england

By Jennifer Ryan March 17 (Bloomberg) — U.K. jobless claims unexpectedly fell in February at the fastest pace since 1997, suggesting the economic recovery is strengthening as Britons prepare for a general election within weeks. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits dropped 32,300 from January to 1.59 million, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 29 economists was for an increase of 6,000. The jobless rate declined to 4.9 percent from 5 percent. The figures are a boost for Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who is seeking to persuade voters his Labour Party has the best strategy to cement the economic recovery. The Conservatives’ pledge to cut the record budget deficit faster than Brown is planning has cost the party support, raising the specter of a minority government after the election due by June. “We’re at a stabilization point in the level of unemployment,” Ross Walker, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London, said in an interview before the report. “Things are still quite fragile. The austerity message isn’t an easy one to sell, and in the short term you’re vulnerable to accusations that unemployment might rise.” The pound rose 0.4 percent after the report and was trading at $1.5280 as of 9:31 a.m. in London. A wider survey-based measure of unemployment based on International Labour Organization counting methods fell by 33,000 to 2.45 million in the three months through January, the biggest drop since the fourth quarter of 2007. The 7.8 percent jobless rate on that basis compares with 9.7 percent in the U.S., 9.9 percent in the euro region and 4.9 percent in Japan. Minority Government In January, the number of jobless claims rose by 5,300 instead of the 23,500 increase originally reported. A March 15 YouGov Plc poll for the Sun newspaper put the Conservatives 5 points ahead of Labour with 37 percent support, compared with a lead of 12 points at the start of the year. Speculation that no party will get an outright majority of the seats in Parliament at the election sent the pound to a 10- month low against the dollar this month. Investors are concerned that a minority administration will find it hard to cut the deficit, which is almost as big as Greece’s at more than 12 percent of economic output. The Bank of England said this week its agents expect businesses to keep staff numbers stable in the coming months. Britain emerged from its deepest recession since World War II in the fourth quarter with growth of 0.3 percent. The statistics office said today growth in weekly pay including bonuses quickened to 0.9 percent in the three months through January from 0.7 percent. Regular pay rose 1.4 percent and bonus pay fell declined 7.1 percent. To contact the reporter on this story: Jennifer Ryan in London at jryan13@bloomberg.net

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U.K. Jobless Claims Decline at Fastest Pace Since 1997 as Economy Recovers

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Cheyne Capital Bets on U.K. Property Rally With Lower-Rated Mortgage Debt

March 12, 2010

By Esteban Duarte March 12 (Bloomberg) — Cheyne Capital Management (U.K.) LLP, a hedge fund firm which oversees $5.5 billion, is betting on an improvement in Britain’s real estate market. Cheyne is boosting the allocation of lower-rated mortgage debt in its Queen’s Walk Investment Ltd. fund in expectation home-loan defaults will continue to decline, partner Shamez Alibhai said in an interview. Queen’s Walk invests most of its 120 million euros in mortgage-backed securities. “After strong profits from investments on triple-A residential MBS we are moving down the structures of the transactions,” Alibhai said. Queen’s Walk sold 3.4 million euros of AAA rated notes with an equivalent annual profit of 28 percent, the fund said yesterday in its fourth-quarter results. The U.K. property market is rebounding after its worst slump since the early 1990s, with Bank of England data showing mortgage approvals close to a one-year high in December. Delinquencies of more than 90 days on higher-risk, non- conforming mortgages declined to 18.6 percent in the last three months of 2009 compared with 19 percent at the end of September, according to Fitch Ratings. Cheyne is focusing its purchases on debt backed by non- conforming and buy-to-let mortgages, loans which the mortgage holder repays using rental income, Alibhai said. Queen’s Walk is also buying the mezzanine portions of bonds backed by mortgages on commercial property, he said. “Now we are buying double-A and single-A notes, usually located at the mezzanine portions of the deals, at an average price of 44 cents,” Alibhai said. The rankings are the third and sixth highest investment grades. So-called mezzanine pieces of issues sold by Northern Rock Plc, among the most liquid of mortgage-collateralized debt, rose 10 cents so far this year, compared with 1 cent for the top- rated portions, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Northern Rock was nationalized in 2008 after depositors withdrew funds on concern the Newcastle, England-based bank had borrowed too much using mortgages as collateral. Banks create mortgage-backed securities by pooling home loans and selling them to investors as notes with varying risk and returns. To contact the reporter on this story: Esteban Duarte in Madrid at eduarterubia@bloomberg.net

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U.K. House Prices Rose in February by Most Since 2002, Acadametrics Says

March 12, 2010

By Scott Hamilton March 12 (Bloomberg) — U.K. house prices increased in February at the fastest pace in more than seven years, research group Acadametrics Ltd. said. The average cost of a home in England and Wales was 222,008 pounds ($334,033), up 1.9 percent from January in the biggest advance since September 2002, Acadametrics founder David Thorpe said in a telephone interview. Values are still 4 percent below their February 2008 peak, the group said in an estimate released by e-mail today. The measurement is at odds with other housing data that show values fell last month and is likely to be revised down, Thorpe said. Some property market indicators show Britain’s housing recovery lost momentum this year after the looming general election, an increase in transaction tax and colder- than-average winter weather deterred buyers. “The numbers at the moment are very volatile because of low transactions,” Thorpe said. “When more transactions come through we would expect this 1.9 percent to drop.” Transactions in January plunged 52 percent from December to 36,000, an 11-month low, the research group said. Acadametrics uses methodology employed by the U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller price index, combining initial housing transaction data from the U.K. Land Registry and results from other price measures to produce an estimate for the most recent month . That number is then revised in following months. The gauge was formerly called the Financial Times House Price Index. To contact the reporter on this story: Scott Hamilton in London at shamilton8@bloomberg.net .

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Mary Ann West: Supermarket Contract Stops 36,000 Workers From Strike

March 11, 2010

It had been a given that food, alcohol, and funerals were recession proof. That is, until recently. Now we feel the pain, each in our own way. Supermarket workers feel the pain: low wages, escalating health care costs, and a reduction in pension benefits. Unionized workers have their locals watching their backs and negotiating fair wages and benefits. With a unanimous vote to ratify a three year contract, there was a sigh of relief for 15,000 union workers at 86 CT Stop & Shop grocery stores with a fair an equitable contract negotiated over the course of weeks becoming more urgent under a strike notice looming. In a final contract, parent company Ahold (also owns Giant & Peapod) of the Netherlands and Stop & Shop’s USA held tightly to concessions but in the end all sides could feel comfortable with the agreement. Union Members leaving the caucus included 20 year employee Joanne Albinger, “I felt the contract was fair given the economic climate, we still got a raise and a $750 flat bonus for full time workers, and a $400 bonus for part time workers after 24 months.” “Better than the doom and gloom that had been forecast,” said Assistant Deli Manager Paul Head, on the proceedings, 25 years on the job, now happy this was behind them. Brian Petronella, International Vice President and President Local 371 and the United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) http://www.ufcw371.org in Connecticut held an impromptu press conference after the vote. “Could they (Ahold/ Stop & Shop) have done better? Yes. At the end of the day, if you go out to the retail market, this is better than most.” Did he wish this was back in the day of 2007? You bet. Negotiations have been more difficult, companies, even those doing well are putting on the brakes as hard as they can. Are the hourly wage increase as much as he wanted? No, he tried to get an hourly increase of 10 cents but settled for 5 cents, keeping and increasing other benefits in return including protecting health insurance contributions at no charge for part time workers. The five New England Local Unions involved in the negotiations represent 15,000 Stop & Shop workers in CT; Stop & Shop employs 36,000 workers in New England. If a job action aka strike had occurred, Stop & Shop had prepared to hire replacement workers. Mr. Petronella pointed out they actually would have had 36,000 supermarket workers in agreement with other unions to honor the work stoppage, forcing them to shut down. While anti-union lobbyists and groups i.e. US Chamber of Congress use fear tactics to go viral to shut down unionizing and blocking the Card Check legislation, non-union retail workers could only wish for some of the negotiated protection including wage increases, bonus, and pension benefits. When a company’s focus is on helping workers achieve better wages, better benefits, and safer working conditions there wouldn’t be a need for Unions. Workers, who help make their company profitable, need what is rightfully theirs. One of many ways to help is by boycotting the self-serve check out that eliminates positions; another is by shopping at unionized stores whenever possible.

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Brown Tries to `Perversely’ Benefit From U.K. Relapse Risk Before Election

March 11, 2010

By Jennifer Ryan March 11 (Bloomberg) — Gordon Brown is trying to turn the threat of a double-dip U.K. recession into an advantage. The British prime minister, whose Labour Party is narrowing the gap in opinion polls with the opposition Conservatives, is arguing that the economic recovery is too “fragile” to justify cutting the U.K.’s record budget deficit right away. Brown is seeking a fourth term for Labour as Britain struggles to recover from its worst slump in six decades. While jobless claims are at the highest since the party came to power in 1997, opinion polls show that Brown has made up so much ground that David Cameron ’s Conservatives will fail to gain a majority in the election, which must happen by June. “A weak economy might perversely be good for Labour,” Jonathan Loynes , an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, said in a telephone interview. “To a degree it would support the government’s position that it shouldn’t try to tackle the budget deficit too quickly, and at the same time undermines the Conservatives’ position.” Reports this week showed factory production fell for the first time in five months in January, exports dropped the most in 3 1/2 years and evidence is mounting that a rebound in house prices is faltering after prices fell in February. “Although the economy is now growing, recovery is still in its early stages and remains very fragile,” Brown told business leaders in London yesterday. “We’re not going to withdraw the stimulus until the recovery is assured.” Deficit Squabble The Conservatives argue that the government should get to grips now with the budget deficit, which at 12 percent of gross domestic product is on a par with Greece’s. As Brown and Cameron squabble on the deficit, the Conservatives’ lead among voters is declining. The opposition party, which led by as much as 17 percentage points in polls in December, is now ahead by just 4 points, according to a YouGov Plc survey published in the Sun yesterday. That wouldn’t be enough to guarantee a majority in Parliament. “The Conservatives just haven’t convinced enough people that they’re going to be any better than Labour,” Steven Fielding , director of the Centre for British Politics at Nottingham University, said in a telephone interview. Labour, which presided over the first run on a British bank in more than a century when Northern Rock Plc nearly collapsed in 2007, is still lagging in voters’ perceptions of economic competence. In a YouGov poll published in the Sun this week, 36 percent of voters said the Conservatives were more likely to run the economy well, a six-point lead over Labour. Budget Due Fitch Ratings said this week that the U.K. needs to curb the deficit faster than planned by Brown, who argues that the economy needs support now against Conservative calls for spending cuts. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling will present his budget on March 24. Manufacturing unexpectedly shrank 0.9 percent in January, while the goods trade deficit swelled to 8 billion pounds ($12 billion), the widest in 17 months. Jobless benefit claims have reached the highest since Tony Blair led Labour to power almost 13 years ago and Lloyds Banking Group Plc’s Halifax division says house prices dropped 1.5 percent in February. Conservative Treasury spokesman George Osborne argued yesterday in an interview on Sky News that “all the economic data show Brown is making things worse.” For now, Britain’s economy is holding up better on some measures than those of other countries. The U.K.’s unemployment rate of 7.8 percent in the fourth quarter compares with 9.7 percent in the U.S. and 10 percent in the euro region. At 2.46 million, the number of jobless is below the 3 million level that former Bank of England policy maker David Blanchflower said in 2008 was possible over the next two years. “Labour’s benefiting from the horrendous predictions for the economy that came out a year ago,” Nottingham University’s Fielding said. “The economy’s not doing that well, but it isn’t as bad as people feared.” To contact the reporter on this story: Jennifer Ryan in London at jryan13@bloomberg.net

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Manufacturing in U.K. Unexpectedly Plunges as Brown Sees `Fragile’ Economy

March 10, 2010

By Jennifer Ryan March 10 (Bloomberg) — U.K. factory production unexpectedly fell in January for the first time in five months, a sign manufacturing is struggling to shake off the recession. Factory output dropped 0.9 percent from December, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists predicted a 0.2 percent increase, according to the median of 26 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey . Manufacturing expanded 0.2 percent from a year earlier, the first gain in almost two years. Prime Minister Gordon Brown, campaigning today for the election, said that the U.K.’s economic recovery is still “fragile” and in its early stages. Bank of England officials last week kept their bond-purchase plan at 200 billion pounds ($299 billion) for a second month as they assessed the strength of the pickup from the longest recession on record. “The headwinds for manufacturers are a lackluster pace of final demand growth and difficult financing conditions,” Philip Shaw , chief economist at Investec Securities in London, said in a telephone interview before the report. “The bank must still be nervous about downside risks to growth.” The pound fell as much as 0.3 percent after the report and traded at $1.4910 as of 9:33 a.m. in London, down 0.6 percent on the day. The yield on the benchmark two-year government bond was up 2 basis points today at 1.24 percent. Of the 13 categories in manufacturing, 11 fell, the statistics office said. The drop on the month was led by electrical and optical equipment, and chemicals and man-made fibers. Machinery and equipment, and food, drink and tobacco showed the only increases. ‘Bumpy’ Recovery Policy maker Kate Barker said March 8 that the U.K. faces a “bumpy” recovery and manufacturers haven’t yet benefited from the drop in the pound. Sterling has fallen about 25 percent in the last three years on a trade-weighted basis. Laird Plc, the biggest maker of electromagnetic shields for mobile phones, said today that revenue fell last year to 528.8 million pounds from 635.3 million pounds in 2008. “Trading conditions proved to be very challenging in 2009,” though “by the end of 2009 we had seen some recovery in a number of our markets,” Peter Hill, Laird’s chief executive officer, said in a statement. “The profile of an economic recovery remains uncertain.” Overall industrial production, which includes utilities and mining and quarrying and accounts for 17 percent of the economy, fell 0.4 percent on the month. Economists predicted a 0.3 percent gain, according to the median of 31 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. To contact the reporter on this story: Jennifer Ryan in London at jryan13@bloomberg.net

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U.K. Housing Gauge Shows Fewer Price Increases Than Forecast in February

March 9, 2010

By Svenja O’Donnell March 9 (Bloomberg) — A U.K. house price gauge showed fewer increases in values last month than economists forecast as more people tried to sell their homes, a sign the property market may be running out of steam. The number of real-estate agents and surveyors saying prices rose exceeded those reporting declines by 17 percentage points, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said in an e-mailed report today. Economists predicted 30 points, according to the median of 13 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. “The magnitude of the gains going forward is likely to continue to ease, reflecting the fact that new supply coming onto the market is starting to outstrip fresh demand,” Jeremy Leaf , spokesman for RICS, said in a statement. Britain’s housing market recovery has lost momentum this year with the election looming, an increase in transaction tax and colder-than-average winter weather. Bank of England policy maker Kate Barker said yesterday that the economic recovery may be on track, though it might face a “bumpy” path. New instructions outpaced new buyer inquiries in February, with a balance of 15 percent more surveyors reporting an increase in homes for sale, RICS said. Banks’ reluctance to lend is making it difficult for many Britons to acquire property. Banks granted 48,198 loans to buy homes in January, the least in eight months, Bank of England data showed on March 1. First-Time Buyers The proportion of first-time buyers who expect to enter the property market in the next 12 months fell to 25.8 percent in the first three months of the year, the third quarterly drop in the measure, Rightmove Plc said in a separate report today. “First-time buyers play a crucial role in keeping the market moving by helping to complete chains and their continued absence delays any prospect of a meaningful market recovery,” Miles Shipside , Rightmove’s commercial director, said in a statement. Prime Minister Gordon Brown ’s Labour Party and the opposition Conservatives are battling to convince voters they can steer Britain’s economic recovery while cutting its budget deficit , the biggest since World War II. The Conservatives had a 5-point lead in a YouGov Plc poll for the Sunday Times published on March 7. Gross domestic product rose 0.3 percent in the final three months of 2009, ending the deepest recession on record. The economy will expand 1 percent this year and 2.5 percent in 2011, while extra tax increases or spending cuts of 20 billion pounds ($30 billion) are needed by 2013 to close Britain’s fiscal gap, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLC said in a separate report today. “There are grounds for optimism from recent data that the recovery is broadly on track,” Barker said in a speech yesterday. “I don’t think it is yet possible to be confident in the pace of recovery and still expect the path to be bumpy. But some of the severe downside risks have diminished.” Retail sales rose last month, with sales at stores open at least 12 months rising 2.2 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 1.8 percent drop in the same month last year, a British Retail Consortium survey released today showed. To contact the reporter on this story: Svenja O’Donnell in London at sodonnell@bloomberg.net .

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City of London Developers to Start Skyscrapers as Rents End Two-Year Drop

March 9, 2010

By Chris Bourke March 9 (Bloomberg) — Brookfield Asset Management Inc. , owner of a stake in the U.K.’s tallest building, is about to start constructing an even higher tower in the City of London. The 64-story Pinnacle is currently the only major office project scheduled for completion after 2012 in the City, the capital’s main financial district. That may be about to change. Brookfield is seeking a site to build another office tower, this time as developer. Land Securities Group Plc , the U.K.’s largest real estate investment trust, is preparing to revive a skyscraper project it shelved two years ago. City of London real estate is becoming attractive again to companies like Toronto-based Brookfield after the worst recession on record stopped most development. A shortage of prime office space may push rents back to their 2007 peak in three years, according to King Sturge, a London-based broker. That’s encouraging other companies to follow Brookfield’s lead. “I’m not surprised that developers are sharpening their pencils again,” said Savvas Savouri , head of research at BH2, another broker based in the city. “The issue now is supply of space, not demand.” Brookfield’s construction workers are sealing the foundations of the Pinnacle, a tower commissioned by investors based in Saudi Arabia. When it’s finished, the building will have a height of 288 meters (945 feet), 53 more than the skyscraper in the Canary Wharf district that holds the U.K. record. Brookfield has a 15 percent stake in Canary Wharf Group Plc , the owner of that property at 1 Canada Square. Search for Sites The company’s development unit has seen some “interesting opportunities” for an office building in the City of London, according to James Tuckey , chairman of Brookfield’s European arm. Before proceeding with the development, Tuckey would like to secure tenants for most of the office space, he said. In the fourth quarter of 2009, financial companies agreed to lease the most space in the City of London in 30 years as they raced to find premises before rents started to rise. The amount of new space coming onto the market will fall to about 840,000 square feet (78,000 square meters) in 2011, the lowest on record, broker Drivers Jonas estimates. “Providing you’ve got the money and you’ve got the appetite for risk, I think between now and the end of next year is a very good time to start new developments,” said Gerald Ronson , chief executive officer of Heron International, in an interview at his London offices. “Those developments will be finished by 2013 and there’s nothing else in the marketplace.” Heron Tower Ronson is the developer of the Heron Tower, a 46-story skyscraper near Liverpool Street station that’s one of only two office buildings due to be completed in the City next year. In the past two months, contractors have received inquiries about building more City offices from U.K.-based developers, said Ashley Muldoon, Brookfield’s U.K. head of construction. Land Securities is preparing to revive a 155-meter tower, known as the Walkie-Talkie because of its resemblance to a two- way radio. The project, which will create 660,000 square feet of space, was shelved in 2008 as the financial crisis worsened. The London-based company has already asked contractors to provide estimates for building the tower. “Construction costs generally have reduced over the last 12 months, so it should come as no surprise if we were to market-test any of our potential schemes,” said Donal McCabe , a spokesman for the developer. In January, Land Securities announced plans to start three developments in the West End shopping district this year costing a total of 655 million pounds ($990 million). Giant Crater Land Securities has almost completed a 541 million-pound building with 50,000 square meters of offices and stores facing St Paul’s Cathedral, called One New Change . In January, the REIT said it had found tenants for a third of the office space. The Walkie-Talkie will be 25 percent bigger. The proposed site at 20 Fenchurch Street, about three minutes’ walk from the Pinnacle site on Bishopsgate, is still just a giant crater. “While third-party investors have yet to test the market, developers with their own money are deciding to proceed and placing their balance sheet at risk,” said Michael Marx , CEO of London-based Development Securities Plc, builder of the Paddington Central office complex on the edge of the West End. Great Portland Estates Plc, an investment trust that halted most of its projects in 2008, is also viewing more sites in the City, CEO Toby Courtauld said in a telephone interview. About 80 percent of Great Portland’s properties are in the West End. ‘Sensible Prices’ “If land is priced appropriately and we can pick things up at sensible prices, we would develop in the City,” Courtauld said. “Broadly, the market across central London is looking very tightly supplied a few years out.” Great Portland already owns about 2.6 million square feet of development sites in central London. Two are in the City of London and will be started next year, Courtauld said. They include a skyscraper near the Heron Tower with 815,000 square feet of office space. The company has about 470 million pounds of cash or unused credit to invest after selling shares in 2009. Developers have typically relied on equity partners or debt to proceed with new buildings. A 30 percent decline in rents in the last two years has made it harder for them to take out construction loans without having a tenant in place. Most companies that want to build are planning to use funds they raised during the recession by selling shares or properties. Speculative Developments “One or two banks might consider lending on speculative developments in extremely limited circumstances, but we’ve not seen any opportunities that meet their criteria,” said Caroline Snowden, director at property-finance broker J.C. Rathbone Associates Ltd . The developer of the Pinnacle, a company with the same name, has so far raised 320 million pounds from 60 investors, enough to pay for the first floor. It will need to borrow an additional 525 million pounds by the end of next year to complete the tower by 2013, according to Arab Investments Ltd., the London-based development manager. To secure a loan of that size, the company will need to find businesses to occupy about 40 percent of the Pinnacle’s 1 million square feet of office space, said Khalid Affara, managing director of Arab Investments. Tenants have already leased about 200,000 square feet in advance. They include law firm Davies Arnold Cooper , which is taking about 80,000 square feet of space at 65 pounds a square foot, or a third more than the current market rate, Affara said. He is talking to three other potential tenants about leasing an additional 200,000 to 300,000 square feet. Rob Dwyer, a spokesman for Davies Arnold Cooper, declined to comment. Hiring Plans Some banks, insurers and other financial companies based in the City need space because they’re hiring for the first time in about three years. By 2012, the number of people working in the district will rise to about 325,000 from 305,000 last year, the Centre for Economics and Business Research estimates. That would still be less than the 354,000 employed there in 2007. Even so, the increase in demand for new offices may not be sustainable. While the U.K. economy emerged from the recession in the fourth quarter, officials including Bank of England Governor Mervyn King say the recovery remains fragile. That may discourage companies from employing more people. “Property needs debt and property needs occupiers, and for the next two years we’re going to be short on both,” said Mike Slade , CEO of property developer Helical Bar Plc . “Offices are going to be built only by people who can withstand the pressure.” Institutional Investors Helical Bar plans to develop two sites in the City, though it may not do so for another year. By then, cash-rich insurance companies and pension funds may start investing in office projects again, Slade said. Such companies were traditional backers of developments before banks embarked on a lending spree to the industry in the five years to mid-2007. “The safest place to be in property at the moment is developing speculative offices for the long term,” said Development Securities’ Marx. “Getting institutional investors to part with their cash in the current environment is another thing, but I do know that they’re beginning to think about it.” Development Securities is seeking sites for new projects in the City, he said. Expiring Leases Leases on about 15 million square feet of central London office space are due to expire over the next five years, according to broker Knight Frank LLP. City of London expirations will peak over 2014 and 2015, when leases on about 7.2 million square feet of offices will end. About 30 percent of those expirations will probably lead to a tenant changing offices, said Will Beardmore-Gray, Knight Frank’s head of City leasing, at a presentation in London last month. One company that doesn’t have any development plans is British Land Co ., the U.K.’s second-largest REIT, CEO Chris Grigg said last month. In 2008, the company halted construction of a 225-meter skyscraper at 122 Leadenhall, nicknamed the Cheesegrater, which was to be the City’s tallest building. The empty site is in the middle of a triangle of well-known towers: Tower 42, the City of London’s first skyscraper; the Swiss Reinsurance Co. tower known as the Gherkin and the headquarters of Lloyd’s of London. The crater, next to the Pinnacle site, is sealed off by 15-foot-high fences emblazoned with the Mahatma Gandhi quote, “Be the change you want to see in the world.” The fencing’s license from the City of London council expired in December, according to a notice pinned to it. To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Bourke in London at cbourke4@bloomberg.net .

