conference

Lease Up/Lease Down (May 30 – June 5): HP Laying Off 9,000, Hiring 6,000

May 31, 2010

Editor’s Note: This week, I will be attending the NAREE Conference in Austin, TX, to accept an award for last year’s special report, Landlords Offer Major Perks in Uncertain Market. As a result, Lease Up and Lease Down have been condensed, and will…

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Israel Won’t Join Nuclear-Free Mideast Talks, Calls UN Resolution `Flawed’

May 29, 2010

By Gwen Ackerman May 30 (Bloomberg) — Israel called “deeply flawed” and “hypocritical” a United Nations resolution ratified by 181 countries that calls for a 2012 conference on a nuclear-free Mideast, and said it would not take part in the talks. “Israel is not obligated by the decisions of this conference, which has no authority over Israel,” a statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ’s office distributed to press travelling with him in Toronto said. “It singles out Israel, the Middle East’s only true democracy and the only country threatened with annihilation,” the statement said. “It ignores the realities of the Middle East and the real threats facing the region and the entire world.” Agreement on the 2012 meeting helps the U.S. address a demand of Arab nations as President Barack Obama pressures Iran to halt the pursuit of nuclear technologies that might lead to development of an atomic weapon. Arab states have said Israel has a nuclear arsenal that must be part of the discussion. Israel, which hasn’t confirmed or denied it has nuclear weapons, hasn’t signed the non-proliferation treaty and didn’t attend the UN review conference. The declaration said Israel should ratify the treaty and allow inspection of nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency. June 1 Meeting Netanyahu will discuss the resolution in a meeting scheduled with Obama on June 1, the statement said. “Regarding the practical consequences of this resolution for Israel, we take note of the important clarifications that have been made by the U.S. regarding its policy,” the statement added. Gary Samore , the White House coordinator for arms control, called the naming of Israel in the UN resolution’s text “a negative political symbol” that made it less likely that Israel will attend, or even that the meeting will take place. Obama, in a White House statement May 28, said the U.S. “welcomes the agreements” from the conference, yet will “strongly oppose efforts to single out Israel, and will oppose actions that jeopardize Israel’s national security.” The U.S. backing of the resolution, even after subsequent criticism of the singling out of Israel by the Obama administration, is likely to be detrimental to ties between the allies, said Gerald Steinberg , a political scientist at Bar Ilan University. U.S. Reliability “Clearly for Israel this is another sign that the U.S. is not reliable on key security issues,” Steinberg said by phone. The resolution will also not benefit the indirect Israeli- Palestinian peace talks launched earlier this month as it will make Israel more reluctant to take security risks, he said. Netanyahu canceled a planned trip to attend a nuclear summit in the U.S. in April when it became apparent that it was going to be used as a vehicle by some countries to attack Israel for not being a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is an agreement between the five original nuclear powers — the U.S., Britain, China, France and Russia — not to spread the weapons and eventually to disarm, in exchange for a pledge from other nations not to join the arms race. At the same time, the non- nuclear nations were accorded the right to develop peaceful programs. The proposal for Middle East talks in 2012 says all nations will meet “on the establishment” of a zone free of weapons of mass destruction “on the basis of arrangements freely arrived at” by them all. In the past two months, Obama has signed an arms-reduction treaty with Russia, pledged to limit the potential U.S. use of atomic weapons and won commitments from 46 nations to protect stockpiles of uranium and plutonium. To contact the reporter on this story: Gwen Ackerman in Jerusalem at gackerman@bloomberg.net .

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U.S. Consumer Confidence Rises to Highest Level Since 2008 on Job Optimism

May 25, 2010

By Courtney Schlisserman May 25 (Bloomberg) — Confidence among U.S. consumers increased in May to the highest level since March 2008 as Americans became more upbeat about job prospects. The Conference Board’s confidence index rose to 63.3, exceeding the highest estimate in a Bloomberg News survey, from a revised 57.7 in April, figures from the New York-based private research group showed. The gauge was forecast to rise to 58.5, according to the survey median. A measure of expectations surged to the highest level since August 2007. Pessimism is beginning to fade as the expansion that began in the middle of 2009 begins to create the jobs needed to encourage Americans to spend. Confidence is still at risk of stalling as Europe’s debt crisis pushes stock prices lower and chips away at household balance sheets. “The underlying economy is improving, job opportunities are growing, and that’s going to continue,” Robert Stein , a senior economist at First Trust Portfolios LP in Wheaton, Illinois, said before the report. “On the other hand we have uncertainty in the financial markets and Europe.” Economists forecast confidence would rise from a previously reported 57.9 in April, according to the median of 72 projections in the Bloomberg survey. Estimates ranged from 53 to 62.8. The Conference Board’s measure of present conditions increased to 30.2 this month, the highest since December 2008, from 28.2 in April. The gauge of expectations for the next six months surged to 85.3 from 77.4. Labor Outlook The percent of respondents expecting more jobs to become available increased to 20.4 , the highest since December 2003, from 17.7 in April. The proportion who expect their incomes to rise over the next six months increased to 11.3 percent from 10.5 percent. In contrast, the share of consumers who said jobs are currently plentiful fell to 4.6 percent from 4.7 percent. Those who said jobs are hard to get decreased to 43.6 percent from 44.8 percent. The Conference Board measure still lags the 97 average of the most recent expansion, which ended in December 2007. Today’s report compares with the preliminary reading of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index , which showed its confidence level rose to 73.3 this month, from 72.2 in April. The group is scheduled to release its final report for May on May 28. The labor market has shown signs of improvement. The U.S. has added jobs every month this year. Payrolls increased by 290,000 in April, the most in four years, after a 230,000 gain in March, Labor Department figures showed May 7. The unemployment rate rose to 9.9 percent as more people entered the labor force looking for work. More Spending The strengthening of the labor market has coincided with a pickup in Americans’ purchases. Consumer spending increased 3.6 percent in the first quarter, the most since the same three months in 2007, Commerce Department figures showed April 30. Spending probably rose at a 0.3 percent rate in April, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg survey before a government report later this week. Target Corp., the second-largest U.S. discount retailer, posted first-quarter earnings on May 19 that beat analysts’ projections, helped by clothing sales. Net income rose 29 percent to $671 million from $522 million a year earlier. Shoppers are returning to stores as the economy rebounds. Chief Executive Officer Gregg Steinhafel cited a better-than- expected economic environment that boosted sales of profitable items such as clothes. To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington cschlisserma@bloomberg.net

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Home Prices DROP Despite Ultra-Low Mortgage Rates: Case-Shiller Index

May 25, 2010

NEW YORK — Home prices fell in March from the previous month, a sign of a weakening housing market despite historically low mortgage rates and now-expired tax credits. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index released Tuesday posted a 0.5 percent drop from February. Prices in 13 of the 20 cities tracked by the index fell month over month. Only six metro areas recorded price gains. One, Boston, came in flat. Detroit and Chicago saw the largest monthly declines at 4.1 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively. Cleveland enjoyed the biggest gain at 1.8 percent. The numbers are especially disturbing because they show that improved sales due to the tax credits didn’t translate into higher prices, said David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the S&P index committee. “When you loot at recent trends, there are signs of renewed weakening in home prices,” he said in a statement. Falling home prices haven’t kept consumers from keeping an optimistic view of the economy. A separate report Tuesday showed consumer confidence rose in May for the third straight month as hopes for job growth improved. The increase in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index was boosted by consumers’ outlook for the next six months. But American shoppers’ positive attitude may not be enough to sway Wall Street investors, who fear the European debt crisis could hammer the global economy. The Dow Jones industrial average fell nearly 200 points Tuesday in early trading. In a healthier economy, extraordinarily low mortgage rates would pump up demand for homes. But economists say the job market is too weak and credit is too tight. Sales of previously occupied homes rose 7.6 percent in April, the National Association of Realtors said Monday. But the sales were aided by government incentives that have now expired and economist don’t expect the improvements to last. New buyers were offered a credit worth up to $8,000, while current owners who bought and moved into another home could get one for up to $6,500. To receive them, buyers had to have a signed offer by April 30 and must close by the end of June. The declining home prices are discouraging for American homeowners who have seen the value of their largest asset deteriorate significantly over the last three years. If home prices dip again, consumers may curb their spending and threaten the nascent economic recovery. And for homeowners struggling to pay their mortgages, falling home prices makes it even harder to refinance into an affordable home loan. Mortgage delinquencies were at a record high in the first quarter. Nationally, prices have climbed nearly 3 percent from their April 2009 bottom. But they remain nearly 31 percent below their July 2006 peak. In the first quarter of 2010, U.S. home prices fell 3.2 percent compared with the fourth quarter.

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Amarantus Therapeutics Inc. Appoints Dr. Robert J. Zimmerman as Chief Development Officer

May 24, 2010

Company to Present at the C21 BioVentures Conference on Thursday, May 27, 2010 at 10:30AM PDT

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More Losses Loom After U.S. Stocks Decline Below Level of May 6′s Plunge

May 21, 2010

By Lynn Thomasson and Rita Nazareth May 21 (Bloomberg) — Any investor who wants to gauge how serious the stock market’s retreat is need only know the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell yesterday to within 6 points of its low on May 6, when panic selling prompted calls for reform. The equity index retreated 3.9 percent yesterday in its biggest loss in 14 months, sinking to 1,071.59. That compares with 1,065.79 , the low two weeks ago when $862 billion was wiped out in 20 minutes. The options market benchmark known as the VIX soared 30 percent to 45.79 yesterday, meaning expectations for volatility are the highest in 13 months. Europe’s debt crisis has pushed the S&P 500 down 12 percent during the past month as concern grew that deficits in Greece, Spain and Portugal will unhinge the global economic recovery. Regulators have proposed six potential causes of the May 6 crash, including losses in exchange-traded funds and an unwillingness to match orders among some electronic traders. “As far as we know, it’s not a computer error today,” Jerome Dodson , who oversees $4 billion as president of Parnassus Investments in San Francisco, said of yesterday’s slump. “The May 6 flash crash was driven by technical troubles and didn’t reflect any fundamentals. It’s surprising that regular trading would take us down to the same levels as a technical glitch.” 200-Day Average The decline in U.S. shares deepened yesterday after the June futures contract for the S&P 500 fell below its 200-day average for the first time since July 2009, a bearish sign to traders who base investments on price momentum . More than 550 stocks reached their lowest price in a year yesterday, according to data from U.S. exchanges compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the second-highest level since April 2009. The June S&P 500 contract fell to 1,057.60 today, below the level of 1,060 reached during the May 6 crash. The chart patterns show concern the U.S. economy may weaken after expanding during the past three quarters. Reports yesterday showed more Americans filed for jobless benefits in the week ended May 15 and the Conference Board’s index of U.S. leading economic indicators unexpectedly declined in April. “If this begins to bleed into people’s psyches, then it can perpetuate a negative sentiment that could weigh not only further on the index, but begin to impact the real economy,” said Kevin Caron , a market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in Florham Park, New Jersey, which oversees about $90 billion. Ireland, U.S. Debt The Stoxx Europe 600 Index has fallen 7.2 percent in the past three days after Germany banned some bets against government bonds and financial institutions. Ireland, the U.K. and U.S. will post the largest budget deficits among advanced economies this year, ranging from 11 percent to 12.2 percent of gross domestic product, the Washington-based International Monetary Fund forecast on May 14. “You can’t just say Europe is deleveraging and the U.S. is safe,” Komal Sri-Kumar , who helps manage about $100 billion as chief global strategist at Los Angeles-based TCW Group Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday. “Are equity valuations justified given the level of debt? The answer is no.” U.S. stocks are valued at 19.4 times annual earnings from the past 10 years, according to inflation-adjusted data tracked by Yale University Professor Robert Shiller . That compares with the average of 16.4 since 1881. Today’s expiration of U.S. May options may heighten price swings as traders close out their positions, said Paul Zemsky of ING Investment Management. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500, has almost tripled since April 12. More Volatility The expiration “definitely contributed to the move today and could continue to increase volatility tomorrow,” Zemsky, who oversees about $50 billion as the New York-based head of asset allocation for ING, said yesterday. “It could cause the market to overshoot more than it normally would.” While the stock selloff reflects reasonable concern that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis will derail global growth, U.S. corporate earnings and favorable valuations will prevail, said Laszlo Birinyi , the founder of Birinyi Associates Inc. Profits for S&P 500 companies are forecast to increase 17 percent this year, pushing the index’s price to 13.2 times annual income, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “I am not of the view that we’re going to go into a 20 percent downdraft,” Birinyi said in a telephone interview yesterday. “We are buying to take advantage of this weakness.” Buying Opportunity Billionaire investor Kenneth Fisher also sees the equity plunge as a buying opportunity. The chairman of Fisher Investments Inc., who oversees about $35 billion in Woodside, California, said the U.S. economic recovery will outweigh the debt crisis in Europe. Gross domestic product in the world’s biggest economy rose at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter. Consumer spending increased by the most in three years and business investment on new equipment advanced at a 13 percent pace. The economy will grow 3.2 percent to 3.7 percent this year, the Federal Reserve said on May 19. “If GDP is rising, you don’t have a recession,” said Fisher. “We’re getting the stock market correction that begins to let us put everything behind us and move on to the next leg. This is a bull market.” That’s not enough to sooth investors still shaken by the May 6 crash, says Thomas Lee , JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief U.S. equity strategist. It’s too “cavalier” to assume the economic recovery is in place as China take steps to slow growth and Europe cuts spending to rein in budget deficits, he wrote in a May 20 research report. He forecasts that the S&P 500 will end the year at 1,300. “People are extremely nervous following the flash crash,” Lee said in a Bloomberg Television interview from New York yesterday. “It’s normally a wall of worry, but this is a mountain.” To contact the reporters on this story; Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net ; Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net .

