data

Lloyd Chapman: Why Did President Obama Hide Record Small Business Numbers

September 3, 2010

Last Friday, as I predicted in my August 6 and August 24 Huffington Post blogs, the Obama Administration, right on queue, released the latest Small Business Administration (SBA) fiscal year (FY) 2009 Small Business Procurement Scorecard . Anyone in the media can tell you that releasing information late on a Friday afternoon is a technique used by the government when trying to bury or hide negative news, and it worked fairly well in this case. So as expected, the Obama Administration tried to bury the release of its FY 2009 small business contracting data. The Obama Administration acknowledged it had missed the congressionally mandated 23 percent government-wide small business contracting goal, and four of five small business goals overall. However, the government did claim to award small businesses a record amount of contracts totaling over $96 billion. So here’s a question; if the Obama Administration awarded a record $96.8 billion in federal contracts to small businesses during FY 2009, then why didn’t President Obama hold a White House press conference to talk about it? Or go on national television to talk about it? Here’s why. Of the more than $96 billion in federal small business contracts the Obama Administration claims to have awarded to small businesses, over half went to large corporations. A study released in June by the American Small Business League (ASBL) found that 60 of the top 100 recipients of small business contracts were actually large businesses. Some of the firms that the Obama Administration considered to be “small businesses” are: Lockheed Martin, Boeing, British Aerospace (BAE), Rolls-Royce, Raytheon, Dell Computer, General Electric, Honeywell International Corporation. This marks the 10th consecutive year that the government has diverted most federal small business contracts to large businesses. If any journalist tries to take on the Small Business Administration, they will get the standard answer the SBA has been regurgitating for over a decade, that this is merely “computer glitches,” “simple human error,” “miscoding,” and that the ” data is as clean as it has ever been. ” In the ten years that this has gone on, not a single journalist has asked the government why the error rate on that field is over a thousand times higher than any other field in the data? And why the “miscoding,” “computer glitches” and “simple human errors” always report awards to large corporations as small business awards and never the other way around? Clearly the data is not clean, nor is this issue attributable to simple human error, miscoding, or computer glitches. In 2005, the SBA Inspector General found large corporations had received billions of dollars in federal small business contracts illegally through ” false certifications” and “improper certifications .” The same year, the SBA Office of Advocacy released a report that found that large corporations had received small business contracts through ” vendor deception. ” These are all synonyms for felony contracting fraud. So it appears that despite President Obama’s campaign promises to end business as usual in Washington and provide “Change We Can Believe In,” he has clearly decided to continue the Bush Administration policy of cheating small businesses out of billions of dollars a month in federal small business contracts. Since 2003, more than a dozen federal investigations have uncovered the diversion of federal small business contracts to large corporations. In Report 5-15 the SBA’s own inspector general referred to the issue as, ” One of the largest challenges facing the Small Business Administration and the entire federal government today .” President Obama even seemed to recognize the severity of the situation when he said, ” It is time to end the diversion of federal small business contracts to corporation giants. ” Directing existing federal infrastructure spending to the 27 million small businesses where most American’s work is our single best hope of avoiding a double dip recession. Cleaning up fraud and abuse in federal small business contracting programs is a necessary and important first step. Unfortunately, the late-Friday afternoon release of the Small Business Procurement Scorecard seems to be a clear indication that President Obama is not the man we hoped he would be, and that he is willing to let America slide into a crippling double dip recession before he will stop the diversion of federal small business contracts to corporate giants.

Read the full article →

Why Women Are Fleeing Wall Street

September 3, 2010

Economists are struggling to explain an exodus of women from Wall Street, but one is not the least bit surprised by the data: Sylvia Ann Hewlett, founding president and chairman of the Center for Work-Life Policy, a nonprofit think tank based in New York. FINS.com reporter Kyle Stock sat down with Hewlett to discuss how Wall Street’s tarnished reputation has changed its demographics, the challenges of reentering the workforce and why the industry still isn’t doing enough to woo women.

Read the full article →

Video: Dell Walks Away From 3Par After HP’s $33-a-Share Offer: Video

September 2, 2010

Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) — Dell Inc. declined to match Hewlett-Packard Co.’s $33-a-share offer for 3Par, ending a bidding war for the data-storage supplier that stretched into 18 days. Bloomberg’s Suzanne o’Halloran reports. (Source: Bloomberg)

Read the full article →

Video: Shaw Wu Says 3Par Valuation `Getting Quite Expensive’: Video

August 27, 2010

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — Shaw Wu, an analyst at Kaufman Bros., talks about the bidding competition between Hewlett-Packard Co. and Dell Inc. for 3Par Inc. Hewlett-Packard topped Dell in the bidding for 3Par for the third time, agreeing to pay $30 a share, or $2 billion, for the data-storage provider. Wu speaks with Bloomberg’s Mark Crumpton and Dominic Chu. (Source: Bloomberg)

Read the full article →

Video: Hewlett-Packard Boosts Bid for 3Par Again to $30 a Share: Video

August 27, 2010

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — Hewlett-Packard Co. topped Dell Inc. in the bidding for 3Par Inc. for the third time, agreeing to pay $30 a share or $2 billion for the data-storage provider. Bloomberg’s Suzanne O’Halloran reports. (Source: Bloomberg)

Read the full article →

Video: Hewlett-Packard Boosts Bid for 3Par Again to $30 a Share: Video

August 27, 2010

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — Hewlett-Packard Co. topped Dell Inc. in the bidding for 3Par Inc. for the third time, agreeing to pay $30 a share or $2 billion for the data-storage provider. Bloomberg’s Suzanne O’Halloran reports. (Source: Bloomberg)

Read the full article →

Noah Mallin: Digital: Mad Men Google Bombing For Fun – and Profit?

August 26, 2010

On last Sunday’s episode of AMC’s period ad drama Mad Men , John Slattery’s World War II vet Roger Sterling exploded in rage at the prospect of pitching to a Japanese client: “Why don’t we just bring Dr. Lyle Evans in here?” The other characters draw a blank on who exactly Dr. Lyle Evans is. As Vanity Fair and others pointed out within minutes the Internet surged with the same question – who is Dr. Lyle Evans? Google searches on the name skyrocketed. Initial speculation was that Mad Men creator Matt Weiner and the show’s writers had created the name as a so-called “Google bomb”, a prank intended to drive a made-up name into trending search charts. So far that still seems to be the case, though some have pointed (check the comments in the Vanity Fair link) to the character of Evan Llewellyn Evans played by Sydney Greenstreet in the classic ad movie The Hucksters as the source of the reference. If it was planted on purpose though, could it also have been for another reason beyond the fun of influencing the behavior of a large group of strangers online? This is entirely speculative, but consider the value of product placement within television shows, a practice that has been on the upswing of late. Typically though the results of such placements can be hard to measure, especially when the product is woven organically into the show’s storyline (as it should be.) How do you prove effectiveness? Search engine queries are a great start. The immediate online response of a big swath of viewers to a show that already offers a dense tapestry of historical references and Easter eggs is hard to beat. What better way to show this influence over fans? This got me to thinking on a broader level about how my fellow modern day ad colleagues look at data to guide strategy and measure results. Sometimes it can be helpful to go off the beaten path and look at non-traditional sources of measurement for inspiration. Take a blog post I read recently about a press release from GM’s OnStar division, which offers drivers turn-by-turn navigation to destinations. The press release listed the Top 10 destinations drivers had used OnStar to search for by brand: 1. Wal-Mart 2. Holiday Inn 3. Home Depot 4. Walgreens 5. Marriott 6. McDonald’s 7. Bank of America 8. Starbucks 9. Target 10. Hampton Inn My first thought was that people may need gas but they don’t seem to care what brand they get it from. The second was that every single one of the brands in the Top 10 ought to be thinking about the power of mobile search ads. Plenty of people use their smart phones to find local destinations while driving (hopefully with the help of a non-driving passenger). What a great additional proof point to bring this home. The fact that an in-car navigation system can tell us about the potential of advertising on mobile devices, and search volume on Google can give insight into the behavior of television viewers brings home the fact that we tend to be doing many things at once these days. We search (and make phone calls) while driving and watching TV, we watch TV and buy things online simultaneously, we work and chat with pals on Facebook at the same time. As our activities multiply, the need to vary the data sources that help us understand this is vital .

Read the full article →

Lloyd Chapman: Obama Administration Fabricated Small Business Contracting Data Coming Soon

August 24, 2010

Any day now the Obama Administration will release the latest federal data on the volume of government contracts that were awarded to small businesses. Federal law requires a minimum of 23 percent of all federal contracts to be awarded to small businesses. I’m betting the “Change We Can Believe In” Obama Administration will completely falsify the actual percentage of government contracts that were awarded to legitimate small businesses. Despite all his rhetoric and pandering to small businesses, the latest government small business contracting data will prove President Obama is just another “business as usual” politician who is willing to say or do anything to get elected with no intention of honoring campaign promises. Everyone has an opinion when it comes to politics, but however you slice it; the Obama Administration has failed to honor its promises to the small business community. In June, the American Small Business League (ASBL) released an analysis of the Obama Administration’s poor small business track record . I am predicting that the actual volume of federal contracts the government will claim to have awarded to small businesses during fiscal year (FY) 2009 will be grossly misrepresented. The data will prove that President Obama’s promise to end the diversion of billions of dollars a year in federal small business contracts to corporate giants was empty. The Obama Administration’s neglect of this issue during its tenure has cheated the nation’s 27 million small businesses out of billions of dollars in federal funds that by law should be allocated to small businesses. I predict the following regarding the release, and the immediate fall-out after the release of the Obama Administration’s FY 2009 small business contracting data: 1. To avoid scrutiny from the media, the data will be released late on a Friday in the next several weeks. 2. There will be no mainstream media coverage of the release of the data. The largest federal program to direct federal infrastructure spending to the private sector will go unreported. The intentional diversion of over $100 billion in federal small business funds to large businesses around the world will go largely unreported by the mainstream media. You will not see this story on ABC, CBS or NBC. You won’t see it in the Washington Post, the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal. 3. The Obama Administration will claim to have just missed its congressionally mandated 23 percent goal. Administration officials will claim to have awarded just over 22 percent of the government’s purchases to small businesses. In reality, less than 5 percent of government contracts will have actually gone to legitimate small businesses. 4. The government’s FY 2009 small business contracting data will be falsified in several ways. First: Obama Administration officials will claim the federal acquisition budget is less than half of what it actually is. The real federal acquisition budget for foreign, domestic, classified and unclassified acquisitions is nearly $1 trillion. Second: Thousands of large businesses, Fortune 500 firms and foreign owned corporations will be included in the Obama Administration’s small business data. Billions of dollars in contracts awarded to U.S. based large businesses will be hidden under the categories “miscellaneous foreign contractors” and “classified domestic contractors.” 5. If any attention is brought to fact that thousands of large businesses are included in the data, officials at the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) will claim it is the result of “miscoding,” “computer glitches,” and “simple human error.” 6. No journalist will ask any Obama Administration official why the alleged “random errors” always report awards to large businesses as small business contracts and never the other way around. No journalist will ask why the one field that indicates if a firm is small or large has an error rate thousands of times higher than any other field in the database. No journalist will ask why there are so many errors in the data, even after the government spent nearly a year analyzing the data before its release. 7. No White House Correspondent will ever ask President Obama why his Administration is diverting federal small business contracts to large businesses, despite his campaign promise to, “end the diversion of federal small business contracts to corporate giants.” 8. No member of Congress will complain about the fact that the Obama Administration is diverting federal small business funds to large businesses. 9. The release of the fabricated small business data will not prompt any member of Congress to call for the immediate passage of H.R. 2568, the Fairness and Transparency in Contracting Act. The bill would halt the yearly diversion of over $100 billion in federal small business contracts to large businesses, and redirect those funds to the private sector firms that create a majority of net new jobs in America. 10. No group claiming to represent the interests of American small businesses (other than the ASBL) will be critical of the Obama Administration for diverting small business funds to large businesses, and falsifying compliance with the government’s 23 percent small business contracting goal. The ASBL projects that over the last decade this fraud and abuse has diverted more than a trillion dollars away from the middle class. Unless the mainstream media starts making this issue a priority, another trillion dollars in small business contracts will flow into the hands of large businesses over the next decade.

Read the full article →

Brett King: What’s in a Twitter name? That which we call a customer…

August 13, 2010

Apologies to Shakespeare for the modified Romeo and Juliet reference, but the question is valid – what is in the ‘name’ of a customer these days? I’m on Twitter, I’m on Facebook, I have various other profiles online on sites like LinkedIn, etc but none of this information appears relevant to most of the service organizations I interacted with daily. But if this identifies who I am – why is that no one asks me for my Twitter name in customer interactions these days? Why is it that today that there are many banks who won’t let me open an account unless I have a home telephone number (a landline) – which quite frankly I haven’t used for a number of years now (in fact I don’t even know my home phone number) – and yet in respect to mechanisms which I use a whole lot more frequently than a home telephone number for communication, namely FB and Twitter, they completely ignore me? I have to say these days I’d probably be a whole lot more likely to talk about my bank on Twitter, than I would wait for their call on my home telephone number, which I don’t use. Customer profiles are out of touch Understanding customer behavior and how we are ‘tribally’ connected to our peers in the social networking landscape is a pretty fundamental requirement for service organizations these days if they want to influence brand perception. At a minimum, a bank should be ready to respond to me via Twitter, Facebook, Mobile or similar mediums, but in respect to traditional customer profile information like my home telephone number, my home address (which is increasingly irrelevant to my bank relationship), my employer’s telephone number, and such – this type of data is practically useless from a behavioral or service enablement perspective these days. Your customer profile today is about two things for a bank, namely KYC and Segmentation. KYC is a industry compliance term which refers to ” Know Your Customer ” – it is seen as the basic information or data set that a bank needs to know to assess your risk profile as far as likelihood of issues around AML (Anti-Money Laundering), etc as is required generally as part of a process by regulators for new customers. On the segmentation front, the classic method of segmentation these days is still based around demographics such as age, salary, where I live, how many kids I have, etc and informs classic marketing campaign development. Increasingly both of these outcomes are out of touch with the reality of the digitally enabled customer. I am here to tell you that despite all the KYC information my bank has captured about me, that in respect to my risk on a financial basis this data is almost certainly irrelevant. Far more important for them would be information on where I am travelling to, which partner ATM machines I use when I travel, how I conduct cross-border transactions, who is having access to my basic information that could threaten the safety of my identity, and how I manage my finances on a daily basis. The fact is, I’ve never been asked about any of this stuff, which is far more informative to my transactional risk profile than what my monthly salary and deposit patterns are. Banks often talk about their knowledge of customers as a differentiator The role our digital footprint plays The key information for a bank moving forward is not demographic data, it’s not about where I live or what my home phone number is, it is about what I do… In that respect, the data trail I leave for banks is extremely informative. The interactions I have with the bank are likewise hugely instructive from a future service and risk perspective. For example, my bank has data on which retailers I like to shop at, which airlines I travel, the cars I drive, the laptop I own, the mobile devices I utilize, the properties I own, the property I live in, and a bunch of other extremely useful information in respect to offers they could present me with. However, this data is just never used. I get credit card usage offers from retailers I never frequent – why doesn’t the cards team send me offers for retailers where I’ve shopped before? I get offered personal loans and increased credit card limits when I don’t need them – when I might be interested these offers are nowhere to be seen. I get offered opportunities for new credit cards for airline loyalty programs that I’m not affiliated with – why can’t they work out which airlines I use and proactively offer to transfer my credit card points to my airline program? Recently the team at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank in the United Arab Emirates were looking at ways they could improve the suitability of offers for card usage for customers. There were suggestions around using location-based messaging technology through telecommunication providers to target you when you were at various shopping malls around the Emirates, but the Telco network operators proved to be light on this capability. So ADCB looked at behaviors – how did customers behave when they went shopping? Behavioral analysis suggested that a customer who went to a mall was almost always certain to do one of two things. Initially go to an ATM machine upon arrival and pull out cash, or alternatively use their credit card to make a purchase. So ADCB worked out they didn’t need the mobile operators to work out WHERE customers where, they only needed to look at live transaction data for location triggers. So now ADCB can provide you with a time sensitive, location sensitive offer based on your behavior and can simply send it to you via SMS. Far more constructive than flooding me with broadcast messages that are more miss than hit. Conclusion Today banks don’t know me. The data they choose to use in respect to my profile is largely irrelevant. The data they have on me and could have utilize in respect to my behavior is much more relevant to how I’ll interact with the bank in the future. So if you are a bank – do you know my Twitter name, have you friended me on Facebook? Do you know my mobile number and what type of phone I use? Are you matching offers for services and products to me based on what I’ve done or am likely to do? If I talk about you on Twitter, would you know that I’m a customer and could you engage me on this issue next time I call the call centre? If not – you really don’t know me at all.

Read the full article →

Steve Parker: Is NHTSA Working for Toyota or To Find the Truth?

August 12, 2010

Last week we asked, based on conclusions drawn by a Wall Street Journal auto industry reporter, if Toyota had been right along with their contention that “driver error,” and not electronic gremlins, was the main culprit behind thousands of owner claims of “unintended acceleration.” Not to mention the hundreds of injuries and even several deaths which are claimed to be the result of known problems in Toyota-built vehicles, cars and trucks both. Readers responded with their own thoughts on what could now be called “the Toyota scandal.” It appears that, among this blog’s readers, at least, the majority of people responding felt there was something wrong with these Toyotas and that owners were possibly being left out in the cold with Toyota’s claims of driver error. A report in Tuesday’s Automotive News , the world’s daily publication of record for the auto industry, would seem to bolster the company’s claims … especially so, considering Toyota says their source for this information is from NHTSA, the US agency of record when it comes to automotive safety. Here’s what Automotive News said: “Brakes weren’t applied by drivers of Toyota vehicles in at least 35 of 58 crashes blamed on unintended acceleration, U.S. auto-safety regulators said after studying data recorders.” The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration also saw no evidence of electronics-related causes for the accidents in reviewing the vehicle recorders, known as black boxes, the agency said today in a report to lawmakers. The preliminary findings bolster Toyota’s contentions that there’s no evidence of flaws in electronic controls on its vehicles and that motorists in some cases confused the accelerator and brake pedals. Toyota, the world’s largest automaker, has recalled more than 8 million vehicles worldwide in the past year for defects such as pedals that stuck or snagged on floor mats. “At this early point in its investigation, NHTSA officials have drawn no conclusions about additional causes of unintended acceleration in Toyotas beyond the two defects already known — pedal entrapment and sticking gas pedals,” the agency said in the report provided for a briefing to lawmakers in Washington. In addition to the 60 percent of cases where brakes weren’t used, NHTSA cited accidents in which the brakes were applied partially or the data recorder failed. Toyota has conducted more than 4,000 on-site vehicle inspections, and said today it has not found electronic throttle controls to be a cause of unintended acceleration. “Toyota’s own vehicle evaluations have confirmed that the remedies it developed for sticking accelerator pedal and potential accelerator pedal entrapment by an unsecured or incompatible floor mat are effective,” the company said. “We have also confirmed several different causes for unintended acceleration reports, including pedal entrapment by floor mats, pedal misapplication and vehicle functions where a slight increase in engine speed is normal, such as engine idle up from a cold start or air conditioning loads.” In all of the cases studied by federal regulators, the driver made an allegation of unintended acceleration. Of the 58 recording devices analyzed, 35 showed that at the moment of the crash impact, the driver hadn’t depressed the brake pedal at all, safety officials said. Fourteen more cases showed partial braking. In another nine cases, the brake had been depressed at the “last second” before impact. The government’s preliminary examination also said there were a handful of other crashes where the brake was pressed early and released, or in which the brake and gas pedals were pressed at the same time. There was one case of pedal entrapment by a floor mat. In five cases, NHTSA said, the electronic recording device failed to work. The agency is continuing its review of Toyota defects and is working with NASA, the U.S. space agency, and the National Academy of Sciences to probe the cause of the crashes.” So how WILL this all turn out? No one wants to jump to conclusions, especially considering that both Toyota and US government agencies are terribly litigious. And no one wants to get caught-up in what I think will be a long and international court battle between the entities involved. But there still is freedom of the press, at least last time I checked. Given that, what’s the next move by either Toyota and/or NHTSA? We all knew this would be solved (or made more involved) in the courts. I know people from Toyota and NHTSA (and more) read this blog and this is kind of a back-door way of giving your opinion directly to the participants; as if we’re Switzerland or Finland — that usually and officially secret third party in negotiations about, for instance, the Middle East — and we’re shuttling messages between the two main parties. So now’s your chance! What happens next? And why? And are you happy with it? And how should we treat NHTSA’s report which seems to take Toyota’s claims of “no electrical problems” with even less than a grain of salt? Listen and join-in with Steve Parker every weekend on www.TalkRadioOne.com … Visit that site to find out local showtimes in your area!

Read the full article →

David Isenberg: Burying Your Mistakes: PMC and Arlington National Cemetery

August 10, 2010

Today, let’s revisit a perennial issue in the world of contracting, which is the belief that the private sector always does things more effectively, efficiently than the public sector. In that regard let’s take a look at a different kind of PMC; I’ll call them private mortuary contractors. When troops die in a war and are returned home for burial to a place like, say, Arlington National Cemetery (ANC) there is an expectation that this national resting place, where more than 330,000 individuals have been buried, including service members from every major conflict and war, and which conducts approximately 6,400 funerals a year, an average of 27 to 30 funerals per day, will not screw up. Of course, as we now sadly know that expectation is wrong. Thanks to a series of investigations that started on July 16, 2009, when the online magazine Salon.com published the first of a series of articles regarding mismanagement, the U.S. Army Inspector General released a report in June finding major flaws in the operation of Arlington National Cemetery. The IG found hundreds of mistakes associated with graves at Arlington National Cemetery, including unmarked or improperly marked graves, incorrect information in the Cemetery’s records about whether graves were occupied, and mishandling of cremated remains, including multiple occasions where urns of cremated remains were found in the Cemetery’s landfill. The IG found that the failure to implement an effective automated system to manage burials at the Cemetery contributed to these mistakes. The IG also found that the contracts awarded to acquire components of the proposed system for the Cemetery failed to comply with applicable federal, Defense, and Army regulations. On July 27 the Senate Subcommittee on Contracting Oversight released a staff memo detailing the mismanagement of contracts at Arlington National Cemetery. That mismanagement is worse than we thought. “The Subcommittee has also learned that the problems with graves at Arlington may be far more extensive than previously acknowledged. The Subcommittee has obtained information suggesting that 4,900 to 6,600 graves may be unmarked, improperly marked, or mislabeled on the Cemetery’s maps.” Now, not all the problems at Arlington were not just the result of the contractors. The tensions between former Superintendent John C. Metzler and former Deputy Superintendent Thurman Higginbotham certainly played a role. Yet the lack of oversight of the contractors paid to develop a new system to automate the management of burial operations has led us to the current status quo that ANC still does not have a system that can accurately track graves and manage burial operations. Here are some excerpts worth thinking about: In November 2002, the Capital District Contracting Center at Fort Belvoir awarded a $64,000 contract to Standard Technology, Inc. (STI) to develop the Interment Scheduling System (ISS), a database for Cemetery officials to schedule burials. The contract was modified three times to increase the funding to $130,000 and extend the delivery date to September 30, 2003. … Almost immediately, Cemetery officials found that ISS did not work. According to the former Information Technology manager for the Cemetery, ISS was “extremely unstable … it can’t interoperate … you can’t do anything with it.” An engineering firm that received a separate contract to evaluate ISS agreed, finding that ISS was “not well designed or implemented.” Despite this recommendation, Cemetery officials decided to maintain and expand the current version of ISS. In 2005, Alpha Technology Group, Inc. (ATG) received nearly $1.7 million in contracts to support ISS. ATG received nearly $4 million in additional contracts from 2006 to 2009 for services at the Cemetery, including contracts for repeated attempts to fix problems with ISS. In 2006 and 2007, the Cemetery began work on a new version of ISS. According to Cemetery officials, ISSv2 would “provide the same functionality as the current ISS … [and] increase the accuracy of interment data.” ISSv2 would also include a master calendar for scheduling funerals. In 2007, the Cemetery and Army officials reported to Congress that ISSv2 was currently being “tested and modified” and would not be used until various problems were fixed and additional components developed. According to the former IT manager for the Cemetery, the Cemetery never received a working version of ISSv2 from the contractor, Offise Solutions, an 8(a) small and disadvantaged business started by a former employee of STI. She stated: We are now testing it and it is crashing. … I’m running the scenarios that are based on how you bury people here at Arlington Cemetery and if I can’t get two people in the same grave that are a husband and a wife, you’ve got a problem. … I don’t know, quite honestly, how that contract was paid as but the deliverable was never given to us. We could not operate on that. The Cemetery also failed to digitize its paper burial records and track graves. In 2004 and 2005, the Center for Contracting Excellence awarded a series of sole-source contracts to Offise Solutions, the same contractor involved in the creation of the failed ISSv2, to scan and digitize the Cemetery’s 300,000 paper records. The Army Inspector General concluded that this project was also a failure. According to the Army Inspector General: Evidence reflected that the contractor delivered approximately 60 CDs that contained mostly scanned files of burial documentation, and that the contractor was paid at least $800,000 for this work. These records were not delivered in a standardized format and were not stored as part of a database. ANC could not use the data developed under this effort. Evidence reflected that ANC received digitized records sometime in 2004, and that these records were never implemented or used by ANC other than in a test environment for a few months in 2008. The TCMS program experienced significant problems with program management and oversight. From the beginning of development, the TCMS program lacked the unified, comprehensive management and oversight necessary to keep the program on track. A. Inadequate Contract Management by Army Officials Every IT contract for TCMS was awarded by either the Army Contracting Center of Excellence (now the National Capitol Region Contracting Center) or the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers-Baltimore District. The Army Inspector General found numerous problems with their performance, including: • “[T]here was no acquisition strategy, no integrated IT system, and a series of IT regulator violations.” • “In general, none of ANC’s IT contracts reviewed supporting TCMS efforts contained affirmative determinations of responsibility which are essential to ensure that the contractors selected are capable of performing, … [as is] required under Federal Acquisition Regulations.” • “For the IT contracts, the 8(a) vendors were identified by ANC and merely submitted to the SBA as the recommended sole source. No government contracting officials conducted an independent review of the 8(a)’s capabilities or assessed the vendors recommended for a noncompetitive award.” • “The majority of contract files lacked a proper determination of fair and reasonable pricing intended to ensure that the government did not overpay for services/items.” • “The Deputy Superintendent, ANC, had no training, no designation letter and stated that he was not a COR [Contracting Officer's Representative]. However, each IT contract effectively listed the Deputy Superintendent as the COR by identifying him as the government point of contact responsible for monitoring all IT contract performance.

Read the full article →

Jamie Court: There’s No Privacy in Third World America

August 10, 2010

A big New York foundation once told me years ago that privacy is the last thing people in the developing world have to worry about. It was a nice way of saying no to funding for my consumer group’s privacy project, but the line rang out to me again this week as new reporting at the Wall Street Journal brings into focus the great privacy betrayals of America’s giant tech companies and Third World America makes its debut. As a one-time homeless advocate, I know the housing, health care or economic crisis can hit a family like a tornado and take away everything in an instant. It’s a more and more common scenario for two of every ten Americans, likely to be hit with a foreclosure, a bankruptcy brought on by medical bills, or a job loss. When you have your eye on your job, your health care or your adjustable rate mortgage, it’s hard to keep track of anything else, let alone your online privacy, or how Google defines “net neutrality.” America’s big tech companies know this too and they are taking advantage of the crisis to rewrite the rules of an open and free Internet, and our privacy rights. Virtually overnight Google — the “don’t be evil” guys — did an about-face on treating the Internet as a freeway, “net neutrality,” and decided to turn it into a toll road for big bidders and the ever expanding wireless world. Google says our data won’t get caught in the slow lane, but it’s hard to believe any of the Internet Goliath’s claims after reading the Wall Street Journal’s latest installment of its excellent series on the loss of online privacy. The Journal nails Google with internal documents showing how each of its services tracks users’ personal information online and the brainstorming inside Googleplex about what can be done with the data. One great idea is to potentially charge Google users for the right not to have their personal information shared with advertisers. Google’s not the only offender, the WSJ found documents at Microsoft as it went through the same type of internal debate about how to monetize our online lives. But Google was supposed to be different, not evil. Some of the leading progressive groups in America were even shocked at Google’s thinly disguised net-neutrality reversal, but it’s consistent with the tech giant’s rapid expansion and focus on economic growth at the expense of principle. That’s why Consumer Watchdog launched Inside Google this Spring to report on such troubling developments at the company as the it veers from the principles it was founded upon. It shouldn’t be hard to believe large corporations would take advantage of a crisis to betray Americans’ trust. But the tech sector was supposed to different, one of the most visible enduring symbols of the American dream, now that home ownership, college education and job security don’t hold up. It’s called high tech, after all, not big tech. The executives must be getting high at Googleplex, though, if they don’t understand that they have handed the American political establishment a huge opportunity to cut the Silicon Valley down to size. A showdown in Washington, DC is inevitable. A recent Consumer Watchdog poll found that more than 8 in 10 Americans support strong online privacy protections, such as a “make me anonymous” button and a “do not track me” list. Make no mistake, privacy and net neutrality are next up on the Capitol stage. Americans will either win freedoms they have taken for granted back, or curse yet another big industry that uses its economic might and the rationale that all reform is a “job killer” to protect itself at Americans’ expense. Such is the plight of the middle class today. Privacy and net neutrality are nearly perfect issues for the middle class to strike back at big tech for its latest betrayals because of the overwhelming support of public opinion for online privacy and net neutrality rights. A good start is signing a petition to the FCC to use its power to stop the latest Google betrayal in its tracks and keep the Internet a freeway. If there’s one thing middle class America needs now, it’s a quick and solid victory. Online rights are an opportunity for Washington to give us all a little piece of the American dream back.

