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Huffington Post…

The past 70 years have seen three massive, value-destroying market crashes. After each, regulators have attempted to punish wrongdoers and implement fixes to prevent future meltdowns. It hasn’t helped, because regulators have focused on symptoms instead of root causes. The only way we can avoid increasingly frequent stock market meltdowns — and all the pain, suffering and economic dislocation they cause — is to explore the theories that underpin American capitalism. One theory in particular deserves our close attention, due its pervasiveness and power — shareholder value theory. In 1976, finance professor Michael Jensen and Dean William Meckling of the Simon School of Business at the University of Rochester published a seemingly innocuous paper in the Journal of Financial Economics entitled “Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs and Ownership Structure.” It would go on to be the single most frequently cited article in business academia and forms the prevailing theory of the role of the firm and proper compensation in our society today. The article first defined the principal-agent problem and created agency theory . In the authors’ construct, shareholders are the principals of the firm — i.e., they own it and benefit from its prosperity. Executives are agents who are hired by the principals to work on their behalf. The principal-agent problem occurs because the agents have an inherent incentive to optimize activities and resources for themselves rather than for their principals. For example, an executive might declare her own time to be so valuable that she requires a private jet to ferry her around. While this might be convenient for the executive, and may even increase her productivity level, it may well hurt the owners of the company, reducing earnings by more than the increase in productivity. Such a choice puts an agent’s interests ahead of those of the principals and creates an agency cost. Jensen and Meckling argued that when executives squander firm resources to feather their own nests, the result is both bad for shareholders and wasteful for the economy. Instead, the theory goes, the singular goal of a company should be to maximize the return to shareholders. To achieve that goal, the company must give executives a compelling reason to place shareholder value maximization ahead of their own nest-feathering. While it is not possible to entirely eliminate the self-interest of executives, the authors posited that we could better align that self-interest with the interests of shareholders; we could eliminate agency costs by giving agents meaningful amounts of stock-based compensation, actually making them shareholders as well as executives. Executives would then be very interested in increasing shareholder value, because when it increased, so would their own compensation. Like all good theories, agency theory had limitations and unexpected side effects, a fact its disciples have chosen to ignore (though Jensen himself has acknowledged them). In particular, the theory had the unfortunate effect of tightly tying together two markets: the real market and the expectations market. The real market is the world in which factories are built, products are designed and produced, real products and services are bought and sold, revenues are earned, expenses are paid and real dollars of profit show up on the bottom line. That is the world that executives control — at least to some extent. The expectations market is the world in which shares in companies are traded between investors — in other words, the stock market. In this market, investors assess the real market activities of a company today and, on the basis of that assessment, form expectations as to how the company is likely to perform in the future. The consensus view of all investors and potential investors as to expectations of future performance shapes the stock price of the company. Historically, professional managers played entirely within a single market: they were in charge of performance in the real market and were paid for performance in that real market. That is, they were in charge of earning real profits for their company and they were typically paid a base salary and bonus for meeting real market performance targets. Compensation rooted in the expectations market used to be rare. In 1970, for example, stock-based incentives accounted for less than 1 percent of CEO remuneration. But that all changed after the advent of agency theory. Implicitly, Jensen and Meckling had argued that the way to spur executives to best perform their duties in the real market was to make their pay significantly dependent on the performance of the company in the expectations market. This was a critical shift. After 1976, executive compensation became increasingly stock based, so that when executives produced a stock price increase in the expectations market, their compensation rose dramatically. In 2009, for instance, the highest-paid CEO in American was Larry Ellison of Oracle, and estimates suggest that 97 percent of his paycheck came from realized gains on options. Ray Irani, CEO of Occidental Petroleum, earned $31 million in 2009, including $1.17 million in base salary, a bonus of $1.2 million and restricted stock awards of just under $25 million. It has become an accepted premise of good governance that, in order to properly align their incentives with those of the shareholders, executives and board members must receive a substantial portion of their pay in the form of stock-based compensation. The market crashes of 2000-2002 and 2008-2009 did nothing to diminish this premise; in fact, they strengthened it. Few people conceive of the world of business in terms of real and expectations markets. Yet, there is another world in which the distinction between a real market and an expectations market is much more profoundly understood — the National Football League (NFL). While it isn’t a perfect metaphor for business, it is a highly instructive one. It is one we will pursue tomorrow. This post is excerpted from Fixing the Game: Bubbles, Crashes, and What Capitalism Can Learn from the NFL , to be published May 3 by the Harvard Business Press. Read more from Fixing the Game here .

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Roger Martin: Fixing the Game: The Unintended Consequences of an Economic Theory

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Ian Fletcher: Economists Shocked, Shocked: We Really Are Losing Jobs to China!

