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EIM USA Chief Antonio Munoz Is Said to Leave Busson’s Fund of Hedge Funds

by on March 11, 2010

By Tom Cahill and Katherine Burton March 11 (Bloomberg) — Antonio Munoz , chief executive officer of EIM USA Inc., left the U.S. arm of Arpad Busson ’s $9 billion fund-of-hedge-funds firm, according to two people with knowledge of the move. Munoz became head of the New York-based unit four years ago, said the people, who declined to be identified because the information is private. Gary Yannazzo, chief operating officer of EIM USA, will take charge of the office. Munoz and Busson, chairman and founder of Nyon, Switzerland-based investment firm EIM SA, couldn’t be reached for comment. A spokesman for EIM in London declined to comment. Busson, 47, had his first losing year in 2008, with EIM’s accounts down from 8 percent to 19 percent. The firm, which creates tailor-made portfolios for its clients, invested $230 million with Bernard Madoff , who is serving a 150 year prison term for leading the largest-ever Ponzi scheme. The firm’s assets have fallen about $2.5 billion since the beginning of 2009. To contact the reporters on this story: Tom Cahill in London at tcahill@bloomberg.net ; Katherine Burton in New York at kburton@bloomberg.net

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Michael J. Panzner: Forecasting with a Grain of Salt

by on February 11, 2010

Bloomberg News is out with its latest monthly survey of economists’ forecasts and, according to those polled, the U.S. economy “will grow 3 percent this year and next, more than anticipated a month ago.” Good news, right? Well, maybe not. If you go back and look at how the experts have fared when forecasting the pace of growth for any given quarter, let alone for the year ahead, their tea leaf reading skills have left a lot to be desired. Based on an analysis of Bloomberg monthly surveys published just prior to or at the beginning of each quarter over the course of the past decade, the professional prognosticators as a group have rarely been close to the mark. Except for the last quarter of 2007, when the economists’ prediction (published in September) came within 5 percent of the reported result, the differences in percentage points between their estimates and the actual readings have been in the double digits — at a minimum. In fact, on three occasions — the first quarter of 2000, the fourth quarter of 2002, and the third quarter of 2006 — the economists overestimated the pace of quarterly GDP by 1,133 percent, 2,400 percent, and 2,900 percent, respectively. Aside from the fact that many of the so-called experts still haven’t quite figured out that what the economy has been going through is anything but a garden-variety downturn, their history of poor calls on the near-term outlook suggest their longer-term forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt.

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Jeanne Kelly: Keeping the Love Alive With Your Credit

February 9, 2010

Every relationship takes work. While we all want the love to be there when we need it, ignoring your relationship, even just a little, can spark the beginning of the end. The same is true for your relationship with your credit. Here are some ways to keep the love alive and to keep that credit relationship thriving: Be on Time: Pay your bills when they’re due. Whether it’s a mortgage, car loan, or credit card, being on time with your payments will keep your report staying strong. Maintain a Healthy Balance: Maxed out credit will bring down your score. Work to stabilize that healthy credit you’ve worked for by keeping your balances to 20% of the high limit on revolving accounts. Keeping the Spark Alive: While having a number of open accounts is good, inactivity on them is not. A healthier credit score depends on using your accounts. To give your report that extra glow, mix it up by pulling out some of those old store credit cards once in a while. Taking the Long View: An enduring credit relationship depends on having long terms credit goals. When you apply for credit, remember you will be building a history with that creditor. Yes, credit is a lot like love. We all want it. We all need it. But it’s a two way street, and finding ways to maintain it is the key.

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Painful purge

February 5, 2010

property crashes, the exposure of dodgy deals and banks searching for a way to limit their losses. This real estate Little Armageddon is a normal punctuation mark at the end of one cycle and the beginning of another. Banks have already provisionally

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Hamptons Home Sales Increase 59% as Buyers Seek Bargains in Luxury Market

