October 2010

Just last week two of America’s leading newspapers, the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal presented opinion pieces discussing why Americans remain bitter about the federal bailouts. The WSJ’s contributor Matthew Winkler’s “Time for Bailout Transparency” 10.28.08 lamented that the public outrsage is centered on the governments lack of transparency given the government’s refusal to date to disclose all facts attendent to the bail out. Information such as how public funds were disbursed, who made the decisions, how it was allocated, which firms borrowed from the Federal Reserve and accessed the Federal Reserve discount window. All interesting, well and good. And could even be embarrassing to the likes of J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo who are suing to have recent rulings mandating transparency reversed. Just a few days before Ross Douthat expounded in the New York Times with “The Great Bailout Backlash” 10.25.10, declaring “Nothing this election season, no program or party or politician is less popular than the Troubled Asset Relief Program of 2008 (TARP).” He then went on to quote one Matthew Yglesias of the Center of American Progress, that the Wall Street rescue package is “one of the most unfairly maligned policy initiatives of all all time.” Douthat then continues to put us at further ease, stating “As it stands the government may actually end up turning a modest profit on the money injected into Wall Street’s failing banks.” There is much in each Op-ed piece about necessity of TARP, without which the nation would have slid into depression and far greater unemployment. And that is understood by most Americans. What they can’t abide was the patent unfairness of it all. The financial engineers that very nearly sank the ship of state were permitted to reward themselves munificently while the public bailout brigade that did the bailing were left holding their rusted buckets, and even then, if they didn’t bow humbly and comply to the financial engineers’ admonitions, even those rusty buckets along with their homes were taken from them. This while the financial engineers could take shore leave from their saved ship and tear up the town. What galls most Americans is the manner in which Wall Street rewarded itself after it was the public that took the risk of bailing them out. While millions of Americans were losing their homes and their jobs Wall Street was setting aside humongous bonus pools such as Goldman Sachs’s $23 billion in 2009. Earlier this month we learned that Wall Street would achieve a record in 2010, setting aside some $144 billion as compensation (“Wall Street Pay: A Record $144 Billion”, WSJ 10.11.10). Had the companies been permitted to fail. or had they been administered under some form of managed bankruptcy the bonuses of the “failed” companies would never have been paid out, or if they had, the bankruptcy courts would have recaptured them as ‘fraudulent transfers’. Only a vigilant government initiative to ‘clawback’ these dubious payouts would have abated the public’s feeling that they were being taken for a ride and gamed by well connected insiders. Sadly, our government, probably under pressure from Wall Street lobbyistsand the meek of heart did practically nothing. Yes, they did delegate that stalwart fighter for all things fair and equitable, Ken Feinberg, as the Administration’s ‘Pay Czar’ who came away soft pedaling the outrageous bonuses as “ill-advised.” and left matters at that (please see”The Administration’s “PayCzar” Soft Pedaling Ban Bonuses as “Ill Advised.” What Is This Man Talking About?” 07.25.10). The issue may have come to an end for the Administration but American’s are still seething. Yes, more openess will be helpful but that is not the core issue. The Wall Street perpetrators were rewarded while Main Street and the rest of America paid the price. Is this the new American Way??

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Raymond J. Learsy: America’s Anger at the Great Financial Bailout and the Press’ Continuing Inability To Understand Why

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24/7 Wall St. looked at an October, 2010 report on water risk by environmental research and sustainability group, Ceres. We also considered a comprehensive July, 2010 report from the National Resources Defense Council which mapped areas at high risk of water shortage conflict. 24/7 Wall St also did its own analysis of water supply and consumption in America’s largest cities, and focused on the thirty largest metropolitan areas. One goal was to identify potential conflicts in regions which might have disputed rights over large supplies of water and the battles that could arise from these disputes. And, 24/7 Wall St. examined geographic areas which have already been plagued by drought and water shortages off and on. The analysis allowed us to choose ten cities which are likely to face severe shortages in the relatively near-term future. Some of these are likely to be obvious to the reader. The area around Los Angeles was once too dry to sustain the population of a huge city. But, infrastructure was built that allowed water to be pumped in from east of the region. Las Vegas had similar problems. It was part of a great desert until Lake Meade was created by the Hoover dam built on the Colorado river.