April 9, 2011

There’s a nice new academic paper just out by an MIT economist and his friends that gives some hard data to back up everyone’s suspicion that the U.S. is losing jobs to China. It’s entitled “The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States,” by David Autor, and you can download it here if you’re curious. The bottom line here probably won’t be all that surprising to most ordinary Americans, though it will annoy the living daylights out of most academic economists and our political establishment. In the authors’ own words, Our study suggests that the rapid increase in U.S. imports of Chinese goods during the past two decades has had a substantial impact on employment and household incomes, benefits program enrollments, and transfer payments in local labor markets exposed to increased import competition. These effects extend far outside the manufacturing sector, and they imply substantial changes in worker and household welfare. In ordinary language, we’re getting scr*wed, folks. “Welfare,” in this context, doesn’t mean welfare checks; it is the economists’ term for, roughly, “economic well-being.” And the “substantial changes” mentioned are not for the better. One key discovery of this study is hard data to back up the idea, which I have personally argued for years, that free trade is not a small-government policy. In reality, free trade tends to expand government, by increasing the demand for social services and transfer payments (unemployment, welfare etc.) needed to mitigate its social costs. As the authors put it: Growing import exposure spurs a substantial increase in transfer payments to individuals and households in the form of unemployment insurance benefits, disability benefits, income support payments, and in-kind medical benefits. Quite . But don’t think the butcher’s bill is paid for by all this welfare-state generosity. The authors conclude that all this government assistance doesn’t cover the harm done by free trade: Nevertheless, transfers fall far short of offsetting the large decline in average household incomes found in local labor markets that are most heavily exposed to China trade. Now here’s the real kicker: the authors calculate that the economic efficiency lost due to increased transfer payments is quite likely big enough to cancel out all the supposed gains in economic efficiency due to trade with China! Our estimates imply that the losses in economic efficiency from trade-induced increases in the usage of public benefits are, in the medium run, of the same order of magnitude as U.S. consumer gains from trade with China. In other words, the blithe assumption of conventional economics that “Sure, free trade has its costs, but the benefits are infinitely larger” doesn’t hold up. We’re either not winning out, or winning only peanuts. Finally, for any readers who have been smugly assuming that because they don’t personally work in manufacturing, none of this affects them, bad news. The authors report that, Our analysis finds that exposure to Chinese import competition affects local labor markets along numerous margins beyond its impact on manufacturing employment. In particular, while growing exposure to Chinese imports reduces manufacturing employment in a local labor market, it also triggers a decline in wages that is primarily observed outside of the manufacturing sector. Reductions in both employment and wage levels lead to a steep drop in the average earnings of households. (Emphasis added.) So don’t think there’s anywhere to hide from the China threat. Make no mistake, people: the case for free trade is inexorably crumbling .

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60% Of New Jobs Were In Low-Paying Areas

January 13, 2011

Following last week’s disappointing job report , investment research group TrimTabs brings us an even sharper picture of an economy not on the verge of an economic recovery. (Hat tip to Zero Hedge .) TrimTabs drills into the Labor Bureau’s data for new jobs added in last year, to reveal some unsetting details: “Of the 1.1 million private jobs gained in the last year, 650,000 or 60% are jobs that have absolutely no real wealth creation capacity, nor do they provide any real benefits.” 60% of new jobs went to Temporary Help, Leisure & Hospitality and Retail trade. Leisure and hospitality pays an average hourly wage of $13.14, while a retail salesperson brings in an average of $11.84 an hour, according to the BLS’ database. Temporary help services can be slightly more lucrative at the higher end (Registered Nurses earn $32.77 an hour), but packers and packagers only earn an average of $8.62 per hour. As TrimTabs puts it :

 These jobs are certainly better than no jobs. But for the economy to grow sustainably — without the crutches of $1+ trillion per year in federal deficit spending, zero percent dictated interest rates, and tens of billions per month in central bank debt monetization — American companies need to start generating more higher-paying jobs at home. Last December, the New York Times reviewed a grim reality for Americans returning to the workforce after a layoff. All too often, new job means a lower standard of living and less satisfying work. The effects are emotional as well as economic: “In many cases, these people are not very happy,” said Cliff Zukin, professor of public policy and political science at Rutgers University and one of the authors of the study. “They’re the winners who got new jobs, but they’re not really what they want, and not where they want to be.” Check out Zero Hedge for more information .

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Video: Jensen, Klein Say Staff Use Web to Influence Employers

November 12, 2010

Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) — Authors Bill Jensen and Josh Klein talk about the ability of employees to influence corporate decisions through social networking Web sites and their book “Work Hacking.” They speak with Andrea Catherwood on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.”

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Foreclosures Reduce A Home’s Value By 27%, MIT Study Finds

July 21, 2010

Thinking about defaulting on your mortgage? You might be putting a serious damper on the value of neighbor’s home. A single foreclosure can decrease value of homes within 250 feet to drop by an average of one percent, according to a recent MIT study . The study, which examined 1.8 million home sales in Massachusetts from 1987 to 2009, also found that the typical foreclosed home has its post-foreclosure price slashed by an average of 27 percent. (That number tends to be larger for houses with “low-priced characteristics in low-priced neighborhoods,” the study found.) By contrast, the authors note, if a house is sold after the death of an owner, the value drops five to seven percent. If a homeowner declares bankruptcy, the study shows, the price only falls three percent. Why do foreclosures cause such a large decline in a home’s price relative to other kinds of forced sales? In the study’s working paper, MIT economist Parag Pathak and two Harvard researchers, John Y. Campbell and Stefano Giglio say that foreclosed houses sell at such low prices “both because they may have been physically damaged during the foreclosure process, and because financial institutions have an incentive to sell them quickly.” Read the whole report below: Forced Sales –

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Arianna Huffington: Book Club Pick: Why 13 Bankers Is a Must-Read for Barack Obama, Chris Dodd, and Everyone Who Wants to Avoid Another Financial Crisis