January 28, 2010

By Oshrat Carmiel and Prashant Gopal Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — Home sales in the Hamptons, the New York vacation getaway for dealmaker Stephen Schwarzman and movie star Sarah Jessica Parker, surged 59 percent in the fourth quarter as two years of declining prices lured buyers. Transactions climbed to 409 from 257 a year earlier, the biggest increase in seven years of recordkeeping, New York-based appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate said in a report today. Competition for properties pushed the median price up 4.9 percent to $917,900, the first year-over-year gain since the beginning of 2008. “This is all very good news, better than expected, but I still think we’re not through this yet,” Miller Samuel President Jonathan Miller said in an interview. “The surge in activity to more normal levels, a large portion of that is a release of pent-up demand.” The median Hamptons home price dropped 31 percent since 2007 as financial firms recorded $1.74 trillion in global losses and asset writedowns tied to sour U.S. home loans. Wall Street executives drive Hampton’s property sales. Part-time residents have included Schwarzman, chairman and chief executive officer of the Blackstone Group LP and billionaire Ronald Perelman. Hamptons sales slumped in 2008 and the beginning of 2009 as the financial industry cut 26,300 New York City jobs in 12 months, the state Labor Department said Jan. 21. New York City’s unemployment rate jumped to 10.6 percent in December, the highest level since 1993. “We have two macro issues, unemployment and credit, that are not expected to change significantly in 2010 from where we are now,” Miller said. “It’s more the second half of the year that I’m concerned about.” Price Cuts Hamptons home sellers cut an average of 14 percent from their asking prices to attract buyers in the fourth quarter, compared with discounts of 16 percent a year earlier, Miller said. Peter and Annette Smergut found a buyer for their East Hampton ranch-style house after agreeing to sell it for $815,000, a 19 percent discount from their original asking price. The 1,800 square-foot home includes a pool, pond and private beach access. The sellers got a deal of their own, purchasing a new place in East Hampton for $715,000, 28 percent less than the asking price 10 months earlier, said Peter Smergut. “It was a hit for us and a hit for them,” he said. Two other real estate brokers issued Hamptons sales reports this month. The Corcoran Group , based in Manhattan, said annual home sales tumbled 22 percent in 2009 and the median price dropped 4 percent to $830,000. Broker Views Town & Country Real Estate said the median price across 11 towns and villages that comprise the Hamptons fell 2.5 percent to $905,000 in 2009, while the number of properties changing hands climbed 4.9 percent to 1,045. Each brokerage report draws data from different sources. “The fourth quarter was the saving grace for all of 2009,” said Judi Desiderio , president and chief executive officer of Town & Country Real Estate . Luxury sales throughout the Hamptons and Long Island’s North Fork climbed to 55 properties, a 53 percent increase in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, according to Miller Samuel and Prudential Douglas Elliman. The median luxury price dropped 3.4 percent to $4.5 million. Miller defines the luxury market as the top 10 percent of sales, which in the fourth quarter included properties sold for $3 million or more. High-end sellers cut their price by an average of 17 percent compared with 9 percent a year earlier, Miller said. To contact the reporter on this story: Oshrat Carmiel in New York at ocarmiel1@bloomberg.net ; Prashant Gopal in New York at Pgopal2@bloomberg.net

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Stocks Tumble, Erasing Dow Average’s Gain for Year, on Obama Bank Proposal

