February 2011

Petrobras posts 38% jump in net profits in Q4

February 27, 2011

Petrobras posts 38% jump in net profits in Q4

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India’s economy to grow 9.25% max in 2011

February 27, 2011

India’s economy to grow 9.25% max in 2011

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AIA profit hikes 54%

February 27, 2011

AIA profit hikes 54%

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Japan sees 0.2% decrease in CPI in Jan 2011

February 27, 2011

Japan sees 0.2% decrease in CPI in Jan 2011

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CEPSA’s net profits rise 54.9% in 2010

February 27, 2011

CEPSA’s net profits rise 54.9% in 2010

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Russia’s FDI drop 13.2% in 2010

February 27, 2011

Russia’s FDI drop 13.2% in 2010

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April Rudin: This Is My Detroit — Here’s What The Motor City Means To Me

February 26, 2011

This is the 20th anniversary of my move from Detroit to New York City. I traveled on a one-way ticket from Detroit’s Metropolitan Airport to New York’s LaGuardia airport. I left behind the city that had been my home for my first 30 years. I did not look at what I was leaving behind in Detroit, but I was focused on my future in NYC. The city of Detroit that I left behind 20 years ago was burned out and bruised, and since then, it has declined even further. Brad Anderson recently filmed a movie, “Vanishing on 7th Street,” in Detroit and claimed, “If you are doing an apocalyptic movie, Detroit is the place to go. The streets are devoid of people and the vacant buildings are endless.” In fact, there are no longer traffic reports within the city of Detroit. There are simply not enough cars and people to fill the large geographic expanse that is the City of Detroit. Sadly, I read the negative press as Detroit wrestles with itself to figure out how to reinvent itself through rezoning, bringing in new industries like filmmaking and trying to figure out how to retrain its workforce. It was with much pride that I watched the Chrysler commercial with Eminem during the Superbowl and saw the familiar images of Detroit as they flashed across the screen. The commercial itself was lauded because of its spirit of renewal. But for me, the images of Detroit reminded me of my Motor City soul. Although it was Eminem who first made “8 Mile” widely known, for me that was simply where my grandmother lived; 8 Mile Road is the imaginary dividing line between the city of Detroit and the surrounding northern suburbs. There were some images in the commercial that resonated with me, as they represented my Detroit — for example, frescos from the Detroit Institute of Arts. These famous frescos were created by acclaimed artist Diego Rivera and feature images of Henry Ford, Thomas Edison, Edsel Ford (who commissioned the work) and William Valentiner (Director of the DIA at the time). These men were contemporaries and influential on the artistic, technological and industrial roots of Detroit. Cars define the Motor City, not because Henry Ford invented the car there but rather because he invented the method of efficient manufacturing: the assembly line. His goal was to mass-manufacture and mass-market his cars so that his workers could each drive a Ford car. Although most people know that Detroit has one of the largest Arab populations outside the Middle East, the reason is not widely known. It was Henry Ford who brought them to Detroit: because Muslims did not drink alcohol, they were more reliable as assembly line workers. Growing up in Detroit as the daughter of a Teamster attorney, I was keenly aware of the car/industrial culture as well as the management/labor tension. The Big Three automakers (Chrysler, Ford and GM) were like big battleships, almost unstoppable and unable to easily change course. They were strong and mighty. During the MidEast oil crisis of the ’70s, each of the Big Three automotive companies had two parking lots for their vendors: a near parking lot for those driving American cars, and a far parking lot for those driving foreign cars. The first car that I had was a Plymouth Duster with an awesome stereo and eight-track tape player. This is my Detroit! Another important part of Detroit is the African-American cultural imprint. Detroit was the last stop on the Underground Railroad — the escape route for slaves during the Civil War — before Canada. Many African Americans stayed in Detroit without ever crossing over to the border (the only place where the U.S. is north of Canada.) The Fist of Detroit—”Brown Bomber” Joe Louis’s fist was shown during the commercial. Downtown Detroit is also home to the Joe Louis Arena where the Red Wings play hockey. Another important image in the Chrysler commercial showed a gospel choir, central to the culture in Detroit, from which Motown music was an outgrowth. Aretha Franklin was the daughter of a preacher. Many Motown artists grew up attending large churches with active choirs and were influenced by the music they heard. The original home of Motown Records, “Hitsville USA,” was also located downtown near Wayne State campus. I would drive by it almost every day in my car with my Motown music blaring! The soundtrack of my Detroit years is a combination of Motown music including Marvin Gaye, Al Green, Stevie Wonder, Aretha Franklin, The Supremes, et al . But I also listened to the music of homegrown Detroit Rock ‘n’ Roll artists like Bob Seger, Alice Cooper, Mitch Ryder, Ted Nugent and Grand Funk Railroad. This is my Detroit! There is also the food of Detroit — the longtime rivalry of the next-door Coney Island restaurants: hot dogs with “skin” slathered in “loose” chili, onions and mustard. American Coney Island and Layfayette Coney Island battle today for the top dog and “loose” hamburger (chili in a hamburger bun). In Detroit’s Greektown, you can yell “oompah” to saganaki — cheese grilled in brandy and lit on fire! If you are thirsty, there is the famous “pop” (soda) of Detroit — Vernors Ginger Ale (the oldest soft drink brand in America) and Faygo Red Pop. Or even drink a Stroh’s beer! Also, pizza is a Detroit staple ith two successful chains beginning there: Little Caesar’s and Domino’s. Fondly, I remember going to Sander’s, which was an old-fashioned fountain shop, when I was growing up. Typically, they served water in paper cones that fit into the tin bottoms. Sander’s was famous for their Hot Fudge cream puff! It’s a pastry filled with cold vanilla ice cream and hot Sanders Fudge poured on top! Mmm… and I almost forgot Sander’s bumpy cake — chocolate cake and frosting with “bumps” of buttercream between the frosting and cake! While I was growing up in Detroit, fall meant going to the cider mills for freshly squeezed apple cider and piping hot greasy donuts. You could smell the apples a mile away! Hudson’s (now Macy’s) was my favorite destination for shopping and lunch. Usually on Saturdays, we would go to the mall, Northland Mall (the first mall in the country and the location of my first job!). We would go to Hudson’s for their famous Maurice Salad with its creamy dressing, slivered pickles and turkey. It was often imitated but never duplicated. And then there was the classic Detroit/Chinese dish: almond boneless chicken. I have never seen it served anywhere else except Detroit! This is my Detroit! I could go on and on, but here is a random list of things that I think of in my Detroit: Ambassador Bridge to Canada, going Up North, water skiing on the lakes, the Detroit Zoo, Greenfield Village, ice-fishing in a shanty, tobogganing and sledding, Bob-Lo Island, Tiger baseball and the 1968 World Series, the Detroit Pistons, cruising Woodward Avenue in the summer with the windows down and the music blaring, Hudson’s Thanksgiving Parade, Freedom Festival fireworks, summer nights at Pine Knob open air music theater, Pontiac Trans-Am, the “mile” roads, short humid summers and long snowy winters. This is my Detroit ! For 20 years now, I have been living my life, working in NYC and raising my own children in metropolitan NYC. I have never much thought of myself as an “ex-pat” or what it meant to leave Detroit. Until now.There was something about seeing that commercial that triggered a flood of great memories and nostalgia for my Detroit. I realize that my Detroit lives on in my memory and that the future city will be a newfangled version of what I remember, perhaps even unrecognizable to a former hometown girl. Although they can change the physical borders and the types of industries that support the state, I think that the soul of Detroit will remain. Cue the Temptations’ “I’ll be Doggone” and bring on the Coneys! Let’s sit back and watch Detroit, like its own Tiger baseball team, come roaring back.

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Executives Behind Financial Crisis Face Little Risk Of Being Caught

February 26, 2011

So much for Angelo Mozilo taking the fall for the financial crisis. Late last week, word leaked out that Mr. Mozilo, who had co-founded Countrywide Financial in 1969 — and, for nearly 40 years, presided over its astonishing rise and its equally astonishing fall — would not be prosecuted by the Justice Department. Not for insider trading. Not for failing to disclose to investors his private worries about subprime loans. Not for helping to create a culture at Countrywide in which mortgage originators were rewarded for pushing fraudulent loans on borrowers.

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Dr. Sasha Galbraith: Women and Quotas: Will It Break the (Plexi) Glass Ceiling?

