european

ECB keeps benchmark unchanged

by on February 9, 2012

menafn.com…

(MENAFN) The European Central Bank decided to keep its key interest rate unchanged at a record low 1 percent, AP reported. The ECB left interest rates unchanged as it waits to see if the eurozone …

Here is the original post:
ECB keeps benchmark unchanged

Find our Weekly Commercial Real Estate, Private Equity and Fund Newsletters at www.WeeklyBrief.net

{ 0 comments }

Huffington Post…

Mitt Romney, man of considerable wealth, has Goldman Sachs to thank for at least some of his fortune. In his 2010 and preliminary 2011 tax returns, made available for public viewing on Tuesday, Romney’s relationship with the Wall Street firm comes to life — one in which a future Republican presidential candidate benefited from preferential treatment during the iconic investment bank’s initial public offering in 1999. (Read More about the Mitt Romney-Goldman Sachs connection at The Caucus) As noted by The New York Times , Romney experienced a seven-digit windfall in 2010 thanks to his connection with Goldman Sachs, which handled many of the candidate’s assets in return for some $48,582 in management fees . Romney’s bonanza came about as a result of a 2010 sale of 7,000 stock shares from Goldman Sachs’s initial public offering, which happened in 1999. At the time, Goldman’s public launch raised some eyebrows for how carefully the company steered the allocation of its own stock. The fact that Romney was even given the opportunity to have shares in the company when it went public makes him part of a rather exclusive club, as shares went to a handpicked group of customers, employees, and partners . Romney acquired 7,000 shares, which went into a blind trust managed by Goldman itself — eventually netting $1,130,123.87 . That sale wasn’t the only time that Romney realized financial benefits as a result of his connection with Goldman Sachs. The Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks campaign contributions from the employees, owners and political action committees of various organizations, lists Goldman Sachs as the top donor to Romney’s campaign in this election. Romney’s relationship with Goldman Sachs could raise questions about his ability to police the financial sector in the wake of the financial crisis. Still, he’s not alone in getting criticized. The cozy relationship between Wall Street and Washington has come under fire thanks in part to the Occupy movement .

Visit link:
How Mitt Romney Got A Seven-Digit Windfall Courtesy Of Goldman Sachs

Find our Weekly Commercial Real Estate, Private Equity and Fund Newsletters at www.WeeklyBrief.net

{ 0 comments }

Olivier Blanchard: Driving the Global Economy with the Brakes On

January 24, 2012

After the speech by the IMF’s Managing Director in Berlin yesterday , my main messages on the global outlook will not surprise you. Starting with the bad news — the world recovery, which was weak in the first place, is in danger of stalling. The epicenter of the danger is Europe, but the rest of the world is increasingly affected. There is an even greater danger, namely that the European crisis intensifies. In this case, the world could be plunged into another recession. Turning to the good news — with the right set of measures, the worst can definitely be avoided, and the recovery can be put back on track. These measures can be taken, need to be taken, and need to be taken urgently. And now the numbers, starting at the epicenter: The IMF’s forecast for growth in Euro Area for 2012 is ‑0.5 percent — this marks a decrease of 1.6 percentage points relative to our September 2011 projection. In particular, we predict negative growth in Italy (‑2.2 percent) and Spain (‑1.7 percent). We have also revised downwards our forecasts for other advanced countries, although by less. Only for the United States, is our forecast unchanged at 1.8 percent. The growth outlook in emerging and developing countries is also down, at 5.4 percent, a decrease of 0.7 percent relative to our September forecast. The revision is particularly sharp in Central and Eastern Europe, reflecting their links to the Euro area. But it is also substantial in China and India, where internal factors explain most of the decrease. What are the forces behind these numbers? Most advanced economies are operating with two major brakes on. The first is fiscal consolidation . Consolidation is necessary — debt levels are very high — but, in the short run, it is clearly a drag on demand, it is a drag on growth. The second is tight credit . In many countries, particularly in Europe, banks are still weak. They are deleveraging. And, in many cases, deleveraging means tighter credit to households or firms, another drag on growth. With those brakes on, the recovery cannot be very strong, and indeed this is something you see in past financial crises. What is happening in Europe, however, is making things worse. Doubts about fiscal sustainability are leading to high yields on sovereign bonds and, in turn, doubts about bank solvency. To reassure markets, governments have felt they had to consolidate further. To reassure investors, banks have deleveraged and tightened credit. Both actions have further decreased growth, leading to a dangerous downward spiral. This explains our forecasts of negative growth for some of the Euro periphery countries, and low growth in the rest of the Euro area. Looking beyond Europe, spillovers through trade are already visible among Euro trade partners. And bouts of risk aversion and uncertainty are leading to high volatility of capital flows to emerging markets. If not contained, this downward spiral can lead to even worse outcomes, be it disorderly default or Euro exit, with major spillovers, first to the rest of the Euro area, and then to the rest of the world. In this context, the required policies are clear. These are largely a repeat of the main messages from the Managing Director Christine Lagarde’s speech yesterday . First, fiscal consolidation must proceed, but at an appropriate pace. Decreasing debt is a marathon, not a sprint. Going too fast will kill growth, and further derail the recovery. It took more than two decades to successfully decrease debt from its World War II heights. We should expect that it may take as long or longer this time. Of the essence here is a credible medium term plan, something still missing in the United States and Japan. Once such a plan is in place, in most countries, automatic stabilizers should be left to play. In some countries, slower consolidation may even be appropriate. Second, a credit crunch must be avoided. Where banks need to increase their capital ratios, they should do it through an increase in capital, rather than a decrease in credit. Recapitalization through public funds will help credit, sustain activity, and may actually improve the fiscal outlook. Third, and to the extent that they are taking the tough measures they need to take, Euro periphery countries — such as Italy or Spain — must be able to borrow at low interest rates. As many investors have left the market and are unlikely to return soon, public liquidity provision may be needed. It can be provided in various ways, by the European Central Bank, by the European Union, and by the IMF. Whichever combination is used, the available funds must be large enough to maintain low interest rates and fiscal sustainability. Our forecasts are based on the assumption that these measures will be adopted, and the euro crisis will slowly decrease in intensity. If they are not, one can fear the worst. If they are adopted decisively, the world economy may perform better than our forecast. One should be under no illusion however. Even then, the brakes will still be on, and unemployment will decrease only slowly. We have a long way to go before the world economy has fully recovered. From iMFdirect blog

Read the full article →

Raymond J. Learsy: Just In Time-Iran Threatens Closing Strait Of Hormuz To Oil Transit

December 29, 2011

Midst increased pressure from sanctions and now facing a voluntary embargo that would curtail their oil exports to a wide spectrum of their important crude oil customers such as the European Union, Japan, Korea, Iran is coming under massive economic pressure to desist from continuing its not so clandestine program of developing a nuclear arsenal. The economic situation in Iran is becoming increasingly acute evidenced by its plummeting currency vs. the value of the dollar and other currencies (“Iran Threatens To Choke Route Of Oil Shipments” New York Times” 12.28.11). Clearly the sanctions and the prospect of an oil embargo would have a crushing impact on a crumbling economy. Such, that Iran is now threatening retaliation. The Iranian Government, through its Vice President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi, has now steadfastly proclaimed that “If they impose sanction’s on Iran’s oil exports than even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz.” The Iranians have already had fleet maneuvers in and about the Strait of Hormuz, and seemingly the message is clear. Inhibit our oil exports and we will make passage of any oil through the Strait of Hormuz, perhaps the most important oil passageway in the world through which some 20% of the world’s oil traffics, closed to all. If Iran succeeded, the world’s economy would suffer grievously. Immediately in response to Rahimi’s threats, the price of oil jumped near $2/bbl on Tuesday. But the question becomes could they and would they really try or are the Iranians simply attempting to bestir an oil buying panic and raising fear of escalating oil prices and resulting economic disarray in world markets. In doing so they are challenging a long held policy objective subscribed to by many nations including the United States. Maintaining political stability and the free flow of oil to the global economy has been the overarching objective of U.S. foreign policy in the Persian Gulf for almost half a century. The U.S. Navy, together with an allied task force, has been one of the primary instruments of that policy, in both peace and war. To that end the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet alone has flotilla of near two score vessels including two aircraft carriers patrolling the Persian Gulf waters. Leaving no room for doubt, a spokesperson for the U.S. Fifth Fleet made it clear on Wednesday that it would not allow any disruption of traffic in the Strait, by responding to the Iranian provocation, “Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated.” But something very important has come to pass. This Iranian regime has shown its true colors. Whether the Iranian’s can presently close the Straits is not altogether the issue here. This time around the Iranian’s may well back off in the face of superior and more sophisticated firepower. But, and here is the crux of the issue. Would they back off if their nuclear arsenal were in place, and would we be so sanguinely confident that they would desist or be ready to engage them in combat. And under those circumstances, what would our choices be? These current events underline the absolute urgency, given the presumed advanced stage of Iran’s nuclear program, that all be done now that can be done, short of open hostilities, to achieve a modus vivendi resulting in a nuclear weapons free Iran, as the next time, with a nuclear bomb in hand, it may be too late and the Strait of Hormuz might well be blocked with the enormous economic destabilization that would result. Here is a lesson, a set of circumstances that makes it clear we need muster all that can and needs to be done toward achieving energy independence and energy self reliance with utmost urgency

Read the full article →

Citi Selling Off Another Part Of Its Non-Core Business

December 28, 2011

NEW YORK — Citigroup Inc. is selling its Belgian consumer business to French bank Credit Mutuel Nord Europe as the New York bank continues to sell off operations that it deems are outside its core business. The company didn’t disclose the deal’s terms. Citigroup and other banks hurt by 2008′s financial meltdown and the economic downturn have been selling off “non-core” divisions. For example, Citigroup sold a $1.7 billion private equity portfolio to a French bank in June. Citigroup said it has reduced the assets within Citi Holdings by more than $582 billion since the peak in 2008′s first quarter. The company also is trimming its workforce and recently announced it will cut 4,500 jobs – or about 1.5 percent of its global workforce of 267,000 – over the next few quarters. Citigroup was one of the biggest recipients of taxpayer support during the financial crisis. It received $45 billion in bailouts funds and was partly owned by the government until December 2010. The company said Wednesday that Citibank Belgium SA has 700 workers and 500,000 customers. Citigroup said it will continue to serve corporate and institutional clients in Belgium through its Institutional Banking and Global Transaction Services franchises. The deal is expected to close in the second quarter of 2012. Shares of Citigroup fell 74 cents, or 2.7 percent, to $26.17 by early afternoon, edging near the bottom of the range from $21.40 to $51.50 where they have traded over the past year.

