britain

Tax revenues in Britain hit records

by on January 15, 2012

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(MENAFN – Saudi Press Agency) Britain’s income tax revenues rose to a record $234 billion in 2011, despite a sluggish economy, UPI cited tax authorities as saying. Income tax revenues reached a …

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Tax revenues in Britain hit records

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(MENAFN – Gulf Times) Eyewitness reports emerged yesterday identifying a prime suspect in the 1984 killing of a policewoman outside the Libyan embassy, as Britain hopes Muammar Gaddafi’s downfall …

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UK- Hope of finding Libyan who shot police officer

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Starbucks To Help Pinkberry Achieve Global Frozen Yogurt Domination

May 1, 2011

If you have plans to vacation in Britain, Turkey, Morocco, and the Philippines this year, you might just find a tart, cold reminder of home. By the end of 2011, Pinkberry is planning to to be in 17 different international markets, according to Nation’s Restaurant News.

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Video: Hays CEO Sees Smaller U.K. Firms Creating Jobs `Uplift’

February 28, 2011

Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) — Hays Plc Chief Executive Officer Alistair Cox discusses the outlook for employment in the U.K. after Britain’s largest recruitment agency posted a 32.3 million pounds ($52.1 million) first-half profit, compared with a loss of 8 million pounds a year earlier. Cox talks with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television’s “On The Move.”

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Murdoch Buys His Daughter’s Company

February 21, 2011

LONDON — Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. has reached a deal to buy Shine Group, a television production company founded by the business magnate’s daughter Elisabeth, for 415 million pounds ($673.3 million). The company said Monday it signed a non-binding letter of intent and will proceed with the necessary regulatory filings to acquire Shine, the producer of popular British shows like “Masterchef” and “Merlin.” In a joint statement, Rupert Murdoch praised Shine’s “outstanding creative team” and said he expects his daughter to join News Corp.’s board once the deal is complete. Elisabeth Murdoch, a former managing director of Sky Networks who left her father’s company in 2000 to start Shine, said the alliance will help prepare her company for future growth. “I could not be happier or more proud that from such modest beginnings Shine will join such an extraordinary group of companies,” she said in the statement. News Corp. is one of the world’s largest media empires, and owns the Times and Sun newspapers in Britain, the Fox News Channel and the Wall Street Journal. News Corp. and Shine said they will continue to negotiate the final terms of the agreement, which will be subject to approval from both companies’ boards, the audit committee and the receipt of an independent fairness opinion. The companies did not say when they expect the deal to be completed. Once the deal closes, Shine Group will report to Chase Carey, News Corp.s’ deputy chairman, president and chief operating officer.

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Robert Teitelman: Don’t Overuse the Word "Revolution"

February 18, 2011

When was the last time you strolled into your local tavern and someone yelled, “Yo, bub, doesn’t that turmoil in the Middle East remind you of 1848?” Mostly, we recall the usual televised revolutions: the Soviet bloc, 1989 (the Wall); Tiananmen Square, 1989 (the tank); Iran, 1979 (hostages); the ’60s (hair). If you’re Glenn Beck, you’re fixated on the Russky Revolution, 1917 (George Soros as Vladimir Lenin). Then come the standbys: The American and French revolutions (wigs, Chryslers, guillotines). Textbook stuff. That about empties the revolution database. But in its day, revolutionary fever swept through Europe like a forest fire, an infection, a financial crisis, metaphors we have recently learned to toss about like beach balls. The conflagration of 1848, in retrospect, was foreshadowed by minor disturbances, pressures, forebodings; but when it came, it exploded spontaneously, like Tunisia, fed by a thousand grievances. A few nations resisted it — Britain, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Russia (too far, too autocratic) — as it hopscotched through pre-unified Italy, from Milan to Sicily, leapt to France, where the first blood ran, then through the German states, including Prussia, then the Hapsburg Empire, then back to France, Europe’s Egypt. The middle classes and nobility poured into the streets; the poor joined in. Absolutism quaked. Protests led to riots, barricades, tossed paving stones, deaths. And then, as the calendar flipped to 1849, the reactionaries took back the streets. The revolutions “failed,” raising the technical question of whether you can have a “revolution” that fails. The Springtime of Peoples ended. The crowds often lacked leadership and pursued divergent goals. Mostly, they were just tired of the same old lantern-jawed despots in charge. Expectations had been rising. Technology was on the march, and a popular press had emerged. Globalization stirred. But there had been famine across Europe — the potato blight wasn’t just Irish — and a trade slump. New ideas percolated: socialism, nationalism, liberalism, romanticism; 1848 was a boost to Karl Marx’s career. And yet, in the longer view, 1848 proved to be a beginning, not an end. The old men in charge, the Hosni Mubaraks, were shaken. The folks in the street had both demography and age on their side. After 1848, Germany and Italy unified; liberal institutions took root and pursued reforms, and Europe mostly drifted on a tide of bourgeois prosperity until World War I blew everything up. “Revolution” may be one of the most overused words in the vocabulary of modernity. There is a torrid romance about the concept, particularly when it’s occurring in far-off lands, or a past when soldiers rode horses and wore feathers. What is it we’re seeing in Egypt and beyond? Alas, the greater the distance, the stranger the milieu, the looser grasp we have on events. Revolutionary moments worship a glowing, if hypothetical, future. But even from the inside, they are chaos. Revolutions are profoundly unpredictable, not only in their direction but in their result: democracy, autocracy, kleptocracy, theocracy. They are a moral arbitrage between means and ends. Like a bubble, it’s hard to discern a true revolution as it’s unfolding; the test comes after, usually when the revolutionaries are old men themselves. True revolutions release energy, unmoor populations. The notion that any group or individual can control these forces — Mubarak, Obama, the Saudis, Google — is farcical, despite the “success” of the Chinese in Tiananmen, the Bolshevikis in St. Petersburg. “Winning” is subjective, a dice roll, not a Beckian dream of infiltration and mind control. A coup requires a cabal and a plot; a revolution dispatches bodies into heated Brownian motion. The term “revolution,” of course, has long been absorbed into our world of hype, self-promotion and status seeking. Jefferson nudged this along when he suggested a revolution every generation or so, just to clear the sinuses. Revolution is a key element of what used to be called radical chic and it attaches itself to technology like a leech. NPR recently asked people to write in about their experiences in revolutions. This is a weird form of political tourism, like saying, “Tell us your experiences in your last nuclear attack. Was it fun? Informative? Exciting?” This inflationary tendency is well known and not worth pursuing, except to note another similarity of revolutions to the notion of financial bubbles. Bubbles represent the separation of value from price; there’s no anchor tethering the price of tulips, mortgages or stocks to earth. They are unhinged, floating freely, creatures of their own gassy momentum. When we attach the word “revolutionary” to every new development, from the Tea Party to the iPad to political victories (Reagan, Gingrich, Obama), we debase its meaning and lose any sense of its seriousness — the blood, toil, destruction. We become a little stupid, a little blind and more than a little superficial — not to say a little more prone to the true revolution we never saw coming.

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GE Makes Big Move Into Oil Business

February 14, 2011

(By Megan Davies): General Electric Co (GE.N) is to buy a unit of British energy services firm John Wood Group (WG.L) for about $2.8 billion, the latest move by the largest U.S. conglomerate to boost its presence in oil services. GE’s acquisition John Wood’s well support division raised hopes of more deals in the oilfield services sector, where GE has recently been an active buyer of assets. GE, which is buying the unit through its oil and gas business, in December agreed to buy Britain’s oil drilling pipemaker Wellstream Holdings Plc for $1.3 billion. That followed a 2008 deal to buy pressure control equipment company Hydril for $1.1 billion and a 2007 deal to buy privately held oil and gas field equipment maker Vetco Gray. The U.S. company has said it could spend up to $30 billion on takeovers in the coming years as CEO Jeff Immelt renews GE’s focus on heavy manufacturing after reaching a deal to sell its media unit and scaling back the GE Capital finance arm. John Wood said it intends to return cash of no less than $1.7 billion to shareholders, helping to boost the company’s shares by 14.6 percent to 657 pence at 0921 GMT on Monday, their highest ever level. “We definitely think they John Wood got an attractive price. It was considerably more than what we were expecting,” said Royal Bank of Canada analyst Todd Scholl. “I would expect that, based on this valuation all of the oilfield services stocks would trade higher. The space certainly is very hot from an M&A perspective. We wouldn’t be surprised to see more deals.” Shares in oil services firm Petrofac (PFC.L) traded up 3.1 percent while London-listed pump and valve-maker Weir Group (WEIR.L), which has an oil field services division, rose 5 percent, with the latter helped by speculation that German conglomerate Siemens (SIEGn.DE) could be interested in it. GE said the John Wood unit acquisition would allow it to tap fast growing demand for enhanced oil recovery from mature oil fields. “Five years ago, drilling and production in GE did not exist,” John Krenicki, CEO of GE Energy said in a telephone interview. “Over the last five years we’ve built it up to be an industry leader.” He said that GE expects the deal to be ‘slightly accretive’ in 2011 assuming it closes by the end of the second quarter. Krenicki doesn’t anticipate more deals in the medium term in the specific area of drilling and production, but said there could be deals elsewhere. “Specific to this space — drilling and production — we think we have got what we needed for the medium term,” Krenicki said. “But the rest of the energy portfolio has capability to do more and we’ll look for things that make sense.” UNLOCKING PUZZLE Wood Group’s Well Support division is comprised of three business platforms — electric submersible pumps (ESPs), pressure control and logging services. GE said that deployment of electric submersible pumps are one of the most effective methods of enhancing production. “If you look at world oil production today, about two-thirds comes from 300 giant wells that are depleting about six percent a year,” said Krenicki. “Of those giant wells, only about one third of the oil has been extracted — for lots of reasons – cost, technology, difficulty. And world oil demand is to grow about 20 million barrels per day over the next decade.” “We know that these (electric submersible pumps) are the key to unlock this puzzle,” Krenicki said. John Wood said earlier in February it was looking into the possible sale of the well support unit. Sources previously told Reuters the company had put the division on the block and had hired Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX) to advise on the sale. Chief Executive Allister Langlands told reporters on Monday that John Wood would use some of the funds to pay for its purchase of oil production services company PSN, which it bought for $955 million in December, and added that the company will also look to make more acquisitions. “We’d like to expand our engineering business in Brazil, we’d like to grow our brownfield support business in Canada so those will be two areas that we continue to look at,” he said, adding that no deal was imminent. GE said on Sunday that Wood Group’s board intends to unanimously recommend the deal to its shareholders. It is expected to close later in 2011, GE said. (Additional reporting by Sarah Young; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe and Erica Billingham) Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Video: WikiLeaks’ Assange Due to Challenge Swedish Extradition

February 7, 2011

Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Nicole Itano previews WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange’s appearance in a London court today where he will challenge an extradition warrant from Britain to Sweden. She speaks with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television’s “On The Move.”

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Robert Lenzner: JP Morgan May Be Complicit in Madoff Scam

February 4, 2011

JP Morgan could be “complicit”, i.e. aiding and abetting the Madoff Ponzi scheme, by omission — that is not fulfilling its duty as a fiduciary — as well as by commission, according to white collar lawyers I have consulted today. It did not have to be an active partner in the Ponzi Scheme to be found guilty of a civil liability, lawyers say. Rather, the bank’s omission would be ignoring several red flags — troublesome signs of potential fraud — and never investigating their accuracy or meaning. The bank did not fulfill its requirement to investigate Madoff fully and so could be found to be compliant in the scam. Nevertheless, JPM denies being a party to the fraud and tries to defend its role by insisting that Madoff was not a major client of the bank. It apparently received many signs of trouble, but generally ignored or neglected these signs, according to the complaint filed yesterday. The suit alleges that JP Morgan earned approximately $500 million from servicing Madoff. There were numerable red flags, starting in 2002, that the bank never sought to pin down. Once the bank believed that Madoff’s performance figures were not possible in 2002, when the stock market was down 30%, JP Morgan Chase had a duty to cease its banking services and report Madoff to the authorities, some lawyers believe. JP Morgan, which was Madoff’s main banker, never investigated the reasons for hundreds of millions of dollars being transferred from Madoff’s account in New York to one in London — and then back to New York again. At the very least, JP Morgan was lax in not reporting these movements of cash to authorities under the requirements of regulations covering the issue of money laundering, say lawyers. In another instance, there were serious doubts about the due diligence done by a feeder fund to Madoff’s operation. In other words, the nation’s second largest bank, heretofore relatively unscathed, may be forced to settle the $6.4 billion suit brought against it by the bankruptcy trustee for Madoff’s firm, Irving Picard. In fact, it was not until 2008 — several months before Madoff came clean about the scam, that JP Morgan told Britain’s Organized Crime Agency that Madoff’s investment performance appeared to be “too good to be true.” This move came only after a bank employee in London had been threatened with physical injury by an officer of Swiss-based feeder fund Aurelia, who was trying to withdraw money from the Madoff fund in London. That is a shockingly long time for the bank to wait before informing the authorities. Mind you, JP Morgan did not then or any other time inform either the SEC, the Justice Department or the Treasury about its suspicions about Madoff. Not a particularly impressive performance by the House of Morgan. Better clean house of those patsies, Jamie.

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Video: Gardner Sees U.K. House Prices `Treading Water’ in 2011

February 1, 2011

Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) — Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide Building Society, talks about the outlook for U.K. house prices in 2011. The average cost of a home slipped 0.1 percent from December to 161,602 pounds ($259,144), Nationwide, Britain’s biggest customer-owned lender said. Gardner speaks from Swindon, England, with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.”

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Lobster In The Mountains, Riots On The Nile

January 29, 2011

(Reuters) – The global elite, dining on Norwegian lobster and reindeer at the end of the World Economic Forum on Saturday, felt pretty chipper despite growing concerns about the inequality of the economic recovery. While they believe the global financial and euro zone debt crises are abating, the real world intruded with a different and much more acute crisis in Egypt that made their debates about inequality and food security less theoretical than anticipated. This year’s four-day talkfest in the Swiss mountain resort of Davos was a fragmented affair. The issue expected to dominate discussion, the euro zone debt crisis, turned out to be a relatively damp squib, with a growing consensus among bankers and policymakers that a resolution of the issue may be near. If there was one common strand in Davos this year it was growing divisions — whether between fast-growing emerging markets and sluggish developed world economies, or between rich and poor within countries. As residents in Cairo and Alexandria counted the cost of a further night of clashes between protesters and police on Saturday, politicians and business leaders urged Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to start a dialogue with his people. The corporate world is nervous. Egypt has, after all, been one of the darlings of African and Middle Eastern investors, and the world is stepping into unknown territory with the rapid spread of unrest from country to country, propelled by the Internet and mobile technology. LESSON OF EGYPT “The lesson from Egypt is clear: people will no longer accept oppression, particularly when oppression is married with rising food prices, a lack of employment and the destruction of hope for a young generation,” Sharan Burrow, general secretary of the International Trade Union Confederation, told Reuters. Yet the mood among 2,500 business leaders and policy-makers in Davos was still predominantly positive, albeit tempered with caution after the worst economic slump in 75 years. “Compared to last year and the year before, there is certainly much greater confidence about stability, more optimism about the global economic outlook,” said the International Monetary Fund’s first deputy managing director John Lipsky. For many CEOs and bankers, there is simply the reassurance of having put yet another year’s distance between themselves and the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, which brought the world economy to the brink. As a result, the panicky mood evident at the last two annual meetings in Davos has evaporated and business bosses are starting to look again at spending the trillions of dollars of cash sitting on their balance sheets. “It is quite obvious that the mood has changed. Everybody is much calmer,” said Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg. “You see it in the meetings, without people speaking on their telephones or leaving the room or having to stand in the corner, having very difficult conversations.” As ever, this year’s Davos was an eclectic mix, covering everything from macroeconomics to geopolitics to management theory to science. But there was no single, dominant theme — and Adair Turner, chairman of Britain’s Financial Services Authority, reckons that, perhaps, is the most encouraging sign of all. “It is a thoroughly good thing because when the world gets gripped by one big theme it usually either means there’s a big disaster or else people are getting in the grip of some new irrational exuberance,” he said. (Additional reporting by Emma Thomasson and Dmitry Zhdannikov; editing by Michael Stott and Mark Heinrich) Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Specter Of Currency War Rears Its Head At Davos

January 29, 2011

DAVOS, Switzerland — A fight is looming between rich and poor countries over the value of the dollar and other key currencies, as governments use monetary tricks to boost their national recovery at the expense of other nations, political and business leaders warned Saturday. Washington has been leaning hard on Beijing to allow the Chinese renminbi to rise, saying it is being kept artificially cheap to maintain China’s cheap labor advantage. At the same time the United States, Britain and others have encouraged their central banks to pump money into the system as a means of stimulating the economy. “We are going to see the recovery of nationalism and protectionism, I think we’re going to face some type of currency war,” said Jose Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo, president and CEO of Brazilian oil giant Petrobras. “The U.S. is going to try to use weak dollar policy to help recovery in the U.S., and Brazil, India are not going to accept that and will fight back, and then we’re going to see some struggle and conflicts,” he said. His words echoed concerns expressed by many participants of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this week, where ways to maintain the fragile global recovery – and risks to it – are being hotly debated. Ministers for Germany and France said the euro, and the 17 countries that use it, should be not be short changed by financial markets and that any future shocks to the common currency were unlikely. “I think the euro will be stable,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said. Christine Lagarde, France’s economy minister said “I think the euro zone has turned a corner. Let’s not short Europe and let’s not short the euro zone.” Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd, responding to a Chinese participant’s defense of China’s currency policies, said, “A few of the rest of us would say a better approach is the appreciation of the renminbi.” Beijing has been wary of letting go control of its currency even as food prices rises are driving up inflation – a situation that has been partly blamed for spurring anti-government protests in the Middle East this week. Rudd said the world has huge concerns about how China will deal with its inflation, and urged Beijing to “get the exchange rate right.” Concerns about where the renminbi, dollar and in particular the euro are heading were aired as more than two dozen senior officials from key economies met in Davos to discuss sending a political signal that a new global trade deal can be completed this year. Thailand’s prime minister said Saturday that failure to conclude the so-called Doha round of trade talks, which have been nearly 10 years in the making, indicated a leadership vacuum on the global stage. “Despite what global leaders say, they are still very much dictated by domestic politics,” Abhisit Vejjajiva told a panel. Renewed talk of a deal – which some say could add billions to the world economy – has won backing from leaders and executives at the World Economic Forum this week. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister David Cameron cited it as a key test for the international community’s ability to cooperate in reviving the world economy. “We are literally meters away from the finishing line,” Merkel said Friday. Experts remain skeptical that a deal can be reached this year, mainly because China and the United States remain at loggerheads on key issues. Pushing the talks into 2012 – a U.S. presidential election year – would make a conclusion even less likely because the sensitive issue of trade would be a hard sell for politicians of any stripe. But Pascal Lamy, head of the World Trade Organization, said the talks at Davos were “very constructive. The ministers gave a strong signal.” Johann N. Schneider-Ammann, Switzerland’s economy minister, said that there was “a sense that we are in the end game and that if Doha is done, it needs to be done this year.” China’s growth and worries about Europe’s debts have been another focus of attention among the 2,500 business and political leaders discussing the state of the world economy this week. ___ Online: http://www.weforum.org ___ Angela Charlton and Tomislav Skaro contributed to this report.