January 21, 2010

By Michael P. Regan Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) — Stocks plunged, erasing the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s gain for the year, and Treasuries rose as President Barack Obama proposed limiting risk-taking at banks and concern grew that China will do more to cool its economy. Oil slid as gasoline supplies grew more than forecast. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index sank as much as 2 percent at 1:58 p.m. in New York, its biggest loss since November, as financial shares slid 2.7 percent as a group. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 1.8 percent as the benchmark Bovespa index in Brazil, whose largest trading partner is China, tumbled 2.6 percent. Ten-year Treasury notes gained for second day, sending their yield down four basis points to 3.61 percent. Obama proposed that banks be prohibited from running proprietary trading operations or investing in hedge funds and private equity funds as a way to limit the risk of another financial crisis. The plan comes just as banks around the world are recovering from $1.7 trillion in losses and writedowns since the start of 2007. “Financials are selling off and dragging down the market,” said Michael Nasto , the senior trader at U.S. Global Investors Inc., which manages about $2.5 billion in San Antonio. “There’s concern about an overhaul of financial services companies, with increased regulation, hurting the bottom-line of banks.” The concern over lending in China and banking reforms in the U.S. overshadowed better-than-estimated earnings at companies from Starbucks Corp. to Xerox Corp. and EBay Inc. which sent U.S. shares higher at the start of trading. Two-Day Slide The S&P 500 and Dow have lost more than 3 percent over the past two days, the biggest drop for the S&P 500 since the beginning of November and the worst for the Dow since July. An unexpected increase in initial jobless claims also weighed on the U.S. stock market. More than 60 companies in the S&P 500 are reporting fourth- quarter results this week and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg forecast total earnings grew 67 percent, with estimates for a 30 percent increase in the first quarter of 2010. The benchmark index’s valuation climbed last week to 25 times its companies’ reported operating profits, the highest level since 2002, following a 70 percent jump since March. The dollar rose against nine of 16 major currencies, led by a 1.2 percent advance versus the New Zealand dollar and gains of at least 0.3 percent against the Brazilian real and Mexican peso. The Japanese yen gained against all 16, rising more than 1.4 percent against the currencies of New Zealand, the U.K. and Brazil as Obama’s proposal triggered a flight from risky, higher-yielding assets. Bond Market Treasuries gained on demand for the relative safety of U.S. government debt. Ten-year notes erased earlier losses as the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index fell to 15.2 in January, lower than anticipated, and extended gains after Obama detailed his banking reform plan. The U.S. will sell a record-tying $118 billion in notes next week. Emerging market equities slid after China’s economy grew 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter, the fastest pace since 2007, the statistics bureau in Beijing reported. The growth added to speculation the central bank will curb record loan growth to prevent the economy from overheating. “The tightening in China is the biggest catalyst today because we’re all counting on China to pull global growth,” said Ralph Shive , the South Bend, Indiana-based manager of the $1.5 billion Wasatch-1st Source Equity Income Fund. “The jobless claims confirm employment growth is going to be difficult for some time. We need to start seeing some hard data that the recovery is starting.” Oil Tumbles Crude oil for March delivery fell $1.82, or 2.3 percent, to $75.92 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest price since Dec. 23. Gasoline inventories rose 3.95 million barrels to 227.4 million in the week ended Jan. 15, the Energy Department said in a weekly report. Stockpiles were forecast to climb by 1.75 million barrels, according to the median of 18 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. European shares followed U.S. equities lower, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index erasing a 0.6 percent advance and slumping 1.2 percent to its lowest level of the year. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3 percent. Greek bonds recovered after the yield premium investors demand to hold the nation’s 10-year debt instead of German bunds, Europe’s benchmark government securities, touched 301 basis points, the highest since the euro’s introduction in 1999. The yield on the two-year Greek bond slipped 0.3 percent to less than 4.39 percent. The bonds had slumped for seven straight days on concern the nation will be unable to trim its budget deficit, which is the highest in the European Union. Credit-default swaps on Greek government debt fell 11 basis points to 339, according to CMA DataVision prices, after climbing to a record 353.5 earlier. The contracts traded at 174 at the beginning of December. Greece’s benchmark stock index dropped 0.8 percent, bringing its decline since Dec. 1 to 17 percent. It slid as much as 3.7 percent earlier. To contact the reporter on this story: Michael P. Regan in New York at mregan12@bloomberg.net

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Hale "Bonddad" Stewart: 2009 Economic Year in Review: How Did We Get Here?

December 19, 2009

Because we are approaching the end of the year, it is appropriate to take a look back at the economy for the last year to see how we’re doing. This will be a two part series. The first is, “How Did We Get Here?” It will be a retrospective of the economic numbers for the collapse. The second part will be a “Where We Are Now” piece which will show, well, where the economy is now relative to where we were about a year ago. So, let’s get started. The fall of 2008 was marked by panic. After the fall of Lehman Brothers, there was widespread talk of a “deflationary spiral,” which is: … a situation where decreases in price lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and demand, which leads to further decreases in price.[7] Since reductions in general price level are called deflation, a deflationary spiral is when reductions in price lead to a vicious circle, where a problem exacerbates its own cause. The Great Depression was regarded by some as a deflationary spiral. Whether deflationary spirals can actually occur is controversial. Here is a chart of the year over year percentage change in US inflation for the last five years: Note the “cliff diving” that occurs in mid-2008: prices literally fell off a cliff. This situation is one of the most serious that can occur in an economy; it says that people have literally stopped buying things en masse. Here is a chart of real personal consumption expenditures (PCEs) for the last five years that shows the drop: This was the first drop in over 10 years indicating that something fundamental had changed in the US economy. Because PCEs comprise 70% of the US economy, this drop was extremely concerning. However, PCEs weren’t the only thing dropping. Real exports were dropping: As was total domestic investment: At this point, it’s important to remember the GDP equation: personal consumption expenditures plus investment plus net exports (or exports – imports) plus government spending = GDP. In other words by the end of 2008 every major element of GDP was dropping hard and fast. In other words, by the end of 2008 — early 2009, it was obvious the economy was at the beginning of an economic death spiral. This is exactly the same situation the country faced in 1929-1933 — which was originally mishandled horribly. So, that’s how we started the year. In the next article we’ll take a look at the economic numbers for the year to see how the economy is faring.

