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Patricia Handschiegel: The New Power Girls: What Business Can Learn From This Power Girl

August 16, 2010

I was just into the first year of owning, running and writing editorial for my first startup, Stylediary , when designer Rebecca Minkoff’s “Morning After Bag” hit the scene. Nearly five years later, I’ve sold the startup while Minkoff has gone on to see her own double in growth every year since. This past week, the two of us hopped on a call to chat about just that — how does an upstart entrepreneur go from launch to being the number one fashion accessory designer in the country? Like any true-blooded Power Girl, I had to find out. Minkoff’s start as a fashion business founder was not unlike my own, or that of many companies today like Facebook and YouTube. It began in her New York apartment, where she had sewn t-shirts by hand. Facebook was started in a college dorm. YouTube, as the story goes, in a garage outside of San Francisco. And just like them, Minkoff’s line caught the eye of mainstream media and consumers. Her now infamous “I Love New York” t-shirt, stitched together by Minkoff herself on her free time, landed in Us Weekly and Jay Leno. Not bad for a first crack at the business. Today, the line is regularly in fashion and mainstream media, including all the top fashion glossies. Actresses Kiera Knightley and Reese Witherspoon are among celebrity fans. This past week, TV personality and author Lauren Conrad noted it as a favorite in Us Weekly. As she and I settled into conversation, I was dying to ask what everybody wants to know: What has been the secret behind her company’s incredible success? “My mom was very entrepreneurial,” she starts, sharing how she found her way into the fashion industry. She once held an internship, and as mentioned hand-sewn her first collection herself. After her first two hits, she and her brother decided to collaborate. But it wasn’t just entrepreneurship and ambition being in her blood, or the collection’s media coverage. In fact, what Minkoff credits to the line’s explosive growth is something rarely heard and seen in much of the business world today, where companies feel they need to be everything to everyone, and products are often created for ad dollars versus what customers might want or need. “I’ve always tried to design things around our customers,” Minkoff shares. “Even before the days of social networks, I was always in communication with them.” From listening to their needs and wants, to connecting directly with them, to excellent customer service, Minkoff put shoppers first. That’s something rare in the midst of a time where executives and CEOs blog and Twitter endlessly about themselves, their lives, their doings, etc. versus what new and existing customers may really be looking for. Minkoff, like a lot of great founders in any market, found success in putting the attention on the opposite end. It’s a formula that has worked. In the past year, she’s relaunched apparel to her collection, and is about to open her first retail store. Not bad for a company that’s just five years old. She’s a true Power Girl! For more information on Minkoff, to see her line or to buy, visit www.rebeccaminkoff.com

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HP Bribery Investigation Heats Up

August 13, 2010

WASHINGTON — Hewlett-Packard Co. said Thursday it is cooperating with U.S. and German authorities investigating allegations that three company executives used bribes to win a contract to sell computer gear to the Russian prosecutors’ office. German prosecutors have been looking into whether the executives, plus at least six accomplices who did not work for the company, paid bribes totaling 8 million euros (about $10.3 million) to win a 35 million-euro contract to supply computers, software and hardware to the Russians. Prosecutors say at least two of the executives no longer work for HP. The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that the Justice Department has asked HP to hand over internal documents to German prosecutors after they complained that the company had refused to provide them with relevant records. The Securities and Exchange Commission is also investigating possible violations of the foreign Corrupt Practices Act, which prohibits bribes of foreign officials. Russian officials, who raided HP’s Moscow offices in April at the request of German prosecutors, have joined the investigation, too. “HP is and has been fully cooperating with all authorities on this matter,” the company said in a statement. The Justice Department and SEC declined comment to The Associated Press. The latest development came just days after HP CEO Mark Hurd abruptly resigned following an investigation into sexual-harassment claims. The company said it found that its sexual harassment policy wasn’t violated, but it uncovered falsified expense reports connected to dinners and other meetings with the woman who made those claims, Jodie Fisher. Hurd has settled with Fisher for an undisclosed sum. HP, based in Palo Alto, Calif., is the world’s No. 1 personal computer maker. The contract for the Russian deal was signed in 2000, and the deliveries continued until 2006 or 2007, German authorities have said. The three executives were arrested in Germany and Switzerland in December and later freed on bail. The participants are suspected of offenses including breach of trust, tax evasion and money laundering, authorities said. Authorities say it’s unclear who took the bribes, which flowed through a network of foreign firms and bank accounts. The matter came to the attention of Dresden prosecutors when a tax office in Germany’s Saxony state inspected a local company whose account was used in the kickback scheme, authorities said.

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Mark Hurd Settlement: Ousted HP CEO Settles With Sexual Harassment Accuser

August 8, 2010

SAN FRANCISCO — The woman at the center of the sexual harassment claim that forced the resignation of Hewlett-Packard Co. CEO Mark Hurd revealed her identity Sunday and said she is “surprised and saddened” that Hurd lost his job. Jodie Fisher, 50, knew Hurd through her contract jobs with HP’s marketing department from 2007 to 2009. She was paid up to $5,000 per event to greet people and make introductions among executives attending HP events that she helped organize. Details revealed Sunday show that she has also worked as a saleswoman, an executive at a commercial real estate company, and as an actress. She appeared in some racy R-rated movies in her 30s and most recently was on a dating show called “Age of Love,” in which women competed for the attention of tennis star Mark Philippoussis. Her lawyer, celebrity attorney Gloria Allred, said Fisher is a single mother who is “focused on raising her young son.” Fisher repeated that she and Hurd never had a sexual relationship but neither she nor Allred would discuss details of the harassment claim. That claim set off the chain of events that led to the discovery of allegedly falsified expense reports for dinners Hurd had with Fisher and culminated in Hurd’s forced resignation Friday from the world’s largest technology company. Fisher acknowledged that she and Hurd have settled the matter. A person familiar with the case told The Associated Press that Hurd agreed to pay Fisher but would not reveal the size of the payment. “I was surprised and saddened that Mark Hurd lost his job over this,” Fisher said in a statement. “That was never my intention.” Hurd settled with Fisher on Thursday, a day before he resigned. The settlement did not involve a payment from HP, the person close to the case said. This person, who spoke on a condition of anonymity, was not authorized to speak publicly about the issue. The investigation by HP’s board of directors found that Hurd listed other people as his dinner partners on expense reports when he’d been out with Fisher. HP also claimed Hurd arranged for her to be paid for work she didn’t do. There was only one instance in which that occurred, the person close to the case said, but it was for an event that was canceled at the last minute and that Fisher’s contract required that she would be paid unless an event was canceled 30 days in advance. The amount of money in question wasn’t known. Hurd, 53, insists they were legitimate business expenses. Hurd says the errors in the reports may have been entered unwittingly by an assistant, according to the person close to the case. The company determined Hurd didn’t violate its sexual harassment policy but broke its rules of conduct and irreparably harmed his credibility and integrity. Interim CEO Cathie Lesjak defended the company’s decision on Sunday. She said HP acted appropriately and that investors and big customers she has spoken with have been “extremely supportive.” “They respect how we dealt with the situation with transparency and speed. The bottom line is, the HP brand is strong,” she said on a conference call with reporters. “One thing happened in this company on Friday – that is the CEO left. The rest of the company did not change.” Lesjak declined to give details about the expenses Hurd was alleged to have doctored. HP now must find a new leader to keep it on the course Hurd mapped out. Under Hurd, HP spent more than $20 billion on acquisitions to transform itself from a computer and printer maker dependent on ink sales for profits to a well-rounded seller of hardware and lucrative business services. Hurd, who spent 25 years at ATM maker NCR Corp. before coming to HP in April 2005, became a Wall Street darling. HP’s market value nearly doubled during his five years. In recent weeks, he was in talks for a three-year contract that could have been worth $100 million, the person close to the case said. Those went off track when harassment allegations surfaced, this person said. Hurd will get about $28 million in cash and stock in severance. HP’s stock fell nearly 10 percent to $41.85 in after-hours trading, when the news was released after the close of markets Friday. The company has a deep bench in management and the stock drop was reactive and doesn’t reflect the company’s prospects, an analyst said. “I don’t view his departure as catastrophic,” said Dinesh Moorjani, an analyst with Gleacher & Co. “The strategy is working fine. The level of uncertainty for me is relatively low just given the circumstances. This wasn’t a one-man company.” Internal candidates for a successor could have an edge, given that Hurd and predecessor Carly Fiorina – who got the boot in 2005 over concern about her management style and her decision to buy Compaq Computer – both came from outside HP. Hurd’s ouster is the third in five years at HP’s top echelon. First was Fiorina’s in 2005, then former Chairwoman Patricia Dunn was ousted in 2006 amid a boardroom spying scandal that involved spying on reporters’ and directors’ phone records to suss out the source of leaks to the media. “It says they’re off track in some fundamental way,” said Stephen Diamond, associate professor at Santa Clara University School of Law and an expert on business law. “The first thing is, they have to find the right kind of CEO,” he added. “And I think what that CEO needs to do is come in and say, ‘How many board members were here during the last two scandals? If you were, please resign now.”

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Liz Ryan: Ten Ways to Explain Why You Want to Change Jobs

July 30, 2010

Dear Liz, I’m job-hunting and I need to be able to tell people why I want to leave my job. I’ve gone as far as I can go in this organization and I’m also pay-limited, but I don’t think I want to say those two things exactly. Any advice? Thanks, Avery Dear Avery, It is fine to say “I had reached a plateau in that job” or “I felt that I’d grown as much as I ever would in that organization.” Here are ten more reasons for leaving a job, expressed in Don’t Say and Do Say versions: TEN REASONS FOR LEAVING A JOB: “DO SAY” AND “DON’T SAY” VERSIONS Don’t Say My boss is Lord Voldemort. Do Say I’m looking to work more independently in my next job, in a company that needs people who can figure out what to do and do it. Don’t Say I was underpaid. Do Say I wasn’t going to be able to grow in that job. Don’t Say I was overworked. Do Say I’m very big on looking at my work and figuring out smarter ways to do it. I’m pretty flexible for the most part, I think, but mindless scutwork drives me crazy, and I’m looking for an organization that is oriented to make things simpler and smarter all the time. Don’t Say I got passed over for a promotion. Do Say Some organizations look at a person and say “What can this person do?” and they have that person work on different things, whatever he or she is good at, regardless of what the job description says. Other organizations are ruled by their policies and job descriptions. I was in the second kind of company, and I’m looking for the first kind. Don’t Say I got laid off. Do Say The big strategic issue in the company over the past year has been, “Do we want to continue to sell to both resellers and consumers, or pick one?” and the ultimate decision was to support the resellers exclusively. That is probably the right decision, but it made client-service coordinators like me unnecessary, and so our group was downsized. The silver lining is that I learned a ton about both B2C and B2B client service in that job, and I’m looking to use that knowledge in my next assignment. Don’t Say I’m looking for something closer to home. Do Say The job was an hour from my house, which actually would have been fine if the challenge and the intellectual stimulation gave me something to mull over and strategize about while I was on the train, but what I found is that the job itself was rote enough that the two hours per day were all but wasted, brain-activity-wise. All that thinking time made it clear that I need a job where I’m more engaged, that will use more of my gray matter and let me do more important work for the company. Don’t Say The company is about to go under. Do Say What’s fun about moving through different organizations is that you get to see how industries work and how companies survive and thrive in their competitive landscapes. In that organization, I felt that the attention to product quality and customer service weren’t at the level that it would take to compete against our competitors, but the strategy was to stay at the entry-level end of the market, where sales volume has been eroding fast. It was an incredible learning experience for me, but the signs were clear that it was time for me to make a change. Don’t Say I had a bad performance review. Do Say The organization’s goals were to grow market share and launch new products, so it was a great fit from that standpoint. My manager was pretty consumed with a Salesforce.com implementation, and my job had little to do with that project, but was very important to our sales team and its VP. I worked closely with those folks and loved it, but I’m interested in Sales Operations rather than in having a sales territory, so I decided to find something less focused on IT and more targeted at creating leverage for the sales force. Don’t Say The politics in that place could choke a horse. Do Say I found that over the last year most of my time was going to non-essential, internal procedural and who-needs-to-approve-this type issues. I am sympathetic to the leadership team navigating some difficult terrain in the marketplace, but I needed to find an organization that’s focused on its opportunities and clients, and a job that’s about the future and what is possible. Don’t Say My job was billed as one thing and turned out to be another. Do Say I took the job for the opportunity to work with a group of contract trainers around the globe — two of my favorite things, virtual teams and international work! As the company shifted to working with agencies rather than individual trainers, my work became more clerical, related to contract terms with those agencies, and was a waste of brainpower both for the company and for me — my strong suit is building teams, setting up processes to make the clerical stuff easy, and then keeping the remote teams happy, in the loop and looking forward. Cheers — Liz

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Tony Schwartz: The Crash You Can Avoid

July 22, 2010

We live in a world that defines “more, bigger faster” as invariably better. It’s an ethic that places the greatest value on companies that offer ever more products and services, and generate ever higher profits. It’s an ethic that rewards and prizes people who work the longest hours, move at the highest speeds, take the least downtime, and juggle the most tasks at the same time. But it’s also an ethic that can survive and prosper only so long as capacity — the planet’s resources and our own — exceeds the demand we make on it. For generations, we’ve acted on the belief that we can consume as many of the earth’s resources as we want, blithely confident that there will always be more where they came from. We’ve done much the same with our internal resources. We spend our own internal energy at more and more furious rates, on the assumption that our capacity naturally expands to meet rising demand. The jig is nearly up. The problem with “more bigger faster” is that it generates value that is narrow, shallow, and short term — diminishing returns until there are ultimately no returns at all. Was the BP disaster an anomalous event, for example, or an inevitable outcome of the world’s unquenchable thirst for more and more oil, and a big public company’s hunger for higher profit, more and more quickly? Was the sub-prime debacle a surprising development, or the inescapable outgrowth of a race among large financial institutions to run up profits by creating and selling a product — deceptively packaged mortgages — to customers who couldn’t reasonably afford them? Were the flaws in recent cars produced by Toyota — a company that built its brand on reliability — anything more than a predictable consequence of ramping up production to manufacture more cars, more quickly to earn more money, faster? The complexity of the problems we’re facing is growing, but our capacity to meet them is diminishing, precisely because we’re moving so fast. We feel compelled to push ourselves harder and more continuously, so we’re sleeping less, resting less, sitting at our desks for longer, moving and exercising less, eating fast foods faster, and becoming fatter and less healthy. In the face of relentlessly rising demand, we feel constant pressure to get more done. Seduced by the new technologies, we juggle multiple activities to try to keep up. We’re partially engaged in many things, but rarely fully engaged in anything. By splitting our attention, we sacrifice the qualities we need most: absorbed focus, reflectiveness, creativity and the capacity to think big picture. Calmness is critical to being able to think clearly and deeply. Instead, feeling stretched and stressed and pushed, we increasingly fuel ourselves with adrenalin, noradrenalin, and cortisol. These “fight or flight” hormones not only wreak havoc on our bodies, but also progressively shut down our prefrontal cortex so we’re more reactive, impulsive and focused on our immediate survival rather than thinking long-term. The way we’re working — and living — is unsustainable. We can’t remain numb to the consequences of the way we’re living indefinitely. Unfortunately, we remain in a shared conspiracy of denial because we don’t want to face the sacrifice, pain, and change that recognizing our limits would require. So what has to change to make us wake up? What will it take for our employers — and us — to connect the dots between the way we’re working, and the accidents, breakdowns, and disastrous business choices and practices that occur with increasing frequency? Sadly, I suspect the answer is pain. Change rarely occurs until the pain — and the costs — of our current behaviors exceeds our fear of doing something new and different. We can’t change what we don’t notice, so awareness is the first step. What if you set aside a specific time every week to get off the treadmill you’re on? What if you stopped juggling tasks, quieted down, put away your technology, and took some time to reflect on the consequences of the choices you’re making? What would it look like to move from “more, bigger, faster” to “richer, deeper and more satisfying?” Try taking the audit that follows below for starters. It will tell you a lot about whether you’re building your capacity, or draining it. A version of this post appeared originally on HBR.org

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Robert Reich: We’re in a One-and-a-Half Dip Recession

July 21, 2010

We’re not in a double-dip recession yet. We’re in a one and a half dip recession. Consumer confidence is down. Retail sales are down. Home sales are down. Permits for single-family starts are down. The average work week is down. The only things not down are inventories — unsold stuff is piling up in warehouses and inventories of unsold homes are rising — and defaults on loans. The 1.5 dip recession should be causing alarm bells to ring all over official Washington. It should cause deficit hawks to stop squawking about future debt, blue-dog Democrats to stop acting like Republicans, and mainstream Democrats to get some backbone. The 1.5 dip recession should cause the president to demand a large-scale national jobs program including a new WPA that gets millions of Americans back to work even if government has to pay their wages directly. Included would be zero-interest loans to strapped states and locales, so they didn’t have to cut vital services and raise taxes. They could repay when the economy picked up and revenues came in. The national jobs program would also include a one-year payroll tax holiday on the first $20,000 of income. The president should stop talking and acting on anything else — not the deficit, not energy, not the environment, not immigration, not implementing the health care law, not education. He should make the whole upcoming mid-term election a national referendum on putting Americans back to work, and his jobs bill. Are you for it or against it? But none of this is happening. The hawks and blue dogs are still commanding the attention. Herbert Hoover’s ghost seems to have captured the nation’s capital. We’re back to 1932 (or 1937) and the prevailing sentiment is government can’t and mustn’t do anything but aim to reduce the deficit, even though the economy is going down. It looks like there’ll be an extension of unemployment benefits. (If it weren’t for the human suffering involved, I wish the Republicans had been forced to filibuster that bill all summer and show the nation just how much they care about people without jobs.) But the fiscal stimulus resulting from this will be tiny. Jobless benefits are humane but they alone don’t get jobs back. And what about the Fed? It’s the last game in town. The 1.5 dip recession should cause Ben Bernanke to revert to buying mortgage-backed securities, buying Treasury bills, buying anything that will get more money into circulation. But the Fed chair continues to talk about pulling money out of the system and raising short-term rates as the economy improves. During Wednesday’s appearance before Congress he made it clear monetary policy won’t be loosened; it just won’t be tightened for a while. And he reiterated that deficits were “unsustainable.” He admitted unemployment would probably remain high for a long time, and the likelihood of growth was “weighted to the downside,” which in Fed-Speak means we’re still in trouble. And he said the Fed still has the tools to do what’s needed if the economy needs more help. But would he use the tools now? No. “We need to look at them carefully to make sure we’re comfortable with any steps that we take.” This is like the captain of the Titanic looking carefully at his lifeboats to make sure he’s comfortable with using them as the ship starts sinking. This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org .

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New Home Construction Falls To Lowest Level Since October

July 20, 2010

WASHINGTON — Home construction plunged last month to the lowest level since October as the economy remained weak and demand for housing plummeted. But driving the June decline was a more than 20 percent drop in condominium and apartment construction, which makes up a small but volatile portion of the housing market. Construction of single-family homes, the largest part of the market, was down slightly. It dropped 0.7 percent. Overall, construction of new homes and apartments in June fell 5 percent from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 549,000, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. May’s figure was revised downward to 578,000. One bright area of the report was an increase in building permit applications, which are a sign of future activity. They rose 2.1 percent from a month earlier to an annual rate of 586,000, however this was also driven by apartment construction. A slumping job market and competition from foreclosed properties have forced builders to limit construction, especially after tax credits that spurred sales expired at the end of April. “The housing market remains the Achilles heel of the recovery,” said M. Cary Leahey, a senior economist at Decision Economics. “It is hard to imagine confidence recovering to healthy levels until the housing market experiences much less distress.” The lackluster housing report contributed to an early sell-off on Wall Street. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 120 points in morning trading. In a typical economic recovery, the construction sector provides much of the fuel. Not this time. While developers have cut back on construction and the number of new homes on the market has fallen dramatically, they still must compete against foreclosed homes selling at deep discounts. Builders may be turning their attention away from new projects to complete those already in progress. Housing completions rose 26.2 percent in June, noted John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros, economists at RDQ Economics. That could be a positive sign for future activity. “Our best guess is that housing construction activity continues to bottom out at low levels and that we will see some very modest growth in the second half of the year in new housing construction,” they said in a note to clients. Still, builders have been feeling increasingly pessimistic of late. The National Association of Home Builders said Monday that its monthly reading of builders’ sentiment about the housing market sank to 14 – the lowest level since March 2009. Readings below 50 indicate negative sentiment about the market. Each new home built creates, on average, the equivalent of three jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in taxes paid to local and federal authorities, according to the builders’ trade group. The impact appears in multiple industries, from makers of faucets and kitchen appliances to lumber yards. The rate of home building is still up about 15 percent from the bottom in April 2009, though it’s down 76 percent from the last decade’s peak in January 2006. New home sales in May dropped 33 percent to the slowest pace in the 47 years records have been kept. The drop-off came immediately after the tax incentives to sign a contract on a home ended on April 30. .

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Inder Sidhu: Profiles in Doing Both: The View That Changed Television

July 19, 2010

Later this year, two TV legends, Oprah Winfrey and Larry King, will sign off for the final time. Given their recent ratings, it’s probably for the best. So far this year, King’s ratings have fallen by more than 40 percent . The Queen of Daytime Talk has also seen better days. In June, Winfrey’s ratings dipped to their lowest level ever. While superstars continue to attract viewers on other networks, the struggles of these megawatt personalities underscore how difficult it is for an individual to command the attention of millions of fans year after year, in good times and bad. But the news isn’t all bad in talk shows. The ensemble cast of ABC’s The View is changing daytime TV . Unlike other programs that showcase the talents of one or two mega-stars, The View ushered in a new era where critical issues are discussed and dissected by a panel of contributors. Though rarely seamless, their combined delivery is almost always entertaining. “We’re political, funny and still very smart and extremely relevant,” says co-host and co-executive producer Barbara Walters . If you don’t know The View, it boasts superstars in TV news legend Walters and Oscar, Tony, Emmy and Grammy award-winning actress Whoopi Goldberg . Rounding out the cast are comedian Joy Behar, actress Sherri Shepherd and conservative commentator Elisabeth Hasselbeck . Together, they were honored in 2009 with an Emmy for Best Daytime Talk Show Hosts. For 60 minutes each morning, these women debate everything from major world events to the latest celebrity gossip. When they speak–often over one another or in roundtable interviews–they pull no punches. No topic is too sacred or too sensitive. Instead of cooking tips or fashion makeovers, the hosts of The View tackle everything from the iPhone 4 to torture . And critics and viewers alike love what they do. In 2009 and 2010, ratings climbed to their highest point since the show went on the air in 1997. So how do five people from different backgrounds, political persuasions and generations collaborate so successfully? They do what a lot of successful sports teams and corporations do: They nurture both individual superstars and the collective team, generating results that neither could achieve on their own. Take Walters, for example. The first female TV news anchor in U.S. history, Walters has interviewed presidents, kings and sheiks ranging from Richard Nixon to Fidel Castro. Her hard-news background lends credibility to The View. And the others lend it broad relevance. Hasselbeck, for example, is an outspoken critic of left-leaning politics and socially progressive lifestyles. Her presence on the show attracts guests that might otherwise avoid the show. But thanks to her input, The View provides balanced programming, attracting a wider audience. Each member of the team brings her respective strengths to bear. Behar, for example, conducts most of the guest interviews, while Shepherd provides comic relief in tense moments. By leveraging the output of its superstar performers and maximizing the contributions of its collective team, The View has bucked the downward trend in daytime viewership. But the work has not been easy. It took years for the show to find the right combination of stars and role players–and a lot of pain, too. Former co-host Rosie O’Donnell quit The View in 2007 after repeatedly sparring with her peers, especially Hasselbeck. A star in her own right, O’Donnell didn’t mesh well with the ensemble cast and the show suffered as a result. Since the O’Donnell debacle, the show’s producers have worked to find the right combination of stars to build a truly unique team. The team is now so strong that it now relies less on daily guests, turning instead to the popular–and intense–roundtable discussions. By nurturing both individuals and the team, The View has reached more people than ever before. Doing both has not only lifted the fortunes of ABC, but changed the way we see TV. Inder Sidhu is the Senior Vice President of Strategy & Planning for Worldwide Operations at Cisco , and the author of Doing Both: How Cisco Captures Today’s Profits and Drives Tomorrow’s Growth . Follow Inder on Twitter at @indersidhu .

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Charles Gasparino: Lloyd Blankfein’s Days Are Numbered as Chairman of Goldman Sachs

July 16, 2010

It’s a testament to the odd world in which we live that when a Wall Street firm pays a $550 million fine by conceding negligence in how it dealt with clients, its stock surges, adding billions of dollars in market value for the firm’s shareholders. But that’s what’s happening to Goldman Sachs, as it reached its long awaited settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission over how it sold a basket of mortgage related debt to investors in 2007. Back when the SEC brought the case, the conventional wisdom on Wall Street and the financial media was that Goldman didn’t have to settle — the case was weak and Goldman is, after all, Goldman. As I wrote on these page back then, Goldman would have to settle because: (a) the SEC dug up some real questionable activity; and (b) no Wall Street firm, not even one with the ties to government that Goldman possesses can go to war with its primary regulator. Now that Goldman has indeed settled, the news is being spun, again mostly by the financial media, that the deal with the SEC was a victory for Goldman’s CEO Lloyd Blankfein, who survived the investigation largely unscathed, paying a measly $550 million to the government (equivalent to a few days trading gains at Goldman) and without having to give up any power, such as relinquishing his role as chairman of the board, as senior executives both inside Goldman and at competing firms believed would be part of any settlement. Well, if history is any guide, Blankfein may not go tomorrow, or even next month, but sometime in 2011, Blankfein will at the very least no longer be chairman of Goldman, and may also be forced out of the firm altogether. If you don’t believe me ask former Citigroup CEO Sandy Weill. Like Blankfein, Weill (at least on paper) was a good CEO from an operational standpoint. Following the creation of Citigroup in 1998, shares of the big bank soared. The bank was what’s known as a Wall Street darling for its strong earnings and a surging stock price, and Weill was regarded as the King of Wall Street, having engineered the largest financial deal ever when he merged his company, the Travelers Group brokerage, insurance and investment banking empire, with commercial banking powerhouse Citicorp. At the height of his power, Weill suddenly popped up on the radar screen of New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer. Before Spitzer got involved with hookers and became a TV host, he was the sheriff of Wall Street, looking to right wrongs from the last great scandal, the internet bubble where firms sold worthless dotcom and tech stocks to unsuspecting investors. Emails he uncovered showed that Weill at least did something stupid, if not fraudulent: He pressured an analyst, Jack Grubman, to inflate his stock rating on telecom giant AT&T, which was an investment banking client (Weill also sat on AT&T’s board, while AT&T CEO Michael Armstrong sat on Citi’s board) Grubman wrote in an email that as a favor for upgrading the stock, Weill got his kids in an exclusive pre-school. The scandal, was described by the Wall Street Journal , as a “kid pro quo.” Weill continued to deny wrongdoing and was never charged. Citigroup, however, was charged with fraud and ended up paying a $400 fine to settle the matter, but Weill appeared to have retained his control of the bank. The initial reaction in the press and among his peers in the financial business was that Weill had won, by having the bank pay a relatively small fine, and his status as CEO and the King of Wall Street secure. Not quite. A few months later, Citigroup announced that Weill was stepping down as CEO, handing that job to Chuck Prince, who basically negotiated the settlement package. Citigroup maintained that the two moves were unrelated. But people in Spitzer’s office told me they really weren’t: While negotiating the settlement, Citigroup’s board made it clear to investigators that Weill’s days were numbered at the top of the firm that he founded. Spitzer was merely affording Weill a graceful exit in an effort to end the case. Full disclosure: I have no knowledge that Goldman’s board has tacitly agreed to pull a Weill on Blankfein and has plans for him to step aside, but the circumstances involving the two men are so remarkably similar. While Blankfein wasn’t directly involved in the questionable trade that landed Goldman in trouble, he is responsible for remaking Goldman into predatory trading culture that has caught the attention of regulators, Congressional committees (recall Sen. Carl Levin badgering Goldman traders for selling “shitty” investments to their clients) and hurt Goldman’s once stellar reputation, as Weill’s actions hurt Citigroup’s. Some would say that’s where the comparisons end; Citigroup deals with the general public that buys stocks through its brokerage unit (Smith Barney) and makes deposits in its branch banking offices. Goldman deals with large sophisticated investors who couldn’t care less how Darwinian the company behaves. That used to be true, but no more. Goldman’s image has been battered, not as bad as say a company like BP, but not far behind. And image does count these days given the scrutiny and oversight placed on Wall Street and the banks following the financial collapse-induced bailouts. Now that financial reform has been passed, Goldman will have to cut back on some of that aggressive trading that powered its earnings and was Blankfein’s forte. That means it will have to devote more and more resources to developing its client business and relationships, convincing blue chip companies that it is the right firm to handle delicate negotiations involving mergers, acquisitions, and other corporate financing assignments. More and more, these clients do care about image (ask yourself why has so many top companies embraced the useless but politically correct “green agenda”). In fact some have already jettisoned Goldman as scrutiny of the firm grew over the past year. Who is the right guy to change Goldman’s image to fit the new paradigm it faces? It’s not Lloyd Blankfein and that’s why he won’t survive.