February 26, 2011

A debate on boardroom quotas continues to percolate through the European and American media, especially of late. Bloomberg BusinessWeek recently hosted a rather tepid discussion on the topic, while the Financial Times published a more thoughtful set of articles tackling the issue. The fact is, in the U.S. women occupy a paltry 15 percent of Fortune 500 board seats — and this number has hardly budged for years. The UK’s boardroom gender composition has stagnated at 12.5 percent female. In Asia, the number is in the single digits. With Thursday’s release of the Lord Davies report on women in the boardroom, the UK rejected instituting quotas for women at the top of FTSE 100 companies. The Davies panel appointed to review the issue has instead recommended that companies follow “voluntary targets” to hire more women at senior levels. Specifically, the panel recommended that FTSE 100 companies aim to achieve a one in four ratio of women to men on boards by 2015 — or else quotas should be instituted. You can just hear the howls of discontent among businessmen (and a few executive women ) worldwide: “It’s not right! Women — like their male colleagues — should be appointed strictly on merit, not because of their gender. Since when should the government dictate to us who should be on our board? We pick board members based on their talent and proven experience in running major companies. It’s just a matter of time before there are qualified women.” Well, that sentiment hasn’t worked very well in the past few decades, has it? It sounds very much like a pipeline argument to me. Women entered the workforce in earnest during the 1960s and ’70s. Most of those women are now getting ready to retire. Today their daughters are in the prime of their careers poised to jump into top management, but they still face a very thick (plexi) glass ceiling. A survey released on Monday by the Institute of Leadership & Management found that three quarters of women in business say there are barriers to them reaching senior management. This is in contrast to 38 percent of men who feel the same. Norway has had a strict quota law in place for the past three years, although the milder form of it was adopted in 2003. It stipulates that all publicly traded companies must have at least 40 percent women on their boards of directors. Any Norwegian company that didn’t comply with the law was threatened with dissolution. (In practice, those that chose not to comply simply took themselves private or moved their corporate headquarters to the UK.) France has enacted a similar law — minus the penalties. Disobedient French companies will simply get a slap on the corporate hand. That explains the comment (cited in the May 6, 2010 edition of The Economist ) of a senior French board member who said he would use a female candidate’s appearance as his primary selection criteria ahead of industry or other relevant experience. Similarly the Swiss CEO of Deutsche Bank, Josef Ackermann, recently came out in favor of putting more women on boards for their ability to make the board meetings ” prettier and more colorful .” Patronizing remarks like those are exactly the reason more forceful action needs to be taken. Companies won’t change unless someone forces them to do so — or, as Ines Kolmsee, CEO of chemical company SKW Metallurgie said, holds a ” Damocles Sword ” over their collective heads. A growing body of research from the likes of Catalyst , McKinsey & Company and others has shown that women on boards bring higher profits, higher quality earnings, better share price growth, better decisions and higher innovation. Moreover, Catalyst showed that companies with high numbers of women at the board level also end up with more women in senior management (compared to companies with male-dominated boards). So will the UK’s voluntary target proposal work? I doubt it. German companies instituted a similar “self-commitment” ten years ago. How’d they do? Last year executive women held just four of the 185 boardroom seats on the German DAX30 — a shameful 2.2 percent. At that glacial rate of change, perhaps our great-granddaughters will have a shot at true equality in the boardroom. Frankly, I think that German Families’ Minister Kristina Schröder has a far better solution: Like a quarterly earnings report, make companies publicly declare their own goals and timeline for getting women into senior management, and if they fail to achieve those targets, they must explain why. Coincidently, that’s also one of the Davies Report recommendations. Now that’s holding their feet to the fire! Cross-posted from Forbes.com

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The Widening Gap Between Company Productivity And Workers Wages ‘Redolent Of Scrooge’ [CHART]

February 26, 2011

As corporate America picks up steam — The Economist described the current profit-reporting season as “shaping up to be one of the best ever” — when will employee compensation catch up? If the history of the last several decades is any indicator, it could be a while. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a disheartening chart illustrating the widening gap between growth of productivity for companies and real hourly compensation for workers over the 30 plus years. From the BLS: Real hourly compensation growth failed to keep pace with accelerating productivity growth over the past three decades, and the gap between productivity growth and compensation growth widened. Over the 2000-09 period, growth in productivity averaged 2.5 percent; growth in real compensation averaged 1.1 percent over the same period. The relationship between productivity and worker compensation illuminates the extent to which the employed benefit from economic growth. As Princeton Economist Alan Blinder wrote in the Wall Street Journal last December: When it comes to wages, the basic story of recent decades is redolent of Scrooge. Real average hourly earnings (excluding fringe benefits) now stand roughly at 1974 levels. Yes, that’s right, no real increase in over 35 years. That is an astounding, dismaying and profoundly ahistorical development. The American story for two centuries was one of real wages advancing more or less in line with productivity. But not lately. Since 1978, productivity in the nonfarm business sector is up 86%, but real compensation per hour (which includes fringe benefits) is up just 37%. Does that seem fair?

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With $38 Billion, Warren Buffett Is Looking For Deals: ‘My Trigger Finger Is Itchy’

February 26, 2011

Warren Buffett is looking for acquisitions as an outlet to deploy his $38 billion cash pile, the legendary investor said in his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway Inc shareholders on Saturday. Buffett gave an aggressive earnings forecast for Berkshire’s collection of businesses, said the company would engage in record capital spending and forecast a recovery in the housing market would start within a year. Foremost, though, was his acknowledgment of the need for Berkshire to expand its non-insurance businesses, a broad collection that most prominently includes the railroad Burlington Northern and the electric utility MidAmerican. “Our elephant gun has been reloaded, and my trigger finger is itchy,” Buffett said. The letter was released just before 8 a.m. EST Saturday, as it is in most years — and many large investors say they get up early that day to read it the moment it comes online. The so-called “Oracle of Omaha” said Berkshire will need “more major acquisitions” — with an italicized emphasis on major — to meet its goal. One long-time Berkshire investor described the letter as “punchy” and “confidently American,” among other things. “I would say as an investor, I think it’s a very upbeat letter, it’s one that celebrates his courage on behalf of investors of going into the marketplace when the world was most fearful,” said Tom Russo, a partner at Gardner Russo & Gardner in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, who is one of the 15 largest holders of Berkshire Class A shares. Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Rex Flexibility: Approaching Retirement Age And Still Doing The Work-Life Juggle?

February 26, 2011

We hear a lot about the struggles modern parents face in juggling work and family needs. Meeting the demands of today’s 24-hour, Blackberry-fueled workplace and still finding time for your kids (let alone time for yourself ) can seem next to impossible. But here’s the thing that should really scare every busy, overworked parent: It doesn’t get any easier. For the majority of Americans, the dream of shipping your kids off to college and retiring to an oceanfront condo has become just that — a dream. Most seniors today find themselves still struggling to balance the demands of work and family. Older workers make up a larger portion of the workforce than ever before , with many people working full-time well into their 60s and 70s, either because they enjoy their jobs and want to keep contributing, or simply because they don’t have enough savings to retire securely. On top of this, older workers have increased family responsibilities, too. The majority of children now grow up in families in which both parents work full-time, meaning that grandparents take on a larger role in childcare. What’s more, with people aged 18 to 26 hit harder than anyone else by the recession , many parents now find themselves still providing financially for their grown children, right when they expected to be easing into their own retirement. Add in the fact that seniors often need to devote significant time to their health and well-being, not to mention personal pursuits such as volunteering in one’s community, and it should be clear that the work-life juggle doesn’t stop, or even slow down, just because you’ve hit 62 (or 72 or 82). So what do we do about it? The answer is that we have to change the way we work. The traditional, rigid structure of the workplace, where every employee works full-time, year-in and year-out, with few opportunities for time off or adjusted schedules, doesn’t work very well for anyone anymore. But it’s particularly problematic for seniors who have already been running this grueling work-life marathon for 40 or 50 years and are told that their only options are to stop altogether or keep going at the same pace. Companies need to provide new options that embrace the expertise and experience of our older employees and allow them to contribute to their workplaces while still living a balanced life. Many companies have already introduced such options, including phased retirement, job sharing and flexible work arrangements that provide for shorter hours, alternative schedules or increased time off. Older workers frequently report that such arrangements are even more important than salary, which makes this an ideal change for cash-strapped companies that can’t offer raises right now. However, only a small percentage of older workers have such options at their disposal. A recent survey from Cornell University found that 73 percent of companies say they would permit an older worker to reduce hours, but only 14 percent had formal policies that allow for this to happen. If we want to ensure that our workplaces remain productive as our population rapidly ages, this has to change. By 2015, workers over 65 will constitute 20 percent of the workforce, and they already make up an increasingly large percentage of managers, supervisors and executives. Yet most employers have not developed strategies for retaining these employees. Without increased opportunities for workplace flexibility, we are going to see more and more older workers hitting a wall and feeling like they can’t continue. This isn’t just about respecting our elders. It’s about crafting workplaces that keep employees happy and engaged, and giving employers the chance to keep productive, efficient people in the workforce longer. There may no longer be a set age at which Americans can expect to stop doing the work-life juggle, but with the proper planning, we can make sure everyone is able to juggle successfully.