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Storm’s Insured Losses May Be $350 Million After Record New York Snowfall

March 5, 2010

By Dan Reichl March 5 (Bloomberg) — The storm that hit the U.S. East Coast last week, bringing record snow to New York City and power failures to New England, may have caused $350 million in insured losses, a catastrophe risk-modeling firm said. Insured losses may be in the range of $150 million to $350 million, Boston-based AIR Worldwide said today in an e-mailed statement. Including damage done by two earlier storms, insured losses in the month of February may be as high as $1.35 billion, the firm said. The latest storm pushed New York City’s snowfall for the season to more than 50 inches (127 centimeters) and set a record for the month of February in Central Park. More than 700,000 customers lost electrical power. Insurers may face claims after winds damaged buildings and roofs buckled under the accumulated weight of multiple storms, said Peter Dailey , director of atmospheric science at AIR Worldwide. “Damage to both structures and automobiles from fallen trees is also likely,” Dailey said in the statement. “While individual claims are not expected to be severe, the number of claims could be significant because the storm impacted a very wide area from New Jersey to Maine.” To contact the reporter on this story: Dan Reichl in San Francisco at dreichl@bloomberg.net

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Batista’s OSX May Raise $5.52 Billion in Top Emerging-Market IPO This Year

March 2, 2010

By Peter Millard and Alexander Ragir March 2 (Bloomberg) — OSX Brasil SA may raise 9.92 billion reais ($5.52 billion) in its initial public offering, the most in emerging markets this year, as billionaire Eike Batista aims to repeat past IPO successes and beat a global slump. The Rio de Janeiro-based shipbuilding and oil-services company controlled by Batista plans to sell 5.5 million shares priced from 1,000 reais to 1,333.33 reais on March 17, according to a prospectus published in Brazilian newspaper Valor Economico today. OSX is scheduled to begin trading on March 19 and said it may sell an additional 1.9 million shares. Batista’s decision to sell OSX comes after companies from QuinStreet Inc. and Travelport Ltd. to Brazil’s Multiplus SA postponed sales or raised less than they sought amid concern Greece may fail to pay its debt. Batista has taken four companies public since 2006, including OGX Petroleo & Gas Participacoes SA, whose sale in June 2008 was Brazil’s biggest at the time. Three of them trade above their IPO prices. “If anyone can do this, it’s probably him,” Felipe Ruppenthal , an analyst at Geracao Futuro Corretora de Valores in Porto Alegre, Brazil, said in a telephone interview. “He’s done some IPOs with very good valuations, which includes OGX.” The share sale would top the world’s two largest IPOs this year after United Co. Rusal raised HK$17.39 billion ($2.24 billion) in January and Huatai Securities Co. sold 15.69 billion yuan ($2.3 billion) of stock last month. Batista is attempting to take advantage of investor demand for oil services companies and Brazil’s policy of preferential treatment for domestic companies that provide products for the nation’s oil industry. Insurer IPO Dai-ichi Mutual Life Insurance Co., Japan’s second-largest life insurer, said last month that it plans to raise about 1.1 trillion yen ($12 billion) in an initial public offering to fund acquisitions and ventures as its domestic market wanes. Batista’s OGX gained 37 percent from its August 2008 start, while LLX Logistica SA , Batista’s port company, jumped 97 percent since it went public in July 2008. “Depending on the price and the demand, we will want to participate in the OSX IPO,” Rogerio Freitas , a fund manager at Teorica Investimentos in Rio de Janeiro who owns shares of OGX, Batista’s oil company, said today in a telephone interview. “Batista always thinks about the whole supply chain. When he thought about OGX, he thought about OSX.” Excess Capacity OSX will provide services to OGX and other oil companies, including state-controlled Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Freitas said. Rio de Janeiro-based Petrobras aims to more than double oil production to 5.7 million barrels a day by 2020 as it develops fields in the so-called pre-salt region, which is located off Brazil’s coast and holds oil deposits under a layer of salt. Still, Christopher Palmer , who oversees $5 billion as the head of global emerging markets stocks for Gartmore Investment Management in London, said the company will have to prove it can be competitive regardless of Brazil’s local content policy. “There is plenty of excess capacity to build ships and exactly the types of items OSX wants to manufacture,” he said today in a telephone interview. “When it comes to prices, investors are going to be looking closely and comparing it to its Asian counterparts.” Slowing Demand The IPO also comes amid some signs of slowing demand for Brazilian shares. International Meal Company Holdings SA and its shareholders asked Brazil’s securities regulator to cancel its planned initial public offering last month, citing “economic uncertainties in the Brazilian and international markets.” The companies that sold shares in IPOs this year, Multiplus SA and Aliansce Shopping Centers SA, raised less than they sought. The share sale would be Brazil’s biggest since Banco Santander SA’s local unit sold a record 12.3 billion reais of shares. “If it’s a good company, there will be demand independent of the stock market,” Teorica’s Freitas said of the OSX sale. The Tupi field, in the pre-salt region, was the biggest discovery in the America’s since Mexico’s Cantarell field in 1976 and may hold as many as 8 billion barrels of oil. Petrobras plans to invest $174.4 billion in the five years through 2013 to boost production. OGX, which has potential resources of 6.7 billion barrels, tripled in Sao Paulo trading last year as it struck oil in several of its wells. The company said it has about $4 billion for investments in exploration, production and new businesses. Brazil’s Veja magazine reported Dec. 19 that Batista plans to raise $10 billion in May by selling shares of his EBX Group holding company in an initial public offering, without identifying where it got the information. OSX’s sale comes as IPOs slump from New York to London. Seven U.S. companies, from Imperial Capital Group Inc. in Los Angeles to Fort Lauderdale, Florida-based Patriot Risk Management Inc. have delayed or postponed sales this year. New York-based Blackstone Group LP’s Travelport Ltd. and New Look Group Plc of Weymouth, England, pulled London offerings. Moscow-based Rusal, the world’s largest aluminum producer, has retreated 30 percent since completing the first Hong Kong listing of a Russian company in January. To contact the reporter on this story: Laura Price in London at lprice3@bloomberg.net

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Redrow’s Morgan Aims to Revive His Company With Shift to Higher-End Homes

March 2, 2010

By Tim Barwell March 2 (Bloomberg) — Steve Morgan , who took the job of chairman at Redrow Plc for the second time almost 12 months ago, said the U.K. homebuilder’s biggest mistake during his nine-year absence was shifting to the low end of the market. Morgan, a 57-year-old native of Liverpool, created the company in 1974 and said he was dismayed to see its houses and apartments “dumbed down” to appeal to lower income buyers after he left in 2000. The decision to return was prompted by an 18-month spell during which the shares plunged 85 percent, shrinking the value of his 6.5 percent stake. “It’s in my blood,” Morgan said in an interview in London. “It was still my baby, the business I started from scratch.” The decision by Redrow’s management to build more apartments and fewer more-expensive houses sacrificed profit, Morgan said. Redrow’s average price of 137,400 pounds ($206,000) was the lowest in the industry last year and compares with the average of 179,639 pounds for the seven publicly traded U.K. homebuilders, according to Citigroup Inc. Apartments rose as a proportion of total construction during Britain’s decade-long property boom, as developers tapped demand from buyers who planned to rent out the properties. Detached houses fell to 12 percent of homes built in 2008 from 44 percent in 1997, according to the latest annual data from the National House-Building Council . The pendulum is now swinging back, with companies including Redrow and Taylor Wimpey Plc, the U.K.’s second-biggest homebuilder by volume, reducing the proportion of apartments in their construction plans. Slashing Products Morgan is now Redrow’s largest shareholder with a stake of almost 16 percent in his name, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Since rejoining the company, he has slashed the number of products by more than half to 32 and introduced a range of costlier houses he expects will account for 80 percent of sales in 2012. Last year, about half of Redrow’s revenue came from apartments. “It’s returning Redrow to what they did very well in the 1980s and 1990s,” said Rachael Waring , a Liverpool-based analyst at Panmure Gordon & Co with a “hold” rating on the stock. “However, it will take some time to work.” Redrow, based in St. David’s Park in northern Wales, has climbed about 31 percent since the company announced Morgan’s intention to return a year ago, even though the company hasn’t made a profit since the property market peaked in 2007. That exceeds the 23 percent gain in the Bloomberg EMEA Homebuilders Index . Redrow now has a market value of 415 million pounds. ‘How Many Units?’ “The second I had gone they started to dumb down the product,” Morgan said of the previous management. “They got rid of the attention to detail that the product used to have and they made it cheaper. When I came back in, the psyche of the business was: ‘How many units, how many units?’” Morgan has an estimated net worth of about 350 million pounds according to the 2009 Sunday Times Rich List . He also owns the English Premier League soccer team Wolverhampton Wanderers. At the age of 21, Morgan set up Redrow as a civil engineering business with a 5,000-pound loan from his father. He went into homebuilding five years later and remained at the helm until October 2000. Redrow had net income of 50.4 million pounds on sales of 405.7 million pounds in fiscal 2000, the last year of results before Morgan left. It reported a loss of about 100 million pounds last year, in what Morgan called the “worst set of trading results” in the company’s history. Morgan Comes Back Morgan told Redrow last March that he wanted to rejoin management after increasing his stake to 29.9 percent, just short of a 30 percent holding that would trigger a mandatory offer for the remaining shares. He built up the holding by buying shares from the London-based hedge fund Toscafund Asset Management LLP through his investment vehicles. Only one board member appointed before Morgan’s return remains at the company following the departure of former Finance Director David Arnold this year. Paul Pedley , who was chief executive officer of Redrow for five years after Morgan left before becoming deputy chairman, declined a request for an interview. Most U.K. homebuilders reported losses last year after banks cut back on mortgage lending and many have sold shares to raise money. Prices of detached houses fell 16 percent from the peak of the market in October 2007 through last March, to an average of 211,595 pounds, according to Nationwide Building Society. Apartments dropped 22 percent to 109,708 pounds. Recovery May Stall Home prices overall have rebounded 9.2 percent in the past year, Nationwide data show. Even so, mortgage approvals dropped in January by more than economists forecast to an eight-month low, adding to evidence that the housing-market recovery may be losing momentum, the Bank of England said yesterday. The number of Britons renting their homes will increase for at least the next decade as limited financing options shut out first-time buyers, according to Savills Plc. That means Morgan may be facing a dwindling pool of buyers for his houses. Redrow’s first line of single-family homes introduced since Morgan’s return, called the New Heritage Collection, is influenced by the Arts and Crafts design movement of the early 1900s, he said. Features include kitchens with floor-to-ceiling units and timber or tiled canopies over doors and windows. ‘Win Me Over’ “This idea needs to win me over,” Robin Hardy , an analyst at KBC Peel Hunt in London, said of Redrow’s New Heritage range. Hardy has a “sell” rating on the stock. “It’s dressing a different exterior on a house without changing the interior.” The new houses may not be as profitable as Morgan thinks, according to Hardy. Redrow may struggle to pass on all of the costs of higher-end fittings such as central kitchen islands and extra plumbing needed for bigger houses, and should be concentrating on slashing building costs to fatten its margins, the analyst said. Prices for a typical three-bedroom home in the New Heritage collection range from 160,000 pounds to 190,000 pounds. Panmure’s Waring estimates that Redrow’s average selling price will swell to 173,000 pounds by 2012. Morgan said he is banking on a revival in Britons’ preference for single-family houses to help make Redrow profitable again. His instincts have served him well in the past. Sensing that the market was overheating, he sold all of Redrow’s sites in southeast England in 1988 before prices fell. He then re- entered the region in 1993 at the bottom of the market with the acquisition of Costain Plc’s house building division. “One of the benefits of having a few gray hairs is that I’ve been round the block before,” Morgan said. “Now it feels like I’ve never been away, particularly now we’re getting the product that’s right for the business back in again.” To contact the reporter on this story: Tim Barwell in London on tbarwell@bloomberg.net

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Soros Signals Gold Bubble as Momentary Buyer While Goldman Predicts Record

March 1, 2010

By Nicholas Larkin and Pham-Duy Nguyen March 1 (Bloomberg) — George Soros is helping drive up gold prices by doubling his bet in a market even he considers a “bubble” as Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Barclays Capital and HSBC Holdings Plc predict more gains before it bursts. Soros Fund Management LLC, which manages about $25 billion, increased its investment in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest exchange-traded fund for the metal, by 152 percent in the fourth quarter, a Feb. 16 Securities and Exchange Commission filing shows. While prices have fallen 8.9 percent since reaching a record on Dec. 3, 15 of 22 analysts in a Bloomberg survey say gold will reach a new high, with the median forecast predicting a 16 percent advance to as much as $1,300 an ounce this year. “When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment,” Soros said at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, in January. “The ultimate asset bubble is gold,” he said. In a Jan. 28 Bloomberg Television interview, the 79-year- old billionaire recalled that former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned of “irrational exuberance” in financial markets three years before the technology bubble burst in 2000. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 89 percent in the period. Buying at the start of a bubble is “rational,” Soros said. Gold’s fourfold rally since the end of 2000 has also attracted money managers John Paulson , Paul Tudor Jones and David Einhorn . Paulson’s Credit Opportunities Fund soared almost sixfold in 2007 by betting that subprime mortgages would plummet. Einhorn said in October that his Greenlight Capital Inc. bought gold to bet against the dollar. ‘Just an Asset’ Tudor Investment Corp., based in Greenwich, Connecticut, increased its stake in Newmont Mining Corp., the largest U.S. gold producer, almost fourfold in the final quarter of 2009. Gold is “just an asset that, like everything else in life, has its time and place. And now is that time,” Paul Tudor Jones said in an October letter to clients. Funds of the four-biggest ETF firms hold 1,583 metric tons of the metal, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Only the central banks or governments of the U.S., Germany, Italy and France and the International Monetary Fund hold more. Investment demand , including in bars and coins, doubled to 1,820 tons last year as investors sought a refuge from the global recession, according to GFMS Ltd. That exceeded jewelry demand for the first time in three decades, the London-based research firm said Jan. 13. Prices reached the record $1,226.56 a decade after the metal fell to a 20-year low of $251.95 amid sales by central banks. Gold was at $1,117.15 today in London. Dollar Rally The price fell as the economic recovery sparked a dollar rally that has pushed the U.S. Dollar Index , a gauge against six counterparts, up 3.5 percent this year. Gold ended last week at $1,117.60, up 18 percent in the past 12 months and 21 percent since the start of the third quarter, when Soros accumulated 2.44 million shares of the SPDR Gold Trust. “Perhaps Soros thinks gold is going to bubble but the bubble is going to last for a while and he wants to profit from it,” said Jeffrey Nichols, managing director of American Precious Metals Advisors and an adviser to central banks and mining companies. “We could have a bubble but gold can reach $2,000 or $3,000 before it’s over.” Soros’ New York-based firm became the fourth-biggest investor in the SPDR Gold Trust by the end of 2009, 17 years after he made $1 billion breaking the Bank of England’s defense of the pound. The SPDR fund holds 1,107 tons, more than either Switzerland or China. Paulson, Einhorn Paulson & Co. is the ETF’s biggest investor, with 31.5 million shares, regulatory filings show. With each representing almost a 10th of an ounce of gold, the hedge fund firm’s stake is the equivalent of about 96 tons, exceeding the holdings of Australia and Kuwait. New York-based Paulson is also the biggest investor in Johannesburg-based AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. , Africa’s top producer. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF is Einhorn’s seventh-largest holding, according to a Feb. 16 filing. Goldman predicts gold will reach $1,235 in three months and $1,380 in 12 months. Barclays Capital says the metal will average $1,235 in the fourth quarter. HSBC says it may peak at $1,300 this year. “I absolutely believe it’s heading into a bubble, but that’s why you buy it,” said Charles Morris , who manages $2.5 billion at HSBC Global Asset Management’s Absolute Return Fund in London. “A bubble is good,” he said, forecasting the metal may rise to $5,000 in five years to explain why 11 percent of his fund is in gold. World Economic Growth The metal dropped from the record high as recovering economies pushed up the dollar. The Washington-based IMF increased its forecast for world economic growth in 2010 to 3.9 percent in January, from 3.1 percent in October. Gold may drop 28 percent to $800 this year if the U.S. raises interest rates, said New York-based Tom Winmill , who manages $120 million at the Midas Fund. Gold generally only earns interest for banks that lend it, so its lure over cash diminishes as borrowing costs increase. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Feb. 24 that the U.S. economy is in a “nascent” recovery that still requires low borrowing costs. U.S. policy makers likely will start raising the target rate for overnight loans between banks from the record low range of zero to 0.25 percent in the third quarter, according to the median estimate of 72 economists. ‘Very Expensive’ “Gold looks very expensive right now,” said Brian Nick , an investment strategist at Barclays Wealth in New York, which manages $221 billion. “Yes, rates are low but are they low enough to produce runaway inflation? Actual inflation numbers haven’t pointed to a worrying trend” that would prompt Fed action to cool an overheating economy, he said. U.S. consumer prices will rise 2.15 percent this year, compared with last year’s 0.35 percent decline, according to the median of 60 estimates. Stock-option traders are boosting bearish bets against gold-mining companies’ shares, paying the most in more than a year for options to protect them from declines. Bearish options on the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, which tracks 31 producers, were 12 percent more expensive than bullish ones last week, the highest premium since December 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Hedge funds and speculators are paring bets that gold will keep rising. There were 200,622 more outstanding futures contracts that profit on the metal gaining than wagers that pay when prices fall as of Feb. 23, down from 262,331 in November, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. More Bullish Traders remain more bullish than in past years, with speculative long bets on gold on the New York Mercantile Exchange outnumbering short wagers by more than 7-to-1, compared with less than 5-to-1 in the three years before the September 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. spurred demand for gold’s perceived safety. Central banks likely will expand their reserves for a second straight year, said CPM Group, a New York commodities researcher. The last time they added to stockpiles, in 1988, gold fell 15 percent and then took 15 years to recoup its losses, suggesting they may not be the best indicator of investment timing. Central banks hold about 18 percent of all gold ever mined. Through the end of last year, gold was up about 29 percent since its 1980 peak. In that same period, Treasuries rose about 1,090 percent. The S&P 500 earned more than 2,300 percent with dividends reinvested over the three decades. Even cash in the average U.S. checking account outdid gold, gaining 92 percent. Premature Bubble The combined holdings of the biggest ETF providers — State Street Corp., ETF Securities Ltd., Zuercher Kantonalbank and Barclays Capital — rose more than 16 times from 95 tons five years ago. It may be premature to declare a bubble by the standards of other commodities. Copper rose 188 percent in the year to May 2006 before falling 38 percent in nine months. Crude oil doubled in about 11 months before peaking in July 2008 and slumped 77 percent in the next five. Gold hasn’t had a 12-month gain of more than 55 percent since October 1980. Adjusted for inflation , it’s still worth about half of its 20th century peak of $850 on Jan. 21, 1980. Touradji Capital Management LP founder Paul Touradji said in a March 2008 letter to his hedge fund clients that the commodity market was a “buying orgy” of inflated prices. Oil, which had gained 80 percent in the previous 12 months, went up 35 percent more in the next four months. Touradji’s largest equity holding at the end of the fourth quarter was a stake in Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp., the world’s biggest producer of the metal. “Gold makes sense as an investment,” said Jeffrey Christian , the managing director of CPM Group. “Just because the price of gold is going up for the 10th year doesn’t mean it’s a bubble.” To contact the reporters on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net ; Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at pnguyen@bloomberg.net .

