August 18, 2009
By Anuchit Nguyen Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) — Thailand’s benchmark stock index may drop a further 3.5 percent after a trading momentum chart showed a sell signal, Tisco Securities Co. said. The SET Index may fall to a key support level of 610 next week, after the Moving Average Convergence-Divergence oscillator showed “negative divergence,†Viwat Techapoonpol, a Tisco analyst, wrote in a report today. The daily MACD line, based on the past 12 and 26 days, yesterday dropped below the signal line — based on the 9-day moving average — for the first time since July 20, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “The SET may have some correction in the next two weeks before rallying again in September,†Viwat said. “The index may hold steady in the next two days before dropping further until the middle of next week.†The benchmark index dropped 3.4 percent to 632.05 yesterday, its biggest decline since May 14. The measure was little changed today, slipping 0.1 percent to 631.35 as of 11:10 a.m. in Bangkok. Technical sellers usually step in when the MACD drop below its signal line, a so-called bearish crossover. MACD charts can indicate whether a price shift is a change in trend or a short- term deviation, by comparing moving averages based on 9, 12 and 26-day periods. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. To contact the reporter on this story: Anuchit Nguyen in Bangkok at anguyen@bloomberg.net
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