March 13, 2010
By Craig Trudell March 13 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, pushing the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a 17-month high, as Citigroup Inc. led a rally among banks and data boosted confidence that the economic recovery is sustainable. Citigroup rallied 13 percent on speculation the U.S. government may sell its stake and after Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit said the bank will be consistently profitable. American International Group Inc., the bailed-out insurer, surged 22 percent after selling a division to MetLife Inc. for $15.5 billion. Home Depot Inc. and McDonald’s Corp. each rose at least 2.8 percent after U.S. retail sales unexpectedly increased in February. The S&P 500 climbed 1 percent to 1,149.99 this week. It closed at 1,150.24 on March 11, the highest level since October 2008, and has now surged 70 percent since its bear-market low on March 9, 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 58.49 points, or 0.6 percent, to 10,624.69. “The market forecast an apocalyptic, utopian scenario one year ago, and that proved to be inaccurate,” said Stephen Wood , who helps manage $176 billion as chief market strategist for Russell Investments. “A big percentage of what we’ve seen over the last year is the market correcting this incorrect forecast. We were wrong, and we need to get back to a more accurate pricing of the current environment.” Jobs, Takeovers The S&P 500 has risen 9 of the past 11 days after reports showed the labor market and consumer confidence are improving and takeovers bolstered optimism that the economy is gaining strength. The stock index had fallen 8.1 percent between Jan. 19 and Feb. 8 on concern Greece’s budget crisis would throttle the recovery. Stocks rose this week even after inflation in China accelerated more than economists estimated, spurring speculation that the government will boost interest rates to slow the world’s fastest-growing major economy. Central banks including the Federal Reserve have kept rates low to stimulate the economy out of the worst contraction since the Great Depression. The Fed has pledged to keep its target rate for overnight loans between banks low for an “extended period.” “The endpoint of the ‘extended period’ is certainly a lot closer than it was six months ago,” Russell’s Wood said. The Fed’s next rate decision is scheduled for March 16. The central bank won’t raise rates until November, according to forecasts by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Government Sale Citigroup advanced 13 percent to $3.97 and closed at $4.18 on March 11, the highest price since Nov. 24. Pandit said he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the government were considering a sale of its 27 percent stake. AIG soared 22 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $34.23 after the insurer sold American Life Insurance Co. to MetLife, the bailed-out company’s second divestiture of a non-U.S. life insurance unit this month. Retailers advanced after Americans braved blizzards and overcame job concerns to propel sales in February, pointing to a broadening in growth that will help sustain the expansion. Purchases at stores unexpectedly climbed 0.3 percent, the fourth gain in five months, Commerce Department figures showed. Home Depot, the world’s largest home-improvement retailer, rose 2.8 percent to $32.45. McDonald’s, the biggest fast-food chain, climbed 2.9 percent to $65.53. McDonald’s said global sales rose 4.8 percent in February, topping some analysts’ estimates. Forecasting Gains Barton Biggs , the hedge-fund manager who recommended buying U.S. stocks in March of last year when the S&P 500 sank to a 12- year low, said American equities may rise another 10 percent to 15 percent over the next couple of months. “I’m very struck by the level of bearishness everywhere I go,” said Biggs, who runs New York-based hedge fund Traxis Partners LP. “I’m not obsessed with history. I’m bullish because I think the global economic recovery is on track and is going to be surprisingly strong. The world was falling apart in 2009. There’s been a tremendous change.” Boeing Co. climbed 2.8 percent to $69.83. The second- largest commercial planemaker said it plans to ramp up production of its 787 Dreamliner to 2 1/2 a month by August as it works toward building 10 of the composite-plastic jets each month by 2013 and reclaiming the top delivery spot next year from Airbus SAS. Cisco Systems Inc. jumped 2.7 percent to $25.88. The biggest maker of networking gear introduced an Internet router starting at $90,000 that will let Web users download movies, songs and data faster to computers and mobile devices. Sprint Nextel Co. led telephone companies to the biggest gain among 10 industries in the S&P 500. The third-largest U.S. wireless company said it will pay off debt and control expenses . To contact the reporter on this story: Craig Trudell at ctrudell1@bloomberg.net .