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Facebook blamed for divorces in Britain

January 25, 2011

Facebook blamed for divorces in Britain

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Video: Shipside Says U.K. Homeowners Delaying Decision to Sell

November 15, 2010

Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) — Miles Shipside, commercial director at Rightmove Plc, the operator of Britain’s biggest property Web site, talks about the outlook for house prices in the U.K. amid a seasonal slowdown in sales. Average asking prices for homes in England and Wales fell 3.2 percent from October to 229,379 pounds ($371,000), Rightmove said. Shipside speaks with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.”

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BP Sells 4 Gulf Of Mexico Fields To Marubeni To Pay For Oil Spill

October 25, 2010

LONDON — BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley accused some politicians and the media on Monday of being too hasty to pin all the blame on his company for the devastating Gulf of Mexico spill – and emphasized the need for deep-water drilling. In his first major public speech since taking the top job, Dudley also said BP would not pull out of the United States – and that the U.S. needs a company with BP’s resources to meet its vast energy needs. Dudley delivered a speech whose mood hovered between firm and penitent, seeking to make clear that BP was learning every lesson possible from the disaster. He stressed that he also has met with experts from other hazardous industries, including the nuclear and chemical industries, as part of the company’s focus on improving safety. “We were certainly not perfect in our response, but we have tried to do the right thing,” Dudley added. Before becoming the first American to lead the British oil company on Oct. 1, Dudley was in charge of BP’s spill response efforts in the Gulf. U.S. lawmakers have widely blamed BP for the disaster. On Monday, Dudley said many parties, including the media and rival oil companies, were guilty of “a great rush to judgment” before all the facts were known. “I watched graphic projections of oil swirling around the Gulf, around Florida, across and around Bermuda to England – these appeared authoritative and inevitable. The public fear was everywhere,” he said. The company’s own investigation shared the blame with rig owner Transocean Ltd. and contractor Halliburton Co. The U.S. government could fine BP up to $21 billion for the spill, on top of a $20 billion disaster fund that the company has committed itself to. A bill that passed in the U.S. House of Representatives would prevent companies like BP that have a poor safety record from getting new offshore permits. A Senate bill that was eventually tabled didn’t contain a similar provision. Speaking at an annual conference of Britain’s leading business lobby group, Dudley stressed BP’s commitment to the United States despite the ongoing political and public fallout and talked up the company’s ability to withstand the expected financial hit from the spill. Earlier Monday, BP announced it has sold its stake in four mature oil and gas fields in the Gulf of Mexico to Marubeni Oil and Gas for $650 million (euro466 million). The fields were part of a recent acquisition of Gulf assets from Devon Energy and were considered nonessential. BP is hoping to raise $30 billion from selling assets and already has raked in almost $9 billion from the sale of properties in Egypt, Canada, the U.S. and Colombia. Dudley argued that deepwater drilling is necessary despite the dangers. He cited predictions that the world could be consuming 40 percent more energy than today by 2030. Deepwater drilling is projected to grow to account for 9 percent of total oil supplies in 2020, from 7 percent currently. He said BP is “one of only a handful of companies with the financial and technological strengths to undertake development projects in these difficult geographies and it can be done safely.” BP continues to make plans for further drilling projects in the Gulf of Mexico. Rig owner Pride International Inc. said BP has leased two of its deepwater rigs. One of those rigs is already in the Gulf and another is on its way. Pride spokeswoman Kate Perez said it’s unclear what projects are in store for those rigs – they still could be moved out of the Gulf. BP relies on the Gulf for about 10 percent of its total oil and gas production. President Barack Obama recently lifted a moratorium on new deepwater drilling in the Gulf, imposed after the April 20 explosion that kicked off the worst oil spill in U.S. history. Obama is due to announce further recommendations under a presidential commission in the coming months. Dudley, who took over from gaffe-prone former CEO Tony Hayward early this month, also sought again to reassure business leaders that the company has the financial strength to shoulder the anticipated heavy costs of the Gulf spill. Dudley said he has spent much of his time since becoming CEO traveling the world to visit BP’s partners. “Our underlying operational and financial performance is sound,” he said, stressing the company’s wide geographical reach. Analysts responded with optimism. “That’s what the company needs, it needs a determined champion not an apologist,” said Nick McGregor, an analyst at Redmayne-Bentley Stockbrokers. “He’s going to want to go forward and leave the apologies … His job is to acknowledge the past, not continuously apologize for it.” Dudley dismissed suggestions that the United States might turn its back on the company, or that BP could voluntarily leave the United States. “I am confident that neither of these propositions is true,” he said. “Contrary to what is sometimes said, BP is not widely seen over there as ‘British Petroleum’: we’re part of the American community.”

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Video: LSE’s Desai Backs U.K. Deficit Cuts, Sees Slow Recovery

October 18, 2010

Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) — Meghnad Desai, a professor emeritus of the London School of Economics and a member of Britain’s House of Lords, talks about the U.K. government’s deficit cutting plans. He speaks with Andrea Catherwood on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.”

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Fernando Espuelas: Want Economic Growth? Legalize 12 Million People

October 8, 2010

A job-less recovery, ballooning deficits, fraudulent foreclosures, middle class anxiety — let’s face it, we are feeling the mother of all hang-overs from the Great Recession. But there is one major catalyst, an economic engine that we’ve ignored, for igniting robust, sustainable economic growth that will lift all boats: comprehensive immigration reform that brings 12 million undocumented immigrants fully into the economy. Call it the “12 million people stimulus bill” project. As Americans, we need to be strategists that are thinking about the next 100 years of American global leadership.  Comprehensive immigration reform, if the law is intelligently conceived and executed, will be a significant step in increasing our global competitiveness.  Its passage will spark economic growth across broad sectors of the American economy, from manufacturing to retail. Fully integrated into the economy, immigrants will add to both the financial and human capital of the country. New businesses will be created by these immigrants, their kids will be able to plan college educations, money now squirreled away will be invested in productive activities, the tax base will expand. In fact, several studies have projected a more rapid growth in GDP because of the effect of immigration. According to the Center for American Progress report “Raising the Floor for American Workers: The Economic Benefits of Comprehensive Immigration Reform”: “The historical experience of legalization under the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act indicates that comprehensive immigration reform would raise wages, increase consumption, create jobs, and generate additional tax revenue. Even though IRCA was implemented during an economic recession characterized by high unemployment, it still helped raise wages and spurred increases in educational, home, and small-business investments by newly legalized immigrants. Taking the experience of IRCA as a starting point, we estimate that comprehensive immigration reform would yield at least $1.5 trillion in cumulative U.S. gross domestic product over 10 years. This is a compelling economic reason to move away from the current “vicious cycle” where enforcement-only policies perpetuate unauthorized migration and exert downward pressure on already low wages, and toward a “virtuous cycle” of worker empowerment in which legal status and labor rights exert upward pressure on wages.” Objective economic evidence strongly suggest that immigration in not only needed for the long-term economic health of the United States, it is in fact today an important driver of growth in the overall American economic pie. This is growth, moreover, to the benefit of all Americans . Getting this part of our national strategy is critical.  A recent study undertaken for the Federal Reserve showed the net positive effect of immigration for native-born American workers.  As the study states: “…[A] net inflow of immigrants equal to 1% of employment increases income per worker by 0.6% to 0.9%. This implies that total immigration to the United States from 1990 to 2007 was associated with a 6.6% to 9.9% increase in real income per worker. That equals an increase of about $5,100 in the yearly income of the average U.S. worker in constant 2005 dollars. Such a gain equals 20% to 25% of the total real increase in average yearly income per worker registered in the United States between 1990 and 2007.” Sadly, this is an issue that has become violently partisan. The Arizona anti-immigrant law, for example, was passed on a straight party vote. It is a fundamental mistake to filter immigration reform through a partisan lenses. I think a more accurate context through which to view immigration is as a national security issue.  America must look forward to a changing world and be sure that we will have the human resources needed to maintain our economic and military supremacy. Our global competitors are not sitting still — we should not either. As history has shown us, countries that have failed to keep these factors in balance tend to fade as global powers. The Chinese Empire, Spain, France and Britain are just some of the examples of former world powers brought low by bad policy decisions. We should not join them. If this issue is properly and responsibly handled by political leaders — leaders that transcend petty party concerns to become statesmen and stateswomen — it is an opportunity to bring the country together with a smart, strategic reform that is pro-economic growth. Leaders of both parties must rise to the occasion — America needs you to do the right thing. America needs a “12 million people stimulus bill” now.

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Michael Jacobs: Europe’s Carbon Choice

October 7, 2010

As international negotiators meet in the Chinese port of Tianjin for the final preparatory talks before next month’s UN Climate Change Conference in Mexico, a remarkable debate is brewing in Europe. Governments and businesses are posing a radical question: should the European Union simply ignore the international climate change negotiations and move towards a low carbon economy regardless? The very idea that Europe might unilaterally push ahead of other countries in reducing its greenhouse emissions represents a surprising reversal of the received wisdom. This said that, since curbing emissions was economically expensive, countries or regions could not act unilaterally: to do so would simply drive industry overseas to less punitive markets. So only a new international climate agreement could secure the necessary action in individual countries. When failure at Copenhagen rendered the prospect of such agreement remote, radical emissions cuts looked set to remain on hold. In Europe’s case, this meant that the EU would retain its agreed target to reduce emissions by 20% (on 1990 levels) by 2020, but no more. Yet just a few months later Europe is debating whether or not the EU should increase its 2020 emissions cuts to 30%. Britain, France and Germany lead the countries backing the call. Even more remarkably, a group of leading European businesses have publicly stated their support. How is this possible? Three factors have shifted the argument. First, the recession has made a 30% cut by 2020 much less expensive than before. Europe’s emissions last year were 7% down on 2008, leaving the EU already close (at 17%) to its 20% emissions cut targeted for 2020. It is calculated that increasing the reduction to 30% would now cost the European economy not much more than was originally projected for the 20% target. The recession has been particularly damaging to Europe’s flagship climate policy, its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). The scheme puts a price on carbon by capping the total emissions from power producers and industry, and then allowing firms to trade pollution allowances. But the recession has created a huge surplus of permits in the system, as firms find that with much lower output they do not now need the quantity they were allocated. The result is an ETS carbon price bumping along at a mere 15 Euros per ton, which simply doesn’t provide enough incentive for energy and industrial companies to invest in low carbon technologies. Indeed, it does precisely the reverse, encouraging conventional high-carbon investments in gas and coal fired generation. Since such investments last up to 40 years, this threatens to lock in high European emissions for decades — making Europe’s commitment to cut its emissions by 80% by 2050 almost impossible to achieve. Here a second factor has entered the debate. Not so long ago, radical long-term emissions targets looked like airy promises without much technological or economic basis. But a remarkable new study published by the European Climate Foundation, in close cooperation with the European energy industry, has shown that an 80% cut in Europe’s emissions by 2050 is not just technically feasible, it could be achieved at around the same cost as “business as usual”. The ” Roadmap 2050 ” study shows that current low carbon technologies (renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage) could in 40 years’ time be supplying Europe with 40% more electricity than now with the same level of reliability, yet produce almost zero emissions. With oil and gas prices projected to rise steeply over the period, a modest average carbon price of 20-30 Euros per ton of CO2 would make such a decarbonized power system no more expensive than a high carbon one powered by conventional fossil fuels. There would be no net cost to GDP, economic productivity would rise through greater energy efficiency, employment would be slightly higher, and there would be huge gains in energy security. The key to decarbonization is the development of a European “supergrid”, an enhanced transmission network connecting power sources to demand across (and beyond) the continent. Such a grid would tackle the problem of “intermittency” suffered by individual renewable technologies: when the wind was not sufficiently powering offshore turbines off the coast of Britain, electricity could be supplied from concentrated solar panels in Spain and North Africa. Enhanced by “smart grid” technologies enabling the balancing of supply and demand on the system, such a grid would allow the widespread use of electric vehicles and electric heat pumps in buildings, contributing further to the overall reduction in Europe’s carbon emissions. The investment required to implement the Roadmap 2050 vision is huge: an additional 3 trillion Euros over 40 years on an existing requirement of more than 4 trillion. Over the next ten years alone investment in new renewables and grid could hit 250bn Euros. But Europe’s policymakers have been swift to identify a corollary, and in it a third argument in favour of urgent action — the huge potential for job creation to stimulate growth in a European economy still stuck in recession. For Europe’s leading energy and manufacturing firms, domestic action creates a market from which to win the global race to develop and supply clean technologies. Increasingly, European politicians note the potential in this field for comparative European economic advantage, both over the US and other industrialized countries where climate legislation has stalled, and over China, now a major exporter in its own right. This is not to say the argument for stronger unilateral action has yet been won. Politically the demand is very much a North and West European one, with the new member states of Eastern Europe largely resistant. At the same time, while energy companies and high tech manufacturers are attracted by the economic benefits, much of European business is opposed, fearful of higher energy costs. Over the next few months a series of EU decisions will decide which way the continent turns. The EU’s 27 member states face a historic choice. Do they wait for international agreement, and in the meantime allow Europe to continue down the high carbon road? Or do they strike off now towards a low carbon future? The answer they give will resonate well beyond Europe’s borders. A longer version of this article is published in Inside Story .

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BP May Have Violated U.S. Sanctions On Trade With Iran, Says Government Audit

October 4, 2010

This story has been updated BP is one of 16 international companies that may have violated U.S. sanctions against selling gas to Iran, according to a new report by the Government Accountability Office. Under the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability and Divestment Act (CISADA) signed by President Obama in July 2010, companies or individuals that sell refined petroleum products to Iran in excess of $1 million during a year are subject to three or more out of a possible nine sanctions. Investigators at the GAO claim that BP sold the petroleum between January 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010, based on open sources, which includes trade publications and company statements. Though the GAO examined sales before the signing of the updated sanctions in July 2010, the report “highlights open source information that, following further investigation by the State Department, could contribute to the identification of persons of firms whose activities may be sanctionable under ISA [Iran Sanctions Act of 1996], as amended by CISADA.” Yet BP notified GAO that it stopped selling gasoline to Iran in October 2008 and maintains that information that reported “BP sold gasoline to Iran in 2009 or 2010 was inaccurate,” according to the report. The GAO stands by its research, emphasizing that “we required multiple corroborating sources of information for every entry in our tables of firms reported to have sold refined petroleum products to Iran at any time during the period between January 1, 2009, and June 30, 2010.” BP stopped selling gas to Iran in the second half of 2009, reported Time magazine in June. But it remains one of the most active Western oil companies engaged in energy projects in Iran — through a joint venture with Swiss-based NaftIran: In the last five years, BP has begun extracting around 4 million cubic meters per day of natural gas from a field in Britain’s North Sea in a 50-50 joint venture with Iran, worth $1 million a day at June 15, 2010 spot prices. And BP operates one of the world’s largest gas fields in Azerbaijan in a joint venture with Iran and other foreign oil companies, producing 8 billion cubic meters of gas per year, worth up to a reported $2.4 billion per year. BP was one of three companies, along with France’s Total and United Arab Emirates’ Emirates National Oil Company, which are reported to have sold gas to Iran and to have U.S. government contracts. According to the GAO, BP has almost $2.2 billion in contracts with the U.S. government, largely with the Department of Defense for the purchase of jet and turbine fuel. Firms that are reported to have sold gas to Iran in the 2009-2010 period “with no indication that they have stopped sales” include Emirates National Oil Company, Singapore’s Hin Leong Trading, China’s ChinaOil, Unipec and Zhuhai Zhenrong. BP did not return a call for comment in time for publication. READ the GAO report: d10967r

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Lehman Brothers’ London Office Holds Art Auction (PHOTOS)

September 24, 2010

LONDON, AP — For sale: a sign of the times. Christie’s is auctioning off the 10 foot-long (3 meter-long) sign that adorned the European headquarters of Lehman Brothers, along with paintings, furniture and other objects from the offices of the collapsed investment bank. They are among millions of dollars’ (euros’) worth of items being sold to help pay Lehman’s creditors. The bank collapsed in September 2008. It was the largest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history and helped cause one of the worst financial crises since the Great Depression. On Friday Christie’s held a preview of items from the sale, which is expected to raise about 2 million pounds ($3.1 million). The 300 lots include works by modern artists including Gary Hume, Robert Rauschenberg and Lucian Freud, a selection of maritime and sporting paintings and office knickknacks – antique tea caddies, model boats, cigar boxes, bronze animals and Chinese ceramics. Collectors can also bid on the headquarters’ sign, valued at 2,000 pounds to 3,000 pounds, and a plaque commemorating the opening of the building in 2004 by Britain’s then-Treasury chief, Gordon Brown, valued at between 1,000 pounds and 1,500 pounds. The most expensive work, a large photograph by Andreas Gursky of the teeming New York Mercantile Exchange, will be sold separately next month and is valued at between 100,000 pounds and 150,000 pounds. The sale is scheduled for Wednesday in London. More artworks from Lehman Brothers’ collection will be sold by Sotheby’s in New York this Saturday, at an auction expected to raise $10 million – a tiny fraction of the $613 billion in debts held by Lehman when it collapsed. Check out the Lehman Brothers auction items up for sale:

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Verizon Taps Lowell McAdam As COO, Likely CEO Successor

September 20, 2010

NEW YORK — Verizon Communications Inc. has named the head of its wireless division, Lowell C. McAdam, as its chief operating officer, setting him up as a successor to the CEO. The move announced Monday clarifies the succession at Verizon after it said a week ago that chief financial officer John Killian plans to retire at the end of the year. He has been at the job for a year and a half. CEO Ivan Seidenberg, 63, has led the company for the past decade. McAdam, 56, starts in his new job Oct. 1. Verizon shares rose 41 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $32.09 Monday. They set a 52-week high of $32.17 earlier in the session. McAdam became head of Verizon Wireless in 2007. Before that, he was chief operating officer of the venture since it was founded in 2000. During McAdam’s tenure as CEO, the company executed an acquisition – that of Alltel Corp. in 2009 – that made it the largest carrier in the industry. McAdam has also struggled with the surging popularity of the iPhone. It has led to a close relationship between Verizon Wireless and Google Inc., which provides its Android software to phones that compete with Apple Inc.’s phone, and close personal contact between McAdam and Google CEO Eric Schmidt. Daniel S. Mead will take over as head of Verizon Wireless, a joint venture between Verizon Communications and Britain’s Vodafone Group PLC. He was previously the venture’s chief operating officer. Verizon Communications said Monday it is also promoting Francis J. Shammo, head of Verizon Telecom and Business, to succeed Killian in the job of chief financial officer beginning Nov. 1.

