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Levying a tiny tax on financial transactions could help build a healthier and more stable future. Political discontent simmered for decades in Egypt, but soaring food prices helped push public frustration past the boiling point. As the political drama there continues to unfold, it’s critical to address the complex financial and environmental dynamics that have driven global food prices to record levels . Rising oil prices and the shift from food crops to biofuels are part of the problem. But two other factors deserve increased attention — climate change and financial speculation. Extreme weather events — like the heat wave that sparked fires across Russia’s breadbasket last summer — are tightening supplies. The impacts of severe weather in one area on distant nations (witness the food riots in Mozambique last summer as Russia cooked) emphasize the limits of adaptation. And changing weather patterns, with more droughts, floods, severe hurricanes, and winter weather anomalies, are predicted to increase in a warming world. Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute, warns that for each degree of temperature increase, crop yields are anticipated to drop by 10 percent . He notes that, with climate change and altered weather patterns, come growing water scarcity, desertification of once-arable land, and the inundation of globally important farmland — such as the Mekong and Red River deltas, which produce most of Vietnam’s rice. Experts also blame an explosion of speculation in food commodity markets for food price volatility. The original purpose of these markets was to help farmers and food processors lock in predictable prices so they could make smart business decisions. The financial speculators that now dominate the markets don’t intend to buy or sell grain or meat. Their interest lies in capitalizing on food shortages and price volatility. Thanks in part to deregulation , the speed of this global gambling can lead to boom and bust cycles that are detached from the actual value of food. The G20 finance ministers, who will meet this week in Paris, have an opportunity to take bold steps toward tackling both of these underlying causes of the food price crisis. French president Nicolas Sarkozy, currently the G20 chair, is pushing for an international agreement to adopt taxes on financial speculation that could generate massive revenues for urgent needs, including climate programs in developing countries. Here’s how this would work. A tiny levy would be charged on each financial trade, including every sale of stocks, bonds, foreign currency, credit default swaps, commodity futures, or other derivatives. Because trillions of dollars worth of transactions occur every day, even a small tax of 0.05 percent could raise more than $600 billion annually . Directing a portion of this revenue to programs to combat climate change and support global health programs would dwarf current public contributions. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, financier and philanthropist George Soros backed the idea of using some of the revenues from such a financial transactions tax (which supporters often refer to as an FTT) to fight climate change. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is another strong proponent and is exploring the possibility of moving ahead with a “coalition of the willing” rather than waiting for all G20 countries to get on board. Other financiers and governments would do well to follow the path of enlightened self-interest. The UK showed how shifting funds from finance to industry could be good for business when it took actions in the early 1990s to reduce high interest rates that were stagnating money in bank savings. Soon after, its economy took off. In a recent study, the International Monetary Fund found that taxes on financial speculation are not only technically feasible but that most G20 countries (and many others) have already implemented some form of an FTT. For example, the London Stock Exchange has long levied a 0.5 percent stamp tax on all stock trades. Though the Obama administration hasn’t yet endorsed the idea of taxing financial speculation, there is support in the U.S. Congress. In the last session, members introduced several bills to create various types of financial transactions taxes. Rep. Pete Stark (D-CA) is poised to re-introduce legislation that would put a levy on foreign currency transactions to generate revenue for deficit reduction and for global public goods, like the clean energy transformation. As the G20 meets, advocates in 20 nations around the world, including the United States, will carry out a variety of actions to send a message to G20 leaders to support levying a FTT. No one regulatory mechanism will solve all of the problems of food insecurity, climate change, and financial instability. But, with national budgets strapped and the financial sector benefitting handsomely from the global economy, it becomes even more important for speculators to do their fair share. A tax on financial speculation could be the first of many innovative mechanisms to link the economy with the environment and help build a healthier, more stable, and more secure future.

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Paul R. Epstein, M.D., M.P.H.: Taxing Financial Speculation, Raising Funds for Critical Needs

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Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) — Niall Ferguson, a history professor at Harvard University, discusses the European sovereign debt crisis and the outlook for the euro. German Chancellor Angela Merkel met with Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero in Madrid today. Both will attend a leaders’ summit in Brussels tomorrow. Ferguson speaks with David Tweed in Madrid on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Ferguson Says Euro Outlook Improved After Merkel Meeting

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Specter Of Currency War Rears Its Head At Davos

January 29, 2011

DAVOS, Switzerland — A fight is looming between rich and poor countries over the value of the dollar and other key currencies, as governments use monetary tricks to boost their national recovery at the expense of other nations, political and business leaders warned Saturday. Washington has been leaning hard on Beijing to allow the Chinese renminbi to rise, saying it is being kept artificially cheap to maintain China’s cheap labor advantage. At the same time the United States, Britain and others have encouraged their central banks to pump money into the system as a means of stimulating the economy. “We are going to see the recovery of nationalism and protectionism, I think we’re going to face some type of currency war,” said Jose Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo, president and CEO of Brazilian oil giant Petrobras. “The U.S. is going to try to use weak dollar policy to help recovery in the U.S., and Brazil, India are not going to accept that and will fight back, and then we’re going to see some struggle and conflicts,” he said. His words echoed concerns expressed by many participants of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this week, where ways to maintain the fragile global recovery – and risks to it – are being hotly debated. Ministers for Germany and France said the euro, and the 17 countries that use it, should be not be short changed by financial markets and that any future shocks to the common currency were unlikely. “I think the euro will be stable,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said. Christine Lagarde, France’s economy minister said “I think the euro zone has turned a corner. Let’s not short Europe and let’s not short the euro zone.” Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd, responding to a Chinese participant’s defense of China’s currency policies, said, “A few of the rest of us would say a better approach is the appreciation of the renminbi.” Beijing has been wary of letting go control of its currency even as food prices rises are driving up inflation – a situation that has been partly blamed for spurring anti-government protests in the Middle East this week. Rudd said the world has huge concerns about how China will deal with its inflation, and urged Beijing to “get the exchange rate right.” Concerns about where the renminbi, dollar and in particular the euro are heading were aired as more than two dozen senior officials from key economies met in Davos to discuss sending a political signal that a new global trade deal can be completed this year. Thailand’s prime minister said Saturday that failure to conclude the so-called Doha round of trade talks, which have been nearly 10 years in the making, indicated a leadership vacuum on the global stage. “Despite what global leaders say, they are still very much dictated by domestic politics,” Abhisit Vejjajiva told a panel. Renewed talk of a deal – which some say could add billions to the world economy – has won backing from leaders and executives at the World Economic Forum this week. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister David Cameron cited it as a key test for the international community’s ability to cooperate in reviving the world economy. “We are literally meters away from the finishing line,” Merkel said Friday. Experts remain skeptical that a deal can be reached this year, mainly because China and the United States remain at loggerheads on key issues. Pushing the talks into 2012 – a U.S. presidential election year – would make a conclusion even less likely because the sensitive issue of trade would be a hard sell for politicians of any stripe. But Pascal Lamy, head of the World Trade Organization, said the talks at Davos were “very constructive. The ministers gave a strong signal.” Johann N. Schneider-Ammann, Switzerland’s economy minister, said that there was “a sense that we are in the end game and that if Doha is done, it needs to be done this year.” China’s growth and worries about Europe’s debts have been another focus of attention among the 2,500 business and political leaders discussing the state of the world economy this week. ___ Online: http://www.weforum.org ___ Angela Charlton and Tomislav Skaro contributed to this report.

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Marian Salzman: Booting Up

December 3, 2010

This is the fifth in a series of 12 posts expounding on the 2011 forecasts in the annual trends report from Salzman, president of Euro RSCG Worldwide PR and an internationally respected trendspotter. Watch out in 2011 for the return of skin-thickening boot camps to toughen up kids and employees for the rigors of the 21st century. This new brand of take-it-square training is going to catch on like tinder in a world that just might be gentling its young people out of competitiveness. We might have educated our kids, stimulated them, taught them to care and share, and protected them from bad things, but we now have a generation, called millennials (at Euro RSCG Worldwide PR, the agency I run, we consider them to be currently 18 to 25 years old), that is smart, plugged-in and tech-savvy–but oversensitive. Former Wall Street Journal columnist Ron Alsop calls them trophy kids , and many corporate recruiters consider them case studies in entitlement . In the workplace, this can make for a cross-generational melee: conflicts between millennials who believe the office should be egalitarian, casual and quick to reward, and boomer-managers whose buttons get pushed by their young employees’ expectations of a gimme-ocracy. Another thing unwitting work cultures have had to face is not just the millennial employee but also his or her helicopter parents . In 2007, I told “60 Minutes” that millennials could be incorrigible. “You can’t really ask them to live and breathe the company,” I told Morley Safer, “because they’re living and breathing themselves–and that keeps them very busy.” Today, my POV is that they reflect the best and worst of all generations. Boot camps could harness their genuine passion for good and for getting businesses to clean up their act to help make them all-around strong. While there’s plenty of advice out there for corporate cultures wishing to recruit and retain this group with their needs in mind, I see a flip side: emotional resilience-conditioning workouts that will begin to prevail, tasked with toughening up young people to face that rough road called reality. Mindful of what New York Times columnist Tom Friedman has said he has wanted to tell his daughters (in a twist on how his parents used to get him to eat his dinner), “Finish your homework–people in China and India are starving for your job,” there isn’t just a lot of competition for jobs in the U.S. economy, but there’s also an achievement gap that has widened, and stuck, among Caucasian, Hispanic and African-American groups, who fall far behind Asian Americans’ generally very good school results. In California’s 2007 achievement gap report , Asian students ranked above Caucasian students in English-language arts and math proficiency by 4.3 and 13.9 percent percentage points, respectively, and performed at more than double the proficiency of Hispanics and African Americans. Two years later, these inequalities hadn’t changed . In New York City, Mayor Michael Bloomberg touted a narrowed gap between these groups in 2010, but Asian students led the pack. Michael J. Petrilli, from the education think tank Thomas B. Fordham Institute, said , “On achievement, the story in New York City is of some modest progress, but not the miracle that the mayor and the chancellor would like to claim.” Some of the shape-up responsibility for this problem, which schools already shoulder, points to parenting. An ethic of old-fashioned, hard-assed knuckling down, less evident in today’s society, often makes a more adept and resilient student than a culture of parental indulgence. If these millennials aren’t tough enough to finish, much less excel in, school–and thus help sustain American competitiveness–the ramifications are extreme. Already in California, anxiety over marshaling a globally competitive science and engineering workforce for 2020 is over the top , and there are predictions of a giant shortfall of college degree-holding workers in general by 2025 if nothing changes. So, like it or not, overprotection is bad preparation for an übercompetitive world. We know that American (or Australian or European) educators and parents aren’t about to subject kids to conditions that prevail in emerging economies, let alone emulate the Spartans who left infants out on hillsides to weed out the weak. The NYU Child Study Center says , “The best-adjusted children, particularly in terms of social competence, had parents with an authoritative, moderate parenting style.” If you’ve got a kid at home, consider trying out a bit of “authoritative.” (Or consult Ph.D.s Sam Goldstein and Robert Brooks in Raising a Self-Disciplined Child: Help Your Child to Become More Responsible, Confident and Resilient –where they describe disciplinary and parenting styles that foster self-discipline and resilience .) Still, I see toughening boot camps as a cresting wave next year, with new curricula that are to thick skin what weight training is to fit muscle. It will be fascinating to watch this evolve–and to see what regulatory mechanisms might be established for entrepreneurs who can innovate tougher-character training without straying into abuse. There are pots of gold waiting for such organizations. Emerging clues for just who will lead in this realm hark back to some of what’s been shown to work with millennials: the success-breeds-success style. Stan Smith, a national director for human resources at accounting giant Deloitte, considers millennials to be team-oriented, not challenge-averse, and picky about who should lead them. They’re not anti-establishmentarian. And Pew Research has found something that might surprise about this tattooed and body-pierced cohort: Millennials are as likely as older Americans to think that it’s because of American business success that our country is strong. But with their generation more socially group-needy, one rule for the excelling boot camp strategy might be reciprocity. Says one boot-camp mentor blogger: “The exercise of trying to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of (bootcampers) and their performance also helps me examine my own strengths and weaknesses and how my actions may be perceived by others…. When I [maintain connections and communicate] right I cultivate reciprocal good will from my bootcampers, and having the right working relationships with future experts across the code base is incredibly useful in a company that moves as fast as ours and leaves very little documentation in its wake.” What cannot be doubted is that millennials are rising faster than sea levels, with just as unforeseeable consequences. If they just can’t or won’t see the experience of the older generation as special or valuable, it’s going to be through booting up that the values of hard work–including respecting, learning from experience and admitting when you’re wrong–are going to grow tender plants into tough stuff. Previously: “Mad as Hell–and Only Getting Madder” “Talk to the Hands” “Net Gain” “Public Mycasting System” On Monday: “Yes, We Can…Reinvent Ourselves”

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How The Auto Industry Bailout Pulled One Indiana Town Back From Brink

November 23, 2010

KOKOMO, Ind. — Jerry Price remembers the eerie silence less than two years ago when he walked through one of the transmission plants that long provided the economic lifeblood of this town steeped in auto industry history. With the machines still and the workers gone, casualties of Chrysler’s bankruptcy declaration a few days earlier, the only signs of life were a few lights that had been left on. “None of us, including myself, ever thought that this place would be running again,” said Price, vice president of United Auto Workers Local 685. Not only has the plant reopened for business, but President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden are visiting Tuesday to herald Kokomo as one of the major success stories of the auto bailout. Residents of this city, where unemployment once soared above 20 percent after the shutdown, are doing their part to proclaim the virtues of legislation that generated plenty of controversy at the time. “If the bailout hadn’t come, then we’d be a ghost town,” said Jeff Newton, a pastor who runs Kokomo Urban Outreach, which runs a network of food pantries. Kokomo’s fortunes have been entwined with the auto industry since 1894, when Elwood Haynes invented one of the first automobiles in the United States there. Since the 1930s, when then-Delco (later Delphi) located there, followed by General Motors and Chrysler, the auto industry has been the city’s bread and butter. Today, Kokomo is likely more dependent on the industry than any other city in the country – including those in Michigan, said Indiana University-Kokomo Chancellor Michael Harris, an economist who has studied the auto industry for 20 years. Nearly 25 percent of the city’s work force is employed by the industry, he said. Most work at the four Chrysler plants that employ about 4,500 today, at GM, which employs about 1,000, or at Delphi, which has about 1,400 workers. “If the auto industry would have totally walked away from Kokomo, we would probably have unemployment that would have hit 35 percent,” said Harris. As it was, the city’s unemployment rate hit 20.4 percent in June 2009, the highest level in the past decade. “It’s been very scary at times,” said Dave White, 58, who has worked at Chrysler for 24 years. His wife also works for the automaker. Kokomo leaders and business owners say an infusion of cash pulled the city back from the brink. Besides benefitting from Chrysler’s $7.1 billion share of the auto industry bailout, the plant received nearly $4 million in federal stimulus money and an $89 million grant to help Delphi Automotive Systems develop electronic components for vehicles. In September, the jobless rate dropped to 12.7 percent – the lowest rate in nearly two years. Stimulus money paid for a new park pavilion and helped remodel a fire station. Democratic Mayor Greg Goodnight said the city used other money to remove 11 stoplights and convert several streets into one-way streets to help make downtown more friendly for pedestrians. Volunteers also planted flowers throughout downtown to spruce up the area. While those jobs were temporary, observers say the bigger – and longer lasting – boost has come from Chrysler and Delphi, which have invested heavily in Kokomo since receiving federal help. Delphi announced a $28 million investment and Chrysler has promised more than $300 million to retool one of its transmission plants. “There’s no doubt that Chrysler has decided to make Kokomo the center of their manufacturing for the future,” Harris said. Even so, Kokomo’s recovery is still in its infancy. Newton, the pastor whose Kokomo Urban Outreach runs six neighborhood food pantries and meal programs, said the food pantries still serve about 800 people each month – the same as they did during the height of the depths of the recession. “We had people crying in the hallways” when things were at their worst, Newton said. “They’d never had to go to a food pantry before, and they felt ashamed.” Now, instead of autoworkers scrimping on food to pay mortgages and car loans, they’re seeing more minimum-wage workers to whom the recovery hasn’t yet trickled down, he said. Penny Irwin, the broker-owner of Re/Max Realty One in Kokomo, said the average price of a home in Kokomo dropped about $30,000 over the last three years. But home prices are slowly improving. According to Indiana Association of Realtors statistics, the median cost of a home in Howard County is $75,250, up from $69,900 a year ago. Downtown has also seen a turnaround, with 13 new businesses starting up or moving in since January, said John Wiles, a former newspaper editor who now heads the Kokomo Downtown Association. The city used an economic development income tax for some projects, made matching loans to downtown businesses to improve building facades and set up a riverfront development district along Wildcat Creek to encourage new restaurants by making it easier to obtain liquor licenses. “We’ve done a lot of things for ourselves,” Goodnight said. The riverfront initiative – along with Small Business Administration financing – made it possible for father and son Steve and Blake Kinder to start Cook McDoogal’s Irish Pub, a new downtown bar with lavish woodwork rescued from old churches and remodeled homes that’s set to open Tuesday. A couple of years ago, Blake Kinder said, the only people downtown were coming for court appearances. Now, it’s common to see young mothers walking their babies in strollers. “The mood has definitely risen,” he said. “People are starting to feel more comfortable about Kokomo’s future, whether they like to admit it or not.” ___ Associated Press writer Tom Coyne in South Bend also contributed to this story.

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William K. Black: The Celtic Chimera

November 17, 2010

I’m writing from the scene of the first Kilkenomics Festival, which brings together finance experts and professional comics to try to answer the public’s questions about why the world is suffering recurrent, intensifying financial crises, why Ireland has gone to the heights and crashed spectacularly, and what options does it have that other nations in crisis have used successfully. David McWilliams, an Irish economist, and Richard Cook the man that started the Kilkenny comedy festival (Cat Laughs) decided to create an economics festival with sessions run by professional comedians questioning the economists. This is an utterly bizarre idea, so I accepted immediately. It turns out that professional Irish comics are every bit as quick and well read as you would have guessed by extrapolating from what you see on Jon Stewart’s Daily Show. (Irish angst and Jewish angst bear a strong resemblance.) There’s a long European tradition of the “fool” being able to mock the pretentious and powerful and bring out the truth. Talking to the comics and answering their questions forces us to speak clearly and bluntly – or be skewered. The public love it (both parts – getting clear answers to their questions or watching the comics skewer us) and the roughly 20 events have been sold out. Ireland was known as the “Celtic Tiger.” It shot to economic fame. From the poor man of Northern Europe, it was transformed into a nation with a reported per capita GDP equivalent to that of the United States. The old, true, and painful joke: “What’s Ireland leading export? (Answer: “the Irish”) was reversed as people began to move to Ireland. Unfortunately, the Celtic Tiger was ultimately revealed to be a Celtic Chimera. Irish bank supervision was so weak and Ireland’s banks so wild and crazy that the New York Times called Ireland the new “Wild West.” Ireland’s largest banks hyper-inflated twin bubbles in commercial and residential real estate. They grew massively. Fortunately, Lehman failed and the Irish banks’ ability to grow collapsed – which meant that the bubbles imploded in late 2008. Had it not done so, the Irish banks would have continued their staggering growth and caused almost incomprehensible losses (relative to the size of the Irish economy) when the (vastly larger) bubbles finally collapsed. Anglo Irish Bank was merely the worst an awful collection of large Irish bank. The Irish entity disposing of the Irish banks’ bad assets is now estimating 70% losses on Anglo’s (copious) bad assets. That percentage loss estimate is, bizarrely, mandated to be as of a year ago even though property values have fallen significantly since that date and are expected to continue to decline next year. Non-linear increases in losses are common when a bubble hyper-inflates. Therefore, any estimate of the increased losses that would have resulted had the collapse of the Irish bubbles come two years later should assume percentage losses on the new assets of well above 75%. The size of Irish bank losses that the Irish government claims its taxpayers should bear is contested, but has a lower bound of roughly 60 billion Euros. Had Dick Fuld’s avaricious heart not led to Lehman’s collapse, or had Treasury bailed out Lehman and prevented (delayed) its failure, Ireland (and Iceland) would have collapsed as nations. If their banks had continued their growth for even two more years, Ireland and Iceland’s per capita debts would have been so staggering (in the range of $50,000) that they would have sparked massive emigration, which would have pushed the per capita debt even higher. Both nations would now be occupied almost entirely by pensioners and non-nationals. The economists and finance practitioners that presented at the Kilkenomics Festival came from diverse streams of economic and political views. They, nevertheless, agreed on three points about the Irish crisis: (1) it was insane for the Irish government to provide and extend unlimited financial guarantees of virtually all debts of the failed Irish banks, (2) the Irish government had transformed a private banking crisis into a sovereign debt and budgetary crisis that imperiled Ireland’s recovery from the economic crisis and gravely stressed the EU and the Euro, and (3) that either the EU or IMF would bail out Ireland or Ireland would default. I’m going to write a series of columns about what I’ve learned by examining the Irish and Icelandic crises. I urge readers to take these two small islands’ experience seriously for at least five reasons. First, one of the key analytical issues has long been which flashpoint would spark the next stage in the ongoing, global financial crises. The leading candidates have been the EU periphery and the collapse of the still-growing Chinese bubbles. (Of course, they may occur simultaneously or the first crisis may quickly trigger the second.) Europe now looks like it will win the “next crisis” race. (I believe that the European Union (EU) is rich enough to paper over the crisis for several years, but European politics could scuttle that effort. Second, the EU is set up in a fashion that creates strong, perverse incentives for future financial crises. Third, the EU is set up in a fashion that is periodically strongly criminogenic in particular nations. These criminogenic environments will feed future epidemics of “accounting control fraud” — the leading cause of severe financial crises. Massive amounts of European money will move to fund these frauds, which will cause financial bubbles to hyper-inflate and produce catastrophic banking losses and severe recessions. Fourth, the EU is set up in a manner that makes it extremely difficult (and expensive) to attempt to respond to the severe recessions and debt crises that these perverse incentives generate. The EU “channels” IMF’s “let’s turn a financial crisis into a crisis of the real economy” strategy. Fifth, the Irish government’s response to their epidemic of fraudulent lending has been so exquisitely awful that it (A) demonstrates the catastrophic costs of deregulation, desupervision, and deifying finance, and (B) allows one to illustrate why it is essential to combine good analytics, skepticism, courage, and integrity in responding to such epidemics. One of the independent reports that the Irish government commissioned about the banking crisis was co-authored by Professor Karl Whelan of University College Dublin. That report has received moderate attention and I will discuss it in more detail in future posts. Professor Whelan, however, has provided a far more candid briefing paper for the European Parliament: “The Future for Eurozone Financial Stability Policy” (September 2010). His briefing paper makes clear why there will be an EU bailout of the Irish banks. One of his key conclusions is that sovereign defaults by EU nations are likely and that the EU must prepare now to deal with them. That fundamental candor is matched by his explanation for why the EU created a bailout fund earlier in 2010. “While the public discussion of this decision has largely focused on the idea that the agreement was aimed at preserving the Euro as the common currency, the truth was more prosaic: The European banking system was already in a fragile state and would not have coped with a series of sovereign defaults. The need to maintain financial stability, specifically banking sector stability, was what prompted the unprecedented announcement of the bailout funds.” “The health of the European banking system remains in question. The most likely trigger for sovereign defaults in the next few years is a prolonged period of slow growth or perhaps a double-dip recession.” Whelan is trying to make clear the great underreported fact of the Irish banking crisis — the broader EU banking crisis. (And, while Whelan does not emphasize this point, his discussion inherently means that there was a horrific failure of EU banking regulation.) He explains that the European “stress tests” were farcical because they assumed no sovereign defaults could occur and ignored all market value losses on the banks’ “held for investment” exposures to sovereign risk. He cites the OECD study that discussed these massive loss exposures. The OECD emphasized that the losses were lumpy. “Large cross-border exposures (defined as an exposure above 5% of Tier 1 capital) to Greece are present for Germany, France, Belgium (all with systemically important banks), Cyprus and Portugal. Large exposures to Portugal are present in Germany and Belgium; to Spain in Germany and Belgium; to Italy in Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Austria and Portugal; and to Ireland in Germany and Cyprus.” The alert reader will have noted the nation whose banks have large, unrecognized losses on debt among each of the PIIGS — Germany. German banks acted like drunken “Girls Gone Wild” as soon as they were approached by a foreign borrower. Germany’s Bank Gone Wild were hooked on yield — for a trivial increase in yield, without any meaningful due diligence, they made massive unsecured loans to many of the most fraudulent borrowers throughout Europe. Borrowers engaged in control fraud have two great attractions for bankers gone wild — they typically report extreme profitability (which makes them appear to be creditworthy to the credulous) and they are willing to promise to pay higher interest rates). Their promises, of course, have all the reliability of the producers’ of “Girls Gone Wild” promises that the girls will be able to launch a film career if they shed their clothes. Where were the German banking regulators? They seem to have believed that “What happens in Vegas (Dublin) stays in Vegas (Dublin).” Instead, their German banks came back from their riotous holidays in the PIIGS with BTDs (bank transmitted diseases). The German banks’ regulators continue to let them hide the embarrassing losses they picked up on holiday, but that cover up will collapse if any of the PIIGS default. The PIIGS will default if the EU does not bail them out, so there will be a bail out even though the German taxpayers hate to fund bailouts. All of this should put a very different interpretation on Chancellor Merkel’s insistence on unsecured creditors suffering losses when they lend to banks that fail. She has argued that it is essential that they suffer losses so that they will have the proper incentives to provide effective “private market discipline” and that it is fair that they suffer losses given the premium yields they received and their lack of due diligence. German banks would be the primary losers under her proposal, so her position is remarkable. She is apparently disgusted with the German “banks gone wild” that were the largest funders of the accounting control frauds that drove several of the epicenters of the European financial crises and helped push Europe into the Great Recession. This post originally appeared at Benzinga .

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Video: Labour’s Johnson Says U.K. Cuts ‘A Reckless Gamble’

October 21, 2010

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) — U.K. Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer Alan Johnson talks about the outlook for the U.K. economy following the announcement of the government’s public spending cuts. He speaks with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television’s “On The Move.”

