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ElBaradei’s Campaign to End Mubarak’s Rule Spurned by Egyptian Opposition

by on May 18, 2010

By Daniel Williams May 18 (Bloomberg) — Hundreds of flag-waving Egyptians greeted Mohamed ElBaradei at Cairo’s airport on Feb. 19. The former head of the United Nations atomic-energy agency was coming home to lead a movement to oust President Hosni Mubarak , and opposition leaders rallied in support. Three months later, some activists have abandoned the 2005 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, calling him aloof, absent and out of touch. And his campaign has failed so far to pressure Mubarak into adopting new regulations allowing independent candidates, including ElBaradei, to run in next year’s election. ElBaradei’s endeavor is “a fiasco,” said Hisham Kassem , a former newspaper publisher and member of Kifaya, a group of anti-Mubarak activists. “Everyone has his own agenda.” If ElBaradei fails, it would be the latest in a series of unsuccessful efforts to end 28 years of one-man rule and return Egypt to democracy for the first time since 1952, when the military overthrew a constitutional monarchy. While Mubarak supporters say his strong hand maintains stability, critics say the price has been corruption, oligarchy and persistent labor unrest in a country operating since 1981 under a state of emergency that permits arbitrary arrest, detention without trial and suppression of political associations and demonstrations. The critics also say stability is illusory. Forty-two percent of Egyptians live in poverty, and there has been an upsurge in illegal protests, with more than 1.7 million workers participating in some 1,900 strikes and other actions between 2004 and 2008, according to the Washington-based Solidarity Center , a labor-rights group. Nuclear Proliferation ElBaradei, 67, returned to Egypt after a long career abroad. He served as director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna for 12 years, sharing the Nobel prize with the agency for work to prevent nuclear proliferation for military use. A former diplomat, he’s never held elected office. “Egyptians are looking for a savior to pull them out of their misery,” Kassem said. ElBaradei formed the National Association for Change, an umbrella group designed to pressure Mubarak, in February. He has called for term limits on the presidency and said Egyptians should boycott next year’s elections if Mubarak doesn’t change the constitution. Under current rules, presidential candidates must be members of established parties, including Mubarak’s National Democratic Party , or be endorsed by parliament and municipal councils, all dominated by the NDP. Grooming a Successor Mubarak, 82 and ailing, hasn’t said if he’ll seek another six-year term. Opposition groups say he is grooming his son Gamal , 47, to succeed him, a claim both men deny. After initial expressions of support, groups that might help channel public enthusiasm for ElBaradei into a mass movement now display little interest in joining him. The Muslim Brotherhood , Egypt’s largest opposition faction, which is legally banned from politics, isn’t willing to back ElBaradei even though it agrees with his call for open elections, spokesman Ali Abdul-Fattah said. “He doesn’t speak the language of the people, and he wants to manage things as an outsider instead of getting down to the struggle,” Abdul-Fattah said. “In any case, there is no possibility for change.” Lawyer Ayman Nour , who ran for president in 2005 as head of the Tomorrow Party and got 7 percent of the vote, joined ElBaradei’s group initially and then split off. ElBaradei “just showed up in February,” Nour said, adding he plans to run again in 2011. “The movement can’t be based on one personality. For instance, our party has a history. He is just an individual.” Reject Leadership Officially recognized parties, which have little following in Egypt, reject ElBaradei’s leadership. The socialist Tagammu Party, which was founded in 1977 and has one seat in parliament, forbade its members from joining ElBaradei’s association. “We worked for years and now we are expected to back this phenomenon? No,” said Hussein Abdul Razek, a top official. The April 6 Youth Movement, a collection of young people who lobby for democracy on the Internet , rallied around ElBaradei at first and now has become frustrated by his performance, said its leader Ahmed Maher. “Time is passing, everyone’s ambitions are clashing and ElBaradei is just talking,” he said. “It’s a huge disappointment, but we still have hope.” An ElBaradei representative, Hassan Nafaa, a Cairo University professor who coordinates the NAC, acknowledged ElBaradei must do more to mobilize support. ‘Complicated’ Politics “Egyptian politics are complicated,” he said during a May 3 rally protesting Mubarak’s plan to add two more years to the state of emergency. “It’s hard to keep people together.” The demonstration drew about 100 participants, who mainly spent their time debating whether to break through police lines and march on parliament or give television interviews. ElBaradei was absent, traveling in the U.S. “We have to do better organizing; activity must go on even in ElBaradei’s absence,” Nafaa said, adding ElBaradei would soon promote civil disobedience. A second protest, hastily convened on May 12 when Mubarak extended the emergency law, also drew about 100 demonstrators, many repeaters from May 3. ElBaradei, still abroad, Twittered that the extension was a “continuation of repression” and a “violation” of human rights. He should spend more time in Egypt and lead demonstrations, said the youth movement’s Maher. “We can’t have an opposition in the transit lounge,” he said. To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Williams in Cairo at dwilliams41@bloomberg.net .

