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Canadian Mining More Corrupt Than Parts Of Developing World: Survey

by The Huffington Post Canada on February 24, 2012

Huffington Post…

Corruption in Canada’s mining industry is worse than in some African and Latin American countries, says a new survey from the Fraser Institute. Alberta, British Columbia, Quebec, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories all ranked in the survey as more corrupt than Chile and Botswana . The remaining provinces and territories ranked better than any developing country, but were still seen as more corrupt than many U.S. and Australian jurisdictions. The study notes that Chile and Botswana have the fastest-growing resource sectors on their respective continents, suggesting a link between economic growth and lack of corruption. The Northwest Territories ranked as the most corrupt in Canada, with fully 16 per cent of respondents saying corruption would keep them from investing in the area. Sweden, Norway and Finland, as well as the U.S. states of Minnesota and Missouri, were ranked as the least corrupt in the survey that looked at 93 countries and sub-national areas and surveyed 802 mining companies worldwide. Most of the developing world, and some developed countries such as Poland and Spain, ranked worse than any Canadian province. It’s a surprising result that suggests some Canadian jurisdictions may have a way to go in ensuring confidence in their mining sectors, and it indicates that controversies surrounding Canadian mining companies may go beyond concerns about their operations abroad. “ It’s clearly a concern, though a concern amongst a minority of miners ,” survey co-ordinator Fred McMahon told the Globe and Mail. “I doubt there’s big money passing hands, but it might be a favour here or a favour there. … It’s something that plagues mining companies around the world.” The report does not cite examples of corruption in Canadian mining. But concerns have traditionally centred around Canadian companies’ activities abroad. Mining firms have often been criticized for their links to resource-fuelled wars in Africa . Bribery is seen as being among the most common problems. Last year, Calgary-based Niko Resources agreed to pay a $9.5-million fine after admitting it bribed a Bangladeshi government minister . Under Canada’s Corruption of Foreign Public Officials Act , it is illegal for Canadian companies to bribe officials anywhere in the world. In another case, the RCMP raided the offices of Calgary-based Blackfire Exploration last year as part of an investigation into allegations the company bribed Mexican officials to suppress dissent against an open pit mine in Chiapas. In 2009, three men linked to Blackfire were arrested for the murder of an anti-mining activist . “ This tragic outcome can be traced directly to the Harper government’s refusal to end the impunity currently enjoyed by Canadian mining companies ,” Council of Canadians chair Maude Barlow said at the time. But in a 2009 report on corruption in mining , Ernst & Young reported that heavy regulation may also be to blame. Mining is among the most heavily regulated industries in the world, and “as a result, officials who have the power to block, delay or frustrate a project may attempt to solicit bribes for the benign exercise of that power.” The report also suggests that corruption may not be worth it, financially. “The impact of such activities can seriously degrade a company’s share price and potentially trigger costly shareholder or other litigation,” the report stated. “Furthermore, the time spent by management in attending to investigations, press inquiries or regulatory processes can distract management from the business of developing or operating a mineral property, or exploring for new properties.” Canada’s mining sector was worth $54 billion to Canada’s economy in 2010, amounting to 4.4 per cent of GDP .

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Canadian Mining More Corrupt Than Parts Of Developing World: Survey

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Huffington Post…

A lot has happened in the last 56 years… mankind landed on the moon, the Cold War ended and General Motors managed to build 100 million small-block V8 engines. First launched in 1955 with 265 cubic inches of displacement, the small block V8 has seen duty in nearly every memorable machine produced by Chevrolet in the last five decades. In addition to being the bread-and-butter engine in GM’s bread-and-butter brand, the small block has also been widely seen in the engine bays of various Pontiac, Oldsmobile, Buick, GMC and Cadillac models in the States, as well as in Vauxhalls in the UK, Opels in the rest of Europe and Holdens in Australia.

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GM Builds 100-millionth Small-block Engine

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Are Windows Tablets Coming Too Late?

November 29, 2011

The research group Forrester has a new study out in which it shows a shrinking appetite for Windows 8 tablets, the yet-to-be-released devices running the touch-friendly new Windows that is set for a 2012 launch . In a blog post , JP Gownder of Forrester says that Windows 8 tablets are going to be “very late to the party”; he blames a slow-moving Microsoft for the dip in consumer interest. Gownder reports that, while 46 percent of U.S. consumers expressed an interest in an upcoming Windows 8 tablet back in quarter one of 2011, that number fell to 21 percent in quarter three of 2011. From his blog post , titled “Microsoft’s Shrinking Window For Tablets: Its Fifth-Mover Product Strategy Is Late”: Product strategists often look to be “fast followers” in their product markets. Perhaps the most famous example is the original browser war of the 1990s: Microsoft’s fast-following Internet Explorer drove incumbent Netscape out of the market altogether. Question: What matters more — being a “fast follower,” or being a good follower? The steady decline of Internet Explorer , from about 91 percent in 2004 to 54 percent in 2011 , as “slower” followers like Firefox and Google Chrome rose, would suggest that being a fast follower is not really important over time, at least in the browser space. Also, Internet Explorer came bundled with Windows PCs ( later deemed to be an illegal monopolistic advantage ), so that doesn’t really seem like valid proof of the “fast-follower” thesis. Gownder also writes, For tablets, though, Windows really isn’t a fast follower. Rather it’s (at best) a fifth-mover after iPad, Android tablets like the Samsung Galaxy Tab, HP’s now-defunct webOS tablet, and the BlackBerry PlayBook tablet. While Windows’ product strategists can learn from these products, other players have come a long way in executing and refining their products — Apple, Samsung, and others have already launched second-generation products and will likely be into their third generation by the time Windows 8 launches. Gownder lists the iPad, and then three kinds of tablets that have gotten trounced by the iPad, as initial movers in the tablet space, products that “beat” Windows 8 tablets. Well, the HP Touchpad was discontinued by HP in recent months (so much for the virtues of being a third-follower), and the BlackBerry PlayBook has long been rumored to be nearly-dead . Android tablets (second-followers) that are not the Kindle Fire and Nook Tablet are also failing in the marketplace . Would Microsoft really want to be in the position of any of the non-iPad tablets that Gownder lists as having a “mover” advantage over them? Meanwhile, newer competitors like Amazon (Kindle Fire) and Barnes & Noble (Nook Tablet) are reshaping consumer expectations in the market, driving down price points (and concomitant price expectations), and redefining what a tablet is. Here is the real wisdom of the Forrester analysis: Any drop in consumer desire for a Windows 8 tablet has less to do with its perceived “lateness” and more to do with a shifting marketplace that may even affect demand for the mighty $500 iPad . This was the primary finding of a survey conducted by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) in October — consumers decide on tablets based on a set of preferences, with tablet ease-of-use, available applications and price points informing their buying decisions. Windows 8 tablets really appeal to consumers, the BCG report found , because the idea of a Windows interface on a tablet is appealing to those who are familiar with Microsoft products. It’s likely this still holds true. By releasing its Windows 8-powered tablets late, Microsoft will have to overcome three generations of iPads and two of the Kindle Fire (which, let’s remember, has probably sold many millions on its own “late-moving” first attempt). Breaking into the tablet market is not impossible if you’ve made a desired device, as Amazon has proven. To dismiss the Windows 8 tablet before anyone outside of a bunch of developers have seen one seems premature, no matter what the survey says. Let’s wait for a product, price and availability before we write off Windows 8 as Windows Too Late.

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Dennis Santiago: Are Advocates Against Responsible Banking Being Responsible?

November 15, 2011

The politics of California are a minefield of self interests. Very few laws get passed here that, when examined in detail, do not lead back to someone hoping to make a mint by creating a monopoly advantage for a product or patent to lock competitors out of the market under the guise of some made up cover story. In my lifetime I’ve sadly witnessed the greater purpose of government to promote the public good taking a back seat on the bus to these affairs of both special interest capitalism and its often equally diabolical twin, unionism. This cancer to frustrate and neuter government at all levels so that it is pliable to special interests is now accepted as “the way it is” by a body politic told more and more that ordinary people no longer matter. Here’s the thing. It doesn’t have to be this way. It was never supposed to be this way. When someone asks me what my politics are I tell them I’m a Californian. I’m that eclectic open minded person with a broad mix of social values that defy party and cultural boundaries with a reserved fiscal bent that does not mind spending on things we need to better our lives. The kind of person special interests loathe because we’re actually smart enough to see through their smoke screens into the darkness of their greed and fear. I run into many other fellow Californians of similar ideals with genuine interest in the betterment of our neighbors, our state and our nation. And it’s high time our voices called out to clean up the mess decades of divide and conquer have heaped upon our lives. Shortly after I wrote the HuffPost blog “Economic Recovery Means Learning to Export Unemployment” pondering ways we might get things started again, I was on a speaker panel on capital availability in Los Angeles where one public official responsible for managing credit enhancement guarantees for small businesses basically said “we are waiting for the problem to go away” or in other words, no one in the public or private sector is taking a risk on ordinary people. This struck me as particularly macabre because in my day job evaluating banks, I see so many of them sitting on piles of deposits that are not being lent. That’s how they are supposed to make money by the way. Borrow from depositors at one rate. Lend it with interest and make a living on the spread. For smaller businesses who’s “second source of payment” credit enhancement is often based on the owner’s real estate equity, it’s particularly tough because no one is sure what that back up capital is really worth over the next one or two business cycles. It’s tougher still when federal agencies aren’t able to provide needed credit enhancement to small business owners to help the banks qualify their backup capital to buffer the systemic shock of these real estate valuation uncertainties, uncertainties themselves created and perpetuated by government policies that are even now incubating swan eggs the color of who’s feathers we have no idea. Washington and Sacramento should both take note. If you want to see business investing come back in this country, this is one of the tangible puzzles to solve. The truth is when no one believes the U.S. economy is going anywhere, there’s no demand to borrow. So instead, the money circulates in investments; meaning, our money is propping up the façades of Wall Street, a beast whose appetite for cash to leverage is never ending. Bankers know full well this isn’t healthy. They whine about it to me all the time. Evidence of their angst can be found in the extreme competition to win what few lending deals are out there. Ask any commercial lender how many proposals they chase each week and how many bidders they have to outmaneuver to win one. But can you blame business owners for not wanting to take the risk? Would you build a company only to see it outsourced to the world funded by the investment banking money flow of your own community’s municipal debentures? And so I turn to pondering the inconsistencies of the lobbying arrayed against Richard Alarcon’s now long hampered quest to bring Responsible Banking to the City of Los Angeles. Born in response to the banking crisis, Alarcon’s initiative asks questions important to all communities in this country. Do the financial institutions, services and banks that do business in and with a city benefit the economic interests of that city? Is the wealth and treasure of the people of a region demonstrably reinvested in that region? Are the individual members of the financial apparatus partners or spectators about doing something to better conditions? Given that our tangible economy is at a standstill, we all know the answer is that we could be doing better. I believe the City of Los Angeles is very brave to ask these questions. And make no mistake about it every other municipality in the League of Cities is watching how the politics and lobbying goes here because they are also asking the same questions. These concerns are not just the Imagineering of La La Land. Opposing Councilman Alarcon’s quest are other L.A. City Council members who talk about the onerous costs of implementation. This is something I’ve always found odd about working with Los Angeles going all the way back to the days I worked with Rebuild L.A. People think they have to do everything in isolation building 100% of the infrastructure that no one else can use. It inflates the perception of the magnitude of the problem to Hollywood proportions, a bit parochial for a thought leader community when you think about it. The fact of the matter is that Los Angeles is now late to the party with its contribution to a comprehensive top to bottom re-make of the U.S. systemic risk management process. While L.A. dawdled, the system moved on. The United States is implementing Dodd-Frank Act and this agenda captures with it are many of the questions Los Angeles was at one time at the forefront of asking the banking and finance system. Opposing rhetoric I’ve heard purports that “the Responsible Banking Ordinance has not made much progress because it is a misguided effort. It asks banks seeking to do business with the City to hand over a massive amount of information, which the city would then use to “score” the banks. The bottom line is this would not help Angelenos, but it would burden the City with a new layer of bureaucracy that creates a mountain of paperwork, with little to no real effect.” The talking points that have been circulating for the last year or so go on to amplify the scare about onerous costs by saying that “Banks are already extremely heavily regulated and the information being requested is either already publicly available, or totally proprietary and won’t be handed over. The information requested would result in the city getting literally thousands of pages of data. What do we do with that info? The city does not have the personnel or expertise to process and organize a mountain of data. At the same time, the ordinance is vague, unclear and subjective, which undermines the stable, well-understood regulatory environment that is so critical for both the city and the banking industry, when they conduct business with each other.” That’s pretty strong stuff so I wondered which of the large over $50B banks and smaller under $50B banks doing business in the State of California one particular group, the Central City Association, actually speaks for. The list turns out to be a rather small one. According to the organization’s website the following banks are presently members. Banks Who are 2011 CCA Members per CCA’s website Operating Bank Assets as of 2Q2011 per FDIC Call Reports 1st Enterprise Bank $525M American Business Bank $1.1B Bank of America Corporation $1,684.3B Bank of the West $59.5B City National Bank $22.1B East West Bank $21.8B JPMorgan Chase & Company $1,932.7B Union Bank of California aka Union Bank National Association a member of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group, Inc. $79.6B US Bank a member of US Bancorp $316.7B Wells Fargo & Company $1,153B This is hardly a comprehensive list of the banks actively engaged in the financial infrastructure of California. Of these two banks, 1st Enterprise and American Business Bank are local players that would have no trouble passing the City’s criteria for a favored bank under the evaluation rules of the proposed ordinance. All of the other banks have assets greater than $10B which means they are all going to have to comply with emerging federal regulations mandated by the Dodd-Frank Act to perform scenario stress testing which should includes analysis of potential stresses stemming from asset and liability exposures to regional economic zones, you know like Los Angeles County. The last version of the Fed/OCC/FDIC guidance I read on this indicates they can expect to spend somewhere in the neighborhood of $250K per year per FDIC certificate operating unit if I counted my estimated work hours to comply right. And three of these banks are so large that they are further required to spend millions preparing and maintaining Large Complex Institution (LCI) Resolution Plans under Dodd-Frank. But the big joke is that when all is said and done, from the analytics I have on these banks, they’d all wind up advantaged in winning new City business under L.A.’s proposed rules. The bottom line is the bank’s computers are already going to be running these numbers whether or not Los Angeles or any municipality in this country asks for a subset of these reports to be forwarded to them for local analysis purposes. Being this late to the party is actually working in favor of the Councilman Alarcon’s locally focused version of Dodd-Frank transparency. It looks to me that ultimately what the City will discover if it ever gets around to passing the ordinance is that it can find a workable pathway to ask for those reports to be filtered and made consumable as executive summaries knowing the banks are on the hook to get those numbers right for the Feds lest they run afoul of the U.S. Banking Act. Funny thing about computers. Once you program them to do something, all you have to do to get them to do something similar is change the code a little. The cost of transparency is decreasing as time passes, well as long as L.A.’s penchant to try to re-invent everything in the most expensive possible way can be kept in line. And if enough cities in California ask for the same kinds of focused reports, it becomes something that even the more hobbled bureaucracy of Sacramento – with the even greater plethora of special interests and lobbyists – might yet learn to facilitate some of the process for the public good. And that might put the Golden State on a path to glisten. So again I ask, why the hesitation?

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Michele Bachmann: ‘I Want To Completely Abolish The Tax Code’

October 19, 2011

During Tuesday night’s GOP presidential debate on CNN, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) said the tax code needs to be entirely rewritten and replaced with a system where everyone pays federal income taxes, regardless of how much money they make. “I believe absolutely every American benefits by this magnificent country,” she said. “Absolutely every American should pay something, even if it’s just a dollar.” Of course, all Americans do pay some form of tax, whether in the form of payroll taxes, sales tax, or various other fees. But Bachmann said the government needs to throw out its tax code and rewrite it completely so that all residents pay the same rate. “I want to completely abolish the tax code,” she said. “I want to flatten the tax for all Americans. Simplify the tax for all Americans.”

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African Union to pledge funds for Horn drought crisis

August 24, 2011

(MENAFN – Gulf Times) African leaders is meeting tomorrow to pledge funds to tackle the famine in Somalia and extreme drought across the Horn of Africa which are putting millions of people at risk …

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Prtrofac eyes expansions worth USD4b to fund projects

August 24, 2011

(MENAFN) Petrofac’s chief executive, Ayman Asfari, stated that the company is planning to fund expansions in South East Asia and Africa worth USD4 billion, reported the National. The chief …

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China Suggests Time Is Right For New Global Reserve Currency

August 6, 2011

PRESS ASSOCIATION — China’s state-run news agency says America’s ‘debt-addiction’ is threatening the world economy and that Washington must slash its defence and social welfare spending. The commentary published by China’s official Xinhua News Agency is Beijing’s first official response to the downgrading of US debt. The commentary says that if Washington fails to rein in spending, there would be more “devastating” credit rating cuts to come and global financial turbulence. It demands international supervision over US dollar issues and suggests a new global reserve currency is needed. See also: US suffers first-ever credit rating downgrade.

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New Hampshire Republicans Restrict Minimum Wage

June 23, 2011

New Hampshire legislators voted to override a veto by Democratic Gov. John Lynch on Wednesday, paving the way for a new law to restrict the state’s minimum wage. The bill, sponsored by Republican Rep. Carol McGuire and strongly backed by GOP leadership, automatically ties the state minimum wage to the federal minimum wage, assuring that New Hampshire’s rate is as low as it can legally be. With its minimum wage currently set at the federal rate of $7.25 per hour, New Hampshire is ensuring that it will continue to have the lowest minimum wage in all of New England. Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut all have state minimum wages between $7.40 and $8.25 an hour. The fight over McGuire’s bill led to some unusual stances for New Hampshire politicians. McGuire has been honored by the libertarian-leaning New Hampshire Liberty Alliance and enjoyed Tea Party support, yet she essentially argued that the state should defer to the feds when it comes to the minimum wage. Meanwhile, the Democratic governor made a states’ rights argument for killing McGuire’s bill. Lynch said New Hampshire shouldn’t relinquish its right to set its own wage rate. The governor’s spokesman, Colin Manning, told HuffPost that as a result of the law New Hampshire now “cedes state control and authority” to the federal government. “New Hampshire has had a minimum wage law since 1949, and neither our citizens nor our businesses have called for its repeal,” Manning wrote in an email. “There is no need to undermine our state’s economic strategy or cede our state authority to the federal government, which is why the governor vetoed the bill.” Calls to McGuire and Republican House Speaker William O’Brien seeking comment were not returned. But in a statement after Lynch’s veto, O’Brien accused the governor of acting on “an anti-business philosophy” and “removing the ‘open for business’ sign” from New Hampshire by trying to maintain the current minimum wage flexibility. “There is no reason for New Hampshire to set ourselves higher than the national average and make ourselves less competitive for these workers who need to gain experience,” he said. Opponents of McGuire’s bill point out that the previous law did not set the New Hampshire minimum wage any higher than the federal rate — it only gave the state the option to do so if it pleased. Also, New Hampshire does not appear to have suffered from a competitive disadvantage, given that the minimum wages in neighboring states were already set higher. Several states have raised their minimum wage in recent years, but GOP leaders and business interests have assaulted some of those bumps as job killers. Missouri Republicans tried and failed to cap their state’s minimum wage earlier this year . Then in May, a Florida federal judge ruled that a state agency had been illegally suppressing its minimum wage. And business groups in Maine have lobbied for the creation of a ” training wage ” that would let companies pay teenagers less than the state minimum. The current federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour translates into a $15,000 salary for a full-time worker. Many economists now say that higher minimum wages can provide a boost to the sluggish economic recovery. “Given the fact that minimum wage workers spend every penny they earn in their local businesses, a strong wage floor is also vital to stimulating the consumer spending necessary for real and lasting economic recovery,” said Christine Owens, executive director of the National Employment Law Project, in a statement decrying legislators’ override of Lynch’s veto. Earlier this year, Democratic Rep. Terie Norelli called McGuire’s bill “just the beginning of what I think is a real assault on New Hampshire workers and wages and irresponsible legislation.” Last month, Lynch vetoed a bill brought forth by Republicans that would have converted New Hampshire into a so-called right-to-work state. The bill would prohibit collective bargaining contracts that require workers to pay union dues if they are not union members. It would make New Hampshire the first right-to-work state in New England. O’Brien has said Republicans will try to override Lynch’s veto of that bill in the fall.

