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(MENAFN – Saudi Press Agency) The Group of 20 leading and emerging nations must play a role in stimulating global economic growth, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said in Beijing on Thursday, …

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It seems many of the big Chinese ad agencies are not headed up by Chinese people. Why is this the case? Did Westerners bring the “advertising industry” with them? The first clients who advertised big — i.e., with any degree of professionalism — were the large FMCG companies such as Unilever and P&G. When I arrived in Shanghai, Unilever was approximately 70% of our revenue. Today, this is certainly not the case. Local brands are absolutely critical to any agency’s bottom and top lines. If a 4A’s company doesn’t have a roster of local clients, they are simply not a player on the Chinese adscape. The fact that there are still many expatriates who run agencies — actually, there are fewer of them now today, but foreigners are still reasonably represented at the top and down a few levels as well — is one of the disappointments of our industry. (I included expatriate Chinese from Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore in this group.) Of course, there will always be a need for for individuals with an “internationalista” outlook for clients with operations centralized outside of the mainland. But advertising, as an industry, has had difficulty in developing senior local talent. It’s not a question of salary, that’s for sure. Nor is it necessarily a failure of “intent to groom.” The biggest challenge is, simply put, advertising is not fundamentally respected as a career path for many locals. They prefer careers that are more concrete, with a clearer “return on investment.” An adman’s key strength is the ability to articulate the abstract and lead clients to embrace what can’t be proven. We have to be conceptual warriors and this doesn’t appeal to many Chinese who tend to take refuge in the concrete. There are too many talented 35-year-olds who abandon the industry for a more “respectable” career. The ones who stick with it, the ones who have the capacity to inspire, are worth their weight in gold and we do everything possible to retain and promote them. JWT China has state-owned and private sector clients. How would you describe working with the state-owned organizations? All local companies have certain things in common. They are hierarchical and the big boss wields absolute control. So maintaining close relationships with the CEO, or founder, is absolutely critical. Establishing trust, rooted in a combination of value-added and empathy, is absolutely critical. That said, there are differences. Large state-owned enterprises tend to be much more Byzantine in terms of decision making, with one eye focused on the market and the other on political imperatives. Smaller local (private) enterprises are more entrepreneurial, more apt to take risks and decide things relatively quickly. They also tend to be more receptive to “unsafe” creative. The “joys” of working with local companies, despite the operational and relationship management challenges, is that they are genuinely passionate about their brands. Their ambitions are huge. They also have a natural appreciation of the ins and outs of both the Chinese market and the Chinese consumer, leading bolder experimentation, assuming the stars are aligned in terms of clear objectives and open communication. From an ad agency’s perspective, it’s very much high-risk, high-return. I’m as proud of the work we do for our local clients such as Anta or COFCO (China’s largest food conglomerate) as I am from some of our largest multinational companies such as Ford or Nokia or Microsoft. Supposedly Chinese marketing managers find it very difficult to adopt new creative ideas. If you could say five things to these people what they be? The pitch I always give to local business leaders is simple: robust brand equity — i.e., active consumer loyalty for a brand — leads to premium prices and a high P/E ratio. Beloved brands are, to state the obvious, emotional propositions, ones that fuse functional and emotional appeal. Most need convincing that when function and emotion are “aligned,” they are mutually-reinforcing, and there is no need to “choose” between tactical and thematic, between nuts and bolts and evocative messages. But they need a reorientation to help them grasp how “brand ideas” are constructed and I think JWT is quite good at translating global brand building truths into a “paradigm” or “framework” that leads to long-term propositions and justifies price premiums — of both their brands and JWT’s services! So, to answer your question, we must always reinforce the link between business imperatives and creativity. We can never take it for granted that this tenet is implicit. I can’t think of a “five things” to say to them, other than what I’ve mentioned. But the analytical robustness of any recommendation has to be empirically bullet proof. Once they endorse the logical thought flow, from underlying business problem to creative solution, minds open, and decision makers are able to put themselves more easily in consumers’ shoes, folks who, it goes without saying, do appreciate creativity. JWT places a lot of importance on local knowledge. With China being such a vast and diverse place with various tierings, and customs and values of people differing from province to province, how does one advertise to the Chinese population? Is there a one size fits all? Of course, one size doesn’t fit all. But there are “unifying themes” and “variations” on these themes. It’s like a Bach Fugue; there is a primary melody with interpretations of that to address target consumer and geographic considerations. Some roll their eyes when I harp on about a Chinese “worldview” that is fundamentally different from Westerners’ basic motivations. But smirks be damned. In order to touch hearts, brands need to be brought into alignment with this worldview. After 13 years here, I am fundamentally convinced that there is a unifying “Confucian” conflict — between self-protection and status projection — that brands have a fundamental role in resolving. Unlike practically any other country (Korea and Vietnam come closest), China is both boldly ambitious (ladders are meant to be climbed and meritocracy is a cherished value) and regimented, with hierarchical and procedural booby traps for anyone who hasn’t mastered the “system.” This tension between upward mobility and fear-based conformism shows up everywhere, in every business meetings, in every struggle with a mother-in-law, in every new generation release on the internet. Brands that help consumers simultaneously stand out and fit in have the greatest appeal. Diamonds, for example, are popular because their sparkle is conspicuous but, at the same time, elegant and understated. The same goes for Mont Blanc’s six-point logo. Rejoice shampoo’s proposition fuses confidence and softness. All communications needs to position products as a “means to an end,” with clear return on investment. And all products must dramatize “public consumption” in order to justify a price premium. That said, this “unifying theme” needs to be interpreted for different socioeconomic tiers. In lower-tier markets, for example, definitions of success are more short-term, more inextricably linked to home and hearth. We also tend to emphasis that protection side of the equation because non-middle class consumers — people who have benefited less from waves of economic reform — are less convinced that the world is safe. Likewise, brands are less familiar is Tiers 3-5 cities so communications has to be simpler and more direct and the role of in-store experience and reassurance is even more fundamental than in primary markets. And young consumers are definitely more into self-expression — though this is about ego affirmation, not Western individualism, a point many of my industry colleagues disagree with me on — than older age cohorts. So, yes, age and income are “variables” that very much need to be considered and, no, one size does not fit all. But you don’t need to completely reinvent the wheel every time you develop a strategy for a different market target. I also believe the claim “China is many countries” is often (but not always) a canard, a red herring. China is unified by timeless cultural imperatives. We frequently confuse geographic discrepancy with socio-economic and age differences, two fundamental confounding variables. I know you get asked this all the time but how do brands build a name across China? Western firms seem to roll-in to China with products, like the Apple iPhone, but really only consumers living tier 1 cities such as Beijing and Shanghai can afford them. Do big brands like Apple need to create an almost ‘value’ range to reach the lower-tier consumers of China? Are the lower tier consumers even on Western brand agendas? There is a middle class in every city. Once you realize that individuals earning 20,000 RMB per month in both Shanghai and Wuhan have more in common with each other than do denizens of specific cities in at different socio-economic strata, things become simpler. Apple is a middle class hit… everywhere. Inland consumers who can afford, say, a Ford Focus are almost as sophisticated in terms of buying an auto as their coastal cousins, with the caveat that care must be taken to keep messages simpler for first-time, usually lower-tier, buyers. That said, brand tiering is a fundamental challenge for brands as the expand geographically. Practically all of Procter & Gambles products have cheaper variants and they have pursued this strategy with a relative degree of success. In the Apple era, Nokia’s non-smart phone range at the rural fringe is a powerful weapon to win “the next billion” mobile phone buyers. Chinese revere scale and “big brands” — i.e., ones that extend across price tiers — reassure; to boot, any brand that does not boast both margin and scale will have a difficult time taming unwieldy distribution channels. However, we need to keep in mind that the “cheaper” products are targeted at less affluent consumers. Extreme care must be taken to avoid equity adulteration of the premium variants as the brand is extended downward. This is a tricky minuet and some of the best marketers have fallen by upsetting a delicate price-value equation. As a rule, expensive brands should be used to build image and tactical promotion of inexpensive versions should take place closer to the point of purchase. What are the key differences and similarities between Chinese and Western consumers? There are two key differences. First, all benefits in China are externalized; Chinese egos are huge — I always say every Chinese has a dragon in his or her heart — and they demand societal acknowledge for their contributions to and success within society. They are not individualistic in a Jeffersonian sense as are Westerners, who respond, in many cases, to “internalized” benefits. Luxury goods, for example, are a tool for career advancement in China. In the West, they are often appreciated for their own intrinsic quality. In shower gel, the leading Western brands have “sensual indulgence” as a core proposition. In the PRC, the key benefit is “an energizing shower experience that helps me start the day with a kick.” (Sometimes, this difference can be quite subtle. Europeans go to spas to relax. Chinese go to recharge batteries.) Second, there is absolutely, positively no cynicism towards brands in China. As said above, they are vital tools of advancement. Furthermore, in a constricted mass media environment and a society with a narrow definition of success, brands are the most powerful badges of identity. Brand communications is, by far, the freest form of expression and, for that reason, beloved. Of course, the Chinese are suspicious shoppers — they don’t take quality for granted to reassurance in terms of both quality and impact on image is critical — but there isn’t cynicism. We have not entered a post-modern communications era here, and I doubt we will, given fundamental role brands play in consumers’ identities. It’s worth noting that the digital world differs here too. “Emotional release” is a critical driver — there are already 150 million micro-bloggers! — and this urge is fueled by on-line anonymity. For Facebook to succeed in China, it would have to scrap its “real name” policy. Despite the explosion of lifestyle alternatives and individualism as an aspiration, the Chinese are constricted when it comes to self-expression. In this respect, the internet is a blank canvas on which to paint dreams. Of course, e-commerce is exploding in the PRC, just like anywhere in the world. But, again, “transactional safety” must be reinforced and most cash is usually exchanged only after consumers have been given a chance to kick the tires of a product. Advertising is about persuasion, I guess this might be a question of Chinese culture, but if the Government said all its people ‘should,’ not must, sign-up to a ‘China Mobile’ tariff do you think they would? Interesting question. Let’s put it this way — it would certainly help. The Communist Party is still the quintessence of authority and its “endorsement” would reassure many safety-seeking buyers. To boot, the backing of the government would translate into immeasurable distribution/channel clout. On a lighter note, people may not realize this but you were actually lucky enough to be an Olympic torch bearer at the Beijing Olympics, how did the opportunity come about and what was it like? I loved being a Torch Bearer. I was invited by a client, Lenovo, that was also an official sponsor of the event. Despite all the propagandist stage management, the moment my foot hit the pavement — we all got dispatched from buses at our designated running points — the crowd went wild. Not for me, of course, but for the torch and everything it represented about China’s ascension to superpower status. Adding more emotion to the moment was the Sichuan earthquake, from which the nation was still recovering, and the media furor over the Tibetan protests. People were afraid the Olympics would, in the yes of the world, “fail.” So the Torch relay, at a historic juncture, morphed into a national declaration of perseverance. It was moving, even inspiring. This interview was originally published on ChinaSMACK, a leading website on China’s media, advertising and popular culture.