Read the full article →

Fannie Mae: Home Prices To Decline Into Next Year

August 6, 2010

Home prices will decline into next year, Fannie Mae said Thursday, reversing earlier projections that the housing market would stabilize this year. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that a so-called double-dip recession was possible “if home prices go down.” Fannie’s forecast, disclosed in its latest quarterly report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, shows that the government-owned mortgage giant has turned bearish on the housing market. Fannie Mae, the federal mortgage association, along with its sister entity, Freddie Mac, own or guarantee about half of all U.S. mortgages. “We expect that home prices on a national basis will decline slightly in 2010 and into 2011 before stabilizing, and that the peak-to-trough home price decline on a national basis will range between 18 percent and 25 percent,” the bailed-out behemoth said in its filing. Some housing market analysts, notably John Burns, Mark Hanson, and Dean Baker, have been expecting price declines for some time, but a review of Fannie’s recent regulatory filings show that the firm’s expectations at the start of the year were more positive but have grown grim as time has passed. Put another way, Fannie Mae says the housing market is getting worse. In February, the Washington-based firm said in its annual filing that it expected “home prices to stabilize in 2010.” In May, Fannie said it expected home prices “will decline slightly in 2010 before stabilizing.” The firm also forecast in May that it saw the peak-to-trough decline in home prices nationwide to be in the 18-23 percent range. Fannie changed that to 18-25 percent in its latest filing. The company uses its own formula, eschewing the popular S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. “They are basically going with consensus thinking all three times,” John Burns, a housing industry consultant based in Irvine, Calif., said of Fannie’s last three forecasts. Burns also expects home prices to drop. “It’s a good sign they’re getting a little more in touch with reality,” said Dean Baker, co-director of the Washington-based Center for Economic and Policy Research. Baker expects home prices to drop an additional 15 percent, arguing that the housing bubble has yet to fully deflate. He cautions, though, that part of that decline could be the market over-shooting its correction. Baker is one of a few prominent economists that had been warning about the housing bubble during the boom and to have predicted the mortgage meltdown. Mark Hanson, a housing industry analyst based in California, said in an interview last week that he expects home prices to continually decline in each of the next four years. Greenspan, though, said the data “don’t show” a nationwide decline. “Home prices, as best we can judge, have really flattened out in the last year,” he said Sunday. “And while it is true that most economists expect a small dip from here largely as a consequence of the ending of the [temporary homebuyer] tax credit, the data don’t show that at this particular stage. “If home prices stay stable, then I think we will skirt the worst of the housing problem,” the former Fed chairman added. While the Obama administration has talked up the stabilized housing market and the rise in home prices since the beginning of the year, it, too, has begun to note the possibility housing prices will drop. In its annual Economic Report of the President sent to Congress in February, the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, referring to vacant homes that are intentionally being held off the market — part of the so-called “shadow inventory” — said that the “overhang may lead to some additional price declines, although prices are unlikely to fall at the same rate as they did during the crisis.” On Monday, Alan B. Krueger, the Treasury Department’s assistant secretary for economic policy and its chief economist, also noted that the “large inventory of homes on the market relative to the sales pace, along with a significant number of homes in foreclosure also poses a downside risk to prices,” he said in a statement. In the spring, Krueger spoke of “stabilizing home prices” and said that “housing market futures point to flat housing prices through 2010,” according to a May 3 statement. The Federal Reserve’s main policymaking body has also turned bearish, warning in June about the possibility of declines in home prices. “With the expiration of [temporary tax credits for homebuyers], home sales and starts had stepped down noticeably and could remain weak in the near term,” participants noted during the Federal Open Market Committee’s June 22-23 meeting, according to minutes released last month. “With lower demand and a continuing supply of foreclosed houses coming to market, participants judged that house prices were likely to remain flat or decline somewhat further in the near term.” Borrowers are losing their homes at a record pace. Banks have repossessed about 1.4 million homes since Obama took office, according to data provider RealtyTrac. And foreclosures, though down from their 2009 highs, still average well over 300,000 homes per month. While it takes a record 461 days to complete a foreclosure, an average according to Jacksonville, Fla.-based data provider Lender Processing Services, for the more than 2.8 million homes that were foreclosed on last year that day of reckoning has either passed, or is approaching soon. Fannie said Thursday that it expects its inventory of repossessed homes “to continue to increase significantly throughout 2010.”

Read the full article →

Dan Solin: Upton Sinclair’s Insight for Improving Your 401(k) Returns

July 27, 2010

It’s surprising that Upton Sinclair would provide today’s investors with an insight for investing success. He was born on September 20, 1878. His parents were very poor. His father was an alcoholic. His grandparents were quite wealthy. The stark difference in the financial circumstances of his parents and grandparents influenced him to become one of the most prominent socialists of his time. He even ran (without success) as the Socialist’s Party’s candidate for Congress from New Jersey. What can this avowed socialist teach us about investing? Here’s a quote attributed to him. It says it all: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.” The salaries of brokers and insurance company representatives depend on persuading employers with 401(k) plans to include actively managed funds (where the fund manager attempts to beat a designated benchmark) as investment options in the plan. Billions in fees is generated in this way. The overwhelming evidence supports the view that most of this money is wasted. Plan participants would achieve significantly greater returns if no actively managed funds were in their plans. Instead,the plans should offer a limited number of pre-allocated, globally diversified portfolios of low cost index funds, Exchange Traded Funds or passively managed funds. People who make a living selling actively managed funds react to this news much like a speech by a vegetarian is received at a cattlemen’s convention. One reader (a broker) patiently explained that I didn’t understand the math. He believes the support for index funds in the press is caused by its willingness to accept glib statements from bloggers (like me). He provided no data to support his view. Two distinguished finance professors who clearly do “understand the math” are Eugene F. Fama, a Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago, Booth School of Business, and Kenneth F. French, a Professor of Finance at Dartmouth College, Tuck School of Business. In their recent study , Luck Versus Skill in the Cross Section of Mutual Fund Returns , they attribute outperformance of actively managed funds to luck and not skill. Because there is no evidence of skill, it’s not surprising those funds that do perform well over a given period of time typically cannot repeat their stellar performance. The ramifications of this study hit brokers and insurance companies right where it hurts — in their pockets. If employers understood this data, they would not include actively managed funds in their 401(k) plans because those funds are likely to underperform passive benchmarks by almost 1% per year. The reaction to studies of this sort is interesting. Another reader explained his strongly held view that “managed funds” should be in all 401(k) plans. He bragged his credentials included an M.B.A. He was a consultant to corporations and boards on how to reduce their fiduciary risk. I responded with a number of studies (including some by Nobel Prize winners in Economics) rebutting his views. I encouraged him to send me peer reviewed studies with contrary data. I told him I had an easy solution for eliminating fiduciary liability, rather than simply mitigating it: Require investment advisors to 401(k) plans to be 3(38) ERISA fiduciaries and to accept 100% of the liability for the selection and monitoring of plan assets. Here’s his response: He doesn’t believe in academic studies. He has no confidence in the committee that appoints Nobel Prize winners. He sent me no data. The pattern is very familiar. Research is responded to with rhetoric, but no contrary data. Unfortunately, their clients often don’t have the sophistication to confront them with studies that demonstrate what they are selling is in their best interest, but not in the best interest of the participants in the plan. Employers need to appreciate their potential exposure as fiduciaries to plan participants. It’s only a matter of time before an enlightened court reviews the studies and concludes the inclusion of any actively managed fund in a 401(k) plan violates the duty of prudence. Brokers and insurance companies will never “understand” this evidence. Their salaries depend on their not understanding it. The views set forth in this blog are the opinions of the author alone and may not represent the views of any firm or entity with whom he is affiliated. The data, information, and content on this blog are for information, education, and non-commercial purposes only. Returns from index funds do not represent the performance of any investment advisory firm. The information on this blog does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice and is limited to the dissemination of opinions on investing. No reader should construe these opinions as an offer of advisory services. Readers who require investment advice should retain the services of a competent investment professional. The information on this blog is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or class of securities mentioned herein. Furthermore, the information on this blog should not be construed as an offer of advisory services. Please note that the author does not recommend specific securities nor is he responsible for comments made by persons posting on this blog.

Read the full article →

HAMP Report Revised After Analysts Question New Metric

July 27, 2010

This story was updated at 8:00 p.m. ET to include two comments from a Treasury Department official. The Obama administration has revised its latest monthly report on its signature foreclosure-prevention plan, deleting a heavily-criticized performance metric used to measure whether assisted homeowners are re-defaulting on their taxpayer-financed mortgages. The Treasury Department claims that Fannie Mae, which administers its Home Affordable Modification Program, screwed up. As a consequence, the public can no longer tell whether homeowners with HAMP modifications, which limits monthly payments to 31 percent of income, are being placed in sustainable mortgages. A voicemail message left on the cellphone of a Fannie Mae spokesman seeking comment was not returned. The report on the Home Affordable Modification Program — an effort promised to lower mortgage payments for three to four million Americans — details the number of homeowners who have signed up for trial modifications, how many have received five-year mods, the number of homeowners bounced from the program, also known as HAMP, and the amount of money the affected homeowners are saving, among other metrics. However, one key detail — the pace at which HAMP homeowners are falling behind on their new lower monthly payments and re-defaulting — had been missing until last week, when the administration unveiled it in its report on the program’s progress through June. The rate was remarkably low, which raised eyebrows among some housing analysts. While about 42 percent of homeowners in mortgages modified prior to HAMP had fallen at least 60 days delinquent six months after their mortgages were altered, the administration reported that just under six percent of HAMP homeowners were at least 60 days late six months after their mortgages were modified, according to data maintained by federal bank regulators and the Treasury Department. Six months is considered to be a key metric for judging homeowners’ ability to keep up with payments. Herbert M. Allison Jr., Treasury’s assistant secretary for financial stability, highlighted the rate on a conference call with reporters last week, praising it as “very low.” In an otherwise bleak report on the state of the program — more homeowners have been bounced from HAMP than have received permanent relief — the re-default rate was seen as overwhelmingly positive. But economists and Wall Street analysts weren’t impressed. In a Wednesday note to clients, Sandeep Bordia and Jasraj Vaidya of Barclays Capital wrote that the data was “misleading.” Celia Chen, an economist and specialist in housing for Moody’s Economy.com, said in an interview that the incredibly low re-default rate “just doesn’t sound right to me.” The problem they identified had to do with how Treasury was calculating the rate. In the report, Treasury stated that a “HAMP permanent modification is canceled for nonpayment if it is more than 90 days delinquent.” To the Barclays Capital analysts, it appeared that Treasury was thus not including those homeowners with five-year modifications who were kicked out of the program. More than 8,600 homeowners have been bounced from HAMP. The Barclays analysts said the move made the re-default rate look “too low” and “fail[s] to capture the full magnitude of re-defaults from these modifications.” Treasury caught on. “Subsequent to releasing the report, Treasury received inquiries regarding the calculation methodology used in this table,” spokesman Mark Paustenbach said Tuesday. “These inquiries were related to the treatment of modifications that are cancelled from HAMP and ultimately become ineligible for TARP incentives after 90 days delinquency. “In an effort to review and better explain the methodology, we learned from our program administrator, Fannie Mae, that not all cancelled loans were included in the underlying information provided to Treasury,” Paustenbach continued. “The error caused inconsistent reporting of permanent modifications during the snapshots reported. These omissions have impacted our previous analysis… with respect to the performance of HAMP permanent modifications.” A Treasury official added that the agency had approved a methodology that included cancelled modifications, but Fannie Mae’s coding error led to those mods not being included in their calculation of re-default rates. The official added that Treasury will release the revised data when it’s confident in its accuracy. Some dated figures are available, though. Through March, federal bank regulators report that about 7.7 percent of HAMP homeowners were 60 or more days delinquent on their modified mortgages three months after the modified mortgage took effect. Overall, 11.3 percent of modifications completed during the last three months of 2009 were at least 60 days late after three months, according to the June 23 report by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision. Mortgages modified during the fourth quarter of 2009 have exhibited lower re-default rates, bank regulators note. By comparison, homeowners with reworked loans during the fourth quarter of 2008 were falling at least 60 days behind on their payments after three months at a 29.9 percent clip. Regulators attribute the lower re-default rates to the significantly lower payments newly-modified loans require, according to their June 23 report. Experts say HAMP played a large role in the change. In place of the now-deleted table, in a revised report posted Monday to their FinancialStability.gov Web site, Treasury said: “Since the Making Home Affordable report was posted on July 20th, Fannie Mae, which administers the program, has reported to Treasury an issue in its implementation of the delinquency statistic methodology used to report performance of permanent modifications. Fannie Mae is now revising the data, and Treasury has retained a third-party consultant to provide additional review and validation. Upon completion of that independent review, a revised table will be provided.” Meanwhile, last month analysts at Fitch Ratings projected that as many as 75 percent of HAMP modifications will ultimately result in re-default — despite the lower monthly payments. In their note last week, the Barclays analysts said they’re sticking to their original re-default projection of about 60 percent. ************************* Shahien Nasiripour is the business reporter for the Huffington Post. You can send him an e-mail ; bookmark his page ; subscribe to his RSS feed ; follow him on Twitter ; friend him on Facebook ; become a fan ; and/or get e-mail alerts when he reports the latest news. He can be reached at 646-274-2455.

Read the full article →

Charles H. Green: CNBC Panel on Improving Business Confidence Doesn’t

July 27, 2010

(co-authored with Rich Sternhell) On July 22, the Gallup organization released their 2010 poll on US Confidence in Institutions. As Gallup headlined it, Congress scored an all time low (for all 16 institutions ranked, not just for Congress). Barely beating Congress for lowest confidence ratings were, in order, HMOs (15th out of 16), Big Business (14th), organized labor (13th), and television news (12th). The Presidency, which also shows declines, still ranks 7th out of 16. So it was fitting that CNBC (that would be in the 12th out of 16 group) put together a three part special panel discussion on “Restoring Trust in Business” (that would be in the 14th out of 16 group). The panelists included Gordon Bethune , Bill George and Myrtle Potter (representing the 14th out of 16 group), and Christie Todd Whitman (there wasn’t a category for ex-State Governors and Bush cabinet secretaries, but I’d hazard a wild guess she generally fit in). Interestingly, there was consensus on the panel about how to restore trust in business. Answer: It’s the government’s fault. How Good Shows Go Bad Given our blogpost of yesterday about the hazards of relying on those-who-summarize (including me), here are links directly to the show so you can make up your own mind. The show–originally advertised (we recall) as “Restoring Trust in Business,” ended up after broadcast on CNBC’s website in three different sequences: ” Leadership in Government, ” ” Leadership in Corporate America ,” and ” Leadership and Trust .” As CNBC’s John Harwood points out at the outset, the declining trends are long-term–since the 1970s, and particularly since 1994–and they apply across nearly all institutions. (See Gallup’s historical data, here.) The four leaders invited have some fine credentials. Bethune was a revered CEO in the airline industry, where it’s very hard to be revered by anyone. George was a successful CEO, and writes on leadership. Potter was a COO at Genentech, and Whitman ran the State of NJ and the EPA. Good choices to opine about how business can regain confidence. Give CNBC credit. Not only did they tee it up right, but nearly half the questions they asked more or less rhymed with, “how has business lost confidence?” or “how can business and the markets regain confidence,” or “what must be done for Americans to regain confidence in business?” We would expect that the first thing we’d hear from any one of these leaders on the subject of restoring confidence in their institutions would be a straightforward acknowledgment of what was lost, and a statement of responsibility for having lost it. Is that not unreasonable to expect of distinguished leaders? And indeed, every leader did get off at least one direct acknowledgment that business might have to improve itself–but having done the curtsey toward the question, the bulk of their comments were reserved for tax policy, government regulatory foibles, and flawed federal government policy. Instead, here’s what we got (we’re paraphrasing: go ahead, check our interpretation here .) Q. If you look at the data Hartman reviewed before for us, the congressional approval rating is low. Yet contrast that with the issues that got accomplished this year; various reforms–what is it that isn’t connecting here? Whitman: You’ve seen a move in government away from policy to politics; everything’s partisan now. (She then proceeds to attack Nancy Pelosi). Q. What do you think needs to be done to restore trust in business? Potter: Business needs to take responsibility for stewardship and its own governance. We can think of examples where that didn’t happen. We also have to think carefully about how we’re paying so we can drive innovation. Innovation used to drive the world from the US, but not now. Q. I’m interested in your view, Mr. George; you say the crisis wasn’t caused by subprime or derivatives. Wasn’t it caused by flawed leadership putting its own interests before its clients or its people? George: No question about that; we saw flawed leadership in Enron and all the companies that blew up back in 2003, we saw it on Wall Street. Most of those leaders and their companies have gone away. But it is about leadership in government. We need to emphasize policy not bickering; we need a jobs policy. I’d like to see the President step up to a rebuild America program. Q. In terms of business’s relationships to government, why doesn’t it seem to be working? Potter : Well everyone’s feeling the crunch, but what stands out is jobs. Jobs are so critical to America feeling more confident about the country, and yet this chasm has to be closed between government and business. Q. What is your best advice to the administration on what can be done to restore trust and confidence in business and in Wall Street? Whitman : Clearly we need a rigorous regulatory policy, but we need to stop this gotcha attitude of blame-throwing in congress. The BP disaster turned into a criminal investigations instead of focusing on how to fix things. Clearly there was a problem on the regulatory side as well. We need to show respect for each other. Bethune: You have to demonstrate some performance, not talk. No one in our government ever ran a business. The administration shouldn’t have focused on health care or regulatory reform, but on jobs…business doesn’t like uncertainty. Q. Most people don’t expect as good a world for their kids as they had. Whitman: The main thing is we’ve got to do is get deficit spending under control. Q. One reason people don’t have trust in business is that, at the height of the crisis, big financial companies took big bonuses and were bailed out: what’s your take on that, Mr. George? George: Goldman didn’t pay any bonuses last year. Trust is the fuel that enables society to run….but we need policies from government that create incentives. Goldman, JPMorganChase and are rethinking compensation to have pay for performance….investing in America….lower capital gains tax. But that won’t solve this jobs crisis. We’ve got to get back to investing in America. Q. What is your one piece of advice that would reassure people that the future is going to be better for them? Bethune: Tax policy; articulate it, make it pro growth, pro business, put cash to work, make the future clear in order to get confidence. You be the judge, but let us suggest a simple headline. When the institution that ranks 14th out of 16 shows up to talk about restoring confidence in their institution–given a decades-long decline–we ought to expect something more than a short-term political bashing of the 7th- and 16th-ranked institutions, a la the Sunday morning political interview shows. Business, heal thyself. This post co-authored with Rich Sternhell. Sternhell retired from Towers Watson as a Managing Principal after a career of more than 30 years and is now an independent consultant.

Read the full article →

Irene Aldridge: How Profitable Are High-Frequency Strategies?

July 26, 2010

High frequency trading has been taking Wall Street by storm.  While no institution thoroughly tracks performance of high-frequency funds as of the date this article is written, colloquial evidence suggests that the majority of high-frequency managers delivered positive returns through the most recent financial crises. The discourse on what is the profitability of high-frequency trading strategies always runs into the question of availability of performance data on returns realized at different frequencies.  Hard data on performance of high-frequency strategies is indeed hard to find.  Hedge funds successfully running high-frequency strategies tend to shun the public limelight.  Others produce data from questionable sources. Yet, performance at different frequencies can compared using publicly available data by estimating the maximum potential profitability.  Profitability of trading strategies is often measured by Sharpe ratios, a risk-adjusted return metric first proposed by a Nobel Prize winner, William Sharpe.  A Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk; a Sharpe ratio of 2 means that the average annualized return on the strategy twice exceeds the annualized standard deviation of strategy returns: if the annualized return of a strategy is 12%, the standard deviation of returns is 6%.  The Sharpe ratio further implies the distribution of returns: statistically, in 95% of cases, the annual returns are likely stay within 2 standard deviations from the average.  In other words, in any given year, the strategy of Sharpe ratio of 2 and annualized return of 12% is expected to generate returns from 0% to 24% with 95% statistical confidence, or 95% of time. The maximum possible Sharpe ratio for a given trading frequency is computed as a sample period’s average range (High – Low) divided by the sample period’s standard deviation of the range, adjusted by square root of the number of observations in a year.  Note that high-frequency strategies normally do not carry overnight positions, and, therefore, do not incur the overnight carry cost often proxied by the risk-free rate in Sharpe ratios of longer-term investments. Table 1 compares the maximum Sharpe Ratios that could be attained at 10-second, 1-minute, 10-minute, 1-hour and 1-day frequencies in EUR/USD.  The results are computed ex-post with perfect 20/20 hindsight on the data for 30 trading days from March 11, 2009 through March 22, 2009.  The return is calculated as the maximum return attainable during the observation period within each interval at different frequencies.  Thus, the average 10-second return is calculated as the average of ranges (high-low) of EUR/USD prices in all 10-second intervals from March 11, 2009, through March 22, 2009.  The standard deviation is then calculated as the standard deviation of all price ranges at a given frequency within the sample. Table 1. Theoretical Performance Limits for Trading Strategies Running at Different Frequencies As Table 1 shows, the maximum profitability of trading strategies measured using Sharpe ratios increases with increases in trading frequencies. From March 11, 2009, through March 22, 2009, the maximum possible annualized Sharpe ratio for EUR/USD trading strategies with daily position rebalancing was 37.3, while EUR/USD trading strategies that held positions for 10 seconds could potentially score Sharpe ratios well over 5,000 (five thousand) mark. In practice, well-designed and implemented strategies trading at the highest frequencies tend to produce double-digit Sharpe ratios. Real-life Sharpe ratios for well-executed daily strategies tend to fall in the 1-2 range.

Read the full article →

Dan Dorfman: A Cockeyed Optimist no More

July 23, 2010

How quickly they forget! That’s the army of stock players. Thanks to a slew of sunny second-quarter earnings reports in recent days, which drove up the Dow Industrials more than 300 points in the past week’s final two trading sessions, many impressionable investors have begun scooping up equities again. In the process, they’ve virtually ignored some very pertinent facts: In brief, the latest earnings numbers were up against weak year-earlier comparisons, which means the vigor of future gains figures to level off sharply in the quarters ahead. Likewise, much of the earnings strength, as it was in the first quarter, reflected sharp cost reductions, namely substantial layoffs and hefty cutbacks in capital spending, trends which must be reversed if the economy is to start percolating again. Surprisingly, Big Ben was also ignored by many investors’ in their renewed craving for equities, which sent the Dow soaring 201 points on Thursday amid rosy earnings reports from such corporate biggies as Caterpillar, Microsoft, UPS and Triple M.. No, that’s not London’s Big Ben, the famous clock tower, but the U.S.A.’s “Big Ben” — Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke, who only a day earlier warned Congress that the economic outlook remains “unusually uncertain.” Not only that, Bernanke noted the labor market was the worst since the Great Depression, that housing remained weak with an overhang of vacant or foreclosed houses weighing on home prices and construction, and that bank loans outstanding have continued to contract. Not surprisingly, his remarks — which investors seemed to have forgotten about — pushed stock prices lower on Wednesday, with the Dow dropping 109 points. But given Thursday’s rousing rebound in stock prices, followed by another 102-point Dow gain on Friday, Bernanke’s warning suddenly became a fleeting memory as investors strove to make a fast buck on what many obviously hoped was the beginning of a new market rally. One economic and market bear, investment adviser Martin Weiss of Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla., thinks that was a dumb reaction. His reasoning: Bernanke’s worrisome economic outlook comes from a man whose job invariably makes him extremely reluctant to admit to negative trends in any sector at any time. “If Bernanke is saying things are bad, you can bet your bottom dollar they’re actually far worse,” Weiss says. That seems to make a lot of sense since our big Ben usually leans to the brighter side, And if things look bad, Bernanke is usually quick to suggest they’ll likely get better soon. Some market watchers, though,, plagiarizing the name of one of those snappy tunes from South Pacific, have dubbed Bernanke a cockeyed optimist. His “unusually uncertain” comment, however, indicates he may be rethinking some of that optimism. Meanwhile, Weiss is urging his clients to reduce their exposure to the stock market, especially sectors vulnerable to a double-dip recession, such as housing and construction, retail, manufacturing and banking. Investors, he says, should keep most of their money tucked away in short-term Treasury bills and equivalent investments. “The return on your money, no matter how low the returns,” he observes, “is not nearly as big of an issue as the return of your money.” He also recommends a core position in gold either through the bullion, a gold exchange-traded fund, or both. Bernanke’s remarks also raise some question about the legitimacy of expected economic growth, which generally calls for GDP gains of slightly more than 3% both in 2010 and 2011. JC Spender, an economist at the Wells University Business School in Milton Keynes, U.K., ridicules such prognosis. Taking note of Bernanke’s comments, Spender says he was cautioning against “irrational exuberance” and he’s right; the fat lady hasn’t sung and there are still plenty of risks out there. Spender thinks anyone forecasting the economy here is an idiot. For starters, he notes the U.S. won’t be in good shape until unemployment is half of what it is now. (Most economists say such an achievement is years away, with some contending it may not occur until 2013 or 2014). Spender further notes that banks aren’t lending, we’re still stuck with a residential housing disaster, commercial real estate, a major problem, is hanging in the wings and waiting to appear, and the course of commodities is a big uncertainty. If nothing bad happens, observes Spender, it’ll take at least the best part of a couple of years to get confidence back again. Michael Markowski, head of StockDiagnostics.com, an online service that monitors cash flow, tells me his data shows that U.S. public companies have yet to recover from the recession. “Cash flow is not growing and we’re seeing cashless earnings,” he says. Noting that many bulls are throwing in the towel, Markowski sees the Dow–now at 10,4214–falling to between 5,000 and 6,000 by next year. He also looks for a major contraction in price-earnings multiples, with the S&P 500, now at around 13, skidding to about 8 by 2011. Pointing to the lack of dividend growth, he notes that without dividend growth, P/E multiples contract. Stocks with the highest multiples, notably the technology sector, and Apple and Google in particular, are thought to be most vulnerable in the declining market Markowski envisions. On the other hand, pointing to what he views as a present deflationary environment, he sees both utilities and energy benefitting from lower energy costs. Rick Eakle, a former market strategist at Morgan Stanley, shares Markowski’s negative market view. Making light of the recent rally, he sees bad days ahead for investors, arguing we’re still in a downtrend. His reasoning: a sputtering economy, a weakening of market leadership, particularly in the technology and financial sectors, close to a peak in favorable quarterly earnings comparisons, a lot of overhead supply and pressure on the dollar. “I would be very light in equity exposure,” he says. “It’s strictly a trader’s market.” Noting that both the 200 and 50-day moving averages have rolled over, Eakle says “the market is clearly headed down.” His favorite investment: ProShares S&P 500 (SH), an exchange-traded fund that’s geared to rise in value if the S&P 500 goes lower. And that’s precisely Eakle’s forecast: a drop in the index to 900 in the next month or two from its current level of 1102. Meanwhile, the key point here is it makes no sense to sell big Ben short. He often wears rose-colored glasses and tries to ease our fears with sugar-coated platitudes. But judging from his current concerns, any optometrist will probably tell you his economic vision is 20-20. What do you think? E-mail me at Dandordan@aol.com

Read the full article →

Michael Tasner: Conducting a 360 Degree Review of Your Web Platform and Marketing Efforts

July 23, 2010

I’m a huge fan of 360-degree reviews. You may have heard of these. They are typically used in the Human Resource department of a company for employee reviews. The objective of the review is to get a view from all different angles (thus the name 360 degrees) of the particular employee. Here’s how it works: You’re an employee working at one of the large automakers (who will remain nameless). Assuming you still have a job, you work daily with other employees just like you, for a direct supervisor. You have people reporting directly to you. In the process of conducting your review to decide whether you will get a two-cent-per-hour raise (I know, don’t get too excited), your performance will be reviewed by your boss, your peers, and your own direct reports. This ensures that you’re getting the most accurate representation of the quality of your work. It also serves as a great checks-and-balances system. If your boss didn’t like you, that is only one leg of the review. And one of these days you will be part of your boss’s 360-degree review. Let’s take similar methodology and apply it to your current marketing tactics. This will allow us to see your greatest opportunities for expansion. Step 1: Make a list of all the people who have a hand in or are touched by your marketing efforts. For example: The CEO, your marketing director, marketing executives, salespeople, engineers, research and development folks, vendors, partners, and your customers. The key here is to make sure you are not leaving anyone out. If you miss one person, you are not fully getting a 360-degree review. Step 2: Construct two to three surveys for those people to complete. The first survey will go to all internal employees, the second to your vendors/partners, if applicable, and the last to your customers. It’s up to you if you want to send this to all your customers. It depends highly on how many customers you have. If you’re a smaller company, I recommend sending it to all your customers. If you’re a larger company with thousands of customers, send it to enough clients to get a good response back. Typical response rates range from 3% to 10%. I’ve seen lower, but I’ve also seen response rates as high as 90%. But those are just the averages. A few important notes on these surveys: I encourage you to send these 100% electronically. When sending surveys electronically, you have a much higher chance of getting a response. There are various survey tools out there, such as SurveyMonkey.com , Zoomerang.com , and KeySurvey.com . Keep them short to increase your response rate. Give some type of incentive for your outside vendors, partners, or customers to fill these out, and watch your response rates skyrocket. (For example, give them 10% off their next order.) Modify anything to fit your business. I like allowing for comments after each question to solicit additional feedback. The reason I ask and solicit more open-ended feedback is to ensure that we don’t miss any of the trends. Step 3: Compile the data. This is going to take you quite a bit of time. Here are some tips for compiling the data: Many of the survey software tools will do this for you. Develop three different Microsoft Excel files and label them appropriately (internal, vendors/partners, customers). Start with the quantifiable data and get that into Excel. Most likely this will be a simple export. Move on to the open-ended questions. Take all the responses for each question and place them into Excel so you can see all the data in front of you. Scroll down the column of open-ended questions and look for trends. I like to use the find feature in Excel to see whether similar words are being found. For example, you could search for craigslist to see all the places it was mentioned. When you find similar answers in the open-ended questions, group those together. When you have this task done, you should be able to easily see the results for the quantifiable section, and all the answers to the open-ended sections grouped together with similar thoughts. Lastly, do the same thing with the comments as you did with the open-ended questions: Group similar comments together, using the find feature to aid in this task. Step 4: Interpret the data. You now have your data organized in a much more logical format so that you can start figuring out what it all means. Print out all the sheets and spread them out across a long desk so you can see everything. What you’re looking for here are trends across the various groups, as well as weaknesses in your marketing strategy. Keep in mind that in this exercise bad news is actually good — it’s what you’re looking for. It’s great to see the good stuff, but we’re more concerned with the areas in which you need to improve because these are your greatest opportunities for improvement and growth. What you are most likely going to find is two-fold: 20% of your marketing is producing the most results. The other 80% is a waste of time, money, and energy. The above is an adapted excerpt from the book Marketing in the Moment: The Practical Guide to Using Web 3.0 Marketing to Reach Your Customers First by Michael Tasner. The above excerpt is a digitally scanned reproduction of text from print. Although this excerpt has been proofread, occasional errors may appear due to the scanning process. Please refer to the finished book for accuracy. Copyright © 2010 Michael Tasner, author of Marketing in the Moment: The Practical Guide to Using Web 3.0 Marketing to Reach Your Customers First