April 7, 2010

The cliché tells us that you can’t judge a book by its cover. Agreed. But sometimes you can tell a lot about a book by the blurbs on its cover (and just inside the cover). Such is the case with Simon Johnson and James Kwak’s 13 Bankers: The Wall Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown , this month’s HuffPost Book Club pick. You know a book is onto something when, even in these politically polarized times, and dealing with a hot button issue like financial reform, it features side-by-side praise from both Jim Bunning and Alan Grayson. Yes, that Jim Bunning, who says that the book “makes it clear why ending ‘too big to fail’ and reforming the institutions that perpetuate it… are essential for our nation’s future economic prosperity and, more fundamentally, our democratic system.” Clearly, the need to reform our out-of-control financial system is not a right vs. left issue. (Full disclosure: I also did a blurb for the book). The book is also incredibly timely, with the Senate gearing up for a floor debate on Sen. Dodd’s financial reform bill when it returns from Easter break. While offering an in-depth explanation of the factors that led to the financial crisis — a crisis Johnson and Kwak prove beyond any doubt is not over — 13 Bankers has the immediacy and of-the-moment feel of a blog post, the sense that this is happening now. So this is a perfect moment for the HuffPost community to read this book and engage in a discussion about the key question it raises: are we going to take the difficult steps necessary to avoid the next financial meltdown — which Johnson and Kwak say is inevitable if we don’t rein in Wall Street — or are we going to continue to march to the drumbeat of an increasingly powerful financial sector that fills its coffers when times are good, and expects taxpayers to foot the bill and absorb its losses when the bubble bursts — at which point it fills its coffers again? This, according to the authors, “is ultimately a question of politics — whether the long march of Wall Street on Washington can be halted and reversed.” Johnson and Kwak offer a detailed and probing analysis of that long march. But before they do, they place it in a historical context, showing that the battle between concentrated financial power and the American democratic experiment is “as old as the republic.” The key takeaway from this section is a powerful reminder that America has faced problems like the ones we are dealing with today more than once in our history — from Thomas Jefferson to Andrew Jackson to the trust-busting of Teddy Roosevelt and the major banking reforms put in place by FDR in the wake of the Great Depression. The message is clear: we need a new Teddy Roosevelt to take on the modern equivalent of Standard Oil and J.P. Morgan. The most powerful — and frightening — part of the book is Johnson and Kwak’s breakdown of how, over the last 30 years, Wall Street has come to so thoroughly dominate American politics. In some ways it’s a familiar story — a follow-the-money tale connecting the dots between massive campaign contributions, the inexorable move of Wall Street power players into positions of political power (and back again), the massive push for deregulation by both parties, and the subsequent rapacious — and often fraudulent — behavior that led to the 2008 meltdown. But Johnson and Kwak imbue their narrative with the details — including a willingness to point fingers and name names — that give the story freshness and urgency. And that will make your blood boil. Consider: from 1974 to 2006 the average amount of money it took to get elected to the House went from $56,000 to $1,250,000. And the financial sector was front and center in this explosion — it was the top contributor to political campaigns over the last two decades. According to 13 Bankers , from 1998 to 2008 “the financial sector spent $1.7 billion on campaign contributions and $3.4 billion on lobbying expenses.” And the authors show that the money was targeted to where it would have the most effect: the campaign coffers of Senate Banking powerhouses like Phil Gramm, Alfonse D’Amato, Chris Dodd, and Chuck Schumer. Notice that the bankers’ money rained down on both sides of the aisle. As Dick Durbin said of the banking lobby last April, “they frankly own the place.” And, with financial reform on the agenda, the flow of money has only increased since then. Just as important as the flow of money has been the flow of Wall Streeters into positions of power, traveling what the authors call the Wall Street-Washington Corridor. You know the names: Paulson, Rubin, Josh Bolten, Neel Kashkari — the list goes on and on. “This constant flow of people from Wall Street to Washington and back,” write Johnson and Kwak, “ensured that important decisions were made by officials who had absorbed the financial sector’s view of the world and its perspective on government policy, and who often saw their future careers on Wall Street, not in Washington.” Johnson and Kwak make the point that the Wall Street takeover of Washington is far more complicated than a simple quid pro quo between donor and politician — and, as a result, far more difficult to eradicate. It centers on the rise of what the authors call the Ideology of Finance: “Campaign contributions and the revolving door between the private sector and government service gave Wall Street banks influence in Washington, but their ultimate victory lay in shifting the conventional wisdom in their favor, to the point where their lobbyists’ talking points seemed self-evident to congressmen and administration officials… because of [the banks'] ideological power, many of their battles were won in advance.” It’s one thing for a powerful industry to be able to buy influence. It’s another for that industry’s agenda to become conventional wisdom — across party lines. “Politics is like sales,” write Johnson and Kwak. “If you are trying to close a large deal with a major corporation, it helps to have friends on the inside, it helps to have buyers who see their fortunes aligned with yours, and it can even help to dangle the prospect of a high-paying job before the key decision-maker. But it is even better if the buyers really, independently want what you are selling. It is best of all if they believe that buying what you are selling is a symbol of their own judgment and sophistication — that buying your product marks them as part of the informed elite.” With the ideology of finance becoming the default belief system of establishment Washington, the big banks have become a powerful and dangerous oligarchy — one that has only gotten bigger and stronger and more profitable since the meltdown. Right after Obama’s election, Rahm Emanuel famously declared: “Rule one: Never allow a crisis to go to waste. They are opportunities to do big things.” But it is actually the very people who created the crisis that have taken advantage of it and done “big things.” “In the United States, we like to think that oligarchies are a problem that other countries have,” write the authors. “But the fact that our American oligarchy operates not by bribery or blackmail, but by the soft power of access and ideology, makes it no less powerful. We have the most advanced political system in the world, but we also have its most advanced oligarchy.” The only way to combat the entrenched power of the big banks, Johnson and Kwak argue, is to follow the path of Teddy Roosevelt and break up the banks. In making their case, the authors quote Alan Greenspan, who tried to absolve himself of blame during his testimony today to the Financial Crisis Committee. In a speech in October, Greenspan, the oracle of free marketers and a long-time proponent of deregulation, said of the megabanks: “If they’re too big to fail, they’re too big… So I mean, radical things — you know, break them up. In 1911, we broke up Standard Oil. So what happened? The individual parts became more valuable than the whole. Maybe that’s what we need.” 13 Bankers convincingly argues that breaking up the big banks is essential to avoiding another cycle of heady boom followed by devastating bust. Unfortunately, while the Obama administration is giving lip service to too-big-to-fail issues, actually ending too-big-to-fail is not currently on the table in Washington. But it needs to be placed there. And forcefully. I’m told that lots of copies of 13 Bankers are making their way around Capitol Hill. Even Chris Dodd told Don Imus that he is reading it. This could be the rare book than can actually have an impact on the vital debate happening right now in Washington. In the face of public pressure, the White House took a stronger position on financial consumer protection than it might otherwise have done. The same pressure needs to be applied when it comes to the megabanks. Reading 13 Bankers — and joining in our month-long discussion about it — is a good place to start. And be sure to read Simon Johnson and James Kawk’s first blog post about the book, coming tomorrow.