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Tom Doctoroff: Advertising in China: What’s New, What’s Not

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The Piacente Group Appoints Amber Jesic as Operations Manager

May 19, 2011

NEW YORK, NY–(Marketwire – May 19, 2011) – The Piacente Group, Inc. (“TPG”) , a full service investor relations consulting firm with offices in New York, California and Beijing, today announced that Amber Jesic has joined the firm as operations manager. In this capacity Ms. Jesic is responsible for managing finance, information technology, recruitment, and internal policies and procedures.

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How China’s Growing Middle Class Is Raising Food Prices

May 11, 2011

BEIJING — Hunger was such a constant companion in Yao Qizhong’s childhood that even now, at age 40, he’ll stoop down to salvage a single clove of garlic that falls from his table at the Beijing market where he hawks fresh produce. Life is less harsh these days, but China’s fast-rising food prices have hit his family hard, making it increasingly difficult to save for his three kids’ education – Yao’s main goal. Across town, Zhong Sheng rinses a still-twitching Mandarin fish and picks the stems from a handful of greens as he expounds on his philosophy of grocery shopping. Health and safety are his top concerns, ever since the architect became a father five years ago. Cost is a secondary consideration. “You can buy cheap stuff,” says Zhong as he and his wife cooked together and the smells of soy and scallion filled their cozy kitchen, “but if it makes you sick, you’re going to end up paying more anyway in hospital fees.” The starkly contrasting fortunes of the Zhong and Yao families offer a glimpse into how soaring food prices are playing out in the developing world – home to more than three quarters of the globe’s 6.9 billion people. Prosperity and a fast-growing middle class have cultivated more sophisticated and exotic tastes. Such luxuries as blueberries, avocado, asparagus, and endive, recently unattainable to all but the wealthiest, are now widely available in China’s big cities. But rising affluence has taxed the ability of farmers to meet growing demand while the rural labor pool dwindles. The result: Rising food prices hit every level of society, not just those who can afford imported South American bananas or pricey mushrooms and herbs from China’s remote Yunnan province. People on low or fixed incomes feel the pinch most. “We don’t dare to try and eat good stuff because we can’t afford it,” says Yao, whose four grandparents starved to death during China’s 1960 famine. He was so poor growing up in rural Anhui province that his neighbors assumed he would end up a beggar on the streets. “If I go to a supermarket,” he says, “it’s a novelty, like sightseeing.” In China, farm workers have flocked by the millions to factory and service jobs in coastal cities. Luring them back to till and weed by hand is proving a tough sell. The resulting supply pinch helped send food prices up 11.7 percent in March from the year before, adding to months of steep increases. “You can’t find (farm) workers and they’re expensive, over a dollar (7 yuan) an hour,” said Liu Li, a wholesaler hawking Napa cabbage and coriander at Beijing’s Xinfadi, north China’s biggest agricultural distribution center. People in the countryside want factory work or a job in the service industry, where they’d get to stay indoors and have a warm place to sleep, said Liu. Farm work, she said, is “too dirty and too hard.” Even with sharply higher food prices, Zhong, who runs his own business and has a master’s degree from a prestigious Beijing university, can afford to be picky. Besides he sees good reason to favor more expensive organically grown and imported foods after infant formula tainted with an industrial chemical killed six children and sickened 300,000 in China in 2008. Zhong, his wife and daughter sit down to a typical dinner of steamed fish, two types of greens, mushrooms, pork, rice and sliced apples. Total cost, about 80 yuan ($12). Each month the family spends some 2,000 yuan ($307) on food – about 10 percent of their income. Yao, who left the countryside more than two decades ago, still eats like a peasant, filling up on cheap steamed buns and noodles and pinching every penny so that he can put his kids through school. For him, meat is a once-a-week treat, though he tries to make sure his children eat it more often. As a migrant laborer, Yao has been able to skirt China’s strict birth limits, having three kids instead of the two most rural families are limited to. But his migrant status means he must pay school fees himself. A recent and routine lunch for Yao and his wife and children was a bowl of simple noodles with greens. Yao’s ginger and garlic stall earns him about 2,000 yuan ($307) a month, of which about 600 yuan ($92) goes on food for his five-person family. “I need to save money but I feel like I am already scraping the bottom of the barrel,” he said. “At the same time, I know we have to feed ourselves and eat enough, otherwise our health is going to be affected.” A host of other factors are also blamed for food prices hikes in China and elsewhere in Asia, including too much money sloshing about the economy after stimulus policies that warded off the global recession, rising oil prices and shrinking land for cultivation because of pollution and encroachment by industry. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Office’s index of global prices for meat, cereals and dairy foods has surged 37 percent in the first three months of 2011. In many Asian countries, that has translated into a 10 percent increase in local food prices, which the Asian Development Bank estimates is enough to drag another 64 million people below the $1.25 a day poverty line. Yet the changes in food and work preferences aren’t all bad because they reflect the human and economic development taking place in China, said Scott Rozelle, an agricultural economist at Stanford University and an expert on China’s food markets. Rozelle says that China’s scattered and small scale farms are becoming more consolidated and mechanized, which could eventualy raise productivity, but the changes probably won’t stop food prices from rising. Economic development involves both increases in prices and incomes, he says. Higher food prices have in fact lifted lagging rural incomes. The per capita net income for rural Chinese grew faster than urban incomes last year, jumping 10 percent to 5,919 yuan ($902). Rural Chinese are “going from grinding poor to poor,” said Rozelle, describing villages he’s seen with new brick homes and gravel roads, where all the girls go to school and every family has a mobile phone. But the changes feel painful for many urban dwellers, particularly retirees, civil servants and migrants, like Yao, whose incomes haven’t kept pace. And the discontent that a widening gap between privileged and poor can generate deeply worries China’s communist leaders, who are mindful that the anti-government protests that toppled Egypt’s government earlier this year were triggered in part by discontent over climbing food costs. Yao says he envies people who can eat what they like without concern for cost, but tries not to dwell on it. “Yes, it’s unfair,” he said. “But I know I just have to keep going. I have to work hard and it will get better.” Even those benefiting from China’s rising prosperity such as Zhong, the Beijing architect, are concerned. “Their incomes are not rising as fast so for them this is difficult,” he said. “I think the government needs to find a way to help them raise that sector’s incomes too, and take care of them.”

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2nd Annual Smart Grid China Summit 2011 To Be Held In Beijing

May 10, 2011

2nd Annual Smart Grid China Summit 2011 To Be Held In Beijing

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China- iPad2 violence in Beijing

May 9, 2011

China- iPad2 violence in Beijing

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Robert Kuttner: China: Be Careful What You Wish for

May 2, 2011

The global economy may be a mess, but the world’s central bankers like to congratulate themselves for one thing. Inflation has been tamed. Sorry, bankers, but the low level of price inflation has little if anything to do with skilled central banking. In the short run, the absence of price pressure reflects the prolonged recession. And for the past decade or so, the low inflation is the result of China’s low wages. That’s right. Consumer prices are flat in substantial part because China sends us so much stuff, dirt cheap. This puts downward pressure on prices. The real price is paid both by Chinese workers who are paid a pittance and by American workers who either restrain their own wages or watch jobs move to China. But all that may be changing, and the change will be a mixed blessing. China, long politely criticized by the US government for managing the value of its currency, is now allowing the renminbi gradually to rise in value. Analysts say China wants a stronger currency to fight inflation. China is both contributing to the inflation and suffering from it, by being such a large new buyer of raw materials that it drives up prices. A stronger Chinese currency means that the price impact is buffered — for the Chinese. China has also been criticized for its low wages. But the Beijing regime has also begun allowing wages to rise, as part of its strategy of domestic development. Bottom line, stuff from China won’t be quite as cheap. That, along with the impact of higher worldwide commodities prices, means higher inflation on the horizon for the US. Unlike the Chinese, we are not letting our currency appreciate in value. We are watching it fall. What does all this mean? Economics, infamously, is the science of on-the-one-hand-this, on-the-other-hand-that. On the one hand, it’s about time that China let its currency behave more like others and began paying its workers more than a pittance. A more expensive Chinese currency and better Chinese wages will be marginally good for American exports, and also good for US wages. On the other hand, the free ride on inflation may be ending. If so, we could face pressure to raise interest rates at a time when the economy is still suffering from very slow growth and very high unemployment. That means a worse recession. Professor Charles Kindleberger famously argued in his 1973 book, The World in Depression, that the world economy needs a hegemonic monetary power, to provide a reliable currency, and to be both a lender and a market of last resort. Britain played that role in the 19th century, and the US after World War II. According to Kindleberger, the interwar period was such an economic disaster because no country played that role. China is fast becoming the monetary hegemon of the 21st century. It has done a benign job of buying our bonds at low interest rates. But it has done a terrible job of opening its markets or managing its currency in the world’s interest. On the contrary, its behavior has been entirely mercantilist, in its own self interest. But if China starts behaving more like a normal nation, we could end up paying more to sell our bonds, and having to deal with higher inflation as well. And, increasingly, China will be in the drivers seat. No hegemonic power is entirely benign. But the US in the postwar period wasn’t bad. It’s hard to imagine China bearing its new-found economic power entirely with altruism. Yet it would be comforting, but misleading, to scapegoat the Chinese. Yes, they do poach American jobs by subsidizing industry and paying crappy wages. But for the most part, the current crisis was made in U.S.A. If we had had an industrial policy, we’d have a stronger manufacturing sector. If we hadn’t let banks go nuts, we wouldn’t have a prolonged economic stagnation. And if we hadn’t gutted our tax code to reward the rich, we wouldn’t have a huge deficit that required the Chinese to buy so many bonds. Like it or not, China is now the 800 pound gorilla of the world’s economy. The thing about such beasts is that tend to do what they please. Robert Kuttner is co-editor of The American Prospect and a senior fellow at Demos. His latest book is A Presidency in Peril .