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Dubai Bonds Show More Aid Needed From Abu Dhabi to Repay 2010, 2011 Debt

December 15, 2009

By Arif Sharif and Laura Cochrane Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) — Dubai, the recipient yesterday of a $10 billion bailout from Abu Dhabi, has yet to convince investors it will meet all of its obligations. Debt from Dubai state-controlled entities DP World Ltd., Dubai Commercial Operations Group LLC and Nakheel PJSC remains as much as 28 percent lower than before the emirate said on Nov. 25 it was seeking a “standstill” from creditors. Standard & Poor’s said it won’t automatically reverse downgrades made to ratings on state entities since the announcement. Dubai’s cash needs are “not going to stop and go away,” said John Sfakianakis , chief economist at Banque Saudi Fransi in Riyadh. “There is still debt that needs to be settled in 2010 and 2011.” Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates and holder of 8 percent of the world’s oil reserves, provided $10 billion for Dubai’s support fund, of which $4.1 billion was used to repay a Dec. 14 Islamic bond of Dubai World’s property unit of Nakheel. The rest of the money will help keep state-owned holding company Dubai World operational until it reaches an agreement with lenders, the government said yesterday in a statement. At least $55 billion of Dubai and its state-owned companies’ bonds and loans are due in the next three years, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist Ahmet Akarli said in an e- mailed note to investors. Bonds, Loans Dubai, the second biggest of seven states that make up the U.A.E., and its state-owned companies borrowed at least $80 billion until last year to help turn the emirate into a tourist and financial service hub. The collapse of global credit markets led to a 50 percent crash in property prices in Dubai and drove concern some of its companies will be unable to repay loans. Nakheel has $1.73 billion of debt coming due in the next two years, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The company’s $750 million 2011 Islamic bond rose to 67 cents on the dollar yesterday from 36 cents on Dec. 11 and was unchanged at 9 a.m. in London, according to Citigroup Inc. prices. The securities, known as sukuk, are down 24 percent from 88.25 cents on Nov. 24, the day before Dubai World asked creditors to agree to a delay in debt repayment. The Nov. 25 announcement spurred Dubai’s steepest stock- market selloff in 13 months and Europe’s worst rout since April. Nakheel’s $3.52 billion sukuk tumbled as much as 62 percent in three days, according to Citigroup. Dubai World said Dec. 1 the restructuring would affect $26 billion of debt. Dubai’s DFM General Index of shares fell for the first time in four days, closing 1.5 percent lower. ‘Only the Beginning’ Yesterday’s bailout was “only the beginning of a comprehensive financial realignment process which may involve asset sales, debt restructuring and liquidation of insolvent entities,” Goldman Sachs’s Akarli said. “It is clear additional aid from the U.A.E. will be needed.” The emirate set up a financial support fund earlier this year to help state-related companies. The latest $10 billion bailout followed the sale of $10 billion in Dubai bonds to the national central bank based in Abu Dhabi in February and a $5 billion loan by two Abu Dhabi-owned commercial banks on Nov. 25. “More damage would have been done if Abu Dhabi had not come out with these resources,” Arnab Das , the head of market research and strategy at Roubini Global Economics in London, said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio. “There is probably going to be continued implications for other issuers that are heavily leveraged who don’t have short-fire access either to refinancing or bailout resources.” Dubai Holding Debt restructuring by Dubai state-run companies may almost double to $46.7 billion as more of the emirate’s businesses may need help making payments, Morgan Stanley said in a report Dec. 8. Another state-owned company, Dubai Holding LLC, may join Dubai World in restructuring debt, the report said. Abu Dhabi’s rulers “will not necessarily just bail out everyone across the board,” Sfakianakis said. “They will be selective.” DP World’s $1.5 billion sukuk due 2017 is 8 cents lower than on Nov. 24, after rising today to 86.8 cents on the dollar, according to BNP Paribas SA prices. The $500 million of Dubai Commercial Operation Group’s dollar-denominated debt due in 2012 is 28 percent lower than on Nov. 24. The size of Dubai World’s debt means that the restructuring would have to continue, which “could be painful,” said Mohieddine Kronfol , a managing director at fund manager Algebra Capital Ltd. That may “involve a haircut and a significant extension of loan maturity for banks,” he said. Dubai World has about $40 billion of bonds and loans outstanding, Goldman Sachs estimated. Of that, $8 billion will be maturing in 2010, $12 billion in 2011 and $5 billion in 2012. Dubai World may sell assets in the U.A.E. and abroad to repay its borrowings, Abdulrahman Al Saleh , director general of Dubai’s Department of Finance told Al Jazeera television Dec. 6. These are “assets belonging to the company and not the government,” he said. To contact the reporter on this story: Arif Sharif in Dubai at asharif2@bloomberg.net To contact the reporter on this story: Laura Cochrane in London at lcochrane3@bloomberg.net