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Richard (RJ) Eskow: As the Aging Stoop to Their Labors, Prosperous Pundits Lecture Them About Sacrifice

September 15, 2010

The aging American workforce has been vilified a lot lately, in much the same way the poor were in previous decades. Politicians who once might have spread myths about “welfare queens” are now describing retired people as “greedy geezers.” Not to be outdone, well-paid pundits are rushing to lecture people on their moral failings and urging them to rediscover the nobility of sacrifice. But sacrifice for whom, exactly, and to what end? It doesn’t seem to matter — and that’s the problem. Fortunately, not everyone’s joining the crusade. Today’s shining example is John Leland from the New York Times, who took the time to review the data on aging workers. What’s more, he even went out and talked to some of them. Here’s what Mr. Leland learned. As a new analysis by the Center for Economic and Policy Research demonstrates, “one in three workers over age 58 does a physically demanding job … including hammering nails, bending under sinks, lifting baggage — (a job) can be radically different at age 69 than at age 62. ” Leland also met workers like 58-year-old Jack Hartley, who “works a 12-hour shift assembling tires: pulling piles of rubber and lining over a drum, cutting the material with a hot knife, lifting the half-finished tire, which weighs 10 to 20 pounds, and throwing it onto a rack.” As Leland explains, “Mr. Hartley performs these steps nearly 30 times an hour, or 300 times in a shift.” Says Jack Hartley, “The pain started about the time I was 50. Dessert with lunch is ibuprofen. Your knees start going bad, your lower back, your elbows, your shoulders.” Politicians from both parties — some Democrats and many Republicans — have been contemplating raising the Social Security retirement age for some time, and their efforts are endorsed by analysts like Eugene Steurle of the Urban Institute. According to Leland, Steurle believes Social Security is threatened financially because people are living longer. That’s a doubled-barrelled mistake: Social Security isn’t threatened financially. It can pay full benefits until 2037, and could be made permanently stable just by raising the cap on payroll taxes. And the “living longer” part is a common misconception that’s easily dispelled by looking up some census tables and other data . While I disagree with analysts like Mr. Steurle, at least he’s civil in expressing his views. That stands in sharp contrast to Deficit Commission co-chair Alan Simpson, the Id of the Washington Elite. We won’t re-litigate Simpson’s behavior, except to say that his candid articulation of the elite consensus paved the way for a growing wave of prosperous pundits who are now castigating middle class Americans for clinging to their dreams of retirement. Consider Alison Schrager, a blogger for the The Economist, who wrote this: “I don’t know if it’s ever going to be realistic that everyone saves enough to spend the last third of their life on vacation .” (Emphasis mine.) Or the Atlantic’s Megan McArdle, who exults that Schrager’s “vacation” comment is my favorite line in my newest column for the magazine .” Adds McArdle: “It was nice that a combination of rising life expectancy and broader pension coverage allowed a large segment of American workers to take what amounted to a multi-decade vacation …. But this was never going to be sustainable.” Pop quiz: Which of these two financially comfortable, sedentary writers has written the sentence that best captures the spirit of Scrooge’s “are there no workhouses” speech? Is it the one who thinks retirement from a life of physical labor is a “vacation,” or the one who says that’s her “favorite line” while adding that letting manual laborers retire before their bodies fail completely was “nice” while it lasted? (It was a trick question: They’ve both channeled Scrooge beautifully, and added a more than a pinch of Simon Legree.) So who are these older workers with wild vacation fantasies, these shirkers looking for an all-expenses-paid trip to Margaritaville? Here are the statistics: Among workers 58 and over, 37% of men and 32% of women do physically demanding work. (The figure’s 62% for Hispanic men.) They’re janitors, maids, gardeners, carpenters, cooks, and people who carry out the other physically taxing jobs listed in the study. You can almost picture Megan McArdle and Alison Schrager glowering as these working Americans mow their lawns and mop their floors, looking down on them through golden lorgnettes perched on noses wrinkled in disapproval. Imagine: After paying their payroll taxes for thirty or forty years, these workers actually hope to collect a benefit that averages out to more than $1,100 per month (about $920 for women)! No wonder Schrager and McArdle are tut-tutting over the self-indulgent dreams of the hired help. Then there’s Anne Applebaum. In her latest Slate piece, Applebaum thrills to the descriptions she says have been given to Great Britain’s new leadership and its fiscal policy: “Vicious cuts.” “Savage cuts.” “Swingeing (sic) cuts.” “Axe-wielders.” Never before has a government budget been greeted with such lurid, sado-masochistically charged imagery. Her piece reads like a cross between The Story of O and Milton Friedman’s Capitalism and Freedom. “Articles about the nation’s finances are filled with talk of blood, knives, and amputation,” Applebaum writes. “And the British love it,” she adds enviously. No debt, please, we’re British. Just in case you didn’t get the moral point lying beneath the slasher imagery, Applebaum spells it out: “Austerity is what made Britain great.” (And we thought it was the food.) She contrasts the British population’s posture of enthusiastic submission, at least as she sees it, with the American people’s unwillingness to submit to discipline. We just want “instant gratification,” she says — except, quoting a “quip” from Britain’s Deputy Prime Minister, “it isn’t quick enough for some people.” While Applebaum calls for our country to embrace “savage cuts,” however, she fails to take note of the base from which those cuts would be made. The British have a fully nationalized system of publicly funded healthcare. Their current retirement age is 65 (60 for women born before 1950), where ours is 66 and scheduled to reach 67 by 2022. The British retirement age is scheduled to rise at a much more leisurely pace: to 67 by 2036 and 68 by 2046. But never mind the details: Jack Hartley must start sacrificing now . No more “instant gratification” for you, pal! Applebaum saves her most jaw-dropping statement for the final paragraph: “I don’t hear anyone in America talking about cuts in Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security,” she writes. Really? She hasn’t heard Simpson’s repeated calls for cuts? Or John Boehner’s suggestion to raise the retirement age to 70 ? Or House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, who made the same suggestion? Applebaum doesn’t even seem to realize that Obama created a Deficit Commission, or that he specifically (and in my view unwisely) authorized it to look at Social Security and Medicare. Let’s read that sentence again: “I don’t hear anyone in America talking about cuts in Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security.” Applebaum’s Scrooge moment comes when she contrasts Americans unfavorably with their blade-happy British cousins, and then offers this explanation: “The last period of real national hardship Americans might remember is the 1930s, too long ago for almost everyone alive today.” She might want to run that whole “we can’t remember real hardship” notion by the more than six million Americans who are trapped in long-term unemployment, or the other 10 million who are currently unemployed. She might also want to double-check it with the 45 million Americans living in poverty as of 2009, after the highest single-year increase in the number of poor people since they started tracking their numbers. Or with the one out of five children in this country now living in poverty. The United States now has the third highest poverty rate among developed nations , according to the OECD, behind only Turkey and Mexico. Household participation in the food stamp program passed 41 million for the first time ever in June. A”period of great hardship” is anything but a distant memory for these Americans, who would presumably be among those expected to ‘sacrifice.’ Which gets us to back to our original question: Sacrifice for whom? She doesn’t say. Neither does Tom Friedman, who devotes most of today’s column to scolding children from a lordly height (based on Paul Samuelson’s inability to accurately interpret school test scores — but that’s a topic for another day). Friedman’s displeased with their parents, too. Like Applebaum, Friedman believes our unbalanced budget proves that the nation has a “values problem.” “All solutions must be painless,” he says dismissively of his fellow Americans. “Which drug would you like? A stimulus from Democrats or a tax cut from Republicans?” That’s a false equivalence. The stimulus Friedman dismisses as a “drug” is really an urgently needed cure, but you have to be aware of the suffering around you to know that. Many economists who worry about killing the recovery too soon are urging immediate stimulus spending to get the economy moving again. They say cuts should come later, after the economy is stabilized, and shouldn’t be applied unjustly. Friedman can’t wait. He’s too eager to hear “our generation’s leaders … utter the word ‘sacrifice’.” And he’s not too interested in the specifics, either. Friedman holds up the “Greatest Generation” as an ideal, the apogee of national self-denial in service of a greater cause. Sure, they’re to be honored for their hard work and nobility of spirit. But that same generation enjoyed income equality, retirement security, and prosperity built on the purchasing power of a thriving middle class. Those are the things that are most threatened by Friedman’s rhetoric. Friedman says our elders called for sacrifice “the only way you can, by saying: ‘Follow me’.” But that generation sacrificed so that their children could have a good education that would lead to even greater opportunities than they themselves had. They sacrificed so that they could look forward to a financially secure retirement. They sacrificed to reduce poverty, and to build a society where everyone had the opportunity to work and prosper. What kind of world do Friedman and Applebaum want us to sacrifice for? As we said, that doesn’t even seem to matter to them. They’re making a fetish of austerity, without any greater vision or purpose. That’s fatuous and dangerous, especially when their calls for self-sacrifice are applied with false even-handedness in the face of rising income inequality, unemployment, and poverty. Sacrifice for the greater good is a fine and admirable thing. But sacrifice for sacrifice’s sake, bloodletting for the thrill of seeing a swinging axe, the yearning for a vicarious sense of national nobility at the expense of others — these are the thoughtless expressions of people who prefer symbol over substance. They’re the product of an indulgent form of self-mythologizing that interferes with analytical thinking and anesthetizes the human conscience. And as for McArdle and Schrager, there’s not much more to say. A “vacation”? That’s just horrible. _______________________________________________________________ Richard (RJ) Eskow, a consultant and writer (and former insurance/finance executive), is a Senior Fellow with the Campaign for America’s Future. This post was produced as part of the Strengthen Social Security campaign. Richard also blogs at A Night Light . He can be reached at “rjeskow@ourfuture.org.” Website: Eskow and Associates

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Ian Fletcher: America Was Founded as a Protectionist Nation

September 11, 2010

Contemporary American politics is conducted in the shadow of historical myths that inform our present-day choices. Unfortunately, these myths sometimes lead us terribly astray. Case in point is the popular idea that America’s economic tradition has been economic liberty, laissez faire, and wide-open cowboy capitalism. This notion sounds obvious, and it fits the image of this country held by both the Right, which celebrates this tradition, and the Left, which bemoans it. And it seems to imply, among other things, that free trade is the American Way. Don’t Tread On Me or my right to import. It is, in fact, very easy to construct an impressive-sounding defense of free trade as a form of economic liberty on the basis of this myth. Unfortunately, this myth is just that: a myth, not real history. The reality is that all four of the four presidents on Mount Rushmore were protectionists. (Even the pseudo-libertarian Jefferson came around after the War of 1812.) Historically, protectionism has been, in fact, the real American Way. This pattern even predates American independence. During the colonial period, the British government tried to force its American colonies to become suppliers of raw materials to the nascent British industrial machine while denying them any manufacturing industry of their own. The colonies were, in fact, the single biggest victim of British trade policy, being under Britain’s direct political control, unlike its other trading partners. The British knew exactly what they were doing: they were happy to see America thrive, but only as a cog in their own industrial machine. As former Prime Minster William Pitt, otherwise a famous conciliator of American grievances and the namesake of Pittsburgh, once said in Parliament, If the Americans should manufacture a lock of wool or a horse shoe, I would fill their ports with ships and their towns with troops. Thus the American Revolution was to some extent a war over industrial policy , in which the commercial elite of the Colonies revolted against being forced into an inferior role in the emerging Atlantic economy. This is one of the things that gave the American Revolution its exceptionally bourgeois character as revolutions go, with bewigged Founding Fathers rather than the usual unshaven revolutionary mobs. It is no accident that after Independence, a tariff was the very second bill signed by President Washington. It is also no accident that the Constitution — which notoriously does not authorize a great many things our government does today — explicitly does give Congress the authority “to regulate commerce with foreign nations.” (Article I, Section 8.) This fact drives flag-draped libertarians crazy, but there it is. Protectionism’s first American theorist was Alexander Hamilton — the man on the $10 bill, the first Treasury Secretary, and America’s first technocrat . As aide-de-camp to General Washington during the Revolution, he had seen the U.S. nearly lose due to lack of capacity to manufacture weapons. (France rescued us with 80,000 muskets and other war materiel.) He worried that Britain’s lead in manufacturing would remain entrenched, condemning the United States to being a producer of agricultural products and raw materials. In modern terms, a banana republic. As he put it in 1791: The superiority antecedently enjoyed by nations who have preoccupied and perfected a branch of industry, constitutes a more formidable obstacle than either of those which have been mentioned, to the introduction of the same branch into a country in which it did not before exist. To maintain, between the recent establishments of one country, and the long-matured establishments of another country, a competition upon equal terms, both as to quality and price, is, in most cases, impracticable. The disparity, in the one, or in the other, or in both, must necessarily be so considerable, as to forbid a successful rivalship, without the extraordinary aid and protection of government. Hamilton’s policies came down to about a dozen key measures. In his own words: 1. “Protecting duties.” (Tariffs.) 2. “Prohibition of rival articles or duties equivalent to prohibitions.” (Outright import bans.) 3. “Prohibition of the exportation of the materials of manufactures.” (Export bans on raw materials needed for industrialization here at home.) 4. “Pecuniary bounties.” (Export subsidies, like those provided today by the Export-Import Bank and other programs.) 5. “Premiums.” (Subsidies for key innovations. Today, we would call them research and development tax credits.) 6. “The exemption of the materials of manufactures from duty.” (Import liberalization for industrial inputs, so some other country can be the raw materials exporter and we can industrialize.) 7. “Drawbacks of the duties which are imposed on the materials of manufactures.” (Same idea, by means of tax rebates.) 8. “The encouragement of new inventions and discoveries at home, .and of the introduction into the United States of such as may have been made in other countries; particularly those, which relate to machinery.” (Prizes for inventions and, more importantly, patents.) 9. “Judicious regulations for the inspection of manufactured commodities.” (Regulation of product standards, as the USDA and FDA do today.) 10. “The facilitating of pecuniary remittances from place to place.” (A sophisticated financial system.) 11. “The facilitating of the transportation of commodities.” (Good infrastructure.) Hamilton set forth his case in his Report on Manufactures , submitted to Congress in 1791. Perhaps the most startling thing about his suggested policies is how modern they are: few people realize that the R&D tax credit was first proposed in 1791! Due in large part to the domination of Congress by Southern planters, who favored free trade, Hamilton’s policies were not all adopted right away. It took the War of 1812, which created a surge of anti-British feeling, disrupted normal trade, and drastically increased the government’s need for revenue, to push America firmly into the protectionist camp. But when war broke out, Congress immediately doubled the tariff to an average of 25 percent. After the war, British manufacturers undertook one of the world’s first cases of predatory dumping, whose purpose was, in the words of one Member of Parliament, to “stifle in the cradle, those rising manufactures in the United States, which the war had forced into existence.” In reaction, the American industrial interests that had blossomed because of the tariff lobbied to keep it, and had it raised to 35 percent in 1816. The public approved, and by 1820, America’s average tariff was up to 40 percent. Fast-forward a few years. Gloss over a number of important tariff-related political struggles, such as the South Carolina Nullification Crisis of 1832, one of the precursors of the Civil War, in which South Carolina tried to reject a federal tariff. There was a brief free trade episode starting in 1846, coinciding with the aforementioned zenith of classical liberalism in Europe, during which America’s tariffs were lowered. But this was followed by a series of recessions, ending in the Panic of 1857, which brought demands for a higher tariff so intense that President James Buchanan–the last free-trade president for two generations–gave in and signed one two days before Abraham Lincoln took office in 1861. Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, and most of the other great names from American history were all protectionists. Protectionism was, in fact, Lincoln’s number two issue after slavery. As he put it in 1847, Give us a protective tariff, and we will have the greatest nation on earth . Revealingly, the only major exception to America’s protectionist consensus was the antebellum South, because free trade is the ideal policy for a nations that actually wants to be an agricultural slave state. An economy founded on slave-based agriculture has no hope of achieving competitive advantage in anything else, as slaves have proven unsuitable for industrialization since the time of Ancient Rome. Because the tariff was the main source of federal revenue in those pre-income tax days, the South also bore a disproportionate share of the nation’s tax burden. No wonder it was in favor of free trade–which the Confederate constitution eventually mandated. Back when protectionism was American policy, it enjoyed a broad popular consensus. Only the left- and right-wing extremists of the day dissented. Extreme right wing Social Darwinists like William Graham Sumner–who published a fuming book in 1885 entitled Protectionism, the Ism That Teaches That Waste Makes Wealth –saw protectionism as a subsidy for the incompetent and an interference with the divine justice of the free market and the survival of the fittest. At the other extreme, Karl Marx, who was alive in those days and keenly watching American capitalism, wanted to see American capitalism break down and therefore favored free trade for its destructive potential. Unfortunately for Marx, this was the golden age of American industry, when America’s economic performance surpassed the rest of the world by the greatest margin. It was the era in which the U.S. transformed itself from a promising mostly agricultural backwater, pupil at the knee of European industry, into the greatest economic power in the history of the world. What happened to America’s long protectionist tradition? In the end, America only seriously turned away from protectionism as a Cold War gambit to prop up capitalist economies abroad and tie them to the U.S. Geopolitics trumped domestic economics. Ironically, our old protectionist playbook for economic development is the same one, in many respects, that China and other nations are using against the United States today. Back when we were the ascending economic power in the late 19th century, it was Britain that complained about “unfair trade!” They were right, of course–but given that nobody forced free trade upon them, it was their own fault. Today, having forgotten our own history, we can’t even recognize the game being played against us, let alone figure out how to counter it. We will continue to pay a high price in lost jobs and declining industries until we wise up. Ian Fletcher is the author of Free Trade Doesn’t Work: What Should Replace It and Why (USBIC, 2010, $24.95) An Adjunct Fellow at the San Francisco office of the U.S. Business and Industry Council , a Washington think tank founded in 1933, he was previously an economist in private practice, mostly serving hedge funds and private equity firms. He may be contacted at ian.fletcher@usbic.net .