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Juliette Frette: Women Dominate… Almost!

March 12, 2010

As semi-inspiring as it may seem, the idea that women almost dominate is not actually a slogan to lead the new generation of powerful women. Instead, it is a simple description of our current stature in the United States workforce. According to an article by Karen Kornbluh and Rachel Homer called ” Paycheck Feminism ,” women are gaining on men in the workplace. Kind of. Numerically speaking, women now comprise almost more than 50% of paid workers. Which might make sense, as women also outnumber men in terms of world population by a slight margin. Should we thus occupy the corresponding jobs in that case? Would that be equality? Yet on an interesting and significant note, the recent economic downfall actually contributed to the higher proportion of female workers, as the majority of those who were laid off are men. Still, with or without the fiscal fiasco, women have been consistently gaining on men for years, and were thus destined to reach this inevitable threshold anyway. Yes. Women will dominate. And soon. So what does this mean for you? Shall we turn the tables and install a matriarchy once and for all? To even the scales of his story with our dictatorship? > groan< Sounds like a lot of work. Not that women are strangers to work. On the contrary: women still work the double or the triple day, fulfilling household duties even though they occupy more paid occupations than ever. Nevertheless, they do not make the same amount of money as men do for the same positions. Luckily though, the stats are improving. According to the aforementioned article, women make approximately $.79 for every male dollar — an improvement from when we made an average of $.70 for each male dollar a few years ago. Yes, we have advanced 9 cents. Fantastic! So are we done inching our way through societal glass ceilings? Probably not (or rather, hopefully not). In contrast to popular delusion, is not a ‘post-feminist’ era. That would imply that we are beyond the need for feminist progress and equality, which is apparently not the case. As illuminated by our authors in recent studies, which have mirrored previous ones from years gone by, our current institutions still favor “Leave it to Beaver” style family units that for the most part, no longer exist as a majority percentage of the population. In other words, most women no longer stay home while their husbands work to support the family. The proverbial ‘she’ does everything — and men are starting to share more household and child-rearing responsibilities. While doing everything is not necessarily a ‘bad thing’ for men and women, the institutions that regulate our society might need to accommodate the changing needs of the new generation. As feminist observers of the phenomenon, Kornbluh and Homer suggest the following revisions, which could be a great start to a better, more equal world. One glaring truth that strikes us right to the core is how women are shamelessly charged more for health insurance simply because of their gender. As quoted in their article: Women tend to pay more for individual health-insurance policies, even if they don’t include maternity benefits. Some insurers charge women as much as 50 percent more, while employers pay more per individual in their group health plans if their workforce is predominately women — a system known as ‘gender rating.’ Indeed: there it is in black and white. And to add insult to injury, women are more and more often refused coverage or charged extra for ‘preexisting conditions’ such as previous pregnancies. Or even more ludicrous: a woman can be denied health insurance or charged a higher premium if she has been a victim of domestic violence! Health insurance matters aside (as we all know that the system is fraught with corruption), the authors also advocate for granting benefits to part-time workers. Since part-time workers are disproportionately women due to family and care-taking responsibilities, such a measure would lend greater security to those who are already disadvantaged — an action that may lessen the blow of the uneven playing field. Furthermore, the notion of government-mandated maternity leave could very much help women succeed in their burgeoning roles in society’s new major work force. As such, a mandated paternity leave might also contribute to our goals for social equality. If ‘it takes two’ to create a child, then it stands to reason that both parents should be able to care for that child, and thus why not officially allow men to do so without relinquishing their jobs? And finally, equal pay for equal work would be nice. Although we are getting close, it will not happen without our consistent efforts. In the meantime however, the authors suggest that revamping the tax system so that married couples are no longer placed in higher tax brackets could be beneficial to women and society at large. An over-inflation of incomes that often overtaxes the lesser paid of the pair (which tends to be the woman), being taxed as a part of a married couple unit rather a separate indvidual may be largely unfair to all American families. Volunteering another aspect of potential tax reform, Kornbluh and Homer also support the idea of paid childcare as a viable tax-deductible business expense, especially if it allows an otherwise home-bound parent to work. While these are only some suggestions for improvement, there are of course countless ways to further our goals as we become a more productive, egalitarian society. Ultimately, ‘we the people’ definitely have the power to change and / or demand institutional reform that will be benefit the highest good of both men and women.