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William S. Lerach: Blame Wall Street, Not Hard Working Americans, for the Pension Funds Fiasco

February 26, 2011

The confrontations in Wisconsin and other states are the opening salvo of a political blame game — who is responsible for the gigantic public pension fund deficits that threaten states’ solvency and workers’ retirement savings? The conservative spin machine blames public employees, claiming their greedy unions extorted extravagant and now unaffordable benefits which justify pension cutbacks and union-busting. This is a false. The real cause of the pension fund debacle is the greed of Wall Street and its corporate allies. It’s a result of their dismantling of our nation’s regulatory safeguards and Wall Street’s capture and abuse of America’s public pension funds — charging them huge management fees, while losing trillions of dollars of pension fund assets in risky investments. Wall Street developed with no regulation. Abuses abounded. Financial markets were corrupt. Then came the 1929 Crash, a wealth destruction event that ended the dreams of an American generation. The Pecora hearings exposed self-dealing and fraud by Wall Street bankers. Wall Street faced ruin. But instead of wiping out Wall Street or nationalizing the banks, we chose to save capitalism and protect investors — by creating a new system of highly regulated financial markets. Congress created the SEC to oversee stock exchanges, require honest accounting and disclosure by corporations and broke up (and strictly controlled) the Wall Street banks. In time, this new regulatory framework created the greatest age of economic growth and prosperity in history. Despite periodic recessions and bear markets — there were no more investor wealth destruction events. As the U.S. became the world’s financial powerhouse, no one got more powerful than the Wall Street banks and their corporate allies. Then they set about undoing the very regulatory framework that had saved them. As politics came to depend on massive infusions of cash, no one provided more of it than corporations and Wall Street banks. They complained that regulation was restricting American competitiveness and economic growth — our citizenry was seduced by promises of greater growth and prosperity. Government, which had actually been the key to the solution, became portrayed as the problem. They captured Congress. And then came the regulatory teardown. Congress deregulated the S&Ls. Then it enacted severe cut backs on investor protections and curtailed their right to sue. Glass-Steagall was repealed — allowing the long forbidden financial giants — investment and commercial banks — to recombine. The Wall Street/ Corporate alliance used its power to see that regulatory agencies passed into the hands of appointees who were hostile to the regulations they were supposed to enforce. Investor protection rules were diluted. A pro-corporate Supreme Court curtailed suits against banks and corporations. The result was behemoth banks, less regulatory oversight and less accountability. So, what came from this era of de-regulation? Increased competitiveness, economic growth, wealth and prosperity? No — instead we got repeated waves of financial fraud and wealth destruction events. First came the S&L blowup of the mid-1980s. Over 3,000 S&Ls collapsed. A few years later it was the 2000-2001 dot.com/telecommunications meltdowns epitomized by WorldCom and Enron. Most recently, our major financial institutions were rocked by scandal — the worst crash since 1929. Investors lost over $20 trillion in these three massive wealth destruction events, which were the result of the teardown of the regulatory framework that had been erected over the prior 70 years to control our financial markets and protect investors. America’s public pension plans — guardians of the life savings of countless working people — were the biggest victims of these wealth destruction events. A pension system is a bet on the future — some money is set aside currently, but not enough to pay all the promised benefits. So, how pension funds are invested and safeguarded is key. Originally, many states required pension funds to invest in safe, interest-bearing bonds. But Wall Street could not make a lot of money from that, so it bank-rolled initiatives and legislation to repeal these protections and permit pension funds to be invested in the stuff they make big profits by peddling. Then Wall Street money managers captured pension funds’ investment portfolios by assuring trustees that ever-higher stock prices would pay for the retirement promises. Charging enormous fees, they made risky stock market bets, putting up to 80% of pension plan assets in the stock market. The Wall Street wisdom that ever-rising stock prices would fund pension plan promises was wrong. In fact, we have seen three major equity wealth destruction events in last 20 years. As a result, the financial situation of our public employee pension funds is precarious. These funds lost hundreds of billions in the S&L disaster and the 2001-2002 market crash. After the 2001-2002 wipeout — guided by Wall Street — fund trustees took much greater risks to try to make up for the prior losses. They poured billions into hedge funds, private equity, speculative real estate and that special Wall Street invention — collateralized debt obligations. Then, in the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the losses of public funds were stupendous. 109 state funds lost $865 billion in about one year. CalPERS lost $72 billion! Now virtually all of these funds are now grossly under-funded. New Jersey and Illinois are each over $50 billion underwater . Why are our public pension systems and plans in such precarious financial condition? Of course there are some examples of excessive pensions, of double-dipping and of “gaming” the system to “goose” the pension amount. But these are few in number. And, even in the aggregate, the financial impact of these excesses pale in comparison to the gigantic investment losses of these pension funds. So let’s place the fault where it really belongs — not with working people — but with Wall Street banks. Who made money on these risky investment gambles? Who takes pension fund trustees to play golf and on so-called “educational” junkets at lush resorts to enjoy lavish dinners? Wall Street. The inappropriate investments that caused these massive pension fund losses were not an accident. The pension fund field caught the Wall Street contagion — financial corruption. It’s called “Pay to Play.” The SEC saw it years ago but, controlled by anti-regulation political appointees, it did nothing. So a nationwide system of political contributions to elected officials who sit on fund boards and payoffs and kickbacks to politically well-connected “Placement Agents” to steer fund money to Wall Street became widespread. Not surprisingly, the investments obtained by “pay-to-play” kickbacks and contributions have generated horrific losses. An investment officer of the California Public Employee Pension Fund was forced to resign — he got an all-expense-paid trip to NYC from an investment group that got $600 million from the fund. The middle men on that deal — two former top CalPERs officials — got some $20 million to arrange this placement. Two other former CalPERS officials have been sued by the Attorney General for taking $50 million in placement fees to steer pension investments. CalPERs lost hundreds of millions on such investments. Alan Hevesi — the former head of the New York State Fund — pleaded guilty to doling out billions in that Fund’s assets to favored managers in return for benefits. The SEC has finally outlawed this system of bribes and kickbacks. But too late — the damage has already been done to the pension funds. Nationwide, public pension funds lost billions on these types of corrupt investments with Wall Street types. The horrible deficit numbers funds admit to actually hide a far more terrible reality. To determine how well a fund is “funded” it uses an assumed rate of return. It estimates how much the fund will earn on its investment portfolio in the future. For decades, public pension funds have assumed 7.5%-8%, even 9% annual growth, i.e., over 100% compounded over 10 years. Fat chance! Today, pension funds are engaged in massive deceptions to conceal the true extent of their funding deficits. They are concealing the massive black holes that haunt public budgets. These ridiculous 7.5%-9.0% assumed rates of return are not “little white lies” — they are Everest-sized whoppers. If the three big California Public Funds used a 4.5%-5% rate of return instead of the 7.5%-8% they now use, these funds would be $500 billion under-funded — 10 times the $50 billion shortfall they admit to. Since this is a nationwide deception going on in virtually all public plans, try extrapolating that out. Public employee funds are probably $3 or $4 trillion underwater. The massive shortfalls we now face exist despite prior “Bull Markets” and the current rally. And the next round of excess of a still under-regulated Wall Street will produce another wealth destruction event that will erase recent gains. This is no academic matter. The time to keep the retirement promises is now upon us. In the next several years, some 77 million U.S. baby boomers — including millions of teachers and public service workers — will enter retirement. Unfortunately, the U.S. public pension system has become a fraud-infested house of cards. Wisconsin shows us this house of cards is starting to collapse, sparking a major political battle. The conservatives will “scapegoat” public employees as a privileged — protected — class. But it was not firemen, cops, clerks, or teachers (or their unions) who lost trillions of dollars in risky investments in an under-regulated stock market over the past 20 years. The Wall Street money managers lost it in investments acquiesced in by the pension fund trustees they had wined and dined. It’s the same old story. The bankers pocket gigantic fees. The privileged few get fat. Ordinary people get run over. And now are even to be blamed — even punished — for a mess they did not create. We cannot allow these public pension plans to collapse. Nor can we break our promises to workers who relied in good faith on promised pensions. Fortunately, there is a solution that could help protect retirees and at the same time help finance our huge federal deficit — if we act fast. First — stop allowing Wall Street money managers to speculate with workers’ retirement savings in risky equities and other crazy investments. Second — create a new 7% or 8% inflation-indexed U.S. Treasury bond only for retirement funds, in staggered 10-30 year maturities. Require all pension plans to buy and hold these bonds. To allow an orderly transition — require that over the next seven years — 80%-90% of all pension plan assets must be put in these safe, high-yield bonds. These bonds will provide low-cost returns for pension funds. This will stop Wall Street’s gouging the funds with huge fees and speculating with workers’ retirement savings. This solution will also help finance our huge federal deficit. While the interest rate is high — we taxpayers are going to end up paying to solve this problem one way or the other. And, at least this way, the interest payments will go to support our fellow retired citizens — not the Chinese. It’s a simple, elegant solution — but Wall Street and the politicians they control will never permit it. William S. Lerach, is a national lecturer, writer and investor advocate. As a practicing attorney, he recovered $45 billion for investors, including $7.2 billion for the victims of the Enron fraud.