Read the full article →

Gulf Oil Spill: Feds Work To Put A Price On Damage

July 22, 2010

BAY RONQUILLE, La. — The marsh is soaked with oil and the grass is dying. It’s a common sight on the Gulf coast these days, and it’s nothing new for Robert Nailon. The BP-hired environmental consultant kneels as he has done many times on the Louisiana coast, assessing the damage in a task now taking on new importance as the world’s attention turns from the ubiquitous images of gushing oil to the daunting task of restoration. He dips his hand, covered in a blue rubber glove, into the muddy ground. It comes up streaked brown with crude. “You’ve got sheen throughout,” he says, and calls out his findings to a government scientist: Oil covers about 95 percent of the grass, reaching about 15 feet inland. Both men nod, agreeing to add this stretch to the growing and painstaking census of the dead from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. About 40 BP-government teams are cataloguing seemingly everything touched by the oil, from poisoned plankton and fish to lost marshes and stained beaches. BP PLC will eventually be given two options: Restore everything itself, or pay the government to do it. Before a final bill is written, however, those tallying the damage must still account for things they can’t see – from contaminated fish eggs that never hatch to impacts that may take years to show. Some experts worry BP could exploit the uncertainty to minimize its responsibility. “If you end up with a bunch of dead fish five years from now, it becomes very hard to prove BP killed them,” said Mark Davis, director of Tulane University’s Institute on Water Resources Law and Policy. BP spokesman John Curry declined to detail any potential challenges his company might make regarding wildlife and habitat claims. “We’re not trying to run and hide from the situation,” he said. “Bottom line is we want to know exactly what the impact is, too.” So far, about 4,000 birds, more than 700 sea turtles, dozens of dolphins and one whale have been found dead, or alive but oiled. Oil has hit some 600 miles of shoreline and at least 44,000 square miles of the Gulf. The count doesn’t include the hundreds of oiled birds left in the wild to avoid disturbing their nesting grounds. Pinpointing damage beneath the Gulf’s surface, however, is turning into an even bigger problem. “It’s a 3-D challenge,” said Tom Brosnan, chief of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s assessment and restoration division. “It’s not just on the shoreline, it’s at depth, down to 5,000 feet in the Gulf.” The government is deploying remotely operated submarines to get snapshots of what is happening in the deep, as well as collecting water samples to assess the populations of plankton and other small organisms. Computers will use the information gathered to produce estimates of how many plankton, fish or shrimp are killed based in part on how much habitat is ruined. Gauging the consequences could take years and require some calculated guesswork to account for wildlife that dies or suffers unseen. Federal officials haven’t said whether they’ve assigned a cost to everything. In some cases, however, arriving at a cost can be as straightforward as similar efforts during the 11 million-gallon Exxon Valdez spill in 1989 in Alaska. The state priced each seagull at $167, eagles at $22,000, harbor seals at $700 and killer whales at $300,000. The scope of the latest census is enormous – the Gulf spill has so far unleashed between 91 and 179 million gallons of oil – and the cost of that tally will likely prove expensive in itself. In the case of the Valdez, $125 million has been spent on scientific research since the spill in Prince William Sound, said Stan Senner, Alaska’s restoration program manager following the spill and now director of science for the Ocean Conservancy. Exxon settled with the government for its restoration costs in 1991, for $900 million. Another request 15 years later for $92 million more is pending. In what could be a cautionary note for those working the BP spill, the settlement with Exxon never addressed a major impact tied to the Valdez by some scientists – the collapse of the Pacific herring population. That’s in large part because the collapse came two years after the settlement. BP executives have pledged to “make things right.” But they have disputed some scientific findings, including claims that plumes of oil stretch for miles in the deep waters around the site of the Deepwater Horizon rig, which blew up April 20 and unleashed the nearly three-month-long oil geyser. The issue of the plumes first arose in late May, when BP chief executive Tony Hayward was asked about them in an Associated Press interview. His reply: “What plumes?” Acknowledging the plumes would have amounted to an admission of responsibility, said Larry McKinney, director of the Harte Research Institute at Texas A&M University. And the company’s advantage increases as more time passes, said Tulane’s Davis. “We may all be in this together, but we’re not in this for the same reasons. (BP’s) duty to their shareholders is to make money.” Once the field teams collect their information, BP and the government will analyze the data separately and reach their own conclusions on damages. Even if BP disputes scientists’ findings, the 1990 Oil Spill Pollution act puts the burden of proof on the company in any disputes over liability and how harm is calculated. BP’s obligations go beyond wildlife and habitat to include what’s lost to humans: each visit to the beach denied by oily sands, all the Gulf fishing trips that will never be taken. Back along the coast, where a steady parade of boats were being loaded with cleanup workers, Venice, La., charter boat fisherman Peter Young scoffed at the effort to track the damage. “They’re basically spitting in the wind,” he said.

Read the full article →

David Isenberg: The GAO Transcripts, Part 11: Back in The Iraqi PMC Gold Rush Days

July 10, 2010

This is the eleventh installment of the Government Accountability Office interview transcripts that were prepared pursuant to the July 2005 GAO report ” Rebuilding Iraq: Actions Needed To Improve Use of Private Security Providers .” This transcript is noteworthy for its reference to the letter from the old Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) to Congressman Ike Skelton (D-MO). Back in 2004 in response to his request for a count of private military contractors in Iraq the CPA did compile a report listing 60 PMCs with an aggregate total of 20,000 personnel. That number included U.S. citizens, third-country nationals and Iraqis. But even back then the CPA list was obviously incomplete, missing, for example, CACI and Titan personnel, both implicated in the Abu Ghraib prison torture scandal. Remember that these were the gold rush days for PMCS. As the transcript says, “Many companies get into Iraq whichever way they can and then register later.” As the transcript makes clear it is no wonder that the CPA was so ill-prepared to answer questions on PMCS . Until _______________ assumed his position in Iraq, _______________ stated that there wasn’t anyone dealing with PSC issues or tracking their presence in Iraq. No regulations existed which required PSC to meet with him or coordinate with the CPA. Essentially, _______________ as at the mercy of the PSCs and could only meet with those companies that volunteered to meet with him. Standard disclaimer: I have put in ( _____ ) to reflect those words of phrases which have been blacked out in the transcript. I have also put in the underlining as it appeared in the original transcript. As in the transcript, I have left out letters from various words, even when it seems obvious what the word is. Prepared by: Kate Walker Index: Type bundle index here Date Prepared: August 17, 2004 DOC Number: Type document number here Reviewed bye Type, reviewer name here DOC Library: Type library name here Job Code: 350544 Record of Interview Title Regulation of PSC in Iraq Purpose To learn more about CPA regulation of PSC Contact Method Face to face Contact Place Pentagon Contact Date August 10, 2004 Participants _______________ _______________ Steve Sternlieb, Director, DCM, GAO Carole Coffey, AIC, DCM, GAO Kate Walker, Analyst, GAO Comments/Remarks: _______________ et with us to discuss their knowledge of CPA provisions for private security contractors (PSCs), orks for the _______________ PCO), formerly known as the Project Management Office (1 MO). The PCO is a Department of the Army that serves as an operations intelligence center for military based in Iraq. The PCO is responsible for executing the $1.4B Iraqi reconstruction fund. Prior to working for the PCC _______________ was in the intelligence community for a number of years and later moved into the private sector working in international corporate finance accounting or the past fourteen months, he has been working on Iraq issues. He is currently the _______________ PCO. _______________wrote the _______________ He worked with _______________CPA employee that attempted to address PSC issues in Iraq, on this letter. _______________ no longer on the CPA staff or working for the PCO. She explained that she was not a contracting officer; rather she was a _______________ ocusing specifically on timelines. _______________ orked fo: _______________ fore coming to the CPA. When she left the CPA, she went to work for the Army. Tracking PSCs in Iraq _______________ stated that the list of companies providing private security in Iraq in the response letter from the CPA to Congressman Skelton was a guess because there is no database that holds PSC information in Iraq. The companies listed where drawn from _______________ experience with contractors in Iraq. _______________ thinks that the State Department (DOS) might have some records, but believes their information to be very limited. In addition, he finds the embassy headcounts of PSC personnel to be inefficient because many PSC personnel only in the country for a short time fail to report their presence. _______________believes that Army counts on PSCs are inaccurate. Many companies get into Iraq whichever way they can and then register later. _______________ holds that it would be difficult to report on the number of PSC in Iraq because no one source holds the entire universe of contractors in the CENTCOM AOR. In addition, of the data that could be collected, we still wouldn’t know what kind of error existed in the data and could not separate security contractors from other contractors. Page 1 Record of Interview Until _______________ assumed his position in Iraq, _______________ stated that there wasn’t anyone dealing with PSC issues or tracking their presence in Iraq. No regulations existed which required PSC to meet with him or coordinate with the CPA. Essentially, _______________ as at the mercy of the PSCs and could only meet with those companies that volunteered to meet with him. By default, _______________ became the hub of information for PSC. From _______________ erspective, PSCs were not a part of CJTF7′s purview; PSCs were shut out. _______________was the first to implement registration for PSCs and their weapons; he issued weapons cards in accordance with CPA Order 3. Under ism, command, PSCs also had to register with the PMO or sector PMO (he PMO is now the PCO per _______________ PSC did not have to register information on home country nationals (HCN). To help bridge the information gap that PSC faced, _______________ ranged an informal weekly social event at the Palace for PSCs to gather and share any intelligence they had gathered. _______________ also utilized email newsletters to update and inform participating PSCs of any intelligence he received from either other PSCs or his contacts in the military. Any intelligence that he received was not attributed to its contributor. Since _______________ taken on the onus of information sharing for PSC _______________ indicated that some PSCs garnered information informally through their contacts in the military. Official contacts in the military for PSCs, however, were few, and far between. In addition to _______________ previous and ______________________________ current efforts, _______________ is running a fusion center for PSCs. The PCO also recently awarded a contract to _______________ create and implement a defense communication system for sharing operational and intelligence information between the military and PSCs. _______________ eports that, as it stands now, the military does not know what is happening on the ground with regard to the movement of PSCs. Memorandum 17 Memorandum 17 was created by _______________ a member of the MOI staff in order to address the lack of licensing or registration required for private security contractors. Memorandum 17 also addressed concerns that insurgents might use PSCs as a cover that would allow them to commit subversive acts. _______________ esigned Memorandum 17 to include a number of hurdles that he believed legitimate PSCs could overcome easily. Under Memorandum 17, PSC are required to 1) submit information to sector PMOs, 2) obtain a business license from the MOT and 3) get an operating license from the MOI. Memorandum 17 also increases the training requirement for PSC personnel. _______________ eports that these standards will be tougher for mid- and lower-tier companies to obtain. Upper-tier companies should have no problems meeting these requirements. The point of these hurdles was not to overly burden PSCs, but rather to keep out illegitimate PSC. While Mr. _______________ cknowledges that Memorandum 17′s requirements are slightly burdensome, he does not think that they are overly stringent. Rather, he believes the regulations reflect the typical type of hurdles that companies face in 3rd world countries, given his background in international business. Memorandum 17 was also created to better address the fact that Iraq is becoming an individual nation and serves as a baseline for Iraq. Memorandum 17 also gives PSC personnel immunity while they are on duty in Iraq. If they are off-duty and commit a crime, however, they will be held liable to Iraqi law. In conjunction with Memorandum 17, a guidebook for PSC has been put together, but has not yet been released. _______________ sure that MOMVIOT is at the point to address Memorandum 17 now, but said that _______________ uld know better. _______________inks that they probably do not have the capability. Page 2 Record of Interview Communication In the past, communication has been a definite problem for PSCs. _______________ eports that a more robust system for dedicating frequencies is now in place, making it easier for PSC to get their own frequency band. _______________ eported that PSCs have contact information for military officials and that the military is accessible via telephone and cellular modes. _______________ d not, however, know how often and under what circumstances PSCs call and request military aid. What the Military Provides _______________ found that the military helped PSCs to the extent to which they could afford. He also believes that the military would be more inclined to help higher profile contracts. The general sentiment among military officials is that most contractors have their own security or subcontracted for security, so military aid was not necessary. _______________ssumes that military approaches to PSCs are partially personality driven. Convoy security and aid from the military are few and far between. _______________ said that more experienced PSCs will sometimes put convoys together with other PSC. _______________ lso reported that PSCs that met with him were coming up with their own escape plans because DOS was wrapped up in itself. He suggested that we talk to people on the ground in Iraq to get a clearer picture of how the military operates with PSCs. CPA Usage of PSC The CPA used contract security extensively at its 8-10 compounds around Iraq. As the CPA facility is going away, the organization no longer needs PSC contracts. All but four former contractors with the CPA have lost their jobs; DOS overtook the contracts of those that are still employed. Incident Reporting When PSCs come under attack, they can file situation reports (sitreps) on the SIPRnet. These reports typically cover rocket attacks, mortar rounds, convoy attacks, etc. These sitreps are not comprehensive, however, as _______________ elieves there to be a large degree of underreporting. _______________ ontract There are a lot of concerns among PSCs about the leadership of the _______________ and their background. _______________ recalls tha _______________ a strong proposal. (Analyst note: We requested a copy of the contract from _______________ _______________ uggested that we contact: o _______________ works with contractors accompanying the force. o _______________MOI employee that wrote Memorandum 17. o _______________ DOS contact that deals with PSCs in Iraq, etc. Page 3 Record of Interview

Read the full article →

Robert Siciliano: Wireless Security is an Oxymoron, But There is Hope

July 6, 2010

WiFi is everywhere. Whether you travel for business or simply need Internet access while out and about, your options are plentiful. You can sign on at airports, hotels, coffee shops, fast food restaurants, and now, airplanes. What are your risk factors when accessing wireless? There are plenty. WiFi wasn’t born to be secure. It was born to be convenient. Wireless networks broadcast messages using radio and are thus more susceptible to eavesdropping than wired networks. Anyone using an open unsecured network risks exposing their data. There are many ways to see who’s connected on a wireless connection, and to gain access to their information. As more sensitive data has been wirelessly transmitted over the years, the need for security has evolved. Today, with criminal hackers as sophisticated as they ever have been, wireless communications are at an even higher risk. When setting up a wireless router, there are two different security protocol options. WiFi Protected Access (WPA and WPA2) is a certification program that was created in response to several serious weaknesses researchers had found in the previous system, Wired Equivalent Privacy. Wired Equivalent Privacy was introduced in 1997 and is the original version of wireless network security. There are a few things you should do to protect yourself while using wireless. Be smart about what kind of data you transmit on a public wireless connection. Only transmit critical data from secure sites, ones where “http”‘s appears in the address bar. These sites have additional encryption built in. Don’t store critical data on a device used outside the secure network. I have a laptop and an iPhone. If they are hacked, there’s no data on either device that would compromise my identity or financial security. If you have file sharing set up on a home network, when venturing to wireless hot spots you need to manually turn it off on your laptop. Turn off WiFi and Bluetooth on your laptop or cell phone when you’re not using them. An unattended device emitting wireless signals is very appealing to a criminal hacker. Beware of free WiFi connections. Anywhere you see a broadcast for “Free WiFi,” consider it a red flag. It’s likely that free WiFi is being used as bait. Beware of evil twins. Anyone can set up a router to say “T-Mobile” “ATT Wireless” or “Wayport”. These are connections can appear legitimate but are actually traps set to snare anyone who connects. Keep your anti-virus software and operating system updated. Make sure your antivirus software is automatically updated and your operating system’s critical security patches are up to date. Robert Siciliano, personal security and identity theft expert adviser to Just Ask Gemalto , discusses hackers hacking wireless networks on Fox Boston. ( Disclosures )

Read the full article →

Leah Anthony Libresco: A tale of phrenologists and predatory lenders

July 6, 2010

In Tennessee, defendants won a court case in which prosecutors had attempted to stop them from marketing a service that was to be “inherently fraudulent.” No, the above is not the latest update on the battle over overdraft fees and payday loans. The embattled businessmen were not part of the banking industry currently trying to lobby their way out of regulation, but a group of fortune tellers, who were successful in striking down a local ordinance requiring all fortunetellers, clairvoyants, hypnotists, phrenologists, etc. to post a disclaimer if they attempted to ply their trade for profit. The plaintiffs didn’t seek to outlaw fortunetelling per se, they just wanted the psychics held to some standard of truth in advertising. If the psychics couldn’t provide evidence to back up their own hype, well, that was just too bad. The rhetoric Barbara Moss, one of the attorneys for the psychics, argued that selling is a form of protected speech. She said: “A person is free to write or sell books saying that the earth is flat or the moon is made of green cheese. Our client should be free to make predictions, for fun or profit, without government interference.” This argument fails to recognize that there is a difference between claiming the moon is made of cheese and selling your cheese to gullible customers by marketing it as genuine moon-cheese, shipped back by satellite. The question comes up again and again for regulators and lawmakers. When is a product so harmful that it ought not be sold at all? When is a product so noxious that we can conclude that no one would freely choose to buy it if they were fully informed? This is what is at the root of many of our debates over cigarettes and other mostly toxic products. Companies argue that the existence of a market for the product shows that customers have judged what they’re selling to be worth the risk. This is the argument we keep hearing as the Senate lumbers towards passing a financial reform bill. The status quo is justified by its own existence, since no financial product or service would exist if there weren’t an eager market of perfectly rational actors eager to buy. This assertion ignores the fact that, even if most consumers were never used biased heuristics when making decisions, the choices of rational actors are only as good as the data they use to decide. Efforts to refine and simplify the data available to consumers is one of the most important avenues of reform. A recent study found that, when the actual costs of a payday loan are added to the standard disclosure of APR, people turn down the loans. Payday loans, at least in part, are a problem of limited information and education. The obvious solution is ensuring better financial education for all. But, given the our current inability to make sure high school graduates understand basic math, that day may be long in coming. Until we have a reasonable expectation that consumers are able to access and evaluate the data required to identify predatory loans, government regulation should fill the gap. Government regulation of financial services does limit the choices of consumers. That is its purpose. When we are unable to discern the correct choice, and the stakes are high, we ask other people to take the choice away from us and place it in the hands of people who know better. Just as the responsible drinker hands over her keys when she heads out to a party, we turn to regulatory limitations to prevent us from making choices that could harm us or others. People who are misinformed do not know that their reasoning is compromised. If we were capable of knowing which choices we couldn’t be trusted to make sensibly, we would be able to make them correctly in the first place. Psychologists call this problem the Dunning-Kruger Effect . Paternalistic regulations exist to help you make the choice you would have made if you were fully informed, and the financial sector, with its tiny print and deceptive practices (how many pleas from banks to not let your overdraft protection lapse did you get this summer?) is crying out for reform. Our banking system nearly collapsed because some quants claimed supernatural powers of prognostication. Let’s see if we can hold consumer credit providers to a higher standard than street corner clairvoyants.

Read the full article →

David Isenberg: The GAO Transcripts, Part 6: Coordinating PSC Activities in Iraq

July 4, 2010

This is the sixth installment of the Government Accountability Office interview transcripts that were prepared pursuant to the July 2005 GAO report ” Rebuilding Iraq: Actions Needed To Improve Use of Private Security Providers .” This transcript describes the coordination of private security details. Although this interview is not about any one private security contractor the PSC that had overall responsibility for doing so is Aegis Defence. Standard disclaimer: I have put in ( _____ ) to reflect those words of phrases which have been blacked out in the transcript. I have also put in the underlining as it appeared in the original transcript. As in the transcript, I have left out letters from various words, even when it seems obvious what the word is. Prepared by: Kate Walker Index: Date Prepared: December 2, 2004 DOC Number: 1220820 Reviewed by: Carole Coffey 01/0705 DOC Library: Type library name here Job Code: 350544 Record of Interview Title Interview with _________ Purpose To learn about PCO PSC coordination and th _________ Contract Contact Method Conference Call Contact Place GAO HQ and Baghdad, Iraq Contact Date December 2, 2004 Participants _________ Bill Solis, Director, DCM, GAO Steve Sternlieb, Assistant Director, DCM, GAO Carole Coffey, Analyst-in-Charge, DCM, GAO Kate Walker, Analyst, DCM, GAO Tim DiNapoli, Assistant Director, ASM, GAO Gary Delaney, Analyst-in-Charge, ASM, GAO Comments/Remarks : _________ is the _________ or the Iraq Project and Contracting Office (PCO), formerly know as the Coalition Provisional Authority. The PCO is responsible for all activities associated with the program, project, asset, construction and financial management of the reconstruction effort in Iraq. _________ _________ security contractor for the PCO. _________ provides private security detail (PSD) for the PCO director and key members of the PCO staff. ________currently has 23 vehicle escort teams and static guards in one location. Within the PCO are seven operational centers (a National Center known as the Reconstruction Operations Center (ROC) and 6 regional ROCs) that provide situational awareness, information and intelligence, and serve as an interface between the military and the contractors including PSCs in Iraq. The national operational center is located in Baghdad at the PCO headquarters and the regional centers are located in Mosul, Tikrit, Ramadi, Baghdad-Camp Victory, Hillah, and Basra. director and key members of the PCO staff. operates these centers under the same contract used to provide security to the PCO. Currently ________ s is about 90% staffed. ________ sent us a brief giving the overview and readiness status of the cell. Genesis of the PCO and Contractor Participation The PCO was created in anticipation that the State Department/Department of Defense (DOS/DOD) Interagency Memorandum would be signed. The DOS/DOD Interagency Memorandum called for the creation of an entity to oversee movement and intelligence sharing in Iraq – the PCO. Currently, contractors participate with the PCO on a voluntary basis. ________ reports that the PCO is seeing increased participation every day. If the Interagency Memorandum is signed, it will require contractors to register with the PCO. ________ said that in some cases, contracts would have to be revised. ________ does not know if all new contracts include provisions for registration with the PCO. Contractors were informed about the PCO through a series of meeting with each of the prime contractors’ security managers. When asked about the concerns conveyed by several contractors we interviewed ________ conjectured that the contractors we spoke with might have viewed ________ a competitor. ________ reported that the CPA-IG had conducted an analysis of the contract award. Page 1 Intelligence Sharing The G-2 at the PCO gets information from the MNFI G-2. This information is then sent to the ROC where, once it is cleared, is sent to.PSCs for their use. Contractors can get information about movement security, etc. from the PCO via the ROC. Communication There are currently three methods for real time communication among PSCs and PCO. 1. Land-lines 2. HF Radios–direct link communications with regional operation centers 1 3. Internet, Centrix, SIPRnet To request aid or communication with the ROC or the regional operations centers, PSCs must radio their own headquarters’ dispatch center and that dispatch center would then contact the ROC. The ROC will then contact the regional operations centers if necessary . PSCs can contact the regional operation centers directly, but ________believes this to be a complicated process. He also doesn’t believe that the current method of contact causes too much delay . The PCO also has transponder units that plug into security vehicles. These units provide the location of the vehicle every four minutes and also have a panic button in the boxes that can alert regional operation centers if there is an emergency. ________said, however, that there were only a certain number of boxes that contractors could check out. Future PCO contracts will require that all prime PCO contractors purchase these transponder units. Transponders can be acquired on the commercial marketplace. This is not a problem; however, because typically only transmittal equipment is available in the market and translating equipment is proprietary to specific companies. In an emergency, vehicles or convoys without these transponder units can contact the PCO via cellular phone, but ________indicated that cellular phones were often unreliable in Iraq. In addition to contacts at the PCO, contractors are also given contact numbers for the embassy and local military operation centers. ________informed us that there is also a password protected website that ________ maintains that is also used to disseminate information. ________ is unaware of any communication between the PCO and OSAC. ________ encourages informal relationships between contractors, PSCs, and the military, but thinks that the PCO should be monitoring these relationships ideally. Movement Coordination A recent policy has been developed for handoffs between division boundaries, but________ is unable to verify that the policy has been implemented. ________ scribes the policy concept as one of a series of checkpoints through which convoys must pass. The checkpoints occur before the boundary changes. Contractors are supposed to get their march credits approved by the military before they begin their movement. March credits are then to be passed on to relevant division commanders. Page 2 QRF Should a PSC need help, the ROC is responsible for arranging quick reaction force (QRF) aid. After a PSC contacts the ROC and indicates that they need help, the PCO would in turn contact the regional operation centers. The regional reconstruction operation centers (RROCs) are co-located with the major subordinate commands’ operations centers, so the moment the ROC contacts the RROC, the G-3 can be contacted. QRFs are provided by the military on a not to interfere basis ________ reported that the QRF usually works, but there have been some instances were QRF has been delayed. After action reports are written about these incidents only when something goes wrong and there is a lesson-learned type scenario. Database of Contractor Personnel If the Interagency Memorandum is signed, the PCO will be responsible for collecting information on contractors. The PCO is not sure how to collect this data The PCO thinks that the Army’s Logistics Support Element (part of the Army Material Command) would best be able to collect information on DOD contractors. Weapons The types of weapons contractors may use are listed in CPA Order 3. Version seven of the Interagency Memorandum would make the PCO responsible for maintaining a list of those Contractors who have been approved to issue weapons and ammunition under Section III of the interagency guidance. ________ knows of several PSCs that have attempted to register with the Iraqi Ministry of Interior (MOI) and Ministry of Trade (MOT), but have found that the MOI and MOT do not have to capability to register them. Interagency Memorandum ________ would like to see the Interagency Memorandum signed. While the Memorandum isn’t perfect, he thinks the memorandum can be modified as necessary. The ________ is concerned that the “Interagency Memorandum” has been reduced to “Interagency Guidance” because he believes that guidance does not carry the same weight as a memorandum. The ________ believes that if State and DOD can not come to an agreement on the guidance, DOD should issue the guidance on its own. The ________ said that once the guidance is issued, MNFI will issue an order to the major subordinate commands in Iraq to provide the military assistance laid out in the agreement. Current Status in Iraq According to ________ , regional operation centers are not fully integrated and are not fully functional. He believes they will be in the near future. Commanders are not fully informed about PSCs. ________ is trying to educate commanders to get them to see PSCs as “blue forces.” In doing so, ________ hopes to convince commanders that PSC need to be given the same military support as other military units in Iraq. ________ says that he has personally briefed each division commander of PSCs and their issues. Chain of Command While the PCO is under the COM command, it is operating under CENTCOM Order #1. The SJA at CENTCOM, however, told ________ hat CENTCOM Order #1 is not applicable because the PCO falls under COM command. ________ would like the PCO to fall under MNFI for security matters. Page 3 Recommendations ________ only recommendation would be to get the Interagency Memorandum signed. He believes that even if the memorandum were less that perfect, it still would give authorities something to modify and improve. He thinks that there needs to be some overarching guidance on private security contractors. ________provided us with the following documents: o A ROC Overview o A Brief describing the PSC Association o The latest draft of the Interagency Policy Guidance o Contact Information for Lawrence Peters o ROC Daily Briefing o A Security Operations Briefing Page 4