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The 4th China International Agribusiness Summit 2011 To Be Held In June In Beijing

April 4, 2011

The 4th China International Agribusiness Summit 2011 To Be Held In June In Beijing

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Govt new policies hinder home sales in Beijing

March 16, 2011

Govt new policies hinder home sales in Beijing

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3,001 Arrested For Product Piracy In China’s Latest Crackdown

March 13, 2011

BEIJING — Chinese authorities have arrested 3,001 people in their latest crackdown on rampant product piracy and seized fake or counterfeit medicines, liquor, mobile phones and other goods, officials said Sunday. The campaign launched in October comes as Beijing faces pressure from the United States and other trading partners to stamp out product copying. China is a leading soure of fake goods despite repeated crackdowns, but Chinese officials have promised the latest enforcement will produce lasting results. Communist leaders have given the new crackdown special prominence, publicly linking it to efforts to transform China from a low-cost factory to a creator of profitable technology by nurturing companies in software and other fields. China’s fledgling software, music and other creative companies have been devastated by unlicensed copying. “Intellectual property protection is essential for building an innovation-oriented country and achieving a shift from `China manufactured’ to `China innovated,’” Li Chenggang, deputy director of the Commerce Ministry’s law department, said at a news conference. He was joined by officials of China’s commerce, intellectual property and other agencies. Trade groups say illegal Chinese copying of music, designer clothing and other goods costs legitimate producers billions of dollars a year in lost potential sales. The American Chamber of Commerce in China says 70 percent of its member companies consider Beijing’s enforcement of patents, trademarks and copyrights ineffective. Businesspeople have expressed optimism about the latest effort because a rising Communist Party star, Vice Premier Wang Qishan, has been put in charge and an enforcement office set up in the Commerce Ministry. A report distributed at Sunday’s news conference said that goods seized in the latest crackdown include 26,000 mobile phones, some with phony Nokia and Apple labels, copies of Louis Vuitton bags and Rolex watches, automotive components, DVDs and clothing. It said authorities shut down 292 websites selling counterfeit and fake goods. Also Sunday, the official Xinhua News Agency said 23 people accused of producing fake medicine were detained in the central city of Jingzhou in Hubei province. It said they made more than 100 million capsules filled with sawdust and wheat flour and sold under the brand names of 201 different types of medication. Xinhua said the medicines were sold by mail and over the Internet but gave no details of whether anyone was injured or which brand names were counterfeited. Piracy is especially sensitive at a time when Washington and other Western governments are trying to create jobs by boosting exports. In 2009, the World Trade Organization upheld a U.S. complaint that Beijing was violating trade commitments by failing to root out the problem. Rampant copying also has hampered Beijing’s efforts to attract technology industries because businesspeople say companies are reluctant to do high-level research in China or bring in advanced designs for fear of theft.

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China Promises Sweeping Economic Change

March 7, 2011

BEIJING — China’s government is promising an economic overhaul that would raise the status of consumers and entrepreneurs but has given no sign how it will tackle its politically volatile reforms. Beijing wants to nurture self-sustaining growth driven by consumption and develop service and high-tech industries, Premier Wen Jiabao said in a weekend speech outlining goals for 2011. That will require reining in elite state industry and other changes that might trigger a backlash within the party – hurdles Wen avoided mentioning. “It looks great on the surface but it isn’t clear whether they have the political capital or will to push through those changes,” said Alistair Thornton, China analyst for IHS Global Insight. Changes outlined by Wen could drive the evolution of the world’s second-largest economy from low-cost factory into major consumer market. That might help to narrow a yawning wealth gap between China’s elite and its poor majority and ease tensions over its trade surplus by boosting consumer demand for imports. But to achieve its goals, Beijing has to cut subsidies and low-cost bank loans to state companies, real estate developers and other vested interests that have allies in the Communist Party and might fight back. Wen promised unspecified “interest rate reforms” – a suggestion Beijing might give entrepreneurs a more level playing field by allowing the market to set interest rates – but he gave no timeline. The government has announced similar changes in past years but done little toward carrying them out. The government also will have to clamp down on growth driven by investment, which might alienate local leaders whose development plans call for more spending on new factories and public works. The plan is in line with goals approved by communist leaders in a five-year development plan in October. It calls for shifting from the investment- and export-led growth of China’s three-decade-old boom to promote efficiency and household spending. Wen said Beijing will encourage consumer spending, including giving subsidies to the rural poor to buy home appliances. “We will focus on the establishment of a long-term mechanism to boost domestic demand,” Zhang Ping, the chairman of the Cabinet’s planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, told a news conference Sunday. “In the past five-year plan period, we focused on growth. In the next five-year plan period, we will focus on improving people’s livelihood,” Zhang said. Wen promised to promote technology industries from software and new energy vehicles to environmental protection. That could create higher-paid jobs but also might fuel strains with Washington and other governments that complain Beijing is hampering access to its markets in its efforts to promote Chinese technology companies. To narrow the wealth gap, Wen promised more social spending, a higher minimum wage and taxes on real estate. New social spending could be financed by requiring major state companies to hand over more of their profits to the government, a step a Cabinet official said last month Beijing plans to take. But that, combined with changes in access to credit and resources, could conflict with Beijing’s campaign to create “national champions” in a range of industries from banking to oil to airlines. Regulators who oversee China’s top companies say they are less competitive than their foreign counterparts, raising questions about how they will function without continued government support. A Chinese think tank, the Unirule Institute of Economics, said in a report this month that major state companies are so inefficient that if subsidies are factored out, their return on equity – a measure of profitability – was an annual loss of 6 percent from 2001 to 2008. “It’s a question of stopping that,” said Thornton. “A lot of it is economic – changes in interest rates, cheap land and so on. But a lot of it is political and tackling those vested interests.”

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Video: Beijing Property Boom Forces Migrant Workers Underground

February 18, 2011

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) — Rising rents in Beijing are forcing many of the city’s migrant workers into small dwellings underground. China’s inflation accelerated in January as prices excluding food rose the most in at least six years, bolstering the case for more interest-rate increases to tame overheating risks in the fastest-growing major economy. Bloomberg’s Margaret Conley reports. (Source: Bloomberg)

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3rd China International Insurance Summit 2011 To Be Held In March In Beijing

December 30, 2010

3rd China International Insurance Summit 2011 To Be Held In March In Beijing

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China Used Equipment And Remanufacturing Summit 2011 To Be Held In January In Beijing

December 29, 2010

China Used Equipment And Remanufacturing Summit 2011 To Be Held In January In Beijing

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2nd China International Medical Device Summit 2011 To Be Held In January in Beijing

December 29, 2010

2nd China International Medical Device Summit 2011 To Be Held In January in Beijing

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3rd China Off-Highway Vehicle Summit 2011 to be held in January in Beijing

December 29, 2010

3rd China Off-Highway Vehicle Summit 2011 to be held in January in Beijing

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China, EU Hold Dialogue on Economy Trade in Beijing

December 21, 2010

China, EU Hold Dialogue on Economy Trade in Beijing

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China Weekly: Beijing Shifts Focus to Tackle Inflationary Pressures

November 15, 2010

China Weekly: Beijing Shifts Focus to Tackle Inflationary Pressures

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AXT Announces an Expansion of Its Sales Presence in Asia With the Appointment of Dr. Liming Zhu as Vice President of Sales, Asia

November 8, 2010

FREMONT, CA–(Marketwire – November 8, 2010) – AXT, Inc. ( NASDAQ : AXTI ), a leading manufacturer of compound semiconductor substrates, today announced that it has appointed Liming Zhu, Ph.D. vice president of sales for the Asia region. Zhu previously served as AXT’s vice president of quality and quality systems for the company’s manufacturing facility in Beijing, China. This appointment represents an expansion of AXT’s direct, local sales presence in Asia, marking the increasing strategic importance of this geographic region.

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5 Things You Didn’t Know About Supermarkets

October 25, 2010

From Beijing to Brighton, billions of people now can’t imagine life without supermarkets. But what forces push us, as we push our carts?

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Second Wind partners with Beijing New Energy Technology Co.

October 13, 2010

Second Wind partners with Beijing New Energy Technology Co.

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Video: Hess Expects China to Maintain `Hard Position’ on Yuan: Video

September 16, 2010

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) — William Hess, managing director at China Analytics in Beijing and a former director of sovereign ratings for Asia at Standard & Poor’s, talks about U.S.-China trade. The Obama administration, facing growing complaints in Washington that it hasn’t persuaded China to increase the value of its currency, filed two trade cases against the world’s largest exporter of goods. Hess talks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Hess Expects China to Maintain `Hard Position’ on Yuan: Video

September 16, 2010

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) — William Hess, managing director at China Analytics in Beijing and a former director of sovereign ratings for Asia at Standard & Poor’s, talks about U.S.-China trade. The Obama administration, facing growing complaints in Washington that it hasn’t persuaded China to increase the value of its currency, filed two trade cases against the world’s largest exporter of goods. Hess talks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Hess Expects China to Maintain `Hard Position’ on Yuan: Video

September 16, 2010

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) — William Hess, managing director at China Analytics in Beijing and a former director of sovereign ratings for Asia at Standard & Poor’s, talks about U.S.-China trade. The Obama administration, facing growing complaints in Washington that it hasn’t persuaded China to increase the value of its currency, filed two trade cases against the world’s largest exporter of goods. Hess talks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Summers In China: Currency Pressure Rejected By Chinese

September 7, 2010

BEIJING — China rejected pressure over currency Tuesday amid a visit by two high-level U.S. envoys, saying Beijing will set the pace of exchange rate reforms. Currency has re-emerged as an irritant in U.S.-Chinese relations as American leaders face pressure to create jobs ahead of November elections. Lawmakers who want possible trade sanctions on China set aside complaints as the two governments worked together to end the global crisis but are renewing their demands. “Exchange rate reform can’t be pressed ahead under external pressure,” said Jiang Yu, a foreign ministry spokesman. The issue is expected to be on the agenda for talks between Chinese officials and the visiting director of the U.S. National Economic Council, Lawrence Summers, and Deputy National Security Adviser Thomas Donilon. Critics say Beijing keeps its yuan undervalued, giving its exporters an unfair price advantage and adding to its huge trade surplus. Beijing broke an 18-month-old link between the yuan and the dollar in June and said it would allow a more flexible exchange rate. But the currency has risen by only about 1 percent since then, which has fueled demands by some American lawmakers for China to act faster or face trade sanctions. Jiang said Beijing would press ahead with reforms and allow “dynamic management” of the exchange rate but gave no timetable. Also Tuesday, a Cabinet official told Summers and Donilon that Beijing wanted improved cooperation with Washington and less public criticism. “Quiet and in-depth dialogue is better than loud haranguing,” said State Councilor Dai Bingguo.

