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Japanese Stocks Fluctuate Ahead of Interest Rate Decisions; Honda Declines

by on March 15, 2010

By Akiko Ikeda March 16 (Bloomberg) — Japan’s stocks fluctuated ahead of interest-rate decisions by the Bank of Japan and U.S. Federal Reserve. Honda Motor Corp. fell after the yen strengthened. Honda, which derives almost 85 percent of its sales abroad, declined 0.8 percent. Mitsubishi Corp., Japan’s biggest commodities trader, dropped after oil and metal prices fell. NEC Electronics Corp. jumped 7.8 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lifted its rating on the electronic parts maker to “buy.” The Bank of Japan will hold a two-day policy meeting from today, while the Fed is expected to announce its interest-rate decision later today. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid 0.1 percent to 10,742.71 as of 10:12 a.m. in Tokyo. The broader Topix index gained 0.1 percent to 940.16. “People are expecting shares to fall after decisions at FOMC and BOJ meetings,” said Fumiyuki Nakanishi , a strategist at Tokyo-based SMBC Friend Securities Co. “There’s no fundamental reasons to buy stocks.” In New York, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 0.1 percent to 1,150.51 after sliding as much as 0.7 percent. Consumer companies gained on an analyst upgrade of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and on PepsiCo Inc.’s plan to return more money to investors. Stocks earlier declined on concern China will take steps to restrain economic growth to combat inflation. The Topix has gained 3.4 percent in 2010, compared with a 3.2 percent advance for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in the U.S. and a 1.1 percent increase for the Stoxx 600 Index in Europe. Stocks in the Topix are valued at 32 times estimated earnings on average, compared with 14.8 times for the S&P 500 and 12.9 times for the Stoxx 600. Honda dropped 0.8 percent to 3,270 yen. Canon Inc., the world’s largest maker of cameras, fell 0.7 percent to 4,135 yen. Pioneer Corp., an electronic company that earns 67 percent of its sales abroad, sank 1.6 percent to 316 yen. The yen appreciated to 90.26 against the dollar, compared with 90.60 at the close of stock trading in Tokyo yesterday. Against the euro, Japan’s currency strengthened to 123.42 from 124.47. The stronger yen reduces income when overseas revenue is converted into local currency. Mitsubishi Corp. lost 0.7 percent to 2,322 yen. Mitsui & Co., Japan’s No. 2 trading house by market value, dropped 1.3 percent to 1,518 yen. Inpex Corp., Japan’s largest oil explorer, fell 0.8 percent to 645,000 yen. The London Metals Index, a measure of six metals including copper and zinc, fell 1.8 percent yesterday. Crude oil for April delivery lost 1.8 percent to $79.80 a barrel in New York. Casio Computer Co., a maker of digital cameras and watches, slumped 1.7 percent to 709 yen. The company said it will pay an annual dividend of 15 yen, lower than the previous year’s payout of 23 yen. NEC Electronics surged 7.8 percent to 952 yen, set for the highest close since Sept. 3. The stock had its rating raised to “buy” from “neutral” at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. To contact the reporter for this story: Akiko Ikeda in Tokyo at iakiko@bloomberg.net .

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Household Wealth in U.S. Increases at a Slower Pace as Home Values Decline