Read the full article →

Chris Bowers: Why We Must Pass the Wall Street Reform Bill

July 1, 2010

Below this short blog post, you will find a very lengthy description of what victories were won in the Wall Street reform bill, what compromises were made, and what defeats were suffered. It is, on balance, an argument for why we should pass the Wall Street reform bill, and a roadmap of where the fight continues. Senator Russ Feingold is a personal hero of mine. Yesterday, he posted an editorial explaining why he is opposing this bill. I am not going to pick a fight with Senator Feingold over what he could have done, or should have done on the bill. While this is a rebuttal of sorts, mainly it is to let people know that there is a lot of good in this bill, and it is possible to present that information in an honest, self-aware manner that acknowledges where it falls short. There are a lot of victories in this bill. We need to pass those victories into law. If the bill is defeated by pro-Wall Street forces over the next two weeks, the only parts which will be defeated are the victories, while all of its shortcomings will remain in place. If it is defeated, the 1999 financial deregulation package will remain the basic framework under which our financial system operates, and we all know how that worked out. If it is defeated, no one will ever really take on the banks again, as even after a financial meltdown, even at the trough of their popularity, and even during wide Democratic control of Congress, their victory now would demonstrate their invincibility. The list below was prepared by numerous people associated with Americans for Financial Reform . It is a work in progress, but I hope you find it to be a useful resource. Pass the bill. *** What happened on Wall Street Reform? Battles won, lost and somewhere in between… Systemic risk regulation We won : Systemic risk monitoring : A new, council of regulators will both monitor system-wide risk and advise the Federal Reserve Board – the current primary systemic risk regulator. Oversight and limits : For the first time, there will be higher capital, leverage and liquidity standards on the biggest, riskiest financial firms, as well as bank-like oversight for large “shadow bank” financial companies like AIG and the mortgage financers that were at the center of the crisis. We lost: There remains an unnecessary loophole, inserted in the Senate at the last minute that unnecessarily allows any financial firm that is just 16 percent commercial to escape oversight from the systemic risk council, no matter the threat the firm could pose to the economy. “The Volcker Rule” The so-called “Volcker Rule” ensures that banks do not make risky “proprietary” bets for their own accounts with taxpayer-backed deposit funds and limits investment in private funds. We won : The Volcker rule was not in the House bill at all. In the Senate-passed version, regulators had wide authority to define proprietary trading. The conference report tightens the definition, narrows exemptions and makes the rule a law, not able to be undone by future regulators. It also includes language banning Goldman-style conflicts-of-interest wherein Wall Street firms package risky securities for customers and then bet that they will fail. We lost : Long before the conference, efforts to limit the size of banks, as in the Brown-Kaufman amendment, or fully separate Wall Street speculation from Main Street banks with a new Glass-Steagall, were defeated. We compromised: Sen. Scott Brown was able to win a classic special-interest carve-out that allows banks to trade using private-equity and hedge funds, though they will be limited to investing no more than 3 percent of bank capital and own no more than 3 percent of the fund. But we won key safeguards protecting taxpayers from the danger of Sen. Brown’s carve-out: banks will have to hold in capital reserves every dollar that they invest in hedge funds and private equity funds. Additionally, banks cannot bail out their funds. Taking on Bank Risk: We won : The final bill ensures that firms don’t become too exposed to any single financial counterparty or to their own affiliates. Also, banks will have to hold capital in reserve that reflects all the off-balance sheet debt they could potentially be responsible for in the event of a crisis. We compromised: The final bill includes delayed implementation of rules to improve the quality of capital that banks have to hold and ensure that leverage and capital standards are higher in the future than they are today. We lost : The House would have required systemically-risky financial companies to hold at least $1 in capital for every $15 in debt. The conference turned that reasonable leverage ratio into a discretionary standard the Fed could impose only if the systemic risk council finds that the firm poses a grave threat to the economy. Providing an Alternative to Bailouts with Resolution Authority: We won: The bill expands the FDIC “resolution authority” – the authority to dismantle failing banks – so that the government can safely shut down not just depository banks, but shadow banks like AIG or the conglomerates that own banks (like Citigroup). This will be critical to containing the next financial company failure and providing an alternative to bailouts. To pay for costs associated with the entire bill, the conference originally included a risk-based assessment on large hedge funds and Wall Street banks, to be used in the event of liquidation or, after 25 years, to pay down the national debt. In other words – those that caused the mess will pay to clean it up. Republicans protested, the conference report was reopened, and fee was changed so costs associated with the bill would now be paid for by a combination of TARP funds and an increase in premiums big banks now pay the FDIC We lost : The House bill included a $150B fund paid for by the big banks that would protect taxpayers from the cost of shutting down a large, failed financial firm. Opponents of reform grabbed onto the liquidation fund as a talking point – claiming, nonsensically, that this industry-paid fund for shutting down firms was a “bailout fund”. We compromised: The fund was replaced by a line of credit from Treasury to be repaid by Wall Street in the future. Federal Reserve Governance Reform: Today, the powerful Federal Reserve is functionally controlled by its regulated banks, with banks choosing 2 out of every 3 regional Fed Bank directors. We won : The bill partially ends this conflict of interest by eliminating the ability of the bank representative directors to vote for the regional bank Presidents. We lost : The conference eliminated the most powerful provisions: barring member banks from voting for directors or bank officers serving as directors (“the Jamie Dimon rule”) and making the powerful NY Fed Bank President presidentially-elected. Federal Reserve Transparency / Audit: We won: The bill includes a one-time audit of all Federal Reserve 13(3) emergency lending during the ’07-’08 financial crisis, and ongoing GAO audit authority for future 13(3) and Fed discount window lending, as well as its open market transactions. The bill also ends the Fed’s open-ended bailout authority by limiting 13(3) lending to system-wide support for healthy companies, not propping up individual troubled firms, and requiring that taxpayers be paid back. We lost : However, the conference eliminated the House’s more comprehensive audit of the Federal Reserve. Derivatives Clearing Clearing requirements will ensure that trades are processed through third-party clearinghouses that guarantee payment in case of default and require parties to have cash to back their bets. We won : Despite tremendous pressure from special interest groups claiming they should be exempt from clearing requirements, it is estimated that the conference report will require around 90% of standard derivatives to clear. This means that once the bill is passed large banks, insurance companies, hedge funds and other financial institutions will be required to submit standardized swaps to clearinghouses and post margin to back their bets. The only exemptions from the clearing requirements are for commercial companies like airlines and home heating oil distributors and other small players in the derivatives market who are legitimately hedging risk. Derivatives Trading Currently, over-the-counter (‘OTC’) derivatives are considered private contracts. There is no way for regulators to analyze all the derivatives activity going on in the system and determine whether there is risk to the system. There is also no way for derivatives users to determine whether they are getting a fair price. We won: Derivatives will be traded on an open, regulated exchange or “swap executive facility” much like the New York Stock Exchange. Regulators will have the information they need to oversee risky activities and prevent fraud. Market participants will also be able to access a constant feed of real-time pricing data for standard derivatives that will allow them to shop around for the best deals on derivatives so they can manage price fluctuations in products they use in their day-to-day operations. Derivatives Enforcement: We won : Regulators have authority to take action if a clearing house refuses to accept a transaction that regulators have determined must clear. We compromised: The only limit on regulators’ authority is that they cannot force a clearinghouse to accept a swap for clearing if it would undermine the financial integrity of the clearinghouse or create systemic risk. Foreign Exchange Swaps We won : Foreign exchange swaps are required to clear and trade unless the Secretary of Treasury makes a determination that they should not. This determination must be based on a variety of factors including whether comparable regulation is in place and whether regulating these trades could result in systemic risk. In addition, if the Secretary of Treasury determines that clearing and trading are not required, he must report to Congress. All federal financial regulators will also be required to write rules to protect retail investors in this market. Cap on banks’ clearinghouse ownership We compromised : The SEC and CFTC have authority to set a hard cap on clearinghouse ownership so big banks can’t use their ownership interests to force standard swaps to be done in the unregulated markets that are more profitable for the biggest banks. We lost : Reformers wanted a set standard – big banks couldn’t control more than 20 percent of voting interests in a clearinghouse, period. We won: Regulators will have the authority to put rules in place that can prevent the conflict of interest that exists when the same people who profit from unregulated trades participate in the decision whether trades should be conducted in the less profitable regulated markets. This may include hard caps on banks’ ownership interest in a clearinghouse. Fiduciary duty for swaps dealers We lost: The Senate bill gave swaps dealers a fiduciary duty to pension funds and municipalities. The conference report weakens this duty, creating a loophole that says the fiduciary duty exists when the broker is acting as an adviser, but in comparable provisions under existing law that apply to securities broker-dealers, a broker-dealer is almost never deemed to be acting as an adviser. We won : The bill provides business conduct standards and disclosure requirements for swaps dealers when they do business with pension funds and municipalities. Swaps desk spin-off We won: The Senate-passed bill required taxpayer-backed institutions to spin off their swaps desks so no taxpayer money could be at risk, ever. That provision was weakened in conference to apply to only between 3 and 20 percent of swaps activity and to force the desks into a separately capitalized subsidiary. It does, however, include the riskiest activities including some of those most associated with the crisis – such as a credit-default swaps in which companies like AIG sold insurance on their bets to companies like Goldman Sachs without having to prove they had the money to pay if the bets went bad. We lost: The conference report provides that banks may continue to deal in swaps if they pertain to “permissible assets”, as defined in current banking law. Swaps based on permitted assets include swaps based on interest rates, currency, gold and silver. Insured institutions will also be permitted to trade cleared, investment grade CDS. That could leave 80 percent or more of the activity on swaps desks still under the auspices of taxpayer-backed institutions. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Independence: We won : The agency will be led by a director appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. It is housed in the Federal Reserve but not subservient to it. That is consistent with the original vision for the agency. We compromised: The bureau’s rules could be overridden by the new Financial Stability Oversight Council if the panel decided that they threatened the safety, soundness or stability of the U.S. financial system. Authority: We won: the bureau will write consumer-protection rules for banks and other firms that offer financial services or products. It will enforce those rules for banks and credit unions with more than $10 billion in assets. This includes, for example, the authority to require credit-card issuers like Citigroup to reduce interest rates and fees, or mortgage lenders to give clear information to borrowers. We lost : CFPB does not have examination or enforcement authority over smaller banks and financial institutions CFPB does not have blanket authority to step in if prudential regulators fail to do their jobs with regard to small banks and financial institutions. Funding for Bureau Reformers wanted to ensure the Bureau’s funding was not dependent on the appropriation process, which is unstable. We won: Upon request of the director the CFPB gets a percentage of the total operating expenses of the Federal Reserve System. The agency can also request up to $200 million more through the appropriations process. Specific financial products and practices Private student loans : These are some of the sketchiest financial products out there. These loans have typically been variable rates with no cap no deferment options, affordable payment plans, loan forgiveness programs or cancellation rights in the cases of death or disability that federal loans provide. We won : The CFPB will write rules that apply to all private student loans, including those made by Sallie Mae, by big banks and by career colleges that offer private loans. CFPB will enforce those rules for all private loans provided by all nonbanks and by banks with more than $10 billion in deposits. This enforcement power includes power over Sallie Mae, the nation’s largest provider of student loans. This was a major battle because as originally written, Sallie Mae could have been exempted because it actually makes the loans through a spin- off entity, Sallie Mae bank, which has smaller than $10 billion in deposits. We compromised: For small banks and credit unions, including Sallie Mae Bank, their current regulator will be responsible for enforcing the CFPB rules. We lost: The House bill required private student lenders to confirm with the school that the borrower is eligible to borrow the requested amount and has been notified of any untapped federal loan eligibility. This did not make it into the final package. Arbitration: Forced arbitration clauses are hidden in the fine print of consumer and investment contracts and strip the consumer and investor of the right to file claims against major Wall Street firms, instead funneling those claims in an unaccountable and biased private system. We won: The SEC and CFPB can ban forced arbitration within their respective jurisdictions. Forced arbitration in residential mortgages is banned outright. We compromised: The CFPB must study the issue first before instituting a ban Auto loans: Most car dealers make the bulk of their profit not from the sale of the cars but from financing – much of which is not advantageous to the buyer. Tricks and traps abound We lost: Amazingly, car dealers – the least trusted most complained about businesses in most states – managed to win an exemption from oversight by the CFPB We compromised: The Federal Trade Commission, which currently regulates car dealers, can now operate under a much quicker and simpler procedure for making rules related to auto financing Swipe fees Visa Inc. and MasterCard Inc., the world’s biggest payments networks, set interchange rates and pass that money to card- issuers including Bank of America and JPMorgan. Interchange is the largest component of the fees U.S. merchants pay to accept Visa and MasterCard debit cards. The fees totaled $19.7 billion and averaged 1.63 percent of each sale last year We won : The Federal Reserve will get authority to limit interchange, or “swipe” fees that merchants pay for each debit-card transaction. Retailers can refuse credit cards for purchases under $10 and offer discounts based on the form of payment. Merchants will be able to route debit-card transactions on more than one network, which will provide competition ina previously non-competitive market. We compromised: The bill exempt lenders with assets of less than $10 billion, or 99 percent of U.S. banks. Electronic benefits transfer (EBT) and other prepaid cards are also exempted Credit Rating Agencies Credit-ratings agencies had been held up historically as neutral arbiters of risk. That turned out to be far from the truth, as evidenced by the numerous mortgage-backed securities and other risky securities that states and municipalities in particular bought because they had been slapped with a AAA rating – meaning they were supposed to be virtually risk-free. The problem was that credit rating agencies made money by giving their customers the ratings they wanted. There was little or no accountability for the agencies because it was nearly impossible to sue them. Rules & Oversight We Won: For the first time, the SEC will have an Office of Credit Ratings to keep a watchful eye on the rating agencies’ critical role in our financial system. The Office will have the authority to write rules and levy fines. The SEC will have a new mandate to examine rating agency operations. Credit rating agencies will be required to disclose the data and methodologies used in their ratings, as well as ratings performance. The SEC will have the authority to deregister an agency for providing bad ratings over time. Raters must meet standards of training, experience, and competence, and be tested. The SEC shall issue rules to prevent sales and marketing considerations from influencing the production of ratings. Raters will have to take into consideration credible information that comes to their attention from a source other than the organizations being rated. Credit rating agencies are explicitly prohibited from advising an issuer and rating that issuer’s securities. The bill eliminates the credit rating agency exemption from the Fair Disclosure rule which provides that when an issuer shares important nonpublic information with certain parties, now including rating agencies, it must make public disclosure of that information. The bill replaces the term “furnish” with “file” in existing statute. Information that is “furnished” to the SEC is subject to a lower standard of accuracy and liability than information that is “filed” with the SEC. Conflict of Interest We won: The SEC will create a new mechanism to prevent issuers of asset-backed securities from picking the agency they think will give the highest rating. Unless a stronger mechanism is identified in the SEC study, an independent, investor-led board will assign rating agencies to provide initial ratings of asset-backed securities. We compromised: The SEC will be given two years to study the conflict of interest caused by securities issuers picking and paying their credit rating agencies before they begin assigning rating agencies. Liability We won: Investors will now be able to recover damages in private anti-fraud actions brought against rating agencies for gross negligence in the rating. Registered credit rating agencies will no longer be exempt from expert liability under the securities laws. The SEC originally exempted rating agencies from liability to encourage reliance on credit ratings in the registration of securities. Eliminating the exemption is consistent with the bill’s goal of reducing such reliance. The bill clarifies that ratings are not forward-looking statements entitled to special protections from liability. Universal Ratings We won: Raters must apply ratings consistently for corporate bonds, municipal bonds, and structured finance products and instruments, based on probability of default. Reliance on Ratings We compromised: All federal agencies will review their rules and regulations and eliminate all references to credit ratings. We support a reduction in the over-reliance on ratings, but a sufficient alternate standard of creditworthiness will need to be found for some federal rules. Rating Agency Governance We Won: At least half of a credit rating agency’s boards of directors must be made up of independent members with no financial stake in credit ratings. When a rating analyst switches jobs, the analyst’s ratings will be reviewed and the job change will be made public. Compliance officers isolated from the rating and sales business will be required to file reports on rating agencies’ adherence to rules. Post-Rating Surveillance We lost: The final bill did not include a requirement that credit rating agencies monitor and update ratings as market conditions change. However, the initial rating assignment mechanism will take into account long-term rating performance. Public Rating Utility We lost: Many reformers believed that the best way to solve the problems associated with credit ratings agencies was to create a public agency. This was never really given serious consideration in either the House or Senate. Other Consumer Protections and Assistance Note all the wins. Probably did best in this area: Abusive mortgage protection We won: Lenders cannot sell mortgages unless they determine that borrowers can afford to repay – even after teaser rates expire. Prepayment penalties that can trap borrowers in abusive loans are banned for adjustable rate, subprime, and other risky mortgages, and limited for all home loans. No more kickbacks for mortgage companies and brokers for steering customers into higher cost loans than they qualify for.. Limiting fees on all loans, and providing extra protections on high cost loans. Financial assistance for families and communities We won: A new $1 billion emergency loan fund to help families at risk of losing their homes because of unemployment or illness. Expands access to community-based financial planning services, giving more families guidance on building credit, identifying good loans and so on. Provides grants to help families connect to bank accounts and provides funding to Community Development Financial Institutions to create affordable alternatives to payday loans. Additional funds for communities to put foreclosed and abandoned homes back to use for families. More transparency for the HAMP program that we can use to push it to do a better job for households facing foreclosure. Data Enhancements We won: Data enhancements for HMDA (Home Mortgage Disclosure Act) which include information on loan terms and conditions & the age of borrowers. Data on small business lending that will help assess whether woman and minority-owned small business are receiving loans to start or expand their businesses. These data enhancements give us more of the tools we need to keep quality loans flowing to communities, and see and stop abusive practices. A default and foreclosure database that would be an early warning system enabling stakeholders to take action if the data shows a spike in foreclosures. A database of individual loan records in the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) program. This will increase the accountability of the industry for modifying distressed loans Wiring money We won: Creates new disclosures that will allow senders to know exactly how much of the money they transferred will actually get to loved ones in their home country rather than being siphoned off for fees. This information will let people compare prices and shop for the most economical service. Student loan reforms We won: Private student lending – till now badly under-regulated, and full of abusive practices – covered by CFPB rulemaking and enforcement authority. Creation of a private student loan ombudsman for the federal government, charged both with assisting borrowers and with analyzing complaints and making policy recommendations to Congress and the Administration to address them. Report on private student loans. Within two years of enactment, the CFPB is to issue a report on private student loans, including growth and changes in the market, the underwriting and terms of the loans, who is taking them out and why, and if students have taken out the maximum in federal loans first. That’s everything. I hope you found this useful.

Read the full article →

Chris Bowers: Why We Must Pass the Wall Street Reform Bill

July 1, 2010

Below this short blog post, you will find a very lengthy description of what victories were won in the Wall Street reform bill, what compromises were made, and what defeats were suffered. It is, on balance, an argument for why we should pass the Wall Street reform bill, and a roadmap of where the fight continues. Senator Russ Feingold is a personal hero of mine. Yesterday, he posted an editorial explaining why he is opposing this bill. I am not going to pick a fight with Senator Feingold over what he could have done, or should have done on the bill. While this is a rebuttal of sorts, mainly it is to let people know that there is a lot of good in this bill, and it is possible to present that information in an honest, self-aware manner that acknowledges where it falls short. There are a lot of victories in this bill. We need to pass those victories into law. If the bill is defeated by pro-Wall Street forces over the next two weeks, the only parts which will be defeated are the victories, while all of its shortcomings will remain in place. If it is defeated, the 1999 financial deregulation package will remain the basic framework under which our financial system operates, and we all know how that worked out. If it is defeated, no one will ever really take on the banks again, as even after a financial meltdown, even at the trough of their popularity, and even during wide Democratic control of Congress, their victory now would demonstrate their invincibility. The list below was prepared by numerous people associated with Americans for Financial Reform . It is a work in progress, but I hope you find it to be a useful resource. Pass the bill. *** What happened on Wall Street Reform? Battles won, lost and somewhere in between… Systemic risk regulation We won : Systemic risk monitoring : A new, council of regulators will both monitor system-wide risk and advise the Federal Reserve Board – the current primary systemic risk regulator. Oversight and limits : For the first time, there will be higher capital, leverage and liquidity standards on the biggest, riskiest financial firms, as well as bank-like oversight for large “shadow bank” financial companies like AIG and the mortgage financers that were at the center of the crisis. We lost: There remains an unnecessary loophole, inserted in the Senate at the last minute that unnecessarily allows any financial firm that is just 16 percent commercial to escape oversight from the systemic risk council, no matter the threat the firm could pose to the economy. “The Volcker Rule” The so-called “Volcker Rule” ensures that banks do not make risky “proprietary” bets for their own accounts with taxpayer-backed deposit funds and limits investment in private funds. We won : The Volcker rule was not in the House bill at all. In the Senate-passed version, regulators had wide authority to define proprietary trading. The conference report tightens the definition, narrows exemptions and makes the rule a law, not able to be undone by future regulators. It also includes language banning Goldman-style conflicts-of-interest wherein Wall Street firms package risky securities for customers and then bet that they will fail. We lost : Long before the conference, efforts to limit the size of banks, as in the Brown-Kaufman amendment, or fully separate Wall Street speculation from Main Street banks with a new Glass-Steagall, were defeated. We compromised: Sen. Scott Brown was able to win a classic special-interest carve-out that allows banks to trade using private-equity and hedge funds, though they will be limited to investing no more than 3 percent of bank capital and own no more than 3 percent of the fund. But we won key safeguards protecting taxpayers from the danger of Sen. Brown’s carve-out: banks will have to hold in capital reserves every dollar that they invest in hedge funds and private equity funds. Additionally, banks cannot bail out their funds. Taking on Bank Risk: We won : The final bill ensures that firms don’t become too exposed to any single financial counterparty or to their own affiliates. Also, banks will have to hold capital in reserve that reflects all the off-balance sheet debt they could potentially be responsible for in the event of a crisis. We compromised: The final bill includes delayed implementation of rules to improve the quality of capital that banks have to hold and ensure that leverage and capital standards are higher in the future than they are today. We lost : The House would have required systemically-risky financial companies to hold at least $1 in capital for every $15 in debt. The conference turned that reasonable leverage ratio into a discretionary standard the Fed could impose only if the systemic risk council finds that the firm poses a grave threat to the economy. Providing an Alternative to Bailouts with Resolution Authority: We won: The bill expands the FDIC “resolution authority” – the authority to dismantle failing banks – so that the government can safely shut down not just depository banks, but shadow banks like AIG or the conglomerates that own banks (like Citigroup). This will be critical to containing the next financial company failure and providing an alternative to bailouts. To pay for costs associated with the entire bill, the conference originally included a risk-based assessment on large hedge funds and Wall Street banks, to be used in the event of liquidation or, after 25 years, to pay down the national debt. In other words – those that caused the mess will pay to clean it up. Republicans protested, the conference report was reopened, and fee was changed so costs associated with the bill would now be paid for by a combination of TARP funds and an increase in premiums big banks now pay the FDIC We lost : The House bill included a $150B fund paid for by the big banks that would protect taxpayers from the cost of shutting down a large, failed financial firm. Opponents of reform grabbed onto the liquidation fund as a talking point – claiming, nonsensically, that this industry-paid fund for shutting down firms was a “bailout fund”. We compromised: The fund was replaced by a line of credit from Treasury to be repaid by Wall Street in the future. Federal Reserve Governance Reform: Today, the powerful Federal Reserve is functionally controlled by its regulated banks, with banks choosing 2 out of every 3 regional Fed Bank directors. We won : The bill partially ends this conflict of interest by eliminating the ability of the bank representative directors to vote for the regional bank Presidents. We lost : The conference eliminated the most powerful provisions: barring member banks from voting for directors or bank officers serving as directors (“the Jamie Dimon rule”) and making the powerful NY Fed Bank President presidentially-elected. Federal Reserve Transparency / Audit: We won: The bill includes a one-time audit of all Federal Reserve 13(3) emergency lending during the ’07-’08 financial crisis, and ongoing GAO audit authority for future 13(3) and Fed discount window lending, as well as its open market transactions. The bill also ends the Fed’s open-ended bailout authority by limiting 13(3) lending to system-wide support for healthy companies, not propping up individual troubled firms, and requiring that taxpayers be paid back. We lost : However, the conference eliminated the House’s more comprehensive audit of the Federal Reserve. Derivatives Clearing Clearing requirements will ensure that trades are processed through third-party clearinghouses that guarantee payment in case of default and require parties to have cash to back their bets. We won : Despite tremendous pressure from special interest groups claiming they should be exempt from clearing requirements, it is estimated that the conference report will require around 90% of standard derivatives to clear. This means that once the bill is passed large banks, insurance companies, hedge funds and other financial institutions will be required to submit standardized swaps to clearinghouses and post margin to back their bets. The only exemptions from the clearing requirements are for commercial companies like airlines and home heating oil distributors and other small players in the derivatives market who are legitimately hedging risk. Derivatives Trading Currently, over-the-counter (‘OTC’) derivatives are considered private contracts. There is no way for regulators to analyze all the derivatives activity going on in the system and determine whether there is risk to the system. There is also no way for derivatives users to determine whether they are getting a fair price. We won: Derivatives will be traded on an open, regulated exchange or “swap executive facility” much like the New York Stock Exchange. Regulators will have the information they need to oversee risky activities and prevent fraud. Market participants will also be able to access a constant feed of real-time pricing data for standard derivatives that will allow them to shop around for the best deals on derivatives so they can manage price fluctuations in products they use in their day-to-day operations. Derivatives Enforcement: We won : Regulators have authority to take action if a clearing house refuses to accept a transaction that regulators have determined must clear. We compromised: The only limit on regulators’ authority is that they cannot force a clearinghouse to accept a swap for clearing if it would undermine the financial integrity of the clearinghouse or create systemic risk. Foreign Exchange Swaps We won : Foreign exchange swaps are required to clear and trade unless the Secretary of Treasury makes a determination that they should not. This determination must be based on a variety of factors including whether comparable regulation is in place and whether regulating these trades could result in systemic risk. In addition, if the Secretary of Treasury determines that clearing and trading are not required, he must report to Congress. All federal financial regulators will also be required to write rules to protect retail investors in this market. Cap on banks’ clearinghouse ownership We compromised : The SEC and CFTC have authority to set a hard cap on clearinghouse ownership so big banks can’t use their ownership interests to force standard swaps to be done in the unregulated markets that are more profitable for the biggest banks. We lost : Reformers wanted a set standard – big banks couldn’t control more than 20 percent of voting interests in a clearinghouse, period. We won: Regulators will have the authority to put rules in place that can prevent the conflict of interest that exists when the same people who profit from unregulated trades participate in the decision whether trades should be conducted in the less profitable regulated markets. This may include hard caps on banks’ ownership interest in a clearinghouse. Fiduciary duty for swaps dealers We lost: The Senate bill gave swaps dealers a fiduciary duty to pension funds and municipalities. The conference report weakens this duty, creating a loophole that says the fiduciary duty exists when the broker is acting as an adviser, but in comparable provisions under existing law that apply to securities broker-dealers, a broker-dealer is almost never deemed to be acting as an adviser. We won : The bill provides business conduct standards and disclosure requirements for swaps dealers when they do business with pension funds and municipalities. Swaps desk spin-off We won: The Senate-passed bill required taxpayer-backed institutions to spin off their swaps desks so no taxpayer money could be at risk, ever. That provision was weakened in conference to apply to only between 3 and 20 percent of swaps activity and to force the desks into a separately capitalized subsidiary. It does, however, include the riskiest activities including some of those most associated with the crisis – such as a credit-default swaps in which companies like AIG sold insurance on their bets to companies like Goldman Sachs without having to prove they had the money to pay if the bets went bad. We lost: The conference report provides that banks may continue to deal in swaps if they pertain to “permissible assets”, as defined in current banking law. Swaps based on permitted assets include swaps based on interest rates, currency, gold and silver. Insured institutions will also be permitted to trade cleared, investment grade CDS. That could leave 80 percent or more of the activity on swaps desks still under the auspices of taxpayer-backed institutions. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Independence: We won : The agency will be led by a director appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. It is housed in the Federal Reserve but not subservient to it. That is consistent with the original vision for the agency. We compromised: The bureau’s rules could be overridden by the new Financial Stability Oversight Council if the panel decided that they threatened the safety, soundness or stability of the U.S. financial system. Authority: We won: the bureau will write consumer-protection rules for banks and other firms that offer financial services or products. It will enforce those rules for banks and credit unions with more than $10 billion in assets. This includes, for example, the authority to require credit-card issuers like Citigroup to reduce interest rates and fees, or mortgage lenders to give clear information to borrowers. We lost : CFPB does not have examination or enforcement authority over smaller banks and financial institutions CFPB does not have blanket authority to step in if prudential regulators fail to do their jobs with regard to small banks and financial institutions. Funding for Bureau Reformers wanted to ensure the Bureau’s funding was not dependent on the appropriation process, which is unstable. We won: Upon request of the director the CFPB gets a percentage of the total operating expenses of the Federal Reserve System. The agency can also request up to $200 million more through the appropriations process. Specific financial products and practices Private student loans : These are some of the sketchiest financial products out there. These loans have typically been variable rates with no cap no deferment options, affordable payment plans, loan forgiveness programs or cancellation rights in the cases of death or disability that federal loans provide. We won : The CFPB will write rules that apply to all private student loans, including those made by Sallie Mae, by big banks and by career colleges that offer private loans. CFPB will enforce those rules for all private loans provided by all nonbanks and by banks with more than $10 billion in deposits. This enforcement power includes power over Sallie Mae, the nation’s largest provider of student loans. This was a major battle because as originally written, Sallie Mae could have been exempted because it actually makes the loans through a spin- off entity, Sallie Mae bank, which has smaller than $10 billion in deposits. We compromised: For small banks and credit unions, including Sallie Mae Bank, their current regulator will be responsible for enforcing the CFPB rules. We lost: The House bill required private student lenders to confirm with the school that the borrower is eligible to borrow the requested amount and has been notified of any untapped federal loan eligibility. This did not make it into the final package. Arbitration: Forced arbitration clauses are hidden in the fine print of consumer and investment contracts and strip the consumer and investor of the right to file claims against major Wall Street firms, instead funneling those claims in an unaccountable and biased private system. We won: The SEC and CFPB can ban forced arbitration within their respective jurisdictions. Forced arbitration in residential mortgages is banned outright. We compromised: The CFPB must study the issue first before instituting a ban Auto loans: Most car dealers make the bulk of their profit not from the sale of the cars but from financing – much of which is not advantageous to the buyer. Tricks and traps abound We lost: Amazingly, car dealers – the least trusted most complained about businesses in most states – managed to win an exemption from oversight by the CFPB We compromised: The Federal Trade Commission, which currently regulates car dealers, can now operate under a much quicker and simpler procedure for making rules related to auto financing Swipe fees Visa Inc. and MasterCard Inc., the world’s biggest payments networks, set interchange rates and pass that money to card- issuers including Bank of America and JPMorgan. Interchange is the largest component of the fees U.S. merchants pay to accept Visa and MasterCard debit cards. The fees totaled $19.7 billion and averaged 1.63 percent of each sale last year We won : The Federal Reserve will get authority to limit interchange, or “swipe” fees that merchants pay for each debit-card transaction. Retailers can refuse credit cards for purchases under $10 and offer discounts based on the form of payment. Merchants will be able to route debit-card transactions on more than one network, which will provide competition ina previously non-competitive market. We compromised: The bill exempt lenders with assets of less than $10 billion, or 99 percent of U.S. banks. Electronic benefits transfer (EBT) and other prepaid cards are also exempted Credit Rating Agencies Credit-ratings agencies had been held up historically as neutral arbiters of risk. That turned out to be far from the truth, as evidenced by the numerous mortgage-backed securities and other risky securities that states and municipalities in particular bought because they had been slapped with a AAA rating – meaning they were supposed to be virtually risk-free. The problem was that credit rating agencies made money by giving their customers the ratings they wanted. There was little or no accountability for the agencies because it was nearly impossible to sue them. Rules & Oversight We Won: For the first time, the SEC will have an Office of Credit Ratings to keep a watchful eye on the rating agencies’ critical role in our financial system. The Office will have the authority to write rules and levy fines. The SEC will have a new mandate to examine rating agency operations. Credit rating agencies will be required to disclose the data and methodologies used in their ratings, as well as ratings performance. The SEC will have the authority to deregister an agency for providing bad ratings over time. Raters must meet standards of training, experience, and competence, and be tested. The SEC shall issue rules to prevent sales and marketing considerations from influencing the production of ratings. Raters will have to take into consideration credible information that comes to their attention from a source other than the organizations being rated. Credit rating agencies are explicitly prohibited from advising an issuer and rating that issuer’s securities. The bill eliminates the credit rating agency exemption from the Fair Disclosure rule which provides that when an issuer shares important nonpublic information with certain parties, now including rating agencies, it must make public disclosure of that information. The bill replaces the term “furnish” with “file” in existing statute. Information that is “furnished” to the SEC is subject to a lower standard of accuracy and liability than information that is “filed” with the SEC. Conflict of Interest We won: The SEC will create a new mechanism to prevent issuers of asset-backed securities from picking the agency they think will give the highest rating. Unless a stronger mechanism is identified in the SEC study, an independent, investor-led board will assign rating agencies to provide initial ratings of asset-backed securities. We compromised: The SEC will be given two years to study the conflict of interest caused by securities issuers picking and paying their credit rating agencies before they begin assigning rating agencies. Liability We won: Investors will now be able to recover damages in private anti-fraud actions brought against rating agencies for gross negligence in the rating. Registered credit rating agencies will no longer be exempt from expert liability under the securities laws. The SEC originally exempted rating agencies from liability to encourage reliance on credit ratings in the registration of securities. Eliminating the exemption is consistent with the bill’s goal of reducing such reliance. The bill clarifies that ratings are not forward-looking statements entitled to special protections from liability. Universal Ratings We won: Raters must apply ratings consistently for corporate bonds, municipal bonds, and structured finance products and instruments, based on probability of default. Reliance on Ratings We compromised: All federal agencies will review their rules and regulations and eliminate all references to credit ratings. We support a reduction in the over-reliance on ratings, but a sufficient alternate standard of creditworthiness will need to be found for some federal rules. Rating Agency Governance We Won: At least half of a credit rating agency’s boards of directors must be made up of independent members with no financial stake in credit ratings. When a rating analyst switches jobs, the analyst’s ratings will be reviewed and the job change will be made public. Compliance officers isolated from the rating and sales business will be required to file reports on rating agencies’ adherence to rules. Post-Rating Surveillance We lost: The final bill did not include a requirement that credit rating agencies monitor and update ratings as market conditions change. However, the initial rating assignment mechanism will take into account long-term rating performance. Public Rating Utility We lost: Many reformers believed that the best way to solve the problems associated with credit ratings agencies was to create a public agency. This was never really given serious consideration in either the House or Senate. Other Consumer Protections and Assistance Note all the wins. Probably did best in this area: Abusive mortgage protection We won: Lenders cannot sell mortgages unless they determine that borrowers can afford to repay – even after teaser rates expire. Prepayment penalties that can trap borrowers in abusive loans are banned for adjustable rate, subprime, and other risky mortgages, and limited for all home loans. No more kickbacks for mortgage companies and brokers for steering customers into higher cost loans than they qualify for.. Limiting fees on all loans, and providing extra protections on high cost loans. Financial assistance for families and communities We won: A new $1 billion emergency loan fund to help families at risk of losing their homes because of unemployment or illness. Expands access to community-based financial planning services, giving more families guidance on building credit, identifying good loans and so on. Provides grants to help families connect to bank accounts and provides funding to Community Development Financial Institutions to create affordable alternatives to payday loans. Additional funds for communities to put foreclosed and abandoned homes back to use for families. More transparency for the HAMP program that we can use to push it to do a better job for households facing foreclosure. Data Enhancements We won: Data enhancements for HMDA (Home Mortgage Disclosure Act) which include information on loan terms and conditions & the age of borrowers. Data on small business lending that will help assess whether woman and minority-owned small business are receiving loans to start or expand their businesses. These data enhancements give us more of the tools we need to keep quality loans flowing to communities, and see and stop abusive practices. A default and foreclosure database that would be an early warning system enabling stakeholders to take action if the data shows a spike in foreclosures. A database of individual loan records in the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) program. This will increase the accountability of the industry for modifying distressed loans Wiring money We won: Creates new disclosures that will allow senders to know exactly how much of the money they transferred will actually get to loved ones in their home country rather than being siphoned off for fees. This information will let people compare prices and shop for the most economical service. Student loan reforms We won: Private student lending – till now badly under-regulated, and full of abusive practices – covered by CFPB rulemaking and enforcement authority. Creation of a private student loan ombudsman for the federal government, charged both with assisting borrowers and with analyzing complaints and making policy recommendations to Congress and the Administration to address them. Report on private student loans. Within two years of enactment, the CFPB is to issue a report on private student loans, including growth and changes in the market, the underwriting and terms of the loans, who is taking them out and why, and if students have taken out the maximum in federal loans first. That’s everything. I hope you found this useful.