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Video: Li Says China’s Inflation Pressures to Be `Short-Lived’: Video

September 6, 2010

Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) — Li Wei, a Shanghai-based economist at Standard Chartered Plc, talks about the outlook for China’s economy and currency policy. China’s yuan strengthened the most in nearly three weeks as the dollar slumped and a U.S. government adviser visited Beijing for talks, fanning speculation the central bank will allow more gains. Li speaks with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Wendt Says Rio-Chalco Deal a `Win-Win’ for Both Parties: Video

July 29, 2010

July 30 (Bloomberg) — Gavin Wendt, a senior analyst with MineLife Co. Ltd., talks with Bloomberg’s Susan Li from Sydney about Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd.’s agreement to pay $1.35 billion for a stake in Rio Tinto Group’s Simandou iron ore project in Guinea. Chalco, as the Beijing-based company is known, will acquire a 44.65 percent stake by funding development over the next two to three years, the companies said in a joint statement. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Ken Miller: Coping with China’s Financial Power

July 6, 2010

Chinese executives think they are not wanted as investors in the United States and they may be right. Ever since the 2005 public relations campaign that successfully ended China National Oil Company’s attempt to buy Unocal, Chinese decision makers have concluded that the deck is stacked against them. U.S. citizens believe that China’s state-owned business are instruments of the State and hence the Communist Party. And they blame China for the loss of jobs here even given evidence to the contrary. It is true that China’s approach to economic development has turned that country into a lopsided giant, an export juggernaut with one huge financial arm. At the end of 2009, it held $2.4 trillion worth of foreign exchange, the largest amount of foreign exchange owned by any central bank in the world. Never before has China had this much financial might, and it is now experimenting with how best to use it in its relations with other states. Although China sometimes sounds ambitious, it is being prudent. For now, its financial foreign policy rests on two simple strategies: accumulating foreign currency reserves and sending money abroad–in the form of direct investment, aid, assistance, and loans–in order to secure the raw materials, new technologies, managerial know-how, and distribution networks that will bolster domestic growth and the Chinese Communist Party’s legitimacy. China’s use of its foreign reserves in the international currency markets is aimed at managing the value of the renminbi–a normal part of any country’s monetary policy. Beijing’s open-market activity, the buying and selling of billions of dollars of financial instruments, has put it in close contact with the other major players in the multitrillion-dollar foreign exchange market. And these daily financial flows have lowered interest rates while increasing the liquidity and stability of international financial markets. Having set the stage for economic growth through its financial policies, Beijing tries, in its direct dealings with other governments, to create jobs and secure the inputs it believes will stimulate domestic growth. But, in its bilateral foreign policy, Beijing prefers the somewhat blunt tools of direct investment, outright grants, and so-called concessional loans, loans with terms far more generous than those available on the market. The Chinese government began to encourage “foreign direct investment” (FDI) from Chinese businesses in 1999, but this “go out” policy got off to a very slow start. As the need for energy and raw materials to feed China’s booming economy grew however, the search for resources spread worldwide. Still, there is less Chinese FDI than one might expect, and very little of it is being invested here or in other developed economies. During 2009, Chinese companies invested only $48 billion overseas, around one percent of Chinese GDP. This is partly a result of various barriers to Chinese investment outside the mainland. In addition to popular resistance to acquisitions of U.S. firms by Chinese, language and cultural barriers are a consideration. Partly because of these dynamics, the Chinese government decided early on that it could not rely exclusively on state-owned enterprises and private-sector entrepreneurs to invest overseas. In 2007, it set up a sovereign wealth fund, the China Investment Corporation, now with a capitalization of over $300 billion. As China invests more and more savings abroad, it will likely project its financial power differently. Down the road, Beijing may become less intent on using aid, grants, and concessional loans abroad so directly in the service of China’s domestic economy. But this is not certain. No one knows, for instance, whether the Chinese government would allow capital to move in and out of the country without government involvement. Such liberalization would be a drastic change in China’s financial foreign policy. So far, China’s financial foreign policy has been good for other countries and less beneficial for China itself than first meets the eye. China is buying U.S. debt. It is helping make orderly markets. Its FDI is helping it learn about the outside world. As for Beijing’s aid and assistance to developing countries, the amounts involved are relatively small, and the Chinese government is generating a fair bit of resentment. Its mercantilist approach will not give the government any more real security over sources of supply than if it bought them at international prices on the open market, and in the fullness of time, as the Chinese government recognizes this, it is likely to shift its tack without external pressure. For now, China would be well advised to stick to closely-held company acquisitions and to straight lending. Policymakers in the United States should remember that China emerged as a financial power less than ten years ago. It’s too bad China announced only $5 billion of investments in the U.S. last year. With a better understanding of China’s domestic imperatives, Washington can encourage Chinese firms to invest here in ways that increase their involvement in the global economy while helping us grow our businesses and job opportunities. Ken Miller is CEO and President of the merchant banking firm Ken Miller Capital LLC, Director of the USA Pavilion at the 2010 Shanghai World Expo, and a member of the U.S. State Department’s Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy. A longer version of this article is published in the July/August issue of Foreign Affairs .

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Ian Fletcher: Much Needed Currency Reform Bill Is Only a Small First Step Towards Dealing with China

July 2, 2010

It’s nice to see the long-stewing Chinese currency manipulation pot bubbling a bit again, thanks to China’s latest blatantly disingenuous move to allow a token fluctuation or two of the yuan. And it’s great that Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s currency bill is inching towards the floor of the Senate. (The underlying idea, giving American industries formal trade remedies against currency manipulation by foreign governments, was actually thought up several years ago by Kevin Kearns, president of my organization, the U.S. Business & Industry Council.) Passing this bill would be a very useful and encouraging step. Currency manipulation and related trade chicanery have gone on long enough. It’s especially encouraging that the bill’s sponsors grasp — as the trade-clueless Obama administration doesn’t — that trying to change China’s behavior is a losing game. So this measure wisely dispenses with preaching reform to Beijing and simply authorizes the use of sanctions in particular cases to provide trade relief to victimized American industries. Preaching reform to China is a complete waste of time for a number of reasons. First, China is making such enormous profits off of what it’s doing that its government would have to consist of saints for them to change anything because of some idea of what’s “right” or good for the rest of the world economy. If Beijing cared about any of this, it would not be manipulating its exchange rate in the first place. Among other legal strictures, the Articles of Agreement of the IMF (Article IV, revised, which went into effect in 1978) prohibit members from manipulating their exchange rates. Second, with the U.S. having just survived one economic crisis and quite likely drifting paralyzed towards another, we’re not especially credible right now giving anyone else economic advice. If we’re so smart, and free trade is so good, then why are we the ones in crisis while some of our adversaries enjoying double-digit economic growth rates? That’s not a question most Americans want to face, but make no mistake, everybody’s asking it, behind closed doors, all around the world. Third, if the Chinese leadership knows any economic history–and they seem to–then they know that the policies China is pursuing today are, in essence if not in detail, precisely the policies the US itself pursued in the 19th century to wrest economic leadership from the then-dominant economic power, Great Britain. So from Beijing’s point of view, we necessarily look like a bunch of decadent hypocritical whiners. (This doesn’t make them right, but it certainly helps explain their lack of interest in our complaints.) The strange thing in all of this is that the US, which has no difficulty playing hardball when it comes to its military relations with the rest of the world, remains stuck in a dreamily idealistic Wilsonianism when it comes to international trade. In our government’s free-trade fantasy world, everything is going to be fine because the sheer truth of the free trade ideal will persuade everyone else in the world to embrace it. Any hardball we do engage in is confined to helpless Third World nations and is done only because they don’t know what a big favor we’re doing in imposing free trade on them. The fundamental premise here is that the whole world will embrace free trade, and fairly soon. But the reality is that the world is not embracing free trade. It is embracing a construct called FreeTradeTM, which amounts to 99 percent free trade on America’s part plus completely different policies elsewhere. Among these are: Mercantilism on the part of shrewd governments from Berlin to Taipei. Imitations of American-style free trade among those dumb enough to believe in it (like the UK) or bullied into it by the economic gunboat diplomacy of the IMF in the Third World. A charade called the WTO which enforces free trade on nations in category #2 and props open export markets for nations in category #1. Would the Stabenow currency-reform bill get us out of this trap, if it passed? As noted, it’s definitely a positive move, but it’s still just a start. Its key limitation is that its approach is gradualist and, above all, reactive, because it depends on victimized industries filing lawsuits under the trade laws. So it will ultimately need to be supplemented with a much more comprehensive strategy. What America really needs to do is impose an across-the-board tariff on Chinese goods sufficient to offset not only the effects of currency manipulation, but also all the other tricks Beijing has pulled in the past and will continue trying to pull in the future. What kind of tricks? Not only obvious policies like tariffs and quotas, but also local content laws, import licensing requirements, and subtler measures–some of them covert, hard to detect, or infinitely disputable–such as deliberately quirky national technical standards and discriminatory tax practices. Then there are policies that involve outright skullduggery, such as deliberate port delays, inflated customs valuations, selective enforcement of safety standards, and systematic demands for bribes. It follows that any American response to all this must be broad-based and agile enough to prevent these various forms of circumvention. Some Americans are still dreaming that a boom in American exports to China will save the day. The reality is that the dream of selling to the Chinese functions primarily as bait to lure in American companies–which are then forced by the government to hand over their key technological know-how as the price of entry. So the China market remains the mythical wonderland it has been since the 19th-century era of clipper ships and opium wars. Beijing didn’t invent any of this mischief, by the way. It is operating from the standard 400-year-old mercantilist playbook, albeit implemented with the exceptional cynicism of a Leninist one-party state running a capitalist economy. Similar tactics are used–in less aggressive, less disingenuous, and less illegal ways–by governments all around the world. The two regions where this is most clear are Germanic-Scandinavian Europe and “Confucian” Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore). Nevertheless, even most trade critics in Congress still shy away from the sweeping measures America needs to blunt this strategy. A large part of their reluctance to deal with the problems posed is due to special-interest pressures: many of the largest American companies are now so dependent on their overseas operations, and thus so vulnerable to pressures by foreign governments, that they have become outright Trojan horses with respect to American trade policy. As former congressman Duncan Hunter (R-CA), for years one of the outstanding critics of trade giveaways in Congress, once put it, “For practical purposes, many of the multinational corporations have become Chinese corporations.” Over time, this will probably change, as Beijing repeatedly disillusions those who hope for it to change. China right now is doing what the Soviet Union did over the decades after WWII, as its repeatedly obnoxious international behavior relentlessly chipped away at the not-inconsiderable sympathy it had once enjoyed. Eventually, one simply must assume, America will lose patience. One hopes that by then it is not too late to solve America’s trade problem without an economic debacle of some kind. Ian Fletcher is the author of the Free Trade Doesn’t Work: What Should Replace It and Why (USBIC, $24.95) An Adjunct Fellow at the San Francisco office of the U.S. Business and Industry Council , a Washington think tank founded in 1933, he was previously an economist in private practice, mostly serving hedge funds and private equity firms. He may be contacted at ian.fletcher@usbic.net.

