Kazakh Foreign Ministry. The Iranian mission at the United Nations also issued a statement denying the report. The Associated Press said that Iran was close to agreeing on a deal to clandestinely import 1,350 tons of purified uranium ore from Kazakhstan. It cited an intelligence report. The transfer of any uranium yellowcake to Iran would constitute a clear violation of UN Security Council sanctions, State Department Spokesman Ian Kelly wrote in an e-mail yesterday. “The transfer of uranium to Iran is prohibited,” Kelly said. Uranium Enrichment Iran has refused UN demands to suspend enrichment of uranium, which can produce material for a bomb or to fuel power stations. The oil-rich Persian Gulf country says its nuclear activities are purely aimed at generating electricity. The U.S. is preparing limited sanctions against Iran that would target elements of the regime rather than broad-based economic sanctions that could alienate the Iranian people, the Washington Post said today, citing unidentified U.S. officials. “The U.S. should be very careful not to impose broad-based sanctions that hurt the people, not the regime,” said Trita Parsi, head of the Washington-based National Iranian American Council, the largest U.S.-Iranian association. The worst thing the Obama administration could do right now is to provide ammunition for efforts to “wipe out the opposition,” Parsi said in a phone interview from New York. Opponents of Ahmadinejad have been protesting since the June election, which sparked the largest anti-government demonstrations since the overthrow of the Shah in the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The protests were violently suppressed. The government said 36 people were killed in the aftermath of the vote, while the opposition said twice as many died. About 4,000 protesters were detained and more than 140 have been put on trial. Unrest flared again this month at the funeral of a leading clerical opponent of Khamenei, Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri. “We’re seeing a pattern of the government shooting itself in the foot with brutality,” Parsi said. “At the moment, the momentum seems to be with the opposition.” To contact the reporter on this story: Henry Meyer in Dubai at hmeyer4@bloomberg.net ; Ali Sheikholeslami in London at alis2@bloomberg.net .

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Obama Says U.S. Missed `Red Flags’ Before Northwest Airlines Bomb Attempt

December 30, 2009

By Nicholas Johnston Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama said U.S. intelligence agencies missed “red flags” that would have put a Nigerian man on a no-fly list before Christmas Day, when he is accused of trying to blow up an airliner. The government failed to heed warnings that Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab could pose a terrorist threat even after his father came to U.S. authorities with his concerns, the president said yesterday. “The warning signs would have triggered red flags, and the suspect would have never been allowed to board that plane for America,” Obama said at a U.S. military base near the home in Hawaii where he is vacationing with his family. Obama said he expects preliminary results tomorrow from investigations he ordered into the “systemic failure” in aviation security and terrorist intelligence gathering. Abdulmutallab, a 23-year-old Nigerian, is charged with smuggling explosives onto a Northwest Airlines jet and trying to blow up the plane as it prepared to land in Detroit. The full investigation could take weeks. The president decided to speak yesterday after an intelligence briefing where he was told the government had information on terrorist planning and potential attacks that if taken together might have pointed to the Dec. 25 incident, an administration official told reporters on condition of anonymity. The Central Intelligence Agency learned about Abdulmutallab in November, when his father went to the U.S. embassy in Nigeria to seek help in finding him, agency spokesman George Little said in an e-mail. The agency worked to ensure he was in the government terrorist database “including mention of his possible extremist connections in Yemen,” Little said. No-Fly List Without mentioning the CIA, Obama said, “Weeks ago this information was passed to a component of our intelligence community but was not effectively distributed so as to get the suspect’s name on a no-fly list.” The New York Times quoted two unidentified officials as saying the U.S. had information from Yemen that leaders of an al-Qaeda branch were talking about an unidentified Nigerian being prepared for an attack. The attack, if successful, could have killed almost 300 passengers and crew, Obama said a day earlier. Northwest was acquired by Delta Air Lines Inc. of Atlanta in 2008. Though Abdulmutallab was on a U.S. watch list after the warnings from his father, that didn’t subject him to additional airport screening or bar him from flying. Information ‘Bits’ “It’s becoming clear that the system that has been in place for years now is not sufficiently up to date to take full advantage of the information we collect and the knowledge we have,” Obama said. Even without the report from Abdulmutallab’s father, Obama said, “there were bits of information available within the intelligence community that could have and should have been pieced together.” “Had this critical information been shared, it could have been compiled with other intelligence, and a fuller, clearer picture of the suspect would have emerged,” the president said. The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks prompted the creation of the Department of Homeland Security and an overhaul of U.S. intelligence gathering to encourage better sharing between more than a dozen agencies. Obama directed intelligence agencies to collect all information in government files that could be related to the bombing attempt, the date it was collected and how it had been shared between different departments. He also requested the criteria used for placing people on terrorist watch lists. Napolitano Criticized Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano was criticized for saying on Dec. 27 that the aviation-security system worked during the incident. She later said the system failed by allowing Abdulmutallab to board the flight, although passengers and crew were able to subdue him when he tried to ignite the explosives. “As Secretary Napolitano has said, once the suspect attempted to take down Flight 253, after his attempt, it’s clear that passengers and crew, our homeland security systems, and our aviation security took all appropriate actions,” Obama said. The attempted attack led to new security rules for airline passengers, such as limiting carry-on luggage and allowing pilots to require passengers on international routes to the U.S. to stay in their seats for the last hour of the flight. The Transportation Security Administration said international passengers heading to the U.S. should arrive at the airport an hour earlier than usual, and that even domestic passengers should allow more time to go through security screening. TSA Nominee Blocked Obama’s nominee to head the agency has been blocked in the Senate by South Carolina Republican Jim DeMint because of a dispute over whether the agency’s employees should be allowed to unionize. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid , a Nevada Democrat, yesterday said DeMint’s stalling tactics were “dangerous” and that he would force a vote on the nominee, Erroll Southers, next month. Obama said that even if the aviation-security systems work as intended, the nation can’t be completely safe from terrorism. “There’s still no 100 percent guarantee of success,” he said. “Yet this should only compel us to work even harder, to be even more innovative and relentless in our efforts.” To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Johnston in Honolulu at njohnston3@bloomberg.net

