August 2010

Maruti mulls new factory in India

August 27, 2010

Maruti mulls new factory in India

Read the full article →

Afghanistan commences oil exploration in north

August 27, 2010

Afghanistan commences oil exploration in north

Read the full article →

US plans to boost anti-dumping system

August 27, 2010

US plans to boost anti-dumping system

Read the full article →

British sales rise in August

August 27, 2010

British sales rise in August

Read the full article →

Video: Credit Agricole’s Kotecha Discusses Global Economies: Video

August 26, 2010

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — Mitul Kotecha, Hong Kong-based global head of foreign-exchange strategy at Credit Agricole CIB, talks about the outlook for the U.S. and European economies and central banks’ monetary policies. Kotecha also discusses the possibility that Japan’s policy makers will take measures to curb the yen’s advance. Kotecha talks with Linzie Janis on Bloomberg Television’s “Global Connection.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Read the full article →

USA Today To Cut About 130 Jobs In ‘Radical’ Overhaul

August 26, 2010

SAN FRANCISCO — USA Today, the nation’s second largest newspaper, is making the most dramatic overhaul of its staff in its 28-year history as it de-emphasizes its print edition and ramps up its effort to reach more readers and advertisers on mobile devices. The makeover outlined Thursday will result in about 130 layoffs this fall, USA Today Publisher Dave Hunke told The Associated Press. That translates into a 9 percent reduction in USA Today’s work force of 1,500 employees. Hunke didn’t specify which departments would be hardest hit. The management shake-up affects both the newspaper’s business operations and newsroom. Like most newspapers, Gannett Co.’s USA Today has been cutting back in recent years to offset a steep drop in advertising that is depleting its main source of income. To compound the problem, fewer readers are paying for newspapers as free news proliferates on the Web. Those challenges triggered the most dramatic reorganization since USA Today first hit the streets in 1982 with a then-unique blend of shorter stories surrounded by colorful graphics and pictures. “This is pretty radical,” Hunke said of the shake-up. “This gets us ready for our next quarter century.” In the first wave of change, USA Today, which is based in McLean, Va., will no longer have separate managing editors overseeing its News, Sports, Money and Life sections. The newsroom instead will be broken up into a cluster of “content rings” each headed up by editors who will be appointed later this year. The newly created content group will be overseen by Susan Weiss, who had been managing editor of the Life section. As executive editor of content, Weiss will report to USA Today Editor John Hillkirk. “We’ll focus less on print … and more on producing content for all platforms (Web, mobile, iPad and other digital formats),” according to a slide show presented Thursday to USA Today’s staff. The AP obtained copy of the presentation. In a move that may raise conflict-of-interest questions, Weiss will have a “collaborative relationship” with USA Today’s newly appointed vice president of business development, Rudd Davis, according to one slide. Davis, the founder of sports website BNQT.com, is being brought in to oversee new business opportunities and brand licensing among other things. BNQT, which focuses on sports such as skateboarding and skiing that appeal to younger audiences, was bought by Gannett in 2007. Thursday’s slide presentation also said USA Today’s restructuring will “usher in a new way of doing business that aligns sales efforts with the content we produce.” In separate interviews, both Hunke and Hillkirk said the newspaper won’t allow its need to generate more revenue interfere with its commitment to the First Amendment or investigative journalism. “Under no circumstances do we ever compromise our integrity,” Hunke said. “But I don’t see any problem with finding out ways to build out strategies that work for advertisers. Frankly, if we do that, we will have a very prosperous future and we are going to stay in the journalism business.” Although USA Today still makes most of its money from its print edition, the reorganization revolves around smart phones and computer tablets such as Apple Inc.’s iPad, which are creating new ways to sell subscriptions and advertising. “We have to go where the audience is,” Hillkirk said. “If people are hitting the iPad like crazy, or the iPhone or other mobile devices, we’ve got to be there with the content they want, when they want it.” USA Today’s circulation has been plunging in recent years, dropping to an average of 1.83 million during the six months ending in March. That’s down from 2.3 million in 2007 when USA today reigned as the nation’s largest newspaper. The Wall Street Journal now holds that position with a circulation of 2.09 million. Besides its circulation, USA Today’s advertising also has been falling. The newspaper sold 580 advertising pages in its most recent quarter ending in June. That’s nearly a 50 percent drop from the 1,098 pages sold at the same time in 2006, before newspaper advertising began its steep slide. USA Today’s struggles are one reason why Gannett’s stock price has plunged 78 percent in the past four years, going from about $55 at this time in 2006 to Thursday’s closing price of $12.18. Gannett doesn’t break out USA Today’s finances, but the newspaper is by far the largest of the more than 80 dailies the company owns. The mobile push will be overseen by Steve Kurtz, who was appointed vice president of digital distribution. He had been director of digital information technology for USAToday.com. Other new department heads are: Jeff Dionise, vice president of product development and design; and Heather Frank, vice president of vertical development. USA Today thinks one of its biggest opportunities is sports, which will become “a business unto itself,” Hunke said. The newly created USA Today Sports will be run by Ross Schaufelberger, a former CEO of BNQT Media Group. The newspapers other content rings will consist of “Your Life,” “Travel,” “Breaking News,” “Investigative,” “National,” “Washington/Economy,” “World,” Environment/Science,” “Aviation,” “Personal Finance,” “Autos,” “Entertainment” and “Tech.”

Read the full article →

USA Today To Cut About 130 Jobs In ‘Radical’ Overhaul

August 26, 2010

SAN FRANCISCO — USA Today, the nation’s second largest newspaper, is making the most dramatic overhaul of its staff in its 28-year history as it de-emphasizes its print edition and ramps up its effort to reach more readers and advertisers on mobile devices. The makeover outlined Thursday will result in about 130 layoffs this fall, USA Today Publisher Dave Hunke told The Associated Press. That translates into a 9 percent reduction in USA Today’s work force of 1,500 employees. Hunke didn’t specify which departments would be hardest hit. The management shake-up affects both the newspaper’s business operations and newsroom. Like most newspapers, Gannett Co.’s USA Today has been cutting back in recent years to offset a steep drop in advertising that is depleting its main source of income. To compound the problem, fewer readers are paying for newspapers as free news proliferates on the Web. Those challenges triggered the most dramatic reorganization since USA Today first hit the streets in 1982 with a then-unique blend of shorter stories surrounded by colorful graphics and pictures. “This is pretty radical,” Hunke said of the shake-up. “This gets us ready for our next quarter century.” In the first wave of change, USA Today, which is based in McLean, Va., will no longer have separate managing editors overseeing its News, Sports, Money and Life sections. The newsroom instead will be broken up into a cluster of “content rings” each headed up by editors who will be appointed later this year. The newly created content group will be overseen by Susan Weiss, who had been managing editor of the Life section. As executive editor of content, Weiss will report to USA Today Editor John Hillkirk. “We’ll focus less on print … and more on producing content for all platforms (Web, mobile, iPad and other digital formats),” according to a slide show presented Thursday to USA Today’s staff. The AP obtained copy of the presentation. In a move that may raise conflict-of-interest questions, Weiss will have a “collaborative relationship” with USA Today’s newly appointed vice president of business development, Rudd Davis, according to one slide. Davis, the founder of sports website BNQT.com, is being brought in to oversee new business opportunities and brand licensing among other things. BNQT, which focuses on sports such as skateboarding and skiing that appeal to younger audiences, was bought by Gannett in 2007. Thursday’s slide presentation also said USA Today’s restructuring will “usher in a new way of doing business that aligns sales efforts with the content we produce.” In separate interviews, both Hunke and Hillkirk said the newspaper won’t allow its need to generate more revenue interfere with its commitment to the First Amendment or investigative journalism. “Under no circumstances do we ever compromise our integrity,” Hunke said. “But I don’t see any problem with finding out ways to build out strategies that work for advertisers. Frankly, if we do that, we will have a very prosperous future and we are going to stay in the journalism business.” Although USA Today still makes most of its money from its print edition, the reorganization revolves around smart phones and computer tablets such as Apple Inc.’s iPad, which are creating new ways to sell subscriptions and advertising. “We have to go where the audience is,” Hillkirk said. “If people are hitting the iPad like crazy, or the iPhone or other mobile devices, we’ve got to be there with the content they want, when they want it.” USA Today’s circulation has been plunging in recent years, dropping to an average of 1.83 million during the six months ending in March. That’s down from 2.3 million in 2007 when USA today reigned as the nation’s largest newspaper. The Wall Street Journal now holds that position with a circulation of 2.09 million. Besides its circulation, USA Today’s advertising also has been falling. The newspaper sold 580 advertising pages in its most recent quarter ending in June. That’s nearly a 50 percent drop from the 1,098 pages sold at the same time in 2006, before newspaper advertising began its steep slide. USA Today’s struggles are one reason why Gannett’s stock price has plunged 78 percent in the past four years, going from about $55 at this time in 2006 to Thursday’s closing price of $12.18. Gannett doesn’t break out USA Today’s finances, but the newspaper is by far the largest of the more than 80 dailies the company owns. The mobile push will be overseen by Steve Kurtz, who was appointed vice president of digital distribution. He had been director of digital information technology for USAToday.com. Other new department heads are: Jeff Dionise, vice president of product development and design; and Heather Frank, vice president of vertical development. USA Today thinks one of its biggest opportunities is sports, which will become “a business unto itself,” Hunke said. The newly created USA Today Sports will be run by Ross Schaufelberger, a former CEO of BNQT Media Group. The newspapers other content rings will consist of “Your Life,” “Travel,” “Breaking News,” “Investigative,” “National,” “Washington/Economy,” “World,” Environment/Science,” “Aviation,” “Personal Finance,” “Autos,” “Entertainment” and “Tech.”

Read the full article →

Bill Hurt To Star In HBO Financial Crisis Pic

August 26, 2010

HBO has set William Hurt to play Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Curtis Hanson to direct Too Big To Fail, a dissection of the 2008 financial crisis and the power brokers who decided the fate of the world’s economy as the system teetered on collapse.

Read the full article →

Bill Hurt To Star In HBO Financial Crisis Pic

August 26, 2010

HBO has set William Hurt to play Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Curtis Hanson to direct Too Big To Fail, a dissection of the 2008 financial crisis and the power brokers who decided the fate of the world’s economy as the system teetered on collapse.

Read the full article →

Banks’ Self-Dealing, Fake Demand Made Financial Crisis Much Worse

August 26, 2010

Over the last two years of the housing bubble, Wall Street bankers perpetrated one of the greatest episodes of self-dealing in financial history. Faced with increasing difficulty in selling the mortgage-backed securities that had been among their most lucrative products, the banks hit on a solution that preserved their quarterly earnings and huge bonuses: They created fake demand.

Read the full article →

Paul Krugman: This Is Not A Recovery

August 26, 2010

What will Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, say in his big speech Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyo.? Will he hint at new steps to boost the economy? Stay tuned. But we can safely predict what he and other officials will say about where we are right now: that the economy is continuing to recover, albeit more slowly than they would like. Unfortunately, that’s not true: this isn’t a recovery, in any sense that matters. And policy makers should be doing everything they can to change that fact.

Read the full article →

Video: Wyss Says Rising Commodities Will Restrain China Growth: Video

August 26, 2010

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — David Wyss, global chief economist at Standard & Poor’s, talks about the outlook for China’s economy. Wyss also discusses economies in the U.S. and Europe, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il’s reported visit to China. Wyss speaks in Hong Kong with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)

Read the full article →

Video: Wyss Says Rising Commodities Will Restrain China Growth: Video

August 26, 2010

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — David Wyss, global chief economist at Standard & Poor’s, talks about the outlook for China’s economy. Wyss also discusses economies in the U.S. and Europe, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il’s reported visit to China. Wyss speaks in Hong Kong with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)

Read the full article →

CoStar’s People of Note (Aug. 22-28)

August 26, 2010

This week’s People of Note includes the following markets: Atlanta, Denver, Hartford, New York City, Northern New Jersey, Retail, South Florida and Washington, DC. ATLANTA Brown Joins Cortland as Chief Acquisitions Officer Cortland Partners recruited…

Read the full article →

Eric Schurenberg: 5 Reasons to Stop Worrying About Home Prices

August 26, 2010

The New York Times more or less pronounced the single family home dead as an asset this week. Data from the National Association of Realtor s and the Federal Home Financing Agency hammered some nails into the coffin. But come now, folks. Let’s apply a little perspective: The pessimistic scenario isn’t all that pessimistic One downbeat economist quoted by the Times predicted that housing will rise at the rate of inflation for the foreseeable future. The rate of inflation happens to be roughly the long-term return on residential real estate over the past century, according to Robert Shiller, the Yale economist and real estate historian. So the bubble of 2000 to 2006 was the anomaly, not the “grim” long-term future foreseen by the Times . (Speaking of anomalies, Shiller in this interview warns against over-reacting to the lousy housing numbers that came out this week since they were skewed by the expiration of Uncle Sam’s homebuyer’s credit.) Yo u can still make money on a house, even if the pessimists are right. If you put 20% down on a home and it rises by the rate of inflation, your equity appreciates at five times the rate of inflation. There’s no guarantee that there will be any appreciation at all–that’s the risk–and maintenance and taxes will take away some of your return. But you don’t need a bubble to be rewarded for taking the risk. You still get plenty of value from owning a home, even if you don’t make a killing. As my colleague Charlie Farrell points out, paying down a mortgage allows you to accelerate your single biggest housing expense into your peak earning years when you can best afford it. Once you’ve paid it off-at retirement, presumably-you’ve significantly pared your living expenses. And as my colleague Linda Stern points out, you also get a place to call your own for all that time-which is really the point, after all. If history is any guide, the Times story is a buy signal. These are the kinds of stories that tend to appear on front pages at market bottoms. Yes, the weak economy is keeping home buyers off the market. Yes, foreclosures are clogging the market, and smart people like Barry Ritholtz believe that homes have further to fall. There are dozens of reasons no one will ever buy a home again. But that’s how it always looks at a bottom. At some price, people will still buy. A house in a reasonably viable neighborhood is not an AIG bond or a share of Lehman Brothers. It has an intrinsic value. People need somewhere to live, and prices have been falling faster than rents. The National Association of Home Builders Affordability Index is near record levels. The CoreLogic home price to rental ratio , which compares prices and rents, shows that the rents and ownership costs are coming back into line, even if they’re not historically cheap yet. But at some price, a home becomes so attractive compared to renting that it becomes foolish not to buy. That price may not be what you hoped. It may well be even lower than today’s price. But your home’s price now is far closer today to that intrinsic value than it was in 2007. Why wasn’t the Times calling the housing market dead then? More on CBS MoneyWatch: Is Housing a Dumb Investment Now? Is Your House an Asset or a Liability? Home Sales Still Stink