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Pound Drops to 10-Month Low, Gilts Fall as Conservative Party Lead Narrows

March 1, 2010

By Keith Jenkins and Anchalee Worrachate March 1 (Bloomberg) — The pound tumbled to the lowest in almost 10 months against the dollar and gilts fell as polls showed the U.K. may elect its first minority government since 1974, hampering efforts to cut the nation’s record deficit. Sterling slid below $1.50 for the first time since May 8 and depreciated against all 16 of the most widely traded currencies as a poll showed the opposition Conservative Party has its smallest lead over the ruling Labour Party in more than two years. Elections must be held by June. Traders increased bets the pound will decline further against the dollar, according to the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission. “The political development added to the negative sentiment about the pound,” said Audrey Childe-Freeman , a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman Ltd. in London. “Political uncertainty means the risk of a hung parliament is increasing. You will need a government with a strong majority to push ahead with reforms that the U.K. needs. We are bearish on the pound.” The pound dropped 1.6 percent to $1.4993 as of 10:56 a.m. in London from $1.5238 at the end of last week. It weakened earlier to $1.5097, the lowest level since May 14. Sterling depreciated 1.5 percent to 90.79 per euro from 89.46 pence last week, trading above 90 pence per euro for the first time since Jan. 12. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a decline in the pound compared with those on a gain — so-called net shorts — was 62,884 on Feb. 23, compared with net shorts of 56,079 a week earlier, the figures from the CFTC on Feb. 26 showed. Poll Declines The U.K. currency has dropped in value by 7.4 percent against the dollar and 2.5 percent versus the euro this year as investors concern over fiscal austerity are heightened by the problems surrounding Greece’s budget deficit. Poll declines for the Conservatives, who called for spending cuts to start this year, are making investors skeptical that citizens will elect a government strong enough to contain the budget deficit. At more than 12 percent of gross domestic product, the U.K. shortfall is on a par with that of Greece. Turcan Connell, an Edinburgh-based money manager that caters to rich families, expects the pound to lose between 20 percent and 30 percent against the dollar. Concern that Greece won’t be able to cut its budget deficit helped send the euro 5 percent lower against the dollar this year. ‘Alarm Bells’ “Alarm bells were ringing in Greece for a long time and when it happened, it happened very quickly,” said Haig Bathgate , head of strategy at Turcan Connell. “The U.K. is in a similar predicament. It could be hit very hard.” The 10-year gilt yield rose 4 basis points to 4.07 percent. The two-year note yield gained 5 basis points to 0.99 percent. U.K. bond yields may rise faster relative to those in euro- denominated government debt given the election uncertainty, analysts at Deutsche Bank AG wrote in a report dated Feb. 26. “From a sentiment perspective, if the concerns over peripheral Europe linger on, the spotlight will remain on U.K. fiscal consolidation measures,” wrote the analysts, including London-based Mohit Kumar . Gilts were also pushed lower as German lawmakers said euro- area officials were creating a package to grant Greece about 25 billion euros ($34 billion) in aid should it need help financing its debt, damping demand for what investors consider safer government debt. “The news on Greece unwinds the flight-to-quality demand to a degree,” said Jason Simpson , an interest-rate strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. Bank of England policy makers voted last month to pause their bond-buying program after purchasing 200 billion pounds of securities to help revive the economy. All 45 economists in a Bloomberg News survey expect the central bank to announce no extension to the program at Thursday’s policy meeting. All 60 economists in a separate Bloomberg survey estimate the Bank of England will keep its main interest rate unchanged at a record low 0.5 percent. To contact the reporters on this story: Keith Jenkins in London at Kjenkins3@bloomberg.net ; Anchalee Worrachate in London at Aworrachate@bloomberg.net .

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New York City May Get 18 Inches of Snow as Wind Brings Blizzard Conditions

February 26, 2010

By Brian K. Sullivan and Alex Morales Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) — New York City closed all public schools as the U.S. National Weather Service extended its winter storm warning for the metropolitan area until 6 a.m. tomorrow, saying the city faced “near-blizzard” conditions. The storm, which began about 8 a.m. yesterday, is forecast to leave 18 inches (46 centimeters) or more as it lashes the largest U.S. city with winds up to 35 mph (56 kph). By 6 a.m., 16.9 inches had fallen in Central Park, the agency said. “An intense storm will drift from Connecticut southwestward into the New York City metropolitan area today,” the service said. Snow, wind and ice “will make travel very hazardous or impossible.” Airlines including Continental Airlines Inc. canceled hundreds of flights after snow began falling yesterday. Speculation that the snows would reduce demand for motor fuel contributed to a drop in gasoline futures. All New York City public schools will close today because of the snow, the city’s Department of Education said on its Web site . AccuWeather Inc. warned of downed trees and power lines and said winds may cause whiteouts in some areas. A man was killed by a falling tree branch in New York’s Central Park, WNBC reported. “This will be a heavy wet snow and will be more difficult than usual to shovel, possibly causing back, shoulder and wrist injuries, and even heart attacks if not handled properly,” the weather service said. Second Storm The current system is the second winter storm of the week for the U.S. Northeast. It came just weeks after parts of the mid-Atlantic region set seasonal records for snowfall. Gasoline for March delivery declined 6.17 cents, or 2.9 percent, to settle yesterday at $2.037 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange. “Demand numbers are going to be annihilated by the bad weather,” said Ray Carbone , president of Paramount Options Inc. in New York and a trader at the Nymex. New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority said on its Web site that all subways, buses, railroads, bridges and tunnels will operate a “normal or near-normal morning rush hour,” except for the Metro-North Railroad, which will run a special service , with 5-to-10 minute delays possible. More than 1,500 flights were halted across the Northeast yesterday, most of them in New York, Boston and Philadelphia. That represented about 3 percent of the 50,000 flights scheduled in the U.S. this time of year, according to FlightStats.com , a Web site that tracks aircraft movements. Flights Canceled Continental canceled flights including all 200 of its regional partner airlines from Newark’s Liberty International Airport, said Mary Clark , a spokeswoman for the carrier. Amtrak canceled eight trains on its Empire Service line in upstate New York yesterday. Some service between New York City and Albany-Rensselaer was temporarily reduced. CSX Corp., which owns the line, repairs tracks and systems damaged by trees, said Tracy Connell , a spokeswoman for the passenger railway. CSX, the third-largest U.S. railroad by revenue, said its customers should expect delays during “the worst of the storm” and that its effects will linger through the weekend. The lines are used by shippers including coal producers. Two crude oil tankers put off unloading in Portland, Maine, at least until today, said Tony Youells, port manager for Inchcape Shipping Services , a shipping agent. Waves as high as 25 feet are forecast in the waters off Maine according to the National Weather Sevice. ‘Battering Waves’ “Large battering waves will cause a prolonged period of beach erosion with periods of significant splash-over and possible coastal flooding near the times of high tide,” the service’s office in Gray, Maine, said in an advisory. Winter storm warnings, meaning heavy snow, ice and freezing rain are imminent, were issued from Maryland to Maine. Blizzard warnings stretched from the mountains of North Carolina into West Virginia. Warnings for gusts as high as 65 miles per hour were posted for parts of North Carolina, Virginia, Vermont, Maryland and the District of Columbia. About 75,000 customers in New York and New England were already without power as the storm moved through the Northeast, according to utilities. A system brought rain to New York City and almost two feet of snow to western Massachusetts starting Feb. 23, disrupting air traffic in Newark, Boston, Baltimore and New York. To contact the reporters on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net ; Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.net

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European Economy Risks Decoupling From Global Recovery as Deficits Balloon

February 26, 2010

By Mark Deen Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) — Europe’s economy may be coming unstuck from the global recovery as governments to the south of the region struggle to reverse budget deficits and consumers in the north pull back spending. After the 16-nation euro economy almost stagnated in the fourth quarter, data this week showed the weakness reaching into 2010. Confidence among households and companies worsened unexpectedly, French consumer spending fell and bank loans to the private sector slid for a fifth month. At the same time, Standard & Poor’s said it may soon downgrade Greece again as the country grapples with the region’s largest budget shortfall. Signs of a flagging recovery risk extending the euro’s slide against the dollar. They are also prompting Citigroup Inc. to advise investors to favor German government bonds and UBS AG to recommend European stocks with links to the faster-growing U.S., such as Daimler AG . As they cut their growth forecasts, economists predict slower interest-rate increases from the European Central Bank, whose governing council meets next week. “Europe is where we see the biggest risk of a double dip at the global level,” said Julian Callow , chief European economist at Barclays Capital in London. “Europe has been lagging and we’ve continued to see better numbers in Asia and now the U.S.” The European Commission yesterday said the euro-area recovery may not gather momentum until the fourth quarter and maintained its forecast for 0.7 percent growth this year. Citigroup cut its 2010 growth prediction to 1.1 percent, while raising its projection for the U.S. to 3.2 percent. ECB Policy Having begun the year predicting the ECB would lift its benchmark interest rate from a record low of 1 percent in the second quarter and to 2 percent by the end of the year, economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch now don’t expect any increase until December. Still, ECB policy makers meeting in Frankfurt on March 4 will take decisions on a further “gradual” phasing out of emergency measures introduced to fight the financial crisis, council member George Provopoulos said in an interview on Feb. 19. After already announcing the end of its 12- and 6-month loans, President Jean-Claude Trichet has indicated the bank may return to an auction procedure in some of its refinancing operations as a next step. Stocks Decline The outlook for the economy is unnerving investors and taking its toll on stocks. While the S&P 500 Index in the U.S. has risen 3.8 percent this year, Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 50 has dropped 9.5 percent, giving up almost half of its 2009 gain. The euro has fallen almost 6 percent against the dollar this year on speculation the U.S. will recover faster and concerns about Greece’s fiscal problems. That decline may continue, according to Chris Turner , head of foreign-exchange strategy at ING Financial Markets, who says the euro “will struggle” to return to $1.37 and is more likely to slip to $1.30. The currency was at $1.3499 late yesterday in London. Investors should favor German bonds over U.S. Treasuries because the ECB will lag behind the Federal Reserve in raising rates, Citigroup said on Feb. 23. At UBS, strategist Nick Nelson says that European companies making more than a quarter of their sales in the U.S. may benefit from the dollar’s strength and the U.S. rebound. “There are tentative signs that the U.S. economy may be pulling ahead from Europe,” Nelson said in a Feb. 23 report, which cited luxury carmaker Daimler and publisher Wolters Kluwer NV among potential winners. ‘Stalled’ The euro-area is also troubling policy makers abroad. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said on Feb. 23 that indications the U.K.’s largest trading partner has “stalled” threatens U.K. exports. Alcatel-Lucent SA , the world’s biggest supplier of fixed- line phone networks, this month lowered its 2010 profit-margin targets. RWE AG , Germany’s second-largest utility, yesterday reduced its earnings growth forecast because of delays in developing power plants as well as oil and gas projects. “It will take several years for the European economy to return to the level seen in 2008,” RWE Chief Executive Officer Juergen Grossmann said. Rising borrowing costs on the back of Greece’s mounting fiscal problems may further undermine Europe’s economy. The impact of sliding sovereign bonds could be “broader, weighing further on the recovery” by pushing up financing costs, the commission said yesterday. Growth Brake The drive to shrink budget deficits in Greece, Spain, Portugal and elsewhere is another potential brake. Barclays’s Callow estimates that countries representing 20 percent of the euro region’s output will have a fiscal tightening of 2 percent of gross domestic product in 2010. “The sovereign debt crisis in Europe’s periphery reinforces drags on euro-area growth,” said Michael Saunders , an economist at Citigroup in London. Consumers will also keep retrenching as unemployment rises from December’s 11-year high after climbing slowly last year when government aid limited firings, said Gilles Moec , an economist at Deutsche Bank AG in London. Spending may also suffer as governments cut programs used to stoke consumer demand in 2009. “Now we’re getting the backlash,” said Moec, who predicts global and euro-zone growth of 4.1 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively, this year. “Domestic demand is feeling the lagged effects of the recession.” To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Deen in Paris at markdeen@bloomberg.net

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Video: Gahbauer Says U.K. House Price Gains May Stall in 2010

February 26, 2010

Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) — Martin Gahbauer, chief economist at Nationwide Building Society, talks with Bloomberg’s Rishaad Salamat about U.K. house prices, which fell in February for the first time in 10 months as winter weather and higher taxes on transactions deterred buyers. Gahbauer speaks in Swindon, England. Bloomberg’s Maryam Nemazee also speaks.

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New York City May Get 16 Inches of Snow as Storm Gains Strength, Hangs On

February 26, 2010

By Brian K. Sullivan Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) — A winter storm warning for New York City is in effect until 6 p.m. today as a system carrying heavy, wet flakes and gusty winds threatens to smother the region with as much as 16 inches, forecasters said. Airlines canceled hundreds of flights as the snow moved in around 8 a.m. yesterday. Temperatures in the mid-30s Fahrenheit (about 1 degree Celsius) kept snow from sticking for much of the day and kept forecasters guessing about the total accumulation for the largest U.S. city. The National Weather Service said in a 3:30 p.m. advisory yesterday that the storm was strengthening and it will probably be tomorrow before it tapers off. AccuWeather Inc. warned of downed trees and power lines and said winds may cause whiteouts in some areas. A man was killed by a falling tree branch in New York’s Central Park, WNBC reported. “If people pigeonhole this and say that, ‘Oh, this is a snow storm on Thursday,’ they are missing the big picture,” said Michael Schlacter , chief meteorologist at Weather 2000 Inc . in New York. “This is definitely not just a Thursday story.” It was the second winter storm of the week for the U.S. Northeast, and came just weeks after snowfall set seasonal records for parts of the mid-Atlantic coast. Speculation that the snows would reduce demand for motor fuel contributed to a drop in gasoline futures. Gasoline for March delivery declined 6.17 cents, or 2.9 percent, to settle yesterday at $2.037 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gasoline Demand ‘Annihilated’ “Demand numbers are going to be annihilated by the bad weather,” said Ray Carbone , president of Paramount Options Inc. in New York, a trader at the Nymex. More than 1,500 flights were halted across the Northeast yesterday, most of them in New York, Boston and Philadelphia. That represented about 3 percent of the 50,000 flights scheduled in the U.S. this time of year, according to FlightStats.com , a Web site that tracks aircraft movements. Continental has canceled 20 flights in its main jet operations from the Newark, New Jersey, New York area, and all 200 of its regional partner airlines from Newark’s Liberty International Airport, said Mary Clark ,a spokeswoman for the carrier. Amtrak canceled eight trains on its Empire Service line in upstate New York yesterday and some service between New York City and Albany-Rensselaer was temporarily reduced while CSX Corp., which owns the line, repairs tracks and systems damaged by trees, said Tracy Connell , a spokeswoman for the passenger railway. Oil Tankers CSX, the third-largest U.S. railroad by revenue, said its customers should expect delays during “the worst of the storm” and that its effects will linger through the weekend. The lines are used by shippers including coal producers. Two crude oil tankers put off unloading in Portland, Maine, at least until today, said Tony Youells, port manager for Inchcape Shipping Services , a shipping agent. Waves as high as 27 feet are forecast in the waters off Maine, said Jim Hayes, a weather service meteorologist in Gray, Maine. “Waves are already washing over roads in southeast Maine,” Hayes said. “We might see waves this height once or twice a year.” Winter storm warnings, meaning heavy snow, ice and freezing rain are imminent, were issued from Maryland to Maine, while blizzard warnings stretched from the mountains of North Carolina into West Virginia. High-wind warnings calling for gusts as high as 60 mph were posted for parts of North Carolina, Virginia, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine and the District of Columbia. About 75,000 customers in New York and New England were already without power as the storm moved through the Northeast, according to utilities. A system brought rain to New York City and almost two feet of snow to western Massachusetts starting Feb. 23, disrupting air traffic in Newark, Boston, Baltimore and New York. The new storm will linger over New York because a high pressure ridge over the Atlantic and eastern Canada is essentially blocking its forward progress, which typically would be to move out over the ocean, Schlacter said. To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net ;

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U.K. House Prices Decline for First Time in 10 Months, Nationwide Reports

February 26, 2010

By Zijing Wu Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) — U.K. house prices fell in February for the first time in 10 months as winter weather and higher taxes on transactions deterred buyers, Nationwide Building Society said. The average cost of a home dropped 1 percent from the previous month to 161,320 pounds ($246,000), the mortgage lender said in an e-mailed statement today. Prices are now 9.2 percent higher than a year earlier and down 13 percent from the peak in October 2007. Bank of England policy maker Kate Barker said this week the U.K. housing market may face further “adjustments” as banks curb mortgage lending. Property prices rebounded in the past year, supported by a shortage of homes, after losing about a fifth of their value from the peak as the economy emerged from the longest recession on record. “The market may have lost momentum in early 2010 as the stamp-duty holiday ended and house hunters were obstructed by the icy weather,” Martin Gahbauer , chief economist at Nationwide, said in the statement. Even without those factors, “it would have been surprising to see house prices maintain the very strong upward momentum seen for most of 2009.” Consumer confidence still rose for a second month in February as Britons’ expectations for economic growth increased, GfK NOP said in a separate report today. Economists say that the economy probably grew 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter, the median of 27 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey shows. That would be an upward revision from the previous estimate of 0.1 percent that showed the recession had ended. The data will be released at 9:30 a.m. in London. Winter Damage The Nationwide data add to evidence of damage to the economy from winter weather. Retail sales dropped in January by twice as much as economists forecast as the longest cold snap since 1981 snarled traffic and kept shoppers at home. The government’s partial holiday on stamp duty, a tax on home purchases, expired this year. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling suspended the levy on home purchases of less than 175,000 pounds in September 2008. “I was rather surprised by the strength of prices in the housing market through last year,” Barker told lawmakers on Feb. 23. “It’s possible some people were delaying decisions to move or to put houses on the market, and in some sense that can’t continue.” Nationwide said there has been an increasing number of borrowers taking variable-rate mortgages rather than fixed-rate loans since the middle of 2009. This may be because they expect the central bank to keep its benchmark interest rate low for a longer period, Gahbauer said. The bank’s interest rate is currently at a record low of 0.5 percent and its next monetary policy decision will be on March 4. To contact the reporter on this story: Zijing Wu in London at zwu17@bloomberg.net

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U.S. Home Prices Fell 1.2% in Fourth Quarter, Smallest Loss in Two Years

February 25, 2010

By Kathleen M. Howley Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) — U.S. home prices fell 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the smallest loss in two years, as a federal tax credit for homebuyers boosted demand. Prices were down 0.1 percent from the third quarter, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said today in a report . The year- over-year drop was the smallest since a 1.1 percent decline in 2007’s fourth quarter, the Washington-based agency said. Government stimulus programs including the homebuyer tax credit and a Federal Reserve program to buy mortgage-backed bonds lifted the real estate market in the closing months of 2009. A sustained recovery in housing faces hurdles that include mounting foreclosures and a weak labor market, said Thomas Lawler , a former economist with Fannie Mae who now is an independent housing consultant in Leesburg, Virginia. “The government programs have helped to stabilize housing, but the market is still unbelievably fragile,” Lawler said in an interview. “Nobody knows what’s going to happen to all those properties in the foreclosure process.” Prices in December slipped 1.5 percent from a year earlier. They rose 0.7 percent in the region that includes California, and 0.3 percent in the area of the country that includes Texas. Prices in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania fell 0.4 percent, while New England states had a 1 percent decline. Credit Extension Sales of existing homes jumped 14 percent in the fourth quarter to an annual rate of 6.03 million from 5.29 million in the previous three months, the National Association of Realtors said in a Feb. 11 report. The inventory of homes on the market dropped to 3.29 million in December, the lowest level in more than three years, according to the Chicago-based trade group. President Barack Obama in early November extended the tax credit beyond its original Nov. 30 deadline. The new version keeps the $8,000 first-time homebuyer benefit and makes a smaller credit available to some move-up buyers. To qualify, buyers must have a signed contract on a property by the end of April and purchase it before July 1. The Fed began buying $1.25 trillion of bonds backed by home loans last year in an effort to drive down fixed mortgage rates. The rate dropped to an all-time low of 4.71 percent during the first week of December, according to McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac. The program ends next month. The U.S. economy grew at a 5.7 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, the fastest in six years. Industrial production rose 0.9 percent in January as factories churned out more consumer goods and equipment, according to Fed data. The increase followed a 0.7 percent gain the prior month. ‘Quite Weak’ The jobless rate fell to 9.7 percent in January after reaching a 26-year high of 10.1 percent in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It probably will average 9.8 percent in 2010, according to the median estimate of 66 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would be the highest yearly rate in government records dating to 1948. “The job market remains quite weak,” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in Congressional testimony yesterday. More than 40 percent of the unemployed have been out of work for more than six months, double the year-earlier share, he said. Today’s report from the FHFA measures values using repeat data on individual properties without providing specific prices. The U.S. median home price was $172,900 in the fourth quarter, according to the National Association of Realtors. To contact the reporter on this story: Kathleen M. Howley in Boston at kmhowley@bloomberg.net .