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Aiful Credit-Default Swaps to Be Paid Out After Lender Delays Repayments

December 30, 2009

By Abigail Moses and Yusuke Miyazawa Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — Credit-default swaps insuring about $1.3 billion of Aiful Corp.’s debt will be paid out after Japan’s third biggest consumer lender delayed loan repayments, the International Swaps & Derivatives Association said. Aiful triggered a so-called restructuring event when it agreed to extend the maturity of loans to avoid bankruptcy, ISDA’s Japan Determinations Committee ruled today. The Kyoto- based company said last week it would delay payments on 280 billion yen ($3 billion) of debt until Sept. 30 next year. The committee’s ruling ends a dispute that threatened to undermine confidence in Japan’s default swaps market. It previously rejected three requests to determine a credit event occurred, citing a lack of publicly available information on which to make a judgment, even though Tokyo-based Aozora Bank Ltd. said it hadn’t been paid by Aiful. “This is significant in Japan’s credit-default swaps history,” said Junichi Shimizu , an analyst at Deutsche Bank AG in Tokyo. “It will be a precedent.” Aiful faced possible failure after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. this month demanded that its 3.7 billion yen in loans be repaid. The company offered to settle the borrowing at a discount to win the New York-based lender’s support for its restructuring proposal, two people familiar with the matter said on Dec. 11. First Auction It’s the first time swaps on a Japanese company will be settled at auction and may set a model for future events. Japan Airlines Corp . plunged to a record in Tokyo trading today on speculation the company may seek bankruptcy protection. Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a company fail to meet its debt commitments. A total 2,780 contracts were outstanding on Aiful debt as of Dec. 25, making it the second-most insured Japanese borrower after the government, according to Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. in New York, which runs a central registry that captures most trading. Run by founder and Chief Executive Officer Yoshitaka Fukuda , Aiful hasn’t sold bonds in public markets since March 2007 and reported a record first-half loss of 282.3 billion yen in November. It struggled with debt after a crackdown by authorities on excessive interest rates made Japan’s consumer lenders liable to pay billions of dollars of refunds. Aiful said Dec. 24 it will have repaid 76 billion yen by June 10, 2014. It also said 2,095 employees will retire by Feb. 28, helping reduce annual staff costs by 13 billion yen, and that it took a one-time charge of 5.8 billion yen for the cuts. To contact the reporter on this story: Abigail Moses in London at Amoses5@bloomberg.net ; Yusuke Miyazawa in Tokyo at ymiyazawa3@bloomberg.net

