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More here: Scott Gish Joins Cambridge NanoTech Executive Team

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Here’s %category%-related post from
Marketwire – Management Changes:

CHICAGO, IL–(Marketwire – May 9, 2011) – American College of Education has named Sandra J. Doran as its new president. Ms. Doran brings extensive academic and fiscal experience to the position, and embodies the ideals of learning and innovation that lie at the heart of the College’s mission. Most recently, she served as chief of staff/vice president and general counsel at Lesley University in Cambridge, MA, a position she held since 2004. Lesley is among the 10 largest master’s degree programs in the United States, offering programs at its Cambridge and Boston campuses and at more than 150 sites in 26 states. While at Lesley, Ms. Doran’s responsibilities included mergers and acquisitions, board development, strategic planning, facilities acquisitions, risk management, compliance, and financial growth.

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UPDATE: American College of Education Names Sandra J. Doran President

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Elizabeth Warren Names Major CFPB Regulator

February 18, 2011

WASHINGTON — On Thursday, House Republicans cemented plans to slash the budget for the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, setting up a major fight with the Senate and President Barack Obama over one of the signature progressive accomplishments from last year’s financial reform bill. But for public interest groups, there was a sliver of good news buried underneath: Elizabeth Warren, the consumer watchdog charged with setting up the CFPB, named longstanding consumer advocate Raj Date the head of rule-writing and research for the nascent bureau. “Raj’s background gives him a great set of skills and experiences,” Warren told HuffPost. “He has a creative vision for organizational design, he’s got industry experience in the credit markets and he was one of the strongest voices for reform in the aftermath of the financial crisis.” Date has been a top adviser to Warren since last year, and was one of the first four people to join the new agency. His background is in banking — with a resume that includes leadership positions at Deutsche Bank, Capital One and uber-consulting firm McKinsey & Co. during the past decade. But following the financial collapse of 2008, Date struck off on his own, founding (and partially funding) the Cambridge Winter Center for Financial Institutions Policy, a reform-minded think tank. And while Date remains highly respected by bankers, he was one of the key players arguing for a major overhaul of the financial system during the congressional debate. Date’s nuts-and-bolts economic research formed the backbone for many of the arguments launched by Americans for Financial Reform — an umbrella group for consumer advocates urging stronger regulation. “Raj is one of the few bankers who understood that the financial industry couldn’t succeed by bleeding the middle and working classes dry,” says Heather McGhee, director of the Washington, D.C. office of Demos, a think tank and AFR member organization. Date was particularly effective in the debates over the Volcker Rule, which bans risky proprietary trading by banks that enjoy federal guarantees, and several consumer protection rules, especially those surrounding abusive auto lending. In his new job — one of a handful at the agency that will report directly to Warren– he’ll be responsible for overseeing market research and writing rules. His plan is straightforward– collect your own data, keep a constant eye on market trends to make sure you know what’s going on. When you see abuses, do something about it. It’s a simple plan, but one that hasn’t been implemented at U.S. bank regulators before. Most agencies rely on information reported by banks themselves, rather than finding their own data. And nobody watches market trends. “We’re going to assign someone to monitor each one of these markets,” Date told HuffPost, listing five categories of consumer credit: mortgages, credit cards, deposits, credit reporting agencies, and another category including student loans and car loans. “That’s new. If you go over to any other agency right now, there’s nobody assigned to just watch what’s happening in, say, the mortgage market.” The new agency has plenty of hurdles ahead. House Republicans are not only going after the budget for the CFPB, they’re also targeting Warren herself. A vote is expected Friday on an amendment from Rep. John Carter (R-Texas) that would effectively require President Barack Obama to fire Warren, along with 23 other top administration officials. As the budget proposal currently stands, the CFPB would have only about half of the funding it needs to get off the ground this year, an attempt by the House GOP to prevent the agency from effectively enforcing rules against Wall Street. But if the new agency can survive the budget salvo, consumer advocates see reason for hope, even in the face of Wall Street’s infamous and deep-pocketed lobbying machine. Hires like Date — who joins a handful of very effective state regulators that Warren has also scooped up, including former Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray and Massachusetts Banking Commissioner Steve Antonakes — show a team of officials dedicated to actually regulating industry abuses, a rare phenomenon in Washington. “This business is complicated, but it’s not magic,” Date said. “If you deify finance as somehow beyond the comprehension of government, regulators will not do their jobs and the markets will never work. You have to be willing to act like law enforcement when you have to.”

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Pamela Jones Harbour: Former Regulator Poses Questions About the Google’s Deal With ITA

January 7, 2011

Reading about Google’s proposed $700 million acquisition of Cambridge, Mass.-based ITA software in the Boston Globe and elsewhere evoked memories for me of tough decisions I made as a former Federal Trade Commissioner and Deputy AG in the New York State Attorney General’s office. Google’s proposed acquisition of ITA and potential dominance in the online travel market raises substantial questions I would ask as a former antitrust regulator. Search engines form the gateway to the Internet, connecting consumers to information and commercial offerings, including travel. Already, 30 percent of all search engine traffic for online travel sites begins with Google. Even though most users complete their flight searches on online travel sites like Kayak and Expedia, Google’s share of initial travel searches already gives it enormous sway over the $80 billion in travel purchases made online in 2009. Most consumers have never heard of ITA, but have probably used its technology. ITA’s QPX software powers the majority of online flight searches. Searching for flights is complex due to an almost endless combination of schedules, routes, availability tariffs, rules, fees and real-time information on seat pricing and availability. It took the MIT computer scientists who founded ITA nearly five years to create a commercial product. ITA licenses its proprietary technology and unique real-time access to data from the airlines on seat pricing and availability to many of the most popular online travel sites such as KAYAK, Travelocity, Hotwire, and Microsoft for Bing Travel. The ITA acquisition would allow Google to collect more user data, command higher advertising rates and extract a greater share of online travel searches and search advertising. This deal would allow Google to dictate who gets a license to ITA’s critical technology and strengthen Google’s ability to steer search traffic in online travel. Allowing Google to acquire ITA would enable it to dominate both the front-end (search) and back-end (search advertising) of the online travel marketplace. In light of that background, as a former regulator, I would pose several questions: 1. Google is under investigation by the European competition authority and the Texas Attorney General for allegedly altering search results to disadvantage competitive sites. How could an auditor determine that Google was not disproportionately favoring its own businesses, if the ITA deal closes? 2. What would prevent Google from using its trove of consumer information to become a data broker to the airlines, essentially teaching airlines how to extract higher airfares from consumers by adjusting their pricing strategies? Google could combine the ITA data with the consumer data it has already collected and start offering targeted marketing campaigns to airlines: “Would you like to market your flights to Cancun to consumers making $100,000+ per year who have searched for “Mexico” and taken a trip in the last 12 months?” There have been reports of web sites already charging consumers higher prices based on past purchasing patterns, on a wide variety of goods and services (ranging from CDs to travel). 3. What would prevent Google’s search advertising prices from increasing after the acquisition? In Japan, after regulators approved the Google/Yahoo Japan deal, Google’s keyword advertising rates reportedly increased by up to almost 5 times preceding amounts. Wouldn’t the airlines pass along those higher costs to consumers? 4. Would the effect of Google’s dominance in search and search advertising, combined with the acquisition of ITA’s unique technology and real-time access to airline data, give Google control of both the supply and demand side of travel search? Google would have access to the real-time seat availability and price information, the ability to extract higher advertising fees from airlines, the incentive to teach airlines how to discriminate among consumers, and enough consumer information to control what a consumer sees. 5. Finally, would the effect of the proposed acquisition reduce consumers’ quality of information, reduce travel advertisers’ choices and product variety (due to increased ad rates), and potentially diminish innovation in online travel search? I’m no longer a regulator who can review this proposed transaction, but the world is certainly watching those who are. The government must act now to protect consumers, stop search deception and promote fair competition online.

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Jonathan Weiler: Face Value: Deficits as Code for Tribal Fears

November 25, 2010

It’s obvious, of course, that the right’s new concern with deficits is not really about deficits, per se (any more than their new-found concern with government tyranny can be viewed with a straight face). Little fuss was heard from right-wing precincts during the Bush years, when the decider quickly burned through Clinton-era surpluses and ran up large deficits by pursuing reckless fiscal and military policies. And it would be hard to square American conservatives’ conferring of sainthood on Ronald Reagan with their now profound, deep, over-riding concern with deficits, given that Reagan oversaw dramatic increases in deficit spending . If deficits are the ultimate measure of irresponsibility, out-of-control government and a failure to live prudently and within one’s means — all values conservatives claim to hold dear — lionizing as the very embodiment of greatness and true leadership a President who behaved fiscally irresponsibly would simply make no sense. For some in Washington and its media environs, deficits do mean, roughly, something related to spending too much money. Erskine Bowles, co-chair of the deficit commission, believes that there is a threshold for spending money beyond which very bad things will happen( though Bowles has failed to come up with a coherent rationale for explaining what that threshold is ). And people like CNN ‘s Gloria Borgen, who recently insisted that the voters’ message on November 2 was that they wanted deficits reduced ( despite data showing how utterly laughable that claim is ) probably have nothing more in mind when it comes to deficits than what they hear at cocktail parties. But for the movement that has made the biggest issue out of deficits, the Tea Party, broadly speaking, deficits mean more than arbitrary numbers on a balance sheet or stupid mischaracterizations of what Americans actually care about. And because they’ve so powerfully shaped political discourse in the past eighteen months, it’s worth understanding what the underlying meaning of their concern with deficits is really all about. Yes, Wall Street, bondholders, banking interests and central bankers care about deficits for their own reasons, and these matter, of course, for what’s on the political agenda ( including Bowles himself ). But as a galvanizing emotional issue, deficits are a big deal in 2010 because they pack the kind of emotional punch and dog-whistle politics that once made crime and welfare such potent wedge issues. Deficits have become code. And the code is quite clear, once you think about it for a moment — that when government acts, it always acts to help the undeserving and, in doing so, hurts real Americans who are faithful to real American values. In this code, America is awash in free-loaders and law-breakers — poor, illegal, grubby-handed “losers” who are ruining everything that once made America great. Deficits are government’s way of indulging, coddling and abetting these losers. Crime and welfare had an obvious “face” — an African-American face. And politicians from Nixon, to Reagan to the elder Bush self-consciously exploited that racial code to win elections, as Lee Atwater , among others, openly acknowledged. But the code is more diffuse now. It’s not strictly about race any longer. It’s about every sort of un-nerving difference. Yes, swarthy skin is still a surefire way to set off the terror that has galvanized the Beck-istas and the dittoheads — Muslims and illegal immigrants being easy focal points of the hatred du jour. But it all runs together now — embodied in what Sarah Palin during the 2008 campaign, when she spoke of the “real” America — a place of exclusion, fear, resentment and desperation to defend their besieged communities from the tax collector and all those menacing representations of difference on whose behalf the tax collector serves. This is why, as I’ve said before, though Obama’s skin color, name and background are highly relevant to the right-wing’s insane and misplaced hatred of him (he’s cut taxes for nearly everybody, presided over record corporate profits, expanded our military operations and continued the most repressive features of the Bush national security apparatus) — the skin color issue also misses the deeper-seated motives behind that hatred . Had Hillary Clinton been president and pursued similar deficit-spending policies, she would have been subject to similar attacks. It’s what deficits represent that matters most — a hand out to people who are worthy of nothing but hatred and contempt, who have bespoiled “our” fragile community, who are responsible for the dread and insecurity we feel – because what those deficits mean is that the government will help and defend “them,” but not “us.” In sum, deficits are code for government taking sides in a tribal war, with the one good tribe — the real Americans — under siege from all the tribes of venality, dissipation and filth. We can debate the significance of long-term deficits for our economic well-being and, yes, I am well aware that, in the long run, most economists agree that this is a significant policy problem that we need to tackle. But this fairly technical policy debate is not what’s mobilizing the tea party to scream about deficits in 2010, after having watched quietly while their putative conservative heroes acted with fiscal abandon from 1980 on. Spending money on their own kind is one thing (and the Reagans and Bushes can be reliably counted on to do that) — an affirmation of the natural, acceptable state of things. Spending it on all those “others” out there is something else entirely. People are entitled, of course, to believe that they and their kind are more deserving than others. But we’re under no obligation to take their anger about deficits at face value, when it’s so clear that something much deeper lurks behind the crying over spilled red ink. Jonathan Weiler’s second book, Authoritarianism and Polarization in American Politics , co-authored with Marc Hetherington, was published last year by Cambridge University Press.

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MIT Entrepreneurship Review: Pixable: Why We Weren’t Afraid To Have Facebook As A Competitor

October 13, 2010

MIT Entrepreneurship Review : Despite the tawdry tales behind the recently released movie The Social Network , most Americans would still confess to at least a tinge of envy at Facebook founder, Mark Zuckerburg’s meteoric rise in business. Who would not dream of the techno gold struck by formerly geeky students the like of Zuckerburg, Sergei Brin, or Bill Gates? In fact, these titans are only the figureheads of a massive movement across American universities — students taking ideas from the classroom or the lab, and into the market. Student entrepreneurship derives from two powerful streams — education and business creation — meeting to form the most creative new products on the market. Today, the MIT Entrepreneurship Review brings you a story of Inaki Berenguer, whose recent graduation present to himself was a company to run, a company that he conceived and brought to life within the halls of MIT. Inaki Berenguer : My co-founders, Andres Blank and Alberto Sheinfeld, and I started Pixable when we were at MIT between our first and second years in the business school. Pixable is the place to go to browse and manage all your photos online — photos on Facebook, Picasa, Flickr, and even photos on your computer. It’s a way to unify your photos that are based on different websites, group and edit them, and do other cools things like creating video slideshows or photobooks that we would print and send to you. We came up with the idea thanks to the trips that we were taking at MIT, particularly our trip to Japan. We went on the trip and at the end of it we wanted to create a photobook to remember the experience, so we went to all our classmates and asked if they’d give us their photos on a USB drive. And all we heard was, “No, they are on Picasa,” “They are on Facebook,” “They are on Flickr,” and so on. It was frustrating because the photos were already online and we had access to them, but we still couldn’t group them. So we said, “Well, let’s try and solve this problem for ourselves.” When you’re starting to research a market that’s big enough, you’ll find opportunities there. So it’s a matter of being in that market and not just solving a problem, but solving a hard problem that isn’t solved yet. Even if you don’t solve the problem, along the way you’ll solve other adjacent problems and you’ll still be in the same big market. In our case, it also helped that we were solving a problem that we were experiencing ourselves as consumers. In the middle of the second year we decided to put some money down and hire a development team in India. Most people don’t put time or anything out of their own pocket and just want investors’ money. But why would you invest in someone like that if they are not even ready to invest their time in themselves? With the initial money down, we actually went to India to work with the developers, wrote the product specs, and bought the domain. We also wanted to partner with a printing facility, so we flew to different printing facilities in the U.S. All of that happened in 2009 during our second year of the MBA program. In March of that year we incorporated the company and raised half a million dollars from friends and family before finishing business school. We went to our friends for money and they gave us around 30K each here and there. And that’s another thing, you don’t ask your friends for money if you’re still considering taking a job. If you ask your best friend for 25K, that’s because you have skin in the game and you’re going to be with your startup no matter what happens. We started working full-time on the startup in New York City right after graduation. In June, we closed our first round of financing of $2.5M from Highland Capital Partners, which brought to our board James Joaquin, who was the founder of oFoto and CEO of Kodak Gallery, and Bob Davis, the founder and CEO of Lycos and managing partner at Highland. We’re living the dream. Biography of Inaki Berenguer : Inaki is a founder and and CEO of Pixable. Before Pixable, Inaki completed Master’s and PhD degrees in Engineering at Cambridge University, completed an MBA at MIT, and spent two years as a Fulbright scholar at Columbia University. He also worked as a researcher at HP, NEC Labs and Intel. More recently, he spent two years as a management consultant at McKinsey & Company in the high tech, banking and telecom sectors, and as a manager in the Corporate Strategy Group at Microsoft. Inaki is trying to convince the rest of the team to open a Pixable office somewhere warm in Spain.

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The Recession Is OVER, Says Economic Panel

September 20, 2010

(AP, JEANNINE AVERSA): It’s official: The longest recession the country has endured since World War II ended in June 2009, according to a group that dates the beginning and end of recessions. The National Bureau of Economic Research, a panel of academic economists based in Cambridge, Mass., says the recession lasted 18 months. It started in December 2007 and ended in June 2009. That was the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar downturns were those in 1973-1975 and in 1981-1982. Both of those lasted 16 months. The decision makes official what many economists have believed for some time, that the recession ended in the summer of 2009. The economy started growing again in the July-to-September quarter of 2009, after a record four straight quarters of declines. Thus, the April-to-June quarter of 2009, marked the last quarter when the economy was shrinking. At that time, it contracted just 0.7 percent, after suffering through much deeper declines. That factored into the NBER’s decision to pinpoint the end of the recession in June. Any future downturn in the economy would now mark the start of a new recession, not the continuation of the December 2007 recession, NBER said. That’s important because if the economy starts shrinking again, it could mark the onset of a “double-dip” recession. For many economists, the last time that happened was in 1981-82. The NBER normally takes its time in declaring a recession has started or ended. For instance, the NBER announced in December 2008 that the recession had actually started one year earlier, in December 2007. Similarly, it declared in July 2003 that the 2001 recession was over. It actually ended 20 months earlier, in November 2001. Its determination is of interest to economic historians – and political leaders. Recessions that occur on their watch pose political risks. In President George W. Bush’s eight years in office, the United States fell into two recessions. The first started in March 2001 and ended that November. The second one started in December 2007. NBER’s decision means little to ordinary Americans now muddling through a sluggish economic recovery and a weak jobs market. Unemployment is 9.6 percent and has been stuck at high levels since the recession ended. READ the NBER’s full release: sept2010

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In The Pipeline: CoStar Development and Construction News for Sept. 12-18

September 13, 2010

In this week’s edition of Pipeline, a fund headed by businessman and NBA Hall of Famer Magic Johnson announces a partnership to kick-start development of a large mixed-use project on a long-vacant parcel in East Cambridge, MA; finally, after months of…

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David Isenberg: Are IPOA, BAPSC and PSCAI Complicit or Just Irrelevant?