Read the full article →

Gulf Oil Spill Cleanup Winners And Losers

August 26, 2010

The Gulf oil spill is a bonanza for some and a bust for others. The worst offshore oil spill in U.S. history has spurred something of an economic boom in some communities where cleanup operations are based, an Associated Press analysis has shown. But BP’s oil spill has delivered a double whammy to areas too far away from the cleanup to serve as a staging ground for masses of workers, but close enough to experience severe losses in tourism, fishing and drilling. Sales tax revenue in Gulf states showed a stark difference. In Louisiana’s Plaquemines Parish alone, a fishing and oil-and-gas mecca that saw an influx of about 5,000 cleanup workers, state sales tax revenue shot up 80 percent in June over the same month of 2009. By contrast, Vermilion Parish in the Cajun country of western Louisiana, close enough to the spill to turn off tourists but too far to play a significant role in the cleanup, suffered a 45 percent decrease for the same period. The two areas share a common thread: Both have been affected by the closing of Gulf fishing grounds and the threat to oil field jobs posed by a federal moratorium on deepwater drilling. But if there is good news to be found in the oil spill, it is in front-line places like Plaquemines, where thousands of spill workers and companies that serve their needs, such as caterers, have snapped up lodges and rental housing and have spent their pay in local honky-tonks and restaurants. “The cleanup is a whole industry,” said Brooke Andry, whose 20 or so rental properties in Plaquemines are booked up with cleanup workers and BP officials instead of the customary recreational fishermen. The AP analysis showed that, taken together, the 39 Gulf Coast counties and parishes in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida actually saw a modest increase in year-over-year sales tax revenue following the spill. However, this is a tale of booms canceling out busts, of selective prosperity, and of temporary relief that has done little to assuage anxiety about the future. Using year-to-year changes in the amount of taxes collected by retailers or service providers whenever they do business is an imperfect method of calculating the impact of the oil spill since other factors also play a role. Yet the data offers a glimpse into some of the unexpected economic distortions caused by the BP disaster – and the lives and livelihoods it overturned. In Vermilion and other areas on the fringe, tourists have stayed away under the false impression that the whole coast is lathered in oil. And a federal drilling moratorium has cast a shadow on the future of the oil business, a linchpin of the local economy. “People don’t want to be in an area that has problems like this,” said Betty Bernard, owner of Betty’s RV Park in the Vermilion community of Abbeville, which has lost half its business this summer from last year. “The news media has it that we have oil in our backyards, and we don’t.” The economic impact of the April 20 rig explosion that killed 11 workers and sent more than 200 million gallons of crude gushing into the Gulf of Mexico hasn’t yet been fully calculated. BP already has paid out $399 million in claims to residents and businesses who say they were affected by the spill, and the $20 billion set aside by BP at the behest of the Obama administration to compensate spill victims will certainly help ameliorate suffering. Yet the feeling along much of Gulf Coast is high anxiety. “A lot of the revenues come from oil-producing companies, so if they’re not producing, we’re not getting any revenue,” said Ray Dugal, president of the Greater Abbeville-Vermilion Chamber of Commerce. As for tourism, “one of the perceptions … is that we’re in 6 feet of oil,” he said. Given the uncertainty, workers and residents just don’t want to spend money, Dugal said. In nearby St. Mary’s Parish, state sales tax revenue dropped 9.9 percent in May and 3.2 percent in June. At St. Mary Seafood & Marina, sales of fish, crabs and crawfish dropped by a third as out-of-state buyers grew worried about whether Gulf seafood was safe to eat. “Whenever all of the pictures of the birds in oil came out, that is when the sales started to drop,” said owner Daniel Edgar. Of all the Gulf parishes and counties, the biggest boom has been in Plaquemines, where oil from the well about 50 miles offshore first touched the U.S. mainland April 29. Other oil-affected Louisiana parishes saw a sales tax boost in June, too: St. Bernard (15 percent), St. Tammany (14 percent) and LaFourche (9.6 percent), according to the AP analysis. Sharon Couture, 60, runs a convenience store in Yscloskey, a tiny fishing village in eastern St. Bernard. “They come in all the time,” she said of cleanup workers. “They buy beer, energy drinks, cigarettes, that sort of thing. “I’d say I’m about breaking even because of them. The fishermen used to come in and spend $40, $50. These guys come in and spend $5, $10. There’s just more of them.” But she doesn’t know how quickly the fishermen will return, and she is fearful. “I told my husband if BP pulls out, we’ll just close up and leave. We won’t make enough to live on then,” she said. Plaquemines President Billy Nungesser – a frequent and vocal critic of the spill response – said the windfall his parish collected will be banked to offset projected declines in early 2011 as the cleanup effort winds down. He said he expects revenue from marinas to fall by 70 percent and at hotels by 80 percent. “As we go into the winter and next year … we’ll need it to make up the shortcomings in those months after BP is gone,” Nungesser said. The exception to the southeast Louisiana mini-boom is New Orleans, where state sales tax dropped 5 percent in May and 10.5 percent in June from a year ago. The numbers may be less a reflection of the spill than the completion in the past year of several post-Hurricane Katrina construction projects, said economist Loren Scott. Outside Louisiana, which has taken the brunt of oil, changes in sales tax revenue for other Gulf counties were small. In Florida, coastal counties outside the Panhandle, where not a drop of oil washed ashore, revenue grew over last year for the most part. In the Panhandle, revenue rose in every coastal county except one in May. In June, it rose slightly in half the counties and dipped slightly in the rest. Baldwin County, Ala., saw a tiny decrease in state sales tax revenue this summer. Harrison and Jackson counties in Mississippi had slight decreases in May but solid increases in June, helped by the influx of cleanup workers. Hancock County, Miss., which hasn’t had as many cleanup workers, had decreases of 9.6 percent in May and 6.7 percent in June. In other places, it seemed clear that fluctuations had less to do with the oil than other factors. The reopening of a Wal-Mart Super Center in St. Bernard Parish, La., contributed to the 15 percent jump in year-over-year state sales tax revenue in June, said Councilman Frank Auderer. But, he added, the influx of cleanup workers can’t be discounted in the working-class parish just east of New Orleans. Residents of the boom areas, meanwhile, don’t expect their windfall to last long. “Everyone who is local is trying to make good out of a bad situation while they can,” said Andry, the lodge owner. “We’re all riding a wave, but once the spill is cleaned up, or allegedly cleaned up, will there be any fishing? Will the phone be ringing?” ___ AP Writer Mary Foster contributed from Yscloskey, La.

Read the full article →

Video: Eisenbeis Says Fed’s Lack of Clarity Causing Uncertainty: Video

August 26, 2010

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — Robert Eisenbeis, chief monetary economist with Cumberland Advisors Inc. and a former research director at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, talks about Fed monetary policy and the outlook for the U.S. economy. The Ben S. Bernanke-led Fed, while saying U.S. growth would be slower than anticipated, announced on Aug. 10 it will buy Treasuries to set a $2.05 trillion floor on its balance sheet and keep interest rates from rising. Bernanke will have his first public chance to defend the decision and discuss his outlook when he speaks at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming later today. Eisenbeis speaks with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)

Read the full article →

The Semi-Secret World Of Trader Joe’s: The Tasty Bits

August 26, 2010

Fortune reporter Beth Kowitt spent two months digging into the veiled world of Trader Joe’s for her latest cover story . Packaged as an exposé on the “obsessively secretive” company, much of the revelations are fairly inoccuous, though fascinating nonetheless for Trader Joe’s admirers, fans and foes alike. Flip through the photos below for some of the best morsels about the Monrovia-based company — from Fortune’s cover story and elsewhere.

Read the full article →

Noah Mallin: Digital: Mad Men Google Bombing For Fun – and Profit?

August 26, 2010

On last Sunday’s episode of AMC’s period ad drama Mad Men , John Slattery’s World War II vet Roger Sterling exploded in rage at the prospect of pitching to a Japanese client: “Why don’t we just bring Dr. Lyle Evans in here?” The other characters draw a blank on who exactly Dr. Lyle Evans is. As Vanity Fair and others pointed out within minutes the Internet surged with the same question – who is Dr. Lyle Evans? Google searches on the name skyrocketed. Initial speculation was that Mad Men creator Matt Weiner and the show’s writers had created the name as a so-called “Google bomb”, a prank intended to drive a made-up name into trending search charts. So far that still seems to be the case, though some have pointed (check the comments in the Vanity Fair link) to the character of Evan Llewellyn Evans played by Sydney Greenstreet in the classic ad movie The Hucksters as the source of the reference. If it was planted on purpose though, could it also have been for another reason beyond the fun of influencing the behavior of a large group of strangers online? This is entirely speculative, but consider the value of product placement within television shows, a practice that has been on the upswing of late. Typically though the results of such placements can be hard to measure, especially when the product is woven organically into the show’s storyline (as it should be.) How do you prove effectiveness? Search engine queries are a great start. The immediate online response of a big swath of viewers to a show that already offers a dense tapestry of historical references and Easter eggs is hard to beat. What better way to show this influence over fans? This got me to thinking on a broader level about how my fellow modern day ad colleagues look at data to guide strategy and measure results. Sometimes it can be helpful to go off the beaten path and look at non-traditional sources of measurement for inspiration. Take a blog post I read recently about a press release from GM’s OnStar division, which offers drivers turn-by-turn navigation to destinations. The press release listed the Top 10 destinations drivers had used OnStar to search for by brand: 1. Wal-Mart 2. Holiday Inn 3. Home Depot 4. Walgreens 5. Marriott 6. McDonald’s 7. Bank of America 8. Starbucks 9. Target 10. Hampton Inn My first thought was that people may need gas but they don’t seem to care what brand they get it from. The second was that every single one of the brands in the Top 10 ought to be thinking about the power of mobile search ads. Plenty of people use their smart phones to find local destinations while driving (hopefully with the help of a non-driving passenger). What a great additional proof point to bring this home. The fact that an in-car navigation system can tell us about the potential of advertising on mobile devices, and search volume on Google can give insight into the behavior of television viewers brings home the fact that we tend to be doing many things at once these days. We search (and make phone calls) while driving and watching TV, we watch TV and buy things online simultaneously, we work and chat with pals on Facebook at the same time. As our activities multiply, the need to vary the data sources that help us understand this is vital .

Read the full article →

Video: Sinai Says Economy `Flirting’ With Double-Dip Recession: Video

August 26, 2010

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) — Allen Sinai, president of Decision Economics Inc., talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s speech tomorrow entitled, “The Economic Outlook and the Federal Reserve’s Policy Response.” Sinai speaks with Michael McKee on Bloomberg Television’s “Taking Stock” in advance of the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. (Source: Bloomberg)

Read the full article →

Video: Cliggott Says U.S. Government `Frozen’ on Fiscal Policy: Video

August 26, 2010

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) — Doug Cliggott, U.S. equity strategist with Credit Suisse, and John Brady, senior vice president at MF Global, talk about the outlook for U.S. stocks and bonds, Federal Reserve monetary policy and U.S. government fiscal policy. They speak with Matt Miller, Julie Hyman and Dominic Chu on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart”. (Source: Bloomberg)

Read the full article →

West Virginia Mine Explosion Investigators Find New Evidence Of Explosive Methane Levels

August 26, 2010

CHARLESTON, W.Va. — A federal official says a handheld meter found deep inside the Upper Big Branch mine detected explosive levels of methane before a blast killed 29 miners – the first concrete evidence of dangerous concentrations of gas ahead of the April 5 disaster. The meter detected 5 percent methane in the Raleigh County mine’s atmosphere, Mine Safety and Health Administration official Kevin Stricklin told The Associated Press in an interview. The find could be significant because methane isn’t explosive unless it makes up 5 percent to 15 percent of the atmosphere. While a preliminary report issued by MSHA in April blamed methane and coal dust for the explosion, investigators continue to scour the underground mine to find where the blast started and what may have caused it. Richmond, Va.-based Massey Energy Co., the mine’s owner, has said high levels of methane may have poured into the mine and overwhelmed safeguards just before the explosion. General counsel Shane Harvey said the monitor shows the mine’s methane level going from zero to 5 percent in 3 minutes. “That’s the reason we believe, one of the reasons, we believe there’s a sudden inundation of methane.” Previously, MSHA had said only that methane monitors from the mine hadn’t been tampered with before the explosion. Former Massey employees claimed it was routine to electronically “bridge” machine-mounted monitors to prevent them from cutting power if they detected methane approaching dangerous levels. Investigators found the handheld meter in an area near six bodies recovered near the mine’s longwall mining machine, Stricklin said. It was found several weeks ago and has been tested by the agency. Investigators hoped to search the area again as soon as Thursday for more handheld gas meters. They should have found at least one more meter because miners routinely carry the devices, among other things, Stricklin said. MSHA suspects the missing devices could be buried under loose rubble. “We expected to find at least two remotes and we only got one,” Stricklin said. “The one detector that we found was the one detector that had seen 5 percent of gas.” The Upper Big Branch explosion was the worst U.S. coal mining disaster in 40 years. Besides the civil investigation, it is the subject of a federal criminal probe directed by the U.S. attorney’s office in Charleston.

Read the full article →

Video: Sentinel’s Thwaites Recommends United Technology: Video

August 26, 2010

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) — Christian Thwaites, chief executive officer at Sentinel Investments, talks about his investment strategy in United Technology Inc. Thwaites speaks with Pimm Fox on Bloomberg Television’s “Taking Stock.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Read the full article →

AccessKey IP Announces Resignation

August 26, 2010

ALBUQUERQUE, NM–(Marketwire – August 26, 2010) – AccessKey IP, Inc. ( PINKSHEETS : AKYI ), designer, developer and producer of advanced entertainment and communication devices, announced today the resignation of Bruce Palmer as President, CFO and Director effective immediately due to health issues.