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Stocks Sinking to Crash Low Signals Worse to Come

May 21, 2010

By Lynn Thomasson and Rita Nazareth May 21 (Bloomberg) — Any investor who wants to gauge how serious the stock market’s retreat is need only know the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has fallen below its low on May 6, when panic selling prompted calls for reform. The equity index retreated 3.9 percent yesterday in its biggest loss in 14 months, sinking to 1,071.59, and slipped to 1,055.90 at 9:34 a.m. in New York today. That compares with 1,065.79 , the low two weeks ago when $862 billion was wiped out in 20 minutes. The options market benchmark known as the VIX soared 30 percent to 45.79 yesterday, meaning expectations for volatility are the highest in 13 months. Europe’s debt crisis has pushed the S&P 500 down 12 percent during the past month as concern grew that deficits in Greece, Spain and Portugal will unhinge the global economic recovery. Regulators have proposed six potential causes of the May 6 crash, including losses in exchange-traded funds and an unwillingness to match orders among some electronic traders. “As far as we know, it’s not a computer error today,” Jerome Dodson , who oversees $4 billion as president of Parnassus Investments in San Francisco, said of yesterday’s slump. “The May 6 flash crash was driven by technical troubles and didn’t reflect any fundamentals. It’s surprising that regular trading would take us down to the same levels as a technical glitch.” 200-Day Average The decline in U.S. shares deepened yesterday after the June futures contract for the S&P 500 fell below its 200-day average for the first time since July 2009, a bearish sign to traders who base investments on price momentum . More than 550 stocks reached their lowest price in a year yesterday, according to data from U.S. exchanges compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the second-highest level since April 2009. The chart patterns show concern the U.S. economy may weaken after expanding during the past three quarters. Reports yesterday showed more Americans filed for jobless benefits in the week ended May 15 and the Conference Board’s index of U.S. leading economic indicators unexpectedly declined in April. “If this begins to bleed into people’s psyches, then it can perpetuate a negative sentiment that could weigh not only further on the index, but begin to impact the real economy,” said Kevin Caron , a market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in Florham Park, New Jersey, which oversees about $90 billion. Ireland, U.S. Debt The Stoxx Europe 600 Index has fallen 7.2 percent in the past three days after Germany banned some bets against government bonds and financial institutions. Ireland, the U.K. and U.S. will post the largest budget deficits among advanced economies this year, ranging from 11 percent to 12.2 percent of gross domestic product, the Washington-based International Monetary Fund forecast on May 14. “You can’t just say Europe is deleveraging and the U.S. is safe,” Komal Sri-Kumar , who helps manage about $100 billion as chief global strategist at Los Angeles-based TCW Group Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday. “Are equity valuations justified given the level of debt? The answer is no.” U.S. stocks are valued at 19.4 times annual earnings from the past 10 years, according to inflation-adjusted data tracked by Yale University Professor Robert Shiller . That compares with the average of 16.4 since 1881. Today’s expiration of U.S. May options may heighten price swings as traders close out their positions, said Paul Zemsky of ING Investment Management. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500, has almost tripled since April 12. More Volatility The expiration “definitely contributed to the move today and could continue to increase volatility tomorrow,” Zemsky, who oversees about $50 billion as the New York-based head of asset allocation for ING, said yesterday. “It could cause the market to overshoot more than it normally would.” While the stock selloff reflects reasonable concern that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis will derail global growth, U.S. corporate earnings and favorable valuations will prevail, said Laszlo Birinyi , the founder of Birinyi Associates Inc. Profits for S&P 500 companies are forecast to increase 17 percent this year, pushing the index’s price to 13.2 times annual income, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “I am not of the view that we’re going to go into a 20 percent downdraft,” Birinyi said in a telephone interview yesterday. “We are buying to take advantage of this weakness.” Buying Opportunity Billionaire investor Kenneth Fisher also sees the equity plunge as a buying opportunity. The chairman of Fisher Investments Inc., who oversees about $35 billion in Woodside, California, said the U.S. economic recovery will outweigh the debt crisis in Europe. Gross domestic product in the world’s biggest economy rose at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter. Consumer spending increased by the most in three years and business investment on new equipment advanced at a 13 percent pace. The economy will grow 3.2 percent to 3.7 percent this year, the Federal Reserve said on May 19. “If GDP is rising, you don’t have a recession,” said Fisher. “We’re getting the stock market correction that begins to let us put everything behind us and move on to the next leg. This is a bull market.” That’s not enough to sooth investors still shaken by the May 6 crash, says Thomas Lee , JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief U.S. equity strategist. It’s too “cavalier” to assume the economic recovery is in place as China take steps to slow growth and Europe cuts spending to rein in budget deficits, he wrote in a May 20 research report. He forecasts that the S&P 500 will end the year at 1,300. “People are extremely nervous following the flash crash,” Lee said in a Bloomberg Television interview from New York yesterday. “It’s normally a wall of worry, but this is a mountain.” To contact the reporters on this story; Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net ; Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net .

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Stocks Dropping Near Bottom of May 6 Plunge May Signal More Losses to Come

May 20, 2010

By Lynn Thomasson and Rita Nazareth May 21 (Bloomberg) — Any investor who wants to gauge how serious the stock market’s retreat is need only know the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has fallen to within 6 points of its low on May 6, when panic selling prompted calls for reform. The equity index fell 3.9 percent yesterday in its biggest loss in 14 months, sinking to 1,071.59. That compares with 1,065.79 , the low two weeks ago when $862 billion was wiped out in 20 minutes. The options market benchmark known as the VIX soared 30 percent to 45.79 yesterday, meaning expectations for volatility are the highest in 13 months. Europe’s debt crisis has pushed the S&P 500 down 12 percent during the past month as concern grew that deficits in Greece, Spain and Portugal will unhinge the global economic recovery. Regulators have proposed six potential causes of the May 6 crash, including losses in exchange-traded funds and an unwillingness to match orders among some electronic traders. “As far as we know, it’s not a computer error today,” Jerome Dodson , who oversees $4 billion as president of Parnassus Investments in San Francisco, said of yesterday’s slump. “The May 6 flash crash was driven by technical troubles and didn’t reflect any fundamentals. It’s surprising that regular trading would take us down to the same levels as a technical glitch.” The decline in U.S. shares deepened yesterday after the June futures contract for the S&P 500 fell below its 200-day average for the first time since July 2009, a bearish sign to traders who base investments on price momentum . More than 550 stocks reached their lowest price in a year yesterday, according to data from U.S. exchanges compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the second-highest level since April 2009. Investor Psychology The chart patterns show concern the U.S. economy may weaken after expanding during the past three quarters. Reports yesterday showed more Americans filed for jobless benefits in the week ended May 15 and the Conference Board’s index of U.S. leading economic indicators unexpectedly declined in April. “If this begins to bleed into people’s psyches, then it can perpetuate a negative sentiment that could weigh not only further on the index, but begin to impact the real economy,” said Kevin Caron , a market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in Florham Park, New Jersey, which oversees about $90 billion. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index has fallen 5.2 percent in the past two days after Germany banned some bets against government bonds and financial institutions. Ireland, the U.K. and U.S. will post the largest budget deficits among advanced economies this year, ranging from 11 percent to 12.2 percent of gross domestic product, the Washington-based International Monetary Fund forecast on May 14. Unjustified “You can’t just say Europe is deleveraging and the U.S. is safe,” Komal Sri-Kumar , who helps manage about $100 billion as chief global strategist at Los Angeles-based TCW Group Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday. “Are equity valuations justified given the level of debt? The answer is no.” U.S. stocks are valued at 19.4 times annual earnings from the past 10 years, according to inflation-adjusted data tracked by Yale University Professor Robert Shiller . That compares with the average of 16.4 since 1881. Today’s expiration of U.S. May options may heighten price swings as traders close out their positions, said Paul Zemsky of ING Investment Management. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500, has almost tripled since April 12. The expiration “definitely contributed to the move today and could continue to increase volatility tomorrow,” Zemsky, who oversees about $50 billion as the New York-based head of asset allocation for ING, said yesterday. “It could cause the market to overshoot more than it normally would.” Birinyi Buys While the stock selloff reflects reasonable concern that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis will derail global growth, U.S. corporate earnings and favorable valuations will prevail, said Laszlo Birinyi , the founder of Birinyi Associates Inc. Profits for S&P 500 companies are forecast to increase 17 percent this year, pushing the index’s price to 13.2 times annual income, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “I am not of the view that we’re going to go into a 20 percent downdraft,” Birinyi said in a telephone interview yesterday. “We are buying to take advantage of this weakness.” Billionaire investor Kenneth Fisher also sees the equity plunge as a buying opportunity. The chairman of Fisher Investments Inc., who oversees about $35 billion in Woodside, California, said the U.S. economic recovery will outweigh the debt crisis in Europe. ‘A Bull Market’ Gross domestic product in the world’s biggest economy rose at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter. Consumer spending increased by the most in three years and business investment on new equipment advanced at a 13 percent pace. The economy will grow 3.2 percent to 3.7 percent this year, the Federal Reserve said on May 19. “If GDP is rising, you don’t have a recession,” said Fisher. “We’re getting the stock market correction that begins to let us put everything behind us and move on to the next leg. This is a bull market.” That’s not enough to sooth investors still shaken by the May 6 crash, says Thomas Lee , JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief U.S. equity strategist. It’s too “cavalier” to assume the economic recovery is in place as China take steps to slow growth and Europe cuts spending to rein in budget deficits, he wrote in a May 20 research report. He forecasts that the S&P 500 will end the year at 1,300. “People are extremely nervous following the flash crash,” Lee said in a Bloomberg Television interview from New York yesterday. “It’s normally a wall of worry, but this is a mountain.” To contact the reporters on this story; Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net ; Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net .

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Stocks Plunge Most in a Year

May 20, 2010

By Whitney Kisling and Elizabeth Stanton May 20 (Bloomberg) — A weeklong rout in stocks deepened, with U.S. benchmark indexes losing the most in more than a year, as reports cast doubts about the strength of the economic recovery and European leaders struggled to contain the region’s debt crisis. Commodities plunged and Treasuries soared. The retreat pushed the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down 3.9 percent to 1,071.59 at 4 p.m. in New York, its biggest drop since April 2009. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index plunged 2.2 percent and the S&P GSCI Index of commodities tumbled to the lowest since October. The losses accelerated even as the euro rallied 0.7 percent to $1.2502 after earlier flirting with a four-year low. Ten-year Treasury yields sank to the lowest of the year, down 15 basis points at 3.22 percent. The yen rallied against all 16 major counterparts. Tomorrow’s expiration of U.S. stock options added to volatility after U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly increased to 471,000 last week and the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators fell 0.1 percent. European finance officials meet in Brussels a day before the German parliament votes on the country’s share of a $1 trillion bailout to backstop the euro in the wake of a worsening sovereign debt crisis. “Put your helmets on if you are long risk here,” Nicolas Lenoir , chief market strategist at ICAP Futures LLC in Jersey City, New Jersey, said in a note to clients before markets opened today. “A lot of stops have been triggered when the S&P future crossed 1,100 and anybody still long will probably have to bail out and head for cover.” S&P 500 Correction Gauges of financial, industrial commodity companies tumbled more than 4.4 percent each to lead declines in all 10 of the S&P 500’s main industry groups. Bank of America Corp., Alcoa Inc. and General Electric Co. dropped more than 5.7 percent as all 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell, dragging the gauge down 376.36 points, or 3.6 percent, to 10,068.01 for its biggest tumble since March 5, 2009. Both the S&P 500 and Dow closed at their lowest levels since February. Today’s plunge in stocks came as the Securities and Exchange Commission continues its autopsy of the chain reaction of selling that briefly erased $1 trillion in stock value on May 6. Democrat Kentucky Senator Jim Bunning and Virginia’s Mark Warner today said at a committee hearing that they were concerned the so-called flash crash could be repeated. “It’s a question of confidence,” said Jack Ablin , chief investment officer at Chicago-based Harris Private Bank, which oversees $55 billion. The almost 1000-point decline in the Dow average on May 6 “not only rattled the confidence of investors, but everyday policymakers are digging in and not giving us answers as to what’s causing this problem.” Jobless Claims Stock futures extended declines before exchanges opened in New York after initial jobless claims rose by 25,000 to 471,000 in the week ended May 15, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the highest level in a month, Labor Department figures showed. Losses accelerated in the regular session after the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators unexpectedly slumped 0.1 percent. To contact the reporters on this story: Whitney Kisling in New York at wkisling@bloomberg.net ; Elizabeth Stanton in New York at estanton@bloomberg.net .