Read the full article →

In 2012, Global Economy ‘A Tale Of Two Worlds’

December 24, 2011

LONDON (Reuters) – Europe faces another year of dismal economic performance in 2012 that will weigh on global growth, but emerging markets and the United States should at least keep the world economy moving in the right direction. There are several reasons why next year may be nothing to look forward to, according to Reuters polls from the last few months. Many of the world’s biggest developed economies are heading into recession, global stock markets look set to recoup only a fraction of their heavy losses in 2011, oil prices will head lower, and asset managers are unsure where best to invest. And these could be the best-case scenarios. Most economists base their assumptions on the hope that the euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis will not boil over into a new global economic crisis, having already dented growth in major exporters to Europe. Still, most of the major emerging market economies like Brazil and China should pick up speed later next year. All of them have suffered from slowing economies in recent months, caused mainly by tightening monetary policy in the face of high inflation. “It’s important to stress the world economy is still growing. But it’s a tale of two worlds,” said Gerard Lyons, chief economist at Standard Chartered Bank. “The storyline for 2012 is that Europe drags the world down in the first half of the year, and China drags it up in the second half of the year.” Enormous political risks cloud the outlook further, with elections and leadership changes in the most powerful countries and the prospect of continuing turmoil in the Middle East. Still, there are glimmers of hope. The United States’ economy has performed better than most had hoped over the last quarter, and Reuters’ polls of economists show it growing around 2.2 percent in 2012, compared with zero growth in the euro zone. “The big unknown in Europe and the U.S. is that big companies, with balance sheets in good shape, have the ability to invest at home if they want. It’s more likely that will take place in the U.S. rather than Europe,” said Lyons. THE EURO ZONE QUESTION European Union leaders took a historic step towards greater fiscal integration earlier in December, but economists have been clear that this would not ease a debt crisis entering its third year and still hogging the headlines in 2012. Reuters polls show real concern that leaders are doing far too little to stimulate growth, with the likes of Spain and Italy destined for long and painful recessions. The euro zone as a whole, meanwhile, is probably in a moderate recession right now that will last midway into 2012. “The euro area continues to be a source of economic and financial instability for the rest of the world,” said Juan Perez-Campanero, economist at Santander, in a research note. “We could be facing a more permanent and lasting decline in growth capacity in developed economies and, particularly, the euro area.” Whether Spain and Italy will need to seek funding from the euro zone’s bailout facility next year is open to question, with a very slim majority of economists polled this month – 27 out of 56 – saying not. And a November survey of 20 top economists and former policymakers in academia and respected research institutes showed 14 of them do not expect the euro zone to survive in its current form. Even in Japan, where economists have downgraded growth forecasts relentlessly, the economy is expected to pick up in the fiscal year from April and expand 1.8 percent. Japan should narrowly avoid a recession, but polls show little hope it will emerge from deflation any time soon. ASSESSING THE ASSETS The severe uncertainty surrounding 2012 is perhaps best reflected by Reuters’ asset allocation poll of more than 50 leading investment houses in the United States, Europe and Japan. Investors raised their cash balance to the highest in a year in December as they prepared for a jittery 2012, although they also moved back into cheap equities, Reuters polls showed on Monday. The euro zone crisis was the key concern of asset managers polled, hence the increased preference for cash as well as moves into British and Asian shares rather than European ones. Similarly, the last quarterly stock markets poll suggested emerging markets will easily outperform European share indexes in 2012, which will struggle to bounce back to end-2010 levels, never mind end-2011. With Europe heading into a recession, oil prices look set to fall from here. Brent crude will average $105 a barrel next year, not far below this year’s record high average near $111. “We expect a mild recession across the OECD next year to put a damper on demand and consequently prices,” David Wech from Vienna-based consultants JBC Energy said. “Nevertheless, the risk to oil prices is definitely on the upside given a still troubled geopolitical environment.” Economic growth is likely to slow among the Gulf’s wealthy oil exporters next year, but governments will remain able to spend to counter the impact of any global slump, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday. Respondents cited the euro zone debt crisis and signs of slowing growth in China as reasons for the darkened economic outlook in the Gulf. DELAYED CHINESE CHEERS Whatever the euro zone’s future, the effects of the debt crisis have already been felt across the world. The European Union is China’s biggest export market, and manufacturing data there show dwindling levels of foreign new orders. Indeed, the Chinese economy is now growing at its weakest pace since 2009. In an effort to support it the central bank cut reserve requirements at the end of last month for the first time in three years. Economists polled by Reuters after this move, however, said the People’s Bank of China will refrain from more aggressive stimulative policies unless growth falls sharply to below 8 percent. Similarly, India has been suffering from a pronounced slowdown in growth and Reuters polls suggest its central bank will also slacken monetary policy by mid-2012 to counter this, despite stubbornly high inflation. It could be in for a difficult year. “Looking ahead, the economy faces the lagged effects of monetary tightening,” said Leif Eskesen, economist HSBC in Singapore. “Moreover, administrative hurdles and domestic policy paralysis are holding back investments and hurting sentiment.” Brazil’s central bank on Thursday cut its 2011 growth estimate to 3.0 percent, versus its previous estimate of 3.5 percent, and said 2012 would see growth of 3.5 percent. Compared with previous years where growth averaged near double-digit rates, that would be a disappointment, although still a fair improvement on the anaemic rates of most developed peers. Overall, even the slightly depressed growth rates from these developing economic powers will power world growth next year. “It is positive growth, but the picture does vary considerably – not just in terms of the first and second half of the year, but also depending on which part of the world you look at,” concluded Lyons from Standard Chartered. (Analysis by Sumanta Dey in Bangalore, Additional reporting by Anooja Debnath in Singapore, Zaida Espana and Peter Apps in London; Polling by Reuters Polls Bangalore, Editing by Hugh Lawson) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

Read the full article →

Credit Agency Warns Debt Could Lead To U.S. Downgrade

December 22, 2011

NEW YORK (Daniel Bases) – Fitch Ratings on Wednesday warned again that the United States’ rising debt burden was not consistent with maintaining the country’s top AAA credit rating, but said there would likely be no decision on whether to cut the rating before 2013. Last month, Fitch changed its U.S. credit rating outlook to negative from stable, citing the failure of a special congressional committee to agree on at least $1.2 trillion in deficit-reduction measures. “Federal debt will rise in the absence of expenditure and tax reforms that would address the challenges of rising health and social security spending as the population ages,” Fitch said in a statement. “The high and rising federal and general government debt burden is not consistent with the U.S. retaining its ‘AAA’ status despite its other fundamental sovereign credit strengths,” the ratings agency said. In a new fiscal projection, Fitch said at least $3.5 trillion of additional deficit reduction measures will be required to stabilize the federal debt held by the public at around 90 percent of gross domestic product in the latter half of the current decade. Fitch, when it lowered its outlook to negative, had said it was giving the U.S. government until 2013 to come up with a “credible plan” to tackle its ballooning budget deficit or risk a downgrade from the AAA status. “A key task of an incoming Congress and administration in 2013 is to formulate a credible plan to reduce the budget deficit and stabilize the federal debt burden. Without such a strategy, the sovereign rating will likely be lowered by the end of 2013,” Fitch reiterated. Rival ratings agency Standard & Poor’s cut its credit rating on the United States to AA-plus from AAA on August 5, citing concerns over the government’s budget deficit and rising debt burden as well as the political gridlock that nearly led to a default. On November 23, Moody’s Investors Service, warned that its top level Aaa credit rating for the United States could be in jeopardy if lawmakers were to backtrack on $1.2 trillion in automatic deficit cuts that are set to be made over 10 years. The plan for automatic cuts was triggered after the special congressional committee failed to reach an agreement on deficit reduction. Moody’s said any pullback from the agreed automatic cuts to take effect starting in 2013 could prompt it to take action. (Reporting By Daniel Bases; Editing by Leslie Adler) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

Read the full article →

Immigrants Founded Half Of Top U.S. Startups, Study Finds

December 21, 2011

(Sarah McBride) – Immigrants founded or cofounded almost half of 50 top venture-backed companies in the United States, a new study shows, underscoring some of the high stakes in potential immigration reform. The venture capital community argues the study, completed by research group National Foundation for American Policy, proves the need to overhaul rules governing how entrepreneurs can immigrate to the United States to spur job development. “It’s a gamble whether an entrepreneur should stay or leave right now, and that’s not how the immigration system should work,” said Mark Heesen, president of the National Venture Capital Association, on a call with reporters. “What we need is legislation that helps these entrepreneurs from outside the United States.” Of the 50 top venture-backed companies, 23 had at least one immigrant founder, the study found. In addition, 37 of the 50 companies employed at least one immigrant in a key management position such as chief technology officer. Companies with immigrant founders include some of Silicon Valley’s hot start-ups, such as textbook-rental service Chegg, founded by Indian Aayush Phumbhra and Briton Osman Rashid; online craft marketplace Etsy, founded by Swiss Haim Schoppik; and Web publisher Glam Media, founded by Indians Samir Arora and Raj Narayan. The countries that supplied the most founders included India, Israel, Canada, Iran and New Zealand, the study found, and the immigrant-founded companies created an average of 150 jobs. The study looked at the top 50 venture-backed companies as measured by research firm VentureSource, based on factors such as company growth and the amount of capital raised. VentureSource considered only companies valued at less than $1 billion. Young companies and their backers say the rules are too cumbersome and encourage non-U.S. citizens to launch start-up businesses elsewhere, or bog down companies in red tape if they commit to basing in the United States. One obstacle to the loosening of immigration rules for entrepreneurs is a tendency in Congress to consider legal and illegal immigration jointly, Heesen said. Because illegal-immigration issues are so divisive, he said, overall immigration reform has bogged down. The NFAP identified bills pending in the House of Representatives and the Senate that would help through measures such as lowering the amount of capital an entrepreneur has to raise before being eligible for an immigrant visa. (Source: http://www.nfap.com/pdf/NFAPPolicyBriefImmigrantFoundersandKeyPersonnelinAmericasTopVentureFundedCompanies.pdf ) (Reporting by Sarah McBride; Editing by Steve Orlofsky) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

Read the full article →

Welcome To Amazon Town

December 20, 2011

FERNLEY, Nev.—Behind the piles of smiley-faced Amazon.com Inc. boxes arriving on doorsteps this holiday season are workers like Ray and Sarann Williams.