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State And Local Budget Cuts Are Slowing U.S. Economy

February 26, 2011

WASHINGTON — Deep spending cuts by state and local governments pose a growing threat to an economy that is already grappling with high unemployment, depressed home prices and the surging cost of oil. Lawmakers at state capitols and city halls are slashing jobs and programs, arguing that some pain now is better than a lot more later. But the cuts are coming at a price – weaker growth at the national level. The clearest sign to date was a report Friday on U.S. gross domestic product for the final three months of 2010. The government lowered its growth estimate, pointing to larger-than-expected cuts by state and local governments. The report suggested that worsening state budget problems could hold back the recovery by putting more people out of work and reducing consumer spending. Across the country, governors and lawmakers are proposing broad cutbacks – lowering fees paid to nursing homes in Florida, reducing health insurance subsidies for lower-income Pennsylvanians, closing prisons in New York state and scaling back programs for elderly and disabled Californians. “The massive financial problems at the state and local levels have and will continue to restrain growth,” said economist Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors. State and local governments account for 91 percent of all government spending on primary education, according to the Brookings Institution. And they provide 71 percent of higher-education spending. States also account for more than 70 percent of spending on roads, bridges and other infrastructure. But those same governments cut spending at a 2.4 percent rate at the end of last year. And economists predict they will slash their budgets by up to 2.5 percent this year – potentially the sharpest reduction since 1943. The deepest cuts are expected to occur in the first six months of this year. The worst cuts so far_ 3.8 percent – came in the January-to-March period of 2010. That was the sharpest quarterly drop since late 1983, when the U.S. economy was recovering from a severe recession. Most economists think the cutbacks this year will exert an even bigger economic drag than last year. Newly elected Republican governors are leading the charge. They’re acting on campaign pledges to shrink government to meet budget gaps. They favor smaller governments with lower taxes and less regulation, which they say will boost private-sector growth and job creation. Some Democrats – including Govs. Andrew Cuomo of New York and Jerry Brown of California – have followed suit. They’re pushing for cuts to social programs and concessions from unions. The governors’ push for painful cuts comes just as they gather in Washington this weekend for their winter meeting. “We have to balance our budgets. We have to address costs. And we also have to move forward at the same time,” Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, head of the Democratic Governors Association, said after his group met with President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden at the White House. No state has attracted more attention than Wisconsin. Pointing to the state’s projected $3.6 billion gap, Republican Gov. Scott Walker wants to strip state workers of collective bargaining rights. He also wants them to contribute more to their pensions and health insurance costs. The budget fight has taken center stage in Congress. Democrats are bending to Republican demands for spending cuts to avoid a shutdown of the federal government next week. The reduction in federal spending has a direct effect on states and municipalities. They depend on money from Washington to keep schools operating, put police officers on the street and subsidize public services like job training. The end of federal stimulus programs is also widening state deficits. Many governors, including those in Florida, New York and Colorado, are pursuing tighter budgets. Their proposals include laying off public workers and teachers, reducing spending for education and health care, and ending some social services. They’re also targeting public pension funds and health insurance plans and seeking larger contributions from public employees. State and local budget experts fear the cutbacks will intensify this year. States are struggling to close budget gaps of about $125 billion for the upcoming budget year, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. That’s a smaller gap than states faced in the past two years. But this time, governors won’t have federal stimulus funds to help close the deficits. And state governments, in turn, are reducing the aid they send to local governments. “We suspect that these cutbacks are going to deepen over the next couple of quarters,” said Mark Muro, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “It’s likely we’re only beginning to see the state and local drag.” In Florida, newly elected Republican Gov. Rick Scott wants to reduce the state’s budget 5 percent. To get there, he wants to slash 8,600 state jobs and reduce Medicaid costs through a 5 percent cut in fees paid to hospitals and nursing homes, but not doctors. Health-insurance cuts are popular with many Republican governors. Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett, facing a projected $4 billion-plus deficit, said he can’t find the cash to extend a program that subsidizes health care for 41,000 lower-income adults and is nearly out of money. Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer is suggesting that the state drop Medicaid coverage for 250,000 low-income people to make up about half of the state’s projected shortfall of about $1 billion. It’s not just Republicans demanding tough fiscal medicine. In New York, Gov. Cuomo has said up to 9,800 state employees could be laid off if public-employee unions don’t agree to millions of dollars in concessions. The newly elected Democrat has also proposed $1 billion in cuts to New York’s Medicaid program, with its 4.7 million recipients. He also wants to close some prisons, freeze wages for nearly 200,000 state workers, cut $1.5 billion in aid to public schools and chop 10 percent from the state’s operating budget. In California, Brown has imposed a state hiring freeze and is proposing cuts to a host of social programs that serve the poor, elderly and disabled. He is also seeking more than $12 billion in tax extensions and fees. The state is grappling with a $26.6 billion fiscal crisis. State spending represents just a fraction of the nation’s economic activity. Consumers typically spend roughly six times more than state and local governments do. So a big increase in consumer spending can offset public-sector cuts. U.S. consumers boosted spending at a 4.1 percent annual rate in the final quarter of 2010 year; state and local governments cut spending at a 2.4 percent pace. If consumers had spent just 0.4 percentage point more, they would have offset the state and local government cutbacks. That said, layoffs hurt consumer spending. And states and local governments are cutting their payrolls. State and local governments have cut more than 400,000 jobs in the past two years. Budget pressures will force an average of 20,000 more job cuts each month for the rest of this year, estimates Jon Shure of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a left-leaning think tank. State tax revenue has begun to grow again after falling sharply in recent years. But many governors are now proposing tax cuts as a way to encourage business activity, Shure said. That’s likely to escalate pressure for spending cuts because most states must balance their budgets each year. ___ Contributing to this story were Associated Press writers Christopher S. Rugaber in Washington; Sandra Chereb in Carson City, Nev.; Juliet Williams in Sacramento, Calif.; Paul Davenport in Phoenix; Geoff Mulvihill in Haddonfield, N.J.; Michael Virtanen in Albany, N.Y.; Colleen Slevin in Denver; Marc Levy in Harrisburg, Pa.; Jim Davenport in Columbia, S.C.; Bill Kaczor in Tallahassee, Fla.; and Jonathan Cooper in Salem, Ore.

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Tim Geithner’s Gamble

February 26, 2011

LOS ANGELES — In a recent interview, United States Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner laid out his view of the nature of world economic growth and the role of the US financial sector. It is a deeply disturbing vision, one that amounts to a huge, uninformed gamble with the future of the American economy — and that suggests that Geithner remains the senior public official worldwide who is most in thrall to the self-serving ideology of big banks.