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Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Increased 22,000 Last Week to 496,000

February 25, 2010

By Timothy R. Homan Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) — The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly increased last week, a sign that the economic recovery will be uneven as the labor market struggles to rebound. Initial jobless applications rose by 22,000 to 496,000 in the week ended Feb. 20, the highest level in three months, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The total number of people receiving unemployment insurance gained and the four- week moving average of weekly claims jumped close to a three- month high. Companies are waiting to see sustained sales before adding to payrolls, even as manufacturers help the country emerge from the worst recession since the 1930s. An unemployment rate that’s forecast to average 9.8 percent this year may restrain the housing market and gains in consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the U.S. economy. “There are signs of recovery, but there are still companies that need to cut costs,” said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse in New York, who forecast claims would rise to 500,000. “Once the money comes in on a sustained basis they can plan better, and part of that planning includes hiring.” Economists forecast weekly claims would fall to 460,000, from a previously estimated 473,000 for the week ended Feb. 13, according to the median of 43 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 425,000 to 500,000. Snowstorms Harsh winter weather in parts of the U.S. in recent weeks has made weekly claims volatile. Initial claims have averaged almost 100,000 fewer per week this year than the average of 573,200 for all of last year. A Labor Department spokesman today said part of the reason for the increase in weekly claims was the processing of a backlog of applications in mid-Atlantic states and New England, where snowstorms hit earlier this month. The four-week moving average of claims, a less volatile measure than the weekly figure, increased to 473,750 last week, the highest level since late-November, from 467,750 the prior week, the report showed. Continuing claims rose 6,000 to 4.62 million in the week ended Feb. 13. The continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended benefits under federal programs. Extended Benefits Today’s report showed the number of people who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting extended payments decreased by about 318,000 to 5.5 million in the week ended Feb. 6. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, held at 3.5 percent in the week ended Feb. 13, today’s report showed. Nine states and territories had an increase in claims for that same week, while 44 had a decrease. In testimony before lawmakers in Washington yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke cited “tentative” signs of stabilization in labor markets, such as lower job losses, a rise in manufacturing employment and stronger demand for temporary help. The unemployment rate in the U.S. dropped to 9.7 percent in January, while payrolls declined by 20,000, Labor Department figures showed Feb. 5. Manufacturers last month added to payrolls for the first time in three years, and that may provide a boost to the rest of the labor market in coming months. Staff Reductions Some companies continue to cut staff. PepsiCo Inc., the world’s largest snack maker, said it will close a Gatorade plant in Pryor, Oklahoma, that employs 109 workers. “Based on economic conditions we determined we could not keep the plant open,” Pat Burke, a regional spokesman for the Purchase, New York-based company, said in an e-mailed statement Feb. 18. Other businesses are recalling laid-off workers. Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest maker of bulldozers and excavators, is bringing back 100 technicians at an Indiana plant to meet increased demand. “Caterpillar may be recalling or hiring employees in business units at various facilities this year based on demand fluctuation,” Bridget Young, a spokeswoman for the Peoria, Illinois-based company, said in a Feb. 18 e-mail. Caterpillar previously laid off about 500 workers at the plant in Lafayette. For Related News and Information: News on the U.S. labor market: TNI US LABOR Stories on the U.S. economy: NI USECO Stories on U.S. consumers: TNI US CONS Labor market indexes LRIN

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New York City May Get Up to 13 Inches of Snow, Making Travel `Hazardous’

February 25, 2010

By Brian K. Sullivan and Alex Morales Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) — New York City may receive more than a foot of snow in a storm that’s forecast to hit in rush hour, disrupting travel, the National Weather Service said. The service issued a winter storm warning that starts at 6 a.m. and runs through 6 p.m. tomorrow, and forecast as much as 13 inches (33 centimeters) of snow. “Snow is expected to develop around the start of rush hour Thursday morning then continue through Friday,” the National Weather Service said in a statement on its Web site. “This will make travel very hazardous or impossible.” Continental Airlines Inc. and Delta Air Lines Inc. canceled some of their flights into the area, while Amtrak canceled some trains. It was raining at about 5 a.m. in New York City. “Expect the steadiest and heaviest snow to fall from mid- morning Thursday through Thursday evening,” the weather service said. “Snow may mix with rain for brief periods of time on Thursday. If no mixing-in occurs, amounts will be up towards the higher end of the range, if not more.” Winter storm warnings, meaning heavy snow, ice and freezing rain are imminent, were issued for a swath of the Northeast, including parts of Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. In Washington, snow was forecast before 10 a.m., and winds may gust as high as 37 miles (60 kilometers) an hour, the weather service said. The Washington-Baltimore corridor may receive as much as five inches of snow in the storm, according to Brandon Peloquin, a weather service meteorologist in Sterling, Virginia . Flights Canceled The system is the latest from an El Nino-driven weather pattern that has pushed moist air across the southern U.S., where it has mixed with colder air coming down from the Arctic, Matt Rogers , president of Commodity Weather Group in Bethesda, Maryland, said. The result has been record snows from Washington to Philadelphia. El Nino is a warming of the Pacific Ocean that occurs every two to five years and lasts about 12 months. Continental , the fourth-largest U.S. carrier, canceled all flights today from Newark Liberty International Airport by regional partners including Continental Express and Pinnacle Airlines Corp.’s Colgan unit, said Mary Clark , a spokeswoman for the Houston-based carrier. The cancellations involve “several hundred” flights, Clark said. She didn’t have a more specific number. Delta , the world’s largest carrier, canceled 65 flights in the New York area for today, said Susan Elliott , a spokeswoman for the Atlanta-based company. UAL Corp. ’s United Airlines scrapped 70 flights yesterday because of weather and was considering plans for today, Sarah Massier, a spokeswoman, said. The three airlines issued travel waivers allowing passengers to re-schedule their plans for free, according to statements on their Web sites. Canceled Trains Amtrak canceled eight trains on its Empire Service lines in the upstate New York area, said a spokeswoman, Karina Romero . In northern New Jersey , as much as 18 inches of snow may fall, the weather service said. Parts of Maine, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, New Hampshire and Rhode Island were issued with flood watches, with as much as 3 inches of rain forecast. Today’s will be from the second storm to hit the area this week. A system brought rain to New York City and almost two feet of snow to western Massachusetts starting Feb. 23, disrupting air traffic in Newark, Boston, Baltimore and New York. “The Northeast is being impacted by one storm now, and the monster storm is going to impact the region tomorrow into Friday,” Eric Wilhelm of private forecaster AccuWeather.com . said yesterday. “A really complex situation is developing in the Northeast.” Power Failures Likely On the Massachusetts coast, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected, with gusts as intense as 50 mph, according to a weather service high wind watch issued for the area. “There could be real problems with power outages,” Wilhelm said. “That could be the real legacy of this storm.” More than 50,000 customers in the Albany area and western Massachusetts were left without power by the storm that moving north through New England yesterday, according to utilities. High winds may also create wind-chill problems that will boost energy consumption, Rogers said. Temperatures in the region are expected to be in the 30s Fahrenheit, while the wind will make it feel colder. Demand for heating oil may be 8 percent higher than normal through March 3, according to Weather Derivatives , a Belton, Missouri, forecaster. Heating oil for March delivery rose 0.98 cent, or 0.5 percent, yesterday to settle at $2.0421 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange. To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net ; Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.net

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New York City May Get as Much as 13 Inches of Snow Starting Early Thursday

February 24, 2010

By Brian K. Sullivan Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) — The National Weather Service boosted its forecast for tomorrow’s snowstorm in New York City, saying that as much as 13 inches may fall and that travel in the region may be “very hazardous or impossible.” A winter storm warning goes into effect at 6 a.m. tomorrow. It calls for 7 to 13 inches (18 to 33 centimeters), up from earlier predictions of 5 to 10 inches, according to a weather service bulletin . The storm may be accompanied by wind gusts as high as 30 mph before it abates about 36 hours later. “Expect the steadiest and heaviest snow to fall from mid- morning Thursday through Thursday evening,” according to the statement. “Snow may mix with rain for brief periods of time on Thursday. If no mixing-in occurs, amounts will be up towards the higher end of the range, if not more.” The storm is the latest in an El Nino-driven weather pattern that has pushed moist air across the southern U.S., where it has mixed with colder air coming down from the Arctic, said Matt Rogers , president of private forecaster Commodity Weather Group in Bethesda, Maryland. The result has been record-breaking seasonal snows from Washington to Philadelphia. El Nino is a warming of the Pacific Ocean that occurs every two to five years and lasts about 12 months. Flights Canceled Continental Airlines Inc. , the fourth-largest U.S. carrier, canceled all flights tomorrow from Newark Liberty International Airport by regional partners including Continental Express and Pinnacle Airlines Corp.’s Colgan unit, said Mary Clark , a spokeswoman for the Houston-based carrier. The cancellations involve “several hundred” flights, Clark said. She didn’t immediately have a more specific number. Delta Air Lines Inc. , the world’s largest carrier, scrubbed 65 flights in the New York area for tomorrow, said Susan Elliott , a spokeswoman for the Atlanta-based company. UAL Corp. ’s United Airlines scrapped 70 flights today because of weather and is “still evaluating our plan for tomorrow,” said Sarah Massier, a spokeswoman. Amtrak canceled 8 trains for tomorrow on its Empire Service lines in the upstate New York area, said a spokeswoman, Karina Romero . A winter storm warning, meaning heavy snow, ice and freezing rain are imminent, has been issued from Maryland to Maine, according to the weather service. In northern New Jersey , as much as 18 inches of snow may fall, the agency said. ‘Strong Winds’ Possible “Strong winds are also possible,” the weather service statement for New York and New Jersey said. “This will make travel very hazardous or impossible.” In Massachusetts, southern New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Connecticut, where as much as 3 inches of rain may fall, flood watches have been issued. “It is a really complicated system, it is like a three- part deal,” Rogers said. “It is definitely going to be what they call a bomb in meteorology.” Tomorrow’s snow will be from the second storm to hit the area this week. A system brought rain to New York City and almost two feet of snow to western Massachusetts starting yesterday, disrupting air traffic in Newark, Boston, Baltimore and New York. “The Northeast is being impacted by one storm now, and the monster storm is going to impact the region tomorrow into Friday,” Eric Wilhelm of private forecaster AccuWeather.com . said earlier today. “A really complex situation is developing in the Northeast.” Power Failures Likely On the Massachusetts coast, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected with gusts as intense as 50 mph, according to a weather service high wind watch issued for the area. “There could be real problems with power outages,” Wilhelm said. “That could be the real legacy of this storm.” More than 50,000 customers in the Albany area and western Massachusetts are already without power from the storm moving north through New England today, according to utilities. High winds may also create wind-chill problems that will drive energy consumption, Rogers said. Temperatures in the region are expected to be in the 30s Fahrenheit, while the wind will make it feel colder. Demand for heating oil may be 8 percent above normal through March 3, according to Weather Derivatives , a Belton, Missouri, forecaster. Heating oil for March delivery rose 0.98 cent, or 0.5 percent, today to settle at $2.0421 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Snowfall for Washington The Washington-Baltimore corridor has the potential to receive as much as 5 inches of snow in the storm, according to Brandon Peloquin, a weather service meteorologist in Sterling, Virginia . “There is some uncertainty with this storm,” Peloquin said by telephone. “There is some wiggle room. The track is critical.” The storms will add to what’s already been a benchmark winter in the eastern U.S., where seasonal snowfall records were broken in Washington and Baltimore. Most of that snow has melted away, Peloquin said. The heavy snow will taper off the day after tomorrow, although snow flurries and clouds will linger over much of the Northeast through the weekend, Wilhelm said. To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net ;

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China IPOs in U.S. Suffer Longest Slump in Five Years as Buyers Evaporate

February 24, 2010

By Michael Tsang and Nikolaj Gammeltoft Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) — Initial public offerings by Chinese companies in the U.S. are suffering their longest slump since at least 2004 after providing twice the return of American IPOs over the past five years. IPOs by Chinese companies on American exchanges fell 4.8 percent on average last quarter and 6.7 percent in January and February , the most consistent retreat since Bloomberg began tracking the data. Demand is waning after investors paid more than twice the so-called tangible net assets to buy shares of companies from China Nuokang Bio-Pharmaceutical Inc. , whose profits stagnated in 2009, to China Hydroelectric Corp., which has reported four straight years of losses. While the country’s economy is forecast to expand more than three times as much as the U.S. this year, the central bank is moving to rein in lending and growth just as a global slump in IPOs deepens. “If you’re looking to reduce risk it’s probably the first market to exit,” said Madelynn Matlock , the Cincinnati-based manager of the Huntington International Equity Fund at Huntington Asset Advisors, which oversees $15 billion. “Too many public offerings from China coming too quickly to market, combined with less risk appetite and the monetary tightening in China, have spooked investors.” Consumer Confidence The Bloomberg IPO Index of 63 companies on American exchanges has slipped 3.5 percent in 2010 as U.S. consumer confidence slumped to the lowest level since April and investors speculated that Europe’s widening budget deficits will slow the global economic recovery. The MSCI AC World Index of developed and emerging equity markets completed its longest stretch of weekly declines in almost a year this month and is down 3.4 percent in 2010. U.S. companies from Imperial Capital Group Inc. in Los Angeles to Fort Lauderdale, Florida-based Patriot Risk Management Inc. have postponed IPOs this year, while New York- based Blackstone Group LP’s Travelport Ltd. and New Look Group Plc of Weymouth, England, pulled London offerings this month. Moscow-based United Co. Rusal , the world’s largest aluminum producer, has retreated 24 percent since completing the first Hong Kong listing of a Russian company in January. The performance of Chinese IPOs in the U.S. began to deteriorate last quarter. Investors in five of the seven companies that completed deals suffered losses in the first month of trading, while buyers of 16 of the 24 offerings by American companies made money, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Snake Venom China Nuokang , based in Shenyang in China’s northeastern province of Liaoning, raised $45 million selling ADRs, according to a Dec. 9 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO valued the company at a 135 percent premium to its $3.83 in per share tangible book value, a measure of shareholder equity that excludes assets that can’t be sold in liquidation, the SEC filing and Bloomberg data show. The maker of blood coagulants derived from snake venom reported that net income in the first nine months of 2009 was little changed from the previous year at 41.6 million yuan ($6.1 million), the filing showed. The company’s ADRs, which represent eight common shares, fell 16 percent in the first month on the Nasdaq Stock Market. ADRs represent ownership stakes in overseas companies that are issued by U.S. banks and usually trade on American exchanges. ‘Speculative Money’ “There’s more risk in Chinese IPOs,” said Jim Porter , founder of Hinsdale, Illinois-based New Century Capital Management LLC. “You’re buying with less knowledge and less experience with IPOs from that country and a lot of the time people barely get a chance to see what’s in the prospectus. It’s more speculative money.” Losses have accelerated as China’s central bank increased banks’ reserve requirements twice this year to curb inflation and damp asset prices. The mandatory level will rise 50 basis points, or 0.5 percentage point, effective today, the People’s Bank of China said on its Web site on Feb. 12. Policy makers are reining in credit after banks extended 19 percent of this year’s 7.5 trillion yuan lending target in January and property prices climbed the most in 21 months. Record lending and a 4 trillion yuan stimulus package had helped China lead the recovery from the first global recession since World War II. The economy is forecast to expand 9.5 percent this year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, after increasing 8.7 percent in 2009. The U.S. is projected to grow 3 percent. Daqo, JinkoSolar So far this year, only one of the four Chinese companies that have completed IPOs gained, Bloomberg data show. Chongqing, China-based Daqo New Energy Corp. and JinkoSolar Holding Co. of Shangrao in China’s southeastern province of Jiangxi have shelved plans to sell shares in the U.S. China Hydroelectric , the Beijing-based operator of small- scale hydropower plants on the mainland, raised $96 million selling ADRs and warrants at $16 per unit last month. The biggest of the Chinese offerings this year valued the company at a 188 percent premium to its tangible book value. The ADRs have since fallen 36 percent. Chinese offerings on U.S. exchanges from Baidu Inc. to Suntech Power Holdings Co. enriched investors over the past five years. Shares of 67 mainland and Hong Kong companies gained 22 percent on average in the first four weeks of trading during that period, beating the 11 percent advance for U.S. IPOs, Bloomberg data show. Baidu, Suntech ADRs of Beijing-based Baidu , the owner of China’s most popular Internet search engine, almost tripled in the month after its $122 million IPO in 2005. Suntech, the world’s largest maker of polysilicon solar- power modules, advanced 95 percent in its first month of trading after selling shares in December 2005. The company is located in Wuxi in eastern China’s Jiangsu province. “We’ve had a period where there has been a lot of talk about China being more restrictive from a spending and a monetary policy perspective,” said Thomas S. Caldwell , who oversees more than $1 billion as chairman of Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. in Toronto. “The perception right now is that the Chinese venue doesn’t look attractive in the short-term.” To contact the reporters on this story: Michael Tsang in New York at mtsang1@bloomberg.net ; Nikolaj Gammeltoft in New York at ngammeltoft@bloomberg.net .

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`Snow Hurricane’ Threatens New York, New England; Bigger Storm Approaches

February 24, 2010

By Brian K. Sullivan and Alex Morales Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) — A winter storm threatened to dump more than a foot (30 centimeters) of snow across parts of upstate New York and New England, while forecasters warned of an even more powerful system hitting the northeast tomorrow. “You may hear it called a ‘snow hurricane’ because blizzard may not even do it justice,” said Alex Sosnowski , an expert senior meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. “It is like we’re getting a decade’s worth of storms all in one season.” Warnings for the current storm stretch from Maine through New Hampshire, Vermont and New York state as well as Massachusetts and Connecticut, according to the National Weather Service. Rain was falling today in New York, while inland, it was snowing in Albany, where up to 13 inches of snow were forecast through the night and today, the agency said. The next storm will develop off the U.S. East Coast out of a system coming up from the Gulf of Mexico, Sosnowski said. They’ll add to what’s already been a benchmark winter in the eastern U.S., where seasonal snowfall records have already been set for Washington and Baltimore. AccuWeather’s Web site describes the coming storm as “nothing short of a monster” and predicts high winds and heavy rain across Long Island, Connecticut and New York. “Midday models show a region from Cape Cod to northern Maine receiving hurricane-force winds at the storm’s peak, Thursday afternoon and overnight,” private forecaster MDA Federal Inc. said in a statement. The lowest hurricane-force wind is 74 miles per hour (119 kilometers per hour). NYC Snow The storm is forecast to enter New York’s metropolitan area early in the morning on Feb. 25, said Joe Pollina, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Upton, New York. The weather service Web site said up to five inches of snow may fall there tomorrow, with winds gusting as high as 36 miles an hour. In coastal areas, the storm is likely to draw in warm air that will mean rain, while areas from upstate New York to Ottawa may receive 12 inches or more of snow, Sosnowski said. “This thing is a little different animal,” Sosnowski said by telephone. “Instead of passing on by, it looks like it is going to hook back.” To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net ; Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.net

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Garrett Johnson: Junk Economics and the Assault on the Middle Class