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Stocks Worldwide Fall for Sixth Day, Euro Drops on Sovereign-Debt Concern

May 20, 2010

By Whitney Kisling and Elizabeth Stanton May 20 (Bloomberg) — A weeklong selloff in stocks deepened as reports in the U.S. raised doubts about the strength of the economic recovery and leaders in Europe struggled to contain the region’s debt crisis. Commodities tumbled, the euro plunged and Treasuries soared. The losses pushed the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down 2.8 percent to 1,084.28 at 10:37 a.m. in New York, a move below the 200-day moving average level that traders who base decisions on price charts say could trigger more declines. The MSCI World Index of developed nations’ stocks fell for a sixth day. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index plunged 3.2 percent. The euro weakened against the dollar, trading near the lowest in four years. Ten- year Treasury yields sank to the lowest levels of the year, dropping 15 basis points to 3.2 percent. U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly increased to 471,000 last week and the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators fell 0.1 percent. European finance officials meet in Brussels a day before the German parliament votes on the country’s share of a $1 trillion bailout to backstop the euro in the wake of a worsening sovereign debt crisis. “As investors you feel like you got hit by the pitch in 2008-2009 because of significantly underestimating the contagion of the subprime mortgage market,” said David Sowerby , a Bloomfield Hills, Michigan-based money manager at Loomis Sayles & Co., which oversees $140 billion. “Because that experience is so recent it’s exacerbating the whole European crisis.” S&P 500 Correction The S&P 500 extended its plunge from a 19-month high on April 23 to more than 10 percent, a retreat known as a correction. The index has pared its rally from a 12-year low in March 2009 to 60 percent. Stock futures extended declines before exchanges opened in New York after initial jobless claims rose by 25,000 to 471,000 in the week ended May 15, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the highest level in a month, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The number of people receiving unemployment insurance and those getting extended payments fell. The Nasdaq Composite Index today joined the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 in erasing its 2010 advance. Stocks plunged yesterday as German Chancellor Angela Merkel ’s unilateral effort to control what she called “destructive” markets rattled investors. The German ban on some bearish bets against financial companies and government bonds wasn’t replicated in other European states. To contact the reporter on this story: David Merritt in London on dmerritt1@bloomberg.net

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Leslie Grossman: What’s Your New Business Model for 2010

May 16, 2010

For many of us in the world of business, and particularly business owners and leaders, 2009 was a year to which we are thrilled to say “adieu.” Now that we’re past it, I can stop being angry at 2009, and take a moment to say thank you for all that I learned from it. I don’t know about you, but I’ve gathered up all that learning and am applying it to our business in the new decade. What did I learn? Most important of all, I learned to be willing to change my company’s business model. What worked in the ’90′s, most likely may not work in the new decade. So take a hard look at your market. Do research on what your target audience wants and be willing to really shake up your business. 2009 was about reducing costs and staying in business. 2010 is about growing the business. In many cases, that may require a new business model, or at the very least, a new way of doing business. What is my company’s new business model? Women’s Leadership Exchange (WLE) – a company known for its live conferences since 2002, is presenting the first Virtual Summit for Women Business Owners and Professionals, www.womensleadershipexchange.com (and men can attend, too) on Wednesday, May 26. How did we arrive at the decision to change our business model? First, the technology has finally arrived to the point that we can deliver everything we have at live conferences virtually in streaming video – right to your own PC or Mac. Second, businesses are looking to save on expenses. So if my company can deliver to our audience valuable keynotes, workshops, networking, resources and exhibits on our customers’ computers, they save time and save money – two things that are in low supply these days. Business owners can use those bucks they would have used on fees, travel and parking to invest in their own businesses. Third, business owners have no time. They are multi-tasking like crazy. The virtual format enables us to archive the conference content so that our attendees can go back after the event and listen and see it again as often as they want. Once a live event is over, it’s over and if you missed hearing something, it’s gone forever. But at the WLE Virtual Summit, you can replay the speeches, etc. and remind yourself and your team about all the great information you learned or didn’t get to hear the first time. The fourth reason we decided to change our business model is that a Virtual Summit is NEW and exciting. It gives us something new to talk about – it’s a great opportunity for PR. By the way, the WLE Virtual Summit is being keynoted by Arianna Huffington, who created a new business model herself – The Huffington Post. So the theme of the conference “A New Way of Doing Business is kicked off by a leader who embraces change and doing things differently. So what’s your new business model? What are you doing differently? Please share, so we can all learn from each other!! Tell us what you are doing and maybe we’ll invite you to share your story at the next WLE Virtual Summit.

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Pound Slumps to Yearly Low, G7 to Hold Conference Call on Greece

May 7, 2010

Pound Slumps to Yearly Low, G7 to Hold Conference Call on Greece

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Conoco, Anadarko Drill On, Unfazed by BP’s Struggle to Contain Oil Slick

May 4, 2010

By Joe Carroll May 4 (Bloomberg) — Offshore oil producers such as ConocoPhillips and Anadarko Petroleum Corp. are pressing ahead with drilling even as BP Plc struggles to contain a Gulf of Mexico spill that may cost $12.5 billion to clean up. The Gulf remains attractive to explorers because deep-water discoveries there have averaged almost four times the global average during the past decade, Frank J. Patterson , Anadarko’s vice president for international development, said yesterday at the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston. BP, the biggest oil producer in the Gulf, deployed boats, remote-controlled robots, booms and detergents to combat a growing oil slick triggered by an April 20 rig explosion that killed 11 people and resulted in a leak from a subsea well. The spill threatens to disrupt fishing and tourism from Louisiana to Florida and may cost BP and its partners in the well $12.5 billion, according to analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd. At the Houston conference, the world’s biggest offshore- drilling convention, the spill didn’t temper producers’ enthusiasm over offshore oil prospects. “It’s remarkable how many deep-water plays around the world have been lightly explored or not looked at at all,” said Larry Archibald , Houston-based ConocoPhillips’s senior vice president for exploration. “We’ve got an increased focus on high-impact wildcat wells.” Stricter Regulations Energy companies in search of untapped fields holding millions of barrels of crude have few alternatives to rock formations hidden beneath thousands of feet of water, said Robert Fryklund, vice president of industry relations at energy- consulting firm IHS Inc. “Will we continue to invest in the deep water? Yes,” Dave Lawrence , executive vice president for exploration at Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s U.S. unit, said at the conference. Tougher U.S. drilling regulations that may result from the BP incident probably won’t dissuade producers from expanding into deeper seas, Fryklund said. “The event that happened is a tragedy, and there will be changes going forward,” Fryklund said yesterday at the conference. ConocoPhillips is amassing deep-water exploration leases as far afield as Bangladesh, Archibald said. The company is negotiating production-sharing agreements with the South Asian nation to cover those tracts, he said. Focused on Exploration Such deep-water prospects will fuel ConocoPhillips’s exploration program for decades, Archibald said. Four years after its $36.1 billion purchase of U.S. natural-gas producer Burlington Resources Inc., ConocoPhillips has decided the best way to increase its resource base is through exploration, rather than acquisitions, he said. About 70 percent of the world’s oil discoveries in the past two years have been offshore, Fryklund said. With global demand expected to rise as much as 18 percent in the next 10 years, energy producers will have no choice but to exploit crude deposits under thousands of feet of water and hundreds of miles from shore, he said. “There’s still lots of running room in deep-water plays,” ConocoPhillips’s Archibald said. Tony Hayward , chief executive officer at London-based BP, said in a May 2 interview that the future of offshore drilling in the Gulf may depend on how well his company handles the spill and its aftermath. Shares Drop During a May 2 visit to Louisiana, President Barack Obama said the slick may become “an unprecedented environmental disaster.” California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger no longer supports a plan to allow limited drilling for oil off the state’s coast because of the Gulf of Mexico spill, Aaron McLear , his spokesman, said yesterday. Schwarzenegger had advocated letting Plains Exploration & Production Co., operator of four California offshore oil platforms, expand into waters near Santa Barbara. BP has lost almost $23 billion in market value since the Transocean Ltd. rig it was leasing, the Deepwater Horizon, exploded and caught fire above the Macondo well 41 miles (66 kilometers) from the Louisiana coast. BP has a 65 percent stake in the well, and Anadarko has a 25 percent interest. Anadarko , based in The Woodlands, Texas, has declined 13 percent since the BP spill. Geneva-based Transocean, the world’s largest offshore oil driller, has tumbled 21 percent. Pressure-Control Device Cameron International Corp. , the Houston-based maker of a subsea pressure-control device designed to prevent a blowout on the Deepwater Horizon, fell 13 percent the day after its role in the drilling project was reported by Bloomberg. Anadarko, which operates the biggest floating natural-gas platform in the Gulf, boosted its deep-water exploration prospects by 25 percent in 2009 and expects to add to that inventory this year, Patterson said. “This industry tends to withdraw during times of economic upheaval and during times when you’ve had a bad run of exploration,” Patterson said. “You have to have an exploration focus if you’re going to be successful.” Cobalt International Energy Inc. , the oil explorer whose largest shareholders are Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and a First Reserve Corp. fund, plans to drill 10 exploration wells in the Gulf of Mexico during the next two years and four or five such wells in West Africa, said Jim Farnsworth , chief exploration officer. Since its founding four years ago, Cobalt has accrued 200 exploration leases in the Gulf and four in West Africa, all of them in deep water, Farnsworth said. “If you don’t do it well, you should get out of it,” Farnsworth said of deep-water exploration. To contact the reporter on this story: Joe Carroll in Houston at jcarroll8@bloomberg.net .

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Help-Wanted Ads on Internet Jump to Highest Level Since 2008 as U.S. Mends

May 3, 2010

By Timothy R. Homan May 3 (Bloomberg) — The number of jobs advertised on the Internet in April jumped to the highest level since November 2008, a sign the labor market is on the mend. There were 4.15 million help-wanted ads posted online, up 222,700, or 5.7 percent, from 3.93 million in March, according to figures from the Conference Board, a New York-based private research group. All four regions of the U.S. and all 22 industry categories registered gains last month. Companies are boosting staff to meet rising demand as consumers and businesses spend more. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News anticipate the government’s report May 7 will show payrolls increased again last month in part due to temporary hiring by the federal government to conduct the 2010 census, and the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent. “Employers are looking to restock labor as the economic recovery broadens out,” Jonathan Basile , an economist at Credit Suisse in New York, said today in a note to clients after the report. “This isn’t just a temporary Census workers story.” The gain in ads last month was led by the South, with Texas and Georgia showing the biggest increases in demand for workers in the region. New York had the biggest advance among all states by adding 23,600 ads, while Florida was the only state with a month-over-month decrease. Management positions showed the biggest jump in openings among industries, followed by workers in computer and mathematical science, the report showed. To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net

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Michael Martin: Video: Why Wall St. Needs More Checks & Balances

May 2, 2010

Financial Times reporter Stacy-Marie Ishmael discusses the essence of risk management on Wall St. with Huffington Post Contributor Michael Martin at the Milken Global Conference, April 28, 2010 in Beverly Hills. You can follow Ishmael below: Stacy-Marie Ishmael on Twitter Watch her at the Milken Global Conference in Beverly Hills Online News: The Frontier of Financial Journalism Do Our Financial Models Still Work? Read her at the Financial Times/Alphaville

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Chrysler May Boost U.S. Vehicle Sales With Biggest Monthly Gain Since 2005