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Weight-Loss Surgery May Help Severely Obese Teens, Study Finds

February 9, 2010

By Jason Gale Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) — Weight-loss surgery was more effective at slimming severely obese teens and improving their health than two years of diet and exercise, a study found. Adolescents fitted with Allergan Inc. ’s Lap-Band device lost about 11 times more weight compared with a group following so-called lifestyle approaches, researchers in Melbourne said. The results reported today in the Journal of the American Medical Association suggest bariatric surgery is an effective treatment for younger obese patients, the authors said. Weight-loss surgery has soared in popularity among U.S. adults in response to rising rates of obesity. The procedure has been controversial because the quality of evidence to support it is poor, said Edward H. Livingston , professor of surgery at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center in Dallas and a contributing editor to the journal. The study’s findings “go a long way toward providing the evidence necessary to evaluate the benefits and risks of bariatric surgery,” Livingston wrote in an accompanying editorial. “Many insurance companies in the United States will not pay for bariatric surgeries, and their decision to not cover this treatment is based on the lack of compelling, universally accepted evidence in its favor.” Obesity Rate Doubled At least one U.S. adolescent in six — more than 5 million people — was obese in 2004, according to the study. The number of obese Americans has more than doubled over 30 years to 72 million, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. People who are overweight or obese have a greater risk of diabetes, heart attacks and strokes, the Atlanta-based agency said last month. Allergan had 2009 revenue of $238 million for products designed to treat obesity and most of it was from sales of the Lap-Band, said company spokeswoman Cathy Taylor in an e-mail today. The Irvine, California, company is testing the device in severely obese adolescents ages 14 to 17 and submitted an application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration last year for approval in that age group, she said. For the study, researchers at Melbourne’s Monash University followed 50 adolescents ages 14 to 18 over two years. All participants were deemed severely obese, having a body mass index , or BMI, greater than 35. Half were randomly selected for gastric banding and the remainder was asked to follow an individualized diet and exercise plan. Reversible Procedure Gastric banding is done when a surgeon places a band around the upper portion of the stomach to create a pouch to hold food, which limits the amount a person can eat. The reversible procedure is one of the two most common for weight loss, with the other being gastric bypass . In today’s study, two years after the start the gastric banding group had lost an average of 34 kilograms (76 pounds), representing an overall average loss of 28 percent of total body weight and 79 percent of excess weight, the researchers said. In comparison, the lifestyle group lost an average of 3 kilograms (6.6 pounds), or an average of 3.1 percent total weight loss and 13 percent excess weight loss. “Despite a comprehensive, behaviorally focused intervention, those in the lifestyle group were not able to achieve substantial weight loss,” wrote the study’s authors led by Paul E. O’Brien , director of Monash’s Centre for Obesity Research and Education. “Indeed, keeping adolescents and their parents involved in the trial for its two-year duration proved challenging.” Allergan supplied the Lap-Band Adjustable Gastric Banding system used in the research, the study said. Lower Risk Although the study wasn’t designed to measure improvements in specific health problems, it did demonstrate a reduction in a group of conditions associated with increased risk for cardiovascular disease and diabetes, the authors said. At enrollment, 9 study participants in the gastric banding arm and 10 in the lifestyle group suffered from so-called metabolic syndrome , as the group is known. After 24 months, none of the gastric banding group had the problem, compared with 4 of the 18 teens in the lifestyle group who completed the study. “Gastric banding proved to be an effective intervention leading to a substantial and durable reduction in obesity and to better health,” the authors said. The gastric banding group experienced no adverse events in the period shortly after surgery, the authors said. Eight operations to adjust the band or repair tubing connected to the band were required in seven patients in the surgery group. “The gastric banding approach to weight loss is not a quick fix,” the researchers wrote. Lifestyle treatments may achieve weight loss and improved health for some individuals and should remain the first option for obese adolescents, they said. The study was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council. One of the study’s authors, John Dixon of Monash University, reported consulting agreements with Allergan and other companies. To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Gale at j.gale@bloomberg.net

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Amazon.com Resumes Selling Some Macmillan Books on Web Site After Accord

February 6, 2010

By Joseph Galante Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) — Amazon.com Inc ., the largest Internet retailer, resumed selling Macmillan books on its Web site, ending a week-long fight with the publisher over the price of electronic books. Macmillan titles such as “Sarah’s Key,” by Tatiana de Rosnay, and “ Plum Spooky ,” by Janet Evanovich, were available in print version yesterday on Amazon.com’s Web site, though their digital editions weren’t. The return of Macmillan books, which had only been available on the site though third-party sellers since Jan. 29, is a step forward in the dispute over who should control the retail price of digital books — merchants or publishers. Hachette Book Group and News Corp. ’s HarperCollins have also said they will try to renegotiate terms with Seattle-based Amazon.com. “I’m delighted to be back in business with Amazon,” John Sargent , chief executive officer of Macmillan, said in an e-mail, the New York Times reported yesterday. Under the agreement, Macmillan will set the price of e-books, with most new titles costing $12.99 to $14.99. That compares with the $9.99 Amazon.com had been charging for most bestsellers. Macmillan will also get a 70 percent cut of sales, the publisher said. Amazon.com had typically given authors 50 percent of the list price and set the retail price, according to the Authors Guild , a New York-based group that advocates for writers. Sargent and Drew Herdener , a spokesman for Amazon.com, didn’t return e-mails late yesterday from Bloomberg News seeking comment. Market Control? Apple Inc. ’s introduction of its iPad tablet on Jan. 27 gave publishers another avenue to sell e-books. Publishers expressed concern that the price Amazon.com charged for best- sellers would eventually give it enough market control that it would demand lower wholesale prices, according to the Authors Guild. Macmillan had threatened to delay e-books to Amazon.com unless the retailer agreed to terms similar to Apple’s. Amazon.com responded by yanking Macmillan’s books from the site. Two days later, Amazon.com said it would meet Macmillan’s demands. The companies had been negotiating since then. Higher prices may help other retailers, which have been at a disadvantage to Amazon.com, said Aaron Kessler , an analyst at Kaufman Bros. in San Francisco. Amazon.com is able to set low prices because it can spread the cost of doing business across a high volume of sales. It would lose some of that advantage if it weren’t able to keep prices low, he said. Amazon.com rose $1.45, or 1.3 percent, to $117.39 yesterday in Nasdaq Stock Market trading . Its shares have fallen 13 percent this year. Macmillan is a unit of Stuttgart, Germany-based Verlagsgruppe Georg von Holtzbrinck. To contact the reporter on this story: Joseph Galante in San Francisco at jgalante3@bloomberg.net