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Stocks Fall Worldwide, Led by Commodity Companies; Canadian Dollar Weakens

December 30, 2009

By Stuart Wallace Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — The MSCI World Index of stocks fell for the first time in three days, led by commodity companies, the best-performing industry this year. Currencies of raw- material producers weakened. The World Index of 23 developed nations dropped 0.5 percent at 11:40 a.m. in London, with the commodities group retreating 0.9 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.5 percent, as did Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures. The Canadian dollar, known as the loonie, declined against 16 of its most-traded counterparts and the Australian dollar fell against 11. China led world economies out of recession this year, and the nation’s demand for raw materials spurred a 50 percent gain in the S&P GSCI index of 24 commodities, the best performance in almost four decades. Valuations on commodity stocks rose to a record, with the World Index’s materials group trading at 81 times earnings , according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “After strong gains over the past year, there’s a propensity to lock in profits and reposition for 2010,” said Mark Pervan , a senior commodity strategist at ANZ Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index declined 0.7 percent. Basilea Pharmaceutica Ltd. slumped as much as 28 percent, the most in 10 months, after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration rejected the Swiss biotechnology company’s experimental antibiotic for skin infections. The index, which will be calculated for the last time this year today, is heading for a 27 percent annual gain, the biggest in 10 years. Japan, Russia The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as Japan Airlines Corp. tumbled to a record low in Tokyo on speculation the carrier will file for bankruptcy. Asia’s biggest airline by sales fell 24 percent as Japan’s Cabinet met to discuss the airline’s future. Equity indexes of commodity-producing nations fell, with South Africa’s FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index sliding 1.1 percent, Kazakhstan’s KASE Index down by the same amount and Russia’s Micex Index losing 0.8 percent. Futures trading indicated the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will decline for a second day. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. business barometer, due at 9:45 a.m. in New York, may have eased to 55.1 from a one-year high of 56.1 in November, according to the median estimate of 53 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Readings above 50 signal expansion. Dollar Rises The dollar rose 0.3 percent to 92.26 yen, after climbing to a two-month high of 92.28 yen. The U.S. currency advanced 0.2 percent to $1.4327 per euro, on course for its first monthly gain since June. The Canadian dollar fell 0.6 percent to C$1.0495 per U.S. dollar and the Australian dollar declined 0.3 percent to 89.25 U.S. cents. Copper for delivery in three months rose 0.6 percent to $7,319 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, advancing for a fourth session and extending this year’s advance to 138 percent. Palladium for immediate delivery rose 2.2 percent to $395.45 an ounce, the most since July 2008, and crude oil for February fell 0.2 percent to $78.75 a barrel. Treasuries were little changed, with the yield on the 10- year note at 3.80 percent. The U.S. is scheduled to sell $32 billion of seven-year debt today, the last of three auctions this week totaling $118 billion. The government sold a record- tying $42 billion of five-year securities yesterday and $44 billion in two-year notes on Dec. 28. U.S. government securities have fallen 3.6 percent this year, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes, the worst annual performance since at least 1978, when Merrill began collecting the data. To contact the reporter on this story: Stuart Wallace in London at swallace6@bloomberg.net

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Stocks Fall Worldwide, Led by Commodity Companies; Canadian Dollar Weakens