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‘Wal-Mart Of Weed’ Slated To Open

February 26, 2011

A retail store billing itself as “the Wal-Mart of weed” will open its doors in Sacramento tomorrow, the Sacramento Bee reports . The 10,000-square-foot weGrow outlet, advertised as a one-stop shop for legal growers seeking supplies and training, claims the honor of being the industry’s first-ever national franchise. Look for outposts of the self-proclaimed “first honest hydro store,” which started as a solo warehouse operation in Oakland last year, to sprout up in Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, and even New Jersey in the coming months. The Ganja Galleria doesn’t sell any actual pot–it just sells supplies, provides classes, and offers an on-site doctor to help customers choose their favorite strain. According to the Bee , the store’s founder chose its opening location strategically. And he has no qualms being forthcoming about its purpose: “I just thought it was a statement to have something close to the state Capitol,” said Dhar Mann, who founded the original iGrow in January 2010. “It’s a statement of how progressive the industry has become. We’re all about coming out of the shadows.” With California, 14 other states and the District of Columbia legalizing marijuana for medical use, the hydroponics industry is exploding. But, unlike weGrow, most hydroponics outlets avoid any mention of marijuana, billing themselves only as generic suppliers for people growing anything from peppers to rosemary. weGrow’s presence has led CBS news to ask an essential question : Is medical marijuana going mainstream?

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Craig Kanalley: Resume Tips From Creator Of Viral Resume

February 26, 2011

“This is insane,” the now Internet-famous Chris Spurlock told me Friday evening. Hours after his resume went viral on Twitter and Facebook, after it appeared in a blog post on HuffPost College , I spoke with the University of Missouri senior by phone. Did he have any indication this would happen? “You never have any idea what’s going to be viral and what’s not,” Spurlock said. “You have videos like this little kid biting his finger, and millions are in love with it; no one can predict that.” He admits his resume isn’t quite on the scale of “Charlie bit my finger,” but as someone who tracks viral memes and the real-time Web as part of my job, I can say that he’s absolutely right virality is difficult to predict. That’s the beautiful thing about it and what makes the Internet so random and fun. The viral creation started in the simplest of ways: Spurlock was about to apply to some jobs, and one night, he decided to hop on Illustrator for a bit and doodle. “A couple hours later, I went to bed, and in the morning, I decided it wasn’t entirely useless,” he said. This guy isn’t your average doodler though. Spurlock says he has a “true love for infographics,” and his portfolio certainly proves that . For someone who wants to pursue journalistic visualizations for a career, what better way to show that than a resume built out of infographics? One of the most interesting things about his viral resume , it got a facelift after he spoke to a friend who is a designer and recommended changing the color scheme. The original creation was multi-colored (view it below), which Spurlock says may have too closely resembled a bag of Skittles. Spurlock’s self-criticism aside, I’d say the colored version is pretty awesome… you can view his “final version” (with a blue color scheme) here . The college senior and St. Louis area native plans to graduate in May, and he is indeed actively seeking a job post-graduation. Any employer looking to add to its design team or with interest in infographics or visual journalism would be wise to give Spurlock a close look. For job seekers seeking to repeat his success of having their own resume go viral, or just looking for some advice from the brains behind this resume, here’s Spurlock’s advice (paraphrased): (1) MAKE IT YOU: You have to put a little bit of yourself into everything you produce. Listen to professors, people giving feedback, but at the end of the day you have to live with the work you produce. (2) CONSIDER WHERE YOU’RE APPLYING: A resume like that isn’t for everyone and not for every position even, but be creative and if they don’t like it, you probably wouldn’t want to work there anyway. (3) HAVE FUN: At the end of the day, I was just doodling on my laptop, it’s something I enjoy. Have a fun feel to it and don’t take yourself too seriously, but also do it in a way so you’re seen as professional. (4) SHARE WITH OTHERS: Don’t be afraid to push your work out there before it’s finished. It’s a great way to get feedback and there’s no harm in asking for help. (5) REACT TO CONSTRUCTIVE CRITICISM: Whether you’re 20 or 75, you always have something to learn. Even though criticism is hard to hear, there’s always something to make it better. See what people think to do just that. And that last piece of advice is really key. As his piece has gone viral, with hundreds of tweets, Facebook shares, and Facebook “likes,” and several thousand pageviews, Spurlock has gotten no shortage of criticism. He’s taken that in stride. “At first I told myself I wouldn’t go through it all,” he said of the criticism. “But then I thought, that’s the only way you can improve yourself. That’s when you can learn more about yourself, looking past that excitement and taking in that constructive criticism.” Smart guy. He will find a job, and soon, I’m sure.

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Ian Fletcher: In Praise of Mercantilism (or Why Economic History Isn’t Boring)

February 26, 2011

Does economic history hold a giant clue for getting America out of its present trade mess? Yes, because it debunks the idea that free trade is how nations become prosperous. Instead, it shows that nations win at international trade by playing a 400-year-old game called mercantilism. Let’s look at England, for example. The great Adam Smith, founder of modern economics, published his epoch-making free-trade tract The Wealth of Nations , the origin of endless subsequent delusions, in 1776. But he was a hypocrite, for Britain in 1776 was not a blank slate upon which free markets and free trade could work their magic. It was instead the beneficiary of several prior centuries of protectionism and industrial policy. In the words of British economist William Cunningham: For a period of two hundred years [c. 1600-1800], the English nation knew very clearly what it wanted. Under all changes of dynasty and circumstances the object of building up national power was kept in view; and economics, though not yet admitted to the circle of the sciences, proved an excellent servant, and gave admirable suggestions as to the manner in which this aim might be accomplished. England in this era was, in fact, a classic authoritarian (this is long before English democracy) developmentalist state: a Renaissance South Korea , with kings rather than the military dictators who ruled South Korea for most of the Cold War period. English industrialization must actually be traced 300 years prior to Adam Smith, to events like Henry VII’s imposition of a tariff on woolen goods in 1489. King Henry’s aim was to wrest the wool weaving trade, then the most technologically advanced major industry in Europe, away from Flanders (the Dutch half of present-day Belgium), where it had been thriving upon exports of English wool. Flemish producers were entrenched behind huge capital investments, which gave them economies of scale sufficient to outcompete fledgling entrants into the industry. So only government action could get England a toehold. Even in the 15th century, there was an awareness that being an exporter of agricultural raw materials was a dead end–a problem impoverished African and Latin American nations wrestle with to this day. And there was an awareness that free trade will not lift a nation out of this predicament: you need some well-chosen protectionism. Henry VII created, in fact, the first national industrial policy of the modern era, long before the Industrial Revolution introduced artificial energy sources like steam power. A whole interlocking series of now-forgotten policy moves underlay the rise of English industry; what all these measures had in common was that protectionism was essential to making them work . In the words of economist John Culbertson of the University of Wisconsin and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors: Step after step in the cumulative economic rise of England was directly caused by government action or depended upon supportive government action: the prohibition of importation of Spanish wool by Henry I, the revision of land-tenure arrangements to permit the development of large-scale sheep raising, Edward III’s attracting of Flemish weavers to England and then prohibiting of the wearing of foreign cloth, the termination of the privileges in London of the Hanseatic League under Edward VI, the near-war between England under Elizabeth I and the Hanseatic League, which supported the rise of English shipping. And then there was the prohibition of export of English wool (which damaged the Flemish textile industry and stimulated that of England), the encouragement of production of dyed and finished cloth in England, the use of England’s dominance in textile manufacture to push the Hanseatic League out of foreign markets for other products… The aim of English policy was what would today be called “climbing the value chain”: deliberately leveraging existing economic activity to break into more-sophisticated related activities. Henry VII’s advisors got their economic ideas ultimately from the city-states of Renaissance Italy, where economics had been born as a component of Civic Humanism, their now-forgotten governing ideology. The name for this forgotten developmentalist wisdom of early modern Europe that has stuck is “mercantilism.” One of the great myths of contemporary economics is that mercantilism was an analytically vacuous bundle of gold-hoarding prejudices. It was, in fact, a remarkably sophisticated attempt, given the limited conceptual apparatus of the time, to advance national economic development by means that would be familiar and congenial to the technocrats of 21st-century Tokyo, Beijing, or Seoul. (And believe me, they’re still using these techniques against us.) For 400 years, this is how former Third-World nations have become former Third World nations. Mercantilists invented many economic concepts still in use today, such as the balance of payments, value added, and the embodied labor content of imports and exports. They championed the economic interests of the nation as a whole at a time when special interests (notably royal monopolies) were an even bigger problem than today. They began with obvious ideas like taxing foreign luxury goods. They progressed to the idea that exporting raw materials for foreigners to process was bad if the nation could process them itself. They understood that nations rose economically by imitating the industries of already rich nations (first the more primitive industries, then the more sophisticated) and that low relative wages were the key advantage of underdeveloped nations in this game. How little has changed! Mercantilists saw free markets as a useful tool in economics, but not the sum total of economic wisdom. Even their much-mocked obsession with the accumulation of bullion was not as irrational as it is usually depicted as being, given that under a monetary system based on gold, accumulating it is the only way to expand the money supply and drive down interest rates, a boon to investment then as now. Mercantilism, in fact, created the modern European economy and thus made possible the colonial power that economically shaped much of the rest of the world. It is thus the foundation of modern capitalism itself. Anyhow: Britain functioned on a mercantilist basis for centuries before its much misunderstood experiment with free trade began. Even as late as the beginning of the 19th century, Britain’s average tariff on manufactured goods was roughly 50 percent–the highest of any major nation in Europe. And even after Britain embraced free trade in most goods, it continued to tightly regulate trade in strategic capital goods, such as the machinery for the mass production of textiles, in order to forestall its rivals. This was rational, as the win-win logic of free trade starts to break down if productive capital is mobile between nations or if free trade induces productivity growth abroad. After Britain embraced free trade in the mid-19th century, its long economic decline , of course, began. Today, the United States is making the same mistake, having mistaken the temporary tactical advantages of free trade for a nation at the peak of its economic power for a fundamental strategic truth. Meanwhile, our rivals, especially but not only in the Far East, hold firm to the mercantilist principles that we ourselves employed for 150 years. Mercantilism has somewhat different application in developed, rather than developing, nations, but its fundamentals still hold good. At the very least, we need to defend ourselves against mercantilist aggression against us, something we are not doing .