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Dubai World Loses W Hotel In Union Square In Foreclosure Auction

December 8, 2009

NEW YORK — Dubai World’s investment arm, Istithmar, lost ownership of the W Union Square New York hotel in a foreclosure auction Tuesday. One of the hotel’s interim lenders, a private equity firm called LEM Mezzanine, acquired the 270-room hotel for $2 million, according to Dow Jones. The sale was another financial blow to Istithmar, which acquired the hotel in October 2006 for $285 million, according to Real Capital Analytics, a data tracking firm. Calls to Dubai World and LEM Mezzanine were not immediately returned. LEM said in a statement it plans to continue to operate the hotel and hopes to “take full advantage of any market recovery.” New York hotels have struggled in the wake of the national recession and financial downturn that have curbed business and leisure travel. Many properties have slashed their rates to attract business. At the beginning of December, owners of eight New York hotels worth a total of $985 million were in financial distress, including a Courtyard Marriott and The Time Hotel, according to Real Capital Analytics. The W was not the only Dubai World hotel in trouble. The Fontainebleau in Miami Beach is also in financial straits. The property’s $660 million loan was due in August. Contractors also claim the owner of the historic hotel owes them $60 million. The New York auction comes almost two weeks after Dubai World revealed it was seeking at least a six-month delay on repaying $60 billion in debt. The news rattled world financial markets and credit agencies slashed the debt ratings on Dubai’s state companies, saying they might consider the plan a default.

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Putin Drops Hint About Upstaging Medvedev With Russian Presidential Run

December 3, 2009

By Lucian Kim Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) — Vladimir Putin defended his record after a decade in power as Russian president and prime minister and hinted he may upstage his successor, Dmitry Medvedev , by running for the presidency again in 2012. “Don’t hold your breath,” Putin, 57, said during his annual call-in show yesterday when asked if he planned to retire from politics. There’s still “enough time” to think about the elections, said Putin, who favored Medvedev’s presidency last year because the constitution bans three consecutive terms. Medvedev, who is seeking a political voice distinct from his mentor’s, only hours later told reporters in Rome that he also doesn’t rule out running in the next elections. The 44-year old lawyer outlined his vision for a modern, democratic Russia in an address to the nation three weeks ago. Russia’s top two politicians are jostling for the public’s attention even as they profess a close working relationship and shared goals. Medvedev is staking out his own territory by criticizing the oil-based economic growth of Putin’s presidency, deploring the glorification of Soviet leader Josef Stalin and calling for an end to corruption and cronyism. In a four-hour call-in show, Putin fielded dozens of questions from citizens, who quizzed him on pensions, schools, medical care and job security. Putin, who began the tradition of the show during his eight-year presidency, reeled off figures from memory and outlined government programs, reminding viewers that “not all problems can be solved from Moscow.” Government Defense He defended his government’s performance in Russia’s biggest economic crisis in a decade, saying the worst was over and that growth may pick up in the middle of 2010 after contracting between 8.5 percent and 8.7 percent this year. He recalled the aftermath of Russia’s 1998 default, when inflation hit 84 percent, banks collapsed and savings were wiped out. There is no reason for Cabinet changes, Putin told reporters after the live broadcast. He rejected the idea of firing the entire Russian police force and starting anew, saying not all officers should be considered corrupt or abusive. Putin, who as president oversaw a return of state control to some of Russia’s key businesses, said the measure was a temporary effort to consolidate industries that had been broken up in the transition from a communist command economy. “State corporations are neither good nor bad — they’re necessary,” Putin said. “And I’d like to underscore that we have a common position in the country’s leadership.” Stalin Assessment Putin diverged farthest from Medvedev when asked for his opinion of Stalin. The prime minister said it wasn’t possible to make an “overall assessment,” since the Soviet leader was responsible for Russia’s industrialization and victory in World War II, as well as crimes against millions of his own citizens. Medvedev said in October that “the memory of national tragedies is no less sacred than the memory of victories,” and that nothing could justify Stalin’s “great terror” 70 years ago. Putin’s show lasted almost an hour longer than last year’s and cut off the beginning of a live broadcast of Medvedev’s visit to Rome yesterday. State television advertised the show since the beginning of the week, showing Putin criticizing bureaucrats, picnicking with farmers and inspecting a new Lada car. More than 2 million questions and comments were submitted by citizens by phone, SMS and e-mail, according to the Vesti news channel. The show was called “A Conversation with Vladimir Putin. Continued.” To contact the reporter on this story: Lucian Kim in Moscow at lkim3@bloomberg.net