August 26, 2010

Today we consider the work of Surabhi Ranganathan. She is a PhD Candidate, Cambridge University, a graduate of the New York University Law School and a consultant to the law school’s Institute for International Law and Justice . Earlier this year she published a paper in the Georgetown Journal of International Law title ” Between Complicity and Irrelevance? Industry Associations and the Challenge of Regulating Private Security Contractors .” Unlike numerous other law journal articles this is not another rehash of national or international laws . As she writes in her summary, “In this paper, I examine the reasons for and against giving serious consideration to the regulatory function of industry associations and engage in a critical evaluation of their claims to legitimacy, accountability and effectiveness as regulatory bodies.” It is important to note that she is not against private military and security contracting trade associations. Indeed, she thanks “Doug Brooks [founder of IPOA] for responding to many queries about industry associations.” In fact, she thinks they do have a useful role to play. In her introduction she writes: In discussing regulation of the private military and security industry, scholars and policy advocates do not ignore the role of industry associations, but they do sideline them. The focus is on regulation by states, or by an international office created by treaty, or a combination of the two. Such “formal” regulation is undeniably important. However, a preference for it is not irrational only insofar as it can be assumed that states and international offices are willing and able to effectively regulate PMSCs. This is often not the case. On several occasions states have shown themselves unwilling or unable (or both) to regulate PMSCs. An international office that can do so is far from being realized. On the other hand, several industry associations have come into being in the last few years, each with at least a partial mandate for regulation of PMSCs. It is surprising then that their regulatory potential has received little serious consideration. To date there does not exist a single analytical account of their activities. Little effort has been made to grapple with issues relating to the legitimacy of their regulatory claims, and the effectiveness and accountability of their regulatory activities. This paper aims to fill that gap. … To clarify, I do not argue that industry associations should replace formal regulation. Recognizing the importance of national and international regulation, and of plural regulatory initiatives, my paper supports three conclusions. First, industry associations are important contributors to better regulation of PMSCs. Second, even so, their claims to legitimacy, accountability and effectiveness are mixed, and differ for each association. Third, some weaknesses in such claims have to do with external factors, such as lack of state backing and negative public perception. However, there are other factors that associations themselves should address to bolster their regulatory claims. Now, some people are, to say the least, dubious about trade associations; suspicious of their advocacy of allowing greater industry self-regulation or avoiding further government regulation. I have been so myself, on various occasions, when their rhetoric does not match their actions. Given how well that has worked in other industry sectors (BP and the Minerals Management Service in the Gulf of Mexico anyone?) such suspicions are understandable. On the other hand the trade association, notably the International Peace Operations Association (IPOA), since renamed the Association of the Stability Operations Industry; the British Association of Private Security Companies (BAPSC); and even the Private Security Company Association of Iraq (PSCAI) have done some useful things, such as informing legislators what actually goes on in the PMSC world so useful policy can be made. And to their credit no trade association has ever said that they should replace national laws or regulations Still, there is good reason why state regulation of PSC should always come first. Ranganathan writes: In general, academic scholars and policy advocates prefer formal regulation of PMSCs for two reasons: PMSCs offer essential services that are traditionally expected of a state, and, often, their operations bring them into close proximity with vulnerable populations. This is especially true of conflict and post-conflict situations — the focus of this paper — where PMSCs are contracted to perform a range of functions, including guarding persons and property, providing logistical and operational support to the military, catering to requirements for food and living quarters during operations and post-conflict reconstruction; advising and training the military, and developing strategies for military operations, interrogation, and administration of prisons. Certainly, fears of human rights violations are well founded, as are concerns relating to compromises between state interests, military welfare and international stability, as a consequence of outsourcing to PMSCs. She then notes biases that may influence people’s preference for formal regulation such as a preference for “status quo,” “seriously flawed memories” “susceptibility to “informational cascades,” “availability heuristic.” and “extremeness aversion.” But she goes on to say the preference for formal regulation is not solely a product of our biases. There are two good reasons that support such preference. First, in theory, states (and international bodies) do have greater capacity to regulate PMSCs. Industry associations cannot impose criminal law sanctions upon wrongdoers. Their most stringent penalty is expulsion of a company from membership. In most cases, a state possesses greater power to investigate complaints relating to actions of PMSCs in the field. Moreover, a state is able to ban as well as otherwise regulate a PMSC in all cases where there is a territorial nexus or affiliation of nationality (of the company, or its employees), or where the state has concluded a contract with that PMSC. The jurisdiction of an international office may not even be limited by affiliations of territory or nationality. In contrast, companies may put themselves out of the reach of an industry association by simply withdrawing from membership. Second, there are valid grounds for skepticism relating to the legitimacy of the regulatory role that industry associations play. Not only are industry associations often private bodies; they are also in essence trade groups with close affinities to their member companies and dependence upon member companies for funds and for manning various administrative committees. These are reasonable bases for doubt about the depth of the regulatory commitment of industry associations and their independence from the particular interests of their member companies. Industry associations are rarely afforded express recognition or backing by states, and this undermines their efficacy. It is, undeniably, a challenge for industry associations to construct a plausible account of the legitimacy of their regulatory commitment. Ranganathan, however, does not dismiss the regulatory contribution of industry associations as unimportant. She considers them among the few extant regulatory agents and takes seriously their claims of being more plausible and effective regulators for the industry. After detailing their various contributions she finds “industry associations do seek to promote high standards of conduct among PMSCs through cooperation with formal regulatory initiatives. However, like coercive mechanisms, cooperative mechanisms also lack full implementation.” Perhaps that is because such associations have conflicting goals, which are essentially to be both advocate for and regulator of their memberships. She writes: The three industry associations are not just private bodies, they are also trade-associations with close links to their members and indeed are dependent upon members for the performance of their regulatory functions. Moreover, along with better standards of service, they aim to enhance contract opportunities for their members. These factors provide grounds for several concerns, among them: the possibility of spurious creation, or “capture,” of an association by the specific interests of some of its members; the difficulty of ensuring continued adherence of PMSCs to industry associations; and the lack of accountability to third parties affected by the activities of the industry associations. … The creation of an industry association could be an exercise on the part of its members to provide only the facade of regulatory constraints. A driving force for this exercise could be the members’ quest to differentiate themselves from business rivals. This is a pertinent concern given that two of the associations (BAPSC and PSCAI) were founded by their members. Another concern, however legitimate the creation of an association, is its potential for capture by the specific interests of one or few of its members at the cost of other members, non-member companies, or relevant third parties, such as populations in their areas of operation. In the case of the three industry associations, capture is made possible by the active participation of members in regulatory functions. For instance, Professor Michael Waller claims that the complaint against Blackwater was made to IPOA by competitors of the company, possibly to discredit it in a bid to seize its Iraq contract. Its competitors could also have participated in review of its conduct in what would clearly have been an abuse of regulatory process. Both the above situations are pernicious, for they indicate improper functioning of the concerned industry-association, even as the observers are lulled into false confidence about the regulated nature of the industry. In such cases we can hardly accept as legitimate any claim of the regulatory commitment of such an association. We thus need to examine what assurance we have that an industry association will act to accomplish the (regulatory) goals it prates. Ranganathan notes that, “Good faith consent by PMSCs to the regulatory authority of an association does not guarantee that the association can bind members effectively if provisions allow members to opt out without any prejudice to their interests, if penalties for violation are insufficient, or if the enforcement process is too weak to make a material impact. Like bona fide consent, effectiveness speaks to legitimacy of the association as well as to the popular support it is likely to enjoy.” She also examines the associations’ claims to legitimacy, accountability, and effectiveness. Although since PSCAI provides very little information she ends up primarily comparing IPOA and BAPSC. She finds that “IPOA clearly makes the strongest claim to order-based legitimacy” but that doesn’t mean there isn’t room for a lot of improvement. The following is specific to IPOA. I include it not to pick on it but since Ranganathan finds it has the strongest claims it is worth noting what she sees as its weaknesses. The contrasting structures of BAPSC and IPOA should not demand the conclusion that the latter performs its regulatory role better than the former. However, to the extent that both associations claim to regulate PMSCs, it may be said that IPOA displays greater structural commitment to do so. Even so, certain structural elements of IPOA do give rise to concern. These include the fact that a large chunk of IPOA’s budget comes from the dues paid by its member companies and that seats on several of the task-specific committees, including the membership and standards committees, may be had on a volunteer basis. The first fact could imply the need for greater scrutiny of structural and procedural safeguards that insulate IPOA from the interests of particular members, but it is the second which is really structurally flawed in the sense that it creates greater potential for “capture” of institutional processes by particular members. Determining committee positions by soliciting volunteers not only allows members to sit in judgment over other members, but to do so solely on the basis of their will instead of a more neutral process like rotation or random selection. Moreover, there are no institutional checks to prevent a member from volunteering for seats on several committees and for years in succession. Thus, EOD Technology, Inc. (“EODT”) has had representatives sitting concurrently on the Executive Committee, the Standards Committee and the Membership and Finance Committee in 2007 and 2008. In contrast, the membership criteria released by BAPSC indicate that at least the membership committee is elected by the BAPSC General Assembly. IPOA also espouses “transparency” as vital to its legitimacy. However, its own procedures are only transparent to a limited extent. On the one hand, its website, journal, annual reports, and papers by its staff provide a vast amount of information about organs, personnel, and member companies, and also the mechanisms employed to promote quality of service among member companies. Some commentators also note with approval that the IPOA takes on interns as evidence of the openness of its operations. On the other hand, this information changes rapidly — previously available documents become unavailable quickly. In addition, there are aspects of the association’s work that are not transparent. For instance, the association does not explain its membership decisions. It does not even provide a public record of the companies that had applied for membership and were refused. Possibly, this is motivated by prudential considerations, such as not deterring potential members from applying or current applicants from reapplying. The revelation that a company was refused membership could ironically also impair the image of the rest of the industry, because normally a refusal of membership would suggest that the applicant company was unwilling or unable to provide assurance of its compliance with the IPOA Code of Conduct. For an already prejudiced and non-discerning audience, this fact could smirch their perception of all PMSCs as unlikely to conform to the standards prescribed. It is understandable that IPOA is reluctant to contribute towards this adverse view of the industry. Even so, the lack of a public record raises doubts about the veracity of IPOA’s procedures. Given IPOA’s financial dependence on annual contributions from existing members, and its policy of allowing members to volunteer for a position on the membership committee, it is a matter of real concern that members may be able to hijack the selection process for new members. A membership decision in favor of an applicant may be influenced by an existing member’s interest in, or potential partnerships with, the applicant. Since the review process is not stringent in practice, a decision for refusal of membership may have been induced by members competing for business with the applicant. A controversial example is the repeated denial of membership to Aegis, information of which has leaked on to the Internet. Aegis is a founding member of BAPSC and PSCAI, though admittedly its reputation is far from spotless. Trophy videos of its personnel shooting at civilians are freely available on the Internet. Its chief executive is Tim Spicer, former manager of the notorious Sandline, Inc., which was involved in the “Arms to Africa” affair. However, it is not known whether either factor was relevant to IPOA’s decision. Aegis’s claims that it was “invited” to apply for membership each time it was refused have further obscured the facts. Similar criticisms can be made with respect to IPOA’s Enforcement Mechanism. At present, IPOA does not provide any information about complaints made to it. This is so despite the provision in the IPOA Code that in ordinary circumstances, submissions by complainants shall be deemed public. The IPOA also does not provide any public explanation for decisions of the Standards Committee or of the ad-hoc task forces. Indeed, the only occasion upon which the public may even [*362] be aware that a decision has been made is when a company has been expelled from membership, but there is no instance of this at present. Again, IPOA’s policies may be guided by the same concerns, mentioned earlier, that confidentiality is important to encourage PMSC participation in IPOA, and that making complaints against particular companies will harm the public image of the whole industry. News sources suggest that Blackwater withdrew from IPOA membership because it was afraid of damaging information leaks during the IPOA review of its conduct. However, for stakeholders affected by the actions of a PMSC, or for a state, or even for other member companies, the secrecy surrounding IPOA proceedings may detract from its espousal of due process. IPOA’s aim for its membership to be taken as certification of a PMSC’s high standards of service and belief that repudiation of membership will be a “commercial kiss of death” for the company is incongruous with the lack of transparency in its procedures, especially as there are no avenues for external review. Moreover, this aim is at odds with concerns that publicizing the action taken against one company will affect the reputation of all. While IPOA cannot on its own overcome audience prejudices, it can do more to assure the audience of the reliability of its decisions. Perhaps as a starting point, to compensate for lack of complete transparency, IPOA should introduce neutral oversight of its decision-making processes. Ranganathan believes that despite their flaws, the trade associations have an important role to play. She concludes: An exploration of the regulatory claims of the principal industry associations in the PMSC industry reveals a fairly sincere effort on the part of at least two of the associations to construct credible accounts of their legitimacy and accountability. Of course, there remain concerns about their structures and processes, responsiveness to third parties and their relationship (and fragmentation of authority) with each other. Critical questions also arise as to their actual capacity to regulate PMSCs. Although it is inaccurate to suggest that industry associations are irrelevant for this purpose, it is true that the absence of state backing limits the role that associations can play. Even so, their (actual and potential) role is both significant and distinct from the role played by states. Apart from prescribing codes of conduct, industry associations actually educate member companies about the standard of conduct expected from them, and, through a variety of mechanisms, persuade them to strive towards better performance standards. Moreover, they engage with individual companies at a micro level to identify and resolve problematic issues and assist governments at a broader level to understand PMSC operations and formulate policy. Their ability to “bind” members would improve tremendously if states were to view membership to these associations as a precondition for hiring PMSCs, or for permitting other consumers to hire PMSCs.

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Zipcar Expands Harvard Cars Sharing Program

August 18, 2010

BOSTON — Zipcar will expand its car-sharing service at Harvard University to drivers under 21, a move the company and school said Wednesday will make it easier for students to forgo bringing a car to campus. Zipcar said it will double its fleet of cars at Harvard to 20 to accommodate younger drivers. It also plans to partner with Zimride, an online ride sharing company, to enable Harvard students, faculty and staff to better share drives using Zipcars. Zipcar Inc. has partnered with Harvard for 10 years, making it one of the Cambridge, Mass.-based company’s oldest car sharing programs.

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Inder Sidhu: The Best the World Has to Offer: Getting the Most From Established and Emerging Countries

August 5, 2010

Have you seen the $35 touch-screen tablet computer from India that debuted in late July? No matter its shortcomings, it’s a true technical marvel at 1/20th the price of an Apple iPad. Along with the $2,500 Tata Nano — the world’s cheapest car — this new tablet is an example of world-class thinking from unexpected places. Let’s be honest: when you think engineering greatness, you tend to think of Silicon Valley, California; Cambridge, England; and Stuttgart, Germany — centers of innovation known for breakthroughs in everything from computer software to medicine to cars. But the world is changing. Not only do emerging market economies offer billions of new customers, they also produce a staggering amount of innovation and gifted thinkers. Last year, Indian native Venkatraman Ramakrishnan and Chinese native Charles Kao won Nobel Prizes for chemistry and physics , respectively. More than prize-winning scientists, emerging nations are also producing an impressive number of entrepreneurs, too. In March, for example, Business Insider published a list of 20 billionaires, including Carlos Slim and Patric Motsepe, who have built world-class companies in emerging economies . If your company does business overseas, or is considering it for the first time, then you might want to ask yourself: Are you leveraging all the innovative thinking that emerging countries produce? Smart companies not only develop products in the established world and transport that knowledge to emerging world, but they increasingly do the reverse as well. They prevail by doing both. Take Nestle. One of the Swiss company’s ” trickle up innovations ” in Australia and New Zealand is Maggi low-fat dried noodles, originally developed for India and Pakistan. A low-cost staple of urban dwellers in emerging countries, the two-minute noodles have been repackaged and repositioned as a healthy, 99 percent fat-free alternative established countries. Today, Maggi is a top seller in India, and one of the top brands in Australia. Other companies leveraging the best of both worlds include Xerox, Nokia, General Electric and Renault. Because these organizations transfer knowledge and expertise more readily around the world, they can amplify their breakthroughs and maximize their investments in research and development. This multiplier effect is not only helping in product development, but also in business and market development. Take Nokia, for example, a market leader in several emerging economies but a smartphone laggard in many established nations. To improve its market share in Western Europe and the U.S., the company is trying to leverage success achieved in the emerging world. In early 2010, for example, Nokia released the Express Music 5800 phone in the U.S. It features front-facing speakers that allow users to share music more easily. The idea for the innovation came from Africa, where Nokia provides front-facing speakers so customers can conduct low-cost conference calls. After the products were a hit there, engineers decided to upgrade the speakers and sell the device in more established economies. The key to leveraging ideas generated in one part of the world with innovations created in another is rethinking how information is shared throughout your organization, and facilitating greater collaboration between geographies. To get the most from these efforts, organizations must work through cultural impediments and institutionalized habits. This can only be accomplished by thoroughly understanding the massive differences between established and emerging economies. The two operate at different speeds and with different rhythms. Customers have different priorities, buying capabilities and usage habits, too. By better understanding the nature of these differences, your organization will be better poised to make the most of all that the world has to offer. Where there was once a border separating your organization from new opportunities, there could be a passport to a brighter future. Inder Sidhu is the Senior Vice President of Strategy & Planning for Worldwide Operations at Cisco , and the author of Doing Both: How Cisco Captures Today’s Profits and Drives Tomorrow’s Growth . Follow Inder on Twitter at @indersidhu .

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Microsoft Expanding NERD Center in Kendall Square

August 1, 2010

Microsoft is expanding its New England Research & Development (NERD) Center in the Kendall Square neighborhood of Cambridge, MA. Boston Properties signed the software leader to a long-term, 113,000-square-foot lease at One Cambridge Center. Occupancy…

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A ‘Double-dip’ Recession Defined

July 1, 2010

WASHINGTON — Concerns are rising that the economy is at risk of slipping into a “double-dip” recession. High unemployment, Europe’s debt crisis, a slowdown in China, a teetering housing market and sinking stock prices are all weighing on a fragile U.S. recovery. So what exactly is a double-dip recession? Robert Hall has an idea of what one looks like but no precise definition. He’s chairman of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of academic economists that officially declares the starts and ends of recessions. In Hall’s view, a double dip is akin to a continuous recession that’s punctuated by a period of growth, then followed by a further decline in the economy. The NBER doesn’t define a double dip any more specifically than that, says Hall, an economics professor at Stanford University. In econo-speak, Hall explains: “The idea – hypothetical because it has yet to happen – is that activity might rise for a period, but not far enough to complete a cycle, then fall again, and finally rise above its original level, only then completing the cycle.” Hall says the closest the United States has come to a double dip was in 1980 and 1981. But the NBER concluded that those were two distinct, though closely spaced, recessions – “not a double dip,” he says. Not so, says Sung Won Sohn, professor at California State University, Channel Islands. Sohn says the back-to-back recessions of the early ’80s fit his definition of a double dip: A recession followed by a short period of growth followed by a recession. Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight, has a view similar to Hall’s: A period in which the economy shrinks, starts growing again and then shrinks again – for at least six months. “There is no mathematical formula; it’s a judgment call,” Bethune says. The NBER has declared the economy fell into a recession in December 2007. It hasn’t yet pinpointed an end to the recession. It said in April that it would be “premature” to do so. Many other economists say the recession ended in June or July of last year. The economy returned to growth again in the third quarter of 2009, after four straight quarters of declines. More recently, the economy has added jobs in each of the first five months of this year. Still, the threats to the recovery from overseas and at home are growing. So are the risks that the recovery will fade out. Economists say the odds of that remain low but have crept up since a couple of months ago. Analysts are downgrading their growth forecasts for the second half of this year. In determining the starts and stops of recessions, the NBER reviews data that make up the nation’s gross domestic product. The GDP measures the value of goods and services produced in the United States. The NBER also reviews incomes, employment and industrial activity. The panel, based in Cambridge, Mass., tends to take its time in declaring when a recession has started or ended. It announced in December 2008 that the recession had actually started one year earlier – in December 2007. And it declared in July 2003 that the 2001 recession was over. It had actually ended 20 months earlier – in November 2001. In President George W. Bush’s eight years in office, the United States fell into two recessions. The first started in March 2001 and ended that November. The second started in December 2007; its end date is pending the NBER’s determination. The timing of the NBER’s decision likely means little to ordinary Americans now muddling through a sluggish economic recovery and weak job market. Many will continue to struggle. Unemployment usually keeps rising well after a recession ends. After the 2001 recession, for instance, unemployment didn’t peak until June 2003 – 19 months later.

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A ‘Double-dip’ Recession Defined

July 1, 2010

WASHINGTON — Concerns are rising that the economy is at risk of slipping into a “double-dip” recession. High unemployment, Europe’s debt crisis, a slowdown in China, a teetering housing market and sinking stock prices are all weighing on a fragile U.S. recovery. So what exactly is a double-dip recession? Robert Hall has an idea of what one looks like but no precise definition. He’s chairman of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of academic economists that officially declares the starts and ends of recessions. In Hall’s view, a double dip is akin to a continuous recession that’s punctuated by a period of growth, then followed by a further decline in the economy. The NBER doesn’t define a double dip any more specifically than that, says Hall, an economics professor at Stanford University. In econo-speak, Hall explains: “The idea – hypothetical because it has yet to happen – is that activity might rise for a period, but not far enough to complete a cycle, then fall again, and finally rise above its original level, only then completing the cycle.” Hall says the closest the United States has come to a double dip was in 1980 and 1981. But the NBER concluded that those were two distinct, though closely spaced, recessions – “not a double dip,” he says. Not so, says Sung Won Sohn, professor at California State University, Channel Islands. Sohn says the back-to-back recessions of the early ’80s fit his definition of a double dip: A recession followed by a short period of growth followed by a recession. Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight, has a view similar to Hall’s: A period in which the economy shrinks, starts growing again and then shrinks again – for at least six months. “There is no mathematical formula; it’s a judgment call,” Bethune says. The NBER has declared the economy fell into a recession in December 2007. It hasn’t yet pinpointed an end to the recession. It said in April that it would be “premature” to do so. Many other economists say the recession ended in June or July of last year. The economy returned to growth again in the third quarter of 2009, after four straight quarters of declines. More recently, the economy has added jobs in each of the first five months of this year. Still, the threats to the recovery from overseas and at home are growing. So are the risks that the recovery will fade out. Economists say the odds of that remain low but have crept up since a couple of months ago. Analysts are downgrading their growth forecasts for the second half of this year. In determining the starts and stops of recessions, the NBER reviews data that make up the nation’s gross domestic product. The GDP measures the value of goods and services produced in the United States. The NBER also reviews incomes, employment and industrial activity. The panel, based in Cambridge, Mass., tends to take its time in declaring when a recession has started or ended. It announced in December 2008 that the recession had actually started one year earlier – in December 2007. And it declared in July 2003 that the 2001 recession was over. It had actually ended 20 months earlier – in November 2001. In President George W. Bush’s eight years in office, the United States fell into two recessions. The first started in March 2001 and ended that November. The second started in December 2007; its end date is pending the NBER’s determination. The timing of the NBER’s decision likely means little to ordinary Americans now muddling through a sluggish economic recovery and weak job market. Many will continue to struggle. Unemployment usually keeps rising well after a recession ends. After the 2001 recession, for instance, unemployment didn’t peak until June 2003 – 19 months later.

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A ‘Double-dip’ Recession Defined

July 1, 2010

WASHINGTON — Concerns are rising that the economy is at risk of slipping into a “double-dip” recession. High unemployment, Europe’s debt crisis, a slowdown in China, a teetering housing market and sinking stock prices are all weighing on a fragile U.S. recovery. So what exactly is a double-dip recession? Robert Hall has an idea of what one looks like but no precise definition. He’s chairman of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of academic economists that officially declares the starts and ends of recessions. In Hall’s view, a double dip is akin to a continuous recession that’s punctuated by a period of growth, then followed by a further decline in the economy. The NBER doesn’t define a double dip any more specifically than that, says Hall, an economics professor at Stanford University. In econo-speak, Hall explains: “The idea – hypothetical because it has yet to happen – is that activity might rise for a period, but not far enough to complete a cycle, then fall again, and finally rise above its original level, only then completing the cycle.” Hall says the closest the United States has come to a double dip was in 1980 and 1981. But the NBER concluded that those were two distinct, though closely spaced, recessions – “not a double dip,” he says. Not so, says Sung Won Sohn, professor at California State University, Channel Islands. Sohn says the back-to-back recessions of the early ’80s fit his definition of a double dip: A recession followed by a short period of growth followed by a recession. Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight, has a view similar to Hall’s: A period in which the economy shrinks, starts growing again and then shrinks again – for at least six months. “There is no mathematical formula; it’s a judgment call,” Bethune says. The NBER has declared the economy fell into a recession in December 2007. It hasn’t yet pinpointed an end to the recession. It said in April that it would be “premature” to do so. Many other economists say the recession ended in June or July of last year. The economy returned to growth again in the third quarter of 2009, after four straight quarters of declines. More recently, the economy has added jobs in each of the first five months of this year. Still, the threats to the recovery from overseas and at home are growing. So are the risks that the recovery will fade out. Economists say the odds of that remain low but have crept up since a couple of months ago. Analysts are downgrading their growth forecasts for the second half of this year. In determining the starts and stops of recessions, the NBER reviews data that make up the nation’s gross domestic product. The GDP measures the value of goods and services produced in the United States. The NBER also reviews incomes, employment and industrial activity. The panel, based in Cambridge, Mass., tends to take its time in declaring when a recession has started or ended. It announced in December 2008 that the recession had actually started one year earlier – in December 2007. And it declared in July 2003 that the 2001 recession was over. It had actually ended 20 months earlier – in November 2001. In President George W. Bush’s eight years in office, the United States fell into two recessions. The first started in March 2001 and ended that November. The second started in December 2007; its end date is pending the NBER’s determination. The timing of the NBER’s decision likely means little to ordinary Americans now muddling through a sluggish economic recovery and weak job market. Many will continue to struggle. Unemployment usually keeps rising well after a recession ends. After the 2001 recession, for instance, unemployment didn’t peak until June 2003 – 19 months later.

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Euro Turmoil Sends Borrowers to Loonies, Francs Credit Markets

June 15, 2010

By Bryan Keogh June 15 (Bloomberg) — A drop in the euro to near its lowest level in four years means Canadian dollars and Swiss francs are accounting for record shares of global bond sales as investors flee turmoil in Europe’s government debt market. General Electric Co. ’s financing arm has led C$5.66 billion ($5.48 billion) of bond sales in June, 10.5 percent of the total and double the share in May, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Issuance in Switzerland’s currency jumped to 3.08 billion francs ($2.7 billion), or 5.1 percent of sales, from 1 percent in the previous month, as companies including Bayerische Motoren Werke AG of Munich tapped the market. Borrowers are seeking alternative funding sources to avoid markets more directly affected by collapsing confidence in the euro region’s ability to contain soaring deficits. Offerings in all currencies other than U.S. dollars and euros tallied $15 billion, or a record 29 percent of the $51.2 billion issued, double the proportion of a year ago, Bloomberg data show. “Investors are only too happy to diversify,” said James Camp , who helps oversee $17 billion of assets as managing director of fixed income at Eagle Asset Management Inc. in St. Petersburg, Florida. “The window for issuers may be closing and they need to look to other markets for funding.” Greece’s credit rating was cut four steps yesterday to junk by Moody’s Investors Service, underscoring concern the crisis in Europe is worsening. Camp said he’s looking for the first time at deals denominated in Canada’s loonie, nicknamed for the coin’s aquatic-bird depiction, as sales climb toward the busiest month on record. Spread to Treasuries Elsewhere in credit markets, the extra yield investors demand to hold corporate bonds instead of government debt fell 3 basis points to 198 basis points, or 1.98 percentage points, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Corporate Index shows. Yields averaged 4.119 percent. Toyota Motor Corp. sold $2 billion of bonds in its first offering since the automaker’s credit rating was cut by Moody’s. The company, based in Toyota City, Japan, sold $1.25 billion of 5-year, 3.2 percent notes at a yield of 120 basis points more than similar-maturity Treasuries, its first dollar-denominated benchmark offering in more than four years, Bloomberg data show. In its last sale of similar debt in May 2006, the world’s largest automaker sold $750 million of 5.45 percent notes at a spread of 47 basis points. Genzyme Bonds Moody’s cut its rating on Toyota one step to Aa2, the third-highest grade, on April 22 amid recalls linked to defects with accelerator pedals. Standard & Poor’s affirmed its equivalent rank of AA on May 14. Genzyme Corp., the biotechnology company that develops drugs for rare chronic diseases, issued $1 billion of debt that may be used for a stock repurchase plan, Moody’s said yesterday in a report. The company announced a stock buyback of as much as $2 billion of shares on May 6, according to a statement distributed by Business Wire. Genzyme, based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, had no outstanding debt before yesterday’s offering, according to Bloomberg data. The company’s $690 million of 1.25 percent notes issued in December 2003 were called in November 2007. Dutch lender ABN Amro Bank NV and UniCredit SpA sold 1.6 billion euros ($1.95 billion) of covered bonds, Bloomberg data show. The sales, along with a planned offering from Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg, brought issuance this month to 21.4 billion euros. Covered Bonds Sales of covered bonds, backed by mortgages or state-sector loans as well as the issuer’s pledge to pay, have risen 83 percent from May, Bloomberg data show. Borrowers are rushing to sell the notes before the European Central Bank’s 60 billion- euro purchase program aimed at freeing up lenders’ balance sheets ends this month. Sales of the debt dropped to 11.1 billion euros in May, the lowest this year, as the region’s fiscal crisis roiled investors. Benchmark measures of corporate credit risk in the U.S. and Europe fell. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index Series 14, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, declined 2.3 basis points to a mid-price of 123.1 basis points, the lowest since June 3, according to Markit Group Ltd. In London, the Markit iTraxx Europe index of credit-default swaps on 125 companies with investment-grade ratings, dropped 3.4 basis points to 126.1, the lowest since June 4, Markit prices show. Australia, Japan The Markit iTraxx Australia index declined 4 basis points to 137 as of 10:16 a.m. in Sydney, while the Markit iTraxx Japan index fell 1 basis point to 143 as of 9:10 a.m. in Tokyo, Westpac Banking Corp. and Morgan Stanley prices show. The Markit iTraxx Asia index of 50 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan rose 1 basis point to 138 as of 8:07 a.m. in Singapore, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. The indexes typically fall as investor confidence improves and rise as it deteriorates. Credit swaps pay the buyer face value if a borrower fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt. A basis point equals $1,000 annually on a contract protecting $10 million of debt. Wind Hellas Telecommunications SA’s bonds slid after Greece’s third-biggest mobile-phone operator said sales and earnings slumped in April and May and it opened talks with creditors. The company’s 1.23 billion euros of senior secured floating-rate notes due 2012 declined 10 cents on the euro to 36.5 cents, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc prices on Bloomberg. Its 356 million euros of 8.5 percent senior unsecured bonds maturing in 2013 halved in value to 7 cents on the euro, according to RBS. Spending Cuts Earnings at the Athens-based company plunged as government spending cuts and tax increases to tackle Greece’s budget deficit damaged consumer confidence and dented phone usage. The extra yield investors demand to own emerging-market bonds relative to government debt fell. Spreads tightened 7 basis points to 321 basis points, according to JPMorgan’s Emerging Market Bond index. Yields on Brazil’s interest-rate futures contracts climbed for a sixth day, the longest streak since February. The yield on the contract due in January, the most traded in Sao Paulo, rose 2 basis points to 11.16 percent as of 2:16 p.m. in New York. The yield has risen 24 basis points since June 4. Greece’s rating was lowered to Ba1 from A3, Moody’s said in a statement yesterday from London, adding the outlook is stable. S&P cut Greece to junk on April 27, the first time a euro member lost its investment-grade rating since the euro’s 1999 debut. The euro rose 1 percent to $1.2228 as of 4:16 p.m. in New York, from $1.2112. It earlier advanced as much as 1.5 percent. Global Contagion Credit markets have been rattled this year on mounting concern Greece, with the second-largest budget deficit in the euro region after Ireland, might default on its debt, causing a global contagion. The European Union announced a rescue package last month of almost $1 trillion, with support from the International Monetary Fund, to shore up the finances of the region’s weakest economies. “Companies, especially banks, want to diversify their investor base and are looking at opportunities available in different currencies,” said Andreas Fischer , a money manager at London & Capital Group Ltd., with $3 billion of assets under management. “Canada is a good example of a country with a growing economy and a sound currency.” General Electric Capital Corp., the financing unit of Fairfield, Connecticut-based GE, sold C$500 million of 4.24 percent five-year notes on June 3, its first loonie sale in nine months, Bloomberg data show. Since mid-March, the company has also issued $562 million of debt in Swiss francs, while selling none in dollars or euros. BMW Notes BMW, the world’s largest luxury car maker, issued 500 million Swiss francs of 2.125 percent, five-year notes on June 2, its first sale in the currency in 2 1/2 years. Issuance in the euro zone totaled 15.9 billion euros this month, 37 percent of all offerings, up from 25 percent in May, the smallest share since December 2006, Bloomberg data show. Companies are selling a bigger proportion of bonds in “small currencies” as issuance overall has dropped, said Ben Bennett , who helps manage the equivalent of $125 billion of corporate bonds as credit strategist at Legal & General Investment Management in London. “The sovereign problems mean there hasn’t been a huge amount of issuance full stop,” he said. “Issuers have found it more difficult to place the large deals that they’ve been used to, so they are having to look for more specific investor bases.” To contact the reporter on this story: Bryan Keogh in London at bkeogh4@bloomberg.net

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U.S. Housing Market Recovery Dependent on Jobs Growth, Harvard Report Says

June 14, 2010

By Kathleen M. Howley June 14 (Bloomberg) — Job growth will be the key factor in whether the U.S. real estate market can extend a recovery after the end of the federal homebuyer tax credit, according to a Harvard University study. High unemployment is fueling the foreclosure crisis and discouraging the household formation that drives property demand, according to the State of the Nation’s Housing report issued today by Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. The weak labor market resulted in people “doubling up,” or sharing residences, rather than buying their own home, the report said. “What happens with jobs will matter the most to the strength of the housing rebound,” said Eric Belsky , executive director for the center in Cambridge, Massachusetts. “If employment growth surprises on the upside or downside, housing numbers could too.” The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 9.7 percent last month from 9.9 percent in April, the Labor Department said June 4. For all of 2010, it probably will be 9.6 percent, the highest for any year since 1983, according to the average estimate of 82 economists polled by Bloomberg. The homebuyer tax credit of as much as $8,000 required buyers to have a signed contract by April 30 and close on a property by July 1. The credit resulted in 1 million additional home sales between February 2009, when it began, and its expiration this year, according to Lawrence Yun , chief economist of the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors. Consumer confidence now needs to improve for the market to sustain itself, he said in an interview. The percentage of consumers who planned to buy a home in the next six months fell to 1.9 percent in May after touching a seven-month high of 2.8 percent in March, the New York-based Conference Board said in a report last month. ‘Self-Fulfilling Prophecy’ “It comes down to whether consumers perceive that the market has bottomed or if they continue to wait,” Yun said. “If they wait, it pushes the market down and becomes a self- fulfilling prophecy.” Mounting foreclosures are another headwind for a real estate recovery, according to the Harvard report. There were 2.1 million loans in the foreclosure process in the first quarter, almost quadruple the number from three years ago. “The foreclosure trend is going to get worse before it gets better,” Thomas Lawler , an independent housing consultant in Leesburg, Virginia, said in an interview. “The biggest risk for housing is that you’ll see more foreclosed homes hitting the market and not have an offsetting rebound in household formation triggered by a recovering jobs market.” To contact the reporter on this story: Kathleen M. Howley in Boston at kmhowley@bloomberg.net .

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U.S. Housing Market Recovery Dependent on Jobs Growth, Harvard Report Says

June 14, 2010

By Kathleen M. Howley June 14 (Bloomberg) — Job growth will be the key factor in whether the U.S. real estate market can extend a recovery after the end of the federal homebuyer tax credit, according to a Harvard University study. High unemployment is fueling the foreclosure crisis and discouraging the household formation that drives property demand, according to the State of the Nation’s Housing report issued today by Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. The weak labor market resulted in people “doubling up,” or sharing residences, rather than buying their own home, the report said. “What happens with jobs will matter the most to the strength of the housing rebound,” said Eric Belsky , executive director for the center in Cambridge, Massachusetts. “If employment growth surprises on the upside or downside, housing numbers could too.” The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 9.7 percent last month from 9.9 percent in April, the Labor Department said June 4. For all of 2010, it probably will be 9.6 percent, the highest for any year since 1983, according to the average estimate of 82 economists polled by Bloomberg. The homebuyer tax credit of as much as $8,000 required buyers to have a signed contract by April 30 and close on a property by July 1. The credit resulted in 1 million additional home sales between February 2009, when it began, and its expiration this year, according to Lawrence Yun , chief economist of the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors. Consumer confidence now needs to improve for the market to sustain itself, he said in an interview. The percentage of consumers who planned to buy a home in the next six months fell to 1.9 percent in May after touching a seven-month high of 2.8 percent in March, the New York-based Conference Board said in a report last month. ‘Self-Fulfilling Prophecy’ “It comes down to whether consumers perceive that the market has bottomed or if they continue to wait,” Yun said. “If they wait, it pushes the market down and becomes a self- fulfilling prophecy.” Mounting foreclosures are another headwind for a real estate recovery, according to the Harvard report. There were 2.1 million loans in the foreclosure process in the first quarter, almost quadruple the number from three years ago. “The foreclosure trend is going to get worse before it gets better,” Thomas Lawler , an independent housing consultant in Leesburg, Virginia, said in an interview. “The biggest risk for housing is that you’ll see more foreclosed homes hitting the market and not have an offsetting rebound in household formation triggered by a recovering jobs market.” To contact the reporter on this story: Kathleen M. Howley in Boston at kmhowley@bloomberg.net .

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Warren Mosler: G20 Says Expansionary Fiscal Policy Not Sustainable

June 6, 2010

The G20 has dropped its support for fiscal expansion. The deficit hawks are prevailing. But why is that? We all either know or should know that operationally Federal spending is not constrained by revenues, as Chairman Bernanke stated last year, when asked on ’60 Minutes’ by Scott Pelley where the funds given to the banks came from : “…we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed.” We know that when the Fed spends on behalf of the Treasury it simply credits a member bank or foreign government’s reserve account at the Fed. We know that a US Treasury security is a credit balance in a securities account, also at the Fed. We know that buying a Treasury security means US dollars (numbers on the Fed’s spreadsheet) shift from a Fed reserve account to a Fed securities account, which adds to the ‘national debt.’ We know that government deficits = ‘non government’ saving (net dollar financial assets) to the penny, as a matter of national income accounting. And we know paying off the Treasury securities happens continuously when Treasury securities mature and the Fed simply shifts those US dollars from the securities account back to a Fed reserve account (including the interest). So why should we care if US dollars are in a Fed reserve account or a Fed securities account? We should not, yet most still do. There are two featured sides to the argument, pro and con, deficit hawks and deficit doves. The deficit hawks aren’t the problem. They have no argument that makes any sense as a point of simple monetary operations. There is no such thing as the Federal Government running out of money, being dependent on foreigners or anyone else for funding to be able to spend, and the US is not the next Greece. The problem is the deficit doves featured by the media don’t understand actual monetary operations and reserve accounting, and so they take the same ‘fundamentally wrong’ positions as the deficit hawks. The difference is nothing more than timing and degree. In effect, the media is showing only one side of the argument. To be a credible media deficit dove, you agree deficits are ‘bad’ but only in the long term, arguing that in the short term we need tax cuts or spending increases now, and deficit reduction later. You agree that deficits can be too high, but argue they have been higher, particularly in World War II, so current levels should be easily manageable, further agreeing there is a level that could not be manageable. You agree markets could be ‘unfriendly’ and a lack of confidence could translate into far higher interest rates, but argue that the current low rates for Treasury securities are the markets telling us that currently they do have confidence in the US and they are eager to fund current deficits. You agree that ‘bang for the buck’ matters and support tax cuts and spending increases based on higher ‘multipliers.’ The two ‘sides of the story’ are in fact on the same side, just with differing degrees. The media does not feature the true deficit dove story. Nor do any of the true doves have even a small piece of the administration’s ear, or the ear of anyone in Congress willing to speak out. There are maybe a hundred of them, including many senior economics professors. The nagging question is why this professional, highly educated, highly experienced collection of true doves, who happen to be correct and could get us back to full employment and prosperity in reasonably short order, does not get a fair hearing. The answer may be credentials. My BA in Economics from the University of Connecticut in 1971 doesn’t cut it, nor the fact that the very large fund I managed was the highest rated firm for the time I ran it. And my net worth never getting anywhere near a billion hasn’t helped either. Seems billionaires get celebrity status and airtime for just about anything they want to say. The same is true of the Economics professors who’ve got it right. Without being from and at the usual ‘top tier’ schools none can even get published in main stream economics journals, where submissions featuring obvious accounting realities are routinely rejected. In fact, any economist who states accounting identities and operational realities such as ‘deficits = savings’ or ‘loans create deposits’ or ‘Federal spending is not constrained by revenues’ is immediately labeled ‘heterodox’ and unworthy of serious mainstream consideration. Even the late Wynne Godley, who did have reasonable credentials as head of Cambridge Economics, and was the number one UK economics forecaster, was labeled ‘unorthodox’ because his mathematical models featured the deficits = savings accounting identity. The breakthrough could happen at any time, in addition to economists at the ‘right schools’ or right financial sector firms, there are government officials with sufficient credentials to lead the breakthrough, including the head of the CBO and OMB, the Treasury Secretary and Fed Chairman, as well as former Fed officials, particularly from monetary operations. Unfortunately Treasury Secretary Geithner, a potential hero due to the celebrity of his office, and the rest of the G20 are acting out the deficit hawk position, acting as if they do indeed believe the US has run out of money, is dependent on its creditors, and could be the next Greece. They speak as if they have no idea that the euro nations operate within a unique institutional structure that puts them in a ‘revenue constrained’ financial position similar to the US States, but with nothing equivalent to the US Treasury to run the countercyclical deficits for them. They speak as if they have no idea that the US, UK, Japan, and others with ‘normal’ central governments taxes function to regulate aggregate demand, and not to raise revenue per se. They act as if they don’t realize they can immediately make the fiscal adjustments- cut taxes and/or increase government spending- that will restore aggregate demand, employment, and output. In short, they act as if they were all still on the gold standard, an institutional arrangement where indeed government spending was constrained by revenues, and, as a consequence, the world witnessed repetitive, devastating deflationary depressions, far worse than what we’ve seen so far in this cycle. The results of unnecessarily allowing a universal lack of aggregate demand to persist are already tragic, and if policy continues along the line of this weekend’s G20 results no relief is in sight, and it could all get a whole lot worse.

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BP’s Hayward Faces Ratings Downgrade, Investor Wrath as Spill May Cost Job

June 3, 2010

By Brian Swint June 3 (Bloomberg) — BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward faces rising speculation that the worsening oil spill will cost him his job as he grapples with worried investors, rating downgrades, U.S. politicians and public anger over the company’s inability to control the crisis. Hayward will address London’s investors and analysts tomorrow, spokesman Mark Salt said by phone. Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings downgraded BP today because the costs from the accident will hurt finances. Two U.S. senators said yesterday it would be “unfathomable” for BP to pay a dividend. Criticism of Hayward grew this week after BP’s failure to stem the flow from the damaged well caused the biggest share price drop in 18 years and raised the risk the London-based company may become a takeover target. Yesterday, he apologized for comments last week that he wanted his “life back.” “The pressure is on Hayward at the moment, primarily from politicians,” said David Paterson, head of corporate governance at the National Association of Pension Funds in London. “Investors clearly will want some answers in order to understand what the long-term future for the company is.” More than 40 billion pounds ($59 billion) has been wiped off the value of BP since the April 20 explosion that killed 11 workers on the Deepwater Horizon rig. Credit Suisse said yesterday the disaster may cost BP as much as $37 billion, almost double this year’s likely profit, risking a cut in dividends. Dividend Cut “There is a question mark over the chief executive officer,” said Colin McLean , of SVM Asset Management Ltd. in Edinburgh, which holds BP shares. “The dividend will continue but be cut. A quarter or a third is quite possible.” BP paid a dividend of 56 cents a share last year. If it maintains it, the ratio of dividend to the current share price would be 9.3 percent, more than any of the company’s 18 global peers, according to Bloomberg data. Irish bookmaker Paddy Power offered even odds that Hayward will leave his post by the end of year. The New York Daily News yesterday called him “the most hated — and clueless — man in America” for his handling of the crisis. “It looks increasingly likely that heads will roll, and Tony will be in the frame,” Dougie Youngson , an analyst at Arbuthnot Securities Ltd. in London, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “The longer these things go on, the shakier things look for the company.” Under Fire Hayward, whose call tomorrow will be relayed on BP’s website, has come under fire from lawmakers after BP initially underestimated the size of the leak, starting with 1,000 barrels a day and then raising it to 5,000 barrels a day. U.S. Geological Survey and science adviser Marcia McNutt said May 27 the well may have been gushing 19,000 barrels a day. BP sheared away the riser from its leaking Gulf of Mexico well today, a precursor to the company’s attempt to lower a cap onto the leak and divert oil to ships on the surface. An attempt to plug the well with mud and debris failed last weekend. That means that the flow of oil from the well probably won’t be stopped until August, when the drilling of relief wells is scheduled for completion. Hayward apologized yesterday for what he called “hurtful” comments saying that he wanted the spill to end in order to get “his life back.” That followed comments in which he said that the environmental impact of the spill would be “very, very modest” and that the amount of oil and dispersant is tiny compared to the size of the Gulf. Improve Safety Hayward spent much of his first three years as CEO working to improve BP’s safety record after a series of accidents, including the deadly March 2005 Texas City refinery explosion that helped bring down his predecessor, John Browne . “Safety has been a major plank of Hayward’s tenure,” the National Association of Pension Funds’ Paterson said. Unlike Browne, Hayward didn’t attend Oxford or Cambridge, Britain’s most elite universities. The 53-year-old was born in Slough, England, 25 miles west of London and studied in Birmingham and then in Edinburgh, where he earned a PhD in geology in 1982. He joined BP the same year to work in the North Sea and worked in Asia, South America and the U.S. before becoming CEO in 2007. Hayward lowered BP’s operating costs and bolstered production, last year overtaking the output of Exxon Mobil Corp., the world’s biggest energy company. In March, he said the company would raise production by as much as 2 percent a year through 2015. “Hayward only just got his feet under the table and is highly regarded within the company,” said Peter Hitchens , an analyst at Panmure Gordon in London. “I don’t think Hayward will step down, but you can never rule these things out. BP is starting to be seen as a walking catastrophe.” To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net .

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BP Chief to Address Investors Amid Speculation He May Be Forced to Resign

June 3, 2010

By Brian Swint June 3 (Bloomberg) — BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward will address investors tomorrow as his handling of the worst oil spill in U.S. history prompts speculation he may be forced to leave the company. Hayward, leading BP’s effort to contain the spill in the Gulf of Mexico, will speak on a conference call with investors and analysts tomorrow, spokesman Mark Salt said in a telephone interview. Fitch Ratings downgraded BP to AA from AA+ today because the cost of dealing with the accident will hurt the company’s finances. Two U.S. senators said yesterday it would be “unfathomable” for BP to make dividend payments. Criticism of Hayward has mounted this week after BP’s failure to stem the flow from the damaged well caused the biggest share price drop in 18 years and raised the risk the London-based company could become a takeover target. Yesterday, Hayward had to apologize for comments last week that he wanted his “life back.” “The pressure is on Hayward at the moment, primarily from politicians,” said David Paterson, head of corporate governance at the National Association of Pension Funds in London. “Investors clearly will want some answers in order to understand what the long-term future for the company is.” More than 40 billion pounds ($59 billion) has been wiped off the value of BP since the April 20 explosion that killed 11 workers on the Deepwater Horizon rig. Credit Suisse said yesterday the disaster may cost BP as much as $37 billion, almost double this year’s likely profit, risking a cut in dividend payments. Dividend Cut “There is a question mark over the chief executive officer,” said Colin McLean , of SVM Asset Management Ltd. in Edinburgh, which holds BP shares. “The dividend will continue but be cut. A quarter or a third is quite possible.” BP paid a dividend of 56 cents a share last year. If it maintains it, the ratio of dividend to the current share price would be 9.3 percent, more than any of the company’s 18 global peers, according to Bloomberg data. Irish bookmaker Paddy Power offered even odds that Hayward will leave his post by the end of year. The New York Daily News yesterday called him “the most hated — and clueless — man in America” for his handling of the crisis. “It looks increasingly likely that heads will roll, and Tony will be in the frame,” Dougie Youngson , an analyst at Arbuthnot Securities Ltd. in London, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “The longer these things go on, the shakier things look for the company.” Under Fire Hayward, whose call tomorrow will be relayed on BP’s website, has come under fire from lawmakers after BP initially underestimated the size of the leak, starting with 1,000 barrels a day and then raising it to 5,000 barrels a day. U.S. Geological Survey and science adviser Marcia McNutt said May 27 the well may have been gushing 19,000 barrels a day. BP’s latest attempt to contain the leaks stalled yesterday when a saw blade attached to a subsea robot snagged while cutting the pipe from the well. BP is trying again today to sever the pipe to install a device that will divert the crude to a ship on the surface. An attempt to plug the well with mud and debris failed last weekend. That means that the flow of oil from the well probably won’t be stopped until August, when the drilling of relief wells is scheduled for completion. Hayward apologized yesterday for what he called “hurtful” comments saying that he wanted the spill to end in order to get “his life back.” That followed comments in which he said that the environmental impact of the spill would be “very, very modest” and that the amount of oil and dispersant is tiny compared to the size of the Gulf. Improve Safety Hayward spent much of his first three years as CEO working to improve BP’s safety record after a series of accidents, including the deadly March 2005 Texas City refinery explosion that helped bring down his predecessor, John Browne . “Safety has been a major plank of Hayward’s tenure,” the National Association of Pension Funds’ Paterson said. Unlike Browne, Hayward didn’t attend Oxford or Cambridge, Britain’s most elite universities. Hayward, 53, was born in Slough, England, 25 miles west of London. He studied in Birmingham and then Edinburgh, where he earned a PhD in geology in 1982. He joined BP the same year to work in the North Sea and worked in Asia, South America and the U.S. before becoming CEO in 2007. Hayward lowered BP’s operating costs and bolstered production, last year overtaking the output of Exxon Mobil Corp., the world’s biggest energy company. In March, he said the company would increase production by as much as 2 percent a year through 2015. “Hayward only just got his feet under the table and is highly regarded within the company,” said Peter Hitchens , an analyst at Panmure Gordon in London. “I don’t think Hayward will step down, but you can never rule these things out. BP is starting to be seen as a walking catastrophe.” To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net .

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BP’s Hayward Will Address Investors Amid Speculation He May Be Forced Out

June 3, 2010

By Brian Swint June 3 (Bloomberg) — BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward will address investors tomorrow as his handling of the worst oil spill in U.S. history prompts speculation he may be forced to leave the company. Hayward, leading BP’s effort to contain the spill in the Gulf of Mexico, will speak on a call with investors and analysts tomorrow, spokesman Mark Salt said by phone. Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings downgraded BP today because the costs from the accident will hurt finances. Two U.S. senators said yesterday it would be “unfathomable” for BP to pay a dividend. Criticism of Hayward grew this week after BP’s failure to stem the flow from the damaged well caused the biggest share price drop in 18 years and raised the risk the London-based company may become a takeover target. Yesterday, he apologized for comments last week that he wanted his “life back.” “The pressure is on Hayward at the moment, primarily from politicians,” said David Paterson, head of corporate governance at the National Association of Pension Funds in London. “Investors clearly will want some answers in order to understand what the long-term future for the company is.” More than 40 billion pounds ($59 billion) has been wiped off the value of BP since the April 20 explosion that killed 11 workers on the Deepwater Horizon rig. Credit Suisse said yesterday the disaster may cost BP as much as $37 billion, almost double this year’s likely profit, risking a cut in dividends. Dividend Cut “There is a question mark over the chief executive officer,” said Colin McLean , of SVM Asset Management Ltd. in Edinburgh, which holds BP shares. “The dividend will continue but be cut. A quarter or a third is quite possible.” BP paid a dividend of 56 cents a share last year. If it maintains it, the ratio of dividend to the current share price would be 9.3 percent, more than any of the company’s 18 global peers, according to Bloomberg data. Irish bookmaker Paddy Power offered even odds that Hayward will leave his post by the end of year. The New York Daily News yesterday called him “the most hated — and clueless — man in America” for his handling of the crisis. “It looks increasingly likely that heads will roll, and Tony will be in the frame,” Dougie Youngson , an analyst at Arbuthnot Securities Ltd. in London, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “The longer these things go on, the shakier things look for the company.” Under Fire Hayward, whose call tomorrow will be relayed on BP’s website, has come under fire from lawmakers after BP initially underestimated the size of the leak, starting with 1,000 barrels a day and then raising it to 5,000 barrels a day. U.S. Geological Survey and science adviser Marcia McNutt said May 27 the well may have been gushing 19,000 barrels a day. BP’s latest attempt to contain the leaks stalled yesterday when a saw blade attached to a subsea robot snagged while cutting the pipe from the well. BP is trying again today to sever the pipe to install a device that will divert the crude to a ship on the surface. An attempt to plug the well with mud and debris failed last weekend. That means that the flow of oil from the well probably won’t be stopped until August, when the drilling of relief wells is scheduled for completion. Hayward’s Apology Hayward apologized yesterday for what he called “hurtful” comments saying that he wanted the spill to end in order to get “his life back.” That followed comments in which he said that the environmental impact of the spill would be “very, very modest” and that the amount of oil and dispersant is tiny compared to the size of the Gulf. Hayward spent much of his first three years as CEO working to improve BP’s safety record after a series of accidents, including the deadly March 2005 Texas City refinery explosion that helped bring down his predecessor, John Browne . “Safety has been a major plank of Hayward’s tenure,” the National Association of Pension Funds’ Paterson said. Unlike Browne, Hayward didn’t attend Oxford or Cambridge, Britain’s most elite universities. The 53-year-old was born in Slough, England, 25 miles west of London and studied in Birmingham and then in Edinburgh, where he earned a PhD in geology in 1982. He joined BP the same year to work in the North Sea and worked in Asia, South America and the U.S. before becoming CEO in 2007. Hayward lowered BP’s operating costs and bolstered production, last year overtaking the output of Exxon Mobil Corp., the world’s biggest energy company. In March, he said the company would raise production by as much as 2 percent a year through 2015. “Hayward only just got his feet under the table and is highly regarded within the company,” said Peter Hitchens , an analyst at Panmure Gordon in London. “I don’t think Hayward will step down, but you can never rule these things out. BP is starting to be seen as a walking catastrophe.” To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net .

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BP’s Hayward Will Address Investors Amid Speculation He May Be Forced Out

June 3, 2010

By Brian Swint June 3 (Bloomberg) — BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward will address investors tomorrow as his handling of the worst oil spill in U.S. history prompts speculation he may be forced to leave the company. Hayward, leading BP’s effort to contain the spill in the Gulf of Mexico, will speak on a call with investors and analysts tomorrow, spokesman Mark Salt said by phone. Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings downgraded BP today because the costs from the accident will hurt finances. Two U.S. senators said yesterday it would be “unfathomable” for BP to pay a dividend. Criticism of Hayward grew this week after BP’s failure to stem the flow from the damaged well caused the biggest share price drop in 18 years and raised the risk the London-based company may become a takeover target. Yesterday, he apologized for comments last week that he wanted his “life back.” “The pressure is on Hayward at the moment, primarily from politicians,” said David Paterson, head of corporate governance at the National Association of Pension Funds in London. “Investors clearly will want some answers in order to understand what the long-term future for the company is.” More than 40 billion pounds ($59 billion) has been wiped off the value of BP since the April 20 explosion that killed 11 workers on the Deepwater Horizon rig. Credit Suisse said yesterday the disaster may cost BP as much as $37 billion, almost double this year’s likely profit, risking a cut in dividends. Dividend Cut “There is a question mark over the chief executive officer,” said Colin McLean , of SVM Asset Management Ltd. in Edinburgh, which holds BP shares. “The dividend will continue but be cut. A quarter or a third is quite possible.” BP paid a dividend of 56 cents a share last year. If it maintains it, the ratio of dividend to the current share price would be 9.3 percent, more than any of the company’s 18 global peers, according to Bloomberg data. Irish bookmaker Paddy Power offered even odds that Hayward will leave his post by the end of year. The New York Daily News yesterday called him “the most hated — and clueless — man in America” for his handling of the crisis. “It looks increasingly likely that heads will roll, and Tony will be in the frame,” Dougie Youngson , an analyst at Arbuthnot Securities Ltd. in London, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “The longer these things go on, the shakier things look for the company.” Under Fire Hayward, whose call tomorrow will be relayed on BP’s website, has come under fire from lawmakers after BP initially underestimated the size of the leak, starting with 1,000 barrels a day and then raising it to 5,000 barrels a day. U.S. Geological Survey and science adviser Marcia McNutt said May 27 the well may have been gushing 19,000 barrels a day. BP’s latest attempt to contain the leaks stalled yesterday when a saw blade attached to a subsea robot snagged while cutting the pipe from the well. BP is trying again today to sever the pipe to install a device that will divert the crude to a ship on the surface. An attempt to plug the well with mud and debris failed last weekend. That means that the flow of oil from the well probably won’t be stopped until August, when the drilling of relief wells is scheduled for completion. Hayward’s Apology Hayward apologized yesterday for what he called “hurtful” comments saying that he wanted the spill to end in order to get “his life back.” That followed comments in which he said that the environmental impact of the spill would be “very, very modest” and that the amount of oil and dispersant is tiny compared to the size of the Gulf. Hayward spent much of his first three years as CEO working to improve BP’s safety record after a series of accidents, including the deadly March 2005 Texas City refinery explosion that helped bring down his predecessor, John Browne . “Safety has been a major plank of Hayward’s tenure,” the National Association of Pension Funds’ Paterson said. Unlike Browne, Hayward didn’t attend Oxford or Cambridge, Britain’s most elite universities. The 53-year-old was born in Slough, England, 25 miles west of London and studied in Birmingham and then in Edinburgh, where he earned a PhD in geology in 1982. He joined BP the same year to work in the North Sea and worked in Asia, South America and the U.S. before becoming CEO in 2007. Hayward lowered BP’s operating costs and bolstered production, last year overtaking the output of Exxon Mobil Corp., the world’s biggest energy company. In March, he said the company would raise production by as much as 2 percent a year through 2015. “Hayward only just got his feet under the table and is highly regarded within the company,” said Peter Hitchens , an analyst at Panmure Gordon in London. “I don’t think Hayward will step down, but you can never rule these things out. BP is starting to be seen as a walking catastrophe.” To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net .

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Amazon.com Is Said to Be Introducing Thinner Kindle in August

May 31, 2010

By Peter Burrows and Joseph Galante May 29 (Bloomberg) — Amazon.com Inc. , the world’s largest online retailer, plans to introduce the next version of its Kindle electronic-book reader in August, according to two people familiar with its plans. The device will be thinner and have a more responsive screen with a sharper picture, the people said, who didn’t want to be identified because the plans aren’t public. The new Kindle won’t include a touch screen or color, they said. Amazon.com , which introduced the Kindle in 2007, faces increased competition from Apple Inc. ’s iPad — a color tablet device that lets users browse the Web, watch video and read digital books. The new Kindle may be aimed more at Amazon.com’s original e-reader competitors — Sony Corp. and Barnes & Noble Inc. — than the newer threat from the iPad, said James McQuivey , an analyst at Forrester Research Inc. “It’s probably likely that Amazon already had this one in mind, more out of a response to Sony than out of any response to Apple,” McQuivey said. Amazon.com may not have a direct challenger to the iPad this year, he said. Craig Berman , a spokesman for Seattle-based Amazon.com, didn’t return a call seeking comment. Amazon.com fell $1.24 to $125.46 yesterday in Nasdaq Stock Market trading. The shares have declined 6.7 percent this year. Chief Executive Officer Jeff Bezos said this week that the company was concentrating on wooing committed book readers and that a color display screen is “some ways out.” Not Ready “I’ve seen some stuff in the laboratory, but it’s not quite ready for prime-time production,” Bezos said May 25 at the company’s annual shareholders meeting. The Kindle uses a black-and-white screen that mimics the appearance of paper. The new version will have sharper contrast that makes e-books look more like real books, the people familiar with the product said. The delay during page turns also will be shortened. The iPad, meanwhile, uses a full-color LCD screen. Sony is taking on the Kindle with a touch-screen reader, which it introduced last year. Barnes & Noble ’s Nook device made its debut in October. The Kindle currently sells for $259, the same price as the Nook. Sony sells its touch-screen device for $199. The iPad starts at $499. About 6 million e-readers will be sold this year, up from 3 million last year, according to Forrester Research Inc. The Kindle has about 60 percent of the U.S. market, followed by Sony with 35 percent, the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based research firm estimates. Earlier this year, Amazon.com bought a company called Touchco, which specializes in touch-screen technology, according to the people. To contact the reporters on this story: Peter Burrows in San Francisco at pburrows@bloomberg.net ; Joseph Galante in San Francisco at jgalante3@bloomberg.net

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Samberg Traded Perch Atop $15 Billion Fund for $15 Million Illicit Profit

May 28, 2010

By Katherine Burton and Saijel Kishan (Corrects spelling of Columbia Business School in 15th paragraph.) May 28 (Bloomberg) — Art Samberg traded hundreds of stocks as he built Pequot Capital Management Inc. into the world’s largest hedge-fund firm a decade ago. One of them, Microsoft Corp., led to his downfall. Samberg and Pequot agreed yesterday to pay almost $28 million to end a six-year probe into claims that they profited in 2001 on inside information obtained from a Microsoft employee he had agreed to hire. Samberg, 69, will be barred from the investment-advisory business except for closing Pequot. Samberg said a year ago he would shut the Wilton, Connecticut-based hedge-fund manager because “public disclosures about the continuing investigation have cast a cloud over the firm and have become a source of personal distraction.” Hedge-fund investors say the settlement hasn’t tarnished Samberg’s legacy in the industry. His main fund, Pequot Partners, returned an average of 16.8 percent annually between its start in 1986 and last year, compared with the 9 percent gain by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, according to a May 2009 investor letter. “He has an outstanding record as an investor and he built a terrific business,” Leon Cooperman , who runs New York-based hedge fund Omega Advisors Inc. and has known Samberg since the two were in business school at Columbia University in the mid- 1960s, said in a telephone interview. SEC Allegations The SEC claimed in a civil action that Samberg and Pequot had illegally tapped information from a former Microsoft employee to bet on the Redmond, Washington-based software maker’s stock. The funds gained $14.8 million on the trades, according to the SEC. The agency also brought a claim against the former Microsoft worker, David Zilkha , saying he concealed his actions during an earlier probe. “The cases have two particularly troubling aspects — a hedge-fund manager trading on illegal insider information, and his tipper source who withheld crucial information about the scheme during an SEC investigation,” Robert Khuzami , the Washington-based agency’s enforcement director, said in a statement. “Both are high-priority targets.” Zilkha’s attorney, Henry Putzel, didn’t return a phone call seeking comment. Jonathan Gasthalter , a spokesman for Samberg and Pequot, declined to comment. Regulators’ interest in Pequot’s trading stretches back to at least 2004, according to documents an SEC official provided to lawmakers during testimony in 2006. Senators including Iowa Republican Charles Grassley have criticized the SEC’s decision in 2006 to close an examination of Pequot’s trades that included scrutiny of Morgan Stanley Chairman John Mack , who had worked at the hedge-fund firm. Interest was rekindled last year after investigators got copies of e-mails between Zilkha and a Microsoft colleague from a hard drive in possession of Zilkha’s ex-wife. ‘Sad Outcome’ “I don’t believe he had any intent to pursue any insider- trading, and this incident must have been a miscommunication with staff or an error in judgment that resulted in this sad outcome,” said John Trammell , chief executive officer of New York-based Cadogan Management LLC, which invests about $2.7 billion of client money in hedge funds. Trammell met Samberg in 2000. The 6-foot, 3-inch tall (1.9 meters) Samberg was born in the South Bronx, New York. His father was an electrician and his mother a secretary. Samberg graduated with a degree in aeronautics from Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in 1962. He then went to work for Lockheed Missiles & Space Co. in Sunnyvale, California, and at the same time attended nearby Stanford University part time, where he got a master’s degree in aeronautics. Starting Pequot Samberg left Lockheed in 1965 and went to Columbia Business School in New York, where he graduated with an MBA two years later. He then joined Kidder Peabody & Co. as an electronics analyst before working for investment firm Weiss, Peck & Greer in 1970. After 15 years he joined his friend John Dawson, forming Southport, Connecticut-based Dawson-Samberg Capital Management Inc. Samberg started his Pequot Partners fund while he was at Dawson-Samberg. He added other hedge funds over the next dozen years and spun off Pequot Capital, named for the American Indian tribe that populated the area, in January 1999 with about $4 billion in assets. Pequot’s assets more than tripled over the next three years, and by 2001, the firm was managing $15 billion, making it the largest hedge-fund manager in the world. Pequot’s rapid growth came in part because the firm’s traders caught the rise in technology stocks and later anticipated their decline. Business Split The success of the business caused tension between Samberg, then 60, and his 42-year-old lieutenant, Dan Benton , who managed the tech-stock portfolios. Samberg wanted to slow the growth of assets. Benton disagreed. Benton left to start his own firm, Andor Capital Management LLC, in October 2001, taking $7.5 billion in assets with him. The firm closed in 2008. Samberg, who climbed Mount Kilimanjaro, the highest peak in Africa, in 2000, has been involved in numerous charities, giving $25 million to Columbia Business School in 2006. “He is a very generous man,” said Russell Carson , a founding partner of New York-based private-equity firm Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe who has known Samberg for two decades. “He had the benefit of a good education and realized that lots of kids don’t, and he wanted to help make that available.” It made sense for Samberg to settle with the SEC, Carson said. “It was something hanging over him,” he said. “He was hurt that someone would question his integrity, because he values his integrity the most.” To contact the reporters on this story: Katherine Burton in New York at kburton@bloomberg.net ; Saijel Kishan in New York at skishan@bloomberg.net .

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Bond Distress Rises to Highest Since 2009 as Sales Vanish: Credit Markets

May 27, 2010

By Bryan Keogh and Kate Haywood May 27 (Bloomberg) — The percentage of corporate bonds considered in distress surged this week to the highest since 2009 as investors dumped debt of the neediest borrowers on concern Europe’s fiscal crisis will make it harder for them to refinance. More than 17 percent of junk bonds yield at least 10 percentage points over Treasuries, up from 9.2 percent last month, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global High-Yield Index shows. The jump is the biggest since the distress ratio rose 11 percentage points in November 2008, two months after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed. Bonds of MGM Mirage and Freescale Semiconductor Inc. joined the list this month. U.S. distressed bonds have lost 10 percent in May, according to the indexes, as credit markets seize up amid speculation Greece and other nations in Europe with rising budget deficits won’t be able to meet their debt payments. Junk bond sales plunged this month to the lowest level since March 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “It’s going to be really difficult for some of these companies to address their debt piles,” said Mark Dewar , a London-based senior managing director at FTI Consulting who advised lenders to Lehman Brothers after the U.S. bank filed for bankruptcy. “It becomes a downward spiral.” The 5.875 percent notes of Las Vegas casino operator MGM Mirage due in 2014 yield 11 percentage points more than Treasuries, becoming distressed on May 20 for the first time since December, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Freescale Spread The spread on the 9.125 percent notes due in 2014 issued by Austin, Texas-based Freescale Semiconductor , the computer chipmaker bought in 2006 by private-equity firms led by Blackstone Group LP, is 11.7 percentage points. That’s up from 7.95 percentage points on April 26, Trace data show. Elsewhere in credit markets, the extra yield investors demand to own corporate bonds instead of similar-maturity government debt fell 1 basis point to 195 basis points, or 1.95 percentage point, the first time spreads have narrowed since May 13, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Corporate Index shows. The spread peaked at 511 on March 30, 2009, and dropped to as low as 142 on April 21. Average yields rose 4.5 basis points to 4.042 percent yesterday. The difference between the two-year swap rate and the comparable-maturity Treasury note yield, known as the swap spread, declined for a third day, falling 4.6 basis points to 42.64 basis points. The spread has widened from 9.63 basis points on March 24, the narrowest since 1993. Investor Confidence An indicator of U.S. corporate credit risk fell the most in about a week, paring the biggest monthly increase since November 2008. Credit-default swaps on the Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, declined 9.9 basis points to a mid-price of 117 basis points as of 12:35 p.m. in New York, according to Markit Group Ltd. It typically falls as investor confidence improves and rises as it deteriorates. Investor confidence was boosted in Europe after the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development raised its global growth forecasts yesterday for this year and next and as China’s foreign exchange regulator said reports that it’s reviewing its euro holdings are “groundless.” European Risk Falls The Markit iTraxx Europe index of credit-default swaps on 125 companies with investment-grade ratings, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, dropped 6.1 basis points to 117.1 as of 5:39 p.m. in London, according to Markit Group Ltd. The indexes typically rise as investor confidence deteriorates and decline as it improves. Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value if a borrower fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt. A basis point equals $1,000 annually on a contract protecting $10 million of debt. The Province of Ontario sold 132.6 billion yen ($1.47 billion) of five- and 10-year bonds yesterday that were priced to yield 25 basis points and 35 basis points more than mid-swaps respectively, the top end of a range it gave investors, according to a person familiar with the transaction. The bonds’ spread is “attractive” compared with similarly rated issuers, Katsuyuki Tokushima , a fixed-income analyst at NLI Research Institute, a unit of Nippon Mutual Life Insurance Co., said in a phone interview from Tokyo. For any issuer to generate demand of more than 100 billion yen in “such volatile market circumstances is a surprise,” he said. Signs of Life Signs of life returned to Europe’s new issue bond market for the first time since the start of the region’s deficit crisis. Deutsche Bank AG , Europe’s biggest investment bank, started offering investors at least 250 million euros ($307 million) of March 2013 floating-rate notes today, adding to its existing issue, according to three people with knowledge of the sale. The additional securities may be priced at 70 basis points to 75 basis points more than interbank rates. Nestle SA , the world’s biggest foodmaker, plans to add at least $50 million to its outstanding 2.125 percent bonds due 2014, at a likely spread of 7 basis points less than swaps, a banker involved in the deal said today. McDonald’s Corp. , the world’s largest restaurant company, raised 250 million Swiss francs ($217 million) from its first sale in the currency in almost three years yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, as investors seek safer alternatives to weakened euro-denominated assets. NEC Bonds NEC Corp., Japan’s largest maker of personal computers, set coupons on 100 billion yen of three-, five- and seven-year bonds of 0.495 percent, 0.727 percent and 1.022 percent respectively, Bloomberg data show. Malaysia may price its first global Islamic bond in eight years today or tomorrow after receiving responses from Middle Eastern investors and as markets improved overnight, according to people familiar with the fundraising. Initial guidance suggested the benchmark-sized five-year sukuk note will be priced to yield about 200 basis points more than similar- maturity Treasuries, three people said, asking not to be identified. Benchmark sales are typically at least $500 million. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. In emerging markets, bond yield premiums over Treasuries declined 16 basis points to 323, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Emerging Market Bond index. Losing Favor The riskiest debt is losing favor with investors after returning about 70 percent from March 2009 through last month as credit markets and the economy recovered from the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. Junk bonds globally have lost 4.4 percent in May, on pace for the first monthly decline in 15 months and the biggest drop since November 2008, Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show. Investors pulled more than $1 billion from high-yield funds during the third week of May, after redeeming $2.1 billion the previous period, according to EPFR Global, a Cambridge, Massachusetts, research firm that tracks fund flows. Investors are unloading risky assets on concern European governments won’t be able to coordinate a response to surging levels of debt from Greece to the U.K. Spain became the focus of the crisis this week as four of its savings banks said they plan to combine to form the nation’s fifth-largest financial group, while the Washington-based International Monetary Fund said the country’s financial industry “remains under pressure.” “Debt restructuring may be needed for one or two fiscally weak euro members,” Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Mundell said yesterday at a conference in Warsaw. Junk Spreads Widen The yield spread on junk bonds has widened 7 basis points this week to 727 basis points after surging to 743 on May 25, the highest level since Dec. 9, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show. Spreads have widened 173 basis points since reaching a 30-month low of 554 on April 26. High-yield debt is rated below Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service and BBB- by Standard & Poor’s. “The market will hit massive roadblocks when companies have big principal payments coming due and they don’t have the money to repay them,” said Stefan Benedetti , a partner at Dusseldorf-based restructuring specialist Nikolaus & Co LLP. “If the bond market isn’t open, shareholders will have to hand back the keys to the banks.” While spreads have widened, they remain below the record 21.9 percentage points reached on Dec. 15, 2008, when almost 90 percent of speculative-grade securities were considered distressed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show. ‘Double-Dip’ Concerns “We haven’t seen any company reports which suggests they’re on the verge of blowing up,” said Alex Moss , a fund manager at Insight Investment Management in London. “There are concerns that contagion from Europe will lead to a double-dip recession, but company fundamentals aren’t showing this.” The market turmoil is curtailing companies’ efforts to borrow to help refinance $1.2 trillion of bonds and loans expected to come due through 2014, according to Bloomberg data. Speculative-grade companies have sold $7.55 billion of bonds globally this month, the least since March 2009, compared with $41.6 billion in April. Saudi Basic Industries Corp. , the world’s biggest petrochemicals maker, and Las Vegas-based Allegiant Travel Co. pulled bond deals this week, bringing the total to at least 21 borrowers that have postponed sales since April, Bloomberg data show. ‘Extreme Volatility’ “If financing markets stay closed for the next 12 months or longer, then there’s a problem,” said Andrew Wilmont , a London-based money manager with Axa Investment Managers U.K. Ltd. who helps oversee $5 billion of speculative-grade debt. “But right now, we’re talking about just a month’s worth of extreme volatility.” Corporate borrowers will struggle to adjust to the “powerful regime change” as a long-term process of companies and countries cutting debt damps global growth, Stephen Moyer and Michael Watchorn , money managers at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s largest bond fund, wrote in a report May 25. “We believe this distressed cycle will continue,” offering opportunities for investors to continue to pick up bargains, they wrote. “The end is not near.” To contact the reporters on this story: Bryan Keogh in London at bkeogh4@bloomberg.net ; Kate Haywood in London at khaywood@bloomberg.net

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Deutsche Bank Hires Bob Keller From Jefferies to Run a Credit-Trading Team

May 25, 2010

By Shannon D. Harrington May 25 (Bloomberg) — Deutsche Bank AG , Europe’s biggest investment bank by revenue, is hiring former Merrill Lynch & Co. trader Bob Keller as managing director to head a team of corporate credit traders. Keller, who spent nine years at Merrill before working one year at Jefferies & Co. as a company bond trader, will be based in New York and report to Masaya Okoshi , head of investment- grade credit trading in the Americas, the Frankfurt-based bank said today in an e-mailed statement. Deutsche Bank is bolstering teams that trade bonds and credit derivatives after investors moved record amounts of cash into bond funds the past year. Flows into global bond funds have averaged $1.2 billion a week since the start of 2009’s second quarter, research firm EPFR Global in Cambridge, Massachusetts, said in a May 20 report. Keller will head a group that trades the bonds and credit derivatives of utilities, oil and gas companies, said Nicholas Pappas , the co-head of flow credit trading in the Americas at Deutsche Bank in New York. “He’s very well known with real-money accounts,” Pappas said today in an interview, referring to money managers such as mutual funds that, unlike hedge funds, tend not to use borrowed money when investing. Deutsche Bank said last week it’s building an electronic trading system for U.S. corporate bonds to extend its credit business to individuals from the institutional investors it now focuses on. The bank hired HSBC Holdings Plc trader Jason Locke to start offering electronic trading of U.S. corporate bonds to customers in the Asia-Pacific region, it said in a May 17 statement. Sean George , a managing director who trades U.S. corporate bonds in New York, will manage the electronic trading effort from the U.S. To contact the reporter on this story: Shannon D. Harrington in New York at sharrington6@bloomberg.net

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Retirement At 60? Europe Faced With Cuts In Generous Benefit System

May 24, 2010

LONDON — Six weeks of vacation a year. Retirement at 60. Thousands of euros for having a baby. A good university education for less than the cost of a laptop. The system known as the European welfare state was built after World War II as the keystone of a shared prosperity meant to prevent future conflict. Generous lifelong benefits have since become a defining feature of modern Europe. Now the welfare state – cherished by many Europeans as an alternative to what they see as dog-eat-dog American capitalism – is coming under its most serious threat in decades: Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. Deep budget cuts are under way across Europe. Although the first round is focused mostly on government payrolls – the least politically explosive target – welfare benefits are looking increasingly vulnerable. “The current welfare state is unaffordable,” said Uri Dadush, director of the Carnegie Endowment’s International Economics Program. “The crisis has made the day of reckoning closer by several years in virtually all the industrial countries.” Germany will decide next month just how to cut at least 3 billion euros ($3.75 billion) from the budget. The government is suggesting for the first time that it could make fresh cuts to unemployment benefits that include giving Germans under 50 about 60 percent of their last salary before taxes for up to a year. That benefit itself emerged after cuts to an even more generous package about five years ago. “We have to adjust our social security systems in a way that they motivate people to accept regular work and do not give counterproductive incentives,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told news weekly Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung on Saturday. The uncertainty over the future of the welfare state is undermining the continent’s self-image at a time when other key elements of post-war European identity are fraying. Large-scale immigration from outside Europe is challenging the continent’s assumptions about its dedication to tolerance and liberty as countries move to control individual clothing – the Islamic veil – in the name of freedom and equality. Deeply wary of military conflict, many nations now find themselves nonetheless mired in Afghanistan on behalf of what was supposed to be a North Atlantic alliance, shying away from wholesale pullout while doing their utmost to keep troops from actual combat. Demographers and economists began warning decades ago that social welfare was doomed by the aging of Europe’s baby boomers. Some governments had been trimming and reforming, but now almost all are scrambling to close deficits in order to prevent a wider collapse of confidence in the euro. “We need to change, to adapt … for the sake of the protection of our social model,” European Union Commissioner Joaquin Almunia of Spain told reporters in Stockholm Thursday. The move is risky: experts warn the cuts could undermine the growth needed to pull budgets back on a sustainable path. On Monday, Britain unveils 6 billion pounds ($8.6 billion) in cuts – mostly to government payrolls and expenses. The government has promised to raise the age at which citizens receive a state pension – up from 60 to 65 for women, and from 65 to 66 for men. It also plans to toughen the welfare regime, requiring the unemployed to try to find jobs in order to collect benefits. Britain says it will limit child tax credits and scrap a 250-pound ($360) payment to the families of every newborn. Ministers are reviewing the long-term affordability of the country’s generous public sector pensions. Funding for Britain’s nationalized health care service will be protected under the new government, however, and should rise each year to 2015. France’s conservative government is focusing on raising the retirement age. Many workers can now retire at 60 with 50 percent of their average salary. Extra funds are available for retired civil servants, those with three or more children, military veterans and others. A parliamentary debate is planned for September. Unions in France are organizing a national day of protest marches and strikes on Thursday to demand protection of wages and the retirement age. In Spain, billions in cuts to state salaries go into effect next month, and the Socialist government has frozen increases in pensions meant to compensate for inflation for at least two years. “They’ve hit us really hard,” said Federico Carbonero, 92, a retired soldier. He said he was unlikely to live long enough to see the worst of the pension freeze, but had no doubts he would have to start relying on savings to maintain his lifestyle. Spain is cutting assistance payments for disabled people by 300 million euros ($375 million) and did away with a three-year-old bonus of 2,500 euros ($3,124.25) per new baby. It also has proposed hiking the retirement age for men from 65 to 67. Countries in northern Europe have done a far better of reforming social welfare and have unemployment systems that focus on re-employing people instead of making their unemployment comfortable, said Gayle Allard, a professor of economic environment and country analysis at the Instituto de Empresa in Madrid. Denmark and other Nordic countries are known for the world’s highest taxes and most generous cradle-to-grave benefits. Denmark has implemented a system known broadly as “flexicurity,” which combines flexibility for employers to hire and fire workers with financial security and training to prepare for new jobs. Denmark had a 7.5 percent unemployment rate in the first quarter of this year, well below the EU average of 9.6 percent. Swedish and Finnish unemployment stood at 8.9 percent. Norway, with some of the world’s most generous unemployment benefits fully funded by oil for the forseeable future, has Europe’s lowest jobless rate, just 3 percent in April. Southern European countries that have not moved toward reforming welfare in the same ways are paying a steep price. After sharp cutbacks imposed as the condition of an international bailout this month, Greeks must now contribute to pension funds for 40 instead of 37 years before retiring, and the age of early retirement is set to 60 at the earliest. Civil servants with monthly salaries of above 3,000 euros ($3,750) will lose two extra months of salary – one paid at Christmas, the other split between Easter and summer vacation. In Portugal, seen as another potential candidate for bailout, the government is focusing on hikes in income, corporate and sales taxes and has avoided drastic changes to welfare entitlements. Unemployment benefits will be cut somewhat and the out-of-work will have to accept any job paying more than 10 percent more than what they would receive in unemployment benefits. The government is also stepping up checks on welfare claims, freezing public sector pay and slicing public investment. “There’s been a lack of willingness to shift away from welfare as purely social protection towards an approach which has been in much of northern Europe in recent years, which is welfare as social investment,” said Iain Begg, a professor at the London School of Economics and Political Science’s European Institute. Otto Fricke, a budget expert for the Free Democrats, the coalition partner of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, told The Associated Press that no decisions on cuts have been made, but everything is on the table except education, pension funds and financial aid to developing countries. At least one high-ranking CDU member has called for the idea of protecting education to be re-examined, however. German public education, which was virtually free until 2005, when some of Germany’s 16 states started charging tuition fees of 1000 euros ($1,250) a year. Virtually all Germany’s students pay that much or less to attend state-funded universities, including elite institutions. Education isn’t as cheap elsewhere in Europe but the 3,290 pounds ($4,720) per year paid by British students at Cambridge is still far less than Americans pay at comparable schools like Harvard, where annual tuition comes in just shy of $35,000. The idea of cutting education is proving hard to swallow in the face of Germany’s promise to contribute up to 147.6 billion euros ($184.5 billion) in loan guarantees to protect Greece and other countries that use the euro from bankruptcy. “I am worried that this crisis will also affect me on a personal level, for example, that universities in Germany will raise the tuition in order to pay the loan they give to Greece,” said Karoline Daederich, a 22-year-old university student from Berlin. ____ Associated Press writers Juergen Baetz and Kirsten Grieshaber in Berlin, Malin Rising and Karl Ritter in Stockholm, David Stringer in London, Veronika Oleksyn in Vienna, Harold Heckle in Madrid, Elaine Ganley in Paris, Elena Becatoros in Athens and Barry Hatton in Lisbon contributed to this report.

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Twitter Investor Mike Maples Outperforms Venture Firms That Rejected Him

May 22, 2010

By Ari Levy May 22 (Bloomberg) — Mike Maples says he came to Silicon Valley from Texas in 2005 as a “washed-up” corporate-software executive aspiring to be a venture capitalist. Unable to land a job with a half-dozen firms, he put his own money to work. Five years later, his stakes in Twitter Inc., Digg Inc., SolarWinds Inc. and Chegg Inc. have turned Maples into a celebrity on Menlo Park’s Sand Hill Road, where he’s investing alongside the same firms that didn’t make him a partner. And he’s turning a profit while the rest of the industry slumps. Venture firms have lost an average of about 1 percent annually over the past decade, according to Cambridge Associates. Maples’s $25,000 investment in Twitter four years ago had multiplied by 26 times as of September, and his $500,000 stake in textbook rental company Chegg may be up even more. By catching companies at their earliest stages, sometimes before they have business plans, Maples is buying on the cheap. He also makes smaller investments than firms with billion-dollar funds, letting him tap into startups that need less capital. “We can do the wacky controversial thing that can’t make it through a venture firm,” said Maples, 42. “If the company is awesome, we’re going to be in early at such a low valuation that it’s just going to cover all sins.” For Maples, the goal is to find what he calls “thunder lizards,” a term he used at least 18 times in an hourlong interview. It’s a reference to Godzilla, which “was hatched from radioactive atomic eggs and swam across the Pacific and destroyed Tokyo,” Maples said. A thunder lizard is a company that disrupts its industry, earns a 100-fold return and makes up for all of a fund’s bad bets, he says. Some Misfires Twitter, Chegg and other investments have the potential to be thunder lizards, Maples said. Not all of his bets have panned out, though. B-Side Entertainment , which ran websites for film festivals, closed this year, and the microblogging site Pownce shut down in 2008. His biggest dud so far was an investment he didn’t make. Maples declined an early opportunity to invest in Zynga Game Network Inc., the maker of Facebook games such as “FarmVille” and “Mafia Wars.” Zynga is now worth as much as $3.3 billion, according to a February report from SharesPost Inc. and Next Up! Research. Though his Southern twang stands out in Silicon Valley, Maples isn’t a technology outsider. His father, also named Mike, was an executive at Microsoft Corp. and International Business Machines Corp. Bill Gates attended his wedding, and Maples studied engineering at Stanford University, near Palo Alto. By the time he returned to California after more than a decade in Texas, Maples had helped take two companies public, including Austin-based Motive Inc., which he co-founded in 1997. Sand Hill Road Maples says he looked for a job up and down Sand Hill Road, the center of the venture industry and home to Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers , Sequoia Capital and Benchmark Capital. Unable to find a position as a partner, he got two stints as an entrepreneur in residence — first at Foundation Capital and then at August Capital. While at August, Maples earned a reputation for spotting unusual investments, says Andy Rappaport , a partner there since 1996. “A lot of the stuff he was finding and working on and showing to us was different than many of the things that would have gotten our attention,” he said. “He was catching good entrepreneurs.” New Breed Rappaport puts Maples in a new category of investors taking advantage of open-source software and cloud computing. Those trends have pushed down the price of funding a startup. SV Angel, run by veteran investor Ron Conway , and Lowercase Capital, started by former Google Inc. executive Chris Sacca , have similar strategies — as do Baseline Ventures and First Round Capital. They routinely write checks for $500,000 or less. The success of the approach is also drawing more competition from traditional venture capitalists, which are making smaller investments and betting on untested entrepreneurs. Maples took a chance on Twitter when it had another name and a different business. He was a fan of co-founder Evan Williams , who had previously started companies focused on blogging and podcasting. By last year, Twitter was valued at $1 billion, according to a person familiar with the matter. Maples put $500,000 into textbook-rental service Chegg in 2007 after meetings with co-founders Osman Rashid and Aayush Phumbhra at a Starbucks in Menlo Park. At the time, he wasn’t even certain college students would rent books. Chegg’s Growth Chegg later attracted funding from Kleiner Perkins and Foundation Capital. Students at more than 6,400 campuses now use Chegg’s service, and sales may exceed $100 million this year, two people familiar with the matter said in November. That month the company raised $112 million in funding. Chegg was the first investment of Maples’s $10 million fund, which he raised from friends and family in 2006 after putting his own money into Twitter, Digg and SolarWinds. Two years later, pension plans wanted to invest, so Maples raised a second fund, with $35 million of institutional money. His funds are dwarfed by more established venture firms. New Enterprise Associates raised a $2.5 billion fund this year, while Norwest Venture Partners and Khosla Ventures started funds larger than $1 billion in 2009. In March, Maples changed his firm’s name to Floodgate from Maples Investments and promoted Ann Miura-Ko, a Stanford doctoral student, from investing partner to co-founder. They’re planning to raise a third fund later this year, Maples said. Ngmoco Deal Opportunities are flowing his way from people like Digg co- founder Kevin Rose , who says he introduces Maples to any promising entrepreneur he meets. In 2008, Rose told Maples about Ngmoco, a maker of games for Apple Inc. ’s iPhone. Since Maples invested, Ngmoco has created 20 top games in Apple’s App Store, and it added Kleiner Perkins and Norwest as investors. “I brought Ngmoco to him when they were just trying to get started out, before they had raised any money,” Rose said. “Now they’re killing it.” Last year, Maples got a call from Roger McNamee , co-founder of private-equity firm Elevation Partners, about Wordnik , a Web startup that’s trying to capture all of the world’s words and their meanings. McNamee invested his own money in the company to get it started. He introduced founder Erin McKean to Maples when it was time for a round of funding. “Once you’ve invested in Twitter and Digg and a few other things, then people want to be associated with the guy who’s done that,” said McNamee, a technology investor for more than 20 years. “I know Mike well and want to work with him on anything I think is important.” To contact the reporter on this story: Ari Levy in San Francisco at alevy5@bloomberg.net

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`Nervous’ Wall Street Waits for Congress to Kill Limits on Swaps Trading

May 21, 2010

By Christine Harper and Dawn Kopecki May 21 (Bloomberg) — Wall Street banks , surprised that the Senate’s financial overhaul passed with language that could curtail their derivatives trading, are now hoping the rule can be killed in Congressional negotiations. Lawmakers have been telling Wall Street the Senate provision would fail, “but it passed, so people are nervous ,” said Paul Miller , analyst at FBR Capital Markets in Arlington, Virginia. “The problem is that everybody in Congress wants it out, but nobody wants the responsibility of taking it out.” The Senate bill demands that companies like Bank of America Corp. , JPMorgan Chase & Co. , and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. conduct derivatives trading outside of their commercial banking units that benefit from federal support. They could still escape the impact if the rule is stripped out during a conference committee to resolve differences between the Senate bill and one passed by the House of Representatives in December. “There’s a reasonable chance it will remain only because anti-bank sentiment has increased since the House bill was passed,” said Robert Litan , vice president of research and policy at the Kansas City-based Kauffman Foundation, which promotes entrepreneurial economic growth. While the likelihood is hard to handicap, he said, “it’s certainly not zero.” Raj Date , a former Deutsche Bank managing director and now executive director of New York-based research group Cambridge Winter Center for Financial Institutions Policy, said he expects the rule to get watered down in conference. ‘Unmitigated Negative’ “I think that gets eliminated and we end up closer to where the House is,” Date said. Otherwise, “It’s a sort of unmitigated negative for the biggest swaps dealers.” The most likely compromise is that House and Senate members agree to conduct a study of the swaps provision, which may result in killing it eventually, said Brian Gardner , a former congressional staffer who is now senior vice president for Washington research at KBW Inc. Derivatives are contracts whose value is derived from stocks, bonds, loans, currencies and commodities, or linked to specific events such as changes in interest rates or weather. They include credit-default swaps, which act like insurance for investors in case a debt issuer can’t repay. Swaps sold by American International Group Inc. that later went sour helped push the insurer to the brink of bankruptcy and triggered a $182 billion federal bailout of the New York-based company during the near-collapse of the financial system in 2008. The new swaps rule was drafted by two-term Arkansas Democrat Blanche Lincoln , head of the Senate Agriculture Committee. Earlier this week Lincoln failed to win the Democratic primary and faces a June 8 runoff against Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter for her party’s nomination. Regulators Opposed “The conventional wisdom has been that if she gets the nomination, she has the political room to drop the provision, but as long as she’s running for re-election she’s going to want to continue to take a tough-on-banks stance,” Litan said. Regulators including Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke , Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair , and former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker , now an adviser to President Barack Obama , oppose the provision because it could drive derivatives into unregulated parts of the market and to foreign competitors. Moving Trades Customers will move their most complex derivatives trades to European banks such as Deutsche Bank AG , Credit Suisse Group AG or Barclays Capital if the legislation passes, say analysts including Brad Hintz at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York. Clients who want to buy protection will see a European bank as a stronger, better-backed credit than a U.S. derivatives subsidiary, Hintz said. U.S. commercial banks held derivatives with a notional value of $212.8 trillion in the fourth quarter, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The five banks with the biggest holdings of derivatives — JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup Inc. , and Wells Fargo & Co. — hold $206.2 trillion, or 97 percent, of that total, the OCC said. JPMorgan, the second-biggest U.S. bank by assets and the biggest dealer in the over-the-counter derivatives market, would be the most affected by the new rule, Barclays Capital analyst Jason Goldberg wrote in a note to investors today. On April 14, JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon estimated the legislation’s new trading and capital requirements for derivatives could affect revenue by anywhere from “several hundred million to a couple billion dollars.” Capital Impact The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, which represents JPMorgan and other large derivatives dealers, estimated the provision would require banks to find as much as $250 billion in new capital for the subsidiaries. “It’s hard for me to come up with what’s a worse argument than that,” Date said. “That’s tantamount to saying, ‘Well, we’re undercapitalized today and we prefer to remain undercapitalized, thank you.” Instead, he said, the industry’s argument should focus on the role that banks play in society. “The whole reason for having a banking system is you want banks to be the primary intermediaries for credit risk and interest-rate risk,” he said. To contact the reporter on this story: Christine Harper in New York at charper@bloomberg.net

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Physics Professor Katz Is Fired From Oil-Spill Advisory Team Over Writings

May 18, 2010

By Katarzyna Klimasinska and Jessica Resnick-Ault May 18 (Bloomberg) — Jonathan I. Katz , a physics professor at Washington University in St. Louis., said he was fired from the team of scientists chosen by U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu to help BP Plc control the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. “Some of Professor Katz’s controversial writings have become a distraction from the critical work of addressing the oil spill,” Stephanie Mueller , a spokeswoman for the Energy Department, said in an e-mail today. “Professor Katz will no longer be involved in the department’s efforts.” Chu brought Katz to Houston last week along with four other experts, Richard L. Garwin , a physicist and IBM Fellow Emeritus, George Cooper , a civil-engineering professor at the University of California at Berkeley, Alexander Slocum , a professor of mechanical engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, and Tom Hunter , president of Sandia Corp., which manages research for the Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration. While Katz’s early work focused on astrophysics, he now consults on a variety of physics puzzles, he said. Katz wrote articles on his personal website , including, “What Is Political Correctness,” “In Defense of Homophobia” and “Why Terrorism Is Important.” “I don’t self-censor myself,” Katz, 59, said in a phone interview today. “There’s no doubt there are things on my webpage that’ve been there for many years that are fairly controversial.” He was fired from the panel this morning, he said. He declined to specify which articles triggered the dismissal. To contact the reporters on this story: Katarzyna Klimasinska in Houston at kklimasinska@bloomberg.net ; Jessica Resnick-Ault in New York at jresnickault@bloomberg.net

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Junk Bonds’ Weakest Creditor Protection Since ’07 Doesn’t Deter New Issues

May 18, 2010

By Tim Catts May 18 (Bloomberg) — Two years after suffering $213.2 billion of losses when debt markets froze, investors in junk bonds are accepting what Moody’s Investors Service calls the weakest creditor protections since 2007. Even with housing starts hovering at their lowest levels on record, Beazer Homes USA Inc. managed to sell bonds this month on terms that allow it to add more debt. The Atlanta-based builder couldn’t even do that when it issued debentures at the height of the housing bubble in 2006 and its credit rating was seven levels higher. In a report last week Moody’s singled out CF Industries Inc. , Standard Pacific Corp. , AK Steel Corp. as borrowers offering debt on terms historically available only to higher-rated companies. “We got ourselves in trouble with that in the past and here it is again,” James Kochan , the chief fixed-income strategist at Wells Fargo Fund Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin, said of the trend toward looser debt covenants. “It’s not that surprising, but it is disturbing,” said Kochan, who helps oversee $179 billion. Lenders are letting down their guard just as worsening government finances raise doubts about the sustainability of the global economic recovery. Money managers say they have little choice but to go along. They need to find a home for the record $29.4 billion that has flowed into high-yield bond mutual funds the past 16 months from retail investors seeking to join in a rally that has produced an average 69 percent return since the market bottom in March 2009. Weaker Safeguards About 60 percent of high-yield borrowers this year offered weaker investor safeguards than on debt they issued previously, according to Covenant Review LLC, a New York-based research firm that analyzes bond offerings. Those include no limits on the amount of debt companies can have and few restrictions on using assets as collateral for future borrowing, reducing what’s available to satisfy creditor claims in a bankruptcy. “This trend represents more than an episode of ‘back to the future,’” Moody’s analysts including Alex Dill , the firm’s senior covenant officer, wrote in their report. “It reflects a weakening in covenant protections even below those existing at the peak of the market, in 2006 and 2007.” Beazer sold $300 million of 9.125 percent bonds due in 2018 on May 4 that carry lighter restrictions than its 2006 issue on the amount of debt the builder can add and how it can use money raised from selling assets. The terms also allow Beazer to double its capacity to pay dividends to shareholders even after a 90 percent drop in its stock, according to Covenant Review. ‘Poor Standing’ The company’s senior unsecured bonds are rated Caa2, which Moody’s defines as “judged to be of poor standing and are subject to very high credit risk.” Beazer was rated Ba1, one step below investment grade, in June 2006, when it issued $275 million of 8.125 percent 10-year notes. Jeffrey Hoza , a vice president and treasurer of Beazer, and Chief Financial Officer Allan Merrill didn’t return calls seeking comment. Junk bonds are rated below Baa3 by Moody’s and less than BBB- by Standard & Poor’s. Overseas Shipholding Group Inc. , the largest U.S.-based oil-tanker owner, sold $300 million of bonds in March, its first offering in six years. Debtholders gave the company the leeway to sell assets, new secured debt and pay dividends to equity holders, according to Covenant Review. The bonds, due in 2018, are rated Ba3 by Moody’s and an equivalent BB- by S&P. ‘No Resistance’ “We were not going to do a deal if we were not able to get that kind of flexibility,” said Morten Arntzen , the chief executive officer of the New York-based company. “We had no resistance to it” from potential investors, he said. Proceeds from the sale were used to repay debt under a revolving credit facility, the company said in a March 29 statement. Overseas Shipholding’s covenants are “nearly useless,” according to Covenant Review. Investors bid up the debt anyway, pushing the 8.125 percent notes to as high as 102.25 cents on the dollar last month, according to Trace, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority’s bond-price reporting system. “They’re a high-yield issuer that’s getting away with investment-grade covenants,” said Adam Cohen , founder of Covenant Review. “You shouldn’t have a high-yield bond that gives you less protection than a lot of the high-grade bonds out there.” Cash is flowing into mutual funds that specialize in high- yield debt at an accelerating pace. EPFR Global, a research firm in Cambridge, Massachusetts, estimates that before last week, investors put $8.57 billion into the funds, up from $7.33 billion in the same period of 2009. Soaring Issuance That money helped push down yields on speculative-grade bonds to 8.23 percent on April 27, the lowest since July 2007, from 21 percent in March 2009, Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show. Yields averaged 8.77 percent as of yesterday. Borrowers are taking advantage of the demand, issuing $109.1 billion of debt this year, compared with the record $162.7 billion in all of 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Investors are also snapping up junk bonds as Federal Reserve policy makers pledge to hold interest rates near zero for an “extended period” to stoke the economy. Of the 460 companies in the S&P 500 that reported first-quarter results, 77 percent said earnings exceeded analysts’ estimates, Bloomberg data show. Gross domestic product may expand 3.2 percent this year, after contracting 2.4 percent in 2009, according to the median estimate of 72 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Housing starts climbed to an annual rate of 626,000 in March, up 1.6 percent from February’s 616,000 pace, though still half the level from October 2007, according to Commerce Department data. Ratings Raised For all the concern about weaker creditor protections, Moody’s has raised the ratings on 156 junk-rated companies this year and lowered 111, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. The 1.41-to-1 ratio is the highest for any two-quarter period since at least 1999. S&P said last week the corporate default rate for speculative-grade-rated borrowers was 0.97 percent at the end of the first quarter. Relative yields that are high by historical measures offer some protection from loose covenants, according to Richard Inzunza , a money manager at Northern Trust Global Investments in Chicago, with $647 billion of assets. Junk-bond spreads average 6.36 percentage points, compared with the record low of 2.41 percentage points in June 2007, based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. “There are some deals that may have weaker covenants but we think we’re getting paid enough to participate in the issue,” said Inzunza, whose firm owns bonds of Overseas Shipholding. No End Martin Fridson , the chief executive officer of New York- based money manager Fridson Investment Advisors, said the loosening of covenants isn’t at a level yet that would signal the end of the bull market in junk bonds. Covenants are typically strengthened following periods in which high-yield issuers are blocked from the market, “and at the end of that cycle, there’s an ‘anything goes’ mentality,” said Fridson, 57, who was Merrill Lynch’s head high-yield strategist before leaving to form his own firm in 2002. “We haven’t reached that final stage.” Cracks in the junk bond rally are emerging on speculation that rising budget deficits in European countries such as Greece, Spain and Portugal may cause lawmakers to curb spending, slowing the global economy. Bond Losses High-yield bonds in the U.S. have lost 2 percent this month, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. This would be the first down month since February 2009, when they fell 3.47 percent. CF Industries, the Deerfield, Illinois-based fertilizer maker, sold $1.6 billion of bonds on April 20, before the upheaval. The debt doesn’t restrict liens on the company’s property, plants and equipment worth less than 1 percent of its assets or located outside the U.S., according to Moody’s. Previously, covenants typically had tougher restrictions that affected property worldwide. That could allow CF to use the property as security for future borrowings, reducing what’s available to pay investors in the notes in a default, according to Dill. Terry Huch , a CF spokesman, declined to comment. The loosened provision, typically used by investment-grade borrowers, first began appearing in debt sold this year, Dill said. It was included in $400 million of securities offered last month by West Chester, Ohio-based AK Steel, the third-largest maker of the metal by sales after Nucor Corp. of Charlotte, North Carolina, and Pittsburgh-based United States Steel Corp., according to Dill. ‘Like a Meme’ “Once you get a structure into the market, it replicates itself like a meme and it survives because the investors keep buying it,” Dill said. Rising demand for junk bonds has also allowed companies emerging from bankruptcy , including Houston-based Lyondell Chemical Co., which sold $2.75 billion of debt in dollars and euros on March 24 and Lear Corp. of Southfield, Michigan, which issued $700 million of notes on March 23, to borrow with few restrictions, Covenant Review’s Cohen said. Lyondell’s covenants offer no clear limits on the amount of additional secured debt the company can sell and permit it to shift as much as $1.25 billion of assets to units that aren’t covered by the bonds’ limitations, reducing the collateral available to creditors, according to a Covenant Review report. “In 2008, all the companies that we said would screw the bondholders did it,” said Cohen of Covenant Review. “Now, it feels like 2007 to me. We’re telling them they’re going to get screwed and they’re not paying attention.” To contact the reporter on this story: Tim Catts in New York at tcatts1@bloomberg.net

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Harvard Paid Mendillo Almost $1 Million in First Year Running Endowment

May 18, 2010

By Gillian Wee May 18 (Bloomberg) — Harvard University, the richest U.S. college, paid Jane Mendillo almost $1 million in 2008 to oversee its endowment and said compensation of her senior managers will for the first time be linked to the fund’s overall performance. Mendillo, who took over as president and chief executive officer of Harvard Management Co. in July 2008, said in a letter to alumni yesterday that her compensation was $999,114 in her first six months. The fund’s five top-paid inhouse money managers earned almost $26 million combined, the Cambridge, Massachusetts, university said in December 2008. Harvard previously based only the CEO’s pay on how all its endowment investments performed. Starting July 1, senior managers’ compensation also will be tied to the fund’s returns, Mendillo said in the letter. They had been paid based on how each fared compared against benchmarks for the assets they are responsible for. “HMC’s performance-related compensation has been a driver of our success for many years, helping us attract and retain the best and most experienced investment talent, and keeping overall investment-management costs in check,” she wrote. Harvard said yesterday that President Drew Faust received $822,011 in compensation in 2008, including travel expenses and the use of a home. Faust, 62, was paid $671,388 in salary and received benefits valued at $150,623, according to a report with the Internal Revenue Service. The university’s endowment dropped a record 30 percent to $26 billion from $36.9 billion in the year ended June 30 as investments declined 27 percent. Following the loss, Mendillo reduced the influence of independent firms that oversee two- thirds of the fund. Saving $1 Billion It costs about 0.3 percent of assets to manage investments internally, compared with an estimated 4 percent in hedge-fund fees and 1 percent if the school were to place its money with conventional fund managers, Mendillo said today. “HMC’s cost is a fraction of the expense of equivalent external management,” she wrote. “These differences are significant and have saved Harvard over $1 billion in management fees over the past decade.” The university plans to reduce senior manager pay in any year the endowment loses money and will review compensation each year, she said in the letter. The school is also working on getting “more favorable terms with external managers across asset classes,” by getting them to reduce fees, the sizes of funds being raised, as well as cutting the amount of time money is locked up for, she said in the letter. Class of 1969 Jack Meyer , who ran the endowment for 15 years, resigned in 2005 amid complaints by an alumni group from the class of 1969 about compensation. The alumni first criticized pay packages in 2003, calling salaries excessive in a letter to Lawrence Summers , then the school’s president. The previous year, the top six in-house managers earned a combined $107.5 million in the previous year. They said more money should be used for scholarships, even if that meant lower returns from the endowment. Mendillo has reshuffled the endowment’s staff. She fired about 50 employees last year and expanded the fund’s internal money-management team. She hired hedge-fund executives Emil Dabora and Mark McKenna from Caxton Associates LLC and Michele Toscani , a managing director for Fortress Investment Group LLC in Tokyo. She named Neil Mason chief risk officer in January. Last year, Harvard’s endowment loss was the largest in the Ivy League, which consists of eight of the most prestigious institutions in higher education. It was followed by Cornell University in Ithaca, New York, with a 26 percent decline, and Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut, which lost 25 percent. Blyth, Seidner Harvard’s highest-paid manager in 2008 was Stephen Blyth , then the managing director for international fixed income. Blyth, who was promoted last year to the head of internal portfolio management, earned $6.4 million. Blyth was followed by Marc Seidner , managing director for domestic fixed income, with $6.3 million; Stanley Zuzic , senior vice president for domestic equities, with $4.9 million; Steve Alperin , managing director for emerging-market equities, with $4.4 million; and Andrew Wiltshire , managing director for natural resources, with $3.9 million. Seidner was hired by Pacific Investment Management Co. last year. To contact the reporter on this story: Gillian Wee in New York at gwee3@bloomberg.net .

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Iran’s Uranium Deal Defended by Brazil as U.S., Allies Express Skepticism

May 17, 2010

By Nicole Gaouette and Roger Runningen May 18 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. and its European allies expressed skepticism about Iran’s agreement to swap enriched uranium for nuclear fuel, even as other nations on the United Nations Security Council said the deal may defuse tensions. “This creates an absolutely new situation,” said Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim in radio comments recorded yesterday in Tehran. Brazil, working with Turkey, brokered an arrangement that Amorim said “totally attended” to questions from nations seeking tougher economic sanctions on Iran. The U.S. and Britain said the agreement skirts international demands central to concerns that Iran is developing a nuclear weapons capability. Among the U.S. objections was Iran’s statement that it doesn’t view the agreement as an obstacle to enriching uranium to a level that UN inspectors say would be required for weapons-grade material. “Given Iran’s repeated failure to live up to its own commitments, and the need to address fundamental issues related to Iran’s nuclear program, the United States and international community continue to have serious concerns,” White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said in a statement. British Foreign Secretary William Hague said Iran would have to do “a lot more” to prove its intentions are benign. The details of the plan must be laid out “clearly and authoritatively” to the United Nations’ nuclear agency before consideration by the international community, Gibbs said. The swap brokered by Turkey and Brazil will provide Iran nuclear fuel in a form usable only in a Tehran medical-isotopes reactor and would be carried out under the supervision of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency , said Iran’s state-run Press TV. Lula, Erdogan Iran agreed to hand to Turkey about half of its enriched uranium in exchange for fuel to run the medical reactor. The deal, brokered by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan , comes as the U.S. is rallying support for tougher sanctions against the oil- producing Persian Gulf state. The U.S. said this diplomatic “pressure track” would still be pursued, especially because Iran signaled it has no intention of abandoning its main enrichment operation. Uranium can fuel a reactor for power generation or, enriched to higher degrees, form the core of a bomb. UN inspectors said in February that Iran was close to the 20 percent threshold that can open the way to a weapon. The activity of “enrichment to 20 percent inside our country will still continue,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said after the signing of the deal, according to the official Islamic Republic News Agency. ‘Deceptive Deal’ Jim Phillips , a Middle East affairs research fellow at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, said the announcement that Iran would continue enriching uranium shows the arrangement brokered by Turkey and Brazil “is a deceptive deal.” “If you take this deal on its own terms, there’s no need for Iran to continue enriching to 20 percent,” Phillips said. The approach is “one more ploy by Iran to delay sanctions,” he said. Nicholas Burns , a former undersecretary of state involved in President George W. Bush ’s efforts to rein in Iranian nuclear ambitions, said the deal “is a giant step backward” and a distraction. He described the effort as a miscalculation by Brazil and Turkey. “This is a side show,” Burns said in a telephone interview from Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts. “The real issue is to have Iran stop its enrichment program. This allows Iran to continue it. And if it allows Iran to block sanctions, that’s a big problem because it lets Iran off the hook.” ‘Vague’ on Talks The Iranian declaration is “vague” about the government’s willingness to negotiate with the five permanent members of the Security Council — the U.S., France, the U.K., China and Russia — plus Germany, Gibbs said. French Foreign Ministry spokesman Bernard Valero raised doubts about Iran’s reliability. “Let’s not forget the Iranians have made multiple contradictory statements on this subject in recent months,” he said in an e-mail. Brazil and Turkey hold two of the 10 rotating seats on the 15-nation Security Council and have been outside the talks by UN powers on possible sanctions. The Turkish Foreign Ministry said the Iran deal “showed a solution could be achieved through a diplomatic channel, and all efforts should be exerted in this way.” Russian President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia told reporters in Kiev that the countries negotiating on Iran should meet to determine if the agreement is sufficient to stave off new sanctions. Transactions, Cargo Further UN penalties might target financial transactions or authorize more aggressive steps to intercept contraband cargoes. The U.S. has talked about targeting Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has broad business and security interests. While the U.S. and its European allies said the stance on holding Iran accountable to UN resolutions hasn’t changed, Iran said its action negated any need for further action. “There is no opportunity or excuse for sanctions now,” Ali Akbar Salehi , head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, said in televised comments. To contact the reporters on this story: Roger Runningen in Washington at rrunningen@bloomberg.net ; Nicole Gaouette in Washington at ngaouette@bloomberg.net .

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SAP’s New Co-CEOs Rush for Turnaround With $5.8 Billion Sybase Acquisition

May 13, 2010

By Serena Saitto and Aaron Ricadela May 13 (Bloomberg) — SAP AG’s new co-chief executive officers Bill McDermott and Jim Hagemann Snabe are rushing to beat Oracle Corp. in software for wireless Internet transactions with a $5.8 billion acquisition of Sybase Inc. Sybase shareholders will receive $65 a share, Walldorf, Germany-based SAP said in a statement yesterday. That is 56 percent higher than the closing price of $41.57 on May 11, before the discussions became public. The deal includes about $506 million in Sybase debt, SAP spokesman Saswato Das said. With Sybase, SAP adds software that helps corporate customers run applications on mobile devices. Three months into their tenure, McDermott and Snabe are using acquisitions to reverse the sales slump that led to the departure of their predecessor, Leo Apotheker . SAP had avoided takeovers as Oracle spent more than $42 billion on 64 companies since January 2005. “This is a stake in the ground for the new regime to make a claim for some headlines, drama and a pretty good business case for buying the company,” said Joshua Greenbaum , principal of Enterprise Applications Consulting, a research firm in Berkeley, California. “McDermott and Snabe are saying, ‘Here we are.’” Sybase, which is based in Dublin, California, soared 35 percent to $56.14 yesterday on the New York Stock Exchange after the talks were reported by Bloomberg News. That was its biggest one-day gain since the company sold shares to the public in 1991. In extended trading, the stock rose to $64.50. SAP shares dropped as much as 2.6 percent to 35.12 euros in Frankfurt trading today and stood at 35.28 euros as of 9:49 a.m. ‘Shop Floor to Corner Office’ Apotheker presided over the first annual drop in revenue at the company since 2003 as customers beset by the recession refrained from purchasing new software. Oracle in December said it was winning customers at the expense of SAP, the world’s biggest maker of business-management software. Companies use SAP business applications to track orders, manage inventory levels and plan delivery schedules. Sybase makes software that helps handset users do business from mobile devices. SAP will use the purchase to cater to customers that want employees to use tablets and smartphones while working. “This will literally connect the shop floor to the corner office,” McDermott said during a conference call yesterday. Snabe, 44, started as an SAP trainee in 1990 and has run consulting and product development groups. McDermott, 48, headed global sales. The executives were named co-CEOs on Feb. 7 and have been racing to get products out the door more quickly and eliminating what they consider inward-focused projects that occupy executives’ time and do little to boost revenue. Higher Premium “It only took weeks to get all of our acts together and secure the financing,” SAP Chief Financial Officer Werner Brandt said at a conference call today. “I think this shows the agility of the new SAP.” To clinch the purchase, the executives agreed to pay 15 times Sybase’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s higher than the average 8.4 times EBITDA paid in software takeovers announced in the past year. “The deal makes sense because SAP is betting heavily on in-memory computing and mobile applications as the future of computing and Sybase brings to the table a capability for high- speed in-memory databases and a mobile application platform,” said Paul Hamerman , vice president of enterprise applications at Forrester Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts. SAP is also paying a higher premium than other acquirers. In the software industry, 1,058 deals have been announced in the last 12 months, with an average premium of 47 percent. The premium size is why Sybase management agreed not to shop the company around, said two people close to the deal. Oracle’s Sales Growth With an acquisition spree that began in January 2005 with the hostile takeover of PeopleSoft Inc., Oracle CEO Larry Ellison , 65, has turned the company into a one-stop shop for customers, moving beyond its hallmark database programs. The company’s sales almost doubled to $23.3 billion in the four years through fiscal 2009, which ended May 31. SAP’s sales rose 42 percent in the four years through 2009. Sybase CEO John Chen , 54, will continue to run Sybase as an independent unit and will join SAP’s executive board. SAP said the deal will immediately add to per-share earnings before certain costs. McDermott said SAP doesn’t plan to eliminate jobs from Sybase. SAP was advised by Deutsche Bank AG and Barclays Plc and received legal counsel from Jones Day. Sybase’s financial adviser was Bank of America Corp. and its legal adviser was Shearman and Sterling LLP. With the exception of SAP’s 2007 acquisition of Business Objects, the company’s last two CEOs, Apotheker and Henning Kagermann , largely eschewed big acquisitions. The Long Island-bred McDermott and Snabe, a Dane who lives in Copenhagen, are more open to big bets, Greenbaum said. “McDermott thinks like an American high-tech CEO and Snabe’s not far behind him,” he said. “For better or worse, McDermott’s going to inject some of that American business culture into SAP.” To contact the reporter on this story: Serena Saitto in New York at ssaitto@bloomberg.net Aaron Ricadela in San Francisco at aricadela@bloomberg.net

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SAP New Co-CEOs Rush for Turnaround With $5.8 Billion Sybase Acquisition

May 12, 2010

By Serena Saitto and Aaron Ricadela May 13 (Bloomberg) — SAP AG’s new co-chief executive officers Bill McDermott and Jim Hagemann Snabe are rushing to beat Oracle Corp. in software for wireless Internet transactions with a $5.8 billion acquisition of Sybase Inc. Sybase shareholders will receive $65 a share, Walldorf, Germany-based SAP said in a statement yesterday. That is 56 percent higher than the closing price of $41.57 on May 11, before the discussions became public. The deal includes about $506 million in Sybase debt, SAP spokesman Saswato Das said. With Sybase, SAP adds software that helps corporate customers run applications on mobile devices. Three months into their tenure, McDermott and Snabe are using acquisitions to reverse the sales slump that led to the departure of their predecessor, Leo Apotheker . SAP had avoided takeovers as Oracle spent more than $42 billion on 64 companies since January 2005. “This is a stake in the ground for the new regime to make a claim for some headlines, drama and a pretty good business case for buying the company,” said Joshua Greenbaum , principal of Enterprise Applications Consulting, a research firm in Berkeley, California. “McDermott and Snabe are saying, ‘Here we are.’” Sybase, which is based in Dublin, California, soared 35 percent to $56.14 yesterday on the New York Stock Exchange after the talks were reported by Bloomberg News. That was its biggest one-day gain since the company sold shares to the public in 1991. In extended trading, the stock rose to $64.50. ‘Shop Floor to Corner Office’ Apotheker presided over the first annual drop in revenue at the company since 2003 as customers beset by the recession refrained from purchasing new software. Oracle in December said it was winning customers at the expense of SAP, the world’s biggest maker of business-management software. Companies use SAP business applications to track orders, manage inventory levels and plan delivery schedules. Sybase makes software that helps handset users do business from mobile devices. SAP will use the purchase to cater to customers that want employees to use tablets and smartphones while working. “This will literally connect the shop floor to the corner office,” McDermott said during a conference call yesterday. Snabe, 44, started as an SAP trainee in 1990 and has run consulting and product development groups. McDermott, 48, headed global sales. The executives were named co-CEOs on Feb. 7 and have been racing to get products out the door more quickly and eliminating what they consider inward-focused projects that occupy executives’ time and do little to boost revenue. Higher Premium To clinch the purchase, the executives agreed to pay 15 times Sybase’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s higher than the average 8.4 times EBITDA paid in software takeovers announced in the past year. “The deal makes sense because SAP is betting heavily on in-memory computing and mobile applications as the future of computing and Sybase brings to the table a capability for high- speed in-memory databases and a mobile application platform,” said Paul Hamerman , vice president of enterprise applications at Forrester Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts. SAP is also paying a higher premium than other acquirers. In the software industry, 1,058 deals have been announced in the last 12 months, with an average premium of 47 percent. The premium size is why Sybase management agreed not to shop the company around, said two people close to the deal. With an acquisition spree that began in January 2005 with the hostile takeover of PeopleSoft Inc., Oracle CEO Larry Ellison , 65, has turned the company into a one-stop shop for customers, moving beyond its hallmark database programs. Oracle’s Sales Growth The company’s sales almost doubled to $23.3 billion in the four years through fiscal 2009, which ended May 31. SAP’s sales rose 42 percent in the four years through 2009. Sybase CEO John Chen , 54, will continue to run Sybase as an independent unit and will join SAP’s executive board. SAP said the deal will immediately add to per-share earnings before certain costs. McDermott said SAP doesn’t plan to eliminate jobs from Sybase. SAP was advised by Deutsche Bank AG and Barclays Plc and received legal counsel from Jones Day. Sybase’s financial adviser was Bank of America Corp. and its legal adviser was Shearman and Sterling LLP. With the exception of SAP’s 2007 acquisition of Business Objects, the company’s last two CEOs, Apotheker and Henning Kagermann , largely eschewed big acquisitions. The Long Island-bred McDermott and Snabe, a Dane who lives in Copenhagen, are more open to big bets, Greenbaum said. “McDermott thinks like an American high-tech CEO and Snabe’s not far behind him,” he said. “For better or worse, McDermott’s going to inject some of that American business culture into SAP.” To contact the reporter on this story: Serena Saitto in New York at ssaitto@bloomberg.net Aaron Ricadela in San Francisco at aricadela@bloomberg.net

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SAP Reaches Agreement to Purchase Sybase for $65 a Share, or $5.8 Billion

May 12, 2010

By Serena Saitto and Aaron Ricadela May 12 (Bloomberg) — SAP AG, the world’s biggest maker of business-management software, agreed to acquire Sybase Inc. in a transaction valued at $5.8 billion to help it fend off competition from Oracle Corp. Sybase shareholders will receive $65 a share, which is 56 percent higher than the closing price of $41.57 yesterday, before the deal discussions became public. SAP co-Chief Executive Officers Bill McDermott and Jim Hagemann Snabe are on the lookout for acquisitions to keep from losing customers to rival Oracle and reverse the sales declines that contributed to the February departure of their predecessor, Leo Apotheker . Sybase gives its new owner software that helps financial institutions analyze information. ”The deal makes sense because SAP is betting heavily on in-memory computing and mobile applications as the future of computing and Sybase brings to the table a capability for high- speed in-memory databases and a mobile application platform,” said Paul Hamerman , vice president of enterprise applications at Forrester Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Apotheker presided over the first annual drop in revenue at the company since 2003 as customers facing the economic slump refrained from purchasing new software. Walldorf, Germany-based SAP, whose software is used for payrolls and customer relations management, is contending with Oracle, which in December said it is winning customers at SAP’s expense. Sybase, which is based in Dublin, California, soared 35 percent to $56.14 at 4 p.m. on the New York Stock Exchange. To contact the reporter on this story: Serena Saitto in New York at ssaitto@bloomberg.net Aaron Ricadela in San Francisco at

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Genzyme Will Buy $2 Billion of Stock, Divest Units Amid Icahn Proxy Battle

May 6, 2010

By Elizabeth Lopatto May 6 (Bloomberg) — Genzyme Corp. , facing a proxy challenge from billionaire investor Carl Icahn , said it would buy back $2 billion in stock and sell or spin off three units that aren’t part of its main business in rare disease drugs. The Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company will repurchase $1 billion “in the near term,” and finance it with debt, according to a statement today. The other $1 billion of stock will be repurchased during the next 12 months, Genzyme said. Genzyme, the largest maker of genetic disease medicines, said it will sell, spin off or allow a management buyout of its genetic testing, diagnostics and pharmaceutical ingredients businesses. The announcement follows investor dissatisfaction stemming from contamination at the company’s Allston, Massachusetts manufacturing plant that led to shortages of some of Genzyme’s medicines, including its best-seller Cerezyme. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration may fine Genzyme $175 million in an enforcement action on the plant, the company has said. Investors will like today’s announcement “but I don’t think it will stave off Icahn completely,” said Geoffrey Porges , an analyst for Sanford Bernstein, in an e-mail today. Shares of Genzyme fell $1.02, or 1.9 percent, to $52.01 in Nasdaq Stock Market trading at 4:02 p.m. New York time. “All this is a step in the right direction,” wrote Yaron Werber , an analyst for Citi, in a note to investors. “But these decisions may be too little and too late to change the course of shareholder desire.” Icahn initiated a proxy challenge in March, nominating himself and three associates to Genzyme’s board. Icahn held 4.8 million Genzyme shares, a 1.8 percent stake, according to a Dec. 31 regulatory filing. Icahn Support Investors including Michael Obuchowski , chief investment officer for First Empire Asset Management, which oversees $3.5 billion, and David Katz , the chief investment officer of Matrix Asset Advisors, have said they support the Icahn slate. Katz also said Henri Termeer , Genzyme’s chief executive office, should be replaced. Ralph Whitworth , a founder and principal of San Diego-based Relational Investors LLC, joined the Genzyme board on April 15, and will be up for election, along with the other nine directors, at the annual meeting on June 16. An additional independent director will also be nominated, according to an agreement with Relational Investors, which held 10.6 million Genzyme shares as of Dec. 31. Whitworth declined to comment. To contact the reporter on this story: Elizabeth Lopatto in New York at elopatto@bloomberg.net .

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Google Said to Hold Talks to Buy ITA; Travel Program Firm Seeks $1 Billion

April 21, 2010

By Serena Saitto, Brian Womack and Tim Mullaney April 21 (Bloomberg) — Google Inc. is in talks to acquire ITA Software Inc., a maker of travel programs used by companies including Orbitz Worldwide Inc. and Microsoft Corp. , three people familiar with the matter said. ITA Software, based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, may seek about $1 billion, said two of the people, who asked not to be identified because the discussions haven’t been made public. The negotiations may not lead to a transaction, said the people. Google could use ITA Software’s tools, which help users find online flight information, to compete with travel-search features offered by Microsoft . The companies are tussling for share in the U.S. market for online travel, which generated $88.4 billion in sales last year, according to Sherman, Connecticut, travel consulting firm PhoCusWright Inc. “Google’s mission is to organize the world’s information, and ITA does that for travel,” said Henry Harteveldt , an analyst at Forrester Research Inc. in San Francisco. ITA Chief Executive Officer Jeremy Wertheimer and spokeswoman Cara Kretz didn’t return phone calls seeking comment. ITA investors include General Catalyst Partners and Sequoia Capital. General Catalyst Managing Director Joel Cutler and Sequoia spokesman Mark Dempster didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. Google, based in Mountain View, California, rose $4.94 to $555.04 yesterday in Nasdaq Stock Market trading. The shares have dropped 10 percent this year. Buying Spree To enter new markets while retaining its lead in search- related advertising, Google has stepped up the pace of acquisitions. It has announced at least six takeovers this year. Google has more than five times the search share of Bing in the U.S, according to ComScore Inc. in Reston, Virginia. Still, Microsoft has gained users in part because of its travel-related features. ITA has raised $111.4 million in venture capital, according to the National Venture Capital Association . ITA’s technology searches airline reservation systems for sites such as Kayak.com, Orbitz.com and Microsoft’s Bing. The company also supports sites for airlines, including Alaska Airlines Inc. and Continental Airlines Inc., administering functions such as ticket changes and managing free tickets for frequent fliers. For Related News and Information: On Google earnings: GOOG US TCNI ERN How Google compares with peers: GOOG US PPC On management changes: GOOG US TCNI MGMTCHG Google acquisitions: GOOG US CACS 21 On Google’s risk comparison: GOOG US RSKC On top technology stories: TTOP

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Autonomy Starts Acquisitions Talks, May Seek U.S. Listing, CEO Lynch Says

April 21, 2010

By Jonathan Browning April 21 (Bloomberg) — Autonomy Corp Plc , the U.K.’s second-largest software company, is starting conversations about potential acquisitions after raising 500 million pounds ($769 million) by selling convertible bonds. Autonomy, which normally targets U.S.-based companies for purchases, needed to raise the money because it can’t offer U.S. stock as part of an acquisition, Chief Executive Officer Mike Lynch said today in a telephone interview. “To get a sensible conversation going, one has to have the cash ready to go,” Lynch said. “Now that cash has been raised we’re in a position to have those conversations.” The software company, which gets about 70 percent of revenue from North America, may also consider a dual listing in the U.S., Lynch said, speaking from San Francisco after being delayed by the volcanic ash cloud. The Cambridge, England-based company has no current plans to seek a U.S. listing, he said. Shares rose as much as 1.5 percent to 1,808 pence in London trading today and stood at 1,807 pence as of 9:05 a.m. “Anything that enhances the ability for U.S. investors to buy the stock would be a positive,” Roger Phillips , an analyst at Evolution Securities, said via phone today. He added there had been a lot of interest in the past year from U.S.-based investors. First-quarter sales excluding acquisitions rose 17 percent, after an increase of 16 percent in 2009, Autonomy said today in a statement. The company last year bought U.S. software provider Interwoven Inc. for $775 million. First-quarter net income rose to $49.7 million from $34.5 million after Autonomy won orders from companies including AT&T Inc. Total sales surged 50 percent to $194.2 million. To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan Browning in London jbrowning9@bloomberg.net .

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`Renewed Appetite’ for IPOs Set to Boost Listings in Solar and Wind Power

April 15, 2010

By Mark Scott and Alex Morales April 15 (Bloomberg) — The biggest revival in stock prices since the Great Depression is reigniting interest in initial public offerings by environmental companies, spurring businesses from China to California to issue new shares. Electric automaker Tesla Motors Inc., U.S. green energy producer Ameresco Inc. and Spain’s T-Solar Global SA have filed to go public, and more companies are set to follow. “There’s renewed appetite for green IPOs,” says Luigi Ferraris , chief financial officer of Italian utility Enel SpA , which plans to sell a minority stake of its renewable energy unit Enel Green Power for $5.4 billion by the end of 2010. The initial offering would be Europe’s largest since 2007, Bloomberg BusinessWeek reports in its April 26 issue. Green companies plan to raise $9.6 billion worldwide, more than triple the total value of IPOs for the industry in 2009, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. IPOs have increased as the MSCI World Index of stocks in developed nations surged 80 percent since March 2009, recovering from a 42 percent slump in 2008 that was the biggest on record. Renewable energy projects such as wind farms and solar parks are drawing the most interest, according to Alex Klein , research director at Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Emerging Energy Research . Energy conservation and water management are also gaining financial backers. Share Offerings Of the 19 green companies that have announced IPOs since September, 12 are from wind or solar businesses, according to New Energy Finance. None have sold their shares yet. Nigel Meir of Ludgate Environmental Fund said two companies in his clean technology fund may seek to offer shares in the next 1 1/2 years. He wouldn’t name them. “Investment bankers are out there soliciting business,” said Meir of the London-based fund. “The green sector has a lot of forward propulsion.” His fund has stakes in 10 companies including agri.capital, a Germany developer of biomass plants; New Earth Solutions of Verwood, England, which turns waste into energy; and the Dutch wind turbine maker Emergya Wind Technologies BV. Chinese wind turbine producer Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co. is aiming to raise $1.5 billion in Hong Kong. The company already has a listing in Shenzhen . British solar energy producer Engyco wants to secure $1.4 billion, while its Madrid-based rival Renovalia Energy SA may raise more than $300 million. Tapping Markets San Diego-based Fallbrook Technologies Inc., a maker of efficient transmissions for vehicles, is seeking $50 million. Tesla of Palo Alto, California, plans to raise $100 million. After more than a year of “weak” equity markets, “now there appears to be a window of opportunity,” Robert Mansley , head of Credit Suisse Group AG’s European renewable energy investment banking unit, said in an interview. The industry “requires substantial amounts of capital.” Environmental companies have one advantage over many non- green rivals: state support. Countries around the world have earmarked $184 billion to fund renewable energy installations and projects such as modernizing the electricity network, New Energy Finance estimates. The U.S., Japan and European countries are tightening regulations to force companies to improve energy efficiency and cut carbon-dioxide emissions. Government Funds “A big part of the renewables market is the stimulus provided by governments,” said Chris Thiele , head of European utilities investment banking at Morgan Stanley in London. State funding may ease as governments, particularly in cash-strapped European countries, work to curb growing deficits and subsides that were too generous. Germany and Spain have cut support for solar power after together capturing about 75 percent of worldwide installations for photovoltaic panels in 2008. Czech Prime Minster Jan Fischer told the E15 newspaper in an interview published on March 8 he’d reduce rates paid to clean power producers. U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown and the Conservative opposition both plan to reduce the deficit, which at more than 12 percent of gross domestic product is the most in the Group of Seven nations. Green initiatives such as loans for homeowners who install solar panels may be trimmed by politicians under pressure to curb deficits, said Walter Nasdeo of Ardour Capital, a New York bank specializing in clean technology. Subsidies “are at the whim of whichever party is sitting in power,” he said. Solar Stocks Solar stocks have also underperformed the broader equity markets in the past year. The Bloomberg Global Leaders Solar Index , a measure of 38 companies that generate more than half of the solar industry’s revenue, has gained 6.5 percent in the past 12 months, lagging behind the 44 percent rallies for the MSCI World Index and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index . Three Chinese solar-related companies, JinkoSolar Holding Co. , Daqo New Energy Corp. and Trony Solar Holdings Co., have shelved U.S. IPOs since December, Bloomberg data show. That hasn’t stopped Enel Green Power. The electricity generator has secured $61 million in U.S. stimulus money for two geothermal power plants in Nevada. It aims to land more federal support for American wind, solar, and geothermal projects. “The U.S. offers a huge opportunity for growth,” said Ferraris, Enel’s finance director. ‘Once Backed Hope’ In its home market, the Rome-based utility benefits from rules that let it charge customers above-market prices for clean energy. Enel Green Power plans to invest $6.9 billion in renewables by 2014. All of the IPO money will help pay down its parent company’s $69 billion in debt . Before the financial crisis, even companies with few customers and unproven equipment could get funding. Steady sales from proven technology are a must, something virtually all the companies looking to list now have, said Stephen Mahon, chief investment officer at Low Carbon Investors. “People once backed hope,” Mahon said in London. “Now they back revenues.” To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Scott in London at mscott50@bloomberg.net Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.net .

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Obama Wins Backing from 46 Nations for Nuclear Security Goal After Summit

April 13, 2010

By Viola Gienger and Edwin Chen April 14 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama won commitments from 46 nations to lock down nuclear material and keep it out of the hands of terrorists. The next test will be how far global leaders will go to carry out their pledges. The final communiqué issued after two days of meetings in Washington should spur higher security standards for separated plutonium and highly enriched uranium and consolidation of scattered material at fewer locations, Matthew Bunn and other experts told reporters after the summit ended yesterday. “The summit represents a major step to overcome complacency about this threat,” said Bunn, an associate professor at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, who has advised on U.S. nuclear controls. “There’s a lot of work yet to be done, but this does represent major progress.” The presidents, prime ministers and other representatives from around the world convened by Obama endorsed the U.S. president’s timeline for securing nuclear material within four years. Obama said he set the goal because the world’s biggest security threat is the potential for al-Qaeda or other terrorist groups to acquire the materials to develop a nuclear weapon through theft or illicit sales. “We have seized the opportunity,” Obama said yesterday during a news conference at the conclusion of the summit. “The American people will be safer and the world will be more secure.” Opening the plenary session earlier in the day, Obama said the world must recognize the changed nature of the nuclear threat. ‘Cruel Irony’ “Two decades after the end of the Cold War, we face a cruel irony of history — the risk of a nuclear confrontation between nations has gone down, but the risk of a nuclear attack has gone up,” Obama said. In the communiqué, the U.S. and the other nations, which included Russia, China, India and Pakistan, pledged “sustained and effective international cooperation” to secure vulnerable nuclear material. They reaffirmed their commitment to preventing terrorists from obtaining “information or technology” required to use nuclear material and to maintain security of such supplies, according to the communiqué, released by the White House. Issues left unaddressed include the continuing production of fissile materials for weapons in countries such as India and Pakistan, Daryl Kimball , executive director of the Arms Control Association in Washington, said. ‘Wiggle Room’ The joint statement “leaves a lot of wiggle room,” said Miles Pomper, a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies in California. He, Bunn and Kimball spoke on a conference call with reporters organized by the Fissile Materials Working Group, which is backing Obama’s effort. The effect of the summit is broader than the technical subject of nuclear raw materials suggests, Finland’s President Tarja Halonen said in an interview at the summit. Because of its civilian use in energy production, such material is found in far more countries and locations than nuclear weapons. “I think it’s a good start,” said Halonen. “This is one of the perhaps easier, feasible steps forward.” Obama also got agreements from individual countries on securing nuclear material. The U.S. announced that Ukraine will relinquish its entire stockpile of roughly 90 kilograms of highly enriched uranium and convert research reactors to use lower-grade fuel. The U.S. will provide some technical and financial support, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said. Canada, Mexico Canada’s Prime Minister Stephen Harper separately announced his country will send spent highly enriched uranium to the U.S. for processing to make it unusable for a weapon. Canada also joined with the U.S. and Mexico in a plan to convert highly enriched uranium from a Mexican research reactor, removing high-grade material from the country. Chile previously has agreed to give up its stockpile. In another step, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov yesterday signed a protocol for each side to dispose of 34 metric tons of weapons- grade plutonium, enough material for about 17,000 nuclear weapons. In addition, Obama said several nations at the summit, including Argentina, agreed to bolster security at ports to block smuggling of nuclear material. Country Exposed Obama’s campaign may not have helped him on other nuclear issues in the U.S. Congress, where he faces criticism from Republicans that a nuclear-arms reduction treaty with Russia and his plan to scale back the use of atomic weapons in the nation’s defense leaves the country exposed. “The summit’s purported accomplishment is a nonbinding communiqué that largely restates current policy,” said Arizona Senator Jon Kyl , the chamber’s second-ranking Republican. “The greatest threat of nuclear proliferation and terrorism comes from Iran, which has for years supported terrorists and is growing closer and closer to having a nuclear weapons capability.” Iran and North Korea weren’t invited to the summit and weren’t directly on the agenda. Obama said at the news conference that the United Nations is moving toward tougher sanctions if Iran doesn’t comply with demands it halt enrichment of uranium. Cooperation on sanctions is a sign that “international diplomacy” is making it more possible to isolate countries like Iran and North Korea. “I want to see us move forward boldly and quickly,” Obama said. To contact the reporters on this story: Viola Gienger in Washington at vgienger@bloomberg.net ; Edwin Chen in Washington at echen32@bloomberg.net

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Emerging Markets Overtake G-7 Currencies With Lowest Volatility Since 2008

April 12, 2010

By Ye Xie April 12 (Bloomberg) — Traders in currency options are showing that emerging economies have become safer relative to developed nations than at any time in almost two years. Three-month implied volatility for the seven biggest developing country currencies fell to 10 percent in March compared with 11.4 percent for industrialized nations, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes. The gap is the widest since July 2008. So far this year, eight of the 10 best-performing currencies are from emerging markets. The record U.S. budget deficit , Europe’s bailout of Greece and the prospect of a hung parliament in the U.K. are increasing the risk of losses in dollars, euros and pounds. In developing markets, the deficit fell to one-third the level of advanced nations this year and the economies are growing twice as fast as the U.S., the International Monetary Fund says. “The global perception of risk is changing,” said Jerome Booth , who helps manage $32 billion in emerging-market assets as the head of research at Ashmore Investment Management Ltd. in London. “Where you want to be is non-leveraged places, and that means anything in emerging-markets. This is a start of a trend. The rally in emerging-markets has barely started yet.” Global Recovery That’s a switch from three years ago, when record-low volatility was fueled by investors underestimating the risks of leverage. Now, volatility is declining in developing markets as countries from China to Brazil lead the global recovery, while swelling budget deficits in the U.K. and U.S. will weaken those nations’ currencies, Booth said. China’s imports surged 66 percent in March from a year earlier, causing the country’s first trade deficit since 2004. The rise in imports helps the global economic recovery, Huang Guohua , the head of the customs bureau’s statistics department, said on April 9. In Turkey, the lira climbed 6.8 percent against the euro this year to the strongest level since December 2008. Gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, lagging behind only China among the Group of 20 nations. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecasts the expansion may help Turkey’s $620-billion economy overtake Germany to become the third-biggest in Europe by 2050. The implied volatility for the lira is below that of the pound by the most since 2000. The lira was forecast to fluctuate at an annual rate of 10.6 percent in the next three months, as of March 30, 2.7 percentage points less than the pound, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “Dropping volatility says: ‘Buy, buy, buy,” said Sebastien Galy , a currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA in New York. U.K. Budget In the U.K., the pound is down 4.6 percent versus the dollar this year and has fallen against 14 of 16 most-traded currencies, including an 11 percent drop against the Mexican peso. National elections are raising the prospect that U.K. voters may fail to elect a governing majority for the first time since 1974. A weakened government may struggle to enact budget cuts with the nation’s debt set to almost double. The euro has lost 12 percent versus the Mexican peso this year as Europe weighed options to help Greece avoid default on its debt. European governments offered Greece a rescue package worth as much as 45 billion euros ($61 billion) yesterday at below-market interest rates. “Investors had a bit of a blasé attitude prior to the Greek situation,” said Robert Stewart , who oversees $74 billion as the head of currencies at JPMorgan Asset Management in London. “Investors are slowly awakening to the reality.” Hyper-Inflation Three decades ago, emerging-market currencies fluctuated the most amid debt crises and hyper-inflation. Mexico defaulted in 1982 while the Asian financial crisis that started in 1997 wiped out one third of the region’s economy. Now it’s developed countries that are dealing with the biggest debt. The administration of President Barack Obama predicts its budget deficit will swell to a record $1.6 trillion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30. Moody’s Investors Service forecasts that the U.S. will spend more on debt service as a percentage of revenue this year than any other top-rated country except the U.K. Emerging nations are moving in the opposite direction. The budget deficit for developing countries will fall to 2.8 percent of their economies this year, from 4 percent in 2009, according to an IMF report in November. Industrialized governments’ budget gap will decline to 8.1 percent from 8.9 percent, the Washington-based fund said. Developing nations reduced their foreign debt to 26 percent of GDP last year from 41 percent in 1999, while advanced nations’ debt may surge to 106.7 percent of GDP this year from 78.2 percent in 2007, according to IMF data. Credit Crisis In July 2007, the JPMorgan Emerging Market Volatility Index fell to a record low of 5.8 percent as central banks made their interest-rate and currency moves more predictable. When credit markets froze later that year, the index began rising and hit a record 35.8 percent in October 2008, one month after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed. The JPMorgan G-7 Volatility Index , including the euro, the pound and the yen, reached 26.6 percent. Emerging-market volatility is falling again as the Mexican peso and the Malaysian ringgit gained 7.4 percent versus the dollar this year, the best performers in the world after the Costa Rican colon. Mexico’s government forecasts it will keep the budget deficit at 2.8 percent of GDP this year after lowering spending and increasing taxes even as the economy shrank 6.5 percent in 2009 in its worst recession since 1932. Mexican Peso The implied volatility of the Mexican peso was 1.39 percentage points below that of the euro as of April 1, the most since October 2008, according to Bloomberg data. Exports from Malaysia, South Korea and Taiwan are growing to feed demand in China, which is leading the global economic recovery. Overseas shipments from Malaysia rose 18.4 percent in February from a year earlier. The central bank has raised its growth forecast for Southeast Asia’s third-largest economy, predicting an expansion of as much as 5.5 percent this year, the fastest since 2007. Korea exports climbed 35.1 percent in March from a year earlier, while Taiwan’s surged 50.1 percent. Overlooking Risks? Investors may be overlooking the risks of developing- nations, said Harald Hild , a money manager at Quaesta Capital Optivest AG in Switzerland, which oversees about $1 billion. The South African rand, Colombian peso and Brazilian real have increased more than 20 percent in the past year against the dollar, making their exports more expensive. These countries are also “highly dependent” on the U.S. and may falter should America’s economic recovery stumble, he said. “It’s really amazing how strong the risk appetite is for emerging-market currencies,” said Hild, who has traded currency options for 16 years. “I’m not sure how long this will hold.” Countries from Chile to China may lure $722 billion in overseas investment this year, 66 percent more than in 2009, the Washington-based Institute of International Finance said in January. Developing-nation bond funds attracted $7 billion this year, pushing assets under management to a record $74.7 billion, according to Cambridge, Massachusetts-based research company EPFR Global. Falling volatility is making emerging-market currencies more attractive, especially to investors in carry trades, said Thanos Papasavvas , head of currency management at Investec Asset Management in London. In such trades, investors borrow in countries with low interest rates to buy financial assets in those with higher yields. “You’ll see the appreciation of emerging-market currencies versus developed-market currencies as a long-term, strategic trend,” said JPMorgan’s Stewart. “Investors will allocate more to emerging markets.” To contact the reporter on this story: Ye Xie in New York at yxie6@bloomberg.net

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Emerging Markets Overtake G7 Currencies With Lowest Volatility Since 2008

April 11, 2010

By Ye Xie April 12 (Bloomberg) — Traders in currency options are showing that emerging economies have become safer relative to developed nations than at any time in almost two years. Three-month implied volatility for the seven biggest developing country currencies fell to 10 percent in March compared with 11.4 percent for industrialized nations, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes. The gap is the widest since July 2008. So far this year, eight of the 10 best-performing currencies are from emerging markets. The record U.S. budget deficit , Europe’s bailout of Greece and the prospect of a hung parliament in the U.K. are increasing the risk of losses in dollars, euros and pounds. In developing markets, the deficit fell to one-third the level of advanced nations this year and the economies are growing twice as fast as the U.S., the International Monetary Fund says. “The global perception of risk is changing,” said Jerome Booth , who helps manage $32 billion in emerging-market assets as the head of research at Ashmore Investment Management Ltd. in London. “Where you want to be is non-leveraged places, and that means anything in emerging-markets. This is a start of a trend. The rally in emerging-markets has barely started yet.” Global Recovery That’s a switch from three years ago, when record-low volatility was fueled by investors underestimating the risks of leverage. Now, volatility is declining in developing markets as countries from China to Brazil lead the global recovery, while swelling budget deficits in the U.K. and U.S. will weaken those nations’ currencies, Booth said. China’s imports surged 66 percent in March from a year earlier, causing the country’s first trade deficit since 2004. The rise in imports helps the global economic recovery, Huang Guohua , the head of the customs bureau’s statistics department, said on April 9. In Turkey, the lira climbed 6.8 percent against the euro this year to the strongest level since December 2008. Gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, lagging behind only China among the Group of 20 nations. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecasts the expansion may help Turkey’s $620-billion economy overtake Germany to become the third-biggest in Europe by 2050. The implied volatility for the lira is below that of the pound by the most since 2000. The lira was forecast to fluctuate at an annual rate of 10.6 percent in the next three months, as of March 30, 2.7 percentage points less than the pound, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “Dropping volatility says: ‘Buy, buy, buy,” said Sebastien Galy , a currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA in New York. U.K. Budget In the U.K., the pound is down 4.6 percent versus the dollar this year and has fallen against 14 of 16 most-traded currencies, including an 11 percent drop against the Mexican peso. National elections are raising the prospect that U.K. voters may fail to elect a governing majority for the first time since 1974. A weakened government may struggle to enact budget cuts with the nation’s debt set to almost double. The euro has lost 12 percent versus the Mexican peso this year as Europe weighed options to help Greece avoid default on its debt. European governments offered Greece a rescue package worth as much as 45 billion euros ($61 billion) yesterday at below-market interest rates. “Investors had a bit of a blasé attitude prior to the Greek situation,” said Robert Stewart , who oversees $74 billion as the head of currencies at JPMorgan Asset Management in London. “Investors are slowly awakening to the reality.” Hyper-Inflation Three decades ago, emerging-market currencies fluctuated the most amid debt crises and hyper-inflation. Mexico defaulted in 1982 while the Asian financial crisis that started in 1997 wiped out one third of the region’s economy. Now it’s developed countries that are dealing with the biggest debt. The administration of President Barack Obama predicts its budget deficit will swell to a record $1.6 trillion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30. Moody’s Investors Service forecasts that the U.S. will spend more on debt service as a percentage of revenue this year than any other top-rated country except the U.K. Emerging nations are moving in the opposite direction. The budget deficit for developing countries will fall to 2.8 percent of their economies this year, from 4 percent in 2009, according to an IMF report in November. Industrialized governments’ budget gap will decline to 8.1 percent from 8.9 percent, the Washington-based fund said. Developing nations reduced their foreign debt to 26 percent of GDP last year from 41 percent in 1999, while advanced nations’ debt may surge to 106.7 percent of GDP this year from 78.2 percent in 2007, according to IMF data. Credit Crisis In July 2007, the JPMorgan Emerging Market Volatility Index fell to a record low of 5.8 percent as central banks made their interest-rate and currency moves more predictable. When credit markets froze later that year, the index began rising and hit a record 35.8 percent in October 2008, one month after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed. The JPMorgan G-7 Volatility Index , including the euro, the pound and the yen, reached 26.6 percent. Emerging-market volatility is falling again as the Mexican peso and the Malaysian ringgit gained 7.4 percent versus the dollar this year, the best performers in the world after the Costa Rican colon. Mexico’s government forecasts it will keep the budget deficit at 2.8 percent of GDP this year after lowering spending and increasing taxes even as the economy shrank 6.5 percent in 2009 in its worst recession since 1932. Mexican Peso The implied volatility of the Mexican peso was 1.39 percentage points below that of the euro as of April 1, the most since October 2008, according to Bloomberg data. Exports from Malaysia, South Korea and Taiwan are growing to feed demand in China, which is leading the global economic recovery. Overseas shipments from Malaysia rose 18.4 percent in February from a year earlier. The central bank has raised its growth forecast for Southeast Asia’s third-largest economy, predicting an expansion of as much as 5.5 percent this year, the fastest since 2007. Korea exports climbed 35.1 percent in March from a year earlier, while Taiwan’s surged 50.1 percent. Overlooking Risks? Investors may be overlooking the risks of developing- nations, said Harald Hild , a money manager at Quaesta Capital Optivest AG in Switzerland, which oversees about $1 billion. The South African rand, Colombian peso and Brazilian real have increased more than 20 percent in the past year against the dollar, making their exports more expensive. These countries are also “highly dependent” on the U.S. and may falter should America’s economic recovery stumble, he said. “It’s really amazing how strong the risk appetite is for emerging-market currencies,” said Hild, who has traded currency options for 16 years. “I’m not sure how long this will hold.” Countries from Chile to China may lure $722 billion in overseas investment this year, 66 percent more than in 2009, the Washington-based Institute of International Finance said in January. Developing-nation bond funds attracted $7 billion this year, pushing assets under management to a record $74.7 billion, according to Cambridge, Massachusetts-based research company EPFR Global. Falling volatility is making emerging-market currencies more attractive, especially to investors in carry trades, said Thanos Papasavvas , head of currency management at Investec Asset Management in London. In such trades, investors borrow in countries with low interest rates to buy financial assets in those with higher yields. “You’ll see the appreciation of emerging-market currencies versus developed-market currencies as a long-term, strategic trend,” said JPMorgan’s Stewart. “Investors will allocate more to emerging markets.” To contact the reporter on this story: Ye Xie in New York at yxie6@bloomberg.net

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Germany Said to Accept EU Loan Compromise for Greece

April 11, 2010

By John Fraher and Brian Parkin April 11 (Bloomberg) — Germany is prepared to give Greece loans at below-market interest rates, dropping its opposition to subsidies as European finance ministers meet to discuss the terms of a lifeline for the debt-stricken nation, a European government official said. The loans would be priced above the rate charged by the International Monetary Fund, which would also participate in a European Union-led rescue, said the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Such an arrangement would satisfy German demands that Greece shouldn’t be given subsidized loans, the person said. Greece may receive loans for between 20 billion euros ($27 billion) and 25 billion euros at a rate of about 5 percent, Die Welt reported today, without citing anyone. German resistance to subsidized loans threatened to hold up efforts to agree on a rescue package for Greece, whose bonds plunged last week. With German Chancellor Angela Merkel balking at the use of taxpayers’ funds, her government has said that the EU should stick to a March 25 agreement that credit to Greece should be at “non-concessional” rates. “They have to be given some help from Europe or the IMF at concessional rates,” billionaire investors George Soros said in an April 9 interview on Bloomberg Radio in Cambridge, England. “It is a make or break time for the euro and it’s a question whether the political will to hold Europe together is there or not.” Terms of Agreement The European Commission said in an e-mailed statement that there will be a news conference today in Brussels at about 4 p.m. local time, following a teleconference of eurogroup finance ministers. The eurogroup also includes European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet . Ministers may today agree to the formula for calculating the loans, the European government official said. Under the terms of the March accord, Europe would provide more than half the loans and the IMF the rest, which would be triggered if Greece runs out of fund-raising options. UBS AG economists estimate Greece will need to seek emergency funding to make bond payments and cover debt refinancing of more than 20 billion euros in the next two months. The yield on Greek 10-year bonds surged 60 basis points this past week, driving it to a record 7.364 percent on April 8. Any IMF loans to Greece may cost around 3.26 percent. The premium investors demand to buy Greek 10-year bonds instead of German bunds jumped to 442 basis points April 8, before sliding to 398 basis points a day later. The euro, which has dropped about 6 percent against the dollar this year, rose 1 percent to $1.35 on April 9 as speculation about an aid package mounted. German Resistance Overcoming German resistance to subsidized loans came amid mounting speculation that that a bailout was imminent. UBS said it could come this weekend after Fitch Ratings cut Greece’s debt rating to BBB-, just one level above junk. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has argued that he needed below-market borrowing costs to cut EU’s-biggest budget deficit. Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said April 9 that Greece isn’t seeking EU aid and would meet its goal of cutting the deficit from about 13 percent last year, more than 4 times the EU limit, to 8.7 percent this year. Greece needs to raise 11.6 billion euros to cover debt that is maturing before the end of May and plans to sell bonds to U.S. investors in the coming weeks. The country’s debt agency plans to offer 1.2 billion euros of six-month and one-year notes tomorrow. Confidence ‘Undermined’ Greece’s long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings were on April 9 cut two levels to BBB-, the same level as Bulgaria and Panama, from BBB+ by Fitch Ratings. The outlook is negative, Fitch said, citing delays in agreeing to an aid package. “The lack of clarity regarding the mechanism for timely external financial support may have hindered Greece’s access to market finance at affordable cost and hence further undermined confidence in the capacity of the government to meet its fiscal targets,” Fitch said in an e-mailed statement. The Athens benchmark stock index rose for the first day in four on April 9 amid speculation that an aid package would soon be agreed. It fell 5 percent this week. EU leaders, including French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Herman Van Rompuy , president of the 27-nation bloc, expressed their readiness to provide aid two days ago. “A support plan has been agreed and we are ready to activate at any moment to come to the aid of Greece,” Sarkozy said. To contact the reporters on this story: John Fraher in London at jfraher@bloomberg.net ; Brian Parkin in Berlin at bparkin@bloomberg.net

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Soros Says Pound Devaluation Is Option for Next U.K. Government to Decide

April 9, 2010

By Jennifer Ryan April 10 (Bloomberg) — Billionaire investor George Soros said the next U.K. government after the May 6 election should decide whether to allow a further devaluation of the pound to rebalance the economy and assist the recovery. Britain “has more room to use exchange rate adjustments as a way of adjusting the economy” than do nations that use the euro, he said in an interview yesterday in Cambridge, England. “It’s a question for the next government to decide. It has a number of options, of which a currency depreciation is one.” The pound has dropped about 25 percent on a trade-weighted basis since the start of 2007, making exporters’ goods less expensive overseas. Bank of England policy makers are counting on sterling’s weakness to aid the recovery and rebalance the economy away from domestic spending at a time when the nation faces a record budget deficit . “It’s a question now of, if you now cut the budget deficit and borrow less, you could probably keep the currency, raise the interest rate, you could keep the currency from going down,” he said. “Britain, by having kept out of the euro, has that option of allowing the exchange rate to adjust.” Soros made $1 billion in 1992 betting against the pound. In January 2009, a month when the pound reached as low as $1.3506, he said that a bet on its decline “was one of the positions we carried,” though the “risk-reward was no longer clear” after it dropped below the $1.40 level. Sterling was at $1.5367 at the close in London yesterday. ‘Difficult Situation’ Soros said that history shows Britain still has room to borrow more to bolster its public finances. Its debt levels have been higher, and Japan’s 10-year borrowing costs are about 1.5 percent even after its debt load swelled, he said. “Probably Britain is not at the limit of its borrowing capacity,” he said. Still, “Britain is in a very difficult situation.” At about 12 percent of gross domestic product , the U.K. deficit rivals that of Greece. Net debt climbed to 60.3 percent of GDP in February. “It has had a really serious jump in its indebtedness because its had to take over the debt of the banks that are in trouble and also the financial industry’s a very large part of the economy,” Soros said. Soros Fund Management LLC manages about $25 billion. The firm increased its investment in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest exchange-traded fund for the metal, by 152 percent in the fourth quarter. Soros told Reuters in an interview in January that he didn’t trade himself. Soros was attending a conference organized by the Institute for New Economic Thinking in Cambridge. To contact the reporter on this story: Jennifer Ryan in London at jryan13@bloomberg.net .

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EU Readies Greece Aid as Fitch Cuts Country’s Debt Rating on Fiscal Crisis

April 9, 2010

By Jana Randow April 9 (Bloomberg) — European Union officials said they are ready to rescue Greece if needed as Fitch Ratings cut the country’s credit rating to the lowest investment grade and economists at UBS AG said that a bailout may be imminent. Germany restated its opposition to below-market rate loans to Greece as officials in Brussels hammered out details to the framework calling for joint EU-International Monetary Fund aid. European Central Bank policy makers planned a teleconference tonight, two people familiar with the matter said. “They have to be given some help from Europe or the IMF at concessional rates,” billionaire investors George Soros said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio today in Cambridge, England. “It is a make or break time for the euro and it’s a question whether the political will to hold Europe together is there or not.” The premium investors demand to buy Greek 10-year bonds instead of German bunds jumped to 442 basis points yesterday, the highest since the introduction of the euro. Prime Minister George Papandreou has said borrowing at those levels is unsustainable. Greece will need to seek emergency funding now to make debt repayments of more than 20 billion euros ($27 billion) in the next two months, UBS economists said in a note. “The recent market action means that an external intervention may be unavoidable and could happen very soon as the situation is untenable,” UBS economists including Stephane Deo wrote. “An intervention over the weekend is a distinct possibility.” Borrowing Needs Greece still needs to raise 11.6 billion euros to cover debt that is maturing before the end of May and plans to sell bonds to U.S. investors in the coming weeks. The country’s debt agency announced today it would offer 1.2 billion euros of six- month and one-year notes on April 12. Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said today he’s still not planning to seek emergency EU financing. Greece’s long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings were cut two levels to BBB- from BBB+ by Fitch Ratings. The outlook is negative, Fitch said. The spread on Greek 10-year debt narrowed to 394 basis points. That means that Greece pays twice what Germany does to sell 10-year bonds, The higher financing costs will offset some of the spending cuts imposed to bring down a deficit of 12.7 percent of gross domestic product, the largest in the EU. ‘Getting Close’ “We are likely getting close to the point” where Greece asks the EU and the International Monetary Fund for aid, said David Mackie , chief European economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in London. “Presumably, all the decisions will need to be taken quickly, between the close of business on a Friday and the opening of business on a Monday.” The Athens benchmark stock index rose for the first day in four amid speculation that officials meeting in Brussels agreed on technical aspects of an package. It fell 5 percent this week. The euro extended yesterday’s gains, adding 0.8 percent today to at $1.3473 at 6:15 p.m. in Frankfurt. Any aid request would risk re-opening EU political divisions, particularly if it were to come before a May 9 regional election in Germany, where opinion polls show public opposition to supporting Greece. Euro-region leaders last month endorsed a compromise proposal reflecting French-led demands for a lead role for the euro area and German insistence that the IMF be involved. ‘Worrisome’ “The situation in Greece looks increasingly worrisome,” James Nixon , co-chief European economist at Societe Generale in London, wrote in a note late yesterday. “If spreads don’t begin to narrow in the next couple of days we are undoubtedly moving into the endgame.” UBS said that the remaining differences about the terms of the aid mechanism means that the IMF might would have to play a key role in a bailout. “A support plan has been agreed and we are ready to activate at any moment to come to the aid of Greece,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy told reporters in Paris. The EU is “ready to intervene,” Herman Van Rompuy , the president of the 27-member bloc, was cited as saying by Le Monde today. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has insisted that no concession be made to Greece and that loans be extended at close to its cost of borrowing in the market. ECB President Jean- Claude Trichet said yesterday that EU countries would extend loans to Greece at their own cost of borrowing, which would leave Greece paying less than if it went directly to the market. ‘Limbo’ “While markets’ anxiety over developments in Greece subsided somewhat, the limbo over the provision of financial support to Greece hasn’t been resolved,” said Ken Wattret , chief euro-area economist at BNP Paribas in London. “If near- term support is not going to be forthcoming from within the euro zone, then Greece may have no option but to look outside for assistance.” The Greek government is counting on wage cuts and tax increases to shave the deficit to 8.7 percent of gross domestic product this year from 12.9 percent in 2009. The country’s first quarter budget deficit fell 39.2 percent to 4.3 billion euros, the finance ministry said today in an e-mailed statement. The UBS economists wrote that the lack of detail and the speed at which the situation is deteriorating mean IMF participation is “unavoidable.” The Washington-based lender would likely impose further austerity on the Greek government, deepening a recession and leading to an economic contraction of as much as 5 percent this year and between 10 percent and 15 percent over the next two years, the report said. To contact the reporters responsible for this story: Jana Randow in Frankfurt at jrandow@bloomberg.net

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Stocks, Euro, Greek Bonds Advance on Speculation of International Bailout

April 9, 2010

By Whitney Kisling and David Merritt April 9 (Bloomberg) — Stocks rose and Greek bonds rallied for the first time in two weeks on speculation Europe’s most indebted nation will get an international bailout to avert a default. The euro jumped 0.8 percent against the dollar. Stocks and the euro briefly trimmed their advance as Fitch Ratings cut Greece’s debt ratings to the lowest investment grade, before resuming gains that sent the MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations’ stocks to near its highest in 18 months and the euro to its strongest versus the dollar in almost a week. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.4 percent at 11:34 a.m. in New York. The premium investors demand to hold Greek ten-year notes instead of benchmark German debt narrowed 29 basis points as European officials said they’re ready to come to Greece’s rescue if needed. “They have to be given some help from Europe or the IMF at concessional rates,” billionaire investor George Soros said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio in Cambridge, England. “It is a make or break time for the euro and it’s a question whether the political will to hold Europe together is there or not.” European Union officials are “ready to act” on financial assistance for Greece, European Commission spokeswoman Amelia Torres said in Brussels. U.S. stocks extended gains earlier as government data showed wholesale inventories rose more than forecast in February, a sign companies are increasing orders as sales climbed to the highest level in more than a year. Greek Yields Retreat Yields on Greek two-year notes fell 44 basis points to 6.93 percent after rising more than 200 basis points in the past three weeks. National Bank of Greece SA, the nation’s biggest lender, rallied 8.1 percent, snapping a three-day, 17 percent plunge. Energy and consumer shares led the gains in U.S. stocks, with Exxon Mobil Corp. rising 1.2 percent and Walt Disney Co. advancing 2.3 percent. Treasuries fell, paring weekly gains, as speculation Greece will avoid default reduced demand for the relative safety of U.S. government debt. The 10-year note’s yield rose 2 basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 3.91 percent. The Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against six major trading partners, slid 0.7 percent to 80.981. The New Zealand dollar, Danish krone and euro led gains against the dollar, rising at least 0.9 percent. Only the Canadian dollar fell against the U.S. currency among the 16 most active counterparts tracked by Bloomberg. Europe Rallies The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 1.1 percent as banks and commodity producers led gains by all 19 industry groups. The benchmark gauge of equities in 18 western European nations headed for its sixth straight weekly gain, the longest winning streak in a year. Givaudan SA, the world’s biggest maker of flavors and fragrances, surged 5.1 percent in Zurich after saying sales advanced. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4 percent. Macarthur Coal Ltd. jumped 8.3 percent in Sydney after rejecting a A$3.64 billion ($3.4 billion) bid from New Hope Corp., which is vying with Peabody Energy Corp. and Noble Group Ltd. for control of the world’s biggest producer of pulverized coal. Xstrata Plc, the world’s fourth-largest copper producer, rose 2.5 percent in London after saying it approached Macarthur shareholders Posco and ArcelorMittal about a potential rival bid. Eastern Europe led a rebound in emerging-market stocks, with Hungary’s Budapest Stock Exchange Index gaining 1.5 percent and the Czech PX Index climbing 1.2 percent. The Micex Index in Russia advanced 1.4 percent while the ruble strengthened 0.9 percent against the dollar. Turkey’s lira added 0.6 percent. Copper for delivery in three months rose 0.6 percent to $7,940 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Aluminum advanced to its highest level since October 2008. Gold for immediate delivery added 1 percent to $1,161.70 an ounce, for a fifth consecutive gain. Crude oil erased gains, slipping 0.5 percent to $84.97 a barrel in New York. To contact the reporters on this story: Whitney Kisling in New York at wkisling@bloomberg.net ; David Merritt in London on dmerritt1@bloomberg.net .

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Video: George Soros Discusses Prospects for Greek Rescue: Video

April 9, 2010

April 9 (Bloomberg) — Billionaire investor George Soros talks with Bloomberg’s Francine Lacqua about the prospects of Greece calling for emergency loans to fund its budget deficit. Soros, speaking in Cambridge, England, says any loans to Greece should be provided at a concessionary rate, rather than a market rate. (This is an excerpt of the full interview. Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Galbraith Says He Fears `Uncontrolled Crisis in Europe’

April 9, 2010

April 9 (Bloomberg) — James Galbraith, a professor at the University of Texas, talks with Bloomberg’s Francine Lacqua about his “biggest fear” for the European economy. Galbraith, speaking in Cambridge, England, also discusses U.S. household debt and the outlook for an economic recovery.

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