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Ellen Brown: Escaping the Sovereign Debt Trap: The Remarkable Model of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia

August 4, 2010

The current credit crisis is basically a capital crisis : at a time when banks are already short of the capital needed to back their loans, capital requirements are being raised. Nearly a century ago, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia demonstrated that banks do not actually need capital to make loans — so long as their credit is backed by the government. Denison Miller, the Bank’s first Governor, was fond of saying that the Bank did not need capital because “it is backed by the entire wealth and credit of the whole of Australia.” With nothing but this national credit power, the Commonwealth Bank funded both massive infrastructure projects and the country’s participation in World War I. President John Adams is quoted as saying, “There are two ways to conquer and enslave a nation. One is by the sword. The other is by debt.” The major conquests today are on the battlefield of debt, a war that is raging globally. Debt forces individuals into financial slavery to the banks, and it forces governments to relinquish their sovereignty to their creditors, which in the end are also private banks, the originators of all non-cash money today. In Great Britain, where the Bank of England is owned by the government, 97% of the money supply is issued privately by banks as loans. In the U.S., where the central bank is owned by a private consortium of banks, the percentage is even higher. The Federal Reserve issues Federal Reserve Notes (or dollar bills) and lends them to other banks, which then lend them at interest to individuals, businesses, and local and federal governments. That is true today, but in the past there have been successful models in which the government itself issued the national currency, whether as paper notes or as the credit of the nation. A stellar example of this enlightened approach to money and credit was the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, which operated successfully as a government-owned bank for most of the 20th century. Rather than issuing “sovereign debt” — federal bonds indebting the nation to pay at interest in perpetuity — the government through the Commonwealth Bank issued “sovereign credit,” the credit of the nation advanced to the government and its constituents. The Bank’s achievements were particularly remarkable considering that for its first eight years, from 1912 to 1920, it did not have the power to issue the national currency, and it operated without startup capital. Sir Denison Miller, Governor of the Bank from its creation in 1912 to 1923, was quoted in the Australian Press on July 7, 1921 as saying: The whole of the resources of Australia are at the back of this bank, and so strong as this continent is, so strong is the Commonwealth Bank. Whatever the Australian people can intelligently conceive in their minds and will loyally support, that can be done. This was not just hype. In a 2001 article titled “How Money Is Created in Australia,” David Kidd wrote of the Bank’s early accomplishments: Australia’s own government-established Commonwealth Bank achieved some impressive successes while it was ‘the peoples’ bank’, before being crippled by later government decisions and eventually sold. At a time when private banks were demanding 6% interest for loans, the Commonwealth Bank financed Australia’s first world war effort from 1914 to 1919 with a loan of $700,000,000 at an interest rate of a fraction of 1%, thus saving Australians some $12 million in bank charges. In 1916 it made funds available in London to purchase 15 cargo steamers to support Australia’s growing export trade. Until 1924 the benefits conferred upon the people of Australia by their Bank flowed steadily on. It financed jam and fruit pools to the extent of $3 million, it found $8 million for Australian homes, while to local government bodies, for construction of roads, tramways, harbours, gasworks, electric power plants, etc., it lent $18.72 million. It paid $6.194 million to the Commonwealth Government between December, 1920 and June, 1923 — the profits of its Note Issue Department — while by 1924 it had made on its other business a profit of $9 million, available for redemption of debt. The bank’s independently-minded Governor, Sir Denison Miller, used the bank’s credit power after the First World War to save Australians from the depression conditions being imposed in other countries… By 1931 amalgamations with other banks made the Commonwealth Bank the largest savings institution in Australia, capturing 60% of the nation’s savings. Harnessing the Secret Power of Banking for the Public Good The Commonwealth Bank was able to achieve so much with so little because both its first Governor, Denison Miller, and its first and most ardent proponent, King O’Malley, had been bankers themselves and knew the secret of banking: that banks create the “money” they lend simply by writing accounting entries into the deposit accounts of borrowers. This banking secret was confirmed by a number of early banking insiders. In a 1998 paper titled ” Manufacturing Money ,” Australian economist Mike Mansfield quoted the Rt. Hon. Reginald McKenna, former Chancellor of the Exchequer, who told shareholders of the Midland Bank on January 25, 1924: I am afraid the ordinary citizen will not like to be told that the banks can, and do, create and destroy money. The amount of money in existence varies only with the action of the banks in increasing or decreasing deposits and bank purchases. We know how this is effected. Every loan, overdraft or bank purchase creates a deposit, and every repayment of a loan, overdraft or bank sale destroys a deposit. Dr. Coombs, former Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, said in an address at Queensland University on September 15, 1954, “[W]hen money is lent by a bank it passes into the hands of the person who borrows it without anybody having less. Whenever a bank lends money there is therefore, an increase in the total amount of money available.” Ralph Hawtrey, Assistant Under Secretary to the British Treasury in the 1930s, wrote in Trade Depression and the Way Out , “When a bank lends, it creates money out of nothing.” In his book The Art of Central Banking , Hawtrey clarified this, writing: When a bank lends, it creates credit. Against the advance which it enters amongst its assets, there is a deposit entered in its liabilities. But other lenders have not the mystical power of creating the means of payment out of nothing. What they lend must be money that they have acquired through their economic activities. Banks can do what no one else can: “create the means of payment out of nothing.” The Commonwealth Bank’s far-sighted founders roped this guarded banking secret into the public service. The Bank Collapse of 1893 Spawns a New Public Banking Model The Commonwealth Bank was founded under conditions like those prevailing today: the country had just suffered a massive banking collapse. In the 1890s, however, there was no FDIC insurance, no social security, no unemployment insurance to soften the blow. People who thought they were well off suddenly found they had nothing. They could not withdraw their funds, write checks on their accounts, or sell their products or their homes, since there was no money with which to buy them. Desperate people were leaping from bridges or throwing themselves in front of trains. Something had to be done. The response of the Labor government was to pass a bill in 1911 which included a provision for a publicly-owned bank that would be backed by the assets of the government. In a rare move for the time, the bank was to have both savings and general bank business. It was also the first bank in Australia to receive a federal government guarantee. Jack Lang was Australia’s Treasurer in the Labor government of 1920-21 and Premier of New South Wales during the Great Depression. A controversial figure, he was relieved of his duties after he repudiated loans owed to the London bankers. In The Great Bust: The Depression of the Thirties (McNamara’s Books, Katoomba, 1962), Lang described the Commonwealth Bank’s triumphs and tribulations in revealing detail. He wrote: The Labor Party decided that a National Bank, backed with the assets of the Government, would not fail in times of financial stress. It also realised that such a bank would be a guarantee that money would be found for home building and other needs. After the collapse of the building societies, there was a great scarcity of money for such purposes. …Chief advocate of the cause of a Commonwealth Bank was King O’Malley, a colorful Canadian-American… Before coming to Australia, he had worked in a small New York bank, owned by an uncle. … He had been much impressed by the way that his uncle had created credit. A bank could create the credit, and at the same time manufacture the debit to balance it. That was the big discovery of O’Malley’s banking career. A born showman, he itched to try it out on a grand scale. He started his political career in South Australia by advocating a State Commercial Bank. In 1901 he went into the first Federal Parliament as a one-man pressure group to establish a Commonwealth Bank, and joined the Labor Party for that purpose. King O’Malley insisted that the Commonwealth Bank had to control the issue of its own notes, but he lost on that point — until 1920, when the Bank did take over the issuance of the national currency, just as the U.S. Federal Reserve was authorized to do in 1913. That was the beginning of the Commonwealth Bank’s central bank powers. But even before it had that power, the Bank was able to fund infrastructure and defense on a massive scale, and it did this without startup capital. These achievements were chiefly due to the insights and boldness of the Bank’s first Governor, Denison Miller. The other bankers, fearing competition, had thought that by getting one of their own men in as the bank’s governor, they could keep it in line. But they had not reckoned on their independent appointee, who saw the opportunity posed by a government-backed bank and set out to make it the finest institution the country had ever known. As Lang tells the story: The first test came when a decision was required regarding the amount of capital needed to start a bank of that kind. Under the Act, the Commonwealth had the right to sell and issue debentures totaling £1 million. Some even thought that amount of capital would be insufficient, having in mind what had happened in 1893. … When Denison Miller heard of it, his reply was that no capital was needed. Miller was wary of going to the politicians for money. He could get by without capital. Like King O’Malley, he knew how banking worked. (This, of course, was before the modern-day capital requirements imposed from abroad by the central banker’s bank, the Bank for International Settlements.) Lang went on: Miller was the only employee. He found a small office… and asked the Treasury for an advance of £10,000. That was probably the first and last time that the Commonwealth lent the Bank any money. From then on, it was all in the reverse direction. …By January, 1913 [Miller] had completed arrangements to open a bank in each State of the Commonwealth, and also an agency in London. … [O]n January 20th, 1913 he made a speech declaring the new Commonwealth Bank open for business. He said: “This bank is being started without capital, as none is required at the present time, but it is backed by the entire wealth and credit of the whole of Australia.” In those few simple words was the charter of the Bank, and the creed of Denison Miller, which he never tired of reciting. He promised to provide facilities to expand the natural resources of the country, and it would at all times be a people’s bank. “There is little doubt that in time it will be classed as one of the great banks of the world,” he added prophetically. …Slowly it began to dawn on the private banks that they may have harbored a viper. They had been so intent on the risks of having to contend with bank socialisation that they didn’t realise they had much more to fear from competition by an orthodox banker, with the resources of the country behind him. …One of the first demonstrations of his vigor came when the Melbourne Board of Works went on the market for money to redeem old loans, and also to raise new money. Up to that time, apart from Treasury Bills and advances by their own Savings Banks, Governments had depended on overseas loans from London. … In addition to stiff underwriting charges, they found that the best they could expect would be £1 million at 4 per cent., at 97 1/2 net. They then decided to approach Denison Miller, who had promised to provide special terms for such bodies. He immediately offered to lend them £3 millions at 95 on which the interest rate would be 4 per cent. They immediately clinched the deal. Asked where his very juvenile bank had raised all that money, Miller replied, “On the credit of the nation. It is unlimited.” Another major test came in 1914 with the First World War: The first reaction was the risk that people might start rushing to the banks to withdraw their money. The banks realised that they were still vulnerable if that happened. They were still afraid of another Black Friday. There was a hurried meeting of the principal bankers. Some reported that there were signs that a run was already starting. Denison Miller then said that the Commonwealth Bank on behalf of the Commonwealth would support any bank in difficulties. … That was the end of the panic. But it put Miller on the box seat. Now, for the first time, the Commonwealth Bank was taking the lead. It was giving, not taking, orders. . . . Denison Miller… was virtually in control of the financing of the war. The Government didn’t know how it was going to be achieved. Miller did. And so this interesting story continues. Miller died in 1923, and in 1924 the bankers got back in control, throttling the activities of the Commonwealth Bank and preventing it from saving Australians from the ravages of the 1930s Depression. In 1931, the bank board came into conflict with the Labor government of James Scullin . The Bank’s chairman refused to expand credit in response to the Great Depression unless the government cut pensions, which Scullin refused to do. Conflict surrounding this issue led to the fall of the government, and to demands from Labor for reform of the bank and more direct government control over monetary policy. The Commonwealth Bank received almost all of the powers of a central bank in emergency legislation passed during World War II, and at the end of the war it used this power to begin a dramatic expansion of the economy. In just five years, it opened hundreds of branches throughout Australia. In 1958 and 1959, the government split the bank, giving the central bank function to the Reserve Bank of Australia, with the Commonwealth Banking Corporation retaining its commercial banking functions. Both banks, however, remained publicly-owned. Eventually, the Commonwealth Bank had branches in every town and suburb; and in the bush, it had an agency in every post office or country store. As the largest bank in the country, it set the rates and set policy, which the others had to follow for fear of losing customers. The Commonwealth Bank was widely perceived to be an insurance policy against abuse by private banks, serving to ensure that everyone had access to equitable banking. It functioned as a wholly owned state bank until the 1990s, when it was privatized. Its focus then changed to maximization of profits, with steady and massive branch and agency closures, staff layoffs, and reduced access to Automated Teller Machines and to cash from supermarket checkouts. It has now become just another part of the banking cartel, but proponents say it was once the lifeblood of the country. Today there is renewed interest in reviving a publicly-owned bank in Australia on the Commonwealth Bank model. The United States and other countries would do well to consider this option too. Special thanks to Peter Myers for reproducing major portions of Jack Lang’s book in his weekly newsletter.

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Barnes & Noble Lawsuit Continues: Judge Weighs Arguments

July 23, 2010

WILMINGTON, Del. — A poison pill plan adopted by Barnes & Noble could have far-reaching consequences affecting the rights of shareholders in public companies, an attorney for billionaire Ron Burkle suggested Thursday. But a Delaware judge presiding over a lawsuit in which Burkle is challenging the poison pill said that the New York-based bookseller may have responded in a reasonable manner last year after Burkle more than doubled his stake in the company. After hearing final arguments following a four-day trial earlier this month, Vice Chancellor Leo Strine Jr. said he would try to issue a ruling quickly. He gave no indication of how soon he might rule but acknowledged that his decision may be appealed to the Delaware Supreme Court. Barnes & Noble’s annual meeting is scheduled to be held by Sept. 30. Burkle has indicated that he wants to wage a proxy contest to elect three new directors and would like time to buy more voting shares before an Aug. 16 deadline if the judge rules in his favor. “I’m going to try my best to get you an answer, and you can go to the Supreme Court if you don’t like my answer on either side,” Strine told attorneys. Under the poison pill, also known as a shareholder rights plan, an investor can’t buy more than 20 percent of the company’s shares without board approval. Doing so would allow other shareholders to buy stock at a steep discount, thus diluting the voting power of the acquiring investor. Burkle, who increased his ownership stake in Barnes & Noble last year to about 18 percent, said the rights plan creates an unfair playing field that favors the controlling Riggio family, which owns more than 30 percent of the company’s common stock. Burkle’s attorneys also argue that the poison pill goes beyond defending against a hostile takeover by limiting the ability of shareholders to wage a proxy contest, or even to agree to vote against the pill when it comes up for ratification later this year. “At a time when the Delaware legislature, Congress and the SEC are acting to facilitate the ability of shareholders to exercise their franchise, defendants ask this court to allow directors the unilateral power to block stockholders from forming groups to elect directors or vote down a rights plan,” Burkle attorney David McBride wrote in a post-trial brief. “… Indeed, such a purpose for a rights plan has never been sanctioned.” Strine pointed to two previous decisions in which the Delaware Supreme Court upheld poison pills that affected shareholders’ ability to wage proxy contests, but McBride argued that the circumstances of those cases were different. He noted that Barnes & Noble founder and chairman Leonard Riggio, who is up for re-election to the board this year, controls, along with other family members and insiders, more than 35 percent of the company’s shares. “This rights plan has a substantial impact, and a self-interested impact, on an imminent proxy contest,” McBride said, adding that the pill puts the Riggios “in position to have a substantial margin with respect to voting power.” Attorneys for Barnes & Noble have argued that the poison pill does not preclude a proxy contest, only concerted action among shareholders holding large voting blocs of shares. Barnes & Noble officials are particularly concerned about an alliance between Burkle and Aletheia Research & Management Inc., an investment fund that holds about 16 percent of Barnes & Noble’s outstanding shares. Burkle has said he is not interested in a takeover but wants to see changes in the company’s corporate governance. But Sandra Goldstein, an attorney for Barnes & Noble, suggested that Burkle may not be satisfied with three directors of his choosing and might try to appoint three more next year. McBride countered that Barnes & Noble has failed to identify any specific threat posed by Burkle that would justify the poison pill. He said the board needed more than a vague fear that three new directors nominated by Burkle might cause harm to the company or lead to a change in control. If Barnes & Noble believes stockholder activism is a problem, McBride added, “it’s like saying the stockholder franchise is the problem.”

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Chris Bustamante Named President of Rio Salado College

June 24, 2010

TEMPE, AZ–(Marketwire – June 24, 2010) –  Chris Bustamante, Ed.D. has been named President of Rio Salado College, the largest in headcount of the 10 colleges within the Maricopa Community College District (MCCD). The appointment, which was recommended by Chancellor Rufus Glasper, was approved by the Maricopa Community Colleges Governing Board at its June 22 meeting and is effective immediately.

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Bank Stress Tests in EU Face Questions Over Toughness, Government Backing

June 18, 2010

By Andrew MacAskill and Simon Clark June 18 (Bloomberg) — The European Union’s decision to publish the results of stress tests on the region’s lenders was welcomed by shareholders seeking more transparency. Investors still want to know how tough the terms of the tests will be. The studies will be done “ institution by institution,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy told reporters at an EU summit in Brussels yesterday. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said it was important to give “maximum transparency.” Asked how the governments would react if the tests revealed shortcomings, she said the EU has “taken precautions,” including a 750 billion- euro ($928 billion) financial backstop. “The results could be very helpful reassuring investors that the European financial system is sound,” said Andrew Milligan , the Edinburgh-based head of global strategy at Standard Life Investments Ltd ., which oversees about $221 billion. “The devil will be in the detail.” Merkel and Sarkozy rebuffed concerns from executives including Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann that publishing the tests could undermine confidence in the banks unless governments promise aid. When the U.S. carried out similar stress tests more than a year ago, it pledged to provide capital to banks that couldn’t raise it. The EU still hasn’t disclosed details of its tests, including whether they include a sovereign debt restructuring, raising concern among money managers they may not be stringent enough. “The problem with the stress testing, in most people’s opinion, is fairly serious: It’s not stringent enough,” said Ralph Silva , an analyst at London-based Silva Research Network, which specializes in financial-services firms. ‘Markets Asking’ The decision came after Spanish government officials unexpectedly pledged to publish results on individual banks, becoming the first European government to do so. International debt markets have been shut to most Spanish companies and banks as investors lost confidence in the country, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA Chairman Francisco Gonzalez said June 14. “Europe needs this because the markets are asking for it,” Gonzalez said at a seminar in Santander, Spain. Bankers and their lobby groups across Europe had opposed publication. Deutsche Bank’s Ackermann said last week that releasing the stress tests would be “very, very dangerous” if government mechanisms to support European banks weren’t in place beforehand. A spokesman for the bank declined to comment. Germany’s BdB banking association, which had opposed making the findings public, changed its stance yesterday. It now says publication can “contribute to creating confidence and calming the markets” as long as it doesn’t leave “room for misinterpretation.” ‘Could be Misinterpreted’ In London, the British Bankers’ Association said it still opposes publication of data on individual banks. “The results could be misinterpreted and could lead to a run on a sound bank,” Irving Henry , the BBA’s policy director of prudential capital and risk, said in an interview yesterday. The wider European stress tests will be published in the second half of July “at the latest,” European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said yesterday. The EU hasn’t so far disclosed the test criteria. Failure to include sovereign debt exposure would “impact the credibility” of the tests, said Ian Gordon , a banking analyst at Exane BNP Paribas SA in London. “Every piece of withheld data gives skeptics reason to grumble that the tests are not transparent and therefore not meaningful.” The test criteria should include a possible decline in economic growth, a fall in house prices, the banks’ ability to fund their balance sheets, and a closing of the wholesale money markets, said Jane Coffey who helps manage $51 billion at Royal London Asset Management, including Barclays Plc stock. ‘More Confidence’ “It should give the market more confidence that they are not hiding anything, and that the banks are solidly based, and if they are not, that the problem is in a small enough number of banks,” Coffey said. “Transparency is usually good for confidence. They won’t be doing this if it was going to cause a banking collapse, I would guess.” “We need to have a region-wide assessment to quantify and compare the banks — that’s what this is all about,” said Guy de Blonay , who helps manage about 19.5 billion pounds ($29 billion) at Jupiter Fund Management Plc in London. “Governments want investors to be able to quantify and appreciate the situation on the back of official findings.” The financial strength of European nations and their banks is closely interconnected, according to Morgan Stanley analysts, who wrote in a June 16 report that countries sharing the euro and their banks are caught in a “vicious circle.” ‘Eroded Confidence’ “Sovereign rating downgrades have eroded confidence in the balance sheets of the banks, most of which own government bonds,” analysts Joachim Fels and Elga Bartsch wrote. “This, together with higher borrowing costs for fiscally challenged countries, has raised funding costs for banks in the interbank market and in the capital markets.” The EU decision comes more than a year after the U.S. released the results of stress tests it carried out on 19 financial institutions. Publication helped trigger a rally that lifted the Standard & Poor’s Financials Index 36 percent from the start of May through the end of last year. The Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index is down 7.4 percent this year. The EU tests may have less impact on markets because of concerns about the level of government debt in Europe, Jupiter’s De Blonay said. “It’s probably not going to be as positive a reaction as in the U.S. simply because we have an overlay of sovereign risk on the banks in Europe,” he said. European Central Bank Governing Council member Axel Weber said future stress tests in the banking industry will be more comprehensive than today’s evaluations and may include government bonds. EU states should also provide a backstop “if adverse scenarios materialize,” he said yesterday. The cost of providing that backstop may still fuel concern among investors that already indebted governments were taking on too much additional borrowing, Standard Life’s Milligan said. To contact the reporters on this story: Andrew MacAskill in London at amacaskill@bloomberg.net ; Simon Clark in London at sclark4@bloomberg.net

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UK Chancellor Disbands FSA, Transfers Powers to Bank of England

June 17, 2010

UK Chancellor Disbands FSA, Transfers Powers to Bank of England

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U.K. Scraps FSA in Biggest Bank Regulation Overhaul Since 1997

June 17, 2010

By Gonzalo Vina June 17 (Bloomberg) — Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said he will abolish the Financial Services Authority and give most of its power to the Bank of England, undoing the regulatory system set up by Gordon Brown in 1997. In the most sweeping changes to financial regulation since then, the watchdog will be wound down and replaced by three bodies over the next two years, the chancellor said. A Prudential Regulatory Authority will be created as a subsidiary of the central bank. Osborne will also set up a Financial Policy Committee at the bank and establish a consumer protection and markets agency. Osborne, whose Conservative Party took power after the May 6 election, is delivering on a promise made almost a year ago to shake up the way the U.K.’s banks and markets are policed. He’s blamed the system established by former Labour Prime Minister Brown for failing to prevent a financial crisis that saddled taxpayers with liabilities of as much as 1.4 trillion pounds ($2.1 trillion) and plunged the economy into the worst recession since World War II. “At the heart of the crisis was a rapid and unsustainable increase in debt that our macroeconomic and regulatory system utterly failed to identify let alone prevent,” Osborne told bankers at his first Mansion House dinner in London’s financial district last night. Northern Rock Brown’s government had to nationalize Northern Rock Plc , the first U.K. casualty of the credit crunch, in February 2008. The lender nearly collapsed in 2007 after it had to seek emergency funding from the central bank and then suffered a run on its deposits. The government also had to take controlling stakes in Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Lloyds Banking Group Plc . Osborne’s plan scraps Brown’s tripartite system of regulation — in which the central bank, FSA and Treasury shared responsibilities — and places most of the onus on Bank of England Governor Mervyn King . Legislation to replace the FSA will be in place by 2012, Osborne said. Angela Knight , the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, a lobby group, said she welcomed steps to make the system “clearer and more effective” and pledged to support the government during the transition. The FSA’s chief executive, Hector Sants , 54, will stay on at the authority while it is wound down and will take up new roles on the bodies that replace it, becoming a deputy governor of the central bank. ‘Macro Issues’ Executive power over financial supervision will go to the Financial Policy Committee at the central bank, which will operate in a similar way to its rate-setting monetary policy panel. The new committee “will have the tools and the responsibility to look across the economy at the macro issues that may threaten economic and financial stability and the tools to take effective action in response,” Osborne said. The committee will be chaired by King and will include Sants among its members. The panel’s work will be scrutinized by Parliament’s Treasury Committee, the chancellor said. The Prudential Regulatory Authority “will carry out the prudential regulation of financial firms, including banks, investment banks, building societies and insurance companies,” Osborne said. Sants will be its chief executive and King its chairman. Andrew Bailey, the head of the central bank unit that deals with failed banks, will be Sants’s deputy. ‘Authority, Knowledge’ “Only independent central banks have the broad macroeconomic understanding, the authority and the knowledge required to make the kind of macro-prudential judgments that are required now and in the future,” Osborne said. “They must also be responsible for day-to-day micro-prudential regulation as well.” The third pillar of Osborne’s regulatory overhaul will come with the creation of a Consumer Protection and Markets Authority. Osborne said the agency will regulate financial firms “providing services to consumers” and maintain the “integrity of the U.K.’s financial markets.” King told the Mansion House dinner that the new framework will assure the stability of the financial system. “A credible macro-prudential regime could help forestall both excessive exuberance and unnecessary caution,” King said. “By altering the pressure on the financial brakes according to circumstances, regulation, far from being an inflexible foe, would become a flexible friend.” FSA Chairman Adair Turner said he welcomed Osborne’s plans. ‘Much Clearer’ “The overall future shape of financial regulation is now much clearer and we are in a strong position to create a future regulatory system which builds on the FSA’s achievements over the last few years of major change,” Turner said in an e-mailed statement. “It is ironic that while in opposition the Tories identified the tripartite system as the root of all regulatory evil, yet here they are as government inventing multiple front- line agencies and creating distracting confusion in the process,” said Ash Saluja, a lawyer at CMS Cameron McKenna in London. Osborne also said he will bring under one roof the handling of “serious economic crime,” which is currently dealt with by a number of organizations. The chancellor also gave the names last night of the people who will work alongside former Bank of England Chief Economist John Vickers when he leads a panel on the future of banking. Martin Wolf of the Financial Times, Bill Winters , the former co-chief executive of JP Morgan’s investment bank, Martin Taylor, formerly of Barclays Plc, and Clare Spottiswoode , the former head of the gas regulator Ofgas, will work with Vickers on the Independent Banking Commission, Osborne said. To contact the reporter on this story: Gonzalo Vina in London at gvina@bloomberg.net .