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Robert Diamond Named New Barclays CEO

September 7, 2010

LONDON — Robert E. Diamond Jr., who built Barclays PLC into a global powerhouse in investment banking and has been criticized for his lavish pay, will become chief executive next year, the company announced Tuesday. Diamond, branded “the unacceptable face of banking” by a former government minister, will succeed John Varley, who guided Barclays through the credit crisis without resorting to a government bailout. Diamond will take over as CEO on March 31 after 14 years with the company. The 59-year-old American’s rise comes as governments review regulation, including a possibly momentous move in Britain to force lenders to divorce investment banking from retail operations. At home, Barclays may also feel pressure from the government’s austerity drive which will shrink public spending. Following its acquisition of Lehman Brothers’ U.S. operations, Barclays has become heavily dependent on the investment banking activity which is now Diamond’s domain. Barclays Capital now commands 60 percent of the company’s capital needs, a share that may increase due to regulatory changes, yet is likely to be less profitable than the Barclays retail side, Evolution Securities said in a research note. Diamond’s salary will be 1.35 million pounds ($2.08 million) with bonuses of up to 250 percent of that figure. The bank said it also intended to award a long term, performance-based share incentive of 500 percent of base salary in 2011. Diamond was paid 250,000 pounds last year and waived his bonus, but he reportedly also gained 26.8 million pounds from his shares in Barclays Global Investors when it was sold to Blackrock fund manages. Peter Mandelson, the business secretary in Britain’s previous government, said in an interview with The Times in April that Diamond hadn’t earned the money, “he has done so by deal-making and shuffling paper around.” “That to me is the unacceptable face of banking,” Mandelson said. Barclays’ chairman Marcus Agius told reporters in a conference call that Diamond’s compensation was “well benchmarked” against the pay of other chief executives of major banks, but the pay package may be politically sensitive. “In times of austerity, industry compensation continues to sit uncomfortably with politicians and the electorate, while questions over broader European banking strength have resurfaced,” said Keith Bowman, analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers. Still, experts say Diamond is highly respected in the industry for his development of the investment banking operations over 14 years. “We believe his appointment as group CEO reflects progress delivered at BarCap and the importance of the investment banking operations in the group’s future strategy,” said Danny Clarke, analyst at Shore Capital. Under Varley’s leadership, Barclays secured private investment in the Middle East to shore up its capital position during the credit crisis, and he led Barclays’ move to expand its investment banking business by acquiring the U.S. operations of Lehman Brothers following its collapse. Varley said it was his intention when he took the top job seven years ago that he would move on at age 55, a milestone he reaches in April. He will continue as a special adviser on regulatory matters for another six months beyond his retirement date. Jerry del Missier and Rich Ricci will become co-chief executives of Barclays Capital, effective October 1. Barclays shares were down 3.14 percent at 312.8 pence in midmorning trading on the London Stock Exchange. “Barclays is one of the very few stocks in our universe of banks that shows downside,” said Arturo De Frias, analyst at Evolution Securities, who rates the bank’s shares as “sell.” He said that in the last three months, Barclays stock has rise less than half as much as the wider banking sector. “Given the considerable pressures on investment banking returns, we expect this underperformance to continue.”

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Experts See Trouble Ahead For Developed World

September 4, 2010

CERNOBBIO, Italy — Is the global economy out of the woods? Two years after near-meltdown, with the U.S. looking sluggish, equity markets groggy and Europeans fighting a debt crisis, experts gathered in Italy offered a generally gloomy outlook – especially for the United States and much of the industrialized world. The doomsayers were led by New York University economist Nouriel Roubini, who warned in booming tones that “there is a significant risk of a double-dip recession in the United States” as well as in Japan and many European countries. Some of the assembled experts and leaders at the annual Ambrosetti Forum on the shores of Lake Como were somewhat more upbeat: economist Edwin Truman, a senior fellow of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, predicted that “the most likely global outlook is subpar growth.” But most appeared to agree on a sobering array of basic problems standing in the way of true recovery: _ Many of the growth drivers in place since the collapse of Lehman Brothers are winding up or have ended, including not only the massive stimulus spending but tax breaks, schemes such as the “cash for clunkers” program and – for some countries like Russia – high commodity prices. _ The stimulus deemed necessary to jump-start moribund economies soon causes deficits and debt, upsetting the markets enough to spur austerity – which undermines growth. _ Most of the world’s growth stems from a developing world led by China – which is so dependent on exports that it needs the West to continue to buy, and so will suffer if recovery in the rich world proves short-lived. _ Europe continues to lose competitiveness partly because of the euro, which – for all the fretting over its dip earlier this year at the height of the Greek debt crisis – remains high in purchasing price parity terms versus the U.S. dollar. _ The sector that is widely seen as the spark of the global recession – U.S. real estate – has not recovered, with house-buying flat and the mortgage market, with its related financial instruments, essentially still in ruins. _ The jobs picture is not improving and in parts of the developed world – such as Spain, with some 20 percent unemployment – it is disastrous. The warnings come amid mixed news on indicators. The European Central Bank raised its growth projections Thursday and its president, Jean-Claude Trichet, said recession was “not in the cards.” But the bank said the situation remained uncertain and that it would keep measures to supply banks with additional credit in place until the end of the year. The U.S. unemployment rate rose in August for the first time in four months as hiring by private employers proved insufficient to keep pace with a large increase in the number of people looking for work. The Labor Department said Friday that companies did add a net total 67,000 new jobs last month, down from July’s upwardly revised total of 107,000. But more than a half-million Americans resumed their job searches, which drove up the jobless rate to 9.6 percent from 9.5 percent in July – a figure above the rate in Britain and Germany. “I see a very weak labor market,” said Roubini, who gained celebrity for predicting the global collapse of 2008 when others were still celebrating the boom times. He noted noting unemployment is close to 10 percent and almost 17 percent when including discouraged workers or partially employed ones. He puts the chance of recession at 40 percent or more – a position he has staked in recent weeks – and said even weak growth would still feel like a recession. “The U.S. has to create 150,000 every month in the private sector just to stabilize the rate and prevent it from rising,” he said. “We’d have to create 300,000 jobs every month for the next three years just to bring back the level of employment to before this recession started,” Roubini said. “Nobody … believes the U.S. is going to create any time any amount of jobs like that,” he said. And even that wouldn’t be enough when taking into account the young people entering the labor market, he said. Harvard University historian Niall Ferguson noted that since 2001 the United States has seen its debt-to-GDP ratio double to 66 percent and that it may well be headed toward the danger zone of 100 percent. “This is a completely unsustainable fiscal policy,” said Ferguson. “Pretty soon the U.S. will be spending more on debt service than national security. … That’s a tipping point for any global power.” Americans “just have to go down in their living standards” after years in which their living standards soared in part based on foreign credit which is no longer there,” said University of Munich economics professor Hans-Werner Sinn. Jacob Frenkel, Chairman of JP Morgan Chase International, urged the United States to rein in entitlements as part of a “political deal” that recognizes reality. Chairing a panel, CNBC anchor Maria Bartiromo drew laughs by challenging the scowling Roubini to come up with “any good news.” He offered that “emerging economies have high potential growth.” But even that comes with a caveat: Roubini warned that world growth leader China was too dependent on exports to the struggling West and predicted that within a year its economic growth will be overtaken by India, a huge nation much more reliant on its domestic market for development. The leading Chinese delegate to the forum, Cheng Siwei, seemed to agree with the criticism. “We must change our investment pattern from investment driven to relying more on domestic consumption,” said Cheng, a former top Chinese official who chairs the China Soft-Science Research Society among other positions. What about Greece, whose near-default four months ago rattled the nerves of investors around the globe? “Greece will not make it,” said Sinn. He said the world can either subsidize Athens indefinitely, force a degree of austerity that actually risks “civil war,” or – in what he suggested was the least bad option – encourage Greece to restore its drachma currency despite the domestic banking collapse that could well result. Sinn noted that bond spreads – the difference between the cost of borrowing for troubled countries such as Greece and solid ones such as Germany – have swiftly returned to the startling levels that preceded the Greek bailout in May. Truman ended his remarks on a high note, noting that in recent quarters’ “U.S. productivity increase has been significant.” In the second recent quarter, productivity dropped 1.8 percent. But higher productivity, while good for companies’ bottom lines, is also a reflection of the stagnant labor market and the shrinkage of payrolls as firms hope to produce as much as before with fewer and more productive staff. In perhaps an illustration of that psychology, several hundred business leaders at the forum were asked for their projections on their own companies’ prospects. Voting electronically, some 70 percent predicted a rise in turnover by the end of 2010 and almost half predicted a rise in their firms’ investment. But less than a third saw a chance for new hiring; almost half saw no change – and about a quarter predicted even more reductions.

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Firerush Ventures: Tony Blair Starts His Own Investment Firm

August 24, 2010

Tony Blair, the U.K. prime minister from 1997 to 2007, has started an investment firm, regulatory filings show. The London-based company is registered under the name Firerush Ventures No. 3 LP, is authorized by the Britain’s Financial Services Authority, and has six employees, according to an FSA filing.

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Max Keiser: France Tries to Reduce Debt by Increasing Debt

July 30, 2010

To reduce debt, France has announced the sale of State assets. Paradoxically, these sales will achieve the opposite effect and increase the overall indebtedness of France. Since any buyer of these assets will do so with borrowed money and the money they borrow will come from the over-indebted banking system that had to be recently bailed out by the State. In other words, the loans used to make the asset purchases will end up right back on the French government’s balance sheet. The same ricochet debt accumulation is playing out in most of the industrialized world as countries look for ways to cut debts after the bailouts of 2009 have failed to generate any inflation, wage growth or pick up in GDP. The problem is lack of transparency. The banks and their proxy, the various governments who serve them around the world, need to have a thorough accounting of all the debts held on their balance sheets. Some suspect there is another 50 trillion in bad debts held off the balance sheets of banks and governments yet to be disclosed. A few weeks ago, Britain announced a package of austerity measures to address the country’s 800 billion pound debt problem. The banks and government followed this up with an announcement of a ‘discovery’ of five trillion pounds of debt they had overlooked (equaling 500% of GDP). The government in Britain says they will be selling assets to pay down debt. Since no one has cash to pay for these assets, the loans needed to make the purchases will come from the State owned banks and the debts will end up where they came from; but bigger, since the bankers in the UK involved in the deals will pad the transaction with fees that end up increasing the debt (and their bonuses). Meanwhile, the Bank of England will keep interest rates near zero so that any increase in the debts won’t incur any noticeable increase in debt service costs. Until such time as it does. As long as interest rates stay near zero the debt expansion cycle — masked as asset sales — will continue to grow and the interest costs associated with these debts will continue to make up a greater percentage of GDP. Naturally, the government’s plan to pay the additional interest cost is to borrow more money.

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Tony Hayward Replacement? BP Says ‘No Final Decision’

July 26, 2010

LONDON (Associated Press) – BP PLC said Monday that “no final decision” has been made about management changes, which reportedly include the departure of Tony Hayward as chief executive in an effort to mend the company’s image after the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. The oil company said its board would meet Monday evening, a day before it announces earnings for the second quarter. “BP notes the press speculation over the weekend regarding potential changes to management and the charge for the costs of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. BP confirms that no final decision has been made on these matters,” the company said in a statement to the London Stock Exchange. Shares were up 2.2 percent at 407.6 pence ($6.31) in early trading in London. British media reported over the weekend that Hayward was negotiating the terms of his departure ahead of its second quarter results announcement on Tuesday. A U.S. government official also said on condition of anonymity that Hayward is on his way out as CEO. However, the Financial Times reported Monday that he was likely to stay on for two more months while BP continues work on drilling relief wells, seen as the permanent solution to the leak. The BP board would have to approve a change in company leadership. Citing unidentified sources, the BBC and Britain’s Sunday Telegraph said detailed talks regarding Hayward’s future had taken place over the weekend. Hayward, 53, had become a lightning rod for outrage in the United States about the spill which started on April 20 with an explosion and fire on the Deepwater Horizon rig. Eleven workers died in the disaster. Hayward had assumed a high-profile role as the face of BP in responding to the spill. His comment that he was eager to resolve the incident “so that I can have my life back” antagonized his critics in the United States. Robert Dudley, currently heading the effort to clean up the Gulf Coast, figured prominently in speculation about Hayward’s likely successor. Dudley is currently BP’s managing director, and grew up partly in Hattiesburg, Mississippi. He spent 20 years at Amoco Corp., which merged with BP in 1998, and lost out to Hayward on the CEO’s slot three years ago. He took over from Hayward as the point man on the cleanup in June. Last week, BP said the cost of dealing with the spill had reached nearly $4 billion, but that it was too early to quantify the eventual total cost. Hayward joined BP in 1982 as a geologist, and currently makes 1.045 million pounds (US$1.6 million) a year as the company’s head, according to their annual report. In 2009, he received a performance bonus of more than 2 million pounds plus other remuneration, bringing his total pay package to over 4 million pounds. BP is the process of selling assets to raise $10 billion toward a $20 billion fund that will finance the clean-up of the mess in the Gulf. BP announced last week that it had sold properties in the United States, Canada and Egypt to Apache Corp. for $7 billion. Under pressure from President Barack Obama, BP has also announced that it will pay no more dividends to shareholders this year.

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Diane Francis: Market Monkeys Guarding Bananas Again

July 12, 2010

The tale of the tipsy oil trader in 2009 who went on a binge of drinking and manipulating the world’s oil market captured headlines as an amusing story when he was recently punished by British authorities. But his story illustrates how vulnerable the world’s financial system remains. Stephen Perkins, the 34-year-old trader, was fined and kicked out of the business for five years by Britain’s Financial Services Authority early this month. But the affair, plus the still-mysterious $1-trillion “flash crash” of May 6, which resulted in a temporary stock market dive, points out that access to the world’s digital trading grid is not properly monitored. Perkins had worked since 1998 for the world’s largest oil trader, PMV Oil Futures Ltd. in London. In late June 2009, he got drunk at a golf tournament, then continued to binge at home all night as he bought and sold hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of oil contracts. His overnight trading represented 17 times the normal amount and he singlehandedly increased the price of oil by US$2 a barrel to US$73.50 a barrel. It doesn’t sound like much but he established a new high up to that point in spring 2009. His employer called him at home the next day to ask who his client was, after he committed US$600 million without so much as a form filled in. He told them he had a client and when they discovered shortly after that he didn’t, and had been drunk, he was fired and security officials were called. His offense was defined as “market abuse”. His employer was not fined at all because it had lost US$10 million unwinding the trades and convinced authorities that it was a “victim of unauthorized trading.” The point is that PMV was responsible for whoever traded under their banner, or should have been. So are other financial firms who do not have safeguards and therefore permit access by the irresponsible to trading privileges. PMV’s failure to police and limit its traders, in or out of the office, to the world’s trading grid should have been enough to take away its license for good, if for no other reason than to set an example that would frighten others into protecting the world’s financial system. The probe into the “flash crash” has yet to report the cause, but whatever it is will provide another example that the system is dangerously unpoliced and that manipulative, or otherwise errant, behavior is unchecked. FSA made no criticism of PVM, nor did other regulators around the world. This constitutes a regulatory lapse which undermines the integrity of markets themselves, prices and could damage the global economy once again or help unscrupulous players enrich themselves at the expense of others. Much attention is devoted to preventing hacking into the world’s financial systems. The case of the tipsy trader exposes the fact that the greatest danger may not lie outside, but within an industry that doesn’t police itself properly. This appeared in the Financial Post

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Diane Francis: Market Monkeys Guarding Bananas Again

July 12, 2010

The tale of the tipsy oil trader in 2009 who went on a binge of drinking and manipulating the world’s oil market captured headlines as an amusing story when he was recently punished by British authorities. But his story illustrates how vulnerable the world’s financial system remains. Stephen Perkins, the 34-year-old trader, was fined and kicked out of the business for five years by Britain’s Financial Services Authority early this month. But the affair, plus the still-mysterious $1-trillion “flash crash” of May 6, which resulted in a temporary stock market dive, points out that access to the world’s digital trading grid is not properly monitored. Perkins had worked since 1998 for the world’s largest oil trader, PMV Oil Futures Ltd. in London. In late June 2009, he got drunk at a golf tournament, then continued to binge at home all night as he bought and sold hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of oil contracts. His overnight trading represented 17 times the normal amount and he singlehandedly increased the price of oil by US$2 a barrel to US$73.50 a barrel. It doesn’t sound like much but he established a new high up to that point in spring 2009. His employer called him at home the next day to ask who his client was, after he committed US$600 million without so much as a form filled in. He told them he had a client and when they discovered shortly after that he didn’t, and had been drunk, he was fired and security officials were called. His offense was defined as “market abuse”. His employer was not fined at all because it had lost US$10 million unwinding the trades and convinced authorities that it was a “victim of unauthorized trading.” The point is that PMV was responsible for whoever traded under their banner, or should have been. So are other financial firms who do not have safeguards and therefore permit access by the irresponsible to trading privileges. PMV’s failure to police and limit its traders, in or out of the office, to the world’s trading grid should have been enough to take away its license for good, if for no other reason than to set an example that would frighten others into protecting the world’s financial system. The probe into the “flash crash” has yet to report the cause, but whatever it is will provide another example that the system is dangerously unpoliced and that manipulative, or otherwise errant, behavior is unchecked. FSA made no criticism of PVM, nor did other regulators around the world. This constitutes a regulatory lapse which undermines the integrity of markets themselves, prices and could damage the global economy once again or help unscrupulous players enrich themselves at the expense of others. Much attention is devoted to preventing hacking into the world’s financial systems. The case of the tipsy trader exposes the fact that the greatest danger may not lie outside, but within an industry that doesn’t police itself properly. This appeared in the Financial Post

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China’s AgBank IPO Raises $19.2 Billion In Possibly The Biggest IPO Ever

July 6, 2010

NEW YORK – The Agricultural Bank of China’s initial public offering has raised more than $19 billion in what could turn out to be the largest IPO ever. The last of China’s big four state-owned banks to go public, AgBank is selling 25.41 billion shares in Hong Kong and 22.24 billion shares in Shanghai. Based on Tuesday’s pricing, the rural lender would raise about $19.23 billion, according to a person familiar with the deal. The person requested anonymity because details of the IPO have not yet been released. If underwriters buy up about $2.89 billion more shares to sell to investors, the dual-listing deal could raise $22.12 billion – the most funds ever for an IPO. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China raised $21.9 billion in its October 2006 IPO. Original forecasts had put AgBank’s proceeds at a whopping $30 billion. But investors appeared unprepared to pay that much for shares in a bank whose profitability is viewed as weaker than its urban-focused competitors. Mainland Chinese shares have slumped in recent weeks on worries that the huge IPO may overwhelm demand, pulling prices lower. The global IPO market also has suffered this summer as stock markets tumbled around the world and uncertainty over the economic recovery increased. In Hong Kong, shares priced for HK$3.20 each (41 cents), the midpoint of the expected range, the person said. In Shanghai, shares priced for 2.68 yuan (40 cents), the top of the expected range, the person added. Proceeds would total HK$81.31 billion ($10.44 billion) in Hong Kong and 59.58 billion yuan ($8.79 billion) in Shanghai. The bank said in its Hong Kong prospectus that major foreign investors in the Hong Kong offering include Qatar Investment Authority ($2.8 billion), Kuwait Investment Authority ($800 million), Britain’s Standard Chartered Bank ($500 million), Dutch bank Radobank Nederland ($250 million), Australia’s Seven Group Holdings Ltd. ($250 million) and Singapore’s Temasek Holdings ($200 million).