December 30, 2009

By Stuart Wallace Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — The MSCI World Index of stocks fell for the first time in three days, led by commodity companies, the best-performing industry this year. Currencies of raw- material producers weakened. The World Index of 23 developed nations dropped 0.5 percent at 11:40 a.m. in London, with the commodities group retreating 0.9 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.5 percent, as did Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures. The Canadian dollar, known as the loonie, declined against 16 of its most-traded counterparts and the Australian dollar fell against 11. China led world economies out of recession this year, and the nation’s demand for raw materials spurred a 50 percent gain in the S&P GSCI index of 24 commodities, the best performance in almost four decades. Valuations on commodity stocks rose to a record, with the World Index’s materials group trading at 81 times earnings , according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “After strong gains over the past year, there’s a propensity to lock in profits and reposition for 2010,” said Mark Pervan , a senior commodity strategist at ANZ Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index declined 0.7 percent. Basilea Pharmaceutica Ltd. slumped as much as 28 percent, the most in 10 months, after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration rejected the Swiss biotechnology company’s experimental antibiotic for skin infections. The index, which will be calculated for the last time this year today, is heading for a 27 percent annual gain, the biggest in 10 years. Japan, Russia The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as Japan Airlines Corp. tumbled to a record low in Tokyo on speculation the carrier will file for bankruptcy. Asia’s biggest airline by sales fell 24 percent as Japan’s Cabinet met to discuss the airline’s future. Equity indexes of commodity-producing nations fell, with South Africa’s FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index sliding 1.1 percent, Kazakhstan’s KASE Index down by the same amount and Russia’s Micex Index losing 0.8 percent. Futures trading indicated the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will decline for a second day. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. business barometer, due at 9:45 a.m. in New York, may have eased to 55.1 from a one-year high of 56.1 in November, according to the median estimate of 53 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Readings above 50 signal expansion. Dollar Rises The dollar rose 0.3 percent to 92.26 yen, after climbing to a two-month high of 92.28 yen. The U.S. currency advanced 0.2 percent to $1.4327 per euro, on course for its first monthly gain since June. The Canadian dollar fell 0.6 percent to C$1.0495 per U.S. dollar and the Australian dollar declined 0.3 percent to 89.25 U.S. cents. Copper for delivery in three months rose 0.6 percent to $7,319 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, advancing for a fourth session and extending this year’s advance to 138 percent. Palladium for immediate delivery rose 2.2 percent to $395.45 an ounce, the most since July 2008, and crude oil for February fell 0.2 percent to $78.75 a barrel. Treasuries were little changed, with the yield on the 10- year note at 3.80 percent. The U.S. is scheduled to sell $32 billion of seven-year debt today, the last of three auctions this week totaling $118 billion. The government sold a record- tying $42 billion of five-year securities yesterday and $44 billion in two-year notes on Dec. 28. U.S. government securities have fallen 3.6 percent this year, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes, the worst annual performance since at least 1978, when Merrill began collecting the data. To contact the reporter on this story: Stuart Wallace in London at swallace6@bloomberg.net

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Dubai sets limit for rent increases for 2010 (Arabian Business)

December 30, 2009

Decree issued by Dubai ruler in bid to improve stability in battered real estate market.

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PHIGroup to Assist Innovative NeuroTechnologies to Access European Capital Markets

December 30, 2009

LOS ANGELES and FRANKFURT, Germany, Dec. 30, 2009 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — PHIGroup, Inc. (OTCBB:PHIE) (Frankfurt:PR7) (XETRA:PR7) (WKN A0RNQV), a company engaged in the development and management of real estate properties, mining interests and consulting and merger and acquisition advisory services, announced today that the company has agreed to assist Innovative NeuroTechnologies, Inc. http://www.innovneurotech.com (INT) to list its shares on a leading European stock market and arrange funding for further development and growth.

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Real Money (Dec. 31): Capital Raisings, Property Financings

December 30, 2009

Calyon, and Royal Bank of Canada. Fifth Third Bank and SunTrust Bank were senior managing agents, and ING Real Estate Finance and Regions Bank were managing agents. Each of these lenders increased the size of their commitment level. In addition to the

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Dutch Gold Resources Outlines Plans for 2010 and Announces Management Changes

December 30, 2009

ATLANTA, GA–(Marketwire – December 30, 2009) – Dutch Gold Resources, Inc. ( http://www.dutchgoldresources.com ) ( PINKSHEETS : DGRI ) today announced the Company’s plans going forward for 2010 and management changes to facilitate maximum growth in the coming year. With regard to the Company’s strategy for 2010: Dutch Gold expects to make application to the Toronto Stock Exchange during First Quarter 2010. Management has undertaken steps to bring DGRI fully reporting by the end of January 2010. In a transaction aimed at expanding the ability of the Company to participate in the mining segment, Aultra Gold Resources, Inc. will become a subsidiary of DGRI, and remain publically traded, with a well defined business plan. Announcements will be forthcoming as to the nature of the Aultra plan by the end of January.

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Financial Reform Bill: Bankers Get $4 Trillion Gift From Barney Frank: David Reilly

December 30, 2009

The reading was especially painful since this reform sausage is stuffed with more gristle than meat. At least, that is, if you are a taxpayer hoping the bailout train is coming to a halt. If you’re a banker, the bill is tastier. While banks opposed the legislation, they should cheer for its passage by the full Congress in the New Year: There are huge giveaways insuring the government will again rescue banks and Wall Street if the need arises.

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