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Sarkozy, Merkel Urge Faster Action on Sovereign Swaps Market, Short Sales

June 9, 2010

By Ben Moshinsky and Gregory Viscusi June 9 (Bloomberg) — France and Germany called on the European Union to speed up curbs on financial speculation, saying some bets against stocks and government bonds should be banned as markets suffer a resurgence of “strong volatility.” In a joint two-page letter, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel sought proposals from European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso on a ban on so-called naked short sales of “certain” stock and bonds, as well as on naked credit-default swaps on sovereign bonds. They call for proposals to be ready by the middle of next month rather than October as had been planned. The letter shapes a common position between the leaders of Europe’s two largest economies after Merkel last month caught other EU leaders off guard when she unilaterally banned naked sovereign credit-default-swaps within Germany. She argued the actions of “speculators” exacerbated the European debt crisis that has rattled markets and driven the euro to a four-year low. “The return of strong volatility in the markets makes it necessary to question certain financial methods and certain products such as naked short-selling and credit default swaps,” the leaders said in the letter, e-mailed by their respective offices in Paris and Berlin today. While Sarkozy made greater market regulation one of his main rallying cries since the start of the financial crisis, he has so far refused to follow Merkel’s lead and instead pushed for EU-wide measures. ‘Imperative’ to Regulate “The commission is doing a good job, just that the president and the chancellor want it speeded up,” French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde told reporters today after a meeting of Sarkozy’s Cabinet. “Regulating financial markets is imperative to restore confidence.” The Commission, the executive arm of the EU, should have its proposals ready before a mid-July meeting of European finance ministers, the letter said. The Commission is drafting proposals on short selling and sovereign credit-default-swaps which had been due in October. The Commission should “consider the possibility of a ban at the European level of naked short sales on all or certain shares and bonds, and on certain naked CDSs on sovereign securities,” the letter said. The European Commission will make a statement on the proposals at noon today in Brussels, said Chantal Hughes , a spokeswoman Michel Barnier , the EU’s financial services commissioner. “It would be very surprising if any proposals from the European Commission would be softer than what Germany has put in place,” Thomas Tindemanns , a financial regulatory lawyer at White & Case LLP in Brussels, said in a telephone interview. Merkel Isolated Stocks around the world dropped on May 19 when a temporary German ban was introduced. Eddy Wymeersch , chairman of the Committee of European Securities Regulators , said May 26 there was no “unanimous move to follow the German route.” Merkel’s Cabinet on June 2 nevertheless backed a draft bill that bans naked short-selling of credit-default swaps on euro- area government bonds and stocks of German companies. The draft, which will be put to parliament before the summer recess begins on July 9, also gives Germany’s Finance Ministry and the BaFin regulator leeway to ban euro-related derivatives trades without seeking further endorsement by lawmakers, and obliges investors to inform BaFin of naked short positions on shares in German companies. Credit-default swaps are derivatives that pay the buyer face value if a borrower — a country or a company — defaults. In exchange, the swap seller gets the underlying securities or the cash equivalent. Traders in naked credit-default swaps buy insurance on bonds they don’t own. Naked short selling involves selling a security without ever being in possession of it. Working ‘Closely’ Merkel and Sarkozy agreed in a phone conversation to work “closely together,” her office said in a statement issued late yesterday. They said they will prepare jointly for a June 17 EU summit and the subsequent Group of 20 gathering in Canada. Government officials have said the sovereign debt crisis and weak euro will dominate both meetings. European governments must “deliver a strong and unified position” on financial services rules before the G-20 summit in Toronto, Barroso told journalists last week in Brussels. Pia Ahrenkilde-Hansen , a spokeswoman for Barroso, couldn’t be immediately reached for comment. To contact the reporters on this story: Gregory Viscusi in Paris at gviscusi@bloomberg.net ; Ben Moshinsky in Brussels at bmoshinsky@bloomberg.net .

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Cameron Says Labour Government Left Economy in Worse State Than He Thought

June 7, 2010

By Robert Hutton and Thomas Penny June 7 (Bloomberg) — U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron , preparing voters for the deepest spending cuts in a generation, said the previous Labour government left the public finances in a weaker state than he anticipated. “The overall scale of the problem is even worse than we thought,” Cameron said in a speech today in Milton Keynes , 50 miles (80 kilometers) north of London. “How we deal with these things will affect our economy, our society — indeed our whole way of life.” The U.K.’s Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition is seeking public backing for cuts that will be the deepest since Margaret Thatcher was prime minister in the 1980s and that will last longer than any other since World War II. The pound has fallen more than 10 percent against the dollar this year amid concern the government will struggle to fix the public finances. Cameron laid the ground for the emergency budget on June 22 in which Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will set out the overall reductions needed to tackle a deficit that swelled to 11.1 percent of gross domestic product in the year through March, among the highest in the Group of Seven. He said Treasury estimates show government debt-interest costs heading toward 70 billion pounds ($101 billion) in five years’ time, up from 31 billion pounds in the last fiscal year. “Today we spend more on debt interest than we do on running schools in England,” Cameron said. “But 70 billion pounds means spending more on debt interest than we currently do on running schools in England, plus on combating climate change, plus all that we spend on transport.” Housing, Education A full spending review in the fall will set budgets for each department for the three years starting April 2011, with the Institute for Fiscal Studies predicting that areas including transport, housing and higher education could face cuts of as much as a quarter. Cameron sought to pin the blame for these cuts on Gordon Brown , Labour’s chancellor from 1997 to 2007 and then prime minister until he lost the election in May. “I think people understand by now that the debt crisis is the legacy of the last government,” Cameron said. “But exactly the same applies to the action we will need to take to deal with it. If there are cuts, they are part of that legacy.” Labour Reaction Labour dismissed the attack. “Labour stopped recession becoming depression,” Liam Byrne , former chief secretary to the Treasury, said in an e-mailed statement. “Because we made the right calls the coalition has inherited an economy that is growing, borrowing which is falling and unemployment lower than in America or Europe.” The pound has fallen 3.2 percent against the dollar since Cameron took office on May 11 and the FTSE 100 Index share index has lost 4.4 percent. The benchmark 10-year government-bond yield has declined 38 basis points to 3.5 percent. As of 1 p.m., the pound was up 0.2 percent at $1.4477, the 10-year gilt yield was little changed and the FTSE 100 was 0.5 percent weaker at 5099.70. “Raising taxes and cutting spending is socially painful. But what’s the alternative, keeping generous budget policies?” Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who predicted the financial crisis, said in an interview with Le Monde. “The markets have already sounded the alarm that continuing that way would lead to bankruptcy,” he said. “Austerity isn’t optional.” ‘Fundamental’ Review Osborne over the weekend promised a “fundamental” review of government spending. He and his chief secretary, Danny Alexander , will tomorrow set out their approach and pledge an unprecedented level of public consultation. The effort to build support for cuts is based on a model used in Canada in the 1990s. Osborne met with his Canadian counterpart Jim Flaherty in South Korea during Group of 20 talks at the weekend. “What we want to do is undertake a real examination of where we’re getting value for money in government, of whether what the government does really needs to be done,” Osborne said in a Bloomberg Television interview on June 6. Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg told the Observer newspaper in an interview published yesterday that the cuts would not prove a divisive as those implemented by Thatcher. “It is important that people understand that fiscal retrenchment does not mean a repeat of the 1980s,” Clegg said. “We’re going to do this differently.” ‘Credible Plan’ Osborne has already announced 6.2 billion pounds of immediate cuts and said the budget will set out a “credible plan” to eliminate the bulk of the 156 billion-pound deficit over the coming five years, with spending taking the strain. Labor unions urged the government to raise taxes on the rich, saying the proposed spending cuts will disproportionately hit the poor and vulnerable and risk plunging the economy back into recession. “Of course we have to manage the deficit, but there are other ways of reducing it and that includes making those who caused the crisis pay a bit more, and by tackling tax avoidance and evasion,” said Dave Prentis , general secretary of Unison, the largest U.K. public-sector union with more than 1.3 million members. “There was nothing in this speech that told the rich, the banking and financial sector or the City speculators that their privileged way of life will change.” To contact the reporters on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net ; Thomas Penny in London at tpenny@bloomberg.net .

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Merkel Seeks `Decisive’ German Budget Cuts, Putting Her at Odds With U.S.

June 6, 2010

By Brian Parkin June 6 (Bloomberg) — Chancellor Angela Merkel said Germany is poised for a “decisive” round of budget cuts that will shape government policy for years to come, fueling disagreement with U.S. officials who favor measures to step up growth. Speaking at the start of two days of Cabinet talks in Berlin called to identify potential annual savings of 10 billion euros ($12 billion), Merkel said Europe’s debt crisis underscores the need for efforts to ensure the euro’s stability. “It’s not exaggerated to say that this Cabinet conclave will give important direction for Germany in coming years, years that will be decisive,” Merkel told reporters today before the meeting in the Chancellery. “We can only spend what we receive in income.” Merkel’s government is reining in its deficit and urging fellow euro-region states to do likewise to thwart a sovereign- debt crisis. The savings risk further alienating voters angry at Germany’s 148 billion-euro contribution to a European plan to backstop the euro, and clash with Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner ’s June 5 call at a Group of 20 meeting for “stronger domestic demand growth” in European countries like Germany with trade surpluses. At stake for Merkel is “the credibility of Germany as one of the countries forcing the others to start fiscal tightening,” Juergen Michels , chief euro-area economist at Citigroup Inc. in London, said in a phone interview on June 4. “It’s a very fine line between fiscal tightening and choking off the economy.” The Defense Ministry said last week there are “no taboos” when it comes to potential savings, including a possible reduction in the army’s size by 100,000 active-duty soldiers plus scrapping conscription. Tax rises, welfare cuts and the loss of about 10,000 civil servant posts are among other measures being considered, Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported, citing unnamed government sources. The Cabinet seeks to cut almost 30 billion euros through the end of its legislative term in 2013, Bild newspaper said yesterday, without saying how it got the information. To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Parkin in Berlin at bparkin@bloomberg.net .

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Israel Under Growing Pressure to Ease Gaza Blockade After Flotilla Deaths

June 1, 2010

By Jonathan Ferziger and Calev Ben-David June 1 (Bloomberg) — Russia joined the European Union in demanding that Israel open its borders into the Gaza Strip and Egypt said it will allow medical and aid shipments into the enclave, a day after nine people were killed in an Israeli raid on a ship attempting to breach its blockade. The United Nations Security Council today condemned “acts which resulted” in the deaths while Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the Israeli raid was an act of “despicable recklessness.” Israel says it needs to control Gaza’s borders or else the Islamic Hamas movement which controls the enclave will smuggle in material to make rockets and attack its territory. Palestinians, backed by the UN and human rights groups, say the restrictions on food imports and construction materials have created a humanitarian crisis. Egypt has shut its border crossings into Gaza since Hamas seized full control of the area in 2007. “We conduct a dialogue with countries about the sanctions that apply on Gaza and we’re open to suggestions, though obviously the naval blockage must remain in place as long as we know that Iran, Syria and Hezbollah will try to bring in deadly missiles that will be shot at Israel,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ’s spokesman, Mark Regev , said in an interview today. Israel’s benchmark TA-25 Index fell for a fourth day, declining 1.7 percent at 2:01 p.m. in Tel Aviv after a 1.6 percent drop yesterday. ‘Negative Sentiment’ Israeli markets “ will continue to trade amid the negative sentiment and uncertainty surrounding the Gaza flotilla incident and deteriorating relations with Turkey,” Saar Golan , a trader at Clal Finance Brokerage Ltd. in Tel Aviv, said in a note to investors. The situation may harm future contracts for Elbit Systems Ltd., Israel’s biggest non-government defense contractor, which has sold drones and other military equipment to Turkey, Golan said. Elbit fell 4.2 percent to 188.80 shekels. Russia and the European Union called for the “immediate opening of crossings for the flow of humanitarian aid, commercial goods and people to and from Gaza,” according to a joint statement. Egypt will open its Rafah border crossing to allow medical and humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip, state-run Nile News television reported today. The report didn’t say how long the crossing would remain open. Though Egypt supports Palestinian independence, it opposes Hamas, which wants to create an Islamic state. Blockading Gaza “is turning into a human rights and public relations disaster” for Israel, said Martin Indyk , director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington and a former U.S. ambassador to Israel. “Israel needs to find a better way.” Knives and Clubs Israel said its soldiers were attacked with knives and clubs after boarding a vessel and seven soldiers were wounded, including by gunfire after activists aboard the ship managed to grab Israeli firearms. The clash was in international waters. The six ships in the “Freedom Flotilla” came from Sweden, Greece and Turkey on a mission aimed at breaking Israel’s blockade that organizers pledged would be nonviolent. Israel had warned it wouldn’t let the ships reach Gaza and called the aid delivery a propaganda trick. Several of the dead were from Turkey, which said relations with Israel may suffer irreparable harm. Israel is holding 634 people who were taken from the boats, Interior Ministry spokeswoman Sabine Haddad said. Forty-five others signed statements waiving their right to a court hearing and were deported immediately. The detainees were taken to a prison in the southern city of Beersheba to await deportation hearings, she said. The majority of them are from Turkey while others are from countries including the U.K., U.S., Greece, Sweden, Norway, Morocco, Kuwait and Lebanon. ‘Disproportionate’ Force French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Israel had used “disproportionate” force. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she had spoken by phone with Netanyahu and Erdogan called for “a comprehensive investigation.” New York-based Human Rights Watch said the raid raises “grave concerns about possible unlawful and excessive use of force.” Netanyahu cut short a trip to Canada to return to Israel, canceling a meeting scheduled in Washington with President Barack Obama . “Gaza has become a Hamas terrorist base, backed by Iran, firing thousands of rockets at Israel, and has amassed tens of thousands more to fire at our cities, our towns, our children,” Netanyahu said yesterday during a visit to Ottawa. “We try to let all humanitarian goods into Gaza after they have undergone our security checks.” ‘Deep Regret’ Obama expressed “deep regret at the loss of life” and said it was important to learn “all the facts and circumstances around this morning’s tragic events as soon as possible,” according to a statement yesterday from the White House. Israel has restricted entry of people and goods into Gaza since the territory was taken over by Hamas in 2007, allowing in a limited range of supplies including food, clothing and medicine. Hamas is considered a terrorist organization by Israel, the U.S. and the European Union. Israel fought a three-week war in Gaza starting in December 2008 that it said was meant to stop Hamas and other militant groups from firing rockets into its territory. Some 330 rockets have been fired from Gaza into Israel since the end of the operation, killing one foreign worker last March, the army said. Israeli bombing and ground operations during the war destroyed thousands of houses across Gaza, and Israel’s restrictions on construction materials have prevented Palestinians from being able to rebuild. The army says Hamas has used materials such as cement and iron pipes to build rockets and bunkers. Indyk said one way Israel could solve its “dilemma” was a “cease-fire deal in which Hamas commits to preventing violent attacks from Gaza and stopping all smuggling into Gaza in return for Israel opening the passages with international monitors.” To contact the reporters on this story: Jonathan Ferziger in Tel Aviv at jferziger@bloomberg.net ; Calev Ben-David in Jerusalem at cbendavid@bloomberg.net .

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Cameron Bull Market in Gilts Beating Merkel Bonds as U.K. Keeps AAA Rating

June 1, 2010

By Paul Dobson and Anchalee Worrachate June 1 (Bloomberg) — U.K. government debt investors are gaining confidence in Prime Minister David Cameron’s plan to tame a budget deficit that the world’s biggest bond-fund manager described as a “bed of nitroglycerine.” Gilts returned 2.2 percent since Cameron’s Conservatives agreed to govern with the Liberal Democrats on May 11, compared with 1 percent for U.S. Treasuries and 2 percent for German bunds, according to indexes from Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit. Ten-year gilt yields fell to the lowest in more than seven months on May 25, a day after the government announced 6.25 billion pounds ($9.1 billion) of spending cuts for 2010. Fidelity International, Loomis Sayles & Co. and investors overseeing more than $1 trillion say Cameron, 43, will reduce the biggest deficit among the Group of Seven nations and avoid a downgrade of the U.K’s AAA credit rating. The coalition said it designed the cuts to send a “shockwave” through state departments and promised a “comprehensive and credible” plan to tackle the 156 billion-pound shortfall. “The market is inclined to give the new coalition government the benefit of the doubt and see what the spending cuts look like,” said David Rolley , who helps oversee $106 billion as co-head of global fixed-income in Boston at Loomis Sayles. “There is local institutional bid for long-dated government paper, and that’s pretty useful.” Financial Shock Investors demanded 94 basis points in extra yield to hold U.K. 10-year bonds rather than German bunds as of 2:08 p.m. today in London, narrowing from a four-and-a-half-year high of 103 basis points, or 1.03 percentage points, on May 7. The 10-year gilt yield fell one basis point to 3.56 percent, after reaching a low of 3.45 percent on May 25. British securities returned 4.4 percent in 2010, beating the 3.9 percent gain for Treasuries and trailing the 6.4 percent return for bunds, according to the Merrill Lynch indexes. “The very first decision the government has made is to bring down the deficit and that’s good news,” said Axel Botte , a strategist at AXA Investment Managers in Paris who helps oversee about 500 billion euros ($615 billion). “It’s taken out some of the risk premium and after that vote of confidence, gilts are well placed compared to U.S. Treasuries and bunds.” European nations are under pressure from investors to cut debt after Greece’s budget deficit soared to 13.6 percent of gross domestic product last year, precipitating the biggest shock to world markets since the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Merkel’s Share Europe’s leaders pieced together a rescue package of almost $1 trillion amid speculation the euro area may break up. The extra fiscal obligations that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is taking on are making bunds riskier to investors relative to gilts. German lawmakers agreed to contribute as much as 148 billion euros to indebted European states. Germany’s auction last week of five-year notes drew the lowest demand since March 2008. Investors bid for 6.1 billion euros of 5.45 billion euros of securities sold, a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.1, the least since the sale of similar securities on March 26, 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The government originally planned to sell 7 billion euros. The Bundesbank was forced to retain 22 percent of the offer. ‘Avoid’ Bunds “Yields have to go higher,” Michael Markovic , a senior fixed-income strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG in Zurich, said May 27 in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Our advice to clients is really to avoid this intermediate-to-longer segment of the German yield curve.” In the U.S., President Barack Obama is banking on measures to stimulate job growth and the economy to reduce the deficit. The White House budget office projects a record $1.55 trillion gap in the year ending Sept. 30, up almost 10 percent from last year’s $1.41 trillion. The U.K. budget gap is like a “bed of nitroglycerine,” Bill Gross , who runs the world’s biggest mutual fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said in January. He cited the nation’s debt load and the potential for currency devaluation as risks for bondholders. The coalition between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats “is a step in the right direction,” Michael Amey , Pimco’s executive vice president of U.K. fixed income, said in an interview on May 20. “But that’s just the first of a number of steps that one will need to see before gaining comfort on a longer-term outlook for the gilt market.” Schroders Is ‘Cautious’ Schroders Plc’s David Scammell said he is “cautious” on gilts because of the size of the government’s task. David Laws , the new government’s chief secretary at the Treasury until he resigned during the weekend following revelations about his parliamentary expenses, said he found a note from his predecessor, Liam Byrne , that said: “I’m afraid to tell you there’s no money left.” “If they can’t do something that is deemed to be credible, we are in danger of higher yields and a downgrade,” said Scammell, a money manager at Schroders in London, which oversees about $223 billion of assets. “At the moment the U.K. is in the good-market camp. But it’s right on the edge.” Cameron’s challenge is to maintain growth in a nation whose debt will rise to 77 percent of GDP this year and may approach 100 percent by 2014, according to Standard & Poor’s. The rating company affirmed its “negative” outlook on the U.K.’s AAA grade on March 29 “in the absence of a strong fiscal consolidation plan.” Investec Turns Bullish The U.K. prime minister promised to accelerate deficit reductions. A newly-created Office of Budget Responsibility, headed by former Treasury adviser Alan Budd , will produce new forecasts before a June 22 emergency budget. “The situation in the U.K. is salvageable,” said John Stopford , co-head of global fixed income in London for Investec Asset Management Ltd., which oversees about $65 billion. Stopford has an “overweight” position in the bonds after changing from “underweight.” That means his funds now hold a greater percentage of gilts than in the benchmark indexes he uses to measure performance. Britain’s ruling parties said May 20 they are united over the need for swift action to reduce the record shortfall. “I fully support the efforts of the chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne , to deal with this problem urgently,” Liberal Democrat Business Secretary Vince Cable told reporters in London as the new government presented its policy program. Shared Program Osborne, a Conservative, said deficit reduction “takes precedence, and that’s very, very important.” The program commits the coalition to cutting the deficit at a faster pace than planned by the Labour government, he said. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said May 12 he backs the bid to start cuts this year. For Standard Life Investments, the outlook for gilts has improved since before the election, when investors speculated a so-called hung parliament with no outright winner would lead to a minority government too weak to tackle the deficit. “The market has given them a bit of a thumbs up,” said Richard Batty , a global investment strategist in Edinburgh who helps to oversee Standard Life’s $175 billion. “It seems the government can work more effectively on its fiscal plan than we thought it could a few months ago.” Cameron, who called Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg a “joke” before the election, made deficit reduction a focus of his manifesto. Cable, who spoke for the Liberal Democrats on financial matters before the May 6 poll, said in April rising unemployment exposed the “folly of Tory plans to pull the rug from under the recovery” with early spending cuts. Losing ‘Patience’ Any sign of a disagreement between the two parties over the deficit strategy may send bond yields soaring, according to Ignis Asset Management. “The market could lose patience very quickly if it is disappointed by their efforts,” said Russ Oxley , head of rates in Glasgow at Ignis, which has about $100 billion of assets. “A market crisis would precipitate a downgrade.” Concern that the U.K.’s rating will be lowered is premature, said Ian Fishwick , a money manager who oversees about $3.5 billion at Fidelity International, the London-based affiliate of Fidelity Investments, the world’s biggest mutual- fund company. “The U.K. does have sufficient flexibility to deal with these problems and so long as it’s evident that they are moving in the right direction, I think the rating agencies will give the U.K. time,” he said. “The key thing that this government is going to do differently from the old government is to start tackling the deficit more quickly.” To contact the reporter on this story: Paul Dobson in London at pdobson2@bloomberg.net ; Anchalee Worrachate in London at aworrachate@bloomberg.net .

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Cameron Gilt Bull Market Beats Bunds as U.K. Retains AAA Rating

June 1, 2010

By Paul Dobson and Anchalee Worrachate June 1 (Bloomberg) — U.K. government debt investors are gaining confidence in Prime Minister David Cameron’s plan to tame a budget deficit that the world’s biggest bond-fund manager described as a “bed of nitroglycerine.” Gilts returned 2.2 percent since Cameron’s Conservatives agreed to govern with the Liberal Democrats on May 11, compared with 1 percent for U.S. Treasuries and 2 percent for German bunds, according to indexes from Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit. Ten-year gilt yields fell to the lowest in more than seven months on May 25, a day after the government announced 6.25 billion pounds ($9.1 billion) of spending cuts for 2010. Fidelity International, Loomis Sayles & Co. and investors overseeing more than $1 trillion say Cameron, 43, will reduce the biggest deficit among the Group of Seven nations and avoid a downgrade of the U.K’s AAA credit rating. The coalition said it designed the cuts to send a “shockwave” through state departments and promised a “comprehensive and credible” plan to tackle the 156 billion-pound shortfall. “The market is inclined to give the new coalition government the benefit of the doubt and see what the spending cuts look like,” said David Rolley , who helps oversee $106 billion as co-head of global fixed-income in Boston at Loomis Sayles. “There is local institutional bid for long-dated government paper, and that’s pretty useful.” Financial Shock Investors demanded 90 basis points in extra yield to hold U.K. 10-year bonds rather than German bunds as of May 28, narrowing from a four-and-a-half-year high of 103 basis points, or 1.03 percentage points, on May 7. The 10-year gilt yielded 3.57 percent at the close of trading on May 28, after reaching a low of 3.45 percent on May 25. British securities returned 4.4 percent in 2010, beating the 3.9 percent gain for Treasuries and trailing the 6.4 percent return for bunds, according to the Merrill Lynch indexes. “The very first decision the government has made is to bring down the deficit and that’s good news,” said Axel Botte , a strategist at AXA Investment Managers in Paris who helps oversee about 500 billion euros ($615 billion). “It’s taken out some of the risk premium and after that vote of confidence, gilts are well placed compared to U.S. Treasuries and bunds.” European nations are under pressure from investors to cut debt after Greece’s budget deficit soared to 13.6 percent of gross domestic product last year, precipitating the biggest shock to world markets since the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Merkel’s Share Europe’s leaders pieced together a rescue package of almost $1 trillion amid speculation the euro area may break up. The extra fiscal obligations that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is taking on are making bunds riskier to investors relative to gilts. German lawmakers agreed to contribute as much as 148 billion euros to indebted European states. Germany’s auction last week of five-year notes drew the lowest demand since March 2008. Investors bid for 6.1 billion euros of 5.45 billion euros of securities sold, a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.1, the least since the sale of similar securities on March 26, 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The government originally planned to sell 7 billion euros. The Bundesbank was forced to retain 22 percent of the offer. ‘Avoid’ Bunds “Yields have to go higher,” Michael Markovic , a senior fixed-income strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG in Zurich, said May 27 in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Our advice to clients is really to avoid this intermediate-to-longer segment of the German yield curve.” In the U.S., President Barack Obama is banking on measures to stimulate job growth and the economy to reduce the deficit. The White House budget office projects a record $1.55 trillion gap in the year ending Sept. 30, up almost 10 percent from last year’s $1.41 trillion. The U.K. budget gap is like a “bed of nitroglycerine,” Bill Gross , who runs the world’s biggest mutual fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said in January. He cited the nation’s debt load and the potential for currency devaluation as risks for bondholders. The coalition between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats “is a step in the right direction,” Michael Amey , Pimco’s executive vice president of U.K. fixed income, said in an interview on May 20. “But that’s just the first of a number of steps that one will need to see before gaining comfort on a longer-term outlook for the gilt market.” Schroders Is ‘Cautious’ Schroders Plc’s David Scammell said he is “cautious” on gilts because of the size of the government’s task. David Laws , the new government’s chief secretary at the Treasury until he resigned during the weekend following revelations about his parliamentary expenses, said he found a note from his predecessor, Liam Byrne , that said: “I’m afraid to tell you there’s no money left.” “If they can’t do something that is deemed to be credible, we are in danger of higher yields and a downgrade,” said Scammell, a money manager at Schroders in London, which oversees about $223 billion of assets. “At the moment the U.K. is in the good-market camp. But it’s right on the edge.” Cameron’s challenge is to maintain growth in a nation whose debt will rise to 77 percent of GDP this year and may approach 100 percent by 2014, according to Standard & Poor’s. The rating company affirmed its “negative” outlook on the U.K.’s AAA grade on March 29 “in the absence of a strong fiscal consolidation plan.” Investec Turns Bullish The U.K. prime minister promised to accelerate deficit reductions. A newly-created Office of Budget Responsibility, headed by former Treasury adviser Alan Budd , will produce new forecasts before a June 22 emergency budget. “The situation in the U.K. is salvageable,” said John Stopford , co-head of global fixed income in London for Investec Asset Management Ltd., which oversees about $65 billion. Stopford has an “overweight” position in the bonds after changing from “underweight.” That means his funds now hold a greater percentage of gilts than in the benchmark indexes he uses to measure performance. Britain’s ruling parties said May 20 they are united over the need for swift action to reduce the record shortfall. “I fully support the efforts of the chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne , to deal with this problem urgently,” Liberal Democrat Business Secretary Vince Cable told reporters in London as the new government presented its policy program. Shared Program Osborne, a Conservative, said deficit reduction “takes precedence, and that’s very, very important.” The program commits the coalition to cutting the deficit at a faster pace than planned by the Labour government, he said. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said May 12 he backs the bid to start cuts this year. For Standard Life Investments, the outlook for gilts has improved since before the election, when investors speculated a so-called hung parliament with no outright winner would lead to a minority government too weak to tackle the deficit. “The market has given them a bit of a thumbs up,” said Richard Batty , a global investment strategist in Edinburgh who helps to oversee Standard Life’s $175 billion. “It seems the government can work more effectively on its fiscal plan than we thought it could a few months ago.” Cameron, who called Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg a “joke” before the election, made deficit reduction a focus of his manifesto. Cable, who spoke for the Liberal Democrats on financial matters before the May 6 poll, said in April rising unemployment exposed the “folly of Tory plans to pull the rug from under the recovery” with early spending cuts. Losing ‘Patience’ Any sign of a disagreement between the two parties over the deficit strategy may send bond yields soaring, according to Ignis Asset Management. “The market could lose patience very quickly if it is disappointed by their efforts,” said Russ Oxley , head of rates in Glasgow at Ignis, which has about $100 billion of assets. “A market crisis would precipitate a downgrade.” Concern that the U.K.’s rating will be lowered is premature, said Ian Fishwick , a money manager who oversees about $3.5 billion at Fidelity International, the London-based affiliate of Fidelity Investments, the world’s biggest mutual-fund company. “The U.K. does have sufficient flexibility to deal with these problems and so long as it’s evident that they are moving in the right direction, I think the rating agencies will give the U.K. time,” he said. “The key thing that this government is going to do differently from the old government is to start tackling the deficit more quickly.” To contact the reporter on this story: Paul Dobson in London at pdobson2@bloomberg.net ; Anchalee Worrachate in London at aworrachate@bloomberg.net .

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Israeli Raid on Ship Adds to Pressure for Easing Gaza Controls

May 31, 2010

By Jonathan Ferziger and Calev Ben-David June 1 (Bloomberg) — Israel’s raid on a flotilla of ships bringing aid to the Gaza Strip, which left nine dead, has increased pressure for an end to the country’s control of the coastal enclave’s borders. British Foreign Secretary William Hague yesterday issued a statement calling on Israel to “allow unfettered access” to Gaza, while European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton urged the “unconditional opening of crossings” into Gaza. Israel, which is facing international criticism over the boat deaths, says it needs to control Gaza’s borders or else Hamas will smuggle in material to make rockets and attack its territory. Palestinians, backed by the United Nations and human rights groups, say the restrictions on food imports and construction materials have created a humanitarian crisis. Blockading Gaza “is turning into a human rights and public relations disaster” for Israel, said Martin Indyk , director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington and a former U.S. ambassador to Israel. “Israel needs to find a better way.” Israel said its soldiers were attacked with knives and clubs after boarding a vessel and seven soldiers were wounded, including by gunfire after activists aboard the ship managed to grab Israeli firearms. The clash was in international waters, said the Free Gaza Movement, which organized the flotilla. ‘Freedom Flotilla’ The six ships in the “Freedom Flotilla” came from Sweden, Greece and Turkey on a mission aimed at breaking Israel’s blockade of Gaza that organizers pledged would be nonviolent. Israel had warned it wouldn’t let the ships reach Gaza and called the mission a propaganda trick aimed at making it look bad. Several of the dead were from Turkey, which said relations with Israel may suffer irreparable harm. Israel committed “murder” and violated international law when it intercepted the ships, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council. French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Israel had used “disproportionate” force. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she had spoken by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and called for “a comprehensive investigation.” Netanyahu cut short a trip to Canada to return to Israel, canceling a meeting scheduled in Washington with President Barack Obama . ‘Hamas Terrorist Base’ “Gaza has become a Hamas terrorist base, backed by Iran, firing thousands of rockets at Israel, and has amassed tens of thousands more to fire at our cities, our towns, our children,” Netanyahu said yesterday during a visit to Ottawa. “Our policy is this: We try to let all humanitarian goods into Gaza after they have undergone our security checks.” Obama expressed “deep regret at the loss of life” and said it was important to learn “all the facts and circumstances around this morning’s tragic events as soon as possible,” according to a statement from the White House. Israeli stocks fell the most in four days. The benchmark TA-25 Index lost 1.6 percent, the biggest drop since May 25, to 1,082.74 at the close in Tel Aviv. The shekel fell as much as 1.5 percent to 3.8729 to the dollar and traded at 3.8652 at 5:14 p.m. yesterday. Aboard the ships were more than 500 people, including European members of parliament and Swedish author Henning Mankell , according to the Free Gaza Movement. Israeli Navy ships have intercepted three previous efforts by the Free Gaza Movement, formed in 2008 to deliver aid to the territory by sea. Attacked With Knives An Israeli military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters that soldiers boarded the ships after approaching on three military helicopters and several commando boats at about 4 a.m., according to a pool report provided by the Associated Press. One of the commandos, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said after descending from one of the helicopters on a rope, he was immediately attacked by a group of passengers with metal sticks and knives, the pool report said. The commando said activists grabbed soldiers, stripped them of their helmets and equipment, and threw them from the top deck to the lower deck, the report said. Saeb Erakat , the Palestinian Authority’s chief peace negotiator, called the incident a “war crime” and said the international community must take “swift and appropriate action.” Three-Week War Israel has restricted entry of people and goods into Gaza since the territory was taken over by Hamas in 2007, allowing in a limited range of supplies including food, clothing and medicine. Hamas is considered a terrorist organization by Israel, the U.S. and the European Union. Israel fought a three-week war in Gaza starting in December 2008 that it said was meant to stop Hamas and other militant groups from firing rockets into its territory. Some 330 rockets have been fired from Gaza into Israel since the end of the operation, killing one foreign worker last March, the army said. Israeli bombing and ground operations during the war destroyed thousands of houses across Gaza, and Israel’s restrictions on construction materials have prevented Palestinians from being able to rebuild. The army says Hamas has used materials such as cement and iron pipes to build rockets and bunkers. “The area is ruled by Hamas, a terror organization that is arming itself all the time with weaponry and rockets intended to hurt Israel,” Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said at a news conference yesterday in Tel Aviv. Indyk said one way Israel could solve its “dilemma” was a “cease-fire deal in which Hamas commits to preventing violent attacks from Gaza and stopping all smuggling into Gaza in return for Israel opening the passages with international monitors.” To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan Ferziger in Tel Aviv at jferziger@bloomberg.net ; Calev Ben-David in Jerusalem at cbendavid@bloomberg.net

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Israeli Raid on Gaza Aid Ship Increases Pressure to Relax Border Controls

May 31, 2010

By Jonathan Ferziger and Calev Ben-David June 1 (Bloomberg) — Israel’s raid on a flotilla of ships bringing aid to the Gaza Strip, which left nine dead, has increased pressure for an end to the country’s control of the coastal enclave’s borders. British Foreign Secretary William Hague yesterday issued a statement calling on Israel to “allow unfettered access” to Gaza, while European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton urged the “unconditional opening of crossings” into Gaza. Israel, which is facing international criticism over the boat deaths, says it needs to control Gaza’s borders or else Hamas will smuggle in material to make rockets and attack its territory. Palestinians, backed by the United Nations and human rights groups, say the restrictions on food imports and construction materials have created a humanitarian crisis. Blockading Gaza “is turning into a human rights and public relations disaster” for Israel, said Martin Indyk , director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington and a former U.S. ambassador to Israel. “Israel needs to find a better way.” Israel said its soldiers were attacked with knives and clubs after boarding a vessel and seven soldiers were wounded, including by gunfire after activists aboard the ship managed to grab Israeli firearms. The clash was in international waters, said the Free Gaza Movement, which organized the flotilla. ‘Freedom Flotilla’ The six ships in the “Freedom Flotilla” came from Sweden, Greece and Turkey on a mission aimed at breaking Israel’s blockade of Gaza that organizers pledged would be nonviolent. Israel had warned it wouldn’t let the ships reach Gaza and called the mission a propaganda trick aimed at making it look bad. Several of the dead were from Turkey, which said relations with Israel may suffer irreparable harm. Israel committed “murder” and violated international law when it intercepted the ships, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council. French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Israel had used “disproportionate” force. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she had spoken by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and called for “a comprehensive investigation.” Netanyahu cut short a trip to Canada to return to Israel, canceling a meeting scheduled in Washington with President Barack Obama . ‘Hamas Terrorist Base’ “Gaza has become a Hamas terrorist base, backed by Iran, firing thousands of rockets at Israel, and has amassed tens of thousands more to fire at our cities, our towns, our children,” Netanyahu said yesterday during a visit to Ottawa. “Our policy is this: We try to let all humanitarian goods into Gaza after they have undergone our security checks.” Obama expressed “deep regret at the loss of life” and said it was important to learn “all the facts and circumstances around this morning’s tragic events as soon as possible,” according to a statement from the White House. Israeli stocks fell the most in four days. The benchmark TA-25 Index lost 1.6 percent, the biggest drop since May 25, to 1,082.74 at the close in Tel Aviv. The shekel fell as much as 1.5 percent to 3.8729 to the dollar and traded at 3.8652 at 5:14 p.m. yesterday. Aboard the ships were more than 500 people, including European members of parliament and Swedish author Henning Mankell , according to the Free Gaza Movement. Israeli Navy ships have intercepted three previous efforts by the Free Gaza Movement, formed in 2008 to deliver aid to the territory by sea. Attacked With Knives An Israeli military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters that soldiers boarded the ships after approaching on three military helicopters and several commando boats at about 4 a.m., according to a pool report provided by the Associated Press. One of the commandos, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said after descending from one of the helicopters on a rope, he was immediately attacked by a group of passengers with metal sticks and knives, the pool report said. The commando said activists grabbed soldiers, stripped them of their helmets and equipment, and threw them from the top deck to the lower deck, the report said. Saeb Erakat , the Palestinian Authority’s chief peace negotiator, called the incident a “war crime” and said the international community must take “swift and appropriate action.” Three-Week War Israel has restricted entry of people and goods into Gaza since the territory was taken over by Hamas in 2007, allowing in a limited range of supplies including food, clothing and medicine. Hamas is considered a terrorist organization by Israel, the U.S. and the European Union. Israel fought a three-week war in Gaza starting in December 2008 that it said was meant to stop Hamas and other militant groups from firing rockets into its territory. Some 330 rockets have been fired from Gaza into Israel since the end of the operation, killing one foreign worker last March, the army said. Israeli bombing and ground operations during the war destroyed thousands of houses across Gaza, and Israel’s restrictions on construction materials have prevented Palestinians from being able to rebuild. The army says Hamas has used materials such as cement and iron pipes to build rockets and bunkers. “The area is ruled by Hamas, a terror organization that is arming itself all the time with weaponry and rockets intended to hurt Israel,” Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said at a news conference yesterday in Tel Aviv. Indyk said one way Israel could solve its “dilemma” was a “cease-fire deal in which Hamas commits to preventing violent attacks from Gaza and stopping all smuggling into Gaza in return for Israel opening the passages with international monitors.” To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan Ferziger in Tel Aviv at jferziger@bloomberg.net ; Calev Ben-David in Jerusalem at cbendavid@bloomberg.net

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Israel Intercepts Gaza-bound Aid Ships, Killing 9

May 31, 2010

By Jonathan Ferziger and Calev Ben-David May 31 (Bloomberg) — Israeli commandos killed nine pro- Palestinian activists after encountering resistance while intercepting a flotilla of ships carrying humanitarian aid supplies to the Gaza Strip, the Israeli army said. Several of the dead were from Turkey, which said relations with Israel may suffer irreparable harm. French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Israel had used “disproportionate” force. German Chancellor Angela Merkel , speaking today to reporters in Berlin, said she had spoken by phone with Netanyahu and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and called for “a comprehensive investigation on what happened.” The six ships in the “Freedom Flotilla” came from Sweden, Greece and Turkey on a mission aimed at breaking Israel’s blockade of Gaza that organizers pledged would be non-violent. Israel had warned it wouldn’t let the ships reach Gaza and called the mission a propaganda trick aimed at making it look bad. Israel said its soldiers were attacked with knives and clubs after boarding a vessel and seven soldiers were wounded, including by gunfire after activists aboard the ship managed to grab Israeli firearms. The clash was in international waters, said the Free Gaza Movement, which organized the flotilla. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cut short a trip to Canada to return to Israel, canceling a meeting scheduled in Washington tomorrow with President Barack Obama . Emergency Meeting “What we have seen this morning is a war crime,” Saeb Erakat , the Palestinian Authority’s chief peace negotiator, said in an e-mailed statement. “The international community must take swift and appropriate action.” The United Nations Security Council will hold an emergency meeting at 1 p.m. New York time on the situation, the UN press office said. Israeli stocks fell the most in four days. The benchmark TA-25 Index lost 1.6 percent, the biggest drop since May 25, to 1,082.74 at the close in Tel Aviv. The shekel fell as much as 1.5 percent to 3.8729 to the dollar and traded at 3.8652 at 5:14 p.m. Aboard the ships today were more than 500 people, including European members of parliament and Swedish author Henning Mankell, according to the Free Gaza Movement, which organized the trip. Mary Hughes Thompson, a spokeswoman of the Free Gaza Movement, said the organization “never dreamed that Israel would ever use this type of violence.” Gaza Restrictions “The United States deeply regrets the loss of life and injuries sustained, and is currently working to understand the circumstances surrounding this tragedy,” White House spokesman Bill Burton said. Israel has restricted entry of people and goods into Gaza since the territory was taken over by Hamas in 2007, allowing in a limited range of supplies including food, clothing and medicine. Hamas is considered a terrorist organization by Israel, the U.S. and the European Union. Israeli Navy ships have intercepted three previous efforts by the Free Gaza Movement, formed in 2008 to deliver aid to the territory by sea. “Hamas is continually trying to smuggle weapons into Gaza by land and sea, which is why we told the flotilla organizers we would be willing to bring their aid into Gaza after we did a security check of their shipments,” Capt. Barak Raz of the Israeli Army Spokesman’s Office said. Rockets Israel fought a three-week war in Gaza starting in December 2008 that it said was meant to stop Hamas and other militant groups from firing rockets into its territory. Some 330 rockets have been fired from Gaza into Israel since the end of the operation, killing one foreign worker last March, the army said. Israeli bombing and ground operations during the war destroyed thousands of houses across Gaza and Israel’s restrictions on construction materials have prevented Palestinians from being able to rebuild. The army has said that Hamas has used materials such as cement and iron pipes to build rockets and bunkers. Israel has been negotiating a prisoner swap with Hamas to exchange a captive Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit , for about 1,000 jailed Palestinians. “We are sorry about those hurt, but the responsibility lies completely with the organizers of the flotilla and those participants who initiated the violence,” Defense Minister Ehud Barak said at a press conference in Tel Aviv. “During the incident, because of danger to their lives, the soldiers were forced to use methods to disperse demonstrations as well as firearms.” He said some of the flotilla organizers had ties to terrorist organizations. ‘Inhuman’ Raid Turkey’s Foreign Ministry called the raid “inhuman” and said it “may cause damage to our relations that will be impossible to repair,” according to a statement e-mailed by the ministry in Ankara today. Hamas called on the Palestinian Authority to break off peace talks with Israel. An Israeli military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters that most of the nine dead were Turkish and 20 people were wounded, according to a pool report provided by an Associated Press reporter. Of the soldiers wounded, one was hurt seriously. The official said the soldiers boarded the ships after approaching on three military helicopters and several commando boats at about 4 a.m., according to the pool report. ‘Unfettered Access’ One of the commandos, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said after descending from one of the helicopters on a rope, he was immediately attacked by a group of passengers with metal sticks and knives, the pool report said. The commando said activists grabbed soldiers, stripped them of their helmets and equipment, and threw them from the top deck to the lower deck, the report said. Turkey’s NTV television showed footage of helicopters dropping armed soldiers onto a ship in the dark, and of bloodied passengers being treated on board. A passenger said the ships were attacked with live ammunition and tear gas. U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague said he deplored “the loss of life during the interception of the Gaza flotilla” and called on Israel to give “unfettered access” for aid to Gaza. To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan Ferziger in Tel Aviv at jferziger@bloomberg.net Calev Ben-David in Jerusalem at cbendavid@bloomberg.net

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Israel Intercepts Gaza-bound Aid Ships, Killing 9

May 31, 2010

By Jonathan Ferziger and Calev Ben-David May 31 (Bloomberg) — Israeli commandos killed nine pro- Palestinian activists after encountering resistance while intercepting a flotilla of ships carrying humanitarian aid supplies to the Gaza Strip, the Israeli army said. Several of the dead were from Turkey, which said relations with Israel may suffer irreparable harm. French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Israel had used “disproportionate” force. German Chancellor Angela Merkel , speaking today to reporters in Berlin, said she had spoken by phone with Netanyahu and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and called for “a comprehensive investigation on what happened.” The six ships in the “Freedom Flotilla” came from Sweden, Greece and Turkey on a mission aimed at breaking Israel’s blockade of Gaza that organizers pledged would be non-violent. Israel had warned it wouldn’t let the ships reach Gaza and called the mission a propaganda trick aimed at making it look bad. Israel said its soldiers were attacked with knives and clubs after boarding a vessel and seven soldiers were wounded, including by gunfire after activists aboard the ship managed to grab Israeli firearms. The clash was in international waters, said the Free Gaza Movement, which organized the flotilla. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cut short a trip to Canada to return to Israel, canceling a meeting scheduled in Washington tomorrow with President Barack Obama . Emergency Meeting “What we have seen this morning is a war crime,” Saeb Erakat , the Palestinian Authority’s chief peace negotiator, said in an e-mailed statement. “The international community must take swift and appropriate action.” The United Nations Security Council will hold an emergency meeting at 1 p.m. New York time on the situation, the UN press office said. Israeli stocks fell the most in four days. The benchmark TA-25 Index lost 1.6 percent, the biggest drop since May 25, to 1,082.74 at the close in Tel Aviv. The shekel fell as much as 1.5 percent to 3.8729 to the dollar and traded at 3.8652 at 5:14 p.m. Aboard the ships today were more than 500 people, including European members of parliament and Swedish author Henning Mankell, according to the Free Gaza Movement, which organized the trip. Mary Hughes Thompson, a spokeswoman of the Free Gaza Movement, said the organization “never dreamed that Israel would ever use this type of violence.” Gaza Restrictions “The United States deeply regrets the loss of life and injuries sustained, and is currently working to understand the circumstances surrounding this tragedy,” White House spokesman Bill Burton said. Israel has restricted entry of people and goods into Gaza since the territory was taken over by Hamas in 2007, allowing in a limited range of supplies including food, clothing and medicine. Hamas is considered a terrorist organization by Israel, the U.S. and the European Union. Israeli Navy ships have intercepted three previous efforts by the Free Gaza Movement, formed in 2008 to deliver aid to the territory by sea. “Hamas is continually trying to smuggle weapons into Gaza by land and sea, which is why we told the flotilla organizers we would be willing to bring their aid into Gaza after we did a security check of their shipments,” Capt. Barak Raz of the Israeli Army Spokesman’s Office said. Rockets Israel fought a three-week war in Gaza starting in December 2008 that it said was meant to stop Hamas and other militant groups from firing rockets into its territory. Some 330 rockets have been fired from Gaza into Israel since the end of the operation, killing one foreign worker last March, the army said. Israeli bombing and ground operations during the war destroyed thousands of houses across Gaza and Israel’s restrictions on construction materials have prevented Palestinians from being able to rebuild. The army has said that Hamas has used materials such as cement and iron pipes to build rockets and bunkers. Israel has been negotiating a prisoner swap with Hamas to exchange a captive Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit , for about 1,000 jailed Palestinians. “We are sorry about those hurt, but the responsibility lies completely with the organizers of the flotilla and those participants who initiated the violence,” Defense Minister Ehud Barak said at a press conference in Tel Aviv. “During the incident, because of danger to their lives, the soldiers were forced to use methods to disperse demonstrations as well as firearms.” He said some of the flotilla organizers had ties to terrorist organizations. ‘Inhuman’ Raid Turkey’s Foreign Ministry called the raid “inhuman” and said it “may cause damage to our relations that will be impossible to repair,” according to a statement e-mailed by the ministry in Ankara today. Hamas called on the Palestinian Authority to break off peace talks with Israel. An Israeli military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters that most of the nine dead were Turkish and 20 people were wounded, according to a pool report provided by an Associated Press reporter. Of the soldiers wounded, one was hurt seriously. The official said the soldiers boarded the ships after approaching on three military helicopters and several commando boats at about 4 a.m., according to the pool report. ‘Unfettered Access’ One of the commandos, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said after descending from one of the helicopters on a rope, he was immediately attacked by a group of passengers with metal sticks and knives, the pool report said. The commando said activists grabbed soldiers, stripped them of their helmets and equipment, and threw them from the top deck to the lower deck, the report said. Turkey’s NTV television showed footage of helicopters dropping armed soldiers onto a ship in the dark, and of bloodied passengers being treated on board. A passenger said the ships were attacked with live ammunition and tear gas. U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague said he deplored “the loss of life during the interception of the Gaza flotilla” and called on Israel to give “unfettered access” for aid to Gaza. To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan Ferziger in Tel Aviv at jferziger@bloomberg.net Calev Ben-David in Jerusalem at cbendavid@bloomberg.net

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German President Koehler Unexpectedly Quits After Criticism on Afghanistan

May 31, 2010

By Patrick Donahue and Brian Parkin May 31 (Bloomberg) — German President Horst Koehler unexpectedly announced his resignation with immediate effect, citing public criticism of remarks he made about Germany’s military mission in Afghanistan. Koehler, a former managing director of the International Monetary Fund, becomes the first German head of state to quit in post-World War II history. He suggested in a May 22 radio interview that military engagement is necessary to protect Germany’s economic interests, prompting calls by opposition lawmakers for him to withdraw his remarks. “I regret that my comments could lead to misunderstanding for a question that’s important and difficult for our nation,” Koehler said as he announced his resignation in Berlin today. The criticism “lacks any foundation” because it “goes so far as to accuse me of favoring military operations” not covered by Germany’s constitution. “It undermines the necessary respect for my office.” While Koehler’s role is mainly ceremonial, his decision to quit adds to pressure on Chancellor Angela Merkel as support for her coalition plunges over her efforts to stem Europe’s debt crisis and backstop the euro. Roland Koch , a deputy leader of Merkel’s Christian Democrats, unexpectedly announced his decision to quit as prime minister of Hesse state six days ago. ‘Deep Fissures’ Koehler’s resignation “is a huge blow to Merkel, sending a signal of national disunity at home and abroad,” Jochen Staadt, a politics professor at Berlin’s Free University, said in a phone interview. “Koehler has thrown off his responsibility as head of state at a critical moment. Such a step shows how deep fissures are in Germany’s political caste.” Merkel canceled a planned visit to the German national soccer team’s training camp in northern Italy following the announcement. She had been due to inspect the team’s preparations for next month’s World Cup in South Africa, her first engagement after welcoming Germany’s win in the Eurovision song contest by Lena Meyer-Landrut . Koehler called Merkel to inform her of his decision at noon and announced his resignation two hours later, she told reporters. “I was of course surprised by this phone conversation and attempted to change his mind,” Merkel said. “This was unfortunately not successful. I very deeply regret this decision but of course told him that I respect it.” Special Assembly Koehler, 67, a member of Merkel’s Christian Democrats who suspended his party membership to run for office, was re-elected to a second four-year term only in May last year after backing from the Christian Democrats and the Free Democrats led by Guido Westerwelle , now foreign minister. Koehler defeated the Social Democratic candidate Gesine Schwan by 613 votes to 503 votes at a special assembly of lawmakers and state delegates. Merkel said at the time that Kohler is “exactly the right president we need during these times of crisis.” His duties, which include signing bills into law after they clear both houses of parliament, will now be transferred to Jens Boehrnsen , current head of the upper house and mayor of the city of Bremen, pending a presidential election next month by the special assembly, the president’s office said in a statement. Koehler, in the interview with Deutschlandradio, said an export-oriented country like Germany “must also understand that in certain cases, in an emergency, military operations are necessary to protect our interests.” He cited as examples maintaining free trade routes and settling regional instability that could have a “negative” impact on Germany’s “trade, jobs and income .” ‘Dangerously Wrong’ While Koehler later pushed back on his initial comments, saying he referred more specifically to the anti-piracy mission off the Horn of Africa rather than Afghanistan, Merkel’s government was forced to field questions on his remarks at a regular press briefing on May 28. The president’s comments “expose a dangerously wrong understanding of missions abroad,” Frithjof Schmidt, a lawmaker from the opposition Green Party, said in a statement the same day. “He should correct his statements as quickly as possible.” Waning support for Koehler was highlighted when Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine in this week’s edition dubbed the president “Horst Luebke,” alluding to Heinrich Luebke, Germany’s second postwar president who stepped down in 1969. Luebke was widely recognized as a poor public speaker and a frequent target of ridicule, especially toward the end of his term when his failing health started to affect his memory, Spiegel said. Koehler “has apparently got a very thin skin,” Hugo Mueller-Vogg, who published a biography of the president in 2005, said on N24 television. “He really thought he could change something in this country. But then he realized that his office is largely ceremonial.” To contact the reporters on this story: Brian Parkin in Berlin at bparkin@bloomberg.net ; Patrick Donahue at pdonahue1@bloomberg.net

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German President Horst Koehler to Quit Following Comments on Afghanistan

May 31, 2010

By Patrick Donahue and Brian Parkin May 31 (Bloomberg) — German President Horst Koehler unexpectedly announced his resignation with immediate effect, citing public criticism of remarks he made about Germany’s military mission in Afghanistan. Koehler, a former director general of the International Monetary Fund, becomes the first German head of state to quit in post-World War II history. He suggested in a May 22 radio interview that military engagement is necessary to protect Germany’s economic interests, prompting opposition lawmaker calls for him to withdraw his remarks. Announcing his resignation in Berlin today, Koehler told reporters that the criticism “lacks any foundation” and “undermines the necessary respect for my office.” While Koehler’s role as head of state is mainly ceremonial, his decision to quit adds to pressure on Chancellor Angela Merkel as support for her coalition plunges over her efforts to stem Europe’s debt crisis and backstop the euro. Roland Koch , a deputy leader of Merkel’s Christian Democrats, unexpectedly announced his decision to quit as prime minister of Hesse state six days ago. ‘Deep Fissures’ Koehler’s resignation “is a huge blow to Merkel, sending a signal of national disunity at home and abroad,” Jochen Staadt, a politics professor at Berlin’s Free University, said in a phone interview. “Koehler has thrown off his responsibility as head of state at a critical moment. Such a step shows how deep fissures are in Germany’s political caste.” Koehler, 67, a former member of Merkel’s Christian Democrats who suspended his party membership to run for office, was re-elected to a second term in May last year after backing from the Christian Democrats and the Free Democrats led by Guido Westerwelle , now foreign minister. Koehler defeated the Social Democratic candidate Gesine Schwan by 613 votes to 503 votes. His duties, which include signing bills into law after they clear both houses of parliament, will now be transferred to Jens Boehrnsen , current head of the upper house of parliament and mayor of the city of Bremen, pending a presidential election next month, the president’s office said in a statement. Koehler, in the interview with Deutschlandradio, said an export-oriented country like Germany “must also understand that in certain cases, in an emergency, military operations are necessary to protect our interests.” He cited as examples maintaining free trade routes and settling regional instability that could have a “negative” impact on Germany’s “trade, jobs and income.” ‘Dangerously Wrong’ While Koehler later pushed back on his initial comments, saying he referred more specifically to the anti-piracy mission off the Horn of Africa rather than Afghanistan, Merkel’s government was forced to field questions on his remarks at a regular press briefing on May 28. The president’s interview comments “expose a dangerously wrong understanding of missions abroad,” Frithjof Schmidt, a lawmaker from the opposition Green Party, said in a statement the same day. “He should correct his statements as quickly as possible.” Waning support for Koehler was highlighted when Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine in this week’s edition dubbed the president “Horst Luebke,” alluding to Heinrich Luebke, Germany’s second postwar president who stepped down in 1969. Luebke was widely recognized as a poor public speaker and a frequently target of ridicule, especially toward the end of his term when his failing health started to affect his memory, Spiegel said. Koehler “has apparently got a very thin skin,” Hugo Mueller-Vogg, who published the president’s biography in 2005, said on N24 television. “He really thought he could change something in this country. But then he realized that his office is mainly ceremonial.” To contact the reporters on this story: Brian Parkin in Berlin at bparkin@bloomberg.net ; Patrick Donahue at pdonahue1@bloomberg.net

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Germany’s Unilateral Short-Selling Ban Drops `Bomb’ on Regulators, Lawyers

May 25, 2010

By Karin Matussek May 25 (Bloomberg) — Germany’s unilateral move to curb speculative trading of government bonds and some naked short selling last week forced lawyers to work long hours to interpret rules enacted with less than a day’s notice. The nation’s financial regulator, BaFin, has been posting guidance about the rules online, while lawyers toiled over what countries the rules apply in, what constitutes a “naked” deal and whether the ban covers derivatives. “The situation has been tough for all of us, lawyers and regulators alike,” said Jochen Kindermann , a capital markets lawyer at Simmons & Simmons in Frankfurt. “The step was dropped on us like a bomb and no one really had any time to prepare.” Germany was criticized for banning naked short selling of debt securities as well as naked credit-default swaps last week. BaFin published the ban late in the evening of May 18 and the rules took effect less than four hours later. Stocks around the world fell and Germany’s benchmark DAX Index has dropped more than 8 percent since the ban was announced. Germany’s Finance Ministry proposed legislation that would extend the ban to all German stocks and certain euro currency derivatives. The plan would ban naked short selling in stocks off all German companies listed on a domestic exchange, the ministry said in draft legislation distributed to banks and industry groups today. Not ‘Ideal Situation’ The International Swaps & Derivatives Association set up a conference call less than 20 hours after the BaFin ban was announced last week and 700 people from the finance industry dialed in, Okko Behrends, a capital markets lawyer at Allen & Overy LLP, said in an interview. It was the first time he had to advise on rules that were less than a day old, he said. “It certainly wasn’t an ideal situation, because we were still discussing with Bafin what exactly the rules mean,” Behrends said. “Some of them are unprecedented and there is still a bit of uncertainly how far they reach.” The confusion extends to regulators. The U.K. Financial Services Authority said the ban doesn’t cover branches of German institutions outside Germany or in Britain. BaFin spokeswoman Anja Engelland said May 19 the ban on short selling of some financial shares and bonds applies outside Germany, while credit-default swap transactions are only covered when the deal is done within German borders. ‘BaFin’s Task’ The FSA comment was based on the information the U.K. regulator had when BaFin made its announcement, FSA spokesman Joseph Eyre said. “It’s BaFin’s task to clear the exact details of its rules and you have to contact them for that,” he said. Lawyers also had difficulties defining what bonds are covered by the ban. The rules say they cover debt securities admitted for trading on the regulated market of a German exchange, mainly German and Austrian bonds. Because of a little known clause in Germany’s stock exchange act, there was a risk other euro-zone government bonds could have been included, said Kindermann and Behrends. “We could clear with BaFin that they didn’t intend to include all the other countries’ debt,” Behrends said. “But you can see from that example how difficult it can be to draft rules — and to advise clients.” Short sellers borrow assets and sell them, betting the price will fall. They would buy them later and pocket the difference. In naked short-selling, traders never borrow the assets, so betting is unlimited. German stocks fell last week on concern that European government leaders lacked a common position on how to resolve the sovereign-debt crisis. The DAX index fell for a fifth straight day today, declining 2.82 percent to 5,642.18 at 2:49 p.m. in Frankfurt, the lowest since Feb. 26. Clients from the U.S., who were initially worried about the ban, concluded that it was a political move by Chancellor Angela Merkel that will have limited effects on their actions, said Andreas Lange, a banking lawyer at Mayer Brown LLP in Frankfurt. “When they understood the limits of the rules, they pretty much shrugged and said: ‘Oh, well, just another odd move by the Germans,’” Lange said. To contact the reporter on this story: Karin Matussek in Berlin at kmatussek@bloomberg.net

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Ian Bremmer: Have We Really Come To ‘The End Of The Free Market’?

May 24, 2010

When you write a book called The End of the Free Market , you can be pretty sure what the first question is going to be: “Do you really believe we’re seeing the end of the free market? Really?” Yes, I do. But there are two important caveats. Not everywhere and (hopefully!) not forever. We’re used to living in a world where we see corporations as the future of political and economic power. Remember the movie “Network”? Ned Beatty as Arthur Jensen standing in a darkened corporate boardroom and thundering at Peter Finch’s disturbed and cowering network news anchor Howard Beale: “There are no nations; there are no peoples. There are no Russians. There are no Arabs. There is no third world. There is no West… There is no America. There is no democracy. There is only IBM and ITT and AT&T and DuPont, Dow, Union Carbide and Exxon. Those are the nations of the world today.” How about Rollerball and Robocop, variations both on the idea that big corporations are drinking the rest of the world’s milkshake–and don’t mind killing people who get in their way? Here’s why you can put those fears aside and worry about something that’s actually happening: One – The free market’s largest, most successful experiment in history, the single European market, has hit some serious turbulence. The kind you experience when trying to land a plane during a hurricane. I think the pilots will get that plane down in one piece–especially since they can safely ignore the screaming passengers on the other side of the cockpit door a little longer. But there’s no guarantee. The latest rescue package may have cleared the plane for landing but there’s plenty of wind and rain between here and the runway. Things will get bumpier before they even out. Not a good advertisement for free market capitalism. Two – The elected leaders of nearly every free market state (with the exceptions of relatively small, well-governed commodity exporters Australia and Canada) are facing serious levels of anti-government public fury. US midterm elections look to take “throw the bums out” to a whole new level. (Bums of both parties.) Gordon Brown is already out, but the British public didn’t have enough confidence in opposition conservatives to give them a majority either. French President Sarkozy has low poll numbers. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s are even lower. Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama can’t even get a dinner reservation. At the moment, none of these leaders is any position to praise the enduring virtues of free markets. Three – After three decades of double digit growth and a strong rebound from the global market meltdown, China is looking pretty strong these days. It’s easy for Beijing to blame the West for the world’s setbacks–and to propose an alternative that, on the surface, appears to promise sustainable prosperity and political stability. China is using state-owned companies, privately owned national champions, and state-dominated investment funds to distort the performance of markets for political advantage. They’re doing this inside China and throughout the developing world, where those big, bad multinational corporations find themselves competing with Chinese and other companies armed with every financial and diplomatic advantage their governments can provide. The title of my book came from a meeting last spring with Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei. “Now that the free market has failed,” he asked me, “what do you think is the proper role for the state in the economy?” (Coincidentally, He Yafei was the official President Obama found himself negotiating with when Premier Wen Jiabao decided he didn’t want to make a deal on carbon emissions in Copenhagen.) I don’t agree with the premise of his question, and told him so. But I’m pretty confident that that isn’t going to undermine the confidence of his bosses in China’s state-driven model of capitalism. Next week, I’ll answer the question posed by the book’s subtitle: “Who wins the War Between States and Corporations?” Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia Group and author of The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations? (Portfolio, 2010)

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Osborne Says U.K. Government Plans to `Bring Confidence’ Back to Economy

May 24, 2010

By Kitty Donaldson and Robert Hutton May 24 (Bloomberg) — British Prime Minister David Cameron ’s two-week old coalition took its first steps toward curbing the record peacetime budget deficit by announcing 6.25 billion pounds ($9 billion) of spending cuts this year. “If we didn’t take action now, we would be putting the stability of the British economy in grave danger,” Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne told reporters in London today. Five hundred million pounds of cuts will be “recycled” and go back into the economy while “the great majority will go towards cutting the deficit this year” so the U.K. can avoid a planned increase in the National Insurance levy on incomes, he said. The move is designed to show investors the new government’s resolve on cutting a deficit that swelled to 11.1 percent of gross domestic product in the fiscal year that ended in March, the highest since the World War II. The U.K. needs to take “urgent action” to curb the shortfall, Osborne said. Osborne has pledged to reduce the bulk of the 156 billion- pound deficit over the next few years. Today’s cuts will be dwarfed by a spending review due later this year that will slash departmental budgets over the three years starting April 2011, threatening job losses across the public sector. Announcing reductions in central government spending, including 836 million pounds of savings at the business department, Chief Secretary to the Treasury David Laws said the action is designed to send a “shockwave” through ministries. “These are only the first steps we will need to take to put our public finances in order,” Laws said. “The years of public sector plenty are over.” To contact the reporters on this story: Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net ; Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net

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European Stocks Tumble as German Short-Sale Ban Fuels Debt Crisis Concerns

May 22, 2010

By Francesca Cinelli May 22 (Bloomberg) — European stocks fell on concern that European governments are divided on how to contain the region’s sovereign-debt crisis after Germany unilaterally banned some bets against government bonds and financial institutions. Stocks sensitive to economic growth including basic- resources and construction shares sank. Bank of Ireland Plc plummeted 21 percent after shareholders approved the sale of around 4 billion new shares. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 4.6 percent to 237.11 this week, the lowest level in more than six months, as all 19 industry groups dropped. The gauge entered a correction as it extended losses from this year’s high on April 15 to 13 percent. Investors withdrew some $12 billion from U.S. and European equity funds in the week to May 19, the most in almost two years, according to EPFR Global. “Fears that the debt crisis will cause a slowdown of the economy worldwide led to another downswing of the equity markets,” said Thomas Lusetti , a senior fund manager at Verwaltungs- & Privat Bank in Zurich, who helps manage about $36.3 billion. “Germany’s ban was an additional factor in increasing uncertainty.” Volatility Jumps The biggest decline in 13 months in U.S. stocks on May 20 pushed the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index below its average closing price during the previous 200 days for the first time since July 2009. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the benchmark gauge of U.S. stock options known as the VIX, jumped 30 percent to 45.79 the same day, the highest level since the financial crisis spurred by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The VStoxx Index , which measures the cost of protecting against declines in the Euro Stoxx 50 Index, rallied 8.4 percent this week, reaching a 15-month high of 49.87 on May 20. National benchmark indexes fell all 18 western European markets except Spain. Germany’s DAX lost 3.8 percent and France’s CAC 40 slid 3.6 percent, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 retreated 3.8 percent. Germany’s BaFin markets regulator banned investors from naked short sales — speculating on declines in companies they don’t own — for 10 banks and insurers, as well as naked credit- default swaps on euro-area government bonds starting May 19. German Chancellor Angela Merkel ’s government rattled investors by raising concerns they won’t be able to hedge their European holdings or sell assets as the region’s debt crisis worsens. The following day French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde told RTL radio that the 16 countries that share the euro need greater coordination of economic policies to avoid a financial crisis. Spanish GDP Spain approved the first public wage cuts since returning to democracy in 1978 and reduced its economic growth forecast for next year as the government tries to tame the euro region’s third-largest budget deficit. Gross domestic product will grow 1.3 percent in 2011, less than a previous projection for 1.8 percent, and the government said the deficit will narrow to 6 percent of GDP next year from 11.2 percent in 2009. Wages for government workers will drop 5 percent in June. In Germany, business confidence unexpectedly fell this month. The Ifo institute in Munich said its business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, eased to 101.5 from 101.6 in April. Economists expected an increase to 101.9, according to the median of 37 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Ifo’s gauge of executives’ expectations fell to 103.7 from 104. Mining Stocks Kazakhmys Plc . Kazakhstan’s biggest copper miner, led losses in the 30-member Bloomberg Europe Metals & Mining Index with a drop of 10 percent to 1,113 pence. Metal prices declined this week as the Conference Board’s index of U.S. leading economic indicators fell in April for the first time in a year. Separately, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research downgraded Kazakhmys to “underperform” from “buy.” Norsk Hydro ASA , Europe’s third-biggest aluminum maker, and Rio Tinto Group , the world’s third-biggest miner, fell 8 percent to 38.42 kroner and 9.4 percent to 2,909 pence, respectively. Petroleum Geo-Services ASA , the world’s third-biggest surveyor of oil and natural-gas fields, and Acergy SA , a U.K. provider of oil services, lost 10 percent to 67.4 kroner and 8.5 percent to 96.4 kroner, respectively, as crude oil dropped for a third week. Gulf Leak BP Plc , battling a leak in the Gulf of Mexico, fell 4.4 to 506.7 pence. The U.S. Interior Department should shut BP Plc’s Atlantis platform pending the completion of a safety investigation which began in March, Representative Raul Grijalva said on May 20. Bilfinger Berger AG , Germany’s second-biggest builder, sank 14 percent to 42.73 euros. Hochtief AG declined 9.2 percent to 53.42 euros after the German construction company reported a slower-than-expected order intake and cut the sales target for its Australian operations. Bank of Ireland plummeted 21 percent to 77.4 cents. The banks’ shareholders approved the sale of around 4 billion new shares on May 19. The lender is planning a 3-for-2 rights offer at a price of 55 euro cents per new unit of ordinary stock. GKN Plc , the U.K. maker of aircraft components for Airbus SAS, dropped 11 percent to 119.3 pence after BofA Merrill Lynch downgraded its recommendation on the shares to “underperform.” William Demant Holding A/S rose 4 percent to 395 kroner after the world’s second-biggest hearing-aid maker was raised to “strong buy” from “buy” at Swedbank. Mitchells & Butlers Plc rose 3.3 percent to 313.6 pence. The U.K. pub owner that had a board shakeup in January posted a fiscal first-half profit of 52 million pounds ($75.2 million) in the 28 weeks ended April 10, compared with a 6 million-pound loss in the year-earlier period. Telefonica SA surged 4.7 percent to 15.58 euros. A group formed by Spain’s largest phone company, Grupo Televisa SA and Megacable Holdings SAB became the only qualified bidder for an auction to operate unused fiber-optic lines in Mexico. To contact the reporter on this story: Francesca Cinelli in Milan at fcinelli@bloomberg.net .

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European Stocks Tumble as German Short-Sale Ban Fuels Debt Crisis Concerns

May 22, 2010

By Francesca Cinelli May 22 (Bloomberg) — European stocks fell on concern that European governments are divided on how to contain the region’s sovereign-debt crisis after Germany unilaterally banned some bets against government bonds and financial institutions. Stocks sensitive to economic growth including basic- resources and construction shares sank. Bank of Ireland Plc plummeted 21 percent after shareholders approved the sale of around 4 billion new shares. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 4.6 percent to 237.11 this week, the lowest level in more than six months, as all 19 industry groups dropped. The gauge entered a correction as it extended losses from this year’s high on April 15 to 13 percent. Investors withdrew some $12 billion from U.S. and European equity funds in the week to May 19, the most in almost two years, according to EPFR Global. “Fears that the debt crisis will cause a slowdown of the economy worldwide led to another downswing of the equity markets,” said Thomas Lusetti , a senior fund manager at Verwaltungs- & Privat Bank in Zurich, who helps manage about $36.3 billion. “Germany’s ban was an additional factor in increasing uncertainty.” Volatility Jumps The biggest decline in 13 months in U.S. stocks on May 20 pushed the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index below its average closing price during the previous 200 days for the first time since July 2009. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the benchmark gauge of U.S. stock options known as the VIX, jumped 30 percent to 45.79 the same day, the highest level since the financial crisis spurred by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The VStoxx Index , which measures the cost of protecting against declines in the Euro Stoxx 50 Index, rallied 8.4 percent this week, reaching a 15-month high of 49.87 on May 20. National benchmark indexes fell all 18 western European markets except Spain. Germany’s DAX lost 3.8 percent and France’s CAC 40 slid 3.6 percent, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 retreated 3.8 percent. Germany’s BaFin markets regulator banned investors from naked short sales — speculating on declines in companies they don’t own — for 10 banks and insurers, as well as naked credit- default swaps on euro-area government bonds starting May 19. German Chancellor Angela Merkel ’s government rattled investors by raising concerns they won’t be able to hedge their European holdings or sell assets as the region’s debt crisis worsens. The following day French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde told RTL radio that the 16 countries that share the euro need greater coordination of economic policies to avoid a financial crisis. Spanish GDP Spain approved the first public wage cuts since returning to democracy in 1978 and reduced its economic growth forecast for next year as the government tries to tame the euro region’s third-largest budget deficit. Gross domestic product will grow 1.3 percent in 2011, less than a previous projection for 1.8 percent, and the government said the deficit will narrow to 6 percent of GDP next year from 11.2 percent in 2009. Wages for government workers will drop 5 percent in June. In Germany, business confidence unexpectedly fell this month. The Ifo institute in Munich said its business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, eased to 101.5 from 101.6 in April. Economists expected an increase to 101.9, according to the median of 37 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Ifo’s gauge of executives’ expectations fell to 103.7 from 104. Mining Stocks Kazakhmys Plc . Kazakhstan’s biggest copper miner, led losses in the 30-member Bloomberg Europe Metals & Mining Index with a drop of 10 percent to 1,113 pence. Metal prices declined this week as the Conference Board’s index of U.S. leading economic indicators fell in April for the first time in a year. Separately, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research downgraded Kazakhmys to “underperform” from “buy.” Norsk Hydro ASA , Europe’s third-biggest aluminum maker, and Rio Tinto Group , the world’s third-biggest miner, fell 8 percent to 38.42 kroner and 9.4 percent to 2,909 pence, respectively. Petroleum Geo-Services ASA , the world’s third-biggest surveyor of oil and natural-gas fields, and Acergy SA , a U.K. provider of oil services, lost 10 percent to 67.4 kroner and 8.5 percent to 96.4 kroner, respectively, as crude oil dropped for a third week. Gulf Leak BP Plc , battling a leak in the Gulf of Mexico, fell 4.4 to 506.7 pence. The U.S. Interior Department should shut BP Plc’s Atlantis platform pending the completion of a safety investigation which began in March, Representative Raul Grijalva said on May 20. Bilfinger Berger AG , Germany’s second-biggest builder, sank 14 percent to 42.73 euros. Hochtief AG declined 9.2 percent to 53.42 euros after the German construction company reported a slower-than-expected order intake and cut the sales target for its Australian operations. Bank of Ireland plummeted 21 percent to 77.4 cents. The banks’ shareholders approved the sale of around 4 billion new shares on May 19. The lender is planning a 3-for-2 rights offer at a price of 55 euro cents per new unit of ordinary stock. GKN Plc , the U.K. maker of aircraft components for Airbus SAS, dropped 11 percent to 119.3 pence after BofA Merrill Lynch downgraded its recommendation on the shares to “underperform.” William Demant Holding A/S rose 4 percent to 395 kroner after the world’s second-biggest hearing-aid maker was raised to “strong buy” from “buy” at Swedbank. Mitchells & Butlers Plc rose 3.3 percent to 313.6 pence. The U.K. pub owner that had a board shakeup in January posted a fiscal first-half profit of 52 million pounds ($75.2 million) in the 28 weeks ended April 10, compared with a 6 million-pound loss in the year-earlier period. Telefonica SA surged 4.7 percent to 15.58 euros. A group formed by Spain’s largest phone company, Grupo Televisa SA and Megacable Holdings SAB became the only qualified bidder for an auction to operate unused fiber-optic lines in Mexico. To contact the reporter on this story: Francesca Cinelli in Milan at fcinelli@bloomberg.net .

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Germany’s Share of $1 Trillion Euro-Region Rescue Approved by Parliament

May 21, 2010

By Patrick Donahue and Tony Czuczka May 21 (Bloomberg) — German lawmakers approved their country’s share of a $1 trillion euro-region bailout in a vote today, allaying market concern that they would balk at approving a second emergency aid package in as many weeks. The lower house of parliament voted 319 to 73 in favor of contributing as much as 148 billion euros ($184 billion) to indebted European states to backstop the euro; 195 lawmakers abstained. The upper house, or Bundesrat, also passed the measure, sending it on to President Horst Koehler for signature. “Every other alternative is much worse and much more dangerous, so we have to do this,” Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told the lower house, or Bundestag, in Berlin before the vote. “We’re not doing this for others, we’re doing it for ourselves and for future generations.” The vote came before European finance ministers were meeting for the fifth time in as many weeks as they struggle to forge a united front to the debt crisis triggered by Greece. Today in Brussels, the officials will discuss proposals to better coordinate national budgets and may address unilateral German limits on government bond trading. Short-Selling Ban Two weeks ago lawmakers backed loans for Greece, a decision Chancellor Angela Merkel cited for an election setback two days later in Germany’s most populous state. She has since stepped up her calls for regulation to stem Europe’s debt crisis and forbid some types of short-selling this week, unsettling markets and depressing the euro. The day the trading curbs took effect the euro sank to its lowest since 2006. The single currency has lost 13 percent against the dollar this year. The euro was up 0.25 percent to $1.2518 at 2:23 p.m. in Berlin. “We shouldn’t be too relieved,” Marco Annunziata , chief economist at UniCredit SpA, said in a telephone interview from London. “The markets have moved to other concerns. Those concerns seem to be centered on the uncoordinated, disjointed momentum toward new regulation,” sparked by the German short- selling ban. The crisis is taking a toll on Merkel’s popularity, which has declined as Germans expressed concern about the economy, according to an FG Wahlen poll for ZDF television released today. Merkel scored a 1.3 approval rating on a scale of plus 5 to minus 5, compared with 1.8 last month, in the May 18-20 survey of 1,260 potential voters. Euro-Region, IMF The 750 billion-euro support package is being assembled from 500 billion euros in contributions from states in the euro area and another 250 billion from the International Monetary Fund. European Central Bank Governing Council member Axel Weber urged German lawmakers at a parliamentary hearing on May 19 to back the rescue plan, saying investors were counting on support from Europe’s biggest nation. Rejection would trigger “dramatic” market developments , Weber said. The opposition Social Democrats abstained after failing to secure a government commitment to pursue a financial transaction tax in return for their backing. The legislation cleared the lower house by only seven votes after Merkel lost the support of the Green Party, which supported the Greek measure two weeks ago. They said Merkel hadn’t been transparent about the package. President Koehler will receive the legislation immediately on his return from a trip to China late today, according to a presidential spokesman in Berlin. Koehler made a surprise two- hour stop in Afghanistan to visit German troops today on his way home, the spokesman said. The timing of any signature will depend on his assessment of the bill. Upper House While Merkel lost a majority in Berlin’s upper house in the May 9 state election in North Rhine-Westphalia , the changes don’t take effect until a new regional government is formed. Until then, she controls the upper house, where Germany’s 16 states are represented. European Union finance chiefs are considering proposals for tougher and speedier penalties for violators of budget rules and stricter monitoring of high-debt countries. Merkel said on May 19 that Germany will push for faster budget cuts and a process for orderly insolvency of euro-area states at today’s meeting. Her isolation on the trading limits this week prompted renewed commitments to seek consensus on economic policies and financial regulation. Merkel issued a statement late yesterday that she and French President Nicolas Sarkozy agreed in a phone conversation to work “closely together.” They said they would prepare jointly for a June 17 European Union summit and for the subsequent Group of 20 gathering in Canada. Merkel this week warned lawmakers to consider the gravity of the fallout of the single currency. “The euro, which along with the common market is the foundation for growth and prosperity for Germany as well, is at risk,” she said, warning of “incalculable” global consequences if lawmakers fail to back the measure. To contact the reporter on this story: Patrick Donahue in Berlin at pdonahue1@bloomberg.net ; Tony Czuczka in Berlin at aczuczka@bloomberg.net

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U.K. Posts Record April Deficit of $14.4 Billion as Emergency Budget Looms

May 21, 2010

By Craig Stirling May 21 (Bloomberg) — Britain had the biggest fiscal deficit for any April since monthly records began in 1993, underlining the scale of the squeeze to come as Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne prepares an emergency budget. The 10 billion-pound ($14.4 billion) shortfall compared with 8.8 billion pounds a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. The result was lower than the 10.9 billion-pound median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 15 economists. The report sets the scene for what economists say will be the sharpest cuts in public spending for a generation. Osborne has ordered departments to find 6 billion pounds of savings this year and will set out further reductions in his June 22 budget. “The direction of the public finances will be given a huge steer by the emergency budget,” said Philip Shaw , chief economist at Investec Securities in London. “We suspect that the new chancellor will announce some draconian changes to fiscal policy, resulting in a significant and necessary decline in public borrowing this year.” The pound extended gains against the dollar and was trading up 0.6 percent at $1.4404 as of 9:36 a.m. in London. The 10-year gilt yield was up 1 basis point at 3.57 percent. Britain this month formed its first coalition government for 65 years following inconclusive elections, ending 13 years of Labour Party rule. Coalition Unity Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron and his Liberal Democrat deputy Nick Clegg yesterday said they were united over the need for immediate action to reduce the deficit, the largest in the Group of Seven at 11.1 percent of gross domestic product last year. Cameron has refused to rule out raising the rate of value-added tax, a 17.5 percent levy on sales. The looming budget-cutting drive has overshadowed prospects for consumer spending as the economy emerges from its worst recession on record. Osborne has pledged to cut the deficit at a faster pace than Gordon Brown ’s Labour government had planned. Next Plc, the U.K.’s second-largest clothing retailer, said on May 5 that it was “very cautious” on the outlook for households because “whatever form this action takes, it is likely that it will act to restrain growth in consumer spending.” Tax Take There were signs the economic recovery is starting to help the public finances, with tax revenue rising 7.2 percent in April from a year earlier. In cash terms, VAT soared 34 percent from a year earlier, corporation tax gained 13 percent and national insurance contributions, a payroll tax, increased 22 percent. Central government spending climbed 6.5 percent. There was also a 7.5 billion-pound downward revision to the last fiscal year, 5.5 billion pounds of which came in March alone. The statistics office said the revision was due to higher tax receipts, particularly income tax and VAT, than initially estimated. For the fiscal year through March, net borrowing excluding financial interventions was 156 billion pounds, instead of 163 billion pounds. Total borrowing was 145 billion pounds rather than 153 billion pounds. A measure of cash entering and leaving the Treasury showed an 8.8 billion-pound deficit in April. Economists predicted a 7 billion-pound shortfall, according to the median forecast of 8 economists. Separate data released today showed business investment rose in the first quarter. Corporate spending on equipment, vehicles and buildings increased 6 percent from the previous three months. It dropped 11 percent from a year earlier. To contact the reporter on this story: Craig Stirling in London at cstirling1@bloomberg.net .