Read the full article →

The New Blue Collar: Temporary Work, Lasting Poverty And The American Warehouse

December 20, 2011

JOLIET, Ill., and FONTANA, Calif. — Like nearly everyone else in Joliet without good job prospects, Uylonda Dickerson eventually found herself at the warehouses looking for work. “I just needed a job,” the 38-year-old single mother says. Dickerson came to the right place. Over the past decade and a half, Joliet and its Will County environs southwest of Chicago have grown into one of the world’s largest inland ports, a major hub for dry goods destined for retail stores throughout the Midwest and beyond. With all the new distribution centers have come thousands of jobs at “logistics” companies — firms that specialize in moving goods for retailers and manufacturers. Many of these jobs are filled by Joliet’s African Americans, like Dickerson, and immigrants from Mexico and elsewhere in Latin America. But many bottom-rung workers like Dickerson don’t work for the big corporations whose products are in the warehouses, or even the logistics companies that run them. They go to work for labor agencies that supply workers like Dickerson. Last year, she found work as a temp through one of the myriad staffing agencies that serve big-box retailers and their contractors. Thanks largely to the warehousing boom, Will County has developed one of the highest concentrations of temp agencies in the Midwest. Dickerson, grateful to have even a temp job, was taken on as a “lumper” — someone who schleps boxes to and from trailers all day long. As unglamorous as her duties were, Dickerson became an essential cog in one of the most sophisticated machines in modern commerce — the Walmart supply chain. Walmart , the world’s largest private-sector employer, had contracted a company called Schneider Logistics to operate the warehouse. And Schneider, in turn, had its own contracts with staffing companies that supplied workers. The experience would change the way Dickerson saw the retail industry — particularly during the frenetic run-up to the holidays, when workers are under tremendous pressure to get products out the door and into stores. “I don’t think people know what the people in those warehouses have to go through to get them their stuff in those stores,” Dickerson says. “If you don’t work in a warehouse, you don’t know.” Dickerson quickly discovered that the work wasn’t easy, if there was any work at all. Each morning she showed up at her warehouse, she wasn’t sure whether she’d be assigned a trailer and earn a day’s pay. She says there were days that she and many temps were told simply to go home, without pay, since there wasn’t as much product to unload as expected. Sometimes Dickerson was told they didn’t have any trailers light enough for a woman, she says. But on most days the warehouse teemed with lumpers, many of them wearing different colored t-shirts to signify the different agencies they worked for. Dickerson herself would work for two different labor providers within the same warehouse in a little more than a year. The difficulty of a lumper’s day often went according to chance. A lucky lumper might be assigned a container filled with boxes of Kleenex or stuffed animals, while an unlucky lumper might pull a container filled with kiddie swimming pools or 200-pound trampolines. For the heaviest lifts, Dickerson would be assigned a partner, and the two would split the pay for the trailer, moving the massive boxes onto pallets by hand. The job was fast-paced and stressful. Dickerson says supervisors would walk along the warehouse’s bay doors, marking the workers’ progress over time. The supervisors, Dickerson and other workers say, often told them to speed it up if they wanted to be invited back. Many of the workers were temps with no job security and no recourse. And the local unemployment rate, then around 11 percent, promised a long line of potential replacements. “By the end of the day, your body hurts so bad,” says Dickerson, who was among a small minority of females working as lumpers at the warehouse. “You tell them you can’t do it the next day, … they’ll tell you, ‘We’ve got four more people waiting for your job.’” For a while, Dickerson worked according to “piece rate” — she was paid not by the hour but by the trailer — a stressful pay scheme meant to encourage her and her colleagues to work faster and faster, and one that the labor movement worked hard to abolish in many industries in the 20th century. Each paycheck was different than the last, and most of them were disappointingly low, she says. In her year at the warehouse, Dickerson says she never had health benefits, sick days or vacation days. If she didn’t unload containers, she didn’t get paid. “It all depends on how fast you work,” she says. “It’s like a race. You’re racing to get done with the trailer so you can get another one. Otherwise, you won’t get enough money.” The warehouse floor wasn’t a very welcoming place for a woman, Dickerson says. As one of the relatively few female lumpers, she says she was often fending off crude overtures from male co-workers. And then there were the bathroom issues. While it was piece rate when it benefited the boss, the clock came on for break time. Each day Dickerson had two 15-minute personal breaks in addition to her lunch, but the warehouse was so sprawling — it covered ground equal to several football fields — that it could take her five minutes to walk each way to get some air or use the bathroom, leaving her with only five minutes of personal time. “When I used to go to the bathroom, I literally had somebody counting down the minutes,” Dickerson says. It was particularly difficult when she was on her period and she felt couldn’t use the restroom when she needed to. Eventually, she was being reprimanded for too many breaks, she says. Worried about losing her job, she says she tried so hard to avoid using the bathroom that she eventually developed a bladder infection. Physically and emotionally drained, Dickerson stopped showing up at the warehouse earlier this year. “My body still is not the same,” she says. “I still have aches and I still have pains. I have migraines because of the stress I went through working at that place.” Dickerson says she’s now living in a house where the electricity and water have been shut off, sharing a cell phone with some of her neighbors. She’s on government-sponsored health care, just as she was while working at the warehouse, and she now relies on food stamps to get by. The one place she refuses to take her food stamps is Walmart. * * * * * Walmart may have been the end beneficiary of Dickerson’s sweat, but the big-box retailer wasn’t directly responsible for her low pay or her aching body. That’s one of the many benefits to an employment arrangement based on outsourcing and subcontracting: The corporation at the top indemnifies itself from any unpleasantness at the bottom, thanks to the smaller corporate players in the middle. Many American companies have woken up to this fact, with broad implications for the future of blue-collar work. “It seems to be spreading like wildfire,” Nelson Lichtenstein, a professor of American labor history at the University of California, Santa Barbara, says of such outsourcing, particularly as it relates to temp workers like Dickerson. “All of these companies, wherever they possibly can, they want to create a workforce that doesn’t work for them. The question is, Why? What is the incentive? ” “They’re smart,” he says. “They run the numbers.” Earlier this year, temporary workers at a Pennsylvania plant packing Hershey products staged a mass walkout over what they described as abusive working conditions . The workers, who were students from Asia and Eastern Europe here on J-1 guest visas for the summer, said they were required to lift 50-pound boxes throughout the day and were threatened with deportation if they couldn’t keep up. Although they packed Hershey goods, the students were employed by a staffing company twice removed from Hershey, which had more than $5 billion in revenues last year. Similar outsourcing has spread to much of the American food-packing industry . But such sub-contracting isn’t contained to warehouses and plants. In an effort to cut costs, even hotels have started quietly contracting out a considerable chunk of their back-of-the-house workforce to labor agencies. Hyatt, for example, has replaced many of its housekeepers with cheaper temp workers. Hyatt’s direct hires now work alongside many lesser-paid agency workers, some of whom work on a temporary basis for years on end, tracking the minimum wage. Such subcontracting enables corporations to essentially take workers off their books, foisting the traditional responsibilities that go with being an employer — paying a reasonable wage, offering health benefits, providing a pension or retirement plan, chipping into workers’ compensation coverage — conveniently onto someone else. Workers like Dickerson, of course, aren’t accounted for when Walmart touts that more than half of its workforce receives health coverage. Infographic by Chris Spurlock. As manufacturing jobs continue to head overseas, Americans need new sectors that can provide good, middle-class work for millions of people. Driven as it is by the consumer economy, the retail supply chain should be one of those sectors. But plenty of workers who are lucky enough to have jobs in the industry find themselves earning poverty wages. And while workers get squeezed in the name of lower prices, the overall benefits to consumers may be illusory. By many measures, the middle class is shrinking — and not just because of the Great Recession. There are simply fewer jobs that pay good wages. More than 46 million Americans — roughly one in six — are now living in poverty, the highest number ever recorded by the Census Bureau. Between 2001 and 2007, as the economy boomed, poverty expanded among working-age people for the first time ever during a period of growth. Workers on the whole made less at the end of the boom than they did at the beginning. In the case of the warehouse industry, where permanent temps are now common, many workers performing the most difficult jobs don’t even enjoy the status of basic employees. They work at the pleasure of the agencies employing them. For many of them, getting hurt or slowing down means the end of their gig with no parting compensation — similar to the arrangement detailed in a devastating expose of an Amazon warehouse by the Pennsylvania Morning Call in September. “We have the re-industrialization of America in this distribution nexus,” says Lichtenstein. “It’s a booming sector of our economy. The kind of work they do is factory labor, and they should be earning [good wages] with benefits. But instead, it’s insecure, and it’s low-wage. “This is the blue-collar working class that should be replacing the steel worker,” he says. * * * * * Until a year ago, Debora Terkelson worked in the Costco warehouse near Mira Loma, Calif. She ran one of the cigarette machines, handling boxes of smokes, until she threw her back out moving a heavy load in April 2010, she says. She worked a few months of light duty but eventually even that proved too painful. No longer able to work, she’s now collecting workers’ compensation. “I don’t think I’ll ever be able to lift again,” says Terkelson, 48. “Just doing my laundry each day is a new adventure in pain.” Her life-altering injury notwithstanding, Terkelson had it pretty good by warehouse standards, and in many ways she’s lucky to be collecting workers’ comp benefits. She says the Costco distribution center is one of the good players in the Inland Empire, an area of Southern California that encompasses San Bernardino and Riverside counties and is now home to one of the largest warehouse clusters in the world. Costco’s well-earned reputation for treating its in-store employees well carries over to its warehouse. The Costco warehouse does not rely on temp workers. It hires employees directly, it pays pretty well and it has a safety representative and even stretching classes. Despite all that, the company still manages to provide some of the lowest prices available to consumers. “We tend to not outsource even if we could save money by doing it,” says Richard Galanti, Costco’s chief financial officer. “We recognize it might cost more but we think it’s the right thing to do. … Everyone in the building feels like they’re employed.” That attitude makes Costco an outlier in the area, Terkelson says. Her son worked in a nearby shoe warehouse for a temp agency. He came home exhausted each day, with little to show for it, though she guesses the agency made pretty good money off of his work. “They hire them, and as soon as they don’t need them, they get rid of them,” she says. “They don’t care. They treat them like a slave. I’m sorry.” Despite the economic downturn, the Inland Empire is still in the midst of a long-term warehousing boom. Some of the first arrived in the 1990s, when retailers and developers took notice of the area’s relatively affordable land and lax regulatory atmosphere. Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe’s all picked up warehouse space in the area. They continue to sprout up today, creeping further eastward, some of them with footprints covering more than a million square feet. As in Joliet, locals and politicians in Southern California have hoped warehouse work might replace the decent blue-collar jobs that disappeared with much of the American manufacturing sector in the late decades of the last century. Even if we no longer manufacture much in America, we will always need workers to handle all the clothing, electronics, furniture and toys that come here from Asia. And with its proximity to the ports in and around Los Angeles, where the cheap imports from China and elsewhere tend to land, the Inland Empire seemed poised as well as anyone to net a lot of working-class jobs. There’s no doubt that retailers and logistics companies have benefited from the Inland Empire’s warehouse boom. The question is whether blue-collar workers have benefited in kind. John Husing says they have. An economist who’s consulted to local governments dealing with the logistics industry, Husing says, “for blue collar workers, the decline in manufacturing shut off their access through that sector to the middle class. In Southern California in particular, logistics has become an alternative to get to the same place.” Others are less boosterish, including Juan De Lara, an assistant professor at the University of Southern California who’s studied the logistics industry in the region. “It’s been good to many workers who get paid decent wages for higher-skilled jobs as direct employees,” says De Lara. “But it’s also been pretty terrible for the workers that work for these temporary agencies.” There are now more than 125,000 direct-hire, full-time jobs in the Inland Empire’s logistics industry. Available data makes it difficult to know just how many temp jobs there. Husing doubts it’s more than 10,000. Others believe it’s several times that number — perhaps even half of all jobs in logistics, according to Warehouse Workers United , a union-backed group that now advocates on behalf of the area’s lowest-paid warehouse workers. (Husing dismisses the group’s numbers: “The people who throw that stuff around are ideologues. They don’t want that sector to survive because they consider it to be dirty.”) The group says the number of temp jobs in the region has skyrocketed in the last two decades, thanks largely to the explosion in the number of warehouses. The industry relies so heavily on temp work that many temp agencies actually have offices inside the warehouses themselves. Sheheryar Kaoosji, an organizer with Warehouse Workers United, says a decade ago, the ratio of direct hires to temps was 80 percent to 20 in many warehouses. “Now, it’s the opposite. And it’s accelerated with the [economic] crash,” Kaoosji says. “The way that these guys work — the way a Walmart operates — every year they’re going to push costs down on each of their contractors. Every year, they’re coming back, ‘This is going to cost less.’ Every year you do that, it’s going to have an effect. The conditions are going to go down. “At this point, the wages in some of the facilities have gone down below the federal and state minimums,” he says. * * * * * With most retailers getting the same products from the same place — i.e., Asia — the supply chain has become one of the few arenas where big-box chains can compete. This competition has led to a tremendous pressure to move goods as quickly as possible. Even the word “warehouse” itself has become something of a misnomer; the idea is no longer to house goods but to keep them moving, from port to rail to tractor-trailer to store display. That’s why many warehouses have morphed into what’s called a ” cross dock “: the products come in one side of the warehouse and almost immediately go out the other, barely touching the ground. Despite modern automation, most warehouses still require bodies, and the pressure to move goods faster and faster often falls on the ones at the bottom. It doesn’t help that many of the workers toiling inside the Inland Empire’s distribution centers are believed to be undocumented workers from Mexico — a workforce that’s generally grateful for whatever pay it can get and far less likely than American citizens to report workplace abuses, for fear of deportation. There’s plenty of opportunity for exploitation. According to charges filed by the California labor department this fall, a company operating in a warehouse handling Walmart goods was allegedly breaking labor law by not providing workers with legitimate earnings statements. Officials allege most of the lumpers were being paid on a piece rate plan that many of them couldn’t understand, in what officials have described as a “concerted effort” to cheat the workers out of their wages. The state issued more than $1 million in fines. The two labor suppliers cited, Tennessee-based Impact Logistics and North Carolina-based Premier Warehousing, apparently have contracts with Schneider, which, in turn, has a contract with Walmart. Neither Schneider nor Walmart has been accused of any wrongdoing, precisely the outcome the contractor arrangement facilitates. Julie Su, the California labor commissioner, told HuffPost at the time that the layers of outsourcing can make it nearly impossible to hold big players accountable — a huge collateral benefit in addition to any cost-cutting that goes with subcontracting. “Warehouses are one example of the ever-increasing contracting out of labor,” Su said. “It’s difficult for enforcement, and in many instances it’s a deliberate effort to avoid compliance.” Six lumpers at the warehouse filed a class-action lawsuit on the heels of the state investigation. Everardo Carrillo and his co-workers say they’ve been moving Walmart goods in a warehouse where the temperature regularly climbs to over 90 degrees, walking in and out of 53-foot-long steel containers that get even hotter baking in the Southern California sun. After working for a set hourly wage, the workers claim that a year and a half ago they were switched to a piece-rate pay plan — an arrangement largely out of a bygone era. Their bosses told them they would earn “much more money” under the new scheme, which paid them according to the container, but their earnings actually fell, according to the lawsuit. The workers claim it was never made clear how their pay was supposed to break down — an allegation apparently bolstered by the state’s investigation. They claim that when they complained about their confusing paychecks, their supervisors responded by sending them home without pay or refusing to give them work the following day. The lumpers were working on a temp basis. According to the lawsuit, the majority of workers were direct hires as recently as 2006; now, three out of every four workers are temps. When asked if a Schneider executive could be interviewed about allegations from temp workers in its warehouses, a spokesperson sent HuffPost a statement, saying its labor suppliers are “separate corporate entities”: “The only legal avenue which Schneider has to enforce their compliance would be to terminate the contract with these vendors. We have no plans to terminate the contracts with our vendors; our expectation is that they will comply with all applicable statutes, regulations and orders.” Walmart, whose products the workers were handling, also kept an arm’s length from the charges. When HuffPost reported on the state investigation and lawsuit in October, a Walmart spokesman said the retailer is “not involved in this matter.” When a similar lawsuit was filed in April in Illinois — again, naming low-level companies contracted to move Walmart products — the company asserted its distance from the allegations then as well, a spokesman noting that “the facility isn’t operated by Walmart nor are the people who work in it employed by Walmart.” In an interview, Walmart spokesman Dan Fogleman declines to say how much of Walmart’s logistics work is outsourced, but he says the company has 147 distribution centers across the country, the majority of them owned and operated by Walmart itself. Indeed, the jobs at Walmart’s smaller, more regional distribution centers are known to be good, highly coveted jobs. When asked why the company would outsource the work at some of its largest and most important facilities, Fogleman says there are times when a third-party can simply do it better, faster and cheaper. “Since the early days of our company, the ability to move products quickly and efficiently has really been a driver for our success,” Fogleman says. “We’re looking for every opportunity to improve our efficiencies. Sometimes that means doing it ourselves; sometimes we’re using partners to achieve that. … We’re an advocate for our customers. We’re doing everything we can to provide them with low prices.” As for the allegations from contracted workers in the Inland Empire and elsewhere, Fogleman says, “We have serious concerns when our contractors or sub-contractors are cited for those types of violations. We hold all of our contractors to the highest standards.” A promotional video for Impact Logistics, a company recently fined by the California labor department. Ana Sanchez, a 46-year-old from Mexico, says immigrants like her in the Inland Empire inevitably find themselves looking for work at the warehouses. In 2007, Sanchez herself took a job through a labor agency wrapping and labeling boxes on pallets inside a warehouse she says moved products for Sears and K-Mart, among others. Sanchez was surprised to learn that the work there was as strenuous as it was back in Mexico. She started at $6.75 an hour and says her wage climbed to more than $8 over time, though it was outstripped by a growing workload. Sanchez’ gig required carrying a roll of shrink wrap that, when full, weighed around 50 pounds, and slapping labels on boxes at a dizzying pace; she went through between 5,000 and 8,000 labels on a typical day, she says. “I would often get the heaviest loads of work because I was so fast,” Sanchez says. “Whenever there was a rush order they would call on me because I was two rolls quicker than the other girls.” The job also required a lot of stooping over in tight spaces. One day in 2009, Sanchez threw out her back while working on a rush order. She hoped to be put on light duty or trained for a new, less intensive job, but she says she was being passed back and forth between the company that ran the warehouse and the labor company that she technically worked for. Soon she was fired for allegedly botching an order, she says. “When you go in to work for a warehouse you give it your all,” she says. “When you get hurt, they treat you as though it doesn’t matter.” Sanchez hasn’t been able to do manual labor for two years. So what does she do for money? “I have a lot of friends and relatives who place orders for me to cook tamales,” she says with a shrug. To some people in the Inland Empire, the warehouses have come to represent a dubious bargain. Some good salaries have certainly come with the logistics industry; a directly hired forklift operator, for instance, can expect to make a decent living. But there weren’t supposed to be so many temporary positions with measly wages and no benefits. In fact, critics say that temp salaries weren’t even figured into the economic projections trotted out by industry boosters and developers who sold the public on the logistics industry. What they did include were the theoretical salaries of unionized warehouse workers and even airplane pilots. The Inland Empire’s thousands of warehouse jobs may also have come at a cost to public health. What used to be dairy fields and vineyards two decades ago are now warehouse tracts. Buffeted by mountains to the north and east, and absorbing winds coming from Los Angeles to the west, the Inland Empire has a geological gift for trapping particulate pollution. The area boasted some of the worst air in the country before the logistics boom; residents say it’s now even worse. Mira Loma Village, a community of 101 stucco townhouses populated mostly by Latino families, has been hemmed in by warehouses on all sides, with several thousand trucks rolling past the community each day. According to a study done by researchers at the University of Southern California, kids in Mira Loma have abnormally weak lung capacity and slow lung growth. And more warehouses are on their way. “I see it. I smell it. I can feel it,” says Laura Borrayo, 42, a Mira Loma resident whose backyard is often coated in a layer of soot from the truck traffic. She says some of the neighborhood children have developed asthma due to the bad air. Citing some of the worst diesel pollution in the country, Mira Loma residents have filed a lawsuit to stop the latest logistics project — an additional 24 warehouses, covering 1.4 million square feet and expected to bring another 1,500 trucks per day, according to the L.A. Times . Residents say the project will occupy what has become the last shred of their buffer zone against the warehouses, taking away their view of the mountains in the process. The lawsuit has put the project on hold for the moment. Among the residents in Mira Loma Village opposed to more warehouses is Terkelson, the Costco warehouse employee. “I’ve lived in this area for years. When I was a kid, it was beautiful out here,” Terkelson says. “But everything went downhill. People don’t even realize what they’re breathing. The soot, it’s nasty. I don’t wash my car no more, because it doesn’t do no good.” Residents haven’t had much luck fighting warehouses in the past, having been cast as opponents of much-needed jobs. Riverside County has an unemployment rate hovering around 14 percent. Penny Newman, director of the Center for Community Action and Environmental Justice, which filed the Mira Loma lawsuit, says the kinds of jobs brought by the warehouses aren’t worth the costs. “There was a lot of fanfare about goods movement being the economic engine of the future,” says Newman. “We’ve discovered that these are not the kinds of jobs anyone should have under the conditions they’re facing. … They’re temp jobs and they’re low-paying and the conditions are bad.” “The money is made by others,” Newman says. * * * * * For a lot of the goods that enter the U.S. through the Inland Empire, the next stop is the greater Joliet area, among the largest rail hubs in the country. Within a day’s drive of two-thirds of the country, Joliet itself is now home to not one but two massive “intermodal terminals” — the two modes being rail and truck — receiving freight from the West Coast that’s then hauled to the area’s warehouses and, later, to stores across the U.S. For one former Teamster who found himself unemployed last year, the growth of the logistics industry in Will County looked like his ticket back into the middle class. Last