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Ian Fletcher: Much Needed Currency Reform Bill Is Only a Small First Step Towards Dealing with China

July 2, 2010

It’s nice to see the long-stewing Chinese currency manipulation pot bubbling a bit again, thanks to China’s latest blatantly disingenuous move to allow a token fluctuation or two of the yuan. And it’s great that Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s currency bill is inching towards the floor of the Senate. (The underlying idea, giving American industries formal trade remedies against currency manipulation by foreign governments, was actually thought up several years ago by Kevin Kearns, president of my organization, the U.S. Business & Industry Council.) Passing this bill would be a very useful and encouraging step. Currency manipulation and related trade chicanery have gone on long enough. It’s especially encouraging that the bill’s sponsors grasp — as the trade-clueless Obama administration doesn’t — that trying to change China’s behavior is a losing game. So this measure wisely dispenses with preaching reform to Beijing and simply authorizes the use of sanctions in particular cases to provide trade relief to victimized American industries. Preaching reform to China is a complete waste of time for a number of reasons. First, China is making such enormous profits off of what it’s doing that its government would have to consist of saints for them to change anything because of some idea of what’s “right” or good for the rest of the world economy. If Beijing cared about any of this, it would not be manipulating its exchange rate in the first place. Among other legal strictures, the Articles of Agreement of the IMF (Article IV, revised, which went into effect in 1978) prohibit members from manipulating their exchange rates. Second, with the U.S. having just survived one economic crisis and quite likely drifting paralyzed towards another, we’re not especially credible right now giving anyone else economic advice. If we’re so smart, and free trade is so good, then why are we the ones in crisis while some of our adversaries enjoying double-digit economic growth rates? That’s not a question most Americans want to face, but make no mistake, everybody’s asking it, behind closed doors, all around the world. Third, if the Chinese leadership knows any economic history–and they seem to–then they know that the policies China is pursuing today are, in essence if not in detail, precisely the policies the US itself pursued in the 19th century to wrest economic leadership from the then-dominant economic power, Great Britain. So from Beijing’s point of view, we necessarily look like a bunch of decadent hypocritical whiners. (This doesn’t make them right, but it certainly helps explain their lack of interest in our complaints.) The strange thing in all of this is that the US, which has no difficulty playing hardball when it comes to its military relations with the rest of the world, remains stuck in a dreamily idealistic Wilsonianism when it comes to international trade. In our government’s free-trade fantasy world, everything is going to be fine because the sheer truth of the free trade ideal will persuade everyone else in the world to embrace it. Any hardball we do engage in is confined to helpless Third World nations and is done only because they don’t know what a big favor we’re doing in imposing free trade on them. The fundamental premise here is that the whole world will embrace free trade, and fairly soon. But the reality is that the world is not embracing free trade. It is embracing a construct called FreeTradeTM, which amounts to 99 percent free trade on America’s part plus completely different policies elsewhere. Among these are: Mercantilism on the part of shrewd governments from Berlin to Taipei. Imitations of American-style free trade among those dumb enough to believe in it (like the UK) or bullied into it by the economic gunboat diplomacy of the IMF in the Third World. A charade called the WTO which enforces free trade on nations in category #2 and props open export markets for nations in category #1. Would the Stabenow currency-reform bill get us out of this trap, if it passed? As noted, it’s definitely a positive move, but it’s still just a start. Its key limitation is that its approach is gradualist and, above all, reactive, because it depends on victimized industries filing lawsuits under the trade laws. So it will ultimately need to be supplemented with a much more comprehensive strategy. What America really needs to do is impose an across-the-board tariff on Chinese goods sufficient to offset not only the effects of currency manipulation, but also all the other tricks Beijing has pulled in the past and will continue trying to pull in the future. What kind of tricks? Not only obvious policies like tariffs and quotas, but also local content laws, import licensing requirements, and subtler measures–some of them covert, hard to detect, or infinitely disputable–such as deliberately quirky national technical standards and discriminatory tax practices. Then there are policies that involve outright skullduggery, such as deliberate port delays, inflated customs valuations, selective enforcement of safety standards, and systematic demands for bribes. It follows that any American response to all this must be broad-based and agile enough to prevent these various forms of circumvention. Some Americans are still dreaming that a boom in American exports to China will save the day. The reality is that the dream of selling to the Chinese functions primarily as bait to lure in American companies–which are then forced by the government to hand over their key technological know-how as the price of entry. So the China market remains the mythical wonderland it has been since the 19th-century era of clipper ships and opium wars. Beijing didn’t invent any of this mischief, by the way. It is operating from the standard 400-year-old mercantilist playbook, albeit implemented with the exceptional cynicism of a Leninist one-party state running a capitalist economy. Similar tactics are used–in less aggressive, less disingenuous, and less illegal ways–by governments all around the world. The two regions where this is most clear are Germanic-Scandinavian Europe and “Confucian” Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore). Nevertheless, even most trade critics in Congress still shy away from the sweeping measures America needs to blunt this strategy. A large part of their reluctance to deal with the problems posed is due to special-interest pressures: many of the largest American companies are now so dependent on their overseas operations, and thus so vulnerable to pressures by foreign governments, that they have become outright Trojan horses with respect to American trade policy. As former congressman Duncan Hunter (R-CA), for years one of the outstanding critics of trade giveaways in Congress, once put it, “For practical purposes, many of the multinational corporations have become Chinese corporations.” Over time, this will probably change, as Beijing repeatedly disillusions those who hope for it to change. China right now is doing what the Soviet Union did over the decades after WWII, as its repeatedly obnoxious international behavior relentlessly chipped away at the not-inconsiderable sympathy it had once enjoyed. Eventually, one simply must assume, America will lose patience. One hopes that by then it is not too late to solve America’s trade problem without an economic debacle of some kind. Ian Fletcher is the author of the Free Trade Doesn’t Work: What Should Replace It and Why (USBIC, $24.95) An Adjunct Fellow at the San Francisco office of the U.S. Business and Industry Council , a Washington think tank founded in 1933, he was previously an economist in private practice, mostly serving hedge funds and private equity firms. He may be contacted at ian.fletcher@usbic.net.

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FINANCE VIDEO: Behre Dolbear President Bernard Guarnera Speaks at Beijing Mines and Money 2010

June 21, 2010

FINANCE VIDEO: Behre Dolbear President Bernard Guarnera Speaks at Beijing Mines and Money 2010

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EQUIPMENT VIDEO: Innov-X Systems Executive Marcus Lake Explains the XRF Technologies at Beijing Mines and Money 2010

June 16, 2010

EQUIPMENT VIDEO: Innov-X Systems Executive Marcus Lake Explains the XRF Technologies at Beijing Mines and Money 2010

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FINANCE VIDEO: Bandanna Energy (ASX:BND) MD Ray Shaw Speaks at Beijing Mines and Money 2010

June 16, 2010

FINANCE VIDEO: Bandanna Energy (ASX:BND) MD Ray Shaw Speaks at Beijing Mines and Money 2010

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China’s Manufacturing Expanded at Slower Pace in May as Growth Moderates

May 31, 2010

By Bloomberg News June 1 (Bloomberg) — Chinese manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in May, adding to signs that growth may moderate in the world’s third-biggest economy. The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 53.9 from 55.7 in April, seasonally adjusted, the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in an e-mailed statement today. That was less than the median 54.5 estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 18 economists. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion. A government crackdown on property speculation is cooling the economy by damping sales and construction, while Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis could exacerbate a slowdown by cutting export demand. China may delay raising benchmark interest rates or letting the yuan appreciate against the dollar even after the economy grew 11.9 percent in the first quarter. The economic “slowdown may be exacerbated by euro-area weakness and recent measures from Beijing to rein in the property market,” said Brian Jackson , a Hong Kong-based strategist at Royal Bank of Canada. “The fall in the headline PMI shown in the May surveys might be an early sign of a slowdown, but China still faces overheating risks in many parts of the economy.” Asian stocks fell, extending the MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s biggest monthly drop since October 2008. China’s Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.16 percent to 2587.924 at 10:49 a.m. local time. Premier Wen Jiabao said yesterday in Tokyo that the world needs to guard against the possibility of a second economic slump. China will continue its proactive fiscal policy to consolidate its recovery, Finance Minister Xie Xuren said May 28. Growth Peak Comparable indicators in manufacturing around the world in May are forecast to indicate global output growth has peaked. Australia manufacturing growth slowed in May and economists say reports due today in the U.S. will show manufacturing cooled while activity in Europe was unchanged. The central bank has kept the key one-year lending rate at 5.31 percent and the deposit rate at 2.25 percent since December 2008 after cuts to counter the financial crisis. The yuan is trading at about 6.83 per dollar under a policy in place since July 2008 to aid exporters. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 9.7 percent in May, the biggest monthly decline since August, on concern the European debt crisis is worsening and the government will step up property measures. The benchmark has declined more than 20 percent this year. In contrast with investors’ pessimism, Capital Economics Ltd. said this week that the Chinese economy is “gliding to a soft landing.” Relatively Fast “The economy may continue to maintain relatively fast growth, but the growth rate may slow,” Zhang Liqun , a researcher at the State Council’s Development and Research Center, said in the statement from the logistics federation. “The May PMI may be an indication that the economic rebound is stabilizing.” An output index fell to 58.2 from 59.1 in April, today’s report showed. The new-order index slid to 54.8 from 59.3 and an export-order index dropped to 53.8 from 54.5. The input-price index decreased to 58.9 from 72.6. While year-on-year economic indicators for May are likely to show slower growth, “all this is telling us is that it is now a year since China’s stimulus started to be felt,” said Mark Williams , a London-based economist for the firm. Economic momentum “remains strong.” Williams also said that the official PMI normally falls in May, “a sign that the seasonal adjustment applied is not particularly effective.” Nomura Holdings Inc. and Bank of America-Merrill Lynch expressed similar views ahead of today’s data. Textiles, Automobiles The manufacturing index, released by the logistics federation and the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics, covers more than 730 companies in 20 industries, including energy, metallurgy, textiles, automobiles and electronics. A separate China manufacturing index, released by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics, fell to 52.7 in May, the lowest since June 2009. HSBC’s survey, covering more than 400 manufacturing companies, is weighted more toward smaller, privately owned business than the government’s PMI, according to the bank. “The overheating risk is likely to ease as tightening measures filter through,” Qu Hongbin , chief China economist at HSBC, said in today’s release. “We see robust economic growth without double-dip risks not least because of massive existing infrastructure investment and resilient private consumption.” Trimming Stimulus Chinese policy makers are trimming stimulus this year after the $1.4 trillion lending binge that revived growth in 2009. Officials are targeting a 22 reduction in new loans and have sold bills and raised banks’ reserve requirements to suck money out of the financial system. Restraining inflation expectations and keeping housing affordable are two of the government’s key goals after urban property prices jumped a record 12.8 percent in April from a year earlier. Wuhan Iron & Steel Group , the nation’s third- biggest steelmaker, said May 26 that demand for steel is declining, partly because of curbs on property loans. — Sophie Leung , Li Yanping . Editors: Lily Nonomiya , Cherian Thomas To contact the reporter on this story: Sophie Leung in Hong Kong at sleung59@bloomberg.net Yanping Li in Beijing at yli16@bloomberg.net