Read the full article →

Mine Workers Tipped Off Before ‘Surprise’ Inspections, Federal Regulator Says

August 26, 2010

WASHINGTON — Some mine companies are tipping off their underground workers before federal officials make surprise inspections, an illegal practice that has become more prevalent since a West Virginia explosion killed 29 miners, the nation’s top mine official said Thursday. “We’re looking at this as a chronic problem without question,” Mine Safety and Health Administration director Joe Main told The Associated Press. “We have found enough evidence to know that we need to act to beef-up enforcement of the law to prevent this advance notice.” Main’s comments came as his agency issued a special guidance bulletin to mines around the country clarifying the ban on giving advance notice of inspections. The government has stepped up surprise inspections nationwide in the wake of the April explosion at Massey Energy’s Upper Big Branch mine in West Virginia. Some workers at the mine testified that managers found ways to tip off miners ahead of time so they could pass inspections. Massey officials have denied issuing any illegal warnings, but the company faces civil and criminal investigations. Advance notice could give miners anywhere from 10 minutes to more than an hour to hide safety problems such as improper ventilation or disabled methane monitors while inspectors make their way from the main office to locations thousands of feet underground. MSHA has already issued 28 citations for advance notice violations this year. It issued 31 for all of last year – the highest number in a decade. To combat the problem, MSHA has turned to more aggressive tactics like commandeering the phones as soon as inspectors arrive or driving up in cars the mine company won’t immediately recognize. But it’s become a dangerous cat-and-mouse game as some mines post lookouts or install infrared beams that alert them when anyone enters the property. “At some of these mines, there’s just one long dirt road where they can see you coming,” said Eddie Sparks, MSHA’s acting assistant district manager for enforcement in Barbourville, Ky. “Some of the coal truck drivers can get on the radio and call ahead before you ever get to the mine.” Sparks said that’s what happened on April 19 when inspectors drove up to Manalapan Mining Co.’s RB No. 12 mine in Harlan County, Ky. Inspectors monitoring CB radio heard truck drivers alerting the company. At another inspection the same day, MSHA officials seized control of phone lines as soon as they arrived at Left Fork Mining Co.’s Straight Creek No. 1 mine in Bell County, Ky. But Sparks said inspectors still overheard a mine employee on another phone calling down to workers to shut the belts off because inspectors were outside. “It’s a problem because there’s a lot of phones at a mine, like the guard shack and various mine offices,” Sparks said. “You can get to different phones that you try to monitor, but before you get to the other ones, they can call in ahead of you.” Both of the Kentucky cases were part of a 57-mine inspection blitz launched in the days following the April 5 Upper Big Branch disaster. The agency has targeted mines with ventilation problems, high methane levels and buildup of coal dust – factors believed to have triggered the massive explosion at Upper Big Branch. That theory was bolstered on Thursday when MSHA said a handheld meter found deep inside the Upper Big Branch detected explosive levels of methane before the blast. The meter detected 5 percent methane in the mine’s atmosphere, according to Kevin Stricklin, MSHA’s chief of coal mine safety. Carol Raulston, a spokeswoman at the National Mining Association, said MSHA’s response has been overly aggressive considering that most mines have a safe track record. “MSHA’s high public profile on this inspection technique is offensive to the vast majority of U.S. mines that are trying their best to comply with all safety requirements and to improve miner safety,” Raulston said. “The conditions we’re finding when we’re able to circumvent some of these intended advance notices are just appalling,” Main said. In some cases, ventilation curtains had been removed, miners had not removed dangerous piles of rock dust or workers were mining in areas where they were not permitted, Main said. Current law provides for up to a $1,000 fine and imprisonment up to six months for anyone giving advance notice of an inspection. A mine safety bill working its way through the House would boost the prison term up to five years and raise the fine up to $250,000 for individuals and $500,000 for corporations that knowingly give advance notice to impede an investigation. In the meantime, MSHA is working to “change the culture in the mining industry,” Main said. “Showing up when we’re least expected is a tool that’s been used and will continue to be used.” ___ Associated Press writer Tim Huber in Charleston, W.Va., contributed to this report.

Read the full article →

Number Of Underwater Mortgages Falls, Thanks To Foreclosures

August 26, 2010

LOS ANGELES — Foreclosures are helping to thin the ranks of U.S. homes with mortgages that exceed what the properties are worth, new data shows. Real estate data provider CoreLogic said Thursday there were 11 million homes with so-called underwater mortgages at the end of June. That’s down from 11.2 million at the end of March and represents the second consecutive quarterly decline. The number of underwater mortgages typically rises when home prices are falling. Foreclosures, rather than rising home prices, accounted primarily for the declines. “They basically were just flushed out of the system,” said Sam Khater, CoreLogic’s senior economist. “There is a small decline and that’s good news. The bad news is it’s occurring via foreclosures.” The higher the number of homes with underwater mortgages, the greater the probability of more defaults. In all, 23 percent of U.S. homes with mortgages were underwater at the end of June. Another 2.4 percent of homeowners with a mortgage had less than 5 percent equity in their home, making them more likely to end up underwater if home prices drop further. The total number of underwater mortgages represent roughly $2.9 trillion in mortgage debt, according to the firm. Years of falling home values combined with longtime homeowners borrowing against the equity in their home has left millions owing more on their home than its worth. When a mortgage is underwater, the homeowner often can’t qualify for mortgage refinancing and has little recourse but to continue making payments in hopes the property eventually regains its value. The slide in home prices began stabilizing last year, but prices are expected to continue falling in many markets due to still-high levels of foreclosures and near double-digit unemployment. That means homes purchased at the height of the real estate boom are unlikely to recover lost value for years. Faced with that situation, homeowners sometimes stop making payments and walk away from their homes in so-called strategic defaults. Others end up losing their homes to foreclosure because of missed payments due to job loss or medical bills. Underwater mortgages also dampen home sales, because homeowners who might otherwise sell their home refuse to take a loss or can’t get the bank to agree to a short sale – when a lender lets a borrower sell their property for less than the amount owed on the mortgage. Home sales have been weaker in areas where there are a large number of homeowners with negative equity in their home, Khater said. “Those homeowners can’t sell,” he said. “They’re trapped.” The majority of the underwater mortgages are concentrated in five states: Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Michigan and California, CoreLogic said. Among those, Nevada had the highest rate at the end of June, with 68 percent of its residential mortgages underwater. In Arizona, half of the home mortgages were underwater. In Florida, it was 46 percent. In Michigan, the rate was 38 percent, while in California it was 33 percent.

Read the full article →

Video: U.S. Stocks Fall on Spain Concern, Slowing Manufacturing: Video

August 26, 2010

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Courtney Donohoe reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. Stocks fell, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average below 10,000 for the first time in seven weeks, as concern about Spain’s fiscal stability and a slowdown in manufacturing wiped out early gains triggered by a drop in jobless claims. (Source: Bloomberg)

Read the full article →

Video: Aggarwal Sees Google Eventually Charging for Gmail Phone: Video

August 26, 2010

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) — Sandeep Aggarwal, managing director at Caris & Co., talks about the new feature on Google Inc.’s Gmail service that lets users make voice calls to a wireless or landline telephone using only a computer. Aggarwal talks with Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” Bloomberg’s Douglas MacMillan also speaks. (Source: Bloomberg)

Read the full article →

Video: RBC’s Stymiest Says Trading Fell in `Tough Market’: Video

August 26, 2010

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) — Barbara Stymiest, group head of strategy, treasury and corporate services at Royal Bank of Canada, talks with Bloomberg’s Melissa Long about the drop in the company’s trading revenue, its U.S. consumer bank and insurance businesses, and marketeting strategy in the U.S. RBC missed analysts’ estimates for the fourth straight quarter as trading revenue plunged 93 percent. The Toronto-based bank said net income fell 18 percent to C$1.28 billion ($1.21 billion) or 84 cents a share. (Source: Bloomberg)

Read the full article →

Jeff Madrick: Weak Financial Regulation Is Further Defanged

August 26, 2010

I sure hope somebody is going to notice the fine piece on the front page of Thursday’s New York Times about how easy it is to get around the Volcker rule. Remember how the Obama team that came up with its reregulation proposals seemed to push Paul Volcker aside? The former Federal Reserve chairman was supposed to be running a committee on the subject for the president, but even he let it be known no one was talking to him much. Volcker was concerned that commercial banks were using insured depositor money to make risky investments and to drive huge bonuses — and the Fed and the FDIC would be left picking up the pieces. The system should not be bearing that much risk, he wisely figured. And to be fair, he had long felt this way. After an earlier front page Times piece by Lou Uchitelle on Volcker’s concerns , Obama suddenly embraced a limitation on such trading — the Volcker rule. There were many Volcker photo ops. There would now be a ceiling on what trading could be done for the banks’ proprietary accounts — its own assets. The Dodd-Frank bill embraced the idea. Problem solved. No way, of course. The trouble is, banks have been trading for their own accounts to one degree or other for decades while making markets for their customers. In the late 1970s and early 1980s in particular, they first discovered they could generate big profits if they bought extra securities (or derivatives) at propitious times under the guise of keeping inventory to facilitate trades of their investors and corporate clients. They could also hedge their positions by selling. In truth, it wasn’t even a disguise. They gambled money, but like all market makers, they had an insider’s edge. And they made fortunes. Some of the investment bankers, in particular, loved the traders who took the big risks. Of course, occasionally, they lost big — and some of the losers made headlines. But mostly they made out like bandits. Over time, the lucrative practice was moved to the “proprietary” desks. That’s where Howie Hubler lost nine billion dollars in a mammoth mortgage transaction for Morgan Stanley, as reported by Michael Lewis in The Big Short . I was never clear why the press didn’t make more of that after Lewis divulged the unpublicized catastrophe. No one ever lost that much money on a trading desk before. Once not long ago, if you lost $200 million it was a scandal. Now Nelson Schwartz and Erich Dash have put their finger on what seemed to be hidden from view. The banks do a lot of this all the time, and they are doing it big-time again, the reporters found out. As they quote one consultant, “You can use client activity as a cover for basically anything you are doing.” And the fact is that they do, and have done so for a long time. As the Times reporters write, “For all the talk of shutting down trading desks and reassigning employees to prepare for the Volcker Rule, proprietary-style trading will probably survive, if under a different name.” So much for the Volcker rule. And the great man himself (that is, Volcker) never came to grips with this immense hole in the regulations, either. High risk on Wall Street will go on. Meantime, Sheila Bair found it necessary to argue in this week’s Financial Times that stronger capital requirements will make the financial system better — that is, help allocate capital where it is actually needed and useful. She apparently feels she has to defend higher capital requirements against influential complaints coming from the powerful financial community that they will undermine lending and raise interest rates. Yes, and regulations to limit oil spills will raise gas prices, higher wages will undermine corporate profitability and capital investment, and product safety standards will limit the number of toys parents can buy for their kids. Industry goes on and on. As if, suggests Bair, the earlier inadequate capital requirements resulted in no financial or social cost. Consider the credit crisis and the recessionary aftermath. The financial reregulation package was never strong enough, but the battle to make work even what was passed, will go on. Nothing is quite so irksome as the financial community talking about how little TARP cost taxpayers as banks paid back their bailouts. First, TARP should probably have made money, like Warren Buffett will on the money he lent Wall Street. But second, the big cost is severe and ongoing recession resulting in hundreds of billions of dollars of lower federal tax revenues for years, unemployment rates near ten percent, and weak capital spending. Let’s keep straight how much financial excess has and will continue to cost America. Cross-posted from New Deal 2.0 . Sign up for weekly ND20 highlights, mind-blowing stats, event alerts, and reading/film/music recs.

Read the full article →

CEOs’ Anti-Obama Slams: President Compared To Hitler, Mussolini & More (PHOTOS)

August 26, 2010

At the Aspen Forum this week, Intel CEO Paul Otellini blasted the Obama administration for not understanding “what it takes to create jobs.” “I think this group does not understand what it takes to create jobs,” CNET reports the CEO as saying . “And I think they’re flummoxed by their experiment in Keynesian economics not working.” Otenelli’s remarks thrust him into a growing crowd of chief executives who have publicly doubted or outright slammed the Obama administration’s economic policies. As the midterm elections approach, this powerful interest group has ramped up its attacks on the White House. And as they compare the administration to communists or to Hitler, some of America’s CEOs are starting to sound more like, well, politicians. Which comments were the most outlandish? Check them out and vote below:

Read the full article →

Video: HP Reports Revised Proposal to Buy 3Par for $27 a Share: Video

August 26, 2010

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) — Hewlett-Packard Co. said it has increased its proposal to acquire all of the outstanding shares of 3Par Inc. to $27 a share in cash, or an enterprise value of $1.8 billion. HP waging a bidding war with Dell Inc., said it would pay about $200 million more than a Dell offer of $24.30 a share from earlier today. Bloomberg’s Matt Miller reports. (Source: Bloomberg)

Read the full article →

David Isenberg: Are IPOA, BAPSC and PSCAI Complicit or Just Irrelevant?