year this Joliet native, who’s in his 50′s, responded to an ad in the local paper; a labor agency was bringing on workers to move goods for a major retailer. The firm promises to save its clients on labor costs while simultaneously boosting worker efficiency. (Due to ongoing litigation, neither the worker nor the company will be identified.) Demonstrating just how booming the logistics industry is in Joliet, the man says the firm was actually sending vehicles out into the community as part of a mobile hiring effort, a bit of proactive recruitment that’s hard to find in this economy. He was quickly hired, probably due to his past experience, and to what he pitched as his greatest strength: “I don’t miss days.” The fact that this man found himself working as a warehouse temp speaks to his diminished opportunities. He’d been a Teamster for 12 years, driving a truck for a bread company that was eventually shut down, and then for a waste-management company that was relocated to the other side of Chicago, making the commute untenable. It was the kind of good living that’s now hard to find. Aside from whatever highly desired jobs remain at the area’s lingering refineries, he sees little work outside of the area’s new warehouses. “That’s all that’s out here,” he says. His trucking experience landed him a pretty cherry gig at the warehouse. He worked primarily as a “spotter,” pulling loaded trucks from the bay doors and parking them for the drivers who would take them away to other, smaller distribution centers. He was paid $12 per hour to start, about a buck more than most other new hires, he says. Though he was merely a temp without job security, he considered himself pretty lucky. “I kind of liked the job,” he says. “It wasn’t a bad job.” But about six months in, he says he started to understand how everything worked by design. He was shocked by the warehouse’s turnover rate, as new workers constantly came and went, often leaving under bad terms. He guesses the average worker lasted three months, many of them eventually being “pointed out.” As in many of Joliet’s warehouses, he and his colleagues were working under a demerit system, receiving points for being tardy, missing shifts or not “making rate.” Once you hit 10 points, you’re gone, he says. He now argues that workers don’t last in part because they’re not supposed to. New workers, after all, are cheaper workers. And he also says the little-known temp agencies are there largely to facilitate the churn. “That’s part of the trick — to put as many people between [the retailers] and the actual workers, so they don’t have to deal with the actual workers,” he says. “They don’t have this headache. … They put these temp services between them and the people.” The former Teamser’s duties evolved at the warehouse, and eventually he found himself filling online orders to be shipped directly to customers’ homes. Working off an order list, he was expected to pick 500 boxes during his 12-hour shift — tight but doable. The problem, he says, is that sometimes the products weren’t where they were supposed to be, which cut into his efficiency rate. He says he was supposed to hit a perfect 100 percent each day, but sometimes he dropped into the 90s due to missing products. He clashed with a supervisor over the issue. “How do you expect me to be perfect when the system isn’t perfect?” he asks. One year into his job, he says he was canned after barely missing his rate three days in a row, earning three consecutive writeups — a fireable offense. He wasn’t shocked. Having just hit his one-year anniversary, he had become expensive, at least by warehouse standards. His pay had risen to $14 an hour — still not a living wage for the area by some measures, but more than many lumpers will ever see. He had also just started to accrue paid vacation time. Or at least he thought he had. According to a lawsuit the man filed earlier this year, his company had agreed to give employees one week of paid vacation after they’d worked for the company for a full year. When he was terminated, he was told he’d come up a mere 40 work hours short of earning vacation. But the man says management’s tally ignored the considerable overtime he’d worked during the peak season. The company wouldn’t relent, so he and a colleague sued. In addition to the vacation issue, they sued the company for not paying workers for a minimum of four hours on days when they were sent home early or without any work at all, as an Illinois law now mandates. The company has denied the allegations. Like many warehouse workers interviewed for this story, the former Teamster has spent a lot of time wondering how much money the agency made off of his work merely for supplying him. The way he sees it, the reliance of Walmart and others on temp agencies is the reason most of the warehouse jobs will never lead to stable living, just the financial anxiety of someone who’s temping in perpetuity. “You can’t build on working at these warehouses,” he says. “I can’t say, ‘Sweetheart, let’s get married. Let’s have a baby.’ Because I don’t know how long it’s going to last. I know I’m working now, but will I be working six months from now? And how much money are they going to screw me out of?” * * * * * The Chicago area has long been home to warehouse jobs, and the vast majority of them used to be decent, blue-collar jobs, says Mark Meinster, international representative with the United Electrical, Radio and Machine Workers of America Union, or UE , which is leading an organizing effort of warehouse workers in Joliet. Meinster says that over the last two decades the jobs have changed along with the retail industry. With a growing focus on efficiency and cost-cutting within the supply chain, what had been secure and well-paying union jobs are now often low-paying temp jobs, he says. A UE-backed group called Warehouse Workers for Justice interviewed workers at more than 150 area warehouses in 2009, finding that despite plenty of good managerial positions, about 63 percent of the workers in local warehouses are temps earning less than direct hires. One in four avail themselves of food stamps or welfare, and more than a third have to work a second job to make ends meet. (Warehouse Workers for Justice has no affiliation with the California group Warehouse Workers United.) “As late as the mid ’90s, you saw many warehouse jobs that paid a living wage,” says Meinster. “In Chicago, we define that as $15.87 an hour. Now, we’re finding that the average wage is somewhere around $9 an hour. Only 4 percent of the workers get sick days. Many are on government assistance. Sixty-two percent earn below the federal poverty line.” John Grueling isn’t so bearish. As the head of the Will County Center for Economic Development , a nonprofit development corporation that did much to attract the industry to Joliet, Grueling says the logistics industry has brought some much-needed jobs to the area as manufacturing has declined. Although he admits that the proliferation of temps is something that concerns him, he says the good jobs outweigh the bad. “The competition is so severe that they’re going to do what they have to do, and in some cases, what they can get away with it,” Grueling says of the companies operating in the warehouses. “But we think the industry as a whole is very healthy for us.” (Grueling says his group no longer tries to lure logistics operations with juicy tax breaks the way they used to.) Whatever the savings may be, there’s another benefit to the subcontracting model for the likes of Walmart: the splintered workforce among all the temp agencies creates a tremendous obstacle to unionization. Plenty of workers who aren’t necessarily conspiracy theorists consider it a form of strategic disorganization emanating from down on high. Unionization drives are easily scuttled. When it became apparent that temps were organizing at a Joliet warehouse for vacuum manufacturer Bissell two years ago, the workers soon found themselves out of a job . Fragmented though they are, dozens of warehouse workers have managed to file class-action lawsuits alleging wage theft in the last couple of years, many of them with the help of a Chicago lawyer named Chris Williams, co-founder of the Working Hands Legal Clinic, which litigates on behalf of low-wage workers. Williams wrote a piece of legislation called the Day and Temporary Labor Services Act , an attempt by Illinois to wrap its hands around its booming and shadowy temp labor industry. The law requires that labor agencies register with the state and also provide workers with written forms explaining what kind of work they’ll be doing and how much they’ll be paid for the assignment. Such rudimentary protections are needed, Williams says. He and other worker advocates have discovered fly-by-night temp agencies operating out of area garages, convenience store parking lots and, in one case, a Super 8 motel room. In a lawsuit filed last month, 18 workers at the Walmart-contracted warehouse accused a temp company called Eclipse of not paying them the minimum wage and failing to pay them for all the hours they worked. One worker, Roberto Gutierrez, says he worked 21 hours in his first week and was paid a mere $57. On his paystub the company says Gutierrez worked only 12.5 hours, though by their math he still doesn’t seem to have been earning the minimum wage. According to another lawsuit, one of the temp agencies charged applicants for their own employment background checks; when the cost was deducted from their first checks, it pushed their pay below the minimum wage. Such lawsuits are fast becoming a cost of doing business for the temp companies. “There’s a huge problem with people being shorted,” says Williams. “In aggregate, it’s millions and millions in savings” for the companies. So far, most of the energy from gadflies like Williams has been devoted to the Walmart supply chain. Like others, Williams argues that Walmart has trailblazed the temp-worker model within the retail world, and that other major retailers are simply following its path, as they often do. None of the lawsuits involving the Walmart warehouse have touched Walmart itself. But the way Illinois’ temp labor law was written, a company at the top of a contracting tree could feasibly be held accountable for abuses at the bottom. In one case, Williams discovered that there were four companies separating Walmart from the workers who were handling Walmart goods at the warehouse. “I believe Walmart is experimenting,” Williams says. Of the area’s warehouses generally, he adds, “You’ll see temp agencies that supervise temp agencies that deal with temp agencies. It just adds another level of distance.” According to worker Demetrie Collins, the presence of temp companies has been growing just as the conditions and pay have been deteriorating. Collins says he earned a pretty good wage running a forklift at one of the warehouses five years ago. Then, after a break from work and a prison stint for a drug charge, he says he returned to the warehouses to see temp workers everywhere. He got on as a lumper at a warehouse but was fired earlier this year, he says. Unemployed, he now volunteers at Warehouse Workers for Justice. “Hell yeah, there’s more temp agencies,” says Collins. “Used to be they’d pay you good. But now, the warehouses are paying you shitty, and there’s nothing you can do about it. Fire them today, temp services gonna replace them tomorrow. They can treat the workers however they wanna treat them.” The downsides of temping go well beyond lower wages and fewer benefits. Many workers have to call in to the warehouse each morning to see if they still have a job for the day, essentially making them job seekers-in-perpetuity. The supplication can be demoralizing. One former lumper told HuffPost his temp status once cost him a loan — from a payday lender. The lender apparently thought he posed too great a risk, seeing as he had no guarantee on his employment from week to week. Meinster, of the UE, says the temp system creates an entire tier of workers who are basically second-class. “Despite the fact that these workers are paid poverty-level wages, we estimate that about a trillion dollars comes through Chicago on an annual basis,” says Meinster. “That’s about $6 million per warehouse worker. Each worker is responsible for moving $6 million worth of goods through that supply chain. These are the workers who, collectively, if they don’t show up for a day, these companies would stand to lose a lot of money. “That’s something these companies need to pay attention to,” he says. * * * * * A few months ago, the former Teamster heard about 50 job openings at the warehouse for Central Foods, a food wholesaler based in Joliet. The positions were similar to ones at the warehouse where he’d temped, but the pay and benefits seemed to be from another world. The Central Foods jobs were union jobs, starting out at a livable $16 an hour, with good health coverage, an annual raise, a 401(k) and a chance to make as much as $24 an hour after a few years, he says. “What was the difference?” the former Teamster asks rhetorically. “No temp service.” Unfortunately, word about the direct-hire jobs had apparently spread throughout Joliet, with the competition so fierce that it made the local news. “Here they have health benefits and a pension,” one man told the Joliet Herald-News in wonderment. “I never had a job that could do that for me.” Another applicant bemoaned all the temp warehouse jobs on his resume. “It makes me look like a job hopper, but I’m not,” he said. When the former Teamster arrived to apply, scores of eager jobs seekers were already there, with a line coming out the door and snaking around the corner. Ultimately, more than a thousand people threw their hats in the ring, many of them boasting previous warehouse experience. The former Teamster waited nearly three hours to put in his application and make his trusty pitch: “I don’t miss days.” Must be a great gig if you can get it, he thought.

Read the full article →

With End Of Puerto Rico Tax Break, Corporations Look Offshore

December 20, 2011

On either side of a two-lane road and surrounded by the lush green mountains of Villalba in central Puerto Rico, stand a pair of manufacturing plants owned by Medtronic Inc. (MDT), the world’s biggest maker of heart-rhythm devices. Medtronic does more than half of its $16 billion in annual sales of pacemakers, defibrillators and other devices in the U.S. It manufactures the equipment at this facility, legacy of a defunct U.S. tax break designed to encourage investment on the poverty-stricken island. Yet, Medtronic credits the income to a mailbox in a Cayman Islands office building.

Read the full article →

EU Finance Chiefs To Discuss IMF Loan Aimed At Boosting Crisis Firewall

December 19, 2011

BRUSSELS — European Union finance ministers have to figure out Monday how they will split up the euro200 billion ($261 billion) in extra loans they have promised the International Monetary Fund Monday in an effort to boost the eurozone’s crisis firewall. Reaching the euro200 billion target may become difficult after the U.K., the largest economy among the 10 EU states that don’t use the euro, said it won’t contribute any additional funds to the IMF. Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria have also ruled out sending any additional money to the Washington-based fund. Earlier Monday, Poland’s finance minister Jacek Rostowski said his country plans to lend around euro6 billion ($7.8 billion) to the IMF by committing reserves of the National Bank of Poland. Denmark, which will take over the EU presidency from Poland in January, has said it will contribute euro5.4 billion, while Sweden, another non-euro state, has promised to contribute an as yet unspecified amount. In their afternoon conference call, the ministers will also compare notes on a first draft for a new treaty meant to tighten fiscal discipline within the eurozone, which was circulated Friday, said Kacper Chmielewski, spokesman for the Polish delegation to the EU. Of the 27 EU states, only the U.K. has said it will definitely not join the new accord, while the nine other non-euro states have indicated their support as long as their parliaments agree. The preliminary deals to set up a new treaty and provide up to euro200 billion in new loans to the IMF were the main outcomes of an EU summit 10 days ago, which has so far failed to convince financial markets that Europe can exit its escalating debt crisis. Investors were disappointed that the eurozone did not agree to commit more money to its own bailout funds or open the door for large-scale intervention by the European Central Bank. Many economists have called on the ECB to spend much more money buying up government bonds in an effort to lower the borrowing costs of struggling states like Italy and Spain and boost economic growth. However, ECB President Mario Draghi again dampened hopes for a bigger role of the ECB in an interview published in the Financial Times Monday. “The important thing is to restore the trust of the people – citizens as well as investors – in our continent,” Draghi was quoted as saying. “We won’t achieve that by destroying the credibility of the ECB.” The ECB chief, who will speak in front of a committee of the European Parliament later Monday, also broke a taboo by acknowledging for the first time the possibility of a country leaving the eurozone – although he immediately stressed that a euro exit would not be a solution to any country’s financial troubles. “Leaving the euro area, devaluing your currency, you create a big inflation, and at the end of that road, the country would have to undertake the same reforms that were due to begin with, but in a much weaker position,” he said. ___ Vanessa Gera in Warsaw, Poland, and Meera Selva in London contributed to this story.

Read the full article →

Crunch Time: Bank Downgrade, Credit Squeeze Signal Possible Return To 2008

December 15, 2011

The situation in Europe is hitting global credit markets, making it harder for companies and banks to secure loans. Investors are buying fewer corporate bonds, and banks are finding it more difficult to borrow from each other. On Thursday, as the European Central Bank again resisted pleas for it to rescue the eurozone, worries about a severe credit crunch along the lines of the 2008 crisis grew. “In some ways this is part two of the U.S. financial crisis,” said Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, an economist at the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center. Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings downgraded nine major banks on Thursday, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. While acknowledging that the banks are in better shape now than in 2008, the rating agency cited vulnerability to the increased market turmoil stemming from “economic developments and regulatory challenges.” Many fear that one cataclysmic event — such as the default of Italy or a major European bank failure — could freeze credit markets, plunging the world into a recession similar to the downturn resulting from the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008. “As the situation in Europe goes, so does the global economy,” said Adrian Miller, fixed-income strategist at Miller Tabak Roberts Securities. Miller said that the bond markets have been moving in sync with the European crisis; recently he’s noted that investors are growing wary of lending even to so-called safe businesses. Global investors are buying about 40 percent fewer new high-quality U.S. corporate bonds than in mid-May, according to Miller. Meanwhile, there’s been about a 70 percent plunge in the purchasing of new, risky U.S. corporate bonds: While global investors bought about $8 billion of these bonds per week in mid-May, now they are buying just $2.5 billion. As European banks slash lending in order to meet new capital requirements, European companies have been hit somewhat harder. Purchases of newly issued risky European corporate bonds have plunged about 80 percent since mid-May, according to Miller. Banks also are finding it harder to borrow from one another. It is now more than twice as expensive to secure a three-month loan from another bank than at the beginning of August, according to Rich Gordon, managing director of fixed-income market strategy at Wells Fargo Securities. On Thursday Fitch downgraded Bank of America and Goldman Sachs’ long-term debt to A from A+, Barclays’ long-term debt to A from AA-, BNP Paribas’ long-term debt to A+ from AA-, Credit Suisse’s long-term debt to A from AA-, and Deutsche Bank’s long-term debt to A from AA-. The downgrades reflect “balance sheet damage” emanating from the increased riskiness of European sovereign debt, but they would not result in any major economic repercussions, said Michael Spence, a Nobel Prize-winning economics professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business. “There has been some significant credit tightening already,” Spence said. He added that the Federal Reserve ultimately would step in if credit markets dry up. “If left unattended, it will cause some damage, but I don’t think it will be left unattended,” he said. In a speech in Berlin on Thursday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi disappointed investors when he repeated that the bank would not come to the rescue and step in to buy large amounts of government bonds. “There is no external savior for a country that doesn’t want to save itself,” Draghi said. In an attempt to reassure the audience and jittery investors across the globe, Draghi said that “a return of confidence,” stemming from government budget cuts, likely would materialize and mitigate the economic damage of austerity measures in struggling countries. Observers were not reassured. “There isn’t any likelihood of it [confidence] returning,” said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wells Fargo Securities. Bryson added that the ECB is the only organization with the firepower to save European countries and banks from default, and that ultimately when it seems to have no other choice, it will most likely step in. “Authorities at least in the past have always blinked, or generally have always blinked,” Bryson said. Markets slightly recovered but remained cautious on Thursday after the previous day’s turmoil. The interest rate on 10-year Italian government bonds fell slightly but remained above the unsustainable 7 percent level. Russian leaders said that they would step in to help, indicating that the country would lend more than $10 billion to the International Monetary Fund, as a backstop for struggling European governments. Europe’s troubles first came to light in 2010 when Greece’s debt troubles caused a financial panic. And the situation continues to evolve, reminding some of the slow motion pace of the U.S. housing market collapse, which took hold in 2007 and triggered the financial crisis in 2008. After Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy in September of that year, banks stopped lending to each other, fearful that more failures were coming. Banks hiked the cost of their loans to other banks (like they’re doing now), making it more difficult for banks to come up with the capital necessary to cover all of their liabilities. Meanwhile, as more investments in the housing market fell apart, banks were forced to pay out insurance on those mortgage defaults. But they didn’t have the money. Companies that relied on short-term financing to maintain their daily operations found themselves on the brink of shutting down, as loans became prohibitively expensive. Major banks were about to fail. After the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve rescued the U.S. banking system from collapse, credit remained tight in 2009, and companies that were unable to secure loans ended expansion plans and laid off workers, reducing consumer demand and worsening the economy. That forced companies to cut even more workers and making lending even tighter. Though the vicious cycle of layoffs and reductions in lending has ended, it could resume again if the crisis in Europe spirals out of control with a default by the Italian government, said Stijn van Nieuwerburgh, associate finance professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business. “As banks become less and less solvent, or their bottom lines are hit, they’ll be less inclined to do risky lending,” he said. Catherine New contributed reporting.

Read the full article →

Russia Makes Big Promise To Keep Euro From Collapsing

December 15, 2011

BRUSSELS — Russian officials indicated Thursday that their country may offer more than the $10 billion it already has promised the International Monetary Fund to help support the struggling euro currency. Speaking at a news conference with EU President Herman van Rompuy and European Commission head Jose Manuel Barroso, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said: “We are ready to invest the necessary financial means to back the EU and the eurozone. We are ready to consider other measures of support.” He didn’t elaborate, but Russian officials have said their country would offer up to $10 billion to the IMF to help support the euro. And Arkady Dvorkovich, a Medvedev economic adviser, indicated Thursday the total may be greater because Russia has a big economic stake in the EU, where a debt crisis is dragging down economies and the 17-nation eurozone. “We are ready to contribute our part via the IMF. We are committed to do it. Ten billion dollars is the minimum commitment,” Dvorkovich told journalists reporting from the 28th EU-Russia summit in Brussels, where other major issues included visa liberalization and alleged fraud during Russia’s parliamentary election last week. Last week, EU governments said they would give the IMF euro200 million ($264 billion), which in turn could help out the eurozone. The fund also expects other nations to participate in the rescue fund. Medvedev said it is in Russia’s interest to assist its largest trade partner overcome the economic crisis. Russia exports more to the EU than to any other market, and Russia is the EU’s third-largest trading partner. Total trade amounts to euro245 billion ($318 billion). Russia also is the EU’s most important source of energy imports, accounting for nearly a quarter of its natural gas consumption and 30 percent of its oil. Medvedev said that 41 percent of his country’s foreign currency reserves are denominated in euros. “Russia is interested in the EU’s preservation as a powerful economic and political force,” Medvedev said. “We have advantageous ties, and for us united Europe is very important.” Van Rompuy, meanwhile, acknowledged that Russia and the EU “are strongly interdependent.” Van Rompuy was hosting Medvedev for the twice-yearly meeting. The summit came as the World Trade Organization was set to approve Russia’s long-delayed membership on Friday. Russia – the largest economy still outside the WTO – has been trying to join for 18 years. A Swiss-brokered deal with Georgia last month cleared the last major hurdle for Russia. Medvedev thanked the EU for its support of Russia’s candidacy, saying: “It will give a strong impulse to our cooperation.” Van Rompuy said: “Russian WTO accession is a major achievement (which) opens a myriad of possibilities for trade and growth.” Medvedev dismissed complaints about the conduct of Russia’s Dec. 4 legislative elections. On Wednesday, European Parliament speaker Jerzy Buzek called for new free-and-fair elections and a probe into reports of fraud and intimidation at Russian polling stations. “It means nothing to me,” Medvedev said. The EU has avoided overt criticism of the elections, which have sparked massive anti-government protests in Moscow and other Russian cities. After years of negotiations, the two sides also launched a set of joint steps that will lead to visa-free travel for Russian citizens – a long-standing goal in relations. The measures include the introduction of biometric passports, as well as improved border management to combat transnational crime, terrorism and corruption. Officials said Syria and Iran were also discussed. Russia has blocked a bid by the United States and EU nations to impose sanctions against Syria, where a government crackdown on dissidents has killed thousands of people. Russia opposes any further moves against Iran, whose nuclear program worries the West. ___ Slobodan Lekic can be reached on Twitter at http://twitter.com/slekich

Read the full article →

Ben Bernanke: Fed Doesn’t Have ‘Authority’ To Bail Out Europe

December 14, 2011

WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Republican senators on Wednesday the Fed can’t and won’t provide bailout funds to support European banks or nations, lawmakers said. “We’re all concerned, is the American taxpayer going to be bailing out European nations and banks,” Senator Lindsey Graham told reporters after a meeting with the Fed chairman. “He said, no, he doesn’t have the intention or authority to do that,” Graham said. (Reporting By Mark Felsenthal and Pedro Nicolaci da Costa; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

Read the full article →

OECD: Europe Must Act To Stop Youth Jobs Crisis

December 13, 2011

PARIS (Anna Maria Jakubek) – Europe must invest in jobs for young people despite the reigning climate of austerity or risk long-term consequences for growth and competitiveness, an international panel of employment experts said on Tuesday. With youth jobless rates across the European Union averaging an alarmingly high 20 percent, governments need to fight the trend by stimulating growth, creating jobs and training youths, said the researchers from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Jobless rates among young people vary widely across the 27-member bloc, rising as high as 45 percent in Spain in the second quarter versus 7 percent in the Netherlands. Some countries, including the Netherlands and Germany, have kept youth unemployment low thanks in part to apprenticeship and mentoring programs which the OECD said should not count as spending items in national budgets. “It’s an investment for the present, an investment for the future, so I think that while we are thinking about where to cut, we have to bear this in mind,” said Stefano Scarpetta, deputy director of the OECD’s employment division, speaking at a two-day conference at the Paris-based body. Not only do governments need to increase benefits for the unemployed, but they should also help to reintegrate jobless youths into the labor market by helping them look for jobs and training them to work in new sectors, the panel said. “This should not be just passive income support and then the young person stays at home waiting for a job to come,” Scarpetta said. High jobless rates have dogged Europe for decades. But youth unemployment has emerged as a particular concern during the European debt crisis as companies in countries with high labor costs eschewed making new hires. While overall EU unemployment hit 9.8 percent at the end of October 2011, the rate for youths has risen at a much faster pace, to 22 percent in October 2011 from 16 percent in 2007, according to the European Commission. The struggle to find jobs was not confined to the unskilled and poorly educated, the panel said. “People with higher education are just not getting jobs, and we can’t allow that sort of waste of the investment in education skills to start to evaporate away in terms of hopelessness, frustration,” said John Evans, general secretary of the OECD advisory on union issues. Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

Read the full article →

ECB’s Stark: More IMF Involvement In Europe ‘Would Be Act Of Desperation’

December 12, 2011

Higher involvement by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the euro zone’s efforts to stem its debt crisis would be an act of desperation, outgoing European Central Bank chief economist Juergen Stark said, calling for a quantum leap by the currency bloc. “It would be an act of desperation,” he was quoted as saying by Sueddeutsche Zeitung due for publication on Monday. Stark said he envisaged an informal panel of experts to check on member states’ budgets. “That would be the nucleus for a future European finance ministry,” he said. (Reporting by Annika Breidthardt) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