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Banks Expect To Be Punished By Government

February 26, 2011

Three of the nation’s largest banks said Friday that they expect to be sanctioned by the U.S. government for their foreclosure practices, securities filings show. The disclosures come on the heels of reports federal regulators are nearing a multi-billion dollar deal to settle allegations that the biggest banks abused borrowers and illegally foreclosed on homes. The months-long federal probe found significant and widespread deficiencies in how firms service home loans, which involves collecting payments, modifying delinquent loans, and foreclosing on borrowers upon default. A “small number” of foreclosures should not have occurred, a top bank regulator told a Senate committee last week after his agency surveyed less than 3,000 loan files. The filings are the first acknowledgment by the targeted banks that they’re likely to face significant penalties arising from the investigations. Wells Fargo & Co., the fourth-largest bank by assets, said it is “likely” at least one government agency “will initiate some type of enforcement action against Wells Fargo, which may include civil money penalties.” The firm added that its litigation expenses could reach $1.2 billion beyond what it’s already set aside for lawsuits and investigations, according to its filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission . Wells Fargo handles $1.8 trillion in home loans, second-most in the U.S., according to Inside Mortgage Finance , a trade publication and data provider. Taxpayer-owned Ally Financial Inc., the nation’s fifth-largest handler of home mortgages, said in its annual report that it expects it “will become subject to fines, penalties, sanctions or other adverse actions.” “Any of these potential actions could have a material adverse impact on us,” the firm noted in its filing with the SEC . SunTrust Banks Inc., the eighth-largest mortgage servicer, said it expects regulators to fine the firm for its alleged abuses, according to its filing . The nation’s 15th-largest lender by assets also outlined a settlement agreement it expects to adhere to based on demands from regulators. SunTrust, along with other large firms, will likely have to acknowledge they improperly handled documents when trying to foreclose on homeowners; failed to devote sufficient resources when handling mortgages; and failed to develop systems to prevent such problems, the bank said in its filing. “We expect that such a consent order will require us to implement substantial additional operational processes and reviews within a certain time frame,” the firm said. “We also expect that such regulators may seek civil monetary penalties at a later time.” Separately, the Georgia-based lender said that it recently discovered that about 4,000 of its foreclosure cases, or 15 percent of active proceedings, contained various deficiencies, joining other large banks that found similar weaknesses after conducting such reviews last fall. Documents will have to be re-filed with various courts, the firm said, temporarily halting home repossessions. It added that it doesn’t expect the findings to have a “material adverse” impact. The three lenders are part of the federal probe into improper — and at times illegal — foreclosure practices that have roiled the housing market. About a dozen federal regulators, along with attorneys general in all 50 states, are conducting both civil and criminal probes into the banks’ mortgage practices. The Huffington Post reported Thursday that federal regulators could demand as much as $30 billion in penalties from the 14 largest mortgage firms. State regulators, who at present are only examining the five largest servicers, are looking to exact even heftier fines from the targeted firms. Bank of America and Citigroup, the largest and third-largest lenders by assets, respectively, disclosed in their annual reports that they, too, could face fines and other penalties associated with their handling of mortgage documents. Citigroup said the federal and state probes “could result in fines, penalties, [and] other equitable remedies, such as principal reduction programs,” according to its filing with the SEC . The company added that it could face “significant legal, negative reputational and other costs.” Citigroup handles about $602 billion in home mortgages, Inside Mortgage Finance data show. Bank of America, which handles $2.1 trillion in home mortgages, said the probes could “significantly adversely affect its reputation.” It’s the nation’s biggest mortgage firm, according to Inside Mortgage Finance. The investigations could result in “material fines, penalties, equitable remedies…or other enforcement actions, and result in significant legal costs in responding to governmental investigations and additional litigation,” Bank of America said in its report . It added it may be subject to additional lawsuits from borrowers and other parties. The bank, which temporarily suspended home repossessions last year after finding deficiencies in its foreclosure practices, said it expects to resume foreclosure proceedings in some states this quarter. However, it continues to re-file documents in those cases in which it found shortcomings, Bank of America said in its filing. ************************* Shahien Nasiripour is a business reporter for The Huffington Post. You can send him an e-mail ; bookmark his page ; subscribe to his RSS feed ; follow him on Twitter ; friend him on Facebook ; become a fan ; and/or get e-mail alerts when he reports the latest news. He can be reached at 646-274-2455.

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Video: McCullough Says Obama Should Call For Energy Summit

February 26, 2011

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) — Glenn McCullough, former head of the Tennessee Valley Authority, talks about the outlook for alternative energy. McCullough, talking with Pimm Fox on Bloomberg Television’s “Taking Stock,” says President Barack Obama should call for a “Camp David-like energy summit.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Bernstein Seeks Human Rights `Basics’ for Middle East

February 26, 2011

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) — Robert Bernstein, founder of Human Rights Watch and former chief executive officer of Random House Inc., and Richard Kemp, the former commander of British troops in Afghanistan, talk about their newly formed watchdog group Advancing Human Rights. They speak with Pimm Fox on Bloomberg Television’s “Taking Stock.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Britain’s economy contracts, while BoE members split four-ways

February 26, 2011

Britain’s economy contracts, while BoE members split four-ways

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Fluctuations controlled Asian financial markets and Japanese data dominated the week

February 26, 2011

Fluctuations controlled Asian financial markets and Japanese data dominated the week

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A mixed week for the U.S full of events and crucial data…

February 26, 2011

A mixed week for the U.S full of events and crucial data…

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Japanese Yen: Directional Outlook Clouded, Volatility Likely

February 26, 2011

Japanese Yen: Directional Outlook Clouded, Volatility Likely

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New Zealand Dollar will Realign with Risk Trends after Quake Toll

February 26, 2011

New Zealand Dollar will Realign with Risk Trends after Quake Toll

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Playfair Mining Ltd. (CVE:PLY) Will be Exhibiting in Booth #2351/2353 at the 2011 PDAC Conference in Toronto

February 26, 2011

Playfair Mining Ltd. (CVE:PLY) Will be Exhibiting in Booth #2351/2353 at the 2011 PDAC Conference in Toronto

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Gold Eyes $1430/oz as Middle East/North Africa Tensions Escalate

February 26, 2011

Gold Eyes $1430/oz as Middle East/North Africa Tensions Escalate

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Australian Dollar Direction Hinges on US Nonfarm Payrolls, S&P 500

February 26, 2011

Australian Dollar Direction Hinges on US Nonfarm Payrolls, S&P 500

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Canadian Dollar Due For Correction as Interest Rate Expectations Rise

February 26, 2011

Canadian Dollar Due For Correction as Interest Rate Expectations Rise

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British Pound to Face Headwinds as Interest Rate Expectations Falter