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Eric Margolis: The World’s Biggest Debtor Urges More Debt

July 5, 2010

Broken store windows have been repaired, burned out cars and debris removed. Security barriers that turned much of downtown Toronto into a fortress are gone, and so has a small army of police and security agents. The hooligans have decamped. To everyone’s relief, the G8/G20 economic summit held in Toronto and a lake resort two hours north is over. An army of police and bands of rioters have been replaced by one million visitors feting Toronto’s annual Gay Pride extravaganza, the world’s largest gay jamboree. Watching this sober, conservative city dissolve into a gay bacchanal is always entertaining and surreal. Sustained immigration transformed “Toronto the Good” from a dour Scots Presbyterian backwater into the world’s most multicultural metropolis of over four million in which racial and ethnic groups co-exist in tranquility. Cantonese, Mandarin and Punjabi are now the most spoken languages in Canada after English and French. American visitors look with awe on Toronto’s clean streets, polite citizens, and services that are a model of good urban management. The late actor, Peter Ustinov, was once asked his opinion of Toronto. After a moment’s thought, he replied, “New York City — run by the Swiss.” The G8/G20 Toronto economic summit cost a staggering $1.1 billion, the most expensive economic meeting in anyone’s memory. That’s over $500 million per day. This gold-plated summit was designed to boost the standing of Canada’s unpopular, prime minister, Stephen Harper who runs a shaky minority government. When politicians get in trouble at home, they invariably turn to international affairs to burnish their faded images. Harper, a born-again Christian fundamentalist from Alberta is closely allied to Israel’s hard-right government and a disciple of George Bush. Harper is trying to give himself the image of a senior international statesman and basking in the glory of Canada’s banks that rode through the 2007-2008 financial crisis with flying colors because they sensibly refused to follow America’s financial debauchery and chicanery. These days, world leaders have become caught up in frantic rounds of unending political and economic meetings that are as exhausting as unproductive and costly. All the work for these meetings is accomplished in advance by staffs using phone, email, fax and video conferencing. The carefully-cultivated notion that presidents and prime ministers can fly into a city, meet around a large table for two days, and resolve thorny, complex economic and political issues is a public relations myth. Heads of states attend these summits for two good reasons unconnected to the actual agreements achieved. First, such meetings give voters the impression their leaders are actually making progress in dealing with the global financial/economic crisis. Activity is equated with achievement. Second, safety in numbers. It is by now perfectly clear that savage cuts must be made to the bloated budgets of the G8 industrial nations. The debt binge of the past decade left a mountain of dangerous obligations for private parties and governments. The time to “de-leverage,” as Wall Street calls puncturing the debt bubble, is at hand. The heart-stopping scare of 2007-2008, and risks that a global financial melt-down could again occur, are forcing most governments to slash spending. Many major European governments have announced plans for deep budget cuts to bring their debt loads down, it is hoped, to a sustainable 3% of GDP. This is causing voters to scream and, in the case of beleaguered Greece and Spain, demonstrate and riot. Politicians, caught between threats of financial melt-down and angry voters, seek the safety of numbers in these economic summits, adopting a common front they hope will convince voters that slashing spending is what everyone is doing. The International Monetary Fund used to perform this helpful mission by mandating spending cuts that politicians did not have the courage to enact. What the G8 really need, of course, is a short-term economic dictator who will slash spending and ignore ensuing protests. France offers a particularly interesting example of the current financial squeeze. While vowing budget cuts and adding only two years to its absurdly low retirement age of 58-60 years (or 50 in the case of certain professions), the Sarkozy government has been dithering and coy about making really painful cuts. France’s total private and government debt has reached over 300% of GDP. Spending cuts are urgent. But 55% of French workers are directly or indirectly employed by the government. For labor public unions, “l’etat, c’est nous.” As a result, cutting down these public sector unions that dominate and often terrorize France risks political suicide for whatever government holds power. In fact, public sector unions are now the biggest problem facing the G8. These unions became bloated during the days of credit addiction, when cheap loans created a bubble economy. Today, they can no longer be afforded, but their power remains immense. So G8 leaders are also trying to form a common front against these entrenched public unions that are undermining the economies in which they operate. Greece offers the most striking example. But the biggest of all the debtors, the United States, was notably understated at the Toronto conference. President Barack Obama flew in on Air Force One, a Boeing 747, at vast expense and much air pollution, to urge higher spending (and thus more debt) to stimulate economies. European nations rejected this plan by debt-addicted America. Treating the malady of too much debt with more debt does not make sense — except to the hopelessly addicted. The biggest fear at Toronto was that while Washington fulminates against China, it was doing nothing to curb its mammoth debt, and continuing to inflate the debt bubble, thus endangering the world economy. In the US, government debt per person, calculates the Economist , has soared from $16,000 per person in 2001 to $34,000 today. Government debt has reached a frightening 360% of US GDP. In Britain, government debt trebled in the same period. Britain’s new Tory government has announced plans to slash some $9 billion of spending. But as the US economy continues to stumble, and risk another fall back into severe recession, President Obama could not summon the political courage or Congressional votes to substantially cut government spending or to curtail the parasitic drain on the economy of America’s bloated financial industry which has become the real power in Washington. Obama failed to cut America’s gigantic, trillion-dollar military budget, which represents close to 50% of total global military spending. Instead, he increased it. The U.S. is financing its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (now costing $7 billion monthly), and growing military operations in Pakistan and Yemen, on borrowed money, leaving the bill for the next generation of unlucky taxpayers. Add another $33 billion this year for Obama’s Afghan “surge.” A nation addicted to financial gambling and war will have a very hard time bringing itself back to fiscal reality. The world’s battered economy can’t be healed until its biggest debtor reforms its ways — but there is no sign this will happen anytime soon.

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Cost Of The Queen: Less Than $1 Per Person A Year

July 5, 2010

LONDON — Like millions of her subjects, Queen Elizabeth II is going to have to make do and mend — cutting spending and putting off palace repairs as royal finances are squeezed by Britain’s budget crisis. Accounts published Monday by Buckingham Palace reveal the total public cost of supporting the monarchy was 38.2 million pounds ($57.8 million) in the year to March 31, the equivalent of 62 pence (94 cents) per person. The total is more than 3 million pounds less than in 2008-2009. Britain’s public sector is facing cuts as the government tries to eliminate a record deficit, and Alan Reid, Keeper of the Privy Purse, said the royal household “is acutely aware of the difficult economic climate” and will be cutting costs and putting off essential maintenance. The 84-year-old queen receives 7.9 million pounds of public money each year to pay for staff and other costs, an amount that has not risen in 20 years. The accounts show also drew an extra 6.5 million pounds from a reserve fund built up over the years by saving portions of her allocated budget. If the queen continues to use money from her reserve at the current rate, the fund will run out by 2012 – the year she celebrates her 60th year on the throne. She had been expected to ask for an increase in basic funding this year, but the government – which is bringing in deep cuts to welfare payments and spending programs – imposed a freeze until at least next year. The accounts show the government spent more than 15 million pounds on the upkeep of royal residences including Buckingham Palace and Windsor Castle, and almost 4 million pounds on royal travel. Both amounts were down from the previous year. Reid said the royal household would be cutting its property services budget by half a million pounds, “implementing a head count freeze and reviewing every vacancy to see if we can avoid replacement.” He said “the necessary cuts in public expenditure will have an impact on the backlog of essential maintenance which it is hoped can be addressed in the longer term.” “In the meantime, the household is continuing to pursue opportunities to reduce costs and generate income from the estate’s assets, including commercial lettings and management charges,” he said. News of the royal cost-cutting did not satisfy the anti-monarchy group Republic, which held a protest outside Buckingham Palace on Monday. Campaign manager Graham Smith said Britain’s monarchy was the most expensive in Europe, and “continues to waste many millions of pounds of taxpayers’ money when front line services are being threatened.” “It’s time to slash the budgets without reservation or sentiment,” he said. ___ Online: http://www.royal.gov.uk/LatestNewsandDiary/AnnualFinancialReports/Annualfinancialreports.aspx

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U.S. G20 Message: Stimulus Money Is Vital To Economic Recovery, Don’t Pull Back Yet

June 26, 2010

TORONTO — World leaders must work together to make sure the global recovery stays on track, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Saturday. Geithner made his remarks as President Barack Obama has warned his counterparts from the Group of 20 nations to not reel in measures to stimulate their economies too quickly. The United States fears doing so could endanger the global recovery. Nations like Germany, Britain and others are shifting their focus on cutting deficits – especially in the wake of Greece’s debt crisis, which rattled world markets. Asked if the global economy could slip back into another “double dip” recession, Geithner said the answer to that question hinges on decisions made by world leaders. “It is within the capacity of the people who are going to be in those rooms together in the next few days to avoid that outcome,” he said. But Geithner’s insistence that nations continue stimulus spending to avoid another global recession w as not bolstered by America’s own actions at home . On Thursday, Senate Republicans defeated a jobs bill that included unemployment extensions, provisions for the elderly and poor, state funding for medicaid, and various tax cuts. Republicans threatened to filibuster the legislation and because Democrats were short of the 60 votes needed to overcome the legislative block, they did not vote on the bill. But Geithner did not mention the failed stimulus bill at home as he told politicians from the world’s largest economies that global economic recovery depended upon government spending. Geithner told the Toronto audience that one of the mistakes made in the 1930s was that countries pulled back their recovery efforts too soon, prolonging the Great Depression, he said. He said the United States doesn’t want to see that happen again. “What we want to do is continue to emphasize that we are going to avoid that mistake,” he said. “It’s only been a year since the world economy stopped collapsing … it will take some time to heal.” Although the world economy has recovered from the worst financial and economic crisis since the 1930s, many challenges remain, Geithner said. “The scars of this crisis are still with us,” Geithner told reporters. “If the world economy is to expand at its potential, if growth is going to be sustainable in the future, then we need to act together to strengthen the recovery and finish the job of repairing the damage of the crisis.”

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European Stocks Climb for Fourth Week as Crisis Concerns Wane BSkyB Rises

June 18, 2010

By Adam Haigh June 19 (Bloomberg) — European stocks rose for a fourth week as concern about the region’s sovereign debt crisis waned. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Societe Generale SA led a rally among bank shares. British Sky Broadcasting Plc soared 19 percent after Rupert Murdoch ’s News Corp. offered to buy the rest of the company for 7.8 billion pounds ($11.5 billion). Nokia Oyj slumped 8.6 percent after cutting its forecasts. BP Plc tumbled for a record ninth week. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 2.4 percent to 255.5, the highest closing level since May 13 and the longest streak of weekly gains since April. The benchmark gauge has rebounded 10 percent from its 2010 low on May 25 after concern about levels of government debt in Europe pushed the index to its cheapest level relative to earnings in more than a year. “Global investors are feeling more hopeful about the outlook for Europe’s stocks,” said Gary Baker , an equity strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research in London. “Bad news is priced in.” He forecasts the Stoxx 600 to reach 300 by the end of 2010, a 17 percent increase from this week’s close. A Spanish bond auction June 17 eased concern that the nation will struggle to finance looming debt maturities. Spain sold 3.5 billion euros ($4.3 billion) of 10-year and 30-year bonds, the maximum set for the auction. Stress Tests Britain posted a smaller fiscal deficit in May than economists forecast as growth lifted tax receipts, providing a boost for finance minister George Osborne before his June 22 budget. European Union leaders agreed June 17 to disclose how banks perform on stress tests, seeking to show investors that the financial system can withstand shocks. The decision came after Spanish officials unexpectedly pledged to publish results on individual banks, the first European government to do so. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said broader regional stress tests will be published in the second half of July “at the latest.” Still, the number of investors forecasting the global economy to strengthen in the next 12 months fell, according to a BofA Merrill Lynch survey of portfolio managers who together manage about $606 billion. Money managers increased their reserves of cash in June to the highest level in more than a year and continued to reduce their holdings in global equities to levels not seen since early 2009, the survey showed. Stimulus Dose “The markets are really worried about economic growth,” said Trevor Greetham , the head of asset allocation at Fidelity International in London. By the end of the year “central banks will be back peddling. We’ll need another dosing” of stimulus, he said at a press briefing to reporters in London June 15. Banks posted the biggest gains among the 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600, climbing 6 percent. Royal Bank of Scotland, Britain’s biggest government-owned bank, advanced 11 percent. Societe Generale, France’s second-largest bank by market value, rose 13 percent. BSkyB soared 19 percent. The company rejected News Corp.’s offer of 700 pence a share and said it would be prepared to support a bid of more than 800 pence a share. News Corp., owner of the Fox television network, already holds a 39 percent stake. Weir Group Plc surged 22 percent as the world’s biggest maker of pumps for the mining industry forecast second-half profit to be “significantly” greater than last year. Eiffage, Nokia Eiffage SA rose 13 percent after a unit it jointly controls said it’s buying out minority shareholders of a French toll-road operator, shoring up the unit’s finances. This is “a highly accretive transaction” for Eiffage, said Natixis analysts Gregoire Thibault and Rafic El Haddad , who lifted their earnings-per-share estimates for 2010 to 2012 by 16 percent per year on average and raised their rating on the stock to “neutral” from “reduce.” Nokia slumped 8.6 percent. The world’s biggest maker of mobile phones cuts its forecasts for sales and margins, hurt by competition in high-end phones from Apple Inc. ’s iPhone and devices based on Google Inc.’s Android software. Goldman Sachs slashed its price estimate for the shares by 27 percent to 7.70 euros and cut its 2010 earnings estimate by 25 percent to 47 cents per share. BP declined for a ninth week, losing 8.8 percent for the longest streak of weekly losses on record. The London-based oil producer battling with the worst oil spill in U.S. history abandoned a $10 billion-a-year dividend and created a $20 billion escrow fund to compensate victims. To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net

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European Stocks Climb for Fourth Week as Crisis Concerns Wane BSkyB Rises

June 18, 2010

By Adam Haigh June 19 (Bloomberg) — European stocks rose for a fourth week as concern about the region’s sovereign debt crisis waned. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Societe Generale SA led a rally among bank shares. British Sky Broadcasting Plc soared 19 percent after Rupert Murdoch ’s News Corp. offered to buy the rest of the company for 7.8 billion pounds ($11.5 billion). Nokia Oyj slumped 8.6 percent after cutting its forecasts. BP Plc tumbled for a record ninth week. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 2.4 percent to 255.5, the highest closing level since May 13 and the longest streak of weekly gains since April. The benchmark gauge has rebounded 10 percent from its 2010 low on May 25 after concern about levels of government debt in Europe pushed the index to its cheapest level relative to earnings in more than a year. “Global investors are feeling more hopeful about the outlook for Europe’s stocks,” said Gary Baker , an equity strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research in London. “Bad news is priced in.” He forecasts the Stoxx 600 to reach 300 by the end of 2010, a 17 percent increase from this week’s close. A Spanish bond auction June 17 eased concern that the nation will struggle to finance looming debt maturities. Spain sold 3.5 billion euros ($4.3 billion) of 10-year and 30-year bonds, the maximum set for the auction. Stress Tests Britain posted a smaller fiscal deficit in May than economists forecast as growth lifted tax receipts, providing a boost for finance minister George Osborne before his June 22 budget. European Union leaders agreed June 17 to disclose how banks perform on stress tests, seeking to show investors that the financial system can withstand shocks. The decision came after Spanish officials unexpectedly pledged to publish results on individual banks, the first European government to do so. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said broader regional stress tests will be published in the second half of July “at the latest.” Still, the number of investors forecasting the global economy to strengthen in the next 12 months fell, according to a BofA Merrill Lynch survey of portfolio managers who together manage about $606 billion. Money managers increased their reserves of cash in June to the highest level in more than a year and continued to reduce their holdings in global equities to levels not seen since early 2009, the survey showed. Stimulus Dose “The markets are really worried about economic growth,” said Trevor Greetham , the head of asset allocation at Fidelity International in London. By the end of the year “central banks will be back peddling. We’ll need another dosing” of stimulus, he said at a press briefing to reporters in London June 15. Banks posted the biggest gains among the 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600, climbing 6 percent. Royal Bank of Scotland, Britain’s biggest government-owned bank, advanced 11 percent. Societe Generale, France’s second-largest bank by market value, rose 13 percent. BSkyB soared 19 percent. The company rejected News Corp.’s offer of 700 pence a share and said it would be prepared to support a bid of more than 800 pence a share. News Corp., owner of the Fox television network, already holds a 39 percent stake. Weir Group Plc surged 22 percent as the world’s biggest maker of pumps for the mining industry forecast second-half profit to be “significantly” greater than last year. Eiffage, Nokia Eiffage SA rose 13 percent after a unit it jointly controls said it’s buying out minority shareholders of a French toll-road operator, shoring up the unit’s finances. This is “a highly accretive transaction” for Eiffage, said Natixis analysts Gregoire Thibault and Rafic El Haddad , who lifted their earnings-per-share estimates for 2010 to 2012 by 16 percent per year on average and raised their rating on the stock to “neutral” from “reduce.” Nokia slumped 8.6 percent. The world’s biggest maker of mobile phones cuts its forecasts for sales and margins, hurt by competition in high-end phones from Apple Inc. ’s iPhone and devices based on Google Inc.’s Android software. Goldman Sachs slashed its price estimate for the shares by 27 percent to 7.70 euros and cut its 2010 earnings estimate by 25 percent to 47 cents per share. BP declined for a ninth week, losing 8.8 percent for the longest streak of weekly losses on record. The London-based oil producer battling with the worst oil spill in U.S. history abandoned a $10 billion-a-year dividend and created a $20 billion escrow fund to compensate victims. To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net