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The 10 Biggest American Cities That Are Running Out Of Water: 24/7 Wall Street

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Dean Baker: David Broder Calls for War With Iran to Boost the Economy

October 31, 2010

This is not a joke (at least not on my part). David Broder, the longtime columnist and reporter at a formerly respectable newspaper, quite explicitly suggested that fighting a war with Iran could be an effective way to boost the economy. Ignoring the idea that anyone should undertake war as an economic policy, Broder’s economics is also a visit to loon tune land. Broder tells readers: “Can Obama harness the forces that might spur new growth? This is the key question for the next two years. What are those forces? Essentially, there are two. One is the power of the business cycle, the tidal force that throughout history has dictated when the economy expands and when it contracts. Economists struggle to analyze this, but they almost inevitably conclude that it cannot be rushed and almost resists political command. As the saying goes, the market will go where it is going to go. In this regard, Obama has no advantage over any other pol. Even in analyzing the tidal force correctly, he cannot control it. What else might affect the economy? The answer is obvious, but its implications are frightening. War and peace influence the economy.” Sorry Mr. Broder, outside of Fox on 15th the world does not work this way. War affects the economy the same way that other government spending affects the economy. It does not have some mystical impact as Broder seems to think. If spending on war can provide jobs and lift the economy then so can spending on roads, weatherizing homes, or educating our kids. Yes, that’s right, all the forms of stimulus spending that Broder derided so much because they add to the deficit will increase GDP and generate jobs just like the war that Broder is advocating (which will also add to the deficit). So, we have two routes to prosperity. We can either build up our physical infrastructure and improve the skills and education of our workers or we can go kill Iranians. Broder has made it clear where he stands.

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Dean Baker: David Broder Calls for War With Iran to Boost the Economy

October 31, 2010

This is not a joke (at least not on my part). David Broder, the longtime columnist and reporter at a formerly respectable newspaper, quite explicitly suggested that fighting a war with Iran could be an effective way to boost the economy. Ignoring the idea that anyone should undertake war as an economic policy, Broder’s economics is also a visit to loon tune land. Broder tells readers: “Can Obama harness the forces that might spur new growth? This is the key question for the next two years. What are those forces? Essentially, there are two. One is the power of the business cycle, the tidal force that throughout history has dictated when the economy expands and when it contracts. Economists struggle to analyze this, but they almost inevitably conclude that it cannot be rushed and almost resists political command. As the saying goes, the market will go where it is going to go. In this regard, Obama has no advantage over any other pol. Even in analyzing the tidal force correctly, he cannot control it. What else might affect the economy? The answer is obvious, but its implications are frightening. War and peace influence the economy.” Sorry Mr. Broder, outside of Fox on 15th the world does not work this way. War affects the economy the same way that other government spending affects the economy. It does not have some mystical impact as Broder seems to think. If spending on war can provide jobs and lift the economy then so can spending on roads, weatherizing homes, or educating our kids. Yes, that’s right, all the forms of stimulus spending that Broder derided so much because they add to the deficit will increase GDP and generate jobs just like the war that Broder is advocating (which will also add to the deficit). So, we have two routes to prosperity. We can either build up our physical infrastructure and improve the skills and education of our workers or we can go kill Iranians. Broder has made it clear where he stands.

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Foreign Money In The Midterm Elections — And Beyond

October 31, 2010

Campaign contributions by non-citizens are a huge issue lurking behind the midterm elections; they will be even more important in 2012.

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Petrobras signs $820m deal with Toyota Tsohu

October 31, 2010

Petrobras signs $820m deal with Toyota Tsohu

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Canadian economy grows 0.3% in August

October 31, 2010

Canadian economy grows 0.3% in August

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Honda achieves $1.7b earnings in Q3

October 31, 2010

Honda achieves $1.7b earnings in Q3

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Mexican GDP expands 5% in Q3

October 31, 2010

Mexican GDP expands 5% in Q3

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Europe Ahead: Central bank decision mark the week from the Feds to the BoE and ECB

October 31, 2010

Europe Ahead: Central bank decision mark the week from the Feds to the BoE and ECB

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An important week awaits the Pacific

October 31, 2010

An important week awaits the Pacific

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A Rollercoaster Week for U.S. Markets as Income, Spending, FOMC, and Jobs Control Investors

October 31, 2010

A Rollercoaster Week for U.S. Markets as Income, Spending, FOMC, and Jobs Control Investors

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Russia to build Vietnam�s first nuclear plant