April 30, 2010

By Katie Merx April 30 (Bloomberg) — U.S. auto sales strengthened a year after bankruptcies began to batter the auto industry, with Chrysler Group LLC forecast to post its biggest monthly gain since 2005. Industrywide deliveries in April may have risen to an annualized rate of 11.4 million light vehicles, the average of 8 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Chrysler, which entered Chapter 11 a year ago today before emerging controlled by Turin, Italy-based Fiat SpA , may have climbed 15 percent, 6 projections show. The yearly rate of domestic sales in April may be less than the 11.8 million seasonally adjusted annualized pace in March, when Toyota Motor Corp. offered its biggest incentives to counter global recalls, spurring competitors to add discounts. “The automotive industry is in full-blown recovery,” said Jesse Toprak , vice president of industry trends and insight for TrueCar.com in Santa Monica, California. “Toyota’s generous incentives in April continue to bring consumers back into dealerships; however, the impact of its incentive programs in the marketplace appears to have diminished slightly in April.” General Motors Co. , which entered bankruptcy on June 1, and emerged in July, may post a 7.2 percent increase when industry sales are announced on May 3, while Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford Motor Co. may report a jump of 28 percent. Chrysler’s last double-digit increase was 27 percent in July 2005 when the Auburn Hills, Michigan-based carmaker was part of DaimlerChrysler AG. Zero-Percent Financing Asia-based automakers also benefited from incentives. Toyota sales may have risen 34 percent, the average of 5 analysts. The Toyota City, Japan-based automaker extended the no-interest loans and discount leases it offered in April, and competitors followed. Honda Motor Co. , Japan’s second-largest automaker after Toyota, may say sales rose 15 percent, the average of 4 analysts, while No. 3 Nissan Motor Co. may have a 57 percent gain. Seoul-based Hyundai Motor Co. may increase 35 percent, according to Santa Monica, California-based Edmunds.com. “Honda sales in April got a boost from the uncharacteristically large offers it made available to prospective buyers, including zero-percent financing,” said Brian Johnson , a Barclays Capital analyst in Chicago. Manufacturers, dealers and investors use the annualized rate to account for seasonal buying patterns when comparing monthly totals. The average estimate for an industry sales pace of 11.4 million vehicles would be a 23 percent increase from the 9.3 million of a year earlier, according to Autodata Corp. Consumer Confidence Climbs Automakers were buoyed by consumer confidence that rose in April to its highest since September 2008, as measured by the Conference Board’s monthly index. “U.S. industry sales of light vehicles appear to have slowed down in April from the 11.8 million level achieved last month, as the initial boost from the large incentives offered since March by manufacturers across the board tapered off, and as automakers likely sold fewer cars to fleet customers,” Johnson said in an April 28 note to investors. Ford fell 42 cents, or 3.1 percent, to $13.16 at 12:42 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading . Toyota’s American depositary receipts , each worth 2 ordinary shares, dropped 81 cents, or 1 percent, to $77.30. Ford has gained 32 percent in 2010, and Toyota’s ADRs have declined 8.2 percent. ‘Feeling Better’ Toyota began offering incentives on March 2 such as subsidized leases after worldwide recalls of more than 8 million vehicles to fix defects linked to unintended acceleration and to adjust brakes. The company probably spent an average $2,416 on incentives on each vehicle this month, according to forecaster TrueCar.com. The industry average is about $2,798, TrueCar.com said. Incentives are down 4 percent from March 2009, when Detroit- based GM and Chrysler boosted spending ahead of their bankruptcy filings. John McEleney , who has a Toyota and a Buick, GMC and Cadillac dealership in Clinton, Iowa, said sales were up 30 percent at his Toyota store and increased about 20 percent among his GM brands. “Sales were really pretty good, but not quite as good as March,” McEleney said, adding that sales may keep gaining this year. “We’re seeing a lot more showroom traffic and a lot more Internet activity. People are feeling better about their jobs, too.” The following table shows estimates for car and light-truck sales in the U.S. Estimates for companies are a percentage change from March 2009. Forecasts for the seasonally adjusted annual rate, or SAAR, are in millions of vehicles. April had 26 selling days, the same as a year earlier. To contact the reporters on this story: Katie Merx in Southfield, Michigan, at kmerx@bloomberg.net ;

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U.S. Stock-Index Futures Pare Gain After GDP Growth Is Less Than Forecast

April 30, 2010

By Michael P. Regan April 30 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stock-index pared gains after a government report showed the economy grew less than forecast in the first quarter. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in June rose less than 0.1 percent to 1,205.8 at 8:32 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 4 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 11,139 after gaining as much as 0.2 percent earlier. European Commission President Jose Barroso said today that he is confident a rescue package for the Greek government will be completed “in days.” The International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Union are making rapid progress on the package, he said. Also today, figures from Reuters/University of Michigan may show measures of consumer confidence diverged this month. The group’s sentiment gauge probably fell to 71 from 73.6 in March, according to a survey median. A similar report this week from the Conference Board, a New York research group, showed confidence climbed to the highest level since September 2008. Goldman Sachs tumbled 3.4 percent to $154.75 in New York. Bank of America cut its recommendation to “neutral” from “buy,” citing media reports indicating federal prosecutors are investigating the firm. Bank of America also slashed its price estimate on the shares to $160 from $220, according to a report dated today. Goldman Investigation Federal prosecutors in New York are investigating transactions by Goldman Sachs, accused of misleading investors by U.S. securities regulators, to determine whether to pursue a criminal fraud case, according to two people familiar with the matter. U.S. stocks rallied yesterday, sending benchmark indexes up the most since at least March, as better-than-estimated earnings at companies from Motorola Inc. to Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. added to evidence the economy is strengthening. The S&P 500 has rallied 78 percent from a 12-year low in March 2009 as earnings returned to growth following a record nine-quarter slump and the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low to safeguard the recovery from recession. Profit at companies in the S&P 500 surged 176 percent during the final three months of 2009, the most in Bloomberg data going back to 1998, and analysts estimate a 44 percent increase for the first quarter of 2010. Earnings estimates for companies in the index rose 9.1 percent on average in April, the largest monthly increase since at least 2006. Income for the first three months of this year is beating estimates at nearly the fastest rate ever, with 77.8 percent of the companies that have reported topping projections. That compares with 79.5 percent in the third quarter and 72.3 percent in the period before that.

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U.S. Economy Probably Grew as Consumer Spending Rose Most in Three Years

April 30, 2010

By Timothy R. Homan April 30 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. economy probably expanded in the first quarter, capping the biggest six-month gain since 2003, as consumers spent more freely, economists said before a government report today. Gross domestic product grew at a 3.3 percent annual pace from January through March, according to the median estimate of 85 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Household purchases may have climbed by the most in three years. Consumers may play a more active role in the recovery, increasing the likelihood the rebound will be sustained, as growing sales at companies from General Electric Co. to Caterpillar Inc. promote hiring. The report may also show prices increased at the slowest pace on record, highlighting why Federal Reserve policy makers are pledging to keep interest rates low. “The economy is still on a moderate-recovery track, and inflation pressures are easing,” said Nigel Gault , chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “The economy gained momentum as the first quarter progressed, so the second quarter should see stronger growth.” The Commerce Department’s report on economic growth is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Bloomberg survey estimates spanned from 1.8 percent to 4.5 percent. Following a 5.6 percent pace of growth in the last three months of 2009, the back-to-back readings mark the strongest performance since the last half of 2003. Spending Pickup Consumer spending , which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, probably rose at a 3.3 percent annual rate last quarter, the fastest pace since the first three months of 2007, the report may also show. Fed policy makers this week acknowledged the improvement, saying household spending had “picked up recently,” according to their April 28 statement announcing the benchmark interest rate would remain near zero. Today’s GDP report may also show the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge , which is tied to consumer spending and strips out food and fuel costs, climbed at a 0.5 percent annual rate at the start of the year, according to the survey median. The gain would be the smallest since record-keeping began in 1959. “Economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period,” policy makers said in this week’s statement. Labor Costs Another report today may show labor costs are contained. The employment cost index rose 0.5 percent in the first quarter after increasing 0.4 percent in the prior three months, the survey showed before Labor Department figures at 8:30 a.m. Expenses were up 1.5 percent in the 12 months through December, matching the smallest increase since records began in 2001. Also today, figures from Reuters/University of Michigan may show measures of consumer confidence diverged this month. The group’s sentiment gauge probably fell to 71 from 73.6 in March, according to a survey median. A similar report this week from the Conference Board, a New York research group, showed confidence climbed to the highest level since September 2008. An improving job market is one reason why households are more willing to spend. Payrolls probably rose again in April following a 162,000 gain in March that was the biggest in three years, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed before the Labor Department’s monthly employment report on May 7. The jobless rate was at 9.7 percent for a fourth month, the survey also showed. Stocks Rise Stocks gained in the first quarter of the year on mounting signs the economic recovery was taking hold. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 4.9 percent from January through March, and has increased 3.2 percent in April. Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of construction equipment, had its first earnings increase in seven quarters as demand rose, and said it will bring back at least 9,000 jobs this year of the 19,000 it cut globally in 2009. The Peoria, Illinois-based company has added about 1,500 workers since year- end because of higher production, including 600 in the U.S. Business investment rather than consumer spending will drive the U.S. economic recovery as profits climb, GE’s Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Immelt said this week. “The clouds are breaking and the forecast ahead of us is promising,” Immelt told shareholders at an April 28 meeting in Houston. The company sees growth coming from emerging markets such as China, where it garnered $6 billion in sales last year, including about 40 percent from goods exported from the U.S. Immelt said he plans to hire more workers in the U.S. this year. To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net

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Consumer Confidence in U.S. Rises to Highest Level Since ’08 on Job Gains

April 27, 2010

By Courtney Schlisserman April 27 (Bloomberg) — Consumers in the U.S. turned more optimistic in April as the growing economy raised hopes jobs will become available. The Conference Board’s confidence index rose to 57.9, exceeding all forecasts of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the highest level since Lehman Brothers Inc. collapsed in September 2008, according to data from the New York-based private research group. The measure averaged 97 during the last expansion. Americans’ outlook for the next six months climbed to the highest level since October 2007, two months before the recession began, as almost one in every five people polled thought the world’s largest economy and employment would improve. Another report showed home prices in the 12 months to February rose less than forecast, showing the housing market recovery will take time to unfold. “The sentiment numbers tell us the labor market is improving, suggesting the consumer is going to continue to spend,” said Nigel Gault , chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, whose confidence estimate of 57 matched the highest. “We still don’t have any firm, underlying housing recovery in place yet.” Stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down for a second day, on growing concern over the European debt crisis. The S&P index dropped 1.5 percent to 1,194.38 at 11:43 a.m. in New York. Treasury securities rose, reflecting demand for the safest of government securities, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year note down to 3.68 percent from 3.81 percent late yesterday. Exceeds Forecasts The median forecast of 78 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected the confidence index would rise to 53.5. Estimates ranged from 48 to 57. The Conference Board revised the March figure to 52.3 from a previous estimate of 52.5. Pessimism is starting to abate after employers boosted payrolls in three of the past five months. More job growth will be needed to spark bigger gains in confidence, incomes and spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. The Conference Board’s report stood in contrast to a preliminary survey by Reuters/ University of Michigan issued earlier this month, which showed sentiment unexpectedly dropped as Americans fretted about jobs and health care. Another report showed home prices climbed less than forecast, a sign the housing recovery will take time to develop. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities rose 0.6 percent in February from the same month last year. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected a 1.3 percent advance. More Foreclosures Home prices in February were 30 percent below the peak reached in July 2006, the report showed. Mounting foreclosures are likely to pressure prices for much of the year. “The big plunge is over, but significant strength is unlikely,” said Jim O’Sullivan , chief economist at MF Global Ltd. in New York. “There is still a huge excess of vacant houses.” The Conference Board’s confidence measure of present conditions rose this month to the highest level since May. The gauge of expectations for the next six months jumped to 77.4 from 70.4. The share of respondents expecting more jobs to become available rose to a seven-month high of 18 percent from 14.1 percent. Nonetheless, the proportion of people who expect their incomes to rise over the next six months dropped to 10.3 percent from 10.8 percent. Employment Gains The labor market is showing signs of improving. Employers in March added 162,000 jobs, the most in three years, Labor Department figures showed April 2. Joblessness may still be slow to decline as the improving economy entices more people to re-enter the labor force. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg earlier this month project the unemployment rate , at 9.7 percent in March, will end the year at 9.4 percent. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told Congress on April 14 that high unemployment and weak construction were among the “significant restraints” on the pace of growth. At their March 16 meeting, central bankers said economic conditions are likely to warrant “exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.” The policy making Federal Open Market Committee meets today and tomorrow to discuss the course of interest rates. Spending Improves Americans are beginning to spend more. Consumer purchases probably rose at a 3.1 percent annual rate in the first three months of this year, almost double the fourth-quarter pace and the most in three years, according to a Bloomberg survey ahead of an April 30 report. The Commerce Department’s advanced figures on first-quarter gross domestic product will probably also show the nation’s economy grew at a 3.3 percent annual rate, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Starbucks Corp. , the world’s largest coffee-shop operator, raised its annual forecast after reporting second-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates. “We’re benefiting from a consumer who’s feeling just a little bit better,” Troy Alstead , chief financial officer of Starbucks, said in a telephone interview after the Seattle-based company announced earnings on April 21. Whirlpool Corp. , the world’s largest appliance maker, yesterday boosted its forecast for the year and said sales for the first quarter were 20 percent higher than a year earlier. To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington cschlisserma@bloomberg.net

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Leading Economic Indicators Index in U.S. Rises 1.4% as Economy Recovers

April 19, 2010

By Bob Willis April 19 (Bloomberg) — The index of U.S. leading indicators rose in March by the most in 10 months, a sign the economy will keep growing into the second half of the year. The 1.4 percent increase in the New York-based Conference Board’s measure of the outlook for three to six months was more than anticipated and followed a revised 0.4 percent gain in February. Manufacturers are ratcheting up production and factory workers are putting in longer hours as companies rebuild inventories and ship more goods overseas. Further improvement in the job market will help sustain the economy’s recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s. “The economy really seems to be gaining momentum, with better-than-expected data coming from a wider variety of sources,” Russell Price , a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit, said before the report. “The sectors that were doing well appear to be doing even better and those that were struggling appear to be seeing signs of renewed activity.” Today’s figure compared with a median estimate of 1.1 percent by 51 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from gains of 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent. Seven of the 10 indicators in the leading index contributed to the gain, led by the interest-rate spread, an increase in factory hours, slower supplier deliveries, gains in stock prices and rising building permits. Shrinking money supply, fewer orders for capital goods and a drop in consumer expectations weighed on the index. Coincident Indicators The Conference Board’s index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, rose 0.1 percent in March for a second month. The index tracks payrolls, incomes, sales and production, the measures used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to determine the beginning and end of U.S. recessions. “Payroll employment made its first substantial contribution to the coincident economic index, suggesting a recovery that is beginning to gain traction,” Ataman Ozyildirim, an economist at the Conference Board, said in the news release. The positive spread between the yield on the 10-year Treasury note and the overnight fed funds rate reflects investor expectations the economy will keep improving. The supplier delivery index , a component of the Institute for Supply Management’s factory survey, rose in March to the highest level since June 2004, indicating slower delivery times as demand mounts. Higher Stock Prices The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index averaged 1,152.05 in March, compared 1,089.16 in February. The S&P 500 Index gained 8.7 percent this year through April 15. Building permits in March rose 7.5 percent to a 685,000 annual pace, the biggest gain since December, from the prior month, the Commerce Department reported last week. Average weekly initial jobless claims fell to 448,000 last month from 467,500 in February, a sign firings were easing. Payrolls rose 162,000 in March, the biggest monthly gain in three years, Labor Department figures showed April 2. JPMorgan Chase & Co. is among companies hiring. JPMorgan’s President Jamie Dimon last week announced plans to hire nearly 9,000 employees in the U.S. alone and more abroad as first quarter earnings rose 55 percent to $3.33 billion from a year earlier. “While the economy still faces challenges, there have been clear and broad-based improvements in underlying trends,” Dimon said in a statement. Growth Forecast Dean Maki , chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. last week raised his forecast for U.S. growth this year to 3.8 percent from a prior estimate of 3.5 percent. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg in the first week of April forecast the economy would expand at a 3 percent rate this year, compared with last year’s 2.4 percent contraction. The gauge of lagging indicators increased 0.2 percent last month. The index measures business lending, length of unemployment, service prices and ratios of labor costs, inventories and consumer credit. The Federal Reserve last week said the economy expanded “somewhat” across most of the U.S. in March as consumer spending and manufacturing improved, signaling the recovery is broadening without gaining much speed. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told lawmakers there were “significant restraints” on a recovery he said would be “moderate” over the coming quarters. Seven of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index are known ahead of time: stock prices, jobless claims, building permits, consumer expectations, the yield curve, factory hours and supplier delivery times. The Conference Board estimates new orders for consumer goods, bookings for capital goods and the money supply adjusted for inflation. To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net .

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Video: Boao Forum Begins in China With Yuan Revaluation Looming: Video

April 8, 2010

April 9 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Stephen Engle reports from the Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan, China, on the expected topics of discussion at the conference, which include China’s currency policy. Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan and Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson are among government leaders attending the conference, which runs April 8-11. Bloomberg’s Susan Li also speaks. (Source: Bloomberg)

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U.S. Economy: Consumer Confidence Improves, Home Prices Rise

March 30, 2010

By Courtney Schlisserman March 30 (Bloomberg) — Consumers in the U.S. gained confidence in March as the gloom over job prospects began to lift, indicating employment will be central to preserving the recent acceleration in spending. The Conference Board’s confidence index rose to 52.5, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, from 46.4 in February, according to figures today from the New York research group. Home prices unexpectedly rose in January for an eighth month, data also showed. “With signs of improvement in the labor market, confidence is more likely to be up than down in the next few months,” said James O’Sullivan , chief economist at MF Global Ltd. in New York, who forecast sentiment would pick up. “It’s still a low level of confidence.” Rising stock prices, a stabilizing housing market and fewer firings may be giving households hope that the recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s will be sustained. The 184,000 increase in payrolls economists project for this month shows it will take years for the economy to reverse the loss of 8.4 million jobs since the contraction began in December 2007. Stocks, which rose following the reports, erased gains as shares of financial and energy companies led the market lower. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.1 percent to 1,171.57 at 11:53 a.m. in New York. Economists forecast confidence would rise to 51 for the month from a previously reported 46, according to the median of 73 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 46.6 to 59. Confidence Averages The measure averaged 45 in 2009, and 97 during the expansion that ended in December 2007. Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose 0.3 percent in January, indicating the housing market is stabilizing as the economy expands. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index climbed from the prior month on a seasonally adjusted basis after a similar gain in December. Cheaper homes, low borrowing costs and government incentives have combined to support the housing market after its collapse helped trigger the recession. “It’s a temporary stabilization,” said Joseph Brusuelas , president of Brusuelas Analytics in Stamford, Connecticut, who had forecast a month-over-month gain in the adjusted index. “Foreclosures are still going to bite the market. Given the preponderance of negative housing data, we may see another leg down.” Data at Odds The S&P/Case-Shiller figures are at odds with other measures that have shown property values are again softening. A gauge of national single-family home values issued by First American CoreLogic’s LoanPerformance unit, the figures tracked by the Federal Reserve, showed prices dropped 1.9 percent in January, the fourth decrease in five months. The Conference Board’s measure of present conditions increased to 26, the highest level since May, from 21.7 in February. The gauge of expectations for the next six months rose to 70.2 from 62.9. The share of consumers who said jobs are plentiful advanced to 4.4 percent from 4 percent. The proportion of people who said jobs are hard to get decreased to 45.8, the fewest since August. More people also anticipated incomes and employment would improve in the next six months, the report showed. “Despite this month’s increase, consumers continue to express concern about current business and labor market conditions,” Lynn Franco , director of the Conference Board’s consumer research center, said in a statement. “Overall, consumer confidence levels have not changed significantly since last spring.” Spending Improves Consumer spending in February rose for a fifth consecutive month, figures from the Commerce Department yesterday showed. Best Buy Co. and Nike Inc., which have reported higher-than- anticipated profits, are among companies that may keep benefitting as the emerging recovery gives Americans the confidence to buy. Nike, the world’s largest maker of athletic shoes, said this month that third-quarter profit more than doubled as North America posted a sales increase for the first time in a year. Best Buy, the largest U.S. electronics retailer, last week reported sales climbed after the Richfield, Minnesota-based company cut prices on flat-panel TVs and offered discounts during the holidays. Fed officials this month signaled the U.S. recovery isn’t strong enough to stoke inflation, reduce unemployment quickly or justify an end to record-low interest rates. While the economy has “continued to strengthen,” policy makers said in a statement after their March 16 meeting that “employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls.” The projected increase in payrolls this month, based on the median forecasts of economists surveyed, would be the biggest in three years. Even so, the unemployment rate is projected to end the year at 9.5 percent, showing the labor market will continue to be a challenge to consumers this year, according to a survey of economists taken by Bloomberg earlier this month. To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington cschlisserma@bloomberg.net

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U.S. Stocks Rise as Economic Data, Earnings Offset Sovereign-Debt Concern

March 30, 2010

By Rita Nazareth March 30 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose as an improved outlook for industrial companies and better-than-estimated data on consumer confidence and home prices overshadowed concern government deficits will derail the economy recovery. 3M Co. rallied 3.5 percent as Morgan Stanley said profit may top estimates after Danaher Corp. boosted its earnings forecast, sending the maker of Craftsman tools shares up 4.6 percent. Home Depot Inc. and Lowe’s Cos. climbed as the S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 U.S. cities and the Conference Board’s confidence gauge topped economists’ estimates. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased less than 0.1 percent to 1,173.73 at 3:12 p.m. in New York after falling as much as 0.4 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 13.3 points, or 0.1 percent, to 10,909.16. About 11 stocks rose for every 10 that fell on U.S. stock exchanges. “We’re definitely off the bottom,” said Michael Mullaney , who helps manage $9 billion at Fiduciary Trust Co. in Boston. “There’s improvement in confidence and sentiment. People seem to be more comfortable about spending again. We’ll continue to see strength in stocks.” Benchmark indexes fluctuated earlier after Standard & Poor’s cut Iceland’s credit rating and Greece failed to sell half the 12-year bonds it offered, reigniting concern governments around the world struggle to finance growing budget deficits. The 20-city home-price index unexpectedly climbed 0.3 percent and the Conference Board’s sentiment gauge climbed to 52.5 in March from 46.4 in February. The Dow average rose to an 18-month high yesterday after reports showed Americans spent more for a fifth month and European confidence in the economic outlook improved. First-Quarter Rally The S&P 500 has rallied for the last four weeks, heading for a fourth straight quarterly advance, on speculation the economy is recovering from the worst contraction since the Great Depression. The benchmark index for U.S. stocks has climbed 5.3 percent since Dec. 31, its best first-quarter rally since 1998. Traders attributed part of the market’s gains today and yesterday to “window dressing,” in which investors buy shares of the best-performing companies at the end of the quarter to shore up their portfolios. “It’s just the end of the quarter,” said Mark Bronzo , an Irvington, New York-based money manager at Security Global Investors, which oversees $21 billion. “We’ve had a decent quarter so it’s probably a little bit of window dressing. The economic numbers continue to be a little better and today’s numbers were not an exception.” U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said U.S. employers soon may start hiring again after weathering the worst recession since the Great Depression. “The economy is getting stronger,” Geithner said yesterday in an interview on CNBC. “We’re probably just on the verge now of what we think will be a sustained period of job creation finally.” To contact the reporter on this story: Rita Nazareth in Sao Paulo at rnazareth@bloomberg.net .

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U.S. Stocks Erase Gains on Concern Debt Will Derail Recovery; Dollar Rises

March 30, 2010

By Michael P. Regan and Rita Nazareth March 30 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks erased an early rally and the dollar rose as concern deteriorating government finances will derail the economic recovery overshadowed better-than- estimated data on American consumer confidence and home prices. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped less than 0.1 percent at 12:54 p.m. in New York after climbing as much as 0.4 percent. Greek stocks and bonds slid as the government sold debt. The Iceland krona fell against the dollar and the OMX Iceland All-Share Index of stocks slid 0.9 percent as S&P cut the nation’s credit rating. The euro fell versus the dollar for the first time in three days. London’s FTSE 100 Index lost 0.7 percent as Gartmore Group Ltd. suspended a fund manager. An unexpected auction of Greek 12-year bonds garnered demand for less than half the debt offered as the nation’s seven-year notes fell in the first day of trading. Iceland’s local currency credit ratings were cut by S&P on concern foreign-exchange controls will restrict monetary flexibility and investment prospects. “There are lots of things to worry about as it relates to the fiscal situation of the countries of Europe,” said Keith Wirtz , who oversees $18 billion as chief investment officer at Fifth Third Asset Management Inc. in Cincinnati. “The market will likely be volatile to any piece of news that comes in.” The Dollar Index, which gauges the currency against six major trading partners, climbed 0.1 percent after earlier dropping 0.5 percent. The euro weakened 0.5 percent to 1.3421 against the dollar. Greece’s prospects of raising 35 billion euros ($47 billion) of debt this year to avoid a bailout from the European Union may hinge on how investors receive the nation’s seven-year bonds on their first day of trading. Greek Debt The 5 billion euros of notes fell after the country sold the securities yesterday without offering a yield premium over existing debt. The government got 6 billion euros of orders for the notes, compared with 15 billion euros for the 10-year bonds it issued on March 4, when it offered an extra 32 basis points, bankers involved in the deals said. The ASE index of Greek stocks tumbled 2 percent. Greece’s 10-year bonds fell, sending yields up 16 basis points, or 0.16 percentage point, to a one-week high of 6.45 percent. The difference in yield between 10-year Greek debt and 10-year German bunds increased 19 basis points to 335 basis points. “Greek bonds are getting killed,” said David Lutz , managing director of equity trading at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in Baltimore. “There’s a lot of concern on sovereign debt. People are worried that the situation is not resolved.” Gains Erased Earlier gains in U.S. equities came after reports showed home prices in 20 U.S. cities unexpectedly rose in January, indicating the housing market is stabilizing as the economy expands, and the Conference Board’s consumer sentiment index topped economist estimates. Most European stocks declined, erasing a 0.6 percent gain in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. Gartmore Group tumbled 31 percent after suspending Guillaume Rambourg , who helps oversee the U.K. money manager’s two biggest hedge funds, amid an internal investigation. The probe relates “to breaches of internal procedures regarding directing trades,” the firm said in a statement today. It isn’t connected with last week’s arrests of seven people suspected of insider trading, Gartmore said. Stocks rallied around the world earlier amid speculation the global economic rebound is strengthening. The Dubai’s DFM General rallied 1 percent while Romania’s BET index rose 0.9 percent and Kazakhstan’s KASE index climbed 0.8 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.7 percent to a 10- week high, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.2 percent and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of Hong Kong-traded shares jumped 1.6 percent. To contact the reporters for this story: Michael P. Regan in New York at mregan12@bloomberg.net ; Rita Nazareth in Sao Paulo at rnazareth@bloomberg.net .

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Stocks in U.S. Rise as Home Price, Confidence Data Spur Economic Optimism

March 30, 2010

By Rita Nazareth March 30 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index up for a third day, as better- than-forecast data on home prices and consumer confidence bolstered optimism the economic recovery is strengthening. Verizon Communications Inc. rallied 2.4 percent after the Wall Street Journal reported Apple Inc. is developing a version of its iPhone that will work over the Verizon Wireless network. Danaher Corp. advanced 4.3 percent as the maker of Craftsman tools increased its first-quarter profit forecast. Home Depot Inc. and Lowe’s Cos. climbed after the S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 U.S. cities and the Conference Board’s consumer sentiment index topped economists’ estimates. The S&P 500 gained 0.3 percent to 1,177.18 as of 10:04 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 35.82 points, or 0.3 percent, to 10,931.68. “Housing has certainly bottomed,” said Stanley Nabi , New York-based vice chairman of Silvercrest Asset Management Group, which oversees $8.5 billion. “It obviously won’t be a very strong upturn, but things are getting better. The market is not expensive. We expect stocks to deliver at least a 15 percent return over the next 12 months.” U.S. stocks rose yesterday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to an 18-month high, after consumer spending increased for a fifth month and European confidence in the economic outlook improved. Four-Quarter Rally The S&P 500 has rallied for the last four weeks, heading for a fourth straight quarterly advance, on speculation the economy is recovering from the worst contraction since the 1930s. Stocks could rise “another 3 to 5 percent,” Russ Koesterich , the San Francisco-based head of investment strategy for scientific active equities at BlackRock Inc., which manages $3.35 trillion in assets, told Bloomberg Television. “If you want to be aggressive, I wouldn’t get short the market right now. There are a couple of things that are still going to support you — lower rates, good macro environment and earnings estimates for the first quarter.” U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said U.S. employers soon may start hiring again after weathering the worst recession since the Great Depression. “The economy is getting stronger,” Geithner said yesterday in an interview on CNBC. “We’re probably just on the verge now of what we think will be a sustained period of job creation finally.” To contact the reporter on this story: Rita Nazareth in Sao Paulo at rnazareth@bloomberg.net .

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Home Prices in U.S. Probably Fell in January as Foreclosures Impair Market

March 29, 2010

By Shobhana Chandra March 30 (Bloomberg) — Home prices probably fell in January for the first time in eight months, one reason Americans are concerned about the state of the U.S. economy. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities dropped 0.3 percent in January from a month earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the median forecast of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. A gauge of consumer confidence this month recouped less than half of the 10.5-point drop in February, a report from the Conference Board may show. A decrease in prices underscores the threat a rising tide of foreclosures poses to the housing market, which helped trigger the worst recession since the 1930s. A real-estate relapse, combined with the loss of 8.4 million jobs since the economic slump began, would jolt sentiment and cut short an emerging recovery in household spending. “The worst outcome for the economy would be renewed declines in prices that really undercut the improvement in consumer confidence,” said Zach Pandl , an economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. “Part of what’s holding back consumer confidence is the only tepid recovery in the labor market.” The S&P/Case-Shiller figures are due at 9 a.m. New York time. Compared with January 2009, home prices fell 0.6 percent after a 3.1 percent year-over-year decline in December, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The New York-based Conference Board’s sentiment report is due at 10 a.m. The survey median calls for the group’s index to climb to 51 in March from 46 last month. Estimates ranged from 46.6 to 59. The measure averaged 45 in 2009, and 97 during the expansion that ended in December 2007. February Slump Last month’s reading of 46 was the lowest since April of last year, signaling concern about jobs. The 10.5-point decline was the biggest since February 2009. The housing rebound last year, due in part to a tax credit for first-time buyer, has helped lift builder shares. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Homebuilder Index has gained about 17 percent this year, outpacing a 5.2 percent rise in the broader S&P 500 Index. Some industry reports indicate renewed pressure. Twelve cities, including Boulder, Colorado, and Providence, Rhode Island, are showing extended declines in housing values, reversing signs of a recovery that began last year, according to Seattle-based Zillow.com , a real estate information provider. The number of markets in a “double dip” jumped in January from five a month earlier, said Zillow, which defines a double dip as five consecutive price drops after at least five straight monthly increases. The gains must have been preceded by a period where values fell in at least 10 of 12 months. Foreclosure Effect One reason home values are depressed is that foreclosed houses are adding to inventory of unsold homes, which compete with more expensive new housing. Foreclosures may climb to 4.5 million this year from 2.8 million in 2009, according to Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc. The Obama administration last week announced plans to help Americans avoid foreclosure, including subsidies for borrowers who owe more than their home is worth. The plan expands Treasury Department and Federal Housing Administration efforts and uses funds from the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. Some builders are finding ways to protect earnings. Lennar Corp., the third-biggest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, reported its quarterly loss narrowed after it cut administrative costs and reduced incentives to buyers. Miami-based Lennar also benefited from selling in communities with less competition from foreclosures, said Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller. “We are extremely well-positioned to navigate the rocky bottom and ultimate recovery that lies ahead,” Miller said on a March 24 conference call with investors. To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net

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Malaysian real estate conference for third annual gathering

March 18, 2010

18 Mar 2010 Kuala Lumpur will host the third annual National Real Estate Property Conference next month. The event, organised by the Malaysian Islamic Chamber of Commerce (MICC), will provide a cha…

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Appetite for investment in Thailand ‘still strong’

March 18, 2010

18 Mar 2010 Japanese investments in Thailand’s real estate sector are likely to continue at a steady pace. The Daiwa Investment Conference in Japan demonstrated the continued appetite and confidenc…

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Asian Shares Fall for First Time in Three Days on U.S. Consumer Confidence

February 23, 2010

By Jonathan Burgos and Shani Raja Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) — Asian stocks declined, dragging down the MSCI Asia Pacific Index for the first time in three days, as U.S. consumer confidence decreased to a 10-month low and as the stronger yen hurt Japanese exporters. Sony Corp., an electronics maker that receives 23 percent of sales from the U.S., retreated 2.4 percent in Tokyo, and Nissan Motor Co., a carmaker that gets 35 percent of revenue in North America, lost 3.1 percent. BHP Billiton Ltd., Australia’s top oil producer and the world’s largest mining company, dropped 1.8 percent after oil and metal prices fell. “The U.S. consumer confidence report has again created nervousness about the fragility of the recovery and its sustainability,” said Nader Naeimi , an investment strategist in Sydney at AMP Capital Investors, which oversees about $90 billion globally. “Nevertheless, the fundamentals remain strong and we are still seeing good earnings coming through.” The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.1 percent to 117.70 as of 9:15 a.m. in Tokyo, snapping gains of 3.2 percent in the past two days. The gauge has lost 7.2 percent from a 17-month high on Jan. 15 on concern governments will start withdrawing stimulus measures, and that Greece, Spain and Portugal will struggle to curb deficits. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 1.7 percent to 10,180.95. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 1.2 percent in Sydney. South Korea’s Kospi Index slipped 1 percent. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.2 percent. The measure retreated 1.2 percent in New York yesterday after the Conference Board’s confidence index for February decreased to the lowest level since April 2009, a report from the New York-based private research group showed. Confidence, Commodities Decline In addition, the Ifo institute in Munich said its survey of German business confidence unexpectedly fell for the first time in 11 months in February as the coldest winter in 14 years damped retail sales and construction. Crude oil for April delivery lost 1.8 percent in New York yesterday, the steepest decline in two weeks. The London Metal Exchange Index of six metals including copper and zinc dropped for a second day yesterday, slipping 2.3 percent. The dollar weakened to as low as 89.92 yen in Tokyo from 91.08 at the 3 p.m. close of stock trading yesterday. Japanese companies consider an average level of 92.90 as the dividing line between losses and profits, the Cabinet Office said on Feb. 19. To contact the reporters for this story: Jonathan Burgos in Singapore at jburgos4@bloomberg.net ; Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net .

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Alan Greenspan Calls Financial Crisis "By Far" The Worst In History

February 23, 2010

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the financial crisis was “by far” the worst in history and called the recovery from the global recession “extremely unbalanced.” The world economy has undergone “by far the greatest financial crisis globally ever,” Greenspan said today in a speech to the Credit Union National Association’s Governmental Affairs Conference in Washington.

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Ron Paul Tops U.S. Presidential Straw Poll at Conservative Conference

February 21, 2010

By Greg Stohr Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) — Representative Ron Paul of Texas won a straw poll for the 2012 Republican U.S. presidential nomination conducted among activists at the Conservative Action Political Conference . Paul, a former Libertarian Party presidential candidate, received 31 percent of the vote, followed by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 22 percent, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin with 7 percent and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty with 6 percent. Less than 25 percent of the more than 10,000 people attending the conference voted, according to poll results released by the event’s organizers. Students accounted for 48 percent of those voting. Young people were among Paul’s supporters when he sought the 2008 Republican nomination, with more than 200 Students for Ron Paul chapters formed at U.S. colleges. The conference featured speeches by several potential 2012 Republican presidential candidates, including Pawlenty, Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia. Gingrich yesterday predicted that Republicans will win control of both the House and the Senate in the November election and then the White House in 2012. He attacked proposed tax increases, saying “any tax increase is a job-killing measure and should be defeated” and described the Democratic leadership as a “secular, socialist machine.” Pawlenty Speech In his speech, Pawlenty said that if conservatives take power, “we need to do what we say we’re going to do.” Conservatives “need to go to Washington, D.C., and walk the walk.” Romney said President Barack Obama focused on overhauling the U.S. health-care system to the detriment of the economy. Obama didn’t know that “the number one cause of failure in the private sector is lack of focus, and that the first rule of turning around any troubled enterprise is focus, focus, focus,” Romney told the conference. “His energy should have been focused on fixing the economy and creating jobs. He failed to focus, and so he failed.” Palin, the 2008 Republican vice presidential candidate, didn’t attend. To contact the reporter on this story: Greg Stohr in Washington at gstohr@bloomberg.net .

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Distressed Property Experts Will Be Speaking at This Year’s Social Media Summit – Will You Be There?

February 18, 2010

RISMedia’s 2010 Real Estate Leadership Conference—‘The Real Estate Social Media Summit’—will provide the perfect backdrop for real estate professionals who are looking to capitalize, even in today’s market. Industry experts

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U.S. Leading Indicators Rise for 10th Month, Philadelphia Factories Expand

February 18, 2010

By Bob Willis and Courtney Schlisserman Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) — Manufacturing will remain at the forefront of a U.S. economic recovery that’s likely to extend at least through the middle of the year as companies invest in new equipment, reports today indicated. The New York-based Conference Board’s measure of the outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.3 percent in January. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index rose to 17.6 in February from 15.2 as a measure of orders surged to the highest level in more than five years. Readings greater than zero signal growth. The gains in production aimed at rebuilding inventories and satisfying increased global demand are leading to higher producer prices, a separate report showed. The strength in manufacturing has yet to translate into the hiring necessary to provide more impetus to the economic expansion. “The manufacturing sector continues to be the sole bright spot in the economic recovery,” said Thomas Simons , an economist at Jefferies & Co. Inc. in New York. “Until employment picks up, the consumer will still be reluctant to make major purchases.” U.S. stocks fluctuated as a rally in commodity shares and the improvement in manufacturing offset disappointing sales at Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and a rise in jobless claims. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.1 percent to 1,100.27 at 12:43 p.m. in New York. The 10-year Treasury note fell, pushing up the yield six basis points to 3.8 percent. Jobless Claims The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose last week, indicating improvement in the labor market will be uneven. Initial jobless claims rose by 31,000 to 473,000 in the week ended Feb. 13, the Labor Department in Washington said today. Economists forecast claims would fall to 438,000, according to the median of 42 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Prices paid to factories, farmers and other producers accelerated more than anticipated in January, Labor Department figures showed. The 1.4 percent rise in the producer price index followed a 0.4 percent increase in December and reflected in part higher energy costs. Raw materials prices surged 9.6 percent in January, the biggest increase since November 2006. Intermediate goods prices, such as lumber and steel mill products that require further processing, also rose. Economists forecast the Philadelphia Fed’s factory gauge would rise to 17, according to the median of 58 projections in a Bloomberg survey. Estimates ranged from zero to 23. The Fed bank’s gauge of factory employment rose to 7.4, the highest level since October 2007, while its new orders measure rose to the highest level since September 2004. Sentiment Gauge The overall index number isn’t composed of the individual measures, so some economists consider it a gauge of sentiment among manufacturers. “Business is back in business,” Caterpillar Inc. Chief Executive Officer James Owens said Feb. 11 at a news conference for the Business Council’s survey on CEO sentiment. “While we may be expecting a bit of a sluggish recovery, at least solid economic growth, stability in compensation and maybe some growth there, and increasing investment,” is occurring. Five of the 10 indicators in the Conference Board’s leading index contributed to the gain, led by the yield curve, supplier deliveries and the factory workweek. Four of the components fell. Higher jobless claims, a drop in the money supply and fewer building permits weighed on the index. Helping fuel the gain in the leading index last month was an increase in hours worked at U.S. factories, to 40.8 in January, from 40.6 in December, according to data from the U.S. Labor Department. That was the highest since August 2008. Manufacturing Jobs Manufacturers added 11,000 jobs in January, the first increase in three years, Labor Department figures showed on Feb. 5. Overall payrolls declined by 20,000 during the month as construction companies and state and local governments cut back. The world’s largest economy will probably expand at a 3 percent annual rate this quarter and 2.8 percent from April through June, according to the median estimates of economists surveyed by Bloomberg earlier this month. Eaton Corp. is seeing demand increase in its auto and trucks unit, which Chief Executive Officer Sandy Cutler said is typical early in an economic cycle. The global recovery will be a more muted rebound with higher-than-normal growth from underdeveloped countries, he said. “I think 2010 in many ways is a transitional year,” Cutler said in an interview. In the U.S., “part of what we are seeing now is the early cycle businesses are recovering.” To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net ; Courtney Schlisserman in Washington at cschlisserma@bloomberg.net

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Leading Economic Index in U.S. Probably Increased for 10th Straight Month

February 18, 2010

By Courtney Schlisserman Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) — The index of U.S. leading indicators probably rose in January for a 10th straight month, pointing to an economy that will keep expanding through the first half of this year, economists said before a report today. The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months rose 0.5 percent after climbing 1.1 percent in December, according to the median forecast of 53 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Other reports today may show producer prices increased in January and initial jobless claims fell last week. The leading index was probably led by an increase in worker hours as factories faced longer delivery times, indicating stronger demand that may help spur hiring in coming months. Faster economic growth will depend on employment gains that have yet to occur. “Things are still progressing in a favorable manner but it is going to be a more subdued recovery and it is going to take quite some time for the economy to be fully repaired,” said Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit. The report from the Conference Board, a New York-based private research group, is due at 10 a.m. New York time. Survey estimates ranged from a drop of 0.4 percent to a gain of 1 percent. Jobless Claims Figures from the Labor Department in Washington at 8:30 a.m. may show initial jobless claims fell to 438,000 last week from 440,000 the prior week, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 400,000 to 480,000. Another report from the Labor Department at the same time may show producer prices rose at a 0.8 percent pace last month, compared with a revised 0.4 percent in December. January’s jump was probably led by gains in commodity costs. Excluding food and energy, prices probably increased 0.1 percent, indicating inflation pressures remain subdued. Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region probably accelerated in February, pointing to a factory rebound that’s helping lead the economy out of recession. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index rose to 17 from a January reading of 15.2, according to the survey median before the 10 a.m. release. Readings greater than zero signal growth. The world’s largest economy will probably expand at a 3 percent annual rate this quarter and 2.8 percent from April through June, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed earlier this month. Five of Seven Seven of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index are known ahead of time: stock prices, jobless claims, building permits , consumer expectations, the yield curve, factory hours and supplier delivery times. Of those, five probably helped boost the index last month. The Conference Board estimates new orders for consumer goods, bookings for capital goods and the money supply adjusted for inflation. U.S. stocks rose last month as reports indicated the economy continued to improve and some companies posted earnings that exceeded analysts’ expectations. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index averaged 1123.58 in January, compared with 1110.38 a month earlier. A pickup in employee workweek and consumer sentiment also contributed to gains in the leading index. U.S. factory workers’ hours rose to 40.8 in January, the most since August 2008, from 40.6 in December, according to data from the Labor Department. The Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer expectations increased in January to 70.1. New Phase The global economy has entered a new phase of recovery, Cisco Systems Inc. Chief Executive Officer John Chambers said Feb. 4. The company, the biggest maker of networking equipment, forecast accelerating sales growth and said it will boost its workforce by as much as 3,000 as customers resume spending to deal with surging data traffic. “Almost every country is saying their momentum is better than it was before, and almost every business is saying it’s more optimistic,” Chambers said in an interview. “It shows a capital spending trend that’s hard to deny, on a global basis.” To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington at cschlisserma@bloomberg.net

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Leading Economic Index in U.S. Probably Increased for 10th Straight Month

February 18, 2010

By Courtney Schlisserman Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) — The index of U.S. leading indicators probably rose in January for a 10th straight month, pointing to an economy that will keep expanding through the first half of this year, economists said before a report today. The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months rose 0.5 percent after climbing 1.1 percent in December, according to the median forecast of 53 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Other reports today may show producer prices increased in January and initial jobless claims fell last week. The leading index was probably led by an increase in worker hours as factories faced longer delivery times, indicating stronger demand that may help spur hiring in coming months. Faster economic growth will depend on employment gains that have yet to occur. “Things are still progressing in a favorable manner but it is going to be a more subdued recovery and it is going to take quite some time for the economy to be fully repaired,” said Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit. The report from the Conference Board, a New York-based private research group, is due at 10 a.m. New York time. Survey estimates ranged from a drop of 0.4 percent to a gain of 1 percent. Jobless Claims Figures from the Labor Department in Washington at 8:30 a.m. may show initial jobless claims fell to 438,000 last week from 440,000 the prior week, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 400,000 to 480,000. Another report from the Labor Department at the same time may show producer prices rose at a 0.8 percent pace last month, compared with a revised 0.4 percent in December. January’s jump was probably led by gains in commodity costs. Excluding food and energy, prices probably increased 0.1 percent, indicating inflation pressures remain subdued. Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region probably accelerated in February, pointing to a factory rebound that’s helping lead the economy out of recession. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index rose to 17 from a January reading of 15.2, according to the survey median before the 10 a.m. release. Readings greater than zero signal growth. The world’s largest economy will probably expand at a 3 percent annual rate this quarter and 2.8 percent from April through June, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed earlier this month. Five of Seven Seven of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index are known ahead of time: stock prices, jobless claims, building permits , consumer expectations, the yield curve, factory hours and supplier delivery times. Of those, five probably helped boost the index last month. The Conference Board estimates new orders for consumer goods, bookings for capital goods and the money supply adjusted for inflation. U.S. stocks rose last month as reports indicated the economy continued to improve and some companies posted earnings that exceeded analysts’ expectations. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index averaged 1123.58 in January, compared with 1110.38 a month earlier. A pickup in employee workweek and consumer sentiment also contributed to gains in the leading index. U.S. factory workers’ hours rose to 40.8 in January, the most since August 2008, from 40.6 in December, according to data from the Labor Department. The Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer expectations increased in January to 70.1. New Phase The global economy has entered a new phase of recovery, Cisco Systems Inc. Chief Executive Officer John Chambers said Feb. 4. The company, the biggest maker of networking equipment, forecast accelerating sales growth and said it will boost its workforce by as much as 3,000 as customers resume spending to deal with surging data traffic. “Almost every country is saying their momentum is better than it was before, and almost every business is saying it’s more optimistic,” Chambers said in an interview. “It shows a capital spending trend that’s hard to deny, on a global basis.” To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington at cschlisserma@bloomberg.net

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Production, Home Starts Probably Climbed as U.S. Economy Grew in New Year

February 14, 2010

By Bob Willis Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) — The manufacturing rebound probably accelerated in January and homebuilding bounced back, adding to evidence the U.S. expansion began the new year without missing a beat, economists said before report this week. Production climbed 0.8 percent last month, the biggest gain since August, according to the median estimate of 65 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of a Federal Reserve report Feb. 17. Builders may have broken ground on 580,000 houses at an annual pace, up 4.1 percent from December when colder-than- average temperatures depressed construction. “The upswing in manufacturing is gaining traction,” said John Herrmann , chief economist at Herrmann Forecasting in Summit, New Jersey. “We’re seeing extremely strong export demand, an inventory cycle that is lifting output and replacement of high-tech products.” Gains in spending on new equipment will probably be sustained this year as companies aim to edge out the competition and take advantage of the strengthening economy. Combined with growing demand from overseas and efforts to replenish stockpiles following the biggest reduction on record may ensure that factories will keep expanding and hiring in coming months. Cisco Systems Inc ., the biggest maker of networking equipment, is among companies planning to hire. The San Jose, California-based firm this month predicted sales will accelerate and said it will boost its workforce by as much as 3,000 as customers resume spending to deal with surging data traffic. ‘Better’ Momentum “Almost every country is saying their momentum is better than it was before, and almost every business is saying it’s more optimistic,” Chief Executive Officer John Chambers , 60, said in a Feb. 4 interview. “It shows a capital spending trend that’s hard to deny, on a global basis.” Eaton Corp. , the maker of hydraulics and automotive valves, is seeing demand increase in its auto and trucks unit, as is typical early in an economic cycle, Chief Executive Officer Sandy Cutler said last week in an interview from company headquarters in Cleveland. The company forecasts it will capture about $1 billion in stimulus funds as the federal government rebuilds housing on military bases and aims to improve efficiency in federal buildings. The Obama administration’s $787 billion stimulus program is boosting infrastructure and green energy spending, and the government says it has funded as many as 2 million jobs. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Machinery Index, which includes companies such as Eaton and Caterpillar Inc., has dropped 1.4 percent so far this year, outperforming the broader S&P 500 Index , which is down 3.6 percent. Factory Surveys Private surveys have also signaled manufacturing is recovering. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index in January showed the fastest pace of expansion since 2004. Efforts to stabilize inventories accounted for 3.4 percentage points of the fourth quarter’s 5.7 percent pace of economic growth, according to figures from the Commerce Department. Factories are also benefiting from rising exports as global demand recovers after the worst slump since World War II ended. A 10 percent drop in the value of the dollar from a four-year high on March 3 against its major trading partners is making American goods more competitive. Exports have risen for eight consecutive months since reaching a three-year low in April. A report from the Commerce Department on Feb. 17 may show housing starts rose last month after dropping 4 percent in December. The extension in November of a first-time buyers’ tax credit and its expansion to include current homeowners may push housing demand up in the first half of the year. Improving Outlook In a sign the recovery has staying power, the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators for January may show a gain of 0.5 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed before the Feb. 18 report. It would be the 10th consecutive increase in the gauge of the economy’s performance over the next three to six months. Reflecting slowing job losses, the Labor Department may report on Feb. 18 that initial jobless claims last week fell to 430,000, the fewest since July 2008, from 440,000 the prior week, according to forecasts. Consumer prices, due Feb. 19, may show the cost of living rose 0.3 percent in January, according to the median of economists’ forecasts, following a 0.1 percent gain the prior month. Excluding food and fuel, prices probably rose 0.1 percent for a second month, the Labor Department’s report may show. Wholesale prices, due Feb. 18, probably rose 0.8 percent, while prices paid for imported goods, released the day before, may have increased 1 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed. Reports from the New York Fed on Feb. 16 and the Philadelphia Fed two days later may show factories in those regions expanded at a faster pace this month, according to economists surveyed. Finally, the Fed on Feb. 17 will release the minutes of its Jan. 27 monetary policy meeting. To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington bwillis@bloomberg.net .

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GoldenNetworking.com’s Distressed Investing Conference to Discuss London Real Estate Bubble

February 6, 2010

GoldenNetworking.com’s Distressed Investing Conference 2010-02-06 18:44:54 – The London Real Estate Bubble still hasn’t Popped; GoldenNetworking.com’s Distressed Investing Conference, Distressed Investing Leaders Forum 2010, to Analyze Recent

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GoldenNetworking.com’s Distressed Investing Conference to Discuss London Real Estate Bubble

February 6, 2010

GoldenNetworking.com’s Distressed Investing Conference 2010-02-06 18:44:54 – The London Real Estate Bubble still hasn’t Popped; GoldenNetworking.com’s Distressed Investing Conference, Distressed Investing Leaders Forum 2010, to Analyze Recent

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Plentiful-Job Gauge Shows Imminent Rebound in U.S. Payrolls: Chart of Day

January 29, 2010

By David Wilson Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — Economists who expect a revival of U.S. employment growth this month have history on their side, according to Thomas J. Lee , a JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist. Lee cited an index derived from the Conference Board’s monthly consumer-confidence surveys as evidence that a rebound is imminent. The indicator tracks the percentage of respondents who say jobs are plentiful. The CHART OF THE DAY shows the index’s readings since 1967 and highlights six times that they rebounded from a low. In each case, payrolls started to rise within two months after the gauge turned higher, Lee noted in a report yesterday. The jobs index rose to 4.3 percent this month after two straight months at 3.1 percent, its lowest reading since 1983. The rebound signals the number of jobs will start climbing by February, the report said. Employment will rise by 20,000 this month, according to the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Two-thirds of the 24 participants expected an increase. Payrolls dropped in December by 85,000, the 23rd decline in 24 months. Lee recommended that investors buy so-called domestic cyclicals, or shares of companies that have the most to gain from U.S. economic growth. He singled out financial stocks as especially attractive. (To save a copy of the chart, click here.) To contact the reporter on this story: David Wilson in New York at dwilson@bloomberg.net

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TMA Distressed Investing Conference Connects Capital Providers and …

January 8, 2010

2010: A Real Estate Odyssey – Experts examine how the commercial real estate industry will cope with a staggering amount of debt maturities. Details about the conference schedule and speakers are available at turnaround.org. …

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TMA Distressed Investing Conference Connects Capital Providers

January 8, 2010

With a fragile economic rebound under way, distressed asset investors and corporate restructuring specialists will discuss the new rules shaping business transactions at the 2010 Distressed Investing Conference, sponsored by the Turnaround Management

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TMA Distressed Investing Conference Connects Capital Providers and Restructuring Pros

January 8, 2010

CHICAGO, Jan. 8 /PRNewswire/ — With a fragile economic rebound under way, distressed asset investors and corporate restructuring specialists will discuss the new rules shaping business transactions at the 2010 Distressed Investing Conference, sponsored

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Video: Barrington Says `Bottom’ in Jobs Market to Continue: Video

January 8, 2010

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) — Linda Barrington, a labor economist at the Conference Board, talks to Bloomberg’s Betty Liu about the outlook for the U.S. jobs market in 2010. Barrington also discusses employment figures among different demographic groups. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Dollar Trades at Almost Two-Month High Versus Yen on U.S. Recovery Signs