August 26, 2010

Today we consider the work of Surabhi Ranganathan. She is a PhD Candidate, Cambridge University, a graduate of the New York University Law School and a consultant to the law school’s Institute for International Law and Justice . Earlier this year she published a paper in the Georgetown Journal of International Law title ” Between Complicity and Irrelevance? Industry Associations and the Challenge of Regulating Private Security Contractors .” Unlike numerous other law journal articles this is not another rehash of national or international laws . As she writes in her summary, “In this paper, I examine the reasons for and against giving serious consideration to the regulatory function of industry associations and engage in a critical evaluation of their claims to legitimacy, accountability and effectiveness as regulatory bodies.” It is important to note that she is not against private military and security contracting trade associations. Indeed, she thanks “Doug Brooks [founder of IPOA] for responding to many queries about industry associations.” In fact, she thinks they do have a useful role to play. In her introduction she writes: In discussing regulation of the private military and security industry, scholars and policy advocates do not ignore the role of industry associations, but they do sideline them. The focus is on regulation by states, or by an international office created by treaty, or a combination of the two. Such “formal” regulation is undeniably important. However, a preference for it is not irrational only insofar as it can be assumed that states and international offices are willing and able to effectively regulate PMSCs. This is often not the case. On several occasions states have shown themselves unwilling or unable (or both) to regulate PMSCs. An international office that can do so is far from being realized. On the other hand, several industry associations have come into being in the last few years, each with at least a partial mandate for regulation of PMSCs. It is surprising then that their regulatory potential has received little serious consideration. To date there does not exist a single analytical account of their activities. Little effort has been made to grapple with issues relating to the legitimacy of their regulatory claims, and the effectiveness and accountability of their regulatory activities. This paper aims to fill that gap. … To clarify, I do not argue that industry associations should replace formal regulation. Recognizing the importance of national and international regulation, and of plural regulatory initiatives, my paper supports three conclusions. First, industry associations are important contributors to better regulation of PMSCs. Second, even so, their claims to legitimacy, accountability and effectiveness are mixed, and differ for each association. Third, some weaknesses in such claims have to do with external factors, such as lack of state backing and negative public perception. However, there are other factors that associations themselves should address to bolster their regulatory claims. Now, some people are, to say the least, dubious about trade associations; suspicious of their advocacy of allowing greater industry self-regulation or avoiding further government regulation. I have been so myself, on various occasions, when their rhetoric does not match their actions. Given how well that has worked in other industry sectors (BP and the Minerals Management Service in the Gulf of Mexico anyone?) such suspicions are understandable. On the other hand the trade association, notably the International Peace Operations Association (IPOA), since renamed the Association of the Stability Operations Industry; the British Association of Private Security Companies (BAPSC); and even the Private Security Company Association of Iraq (PSCAI) have done some useful things, such as informing legislators what actually goes on in the PMSC world so useful policy can be made. And to their credit no trade association has ever said that they should replace national laws or regulations Still, there is good reason why state regulation of PSC should always come first. Ranganathan writes: In general, academic scholars and policy advocates prefer formal regulation of PMSCs for two reasons: PMSCs offer essential services that are traditionally expected of a state, and, often, their operations bring them into close proximity with vulnerable populations. This is especially true of conflict and post-conflict situations — the focus of this paper — where PMSCs are contracted to perform a range of functions, including guarding persons and property, providing logistical and operational support to the military, catering to requirements for food and living quarters during operations and post-conflict reconstruction; advising and training the military, and developing strategies for military operations, interrogation, and administration of prisons. Certainly, fears of human rights violations are well founded, as are concerns relating to compromises between state interests, military welfare and international stability, as a consequence of outsourcing to PMSCs. She then notes biases that may influence people’s preference for formal regulation such as a preference for “status quo,” “seriously flawed memories” “susceptibility to “informational cascades,” “availability heuristic.” and “extremeness aversion.” But she goes on to say the preference for formal regulation is not solely a product of our biases. There are two good reasons that support such preference. First, in theory, states (and international bodies) do have greater capacity to regulate PMSCs. Industry associations cannot impose criminal law sanctions upon wrongdoers. Their most stringent penalty is expulsion of a company from membership. In most cases, a state possesses greater power to investigate complaints relating to actions of PMSCs in the field. Moreover, a state is able to ban as well as otherwise regulate a PMSC in all cases where there is a territorial nexus or affiliation of nationality (of the company, or its employees), or where the state has concluded a contract with that PMSC. The jurisdiction of an international office may not even be limited by affiliations of territory or nationality. In contrast, companies may put themselves out of the reach of an industry association by simply withdrawing from membership. Second, there are valid grounds for skepticism relating to the legitimacy of the regulatory role that industry associations play. Not only are industry associations often private bodies; they are also in essence trade groups with close affinities to their member companies and dependence upon member companies for funds and for manning various administrative committees. These are reasonable bases for doubt about the depth of the regulatory commitment of industry associations and their independence from the particular interests of their member companies. Industry associations are rarely afforded express recognition or backing by states, and this undermines their efficacy. It is, undeniably, a challenge for industry associations to construct a plausible account of the legitimacy of their regulatory commitment. Ranganathan, however, does not dismiss the regulatory contribution of industry associations as unimportant. She considers them among the few extant regulatory agents and takes seriously their claims of being more plausible and effective regulators for the industry. After detailing their various contributions she finds “industry associations do seek to promote high standards of conduct among PMSCs through cooperation with formal regulatory initiatives. However, like coercive mechanisms, cooperative mechanisms also lack full implementation.” Perhaps that is because such associations have conflicting goals, which are essentially to be both advocate for and regulator of their memberships. She writes: The three industry associations are not just private bodies, they are also trade-associations with close links to their members and indeed are dependent upon members for the performance of their regulatory functions. Moreover, along with better standards of service, they aim to enhance contract opportunities for their members. These factors provide grounds for several concerns, among them: the possibility of spurious creation, or “capture,” of an association by the specific interests of some of its members; the difficulty of ensuring continued adherence of PMSCs to industry associations; and the lack of accountability to third parties affected by the activities of the industry associations. … The creation of an industry association could be an exercise on the part of its members to provide only the facade of regulatory constraints. A driving force for this exercise could be the members’ quest to differentiate themselves from business rivals. This is a pertinent concern given that two of the associations (BAPSC and PSCAI) were founded by their members. Another concern, however legitimate the creation of an association, is its potential for capture by the specific interests of one or few of its members at the cost of other members, non-member companies, or relevant third parties, such as populations in their areas of operation. In the case of the three industry associations, capture is made possible by the active participation of members in regulatory functions. For instance, Professor Michael Waller claims that the complaint against Blackwater was made to IPOA by competitors of the company, possibly to discredit it in a bid to seize its Iraq contract. Its competitors could also have participated in review of its conduct in what would clearly have been an abuse of regulatory process. Both the above situations are pernicious, for they indicate improper functioning of the concerned industry-association, even as the observers are lulled into false confidence about the regulated nature of the industry. In such cases we can hardly accept as legitimate any claim of the regulatory commitment of such an association. We thus need to examine what assurance we have that an industry association will act to accomplish the (regulatory) goals it prates. Ranganathan notes that, “Good faith consent by PMSCs to the regulatory authority of an association does not guarantee that the association can bind members effectively if provisions allow members to opt out without any prejudice to their interests, if penalties for violation are insufficient, or if the enforcement process is too weak to make a material impact. Like bona fide consent, effectiveness speaks to legitimacy of the association as well as to the popular support it is likely to enjoy.” She also examines the associations’ claims to legitimacy, accountability, and effectiveness. Although since PSCAI provides very little information she ends up primarily comparing IPOA and BAPSC. She finds that “IPOA clearly makes the strongest claim to order-based legitimacy” but that doesn’t mean there isn’t room for a lot of improvement. The following is specific to IPOA. I include it not to pick on it but since Ranganathan finds it has the strongest claims it is worth noting what she sees as its weaknesses. The contrasting structures of BAPSC and IPOA should not demand the conclusion that the latter performs its regulatory role better than the former. However, to the extent that both associations claim to regulate PMSCs, it may be said that IPOA displays greater structural commitment to do so. Even so, certain structural elements of IPOA do give rise to concern. These include the fact that a large chunk of IPOA’s budget comes from the dues paid by its member companies and that seats on several of the task-specific committees, including the membership and standards committees, may be had on a volunteer basis. The first fact could imply the need for greater scrutiny of structural and procedural safeguards that insulate IPOA from the interests of particular members, but it is the second which is really structurally flawed in the sense that it creates greater potential for “capture” of institutional processes by particular members. Determining committee positions by soliciting volunteers not only allows members to sit in judgment over other members, but to do so solely on the basis of their will instead of a more neutral process like rotation or random selection. Moreover, there are no institutional checks to prevent a member from volunteering for seats on several committees and for years in succession. Thus, EOD Technology, Inc. (“EODT”) has had representatives sitting concurrently on the Executive Committee, the Standards Committee and the Membership and Finance Committee in 2007 and 2008. In contrast, the membership criteria released by BAPSC indicate that at least the membership committee is elected by the BAPSC General Assembly. IPOA also espouses “transparency” as vital to its legitimacy. However, its own procedures are only transparent to a limited extent. On the one hand, its website, journal, annual reports, and papers by its staff provide a vast amount of information about organs, personnel, and member companies, and also the mechanisms employed to promote quality of service among member companies. Some commentators also note with approval that the IPOA takes on interns as evidence of the openness of its operations. On the other hand, this information changes rapidly — previously available documents become unavailable quickly. In addition, there are aspects of the association’s work that are not transparent. For instance, the association does not explain its membership decisions. It does not even provide a public record of the companies that had applied for membership and were refused. Possibly, this is motivated by prudential considerations, such as not deterring potential members from applying or current applicants from reapplying. The revelation that a company was refused membership could ironically also impair the image of the rest of the industry, because normally a refusal of membership would suggest that the applicant company was unwilling or unable to provide assurance of its compliance with the IPOA Code of Conduct. For an already prejudiced and non-discerning audience, this fact could smirch their perception of all PMSCs as unlikely to conform to the standards prescribed. It is understandable that IPOA is reluctant to contribute towards this adverse view of the industry. Even so, the lack of a public record raises doubts about the veracity of IPOA’s procedures. Given IPOA’s financial dependence on annual contributions from existing members, and its policy of allowing members to volunteer for a position on the membership committee, it is a matter of real concern that members may be able to hijack the selection process for new members. A membership decision in favor of an applicant may be influenced by an existing member’s interest in, or potential partnerships with, the applicant. Since the review process is not stringent in practice, a decision for refusal of membership may have been induced by members competing for business with the applicant. A controversial example is the repeated denial of membership to Aegis, information of which has leaked on to the Internet. Aegis is a founding member of BAPSC and PSCAI, though admittedly its reputation is far from spotless. Trophy videos of its personnel shooting at civilians are freely available on the Internet. Its chief executive is Tim Spicer, former manager of the notorious Sandline, Inc., which was involved in the “Arms to Africa” affair. However, it is not known whether either factor was relevant to IPOA’s decision. Aegis’s claims that it was “invited” to apply for membership each time it was refused have further obscured the facts. Similar criticisms can be made with respect to IPOA’s Enforcement Mechanism. At present, IPOA does not provide any information about complaints made to it. This is so despite the provision in the IPOA Code that in ordinary circumstances, submissions by complainants shall be deemed public. The IPOA also does not provide any public explanation for decisions of the Standards Committee or of the ad-hoc task forces. Indeed, the only occasion upon which the public may even [*362] be aware that a decision has been made is when a company has been expelled from membership, but there is no instance of this at present. Again, IPOA’s policies may be guided by the same concerns, mentioned earlier, that confidentiality is important to encourage PMSC participation in IPOA, and that making complaints against particular companies will harm the public image of the whole industry. News sources suggest that Blackwater withdrew from IPOA membership because it was afraid of damaging information leaks during the IPOA review of its conduct. However, for stakeholders affected by the actions of a PMSC, or for a state, or even for other member companies, the secrecy surrounding IPOA proceedings may detract from its espousal of due process. IPOA’s aim for its membership to be taken as certification of a PMSC’s high standards of service and belief that repudiation of membership will be a “commercial kiss of death” for the company is incongruous with the lack of transparency in its procedures, especially as there are no avenues for external review. Moreover, this aim is at odds with concerns that publicizing the action taken against one company will affect the reputation of all. While IPOA cannot on its own overcome audience prejudices, it can do more to assure the audience of the reliability of its decisions. Perhaps as a starting point, to compensate for lack of complete transparency, IPOA should introduce neutral oversight of its decision-making processes. Ranganathan believes that despite their flaws, the trade associations have an important role to play. She concludes: An exploration of the regulatory claims of the principal industry associations in the PMSC industry reveals a fairly sincere effort on the part of at least two of the associations to construct credible accounts of their legitimacy and accountability. Of course, there remain concerns about their structures and processes, responsiveness to third parties and their relationship (and fragmentation of authority) with each other. Critical questions also arise as to their actual capacity to regulate PMSCs. Although it is inaccurate to suggest that industry associations are irrelevant for this purpose, it is true that the absence of state backing limits the role that associations can play. Even so, their (actual and potential) role is both significant and distinct from the role played by states. Apart from prescribing codes of conduct, industry associations actually educate member companies about the standard of conduct expected from them, and, through a variety of mechanisms, persuade them to strive towards better performance standards. Moreover, they engage with individual companies at a micro level to identify and resolve problematic issues and assist governments at a broader level to understand PMSC operations and formulate policy. Their ability to “bind” members would improve tremendously if states were to view membership to these associations as a precondition for hiring PMSCs, or for permitting other consumers to hire PMSCs.

Read the full article →

David Isenberg: Are IPOA, BAPSC and PSCAI Complicit or Just Irrelevant?