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Marcelo Giugale: Give Africans a Stake in Their Own Wealth

June 23, 2011

When your government announces a big oil discovery, should you celebrate? A lot of sensible people will tell you that you shouldn’t. For them, natural resource wealth — large quantities of things like petroleum, gas or minerals — is actually a “curse,” not a blessing. How come? Well, “extractive industries” can flood your economy with foreign currency, make all your other industries uncompetitive, spoil your environment, and corrupt your politicians. The evidence is pretty suggestive: very few “commodities-rich” countries have done well, most have not. If that’s true, Africa has a problem. Not only is the continent rich in natural resources, but by some estimates it has only found a tenth of its riches. (Believe it or not, comprehensive geological maps of Africa do not exist). To make matters “worse,” commodity prices are projected to stay sky-high until at least 2015. The feeling of an imminent bonanza is already permeating the Congos, Gabon, Ghana, Guinea, Nigeria, Uganda and many others. Is there a way to avoid the curse? It will be easier on the economic and environmental sides — today’s central banks and NGOs know how to intervene quickly if local currencies appreciate too much or if large corporations pollute too much. The trickier issue is how to avoid the corruption usually associated with giving out licenses to explore and exploit, and with using the huge royalties that all this brings to governments. Fortunately, technology can help Africa avoid graft. Some 35 African countries already transfer cash directly to their poor — whether through smart-cards, debit cards, cellphones, or in person. This is getting cheaper and safer. The coverage of banking and cellular telephony services is expanding — the latter at viral speed. And biometric identification of individuals through mobile devices is rapidly catching up (Kenya is a good example). Logistically, there is nothing that prevents governments from transferring a part of the income coming from natural resources directly to each and every citizen, not just the poor. This kind of “direct dividend transfer” is of course not new — Alaska has been practicing it since the early 1980s. They will soon be possible in Africa too. Would putting money in Africans’ pockets, rather than in their governments’ treasuries, really reduce corruption? It probably will, for three reasons. First, it would intensify social monitoring. If you know your government is giving you ten percent of its new oil revenue, you will surely be interested in what it does with the other ninety percent. You will also want the company that explores, exploits and exports your natural resources to be managed competently — if it fails to find, extract and sell, you lose money. You will be less patient with the public monopolies that usually control those resources and behave as self-serving, unaccountable, states-within-the-state. In fact, you will begin to wonder whether your country should get rid of those public monopolies all together, and hire experienced, private operators to work for you. Second, direct dividend transfers would make politics more contestable. There is no question that the transfers would be popular. Social programs that deliver cash to the poor have survived presidential transitions everywhere — for example, in Chile, where the recent political alternation went from left to right, and in El Salvador, where it went from right to left. But incumbent governments may be reluctant to give up part of the easy revenue that comes from commodities — less money, less power. Democracy would take care of that, as politicians in opposition can only gain by proposing to give people real access to their nation’s wealth — “Vote for me and the oil is yours.” And third, alternative ways of transferring natural resource wealth are worse. Governments in resource-rich countries are always under political pressure to be seen as passing some of the “dividends” to the population. The usual means have been to give out tax breaks, sell fuel or food below their cost, or give away jobs in the civil service. All this has in practice been captured by the rich and the connected. (Rule of thumb: the average developing country spends more on subsidizing public college education for the rich than on primary schools for the poor). If anything, giving people a direct stake in their country’s riches can be an opportunity for — and can be funded by — the abolition of other inefficient, inequitable and morally-questionable transfers. You get a dividend, but you accept to pay full price for what you consume. Would transferring the same — probably small — amount of cash to all citizens be fair ? Optimally, one would want to means-test the transfer, that is, to give more to those who have less . However, trying to decide who is how rich in a developing country may prove politically impossible. But a uniform universal dividend would still be “progressive,” that is, it would be of more help to those who need help the most. Imagine: if the average African government decided to pass on a tenth of its resource revenues directly to its citizens, the dividend could be about $100 dollars per person per year. That may be peanuts for the better-off — they may not even bother to collect it — but it would be a huge game-changer for the two-thirds of Africans that live on two dollars a day or less. And if you are not just poor but also female, the transfer would carry a welcome dose of personal independence as well. More subtly, direct dividend transfers could help national unity. In countries where regional, racial or religious differences make it difficult to agree on how to share natural wealth — a problem that is all too common in Africa — the idea that everyone gets a cut of the riches, personally and individually, regardless of location, skin color or faith, just for being a citizen of the country, may be a useful source of national identity. (Yes, new biometric tools can take care of misidentification and fraud.) By now you are thinking: “If the institutions of government cannot be trusted with commodity revenue, should we not try to fix them instead of bypassing them?” True, and good progress is being made in getting civil society to participate in the management of public funds — Ghana is an African leader in that. But building institutions takes time and the new resources have started to come in. By sharing a portion of those resources with people early on , we may buy the time, and the political goodwill, necessary to construct more permanent tools for better governance.

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Strauss-Kahn To Plead Not Guilty On Monday

June 5, 2011

By Basil Katz NEW YORK (Reuters) – Former IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn will plead not guilty Monday to charges he tried to rape a New York hotel maid, an accusation that has wrecked his chance of becoming France’s next president. Praised for his role tackling the 2007-09 global financial crisis and attempts to keep Europe’s debt crisis under control, Strauss-Kahn, 62, is facing up to 25 years in prison if convicted on charges of a criminal sexual act, attempted rape, sex abuse, unlawful imprisonment and forcible touching. His lawyer, Benjamin Brafman, told Reuters that Strauss-Kahn will plead not guilty to the charges in New York Supreme Court before Judge Michael Obus Monday. Strauss-Kahn quit as managing director of the International Monetary Fund a few days after his May 14 arrest in the first-class section of an Air France plane, minutes before it was to depart New York for Paris. He is accused of attacking a 32-year-old African immigrant a few hours earlier when she came to clean his suite at the luxury Sofitel hotel in Midtown Manhattan, apparently believing it had been vacated. Strauss-Kahn, who has four daughters, said in his IMF resignation letter that he denies the charges but his court appearance Monday will be the start of what could be drawn-out legal proceedings. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde and Mexican central bank chief Agustin Carstens both want to replace Strauss-Kahn at the Washington-based IMF. Lagarde is the strong favorite but some developing countries are upset about the long-held practice of choosing a European to head the fund. Until the alleged sexual assault in New York, Strauss-Kahn had been expected to quit his IMF post for a different reason — a bid to become the Socialist candidate for president of France. He had been a strong favorite to beat conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy at the polls next year. Instead, Strauss-Kahn spent four days in New York’s Rikers Island jail before he was released on $1 million cash bail and $5 million bond and placed under house arrest with 24-hour armed guards and electronic monitoring. He spent a few days in a Lower Manhattan apartment but is now living in a luxurious townhouse rented by his wife — French television journalist Anne Sinclair — in Manhattan’s TriBeCa district. The townhouse has a gym and home cinema and was last posted for sale for almost $14 million. A prosecutor estimated Strauss-Kahn would pay $200,000 a month for his security arrangements. Strauss-Kahn’s lawyer has said that although his client has a net worth of roughly $2 million, his wife, an heiress, has ”substantially greater assets.” So far, Sinclair has not displayed any hesitation about using her personal wealth to help her husband. Strauss-Kahn also has been consulting with a posse of investigators and media advisers about how to deal with the criminal charges against him and how to limit any damage to his reputation from the allegations. (Additional reporting by Joseph Ax; Editing by Michelle Nichols and Eric Walsh) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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The End Of Cheap Coffee?

May 29, 2011

The painful struggle of Colombia’s coffee producers is part of a growing global challenge for the industry. Changing weather patterns have wreaked havoc on coffee supply, particularly the Arabica strain, which is grown in the Americas and Africa and which makes the best coffee. Brazil and Colombia are the top two producers of Arabica, but experts say the crops are not keeping up with skyrocketing demand in emerging markets like China, India and South America, as well as among consumers in Europe and North America.

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As France’s Lagarde Launches IMF Bid, China, Criticism Surfaces

May 25, 2011

PARIS/WASHINGTON (Jean-Baptiste Vey and Lesley Wroughton) – France’s Christine Lagarde has entered the race to head the IMF despite anger in big emerging economies over Europe’s “obsolete” lock on the job. France’s finance minister announced her candidacy on Wednesday, the eve of a G8 summit, after securing the unanimous backing of the 27-nation European Union and, diplomats said, support from the United States and China. “It is an immense challenge which I approach with humility and in the hope of achieving the broadest possible consensus,” Lagarde told a Paris news conference. The 55-year-old former corporate lawyer, who speaks fluent English, has won plaudits for her deft chairing of the G20 finance ministers and communications skills. But unlike Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who resigned last week after being charged with attempted rape, she is not an economist and may struggle to match his thought leadership over the management of the world economy. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa criticized EU officials in a joint statement for suggesting the next International Monetary Fund head should be a European, a convention that dates back to the founding of the global lender at the end of the Second World War. However, the countries known as the BRICs failed to unite behind a common alternative candidate, leaving the way clear for Lagarde unless she slips on a pending French legal case. Diplomats said the complaint was mostly aimed at securing a commitment from developed countries that nationality will no longer be a covert criterion for selecting future IMF chiefs. In a nod to the emerging nations’ concerns, Lagarde said she would work for “greater representativity and greater flexibility” at the IMF if elected. BRICS AGGRIEVED In the first joint statement issued by their directors at the Fund, the BRICs said the choice of who heads the IMF should be based on competence, not nationality. They called for “abandoning the obsolete unwritten convention that requires that the head of the IMF be necessarily from Europe.” Lagarde said she was running as a candidate to serve all IMF members, not just Europe, although she noted her experience and good relations with European officials would be an advantage in steering the IMF’s role in the bloc’s debt crisis. “Being European shouldn’t be a plus, but it shouldn’t be a minus either,” Lagarde said. Hours before the statement was issued in Washington, France’s government said China would back Lagarde. The Chinese Foreign Ministry declined comment. Some emerging market government officials say privately that although they are fed up with advanced economies controlling the selection process, they are not in a position to put forward a challenger who could stand up to Lagarde. Mexico has nominated its central bank chief for the job and he said some countries had welcomed his decision to run. South Africa and Kazakhstan may put forward their own candidates. Under a long-standing agreement between the United States and Europe, the top job at the IMF goes to a European while an American leads its sister organization, the World Bank. The United States also fills the number two position at the IMF. European diplomats said Washington had asked the French government about the legal case hanging over Lagarde, in which she faces accusations of abusing her authority. The Court of Justice of the Republic, a special court created to try ministers for alleged offences committed while in office, is examining the procedure followed in awarding the 285 million euro settlement to Bernard Tapie, a convicted ex-minister who backed Sarkozy’s 2007 election campaign. French officials have told other governments privately the case will not be a show-stopper, the diplomats said. Lagarde said her conscience was clear. “I have every confidence in this procedure because my conscience is perfectly clear,” she said. “I acted in the interest of the state and in respect of the law.” U.S. BACKS EUROPEAN The EU and the United States, which sources in Washington have said will back a European, have enough joint voting power to decide who leads the IMF. Securing support from some emerging economies would defuse a potentially bitter row over the decision though. In April 2009, the Group of 20 leading nations endorsed “an open, transparent and merit-based selection process” for heads of the global institutions. France, which presides over the G20 this year, has made an effort to work with Beijing on key issues for developing nations like global monetary reform and commodity market speculation. Last week, the head of China’s central bank, Zhou Xiaochuan, said the IMF’s leadership should reflect the growing stature of emerging economies. But he stopped short of saying its new boss should be from an emerging economy. Wu Qing, a researcher with the Development Research Center government think tank in Beijing, said it was plausible that China would support Lagarde as there weren’t many qualified candidates from China or Asia in general. The IMF’s board will draw up a shortlist of three candidates and has a June 30 deadline for picking a successor. (Additional reporting by Julien Toyer in Paris, Jiang Yan in Beijing, Leigh Jones and Michelle Nichols in New York; Writing by Emily Kaiser and Paul Taylor) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Report Warns Against Slashing Intelligence Budget

May 24, 2011

WASHINGTON — With America’s top terror target eliminated, the nation’s intelligence agencies fear they will look like a fat target for budget cuts. Their chief argument: Gutting intelligence budgets led to the shortfalls that allowed Osama bin Laden to carry out attacks in the first place. Lawmakers say they are well aware that the terror war is not over but warn that cuts are coming. Congress approved an intelligence budget of $80.1 billion in 2010, but lawmakers are keeping that roughly the same, slightly north of $80 billion for the next two years – and south of the White House’s request, according to two U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss classified budget figures. Those who lived through the purge of what is known as human intelligence – on-the-ground spies, informants and go-betweens – after the fall of the Soviet Union fear a rerun of the 1990s. Then, the spy world saw across-the-board cuts, agency by agency, on the theory that their main reason for being had ceased to be. “There was very little effort to look across the community and say if one organization is cutting analysts deeply in one area, let’s make sure another organization isn’t doing the same,” said former Pentagon intelligence official Joan Dempsey. The last time the budget masters took a buzz saw through the intelligence agencies, the White House was blindsided by al-Qaida’s strike on U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, Dempsey said. She’s among a wide spectrum of intelligence professionals warning against a repeat of such cuts, in a report released Tuesday by the Intelligence and National Security Alliance. “After the victory against the Soviet Union, we cut deeply across our capabilities in Africa, because people said we were in Africa because of the Soviet Union,” Dempsey said. That left the intelligence community practically blind during “an entire decade of unrest, and turmoil, in which U.S. troops had to intervene” in fragile states like Somalia, and al-Qaida built in strength, she said. The former chairman of the House intelligence committee, Rep. Peter Hoekstra, R-Mich., agrees. He remembers meeting resource-starved CIA officers in his first trips in 2001. “They told me they had no capability,” Hoekstra said, in a continent where the human intelligence needed to penetrate tribal and gang-supported unrest far outweighed the usefulness of the satellite and signals intelligence that was so popular at the time. “We let human intelligence die on the vine.” After al-Qaida attacked the U.S. on Sept. 11, 2001, “we tried to hire quickly to make up for the damage,” he said, “and sent a lot of people on dangerous assignments with not enough mentoring.” But Hoekstra also warned against cuts to satellite and signals intelligence investment, citing the lead time needed to develop and launch satellites to replace an aging fleet. New satellite systems are attractive to cut in the short term, because a single system often runs into the billions. But when the older satellites start failing, leaving gaps, the rush to replace them quickly can cost even more, he said. “I had about $2 for every dollar (former CIA Director George) Tenet had when al-Qaida struck on Sept. 11,” said retired Gen. Michael Hayden, who led the CIA from 2006 to 2009. Hayden oversaw one of the largest periods of expansion the intelligence agencies have ever seen. “So the record shows it paid off, but everyone recognizes it would be hard to sustain,” Hayden said. James Clapper, director of national intelligence, told Congress in February that he’d be making cuts across the community, signaling that the post-Sept. 11 rate of growth had come to an end. Several DNI officials were part of a task force that helped write the industry report released Tuesday. Clapper was careful not to identify what areas he has been thinking of cutting, Dempsey said, for fear the power of his suggestion might drive congressional committees to beat him to it. The intelligence budget has risen steadily since the Sept. 11 attacks, according to two U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the precise figures are classified. Clapper published the 2010 figure, at $80.1 billion, up from $75 billion the year before. The current version of the 2011 intelligence authorization act does cut some of the personnel requests made by the CIA, but adds millions of dollars and thousands of civilian positions, including “critical counter-terrorism positions at the CIA and a significant increase to the National Counterterrorism Center,” said a House intelligence committee member, Rep. Jim Langevin, D-R.I. Key programs like the CIA unit that hunted down bin Laden have been funded, but the lawmakers have started weeding out what they’ve decided are unnecessary duplications, said Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger, D-Md., the intelligence committee’s minority chairman: “There is duplication of programs. There are some programs we can’t afford, or that might have to be delayed for a few years.” Hayden said the cuts to the military make it all the more important to guard against cuts to intelligence, after Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned that a budget-reduced U.S. military may no longer be able to fight a two-front war. “If forces are going to be drawn down, then how you use those forces will be much more limited,” Hayden said. “So strategic intelligence is all the more important.”

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Gemma Godfrey: IMF Revelations: The End of European Dominance & the Rise of Emerging Markets?

May 20, 2011

As ” super-injunctions ” are labelled ” pointless ” by the rise of ‘new’ social media sites, the world seems a smaller place for those wanting to hide potential transgressions. Indeed, such accusations can have broad ramifications, as the head of the International Monetary Fund this week steps down from his leadership position. Could this trigger the end of European dominance at the IMF and even pave the way for Emerging Market leaders to acquire a more appropriate size of the power pie? Jurisdiction Arbitrage: The Super-Injunction Flaw Last week, an anonymous twitter user exploited a ‘jurisdiction arbitrage’ to name celebrities whose identities are being protected by a series of ‘gagging-orders’. The Twitter site is based in the U.S. and therefore ” outside the jurisdiction of the British courts “. Furthermore, not only would the user himself be ” difficult to trace ” but the number of other users who forwarded on the names and could be charged represented a ” mass defiance ” and ” unlikely ” any of them would be pursued. Therefore potential wrong-doers can, for the moment at least, be named and shamed in some form of media. Just how dangerous can these revelations be? The IMF Revelation This week, legalities are once again in the headlines as Dominique Strauss-Kahn, (now the former) head of the International Monetary Fund, stands accused of politically damaging indiscretions . Regardless of the outcome of the case, the political impact has been made, and focus is on identifying his potential successor. The European Bias Historically the IMF Managing Director has been European and the World Bank President American but nowhere in the ” Articles of Agreement ‘ is this mentioned. So where did this bias come from? It dates back to the Bretton Woods conference, where the fund was formed and this informal agreement struck. In the aftermath of World War II, European economic stability played a large part in the health of the world’s economy and voting power reflected the balance of power. The U.S. has a 16.7 percent share, Germany 5.9 percent and the UK & France 4.9 percent each; leaving the ‘door open’ for ‘behind the scenes’ negotiations . Unsurprisingly, since this time, there have been 10 Managing Directors, all of them European. Flaws of a European Successor Proponents of a continuation of European dominance point to the IMF’s crucial role in stemming the European Sovereign Debt crisis. A German government spokesman, Christoph Steegmans, maintains that the leader needs to understand ” Europe’s particularities .” Interesting then that there has been no talk of electing an official from the Middle East as Egypt requests a $4bn loan to ‘ fill its budget gap .’ With all the turmoil, doesn’t a leader need to understand the ‘particularities’ of this region too? Instead, focus is on German candidates (including Axel Weber, the former head of the Central Bank who recently withdrew from the race to succeed Trichet as head of the ECB). A favourite amongst pundits is French finance Minister Christine Lagarde. Bank of Canada Governor, Mark Carney has even been given odds of 10-to-1 by a British bookmaker. Gordon Brown’s name has even been thrown into the ring but was quickly opposed by our PM Cameron, due to the record budget deficit which continued to build during his tenure. Here lies the crux of the issue, since the EU and ECB have yet to solve the debt crisis, is it time for someone else to have a go? Opportunity for Developing Markets The economic balance of power is changing. China has overtaken Japan as the second largest economy and it has been argued that it will surpass the U.S.’s share of global GDP in a decade . Back in 1973, the developing nations asserted more of their power as a group led by Indonesia and Iran vetoed the nomination of a Dutch candidate (seen as too closely aligned to the interests of wealthy nations). With this in mind, candidates from South Africa , Turkey , Singapore , Indonesia , Mexico and a Chinese official who advises the IMF already have been mentioned in the press. Brazil too has contributed to the discussion, as their Finance Minister argues for a ” new criteria “. Indeed changes to IMF governance were decided in 2008 and last year, shifting 5.3 percent of the voting share to emerging markets. Although nothing has yet taken effect. However, with the increased contribution of funding coming from these regions and the negativity within these countries expressed against too much focus on the developed world, change is warranted. Investment Conclusion As ever, economic issues can often lie opposed to equity market movement. But changes (or continuation) of dominance could affect short-term sentiment for various country’s financial markets. Exploit any over-reaction in the short-term whilst remaining focused on quality in the longer-term. The shift of economic power is well underway, let’s see if the political powers play catch up….

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Toyota’s Profit Plunges After Japan Disaster

May 11, 2011

TOKYO — Toyota’s quarterly profit crumpled more than 75 percent after the March earthquake and tsunami wiped out parts suppliers in northeastern Japan, severely disrupting car production. The maker of the popular Prius hybrid gave no forecast for the current fiscal year through March 2012, citing an uncertain outlook because production continues to be hampered by shortages of parts. Toyota is expected to lose its spot as the world’s top-selling automaker to General Motors Co. this year because of the disasters. The automaker’s president Akio Toyoda said he and others at Toyota are “gritting our teeth” to keep jobs in Japan. He promised to disclose earnings forecasts by mid-June. Toyota Motor Corp. reported Wednesday that January-March profit slid to 25.4 billion yen ($314 million) from 112.2 billion yen a year earlier. For the fiscal year ended March 2011, Toyota’s earnings doubled, showing that the Japanese automaker had been on the way to recovery from its recall crisis when the magnitude-9.0 earthquake struck on March 11. But Toyota also said efforts to fix production, including using other plants and finding replacement parts, were going better than initially expected, with car manufacturing expected to gradually pick up in Japan and abroad from next month to 70 percent of pre-disaster levels. Toyota earlier said such production improvements wouldn’t start in Japan until about July, and overseas in August, with a full recovery not expected until late this year. “Our priority is to get our production back to normal and recover from the disaster,” a somber Toyoda told reporters. When a full recovery would come was still unknown, he said. By the end of May, the crisis has cost the company production of 550,000 vehicles in Japan, and another 350,000 overseas. Production is now back at about 50 percent. “By reviving our company, we want to help bring Japan’s comeback,” said Toyoda. Analysts say the quake and tsunami have sorely hurt Toyota but a production recovery could come quickly. “I think chances may be good that getting production back would be speedy,” Shotaro Noguchi, analyst at SMBC Nikko Capital Markets in Tokyo, said in a recent report. Still, Toyota may face a different kind of challenge in the months ahead because the government has asked for a shutdown of the Hamaoka nuclear power plant, which is located on a fault-line and furnishes the power supply for the region where Toyota is headquartered and has many of its plants and suppliers. The request came because of growing fears about the safety of nuclear power after the tsunami damaged the cooling systems at the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant on the northeastern coast, sending it to the brink of a meltdown. Toyoda did not say how much the Hamaoka shutdown would reduce production, but promised the company would do its utmost to secure a stable power supply. He said production at all lines for all models would be back at pre-disaster levels by November or December at the latest, but efforts are under way to do it faster. The hit Toyota has taken makes it likely a resurgent General Motors will regain the title of world’s No. 1 automaker by annual vehicle sales. Toyota overtook GM as the world’s biggest automaker in 2008, a distinction the American manufacturer had held since 1932. Toyota said it sold 7.31 million vehicles for the fiscal year through March 2011, up by 71,000 vehicles from the previous year. For the January-March period, Toyota sold 1.79 million vehicles worldwide. That is fewer than the 2.22 million vehicles GM sold and fewer than No. 3 automaker, Volkswagen AG of Germany, at 1.99 million. Toyoda said the automaker was still missing about 30 types of parts, although that was an improvement from the 150 it had lacked before. Toyota hopes to be producing at 70 percent of its pre-quake levels by June. The automaker’s full-year results highlight how, when the quake struck, Toyota had been on its way to a recovery from the recall fiasco, affecting 14 million vehicles worldwide, which had battered its reputation for quality. Sales for the January-March quarter dipped 12 percent year-on-year to 4.6 trillion yen ($57 billion), according to Toyota. For the fiscal year ended March 2011, profit doubled to 408.1 billion yen ($5 billion) from 209.4 billion yen the previous year. Annual sales edged up 0.2 percent to 18.99 trillion yen ($234 billion). Toyota said vehicle sales fell in North America, Japan and Europe, but it had robust sales in other regions, such as the rest of Asia, Africa and South America. Toyota is especially struggling in the U.S., where its April sales rose just 1 percent from the previous year, while GM’s car and truck sales surged 26 percent and South Korean rival Hyundai Motor Co. posted a 40 percent jump in sales. Like other Japanese exporters, Toyota has been hurt by the surging yen, which erodes overseas earnings. The dollar has now fallen to near 80 yen from about 90 yen a year earlier. “Despite negative factors such as a rapid rise in the yen and the earthquake, our profit sharply rose, thanks to massive cost-cutting and sales efforts,” said Toyoda, referring to the full-year result. Honda, which reported a quarterly profit drop of 38 percent last month, has said it doesn’t expect to return to full production in Japan until the end of the year. Toyota shares closed up 0.6 percent at 3,270 yen ($40) in Tokyo, shortly before earnings were announced. That is still down 9 percent from before the quake. ___ Associated Press writer Shino Yuasa contributed to this report.

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Jeffrey Sachs: The Global Economy’s Corporate Crime Wave

May 8, 2011

The world is drowning in corporate fraud, and the problems are probably greatest in rich countries — those with supposedly “good governance.” Poor-country governments probably accept more bribes and commit more offenses, but it is rich countries that host the global companies that carry out the largest offenses. Money talks, and it is corrupting politics and markets all over the world. Hardly a day passes without a new story of malfeasance. Every Wall Street firm has paid significant fines during the past decade for phony accounting, insider trading, securities fraud, Ponzi schemes, or outright embezzlement by CEOs. A massive insider-trading ring is currently on trial in New York, and has implicated some leading financial-industry figures. And it follows a series of fines paid by America’s biggest investment banks to settle charges of various securities violations. There is, however, scant accountability. Two years after the biggest financial crisis in history, which was fueled by unscrupulous behavior by the biggest banks on Wall Street, not a single financial leader has faced jail. When companies are fined for malfeasance, their shareholders, not their CEOs and managers, pay the price. The fines are always a tiny fraction of the ill-gotten gains, implying to Wall Street that corrupt practices have a solid rate of return. Even today, the banking lobby runs roughshod over regulators and politicians. Corruption pays in American politics as well. The current governor of Florida, Rick Scott, was CEO of a major health-care company known as Columbia/HCA. The company was charged with defrauding the United States government by overbilling for reimbursement, and eventually pled guilty to 14 felonies, paying a fine of $1.7 billion. The FBI’s investigation forced Scott out of his job. But, a decade after the company’s guilty pleas, Scott is back, this time as a “free-market” Republican politician. When Barack Obama wanted somebody to help with the bailout of the US automobile industry, he turned to a Wall Street “fixer,” Steven Rattner, even though Obama knew that Rattner was under investigation for giving kickbacks to government officials. After Rattner finished his work at the White House, he settled the case with a fine of a few million dollars. But why stop at governors or presidential advisers? Former Vice President Dick Cheney came to the White House after serving as CEO of Halliburton. During his tenure at Halliburton, the firm engaged in illegal bribery of Nigerian officials to enable the company to win access to that country’s oil fields — access worth billions of dollars. When Nigeria’s government charged Halliburton with bribery, the company settled the case out of court, paying a fine of $35 million. Of course, there were no consequences whatsoever for Cheney. The news barely made a ripple in the US media. Impunity is widespread — indeed, most corporate crimes go un-noticed. The few that are noticed typically end with a slap on the wrist, with the company — meaning its shareholders — picking up a modest fine. The real culprits at the top of these companies rarely need to worry. Even when firms pay mega-fines, their CEOs remain. The shareholders are so dispersed and powerless that they exercise little control over the management. The explosion of corruption — in the US, Europe, China, India, Africa, Brazil, and beyond — raises a host of challenging questions about its causes, and about how to control it now that it has reached epidemic proportions. Corporate corruption is out of control for two main reasons. First, big companies are now multinational, while governments remain national. Big companies are so financially powerful that governments are afraid to take them on. Second, companies are the major funders of political campaigns in places like the US, while politicians themselves are often part owners, or at least the silent beneficiaries of corporate profits. Roughly one-half of US Congressmen are millionaires, and many have close ties to companies even before they arrive in Congress. As a result, politicians often look the other way when corporate behavior crosses the line. Even if governments try to enforce the law, companies have armies of lawyers to run circles around them. The result is a culture of impunity, based on the well-proven expectation that corporate crime pays. Given the close connections of wealth and power with the law, reining in corporate crime will be an enormous struggle. Fortunately, the rapid and pervasive flow of information nowadays could act as a kind of deterrent or disinfectant. Corruption thrives in the dark, yet more information than ever comes to light via email and blogs, as well as Facebook, Twitter, and other social networks. We will also need a new kind of politician leading a new kind of political campaign, one based on free online media rather than paid media. When politicians can emancipate themselves from corporate donations, they will regain the ability to control corporate abuses. Moreover, we will need to light the dark corners of international finance, especially tax havens like the Cayman Islands and secretive Swiss banks. Tax evasion, kickbacks, illegal payments, bribes, and other illegal transactions flow through these accounts. The wealth, power, and illegality enabled by this hidden system are now so vast as to threaten the global economy’s legitimacy, especially at a time of unprecedented income inequality and large budget deficits, owing to governments’ inability politically — and sometimes even operationally — to impose taxes on the wealthy. So the next time you hear about a corruption scandal in Africa or other poor region, ask where it started and who is doing the corrupting. Neither the US nor any other “advanced” country should be pointing the finger at poor countries, for it is often the most powerful global companies that have created the problem. Originally published by Project Syndicate.

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Rahim Kanani: Aleem Walji of the World Bank Institute’s Innovation Team on the Future of International Development

May 6, 2011

As part of an on-going series on social innovation, I recently interviewed Aleem Walji, Practice Manager for Innovation at the World Bank Institute. We discussed the intersection between innovation and development, the future of social enterprise, current initiatives and efforts underway in the Innovation Practice, challenges and opportunities moving forward within these sectors, and much more. Aleem joined the World Bank Institute as Practice Manager for Innovation in November 2009. Previously, he was Head of Global Development Initiatives at Google.org and Chief Executive Officer of the Aga Khan Foundation in Syria. Aleem was trained as a social anthropologist and urban planner at Emory University and MIT. Rahim Kanani: How would you characterize the intersection of innovation and development, and the emergence of social enterprise as a widely studied, taught, and advancing discipline? Aleem Walji: Governments alone cannot meet the service delivery needs of all their people. They need partners, expertise and access to pools of capital. The private sector helps to fill this gap as commercial actors and non-commercial actors expand access to public goods and basic services to the poor. Social enterprise is a fuzzy term that’s used to describe many things but largely refers to private actors providing goods and services to the poor and optimizing for something other than a pure financial return. The challenge has been in measuring non-financial impact. Investors may be willing to accept lower financial returns if they can measure precisely they are achieving in meeting health, education or water outcomes. The emergence of industry standards for social metrics, industry associations like GIIN (Global Impact Investing Network) are all very promising and will help unlock additional sources of capital motivated by some combination of financial and social objectives. Capital is often but not always the primary constraint. The challenge is matching the right kind of capital with the needs of entrepreneurs at a particular stage of development. Cash-flow based lending and access to working capital for example, are still rare in much of Africa and South Asia and yet that’s what many early stage entrepreneurs need. Rationalizing the deployment of capital — that is understanding when grants are the right instrument, when equity can play a role, and when debit is appropriate — is key to helping the sector grow. And from the perspective of the World Bank is critical in leveraging private resources to complement public capacity in meeting the needs of the poor. Rahim Kanani: How will social innovation and social enterprise shape the next decade of international development, and what role do you envision the World Bank playing in that regard? Aleem Walji: Our role is to be a catalyst. We should be focusing on creating infrastructure for others to build on and use. In the world of social enterprise and social innovation more broadly we’re focused on developing platforms and networks bringing global players together to solve really important problems. For example, if we can contribute to the creation of a new asset class — impact investing — by supporting intermediaries, targeted technical assistance, and incentivizing investments where gaps exist today, then others will help grow the sector and expand opportunities within it. Our role may not always be most visible but good infrastructure works in ways that people sometimes take for granted. Another example is our work around Open data. Data is fuel and good data is rocket fuel. By making information and better data available on indicators like infant mortality, GDP growth rates, and CO2 emissions, we motivate others to build applications based on our curated data sets and reach people we cannot reach ourselves. Our  Apps for Development competition is a case in point. Developers built applications we would have never thought to create. They saw a pain-point and used our data to build their own aspirin solutions. It’s not about vitamins and telling people what’s good for them. It’s about making ingredients available so people can develop their own remedies to their own problems. The right information available to the right people at the right time can be transformative. Rahim Kanani: What do you now know, that you didn’t know when you joined the World Bank Institute in November 2009? Aleem Walji: I feel even more certain after joining the World Bank Group that no single institution can be the global repository of knowledge. Knowledge lives everywhere and is inherently decentralized. The key is to make it easy to find and accessible when and where where it is needed. In agricultural extension for example, the expertise of the best farmer in a region is often more valuable than any textbook or external expert. Making that knowledge available to large numbers of farmers is hugely valuable. That’s the central goal of the World Bank Institute’s practitioner to practitioner exchange. The Bank aspires to connect learning, knowledge, talent, and innovation wherever it lives. It’s about South-South, North-South, and South-North  learning, it’s about connecting experts and expertise, and putting innovators into direct contact with each other. As Judy Rodin from the Rockefeller Foundation eloquently says, “the world is our laboratory and the combination of globalization and information technology just accelerates the spread of innovation”. If we can make innovation more inclusive , user-driven and user-centric, there will be more opportunities to tackle poverty and tap expertise wherever it lies. Rahim Kanani: What worries you the most about the way in which international development is currently understood and practiced? Aleem Walji: Top-down models that replicate what hasn’t worked for decades. Getting more efficient at doing the wrong thing is a real risk. We have to come to terms with what simply has not worked. There is plenty of data and evidence to suggest we need to re-think traditional development paradigms. For example, the expert-led model where knowledge is highly centralized and parcelled out from the North to the South is out-dated. We are moving towards a much flatter world in which countries and people can learn from one another no matter where they sit. A key opportunity for the World Bank Group is to connect the supply and demand sides of knowledge and talent. That implies a transformation in how we see ourselves: a move from the knowledge bank to being global connector and curator of learning, knowledge, and innovation. Institutions like the World Bank can be powerful enablers when we partner with people and institutions in the countries in which we work. But we need to listen better, be honest about what has and hasn’t worked, and move from centralized, expert-led, and linear models to collaborative, open, and networked approaches that connect experts with  expertise which is widely distributed. Rahim Kanani: At the same time, what are you most optimistic about? Aleem Walji: That some of the most impactful innovations that improve the lives of poor people are coming from the poor themselves and from non-traditional actors. Jeff Sachs has called the mobile phone the most important technology for ending poverty in the world today. I think that’s right. It’s not technology alone but how people adopt and adapt technology and use it as an enabler to accelerate change. Moving the phone from the ear to the hand will unleash a revolution in poor countries that we’re only beginning to understand. Eric Von Hippel at MIT’s Sloan school writes about democratizing innovation and the rise of user-led innovation. I think we’re seeing it all around us in how people are using mobile devices and developing off-grid solutions to access power in remote parts of the world. Perhaps the greatest value we can add is in removing constraints to people-led innovation and lubricating their path to growth. Legal and regulatory obstacles often prevent scale. Managing risks is preferable to eliminating them. The example of mobile money in Kenya is a case in point. It’s precisely because the regulator was willing to take risks and allow a phone company to build on a user-led trend of exchanging phone credits, that mobile-based money emerged and drastically expanded access to financial services by the poor. The role of progressive donors like DFID was no less important in testing early stage prototypes. These are important examples we can learn from and notice that user-led innovation fueled the growth of a new industry. When we look today at Egypt, Tunisia, or others countries in the Middle East, we see similar citizen-led social innovation. The use of technology certainly didn’t create social transformation but it accelerated change from one country to another and mobilized young people in unimaginable ways. What can we do to support these people and help them move from protest to democratic transition to engaged citizenship? That’s a question I hope many people are asking themselves because getting it right is so important. Technology is just an enabler but a powerful tool in the hands of a responsible and engaged citizenry. Rahim Kanani: As the former Head of Global Development Initiatives at Google.org, what does your Google experience have in common with your World Bank experience thus far? Aleem Walji: The World Bank and Google both think big but think about scale in different ways. At Google, scale is about developing and rolling out products to millions of users. At the World Bank, it’s about recognizing and developing solutions that will affect the lives of millions of people. In both roles, I’m interested in how innovation and technology can enable and accelerate progress in fighting poverty.  I don’t think incremental change is sufficient to solve the hardest problems in the world. Given the urgency of so many challenges we face today, there is a need for disruptive and transformative innovation. Rahim Kanani: What does the word “innovation” mean at the World Bank, and how would you describe your position within the context of Bank activities around the world? Aleem Walji: In my mind, Innovation within the context of the World Bank is about  what we choose to do and how we go about doing it. I spend the majority of my time focusing on the  what and encouraging the Bank to think about doing very different things. Our Global Apps for Development Competition for example, gave us the opportunity to put development experts into direct contact with software developers. We opened-up very large data sets and challenged the world to create useful applications. We were amazed by the creativity and innovation of developers who created  uses of our data that would have never occurred to us. And that was the point. People closest to problems are incredibly imaginative and if properly equipped with information and tools can offer solutions to problems that outside experts would not. And I think we’ve only scratched the surface of what’s possible by reaching out to a world of non-traditional  experts to help us move the needle on poverty. But that simply can’t and won’t happen unless we create the institutional space for people to take risks and learn from failure. That’s the critical  how of innovation. It’s less about coming up with perfect solutions and more about creating an environment where staff and partners feel free to take initiative, move quickly towards execution, rapid learning, and continuous improvement. Failing fast and learning from failure is not part of the World Bank’s parlance. But it’s essential if we’re going to evolve as an institution and iterate rapidly. This requires our leaders to ask probing questions, be open to new ideas, and give people permission to try them. The world around the Bank is changing fast; innovation is happening all around us. Our relevance depends on our ability to adapt to it. Rahim Kanani: What have been some of the milestone achievements of the Innovation Practice in recent past? Aleem Walji: We’ve been involved in several areas that I think are worth mentioning. The first is Open Data. Last April, through a cross-Bank effort, we adopted a new policy resulting in more than 7,000 development indicators becoming available in our data catalogue at no cost. Our information and data are not just public but  searchable ,  downloadable in machine-readable formats (including through APIs), and  re-usable . And users are coming to our data catalogue in huge numbers surpassing traffic to our World Bank homepage. We’ve realized our clients and our users are not the same group. For most people we’re as much the Databank as the World Bank. This has led to our Development Economics and Research Group to expand our data catalogue regularly. Open Data is pushing us to re-think our role in the development space: what information do we share, how do we share it and collaborate with partners, and what does it mean to create open-source solutions to development problems? The Bank’s  Mapping for Results initiative complements Open Data by adding a geospatial dimension. Interactive poverty maps overlaid with information about where the Bank’s projects are located and where funding flows is eye-opening at many levels. We see relationships between for example infant mortality and where we’re our loans support health and water projects at the sub-national level. The question of  who does what where is a such a black hole in development and Mapping for Results shows where gaps exist in development programs, the clustering of aid programs, and whether results correlate with aid flows. All of this became possible by capturing geo-data (now even possible on most mobile phones) and creating simple mash-ups. We’re working with the Development Gateway Foundation to create a  geo-coding manual to allow other donors and Governments to learn from our experience and develop their own geo-tools. We’ve learned that maps are a very powerful story-telling tool particularly when they help visualize the relationships between very large and disparate data sets. Rahim Kanani: Walk us through some concrete examples of innovative development practices that your office was involved in, with respect to identifying the model, evaluating the model, and ultimately taking the model to scale. Aleem Walji: Scale is everyone’s goal but eludes most development actors. At the World Bank Institute, we talk about moving from retail to wholesale. In practice, this often means working through partners, supporting intermediaries, and figuring out  how and  where we can best add value. The Development Marketplace (DM) program comes to mind. For more than 10 years, we’ve been making small grants to social enterprises globally. The program aims to complement the provision of public goods by Governments by scaling-up the provision of public goods through non-public actors. But for the World Bank to make small scale grants to social entrepreneurs is inefficient and often cumbersome for our grantees. So we want to support local intermediaries to provide pre-investment technical assistance to social enterprises and connect them to a growing pool of socially motivated investors particularly local capital. Our goal is to use the DM Platform to connect high potential pipeline to impact investors, philanthropic capital and social investment funds. We see a major gap between the needs of most social enterprises (requiring early stage angel finance) and where most impact investors sit along the conveyor belt of capital (wishing to deploy private equity/debt). To increase deal-flow, there is a role for targeted pipeline development, reducing due diligence costs, and making early-stage finance available for a broader range of small but growing enterprises. We’re working with a range of government partners, philanthropies, and social investors (including the Aspen Network of Development Entrepreneurs) to test this model in India and East Africa as a starting point. If we can leverage our convening power, relationship with governments, and balance sheet, we can help fill a key gap in the social investment ecosystem. Rahim Kanani: If your work and the Innovation Practice rest upon one core philosophy about the way in which the world works, what is that philosophy? Aleem Walji: Focus on the user and start with problems that matter. Too often we’re answers looking for questions. And the answer can’t be the same if the question is different. Scale is ultimately about the repeatability of a solution based on a homogeneous problem. The private sector has learned the importance of listening to clients. Non-profits and public agencies struggle because the incentives of their funders and their end users are not always aligned.  But if you can create the right incentives for groups to be client or user-focused, I think you get better results. Getting something wrong because it’s a really hard problem is understandable but getting something wrong because you don’t listen to your users is totally avoidable. We can do better and we must do better in listening to our clients and ultimately our clients’ client — the citizen. While I would not describe myself as a techno-determinist, I do believe in the disruptive power of technology to accelerate positive social and economic change. We’ve seen it now in the Middle East with social media and communications technologies and in Kenya and the Philippines with mobile banking and financial inclusion. But intent matters a great deal as technology is value neutral. When harnessed with positive intent, I believe ICTs can enable people to make enormous progress in timeframes that were previously just not possible. — Below is a short video marking the one-year anniversary of the World Bank’s Open Data initiative. For more information: Apps for Development: Website | Video Apps for Development Ceremony Photos: Part 1 | Part 2 Mapping for Results: Website Development Marketplace: Website Aleem Walji: Blog Posts | Video — Previous interviews on social innovation include Bill Drayton of Ashoka, Sally Osberg of the Skoll Foundation, Eric Nee of the Stanford Social Innovation Review, Judith Rodin of the Rockefeller Foundation, and many more. Cross-posted with World Affairs Commentary

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Chinese Tech Giants Fight Over 4G Phones

May 5, 2011

BEIJING — Two of China’s biggest technology companies have launched a court battle in Europe over mobile phone patents in a rare public clash between firms Beijing is promoting as national champions. The fight between Huawei Technologies Ltd. and ZTE Corp. highlights the challenge for communist leaders who need to manage Chinese corporate ambitions as they try to create global competitors in telecoms, energy and other fields. It is the first case of its kind between major Chinese companies, which usually settle disputes in private. “We’re going to see more of this in this industry and others,” said David Wolf, a technology marketing consultant in Beijing. “The government will find, wow, we’ve got these national champions, but now they’re trying to kill each other.” The dispute centers on fourth-generation mobile technology, which companies that are developing it say will deliver more stable connections, wireless broadband and other advances. It is in limited use in the United States and being tested elsewhere. Control of key patents could help decide which equipment suppliers are positioned to reap billions of dollars in sales once it is rolled out in other markets. Huawei and ZTE make network gear, the core of phone systems. They have multibillion-dollar annual sales in China, Africa and Latin America and see themselves as potential global 4G leaders. That fits with Communist Party hopes to transform China from a low-cost factory into a creator of profitable technology. Huawei announced last week it filed patent infringement lawsuits against ZTE in France, Germany and Hungary. ZTE rejected the claims and said it has asked a French court and Chinese regulators to invalidate a Huawei patent. Huawei and ZTE are among China’s first wave of fledgling multinational companies. They compete with Nokia-Siemens Networks, Ericsson and Alcatel-Lucent and have a small but growing U.S. and European presence. Their dispute comes amid mounting complaints by foreign business groups about Beijing’s industrial policy. They say China is improperly supporting favored companies by limiting market access and providing low-cost loans and other support. Huawei’s lawsuits accuse ZTE of infringing patents for data cards and improperly using a Huawei-registered trademark on some of its products. “We will do whatever is required to ensure that the use of Huawei’s intellectual property by any company is based on internationally accepted protocols and practices,” said Huawei’s chief legal officer, Song Liuping, in a statement. ZTE said its lawsuit accused Huawei of infringing its 4G patents. The company said it also has asked a French court and China’s State Intellectual Property Office to invalidate Huawei’s patents for a rotary USB connector used to exchange data between devices. “ZTE respects the intellectual property rights of other companies, but it will not stop protecting its own intellectual property rights,” said a company statement. Huawei, founded in 1987 by a former Chinese military engineer, has 110,000 employees and reported 2010 revenues of 182 billion yuan ($28 billion). ZTE, founded in 1985, has 70,000 workers and reported 2010 revenues of 70 billion yuan ($10.8 billion). Their status as industry leaders gives both high-level political influence. But Chinese leaders want both to succeed – a possible reason for a stalemate and the decision to go to court. An impartial ruling by a European court also might add to the winner’s appeal for potential customers by reinforcing its status as a technology creator, rather than a Chinese policy tool. “They are making an interesting statement by filing those lawsuits not in Chinese courts but overseas, because Chinese courts are perceived to be very political, and they want this matter obviously adjudicated on the legal merits,” said Wolf, CEO of Wolf Group Asia. Huawei and ZTE are unusual among major Chinese companies because they compete directly with each other, offering similar products in the same markets. Authorities who want China’s potential global companies to focus their competitive energies on foreign rivals have tried to head off clashes in other industries by assigning different markets or products to individual enterprises. In aerospace, a plan to create a homegrown jetliner to compete with Boeing Co. and Airbus Industrie was assigned to one state-owned company while a potential rival was told to develop a smaller regional jet instead. Huawei has suffered setbacks as it tries to expand in the United States. It was forced in February to unwind its acquisition of 3Leaf Systems, a maker of cloud computing technology, after it failed to win approval from a U.S. security panel. In a separate case, Huawei won a court order that temporarily blocked the sale of Motorola Solutions Inc.’s network business to rival Nokia-Siemens Networks. Huawei said the deal might reveal business secrets because Motorola sold Huawei equipment. Motorola settled with Huawei for an undisclosed fee. Also this month, Ericsson said it has filed lawsuits against ZTE in Britain, Germany and Italy accusing the company of infringing patents for handset and network technology. The Swedish company asked the courts to block ZTE from selling mobile phones that contain the disputed technology and some network products. ___ Array Array

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South Africa’s unemployment up 25%

May 4, 2011

South Africa’s unemployment up 25%

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Abebe Aemro Selassie: Confessions of a Dismal Scientist — Africa’s Resilience

May 3, 2011

Like many economists, I tend to fear the worst. I have witnessed phenomenal changes for the better in sub-Saharan Africa over the past 20 odd years. Part of me still worries that this trajectory will not endure. But, the more I see of the region’s economic performance and outlook , the more I’m changing my tune. Old anxieties set aside Until my latest source for anxiety took hold a few months ago (more on this in a moment), I’d worried about the impact of the global financial crisis on sub-Saharan Africa. The crisis hit just as many countries in the region were starting to enjoy a hard-earned period of economic growth, their best since at least the 1970s. I did not want this to be derailed by the crisis. Previous global economic slowdowns were unkind to the region. While other regions tended to recover quickly, recoveries in sub-Saharan Africa tended to be more protracted, looking more U- or even L-shaped. So, in the face of the worst period for the global economy in two-generations, what chance did the still fragile economies have? However, it soon became clear that this time would be different. And in fact, my initial fears were unfounded. This time the region’s recovery has been more V-shaped. Credit for that goes, in large part, to policymakers in the region. Good macroeconomic policies in many more countries the years before the crisis put them in good stead to weather the crisis relatively well. This allowed them to adopt strong counter-cyclical monetary and fiscal policies. And, looking ahead, the recovery to pre-crisis growth rates is well underway in most countries. As we report in our latest Regional Economic Outlook , output in sub-Saharan Africa looks set to expand by around 5½ this year and 6 percent in 2012. To be sure, the crisis has caused considerable dislocation. The 1 million or so jobs lost in South Africa are a case in point. Elsewhere, progress towards the poverty reduction Millennium Development Goal has also been delayed. But it could also have been much worse. In the face of the largest shock to the global economy, many sub-Saharan African countries have shown surprising resilience. Tackling worries My latest worry is the recent sharp increase in food and fuel prices on world markets. When food prices spiked in 2008, there was a prompt and pronounced increase in local prices in most African countries. So far, this time, we have seen a more diverse picture. In a number of countries, strong harvests have helped in limiting increases in local food price. But, in many other countries, prices have started to increase sharply. This will be particularly harmful for the urban poor and landless rural households. The surge in fuel prices will also test the resilience that the region has exhibited in recent years. For the region’s 37 oil importing countries, it will imply higher oil import costs, and higher fiscal deficits where the pass-through of international price to domestic price is delayed. And, across the region, it will imply higher inflation. To help minimize the dislocation that this shock may entail, countries should consider a two-pronged policy response: Wherever food price increases are pronounced, governments should consider targeted interventions–providing the poorest families with transfers from the budget or, less directly, by subsidizing food items they consume. In the case of fuel prices, however, we recommend that local prices should adjust in line with international prices. Fuel price subsidies tend to be highly regressive–the bulk of the benefits go to the richest households–and very costly. So, once again, I might fear the worst. But, witnessing how countries handled the global financial crisis gives me hope–hope that the appropriate policies will be adopted and will be as effective this time too. And that gives this dismal scientist cause for optimism. From iMFdirect blog

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South Africa’s trade USD147m

May 3, 2011

South Africa’s trade USD147m

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Donald Trump: ‘I Am Very Proud Of Myself’

April 28, 2011

DOVER, N.H. — After weeks of suggesting Barack Obama was born in Africa, Donald Trump hastened to boast that he had forced the Democratic president to release a detailed Hawaii birth certificate disproving that claim, painting an apparent setback as a victory within minutes of arriving in the first-in-the-nation primary state. The developer and reality TV show host, who is considering a White House run, again showed the difficulty establishment Republicans are having in controlling the early stages of their wide-open nominating contest. He also proved himself a nimble messenger, or spinner. “Today I am very proud of myself because I have accomplished something that nobody else has been able to accomplish,” Trump told reporters Wednesday shortly after his black and red helicopter, emblazoned “TRUMP” on the side, touched down in Portsmouth. He arrived not long after the White House released the president’s long-form birth certificate from Hawaii. He said he was honored “to have played such a big role in hopefully – hopefully – getting rid of this issue. Now, we have to look at it, we have to see, is it real.” Trump said he hoped the birth certificate “checks out beautifully,” but he used the opportunity before television cameras to again sharply criticize Obama on several fronts, including Libya policy and gasoline prices. He also raised questions anew about Obama’s educational record and how he got into college. But he again offered no proof of anything amiss. Trump’s blistering attacks on Obama, including raising widely debunked rumors that the president was born abroad, have piqued the interest of some Republican voters. He has seen his standing in some polls grow in the months since he first dangled a presidential candidacy before a GOP primary electorate looking for a leader to aggressively challenge the Democratic president. Many rank-and-file Republicans still dismiss Trump as a non-serious distraction. But as he easily grabs headlines, other potential candidates are playing a more cautious game, and most don’t seem eager to talk about him. They’ve been distancing themselves from the so-called “birther” claims in recent days, and most weren’t eager to weigh in Wednesday. Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor, sent a brief tweet that said: “Media: admit it, Trump forced the issue. Now, don’t let the WH distract you w/the birth crt from what Bernanke says today. Stay focused, eh?” That was a reference to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s news conference. And former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney said on Twitter: “What President Obama should really be releasing is a jobs plan.” Less than a year before Iowa and New Hampshire Republicans become the first to vote in the race, the GOP field is far from set. There’s no true front-runner and no single establishment candidate. That leaves ample room for attention-getting events by less orthodox politicians such as Trump and third-term Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota. Romney, who lost the nomination in 2008, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich all have taken initial steps toward full-fledged runs but none has emerged as the candidate to beat. Many Republicans expect Bachmann and former Sen. Rick Santorum to make their interest official. They also are waiting to hear from former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels. The 2008 vice presidential nominee, Palin, and the Iowa caucus winner, Mike Huckabee, have dropped hints they will not run, but Republican insiders say no one is sure. Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour became the latest Republican to opt against a presidential run this week. “This is shaping up to be a wacky year,” said Scott Reed, who managed Republican nominee Bob Dole’s 1996 campaign and had been advising Barbour. It’s the most wide-open GOP primary in four decades, he said, and the eventual nominee conceivably could jump in as late as September. “There is still room for someone to emerge as the conservative alternative to Romney,” Reed said. Most veteran Republicans don’t believe that person will be Trump, the thrice-married, much-caricatured developer who has donated heavily to Democrats in past years and switched his stands on key issues such as abortion. Karl Rove, the top political adviser to President George W. Bush, calls Trump a “joke candidate.” Jennifer Horn, a 2008 Republican congressional nominee from New Hampshire, said in an op-ed column that Trump has flip-flopped on major issues and is not a credible candidate. If Republicans allow him to “hijack the primary process then they deserve exactly what they get,” she wrote. Over the years, Trump has given thousands of dollars to Democratic candidates, including New York Sens. Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada. Trump talked of running for president as a third-party candidate in 2000, and he made a brief splash with a 1988 New Hampshire speech that some took as a preliminary Republican candidacy. In New Hampshire on Wednesday, Trump breezily dismissed his critics. “I think I’m quite conservative as a Republican,” he told reporters in Portsmouth. In at least two instances, he said, “I’m leading the polls.” Forcing Obama “to finally come out and issue a birth certificate can only help,” he said. Trump said he has given campaign money to “many Republicans, many Democrats. And I think there’s something nice about that,” because it promotes bipartisanship. As for switching his stand on issues, he said, “My views change. … I tell people, you have to remain flexible because the world changes.” He also turned the conversation to Obama. “Nobody even knows what’s going on in Libya,” Trump said. He said Obama claims to have little control over gasoline prices, but “he does if he gets on the phone or gets off his basketball court or whatever he is doing at the time.” After holding court before reporters, Trump traveled to several other stops, all within a nine-mile radius of the Portsmouth airport. He spent a few minutes shaking hands at a Portsmouth diner but spent little time in conversation. Passing by a table of older men, he waved and said, “Why aren’t you at work?” “We’re retired!” answered the group of former workers at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard. “Don’t touch Medicare, right?” Trump said, moving on without waiting for an answer. Joe Lovell, of Somersworth, said seeing Trump arrive by limo was a surprise in this state that values close contact with presidential hopefuls. Asked what he thought of Trump, he said, “Nice hair.”

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Gordon Brown: Global ‘Mini-Lateralism’ Will Get Us Nowhere

April 22, 2011

Two years ago the formal creation of the G20 helped prevent the world recession from becoming a world depression. World leaders agreed to a one trillion dollar underpinning of the world economy, and strengthened the World Bank, the IMF and the World Trade Organization. In its concluding statement, however, the G20 promised more: that it would work towards implementing new global standards and regulations across the world’s banking system and that it would be the architect of a global growth agreement designed to deliver rising prosperity and create jobs in the decades ahead. Two years on, what some now call mini-lateralism, seems to be the order of the day. The immediate crisis has passed and despite outstanding leadership in our international institutions and bold international initiatives by some national leaders, many governments have retreated into their national shells. We cannot agree on the proposed ‘global growth pact’, a world trade agreement is yet again stalled, risking the first failure of a planned trade agreement since 1948, and, even after a nuclear catastrophe in Japan and a period of violent volatility in oil prices, there is still insufficient momentum for a global climate change agreement. So what has happened? The need for cooperation cannot be in dispute. Indeed this year the world is facing an unremitting onslaught of new challenges – food shortages, commodity price rises, youth unemployment and social unrest ; and large imbalances even as inflation reappears. Some now talk not of a crisis but of crisis-ism, a state of ever recurring crises that cannot easily be resolved by nations acting autonomously. Our interdependent world means that our problems are no longer just problems we share in common but are global, interwoven between countries and only concerted action across continents can effectively tackle them. The IMF has already shown that we might have been in a position to raise world growth by an extra 3 per cent by 2015, and create anything between 25 and 50 million new jobs if the enhanced global cooperation that the G20 promised in 2009 had happened. But we need better global coordination not just to address the problems of today but the challenges of tomorrow, triggered by the next revolution ahead in global markets. Indeed, this generation finds itself in a unique place — at the vanguard of the biggest transformation of the world economy in history. In the last twenty years, two billion men and women have joined the ranks of industrial producers, trebling the size of the world’s industrial economy. In the next ten to fifteen years this revolution will be augmented by at least two billion people joining the ranks of the world’s middle-class, trebling its current numbers. So the recent shift in producer power will soon be matched by a coming shift in consumer power, and we will see and feel this transformation powering through our lives and shaping our national fortunes with an irresistible force. The world’s biggest market, for instance, will no longer be in America but in Asia and it will grow to around 40 percent of all consumer spending, twice the size of the American market, and substantially bigger than the German market (4 percent) and the British market (3 percent). So who will be the biggest beneficiaries of these changes? With the right opening up of trade, European and American brand names, with high value added, and technology driven, niche and custom-built products and services, could be providing us with engines of growth and employment as demand for these products and services rises in Asia (as well as in other areas with increasing consumer power, like Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia and parts of Africa). Yet without enhanced international cooperation the west will not be in the best position to take advantage of these changes. Indeed unless we enshrine market access in a global agreement we will lose out on some of the greatest economic opportunities for rising standards of living we have ever seen. And global coordination is necessary for other reasons, too. The world has been too ready to unlearn the lessons of the financial crisis and there is a danger that we are sowing the seeds of the next financial crash. Without agreement on global financial standards -and currently individual continents and even countries are going their own way- finance will be in a race to the bottom with the good financial centers at risk of being undercut by the bad and the bad by the worst. And of course, if present trends continue, if markets remain closed to certain countries or operate randomly and in an unfettered way, the world will become structurally more unequal — India, China, Indonesia, Brazil and Russia will see inequality grow and Africa will become more isolated. The economic discontents of the peoples of North Africa and the Middle East will not be met without international support. Enhanced cooperation is essential in helping to prevent embryonic problems in poorer parts of the world from escalating into crises that could threaten the security of and through mass migration risk the stability of all the peoples of the world. Without global flows of investment to empower entrepreneurship in Africa and to facilitate economic and educational development, the region will become the source of new migration, climate change and security crises that will threaten us all. Today, the responsibility to pick up the reins of global cooperation falls on all of us. We need to argue more strongly than ever for the employment benefits that will flow from a world growth plan. Civic organizations, especially churches and faith groups, often underestimate the resonance of their collective voice: their voice should be listened to as they demand action against poverty and youth unemployment. There should be a stronger partnership with business which, in a world of heightened risk, needs avoidable uncertainty removed not least the stable environment that comes from a clean banking system operating to global standards. Business benefits too when we act to end the volatility in energy prices, when we organize effectively to increase food production and reduce food prices and when we take active steps to raise employment levels. Enhanced global cooperation needs to be championed by a strengthened coalition of business, NGOs, international institutions and public leaders working together on global issues. That opportunity is being championed today by the vision of the World Economic Forum led by Professor Klaus Schwab, which is already part of the business outreach President Sarkozy has championed for the G20, following President Obamas lead in 2009. Today there is, indeed, too much mini-lateralism: we cannot succeed without enhanced cooperation and it’s time once again to raise our ambitions on what global co-operation can achieve. Gordon Brown is the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and author of Beyond the Crash; Overcoming the First Crisis of Globalisation. He is to be Chairman of the Global Policy Coordination Board of the World Economic Forum in an unpaid capacity.

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McDonald’s Expects Significant Increases In Food Prices

April 21, 2011

NEW YORK/LOS ANGELES (Phil Wahba and Lisa Baertlein) – McDonald’s Corp said higher costs for beef, bread and other items cut into its quarterly margins and that inflation for the year would be worse than expected. The inflation comments on Thursday sent shares of the world’s largest restaurant company down 2 percent, even though strong sales helped McDonald’s post a first-quarter profit that beat expectations. March sales at established restaurants also rose more than expected. “The key question now will be how they are going to raise prices to try to offset some of these food costs,” Edward Jones analyst Jack Russo said. McDonald’s said it now expects food costs to rise between 4 percent and 4.5 percent in the United States and Europe this year. In January, McDonald’s said it expected its food costs to be 2 percent to 2.5 percent higher this year in the United States and up between 3.5 percent and 4.5 percent in Europe. McDonald’s has been outperforming most other U.S. restaurant chains and taking market share from smaller rivals amid a slow U.S. economic recovery. After struggling during the recession, McDonald’s has outperformed its fast-food peers by updating its menu. The company pointed to its McCafe menu as a source of sales gains. “The bottom line is they’re still doing a great job of growing revenue,” said Peter Jankovskis, co-chief investment officer at Oakbrook Investments in Lisle, Illinois. The firm owns McDonald’s shares. Analysts remain concerned about high gas prices that could prompt fast-food restaurant patrons to cut back. But Jankovskis said McDonald’s was better equipped than others to cope with those prices. The company has more locations than its rivals, so customers do not have to travel far to get to one. “The big test will come in the summer months with gasoline remaining in the neighborhood of $4.00 (a gallon) — that’s when the strength of McDonald’s will come through,” he said. McDonald’s results come a day after rival Yum Brands Inc reported better-than-expected sales due to strength in China. Chipotle Mexican Grill, which has nearly all of its 1,100 restaurants in the United States, saw higher food costs eat into margins. Total revenue at the Golden Arches during the first quarter that ended March 31, rose 9 percent to $6.1 billion, with sales in Europe leading the way. March sales at restaurants open at least 13 months were up 3 percent in the United States, up 4.9 percent in Europe and gained 0.5 percent in McDonald’s Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa unit. Globally they rose 3.6 percent. Analysts, on average, were looking for same-restaurant sales to rise almost 2 percent in the United States, more than 3 percent in Europe and 2 percent in APMEA. Sales in Asia may have been pinched by the disasters in Japan. The United States contributes just over one-third of McDonald’s overall revenue, compared with 40 percent for Europe — its largest market for sales and one where it has more middle-class appeal. First-quarter net income rose 10.9 percent to $1.21 billion, or $1.15 per share, from $1.09 billion, or $1 per share, a year earlier. That beat Wall Street expectations of a profit of $1.14 per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. But operating margin fell to 17.7 percent from 18.2 percent as costs for food and paper rose. Food and paper costs were 33.6 percent of sales in the quarter, compared with 32.9 percent a year earlier. McDonald’s shares fell 1.9 percent, or $1.56, TO $76.84 in morning New York Stock Exchange trading. (Reporting by Phil Wahba and Lisa Baertlein; Editing by Maureen Bavdek) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Video: Morales Says Intel Has `Breakthrough’ Tablet Technology

April 20, 2011

April 20 (Bloomberg) — Christian Morales, head of Europe, Middle East and Africa at Intel Corp., discusses the company’s first-quarter profit and development of technology for tablet devices. He talks with Linzie Janis on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.”

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Josh Burstein: Shoes and a Slice of MyPi for Several Inner-City Scholars

April 18, 2011

I grew up as the son of an academic, hopping from campus to campus while my father pursued tenure. It was a charmed gypsy life, as I had the pick of the litter of cute undergraduate babysitters. The thought never crossed my mind that I would not go to college. For many inner-city high schoolers, further education is by no means a given. The desire may be there, but an uncomfortable reality tends to get in the way. I live in California, a state heralded for its top-notch public universities, but 47th in state spending per public school student. So while the world looks to the glorious left coast as a dynamic power of industry and culture, its local development of young minds is rather lacking. I don’t know precisely how many of those inner-city kids can see beyond the horizon of a high school diploma, but whatever the number is, it’s clearly not what the promise of America is supposed to mean. That’s why this year my colleague Zach Fishbain and I founded MyPi, the Millennial Youth Professionals Initiative. We’re always hustling after something — we both work in business development to pay the bills. Mentoring an underprivileged 14-year-old, Zach was eager to find a fun activity and leveraged our business contacts at Electronic Arts to take “Andy” through the halls where his favorite video games are made. He met with artists, developers and programmers. Zach couldn’t introduce young Andy to Blake Griffin, but he did introduce him to the men and women that made NBA JAM, the idea being that with a lot of hard work, Andy could do the same some day. At one point during the experience, Andy was very quiet. Pensive. When asked if everything was okay, his soft-spoken response was: “Man, I’m just thinking how I have to make it to college.” Zach raved about the experience the next day, and we started thinking about how we could reach out to inner-city youth and repeat the process on a larger scale — show them firsthand that anything was possible if they stayed in school. So we formed a 501(c)3, leaning on professionals who could guide two fledgling entrepreneurs from a good intention to a realizable venture. Recently, MyPi had its pilot trip, bringing eight kids from south central Los Angeles to TOMS Shoes . We wanted to inspire an entrepreneurial spirit in these middle and high schoolers, and TOMS’ model of conscious capitalism, a “One for One,” was the perfect catalyst. If you don’t know their tale, for each pair of shoes sold, TOMS donates a pair to a child in need — and the shoes are really cool. As the kids arrived, they were mostly quiet. They stuck close to their mentors and chaperones (we envisioned this trip to be a shared experience). Much love to Jake Strom, our contact at TOMS, who conveyed his enthusiasm as he told the stone-faced young crowd the company’s history. Then we toured the facilities. We impressed upon these young minds that work could be fun, not just something that old people drudged through between breakfast and dinner. When the tour ended, they were led into a room filled with shoe boxes — one fresh pair of white kicks for each student. It was a “Style your Sole” party, and as they started to paint, pen and tag their own custom canvas, we brought additional employees from TOMS to talk about their work and how they got there. This was an opportunity for the kids to express themselves outside of the classroom, an open place to get creative and show off their interests. Some young artists showed love for their city, some made stylish cleats for their sport of choice. However poker-faced they were during the tour, they were chatterboxes talking about TOMS the whole way home. Many slapped the TOMS motto on their shoes, along with their names, hoping to start a conversation and tell the story of barefoot children in Africa that had it even harder than they did. Skills have value in the workplace: that was the main message. My hope is that each student understood that he or she has options and that college was the logical next step. As co-founders of a fledgling NGO, Zach and I learned so much from our first event. As we navigate this new world — establishing a board, attracting new companies, constructing an engaging curriculum and partnering with new mentorship programs to fuel our events — our narrative is continuously shaped by all of those involved. And we love the art of improvisation. In a perfect world, teenagers like the initial eight students we brought to TOMS will find internships at the companies we introduce them to, and some day, perhaps, lead new groups of MyPi kids through the halls of a forward-looking company, of which there are many. I’m interested in education reform, and a true believer in the axiom that ingenuity is to be found in all strata of society. So as MyPi explores ways to incubate an entrepreneurial spirit, I open it up to debate how to explore and enlarge this vision. For more content from our trip to TOMS, visit MyPi.org , follow us @mypidotorg and like us .

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Gemma Godfrey: Libya — Oil, Water, Gold Are the Real Issues

April 15, 2011

The oil price has skyrocketed over the past few months. The finger has been pointed at the troubles in Libya and claims of supply disruptions have dominated the press. However, are these claims grounded in fact or are we watching yet another sentiment driven bubble? What are the issues we should be aware of and how should we best invest in the face of such turmoil? Expectations are often more damaging than reality Libya’s contribution to global oil production is in stark contrast to the column inches it has been awarded in the press. As quoted by the National Journal, the country produces around 2% of the world’s oil. OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) has claimed that they have managed to “accommodate most of the shortfall” and instead attribute the rise in the oil price to fears of a shortage rather than any genuine supply issues . Oil reached a 2.5 year high last Friday . This is against a flattish demand side dynamic. Paris-based International Energy Agency and the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration left fuel demand growth for this year unchanged and OPEC only raised their forecast by a relatively small amount ( to 87.9m b/d from 87.8m b/d ) . EU Sanction: A further boost for the oil bulls On Tuesday, the EU extended sanctions against Libya to include energy companies, freezing assets in an attempt to force leader Muammar Gaddafi to relinquish power. Phrased another way, by the German Foreign Minister, this is a ” de facto embargo on oil and gas ” . Approximately 85% of exports are for delivery to Europe and importers will now have the task of finding potentially more distant and/or expensive alternative sources. The pent-up downside risk Nevertheless, many are not paying attention to the downside risk to the oil price as we move forward. Libya has Africa’s largest proven oil reserves but 75% of the country’s petrol needs are met with imports because of limited refinery capacity . Any improvement on this front, if a regime change is eventually secured, could therefore significantly reduce imports and boost global supplies. Is water the next oil? In addition to oil reserves, one asset belonging to the Libyan government which is rarely mentioned is an ability to bring water to the desert. With the largest and most expensive irrigation project in history, the $33bn GMMR (Great Man-Made River) project, Libya is able to provide 70% of the population with water for drinking and irrigation . The United Nations estimates that by 2050 more than two billion people in 48 countries will lack sufficient water , making this an enviable asset indeed . How can the US pay for the Libya intervention? It is interesting to note, with all the claims being made that the intervention is oil motivated that, Libya has another form of ‘liquidity’. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the country’s central bank has nearly 144 tonnes of gold in its vaults … How to best invest: Retain context The tide is starting to turn, Goldman Sachs has called the top for commodities in the near-term and oil fell by 4.5% on Monday and Tuesday alone (Source Bloomberg) . With this amount of volatility, short term noise can sometimes overwhelm. For a long term investor, looking for steady and stable returns, an ability to cut through the sentiment (whilst acknowledging it’s importance in driving returns in the shorter term) is valuable. Often many factors are at play and it will ‘pay dividends’ to be well-informed as they become wider known and priced in by the markets. Knowledge may be king but preparation will come up trumps .

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Video: Auerbach Says Nigerian Markets `Stable,’ Stocks `Cheap’

April 12, 2011

April 12 (Bloomberg) — Jonathan Auerbach, managing director of Auerbach Grayson & Co., talks about investing in Africa and opportunities in Nigerian stocks. Auerbach speaks with Pimm Fox on Bloomberg Television’s “Taking Stock.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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PIC to invest USD6.8b in Africa

April 11, 2011

PIC to invest USD6.8b in Africa

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Don Tapscott: The World’s Unemployed Youth: Revolution in the Air?

April 6, 2011

A common thread to the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt and protests elsewhere in the Middle East and north Africa is the soul-crushing high rate of youth unemployment. Twenty-four percent of young people in the region cannot find jobs. To be sure, protesters were also agitating for democracy, wanting the full rights of citizenship and not to be treated as subjects. But nonexistent employment opportunities were the powerful catalyst. Youth unemployment is similarly dire in other parts of the world. In the UK, young people aged 16 to 24 account for about 40% of all unemployed, which means almost 1 million young adults are jobless. In Spain more than 40% of young people are unemployed. In France the rate is more than 20%, and in the US it’s 21%. In country after country, many young people have given up looking for work. A recent survey in the UK revealed that more than half of the 18- to 25-year-olds questioned said they were thinking of emigrating because of the lack of job prospects. Unemployed young people comprised a large portion of the crowd that marched in London on March 26 to protest against the economic policies of the government. Fortunately, the protest was largely peaceful. But youth unemployment will continue to stay high, and the UK government’s austerity measures are not going to help. We’re deluding ourselves if we believe the young will simply continue to be stoical and deferential to authority. Today’s society is failing to deliver on its promise to young people. We said that if they worked hard, stayed out of trouble, and attended school, they would have a prosperous and fulfilling life. It turns out we were inaccurate, if not dishonest. And then we rub salt in the wound by saying we’re in a “jobless recovery” — an oxymoron to tens of millions of young people who are having their hopes dashed. Widespread youth unemployment is one facet of a deeper failure. The society we are passing to today’s young people is seriously damaged. Most of the institutions that have served us well for decades — even centuries — seem frozen and unable to move forward. The global economy, our financial services industry, governments, health care, the media and our institutions for solving global problems like the UN are all struggling. I’m convinced that the industrial age and its institutions are finally running out of gas. It is young people who are bearing the brunt of our failures. Full of zeal and relatively free of responsibilities, youth are traditionally the generation most inclined to question the status quo and authority. Fifty years ago, baby-boomers had access to information through the new marvel of television, and as they became university-age and delayed having families, many had time to challenge government policies and social norms. Youth radicalization swept the world, culminating in explosive protests, violence and government crackdowns across Europe, Asia and North America. In Paris in May 1968, protests that began as student sit-ins challenging the Charles de Gaulle government and the capitalist system culminated in a two-week general strike involving more than 11 million workers. Youth played a key role in the so-called Prague Spring in Czechoslovakia that same year. In West Germany, the student movement gained momentum in the late 60s. In the US, youth radicalization began with the civil rights movement and extended into movements for women’s rights and other issues, and culminated in the Vietnam war protests. Young people today have a demographic clout similar to that of their once-rebellious parents. In North America, the baby boom echo is larger than the boom itself. In South America the demographic bulge is huge and even bigger in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. A majority of people in the world are under the age of 30 and a whopping 27% under the age of 15. The 60s baby boomer radicalization was based on youthful hope and ideology. Protesters championed the opposition to war, a celebration of youth culture, and the possibilities for a new kind of social order. Today’s simmering youth radicalization is much different. It is rooted not only in unemployment, but personal broken hopes, mistreatment, and injustice. Young people are alienated; witness the dropping young voter turnout for elections. They are turning their backs on the system. Most worryingly, today’s youth have at their fingertips the internet, the most powerful tool ever for finding out what’s going on, informing others and organizing collective responses. Internet-based digital tools such as Twitter, Facebook and YouTube were instrumental to the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions. We need to make the creation of new jobs a top priority. We need to reinvent our institutions, everything from the financial industry to our models of education and science to kick-start a new global economy. We need to engage today’s young people, not jack up tuition fees and cut back on retraining. We need to nurture their drive, passion and expertise. We need to help them take advantage of new web-based tools and become involved in making the world more prosperous, just and sustainable. If we don’t take such measures, we run the risk of a generational conflict that could make the radicalization of youth in Europe and North America in the 1960s pale in comparison. A shorter version of this was originally posted by The Guardian.

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China: Google-Linked Firms Broke Tax Rules

March 31, 2011

By Chris Buckley BEIJING | Thu Mar 31, 2011 6:29am EDT (Reuters) – Chinese authorities found three companies linked to Google Inc broke tax rules and are investigating possible tax avoidance, a Chinese state-run newspaper said on Thursday, raising the risk of fresh pressure on the Internet search giant. Google, the world’s largest Internet search company, confirmed the three companies were units, but denied the tax violations alleged in the Chinese-language Economic Daily. “We believe we are, and always have been, in full compliance with Chinese tax law,” Google said in a statement responding to Reuters’ questions. Even if the report is unfounded or embellished, it could bring fresh headaches in China for Google, which has gone through difficult times there since early last year when it quarreled with the one-party government over Internet censorship and hacking attacks. China generates a small percentage of Google’s revenues, but is the world’s largest Internet market with more than 450 million users. The country’s search market, dominated by homegrown Baidu Inc, was worth 11 billion yuan ($1.7 billion) in 2010 and is likely to grow by about 50 percent each year for the next four years, according to iResearch. The Economic Daily said that the three companies investigated and punished were “Google enterprises in China”. “The taxation authorities have already investigated and punished the three companies according to the law,” said the report on its front page. The companies were accused of presenting false and unjustified claims to the total value of 40 million yuan ($6 million), said the report. It did not say when the claimed violations are alleged to have happened. “It is understood by this reporter that the taxation authorities are further investigating Google businesses in China on suspicion of tax avoidance,” said the brief story, which was also later reported by China’s official Xinhua news agency. A Google spokesperson said the three accused companies — Google Information Technology (China) Co, Ltd; Google Advertising (Shanghai) Co, Ltd, and Google Information Technology (Shanghai) Co, Ltd — were its sub-units. Their activities span research and development, advertising and customer support. “Most foreign companies in China, especially high-profile companies with a global reputation at stake, are pretty careful to make sure they are in full compliance with the relevant tax laws,” said Mark Natkin, managing director of Marbridge Consulting, a Beijing-based company that advises investors about China’s Internet and telecommunications sectors. China’s Foreign Ministry would not comment directly about the report. “Generally speaking, any companies operating abroad should obey the laws and regulations of the host country,” said the ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu. RUN-INS CONTINUE The report appeared after Google again clashed with the Chinese government over Internet censorship. Earlier this month, Google said any difficulty that users in China may have faced opening its email service were likely the result of government blocks. China’s ruling Communist Party has intensified censorship in recent months, fearing that calls for protests inspired by anti-authoritarian uprisings across the Middle East and north Africa could gather momentum. Google’s serious run-ins with the Chinese government began in January 2010, when the company said it was no longer willing to censor search results in the country. Previously, the company included a disclaimer on its China service that searches may not be complete because of local laws. Searches for terms deemed sensitive by Chinese censors are routinely blocked. Chinese search engines such as that offered by Baidu already voluntarily filter searches. Google also said it had uncovered sophisticated China-based attacks on human rights activists using its Gmail service around the world. The censorship and hacking dispute became a diplomatic sore point in Sino-U.S. relations. After months of quiet wrangling with Beijing, Google altered its main Chinese-language search page so that inquiries are redirected to a site in Hong Kong. That means Google searches from within China are still censored by the government’s “Great Wall” of Internet filters, but the company no longer plays a direct role in that censorship. (Additional reporting by Sally Huang, Sabrina Mao and Ben Blanchard in BEIJING and Melanie Lee in SHANGHAI; Editing by Lincoln Feast) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Raymond J. Learsy: Obama Echoes The American Petroleum Institute Mantra

March 31, 2011

Yes, we need to significantly diminish our consumption of oil imported or otherwise for reasons of global warming, self reliance, security and economic rationality. Important points all touched upon in the president’s energy address, together with a vision to steer the economy away from fossil fuels to alternatives ranging from biomass, electric cars and safe nuclear power. Well and good, combined with the recognition this will all take time. 2025 was set as the goal toward reducing the nation’s imports of oil by one third from the 11 million barrels a day at the beginning of the Obama presidency. However, we are living in the here and now, dealing with $105 barrel oil for West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI), the benchmark grade traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. At $105/bbl the price is near three times the $33/bbl in February 2009, one month into the Obama presidency. Explaining this enormous differential is where President Obama went seriously off track repeating the rote oil patch argumentation that it is all about supply and demand, as though with oil inventories touching all time highs and filled to overflowing a differential of more than $70/bbl between February 2008 and March 2011 is a rational divergence that can be explained citing the oil industry drivel of ‘it’s the market.’ Yes, as President Obama explained when more oil is consumed the price goes up. But not to this extent and not to the extent of the explosion in oil prices over the past ten years whereby it has increased by a factor of more than seven. Clearly something else is afoot. What is afoot is the manipulation of supply and prices by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). When the president says oil can not be pumped fast enough to keep up with demand and that is why so many American families are suffering when paying for high gas prices, no mention is made that the OPEC cartel producers are willfully holding back some 6 million barrels of production a day, of which Saudi Arabia alone has shut in 4.5 million barrels. Not enough oil to meet demand? Hardly. Certainly not if your interest is curtailing needed supply, in order to hype prices. The cartel’s function is to assure that the market has no bearing to supply and demand by artificially creating a shortage of available crude. One need only sight yesterday’s Financial Times’ front page headline which speaks volumes, ” Opec Set For Export Revenue of $1000 bn .” That the President of the United States doesn’t know better is sad indeed. The perverseness of the OPEC cartel’s manipulated oil market is accentuated by the lax oversight of our regulatory agencies, such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, who have done little or less to rein in the rampant speculation by the Hedge Funds, the Wall Street Bank Holding Companies such as J.P. Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs,and for all we know by the oil producers themselves. Remember in determining the price of oil through the exchanges the market is not dealing with real (wet) barrels of oil, but rather with virtual barrels. (please see ” The Trade That Brought Us $100 Barrel Oil Teaches Us To Be Afraid, Very Afraid “) What is to keep the oil producers, or OPEC members themselves for that matter, given the enormous cash reserves held in their sovereign wealth funds, from manipulatively trading oil on the exchanges in order to push prices ever higher. As has been observed by Sen. Levin (D-Mich) when it comes to oil trading, “Right now there is no U.S. cop on the beat overseeing energy trades on over-the-counter, electronic exchanges or foreign exchanges” (please see ” The Enron Loophole Helps OPEC Serve Up a Hefty Helping of Oil Price Baloney “). That was nearly five years ago and nothing has substantively changed since. After making reference to the significant potential of domestic shale gas reserves the president then indulges us with one of the oil industry’s’ favorite rationalizations for extortionately high prices now, and higher prices to come. He regales us with one of the oil patch’s favorite axioms, the ‘peak oil’ anthem — we are running out of oil, higher prices are needed to find more oil. He thereby inadvertently is giving the likes of the American Petroleum Institute and their allies in the oil game the cover they need to lull us into being acquiescent marks whose pockets are being fleeced. This while a hapless government and Department of Energy seems unaware of the game that is being played. The president’s lament is an embarrassment in the face of the recent huge new oil discoveries offshore Brazil and West Africa and the new drilling techniques permitting potential cost effective access to the vast shale oil reserves in the United States such as the Bakken Formation extending from North Dakota, parts of South Dakota, and Montana which combined with the Green River Basin Formation has the potential of shale oil reserves of 1.5 trillion barrels — more than five times the ‘stated’ reserves of Saudi Arabia. Shale oil has already begun to flow from the Bakken field in North Dakota. And that is only the beginning. In the meanwhile the transfer of billions upon billions from American and world consumers to oil interests both domestic and foreign continues on and will continue in spite of the programs enunciated by the president if we heedlessly permit OPEC to continue controlling supply and continue to let the speculators and manipulators to turn the commodity exchanges into Frankenstein casinos.

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Video: Croft Says Libya Oil Exports May Be Halted for One Year

March 30, 2011

March 30 (Bloomberg) — Helima Croft, an analyst at Barclays Capital, talks about the conflict in Libya and the outlook for oil exports from the country. Croft also discusses unrest elsewhere in the Middle East and Africa and the potential impact on oil markets. She speaks with Lisa Murphy on Bloomberg Television’s “Fast Forward.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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The Million-Dollar Weapon

March 25, 2011

By Sharon Weinberger Center for Public Integrity In the opening days of the assault on Libya, the United States and the United Kingdom launched a barrage of at least 161 Tomahawk cruise missiles to flatten Moammar Gadhafi’s air defenses and pave the way for coalition aircraft. In fiscal terms, at a time when Congress is fighting over every dollar, the cruise missile show of military might was an expenditure of nearly a quarter of a billion dollars. Each missile cost $1.41 million, close to three times the cost listed on the Navy’s website. Raytheon Corp. is the manufacturer of the Tomahawk Block IV, a low-flying missile that travels at 550 miles per hour. During a decade of war in Afghanistan, Iraq, and now Libya, the Pentagon has increasingly relied on the Tomahawk. A year ago, Raytheon boasted of its 2,000th Block IV delivery to the Navy. The 20-foot missile is particularly attractive for the military in current conflicts because it can be launched from submarines and surface ships at a safe distance and can be used to take out air-defense systems that could pose a threat to manned aircraft. William Hartung, director of the Arms and Security Initiative at the New America Foundation and author of the book Prophets of War , said the use of the Tomahawk helps explain, in part, the high cost of the operations in Libya. “The no-fly zones in Iraq averaged about $1 billion or so per year, while the Libyan operation cost $100 million or more on the first day, largely due to the use of cruise missiles,” Hartung said. “I would stop short of calling it a boondoggle, as it does seem to be getting the job done, just at a very high cost,” Hartung told the Center for Public Integrity. Some members of Congress are nervous about yet another war, cost being one of their complaints. “It is hard to imagine that Congress, during the current contentious debate over deficits and budget cutting, would agree to plunge America into still another war,” said Rep. Dennis Kucinich, an Ohio Democrat, in a statement. “Our nation simply cannot afford another war, economically, diplomatically or spiritually.” Tomahawks have high accuracy rate The Tomahawk was first used operationally in the 1991 Gulf War, when 288 cruise missiles were fired at Kuwait and Iraq to destroy Iraqi forces. The Navy claimed the missiles, which were used to target everything from air defense sites to Saddam’s presidential palace, had an 85 percent accuracy rate. The low-flying cruise missile was used again, in 1998, against Serb forces, and over 325 Tomahawks were launched against Iraq that same year in Operation Desert Fox. During the Iraq war in 2003, the number of Tomahawks used more than doubled compared to the first Gulf War, with over 725 of the cruise missiles launched at Iraq, according to Richard Myers , then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The Tomahawk, which is guided to its target by GPS, has tended to work well for fixed sites, like air defense systems, but perhaps less well for so-called fleeing targets, which depends on precise and up-to-date intelligence. In August 1998, President Bill Clinton ordered U.S. Navy vessels in the Arabian Sea to strike suspected Al Qaeda sites in Sudan and Afghanistan in retaliation for the Africa embassy bombings. “Though most of them hit their intended targets, neither Bin Ladin nor any other terrorist leader was killed,” the 9/11 Commission wrote in its final report. “[Former National Security Advisor Sandy] Berger told us that an after-action review by [CIA] Director [George] Tenet concluded that the strikes had killed 20-30 people in the camps but probably missed Bin Ladin by a few hours.” In some cases, it’s hard to judge the Tomahawk’s record: Amnesty International claims 41 civilians were killed by a U.S. Tomahawk strike against Yemen in 2009, but neither U.S. nor Yemeni officials ever confirmed the attack, which was reportedly directed against Al Qaeda sites. In Libya, the government claimed the recent Tomahawk strikes killed 48 civilians , though those reports have not been confirmed. Missile cost nearly tripled since 1999 From the standpoint of helping set up the no-fly zone, the Tomahawk’s use has been a success, according to U.S. officials. The most current version of the Tomahawk has some noted improvements, most significantly its ability to be reprogrammed in flight via two-way satellite communication. It that sense, the Tomahawk is roughly similar to an unmanned drone aircraft, except that it doesn’t ever come back. It’s not clear, however, how often its ability to be reprogrammed is actually used. “In the real world, you’re just not going to have the sort of precise intelligence that would tell you, after you launch a Tomahawk and it’s halfway there, that now there’s a bus full of widows and orphans” and it needs to be diverted, said John Pike, the director of GlobalSecurity.org. “That just doesn’t happen.” The cost of the Tomahawk has long been an issue. The Navy, according to a public fact sheet on its website, places the price tag of a Block IV missile at $569,000, but that’s in fiscal year 1999 dollars. However, Rob Koon, a spokesman for the Navy, on Wednesday placed the current price tag at $1.41 million. A spokesman for Raytheon, citing current operational use of the Tomahawk, directed all questions about the Tomahawk to the Navy. Whether the increasing use of the Tomahawk will translate to more orders is unclear. The Navy declines to discuss inventory numbers, citing operational security, but in February 2010, Raytheon announced that it had delivered its 2,000th Tomahawk Block IV missile to the Navy. The company’s trademarked motto is “Customer Success is Our Mission.” With $25 billion in revenues and $1.84 billion in profits companywide in 2010, Raytheon is one of the five largest defense contractors and has benefited from the military’s increasing reliance on cruise missiles. Missile sales have also been paralleled by its lobbying effort. Raytheon, now the world’s biggest producer of guided-missiles, spent just shy of $7 million on congressional lobbying in 2010, compared to $2.32 million a decade earlier, according to the Center for Responsive Politics’ OpenSecrets.org. Raytheon has liberally sprinkled campaign contributions across Congress, including more than $2.1 million in 2009-2010. The contributions were balanced between parties, with 53 percent going to Democrats and 46 percent to Republican candidates, according to OpenSecrets. Even in an era of staggering weapons costs, the price tag for a Tomahawk stands out because it’s only used once. So, is the Tomahawk worth well over $1 million a shot? “They are expensive rounds, but they give you the potential to attack heavily defended targets up front,” said Barry Watts, a senior fellow at the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. “How do you value not putting a bunch of pilots in harm’s way?”

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Mark W. Kline, M.D.: Fighting Sickle Cell Disease in Angola: Building Partnerships to Match the Challenge

March 22, 2011

Angola has one of the world’s highest rates of sickle cell disease, but lacked a formal, organized effort to fight it — until now. A history-making agreement was signed today in the capital of Luanda, initiating the West African nation’s first program to address a disease that likely affects some 6,000 babies born in Angola each year. Even though a fifth of Angola’s roughly 17 million people have the sickle cell trait, information on the number of children affected is sketchy, as only a fraction are diagnosed. Serious complications of the disease — including bacterial infections and stroke — mean that only about half of Angola’s affected children reach age 2. The disease is a major contributor to Angola’s child mortality rate, among the world’s highest. A staggering one in four Angolan children will die before they reach their fifth birthday. The good news is that we now have the tools to change this bleak outlook for African children born with sickle cell disease — in exactly the same way we now expect American children with the disease to live long and full lives. The key is early diagnosis and treatment. That’s the focus of a new public-private partnership of the Republic of Angola, the Baylor International Pediatrics AIDS Initiative (BIPAI) — a joint program of Baylor College of Medicine and Texas Children’s Hospital — and Chevron. Based on experience in the United States — which accounts for less than one percent of the estimated 300,000 to 500,000 global cases of sickle cell disease each year and where newborn screening is universal — the program’s pilot will begin with newborn screening and subsequent treatment at two large maternity hospitals in Luanda. The project, designed by leading global sickle cell disease expert Dr. Russell Ware in close coordination with BIPAI and medical experts in Angola, is comprehensive. Following the pilot, the goal will be to expand subsequent phases to Angola’s 18 provinces, simultaneously building Angola’s capacity to address the disease through public health policies, health training and the dissemination of clinical research. Why is Angola’s need so acute? Although rich in natural resources such as diamonds and oil – Angola is the second-largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa and the 7th largest supplier to the U.S. — Angola is only eight years removed from a 27-year civil war that devastated its infrastructure, including its healthcare system, and severely impacted its socio-economic development. Why this particular partnership? To help its children, the Angolan government reached out to Chevron. Not only has Chevron operated in Angola for more than 50 years, it also has been a driver of the successful Angola Partnership Initiative, a multipartner, multiyear effort to rebuild Angola’s agricultural sector and promote small business [outside the oil industry]. Chevron, in turn, reached out to experts — in this disease, in pediatric medicine and, as in the case of Baylor College of Medicine and Texas Children’s Hospital, to organizations with a proven track record establishing medical capacity building programs. To make headway against such a disease, especially in a time of limited resources, the engagement of corporate partners is critical. Success depends on building smart partnerships — that include the core strengths of leading global companies — that match the size of the challenge. But why do Angola’s health issues concern business? Only with a healthy local workforce and a healthy local economy can a business, global or local, operate successfully over the long term. It’s in the interests of business to help address unmet basic human needs — health, education and economic development — that pose risks to any community. Chevron has learned that success depends on committed partners, with unique and complementary resources, who collaborate — the same ingredients at work in other partnerships Chevron engages in around the globe. Partners with strategically aligned strengths are even more effective vehicles for bringing focused action to diseases such HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. As with its other partnerships, Chevron’s $4 million investment in this new alliance comes with a hands-on commitment to achieve lasting results: the involvement of its employees and business partners. The agreement signed today is only the beginning of giving more of Angola’s children a greater chance at life .. and moving Angola one step closer to harnessing its vast national potential. We all have a stake in helping write history like that.

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Christine M. Riordan: It’s a Matter of Mindset: Ten Principles for Unleashing Critical Thinking

March 21, 2011

“To raise new questions, new possibilities, to regard old problems from a new angle, requires creative imagination and marks real advance in science.” — Albert Einstein Recently a product manager at a leading financial services company organized a team meeting to talk about a product launched over two years ago, whose sales fell significantly short of initial projections. Comments about the shortfall from the product team members in the meeting ranged from saying the initial sales projections were set too high (even though the product team had been involved in setting those goals and projections), the market for this product just wasn’t there, we have done everything we can to sell the product, to why aren’t there higher goals for other products that the organization carries, and we simply can’t meet the goals set. Other company staff attending the meeting and who weren’t part of the product team saw a complete lack of critical thinking on the part of the product team on how to increase sales or even frame the problem. The product team offered no data that indicated the market had vanished for the product or that the initial sales forecasts were inaccurate. Worse, they summarily dismissed suggestions for improvement by others. Rather than approaching the failure to meet sales goals as a “challenge” to solve, the product team resigned itself to sub-par sales because of alleged factors beyond its control and hoped the rest of the organization would carry the load. They refused to think differently about the problem, their approach to sales, and changes they needed to make immediately to try to bolster sales. In short, the product team did not have a critical thinking mindset for solving a significant problem. It Requires Skill And Mindset In 2011, the business world is changing at an astonishing and complex pace. Companies need critical thinking skills to not only thrive but also survive in this environment. High performance firms require people that capture opportunities, make sound decisions, create new revenue streams, expand their customer base, and create strength for the future. While much has been written about how to develop employees’ skills around critical thinking that include diagnosing and defining problems, gathering data, testing assumptions, infusing creativity, and generating solutions – the real key to success is to have a critical thinking mindset or attitude as a foundation. It’s simply not enough to have the critical thinking skills. A critical thinking mindset is required – it is a way of doing business, an attitude, a behavior, an approach, an inclination, a disposition, a confidence, a frame of mind, the drive, or motivation to solving big problems. Individuals with a critical thinking mindset believe they can solve any problem and no challenge is too great. They approach problems with the attitude of optimism, persistence, confidence, and resolution to improve the situation. This is in sharp contrast to a defeatist attitude, which accepts status quo or failure as a natural consequence of the situation or of others and believes that not much can be done to improve the situation. Bill Gates is the epitome of a leader with a critical thinking mindset both in the workplace and in solving the world’s big challenges. In 2005, Gates said , “I’ve always been an optimist and I suppose that is rooted in my belief that the power of creativity and intelligence can make the world a better place. For as long as I can remember, I’ve loved learning new things and solving problems. I believe that progress on even the world’s toughest problems is possible — and it’s happening every day. We’re seeing new drugs for deadly diseases, new diagnostic tools, and new attention paid to the health problems in the developing world. I’m excited by the possibilities I see for medicine, for education and, of course, for technology. And I believe that through our natural inventiveness, creativity, and willingness to solve tough problems, we’re going to make some amazing achievements in all these areas in my lifetime.” Ten Principles Underlying a Critical Thinking Mindset There are at the very least ten fundamental principles underlying a critical thinking mindset. 1. View problems as an exciting challenge. The willingness to solve tough problems is at the very core of a critical thinking mindset. People with a critical thinking mindset respond to new demands and challenges by maintaining a constructive, positive outlook about change. New challenges and problems excite them. In fact, they thrive on tackling problems. When presented with organizational change, they see an opportunity not a threat. Seemingly unsolvable problems thrill them, and they find the time and energy to solve the big issues of the day. Author, inventor, and entrepreneur Jock Brandis is such a person. On a 2001 trip to Mali, West Africa to fix a water treatment plant, Brandis noticed women shelling peanuts by hand – a very slow process. Before he left, he promised to send them back a peanut sheller but found upon returning to the U.S. that no such thing existed. So he invented one, now called the Universal Peanut Sheller. One sheller can serve 5,600 people or 731 homes. Brandis is now a part of the non-profit group, the Full Belly Project, exploring other technologies to help improve living conditions in some of the most poverty-stricken areas of the world. As quoted in an interview, Brandis said, “there are many problems that can be solved with an oil drum and a few spare parts.” 2. Act courageously and take risks . Fear of risk or failure inhibits a critical thinking mindset. Additionally, many people fear pointing out new ways of doing things or flaws in current methods for fear of retribution or being thought of as someone who “rocks the boat” rather than a “team player.” Nevertheless, it’s imperative to gauge when to speak up, suggest creative new ideas, or take on a risk. LivingSocial is a company formed in 2007, offering daily deals at restaurants, and other enterprises, using social media to tap into local business advertising. During an interview (2011), CEO Tim O’Shaughnessy stated that part of the company’s culture is to take risks. “One of the things I like to say around the office is, if you’re not making at least one decision a month where you are genuinely nervous about it, you’re probably not trying hard enough,” he says. Asked for an example, O’Shaughnessy says, “We actually started to go and advertise, and promote our service, in markets that we weren’t ‘live’ in.” The gamble paid off — LivingSocial quickly added markets and signed up more members. And the company’s fast growth attracted more venture capital, to help level out its balance sheet. “We took our [cash] burn rate from about a 12-month time frame to about a month-and-a-half time frame — in the span of about a week,” O’Shaughnessy says. These courageous and risk taking tactics worked well for the young company that now employs hundreds of people and is in more than 100 cities. Amazon also just invested a cool $175 million in the company in December 2010. 3. Don’t use excuses. How much easier is it for people to use excuses for lack of success or results and blame factors such as market, inadequate resources, organizational barriers, or other people rather than working to figure out ways to solve problems? Companies and people embracing a critical thinking mindset learn from failure and mistakes, with the ability to rebound from setbacks and/or changes. And when things do not go well, they work to make them better. Case in point: many financial investment firms find that they are transforming themselves through extensive changes due to failures. Late in 2010, Marsico Capital Management, LLC Denver restructured $2.7 billion in debt as they now fight for their company survival. In November 2010, assets were 54% of the high value base – losses had been significant over the last year or so. Currently analysts from S&P and Moody’s remain skeptical about the survival of Marsico Capital. Marsico company executives aren’t providing excuses, but solutions and a concrete game plan. With a steadfast commitment to maintaining a strong investment process and commitment to clients, they work to move forward and build back their asset base. While problems at Marsico mirror those of other boutique equity firms, the executives at Marsico have a strong reputation for their creativity and critical thinking mindset and some analysts believe they will rebound and thrive. 4. Blink. Many times inadequate information exists or there is a lack of awareness of what is really happening in the environment to identify problems, much less solve them. In these situations, executives must act with incomplete knowledge. If they wait until the information is complete, they could miss key windows of opportunity. In some cases, executives must learn to use their hunches, gut reactions, and intuition because they don’t have access to complete information. They have to simply make a decision and move forward. Malcolm Gladwell, in his book Blink , makes the case for times when using “thin-slicing” or just a few pieces of critical information suffice to make fast decisions. As Gladwell notes, sometimes it is essential that we pay attention to those short moments of first reactions, impressions, and conclusions when we confront complex situations and problems. 5. Learn and question. Individuals with a critical thinking mindset often frame difficult challenges as learning opportunities, with an innate concern to know the business and stay well informed, to gain clarity in questions, to seek relevant information and to be open to learning about new ideas. As an example, the onslaught of social media tools, such as Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter among others, creates opportunities and challenges for companies and employees to learn new ways of marketing, think differently about their products, and interact with consumers. Those with a critical thinking mindset open themselves to new ideas; new ways of viewing issues, and constantly ask relevant questions. 6. Think at the organization-environment level. Organizations need people whom are “active stewards” and think of ways to help the organization achieve its overall goals. This contrasts sharply a mindset that focuses solely on oneself or one’s unit. While understandable, viewing an organization’s needs through the lens of a particular unit or oneself often hinders critical thinking. Defensive and protective thinking is probably one of the biggest disasters with internal organizational interactions, and unfortunately, it is part of a normal thought pattern that exists within many organizations. People sometimes spend way too much precious psychic energy endlessly guarding their own ego or their own area, and it’s especially easy to fall into this type of mindset while under pressure. Yet, organizations need executives who put their own feelings and needs aside to think about issues from an organizational perspective towards accomplishing the greater goal. 7. Push through roadblocks. Too often people hit a roadblock and simply stop trying to develop a new idea or new way of conducting business. A research development executive at Microsoft shared that often as he pushes out a new idea at first, he is thought of as crazy for a few months, then he becomes a hero as the idea gains acceptance, and then goes back to being a nobody as the product takes traction. And so the cycle goes – generation of idea, perseverance through roadblocks to gain buy-in, to implementation – to final results. In contrast, I often see executives suggest great ideas in meetings, but if not acknowledged by others, they withdraw from the conversation, never to mention the idea again. People with critical thinking mindsets continue to think of new ways to communicate, gain buy-in for ideas and push through the roadblocks. As noted by Warren Bennis, “innovation– any new idea–by definition will not be accepted at first. It takes repeated attempts, endless demonstrations, monotonous rehearsals before innovation can be accepted and internalized by an organization. This requires courageous patience.” 8. Be open to new __________ (fill in the blank). Often, problems require a paradigm shift – a new way of thinking about the business. Many people can’t conceptualize a new paradigm for their business or industry. What we often don’t hear in solving problems is a critical reframing of the questions to address root causes. Individuals and companies with a critical thinking mindset open themselves to new ways of doing business, new ways of thinking about product lines and customers, and to business model paradigm shifts. Questions such as, “if you could start with the blank sheet of paper, how would you design the solution to your business problems” must be asked. Pay attention to the directions that the trends and data suggest. Starbucks recently launched a new instant coffee product called Via. CEO Howard Shultz was criticized by others saying that the launch of Via was an act of desperation and that Starbucks was driving sales simply through promotions. However, sales reached $100 million in just 10 months and Starbucks just launched another flavor of the instant coffee mirroring its most popular brewed product. As Howard Shultz noted in an interview, “it wasn’t a desperate move. It was really finding an opportunity that we could create, and bring something to the market that our customers would embrace. We have created a business that will exceed $100 million in its first year. That category of instant coffee has not had any innovation over 50 years, and we’re going to build a major business.” 9. Be optimistic. When thinking about significant issues, it is important to be realistically optimistic and anticipate positive outcomes. Martin Seligman’s research on learned optimism demonstrates that optimism allows a person to be proactive and productive in the face of the possibility of failure, to lead and encourage others. Optimism inspires and inspiration is often needed for success. 10. Create an environment that supports it. Executives should create an environment conducive to a critical thinking mindset. Often the size of the organization can influence the development of a positive mindset. Large organizations may have more difficulty being nimble and flexible around their thinking due to complexity and communication. In organizations with a deep history and culture of maintaining the status quo and not promoting innovative thought, it is much more difficult to move quickly to a critical thinking culture. Lack of rewards within the organization limits how much people engage in a critical thinking mindset. If critical thinking is not rewarded within the organization through praise, promotions, merit increases, it simply won’t happen as often. 3M is a corporation highly regarded for its innovation. In Century of Innovation , a 3M book about its history, it points to “four key ingredients that foster a culture of innovation at 3M: attracting and retaining imaginative and productive people; creating a challenging environment; designing an organization that doesn’t get in people’s way; and offering rewards that nourish both self-esteem and personal bank accounts.” Unleashing a Critical Thinking Mindset To succeed in our rapidly changing business environment, leaders, employees, and organizations must place a critical thinking mindset on the top of the agenda. The big issues facing organizations today require dramatic change that is bold, optimistic, innovative, and courageous. Leaders need to approach all sectors with a critical thinking mindset, not just those traditionally known for innovation such as technology, biotech, and space science. Energy, health care, transportation, education, financial markets, non-profits, among many others are going to need to take on the next decade with a new lens… an attitude and persistence to solve the big problems and move forward in bold, courageous, and new ways. In the words of Albert Einstein, “we can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.”

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Ian Fletcher: Free Trade Isn’t Helping World Poverty

March 19, 2011

The propaganda for free trade tells us that not only is it the master key to our own prosperity, but also the master key to lifting the world’s poor out of poverty. So if we don’t support free trade, we’re in for a guilt trip like the one that used to make us stick quarters into UNICEF boxes. Unfortunately, free trade just doesn’t work as a global anti-poverty strategy. The spreading Third World affluence one sees in TV commercials only means that the thin upper crust of Western-style consumers is now more widespread than ever before. But having more affluent people in the Third World is not the same as the Third World as a whole nearing the living standards of the First. This is actually not a terribly big secret, and is fairly well known to the people who promote free trade. For a start, the World Bank standard for poverty is $2 a day, so “moving people out of poverty” can merely consist in moving people from $1.99 a day to $2.01 a day. In one major study, there were only two nations in which the average beneficiary jumped from less than $1.88 to more than $2.13: Pakistan and Thailand. Every other nation was making minor jumps in between. The developing world’s gains from trade liberalization (insofar as there are any) are concentrated in a relatively small group of nations, due to the fact that only a few developing nations have economies that are actually capable of taking advantage of freer trade to any meaningful extent. Although it depends a bit on the model, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Vietnam, and Turkey generally take the lion’s share. This list sounds impressive, but it actually leaves out most Third World nations. Dirt-poor nations like Haiti aren’t even on the radar. Even nations one notch up the scale, like Bolivia, barely figure. So forget helping starving children in Africa this way. They’re not even in the game of international trade–let alone winners of it. Like it or not, this is perfectly logical, as increased access to the ruthlessly competitive global marketplace (which is all free trade provides) benefits only nations whose industries have something to sell which foreign trade barriers are currently keeping out . Their industries must both be strong enough to be globally competitive and have pent-up potential due to trade barriers abroad, a fairly rare combination. As a result, the most desperately impoverished nations, which have few or no internationally competitive industries, have basically nothing to gain from freer trade. What progress against poverty has occurred in the world in recent decades has not been due to free trade, but due to the embrace of mercantilism and industrial policy by some poor nations. (This is, of course, the same way nations like the U.S. and England became prosperous hundreds of years ago.) According to the World Bank, the entire net global decline in the number of people living in poverty since 1981 has been in mercantilist China, where free trade is spurned. Elsewhere, their numbers have grown. The story on global economic progress for poor nations in the last 30 years is roughly as follows: 1. China (one fifth of humanity) braked its population growth, made a quantum leap from agrarian Marxism to industrial mercantilism, and thrived–largely because the U.S. was so open to being the “designated driver” of its export-centered growth strategy during this period. 2. India (another fifth) sharply increased the capitalist share of its mixture of capitalism and Gandhian-Fabian socialism after 1991. It did reasonably well, but not as well as China and not well enough to reduce the absolute number of its people living in poverty, given unbraked population growth. 3. Latin America lost its way after the oil shocks of the 1970s, experienced the 1980s as an economic “lost decade,” and tried to implement the free market Washington Consensus in the 1990s. It didn’t get the promised results, so some nations responded with a pragmatic retreat from free market purism, others with a lurch to the left, the former showing results in the last five years or so. 4. The collapse of Communism left some nations (Cuba, North Korea) marooned in Marxist poverty, while others (Uzbekistan, Mongolia) discovered that the only thing worse than an intact communist economy is the wreckage of one. Much of Eastern Europe and the ex-USSR got burned by an overly abrupt transition to capitalism, then recovered at various speeds. 5. Sub-Saharan Africa spent much of this period in political chaos, with predictable economic results (except for South Africa and Botswana). Washington Consensus policies in the 1990s did not deliver, and the few recent bright spots have yet to deliver increased per capita income or lower unemployment. 6. Other poor countries followed patterns one through five to varying degrees, with corresponding outcomes. China is unquestionably the star here. But all its brutally efficient achievements in forcing up the living standards of its people from an extremely low base, it still has serious problems. Its growth miracle has been largely confined to the metropolitan areas of the country’s coastal provinces. Of the 800 million peasants left behind in agriculture, perhaps 400 million have seen their incomes stagnate or even decline. Over the last 30 years of greatly expanding free trade, most of the world’s poor nations have actually seen the gap between themselves and the rest of the world increase. As economist Dani Rodrik of Harvard summarizes the data: The income gap between these regions of the developing world and the industrial countries has been steadily rising. In 1980, 32 Sub-Saharan countries had an income per capita at purchasing power parity equal to 9.3 percent of the U.S. level, while 25 Latin American and Caribbean countries had an income equal to 26.3 percent of the U.S. average. By 2004, the numbers had dropped to 6.1 percent and 16.5 percent respectively for these two regions. This represents a drop of over 35 percent in relative per capita income. Today, because a few formerly poor nations are succeeding economically while most have been hit with economic decline, the world is splitting into a “twin peaks” income distribution, with a hollowing out of middle-income countries. A significant number of nations have gone backwards, and are now poorer than they were a generation ago. Most poor nations have high fertility, so population growth drags down their per capita income by a percentage point or two every year if economic growth does not outpace it. Contrary to impressions in the media, economic success is actually becoming more concentrated in the Western world, not less. According to one summary of the data by Syed Murshed of Erasmus University in Holland: Between 1960 and 2000 the Western share of rich countries has been increasing; to be affluent has almost become an exclusive Western prerogative–16 out of 19 non-Western nations who were rich in 1960 traversed into less affluent categories by 2000 (for example, Algeria, Angola, and Argentina). Against that, four Asian non-rich countries moved into the first group. Most non-Western rich nations in 1960 joined the second income group by 2000, and most non-Western upper-middle-income countries in 1960 had fallen into the second and third categories by 2000. Of 22 upper-middle-income nations in 1960, 20 had declined into the third and fourth income categories, among them the Democratic Republic of the Congo, also known recently as Zaire, and Ghana. Most nations in the third group in 1960 descended into the lowest income category by 2000. Only Botswana moved to the third group from the fourth category, while Egypt remains in the third category. We seem to inhabit a downwardly mobile world with a vanishing middle class ; by 2000 most countries were either rich or poor, in contrast to 1960 when most nations were in the middle-income groups. (Emphasis added.) This is no accident. Free trade tends to mean that the industrial sectors of developing nations either “make it to the big time” and become globally competitive, or else they get killed off entirely by imports, leaving nothing but agriculture and raw materials extraction, dead-end sectors which tend not to grow very fast. Free trade eliminates the protected middle ground for economies, like Mongolia or Peru, which don’t have globally competitive industrial sectors but were still better off having such sectors, albeit inefficient ones, than not having them at all. The productivity of modern industry is so much higher than peasant agriculture that it raises average income even if it is not globally competitive. Nations which open up their economies to (somewhat) free trade relatively late in their development, and continue to support domestic firms with industrial policy, are far more likely to retain medium and high technology industry, the key to their futures, than nations which embrace full-blown free trade and a laissez faire absence of industrial policy too early in their development. There are numerous documented cases in which trade liberalization simply killed off indigenous industries without supplying anything to replace them. To take some typical examples given by the International Forum on Globalization: Senegal experienced large job losses following liberalization in the late 1980s; by the early 1990s, employment cuts had eliminated one-third of all manufacturing jobs. The chemical, textile, shoe, and automobile assembly industries virtually collapsed in the Ivory Coast after tariffs were abruptly lowered by 40 percent in 1986. Similar problems have plagued liberalization attempts in Nigeria. In Sierra Leone, Zambia, Zaire, Uganda, Tanzania, and the Sudan, liberalization in the 1980s brought a tremendous surge in consumer imports and sharp cutbacks in foreign exchange available for purchases of intermediate inputs and capital goods, with devastating effects on industrial output and employment. In Ghana, liberalization caused industrial sector employment to plunge from 78,700 in 1987 to 28,000 in 1993. One unhappy corollary of this is the so-called Vanek-Reinert effect, in which the most advanced sectors of a primitive economy are the ones destroyed by a sudden transition to free trade. Once these sectors are gone, a nation can be locked in poverty indefinitely.

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Air France Faces Manslaughter Charges For 2009 Crash

March 18, 2011

PARIS — A French judge filed preliminary charges Friday against Air France over a 2009 crash that killed all 228 people aboard a jet that plunged into the Atlantic Ocean. Air France CEO Pierre-Henri Gourgeon said the decision is “unfounded.” Judge Sylvie Zimmerman filed the preliminary charges Friday, a day after doing the same against Airbus, the maker of the doomed jet. Preliminary charges allow investigating judges to continue their probe before deciding whether to send the case to trial. Air France Flight 447 dived into the Atlantic on June 1, 2009, amid an intense, high-altitude thunderstorm while flying from Rio de Janeiro to Paris. The cause of the crash remains unclear, and may never be determined without the “black box” flight recorders, somewhere in the ocean depths. A fourth search operation aimed at looking for them starts next week. Automatic messages sent by the Airbus 330 jet’s computers show it was receiving false air speed readings from sensors known as pitot tubes. Investigators have said the crash was likely caused by a series of problems, and not just sensor error. “We are protesting this,” Gourgeon told reporters at the courthouse. “It seems to us that it is unfounded.” Air France and Airbus will finance the estimated $12.5 million cost of the new search effort, in which three advanced underwater robots will scour the mountainous ocean floor between Brazil and western Africa, in depths of up to 4,000 meters (13,120 feet).

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BP: Libya State Oil Contract Still Valid

March 17, 2011

LONDON (Alex Lawler/Reuters) – BP Plc said on Thursday it saw its contract with Libya’s National Oil Corporation as still valid, a day after Italy’s Eni became the first Western oil and gas firm to try to rebuild bridges with NOC. BP has no oil and gas production in Libya and in February was preparing for the start of exploratory drilling in western Libya when it suspended the effort due to the uprising against Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. “At the moment we just have to wait and see. We’re monitoring the situation. We have a contract with NOC and as far as we know it is still in place,” a BP spokesman said. Oil firms pulled out staff and shut operations in what is usually Africa’s third-largest producer and holder of the continent’s largest oil reserves. The revolt against Gaddafi is now struggling to hold its ground one month after it started. Eni, which produces oil and gas in Libya, on Wednesday called on Europe to abandon sanctions against Libya and Austria’s OMV, also an important player there, said it still saw Libya’s NOC as its partner. “Europe is the main importer of Libyan oil and its chemical composition and proximity makes it very attractive, which is one of the reasons you have some companies indicating that they are keen to go back to normal and cement cordial ties perhaps regardless of whether their governments do so or not,” said Henry Smith, Libya analyst at risk consultancy Control Risks. Some Libyan officials have sent signals that foreign companies would be welcome back. The head of NOC, Shokri Ghanem, said on Wednesday Libya’s government will honour existing contracts with Western oil companies, although this appeared at odds with earlier remarks from Gaddafi. Royal Dutch Shell Plc, which like BP was also doing exploration work in Libya and has no production there, said on Thursday its foreign staff remained outside the country. “Shell has temporarily relocated its expatriate staff from Libya. The safety and security of all our staff remain our primary concern and we are in touch with our staff in country on a regular basis,” a Shell spokesman said via email. “Shell offices remain closed.” Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Video: Hammoudeh Says Libyan Revolution Won’t Spread to Algeria: Video

March 11, 2011

March 11 (Bloomberg) — Shawkat Hammoudeh, an economics professor at Drexel University, talks about the political unrest in the Middle East and northern Africa and its impact on oil-producing nations in the region. Hammoudeh speaks with Matt Miller and Carol Massar on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Oil Prices Soar Again

March 7, 2011

(AP) Oil prices climbed to near $106 a barrel Monday as intense fighting between Libyan government forces and rebels appeared to be turning into a civil war and raised the prospect of a prolonged cut in crude exports from the OPEC nation. By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark crude for April delivery was up $2.25 to $106.67 a barrel, the highest since September 2008, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract had gained $2.51 to settle at $104.42 a barrel on Friday. In London, Brent crude for April delivery was up $1.80 to $117.77 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. Over the weekend, supporters and opponents of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi fought in several cities, heightening fears that the country is headed for a protracted conflict. Libya’s oil output has fallen by at least 1 million barrels per day from 1.6 million since the uprising began last month. Investors also are concerned violent protests and political upheaval could intensify in the Middle East, where Iran, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and Saudi Arabia have more than 60 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves. “It is essentially the fear of the unrest spreading across the entire region which is pushing oil prices up,” said Commerzbank in Frankfurt. “Northern Africa and the Middle East produce more than one-third of the global supply of crude oil.” Citigroup said it raised its 2011 average forecast for Brent crude to $105 from $90, but doesn’t expect the violent protests in North Africa and the Middle East to spread to Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter. “We assume that output disruption is maintained through the second quarter,” Citigroup said in a report. “Output disruption, or at least the threat of, will support a fear premium for the rest of 2011.” Some analysts expect the recent jump in oil prices – up 26 percent since Feb. 15 – will only have a negligible impact on inflation and economic growth in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer. “Oil above $100 will not send the economy back into a recession,” Capital Economics said in a report. “The oil price would have to rise much further to seriously threaten the U.S. economy.” Nonetheless, President Barack Obama’s chief of staff said Sunday that the administration was evaluating the possibility of tapping into the country’s strategic oil reserves – totaling 727 million barrels – as a way of contending with rising gasoline prices. While the fear of supply disruptions was usually mentioned as the key factor for higher oil prices, analysts said speculators also were playing a role. The large trading volumes tied to speculative investments had helped boost market transparency and liquidity, Commerzbank said. “Things become critical, though, when speculators become the main driving force behind prices and, as we see it, this is the case at the moment on the energy markets,” the German bank said. In other Nymex trading in April contracts, heating oil rose 3.6 cents to $3.1253 a gallon, and gasoline gained 3.74 cents to $3.0838 a gallon. Natural gas futures were down 7 cents at $3.74 per 1,000 cubic feet.

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Robert Lenzner: Oil Prices Above $100 Threaten Recovery, Stock Market

March 4, 2011

Higher oil prices trumped the lower unemployment figures today. Violence in Libya trumps signs of economic recovery; 8.9% unemployment and a 3.1% gain in factory orders. The Economist cover today says it all; “Just as the world Economy was recovering,” came the “2011 oil shock.” After all, the Middle East and north Africa produce more than 1/3rd of the world’s oil. Mull that factoid thoroughly over the weekend. Another run-up to $103 for West Texas crude and $116 for Brent oil — the unpleasant ramifications of Middle East unrest — are a much more powerful dynamic than the reduction of unemployment in the US below 9% for the first time in 2 years. This is called the unexpected ramifications of geopolitics as a monkey wrench into the quantitative easing policy of the Bernanke Fed. Welcome to global risk! Revolution can indeed disrupt oil supply, shake confidence in a recovery, and drive investors to panic and sell. Investors in the stock market are the new refugees, unseen, but heard. Higher oil means lower stocks, as Wall Street deals with the expectation of the economy’s renewed momentum slowing down. A slowing down economy means a slowing down earnings projection and profit taking after the sensational run-up since last summer. At $100 a barrel, the cost of oil will raise the costs of transportation and production of many goods, cutting down some measure of already modest projections of economic growth. “We do not see $100 oil derailing the US expansion. However, if sustained $100 oil could shave some 0.3% to 0.5% from GDP, implying 2.7% growth in 2011 instead of 3.0%,” says Marshall Front, founder of Front Barnett LLC, a Chicago investment counseling firm. “It would take gasoline prices above $4.00 a gallon for a protracted period to threaten the expansion.” The ultimate scare scenario, brought to us by perpetual bear Nouriel Roubini, is the provocative prediction that $150 oil (higher than July, 2008) will take 2% out of GDP. Nasty; better pray for the Saudi monarchy to stay firmly in control, and Iran, Kuwait, UAE are able to maintain their usual production for export. Gold and silver still acted strongly today. Silver, incredibly, rose over $35 an ounce, and is up 25% since we first recommended it last fall. But traders like Dennis Gartman, a technician with a big following (CNBC’s guru) and GLD, the huge ETF, have been sellers in February. (GLD had outflow over $700 million in February — after being down $2 billion in January. We reported that turning point phenomenon.) As GLD goes, so might gold in the short run. Now comes Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, asserting his investment attraction to the much maligned dollar. You will recall the rule of thumb that 70% of the time, when the dollar is strong, gold is weak. Fink, founder and CEO of BlackRock, the largest investment management firm in the world, with $3.5 trillion in assets, is predicting a 4% coupon for 10 year Treasuries, and as a result a strong dollar. He is a major buyer of dollars, and if correct a rising dollar will be a depressant for gold prices. “Inflation in the long run will not a be a problem,” Fink said on TV this week. “I’m a very big buyer of the dollar.” Not good for the gold bulls, John Paulson and George Soros — and their flock of followers. You heard it here first.

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Glenn Hubbard: A Marshall Plan for the Middle East?

February 28, 2011

The recent and current upheavals in the Middle East mark a good moment for the United States to rethink its economic aid to the region. Over the past twenty years, the Middle East has been the largest recipient of U.S. economic assistance — but to what result? From the perspective of promoting local business, American aid has been a failure. For example, Egypt ranks #94 on the World Bank’s Doing Business Index , in the bottom half of the total list of 183 countries. Looking at components of the Index, Egypt makes it difficult for its own citizens to start and run businesses. U.S. aid to Egypt has done little to change that. The problem is especially acute for informal businesses expanding into the formal sector: on the two key indicators of “Dealing with construction permits” and “Enforcing contracts,” Egypt ranks #154 and #143, respectively. Small businesses especially face a corrupt administrative and legal system full of obstacles that only bribes can bypass. Recall that these recent upheavals in the Arab world began when a small businessperson in Tunisia set himself on fire to protest just such obstacles. U.S. economic aid to the Middle East has mostly funded government infrastructure projects and food aid — neither of which helps small and medium sized local business. More recently, it funded NGO projects, too. In general, economic aid to the region has been no different from U.S. aid to other low-income countries, especially in Africa, with similar poor results. But all prosperous countries of the world got that way not through government infrastructure, food aid, or NGO projects, but through the growth of a domestic business sector. India and China are only the most recent examples. Like it or not, a thriving local business sector is the only path to prosperity and stability the world has ever known. We find a similar story across the region. Oil-rich countries, of course, receive little or no U.S. economic assistance. Elsewhere, American economic aid in the Middle East has failed to help local business. That includes the two newest large aid programs, in Iraq and Afghanistan: despite billions spent in the last decade on economic assistance, they rank #166 and #167 out of 183 countries on the Doing Business list. The Iraqi and Afghani governments essentially prevent local citizens from starting and running businesses, yet American economic aid continues to pour into the country, with the usual poor results. Even in Egypt, where reforms over the past decade have helped a few large Egyptian companies thrive, with a well-functioning stock exchange to facilitate large-firm financing and investment. But there are only 663 listed companies, for a population of 83 million. The missing middle — small and medium-scale business — is Egypt’s main economic problem. Education over recent decades has developed a deep pool of skilled labor among the young, but without a thriving local business sector, the Egyptian economy can never absorb young workers. But there is a successful precedent for U.S. aid to help the local business sector of foreign nations — the Marshall Plan for postwar Europe. The program made loans to local European businesses, which repaid the loans to a national fund, which then used the money for commercial infrastructure to further help those same local businesses. In order to qualify for the program, each country had to make reforms that allowed their business sectors to function, just as the Doing Business Index shows. That program is exactly the kind of aid the Middle East really needs. And the basic Marshall model offers many variations: the kinds of loans can vary widely, and the commercial infrastructure can range from training for accountants to the more traditional ports and roads. Of course, postwar Europe had a stronger tradition of local business than the Middle East does now. But one of the most successful Marshall Plan countries was Greece, which in 1947 was poor and lacked a local business sector. And all Middle East countries had small but thriving business sectors in the recent past, before the current crop of authoritarian regimes crushed it. Again, Egypt is a striking example: Nasser socialized the economy in the 1950s and 1960s, but starting in the 1990s, Egypt has slowly dismantled parts its state-run economy in favor of a normal business sector. A Marshall Plan for Egypt is the best way for American aid to help that process. Such aid to the local business sector is also an important tool to limit the spread of Islamic extremism, which several Middle East regimes have used an iron fist to suppress. Only a thriving business middle class offers a stable foundation for a democratic alternative. Turkey is the most striking example, where a pro-business Islamic government has fostered a democratic middle class. Turkey has evolved from the same kind of state-run, authoritarian system as other Middle East nations, and now ranks #65 on the Doing Business Index, between the Czech Republic and Poland. After all, remember the origin of the Marshall Plan. At the time, Secretary of State George Marshall proposed that the best way to fight the spread of communism in Europe was through local business. That strategy can contribute to the battle against Islamic extremism as well. Egypt’s current aid program should become an Egyptian Marshall Plan, and help give Egypt the stable, democratic middle class it has needed all along. Unfortunately, it will not be easy to convert the current U.S. aid program to the Middle East into a modern Marshall Plan. Despite its past failures, the current aid system features a system of entrenched interests that are resistant to any changes. Some anti-American sentiment by some of the recent protesters came from the support that the current aid system gave to the regime. The popular call for change across the Middle East is a good moment for a change in the aid system to the region as well. Mr. Hubbard, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush, is dean of Columbia Business School. Mr. Duggan is a professor at Columbia Business School.

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No End In Sight For Libyan Oil Supply Fears

February 27, 2011

MADRID — Libya’s oil industry is in chaos – and there’s no telling when that will end. Armed men loot equipment from oil field installations. British commandos execute secret raids in the Libyan desert to rescue stranded oil workers as security disintegrates rapidly in remote camps. Libyan port workers, frightened of being caught up in Moammar Gadhafi’s violent crackdown on protesters, fail to show up for work, leaving empty tankers floating around the Mediterranean Sea waiting to load crude. And the European oil companies extracting Libya’s black gold are operating in crisis mode, trying to get stranded expatriate workers out and safe amid conflicting information on how much oil is still being pumped and just where it all is. That was just this week. The situation is not expected to get better in the near future. No one knows whether Gadhafi or the rebels trying to oust him will end up controlling Africa’s biggest oil reserves. Fears abound that Libya could turn into a fractured nation with competing armed groups ruling over rich and remote desert fields lying hundreds of miles (kilometers) apart from each other. The chaos in Libya as it descends into virtual civil war has sent international oil prices skyrocketing despite a pledge from Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, to ramp up exports. And that volatility is likely to continue, because it could take weeks or even months for Libyan production and exports to return to normal levels, experts said. That has sent already over-caffinated oil traders into a frenzy that won’t calm down until there’s more clarity about what is happening on the ground in Libya. The International Energy Agency reported late Friday that Libya is probably still producing about 850,000 barrels of oil daily, down from its normal capacity of 1.6 million barrels – but acknowledged the estimate is based on “incomplete, conflicting information.” Libya produces just under 2 percent of the world’s oil, but its customers are overwhelmingly European. Hardest hit by the sudden oil shortage are European refiners that receive 85 percent of Libya’s exports, turning the country’s highly valued crude into diesel and jet fuel. The biggest buyers are Italy, France, Germany and Spain – and Spain is so concerned it announced Friday that highway speed limits will be reduced in March in a desperate bid to cut fuel consumption. The biggest problem facing oil companies and European consumers who depend on Libyan oil is a near-complete breakdown in solid information. Phones in Libya rarely work, Internet is intermittent, workers are fleeing and looters are grabbing what they can or pose a threat until order is restored. While British military planes staged a daring desert rescue Saturday of 150 oil workers, hundreds of other workers were heading across the Sahara Desert in bus convoys toward the Egyptian border – a grueling trip. One evacuee said the military plane he boarded in Libya was supposed to carry around 65 people, but quickly grew to double that. “It was very cramped but we were just glad to be out of there,” Patrick Eyles, a 43-year-old Briton, said at Malta International Airport. Spain’s Repsol-YPF oil company announced Tuesday it had suspended operations in Libya, only to find out a day later that the oil fields it operates with other firms were still producing 160,000 barrels of crude daily. Still, that was less than half of the 360,000 barrels produced before the crisis began. Despite reports that production was still under way in the vast Saharan desert Amal fields, Libyans never before permitted to approach the oil fields under Gadhafi’s reign showed up armed and took anything they could – four-wheel drive vehicles, pumps, generators. One group came with a trailer and tried to remove a huge crane, said Gavin de Salis, chairman of Britain’s OPS international oil field services company. “Nobody shot anyone,” De Salis. “But people were wandering around with guns saying ‘Thanks, we’ll take your vehicle since you’re leaving anyway.’” Two buses arranged by De Salis’ company were ferrying 117 expatriate workers toward Egypt on Sunday, a trip expected to last 24 hours or more, and he said another bus was expected to take 25 expatriates out. Even though production appears to be limping along – with Repsol reporting that Libyan oil workers are increasingly running operations as expatriates leave – the oil isn’t getting out. The 320-mile (520-kilometer) natural gas pipeline under the Mediterranean from Libya to the Italian island of Sicily has been shut down for a week, with no guidance from its owner, the Italian energy firm Eni SpA, on when it might start pumping again. “Most Libyan ports are closed due to bad weather, staff shortages, or production outages,” the IEA reported. Ports are key because Libya’s crude heads abroad on tankers. Major container ship companies have suspended deliveries or pickups from Libyan ports with no word on when shipments might resume. Tanker ships that deliver to Europe have been told to stay more than 100 miles (160 kilometers) offshore from some Libyan ports and await information on whether they can safely dock and take on oil. The massive oil terminal at Brega, Libya’s second-largest hydrocarbon complex, was nearly deserted over the weekend, with operations scaled back almost 90 percent because employees had fled and ships were not showing up. The Brega complex, about 125 miles (200 kilometers) west of the rebel stronghold of Benghazi, collects crude oil and gas from Libya’s fields in the southeast and prepares it for export. Since the crisis began Feb. 15, however, General Manager Fathi Eissa said production had dropped from 90,000 barrels of crude a day to 11,000. With huge spherical storage containers and reservoirs rapidly filling up with oil and natural gas and no ships to take it away, production in the southern fields has been throttled back until Brega can clear some of its capacity. The big oil companies have been mum on how the political situation may pan out, because they want to produce oil whether Gadhafi or someone else ends up in charge, and it’s not worth it for them to risk alienating any of the groups vying for power, said Mohammed El-Katiri, a Middle East analyst at the Eurasia Group risk consulting group. In a worst-case scenario, El-Katiri predicted it could take between four to six months to for Libya’s domestic unrest to ease. “Such a scenario bodes poorly from an oil production point of view on two counts: Not only will it compromise production with Gadhafi still in power, but ongoing violence could further complicate the ability of a post-Gadhafi political order to emerge in a manner that creates a stable domestic security environment,” El-Katiri said. Repsol’s chairman, Antonio Brufau, told reporters he would get his last expatriate workers out using bicycles if necessary – and El-Katiri said oil companies won’t send them back in until they know it’s safe. De Salis said some expatriates could return without a functioning central government but only if local security situations improve. Leaving oil fields deserted in Libya creates even more security problems. In Nigeria, opportunistic villagers, rebels or pirates often tap pipelines in a dangerous bid to steal fuel, leaving many killed or maimed in accidents and pipelines compromised by sabotage. About the only positive sign for Libya’s oil future is that experts believe both Gadhafi and the rebels want to restart suspended oil operations as quickly as possible because they covet Libya’s oil wealth. “For Gadhafi, the money helps because he can keep on paying his militias and mercenaries to keep them fighting and loyal,” El-Katiri said. The rebels, meanwhile, don’t want to alienate Western governments that depend on Libyan oil, he said, and also need money to be strong enough “to resist attacks by Gadhafi.” ___ Paul Schemm in Brega, Libya; Chris Kahn and Jon Fahey in New York and Cassandra Vinograd in London contributed to this report.

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Gold Eyes $1430/oz as Middle East/North Africa Tensions Escalate

February 26, 2011

Gold Eyes $1430/oz as Middle East/North Africa Tensions Escalate

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Chris Martenson, Ph.D.: Egypt’s Warning: Are You Listening?

February 10, 2011

One day, a fruit and vegetable seller was arrested in Tunisia, sparking social unrest, and a few weeks later the government of Egypt was set to topple.

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Carl Pope: The Next Economic Crisis

February 8, 2011

Mumbai, India — Like stock indexes around the world, India’s Sensex plunged with the news of the unrest in Egypt, largely over fear about oil prices. But unlike other exchanges, the Sensex has not bounded back. It fell for four straight days, rebounded for one, and then on Friday fell by 2.9 percent. But in India oil is not the only commodity whose price can have a devastating economic impact. Indeed, higher oil prices hit India’s economy primarily indirectly — through their impact on food prices, which are up 17 percent. The Nielson Global Consumer Confidence index says Indians are leading the world in worries about food inflation. The moment oil broke the $100/barrel, major domestic banks here announced higher interest rates. And India is not the only country facing a crisis over commodity prices. The Sensex is simply the early warming system that a looming combination of higher oil prices and food inflation threatens to engulf the world this quarter. Ironically, it’s good news that’s partly responsible for this threat. Manufacturing levels all over the world, even in the U.S., have begun to recover from the Great Recession. This puts economic output on a collision course with an underlying shortage of commodities like oil, steel, cement, chemicals, and food. It’s the same pattern that drove up food prices in 2008 and helped tilt the world into recession a year later.

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Raymond J. Learsy: Risks to the Suez Canal Set the Stage for Falsely Hyping the Price of Oil

February 6, 2011

Over the past days, the airwaves and talking heads have been frightening us with somber predictions of what would happen to the price of oil should current events in Egypt shutter the canal. The oil boys and their allies can barely contain themselves in their appearances of concern and like minded predictions of calamity, such as today’s Reuters report quoting Imad al-Atiqi, member of Kuwait’s Supreme Petroleum Council — “I expect oil to reach $110 during the first half of 2011… A huge amount of oil passes through the Suez Canal…” thereby ever nudging oil prices skyward with Brent Crude already surpassing $100 a barrel. Yet has anyone stopped to determine what the closure of the Suez Canal would actually mean to the oil market in dollars and cents? In the shipping world the type of vessel that can transit the Suez Canal has its own designation, named a “Suezmax” category. The typical deadweight of a Suezmax oil tanker is about 240,000 tonnes. Now, approximately 7.1 barrels of oil make up one metric tonne. Therefore a 240,000 tonnes deadweight tanker carries some 1.7 million barrels of oil. According to the New York Times , “Taking cargo around Africa would add about 16 days time to delivering oil to world markets.” Calculating a per diem charter rate for a Suezmax tanker at $50,000 per day (and probably less), brings the additional cost of transporting a cargo of oil, lifting 1.7 million barrels around Africa to $800,000 per voyage. More to the point, the additional cost per barrel of oil would be 47 cents per barrel. And these 47 cents would apply only to the some 1.8 million barrels of crude oil that are transported through the canal (an additional 2mm plus barrels can be transported through Egypt overland via the Sumed pipeline). The additional cost of $800,000 for transporting these 1.8 million barrels around the horn of Africa, distributed over the world’s daily consumption of oil of 85 million barrels, would settle out at just under a penny per barrel. All said, the additional 16 days would be a problem if the oil market were in a state of hand to mouth. Fortuitously, oil stocks are bulging throughout the world and the sixteen days additional steaming time can be easily accommodated with ample leeway to alter delivery schedules factoring in these changed logistics. Clearly, the closing of the Suez Canal to the oil trade would be a hindrance but hardly the disaster portrayed in the media and our friends at OPEC.

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(NVAE) Savanna East Africa, Inc. Announces New CEO to Lead African Expansion Toward $10 Million 2011 Revenue Objective

February 4, 2011

DALLAS, TX–(Marketwire – February 4, 2011) – Savanna East Africa, Inc. ( PINKSHEETS : NVAE ) ( OTCQB : NVAE ) has released a previously scheduled Webcast announcing the Company’s new Chief Executive Officer, Lieutenant Colonel (retired) Randell Torno. LTC Torno has extensive experience in East Africa having recently completed a recall to Active Service from 2007 to 2010, where he last served as the Chief of the United States Africa Command’s Assistance Mission to the Ethiopian Defense Command and Staff College in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia from late 2008 to September 2010. Over the past half year, LTC Torno has also traveled with Savanna East Africa to lead meetings during the Company’s Trade Mission to Kenya last October and most recently with the Kenyan Ministry of Housing in New York City.

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