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Roubini Sees Beginning of Asset Bubble on Investors `Chasing Commodities’

November 20, 2009

By Anabela Reis and Mark Deen Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) — Nouriel Roubini said investors are “chasing commodities” and there is a risk of new asset bubbles emerging as stock markets and commodity prices surge amid record-low lending rates. “There is a beginning of a bubble in financial markets,” with “asset prices going higher,” Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the global financial crisis, said in a speech in Lisbon today. Equity markets around the world have surged in recent months, with the MSCI World Index up 25 percent so far this year and by around 66 percent since its March 9 low. The price of crude oil has jumped 70 percent since the beginning of the year to about $76 a barrel in New York. Part of the increase in oil prices is “money chasing commodities,” Roubini said. “There is a risk that oil can rise to $80, $90 or $100 because of speculative demand” that doesn’t reflect economic fundamentals, he said. To contact the reporters on this story: Anabela Reis in Lisbon at Areis1@bloomberg.net Mark Deen in Paris at markdeen@bloomberg.net

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Rick Smith: Here Come the Potentialists! (rewriting the definition of success)

November 2, 2009

According to a new survey by an Australian newspaper, the recession has given rise to a new breed of people, called “potentialists”, who love to live life to the fullest and still want to continue with a lavish lifestyle, but one defined on their own terms. Social researcher Mark McCrindle commented on the results of his study; “People weren’t saying ‘gee it’s harder to get the dollars, I’m really going to have to work harder for the money and do longer hours to get it’. Actually, it’s the reverse. It’s not about a richness of bank account but a richness of lifestyle.” The report found that four out of five people were inspired by the economic gloom and the devastation of friends being retrenched to re-evaluate their lives. Sixty five per cent said that they are now more determined to live life to the full. Could it be?! An end to the mindless pursuit of more, and the beginning of a mindful pursuit of purpose! A new wave of global optimism based on the quest for lives we actually want to lead? Yes, for nearly everyone, the recession SUCKS! And so does the loss of a job. Or of a close relationship. Or any significant setback in life. But as Francis Ford Coppola once famously told me , “The seeds of great success are often right in front of you, hidden in the ashes of adversity.” Looks like some of us have finally decided to start digging…

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Lobbyist De-Registrations On The Rise

November 2, 2009

Lobbyists this year terminated their registrations with the federal government in unusually high numbers, according to a study by the Center for Responsive Politics and OMB Watch. The study found that 1,418 lobbyists de-registered during the second quarter of 2009 — a sharp increase from 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. The jump in de-registrations is a part of a larger trend since the beginning of 2008 when the number of lobbyists filing termination reports began outpacing the number of new registrations. Since January 2008, 18,315 lobbyists have filed termination reports. CRP and OMB report that typically just a few hundred lobbyists terminate their registration each quarter. The decline in registered lobbyists, however, doesn’t necessarily translate into fewer people working to influence policy. At the federal level, many lobbyists avert disclosure requirements under the Lobbying Disclosure Act by working under titles such as “senior adviser.” The drop could likely be attributed to the Obama administration’s new policies on lobbyists. The president issued an executive order earlier this year forbidding lobbyists from serving in executive branch positions. In September, Norm Eisen, White House ethics adviser, sent out an email to executive branch agencies recommending that lobbyists no longer be appointed to advisory boards and committees. All told, there have been 18,315 lobbyist termination reports filed since January 2008. Meanwhile, only 15,310 lobbyists became active again after previously filing termination reports. This leaves a total of 3,005 lobbyists who have effectively “de-registered,” of which more than half (1,691) have come since April 2009.