August 26, 2010

Today we consider the work of Surabhi Ranganathan. She is a PhD Candidate, Cambridge University, a graduate of the New York University Law School and a consultant to the law school’s Institute for International Law and Justice . Earlier this year she published a paper in the Georgetown Journal of International Law title ” Between Complicity and Irrelevance? Industry Associations and the Challenge of Regulating Private Security Contractors .” Unlike numerous other law journal articles this is not another rehash of national or international laws . As she writes in her summary, “In this paper, I examine the reasons for and against giving serious consideration to the regulatory function of industry associations and engage in a critical evaluation of their claims to legitimacy, accountability and effectiveness as regulatory bodies.” It is important to note that she is not against private military and security contracting trade associations. Indeed, she thanks “Doug Brooks [founder of IPOA] for responding to many queries about industry associations.” In fact, she thinks they do have a useful role to play. In her introduction she writes: In discussing regulation of the private military and security industry, scholars and policy advocates do not ignore the role of industry associations, but they do sideline them. The focus is on regulation by states, or by an international office created by treaty, or a combination of the two. Such “formal” regulation is undeniably important. However, a preference for it is not irrational only insofar as it can be assumed that states and international offices are willing and able to effectively regulate PMSCs. This is often not the case. On several occasions states have shown themselves unwilling or unable (or both) to regulate PMSCs. An international office that can do so is far from being realized. On the other hand, several industry associations have come into being in the last few years, each with at least a partial mandate for regulation of PMSCs. It is surprising then that their regulatory potential has received little serious consideration. To date there does not exist a single analytical account of their activities. Little effort has been made to grapple with issues relating to the legitimacy of their regulatory claims, and the effectiveness and accountability of their regulatory activities. This paper aims to fill that gap. … To clarify, I do not argue that industry associations should replace formal regulation. Recognizing the importance of national and international regulation, and of plural regulatory initiatives, my paper supports three conclusions. First, industry associations are important contributors to better regulation of PMSCs. Second, even so, their claims to legitimacy, accountability and effectiveness are mixed, and differ for each association. Third, some weaknesses in such claims have to do with external factors, such as lack of state backing and negative public perception. However, there are other factors that associations themselves should address to bolster their regulatory claims. Now, some people are, to say the least, dubious about trade associations; suspicious of their advocacy of allowing greater industry self-regulation or avoiding further government regulation. I have been so myself, on various occasions, when their rhetoric does not match their actions. Given how well that has worked in other industry sectors (BP and the Minerals Management Service in the Gulf of Mexico anyone?) such suspicions are understandable. On the other hand the trade association, notably the International Peace Operations Association (IPOA), since renamed the Association of the Stability Operations Industry; the British Association of Private Security Companies (BAPSC); and even the Private Security Company Association of Iraq (PSCAI) have done some useful things, such as informing legislators what actually goes on in the PMSC world so useful policy can be made. And to their credit no trade association has ever said that they should replace national laws or regulations Still, there is good reason why state regulation of PSC should always come first. Ranganathan writes: In general, academic scholars and policy advocates prefer formal regulation of PMSCs for two reasons: PMSCs offer essential services that are traditionally expected of a state, and, often, their operations bring them into close proximity with vulnerable populations. This is especially true of conflict and post-conflict situations — the focus of this paper — where PMSCs are contracted to perform a range of functions, including guarding persons and property, providing logistical and operational support to the military, catering to requirements for food and living quarters during operations and post-conflict reconstruction; advising and training the military, and developing strategies for military operations, interrogation, and administration of prisons. Certainly, fears of human rights violations are well founded, as are concerns relating to compromises between state interests, military welfare and international stability, as a consequence of outsourcing to PMSCs. She then notes biases that may influence people’s preference for formal regulation such as a preference for “status quo,” “seriously flawed memories” “susceptibility to “informational cascades,” “availability heuristic.” and “extremeness aversion.” But she goes on to say the preference for formal regulation is not solely a product of our biases. There are two good reasons that support such preference. First, in theory, states (and international bodies) do have greater capacity to regulate PMSCs. Industry associations cannot impose criminal law sanctions upon wrongdoers. Their most stringent penalty is expulsion of a company from membership. In most cases, a state possesses greater power to investigate complaints relating to actions of PMSCs in the field. Moreover, a state is able to ban as well as otherwise regulate a PMSC in all cases where there is a territorial nexus or affiliation of nationality (of the company, or its employees), or where the state has concluded a contract with that PMSC. The jurisdiction of an international office may not even be limited by affiliations of territory or nationality. In contrast, companies may put themselves out of the reach of an industry association by simply withdrawing from membership. Second, there are valid grounds for skepticism relating to the legitimacy of the regulatory role that industry associations play. Not only are industry associations often private bodies; they are also in essence trade groups with close affinities to their member companies and dependence upon member companies for funds and for manning various administrative committees. These are reasonable bases for doubt about the depth of the regulatory commitment of industry associations and their independence from the particular interests of their member companies. Industry associations are rarely afforded express recognition or backing by states, and this undermines their efficacy. It is, undeniably, a challenge for industry associations to construct a plausible account of the legitimacy of their regulatory commitment. Ranganathan, however, does not dismiss the regulatory contribution of industry associations as unimportant. She considers them among the few extant regulatory agents and takes seriously their claims of being more plausible and effective regulators for the industry. After detailing their various contributions she finds “industry associations do seek to promote high standards of conduct among PMSCs through cooperation with formal regulatory initiatives. However, like coercive mechanisms, cooperative mechanisms also lack full implementation.” Perhaps that is because such associations have conflicting goals, which are essentially to be both advocate for and regulator of their memberships. She writes: The three industry associations are not just private bodies, they are also trade-associations with close links to their members and indeed are dependent upon members for the performance of their regulatory functions. Moreover, along with better standards of service, they aim to enhance contract opportunities for their members. These factors provide grounds for several concerns, among them: the possibility of spurious creation, or “capture,” of an association by the specific interests of some of its members; the difficulty of ensuring continued adherence of PMSCs to industry associations; and the lack of accountability to third parties affected by the activities of the industry associations. … The creation of an industry association could be an exercise on the part of its members to provide only the facade of regulatory constraints. A driving force for this exercise could be the members’ quest to differentiate themselves from business rivals. This is a pertinent concern given that two of the associations (BAPSC and PSCAI) were founded by their members. Another concern, however legitimate the creation of an association, is its potential for capture by the specific interests of one or few of its members at the cost of other members, non-member companies, or relevant third parties, such as populations in their areas of operation. In the case of the three industry associations, capture is made possible by the active participation of members in regulatory functions. For instance, Professor Michael Waller claims that the complaint against Blackwater was made to IPOA by competitors of the company, possibly to discredit it in a bid to seize its Iraq contract. Its competitors could also have participated in review of its conduct in what would clearly have been an abuse of regulatory process. Both the above situations are pernicious, for they indicate improper functioning of the concerned industry-association, even as the observers are lulled into false confidence about the regulated nature of the industry. In such cases we can hardly accept as legitimate any claim of the regulatory commitment of such an association. We thus need to examine what assurance we have that an industry association will act to accomplish the (regulatory) goals it prates. Ranganathan notes that, “Good faith consent by PMSCs to the regulatory authority of an association does not guarantee that the association can bind members effectively if provisions allow members to opt out without any prejudice to their interests, if penalties for violation are insufficient, or if the enforcement process is too weak to make a material impact. Like bona fide consent, effectiveness speaks to legitimacy of the association as well as to the popular support it is likely to enjoy.” She also examines the associations’ claims to legitimacy, accountability, and effectiveness. Although since PSCAI provides very little information she ends up primarily comparing IPOA and BAPSC. She finds that “IPOA clearly makes the strongest claim to order-based legitimacy” but that doesn’t mean there isn’t room for a lot of improvement. The following is specific to IPOA. I include it not to pick on it but since Ranganathan finds it has the strongest claims it is worth noting what she sees as its weaknesses. The contrasting structures of BAPSC and IPOA should not demand the conclusion that the latter performs its regulatory role better than the former. However, to the extent that both associations claim to regulate PMSCs, it may be said that IPOA displays greater structural commitment to do so. Even so, certain structural elements of IPOA do give rise to concern. These include the fact that a large chunk of IPOA’s budget comes from the dues paid by its member companies and that seats on several of the task-specific committees, including the membership and standards committees, may be had on a volunteer basis. The first fact could imply the need for greater scrutiny of structural and procedural safeguards that insulate IPOA from the interests of particular members, but it is the second which is really structurally flawed in the sense that it creates greater potential for “capture” of institutional processes by particular members. Determining committee positions by soliciting volunteers not only allows members to sit in judgment over other members, but to do so solely on the basis of their will instead of a more neutral process like rotation or random selection. Moreover, there are no institutional checks to prevent a member from volunteering for seats on several committees and for years in succession. Thus, EOD Technology, Inc. (“EODT”) has had representatives sitting concurrently on the Executive Committee, the Standards Committee and the Membership and Finance Committee in 2007 and 2008. In contrast, the membership criteria released by BAPSC indicate that at least the membership committee is elected by the BAPSC General Assembly. IPOA also espouses “transparency” as vital to its legitimacy. However, its own procedures are only transparent to a limited extent. On the one hand, its website, journal, annual reports, and papers by its staff provide a vast amount of information about organs, personnel, and member companies, and also the mechanisms employed to promote quality of service among member companies. Some commentators also note with approval that the IPOA takes on interns as evidence of the openness of its operations. On the other hand, this information changes rapidly — previously available documents become unavailable quickly. In addition, there are aspects of the association’s work that are not transparent. For instance, the association does not explain its membership decisions. It does not even provide a public record of the companies that had applied for membership and were refused. Possibly, this is motivated by prudential considerations, such as not deterring potential members from applying or current applicants from reapplying. The revelation that a company was refused membership could ironically also impair the image of the rest of the industry, because normally a refusal of membership would suggest that the applicant company was unwilling or unable to provide assurance of its compliance with the IPOA Code of Conduct. For an already prejudiced and non-discerning audience, this fact could smirch their perception of all PMSCs as unlikely to conform to the standards prescribed. It is understandable that IPOA is reluctant to contribute towards this adverse view of the industry. Even so, the lack of a public record raises doubts about the veracity of IPOA’s procedures. Given IPOA’s financial dependence on annual contributions from existing members, and its policy of allowing members to volunteer for a position on the membership committee, it is a matter of real concern that members may be able to hijack the selection process for new members. A membership decision in favor of an applicant may be influenced by an existing member’s interest in, or potential partnerships with, the applicant. Since the review process is not stringent in practice, a decision for refusal of membership may have been induced by members competing for business with the applicant. A controversial example is the repeated denial of membership to Aegis, information of which has leaked on to the Internet. Aegis is a founding member of BAPSC and PSCAI, though admittedly its reputation is far from spotless. Trophy videos of its personnel shooting at civilians are freely available on the Internet. Its chief executive is Tim Spicer, former manager of the notorious Sandline, Inc., which was involved in the “Arms to Africa” affair. However, it is not known whether either factor was relevant to IPOA’s decision. Aegis’s claims that it was “invited” to apply for membership each time it was refused have further obscured the facts. Similar criticisms can be made with respect to IPOA’s Enforcement Mechanism. At present, IPOA does not provide any information about complaints made to it. This is so despite the provision in the IPOA Code that in ordinary circumstances, submissions by complainants shall be deemed public. The IPOA also does not provide any public explanation for decisions of the Standards Committee or of the ad-hoc task forces. Indeed, the only occasion upon which the public may even [*362] be aware that a decision has been made is when a company has been expelled from membership, but there is no instance of this at present. Again, IPOA’s policies may be guided by the same concerns, mentioned earlier, that confidentiality is important to encourage PMSC participation in IPOA, and that making complaints against particular companies will harm the public image of the whole industry. News sources suggest that Blackwater withdrew from IPOA membership because it was afraid of damaging information leaks during the IPOA review of its conduct. However, for stakeholders affected by the actions of a PMSC, or for a state, or even for other member companies, the secrecy surrounding IPOA proceedings may detract from its espousal of due process. IPOA’s aim for its membership to be taken as certification of a PMSC’s high standards of service and belief that repudiation of membership will be a “commercial kiss of death” for the company is incongruous with the lack of transparency in its procedures, especially as there are no avenues for external review. Moreover, this aim is at odds with concerns that publicizing the action taken against one company will affect the reputation of all. While IPOA cannot on its own overcome audience prejudices, it can do more to assure the audience of the reliability of its decisions. Perhaps as a starting point, to compensate for lack of complete transparency, IPOA should introduce neutral oversight of its decision-making processes. Ranganathan believes that despite their flaws, the trade associations have an important role to play. She concludes: An exploration of the regulatory claims of the principal industry associations in the PMSC industry reveals a fairly sincere effort on the part of at least two of the associations to construct credible accounts of their legitimacy and accountability. Of course, there remain concerns about their structures and processes, responsiveness to third parties and their relationship (and fragmentation of authority) with each other. Critical questions also arise as to their actual capacity to regulate PMSCs. Although it is inaccurate to suggest that industry associations are irrelevant for this purpose, it is true that the absence of state backing limits the role that associations can play. Even so, their (actual and potential) role is both significant and distinct from the role played by states. Apart from prescribing codes of conduct, industry associations actually educate member companies about the standard of conduct expected from them, and, through a variety of mechanisms, persuade them to strive towards better performance standards. Moreover, they engage with individual companies at a micro level to identify and resolve problematic issues and assist governments at a broader level to understand PMSC operations and formulate policy. Their ability to “bind” members would improve tremendously if states were to view membership to these associations as a precondition for hiring PMSCs, or for permitting other consumers to hire PMSCs.

Read the full article →

Video: Delphi’s Black Discusses Obama Economic Policy, Stimulus: Video

August 26, 2010

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) — Scott Black, president of Delphi Management Inc., talks about the Obama administration’s economic policies and stimulus package. He talks with Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (This is an excerpt of the full interview. Source: Bloomberg)

Read the full article →

Real Estate Slumping: No New McMansions Sold in July

August 26, 2010

As David Rosenberg, the presciently bearish chief economist and strategist at Canadian asset manager Gluskin Sheff told clients Thursday: “The high-end market, in particular, is under tremendous pressure. In fact, it is becoming non-existent.”

Read the full article →

Real Estate Slumping: No New McMansions Sold in July

August 26, 2010

As David Rosenberg, the presciently bearish chief economist and strategist at Canadian asset manager Gluskin Sheff told clients Thursday: “The high-end market, in particular, is under tremendous pressure. In fact, it is becoming non-existent.”