December 29, 2009

By Yoshiaki Nohara and Ben Levisohn Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — The dollar traded near a two-month high against the yen on speculation the Federal Reserve will withdraw stimulus measures as the economy recovers. The dollar may gain against the euro for a third day before a report economists said will show U.S. manufacturing expanded in December for a fifth month, adding to signs the economy is gaining momentum. The yen may extend losses against its major counterparts on prospects Japan’s struggling economy will make the Bank of Japan the last central bank to raise interest rates. “Ongoing gains in the dollar are based on U.S. economic fundamentals and the Fed’s outlook,” said Daisaku Ueno , president at Gaitame.Com Research Institute Ltd. in Tokyo, a unit of Japan’s largest currency margin company. “It’s not that the Fed will raise rates soon, but it’s preparing tools to reduce an oversupply of dollars toward an exit. The dollar will be bought as long as this view remains intact.” The dollar bought 91.95 yen at 8:18 a.m. in Tokyo from 92.00 in New York yesterday, when it touched 92.08, the highest level since Oct. 27. The dollar traded at $1.4356 versus the euro from $1.4354. The euro was at 132 yen from 132.05 yen. The dollar has appreciated 4.5 percent versus the euro this month, trimming its 2009 decline to 2.7 percent. The greenback has fallen 30 percent against the euro this decade. Recovery Signs The Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing index gained to 54.0 in December from 53.6 in November, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey before the Tempe, Arizona-based Institute for Supply Management reports the data on Jan. 4. Readings above 50 signal expansion. Adding to economic recovery signs, the Conference Board’s confidence index increased this month to 52.9 from 50.6 in November, the New York-based research group said yesterday. An S&P/Case-Shiller report showed home prices climbed in October for a fifth month. Demand for the yen also weakened as the yield premium offered by 10-year Treasury notes over similar-maturity Japanese bonds was 2.49 percentage points yesterday. It reached 2.53 percentage points on Dec. 24, the highest level since December 2007 based on closing prices. The wider the difference, the less appealing Japan’s debt is compared with U.S. securities. “The dollar continues to be bought back as Treasury yields hold at high levels,” said Toshihiko Sakai , head of trading for foreign exchange and financial products at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking Corp. in Tokyo. “Outlooks between the Fed and the BOJ are diverging, boosting demand for the dollar-yen.” Futures trading in Chicago showed a 60 percent chance that the Fed will raise its zero to 0.25 percent target lending rate by at least a quarter-percentage point by its June meeting, up from 48 percent odds a week ago. To contact the reporters on this story: Yoshiaki Nohara in Tokyo at ynohara1@bloomberg.net ; Ben Levisohn in New York at blevisohn@bloomberg.net

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Raj Rajaratnam Tased Employees, Hired A Dwarf To Pull Office Pranks: WSJ

December 29, 2009

In a lengthy profile of hedge fund manager Raj Rajaratnam, who recently pleaded not guilty to insider trading charges brought by the SEC, the Wall Street Journal almost makes you want to apply for a job at Rajarantnam’s firm. While much has been written about Rajaratnam’s alleged web of informants and insider sources in Silicon Valley’s biggest companies, who knew the founder of Galleon Group was such a card? Here’s the WSJ : “At Galleon, Mr. Rajaratnam took his fondness for pranks and dares to a new level. When executives from stun-gun maker Taser International Inc. came to make an investment pitch around 2005, Mr. Rajaratnam offered $5,000 to anyone who’d agree to be shocked. Employees gathered around as two people propped up trader Keryn Limmer at the elbows and another person fired the weapon. Ms. Limmer’s legs buckled beneath her from the shock. Ms. Limmer declined to comment.” And there’s this: That same year, employees arrived at Galleon’s morning meeting to a surprise: In the conference room was a dwarf whom Mr. Rajaratnam introduced as an analyst hired to cover “small-cap” stocks. He was, in fact, an actor hired for an April Fool’s Day gag. For now, Rajaratnam will have to resort to jailhouse pranks — despite pleas from his lawyer, his $100 million bail has not yet been reduced . Rajaratnam’s lawyer argues that Bernie Madoff actually had less onerous bail terms. Read the entire WSJ piece .

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Jets-Bengals Game for NFL Playoff Spot Is Moved to Prime Time Sunday Night

December 28, 2009

By Erik Matuszewski Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) — The New York Jets will play the final game of the National Football League’s regular season in prime time as they try to claim a playoff berth for the first time since 2006. The Jan. 3 game between the Jets and Cincinnati Bengals has been moved to 8:30 p.m. New York time and will be televised nationally on General Electric Co.’s NBC network. The matchup was originally scheduled to start at 1 p.m. at Giants Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Jets (8-7) would earn a spot in the NFL’s postseason with a victory over the Bengals, who have already clinched a playoff berth as the American Football Conference North Division champions. Cincinnati has a 10-5 record and is competing with the New England Patriots for the No. 3 playoff seed in the AFC. The Sunday night matchup will be the final game of the NFL’s regular season. New York sent the Indianapolis Colts to their first loss of the season yesterday and is among five teams with 8-7 records competing for the AFC’s final two playoff spots. In another time change, the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles will start at 4:15 p.m. on Jan. 3 instead of 1 p.m. The game, televised by News Corp.’s Fox network, will determine the National Football Conference’s East Division winner. To contact the reporter on this story: Erik Matuszewski in New York at matuszewski@bloomberg.net

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Video: Friedman Says Clean Technology Is Next Global Industry: Video

December 18, 2009

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) — New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman talks with Bloomberg’s Ryan Chilcote about the outlook for clean technology and the challenges of finding a global consensus on carbon emission policies. Friedman, speaking from the Copenhagen Climate Conference, also discusses the role the U.S. should play in setting clean emission standards and the reluctance of the U.S. and China to make concessions for fear of benefiting the other. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Manufacturing in Philadelphia Area Expands as Sales, Employment Increase

December 17, 2009

By Vincent Del Giudice Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) — Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded in December at the fastest pace in more than four years as sales and employment grew. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index climbed to 20.4, higher than forecast, from 16.7 in November. Readings greater than zero signal growth and this month’s level was the highest since April 2005. Gains in orders slowed in December, limiting prospects for early 2010. Manufacturers have benefited from renewed demand for exports as well as record declines in inventories following the worst recession since the 1930s. The report contrasts with a similar gauge issued by the Fed Bank of New York this week that showed manufacturing in that region slowed more than economists anticipated. “The general state of manufacturing reflects improving inventory levels, business sentiment and capital expenditure outlays and very decent demand for exports,” said John Herrmann , chief economist at Herrmann Forecasting in Summit, New Jersey. “The economic recovery and the manufacturing recovery remain on track, with significant improvements expected for next year.” Economists forecast the Philadelphia Fed index would fall to 16 for December, according to the median of 58 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from 6.9 to 20.3. The bank’s district covers parts of Pennsylvania, New Jersey and all of Delaware. Other reports today showed the index on leading indicators increased for an eight consecutive month and jobless claims unexpectedly rose. The gauge of the economy’s outlook over the next three to six months climbed 0.9 percent in November, capping the longest series of gains since 2003-2004, the Conference Board, a New York-based private research group said. More Claims Initial jobless claims rose by 7,000 to 480,000 in the week ended Dec. 12, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The number of people receiving unemployment insurance was little changed in the prior week, while those getting extended payments jumped. Stocks fell after Citigroup Inc. sold stock at a discount and FedEx Corp.’s profit forecast trailed analyst estimates. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 0.8 percent to 1,100.09 at 10:40 a.m. in New York. Treasury securities rose. The Philadelphia Fed’s employment index rose to 6.3, the highest level October 2007, from minus 0.5. The shipments index fell to 15.3 from a two-year high of 15.7 in November. The index of prices paid jumped to 33.8 from 14.9. Prices received fell to minus 1.8 from minus 1.5. Lower Expectations The gauge of expectations for the next six months eased to 24.4 from 36.8 in November. The overall index number isn’t composed of the individual measures, and some economists consider it a gauge of business sentiment rather than manufacturing. Earlier in the week, figures from the Fed showed industrial production – a gauge of output at factories, mines and utilities — rose 0.8 percent in November, the fourth gain in five months. The plant-use rate increased to the highest since December 2008. Factories in the New York region expanded at the slowest pace in five months in December, another report this week showed. The Fed Bank of New York’s general economic index fell to 2.6 from 23.5 in November. While the measure can be volatile, the almost 21-point drop was the biggest since records began in 2001. Fed policy makers yesterday indicated the recovery is gaining strength and repeated a pledge to keep the benchmark interest rate almost at zero for an “extended period.” They kept the benchmark overnight lending rate between banks in range of zero and 0.25 percent, where it has been for a year. Earnings Forecast Honeywell International Inc. , the maker of aircraft instruments and industrial controls, yesterday forecast 2010 earnings that trails analyst estimates after the recession cut demand for business jets in the U.S. and Europe. Sales next year will benefit from a backlog in orders and “momentum coming out of 2009,” Chief Financial Officer Dave Anderson said on a conference call with analysts. “We should see a pretty good start to 2010.” In the Fed’s regional economic assessment, the beige book, which was released Dec. 2, the Philadelphia Fed said in its district “manufacturers, on balance, reported an increase in shipments and a steady rate of new orders. Retailers indicated that sales have been rising slowly, although they remained below the year-ago level for most stores.” — With assistance from Jack Kaskey in New York. Editor: Carlos Torres To contact the reporter on this story: Vincent Del Giudice in Washington at vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net

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Notre Dame Hires Cincinnati’s Kelly as Football Coach on Five-Year Accord

December 10, 2009

By Mason Levinson Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) — Brian Kelly was named football coach at the University of Notre Dame , leaving the University of Cincinnati after an undefeated season for the job of trying to rebuild one of the sport’s storied programs. Kelly replaces Charlie Weis , who was fired Nov. 30 after the Fighting Irish lost their final four games to finish a 6-6 season. Kelly, who signed a five-year contract, will take over on Dec. 14 and won’t coach Cincinnati against Florida on Jan. 1 in the Sugar Bowl, Notre Dame said in a statement on its Web site . “He brings to us a long and successful career as a head coach and I’m confident that he will have even greater success here,” Notre Dame President John I. Jenkins said in the statement. Kelly led the Bearcats to a 12-0 record and their second straight Big East Conference title in his third season at the school. Cincinnati finished third in college football’s Bowl Championship Series standings after rallying to beat Pittsburgh 45-44 with a last-minute touchdown. Kelly leaves Cincinnati with a 34-6 record, leading the Bearcats to their first consecutive 10-win seasons. He coached Central Michigan to a Mid-American Conference title in 2006. In 19 seasons as a head coach, he has a 171-57-2 record. He was named the Home Depot National Coach of the Year in 2009 and the Big East Conference Coach of the Year the past three years. Worse Record Weis went 35-27 in five seasons at the South Bend, Indiana, school, winning one bowl game and posting a lower winning percentage than predecessors Tyrone Willingham and Bob Davie . He was unable to restore the luster to a program that ranks third in college football history with 837 wins and won national championships under coaches such as Knute Rockne , Frank Leahy , Ara Parseghian and Lou Holtz . Notre Dame last week said it wouldn’t play in a bowl game this season, even though it was eligible to be invited with a non-losing record. The school has won once in its past 10 bowl appearances and captured the last of its 11 consensus national championships in 1988. Kelly, a native of Chelsea, Massachusetts, and a 1983 graduate of Assumption College, will be without two leading undergraduate members of this season’s team when Notre Dame opens its 2010 campaign. Quarterback Jimmy Clausen and receiver Golden Tate announced this week that they would skip their senior seasons and enter the National Football League draft. Kelly will be introduced at a press conference at 1:30 p.m. eastern time tomorrow, To contact the reporter on this story: Mason Levinson in New York at mlevinson@bloomberg.net .

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De Boer Asks Obama for `Ambitious’ Copenhagen Goal on Eve of Climate Talks

December 6, 2009

By Kim Chipman Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) — U.S. President Barack Obama should come to climate talks in Denmark with “strong” goals for cutting greenhouse gases and helping poor countries deal with global warming, United Nations climate chief Yvo de Boer said. “I hope that as part of the negotiating process he comes with an ambitious American target” to cut greenhouse-gas pollution and “‘strong financial support to reach out to developing countries,” de Boer told reporters in Copenhagen today on the eve of the two-week negotiations. Obama, facing pressure to assure other countries that the U.S. is moving toward a low-emissions economy, will attend the meeting on Dec. 18 along with about 100 other heads of state. The U.S. president had planned to arrive in Copenhagen on Dec. 9 during the first week of negotiations. De Boer said the change in schedule is welcome. “I’m happy that he’s coming toward the end of the conference together with other heads of state and government,” said de Boer, head of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. “It’s especially important for him to hear the concerns of small island developing nations, the countries that are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.” Obama expects a “meaningful” agreement in Copenhagen, where almost 200 countries are gathering in an attempt to hammer out terms for a new international treaty to control climate change, the U.S. administration said in a statement last week. To contact the reporter on this story: Kim Chipman in Copenhagen at KChipman@bloomberg.net

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