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March 12, 2010
By Rita Nazareth March 12 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks drifted between gains and losses a day after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed at a 17-month high as a drop in consumer confidence overshadowed an unexpected increase in retail sales Declines in Walt Disney Co. and Boeing Co. dragged on the Dow Jones Industrial Average as the decrease in the Reuters/ University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index signaled continuing concern over the job market. Pfizer Inc. slid 1 percent after its drug failed to halt the progression of advanced breast tumors. Supervalu Inc. surged 5.7 percent on takeover speculation. “It looks like confidence is beginning to wane,” said Michael Mullaney , who manages $9 billion at Fiduciary Trust Co. in Boston. “Confidence is going to suffer until we get real improvement on the jobs front. In addition, the stock market is a little bit extended right now. It wouldn’t surprise me if we get a minor pullback from here.” The S&P 500 rose less than 0.1 percent to 1,150.51 at 2:13 p.m. in New York. The Dow rose 8.92 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 10,620.76. Both gauges retreated at least 0.2 percent earlier. U.S. stocks rose for a third day yesterday, sending the S&P 500 Index to the highest level since October 2008, as Citigroup Inc. led a rally in bank shares. The S&P 500 closed at a 15-month high of 1,150.23 on Jan. 19, and then plunged 8.1 percent through Feb. 8 on concern that European nations including Greece will fail to pay back debt and speculation that the Fed will need to rein in emergency stimulus measures as the economy improves. The index has since erased that loss to extend its rebound since March 9, 2009, to 70 percent through yesterday. ‘Half Full’ “The glass may be half full, but people are not quite certain they can hold on to the glass,” said Jason Pride , director of investment strategy at Glenmede Investment and Wealth Management in Philadelphia, which manages $18 billion. “ The market is jittery. Every little piece of news will make people nervous or happy. On top of that, the excess debt situation throughout the developed markets is a big headwind. That will keep economic growth at a subpar level.” Health-care stocks had the second-biggest decline among 10 groups in the S&P 500, dropping 0.4 percent collectively. Pfizer retreated 1 percent to $17.11. The world’s largest drugmaker said the cancer drug Sutent failed to halt the progression of advanced breast tumors in two studies. The company also stopped a trial of an experimental medicine to treat lung malignancy. Abbott, Citigroup Abbott Laboratories fell 2.5 percent to $54.15. The maker of the arthritis medicine Humira was cut to “sell” from “hold” at Citigroup Inc., which said the company may face “underlying profitability trouble” this year. Citigroup Inc. fell for the first time in nine days after Oppenheimer & Co. said the stock is fairly valued and under a “cloud” as long as the U.S. government remains a major shareholder. Citigroup dropped 3.7 percent to $4.03, after yesterday rising to the highest since November. Still, financial shares in the S&P 500 advanced for an 11th straight day, the group’s longest winning streak since at least 1989. United Technologies Corp. slipped 0.8 percent to $71.44. The maker of Pratt & Whitney jet engines said it expects 2010 earnings per share of $4.40 to $4.65. The average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was $4.64 a share. Schwab, Pall Charles Schwab Corp. sank 2.4 percent to $18.65. after saying it expects first-quarter earnings to be as much as 4 cents a share lower than its fourth-quarter results. Fourth- quarter net income was 14 cents. The average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was for a first-quarter profit of 15 cents a share. Pall Corp. slumped 4.8 percent to $38.88. The producer of filters for drugmakers and refineries forecast 2010 earnings excluding some items of $2.05 a share at most. On average, the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimated profit of $2.07. CF Industries Holdings Inc. lost 3.6 percent to $96.97 after Agrium Inc. said it will let its $5.43 billion offer for the fertilizer producer expire and won’t try to elect nominees to CF’s board. Separately, Yara International ASA declined to raise its $4.1 billion offer for Terra Industries Inc. , leaving the way open for rival suitor CF Industries. Terra said March 10 it favored a $4.71 billion offer from CF Industries and planned to terminate an earlier agreement with Yara unless the Norwegian company counterbid. Terra’s shares fell 1.3 percent to $46.28. Small Caps Bets against smaller U.S. stocks have reached the highest level in seven months as traders speculate the group’s record valuation will lead to declines. Investors boosted bearish bets in 2010 even as the shares rallied on signs the U.S. economy is strengthening. More than 8 percent of shares among companies in the Russell 2000 Index have been sold short, the highest level in at least a year. Benchmark indexes advanced at the start of trading after the Commerce Department said purchases at U.S. retailers increased 0.3 percent last month, compared with a 0.2 percent drop forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. ‘Grinding Slog’ “While I don’t have any reason to think the 2010 equity market will be as strong as 2009 was, you can probably have a reasonably close to average year,” said Stephen Wood , who helps manage $176 billion as chief market strategist for Russell Investments in New York. “There’s going to be a measureable, discernable upward bias. It’s going to be a grinding slog, but the equity market will be up higher a year from now than it is today.” A gauge of S&P 500 retailers advanced 1.6 percent. Sears Holdings Corp. and Macy’s Inc , the largest U.S. department-store companies, gained at least 1.4 percent. Monsanto Co. rose 1.2 percent to $72.46. The company, facing antitrust probes into its genetically modified seeds, may benefit from previous court rulings in which intellectual property rights trumped competition concerns, according to antitrust lawyers. Supervalu Inc. surged 5.7 percent to $16.99 on speculation the second-largest grocery chain will be acquired. RF Micro Devices Inc. advanced 4 percent to $4.92. The maker of semiconductor products rose after it was picked by CNBC’s “Mad Money” television show host Jim Cramer on potential growth and market-share gains. To contact the reporter on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net .
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