February 23, 2010

“Behind every great fortune lies a great crime.” – Balzac Capitalism hasn’t failed. What has failed is the economic system in place today. No amount of government taxes, trade barriers, or regulation caused it to fail. No investigative reporter, or congressional oversight committee, or regulatory watchdog, exposed the massive fraud and corruption in the financial system today. All of the safeguards put in place to protect the public, and the current system from itself, failed. The global financial crisis came to light because what amounts to a falling out amongst thieves. They simply stopped trusting the ability of each other to pay their debts. Once lending stopped, credit creation froze, and the Ponzi scheme that parallels our financial system broke down . This so-called “Great Recession” isn’t cyclical, and the problems are systemic. We didn’t get here by accident. Choices were made by very wealthy and powerful people, and those choices can be reversed. It’s important to understand that we aren’t fighting Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand . We are fighting against the Money Trust. The first thing that one must acknowledge is that we have just witnessed one of the most massive transfers of wealth, from the poor to the rich, in mankind’s history. This enormous theft now threatens the very existence of the middle class in America. David DeGraw does an excellent job of adding it all up . Here are a few highlights: 50 million Americans now live in poverty Half of all American children will need foodstamps at some point in their lives Hunger rates are now at all-time highs 50 million citizens are now without health care 1.4 million filed for bankruptcy last year, 60% of them because of medical bills 13 million are expected to lose their homes before the crisis is over Meanwhile, we incarcerate more people in the world than any other nation, and a new prison opens somewhere in America every week . These are merely the highlights. Make no mistake — this trend was in place even before the financial crisis struck. In 1972 the CPI adjusted wages for the average worker was $738.48 per week. In January 2008 that figure was $598.18. Simply put, the average American worker has been getting poorer for a long time. What’s more, the past decade was the worst in 70 years , and we are looking at a permanent underclass of former workers. The trend isn’t limited to America . In 1970, 434 million people were suffering from malnutrition. That number is now 854 million. In 1820, the gap between the richest and poorest country was 3 to 1. Today it is 80 to 1. On the other side of the coin, the wealthy have never had it better : The richest 1% have seen their after-tax income triple since 1980 as a percentage of the nation’s total income, while the bottom 90% have seen their share drop 20% This trend accelerated since 2002 . The top 1% owns 70% of all financial assets, an all-time high The average CEO makes 500 times the compensation that the average worker does. In 1970 it was only 25 to 1. The top 400 richest have more wealth than 155 million Americans, and that gap is increasing The list goes on and on… “The war against working people should be understood to be a real war…. Specifically in the U.S., which happens to have a highly class-conscious business class…. And they have long seen themselves as fighting a bitter class war, except they don’t want anybody else to know about it.” — Noam Chomsky So what? Why should you care if our nation has less and less equality? It’s not a matter of class envy. Going all the way back to Aristotle , a strong middle class has been the most important part of a stable and just society. According to Seymour Lipset , and many other economists, a strong middle class is necessary for a stable democracy. To put it another way, the decline of the working class in this country is a threat to our Constitutional form of government. What does that mean? If you want a glimpse of the near future of America, look no further than Samson, Alabama . Last March, Michael McLendon, a disgruntled worker from Pilgrim’s Pride, a chicken processing company, went on a killing rampage that left 11 people dead. While a horrible tragedy in itself, the event was marked by something more unusual — federal Army troops from nearby Fort Rucker were brought into Samson and other surrounding areas to patrol the streets. This fact was largely ignored by the major media. The reason why the troops were manning traffic stops in the small Alabama town, in clear violation of the Posse Comitatus Act, was because the local sheriff asked for support from the military. The reason he couldn’t handle the situation? Budget cuts in police enforcement. What has this got to do with Michael McLendon and Pilgrim’s Pride? In 2006, the giant chicken processor teamed up with Wall Street and borrowed hundreds of billions of dollars to acquire a rival company. To pay for the buyout, and the executive bonuses that came with it, it cut the wages of its workers. Soon after it found it couldn’t pay for the debt and declared bankruptcy. This led to massive layoffs and devastation of the tax base of the community. So who put together the deal that bankrupted Pilgrim’s Pride? Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch. The Merrill banker who made the deal was recently hired by JP Morgan Chase. JP Morgan was behind the financial derivatives that has bankrupted Jefferson County, Alabama over a sewer project. Because of the financial disaster regarding the sewer project, sewer charges were raised to more than double the national average. Poor, working residents are being forced to chose between water and heat . Cuts in the sheriff’s office are so severe that plans are being made to call in the National Guard for any breakout in civil order. If this sounds suspiciously like the scenario of a 3rd world nation, it only means that you are paying attention. Junk Economics “For if leisure and security were enjoyed by all alike, the great mass of human beings who are normally stupefied by poverty would become literate and would learn to think for themselves; and when once they had done this, they would sooner or later realize that the privileged minority had no function, and they would sweep it away. In the long run, a hierarchical society was only possible on a basis of poverty and ignorance.” — George Orwell Last November, Andy Haldane, the Head of the Bank of England, said that the state and the banking system was locked in a “doom loop” , and that massive reforms were necessary to break out of it. Since then there has been very little reforms on either side of the Atlantic. The biggest obstacles to reforms are a) the false belief that we have a free market, and b) the false belief that there are no other alternatives. These perceptions have been carefully shaped by the Federal Reserve, and other central banks, over several decades. First of all, the Federal Reserve virtually controls the field of economics today. The Federal Reserve, through its extensive network of consultants, visiting scholars, alumni and staff economists, so thoroughly dominates the field of economics that real criticism of the central bank has become a career liability for members of the profession, an investigation by the Huffington Post has found. … “The Fed has a lock on the economics world,” says Joshua Rosner, a Wall Street analyst who correctly called the meltdown. “There is no room for other views, which I guess is why economists got it so wrong.” “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.” – Upton Sinclair As Barry Ritholtz has pointed out, the field of economics today has become a joke. Indeed, the arrogance of economics is that it is the polar opposite of Science. It begins with a few basic assumptions, many of which are obviously untrue; some are demonstrably false. No, Mankind is not a rational, profit maximizing actor. No, markets are not perfectly, or even nearly, efficient. No, prices do not reflect the sum total of all that is known about a given market, sector or stock. Those of you who pretend otherwise are fools who deserve to have your 401ks cut in half. That is called just desserts. The problem is that your foolishness helped cut nearly everyone else’s 401ks in half. That is called criminal incompetence. Starting from a false premise that fails to understand the most basic behaviors of the Human animal, economics proceeds to build an edifice of cards on a foundation of sand. It’s hard to believe that a field of study could have drifted so far off course into obvious delusions…unless it was done intentionally. The fact that the wealthy elites have gained so much power and wealth from both the booms and busts of this unstable system is all the motive that you would need. “The last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth.” – former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman, Alan Blinder Albert Edwards, the chief strategist at Societe Generale, has flat out accused the Federal Reserve and Bank of England in complicity in robbing the middle classes of America and Britain. While governments preside over economic policies which make the very rich even richer, national consumption needs to be boosted in some way to avoid underconsumption ending in outright deflation. In addition, the middle classes also need to be thrown a sop to disguise the fact they are not benefiting at all from economic growth. This is where central banks have played their pernicious part… Now you might argue central banks had no alternative in the face of under-consumption. Or you might conclude there was a deliberate, unspoken collusion among policymakers to rob the middle classes of their rightful share of income growth by throwing them illusionary spending power based on asset price inflation. We will never know. But it is clear in my mind that ordinary working people would not have tolerated these extreme redistributive policies had not the UK and US central banks played their supporting role. To over-simplify things, the Federal Reserve has only one tool at its disposal: the printing press. The Fed cheapens money to stimulate the economy, but this encourages speculation, which leads to bubbles. The moral is: Cheap money creates bubbles; and bubbles move wealth from workers to rich motherporkers. It’s as simple as that. That’s why the wealth gap is wider now than anytime since the Gilded Age. Lately, the Federal Reserve has become much more open about its collusion with the financial elite. For examples, the Fed’s efforts to cover up its role in the bailout of AIG, and its role involving the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers . The Big Picture “A corporation cannot be ethical; its only responsibility is to turn a profit!” — Milton Friedman One of the things missing from the economic discussion today is the lack of the perspective . Wall Street has financialized the public domain to inaugurate a neo-feudal tollbooth economy while privatizing the government itself, headed by the Treasury and Federal Reserve. Left untouched is the story how industrial capitalism has succumbed to an insatiable and unsustainable finance capitalism, whose newest “final stage” seems to be a zero-sum game of casino capitalism based on derivative swaps and kindred hedge fund gambling innovations. The failure of today’s economists extend beyond the fact that they failed to anticipate the recession (as late as January 2008, most economists were predicting we would avoid a recession ). Their real failure is that they don’t even understand why the recession happened, despite the fact that the man on the street can grasp the idea once he is aware of the facts. It’s that sort of failure that cannot be forgiven. My favorite contemporary economist with a historical perspective is Michael Hudson . His view of economists today is not complimentary . the “intellectual engineering” that has turned the economics discipline into a public relations exercise for the rentier classes criticized by the classical economists: landlords, bankers and monopolists. It was largely to counter criticisms of their unearned income and wealth, after all, that the post-classical reaction aimed to limit the conceptual “toolbox” of economists to become so unrealistic, narrow-minded and self-serving to the status quo. It has ended up as an intellectual ploy to distract attention away from the financial and property dynamics that are polarizing our world between debtors and creditors, property owners and renters, while steering politics from democracy to oligarchy. Economics today is not just a science without a purpose. Economics, as the professions now exists, is to science what Fox News is to the news media. Just like the purpose of Fox News is to mis inform the public, the purpose of economics today is a PR con to justify inefficient and immoral policies that defend the status quo and keep mankind from advancing. Manufacturing and industry, the great drivers of the American middle class for over 100 years, didn’t die by accident. There was a deliberate decision made in the late 1970′s to favor finance over industry. We have arrived at this point because choices were made. One of those choices made by economists was to turn their backs on the moral values of classical economics. This was reflected by political ideology in a certain segment of society. For instance, I noticed Glen Beck had this to say at the CPAC. He then read disapprovingly the Theodore Roosevelt quote that “we grudge no man a fortune in civil life if it is honorably obtained and well used…so long as the gaining represents benefit to the community.” “Is this what the Republican Party stands for?” Beck demanded. He was answered with boos and cries of “no!” It may seem ironic that a group well versed on religion, and supporting laws regulating practices that they consider immoral, would never consider extending their morality to the accumulation of great wealth and power. Their outrage appears limited to immoral acts that don’t actually effect them. Why should honor and benefit to a person’s community be excluded from the discussion of economics and moral behavior in general? Also, isn’t this strange concept of separating honor and morality from economics at least part of the reason why we are in this situation? “We’re moving to an oligopolistic situation.” – Kenneth Guenther, Independent Community Bankers of America, 1999 It should be noted that the field of economics wasn’t always like this. In fact, its original purpose was enhancing the human condition. What have been lost are the Progressive Era’s two great reforms. First, minimizing the economy’s free lunch of unearned income (e.g., monopolistic privilege and privatization of the public domain in contrast to one’s own labor and enterprise) by taxing absentee property rent and asset-price (“capital”) gains, keeping natural monopolies in the public domain, and anti-trust regulation. The aim of progressive economic justice was to prevent exploitation – e.g., charging more than the technologically necessary costs of production and reasonable profits warranted. A second Progressive Era aim was to steer the financial sector so as to fund capital formation…Today’s bank credit has become decoupled from capital formation, taking the form mainly of mortgage credit (80%), and loans secured by corporate stock (for mergers, acquisitions and corporate raids) as well as for speculation. The effect is to spur asset-price inflation on credit, in ways that benefit the few at the expense of the economy at large. The current economic system is sick. It’s been poisoned with self-serving ideology from top to bottom. It’s needs radical and systemic reforms, not tinkering within the current system (like those proposed so far). This will not happen within the current political and economic system because the wealthy elite do not want it to happen. However, the system was constructed by choices that were made. It can be changed in the same way the progressives changed it a century ago, but it requires a mass movement. It requires people to understand that their enemies aren’t working people from other cities, nations, races, religions, or anyone who collects a paycheck. Their enemies are those of the powerful and wealthy elite who rigged the current system. (Because I can’t say it better)

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Brown Kicks Off Campaign With Call to Spurn Conservatives’ Economic Plans

February 20, 2010

By Kitty Donaldson Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) — Prime Minister Gordon Brown , beginning his general-election campaign, called on voters to take a second look at his Labour Party and spurn the opposition Conservatives as a party whose plans would wreck Britain’s economic recovery. Trailing in the opinion polls after 13 years in power and with a record peacetime budget deficit, Brown is seeking to convince voters they will be worse off under David Cameron’s Conservatives if they take power at the election the premier must hold by June. “I know that Labour hasn’t done everything right, and I know — really, I know — that I’m not perfect,” Brown told party supporters in Coventry, central England, today. He urged electors to “take a second look at us and take a long, hard look at them.” Seven polls in the past two weeks have showed the Conservative lead over the Labour Party shrinking after the economy exited recession in the fourth quarter of 2009. That has raised the possibility that Brown may still win the election or deny Cameron an overall parliamentary majority. Brown, who is 59 today, didn’t name the date of the election. Labour Party documents have suggested he will call the vote for May 6, the day of local elections in some parts of the country. By going earlier, he would face voters before economic- growth data for the first quarter of 2010 is published. The U.K. barely exited recession in the final quarter of 2009, with growth of 0.1 percent. ‘Fair for All’ Flanked by Cabinet ministers and under the party’s election slogan, “A future fair for all,” Brown highlighted the differences between the two parties over tackling Britain’s deficit, arguing the Conservatives haven’t budged from the policies they pursued under Margaret Thatcher . “When you peel away the veneer and actually look at what their policies mean, what you see is not the new economics of the future, it’s the same old Conservative economics of the 1980s,” Brown said. “How can they be the party of change, when they haven’t even changed themselves?” The timing and pace of deficit reduction are at the center of the campaign. The premier received a boost yesterday when 67 economists, including Nobel Prize winners Joseph Stiglitz and Robert Solow , backed his argument that it’s too soon to start cutting the deficit. Earlier in the week, the Conservatives seized on a letter signed by 20 economists, four of them former Bank of England policy makers, supporting its position that cuts are needed this year to keep the confidence of the financial markets. Britain’s deficit will top 12 percent of gross domestic product this year, the most in the Group of 20 leading industrial and developed nations. ‘Operation Fightback’ In today’s speech, which Labour strategists dubbed the start of “Operation Fightback,” Brown repeated pledges to “secure the recovery, not put it at risk” and to “protect and not cut front-line services” such as health care. He said he is representative of “Britain’s mainstream majority — from an ordinary family that wants to get on and not simply get by,” a reference to the difference between his background and Cameron’s. Brown’s father was a Church of Scotland minister. Cameron is the son of a stockbroker and was educated at Eton, the same private school that Princes William and Harry attended. In a broadcast on the Conservatives’ Web site, Cameron said Brown does not stand for fairness. The prime minister said “with a straight face that his is the party for the many, not the few,” Cameron said. “I think that is simply untrue.” ‘Simply Untrue’ “We don’t need a fantasy slogan from the Labour Party,” the leader of the opposition Liberal Democrats, Nick Clegg , told Sky News television. It is a “gratuitous insult to claim the Labour Party cares about fairness when it has so spectacularly failed to deliver it over the last decade.” In an interview shown on Channel 4 television this evening, Brown said he has never hit aides, the day before the Observer newspaper is scheduled to publish extracts from a book by Andrew Rawnsley containing allegations about his treatment of officials. “Let me just say absolutely clearly, so that there is no misunderstanding about that, I have never, never hit anybody in my life,” Brown said. “I don’t do these sorts of things.” To contact the reporter on this story: Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net .

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Dollar Heads for Weekly Gain Against Euro After Fed’s Interest-Rate Boost

February 19, 2010

By Ben Levisohn and Anna Rascouet Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) — The dollar rose against most of its major counterparts after the Federal Reserve’s unexpected increase in the discount rate spurred speculation on the timing of the central bank’s withdrawal of monetary stimulus. The greenback gained against 9 of the 16 most-traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The dollar pared its advance against the euro after a report showed the cost of living in the U.S. rose in January less than anticipated. The yen retreated as equities advanced and investors bought riskier assets. “The Fed says this doesn’t change monetary policy but the market believes it’s the start of normalization of Fed policy,” said Jack Spitz , managing director of foreign exchange at National Bank of Canada in Toronto. “Eventually interest rates will go higher and that’s dollar positive.” The dollar rose 0.2 percent to 91.97 yen at 12:50 p.m. in New York, from 91.81, after reaching 92.09 yen, the highest since Jan. 12. The euro increased 0.4 percent to 124.66 yen, from 124.19. The greenback traded at $1.3558 per euro from $1.3527 yesterday, after appreciating to $1.3444, the strongest level since May 18. I The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index fluctuated, gaining 0.5 percent after earlier declining as much as 0.5 percent. ‘Further Normalization’ The consumer-price index increased 0.2 percent, according to Labor Department figures, compared with the median forecast for a 0.3 percent increase in a Bloomberg survey. Excluding energy and food, the index unexpectedly fell 0.1 percent. The U.S. currency earlier touched a nine-month high against the euro after policy makers yesterday boosted the rate charged to banks for direct loans to 0.75 percent from 0.50 percent, the clearest signal yet that they are ready to withdraw the unprecedented measures used to combat the financial crisis. The Fed also said “the typical maximum maturity for primary credit loans will be shortened to overnight” from March 18. “These changes are intended as a further normalization of the Federal Reserve’s lending facilities,” the board said in a statement yesterday. The moves “do not signal any change in the outlook for the economy or for monetary policy,” the Fed said. The dollar’s gains were tempered after Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said the view that borrowing costs will increase this year is “overblown.” Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said the decision doesn’t signal a tightening of policy. ‘Adds Some Credence’ “The CPI report adds some credence to the commentary from Bullard and Lockhart,” said Andrew Busch , a global currency strategist at Bank of Montreal in Chicago. “But when the Fed raises an interest rate, even the discount rate, it’s tightening policy. The U.S. is attempting to exit extreme monetary policy looseness. That should boost the dollar versus the euro.” Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show traders place odds at 71 percent that the Fed will lift the target rate for overnight loans by November to at least 0.5 percent, up from 65 percent a week ago. The euro fell on continued concern fiscal deficits in Europe’s weakest economies will worsen, diminishing the allure of the region’s assets. The European Union risks repeating Japan’s mistakes of the 1990s as it helps Greece tackle the region’s biggest budget deficit, said Jeremy Beckwith , chief investment officer of Kleinwort Benson. ‘Game of Chicken’ “Greece and the European Union is the world’s biggest game of chicken” since the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, Beckwith said in an interview at the wealth manager’s Edinburgh office. “It’s an effective tightening of policy that we were not expecting a few weeks ago. It’s quite worrying.” The yen fell against the Mexican peso and the Brazilian real as the Fed’s rate change spurred demand for riskier assets. “It should signal some more risk appetite,” said Fabian Eliasson , Head of U.S. currency sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in New York. “It’s a determination by the Fed that the economy has improved enough to take funding away from banks. If the U.S. is doing better, then some of the more emerging markets should do better as well.” The yen fell 0.7 percent to 88.25 per Canadian dollar, from 87.68 yesterday. It declined 0.6 percent to 7.176 per Mexican peso, from 7.132. The pound declined on concern the Bank of England will be forced to continue measures to revive Britain’s economy as other central banks withdraw emergency stimulus. Retail sales excluding gasoline fell 1.2 percent in January from December, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists predicted a 0.5 percent drop. “The U.K. press is talking about the situation being worse than Greece,” said Marc Chandler , global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York. The U.K. “could step back into recession during the first quarter. They’ve kept the door open to further quantitative easing. That’s why the pound is falling.”

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Video: Blanchflower Says U.K. Deficit Cuts Would Risk Recession: Video

February 19, 2010

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) — Former Bank of England policy maker David Blanchflower talks with Bloomberg’s Francine Lacqua about the timing and pace of deficit reduction in the U.K. Blanchflower is among 67 economists to support Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s argument that it’s too soon to start cutting the U.K.’s record deficit. Blanchflower also discusses yesterday’s decision by the Federal Reserve Board to raise the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Bank of England, ECB Will Keep Winding Down Stimulus Steps After Fed Move

February 19, 2010

By Emma Ross-Thomas Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its discount rate shows that the global recovery is on track and other central banks can afford to keep withdrawing emergency measures, former policy makers and economists said. “It’s another minor step in a long march towards normalization,” said former Bank of England official Charles Goodhart in a telephone interview. “The Fed has already moved some way to reducing credit easing, as has the ECB, as has the Bank of England.” The Fed yesterday raised the rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter-point to 0.75 percent, the first increase since June 2006. The Fed said it was a “normalization” of lending that wouldn’t affect monetary policy, and the main federal funds rate would remain low for an “extended period.” The move came as policy makers debate how to withdraw measures designed to haul their economies out of the worst global recession since World War II. While the European Central Bank has already ended some of its emergency liquidity tools, the euro-region economy almost ground to a halt in the fourth quarter and its task is complicated by Greece’s fiscal crisis. The Bank of England is concerned the U.K. economy may lapse back into a recession and expects inflation to undershoot its target over the next two years. The Bank of Japan says it’s still tackling the “critical challenge” of deflation, while unemployment in the U.S. and euro region is around 10 percent. The Fed’s decision nevertheless increased speculation that the U.S. recovery will be strong enough to allow it to tighten policy in the fourth quarter. The dollar strengthened 0.8 percent against the euro since yesterday’s announcement, trading at $1.3518 at 1 p.m. in London. Early Signs? “What the Fed did encourages me because it just may be that the Fed has seen the early signs of recovery,” said Meghnad Desai, Professor Emeritus of Economics at the London School of Economics, in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “European data is slightly misleading, I think there’s more recovery around than we see in the published data.” The ECB has already halted lending unlimited funds for 12 months and may stop other measures at its next meeting on March 4. While President Jean-Claude Trichet has signaled that its benchmark rate is “appropriate” for now, a faster global recovery may prompt him to tighten sooner, says Juergen von Hagen , economics professor at the University of Bonn. “The ECB has more reason than the Fed to think about a tightening of its policy in summer,” he said. “Liquidity in the euro region is abundant and the central bank is well-advised to focus on this to avoid inflationary risks. Inflation is not a problem right now, but if you wait for too long you may have to increase rates in a way which will hurt economic growth.” Options Open? Economists don’t expect the ECB to start raising its benchmark rate from a record low of 1 percent until the fourth quarter, according to a Bloomberg News survey last month. The Bank of England is leaving the option open to resume bond-buying if needed after pausing its 200-billion pound (308 billion) program this month. The U.K. economy returned to growth in the fourth quarter of last year, expanding 0.1 percent from the previous three months. Policy maker Kate Barker said in an interview published by the Belfast-based Newsletter today that the economic recovery will be “quite hesitant.” The Fed’s move may also prove a boon to an export-led recovery by bolstering the dollar, at the expense of the euro, some economists said. The single currency has lost 6 percent this year on concerns over swelling budget deficits and the impact of Greece’s debt crisis on the stability of the euro region. “If on top of that we see the market also becoming more confident on the U.S. recovery and the Fed moving towards hiking the Fed funds rate eventually, that could push the euro significantly lower,” said Marco Annunziata , chief economist at UniCredit Group in London. To contact the reporter on this story: Emma Ross-Thomas in Madrid at erossthomas@bloomberg.net

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Fed Discount-Rate Increase Signals Recovery on Track

February 19, 2010

By Emma Ross-Thomas Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its discount rate shows that the global recovery is on track and other central banks can afford to keep withdrawing emergency measures, former policy makers and economists said. “It’s another minor step in a long march towards normalization,” said former Bank of England official Charles Goodhart in a telephone interview. “The Fed has already moved some way to reducing credit easing, as has the ECB, as has the Bank of England.” The Fed yesterday raised the rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter-point to 0.75 percent, the first increase since June 2006. The Fed said it was a “normalization” of lending that wouldn’t affect monetary policy, and the main federal funds rate would remain low for an “extended period.” The move came as policy makers debate how to withdraw measures designed to haul their economies out of the worst global recession since World War II. While the European Central Bank has already ended some of its emergency liquidity tools, the euro-region economy almost ground to a halt in the fourth quarter and its task is complicated by Greece’s fiscal crisis. The Bank of England is concerned the U.K. economy may lapse back into a recession and expects inflation to undershoot its target over the next two years. The Bank of Japan says it’s still tackling the “critical challenge” of deflation, while unemployment in the U.S. and euro region is around 10 percent. The Fed’s decision nevertheless increased speculation that the U.S. recovery will be strong enough to allow it to tighten policy in the fourth quarter. The dollar strengthened 0.8 percent against the euro since yesterday’s announcement, trading at $1.3518 at 1 p.m. in London. Early Signs? “What the Fed did encourages me because it just may be that the Fed has seen the early signs of recovery,” said Meghnad Desai, Professor Emeritus of Economics at the London School of Economics, in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “European data is slightly misleading, I think there’s more recovery around than we see in the published data.” The ECB has already halted lending unlimited funds for 12 months and may stop other measures at its next meeting on March 4. While President Jean-Claude Trichet has signaled that its benchmark rate is “appropriate” for now, a faster global recovery may prompt him to tighten sooner, says Juergen von Hagen , economics professor at the University of Bonn. “The ECB has more reason than the Fed to think about a tightening of its policy in summer,” he said. “Liquidity in the euro region is abundant and the central bank is well-advised to focus on this to avoid inflationary risks. Inflation is not a problem right now, but if you wait for too long you may have to increase rates in a way which will hurt economic growth.” Options Open? Economists don’t expect the ECB to start raising its benchmark rate from a record low of 1 percent until the fourth quarter, according to a Bloomberg News survey last month. The Bank of England is leaving the option open to resume bond-buying if needed after pausing its 200-billion pound (308 billion) program this month. The U.K. economy returned to growth in the fourth quarter of last year, expanding 0.1 percent from the previous three months. Policy maker Kate Barker said in an interview published by the Belfast-based Newsletter today that the economic recovery will be “quite hesitant.” The Fed’s move may also prove a boon to an export-led recovery by bolstering the dollar, at the expense of the euro, some economists said. The single currency has lost 6 percent this year on concerns over swelling budget deficits and the impact of Greece’s debt crisis on the stability of the euro region. “If on top of that we see the market also becoming more confident on the U.S. recovery and the Fed moving towards hiking the Fed funds rate eventually, that could push the euro significantly lower,” said Marco Annunziata , chief economist at UniCredit Group in London. To contact the reporter on this story: Emma Ross-Thomas in Madrid at erossthomas@bloomberg.net

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Fortress Said to Need $150 Million to Keep Olympic Resort From Lenders

February 19, 2010

By Cristina Alesci Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) — Fortress Investment Group LLC may have to contribute at least $150 million to Intrawest ULC, the owner of the Olympics’ Alpine skiing venue it bought in 2006, to avert bankruptcy or foreclosure, according to a person with knowledge of the negotiations. Intrawest’s creditors yesterday postponed an auction of the company’s assets by one week to Feb. 26. The deal, which avoids a sale of the owner of the Whistler Blackcomb skiing center in the middle of the Winter Games, doesn’t address creditors’ demands that Fortress add equity to Intrawest, said the person, who declined to be identified because talks were private. Lenders including Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. are seeking control of Intrawest after the company missed a final payment in December on a $1.4 billion loan. Intrawest has struggled under a debt load even after layoffs and other expense cuts. The lenders’ administrative agent, Wilmington Trust FSB, had initially slated an auction for today that also would have included stakes in Mont Tremblant in Quebec and Stratton Mountain in Vermont. “They negotiated a reprieve but it’s still a black eye,” said Steven Kaplan , a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business who studies buyouts. “Investors are being asked to throw more good money after bad, which they can’t be happy about.” Lilly Donohue , a spokeswoman for New York-based Fortress, declined to comment. Kimberly Macleod , a spokeswoman for Lehman, also declined to comment. Investors in Fortress’s Fund IV, Fund IV Co and FICO funds saw their collective $1.7 billion equity stake in Vancouver- based Intrawest reduced to 4 cents on the dollar as of Oct. 31. Two of the funds put in an additional $345 million in October 2008 to keep lenders at bay and infuse cash into the company. Repairing Relationships “Although the investment has already been written off, they’ll likely have to repair relationships with some investors that have particular exposure to Intrawest in their funds in order to raise more money from them,” Roger Freeman , a Barclays Capital analyst, said in an interview. Vail Resorts Inc. in Colorado is among a group of bidders for Whistler whose offers have been rebuffed, the Globe and Mail reported yesterday, citing unidentified people. Kate Coble, a spokeswoman for Vail, declined to comment when contacted by Bloomberg News. Booth Creek Ski Holdings Inc., which operates resorts in Northern California and New England, isn’t interested in buying Whistler, said Julie Maurer, vice president of marketing and sales. No Interruption Intrawest, founded in 1976, runs ski and golf resorts in Canada and the U.S. It sells vacation timeshares through its Club Intrawest unit and owns Canadian Mountain Holidays, the world’s largest heli-skiing operation, according to its Web site. Heli-skiing runs are reached via helicopters rather than ski lifts. The potential sale of the resort hasn’t been an issue for the athletes during this week’s competition, said Chris Rudge , chief executive officer of the Canadian Olympic Committee in Vancouver. “For athletes, the Whistler experience has been tremendous,” Rudge said in an interview. “They’ve built a great village up there. No realistic individual would believe that anyone engaged in a business auction would step in and interrupt the Games.” Intrawest has been selling some of its smaller resorts to pay down debt. Those sales, including Panorama Mountain Village and Sandestin Golf and Beach Resort, will raise about $65 million, according to the person. Intrawest agreed in November to sell its interest in Copper Mountain for about $100 million to Powdr Corp. of Park City, Utah. “An auction at this point is unlikely,” said Daniel Fannon , a San Francisco-based analyst at Jefferies & Co. Fortress wants “to maintain a level of control for when times are better again,” he said. To contact the reporter on this story: Cristina Alesci in New York at Calesci2@bloomberg.net .

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U.K. Retail Sales Drop Twice as Much as Forecast as Cold Curtails Spending

February 19, 2010

By Jennifer Ryan Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) — U.K. retail sales dropped more than twice as much as economists forecast in January as the nation’s winter freeze thwarted spending on items from food to furniture. Sales excluding gasoline fell 1.2 percent from December, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists predicted a 0.5 percent drop, according to the median of 26 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The report uses new methodology in line with European rules. The longest cold snap since 1981 snarled traffic and kept workers home last month just as Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling raised value-added tax. With jobless claims at the highest since 1997 and the prospect of a government budget squeeze taking hold after the election, weakness in consumer spending may jeopardize the economic recovery. “The snow has obviously had an effect on shoppers, and many of them may have pulled forward spending into 2009 to avoid the higher VAT,” David Page, an economist at Investec Securities in London, said in a telephone interview before the report. “We expect retail sales to expand as growth picks up, though that may happen slowly. We haven’t seen a significant pickup in taxation and that may happen in the next year.” The pound fell as much as 0.3 percent after the report and traded at $1.5374 as of 9:32 a.m. in London, down 1.4 percent on the day. The yield on the two-year benchmark government bond was up 5 basis points today at 1.178 percent. The January data’s new methodology now includes sales of gasoline and excludes the repair of personal and household goods. The most appropriate comparison with prior figures is the measure that strips out auto fuel, the statistics office said. Electrical Goods The retail drop in January was led by a 2.4 percent decline in sales at food stores, while non-food stores showed no change. Household goods shops reported a 13.4 percent decrease, led by electrical goods, furniture and home repair items, the statistics office said. Including fuels, sales dropped 1.8 percent on the month and rose 0.9 percent from a year earlier. London-based Kingfisher Plc, Europe’s largest home- improvement retailer, said yesterday fourth-quarter sales at stores open at least a year fell 3 percent, hurt by the snowy weather and the rise in VAT. Chief Executive Officer Ian Cheshire said the company’s B&Q stores in Britain ran out of salt used to stabilize snow-covered roads. Snow fell in Britain every day for four weeks, leaving officials to ration road grit and prompting a government investigation into preparations for the cold. At the same time, Darling ended a 2.5 percentage-point cut in value-added tax, withdrawing emergency support for the economy to shore up the public finances. Budget Deficit Britain posted a 4.3 billion-pound ($6.7 billion) budget deficit in January, the first for the month since data began in 1993 as the recession hammered tax receipts. Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s Labour Party and the opposition Conservatives have put the deficit and the economy center stage in their election battle. A YouGov Plc poll for The Sun newspaper that ended Feb. 17 showed the Conservatives with a 9 point lead. Faster price gains may also limit consumer spending. The sales-tax increase pushed the inflation rate to 3.5 percent in January, the highest level in 14 months and enough to require Bank of England Governor Mervyn King to write an open letter of explanation to the Chancellor. The retail sales deflator, a measure of price changes in shops, showed a 0.9 percent annual increase, the statistics office said. To contact the reporter on this story: Jennifer Ryan in London at jryan13@bloomberg.net

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Currency Trading Is Place to Make Your Fortune: Matthew Lynn

February 16, 2010

Commentary by Matthew Lynn Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) — This columnist is usually reluctant to respond to requests for career advice that occasionally find their way into my e-mail box. Yet from time to time, there is a move so obvious for anyone finishing college or university this year, or contemplating their next step up the career ladder, that it is worth pointing out. And right now it is this: Forget hedge funds, walk away from private equity and tell the derivatives boys they can dump their baffling mathematical formulas in the dustbin under the desk. Instead, become a currency trader. They are set to become the new kings of the financial markets. The sovereign-debt crisis, the demise of the dollar and the creation of new reserve currencies all mean that the great financial reputations and fortunes will be made in foreign exchange in the coming few years. In any decade, one sector of the financial markets is usually dominant. There is one corner of the financial universe where so much new stuff is happening, and it is of such importance to the rest of the world, that it is far easier for a young, ambitious person to make their mark than anywhere else. In the 1980s, it was mergers-and-acquisitions deals. In the 1990s, it was the venture capitalist who backed technology companies, and the bankers who arranged initial public offerings for dot-com companies on the stock market. New Masters In the 2000s, it was hedge funds, along with the derivatives traders that supplied them with products. But in the 2010s, it will be currency trading. There are already plenty of signs that the foreign-exchange markets are hotter than a sunny day on Venus. Deutsche Bank AG reported last month that its currency- trading platform for retail investors had a 40 percent increase in customer numbers in 2009. Ordinary investors clearly see exchange trading as an area of the market they want to be in. In London, which is the global currency-trading hub, strong growth is also evident. According to a Bank of England study, daily trading volumes rose 13 percent to $1.43 trillion in October compared with April last year. In the U.S., foreign- exchange trading volumes rose 28 percent to $675 billion a day in the six months ended in October, according to a Federal Reserve-affiliated study. Those are impressive numbers. The volume of London trading isn’t quite back to pre-credit crunch levels, but it is getting close. Debt Crisis There are several good reasons for expecting currency trading to be the focus for financial markets this decade. First, the sovereign-debt crisis. Governments took on huge debt to combat the financial meltdown. That didn’t really fix the problem. It just shifted it from one place to another. Now there are doubts about whether nations can service their obligations. The only way the markets can discipline governments, or pass a verdict on their performance, is via the currency markets. However the crisis eventually works out, it is the foreign-exchange markets that will be in the driver’s seat. Second, the dollar is in long-term decline. Regardless of how well the U.S. recovers, the rise of new economies such as China, Brazil and India means America won’t be the dominant force in the world that it once was. The result? The dollar’s special status is coming to an end. That may be a good thing after some intense volatility as the world adjusts. Again, it is currency traders who will be in control of that transition. Store of Value Third, the advent of new reserve currencies. With the dollar on the way down, the world will need something as a reliable store of value. There are plenty of candidates: It might be gold, an International Monetary Fund-sponsored basket of currencies, or a new world currency. Who knows, it could be something nobody has thought of yet. Ultimately it will be foreign-exchange traders who decide what works and what doesn’t. You can add into the mix some low-probability, yet high- impact, events. Perhaps Germany will get fed up bailing out Greece and Portugal and leave the euro. Maybe the Chinese will decide to make the yuan the world’s dominant currency. Neither scenario is especially likely, but they would create shockwaves through the markets for years. There are usually two conditions for one sector of the financial markets to be dominant: There must be lots of innovation, and lots of volatility. Right now, currency trading ticks both boxes. That’s why if you work in the markets, figuring out clever ways of swapping euros into yen, and dollars into pounds would be the best thing you could do. It will be the fastest way to make your fortune. ( Matthew Lynn is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.) Click on “Send Comment” in the sidebar display to send a letter to the editor. To contact the writer of this column: Matthew Lynn in London at matthewlynn@bloomberg.net

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King May Write U.K. Inflation Letter as Rate Poised to Reach 14-Month High

February 16, 2010

By Scott Hamilton Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) — U.K. inflation accelerated in January to the fastest pace in 14 months as an increase in sales tax pushed the rate high enough to prompt a public letter of explanation from Bank of England Governor Mervyn King . Consumer prices rose 3.5 percent from a year earlier, the most since November 2008, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. A reading deviating more than a percentage point from the bank’s 2 percent target requires King to write to Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling setting out his plans to return to the goal. The letter will be published at 10:30 a.m. in London, the central bank said. King predicted last week that this bout of inflation will ebb as slack caused by the recession curbs consumer-price pressures. The Bank of England, which paused its 200 billion- pound ($314 billion) emergency bond-purchase plan this month, is bracing for volatile data in the aftermath of the slump at a time when the looming election also clouds the economic outlook. “It’s a big overshoot, but the issue is less where about where it peaks, but how quickly it comes back,” Ross Walker , an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London, said in a telephone interview before the announcement. “Inflation is going to fall back, I just don’t think it’s going to fall back anything like as quickly as the Bank of England projects.” The pound pared gains against the dollar after the report and was trading at $1.5699 as of 9:39 a.m. in London. Government bonds stayed higher, with the 10-year gilt yield at 4.05 percent. VAT Rate Reversal Inflation accelerated as prices of alcohol, tobacco, recreation, and bills at restaurants and hotels were pushed higher by Darling’s reversal of a 2.5 percentage-point cut in sales tax last month. Transport costs also increased, climbing 11 percent on the year, the most on record. Inflation has also accelerated as retail discounts in the depths of the recession a year earlier weren’t repeated and because of the pound’s decline of about a quarter on a trade- weighted basis in the past three years. The inflation rate matched the 3.5 percent median forecast of 30 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. On the month, prices fell 0.2 percent, the smallest drop for January since records began in 1997. Core inflation, which excludes costs of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, accelerated to 3.1 percent in January, the fastest pace on record, the statistics office said. Economists had forecast 3.2 percent, according to the median of 11 predictions in a Bloomberg News survey. Short-Term Moves King said last week that the central bank can’t control short-term price moves as the pound’s weakness, higher commodity costs and the expiry of the sales-tax cut stoke consumer prices. Inflation will slow as low as 0.9 percent later this year and stay below the target as slack in the economy suppresses price pressures, the Bank of England said on Feb. 10. Today’s letter from King is the sixth since the bank was granted independence in setting interest rates in 1997. The governor said last week that it’s “far too soon” to say policy makers have finished buying bonds to aid the economy. “If inflation doesn’t start to fall back as rapidly as they project — and by the middle of this year we will have an early sense of that — that could be the point where their credibility starts to get tested a bit more,” RBS’s Walker said. The retail price index, a cost of living measure used in wage negotiations, showed a 3.7 percent annual increased, compared with 2.4 percent the previous month. Excluding mortgage interest payments, it rose 4.6 percent, t7he most since October 2008, the statistics office said. To contact the reporter on this story: Scott Hamilton in London at shamilton8@bloomberg.net .

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U.K. Mortgage Issuers Face $500 Billion Bond-Refinancing Gap, Moody’s Says

February 15, 2010

By Esteban Duarte Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) — British banks will struggle to refinance 319 billion pounds ($500 billion) of bonds backed by home loans as the government prepares to withdraw two aid programs, Moody’s Investors Service said. “It is highly uncertain that the mortgage-backed securities market will have the capacity to absorb the level of refinancing needed in the required timeframe,” according to the report. The government programs allow banks to take mortgage-backed securities off their balance sheets by swapping the debt for Treasury notes from the government. The Bank of England said Feb. 10 it won’t extend the so-called Special Liquidity Scheme past 2012. Another program, the U.K. Treasury’s Credit Guarantee Scheme, is due to close in 2014. “If other debt markets such as covered bonds cannot take up some of the funding gap left by the government schemes, the impact on the U.K mortgage market will be significant,” Moody’s analysts Jonathan Livingstone and Olga Gekht wrote. Banks have raised about 10 billion pounds of mortgage- backed securities publicly since mid-2009 without state aid, Moody’s said. “The funding gap may once again put financial pressure on mortgage originators, in particular smaller lenders, ” according to the report. To contact the reporter on this story: Esteban Duarte in Madrid at eduarterubia@bloomberg.net

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New York City May Get 3 Inches of Snow an Hour as Blizzard Warnings Issued

February 10, 2010

By Brian K. Sullivan Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) — Blizzard warnings for as much as 20 inches of snow were posted from Washington to Long Island as a storm settled in for a daylong siege, closing government offices, grounding thousands of flights and threatening an inch an hour for New York. The storm is also stirring up tropical storm-strength winds from North Carolina to Massachusetts, where gusts of nearly 60 mph (96 kph) are expected, according to the National Weather Service . The gusts may knock down trees and power lines, causing widespread power disruptions, the agency said. “With the storm intensifying rapidly this morning, the worst-case scenario in terms of a truly paralyzing blow to the Washington-Philadelphia-New York urban corridor will be realized,” said Jim Rouiller , a senior energy meteorologist at Planalytics Inc. “Many cities within this corridor are now very near or have exceeded their all-time snowfall for a winter season. It may take days for the infrastructure associated within this corridor to fully recover.” The storm is the second in less than a week for Washington, which received as much as 20 inches over the weekend and had been struggling to dig out. Federal offices closed early on Friday and have not been open since. Gaining Strength The new system is intensifying along the U.S. East Coast, and Joe Bastardi , AccuWeather Inc. chief meteorologist, believes “the resemblance of an eye” may form later today, said Tom Kines , a senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather. Eyes and low barometric pressure are usually associated with hurricanes. “Because it is still intensifying, by this afternoon this will be a very, very powerful storm,” Kines said by telephone from State College, Pennsylvania. “If you have a barometer at home, from Jersey on up to southern New England it is going to be reading very low today.” Snow was falling on Long Island at a rate of 2 inches per hour, Glenn Field, a weather service warning coordinator meteorologist in Taunton, Massachusetts, said at mid-morning. The weather service office in Upton, New York, received 5 inches in just two hours, he said. Hurricane-strength winds and seas of as high as 30 feet (9 meters) are expected to develop off the U.S. East Coast, according to weather service bulletins. Power Disruptions New York-based Consolidated Edison Inc. is adding extra crews to help avert snow- and ice-related blackouts, according to a company statement. Washington’s electric supplier, Pepco, a subsidiary of Pepco Holdings Inc., pulled its crews off the streets because of unsafe conditions, according to the company’s Web site. Governors in Massachusetts, New Jersey and Delaware have either declared emergencies or closed some or all state offices, according to official statements. New York, Washington and Philadelphia have closed schools and some or all city offices, and Baltimore shut the city streets to all but emergency vehicles. A blizzard warning issued early today for the New York City area is in effect until 6 a.m. tomorrow, the National Weather Service said. Washington’s blizzard warning is in effect until tonight, while Boston may receive 8 inches (20 centimeters) of snow and as much as 12 inches may fall south of the city, said Paul Walker , a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather. Travel Snarled Amtrak , the national passenger railroad, hasn’t run a full schedule since last week’s storm and more trains were canceled yesterday, a spokesman, Cliff Cole , said. More than 4,000 flights were grounded nationwide. Delta Air Lines Inc. , the world’s largest carrier, scrubbed 900 flights today and expects operations in Washington and Philadelphia to be almost entirely halted through mid-day Thursday, said Betsy Talton , a spokeswoman for the Atlanta-based company. AMR Corp. ’s American Airlines planned to shut down its operations at New York’s LaGuardia airport at noon, said Tim Wagner , a company spokesman. The U.S. Senate won’t meet today because of the storm, Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid announced on the floor. The House has canceled votes for the rest of the week. Cattle futures fell in Chicago on speculation that the blizzard will keep consumers from going out to grocery stores and restaurants. Shoppers may stock up on essential food items, while avoiding high-end cuts of meat, like beef rib and loin cuts, said Paul Beere , a market adviser with Prime Agricultural Consultants Inc. in Brookfield, Wisconsin. To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net .

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EU Should Avoid Greek Rescue Precedent, Turn to IMF, Charles Goodhart Says

February 10, 2010

By Sarah McDonald Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) — The European Union would be wise to call on the International Monetary Fund to help Greece rather than setting the precedent of bailing out its weakest members, said former Bank of England policy maker Charles Goodhart . “Although the amount of money required to rescue the Greek fiscal position is relatively minor, the problem is it would be a precedent,” Goodhart, 73, said in an interview today in Sydney, where he is attending a conference arranged by the Reserve Bank of Australia. “I would ask the IMF to come in. From the European point of view, it’s the least bad option.” European officials are considering options to shore up investor confidence in Greece, which is struggling to reduce a budget deficit of close to 13 percent of gross domestic product. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble will brief lawmakers today on steps Germany may take to support the Greek government. The prospect of assistance prompted rallies in stocks, credit- default swaps and the euro yesterday. Countries outside the 16-nation euro region, including the U.K. and Sweden, argue that the IMF is the best source of help if Greece requires it, the Financial Times reported today. An IMF program would help allay investor concerns about Greece’s debt load and stem contagion to other European markets, Roubini Global Economics’ Arnab Das said on Feb. 8. The same day, Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said calling for outside help is “the worst possible signal which we could send.” To contact the reporter on this story: Sarah McDonald in Sydney at smcdonald23@bloomberg.net .

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Washington, Baltimore Face Record Snow as Manhattan Prepares for 4 Inches

February 5, 2010

By Brian K. Sullivan Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — Washington and Baltimore prepared today for what may be a record snowfall from an East Coast storm that prompted blizzard warnings for parts of New Jersey and tornado watches in Florida. As much as 30 inches (76 centimeters) of snow is forecast to fall overnight and into tomorrow in the Baltimore-Washington region, which would shatter records in both cities, according to the National Weather Service in Sterling, Virginia. The forecast drove up the price of natural gas futures, as well as area power prices. “Heavy snow will develop tonight to produce near-blizzard and extremely dangerous winter weather conditions tonight through Saturday morning,” according to a weather service bulletin. In Manhattan, the storm may leave 2 to 4 inches of snow, about half of what was predicted earlier, the agency said at 4:28 p.m. Its winter storm watch was lowered to an advisory. New York is on the northern edge of the storm, so Staten Island, which is under a storm warning, may get more snow than the Bronx, and even a small deviation could change the outlook, the agency said. “New York City is probably one of the toughest to call right now because there is such a sharp edge on the storm, from where there is nothing, to where there is a foot,” Tom Kines , a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania, said earlier today. Washington’s record was set by the 1922 “Knickerbocker Storm” that dropped 28 inches of snow, while Baltimore’s record of 26.8 inches came during the 2003 “Presidents’ Day Storm,” the weather service reported. Travel Disrupted The storm prompted the cancellation of more than 175 airline flights at Washington airports , left more than 17,990 people without power in North and South Carolina and drove up the price of natural gas. Flood warnings were posted from Florida to North Carolina, and blizzard warnings went up in New Jersey, including Atlantic City, as well as Delaware and Maryland’s Chesapeake Bay coast. In Florida, heavy thunderstorms swept across the center of the state, and at least one waterspout was seen near Tampa. Radar picked up a tornado near Bowling Green, about 80 miles southwest of Orlando, the weather service said. Natural gas for March delivery rose 9.9 cents, or 1.8 percent, to settle at $5.515 per million British thermal units at 2:36 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices advanced 7.5 percent this week. Virginia Emergency Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell declared a state of emergency in advance of the storm, while federal government offices in Washington closed early. Philadelphia will declare a snow emergency at 8 p.m., according to the city’s Web Site . The Amtrak national passenger rail system said most service to the south of Washington has been canceled, although the Silver Service between New York and Miami, site of this weekend’s Super Bowl game between the New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts, will operate. Power prices in the regions affected by the storm soared to four-week highs on the Intercontinental Exchange. In the New England Power Pool, electricity traded today for delivery on Feb. 8 surged $13.12, or 21 percent, to $76.73 a megawatt-hour. Power in the PJM Interconnection, a benchmark for the mid-Atlantic region, jumped $17.19, or 35 percent, to $66.65 a megawatt-hour. The storm is playing havoc with Virginia and Washington budgets. Virginia has already spent the $79 million it had budgeted this year for snow removal and will pay for the current storm from a $25 million reserve fund, according a statement by its Transportation Department . When the reserve fund is depleted, the state will start taking money from maintenance programs. Washington had $6.2 million for plowing and “we’re probably over budget at this point,” Karyn Le Blanc, a city spokeswoman, said by telephone. To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net .

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Fecal Odor May Lead to Faster Test Outcome for Diarrhea Bug, Doctors Say

February 5, 2010

By Jason Gale Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — A new device that sniffs out malodorous bacteria in stool samples may yield the first rapid, point-of-care test for a potentially lethal diarrheal disease spreading across North America and Europe. Doctors in England say their OdoReader analyzes gases emitted from feces to diagnose the presence of the bacterium Clostridium difficile in less than an hour. Prototypes will be tested against existing diagnostic methods , according to the Wellcome Trust , the world’s second-biggest medical research charity, which is funding the development of the portable device. Earlier detection could help stem the spread and hasten treatment for a disease that can cause life-threatening bowel inflammation. About half a million Americans were infected with C. difficile in 2008, and hospitalizations doubled to 300,000 in 2005 from 2000, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention . “For a long time it has been known that stools have a distinctive and different odor if there is an infection,” said co-developer Chris Probert , professor of gastroenterology at the University of Bristol, in a statement today. “What OdoReader does is take this ‘knowledge’ a step further by comparing the odor of feces of patients with those from people with specific gastro-intestinal disease to make a rapid diagnosis.” C. difficile invades the colon, causing diarrhea and a potentially more serious complication called colitis. More than 50,000 cases of infection occur annually in England and Wales. Antibiotics used to treat other diseases can lead to C. difficile infection by disrupting normal bowel flora, according to the CDC in Atlanta. Fecal Bug The bug is found in feces and typically transmitted in hospitals and nursing homes by staff who have touched contaminated surfaces. Reported deaths from C. difficile in the U.S. increased to 23.7 per million population in 2004 from 5.7 per million in 1999, according to a 2007 study in the CDC’s journal Emerging Infectious Disease. The 1.3 million pounds ($2 million) of funding from the Wellcome Trust will support the development of OdoReader prototypes, according to the statement. If the prototypes are successful, they will undergo a clinical trial before being available commercially, the charity said. To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Gale in Singapore at j.gale@bloomberg.net .

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Stocks, Metals Plunge as Dollar Gains on Concerns Over Debt, Unemployment

February 4, 2010

By Rita Nazareth and Gavin Serkin Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) — Stocks and bonds fell in Spain, Portugal and eastern Europe on concern governments will struggle to fund their budget deficits as spending cuts in Greece trigger labor strikes. The dollar extended gains and equities slid in New York after U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly increased. Portugal’s PSI-20 Index slumped 4.2 percent, the most in 14 months, at 9:33 a.m. in New York. Spain’s IBEX Index dropped 3.7 percent to the lowest level since July and credit-default swaps on Hungary climbed to a record. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.9 percent. The dollar strengthened against all but one of its 16 most-traded peers. The pound pared declines after the Bank of England announced a pause in its asset-purchase program. The European Union’s pledge yesterday to back Greece’s plan to cut the region’s biggest budget deficit prompted investors to shun securities of countries with the worst shortfalls. Spanish borrowing costs rose at a sale of three-year notes today and Portugal scaled back an auction of Treasury bills yesterday. “The focus is shifting toward Spain and Portugal, where the deficit-reduction plans have been far less ambitious than Greece,” said Kornelius Purps , a fixed-income strategist in Munich at UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations’ stocks fell 1.3 percent as Greece’s ASE Index lost 2.7 percent on concern plans for a strike by the country’s biggest union show Prime Minister George Papandreou may not win enough support in parliament for spending reductions. Piraeus Bank SA, Greece’s fourth-biggest lender, dropped 6 percent, while Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Spain’s second-biggest bank, declined 5.8 percent. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slipped 1.4 percent. ECB On Hold European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said he is “confident” that Greece is moving in the right direction to cut its deficit. He spoke at a press briefing after the ECB left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record 1 percent. U.S. stocks also fell as MasterCard Inc., the world’s second-biggest payments network, posted a fourth-quarter profit that fell short of most analysts’ estimates. A Labor Department report showed productivity of U.S. workers surged in the fourth quarter, while labor costs dropped by 4.4 percent. Initial U.S. jobless applications unexpectedly increased to 480,000 in the week ended Jan. 30, the most in seven weeks, from 472,000 the prior week, Labor Department figures showed. “Look at those initial claims,” said Diane Garnick , a New York-based investment strategist at Invesco Ltd., which manages $400 billion. “We thought we were finally going to have a positive month. It wasn’t in the cards this time. Unemployed people don’t spend money. That means the growth we’ve seen is not sustainable until people get jobs.” Emerging Markets The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 1.6 percent, snapping a three-day rally. Poland’s WIG 20 Index fell 2.5 percent after the European Commission said the government’s budget gap may widen to a 15-year high of 7.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2010, from 6.4 percent last year, without “sizeable” measures. The Budapest Stock Exchange Index lost 2.1 percent after the opposition Fidesz party, the favorite to win general elections in 10 weeks, said the country faces a continuing recession and mounting debt, and has an unrealistic budget deficit target. Hungary Premium The extra yield investors demand to own Hungarian sovereign and quasi-sovereign bonds jumped the most in eight months, rising 29 basis points to a two-month high 2.59 percentage points more than similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI Global indexes. Portugal led declines in government bonds, with the premium investors demand to hold the securities instead of benchmark German bunds widening 10 basis points to 157 basis points, the biggest difference since March. Spain sold 2.5 billion euros ($3.5 billion) of three-year securities today to yield 2.63 percent, compared with 2.14 percent the last time the notes were issued Dec. 3. Credit-default swaps on Portugal’s government debt soared 15 basis points to a record 211, according to CMA DataVision prices. Contracts on Greece jumped 18 basis points to 415.5, Spain increased 12 basis points to 164, Italy was up 7 at 138 and Ireland climbed 6.5 basis points to 169.5. The dollar gained against high-yielding currencies, adding 1.1 percent versus the New Zealand dollar South African rand. The Dollar Index , which tracks the U.S. currency against those of six major trading partners, climbed 0.4 percent. The New Zealand dollar declined after a government report showed the unemployment rate climbed to a 10-year high. The Australian dollar dropped because retail sales unexpectedly fell in December for the first time in five months. Crude oil for March delivery fell 1.6 percent to $75.73 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange after a U.S. Energy Department report yesterday showed a bigger- than-forecast weekly increase in crude inventories. Lead for delivery in three months fell 1.6 percent to $1,988.50 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Gold for immediate delivery retreated 2 percent to $1,088.30 an ounce. To contact the reporters for this story: Gavin Serkin at gserkin@bloomberg.net

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Stocks, Metals Plunge as Dollar Gains on Concerns Over Debt, Unemployment

February 4, 2010

By Rita Nazareth and Gavin Serkin Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) — Stocks and bonds fell in Spain, Portugal and eastern Europe on concern governments will struggle to fund their budget deficits as spending cuts in Greece trigger labor strikes. The dollar extended gains and equities slid in New York after U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly increased. Portugal’s PSI-20 Index slumped 4.2 percent, the most in 14 months, at 9:33 a.m. in New York. Spain’s IBEX Index dropped 3.7 percent to the lowest level since July and credit-default swaps on Hungary climbed to a record. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.9 percent. The dollar strengthened against all but one of its 16 most-traded peers. The pound pared declines after the Bank of England announced a pause in its asset-purchase program. The European Union’s pledge yesterday to back Greece’s plan to cut the region’s biggest budget deficit prompted investors to shun securities of countries with the worst shortfalls. Spanish borrowing costs rose at a sale of three-year notes today and Portugal scaled back an auction of Treasury bills yesterday. “The focus is shifting toward Spain and Portugal, where the deficit-reduction plans have been far less ambitious than Greece,” said Kornelius Purps , a fixed-income strategist in Munich at UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations’ stocks fell 1.3 percent as Greece’s ASE Index lost 2.7 percent on concern plans for a strike by the country’s biggest union show Prime Minister George Papandreou may not win enough support in parliament for spending reductions. Piraeus Bank SA, Greece’s fourth-biggest lender, dropped 6 percent, while Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Spain’s second-biggest bank, declined 5.8 percent. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slipped 1.4 percent. ECB On Hold European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said he is “confident” that Greece is moving in the right direction to cut its deficit. He spoke at a press briefing after the ECB left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record 1 percent. U.S. stocks also fell as MasterCard Inc., the world’s second-biggest payments network, posted a fourth-quarter profit that fell short of most analysts’ estimates. A Labor Department report showed productivity of U.S. workers surged in the fourth quarter, while labor costs dropped by 4.4 percent. Initial U.S. jobless applications unexpectedly increased to 480,000 in the week ended Jan. 30, the most in seven weeks, from 472,000 the prior week, Labor Department figures showed. “Look at those initial claims,” said Diane Garnick , a New York-based investment strategist at Invesco Ltd., which manages $400 billion. “We thought we were finally going to have a positive month. It wasn’t in the cards this time. Unemployed people don’t spend money. That means the growth we’ve seen is not sustainable until people get jobs.” Emerging Markets The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 1.6 percent, snapping a three-day rally. Poland’s WIG 20 Index fell 2.5 percent after the European Commission said the government’s budget gap may widen to a 15-year high of 7.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2010, from 6.4 percent last year, without “sizeable” measures. The Budapest Stock Exchange Index lost 2.1 percent after the opposition Fidesz party, the favorite to win general elections in 10 weeks, said the country faces a continuing recession and mounting debt, and has an unrealistic budget deficit target. Hungary Premium The extra yield investors demand to own Hungarian sovereign and quasi-sovereign bonds jumped the most in eight months, rising 29 basis points to a two-month high 2.59 percentage points more than similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI Global indexes. Portugal led declines in government bonds, with the premium investors demand to hold the securities instead of benchmark German bunds widening 10 basis points to 157 basis points, the biggest difference since March. Spain sold 2.5 billion euros ($3.5 billion) of three-year securities today to yield 2.63 percent, compared with 2.14 percent the last time the notes were issued Dec. 3. Credit-default swaps on Portugal’s government debt soared 15 basis points to a record 211, according to CMA DataVision prices. Contracts on Greece jumped 18 basis points to 415.5, Spain increased 12 basis points to 164, Italy was up 7 at 138 and Ireland climbed 6.5 basis points to 169.5. The dollar gained against high-yielding currencies, adding 1.1 percent versus the New Zealand dollar South African rand. The Dollar Index , which tracks the U.S. currency against those of six major trading partners, climbed 0.4 percent. The New Zealand dollar declined after a government report showed the unemployment rate climbed to a 10-year high. The Australian dollar dropped because retail sales unexpectedly fell in December for the first time in five months. Crude oil for March delivery fell 1.6 percent to $75.73 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange after a U.S. Energy Department report yesterday showed a bigger- than-forecast weekly increase in crude inventories. Lead for delivery in three months fell 1.6 percent to $1,988.50 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Gold for immediate delivery retreated 2 percent to $1,088.30 an ounce. To contact the reporters for this story: Gavin Serkin at gserkin@bloomberg.net

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Trichet Says ECB Confident Greek Deficit Can Be Cut; Keeps Key Rate at 1%

February 4, 2010

By Jana Randow Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) — The European Central Bank left its benchmark interest rate at 1 percent, a record low, and will probably hold off unwinding any more emergency lending measures as Greece’s budget deficit takes center stage. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet holds a press conference at 2:30 p.m. in Frankfurt to explain today’s rate decision, which was predicted by all 55 economists in a Bloomberg News survey . Trichet has indicated he’ll wait for new growth and inflation forecasts in March before deciding when to step up the withdrawal of measures used to battle the financial crisis. “I imagine the Greek situation will be the main topic of discussion today,” said Nick Kounis , chief European economist at Fortis in Amsterdam. “They have to think about the consequences for the rest of the region, so they will continue to take a rather hard line on Greece.” Rising unemployment and concern that Greece’s fiscal problems could spread through the 16-nation euro area complicate the ECB’s efforts to return the economy to health. The Greek government is struggling to convince policy makers and investors that it can cut its deficit from 12.7 percent of gross domestic product last year to below the European Union’s 3 percent limit by 2012. Clear Message “Trichet’s message will be quite clear: Greece has to get its fiscal house in order,” said Ken Wattret , chief euro-area economist at BNP Paribas in London. “But if you consolidate in such a rush, you very likely generate a recession. Radical fiscal tightening doesn’t usually go hand in hand with robust growth.” The euro remained lower against the dollar after the rate decision, at $1.3850 as of 1:54 p.m. in Frankfurt from $1.3893 yesterday. The yield on the 10-year German bund fell 2 basis points to 3.2 percent. The Bank of England earlier kept its key rate at a record low of 0.5 percent and paused its bond-purchase program. Australia’s central bank this week unexpectedly paused in its rate-tightening cycle after last year’s increases drove up the nation’s currency, hurting exports. The Federal Reserve last week restated its intention to keep interest rates near zero for an “extended period,” saying the pace of economic recovery “is likely to be moderate for a time.” Unwinding Measures While the ECB isn’t forecast to raise borrowing costs before the fourth quarter, it has started to unwind its emergency lending programs. The central bank in December tightened the terms of its final tender of 12-month loans, one of its flagship measures during the crisis, and said it will discontinue its six-month loans after March. The ECB is still lending commercial banks as much money as they need at its benchmark rate, rather than having them bid for the cash, in an effort to get credit flowing through the economy. Council members Axel Weber and Yves Mersch have indicated the next step in the ECB’s exit strategy is likely to be a return to an auction procedure in some of its refinancing operations, which may be announced after the March policy meeting. “The ECB is on track for a complete normalization of its lending operations by the third quarter,” said Laurent Bilke , a former ECB economist now at Nomura International Plc in London. “That’s a prerequisite and will pave the way for the first rate hike” in November, he said. Economic Recovery The euro-area economy will grow 0.8 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2011, according to the ECB’s December forecasts. It contracted 4 percent last year, the European Commission estimates. Fiscal belt-tightening across the region may damp the recovery as governments rein in spending to reduce budget shortfalls incurred during the recession. The euro has dropped 8.5 percent since Nov. 25, to $1.3840 today. EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia yesterday backed Greece’s consolidation program while saying its implementation “is not easy.” Skepticism about Greece’s consolidation plans last week drove the premium that investors demand to hold Greek 10-year bonds instead of benchmark German bunds to almost 400 basis points, the highest since before the euro was launched in 1999. Spanish and Portuguese bond yields have also risen amid concern those nations are facing similar challenges. To contact the reporter on this story: Jana Randow in Frankfurt at jrandow@bloomberg.net .

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Portugal, Spain Lead Worldwide Decline in Stocks, Bonds; Dollar Advances

February 4, 2010

By Gavin Serkin Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) — Stocks and bonds fell in Spain, Portugal and eastern Europe on concern governments will struggle to fund their budget deficits as spending cuts in Greece trigger strikes. The dollar rallied. Portugal’s PSI-20 Index slumped 4 percent, the most in 14 months, at 1:46 p.m. in London. Spain’s IBEX Index dropped 3.1 percent to the lowest level since August and credit-default swaps on Hungary climbed to a record. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 1 percent. The dollar strengthened against all but one of its 16 most-traded peers. The pound pared declines after the Bank of England announced a pause in its asset-purchase program. The European Union’s pledge yesterday to back Greece’s plan to cut the region’s biggest budget deficit prompted investors to shun securities of countries with the worst shortfalls. Spanish borrowing costs rose at a sale of three-year notes today and Portugal scaled back an auction of Treasury bills yesterday. “The focus is shifting toward Spain and Portugal, where the deficit-reduction plans have been far less ambitious than Greece,” said Kornelius Purps , a fixed-income strategist in Munich at UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations’ stocks fell 0.7 percent as Greece’s ASE Index lost 2.3 percent on concern plans for a strike by the country’s biggest union show Prime Minister George Papandreou may not win enough support in parliament for spending reductions. Piraeus Bank SA, Greece’s fourth-biggest lender, dropped 4.5 percent, while Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Spain’s second-biggest bank, declined 5.1 percent. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slipped 1.2 percent. ECB On Hold European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said he is “confident” that Greece is moving in the right direction to cut its deficit. He spoke at a press briefing after the ECB left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record 1 percent. U.S. stock futures fell as MasterCard Inc., the world’s second-biggest payments network, posted a fourth-quarter profit that fell short of most analysts’ estimates. A Labor Department report showed productivity of U.S. workers surged in the fourth quarter, while labor costs dropped by 4.4 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 1.4 percent, snapping a three-day rally. Poland’s WIG 20 Index fell 1.8 percent after the European Commission said the government’s budget gap may widen to a 15-year high of 7.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2010, from 6.4 percent last year, without “sizeable” measures. The Budapest Stock Exchange Index lost 1.1 percent after the opposition Fidesz party, the favorite to win general elections in 10 weeks, said the country faces a continuing recession and mounting debt, and has an unrealistic budget deficit target. Hungary Premium The extra yield investors demand to own Hungarian sovereign and quasi-sovereign bonds jumped the most in eight months, rising 29 basis points to a two-month high 2.59 percentage points more than similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI Global indexes. Portugal led declines in government bonds, with the premium investors demand to hold the securities instead of benchmark German bunds widening 10 basis points to 157 basis points, the biggest difference since March. Spain sold 2.5 billion euros ($3.5 billion) of three-year securities today to yield 2.63 percent, compared with 2.14 percent the last time the notes were issued Dec. 3. Credit-default swaps on Portugal’s government debt soared 15 basis points to a record 211, according to CMA DataVision prices. Contracts on Greece jumped 18 basis points to 415.5, Spain increased 12 basis points to 164, Italy was up 7 at 138 and Ireland climbed 6.5 basis points to 169.5. Kiwi Falls The dollar gained against high-yielding currencies, adding 1.1 percent versus the New Zealand dollar and 0.6 percent against the South African rand. The Dollar Index , which tracks the U.S. currency against those of six major trading partners, climbed 0.3 percent. The New Zealand dollar declined after a government report showed the unemployment rate climbed to a 10-year high. The Australian dollar dropped because retail sales unexpectedly fell in December for the first time in five months. Crude oil for March delivery fell 68 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $76.30 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange after a U.S. Energy Department report yesterday showed a bigger-than-forecast weekly increase in crude inventories. Lead for delivery in three months fell 0.8 percent to $2,005.75 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Gold for immediate delivery retreated 0.6 percent to $1,103.02 an ounce. To contact the reporters for this story: Gavin Serkin at gserkin@bloomberg.net