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U.S. Stocks Sink Most in Year on New Uncertainty

May 20, 2010

By Whitney Kisling and Elizabeth Stanton May 20 (Bloomberg) — A weeklong rout in stocks deepened, with U.S. benchmark indexes losing the most in more than a year, as reports cast doubts about the strength of the economic recovery and European leaders struggled to contain the region’s debt crisis. Commodities plunged and Treasuries soared. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index plunged 3.9 percent to 1,071.59 at 4 p.m. in New York, its biggest drop since April 2009. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 2.2 percent and the S&P GSCI Index of commodities tumbled to the lowest since October. The losses accelerated even as the euro rallied as much as 1.5 percent to $1.2598 after earlier flirting with a four-year low. Ten-year Treasury yields sank to the lowest level of the year, down 15 basis points at 3.22 percent. The yen rallied against all 16 major counterparts. Tomorrow’s expiration of U.S. stock options and progress on a financial-reform bill may have added to volatility after U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly increased to 471,000 last week and the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators posted a surprise drop of 0.1 percent. The slide came a day before the German parliament votes on the country’s share of a $1 trillion bailout to halt a worsening sovereign debt crisis. “Put your helmets on if you are long risk here,” Nicolas Lenoir , chief market strategist at ICAP Futures LLC in Jersey City, New Jersey, said in a note to clients before markets opened today. “A lot of stops have been triggered when the S&P future crossed 1,100 and anybody still long will probably have to bail out and head for cover.” S&P 500 Correction Gauges of financial, industrial and commodity companies tumbled more than 4.4 percent each to lead declines in all 10 of the S&P 500’s main industry groups. Bank of America Corp., Alcoa Inc. and General Electric Co. dropped more than 5.7 percent as all 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell, dragging the gauge down 376.36 points, or 3.6 percent, to 10,068.01 for its biggest tumble since March 5, 2009. Both the S&P 500 and Dow closed at their lowest levels since Feb. 10. Today’s plunge in stocks came as the Securities and Exchange Commission continues its autopsy of the chain reaction of selling that briefly erased $1 trillion in stock value on May 6. Kentucky Republican Senator Jim Bunning and Virginia Democrat Mark Warner today said at a committee hearing that they were concerned the so-called flash crash could be repeated. ‘Question of Confidence’ “It’s a question of confidence,” said Jack Ablin , chief investment officer at Chicago-based Harris Private Bank, which oversees $55 billion. The almost 1000-point decline in the Dow average on May 6 “not only rattled the confidence of investors, but everyday policymakers are digging in and not giving us answers as to what’s causing this problem.” At 1,071.59, the S&P 500 is 24 percent below its level 10 years ago, just after the peak of the Internet bubble. The index is 17 percent below its level on May 18, 2001, and 3 percent above its closing price on the first trading day after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorism attacks. Stock futures extended declines before exchanges opened in New York after the S&P 500’s June futures contract slipped below its average price over the past 200 days, a level watched by technical analysts as an inflection point that may trigger deeper losses. The S&P 500 itself closed below its 200-day moving average today for the first time since July 2009. The drop below the level may not necessarily signal more losses to come, according to Harrison, New York-based Bespoke Investment Group LLC. On the previous occasions when it closed below the 200-day moving average after having stayed above it for at least 100 days on a closing basis, the S&P 500 “has actually done well” in the following months, according to a Bespoke note yesterday, with positive returns one, three and six months later. Economy Watch Today’s rout came as initial jobless claims rose by 25,000 to 471,000 in the week ended May 15, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the highest level in a month, Labor Department figures showed. Losses accelerated in the regular session after the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators unexpectedly slumped 0.1 percent. The S&P 500 has plunged about 12 percent from a 19-month high on April 23, a retreat surpassing 10 percent typically known as a correction. The index has pared its rally from a 12- year low in March 2009 to 59 percent. The Nasdaq Composite Index today joined the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 in erasing its 2010 advance. ‘Corrective Territory’ “We are clearly in corrective territory,” Robert Doll , who helps oversee $3.36 trillion as vice chairman and chief equity strategist at New York-based BlackRock Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Europe has to stabilize, we need further evidence of cyclical improvement here in the U.S. and a little less volatility. When we get those things, we believe the cyclical bull market will resume.” The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the benchmark gauge of U.S. stock options known as the VIX , jumped 30 percent to 45.79, its highest level since March 20, 2009. The gauge usually goes up as stocks fall on rising demand for options to protect against further losses. U.S. May options expire tomorrow. “It adds to the pressure,” Stephen Lieber, chief investment officer of Alpine Woods Capital Investors LLC, which manages more than $7 billion from Purchase, New York, said of options expiration. “People are particularly nervous about the outlook of Europe.” Naked-Short Ban Stocks plunged yesterday as German Chancellor Angela Merkel ’s unilateral effort to control what she called “destructive” markets rattled investors. The German ban on some bearish bets against financial companies and government bonds wasn’t replicated in other European states and European Central Bank council member Nout Wellink said Germany should have consulted other countries before introducing the ban. The S&P 500 Financials Index tumbled 4.7 percent today, with Bank of America Corp., Wells Fargo & Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. pacing declines among all 79 companies. President Barack Obama said the financial regulation overhaul moving through Congress will help the economy and protect consumers by bringing greater accountability to Wall Street. The “hordes of lobbyists” from financial firms have failed to block the legislation, which will bring “sensible” rules to the market place, Obama said at the White House after the Senate voted 60-40 to clear the way for a final vote on the legislation. The measure would create a consumer financial- protection bureau at the Federal Reserve, overhaul rules for hedge funds and derivatives, and create a mechanism for dissolving failed firms whose collapse would roil the economy. European Stocks Only 30 of 600 stocks rose in Europe’s Stoxx 600 . Yesterday’s 3 percent plunge left the benchmark gauge trading at less than 15 times its companies’ reported earnings, near the lowest level since December 2008. National Grid Plc , the operator of the U.K.’s power and gas networks, slumped 7 percent in London after announcing a 3.2 billion-pound ($4.6 billion) rights issue. SABMiller Plc , the world’s second-largest brewer, tumbled 6 percent as earnings missed estimates. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 3.1 percent as China’s Shanghai Composite Index slipped 1.2 percent, Russia’s Micex Index dropped 4.3 percent and Turkey’s ISE National 100 Index lost 4.4 percent. Dubai’s DFM General Index climbed 0.4 percent after creditors of Dubai World agreed to restructure $23.5 billion of liabilities as the state-owned holding company seeks to resolve a debt crisis that roiled global markets last year. ‘Unchartered Waters’ The global slide in equities may worsen and inflows to Treasuries will increase amid concern that Europe’s debt crisis will derail global growth, said Mohamed A. El-Erian , chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. “This is not a typical retracement,” El-Erian, 51, whose firm runs the world’s biggest bond fund, wrote in an e-mail. “We are in uncharted waters on account of several issues, including what is going on in Europe and other important structural regime changes. In economic terms, European developments are unambiguously bad for global growth.” The 10-year Treasury yield touched 3.2 percent today, the lowest level since Dec. 1. Yields on British, French and German 10-year bonds lost at least eight basis points, while Italy’s and Spain’s rose at least five basis points. The benchmark U.S. Treasury note’s yield may drop to 2.5 percent as investors lose confidence in some European nations’ ability to repay their debts, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc said. ‘Political Risk’ “It’s difficult trading Treasuries right now because we are trading almost solely on European political risk,” said Donald Ellenberger , who oversees about $6 billion as co-head of government and mortgage-backed securities at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh. “I do think that it’s safe to say that a lot of people have underestimated how far down yields could fall from a problem that started in a relatively tiny country.” The euro erased earlier losses against the dollar amid speculation the Swiss National Bank sought to support the franc drove traders to theorize that the European Central Bank may do the same for the shared currency. The euro rose against all 16 major counterparts except the yen, gaining more than 3 percent against the Canadian dollar, the South Korean won, Brazil’s real and the Australian dollar. Germany Vote on Bailout Volker Kauder , who heads Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic alliance in parliament, said the almost $1 trillion emergency lending package for indebted European nations should be approved when it goes to a vote tomorrow. The three parties in Merkel’s coalition, which together have 332 of the 622 seats in the lower house of parliament, conducted a trial vote today, Kauder told reporters in Berlin. Seven lawmakers voted against and two abstained, giving the required majority to approve the bill, he said. Crude oil tumbled 2.7 percent to $68.01 a barrel in New York and touched $64.24, the lowest level since July, as stocks fell and the euro weakened. The cost to protect against defaults on U.S. corporate bonds rose to the highest since May 6, trading in a benchmark credit derivatives index shows. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index Series 14, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or speculate on creditworthiness, increased 11 basis points to a mid-price of 124.5 basis points. To contact the reporters on this story: Whitney Kisling in New York at wkisling@bloomberg.net ; Elizabeth Stanton in New York at estanton@bloomberg.net .

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Sweet Spot Found in Longest Maturities as Inflation Slows: Credit Markets

May 20, 2010

By John Detrixhe May 20 (Bloomberg) — The first decline in U.S. consumer prices in more than a year is driving investors to the longest- maturity bonds in a bet tame inflation will keep the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates this year. Investment-grade corporate debt due in 15 years or more has returned 3.89 percent since the start of April, beating all other maturity ranges as concern flared Greece’s deficit will spark a credit contagion and slow the global economy, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. Credit due in one to three years has gained 0.289 percent. The debt is luring buyers with yields 3.53 percentage points more than shorter-maturity bonds, among the widest spreads since 2003. Futures show traders are betting there’s a 39 percent chance Fed policy makers will raise their target rate for overnight loans between banks by at least a quarter- percentage point by their December meeting, down from a 63 percent probability a month ago. “The opportunity is on the long end of the curve,” said Burt White , chief investment officer at Boston-based LPL Financial Corp., which oversees $284 billion and has been buying corporate bonds maturing in 10 or more years in the past week. “The Fed’s going to be on the sidelines for a while and I think people are beginning to realize that now.” The 0.1 percent drop in the consumer price index in April marked the first decrease since March 2009, figures from the Labor Department showed yesterday in Washington. Excluding food and fuel, the so-called core rate was unchanged, capping the smallest 12-month gain in four decades. Slower inflation preserves the value of fixed-interest payments, especially for longer-maturity bonds. Short-Selling Ban Elsewhere in credit markets, company borrowing costs jumped in the wake of Germany’s short-selling ban, wiping out the decline that followed a $1 trillion loan package that was meant to stop Europe’s sovereign debt crisis from spreading. The extra yield investors demand to own global corporate bonds instead of government debt rose 5 basis points to 177 basis points, or 1.77 percentage point, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Corporate Index shows. That matches this year’s high reached May 7, the last working day before the European Union agreed on a 750 billion- euro ($927 billion) bailout for Greece, where the budget crisis started. Average yields on the bonds rose 2.8 basis points to 3.933 percent, the index data show. Merkel’s Move German regulator BaFin, seeking to calm Europe’s financial markets, on May 18 banned traders within the country from buying default protection on government bonds they don’t own. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble host international talks on financial regulation today in Berlin. “Markets don’t like uncertainty, uncertainty breeds fear and that leads investors to look for higher-quality assets,” said John Anderson , who helps manage around 23 billion pounds ($33 billion) of assets as head of credit at Gartmore Investments in London. The cost of protecting against default on U.S. and European corporate bonds rose, with the Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index Series 14 climbing 9.4 basis points to a mid-price of 122.8 basis points as of 11:26 a.m. in New York, according to Markit Group Ltd. In London, the Markit iTraxx Europe index of credit swaps on 125 investment-grade companies increased 7 basis points to 127.2, Markit prices show. Investors use the indexes to hedge against losses or to speculate on creditworthiness, and a rise signals a decline in perceptions of credit quality. Swaps Market ‘Skittish’ “The CDS market remains skittish and we expect further volatility,” Ken Hanton , a senior credit analyst at National Australia Bank Ltd., said in a phone interview from Sydney. Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value if a borrower fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt. A basis point equals $1,000 annually on a contract protecting $10 million of debt. Dubai World agreed “in principle” with a group of creditor banks on terms to restructure $14.4 billion of loans. The state-owned holding company will pay $4.4 billion in five years and the remaining $10 billion in eight years, it said in an e-mailed statement. Banks will have the option to choose from combinations of loan maturities in dollar or dirhams that carry different interest rates. Including the Dubai government’s debt, the total liabilities being restructured is $23.5 billion. Government Holdings Bill Gross , who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. , increased holdings of U.S. government-related debt last month to the highest level since November. The $224.5 billion Total Return Fund ’s investment in government-related debt, which includes Treasuries, was boosted to 36 percent of assets in April, from 33 percent in the previous month, according to the Web site of Newport Beach, California-based Pimco. Non-U.S. developed-nation debt accounted for 13 percent, down from 18 percent in March and the least since it composed 5 percent of the assets in November. In emerging markets, bond spreads versus Treasuries increased 25 basis points to 340, the highest since October, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Emerging Market Bond index. Tamer Inflation Tamer inflation increases the odds the Fed will stand pat on rates, said Kenneth Volpert , who oversees $275 billion as head of taxable fixed income at Vanguard Group in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania. The U.S. central bank has kept its target rate at zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008. “The uncertainty about what is going on in Europe is probably going to cause our recovery to be a little slower,” Volpert said. “Hiring plans may get pushed further down the road. There may be more anxiety among consumers that causes the recovery to be slower.” U.S. corporate bonds due in 15 years or more underperformed debt maturing in one to three years as recently as March, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. The longer-maturity bonds gained 0.128 percent that month, compared with a 0.298 percent return for the shorter-dated securities. The longer-maturity debt yielded 1.66 percentage points more than shorter-term bonds a year ago, the data show. The gap was 1.75 percentage points in 2008. Traders refer to the most attractive place to invest along the yield curve as the sweet spot. Debt of Assured Guaranty Ltd., the bond insurance company backed by billionaire Wilbur Ross , has returned 7.58 percent in May, the best in the Bank of America Merrill Lynch index of bonds due in 15 years or later. Assured Guaranty’s net income more than tripled to $322 million in the first quarter on the acquisition of a competitor last year, the Hamilton, Bermuda- based company said May 10. Pactiv Underperforms Debt issued by Pactiv Corp., the maker of Hefty trash bags, is the worst performing in the index, having lost 15.98 percent. Apollo Global Management LLC, run by billionaire Leon Black , is in talks to buy Lake Forest, Illinois-based Pactiv, a person with knowledge of the discussions said May 17. “The market has shifted from concerns about principal loss and a rising rate environment,” said John Milne , chief executive officer of JKMilne Asset Management, who oversees about $1.8 billion in Fort Myers, Florida. “That’s the result of the expectation that rates are going to be fairly stable and low.” To contact the reporter on this story: John Detrixhe in New York at jdetrixhe1@bloomberg.net

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Sweet Spot Found in Longest Maturities as Inflation Slows: Credit Markets

May 20, 2010

By John Detrixhe May 20 (Bloomberg) — The first decline in U.S. consumer prices in more than a year is driving investors to the longest- maturity bonds in a bet tame inflation will keep the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates this year. Investment-grade corporate debt due in 15 years or more has returned 3.89 percent since the start of April, beating all other maturity ranges as concern flared Greece’s deficit will spark a credit contagion and slow the global economy, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. Credit due in one to three years has gained 0.289 percent. The debt is luring buyers with yields 3.53 percentage points more than shorter-maturity bonds, among the widest spreads since 2003. Futures show traders are betting there’s a 39 percent chance Fed policy makers will raise their target rate for overnight loans between banks by at least a quarter- percentage point by their December meeting, down from a 63 percent probability a month ago. “The opportunity is on the long end of the curve,” said Burt White , chief investment officer at Boston-based LPL Financial Corp., which oversees $284 billion and has been buying corporate bonds maturing in 10 or more years in the past week. “The Fed’s going to be on the sidelines for a while and I think people are beginning to realize that now.” The 0.1 percent drop in the consumer price index in April marked the first decrease since March 2009, figures from the Labor Department showed yesterday in Washington. Excluding food and fuel, the so-called core rate was unchanged, capping the smallest 12-month gain in four decades. Slower inflation preserves the value of fixed-interest payments, especially for longer-maturity bonds. Short-Selling Ban Elsewhere in credit markets, company borrowing costs jumped in the wake of Germany’s short-selling ban, wiping out the decline that followed a $1 trillion loan package that was meant to stop Europe’s sovereign debt crisis from spreading. The extra yield investors demand to own global corporate bonds instead of government debt rose 5 basis points to 177 basis points, or 1.77 percentage point, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Corporate Index shows. That matches this year’s high reached May 7, the last working day before the European Union agreed on a 750 billion- euro ($927 billion) bailout for Greece, where the budget crisis started. Average yields on the bonds rose 2.8 basis points to 3.933 percent, the index data show. Merkel’s Move German regulator BaFin, seeking to calm Europe’s financial markets, on May 18 banned traders within the country from buying default protection on government bonds they don’t own. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble host international talks on financial regulation today in Berlin. “Markets don’t like uncertainty, uncertainty breeds fear and that leads investors to look for higher-quality assets,” said John Anderson , who helps manage around 23 billion pounds ($33 billion) of assets as head of credit at Gartmore Investments in London. The cost of protecting against default on U.S. and European corporate bonds rose, with the Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index Series 14 climbing 9.4 basis points to a mid-price of 122.8 basis points as of 11:26 a.m. in New York, according to Markit Group Ltd. In London, the Markit iTraxx Europe index of credit swaps on 125 investment-grade companies increased 7 basis points to 127.2, Markit prices show. Investors use the indexes to hedge against losses or to speculate on creditworthiness, and a rise signals a decline in perceptions of credit quality. Swaps Market ‘Skittish’ “The CDS market remains skittish and we expect further volatility,” Ken Hanton , a senior credit analyst at National Australia Bank Ltd., said in a phone interview from Sydney. Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value if a borrower fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt. A basis point equals $1,000 annually on a contract protecting $10 million of debt. Dubai World agreed “in principle” with a group of creditor banks on terms to restructure $14.4 billion of loans. The state-owned holding company will pay $4.4 billion in five years and the remaining $10 billion in eight years, it said in an e-mailed statement. Banks will have the option to choose from combinations of loan maturities in dollar or dirhams that carry different interest rates. Including the Dubai government’s debt, the total liabilities being restructured is $23.5 billion. Government Holdings Bill Gross , who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. , increased holdings of U.S. government-related debt last month to the highest level since November. The $224.5 billion Total Return Fund ’s investment in government-related debt, which includes Treasuries, was boosted to 36 percent of assets in April, from 33 percent in the previous month, according to the Web site of Newport Beach, California-based Pimco. Non-U.S. developed-nation debt accounted for 13 percent, down from 18 percent in March and the least since it composed 5 percent of the assets in November. In emerging markets, bond spreads versus Treasuries increased 25 basis points to 340, the highest since October, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Emerging Market Bond index. Tamer Inflation Tamer inflation increases the odds the Fed will stand pat on rates, said Kenneth Volpert , who oversees $275 billion as head of taxable fixed income at Vanguard Group in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania. The U.S. central bank has kept its target rate at zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008. “The uncertainty about what is going on in Europe is probably going to cause our recovery to be a little slower,” Volpert said. “Hiring plans may get pushed further down the road. There may be more anxiety among consumers that causes the recovery to be slower.” U.S. corporate bonds due in 15 years or more underperformed debt maturing in one to three years as recently as March, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. The longer-maturity bonds gained 0.128 percent that month, compared with a 0.298 percent return for the shorter-dated securities. The longer-maturity debt yielded 1.66 percentage points more than shorter-term bonds a year ago, the data show. The gap was 1.75 percentage points in 2008. Traders refer to the most attractive place to invest along the yield curve as the sweet spot. Debt of Assured Guaranty Ltd., the bond insurance company backed by billionaire Wilbur Ross , has returned 7.58 percent in May, the best in the Bank of America Merrill Lynch index of bonds due in 15 years or later. Assured Guaranty’s net income more than tripled to $322 million in the first quarter on the acquisition of a competitor last year, the Hamilton, Bermuda- based company said May 10. Pactiv Underperforms Debt issued by Pactiv Corp., the maker of Hefty trash bags, is the worst performing in the index, having lost 15.98 percent. Apollo Global Management LLC, run by billionaire Leon Black , is in talks to buy Lake Forest, Illinois-based Pactiv, a person with knowledge of the discussions said May 17. “The market has shifted from concerns about principal loss and a rising rate environment,” said John Milne , chief executive officer of JKMilne Asset Management, who oversees about $1.8 billion in Fort Myers, Florida. “That’s the result of the expectation that rates are going to be fairly stable and low.” To contact the reporter on this story: John Detrixhe in New York at jdetrixhe1@bloomberg.net

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Stocks Fall for Sixth Day, U.S. Futures Drop as Euro Weakens; Oil Declines

May 20, 2010

By David Merritt May 20 (Bloomberg) — Stocks slid for a sixth day and U.S. index futures declined as the euro weakened against the dollar. Oil fell and palladium extended its losing streak to the worst since July. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations’ stocks fell 0.5 percent at 11:45 a.m. in London for its longest losing streak in four months. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.5 percent and futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index retreated 0.6 percent. The euro weakened against the dollar, trading near the lowest level in four years. Palladium lost 7.5 percent, extending its six-day slump to 22 percent. European finance officials meet in Brussels a day before the German parliament votes on the country’s share of a $1 trillion bailout to backstop the euro in the wake of a worsening sovereign debt crisis. Stocks plunged yesterday as Chancellor Angela Merkel ’s unilateral effort to control what she called “destructive” markets rattled investors. The German ban on some bearish bets against financial companies and government bonds wasn’t replicated in other European states. “My major concern in Europe is that in order for the zone to start kicking in you need to see some serious austerity,” said Jonathan Plant, a strategist at Liberum Capital Ltd. in London. “It goes back to whether stocks are cheap, and they are just not cheap enough for me.” More than two stocks fell for every one that gained on the Stoxx 600. Yesterday’s 3 percent plunge left the benchmark gauge trading at less than 15 times its companies’ reported earnings, near the lowest level since December 2008. National Grid Plc, the operator of the U.K.’s power and gas networks, slumped 7.5 percent in London after announcing a 3.2 billion-pound ($4.6 billion) rights issue. SABMiller Plc, the world’s second-largest brewer, tumbled 6.2 percent as earnings missed estimates. Dubai Restructuring The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 1.4 percent as China’s Shanghai Composite Index slipped 1.2 percent, Russia’s Micex Index dropped 1.4 percent and Turkey’s ISE National 100 Index lost 3 percent. Dubai’s DFM General Index climbed 0.4 percent after creditors of Dubai World agreed to restructure $23.5 billion of liabilities as the state-owned holding company seeks to resolve a debt crisis that roiled global markets last year. The decline in U.S. futures indicated the S&P 500 will extend its 0.5 percent decline yesterday, when it wiped out its gain for 2010. The Federal Reserve said it was in no hurry to sell mortgage assets as it raised its U.S. growth estimates for 2010 and lowered forecasts for unemployment and inflation, according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on April 27-28 released yesterday. Palladium Retreat The U.S. Conference Board’s measure of the economy’s outlook for the next three to six months probably climbed 0.2 percent last month, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The figures, due at 10:00 a.m. New York time, follow a 1.4 percent gain in March that was the most since a similar rise in May 2009. The Fed Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index and initial jobless claims data are also due to be released today. Palladium, used in auto catalysts and jewelry, retreated $35.63 to $424.00 an ounce on concern that slower economic growth will sap demand for cars and consumer goods. Palladium had advanced as much as 39 percent this year, after more than doubling last year, as auto sales expanded and an exchange- traded fund backed by the metal was introduced. Platinum dropped 4 percent to $1,537.25 an ounce. Copper for delivery in three months fell as much as $1.03, or 1.5 percent to $68.84 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Spanish Auction The euro weakened 0.7 percent to $1.2333, near the lowest level since April 17, 2006. The yield on German 10-year bunds, Europe’s benchmark debt security, climbed to 2.75 percent. Spain sold 10-year bonds to yield 4.045 percent. That’s higher than the 3.855 percent yield at an auction two months ago and compares with an average of 3.869 percent at the previous four sales. The cost of protecting against a default on European corporate bonds rose, with credit-default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 mostly high-yield companies climbing 8.7 basis points to 582.2, according to Markit Group Ltd. To contact the reporter on this story: David Merritt in London on dmerritt1@bloomberg.net

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Osborne Pledges to Create Most Competitive Company Tax Regime Within G-20

May 20, 2010

By Gonzalo Vina May 20 (Bloomberg) — Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne pledged to spur growth and exports by simplifying Britain’s company tax system and delivering “the most competitive corporate tax regime” of any major economy. Osborne said he will use his June 22 emergency budget to strip away rules governing exemptions and tax breaks, while tackling avoidance so that he can lower the tax rate on profits. “We need wholesale reform,” Osborne told industrialists at a dinner in London yesterday, according to extracts from his speech released by his office. The new coalition government formed this month is committed to delivering “lower and simpler corporate tax rates.” Osborne is seeking to reassure companies that he will introduce policies to boost economic growth as he embarks on the deepest cuts in government spending in a generation. He said he will take steps to encourage international companies to come to the U.K. by overhauling controlled foreign companies rules. The measures are due to be announced in London today when Prime Minister David Cameron publishes the full terms of the Conservatives’ coalition agreement with Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg ’s Liberal Democrats. During the campaign for the May 6 election, the Conservatives pledged to cut the main rate of corporation tax to 25 percent from 28 percent and the small-companies rate to 20 percent. Osborne made no reference to specific rates in his speech yesterday to the Confederation of British Industry, the nation’s biggest employers’ group. Spider Web of Rules “Since 1997, the tax legislation handbook has more than doubled in length,” Osborne said. “It is now over 11,000 pages long. This spider web of tax rules is holding back people who want to set up businesses. And our corporate tax rates are increasingly uncompetitive.” Helen Alexander , president of the CBI, urged Osborne to spare companies as he tackles Britain’s record budget deficit. “More taxes on business shouldn’t even be considered,” she said at the dinner, according to excerpts of her speech released by the CBI. “If we want enterprise, jobs and growth — and we all know that we do — then more tax on business will have the opposite effect, so this approach has to come off the menu.” Osborne wants government departments next week to outline how they plan to save 6 billion pounds ($8.6 billion) this year. Further, deeper cuts will be announced in the budget next month. To contact the reporter on this story: Gonzalo Vina in Brussels at gvina@bloomberg.net