Read the full article →

Financial Crisis Commission Turns Up Heat On Goldman Sachs: ‘Nobody Here Believes You’

July 1, 2010

The panel created to investigate the roots of the financial crisis escalated the government’s assault on Goldman Sachs on Thursday, criticizing the Wall Street firm for failing to turn over basic documents and accusing it nearly lying under oath. For a second consecutive day, the bipartisan Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission reiterated its request for additional data from Goldman, namely figures regarding the firm’s derivatives activities. And for a second consecutive day, Goldman’s top executives demurred. “We generally do not have a derivatives business,” David Viniar, Goldman’s chief financial officer, told the panel Thursday under oath. Goldman Sachs holds more than $49 trillion in notional derivatives contracts, making it the third-largest derivatives dealer among U.S. banks, according to first quarter figures from national bank regulator the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The commission has found that Goldman is a party to more than 1 million different derivatives contracts, Commissioner Brooksley Born disclosed Thursday. “We don’t separate out derivatives and cash businesses,” Viniar clarified under questioning. The derivatives units are “integrated” into the firm’s cash businesses, making it difficult for the firm to isolate its derivatives data, he said. In January, the panel asked Goldman chairman and chief executive Lloyd C. Blankfein for a breakdown of the firm’s revenues and profits from its derivatives activities. He said the firm would comply. The commission reiterated that request Wednesday and Thursday. Viniar said the firm doesn’t “keep” records outlining its revenues from its derivatives dealing. “I am very skeptical that you can’t measure these revenues and profits,” Born told Viniar. “I urge you to provide us with this information. It’s been about six months we’ve been asking for it… and it makes one wonder also why Goldman has the incentive or impetus not to reveal this information. “You’re suggesting you don’t give it to your regulators. You don’t put it in your financial reports… so you don’t give it to the market… [or to your counterparties],” Born continued. “And you’re refusing to give it to us. I hope very much that we will see this very shortly.” Viniar took exception to that last comment. “Commissioner, again, we’re not refusing anything,” Goldman’s chief financial officer said. “We don’t have a separate derivatives business.” Viniar then said that Goldman isn’t alone in not breaking out its derivatives-specific revenues and profits. Born quickly shot back. “They don’t,” Born, the nation’s former top derivatives regulator, conceded. “But some other firms have provided us with that data when we’ve asked for it, and Goldman Sachs hasn’t.” Phil Angelides, the panel’s chairman, could barely contain his incredulousness. “Are you telling me you have no system at your company that tracks revenues or assets of contracts, and liabilities and payments under contracts?” Angelides asked. “You have no management reports, no financial reports that track these contracts?” “I’ve never seen one,” Viniar responded. Pressed further, Viniar added that the firm doesn’t track these things because it’s “not meaningful.” Viniar again was asked to provide the data. Later on, Byron Georgiou, another commissioner, reiterated the panel’s request for information pertaining to Goldman’s contracts with AIG. Goldman “aggressively” demanded increasing amounts of collateral from the insurer beginning in 2007 to cover what it perceived as the deteriorating value of those contracts’ underlying securities, Angelides said. Goldman may have marked those securities at a lower value than what it marked comparable securities for its own clients. In other words, it may have undervalued securities from AIG in order to get more cash while overvaluing them when dealing with other counterparties in order to hold on to its own cash. The panel has asked for that data. Goldman has not handed it over. “When you tell us that you don’t know how much you make in your derivatives business, nobody here really believes it,” Georgiou said. “It’s crazy. It doesn’t make any sense. Goldman Sachs is, if not the most sophisticated investment bank, certainly one of the most sophisticated investment banks in the world — and nobody here believes you don’t know how much money you’re making on various aspects of your business. It doesn’t make any sense.” Georgiou then asked for a specific breakdown of what Goldman paid AIG to insure specific securities, and what Goldman charged its own clients for the same protection. That insurance came in the form of credit default swaps, which are derivative contracts that act like insurance against default. Georgiou wants to know the premium, if any, Goldman received. It’s not the first time the panel has asked for this information. Viniar said he’d provide the data.

Read the full article →

Lloyd Chapman: Analysis of Latest Obama Administration Small Business Contracting Data Released

June 28, 2010

The American Small Business League (ASBL) has released the first analysis of the government’s fiscal year (FY) 2009 small business contracting data. http://www.asbl.com/documents/ASBL_2009_dataanalysis.pdf The ASBL conducted a review of the top 100 recipients of federal small business contracts for FY 2009. Within its sample, the ASBL identified 61 large firms, which received 64.5 percent of the total dollars the government claimed to have awarded to small businesses. The ASBL also identified a series of Fortune 500 corporations and other large firms in the government’s 2009 contracting data. Recipients of small business contracts included: Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon, L-3 Communications, British Aerospace (BAE), Northrop Grumman, General Electric, Booz Allen Hamilton, Thales Communications, General Dynamics, and Dell Computer. In addition to large corporations in the government’s 2009 small business contracting numbers, the ASBL also uncovered gross discrepancies in the volume of contracts awarded to some companies. In a sampling of the data, the ASBL uncovered several examples in which the volume of contracts awarded to legitimate small businesses was dramatically inflated. This appears to be an intentional attempt by the government to misrepresent the actual volume of contracts awarded to small businesses. Another technique the ASBL has uncovered is the exclusion of billions of dollars in large prime contracts from the government’s small business calculations, which further inflates the percentage of federal contracts the government claims to have awarded to legitimate small businesses. The ASBL recommends the Obama Administration take the following steps to increase the volume of federal contracts awarded to small businesses: • Issue an executive order to stop the government from reporting awards to publicly traded companies as small business awards. • Abolish the Comprehensive Subcontracting Plan Test Program, which currently allows prime contractors to avoid any reporting or penalties for non-compliance of small business subcontracting goals. • Implement the 5 percent set-aside goal for women-owned firms for all industries. FY 2009 marks the tenth consecutive year that the government has diverted federal small business contracts to corporate giants. The SBA has gone from telling us that the diversion of federal small business contracts was a ‘myth’ to telling us that it’s the result of ‘simple human error.’ It is time for President Obama to honor his campaign promise, when he said, ‘It is time to end the diversion of federal small business contracts to corporate giants.’ ( http://www.barackobama.com/2008/02/26/the_american_small_business_le.php )

Read the full article →

Five Times As Many Homeowners Bounced From Obama Plan To Slow Foreclosures As Granted New Relief

June 21, 2010

More than five times as many homeowners were kicked out of the Obama administration’s primary foreclosure-prevention program last month than were granted new relief, new data released Monday show. Nearly 155,000 homeowners were bounced from the administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program in May versus about 30,000 who were offered new temporary trial plans of lower monthly payments. About 48,000 more homeowners were granted five-year plans of lower payments compared to April, with an undisclosed amount offered five-year plans that have yet to complete the paperwork. All told, last month about twice as many homeowners were bounced from a program that promised to help struggling families hurt by the firms at the heart of the worst financial crisis and subsequent economic downturn since the Great Depression. Those firms received hundreds of billions of dollars in taxpayer cash and guarantees. Meanwhile, 16 months after President Barack Obama told a crowd in Mesa, Ariz. of his plan to “help between seven and nine million families restructure or refinance their mortgages so they can afford — avoid foreclosure,” nearly 436,000 homeowners have been kicked kicked out of the centerpiece of the administration’s $75 billion plan to help distressed borrowers, while only about 340,000 homeowners have received permanent relief. Yet on a conference call with reporters and in news releases, top administration officials from the Treasury Department and the Department of Housing and Urban Development sounded an upbeat note. “There’s no question that today’s housing market is in significantly better shape than anyone predicted 18 months ago,” HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan told reporters before reminding them of the dire forecasts and statistics that dominated headlines when the new administration took office. “Seventeen months after President Obama took office, our housing market is stabilizing and our economy has created jobs for five straight months for the same reason: Because we did act. Because this administration immediately upon taking office took swift and comprehensive action,” Donovan said. After seven months of increases in newly-initiated five-year modification plans, the pace slipped 30 percent in May to an increase of 47,724. It’s the lowest monthly increase since December, Treasury data show. The pace of new trial modifications, which were designed to be three-month plans that would lead to a five-year, permanent reduction in monthly payments, continued its monthly slide: just over 30,000 new homeowners joined the program in May, a 19 percent drop from the previous month and a 67 percent decline from January. The number of new entrants has declined for the past five months. Over the same period, the number of new canceled modifications skyrocketed by 154,626, or 55 percent. “It would a national tragedy and shame if the hundreds of thousands of families that entered HAMP with the hope of a permanent modification now face foreclosure once more,” said Richard H. Neiman, New York’s top bank regulator and a member of the Congressional Oversight Panel, a bailout watchdog. “In many cases we are talking about people who made month after month of payments and may now be being pushed out of HAMP due to document disputes with their mortgage servicer.” Treasury allocated $50 billion for its plan to help struggling homeowners, with an additional $25 billion to assist government-controlled housing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in its efforts as part of the administration’s overall foreclosure-prevention plan, called Making Home Affordable. By comparison, the nation’s four biggest banks by assets received a combined $140 billion alone in taxpayer cash as part of a larger bailout of Wall Street. While the pace of five-year and trial mods declined 30 percent and 19 percent, respectively, in May, the pace of newly-canceled mods jumped 25 percent, Treasury data show. The pace of canceled mods has been slowing over the past three months, however. Administration officials pointed out that nearly half, or 49 percent, of homeowners bounced during the trial modification phase through April were placed in alternative modification plans, according to Treasury data based on statistics from the eight largest mortgage servicers in HAMP. Just over 9 percent either lost or are in process of losing their homes through foreclosures and short sales/deeds-in-lieu, the data show. Treasury figures, however, don’t show whether those homeowners are in sustainable modification plans, defined as those that ultimately avoid foreclosure through affordable monthly payments. “Although the report indicates that 50 percent of the families who are losing their HAMP modificiation will receive non-HAMP alternatives, the true test is in the details of these alternatives and seeing that families are truly ending up better off, and not worse,” Neiman said. Donovan and two other Treasury officials, meanwhile, tried to focus reporters on the median decline in monthly mortgage payments experienced by the 340,459 borrowers in five-year plans ($514.31, or a 36 percent decrease compared to pre-mod payments); the fact that housing prices have leveled off, and are starting to tick up; that more than six million homeowners have refinanced their mortgages thanks to historically-low interest rates, and more than 2.5 million families have purchased a home using the temporary homebuyer tax credit; that the pace of new foreclosures is slowing; and that Americans’ equity in their homes has risen by more than $1 trillion since the first quarter of 2009. Combined, this shows that the housing market has stabilized, and that more homeowners are being helped than hurt by the administration’s efforts, officials stressed during the call, citing data from another, more detailed report . But HAMP was touted as a program that “will enable as many as 3 to 4 million homeowners to modify the terms of their mortgages to avoid foreclosure,” as Obama put it Feb. 18, 2009. Housing experts are increasingly doubting the program’s eventual success. “It’s sorta hard to tell if any of this ‘makes sense’ without a boatload more data on how the loans have been performing during the trial period (and in subsequent mod programs),” wrote Thomas A. Lawler, a former top official at Fannie Mae now a consultant on housing and mortgage matters, in a note to clients. “Cynics could easily feel that the whole ‘process’ is starting to feel like a ‘kick the can down the road’ program, where if one ‘step’ doesn’t work one just adds another designed solely to keep the number of foreclosures down, even if the borrower’s case is ‘hopeless.’” Yet while the administration tries to stem the tide of foreclosures — especially in time for November’s Congressional elections — the biggest mortgage servicers aren’t making it easy. Citigroup, for instance, has placed 34,675 homeowners in five-year plans through HAMP, Treasury data through May show. But the bank, the nation’s third-largest by assets, kicked out 60,607 borrowers from trial plans through April. That number likely rose in May. Wells Fargo, the nation’s fourth-largest bank by assets, put 40,759 of its borrowers in five-year HAMP plans, data through May show. However, the bank kicked 59,910 homeowners out of trial plans through April, according to Treasury. The number of homeowners bounced from the program also likely rose in May. Put another way, the number of homeowners Citigroup and Wells Fargo have tossed from HAMP trial plans is 60 percent greater than the total number of homeowners they’ve granted permanent relief. “This scorecard isn’t only about sharing the good news about our housing recovery, but also the areas where we still need to see improvement,” Donovan said.

Read the full article →

U.S. Economy’s Expansion Creates Little Job Growth as Inflation Controlled

June 17, 2010

By Shobhana Chandra and Courtney Schlisserman June 17 (Bloomberg) — The world’s largest economy will keep expanding in the second half of the year without stoking inflation or generating many jobs, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s low-rate policy, reports today showed. The index of leading indicators, a gauge of the outlook for growth over the next three to six months, climbed 0.4 percent in May, according to data from the New York-based Conference Board. Other figures showed the cost of living dropped, claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly increased to the highest level in a month and manufacturing in the Philadelphia Fed region cooled. “The recovery is intact,” said Ellen Zentner , a senior U.S. macroeconomist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, who correctly forecast the gain in the leading index. “With price data like we saw today, the Fed is absolutely able to stand pat through this year without any qualms about inflation. The labor market is still in a precarious position.” Stocks dropped, halting a global rally, as the reports raised concern the European debt crisis may prompt American companies to rein in hiring. The drop in commodity prices brought on by the turmoil and price cuts by retailers including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. highlight the Fed’s forecast for “subdued” inflation. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.1 percent to 1,113.53 at 2:13 p.m. in New York. Treasury securities jumped, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year note down to 3.19 percent from 3.26 percent late yesterday. More Claims Initial jobless claims increased by 12,000 to 472,000 in the week ended June 12, Labor Department figures showed. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected the number of applications would drop to 450,000, according to the median forecast. The figures indicated firings are staying elevated even as the economy grows. Some companies are trimming payrolls to boost or maintain profits at the same time overall employment has grown each month this year. “The labor market is not improving,” said Steven Ricchiuto , chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York. “If you really are going to have a sustainable recovery, you need the labor market to improve.” Manufacturing in the region covered by the Philadelphia Fed expanded in June at the slowest pace since August as a measure of factory employment contracted for the first time in seven months, the branch of the central bank reported today. Philadelphia Manufacturing Its general economic index , where readings greater than zero signal growth, dropped to 8 from 21.4 in May. The regional gauge covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware. Economists forecast the measure would fall to 20, according to the median projection. Manufacturing, which led the economy out of the worst recession since the 1930s, is easing into a more sustainable pace of growth as the need to replenish inventories becomes less pressing. The figures stand in contrast to a report this week showing New York factories expanded at a faster rate. Other data from the Labor Department showed consumer prices dropped 0.2 percent in May, a second consecutive decrease and the biggest since December 2008. Excluding food and fuel, the so-called core rate increased 0.1 percent. The figures matched the median forecasts of economists surveyed. Last month’s fall was led by a decrease in energy costs propelled by concern that efforts to rein in government debt in Europe will slow global growth. Gasoline prices declined 5.2 percent, the biggest drop since December 2008. Inflation Cools In the 12 months ended in May, consumer prices rose 2 percent following a 2.2 percent year-over-year gain the prior month. The core rate rose 0.9 percent from May 2009, matching the smallest year-over-year gain since 1966. Fed forecasters lowered their outlook for inflation, according to minutes of their April meeting. Officials “anticipated that inflation would remain subdued over the next several years,” the minutes released May 19 said. The deceleration in inflation prompted economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York today to push their forecast for a rate increase by the central bank to the fourth quarter of 2011 from the second quarter of that year. “The disinflation we have witnessed could be with us for some time,” Michael Feroli , JPMorgan’s chief U.S. economist, said in a note to clients, citing the smaller price gains in services and the lack of wage pressure. Shopping for Discounts Some lower-income customers in the U.S. are “still deeply in the recession” and are shopping various retailers for the cheapest prices, Jamie Sohosky, senior director of marketing for Wal-Mart’s U.S. stores, said this month. Shoppers at Wal-Mart, the world’s largest retailer, are also using more coupons than a year ago, Sohosky said. They’re worried about losing their jobs and paying mortgages, she said. The breadth of gains within the components of the index of leading indicators means there is little risk the rebound from the recession will be derailed by the European debt crisis. Five of the 10 indicators contributed to May’s increase, led by the spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note and the Fed’s target rate for short-term loans between banks. An increase in the money supply and a longer factory workweek also added. Five of the components declined, including slumps in stock prices and building permits . “The European crisis is having an extremely mild impact,” said Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ’s Zentner. “While there are some signs it’s affecting business sentiment, the effect is very limited at this time.” To contact the reporters on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net ; Courtney Schlisserman in Washington at cschlisserma@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Stocks in U.S. Retreat as Treasuries, Dollar Gain on Housing Starts Report

June 16, 2010

By Nick Baker June 16 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks fell, Treasuries gained and the dollar strengthened against the euro after reports showed American housing starts declined the most in 14 months and FedEx Corp.’s profit forecast trailed estimates. Oil rose to a six-week high. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.1 percent to 1,114.61 at 4 p.m. in New York as about three stocks slumped for every two that rallied on U.S. exchanges. The measure had fallen as much as 0.7 percent earlier. Yields on 10-year Treasuries lost 4 basis points to 3.26 percent. The U.S. currency climbed 0.2 percent to $1.2312. Crude oil futures rose 0.9 percent to $77.67 a barrel. Retailers, manufacturers, transportation companies and commodity producers dropped in U.S. stock trading as FedEx’s full-year profit outlook and the biggest drop in housing starts since March 2009 overshadowed better-than-estimated growth in industrial production. BP Plc’s 1.4 percent gain in New York equity trading following an agreement to pay $20 billion to victims of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill wasn’t enough to turn the S&P 500 around. “The recovery is not accelerating, it’s decelerating, and there’s reasons for investors to take a step back and evaluate,” said David Kovacs , head of quantitative strategies at Turner Investment Partners in Berwyn, Pennsylvania, which manages $19 billion. FedEx “is a barometer of economic activity, and the fact that they missed relative to estimates indicates there are some clouds on the horizon.” ‘Moderate’ Recovery FedEx, the world’s largest air-cargo carrier, declined 6 percent in U.S. stock trading for the biggest drop since December. The company forecast annual profit that trailed the average analyst estimate as labor costs climb in a “moderate” economic recovery. Indexes of consumer stocks in the S&P 500 lost more than 0.5 percent. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage firms 80 percent owned by U.S. taxpayers, plunged after regulators told them to delist their common and preferred shares from the New York Stock Exchange. Fannie Mae dropped 39 percent and Freddie Mac slumped 38 percent. Speculation that BP would put the $20 billion into an escrow account helped its shares as well as the S&P 500 recover from losses. BP maintained gains even after canceling its $10- billion-a-year dividend for the first three quarters of 2010. Credit investors are pricing in a 36 percent chance BP Plc will default within five years as it tangles with the Obama administration over cleanup costs and claims for the biggest oil spill in U.S. history. BP Swaps The default risk implied by credit-default swaps is up from 7 percent a month ago, according to CMA DataVision prices using a standard model used to value the derivatives. BP swaps climbed 70.5 basis points to 576.5. BP debt due next year traded today at distressed levels, with investors demanding as much as 1,251 basis points in yield more than Treasuries. Oil rose to a six-week high after gasoline surged on a report that U.S. refineries cut operating rates and supplies of the motor fuel fell. Refineries operated at 87.9 percent of capacity, down 1.2 percentage points from the week before. Gasoline supplies fell 636,000 barrels to 218.3 million, the Energy Department said. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News were split over whether stockpiles of the fuel would rise or fall. Three erroneous orders in Washington Post Co. shares briefly caused the stock to double, making it the first U.S. company to be halted by circuit breakers imposed following the May 6 crash that erased $862 billion from equities in 20 minutes. Canceled Trades The trades totaling 766 shares at $919.18 or $929.18 crossed on NYSE Euronext’s NYSE Arca electronic platform, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compared with a price of $462.84 before the jump. The transactions were later canceled, the data show. The Securities and Exchange Commission trading curbs started going into effect on June 11. The program, which is being tested through December, pauses Standard & Poor’s 500 Index stocks for five minutes when they rise or fall 10 percent in five minutes or less. Washington Post jumped 103 percent to $929.18 before the halt, then traded at $458.19 as of 4 p.m. in New York after the trading ban stopped. To contact the reporter on this story: Nick Baker in New York at nbaker7@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Laura Day: The Business of Intuition

June 14, 2010

Today’s market requires that you use all of our skills to compete. It is an exciting challenge and one that creates a need to discover parts of yourself that in easier times, you overlooked. In the long run, this will allow you to enrich all areas of your life. Intuition and the acquisition of wealth have a lot in common. There are many ways to arrive at each, and every individual has their own unique gift in doing so. In fact, it is the homogenization of the path that often impedes an effective strategy. As with intuition, the acquisition of wealth is mystified, when in fact, it’s based on realistic evaluation, data, self knowledge (whether yours or your company), adaptability and foresight. Both adaptability and foresight are the gifts of intuition. Where the budget dollar is spent on market research, it might be better spent on using the human resources you already have to acquire an accurate evaluation of your product or skills and a precognitive sense of the market in the future. This is especially valuable in your international market where the tools to evaluate a given “value” have not proven especially accurate. When you don’t have time for research or even an educated guess, intuition — that flash of accurate knowing — is your most reliable resource, especially if you train it. Usually, your intuition functions in emergencies, it’s the right decision you made in a split second, with little or no information that saved you. However, you don’t need to wait for an emergency to use it. In fact, the appropriate use of intuition will make you proactive enough that problems are solved before they occur. Scientific experiments demonstrating the ability of the human mind to both send and perceive information at a distance date back over fifty years, yet intuition has been cloistered in the realm of mysticism and scientific institutions. Where it really belongs is in the day-to-day structure of our life and its various endeavors. In How to Rule the World from Your Couch , I train your brain to get accurate, appropriate, actionable information in an efficient way, a way you have used inefficiently in the past. Intuition is not a strange skill acquired due to a vegetarian diet or a near-death experience. Intuition is the first capacity our brain had as babies and small children to survive in the absence of experience or reason. It can be redirected very easily to both gather and send information that will give you the edge in any market as well as helping you to find the niche where you and your company organically excel. How to Use Your Intuition to Create a Future “Market Map” Know your goals. Question your goals. People have a tendency to get stuck in a personal or corporate identity that calcifies and becomes vulnerable to market changes. If you cultivate a willingness to adapt and reinvent yourself, you will thrive. That said, if you don’t know your target it’s hard to hit it. So, know your goals. Forget out-of-the-box thinking and brainstorming. The reference point for each of these activities is something isn’t working. Throw away the box and allow perception to wander and document where your attention goes without editing. Odd as this may seem, write down a question, such as “how will our market change in the next year?” Ask your entire company (or all your friends) to write one page that will take place over a twelve month period. Tell them not to worry about the story or the writing, but to allow their attention to wander anywhere without editing anything. DO NOT TELL THEM THE QUESTION! Simply tell them you have an idea and this will help you fill in the blanks. Ask them to do it with a timeline. It sounds strange and uncomfortable at first, and it is. But, what you yield will amaze you when you apply it to the question you wrote and use a bit of interpretation to apply the data. Once you have your intuitive data, look at the other information you have available and come up with a plan. Nothing is the entire answer. Laura Day is the New York Times best selling author of PRACTICAL INTUITION and HOW TO RULE THE WORLD FROM YOUR COUCH. Newsweek named her the “$10,000-a-month psychic” and The Independent called her “The Psychic of Wall Street”. Laura has been featured on Oprah, CNN, Good Morning America, ABC News and other national and international media. Laura teaches mainstream professions how to integrate intuition into their process to create greater success. Laura teaches and lectures all over the world. HOW TO RULE THE WORLD FROM YOUR COUCH is her textbook on using intuition effectively. www.howtoruletheworldfromyourcouch.com

Read the full article →

Laura Day: The Business of Intuition

June 14, 2010

Today’s market requires that you use all of our skills to compete. It is an exciting challenge and one that creates a need to discover parts of yourself that in easier times, you overlooked. In the long run, this will allow you to enrich all areas of your life. Intuition and the acquisition of wealth have a lot in common. There are many ways to arrive at each, and every individual has their own unique gift in doing so. In fact, it is the homogenization of the path that often impedes an effective strategy. As with intuition, the acquisition of wealth is mystified, when in fact, it’s based on realistic evaluation, data, self knowledge (whether yours or your company), adaptability and foresight. Both adaptability and foresight are the gifts of intuition. Where the budget dollar is spent on market research, it might be better spent on using the human resources you already have to acquire an accurate evaluation of your product or skills and a precognitive sense of the market in the future. This is especially valuable in your international market where the tools to evaluate a given “value” have not proven especially accurate. When you don’t have time for research or even an educated guess, intuition — that flash of accurate knowing — is your most reliable resource, especially if you train it. Usually, your intuition functions in emergencies, it’s the right decision you made in a split second, with little or no information that saved you. However, you don’t need to wait for an emergency to use it. In fact, the appropriate use of intuition will make you proactive enough that problems are solved before they occur. Scientific experiments demonstrating the ability of the human mind to both send and perceive information at a distance date back over fifty years, yet intuition has been cloistered in the realm of mysticism and scientific institutions. Where it really belongs is in the day-to-day structure of our life and its various endeavors. In How to Rule the World from Your Couch , I train your brain to get accurate, appropriate, actionable information in an efficient way, a way you have used inefficiently in the past. Intuition is not a strange skill acquired due to a vegetarian diet or a near-death experience. Intuition is the first capacity our brain had as babies and small children to survive in the absence of experience or reason. It can be redirected very easily to both gather and send information that will give you the edge in any market as well as helping you to find the niche where you and your company organically excel. How to Use Your Intuition to Create a Future “Market Map” Know your goals. Question your goals. People have a tendency to get stuck in a personal or corporate identity that calcifies and becomes vulnerable to market changes. If you cultivate a willingness to adapt and reinvent yourself, you will thrive. That said, if you don’t know your target it’s hard to hit it. So, know your goals. Forget out-of-the-box thinking and brainstorming. The reference point for each of these activities is something isn’t working. Throw away the box and allow perception to wander and document where your attention goes without editing. Odd as this may seem, write down a question, such as “how will our market change in the next year?” Ask your entire company (or all your friends) to write one page that will take place over a twelve month period. Tell them not to worry about the story or the writing, but to allow their attention to wander anywhere without editing anything. DO NOT TELL THEM THE QUESTION! Simply tell them you have an idea and this will help you fill in the blanks. Ask them to do it with a timeline. It sounds strange and uncomfortable at first, and it is. But, what you yield will amaze you when you apply it to the question you wrote and use a bit of interpretation to apply the data. Once you have your intuitive data, look at the other information you have available and come up with a plan. Nothing is the entire answer. Laura Day is the New York Times best selling author of PRACTICAL INTUITION and HOW TO RULE THE WORLD FROM YOUR COUCH. Newsweek named her the “$10,000-a-month psychic” and The Independent called her “The Psychic of Wall Street”. Laura has been featured on Oprah, CNN, Good Morning America, ABC News and other national and international media. Laura teaches mainstream professions how to integrate intuition into their process to create greater success. Laura teaches and lectures all over the world. HOW TO RULE THE WORLD FROM YOUR COUCH is her textbook on using intuition effectively. www.howtoruletheworldfromyourcouch.com