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Nikolay Davydenko Beats Rafael Nadal to Win Shanghai Masters Tennis Title

October 18, 2009

By James Cone Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) — Nikolay Davydenko beat top-seeded Rafael Nadal of Spain in straight sets to win tennis’s Shanghai Masters title and boost his chances of reaching the season- ending ATP World Tour Finals . Russia’s Davydenko, ranked No. 8 by the ATP Tour , defeated the second-ranked Spaniard 7-6 (7-3), 6-3 today to claim his fourth title this year. The 28-year-old collects a check for $616,500, while Nadal, 23, receives $302,000. “I was so tired at the beginning in the first set. At 4-4 I was thinking I have no chance to win,” Davydenko told Sky Sports. “I’ll enjoy this week and I don’t want to think about what’s going to happen tomorrow or in the next tournament.” Davydenko is competing for one of the three remaining spots at the eight-man finals in London next month. Nadal, Roger Federer , Andy Murray , Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin del Potro are already assured of places. Davydenko had the first break of serve in the third game today, with Nadal breaking back in game eight. The Russian then had to save a set point and come back from 0-30 on his own serve to force a tie-break. Three backhand winners helped Davydenko to take the tie-break. The only break in the second set came in the sixth game, sealed by Davydenko when Nadal hit a backhand wide. To contact the reporter on this story: James Cone in London at jcone@bloomberg.net .

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Global Investors Following Decline in U.S. Property Values with Growing Interest

October 14, 2009

While there has been a noteworthy decrease in the amount of cross-border real estate investment in the Americas since the beginning of the economic crisis, new activity is springing optimism that foreign investors are increasing their interest and preparing…

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Deutsche Bank Shareholder Spying Case Will Be Investigated by Prosecutors

October 8, 2009

By Karin Matussek and Aaron Kirchfeld Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) — Frankfurt prosecutors will investigate whether data-protection laws were broken at Deutsche Bank AG when the company spied on a shareholder. Supervisory and management board members won’t be investigated as part of the probe, prosecutors said. There is no evidence that they committed any criminal acts, prosecutors said in a statement. A Darmstadt, Germany-based data-protection agency had referred the matter to Frankfurt prosecutors in July after an investigation of the bank’s corporate security department determined there were possible privacy violations. Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank also faces a probe by Germany’s financial regulator BaFin. A Deutsche Bank investigation found that company officials authorized spying on a supervisory board member in 2001, a shareholder in mid-2006, a private individual at the end of 2006 and the beginning of 2007, and a management board member in mid- 2007, the bank said in July.

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GrainCorp to Buy United Malt for $655 Million; Increases Profit Forecast

October 5, 2009

By Tim Smith Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) — GrainCorp Ltd., eastern Australia’s largest grain handler, agreed to buy United Malt Holdings Ltd. for $655 million to reduce reliance on trading. “For a number of years GrainCorp has been examining ways of making company earnings more robust and less susceptible to seasonal variation,” Chairman Don Taylor said today in a statement. “With its Australian and international operations, UMH achieves this goal by increasing and diversifying GrainCorp’s future earnings.” The acquisition of what Sydney-based GrainCorp says is the world’s fourth-largest commercial malt manufacturer will add beer and whisky-makers as customers. The purchase will also add operations in Australia, the U.S., Canada and the U.K. United Malt Chief Executive Officer Jim Anderson welcomed the acquisition. Anderson will stay on after the deal’s completion, GrainCorp’s Taylor said on a conference call. GrainCorp’s shares have risen 45 percent since the beginning of the year, outpacing the S&P/ASX 200 Index’s 25 percent gain. Separately, GrainCorp said it would earn between A$60 million to A$63 million this fiscal year, the company said today. To contact the reporter on this story: Tim Smith in Sydney at tsmith58@bloomberg.net

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Existing-Home Sales Ease Following Four Monthly Gains