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Europe Crisis in Rescue for Greece Bringing Euro to a New Normal of $1.10

May 20, 2010

By Tony Czuczka and Anchalee Worrachate May 20 (Bloomberg) — Europe’s debt crisis will depress the euro still further after it declined to the lowest level since 2006, according to UBS AG and BNP Paribas SA. For years to come. For the 16 countries using the currency, that isn’t all bad. A drop over three to four years would benefit European exporters in countries such as Germany, where foreign sales help offset reductions in government spending and restraint by consumers concerned about inflation. U.S. exports, which President Barack Obama says he wants to double within five years, may become less competitive. “The euro depreciation is very good news for the region” because the rest of the world economy is expanding, said Charles Wyplosz , head of the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies in Geneva. “This is going to bring a welcome boost that may save the euro zone from outright recession.” While Wyplosz puts the euro’s long-term “fair value” at between about $1.10 and $1.20, currency movements “tend to overshoot,” he said. “My bet is that the euro still has ample room to go down before it goes up.” Wyplosz’s view is shared by strategists at UBS, Danske Bank A/S, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Bank of America Merrill Lynch. They predict the euro will trade at between $1.15 and $1.26 by the end of the year, with BNP Paribas saying it may fall below parity with the dollar in the first quarter of 2011, according to 43 forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. Greek Contagion The euro fell to the lowest against the dollar in more than four years on May 17 and has lost 14 percent this year as the fiscal crisis spreading from Greece undermined confidence in the currency. Purchasing power parity, a measure of the relative cost of goods, indicates the euro remains 8.2 percent overvalued against the dollar, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. Even if Greece is unable to meet debt obligations and is forced to reschedule interest and maturity payments, it will remain within the European Monetary Union and retain the euro, said bankers in Athens requesting anonymity because they are handling the government’s finances. The currency’s value is still higher than the weekly average rate of $1.1833 since its introduction in 1999. The euro’s all-time low was $0.8272 in October 2000; the peak was $1.6038 on July 15, 2008. The euro may stick at lower levels for “three, four years” as Europe grapples with its fiscal crisis, Hans-Guenter Redeker , global head of currency strategy at BNP Paribas, said in a phone interview. ECB Strategy The euro may fall over the next three months to $1.16 as the sovereign debt crisis forces the European Central Bank to keep borrowing costs low, Credit Suisse Group AG strategists wrote in a note to clients on May 18. The decline in the euro may hurt demand for the region’s sovereign bonds at the time when governments are issuing a record amount of debt. Standard Life Investments said on May 18 the fund has cut its holdings of European government securities, including German bonds, citing fiscal challenges and the tumbling euro. “Countries in the euro region are bringing forward fiscal tightening and that reduces a chance of a swift and strong economic recovery,” said Richard Batty , a global investment strategist at the Edinburgh-based fund, which has $175 billion of assets under management. “That hurts the euro. By buying euro-denominated assets, you are simply buying into the idea that the euro will remain stable.” Three Concerns The $1 trillion lending backstop for indebted euro nations agreed to by European leaders on May 10 also won’t halt the slide because investors remain concerned about government debt, the growth outlook for Europe’s weaker economies and trade imbalances within the euro area, said Mansoor Mohi-uddin , chief currency strategist at UBS in Singapore. The Frankfurt-based ECB probably will refrain from raising interest rates to help offset declining government spending in the region, Mohi-uddin said. “The combination of tightened fiscal policy and looser monetary policy historically leads to a weaker currency,” he said. Even so, pressure on the ECB to raise rates may grow as the euro’s decline feeds inflation by making imports more expensive. European inflation accelerated to a 16-month high in April, the European Union’s statistics office said May 18. For European exporters, the euro’s biggest crisis since the monetary union’s debut is an opportunity after China overtook Germany as the biggest exporter of goods last year. Big Headache Bayerische Motoren Werke AG , the world’s largest maker of luxury vehicles, gets almost a quarter of its revenue in North America. Shares in Munich-based BMW have gained 23 percent this year. Paris and Munich-based European Aeronautics, Defense and Space Co., the maker of Airbus jets, has called the euro’s rate to the dollar one of the company’s “biggest headaches.” Munich-based Siemens AG , Europe’s largest engineering company, is also looking to benefit as it competes in 190 countries, according to Chief Financial Officer Joe Kaeser . “In general, a stronger greenback is good,” he said in a May 18 conference call. “The super-competitive export machine of Germany is going to be compensated with a very, very weak exchange rate,” said Redeker. “You have a plus-plus situation on the profitability, especially for Siemens or the car industry. They will find a very profitable situation.” Exports account for almost half of the German economy, making up 47 percent of gross domestic product in 2008, the latest year for which full data are available. Not Good The biggest losers will be U.S. exporters that face a rising dollar, Barry Eichengreen , an economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, said in a phone interview. “A weaker European economy is not good for us.” Exports helped lead the U.S. economic recovery as the dollar declined against other major currencies last year, contributing 42 percent to the 5.6 percent growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2009, according to Commerce Department data. Since February, U.S. imports have been rising faster than exports. While a cheaper euro may lure tourists to Europe, further boosting the continent, they may think twice about going to Greece, said Alan Ruskin , head of foreign-exchange strategy at RBS Securities in Stamford, Connecticut. He wrote in a note on May 13 that the euro could “easily head through parity” with the U.S. dollar. Molotov Cocktails “A weaker euro may help tourism in Greece. But on the other hand, a lot of people will be looking at the news and seeing Molotov cocktails flying through the air,” he said in a telephone interview. “That significant distraction could offset the benefit of a weaker currency.” Concern by investors that the fiscal crisis will drag on and deficit-cutting in Europe’s biggest economies will undermine growth is keeping pressure on the euro. Another financial rescue package may be “inevitable,” former Bank of Bank of England official David Blanchflower said in a Bloomberg Television interview on May 18. Bringing down European budget deficits will take years. Greece’s government aims to lower the budget deficit from 13.6 percent of gross domestic product last year, more than four times the level allowed by the euro’s founding treaty. Spain, seeking to ward off Greek contagion, on May 12 unveiled the biggest budget cuts in at least 30 years to reduce the deficit to 6 percent of GDP in 2011 from 11.2 percent last year. Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel is pressing other European countries to enforce fiscal discipline, plans to meet the deficit target of 3 percent by 2013 under a constitutional amendment that dictates cuts in government borrowing. European policy makers are helping depress the euro with their strategy in the debt crisis, said Stephen Jen , a managing director at BlueGold Capital Management LLP in London. “It’s hard to say what the sufficient conditions are for me to be bullish on the euro, but a necessary condition is that Greece and Portugal reschedule their debt,” he said. “The longer the Eurocrats resist this inevitable outcome, the less credible and consistent they appear.” To contact the reporters on this story: Tony Czuczka in Berlin at aczuczka@bloomberg.net . Anchalee Worrachate in London at aworrachate@bloomberg.net

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Asia Stocks, Euro Drop on Japan Economy, Europe Debt; Commodities Rebound

May 19, 2010

By James Poole and Shani Raja May 20 (Bloomberg) — Asia stocks dropped to near a six- month low after slower-than-estimated growth in Japan caused shares in Tokyo to slide for the second day. The euro fell after climbing yesterday and commodities rallied from three-month lows. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.7 percent to 113.96 at 12:43 p.m. in Tokyo and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average shed 0.8 percent to 10,101.08. Standard & Poor’s Index futures gained 0.2 percent after the U.S. benchmark fell 0.5 percent yesterday. The euro lost 0.4 percent versus the dollar. Copper rose 2.8 percent. While Japan’s economy grew at the fastest pace in three quarters, the 4.9 percent expansion was less the 5.5 percent median forecast of 21 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Finance Minister Naoto Kan warned the economy was in a deflationary state. Investors are jittery after Germany’s decision to ban naked short-selling on sovereign debt and some financial stocks. “Doubts over Europe’s ability to keep its own house in order remain, along with concerns about the robustness of global growth,” said Tim Schroeders , who helps manage about $1.1 billion at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. “It’s difficult for investors to swim against the tide.” More shares dropped than gained on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index , which headed for its lowest close since Nov. 27. Today’s Japan growth report showed more than half of the expansion came from trade. Consumer spending grew 0.3 percent in the first quarter, slowing from the previous period’s 0.7 percent gain. Nintendo, Toyota Nintendo Co. , which gets 34 percent of its revenue in Europe, dropped 2.5 percent in Osaka. Toyota Motor Corp. slumped 2 percent as the Tokyo Shimbun newspaper reported the company will recall its Passo subcompacts in Japan to fix engine problems. BHP Billiton Ltd. , the world’s largest mining company, gained 0.5 percent in Sydney after commodities advanced. Crude oil for June delivery climbed 1.2 percent to $70.72 a barrel, the second day of gains. Copper for delivery in three months rebounded to $6,690 per metric ton after slumping 2.8 percent yesterday. Singapore’s economy expanded at a faster pace than initially estimated last quarter. Gross domestic product grew an annualized 38.6 percent from the previous three months, more than the median estimate for a 33.4 percent increase in a Bloomberg News survey of eight economists. The euro fell against the dollar and yen on concern the pace of Europe’s economic recovery will slow as governments take measures to cut spending to stem the debt crisis. German Talks German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble host talks on financial regulation today in Berlin. The euro slid to a four-year low yesterday after Germany banned naked short-selling on sovereign debt and some financial stocks. Euro area policy makers last week unveiled an unprecedented loan package worth nearly $1 trillion and a program of bond purchases to forestall defaults of the region’s most indebted countries, including Greece, Spain and Portugal. The euro fell to $1.2364 against the dollar and posted a similar decline to 113.44 against the yen. The Conference Board’s index of U.S. leading indicators probably rose 0.2 percent in April, the smallest gain since March 2009, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Other reports today will show jobless claims were little changed last week and manufacturing in the Philadelphia region grew this month, separate Bloomberg surveys show. The cost of insuring Asia-Pacific bonds against default increased, reversing an earlier drop, as Asian stocks and the euro fell on concern Europe’s debt crisis will spread. Bond Risk The Markit iTraxx Asia index of credit-default swaps on 50 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan increased 1 basis point to 142 basis points as of 9:55 a.m. in Singapore, after dropping 7 basis points, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. South Korea’s won weakened 0.7 percent to 1,173.55 after the currency’s slide beyond its 200-day moving average increased concern more losses were likely. The currency reached 1,176.43, the weakest level since Feb. 5. To contact the reporters for this story: James Poole in Singapore jpoole4@bloomberg.net ; Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net .

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Stocks, Commodities Slide as Euro Hits Four-Year Low on German Trading Ban

May 19, 2010

By Patrick Chu May 19 (Bloomberg) — Stocks around the world dropped and commodities fell as the euro traded near a four-year low after Germany banned speculators from some bets against government bonds and banks. Treasuries and German bunds rallied. The MSCI World Index lost 1.2 percent to 1,098.65 at 9:25 a.m. in London. Standard & Poor’s 500 futures fell 0.7 percent, trimming losses from a 1.1 percent decline during Asia trading. The euro was little changed against the dollar after weakening below $1.22 for the first time since April 2006. Ten-year U.S. note yields slid 2 basis points to 3.33 percent and 10-year bund yields fell 5 basis points to 2.77 percent. Oil slumped to a seven-month low near $68 a barrel and copper dropped 1.9 percent. German Chancellor Angela Merkel ’s government rattled investors with the new regulations by raising concerns they won’t be able to hedge their European holdings or sell assets as the region’s debt crisis worsens. The BaFin markets regulator banned investors from naked short sales — speculating on declines in companies they don’t own — for 10 banks and insurers, as well as naked credit-default swaps on euro-area government bonds starting today. “It almost looked panicked, which further undermines confidence in the markets,” said Michael O’Rourke , chief market strategist at BTIG LLC in Yardley, Pennsylvania, which serves institutional investors. “They’ve done as poor a job as one can do in delivering a message.” The rules hurt demand for European assets. The euro, which has depreciated 15 percent against the dollar this year, weakened to as low as $1.2144 before recovering at $1.2179. The pound touched a 13-month low of $1.4278 and the yen gained against all 16 major counterparts. The German ban will last until March 31, 2011, BaFin said yesterday in a statement. Concern Increases “If you don’t feel like you can sell bonds and equities in Europe, you’re left with selling the euro to express a negative view,” said Greg Gibbs , a foreign-exchange strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Sydney. The ban “creates a view that the authorities sense bigger problems than what may appear on the surface, creating more nervousness and fear.” The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.3 percent to 114.87. The Stoxx Europe 600 decreased 2 percent to 246.26. The Asia benchmark has declined 11 percent from its high for the year on April 15, entering a so-called correction, as Europe’s debt crisis and concern China will quell inflation eroded investor confidence. Almost seven shares fell in the index for every two that rose. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index retreated 1.8 percent. South Korea’s Kospi Index slumped 0.8 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 1.7 percent. Asian Exporters Nippon Sheet Glass Co. , which gets 42 percent of its revenue from Europe, tumbled 4 percent to 242 yen in Tokyo as a stronger yen dimmed the earnings prospects for Japan’s exporters. Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. cut its rating on the stock to “neutral” from “outperform.” Canon Inc. , a camera maker that counts Europe as its largest market, retreated 1.3 percent to 3,925 yen. Materials companies posted the biggest declines among the MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s 10 industry groups. Woodside Petroleum Ltd. , Australia’s second-largest oil and gas producer, dropped 1.9 percent in Sydney to A$42.25 after oil retreated for a seventh consecutive day, falling 1.6 percent in New York. Rio Tinto Group , the world’s third-largest mining company, fell 1.5 percent to A$62.88. Banks Fall Financial-services companies dropped as European deficit concerns caused the cost of protecting Asia-Pacific corporate and sovereign bonds from non-payment to rise. HSBC Holdings Plc slumped 1.7 percent to HK$72.15 in Hong Kong. Commonwealth Bank of Australia fell 2.1 percent to A$51.52 in Sydney. The Markit iTraxx Asia index of credit-default swaps on 50 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan rose 10 basis points to 131.5 basis points, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc prices show. Guangzhou R&F Properties Co. , the biggest real estate company in the southern Chinese city, dropped 4.3 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. downgraded Chinese developers. Shimao Property Holdings Ltd., controlled by billionaire Xu Rongmao, lost 3.2 percent. Yanlord Land Group Ltd. declined 3.6 percent. The drops followed losses in the U.S., where the German ban overwhelmed a 1 percent rally in the S&P 500 triggered by better-than-estimated housing starts and results at Wal-Mart Stores Inc. S&P 500 futures fell 0.7 percent, indicating a lower market opening today. Short Selling BaFin said it will prohibit trading in credit swaps on euro-area governments that aren’t used to hedge against losses in the event the government defaults. The regulator said it was taking the step because of “exceptional volatility” in euro- area bonds. “Massive” short-selling was leading to excessive price movements which “could endanger the stability of the entire financial system.” While short sellers borrow assets and sell them, betting the price will fall and they’ll be able to buy them later at a lower price, in naked short selling traders never borrow the assets, so the wagers are unlimited. “This is a mistake of a serious fundamental nature and of severe consequence,” Mark Grant , managing director of Southwest Securities Inc., in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, said in a note to institutional clients. Germany is making “an obvious attempt to control financial markets across the globe by this action just as they plead for investors to provide funding,” he said. To contact the reporter on this story: Patrick Chu in Tokyo at pachu@bloomberg.net ;

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Stocks, Commodities Fall as Euro Hits Four-Year Low on German Trading Ban

May 18, 2010

By Patrick Chu May 19 (Bloomberg) — Asia stocks dropped to a three-month low and metals tumbled after Germany banned speculators from some bets against government bonds and financial institutions. Treasuries rallied. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.3 percent to 114.95 at 12:55 p.m. in Tokyo. Standard & Poor’s 500 futures fell 0.6 percent following a 1.4 percent decline in the index yesterday. The euro weakened below $1.22 for the first time since April 17, 2006 before recovering. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes slid 2 basis points to 3.33 percent. Oil slumped to a seven-month low below $68 a barrel and copper dropped as much as 2.8 percent. German Chancellor Angela Merkel ’s government shook investor confidence with the new regulations. The nation’s BaFin markets regulator banned investors from naked short sales — speculating on declines of stocks they don’t own — for 10 banks and insurers, as well as naked credit-default swaps on euro-area government bonds starting today. “It almost looked panicked, which further undermines confidence in the markets,” said Michael O’Rourke , chief market strategist at BTIG LLC in Yardley, Pennsylvania, which serves institutional investors. “They’ve done as poor a job as one can do in delivering a message.” The rules hurt demand for European assets on concern that investors will face challenges hedging their holdings or selling assets. The euro weakened to as low as $1.2144 before recovering at $1.2217. The pound slumped to a 13-month low of $1.4278 and the yen gained against all 16 major counterparts. The German ban will last until March 31, 2011, BaFin said yesterday in an e- mailed statement. Concern Increases “If you don’t feel like you can sell bonds and equities in Europe, you’re left with selling the euro to express a negative view,” said Greg Gibbs , a foreign-exchange strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Sydney. The ban “creates a view that the authorities sense bigger problems than what may appear on the surface, creating more nervousness and fear.” The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has declined 11 percent from its high for the year on April 15 as Europe’s debt crisis and concern China will quell inflation eroded investor confidence. A decline of 10 percent is the level some analysts refer to as a correction. All stock markets in the Asia Pacific region fell. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 0.9 percent. South Korea’s Kospi Index slumped 1.4 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 1.4 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index retreated 1 percent. Share Movers Nippon Sheet Glass Co. , which gets 42 percent of its revenue from Europe, tumbled 3.6 percent to 243 yen in Tokyo as a stronger yen dimmed the earnings prospects for Japan’s exporters. Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. cut its rating on the stock to “neutral” from “outperform.” Canon Inc. , a camera maker that counts Europe as its largest market, retreated 1.1 percent to 3,930 yen. Materials companies posted the biggest declines among the MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s 10 industry groups. Woodside Petroleum Ltd. , Australia’s second-largest oil and gas producer, dropped 1.3 percent in Sydney to A$42.50 after oil retreated for a seventh consecutive day. Crude oil for June delivery declined as much as 1.9 percent in New York. Rio Tinto Group , the world’s third-largest mining company, fell 1.7 percent to A$62.76. Banks Fall Financial-services companies dropped as European deficit concerns caused the cost of protecting Asia-Pacific corporate and sovereign bonds from non-payment to rise. The Markit iTraxx Asia index of 50 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan rose 10 basis points to 131.5 basis points, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc prices show. HSBC Holdings Plc slumped 1.3 percent to HK$72.45 in Hong Kong. Commonwealth Bank of Australia , fell 1.8 percent to A$51.70 in Sydney. Guangzhou R&F Properties Co. , the biggest real estate company in the southern Chinese city, dropped 1.3 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. downgraded Chinese developers. Shimao Property Holdings Ltd., controlled by billionaire Xu Rongmao, lost 1.2 percent. Yanlord Land Group Ltd. declined 1 percent. Short Selling Short selling involves the sale of borrowed securities in the hope of profiting by buying them later at a lower price and returning them to the owner. When securities are sold naked, the trader fails to borrow the assets before sending an order to sell. BaFin will prohibit trading in credit swaps on euro-area governments that aren’t used to hedge against losses in the event the government defaults, the regulator said. BaFin said it was taking the step because of “exceptional volatility” in euro-area bonds. “Massive” short-selling was leading to excessive price movements which “could endanger the stability of the entire financial system.” “This is a mistake of a serious fundamental nature and of severe consequence,” Mark Grant , managing director of Southwest Securities Inc., in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, said in a note to institutional clients. Germany is making “an obvious attempt to control financial markets across the globe by this action just as they plead for investors to provide funding,” he said. The MSCI World Index of stocks in 23 developed nations slipped 0.7 percent, erasing a 1.3 percent rally. European financial markets closed before BaFin posted the ban. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index ended the session up 1.3 percent. To contact the reporter on this story: Patrick Chu in Tokyo at pachu@bloomberg.net ;

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Doubling Bonus Taxes in U.K. Sends British Bankers to Accountants, Lawyers

May 17, 2010

By Andrew MacAskill and Jon Menon May 17 (Bloomberg) — U.K. bankers , faced with a potential doubling in tax on the stock component of their bonuses, are asking lawyers and accountants if they can escape the plans. The coalition government said last week it may raise capital gains tax from 18 percent for non-business assets. Bringing it into line with income tax, which has a top rate of 50 percent, would more than double the levy on stock awards. “This will affect thousands of people in the City,” Mike Warburton , a senior tax partner at Grant Thornton in Bristol, England, said in an interview. “If they are going to tax profits on share schemes, then that will double your tax bill.” The decision may undercut efforts by the Financial Services Authority to make bankers take a greater proportion of their bonuses in stock. The FSA is trying to ensure pay is aligned with the interests of shareholders following the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. “We have had a number of enquiries,” said Patrick Stevens , a tax partner at accounting firm Ernst & Young LLP . “In the next few weeks, lots of executives will say to their employers that they ought to be able to cash-in on any gains.” The Conservative party last week adopted the Liberal Democrat-backed capital gains policy as part of the coalition deal. The tax rise will be used to raise the threshold at which low earners start paying income tax. “Increasing the rate of capital gains cuts across that policy initiative to encourage people to receive bonuses in share form,” said Neal Todd , a tax partner at London-based law firm Berwin Leighton Paisner. “Many people who are sitting on large potential gains will be seeing if they can offload those shares rather quickly to trigger their gain.” ‘Business Assets’ The new government is committed to a budget statement before the end of next month, according to Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne. That should state whether bankers’ shareholdings will be classified as business or non-business assets and so liable to the tax increase. “The critical thing is going to be whether acquiring shares in the company you work for is going to be treated as business assets or not,” said Sylvie Watts , a compensation lawyer at London-based Allen & Overy LLP. “For policy reasons, the new government may want the higher rate of tax to apply.” The new government, the first British coalition in 65 years, is planning to raise taxes and cut spending as it seeks to narrow Britain’s record budget deficit . David Cameron “Everyone recognizes there is a problem,” Prime Minister David Cameron told the BBC’s Andrew Marr show yesterday. “When you have a capital gains tax rate of 18 percent and a top rate of income tax at 50 percent, you’ll find people finding all sorts of ways to treat income as capital gains,” he said. “I want to light the flames of entrepreneurialism in Britain and get people investing in businesses.” The tax is most likely to take effect in April next year and may be applied at 50 percent for higher earners, according to Richard Mannion, tax director at Smith & Williamson in London. “Shares in your employer used to get the lower rate of capital gains tax,” John Whiting , tax policy director at the London-based Chartered Institute of Taxation , a professional body that promotes the study and practice of taxation. “ I wouldn’t guarantee that it still will.” Gartmore Plc Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Meyer said on May 14 that the rise in capital gains tax may lead to investors selling assets to lock in gains before any changes are made. “You may see an increase in redemptions then reinvestment as a result of that,” Meyer said. “So there may perhaps be a higher turnover in the assets under management levels.” To contact the reporters on this story: Andrew MacAskill in London at amacaskill@bloomberg.net Jon Menon in London at jmenon1@bloomberg.net

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Cameron Refuses to Rule Out Increasing U.K. Sales Tax in Emergency Budget

May 16, 2010

By Kitty Donaldson May 16 (Bloomberg) — U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron refused to rule out an increase in value-added tax in his coalition government’s emergency budget, due by the end of June. In an interview with BBC television’s Andrew Marr program, his first since becoming leader of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition, Cameron was pressed on whether he would need to raise the sales tax from its current rate of 17.5 percent to help narrow the U.K.’s record budget deficit. “We said before the election, during the election and I am happy to say it now, that spending should bear the brunt of the burden,” Cameron said. “So that is not something we plan to do,” he said of a VAT rise. Even so, he stopped short of explicitly ruling out an increase, telling Marr, “You will have to wait for the first 50-day budget.” With the U.K. deficit approaching that of Greece at almost 12 percent of economic output, Cameron is under pressure to reduce borrowing and pledged to hold a budget within 50 days of coming to power in the May 6 election. The Conservatives favor the burden of deficit-reduction being split 4-1 between spending cuts and tax increases. VAT raised 85 billion pounds ($124 billion) in the financial year through March 2009, accounting for 16 percent of total revenue. Cameron said Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will tomorrow set out “a proper independent audit of government spending,” the first step to tackling the hole in the nation’s finances. ‘Bad Behavior’ “What we have seen so far are just individual examples of very bad practice and frankly just bad behavior; spending decisions taken in the last year or so of a Labour government that no rational government would have done,” Cameron said. “Giving something like 75 percent of senior civil servants bonuses after everything that has happened — that’s not a fiscal stimulus, it’s a crazy thing to do.” Britain has not had a coalition government since 1945 and Cameron was questioned on how well his Conservatives are working with their Liberal Democrat partners. He described Liberal Democrat leader and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg as “clearly part of the inner core,” adding that the government will publish a fuller statement on its coalition agreement within “the next couple of weeks.” “I think probably more important, there’s no document in the world, there’s no agreement in the world that’ll keep you all together,” Cameron said. “In the end it’s going to be people working together and the relationship between me and Nick Clegg, the relationship of Cabinet ministers with each other.” Kennedy’s Refusal Even so, divisions emerged within the Liberal Democrats over their coalition with Conservatives. Former leader Charles Kennedy said in a newspaper article published today he refused to vote for the deal when it was put to a meeting of party lawmakers during coalition negotiations on May 11. Writing in The Observer , Kennedy said he had favored an alliance with the Labour Party, which formed the outgoing government. A ComRes Ltd. poll for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday newspapers published today shows that 34 percent of those who voted Liberal Democrat at the May 6 election think Clegg “sold out” the party’s principles. ComRes interviewed 1,010 voters on May 12-13. A special conference of the Liberal Democrats in Birmingham, central England, today “overwhelmingly” endorsed the coalition deal, the party said in an e-mailed statement. ‘Taking Risks’ “I know the stakes are high — for me personally, as well as the party — but I came into politics to change things, and that means taking risks,” Clegg told the conference. “Real, big change never comes easy, so it would simply be wrong for us to let this chance of real change pass us by.” The Sunday Telegraph newspaper reported today that Cameron intends to ask Labour lawmaker Frank Field to lead a review into levels of poverty in Britain. He has also asked Will Hutton , an economist and former newspaper editor, to head a separate review into pay inequality, the newspaper said. The Telegraph also reported that John Browne , the former chief executive officer of BP Plc, who sits in the upper House of Lords as a cross-bencher, attached to no party, has been approached to take on a role “scrutinizing” government departments. To contact the reporter on this story: Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net .