Read the full article →

Production Probably Rose, Prices Fell as U.S. Recovers Without Inflation

June 12, 2010

By Timothy R. Homan June 13 (Bloomberg) — Factories kept churning out more goods last month, while prices and home construction fell, pointing to a manufacturing-led U.S. recovery that is not generating inflation, economists said before reports this week. Production at factories, mines and utilities increased 0.8 percent in May, the 10th gain in the past 11 months, according to the median estimate of 63 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of Federal Reserve figures due June 16. The cost of living declined for a second month and work began on fewer houses, other data may show. “It’s really a sweet spot in terms of continuing growth without inflation,” said Brian Bethune , chief U.S. financial economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “Manufacturing is still in pretty good shape.” The need to replenish depleted inventories, growing sales overseas and business investment in new equipment are putting American factories at the forefront of the rebound from the worst recession since the 1930s. A lack of inflation means the Fed has scope to keep the target interest rate near zero in coming months to spur growth. Manufacturers added 29,000 workers to payrolls in May, a fifth consecutive gain, the workweek lengthened and the average amount of overtime climbed to the highest level in two years, pointing to an acceleration on factory floors, data from the Labor Department showed earlier this month. Factory Gains Regional reports may show manufacturing kept driving the recovery this month. Factories in the New York Fed district expanded for an 11th month, a June 15 report will show, while data from the Philadelphia Fed two days later will say those in its area grew for a 10th month, according to economists surveyed. Deere & Co ., the world’s largest farm-equipment maker, said on its website last week that sales of utility tractors rose in the “double digits” in May, compared with a 6 percent increase for the industry overall. Growing global demand for agricultural commodities, housing and infrastructure are driving sales, Samuel Allen , chief executive officer of the Moline, Illinois-based company, said last month in a statement. Deere last month raised earnings and sales forecasts for a second time this year after second-quarter profit top analysts’ estimates. Manufacturing shares are outperforming the broader market. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Machinery Index , which includes Deere and Peoria, Illinois-based Caterpillar Inc., is up 7 percent so far this year, compared with a 2.1 decline in the S&P 500 Index on growing concern that the European debt crisis will slow global growth. Less Inflation Three reports from the Labor Department this week will show the plunge in fuel prices precipitated by the turmoil in financial markets is tamping inflation. The import-price index , due on June 15, dropped 1.3 percent in May, after an increase of 0.9 percent the prior month. The producer-price index, issued the following day, declined 0.5 percent after a 0.1 percent decrease in April, according to the survey median. Consumer prices in May are forecast to drop 0.2 percent, after declining 0.1 percent the previous month, the survey median showed. Excluding food and fuel, the so-called core rate rose 0.1 percent after no change the previous month, economists projected. The lack of inflation validates the Fed’s strategy to maintain the benchmark lending rates on overnight loans between banks near zero to spur growth. Their next decision on interest rates is due June 23. Home Construction One area that may not fare well in coming months is housing. Work began on 648,000 houses at an annual pace last month, down from a 672,000 rate in April, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed before Commerce Department figures June 16. The end of a government tax credit at the end of the month will cool sales and construction in the second half of the year, economists said. The incentive for first-time homebuyers worth as much as $8,000, which was extended in November to include some current owners, required contracts be signed by April 30 and settled by June 30. Finally, a report from the Conference Board, a New York- based research group, will show growth outlook brightened last month. The group’s index of leading economic indicators, due on June 17, increased 0.4 percent in May, according to economists surveyed. The measure had climbed for 12 consecutive months before declining 0.1 percent in April. To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Rizwan A. Rahmani: The Unrealized Economic Potential of the Muslim World

June 11, 2010

The meteoric rise of China as an economic powerhouse may have its roots in a society that has a rich cultural history of innovation and exchange. But when China cut itself off from the world, it lay dormant for a long time, mired in feudalism and illiteracy. The Cultural Revolution brought a constrained societal structure of state-planned families, rigid education, and compulsory participation of both sexes in the workforce. This may have laid the early blueprint for its current industrial dominance, which accelerated to a frenzied pace once China loosened its grip on economic policies and encouraged trade. The biggest key to its success may lie in its workforce, which is literate (about 90 percent or better for women over fifteen years and older), abundant, skilled, cheap, and nearly half female. Women make about forty five percent of the Chinese workforces, and they are represented at many levels. They garner thirty eight percent of leadership positions, and increasingly they are filling seats in higher offices. So what does Chinese economic demography have to with the Muslim world? To put it bluntly, Muslim nations offer dismal demographic data regarding women in the workforce, and it is this data that will decide whether these countries are going to be economically or technologically significant in the future. As it stands now, none of these modern economically nascent Muslim nations are consequential in the areas I mentioned, some of which can be attributed to cultural and religious idiosyncrasies. Malaysia, a country with a high literacy rate for women, is a progressive yardstick by which other Muslim countries should be measured: it has 36 percent female representation in its overall workforce and in over 50 percent of technology jobs — a figure even higher than some industrialized western countries. Women account for 38 percent of all tertiary enrollments in Malaysia. Although even with these exemplary statistics, it is by no means an economic powerhouse, it is still better off than most other Muslim countries. Malaysia has some high-tech fabrication plants and a middle scale multi-sector manufacturing base, both of which women feature in significantly. Setting aside the issue of human rights and appealing solely to economic motivation for the sake of argument, the other countries should take note of this fact and start educating more women to join their workforce. Lebanon — which is quite modernized despite being battered by nearly four decades of civil war, foreign encroachments, and losses of livelihood and infrastructure — manages a 27 percent female presence in it workforce, and 45 percent in academic enrollment. The literacy rate among women is high in Jordan, Libya, Tunisia, Palestine, Syria, and Algeria at better than 50 percent for women over fifteen years of age, but they lack industries and a manufacturing base. There are some former soviet block Muslim countries that should, theoretically, have high literacy rates (free education for all being a promised fruit of communism) and should consequently have a good percentage of women in the workforce, but these countries are still quite arcane industrially and accurate data is not forthcoming. While they have industries, their manufacturing plants are in state of disrepair. Turkey, which is also very modernized and progressive, manages just a 22 percent representation of women in its labor force. This was a bit of a surprise for me because I expected it to be higher — forgetting its sheer size and predominance of rural areas over metropolises! Curiously, Iran fares better than Turkey at 25 percent women in the workforce. But there are other statistics about Iran that are quite revealing. For example, Iran has improved its percentage of women in the workforce since the fall of its Shah. And of all the Muslim countries, Iran has the highest rate of enrollment of women in its academic institutions, even surpassing men, at 60 percent: a fact that may astonish the American audience whose news diet is entirely based on anemic but ubiquitous cable news. So why do these Muslim nations have such poor representation of women in the workforce? Most of the other Muslim nations, other than the ones I mentioned, have far worse literacy rates. Pakistan, which touts itself as the only Islamic nuclear power, has one of the worst literacy rates for women, faring worse than the Muslim women of India. The treatment of women in these countries is deplorable, especially in the rural areas where local land owners reign supreme with little or no legal reach of the central government. Countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and sub-Saharan Africa are the worst offenders. Saudi Arabia is notorious for treating its women as second class citizens by wrenching away many rights; the women are mostly literate, but hardly factor in the workforce. Iran, despite its veiling laws for women and a code conduct between the sexes, leaves the citizenry alone when it comes to education. The Arabian Gulf countries treat their women only marginally better: they do not have compulsory veiling laws and there is a good literacy rate among women–however, women are not represented well in the workforce or in leadership positions. Yet even this good literacy rate statistic is spurious: a very high percentage (nearly 85 percent) of their population is foreign, and most of them immigrate there after being educated in their native countries. This ignoble treatment of women in Muslim countries is quite inscrutable when you consider the fact that the prophet Mohammad honed his interpersonal and negotiating skills working for a business woman from a well known family in Mecca. She hired him to manage her trade caravans to Syria and Yemen: he later became known for his deft and ethical business style, stemming from these trade dealings. He married his employer (who was older than him) at her own request, and she was his first wife. The pre-Islamic women of Arabia were pretty much treated like commodities. They had very poor civil rights and no legal representation. With the advent of Islam, they did acquire some important rights. They were given a form of binding financial nuptial agreement (haq mehr) that is bestowed upon the bride by the groom, and the bride has the right to collect this amount in the event of a divorce. They were given inheritance rights, the right to consent to a marriage, and divorce rights (Catholicism still doesn’t allow divorce legally: a difficult-to-win annulment is not exactly a divorce). Any asset that was brought into the marriage by the bride became the sole domain of the bride alone. Women could keep their lineage name (albeit coming from their father’s side)…and more. The bourgeoisie of the Indian subcontinent and of some of the other poor Muslim countries do educate and treat women better than other societal strata, and they do have better literacy rates than the national average. But these educated women tend to ‘marry up’, and tend not to practice their métier once married. They are either expected to or on their own volition, often fall into the traditional housewife role even after the children are reared or well looked after. In the subcontinent where I grew up (and in the Middle East), these educated women became the consummate socialites after marriage, entertaining friends, family, and extended family incessantly, and spending much of their time honing the art of gossiping to quell their ennui. Seldom did the socialites I saw around me volunteer their time towards community organizations or become part of an association or organization to further the economic or social cause of less fortunate Muslim women. Tragically some of these women happen to be, by training, doctors and teachers. There is an old African saying, “If you educate a man you educate an individual, but if you educate a woman you educate the community”–something that, sadly, is true unless these women apply themselves towards the noble professions they chose in the first place. If the Muslim world wants to succeed and become part of the modern economic fabric with a twenty-first century economy, it must not only educate its women far better but also incorporate them into their workforce without any social stigma. Perhaps an eighteenth century industrial economy with the help of colonization can promulgate a country into prosperity, innovation, and a high standard of living, but this is 2010. In the last fifty years of worldwide economic changes and growth, there hasn’t been a single country which had had rousing success without the help of both halves of the populous. With these lugubrious statistics the Islamic world faces, it’s quite unlikely we’ll see any dominant economic phoenix rising from the current pile of socio-economic ashes, which has been lying dormant for centuries now.

Read the full article →

BP Oil Leak Estimate Is Doubled by U.S. Scientists to 40,000 Barrels a Day

June 11, 2010

By Jessica Resnick-Ault June 11 (Bloomberg) — BP Plc ’s damaged well in the Gulf of Mexico has been leaking twice as much oil as previously estimated, a team of government scientists said in its latest report on the size of the worst spill in U.S. history. The well is gushing 20,000 to 40,000 barrels of oil a day, according to an estimate released yesterday by the scientists, tasked by the government with calculating the flow. On May 27, the group pegged the rate at 12,000 to 19,000 barrels a day. The latest figure is for the size of the leak prior to June 3, when BP sawed off a bent riser pipe, potentially increasing the amount of crude escaping by as much as 20 percent. The scientists don’t have a projection for the current flow, Marcia McNutt , director of the U.S. Geological Survey, said in a news conference yesterday. “Our scientific analysis is still a work in progress, as you can tell from a range of estimates,” said McNutt, who is overseeing several independent flow-rate teams using different methods. Two offered revised flow models which were higher than those presented two weeks ago, she said. Another two are revising their data and will deliver their figures by the end of the month. Preliminary figures from a team of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution scientists suggest the well could be leaking as much as 50,000 barrels a day, McNutt said. An accurate estimate of the volume is vital for those responding to the spill, according to U.S. Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen . BP is capturing about half of the new estimated flow rate from the broken well, almost a mile down on the seabed of the Gulf of the Mexico, and siphoning it to ships on the surface. Bigger Than Valdez The “most credible estimate” for the size of the leak before the riser pipe was cut is 20,000 to 40,000 barrels a day, McNutt said. Her team hasn’t yet calculated the volume beyond June 3. Based on the midpoint of the latest approximation of 30,000 barrels, from April 22 when the Deepwater Horizon rig sank until June 3 the well gushed 1.26 million barrels of oil, or 52.9 billion gallons. The Exxon Valdez spilled an estimated 257,000 barrels in 1989. At a daily rate of 30,000 barrels, or 1.3 million gallons, the BP Macondo well disaster would generate that much every 8.5 days. On June 3, BP sawed off the riser pipe that had been kinked near the seafloor, constricting the flow of oil from the leak. The clean cut allowed the company to secure a containment cap to the pipe, capturing some of the escaping oil and funneling it to ships at the surface. Higher Flow Rate BP suggested that cutting the pipe may have increased the flow rate by 20 percent. McNutt said her teams of scientists are still trying to calculate how much the volume might have changed since that operation. BP collected 15,520 barrels of crude at the surface between noon on June 9 and noon on June 10, the last 24-hour period for which data is available. According to the midpoint of the latest estimates from the group of scientists, this would be about half of the oil being released each day. The first ship positioned to capture the oil is able to collect 18,000 barrels a day. By next week, BP will raise that capacity by 55 percent to 28,000 barrels in total, Allen said yesterday in a press conference. “We’re locked into a recovery mode that is way under capacity for what’s really coming out,” Ian MacDonald, an oceanographer at Florida State University in Tallahassee, said an interview after yesterday’s announcement. MacDonald has estimated the well to be leaking 26,500 to 30,000 barrels a day, six times more than the figure that BP and the government used from April 28 to May 27. 50,000 Barrels a Day? “A reasonable estimate is 22,000 barrels a day to 30,000 barrels a day,” said Tad Patzek , chair of petroleum and geosystems engineering at the University of Texas at Austin. “I don’t think 40,000 barrels a day. If BP starts recovering 28,000 barrels a day, then I will revise my estimate.” A spill rate of 50,000 barrels a day is supported by an April 27 BP memo made public on May 27 by Congressman Edward Markey , a Massachusetts Democrat, Florida State University’s MacDonald said. The memo included data on how BP had arrived at its high projection of 14,286 a day. BP assumed the oil was far thinner on the surface than it was, MacDonald said. “BP fully supported this effort to establish the new estimates,” Max McGahan, a spokesman for the London-based company, said in a telephone interview. BP provided the scientific team with data and video, he said. Each of the scientific methods being used has biases, which may shape the results they produce, McNutt said. After BP has captured all of the flow, scientists will be able to determine which methodologies were most accurate and what the biases were. “We will be able to do a much better job next time,” she said. To contact the reporter on this story: Jessica Resnick-Ault in New York at jresnickault@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Robert Siciliano: NY ATMs Get Whacked: How Secure Are You and That ATM Transaction?

June 10, 2010

ATM fraud is more common and likely than a crime committed directly against customers who are in the process of attempting to withdraw cash from the machines , according to NetworkWorld . When studying “emergency PIN technologies” they state fraud was one of the few concrete conclusions from a report about the use of emergency technology at ATMs issued by the Federal Trade Commission . Meanwhile reports indicate that thieves used “skimmer” devices to steal $217,000 from Long Island Banks between April and the end of May 2010. Banking information was then re-encoded onto the magnetic strips of blank gift cards. Investigators report that the thefts occurred in Suffolk County, N.Y. They estimate that between 100 and 200 accounts may have been cloned. The ATM is all about quick easy cash. In the world of technology, when “quick” is paired with “easy” there is a sacrifice made in regards to security. Security is often slow and difficult and most people won’t sacrifice convenience for personal security . Certainly there is a degree of security in ATMs, b ut to make them fully secure requires the end user to do more, and unfortunately users often don’t have the ability to jump through all the hoops security requires. However by understanding some of the risks and incorporating some security tips you can protect yourself. Always be vigilant when you are at an ATM. Look around the perimeter of the kiosk and beware of anyone paying unwanted attention. If someone is “lurking” they could be waiting to pounce or are shoulder surfing to get your PIN code. Choose a PIN that’s not easily guessed but can be quickly entered. Consecutive numbers or the same numbers is never a good idea. Often new ATMs won’t allow you to choose a “soft” PIN anyway. Don’t ever let anyone help you at an ATM. It’s hard to envision what kind of scenario might involve another perso n intervening at an ATM. But consider this: Your card gets stuck, someone graciously peeks their head over your shoulder to help. They un – stick your card and help you finish the transaction. In the process they got your PIN and swapped your card with another. In another example two women picked up drunk guys from bars who were waiting for a cab and persuaded them to pull money out of the ir ATMs while they watched for the PINs. Once they got back to the car one, while making out with him, would pick his pocket and hand off the card to the friend. Beware of ATM skimming and be able to recognize what an ATM skimmer looks like. Here are some excellent pictures of a well made covert skimming device attached to the face of an ATM. You really need to look for it to recognize it. Not all are as well crafted, but some are very good. ATM skimming of course is when the information on the back of your card is “skimmed” and the criminal then burns the data onto another card and makes withdrawals. They may have also installed a camera behind a brochure holder, speaker, mirror or in a light bar. If you ever get a vibe that something doesn’t feel right, just leave. Always shield the ATM keypad with your second before entering your PIN. Meanwhile Romanian Police raided 38 locations an d arrested five fraudsters allegedly part of a card cloning gang. Those detained face accusations of being members of an organized crime group, unauthorized access to a computer system, possessing card-cloning equipment, access device fraud and distributing fake electronic-payment devices. Based on this video , they didn’t get a whole lot of equipment but confiscated some cash. To help combat this type of crime, ADT unveiled the ADT Anti-Skim ATM Security Solution , which helps prevent skimming attempts and detects skimming devices on all major ATM makes and models. ADT’s anti-skim solution is installed inside an ATM near the card reader, making it invisible from the outside. The solution detects the presence of foreign devices placed over or near an ATM card entry slot, without disrupting the customer transaction or operation of most ATMs. It can trigger a silent alarm for command center response and coordinate video surveillance of all skimming activities. Also, the technology helps prevent card-skimming attempts by interrupting the operation of an illegal card reader. This technology does not require any software adjustments be made to the ATM itself, and does not connect to or affect the ATM communications network. Prior to its North American introduction, the ADT Anti-Skim ATM Security Solution was successfully field tested on dozens of ATMs of four major U.S. financial institutions in controlled pilot programs. Testing pilots yielded positive results, with no known skimming compromises occurring. Robert Siciliano personal security expert to ADT Home Security Source discussing ATM skimming on Extra TV. Disclosures .

Read the full article →

China&rsquos May Exports Rise 48.5%, Property Prices Jump

June 10, 2010

By Bloomberg News June 10 (Bloomberg) — China’s exports jumped the most in six years and property prices rose at a near-record pace, signs that the economy is withstanding the sovereign-debt crisis in Europe and remains at risk of overheating. Exports gained 48.5 percent in May from a year earlier, the customs bureau said today, more than the 32 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 32 economists. None expected such a big gain. Real-estate prices rose 12.4 percent across 70 cities, the statistics bureau said separately. Stocks fell, extending the Shanghai Composite Index’s 21 percent decline this year, on concern the government will step up policy tightening. The leap in exports could be a blip before European demand wanes, while falling property sales signal a looming slowdown in investment that may cool the world’s third- biggest economy, investment bank China International Capital Corp. said. Today’s data “may be the good news before the bad news as the European debt crisis curbs the region’s demand and property- market corrections drag on investment,” said CICC’s Xing Ziqiang , a Beijing-based economist. “Exports may decelerate rapidly later this year and economic growth may slow to around 7.5 percent in the fourth quarter.” In the first quarter, China’s growth was 11.9 percent from a year earlier. Shanghai’s stock benchmark dropped 0.4 percent as of 1:18 p.m. local time as the MSCI Asia Pacific index rose 0.8 percent. Chinese stocks jumped the most in more than two weeks yesterday after a Reuters report indicated the size of the export increase and larger growth in new loans than economists had expected. Betting on Yuan Non-deliverable yuan forwards were little changed, indicating traders are betting that the currency will gain about 0.5 percent against the dollar in the next 12 months. Since July 2008, the yuan has been held by officials around 6.83 per dollar, after Premier Wen Jiabao ’s government allowed a 21 percent advance in the prior three years. Today’s export number was flattered by the comparison with May 2009, when shipments fell by a record. Exports rose to $131.76 billion last month, the highest value since September 2008, and imports climbed 48.3 percent to $112.23 billion. The trade surplus of $19.53 billion was the biggest in seven months. The trade gap “suggests that the pressures on the yuan to appreciate remain” and will “provide evidence to some that China’s currency is still undervalued,” said Liu Li-Gang , a Hong Kong-based economist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. Global Risks Shipments to the European Union jumped 50 percent from a year earlier, compared with 29 percent in April. Those to the U.S. climbed 44 percent, up from 19 percent. In contrast, the International Monetary Fund warned yesterday that global economic risks have “risen significantly” and Europe’s woes could disrupt global trade. China’s pegging of the yuan to the dollar has resulted in a 20 percent gain against the euro this year that will make exports to that region less competitive with rivals such as South Korea. “The strong rebound in exports may be short-lived, with the debt crisis yet to affect Europe’s economy,” said Lu Zhengwei , a Shanghai-based economist at Industrial Bank Co. “Still, solid export growth offers a perfect window of opportunity to allow more flexibility in the yuan by de-pegging from the dollar and widening the trading band.” The jump in property prices compared with a 12.8 percent increase in April from a year earlier, which was a record for the data series beginning in 2005. China intensified a crackdown on real-estate speculation in April to prevent asset bubbles and keep housing affordable. Sliding Property Sales Last month marked the first easing in the annual rate of property price gains in 11 months, while the figure exceeded the 12 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of seven economists. Month-on-month, prices advanced 0.2 percent and sales slid 25 percent. Sales by China Vanke Co. , the nation’s biggest publicly traded property developer, dropped 20 percent in May from a year ago, and Guangzhou R&F Properties Co. ’s contracted sales shrank 48 percent, according to the developers’ stock exchange filings. Last month’s biggest year-on-year price gains were in Hainan, the southern island being developed as a tourist destination. Hainan’s Haikou and Sanya cities reported annual increases of 52.8 percent and 50.8 percent. Beijing, Guangzhou Among the 70 cities covered, 12 had price declines in May from the previous month, including Beijing, Nanjing and Guangzhou. Eastern China’s Hangzhou saw the biggest monthly drop, at 0.6 percent. In trade, today’s figures contrasted with March, when China posted its first deficit in six years as imports surged, outpacing export growth by 42 percentage points. Inbound shipments will continue to decelerate on falling commodity costs and a slowdown in domestic investment growth, according to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. May’s export gain was the biggest in more than six years after smoothing out distortions in January and February each year caused by a Lunar New Year holiday. — Li Yanping , with assistance from Joyce Koh in Singapore. Editors: Paul Panckhurst , Russell Ward . To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Li Yanping in Beijing at +86-10-6649-7568 or yli16@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

BP Trades as Junk Bond Amid Credit-Default Swap Inversion Credit Markets

June 9, 2010

By John Detrixhe and Shannon D. Harrington June 10 (Bloomberg) — BP Plc bonds and credit-default swaps are trading as if the energy company has lost its investment-grade credit rating as costs mount from the cleanup of the worst oil spill in U.S. history. BP’s $3 billion of 5.25 percent notes due in 2013 fell as low as a record 89.94 cents yesterday, pushing the yield to 7.57 percentage points more than Treasuries. The spread compares with the average of 7.26 percentage points for junk bonds, Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show. The cost to protect $10 million of London-based BP debt for one year with credit-default swaps almost doubled to $512,000, according to CMA DataVision. It was $29,000 on April 30. “That’s just pure out panic,” said Michael Donelan , who oversees $3.5 billion of bonds at Ryan Labs Inc. in New York. “That’s like, ‘Get me out of here now.’ What the market is pricing in now is increased regulatory oversight and heavy, heavy punitive damages.” Debt investors are losing confidence in BP’s creditworthiness as the company fails to contain the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico. BP said June 7 it has spent $1.25 billion so far, or about $27 million a day, related to the accident. Credit Suisse Group AG estimated the total cost may reach $37 billion. Fannie Mae, Citigroup Credit-default swaps on BP debt implied a rating for the company of Ba2 as of June 8, nine steps lower than its actual grade of Aa2 by Moody’s Investors Service, based on data from the ratings firm’s capital markets research group. The implied rating was as high as A3 on May 28, the data show. Junk bonds are rated below Baa3 by Moody’s and lower than BBB- by Standard & Poor’s. Losses in bonds of BP, The Woodlands, Texas-based Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and Transocean Ltd. of Vernier, Switzerland, the other two companies involved in the oil spill, have sparked a 2.34 percent drop in Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s U.S. Corporate Energy index since April. A global broad corporate bond index is down just 0.24 percent in the same period. Elsewhere in credit markets, two-year interest-rate swap spreads, a measure of bank risk, fell to the lowest in three weeks. Fannie Mae, the U.S.-supported mortgage company, plans to sell $3 billion of five-year benchmark notes after issuing $1 billion in a reopening of two-year debt, and Citigroup Inc. issued $1.88 billion of securities. The difference between yields on two-year Treasuries and the rate to convert fixed payments to floating narrowed as much as 3.6 basis points to 38.4. Two-year interest-rate swap spreads soared to a 13-month high of 52.25 basis points on May 24 as investors fled all but the safest government securities. The spread had dropped as low as 9.63 on March 24, the narrowest since 1993. Emerging Markets The average spread on Merrill’s Global Broad Market Corporate index rose 1 basis point to 199 basis points, or 1.99 percentage points, yesterday. The yield was 4.08 percent. Fannie Mae’s five-year notes will be sold tomorrow, according to an e-mailed statement from the Washington-based company. Citigroup’s 6 percent debt maturing in December 2013 yields 5.43 percent and pays 425 basis points more than similar- maturity Treasuries, Bloomberg data show. Spreads on emerging-market bonds narrowed 1 basis point to 337 basis points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Emerging Market Bond index. The gap has ranged from a low of 230 basis points on April 15 to as high as 346 on May 20. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, rose 2.3 basis points to a mid- price of 131.8 basis points as of 5:48 p.m. in New York, according to Markit Group Ltd. That’s the highest end-of-day level since July 14, according to CMA. European iTraxx In London, the Markit iTraxx Europe index linked to the debt of 125 companies fell 4.7 basis points to 135.75, Markit prices show. It reached the highest since May 2009 on June 8, CMA prices show. The Markit iTraxx Asia index fell 1 basis point to 151 basis points today, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. The indexes typically rise as investor confidence deteriorates. Credit swaps pay the buyer face value if a borrower fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt. A basis point equals $1,000 annually on a contract protecting $10 million of debt. BP has seven bonds with a face value of $10.6 billion in the Bank of America Merrill Lynch energy index. The spread on the bonds widened an average of 162 basis points to 541 basis points yesterday. The gap on the index is 239. Anadarko bond spreads surged 37 basis points to 501 on average, and Transocean surged 42 to 539. ‘His Life Back’ Ian MacDonald, an oceanographer at Florida State University in Tallahassee, estimated the well is leaking 26,500 barrels to 30,000 barrels a day into the Gulf, six times more than the figure used by BP and the government from April 28 to May 27. “The piece of news that seems to have broken the camel’s back was an increase of estimated spill volumes,” said Guy Lebas , chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. Investors should be “underweight” oil and gas debt, a change from “marketweight,” Lebas wrote in a June 7 report, amid greater regulation and a halt to drilling to projects. President Barack Obama said this week he would have fired BP Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward for saying he wanted to end the leak because he wanted “his life back.” Obama said he has made three trips to the Gulf to find out who to hold responsible, “so I know whose ass to kick.” Lawmakers led by Representative Peter Welch , a Vermont Democrat, wrote to Hayward urging him to stop paying dividends and cancel an advertising campaign in the U.S. until the cleanup is done. “They’re getting a lot of flak from politicians, and that’s raising concerns about the dividend,” said Peter Hitchens , an analyst at Panmure Gordon & Co. in London. “Operationally, they seem to have turned the corner.” BP Bond Spreads As recently as the end of April, BP bond spreads averaged 46 basis points. The increase amounts to an extra $33 million in interest a year on every $1 billion BP borrows. BP has about $24.9 billion of debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, with $1.32 billion due this year and $5.96 billion maturing in 2011. The year’s debt payments are split between two issues in November, Bloomberg data show. The 5.25 percent BP notes due in 2013 fell 5.75 cents to yield 7.89 percent as of 5:01 p.m. in New York, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. That compares with 9.45 percent for high- yield, high risk corporate debt, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. Short-Term Protection Anadarko’s $1.75 billion of 6.45 percent bonds due in 2036 tumbled 5.75 cents to 76.5 cents for a yield spread of 4.63 percentage points, Trace data show. Credit-default swaps on its debt increased 221 basis points to 655. Transocean’s $1 billion of 6.8 percent securities due in 2038 fell 4.75 cents to 80.25 cents, for a spread of 4.58 percentage points. Credit-default swaps on its debt jumped 98 basis points to 613. Banks and other trading partners may be buying short-term protection from losses on derivatives they have with BP, said Tim Backshall , chief strategist at Credit Derivatives Research LLC in Walnut Creek, California. One-year credit swaps are trading 125 basis points more than the annual cost to protect the bonds for five years in a so-called inverted curve, according to CMA prices. Derivatives used for hedging foreign-exchange risk used by companies such as BP tend to be shorter-dated, Backshall said. BP uses derivatives to hedge its exposure to energy price swings as well as to take proprietary positions, according to its 2009 annual report. “The contracts may be entered into for risk management purposes, to satisfy supply requirements or for entrepreneurial trading,” the company document says. Counterparties BP’s largest category of derivatives is related to natural gas prices. Next are contracts based on oil prices. The company also has exposure to currency and interest-rate derivatives. Its largest derivative positions are classified as level 2, such as swaps, in which prices may be determined but aren’t derived from listed markets like futures exchanges, which is the standard used for level 1 values, the report shows. BP’s derivatives assets classified as level 2 at the end of last year were $13.1 billion, while its level 2 liabilities were $11.6 billion. By comparison, level 1 assets were $290 million and level 1 liabilities were $173 million. BP’s exposure to counterparties, or what could be lost if they all failed to pay their obligations to the company, totaled $49.6 billion for financial assets at the end of 2009, according to the annual report. It had $549 million in collateral against that potential loss, it said. Alan Haywood , chief operating officer of BP’s IST Global Gas unit, part of the arm that trades in oil, natural gas, chemicals, finance and shipping, is a board member of the International Swaps & Derivatives Association, the OTC market’s trade and lobbying group, according to ISDA’s website. To contact the reporters on this story: John Detrixhe in New York at jdetrixhe1@bloomberg.net ; Shannon D. Harrington in New York at sharrington6@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