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China’s Manufacturing Expands at Slower Pace as Economic Growth Moderates

May 31, 2010

By Bloomberg News June 1 (Bloomberg) — Chinese manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in May, adding to signs that growth may moderate in the world’s third-biggest economy. The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 53.9 from 55.7 in April, seasonally adjusted, the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in an e-mailed statement today. That was less than the median 54.5 estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 18 economists. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion. A government crackdown on property speculation is cooling the economy by damping sales and construction, while Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis could exacerbate a slowdown by cutting export demand. China may delay raising benchmark interest rates or letting the yuan appreciate against the dollar even after the economy grew 11.9 percent in the first quarter. The economic “slowdown may be exacerbated by euro-area weakness and recent measures from Beijing to rein in the property market,” said Brian Jackson , a Hong Kong-based strategist at Royal Bank of Canada. “The fall in the headline PMI shown in the May surveys might be an early sign of a slowdown, but China still faces overheating risks in many parts of the economy.” Asian stocks fell, extending the MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s biggest monthly drop since October 2008. China’s Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.16 percent to 2587.924 at 10:49 a.m. local time. Premier Wen Jiabao said yesterday in Tokyo that the world needs to guard against the possibility of a second economic slump. China will continue its proactive fiscal policy to consolidate its recovery, Finance Minister Xie Xuren said May 28. Growth Peak Comparable indicators in manufacturing around the world in May are forecast to indicate global output growth has peaked. Australia manufacturing growth slowed in May and economists say reports due today in the U.S. will show manufacturing cooled while activity in Europe was unchanged. The central bank has kept the key one-year lending rate at 5.31 percent and the deposit rate at 2.25 percent since December 2008 after cuts to counter the financial crisis. The yuan is trading at about 6.83 per dollar under a policy in place since July 2008 to aid exporters. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 9.7 percent in May, the biggest monthly decline since August, on concern the European debt crisis is worsening and the government will step up property measures. The benchmark has declined more than 20 percent this year. In contrast with investors’ pessimism, Capital Economics Ltd. said this week that the Chinese economy is “gliding to a soft landing.” Relatively Fast “The economy may continue to maintain relatively fast growth, but the growth rate may slow,” Zhang Liqun , a researcher at the State Council’s Development and Research Center, said in the statement from the logistics federation. “The May PMI may be an indication that the economic rebound is stabilizing.” An output index fell to 58.2 from 59.1 in April, today’s report showed. The new-order index slid to 54.8 from 59.3 and an export-order index dropped to 53.8 from 54.5. The input-price index decreased to 58.9 from 72.6. While year-on-year economic indicators for May are likely to show slower growth, “all this is telling us is that it is now a year since China’s stimulus started to be felt,” said Mark Williams , a London-based economist for the firm. Economic momentum “remains strong.” Williams also said that the official PMI normally falls in May, “a sign that the seasonal adjustment applied is not particularly effective.” Nomura Holdings Inc. and Bank of America-Merrill Lynch expressed similar views ahead of today’s data. Textiles, Automobiles The manufacturing index, released by the logistics federation and the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics, covers more than 730 companies in 20 industries, including energy, metallurgy, textiles, automobiles and electronics. A separate China manufacturing index, released by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics, fell to 52.7 in May, the lowest since June 2009. HSBC’s survey, covering more than 400 manufacturing companies, is weighted more toward smaller, privately owned business than the government’s PMI, according to the bank. “The overheating risk is likely to ease as tightening measures filter through,” Qu Hongbin , chief China economist at HSBC, said in today’s release. “We see robust economic growth without double-dip risks not least because of massive existing infrastructure investment and resilient private consumption.” Trimming Stimulus Chinese policy makers are trimming stimulus this year after the $1.4 trillion lending binge that revived growth in 2009. Officials are targeting a 22 reduction in new loans and have sold bills and raised banks’ reserve requirements to suck money out of the financial system. Restraining inflation expectations and keeping housing affordable are two of the government’s key goals after urban property prices jumped a record 12.8 percent in April from a year earlier. Wuhan Iron & Steel Group , the nation’s third- biggest steelmaker, said May 26 that demand for steel is declining, partly because of curbs on property loans. — Sophie Leung , Li Yanping . Editors: Lily Nonomiya , Cherian Thomas To contact the reporter on this story: Sophie Leung in Hong Kong at sleung59@bloomberg.net Yanping Li in Beijing at yli16@bloomberg.net

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China IPOs Post World’s Biggest Gains of 2010 as Stocks Suffer Bear Market

May 27, 2010

By Michael Tsang and Inyoung Hwang May 28 (Bloomberg) — China has the world’s worst performing equity market this year and the best returns on initial public offerings. While the Shanghai Composite Index has slid 19 percent for the steepest drop among the 10 largest stock markets, IPOs are beating the country’s benchmark equity indexes by 33 percentage points on average in their first month of trading, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Chinese individuals restricted from international investments have helped snap up $25 billion in IPOs this year, three times more than were sold in the U.S., as inflation erodes savings and the government clamps down on property speculation. The rally by newly listed companies has made their shares almost twice as expensive relative to profits as the broader stock market , a sign to firms from KBC-Goldstate Fund Management to hedge fund Platinum Partners that a bubble may be forming. “Most of the China IPOs are overvalued,” said Larry Wan , Shanghai-based deputy chief investment officer at KBC-Goldstate, which oversees about $583 million. “It’s difficult to believe they are going to be able to deliver the sort of exponential growth that the valuations imply.” The fastest expansion among the 20 biggest economies has helped spur the surge in China’s IPO market. The country’s gross domestic product grew 11.9 percent in the first quarter, the most in almost three years and about four times the U.S. GDP. World’s Biggest IPO The amount raised from Chinese IPOs may double after the sale by Beijing-based Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. The nation’s third-largest lender by assets will seek at least $30 billion in Shanghai and Hong Kong, according to the Beijing Times. That would be the world’s biggest initial offering, exceeding the $22 billion deal by Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. of Beijing in 2006. Chinese IPOs have advanced 32 percent on average in their first month of trading, while the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen composite declined, Bloomberg data show. The rally by newly listed companies has been primarily fueled by individual investors, even as concern that Europe’s debt crisis will hamper the global economic rebound spurred a selloff in equities around the world, according to Andy Xie , an independent economist in Shanghai. “Chinese investors have this traditional belief that you can’t lose money buying new stocks,” said Xie, formerly Morgan Stanley’s chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region. “This is not sustainable. China’s economy has big bubbles, so does the IPO market. Investors can’t be fooled forever.” Inflation, Property Market Local investors who have a total of 146 million brokerage accounts are seeing their investment choices outside of equities limited by inflation that’s eroding China’s $7.2 trillion of savings and government curbs on mortgage loans. Consumer prices climbed 2.8 percent last month, surpassing the one-year savings rate of 2.25 percent. The pace of inflation is forecast to rise 3.4 percent this year, the median estimate of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg shows. Citigroup Inc. of New York and Paris-based BNP Paribas SA project that home prices will drop 20 percent this year, after Chinese policy makers increased bank reserve requirements three times in the past three months to slow lending. Property prices surged the most on record in April, according to the National Development and Reform Commission. “Chinese investors can’t allocate their money off-shore,” said Lei Wang , who helps oversee $20.2 billion at the Santa Fe, New Mexico-based Thornburg International Value Fund . “Most of the money is locked up at the home market, so for some of those investors, IPOs are a good short-term profitable trade.” Relative Value Gains by Chinese IPOs have pushed valuations to an average 46 times estimated profits, Bloomberg data show. That’s almost three times as much as companies traded in Shanghai , valued at 16 times earnings, and about double the ratio for Shenzhen-listed stocks. Chongqing Water Group Co. is valued at 35.1 times its estimated profit after a 59 percent advance in its first month of trading. That’s more than double the average price-earnings ratio for companies in the Shanghai gauge, which fell 5.2 percent over the same period. The $511 million IPO in March gave the supplier of water to the southwestern municipality of Chongqing a market capitalization of $4.9 billion. ‘Rocket Shots’ Investors in East Money Information Co. , the Shanghai-based provider of online financial information, paid 56 times the company’s estimated profits in its IPO, or 117 percent more than the average company in the Shenzhen measure of equities, Bloomberg data show. The company gained 93 percent in its first month of trading, helping to push its valuation to 92 times earnings, or more than three times the broader market. The Shenzhen index rose 4.9 percent in the same span. “A lot of the ones trading were really rocket shots,” said Uri Landesman , president of New York-based hedge fund Platinum Partners, which oversees more than $500 million. “It definitely does look like there could be bubble-like tendencies in the Chinese IPO market.” To contact the reporters on this story: Michael Tsang in New York at mtsang1@bloomberg.net ; Inyoung Hwang in New York at ihwang7@bloomberg.net .