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Obama’s Letter To G20 Urges World Leaders To Continue Stimulus

June 18, 2010

WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama is appealing to the world’s major economies not to waver in their efforts to support a sustained rebound from the near collapse of the global economic system in the fall of 2008. “We must act together to strengthen the recovery,” Obama said in his letter to other leaders of the Group of 20 major industrial countries, written in advance of next week’s summit meeting in Toronto. But Obama’s appeal for unity underscored a number of divisions that have developed between the major powers. Many European nations, rattled by the debt crisis that had engulfed Greece, have started to trim their own budget deficits while China has rejected calls by the United States to allow its currency to rise in value as a way to boost sales of American and other foreign products in China. Obama referred in an oblique way to those disagreements in the letter, avoiding mentioning other countries by name. “Our highest priority in Toronto must be to safeguard and strengthen the recovery,” he said in the letter, which the White House released on Friday. “We worked exceptionally hard to restore growth; we cannot let it falter or lose strength now.” Obama called on the other nations to “reaffirm our unity of purpose to provide the policy support necessary to keep economic growth strong.” The president noted that “significant weaknesses” linger among the major and developing economic powers. He told his summit partners “it is essential that we have a self-sustaining recovery that creates the good jobs that our people need.” The White House released a copy of the letter on Friday. In the letter, Obama said that the June 25-27 summit should also focus on efforts to stabilize public deficits in the “medium term,” a reference to the administration’s position that governments need to run huge deficits currently to provide the stimulus needed to ensure a sustained recovery but then move in future years to deficit reduction efforts. But several European nations including Germany, France and Britain are already moving to attack high deficits in an effort to calm global financial markets which have stumbled in recent weeks over concerns that Greece or other highly indebted nations could default on their loans. Obama is having a tough time making the argument for increased deficit spending at home as well. The Senate has blocked a scaled-down jobs bill with critics complaining that the $120 billion pricetag is still too high. In his letter to the G-20, Obama said: “I am committed to the restoration of fiscal sustainability in the United States and believe that all G-20 countries should put in place credible and growth-friendly plans to restore sustainable public finances.” “But it is critical that the timing and pace of consolidation in each economy suit the needs of the global economy, the momentum of private sector demand and national circumstances.” The recovery from recession in the United States has been erratic and uneven. In his letter, Obama also called on his G-20 partners to promote “balanced global demand” and said he remained concerned about the “continued heavy reliance on exports by some countries with already large external surpluses.” While not mentioning China by name, that comment was an obvious reference China’s trade surpluses and continued resistance to U.S. demands that it allow its currency, called the renminbi, to rise in value against the dollar. A stronger Chinese currency and a cheaper dollar would make U.S. goods more competitive in China and provide Chinese consumers with cheaper products. American manufacturers contend that China is manipulating the value of its currency to gain unfair trade advantages and some U.S. lawmakers are pushing legislation to impose stiff penalties on Chinese imports unless Beijing allows its currency to appreciate. White House spokeswoman Amy Brundage said Friday that the administration will review the status of a long-delayed report on China currency after the G-20 meeting. The report should have been released April 15, by law, but Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner delayed it to give more time for discussions with the Chinese. “We will take stock of where we are with the foreign exchange report after the G-20,” she said. The Obama administration is under heavy pressure from Congress to name China a currency manipulator, a designation that would trigger talks between the two countries and could ultimately lead to U.S. trade sanctions against China. There had been hopes that China would move on the issue before the Toronto summit but on Thursday Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang told reporters that “we believe it would be inappropriate to discuss the renminbi exchange rate issue in the context of the G-20 meeting.” Qin reiterated the government’s position that it would gradually reform its exchange rate policies at a timing of its choosing and not in response to pressure. ___ Associated Press writers Darlene Superville in Washington and Charles Hutzler in Beijing contributed to this report.

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Obama’s Letter To G20 Urges World Leaders To Continue Stimulus

June 18, 2010

WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama is appealing to the world’s major economies not to waver in their efforts to support a sustained rebound from the near collapse of the global economic system in the fall of 2008. “We must act together to strengthen the recovery,” Obama said in his letter to other leaders of the Group of 20 major industrial countries, written in advance of next week’s summit meeting in Toronto. But Obama’s appeal for unity underscored a number of divisions that have developed between the major powers. Many European nations, rattled by the debt crisis that had engulfed Greece, have started to trim their own budget deficits while China has rejected calls by the United States to allow its currency to rise in value as a way to boost sales of American and other foreign products in China. Obama referred in an oblique way to those disagreements in the letter, avoiding mentioning other countries by name. “Our highest priority in Toronto must be to safeguard and strengthen the recovery,” he said in the letter, which the White House released on Friday. “We worked exceptionally hard to restore growth; we cannot let it falter or lose strength now.” Obama called on the other nations to “reaffirm our unity of purpose to provide the policy support necessary to keep economic growth strong.” The president noted that “significant weaknesses” linger among the major and developing economic powers. He told his summit partners “it is essential that we have a self-sustaining recovery that creates the good jobs that our people need.” The White House released a copy of the letter on Friday. In the letter, Obama said that the June 25-27 summit should also focus on efforts to stabilize public deficits in the “medium term,” a reference to the administration’s position that governments need to run huge deficits currently to provide the stimulus needed to ensure a sustained recovery but then move in future years to deficit reduction efforts. But several European nations including Germany, France and Britain are already moving to attack high deficits in an effort to calm global financial markets which have stumbled in recent weeks over concerns that Greece or other highly indebted nations could default on their loans. Obama is having a tough time making the argument for increased deficit spending at home as well. The Senate has blocked a scaled-down jobs bill with critics complaining that the $120 billion pricetag is still too high. In his letter to the G-20, Obama said: “I am committed to the restoration of fiscal sustainability in the United States and believe that all G-20 countries should put in place credible and growth-friendly plans to restore sustainable public finances.” “But it is critical that the timing and pace of consolidation in each economy suit the needs of the global economy, the momentum of private sector demand and national circumstances.” The recovery from recession in the United States has been erratic and uneven. In his letter, Obama also called on his G-20 partners to promote “balanced global demand” and said he remained concerned about the “continued heavy reliance on exports by some countries with already large external surpluses.” While not mentioning China by name, that comment was an obvious reference China’s trade surpluses and continued resistance to U.S. demands that it allow its currency, called the renminbi, to rise in value against the dollar. A stronger Chinese currency and a cheaper dollar would make U.S. goods more competitive in China and provide Chinese consumers with cheaper products. American manufacturers contend that China is manipulating the value of its currency to gain unfair trade advantages and some U.S. lawmakers are pushing legislation to impose stiff penalties on Chinese imports unless Beijing allows its currency to appreciate. White House spokeswoman Amy Brundage said Friday that the administration will review the status of a long-delayed report on China currency after the G-20 meeting. The report should have been released April 15, by law, but Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner delayed it to give more time for discussions with the Chinese. “We will take stock of where we are with the foreign exchange report after the G-20,” she said. The Obama administration is under heavy pressure from Congress to name China a currency manipulator, a designation that would trigger talks between the two countries and could ultimately lead to U.S. trade sanctions against China. There had been hopes that China would move on the issue before the Toronto summit but on Thursday Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang told reporters that “we believe it would be inappropriate to discuss the renminbi exchange rate issue in the context of the G-20 meeting.” Qin reiterated the government’s position that it would gradually reform its exchange rate policies at a timing of its choosing and not in response to pressure. ___ Associated Press writers Darlene Superville in Washington and Charles Hutzler in Beijing contributed to this report.

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U.K. Budget Deficit Narrower Than Forecast as Growth Improves Tax Revenue

June 18, 2010

By Gonzalo Vina June 18 (Bloomberg) — Britain posted a smaller fiscal deficit in May than economists forecast as growth lifted tax receipts, providing a boost for finance minister George Osborne before his June 22 budget. The 16 billion-pound ($23.8 billion) shortfall compared with 17.4 billion pounds a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. The result was below the 18 billion-pound median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey . Osborne is set to outline the deepest spending cuts since at least the 1970s to tame a budget deficit of 11 percent of gross domestic product last fiscal year. U.K. government bond yields have fallen since Prime Minister David Cameron took office six weeks ago on expectations his coalition government will step up the pace of deficit reduction. “The figures are a bit better than expected,” said Philip Shaw, chief European economist at Investec Securities in London. “There are signs that the figures have turned but that doesn’t detract from the need for the big squeeze I am sure we are going to get next week.” The 10-year gilt yield has fallen 37 basis points since May 11 and was trading at 3.512 percent as of 9:37 a.m. in London, up 3 basis points from yesterday. The pound, which has lost 8 percent against the dollar this year, was 0.3 percent higher on the day at $1.4865. Osborne is under pressure from investors and ratings companies to deliver on his pledge to slash the deficit as the sovereign-debt crisis in the euro region escalates. Pressure for Cuts “I think the risk that this economy and the U.S. faces is that unless we get control of our debt burden we could be in line at some point as well,” former Bank of England policy maker DeAnne Julius said in a Bloomberg Television interview June 16. Current receipts rose 7.6 percent in May from a year earlier, boosted by a 19 percent increase in receipts of value- added tax, a 17.5 percent levy on sales of goods and services. Government spending climbed 7.3. percent, with spending on social benefits gaining 3.7 percent. In April, the deficit was 8.3 billion pounds rather than the 10 billion pounds initially reported. The revision was partly due to higher-than-expected receipts from a tax on banker bonuses. The levy, expected to raise 2 billion pounds, generated 2.5 billion pounds, the statistics office said. Revisions The deficit excluding financial-sector interventions in the fiscal year through April was 154.7 billion pounds, revised from 156.1 billion pounds. As a share of GDP, the shortfall was revised to 10.99 percent 11.1 percent. The looming deficit-cutting drive has cast a shadow over prospects for consumer spending as the economy emerges from its worst recession since World War II. Osborne has refused to rule out raising the VAT rate. A measure of cash entering and leaving the public sector showed an 12 billion-pound deficit in May compared with 19.1 billion pounds a year earlier. Economists predicted a 20.5 billion-pound shortfall, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Net debt climbed to 903 billion pounds, or 62.2 percent of GDP. Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander yesterday pledged to cut the deficit at a faster pace than the previous Labour government planned as he froze or axed projects worth more than 10 billion pounds. While the independent fiscal watchdog set up by Osborne predicts the overall deficit will be 4 percent lower over the next five years than the Treasury forecast in March, it says the structural hole has increased, meaning the new government has more to fill through spending cuts and tax rises. The deficit will be little changed at 155 billion pounds in the fiscal year that began in April, or 10.5 percent of GDP, the Office for Budget Responsibility said earlier this week. In the first two months of the fiscal year, the deficit was 24.3 billion pounds, down from 26.2 billion pounds a year earlier. To contact the reporter on this story: Gonzalo Vina in London at gvina@bloomberg.net .

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BSkyB Investors Vow Fight to Boost Murdoch’s Bid to At Least 800p a Share

June 18, 2010

By Jonathan Browning June 18 (Bloomberg) — Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp . says the 7.8 billion-pound ($11.6 billion) bid for British Sky Broadcasting Plc is “full and fair.” Investors and analysts say even a 14 percent increase would be the “bare minimum.” BSkyB, the U.K.’s biggest pay-TV operator, this week rejected the 700 pence a share offer and said it wanted at least 800p. Faced with pressure from News Corp. to buy the 61 percent it doesn’t already own, investors should fight for a higher bid, according to Singer Capital Markets analyst Johnathan Barrett . “The Murdochs share the same belief as we do, that there is significant cash flow to be generated from this company and that cash flow isn’t yet reflected in the price,” said David Stewart , chief executive officer at Odey Asset Management in London, which owns about 3 percent of BSkyB shares. BSkyB’s independent directors, led by Nicholas Ferguson , chairman of SVG Capital, said they may accept an offer of more than 800 pence a share. There is a “significant gap” between News Corp.’s proposal and the value of the company, Ferguson said this week. Analysts at Citigroup Inc., Investec, Macquarie Securities, Numis Securities, Sanford C. Bernstein and Singer Capital Markets named figures between 750 pence to 860 pence as a potentially acceptable price per share for shareholders. ‘Bare Minimum’ “Investors will stick to their guns on 800 pence,” said Barrett. “It very much is a bare minimum; I think we’d really want a chunk more than that.” News Corp.’s offer of 700p was 17 percent more than BSkyB’s closing price on June 14, the day before the bid was announced. The shares, which climbed as high as 1,660p in March 2000, closed at 699p yesterday. The value of News Corp.’s BSkyB holding has more than doubled since the London-based company’s initial public offering on Dec. 8, 1994. The shares have also outperformed those of News Corp., which dropped by about a fifth in the last five years. In contrast, BSkyB shares rose 18 percent, not including the gain after News Corp.’s offer. BSkyB said its free cash flow increased 17 percent to 310 million pounds in the nine months ended March 31. In contrast to News Corp’s “full and fair price,” BSkyB should be valued at a multiple of between 11 and 12 times the company’s estimated full-year earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization in 2011, Singer’s Barrett said. News Corp. would therefore need to bid between 785 and 860 pence, he said. Murdoch’s Strategy “It’s got a very high level of visibility, because of its subscription base,” he said. “You know there’s going to be growth next year already.” The bid for the remainder of BSkyB reflects Murdoch’s ambitions to generate more money from subscriptions at a time when many newspapers, magazines and TV shows are free online and films and music can easily be downloaded illegally. News Corp., which already charges for online access to The Wall Street Journal, will also begin charging for the websites of U.K. newspapers The Times and The Sunday Times this month. BSkyB will give its independent directors the final recommendation on the offer because four out of BSkyB’s 14 board members are linked to News Corp., including Chairman James Murdoch . A committee compromising the independent directors and the management will exercise “all powers of the board in relation to the possible offer and any matters” relevant to the proposal, the company said. ‘Opening Shots’ BSkyB’s valuation may stay the same while News Corp. seeks regulatory approval before a formal bid, said Guy Peddy , an analyst at Macquarie Securities in London. “We aren’t in an environment of bidding for any more football rights,” Peddy said. “We have a relatively clean window before any potential events come along that that can cause a recalculation of the valuation.” BSkyB agreed to pay 1.62 billion pounds last year to show most live Premier League soccer matches between 2010 and 2013. The European Union and Britain’s antitrust regulator may probe News Corp.’s proposed acquisition on antitrust concerns, while U.K. Business Secretary Vince Cable can also intervene on behalf of the public, lawyers have said. News Corp. said it will take at least six months to win clearance for the takeover. “These are just the opening shots of a negotiation that could take several months,” said Claudio Aspesi , an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein. “We think that News Corp. should be eager to do a deal as the current stake ownership does not provide either for efficient access to the cash generated by BSkyB or for consolidation of its results.” To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan Browning in London jbrowning9@bloomberg.net .