GM, Ford to Accelerate Growth at Mexico Plants Where Workers Get $26 a Day

June 9, 2010

By Thomas Black June 9 (Bloomberg) – Mexico’s share of North American auto production may rise at a quicker pace as General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler Group LLC seek out workers making less than 10 percent of what their U.S. counterparts earn. The lower labor costs may help the U.S. companies build smaller cars profitably amid demand for fuel-efficient vehicles in the wake of last year’s recession. Mexico’s gains will come at the expense of workers in the U.S. and Canada, said Dennis DesRosiers , president of DesRosiers Automotive Consulting Inc. “There is going to be more capacity put into North America and Mexico is going to get more than its fair share,” DesRosiers said from Richmond Hill, Ontario. Moves to Mexico may speed up after Chrysler and GM lessen some of the political pressure they face by paying back government bailout money, said Michael Robinet , vice president of global forecasting for CSM Worldwide in Northville, Michigan. The U.S. government has distributed about $80 billion in the Auto Industry Financing Program to support the industry. DesRosiers says Mexico’s share of North American auto production will rise to 19 percent over the next decade from an average 12 percent in 2000 to 2009. Over the same period, the U.S. will lose 7 percentage points to 65 percent of the market and Canada’s share will hold at 16 percent, he said. GM workers in Mexico earn wages and benefits of 340 pesos a day ($26.40) on average, or less than $4 an hour, said Tereso Medina, head of the union for GM’s 5,000 workers in Saltillo, a city that makes one in four Mexican autos. Ford workers in the U.S. earn about $55 an hour with benefits, compared with $50 an hour for Toyota Motor Corp. ’s U.S. workers, Lewis Booth , Ford’s chief financial officer, said on a Jan. 28 conference call. ‘Reprehensible’ Practice Representative John Dingell , a Michigan Democrat, said U.S. automakers that received government assistance should work to preserve U.S. jobs. “I understand the economic argument for the off-shoring of production, but I think the practice is reprehensible,” Dingell said in an e-mail. “U.S. automakers have benefitted greatly from federal largesse and should feel morally compelled to retain and create as many domestic jobs as possible.” In addition to labor costs, automakers are attracted to Mexico because of the North American Free Trade Agreement and its proximity to the U.S., Robinet said. Other benefits include Mexico’s more than 30 free-trade accords with European Union members, Japan, Colombia and other countries, and quality that matches the U.S. and Canada, he said. U.S. and Canadian unions have made concessions to bring costs at older factories in line with Toyota’s and Honda Motor Co.’s U.S. plants. Ron Gettelfinger , the outgoing United Auto Workers president, oversaw an agreement to allow lower wages for new hires. ‘New Strategies’ Even with the UAW concessions, Mexico remains attractive, Medina said. “For the new strategies of the automobile industry, this region should benefit,” Medina said in an interview. Christine Moroski, a UAW spokeswoman, declined to comment. Mexico stands to benefit from more stringent U.S. fuel- efficiency requirements because it’s more profitable to make small cars where labor costs are lower, Robinet said. Chrysler announced in February it’s spending $550 million to retool its factory in Toluca to assemble the Fiat 500 model. Last month, Ford reopened an assembly plant in Cuautitlan to build 2011 Fiesta cars. The factory will generate 2,000 jobs and is part of $3 billion of investments announced since 2008. In the U.S., Ford has closed four assembly plants since 2006 and plans to close four more facilities by the end of 2011. Mexico was responsible for 14.2 percent of Ford’s U.S.- Mexican car production last year, and 16 percent in 2008, compared with 11.8 percent in 2006, according to company data. Ford’s Investment For every dollar Ford invested in Mexico during the past five years, the company spent $7 in the U.S., said James Tetreault , vice president of North American manufacturing. Ford’s two Mexican assembly plants have operated for more than 30 years, he said. “In North America, it’s all about utilizing our existing footprint,” Tetreault said in a phone interview from Dearborn, Michigan. “It’s not like we’re building greenfield plants and moving production to Mexico.” U.S. car and light truck production declined every year to 8.45 million in 2008 from 11.5 million in 2005, according to Ward’s Automotive Yearbook . In Mexico, output rose every year to 2.08 million in 2008 from 1.61 million in 2005, the data show. Production fell in both countries last year, by 28 percent to 1.5 million units in Mexico and 34 percent to 5.56 million in the U.S., according to Ward’s. Auto Production This year, U.S. production in April rose 40 percent from a year earlier to an annualized rate of 7.05 million vehicles. Mexico’s output jumped 77 percent and is on pace to top 2008, according to the Mexican Automobile Industry Association . GM has announced investments of $3.67 billion in Mexico since November 2007, including a new assembly plant in San Luis Potosi, said Mauricio Kuri, a company spokesman in Mexico City. The company has closed five U.S.-based assembly plants and put three more on standby since June 2005, Tom Wilkinson , a GM spokesman, said in an e-mail. A significant portion of Chrysler’s production of the Fiat 500 will be sold in South America, said Jodi Tinson , a spokeswoman. “Mexico is in an ideal position as a bridge between Nafta and Latin America because of the country’s free-trade agreements with its neighbors to both the north and south,” Tinson said in the e-mailed response to questions. To contact the reporter on this story: Thomas Black in Monterrey at tblack@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Tam Bonds Rally as Record Brazil Air Travel Offsets Debt Rating Downgrade

June 8, 2010

By Gabrielle Coppola June 8 (Bloomberg) — Tam SA’s relative borrowing costs are declining from a record high as the fastest growth in domestic air travel since at least 2006 offsets concern about fleet expansion at Brazil’s second-largest carrier. Tam’s 9.5 percent bonds due in 2020 yielded 529 basis points more than Brazil’s government debt, down from 593 basis points on May 26, a day before Fitch Ratings joined Standard & Poor’s in cutting the Sao Paulo-based company’s credit grade by one level. Brazilian air travel has jumped more than 20 percent for 10 straight months, the longest streak since the civil aviation agency began collecting the data four years ago. The nation’s economic expansion will bolster Tam’s revenue, increase utilization of the eight planes it added in the first quarter and shore up its debt-to-earnings ratio, according to CreditSights Inc. “There’s much more flying going on, much more demand,” Roger King , an analyst at CreditSights who has covered airlines for 20 years, said in a telephone interview from Norwalk, Connecticut. “That’s a fundamental positive.” Yields on Tam’s $300 million of bonds due 2020 have dropped 50 basis points from 10.76 percent on May 26, the highest since the securities were issued in October, as the price climbed 2.9 cents on the dollar to 95.4 cents at 9:15 a.m. New York time, according to Trace, the bond price-reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The average yield on Brazilian corporate dollar debt dropped nine basis points, or 0.09 percentage point, to 6.61 percent during that time, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s CEMBI index . Tam-Gol Gap The rally is a reversal of last month, when Tam bonds sank 5.75 cents, driving the yield up 95 basis points, following the S&P rating cut to B+, or four levels below investment grade, and on concern that Europe’s debt crisis would stunt global economic growth. Tam receives 41 percent of revenue from international travel, compared with 11 percent at Sao Paulo-based Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA , Brazil’s biggest airline by market value, according to April figures. The difference in yield between Tam’s bonds due in 2017 and similar-maturity debt issued by Gol rose to a record 126 basis points last month before narrowing to 94 yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. S&P said on May 12 that it lowered Tam’s rating in part because the company’s fleet expansion “will continue adding” to its debt and undercut aircraft utilization. Tam’s eight new planes boosted its fleet 6 percent to 140, according to the company’s first-quarter results. ‘Fierce’ Competition “Fierce” price competition has eroded yields, or average fare per mile, S&P said in a statement. Fitch matched S&P’s downgrade two weeks later, citing a “deterioration” in Tam’s credit quality. Tam had a ratio of net debt-to-earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and rent of 7.1 at the end of the first quarter, compared with 3.9 at Gol, according to Itau Unibanco Holding SA. Excluding rent, Tam had an average debt-to- earnings ratio of 9.3, compared with an average of 5.4 at Latin American airlines, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “Of course they have to reduce their leverage, but I don’t see any immediate liquidity problem,” said Marcelo Menusso , a corporate bond analyst for Deutsche Bank AG in New York. Rebound in June Brazil’s economy, Latin America’s biggest, expanded 9 percent in the first quarter, its fastest annual rate since 1995. Gross domestic product may grow 6.6 percent this year, the most since 1986, according to a central bank survey of about 100 financial institutions released yesterday. Tam earnings will improve this quarter after reporting a 54.5 million reais ($29 million) loss in the January-to-March period, according to Itau. “April was weak, May was weak, but June was rebounding,” Libano Miranda Barroso , Chief Executive Officer of Tam, said in an interview in Berlin yesterday. “So what we see is that year over year it will be better.” The Tam debt rally may stall because Europe’s most-indebted countries will curb demand for higher-yielding securities to finance budget deficits, said Ciro Matuo and Boanerges Pereira, corporate bond analysts at Itau in Sao Paulo. The cost of protecting Brazil’s debt against non-payment for five years with credit-default swaps rose one basis point yesterday to 147, according to data compiled by CMA DataVision. Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a government or company fail to adhere to its debt agreements. Real Gains The real gained 0.3 percent to 1.8751 per dollar, paring its decline this year to 7 percent. The yield on Brazil’s interest-rate futures contract due in January rose one basis point to 10.97 percent. The extra yield investors demand to own Brazilian corporate dollar bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries jumped six basis points to 350 basis points, according to JPMorgan. The yield gap on Brazilian government dollar debt over Treasuries rose five basis points to 249. The yield difference between Tam’s 2017 bonds and Gol’s 2017 notes may narrow another 20 basis points to about 75 because Tam raised $383 million through an initial public offering of its frequent-flyer unit, Multiplus SA , in February and extended debt maturities with October’s $300 million bond sale, according to Menusso. “On a relative basis, these bonds don’t look bad,” Menusso said. To contact the reporter on this story: Gabrielle Coppola in New York at gcoppola@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Spreading European Fiscal Crisis Hurts Banks Credit Markets

June 7, 2010

By John Glover June 7 (Bloomberg) — Signs the global economic recovery is faltering and Europe’s fiscal crisis is spreading added to investor concern that banks will have difficulty in clawing back the $2.4 trillion they’re owed by that region’s most indebted nations. The cost of insuring against a default on financial-company bonds surged, with the Markit iTraxx Financial Index of credit- default swaps linked to the senior debt of 25 European banks and insurers climbing 6 basis points to 189, according to CMA DataVision in London, near the highest level since March 2009. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of contracts on 15 governments rose 0.5 basis point to 169, compared with the record-high 174.4 reached on June 4. Europe’s debt-ridden nations have to raise almost 2 trillion euros ($2.4 trillion) within the next three years to refinance maturing bonds and fund deficits, according to Bank of America Corp. Data. A U.S. jobs report at the end of last week fell short of economists’ forecasts, while a spokesman for Hungary’s prime minister said it was “no exaggeration” to suggest the eastern European nation may default. “The market is so volatile right now, it’s ready to blow up on any headline no matter how meaningful it should be,” said Aziz Sunderji , a credit strategist at Barclays Capital in London. “People are extremely risk-averse.” Italy needs 1.07 trillion euros by 2013 to refinance debt that’s coming due, Spain must raise 546 billion euros and Greece needs 152.6 billion euros, according to a Bank of America estimate in May. Portugal and Ireland each have to raise about 80 billion euros, the data show. Junk Bond Sale Elsewhere in credit markets, Spectrum Brands Inc. of Atlanta, which makes Rayovac batteries, pet food and lawn-care products, completed the biggest sale of junk bonds in more than three weeks on June 4. The company sold $750 million of eight- year debt, according to Bloomberg data. The notes yield 9.75 percent, or 687 basis points more than similar-maturity Treasuries, Bloomberg data show. The sale was the first by a speculative-grade issuer since DriveTime Automotive Group Inc. of Phoenix issued $200 million of securities on May 27. It was the biggest since Canonsburg, Pennsylvania-based Mylan Inc., the largest U.S. maker of generic drugs, sold $1.25 billion of notes on May 12. Spectrum, which is acquiring small-appliances manufacturer Russell Hobbs Inc. , boosted the size of the note sale by $250 million and cut a planned term loan maturing in 2016 by the same amount while increasing its interest rate and widening the discount from face value, a person familiar with the talks said. Bond Rating Moody’s Investors Service rated the notes B2, five steps below investment grade, and Standard & Poor’s graded them an equivalent B. High-yield debt is rated below Baa3 by Moody’s and lower than BBB- by S&P. Before Spectrum’s sale, high-yield borrowers hadn’t issued debt in four consecutive trading sessions, the longest streak since the week ended Feb. 19, when sales halted after Greece revised down its GDP data for the first three quarters of 2009. Some investors are being lured back into the junk market after yield spreads climbed to the highest levels since the end of 2009. The extra yield investors demand to own junk bonds instead of Treasuries climbed 24 basis points last week to 714, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show. ‘Constructive’ “We’re constructive on the value proposition of high-yield right now,” said Paul Scanlon , team leader for U.S. high yield at Boston-based Putnam Investments LLC, which manages $53 billion in fixed income. “You’re looking at spreads that are 700 basis points off of Treasuries, defaults that continue to decline, first-quarter earnings that have generally been pretty favorable as we evaluate issuers, and in an economy that continues to be in a moderate recovery.” The extra yield investors demand to own corporate bonds rather than government debt is rising at a slower pace. Spreads added 3 basis points last week to 196 basis points, or 1.96 percentage points, after soaring 44 basis points in May, the most since at least November 2008, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Corporate Index. Average yields fell to 4.05 percent from 4.06 percent on May 28. Spectrum’s junk bond sale gave investors some confidence that credit markets will stave off the worst of the financial crisis, as did the stabilization in the rate at which banks say they can borrow from one another in dollars. The three-month Libor rate has been little changed since last week, after more than doubling since February. ‘Mitigates Fears’ “Libor mitigates some of the fears investors have,” said John Hawley, who helps manage $19 billion of investment-grade credit as a senior money manager at Aviva Investors in Des Moines, Iowa. “The fact it has flattened recently indicates that financial markets are functioning normally.” Concern that European leaders won’t be able to prevent a default by Greece or other debt-laden nations pushed three-month Libor to 0.53844 percent on May 27, the highest level since July 6, according to data from the British Bankers’ Association. The rate was little changed at 0.537 percent today. The difference between Libor and the overnight indexed swap rate — a gauge of banks’ reluctance to lend known as the Libor- OIS spread — was little changed at 31.8 basis points today, after last week climbing by the least since the period ending April 23. The spread surged to 364 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008. Bond Sales Fall Corporate bond sales in the U.S. fell in a holiday- shortened week, prices of leveraged loans were little changed after the biggest monthly drop since November 2008. “Markets remain very nervous and sentiment is fragile, but we believe risky assets are in the process of bottoming out,” Barclays fixed-income strategists led by Ajay Rajadhyaksha in New York wrote in a June 4 note to clients. The firm’s economists boosted their estimates of U.S. gross domestic product growth for 2010 to 3.6 percent from 3.4 percent, citing gains in the labor market, private consumption and investment. U.S. corporate profits rose 31 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the most since 1984, Commerce Department data released in Washington two weeks ago showed. Earnings surged as fast only six times in the past 60 years, according to Barclays Capital. Each of those periods was followed by GDP growth of at least 3 percent the following year. The last time it happened, in 2004, the economy expanded 3.6 percent, from 2.5 percent in 2003, and yield spreads on company bonds narrowed to an average of 138 basis points from 171. Continued Recovery “I’m generally bullish,” said Kevin Mathews , head of high-yield portfolios at F&C Investments in London, who helps manage 1.5 billion euros ($1.8 billion) of assets. “Fundamentals point to continued economic recovery. Eventually new issues will come back. My bet is sooner rather than later.” Corporate bond sales declined to $15.6 billion last week, compared with $18.3 billion in the prior period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, amid holidays in the U.S. and U.K. Prices of high-yield, high-risk loans were little changed last week at 88.93 cents on the dollar, after tumbling 3.61 cents in May, based on the S&P/LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan 100 Index. May’s drop was the most since the index plunged 7.6 cents to 63.20 cents in November 2008. Four institutional loan deals were completed last week, bringing this year’s volume to $55.2 billion, compared with $38.2 billion in all of 2009, according to New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. In emerging markets, the extra yield investors demand to own corporate debt instead of government securities widened 11 basis points for the week to 332, according to JPMorgan’s EMBI+ Index. Spreads have tightened from this year’s high of 346 basis points on May 20. Payrolls Report The worse-than-forecast U.S. jobs data and news from Hungary continued to roil markets in Europe and Asia today. “Fiscal issues are challenging the central bankers globally and a well thought-out, concrete and coordinated plan is required soon,” BNP Paribas SA credit strategists led by Vivek Tawadey in London wrote in a note to clients. “The market is starting to voice serious anxiety.” The cost of protecting Italy’s government bonds from default rose, with credit-default swaps on the nation climbing 5 basis points to 250, CMA prices show. Contracts on Spain’s debt increased 7 basis points to 275, while Greece advanced 14 basis points to 778. Portugal was up 4.5 basis points to 363 and contracts on Hungary added 4 basis points to 404, according to CMA. An increase signals a deterioration in investor perceptions of a company or country’s creditworthiness. The Markit iTraxx Asia credit-swap index of 50 investment- grade borrowers outside Japan rose 15 basis points to 147 in Singapore, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. That’s the biggest jump since May 25. Australia Swaps The Markit iTraxx Australia index climbed 15 basis points to 141 in Sydney, the biggest increase since May 19 and to the highest level since Sept. 3, according to Nomura Holdings Inc. and CMA. The Markit iTraxx Japan index surged 15 basis points to 153 in Tokyo, the largest jump since March 25, according to Deutsche Bank AG and CMA. The Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of swaps linked to 50 European companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings jumped 20 basis points to 609, Markit Group Ltd. prices show. The European Central Bank may need to “support markets by being more aggressive in its debt purchases, or government bond markets could unravel,” said Jim Reid , head of fundamental strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in London. “We really are at a pivotal point.” U.S. Employment U.S. payrolls rose by 431,000 last month, including a 411,000 jump in government hiring of temporary workers for the 2010 census, the Labor Department in Washington said on June 4. Economists projected a 536,000 gain, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Private payrolls rose a less-than-forecast 41,000. The jobless rate fell to 9.7 percent. Peter Szijjarto , a spokesman for the Hungarian Prime Minister, said the nation’s economy is in a “very grave situation” on June 4, increasing concern that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, which started in Greece, is spreading. State Secretary Mihaly Varga said the next day that comments about a possible default were “unfortunate.” Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value if a borrower fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt. A basis point equals $1,000 annually on a contract protecting $10 million of debt. To contact the reporter on this story: John Glover in London at johnglover@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Bear Options at Record as Wien Says Stocks to Rally

June 7, 2010

By Jeff Kearns and Rita Nazareth June 7 (Bloomberg) — Confidence in stocks is sinking to record lows in the options market even with the U.S. economy poised for its fastest growth in six years, a sign to Blackstone Group LP’s Byron Wien that it’s time to buy. Contracts that pay off should the benchmark index for U.S. stocks plunge more than 23 percent from its April high cost 75 percent more than those speculating on gains, the biggest premium ever, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and OptionMetrics LLC. The 10-day average difference exceeded 50 percent 34 times since 1996. In those cases, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained a median 7.2 percent in six months. Wien says the gap shows Europe’s debt crisis caused too much pessimism in the U.S., where S&P 500 companies are forecast to post 38 percent profit growth in two years. Rising demand for insurance shows investors unwilling to sell stocks have hedged against losses, according to New York-based Morgan Stanley. “People are trying to protect themselves and they are willing to overpay for it,” said Wien, 77, the Blackstone adviser who foresaw last year’s gains in stocks and oil and predicts the S&P 500 will rally to 1,300 before ending 2010 little changed. “Bearishness is high. The best time to buy stocks is when the level of bearishness is at a peak.” Bank of America Corp. and the Oil Services Holders Trust are among stocks with bearish options priced highest relative to bullish ones, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. So-called two-month skew for the Charlotte, North Carolina-based lender and the energy exchange-traded fund exceeds 38 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Employment Disappoints U.S. equities fell last week, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.3 percent to 1,064.88, as a Labor Department report showed private employers added 41,000 jobs in May, 77 percent fewer than the median forecasts of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The stock index extended its 2010 retreat to 4.5 percent. The gauge’s June futures lost 0.5 percent to 1,060.50 as of 7:40 a.m. in London. Profits for S&P 500 companies are projected to rise 17 percent in 2010 and 18 percent next year, estimates from more than 2,000 analysts compiled by Bloomberg show. The index trades at 13.1 times 2010 per-share earnings forecasts, compared with an average 16.4 times reported income since 1954. Economists predict gross domestic product will expand 3.2 percent this year, the most since 3.6 percent in 204, the data show. The 10-day average premium for options that pay off should the S&P 500 decline to 940 jumped to 75.7 percent on May 27 and remains within a percentage point of the record, based on data compiled by Bloomberg and OptionMetrics , a New York-based provider of options market data and analytics. A retreat to that level would represent a 23 percent drop from the April high, exceeding the 20 percent commonly defined as a bear market. ‘Paranoia Premium’ “When you see this much fear in the market, it’s probably the time to get a little more constructive and possibly look to putting money to work,” said Peter Sorrentino , who helps oversee $13.3 billion at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati. “The skew is too heavy. The paranoia premium has driven it up.” Billionaire Warren Buffett said in a press conference on May 1 that his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is ready to spend as much as $10 billion on an acquisition as the economy improves. Buffett, chief executive officer of the Omaha, Nebraska-based insurer and investment company made an “all-in wager” on the U.S. by paying $27 billion for Fort Worth, Texas-based railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. in February. Rally Signal When bearish puts cost 50 percent more than bullish calls, the S&P 500 rallied 28 times during the next six months and declined 6 times, according to OptionMetrics data going back to 1996 compiled by Bloomberg. The biggest gain started in November 1997, when the index rose 18 percent and the premium increased to 54.1 percent, data show. The S&P 500 plunged 35 percent after the skew reached 50.2 percent in June 2008. More than $1.9 trillion has been erased from American equities since April 23 on concern budget deficits in Greece, Portugal and Spain will spur bank losses and freeze lending. The S&P 500 slid 3.4 percent to a four-month low on June 4 following the jobs report and speculation that Hungary’s budget deficit may force a default. A group of U.S. financial companies posted the third- biggest retreat during the selloff since April, falling 16 percent. Energy and commodity producers both lost 17 percent. “The tail risk of a significant stock market correction is very high now, thus the option prices correctly reflect the cost of hedging against” a decline, Nouriel Roubini , the New York University professor who warned of a financial crisis in 2006, said in an e-mail on June 2. “Macro risks and financial risk are significantly rising.” Loss Protection Rising options costs suggest money managers are suffering smaller losses than are reflected in benchmark indexes after Europe’s crisis sent the S&P 500 down 8.2 percent in May, the biggest monthly slump since February 2009, said Christopher Metli , a derivatives strategist at Morgan Stanley. Hedge funds fell 2.6 percent last month, according to the HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index. That was the largest drop since November 2008, two months after New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed the biggest-ever bankruptcy. “The market’s telling you that investors are still bullish, and they’re hanging onto their positions, but they’re protecting through options,” Metli said. “Investors are worried about sovereign contagion, and the growth slowdown transmitting globally.” Traders are buying options on Bank of America amid the 1.9 percent rally in its stock this year. The second-biggest U.S. home lender behind San Francisco-based Wells Fargo & Co. said on June 2 that loan charge-offs may have peaked as demand improves. The company posted losses of about $9 billion in its mortgage unit since January 2008, Bloomberg data show. Transocean, Halliburton The Oil Services ETF has plunged 31 percent since April 23. The security is made up of companies such as Vernier, Switzerland-based Transocean Ltd. and Halliburton Co. and Schlumberger Ltd. in Houston that declined after U.S. President Barrack Obama proposed extending a moratorium on deepwater drilling. New York-based Citigroup Inc. was the fund’s biggest holder with 3.55 million shares, or 19 percent of those outstanding, as of March 31, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “It could be a buying opportunity,” said Wayne Lin , a money manager at Baltimore-based Legg Mason Inc., which manages $685 billion. “Stocks are at good value. Earnings are growing fairly strongly. Economic fundamentals are still strong, especially for the U.S., making it possible that the risks are overblown.” To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net ; Jeff Kearns in New York at jkearns3@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Euro Weakens Below $1.20 for First Time Since 2006 on Debt Crisis Concern

June 4, 2010

By Ben Levisohn and Catarina Saraiva June 5 (Bloomberg) — The euro tumbled for a second week against the dollar, falling to its lowest level in more than four years as concern that Europe’s debt crisis is spreading pushed investors to the safest currencies. Europe’s shared currency plunged below $1.20 for the first time since March 2006 and dropped for a sixth straight week versus the yen. The dollar and the yen climbed as a lower-than- forecast payrolls report yesterday fueled concern the U.S. economic recovery may be slowing, damping demand for growth- linked currencies. U.S. retail sales growth slowed to 0.2 percent in May, data next week may show. “There’s one driver of the market, and it’s called Europe,” said Marc Chandler , global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York. “Will budget cuts hurt European growth? Will Europe’s crisis hurt U.S. companies? Will contagion spread through the global financial system?” The euro dropped 2.5 percent to $1.1967 in New York, from $1.2273 on May 28. It touched $1.1956, the lowest level since March 2006. The 16-nation currency fell 1.6 percent to 109.98 yen, the biggest drop in three weeks, from 111.77. The dollar gained 0.9 percent to 91.90 yen, from 91.06 yen last week. Hungary is in a “grave situation” because the previous government “lied” about the economy, Peter Szijjarto , a spokesman for Prime Minister Viktor Orban , said yesterday. Hungary, whose forint tumbled 4 percent yesterday versus the dollar, needed a $24 billion bailout to avert default in 2008. Reminder of Greece “While Hungary is not the biggest economic power in the world, it reminds us so much of Greece,” said Dan Cook , senior market analyst at IG Markets Inc. in Chicago. “It creates a lot of concern, focused on the euro.” The cost to protect against default on Spanish government debt yesterday rose to a record 295.5 basis points, according to CMA DataVision prices. Credit-default swaps on Portugal were up 26 basis points to 364.8, and Italian swaps rose 30 basis points to a record high 264. The swaps pay a buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements. U.S. payrolls added 431,000 jobs in May after a gain of 290,000 in April, the Labor Department said yesterday. Economists in a Bloomberg News survey forecast a gain of 536,000. Temporary census jobs accounted for 411,000 positions. ‘Disappointed the Market’ “It was a weak payrolls report that significantly disappointed the market,” said Aroop Chatterjee , a currency strategist at Barclays Plc in New York. “It calls into question the thesis that the U.S. will be a pillar of support for global growth.” U.S. retail sales rose 0.2 percent in May after gaining 0.4 percent in April, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The Commerce Department reports the data on June 11. Australia’s dollar dropped 1.9 percent to 75.67 yen and South Africa’s rand fell 1.1 percent to 11.80 yen on speculation the debt crisis will force traders to unwind carry trades, in which they borrow money in countries with low interest rates to invest in higher-yielding assets. Japan’s 0.1 percent benchmark makes the yen a popular choice for funding such transactions. Europe’s banks will have to write off 195 billion euros ($237 billion) of bad debts by 2011, the European Central Bank said on May 31. CNBC reported yesterday that Societe Generale SA was the subject of unconfirmed rumors of a derivatives loss. The bank declined to comment. It is telling analysts it didn’t suffer losses on derivatives, said two people familiar with the matter who declined to be identified. “There are tensions in European banks that are dragging down banking stocks,” said Jens Nordvig , a managing director of currency research in New York at Nomura Holdings Inc. “We’re in the middle of a structural asset allocation shift out of the euro.” G-20 Finance Chiefs Group of 20 finance chiefs meeting in Busan, South Korea, yesterday signaled they will delay introducing new rules aimed at forcing banks to raise the quality and quantity of capital they hold to buffer against financial crisis. Euro area officials voiced concern haste would hurt economic growth. The euro has fallen 9.2 percent this year versus its developed-world counterparts, Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes show. French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said yesterday he’s “not worried” about the current euro-dollar exchange rate. The rate “didn’t reflect reality and was penalizing our exports,” he told reporters in Paris. ‘Tried-and-True Method’ Europe wants “the currency to weaken to generate growth, increase tax revenues and inflate its way out of debt,” said Andrew Busch , a Chicago-based global currency strategist at Bank of Montreal. “It’s a tried-and-true method to deal with massive debt problems.” The yen fell for a second week versus the greenback after Japan’s parliament approved making Naoto Kan the nation’s next leader, replacing Yukio Hatoyama , who resigned. “Kan has a far more interventionist attitude regarding currencies and has expressed his view that a weaker yen is favorable,” strategists at BNP Paribas wrote in a note to clients yesterday. “The prospect of intervention to weaken the currency is increasing.” To contact the reporters on this story: Ben Levisohn in New York at blevisohn@bloomberg.net ; Catarina Saraiva in New York at asaraiva5@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Recessions May Actually Be Good For Your Health, Say Economists

June 4, 2010

ORLANDO, Fla. — During recessions, idled factories spew less pollution and fewer people commuting to jobs means fewer traffic deaths. Laid-off workers have more time to exercise and cook for themselves and less money to eat out. All of these factors have led some economists over the past decade to overturn previous assumptions that recessions are bad for your health. They say economic downturns actually may be good for you. But an Associated Press analysis of economic data and death rate estimates from the past two years suggests that view may not be true for the most recent recession. In the latest downturn, at least, economic stress is linked to worse health. The reasons are obvious to Edward Hamm, a 46-year-old caddy in Orlando, whose work has slowed to a trickle. During the height of the economic downturn, he was diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes after weeks of being sick. He can’t find a job that provides health insurance because of Florida’s dismal unemployment rate of 12.3 percent. With no regular doctor, he gets sporadic treatment at a clinic run by the Orange County Health Department. “What do I do?” Hamm said recently outside the clinic in Orlando. “I don’t want it to get any worse.” It’s too early for anyone to claim they have a definitive answer on whether the current recession has helped or hurt health in the United States, given that the data is still being collected. The AP analysis looked at changes in death rate estimates provided by the U.S. Census from 2007 to 2009 compared to changes in the AP Economic Stress Index in every county and state during the same period. The analysis found that as economic stress went up, so did the death rate. The AP’s index calculates a score from 1 to 100 based on unemployment, foreclosure and bankruptcy rates. A higher score indicates more economic stress. The analysis showed that for every 6-point increase in a county’s AP Stress score, there was a 1-percent bump in the mortality rate estimate. While the Census death rate data are only estimates, and don’t pinpoint causes of death, older studies that have reached the same conclusion, point to increases in cardiovascular disease and suicides. Death rates often are used as an indicator of health, but they don’t capture the effects of illnesses or surgeries which can harm a person’s quality of life without killing him. There are visible reasons why economic downturns can make people’s health worse, proponents of this theory said. Lost jobs can mean lost health insurance. People without money to spare skimp on buying medication they need or can’t afford gym memberships. They are under higher stress. “These things are going to directly impact your health,” said Dr. Steve Cline, deputy state health director at the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services. Over the past decade, though, a growing body of research has suggested the opposite: that health improves during economic downturns and gets worse during economic expansions. That recent scholarship shows that air pollution goes down during recessions because there is less industrial activity. People smoke and drink less, eat out less and exercise a bit more, said Christopher Ruhm, an economist at the University of North Carolina-Greensboro, who has become one of the best-known proponents of this theory. In a paper that got researchers a decade ago rethinking how economic cycles influence health, Ruhm concluded that a 1-percentage-point rise in joblessness was associated with a half-percent decrease in the total death rate. “Part of the reason is that people may have extra time on their hands,” Ruhm said. “You can control the things you can control, so one of things you might do is live a little healthier deliberately.” The health improvements may be most noticeable in the very young and very old. At-risk infants are less likely to die because of less pollutant matter in the air, according to some researchers. Economist Ann Huff Stevens and her colleagues’ research has shown that during good economic times the death rates increase most among the elderly. Her theory is that during economic booms there are fewer qualified people to work in nursing homes because so many better-paying jobs are available. “Our suspicion is that it has something to do with labor shortages and quality of care in nursing homes,” said Huff Stevens, an economist at the University of California-Davis. “If you look at nursing homes, they are always talking about how hard it is to get help, especially when the economy is robust.” The fact that some studies have reached opposite conclusions may be because some health conditions respond more quickly to economic stress than others, said Janet Currie, an economist at Columbia University. “For instance, you might expect increases in heart attacks, strokes or high blood pressure, but no immediate increases in, say, cancer,” Currie said in an e-mail. For Susan Main, who lost her accounts-receivable job in September 2008, unemployment has given her more migraines and made her stomach acid reflex condition worse. The 48-year-old central Florida resident has less time to exercise since she spends her day filling out job applications and driving to interviews trying to find an administrative or human resources job. She was forced to give up her usual acid-reflex drug that was covered under her old insurance plan when she switched to her husband’s health plan, and she now has to use a less-effective drug. “I find I have less time to exercise and do healthy things like that,” Main said recently outside a job fair. “It’s very stressful.”