September 27, 2009

… percent of homes in August, and that distressed homes accounted for 31 percent of transactions; … National Association of Realtors, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing … aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries. NOTE: Beginning with this report, NAR …

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Default Rates Lower than Expected

August 30, 2009

At the beginning of this year Moody’s was taking a lot of heat for missing many financial company blow-ups, as well as the whole Mortgage-backed securities area where the grade AAA was clearly misapplied. So they forecast a scenario …

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Harvard’s Feldstein Says U.S. Economy `Weak,’ May Slump as Stimulus Fades

August 21, 2009

By Brendan Murray and Kathleen Hays Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. economy is at risk of dipping again after the government’s stimulus package runs out next year, Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein said. “The economy is still weak and it’s not at all clear that the upturn that we’ve seen recently is the beginning of a sustainable rise,” Feldstein said today in an interview on Bloomberg Television in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “There’s a serious danger that come the end of this year and the beginning of next year we will see it slipping back down again.” Feldstein endorsed Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke for a second term at the U.S. central bank after his current term ends in January. “He certainly deserves it. He has done a remarkably creative job of dealing with these problems,” Feldstein said. “They have kept credit going” and “the Fed has stepped in where the private markets have been absent.” To contact the reporter on this story: Brendan Murray in Washington at brmurray@bloomberg.net

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Iran Gives UN Inspectors Access to Arak Reactor for First Time in a Year

August 20, 2009

By Bill Varner Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) — Iran gave United Nations inspectors access last week to its Arak heavy-water reactor for the first time in a year and allowed increased monitoring of the Natanz uranium enrichment site, a UN official said. International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors went to Arak for the first time since August 2008, according to the official, who spoke on condition of not being identified. The Vienna-based agency also was able to install more surveillance cameras and data collection equipment at Natanz, the official said. Both steps had been requested in a report to the IAEA’s board of governors in June. An IAEA report in June said that almost 5,000 centrifuges were enriching uranium at Natanz, an increase of 1,000 since the beginning of 2009, and 2,000 more would be operating by the end of the year. Iran is under three sets of UN sanctions for its refusal to halt enrichment, a process to isolate a uranium isotope needed to generate fuel for a nuclear power reactor or, in higher concentrations, to make a weapon. The government in Tehran denies allegations by the U.S. and some of its major allies that it seeks an atomic weapon, insisting the nuclear work is intended to generate electricity. U.S. President Barack Obama has said the Iranian government must respond by late September to his invitation for talks on curbing the nuclear program. To contact the reporter on this story: Bill Varner at the United Nations at wvarner@bloomberg.net

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Hilton Checks Into New Tysons Headquarters

August 3, 2009

Hilton Hotels on Monday opened its new headquarters in Fairfax County, VA, completing a cross-country move from its longtime home in Beverly Hills.

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Newsweek: The Recession Is Over! But Not for You

July 25, 2009

Irrational exuberance, it’s not. But even stagnation would be an improvement over recent history. The U.S. economy shrank at nearly a 6 percent annualized rate between September 2008 and March 2009, a shocking slowdown that pitched the global economy into recession for the first time since World War II

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De Beers Diamond Sales Fall 57% as Global Recession Cuts Demand for Gems

July 24, 2009

By Ron Derby July 24 (Bloomberg) — De Beers , the world’s largest diamond company, said first-half rough gem sales fell 57 percent on lower demand after the U.S., Europe and Japan slid into recession. Rough sales dropped to $1.4 billion from a year earlier, De Beers said in an e-mailed statement today. Production slid 73 percent to 6.6 million carats after it shut capacity in Botswana and Namibia. The Johannesburg-based company had an underlying loss of $164 million compared with earnings of $350 million.

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Keynes Arouses Fed as ECB Looks for Monetary Exit: Mark Gilbert

July 19, 2009

Commentary by Mark Gilbert July 17 (Bloomberg) — The worst crisis in modern financial history is set to culminate in an ideological clash, pitting the Federal Reserve against the European Central Bank in a debate that will shape the global economy for at least the next decade. The catchphrase that will dominate central bank meetings for the rest of the year is “exit strategies;” now that the markets are showing some semblance of normality , how quickly should they be unhooked from the life-support systems that have transfused the banking system with government funds? Act too quickly in raising official interest rates and reversing the flow of liquidity, and economies might slump back into recession, bringing Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke ’s well-documented nightmare about deflation to life

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