Read the full article →

Art Levine: Beyond Messaging: Obama’s Path to Jump Starting the Economy Without Congress

August 26, 2010

The rising jobless claims and skidding home sales make the Democrats’ selling job this November even tougher . But, cowed by deficit hawks, neither the Obama administration or Congress has shown an appetite for passing the sort of large-scale job creation packages that could make a difference in the ongoing jobless crisis . As the Washington Post observed this week, “A rapidly weakening economy threatens to undermine President Obama’s assertion that he has set the nation on a path to prosperity and, with barely two months until congressional midterm elections, Democrats find themselves with few options for reviving the faltering recovery. ” But the American Prospect and the progressive policy center Demos released a special report this week, to be featured in the magazine’s next issue, that could offer some short-term and long-term help by using the power of government agencies and contracts. These under-used strategies could be put into effect without needing to thread the needle of centrist Democrats and obstructionist Republicans in the Senate. As Robert Kuttner points out in the lead essay to this report, “The Case for Presidential Action,” that also features In These Times writer David Moberg, “The U.S. government spends half a trillion dollars a year to buy goods and services from the private sector. Federal procurement, directly or indirectly, influences about one job in four in the entire economy. And most most large national companies do business with the government,” including service and manufacturing companies that pay their workers relatively low wages, thwart unions and deny benefits. During a conference call this week on the report (hat tip to Campus Progress), experts pointed out: It seems Congress has given the administration the power to place conditions on those contracts–and the courts have backed them up. Ann O’Leary, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress (CAP) senior fellow, notes that “This authority has been used by many presidents for many years.” If these aggressive enforcement and standards-raising actions were combined with effective messaging to scare the hell out of progressives and centrists over the prospect of a GOP and John Boehner take-over, it could conceivably make a difference — although time is running out before November. In his article, “Sweatshop Army: Why does the Pentagon use low-road companies to feed and clothe out troops?,” David Moberg points to the Wornick Company of Cleveland that pays its mostly immigrant work force less than $10 an hour, making it impossible for them to afford the company’s minimum health care plan. “Unfortunately,” Moberg says, “all too often the work on military contracts is ill-paid and abusive, just as it as at Wornick, and not an expression of government’s stated social policy, such as the 1935 Wagner Act’s commitment to encourage collective bargaining.” But more than just raising those contract workers could make a difference. As Demos summarized the authors and their key reform points: Harold Meyerson on the misclassification of regular workers as temporary or contract employees, and the potential impact of a high-profile and systematic enforcement effort targeted at the large companies that employee them. David Moberg on Pentagon contractors that are notorious low-wage employers, and why there is a national security case for government to set and enforce labor standards in defense contracting. This piece looks specifically at the principal contractors producing MREs and military uniforms. David Bensman, Professor of Labor Studies and Employment Relationships at Rutgers University, on federal reclassification of transportation workers and reforming US ports by modernizing safety systems and requiring trucker certification. Steve Franklin on how the Department of Agriculture, which spends upwards of800 million on produce for the school lunch program, can extend bargaining rights to farm workers and sponsor a bill of rights that includes access to sanitary facilities, clean water, and decent housing. Jan Breidenbach on making sure that government-sponsored green housing jobs, which includes the installation of solar panels and retrofitting homes, are high-wage jobs. And others on paying childcare workers a decent wage, insisting on high- quality manufacturing jobs, and the broad social and economic benefits of a high-wage workforce . As a St. Petersburg Times columnist observes: What can be done to undo the damage without legislative action, since Republicans will oppose anything proworker? Kuttner suggests that the most consequential immediate action Obama could take is to start using government’s buying power to reward good labor practices. It must be big-time, governmentwide, and high-profile. One in every four jobs in the economy is influenced by federal procurement, whether it’s foodstuffs for the military or Medicaid payments to nursing homes. Jobs in these industries could be transformed tomorrow if contracts were awarded only to employers who paid living wages, provided benefits, respected labor laws and didn’t interfere with unionizing. As Congress fights over tax breaks for millionaires, the administration could be changing the economic prospects of millions of low-skilled workers. Boosting pay and working conditions for, say, nursing home workers under new Medicaid rules could provide real hope to working poor parents. Yet in the political battles in the run up to the November, the upset victories of some Tea Party candidates in the GOP primaries are adding to the fears of some in the Democratic Party that a mobilized conservative base could trump Democratic arguments that the economy would be worse under the GOP. As Politico reports: Top Democrats are growing markedly more pessimistic about holding the House, privately conceding that the summertime economic and political recovery they were banking on will not likely materialize by Election Day. In conversations with more than two dozen party insiders, most of whom requested anonymity to speak candidly about the state of play, Democrats in and out of Washington say they are increasingly alarmed about the economic and polling data they have seen in recent weeks. They no longer believe the jobs and housing markets will recover — or that anything resembling the White House’s promise of a “recovery summer” is under way. They are even more concerned by indications that House Democrats once considered safe — such as Rep. Betty Sutton, who occupies an Ohio seat that President Barack Obama won with 57 percent of the vote in 2008 — are in real trouble. In two close races, endangered Democrats are even running ads touting how they oppose their leadership. “Democrats kept thinking: ‘We’re going to get better. We’re going to get well before the election,’” said one of Washington’s best-connected Democrats. “But as of this week, you now have people saying that Republicans are going to win the House. And now it’s starting to look like the Senate is going to be a lot closer than people thought.” But some progressives and Democrats are hoping that a more effective message — focusing on part on the consequences of Rep. John Boehner becoming Speaker of the House — might help mobilize voters to resist the upsurge in conservative-driven anger and keep enough Democrats in office. As Washington Post blogger Greg Sargent notes: There’s a reason the White House and Dems are throwing everything they have at John Boehner’s speech attacking Obama’s economic policies: Dems and White House advisers know they must not allow Boehner and the GOP to achieve a clean relaunch of their party and their ideas heading into the midterms. The big underlying fight right now is over whether Republicans will succeed in rebranding themselves, achieving separation from Bush and the party that ran Congress before the Dem takeover, or whether Dems will successfully convince the electorate that a vote for the GOP is a vote for the party that brought our economy to the edge of doom. So the White House is circulating a new set of talking points instructing Dems on the Hill and outside allies to reiterate these ideas: In a speech in Cleveland [this week], House Minority Leader John Boehner laid out Congressional Republicans’ economic dream. Their prescription for the future = the same policies that led to the worst recession since the Great Depression. They want more tax breaks for the rich, less oversight of Wall Street, and a tougher burden for middle-class families… Representative Boehner is ignoring his party’s own record, and he’s hoping that American families will, too. In the eight years before the Obama Administration took office, the Republican Leadership took the record surplus and turned it into a record $1.3 trillion deficit. Their irresponsible policies helped to create the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, resulting in 22 months straight of job losses across America. Faced with these grim economic numbers, what can Democrats do now to save Congress? A progress writer at Daily Kos, writing under the name Meteor Blades, has some sound suggestions worth considering: To effectively put the Republicans on the defensive, the administration needs more than a message of the-economy-would-be-a-whole-lot-worse if-these-guys-had-been-in-power, even though that assessment is absolutely true. To this end, combined with a thorough thrashing of the GOP for its devil-take-the-hindmost policies, shortly after Labor Day, the administration should present basic elements of a new economic program for the next two years. It should be a program emphasizing our acute emergency, of course. But it should also lay the foundation for resolving some of the chronic problems that helped generate the emergency. That means, as so many critics have said, new approaches to trade, industrial policy, off-shoring, wage stagnation and arbitrage, and regulation. It should also look even deeper, how to deal with people’s needs for economic security in a world in which automation and other productivity-enhancing changes make the old job paradigm obsolete. No way, obviously, can reforms in all those areas be achieved in a mere two years, but a start can be made, a direction laid out. Such an economic program ought also to boast one big project, not just a flashy eye-catcher, but something practical, job-generating and an investment in the future. Replacing all our coal plants with clean-energy sources over a decade would be one possible choice with multiple benefits. But there are others. In the immediate future, these two messages could reinvigorate voters whose enthusiasm for keeping the Party of No out of office has waned during the past few months. Together, they would provide inspiring talking points to activists in the phone-bank and door-to-door trenches for their use in persuading Americans that staying at home, or choosing Republican candidates, will worsen the economic situation. But a far-sighted economic program must ultimately be about something far more important than merely winning an election. Yet given the cautionary tone and policies of the administration so far, even in the face of a continuing economic crisis and looming political disaster, it’s not at all clear such aggressive steps will be taken. UPDATE : There’s mounting evidence, according to the Congressional Budget Office, that President Obama’s stimulus package has had a positive impact on saving and creating millions of jobs. But it’s also transforming the economy, as a new Time magazine article highlights (hat tip to the Daily Beast )—but that reality hasn’t been translated into effective political salesmanship yet. ******************** This article originally appeared in the Working In These Times blog.

Read the full article →

Art Levine: Beyond Messaging: Obama’s Path to Jump Starting the Economy Without Congress

August 26, 2010

The rising jobless claims and skidding home sales make the Democrats’ selling job this November even tougher . But, cowed by deficit hawks, neither the Obama administration or Congress has shown an appetite for passing the sort of large-scale job creation packages that could make a difference in the ongoing jobless crisis . As the Washington Post observed this week, “A rapidly weakening economy threatens to undermine President Obama’s assertion that he has set the nation on a path to prosperity and, with barely two months until congressional midterm elections, Democrats find themselves with few options for reviving the faltering recovery. ” But the American Prospect and the progressive policy center Demos released a special report this week, to be featured in the magazine’s next issue, that could offer some short-term and long-term help by using the power of government agencies and contracts. These under-used strategies could be put into effect without needing to thread the needle of centrist Democrats and obstructionist Republicans in the Senate. As Robert Kuttner points out in the lead essay to this report, “The Case for Presidential Action,” that also features In These Times writer David Moberg, “The U.S. government spends half a trillion dollars a year to buy goods and services from the private sector. Federal procurement, directly or indirectly, influences about one job in four in the entire economy. And most most large national companies do business with the government,” including service and manufacturing companies that pay their workers relatively low wages, thwart unions and deny benefits. During a conference call this week on the report (hat tip to Campus Progress), experts pointed out: It seems Congress has given the administration the power to place conditions on those contracts–and the courts have backed them up. Ann O’Leary, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress (CAP) senior fellow, notes that “This authority has been used by many presidents for many years.” If these aggressive enforcement and standards-raising actions were combined with effective messaging to scare the hell out of progressives and centrists over the prospect of a GOP and John Boehner take-over, it could conceivably make a difference — although time is running out before November. In his article, “Sweatshop Army: Why does the Pentagon use low-road companies to feed and clothe out troops?,” David Moberg points to the Wornick Company of Cleveland that pays its mostly immigrant work force less than $10 an hour, making it impossible for them to afford the company’s minimum health care plan. “Unfortunately,” Moberg says, “all too often the work on military contracts is ill-paid and abusive, just as it as at Wornick, and not an expression of government’s stated social policy, such as the 1935 Wagner Act’s commitment to encourage collective bargaining.” But more than just raising those contract workers could make a difference. As Demos summarized the authors and their key reform points: Harold Meyerson on the misclassification of regular workers as temporary or contract employees, and the potential impact of a high-profile and systematic enforcement effort targeted at the large companies that employee them. David Moberg on Pentagon contractors that are notorious low-wage employers, and why there is a national security case for government to set and enforce labor standards in defense contracting. This piece looks specifically at the principal contractors producing MREs and military uniforms. David Bensman, Professor of Labor Studies and Employment Relationships at Rutgers University, on federal reclassification of transportation workers and reforming US ports by modernizing safety systems and requiring trucker certification. Steve Franklin on how the Department of Agriculture, which spends upwards of800 million on produce for the school lunch program, can extend bargaining rights to farm workers and sponsor a bill of rights that includes access to sanitary facilities, clean water, and decent housing. Jan Breidenbach on making sure that government-sponsored green housing jobs, which includes the installation of solar panels and retrofitting homes, are high-wage jobs. And others on paying childcare workers a decent wage, insisting on high- quality manufacturing jobs, and the broad social and economic benefits of a high-wage workforce . As a St. Petersburg Times columnist observes: What can be done to undo the damage without legislative action, since Republicans will oppose anything proworker? Kuttner suggests that the most consequential immediate action Obama could take is to start using government’s buying power to reward good labor practices. It must be big-time, governmentwide, and high-profile. One in every four jobs in the economy is influenced by federal procurement, whether it’s foodstuffs for the military or Medicaid payments to nursing homes. Jobs in these industries could be transformed tomorrow if contracts were awarded only to employers who paid living wages, provided benefits, respected labor laws and didn’t interfere with unionizing. As Congress fights over tax breaks for millionaires, the administration could be changing the economic prospects of millions of low-skilled workers. Boosting pay and working conditions for, say, nursing home workers under new Medicaid rules could provide real hope to working poor parents. Yet in the political battles in the run up to the November, the upset victories of some Tea Party candidates in the GOP primaries are adding to the fears of some in the Democratic Party that a mobilized conservative base could trump Democratic arguments that the economy would be worse under the GOP. As Politico reports: Top Democrats are growing markedly more pessimistic about holding the House, privately conceding that the summertime economic and political recovery they were banking on will not likely materialize by Election Day. In conversations with more than two dozen party insiders, most of whom requested anonymity to speak candidly about the state of play, Democrats in and out of Washington say they are increasingly alarmed about the economic and polling data they have seen in recent weeks. They no longer believe the jobs and housing markets will recover — or that anything resembling the White House’s promise of a “recovery summer” is under way. They are even more concerned by indications that House Democrats once considered safe — such as Rep. Betty Sutton, who occupies an Ohio seat that President Barack Obama won with 57 percent of the vote in 2008 — are in real trouble. In two close races, endangered Democrats are even running ads touting how they oppose their leadership. “Democrats kept thinking: ‘We’re going to get better. We’re going to get well before the election,’” said one of Washington’s best-connected Democrats. “But as of this week, you now have people saying that Republicans are going to win the House. And now it’s starting to look like the Senate is going to be a lot closer than people thought.” But some progressives and Democrats are hoping that a more effective message — focusing on part on the consequences of Rep. John Boehner becoming Speaker of the House — might help mobilize voters to resist the upsurge in conservative-driven anger and keep enough Democrats in office. As Washington Post blogger Greg Sargent notes: There’s a reason the White House and Dems are throwing everything they have at John Boehner’s speech attacking Obama’s economic policies: Dems and White House advisers know they must not allow Boehner and the GOP to achieve a clean relaunch of their party and their ideas heading into the midterms. The big underlying fight right now is over whether Republicans will succeed in rebranding themselves, achieving separation from Bush and the party that ran Congress before the Dem takeover, or whether Dems will successfully convince the electorate that a vote for the GOP is a vote for the party that brought our economy to the edge of doom. So the White House is circulating a new set of talking points instructing Dems on the Hill and outside allies to reiterate these ideas: In a speech in Cleveland [this week], House Minority Leader John Boehner laid out Congressional Republicans’ economic dream. Their prescription for the future = the same policies that led to the worst recession since the Great Depression. They want more tax breaks for the rich, less oversight of Wall Street, and a tougher burden for middle-class families… Representative Boehner is ignoring his party’s own record, and he’s hoping that American families will, too. In the eight years before the Obama Administration took office, the Republican Leadership took the record surplus and turned it into a record $1.3 trillion deficit. Their irresponsible policies helped to create the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, resulting in 22 months straight of job losses across America. Faced with these grim economic numbers, what can Democrats do now to save Congress? A progress writer at Daily Kos, writing under the name Meteor Blades, has some sound suggestions worth considering: To effectively put the Republicans on the defensive, the administration needs more than a message of the-economy-would-be-a-whole-lot-worse if-these-guys-had-been-in-power, even though that assessment is absolutely true. To this end, combined with a thorough thrashing of the GOP for its devil-take-the-hindmost policies, shortly after Labor Day, the administration should present basic elements of a new economic program for the next two years. It should be a program emphasizing our acute emergency, of course. But it should also lay the foundation for resolving some of the chronic problems that helped generate the emergency. That means, as so many critics have said, new approaches to trade, industrial policy, off-shoring, wage stagnation and arbitrage, and regulation. It should also look even deeper, how to deal with people’s needs for economic security in a world in which automation and other productivity-enhancing changes make the old job paradigm obsolete. No way, obviously, can reforms in all those areas be achieved in a mere two years, but a start can be made, a direction laid out. Such an economic program ought also to boast one big project, not just a flashy eye-catcher, but something practical, job-generating and an investment in the future. Replacing all our coal plants with clean-energy sources over a decade would be one possible choice with multiple benefits. But there are others. In the immediate future, these two messages could reinvigorate voters whose enthusiasm for keeping the Party of No out of office has waned during the past few months. Together, they would provide inspiring talking points to activists in the phone-bank and door-to-door trenches for their use in persuading Americans that staying at home, or choosing Republican candidates, will worsen the economic situation. But a far-sighted economic program must ultimately be about something far more important than merely winning an election. Yet given the cautionary tone and policies of the administration so far, even in the face of a continuing economic crisis and looming political disaster, it’s not at all clear such aggressive steps will be taken. UPDATE : There’s mounting evidence, according to the Congressional Budget Office, that President Obama’s stimulus package has had a positive impact on saving and creating millions of jobs. But it’s also transforming the economy, as a new Time magazine article highlights (hat tip to the Daily Beast )—but that reality hasn’t been translated into effective political salesmanship yet. ******************** This article originally appeared in the Working In These Times blog.