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Cameron Refuses to Rule Out Increasing Value-Added Tax in Emergency Budget

May 16, 2010

By Kitty Donaldson May 16 (Bloomberg) — U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron refused to rule out an increase in value-added tax in his coalition government’s emergency budget, due by the end of June. In an interview with BBC television’s Andrew Marr program, his first since becoming leader of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition, Cameron was pressed on whether he would need to raise the sales tax from its current rate of 17.5 percent to help narrow the U.K.’s record budget deficit. “We said before the election, during the election and I am happy to say it now, that spending should bear the brunt of the burden,” Cameron said. “So that is not something we plan to do,” he said of a VAT rise. Even so, he stopped short of explicitly ruling out an increase, telling Marr, “You will have to wait for the first 50-day budget.” With the U.K. deficit approaching that of Greece at almost 12 percent of economic output, Cameron is under pressure to reduce borrowing and pledged to hold a budget within 50 days of coming to power in the May 6 election. The Conservatives favor the burden of deficit-reduction being split 4-1 between spending cuts and tax increases. VAT raised 85 billion pounds ($124 billion) in the financial year through March 2009, accounting for 16 percent of total revenue. Cameron said Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will tomorrow set out “a proper independent audit of government spending,” the first step to tackling the hole in the nation’s finances. ‘Bad Behavior’ “What we have seen so far are just individual examples of very bad practice and frankly just bad behavior; spending decisions taken in the last year or so of a Labour government that no rational government would have done,” Cameron said. “Giving something like 75 percent of senior civil servants bonuses after everything that has happened — that’s not a fiscal stimulus, it’s a crazy thing to do.” Britain has not had a coalition government since 1974 and Cameron was questioned on how well his Conservatives are working with their Liberal Democrat partners. He described Liberal Democrat leader and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg as “clearly part of the inner core,” adding that the government will publish a fuller statement on its coalition agreement within “the next couple of weeks.” “I think probably more important, there’s no document in the world, there’s no agreement in the world that’ll keep you all together,” Cameron said. “In the end it’s going to be people working together and the relationship between me and Nick Clegg, the relationship of Cabinet ministers with each other.” Kennedy’s Refusal Even so, divisions are emerging within the Liberal Democrats over their coalition with Conservatives. Former leader Charles Kennedy said in a newspaper article published today he refused to vote for the deal when it was put to a meeting of party lawmakers during coalition negotiations on May 11. Writing in The Observer , Kennedy said he had favored an alliance with the Labour Party, which formed the outgoing government. A ComRes Ltd. poll for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday newspapers published today shows that 34 percent of those who voted Liberal Democrat at the May 6 election think Clegg “sold out” the party’s principles. ComRes interviewed 1,010 voters on May 12-13. Today Clegg will address a special conference of the Liberal Democrats in Birmingham, central England. The meeting may vote against endorsing Clegg’s decision to enter into coalition with Cameron, though it has no power to overturn the agreement. The Sunday Telegraph newspaper reported today that Cameron intends to ask Labour lawmaker Frank Field to lead a review into levels of poverty in Britain. He has also asked Will Hutton , an economist and former newspaper editor, to head a separate review into pay inequality, the newspaper said. The Telegraph also reported that John Browne , the former chief executive officer of BP Plc, who sits in the upper House of Lords as a cross-bencher, attached to no party, has been approached to take on a role “scrutinizing” government departments. To contact the reporter on this story: Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net .

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ECB `Shock Troops’ Go It Alone as Investors Question Adequacy of EU Plan

May 11, 2010

By Emma Ross-Thomas and Simon Kennedy May 11 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet is buying time for the euro region as investors speculate on whether the $1 trillion bailout plan is enough to stop the sovereign debt crisis. Spanish and Portuguese bonds have rebounded as the ECB snapped up government debt, reversing a rout that threatened the nations’ ability to borrow. At the same time, the euro fell and stock indexes pared yesterday’s gains on concern about how indebted countries will cut deficits and access aid if needed. “The game plan is clearly to use the ECB as shock troops to force peripheral bond yields down and rebuild market confidence,” said Marco Annunziata , chief economist at Unicredit Group in London. “If that works, then there might be no need to activate the stabilization fund.” The risk for euro region finance ministers is that they fail to convince investors that their mechanism, hammered out over a weekend of marathon talks, can prevent the bloc’s first default and force Spain and Portugal to cut their deficits. Officials agreed yesterday to set up a 750 billion euro ($953 billion) financial aid package, backed up by ECB bond purchases. “We will continue to have relatively volatile markets until we get a better understanding” of the plan’s implications, said Gary Cohn , president and chief operating officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. at an investor conference in New York today. Homework For now, governments across Europe’s southern periphery are facing easier borrowing costs. The extra yield that investors demand to hold Spanish 10-year bonds over German bunds has dropped by almost half to 98 basis points since the package was announced. It hit a 14-year high on May 7. The Portuguese spread has shrunk nearly 200 basis points to 161 basis points. Central banks bought those bonds for a second day today, traders said. The ECB’s action “buys them the time to do the homework they have to do,” said Andrew Bosomworth , Munich-based head of portfolio management at Pacific Investment Management Co. While the EU plan pushes governments to get their budgets under control, “there are question marks over whether countries can do that or even if they’re solvent.” Under the bailout package, euro region governments will offer guarantees of 440 billion euros to a special fund. The facility will sell debt and use that cash to buy the bonds of euro-area countries in need. Another 60 billion euros will come from the European Union’s budget and 250 billion euros from the International Monetary Fund. Fleshed Out “What the finance ministers proposed, while a useful idea, still very much needs to be fleshed out,” said Julian Callow , chief European economist at Barclays Capital, in London. The IMF hasn’t made a “blanket commitment” to contribute to the package, even as it has “ample funds” to take part, John Lipsky , the lender’s first deputy managing director, said yesterday. Doubts remain as to whether the mechanism, which faces public opposition in Germany, will face legal challenges as national governments work to write the procedure into law. Finance ministers haven’t made clear what conditions will be applied to countries seeking aid and what happens if they fail to meet demands to reorder their budgets. Officials justified the unprecedented rescue plan citing an article of the EU’s treaty that allows countries to help each other in “exceptional” circumstances. “The enacting of the plan could have some issues,” said Stephane Deo , chief European economist at UBS AG in London. “There are some huge legal issues.” Euro Shield As German’s cabinet backed the rescue deal today, Bild, the country’s top-selling newspaper, slammed Chancellor Angela Merkel for helping its neighbors and turning Germans into “Europe’s jerks.” European leaders “robbed the euro of its best preventive shield, the ban on aid and an independent central bank, with a vague promise of coming up soon with a tougher mechanism to enforce fiscal good sense,” the Frankfurter Allgemeine newspaper said in an editorial. Still, the market reaction points to “trust” in the program, said Deo. While there’s still a risk of Greece having to restructure its debt, the ECB’s bond-buying has helped Spain and Portugal by preventing higher borrowing costs translating into even higher deficits, said Klaus Baader , co-head of European economic research at Societe Generale in London. “The risks in Spain and Portugal were related mostly to the risk of a sharp increase in long-term interest rates,” he said. Spanish Plan Even with the drop in borrowing costs easing pressure on governments’ coffers, officials still need to convince investors they can cut deficits at a time when austerity measures in Greece have prompted violent protests. As part of the May 10 bailout plan, Spain and Portugal pledged deeper deficit reductions, and Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero will tell lawmakers in Madrid tomorrow where the cuts will fall. He speaks at 9 a.m. local time. Making the job harder, once-booming Spain is expected to contract for a second full year in 2010 while Portugal will grow 0.3 percent as households pay down two of the region’s largest private debt burdens. Both economies may grow less than 1 percent in 2011, according to the IMF . “The plan buys time, removes the threat of an immediate funding crisis, but does not alter the macro-economic fundamentals at the heart of the problem,” Paul Marson , chief investment officer of Lombard Odier Private Bank, said. It’s “rather like buying a drunk another drink so that he may defer the hangover.” To contact the reporter on this story: Emma Ross-Thomas in Madrid at erossthomas@bloomberg.net Simon Kennedy in Paris at skennedy4@bloomnerg.net

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Conservatives, Liberal Democrats Focus on U.K. Deficit in Coalition Talks

May 10, 2010

By Robert Hutton and Kitty Donaldson May 10 (Bloomberg) — Conservative and Liberal Democrat spokesmen said they’re making progress on an agreement to forge a government after the U.K.’s inconclusive May 6 vote. “The negotiating teams are working really well together,” William Hague , the former Conservative leader, said after a 90- minute meeting today, the fourth with lawmakers from the third- biggest party. “Bear with us a little longer,” Nick Clegg , the Liberal Democrat leader, told reporters. Any potential agreement would focus on deficit cutting, spokesmen for the parties said yesterday, as they emphasized common ground in a bid to reassure investors. The jockeying threatened to roil markets as Europe grapples with a sovereign- debt crisis and Britain faces a record budget shortfall. “This was the worst possible time for this,” said Stuart Thomson , who helps manage the equivalent of about $100 billion at Ignis Asset Management in Glasgow. “We have a very febrile atmosphere over sovereign debt. Our view is that sterling is undervalued, but without a stable political situation and Conservative fiscal policy, it could go down further.” The pound added 1.3 percent to $1.4998 at 3:15 p.m. in London. The 10-year gilt yield rose 8 basis points to 3.9 percent. Sky News television reported this afternoon that an outline of a deal was in place. ‘Buoyant, Upbeat’ Liberal Democrat lawmaker Mike Hancock told reporters as he left a meeting with his colleagues that he hoped there would be a decision on a deal tonight. “The mood is very buoyant, upbeat,” Hancock said. “People have been critical of each other and have differing views, but nothing spectacular.” The negotiations were triggered by the first election since 1974 that failed to produce a majority. Gordon Brown , who remains prime minister and Labour leader, had his first post- election meeting with Clegg yesterday. “The markets accept that we have got a hung parliament and there has got to be some discussion,” Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling told the BBC’s Today radio program today. He said he hoped the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives can make a decision “by the end of the day” whether they “can do a deal or not,” although discussions that go into tomorrow are “not the end of the world.” Debt Outlook U.K. government debt will rise to 77 percent of gross domestic product this year and may approach 100 percent by 2014, Standard & Poor’s says. The rating company cut its outlook on the U.K.’s AAA grade from stable in May 2009, saying debt may rise to a level incompatible with its top assessment. The Conservatives won 306 districts in the vote, a net gain of 97 from the previous election in 2005. Labour had a net loss of 91 seats to end with 258. The Liberal Democrats lost five seats and now have 57 members of the 650-seat House of Commons. Clegg said Conservative leader David Cameron was entitled to the first chance to form a government since he won the most votes and Parliament seats. The parties disagreed during the campaign over Cameron’s proposals to cut spending this year and lower inheritance taxes and Clegg’s bid to eliminate income taxes on those with the lowest incomes. Economic stability and reducing a deficit forecast by the European Union at 12 percent of GDP this year would form the “central part” of an agreement, Hague told reporters yesterday. ‘Shift in Tone’ “The most likely outcome is a deal between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats,” said Tim Bale , author of “The Conservative Party From Thatcher to Cameron.” “There has been a shift in tone, emphasizing what they have in common compared to their differences. Brown will be gone by mid-week unless it all collapses.” The scope of a deal ranges from a coalition, with Liberal Democrats in the Cabinet and agreeing to support Cameron in Parliament, to a “confidence and supply” agreement. In that arrangement, Clegg promises not to oppose the Conservatives on budgets or any issue where defeat would force an election. Clegg signaled that the parties may overcome their differences on overhauling the voting system. During the campaign, Clegg said “electoral reform is a first step which any government of whatever composition will need to introduce.” Yesterday, he included “fundamental political reform” at the end of a five-point list of “big changes” that will guide his party. Smaller Parties Brown has offered Clegg a referendum on the electoral system. Even if they agree on other matters, Labour and the Liberal Democrats together wouldn’t have a majority, and would need to bring in two other smaller parties. And even if that could be achieved, Brown may not be able to deliver his own party. In his 2 1/2 years as Labour leader, Brown has struggled to unite it behind him, fending off at least three coups. Two Labour lawmakers, Kate Hoey and John Mann , have already called for Brown to step aside. “Gordon Brown seems the least well-placed leader” to lead a coalition, said Jane Green, a lecturer in politics at Manchester University. Cameron has his own problems with his party, having failed to deliver a Parliamentary majority. He’ll face lawmakers at a meeting in London today at 6 p.m. “I would rather be in a minority government,” said lawmaker Graham Brady , who suggested another election may be in the offing before a full term is completed. “Realistically, there’s not much more prospect of whatever arrangement is reached lasting for very long.” To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net ; Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net .

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Video: Merkel’s Party Punished in Election, Loses Upper House

May 10, 2010

May 10 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Philipp Encz reports on the election in Germany’s North Rhine-Westphalia, where Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrat party suffered its worst result since World War II, losing control of parliament’s upper house in Berlin.

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Merkel’s Party Plunges in Key State Vote After Criticism on Greek Crisis

May 10, 2010

By Brian Parkin May 10 (Bloomberg) — Chancellor Angela Merkel ’s party plunged to its worst result since World War II in Germany’s most populous state, losing control of parliament’s upper house in Berlin, as voters punished her reversal on aid for Greece. The result in a regional election in North Rhine-Westphalia may cost Merkel’s Christian Democrats their hold on power in the state, and robs Merkel of her majority in the upper chamber, the Bundesrat , undermining her ability to cut taxes and extend the lifespan of nuclear-power plants. Officials in Merkel’s CDU blamed the party’s showing on German loans for Greece of as much as 22.4 billion euros ($28.8 billion) passed by parliament on May 7 in the face of public opposition. Merkel was criticized at home and abroad for first refusing to rush to aid Greece, then pressing lawmakers to back Germany’s contribution to a 110 billion-euro lifeline. “Merkel is vulnerable,” Almut Moeller, head of European policy at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, said in an interview. “After her record of dithering over help for Greece, she really needs to make a show now of strong, resolute policy in Brussels to help stem the crisis from spreading further. The last thing the euro-zone needs at this point is weak German leadership.” Preliminary Results The Chancellor’s Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, took 34.6 percent in yesterday’s election, down more than 10 percentage points from the last vote in 2005 and the party’s worst showing in North Rhine-Westphalia since the first postwar election in 1947, preliminary results show. The CDU’s Free Democratic junior coalition partner got 6.7 percent, giving the two parties a combined 80 seats in the 181-seat assembly. The opposition Social Democrats took 34.5 percent and their traditional allies in the Green Party 12.1 percent. That’s equivalent to 90 seats, one short of a majority, according to ZDF projections. The anti-capitalist Left Party got 5.6 percent, winning their first seats in the parliament. Hermann Groehe, general secretary of Merkel’s party, in a ZDF television interview, attributed the loss in North Rhine- Westphalia to “concerns over the stability of the euro and the situation in Greece.” The state’s defeated CDU prime minister, Juergen Ruettgers , also blamed Greece for the results. “This is a double blow to confidence in Merkel’s party: a rout at regional level that’s sent a huge wave to the national coalition,” Hans-Juergen Hoffmann , managing director of Berlin- based polling company Psephos, said in an interview. “Her own bedrock CDU voters are worried. The crisis is spinning out of control and confidence in her ability to tame it is evaporating.” National Clout North Rhine-Westphalia , known as NRW, which includes the western cities of Cologne and Dortmund and the Ruhr industrial area, has national clout. Home to about 18 million of Germany’s 82 million inhabitants, plus E.ON AG , the world’s largest utility, and ThyssenKrupp AG , the country’s biggest steelmaker, it’s been governed since 2005 by a coalition of CDU and Free Democrats, the same as Merkel’s federal government in Berlin. The regional government is awarded six votes in the 69-vote upper chamber, where Germany’s 16 states are represented. A change of administration would cost Merkel her two-vote Bundesrat majority, hurting her ability to pass policy. “This result definitely won’t make it easier for the coalition to push an extension of nuclear energy through the upper house,” Joachim Pfeiffer , CDU parliamentary spokesman for economy and energy, said in an interview. Andrea Nahles , Social Democratic general secretary, said on ZDF that her party will use the Bundesrat to block tax cuts for “people who don’t deserve them.” ‘Warning Shot’ Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle , who leads the Free Democrats nationally, said the result was a “warning shot” that the party will act upon. State elections in North Rhine-Westphalia have traditionally acted as a barometer for national political trends, Nick Matthews , an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, said in a report on May 5. In 2005, the Christian Democratic defeat of the Social Democrats, which had ruled the state since 1966, presaged Merkel’s victory at national elections later that year. In 1995, the Social Democratic-Green coalition in the state was the forerunner of the same configuration of federal government formed by SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in 1998. This time, national politics in the shape of the Greek rescue “spilled over into the NRW vote,” said Manfred Guellner , head of Berlin-based polling company Forsa. Greece ‘Fears’ “Greece has grabbed the headlines and TV, stirring up fears and antagonisms, not least a fear that the euro may unravel,” Guellner said by phone. “Merkel’s leadership in the crisis has not been decisive, leaving an impression that she’s hesitated and failed to put out the fire.” While voters may be largely “ambivalent” toward Greece, Merkel’s handling of the crisis underscores misgivings they already have about her government, Nils Diederich , a politics professor at Berlin’s Free University, said in an interview. “Greece adds to her miserable record of controlling runaway problems, above all the incessant squawking for tax cuts by the Free Democrats,” he said. “The disappointment of the electorate with Merkel’s coalition runs deep.” To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Parkin in Berlin at bparkin@bloomberg.net .

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EU Readies Emergency Fund Said to Be $645 Billion to Fight Off `Wolfpack’

May 9, 2010

By James G. Neuger and Meera Louis May 9 (Bloomberg) — European Union finance ministers pledged to stop a sovereign-debt crisis from shattering confidence in the euro as they held an emergency summit to hammer out a lending mechanism that may be worth around $645 billion. Jolted into action by last week’s slide in the currency to a 14-month low and soaring bond yields in Portugal and Spain, leaders of the 16 euro nations agreed on the backstop yesterday and told ministers to get it ready before Asian markets open. The European facility may be worth around 500 billion euros, said an official familiar with the talks. “We are going to defend the euro,” Spanish Economy Minister Elena Salgado told reporters as she arrived to chair today’s Brussels meeting. “We think we have a duty for more stability for our currency. We will do whatever is necessary.” Europe’s failure to contain Greece’s fiscal crisis triggered a 4.3 percent drop in the euro last week, the biggest weekly decline since the aftermath of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse. It prompted the U.S. and Asia to urge broader steps to prevent a debt crisis from pitching the world back into a recession. President Barack Obama spoke by phone with German Chancellor Angela Merkel for the second time in three days, adding to the international pressure Europe has faced since a hurriedly arranged conference call of Group of Seven finance chiefs on May 7. Obama today emphasized “the importance of the members of the European Union taking resolute steps to build confidence in the markets,” White House spokesman Bill Burton told reporters in Hampton, Virginia. ‘Wolfpack Behavior’ “In the night, when the markets are opening, we cannot afford a disappointment,” said Finance Minister Anders Borg of Sweden, one of 11 EU nations not in the euro. “We now see herd behavior in the markets that are really pack behavior, wolfpack behavior.” European officials declined to disclose the size of the stabilization fund, to be made up of money borrowed by the EU’s central authorities with guarantees by national governments. The meeting started just after 3 p.m. Expectations of decisive action buoyed the euro as trading began in Asia. It jumped more than 1 percent to $1.2897 as of 6:11 a.m. in Sydney, according to pricing from Westpac Banking Corp. Several Alternatives Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, is being represented by Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere after wheelchair-bound Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble , 67, was rushed to a Brussels hospital due to an adverse reaction to new medication. Part of a new lending mechanism could be based on the balance-of-payments aid model that the EU granted to Hungary, Romania and Latvia when their budgets buckled in the financial crisis, said Jacques Cailloux , chief European economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. The initial funding available could be 70 billion euros, he said. “There is some discussion about what the solution will be,” Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager said. “There are several alternatives at the moment.” Separately, European Central Bank council members were slated to hold a teleconference today. “Europe is getting its act together,” said Chris Rupkey , chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “Time will tell if this statement is enough to satisfy the European bond market vigilantes.” Stiffest Test Government officials said they won’t push the independent ECB to, for example, buy government bonds. President Jean-Claude Trichet accelerated the market selloff on May 6 by rejecting that measure. Trichet is in Basel, Switzerland, today for a scheduled meeting of central bankers from the Group of 10 nations. Vice President Lucas Papademos is attending the Brussels talks. With the euro facing the stiffest test since its debut in 1999, the weekend turned into a crisis-management exercise to restore faith in the currency and prevent a European debt crisis from cascading around the world. The purpose is to “decide on a mechanism that enables us to assure the stability of the euro, stability in the zone and, beyond that, stability in financial markets,” French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said. The euro slid to $1.2715 from $1.3293 in the past week, and is down 15 percent since late November. European stocks sank the most in 18 months, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index tumbling 8.8 percent to 237.18. Stability The extra yield that investors demand to hold Greek, Portuguese and Spanish debt instead of benchmark German bonds rose to euro-era highs. The premium on 10-year government bonds jumped as high as 973 basis points for Greece, 354 basis points for Portugal and 173 basis points for Spain. Britain, the EU’s third-largest economy, won’t contribute to a fund to shore up euro countries, though it backs efforts to restore stability, Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said. “When it comes to supporting the euro, that is for the eurogroup countries,” Darling told Sky News. “We need to show again today that by acting together we can stabilize the situation.” At yesterday’s leaders’ summit in Brussels, Germany stepped up calls for a closer monitoring of government finances and more rigorous enforcement of the deficit-limitation rules. The vow to push budget shortfalls below the euro’s 3 percent limit echoes promises that have been regularly broken ever since governments in 1999 set a three-year deadline for achieving balanced budgets. The euro region’s overall deficit is forecast at 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2010 and 6.1 percent in 2011. Consideration Plans for a European credit-rating authority are already under consideration at the European Commission, the bloc’s Brussels-based executive agency. It also is investigating whether ratings companies such as Standard & Poor’s wield too much power over investors’ perceptions of governments. Asked whether steps to stem speculation against government bonds would include restrictions on short sales or credit default swaps, European Commission President Jose Barroso said “some of the points you have mentioned will be contemplated.” The political leadership of the $12 trillion economy yesterday also signed off on a 110 billion-euro ($140 billion) aid package for Greece negotiated by finance ministers last week. So far nine governments have cleared the way for funds to be sent to Athens. To contact the reporters on this story: James G. Neuger in Brussels at jneuger@bloomberg.net ; Meera Louis in Brussels at mlouis1@bloomberg.net .

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Merkel’s Party Loses in Key State Election After Criticism on Greek Crisis

May 9, 2010

By Brian Parkin May 9 (Bloomberg) — Chancellor Angela Merkel ’s party unexpectedly lost control of Germany’s most populous state in a regional election, television projections showed, potentially swinging the balance of power in Berlin and dealing Merkel a blow after criticism of her handling of the Greek crisis. Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, took 34.3 percent in today’s election in North Rhine-Westphalia, and the opposition Social Democrats 34.7 percent, latest projections showed. The Greens took 12.3 percent, the Free Democrats 6.7 percent and the Left Party 5.7 percent, enough to win seats in the state parliament in Dusseldorf for the first time. The results may give the Social Democrats and Greens a slim majority, ending the CDU-led coalition that has governed North Rhine-Westphalia, or NRW, since 2005. That would cost Merkel her majority in the upper house of parliament in Berlin, where Germany’s 16 states are represented. “This is a double blow to confidence in Merkel’s party: a rout at regional level that’s sent a huge wave to the national coalition,” Hans-Juergen Hoffmann , managing director of Berlin- based polling company Psephos, said in an interview. “Her own bedrock CDU voters are worried. The crisis is spinning out of control and confidence in her ability to tame it is evaporating.” Merkel, who was criticized at home and abroad for refusing to rush to aid Greece, welcomed lawmakers’ backing on May 7 for as much as 22.4 billion euros ($28.5 billion) in loans for the debt-laded nation. Euro, Greece Concerns Hermann Groehe, general secretary of Merkel’s party, attributed the loss in North Rhine-Westphalia to “concerns over the stability of the euro and the situation in Greece,” he said on ZDF television. The state’s CDU prime minister, Juergen Ruettgers , also cited Greece for the results. With national polls showing public opposition to the lifeline running high, Greece “spilled over into the NRW vote,” said Manfred Guellner , head of Berlin-based polling company Forsa. “Greece has grabbed the headlines and TV, stirring up fears and antagonisms, not least a fear that the euro may unravel,” Guellner said in a phone interview. “Merkel’s leadership in the crisis has not been decisive, leaving an impression that she’s dithered and failed to put out the fire.” North Rhine-Westphalia has national clout, as home to about 18 million of Germany’s 82 million inhabitants plus E.ON AG , the world’s largest utility, and ThyssenKrupp AG , the country’s biggest steelmaker. A coalition of Merkel’s Christian Democrats and the Free Democrats, the same as the national government in Berlin, has governed in the state capital Dusseldorf since 2005. Upper House Votes With NRW’s six votes in the 69-vote upper chamber at stake, Merkel’s two-vote Bundesrat majority is at risk, ensuring “a large say in federal policy making,” for whoever controls Grace Amerley Annan , a political analyst at IHS Global Insight in London, said in a May 7 note. Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle , who leads the Free Democrats nationally, said the result was a “warning shot” that the party will act upon. State elections in North Rhine-Westphalia have traditionally acted as a barometer for national political trends, Nick Matthews , an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, said in a report on May 5. In 2005, the Christian Democratic defeat of the Social Democrats, which had ruled the state since 1966, presaged Merkel’s victory at national elections later that year. In 1995, the Social Democratic-Green coalition in the state was the forerunner of the same configuration of federal government formed by SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in 1998. Tax Cuts Defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia will cost Merkel the six votes the state is allocated in the upper house, the Bundesrat, threatening her ability to cut taxes, extend the lifespan of nuclear-power plants or overhaul health-care. At present, government parties control 37 of the total 69 Bundesrat votes, two more than the required majority, allowing Merkel to push through contentious legislation such as the bill on Greek aid. While voters may be largely “ambivalent” toward Greece, Merkel’s handling of the crisis underscores misgivings they already have about her government, Nils Diederich , a politics professor at Berlin’s Free University, said in an interview. “Greece adds to her miserable record of controlling runaway problems, above all the incessant squawking for tax cuts by the Free Democrats,” he said. “The disappointment of the electorate with Merkel’s coalition runs deep and any drop in support for her party in NRW can, and probably will, be placed at her door in Berlin.” To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Parkin in Berlin at bparkin@bloomberg.net .

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