by on March 11, 2010

By Timothy R. Homan March 11 (Bloomberg) — Household wealth in the U.S. grew in the fourth quarter at a slower pace, limited by a drop in home values that indicates the recovery in consumer spending will take time to gain speed. Net worth for households and non-profit groups rose by $700 billion to $54.2 trillion, marking a third consecutive gain, according to the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds report issued today in Washington. Wealth increased by $2.78 trillion in the third quarter. American consumers cut borrowing at a record pace last year, the figures showed, in a bid to repair the damage from overextended balance sheets and the loss of wealth during the recession. The need to replenish savings combined with the loss of 8.4 million jobs means spending, the biggest part of the economy, will be restrained. “We’re probably feeling a little bit of a hangover from the decline in real-estate markets,” Guy LeBas , chief fixed- income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia, said before the report. “It’s hard to justify higher spending if you don’t have income coming in the door.” The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 5.5 percent in the last three months of 2009, compared with a 15 percent gain the previous quarter. Household real-estate holdings fell in value by $109.8 billion in the last three months of 2009, the first decrease in three quarters, according to the Fed’s report. Stocks Fall The S&P 500 decreased 0.3 percent to 1,142.52 at 12:18 p.m. in New York, depressed by concern that faster inflation in China will lead to higher interest rates that will slow the global recovery. Since the recession began in December 2007, Americans have been constrained by periods of falling home and stock prices, tight credit and rising unemployment. While stocks have gained and home prices began stabilizing last year, borrowing standards have tightened and unemployment remains near a 26- year high. The jobless rate , which has not increased since October, held at 9.7 percent last month, according to a March 5 report from the Labor Department. The rate reached 10.1 percent in October, the highest level since 1982. Owners’ equity as a share of their total real-estate holdings increased to 38.1 percent last quarter from 37.6 percent in the third quarter, today’s Fed report showed. Less Borrowing Consumer debt dropped at a 1.2 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, a seventh consecutive decline. For all of 2009, borrowing decreased 1.7 percent, the first decline since records began in 1952. Mortgage borrowing declined at a 0.8 percent pace from October through December, while other forms of consumer credit fell at a 5.8 percent rate, the Fed’s report showed. Total borrowing by consumers, businesses and government agencies increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent last quarter, led by a 13 percent advance by the federal government. Borrowing by businesses decreased at a 3.2 percent rate. Borrowing by the federal government reflected, in part, spending linked to President Barack Obama ’s stimulus plan. State and local government borrowing climbed at a 4.7 percent pace. The economy grew at a 5.9 percent rate in the last three months of 2009, the fastest pace in six years. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News this month forecast the expansion will slow to a 2.8 percent pace in the first quarter of 2010. To contact the report on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net

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Unilever Sales Growth Slows as Competition Forces Faster Price Reductions

February 4, 2010

By Jeroen Molenaar Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) — Unilever , the world’s second-largest consumer-products company, reported slower sales growth as the maker of Knorr soups cut prices more than analysts anticipated in the fourth quarter amid heightened competition. Revenue, excluding acquisitions and currency swings, rose 1.8 percent in the final three months of the year, slowing from the 3.4 percent increase in the previous quarter, the London- and Rotterdam-based company said. Analysts had estimated sales growth of 1 percent. Net income dropped to 831 million euros ($1.15 billion), beating the 650 million-euro average estimate. Unilever cut prices by an average of 3.1 percent in the quarter and increased marketing spending as Chief Executive Officer Paul Polman tried to stoke sales growth that lagged behind competitors Procter & Gamble Co. and Nestle SA for years. Increased competition prevented the maker of Dove soap from raising prices in the period, Unilever’s head of investor relations said today on a conference call. The “volume growth recovery is expensive and requires high investments as in price as in promotions,” said Pierre Tegner, an analyst at Oddo Securities in a note today. He recommends investors “reduce” Unilever stock. Unilever fell as much as 70 cents, or 3.1 percent, to 21.80 euros in Amsterdam and traded at 22.12 euros as of 9:25 a.m. The shares are down 2.7 percent this year. The company expects “continued pressure on consumer spending power and heightened levels of competitive activity in 2010,” Polman said in the statement, adding that he plans to continue to focus on volume growth. Selling volumes rose 5 percent, Unilever said. Selling Volumes Polman has also accelerated new-product introductions to lure cash-strapped shoppers in countries from Germany to India. The increase in Unilever’s selling volumes was the third straight quarterly gain after two quarters of declines. Analysts had expected a 3.2 percent volume increase in the quarter and an average price reduction of 1.9 percent, according to the Bloomberg News survey of 12 analysts. P&G posted a 5 percent gain in so-called organic sales in the fourth quarter, after cutting prices of 10 percent of its products. P&G also boosted its revenue forecast by a percentage point, to growth of 3 percent to 5 percent for this year. Net sales fell 5 percent to 9.7 billion euros, Unilever reported today. To contact the reporter on this story: Jeroen Molenaar in Amsterdam jmolenaar1@bloomberg.net .