Read the full article →

Garmin GPS Recall: Everything You Need To Know About The Nuvi Recall

August 26, 2010

NEW YORK – Garmin Ltd. said Wednesday it is recalling roughly 1.3 million Nuvi GPS devices worldwide because their batteries have the potential to overheat and create a fire hazard. About 796,000 of the GPS units were sold in the U.S. Garmin said that certain batteries provided by a separate company have overheated in some Nuvi models. The company said it has identified fewer than 10 cases of overheating, none of which produced any property damage or injury. Garmin said the battery supplier has agreed to share the cost of replacing the battery packs and that the recall will not have a material affect on its financial results. According to Garmin , the defective Nuvi GPS include those with the following model numbers: 200W, 250W, 260W, and the Nuvi 7XX (where xx is a two-digit number). The Nuvi model number is located on the label on the back or bottom of the GPS device. It said owners should not attempt to remove or service the battery on their own, and asked that any affected unit be taken to a Garmin-authorized facility. Garmin shares fell by a penny to $26.54 in late morning trading. Online: Nuvi owners were directed to this address to see if their device has been recalled. http://www.garmin.com/nuvibatterypcbrecall

Read the full article →

Inder Sidhu: Decisions without Tradeoffs

August 26, 2010

A decade ago, I learned an invaluable lesson that serves me to this day: we have to make tough decisions, but we don’t have to make tradeoffs. I work for Cisco, the world’s largest maker of networking communications equipment. Early in my career, I was tasked to re-write 800 lapsed dealer contracts. Unfortunately, each was put together individually, complete with different terms and conditions. My mission: standardize the documents so Cisco could develop consistent plans and policies for working with thousands of business partners. Some days I wondered if rewriting the tax code would have been easier. But I stuck with it. The biggest challenge I grappled with wasn’t accommodating special, one-off demands, but trying to protect Cisco’s interests while preserving partner profitability. Initially, I approached the challenge as though the two objectives were in conflict. But the more I worked through the fine details, I realized that they were actually complementary. Cisco needed to protect its interests, but it also needed to have happy, profitable partners, too. That’s when it hit me: my job was to make decisions, but not to make poor tradeoffs. All these years later, I still approach business challenges with the same dual mindset. Yet all around me, I see people going another direction. When faced with a strategic decision, they often choose one option and abandon the other. They focus on innovation and new business models at the expense of core businesses or vice versa. They stress discipline and sacrifice flexibility. Or they focus on customers and ignore partners. In some instances, the consequences can be devastating. BP, for example, shut off fire alarms and drilled after leaks were discovered at the Deepwater Horizon well. In addition to the 11 lives lost and the untold environmental damage, the decision to trade safety for productivity cost BP more than $4 billion in cleanup and containment expenses, and more than $100 billion in market capitalization. Does anyone really think that was a smart tradeoff? No. And yet companies make poor tradeoffs all the time. Some are the result of split-second decisions, while others are the product of careful and deliberate thinking. Take Dell Computer, for example. Dell is a true marvel when it comes to operational excellence and efficiency. For its efforts to create the world’s most efficient supply chain, it climbed to the No. 1 spot in worldwide PC sales in 2001. But this decision to emphasize optimization over reinvention caught up with the company just a few years later when HP, Apple and others exceeded Dell in innovation. That led to a reversal in fortune. When HP surpassed Dell in PC sales, the company sacked its CEO and began a painful reorganization and reprioritization of the business. Could things have turned out for Dell had it pursued both optimizing and reinventing simultaneously? I certainly believe so. In industries as diverse as heavy machinery and pharmaceuticals, there are plenty of examples of companies that have benefitted from avoiding poor tradeoffs. Take drug maker Novartis, which benefits from doing well and doing good both. In terms of performance, Novartis is producing results above the norm: Despite the global downturn, its sales grew 7 percent in 2009 to $44.3 billion. Net income grew even more (8 percent) and reached $10.3 billion–the highest in the company’s history. In addition to doing well, the company has a long history of doing good, too. Among other things, it has donated money, drugs and other assistance to humanitarian causes. After the devastating earthquake struck Haiti in January, for example, Novartis immediately pledged $2.5 million in assistance. In addition to these efforts, Novarits does good by committing to develop drugs to fight diseases other companies ignore. Doing so has not only resulted in breakthroughs for under-served patients, but also produced new financial opportunities for the company, too. Novartis’ drug Ilaris, for example, was originally developed for people with rare rashes and fevers. Now, it is helping people who suffer with gout. When I think of my own experiences, I recall many examples of deciding to avoid tradeoffs–and benefiting as a result. Take Cisco’s efforts in emerging market economies. Initially, Cisco tried doing business in Latin America, Eastern Europe and Africa with strategies devised for more mature markets. It did so to streamline efficiency and increase standardization. But emerging countries move at different speeds than more established nations, and have different needs and priorities, too. So rather than force-fit plans crafted for one part of the world onto another, Cisco created an entirely new geographic region devoted solely to emerging countries. The region has its own management, go-to-market strategies and objectives. Later, Cisco assigned executives at headquarters to help bolster efforts in the field. I personally co-led a cross-functional team tasked with galvanizing the company’s energy, securing resources and setting the strategy in emerging countries. That led me to Mexico, where I met with Alejandro Burillo Azcárraga, chairman of Grupo Pegaso. He became so enamored by our TelePresence technology that he asked for systems at his home in Vail, Colorado, his office in Mexico City, and even on his yacht. This relationship would not likely have been established under the old way Cisco did business in Latin America. But because the company understood that it needed a different strategy for the emerging world than it had for the established world, new opportunities arose. It takes an effort to see difficult decisions as an opportunity to improve on two divergent vectors. A simple compromise is almost always easier. Rarely however, does it produce the gains that avoiding a tradeoff can. Rather than deciding between one thing or the other, I suggest doing both instead. Inder Sidhu is the Senior Vice President of Strategy & Planning for Worldwide Operations at Cisco , and the author of Doing Both: How Cisco Captures Today’s Profits and Drives Tomorrow’s Growth . Follow Inder on Twitter at @indersidhu .

Read the full article →

Toyota Recalls 1.1 Million Corollas, Matrixes

August 26, 2010

NEW YORK — Toyota recalled 1.33 million Corolla sedans and Matrix hatchbacks in the U.S. and Canada Thursday because their engines may stall, the latest in a string of quality problems at the Japanese automaker. The recall covers vehicles from the 2005-2008 model years sold in the U.S. and Canada. Three accidents and one minor injury have been reported, though Toyota said a link to the engine issue has not been confirmed. Toyota’s latest recall is one of its largest since it began recalling cars and trucks last October. The automaker has now recalled more than 10 million vehicles worldwide for problems that run from faulty gas pedals and floor mats that can trap accelerators, to problems with its Prius hybrid. Toyota said Corollas and Matrixes equipped with 1ZZ-FE engines may contain a defective engine control module, the computer that regulates the performance of the engine. In some cases, a crack may develop on the module’s circuit board, which could prevent the engine from starting or could cause harsh shifting or an engine stall. Separately, General Motors Co. is recalling 200,000 Pontiac Vibes in North America due to the same problem, GM spokesman Alan Adler said. The Vibe is similar to the Matrix and was built under a joint venture between Toyota and GM at a now-closed factory in Fremont, Calif. Both automakers said they will replace the engine control modules on the recalled vehicles at no charge. The companies will begin mailing notifications to owners of the affected vehicles in mid-September. The engine control module with the possible defect was manufactured by Delphi Corp., a large auto parts supplier headquartered in Troy, Mich., according to documents filed with federal regulators. The automaker has been more aggressive in its pace of recalls in recent months. Its last recall was in late July, when the automaker said it would fix half a million cars, mostly Toyota Avalon sedans, over a steering issue. U.S. regulators hit Toyota with a $16.4 million fine earlier this year for failing to promptly tell the government about its car defects. Toyota has been working to overhaul its quality controls and respond more aggressively to customer complaints in the fallout of its recall crisis. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has been investigating the possibility of engine stalling in the Corolla and Matrix models since late November. On Tuesday, the traffic safety agency said it had intensified its investigation. NHTSA spokeswoman Olivia Alair said Thursday that the probe is ongoing. Toyota spokesman John Hanson said the automaker is cooperating with the safety agency on the probe. He said it was the automaker’s decision to issue the recall, adding it was not pressured by NHTSA to do so. U.S.-traded shares in Toyota Motor Corp. fell 34 cents to $68.72. ___ AP Autos Writer Stephen Manning contributed to this report from Washington.

Read the full article →

Karen Mills: SBA Disaster Assistance: Then and Now

August 26, 2010

Tommy and Maria DeLaune are a prime example of small business owners who suffered a one-two punch from Hurricane Katrina and the Deepwater BP oil spill. They run Tommy’s Seafood, a New Orleans seafood processor and wholesaler that employs about 20 people. When Hurricane Katrina hit, the business suffered major damage at its two facilities, including loss of equipment and inventory. They applied for an SBA disaster loan in October 2005 but didn’t get approved until May 2006 and the loan wasn’t fully disbursed until October 2006, a year later. They got hit again when the oil spill forced closures on fishing waters in the Gulf of Mexico, where their suppliers work. Tommy and his wife Maria had to look 500 miles away to find more seafood to process, so they had higher expenses and lower profit margins. This time around, however, their experience with SBA was “amazing,” according to Maria. Their disaster loan was approved in just 16 days and it was fully disbursed just a month later. Additionally, SBA deferred their existing Katrina loan for 12 months so they can use more of their resources to deal with the financial strain caused by the oil spill. Right now, hundreds of SBA staff are on the ground providing assistance through loans to business owners, homeowners, and renters in more than 40 locations across the country that have been hit by disasters. SBA’s disaster loan programs are a critical piece of the federal government’s overall response in the wake of disasters, and we are providing these loans more quickly and effectively than ever before. As we approach the five-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, it is important to look back and take note of the agency’s performance at that time. SBA was not prepared, nor fully equipped to effectively provide assistance in the wake of that disaster. But we’ve learned from our mistakes and, today, we have a much better disaster assistance program in place with increased staff, improved technology and training, and a streamlined loan process. What does that mean in real terms? It means we reduced the average processing time for disaster loans from over 70 days to just 10 days. It means we created a way for disaster victims to apply online for loans, and now 30% of applicants choose to use this method. It means we dramatically increased the capacity of our disaster loan processing centers (from 366 to 1,750 workstations) and our disaster credit management system (from 800 up to 10,000 users at the same time). It means we increased the number of SBA disaster staff from 800 to 1,200. Additionally, we have more than 1,500 active reserve and 500 ready reserve on call when needed. And, it’s important to note that in our last annual survey, 83 percent of the active reservists and 63 percent of the ready reservists said they were available to be deployed with 48 hours notice. The overhaul of the SBA disaster assistance program since Katrina has resulted in vast improvements that are helping us and our federal partners meet the needs of disaster victims more quickly than ever – helping people like Tommy and Maria DeLaune. Everyone at SBA remains committed to continuing to improve and strengthen this critical program. We know that it can – and is – making the difference in local communities across the country, helping families get back in their homes and helping businesses put employees back to work. Read more from the Hurricane Katrina: 5 Years of Remembering & Rebuilding series . This post originally appeared at The White House Blog .

