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Glenn Hubbard: A Marshall Plan for the Middle East?

February 28, 2011

The recent and current upheavals in the Middle East mark a good moment for the United States to rethink its economic aid to the region. Over the past twenty years, the Middle East has been the largest recipient of U.S. economic assistance — but to what result? From the perspective of promoting local business, American aid has been a failure. For example, Egypt ranks #94 on the World Bank’s Doing Business Index , in the bottom half of the total list of 183 countries. Looking at components of the Index, Egypt makes it difficult for its own citizens to start and run businesses. U.S. aid to Egypt has done little to change that. The problem is especially acute for informal businesses expanding into the formal sector: on the two key indicators of “Dealing with construction permits” and “Enforcing contracts,” Egypt ranks #154 and #143, respectively. Small businesses especially face a corrupt administrative and legal system full of obstacles that only bribes can bypass. Recall that these recent upheavals in the Arab world began when a small businessperson in Tunisia set himself on fire to protest just such obstacles. U.S. economic aid to the Middle East has mostly funded government infrastructure projects and food aid — neither of which helps small and medium sized local business. More recently, it funded NGO projects, too. In general, economic aid to the region has been no different from U.S. aid to other low-income countries, especially in Africa, with similar poor results. But all prosperous countries of the world got that way not through government infrastructure, food aid, or NGO projects, but through the growth of a domestic business sector. India and China are only the most recent examples. Like it or not, a thriving local business sector is the only path to prosperity and stability the world has ever known. We find a similar story across the region. Oil-rich countries, of course, receive little or no U.S. economic assistance. Elsewhere, American economic aid in the Middle East has failed to help local business. That includes the two newest large aid programs, in Iraq and Afghanistan: despite billions spent in the last decade on economic assistance, they rank #166 and #167 out of 183 countries on the Doing Business list. The Iraqi and Afghani governments essentially prevent local citizens from starting and running businesses, yet American economic aid continues to pour into the country, with the usual poor results. Even in Egypt, where reforms over the past decade have helped a few large Egyptian companies thrive, with a well-functioning stock exchange to facilitate large-firm financing and investment. But there are only 663 listed companies, for a population of 83 million. The missing middle — small and medium-scale business — is Egypt’s main economic problem. Education over recent decades has developed a deep pool of skilled labor among the young, but without a thriving local business sector, the Egyptian economy can never absorb young workers. But there is a successful precedent for U.S. aid to help the local business sector of foreign nations — the Marshall Plan for postwar Europe. The program made loans to local European businesses, which repaid the loans to a national fund, which then used the money for commercial infrastructure to further help those same local businesses. In order to qualify for the program, each country had to make reforms that allowed their business sectors to function, just as the Doing Business Index shows. That program is exactly the kind of aid the Middle East really needs. And the basic Marshall model offers many variations: the kinds of loans can vary widely, and the commercial infrastructure can range from training for accountants to the more traditional ports and roads. Of course, postwar Europe had a stronger tradition of local business than the Middle East does now. But one of the most successful Marshall Plan countries was Greece, which in 1947 was poor and lacked a local business sector. And all Middle East countries had small but thriving business sectors in the recent past, before the current crop of authoritarian regimes crushed it. Again, Egypt is a striking example: Nasser socialized the economy in the 1950s and 1960s, but starting in the 1990s, Egypt has slowly dismantled parts its state-run economy in favor of a normal business sector. A Marshall Plan for Egypt is the best way for American aid to help that process. Such aid to the local business sector is also an important tool to limit the spread of Islamic extremism, which several Middle East regimes have used an iron fist to suppress. Only a thriving business middle class offers a stable foundation for a democratic alternative. Turkey is the most striking example, where a pro-business Islamic government has fostered a democratic middle class. Turkey has evolved from the same kind of state-run, authoritarian system as other Middle East nations, and now ranks #65 on the Doing Business Index, between the Czech Republic and Poland. After all, remember the origin of the Marshall Plan. At the time, Secretary of State George Marshall proposed that the best way to fight the spread of communism in Europe was through local business. That strategy can contribute to the battle against Islamic extremism as well. Egypt’s current aid program should become an Egyptian Marshall Plan, and help give Egypt the stable, democratic middle class it has needed all along. Unfortunately, it will not be easy to convert the current U.S. aid program to the Middle East into a modern Marshall Plan. Despite its past failures, the current aid system features a system of entrenched interests that are resistant to any changes. Some anti-American sentiment by some of the recent protesters came from the support that the current aid system gave to the regime. The popular call for change across the Middle East is a good moment for a change in the aid system to the region as well. Mr. Hubbard, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush, is dean of Columbia Business School. Mr. Duggan is a professor at Columbia Business School.

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Andrew Ireland: Making the Most of Global Investing in a Brave New World

February 28, 2011

There was a time when global meant looking to Europe or Japan, or perhaps Australia if you were bold. That’s no longer the case. The changes that are driving many of the emerging nations are profound and offer significant new investment opportunities for mass affluent Americans (consumers with total investable assets of $250,000 or more) looking to allocate a portion of assets outside the U.S., specifically in emerging markets. The acronyms we hear often tell the story of opportunity: BRIC, CIVETS, MAVINS, representing countries that are changing in dramatic ways such as Russia, Vietnam, and Mexico. They represent areas of the world that are changing patterns of wealth, driving the growth of an enormous middle class and trending to be more comfortable with globalization than their developed counterparts. They are also some of the most interesting areas for long-term growth, keeping in mind there are risks inherent in these markets, including currency fluctuations, changes in political and economic conditions which will result in market fluctuations, as we’re seeing now. As developed nations grapple with a still hesitant recovery, some of the greatest changes are happening across Latin America, Southeast Asia and Africa. These and other emerging markets are expected to expand significantly faster than most developed ones over the next few years — with some estimates citing three times the growth. While still small, these are some of the key drivers of a new global economy, warranting investors to keep a watchful eye. Never before has the impetus been greater for U.S. investors to understand the role emerging countries play in the global economy and their own portfolios. We have long been convinced that we live in a world where substantial macro opportunities exist for these burgeoning nations, and also for those investors looking for a stake in their growth. So what does this mean for investors? Global investing is important, not only for long-term growth but also for portfolio diversification. Since reaching significant new levels in the past few years, emerging market stocks are continuing to present solid development potential. HSBC Bank USA recently conducted a survey on behalf of its Premier banking and wealth management service, offered through HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. (“HSI”), which found that while 82 percent of America’s mass affluent investors believe emerging markets present a great opportunity, some 67 percent say they require more knowledge before allocating their investments there. The survey also highlighted an industry opportunity. Some 80 percent of respondents believe having an experienced global advisor is necessary to successfully invest globally, yet more than one-third (38 percent) are currently relying on themselves to make investment decisions. Countries, such as some of the CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa), with upside consumer purchasing power, raw material deposits and robust manufacturing, look poised to be the new group of success stories. Investing in emerging markets will not be for everyone. Investors need to be comfortable with the risks and volatility of such investments, finding the right balance in their portfolio to meet their tolerance for risk and overall investment objectives. Education and understanding are essential. We in the financial services community must recognize our role in helping investors make the most of opportunities in the high-growth economies. This is the decade in which new emerging economies will come of age. Brazil, Russia, India and China have established a new course for optimizing global opportunities investors should consider. Of course, there will be times of caution. We’re experiencing one of those right now. But, working closely with an experienced financial advisor with in-market knowledge and real-time information makes the climb to emerging market success much easier despite currency fluctuations and political climate changes.

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Dan Dorfman: The Return of the Brothers Grimm

February 28, 2011

Fairy tales are supposed to be the province of the young. Not anymore. The brothers Grimm wrote their first volume of them in 1812. And now, nearly 200 years later, they seem to be making the trek to Wall Street. Here’s the story. If I told you that the overseas uprisings are almost kaput, that rising oil prices (now around $100 a barrel) are hardly a big deal since the price is still well below its July 2008 high of $147, that European debt woes are history, that our housing and job problems should soon take a decided turn for the better amid an improving economy, that inflation fears are way overdone and that higher interest rates are simply out of question in a struggling economic environment, what would you tell me? Probably, that I ought to rejoin the real world. In other words, leave the fairy tales to the brothers Grimm. Well, these rosy views, in a nutshell, are what a fair number of Wall Streeters are pitching and what London money manager Raymond Stahler suggests investors seem to be swallowing by continuing to bid up U.S. stock prices in the face of a giant 86 percent rebound from their March 2009 lows (roughly 6,500 to 12,100 in the Dow Industrials) and a bevy of risks and uncertainties. A couple of weeks ago, I caught up with Stahler, who told me he thought investors were recklessly ignoring the negative ramifications of the sudden outbreak of revolutions and the clear and present danger of them spreading. Now he’s taking it one step further, noting, “Nero fiddled while Rome burned and U.S. investors appear to be doing the same thing when it comes to the stock market.” In effect, he thinks they’re blinded by the signs of economic improvement, accordingly seeing only sunshine and no clouds. “There’s just too much euphoria,” he says, “totally unjustifiable.” Some of those euphoric signs: heavy leveraging by many hedge funds to be as fully invested in stocks, a lively pace of corporate buybacks a growing risk appetite, very low institutional cash reserves and inflows of nearly $25 billion worth of U.S. equity mutual funds the past couple of months (although there has been some recent outflows due to the riots in Egypt and Libya and the rising price of oil). You may be one of those struck by the euphoric wave, but it’s worth knowing that one of the more respected investment and economic minds around, David Rosenberg, the chief investment strategist and economist at Glusken Sheff, a leading Canadian-based wealth management firm, is hoisting cautionary flags. In a weekend note to clients, he kicked off with six of them: declining home prices, contracting bank credit, listless jobs market, soaring oil prices, accelerating spending cuts and tax hikes at state and local government levels and policy tightening overseas. Granted there are tailwinds, such as quantitative easings, strong corporate balance sheets, manufacturing renaissance and the lagged impact of last year’s stimulus announcement. But Rosenberg notes, “If I was keeping score, headwinds are in the lead by six to four.” It also seems clear to our worrywart that the tenor of the global economic recovery is undergoing a bit of change here, and not for the better unfortunately. But U.S. growth projections, he observes, have almost doubled to nearly 4 percent for current quarter GDP even though data on new home sales, real estate prices (resale values are down to 2002 levels) and durable goods orders offer some cause for pause. Rosenberg also takes issue with what he regards as another fairy tale — the emerging view that Saudi Arabia can just step in and replace Libyan oil, which strikes him as totally off base. The reason: Libya’s crude is a perfect feed for ultra low sulfur diesel. The oil the Saudis would use to replace it is not. Apparently, you need three barrels of Saudi crude to get the same number of barrels of diesel sulfur you get from one Libyan barrel. Further, Saudi crude is very high in sulfur and the refineries that process the Libyan crude cannot remove the sulfur. Rosenberg also raises the question of what happens if we lose Libyan crude (an estimated 1.8 million barrels a day) and strategic stocks are not released? Then, as he sees it, $150 a barrel oil would certainly not be out of the question. And that, he points out, is not factoring in Algeria, which has also experienced recent protests. Rosenberg figures the rent rise in oil from $80 to $100 a barrel will subtract 1 percent off real GDP growth. He went on to note that about half of this quarter’s fiscal stimulus from the payroll tax cut has been wiped out by what’s happening at the gas pump. Another economic revelation that he believes is worth thinking about centers on the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s monthly National Activity Index (NAI) that covers the entire economy and is viewed as close to a GDP proxy as you can get. The index has been negative for eight straight months and came in below zero in five of the last six months. The NAI swung from 0.18 in December to 0.16 in January. One has to view these numbers with alarm since Rosenberg says anything below 0.70 and the chances are good the economy is heading back into a recession. “Illusion is the most dangerous thing,” wrote Ralph Waldo Emerson. As far as Wall Street goes, so too may be the return of the brothers Grimm. But just maybe they never left since fairy tales are a good part of what Wall Street is all about. What do you think? E-mal me at Dandordan@aol.com.

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No End In Sight For Libyan Oil Supply Fears

February 27, 2011

MADRID — Libya’s oil industry is in chaos – and there’s no telling when that will end. Armed men loot equipment from oil field installations. British commandos execute secret raids in the Libyan desert to rescue stranded oil workers as security disintegrates rapidly in remote camps. Libyan port workers, frightened of being caught up in Moammar Gadhafi’s violent crackdown on protesters, fail to show up for work, leaving empty tankers floating around the Mediterranean Sea waiting to load crude. And the European oil companies extracting Libya’s black gold are operating in crisis mode, trying to get stranded expatriate workers out and safe amid conflicting information on how much oil is still being pumped and just where it all is. That was just this week. The situation is not expected to get better in the near future. No one knows whether Gadhafi or the rebels trying to oust him will end up controlling Africa’s biggest oil reserves. Fears abound that Libya could turn into a fractured nation with competing armed groups ruling over rich and remote desert fields lying hundreds of miles (kilometers) apart from each other. The chaos in Libya as it descends into virtual civil war has sent international oil prices skyrocketing despite a pledge from Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, to ramp up exports. And that volatility is likely to continue, because it could take weeks or even months for Libyan production and exports to return to normal levels, experts said. That has sent already over-caffinated oil traders into a frenzy that won’t calm down until there’s more clarity about what is happening on the ground in Libya. The International Energy Agency reported late Friday that Libya is probably still producing about 850,000 barrels of oil daily, down from its normal capacity of 1.6 million barrels – but acknowledged the estimate is based on “incomplete, conflicting information.” Libya produces just under 2 percent of the world’s oil, but its customers are overwhelmingly European. Hardest hit by the sudden oil shortage are European refiners that receive 85 percent of Libya’s exports, turning the country’s highly valued crude into diesel and jet fuel. The biggest buyers are Italy, France, Germany and Spain – and Spain is so concerned it announced Friday that highway speed limits will be reduced in March in a desperate bid to cut fuel consumption. The biggest problem facing oil companies and European consumers who depend on Libyan oil is a near-complete breakdown in solid information. Phones in Libya rarely work, Internet is intermittent, workers are fleeing and looters are grabbing what they can or pose a threat until order is restored. While British military planes staged a daring desert rescue Saturday of 150 oil workers, hundreds of other workers were heading across the Sahara Desert in bus convoys toward the Egyptian border – a grueling trip. One evacuee said the military plane he boarded in Libya was supposed to carry around 65 people, but quickly grew to double that. “It was very cramped but we were just glad to be out of there,” Patrick Eyles, a 43-year-old Briton, said at Malta International Airport. Spain’s Repsol-YPF oil company announced Tuesday it had suspended operations in Libya, only to find out a day later that the oil fields it operates with other firms were still producing 160,000 barrels of crude daily. Still, that was less than half of the 360,000 barrels produced before the crisis began. Despite reports that production was still under way in the vast Saharan desert Amal fields, Libyans never before permitted to approach the oil fields under Gadhafi’s reign showed up armed and took anything they could – four-wheel drive vehicles, pumps, generators. One group came with a trailer and tried to remove a huge crane, said Gavin de Salis, chairman of Britain’s OPS international oil field services company. “Nobody shot anyone,” De Salis. “But people were wandering around with guns saying ‘Thanks, we’ll take your vehicle since you’re leaving anyway.’” Two buses arranged by De Salis’ company were ferrying 117 expatriate workers toward Egypt on Sunday, a trip expected to last 24 hours or more, and he said another bus was expected to take 25 expatriates out. Even though production appears to be limping along – with Repsol reporting that Libyan oil workers are increasingly running operations as expatriates leave – the oil isn’t getting out. The 320-mile (520-kilometer) natural gas pipeline under the Mediterranean from Libya to the Italian island of Sicily has been shut down for a week, with no guidance from its owner, the Italian energy firm Eni SpA, on when it might start pumping again. “Most Libyan ports are closed due to bad weather, staff shortages, or production outages,” the IEA reported. Ports are key because Libya’s crude heads abroad on tankers. Major container ship companies have suspended deliveries or pickups from Libyan ports with no word on when shipments might resume. Tanker ships that deliver to Europe have been told to stay more than 100 miles (160 kilometers) offshore from some Libyan ports and await information on whether they can safely dock and take on oil. The massive oil terminal at Brega, Libya’s second-largest hydrocarbon complex, was nearly deserted over the weekend, with operations scaled back almost 90 percent because employees had fled and ships were not showing up. The Brega complex, about 125 miles (200 kilometers) west of the rebel stronghold of Benghazi, collects crude oil and gas from Libya’s fields in the southeast and prepares it for export. Since the crisis began Feb. 15, however, General Manager Fathi Eissa said production had dropped from 90,000 barrels of crude a day to 11,000. With huge spherical storage containers and reservoirs rapidly filling up with oil and natural gas and no ships to take it away, production in the southern fields has been throttled back until Brega can clear some of its capacity. The big oil companies have been mum on how the political situation may pan out, because they want to produce oil whether Gadhafi or someone else ends up in charge, and it’s not worth it for them to risk alienating any of the groups vying for power, said Mohammed El-Katiri, a Middle East analyst at the Eurasia Group risk consulting group. In a worst-case scenario, El-Katiri predicted it could take between four to six months to for Libya’s domestic unrest to ease. “Such a scenario bodes poorly from an oil production point of view on two counts: Not only will it compromise production with Gadhafi still in power, but ongoing violence could further complicate the ability of a post-Gadhafi political order to emerge in a manner that creates a stable domestic security environment,” El-Katiri said. Repsol’s chairman, Antonio Brufau, told reporters he would get his last expatriate workers out using bicycles if necessary – and El-Katiri said oil companies won’t send them back in until they know it’s safe. De Salis said some expatriates could return without a functioning central government but only if local security situations improve. Leaving oil fields deserted in Libya creates even more security problems. In Nigeria, opportunistic villagers, rebels or pirates often tap pipelines in a dangerous bid to steal fuel, leaving many killed or maimed in accidents and pipelines compromised by sabotage. About the only positive sign for Libya’s oil future is that experts believe both Gadhafi and the rebels want to restart suspended oil operations as quickly as possible because they covet Libya’s oil wealth. “For Gadhafi, the money helps because he can keep on paying his militias and mercenaries to keep them fighting and loyal,” El-Katiri said. The rebels, meanwhile, don’t want to alienate Western governments that depend on Libyan oil, he said, and also need money to be strong enough “to resist attacks by Gadhafi.” ___ Paul Schemm in Brega, Libya; Chris Kahn and Jon Fahey in New York and Cassandra Vinograd in London contributed to this report.

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Middle East Protests Straining Gulf Stocks

February 20, 2011

CAIRO — Stocks markets across the Gulf Arab states fell Sunday, with Dubai’s largest exchange registering the steepest drop as unrest in the Mideast lapped at the shores of oil kingpin Saudi Arabia. The Dubai Financial Market closed down 3.66 percent, to 1,536 points, with developer Emaar Properties’ shares sliding 4.73 percent. The company was the force behind the Burj Khalifa, the world’s tallest building. In Kuwait, the benchmark index closed down 2.52 percent, to 6,394, and bringing its year-to-date losses to more than 8 percent. The drops in the oil-rich Gulf region’s exchanges are largely linked to the unrest in Bahrain, where massive protests have roiled the island nation for more than a week as the Shiite majority presses the Sunni monarchy for greater rights and freedoms. Meanwhile, a bloody crackdown on protesters in Libya has further rattled markets as the unrest spilled over to the first major oil producer in the Middle East. The uprisings in Libya and Bahrain “mark a new turn in the crisis,” said brokerage house Nomura in a research note received Sunday. “Regional hydrocarbon producers are now being threatened, and sectarian divisions (notably in Bahrain) are increasing the risk of cross-border involvement in what have largely been domestic revolutions thus far.” Sunday is the start of the work week in the Arab world, except for Saudi Arabia, and the market selloffs reflected investors’ first chance to weigh in on the developments over the weekend. The protests in Bahrain marked the first time the unrest sweeping across the Arab world has seriously challenged the entrenched regime in one of the wealthy Gulf Cooperation Council nations. Also aflame is Yemen, the Arab world’s most impoverished nation, which sits on the southwestern tip of the Arabian Peninsula. The unrest on Saudi Arabia’s doorstep has sparked fears of a spillover into the country, with concerns focusing both on the Sunni-Shiite divide in Bahrain and the fact that a significant change in Bahrain’s political system could spark calls for similar reforms in Riyadh, which sits atop the world’s largest proven reserves of conventional crude oil. Saudi Arabia has a Shiite minority primarily located in its eastern province, where the bulk of its oil is located. Any hint that stability is in question in the kingdom – the de facto leader of the 12-nation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries – could send oil prices surging across the world, threatening a continued global economic recovery. “It’s a general risk aversion in the region as a whole,” said John Sfakianakis, chief economist with the Saudi Arabia-based Banque Saudi Fransi, explaining the drops in the region’s markets. With Egypt’s market still shuttered after the unrest that toppled Hosni Mubarak, and the protests jumping from one Arab nation to the next, investors “are basically trying to hedge themselves against downside risks,” Sfakianakis said. “And the downside risks are accumulating.” Saudi Arabia’s TASI index closed down 0.78 percent to 6,333 points, building on a 1.6 percent slip on Saturday, the start of the work week in the country. In Kuwait, shares of telecommunication giant Zain fell 7.25 percent to 1.28 Kuwaiti dinars. The slide came a day after the investment company headed by Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal withdrew its offer to buy a 25 percent stake in the Kuwaiti telecom operator’s division in the kingdom. Kingdom Holding said in a statement Sunday that it believed the nonbinding offer it had submitted was “a reasonable offer to the shareholders of KHC and Zain Kuwait.” Qatar’s exchange was down 1.6 percent, to 8,563 points while Abu Dhabi’s exchange was off 1.91 percent to 2,632 points.

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3-axis strategy to restore Confidence in Egypt economy

February 17, 2011

3-axis strategy to restore Confidence in Egypt economy

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3-axis strategy to restore Confidence in Egypt economy

February 17, 2011

3-axis strategy to restore Confidence in Egypt economy

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Paul R. Epstein, M.D., M.P.H.: Taxing Financial Speculation, Raising Funds for Critical Needs

February 15, 2011

Levying a tiny tax on financial transactions could help build a healthier and more stable future. Political discontent simmered for decades in Egypt, but soaring food prices helped push public frustration past the boiling point. As the political drama there continues to unfold, it’s critical to address the complex financial and environmental dynamics that have driven global food prices to record levels . Rising oil prices and the shift from food crops to biofuels are part of the problem. But two other factors deserve increased attention — climate change and financial speculation. Extreme weather events — like the heat wave that sparked fires across Russia’s breadbasket last summer — are tightening supplies. The impacts of severe weather in one area on distant nations (witness the food riots in Mozambique last summer as Russia cooked) emphasize the limits of adaptation. And changing weather patterns, with more droughts, floods, severe hurricanes, and winter weather anomalies, are predicted to increase in a warming world. Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute, warns that for each degree of temperature increase, crop yields are anticipated to drop by 10 percent . He notes that, with climate change and altered weather patterns, come growing water scarcity, desertification of once-arable land, and the inundation of globally important farmland — such as the Mekong and Red River deltas, which produce most of Vietnam’s rice. Experts also blame an explosion of speculation in food commodity markets for food price volatility. The original purpose of these markets was to help farmers and food processors lock in predictable prices so they could make smart business decisions. The financial speculators that now dominate the markets don’t intend to buy or sell grain or meat. Their interest lies in capitalizing on food shortages and price volatility. Thanks in part to deregulation , the speed of this global gambling can lead to boom and bust cycles that are detached from the actual value of food. The G20 finance ministers, who will meet this week in Paris, have an opportunity to take bold steps toward tackling both of these underlying causes of the food price crisis. French president Nicolas Sarkozy, currently the G20 chair, is pushing for an international agreement to adopt taxes on financial speculation that could generate massive revenues for urgent needs, including climate programs in developing countries. Here’s how this would work. A tiny levy would be charged on each financial trade, including every sale of stocks, bonds, foreign currency, credit default swaps, commodity futures, or other derivatives. Because trillions of dollars worth of transactions occur every day, even a small tax of 0.05 percent could raise more than $600 billion annually . Directing a portion of this revenue to programs to combat climate change and support global health programs would dwarf current public contributions. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, financier and philanthropist George Soros backed the idea of using some of the revenues from such a financial transactions tax (which supporters often refer to as an FTT) to fight climate change. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is another strong proponent and is exploring the possibility of moving ahead with a “coalition of the willing” rather than waiting for all G20 countries to get on board. Other financiers and governments would do well to follow the path of enlightened self-interest. The UK showed how shifting funds from finance to industry could be good for business when it took actions in the early 1990s to reduce high interest rates that were stagnating money in bank savings. Soon after, its economy took off. In a recent study, the International Monetary Fund found that taxes on financial speculation are not only technically feasible but that most G20 countries (and many others) have already implemented some form of an FTT. For example, the London Stock Exchange has long levied a 0.5 percent stamp tax on all stock trades. Though the Obama administration hasn’t yet endorsed the idea of taxing financial speculation, there is support in the U.S. Congress. In the last session, members introduced several bills to create various types of financial transactions taxes. Rep. Pete Stark (D-CA) is poised to re-introduce legislation that would put a levy on foreign currency transactions to generate revenue for deficit reduction and for global public goods, like the clean energy transformation. As the G20 meets, advocates in 20 nations around the world, including the United States, will carry out a variety of actions to send a message to G20 leaders to support levying a FTT. No one regulatory mechanism will solve all of the problems of food insecurity, climate change, and financial instability. But, with national budgets strapped and the financial sector benefitting handsomely from the global economy, it becomes even more important for speculators to do their fair share. A tax on financial speculation could be the first of many innovative mechanisms to link the economy with the environment and help build a healthier, more stable, and more secure future.

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Martin T. Sosnoff: Trade in Your Bonds for Equities

February 15, 2011

Every time I hire an outstanding Egyptologist to guide me through the ruins I end up canceling my trip — for good reasons. Now it’s the 81-year-old despot, still black-haired, going on 85 and how many face lifts? Last year, a group of German tourists were savaged by terrorists. Recently, a busload of foreign visitors crashed on a winding road with multiple fatalities. More and more, I sense the world is busy, maybe too busy and prone to accidents. The financial world is so interconnected that when China’s monetary authorities notch up interest rates to fight inflationary excesses our Big Board shudders. Turmoil in Egypt triggered a $6 spike in oil futures over 2 days. Talk about butterflies flapping their wings on distant continents! When markets roil in pain, missing geopolitical upsets in the Mideast, I force myself to press trading desk buttons and buy reciprocal beneficiaries. Egypt’s pain is oil’s gain. In case you missed it, both Schlumberger and Halliburton spiked 10 percent. Oil reserves outside the Mideast just turned more strategically valuable. Drilling is bound to accelerate elsewhere. I hate this daily noise level, but I’ve learned not to overreact and go on with my life, tuned into the mighty flow of Ole Man River, the long term trends lurking beneath the surface of choppy waters. Some fifty years ago, Sidney Homer, Solomon’s research partner, published his annual supply and demand for funds study that dealt with the bond market. It couldn’t encompass wars and financial panics but was a good indicator of where the bond market was headed. Later on, Henry Kaufman took on this responsibility. Traders at Solly ignored these term papers as too academic, but this document was distributed to the Street and eagerly awaited by all of us. Everyone today dissects each mumble of Federal Reserve Board members and makes decisions based on the course of the dollar, interest rates, inflation and emerging markets dynamics. I don’t see much work done on the supply and demand for funds available to our stock market. The Street tracks volatility and the correlation of specific stock market groups to broader indices like the S&P 500, but this is pure noise level stuff. Stats I look at suggest huge money streaming into equities from institutional and individual investors. Forget foreign money which is volatile and invariably comes in late, thereby accentuating bull markets but is not a significant variable. Changes in flows mount into trillions of dollars, enough to move Big Board valuations higher. Margin credit is insignificant, maybe $500 billion in a market valued near $15 trillion. This even with interest charges relatively insignificant for well heeled investors, no more than 1 percent. The quarterly net flow into financial assets during the bear market turned from a $200 billion positive to a negative number. Individuals, at least, handled themselves conservatively, raised cash, didn’t tap margin credit and plowed money into bond funds, municipals, and even paid down outstanding debt. Meanwhile, state and local debt rose inexorably this past decade as did Federal debt and Fanny and Freddy’s mortgage pools. But, the cost of debt service for the government is half what it was 10 years ago and debt service as a percentage of GDP rose only 2 percentage points to 18 percent from 16 percent. Politicians rarely dig down into such pivotal numbers. Even though real short term interest rates turned negative the past few years, individuals raised cash holdings to 40 percent of financial assets from 30 percent. Only in the mid-seventies and early 1980′s was cash as much of 60 percent of assets. Then, short term interest rates ranged as high as 15 percent under Paul Volcker’s reign as Federal Reserve Board chairman. Those days gone, but not forgotten. Currently, there’s a sea charge in asset deployment under way by individuals and institutions. Money is coming out of bond funds and municipals and flowing into equities. The only fixed income sector holding up is the junk bond category, where yields to maturity of 7 percent or better are available on single B credits. Even BB credits with yields of 5.5 percent are holding firm despite the treasury market’s decline. Unless 10-year Treasuries spike to the 4.5 percent level shortly (not my call) the high yield market could be almost as attractive a sector as it was over the past 24 months and give stock market indices a run for best asset class, again. Over the past six years, private pension funds took bond holdings up by $1 trillion, but this move is played out and capital is moving back into stocks. Equities dropped from 60 percent of assets to below 40 percent at the market bottom. Fixed income investments had risen to as high as 30 percent of assets from a normalized 20 percent. Equities at the top of the market in 2007 reached about $19 trillion and bottomed at $10 trillion. Cash for all institutional investors and individuals over the past decade rose form $5 trillion to $9 trillion, a huge amount needing reinvestment into higher yielding paper. Even the Big Board yields over 2 percent and is seeing serious payouts from tech houses like Intel and Microsoft to be followed by Cisco and perhaps even Apple, presently sitting on its $70 billion boodle. Equities, normally 70 percent of private pension fund assets, even after the monstrous market rally now stand at 60 percent of assets. Fixed income investments remain at 40 percent of assets, normally closer to 20 percent. Financial assets held by individuals have rebounded to $25 trillion from approximately $20 billion at the market’s low point. I see at least $5 trillion in pension fund and individual assets reallocating to equities over the next 24 months from cash holdings and bonds. Unless short rates rise markedly over the next 12 months, the reallocation from cash alone could reach as much as $4 trillion. Fixed income investments seem too high at $9 trillion vs. a normalized level of $5 trillion so my $5 trillion asset reallocation number could be conservative. Obviously, inertia is a powerful force and what is sensible and logical doesn’t always happen. Consumer confidence is rising so this is a plus factor, but home prices need to perk up, too. After all, half of all family wealth resides in home ownership. A weak dollar is good for the stock market up to a point, but negative for fixed income investments. The world is witnessing serious commodity inflation in oil, copper, iron ore and grains. All this could lead to tightening by central banks, worldwide. A reversal in Federal Reserve Board policy emphasis could happen sooner than the bond crowd anticipates. Nobody expects Fed Funds above 1 percent well into 2012. Money may stay in short term holdings longer than I expect. If 10-year Treasuries pierce through the 4 percent yield level it could inhibit capital flows into equities. Market pundits would take down their projection of a mid-teens price earnings ratio by a couple of notches. There could be a reverse flow out of equities into bonds, but I rate this as a low probability. Net, net of this supply and demand funds analysis for the stock market, we should see at least a couple of trillion flowing into stocks, maybe more. This sum is a big number for a market valued around $15 trillion. I wasn’t smart enough to buy gold which thrives on geopolitical unrest, but I did put new money into commodities, namely oil, and coal, copper and iron ore. If anything, growth stocks turn marginally more attractive, even richly priced properties like Amazon and Baidu whose top lines mushroom for years to come. Both Apple and Google posted way above consensus numbers. Somebody besides me must care, sooner or later. Apple now trades above its price point when the Steve Jobs bomb shell hit the tape.

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Video: Owen Says Egypt Oil Is Safe, Expects Trade Protectionism

February 14, 2011

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) — Roger Owen, a professor of Middle East history at Harvard University, talks about the impact of changes in Egypt’s government on the country’s economy and the Middle East. Owen speaks with Mark Crumpton on Bloomberg Television’s “Bottom Line.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Ramez Sees Money Inflows to Egypt Returning to Normal

February 14, 2011

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) — Hisham Ramez, deputy governor of the Central Bank of Egypt, talks about the outlook for the nation’s banks and interest by foreign banks in Egypt’s treasury auctions. Egypt paid the highest yield in more than two years on its six-month treasury bills on Feb. 10 as it struggles to finance a budget deficit and rebuild its economy. Ramez speaks with Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Saba Sees Growth in Egypt’s Consumer, Telecom Industries

February 14, 2011

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) — Aladdin Saba, chief executive officer of Egyptian investment bank Beltone Financial, talks about the prospects for Egypt after the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak. He speaks with Margaret Brennan in Cairo on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Sawiris Is `Concerned’ About Capital Outflow From Egypt

February 14, 2011

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) — Naguib Sawiris, chairman of Orascom Telecom Holding SAE, talks about the outlook for Egypt’s economy following the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak. Sawiris was a member of an informal committee that negotiated with Vice President Omar Suleiman about a gradual transfer of power by the Mubarak regime before the leader resigned. He speaks with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television’s “On The Move.”

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FINANCE VIDEO: Clifford Bennett Market Overview: Egypt On Firm And Positive Path

February 14, 2011

FINANCE VIDEO: Clifford Bennett Market Overview: Egypt On Firm And Positive Path

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Gold to Resume Decline as Focus Shifts Away from Egypt

February 12, 2011

Gold to Resume Decline as Focus Shifts Away from Egypt

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Video: Gnehm Says Egypt Elections Not Possible Within 60 Days

February 11, 2011

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) — Edward Gnehm, former U.S. ambassador to Jordan, and James Carafano, a national security expert at the Heritage Foundation’s Allison Center, talk about the outlook for Egypt’s leadership following the resignation of Hosni Mubarak as president. They speak with Carol Massar on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Kasten Expects Successful Government Transition in Egypt

February 11, 2011

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) — Former U.S. Senator Bob Kasten talks about the outlook for Egypt’s government and economy after Hosni Mubarak’s decision to resign his position as president. He speaks with Carol Massar and Peter Cook on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: McMahon Doubts Egypt Will Disrupt Middle East Oil Flows

February 11, 2011

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) — Daniel McMahon, director of equity trading at Raymond James & Associates Inc., talks about the political unrest in Egypt and the impact on energy markets. Hosni Mubarak stepped down as president of Egypt today and handed power to the military. McMahon speaks with Julie Hyman on Bloomberg Television’s “Fast Forward.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Davidson Says Mubarak Regime Change `Yet to Be Seen’

February 11, 2011

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) — Christopher Davidson, a professor at Durham University in the U.K., talks about Hosni Mubarak’s move to step down as president of Egypt and hand over power to the military. He speaks with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance Midday.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Hamid Says `A Lot of Uncertainty’ Remains in Egypt

February 11, 2011

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) — Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Institution’s Doha Center, talks about the outlook for Egypt after Hosni Mubarak’s resignation as president. Hamid speaks with Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Al-Arab Says CIB Egypt Ready to Open All Branches

February 11, 2011

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) — Hisham Ezz Al-Arab, chairman of Commercial International Bank Egypt SAE, talks about the company’s operations and the outlook for Egypt after Hosni Mubarak’s resignation as president. Al-Arab speaks with Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Hegazy Says Egyptians Expect Elections in 6-12 Months

February 11, 2011

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) — Ashraf Hegazy, executive director of the Dubai Initiative at Harvard University, talks about the outlook for Egypt’s government following the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak. Hegazy, speaking with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance Midday,” also discusses the outlook for capital flows into Egypt. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Pollack Says `Long Road’ Ahead for Egypt After Mubarak

February 11, 2011

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) — Kenneth Pollack, director of the Brookings Institution’s Saban Center for Middle East Policy, discusses Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s resignation today. Pollack, speaking from Washington with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance Midday,” also talks about U.S. aid to Egypt and contagion concerns. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Switzerland Freezes Mubarak’s Assets

February 11, 2011

ZURICH, Feb 11 (Reuters) – Switzerland has frozen assets that may belong to Hosni Mubarak, who stepped down as president of Egypt on Friday after 30 years of rule, the foreign ministry said. “I can confirm that Switzerland has frozen possible assets of the former Egyptian president with immediate effect,” spokesman Lars Knuchel said soon after Mubarak bowed to 18 days of mass protests. “As a result of this measure any assets are frozen for three years.” He did not say how much money was involved or where it was. Assets belonging to Mubarak’s associates would also be targeted so as to limit the chance of state funds being plundered, the ministry said. Mubarak and his associates would be prevented from selling or otherwise disposing of property, notably real estate. In recent years, Switzerland has worked hard to improve its image as a haven for ill-gotten assets. It has also frozen assets belonging to Tunisia’s former president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, ousted by popular protests last month, and Ivory Coast’s Laurent Gbagbo, who has refused to step down after an election which the outside world says he lost. (Editing by Mark Trevelyan) Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Video: Al-Khalifa Says Egypt Unrest Is `Positive’ for Region

February 11, 2011

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) — Mohammed Bin Essa Al-Khalifa, chief executive officer of the Economic Development Board of Bahrain, discusses the unrest in Egypt and its potential economic impact on the region. Al-Khalifa speaks with Scarlet Fu and Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Chamie Expects Further Market Fallout From Egypt Unrest: Video

February 11, 2011

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) — Nick Chamie, global head of emerging markets research at RBC Capital Markets, talks about the impact of the political unrest in Egypt on the financial markets. Chamie speaks with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: El-Manakhly Says Suez Canal Traffic Is `Quite Normal’

February 11, 2011

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) — Ahmed El-Manakhly, head of traffic for the Suez Canal Authority, talks about shipping passing through the canal and measures taken to prevent disruptions to the route amid protests against Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak. He speaks with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.”

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Video: Boyce Says Egyptians May Accept Army Role in Transition

February 11, 2011

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) — Graham Boyce, a former British ambassador to Egypt, talks about the prospects for political change in Egypt after President Hosni Mubarak defied calls for his immediate resignation and delegated some powers to his deputy. He speaks with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television’s “On The Move.”

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Forex Markets Eye Egypt as Mubarak Refuses to Step Down

February 11, 2011

Forex Markets Eye Egypt as Mubarak Refuses to Step Down

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Crude Shrugs off Renewed Unrest in Egypt, Gold Holds near $1366 Resistance

February 11, 2011

Crude Shrugs off Renewed Unrest in Egypt, Gold Holds near $1366 Resistance

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FOREX: US Dollar Hits Three-Week High Amid Egypt Coup Fears

February 11, 2011

FOREX: US Dollar Hits Three-Week High Amid Egypt Coup Fears

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FOREX: US Dollar Hits Three-Week High Amid Egypt Coup Fears

February 11, 2011

FOREX: US Dollar Hits Three-Week High Amid Egypt Coup Fears

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American Stocks Drop at Opening on Egypt, and Earnings

February 11, 2011

American Stocks Drop at Opening on Egypt, and Earnings

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Dollar advances on renewed tensions in Egypt

February 11, 2011

Dollar advances on renewed tensions in Egypt

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Chris Martenson, Ph.D.: Egypt’s Warning: Are You Listening?

February 10, 2011

One day, a fruit and vegetable seller was arrested in Tunisia, sparking social unrest, and a few weeks later the government of Egypt was set to topple.

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Chris Martenson, Ph.D.: Egypt’s Warning: Are You Listening?

February 10, 2011

One day, a fruit and vegetable seller was arrested in Tunisia, sparking social unrest, and a few weeks later the government of Egypt was set to topple.

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France recalls position of non-interference in Egypt

February 10, 2011

France recalls position of non-interference in Egypt

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Jeffrey Rubin: Food: What’s Really Behind the Unrest in Egypt

February 9, 2011

It’s more than coincidence the Arab world is convulsing with social unrest just as the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization’s widely watched price index recently soared past the previous food price peak set in the summer of 2008. After all, didn’t those same prices ignite food riots throughout the world only three summers ago? When 40% of your population lives on less than $2 per day, soaring food prices isn’t about cutting back on luxury spending. This is particularly telling when record prices include basic grains such as wheat, of which Egypt is the world’s largest importer. Suddenly, it becomes a lot more difficult for the roughly 30 million Egyptians living on that $2 per day to stomach their three decade dictator, Hosni Mubarak. Similar popular indigestion, triggered initially around food prices, sent equally beloved Tunisian strongman, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, packing all the way to exile in Saudi Arabia. And when food riots recently broke out in neighboring Algeria, not only did three-term president Abdelaziz Bouteflika suddenly see fit to lift a 19-year stage of emergency but, more important, he told his government to order a record 800,000 tonnes of wheat. Algeria is not the only country in the region to start bulking up on its food inventories as a hedge against future food protests that could easily morph into popular revolutions. Everyone in the region is doing it, including supposedly stable Saudi Arabia, which recently announced plans to double its wheat inventories. And it is not just Arab nations feeling the pinch. Food riots are sweeping across the developing world, encouraging similar hoarding elsewhere. Bangladesh and Indonesia placed record rice orders; the former doubling its order, while Jakarta quadrupled its rice purchases. And China may soon be joining the fray. Severe drought in the north is having a disastrous impact on the country’s winter wheat harvest. This has left the ground extremely dry for spring planting. If China, normally self-sufficient in wheat, becomes a significant importer this year, world grain prices could go a lot higher. If soaring food prices are the real culprit behind growing civil unrest sweeping through the developing world, governments reaction to the crisis is only bound to make the problem worse. You don’t need a PhD in economics to figure out what happens to prices when every government under the sun starts stockpiling food. What’s most disconcerting about today’s food prices (as it is with oil prices) is not so much their record level but how little time it has taken for basic resource prices to rebound from the post-war’s deepest global recession. At the very beginning of a new cycle, we are already seeing the same record food and energy prices that ended the last cycle. I wonder what that says about the sustainability of growth?

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Carl Pope: The Next Economic Crisis

February 8, 2011

Mumbai, India — Like stock indexes around the world, India’s Sensex plunged with the news of the unrest in Egypt, largely over fear about oil prices. But unlike other exchanges, the Sensex has not bounded back. It fell for four straight days, rebounded for one, and then on Friday fell by 2.9 percent. But in India oil is not the only commodity whose price can have a devastating economic impact. Indeed, higher oil prices hit India’s economy primarily indirectly — through their impact on food prices, which are up 17 percent. The Nielson Global Consumer Confidence index says Indians are leading the world in worries about food inflation. The moment oil broke the $100/barrel, major domestic banks here announced higher interest rates. And India is not the only country facing a crisis over commodity prices. The Sensex is simply the early warming system that a looming combination of higher oil prices and food inflation threatens to engulf the world this quarter. Ironically, it’s good news that’s partly responsible for this threat. Manufacturing levels all over the world, even in the U.S., have begun to recover from the Great Recession. This puts economic output on a collision course with an underlying shortage of commodities like oil, steel, cement, chemicals, and food. It’s the same pattern that drove up food prices in 2008 and helped tilt the world into recession a year later.

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Current situation in Egypt ‘impacts’ India central bank

February 7, 2011

Current situation in Egypt ‘impacts’ India central bank

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Current situation in Egypt ‘impacts’ India central bank

February 7, 2011

Current situation in Egypt ‘impacts’ India central bank

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Video: Moubayed Says Egypt Bond Sale Will Attract Local Banks

February 7, 2011

Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) — Alia Moubayed, a senior economist at Barclays Capital, talks about Egypt’s plans to raise 15 billion Egyptian pounds ($2.6 billion) in a bond sale today. Talks between Egypt’s government and opposition parties eased pressure for the immediate departure of President Hosni Mubarak, helping the country’s financial system to return toward normalcy. Moubayed speaks from Beirut with Andrea Catherwood on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.”

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Video: ARTOC’s Gabr Says Protests to Hurt Egypt Treasury, GDP

February 4, 2011

Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) — Shafik Gabr, chairman of ARTOC Group for Investment and Development, talks about the impact of protests in Egypt on the country’s economy and bond market. He speaks with Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: OSG’s Arntzen Says `Business as Usual’ in Suez Canal

February 4, 2011

Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) — Morten Arntzen, chief executive officer of Overseas Shipholding Group, discusses shipping rates and the outlook for Egypt’s Suez Canal. Arntzen speaks with Erik Schatzker and Deirdre Bolton on Bloomberg Television’s “InsideTrack.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Newton Says Egyptian Stalemate May Go On for `Long Time’

February 4, 2011

Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) — Alastair Newton, senior political analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc., talks about the protests in Egypt demanding the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak. He speaks with Andrea Catherwood on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.”