Read the full article →

U.S. Economy Payrolls Trail Forecasts in Sign Growth May Cool

June 4, 2010

By Shobhana Chandra June 4 (Bloomberg) — American companies hired fewer workers in May than forecast and workers dropped out of the labor force, indicating government support is still needed to spur economic growth. Private payrolls rose by 41,000, Labor Department figures showed today, trailing the 180,000 gain forecast by economists. Including government workers, employment rose by 431,000, boosted by a jump in hiring of temporary census workers. The jobless rate fell to 9.7 percent from 9.9 percent. Stocks fell and Treasuries surged as the report raised concern the world’s biggest economy was susceptible to shocks such as the European debt crisis. The figures may deal a blow to the Obama administration as the Congressional elections approach, and bolster forecasts the Federal Reserve will maintain its pledge to keep interest rates low for “an extended period.” “The labor market is extremely weak and has been in a mild recovery,” said Steven Wieting , managing director of economic and market analysis at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. “Policy makers need to be careful. No one should be taking stability for granted.” The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 2.2 percent to 1,078.9 at 12:27 p.m. in New York. The 10-year Treasury note rose, pushing the yield down to 3.21 percent from 3.37 percent late yesterday. Estimates of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News for total payrolls ranged from 220,000 to 750,000. Last month’s gain followed a 290,000 increase in April employment. Discouraged Workers Economists surveyed also forecast the jobless rate would fall 9.8 percent. Unemployment reached a 26-year high of 10.1 percent in October. The decrease in joblessness last month reflected a 322,000 drop in the labor force as Americans grew discouraged over hiring prospects. Temporary census jobs accounted for 411,000 of the May increase in payrolls, leaving the ex-census figure at 20,000. The hiring of temporary workers to conduct the decennial population count probably peaked last month, economists said. The unwinding of census employment may keep distorting the payroll figures for months as the government dismisses workers when the count is completed. For that reason, economists say private payrolls, which exclude government jobs, will be a better gauge of the state of the labor market for much of 2010. “Job growth is going to be anemic,” said Bill Gross , who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California. “It requires 150,000 to 200,000 jobs in order to reduce that unemployment rate, which is a key focus for the administration,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio’s Tom Keene on “Bloomberg on the Economy.” Obama on Jobs President Barack Obama said the employment report showed the economy was moving in the right direction. “While we recognize that our recovery is still in its early stages, and that there are going to be ups and downs in the months ahead — things never go completely in a smooth line — this report is a sign that our economy is getting stronger by the day,” the president said while visiting a truck factory in Hyattsville, Maryland. Manufacturing remained a bright spot as factories increased payrolls by 29,000 in May, a fifth straight gain. The average number of hours worked, overtime, and earnings also climbed. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday said joblessness is among the “important concerns” for the recovery. “One particularly difficult issue is the continued high rate of unemployment,” Bernanke said at a forum at the Chicago Fed’s Detroit office. “High unemployment imposes heavy costs on workers and their families, as well as on our society as a whole.” Cutting Staff Hewlett-Packard Co. , the world’s largest personal-computer maker based in Palo Alto, California, this week said it’ll slash about 3,000 jobs over several years. The slower pace of hiring came as colleges and universities began sending a wave of more than 1.6 million men and women with new bachelor’s degrees into the labor force. Analysts said the scramble for jobs may depress pay and handicap future career opportunities for the recent graduates. Not all the data today was bleak. Earnings per hour for those with jobs climbed 0.3 percent on average to $22.57 last month. Pay rose 1.9 percent from May 2009, up from a 1.8 percent increase in the year to April. “Today’s report may be the normal volatility seen in payroll jobs as the economy transitions from firing workers to hiring workers,” Chris Rupkey , chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UJF Ltd. in New York, said in a note to clients. “The labor markets are still in recovery mode.” The so-called underemployment rate — which includes part- time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want work but have given up looking — decreased to 16.6 percent from 17.1 percent. The number of temporary workers increased 31,000, an eighth consecutive gain. Employment at temporary-help agencies often picks up before companies take on permanent staff. To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Chris Curtin: Channel Enablement: Manufacturers and Retailers Pursuing Common Ground

June 4, 2010

Marketing professionals use a term called “channel enablement.” It’s the art and science of helping retailers sell your products — in the store and on the Web. In the past, channel enablement meant making sure the retailer had all the data sheets for your products. And ideally, they also had your shiny brochures and catalogs for the display racks. But shopping has changed. Shoppers do a great deal of online research to learn more and to save time and money. That means manufacturers and their retail partners must evolve their marketing and selling to cater to the preferences and behaviors of today’s shopper — both online and in the store. Yet, all the while, the overall goal remains the same: Making sure it’s easy to differentiate and buy their products. Replicating the in-store and online shopping experience Consumer research from industry groups and at companies like HP has revealed some interesting things about shoppers: There’s a difference between consumers and shoppers. Shoppers don’t read. They scan. Shoppers expect in-store “look and feel” to be similar to your Web site. They expect your Web site experience to to be interactive. Consumers are different from shoppers Retailers and manufacturers have typically thought of the people buying their products as consumers — people using their products. They would hire agencies to create marketing materials expounding product benefits and product usages without a great deal of consideration for the in-store environment. But research shows that when we shop, we have a different mindset and different needs than when we are using the product at home or in the office. When we go to the store, we begin shopping the moment we get out of our car. We want to find what we’re looking for amid a sea of products, all of them vying for our attention with the same bright colors and displays. It’s a sea of sameness. As shoppers, we want to easily find, learn about, differentiate and select our product with confidence. This requires manufacturers and retailers to change the way they market — they have to consider both the consumer of their products and the shopper of their products to effectively and efficiently satisfy their customers. Shoppers don’t read. They scan. Shoppers — online and in the store — want to quickly determine if a product is right for them. They don’t read word-for-word. They scan — words, sentences, paragraphs, entire pages — looking for the key specs and features that they need. This has major implications for how you present your information to shoppers — online and in-store. Shoppers need quick, easy-to-scan bullet points and bite-sized chunks of text — broken out in clearly labeled sections for easy scanning and understanding. Online and in-store “look and feel” should be the same Most people who buy consumer electronics do online research and then go to the store for the purchase. Research has shown that shoppers have good recall. They expect things to look the same in the store as they saw it online — the displays should look and feel just like your Web site. Shoppers don’t want to start the research all over again in the store after they’ve searched online. Bring the product to life online Beyond the value of speaking to a salesperson, people like to shop in the store because they can see and demo the product. Online shoppers want a similar experience — with detailed images from all angles and video demos detailing product features and benefits. Getting manufacturers and retailers on the same page Selling your products via retailers means using their channels — their stores and their Web sites. Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola for years have led the way in understanding the psychology of shoppers — and converting their channel partners into believers. In the retail world, this is also known as “shopper marketing.” Improving collaboration between manufacturers and retailers is the focus of a task force formed last year: the Retail Commission on Shopper Marketing . Strategic advisers to the commission include Campbell’s Soup, Clorox, Kimberly-Clark, and HP — the only consumer electronics company on the board. Convert your channel partners to shopper advocates Convincing your partners that you know how to ideally sell your products can sometimes be complicated. Here are some real-world things you can do in working with your channel partners: Do your research. Know your shoppers. Share your knowledge of shopper behavior — with the retail staff and, if possible, the retailer’s executives. Provide your retailer with product information for their Web site and stores in a format that you know your shoppers want. Be active in professional organizations like the In-store Marketing Institute and eMarketing Association . It’s a great way to build your knowledge and share best practices. Lead the change — the payoff is there. Think long-term and keep plugging away. Find retailer evangelists to help convince others in his or her organization. And remember: Know your shopper and keep it simple — online and in the store.

Read the full article →

Cohrs Set to Retire After Deutsche Bank Narrows M&ampA Gap With Goldman Sachs

June 3, 2010

By Jacqueline Simmons and Brett Foley June 4 (Bloomberg) — Michael Cohrs , co-head of investment banking at Deutsche Bank AG , is capping a 15-year career at the German lender just as it becomes a global leader in mergers and acquisitions. Deutsche Bank, which for years trailed Wall Street competitors in the mergers business, is the top takeover adviser in Europe, No. 3 in Asia, and fourth in the U.S., the biggest M&A market, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Globally, the Frankfurt-based bank ranks fourth. “We’ve been working at this for a decade,” said Cohrs, 53, in an interview at the firm’s offices in London’s financial district. “It’s an ongoing build-up, but people are taking us seriously as someone they trust for advice, not just someone to turn to for loans, debt, equity or asset finance.” Cohrs, who joined Deutsche Bank from S.G. Warburg in 1995 and has run investment banking with Anshu Jain since 2004, is planning to retire in coming weeks, Bloomberg Businessweek reports in its June 7 issue, citing two people with knowledge of the situation. Jain, 47, head of sales and trading, the bank’s biggest moneymaker, is likely to assume his responsibilities, which also include equity offerings and loan products, said the people, who asked not to be identified because an announcement hasn’t been made. Cohrs declined to discuss his departure. Deutsche Bank this year advised Qwest Communications International Inc. on its $10 billion sale to CenturyTel Inc., and worked with MetLife Inc. on the insurer’s purchase of American International Group Inc.’s Alico unit for $15.5 billion. It helped SAP AG buy Sybase Inc. for $5.3 billion. ‘Bulge Bracket’ The bank has worked on 79 takeovers this year valued at about $122 billion, Bloomberg data show. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is No. 1, with $156 billion of deals, followed by New York- based JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Zurich-based Credit Suisse Group AG. Morgan Stanley ranks fifth behind Deutsche Bank, according to the data. “Deutsche Bank has certainly joined the bulge bracket in terms of M&A,” said Scott Moeller , a professor at Cass Business School in London. “They will have to push hard to maintain their place and ensure the success is not just a flash in the pan. The established market leaders like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley aren’t going away.” Even as Deutsche Bank rises in the deal rankings, its fees from M&A trail competitors. The bank generated $210 million in revenue for merger advice at the end of April, compared with $543 million for Goldman Sachs and $434 million for JPMorgan, according to data from Freeman & Co. , a New York-based research firm. That may reflect situations where the bank got league table credit but had a lesser advisory role, said Jeffrey Nassof, an associate at Freeman. M&A Conundrum M&A remains a fraction of Deutsche Bank’s revenue , accounting for less than 2 percent of the total 9 billion euros ($11 billion) in the first quarter. “One of the conundrums is that while M&A may not be the biggest or most profitable business, it is clearly at the heart and soul of an investment bank because it signals the strength of your relationships,” said Cohrs, a former equities banker who worked for Goldman in New York and London from 1981 to 1991. Cohrs had originally timed his departure to coincide with the retirement of Deutsche Bank Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann , 62, who was scheduled to step down in May, according to people with knowledge of Cohrs’s plan. Ackermann agreed last year to stay for another three years because the board couldn’t agree on his successor . Next Generation Cohrs, an American who has an MBA from Harvard University, has been preparing new leaders within his global banking group since the end of last year. He appointed Jacques Brand , 49, and Stephan Leithner , 44, co-heads of global coverage, overseeing the firm’s investment bankers, and made M&A co-head Brett Olsher , 49, chairman of the global clients executive committee, in charge of leading relationships and transactions with clients. The financial crisis turned out to be a boon for Deutsche Bank’s M&A business, led by Olsher, an American, and Norwegian Henrik Aslaksen , 46. The firm was ninth in M&A in 2007, a year before the collapse of Bear Stearns Cos. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. ushered in a global credit crunch in which clients shied away from all but the safest financial companies. Unlike its biggest U.S. competitors, Deutsche Bank didn’t have to take a government bailout. It didn’t raise capital from shareholders as Barclays Plc and HSBC Holdings Plc did, or get investments from the sovereign wealth funds that Swiss rivals UBS AG and Credit Suisse turned to. “The crisis for us was quite good in some ways,” said Cohrs. “In the U.S., it meant that for the first time, we started to talk to people who hadn’t wanted to talk to us. People wanted to feel safe and secure.” Accelerating Hiring The crisis helped in another way: Deutsche Bank accelerated hiring as rivals went under or were acquired, luring 151 bankers for corporate finance since the end of 2007. Hires like William Curley and Anthony Viscardi , mortgage- finance specialists from Lehman Brothers, helped Deutsche Bank land roles with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. They advised Chairman Sheila Bair ’s team on the sale of IndyMac Bank to private investors last year and worked with the FDIC to find buyers for three Puerto Rican banks in April. Another recruit was Paul Stefanick , a former Merrill Lynch & Co. banker who joined in January 2009 after Merrill agreed to be sold to Bank of America Corp. Stefanick, who runs investment banking for industrial clients, landed a lead role advising Connecticut-based Stanley Works on its takeover last year of Black & Decker Corp. for $3.5 billion, a deal the companies had tried to pull off three times over about 27 years. ‘More Persistent’ Stefanick and his colleague Kirk Meighan sealed the deal when they convinced Stanley Works Chief Executive Officer John Lundgren and Chief Operating Officer Jim Loree that a decline in the companies’ combined market capitalization to $4 billion made the $2.4 billion of potential savings from a transaction all the more valuable, Loree said. “That was the moment the light bulb went on,” Loree said in an interview. Stefanick and Meighan, who advised Stanley Works alongside Goldman, “were just more persistent and very proactive in putting the opportunity in front of us,” said Loree. Deutsche Bank had no lending relationship with Stanley Works before the deal, underscoring its increasing ability to win M&A business because of relationships with CEOs instead of relying on its 1.67 trillion-euro balance sheet . About 30 percent of Deutsche Bank’s top 500 clients don’t have lending relationships with the bank, said Cohrs. Human Capital “They’ve made big investments in human capital and that’s paying dividends,” said Scott Simpson , co-head of Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP’s global transactions group, which includes M&A. “They’ve had a balance sheet they can use, but they also recruited very good bankers.” The challenge will be retaining them as the market recovers and competition for talent intensifies, said Ingo Walter , a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business . Recently, Deutsche Bank has lost senior bankers to firms including Nomura Holdings Inc., the Japanese brokerage investing 250 billion yen ($2.7 billion) to expand in the U.S. Michael Hill , Deutsche Bank’s former co-head of global natural resources, quit last week for Nomura, following Mark Epley , who had run the bank’s team advising private-equity firms. “Deutsche Bank has grown very fast and hired a lot of people from outside,” said New York University’s Walter. “If there are lots of external opportunities, there can be a ‘why stay’ mentality and you’ll see that kind of departure when the market is good.” To contact the reporters on this story: Jacqueline Simmons in Paris at jackiem@bloomberg.net Brett Foley in London at bfoley8@bloomberg.net ;

Read the full article →

Deutsche Bank’s Cohrs to Retire After Narrowing M&ampA Gap With Goldman Sachs

June 3, 2010

By Jacqueline Simmons and Brett Foley June 4 (Bloomberg) — Michael Cohrs , co-head of investment banking at Deutsche Bank AG , is capping a 15-year career at the German lender just as it becomes a global leader in mergers and acquisitions. Deutsche Bank, which for years trailed Wall Street competitors in the mergers business, is the top takeover adviser in Europe, No. 3 in Asia, and fourth in the U.S., the biggest M&A market, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Globally, the Frankfurt-based bank ranks fourth. “We’ve been working at this for a decade,” said Cohrs, 53, in an interview at the firm’s offices in London’s financial district. “It’s an ongoing build-up, but people are taking us seriously as someone they trust for advice, not just someone to turn to for loans, debt, equity or asset finance.” Cohrs, who joined Deutsche Bank from S.G. Warburg in 1995 and has run investment banking with Anshu Jain since 2004, is planning to retire in coming weeks, Bloomberg Businessweek reports in its June 7 issue, citing two people with knowledge of the situation. Jain, 47, head of sales and trading, the bank’s biggest moneymaker, is likely to assume his responsibilities, which also include equity offerings and loan products, said the people, who asked not to be identified because an announcement hasn’t been made. Cohrs declined to discuss his departure. Deutsche Bank this year advised Qwest Communications International Inc. on its $10 billion sale to CenturyTel Inc., and worked with MetLife Inc. on the insurer’s purchase of American International Group Inc.’s Alico unit for $15.5 billion. It helped SAP AG buy Sybase Inc. for $5.3 billion. ‘Bulge Bracket’ The bank has worked on 79 takeovers this year valued at about $122 billion, Bloomberg data show. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is No. 1, with $156 billion of deals, followed by New York- based JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Zurich-based Credit Suisse Group AG. Morgan Stanley ranks fifth behind Deutsche Bank, according to the data. “Deutsche Bank has certainly joined the bulge bracket in terms of M&A,” said Scott Moeller , a professor at Cass Business School in London. “They will have to push hard to maintain their place and ensure the success is not just a flash in the pan. The established market leaders like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley aren’t going away.” Even as Deutsche Bank rises in the deal rankings, its fees from M&A trail competitors. The bank generated $210 million in revenue for merger advice at the end of April, compared with $543 million for Goldman Sachs and $434 million for JPMorgan, according to data from Freeman & Co. , a New York-based research firm. That may reflect situations where the bank got league table credit but had a lesser advisory role, said Jeffrey Nassof, an associate at Freeman. M&A Conundrum M&A remains a fraction of Deutsche Bank’s revenue , accounting for less than 2 percent of the total 9 billion euros ($11 billion) in the first quarter. “One of the conundrums is that while M&A may not be the biggest or most profitable business, it is clearly at the heart and soul of an investment bank because it signals the strength of your relationships,” said Cohrs, a former equities banker who worked for Goldman in New York and London from 1981 to 1991. Cohrs had originally timed his departure to coincide with the retirement of Deutsche Bank Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann , 62, who was scheduled to step down in May, according to people with knowledge of Cohrs’s plan. Ackermann agreed last year to stay for another three years because the board couldn’t agree on his successor . Next Generation Cohrs, an American who has an MBA from Harvard University, has been preparing new leaders within his global banking group since the end of last year. He appointed Jacques Brand , 49, and Stephan Leithner , 44, co-heads of global coverage, overseeing the firm’s investment bankers, and made M&A co-head Brett Olsher , 49, chairman of the global clients executive committee, in charge of leading relationships and transactions with clients. The financial crisis turned out to be a boon for Deutsche Bank’s M&A business, led by Olsher, an American, and Norwegian Henrik Aslaksen , 46. The firm was ninth in M&A in 2007, a year before the collapse of Bear Stearns Cos. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. ushered in a global credit crunch in which clients shied away from all but the safest financial companies. Unlike its biggest U.S. competitors, Deutsche Bank didn’t have to take a government bailout. It didn’t raise capital from shareholders as Barclays Plc and HSBC Holdings Plc did, or get investments from the sovereign wealth funds that Swiss rivals UBS AG and Credit Suisse turned to. “The crisis for us was quite good in some ways,” said Cohrs. “In the U.S., it meant that for the first time, we started to talk to people who hadn’t wanted to talk to us. People wanted to feel safe and secure.” Accelerating Hiring The crisis helped in another way: Deutsche Bank accelerated hiring as rivals went under or were acquired, luring 151 bankers for corporate finance since the end of 2007. Hires like William Curley and Anthony Viscardi , mortgage- finance specialists from Lehman Brothers, helped Deutsche Bank land roles with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. They advised Chairman Sheila Bair ’s team on the sale of IndyMac Bank to private investors last year and worked with the FDIC to find buyers for three Puerto Rican banks in April. Another recruit was Paul Stefanick , a former Merrill Lynch & Co. banker who joined in January 2009 after Merrill agreed to be sold to Bank of America Corp. Stefanick, who runs investment banking for industrial clients, landed a lead role advising Connecticut-based Stanley Works on its takeover last year of Black & Decker Corp. for $3.5 billion, a deal the companies had tried to pull off three times over about 27 years. ‘More Persistent’ Stefanick and his colleague Kirk Meighan sealed the deal when they convinced Stanley Works Chief Executive Officer John Lundgren and Chief Operating Officer Jim Loree that a decline in the companies’ combined market capitalization to $4 billion made the $2.4 billion of potential savings from a transaction all the more valuable, Loree said. “That was the moment the light bulb went on,” Loree said in an interview. Stefanick and Meighan, who advised Stanley Works alongside Goldman, “were just more persistent and very proactive in putting the opportunity in front of us,” said Loree. Deutsche Bank had no lending relationship with Stanley Works before the deal, underscoring its increasing ability to win M&A business because of relationships with CEOs instead of relying on its 1.67 trillion-euro balance sheet . About 30 percent of Deutsche Bank’s top 500 clients don’t have lending relationships with the bank, said Cohrs. Human Capital “They’ve made big investments in human capital and that’s paying dividends,” said Scott Simpson , co-head of Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP’s global transactions group, which includes M&A. “They’ve had a balance sheet they can use, but they also recruited very good bankers.” The challenge will be retaining them as the market recovers and competition for talent intensifies, said Ingo Walter , a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business . Recently, Deutsche Bank has lost senior bankers to firms including Nomura Holdings Inc., the Japanese brokerage investing 250 billion yen ($2.7 billion) to expand in the U.S. Michael Hill , Deutsche Bank’s former co-head of global natural resources, quit last week for Nomura, following Mark Epley , who had run the bank’s team advising private-equity firms. “Deutsche Bank has grown very fast and hired a lot of people from outside,” said New York University’s Walter. “If there are lots of external opportunities, there can be a ‘why stay’ mentality and you’ll see that kind of departure when the market is good.” To contact the reporters on this story: Jacqueline Simmons in Paris at jackiem@bloomberg.net Brett Foley in London at bfoley8@bloomberg.net ;

Read the full article →

Asian Stocks Rise, Default Risk Falls on U.S. Home, Car Sales Yen Weakens

June 2, 2010

By Akiko Ikeda and Masaki Kondo June 3 (Bloomberg) — Asian stocks rallied the most in more than three months, oil gained and bond risk fell as rising sales of U.S. homes and cars bolstered confidence in the global economy. The Japanese yen weakened for a second day. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 2.3 percent to 113.25 as of 11:32 a.m. in Tokyo, the most since Feb. 22. Oil for July delivery climbed 1 percent to $73.58 a barrel after an industry report showed a decline in U.S. crude inventories. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.3 percent today, after the index surged 2.6 percent yesterday. Asian stocks are recovering, following the biggest drop in 19 months in May, as the U.S. industry reports indicated a recovery in consumer demand, before data due today that will probably show an improving job market. Japanese investors bought a net 1.17 trillion yen ($12.7 billion) in overseas debt during the week ended May 28 and 276 billion yen in foreign stocks, Ministry of Finance data showed. “The data provides assurance that the U.S. economy is improving and that’s boosting investor sentiment,” said Yoshihiro Ito , a senior strategist at Okasan Asset Management Co., which oversees about $10 billion in Tokyo. “Technical indicators show that the recent declines are excessive and investors are hunting for bargains.” The MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s 14-day relative strength index , which measures how rapidly prices have risen or fallen, closed at 33 yesterday, near the 30 threshold that some investors use as a signal to buy. The index dropped almost 10 percent in May. Canon, Nissan Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 2.7 percent, South Korea’s Kospi index climbed 1.5 percent and Taiwan’s Taiex index climbed 1.9 percent. An index of pending U.S. home resales rose 6 percent in April, the National Association of Realtors said, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. U.S. companies created 70,000 jobs in May, according to a separate survey before the data’s release from ADP Employer Services today. Canon Inc. , a camera maker that gets about 80 percent of its revenue outside Japan, gained 3.9 percent. Nissan Motor Co., Japan’s third-largest automaker, rose 4.5 percent after reporting a 24 percent increase in U.S. car sales in May from a year earlier. Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s biggest carmaker, climbed 3.3 percent after posting a 6.7 percent sales gain. Kia Motors Corp. , South Korea’s second-biggest automaker, advanced 2.3 percent after U.S. sales rose 21 percent last month. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. , whose clients include Qualcomm Inc., gained 1.5 percent. Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. , which assembles Apple Inc.’s iPhones, climbed 3.4 percent. Yen Weakened The yen weakened against all of its major counterparts as political uncertainty in Japan and signs the U.S. economy is gaining traction tilted demand toward higher-yielding assets. The currency weakened 0.5 percent to 113.42 per euro and 0.1 percent to 92.24 per dollar, after dropping 1.3 percent yesterday. The euro rallied to $1.2289 from $1.2249 yesterday. It touched $1.2111 on June 1, the lowest level since April 2006. “Once investors shift their attention back to the fundamentals, which are still signaling solid improvement, there is no strong reason to buy the yen,” said Morio Okayasu , chief analyst in Tokyo at FOREX.com Japan Co., a unit of the online currency trading firm Gain Capital in Bedminster, New Jersey. “Underlying demand for higher-yielding assets outside Japan remains strong.” The Japanese currency fell against most major counterparts yesterday on speculation Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama will be succeeded by Finance Minister Naoto Kan , who has called for the Bank of Japan to do more to fight deflation. “Kan, or whoever the successor is, won’t try to talk up the value of the yen,” said Kazumasa Yamaoka , a senior analyst in Tokyo at GCI Capital Co., an investment advisory company. “The market is looking to see a weaker yen.” Political Upheaval The South Korean won rose 0.8 percent to 1,206.65 per dollar. JPMorgan Chase & Co. yesterday raised the nation’s equities to “overweight” and said the won is one of the “most undervalued” emerging-market currencies. The cost of insuring Asia-Pacific bonds from non-payment dropped, according to traders of credit-default swaps. The Markit iTraxx Asia index of 50 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan declined 10 basis points to 135, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. Wells Fargo & Co. advanced 3.4 percent yesterday after saying consumer credit began to improve last November. Bank of America Corp. jumped 3 percent after Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan said loan demand is stabilizing. Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange climbed as much as 1.4 percent to $6,760 a metric ton on global growth optimism. Nickel advanced as much as 2.8 percent to $20,200, lead rose 2.9 percent to $1,745 and zinc also gained 2.9 percent to $1,855. To contact the reporters on this story: Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net ; Akiko Ikeda in Tokyo at iakiko@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →