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Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Bullish Rating agency Standard & Poor’s looks to spark market-wide risk trend with broad EZ downgrades Eight-month high in confidence, drawing …

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US Dollar Ready to Break to 12 Month Highs if Euro Collapses

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Hawkish RBA Governor Statements Propels Australian Dollar

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Hawkish RBA Governor Statements Propels Australian Dollar

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Euro Plunging and Dollar Rallying, How Long Will this Run Last?

June 11, 2011

Euro Plunging and Dollar Rallying, How Long Will this Run Last?

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US Dollar Likely to Fall Further as NFPs Disappoint, USD Yields Tumble

June 4, 2011

US Dollar Likely to Fall Further as NFPs Disappoint, USD Yields Tumble

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FOREX: Dollar Slides on Disappointing NFPs but Risk Shift May Soon Change That

June 4, 2011

FOREX: Dollar Slides on Disappointing NFPs but Risk Shift May Soon Change That

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FOREX: Dollar and S&P 500 Charged for NFPs but is this the Indicator to Spark a Major Reversal?

June 3, 2011

FOREX: Dollar and S&P 500 Charged for NFPs but is this the Indicator to Spark a Major Reversal?

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FOREX: Dollar May Gain as S&P 500 Futures Show Traders Bet on Weak US Jobs Data

June 3, 2011

FOREX: Dollar May Gain as S&P 500 Futures Show Traders Bet on Weak US Jobs Data

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Australian Dollar To Be Heavily Influenced By RBA Rate Decision

June 3, 2011

Australian Dollar To Be Heavily Influenced By RBA Rate Decision

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US Dollar Rebounds as Risk Aversion Sinks S&P 500, Crude Oil Prices

June 2, 2011

US Dollar Rebounds as Risk Aversion Sinks S&P 500, Crude Oil Prices

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FOREX: Dollar to Extend Gains as Risk Aversion Continues in European Trade

June 2, 2011

FOREX: Dollar to Extend Gains as Risk Aversion Continues in European Trade

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Speculative Sentiment Index May be Pointing to a Bearish Bias for the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (INDEXDJX: USDOLLAR)

June 1, 2011

Speculative Sentiment Index May be Pointing to a Bearish Bias for the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (INDEXDJX: USDOLLAR)

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ISM Manufacturing Disappoints- Dollar Heavy

June 1, 2011

ISM Manufacturing Disappoints- Dollar Heavy

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Alan Schram: Why Gold is Rising

May 31, 2011

Gold prices have been rising, and many experts cite demand from the growing economies of China and India as the reason. But that’s wrong. Gold is trading higher because of loose monetary policy and the purposeful devaluation of the US dollar. Since gold generates no cash flows, and in fact ownership costs money (storage, and perhaps insurance), divining its value is really impossible. Gold, the “barbarous relic”, as Keynes referred to it, is worth what others will pay for it, by definition a speculative non-investment. Yet Gold has historically been a reliable store of value. An ounce of gold has been worth about 15 barrels of oil for decades. An ounce of gold at $1,500 in 2011 buys 15 barrels of oil at $100 each, much as a $500 ounce of gold bought 15 barrels of oil at $30 in 1981. The changes in the nominal price of gold simply reflect the persistent weakness of the dollar, as the US has been pursuing policies that virtually guarantee a weaker currency. While gold’s nominal price has been going up, as has almost everything else except housing, its real purchasing power has remained constant. In that context, it is interesting that Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke warned Congress recently to raise the debt-ceiling, lest the federal government won’t be able to pay its bills. Rather than default, Treasury prefers to pay the interest due on the national debt with a gradually weakening currency, as a way to shed the onerous burden the country has accumulated. Yet for all practical purposes this policy of devaluation is not much different from formal default. Recall that the dollar, a concept designed to measure real wealth, has lost more than 97% of its value over the past four decades, as an ounce of gold went from $35 in 1971 to $1,530 today. Pursuing this course of weakening currency has certain pernicious side effects, not the least of which is mis-allocation of capital. Take the money now flowing into the commodity producers. The weak dollar led almost all commodities to trade at nominal highs, but this is an illusion. Commodity rich countries are enjoying prosperity, but this is part of a regular boom and bust cycle, and the bust never fails to arrive. Once the inevitable tightening comes, this chimera will all go away. Or take the last financial crisis as another example. During the boom years, egged on by low interest rates, Americans borrowed incorrigibly, usually against higher home values. The percentage of income saved reached a low of 1% in 2005. When housing prices fell in 2008, so did consumer spending. The deleveraging of the American economy then ended the bubble, made credit sparse and severely curtailed buying habits. This illusion of a plethora of money also gave us low treasury yields, indicating markets are not worried about inflation. But the treasuries’ market has had massive intervention by the Federal Reserve, so that price level is artificial. Lower interest rates and weak dollar distort the capital allocation process and gold is riding that wave. To me, the most interesting aspect of this diversion of capital is how involved the general public has been. Clearly gold ETF’s have become a very popular investing tool. But when the notoriously perspicacious George Soros is selling gold (as he has been recently) and Mrs. Jones in Iowa is buying, you have to wonder who is going to end up regretting it. Alan Schram is the Managing Partner of Wellcap Partners, a Los Angeles based investment firm. Email at aschram@wellcappartners.com.

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FOREX: Yen Falls on Rating Cut Threat, Dollar Sold Amid Easing EU Debt Fears

May 31, 2011

FOREX: Yen Falls on Rating Cut Threat, Dollar Sold Amid Easing EU Debt Fears

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Loonie Surges on BoC- Dollar Softness Remains

May 31, 2011

Loonie Surges on BoC- Dollar Softness Remains

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Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index Correlation to DJIA at Record Strength

May 31, 2011

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index Correlation to DJIA at Record Strength

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S&P 500, Crude Oil Positioning Hint US Dollar Rebound Ahead

May 30, 2011

S&P 500, Crude Oil Positioning Hint US Dollar Rebound Ahead

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FOREX: Dollar and Yen Rise, Euro Falls Amid Renewed Greece Debt Fears

May 30, 2011

FOREX: Dollar and Yen Rise, Euro Falls Amid Renewed Greece Debt Fears

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US Dollar Poised for Major Volatility, Breakout Strategies Attractive

May 30, 2011

US Dollar Poised for Major Volatility, Breakout Strategies Attractive

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The Dollar’s Pain May Ease Next Week, But not Because of NFPs

May 28, 2011

The Dollar’s Pain May Ease Next Week, But not Because of NFPs

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FOREX: Dollar – Expect Little from NFPs, Keep a Wary Eye on the S&P 500 and Talk of the QE2 Expiration

May 28, 2011

FOREX: Dollar – Expect Little from NFPs, Keep a Wary Eye on the S&P 500 and Talk of the QE2 Expiration

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Canadian Dollar to Rise as Ahead of GDP Report, Rate Decision

May 28, 2011

Canadian Dollar to Rise as Ahead of GDP Report, Rate Decision

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US Consumer Spending Misses Expectations- Dollar Heavy

May 27, 2011

US Consumer Spending Misses Expectations- Dollar Heavy

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Swissie Hits All-time Highs- Dollar Suffers

May 27, 2011

Swissie Hits All-time Highs- Dollar Suffers

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US Dollar Health Depends on the S&P 500 First and QE2 Second

May 27, 2011

US Dollar Health Depends on the S&P 500 First and QE2 Second

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FOREX: Dollar Losses Ground as Stocks Rise Ahead of US GDP Revision

May 26, 2011

FOREX: Dollar Losses Ground as Stocks Rise Ahead of US GDP Revision

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Guest Commentary: Dollar Index On the Technical Cusp

May 26, 2011

Guest Commentary: Dollar Index On the Technical Cusp

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US Dollar Index Losses Continue after Breaking Key Support

May 26, 2011

US Dollar Index Losses Continue after Breaking Key Support

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FOREX: Dollar Rally Curbed as Sentiment Recovers from its Dive, Data Comes Up Short

May 25, 2011

FOREX: Dollar Rally Curbed as Sentiment Recovers from its Dive, Data Comes Up Short

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Risk aversion support the dollar and the yen

May 25, 2011

Risk aversion support the dollar and the yen

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FOREX: US Dollar Builds on Gains Amid Risk Aversion, UK GDP on Tap

May 25, 2011

FOREX: US Dollar Builds on Gains Amid Risk Aversion, UK GDP on Tap

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US Dollar Outlook Remains Bullish on Futures, Options Sentiment

May 25, 2011

US Dollar Outlook Remains Bullish on Futures, Options Sentiment

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US Dollar Index Eases Ahead of GDP Report- Channel Holds

May 25, 2011

US Dollar Index Eases Ahead of GDP Report- Channel Holds

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FOREX: Dollar to Retreat as Risk Appetite Recovers, Pound Drops on Bank Downgrade Fears

May 24, 2011

FOREX: Dollar to Retreat as Risk Appetite Recovers, Pound Drops on Bank Downgrade Fears

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US Dollar Gets Support as Eurozone Problems Continue

May 24, 2011

US Dollar Gets Support as Eurozone Problems Continue

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FOREX TREND MONITOR: Dollar Roars Back as EU Debt Crisis Compounds Risk Aversion

May 24, 2011

FOREX TREND MONITOR: Dollar Roars Back as EU Debt Crisis Compounds Risk Aversion

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Australian Dollar At Risk Of Bearish Breakout, Swiss Franc Maintains Major Trend

May 24, 2011

Australian Dollar At Risk Of Bearish Breakout, Swiss Franc Maintains Major Trend

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State Legalizes Gold, Silver Coins As Currency

May 23, 2011

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah legislators want to see the dollar regain its former glory, back to the days when one could literally bank on it being “as good as gold.” To make that point, they’ve turned it around, and made gold as good as cash. Utah became the first state in the country this month to legalize gold and silver coins as currency. The law also will exempt the sale of the coins from state capital gains taxes. Craig Franco hopes to cash in on it with his Utah Gold and Silver Depository, and he thinks others will soon follow. The idea is simple: Store your gold and silver coins in a vault, and Franco issues a debit-like card to make purchases backed by your holdings. He plans to open for business June 1, likely the first of its kind in the country. “Because we’re dealing with something so forward thinking, I expect a wait-and-see attitude,” Franco said. “Once the depository is executed and transactions can occur, then I think people will move into the marketplace.” The idea was spawned by Republican state Rep. Brad Galvez, who sponsored the bill largely to serve as a protest against Federal Reserve monetary policy. Galvez says Americans are losing faith in the dollar. If you’re mad about government debt, ditch the cash. Spend your gold and silver, he says. His idea isn’t to return to the gold standard, when the dollar was backed by gold instead of government goodwill. Instead, he just wanted to create options for consumers. “We’re too far down the road to go back to the gold standard,” Galvez said. “This will move us toward an alternative currency.” Earlier this month, Minnesota took a step closer to joining Utah in making gold and silver legal tender. A Republican lawmaker there introduced a bill that sets up a special committee to explore the option. North Carolina, Idaho and at least nine other states also have similar bills drafted. At the moment, Franco’s idea would generally be the only practical use of the law in Utah, given the legislation doesn’t require merchants to accept the coins, either at face value – $50 for a 1-ounce gold coin – or market value, currently almost $1,500 per ounce. And no one expects people will be walking around town with pockets full of gold and silver. Matt Zeman, market strategist for Kingsview Financial in Chicago, expects more people will start investing in gold as America’s growing debt and bankruptcies in other countries continue to decrease the value of government-backed money. “You’ve seen gold replacing these currencies as safety instruments,” Zeman said. “If I don’t feel good about the dollar or other currencies, I’m putting my money in precious metals.” Some supporters, including the law’s sponsor, seek to push Congress toward removing the tax burdens that discourage use of the coins, such as a federal capital gains tax. “Making gold and silver coins legal tender sends a strong signal to Congress and the Federal Reserve that their monetary policy is failing,” said Ralph Danker, project director for economics at the Washington, D.C.-based American Principles in Action, which helped shape Utah’s law. “The dollar should be backed by gold and silver, so we have hard money.” The U.S. and many other countries largely abandoned gold-backed money during World War II because they needed to print more cash to pay for the war. Later, during the Great Depression, President Franklin D. Roosevelt took steps that essentially prohibited gold and silver as legal currency to prevent hoarding. In 1971, President Nixon formally abandoned the gold standard. Fifteen years later, the U.S. Mint began producing the gold and silver American Eagle coins, primarily aimed at investment portfolios and allowing people to trade them at market value but with capital gains taxes on profits. Utah is now allowing the coins to be used as legal tender while levying no taxes. Opponents of the law warn such a policy shift nationwide could increase the prospect of inflation and could destabilize international markets by removing the government’s flexibility to quickly adjust currency prices. “We’d be going backward in financial development,” said Carlos Sanchez, director of Commodities Management for The CPM Group in New York. “What backs currency is confidence in a government’s ability to pay debt, its government system and its economy.” Larry Hilton, a Utah attorney who helped draft the law, disagrees and says the gold standard would restore faith in American money at a time when spiraling debt is weakening confidence. “We view this as a dollar-friendly measure,” Hilton said. “It will strengthen the dollar by refocusing policy matters in Washington on what led to the phrase, `the dollar is as good as gold.’” .

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FOREX: US Dollar to Extend Gains on Euro Zone Debt Fears, QE2 Expiry

May 23, 2011

FOREX: US Dollar to Extend Gains on Euro Zone Debt Fears, QE2 Expiry

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FOREX: US Dollar to Extend Gains on Euro Zone Debt Fears, QE2 Expiry

May 23, 2011

FOREX: US Dollar to Extend Gains on Euro Zone Debt Fears, QE2 Expiry

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Yen falls against the dollar after the entry of Japan into recession

May 23, 2011

Yen falls against the dollar after the entry of Japan into recession

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Canadian Dollar Eyes 0.9900, Swiss Franc to Threaten Major Trend

May 23, 2011

Canadian Dollar Eyes 0.9900, Swiss Franc to Threaten Major Trend

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US Dollar Likely to See Continued Breakouts vs Euro, Canadian Dollar

May 23, 2011

US Dollar Likely to See Continued Breakouts vs Euro, Canadian Dollar

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US Dollar Maintains Ascending Channel Trade- Index Hits 6 ½ Week High

May 23, 2011

US Dollar Maintains Ascending Channel Trade- Index Hits 6 ½ Week High

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Video: Yu Sees Dollar Gains on Further Euro Zone Challenges

May 22, 2011

May 23 (Bloomberg) — Geoffrey Yu, a currency strategist at UBS AG, talks about the outlook for the dollar and Federal Reserve monetary policy.¶¶ He also discusses the impact of the European debt crisis on the euro and his top trade. Yu speaks with Bloomberg’s Oliver Joy.

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US Dollar Rally to Resume as QE2 Expiry Looms Ever Closer

May 22, 2011

US Dollar Rally to Resume as QE2 Expiry Looms Ever Closer

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FOREX: Major Currencies Consolidate, Dollar to Resume Rally Next Week

May 20, 2011

FOREX: Major Currencies Consolidate, Dollar to Resume Rally Next Week

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Euro Tumbles Against US Dollar as Norway Suspends Greece Aid

May 20, 2011

Euro Tumbles Against US Dollar as Norway Suspends Greece Aid

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Canadian Dollar Weakness To Gather Pace, Exposing Key Levels

May 20, 2011

Canadian Dollar Weakness To Gather Pace, Exposing Key Levels

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Australian Dollar Tracks Gold Prices, Short-Term Risks Favor Gains

May 20, 2011

Australian Dollar Tracks Gold Prices, Short-Term Risks Favor Gains

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