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Investors Turn to the U.S. Jobs Report, as Egypt Remains on the Back of their Heads

February 4, 2011

Investors Turn to the U.S. Jobs Report, as Egypt Remains on the Back of their Heads

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Video: Yaqoub Says Yemen’s Press Freedom Helps Allay Unrest

February 4, 2011

Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) — Jalal Yaqoub, Yemen’s deputy finance minister, talks about the political regimes in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen, and the prospects for political unrest spreading. He speaks from Sana’a with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television’s “On The Move.”

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Middle East Unrest Could Be ‘Exceedingly Dangerous’ For The Global Economy

February 3, 2011

With the crisis in Egypt showing little sign of abating, its effect on trade increasingly poses a threat to the global economic recovery. The prices of oil and other commodities have been rising since the protests began last week, as purchasers fear trade channels could be disrupted. Speculation is driving a dangerous trend, one that could drain economies and consumers of vital resources, as gas and food become more expensive. But the real risk lies ahead, experts warn: If the unrest spreads to other countries, then the global recovery, which lately has been picking up steam, could face a major barrier. World economies have in recent months shown promising signs of recovery. In the U.S., where high unemployment and falling home prices continue to impede progress, manufacturing and lending have picked up, and the stock market has enjoyed a steady rise. But oil could change that. “We can digest what’s happened so far reasonably gracefully,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “If the trouble spreads over the Middle East, and the oil supply is significantly disrupted, that would be a problem.” The price of Brent crude oil, an industry benchmark, rose above $103 a barrel on Thursday. It’s the highest value since September 2008, after a summer of record-high oil prices helped drag the economy into recession. Egypt serves as a crucial link in the transport of oil. In 2009, Egypt’s Suez Canal and Sumed pipeline conveyed 2.9 million barrels daily, according to the U.S. Energy Department. As fears of a blockage mount, the Egyptian army has increased security around the canal, and some shipping companies have ordered vessels not to change crews in Egypt. If the trade passages were blocked, ships would be forced to add 6,000 miles to their journey. Though blockage hasn’t happened and oil supplies haven’t been disrupted, rising prices suggest buyers fear the worst. “Right now I don’t think what we’re seeing is a permanent shock,” said Gregory Daco, a senior U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight. “You’d have a permanent shock were the fundamentals to change, were supply and demand to change.” Further risk lies beyond Egypt’s passageways. Just weeks after protesters in Tunisia took to the streets, demonstrations began in Egypt, and then in Yemen. Activists have organized in Syria, and the Algerian government has taken steps to defuse tension. If the unrest spreads to oil-producing countries in the Middle East, the region’s oil supply could be compromised. Such an event would likely drive the price of oil still higher, with potentially devastating consequences. “If it went up to $150 and stayed there for the rest of the year, then all the benefit of the tax cut deal would be wiped out,” Zandi said. “The economic recovery would probably remain intact, although the risks would be very high.” “If anything else went wrong, a double-dip scenario would look very likely,” he added. Oil-producers do have methods for dealing with a compromised supply. Abdullah al-Badri, secretary general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said this week that his organization could put millions more barrels on the market if need be. But there’s no guarantee that would prevent inflation. If the price of a barrel of oil were to rise by $10.70 — or roughly 10 percent — and stay there for a year, the American economy would lose 270,000 jobs, according to a new simulation produced by IHS Global Insight. After a year, the country’s economic output would be 0.4 percent lower than it otherwise would have been. After two years of a sustained price increase, output would be 0.6 percent lower, the simulation predicts. A higher cost of oil impacts Americans in myriad ways. It boosts gas prices at the pump, it raises heating costs and it deprives consumers of the money they would otherwise spend on other things. As transportation in general becomes more expensive, the cost of airplane tickets rises, and it becomes more costly to ship goods, which, again, hits consumers’ wallets. A dollar increase at American gas pumps tears more than a billion dollars from the economy each year, economists say. “The oil price is woven into virtually the entire fabric of most economies,” said Jeffrey Garten, a professor of international trade and finance at Yale, and a former undersecretary of commerce for international trade in the Clinton Administration. As high prices would sap consumers’ wealth, governments would be placed in a difficult position. A possible remedy, Garten suggested, would be to raise interest rates, in attempt to bring prices down. But in the wake of the recession, and in the years leading up to it, American monetary policy has been premised on the idea that low interest rates spur growth. Raising rates would likely stall lending, dealing untold damage to the economy. “The thing about the global economy today is it is stretched very taught,” Garten said. “We always talk about inflation and eyes glaze over, but inflation at this particular time could be exceedingly dangerous.” The Egyptian unrest has affected the prices of other commodities as well, but oil prices stand out at the principal threat, experts say. Egypt is a major exporter of cotton, and trade with the U.S. accounted for more than 30 percent of the cotton export business during the first half of last year, according to Egypt’s records . The price of cotton , which more than doubled over the course of last year, shot higher as protests began. But cotton isn’t oil. “Cotton will have some impact, but cotton isn’t that important for the U.S. economy,” said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, in Washington. “If people spend 10 percent more on clothes, they’ll be unhappy, but it’s just not going to be that big of a hit to their pocket book.” The potential pain likely won’t be limited to the U.S. The current crisis, if it worsens, could have devastating effects in the Middle East, as investors move dollars out of the region. After protests began, the Swiss Franc and the U.S. Dollar have strengthened, a sign that investors are buying those currencies. Much depends on the crisis’ spreading. But already, the Egyptian unrest is moving global prices. “The world economy is so interwoven that nobody really understands all the connections,” Garten said. “It is very easy to underestimate what a little country like Egypt could do.”

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Video: Moelis Says `Business as Usual’ in Most of Middle East

February 3, 2011

Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) — Ken Moelis, the former UBS AG investment banking president who founded and now heads Moelis & Co., discusses U.S. corporate relationships in Egypt and the Middle East. Moelis, speaking with Erik Schatzker and Deirdre Bolton on Bloomberg Television’s “InsideTrack,” also discusses the outlook for merger and acquisition activity, executive confidence in the U.S. economy and his business strategy. (Source: Bloomberg)

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