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Geithner To China: We’ve Learned From The Financial Crisis – And We’re Fixing The Deficit

May 25, 2010

BEIJING — U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Washington is getting its deficits under control and called on China to keep technology markets open in a visit Tuesday to a school for future Communist Party leaders. On the second day of a high-level dialogue, Geithner told students at the Central Party School the United States has learned from the crisis and is improving regulation. He said Washington was moving forcefully to cut its swollen budget deficit – a key worry for Beijing, the biggest foreign investor in U.S. government debt. The Strategic and Economic Dialogue brought dozens of U.S. officials led by Geithner and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton to Beijing. Begun last year in Washington, the dialogue is aimed at easing trade strains and promoting cooperation on issues from financial markets to clean energy research. “The basic strategy is to make sure that our economy is growing, then institute long-term reforms and restore the basic discipline to the budget process that we abandoned in the previous decade,” Geithner said. The party school is a mid-career training center for rising officials from provincial governments. Geithner’s visit was billed as a chance for Washington to reach beyond Beijing and address a future generation of communist leaders. Geithner called on China to keep technology markets open, saying competition would promote innovation. Washington and business groups are alarmed by Beijing’s “indigenous innovation” policy, meant to promote Chinese technology by favoring domestically developed products in government procurement and other areas. Foreign companies say the policy is the biggest threat to their access to Chinese markets and Geithner said he would raise the issue at the dialogue. “You want the marketplace to work with you and not against the objective of promoting innovation,” the secretary said. The talks have highlighted the communist government’s growing assertiveness in promoting its own interests, prompted by China’s rising status as the world’s third-largest economy and its quick rebound from the global downturn. On Monday, President Hu Jintao opened the dialogue with a pledge of more reforms to China’s currency controls, a key irritant in ties with Washington. But he gave no timetable and said Beijing will set the pace of change. Washington and other trading partners complain China’s yuan is undervalued, giving its exporters an unfair advantage and swelling its multibillion-dollar trade surplus. The yuan has been frozen against the dollar since late 2008 to help Chinese exporters compete amid weak global demand. The talks were overshadowed by South Korea’s announcement that it was cutting off trade with North Korea and would take its neighbor to the U.N. Security Council over a torpedo attack that killed 46 sailors. Beijing’s envoys pressed a range of Chinese interests, calling for an end to U.S. curbs on “dual use” high-tech exports with possible military applications. They urged Washington to simplify foreign investment rules that they complained hurt Chinese companies.

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Video: Lavin Discusses China-U.S. Talks, China’s Yuan Policy: Video

May 23, 2010

May 24 (Bloomberg) — Frank Lavin, a former U.S. undersecretary for commerce and former ambassador to Singapore, talks with Bloomberg’s Susan Li about prospects for the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue that starts today in Beijing, and China’s yuan policy. President Hu Jintao said that China will move gradually and independently in making changes to the nation’s exchange-rate mechanism. (This is an excerpt of the full interview. Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Ha Says China Must `Wait and See’ on Yuan, Inflation: Video

May 23, 2010

May 24 (Bloomberg) — Ha Jiming, an economist at China International Capital Corp., talks with Bloomberg’s Stephen Engle about the outlook for China’s economy and currency policy. Speaking in Beijing, Ha also discusses the second annual U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue that starts today in Beijing. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Ha Says China Must `Wait and See’ on Yuan, Inflation: Video

May 23, 2010

May 24 (Bloomberg) — Ha Jiming, an economist at China International Capital Corp., talks with Bloomberg’s Stephen Engle about the outlook for China’s economy and currency policy. Speaking in Beijing, Ha also discusses the second annual U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue that starts today in Beijing. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Ha Says China Must `Wait and See’ on Yuan, Inflation: Video

May 23, 2010

May 24 (Bloomberg) — Ha Jiming, an economist at China International Capital Corp., talks with Bloomberg’s Stephen Engle about the outlook for China’s economy and currency policy. Speaking in Beijing, Ha also discusses the second annual U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue that starts today in Beijing. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Clinton Calls for `Level Playing Field’ for U.S. Companies in China Trade

May 23, 2010

By Nicole Gaouette May 23 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged China to work more cooperatively with American companies eager for a larger share of the Chinese market. “For trade to work in any economy, it needs to be a level playing field where domestic and international companies can compete freely,” she said today at Shanghai’s Pudong Airport after meeting with 15 U.S. aviation executives to discuss the challenges they face operating in China. U.S. companies “want to sell goods made by American workers to Chinese consumers with rising income and increasing demand.” The Obama administration sees China as central to its goal of doubling exports in five years and creating 2 million U.S. jobs. Clinton and officials including Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner will address trade and investment barriers that could impede that goal at the second annual U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue that starts tomorrow in Beijing. Clinton said China should increase its transparency in rule making and copyright protection laws, calling them “vitally important in the 21st century economy.” China is America’s second-biggest trading partner after Canada, and the largest foreign investor in U.S. government debt. While there is skepticism in some quarters about how realistic the administration’s export goal is, U.S. officials are confident they can meet it, Commerce Department Undersecretary Francisco Sanchez said yesterday in Shanghai. “We can do that,” he said. Overshadowed Trade and commercial diplomacy were to be the main themes of Clinton’s trip before they were overshadowed by a report finding North Korea responsible for the sinking of a South Korean naval vessel. At the 2010 World Expo in Shanghai, the U.S. Pavilion highlighted American companies including Pepsi Co. and Chevron Corp. , whose donations helped build the 6,000-square meter space. U.S. officials during the Beijing talks will focus on a new Chinese contracting program that could threaten Obama’s export goal. China last year announced an “indigenous innovation” system that proposed to buy only domestically-made software and equipment. “In the coming days, officials at the highest level in our administration will discuss issues of economic balance and competition with our Chinese counterparts,” Clinton said. The new rules could significantly disadvantage foreign companies interested in bidding for government procurement contracts worth an estimated $85 billion a year, Commerce Secretary Gary Locke said in a speech in Beijing on May 21. “Indigenous innovation limits foreign direct investment and imports from abroad that can deliver new products and services to the Chinese people and enhance innovation within Chinese partner companies,” Locke said. Locke brought with him 24 U.S. companies seeking to expand their presence in China, all involved in clean energy technologies or the storage and transmission of electricity. The U.S. and China are the world’s two largest energy consumers and greenhouse gas emitters, Clinton noted in an op-ed in the Beijing-based newspaper Global Times. She said discussions at the Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Beijing would focus “on ways that our two countries can expand our cooperation on energy and climate change.” To contact the reporter on this story: Nicole Gaouette in Shanghai at ngaouette@bloomberg.net .

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Video: Green Says China May Delay Yuan Move on Europe Anxiety: Video

May 9, 2010

May 10 (Bloomberg) — Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai, talks with Bloomberg’s Susan Li from Beijing about China’s economy and yuan policy. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Sinopec Profit Jumps 39.9% as Resurgent Chinese Economy Boosts Fuel Demand

April 28, 2010

By Bloomberg News April 28 (Bloomberg) — China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. , Asia’s biggest oil refiner, reported a 39.9 percent jump in first-quarter profit, matching estimates, as a resurgent economy boosted fuel demand. Net income climbed to 15.79 billion yuan ($2.3 billion), or 0.179 yuan a share, from 11.28 billion yuan, or 0.129 yuan, a year earlier, the Beijing-based company known as Sinopec said in a statement to the Shanghai stock exchange today. That’s in line with the 15.8 billion-yuan median estimate of six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. China’s economy grew at the fastest pace in almost three years in the first quarter, spurring factory demand for raw materials, oil and petrochemicals. Sinopec, relying on refining and fuel distribution for most of its revenue, processed 20 percent more crude into oil products during the period after the government raised fuel prices five times last year. “The next three months may be even better as the economy continues to expand,” said Yin Xiaodong , an oil analyst with Citic Securities Co. “The rebound in demand and prices helped the company in the first quarter.” China, the world’s second-biggest energy user, may process a record volume of crude oil in April, bolstered by an economic recovery, an increase in pump prices, and fuel stockpiling before the Shanghai World Expo in May, the government-backed China Petroleum & Chemical Industry Association said on April 21. Sinopec has advanced 12 percent in Hong Kong trading in the past year compared with the 44 percent increase in the benchmark Hang Seng Index. The shares fell 2.3 percent to HK$6.27 today, before the earnings announcement. — Wang Ying in Beijing and John Duce in Hong Kong. Editors: Ryan Woo , Ang Bee Lin . To contact the reporter on this story: Ying Wang in Beijing at ywang30@bloomberg.net

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American Air Delays First Chicago-Beijing Flight on Lack of `Viable’ Slots

April 26, 2010

By Mary Schlangenstein April 26 (Bloomberg) — American Airlines said it delayed the start of its daily Chicago-to-Beijing nonstop service until May 4 from today because of a dispute over takeoff and landing slots in the Chinese city. Customers are being rebooked on other flights and offered a full refund or a chance to fly at a later date, the Fort Worth, Texas-based unit of AMR Corp. said in a statement. American said it canceled the flights after Chinese authorities gave it slots for a 2:20 a.m. Beijing arrival and a 4:40 a.m. departure. “That just doesn’t work, because you couldn’t connect passengers to other flights in a timely fashion,” Mary Frances Fagan , a spokeswoman for American, said in an interview. “They’d be hanging around and waiting for hours on both ends. It’s not commercially viable based on what other competitors are operating. We’d be out of sync with others.” American said it applied for the slots at Beijing Capital International Airport in October 2009 and has been negotiating for new times since then. The airline held off canceling today’s flight in expectation it would be able to negotiate different times, Fagan said. The Chinese Embassy in Washington didn’t immediately respond to a call and e-mail seeking a comment. Today’s flight had been set to depart Chicago at 11:25 a.m. and arrive in Beijing at 1:55 p.m. the next day. The return flight would have departed from Beijing at 4:50 p.m. local time and arrived in the U.S. city at 4:40 p.m. Chicago time. The airline said it’s “hopeful” the issue will be resolved in time for the May 4 flight from Chicago. The initial service from Beijing was reset to May 5. The carrier said the new service “had been approved by the governments of both the United States and China.” AMR rose 6 cents to $7.84 at 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading . The shares have gained 1.4 percent this year. To contact the reporter on this story: Mary Schlangenstein in Dallas at maryc.s@bloomberg.net

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Toyota, VW, Nissan `Unsustainable’ Growth in China Risks Auto Overcapacity

April 26, 2010

By Bloomberg News April 26 (Bloomberg) — Toyota Motor Corp. , Volkswagen AG and Nissan Motor Co. are raising production capacity and sales forecasts in China, betting vehicle demand will continue to grow even if the government scraps car-buying incentives. Volkswagen, the biggest foreign carmaker in China , will invest 4.4 billion euros ($5.9 billion) in plants and new models by 2012, while Nissan aims to boost capacity in the nation almost 70 percent, the companies said April 23 at the Beijing Auto Show. Toyota and Hyundai Motor Co. are also building new factories in China, the world’s largest vehicle market. The automakers are competing for market share as Volkswagen estimates the growing wealth of China’s 1.37 billion people may raise the nation’s auto demand as much as 20 percent this year. Nissan predicts growth may slow next year as China has signaled it may end a tax break for small cars, and industry consultants JD Power & Associates and IHS Global Insight say carmakers risk building too many plants. “China’s motorization is reaching the masses,” said Takanobu Ito , Chief Executive Officer of Honda Motor Co., Japan’s second-largest carmaker. “Even after the tax break ends, demand shouldn’t drop very much.” China’s vehicle sales growth this year will exceed Honda’s original estimate of 10 percent, Ito said at the auto show. Xu Changming, a research director at China’s State Information Center, said last week demand may rise about 17 percent to 16 million vehicles, down from 46 percent last year. Tax Break The government is likely to raise consumption tax to 10 percent next year for cars with engines no larger than 1.6 liters, after cutting the rate to 5 percent in 2009 and raising it to 7.5 percent this year, Xu said. Last year’s reduction, which helped Chinese auto demand surge past the U.S. for the first time, resulted in “unsustainable” growth, he said. Even if the tax break is phased out, “there is a fear that amid all of this investment and stellar growth, the vehicle market could start to overheat,” Paul Newton , a London-based auto analyst at IHS Global Insight, wrote in a research note last week. “The carmakers vying for market share in China may not want to admit it, but this risk is becoming a very real concern.” GM, Toyota General Motors Co., the largest automaker in China, plans to increase sales in the nation to 3 million vehicles by 2015 from an estimated 2 million this year. The company and its local partners sold 1.83 million units in China last year. “Every time the government changes their policy, it will have some impact,” Kevin Wale , president of Detroit-based GM’s China business, said at the auto show. “But the underlying demand is increasing at a very fast rate.” At the moment, “we don’t have enough cars and we can’t build enough cars,” he said. Government policy changes are too unpredictable to be reflected in planning, Toyota’s Executive Vice President Takeshi Uchiyamada said at the show. “The speed of changes to government policies is faster than our development of new engines and new cars,” Uchiyamada said. The company, based in Toyota City, Japan, is basing its strategy on “significantly high” demand for small-engine compact cars, he said. Ghosn’s Expansion Toyota’s 2010 sales in China may exceed an 800,000-unit target, said Masahiro Kato , president of the company’s local unit. A new Toyota plant in Changchun, Jilin province, will start production in late 2011 or early 2012 and have a yearly production capacity of 100,000 vehicles, he said. The new plant will likely build Corolla vehicles and the automaker may also introduce a new low-cost car in China, Kato said. Toyota rose 3.4 percent to close at 3,690 yen in Tokyo trading today, gaining the most in seven weeks after Nikkei English News reported on April 24 that the company may post a full-year operating profit. Nissan, Japan’s third-largest carmaker , aims to raise output capacity in China to 900,000 vehicles a year by 2012 from 535,000 now, Chief Executive Officer Carlos Ghosn said at the show. The company is planning further increases even as Ghosn said industrywide sales growth in the nation may slow to between 10 percent and 15 percent next year. “Nissan is going the right way,” said Takeshi Miyao , an analyst at auto consulting company Carnorama in Tokyo. “It’s important for each automaker to gain share now. Later is too late.” Volkswagen, BMW The Yokohama-based automaker, which will begin selling its Leaf electric car in China next year, aims to boost sales in the nation 12 percent this year to 850,000 vehicles. Winfried Vahland , head of Wolfsburg, Germany-based Volkswagen’s China operations, estimates the Chinese auto market may grow between 15 percent and 20 percent this year, compared with the company’s previous estimate of 10 percent to 15 percent. “We’re a bit more optimistic now” than at the beginning of the year, Vahland said. The company, which plans to add production capacity at its Nanjing and Chengdu plants in China, aims to match or exceed market growth this year, Vahland said. It will reach a sales rate of 2 million vehicles a year in the nation “far earlier” than its 2018 goal, he said. Norbert Reithofer , Chief Executive Officer of Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, said an end to tax breaks for small cars won’t affect local growth plans for the Munich-based company, the world’s biggest luxury-vehicle maker. “We will expand very dynamically in China even if the government takes that action,” Reithofer said. Capacity expansion “will always” lag behind sales growth, he said. Hyundai Motor BMW intends to deliver 120,000 BMW, Mini, and Rolls-Royce vehicles in China in 2010, a 33 percent increase from last year and 20 percent more than a previous projection, he said at the Beijing auto show. The company and its rival Daimler AG, which aims to raise local sales by around 40 percent to at least 100,000 vehicles this year, are rolling out sedans developed exclusively for Chinese buyers. Hyundai Motor Co. , South Korea’s largest carmaker, is adding a third plant in China that will increase its local capacity by 50 percent to 900,000 vehicles a year by 2012. The foreign automakers’ expansion plans are matched by their local counterparts. Beijing Automotive Industry Holding Co., the carmaker that bought technology from Saab Automobile, is building three passenger-vehicle plants, two commercial- vehicle factories and one engine factory, adding 1.3 million units of production capacity to ease a shortage, President Wang Dazong said in an April 22 interview in Beijing. Geely Beijing Auto expects to boost sales 21 percent this year to 1.5 million vehicles, Wang said. The company’s deliveries surged 61 percent to 1.24 million last year. Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. , which bought Sweden’s Volvo Cars last month, aims to build a Volvo factory in China, according to the company. Even if the tax break is phased out, “there is a fear that amid all of this investment and stellar growth, the vehicle market could start to overheat,” Paul Newton , a London-based auto analyst at IHS Global Insight, wrote in a research note last week. “The carmakers vying for market share in China may not want to admit it, but this risk is becoming a very real concern.” GM, Toyota Fears that automakers’ investments would lead to too much production capacity in China have been proven wrong before. Nissan’s Ghosn and Volkswagen both said in 2003 that overcapacity in the nation was a concern. At the time, Honda predicted China’s auto sales might exceed 10 million in 2010. Still, excess inventories may force carmakers to offer incentives to buyers as early as this year, and the companies may suffer from overcapacity within five years, according to JD Power & Associates. With the surge in factory investment, JD Power estimates local plants may produce at 66 percent of capacity by 2015. An 80 percent level is traditionally required to cover fixed costs, according to the company. Carmakers will offer incentives, eroding their profit, as vehicle sales growth in the nation may slow this year to about 12 percent, Finbarr O’Neill , president of JD Power, said in an April 20 interview in Beijing. Industrywide sales may total 14.5 million vehicles this year, he said. “We see a pile-up of inventory at dealerships and actually a decline in transaction prices,” he said. “When you have too much inventory on the ground, you have to put cash in the trunk.” — Makiko Kitamura , Tian Ying , Stephanie Wong , Andreas Cremer , Stephen Engle in Beijing with assistance from Yuki Hagiwara and Takako Iwatani in Tokyo. Editors: Ian Rowley , Terje Langeland To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Tian Ying in Beijing at +86-10-6649-7571 or ytian@bloomberg.net ; Makiko Kitamura in Beijing via +81-3-3201-8482 or mkitamura1@bloomberg.net

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Video: Wale Expects GM’s China Unit to Surpass 2 Million Sales: Video

April 25, 2010

April 26 (Bloomberg) — Kevin Wale, president of General Motors Co.’s China business, talked with Bloomberg’s Stephen Engle at the Beijing Auto Show on April 23 about the outlook for vehicle sales. GM, the largest automaker in China, plans to increase sales in the nation to 3 million vehicles by 2015 from an estimated 2 million this year. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Ghosn Says Nissan Plans to Raise China Factory Capacity: Video

April 25, 2010

April 26 (Bloomberg) — Nissan Motor Co. Chief Executive Officer Carlos Ghosn talked with Bloomberg’s Stephen Engle on April 23 at the Beijing Auto Show about the company’s business strategy for China and electric vehicles. Nissan, Japan’s third-biggest carmaker, will raise production capacity by almost 70 percent in China even as it expects sales growth to slow. Ghosn said the automaker aims to have the capacity to make to 900,000 vehicles a year in China by 2012 and plans further increases after that. (Source: Bloomberg)

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China Banks to Reassess Risk as Regulator Aims to Stop Credit Boom Souring

April 11, 2010

By Bloomberg News April 12 (Bloomberg) — China’s banking regulator told lenders to reassess their risk exposures and submit reports by the end of June as officials try to prevent the nation’s credit boom from leading to more bad loans. Inspectors will visit banks in the third quarter to check on the reports, Liu Mingkang , chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said yesterday at the Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan province. The regulator will discuss any discrepancies found, he said. “By the end of the third quarter we will downgrade assets if needed and increase provisions,” Liu said, without elaborating. China has tightened regulations on concern a record $1.4 trillion of lending last year is fueling asset bubbles and wasteful investment. The banking regulator last month reiterated a call for lenders to increase scrutiny of loans to property developers as the government ordered 78 state-controlled companies to exit the real-estate sector. Some lenders in Beijing have “voluntarily and prudently” raised down payment requirements for second mortgages to 60 percent of a property’s value, the banking watchdog said in a statement elaborating on Liu’s speech. Nationwide, banks are asking for down payments of between 40 percent and 50 percent for second mortgages, Liu said. The world financial crisis showed that leverage needs to be reduced, Liu said. Markets can never regulate and supervise themselves, he said, adding that financial regulations in China will go “back to the basics.” Climbing Property Prices China’s property prices rose 10.7 percent in February, the fastest pace in almost two years, fueling concern at the risk of asset bubbles as inflows of capital from abroad add to the money from domestic lending. Liu cited Shanghai and Beijing as examples of property markets affected by so-called “hot money” and speculation. The government aims to cut new lending by 22 percent this year from last year’s record. Officials last month raised deposit requirements for buyers at land auctions to 20 percent of the minimum price to increase costs for developers. They have also lifted banks’ reserve requirements twice this year and re-imposed a tax on home sales. The CBRC ordered lenders not to lend to developers holding land without building houses in a March 26 statement. It also asked banks to stop approving new credit lines to the 78 state-owned companies if they use collateral other than construction projects already in progress. To contact the reporter on this story: Yidi Zhao in Beijing at yzhao7@bloomberg.net Belinda Cao in Beijing at lcao4@bloomberg.net

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