January 2010

Obama Slam at Court on Foreign Election Spending Hints at Next Legal Clash

January 29, 2010

By Greg Stohr Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama may have overstated the impact of a Supreme Court ruling that lifted limits on corporate political spending when he told the nation it “will open the floodgates” to foreign companies influencing U.S. elections. At the same time, Justice Anthony Kennedy’s majority opinion left open the possibility that some day foreign corporations will be free to spend money in U.S. political campaigns. Resolving that question “would require another lawsuit,” said Tara Malloy , a lawyer with the Washington-based Campaign Legal Center, which has criticized the ruling. Those sorts of suits “are coming full speed ahead.” On its face, the 5-4 ruling applied only to domestic companies and didn’t disturb provisions restricting foreign participation in U.S. elections. The court said the Constitution’s free-speech clause guarantees that corporations can spend money from their general treasuries to oppose or support candidates. Kennedy devoted only one paragraph in his 57-page opinion to the issue of foreign corporations. He said the court didn’t need to consider the question because the law being reviewed applied to all corporations, not just foreign ones. Kennedy said the disputed measure would be too broad even if the justices assumed that the government could limit foreign influence over elections. Ruling’s Logic In dissent, Justice John Paul Stevens said the logic behind the majority opinion suggested it would apply to foreign corporations. Kennedy said the First Amendment “generally prohibits the suppression of political speech based on the speaker’s identity.” That reasoning “would appear to afford the same protection to multinational corporations controlled by foreigners as to individual Americans,” Stevens wrote. The decision divided the court along ideological lines. Obama may have taken an unprecedented step by using his State of the Union speech this week to criticize the justices. Presidents have mentioned the court during State of the Union addresses only nine times since 1913 and even in those instances have never leveled such direct criticisms, according to an analysis by Legal Times, a Washington legal publication. Obama also said the ruling “reversed a century of law.” His comments came before an audience that included six justices, five of whom stifled any expression. Only Samuel Alito , who voted with court majority in the case, shook his head and mouthed, “that’s not true” as Obama spoke. No Clarification Which part of Obama’s remarks prompted Alito’s reaction wasn’t clear, and the justice declined a request for clarification made through the court’s Public Information Office. The president’s comments drew criticism from supporters of the ruling, including Bradley A. Smith , a Republican former Federal Election Commission chairman and current chairman of the Center for Competitive Politics in Alexandria, Virginia. Smith said the court didn’t preclude the possibility that restrictions on foreign corporations could survive as a means of protecting against corruption. “The court isn’t saying you can’t discriminate against speakers at all,” Smith said. “They’re just saying you’ve got to have a reason.” Leahy Comments Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy , a Democrat from Vermont, faulted the majority for not making clear whether the ruling applied to foreign corporations. “Can the Chinese come in and decide in effect American elections?” he said on the Senate floor. Foreign campaign contributions became an issue in the late 1990s because of reports that Chinese and Indonesian donors funneled money into Democratic Party coffers during President Bill Clinton’s 1996 reelection campaign. Several fund raisers pleaded guilty or were convicted of various offenses. For now, foreign corporations and individuals are bound by both a statute and FEC rules barring them from spending money in U.S. elections. U.S. subsidiaries of foreign corporations are also restricted in their election activities. Under a 2006 FEC advisory opinion, those subsidiaries can spend only with funds derived from U.S. operations and only if the decisions are made by company officials who are American citizens or permanent residents. The FEC laid out those rules because some states already allowed corporate election spending. Similar rules limit foreign influence at U.S. corporations that have overseas affiliates or prominent foreign shareholders, Malloy said. Matter of Dispute Whether those rules will prove to be enforceable is a matter of dispute. “How are we ever going to know what is going on internally in a U.S. subsidiary that is wholly owned by a foreign parent?” Malloy said. Smith questioned whether subsidiaries would run the risk of criminal prosecution by skirting the restrictions on foreign influence. “I just don’t see any reason to believe that you’re going to have this massive jump to spend money by corporations generally, let alone by foreign corporations,” he said. To contact the reporter on this story: Greg Stohr in Washington at gstohr@bloomberg.net .

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Economy in U.S. Probably Grew by Most in Four Years as Factories Rebounded

January 29, 2010

By Timothy R. Homan Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. economy probably grew in the closing months of 2009 at the fastest pace in almost four years as factories cranked up assembly lines, economists said ahead of a government report today. The world’s largest economy expanded at a 4.7 percent pace from October through December, more than double the growth rate in the prior three months and the most since the first quarter of 2006, according to the median estimate of 84 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Other reports may show consumer sentiment rose and a weak job market held down labor costs. Manufacturers such as Intel Corp. may keep leading the recovery as increasing sales prompt companies to restock inventories. A slowdown in consumer spending is a reminder that 10 percent unemployment is causing Americans to hold back, one reason why the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates low and the Obama administration is proposing new plans to create jobs. “We ended 2009 on a strong note, adding to evidence that the U.S. economy is recovering,” said Stuart Hoffman , chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group Inc. in Pittsburgh. “This quarter isn’t starting out as rapidly, as best we can tell, but we’re not going to relapse into recession.” The Commerce Department’s report on gross domestic product is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. The economy grew at 2.2 percent pace in the third quarter of last year, the first gain in more than a year. It shrank 3.8 percent in the 12 months to June, marking the worst recession since the 1930s. Consumer Slowdown Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, probably rose at a 1.8 percent annual rate last quarter after increasing at a 2.8 percent pace in the previous three months, the GDP report is projected to show. Purchases received a boost in the third quarter from the government’s auto-incentive program that offered buyers discounts to trade in older cars and trucks for new, more fuel- efficient vehicles. The plan expired in August. Stocks rallied last year on mounting signs the economic slump was ending. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 65 percent in 2009 after reaching a 12-year low on March 9. The measure has dropped 2.7 percent so far this month, on concern about the government’s plan to limit risk-taking by banks and China’s move to cool its economy. Texas Instruments Inc. , the second-largest U.S. chipmaker behind Intel, this week forecast profit and sales that beat analysts’ estimates, fueled by demand for consumer electronics and industrial equipment. ‘Solid’ Demand “With demand continuing to be solid and inventories well below historical levels, our outlook for the first quarter reflects the likelihood of sequential growth,” Rich Templeton , chief executive officer of the Dallas-based company, said in a Jan. 25 statement. The estimates followed a similar upbeat revenue assessment from Intel earlier this month. The Santa Clara, California-based company said it expected consumers to continue snapping up portable computers and businesses to increase technology- hardware budgets this year. Smaller declines in inventories adjusted for inflation contributed to growth for a second consecutive quarter as companies picked up the pace of orders and production, economists said. Stockpiles rose 0.4 percent in November, marking the first back-to-back increase in a year, the Commerce Department said earlier this month. A report yesterday showed companies ordered, and factories shipped out, more capital goods such as machinery and computers in December, indicating business investment was picking up. Labor Costs While companies are buying new equipment, they continue to hold down costs by limiting payrolls and worker benefits. Employment expenses rose 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter, the same as in the prior three months, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed before a Labor Department report at 8:30 a.m. The 0.3 percent increase in the first three months of last year was the smallest since records began in 1996. Payrolls fell by 85,000 last month after a 4,000 gain in November that was the first increase in almost two years. The U.S. has lost 7.2 million since the start of the recession in December 2007, the most of any slowdown in the post-World War II era. The jobless rate held at 10 percent in December, the Labor Department said on Jan. 8. A jump in the number of discouraged workers leaving the labor market kept the rate from rising. President Barack Obama this week said job creation will be the “number one focus in 2010.” Speaking during his first State of the Union address, Obama called on Congress to deliver a new jobs bill to his desk. Fed policy makers, after meeting this week, said the recovery is gaining strength and business investment “appears to be picking up.” They also repeated a pledge to keep the benchmark interest rate low for an “extended period.” The central bankers held the overnight lending rate between banks in the range near zero, where it has been for more than a year. To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net

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Spain to Announce Budget Deficit Cut Plan, Seeking to Avoid Greece’s Fate

January 29, 2010

By Emma Ross-Thomas Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — Spanish Finance Minister Elena Salgado presents her plan today for slashing the budget deficit by two-thirds, seeking to avoid the punishment investors have meted out to Greece. The Cabinet will discuss spending cuts of as much as 50 billion euros ($70 billion) by 2013 as well as a proposal to tighten pension rules, said an official at the prime minister’s office in Madrid who declined to be named in line with policy. The government aims to raise the retirement age to 67 from 65, Labor Minister Celestino Corbacho said today. Spain, heading for a second year of economic contraction, is under scrutiny amid investor concern that it will struggle to pay its debts, like Greece. The Greek deficit is 12.7 percent of gross domestic product. Though Spain’s national debt is about half of Greece’s, New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said on Jan. 26 that in some ways the country has “even bigger problems” and poses a larger threat to European monetary union. “We realize that we are the target of people’s focus now, all of us together,” Alfredo Pastor , a professor at IESE business school in Madrid and former deputy finance minister, said in an interview. “We don’t all have the same problems, but we all have one problem or another.” Markets Move The euro declined to a six-month low before recovering to $1.3977 as of 8:59 a.m. in London today. The extra interest investors demand to hold Spanish debt rather than German equivalents was at 95 basis points, five times the level at the start of 2008. The extra yield investors demand to hold Greek 10-year securities widened yesterday to 395 basis points, the most in more than a decade, before easing to 383 basis points. Spain’s budget deficit probably amounted to 11.2 percent of GDP last year, according to the European Commission, which has set a 2013 deadline to cut the shortfall to 3 percent. Its debt is set to double from before the financial crisis. “The Spanish deficit is far too large,” Fitch Ratings Director Christopher Pryce said in an interview in Madrid on Jan. 27. “We would like to see the beginnings of fiscal consolidation, which means either an increase in tax, although I would prefer it to be a reduction in spending.” ‘Clear Reductions’ He’s looking for “clear reductions in current continuing spending” rather than one-off measures, he said. To shore up public finances and convince investors it was serious about its deficit pledges, the government raised taxes on income from savings and announced an increase in value-added tax to take effect July 2010. A budget cut of 50 billion euros amounts to 5 percent of GDP for the euro region’s fourth-largest economy. Portugal disappointed investors and credit-rating companies with the budget it presented to parliament on Jan. 26. Moody’s Investors Service said the “limited deficit reduction this year means that more ambitious cuts will be needed in 2011-2013” and that its current Aa2 credit rating could be at risk. Spain will also struggle to reach the EU deficit ceiling by the 2013 deadline, said Pastor. “We would have to have very high and fast growth, higher than what we can expect,” said Pastor, who as deputy finance minister in 1994 toured world capitals to reassure investors about Spain’s deficit. Surplus to Deficit Government attempts to counter the financial crisis and recession turned a 2007 budget surplus into the third-biggest euro region deficit after Greece and Ireland last year. Spain’s economy will shrink 0.6 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund, even as the euro region, U.K. and U.S. return to growth. Spain has one of the heaviest household-debt burdens in the region and greater than average growth in labor costs. Its 19.4 percent jobless rate, the highest in the euro area, is also swelling the deficit and threatening the recovery. Spain’s debt burden, at just 36 percent of GDP before the crisis in 2007, will still be lower than Germany’s in 2011, according to the commission. Still, concern about the debt burden has led the yield difference with Germany to almost double in past month. “With the discussion on the desolate state of Greece’s public finances, public awareness of these problems has at last risen,” Ralph Solveen , head of economic research at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, wrote in a note. “Along with Italy and Portugal, Spain is now regarded as another candidate for a serious crisis.” To contact the reporter on this story: Emma Ross-Thomas in Madrid at erossthomas@bloomberg.net

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Bank Chiefs Plot Response to Financial Regulators in Private Davos Huddle

January 29, 2010

By Christine Harper and Aaron Kirchfeld Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — Brian Moynihan, Oswald Gruebel and Josef Ackermann , leaders of some of the world’s biggest banks, met during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, to plot how to reassert their influence with regulators and governments. Chief executive officers including Bank of America Corp. ’s Moynihan , UBS AG’s Gruebel and Deutsche Bank AG’s Ackerrmann convened yesterday, a week after U.S. President Barack Obama shocked financiers with plans that may force large banks to limit their size and curb investments in hedge funds and private equity. The private meeting, held down a hallway near the back entrance of the Davos conference center, aimed to prepare executives for another private gathering in Davos on Jan. 30 with top policymakers and regulators, including U.S. House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank . “We’re trying to figure out ways that we can be more engaged,” Moynihan said in an interview after he left the meeting with about 30 financial CEOs. “Because, honestly, we were not considered to be the right kind of people to talk to for the ideas on how to fix this thing.” Moynihan said that much of the discussion was about tactics, such as who the executives should approach and when. He said the bankers were concerned that too much regulation could hamper economic growth and that conflicting national approaches need to be avoided. ‘In Consensus’ “It was a positive meeting, we’re in consensus,” Gruebel said during a break in the three-hour session, declining to provide further details. “Global banks would like to have a level playing field, but regulators have a national view and politicians too.” The attendees included Credit Suisse Group AG CEO Brady Dougan , Barclays Plc President Robert Diamond and HSBC Holdings Plc Chairman Stephen Green . Leaders of many industries hold private meetings at the World Economic Forum every year. Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz , the Columbia University economist who was also in Davos, said bankers welcome the focus on a global accord on regulation. “The bankers are loving this because they know we will never get an agreement and we’ll never get regulation and we’ll go back to where we were,” he said. Kravis, Bernstein, Loeb In a separate private gathering next door, Congressman Frank spoke to about 50 investors, including KKR & Co. co- founder Henry Kravis , Carlyle Group Managing Director David M. Rubenstein and Third Point LLC CEO Daniel Loeb . “The purpose of the meeting was to have a good sense of how do you develop good regulation at a time when there’s so much friction in the market,” said Jack Ehnes , CEO of the California State Teachers’ Retirement System, the second-biggest U.S. public pension fund, who attended the meeting. Frank, wearing snow boots and an untucked shirt under his pinstriped suit, said after the session that he was going to “crack down” on hedge funds. He didn’t elaborate. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said in Davos that there should be a “dialogue” between governments and banks on the technicalities and principals of regulation. “That’s the only way we’re going to get out of it,” she said. Two participants at the bank CEO meeting said that Obama’s proposals didn’t dominate the discussion. ‘Pay, Pay, Pay’ “It’s a little hard to figure out exactly what the words mean, and that will be shaped over time,” Bank of America’s Moynihan said. He said Bank of America and some other banks have a “minimum” amount of profit and revenue derived from so- called proprietary trading and investments. Executives interviewed after the meetings said they understand that new rules are inevitable and urged national regulators to coordinate through the Group of 20 or other international bodies. Some executives said they think the biggest challenge for the industry is overcoming public anger about bonuses and compensation. “When you talk to politicians, the big issue is pay, pay, pay,” UBS’s Gruebel said. Even though the industry has taken steps to reform its pay practices, the public isn’t satisfied, he said. “You can’t say to anyone who’s lost his job that we used to pay someone 10 million and now we’re paying 1 million,” Gruebel said. To contact the reporter on this story: Christine Harper in Davos at charper@bloomberg.net ; To contact the reporter on this story: Aaron Kirchfeld in Frankfurt at akirchfeld@bloomberg.net

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India Raises Reserve Ratio More Than Forecast, Predicting Faster Inflation

January 29, 2010

By Cherian Thomas Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — The Reserve Bank of India told lenders to set aside more deposits as reserves than economists predicted after raising its growth and inflation forecasts. Stocks and bonds fell. Governor Duvvuri Subbarao increased the cash reserve ratio to 5.75 percent from 5 percent, exceeding the median forecast for a half-point move in a Bloomberg News survey, an RBI statement showed in Mumbai today. The bank kept benchmark interest rates unchanged. The decision is India’s biggest step yet toward raising borrowing costs as inflation and asset-bubble concerns reverberate across Asia. China, Malaysia and the Philippines moved closer toward raising rates this month and Australia and Vietnam have already done so, spurring a sell-off in stocks and bolstering the outlook for currency gains in the region. “The policy is indicating a sequential step towards monetary tightening in India,” said Shubhada Rao, chief economist at Yes Bank Ltd. in Mumbai. “The bank may raise policy rates before the next scheduled meeting,” on April 20. India’s benchmark stock index extended its drop, bond yields rose and the rupee weakened after the report. The Sensitive stock index fell 1.2 percent to 16,105.75, while the yield on 10-year government bonds increased to 7.59 percent from 7.55 percent at 11:20 p.m. in Mumbai. The rupee weakened to 46.39 against the dollar from 46.36 before the report. Gaining Momentum Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said India’s economic growth could “gain momentum” over the next year and “reinforce” inflationary pressures. The central bank raised its inflation forecast to 8.5 percent by March 31 from 6.5 percent. “The message being sent across is that stern steps will be taken going forward to contain inflation,” said Killol Pandya, who oversees the equivalent of $152 million in Indian debt at Shinsei Asset Management India Pvt. in Mumbai. “There are indications the economy is turning around.” In China, the central bank ordered some banks to pare lending, raised the ratio for deposits banks must set aside as reserves and guided bill yields higher this month after loan growth surged. Malaysia kept borrowing costs unchanged on Jan. 26, while warning that rates cannot be kept “too low” for too long because of the need to prevent a build-up of “financial imbalances.” The Philippines increased its so-called rediscounting rate, one of the interest rates it charges lenders for borrowing money from the central bank, as it began unwinding stimulus measures. Equities Retreat Equities have retreated on concern that the withdrawal of stimulus measures will slow a rebound in corporate earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific index has lost 7.3 percent in the past two weeks. Analysts anticipate currency gains as strengthening economies force central banks to act. The rupee may gain almost 8 percent by year-end to 43 per dollar, according to the median forecast in Bloomberg survey. China’s yuan and Malaysia’s ringgit are estimated to advance 3.7 percent. The Reserve Bank estimates India’s $1.2 trillion economy, Asia’s third largest, will expand 7.5 percent in the year ending March 31, more than its October forecast of 6 percent “with an upward bias,” Subbarao said in the statement today. The bank left its benchmark reverse repurchase rate unchanged at 3.25 percent and the repurchase rate at 4.75 percent, today’s statement said. The increase in cash reserves will drain 360 billion rupees ($7.8 billion) from the banking system in two stages, on Feb. 13 and Feb. 27. Exacerbate Inflation “As growth accelerates and the output gap closes, excess liquidity, if allowed to persist, may exacerbate inflation expectations,” Subbarao said in the statement. “Though the inflationary pressures stem predominantly from the supply side, the consolidating recovery increases the risks of these spilling over into a wider inflationary process.” India’s benchmark wholesale-price inflation accelerated to 7.3 percent in December, the fastest pace since November 2008. Food accounted for 80 percent of December’s inflation reading, government data showed, as deficient rains last year hurt output of rice, wheat and sugar. Subbarao’s move is aimed at checking manufacturing inflation that surged to 5.2 percent in December from 1.6 percent in October. Industrial production rose 11.7 percent in November, the fastest pace in two years, as sales at companies including Hero Honda Motors Ltd. surged. Hero Honda, the nation’s biggest motorcycle maker, reported a better-than-estimated 79 percent increase in third- quarter net income after sales climbed. Food Inflation “Tighter monetary policy will have no impact on inflation as it is largely a supply-side-driven phenomenon,” Harsh Pati Singhania , president of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry in New Delhi, said before the report. “Interest rates should not be increased.” Subbarao said there have been “some signs” of demand pressures on inflation and that he expects the current growth rate of 7.5 percent to continue in the next financial year starting April 1. To ease supply constraints, the government on Jan. 13 announced plans to sell as much as 3 million metric tons of wheat and rice in the open market until March and permit duty- free imports of white sugar until Dec. 31 to increase supplies. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh ’s government is under pressure to tame inflation as opposition parties stepped up their criticism for failing to curb prices. Inflation is politically sensitive in India, where the World Bank estimates almost three-quarters of the nation’s 1.2 billion people live on less than $2 a day. Subbarao said the withdrawal of monetary accommodation can’t be “effective” in controlling inflation unless the fiscal stimulus is also rolled-back in a coordinated manner. He said government borrowing must be cut to contain inflation and to meet credit demand of companies. To contact the reporter on this story: Cherian Thomas in Mumbai at cthomas1@bloomberg.net .

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Greek Bond Yields Show Waning Investor Faith EU Nation Will Avoid Bailout

January 29, 2010

By Matthew Brown and Keith Jenkins Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — Greek bonds and credit-default swaps show investors are starting to doubt that the nation can reduce the largest budget deficit in the European Union without help from outside. The nation’s government bonds are the world’s worst performers in January, losing 4.19 percent in local currency terms and extending their decline over the past three months to 10 percent, Bloomberg/EFFAS indexes show. Credit-default swaps tied to Greece trade at about the same levels as Dubai when it got a $10 billion bailout from Abu Dhabi in December. “There’s a lot of self-fulfilling prophecy, because if you follow the market and sell Greece off then the probability that external help is needed will rise,” said Christoph Kind , the Frankfurt-based head of asset allocation at Frankfurt Trust, which manages about $20 billion. “We will have to see an official statement from EU officials or the European Central Bank on how they can show their support for Greece.” The German and French governments denied a report yesterday in the newspaper Le Monde that European Union member states are examining ways to provide assistance. Prime Minister George Papandreou said the country doesn’t need to borrow from European nations. Greece’s bonds have slumped on concern the government isn’t acting quickly enough to plug a budget deficit that was almost 13 percent of gross domestic product last year, more than four times the EU’s limit. The European Commission said Jan. 27 that Greece hasn’t done enough to tame the shortfall. Yield Climbs The yield on 10-year Greek bonds rose to 7.15 percent yesterday, the highest level since October 1999 and up from 4.99 percent on Nov. 30. The yield is more than 3.9 percentage points higher than benchmark German bunds, the biggest gain since October 1998. The cost of insuring the country’s debt against losses rose to a record yesterday, with credit-default swaps jumping 40 basis points, or 0.4 percentage point, to 414, CMA DataVision prices show. Swaps pay the buyer face value if a borrower defaults in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent. A basis point is equal to $1,000 a year on a contract protecting $10 million of debt. The swaps have risen from 121.8 basis points in October, and compare with 433.4 basis points for Dubai in the weeks before it received cash from Abu Dhabi on Dec. 14. ‘Clock Is Ticking’ The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of Asian stocks slumped 1 percent today and the euro fell to the lowest level in nine months against the yen. Yu Yongding , a former adviser to China’s central bank, yesterday said the government shouldn’t buy a “large chunk” of Greek debt with its $2.4 trillion in reserves because it is more risky than U.S. Treasuries. “I am not sure that a Greek default is inevitable, but the clock is ticking with regard to difficult policy choices,” Marc Seidner , a portfolio manager at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, wrote in an e-mailed response to questions. Financial aid from other European nations would be conditional upon the government introducing new measures to clean up its finances, Le Monde said. Help would consist of bilateral loans from European governments in the absence of a mechanism for a euro-region bailout, the newspaper said. “There is absolutely nothing to these rumors,” German Finance Ministry spokeswoman Jeanette Schwamberger said in an e- mailed statement from Berlin. A French Finance Ministry official in Paris also denied the story. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said in an interview in Davos, Switzerland, he’s “confident” Greece will take the right steps. Greece is being victimized by rumors in financial markets, Papandreou said in an interview yesterday in Davos. “Rumors can overtake the international markets,” he said. “This is, of course, unfair.” ‘Buffer’ for Greece Being a part of the euro has helped “buffer” Greece from an even more drastic reaction in markets, Papandreou said. Greece is determined to meet the EU’s deficit-reduction goals on its own, and the Greek people understand that “painful” measures are needed to cut the shortfall, he said. The bonds of other so-called peripheral European nations dropped. The yield premium investors demand to hold Portuguese bonds instead of bunds increased 17 basis points to 120 basis points, the widest since April 28. Moody’s Investors Service said yesterday Portugal needs a “credible plan” to avoid “further downward pressure on its ratings.” Spreads between Spanish and German debt climbed 8 basis points to 98 basis points. The Italian-German spread rose 6 basis points to 94 basis points. “Greece is the canary-in-the-coal-mine for the entire sovereign risk concern, but the problem goes beyond Greece to all high-debt, high-deficit sovereigns” Seidner said. ‘Corporates as Well’ Investor concern that Greece can’t tackle its budget deficit is hurting the debt of national utility companies and banks, said Philip Gisdakis , head of credit strategy at UniCredit SpA in Munich. “If you fear a Greek crisis then you should not only avoid government bonds but corporates as well,” Gisdakis said. “And if you fear Greece, you should also fear Portugal and Spain.” Contracts on Hellenic Telecommunications rose 10.5 basis points to 149.5 and National Bank of Greece increased 16 basis points to 372. Portugal Telecom climbed 13 to 111 and Energias de Portugal jumped 9 to 100, CMA prices show. “The trend is for wider spreads, and it’s difficult to go against the trend at the moment,” said Wilson Chin , a fixed- income strategist at ING Groep NV in Amsterdam. “The market is looking for some kind of development.” To contact the reporters on this story: Matthew Brown in London at mbrown42@bloomberg.net ; Keith Jenkins in London at Kjenkins3@bloomberg.net

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Almunia Says EU Has No `Plan B’ for Greece, Deficit Won’t Lead to Default

January 29, 2010

By Francine Lacqua and John Fraher Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — European Union policy makers have no “plan B” to help Greece, the bloc’s top economic official said, seeking to persuade investors that officials in Athens can cut the region’s highest budget deficit. “There is no bailout problem,” said Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia in an interview with Bloomberg Television at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. “Greece will not default. In the euro area, default does not exist.” Greek bonds have declined as speculation mounts that the country will need help from the EU. Prime Minister George Papandreou yesterday said Greece is being victimized by rumors in financial markets and he denied seeking to borrow from European partners. Almunia dismissed as “sensationalist” newspaper reports that the euro region was discussing options to bail out Greece. Handelsblatt cited a draft EU document today as saying euro region finance ministers have “grave concern” about the currency bloc given the problems facing Greece and other nations. “Don’t look for secret papers that don’t exist,” said Almunia. Credit and currency markets underscore declining investor confidence in Greece. The euro has declined to a six-month low of $1.3913 after weakening 2.4 percent so far this year. Greek government bonds are the world’s worst performers in January, losing 4.19 percent in local currency terms and extending their decline over the past three months to 10 percent, Bloomberg/EFFAS indexes show. Credit-default swaps tied to Greece trade at about the same levels as Dubai when it got a $10 billion bailout from Abu Dhabi in December. To contact the reporter on this story: John Fraher at jfraher@bloomberg.net

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Video: London Mayor Johnson Says It’s `Bonkers’ to Slam Bankers

January 29, 2010

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — London Mayor Boris Johnson talks with Bloomberg’s Andrea Catherwood about the future of the finance industry in the U.K. capital. They speak at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

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Video: Levy Says Publicis Benefiting From Digital Investments

January 29, 2010

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — Maurice Levy, chief executive officer of Publicis Groupe SA, talks with Bloomberg’s Francine Lacqua about the growth of the company’s digital business. Speaking at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, Levy also assesses the outlook for individual industry groups.

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Video: VTB’s Kostin Doubts New Rules Will Hurt Russian Banks

January 29, 2010

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — Andrei Kostin, chief executive officer of VTB Group, Russia’s second-largest bank, talks with Bloomberg’s Francine Lacqua about proposed changes to financial industry regulation. They speak at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

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Video: EU’s Almunia Says `No Plan B’ to Plug Greek Deficit

January 29, 2010

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia talks with Bloomberg’s Francine Lacqua about Greece’s finances and whether the country will receive EU help in cutting its budget deficit. They speak in Davos, Switzerland, at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting. (Source: Bloomberg)

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A&B Properties Completes $81M in Retail Sale Transactions

January 29, 2010

A&B Properties, the real estate subsidiary of Honolulu, HI-based Alexander & Baldwin, closed on the $50.3 million sale of Mililani Shopping Center, which is located in Central Oahu, Hawaii. Newport, CA-based Stoneridge Capital Partners acquired the 180…

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Japan’s Production Rises, Unemployment Falls as BOJ Highlights Yen Concern

January 28, 2010

By Aki Ito and Keiko Ujikane Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — Japan’s industrial production rose and unemployment fell in December, signaling a continued recovery, while central bankers considered the threat to the economy from exchange rates, reports showed today. Factory output increased 2.2 percent from the previous month, less than economists had projected, Trade Ministry figures showed today in Tokyo. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.1 percent from 5.2 percent, according to a separate release. While the gains in production and jobs may reduce the danger of a return to recession, declines in consumer prices and an appreciating yen are forcing policy makers to remain open to further stimulus. Bank of Japan officials highlighted concern that the yen’s rise to a 14-year high would undermine business sentiment, minutes of their meetings last month showed today. “This confirms that the worst is over,” said Masamichi Adachi , senior economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo. “But these are very, very small improvements, and the jobs recovery ahead is going to be extremely slow, too.” Bond futures rose, and headed for a three-week advance, as the evidence of continued deflation underpinned demand for the relative safety of government debt. Yields on benchmark 10-year bonds fell to 1.305 percent, matching the lowest level since Jan. 4, at Japan Bond Trading Co. The yen rose 0.3 percent to 89.66 per dollar. A separate government report today showed household spending rose 2.1 percent in December from a year before, more than forecast and capping a fifth straight advance. The figures contrasted with data earlier this week showing retail sales tumbled 0.3 percent from a year ago. More Work The economy added 130,000 jobs in December, the biggest increase in four months. People found more work in medical, welfare and education sectors, while there were fewer jobs and manufacturing and retail industries, according to unadjusted figures in the report. “Unemployment has improved a little bit but I don’t think we can be optimistic at all because the number is still more than 5 percent,” Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama told reporters today in Tokyo. “The situation remains where many people want to work but cannot find a job.” Japan’s Diet yesterday approved a 7.2 trillion yen ($80 billion) economic package aimed at bolstering the recovery from the nation’s worst postwar recession. “At least the worst is over,” said Yoshiki Shinke , senior economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. “But I’m concerned unemployment is going to stay stuck at this high level for some time.” Cutting Staff Some companies are still slashing jobs to rein in costs. Promise Co. , Japan’s second-largest consumer lender, said yesterday it will cut 1,600 staff, or a third of its workforce, by the end of March 2011. The Tokyo-based company’s net income slumped 23 percent in the six months ended Sept. 30. Japan Airlines Corp. , which filed for bankruptcy this month, will slash about 15,700 jobs by the end of March 2013. The job-to-applicant ratio rose for a fourth month to 0.46, meaning there are 46 positions for every 100 candidates, the Labor Ministry said today. The same report showed there were 87 newly advertised jobs in December for every 100 people who started looking for work that month, the most since January. Economists regard the gauge as a leading indicator of employment. Exports rose for the first time in 15 months in December, fueling production gains and may also be encouraging companies to increase overtime or hiring. Toyota Motor Corp. and Sumitomo Pipe & Tube Co. are among companies increasing production to meet growing demand in China. Toyota, Nissan Motor Co. and Honda Motor Co. increased global production in December as automobile demand surged in China and U.S. sales recovered. Output at Toyota rose 33 percent from a year earlier, while Honda increased production 3.4 percent and Nissan’s surged 54 percent. The manufacturers plan to increase production 1.3 percent this month and 0.3 percent in February, the government said today. To contact the reporter on this story: Aki Ito in Tokyo at aito16@bloomberg.net ; Keiko Ujikane in Tokyo at kujikane@bloomberg.net

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UBS Man Drops Bonus, Escapes Trading Floor for Luxury Ski-Maker Near Davos

January 28, 2010

By Joseph Heaven and Matthias Wabl Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — UBS AG senior currency strategist Benedikt Germanier decided that he had become just another battery hen on a trading floor where money was everything that counted. So he ditched his bonus and banker life in the U.S. for a pair of handmade skis. “I feel much more down to earth, and I have my destiny in my hands,” says Germanier, 43, sitting in his office in Disentis , an Alpine village 44 miles from Davos where global executives are meeting this week. He is now chief executive of Zai AG and its 10 staff, including carpenters and craftsmen. Germanier says he halved his pay, without giving figures. He also gave up his $7,000-a- month, 250-square meter house with gardener, located 15 minutes from UBS’s Stamford, Connecticut trading floor, which is the size of two football fields. Banks and brokerages worldwide have announced plans to shed about 329,000 jobs, or 5.9 percent of the total, since the beginning of the credit crisis, according to Bloomberg data. Some bankers are now trading for their own account, with private equity firms or boutique investment advisers. Others, such as Germanier, voluntarily left for work outside finance. “To move ahead you need to push yourself out of your comfort zone, and that’s very important,” he says. “It’s not very comfortable” to give up the regular large pay-checks, says Germanier, a 1.87-meter (6-ft-1-inch) sports lover. Germanier, whose dark hair is cropped short, is sitting on a low wood-and-felt bench in his office, wearing Levi’s jeans, a blue V-neck pullover and North Face trekking boots. He used to favor suits and 180-pound ($291) Jeffrey-West shoes. London, New York Germanier’s previous jobs with Switzerland’s biggest banks shuttled him between Zurich, London and New York. He’s still getting up at 5:30 a.m. for a two-and-a-half hour train commute twice a week. His new office, cluttered with skis, maps and photographs, is next to a workshop measuring 500 square meters (5,382 square feet). In the U.S., money was the driver, says Germanier, who grew up in Zurich as the son of a manager in a cement company. “Sometimes I even thought they would sell their grandmother for a trade,” he says, talking about East Coast bankers, and he realized that he had become one of these “hens” on a trading floor, reminding him of a battery farm. Now he’s selling skis built using 50 million-year-old granite as well as high-tech materials. The cheapest cost 3,300 Swiss francs ($3,150) — about four times as much as the high- street average — and the most expensive sell for 9,800. Moving Markets Germanier graduated in Economics from Zurich University aged 28 with the equivalent of a Master’s Degree. His research on global capital flows eventually landed him a job at UBS, making the bank money when Germanier predicted the dollar would fall versus the Swiss franc. “It’s a great feeling of power to make a call and move the market,” he says. His network in Swiss banking still includes central bank President Philipp Hildebrand and Walter Berchtold , today the head of private banking at Credit Suisse Group AG. He misses presentations to senior executives at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the European Central Bank or the Swiss National Bank, Germanier says. As the S&P 500 Index fell through a 12-year low in February 2009, Germanier went on a two-week ski trip to the southeastern region of Switzerland. At a time when colleagues left banks in droves, he met with Simon Jacomet, a ski- instructor who he’d befriended in the 1990s. Business Appeal Jacomet founded Zai in 2003 in search of the perfect ski. Zai means “tough” in the local Romansch language and the company hasn’t turned a profit since its founding. Jacomet asked Germanier to help him improve the business. “I didn’t even think. It came out of my stomach so strongly,” Germanier says. “Sometimes you know you have to do this.” Germanier’s office has windows looking across the empty valley and back to the 2,300-population Disentis and its monastery. Zai sold about 800 skis last season and had 2.5 million francs in revenue. Germanier says there’s a market potential to more than double sales to 2,000 a year. Zai offers to tailor the properties and camber of the skis to individual tastes. They have as many as 18 layers of walnut and cedar wood, woven polymers, India-rubber and gneiss stone from near St. Moritz. The skis are bought by instructors, businessmen, lawyers and farmers’ wives, Germanier says. Large Wallet “You can’t say that the ski is three times as good only because it’s three times as expensive as a normal one,” says Marco Meier, of the Och Sport shop on Zurich’s Bahnhofstrasse. “You also pay for the design and the fact that they are handmade.” Meier, who has tested Zais in the past, says the skis are mostly bought by “rather good skiers with a large wallet,” and he describes the skis as part of the “top-notch category” and “very comfortable and smooth.” The quiet of the village doesn’t prevent Germanier from following the markets on his iPhone, and he still trades on his own account. Instead of expensive meals with clients, he’s having his loyalty card stamped after a 16.80-franc lunch in the buffet restaurant by the train station. “Can I afford this job?” he says. “I wasn’t actually sure, but showing my kids and myself to be free and to do things independently was worth much more than double my salary.” To contact the reporter on this story: Joseph Heaven in Zurich at jheaven1@bloomberg.net ; Matthias Wabl in Zurich at mwabl@bloomberg.net

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Ex-Broadcom Chief Henry Nicholas Has Drug Charges Against Him Dismissed

January 28, 2010

By Edvard Pettersson Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — Former Broadcom Corp. Chief Executive Officer Henry Nicholas , who last month had an options- backdating case against him thrown out, won dismissal of charges that he spiked the drinks of some of the chipmaker’s customers. U.S. District Judge Cormac J. Carney , at a hearing today in Santa Ana, California, set aside the narcotics indictment at the request of the government. Carney dismissed the backdating case against Nicholas, 50, and former Broadcom Chief Financial Officer William Ruehle on Dec. 15 because of witness intimidation by prosecutors. Carney cited Nicholas’s history of drug addiction that led to the charges. “You paid dearly for that,” the judge said. “You’ve lost your marriage, you’ve lost your job. I hope you’ll remain clear and sober.” Nicholas and Ruehle were indicted in 2008 on charges they retroactively decided the dates when Broadcom employees received stock-option grants in order to increase the employees’ profits. The chipmaker had to restate earnings by $2.22 billion from 1998 to 2005 for underreported compensation expenses, the largest backdating-related restatement for any company. Prosecutors separately accused Nicholas of lacing the drinks of technology executives and representatives of Broadcom customers with the drug ecstasy and of supplying drugs to prostitutes he hired for himself and his business partners. Broadcom, based in Irvine, California, makes chips for cable-TV set-top boxes, mobile phones and other communications equipment. Intimidated Witnesses Carney last month ended the backdating trial of Ruehle in its seventh week after finding that prosecutors had intimidated three key witnesses. The judge at the same time dismissed the backdating case against Nicholas, which had been scheduled for trial next month, and told the government it would have to show why the drug case shouldn’t be thrown out as well for misconduct. The prosecution on Jan. 7 asked Carney to dismiss the narcotics case after the judge challenged the government to explain why he shouldn’t find misconduct by prosecutors for threatening to put Nicholas’s teenage son before a grand jury. “Dr. Nicholas is simply grateful and humble that justice has prevailed,” his lawyer, John Potter , said at a news conference after today’s hearing. Carney today also set aside the guilty plea of Nancy Tullos , Broadcom’s former head of human resources, who had admitted to obstruction of justice and who had been a government witness at Ruehle’s trial. In addition, the judge threw out the guilty plea of Craig Gunther, a lawyer who worked for Nicholas’s private investment company. Structured Transactions Gunther had admitted he structured financial transactions to avoid having to report them under a federal law that requires reporting bank withdrawals of more than $10,000. The judge gave the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission seven days to file a new complaint in its civil backdating case complaint against Nicholas, Ruehle, former Broadcom Chairman Henry Samueli and former Broadcom general counsel David Dull . Carney last month had dismissed the initial complaint, saying he didn’t think there was evidence of intentional wrongdoing. The judge said at today’s hearing that if the SEC files new claims, he would be inclined to hold a hearing over whether to grant a pretrial dismissal of the case. Based on the evidence presented at the Ruehle trial, Broadcom did exactly what many other technology companies were doing, the judge said. ‘Interest of Justice’ “The bottom line, I think, is that in the interest of justice, we all need to move on,” Carney said. Acting U.S. Attorney George Cardona said at the hearing that the government hasn’t decided whether it will pursue an appeal of Carney’s December ruling to throw out Samueli’s guilty plea and the backdating charges against Nicholas. The case is U.S. v. Henry T. Nicholas III , 08-00140, U.S. District Court, Central District of California (Santa Ana). To contact the reporter on this story: Edvard Pettersson in Los Angeles at epettersson@bloomberg.net .

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Hatoyama Says Japan’s Government Resolved to Avoid `Double-Dip’ Recession

January 28, 2010

By Sachiko Sakamaki and Takashi Hirokawa Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama said his $80 billion stimulus plan will help Japan from falling back into recession and reiterated his pledge to resolve a dispute with the U.S. over American troop deployments by the end of May. “Our biggest challenge in the economic and fiscal management is putting the Japanese economy on a firm recovery track,” Hatoyama said today in a policy address to parliament, according to a draft of the speech. “We’re resolved to not let the economy double-dip” back into recession. Hatoyama, 62, said the government will work with the Bank of Japan to “promote stronger and more comprehensive economic policies” to beat deflation. The comments came as reports today showed consumer prices fell for a 10th month, while industrial production and employment gained. Hatoyama’s popularity has plummeted since taking office in September as the economy stalled and authorities investigated his campaign finances and those of Ichiro Ozawa , the ruling Democratic Party of Japan’s No. 2 official. Hatoyama apologized again for “causing great inconvenience” after two of his aides last month were charged with falsifying the source of 400 million yen ($4.4 million) that included funds from his mother. The administration has also drawn fire for postponing a decision on whether to adhere to a 2006 agreement with the U.S. to relocate the Futenma Marine Corps Air Station within Okinawa. The U.S. is pressing Hatoyama to stick to the accord, while members of his party, a coalition partner, and a majority of Okinawans want the base moved off the island. ‘Specific Relocation Site’ “The government will decide on a specific relocation site by the end of May,” Hatoyama said. He emphasized the importance of Japan’s security alliance with the U.S., now in its 50th year, calling it “essential” for regional stability. More Japanese voters disapprove of Hatoyama’s Cabinet than support it for the first time, a survey by Nikkei Inc. and TV Tokyo Corp. reported yesterday. His approval rating fell 5 percentage points from December to 45 percent, while the disapproval rating gained by the same amount to 47 percent. The Jan. 26-27 telephone survey received valid responses from 64.7 percent of 1,370 households contacted. No margin of error was given. Parliament yesterday approved the administration’s 7.2 trillion yen stimulus package, which includes subsidies for local governments, incentives for companies to retain workers and support for environmental programs. The Diet has yet to approve the 92 trillion yen budget for the year beginning April. Fiscal Management Strategy Hatoyama said the government will announce a fiscal management strategy to deal with the nation’s record deficit , which is projected to reach 973 trillion yen in March, almost twice the size of gross domestic product. Standard and Poor’s this week lowered the outlook for Japan’s credit rating to negative, citing concern Hatoyama’s administration lacks a plan to rein in the world’s largest debt. Factory output in December increased 2.2 percent from the previous month, less than economists had projected, Trade Ministry figures showed today in Tokyo. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.1 percent from 5.2 percent, according to a separate release. Bank of Japan officials highlighted concern that the yen’s rise to the strongest in 14 years would undermine business sentiment, minutes of their two meetings last month showed today. Japan’s currency, which touched a 14-year high against the dollar of 84.83 last month, was at 89.93 at 1:00 p.m. in Tokyo, almost unchanged from late yesterday in New York. To contact the reporters on this story: Sachiko Sakamaki in Tokyo at Ssakamaki1@bloomberg.net ; Takashi Hirokawa in Tokyo at thirokawa@bloomberg.net

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U.S. `Takes Seriously’ Report of Second American Detained in North Korea

January 28, 2010

By Sangim Han Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. “takes seriously” a report that North Korea has detained a second American in the past month, a State Department spokesman said. North Korea is questioning a U.S. citizen who it said was caught trespassing over its border with China on Jan. 25, the official Korea Central News Agency said yesterday. The communist country last month said it detained an American, identified by U.S. officials as Robert Park, for illegally entering from China. “We’re operating on the assumption that it’s entirely possible that we have a second American citizen detained in North Korea in addition to Robert Park,” State Department spokesman Philip J. Crowley told reporters yesterday in Washington. “It’s obviously something we take seriously.” The U.S., which has no diplomatic ties with North Korea, is seeking information through Swedish authorities, Crowley said. If the report is confirmed, “we would seek consular access urgently and immediately, so that we can determine who it is and verify his condition,” he said. The United Nations has described Park as an American missionary who walked into North Korea to protest the country’s prison system. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has asked for Park’s release on humanitarian grounds, according to the world body. Former U.S. President Bill Clinton in August traveled to the North Korean capital of Pyongyang and met with leader Kim Jong Il to secure the release of two American journalists who were arrested last March near the border with China. Kim’s regime is under UN sanctions for last year’s test of an atomic weapon and the launching of several short- and medium- range missiles. The country has refused to return to six-nation nuclear disarmament talks unless the sanctions are lifted. To contact the reporter on this story: Sangim Han in Seoul at sihan@bloomberg.net

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Japan’s Homebuilding Probably Hit Lowest Level Since 1964 Olympics Heyday

January 28, 2010

By Toru Fujioka and Aki Ito Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — Japan’s housing starts probably fell to the lowest level since the nation celebrated its postwar recovery by hosting the Olympics in 1964, as builders are hobbled by dwindling household incomes and sustained deflation. Construction companies broke ground on 18.8 percent fewer homes in December from a year earlier, bringing the annual total to 785,856, the lowest since the 751,429 recorded in 1964, according to the median estimate of 26 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The pace of decline eased in the past three months. The report, scheduled for release today, highlights a decline that’s likely to see Japan lose its place as the world’s second-largest economy to China this year. Government programs to stimulate the property market have been unable to reverse expectations that home prices will fall, keeping households away from investing in real estate. “It’s been a very miserable year,” said Richard Jerram , chief economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Tokyo. “There certainly is an improvement underway, but it’s been slow to materialize, and it’s starting from very low levels.” Falling wages and mounting job losses sapped demand for new homes last year, sending apartment builder Anabuki Construction Inc. into bankruptcy in November. Starts totaled 719,112 in the first 11 months of 2009. The Land Ministry is scheduled to release the report at 2 p.m. in Tokyo. Figures already published today signaled that the economy continues to recover from its worst postwar recession. Deflation Continues Industrial production rose for a 10th month in December, households increased spending and the unemployment rate fell to 5.1 percent. At the same time, consumer prices slid for a 10th month and minutes of Bank of Japan meetings showed officials were concerned that deflation and a rising yen would hamper the recovery. Japan has been blighted by price declines and sluggish economic growth since an asset bubble burst two decades ago. An index of residential land prices has slid more than 40 percent from its 1991 peak, Japan Real Estate Institute data show. Respondents in a Bank of Japan survey released this month said they expect property values to slump for a seventh quarter. The central bank’s index of household expectations for future land prices dropped, reversing two quarters of improvements. Condo Slump The average price of condominiums fell 5 percent last year in the metropolitan area of Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba, according to the Real Estate Economic Institute. Nationwide residential land prices slid 3.2 percent in 2009 after rising for the previous two years, Land Ministry data show. “More people are asking for discounts, or are looking to share rooms with others,” said Wataru Ichinari, president of Tokyo-based Ichinari Real Estate. “We’re not going to see a full-fledged recovery in the housing market” for at least a couple of years, he said. Policy makers are trying to revive the market. Former Prime Minister Taro Aso ’s administration expanded and extended tax deductions on housing loans. The current government under Yukio Hatoyama included incentives to build and renovate energy- efficient homes in a 7.2 trillion yen ($80 billion) stimulus package passed by parliament yesterday. The housing recession is depleting business at the country’s construction firms. Anabuki Construction filed for bankruptcy with 140 billion yen in debt, becoming the country’s sixth-largest corporate failure last year, according to Tokyo Shoko Research Ltd. Profits in Anabuki’s condominium business plunged following the global financial crisis, the company said in a statement on its Web site. Construction Bankruptcies Bankruptcies in the construction industry last year accounted for more than a quarter of 15,480 failures , the highest among all industries, according to Tokyo Shoko. Even as the employment market starts to improve, the jobless rate has been above 5 percent since last April and wages have slumped for 16 straight months. Employee compensation will slide a record 3.9 percent in the fiscal year ending March 31, and a further 0.7 percent in the following 12 months, the government said last week. The job environment will further dissuade potential home buyers, said Hiroshi Miyazaki , chief economist at Shinkin Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “With unemployment so high and wages dwindling, households just aren’t going to be in the mood to buy a new home.” To contact the reporters on this story: Aki Ito in Tokyo at aito16@bloomberg.net ; Toru Fujioka in Tokyo at tfujioka1@bloomberg.net

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Samsung Says Earnings, Investment to Rise as Electronics Demand Rebounds

January 28, 2010

By Kevin Cho Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — Samsung Electronics Co. forecast earnings will rise this year, prompting Asia’s biggest maker of chips, televisions and mobile phones to “significantly” boost its capital spending plans from the $7 billion invested in 2009. The global economic recovery will probably stimulate demand for TVs, mobile phones and computers, Suwon, South Korea-based Samsung said today, after reporting annual profit jumped 75 percent to a five-year high of 9.65 trillion won ($8.3 billion). Demand for chips and liquid-crystal displays will be “strong” throughout 2010, it said. Sales climbed to a record last quarter as Samsung joined Microsoft Corp. and Nokia Oyj among major technology companies reporting higher earnings this week. Choi Gee Sung , promoted to chief executive officer last month, faces the challenge of defending Samsung’s market share as competition intensifies in TVs from companies including Sony Corp. and in the mobile- handset market from the likes of iPhone-maker Apple Inc. “Chip prices will probably remain strong, which should be really good for Samsung Electronics,” said Chang In Whan , president of KTB Asset Management Co. in Seoul, which manages the equivalent to $8.6 billion in assets. “But I see intensifying competition in the LED TV and mobile-phone markets.” Samsung, which climbed 77 percent last year, fell 2 percent to 792,000 won at 1:01 p.m. on the Korea Exchange, while the benchmark Kospi stock index lost 1.4 percent. Fourth-Quarter Profit The company’s fourth-quarter net income was 3.05 trillion won, swinging from a loss of 22.2 billion won a year earlier. Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft yesterday reported profit and revenue that topped analysts’ estimates, while Intel Corp. , the world’s largest maker of semiconductors, this month forecast higher sales than analysts estimated. Samsung’s net income will be a record 12.7 trillion won this year, according to the median estimate of 39 analysts compiled by Bloomberg. The company said it’s “seriously” reviewing increasing investment for memory chips this year, from its original plan to spend about 5.5 trillion won, to meet rising demand. “We see this positive growth and performance flowing on into 2010 as the global economy continues to stabilize,” Robert Yi , head of Samsung’s investor relations, said in a statement. Profit at Samsung’s semiconductor division was 1.7 trillion won, compared with a loss a year earlier, as prices rose. Micron Technology Inc. and Hynix Semiconductor Inc. , which compete against Samsung in computer memory, both reported their highest profit in at least two years for the most recent quarter. Stronger Computer Demand Chip prices have gained partly because of a rebound in computer demand. Global PC demand will rise 15 percent in 2010, according to Keon Han , an analyst at Morgan Stanley in Seoul. At the LCD business, Samsung reported a profit of 530 billion won from a year-earlier loss, driven by TV demand. LG Display Co. , the second-largest LCD maker after Samsung, last week reported profit and sales that beat estimates and forecast higher prices for the current quarter. Samsung’s digital media division, which makes TVs, posted a profit of about 470 billion won, as the company increased sales of more expensive models using light-emitting diodes as screen backlights. That compares with the 615 billion won median estimate in the analyst survey. 35 Million Sets Global shipments of LCD TVs will rise 22 percent to 171 million units in 2010, Austin, Texas-based research firm DisplaySearch said last month. Samsung, the world’s largest TV maker, said Jan. 7 it expects to sell 35 million LCD sets this year, while LG Electronics Inc. , the second-ranked, plans to ship 25 million in 2010. Samsung aims to sell 10 million LED TVs this year and 2 million 3-D models, it said. Mobile-phone shipments climbed 31 percent to a record 68.8 million, helping income at the telecommunications division rise sevenfold to about 990 billion won, beating the 742 billion won median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 21 analysts. Earnings at the mobile-phone operations echoed results at competitors such as Nokia and LG Electronics as shipments in the handset industry rose an estimated 10 percent, the first increase since the third quarter of 2008. The shipment results in the latest quarter signal an “end to the industry’s year-long recession,” said Neil Mawston , a London-based director at research firm Strategy Analytics. To contact the reporters on this story: Kevin Cho in Seoul at kcho2@bloomberg.net

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Greece Bond Yields Show Waning Investor Faith EU Nation Will Avoid Bailout

January 28, 2010

By Matthew Brown and Keith Jenkins Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — Greece bonds and credit-default swaps show investors are starting to doubt that the nation can reduce the largest budget deficit in the European Union without help from outside. The nation’s government bonds are the world’s worst performers in January, losing 4.19 percent in local currency terms and extending their decline over the past three months to 10 percent, Bloomberg/EFFAS indexes show. Credit-default swaps tied to Greece trade at about the same levels as Dubai when it got a $10 billion bailout from Abu Dhabi in December. “There’s a lot of self-fulfilling prophecy, because if you follow the market and sell Greece off then the probability that external help is needed will rise,” said Christoph Kind , the Frankfurt-based head of asset allocation at Frankfurt Trust, which manages about $20 billion. “We will have to see an official statement from EU officials or the European Central Bank on how they can show their support for Greece.” The German and French governments denied a report yesterday in the newspaper Le Monde that European Union member states are examining ways to provide assistance. Prime Minister George Papandreou said the country doesn’t need to borrow from European nations. Greece bonds have slumped on concern the government isn’t acting quickly enough to plug a budget deficit that was almost 13 percent of gross domestic product last year, more than four times the EU’s limit. The European Commission said Jan. 27 that Greece hasn’t done enough to tame the shortfall. Yield Climbs The yield on 10-year Greek bonds rose to 7.15 percent yesterday, the highest level since October 1999 and up from 4.99 percent on Nov. 30. The yield is more than 3.9 percentage points higher than benchmark German bunds, the biggest gain since October 1998. The cost of insuring the country’s debt against losses rose to a record yesterday, with credit-default swaps jumping 40 basis points, or 0.4 percentage point, to 414, CMA DataVision prices show. Swaps pay the buyer face value if a borrower defaults in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent. A basis point is equal to $1,000 a year on a contract protecting $10 million of debt. The swaps have risen from 121.8 basis points in October, and compare with 433.4 basis points for Dubai in the weeks before it received cash from Abu Dhabi on Dec. 14. ‘Clock Is Ticking’ “I am not sure that a Greek default is inevitable, but the clock is ticking with regard to difficult policy choices,” Marc Seidner , a portfolio manager at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, wrote in an e-mailed response to questions. Any financial aid from other European nations would be conditional upon the government introducing new measures to clean up its public finances, Le Monde said. Help would consist of bilateral loans from European governments in the absence of a mechanism for a euro-region bailout, the newspaper said. “There is absolutely nothing to these rumors,” German Finance Ministry spokeswoman Jeanette Schwamberger said in an e- mailed statement from Berlin following the report. “They are without any foundation.” A French Finance Ministry official in Paris also denied the story. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said in an interview in Davos, Switzerland, that he’s “confident” Greece will take the right steps. Greece is being victimized by rumors in financial markets, Papandreou said in an interview yesterday at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos. “Rumors can overtake the international markets,” he said. “This is, of course, unfair.” ‘Buffer’ for Greece Being a part of the euro has helped “buffer” Greece from an even more drastic reaction in markets, Papandreou said. Greece is determined to meet the EU’s deficit-reduction goals on its own, and the Greek people understand that “painful” measures are needed to cut the shortfall, he said. The bonds of other so-called peripheral European nations dropped. The yield premium investors demand to hold Portuguese bonds instead of bunds increased 17 basis points to 120 basis points, the widest since April 28. Moody’s Investors Service said yesterday Portugal needs a “credible plan” to avoid “further downward pressure on its ratings.” Spreads between Spanish and German debt climbed 8 basis points to 98 basis points. The Italian-German spread rose 6 basis points to 94 basis points. “Greece is the canary-in-the-coal-mine for the entire sovereign risk concern, but the problem goes beyond Greece to all high-debt, high-deficit sovereigns” Seidner said. ‘Corporates as Well’ Investor concern that Greece can’t tackle its budget deficit is hurting the debt of national utility companies and banks, said Philip Gisdakis , head of credit strategy at UniCredit SpA in Munich. “If you fear a Greek crisis then you should not only avoid government bonds but corporates as well,” Gisdakis said. “And if you fear Greece, you should also fear Portugal and Spain.” Contracts on Hellenic Telecommunications rose 10.5 basis points to 149.5 and National Bank of Greece increased 16 basis points to 372. Portugal Telecom climbed 13 to 111 and Energias de Portugal jumped 9 to 100, CMA prices show. “The trend is for wider spreads, and it’s difficult to go against the trend at the moment,” said Wilson Chin , a fixed- income strategist at ING Groep NV in Amsterdam. “The market is looking for some kind of development.” To contact the reporters on this story: Matthew Brown in London at mbrown42@bloomberg.net ; Keith Jenkins in London at Kjenkins3@bloomberg.net

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Corporate Bonds Beat Stock Returns by Most Since February: Credit Markets

January 28, 2010

By Pierre Paulden and Caroline Salas Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — Corporate bonds are beating stocks by the biggest margin since February as investors seek the shelter of fixed income amid concern the global recovery is flagging. While the MSCI World Index of stocks in 23 developed countries has lost 3.36 percent including reinvested dividends this month, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Corporate index gained 1.64 percentage points. Last month, stocks outperformed bonds by 2.4 percentage points. Corporate borrowing costs fell this month as investors sought securities that offered some protection against a slowing economy and traders pushed back estimates for when central banks would increase interest rates. The extra yield investors demand to own company bonds instead of Treasuries has dropped to 165 basis points, or 1.65 percentage points, from 176 at the end of December, according to the Bank of America index. “Some of the economic data has missed expectations, which has been disconcerting for the equity market,” said Eric Green , director of research at Penn Capital Management in Philadelphia, whose firm manages $4.5 billion. “It’s a short-term panicky mode that people are in.” Elsewhere in credit markets, benchmark gauges of corporate credit risk in the U.S. and Europe reached seven-weeks highs yesterday, as Greece’s prime minister sought to quell speculation his country is seeking loans from other nations to trim its deficit. The rise suggests the rally in company bonds may falter. Corporate bond spreads were unchanged yesterday. Corporate Sales Sales of corporate bonds globally totaled $267.9 billion this month, compared with $332.5 billion in the same period last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Financial company commercial paper outstanding rose this week by the most since the Federal Reserve started its program to buy the debt during the credit crisis in October 2008. Rating upgrades exceeded cuts in the fourth quarter for the first time since the second quarter of 2007 and are outpacing downgrades this month, according to Standard & Poor’s. While credit measures are improving, company sales are growing slowly, said Arthur Tetyevsky , the chief fixed-income strategist at Broadpoint Gleacher Securities Inc. in New York. “If you’re an equity investor, you’re looking at the income statements and if you’re a bond investor, you’re looking at balance sheets,” he said. “You could see why equity investors would be a little bit disappointed on these results but corporate bond guys should be more or less OK.” Revenue growth hasn’t been fast enough to extend the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s 60 percent rally since March. While profits among the 188 companies that have reported quarterly results since Jan. 11 beat analysts’ estimates by 13 percent, sales have exceeded forecasts by 1.4 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Falling Stocks After gaining 3.4 percent through Jan. 14, the MSCI stock index fell 6.6 percent through yesterday. Corporate bonds were bolstered by a 1.3 percent return this month in Treasuries, according to Bank of America Merrill data. Investors remain skittish about the economy’s recovery with the U.S. unemployment rate at 10 percent. Greek bonds fell 4.19 percent in local currency terms this month, the biggest decline in the world. President Barack Obama asked Congress last week to limit the size of banks, curb proprietary trading and prohibit them from investing in hedge and private equity funds to prevent a repeat of the worst credit crisis since the Great Depression. Traders see 49 percent odds that the Fed will leave its target rate unchanged at a range of zero to 0.25 percent through June, according to futures on the Chicago Board of Trade. A month ago, a majority was betting on an increase. ‘Perfect Setup’ “There’s been the introduction of uncertainty in several different ways, including fears of sovereign risk and factors stemming from Washington,” said Stephen Antczak , managing director and the head of corporate strategy for Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. in New York. “Everyone was on the same side of the trade. Boom! Perfect setup for risk premiums to widen across the capital structure.” While corporate bond spreads have narrowed, they are up from the low this month of 160 basis points on Jan. 14. Bonds of real estate companies and insurers led the rally, with gains of 3.26 percent and 2.94 percent, while automaker and telecommunications company debt lagged behind at 0.88 percent and 1.15 percent. Of the top 50 borrowers, debt issued by Paris-based Societe Generale , France’s second-largest bank, rose 3.48 percent and bonds of Edinburgh-based lender Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc gained 3.24 percent, the month’s leading performers. Financials, Industrials Financial bonds returned 1.82 percent, compared with 1.53 percent for debt sold by industrial companies, Bank of America index data show. Financials have outperformed industrials for all but one of the past seven months. Blackstone Group LP Chief Executive Officer Stephen Schwarzman said yesterday that banks may start to rein in lending, putting the economic recovery at risk, if politicians keep attacking them and regulatory uncertainty persists. “Financial institutions will feel under siege and they will retreat,” Schwarzman said in a Bloomberg Television interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “Their entire world is being shaken and they’re being attacked personally,” he said. “We don’t need those financial institutions insecure.” Issuance of financial commercial paper increased 10.5 percent to $601.2 billion for the week ended Jan. 27, the Fed said yesterday on its Web site . It was the biggest percentage jump since the period ended Oct. 29, 2008, when sales rose 12.4 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Fed Measures Borrowing rose while the Fed steps back from some of its programs to provide liquidity and as borrowers seek new sources of lending, said Adolfo Laurenti , a deputy chief economist at Mesirow Financial Inc. The Federal Open Market Committee repeated this week that it would close four programs supporting money markets and bond dealers in February and will hold its final Term Auction Facility auction on March 8. “I wouldn’t jump to a conclusion about the recovery of the commercial market yet,” Laurenti said in a telephone interview from Chicago. “It will come back when the economy gains steam.” Overall borrowing in commercial paper rose $54.8 billion to $1.15 trillion in the week ended Jan. 27, a 5 percent increase and the biggest jump since the period ended Oct. 7 when it climbed 5.5 percent, Fed data show. Commercial Paper Companies use commercial paper to finance daily expenses such as payroll and rent. The market seized up in September 2008, when Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy. The Fed started buying 30-day dollar-denominated debt through its Commercial Paper Funding Facility on Oct. 27, 2008, and has said it will stop on Feb. 1. Credit-default swaps on the Markit CDX North America Investment-Grade Index Series 13 rose 0.5 basis point to 96, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group. In London, the Markit iTraxx Europe index climbed 1.5 basis points to 82.75, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The indexes typically rise when investor confidence deteriorates. The Markit CDX investment-grade index has jumped 10 basis points this month and is on track for the first monthly increase since October. Credit swaps pay the buyer face value if a borrower defaults in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point and is equal to $1,000 a year on a contract protecting $10 million of debt. Greek Costs Costs to protect against a default by Greece for five years surged for a second day yesterday, climbing 46 basis points to a record 420 basis points, according to CMA DataVision. Swaps on the Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index, which is linked to 15 governments including Greece, rose 3.5 basis points to a record 90.75, CMA prices show. Rising sovereign risk is spilling over into corporate credit markets as investors speculate on the impact a government funding crisis may have on companies, said Tim Backshall , chief strategist at Credit Derivatives Research in Walnut Creek, California. “If investors are unnerved” by Greece, he said, “then systemic risk should rise across all risky assets.” To contact the reporters on this story: Pierre Paulden in New York at ppaulden@bloomberg.net ; Caroline Salas in New York at csalas1@bloomberg.net

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Asia Stocks Slump, Euro Drops on Rising Greek Deficit, U.S. Unemployment

January 28, 2010

By James Poole and Satoshi Kawano Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — Asia stocks declined, with the regional benchmark posting its biggest weekly loss since March, the euro fell and corporate default risk increased on concern about Greece’s swelling deficit and U.S. unemployment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slumped 1 percent to 117.85 at 12:25 p.m. in Tokyo, set for a 3.8 percent drop for the week, the most since March 6. The euro fell to the lowest level in nine months against the yen and the cost of protecting Asia-Pacific bonds from default climbed. Investors are more skittish after Germany and France denied a report that European Union nations are examining ways to help Greece and as credit-default swaps tied to Greece traded at about the same level as Dubai when it got a $10 billion bailout in December. The Federal Reserve may be preparing to remove some stimulus and emerging market equity funds posted the first net outflow in 12 weeks as China is set to do more to curb lending. “People are getting wary about the outlook for the U.S. economy,” said Juichi Wako , a senior strategist at Tokyo- based Nomura Holdings Inc. “Central banks globally have little room to further loosen policies. We can’t expect excess liquidity to continue to flow into markets and drive up share prices.” About seven stocks declined for each one that advanced on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index . Gauges of material producers and technology companies posted the biggest drops. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed. The U.S. benchmark index slumped 1.4 percent yesterday after the government said initial jobless applications fell less than economists had estimated. Japan, Korea Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average sank 1.6 percent and South Korea’s Kospi Index slid 1.7 percent. Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, slumped 3.2 percent to A$69.18. BHP Billiton Ltd. , Rio’s biggest competitor, sank 2.3 percent to A$39.76. A gauge of six metals, including copper and nickel, tumbled 3.6 percent in London yesterday, the most since Sept. 1. Elpida Memory Inc. , Japan’s biggest computer-memory maker, sank 6.6 percent to 1,643 yen after reporting profit that missed analyst forecasts. Advantest Corp. , the world’s biggest maker of memory-chip testers, fell 8.6 percent to 2,294 yen after forecasting a wider full-year loss than analysts estimated. The companies plunged as the yen climbed, threatening to reduce the value of overseas sales at Japanese companies. Advantest and Elpida generate at least 10 percent of their revenues in the Americas and Europe. ‘Lingering Concern’ “Lingering concerns in the euro-zone are putting selling pressure on cross currencies against the yen,” said Akira Hoshino , chief manager of the foreign-exchange trading department in Tokyo at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. “Economic fundamentals are also weak and leading to stock losses, causing the yen and the dollar to be bought.” The yen advanced to 124.82 per euro, the strongest since April 28, before trading at 125.47 in Tokyo and compared with 125.62 yesterday in New York. The dollar climbed as high as $1.3913 against the European currency, the highest level since July 14, before trading at $1.3941. The retreat from risk hurt the Korean won, which fell as much as 0.7 percent to 1,161.70 per dollar as concern China will curb loans and Greece struggle to pay its debt prompted investors to favor safer bets than emerging-market assets. Investors pulled $608.5 million from funds investing in developing nations’ shares in the week ended Jan. 27, the first outflows in 12 weeks, according to Cambridge, Massachusetts-based research firm EPFR Global. Australian Dollar Australia’s dollar slid 0.2 percent to 89.29 cents, as prices for commodities, which make up more than 50 percent of the nation’s exports, dropped. Copper for three-month delivery has plunged 6.1 percent this week on the London Metal Exchange. The euro slumped against 13 of its 16 most-traded counterparts as the cost to protect Greece’s bonds from default climbed. Prime Minister George Papandreou said the country doesn’t need to borrow from European nations. The nation’s government bonds are the world’s worst performers in January, losing 4.19 percent in local currency terms and extending their decline over the past three months to 10 percent, Bloomberg/EFFAS indexes show. The Markit iTraxx Asia index of 50 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan rose 4 basis points to 108.5 basis points, Citigroup Inc. prices show. The index is set to record its ninth daily increase in the past 10 trading days and is at the highest level since Dec. 2, prices from CMA DataVision in New York show. To contact the reporters on this story: James Poole in Singapore on jpoole4@Bloomberg.net Satoshi Kawano in Tokyo skawano1@bloomberg.net .

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Japan Production Rises, Unemployment Falls as BOJ Highlights Yen Concern

January 28, 2010

By Aki Ito and Keiko Ujikane Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — Japan’s industrial production rose and unemployment rate fell in December, signaling a continued recovery, while central bankers considered the threat to the economy from exchange rates, reports showed today. Factory output increased 2.2 percent from the previous month, less than economists had projected, Trade Ministry figures showed today in Tokyo. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.1 percent from 5.2 percent, according to a separate release. While the gains in production and jobs may reduce the danger of a return to recession, declines in consumer prices and an appreciating yen are forcing policy makers to remain open to further stimulus. Bank of Japan officials highlighted concern that the yen’s rise to a 14-year high would undermine business sentiment, minutes of their meetings last month showed today. “This confirms that the worst is over,” said Masamichi Adachi , senior economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo. “But these are very, very small improvements, and the jobs recovery ahead is going to be extremely slow, too.” Bond futures rose, and headed for a three-week advance, as the evidence of continued deflation underpinned demand for the relative safety of government debt. Yields on benchmark 10-year bonds fell to 1.305 percent, matching the lowest level since Jan. 4, at Japan Bond Trading Co. The yen rose 0.3 percent to 89.66 per dollar. A separate government report today showed household spending rose 2.1 percent in December from a year before, more than forecast and capping a fifth straight advance. The figures contrasted with data earlier this week showing retail sales tumbled 0.3 percent from a year ago. More Work The economy added 130,000 jobs in December, the biggest increase in four months. People found more work in medical, welfare and education sectors, while there were fewer jobs and manufacturing and retail industries, according to unadjusted figures in the report. “Unemployment has improved a little bit but I don’t think we can be optimistic at all because the number is still more than 5 percent,” Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama told reporters today in Tokyo. “The situation remains where many people want to work but cannot find a job.” Japan’s Diet yesterday approved a 7.2 trillion yen ($80 billion) economic package aimed at bolstering the recovery from the nation’s worst postwar recession. “At least the worst is over,” said Yoshiki Shinke , senior economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. “But I’m concerned unemployment is going to stay stuck at this high level for some time.” Cutting Staff Some companies are still slashing jobs to rein in costs. Promise Co. , Japan’s second-largest consumer lender, said yesterday it will cut 1,600 staff, or a third of its workforce, by the end of March 2011. The Tokyo-based company’s net income slumped 23 percent in the six months ended Sept. 30. Japan Airlines Corp. , which filed for bankruptcy this month, will slash about 15,700 jobs by the end of March 2013. The job-to-applicant ratio rose for a fourth month to 0.46, meaning there are 46 positions for every 100 candidates, the Labor Ministry said today. The same report showed there were 87 newly advertised jobs in December for every 100 people who started looking for work that month, the most since January. Economists regard the gauge as a leading indicator of employment. Exports rose for the first time in 15 months in December, fueling production gains and may also be encouraging companies to increase overtime or hiring. Toyota Motor Corp. and Sumitomo Pipe & Tube Co. are among companies increasing production to meet growing demand in China. Toyota, Nissan Motor Co. and Honda Motor Co. increased global production in December as automobile demand surged in China and U.S. sales recovered. Output at Toyota rose 33 percent from a year earlier, while Honda increased production 3.4 percent and Nissan’s surged 54 percent. The manufacturers plan to increase production 1.3 percent this month and 0.3 percent in February, the government said today. To contact the reporter on this story: Aki Ito in Tokyo at aito16@bloomberg.net ; Keiko Ujikane in Tokyo at kujikane@bloomberg.net

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NeuralIQ Government Services Names Bill Stacia Operations Director

January 28, 2010

Former Naval Officer to Direct Operations at Cyber Intelligence Company

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Intrawest to sell Canada’s Panorama ski resort

January 28, 2010

VANCOUVER (Reuters) – Canadian ski resort operator Intrawest, which is trying to refinance its debt, said on Thursday it has agreed to sell its Panorama Mountain ski resort in eastern British Columbia to a group of local businessmen. The deal does not

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Wells Fargo Hedges Misbehave at Just Right Time: Jonathan Weil

January 28, 2010

Commentary by Jonathan Weil Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — A strange thing happened last quarter at Wells Fargo & Co. A bunch of derivatives that were supposed to act as hedges on other assets seemed to go berserk. The good news for Wells shareholders is that the oddly behaving derivatives boosted the bank’s fourth-quarter earnings. There’s more to the story, though. The windfall might be a sign that Wells executives aren’t so great at judging some of the company’s risks, meaning there may be more risk than they think. The combined gains on the derivatives — which Wells calls “economic hedges” — and the assets they purportedly were hedging accounted for almost half of Wells’s $4 billion of pretax profit last quarter. That’s a lot of low-quality earnings. About $1.1 billion came from writing up the value of mortgage-servicing rights through changes to inputs in the mathematical models Wells uses to estimate their worth. Another $830 million came from gains on the derivatives that supposedly were hedging this portion of the servicing rights’ value. That’s right: The hedges and hedged items both went up. This scenario should have been as likely as both sides of a see- saw rising at the same time. Nothing quite like this had happened before at Wells, at least not to this magnitude. Indeed, while Wells may refer to the derivatives as hedges, they don’t qualify for hedge accounting under the Financial Accounting Standards Board’s rules, which is why Wells has to use the weasel word “economic” in the label. Airy Assets Mortgage-servicing rights are intangible assets that consist of rights to receive fees from third parties in exchange for doing things like collecting and forwarding monthly payments from homeowners. Unlike other intangibles, such as goodwill or trademarks, companies have the option under the accounting rules of marking them at their fair market values on a quarterly basis, and then running the changes in value through their earnings. Wells’s latest balance sheet showed $16 billion of mortgage-servicing rights that the company was carrying at fair value as of Dec. 31. The tricky part is that such assets are notoriously difficult to value. In accounting parlance, the gains on the mortgage-servicing rights were of the Level 3 variety. In layman’s terms, that means they can be pretty much whatever management wants them to be. Under the FASB’s rules , Level 1 means the value for a given asset comes from quoted prices in actively traded markets, known as mark-to-market. Level 2, or mark-to-model, means the value is measured using “observable inputs,” such as recent transaction prices for similar items where market quotes aren’t available. Make Believe Then there’s Level 3. This means a company measures the fair value of an asset using one or more “unobservable inputs,” or, as I call it, mark-to-make-believe. Companies can’t actually see the changes in value. Yet they get to book them through earnings anyway, based on management’s own subjective assumptions. The last time I took a close look at this subject for a column on Wells was in August 2007, after the company reported quarterly earnings that got a huge boost from Level 3 gains on its servicing rights. Back then Wells had reported a $2 billion gain, or more than half its pretax profits, from changes to inputs in its servicing rights’ valuation models. However, the company said I would be wrong to make comparisons between the size of its Level 3 gains and its overall profits. Up and Down Its argument: Doing so would ignore the effect that rising interest rates at the time had on the values of both the servicing rights (which went up) and the corresponding derivatives Wells said it was using as economic hedges (which went down). The derivatives, which generally fall into the Level 1 and Level 2 camps, had declined by about $2.2 billion. I wrote the column anyway, expressing skepticism that these derivatives were hedges in any real sense. It turns out I probably wasn’t skeptical enough. Wells’s spin on the latest results is that its hedges worked. On the company’s Jan. 20 earnings call, Wells’s chief financial officer, Howard Atkins , explained the gains by saying “hedging results in the mortgage business were strong” and “could remain relatively high as long as short-term rates remain low and the hedge performs effectively.” He added that Wells manages its mortgage business “very holistically” and that “actual hedge results in any quarter of course will reflect how much of the servicing asset we hedge and the effectiveness of the particular instruments we use to hedge.” Not Telling Similarly, in its earnings release, Wells said the $1.9 billion of gains largely reflected “the continuation of strong carry income and effective hedge performance.” What’s carry income? Actually, it doesn’t really matter, because Wells declined to disclose how much it was. And “effective” hedge performance? Give me a break. Remember, the gains on the derivatives were almost as large as the gains on the items they were supposed to be hedging. For all we know, there could come a time when Wells’s derivatives misbehave at the same time the market values of the mortgage-servicing rights plunge. That would mean a double hit to earnings, rather than a windfall. Oh, but what are the odds of that happening, since Wells seems to have it all figured out? Meantime, one step in the right direction would be for Wells to stop calling these things hedges, economic or otherwise. This bank’s derivatives seem to have a mind of their own. ( Jonathan Weil is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.) Click on “Send Comment” in the sidebar display to send a letter to the editor. To contact the writer of this column: Jonathan Weil in New York at

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U.S. May Lift Export Limits for Some Goods With Military Uses, Locke Says

January 28, 2010

By Mark Drajem Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. may remove restrictions on exports of goods with potential military applications when such technologies are already available worldwide, Commerce Secretary Gary Locke said today. The Obama administration is looking at how to reduce the burden on exporters of the limits, Locke said. “We have too many controls on items readily available around the world,” Locke told a meeting of the U.S.-China Business Council in Washington. “For us to restrict companies from sending those around the world, does it hurt us?” The export-control rules, administered by the Commerce and State departments, are intended to keep so-called dual-use technologies such as computer encryption software and aerospace parts out of the hands of U.S. adversaries. The rules may have cut exports by as much as $100 billion, according to an estimate from the National Association of Manufacturers . Allowing the sale of products that are already manufactured in other nations would help makers of software, machine tools and basic encryption technology, Catherine Robinson , associate director for trade at the Washington-based industry group, said in an interview. The US-China Business Council is a nonprofit organization of about 220 U.S. companies that do business with China, according to its Web site. Officials from the administration briefed lawmakers yesterday on the review of the export-control rules, Locke said. “We need to have some commonsense reorientation,” he said. To contact the reporters on this story: Mark Drajem in Washington at mdrajem@bloomberg.net ;

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Bernanke Confirmed by Senate for Second Term as Fed Chairman in 70-30 Vote

January 28, 2010

By Craig Torres and Joshua Zumbrun Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — Ben S. Bernanke was confirmed by the U.S. Senate today for a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve. The Senate voted 70 to 30 to confirm the 56-year-old former Princeton University professor. Bernanke overcame opposition from lawmakers who said he failed to head off the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and then overstepped his authority by participating in rescues of firms including New York-based insurer American International Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. “If you’re the scorekeeper of our recovery, it looks like it can be summarized in the two-word phrase: Banks win,” said Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island. Supporters, including some who criticized his record on bank supervision, credited Bernanke with averting a deeper recession by slashing interest rates and pumping $1 trillion into the economy. “Nobody was more important in preventing the collapse of the financial system and rescuing the economy from what looked like imminent freefall than Chairman Bernanke,” said Senator Charles Schumer , a Democrat from New York. Rejecting Bernanke would “exacerbate economic uncertainty in an economy that needs confidence and stability, not volatility,” said Senator Robert Menendez , a Democrat from New Jersey. During a second term, the former Princeton University economics professor would need to head off efforts by lawmakers to lift a ban on congressional audits of monetary policy and strip the Fed of bank supervisory powers, said J. Alfred Broaddus Jr ., former president of the Richmond Fed. Monetary Expansion Bernanke would also need to begin reversing a record monetary expansion without undercutting the economic recovery, Broaddus said. “If he moves prematurely, the risk is that the recovery, already pretty fragile, becomes damaged,” Broaddus said. “If he waits too long, the risk is that inflation expectations could build so you have an inflation problem all of a sudden.” Bernanke has increased government backstops to banks and other firms and used the Fed’s balance sheet to revive credit, including through the purchase of $1.25 trillion in mortgage- backed securities. The Fed will begin exiting the emergency programs this quarter, winding down a balance sheet that has grown to $2.23 trillion from $880 billion two years ago. Lending Programs Bernanke and his fellow policy makers yesterday affirmed their plan to shut down backstop lending programs next month and to end the purchase of mortgage bonds in March. They also repeated a pledge to keep interest rates near zero for an “extended period.” The cost of a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will rise 30 basis points when the Fed program ends, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists conducted from Jan. 5 to Jan. 12. The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage stood at 4.98 percent in the week ended today, according to Freddie Mac. “I don’t think anybody has faced as big of a challenge as this FOMC faces in the next four years,” said former Atlanta Fed research director Robert Eisenbeis , now chief monetary economist at Cumberland Advisors Inc. in Vineland, New Jersey. “They are going to face continued pressure” on Fed independence, he said. “There are risks all along the way. There are considerable political threats.” Benchmark Rate Policy makers have kept the benchmark lending rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News this month expect the central bank to begin raising rates in the fourth quarter, according to the median estimate. Draft legislation in the Senate would strip the Fed of bank oversight authority and consolidate supervision in a single agency. Last month, the House approved a proposal by Representative Ron Paul , a Texas Republican, to end a ban on government audits of monetary policy. Schumer today criticized efforts to curb the Fed’s independence, saying: “If you don’t like monetary policy when the Fed does it just wait until the politicians get their hands on it.” Lawmakers have also stepped up inquiries about the Fed’s oversight of New York-based insurer AIG following the central bank’s rescue of the firm. Bernanke sought this month to defuse allegations that the central bank tried to conceal details about the $182.3 billion bailout, inviting the Government Accountability Office to audit the Fed’s involvement and extensions of credit to the insurer. “From monetary policy to regulation, consumer protection, transparency and independence, Chairman Bernanke’s time as Fed chairman has been a failure,” said Senator Jim Bunning , a Republican from Kentucky. To contact the reporter on this story: Craig Torres in Washington at ctorres3@bloomberg.net ; Joshua Zumbrun in Washington at jzumbrun@bloomberg.net

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Chavez Dangles Better Exchange Rate to Companies That Ally With Government

January 28, 2010

By Daniel Cancel Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, offered to give private companies a preferential exchange rate to import goods provided they form joint ventures with his government. Chavez, seeking to boost production to emerge from an economic recession , said firms willing to work with the government can get a rate of 2.6 bolivars per dollar. Companies that don’t align with his administration will import finished goods and raw materials at 4.3 per dollar. “If we create an alliance between the state and private sector the government will import goods at 2.6 per dollar if needed,” Chavez said in comments on state television during a meeting to promote national production. “They say that Chavez wants to expropriate everything. That’s not true.” Chavez, who forced foreign oil firms into joint ventures as minority partners in 2007 and nationalized the cement, steel and utilities industries, is seeking to boost the state’s role in the economy. Venezuela’s government, which is able to import all goods at 2.6 per dollar, created a line of socialist retailers to compete with private companies. Chavez weakened the bolivar as much as 50 percent on Jan. 8 in the first devaluation since 2005, creating a multi-tiered exchange system. He’s also selling dollars from central bank reserves for the first time in six years in what Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Barclays Plc say is a futile bid to shore up the bolivar in unregulated trading. The president said that he’d like to form a joint venture with Ron Santa Teresa , one of the country’s main exporters of rum, adding the firm should remove the word rum from its name. Companies including Colgate-Palmolive Co. , the world’s largest toothpaste maker, and bleach maker Clorox Co. said they expect Venezuelan currency-related losses from the devaluation. To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Cancel in Caracas at dcancel@bloomberg.net .

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University Borrowing Soars 54% as Interest Rates Fall, Endowments Shrink

January 28, 2010

By Gillian Wee Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — U.S. universities boosted their long-term debt by 54 percent in the year ended June 30, as the economic crisis forced them to borrow to offset record losses in their endowments. Universities, on average, had $167.8 million in debt in the 12 months ended June 30, with the biggest borrowing done by endowments with more than $1 billion in assets, according to a study released today by the National Association of College and University Business Officers and Commonfund, in Wilton, Connecticut. The money was used to build up emergency cash, refinance existing loans, and fund campus expansions. The study included debt for the first time this year. Harvard University and Princeton University were among the U.S. colleges to sell bonds as the credit crisis forced universities to borrow to replace variable-rate bonds investors no longer wanted and offset drops in their endowments caused by illiquid investments. “The wealthier schools are clearly going to stay in business — they have management and budget challenges that are more difficult than they’re used to,” as debt has risen, said John Nelson , a managing director who studies higher education and not-for- profits at Moody’s Investors Service in New York. “It forces them to be more efficient and make some more difficult budget decisions on the number of staff they have, the amount of salary increases and the scope of capital expansions.” Negative Outlook Moody’s Investors Service maintained its negative outlook on U.S. universities saying endowment losses combined with a 41 percent jump in median outstanding debt at private institutions from fiscal years 2004 to 2008 have reduced their financial resources relative to borrowings. Lower student demand and weaker gift-giving mean universities may continue to be squeezed for cash, Moody’s said in a Jan. 19 report. Universities with the biggest endowments raised their average long-term debt by 62 percent to $1.19 billion in the year ended June 30, from $737 million the previous year, the association said. “The majority of large institutions increased debt in the last year or so,” said Verne Sedlacek , chief executive officer of Commonfund, which manages about $25.5 billion for nonprofit groups. “The over-$1 billion institutions tend to have higher credit ratings and have more access to markets than smaller institutions.” ‘Liquidity Needs’ After credit markets seized up in 2007, central banks worldwide pushed some bank-lending rates to zero in their effort to rescue the financial system. “A big part of the increase in debt was the taxable borrowing by the large private universities which was largely driven by liquidity needs,” Nelson said. “That’s a different kind of borrowing that existed before, which was virtually tax exempt and for capital planning needs.” Harvard raised $2.5 billion in bonds in December 2008 after its endowment plunged and the value of interest-rate swaps tumbled, squeezing the university in Cambridge, Massachusetts, for collateral. This month, after almost doubling its debt burden in three years, Harvard began selling about $400 million of tax-exempt bonds to finance part of a scaled-back campus expansion. Harvard’s endowment dropped to $26 billion in the year ended June 30 as investments declined 27 percent. Plunging Markets Princeton, based in Princeton, in New Jersey raised $1 billion in debt in January 2009, its first taxable issue since 1994. The value of investments in Princeton’s $12.6 billion endowment fell 24 percent in the year ended June 30. Harvard and Princeton are among 53 universities with endowments of $1 billion or more, according to the association. In May, Standard & Poor’s, a New York-based credit rating company, lowered the rating for Dartmouth College’s long-term bonds to AA+ from AAA, the highest level, as the school planned to issue $415 million in new debt. Plunging global capital markets after the September 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Bros. Holdings Inc. caused record endowment losses, layoffs and project delays. School funds lost an average of 19 percent in the year ended June 2009, according to today’s study, which surveyed 842 universities. That’s the biggest loss since 1974, when endowments declined about 12 percent, according to Commonfund and the university-officers association. Princeton said this week it will charge 3.3 percent more for undergraduate tuition, room, board and some fees in the next school year, an increase exceeding inflation during the worst U.S. recession in 70 years. Risky Investments Senator Charles Grassley , an Iowa Republican who has been examining finances at universities, said yesterday in a statement that universities shouldn’t use endowment declines as an excuse “to raise tuition or freeze student aid.” “Many of them relied on some risky investments, like hedge funds, to get big gains in recent years, and now those strategies are causing losses,” Grassley said. “Students shouldn’t bear the brunt of colleges’ easy-come, easy-go investment strategy.” Worst-Performing Last year, only fixed income and short-term securities and cash generated gains, of 3 percent and 0.8 percent respectively, the study showed. International equities were the worst- performing asset class, losing 28 percent, followed by U.S. stock declines of 26 percent, while alternative strategies dropped 18 percent. Funds with more than $1 billion in assets, of which 61 percent was allocated to alternative strategies, lost the most last year, with 21 percent average declines, according to the report. Endowments of less than $25 million had the smallest losses, an average of 17 percent, as they benefited from owning more bonds and U.S. stocks and fewer hedge funds and less private equity, according to the research. Endowments gained an average of 4 percent annually in the decade ended June 30, with the largest funds of more than $1 billion performing the best, the study shows. Those funds jumped by 6.1 percent each year, while their smaller peers had average increases of 3.4 percent to 4.3 percent each year. To contact the reporter on this story: Gillian Wee in New York at gwee3@bloomberg.net .

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BNY Mellon Said to Be in Talks to Acquire PNC Unit for Up to $2.5 Billion

January 28, 2010

By Sree Bhaktavatsalam Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — Bank of New York Mellon Corp. is in talks to buy PNC Financial Services Group Inc.’s global investment-servicing unit for as much as $2.5 billion, according to a person familiar with the matter. A final agreement hasn’t been reached, said the person, who declined to be identified. The talks were reported earlier today by the Wall Street Journal. To contact the reporter on this story: Sree Bhaktavatsalam in Boston at sbhaktavatsa@bloomberg.net

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Stocks Fall as Dollar, Treasuries Gain; Greek Bonds Slide for a Third Day

January 28, 2010

By Michael P. Regan and Rita Nazareth Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks slid and European shares reversed gains, while the dollar and shorter-term Treasuries rose, as Qualcomm Inc.’s forecast disappointed investors and speculation of a Greece bailout was quelled. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.8 percent, wiping out yesterday’s gain and sending the gauge below its lowest close since November, while Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index reversed a 1.4 percent rally and fell 1.1 percent at 1:54 p.m. in New York. The Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against six major counterparts, added 0.3 percent for a third day of gains. Treasury two-year notes rose, sending their yield down five basis points. Copper fell 3 percent, a third straight drop. Technology shares led U.S. equities lower as Qualcomm, the largest maker of mobile-phone chips, said a “subdued” economic recovery led to its reduced forecast. Greek bonds slid a third day, sending yields on 10-year debt above 7 percent, and costs to protect against default rose to a record as investors doubted the nation will be able to avoid a European Union bailout. “The global economy is still very fragile,” said Stanley Nabi , New York-based vice chairman of Silvercrest Asset Management Group, which manages $8.5 billion. “On the corporate side, the earnings picture is mixed. As far as Greece is concerned, it is a flag of caution. What if Greece says I can’t pay my obligations? Not that they’re going to do that. If they say that, forget about the euro zone.” Global Losing Streak The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations’ stocks lost 0.9 percent for a seventh day of declines, the longest streak in 11 months. The euro weakened against 12 of 16 major currencies, sliding 1 percent versus the South Korean won and 0.3 percent against the U.S. dollar. Global equities and U.S. index futures advanced before the open of exchanges in New York. President Barack Obama said in his State of the Union address last night that “the worst of the storm has passed” and he wasn’t interested in “punishing banks.” Obama’s plan to end proprietary trading and hedge-fund investments at banks, coupled with uncertainty over Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke ’s confirmation for another term and China’s moves to curb lending, contributed to a 5.1 percent slide in the S&P 500 in the final three days of last week. That was the biggest three-day tumble since the index plunged to a 12-year low in March. U.S. stocks erased gains from a late-day rally yesterday triggered when Fed policy makers upgraded their economic outlook and pledged to keep interest rates at a record low for an “extended period,” helping offset investor concern this week that China is withdrawing stimulus. ‘Panned By Bloggers’ Apple Inc. slid as much as 4.4 percent to help lead today’s decline in technology stocks, a day after the company introduced its iPad tablet computer. “Apple’s iPad is getting panned by bloggers all over the place,” said Peter Misek , a Toronto-based analyst at Cannacord Adams. “They cite the lack of multitasking, the lack of Verizon, the lack of flash support and the name. We view much of the criticism as unfair and near-term as updates will solve nearly all of their concerns. We would use extreme weakness as a buying opportunity.” Britain’s FTSE 100 Index slumped 1.4 percent to below its lowest close in almost three months, extending declines after Standard & Poor’s said the nation’s lenders are no longer among the most “low-risk” banking systems. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc erased a 3.9 percent advance and fell 1.3 percent. Greek Bonds Greek bonds extended losses amid concern the government will struggle to narrow a budget deficit of almost 13 percent of GDP last year, the highest in the European Union. The 10-year note yield rose 41 basis points to a 10-year high of 7.16 percent, adding to yesterday’s 51-basis point surge. The yield premium investors demand to hold the Greek securities instead of benchmark German bunds increased to 3.96 percentage points. That’s near the highest premium since October 1998, near the time when hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP collapsed amid risky bets on bond spreads. The German and French governments denied a report in the newspaper Le Monde that European Union member states are examining ways to provide financial assistance to Greece. “We need no bilateral loan,” Prime Minister George Papandreou told reporters in Davos, Switzerland, today. “We never asked for it.” Copper for delivery in three months fell 3.3 percent to $3.117 a pound in New York on concern that demand may wane in China. Aluminum slumped 3.3 percent in London, while lead and tin retreated at least 1.7 percent. Gold for immediate delivery fluctuated. To contact the reporters on this story: Michael P. Regan in New York at mregan12@bloomberg.net ; Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net .

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Amazon.com Profit, Sales Exceed Analysts’ Estimates on Holiday Discounts

January 28, 2010

By Joseph Galante Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — Amazon.com Inc. reported profit that beat analysts’ estimates as shoppers took advantage of holiday discounts and free shipping. The stock fell after the company forecast operating income that missed some predictions. Net income rose to $384 million, or 85 cents a share, from $225 million, or 52 cents, a year earlier, the Seattle-based company said today in a statement. The company forecast first- quarter operating income of $275 million to $365 million. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had estimated $341.3 million. Amazon.com, whose shares more than doubled last year, faces skepticism from some investors who say the company can’t sustain its growth, said Michael Souers , an equity analyst at Standard & Poor’s in New York. The company will also compete with Apple Inc.’s iPad, which will face off with the Kindle. “The shares are priced for perfection,” Souers said. Amazon.com fell 7 percent to $117.27 in extended trading after closing at $126.03 today in Nasdaq Stock Market trading . Fourth-quarter sales rose to $9.52 billion. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimated 72 cents a share in profit on $9.04 billion in revenue. Sales in the first quarter will be between $6.45 billion and $7 billion, Amazon.com said. That compares to $6.42 billion predicted by analysts. Checkout Process Amazon.com has simplified its checkout process to lure customers to make purchases, expanded a service that delivers products without frustrating packaging, and expanded free shipping to gain market share. More third-party sellers have also listed items on the site, boosting Amazon.com’s profitability, according to Janney Montgomery Scott. Apple Inc. and Sony Corp. are creating new competition for Amazon.com’s Kindle. Apple’s iPad, which can display books, surf the Web and show video, starts at $499. Sony introduced a touch- screen reader in August for $299. By the end of 2011, the iPad will be almost even with sales of the Kindle, which has about 60 percent of the market, according to Forrester. “Apple could do in a year what it took two years for Amazon to do with the Kindle,” said James McQuivey , an analyst at Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Forrester. Online retail spending for the November-December holiday season rose 4 percent to $29.1 billion from a year earlier, according to Reston, Virginia-based research firm ComScore Inc. That contrasts with a 1.1 percent gain in total retail holiday sales, according to the National Retail Federation. Forrester predicts that online sales in the U.S. will expand 13 percent this year and 10 percent in 2011. To contact the reporter on this story: Joseph Galante in San Francisco at jgalante3@bloomberg.net

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Microsoft Profit Beats Estimates on Release of Windows 7 Operating System

January 28, 2010

By Dina Bass Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — Microsoft Corp. , the world’s largest software maker, reported second-quarter profit that topped analysts’ estimates after Windows 7 spurred the first sales increase in a year. Second-quarter net income rose 60 percent to $6.66 billion, or 74 cents a share, beating the 59-cent average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Revenue climbed 14 percent to $19 billion, the company said today in a statement. Personal-computer buyers stepped up orders last quarter as the economy recovered and Microsoft released a new version of Windows. Sales of U.S. PCs running Windows rose about 50 percent over the holiday season, the company said earlier this month, citing data from NPD Group Inc. Microsoft is counting on Windows 7 to trigger a surge of upgrades by consumers and businesses. “Microsoft is in a great position,” sent Brent Thill , an analyst at UBS AG in San Francisco, who recommends buying the shares. “They have one of the best product cycles in the last five years, maybe 10, and it spans across their three biggest divisions.” Microsoft , based in Redmond, Washington, fell 51 cents to $29.16 at 4 p.m. New York time on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The stock climbed 19 percent last quarter, exceeding the 5.5 percent gain by the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index . Today’s earnings report is the first under Chief Financial Officer Peter Klein , who was named to the post in November. Second-quarter sales included $1.71 billion in deferred revenue from previous quarters. Analysts projected total sales of $17.9 billion for the period, which ended Dec. 31. A year earlier, net income was $4.17 billion, or 47 cents a share, on sales of $16.6 billion. No Forecast Microsoft, which stopped giving earnings forecasts in January 2009, didn’t give a specific outlook for profit and sales. Microsoft reiterated an October prediction that it will spend as much as $26.5 billion on operating expenses this fiscal year. PC shipments rose 15 percent worldwide last quarter, according to Framingham, Massachusetts-based IDC, which had predicted 11 percent growth. U.S. shipments were even more surprising. They jumped 24 percent, four times the rate that IDC had projected. Microsoft ’s Windows runs more than 90 percent of the world’s PCs. Many customers skipped the last version of the software, called Vista, raising speculation that buyers will upgrade this time around. Microsoft ’s Bing search engine, released in June, has increased its market share by 2.7 percentage points, according to research firm ComScore Inc. Microsoft had 10.7 percent of the U.S. search market in December, compared with 65.7 percent for Google Inc. and 17.3 percent for Yahoo! Inc. , according to ComScore. To contact the reporter on this story: Dina Bass in Seattle at dbass2@bloomberg.net

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Robert Teitelman: Raising the curtain on Paulson’s ‘On the Brink’

January 28, 2010

On Monday Henry Paulson’s book “On the Brink” will be officially published. (For true devotees, the Kindle version is available at 12:01 a.m. on Feb. 1, making this a kind of Harry Potter-like event. Ah, magic.) Now, even as the flood tide of books about every conceivable aspect of the crisis threatens to wash over the bulkhead of our sanity, Paulson’s retelling is the one we’ve been waiting for. After all, he’s the only principal player in the panic phase of the financial crisis that has so far chosen to put his thoughts down on paper, or e-ink, as opposed to defensively parrying hostile questions from congressmen, or whispering recollections to journalists. This may not produce either a page-turner or a host of revelations. Indeed, given Paulson’s ambivalence about opening up to the public, and the obvious complexities of the man, it would be surprising if he did. Here’s what I fully expect him to say. TARP was a swell idea that saved the world. He had no choice but to let Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. go (moral hazard and all that). He did not favor Goldman, Sachs & Co. (NYSE:GS), except that a failure of that firm would mean the end of civilization as we know it. Ben Bernanke and Timothy Geithner acted heroically under his direction. Everybody was really tired. You had to be there to understand why Geithner didn’t ask Goldman Sachs for a haircut on the American International Group Inc. (NYSE:AIG) collateral. He was always really tired. Free markets are best. Regulation is important but let’s not stifle innovation, entrepreneurialism, etc. Bush was a great guy, who let me do my thing. That said, there are topics I hope he tackles, but certainly don’t know if he will. First, very few saw the bubble building. But very few had a perch like the Treasury secretary. When did he realize this was going to be more than just a cyclical hiccup? Did he ever really ponder either the break between real estate prices and any sense of underlying value? Did he worry whether the short-term leverage that kept Wall Street humming would last forever? Was he concerned about credit default swaps before they slapped him in the face? Second, what was he thinking and doing between the fall of Bear Stearns Cos. and the collapse of Lehman? There are several parts to this. What was his relationship to Dick Fuld at Lehman and what was his evaluation of Fuld’s ability to save that firm? Did he think he was out of control? A number of accounts describe Paulson urging Fuld to sell the firm during the summer of 2008, but how complete a view did he have of Lehman’s difficulties — and how early? Why didn’t Treasury, or the Federal Reserve, develop a better grasp of Lehman’s true interconnectivity in those months between Bear and Lehman? Why didn’t someone map out the consequences of a Lehman bankruptcy on, say, credit default swaps or the money markets? Was that not possible? And if that’s the case, isn’t that a reason to limit certain risks going forward? In short, how could he and Bernanke say before the Lehman failure that counterparties had had enough time to disengage from Lehman? The third topic involves the dynamic between major players — or the lack of dynamic. This is an area that the major “you-were-there” books on the crisis provide only sketchy information. What was the relationship between Bernanke and Paulson from Bear onwards? Was Bernanke (and his man Geithner in New York) simply compliant, or was there a steady interchange of differences and debate? And if so, on what subjects? Paulson, by all accounts, made the sudden decision to force a low-ball bid on Bear. True, and how’s he feel about that now? And Paulson often gets credit (or blame) for the decision to let Lehman go. (Both Bernanke and Paulson’s explanation for the Lehman decision has shifted over time, which could use some explaining.) At any time before the TARP, was Paulson able to think ahead systemically? Did he recognize that he was leaving the Fed out on a long limb with the Bear rescue, and all but inviting the kind of politicization that is now occurring? Did Bernanke raise objections to, say, opening the discount window to Wall Street or accepting Goldman and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) as bank holding companies, after rejecting Lehman? And what about the Securities and Exchange Commission, which seemed to have effectively no role in anything. What was that all about? Was Christopher Cox really that lame — and what does that say about the Bush administration, deregulation or a reformed regulatory system? Fourth, can Paulson discuss what may have been his greatest weakness throughout the crisis, his inability to deal effectively with the public and with the toxic politics released by the crisis and recession? Did he realize at the time how his tendency to suddenly change his mind — save Bear, let Lehman go, use the TARP to buy back assets, use it to inject capital — steadily undermined his standing with a frightened public and poisoned his relations with Congress? Did he foresee the damage he was doing to himself, the rescue and Goldman Sachs by continually hiring former Goldmanites for positions of power? Finally, how does he feel about the three decades or so of financial deregulatin now? How would he reform the financial system, particularly in regard to too-big-to-fail and moral hazard? And where does he think Goldman fits into a more prudent financial system? Personally, it often seems to me that Paulson, Bernanke and Geithner have been unduly castigated for aspects of the bailout. In those few months, these men performed great feats under difficult conditions. That said there are major issues that only they, who stood at the center of the storm, can tell us. How did they miss it? Why weren’t they more prepared when the storm broke, particularly in the period between Bear and Lehman? There is not a doubt in the world that these men — these three in particular — were smart, deeply experienced in fortuitous ways (Bernanke on the Great Depression, Geithner with his Japan and Asia crisis background, Paulson running the pre-eminent investment bank in the world) and working as hard as they could. But what kind of guarantee is that for future crises? And that’s the real point here. We should not have to take that risk again. The real lessons from this experience should help us to avoid coming so close to the brink again. We’ll see if Paulson helps this process. – Robert Teitelman Robert Teitelman is editor in chief of The Deal.

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Bob Samuels: How America’s Universities Became Hedge Funds

January 28, 2010

In August 2009, just one month after the state of California cut over a billion dollars from its higher education budget, the University of California (UC) turned around and lent the state $200 million. When journalists asked the UC president, Mark Yudof, how the university could lend millions of dollars to the state, while the school was raising student fees (tuition), furloughing employees, canceling classes, and laying off teachers, Yudof responded that when the university lends money to the state, it turns a profit, but when it spends money on salaries for teachers, the money is lost. Welcome to the university as hedge fund world. In this strange new world, institutions of higher learning care more about interest rates than educational quality. In fact, Harvard cared so much about reducing the cost of borrowing money that it made several expensive credit default swaps, which resulted in a loss of hundreds of millions of dollars and the halting of an ambitious expansion plan. Not only did Harvard gamble on interest rates to support future construction plans, but it moved much of its endowment into high risk investments, and the result is that the world’s wealthiest education institution is now claiming poverty. Risky Businesses Like Harvard, the University of California was seduced by the Yale endowment manager, David Swenson, who inspired universities throughout the country to shift their investments from secure bonds and treasury notes to volatile equities and commodities. At first, schools were showing high rates of return in their investment and pension portfolios, but when these investments turned south, the universities lost billions of dollars of savings. In fact, the UC lost over $23 billion dollars in its combined pension and endowment funds, and this loss will take years to recover. Of course, universities will say that everyone lost money in the global financial meltdown, but schools like Harvard, Yale, and the University California lost so much more than everyone else because they followed Swensen’s model of shifting funds into supposedly low-risk, high-yield assets. Moreover, these schools were pushed to gamble big in their investments in order to keep up with their expensive spending habits. For the fact of the matter is that when these universities were getting double-digit returns on their investments, they continued to jack up tuition, borrow more money, and increase compensation to the top earners, but now that bottom has fallen out of their investments, they are left with no choice but to eliminate the non-tenured faculty who currently teach a majority of the students. Since it is very difficult to lay off tenured faculty, and administrators are resistant to get rid of other administrators, the only thing left to cut is the instructors without tenure, and this means courses will be cancelled and class sizes will be expanded. In short, students will be paying more and getting less because big bets did not pay off. To understand how both public and private research universities have gotten themselves into this mess, one needs to understand five inter-related factors: the state de-funding of public education, the emphasis on research over instruction, the move to high-risk investments, the development of a free market academic labor system, and the marketing of college admissions. These different forces have combined to turn universities into corporations centered on pleasing bond raters in order to get lower interest rates so that they can borrow more money to fund their unending expansion and escalating expenses. The Defunding of Higher Ed Starting in 1980, as part of the Reagan revolution and the desire to cut the taxes of the wealthiest Americans, states began to reduce their funding for public universities. In order to counter this loss of funds, public research universities had to look for other revenue streams, and not only did they raise tuition to make up for the reduction of state support, but they also expanded the research parts of their budget. This move to find new revenue through research activities was enabled in 1980 by the passage of the Bayh-Dole Act, which allowed universities for the first time to buy and sell research produced at federally funded labs. Not only did this law push universities to seek profits by selling the results of their research, but the move to increase research triggered a major expansion of administration and staff. It turns out that in order to perform high-level research, schools need to hire an army of lawyers, accountants, regulators, and staff. After all, they have to have administrators and staff to run compliance offices, regulate research centers, oversee venture capital enterprises, and to administer fund-raising activities. They also need administrators to watch over the other administrators, and then they need staff to collect the information so that administrators can watch over other administrators, and of course, these institutions need computer staff to compile the data to give to the staff so they can give it to the administrator who gives it to another administrator, and once one gets to this level of complication, one needs a whole set of other people to see if everyone is following the state and federal guidelines, and the expansion continues to infinity. A result then of the growing emphasis on research is that the number of administrators has expanded, while the number of faculty has remained flat. For instance, during the last decade, the number of administrators in the UC system has doubled, while the number of faculty has increased 25%; in fact, nationally, there is now one higher ed administrator for every faculty member. Moreover, many administrators pull in huge salaries, and they often bring with them a purely corporate mentality that is in conflict with the stated missions of educational institutions. Pleasing the Bond Raters To support the expansion of research and the increased cost of bureaucracy, universities have to borrow huge sums of money. For example, during its recent financial crisis, the University of California applied for over a billion dollars for construction bonds, and almost all of this debt will go to build new research facilities. In response to these bond applications, Moody’s gave the UC system a high bond rating, which will result in low interest rates, further fueling more borrowing. Moreover, as UC Santa Cruz Professor Bob Meister has revealed, the UC is using student fees and tuition as collateral for its construction bonds. In this modified credit swap, students are forced to take out subprime students loans, often charging 6% interest, so that the university can borrow money at a reduced rate. Not only do the bond raters help to determine the cost of borrowing, but they also tell universities what they should do in order to attain a clean bill of fiscal health. For instance, Moody’s slipped into its bond rating for the UC system, the need for the institution to restrain labor costs, increase tuition, diversify revenue streams, feed the money-making sectors, and resist the further unionization of its employees. Like the IMF or World Bank, the bond raters tie access to credit to the dismantling of the public sector and the adoption of free market fundamentalism. In the case of the UC system, it appears that the President Yudof is taking his marching orders from the bond raters and is doing everything in his expanded powers to feed money into the privatized profitable sectors, while starving the non-revenue generating public areas, like instruction. Yudof’s core values were revealed when he described the fiscal status of the UC system on the PBS News Hour: “Many of our, if I can put it this way, businesses are in good shape. We’re doing very well there. Our hospitals are full, our medical business, our medical research, the patient care?-so we have this core problem, who’s gonna pay the salary of the English Department? We have to have it. Who’s gonna pay it, and Sociology, and the humanities, and that’s where we’re running into trouble.” For many people inside and outside of higher education, Yudof’s statement may seem jarring, but for bond raters, his argument makes perfect sense. From a purely financial perspective, there are profitable ventures and unprofitable ones, and only the areas bringing in money should be nourished. Of course, lately, bond raters have been proven to be questionable experts when it comes to predicting the financial health of institutions, and in the case of judging universities, not only do the raters seem to have the wrong values, but they also have the wrong numbers. In contrast to Yudof’s statement, the reality is that it is the humanities and the social sciences that actually subsidize the research centers and not the other way around. Studies have shown that humanities’ programs often educate most of the undergraduate students, and they do this with relatively inexpensive teachers and low overhead. In fact, most humanities’ departments turn a huge profit that is then distributed to support the supposedly profit-making sectors. Since federal and corporate-sponsored grants often fail to cover the full cost of buildings, administration, labs, staff, maintenance, and utilities, money has to be taken from undergraduates and humanities programs to subsidize the research sectors. Marketing Academic Labor The twin engines of increased debt and an emphasis on research have fueled a third new market force, which is the academic free agent system. In order for universities to remain highly ranked, they feel that they must compete for the best faculty, and the best faculty are often defined by how much other schools are wiling to pay them. In the UC system, for example, there is an official salary scale, but over 85% of the faculty are now off the scale, and this means that many of them have negotiated private deals with a dean. Not only does this system turn everyone into competitive individualists, but it also circumvents the peer review process that is supposed to be at the heart of the modern democratic university. In elite private and public universities, many faculty members search for outside offers from competing institutions every year so that professors can renegotiate their deals, and these deals not only include higher compensation but also less time in the classroom. One of the results of this system is that the more universities pay star professors, the less teaching they do, and the less loyal they are to the institution. In turn, star faculty, administrators, and coaches hold universities hostage by threatening to go to a competitor. This compensation system has gotten so out-of-hand that in 2008, there were over 3,600 employees in the UC system making more than $200,000. Marketing Enrollment Mirroring the free market star economy is the market-based enrollment system. Universities now believe that to get the “best” students, they have to offer the best aid packages, and what has happened is that many top universities have moved much of their financial aid from need to merit. One of the problems with this structure is that merit is often based on SAT scores, and SAT scores have been shown to be heavily correlated with wealth. The end result of switching from a need-based to a merit-based financial aid system is that lower- and middle-class students end up subsidizing the wealthiest students because in order to give the top students large aid packages, the universities have to raise the tuition on everyone else. In his book Tearing Down the Gates, Peter Sacks has shown that not only do SAT scores predict the wealth of the students’ parents, and not the success the students will have in college, but SAT scores also determine a school’s ranking in the all-powerful U.S. News & World Report college guidebook. Therefore, by accepting students with high SAT scores, universities not only increase their rankings, but they also bring in wealthy students who will help build the schools’ endowments in the future. The speculative market-based system that universities use to recruit students is coupled with the way these institutions spend lavishly on new facilities to attract potential enrollees. It seems that universities believe that is easier to please students outside of the classroom rather than inside, so they pour money into new fitness centers, entertainment complexes, sports arenas, restaurants, and shopping malls. Of course, all of these extracurricular activities require expensive new buildings, which require more debt, and more efforts to please the bond raters. The expansion and revenue diversification of American universities has gotten so out of hand that research universities, like UCLA, now spend less than 5% of their total budget on undergraduate instruction. No wonder universities feel free to expand class sizes and hire people off of the street to teach required courses; instruction is just a small part of what these institutions now do, and since there are no accepted methods to judge the quality of undergraduate instruction or learning, there is no incentive for schools to put their resources into educational activities. The lack of educational quality control in higher education results in a continual increase in tuition costs because universities have no incentive to concentrate their efforts and budgets on instruction. Since no one is rating or ranking these schools on what students are learning or how effective the professors are at teaching, these institutions feel free to spend student tuition dollars and state funding on expensive research and bloated bureaucracy. In fact, while most schools insist that students are not paying the full cost of their education, UC Berkeley professor, Charles Schwartz has shown that virtually every university inflates the advertised cost of education so that they can constantly raise tuition and use the added income to support profit-making ventures and risky financial investments. Possible Solutions To make the spending habits of universities more transparent and to make them prioritize undergraduate education, the first thing that has to be done is that the federal government needs to insist on a shared system for assessing instruction at American universities. Rather than basing a school’s reputation on the SAT scores and the high school grade point averages of the incoming students, the new system of assessment should actually look at how much the students are learning in their classes and how effective the teachers are in promoting quality education. It is important to stress that this type of national quality control already exists, but universities refuse to publish the findings of the National Survey of Student Engagement (NSSE) and The Collegiate Learning Assessment (CLA). Instead of using these scientific methods of assessments, schools, students, and parents rely on highly questionable rating guides like The U.S News & World Report. If education, and not just research and SAT scores, became the key to a school’s reputation, these institutions would be forced to put money into instruction, and this process would reverse the current practice of using student tuition dollars to subsidize research and administration. Furthermore, once there is an accepted method for rating the quality of instruction, we can begin to drive down the costs. After all, what often makes tuition go up is that students and taxpayers are forced to fund the escalating salaries of professors and administrators who often have no connection to undergraduate instruction. The next essential change for universities is to admit that some researchers should only research, and some teachers should only teach. Therefore, universities need to establish three types of professors: Teaching Professors, Research Professors, and Hybrid Professors. This model will help to clear up many problems because if we stop forcing all research professors into the classroom, we will be able to allow them to concentrate on what they do best and avoid what they sometimes do in an ineffective manner. In fact, the common practice of states and students paying for expensive research professors to teach ends up driving up the cost of instruction and allows people who have a proven record of being ineffective teachers to continue to lower the quality of instruction. Furthermore, the entire incentive system at research universities privileges research over teaching, and so for many research professors, we should simply make the research priority the rule and get rid of the false myth that research and teaching go hand-and-hand. If we allow researchers to be rewarded for what they do best, we should also provide incentives for teachers to concentrate on instruction. By providing tenure for the people who do most of the teaching at research universities, undergraduate instruction can become an important priority. While some professors may say that by splitting research off from instruction, we are losing the whole point of going to a research university, studies show that the research mission often robs the instructional budget, and there is no proof that a good researcher will make a good teacher; in fact, the opposite is often the case. Once teaching becomes a priority and schools stop robbing their instructional budgets to pay for other things, it will be possible to teach students in small, interactive classes. Moreover, if we create a third class of professors, the hybrids, who would be judged equally for their research and their teaching, we can reward the people who do bring together new knowledge with effective instruction. To help motivate research universities to make some of these changes, parents and students should sue schools for false advertising. The simple fact of the matter is that many universities present false information concerning class size and who really does the teaching at their institutions. Also, schools make inaccurate claims concerning the cost of undergraduate education, and by inflating budgets, tuition is driven up. Universities have to clearly state how they spend their money, and the federal government, which provides financial aid and research dollars to both private and public institutions, should be able to hold these institutions accountable. The government can also step in and stop guidebooks from using false and misleading information. After all, a college education is one of the most important and expensive purchases in a person’s life, and accurate and truthful information should be provided. Finally, the federal government must insist on budget transparency and a careful monitoring of how grants and endowment funds are managed. Currently, Senator Grassley is investigating how the UC medical schools are using NIH grants, and his office is trying to determine how billions of dollars of federal money are being allocated. His staff has insisted on an external audit of the medical schools’ budgets, and so far the senator’s office has been unable to determine if federal grants are being used for their intended use. This lack of budget transparency and clarity shows why we need to force universities to provide clear and reliable information. Without increased regulation and oversight, these institutions will continue to function as volatile hedge funds that ignore their central mission, which is after all instruction and not construction.

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Adam Hanft: The U.S. Government Controls GM; Do They Have the Guts to Go After Toyota?

January 28, 2010

It’s the biggest post-bankruptcy gift GM can have. Toyota’s massive recall of five million cars – nearly half of the total number of cars it sold worldwide in its peak year – could be a turning point in the public’s perception that Japanese cars win the quality Olympics, versus America’s tinny junk. The AP is blunt in its assessment: ” A flood of recalls in the U.S. shows Toyota compromised on quality control in an overzealous drive to cut costs and expand sales during its climb to the top of the world auto market.” Meanwhile, American cars have dramatically improved their quality ratings. The gap between imports and domestics is lower than it’s ever been, and American cars have improved their “initial quality” ratings more than imports, says JD Powers . But perception has lagged, and that continues to be a huge problem for Detroit. The massive Toyota recall is one of those high visibility moments that can be a catalyst for a profound realignment of consumer thinking. GM needs to use the recall and the massive news coverage it’s generated to re-activate the latent but recoverable archetype of “Made in Japan” standing for cheap and unreliable stuff. This is an unprecedented opportunity, a moment for GM to paint a stark contrast between its commitment to making great cars – a new era of American quality – and Toyota’s sloppiness in pursuit of global dominance. Take everything Toyota stands for and turn it upside down and inside out. Remind us that cheapness has a price, and that price can be life-threatening. And use every communication channel in your arsenal to pump this out – advertising, PR, social media, your employees, your dealer network, happy owners. The UAW. This would be smartly opportunistic, given not just the recall, but the mood of the American people. We’re looking for glimmers of American resurgence, and we want our investment in GM to pay off. We want to believe that a smaller, tighter, more quality-obsessed GM is prepared to beat the global, grow-at-any-cost monolith that Toyota has become. The question is, would the GM have the testosterone to do this, and would the U.S. government approve a big, bold, feisty campaign that strikes directly at the business practices of an iconic Japanese company, and could have geopolitical consequences? I can imagine the firestorm this species of government-approved trade warfare would trigger. Prime Minister Hatoyama would be on the phone with Secretary of State Clinton before you could say “accelerator pedal.” After all, this wouldn’t be just a competitive strategy for GM. It would be an effort to bring the perception of Japanese quality tumbling down by seizing this national embarrassment and turning into a broader indictment. The unacknowledged truth is that United States Government has an inherent conflict-of-interest problem. There is an undeniable structural stress between its role as the controlling shareholder in GM, and its global economic needs. So the law of unintended consequences appears once again. The loan guarantees to GM restrict its ability to seize opportunity, and the gift of the recall will remain unopened and unenjoyed.

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Allen Stanford’s Daughter Drops Fight To Keep $1.3M Condo

January 28, 2010

DALLAS — The daughter of jailed Texas businessman R. Allen Stanford has dropped her fight to stay in a $1.3 million Houston condominium, her attorney said Thursday. Randi Stanford’s decision came hours before she was to appear in federal district court to show why she should not be held in contempt for refusing to cooperate with government efforts to sell the 2,800-square-foot home. She will move out by March 31. The condo was a gift from her father, who is accused of leading a $7 billion Ponzi scheme – allegations that he denies. Court-appointed receiver Ralph Janvey plans to sell the condo and direct the proceeds to allegedly defrauded investors. On Wednesday, Janvey filed a declaration from a forensic accountant detailing that most of the $1.3 million purchase price came from the elder Stanford’s personal bank account in Antigua, which is tied to his alleged wrongdoing. Joe Kendall, Randi Stanford’s attorney, said his client put up $20,000 for the condo and that her mother, Susan, put up $50,000. But the deed to the home is held by a limited liability company; its only member is R. Allen Stanford. “That would make selling the property by Randi Stanford very problematic under the current circumstances,” Kendall said. He added that Randi Stanford is working three jobs to support herself. Janvey notified Randi Stanford in March 2009 that he intended to sell her condo. He offered to allow her to continue living there rent-free so long as she maintained it in good order. He also offered to provide three hours notice before showing the unit to prospective buyers and 30 days notice for her to remove her possessions when it was sold. Instead, she declined to cooperate and argued that Janvey’s authority did not extend to the condo. Randi Stanford said she spent more than $113,000 for upkeep since she moved in three years ago. She has not waived her claim to a share of the proceeds from the sale proportionate to her investment in the property, Kendall said. Her father is the subject of a Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit accusing him of promising inflated returns to about 28,000 investors on certificates of deposit at his Antiguan bank. The SEC also accuses him of skimming more than $1 billion to fund his lavish lifestyle. Stanford is jailed in the Houston area on similar criminal charges.

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Marco Trbovich: Obama Skirts the Real Jobs Issue: Industrial Employment

January 28, 2010

A Miller Lite TV commercial currently airing features a young fellow unable to disgorge the word “love” to his adoring female companion. President Obama appeared plagued by a similar inability to say the word “manufacturing” in his State of the Union address, ostensibly designed to exhibit a renewed focus on jobs. Instead of a call for revitalizing manufacturing, we heard of the need for more “production” in pursuit of exports. Coupled with the speech’s unmistakable endorsement of the status quo on trade policy – specific references to South Korea and Colombia that were impossible to miss as affronts to the industrial unions who oppose those deals — the president’s aversion to addressing manufacturing left little doubt that deference to the financialization of the economy continues to trump any hope of reinvigorating industrial employment. The problem of failing to address manufacturing’s decline, let alone forge a national strategy to compete with China for manufacturing preeminence, is that it cheapens the president’s talk about jobs in light of the evidence: • Manufacturing employment has fallen by 2.1 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). • Manufacturing employment dropped to 11.7 million in October of last year, a loss of 5.5 million (32 percent of all manufacturing jobs) since October 2000. • In October 2009, more people were officially unemployed (15.7million) than were working in manufacturing. • Currently, 20 percent of manufacturing and construction workers are unemployed – double the national unemployment rate. The beauty of addressing this issue rather than avoiding it is that it is a problem, like most others, that Obama inherited, as well as being one for which both parties are responsible. The president could as well urge both parties to unite in addressing the future of U.S. manufacturing as condemn their past errors. The other virtue of taking up the manufacturing challenge is that it enjoys great favor with the voting public. In a recent USA Today/Gallup poll, Americans were asked what should be done to create more jobs in the U.S. The number one response was “keep manufacturing jobs in the U.S.” So, why the president’s obvious reticence? There is, first of all, the unmistakable indifference of both parties’ operatives to the lives of people in places like Gary, Indiana, Detroit, Michigan, Youngstown, Ohio and the southern corridor of metropolitan L.A. For Republicans, this is standard operating procedure. For Democrats, allegedly the party of working people, it’s elitism that slouches toward hypocrisy. This is especially true of the current White House, where any blood knowledge of the human damage being done to the citizens of industrial America is unlikely among the Harvard Boy’s Club peopling the inner circle. Indeed, they have been among the bipartisan consensus in Washington that has championed the current trade regime that is hollowing out U.S. manufacturing. Their unstinting allegiance to globalization as currently practiced has been the stalking horse for Wall Street adventurism in foreign markets, where labor is cheap and profit margins are irresistible, a policy front that has led to the financialization of a U.S. economy in which manufacturing’s share of GDP has been cut in half while financial services’ share has doubled. The administration’s only nod to this reversal of fortunes has been to acknowledge the problem exists by issuing a “Framework for Revitalizing American Manufacturing,” largely a potpourri of diverse policy initiatives launched since taking office that was released late in the week shortly before Christmas, timing that suggested greater interest in its obscurity than its recommendations. The administration’s preferred approach is to focus on the emerging clean energy sector, laudable in its own right, but unlikely to overtake the jump start already enjoyed by China and Germany, unless a commitment is made to protect the development of renewable component manufacturing as these countries have. As Northeastern University professor Joan Fitzgerald avers in her soon-to-be published book, Emerald Cities: Urban Sustainability and Economic Development : “Absent industrial policies to develop these new industries, the desire to attract green businesses is just the latest variant on a familiar zero-sum game of smokestack chasing … If the United States wants to get serious about capturing or recapturing clean energy production such as wind and solar…we have to get over our aversion to industrial policy.” Getting over that aversion would begin with abandoning the weak insistence that our foreign trading partners start “playing by the rules,” as the President did his speech, and practicing instead the Golden Rule of Global Competition: do unto others as they are doing unto us. Right now China, for one, is implementing a full-blown industrial strategy that secures both their emerging clean energy industry and its markets. The faux populism toward the banks that the President displayed in his speech is no substitute for the United States pursuing policies that nurture U.S. markets and restore employment in manufacturing the products of the desired clean energy economy.

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Mark Miller: Retirement Planning: Cut Your Debt Before You Quit

January 28, 2010

Most financial advisors tend to focus on how much you need to save. But it’s equally important to cut your debt load as retirement approaches–especially your credit cards and mortgage. Unfortunately, pre-retirees today are carrying unprecedented levels of debt, which could become a big problem for them when they’re ready to stop working. So, anyone aiming to retire in the next decade or so should consider taking a crash course in slashing your debt. This week at MoneyWatch.com, I report on the key steps to slashing debt ahead of retirement.

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Simoleon Sense » Blog Archive » Distressed Debt Investor: Tackles …

January 28, 2010

Click Here To Read: Distressed Debt Investor: Tackles The Confirmation Bias. Introduction (DDI). A few months ago, we interviewed hedge fund manager Peter Lupoff, who is the founder of Tiburon Capital Management. …

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Kenexa Names Kevin Horigan as President of Global HR Technology

January 28, 2010

Horigan Brings More Than 20 Years’ Experience in Leading Enterprise Software and High Technology Organizations

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China Crescent Enterprises, Inc. CEO Danner to Move to New Role and Introduce New CEO to Lead Company to $100 Million Profitable 2010 Revenue Objective

January 28, 2010

DALLAS, TX–(Marketwire – January 28, 2010) – China Crescent Enterprises, Inc. ( OTCBB : CCTR ) has scheduled an on-demand Webcast for Thursday, February 4, 2010 to provide a review of the 2010 strategic kickoff in China and Singapore that concluded yesterday. Management is also expected to present on the Company’s more than $100 million contract pipeline in China and the Company’s $100 million 2010 revenue objective. Paul K. Danner, the current CEO of China Crescent, is also expected to introduce the Company’s next CEO, a talented executive with extensive technology industry experience who is being promoted from within the Company ranks. Mr. Danner will remain within the family of companies that includes China Crescent, serving in a more global role. Further details on his new worldwide responsibilities will also be included in the Webcast. A link to the Webcast is slated to be published on the corporate website

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JPMorgan’s Black to Become a Vice Chairman of Company, Report to CEO Dimon

January 28, 2010

By Elizabeth Hester Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — Steven Black will drop his role as executive chairman of JPMorgan Chase & Co .’s investment bank to become a vice chairman of the company, reporting to Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon . Black, 57, agreed to keep working with global clients for at least three years, according to an internal memo from Dimon obtained by Bloomberg News. Black has been executive chairman of the investment bank since September, when Dimon named Jes Staley , 53, as sole CEO, replacing co-CEOs Black and William Winters , 48, who left the company. Black will be freed from day-to-day management of the investment bank, enabling him to travel to meet clients, a separate internal memo from Black to JPMorgan employees said. Black said last year he was ready to step back from the daily business, resulting in Staley’s appointment. “The transition to Jes Staley as CEO of the investment bank has gone smoothly and quickly, and Steve has said that he’s ready to move on to a new role serving clients across the firm,” Dimon said in the memo. To contact the reporter on this story: Elizabeth Hester in New York at ehester@bloomberg.net .

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Afghanistan Aims to Take Control of Its Security by 2015, Conference Says

January 28, 2010

By Ali Sheikholeslami and Kitty Donaldson Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — Afghanistan should take control of its security within five years, a conference on the future of the country agreed today. Ministers at the London talks pledged to help expand the Afghan National Army to 171,600 by October 2011 and the Afghan National Police to 134,000 by the same time, a joint communiqué said. More than 60 foreign ministers met top Afghan officials to approve a political strategy backing the U.S.-led troop surge. The talks aimed to show support for Afghan President Hamid Karzai while paving the way for troops to come home as voters in Europe and the U.S. tire of a war now in its ninth year. “This is not an exit strategy. It is about making clear the conditions that will allow Afghan forces to safely take the lead,” U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in a speech to the conference. “As the transition proceeds we will continue to support the Afghans as partners.” Governments at the conference will pledge about $500 million for an international trust fund to provide jobs, homes and farming help for Taliban fighters who return to civilian life, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said. Germany has pledged $70 million to the fund and Japan $50 million. The U.S. will separately allocate funds for battlefield integration of former fighters by U.S. military commanders, Richard Holbrooke , the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, said in an interview. “We must reach out to all of our countrymen, especially our disenchanted brothers who are not part of al-Qaeda or other terror networks,” Karzai said. To contact the reporter on this story: Ali Sheikholeslami in London at alis2@bloomberg.net Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net

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Senate Approves Increasing U.S. Debt Limit by $1.9 Trillion in 60-39 Vote

January 28, 2010

By Brian Faler Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. Senate voted to increase the federal debt limit by $1.9 trillion, to $14.3 trillion, which lawmakers said would be enough to accommodate borrowing for the rest of this year. The vote was 60-39 for the measure, which now goes to the House. It would be the fifth time lawmakers raised the limit on government borrowing in the past two years. The vote is a win for Democrats who fended off Republican attempts to force them into repeated, smaller increases in the debt ceiling before the November elections. In an effort to reduce spending, lawmakers amended the measure to enact Congress’s anti-deficit “pay as you go” rule into law. This year’s deficit, projected to reach $1.35 trillion, will amount to 9 percent of the economy. Senators defeated other anti-deficit amendments, including creation of a special debt commission and a rule to set binding caps on spending. As a backup plan, President Barack Obama announced last night in his State of the Union address he will create a debt commission by executive order to come up with a plan to reduce the deficit. “I refuse to pass this problem on to another generation of Americans,” Obama said in his speech to a joint session of Congress. Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad , a North Dakota Democrat, said the commission to be appointed by Obama would resemble one rejected this week by the chamber. Votes Assured Conrad said he received assurances from House and Senate leaders the panel’s recommendations will get a vote later this year without any amendments. The commission will aim to reduce the deficit to 3 percent of the economy by 2015, Conrad said. Congressional Budget Office Director Doug Elmendorf warned yesterday that the nation’s debt levels are “moving into territory that most developed countries stay out of.” Elmendorf told a congressional panel there is a “fundamental disconnect between the services that people expect the government to provide, particularly for benefits for older Americans, and the tax revenues people are prepared to send to the government to finance those services.” The imbalance can’t be fixed with “minor tinkering” and must be addressed “if the nation is to avoid serious long-term damage to the economy,” Elmendorf said. The CBO projects that deficits over the next 10 years will total $6 trillion. That doesn’t include the cost of extending former President George W. Bush’s tax cuts or preventing more taxpayers from having to pay the alternative minimum tax, which isn’t indexed for inflation. Obama proposed freezing non-security-related discretionary spending, which represents one-eighth of the budget, to save $15 billion next year and $250 billion over 10 years. The White House plans to release its budget request for the upcoming fiscal year on Feb. 1. To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Faler  in Washington at bfaler@bloomberg.net

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JBS Puts Off $2 Billion IPO of U.S. Unit, Citing Deterioration of Market

January 28, 2010

By Lucia Kassai and Rodrigo Orihuela Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — JBS SA , the world’s biggest beef producer, delayed the $2 billion initial public offering of its U.S. unit amid market conditions that have “deteriorated.” The share sale won’t take place until after fourth-quarter earnings are released and may occur in the first half of the year if conditions improve, Chief Executive Officer Joesley Batista told reporters today at an event in Sao Paulo. JBS had said it would price the IPO this month. “I think it is still possible to put it out in the first half of 2010,” Batista said. “But it really depends on market conditions that have recently deteriorated.” JBS is raising cash through bond and share sales to pay for the takeover of Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. and to fund a $2 billion distribution network. The Sao Paulo-based company now controls about 10 percent of global beef processing following about 30 acquisitions since 1993, including that of Swift & Co. in 2007. Brazilian regulators asked JBS to include the acquisitions of Pilgrim’s Pride and Bertin SA into its fourth-quarter earnings results, which is delaying the process, Batista said. JBS rose 1 percent to 9.24 reais at 3:10 p.m. in Sao Paulo trading. The stock has almost doubled in the past year. Market ‘Not Ideal’ “Investors welcomed the IPO delay because market conditions are not ideal,” Rafael Cintra , an analyst with Link Investimentos in Sao Paulo, who has a “buy” recommendation on the stock, said today in a telephone interview. A bond buyback announced today “signaled they are concerned about improving debt profile,” he said. The meatpacker said today in a regulatory filing that it is buying back $275 million of its 9.375 percent senior notes due in 2011. Poultry producer BRF Brasil Foods SA sold $750 million of 10-year bonds to yield 7.375 percent last week. Last month, JBS concluded a $2 billion bond sale to finance the takeover of Pilgrim’s Pride and Bertin. The IPO delay comes after National Beef Inc., the Kansas City-based meatpacker that accounts for 14 percent of the U.S. federally inspected steer and heifer slaughter, postponed its initial share sale last month. The company cited the “weakness in the IPO market.” National Beef was one of seven American companies that have shelved IPOs since the start of November, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Cellu Tissue Holdings Inc. cut its price by 24 percent last week, while Chesapeake Lodging Trust raised 40 percent less than it originally sought. In Brazil, Metalfrio Solutions SA, the nation’s biggest maker of commercial refrigerators, canceled its planned share sale. M. Dias Branco SA, the biggest maker of cookies and pasta, also postponed an offering in the past week as the Bovespa index fell 8.4 percent since Jan. 6, the worst slump since October. Batista had said Nov. 16 that the company was planning to give presentations to U.S. investors between Jan. 4 and Jan. 8, before setting the price for the sale in the week of Jan. 11. To contact the reporters on this story: Lucia Kassai in Sao Paulo at lkassai@bloomberg.net ;

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Treasury Pledges to Protect Repos as Obama’s Bank-Fee Plan Sparks Concern

January 28, 2010

By Rebecca Christie and Liz Capo McCormick Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — Treasury officials say they’re considering ways to sustain trading in the $3.8 trillion-a-day repurchase agreement market as the Obama administration plans a regulatory overhaul that may change how banks fund operations. “We are dedicated to doing this in a way that does not disrupt market functioning,” said Lee Sachs , a counselor to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and an architect of the administration’s financial industry agenda, in an interview. President Barack Obama has proposed a fee on bank liabilities, proprietary trading limits and other regulatory changes designed to rein in risk taking after the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. The proposals have raised concern that banks may reduce exposure on short-term liabilities by pulling back from the repo market, potentially jeopardizing the Federal Reserve’s plans to drain excess reserves from the banking system as the economy strengthens. The repo market is primarily made up of overnight trades that exchange Treasury or mortgage debt for cash. The size of the market, which most securities firms use to finance holdings, is now about half of a peak $7 trillion level reached in the first quarter of 2008, before global credit markets froze. “If there is less liquidity it always most affects the smaller players, the more-leveraged players and it could ultimately affect the U.S. Treasury,” said Jeff Kidwell , director of funding and Direct Repo at Boca Raton, Florida-based broker dealer AVM LP. ‘Less Willing’ The administration wants to recover government fees spent during the financial crisis through a levy on banks, which is projected to recoup at least $90 billion over 10 years. The fee, proposed as a 15-basis-point tax on liabilities other than insured deposits, could make repo transactions money losers for firms because profit margins on trades may be less than the fee. “One of the modifications I expect would be to exclude Treasury repo, in part because the Fed wants to drain reserves using the repo market,” said Joseph Abate , a money market strategist in New York at Barclays Plc, one of the 18 primary dealers that trade with the central bank. “The 15 basis points fee would obviously make the banks less willing to participate in those transactions.” The Fed withdrew $990 million in reserves through so-called reverse repos in December in a series of tests on how it may drain some of the $1 trillion in cash pumped into the economy last year. In a reverse repo, the Fed lends securities for a set period. At maturity, the securities are returned to the Fed, and the cash to the dealers. Industry Oil Government policy makers have acted to shield the repo market in the past. The House of Representatives passed a financial overhaul bill in December that would penalize fully secured creditors if a systemically important financial firm failed, after carving out an exemption for trades involving Treasury securities. “The repo market is the oil in the industry of Wall Street finance, and financing is a key core part of the marketplace,” said Scott Skyrm , senior vice president and head of repo and money markets for NewEdge USA LLC in New York. If the Obama plan goes through “as it stands now, it could have a huge impact.” Obama has also proposed limits on the types of activities banks can engage in, in an effort to prevent banks from taking risks with their customers’ money. When added to the proposed bank tax and the House bill, the combined effect could encourage banks to focus on government-insured deposits instead of a broader funding mix, said Chip MacDonald , a partner with Jones Day in Atlanta who specializes in banking deals. “All of them sort of push people away from diversity of funding sources, especially liquidity sources,” MacDonald said. “They seem at odds with financial stability and all the work the regulators have done to restore interbank liquidity.” Libor-OIS Spread Regulators issued guidance in July instructing banks to manage their liquidity risk carefully and avoid funding concentrations. The collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008 triggered a global credit squeeze that lasted into the following year and exacerbated the recession. When lenders perceived that Lehman might not pay repo loans or be able to post adequate collateral, they required more and higher quality assets from the firm. The premium banks charge each other for short-term loans, the so-called Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of banks’ reluctance to lend, surged to a record 3.64 percentage points in October 2008 amid a near freeze in lending. It was 0.1 percent point today. Proposal Details “Undue reliance on any one source of funding is considered an unsafe and unsound practice,” the Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and three other regulators wrote. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair has spoken out in favor of curtailing reliance on short-term funding sources, particularly for making risky long- term loans. Treasury officials say they will consider market impact when designing the details of the proposal. For example, there may be advantages to using average daily levels of bank exposure rather than quarterly figures. “We have long realized that we would have to address these issues, but we wanted to discuss with industry and the Hill before releasing specific details on exactly how we this will be executed,” Sachs said. To contact the reporters on this story: Rebecca Christie in Washington at rchristie4@bloomberg.net ; Liz Capo McCormick in New York at emccormick7@bloomberg.net

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Franklin, T. Rowe Price Lead Money-Manager Profits as Investors Buy Bonds

January 28, 2010

By Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam and Christopher Condon Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — Franklin Resources Inc. and T. Rowe Price Group Inc . led asset managers in reporting higher profit as investors poured money into bonds in the fourth quarter. Net income almost tripled at San Mateo, California-based Franklin and leapt sixfold for Baltimore’s T. Rowe Price as the two firms recorded a combined $21.6 billion in net inflows. Market gains helped profit triple at Atlanta-based Invesco Ltd . and increase fivefold at Janus Capital Group Inc. in Denver. The firms reversed gains in New York trading after stock markets in the U.S. and Europe declined, raising concern retail investors may be slow to return to stocks after they sat out a 60 percent rally from the March 9 low. T. Rowe’s Chief Executive Officer James Kennedy said mutual fund clients are “scared” to move back into equities. “The markets have fallen enough over the past week that people are concerned flows might follow,” Jeffrey Hopson , an analyst with Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in St. Louis, said in an interview. “The earnings themselves were strong,” especially for T. Rowe Price and Franklin, Hopson said. Asset managers benefited as last year’s stock market rally boosted the value of assets and mutual-fund investors in the U.S. poured $101.4 billion into bonds during the quarter, according to Chicago-based Morningstar Inc. Stock funds lost $9.77 billion in the quarter. Franklin recorded the biggest inflows, with clients adding a net $14.3 billion in the quarter, led by $12.7 billion inflows into global fixed-income funds. Clients pulled $2.2 billion from stock funds. T. Rowe attracted $7.3 billion, with $3.8 billion going into bond mutual funds and $800 million into stock mutual funds. ‘Bumpy Road’ “People have a little more confidence in the markets, but I think it will be a bumpy road,” Kennedy said in an interview. U.S. stocks slid and European shares reversed gains, while the dollar rose and Treasuries erased losses, as Qualcomm Inc.’s forecast disappointed investors and speculation of a Greece bailout was quelled. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 1.6 percent by 12:27 p.m. in New York , wiping out yesterday’s gain and sending the gauge below its lowest close since Nov. 6, while Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index reversed a 1.4 percent rally and fell 1.l percent. Franklin declined 5 percent to $98.86, after rising as much as 2.7 percent earlier. T. Rowe, which had gained as much as 2.8 percent, fell 6.6 percent. Invesco declined 6.8 percent and Janus reversed a 4.1 percent gain to drop 4.6 percent. ‘Scared’ BlackRock Inc . fell 4.6 percent to $216.30. The world’s largest asset-management firm yesterday reported $38 billion in net inflows during the fourth quarter, led by $18.1 billion in deposits into fixed-income funds. “There was a slight shift to equities, but only slight,” Kennedy said, referring to mutual fund flows at the start of this year. “People were scared and properly so.” T. Rowe’s profit reached $152.5 million, or 57 cents a share, beating the 55 cent average estimate of 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The firm, which reported a profit in every quarter over the past decade, is increasing its advertising spending to about $26 million in the first quarter of 2010, from $6.9 million in the previous quarter. Franklin, manager of the Franklin and Templeton mutual funds, said net income rose to $355.6 million, or $1.54 a share, from $120.9 million, or 52 cents, year earlier. Analysts had forecast earnings of $1.47 a share. Invesco, Janus Invesco, manager of the Aim and PowerShares funds, reported profit of $110.9 million, or 25 cents a share, compared with $31.9 million, or 8 cents, a year earlier, when the company recorded $43 million in costs related to market losses and job cuts. The firm had $5.1 billion in net outflows, driven by withdrawals of $7.7 billion from institutional money-market accounts. Janus said profit rose to $37 million, or 20 cents a share, from $7.8 million, or 5 cents, a year earlier. Outflows at the company’s Intech unit, which uses mathematical models to pick stocks, were offset by deposits in actively managed funds under the Janus and Perkins brand names. To contact the reporter on this story: Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam in Boston at Christopher Condon in Boston at ccondon4@bloomberg.net

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Geithner `Not Doing His Job’ During Final Days at New York Fed, Issa Says

January 28, 2010

By Kathleen Hays and Andrew Frye Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner was “simply not doing his job” in his last weeks running the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Representative Darrell Issa said today. By withdrawing from day-to-day matters at the New York Fed in late November of 2008, without formalizing the arrangement in a signed document, Geithner left it unclear who was in charge, Issa said in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “We are saddened by that,” said Issa, a California Republican. “If there had been a notice of recusal, people would have looked to the vice president of the Fed and would have looked to him every day.” To contact the reporter on this story: Andrew Frye in New York at afrye@bloomberg.net

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