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ElBaradei’s Campaign to End Mubarak’s Rule Spurned by Egyptian Opposition

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At Least 35 Killed in Baghdad Blasts; Iran, Egyptian Embassies Targeted

by on April 4, 2010

By Daniel Williams April 4 (Bloomberg) — Three bombs exploded in Baghdad today as political parties hold talks on forming a new Iraqi government following last month’s parliamentary elections. Al-Jazeera, an Arabic language satellite television channel, said the car bombs, which hit almost simultaneously this morning, killed at least 30 people. One exploded outside the Iranian embassy, another in western Mansour district, and a third detonated near the German ambassador’s residence on a street that houses several other legations. Men disguised as soldiers yesterday killed 25 people in an assault on a village on the southern outskirts of Baghdad. Talks among major political factions to form a new government continue. The March 7 vote followed largely ethnic and religious lines and no party won a majority of the 325 seats at stake. Former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi’s secular Iraqiya bloc won 91 seats to the 89 secured by incumbent Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s Shiite State of Law group. The two men are rivals to become prime minister and need allies to obtain a majority of 163 seats. Delays in forming a new government may hamper President Barack Obama’s plan to reduce U.S. troop strength in Iraq from 96,000 to 50,000 by August. The Iraqi government that emerges will face disputes over sharing oil revenue among regions and whether to include the oil-rich city of Kirkuk in the Kurdish autonomous region, as well as coping with hostilities between Shiites and Sunnis. To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Williams in Cairo at dwilliams41@bloomberg.net .

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At Least 35 Killed in Baghdad Blasts; Iran, Egyptian Embassies Targeted

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Iraqi Politicians Jockey for Position Before Snapshot of Election Results

March 9, 2010

By Caroline Alexander and Daniel Williams March 9 (Bloomberg) — Political maneuvering was under way in Iraq before initial results from the parliamentary election are announced, with early indications that no party would win a majority and tough coalition bargaining lies ahead. Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi told a televised news conference in Baghdad that the next president of the country must be an Arab. “This country is Arab and an Arab should be on top,” he said. The current president is Kurdish politician Jalal Talabani , who has already declared his intention to stay on in the job. The president is elected by parliament. The main competitors are Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law alliance and the Iraqiya party of a former premier, Ayad Allawi . Coalition-building is essential to a U.S. plan to withdraw its troops as Iraq establishes a stable government. American officials insist the pullout will go ahead. Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission said it will announce preliminary results later today as districts that have tallied at least 30 percent of their votes report to Baghdad. Final results may not be certified until the end of the month. Turnout was 62.4 percent, the panel said. Al-Maliki’s and Allawi’s lists of candidates may each get less than a third of the 325 seats at stake, according to reports from Iraqi media. Allawi’s list is “neck and neck” with al-Maliki’s bloc, Allawi’s official spokeswoman, Maysoon al-Damluji, said today in a phone interview from Baghdad. “We are doing pretty well.” Al-Damluji said that Allawi’s group had success with voters in Baghdad and the western provinces. She declined to provide details until results are released. Al-Damluji is a lawmaker in the current parliament and a member of Allawi’s alliance. Sectarian, Ethnic Initial signs are that the election is breaking along sectarian and ethnic bounds. Al-Maliki’s alliance is leading in nine predominately Shiite Muslim provinces in the south, Sumaria Television reported. Abbas al-Bayati, an official from al- Maliki’s coalition, told the Associated Press the group also did well in the mixed city of Baghdad. Allawi’s Iraqiya, which campaigned for a non-sectarian Iraq, was winning in four mainly Sunni Muslim provinces in the center and north, Sumaria and the Iraq News Agency reported. Al- Hashemi is a Sunni from the Iraqiya party. Kurdish parties were sweeping the Kurds’ autonomous zone in the far northeast. Other Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni parties were running behind, the Iraqi broadcaster and news agency said. Oil Revenue Top government jobs, including the head of the influential Oil Ministry, will be at stake. The ruling coalition that emerges from the election will have to resolve disputes over sharing oil revenue among regions and whether to include the oil-rich city of Kirkuk in the Kurdish autonomous region in the north, as well as cope with violence between Shiites and Sunnis. Iraq’s 115 billion-barrel oil reserves place it third behind Saudi Arabia and Iran. The country pumped about 2.4 million barrels a day last month, according to Bloomberg estimates. Once official results are announced, Talabani will have 15 days to convene a new parliament. The first session elects a speaker and two deputy speakers. Next, a new president is elected with a two-thirds majority. The new president has 15 days to task the leader of the largest bloc with forming a government. U.S. Troops Violence may escalate if the majority Shiites and the minority Sunni Muslims and Kurds aren’t all included in a coalition, said Ahmed Ali, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy . That would thwart U.S. ambitions to leave a stable Iraq as it withdraws its troops. U.S. troop strength will shrink from 96,000 to 50,000 by Sept. 1. All U.S. forces gone from Iraq by the end of 2011, under a schedule set last year by President Barack Obama . Parties will probably spend months haggling over the makeup of a coalition government, said Wael Abdel Latif of the National Iraqi Alliance, a major Shiite Muslim bloc. “The formation of the government may face big problems if the results are close and there is no clear winner,” Latif said in an interview yesterday in Baghdad. Preliminary results showed “a very close race,” he said. It could take more than six months to form a government, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said in a March 3 report. The parliamentary vote was the second since Saddam Hussein’s overthrow by U.S. forces in 2003. More than 6,200 candidates competed for seats in the legislature, the Council of Representatives. To contact the reporters on this story: Caroline Alexander in London at calexander1@bloomberg.net ; Daniel Williams in Cairo at dwilliams41@bloomberg.net .