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Charles Gasparino: Lloyd Blankfein’s Days Are Numbered as Chairman of Goldman Sachs

July 16, 2010

It’s a testament to the odd world in which we live that when a Wall Street firm pays a $550 million fine by conceding negligence in how it dealt with clients, its stock surges, adding billions of dollars in market value for the firm’s shareholders. But that’s what’s happening to Goldman Sachs, as it reached its long awaited settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission over how it sold a basket of mortgage related debt to investors in 2007. Back when the SEC brought the case, the conventional wisdom on Wall Street and the financial media was that Goldman didn’t have to settle — the case was weak and Goldman is, after all, Goldman. As I wrote on these page back then, Goldman would have to settle because: (a) the SEC dug up some real questionable activity; and (b) no Wall Street firm, not even one with the ties to government that Goldman possesses can go to war with its primary regulator. Now that Goldman has indeed settled, the news is being spun, again mostly by the financial media, that the deal with the SEC was a victory for Goldman’s CEO Lloyd Blankfein, who survived the investigation largely unscathed, paying a measly $550 million to the government (equivalent to a few days trading gains at Goldman) and without having to give up any power, such as relinquishing his role as chairman of the board, as senior executives both inside Goldman and at competing firms believed would be part of any settlement. Well, if history is any guide, Blankfein may not go tomorrow, or even next month, but sometime in 2011, Blankfein will at the very least no longer be chairman of Goldman, and may also be forced out of the firm altogether. If you don’t believe me ask former Citigroup CEO Sandy Weill. Like Blankfein, Weill (at least on paper) was a good CEO from an operational standpoint. Following the creation of Citigroup in 1998, shares of the big bank soared. The bank was what’s known as a Wall Street darling for its strong earnings and a surging stock price, and Weill was regarded as the King of Wall Street, having engineered the largest financial deal ever when he merged his company, the Travelers Group brokerage, insurance and investment banking empire, with commercial banking powerhouse Citicorp. At the height of his power, Weill suddenly popped up on the radar screen of New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer. Before Spitzer got involved with hookers and became a TV host, he was the sheriff of Wall Street, looking to right wrongs from the last great scandal, the internet bubble where firms sold worthless dotcom and tech stocks to unsuspecting investors. Emails he uncovered showed that Weill at least did something stupid, if not fraudulent: He pressured an analyst, Jack Grubman, to inflate his stock rating on telecom giant AT&T, which was an investment banking client (Weill also sat on AT&T’s board, while AT&T CEO Michael Armstrong sat on Citi’s board) Grubman wrote in an email that as a favor for upgrading the stock, Weill got his kids in an exclusive pre-school. The scandal, was described by the Wall Street Journal , as a “kid pro quo.” Weill continued to deny wrongdoing and was never charged. Citigroup, however, was charged with fraud and ended up paying a $400 fine to settle the matter, but Weill appeared to have retained his control of the bank. The initial reaction in the press and among his peers in the financial business was that Weill had won, by having the bank pay a relatively small fine, and his status as CEO and the King of Wall Street secure. Not quite. A few months later, Citigroup announced that Weill was stepping down as CEO, handing that job to Chuck Prince, who basically negotiated the settlement package. Citigroup maintained that the two moves were unrelated. But people in Spitzer’s office told me they really weren’t: While negotiating the settlement, Citigroup’s board made it clear to investigators that Weill’s days were numbered at the top of the firm that he founded. Spitzer was merely affording Weill a graceful exit in an effort to end the case. Full disclosure: I have no knowledge that Goldman’s board has tacitly agreed to pull a Weill on Blankfein and has plans for him to step aside, but the circumstances involving the two men are so remarkably similar. While Blankfein wasn’t directly involved in the questionable trade that landed Goldman in trouble, he is responsible for remaking Goldman into predatory trading culture that has caught the attention of regulators, Congressional committees (recall Sen. Carl Levin badgering Goldman traders for selling “shitty” investments to their clients) and hurt Goldman’s once stellar reputation, as Weill’s actions hurt Citigroup’s. Some would say that’s where the comparisons end; Citigroup deals with the general public that buys stocks through its brokerage unit (Smith Barney) and makes deposits in its branch banking offices. Goldman deals with large sophisticated investors who couldn’t care less how Darwinian the company behaves. That used to be true, but no more. Goldman’s image has been battered, not as bad as say a company like BP, but not far behind. And image does count these days given the scrutiny and oversight placed on Wall Street and the banks following the financial collapse-induced bailouts. Now that financial reform has been passed, Goldman will have to cut back on some of that aggressive trading that powered its earnings and was Blankfein’s forte. That means it will have to devote more and more resources to developing its client business and relationships, convincing blue chip companies that it is the right firm to handle delicate negotiations involving mergers, acquisitions, and other corporate financing assignments. More and more, these clients do care about image (ask yourself why has so many top companies embraced the useless but politically correct “green agenda”). In fact some have already jettisoned Goldman as scrutiny of the firm grew over the past year. Who is the right guy to change Goldman’s image to fit the new paradigm it faces? It’s not Lloyd Blankfein and that’s why he won’t survive.

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Jack Myers: Ten Rules for Improved Response to E-Mails and Invitations

July 13, 2010

Republished from Jack Myers Media Business Report-4/12/10 Are your e-mails being ignored and phones calls not returned? Are you inviting clients to your events, parties and presentations and not receiving the simple courtesy of a response… not even a simple “no thank you?” Here are my Ten Rules for Improved Response to E-Mails and Invitations — ideas to improve the effectiveness of your communications and generate increased response to your e-mails and invitations. 1. Get to the point immediately. Include a clear message in the e-mail subject line and get immediately to the point in the first line of your message. Don’t beat around the bush or include extraneous background and introductory information. 2. Assume your message is being filtered by an assistant. Explain why your message is important and relevant. Assume the person reading it does not know you, does not know your company, and is responsible for deleting your message rather than passing it along. Incorporate an issue or opportunity of clear importance to your target and make a compelling case for its relevance. 3. Ask for a response. In Outlook, under “View” and “Message Options,” you can “Request a delivery receipt for this message,” and “Request a read receipt for this message.” While most people simply ignore these requests, you are inserting one more step into the process and sending a small warning signal to assistants and others before they delete or simply ignore an e-mail message. You’re also increasing the odds that you’ll at least know if your message has been received and opened. Additionally, if you receive no response, it provides an excuse to send a follow-up e-mail pointing out your first message was apparently never received. 4. Communicate simultaneously through multiple outlets. If you send an e-mail, reach out simultaneously through LinkedIn and Facebook, if available. Use those supplemental media to reinforce that you’ve sent an e-mail invitation or request to their standard e-mail address and are taking the liberty of also reaching out through their Facebook and/or LinkedIn because you know they are inundated and want to be sure they see your message. Reserve this strategy for important messages and communications. 5. Use Facebook, LinkedIn and Plaxo Outreach If your targets are registered in one or more of the social networks, reach out and invite them to become a friend/contact. While your invitation might be ignored or rejected, it’s one more way to register your interest in a relationship and one more opportunity to communicate. Always include a personal message with your request, explaining your connection and why you are extending an invitation. 6. Use a Cause Related Connection By doing a Google or Bing search on your target, and reading available bios and social media profiles, you can often identify a charity, organization or cause that your target supports. Within your message, incorporate an offer to make a contribution to the organization as “thank you” for their support, for joining you at an event, and/or for sharing their feedback. 7. Find a common connection. If you can identify a common friend or colleague, use that connection to facilitate an introduction. Reach out to mutual associates, explain your interest and request, and ask them to make an introduction or give you permission to use their name in your e-mail. Never use a common connection unless you have permission and know the relationship means something to your target. If you have their permission, use your colleague’s name in the subject line and explain the connection in the first line of the e-mail and why you reached out for an introduction. Always copy your colleague. 8. Impose Responsibility It’s okay to occasionally impose some guilt and let your targets (and especially their assistants) know that you’ve been asked by your boss – or have some form of responsibility — to reach out to them. Ask your target to accept responsibility for what is basically doing their job by learning about an opportunity or offer. Ask them to acknowledge with a response that they at least know of your company’s interest in a relationship. “I’ve been asked by my boss, so and so, to reach out to you and arrange a meeting so we can introduce you to our new service that has been designed especially with you and your company in mind. My performance is being judged in part by my success in arranging a meeting and ultimately delivering to you a service that I believe will be valuable to your company. I know your success is also determined in part by identifying valuable new resources and I’m very confident our meeting will be worthwhile. Can we please schedule a meeting in the next 60-days or, if not, please advise me how to best communicate with someone within your company who can review our proposal. It’s important to me to develop a relationship with (company) and I’d appreciate your feedback.” When you employ this strategy, copy your boss. 9. Copy your target’s boss. If you are not having success breaking through the clutter and capturing the attention of your target, copy their boss. There are many tactics for generating a response and this one needs to be used judiciously and cautiously. In some instances, the message can be sent to the boss and copied to your target, or sent to both. Here’s an example that’s targeted to Robin Young through her boss Anne. “Dear Anne. I’m reaching out to invite you and/or your colleague, Robin Young, to join us for a special private luncheon and meeting with our CEO.” The outreach can be followed up with a phone call to Anne’s office that should either result in a meeting with Anne (best case scenario) or result in a directive from Anne’s office to contact Robin directly. This then empowers you to follow up with Robin’s office and to get through the assistant’s blockade by using the boss’ imprimatur. 10. Use snail mail If you have an important invitation, question or opportunity, send a personal letter – even hand written. If handwritten, use a printed personalized message card. Assuming it’s a “typed” letter, use formal business design with your company logo and appropriate salutations. It’s good to include “From the desk of (name).” Because snail mail letters are often from charitable organizations or are direct mail pieces, accelerate the “snail” mail to “absolutely has to get attention mail” by sending it via Federal Express or UPS. Either fold the letter and place it inside an addressed envelope, ideally marked “Personal,” or place the letter unfolded in the envelope. If you’re sending an invitation, it’s often a good idea to include a stamped response card that requires minimal RSVP effort. If you’re a seller, more than 80% of your business communications typically results in no response. You need to resort to extraordinary measures to break through the clutter and increase the odds of a positive response – or any response. The above ideas and recommendations can help. Share your ideas, experiences and recommendations by commenting at http://www.jackmyers.com/commentary/jackmyers-think-tank/98245919.html . To communicate with or to be contacted by the executives and/or companies mentioned in this column, please email your information and the column headline to Jack directly at jm@jackmyers.com . This post originally appeared at JackMyers.com.

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Christine Negroni: Pinnacle to Colgan: Your Name is Mud

July 12, 2010

An airline’s pilots are its most public representatives, so when a captain makes headlines as a collector of child pornography of record-breaking size, that’s a public relations problem. What I’m hearing is that when it comes to Colgan Airlines it may be insurmountable.

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Marty Robins: Keep Your Eye on the Ball… When Legislating!

July 9, 2010

Every child learning a sport is admonished to ‘ keep your eye on the ball !’ This advice has worked well for generations — witness the huge contracts for A-rod, Mark Texeria, LeBron, Amar’e Stoudamire, etc., not to mention the earnings of Tiger, Phil and their cohorts on the PGA Tour. Even one of my golfing buddies is quick to tell me after a bad (every?) shot: “You picked up your head!” If only our lawmakers and regulators were told the same! A look around the Washington scene in recent months indicates too many ‘power players’ who have used up their mulligans with forays into peripheral matters which do not benefit the country , while ignoring critical matters. The endless focus on social issues — guns, abortion, gay rights — is a perfect example of politicians obsessing over issues that, while they prompt great interest from a few, have little or nothing to do with the masses. Not a single job has ever been created by allowing or preventing a gay marriage or DADT in the military, yet at a time of huge economic dislocation, gay rights are a hot topic at every turn, whether in the Kagan hearings or directly with respect to military policy. Similarly, one hears a great deal from the political class about the implications of last week’s SCOTUS decision in the Chicago gun case ( McDonald ), but very little outside academic circles on the same day’s decision in the business method patent case ( Bilski ), despite the latter having a major impact on innovation in our economy and the former being irrelevant to the economy and unlikely to be of much significance in the big picture with respect to anti-crime efforts. Immigration is another topic which, while of genuine significance in southern border states, has little impact upon Americans elsewhere, but occupies a disproportionate share of the attention of the political class. In debates, the issue is so often presented as central to our physical and financial security when in reality it is neither. There is not a single documented case of an immigrant from the Western Hemisphere being involved in any crime which threatens our national security (i.e. apart from “ordinary” street crime) while there is little impact upon public services outside the border states and many jobs taken by illegal immigrants going begging. The issue certainly deserves attention on account of its impact on the border states, but in the appropriate context, and not as something which impacts the country as a whole like unemployment and terrorism. More fundamentally, when one looks at a summary of the financial regulation bill which has just emerged from the conference committee, and was intended by all to reduce the likelihood of another meltdown, one is struck by the abundance of unrelated matters which are addressed and the total absence of any mention of Fannie or Freddie or the Community Reinvestment Act, which were undoubtedly major factors in the plethora of bad loans . At bottom, there is general agreement as to the principal factor in our financial crisis being the incurrence of excessive debt — mainly, but not exclusively real estate related — by individuals and businesses. Yet the 2000 page bill, while it addresses this topic to some extent, by requiring verification of information presented in residential mortgage applications and limiting incentives to steer consumers into products which have been used in a predatory manner, and reforming credit rating agency practice, goes off the rails to address a multitude of topics which are not pertinent to the stability of the financial system. Perhaps the most glaring example is the new limitation on fees which may be charged by banks to merchants for credit or debit card transactions. This matter is as relevant to economic stability as the use of the designated hitter in MLB, but has been made a key piece of the “reform” bill. Of course, any DH who takes his eyes off the ball like our law makers, would not be a DH for long! We also see increased regulation of derivative securities trading, which may be defensible to the extent it impacts speculative activity, but as reported in the WSJ lead editorial of 7-6-10, will have a major impact on “end users” who are using such securities to reduce their risk and had nothing to do with the financial meltdown. There is extensive discussion of the new consumer protection agency and provisions which are intended to “ensure American consumers get the clear, accurate information they need to shop for mortgages, credit cards and other financial products, and protect them from hidden fees, ….” Indeed the bill is known as the “Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act “. [emphasis added] Disclosure and consumer protection are beneficial in themselves, but the debt levels which we see are not the result of misleading information or high fees; they are the result of foolhardy, but voluntary decisions. Witness the problems in the commercial real estate sector, where sophisticated operators — who presumably knew what they were doing — made the same mistakes as Joe Sixpack. In any event, credit cards were not a major factor in the meltdown. Without dealing directly with irresponsible lending and borrowing, reliance on disclosure is insufficient. Similarly, the new bill includes extensive regulation around derivatives trading and proprietary trading by financial institutions despite the fact that there is little or no evidence that such trading directly or indirectly caused the problems. While institutions which got into trouble and were bailed out may have engaged in such trading, the underlying problem was the debt behind such securities and not their packaging. The bill also focuses on financial institution size in an effort to avoid ‘too big to fail’ situations. Laudable perhaps, but off target again: the problems are a function of poor management of large institutions and not their size per se. However, nothing is done directly about management and poor decision-making in large or small firms. Efforts to improve management accountability through enhanced proxy access and say on pay votes, while useful, do not attack the ultimate issue in the same manner as direct efforts to improve corporate governance. A mulligan (or 7) won’t have much impact on my golf score, but as a nation, we’ve used up our allotment and need to insist that our policy-makers always keep their eye on the ball.

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Karen Luniw: Breaking Through the Ceiling

July 8, 2010

Ever have those moments (sometimes days, weeks, months or years?) where it doesn’t matter what you do, you don’t feel like you’re moving forward? These can be absolutely excruciating, especially if the time frame drags on. It almost feels like there is an invisible ceiling holding you back from climbing upward. Certainly in the corporate world, the glass ceiling has often been referred to as the invisible, not-to-be-talked about, barrier which women often don’t move past when it comes to parity in wages and movement upward to high level management roles. Actually, you don’t even have to work in an office corporate environment to have witnessed this in one’s life. I had this surprising experience early on in life before my first year of college. I was working a few summer jobs, one being at a gas station. I was, let’s say, second in command and when my boss left — it was assumed by many that I would move into the lead role along with a pay raise. When another person was hired to help — I showed him the ropes and taught him what he needed to know to do the job. Come payday, I found out he was making 25 cents more per hour!! I trained him, and he was getting paid more! While extremely frustrating, it was also a fantastic lesson. It taught me that you have to ask for what you want. You have to be clear. Now, as I work with my coaching clients — the other thing that needs to be done is ensure that you’re not sending out mixed signals . What I find that happens over and over is that many of us become ADD when it comes to our goals in business and in life. One moment, we’re gung-ho, absolutely focused on one amazing goal and in the next moment, we get side-tracked by fear and doubt or something shiny and new that completely shifts our attention to the new thing that we now focus on. Hmmm, sound familiar? It’s kind of like this… you set a sales target for yourself or your company. You get excited about it at the beginning of the month and your focus is completely on this target. As the month winds down and it’s now the 15th, you find yourself getting a little worried and a little doubtful. The state of the economy becomes the scapegoat and you start to get dizzy as you start spinning around pointing the finger at all the reasons your sales target isn’t working out. As the doubt creeps in a bit more, you start to adjust your sales target downward… to be realistic. As we continue to send out mixed signals of doubt and worry, I can guarantee you that you’ll get mixed signals back. Just like me when I was working at the gas station, I had no intention of staying there past September and so while I sent out the signal that I wanted to make more money and take on the lead job — I also was sending out the signal that I wasn’t interested in staying. While these look like completely different scenarios, the mechanics behind them is the exact same… sending out mixed signals. The next thing about ‘the ceiling’ is that EVERYONE hits it at some point. Whenever we’re wanting to take the next step up in our business or life evolution, we’re going to hit blocks. Most of those blocks will be located between our ears. (I wonder if that’s where the term blockhead comes from?… Nah…) And, you know what, that’s absolutely normal and okay. However, it’s not the easiest thing to figure out. These blocks will show up in all kinds of different scenarios often on the outside of us and seem completely logical. As long we let this continue, nothing changes for us and months and sometimes years go by without much change. Sure, we might experience some slight movement upward and then, not long after, we’ll see a shift downward again. This can be changed with some vigilance in your focus. Not allowing doubt to enter your field is mandatory. Getting others on your team to help you will also work. Don’t accept the status quo as your lot in life or that you should just feel lucky to have going on what you have going on. Of course, while you must be grateful — don’t make that an excuse to not move forward! Go forward, break through the ceiling — be bold!!! Remember, if you want this to be easier, contact me and we can work together to make this process easier, faster and with great results!! Karen Luniw is the author of Attraction in Action: Your How to Guide to Relationships, Money, Work and Health and is a coach who helps people break through blocks in their personal and business lives. For inspiration, check out her Top 10 Law of Attraction Tips for 2010 movie. There are huge clues in the movie to help you move further towards your goals.

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Paul Kedrosky: Software Patents Need to Be Abolished

July 7, 2010

Co-authored by Brad Feld The U.S. Supreme Court just blinked. In the landmark Bilski v. Kappos decision announced yesterday, the Court had a chance to right a patent wrong. It didn’t. Instead, in a cautious and internally contradictory decision, it further fuzzified the mess that is the U.S. patent system — and it will have sad consequences for innovation in this country. It was terrible timing for a loss of legal nerve. For all the attention given this case’s decision — and some patent law blogs had turned its release into something like the final episode of LOST, complete with countdown — the underlying case was easily decided. It had to do with whether the plaintiff could patent a method for assessing and trading energy risk. This sort of vague nonsense is an easy lob to the high court, with Justices applauding one another for agreeing that trading energy risk shouldn’t be patented. If it was so easy, why was there so much interest? Because Bilski really stood for a much broader and more important issue. The real questions had to do with what limitations, if any, should be placed on a dangerously mutating U.S. patent system as it moves from its roots in materials, machines and the like into software, and into the very ways of doing business itself, like in Bilski. Patents have increasingly been granted in implausible areas never imagined by the framers of the U.S. Constitution or the legislators who drafted the Patent Act of 1952, like sending information over the Internet, or online courses, or even basic computer science concepts that have been around for 30 years or more. These expanded patents in the area of software and business methods are 99.9% nonsense. They fail the classic patenting criteria of being novel, useful, and non-obvious. They are also mostly contrary to the later interpretive overlay of passing the “machine or transformation” test, in which you might have been able to patent a new machine but you couldn’t patent an idea or algorithm, such as how you shopped for the machine. Far from encouraging innovation and advancement in the “useful arts,” as the Constitution originally envisioned and Congress wanted, software and business method patents have become a quasi-legal poison pill. Sometime it’s from patents obtained years after application via circuitous paths and bankrupt companies, and sometimes it’s straight-up planned extortion. Either way, these “patent trolls” lurk in the shadows, waiting for someone to unknowingly infringe. Then they sue in patent-plaintiff-friendly jurisdictions (of which there are ranked lists – we kid you not), forcing defendants, often small, unsophisticated companies, to settle rather than face the cost and uncertainty that defines litigating a patent case against a well-capitalized troll. The costs associated with this are immense, as is the innovation penalty. Software companies now must file defensive patents just to make sure that they are not later submarined by useless patents originating with patent attorneys themselves or at failed software companies. We have officially exited economics and entered Kafka’s courts. Startups are always on the financial edge with it taking very little to scare an investor or acquirer away. Patent protection is not an option when the time from engineering, to launch, to success or failure, is often a matter of months. Predatory patent trolls can stop all this innovation cold, preventing startups from obtaining capital, or forcing funded companies into protracted legal licensing battles over “inventions” that should never have been allowed patent protection in the first place. Why are we putting these roadblocks in the way of software startups, one of the most important job-creating engines in our economy? The mind boggles. In its Bilski decision, the Court nervously flitted about, footnoting away like a post-modern novelist. It upheld the lower court ruling, agreeing that risk trading isn’t patentable, but balked at saying anything more about patenting principles and ideas, while agreeing that maybe it should … you know, someday. It worried nervously about the “unanticipated consequences” of saying more, an embarrassing abdication of responsibility in the face of an economic and legal system desperate for clarity and guidance. It even partially undercut its own “machine and transformation” rule, before reaffirming it, sort of, in an another attached opinion. It throws the mess back into the hands of a dysfunctional U.S. Patent Office, the patent trolls, and the lawyers. Post-Bilski we are back to business as usual, with software patents a tax on innovation. Yes, yes, patents still may have some utility in areas like materials, biotechnology, and clean technology. When the timeline is long, the up-front capital costs are high, and the payoff is large, one can argue that patents encourage innovation. But the same is not true in fast-moving areas like software and business methods, where businesses are about rapid iteration with low capital intensity and prodigious speciation. It didn’t have to be this way. The Court missed an opportunity to provide invention clarity when this innovation-hungry economy needs it most. Instead, it muddied things, cited the same precedents that caused the problem, and essentially told those of us in the real business of creating software innovation and jobs, “Good luck with that” The Supreme Court could and should have done much, much better.

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Donna Flagg: Getting Respect in Management

July 7, 2010

I’ve seen it a lot and must say, I find it odd — ineffective managers struggling with the frustration of not being able to get their employees to perform the way they want them to and further, not knowing what to do about it. I can recall having conversations with my own direct reports over the years inquiring as to why things weren’t getting done or moving forward. They, in turn would complain that their staffers just didn’t give them the respect they “deserved.” It was such a distorted answer, and I got it all the time. For some reason, there was (and still is) an implicit assumption that because one person was “over” another, the “higher” person would automatically be treated with unconditional, unwavering deference. Maybe that was true during the agricultural and industrial ages, but even then, it wasn’t respect, it was control and those days are gone. In order to be effective, managers need to see the difference between deserving respect and earning it, because motivating someone has nothing to do with position and title, but rather how one behaves — period. That said, for managers who want respect, remember that it does not automatically come with the job. It’s the person, not the position that people admire. And it’s behavior, not title that impresses them to act. Consistency: You must be consistent. You can’t show one “face” to one group or level in the organization and another to the people who report to you. It screams “two-faced,” which quickly turns to lack of trust for anyone who witnesses it. Without trust, people will not feel safe working for you. As a result, you’ll get little from them and more likely, nothing at all. Fairness : Don’t play favorites. You must apply the same rules to everyone and give people the benefit of the doubt — equally. Freedom: Respect begets respect and trust begets trust. If you want people to trust and respect you, you must trust and respect them first. If you try to control people, they will resist your very presence. Healthy productive people don’t like to be constrained by someone who needs to exercise a false sense of power. So the next time you wonder why people aren’t listening to you, ask yourself what you’ve done lately to engage their attention. The belief that people should do something simply because “you’re the boss and you said so,” is just not enough.

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Mayberry Machiavellis: Obama Political Team Handcuffing Recovery

July 6, 2010

Under the leadership of President George W. Bush, science, empirical evidence and expert advice struggled to be heard above the din of politics. It’s one thing to prioritize politics over good policy; it’s quite another to let bad politics drive the agenda. But that’s what the Bush administration did during its Terry Schiavo era and his congressional majorities paid the price. Today, a new band of Mayberry Machiavellis has gained control, counseling President Obama to ignore the advice of his economic team and press forward with deficit reduction ahead of job creation. Senior White House adviser David Axelrod told the New York Times recently that “it’s my job to report what the public mood is.” The public mood, said Axelrod, is anti-spending and anti-deficit and so the smart politics is to alleviate those concerns. “I’ve made the point that as a matter of policy and a matter of politics that we need to focus on this, and the president certainly agrees with that,” said Axelrod of the deficit hawkery that the administration has engaged in over the last several months. It’s an odd political strategy because Axelrod knows that if it succeeds, it will be both bad policy and bad politics. He said as much when asked about the pressure from economic advisers to focus on stimulus and job creation. “I’m very much allied with the economic group, because even as a political matter it would be very shortsighted to take steps that would send us backward,” he said. But the Mayberries have already taken those steps: by using the bully pulpit to highlight deficit fears, by proposing an across-the-board spending freeze, by creating a commission to reduce the deficit and stacking it with hawks, by making it clear to progressive allies that the White House political team believes a deficit-reduction focus is important for the midterm elections. The one recent effort by the president to pressure Congress to move forward with jobs-related spending came in a letter sent on a Saturday evening that was met with derision on the Hill for its ham-handedness. The focus on deficits has consequences. Without White House backing of more stimulus, the House of Representatives has steadily hacked away at a jobs package that began as a several hundred billion dollar initiative and is now a shell of itself. The Senate, meanwhile, has repeatedly failed to break a GOP filibuster of extended unemployment insurance and a must-pass package of tax extenders faces the prospect of not passing. Axelrod’s political analysis — that “as a political matter it would be very shortsighted to take steps that would send us backward” — is confirmed by a recent survey that is being studied by both House Democrats and Republicans. The Democrats gathered on Thursday morning to dig into the national poll, which was paid for by the Alliance for American Manufacturing and done by Democrat Mark Mellman and Republican Whit Ayers. It hints at an answer to why people are so passionate when asked by pollsters about the deficit: It’s about jobs, China and American decline. If the job situation improves, worries about the deficit will dissipate. Asking whether Congress should address the deficit or the jobless crisis, therefore, is the wrong question. The survey finds extensive worry about U.S. indebtedness to China, which is seen as eclipsing America on the international stage, signaling the twilight of U.S. dominance and economic underperformance as the new status quo. “There’s no question in my mind that the intensity of concern about this problem is related to the overall economic picture,” said Mellman. The national debt and the deficit are both proxies for concern about the economic decline. “There’s very little understanding of the difference between the debt and the deficit,” said Mellman, who has briefed Democratic lawmakers on polling around the deficit. “When people are talking about the deficit and being concerned about the deficit, that’s really a metaphor for a whole lot of things in their mind: It’s about debt to China, it’s also about the waste of government money as far as they’re concerned, it’s about bailing out big corporations while their jobs are lost.” About 45 percent of respondents said the biggest problem is that “we are too deep in debt to China,” the highest-ranking concern, while 58 percent said the U.S. is no longer the strongest economy, with China being the overwhelming alternative identified by people. Three-quarters had an unfavorable view of goods made in China and 83 percent felt the same about companies that set up shop there. The number one objection people had to China was the $2 trillion the country holds in U.S. debt. Asked how to improve the economy, the number one solution provided by voters was to “crack down on foreign countries who violate their trade agreements with us.” Overwhelmingly, the survey found voters favored policies that encourage the revival of American manufacturing. As soon as the poll was released, Rep. Thad McCotter of Michigan, a member of Republican leadership, immediately sent it around to House colleagues, encouraging them to take a look. “We know what happens when the economy depends only on financial services and the creation of wealth through bookkeeping. Manufacturing jobs are good paying jobs that support families and communities, create spin-off jobs, and leads to innovation,” said Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), who has been pressing House colleagues to pay close attention to the poll on China and manufacturing. “We need to force China to play by the rules. We need to pass currency reform measures and develop a national strategy to boost small and mid-size manufacturers. We’ve spent the last 30 years pandering to those who have taken manufacturing off shore and in turn we lost the heart and soul of our country. We need to see ‘Made in the USA’ again.” White House political advisers, however, see the high numbers of respondents saying that the deficit is a major concern and think belt-tightening is needed. But Mellman said that part of the deficit concern reflected in polls is a natural bias of this type of survey. “When you ask people what they’re concerned about, they have to answer something,” he said. “At some level, the polling game is stacked.” Indeed, it feels selfish to tell a pollster that deficits aren’t a major concern. What about the children? The grandchildren? Yet when voters are asked to identify only one top concern, it is rarely the deficit. In April and June of this year, a CBS/New York Times poll found that only five percent of people mentioned the deficit as the “most important problem.” Nearly half identified the economy or jobs. That was no outlier, several other polls, when they limit the choice to a top concern, found similar results, including one from Fox News in May, which found 15 percent saying the deficit is “the most important” thing for government to work on, with 47 percent identifying jobs. In another recent survey , three quarters of respondents favored increased social spending over deficit cutting. “With unemployment close to ten percent and millions still out of work, it is too early to start cutting back benefits and health coverage for workers who lost their jobs,” said 74 percent of voters, while only 21 percent agreed with this statement: “With the federal deficit over one trillion dollars, it is time for the government to start reducing spending on health care subsidies and unemployment benefits for the unemployed.” Academics Benjamin Page and Lawrence Jacobs, in the recent paper, “Understanding Public Opinion on Deficits and Social Security,” have identified an additional reason that the deficit continues to rank high in polls as a prominent concern. “The ‘most important problem’ question responds heavily to whatever is being emphasized in the media, apparently because many respondents interpret it as asking what other people consider important,” they write. “They look to the media for evidence. So a well-organized and well-funded campaign against deficits (like the one led by Peter Peterson) can grab the attention of pundits and politicians, win coverage in the media, and produce a temporary spike in responses that deficits constitute our ‘most important problem.’” The more that the president highlights deficit concerns, the more concerned the public gets, and the more his advisers warn him that the public is concerned. For Mellman, deficit concerns stem from the suspicion that Washington spends money to help giant corporations but does little for regular people. “They’re particularly angry about those bailouts in the context where they see big corporations being saved and their own jobs being lost. Something’s being done for the big corporations but nothing’s being done for them,” said Mellman. “It also is true that simply letting thousands of teachers and police and firefighters be fired in the name of deficit reduction is not going to earn kudos from anyone. Voters are not going to stand up and say, ‘Great job!’… That’s not what they mean when they say they’re concerned about the deficit.” Investors, however, are apparently harder to influence. Sophisticated buyers of American debt see no crisis whatsoever. Investors are asking for about 2.96 percent interest from the U.S. government in order to buy 10-year Treasury bonds, a level near historic lows, according to data compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Ten years ago, investors demanded more than double that rate. For two-year bonds, they’re asking for rates below inflation. The federal government is paying investors 0.63 percent interest for two-year loans. Five years ago, the rate was about six times higher at 3.76 percent. Investor confidence in the solvency of the U.S. government is rooted in a reality that is rarely discussed in the media, in surveys or congressional debate. The dollar is the world’s central currency and the Federal Reserve has the ability to buy U.S. Treasury debt if demand for it slackens. Nations like Greece do not have that luxury. Fed purchasing of debt could ultimately lead to inflation, but inflation is a far different concern than sovereign insolvency. If inflation did kick in — a remote consideration given the global economic decline — the Fed has policy tools that can rein it in. Yet voters aren’t asked whether they’d prefer to extend unemployment insurance now and risk inflation down the road. Even the Congressional Budget Office, which specializes in raising the alarm about deficits, said in a recent report that if Congress follows current law, the budget deficit will largely evaporate in the long term. According to the CBO’s calculations, by 2034 the budget gap as a percentage of GDP will be 1.2 percent; by 2059 it’ll be 0.8 percent and fall to 0.7 percent by 2084. (The CBO doesn’t believe that Congress will follow current law, and released an “alternative” calculation with dire numbers.) Obama’s economic team — Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, Larry Summers, Christina Romer and other senior advisers — have also been pushing for more stimulus, warning that private demand is not yet sufficient to generate a robust recovery. One reason that investors, the economic team and the CBO analysts don’t see deep deficit problems is that, historically and relatively, U.S. debt is well within bounds. “Even after a decade of accumulating debt at a rapid pace, the U.S. would still face a lower debt burden than countries like Italy do today. Italy is currently able to borrow in financial markets at very low interest rates. Projections for 2020 show that the debt burden of the United States would still be less than half of the current debt burden of Japan, which still pays less than 2.0 percent interest on its long-term debt,” writes economist Dean Baker. The Obama political team’s focus on the deficit raises the question: Just who is this hypothetical midterm voter who was leading to the GOP because of deficit concerns, but will vote Democratic if only Congress trims a spending bill from, say, $250 billion down to $80 billion? Most voters — and most reporters, for that matter — can’t guess within a few hundred billion what the budget deficit is, and would struggle to put a dollar figure on the latest jobs-bill proposal. So how is it, then, that a voter would cheer saving a few billion dollars by cutting off COBRA subsidies? When voters think of spending and the deficit, said Mellman, they bundle together much bigger items than an unemployment insurance extension: the Wall Street bailout, the stimulus, the rescue of the auto companies and health care reform (which was deficit-neutral, according to the CBO, as if that matters to voters). Despite all of that spending, unemployment has hovered around ten percent, leading voters to assume and leaving Republicans to argue that the stimulus didn’t work. The reality is that it did save or create hundreds of thousands of jobs, if not millions, but was too small — as economists warned at the time — to fill the economic hole left by the housing collapse and financial crisis. The White House’s refusal to get behind the jobs effort in Congress makes it harder for Democrats to pin the delay on Republicans, muddling what could be a devastating message. It’s been 35 days since Congress allowed unemployment benefits for the long-term jobless to expire, the first time the body has done so with unemployment above eight percent. More than 1.7 million people and counting, who’ve been out of work for longer than six months, have been thrown off the rolls. Obama knows what he’s doing. Shortly after Inauguration, he met privately with House Republicans to hear their concerns, which boiled down to spending and the deficit. In response, Obama raised the specter of 1937, year President Franklin Roosevelt succumbed to conservative pressure and cut spending, leading, economists insist, to a renewal of the economic collapse that has been dubbed the “recession within the Depression,” according to several Republicans who were in the room. “In the middle ’30s — ’36, etc. — they were concerned about what was happening so they tightened their belts in terms of spending, and that caused a recession within the Depression, instead of keeping the momentum going,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said back in February of 2009. “We’re not going to let it happen again.” There was evidence during the campaign that Obama could have been the type of leader to keep that promise. In the spring of 2008, as oil prices started to soar and the public clamored for a gas tax holiday, presidential candidate Barack Obama broke with both his primary and general election opponents, rejecting the tax relief as pennywise policy that was pure political posturing. Eschewing politics turned out to be smart politics, as Obama left his opponents looking frivolous and craven. It was a defining moment for the campaign, one that senior advisers recall frequently — the time that Obama became truly presidential, became a leader. “The easiest thing in the world for a politician to do is tell you exactly what you want to hear,” said Obama at the time. With reporting by Shahien Nasiripour

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Tony Schwartz: Breaking Your Addiction to Email

July 6, 2010

Do you wake up in the morning and bring your laptop into bed with you, or check it before you brush your teeth? Do you check email while you’re driving, even though you’re four times as likely to have an accident when you do? Are you answering email on your iPhone or BlackBerry when you walk between meetings, or on your way to the parking lot? Do you keep answering while you’re sitting in your car in your driveway or garage when you get home? Do you bring your laptop into bed with you at night, and always make one final check before you turn out the lights? In May, I posted a poll here asking readers about their experience in the workplace. One of the questions was about email. More than 60 percent of you said you spend less than two waking hours a day completely disconnected from email. Twenty percent spend less than a half hour disconnected. Email has become our intravenous feeding tube. Two weeks ago, I gave a talk at a Fortune 100 company about the value of focusing on one thing at a time and the attentional costs of constant interruptions. When I was done, an articulate and ingenuous young man who worked in finance came up to me. “I believe everything you said,” he said, “but I can’t do it. If I get an email, I have to look at it.” “Have you considered just turning it off at certain times during the day?” I asked. “I don’t think I can,” he replied. “As soon as I turn it off, I’d start obsessing about what I’m missing.” It isn’t overload we’re battling anymore, it’s addiction — to action, to information, to connection, but above all to instant gratification. In the late 1960s, the psychologist Walter Mischel began conducting his famous “marshmallow” experiment . He placed a marshmallow in front of a succession of four-year-olds. Mischel told them they were free to eat the marshmallow simply by ringing a bell after he’d left the room. If they were able to wait until he returned, he told them they could have two marshmallows. Seventy percent of the children gave up in less than a minute. Only thirty percent were able to wait 15 minutes. Mischel termed marshmallows a “hot stimulus” – meaning highly seductive – not unlike the ping of an email, or a text. We’re pulled to anything that provides instant gratification, even when we know we’d get a bigger reward for delaying. We’re also quick to take up any excuse to stop working on something that is difficult and requires high concentration. What Mischel found is that the low delayers quickly burned down their limited reservoir of will and discipline by staring directly — and longingly — at the marshmallow. The high delayers found something else entirely to focus on. They never looked at the marshmallow. Mischel came to call this skill “strategic allocation of attention.” It’s a capacity many of us have lost when it comes to the Pavlovian pull of email. Years later, when Mischel redid the experiment with a new group of 4-year-olds, he decided to teach the poor delayers the techniques of the high delayers. He gave them very simple ways to redirect their attention away from the marshmallow. Kids who hadn’t been able to wait more than a minute rapidly learned to hold out for a full 15 minutes. We, too, can strategically train our attention. When it comes to email and the Internet, it’s critical that we learn to do so. In an increasingly complex world, we need to give ourselves more time to think more reflectively, creatively, and deeply. If you’re truly tethered to your email, start small. Choose a specific time each day to turn off your email for a half hour, or an hour, and focus on something that requires your full attention. Then begin adding other times as your focus gets stronger. Here’s one way to start. Take back your lunch. I wrote about this movement last week, and you can find out more about it here: http://www.TakeBackYourLunch.com At lunchtime, get up from computer step outside and leave your Iphone or your Blackberry behind. Instead, use the time to quiet your mind, or to think through a difficult problem, or to truly connect with a friend or colleague. You’ll be building much needed renewal into your day, and you’ll also be retraining your attention. Take back your lunch is a first step in taking back your attention, which is key to taking back your life. If you want to see how you’re doing when it comes to managing your attention, or any other dimension of your energy, take our Energy Audit: A version of this post appeared originally on HBR.org

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Chris Bowers: Why We Must Pass the Wall Street Reform Bill

July 1, 2010

Below this short blog post, you will find a very lengthy description of what victories were won in the Wall Street reform bill, what compromises were made, and what defeats were suffered. It is, on balance, an argument for why we should pass the Wall Street reform bill, and a roadmap of where the fight continues. Senator Russ Feingold is a personal hero of mine. Yesterday, he posted an editorial explaining why he is opposing this bill. I am not going to pick a fight with Senator Feingold over what he could have done, or should have done on the bill. While this is a rebuttal of sorts, mainly it is to let people know that there is a lot of good in this bill, and it is possible to present that information in an honest, self-aware manner that acknowledges where it falls short. There are a lot of victories in this bill. We need to pass those victories into law. If the bill is defeated by pro-Wall Street forces over the next two weeks, the only parts which will be defeated are the victories, while all of its shortcomings will remain in place. If it is defeated, the 1999 financial deregulation package will remain the basic framework under which our financial system operates, and we all know how that worked out. If it is defeated, no one will ever really take on the banks again, as even after a financial meltdown, even at the trough of their popularity, and even during wide Democratic control of Congress, their victory now would demonstrate their invincibility. The list below was prepared by numerous people associated with Americans for Financial Reform . It is a work in progress, but I hope you find it to be a useful resource. Pass the bill. *** What happened on Wall Street Reform? Battles won, lost and somewhere in between… Systemic risk regulation We won : Systemic risk monitoring : A new, council of regulators will both monitor system-wide risk and advise the Federal Reserve Board – the current primary systemic risk regulator. Oversight and limits : For the first time, there will be higher capital, leverage and liquidity standards on the biggest, riskiest financial firms, as well as bank-like oversight for large “shadow bank” financial companies like AIG and the mortgage financers that were at the center of the crisis. We lost: There remains an unnecessary loophole, inserted in the Senate at the last minute that unnecessarily allows any financial firm that is just 16 percent commercial to escape oversight from the systemic risk council, no matter the threat the firm could pose to the economy. “The Volcker Rule” The so-called “Volcker Rule” ensures that banks do not make risky “proprietary” bets for their own accounts with taxpayer-backed deposit funds and limits investment in private funds. We won : The Volcker rule was not in the House bill at all. In the Senate-passed version, regulators had wide authority to define proprietary trading. The conference report tightens the definition, narrows exemptions and makes the rule a law, not able to be undone by future regulators. It also includes language banning Goldman-style conflicts-of-interest wherein Wall Street firms package risky securities for customers and then bet that they will fail. We lost : Long before the conference, efforts to limit the size of banks, as in the Brown-Kaufman amendment, or fully separate Wall Street speculation from Main Street banks with a new Glass-Steagall, were defeated. We compromised: Sen. Scott Brown was able to win a classic special-interest carve-out that allows banks to trade using private-equity and hedge funds, though they will be limited to investing no more than 3 percent of bank capital and own no more than 3 percent of the fund. But we won key safeguards protecting taxpayers from the danger of Sen. Brown’s carve-out: banks will have to hold in capital reserves every dollar that they invest in hedge funds and private equity funds. Additionally, banks cannot bail out their funds. Taking on Bank Risk: We won : The final bill ensures that firms don’t become too exposed to any single financial counterparty or to their own affiliates. Also, banks will have to hold capital in reserve that reflects all the off-balance sheet debt they could potentially be responsible for in the event of a crisis. We compromised: The final bill includes delayed implementation of rules to improve the quality of capital that banks have to hold and ensure that leverage and capital standards are higher in the future than they are today. We lost : The House would have required systemically-risky financial companies to hold at least $1 in capital for every $15 in debt. The conference turned that reasonable leverage ratio into a discretionary standard the Fed could impose only if the systemic risk council finds that the firm poses a grave threat to the economy. Providing an Alternative to Bailouts with Resolution Authority: We won: The bill expands the FDIC “resolution authority” – the authority to dismantle failing banks – so that the government can safely shut down not just depository banks, but shadow banks like AIG or the conglomerates that own banks (like Citigroup). This will be critical to containing the next financial company failure and providing an alternative to bailouts. To pay for costs associated with the entire bill, the conference originally included a risk-based assessment on large hedge funds and Wall Street banks, to be used in the event of liquidation or, after 25 years, to pay down the national debt. In other words – those that caused the mess will pay to clean it up. Republicans protested, the conference report was reopened, and fee was changed so costs associated with the bill would now be paid for by a combination of TARP funds and an increase in premiums big banks now pay the FDIC We lost : The House bill included a $150B fund paid for by the big banks that would protect taxpayers from the cost of shutting down a large, failed financial firm. Opponents of reform grabbed onto the liquidation fund as a talking point – claiming, nonsensically, that this industry-paid fund for shutting down firms was a “bailout fund”. We compromised: The fund was replaced by a line of credit from Treasury to be repaid by Wall Street in the future. Federal Reserve Governance Reform: Today, the powerful Federal Reserve is functionally controlled by its regulated banks, with banks choosing 2 out of every 3 regional Fed Bank directors. We won : The bill partially ends this conflict of interest by eliminating the ability of the bank representative directors to vote for the regional bank Presidents. We lost : The conference eliminated the most powerful provisions: barring member banks from voting for directors or bank officers serving as directors (“the Jamie Dimon rule”) and making the powerful NY Fed Bank President presidentially-elected. Federal Reserve Transparency / Audit: We won: The bill includes a one-time audit of all Federal Reserve 13(3) emergency lending during the ’07-’08 financial crisis, and ongoing GAO audit authority for future 13(3) and Fed discount window lending, as well as its open market transactions. The bill also ends the Fed’s open-ended bailout authority by limiting 13(3) lending to system-wide support for healthy companies, not propping up individual troubled firms, and requiring that taxpayers be paid back. We lost : However, the conference eliminated the House’s more comprehensive audit of the Federal Reserve. Derivatives Clearing Clearing requirements will ensure that trades are processed through third-party clearinghouses that guarantee payment in case of default and require parties to have cash to back their bets. We won : Despite tremendous pressure from special interest groups claiming they should be exempt from clearing requirements, it is estimated that the conference report will require around 90% of standard derivatives to clear. This means that once the bill is passed large banks, insurance companies, hedge funds and other financial institutions will be required to submit standardized swaps to clearinghouses and post margin to back their bets. The only exemptions from the clearing requirements are for commercial companies like airlines and home heating oil distributors and other small players in the derivatives market who are legitimately hedging risk. Derivatives Trading Currently, over-the-counter (‘OTC’) derivatives are considered private contracts. There is no way for regulators to analyze all the derivatives activity going on in the system and determine whether there is risk to the system. There is also no way for derivatives users to determine whether they are getting a fair price. We won: Derivatives will be traded on an open, regulated exchange or “swap executive facility” much like the New York Stock Exchange. Regulators will have the information they need to oversee risky activities and prevent fraud. Market participants will also be able to access a constant feed of real-time pricing data for standard derivatives that will allow them to shop around for the best deals on derivatives so they can manage price fluctuations in products they use in their day-to-day operations. Derivatives Enforcement: We won : Regulators have authority to take action if a clearing house refuses to accept a transaction that regulators have determined must clear. We compromised: The only limit on regulators’ authority is that they cannot force a clearinghouse to accept a swap for clearing if it would undermine the financial integrity of the clearinghouse or create systemic risk. Foreign Exchange Swaps We won : Foreign exchange swaps are required to clear and trade unless the Secretary of Treasury makes a determination that they should not. This determination must be based on a variety of factors including whether comparable regulation is in place and whether regulating these trades could result in systemic risk. In addition, if the Secretary of Treasury determines that clearing and trading are not required, he must report to Congress. All federal financial regulators will also be required to write rules to protect retail investors in this market. Cap on banks’ clearinghouse ownership We compromised : The SEC and CFTC have authority to set a hard cap on clearinghouse ownership so big banks can’t use their ownership interests to force standard swaps to be done in the unregulated markets that are more profitable for the biggest banks. We lost : Reformers wanted a set standard – big banks couldn’t control more than 20 percent of voting interests in a clearinghouse, period. We won: Regulators will have the authority to put rules in place that can prevent the conflict of interest that exists when the same people who profit from unregulated trades participate in the decision whether trades should be conducted in the less profitable regulated markets. This may include hard caps on banks’ ownership interest in a clearinghouse. Fiduciary duty for swaps dealers We lost: The Senate bill gave swaps dealers a fiduciary duty to pension funds and municipalities. The conference report weakens this duty, creating a loophole that says the fiduciary duty exists when the broker is acting as an adviser, but in comparable provisions under existing law that apply to securities broker-dealers, a broker-dealer is almost never deemed to be acting as an adviser. We won : The bill provides business conduct standards and disclosure requirements for swaps dealers when they do business with pension funds and municipalities. Swaps desk spin-off We won: The Senate-passed bill required taxpayer-backed institutions to spin off their swaps desks so no taxpayer money could be at risk, ever. That provision was weakened in conference to apply to only between 3 and 20 percent of swaps activity and to force the desks into a separately capitalized subsidiary. It does, however, include the riskiest activities including some of those most associated with the crisis – such as a credit-default swaps in which companies like AIG sold insurance on their bets to companies like Goldman Sachs without having to prove they had the money to pay if the bets went bad. We lost: The conference report provides that banks may continue to deal in swaps if they pertain to “permissible assets”, as defined in current banking law. Swaps based on permitted assets include swaps based on interest rates, currency, gold and silver. Insured institutions will also be permitted to trade cleared, investment grade CDS. That could leave 80 percent or more of the activity on swaps desks still under the auspices of taxpayer-backed institutions. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Independence: We won : The agency will be led by a director appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. It is housed in the Federal Reserve but not subservient to it. That is consistent with the original vision for the agency. We compromised: The bureau’s rules could be overridden by the new Financial Stability Oversight Council if the panel decided that they threatened the safety, soundness or stability of the U.S. financial system. Authority: We won: the bureau will write consumer-protection rules for banks and other firms that offer financial services or products. It will enforce those rules for banks and credit unions with more than $10 billion in assets. This includes, for example, the authority to require credit-card issuers like Citigroup to reduce interest rates and fees, or mortgage lenders to give clear information to borrowers. We lost : CFPB does not have examination or enforcement authority over smaller banks and financial institutions CFPB does not have blanket authority to step in if prudential regulators fail to do their jobs with regard to small banks and financial institutions. Funding for Bureau Reformers wanted to ensure the Bureau’s funding was not dependent on the appropriation process, which is unstable. We won: Upon request of the director the CFPB gets a percentage of the total operating expenses of the Federal Reserve System. The agency can also request up to $200 million more through the appropriations process. Specific financial products and practices Private student loans : These are some of the sketchiest financial products out there. These loans have typically been variable rates with no cap no deferment options, affordable payment plans, loan forgiveness programs or cancellation rights in the cases of death or disability that federal loans provide. We won : The CFPB will write rules that apply to all private student loans, including those made by Sallie Mae, by big banks and by career colleges that offer private loans. CFPB will enforce those rules for all private loans provided by all nonbanks and by banks with more than $10 billion in deposits. This enforcement power includes power over Sallie Mae, the nation’s largest provider of student loans. This was a major battle because as originally written, Sallie Mae could have been exempted because it actually makes the loans through a spin- off entity, Sallie Mae bank, which has smaller than $10 billion in deposits. We compromised: For small banks and credit unions, including Sallie Mae Bank, their current regulator will be responsible for enforcing the CFPB rules. We lost: The House bill required private student lenders to confirm with the school that the borrower is eligible to borrow the requested amount and has been notified of any untapped federal loan eligibility. This did not make it into the final package. Arbitration: Forced arbitration clauses are hidden in the fine print of consumer and investment contracts and strip the consumer and investor of the right to file claims against major Wall Street firms, instead funneling those claims in an unaccountable and biased private system. We won: The SEC and CFPB can ban forced arbitration within their respective jurisdictions. Forced arbitration in residential mortgages is banned outright. We compromised: The CFPB must study the issue first before instituting a ban Auto loans: Most car dealers make the bulk of their profit not from the sale of the cars but from financing – much of which is not advantageous to the buyer. Tricks and traps abound We lost: Amazingly, car dealers – the least trusted most complained about businesses in most states – managed to win an exemption from oversight by the CFPB We compromised: The Federal Trade Commission, which currently regulates car dealers, can now operate under a much quicker and simpler procedure for making rules related to auto financing Swipe fees Visa Inc. and MasterCard Inc., the world’s biggest payments networks, set interchange rates and pass that money to card- issuers including Bank of America and JPMorgan. Interchange is the largest component of the fees U.S. merchants pay to accept Visa and MasterCard debit cards. The fees totaled $19.7 billion and averaged 1.63 percent of each sale last year We won : The Federal Reserve will get authority to limit interchange, or “swipe” fees that merchants pay for each debit-card transaction. Retailers can refuse credit cards for purchases under $10 and offer discounts based on the form of payment. Merchants will be able to route debit-card transactions on more than one network, which will provide competition ina previously non-competitive market. We compromised: The bill exempt lenders with assets of less than $10 billion, or 99 percent of U.S. banks. Electronic benefits transfer (EBT) and other prepaid cards are also exempted Credit Rating Agencies Credit-ratings agencies had been held up historically as neutral arbiters of risk. That turned out to be far from the truth, as evidenced by the numerous mortgage-backed securities and other risky securities that states and municipalities in particular bought because they had been slapped with a AAA rating – meaning they were supposed to be virtually risk-free. The problem was that credit rating agencies made money by giving their customers the ratings they wanted. There was little or no accountability for the agencies because it was nearly impossible to sue them. Rules & Oversight We Won: For the first time, the SEC will have an Office of Credit Ratings to keep a watchful eye on the rating agencies’ critical role in our financial system. The Office will have the authority to write rules and levy fines. The SEC will have a new mandate to examine rating agency operations. Credit rating agencies will be required to disclose the data and methodologies used in their ratings, as well as ratings performance. The SEC will have the authority to deregister an agency for providing bad ratings over time. Raters must meet standards of training, experience, and competence, and be tested. The SEC shall issue rules to prevent sales and marketing considerations from influencing the production of ratings. Raters will have to take into consideration credible information that comes to their attention from a source other than the organizations being rated. Credit rating agencies are explicitly prohibited from advising an issuer and rating that issuer’s securities. The bill eliminates the credit rating agency exemption from the Fair Disclosure rule which provides that when an issuer shares important nonpublic information with certain parties, now including rating agencies, it must make public disclosure of that information. The bill replaces the term “furnish” with “file” in existing statute. Information that is “furnished” to the SEC is subject to a lower standard of accuracy and liability than information that is “filed” with the SEC. Conflict of Interest We won: The SEC will create a new mechanism to prevent issuers of asset-backed securities from picking the agency they think will give the highest rating. Unless a stronger mechanism is identified in the SEC study, an independent, investor-led board will assign rating agencies to provide initial ratings of asset-backed securities. We compromised: The SEC will be given two years to study the conflict of interest caused by securities issuers picking and paying their credit rating agencies before they begin assigning rating agencies. Liability We won: Investors will now be able to recover damages in private anti-fraud actions brought against rating agencies for gross negligence in the rating. Registered credit rating agencies will no longer be exempt from expert liability under the securities laws. The SEC originally exempted rating agencies from liability to encourage reliance on credit ratings in the registration of securities. Eliminating the exemption is consistent with the bill’s goal of reducing such reliance. The bill clarifies that ratings are not forward-looking statements entitled to special protections from liability. Universal Ratings We won: Raters must apply ratings consistently for corporate bonds, municipal bonds, and structured finance products and instruments, based on probability of default. Reliance on Ratings We compromised: All federal agencies will review their rules and regulations and eliminate all references to credit ratings. We support a reduction in the over-reliance on ratings, but a sufficient alternate standard of creditworthiness will need to be found for some federal rules. Rating Agency Governance We Won: At least half of a credit rating agency’s boards of directors must be made up of independent members with no financial stake in credit ratings. When a rating analyst switches jobs, the analyst’s ratings will be reviewed and the job change will be made public. Compliance officers isolated from the rating and sales business will be required to file reports on rating agencies’ adherence to rules. Post-Rating Surveillance We lost: The final bill did not include a requirement that credit rating agencies monitor and update ratings as market conditions change. However, the initial rating assignment mechanism will take into account long-term rating performance. Public Rating Utility We lost: Many reformers believed that the best way to solve the problems associated with credit ratings agencies was to create a public agency. This was never really given serious consideration in either the House or Senate. Other Consumer Protections and Assistance Note all the wins. Probably did best in this area: Abusive mortgage protection We won: Lenders cannot sell mortgages unless they determine that borrowers can afford to repay – even after teaser rates expire. Prepayment penalties that can trap borrowers in abusive loans are banned for adjustable rate, subprime, and other risky mortgages, and limited for all home loans. No more kickbacks for mortgage companies and brokers for steering customers into higher cost loans than they qualify for.. Limiting fees on all loans, and providing extra protections on high cost loans. Financial assistance for families and communities We won: A new $1 billion emergency loan fund to help families at risk of losing their homes because of unemployment or illness. Expands access to community-based financial planning services, giving more families guidance on building credit, identifying good loans and so on. Provides grants to help families connect to bank accounts and provides funding to Community Development Financial Institutions to create affordable alternatives to payday loans. Additional funds for communities to put foreclosed and abandoned homes back to use for families. More transparency for the HAMP program that we can use to push it to do a better job for households facing foreclosure. Data Enhancements We won: Data enhancements for HMDA (Home Mortgage Disclosure Act) which include information on loan terms and conditions & the age of borrowers. Data on small business lending that will help assess whether woman and minority-owned small business are receiving loans to start or expand their businesses. These data enhancements give us more of the tools we need to keep quality loans flowing to communities, and see and stop abusive practices. A default and foreclosure database that would be an early warning system enabling stakeholders to take action if the data shows a spike in foreclosures. A database of individual loan records in the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) program. This will increase the accountability of the industry for modifying distressed loans Wiring money We won: Creates new disclosures that will allow senders to know exactly how much of the money they transferred will actually get to loved ones in their home country rather than being siphoned off for fees. This information will let people compare prices and shop for the most economical service. Student loan reforms We won: Private student lending – till now badly under-regulated, and full of abusive practices – covered by CFPB rulemaking and enforcement authority. Creation of a private student loan ombudsman for the federal government, charged both with assisting borrowers and with analyzing complaints and making policy recommendations to Congress and the Administration to address them. Report on private student loans. Within two years of enactment, the CFPB is to issue a report on private student loans, including growth and changes in the market, the underwriting and terms of the loans, who is taking them out and why, and if students have taken out the maximum in federal loans first. That’s everything. I hope you found this useful.

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Mark Silver: Why Marketing Is A Critical Part of the Solution to Our Woes

June 27, 2010

At 1:10 p.m. I’m standing in line at the post office. I know it’s 1:10 p.m. because my iPhone prayer app lets loose with a resounding call announcing the time for the midday prayer. The three other people in the post office avoid looking at me. Or maybe it doesn’t bother them. I carry the awareness of the waiting prayer for two hours, until I make it back home to my office. I do the ritual washing of my hands, face, and feet, take out my prayer rug, and face northeast. Then I breathe. My prayer carries me through various positions, my forehead approaching, then touching, the floor, then rising up again. Because the midday prayer is done silently, the silence of the devotion carries me. I’m grateful for this, because my heart is trembling with grief. Struggling to Express Grief The gushing bleeding of oil in the Gulf of Mexico is not anything I can contain. I alternate between numbness, denial and grief. It’s simple: the lifestyle that we’re living, that I’m living, is unsustainable, and it’s killing many things in this world. We know this. It’s not a surprise, but it’s hard to keep that much pain present. I believe that our unexpressed grief is a significant fuel on the fire of our unsustainable lifestyle. Grief for the loss of life, the loss of the hope, the loss of beauty and connection. Have you heard of Farmville? It’s a virtual game within Facebook where you can run a virtual farm. Millions of people are playing this game on a daily basis. Even though it’s a free game, you can spend real money on it if you choose to. And people choose to. More than US$1 billion annually is spent on this game alone. What are we doing? Where are we putting our resources? This is not about blame. I don’t blame anyone for numbing out to what’s going on. Marketing Has Gotten Very Sophisticated Over the years, more and more psychological tricks have been implemented in marketing and product development. Add extra nicotine to cigarettes, put cheap, high-alcohol beer in convenience stores, make porn and video games and violent movies easily accessible. Put marketing messages everywhere so that they are nearly inescapable. And make those marketing messages full of the promise of a wealthy, sexy lifestyle that the vast majority of the world’s population can’t reach. The result? A loss of hope. A disconnection from the true source of our happiness and nourishment. An ever-increasing consumption of material goods. Resources, money and time, end up being funneled to the very things that continue to hurt us all so much. Our economy, our marketplace is deeply dysfunctional. Billions spent on war, chemicals and oil, a small fraction of that spent on things that really make a positive difference in our lives. And the rest spent on numbing out to the powerlessness that we all feel when facing it. Hey, Let Go of That Despair It’s important to face things as they are. Expressing grief is something I highly recommend. But don’t indulge in despair. Despair is just another way of avoiding grief. Despair is a decision that things will never work out, that there is no hope. Instead, think about marketing. Well, first indulge your heart in love, then think about marketing. Yes, I Said Marketing There are so many good people doing good things. Sauvie Island Organics here in Portland has a community-supported agriculture program, which means that up to 400 families buy a share in the farm, and then share in the harvest. Delicious, local, organic food delivered directly from the farm. They have openings. Huh? There are over 1.5 million people in the Portland area, and this farm hasn’t filled all 400 openings? So much of our attention is taken up in distraction by our dysfunctional economy. Fast food instead of fresh, organic vegetables, for instance. The healing work that amazing people are doing in sustainable food, in holistic health, in alternative energy, needs to take up a lot more of the attention and resources. Our local Hollywood Video store is being shuttered because the parent corporation, Movie Gallery, Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. I’m guessing that’s because the entertainment dollars have shifted to online downloads and Farmville, among other things. But wouldn’t it be amazing if they went bankrupt because all of those millions of dollars went to healers, coaches and practitioners of all stripes who were supporting people in regaining wholeness and connecting with each other in meaningful ways instead of zoning out in front of screens? Marketing Is a Piece of the Answer We find ourselves in urgent times. There is a desperate need for love, acceptance, and healing. The grief I feel at the distance between where we are and where my heart so longs to live is profound. If we are going to heal the world, we are going to do it one imperfect step at a time. We need political activism. We need internal healing. We need love and community. And we need the people doing the good work locally, sustainably, beautifully to be visible. To take up space. To be the recipient of the over-abundance of resources flowing through our culture. There is a way to do marketing with integrity. There is a way to do it with love and heart and be very effective. If you struggle with marketing or business even a little bit because of how you’ve seen marketing used, I’m with you. I share that pain.But please don’t abandon the airwaves to those hocking greed and dissatisfaction. Instead, open your heart to marketing. Open your heart to business. Business is in pain, it’s sick. Don’t abandon it. Bring your heart, engage with love and integrity, and let’s see if we can come together to claim the space and bring the healing we are all so desperate for. By the time my forehead has touched the ground for the final time at the end of my prayer, my heart has returned to love. It has found hope and inspiration once more. I remember that the weight of the world is not on my shoulders alone. You and I are in this together. Let’s take up the space the Divine has given us, and bring your good work out into air, where everyone can see it. Form your marketing in love, bring it out in inspired action, and connect with the people who need what you do so much more than the alternatives they’re faced with.

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Laura Day: The Business of Intuition

June 14, 2010

Today’s market requires that you use all of our skills to compete. It is an exciting challenge and one that creates a need to discover parts of yourself that in easier times, you overlooked. In the long run, this will allow you to enrich all areas of your life. Intuition and the acquisition of wealth have a lot in common. There are many ways to arrive at each, and every individual has their own unique gift in doing so. In fact, it is the homogenization of the path that often impedes an effective strategy. As with intuition, the acquisition of wealth is mystified, when in fact, it’s based on realistic evaluation, data, self knowledge (whether yours or your company), adaptability and foresight. Both adaptability and foresight are the gifts of intuition. Where the budget dollar is spent on market research, it might be better spent on using the human resources you already have to acquire an accurate evaluation of your product or skills and a precognitive sense of the market in the future. This is especially valuable in your international market where the tools to evaluate a given “value” have not proven especially accurate. When you don’t have time for research or even an educated guess, intuition — that flash of accurate knowing — is your most reliable resource, especially if you train it. Usually, your intuition functions in emergencies, it’s the right decision you made in a split second, with little or no information that saved you. However, you don’t need to wait for an emergency to use it. In fact, the appropriate use of intuition will make you proactive enough that problems are solved before they occur. Scientific experiments demonstrating the ability of the human mind to both send and perceive information at a distance date back over fifty years, yet intuition has been cloistered in the realm of mysticism and scientific institutions. Where it really belongs is in the day-to-day structure of our life and its various endeavors. In How to Rule the World from Your Couch , I train your brain to get accurate, appropriate, actionable information in an efficient way, a way you have used inefficiently in the past. Intuition is not a strange skill acquired due to a vegetarian diet or a near-death experience. Intuition is the first capacity our brain had as babies and small children to survive in the absence of experience or reason. It can be redirected very easily to both gather and send information that will give you the edge in any market as well as helping you to find the niche where you and your company organically excel. How to Use Your Intuition to Create a Future “Market Map” Know your goals. Question your goals. People have a tendency to get stuck in a personal or corporate identity that calcifies and becomes vulnerable to market changes. If you cultivate a willingness to adapt and reinvent yourself, you will thrive. That said, if you don’t know your target it’s hard to hit it. So, know your goals. Forget out-of-the-box thinking and brainstorming. The reference point for each of these activities is something isn’t working. Throw away the box and allow perception to wander and document where your attention goes without editing. Odd as this may seem, write down a question, such as “how will our market change in the next year?” Ask your entire company (or all your friends) to write one page that will take place over a twelve month period. Tell them not to worry about the story or the writing, but to allow their attention to wander anywhere without editing anything. DO NOT TELL THEM THE QUESTION! Simply tell them you have an idea and this will help you fill in the blanks. Ask them to do it with a timeline. It sounds strange and uncomfortable at first, and it is. But, what you yield will amaze you when you apply it to the question you wrote and use a bit of interpretation to apply the data. Once you have your intuitive data, look at the other information you have available and come up with a plan. Nothing is the entire answer. Laura Day is the New York Times best selling author of PRACTICAL INTUITION and HOW TO RULE THE WORLD FROM YOUR COUCH. Newsweek named her the “$10,000-a-month psychic” and The Independent called her “The Psychic of Wall Street”. Laura has been featured on Oprah, CNN, Good Morning America, ABC News and other national and international media. Laura teaches mainstream professions how to integrate intuition into their process to create greater success. Laura teaches and lectures all over the world. HOW TO RULE THE WORLD FROM YOUR COUCH is her textbook on using intuition effectively. www.howtoruletheworldfromyourcouch.com

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Lawmakers Seek to Extend Retirement Income as U.S. Workers Outlive Savings

June 11, 2010

By Margaret Collins June 11 (Bloomberg) — Lawmakers concerned that Americans may outlive their savings are looking at ways to make the money last through retirement. Workers who relied on traditional pensions are now trying to pay for retirement with their 401(k) savings, according to the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. In 1983, 62 percent of workers had only company-funded pensions, while 12 percent had 401(k)s, the center said. In 2007, those numbers were 17 percent and 63 percent, respectively. Most American households at or near retirement “are consumed by fear,” said Anthony Webb, associate director of research at the research nonprofit. “Instead of walking on the beach hand-in-hand in retirement, the reality is that they’re sitting around the kitchen table cutting coupons.” Legislators and regulators are focusing on income guarantees such as annuities to supplement traditional retirement plans. Annuities are insurance products that can provide monthly income for life in exchange for upfront payments. Workers underestimate how much money they’ll need in retirement and how long they’ll live, said Roger Ferguson , chief executive officer and president of TIAA-CREF, whose New York- based firm manages $426 billion of retirement funds for 3.7 million teachers and academic researchers. The life expectancy of a 65-year-old U.S. male is 82, and 85 for a 65-year-old female, according to the Social Security Administration. The average 401(k) account balance as of March 31 was $66,900, according to Boston-based Fidelity Investments, which has 11 million participants. The average monthly Social Security benefit as of April was $1,067. Requests for Comment “It’s going to be quite important for policy makers to turn their attention relatively quickly to the retirement issue as one of, if not the, most important social crisis that remains in America right now,” said Ferguson, a former Federal Reserve vice chairman. A Senate Special Committee on Aging hearing June 16 on the issue follows a request for comment from the U.S. Labor and Treasury departments on retirement security including annuities in plans, and whether regulators should require employers with 401(k)s to offer a lifetime income option or automatically enroll employees who don’t make a selection. “If pension plans can fail, why can’t annuities? Who is guaranteeing them?” Joseph Ortiz, a 34-year-old Chicago construction worker, said in a telephone interview. “At least with a regular 401(k), if something goes horribly wrong you can look at yourself and say ‘I didn’t do my homework.’” The agencies received more than 700 responses , including one from Ortiz. It will likely take months to review them and they may not lead to a regulatory recommendation, Assistant Labor Secretary Phyllis Borzi , who’s scheduled to testify at the hearing, said in a telephone interview. No Mandate The administration has no plans for a mandate, said Jared Bernstein , executive director of the White House Task Force on the Middle Class. “We are by no means saying that everybody should have an annuity,” he said in a telephone interview. Participants in 401(k)s generally don’t buy annuities when retiring. Less than 1 percent take them, according to Hewitt Associates, a Lincolnshire, Illinois-based human-resources company. Many retirees lack sufficient funds to purchase annuities large enough to cover their spending, few payments are adjusted for inflation and heirs generally do not receive the benefits at death, according to the Government Accountability Office. Reluctant Employers Employers have been reluctant to adopt them within their retirement plans because of concerns about fees and potential legal liabilities for companies who pick the insurers. There’s also the issue of how workers who switch jobs can transfer the guarantees, said Lori Lucas, defined contribution practice leader for Callan Associates Inc., a San Francisco-based investment-consulting firm. Last year, 4 percent of employers offered a defined contribution retirement plan such as a 401(k) that allowed participants to allocate a portion of contributions to an income guarantee, according to Callan, which surveyed 90 plan sponsors with more than $100 million in assets. That compares with 3 percent in 2008. Insurers and investment managers are trying to address some of these issues as they develop annuities that fit inside 401(k)s, Lucas said. MetLife Inc. and Prudential Financial Inc. , the two largest U.S. insurers, and investment managers BlackRock Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. , are blending income guarantees with target-date 401(k) portfolios, which shift to more conservative assets such as bonds as investors near retirement. Insurer Offerings Prudential has had 401(k) funds with annuities since 2007, attracting 21,000 participants and $333 million in assets as of March, said Mark Foley, vice president of the Newark, New Jersey-based company’s institutional income group. AllianceBernstein Holding LP and Putnam Investments LLC are working on similar products. Pacific Investment Management Co. started funds in November that are suitable for 401(k) plans, offering monthly cash from a Treasury Inflation Protected Securities portfolio for 10 years or 20 years in retirement, said Tom Streiff, the firm’s retirement product manager. Workers’ savings accounts should incorporate an income plan before retirement, said Shlomo Benartzi , a UCLA Anderson School of Management professor who specializes in behavioral finance. Half of retirees in their 80s can’t be responsible for their money decisions because they have some cognitive impairment, Benartzi said. “It’s like a plane without landing gear,” he said. “We guide people in take off and in the air but not when landing.” Savings Alarm One pending bill, introduced in December by Senators Jeff Bingaman , a New Mexico Democrat, Johnny Isakson , a Georgia Republican and Herb Kohl , a Wisconsin Democrat, would require corporate retirement plan sponsors to disclose how much monthly income employees’ portfolios would generate in retirement. Ortiz said he worries about having enough to live on, especially when he looks at his 80-year-old grandmother, who still works as a bank teller and is running out of money. While that’s an alarm to save more, he said, it’s not enough of a reason to have a retirement plan with a guarantee. “How do you know the government’s going to be able to borrow more money next time to rescue an AIG to be able to pay that annuity?” Ortiz said. To contact the reporter on this story: Margaret Collins in New York at mcollins45@bloomberg.net

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Bank of Japan May Detail Loan Plan That Fails to Spur Growth, Satisfy Kan

June 10, 2010

By Masahiro Hidaka and Mayumi Otsuma June 11 (Bloomberg) — The Bank of Japan is set to detail a plan to stimulate credit for private companies that may prove insufficient to spur economic growth and defeat deflation. The program is unlikely to exceed a few trillion yen (tens of billions of U.S. dollars) two people familiar with the matter said on condition of anonymity because the talks are private. The facility would do little to stoke domestic demand, said former BOJ board member Teizo Taya , adding that the effort is mainly aimed at fending off calls for broader monetary easing. Pressure may rise in coming months as newly appointed Prime Minister Naoto Kan , who as deputy repeatedly called on the central bank to step up its efforts, lays out his government’s priorities. With Japan’s recovery reliant on exports, U.S. officials have joined the call, pressing for the second-largest economy to contribute more to the global recovery. “Under the new administration, political pressure on the BOJ will probably strengthen, and the economy and prices are unlikely to provide much of a tailwind,” said Taya, who served on the board until 2004 and now advises the Daiwa Institute of Research in Tokyo. “The latest lending program may not enable the central bank to weather such pressure for long.” Governor Masaaki Shirakawa instructed his staff to work on the plan in April, after previous efforts failed to stem the deflation that has discouraged spending and squeezed profits. Rate Floor The bank cut the benchmark interest rate to 0.1 percent in December 2008, and will keep it on hold at the two-day meeting that ends June 15, according to all 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Last December, following calls to act from politicians including Kan, the board unveiled a credit program that it doubled to 20 trillion yen ($220 billion) in March. Policy makers said last month that the latest measure will provide lenders with one-year loans at 0.1 percent. The duration and size have yet to be determined. Including rollovers, the loans may last about four years, the two people said. One of them said that if the economy were to receive a severe shock, the BOJ would consider expanding the separate 20 trillion yen facility. Europe’s debt crisis has clouded the outlook for external demand for Japan’s goods. Pumping more cash toward lenders will be fruitless because of weak demand for credit, some economists said. “The new program won’t do much to inspire additional demand,” said Masaaki Kanno , chief Japan economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo, who worked at the BOJ for 25 years. “Adding funds will only have a limited impact because the problem doesn’t stem from a liquidity shortage.” Lending Falls Bank lending declined for a sixth month in May, the central bank said this week. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner wrote in a letter last week that higher savings in the U.S. must “be complemented by stronger domestic demand growth in Japan and in the European surplus countries.” Other data indicate Japan’s export-led recovery remains intact. Gross domestic product rose at an annualized 5 percent rate last quarter, the most since the second quarter of 2009, the government said yesterday. Machinery orders climbed for a second month in April. JFE Holdings Inc. , Japan’s second-largest steelmaker, said last month that it plans to spend 1 trillion yen over three years to tap demand in Asia as profitability increases. Kan, who was finance minister before taking office as Japan’s leader this week, has advocated inflation targeting and said he wants consumer prices to resume rising this year. Prices have slumped for 14 straight months. Noda, Ikeda Fresh leadership at the Finance Ministry has yet to be tested: While Kan’s replacement Yoshihiko Noda said this week he has “no intention” of forcing the BOJ to adopt an inflation target, his newly appointed deputy Motohisa Ikeda , who will be allowed to represent the government at monetary policy meetings, urged the BOJ in February to buy more government bonds. “Ikeda’s appointment attracts our attention,” said Jun Ishii , chief bond strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. in Tokyo. “If he attends any board meetings, he may ask for a price-targeting commitment immediately.” Kiichi Murashima , chief economist at Citigroup Global Markets Japan Inc. in Tokyo, said “the government may also press the BOJ to buy more bonds should long-term interest rates surge or the yen advance.” Benchmark 10-year government bonds yielded 1.205 percent yesterday. The yen touched an eight-year high against the euro on June 7, threatening Japanese export competitiveness. The BOJ buys 1.8 trillion yen of government bonds from lenders each month. “The BOJ probably wants to avert the adoption of specific inflation targeting and government bond purchases at any cost,” said Ishii at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley. To contact the reporters on this story: Mayumi Otsuma in Tokyo at motsuma@bloomberg.net ; Masahiro Hidaka in Tokyo at mhidaka@bloomberg.net

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Fiorina, Whitman, Lincoln Among Winners as 12 U.S. States Hold Primaries

June 9, 2010

By Patrick O’Connor and Catherine Dodge June 9 (Bloomberg) — Voters in 12 states delivered a mixed message as a Democratic senator in Arkansas survived a primary challenge, two former chief executive officers captured Republican nominations in California and a Tea Party activist won a race in Nevada to challenge the leader of the U.S. Senate. Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas dodged an anti- Washington wave that swept two fellow senators out of office earlier this year. Former Hewlett-Packard Co. Chief Executive Carly Fiorina won the Republican Senate primary in California and former eBay Chief Executive Meg Whitman prevailed in the gubernatorial primary to oppose Democrat Jerry Brown . In Nevada yesterday, Republicans chose Sharron Angle , a Tea Party favorite, as their Senate nominee. She will run against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid , a top Democratic target for Republicans in November’s general election. In South Carolina, Republicans Nikki Haley and U.S. Representative Gresham Barrett will meet in a June 22 runoff to determine the party’s nominee for governor after neither won at least 50 percent of the vote in a four-way race. Haley, a state representative who faced allegations of extramarital affairs in the campaign’s closing days, had 49 percent of the vote with all precincts reporting, according to the Associated Press. Barrett had 22 percent. Lincoln Victory In Arkansas, Lincoln led Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter 52 percent to 48 percent with 99 percent of the precincts reporting, the AP said. Lincoln will face Republican U.S. Representative John Boozman in November; polls have shown her trailing him. Lincoln avoided the fates of Utah Republican Senator Bob Bennett and Pennsylvania Democratic Senator Arlen Specter , who were denied renomination this year. “She beat some pretty long odds” in winning the runoff, said Jennifer Duffy , senior editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington. “The biggest loser is labor,” which spent millions to defeat the two-term senator, Duffy said. “Your message is loud and clear — that Washington needs to work for us, for us in Arkansas,” Lincoln told supporters. Fiorina Against Boxer In California, Fiorina won the right to oppose Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer . Fiorina beat former U.S. Representative Tom Campbell, 57, an economist who served five terms in Congress. “California is in crisis,” Whitman told supporters in Los Angeles. “We certainly cannot save California’s future by repeating the failures of the past.” “We have just seen the two Republican candidates for governor stage a billionaire’s demolition derby,” Brown told supporters in Los Angeles. “They both say they want to run the state like a business but they set a national record for excessive spending.” “This is going to be the contest of the insiders, the corporate insider versus the political insider,” said Jack Pitney , who teaches politics at Claremont McKenna College in Claremont, California, before the vote. “Whitman is going to talk about restraining the growth of government, but the question is going to be whether Jerry Brown can harness the public reaction against corporate misconduct and turn it against Whitman.” Surveys show the political environment becoming more toxic for incumbents. Gallup Poll A Gallup Poll conducted May 24-25 found that 60 percent of registered U.S. voters would rather vote for a House candidate who has never served in Congress, compared with 32 percent who said they favored a candidate with some congressional experience. In the same survey, the Princeton, New Jersey-based polling firm found that 50 percent of registered voters wanted to re- elect their own member of Congress, one of the lowest numbers since 1993. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points. Lincoln, 49, has been a target for Republicans and some Democrats since last year. Organized labor helped recruit Halter, also 49, to run against her because she opposed unions’ top legislative priority, a measure to ease union-organizing requirements, and because of her support for free-trade agreements. As the election approached, opponents in both parties scrutinized her Senate votes. Republicans blasted her for backing initial versions of President Barack Obama ’s health-care bill, while some Democrats bristled that she voted against the measure that cleared Congress in late March. Union Money Unions poured money and people into the contest. During a June 6 appearance on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Lincoln said Washington-based unions had spent about $10 million in the last three months trying to unseat her. Working American, an AFL-CIO offshoot, spent $1.3 million on the race, according to the Federal Election Commission. Lincoln touted her clout as chairwoman of the Senate Agriculture Committee and a provision she added to the pending financial-markets overhaul bill that would force commercial banks to wall off their swaps-trading desks. She had raised more than $9 million by May 19, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, almost three times the $3.4 million Halter raised. She also campaigned with former President Bill Clinton , who served 12 years as governor of Arkansas. Anti-Washington Mood The anti-Washington mood that imperiled Lincoln figured prominently in Nevada’s Republican race. The state has the highest home foreclosure rate in the country and the second highest unemployment rate behind Michigan. Angle, a former state legislator with a record of opposing tax increases, benefited from support from Tea Party adherents. Also backing her and paying for ads in the race was the anti-tax Club for Growth. As Angle, 60, surged ahead in the final polls before yesterday’s vote, her two main foes in a 12-candidate race, former Nevada Republican Party Chairwoman Sue Lowden and Las Vegas businessman Danny Tarkanian , sought to raise concerns about her electability against Reid, 70. With all of the vote counted, Angle had 40 percent, Lowden 26 percent and Tarkanian 23 percent, AP said. The Republicans spent much of their campaign treasuries on their primary campaigns, a factor that could aid Reid. “It looks good for Harry Reid,” said David Damore, an assistant political science professor at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas. The Republicans have “already spent all their money, and they’re cutting each other up,” he said. California Results In California, Fiorina, 55, and Whitman, 53, faced the first tests of their political careers. Each won handily. With all precincts reporting, Fiorina led Campbell, her closest opponent, 56 percent to 22 percent, AP reported. Whitman defeated Steve Poizner , the state’s insurance commissioner, 64 percent to 27 percent in an eight-candidate race with all of the vote counted. Fiorina was confident enough in the primary result that she had turned her attention to the general election fight with Boxer, 69, already airing a television spot that attacked Boxer, the chairwoman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, for calling climate change “one of the very important national security issues we face.” Boxer’s campaign responded by assailing Hewlett-Packard’s business practices when Fiorina was CEO. Candidate Funding Whitman funded her campaign with $71 million of her own money, state records show. She spent part of her campaign treasury rebutting attacks by opponents, who ran ads that featured circling vultures to criticize Whitman’s ties to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Brown, 72, previously served as California’s governor from 1975 to 1983. California’s unemployment rate reached 12.6 percent in April, the nation’s third-highest. Economic unease among voters and concern about expanding government put Boxer, a three-term incumbent, at risk of losing in November, said the Cook Political Report’s Duffy. “Voters seem to be in the mood for some change right now, even in a state as Democratic as California,” Duffy said. In other results yesterday, U.S. Representative Bob Inglis was forced into a runoff in South Carolina’s Republican primary. He will face Trey Gowdy , an official in Spartanburg County, on June 22. Gowdy led Inglis 39 percent to 28 percent with all precincts counted, according to AP. An Inglis loss in the runoff would make him the third House member to be defeated in a primary this year. Democrat Alan Mollohan of West Virginia, a 14-term incumbent, was defeated in a May 11 vote and Republican Parker Griffith of Alabama, a freshman lawmaker, lost a June 1 primary. In Georgia, Republican Tom Graves , 40, won a special election for an open U.S. House seat. To contact the reporter for this story: Patrick O’Connor in Washington at Poconnor14@bloomberg.net

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Fiorina Wins Republican Senate Primary in California, to Challenge Boxer

June 9, 2010

By Patrick O’Connor June 9 (Bloomberg) — Former Hewlett-Packard Co. Chief Executive Officer Carly Fiorina won the Republican primary in California to run against Democratic U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer in November, the Associated Press said. Fiorina had 55 percent of the vote with 10 percent of precincts reporting, AP said. She defeated former U.S. Representative Tom Campbell and former state Assemblyman Chuck Devore , a favorite of Tea Party activists. Fiorina, 55, spent more than $6.7 million on her primary campaign as of May 19, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, three times more than Campbell or Devore. The former company executive overcame voter anger toward Wall Street to earn a spot on the November ballot. In the days before the primary, Fiorina turned her attention to the general election campaign against Boxer. She released a television advertisement that attacked Boxer, chairwoman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, for calling climate change “one of the very important national security issues we face.” Boxer’s campaign responded by assailing Hewlett-Packard’s business practices under Fiorina. To contact the reporter for this story: Patrick O’Connor in Washington at Poconnor14@bloomberg.net

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Fiorina Wins Republican Senate Primary in California, Will Challenge Boxer

June 8, 2010

By Patrick O’Connor June 9 (Bloomberg) — Former Hewlett-Packard Co. Chief Executive Officer Carly Fiorina won the Republican primary in California to run against Democratic U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer in November, the Associated Press said. Fiorina had 55 percent of the vote with 10 percent of precincts reporting, AP said. She defeated former U.S. Representative Tom Campbell and former state Assemblyman Chuck Devore , a favorite of Tea Party activists. Fiorina, 55, spent more than $6.7 million on her primary campaign as of May 19, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, three times more than Campbell or Devore. The former company executive overcame voter anger toward Wall Street to earn a spot on the November ballot. In the days before the primary, Fiorina turned her attention to the general election campaign against Boxer. She released a television advertisement that attacked Boxer, chairwoman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, for calling climate change “one of the very important national security issues we face.” Boxer’s campaign responded by assailing Hewlett-Packard’s business practices under Fiorina. To contact the reporter for this story: Patrick O’Connor in Washington at Poconnor14@bloomberg.net

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Lunch With Buffett Attracts Bid of $51,000 on Charity Auction’s Second Day

June 7, 2010

By Andrew Frye June 7 (Bloomberg) — Warren Buffett ’s annual lunch auction, a chance to clink Cherry Cokes with the world’s third- richest person, drew a high bid of $51,000 in the second day of the weeklong charity event . The auction on EBay Inc. generated 18 bids by 4:30 p.m. in New York, according to the website. Bids typically surge in the sale’s final hours. Last year’s winner, a group led by Courtenay Wolfe of Salida Capital, paid $1.68 million, 20 percent less than the 2008 winner as the recession crimped charitable donations. Buffett, 79, rose to prominence through five decades of investing success. Since the financial crisis, his celebrity has grown as his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. prospered without a U.S. bailout and the billionaire defended Goldman Sachs Group Inc. from public criticism. Guy Spier , who won the auction in 2007, has used his association with Buffett to make business contacts, such as a wealthy man Spier dined with last month. “He wanted to meet the idiot who’d had lunch with Buffett for that amount of money,” said Spier, a principal at hedge fund Aquamarine Funds LLC whose bidding team paid $650,100. “I think the return on the investment is really quite high. I’ve met so many people I wouldn’t have otherwise met.” ‘Learn From the Master’ Wolfe of Toronto-based Salida said last year her lunch date with Buffett was a “once in a lifetime opportunity.” Greenlight Capital Inc.’s David Einhorn , who won the 2003 auction with a $250,100 bid, said at the time that he made the purchase to support a good cause and “learn from the master.” The auction has raised almost $6 million over the past decade for San Francisco-based Glide Foundation , a favorite charity of Buffett’s first wife, Susan Buffett , who died in 2004. She volunteered at the organization, which says it serves almost 1 million meals annually to the homeless and poor. No bids were made last night after the auction began at 10:30 p.m. New York time. Bidding concludes June 11. Buffett’s insights on markets attract the attention of those looking for clues on his investment strategy. Berkshire’s investments in financial firms have increased pressure on Buffett, the chief executive officer, to discuss the financial crisis, assign blame and recommend remedies. Barack Obama , during his successful 2008 presidential campaign, turned to Buffett for advice on the economy. So did the architects of the U.S. financial rescue program. In the days before American International Group Inc. needed the first installment of a government bailout valued at $182.3 billion, the insurer’s then-CEO called Buffett for help, which he declined to provide. Defending Goldman Sachs Buffett, who injected $5 billion into Goldman Sachs during the depths of the crisis, became one of the bank’s most visible advocates amid public outrage over the firm’s pay practices and conduct with customers. Last month, he told a crowd of 37,000 people at Berkshire’s annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, that Goldman Sachs wasn’t to blame for client losses and disputed the reasoning behind a U.S. regulatory lawsuit against the investment bank. Goldman Sachs denies wrongdoing. The investment pays Berkshire $500 million a year, or, as Buffett boasted to shareholders, about $15 a second. The 2008 transaction also gave Buffett’s firm warrants for the bank’s common stock that have a paper profit of more than $1 billion, based on Goldman Sachs’s closing price of $138.68 today on the New York Stock Exchange. On June 2, Buffett appeared before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission and defended Moody’s Corp. against criticism that the New York-based ratings firm misled investors about the quality of mortgage-linked securities during the housing boom. Berkshire is Moody’s biggest shareholder with a 13 percent stake. Cherry Coke Diet His fortune was estimated at $47 billion by Forbes magazine in March, placing him behind telecommunications investor Carlos Slim and Microsoft Corp. co-founder Bill Gates in the worldwide rankings. Buffett’s stock picks and takeovers turned Berkshire from a failing textile mill to a $174 billion seller of bricks, power and hurricane insurance. Berkshire’s profit rose 61 percent to $8.06 billion last year. In 2006, Buffett pledged 85 percent of his Berkshire holdings, a commitment valued at about $37 billion at the time, to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and charities of four of his family members. The Gates donation is being made in annual installments, and will continue after Buffett’s death. The charity, established by Gates and his wife, combats disease and global poverty, and funds U.S. education initiatives. Berkshire is the biggest shareholder of Coca-Cola Co. and in a 2006 letter to investors Buffett attributed a clean bill of health in part to a diet featuring its soft drinks. “It’s amazing what Cherry Coke and hamburgers will do for a fellow,” he wrote.

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Coast Guard Forms Panel to Probe Ideas to Clean Up Oil Spill

June 4, 2010

By Pat Wechsler June 4 (Bloomberg) — Federal officials are creating a new panel to look into proposed technologies and products to clean up the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, concerned that BP Plc ’s multi- stage suggestion box system isn’t working. The new group will evaluate ideas from companies and scientists in five categories: oil detection, wellhead control, both traditional and alternative clean-up technologies, and damage restoration, said Commander Howard Wright, a Coast Guard spokesman. The group will be independent of BP’s online efforts to assess new ideas. The decision follows a report by Bloomberg News that BP has so far tested only four of almost 35,000 ideas submitted and implemented none. Under the new federally run system, proposals thought to be of benefit will be brought immediately to the attention of the National Incident Command, headed by Admiral Thad Allen , Wright said. “There has been a lot of concern that there are significant ideas not getting full voice,” Wright said in a telephone interview today. “The government wanted to make sure that all the best technology is being applied and there was good oversight of that process.” The new group will include representatives from the Coast Guard, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Interior, Environmental Protection Agency and Department of Agriculture, Wright said. To contact the reporter on this story: Pat Wechsler in New York at pwechsler@bloomberg.net

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`Drill, Baby, Drill’ May Haunt Republicans Seeking to Taint Obama on Spill

June 3, 2010

By Patrick O’Connor June 4 (Bloomberg) — Republicans’ embrace of offshore oil drilling and their skepticism of “big” government may hamper the party’s efforts to gain politically from President Barack Obama ’s handling of the disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour , who heads the Republican Governors Association, has said the BP Plc oil spill that followed the April 20 explosion of a deepwater rig is no reason for the U.S. to abandon offshore oil and gas exploration. As oil washes ashore in Gulf Coast states, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal , also a Republican, sent a letter to Obama this week expressing “grave concerns” with the president’s decision to suspend activity at 33 deepwater rigs. “They’re kind of stuck because they’re the party of ’Drill, Baby, Drill,’” said David Lanoue , head of the political science department of the University of Alabama, referring to a Republican slogan during the 2008 presidential campaign. “If you’re an ambitious Republican governor, where do you go with this?” Jindal, a critic of the administration’s spill response and a possible 2012 presidential candidate, has stressed his belief in limited government. In a nationally televised response to an Obama speech to Congress on Feb. 24, 2009, Jindal said “the strength of America is not found in government.” Hurricane Katrina Noting that some then sought a government rescue “from the economic storms raging all around us,” he said “those of us who lived through Hurricane Katrina — we have our doubts.” Jindal, 38, refused about $98 million in unemployment aid that was part of Obama’s 2009 economic stimulus measure. In the current crisis, he has prodded federal officials to construct 128 miles of sand walls in the Gulf to stem the flow of oil seeping into wetlands. He won a concession this week when the government told him BP will pay for that construction. The first segment is expected to cost $45 million, Jindal said. Polls show Americans have grown frustrated with Obama as BP and its partners fail to stem the oil gushing into the Gulf. A CBS News survey released May 25 showed more Americans disapprove of Obama’s handling of the disaster than approve it. Some Republicans have said the spill will become Obama’s Hurricane Katrina, an enduring stigma that damages his presidency as much as the federal response to the 2005 Gulf Coast storm hurt then-President George W. Bush . Heightened Scrutiny As criticism mounted, Obama increased government scrutiny of BP and the other companies involved in the spill. The Justice Department announced plans this week to begin criminal and civil investigations. Obama, who made two inspection trips to the Gulf Coast last month, will again visit the region today. Barbour, Jindal and other Republicans are maintaining their support for offshore oil drilling for economic and ideological reasons. In his letter to Obama, Jindal said state officials estimate the administration’s suspension order for the 33 rigs will cause the loss of 3,000 to 6,000 Louisiana jobs in the next two to three weeks and as many as 20,000 if the moratorium persists. ‘Terrible Catastrophe’ Barbour, another possible 2012 presidential contender, said in a May 3 interview on CNN that the leak could become “a terrible catastrophe” if BP and the federal government couldn’t stop the flow. Still, he said, that was no reason to abandon offshore drilling in the Gulf that produces 30 percent of domestic oil and gas. “We’ve had a terrible accident,” said Barbour, 62. “We need to get to the bottom of it, but we don’t need to shut it down.” Republicans run a risk of looking too sympathetic to the oil industry, Lanoue said. “The public has decided that the villain here is BP,” he said. Republicans “don’t want to look like they’re carrying water for BP.” In Congress, Democrats have focused much of their attention on the spill’s financial consequences, pushing legislation to lift the $75 million ceiling on economic damages that companies must bear for such incidents. A measure to raise the cap to $10 billion was blocked May 14 by a Republican, Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who said she was concerned that such a limit would force smaller petroleum refiners out of the market. Republican Senators Jeff Sessions of Alabama and David Vitter of Louisiana are proposing tying a new cap to a company’s profits, a move they say would shield firms from going bankrupt. Crist, Rubio In Florida, where oil threatens state beaches, a Republican’s embrace of an activist federal agenda drove him from the party. Governor Charlie Crist , peppered with criticism in his bid for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination stemming from his support for Obama’s stimulus plan, decided in April to run for the office as an independent. Marco Rubio , the Republican Senate candidate who helped push Crist from the party, is acknowledging the federal government may need to take over the spill clean-up. “Priority number one has got to be focus on preventing this from getting worse,” Rubio told a Jacksonville audience on May 25, according to the Florida Times-Union. “If that means the federal government has to step in and take over than that’s what needs to happen.” To contact the reporter for this story: Patrick O’Connor in Washington at poconnor14@bloomberg.net

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Facebook’s 500 Million Users Draw Fourfold Jump in Number of Advertisers

June 2, 2010

By Brian Womack June 2 (Bloomberg) — Facebook Inc. , owner of the world’s largest social-networking site, said its advertisers have more than quadrupled since the start of 2009 as marketers aim to get their products before a growing global audience. Facebook, which has been opening offices around the world to serve ad clients, doubled the number of salespeople last year from 2008, according to an e-mailed statement. The company didn’t disclose the number of advertisers or salespeople. Companies are boosting ad spending after a lull during the recession in a bid to reach consumers who spend long stretches on the Internet. Facebook, which has more than 500 million users, counts Procter & Gamble Co. , Toys “R” Us Inc. and Virgin America Inc. among its customers. It’s relying on ads to maintain sales growth and lay the groundwork for a possible initial public offering. “We’re very well positioned as people come out of this current economic situation,” Mike Murphy , vice president of global sales, said in an interview at Facebook’s headquarters in Palo Alto, California. “What we’ve become is absolutely core to marketing campaigns.” Facebook sells ads that are placed on the home pages of users, where the latest comments, pictures and links from their friends are posted. The ads also show up next to profile pages, which may include a person’s information such as gender or birth date. Adidas Marketing Adidas AG has used Facebook to promote its youth-focused Originals label, said Chris Barbour, who leads global digital marketing for the company’s Sport Style unit. Adidas, the world’s second-largest sporting-goods maker, tries to target users regionally to give the brand a personal touch, he said. “Wherever our fans are, we’re going to use Facebook to speak to them,” Barbour said. “And we’re going to try to speak to them in a locally relevant way.” The company ran ads this year to drive more users to its Originals page on Facebook, which features new products and user discussions, he said. Three times as many people signed up to be “fans” of the page during the campaign, compared with the typical rate, he said. Facebook ran 176 billion display ads in the U.S. in the first quarter, up from 70.7 billion a year earlier, according to research firm ComScore Inc. in Reston, Virginia. Yahoo, Microsoft Its growth comes as a threat to rivals Yahoo! Inc. and Microsoft Corp. Facebook has emerged as the largest site for display ads, with a market share of 16 percent, rising from 11 percent in the fourth quarter. That topped Yahoo, which had a 12 percent share, down from 13 percent in the previous period. ComScore doesn’t include the ads that Yahoo places on websites it doesn’t own. Microsoft had 5.5 percent. Facebook also became the most visited website in March, overtaking longtime leader Google Inc. for the first time, according to Experian Hitwise, a research firm in New York. Even as companies ramp up spending, privacy challenges threaten to curb advertiser interest if it leads to a slowdown in Facebook’s user growth, said Debra Aho Williamson , an analyst at market-research firm EMarketer Inc. in Seattle. Facebook faced growing criticism over how it handles privacy after announcing features in April that enabled more sharing with outside sites. Consumer groups filed a complaint with the Federal Trade Commission, and some users dropped the service. Responding to the criticism, Facebook introduced new privacy settings last week that make it easier for users to protect their information. The company is also making less data publicly available. ‘Pay Attention’ The new settings should “help us scale the service to millions and millions of more people,” Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg , 26, said last week. The privacy complaints had no meaningful impact on Facebook usage, he said. Companies should keep a close eye on user growth numbers in coming months, EMarketer’s Williamson said. Users might decide to hide some personal information used by advertisers to target customers, she said. Facebook had 519.1 million users in April, up from 411 million in September, according to ComScore. For now, the user growth presents a big enticement for advertisers, Williamson said. “Any large numbers like that make advertisers say, ‘Wow, I need to pay attention to this.’” To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Womack in San Francisco at Bwomack1@bloomberg.net

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Evans Signals Europe’s Crisis Will Delay Fed Rate Increase `A Little Bit’

May 30, 2010

By Aki Ito May 31 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans indicated that the European sovereign debt crisis will prompt the U.S. central bank to delay raising interest rates. Evans told reporters in Seoul today that he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the Fed’s policy of keeping rates low “gets extended just a little bit.” Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser , who is attending the same event, said separately that “how the crisis in Europe ends up affecting the economy will dictate how we will respond.” Today’s comments underscore the attention global policy makers are paying to the potential consequences of the European crisis sparked by ballooning fiscal deficits from Greece to Spain and Portugal. In Asia, central banks from Australia to Indonesia and South Korea are projected to keep rates unchanged this week as they gauge the effect on the global recovery. “The European situation adds uncertainty to the economic outlook,” Evans said at a press briefing while attending a conference hosted by the Bank of Korea. He said lower-than- expected demand for U.S. exports because of slower growth in Europe will “dampen the recovery a little bit.” U.S. central bankers on April 28 kept the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent, where it has been since December 2008, and said “subdued” inflation and high unemployment are likely to keep rates “exceptionally low.” Low Inflation It’s appropriate to keep an accommodative monetary policy for now because inflation is “seriously under-running” price stability and unemployment is “very high,” said Evans, who along with Plosser isn’t a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year. “But, if the situation turns rapidly, if inflation expectations were to bounce back in a way that we weren’t expecting,” the Fed “will respond more quickly,” he added. Plosser said he will “wait and see” how events in Europe might affect Fed policy. “It’s certainly true that there are things that could change the pace of our exit strategy, but I don’t see those happening as of yet,” he said. Fed officials to date have indicated the damage to the U.S. economy’s expansion from Europe will be limited. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said in a Bloomberg Television interview last week that the “most likely outcome” is shaving “a tenth or two off my growth forecast for this year.” St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in a May 26 speech in London that the European crisis “will probably fall short of becoming a worldwide recessionary shock.” At the same time, evidence of rising stress in bank funding markets spurred the Fed to reopen currency-swap lines with central banks from the euro region, U.K., Canada, Switzerland and Japan this month. Stall Recovery “A deeper contraction in Europe associated with sharp financial dislocations would have the potential to stall the recovery of the entire global economy, and this scenario would have far more serious consequences for U.S. trade and economic growth,” Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo said May 20 in testimony to House Financial Services subcommittees, making the case for the restarting of the swaps. Bank of Korea Governor Kim Choong Soo yesterday proposed an “institutionalization” of swaps to help establish a global safety net. To contact the reporter on this story: Aki Ito in Seoul at aito16@bloomberg.net

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Revolving Door Between BP And Its Regulator Getting More Attention

May 26, 2010

WASHINGTON — At a 2005 workshop, a senior official in the U.S. government’s Minerals Management Service raised concerns about ultra-deepwater drilling and included the bullet point, “Few or no regulations or standards.” Within two years, Jim Grant left his post as chief of staff of the government’s Gulf of Mexico region to take a job with BP PLC – one of the companies his former agency regulated in its oversight of offshore drilling. Grant’s change is one example of the revolving door between the Interior Department’s MMS and the oil industry, which increasingly has the attention of Congress, the Obama administration and watchdog groups after the disastrous BP oil spill at an ultra-deepwater rig in the Gulf of Mexico. Just this week, a government report said drilling regulators have been so close to the industry they’ve been accepting gifts from oil and gas companies and even negotiating to go work for them. As BP’s regulatory compliance and environmental manager for the Gulf of Mexico strategic performance unit, Grant has weighed in on several offshore drilling proposals by his former federal employer and other government agencies. Last fall, speaking at a U.S. ocean policy task force, Grant cautioned the group to “carefully weigh policies that may establish exclusionary zones, disrupt the MMS leasing program or affect opportunities for economic growth,” according to a statement posted at WhiteHouse.gov. He said BP supports access to areas previously off-limits to leasing, such as the eastern Gulf of Mexico. “It is our opinion that economic development of ocean resources is compatible with responsible ocean stewardship,” he said. President Barack Obama made pledges during the campaign to limit the influence of special interests and promises now to end the “cozy relationship” between the oil industry and federal regulators, which he said had existed for years and into his own administration. Interior Secretary Ken Salazar acknowledged at a Senate hearing last week that there has been a revolving door problem at his agency. The new report by Interior’s inspector general flagged the issue, too. “Of greatest concern to me is the environment in which these inspectors operate – particularly the ease with which they move between industry and government,” wrote Acting Inspector General Mary Kendall. Kendall said the investigation found that even after starting job negotiations with Island Operating Co., an MMS inspector conducted four inspections of the same company’s platforms – and found no problems. Soon after, the unidentified inspector resigned to work for the company. The revolving door can undermine government regulation in several ways. Former government workers who move to industries they once regulated can take advantage of personal relationships at their former agencies on behalf of their new companies. They can exploit loopholes in regulations based on their knowledge of the federal bureaucracy. And even before leaving, government employees hoping to one day land high-paying jobs with companies they regulate might be tempted to ease off. MMS has long been targeted by government investigators, lawmakers and watchdog groups. In 2008, an investigation by Interior’s inspector general described a “culture of substance abuse and promiscuity” at the minerals agency, finding that workers at the MMS royalty collection office in Denver partied, had sex and used drugs with energy company representatives. Employees also accepted gifts, ski trips and golf outings. Then-Inspector General Earl E. Devaney assailed “a culture of ethical failure” and an agency rife with conflicts of interest. “To say that MMS has had a revolving door problem doesn’t even begin to describe how profoundly this agency has entangled itself with industry,” said Mandy Smithberger, an investigator with the Washington-based Project on Government Oversight, a private watchdog group. “The revolving door has spun so readily in this case that the lines between the regulators and the regulated are now virtually nonexistent.” The government restricts certain practices by federal workers. Government employees who participate in contracts, grants or lawsuits generally are barred forever from representing anyone before a federal department or court on that matter. For employees who supervised such matters in the final year of their government service, that ban lasts for two years. “Very senior” employees – such as Cabinet officers, the vice president and some high-level White House officials – are subject to a two-year cooling-off period, during which they are banned from contacting their former agencies or certain high-level executive branch employees in any federal agency. “Senior employees” – who include other presidential appointees – are subject to a one-year cooling-off period, although Obama made these people sign a pledge agreeing to extend it to two years as a condition of employment. Grant’s name surfaced at a congressional hearing when Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Fla., asked BP America President Lamar McKay about former Interior officials who worked at his company and about former BP officials who work for the Interior Department. Grant did not return telephone and e-mail messages seeking comment, and BP declined to discuss his employment. McKay also cited Sylvia Baca as someone who went from BP to Interior. She made the switch twice. In the Clinton administration, she served as the Interior Department’s assistant secretary for land and minerals management and worked as the department’s acting director of the Bureau of Land Management. In 2001, Baca joined BP, where she worked in several senior management positions. Last June, Salazar brought her back to Interior, tapping her for the position of deputy assistant secretary for land and minerals management. He cited her “professionalism and detailed knowledge of Interior’s land and energy responsibilities.” Asked about her hiring at a House hearing Wednesday, Deputy Interior Secretary David Hayes said that Baca has recused herself from the oil spill because of her prior employment with BP. “She has not been involved in offshore energy issues,” he added. More generally, the offshore drilling industry has tapped the government’s expertise and connections. The National Ocean Industries Association, an offshore energy trade group, has plucked its last two presidents from the ranks of former MMS directors. In March, Randall Luthi, who was MMS director from July 2007 through January of last year, took over the industry post, replacing Tom Fry, who had been president of the group since December 2000. Through a spokeswoman, Luthi declined an interview request. Fry did not return a message left through the National Marine Sanctuaries Foundation, where he serves as a trustee.

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Dan Dorfman: Hey, This Bullet-Proof Vest Doesn’t Work

May 24, 2010

Hey, what’s up with gold, supposedly the bullet-proof investment when things look like they’re going to hell (like now)? Somehow, the script got screwed up. Instead of roaring, gold is crawling, and not only that, it’s going backwards to boot. After tripling since 2001 and steadily ballooning in recent years to an all-time high a couple of weeks ago of $1,250.40 an ounce — about a 50% jump from its 2007 close of $833 and nearly a 15% gain from last year’s wrapup of $1,098.60 — the yellow metal is starting to tarnish. Last week alone, it dropped $54.40 or 4.4%. Granted, nothing goes up forever, but the sudden retreat by the investment darling of the flight-to- safety crowd into the $1,100s — coupled with growing predictions of more erosion ahead — seems totally out of line, given a slew of gold-buying catalysts. These include: –Europe’s worsening sovereign debt crisis. –A growing number of forecasts that Greece will default. –Swelling currency concerns, led by the collapsing Euro. –French President Sarkozy’s threat to pull France out of the Euro. –Burgeoning money printing world-wide, a sure harbinger of future inflation. –Fears that the European debt crisis will lead to a faltering global recovery, maybe even a recession. –Our exploding debt and deficit. –A warning by former Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill that the U.S. could go the way of Greece, that “if we don’t change course, we could become a basket case ourself.” –Increasing worries about bonds, including long-term U.S. Treasuries. –An increasingly erratic U.S. stock market, characterized by growing daily triple-digit losses in the Dow Industrials and the recent nasty one-day decline in the Dow of nearly 1,000 points. Actually, given world-wide financial turmoil and no indication of any let-up in sight, some gold traders think the metal should already be commanding a price tag of around $2,000. But even some bulls see additional weakness, with the metal, currently around $1,192, seen falling over the near term to $1,120 and perhaps even retesting $1,000. One concern, as a number of gold experts see it, is a worrisome contrary indicator, namely there are way too many bulls. “It’s a crowded trade on the upside,” says Larry Edelson, who monitors precious metals trends for Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla. and notes that sentiment readings show 98% of investors are bullish on gold. “Near term, it’s putting in a little top, says Edelson, who thinks the metal could drop to the $1,130-$1,150 range. One reason, he believes, that gold is being negatively impacted short term is stepped-up overseas demand for the U.S. dollar for safety purposes, although Edelson views such buying as tantamount “to jumping from the frying pan into the fire.” Although concerned about the near term outlook for gold, the analyst takes a far more positive view beyond that, arguing that it’s surely headed higher. Pointing in particular to the collapsing Euro and growing financial distress in the U.S., Edelson sees gold subsequently rising to $1,500 this year and on to $2,300 in 2011. As another positive for the metal, he notes that gold, before its recent spell of weakness, has been climbing even in the face of a rising greenback. “That’s proof positive of a crisis in the fiat currency system,” says Edelson. Taking a longer term view, he thinks gold should be part of every investor’s portfolio. His favorite is the physical gold itself, which can be purchased from such well known outfits as Monex; Manfra, Tordello and Brookes, a New York bullion dealer, and Kitco.com., an online dealer. As for individual stocks, he goes for the biggies, notably Barrick Gold., Goldcorp., and Newmont Mining. A fella who has made some excellent up and down calls on the direction of gold prices — in fact, he accurately predicted the recent weakness — is Mark Leibovit, editor of the VR Gold Letter in Sedona, Ariz. He drew my attention to several recent negative technical signs that suggest gold could continue its recent drop to around $1,060 an ounce, which would be equivalent to an overall retreat of say 15%. which Leibovit contends would represent a buying opportunity. One of those signs was what he calls a reversal pattern, which occurred when gold rose to higher highs during one recent trading session and then reversed to lower lows the following day. Another red flag was the failure of a couple of gold indexes — the Gold Bugs Index and the Philadelphia Gold Index — to accompany and confirm the metal’s recent rise to record highs. Leibovit cited the possibility of a strengthening Euro, which could hurt gold, maybe even lead to a retesting of the $1,000 price tag, but he thought a more likely course was the fear that the European debt crisis might expand, leading instead to a higher gold price. In any event, he thinks the wind is at gold’s back and views $2,000 or $3,000 as only a matter of time. A HuffPost reader in Brisbane, Australia, Cornel Campeanu, a chartist at Techpro.au.Com, e-mailed me with an entirely different scenario. Based on his work, he believes we are a short time away from a meltdown of biblical proportions in mining stocks, with such names as BH Billiton and Rio Tinto leading the charge. As for gold, he sees a potential drop of hundreds of dollars an ounce, preceded by a possible near term drop to $1,120. Campeanu, it should be duly noted, is spouting contrarian views. Most market pros I talk to overwhelmingly feel that long term, the outlook for gold remains golden. What do you think? E-mail me at Dandordan@aol.com

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Twitter Investor Mike Maples Outperforms Venture Firms That Rejected Him

May 22, 2010

By Ari Levy May 22 (Bloomberg) — Mike Maples says he came to Silicon Valley from Texas in 2005 as a “washed-up” corporate-software executive aspiring to be a venture capitalist. Unable to land a job with a half-dozen firms, he put his own money to work. Five years later, his stakes in Twitter Inc., Digg Inc., SolarWinds Inc. and Chegg Inc. have turned Maples into a celebrity on Menlo Park’s Sand Hill Road, where he’s investing alongside the same firms that didn’t make him a partner. And he’s turning a profit while the rest of the industry slumps. Venture firms have lost an average of about 1 percent annually over the past decade, according to Cambridge Associates. Maples’s $25,000 investment in Twitter four years ago had multiplied by 26 times as of September, and his $500,000 stake in textbook rental company Chegg may be up even more. By catching companies at their earliest stages, sometimes before they have business plans, Maples is buying on the cheap. He also makes smaller investments than firms with billion-dollar funds, letting him tap into startups that need less capital. “We can do the wacky controversial thing that can’t make it through a venture firm,” said Maples, 42. “If the company is awesome, we’re going to be in early at such a low valuation that it’s just going to cover all sins.” For Maples, the goal is to find what he calls “thunder lizards,” a term he used at least 18 times in an hourlong interview. It’s a reference to Godzilla, which “was hatched from radioactive atomic eggs and swam across the Pacific and destroyed Tokyo,” Maples said. A thunder lizard is a company that disrupts its industry, earns a 100-fold return and makes up for all of a fund’s bad bets, he says. Some Misfires Twitter, Chegg and other investments have the potential to be thunder lizards, Maples said. Not all of his bets have panned out, though. B-Side Entertainment , which ran websites for film festivals, closed this year, and the microblogging site Pownce shut down in 2008. His biggest dud so far was an investment he didn’t make. Maples declined an early opportunity to invest in Zynga Game Network Inc., the maker of Facebook games such as “FarmVille” and “Mafia Wars.” Zynga is now worth as much as $3.3 billion, according to a February report from SharesPost Inc. and Next Up! Research. Though his Southern twang stands out in Silicon Valley, Maples isn’t a technology outsider. His father, also named Mike, was an executive at Microsoft Corp. and International Business Machines Corp. Bill Gates attended his wedding, and Maples studied engineering at Stanford University, near Palo Alto. By the time he returned to California after more than a decade in Texas, Maples had helped take two companies public, including Austin-based Motive Inc., which he co-founded in 1997. Sand Hill Road Maples says he looked for a job up and down Sand Hill Road, the center of the venture industry and home to Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers , Sequoia Capital and Benchmark Capital. Unable to find a position as a partner, he got two stints as an entrepreneur in residence — first at Foundation Capital and then at August Capital. While at August, Maples earned a reputation for spotting unusual investments, says Andy Rappaport , a partner there since 1996. “A lot of the stuff he was finding and working on and showing to us was different than many of the things that would have gotten our attention,” he said. “He was catching good entrepreneurs.” New Breed Rappaport puts Maples in a new category of investors taking advantage of open-source software and cloud computing. Those trends have pushed down the price of funding a startup. SV Angel, run by veteran investor Ron Conway , and Lowercase Capital, started by former Google Inc. executive Chris Sacca , have similar strategies — as do Baseline Ventures and First Round Capital. They routinely write checks for $500,000 or less. The success of the approach is also drawing more competition from traditional venture capitalists, which are making smaller investments and betting on untested entrepreneurs. Maples took a chance on Twitter when it had another name and a different business. He was a fan of co-founder Evan Williams , who had previously started companies focused on blogging and podcasting. By last year, Twitter was valued at $1 billion, according to a person familiar with the matter. Maples put $500,000 into textbook-rental service Chegg in 2007 after meetings with co-founders Osman Rashid and Aayush Phumbhra at a Starbucks in Menlo Park. At the time, he wasn’t even certain college students would rent books. Chegg’s Growth Chegg later attracted funding from Kleiner Perkins and Foundation Capital. Students at more than 6,400 campuses now use Chegg’s service, and sales may exceed $100 million this year, two people familiar with the matter said in November. That month the company raised $112 million in funding. Chegg was the first investment of Maples’s $10 million fund, which he raised from friends and family in 2006 after putting his own money into Twitter, Digg and SolarWinds. Two years later, pension plans wanted to invest, so Maples raised a second fund, with $35 million of institutional money. His funds are dwarfed by more established venture firms. New Enterprise Associates raised a $2.5 billion fund this year, while Norwest Venture Partners and Khosla Ventures started funds larger than $1 billion in 2009. In March, Maples changed his firm’s name to Floodgate from Maples Investments and promoted Ann Miura-Ko, a Stanford doctoral student, from investing partner to co-founder. They’re planning to raise a third fund later this year, Maples said. Ngmoco Deal Opportunities are flowing his way from people like Digg co- founder Kevin Rose , who says he introduces Maples to any promising entrepreneur he meets. In 2008, Rose told Maples about Ngmoco, a maker of games for Apple Inc. ’s iPhone. Since Maples invested, Ngmoco has created 20 top games in Apple’s App Store, and it added Kleiner Perkins and Norwest as investors. “I brought Ngmoco to him when they were just trying to get started out, before they had raised any money,” Rose said. “Now they’re killing it.” Last year, Maples got a call from Roger McNamee , co-founder of private-equity firm Elevation Partners, about Wordnik , a Web startup that’s trying to capture all of the world’s words and their meanings. McNamee invested his own money in the company to get it started. He introduced founder Erin McKean to Maples when it was time for a round of funding. “Once you’ve invested in Twitter and Digg and a few other things, then people want to be associated with the guy who’s done that,” said McNamee, a technology investor for more than 20 years. “I know Mike well and want to work with him on anything I think is important.” To contact the reporter on this story: Ari Levy in San Francisco at alevy5@bloomberg.net

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Twitter Investor Mike Maples Outperforms Venture Firms That Rejected Him

May 22, 2010

By Ari Levy May 22 (Bloomberg) — Mike Maples says he came to Silicon Valley from Texas in 2005 as a “washed-up” corporate-software executive aspiring to be a venture capitalist. Unable to land a job with a half-dozen firms, he put his own money to work. Five years later, his stakes in Twitter Inc., Digg Inc., SolarWinds Inc. and Chegg Inc. have turned Maples into a celebrity on Menlo Park’s Sand Hill Road, where he’s investing alongside the same firms that didn’t make him a partner. And he’s turning a profit while the rest of the industry slumps. Venture firms have lost an average of about 1 percent annually over the past decade, according to Cambridge Associates. Maples’s $25,000 investment in Twitter four years ago had multiplied by 26 times as of September, and his $500,000 stake in textbook rental company Chegg may be up even more. By catching companies at their earliest stages, sometimes before they have business plans, Maples is buying on the cheap. He also makes smaller investments than firms with billion-dollar funds, letting him tap into startups that need less capital. “We can do the wacky controversial thing that can’t make it through a venture firm,” said Maples, 42. “If the company is awesome, we’re going to be in early at such a low valuation that it’s just going to cover all sins.” For Maples, the goal is to find what he calls “thunder lizards,” a term he used at least 18 times in an hourlong interview. It’s a reference to Godzilla, which “was hatched from radioactive atomic eggs and swam across the Pacific and destroyed Tokyo,” Maples said. A thunder lizard is a company that disrupts its industry, earns a 100-fold return and makes up for all of a fund’s bad bets, he says. Some Misfires Twitter, Chegg and other investments have the potential to be thunder lizards, Maples said. Not all of his bets have panned out, though. B-Side Entertainment , which ran websites for film festivals, closed this year, and the microblogging site Pownce shut down in 2008. His biggest dud so far was an investment he didn’t make. Maples declined an early opportunity to invest in Zynga Game Network Inc., the maker of Facebook games such as “FarmVille” and “Mafia Wars.” Zynga is now worth as much as $3.3 billion, according to a February report from SharesPost Inc. and Next Up! Research. Though his Southern twang stands out in Silicon Valley, Maples isn’t a technology outsider. His father, also named Mike, was an executive at Microsoft Corp. and International Business Machines Corp. Bill Gates attended his wedding, and Maples studied engineering at Stanford University, near Palo Alto. By the time he returned to California after more than a decade in Texas, Maples had helped take two companies public, including Austin-based Motive Inc., which he co-founded in 1997. Sand Hill Road Maples says he looked for a job up and down Sand Hill Road, the center of the venture industry and home to Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers , Sequoia Capital and Benchmark Capital. Unable to find a position as a partner, he got two stints as an entrepreneur in residence — first at Foundation Capital and then at August Capital. While at August, Maples earned a reputation for spotting unusual investments, says Andy Rappaport , a partner there since 1996. “A lot of the stuff he was finding and working on and showing to us was different than many of the things that would have gotten our attention,” he said. “He was catching good entrepreneurs.” New Breed Rappaport puts Maples in a new category of investors taking advantage of open-source software and cloud computing. Those trends have pushed down the price of funding a startup. SV Angel, run by veteran investor Ron Conway , and Lowercase Capital, started by former Google Inc. executive Chris Sacca , have similar strategies — as do Baseline Ventures and First Round Capital. They routinely write checks for $500,000 or less. The success of the approach is also drawing more competition from traditional venture capitalists, which are making smaller investments and betting on untested entrepreneurs. Maples took a chance on Twitter when it had another name and a different business. He was a fan of co-founder Evan Williams , who had previously started companies focused on blogging and podcasting. By last year, Twitter was valued at $1 billion, according to a person familiar with the matter. Maples put $500,000 into textbook-rental service Chegg in 2007 after meetings with co-founders Osman Rashid and Aayush Phumbhra at a Starbucks in Menlo Park. At the time, he wasn’t even certain college students would rent books. Chegg’s Growth Chegg later attracted funding from Kleiner Perkins and Foundation Capital. Students at more than 6,400 campuses now use Chegg’s service, and sales may exceed $100 million this year, two people familiar with the matter said in November. That month the company raised $112 million in funding. Chegg was the first investment of Maples’s $10 million fund, which he raised from friends and family in 2006 after putting his own money into Twitter, Digg and SolarWinds. Two years later, pension plans wanted to invest, so Maples raised a second fund, with $35 million of institutional money. His funds are dwarfed by more established venture firms. New Enterprise Associates raised a $2.5 billion fund this year, while Norwest Venture Partners and Khosla Ventures started funds larger than $1 billion in 2009. In March, Maples changed his firm’s name to Floodgate from Maples Investments and promoted Ann Miura-Ko, a Stanford doctoral student, from investing partner to co-founder. They’re planning to raise a third fund later this year, Maples said. Ngmoco Deal Opportunities are flowing his way from people like Digg co- founder Kevin Rose , who says he introduces Maples to any promising entrepreneur he meets. In 2008, Rose told Maples about Ngmoco, a maker of games for Apple Inc. ’s iPhone. Since Maples invested, Ngmoco has created 20 top games in Apple’s App Store, and it added Kleiner Perkins and Norwest as investors. “I brought Ngmoco to him when they were just trying to get started out, before they had raised any money,” Rose said. “Now they’re killing it.” Last year, Maples got a call from Roger McNamee , co-founder of private-equity firm Elevation Partners, about Wordnik , a Web startup that’s trying to capture all of the world’s words and their meanings. McNamee invested his own money in the company to get it started. He introduced founder Erin McKean to Maples when it was time for a round of funding. “Once you’ve invested in Twitter and Digg and a few other things, then people want to be associated with the guy who’s done that,” said McNamee, a technology investor for more than 20 years. “I know Mike well and want to work with him on anything I think is important.” To contact the reporter on this story: Ari Levy in San Francisco at alevy5@bloomberg.net

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Rosalia Gitau: Where Is the Corruption Rhetoric in the US?

May 21, 2010

I was having a few drinks with friends the other night at a dark bar in Paris. Much like my last HP posting, my company was principally African. We were talking about all sorts of things, from how much we loved one of our co-hort’s, Parselelo Kantai’s, new fiction (his story, “You Wreck Her” was just short-listed for the Caine Prize) to how no matter how long we live in Paris there will still be things we never quite understand (we debated this after having been moved from one section of the bar to another, for no apparent reason). However, like all my conversations with my African friends all roads lead inevitably to one topic: corruption. Parselelo, a writer, journalist and Nairobi stalwart lamented: “Everyone talks about corruption such that it doesn’t even mean anything anymore!” What he said struck me because it was as true as it was untrue, its veracity depending on which part of the world one resides. It is true that for most Africans, corruption is so often discussed, debated and denounced by our politicians that it has literally lost its meaning. Whereas, the World Bank defines it as “the abuse of public office for private gain”, for many Africans, corruption is merely a moral proxy. On a survey conducted by a team I was working with in Sierra Leone, we found that the many Sierra Leoneans thought corruption comprised of litany of bad deeds ranging from adultery to divorce. Pick up any newspaper in a cosmopolitan African city and corruption allegations are flung at one politician against another, the same way the American media uses infidelity to gauge the integrity of the country’s political leadership. In the wake of the global financial crisis, however, there is a notable absence of corruption mud-slinging in the American press. The unscrupulous conduct of a few costs many their jobs, homes, and security. These raiders were rewarded, as big banks got even bigger bailouts, courtesy of you, the taxpayer. As an African with corruption constantly on the brain, I was perplexed: where was corruption rhetoric in the US? If this were Nairobi, the media would have been in an absolute frenzy. The crisis would have been dissected within the context of corruption: from the revolving door between the Department of Treasury and Wall Street, to the choice of bailed-out banks and SEC indictments. Instead, a quick Google search will reveal that the phrase ‘corruption’ + ‘global financial crisis’ (and its variants) renders just one result from a major American media source, namely Forbes magazine which commissioned an article from economist Daniel Kaufman. Daniel Kaufman has a long and illustrious career in anti-corruption work and research. He is a current senior fellow at the Brookings Institute and the former World Bank good governance director. With extensive South America experience, Kaufman has been figuratively screaming for the anti-corruption movement to take notice of what he terms legal corruption or legal acts committed by private entities to gain undue influence. In a Forbes exclusive, Mr. Kaufman explains the link between corruption and the financial crisis . Kaufman breaks down what he has been arguing for years, namely that corruption is more than just handing a politician an envelope filled with cash. Rather, it also includes private persons or companies gaining undue influence over public decision-makers in a range of ways — most of which are perfectly legal albeit unscrupulous. Daniel Kaufman argues that when legal corruption is allowed to continue unfettered, state capture results, where politicians find themselves accountable to private entities rather than their constituencies. Kaufman argues that if current corruption indices accounted for legal corruption, the US would substantially drop in the rankings, given the amount of influence corporations currently exercise over American politicians. Whereas current corruption indices position the US as one of the least corrupt countries in the world, when accounting for legal corruption, the US would rank among the bottom half of countries, below Colombia, Botswana, and South Africa. The US exercises one of the most aggressive anti-corruption agendas in the world, with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) executing the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) to the limits of this law. Record-breaking fines grab head-lines as do recent moves to pursue jail-time for individual perpetrators. However, these efforts are limited, since even the FCPA equates corruption to bribery. Without those suitcases stuffed with cash, there is no smoking gun to tie the architects of the global crisis to the FCPA and pursue them accordingly — unless, we move for a broader definition of corruption. Americans are not oblivious to corruption, rather we just discuss it narrowly within the context of politicians receiving cash bribes. When such events occur, there is significant media interest, as evinced by the attention former US Congressman William Jefferson (D-La) received for hiding thousands of dollars in illicit funds in his freezer. That got people talking. Undeniably, the US sets the pace for creating international legal frameworks, anti-corruption law being one of them. Indeed, the internationalization of corruption law was largely due to US efforts to export FCPA provisions abroad in order to level the playing field for US businesses. Arguably, a more appropriate definition to address corruption today would be the abuse of public trust for private gain. The US has the resources and leverage to pursue such a definition both at home and abroad, and it would be in the interest of both businesses and consumers around the world if they did so. What do you think?

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Jill S. Brown: As Seen On TV: How to Make the Next Big Thing

May 17, 2010

I think that old adage about the American dream being a house with a white picket fence is pretty stale. If you ask me, I think the new American dream is coming up with a great idea and making it a profitable success… then the house, the fence and if you’re a humanitarian, even a 501c3 may follow. Inventors are a special breed of person obsessed with solving problems and believing they can create the next big thing every person or household will need, want and use. The goal of most every inventor is to land a licensing deal and obtain manufacturing capital to turn their gizmo, gadget or concept into an overnight sensation. Products like Oxi-Clean, Sham Wow, Magic Jack, the Magic Bullet and the Snuggie have made a lucky few many millions of dollars. Who knew an airline blanket with sleeves would become all the rage amongst college kids or a mini blender-food processor would become the hottest selling small home appliance? Well, someone had the prescience to know this and put the money up to market these products. This past week in San Diego a couple of dozen inventors were hoping to get discovered by the people who make the next big things happen. They were exhibiting their inventions in the Inventors Pavillion at Response Expo , which is one of the main conventions geared toward the Direct Response industry. What’s direct response? Basically any ad that asks you to “call now” or visit a website for more information. Infomercials fall into the category of direct response, and it’s an industry that can take you from rags to riches. John Yarrington, publisher of Response Magazine, says, “if you’re an inventor with a great idea sitting around in Iowa, how are you going to get your invention in front of the best marketers in the world?” You come to a convention like this where you can meet the players from the companies who made products like Topsy Turvy (the upside down tomato planter), PedEgg, PediPaws , SpaceBag , and LifeLock household names. Some of these inventors have been in the game for years, but most were new to the pitching game. All of these inventors have one thing in common. They are all looking for licensing deals and help with manufacturing. Here are a few of the items that might catch your attention some night when you’re flipping channels at two in the morning. The VertaCore, by veteran inventor Eliot James Geeting (EJG Product Development) has already licensed around 20 different products, and this was far from his first rodeo. This time around he was showing off his three latest inventions, one of which is a new fitness device that trains your core standing up rather than lying down. The problem Eliot says he was trying to solve was how to get a good core workout without lying down on the floor. Cathi Reyes, a stay at home mom who likes to stay fit, came up with the Aqua Bag , an insulated bottle holder, wallet and purse all in one cute little bag you can sling over your shoulder. A semiconductor engineer named Chris Anatasi is hoping his Quick Kut will be the next tool no household can do without. He created it for cutting open those frustrating factory sealed plastic encasings that your scissors are no match for. Did anyone see that Larry David scene against plastic packaging on Curb Your Enthusiasm ? It could have been the commercial for this product. Here’s a product that’s a real head-scratcher. Need a better memory and a clean head of hair at the same time? Be on the lookout for “Brain Wash” shampoo and conditioner containing ginkgo biloba. The sales person I spoke to claims this product is able to get the memory-improving herb right into your blood stream while making your hair smell like grapefruit and pina colada! The same company, Evergreen Research was also hocking their Appetite Control Button (an aromatherapy button you wear that supposedly makes you less hungry) and an insect repelling bracelet. Some inventors have spent a lifetime working on one pet project. Perhaps the cutest, crowd-pleasing invention was Elisa Nardulli’s “Lace Replace.” It’s a shoelace replacement system that puts cute little novelty buttons in the eyelets and has a zipper in between so there’s no more lacing up your shoes – you simply zip them up. She came up with idea 18 years ago when trying to teach her daughter how to lace her shoes. Also works for your grandma with arthritis! She doesn’t have a website but you can inquire at LaceReplace@yahoo.com. But you don’t need to spend decades on an idea. The Gas Mileage Doubler created by Paul Dieges, a civil engineer, supposedly came up with his concept 6 weeks before the show. It’s supposed to be like a small generator on wheels that you tow behind your car, only you’re not really towing it…rather it’s pushing your car. Just plug it in overnight and, they say, voila! You’re just paying one cent per mile according to the Dr. Tom Swift, a history professor and wannabe capitalist. How much would you pay for a product like this? They say it’ll be offered for $39.97, but I think they’d better leave the numbers to direct response capitalists who figure out price points for a living. Green inventions are gold. The “Instant Organic Garden” wasn’t quite ready for prime time (no website or official name yet), but I suspect an easy to use organic garden planting product could be a hit. For more info you can contact jmellesmoen@gmail.com. Also in the green camp was an invention to keep your kitchen clear of recycling clutter. A Canadian realtor came up with a prototype for a mini trash compactor called the Duzall . Finally, one was right up my alley. How would you like a clip bag that yells at you when you’re about to dive into a bag of potato chips? A cross between a hallmark greeting card and a bag clip, the Record O Clip lets you record messages to yourself like, “step away from the Cheetos you lard ass and go the gym.” If only it came with a private trainer that actually threw you in the car and took you to the gym too. Now that would be a valuable feature for one low price of $9.99!

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Secretive Speed Traders In Spotlight After Flash Crash On Wall Street

May 15, 2010

NEW YORK — If you saw a penny on the sidewalk, would you pick it up? You may think it’s not worth the effort, but a breed of investors who have been in the news do. Using super-fast computers, high-frequency traders in effect bend down to pick up pennies lying about in the stock market – then do it again, sometimes thousands of times a second. More than a week after the Dow Jones industrial average fell nearly 1,000 points, its biggest intraday drop ever, regulators are still sifting through buy and sell orders to figure out what sparked it. One big focus are orders placed by high-frequency traders, or HFTs, and for good reason. These quick-buck firms barely existed a few years ago but now account for two-thirds of all U.S. stock trading. In other words, all those TV pictures of the stately New York Stock Exchange building on the evening news are an illusion. The real action on Wall Street is far away in Kansas City, Mo., and in New Jersey, in towns like Carteret and Red Bank, where HFTs named Tradebot and Wolverine and Tradeworx ply their trade. High-frequency trading firms, which number over 100, use computers programmed with complex mathematical formulas to comb markets for securities priced too high or too low because traders haven’t had to time to react to the latest data. The computers then buy or sell in a split second, locking in a profit. The opportunities seem hardly worth noting. They’re not just fleeting, but small, often a penny or less. But those pennies can add up to a lot of money, enough to draw the attention of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the giant Chicago hedge fund Citadel Investment and other big financial firms. In recent years they’ve paid hundreds of millions of dollars for stakes in high-frequency trading companies. The money has stoked what was already fierce competition among the firms for a leg up. To spot opportunities and act on them before others, HFTs are constantly hunting for faster computers. They also locate themselves close to the big exchanges’ data centers. That can cut their trade times by milliseconds. One way these traders make money is by exploiting the fact that stock indexes sometimes don’t immediately reflect falling or rising prices of their component stocks, said Manoj Narang, chief executive at Tradeworx of Red Bank, N.J. If Microsoft shares rise 5 percent but an index fund that includes it such as the SPDR S&P 500 lags by a fraction of second to adjust, his computers will automatically buy shares of SPDR S&P 500 at the lower price and then sell them again when they are fully valued. Or maybe Microsoft is trading in London at a penny less than it’s trading at the same moment in New York. A high-frequency trader will buy shares in London and wait for them to rise. Since the discrepancy lasts a mere fraction of a second, speed is key. Narang boasts it takes only 15 millionth of a second for his computers to place a buy or sell order after detecting an opportunity. Or, as he puts it, “If you try to pick up the penny, we’ll probably beat you to it.” So is that good or bad for the market? If you listen to HFTs, all their fast trading benefits big and small investors alike. More trading means more bids and asks for shares, and that cuts the time needed to find someone willing to buy what you’re selling or vice versa. Costs also fall. With more bids and asks, the difference between the price you seek and the price offered (what traders call the “spread”) will likely narrow. You get to keep more of your money. High-frequency traders see themselves as part of a long tradition of using technology to shake up Wall Street. For decades an order to buy or sell a security went to a person in a trader’s jacket standing on the floor of an exchange, often at the NYSE in Lower Manhattan. If you wanted to sell stock in General Electric, for instance, these so-called specialists would find a buyer. If they couldn’t find one, they bought it themselves. In exchange for their services, the specialists pocketed some of the difference between the price at which you were willing to buy and the price at which a GE holder was willing to sell. This system came under attack in the early 1980s from Nasdaq, a rival marketplace for stocks, which began using computers to make trades. The pitch was it could match buyers and sellers faster than humans, and for less money. Then, starting in the late ’90s, the NYSE specialists got hit again, this time with a series of blows: new rules encouraging computer matching of buyers and sellers, a shift to quote stock prices in minute increments of decimals instead of fractions, and a decision to cut the minimum spread that specialists or other middlemen could grab for themselves from 6.25 cents per share to a penny. “It used to be an oligopoly, an old boy’s club,” said Irene Aldridge, head of an HFT shop called Able Alpha Trading and author of “High-Frequency Trading.” “But now it’s a completely level field.” Critics of high-frequency trading say all this talk about narrowing spreads for ordinary investors distracts from a key problem: Split-second trading without human supervision is a recipe for disaster Exhibit A: the May 6 crash. One theory about the drop is that, unlike the NYSE, the new exchanges and trading networks catering to HFTs didn’t apply any “circuit breakers.” These are designed to halt trading momentarily during a freefall to stop selling from feeding on itself. In others words, without circuit breakers the computers went crazy. Another theory holds that it wasn’t quick-fire trading by HFTs that made things worse but a lack of it. Some reportedly pulled back when stocks started dropping, removing liquidity when it was needed the most. Whatever the answer, this much is true: These secretive firms are likely to grab the spotlight for a while now. And their trading might get even more frenetic. After the May 6 freefall, all manner of trading rules are up for debate. But it’s worth noting that until recently regulators were considering cutting the minimum spread again, possibly to half a penny. “People will be needing even better computers,” said author Aldridge.

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Dan Solin: Worst Advice in the World for Volatile Markets

May 11, 2010

Volatile markets bring out the worst in the financial media. They are so excited about all the attention they are getting, they feel compelled to provide endless, nonsensical advice to their beleaguered readers and viewers. Let me ask you this question: Why do you pay any attention to them? I can’t recall hearing the financial pundits predict the dramatic drop we experienced in the Dow this week. And few of them advised us to short the markets, or that the run-up (which they also did not predict) was a “selling opportunity.” Oddly, when the markets go bonkers, the networks turn to the same “experts” to explain what’s going on to viewers who were blindsided by their previous advice. It’s not surprising that the new insights are just as defective as the old advice. Here are the most common categories of flawed advice inundating investors: 1. The bull market is ending . I see. You have the ability to time the markets. You know when it is going to up or down. You are very unique. Every study I have seen of the track record of market timing gurus is dismal. If someone had this expertise, wouldn’t you think they would publish their track record so we could all marvel at it? Instead, legendary investors like Benjamin Graham have observed the opposite: “If I have noticed anything over these 60 years on Wall Street, it is that people do not succeed in forecasting what’s going to happen to the stock market.” 2. Flee to safety . Why are you “fleeing” to anything? Unless you are gambling, you have no exposure to stock market risk if your time horizon is less than five years. You don’t care what is happening today or tomorrow in the markets. If you have a longer time horizon, you have an appropriate asset allocation, which permits you to ride out the lows and wait for the markets to recover. 3. Focus on stocks that will not be affected by the global financial crises . Why would you “focus” on any individual stocks? You know the expected return of an individual stock is about the same as the index to which it belongs, but with significantly greater risk because of “idiosyncratic” or company-specific risk. You are better off sticking to a globally diversified portfolio of low cost index funds. 4. This is a “buying opportunity” for a specific stock. Really. Why are you so lucky? Do you believe the stock is priced too low by the market? What information about the stock do you know that is not public and taken instantly into account in pricing the stock? Down markets may or may not be a “buying opportunity” for any particular stock. However, you have no way of knowing, which means the risk is high that you might be wrong. Taking big risks is gambling, not investing. 5. Buy gold . So you believe that gold is mispriced? It is hardly a secret that the world is beset with a financial crises. Don’t you think that has been factored into the current price of gold? Don’t get me wrong, I don’t have a clue about the future price of gold. Every portfolio should have a percentage allocated to commodities, including gold, as well as all other asset classes. This issue is not “should you own gold?” It is, “should you overweight your portfolio in gold?” If you decide to do so, you should be aware of the risk you are taking. All of the advice has one theme in common: You must do something now! Intelligently constructed portfolios don’t take the temperature of the markets daily and act accordingly. They change when the investment objectives and tolerance for risk of the investor change. Investors control their portfolios. The media turns this basic principle on its head and encourages investors to let the markets control them. Don’t fall into this trap. The views set forth in this blog are the opinions of the author alone and may not represent the views of any firm or entity with whom he is affiliated. The data, information, and content on this blog are for information, education, and non-commercial purposes only. Returns from index funds do not represent the performance of any investment advisory firm. The information on this blog does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice and is limited to the dissemination of opinions on investing. No reader should construe these opinions as an offer of advisory services. Readers who require investment advice should retain the services of a competent investment professional. The information on this blog is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or class of securities mentioned herein. Furthermore, the information on this blog should not be construed as an offer of advisory services. Please note that the author does not recommend specific securities nor is he responsible for comments made by persons posting on this blog.

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EU Finance Chiefs Race to Ready Euro Stability Fund

May 9, 2010

By James G. Neuger and Gregory Viscusi May 9 (Bloomberg) — European Union finance ministers meet today to hammer out the details of an emergency fund to prevent a sovereign debt crisis from shattering confidence in the 11- year-old euro. Jolted into action by last week’s slide in the currency to the lowest in 14 months and soaring bond yields in Portugal and Spain, leaders of the 16 euro nations agreed to the financial backstop at a May 7 summit. They assigned finance chiefs to get it ready before Asian markets open later today European time. “We will defend the euro, whatever it takes,” European Commission President Jose Barroso told reporters in the early hours yesterday after the leaders met in Brussels. Europe’s failure to contain Greece’s fiscal crisis triggered a 4.3 percent drop in the euro last week, the biggest weekly decline since October 2008. It prompted the U.S. and Asia to urge broader steps to prevent a global sovereign-debt crisis from pitching the world back into a recession. “Europe is getting its act together,” said Chris Rupkey , chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “Time will tell if this statement is enough to satisfy the European bond market vigilantes.” European officials declined to disclose the size of the stabilization fund, to be made up of money borrowed by the EU’s central authorities with guarantees by national governments. Finance ministers will meet at about 3 p.m. in Brussels. A press briefing is scheduled for 6 p.m. ‘That’s Significant’ “When the markets re-open Monday, we will have in place a mechanism to defend the euro,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy said. “If you don’t think that’s significant, you haven’t been to many EU summits.” Sarkozy cancelled a planned trip to Moscow today to deal with the crisis. Britain, the EU’s third-largest economy, won’t contribute to the fund aimed at euro countries that essentially duplicates the work of the International Monetary Fund, a U.K. official said yesterday. Barroso said he wouldn’t push the independent European Central Bank to, for example, buy government bonds. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet accelerated the market selloff on May 6 by rejecting that measure. With the euro facing its stiffest test since its debut in 1999, the summit — called to discuss efforts to coordinate economic policies — turned into a crisis-management session that dragged past midnight. Euro’s Drop The euro slid to $1.2715 from $1.3293 during the week, and is down 15 percent since late November. European stocks sank the most in 18 months, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index tumbling 8.8 percent to 237.18. The extra yield that investors demand to hold Greek, Portuguese and Spanish debt instead of benchmark German bonds rose to euro-era highs. The premium on 10-year government bonds jumped as high as 973 basis points for Greece, 354 basis points for Portugal and 173 basis points for Spain. Europe came under pressure on a hastily arranged conference call of Group of Seven finance chiefs before the summit. All agreed on “the need for a clear, timely and strong response,” Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty , who chaired the call, told reporters in Ottawa. “We hope to see a strong, early policy response in Europe.” The spreading contagion also drew the attention of President Barack Obama , who said in Washington that U.S. regulators will examine the “unusual market activity” that on May 6 briefly drove the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by almost 1,000 points, erasing more than $1 trillion in wealth before the market bounced back. ‘Speedy Resolution’ “There are impacts on financial markets, including share markets, from the events in Europe and in Greece more specifically,” Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan told reporters in Canberra. “We are urging as speedy a resolution as is possible in the circumstances.” In Brussels, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stepped up German calls for a closer monitoring of government finances and more rigorous enforcement of the deficit-limitation rules, originally drafted by Germany in the 1990s. Europe will send “a very clear signal against those who want to speculate against the euro,” Merkel said. With the euro region’s overall deficit forecast at 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2010 and 6.1 percent in 2011, the vow to bring budget shortfalls back below the euro’s 3 percent limit echoes promises that have been regularly broken ever since governments in 1999 set a three-year deadline for achieving balanced budgets. Rating Firms Plans for a European credit-rating authority are already under consideration at the EU Commission, the bloc’s Brussels- based executive agency. It also is investigating whether ratings companies such as Standard & Poor’s wield too much power over investors’ perceptions of governments. Asked whether steps to stem speculation against government bonds would include restrictions on short sales or credit default swaps, Barroso said “some of the points you have mentioned will be contemplated.” The political leadership of the $12 trillion economy also signed off on a 110 billion-euro ($140 billion) aid package for Greece negotiated by finance ministers last week. So far nine governments have cleared the way for funds to be sent to Athens. Germany, the biggest contributor with as much as 22.4 billion euros over three years, fell in line with endorsements in the lower and upper houses of parliament on May 7. A group of German academics filed a lawsuit to try to halt the payout. Germany’s highest court yesterday rejected the challenge. A day after whisking a three-year, 30 billion-euro program of deficit cuts through parliament, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou ruled out further belt-tightening steps, saying the point of the summit was to “reaffirm our confidence in our economies and our common currency and this I believe is a very important message for the global economic recovery.” To contact the reporters on this story: James G. Neuger in Brussels at jneuger@bloomberg.net ; Gregory Viscusi in Brussels at gviscusi@bloomberg.net

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Ann Pettifor: The Real Deal in London

May 8, 2010

Britain’s political elites are doing deals this weekend, trying to form a government. Gingerly making their way across the shifting tectonic plates of public opinion; wary of being tripped up again by voters. For, let’s face it, the British electorate are no fools. As the governor of the Bank of England apparently warned last week, they are mad as hell. Austerity measures will not be tolerated, and will keep any governing party out of power for a generation . So there is a lot to lose. Voters listened carefully last autumn as David Cameron, the leader of the Conservative Party and his Finance Minister, George Osborne turned a blind eye to the reckless behaviour of the City of London. They ignored the extent to which taxpayers had bailed out private bankers, and taken the full burden of their losses on to the public sector balance sheet. Instead Osborne implied that responsibility for economic failure lay with millions of public sector workers, and the essential services they provide. In a politically disastrous move, Osborne threatened to punish the innocents with a ‘ new Age of Austerity ‘ , while promising to give an inheritance tax break to the 3,000 richest families in the country. He vowed “to freeze the pay of millions of public sector workers, cut benefits enjoyed by the middle classes and cap civil service pensions at £50,000 a year.” As a result, and despite the fact that Conservatives were at that point 17 points ahead of Labour and headed for a landslide – their vote slumped. Canny British voters refused to behave like turkeys voting for Christmas, and steadily withdrew support. There then began a concerted effort to silence Osborne (it seems he was locked up in a cupboard for the duration of the election campaign). Nevertheless, the damage was done, and the Tories failed to muster a majority of seats in the House of Commons last Thursday . Labour, under the leadership of Gordon Brown and to the surprise of many, managed to staunch the political wounds inflicted earlier on his party by his predecessor, Tony Blair. 13.5 million had voted for Labour in 1997 – in good faith. By 2005 and during ‘the good times’ when Britain was growing at 3% per annum – Labour’s vote had plummeted to 9.6 million – which is why Blair had to go. He had lost the Labour Party 3.9 million voters. Then, just as Gordon Brown took over the premiership, ‘ the world economy fell off a cliff ‘. Economic failure, unemployment and the failure to rein in bankers cost Brown’s government about 900,000 votes last week – fully 3 million votes less than were lost under Tony Blair. In other words, Labour’s lost voters were lost long before 6th May, 2010. Sceptical of the Conservatives and fed up with Labour, voters turned their attention to the ‘new boy’ on the block – Nick Clegg, leader of the Liberal Democrats. Excited by the media spotlight, the inexperienced Clegg blundered, fell victim to hubris, and asked incredulously how Mr Brown could “squat” in No 10 even if Labour came third in the popular vote. In the event it was Mr Clegg’s Liberal Democrats that trailed in third place. As quickly as they had risen, his party’s hopes were dashed – thwarted by shrewd voters. Nevertheless, Cameron and Clegg have grabbed the post-election spotlight, and are doing deals behind closed doors to forge a coalition, and force out Brown. Many expect the negotiations to fail, for want of common ground – on for example, the cancellation of the Trident nuclear submarine, and electoral reform. So power-sharing is doomed to fail, if not this week, then by this autumn. In the meantime, the real deal-makers are to be found elsewhere. Across the Irish Sea . In Belfast, Northern Ireland. The fact is that none of the political parties can afford another election campaign for the next year or so, and the Lib Dems and Tories are too far apart for a sustainable power-sharing deal. Cameron knows this. So expect the Conservatives to put in calls to the 8 members of the Democratic Unionist Party , in the hope that their support will enable David Cameron to govern as a minority government. This way they would keep both Labour and the Liberal Democrats at bay. That is, if they are not dislodged by the tectonic plates of ‘austerity’ – that could keep Conservatives out of power for the next generation.

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EU Finance Chiefs Race to Ready Emergency Fund Before Asian Markets Open

May 8, 2010

By James G. Neuger and Gregory Viscusi May 9 (Bloomberg) — European Union finance ministers meet today to hammer out the details of an emergency fund to prevent a sovereign debt crisis from shattering confidence in the 11- year-old euro. Jolted into action by last week’s slide in the currency to the lowest in 14 months and soaring bond yields in Portugal and Spain, leaders of the 16 euro nations agreed to the financial backstop at a May 7 summit. They assigned finance chiefs to get it ready before Asian markets open later today European time. “We will defend the euro, whatever it takes,” European Commission President Jose Barroso told reporters in the early hours yesterday after the leaders met in Brussels. Europe’s failure to contain Greece’s fiscal crisis triggered a 4.3 percent drop in the euro last week, the biggest weekly decline since October 2008. It prompted the U.S. and Asia to urge broader steps to prevent a global sovereign-debt crisis from pitching the world back into a recession. “Europe is getting its act together,” said Chris Rupkey , chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “Time will tell if this statement is enough to satisfy the European bond market vigilantes.” European officials declined to disclose the size of the stabilization fund, to be made up of money borrowed by the EU’s central authorities with guarantees by national governments. Finance ministers will meet at about 3 p.m. in Brussels. A press briefing is scheduled for 6 p.m. ‘That’s Significant’ “When the markets re-open Monday, we will have in place a mechanism to defend the euro,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy said. “If you don’t think that’s significant, you haven’t been to many EU summits.” Sarkozy cancelled a planned trip to Moscow today to deal with the crisis. Barroso said he wouldn’t push the independent European Central Bank to, for example, buy government bonds. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet accelerated the market selloff on May 6 by rejecting that measure. With the euro facing its stiffest test since its debut in 1999, the summit — called to discuss efforts to coordinate economic policies — turned into a crisis-management session that dragged past midnight. The euro slid to $1.2715 from $1.3293 during the week, and is down 15 percent since late November. European stocks sank the most in 18 months, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index tumbling 8.8 percent to 237.18. Surging Spreads The extra yield that investors demand to hold Greek, Portuguese and Spanish debt instead of benchmark German bonds rose to euro-era highs. The premium on 10-year government bonds jumped as high as 973 basis points for Greece, 354 basis points for Portugal and 173 basis points for Spain. Europe came under pressure on a hastily arranged conference call of Group of Seven finance chiefs before the summit. All agreed on “the need for a clear, timely and strong response,” Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty , who chaired the call, told reporters in Ottawa. “We hope to see a strong, early policy response in Europe.” The spreading contagion also drew the attention of President Barack Obama , who said in Washington that U.S. regulators will examine the “unusual market activity” that on May 6 briefly drove the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by almost 1,000 points, erasing more than $1 trillion in wealth before the market bounced back. “There are impacts on financial markets, including share markets, from the events in Europe and in Greece more specifically,” Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan told reporters in Canberra. “We are urging as speedy a resolution as is possible in the circumstances.” Merkel’s Call In Brussels, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stepped up German calls for a closer monitoring of government finances and more rigorous enforcement of the deficit-limitation rules, originally drafted by Germany in the 1990s. Europe will send “a very clear signal against those who want to speculate against the euro,” Merkel said. With the euro region’s overall deficit forecast at 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2010 and 6.1 percent in 2011, the vow to bring budget shortfalls back below the euro’s 3 percent limit echoes promises that have been regularly broken ever since governments in 1999 set a three-year deadline for achieving balanced budgets. Plans for a European credit-rating authority are already under consideration at the EU Commission, the bloc’s Brussels- based executive agency. It also is investigating whether ratings companies such as Standard & Poor’s wield too much power over investors’ perceptions of governments. Restrictions Considered Asked whether steps to stem speculation against government bonds would include restrictions on short sales or credit default swaps, Barroso said “some of the points you have mentioned will be contemplated.” The political leadership of the $12 trillion economy also signed off on a 110 billion-euro ($140 billion) aid package for Greece negotiated by finance ministers last week. So far nine governments have cleared the way for funds to be sent to Athens. Germany, the biggest contributor with as much as 22.4 billion euros over three years, fell in line with endorsements in the lower and upper houses of parliament on May 7. A group of German academics filed a lawsuit to try to halt the payout. Germany’s highest court yesterday rejected the challenge. A day after whisking a three-year, 30 billion-euro program of deficit cuts through parliament, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou ruled out further belt-tightening steps for the time being, saying the point of the summit was to “reaffirm our confidence in our economies and our common currency and this I believe is a very important message for the global economic recovery.” To contact the reporters on this story: James G. Neuger in Brussels at jneuger@bloomberg.net ; Gregory Viscusi in Brussels at gviscusi@bloomberg.net

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Europe’s Leaders Agree on Emergency Fund to Defend Euro as Crisis Spreads

May 8, 2010

By James G. Neuger and Gregory Viscusi May 8 (Bloomberg) — European leaders agreed to set up an emergency fund to halt the spread of Greece’s fiscal woes, seeking to prevent a sovereign debt crisis from shattering confidence in the 11-year-old euro. Jolted into action by the sliding currency and soaring bond yields in Portugal and Spain, leaders of the 16 euro countries said the workings of the financial backstop will be hammered out before the markets open on May 10. “We will defend the euro, whatever it takes,” European Commission President Jose Barroso told reporters early today after the leaders met in Brussels. Europe’s failure to contain Greece’s fiscal crisis triggered a 4.3 percent drop in the euro this week and led the U.S. and Asia to rally around in a bid to prevent a global sovereign-debt crisis from pitching the world back into a recession. European officials declined to disclose the size of the stabilization fund, to be made up of money borrowed by the European Union’s central authorities with guarantees by national governments. Finance ministers will meet at 4 p.m. tomorrow in Brussels to flesh out the details. “When the markets re-open Monday, we will have in place a mechanism to defend the euro,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy said. “If you don’t think that’s significant, you haven’t been to many EU summits.” Independent ECB Barroso said he wouldn’t push the independent European Central Bank to, for example, buy government bonds. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet accelerated the market selloff on May 6 by rejecting that measure. With the euro facing its stiffest test since its debut in 1999, the summit — called to discuss longer-term efforts to coordinate economic policies — turned into a crisis-management session that dragged past midnight. The euro slid to $1.2715 from $1.3293 during the week, and is down 15 percent since late November. European stocks sank the most in 18 months, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index tumbling 8.8 percent to 237.18. The extra yield that investors demand to hold Greek, Portuguese and Spanish debt instead of safer German bonds rose to euro-era highs yesterday. The premium on 10-year government bonds jumped as high as 973 basis points for Greece, 354 basis points for Portugal and 173 basis points for Spain. Spreading Contagion Europe came under pressure on a hastily arranged conference call of Group of Seven finance chiefs yesterday. All agreed on “the need for a clear, timely and strong response,” Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty , who chaired the call, told reporters in Ottawa. “We hope to see a strong, early policy response in Europe.” The spreading contagion also drew the attention of President Barack Obama , who said in Washington that U.S. regulators will examine the “unusual market activity” that on May 6 briefly drove the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by almost 1,000 points, erasing more than $1 trillion in wealth before the market bounced back. “There are impacts on financial markets, including share markets, from the events in Europe and in Greece more specifically,” said Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan, speaking to reporters in Canberra today. “We are urging as speedy a resolution as is possible in the circumstances.” In Brussels, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stepped up German calls for a closer monitoring of government finances and more rigorous enforcement of the deficit-limitation rules, originally drafted by Germany in the 1990s. Europe will send “a very clear signal against those who want to speculate against the euro,” Merkel said. Credit-Rating Authority With the euro region’s overall deficit forecast at 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2010 and 6.1 percent in 2011, the vow to bring budget shortfalls back below the euro’s 3 percent limit echoes promises that have been regularly broken ever since governments in 1999 set a three-year deadline for achieving balanced budgets. Plans for a European credit-rating authority are already under consideration at the EU Commission, the bloc’s Brussels- based executive agency. It also is investigating whether ratings companies such as Standard & Poor’s wield too much power over investors’ perceptions of governments. Asked whether steps to stem speculation against government bonds would include restrictions on short sales or credit default swaps, Barroso said “some of the points you have mentioned will be contemplated.” The political leadership of the $12 trillion economy also signed off on a 110 billion-euro ($140 billion) aid package for Greece negotiated by finance ministers last week. So far nine governments have cleared the way for funds to be sent to Athens. Biggest Contributor Germany, the biggest contributor with as much as 22.4 billion euros over three years, fell in line yesterday with endorsements in the lower and upper houses of parliament. A group of German academics filed a lawsuit to try to halt the payout. A day after whisking a three-year, 30 billion-euro program of deficit cuts through parliament, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou ruled out further belt-tightening steps for the time being, saying the point of the summit was to “reaffirm our confidence in our economies and our common currency and this I believe is a very important message for the global economic recovery.” Europe’s unprecedented lending pledge has “proven insufficient to stop market contagion to the rest of the euro- zone periphery,” Michael Saunders and other economists at Citigroup Inc. said in an e-mailed note before the summit. “Different kinds of solutions are necessary to fix the underlying problems of the rest of the euro periphery other than Greek-style packages, and these are unlikely to come in the very short term.” To contact the reporters on this story: James G. Neuger in Brussels at jneuger@bloomberg.net ; Gregory Viscusi in Brussels at gviscusi@bloomberg.net .

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Europe’s Leaders Agree on Emergency Fund to Defend Euro as Crisis Spreads

May 8, 2010

By James G. Neuger and Gregory Viscusi May 8 (Bloomberg) — European leaders agreed to set up an emergency fund to halt the spread of Greece’s fiscal woes, seeking to prevent a sovereign debt crisis from shattering confidence in the 11-year-old euro. Jolted into action by the sliding currency and soaring bond yields in Portugal and Spain, leaders of the 16 euro countries said the workings of the financial backstop will be hammered out before the markets open on May 10. “We will defend the euro, whatever it takes,” European Commission President Jose Barroso told reporters early today after the leaders met in Brussels. Europe’s failure to contain Greece’s fiscal crisis triggered a 4.3 percent drop in the euro this week and led the U.S. and Asia to rally around in a bid to prevent a global sovereign-debt crisis from pitching the world back into a recession. European officials declined to disclose the size of the stabilization fund, to be made up of money borrowed by the European Union’s central authorities with guarantees by national governments. Finance ministers will meet at 4 p.m. tomorrow in Brussels to flesh out the details. “When the markets re-open Monday, we will have in place a mechanism to defend the euro,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy said. “If you don’t think that’s significant, you haven’t been to many EU summits.” Independent ECB Barroso said he wouldn’t push the independent European Central Bank to, for example, buy government bonds. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet accelerated the market selloff on May 6 by rejecting that measure. With the euro facing its stiffest test since its debut in 1999, the summit — called to discuss longer-term efforts to coordinate economic policies — turned into a crisis-management session that dragged past midnight. The euro slid to $1.2715 from $1.3293 during the week, and is down 15 percent since late November. European stocks sank the most in 18 months, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index tumbling 8.8 percent to 237.18. The extra yield that investors demand to hold Greek, Portuguese and Spanish debt instead of safer German bonds rose to euro-era highs yesterday. The premium on 10-year government bonds jumped as high as 973 basis points for Greece, 354 basis points for Portugal and 173 basis points for Spain. Spreading Contagion Europe came under pressure on a hastily arranged conference call of Group of Seven finance chiefs yesterday. All agreed on “the need for a clear, timely and strong response,” Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty , who chaired the call, told reporters in Ottawa. “We hope to see a strong, early policy response in Europe.” The spreading contagion also drew the attention of President Barack Obama , who said in Washington that U.S. regulators will examine the “unusual market activity” that on May 6 briefly drove the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by almost 1,000 points, erasing more than $1 trillion in wealth before the market bounced back. “There are impacts on financial markets, including share markets, from the events in Europe and in Greece more specifically,” said Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan, speaking to reporters in Canberra today. “We are urging as speedy a resolution as is possible in the circumstances.” In Brussels, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stepped up German calls for a closer monitoring of government finances and more rigorous enforcement of the deficit-limitation rules, originally drafted by Germany in the 1990s. Europe will send “a very clear signal against those who want to speculate against the euro,” Merkel said. Credit-Rating Authority With the euro region’s overall deficit forecast at 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2010 and 6.1 percent in 2011, the vow to bring budget shortfalls back below the euro’s 3 percent limit echoes promises that have been regularly broken ever since governments in 1999 set a three-year deadline for achieving balanced budgets. Plans for a European credit-rating authority are already under consideration at the EU Commission, the bloc’s Brussels- based executive agency. It also is investigating whether ratings companies such as Standard & Poor’s wield too much power over investors’ perceptions of governments. Asked whether steps to stem speculation against government bonds would include restrictions on short sales or credit default swaps, Barroso said “some of the points you have mentioned will be contemplated.” The political leadership of the $12 trillion economy also signed off on a 110 billion-euro ($140 billion) aid package for Greece negotiated by finance ministers last week. So far nine governments have cleared the way for funds to be sent to Athens. Biggest Contributor Germany, the biggest contributor with as much as 22.4 billion euros over three years, fell in line yesterday with endorsements in the lower and upper houses of parliament. A group of German academics filed a lawsuit to try to halt the payout. A day after whisking a three-year, 30 billion-euro program of deficit cuts through parliament, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou ruled out further belt-tightening steps for the time being, saying the point of the summit was to “reaffirm our confidence in our economies and our common currency and this I believe is a very important message for the global economic recovery.” Europe’s unprecedented lending pledge has “proven insufficient to stop market contagion to the rest of the euro- zone periphery,” Michael Saunders and other economists at Citigroup Inc. said in an e-mailed note before the summit. “Different kinds of solutions are necessary to fix the underlying problems of the rest of the euro periphery other than Greek-style packages, and these are unlikely to come in the very short term.” To contact the reporters on this story: James G. Neuger in Brussels at jneuger@bloomberg.net ; Gregory Viscusi in Brussels at gviscusi@bloomberg.net .

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Portugal Rating May Be Cut by Moody’s as Budget Woes Hurt Growth Prospects

May 5, 2010

By Emma Ross-Thomas and Jennifer Ryan May 5 (Bloomberg) — Portugal may have its credit rating cut by Moody’s Investors Service as the country struggles to reduce its budget deficit and revive economic growth a sign that contagion from the Greek crisis is spreading. Moody’s today placed its Aa2 rating on review for a possible downgrade, a process that will conclude within three months, the company said in a statement. The rating is currently the third-highest investment grade. Investors are shifting their attention to Portugal after surging bond yields forced Greece to seek a 110 billion-euro ($142 billion) bailout from the euro region and the International Monetary Fund. The extra yield that they demand to hold Portuguese bonds over German bunds last week rose to the highest since 1997 and Bundesbank President Axel Weber today warned that the euro region faces “grave contagion effects.” “Today’s rating action reflects the recent deterioration of Portugal’s public finances as well as the economy’s long-term growth challenges,” Moody’s said. The company “believes that increased risk discrimination in the financial markets may raise Portugal’s financing costs for some time to come.” Portugal’s risk premium rose 24 basis points to 276 today after climbing as high as 299 basis points on April 28. Portugal’s budget deficit was the fourth-largest in the euro region last year and Standard & Poor’s cut its rating on the nation last week. “Although its debt metrics may, on balance, turn out to be more consistent with a low Aa or a high A rating, the government’s debt is neither unsustainable nor unbearable,” Moody’s said. Portugal is rated A- by S&P and AA- by Fitch Ratings. To contact the reporter on this story: Emma Ross-Thomas in Madrid at erossthomas@bloomberg.net

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China Raises Bank Reserve Ratio Third Time This Year to Restrain Economy

May 2, 2010

By Bloomberg News May 2 (Bloomberg) — China ordered banks to set aside more deposits as reserves for the third time this year, seeking to counter the risk of property bubbles and the threat inflation will surge after a record expansion in credit. The reserve requirement will increase 50 basis points effective May 10, the People’s Bank of China said on its Web site today. The current level is 16.5 percent for the biggest banks and 14.5 percent for smaller ones. Today’s move adds to a government crackdown on property speculation that intensified after prices jumped by a record in March and economic growth surged in the first quarter. The central bank left benchmark interest rates unchanged as Europe’s debt crisis highlights policy makers’ concern that the global economic recovery may still be on fragile foundations. “Economic momentum is building and the authorities want to stay ahead of the curve before potential overheating,” David Cohen , an economist with Action Economics in Singapore, said. “When inflation reaches 3 percent that’ll catch their attention — and potentially could trigger a rate hike.” The inflation rate for March was 2.4 percent. China’s markets are closed tomorrow for a holiday. The world’s fastest-growing major economy expanded 11.9 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the most since the second quarter of 2007. Measures to cool the real-estate market have included a ban on loans for third-home purchases and raising mortgage rates and down-payment requirements for second- home purchases. Speculative Inflows Today’s move removes 300 billion yuan ($44 billion) from the financial system and may push back an interest-rate increase until “early June,” according to Deutsche Bank AG. Besides leaving interest rates at crisis levels, the central bank has yet to scrap the yuan’s peg to the dollar, in place since July 2008 to aid exporters. Inflows of speculative capital from investors betting on yuan gains may have driven today’s move, said Lu Zhengwei , a Shanghai-based economist at Industrial Bank Co. Glenn Maguire , chief Asia-Pacific economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong, took the same view, saying that “China has been inundated with hot money on the back of yuan revaluation speculation.” A report yesterday, showing manufacturing accelerated in April and material costs jumped, underscored the risk of overheating in the fastest-growing major economy. Winding Back Stimulus Those data, and possibly strong loan growth in April, may have triggered today’s move, said Liu Li-Gang , a Hong Kong-based economist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. While the government says it’s maintaining a “moderately loose” monetary policy, reserve ratio increases and the targeting of a 22 percent reduction in new loans this year are efforts to wind back stimulus as exports and company profits rebound. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. estimates first-half profit may increase as much as 10-fold. PBOC Deputy Governor Zhu Min said March 25 that rate rises were a “heavy-duty weapon” and alternative measures were working well. Europe’s debt crisis makes an interest-rate increase less and less likely this quarter and could delay gains in the yuan, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said last week. Europe is the largest market for China, the world’s biggest exporting nation. China faces a complex economic environment this year amid a weak global recovery and domestic challenges including managing inflation expectations and risks from local-government borrowing and property loans, banking regulator Liu Mingkang said April 30. Inflation Threat In February, China’s consumer prices rose 2.7 percent, the most in 16 months, topping the one-year deposit rate of 2.25 percent. The benchmark one-year lending rate is 5.31 percent. Investor Marc Faber said April 21 that China’s “excessive” credit expansion and surging real estate prices are “danger signals” and “there are some symptoms of a bubble building.” In March, property prices rose 11.7 percent across 70 cities from a year earlier, the most since data began in 2005. China appears heading for an “asset boom, bubble and bust” that may take three years to play out and probably won’t be thwarted by tighter economic policy, Citigroup economists said in a March report. It may take as long as two years for the bubble to form and at least three years for it to burst, London- based Willem Buiter , a former Bank of England policy maker, and Shen Minggao in Hong Kong estimated. Slowing Credit Growth Premier Wen Jiabao ’s government is aiming to slow credit growth to 7.5 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) this year from a record 9.59 trillion yuan in 2009. In the first three months of 2010, banks lent 35 percent of the full-year target. Speculation that China is poised to let the yuan gain intensified last month after U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner delayed a report that could name the nation a currency manipulator and had an unscheduled meeting in Beijing with Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan . China is keeping the yuan at about 6.83 per dollar. American lawmakers have stepped up calls for an end to what they label an unfair subsidy for Chinese exporters. — Kevin Hamlin , Li Yanping , Sophie Leung , Feiwen Rong . Editors: Chris Anstey , Paul Panckhurst . To contact the Bloomberg News staff on this story: Kevin Hamlin in Beijing on khamlin@bloomberg.net

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E*Trade Founder Porter Sees More Mergers, Rivals for Securities Exchanges

April 30, 2010

By Nina Mehta April 30 (Bloomberg) — E*Trade Financial Corp. founder William A. Porter said he expects more mergers among exchanges in coming years, and that he wouldn’t have a problem if hedge funds were “outlawed.” The 82-year-old entrepreneur who built E*Trade into a $3.33 billion discount broker with 2.6 million brokerage accounts is receiving the Sullivan Award today in Phoenix for his contributions to the options industry as a co-founder of the New York-based International Securities Exchange. Porter said new exchanges will keep cropping up, and that’s good for investors. “When more people are competing, that reduces the cost of trading,” Porter said in an interview. “Everyone benefits except market makers who have to trade a lot more to make up for the fact that the spreads shrink.” Market makers buy and sell continuously, usually making money on the difference between bid and offer prices. CBOE Holdings Inc., owner of the Chicago Board Options Exchange, plans to see shares in an initial public offering in June that analysts such as Equity Research Desk LLC’s Diego Perfumo say may be a prelude to a merger. Nymex Holdings Inc., CBOT Holdings Inc. and International Securities Exchange Holdings Inc. were bought within three years of their IPOs, bringing industry takeovers to $61 billion since 2007 after government regulations spurred new markets and squeezed profits, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Four or Five Competition has driven down commissions and also changed the businesses of exchanges by forcing them to gain volume through mergers. This trend will continue even as new rivals crop up, Porter said. “In the long haul there will be four or five of these exchange groups,” Porter said. “After we became a live exchange” at ISE, “it was clear to me that we had to join up with someone.” Eurex, owned by Deutsche Boerse AG and SIX Swiss Exchange AG, bought ISE in 2007. Hedge funds and computer traders provide a “great deal of liquidity that wouldn’t otherwise exist,” benefiting individuals, Porter said. “At same time, the money that hedge funds make generally comes from the little guy or other hedge funds, and I’d just as soon see the whole bunch of them outlawed.” A hedge fund came to the rescue when the broker Porter founded struggled following the collapse of the subprime- mortgage market. Citadel’s Rescue E*Trade, based in New York, hasn’t posted a quarterly profit since 2007, and Kenneth Griffin ’s hedge-fund operator Citadel Investment Group LLC injected $2.5 billion of cash into the company in November 2007 to prevent a collapse. E*Trade named Steven Freiberg as chief executive officer in March 2010, after initially failing to find a permanent replacement when Donald Layton retired in December and disclosing that its preferred candidate was no longer available. Previous winners of the Sullivan Award, which recognizes contributions to the options industry, include CBOE Chief Executive Officer William Brodsky , ISE Co-Founder David Krell , Interactive Brokers Group CEO Thomas Peterffy and Jeffrey Yass, founder of market maker Susquehanna International Group LLP. In the mid-1990s, Porter began to focus on why E*Trade could charge $9.95 per trade for stocks — “and actually make a lot of profit there,” he said — and had to charge $33 for options trades. Options Monopoly The reason was the “cozy monopolistic situation of the exchanges,” which discouraged exchanges from trading one another’s products, keeping investors’ costs high, Porter said. An option on International Business Machines Corp. at the time could change hands only in the trading pit on the Chicago Board Options Exchange. Now IBM options are traded on eight exchanges. Porter decided to create an electronic market to compete with the four floor-based U.S. exchanges because Europe had begun creating venues that used computers to match orders. He arranged for Stockholm-based OM AB, now part of Nasdaq OMX Group Inc., to create the trading platform for his company’s exclusive use in the U.S. Porter co-founded ISE with former NYSE employees David Krell and Gary Katz , who had started a consulting company after the Big Board sold its options business to CBOE in 1997, and Marty Averbuch , an E*Trade colleague. In 2004, ISE briefly became the largest options exchange, surpassing CBOE. In December and March ISE was the third-largest market, behind Nasdaq OMX PHLX, operated by Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. in New York. ISE now faces competition from venues that have transformed themselves to battle for share in a largely electronic marketplace. In March, ISE traded 19.4 percent of options volume, its lowest level since June 2002. Color TV Porter is also the inventor of an infrared horizon sensor that enables satellites to know which way is “down,” as he put it. He holds 14 patents for inventions in military and commercial technology. These include the first color low-light- level broadcast television camera, the first backpack broadcast color TV camera, which he said weighed 120 pounds, and the first exhaust sensors for automotive pollution control. Porter got into finance in the mid-1970s after Commercial Electronics Inc., a firm he founded in Palo Alto, California, shut down. Porter sold the company in 1975 to New York-based Warner Communications Inc. for $15,000, which he began investing. His interest money management pushed him to find a source of online stock quotes. That led in 1978 to his first business plan for Trade*Plus, the predecessor to E*Trade. “I put the asterisk there because Trade Plus is kind of blah, so to give it a little pizzazz,” Porter said. He said he trades about three times a week, either on E*Trade or Fidelity Investments, and his attention to electronics hasn’t waned. “I buy every new gadget that comes out — I’m a gadgeteer,” he said. “But in the same breath I have to say I don’t know how to run a computer anymore. The world has passed me by.” To contact the reporter on this story: Nina Mehta in New York at nmehta24@bloomberg.net .

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Senators Try to Salvage Climate-Change Bill Amid Feud Over Immigration Law

April 26, 2010

By Kim Chipman April 26 (Bloomberg) — The fate of climate-change legislation is being weighed at the Capitol today by senators seeking to salvage a proposal aimed at fighting global warming and remaking the U.S. energy economy. The measure sponsored by Senators Lindsey Graham , John Kerry and Joseph Lieberman was to be made public today until Republican Graham pulled out to protest that the Obama administration and Senate Democratic leaders may act first to overhaul immigration laws. The three senators will meet today to discuss how to proceed, according to Lieberman spokesman Marshall Wittmann . “Any and all reports of the demise of energy legislation are greatly exaggerated,” Wittmann said in an e-mailed statement. “Not only is this bill very much alive but the senators are aggressively moving forward to remove any obstacles to getting it passed this year.” The dispute over the climate-change measure’s timing in Congress concerns how many politically divisive issues lawmakers are able or willing to tackle in coming months, as their attention turns increasingly to the November midterm elections. The overhaul of the U.S. health-care system dominated the first year of President Barack Obama ’s administration, and the Senate is now debating financial regulatory legislation. Graham of South Carolina has been working for more than six months with Kerry, a Massachusetts Democrat, and Lieberman, a Connecticut independent, on a compromise bill to cap greenhouse- gas pollution and develop new energy resources. ‘Cynical Ploy’ Senate Democratic leaders and Obama want to put immigration ahead of energy legislation as part of a “cynical ploy” to win votes for Democrats in the November elections, Graham said in an April 24 letter to groups including business leaders and environmentalists. “I deeply regret that election-year politics will impede, if not derail, our efforts to make our nation energy- independent,” Graham said. The senators plan to send their bill to the Environmental Protection Agency today for analysis, according to Wittmann. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has said an EPA study will be completed before the measure is brought before the Senate. “Since it will take EPA about five weeks they ought to get started,” said Joseph Romm , a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, a public-policy group in Washington that advises Democrats. Obama had told his Economic Advisory Board on April 17, “The financial regulatory reform will take several more weeks and then we’ll probably be transitioning next to look at on what can be done on the energy front.” Immigration Overhaul The president pressed anew last week for an overhaul of U.S. immigration policy, and Democratic congressional leaders said that legislation may advance this year if Reid can gain enough support. Calls to revamp federal immigration law grew as Arizona enacted a law last week requiring police to determine the immigration status of anyone an officer suspects is in the country without proper documentation. Inaction in Washington will lead to “misguided” efforts such as the Arizona measure, Obama said April 23. White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers said yesterday that both immigration and climate-change should be acted on, sidestepping the question of which issue Congress should take up next. “They are both important,” Summers said on the CBS program “Face the Nation.” “There is no either-or between energy and immigration reform.” Up to Reid Summers said it’s up to Reid, “for whatever reasons he has,” to set the Senate’s legislative calendar. Reid, a Nevada Democrat facing re-election in November, said immigration and energy legislation are “equally vital” to the nation’s economic and national security and have been “ignored too long.” “Energy could be next if it’s ready,” he said in an April 24 statement. “I have also said we will try to pass comprehensive immigration reform.” The last try at revamping the law to create a guest worker program and provide a path to citizenship for some of those living in the U.S. illegally was in 2007. That was blocked amid opposition from Republicans and some Democrats. Graham, along with Democratic Senator Charles Schumer of New York, has worked to come up with a framework for legislation that can win bipartisan support. Not the ‘Right Time’ Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said Congress shouldn’t try to overhaul immigration laws this year. “I just don’t think this is the right time,” McConnell of Kentucky said yesterday on “ Fox News Sunday .” Senator Saxby Chambliss , a Georgia Republican, said the Senate shouldn’t consider either climate change or immigration legislation. “I’m not sure how we can justify bringing either one of them up right now,” Chambliss said yesterday on CNN’s “State of the Union” program. Instead, the chamber should focus on spending bills, he said. Kerry, Graham and Lieberman had planned to unveil today a scaled-back version of “cap-and-trade” legislation passed by the House last year. The House measure would limit carbon emissions throughout the economy, establishing an emissions- trading market in pollution allowances. Critics such as billionaire investor Warren Buffett said that would amount to a burdensome energy tax on consumers. Utility Carbon-Trading The senators’ compromise would initially provide carbon trading solely for utilities, with manufacturers added later. Oil companies would get free allowances that would expire by a certain date. The measure also would provide for expanded offshore oil and gas drilling and incentives for nuclear power and “clean-coal” technology. Their proposed legislation already had won support from utilities such as Exelon Corp. , and people close to the matter said last week that oil companies including ConocoPhillips were prepared to sign on. The senators’ compromise, which would start taking effect in 2013, would require a 17 percent reduction in U.S. carbon emissions by 2020 and an 80 percent cut by 2050, according to people familiar with the legislation. To contact the reporter on this story: Kim Chipman in Washington at kchipman@bloomberg.net

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Senators Seek to Salvage Climate-Change Measure in Feud Over Immigration

April 26, 2010

By Kim Chipman April 26 (Bloomberg) — The fate of climate-change legislation is being weighed at the Capitol today by senators seeking to salvage a proposal aimed at fighting global warming and remaking the U.S. energy economy. The measure sponsored by Senators Lindsey Graham , John Kerry and Joseph Lieberman was to be made public today until Republican Graham pulled out to protest that the Obama administration and Senate Democratic leaders may act first to overhaul immigration laws. The three senators will meet today to discuss how to proceed, according to Lieberman spokesman Marshall Wittmann . “Any and all reports of the demise of energy legislation are greatly exaggerated,” Wittmann said in an e-mailed statement. “Not only is this bill very much alive but the senators are aggressively moving forward to remove any obstacles to getting it passed this year.” The dispute over the climate-change measure’s timing in Congress concerns how many politically divisive issues lawmakers are able or willing to tackle in coming months, as their attention turns increasingly to the November midterm elections. The overhaul of the U.S. health-care system dominated the first year of President Barack Obama ’s administration, and the Senate is now debating financial regulatory legislation. Graham of South Carolina has been working for more than six months with Kerry, a Massachusetts Democrat, and Lieberman, a Connecticut independent, on a compromise bill to cap greenhouse- gas pollution and develop new energy resources. ‘Cynical Ploy’ Senate Democratic leaders and Obama want to put immigration ahead of energy legislation as part of a “cynical ploy” to win votes for Democrats in the November elections, Graham said in an April 24 letter to groups including business leaders and environmentalists. “I deeply regret that election-year politics will impede, if not derail, our efforts to make our nation energy- independent,” Graham said. The senators plan to send their bill to the Environmental Protection Agency today for analysis, according to Wittmann. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has said an EPA study will be completed before the measure is brought before the Senate. “Since it will take EPA about five weeks they ought to get started,” said Joseph Romm , a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, a public-policy group in Washington that advises Democrats. Obama had told his Economic Advisory Board on April 17, “The financial regulatory reform will take several more weeks and then we’ll probably be transitioning next to look at on what can be done on the energy front.” Immigration Overhaul The president pressed anew last week for an overhaul of U.S. immigration policy, and Democratic congressional leaders said that legislation may advance this year if Reid can gain enough support. Calls to revamp federal immigration law grew as Arizona enacted a law last week requiring police to determine the immigration status of anyone an officer suspects is in the country without proper documentation. Inaction in Washington will lead to “misguided” efforts such as the Arizona measure, Obama said April 23. White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers said yesterday that both immigration and climate-change should be acted on, sidestepping the question of which issue Congress should take up next. “They are both important,” Summers said on the CBS program “Face the Nation.” “There is no either-or between energy and immigration reform.” Up to Reid Summers said it’s up to Reid, “for whatever reasons he has,” to set the Senate’s legislative calendar. Reid, a Nevada Democrat facing re-election in November, said immigration and energy legislation are “equally vital” to the nation’s economic and national security and have been “ignored too long.” “Energy could be next if it’s ready,” he said in an April 24 statement. “I have also said we will try to pass comprehensive immigration reform.” The last try at revamping the law to create a guest worker program and provide a path to citizenship for some of those living in the U.S. illegally was in 2007. That was blocked amid opposition from Republicans and some Democrats. Graham, along with Democratic Senator Charles Schumer of New York, has worked to come up with a framework for legislation that can win bipartisan support. Not the ‘Right Time’ Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said Congress shouldn’t try to overhaul immigration laws this year. “I just don’t think this is the right time,” McConnell of Kentucky said yesterday on “ Fox News Sunday .” Senator Saxby Chambliss , a Georgia Republican, said the Senate shouldn’t consider either climate change or immigration legislation. “I’m not sure how we can justify bringing either one of them up right now,” Chambliss said yesterday on CNN’s “State of the Union” program. Instead, the chamber should focus on spending bills, he said. Kerry, Graham and Lieberman had planned to unveil today a scaled-back version of “cap-and-trade” legislation passed by the House last year. The House measure would limit carbon emissions throughout the economy, establishing an emissions- trading market in pollution allowances. Critics such as billionaire investor Warren Buffett said that would amount to a burdensome energy tax on consumers. Utility Carbon-Trading The senators’ compromise would initially provide carbon trading solely for utilities, with manufacturers added later. Oil companies would get free allowances that would expire by a certain date. The measure also would provide for expanded offshore oil and gas drilling and incentives for nuclear power and “clean-coal” technology. Their proposed legislation already had won support from utilities such as Exelon Corp. , and people close to the matter said last week that oil companies including ConocoPhillips were prepared to sign on. The senators’ compromise, which would start taking effect in 2013, would require a 17 percent reduction in U.S. carbon emissions by 2020 and an 80 percent cut by 2050, according to people familiar with the legislation. To contact the reporter on this story: Kim Chipman in Washington at kchipman@bloomberg.net

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Paul Nawrocki, Sandwich-Board Job Hunter, Finds Work After 2 Years

April 25, 2010

NEW YORK — When laid-off toy company executive Paul Nawrocki hit the streets of Manhattan wearing a sandwich board and handing out his resume, he became the face of the recession. At the end of 2008, with the giants of Wall Street collapsing and bank accounts dwindling, this lone, mustachioed job hunter with the sign proclaiming he was “almost homeless” seemed like a mirror of a slumping nation’s fears and troubles. Nawrocki appeared on CNN and was shadowed by South American photojournalists. In a handful of weeks, he gave more than 100 interviews in TV studios and on the street. He began to think of his photograph like a Post-it note – stuck next to seemingly every article about the economy. The world decided he was a weather vane for the nation’s economic troubles. And maybe he was: Even though the attention faded, his troubles did not. Having the eyes of the world on him didn’t land the then-59-year-old any viable job interviews. His wife was sick, and keeping his health care was a struggle. He began to decide between the doctors and the mortgage. Well, if Paul Nawrocki is a sign of the times, then times are looking up. Because last month, after collecting 99 weeks of unemployment, Nawrocki finally found a job. He’s not the only one. While unemployment remains high, the nation added 162,000 jobs last month – the first significant job growth since the downturn began. “It was good. It felt good,” the Beacon, N.Y., resident says of his first day back at an office – 25 months after he was asked to leave his old one. “It felt like all new again because it had been so long.” Nawrocki hopes he’s back on his feet after the long, dark stretch. But he knows he’s still on shaky footing. The financial damage of the last two years won’t just disappear. “We’re still not out of the woods,” he says now. He has two mortgages on his home 70 miles north of Manhattan. “One of our mortgages – I’m like six months behind. I don’t know how I’m going to be able to catch up.” Nawrocki and his wife declared bankruptcy last year. They got food stamps. They went to food banks. They took gifts from family. For months, he’s been waiting fearfully for his mortgage company to call – waiting for a foreclosure notice, for something. But so far, nothing has happened. In the end, his path back to work wasn’t through his television appearances, but through old-fashioned networking. He went to a toy-industry fair, and a friend introduced him to the man who would become his boss. Nawrocki believes the tales of his sandwich-board days helped him land an interview. His paycheck is nearly half the size; he had made almost $100,000 a year. And his title is a little less grand. But the job still seems a wondrous, unlikely rescue – as though a hand had descended from the sky at the last possible moment. “I had reached the limit, the last week,” he recounted. “And they called and had me start the next week. … Through this whole experience it’s been like that. We get right to the edge, and then …” he trails off. And then. Hope returns.

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