Read the full article →

Video: New Jersey’s Christie Favors Budget Cuts Over New Taxes: Video

August 26, 2010

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) — New Jersey Governor Chris Christie talks with Bloomberg’s Dunstan McNichol, Peter Coy, William Glasgall and Daniel Hertzberg about the state’s budget, tax policy and challenges. (Excerpts. Source: Bloomberg)

Read the full article →

Video: New Jersey’s Christie Favors Budget Cuts Over New Taxes: Video

August 26, 2010

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) — New Jersey Governor Chris Christie talks with Bloomberg’s Dunstan McNichol, Peter Coy, William Glasgall and Daniel Hertzberg about the state’s budget, tax policy and challenges. (Excerpts. Source: Bloomberg)

Read the full article →

Olivier Blanchard: A Problem Shared Is a Problem Halved: The G-20′s "Mutual Assessment Process"

August 26, 2010

The Group of Twenty industrialized and emerging market economies (G-20) has broken new ground over the past year or two. It has embraced the type of collaborative approach to policy design and review that is well suited to today’s interdependent world, where policies in one country can often have far-reaching effects on others. Collective action by the G-20 in response to the recent crisis was critical in avoiding a catastrophic financial meltdown and a potential second Great Depression. Exceptional policy responses around the globe–including macroeconomic stimulus and financial sector intervention–indeed helped avoid the worst. These actions were notable, both for their scale and force, but also for their consistency and coherence. Keen to build on this success, G-20 Leaders pledged at their 2009 Pittsburgh Summit to adopt policies that would ensure a lasting recovery and a brighter economic future. To meet this goal, they launched the “Framework for Strong, Sustainable, and Balanced Growth.” The backbone of this framework is a multilateral process, where G-20 countries together set out objectives and the policies needed to get there. And, most importantly, they undertake a “mutual assessment” of their progress toward meeting those shared objectives. With this, the G-20 Mutual Assessment Process or the “MAP” was born. But, what exactly will the G-20 Framework imply in terms of prospective actions? And what have we learned so far from the MAP? The MAP–led and owned by the G-20 The MAP is a new approach to policy collaboration, entirely conceived and owned by G-20 members. Leaders have set the tone and substance for the initiative. The aim is to ensure that the collective policy action will benefit all. Like any new initiative, the MAP will be fully fleshed out over time, in large part through learning by doing. In the meantime, however, all G-20 members have signaled their “buy-in” to the process through their full cooperation in providing the information required for the analysis and assessments. When the G-20 initiated the MAP, they asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to provide supporting technical analysis. In carrying out this task, the Fund was asked to seek help from other international institutions such as the World Bank, the OECD, the ILO and the WTO. Moreover, a G-20 Working Group (co-Chaired by Canada and India), which was established to substantively add value to each stage of the mutual assessment, has assisted the G-20 Deputies in providing guidance to the Fund and other organizations on the analysis. The initial assessment was based on three key steps. As a first step in this process, all G-20 countries supplied each other and Fund staff with information about their “policy and macroeconomic frameworks”–that is, their policy plans and the expected performance of their economies over the next 3-5 years. Fund staff aggregated the inputs to assess whether the policies were consistent on a “multilateral” basis. And also what they implied for growth, employment, poverty, and so on. This formed the basis for the G-20 “base case” scenario. In keeping with the G-20 ownership of the exercise, individual country policies were taken at face value and no judgments were made by IMF staff concerning their feasibility, timing, or effectiveness. Once the base case assessment was considered by the G-20, Fund staff liaised closely with the Working Group to analyze alternative policy scenarios . A key objective of this exercise was to show how the economic outcomes could be improved through collective action by G-20 members. Providing the foundation–the G-20 “base case” The G-20 base case collectively implied “strong” growth. This enabled a decline in unemployment, which would, nevertheless, still remain quite high for several years. Growth was projected to be “balanced”, since it was broad-based across the G-20 countries. Finally, growth was expected to be “sustainable,” since it was led by private demand. The analysis, however, pointed to some shortcomings and risks. Budget balances in the base case were projected to improve noticeably, helped by strong growth. But deficits and debt levels would still remain high in the large advanced economies. Moreover, there is a risk that if strong growth projected in the submissions by the large advanced economies did not materialize, fiscal positions in these economies could worsen significantly and even trigger another crisis. The forecasts were also associated with only a modest rebalancing of global demand. Countries with large current account deficits before the crisis did not expect a significant boost to growth from exports. And countries with large surpluses did not expect a significant boost from domestic demand. Alternative policy scenarios–benefits of collective action Based on the findings of the “base case” assessment, the G-20 asked IMF staff to explore two alternative policy scenarios . First, an “upside scenario” and associated policy requirements that would help improve the outlook. Second, a “downside scenario” aimed at assessing the implications of the risks identified in the base case, if they were to materialize. Prior to carrying out the scenario analysis, Fund staff made technical refinements to the G-20 base case. This was made for two reasons. First, to ensure greater multilateral consistency in assessing the impact of the crisis and the estimation of output gaps; and Second, to update the macroeconomic frameworks for economic and market developments since the submission of G-20 inputs. The “upside” scenario assessed–in a layered approach–the cumulative benefits of three sets of policy actions for groups of countries with similar circumstances. First, “growth-friendly” and credible fiscal consolidation in major advanced economies, beginning in 2011 and beyond countries’ existing medium-term plans. Fiscal consolidation plans were conceived to be strong, credible, and, to the extent possible, supportive of growth. Second, policies aimed at nurturing domestic demand in emerging economies with large external surpluses. These were aimed at offsetting the loss of demand as advanced economies further tightened their fiscal positions in coming years. Third, structural reform policies aimed at alleviating supply constraints and reducing high unemployment, particularly in advanced G-20 economies, along with measures to boost demand. The key takeaway from this exercise is that well-designed, collaborative policy actions by the G-20 economies can produce outcomes that will make everyone better off. For instance, considered in isolation, fiscal consolidation in advanced economies would dampen growth in the next year or two. And it would have a lasting adverse impact on partners in emerging Asia, given their high export dependence. But all G-20 countries stand to gain when fiscal consolidation in advanced economies is accompanied by key reforms in emerging economies. Benefits to all countries increase further when all three sets of policies noted above are undertaken together. Indeed, our simulations suggested that the payoff for collective policy action by G-20 countries could be high, raising global GDP by an estimated 2½ percent over the medium-term. This would also be good news for job creation and poverty reduction. The “downside” scenario assessed the implications of the risks identified in the G-20 base case. What if growth in major advanced economies was lower than projected or what if market concerns about fiscal sustainability led to a sharp increase in sovereign risk premia? Not surprisingly, the outcome could be quite scary. There would be significant output and employment losses, with a large number of people falling into poverty. At the same time, it is clear that the implementation of the policies needed to reach the upside scenario would likely reduce the probability of such a downside scenario occurring. So, where to next? Reflecting on this assessment, G-20 Leaders agreed at the Toronto Summit in June 2010 that they could do a better job of achieving the objective of strong, balanced and sustainable growth by working together and pursuing reforms along those lines. Leaders committed to taking stronger policy actions that would get the world economy closer to the “upside” scenario in the staff’s report. This set the stage for the second phase of the process, where the mutual assessment will be conducted at the country and regional level. During this phase, each G-20 member will identify policy actions that could help achieve an ambitious outcome of stronger growth than in the base case. These “country-level” policy plans will form the basis for a comprehensive plan that will be articulated by Leaders at the Seoul Summit this November. As the G-20 moves forward with this shared approach to tackling today’s policy challenges, they have a unique opportunity to deliver a better outcome for all. Cross-posted from imfDirect .

Read the full article →

Olivier Blanchard: A Problem Shared Is a Problem Halved: The G-20′s "Mutual Assessment Process"

August 26, 2010

The Group of Twenty industrialized and emerging market economies (G-20) has broken new ground over the past year or two. It has embraced the type of collaborative approach to policy design and review that is well suited to today’s interdependent world, where policies in one country can often have far-reaching effects on others. Collective action by the G-20 in response to the recent crisis was critical in avoiding a catastrophic financial meltdown and a potential second Great Depression. Exceptional policy responses around the globe–including macroeconomic stimulus and financial sector intervention–indeed helped avoid the worst. These actions were notable, both for their scale and force, but also for their consistency and coherence. Keen to build on this success, G-20 Leaders pledged at their 2009 Pittsburgh Summit to adopt policies that would ensure a lasting recovery and a brighter economic future. To meet this goal, they launched the “Framework for Strong, Sustainable, and Balanced Growth.” The backbone of this framework is a multilateral process, where G-20 countries together set out objectives and the policies needed to get there. And, most importantly, they undertake a “mutual assessment” of their progress toward meeting those shared objectives. With this, the G-20 Mutual Assessment Process or the “MAP” was born. But, what exactly will the G-20 Framework imply in terms of prospective actions? And what have we learned so far from the MAP? The MAP–led and owned by the G-20 The MAP is a new approach to policy collaboration, entirely conceived and owned by G-20 members. Leaders have set the tone and substance for the initiative. The aim is to ensure that the collective policy action will benefit all. Like any new initiative, the MAP will be fully fleshed out over time, in large part through learning by doing. In the meantime, however, all G-20 members have signaled their “buy-in” to the process through their full cooperation in providing the information required for the analysis and assessments. When the G-20 initiated the MAP, they asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to provide supporting technical analysis. In carrying out this task, the Fund was asked to seek help from other international institutions such as the World Bank, the OECD, the ILO and the WTO. Moreover, a G-20 Working Group (co-Chaired by Canada and India), which was established to substantively add value to each stage of the mutual assessment, has assisted the G-20 Deputies in providing guidance to the Fund and other organizations on the analysis. The initial assessment was based on three key steps. As a first step in this process, all G-20 countries supplied each other and Fund staff with information about their “policy and macroeconomic frameworks”–that is, their policy plans and the expected performance of their economies over the next 3-5 years. Fund staff aggregated the inputs to assess whether the policies were consistent on a “multilateral” basis. And also what they implied for growth, employment, poverty, and so on. This formed the basis for the G-20 “base case” scenario. In keeping with the G-20 ownership of the exercise, individual country policies were taken at face value and no judgments were made by IMF staff concerning their feasibility, timing, or effectiveness. Once the base case assessment was considered by the G-20, Fund staff liaised closely with the Working Group to analyze alternative policy scenarios . A key objective of this exercise was to show how the economic outcomes could be improved through collective action by G-20 members. Providing the foundation–the G-20 “base case” The G-20 base case collectively implied “strong” growth. This enabled a decline in unemployment, which would, nevertheless, still remain quite high for several years. Growth was projected to be “balanced”, since it was broad-based across the G-20 countries. Finally, growth was expected to be “sustainable,” since it was led by private demand. The analysis, however, pointed to some shortcomings and risks. Budget balances in the base case were projected to improve noticeably, helped by strong growth. But deficits and debt levels would still remain high in the large advanced economies. Moreover, there is a risk that if strong growth projected in the submissions by the large advanced economies did not materialize, fiscal positions in these economies could worsen significantly and even trigger another crisis. The forecasts were also associated with only a modest rebalancing of global demand. Countries with large current account deficits before the crisis did not expect a significant boost to growth from exports. And countries with large surpluses did not expect a significant boost from domestic demand. Alternative policy scenarios–benefits of collective action Based on the findings of the “base case” assessment, the G-20 asked IMF staff to explore two alternative policy scenarios . First, an “upside scenario” and associated policy requirements that would help improve the outlook. Second, a “downside scenario” aimed at assessing the implications of the risks identified in the base case, if they were to materialize. Prior to carrying out the scenario analysis, Fund staff made technical refinements to the G-20 base case. This was made for two reasons. First, to ensure greater multilateral consistency in assessing the impact of the crisis and the estimation of output gaps; and Second, to update the macroeconomic frameworks for economic and market developments since the submission of G-20 inputs. The “upside” scenario assessed–in a layered approach–the cumulative benefits of three sets of policy actions for groups of countries with similar circumstances. First, “growth-friendly” and credible fiscal consolidation in major advanced economies, beginning in 2011 and beyond countries’ existing medium-term plans. Fiscal consolidation plans were conceived to be strong, credible, and, to the extent possible, supportive of growth. Second, policies aimed at nurturing domestic demand in emerging economies with large external surpluses. These were aimed at offsetting the loss of demand as advanced economies further tightened their fiscal positions in coming years. Third, structural reform policies aimed at alleviating supply constraints and reducing high unemployment, particularly in advanced G-20 economies, along with measures to boost demand. The key takeaway from this exercise is that well-designed, collaborative policy actions by the G-20 economies can produce outcomes that will make everyone better off. For instance, considered in isolation, fiscal consolidation in advanced economies would dampen growth in the next year or two. And it would have a lasting adverse impact on partners in emerging Asia, given their high export dependence. But all G-20 countries stand to gain when fiscal consolidation in advanced economies is accompanied by key reforms in emerging economies. Benefits to all countries increase further when all three sets of policies noted above are undertaken together. Indeed, our simulations suggested that the payoff for collective policy action by G-20 countries could be high, raising global GDP by an estimated 2½ percent over the medium-term. This would also be good news for job creation and poverty reduction. The “downside” scenario assessed the implications of the risks identified in the G-20 base case. What if growth in major advanced economies was lower than projected or what if market concerns about fiscal sustainability led to a sharp increase in sovereign risk premia? Not surprisingly, the outcome could be quite scary. There would be significant output and employment losses, with a large number of people falling into poverty. At the same time, it is clear that the implementation of the policies needed to reach the upside scenario would likely reduce the probability of such a downside scenario occurring. So, where to next? Reflecting on this assessment, G-20 Leaders agreed at the Toronto Summit in June 2010 that they could do a better job of achieving the objective of strong, balanced and sustainable growth by working together and pursuing reforms along those lines. Leaders committed to taking stronger policy actions that would get the world economy closer to the “upside” scenario in the staff’s report. This set the stage for the second phase of the process, where the mutual assessment will be conducted at the country and regional level. During this phase, each G-20 member will identify policy actions that could help achieve an ambitious outcome of stronger growth than in the base case. These “country-level” policy plans will form the basis for a comprehensive plan that will be articulated by Leaders at the Seoul Summit this November. As the G-20 moves forward with this shared approach to tackling today’s policy challenges, they have a unique opportunity to deliver a better outcome for all. Cross-posted from imfDirect .

Read the full article →

iMANY Names Vice President of Global Sales

August 26, 2010

Jerry Schorn Hired to Lead Sales Organization

Read the full article →

US Virgin Islands’ property market still down, but poised to recover

August 26, 2010

The housing market in the US Virgin Islands has still not quite recovered from its crash in 2008, but reports of new property developments suggest optimism.

Read the full article →