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Malpass Says U.S. Economy Will Enter `Gloomy Period’ After Initial Rebound

October 29, 2009

By Vincent Del Giudice and Thomas R. Keene Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) — Economic growth in the U.S. will slow after the rebound in the third quarter and enter “a very gloomy period” of high unemployment, said economist David Malpass , president of Encima Global in New York. “We are moving into this very gloomy new normal” of 2 percent growth and a “very high unemployment rate,” Malpass said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. As a result, “Washington will reach around and thrust around desperately” for new programs to boost growth. Gross domestic product expanded at a 3.5 percent pace from July through September after contracting during the previous four quarters, Commerce Department reported today. In the fourth quarter, “you’re not going to have the consumption bump” fueled by the cash-for-clunkers auto-rebate program and other government stimulus efforts, Malpass said. “We’re getting a very weak recovery off the bottom,” he said. “I would call it a medium quality growth report,” said Malpass, formerly chief economist at the defunct investment firm Bear Stearns & Co. “It’s pent up demand.” A separate report today from the Labor Department showed 530,000 workers filed claims for jobless benefits last week, more than anticipated and signaling the job market is slow to heal even as growth picks up. The economy was forecast to grow at a 3.2 percent annual pace, according to the median estimate of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from gains of 2 percent to 4.8 percent. In September, the national unemployment rate reached 9.8 percent, the highest since 1983, and the economy lost 263,000 jobs, bringing the total number of jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007 to more than 7 million. (In the U.S., hear Bloomberg Radio on satellite radio: Sirius Channel 130 and XM Channel 129. In New York City, tune to WBBR 1130 on the AM dial.) To contact the reporters on this story: Vincent Del Giudice in Washington vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net ; Thomas R. Keene in New York tkeene@bloomberg.net .

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U.S. Stock-Index Futures Advance Before GDP Report, Exxon, P&G Earnings

October 29, 2009

By Sarah Jones Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stock-index futures rose, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may rebound from the steepest retreat in four weeks, before a report that may show the world’s largest economy grew in the third quarter. Exxon Mobil Corp., the biggest energy company, Procter & Gamble Co. and Colgate-Palmolive Co. are among 50 companies in the S&P 500 scheduled to report earnings today. Futures on the S&P 500 index expiring in December climbed 0.5 percent to 1,043.60 at 9:13 a.m. in London. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 0.4 percent to 9,749. Nasdaq- 100 Index futures gained 0.3 percent to 1,685.0. U.S. stocks extended a global slump yesterday, as an unexpected decline in new-home sales added to concern that an almost eight-month rally has outpaced the prospects for earnings and economic growth. The S&P 500 has surged 54 percent from a 12-year low on March 9, on growing confidence a U.S. economic recovery will drive profit growth. It has slipped 5 percent from this year’s high on Oct. 19 on speculation the rally outpaced the prospects for earnings. A Commerce Department report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington may show the U.S. economy grew in the third quarter for the first time in more than a year, driven by gains in consumer and government spending. The world’s largest economy expanded at a 3.2 percent annual pace from July through September after shrinking in the previous four quarters, according to the median estimate of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Akamai Gains Exxon, Procter & Gamble, the maker of Pampers diapers and Pantene shampoo, and Colgate-Palmolive, the world’s largest maker of toothpaste, may move. The companies are scheduled to report earnings before the open of U.S. markets. Akamai Technologies Inc. rose 9.2 percent to $22.01 in Germany. The provider of software that makes Web sites load faster said it expects sales of at least $217 million in the fourth quarter. That exceeded the average estimate of $212.1 million from analysts in a Bloomberg survey. First Solar Inc. sank 15 percent to $128.14 in Germany. The world’s largest maker of thin-film solar power modules reported sales of $480.9 million in the third quarter, trailing the average analyst estimate by 9.3 percent. Earnings-per-share have topped estimates at 86 percent of the companies in the S&P 500 that posted third-quarter results so far, which would be a record proportion for a full quarter according to Bloomberg data going back to 1993. Still, profits have decreased 18 percent on average for the 257 companies that reported since Oct. 7. Sales have slumped 5.7 percent and surpassed estimates at 64 percent of the companies. Hunkering Down The rally in global stocks has failed to convince investors and analysts that it’s time to take on more risk or dispel their concerns about U.S. economic policies and its banking system. Only 31 percent of respondents to a poll of investors and analysts who are Bloomberg subscribers in the U.S., Europe and Asia see investment opportunities, down from 35 percent in the previous survey in July. Almost 40 percent in the latest quarterly survey, the Bloomberg Global Poll, say they are still hunkering down. U.S. investors are even more cautious, with more than 50 percent saying they are in a defensive crouch. To contact the reporters on this story: Sarah Jones in London at sjones35@bloomberg.net .

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U.S. Durable-Goods Orders Rise Fourth Time in Six Months in Recovery Sign

October 28, 2009

By Shobhana Chandra Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) — Orders for U.S. durable goods rose in September for the fourth time in the past six months, a sign factories are helping ring in an economic recovery. The 1 percent increase in bookings for goods meant to last several years matched the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and followed a 2.6 percent drop the prior month, Commerce Department data showed today in Washington. Excluding transportation equipment, orders climbed 0.9 percent, exceeding the survey median. Gains in manufacturing are one reason why economists project a report tomorrow will show the economy expanded last quarter at the fastest pace in two years. Caterpillar Inc. and Eaton Corp. are among companies saying sales will improve in coming months as more than $2 trillion in global government stimulus boosts demand from China to Europe. “The economy is on the mend,” Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors Inc. in Holland, Pennsylvania, said before the report. “Manufacturing activity is picking up.” The median estimate of economists surveyed was based on 77 forecasts that ranged from a decline of 1 percent to a gain of 4.8 percent. Stock-index futures held earlier losses following the report. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 0.4 percent to 1,056.7 at 8:36 a.m. in New York. Treasury securities were little changed. Exceeded Median Excluding transportation equipment, orders were forecast to rise 0.7 percent, according to the survey median. The government revised August data to show a 0.4 percent decline compared with an initially reported 0.3 percent drop. Bookings for transportation equipment increased 1.1 percent, led by demand for military aircraft. Orders for commercial planes and for automobiles declined. Orders excluding defense equipment increased 0.5 percent, the fifth gain in the past six months, and bookings for military gear climbed 10 percent. Shipments for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, used in calculating gross domestic product, fell 0.2 percent in September. For the quarter, such shipments dropped at a 1.9 percent annual pace compared with a 14 percent plunge in the prior three months, indicating business investment stabilized. The report showed investment will probably improve going into 2010. Bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding planes, a proxy for future business spending, increased 2 percent in September and were up 11 percent at an annual pace for the quarter. Economy Expanded A report from the Commerce Department tomorrow may show the economy grew at a 3.2 percent annual pace last quarter, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed. It would be the first positive reading in more than a year and the strongest performance since the third quarter of 2007. Companies seeing a turnaround include Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of bulldozers and excavators, which issued a full-year profit forecast exceeding the highest prediction from analysts. Peoria, Illinois-based Caterpillar is considered a bellwether for its ties to construction and mining and its overseas presence. “We are seeing encouraging signs that indicate a recovery may be under way,” Chief Executive Officer Jim Owens said in a statement on Oct. 20. “We’ve already started planning for an upturn.” A day earlier, Eaton, which makes circuit breakers and fuel pumps, reported third-quarter profit that topped analysts’ estimates and said earnings this year will be higher than previously forecast. Electrical markets in Europe and Asia are starting to recover, the Cleveland-based company said. “We believe we are seeing the European electric market start to stabilize,” Chief Executive Officer Sandy Cutler said on an Oct. 19 conference call. He still predicts the U.S. stimulus bill will add about $500 million in “incremental revenue” to Eaton in 2010. To contact the report on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net

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Homebuilder Confidence in U.S. Unexpectedly Drops as Credits Set to Expire

October 19, 2009

By Shobhana Chandra Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) — Confidence among U.S. homebuilders unexpectedly fell in October on mounting concern sales will retrench once government credits expire. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index declined to 18 from a reading of 19 in September that was the highest in more than a year, the Washington-based association said today. Figures less than 50 mean most respondents view conditions as poor. Builders are fretting as time runs out for purchasers to take advantage of the Obama administration’s $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers, which expires at the end of November. All three components of the index, including measures of current and future sales and buyer traffic, dropped, signaling the market may take a step back after advancing for five consecutive months. “Clearly, builders are experiencing the effects of the expiring tax credit on their sales activity, since it would be virtually impossible at this point to complete a new home sale in time to take advantage of that buyer incentive,” David Crowe , the NAHB’s chief economist, said in a statement. Crowe said 85 percent of the members polled thought an extension of the credit would boost sales. The builder confidence index was forecast to rise to 20 this month, according to the median of 44 estimates of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Projections ranged from 18 to 21. The gauge, which was first published in January 1985, averaged 16 last year. Survey Components Builder shares fell for a third consecutive day. The Standard & Poor’s builder supercomposite index was down 0.8 percent to 267.09 at 1:38 p.m. in New York. The broader market rallied, sending the S&P 500 Index up 1.1 percent to 1,099.77 on better-than-anticipated earnings. “I would regard today’s numbers as a temporary blip,” said Michelle Meyer , an economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. “Once we smooth through that volatility, home sales will continue to improve. The tax credit isn’t the only thing that’s helping sales.” The drop in prices, which has made buying more affordable, and a general improvement in the economy are among the factors that will contribute to a rebound, she said. The builder survey asks builders to characterize current sales as “good,” “fair” or “poor” and to gauge prospective buyers’ traffic. The survey also asks participants to gauge the outlook for the next six months. Broad Decline All three measures dropped for the first time since November. The builders group’s index of current single-family home sales fell to 17 this month from 18 in September. The gauge of buyer traffic dropped to 14 from 17, and a measure of sales expectations for the next six months decreased to 27 from 29. Confidence decreased in three of four regions, led by a four-point slump in the West. The Northeast was the only region to register a gain. The Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Home Builders and the National Association of Realtors today sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner , White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan requesting an extension of the credit for at least a year after it expires on Nov. 30. The three groups urged Congress to expand the initiative to include all, not just first-time, buyers of primary residences, increase the amount of the credit and make the funds available for closing. The Realtors’ association estimated the program generated about 355,000 more home sales than would have been the case. Sales Gains Sales of new homes dropped to a four-decade-low 329,000 annual pace in January. Purchases climbed in six of the next seven months, reaching a 429,000 pace in August. Commerce Department figures on September sales are due next week. If Congress extends the credit and credit begins to flow again “we can turn this thing around by the middle of next year,” NAHB President Jerry Howard , said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. If lawmakers don’t act quickly, “then the housing industry is in jeopardy. The group projects an extension for another year will create 350,000 jobs, generate $28.2 billion in wages and business income and $11.6 billion in additional tax revenue. Preparing for Rebound D.R. Horton Inc., the largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, is among companies projecting the recent improvement will be sustained. The Fort Worth, Texas-based company said last month it is buying finished lots, rather than building on undeveloped land it already owns, to boost its construction pipeline in anticipation of a housing revival. “There have been some small encouraging signs in our sales and our average sales prices,” Bill W. Wheat, D.R. Horton’s chief financial officer, said on a Sept. 30 call with investors. Stabilization in residential construction is among the reasons economists project the U.S. began to grow again last quarter. The world’s largest economy probably expanded at a 3.2 percent annual pace from July through September, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed earlier this month. To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington schandra1@bloomberg.net .

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U.S. August Business Inventories Fall 1.5%, Most This Year, as Sales Climb

October 14, 2009

By Courtney Schlisserman Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) — Inventories at U.S. businesses fell more than forecast in August as sales climbed, helping put firms in a position to increase orders in coming months. The 1.5 percent decrease in stockpiles , the biggest so far this year, brought the value of goods on hand down to $1.31 trillion, the fewest since December 2005, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. A plunge at auto dealers led the decrease as the “cars-for-clunkers” plan revived sales. Companies probably will pickup production and spending after drawing down stockpiles at a record pace in the first half of the year. That may give the U.S. economy, the world’s largest, a boost in coming quarters as it tries to emerge from the worst recession in seven decades. “Firms are still managing inventories cautiously,” Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York, said before the report. Economists forecast inventories would decline at a 1 percent rate, according to the median of 49 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from declines of 0.5 percent to 1.3 percent. Sales at U.S. retailers last month fell less than anticipated, a sign households will play a greater role in the emerging economic recovery, another report from the Commerce Department showed today. The 1.5 percent decrease in purchases followed a 2.2 percent gain the prior month. Sales excluding automobiles climbed 0.5 percent, more than the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Sales Improve The inventory report showed total business sales climbed 1 percent in August after a 0.3 percent gain the prior month. It would take 1.33 months to deplete stockpiles at the current sales pace, the fewest since September 2008. Retailers’ inventories, the only part of today’ report not previously released, dropped 2.3 percent, the most since October 2001, after a 1 percent decrease the prior month. Retail sales, excluding food, rose 2.4 percent. Retail inventories account for a third of all business stockpiles. Factory inventories fell 0.8 percent and wholesale stockpiles dropped 1.3 percent. Total business inventories shrank at a record $160.2 billion annual pace in the second quarter after a $113.9 billion rate the first three months of the year. Auto Stockpiles Today’s report showed auto inventories slumped 7.9 percent, also the most since October 2001, as sales increased 7.8 percent. That pushed the industry’s inventory-to-sales ratio for August down to 1.73 months, down from 2.03 months in July. Even with the expiration of the government’s “cash-for- clunkers auto trade-in program, total consumer spending may rise the rest of this year, though at a slower rate, according to economists surveyed this month by Bloomberg. The government is scheduled to release its first estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product on Oct. 29. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News earlier this month estimated the economy expanded at a 3.2 percent pace from July through September and will slow to a 2.4 percent rate this quarter. Zappos.com Inc. is boosting inventory of its best-selling brands as it expects consumer spending to pick up in the year- end holiday season. “We think the customer is going to come back and we want to be there to service them,” Fred Mossler, who oversees merchandising at Zappos.com, said in an interview on Sept. 28. “We’re making some bets about some of our best products and brands.” Concern Over Jobs Some consumer companies are less optimistic. Levi Strauss & Co., the closely held maker of blue jeans and Dockers pants, said Oct. 8 that rising unemployment in the global recession cut third-quarter profit and may crimp holiday sales. “While there’s a general feeling that we’re in a better market today than we were six or nine months ago, there’s still just a huge overhang from unemployment,” Chief Financial Officer Blake Jorgensen, 49, said in an interview. “It’s going to be a slow recovery in 2010.” Chief Executive Officer John Anderson told analysts that because retailers are carrying “leaner” inventories it’s hurting demand at manufacturers. To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington cschlisserma@bloomberg.net

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