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Iraqi Parliamentary Vote Result to Be Released as Coalition Haggling Looms

March 8, 2010

By Kadhim Ajrash, Caroline Alexander and Daniel Williams March 9 (Bloomberg) — The first official results from Iraq’s March 7 parliamentary elections will be released today as political leaders say they don’t expect a clear winner. Parties may spend months haggling over the makeup of a coalition government, said Wael Abdel Latif of the National Iraqi Alliance, a major Shiite Muslim bloc that competed against the Shiite-led group of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki . “The formation of the government may face big problems if the results are close and there is no clear winner,” Latif said in an interview yesterday in Baghdad. Preliminary results showed “a very close race,” he said. Polling sites will release results once officials have tallied at least 30 percent of the votes cast there, said Hamdiya Husseini, a member of Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission. Final results may not be known until the end of the month. Turnout was 62.4 percent, she said. The panel had put participation in the 2005 parliamentary election at 76 percent. Al-Maliki’s alliance was leading in nine of the country’s 18 provinces, Agence France-Presse reported, citing unofficial estimates by local officials. It said the key results weren’t yet available for Baghdad, where attacks yesterday killed 38 people. Violence may escalate if the country’s main ethnic and religious groups, the majority Shiites and the minority Sunni Muslims and Kurds, aren’t included in a coalition, said Ahmed Ali, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy . That would thwart U.S. ambitions to leave a stable Iraq as it withdraws its troops. Violence ‘Remarkably Low’ The election showed democracy is firmly established in Iraq and unlikely to be crippled by delays in forming a new government, said the top United Nations envoy to Iraq, Ad Melkert of the Netherlands, who leads the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq . There were no indications of “massive” or “systemic” irregularities in the voting, and incidents of violence were “remarkably low,” he said. Iraqi security forces showed a steady increase in their ability to help run a national election, he added. Turnout ranged from 80 percent in Dohuk province, in the far north, to 50 percent in Maysan, in the southeast, while in Baghdad, 53 percent of registered voters cast ballots, and about 272,000 Iraqis abroad also voted, Husseini said yesterday. About 19 million of Iraq’s estimated 30 million citizens registered to cast ballots. The parliamentary vote was the second since Saddam Hussein’s overthrow by U.S. forces in 2003. More than 6,200 candidates competed for seats in the 325-member legislature. ‘All Components’ “We need about two months to form a majority government,” Abbas al-Bayati, a member of al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition, said yesterday in an interview in Baghdad. “We want a majority government that will include all the components of the nation.” Terrorist groups linked to al-Qaeda had vowed to attack voters on their way to the polls. Attacks were reported in Baghdad, Fallujah, Baquba and Samarra, AFP said. “There were security issues but they weren’t significant enough to derail the polls, or to affect the legitimacy, which is crucial for the incoming government,” Gala Riani , Middle East analyst for IHS Global Insight in London, said in a telephone interview. Voter registration was a bigger problem than security, said Ranj Alaaldin, a Middle East expert from the London School of Economics who monitored the election with the London-based Next Century Foundation , a conflict resolution advisory group. Some voters found that their names weren’t on the official registry, he said by e-mail. Oil Disputes The ruling coalition that emerges will have to resolve disputes over sharing oil revenue among regions and whether to include the oil-rich city of Kirkuk in the Kurdish autonomous region in the north, as well as cope with violence between Shiites and Sunnis. Iraq’s 115 billion-barrel oil reserves place it third behind Saudi Arabia and Iran. The country pumped about 2.4 million barrels a day last month, according to Bloomberg estimates. Iraq’s Kurds, who backed al-Maliki after the last election, have since feuded with him over oil money and control of Kirkuk. The main Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, formed an alliance that was challenged by a new party called Change. Al-Maliki predicted last week that no party would win a majority. A Shiite alliance that brought him to power in 2005 has disintegrated and his coalition was battling for Shiite votes with former allies now in the National Iraqi Alliance. Wooing Sunnis Sunnis, who boycotted the 2005 election, were wooed by an array of Islamic parties. Former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi is leading the Iraqiya party, which advocates non-sectarian politics. It could take more than six months to form a government, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said in a March 3 report. U.S. troops have handed most security duties to Iraqi forces, and U.S. troop strength will shrink from 96,000 to 50,000 by Sept. 1, with all U.S. forces gone from Iraq by the end of 2011, under a schedule set last year by U.S. President Barack Obama . American officials insist the pullout will go ahead and Iraqi officials say they are taking over. To contact the reporters on this story: Kadhim Ajrash in Baghdad through the Dubai newsroom or mchmaytelli@bloomberg.net ; Caroline Alexander in London at calexander1@bloomberg.net ; Daniel Williams in Cairo at dwilliams41@bloomberg.net .

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Egypt’s Mubarak in `Satisfactory’ Condition Following Gallbladder Surgery

March 7, 2010

By Daniel Williams and Holger Elfes March 7 (Bloomberg) — Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is in a “satisfactory” condition after surgeons removed his gallbladder without complications, the physician who led the operating team and Egypt’s health minister said. “He is clinically stable, with normal vital signs, and his condition is really good this morning,” Markus Beuchler of Heidelberg University Hospital in Germany and Hatem El Gabaly , the chief of the Egyptian Ministry of Health, said in an e- mailed statement today. A polyp from Mubarak’s small intestine also was discovered yesterday and taken out, Buechler said in an earlier statement “I am fully satisfied with the performance and the outcome of the surgical intervention,” he said. No cancer was found in the removed tissue, he said. Mubarak, 81, was in an intensive care unit and speaking to family members and doctors. He will remain hospitalized “in the following days until he is fully recovered,” Buechler said. Mubarak yesterday temporarily handed power to Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif , 58, who will carry out the role of president until Mubarak is able to resume his duties, the Information Ministry said. Egypt has no vice president. Former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl had the same surgery at the southern German facility last month and was discharged three weeks later, hospital spokeswoman Annette Tuffs said. ‘Inflammation’ Mubarak has ruled the Middle East’s most populous country for 28 years. His reign is the longest since the military overthrew Egypt’s monarchy in 1952. He had been visiting Germany for talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel . During an examination March 5, Mubarak was found to have “chronic inflammation of the gallbladder,” Egypt’s government press office said. Cabinet spokesman Magdy Rady said Nazif will stay in Egypt until Mubarak is back. “It’s business as usual,” Rady said. “There’s no worries about Nazif for Mubarak,” said Hisham Kassem , a former newspaper publisher and opposition activist. “There won’t be a coup.” Nazif was appointed prime minister in July 2004. He was minister of communications and information technology in the previous government. Liberalization of Egypt’s economy has been a main thrust of his time in office. In June 2004, Mubarak underwent surgery in Munich for a slipped disc. He put presidential powers in the hands of then- Prime Minister Atef Obeid for 10 days. Peace Treaty Mubarak has held office since the assassination of Anwar Sadat in 1981 during a military parade by soldiers belonging to an underground Islamic group. He has kept to a peace treaty with Israel that took effect in 1979 and in the past two years tried to mediate between feuding Palestinians in hopes of getting peace talks for a Palestinian state next to Israel under way. Presidential elections are scheduled for 2011. Mubarak has kept succession possibilities firmly linked to his ruling National Democratic Party. Rules introduced in 2006 require presidential candidates to belong to the NDP or established opposition parties, which have virtually no popular support. If an independent wants to run, he must win endorsement by parliament and local councils, all dominated by the NDP. Egypt’s biggest opposition group, the Muslim Brotherhood, isn’t recognized by the government as a political party. Mubarak reins in dissent through emergency laws decreed in 1981 that prohibit besmirching Egypt’s image, permit secret trials to be held and allow detentions without trial. Speculation on a successor to Mubarak has circulated since 2003, when he fainted during a session of parliament. In Cairo, democratic activists have campaigned to prevent a possible dynastic succession to Mubarak’s son Gamal, 47. He heads the NDP’s policy committee. Gamal denies he’s running for president. Mohammed ElBaradei , former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency , is campaigning for constitutional changes that would widen the field for presidential candidates. During a visit to Cairo last month, ElBaradei formed a group of 30 opposition politicians and activists to press for new rules. To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Williams in Cairo at Dwailliams41@bloomberg.net ; Holger Elfes in Dusseldorf at helfes@bloomberg.net

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Egypt’s Mubarak Has Inflamed Gallbladder Removed, Temporarily Yields Power

March 6, 2010

By Daniel Williams and Holger Elfes March 6 (Bloomberg) — Egypt President Hosni Mubarak’s inflamed gallbladder was successfully removed today during an operation in Germany, Heidelberg University Hospital said. “The surgery was successful,” hospital spokeswoman Annette Tuffs said. Egypt’s government Middle East News Agency said Mubarak, 81, was in an intensive care unit following the operation and speaking to family members and doctors. Mubarak temporarily handed power to Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif , who will carry out the presidential role until the longtime leader is able to resume his duties, the government information ministry said. In Egypt, there is no vice president. Mubarak is conscious and communicating with his family and medical team, Marcus Buchler, a doctor at the Heidelberg Medical Center, said in a statement. The Egyptian leader will stay in the hospital “in the following days until he has fully recovered,” the statement said. Former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl had the same surgery done at the southern Germany facility last month and was discharged three weeks later, Tuffs said in a telephone interview. It’s “perfectly possible” to live without a gallbladder, she said. 28-Year Rule Mubarak has ruled the Middle East’s most populous country for 28 years. His reign is the longest since the military overthrew Egypt’s monarchy in 1952. He had been visiting Germany for talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel . During an examination yesterday, Mubarak was found to have “chronic inflammation of the gallbladder,” Egypt’s government press office said. Magdy Rady , the cabinet spokesman, said Nazif, 58, will stay in Egypt until Mubarak is back. “It’s business as usual,” Rady said. “There’s no worries about Nazif for Mubarak,” said Hisham Kassem , a former newspaper publisher and opposition activist. “There won’t be a coup.” Nazif was appointed prime minister in July 2004. He was Minister of Communications and Information Technology in the previous government. Liberalization of Egypt’s economy has been a main thrust of his time in office. Munich Surgery In June 2004, Mubarak underwent surgery in Munich for a slipped disc. He put presidential powers in the hands of then- Prime Minister Atef Obeid for 10 days. Mubarak has been in office since 1981 following the assassination of Anwar Sadat during a military parade by soldiers belonging to an underground Islamic group. He has kept to the peace treaty with Israel that took effect in 1979 and in the past two years tried to mediate between feuding Palestinians in hopes of getting peace talks for a Palestinian state next to Israel under way. Presidential elections are scheduled for 2011. The aging leader has kept succession possibilities firmly linked to his ruling National Democratic Party. Rules introduced in 2006 require presidential candidates to belong to the NDP or established opposition parties, which have virtually no popular support. If an independent wants to run, he must win endorsement by parliament and local councils, all dominated by the NDP. The country’s biggest opposition group, the Muslim Brotherhood, isn’t recognized by the government as a political party. Emergency Laws Mubarak reins in dissent through emergency laws decreed in 1981 that prohibit besmirching Egypt’s image, permit secret trials to be held and allow jailings without trial. Speculation on a successor to Mubarak has swirled since 2003, when he fainted during a session of parliament. In Cairo, democratic activists have campaigned to prevent a possible dynastic succession to Mubarak’s son Gamal, 47. He heads the NDP’s policy committee. Gamal denies he’s running for president. Mohammed ElBaradei , former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is campaigning for constitutional changes that would widen the field for presidential candidates. During a visit to Cairo last month, ElBaradei formed a group of 30 opposition politicians and activists to press for new rules. To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Williams in Cairo at Dwailliams41@bloomberg.net Holger Elfes in Dusseldorf at helfes@bloomberg.net

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Iraq’s `Wide-Open’ Election Could Pose Threat to Obama’s Withdrawal Plans

March 6, 2010

By Caroline Alexander and Daniel Williams March 7 (Bloomberg) — Iraq votes today in a parliamentary election that is likely to produce months of political wrangling over a new governing coalition, at a time Iraqis are taking over responsibility for security as U.S. troops leave the country. More than 6,200 candidates from 86 political groupings will seek seats in the 325-member legislature. It is the second national election since the U.S.-led invasion that ousted Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein in 2003. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, seeking re-election on a record of reducing sectarian violence, says he expects to win while acknowledging he won’t get enough support to govern alone. It took al-Maliki six months to form a government after the December 2005 election , and since then his Shiite Muslim alliance has splintered. The premier faces competition from rival Shiite parties backed by Iran, Kurds from the country’s north and parties appealing to secularist Iraqis and religious Sunni Muslims. “If an inclusive coalition doesn’t emerge, the backlash could be very violent,” forcing the U.S. to reconsider its withdrawal plans, said Ahmed Ali , an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy . Under a schedule set by President Barack Obama last year, about half the 96,000 U.S. troops currently in Iraq will leave by the end of August, and the rest will withdraw in 2011. The withdrawal is “strongly on track,” White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters in Washington on March 4. Compromise Al-Maliki said in an interview posted last week on France 24 television’s Web site that “in late 2011, there must not be a single U.S. soldier left in Iraq,” and that the Iraqi army will be ready to take over. He said his State of the Law alliance will need coalition partners to govern Iraq, which holds the world’s third-largest reserves of oil. Political fragmentation may lead the parties to “do what they did in 2005 — go for the weakest compromise candidate to prevent a strong prime minister,” said Joost Hilterman , an analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group . “These elections are wide open.” U.S. ambitions to leave a peaceful and stable Iraq may be threatened by post-election deadlock, as well as by a recurrence of the sectarian violence that has been abating since 2007. In the run-up to elections, attacks increased. A car bomb near a Shiite Muslim shrine in Iraq’s holy city of Najaf killed seven people yesterday. On March 4, a roadside bomb and two suicide explosions killed at least 12 people at three separate polling stations where voters eligible for early balloting, including security forces due to be policing today’s vote, were casting ballots. Texting Voters The day before, suicide bombings in the central city of Baquba, a mixed Shiite and Sunni Muslim city, killed at least 29 people. Iraqi government figures show 352 people were killed in attacks in February, 80 percent more than the previous month. Polling stations in Iraq open at 7 a.m. today and are due to close at 5 p.m., with initial results expected tomorrow and final results by the end of March. The election will be the biggest in Iraq’s history, with 18.9 million people registered to vote at 64,000 polling stations, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees . Baghdad is plastered with thousands of banners and posters, and candidates have also sought support via television and radio advertisements, Web sites and text messages. Politics are fragmented largely along ethnic and religious lines. Al-Maliki’s former Shiite allies have formed the National Iraqi Alliance, which also includes the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr , who is believed to be living in Iran. The group was set up in Iran with the Islamic republic’s backing, according to Reidar Visser , an Iraq analyst at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs in Oslo. Iran Influence The U.S. has said it suspects Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons, and has also accused it of training militias that have attacked American troops in Iraq. Iranian officials have denied both accusations. Iran’s influence over Iraqi politics is on the rise, said Marina Ottaway , director of the Middle East program at Washington’s Carnegie Endowment for International Peace . “The U.S. presence is transitory,” said Ottaway. “Iran is in Iraq to stay. In the long run, Iran will be more influential.” Other main election alliances include the Iraqiya movement of former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi , which is advocating non- sectarian politics. Sunni Muslims, who boycotted the 2005 election, are being wooed by an array of Islamic parties. Iraq’s Kurds, who enjoy semi-autonomy in the north , backed al-Maliki after the last election though they’ve since feuded over sharing oil revenue and settling internal boundaries. The two main Kurdish parties, the Kurdish Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, have formed an election alliance that is being challenged by a new party called Change. “I don’t think the candidates will be able to solve intractable crises unless they first agree to end the state of intolerance,” said Malak Hussein, 47, an eye doctor at a clinic in central Baghdad. To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Williams in Cairo at dwilliams41@bloomberg.net . Caroline Alexander in London at calexander1@bloomberg.net

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Mubarak Having Inflamed Gallbladder Removed, Temporarily Transfers Power

March 6, 2010

By Daniel Williams and Holger Elfes March 6 (Bloomberg) — An operation today to remove Egypt President Hosni Mubarak ’s inflamed gallbladder was a success, the state-run Middle East News Agency reported. Mubarak, 81, underwent surgery to remove the gallbladder at Heidelberg University Hospital in southern Germany. Mubarak has temporarily handed power over to Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif , who will carry out the presidential role until he is able to resume his duties, the government information ministry said. In Egypt, there is no vice president. Former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl had the same surgery done in the Heidelberg facility last month and was discharged three weeks later, hospital spokeswoman Annette Tuffs said. It’s “perfectly possible” to live without a gallbladder, she said. Calls to the hospital after the surgery rang busy repeatedly. Mubarak, who has ruled Egypt for 28 years — the longest since the military overthrew Egypt’s monarchy in 1952, had been visiting Germany for talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel . During an examination yesterday, Mubarak was found to have “chronic inflammation of the gallbladder,” Egypt’s government press office said. The inflammation is “severe,” Nile TV said. Magdy Rady , the cabinet spokesman, said Nazif, 58, will stay in Egypt until Mubarak is back. “It’s business as usual,” Rady said. Nazif was appointed prime minister in July 2004. He was Minister of Communications and Information Technology in the previous government. Liberalization of Egypt’s economy has marked his time in office. In June 2004, Mubarak underwent surgery in Munich for a slipped disc. He put presidential powers in the hands of then- Prime Minister Atef Obeid for 10 days. No Coup “There’s no worries about Nazif for Mubarak,” said Hisham Kassem , a former newspaper publisher and opposition activist. “There won’t be a coup.” Mubarak has been in office since 1981 following the assassination of Anwar Sadat during a military parade by soldiers belonging to an underground Islamic group. He has kept to the peace treaty with Israel that took effect in 1979 and in the past two years tried to mediate between feuding Palestinians in hopes of getting peace talks for a Palestinian state next to Israel under way. Presidential elections are scheduled for 2011. The aging leader has kept succession possibilities firmly linked to his ruling National Democratic Party. Rules introduced in 2006 require presidential candidates to belong to the NDP or established opposition parties, which have virtually no popular support. If an independent wants to run, he must win endorsement by parliament and local councils, all dominated by the NDP. The country’s biggest opposition group, the Muslim Brotherhood, isn’t recognized by the government as a political party. Fainted in Parliament Speculation on a successor to Mubarak has swirled since 2003, when he fainted during a session of parliament. In Cairo, democratic activists have campaigned to prevent a possible dynastic succession to Mubarak’s son Gamal, 47. He heads the NDP’s policy committee. Gamal denies he’s running for president. Mohammed ElBaradei , former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is campaigning for constitutional changes that would widen the field for presidential candidates. During a visit to Cairo last month, ElBaradei formed a group of 30 opposition politicians and activists to press for new rules. To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Williams in Cairo at Dwailliams41@bloomberg.net Holger Elfes in Dusseldorf at helfes@bloomberg.net

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Drought Threatens Syria’s Economy as 300,000 Families Flee Parched Farms

March 1, 2010

By Daniel Williams March 2 (Bloomberg) — A few miles beyond an irrigated golf course on the outskirts of Damascus, scores of refugees fleeing drought in Syria’s northeastern breadbasket have settled into tents on a rocky field. “Our wells are dry and the rains don’t come,” said Ahmed Abu Hamed Mohieddin, a wheat farmer from the town of Qamishli in the Fertile Crescent, a rich agricultural area stretching from Iraq to Israel. “We cannot depend on God’s will for our crops. We come to the city, where the money is.” He and three sons work as porters in the capital’s vegetable markets. They are among about 300,000 families driven to Damascus, Aleppo and other cities in one of the “largest internal displacements in the Middle East in recent years,” according to a Feb. 17 report by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. The water shortage is undermining efforts to maintain economic growth in a country where agriculture until recently accounted for about 25 percent of gross domestic product. The drought is also a potential source of tension as Syria seeks to increase its political influence in the region, where it competes for shared river resources with Turkey, Iraq and Israel. “It’s a problem for the government,” said Jihad Yazigi, editor-in-chief in Damascus of The Syria Report , an online business journal based in Paris. “They don’t like the image of Syria as a drought-ridden, Middle Eastern Ethiopia. Also, it’s not just a lack of water, it’s bad water management by the government itself.” Modernization ‘Neglected’ Much of Syria’s farmland is irrigated by flooding, which wastes water, instead of through pipes and tubes, Yazigi said. “Modernization of agriculture has been neglected.” Rainfall has averaged between 45 percent and 66 percent less than normal in three eastern provinces during the past two years, according to a February UN report . The country uses more water than it receives from rivers, and wells dug to make up the shortfall are depleting aquifers, Theib Oweis, a senior researcher at the Aleppo-based International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas , said in a telephone interview. Syria’s economy grew about 4 percent last year, a decline of 1 percentage point from 2008, the International Monetary Fund said in a Dec. 21 report . The harvest of wheat, Syria’s biggest crop, fell to about 2 million metric tons, half the usual amount, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture . Net Importer “For the first time in two decades, Syria has moved from being a net exporter of wheat to a net importer,” said a February 2010 report by the U.S. State Department , which added that agriculture accounted for about 17 percent of 2008 GDP. The country buys wheat mainly from Mediterranean and Black Sea countries, including France, Ukraine and Russia, according to Syria’s official government news agency. Rain and snow this winter have raised hope for a revived harvest, although one isn’t assured, Abdulla Bin Yehia, a UN Food and Agriculture Organization representative in Damascus, said in the Feb. 17 UN report. “If there is no more rain in the drought-affected areas within the next six to seven weeks, then we may not have any crop,” he said. Frost could destroy produce and devastate farmers “for another year,” he added. The water shortage has contributed in the past to conflict with Israel over the Golan Heights , which the Israelis conquered in the 1967 Middle East War and Syria wants back. The area contains watersheds that flow into the Sea of Galilee, a major source of Israel’s water, and control of these resources has been a sticking point when the countries have met in negotiations. Water Policies Repeated requests to discuss the drought and water policies went unanswered by the government of President Bashar al-Assad , 44, who has ruled Syria for a decade. The lack of water has caused more than 800,000 people in eastern Syria to lose “almost all of their livelihoods and face extreme hardship,” according to an Aug. 11 report by the UN humanitarian office. About 80 percent of the hardest hit “live on a diet consisting of bread and sugared tea,” the report said. Mohieddin, 47, said he left Qamishli when his well ran dry and he couldn’t afford a new pump. He sold a flock of sheep because grazing land had withered and he didn’t have commercial feed. He came to Damascus last May and lives among the dusty lanes separating do-it-yourself tents of plastic and cotton sheets. “I’m thinking maybe we can build a little house here,” Mohieddin said. “We can’t go back to Qamishli. We prayed for rain too long.” Limited Help Complicating life for the refugees is limited humanitarian help. The World Food Programmme in Rome appealed last August for $23 million in aid. It received only about $6 million, the organization’s country director, Mohannad Hadi, told Syria Today magazine. The winter rain “means farmers in the northeast may have crops after the harvest,” he said. “But it won’t put food on the table for them today.” Or fill their tea cups. Mohieddin trudges 200 yards into Khirbet al-Waled village to get drinking water from a trickling outdoor faucet. “I’m used to this,” he said. “Water is as hard to get for us as gold.” To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Williams in Damascus at dwilliams41@bloomberg.net .

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