February 26, 2011

British Pound to Face Headwinds as Interest Rate Expectations Falter

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US Dollar Recovery Depends on Nonfarm Payrolls, Dow Jones

February 26, 2011

US Dollar Recovery Depends on Nonfarm Payrolls, Dow Jones

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EURUSD Direction Dependent on the S&P 500 and ECB Rate Decision

February 26, 2011

EURUSD Direction Dependent on the S&P 500 and ECB Rate Decision

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Euro Immunity to Risk Trends May Fade as ECB Decision Approaches

February 26, 2011

Euro Immunity to Risk Trends May Fade as ECB Decision Approaches

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Dollar’s Positive Correlation to Equities Won’t Likely Last for Long

February 26, 2011

Dollar’s Positive Correlation to Equities Won’t Likely Last for Long

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India-Elemec wins MEP contract in
USD400m Mumbai project

February 26, 2011

India-Elemec wins MEP contract in
USD400m Mumbai project

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Toyota recall

February 26, 2011

Toyota recall

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Volkswagen’s profit up to USD9.4 billion

February 26, 2011

Volkswagen’s profit up to USD9.4 billion

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Hyundai to develop seventh overseas plant

February 26, 2011

Hyundai to develop seventh overseas plant

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US economy slows down in Q4

February 26, 2011

US economy slows down in Q4

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Google’s new search to banish low quality sites

February 26, 2011

Google’s new search to banish low quality sites

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Video: Phelps Says U.S. Workers `Need a Voice’ Through Unions

February 25, 2011

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) — Edmund Phelps, who won the Nobel Prize for economics in 2006 and directs the Center on Capitalism and Society at Columbia University, talks about the role of unions in U.S. society and the challenge of closing state budget deficits. Wisconsin’s Assembly passed Governor Scott Walker’s limits on the collective-bargaining power of government workers’ unions, ending a debate that began Feb. 22, while Senate Democrats remained out of state to block the bill. Phelps talks with Carol Massar and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Dan Dorfman: Risky Roadmap to $7 a Gallon Gas

February 25, 2011

Like you, I have no idea how far the outbreak of the political unrest will spread. Not so the experts, who basically echo the signature line of the late comedian, Jimmy Durante, “You ain’t seen nothin’ yet.” Simply put, that means, some Persian Gulf watchers say, more political uprisings, swelling strife throughout the Middle East, tougher times ahead for self-professed dictators, likely oil supply disruptions, higher crude prices and a bigger bite at the gas pump, perhaps as much as $7 a gallon. One of Wall Street’s premier energy analysts, Oppenheimer & Co.’s Fadel Gheit, tells me the market really doesn’t appear to grasp the gravity of the situation. “There is no cure for what’s going on,” he says. What we’re looking at, he believes, are likely internal conflicts in such oil-producing countries as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Iran. In total, the six produce about 21.2 million barrels of oil a day, which is the bulk of the Persian Gulf’s daily output of approximately 24 million barrels or 27 percent of global oil supply. These countries are trying to buy time, says Gheit, but their promises of some reform and handing out money to some of the disenchanted just won’t work. What the people in these countries want is substantial change — namely freedom and the heads of the regimes to pack their bags and scram. And unless that happens, he says, there will be more internal conflicts and more protests, accompanied by rising oil prices. “The question,” says Gheit, “is how long can the rulers keep the unrest in the closet? The answer: not long, they really can’t anymore.” How soon is the next crisis? “Only a matter of time,” says Gheit, who thinks things could get especially violent if any unrest were to take hold in Saudi Arabia, which he believes would be met by a major crackdown on any rioters. Michael Larson, a market strategist, at Florida-based Weiss Research, takes it one step further, citing additional anguish from the unrest and demonstrations that are creating higher oil prices, In particular, he points to adding more fuel to the inflationary fires and the slowing of global economic growth. Fred Dickson, the chief investment strategist of D.A. Davidson & Co. in Great Falls, Montana, tosses in another ugly aspect of higher oil costs, notably as it relates to the market — pressure on second and third quarter earnings forecasts — which he says would likely temper those booming stock prices. Apparently, it already is, with Wall Street waking up to the mounting threats stemming from higher oil prices, which it practically ignored during the Egyptian protests and then became fearful of during the Libyan uprising. Indicative of this, the U.S. stock market has gotten whacked in recent sessions, with the Dow skidding 322 points on three consecutive losing sessions. Speculation is rife about how high we’re likely to see oil prices rise. Take your pick. The numbers are all over the lot. In recent days, we’ve heard again from the energy experts that oil — which recently ballooned to a 2.5-year high and is currently trading at a tad under $100 a barrel– is on its way to between $110 to $130. And maybe to new highs, it’s said, should the unrest spread to oil biggie Saudi Arabia, which produces nearly 10 million barrels a day and has said it will make up for any shortfalls due to the turmoil in Libya. The peak in oil, $147.27 a barrel, occurred in July 2008. There are also some flamboyant forecasts around that oil could shoot up to $200 to $300 a barrel, but the general thinking is that such numbers would require serious supply disruptions from major names in the Persian Gulf, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran. Nomura Securities offers another perspective, warning that the price of crude could reach $220 if more production is halted in Libya and Algeria. At the moment, the general view is that the oil price, justifiably, carries about a $10 to $15 a barrel risk premium. What about prices at the pump? Here again, take your pick on how high is high. The preferred media number seems to be that the nation’s roughly 200 million licensed drivers are looking at about $5 a gallon down the pike. That’s essentially the figure that’s making the headlines these days. The national average is $3.17 a gallon, Triple A tells me, but it’s likely few cents higher now as you read this, given the recent jump in oil from the turmoil in Libya. By spring, Triple A figures the price at the pump will climb to between $3.50 to $3.75. A fatter price — between $4 and $4.25 a gallon — is envisioned on July 4 by Dickson, who feels market nervousness over what’s happening in the Mideast is bound to drive oil prices higher. Ditto at the gas pump. An even heftier price tag — $6 to $7 a gallon, which would mean a sudden big jump in oil — is viewed by some energy trackers as a realistic possibility should things get out of hand in Saudi Arabia. One of them, Hong Kong trader Selwyn Ortz, says “I wouldn’t rule that out even though there’s no shortage of oil right now.” “If Saudi Arabia is subject to the same kind of demonstrations and riots that have taken place in Egypt and Libya, a $30- to $40-a-barrel increase, maybe $50, is very plausible. No one can say it can’t happen because nobody knows, not in an era of revolutions. And if it does,” he says, “$7 a gallon could be a low-ball forecast.” As a rule of thumb, Gheit says, every $10-a barrel rise in the price of oil eventually equates to about $0.25-a gallon increase at the gas pump. Meanwhile, there’s no getting away from the severe impact of higher gas prices. As West Coast economist Madeline Schnapp recently explained it to me, every penny boost at the pump draws an estimated $1.5 billion out-of-household cash flow. In her neck of the woods, gas runs $3.40 a gallon, up from $2.90 about six months ago, or $75 to fill up her SUV. That increase, she notes, adds up to a $60 million national tax on consumption. In other words, the chaos from the Mideast mess — be it militarily, financial, the unknowns from regime changes, a prelude to higher inflation numbers and otherwise — would seem to be far from over. It’s also worth poiinting out that 10 of the past 11 recessions since World War 11 can be directly related to sharply higher oil prices, which we’re now experiencing. What do you think? E-mail me at Dandordan@aol.com

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Robert Lenzner: Life Is Rigged For Oligarchs As Well As Ordinary Russians