October 31, 2010

Russia to build Vietnam�s first nuclear plant

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Reliance reports 28% rise in quarterly profit

October 31, 2010

Reliance reports 28% rise in quarterly profit

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Exxon achieves $7.35b earnings in Q3

October 31, 2010

Exxon achieves $7.35b earnings in Q3

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Cablevision solves programming dispute with Fox

October 31, 2010

Cablevision solves programming dispute with Fox

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German retail sales slump 2.3% in September

October 31, 2010

German retail sales slump 2.3% in September

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US economy expands 2% in Q3

October 31, 2010

US economy expands 2% in Q3

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Japan’s factory output falls 1.9% in September

October 31, 2010

Japan’s factory output falls 1.9% in September

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Spanish inflation rises to 2.2% in October

October 31, 2010

Spanish inflation rises to 2.2% in October

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Lease Up: America’s Best-Performing Cities

October 31, 2010

The Milken Institute, an independent economic think tank, released its annually updated Best-Performing Cities index and cautions this year that in the midst of a severe national recession any best-performing city should be viewed as one that was able…

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Robert Lenzner: Nitty Gritty Numbers Suggest Downwqard Spiral

October 31, 2010

Nitty Gritty Numbers Suggest Downward Spiral Robert Lenzner, 10.29.10, 06:20 PM EDT Invest by the numbers, not the political rhetoric. Right now the numbers are lousy and downright frightening. In housing, the Case-Shiller home price index fell almost 3% on an annualized basis in August and September, the weakest performance since May of 2009 when the recession still going on. In 19 of the top 20 cities, prices were down on a seasonally adjusted basis. During the July, August, September period sales of new homes fell at a sickening 41% annual rate to 293,000 units the lowest level ever recorded going back to 1963, when the figures were first kept. In unemployment, emergency benefits to extend 99 weeks (almost two years) of unemployment benefits are running out or for some 4 million to 5 million people from December through April. This is proof positive that we are on the cusp of a deepening poverty at the very moment of political stalemate. Rosenberg says government handouts are responsible for 20% of disposable income in the country, so pray for the stability of the Social Security system. In personal Income, this loss of unemployment benefits means a loss of income equal to about $300 a week, or about $80 billion totted up, unavailable for consumption. I have seen no other market strategist get down to the prospects for the people at the bottom of the income ladder. Did you know that 38% of middle income families plan to spend less than $500 on holiday gifts, double the number last year? Look at global air cargo shipments, an indicator of health for global economy. They slid ominously by 2.1% last month. The Air Transport Association found this “worrying,” according to Rosenberg’s daily letter “Breakfast with Dave.” Durable goods orders are down 0.8% if you exclude orders for aircraft components, which suggests air travel and tourism might be good place to invest dollars. Good news? Some 83% of companies have beaten their profit estimates, putting their margins at a high point despite the slowness in revenues. Large public companies have risen in share price because they cut out overhead. They laid off a lot of people and were able to report significant profit gains from the bottom of the recession cycle. . Jobless claims showed a lower number this week, which was widely interpreted as promising for a turn in the economy. Rosenberg suggests that job losses will be revised upward We are in danger of drifting into mediocrity because we are only focused on elections not governance, points out Columbia University economist Jeffrey Sachs He has said it better and more cogently There is a lot of uncertainty ahead. Most gurus don’t think Bernanke’s QE2 will do anything meaningfully positive, only weaken the dollar more to juice U.S. exports and profits at giant multinationals. It will also lead to more speculation in gold and commodities, though of a more

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Russell Floats Equal Weight Index Series

October 30, 2010

Russell Investments has unveiled a new series of equal weight equity indices that reflect the key US and global market segments

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Dan Dorfman: Signs of a Nice Jobs Surprise