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ECB May Keep Key Rate at Record Low as Greece’s Deficit Takes Center Stage

February 4, 2010

By Jana Randow Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) — The European Central Bank will probably keep interest rates at a record low and refrain from unwinding any more emergency lending measures as concern that Greece may fail to contain its deficit takes center stage. ECB officials meeting in Frankfurt will leave the benchmark interest rate at 1 percent, according to all 55 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. President Jean-Claude Trichet has indicated he’ll wait for new growth and inflation forecasts in March before deciding when to step up the withdrawal of measures used to battle the financial crisis. Rising unemployment and concern that Greece’s fiscal problems could spread through the region complicate the ECB’s efforts to return the euro-area economy to health. The Greek government is struggling to convince policy makers and investors that it can cut the budget deficit from 12.7 percent of gross domestic product last year to below the European Union’s 3 percent limit by 2012. “There is a risk of contagion,” said Juergen Michels , chief euro-area economist at Citigroup Inc. in London. “Other euro-region countries could face similar problems to Greece if additional measures aren’t taken. That’s a concern for the ECB.” The ECB announces its rate decision at 1:45 p.m. and Trichet holds a press conference 45 minutes later. The Bank of England will probably keep its key rate at a record low of 0.5 percent and pause its bond-purchase program, another survey of economists shows. That decision is due at noon in London. Removing Stimulus Australia’s central bank this week unexpectedly paused in its rate-tightening cycle after last year’s increases drove up the nation’s currency, hurting exports. The Federal Reserve last week restated its intention to keep interest rates near zero for an “extended period,” saying the pace of economic recovery “is likely to be moderate for a time.” While the ECB isn’t expected to raise borrowing costs before the fourth quarter, it has started to unwind its emergency lending programs. The central bank in December tightened the terms of its final tender of 12-month loans, one of its flagship measures during the crisis, and said it will discontinue its six-month loans after March. The ECB is still lending commercial banks as much money as they need at its benchmark rate, rather than having them bid for the cash, in an effort to get credit flowing through the economy again. Next Step Council members Axel Weber and Yves Mersch have indicated the next step in the ECB’s exit strategy is likely to be a return to an auction procedure in some of its refinancing operations, which may be announced after the March policy meeting. “The ECB is on track for a complete normalization of its lending operations by the third quarter,” said Laurent Bilke , a former ECB economist now at Nomura International Plc in London. “That’s a prerequisite and will pave the way for the first rate hike” in November, he said. The economy of the 16 nations sharing the euro will grow 0.8 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2011, according to the ECB’s December forecasts. It contracted 4 percent last year, the European Commission estimates. Fiscal belt-tightening across the region may damp the recovery as governments rein in spending to reduce budget shortfalls incurred during the recession. ‘Not Easy’ EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia yesterday backed Greece’s consolidation program while saying its implementation “is not easy.” Skepticism about the plans last week drove the premium that investors demand to hold Greek 10-year bonds instead of benchmark German bunds to almost 400 basis points, the highest since before the euro was launched in 1999. Spanish and Portuguese bond yields have also risen amid concern those nations are facing similar challenges. The euro has dropped 8 percent since Nov. 25, to $1.40 yesterday. “Trichet’s message will be quite clear: Greece has to get its fiscal house in order,” said Ken Wattret , chief euro-area economist at BNP Paribas in London. “But if you consolidate in such a rush, you very likely generate a recession. Radical fiscal tightening doesn’t usually go hand in hand with robust growth.” To contact the reporter on this story: Jana Randow in Frankfurt at jrandow@bloomberg.net .

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Asian Stocks, Commodities Gain as U.S. Home Sales Stoke Recovery Optimism

February 2, 2010

By Will McSheehy and Shani Raja Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) — Asian stocks rose for a second day and commodity prices advanced after a report showed U.S. pending home sales increased, spurring confidence in the recovery of the world’s biggest economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.6 percent to 118.25 as of 11:50 a.m. in Tokyo, taking its advance in the past two days to 1.7 percent. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.1 percent following a 1.3 percent gain in regular trading yesterday. Copper for three-month delivery advanced for a third day, gaining 0.7 percent to $6,860 a metric ton. Aluminum added 0.7 percent to $2,127 a ton. “We’re getting more and more confirmation the cyclical recovery is on track,” said Nader Naeimi , a Sydney-based strategist at AMP Capital Investors, which oversees $90 billion. “The fundamentals continue to be supportive.” U.S. stocks rose after the National Association of Realtors said an index of pending home sales rose 1 percent following a 16 percent drop in November that was the largest since records began in 2001. A nine-quarter earnings slump for S&P 500 companies is projected to have ended in the final three months of 2009, and almost 81 percent of earnings published since Jan. 11 topped the average of Wall Street estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. China’s economic growth won’t fall below 8 percent this year, National Bureau of Statistics Chief Economist Yao Jinyuan said, according to a Shanghai Securities News report today. Housing Stocks Six stocks advanced on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index for every two that declined. South Korea’s Kospi Index advanced 0.6 percent. Japan’s Topix added 0.5 percent. James Hardie Industries NV, the biggest seller of home siding in the U.S., jumped 3.7 percent to A$7.95, while Boral Ltd. , a building materials company that gets 11 percent of its sales in the U.S., advanced 5.6 percent to A$5.60. Both stocks were upgraded to “buy” from “neutral” by UBS AG. “The U.S. housing market is rebounding,” said Hiroichi Nishi , an equities manager at Nikko Cordial Securities Inc. in Tokyo. “The economy is definitely recovering. Exporters and commodity related shares will be the focus today.” Nissan Motor Co., which derives more than a third of revenue from North America, gained 1.7 percent after saying vehicle sales in the U.S. rose 16 percent in January. BHP Billiton Ltd ., the world’s largest mining company, added 2.3 percent to A$41.37, while Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third- largest mining company, added 0.9 percent to A$71.64. Alumina Gains Alumina Ltd. rose 1.2 percent to A$1.655 as Citigroup Inc. recommended investors buy shares of Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum maker. Alumina operates the Alcoa World Alumina & Chemical venture with Alcoa. The dollar traded at 90.35 yen from 90.38 yen and was unchanged at $1.395 per euro. The pound advanced against 13 of its 16 major counterparts on prospects the U.K. will curb easing measures as the nation emerges from its worst recession, rising 0.2 percent to 144.63 yen. “Speculation some Bank of England’s policy makers will show a hawkish view on the outlook for the economy and monetary policy is supporting the pound,” said Toshiya Yamauchi , manager of foreign-exchange margin trading at Ueda Harlow in Tokyo. South Korea’s won rose 0.6 percent to 1,153.15 per dollar on optimism a global economic recovery will boost appetite for emerging-market assets. The extra yield investors demand to own developing-nation dollar debt instead of U.S. Treasuries dropped 8 basis points to 3.01 percentage points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI+ Index. Bond Risk The Markit iTraxx Asia index of credit-default swaps on 50 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan fell 3 basis points to 110.5, Citigroup Inc. prices show. The risk benchmark fell 1.4 basis points yesterday, its first decline in six trading days, according to CMA DataVision prices in New York. Oil pared some of yesterday’s 3.8 percent gain, dropping below $77 a barrel in New York after an industry report showed a larger-than-expected increase in crude stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consumer. Oil declined for the first day in three after the American Petroleum Institute reported crude inventories rose 4.72 million barrels last week. Crude for March delivery dropped as much as 40 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $76.83 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. To contact the reporters for this story: Will McSheehy in Singapore at wmcsheehy@bloomberg.net Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net

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Lloyd Chapman: Obama State of the Union Address Will be More Rhetoric and No Substance for The Middle Class

January 26, 2010

I can already hear the empty pandering to the middle class in President Obama’s State of the Union speech. He will be reading one of the most well written speeches of his presidency since he and his handlers realize their reign in Washington could be on the ropes. President Obama has a documentable track record of broken campaign promises and policies that have virtually ignored the middle class. In my perfect world, every network carrying President Obama’s State of the Union address would be required to run a scrolling banner of my up to the minute commentary on the bottom of the screen. When President Obama starts to roll out his impassioned B.S. about his concern for small businesses and the middle class, I could throw-up some of the actual data on his policies to date. As people watch President Obama on the screen, I want them to see that small businesses in the middle class are responsible for over 97 percent of all net new jobs in America. To date, President Obama and the democratically controlled Congress have allocated approximately 2 percent of the stimulus funds to small businesses. When he starts to talk about small businesses, I would run some of the latest government data that shows every day of his administration, hundreds of millions in federal contracts that by law are earmarked for small business have been diverted to Fortune 500 firms. I would love to run the names across the bottom of the screen as he spoke of some of the firms the Obama Administration is currently giving small business contracts. I wonder how President Obama’s most ardent supporters would feel when they saw billions of dollars in federal small business contracts going to Bechtel, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Northrop Grumman. The largest recipient in the latest government small business data was Textron, a Fortune 500 corporation with 43,000 employees, and $14 billion in annual revenue. That’s a small business right? Textron received nearly $780 million in federal small business contracts in a single year. I wonder what affect it would have on his poll numbers if every American knew the Obama Administration was giving U.S. government small business funds to some of the largest corporations in England, France, Italy and even South Korea. After all the shocking statistics ran, I would run a statement President Obama released almost two years ago in February of 2008, “It is time to end the diversion if federal small business contracts to corporate giants.” ( http://www.barackobama.com/2008/02/26/the_american_small_business_le.php ) I think most people would be much more informed if they skipped President Obama’s State of the Union address and spent that time looking up some of the stories on what he has actually done instead. Google “Lloyd Chapman Barack Obama small business” [Do not search with the words in quotes] and see what you find. There is a staggering abyss between what Obama says and what Obama does. One of the best examples is President Obama’s campaign promise to enact a windfall profits tax on the oil and gas industry. On every campaign stop for two years, President Obama promised to enact a windfall profits tax on oil companies. If you want to find out how much you can trust what Barack Obama says, try and find his excuse for completely dropping the windfall profits tax. So when you watch the State of the Union address or any Obama speech, realize that the man gives $2 billion a week in federal small business funds to some of the largest companies in the world. Realize that his two top campaign contributors, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Chase are making record profits in the middle of the worst economic meltdown in 80 years, while bankruptcies for small businesses are up 44 percent over last year. People need to begin to realize that President Obama should have received an Oscar for best actor instead of the Nobel Peace Prize. Wednesday night he will read his lines with passion and conviction, but Thursday morning his policies will continue to ignore the middle class and the small businesses where most Americans work and that create over 97 percent of all net new jobs. The only change the middle class going to get from President Obama will be the pocket change that’s left in their bank accounts at the end of the month.

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U.K.’s Worst Recession on Record Probably Ended in Fourth Quarter of 2009

January 26, 2010

By Jennifer Ryan Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) — The U.K.’s worst recession on record probably ended in the fourth quarter as economic growth resumed with only months to go before Prime Minister Gordon Brown fights the general election. Gross domestic product probably expanded 0.4 percent from the previous three months, according to the median of 33 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The Office for National Statistics will publish the data at 9:30 a.m. in London today. The slump has eliminated more than 6 percent of the economy, making it the deepest since records began in 1955. Brown, whose ruling Labour Party has trailed in voter opinion polls for two years, is narrowing the gap with the opposition Conservatives as unemployment falls and house prices recover. The return to economic growth may give Bank of England policy makers scope to pause their 200 billion-pound ($323 billion) bond-purchase program next month. “The end of the recession will give Labour something to crow about,” Stewart Robertson , an economist at Aviva Investors in London, which manages about $360 billion in assets, said in a telephone interview. “A year of painful, slow, labored progress is in store, but we’d have been grateful for that a year ago when we thought the world was ending.” Improved prospects for the economy have already bolstered the pound, which rose to a six-week high of $1.6458 last week as investors speculated that the central bank would raise the benchmark interest rate from a record low of 0.5 percent. The pound traded at $1.6252 as of 8:39 a.m. today in London. The yield on the 2-year gilt was little changed at 1.22 percent. Crisis Effects The GDP data is the first for the fourth quarter for a Group of Seven nation and may confirm the U.K. is the last to shake off the slump caused by the financial crisis. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King will testify to lawmakers in Parliament today at 9:45 a.m. in London on regulatory changes needed to prevent another panic. Brown yesterday traded blows with opposition leader David Cameron about the timing of budget-deficit cuts needed as growth resumes. Brown said that withdrawing stimulus too quickly risks prompting a further drop in GDP, while Cameron pledged to start immediately cutting after the election. “Gordon Brown’s promise that Britain would lead the world out of recession lies in tatters,” George Osborne , who speaks for the Conservatives on Treasury issues, said in a statement today. “We were one of the first in and now, today, we are the last out.” Recovery Outlook The Conservative lead over Labour narrowed to 9 points from 17 points a month ago, according to a ComRes Ltd. poll for the Sunday Mirror that ended on Jan. 21. The election must happen by June, and Defense Secretary Bob Ainsworth this week appeared to name the date as May 6 in an interview with Sky News. Data suggest the U.K.’s course out of recession is uneven. Unemployment fell in December at the fastest pace since April 2007, and Invensys Plc , the British maker of controls for Whirlpool Inc. washing machines, on Jan. 22 predicted its performance will improve this year. Retail sales still rose less than economists forecast in December and data for November showed manufacturing production stalled for a second month. “We are probably on a path where there is sustained recovery, but I don’t think this economy is going anywhere in a hurry,” Ross Walker , an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, said in a telephone interview. “There are major headwinds to face.” Bond-Purchase Plan Policy makers will decide at their Feb. 4 meeting whether the economic recovery is strong enough to allow them to halt the bond-purchase plan they began in March. The panel may finish spending their allocation as soon as this week. The outlook for consumer prices will prove crucial to their decision. The inflation rate jumped 1 percentage point to 2.9 percent in December, the biggest move since at least 1997. King said last week the pickup “should be temporary,” adding that policy makers’ task in gauging the amount of stimulus needed is complicated by a dearth of guidance on fiscal plans. “The bank has done so much already, and as we’re moving toward an election it’s a politically sensitive time, so they’ll pause in February,” Karen Ward , an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc who formerly worked at the central bank, said in a telephone interview. “There’s an awful lot that has to work its way through the system.” To contact the reporter on this story: Jennifer Ryan in London at Jryan13@bloomberg.net

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Obama’s `Unilateral’ Bank Plan Shows Lack of Global Coordination on Rules

January 21, 2010

By Gavin Finch, Andrew MacAskill and Caroline Binham Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama’s plan to curb proprietary trading shows banking regulations are being implemented unilaterally, not on the global scale lenders urged, according to lawyers. Obama proposed yesterday to limit the size of banks and prohibit them from investing in hedge funds and private equity funds as a way to reduce risk-taking and prevent a repeat of the credit crisis. Other countries, including the U.K., are pushing firms to cut risk by boosting their capital reserves instead. “There seems to be an element of governments trying to outbid each other in regulation proposals,” said Michael Wainwright, a London-based partner in financial services at law firm Eversheds LLP. “They are all trying to catch the mood of the moment with the electorate.” Governments are stepping up regulation of banks and insurers after pumping in trillions of dollars to bail out firms from American International Group Inc. to Edinburgh-based Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann and Barclays Plc Chairman Marcus Agius said yesterday regulation that wasn’t globally coordinated may threaten both their industry and the economic recovery. “You must eschew the temptation to seek refuge in the alleged safety of national borders,” Ackermann said at a London conference yesterday, before Obama announced details of his plan. “The re-fragmentation of global markets is in nobody’s interests. It will leave us all poor. We need internationally harmonized rules and global and consistent implementation.” Too Big To Fail While lawmakers and policy makers around the world have been grappling with what to do with banks that are deemed too- big-to-fail, measures taken by governments so far have tended to favor surcharges rather than a legal split to make risky trades less economically viable. In the U.S., the Glass-Steagall Act separated retail banking from investment banking until 1999. “This is absolutely unilateral,” said Simon Gleeson , a regulatory lawyer at Clifford Chance LLP in London. “This is Glass-Steagall Mark Two,” he added. “Banks can take just as much risk in commercial lending as they can in proprietary trading as Northern Rock and HBOS show,” he said referring to two lenders bailed out by the U.K. government. Obama’s call “is moving a long way from the existing Basel recommendations on capital charges, which is another way of dealing with this issue,” said David Green, a former Bank of England and U.K. Financial Services Authority official who now advises regulators outside Britain. He was referring to the Switzerland-based Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, which is preparing to raise capital standards for banks. Obama’s Loss Obama’s plan is subject to approval by Congress, where his previous regulatory proposals have hit resistance from some lawmakers and opposition from financial firms. He announced the plan on the day Goldman Sachs Group Inc. , facing criticism from politicians and labor unions for near-record compensation pools, set aside $16.2 billion to pay employees. This week, Republicans won a victory in the race for the U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts, a state represented by the late Senator Edward M. Kennedy for almost half a century. “The events of the last few days politically with Obama’s loss may be a factor,” said Jonathan Herbst , a former FSA attorney now at London-based Norton Rose LLP. “This is a U.S. solution, which effectively has a historical resonance in the U.S.” he said. “European policy makers have been very skeptical about this as a solution to the problem.” ‘Obama is Right’ Others welcomed Obama’s plan. “If banks engage in very high-risk activities, they can endanger the money of their depositors,” Antonio Borges , chairman of the Hedge Fund Standards Board, said in a telephone interview. “In this sense, Obama is right.” In October, U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling ruled out Bank of England Governor Mervyn King’s suggestion to separate investment banks from operations that take deposits from consumers and manage payment systems. Banks conduct proprietary trading for their own benefit, not for that of their clients. Adair Turner, chairman of the U.K.’s FSA, has said he is against splitting banks. Turner is leading a committee at the Financial Stability Board, which sets policy for the Group of 20 nations, on whether banks should be split. The FSB is due to report to the G20 by October. The proposals could affect trading at U.S. firms including New York-based Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co., according to Frederic Dickson , chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon. U.K. Banks U.K. banks with the most to lose under Obama’s plan would be Barclays Plc , RBS and HSBC Holdings Plc , said Simon Maughan , an analyst at MF Global Securities in London. Barclays fell 5.9 percent to 283 pence in London trading yesterday, RBS slid 7 percent to 35.32 pence and HSBC slipped 1.2 percent to 675 pence. The U.K. Treasury will consider proposals, an official said. The British Bankers’ Association, an industry trade group, said it was studying Obama’s plans to see how they align with what has already been discussed in the U.K. and abroad, spokesman Brian Mairs said in an e-mailed statement. Obama’s plan follows a slew of banking regulations proposed since the credit crisis. The U.K. government last month imposed a one-time 50 percent tax on bonuses, to be paid by banks. France’s government also said it will impose a similar levy. Osborne Pledge George Osborne, the Conservative lawmaker that shadows Darling in the U.K. Parliament, said that if elected his party would implement a similar plan to Obama’s in the U.K. A YouGov survey for the Sunday Times this week showed the opposition Conservatives at 40 percent, 9 points ahead of the ruling Labour party, with an election due by June. “The whole process of re-regulating the banks is just starting,” said Florian Esterer , a money manager at Swisscanto Asset Management in Zurich, which oversees about $58 billion. “This is just the early warning shots.” To contact the reporters on this story: Gavin Finch in London at gfinch@bloomberg.net ; Andrew Macaskill in London at amacaskill@bloomberg.net ; Caroline Binham in London cbinham@bloomberg.net

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Half Teaspoon Less Salt Each Day May Save Lives, Billions in Medical Costs

January 20, 2010

By Alexandra Thomas Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) — Consuming just half a teaspoon less salt each day may save as many as 92,000 U.S. deaths and as much as $24 billion in medical costs a year, a study found. A 3-gram daily salt reduction per person would lower annual cases of heart disease and stroke by about one-third, according to an analysis published today in the New England Journal of Medicine . The authors used a computer-simulation model to estimate that the change in consumption would save $10 billion to $24 billion in annual health-care costs from drugs and other treatments for high blood pressure and cardiovascular disease. Reducing salt intake would improve health as much as quitting smoking, losing weight and taking medications for lowering cholesterol, the researchers found. Salt reduction lowers blood pressure, so a cutback of just 1 gram per day would have substantial benefits in about one third of adults with high blood pressure, the study said. “There is a common misperception that only certain people should reduce their salt intake and that for the vast majority of the population salt reduction is unnecessary,” said Lawrence Appel and Cheryl Anderson of Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore in an editorial published today in the journal. “The opposite is true. For adults who reach the age of 50 years, the lifetime risk that hypertension will develop is 90 percent.” Recommendations Half a teaspoon of salt equals about 1,200 milligrams of sodium, or 3 grams of salt, according to the American Heart Association’s Web site . The heart association also announced today it was lowering its recommended amount of daily sodium intake to less than 1,500 milligrams from 2,300 milligrams. Sodium is found in a number of products besides table salt. Those include monosodium glutamate and baking soda. The study was done by researchers from the University of California, San Francisco, at Stanford University, near Palo Alto, California, and at Columbia University in New York using a computer model of coronary heart disease in U.S. residents age 35 and older. The researchers estimated that lowering daily salt intake by 3 grams would have health benefits at least as large as reducing smoking by 50 percent or using statin drugs to treat people with a low or intermediate risk for heart disease. New York City health officials are pushing for a reduction in the amount of salt in packaged and restaurant foods by 25 percent over the next five years, since Americans currently consume about twice the recommended daily amount of salt, city officials said. Mayor Michael Bloomberg recently changed other city health regulations, cutting trans fats in eating places and requiring fast-food restaurant menus to list calories. The United Kingdom, Finland and Ireland already have aggressive public programs to reduce salt intake, according to the editorial that accompanied the study. To contact the reporter on this story: Alexandra Thomas in Washington at athomas48@bloomberg.net .

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