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Gene for Speed Makes Breeding Top Racehorses a Safer Bet, Scientists Say

January 22, 2010

By Jason Gale Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) — A speed gene in horses is enabling thoroughbred owners to sort would-be sprinters from plodders from just a teaspoonful of the galloper’s blood. Scientists at University College Dublin matched the genetic code of 179 race winners with performance on the track to identify variants of the muscle mass-regulating myostatin gene that predict a horse’s optimum racing distance. The research , published Jan. 20 in the Public Library of Science Journal PLoS ONE, is the first known characterization of a gene contributing to a specific athletic trait in thoroughbreds, the authors said. Commercialization of the test may alter the course of a multibillion-dollar industry whose breeding practices have remained little changed for centuries. “Breeders currently rely on combining successful bloodlines together, hoping that the resulting foal will contain that winning combination of genes,” said Emmeline Hill , 36, a geneticist at the university and the study’s lead author. “Whether those winning genes have or have not been inherited could only be surmised by observing the racing and breeding success of a horse over an extended period of years.” The research was funded by Science Foundation Ireland, according to the study. $1,400 Test For 1,000 euros ($1,400), owners may submit a 5 milliliter sample of their horse’s blood to Hill’s Equinome lab to test whether the animal has inherited a specific myostatin mutation conferring speed for short-distance races, staying power for middle distances or stamina for longer events over 2.1 kilometers (1.3 miles), she said yesterday in a telephone interview. Equinome was co-founded in 2009 by Hill and Jim Bolger, an Irish racehorse trainer and breeder, to commercialize the gene test and pursue research on horse performance genetics. The company plans to begin offering the test at the end of January, according to a university statement. The test results, returned in about three weeks, also will help breeders make better-informed decisions on which mares to mate with which stallions, and tell whether a foal has a genetic predilection for early maturity, advantageous for racing as a 2- year-old, she said. “It takes out a lot of the guesswork and minimizes the risk of any future investment you may have for that horse,” Hill said. “This is a test for what your horse will be good at, not how good he will be.” Horse Genome Project Hill’s research follows the completion three years ago of the Horse Genome Project in which more than 100 scientists in 20 countries collaborated to define the DNA sequence of the domestic horse. The knowledge is enabling scientists to better understand the genetic aspects of equine physiology and disease. In humans, more than 200 genes have been associated with athletic performance traits, Hill said. Scientists expected many genes would contribute to overall performance in horses, so it was unusual that a single gene, myostatin, was so influential, she said. Hill and colleagues found that horses with the myostatin gene combination designated as C/C are better suited to fast, short races; those with the C/T variation tend to compete better over middle distances; and T/T animals have more stamina. C/C and C/T were more successful 2-year-old racehorses, earning an average of 5.5 times more prize money than T/T horses, the authors said. For bettors, the genetic information isn’t likely to yield any advantage anytime soon. “This information is for owners only,” Hill said. “If anyone wants to reveal the genetic type of their horse, then that’s at their discretion.” To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Gale in Singapore at j.gale@bloomberg.net .

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Homeownership in U.S. May Fall as Slump Wipes Out Equity, Fed Study Finds

December 27, 2009

By Vivien Lou Chen Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) — The rate of homeownership in the U.S. may fall in coming years as households rebuild equity wiped out by the worst slump since the Great Depression, according to a study by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “The official homeownership rate will likely experience significant downward pressure in the coming years,” Andrew Haughwout, Richard Peach and Joseph Tracy wrote in a paper posted on the bank’s Web site. Owners whose mortgages are larger than the properties are worth “very likely will convert officially to renters,” assuming prices don’t climb in the next several years, they said. U.S. homes have lost about $5.9 trillion in value since the market’s peak in March 2006 as mounting foreclosures and the recession weighed on prices, according to Zillow.com. The homeownership rate peaked at 69 percent in 2006 and has since dropped to 67.3 percent, a level not seen since 2000, the authors wrote. A drop in homeownership would have broader implications for the economy, boosting the national savings rate, they said. Foreclosure filings in the U.S. are set to climb to a record for the second consecutive year with 3.9 million notices sent to homeowners in default, RealtyTrac Inc. said this month. This year’s filings will surpass 2008’s total of 3.2 million as record unemployment and price erosion batter the housing market, the Irvine, California-based company said. To contact the reporter on this story: Vivien Lou Chen in San Francisco at vchen1@bloomberg.net

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Swine Flu Killed Older Adults More Than Young in California’s Hospitals

November 3, 2009

By Nicole Ostrow Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) — Swine flu is almost three times more likely to kill patients older than 50 once they become hospitalized than those younger than 18, a study found. Young people are still more likely than older adults to be infected, and the vast majority of H1N1 cases carry only mild symptoms. Among 1,088 people hospitalized in California, about 20 percent of those aged 50 and older died compared with 7 percent of those 18 and younger, according to a study today in the Journal of the American Medical Association. The reason for the discrepancy among hospitalized patients in different age groups is that the older a person is the more likely they’ll also have other medical conditions, said William Schaffner , a liaison to the U.S. government’s vaccine advisory panel who didn’t work on the study. “They’re much more likely to have a serious underlying illness such as diabetes, heart disease or underlying lung disease,” said Schaffner, chairman of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tennessee, in an Oct. 30 telephone interview. Those older than 50 may have some immunity to swine flu, also known as H1N1, which is why they aren’t getting sick as often as young adults and children, said study author, Janice Louie, of the California Department of Public Health , which conducted the research. Healthy older adults should still wait to be vaccinated until more of the vaccine becomes available, Schaffner said. Children ages 6 months to 24 years and pregnant women are the highest priority groups for getting the swine flu vaccine, according to the Atlanta-based CDC’s guidelines. 530 People Killed Swine flu, also known as H1N1 influenza, killed 530 people in 28 states from Aug. 30 to Oct. 24 and accounted for 12,466 hospitalizations nationwide, according to CDC . In today’s study, researchers looked at state residents who were hospitalized or died with laboratory evidence of swine flu between April 23 and Aug. 11. Among 1,088 cases studied, 32 percent were in children younger than 18, with infants having the highest rate of hospitalization. Fever, cough and shortness of breath were the most common symptoms. Overall, 118 people died, including eight children younger than 18 years and 51 people aged 50 and older. The most common causes of death were viral pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome, the authors said. The CDC said nationwide numbers aren’t available for how many people aged 50 and older have died of swine flu after being hospitalized with the virus. Last week the agency said that swine flu has killed 114 children in the U.S. since the outbreak surfaced in April, including 19 reported in the week from Oct. 18 to Oct. 24. Flu activity is now widespread in 48 U.S. states, the CDC said last week. Underlying Conditions Nearly 70 percent of those hospitalized in the study with swine flu had underlying conditions. In adults those conditions included asthma, diabetes and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. In younger people the conditions included seizure disorders or cerebral palsy. Of those hospitalized, 340 were admitted to intensive care units and a majority of the 297 with available information on them required mechanical ventilation. Seasonal flu kills about 36,000 people a year in the U.S. People older than 64 years, younger than five or who have specific medical conditions have higher rates of hospitalization and death from seasonal flu, the authors said. To contact the reporter on this story: Nicole Ostrow in New York at nostrow1@bloomberg.net .

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Harvard’s Rogoff Slams Four Toxic Words — `This Time Is Different’: Books

October 12, 2009

Review by James Pressley Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) — Wouldn’t it be nice to have $1,000 for every time a pundit proclaims an era of endless prosperity, consigning booms and busts to the dumpster of history? The next time you hear that canard (and you will) pour yourself a single malt and dip into Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff’s landmark study, “This Time Is Different.” Wherever you open the book, you’ll find proof that debt-fueled expansions have ended in financial ruin for hundreds of years. Rogoff is a Harvard University professor and former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund. He and Reinhart of the University of Maryland have pieced together an exotic array of data from 66 countries to produce what they call “a quantitative history of financial crises.” Deploying charts, tables and appendixes, they survey eight centuries of meltdowns, be they sovereign debt defaults during the Napoleonic Wars or hyperinflation in Zimbabwe this decade. Then they suggest ways to establish an “early warning system” to anticipate the next crisis. The authors have previously made some of their findings public in papers tracking the busts following booms in real housing prices . Their conclusions make grim reading for anyone trying to fathom how bad the fallout might be from the current crisis, which they call the Second Great Contraction. Prolonged Slumps Slumps like this are prolonged and deep, according to their data. Real housing prices, from peak to trough, drop a cumulative 36 percent over an average of some six years. Real gross domestic product per capita slumps an average 9.3 percent. Unemployment rises for almost five years, with the rate increasing about 7 percentage points. More unsettling still, government debt surges an average of 86 percent, driven mainly by plunging tax revenue, the authors say. In other words, $100 billion in debt swells to $186 billion after three years, adjusted for inflation. Why do meltdowns recur time after time? That’s the question Reinhart and Rogoff seek to answer in this engrossing volume. Their main answer is summed up the words of a trader who inspired the book’s title. “More money has been lost because of four words than at the point of a gun,” they quote the trader as saying around the time hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP collapsed. “Those words are ‘This time is different.’” You know the song. Boom times breed talk of a Permanently High Plateau, New Economy or Great Moderation. The longer the good times roll, the bigger debts grow , and the more people believe that “financial crises are things that happen to other people in other countries at other times,” as the authors say. ‘We Are Smarter’ “We are doing things better,” they summarize. “We are smarter, we have learned from past mistakes. The old rules of valuation no longer apply.” History teaches that debt-fed prosperity doesn’t last forever. Sooner or later, something triggers a crisis of confidence — whether it’s Edward III of England defaulting on his loans from Florentine financiers in 1340 or a mountain of subprime mortgages. Bank runs, fire sales and other unpleasantness follow. If you’re looking for a narrative history of financial crises a la Charles Kindleberger, this isn’t it. You’ll find only passing references to how Henry VIII clipped coins or how French monarchs executed their creditors — “an early and decisive form of ‘debt restructuring.’” What you get instead is a systematic and brisk tour of data culled from sources stretching back as far as 12th-century China. The result is a visual history laid out in beguilingly simple graphs and tables, making the book both definitive — a must read for professors and investors — and accessible to a wider audience. Serial Defaulters One table, for example, lists the repeated external defaults by European countries between 1300 and 1799. (France and Spain led the pack.) Other graphics show how domestic government debt often surges in the run-up to a crises, flashing a signal: Danger ahead. Data on domestic debt, it turns out, are hard to come by. This, even though (or perhaps because) debt accounted on average for between 40 percent and 80 percent of total government debt between 1900 and 2007. To piece together the trend, the authors dug into the archives of the League of Nations. It was “an exercise in archeology,” they say. Reinhart and Rogoff would like to see governments disclose this data, noting that “increasing public debt has been a nearly universal precursor of other postwar crises.” They also recognize the greatest drawback to monitoring such flashing red lights: Come the next boom, many people will dismiss the signals “as irrelevant archaic residuals of an outdated framework.” Then they’ll utter those four words. “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly” is from Princeton (463 pages, $35, 19.95 pounds). To buy this book in North America, click here . ( James Pressley writes for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.) To contact the writer on the story: James Pressley in Brussels at jpressley@bloomberg.net .

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Feds Balk At Google Book Deal

September 18, 2009

SAN FRANCISCO — The U.S. Justice Department advised a federal judge Friday that a proposed legal settlement giving Google Inc. the digital rights to millions of out-of-print books threatens to thwart competition and drive up prices unless it’s revised. The brief filed in New York federal court marks the first time that the Justice Department has publicly shared its thoughts about Google’s agreement with a large class of U.S. authors and publishers. The nation’s top law enforcement agency began looking at the Google book settlement earlier this summer amid a loudening outcry against an agreement affecting a reservoir of human knowledge. “The breadth of the proposed settlement…raises significant legal concerns,” the Justice Department wrote in its 28-page filing with U.S. District Judge Denny Chin. Despite its misgivings, the Justice Department expressed confidence that Google and the author and publishers could negotiate changes so the settlement will adhere to U.S. copyright and antitrust laws. The Justice Department told Chin it hopes an acceptable compromise can be worked out because the agreement “has the potential to breathe life into millions of works that are now effectively off limits to the public.” Even with those words of encouragement, the Justice Department’s brief raises the biggest red flag about the settlement yet. The agency warned Chin it probably will conclude the deal breaks federal antitrust law unless changes are made. While other critics such as Google rivals Amazon.com Inc. and Microsoft Corp. also have objected in recent weeks, the Justice Department’s opinion presumably will carry more weight with Chin. His approval is needed before the $125 million settlement can take effect, a hurdle that could be more difficult to clear with the Justice Department’s assertion that the agreement would violate several laws. “We are considering the points raised by the department and look forward to addressing them as the court proceedings continue,” Google said in a joint statement with the Authors Guild and the Association of American Publishers, the groups that sued and then settled with the Internet search leader. Critics seized on the Justice Department’s brief as validation of their arguments urging Chin to block the settlement. “The current settlement proposal would stifle innovation and competition in favor of a monopoly over the access, distribution, and pricing of the largest collection of digital books in the world,” said the Open Book Alliance, a group that includes Amazon.com, Microsoft and another Google rival, Yahoo Inc. The alliance also includes authors and several nonprofit organizations. The Justice Department’s lawyers, as well as a long line of the settlement’s opponents and supporters, will have an opportunity to elaborate on their arguments in a New York court hearing scheduled Oct. 7. Mountain View, Calif-based Google conceivably could use the Justice Department’s filing as a road map for navigating to new settlement terms before the hearing. In its current form, the settlement would entrust Google with a digital database containing millions of copyright-protected books, including volumes no longer being published. The Internet search leader would act as the sales agent for the authors and publishers, giving 63 percent of the revenue to the copyright holders. Authors and publishers could either set their own prices for their books, or rely on a formula drawn up by Google – a provision that has raised fears of the partnership turning into a price-gouging cartel. The Justice Department sided with those arguments, saying the settlement could lessen competition among U.S. publishers. The agency also expressed concern that Google would gain a monopoly on so-called “orphan works” – out-of-print books that are still protected by copyright but whose writers’ whereabouts are unknown. The arrangement “appears to create a dangerous probability that only Google would have the ability to market to libraries and other institutions a comprehensive digital-book subscription.” Hoping to ease those concerns, Google has promised to share its electronic index with its rivals – an idea that has drawn an icy response from Amazon.com, one of the world’s biggest book merchants and the maker of the Kindle, an electronic reader. Google already has gone into some of the nation’s largest libraries to scan about 6 million out-of-print books into its electronic index. So far, though, it has only been able to show snippets of those digital copies. The settlement would clear the way for Google to sell all those out-of-print books and scan even more into its index. The project has turned into a crusade for Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, who have for years dreamt of making books collecting dust on library book shelves accessible around the clock to anyone with an Internet ambition. That ambition has won Google broad support from librarians, disabled rights activists and big companies like Sony Corp., that wants to tap into the digital book index to feed its own electronic reader. While the settlement’s goals are admirable, the Justice Department said the deal doesn’t do enough to protect the copyrights of orphan works and authors outside the United States. The United States’ top copyright cop and the governments in Germany and France also have raised objections about the settlement overstepping its bounds. Consumer watchdogs are worried about the settlement opening a door for Google to collect too much information about the books that people are reading. Google has tried to address those concerns by promising to draw up a separate policy governing its digital library. The Justice Department didn’t address the privacy issues in its brief.

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Women With Heart Failure Aren’t Assessed Effectively in Clinical Studies

July 27, 2009

By Nicole Ostrow July 27 (Bloomberg) — Women with heart failure may not always be getting the best treatment because they’re less likely to enroll in clinical trials that assess the most effective therapies for them, an analysis of previous studies found. The research suggested that some pacemakers and certain medicines, known as beta blockers and aldosterone antagonists, may help women, according to research in the Aug. 4 issue of the Journal of the American College of Cardiology. There isn’t enough evidence to show whether some other common treatments, including implantable defibrillators, work for women as well as for men, the authors said

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French Fries in New York Get Healthier in Trans-Fat Crackdown, Study Finds

July 20, 2009

By Elizabeth Lopatto July 20 (Bloomberg) — French fries at restaurants run by McDonald’s Corp., Wendy’s/Arby’s Group Inc . and privately held White Castle Restaurants have 98 percent less trans fat and 10 percent less saturated fat in New York since the city’s health commission banned artificial trans fats in restaurants, a study found

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