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Hong Kong’s Tsang Lost TV Debate on Democracy With Audrey Eu, Polls Show

June 17, 2010

By Mark Lee and Frederik Balfour June 18 (Bloomberg) — Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang lost a televised debate with barrister and opposition leader Audrey Eu on plans to change the city’s electoral system, polls showed. Tsang said the proposal to change the way Hong Kong elects lawmakers and the chief executive in 2012 would move the city along the path to full democracy, and accused Eu’s side of trying to stall the plan. “We’d rather stand still than take a step backward,” Eu replied. Seventy-one percent of respondents in two university surveys said Eu won the debate, according to reports in the South China Mornings Post and Standard newspapers. Forty-five percent of people polled by University of Hong Kong said they were “more opposed” to the government’s proposals after the debate, while 20 percent said they were more supportive, said the Post, which co-sponsored one survey. No margin of error was given. Eu’s pro-democracy group argues the package on offer from the central government in Beijing doesn’t go far enough to deliver full democracy and is stacked in favor of business groups dominating the so-called functional constituencies that make up half the 60 seats in the Legislative Council . Tsang says opposition demands should be addressed after his proposal goes through. “It’s obvious Audrey was the better performer,” said Joseph Cheng , professor of political science at the City University of Hong Kong. Still, the debate probably won’t make the government deliver changes to the proposal demanded by pro- democracy groups, he said. Public Protest The event is also unlikely to win over any of the 23 legislators who vowed to block the proposals, and may have been aimed more at salvaging Tsang’s reputation with the central government in Beijing, Alan Leong , a lawmaker in Eu’s party said before the debate. The package needs a two-thirds majority to pass, unless China makes concessions. LegCo is to vote June 23 on the proposal, which would see the number of lawmakers increased by 10. Five would be directly elected and five would represent functional constituencies. The number of Beijing appointees who elect the chief executive would be increased from 800 to 1,200. Tsang wanted “to let the people have a chance to hear the arguments on both sides and come to an informed decision,” his spokesman Andy Ho said in an e-mail earlier. Tsang’s predecessor Tung Chee-hwa stepped down from his post in 2005, more than two years early, after a botched attempt to push through separate China-sponsored constitutional changes sparked street protests and a deadly virus harmed tourism. Tsang’s Popularity Tsang’s own popularity has been slipping amid the wrangle over elections, polls show. On June 4, about 113,000 people attended a candlelight vigil to mark the 21st anniversary of China’s crackdown on pro- democracy demonstrators in Tiananmen Square, the largest number since 1989 according to police estimates. Several hundred people gathered in a park near yesterday’s debate, cheering for Eu and booing Tsang. Police had set up a visible security presence around nearby streets as a precaution. Chinese President Hu Jintao in December told Tsang to “handle constitutional development issues properly to ensure social harmony.” Premier Wen Jiabao urged him to resolve “deep-rooted contradictions in Hong Kong.” One of those contradictions is the “one country, two systems” formula struck when Britain handed the territory back to China in 1997. While Hong Kong has multiple political parties and more civil liberties than in mainland China, the timetable for greater democracy was set by the National People’s Congress Standing Committee in Beijing. Eu is calling for universal suffrage in 2012, five years earlier than China’s plans for letting the public vote for the chief executive and eight years before planned direct elections of all LegCo members. To contact the reporter on this story: Frederik Balfour in Hong Kong at fbalfour@bloomberg.net

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Hong Kong’s Tsang Pins His Reputation on TV Debate Over Pace of Democracy

June 17, 2010

By Frederik Balfour June 17 (Bloomberg) — Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang tonight faces off in a televised debate with opposition lawmaker Audrey Eu over China’s plans for changes to the city’s electoral system in 2012. The debate with the pro-democracy leader is unlikely to win over any of the 23 legislators who vowed to block the proposals, and may be aimed more at salvaging Tsang’s reputation with the central government in Beijing, said Alan Leong , a lawmaker in Eu’s party. “Beijing is evidently not willing to give genuine and true universal suffrage to Hong Kong,” said Leong. “The purpose of the debate is for Donald Tsang to demonstrate to Beijing that he has done his utmost to get the 2012 package through.” Eu’s pro-democracy group argues that China’s package doesn’t go far enough to deliver full democracy and is stacked in favor of business groups dominating the so-called functional constituencies that make up half the 60 seats in the Legislative Council. LegCo is to vote June 23 on the proposal, which would see the number of lawmakers increased by 10. Five would be directly elected and five would represent functional constituencies. The number of Beijing appointees who elect the chief executive would be increased from 800 to 1,200. Tsang wants “to let the people have a chance to hear the arguments on both sides and come to an informed decision,” his spokesman Andy Ho said in an e-mail. Public Protest Tsang’s predecessor Tung Chee-hwa stepped down from his post in 2005, more than two years early, after a botched attempt to push through separate China-sponsored constitutional changes sparked street protests and a deadly virus decimated tourism. Tsang’s own popularity has been slipping amid the wrangle over elections, polls show. On June 4, about 113,000 people attended a candlelight vigil to mark the 21st anniversary of the crackdown on pro- democracy demonstrators in Tiananmen Square, the largest number since 1989 according to police estimates. Chinese President Hu Jintao in December told Tsang to “handle constitutional development issues properly to ensure social harmony.” Premier Wen Jiabao urged him to resolve “deep-rooted contradictions in Hong Kong.” Beijing’s Timetable One of those contradictions is the “one country, two systems” formula struck when Britain handed the territory back to China in 1997. While Hong Kong has multiple political parties and more civil liberties than in mainland China, the timetable for greater democracy was set by the National People’s Congress Standing Committee in Beijing. Eu is calling for universal suffrage in 2012, five years earlier than China’s plans for letting the public vote for the chief executive and eight years before planned direct elections of all LegCo members. Twenty-three of the 60 LegCo members have already said they’ll oppose the 2012 package, which needs a two-thirds majority to pass, unless China makes concessions. While the city’s lawmakers discuss issues ultimately decided in Beijing, a growing number of Hong Kong’s 7 million people are expressing frustration at issues such as growing income inequality and air pollution. “We are structured not like a city, but like a country,” said Christine Loh , Chief Executive Officer of Hong Kong-based think tank Civic Exchange . “All the stuff relating to city planning, city design, city transport and things concerning public health, dealing with markets, public space and gardens, heritage preservation doesn’t dovetail very well.” Unsatisfied Citizens Results of a random survey of 934 households conducted by the Hong Kong Transition project between June 4 and June 14 indicate a majority of the respondents “express dissatisfaction with the Chief Executive’s performance,” said Michael DeGolyer , a professor of government and international studies at Hong Kong Baptist University , who heads the study. Sixty-three percent of respondents favored the abolition of functional constituencies representing key industries such as banking, law and manufacturing. That’s up from 55 percent of those polled from May 6 to May 15. “A lot of people are connecting the business domination of the functional constituencies with unfair policies they are experiencing,” said DeGolyer. The number of people living in poverty in Hong Kong in the first nine months of last year rose 19 percent, the South China Morning Post reported May 12, citing government data. Record Pollution Pollution in Hong Kong soared off the scale on March 22 as winds from sandstorms in northern China carried particles to Hong Kong. The air quality had never been so poor. The government denied the democracy debate is distracting efforts in other areas. “The electoral problems are the most pressing,” said Donald Lam, a spokesman for Tsang’s office. “It doesn’t mean the government is ignoring other problems.” In March, Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau said Hong Kong may accelerate replacement of old buses, change transit routes and set up low-emission zones to cut pollution. Still, it will take almost a decade to eliminate outdated buses from the city’s roads, he said. “Our toxic air is the most damning symptom of our present political system,” said Joanne Ooi , chief executive officer of independent advocacy group Clean Air Network . “Although the public near unanimously supports the aggressive clean-up of our air, the government has consistently failed to act.” Editors: Ben Richardson , Dirk Beveridge . To contact the reporter on this story: Frederik Balfour in Hong Kong at fbalfour@bloomberg.net

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UN Aid Arrives for Kyrgyzstan Refugees in Uzbekistan as Death-Toll Mounts

June 16, 2010

By Chris Kirkham June 16 (Bloomberg) — United Nations relief supplies for around 200,000 refugees fleeing ethnic violence in Kyrgyzstan arrived in neighboring Uzbekistan, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees said today. “The first of six planned Ilyushin-76 cargo planes, each carrying 40 tons of UNHCR relief supplies for refugees, has landed at Andijan airport in Uzbekistan after departing with supplies loaded from the aid agency’s stockpile in Dubai,” the UNHCR said in an e-mailed statement. The UNHCR said more than 75,000 people have arrived since June 10, citing the Uzbek government, though some reports say the total number of displaced since the ousting of former President Kurmanbek Bakiyev in April may be around 275,000. The death toll from the last six days of rioting in the Osh and Jalalabad regions of Kyrgyzstan may be much higher than previously announced, according to news reports. Interim President Roza Otunbayeva said she believed 700 may have died, the Wall Street Journal reported, while Christian Cardon, a spokesman for the Red Cross, referred to “several hundreds” of deaths, according to the Associated Press. Rupert Colville , spokesman for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, said there was evidence the violence was coordinated and began with five attacks in Osh by men in ski masks, the AP said. ‘Dangerous’ “This is an extremely dangerous situation given the ethnic patchwork in this part of Kyrgyzstan, it’s a highly complex ethnic mix there with some 80 ethnic groups just in the Osh region,” Colville said, according to the AP. “It has been known for many years that this region is a potential ethnic tinderbox.” The violence erupted on June 10 when supporters of former President Kurmanbek Bakiyev clashed with groups loyal to the interim government. The Uzbeks welcomed Bakiyev’s overthrow in April, blaming him for impeding the minority’s business growth and ignoring its political leaders, while many Kyrgyz in the south supported Bakiyev, who comes from the region. The clashes were aimed at disrupting a June 27 referendum on a new constitution and were funded by people close to Bakiyev, according to the government’s first deputy head, Almazbek Atambayev , Interfax reported yesterday. “It was a carefully planned operation conducted by the enemies of the interim government,” Atambayev said. “Its goal was to overthrow the new authorities of Kyrgyzstan and to thwart the referendum. The information available to our special services confirms that all of these measures were funded by the Bakiyev family, particularly Bakiyev’s youngest son Maxim.” Influence The United Nations and the European Union urged Kyrgyzstan not to allow the unrest to derail the referendum and October parliamentary elections. Otunbayeva yesterday pledged to proceed with plans for the plebiscite, the Wall St. Journal said. The U.S. and Russia have been jostling for influence in Kyrgyzstan, where both countries have air bases. Russia agreed in April to give the provisional government $50 million. Edil Baisalov, the government’s chief of staff, said at the time that the U.S. planned to give emergency aid. The U.S. relies on the Manas air base outside the capital Bishkek to support operations in Afghanistan after Uzbekistan evicted the American military in 2005. U.S. troops gathered food and fuel and sent it to the worst-affected area, according to a statement from the U.S. Air Force received yesterday. Economic Backdrop The International Monetary Fund on May 25 warned Kyrgyzstan’s projected 4.6 percent economic expansion this year may be damped by political upheaval. The fund predicted 8 percent growth for Uzbekistan, the world’s third-biggest shipper of cotton, at the time. Landlocked Kyrgyzstan depends on remittances from migrant workers in Russia for about 40 percent of national income, and also relies on rent paid by the U.S. and Russia for their bases. Kyrgyzstan’s average monthly wage was $132 in January, according to the country’s National Statistical Committee. About a third of the population lives below the poverty level, making the country eligible for aid from the International Development Association, the World Bank’s support arm for the poorest economies. Maxim Bakiyev was detained in Britain on June 14 by the U.K. Border Agency after he landed at Farnborough airport in Hampshire on a rented private plane, Kyrgyzstan’s national security chief Keneshbek Duishebayev told Channel One broadcaster, according to Interfax. His father, who has taken refuge in Belarus, has denied accusations that he is involved in the unrest. To contact the reporter on this story: Anastasia Ustinova in St. Petersburg at austinova@bloomberg.net .

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Harry Shearer: A Word to BP Shareholders

June 15, 2010

LONDON — The British media have been ablaze with patriotic defensiveness, upset that President Obama keeps calling BP “British Petroleum”. Strange: I was at the Tate Britain museum yesterday, visiting galleries sponsored by…BP. The London Olympics have as a main sponsor…BP. Seems pretty British to me. The media, and the Prime Minister, have also been insistent about the economic importance of BP to…Britain. The figure floating around suggests that a significant amount of pension-fund income in Britain each year comes from BP. Although it’s not British, you recall. And then they point out that almost 49% of BP shares are owned by Americans, and that BP grew to its mammoth size by merging with Amoco, an American company, mainly to gain control of Amoco’s operations in, of all places, the Gulf of Mexico. So, okay, a message to BP shareholders, be they Brits, Americans or none of the above. You benefited through the years from the profits generated by the company which accumulated 97% of the fines levied against oil companies for safety and environmental violations (not counting Exxon Valdez compensation). You gained financially from the damage your company inflicted on its workers and its surroundings. Now your company, following those same policies, has created enormous economic and ecological damage, and you are concerned about the impact that unlimited liability for that damage would have on your dividend and on the ability of your company to avoid bankruptcy. Question: how many of you complained to management about the policies and practices from which you benefited all these years? Or do you just complain when these policies and practices inflict profound economic and other costs on others, for which your company may be held responsible? Did you complain when management obviously low-balled flow estimates out of the well for at least a month, so as to minimize damage perceived by the potential jury pool? Or, as seems more likely, are you happy to privatize the gains and socialize the losses?

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Stocks, Commodities Advance on Outlook for Global Recovery Yen Declines

June 14, 2010

By Rita Nazareth and David Merritt June 14 (Bloomberg) — Stocks rose for a fifth day, the longest streak since October for the MSCI World Index, and commodities rallied on speculation government reports this week will show the global economic rebound is strengthening. The yen weakened and Treasuries fell. The MSCI World gauge of stocks in 24 developed nations gained 1.2 percent at 9:38 a.m. in New York and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 0.5 percent. Copper rallied for a fifth day in London, oil climbed 2.5 percent and sugar jumped for an eighth consecutive session. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed six basis points to 3.3 percent and the yen weakened against all 16 of its most-traded counterparts. The MSCI World advanced above the highest closing level since May 19 after industrial production increased more than economists forecast in April, rising 0.8 percent for an 11th month of gains, the European Union said today. The Federal Reserve may say on June 16 that output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities grew 0.9 percent last month after a 0.8 percent increase in April, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. “Stocks are so oversold it doesn’t take a whole lot to a get a rebound,” said E. William Stone , who oversees $104 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. “The U.S. economic recovery is in place. In Europe, we got positive industrial production data. On a day lacking negative news, it won’t be that hard to get a positive move.” Rally Extended The S&P 500 rose for a third day and added to gains from last week’s 2.5 percent rally, its best since March. A Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan report last week showed improving U.S. consumer sentiment. Alcoa Inc., the biggest U.S. aluminum producer, rose 1 percent and Exxon Mobil Corp. climbed 0.5 percent to pace an advance in commodity producers. Analysts have raised their average 2010 earnings growth forecasts for the S&P 500 to 32 percent from 26 percent at the end of March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The improving forecasts came even as the benchmark measure of U.S. equities retreated 13 percent between April 23 and June 4 amid concern some European nations will struggle to finance deficits. The S&P 500 is trading at about 13.4 times analysts’ earnings estimates for the next 12 months, near the lowest level since March 2009. “Fundamentals remain supportive for equities and equity volatility should revert to lower levels,” Nomura Holdings Inc.’s London-based strategist Ian Scott wrote in a note dated June 11. “The coming earnings announcement season should provide the catalyst for equity investors to focus on the value on offer and for equities to recover.” Fed Watch Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard , speaking in Tokyo today, said Europe’s debt crisis shouldn’t cause the Fed to postpone raising interest rates as the economy recovers. The central bank has kept its benchmark lending rate at a record-low range near zero since December 2008 to foster growth. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rallied 1 percent as 18 of 19 industry groups gained, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.5 percent to the highest in almost four weeks. BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group climbed more than 2.4 percent in London. Axa SA, Europe’s second-biggest insurer, rose 2.6 percent in Paris after saying it’s in talks to sell part of its U.K. life insurance unit to Clive Cowdery ’s Resolution Ltd. for 2.75 billion pounds ($4 billion). BP Slumps BP Plc , struggling to contain its oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, slipped 6.5 percent in London. The company faces a U.S. deadline today for a plan to raise oil-containment capacity as President Barack Obama demands an escrow account for damages claims related to the worst environmental disaster in the nation’s history. Developing-nation stocks rose for a fifth day, the longest winning streak in two months, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gaining 1.7 percent. Benchmark gauges in Taiwan, South Africa, Thailand and Qatar advanced more than 1 percent. South Korea’s won strengthened 2 percent against the dollar, the best performer among 26 emerging-market currencies, after policy makers said they will give banks time to meet a new ceiling on forward contracts, holding off from imposing controls on capital flows Copper for delivery in three months gained 2.1 percent to $6,614.50 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Prices have climbed for five days in a row, the longest advance since Jan. 4. Crude oil futures for July delivery increased $1.85 to $75.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. White, or refined, sugar for August delivery jumped as much as 0.7 percent to $527.40 a metric ton, the highest price since March, on the Liffe exchange in London. Prices have climbed for eight days, the longest advance since June 2008. Treasuries Drop The yield on the two-year Treasury note increased four basis points to 0.77 percent, and the 30-year bond yield rose eight basis points to 4.23 percent. German 10-year bunds fell, with the yield advancing seven basis points to 2.64 percent. The Belgian 10-year yield jumped 11 basis points to 3.47 percent. Flemish nationalists took the lead in Belgium ’s general elections, setting up coalition talks with French-speaking Socialists who face demands from Dutch-speaking voters to give more powers to the nation’s regions. The cost of protecting European corporate bonds from default fell, with the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of credit- default swaps on 50 mostly junk-rated companies declining 21 basis points to 575, the lowest in 1 1/2 weeks, according to Markit Group Ltd. The yen dropped 0.2 percent to 91.79 per dollar, and weakened 1.3 percent against the euro to 112.45. The dollar depreciated 1.1 percent to $1.2238 versus the euro. The pound climbed 1.4 percent to $1.4748 and gained 0.2 percent to 83.1 pence per euro after the Office for Budget Responsibility said Britain’s deficit will be 22 billion pounds ($32 billion) lower than the Treasury had forecast for 2010-2015. To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net ; David Merritt in London on dmerritt1@bloomberg.net

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U.K. Deficit Narrower Than Forecast Budget Office Predicts Weaker Growth

June 14, 2010

By Gonzalo Vina June 14 (Bloomberg) — Britain’s budget deficit will narrow more than expected even as the economy grows more slowly than the previous government forecast, the U.K.’s new fiscal watchdog said in a report prepared for the June 22 emergency budget. The deficit will narrow from 155 billion pounds in this fiscal year to 71 billion pounds ($228 billion) by April 2015, the Office of Budget Responsibility said in London today. That’s a 22 billion-pound improvement on the previous forecast. Gross domestic product will rise 2.6 percent next year, instead of the 3.25 percent predicted by the Labour government in March. The report lays the ground for Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne to outline the deepest spending cuts in a generation in next week’s budget. The pound has fallen 10 percent against the dollar this year and Fitch Ratings said last week that Prime Minister David Cameron ’s coalition government will need to step up the pace of reductions to protect Britain’s top credit rating. Former Bank of England policy maker Alan Budd and his colleagues in the OBR will release revised forecasts on June 22 to take account of the budget measures. Budd told reporters today he resisted the temptation to be overly pessimistic in his predictions, calling them the “best shot at an impossible task.” ‘Surprisingly Optimistic’ The forecasts “have taken a surprisingly optimistic view of the outlook for the U.K. public finances,” Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, said in an e-mail. “On the face of it, they might seem to relieve the pressure for an additional fiscal tightening, or even make room for tax cuts. But we suspect that the government will still want to err on the side of caution, if only for political reasons.” The OBR said that the deficit as a percentage of GDP would fall to 3.9 percent by 2015 from 10.5 percent. Net debt would increase to 74.4 percent of economic output. Sterling climbed 1.2 percent to $1.4730 as of 10:47 a.m. in London and was little changed at 83.18 pence per euro. The 10- year gilt yield was three basis points higher at 3.50 percent, after reaching 3.52 percent. Osborne created the OBR to provide forecasts that are independent of the government. The six-week old coalition is pinning the blame for Britain’s record peacetime budget deficit on Labour, in power from 1997. Gordon Brown was chancellor in that government for 10 years before taking over as prime minister in 2007. Cameron said last week Brown left the public finances in a worse state than he anticipated and warned that the squeeze to come will “affect every single person in our country.” To contact the reporter on this story: Gonzalo Vina in London at gvina@bloomberg.net .

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Robert Reich: Why the United States Still Can’t Get BP to Do What’s Necessary

June 13, 2010

Here’s what Coast Guard Rear Adm. James A. Watson wrote to BP’s chief operating officer on Friday: “Recognizing the complexity of this challenge, every effort must be expended to speed up the process.” BP’s plans don’t “go far enough to mobilize redundant resources” in the event of an equipment failure or another problem. “BP must identify in the next 48 hours additional leak containment capacity that could be operationalized and expedited to avoid the continued discharge of oil.” Translated: You’re dragging your heels and aren’t even using all the equipment you have, damn it. You better, or I’ll … I’ll … . BP spokesman Jon Pack said the company received Watson’s letter and would respond to it as soon as possible. Translated: Too bad. Have a nice weekend. The administration has not used legal authority to order BP to do a thing, because it hasn’t asserted any legal authority. Meanwhile, the White House backed off its suggestion earlier in the week that it could stop BP from paying a giant dividend to its shareholders. That suggestion had caused BP shares to plummet and pressure to build on Britain’s new Prime Minister David Cameron. 12 percent of dividends paid to pensioners in the UK come from BP. Cameron and Obama had a friendly chat Saturday, assuring one another BP is important to both countries. You see where all this is heading. At some point there’s likely to be a direct conflict. Like any big corporation, BP has legal duties to repay its creditors and to maximize the share prices of its stockholders. Its duties to the United States are still vague and unknown. The Oil Pollution Act of 1990 can be interpreted in various ways. So far, the administration hasn’t tried. Yet BP is still in control of what’s happening in Gulf to stop the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history. BP still has lots of money. But the final cost of plugging the leak in the Gulf, containing the spill, cleaning up after it, and paying all damages — including lost wages to millions of workers whose jobs have been lost or will be if the spill keeps tourists away — could easily be tens of billions of dollars. And right now BP’s first responsibility is to its creditors and shareholders, not to the American public. So if it’s UK pensioners versus American workers and property owners, who wins? More to the point, who’s going to decide? Most likely, a judge — or several judges, here and in the UK, through a mountain of litigation that will keep thousands of attorneys, solicitors, and barristers busy for decades. In the meantime, months or even years could go by as Coast Guard admirals and rear admirals, as well as the White House, tells BP it needs to spend more to stop and clean up the mess it’s created, it’s going way too slow, and it’s not divulging what it knows. And BP shrugs and says it’s doing all it can. I’ve got a better idea. Wouldn’t it be far simpler for the White House (stating that the Pollution Control Act of 1990 gives it authority) to put BP’s American operations into temporary receivership? That way, Obama can take over BP’s assets here and use its expertise to stop the leak and clean up the mess as soon as possible — and leave the subsequent years of bickering to the courts. Extra bonus: It shows the public the president is really in charge. This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org

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Gulf Oil Spill: BP’s Failures Amplified By Numerous Gaffes

June 11, 2010

HOUSTON — BP is already fighting an oil gusher it can’t contain and watching its mighty market value wither away. Its own bumbling public-relations efforts are making a big mess worse. Not only has it made a series of gaffes – none greater than the CEO’s complaint that “I’d like my life back” – the company hasn’t even followed its own internal guidelines for damage control after a spill. Executives have quibbled about the existence of undersea plumes of oil, downplayed the potential damage early in the crisis and made far-too-optimistic predictions for when the spill could be stopped. BP’s steadiest public presence has been the ever-present live TV shot of the untamed gusher. What BP has lacked, crisis management experts say, has been much of a show of human compassion. “All crises are personal,” said Richard Levick, who runs a public relations firm, Levick Strategic Communications, that advises companies. “Action and sacrifice is absolutely critical.” The best move for BP’s image, of course, would be to stop the leak. That has proved difficult enough, with one fix after another failing and estimates of the severity of the spill growing by the week. Failing a solution, Daniel Keeney, president of a Dallas-based PR firm, suggested putting CEO Tony Hayward in a hard hat and life vest, helping crews contain and clean up the spill. “You want to get him right in the thick of things, even if he looks somewhat uncomfortable doing it,” Keeney said. Levick suggested BP could have cut gas prices at its stations along the Gulf Coast – a show of financial solidarity. BP has taken a stab at soothing angry Americans, airing a slick, multimillion-dollar national TV spot this week in which Hayward pledges: “We will make this right.” Hayward also promised BP would clean up every drop of oil and “restore the shoreline to its original state.” President Barack Obama said the money spent on the ads should have gone to cleanup and compensating devastated fisherman and small business owners. And even those efforts violate the company’s own prescription for damage control. Its own spill plan, filed last year with the federal government, says of public relations: “No statement shall be made containing any of the following: promises that property, ecology or anything else will be restored to normal.” On top of everything else, BP can’t figure out what to say about its dividend. Lawmakers in the U.S. insist the company must look after the devastated people of the Gulf before paying its shareholders. But in Britain, legions of retirees count on the steady payouts. And earlier this week when Wall Street freaked out over the prospect of billions of dollars in BP liabilities and sent its stock to its lowest point since the mid-1990s, the company response was positively tone-deaf. “The company is not aware of any reason which justifies this share price movement,” the company said early Thursday, after its stock was hammered on New York and European exchanges. Almost from the beginning, BP has been as unable to control its public message as it has the spill itself. Hayward was ridiculed for telling reporters “I’d like my life back” earlier in the crisis, remarks the families of some of the 11 men killed in the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon rig felt were insensitive. He also suggested that the environmental impact of the spill would be “very, very modest.” Former Shell chairman John Hofmeister said it might have been more appropriate for senior U.S. executives of the company to take the heat. Hayward is an Englishman, and BP is based in Britain. “I think it was a mistake for Tony Hayward to come and put his physical presence in the U.S.,” Hofmeister said. “The U.S. has its own culture and traditions. Foreign companies can come and do business there, but they are not necessarily welcomed.” BP’s chief operating officer, Doug Suttles, an American, was rolled out for interviews, but his aides grumbled Hayward was stealing the spotlight. Hayward’s decision to present a video explaining BP’s “top kill” attempt took the company’s Louisiana command by surprise. As for Suttles himself, he insisted this week that there were no massive underwater oil plumes in “large concentrations” from the spill. To NBC, he offered that it “may be down to how you define what a plume is here.” The government had said three tests confirmed oil as far as three-fifths of a mile below the surface of the Gulf, at least 40 miles away from the site of the gushing well. Suttles also predicted the spill would be reduced to a “relative trickle” by early next week. BP later sought to walk the comments back, saying the company was optimistic but that getting the spill to a trickle would take more time. By late this week, the government had reported that the spill was spewing the equivalent of the Exxon Valdez disaster into the Gulf every two weeks or less, with the catastrophe nearing the end of its second month. Since the April 20 explosion, BP has parachuted its own staff, plus staff from at least two independent public-relations firms, to deal with the deluge of round-the-clock media inquiries. Early on in the crisis, BP and government officials held daily in-person briefings with media, allowing questions. In recent days and weeks, officials have increasingly resorted to teleconferences with reporters and have limited the ability to ask questions and the number of questions that could be asked. In Houston, where BP has set up a U.S. command center, company PR officials have grown weary of reporters going directly to engineers and other higher-ups for information, at times trying to insist media go through them first. Spokesman Robert Wine said in an e-mail to The Associated Press that media visits to the Houston center are “very carefully controlled and sparingly arranged” by design. “The rooms that are shown are full of the teams who WILL make a difference on the result of this crisis,” Wine wrote. “Every second they are not helping with media visits is time they are not doing the `day job.’” In the meantime, BP has been buying up spill-related search terms on Google and Yahoo, so that links to its own oil-response sites pop up first. BP says the idea is to help people on the Gulf find the right forms and people quickly and effectively. Others suggest it’s a move to steer searchers away from bad press for BP. “It is clearly trying to protect its brand image,” said Matthew Whiteway, director of campaign management at London consulting firm Greenlight, which says 95 percent of BP’s search listings are rated very negative. Crisis management experts say the only reliable way to repair BP’s badly tarnished image is the obvious one – to plug the hole. “Crisis management is about fixing the problem. It’s not about looking good,” said Tony Jaques, a crisis management consultant in Melbourne, Australia. “BP has done some things that have not been smart, but really, what would they have done to look good in this kind of situation anyway?” ___ McClam reported from New York. Associated Press writers Michael Liedtke in San Francisco, Tamara Lush in New Orleans and Jane Wardell in London contributed to this report.

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Johann Hari: The Super-Rich CEO Scam – and How to Stop It

June 10, 2010

We are emerging now from a long dream-boom, built on a mess of financial trickery rather than on producing anything worthwhile. In the nineties and the noughties we didn’t become more efficient or more productive — we simply became better at being conned. All the “triumphs of deregulation” bragged about by market fundamentalists from Ronald Reagan to Tony Blair were built on a nitroglycerine-base of credit default swaps and subprime mortgages. The profits went almost entirely to the richest one per cent, while the bill after the burst goes to all of us. It will take years to drive out all the delusions that cropped up in the mirage years. Even now, the bank lobbyists are fighting against re-regulating their sector — with the money we gave them in the bail-out. A few addled market fundamentalists are still singing their old tunes, warning that regulation will lead to “disaster,” as if the disaster hasn’t already happened in the system they midwifed into the world. But under the cover of this row, more bad ideas are trying to crawl out of the rubble unnoticed. One of the most dramatic changes in the fake years was the transformation in pay for people at the top. In 1980, the average CEO in America and the UK took 42 times the average worker’s wage. By 2000, it was 531 times. Did CEOs become 12 times more effective? Or was this another trick of the boom-light? The answer — and the solution — lies in an excellent book by the business writer David Bolchover called Pay Check: Are Top Earners Really Worth It? (Coptic, £11.99) It contains a stark contrast. In 2008, the CEO of the world’s largest and most successful bank earned £150,000. His name is Jiang Jianqing, and he runs the Industrial and Commerce Bank of China. By contrast, the head of the most unsuccessful investment bank earned £22m. His name was Richard Fuld, and he ran Lehman Brothers. How does the CEO class in Britain and America justify the gap? It has constructed what Bolchover calls the “talent ideology.” Just as Rio Ferdinand is one of a handful of men who can kick a ball with great skill, just as Angelina Jolie is one of a handful of women who can pack out the multiplexes, so there is a handful of people who can be CEOs of large companies. They determine whether corporations rise and fall. They carry billions on their backs. For great talent, you must pay great cash. But is it true? If you look at the biggest surges in CEO pay, they bore almost no relation to their “talent” at all. You can prove it on a graph. To pick just one example: CEO pay at the top of the global investment banks soared when the overall global economy was booming. Then, when the global economy sank, their pay dipped a little (although never even close to the level it had been before the boom). In truth, as Bolchover explains, “Whether he had talent or not was irrelevant. He just happened to be the head of a company that was performing, more or less, as it would have done with a different leader… He was not a hero [or] a dunce. He was just there.” It’s like paying the captain of a ship a massive bonus when the tide comes in, and then dipping it a tiny amount when the tide goes out, while he brags about his “genius” at every turn. The same principle runs across many industries. The CEOs of oil companies can rake in half a billion dollars a year when the oil price is high — but how is that their achievement? Conversely, after the crash, CEOs who could not have shown less talent — who oversaw the destruction of their companies — walked away with fortunes. No: “talent” was always a cover for seizing the most they could get. In practice, these men were setting their own wages, with little supervision from shareholders. Imagine you could go into work tomorrow and do the same. Wouldn’t you be earning more than you are today — or than you deserve? I hereby demand that GQ pay me $40,000 for this column, now, with a £20,000 bonus for meeting my deadline and an extra $10,000 for not torching their offices. Yes, there is a real talent in being a CEO — but it is not especially rare. Bolshover argues that there are a dozen people in the hierarchy of any large company who would be as plausible a CEO as anybody who gets the job, and dozens of contenders who could be poached from a competitor, and hundreds in other fields. Of course, the very same people who told us the market would deal efficiently with subprime mortgages and credit default swaps are throwing up their hands and saying that the market will deal efficiently with CEO pay. But it doesn’t, and it won’t. There is a better way. Bolchover suggests when a company has narrowed its CEO selection down to six good candidates, it should ask everyone on the shortlist to name the lowest wage and bonus package they are prepared to work for. The one who comes in with the lowest bid should get the job. (There would be a reasonable floor to make sure independently rich people didn’t fill them all by offering to work for $1.) Plenty of extremely able people would be happy to run a major corporation for a fraction of the current pay: the President earns $400,000 a year, and there’s no shortage of candidates. Government regulation should make this standard practice. Suddenly, instead of the endless puffing up of CEO pay, it would start to fall to reasonable levels. It would be hugely popular: a poll for the Financial Times found 80 per cent of us think business leaders are overpaid. It would be a sign — at last — of a return to sobriety after the crazed, confected amphetamine rush of the boom-dream. T his column appeared in the June issue of British GQ magazine. To subscribe, click here . To read more of Johann’s articles, click here . You can follow Johann on Twitter at www.twitter.com/johannhari101

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BP Stock Falls AGAIN On Dividend News – British Pension Funds Could Be Hit Hard

June 10, 2010

LONDON — BP shares sunk Thursday in London as U.S. politicians pressed the British oil company to halt its dividend payments and fork out greater compensation for American workers and companies devastated by the massive Gulf of Mexico oil spill. But markets were also beginning to heed warnings from analysts who said Wednesday’s 15.8 percent sell-off of BP shares in New York was an overreaction. BP shares dropped as much as 11 percent to a 13-year low at the open in London, then recovered some ground by early afternoon, trading 5.1 percent lower at 371.40 pence ($5.42). In the United States, the stock was up 11.6 percent in premarket trading at $3.40. The share price falls in London and New York have wiped out around half the company’s market value since the spill began with an April 20 rig explosion in the Gulf. BP PLC is finding itself caught in a trans-Atlantic squeeze between an angry U.S. administration and unhappy shareholders, who include hundreds of thousands of retirees in British pension funds. Prime Minister David Cameron’s office said the British leader would discuss the issue with President Barack Obama on a scheduled telephone call over the weekend. Investors are fretting about the rising costs facing BP after Obama suggested it should also pay unemployment benefits to thousands of oil workers laid off during a moratorium on deep-sea drilling triggered by the spill. BP tried to reassure investors before the London Stock Exchange opened, saying it was in a strong financial position and it saw no reason to justify the U.S. sell-off, and many analysts agree that the company can withstand the crisis. But most market experts also acknowledge that the political rhetoric surrounding the accident is outweighing financial fundamentals. “We don’t believe BP has a funding issue, but given the overwhelmingly hostile nature of the U.S. government the company may decide to suspend payments until the wells are capped and the clean-up sufficiently advanced to convince the US that it can afford all the costs as well as pay dividends,” said Evolution Securities analyst Richard Griffith. “Unilateral action against BP over its U.S. operations, be it unreasonable or illegal, hangs over BP.” Robert Talbut, the chief investment officer at Royal London Asset Management, a shareholder in BP, said “there is a lot of very irrational and short-term selling going on.” But he added that talk of a potential sale of assets or takeover bid – PetroChina Ltd. has been suggested by some as a potential suitor – was not surprising. “I can understand exactly why someone else would want to buy the BP assets because I think they are grossly undervalued at the moment,” he said. “As a shareholder, it’s not something I would welcome.” The politics of the spill crossed the Atlantic, with London Mayor Boris Johnson expressing concern Thursday about the “anti-British rhetoric that seems to be permeating from America.” Johnson said BP was paying a “very, very heavy price” for an accident. “I would like to see a bit of cool heads rather than endlessly buck-passing and name-calling,” Johnson told BBC Radio. “When you consider the huge exposure of British pension funds to BP, it starts to become a matter of national concern if a great British company is being continually beaten up on the airwaves.” The influential Financial Times newspaper ran a banner front-page headline “UK alarm over attack on BP.” Cutting the dividend would have a big impact in Britain, where the company accounts for about an eighth of dividend payments from companies in that country’s blue-chip stock index, providing crucial income for retirees. In addition, about 40 percent of BP’s shareholders are based in the U.S. BP, which earned more than $16 billion last year, said Thursday the cost of the clean-up and containment efforts had now hit $1.43 billion. Speaking to investors last week, CEO Tony Hayward wouldn’t estimate the total bill, though he told analysts that minority partners in the rig would be expected to pay as well. BP stressed on Thursday that it had “significant capacity and flexibility” to deal with ongoing costs, underlining its additional cash flow, strong debt to equity ratio and proven reserves. The company reminded investors that it had indicated in March – before the explosion at the Deepwater Horizon rig – that its cash inflows and outflows were balanced at an oil price of around $60 per barrel. It said its gearing was currently below the bottom of its targeted range and its asset base was “strong and valuable.” The company had more than 18 million barrels of proven reserves and 63 billion barrels of resources at the end of 2009. Killik & Co. analyst Jonathan Jackson said the shares would remain very volatile until there was a clearer idea of the potential cost but he remained positive on the stock. “Despite the high risk involved in adding to holdings in the short term and the possibility of a temporary suspension of the dividend, we would continue to do so,” he said. ___ AP Reporter Robert Barr contributed to this story.

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