February 25, 2011

In 2004 Mikhail Khodorkovsky was the richest man in Russia, according to Forbes, but Premier Vladimir Putin froze the shares of Yukos, his energy giant and drove his fortune down to a fraction of what it had been. Like all the oligarchs, who had more or less stolen their fortunes in assets once owned by the state, Khodokorvsky was warned by Putin not to interfere in politics and he would never be prosecuted for his economic crimes. But, the oligarch, a soft-spoken man, refused to submit to this threat from Putin, according to a documentary film called “VLAST” (for Power,) that I have seen prior to its PBS showing in 2 months. (Pilar Crespi, the producer and wife of my friend Stephen Robert, former CEO of Oppenheimer & Co., gave it to me). The multi-billionaire oligarch Khodokorvsky was sentenced to a long prison sentence then- and just weeks ago, when his case was on appeal, the oligarch’s sentence was extended to 2017. It’s a primitive system of justice that could never exist in the U.S. When the 47 year old Khodokorvsky appeared in court in November, he exclaimed that he was “ashamed for my country… the bureaucracy and law enforcement machine can do whatever it wants. There is no right of private property.” An aide to the judge who just extended the sentence, Natalya Vasileya, has just taken her life in her hands by appearing on television in Russia and explaining that it is “a rigged case” — that the presiding judge did not even write the decision. I profoundly hope that Ms. Vasileya will be safer than Forbes’ fearless Russian editor, Paul Klebnikov, who before he was assassinated on a Moscow street in 2004, had given several oligarchs grief by investigating and revealing their ruthless ways. This took place just weeks after Forbes published its first issue in Russia, listing the 100 richest men in that nation. At the time, Alexander Lebedev, listed at 25th richest in Russia, asked a friend to put him in touch with a Forbes senior editor. For hours uin a New York hotel I had to listen to Lebedev’s complaint that Forbes had endangered him and the other 99 oligarchs by publishing estimates of their wealth. I seem to recall that Lebedev, a former KGB officer stationed in London, was worth $1.4 billion from his holding in Russian airline, bank and hotel businesses. Nothing came of my meeting which was before Klebnikov was murdered, a crime that has never been solved. Paul was the only American journalist to be killed in Russia, and to this day it is utterly scandalous that no-one knows why. Shamefully, Putin has done nothing. What irony that today Lebedev believes he is Putin’s newest oligarch target. This week Lebedev sent an open letter to Putin- that got little if no publicity- complaining that was being persecuted and threatened with damages to his business empire . Lebedev owns two London newspapers ,The Independent and the London Evening Mail. His bank in Russia was raided last November, perhaps because he is supporting an opposition publication in Russia itself. No wonder few American citizens invest in the Russian stock market, where its energy giants sell at a 40-50% discount from their US competitors. No wonder that my friend, the author Susan Richards, tells me that Russia’s “entire edifice is infected, utterly corrupted. It’s not just property, business, governance; you buy your way out of your kid being conscripted; you buy your idiot kid into the best college.:” Ms. Richards, the author of a recent well received book on Russia, “Lost And Found In Russia, Lives In A Post-Soviet Landscape,” has written a perfectly brilliant bog for Forbes, entitled “It’s The Corruption, Stupid.” I recommend it and the book heartily. Have a look at her blog; “It’s The Corruption Stupid,’ which is going up with this piece. Edit

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Stan Emms to Head Up Stillwater’s Marathon PGM Project

February 25, 2011

BILLINGS, MT–(Marketwire – February 25, 2011) – STILLWATER MINING COMPANY ( NYSE : SWC ) announced today that Mr. Stan Emms has joined Stillwater Canada Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Stillwater Mining Company, as General Manager of the Company’s Marathon PGM Project.

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Video: TCW’s Sri-Kumar Says U.S. Economy Remains `Vulnerable’

February 25, 2011

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) — Komal Sri-Kumar, chief global strategist at TCW Group Inc., and Luisa Longo, a trader at TradeMaven Clearing LLC, talk about the impact of higher oil prices on the U.S. economy and the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative easing. They speak with Matt Miller, Carol Massar, Julie Hyman and Adam Johnson on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Stocks Advance as Consumer Confidence Exceeds Forecasts

February 25, 2011

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks rose, preventing the biggest weekly drop in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since August, as confidence among American consumers beat forecasts and climbed to the highest level in three years. Bloomberg’s Pimm Fox also speaks. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Eric Parker: Why We Need to Make It in America When We Build Our 21st Century Infrastructure

February 25, 2011

In his State of the Union address on January 25, President Obama said we must “out-build the rest of the world,” because without modern infrastructure, we cannot keep up in the 21st century. For us to “win the future,” we need to connect the dots between infrastructure and a national manufacturing strategy. Other countries, including Germany, China, India, the U.K., Brazil and Canada have one. Why don’t we? We cannot overlook the fact that we have been importing nearly all of our 21st century infrastructure in some key areas instead of building it ourselves – including light rail and high-speed rail. We should not have to buy our trains from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Japan and other countries. It’s not just about pride – it’s about jobs, patents and corporate taxes. Auto assembly plants in the U.S. that are owned by foreign manufacturers are not the same as if they were part of the Big Three because their top executives’ incomes, innovations and sales income flow back to their countries instead of staying here. We need to keep those management, engineering and manufacturing jobs here, those patents here and the corporate taxes here. When Obama announced his plan for the FY 2012 budget, it included $53 billion over six years for intercity rail (including new high-speed rail and current Amtrak operations) and $30 billion to establish a National Infrastructure Bank. As he noted in the SOTU, we built the Transcontinental Railroad. However, Bombardier (Canada) and Alstom (France) build Amtrak’s Acela trains in a joint venture. And Amtrak is spending $466 million to buy 70 electric locomotives from Siemens (Germany) for its (non-Acela) Northeast Regional and Keystone routes. We cannot afford to have another missed opportunity to revive our railroad manufacturing industry. We need to get GE Transportation (whose CEO, Jeff Immelt, is the chairman of the White House’s Council on Jobs and Competitiveness) into the business of building high-speed rail engines and passenger cars. Let’s look at two cities I lived in (Boston and Washington) and one that I visit regularly (New York City). The New York City Subway – the most-used subway system in the U.S. and fifth in the world when it comes to ridership – currently gets its rolling stock from Alstom and Kawasaki (Japan). The Massachusetts Bay Transit Authority gets its subway cars from Bombardier, and the newer Green Line streetcars came from AnsaldoBreda (Italy). Washington, D.C.’s Metro purchases its trains from CAF (Spain). Three dozen metropolitan areas in the U.S. have been buying from companies headquartered in different countries, but because they all did so individually, we failed to notice that we have the “economies of scale” necessary to make it a viable revenue stream for an American manufacturer. If we fail to act soon, another 40 planned light rail projects will be purchasing their trains from abroad. There is a glimmer of hope when it comes to our cities’ mass transit systems in American light rail manufacturer United Streetcar LLC of Portland, Oregon, but it’s a small company that uses a Skoda (Czech Republic) design and Siemens motors. We need to convince Boeing (parent of McDonnell Douglas) that if Bombardier and Kawasaki can build jets, subway trains and streetcars, then it too can expand from being just an aerospace company to a transportation one. After all, when we invest taxpayer money in mass transit, we should have American companies up to the task – especially when we are spending tens of billions of dollars every year. Last summer, then-House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) introduced the “Make It in America” agenda and Congressman Dan Lipinski’s (D-Ill.) National Manufacturing Strategy Act passed the House with overwhelming bipartisan support by 379-38, but the Senate did not vote on it before the end of the 111th Congress. Nearly four in five Americans support a national manufacturing strategy. If not for the Senate Republicans, we would have one. A few weeks ago, Congressman John Garamendi (D-Calif.) reintroduced legislation to encourage the domestic production of passenger rail equipment. However, the reality is that with the GOP controlling the House in the 112th Congress, it’s up to the White House and Senate to pick up the ball. We cannot win the future without 21st century infrastructure. We cannot win the future by buying our trains from foreign-owned companies. It’s time for our largest American companies to recall the words that Robert F. Kennedy (paraphrasing George Bernard Shaw) liked to close his speeches with, that “there are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why… I dream of things that never were and ask why not.” We can win the future. We will out-build the rest of the world. But when we do so, we must Make It in America. A D.C.-based public relations professional, Eric was the communications director for Rep. Betty Sutton (D-Ohio), a reporter for State Tax Notes and worked on the 2008 and 2004 coordinated presidential campaigns.

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Wells Fargo Warns It May Be Fined By Regulators

February 25, 2011

Wells Fargo & Co.’s lending and foreclosure practices probably will draw an enforcement action that may include a fine, the bank said today in a regulatory filing. “It is likely that one or more of the government agencies will initiate some type of enforcement action against Wells Fargo, which may include civil money penalties,” the San Francisco-based lender said in its annual report. “Wells Fargo continues to provide information requested by the various agencies.”

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25 Guys To Avoid On Wall Street

February 25, 2011

There are lots of critical skills you need to succeed on Wall Street. It helps to understand market forces. A facility with numbers is useful. Having a feel for group dynamics is necessary to succeed on trading desks and deal teams. Superb time management, verbal acuity, and judgment are all important.

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