October 30, 2010

Hey, good news. Just maybe we’re seeing some light at the end of the jobs tunnel. Come Friday, we’ll get the October employment numbers which numerous economists predict will show a paltry gain of between 25,000 and 75,000 new private sector jobs. Too low, says economist Madeline Schnapp, a consistent and accurate bear on employment trends over the past year. Now, though, she has suddenly shifted gears over the near term, citing such job-hiring stimulants as a lot of home refinancing, brisk hi-tech infrastructure spending, an upswing in health care hiring and a jump in commodity prices. To Schnapp, director of economics at West Coast liquidity tracker Trimtabs Research, which is partially owned by Goldman Sachs, it means an employment surprise — the creation of about 100,000 new private sector jobs in October. That would follow some recent good news on the employment front — namely a fall in the latest weekless jobless claims to 434,000, the lowest level since July. A one time seismologist who used to predict earthquakes, Schnapp now predicts a mini-market explosion in reaction to her higher than expected jobs numbers, something on the order, she figures, of a Dow rise on Friday of between 150 and 180 points. While pointing to signs of a pickup in employment, Schnapp is quick to stress that “we’re still not over the hump since we need to create 150,000 to 200,000 a jobs a month just to keep up with population growth.” She also sees the market vulnerable to another economic shock, such as further rise in oil to say $100 to $120 a barrel, which would send the currently rising gas price to $4-$4.25 a gallon. It’s now above $3 a gallon in a number of areas of the country. Getting back to the stock market, a lot of leery stock market players are suddenly hot to trot again, obviously seduced by the recent rise in equity prices, namely a surge in the Dow of more than 1,000 points or about 11% since Sept. 1. “You can easily sense greed and risk are back in fashion,” says Los Angeles money manager Arnold Silver of A. Silver Associates, who notes that he’s getting increasing calls from clients about speculative stocks that he says no one in the world should ever think twice about. “People seem to have lost sight of the huge market decline in recent years and all the lost wealth,” he says. “I think it’s dumb to do that this soon, considering all the unknowns.” Like most people, Silver, who views the market as overbought and vulnerable at current levels, looks for the G.O.P. to rack up solid election-day gains. But he thinks it would be a mistake for investors to over-react to a GOP victory because he doesn’t see any immediate benefits, notably cutbacks in government spending, reduction in entitlements, the avoidance of higher taxes or substantive new steps to pep up a slightly improving economy. “We’re looking at a lame duck President and political gridlock, which means little, if anything, will get done in Washington,” says Silver. “Why would anybody think that’s good for stock prices?” One of Wall Street’s premier technicians, Oppenheimer & Co.’s Carter Worth, is also hoisting warning flags. If indeed he’s on the money, it’s worth giving some thought to an old saying, When everything is coming your way (as is the case now with many stocks), you’re in the wrong lane. His latest readings suggest Wall Street’s bulls would be wise to take a breather before they’re the ones who get gored. The danger, as Worth sees it, is that the early birds have caught the worms, that the good news that has compelled stock prices higher is already being discounted in the marketplace. Here, he’s referring to pretty decent third-quarter earnings, the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) from the Federal Reserve and Republican gains in the mid-term elections. As such, he’s telling clients that the market, as measured by the S&P 500, should wind up the year at pretty much where it started (at about 1115). Since the index is currently around 1180, Worth essentially is warning that equity prices are headed lower. The most dangerous market sectors, as Worth sees them, are the financial and consumer discretionary areas. In the latter area, he views Chipotle Mexican Grill and Fossill as especially vulnerable since, he says, they’re both overextended and priced to perfection. His most appealing sectors: energy, industrials and utilities. He’s also enthusiastic about gold. whose uptrend, he notes, remains intact. His favorite gold stocks are Barrick Gold and Newmont Mining. What about Apple, the apple of many an investor’s eye? It, too, is viewed as extended, but Worth says its uptrend remains intact, allowing the stock free to work its way higher. As for Google, another market favorite, he says it has been repriced higher to a difficult level and is likely to back and fill for many weeks How does the market usually perform during mid-term elections? Sam Stovall, Standard & Poor’s chief investment strategist, offers some perspective. During the 20 mid-term elections since 1930, the S&P 500 rose an average 2.2% in November and posted increases 65% of the time. What do you think? E-mail me at Dandordan@aol.com .

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Earnings catch the spotlight from fundamentals as markets await Fed action

October 30, 2010

Earnings catch the spotlight from fundamentals as markets await Fed action

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A busy week full of important events for Asia

October 30, 2010

A busy week full of important events for Asia

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Earnings and Q3 Advanced GDP Encourage Investors Ahead of Next Week’s Rumble

October 30, 2010

Earnings and Q3 Advanced GDP Encourage Investors Ahead of Next Week’s Rumble

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Terrorists target America

October 30, 2010

Terrorists target America

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Indian takeover of Ssangyong approved

October 30, 2010

Indian takeover of Ssangyong approved

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