Read the full article →

Post Euro Deal, Investors Brace For Big Moves

December 11, 2011

NEW YORK — NEW YORK (AP) – Europe’s fiscal pact may save the euro from collapse and stave off worldwide financial panic. But the concerns of many investors are more personal: Will it lift my flagging 401(k)? The answer from the stock market on Friday was hopeful. As a summit of European leaders concluded with an agreement to deal with their debt crisis, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 1.7 percent, capping a second straight week of gains. Then again, stocks have rallied after other summits – more than a dozen in two years – only to fall again. And the reaction from even the optimists isn’t particularly reassuring. Hank Smith, chief investment officer of Haverford Investments, says stocks could rise “sharply and quickly” – but only if there’s more “good news” from Europe. And that assumes you agree that Friday’s deal was good at all. In that deal, all 17 countries that use the euro agreed to allow a central European authority to oversee their future budgets. They also agreed to automatic penalties if they spend too much. But the deal won’t help cut debt today, which in Italy, Greece and Spain has driven government borrowing costs close to levels considered unsustainable. All eyes are now on the European Central Bank, and whether it’s willing to buy enough national bonds from those countries to keep interest rates down. The frustration for investors is that Europe has drowned out a string of good news in the U.S. that should have moved stock prices higher. U.S. companies are making more money than ever, signs are growing the economy is recovering and stocks are cheap compared with earnings. So far this year, investors have endured stomach-churning moves up and down in stocks. But in the end, not much has changed. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 1,255; it started the year at 1,258. The Dow Jones industrial average, thanks to a 33 percent rise in IBM, has performed a little better – up 5 percent. Jim Russell, equity strategist at US Bank Wealth Management, is befuddled. “Stocks are bad – sell them,” he says, mocking the prevailing attitude in the markets. “It doesn’t matter if you blow out earnings.” Russell is hoping that Europe’s latest deal means U.S. investors will forget about the region for a while, focus on the fact that big U.S. companies have increased profits by double-digit percentages for 10 consecutive quarters – and maybe even start buying again. But the only thing he’s convinced is sure to come is more wild stock moves. Since August, S&P 500 stocks have gyrated by 1.7 percent a day, more than twice the average for the index over two decades. The Dow average of blue chip stocks has seen similar volatility. The culprit: Europe. Early last month, the Dow plunged 389 points one day on news that squabbling Greek politicians might not be able to push through needed reforms. A few days later, the Italian Senate passed a new austerity budget and the Dow rose 260 points. Then it dropped 326 points over two days on fears that U.S. banks had bet too heavily on Europe continuing to pay its bills and on news of a sudden spike in Italian borrowing costs. Then, another reversal. Six central banks announced they would make it easier for European lenders to borrow themselves, and the Dow jumped 490 points. In addition to tighter controls on spending, Europe’s new “fiscal compact” calls for the launch of a permanent eurozone bailout fund in 2012, a year ahead of schedule. The deal also will send 200 billion euros ($267.41 billion) to the International Monetary Fund, which controls another emergency fund for countries in crisis. Jeffrey Sica of Sica Wealth Management thinks the pact is inadequate, and stocks could fall 15 percent once investors wake up to that fact. He doesn’t think the European Central Bank will buy enough bonds to keep borrowing costs down. That could lead to a country defaulting on its bonds. Banks in the region holding government debt would suffer big losses, and some would collapse. U.S. banks would also get hit with losses. “We had all this anticipation leading up to the meeting,” he says. “But nothing much happened.” Sica, who manages $1 billion for clients, sold all of his stocks in August, and put proceeds in U.S. Treasury bills and into so-called “short” bets that stocks will fall. His view is a nightmare, but even if you don’t buy it, there is plenty to worry about. U.S. companies have generated record profits in part by cutting costs, including eliminating jobs. But there’s a limit to how much they can squeeze suppliers and pile work on remaining employees. The other path to riches has been to sell more abroad, but there are signs that may prove difficult soon, too. This past week, Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, reported its exports plunged in October. That followed bad news from a widely followed survey suggesting that the eurozone economy had likely contracted last month, which would make it the third monthly drop in a row. Many experts now think Europe is already in recession or will soon enter one. This matters because S&P 500 companies get 14 percent of their revenue from Europe. Asia is in better shape, but investors there are jittery, too. The Chinese economy is slowing. Stocks in Shanghai have fallen in six of the last eight trading days. Not surprisingly, some CEOs have been sounding more dour lately. Many have slashed their guidance on earnings for next year. On Friday, chemical giant DuPont and semiconductor maker Lattice Semiconductor Corp. cut their financial outlooks for the current quarter. That followed a warning from Texas Instruments Inc. a day earlier that its revenue might fall short of expectations. “We’ve seen the market highs for the year,” says Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. “Europe will be in recession and corporate earnings here could be challenging.” Russell, the US Bank strategist, agrees that Europe is in trouble but he’s still cheery about U.S. stocks. He thinks earnings at S&P companies might grow only 7 percent in 2012, half the rate this year. Still, he’s urging investors to buy. Even at that lower rate, stocks are trading at roughly 12 times their projected earnings per share versus a long-term average of nearly 17 times, he says. Translation: They’re cheap. “We think investors will like what they see,” says Russell, assuming they “refocus on fundamentals.” Given Europe’s troubles, it’s a big assumption.

Read the full article →

Wall Street Finishes Week Higher After EU Deal

December 9, 2011

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stocks rallied on Friday, finishing the week higher after European Union leaders agreed on a plan to toughen the region’s budget rules to help restore market confidence after a two-year sovereign debt crisis. The agreement went some way to address the structural problems behind the bloc’s debt crisis, but investors said more was now needed to relieve stress in the region’s troubled debt markets. “The fiscal agreement will help, but not for long,” said George Feiger, chief executive of Contango Capital Advisors based in San Francisco. “There is no happy ending to the situation. There are just solutions that are not horrible,” he said. Equities had risen in anticipation of a plan, with the S&P 500 up 6.5 percent since late November. But Wall Street tumbled on Thursday after the European Central Bank dashed hopes for additional bond buying. There are investors who believe the ECB will eventually have to commit to bigger purchases of euro zone sovereign debt to shore up the battered market. At least part of Friday’s rally was a snap-back from the previous session’s losses, traders said. The Dow Jones industrial average ended up 186.56 points, or 1.55 percent, at 12,184.26. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 20.84 points, or 1.69 percent, at 1,255.19. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 50.47 points, or 1.94 percent, at 2,646.85. For the week, the Dow rose 1.4 percent, the S&P gained 0.9 percent and the Nasdaq was up 0.8 percent. Banks, which have been pressured by the uncertainty over Europe, rallied after the EU summit. Bank of America Corp rose 2.3 percent to $5.72, while JPMorgan Chase & Co added 3 percent to $33.18. The Financial Select Sector SPDR rose 2 percent. In the latest sign of resilience in the U.S. economy, consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in six months in early December on signs of a better jobs market and an improving economy, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan. The EU summit failed to secure changes to the EU treaty among all the member countries and investors warned the move was far from a panacea. Indications suggest the region is sliding into a recession and questions about how to bring down high sovereign debt yields are still unanswered. Goldman Sachs suggested that investors short German equities through the benchmark DAX index in a note to clients published late on Thursday. “The European summit seems focused on a set of future priorities for increased fiscal risk sharing and the outlining of some of the needed elements of a new fiscal arrangement, but looks to have little to say about alleviating proximate stresses in Greece and Italy and the European banking system more generally,” Goldman said. Still, Italian bonds reversed losses, with traders citing frequent European Central Bank forays into Italian debt markets throughout the day. Traders also said “fast money” accounts were covering short positions in bonds of so-called peripheral EU countries. Some caution signals were sent by major U.S. companies. DuPont and Co fell 3.1 percent to $45.04 after the Dow component cut its 2011 profit outlook, citing slower growth in some businesses. Texas Instruments Inc cut its revenue outlook for the current quarter, warning of lower demand. The stock ended flat at $29.94. (Reporting By Angela Moon; Editing by Kenneth Barry) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

Read the full article →

Peter S. Goodman: Europe’s Currency Union: A Bad Marriage That May Have To End

December 9, 2011

The European currency union has become like a bad marriage whose deep-seated problems have burst embarrassingly into public view, while the beleaguered partners stay together for the sake of the children. Maybe it’s finally time for the unhappy couple to own up to the fact that they were never meant to be together. They bring too much historical baggage (a couple of World Wars, disagreements about whether it’s okay for pork products to hang in shop windows). It often seem as if they are speaking different languages! The children — Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland, for openers — might actually be better off living by themselves. (Because, really, if your parents were Germany and France, with each decision in your life requiring their peaceful concurrence, how long ago would you have run away from home?) The latest arrangement aimed at perpetuating this unhappy marriage is now emerging from the therapist’s couch in Brussels, where most of Europe’s member states were on Friday preparing to pledge that their finances should be tied together collectively in the name of fiscal discipline. Only one nation was holding out: Great Britain. This deal, if it happens, sounds like a big one. It’s certainly a major step toward the sort of integration that Europe structurally requires to instill faith in its common currency, the Euro (a marriage agreed to hastily, in the presence of a hired Vegas pastor, without a prenuptial agreement or consideration of the consequences). Except that no one familiar with the inner workings of this dysfunctional family of nations has any reason to believe that this pledge of fiscal fidelity will survive any better than so many other past declarations of faith. What will come of this pledge, however, is a general reinforcement of the fiscal austerity that has become a leading source of strife under much of the European roof. For the moment, the market appears pleased that another deal is emerging to stave off the ugly, tabloid-fare divorce it has been fearing — an abrupt dissolution of the Euro, with all the potential financial havoc. But the pattern here is already clear, and it is not comforting: Next comes the market’s slower realization that Europe has no fuel for growth, which means more joblessness and bank losses and unhappy citizens taking to the streets to decry the slicing away of subsidies and public spending; and all of this resulting from the fiscal discipline Europe has embraced as the key to strengthening its marriage. It’s as if a couple, exhausted by years of bickering and distrust, has decided that the key to fixing its troubled marriage is to promise to never go to the movies again, forgo presents and dessert, and ditch cuddling as a timesuck that distracts from standing on the street selling the wedding presents. But what about the children? Back when a deal might have still been struck that could have allowed the European Central Bank to function as lender of last resort, standing at the ready to assist Italy and Spain, along with Greece, it made all the sense in the world to strengthen the currency union and tighten the strictures that govern what member nations can do with their budgets. If the central bank is to print Euros to lower borrowing costs and alleviate worries of sovereign default, then, yes, it seems perfectly reasonable that rules ought to govern how big the budget deficits can be, with a central arbiter in Brussels keeping the books in order. But the Germans — who like central bank intervention about as much as the Dutch like Germans — keep making it clear that this will not happen, not so long as Berlin is the largest guarantor of the funds. And this German unwillingness to arm the central bank to attack the crisis has become a leading source of fear in the global marketplace; fear that Europe will never solve its problems. This is why borrowing costs have been rising across the continent. This is why ratings agencies are downgrading sovereign debt , which exacerbates the borrowing costs. There is no love and trust in this marriage, only talk of regimented rules. Market confidence rests on faith that someone really will step in when push comes to shove. All the markets hear now is lectures from Germany about fiscal prudence. This week, the new central bank chief, Mario Draghi, confirmed that his institution cannot be counted on to rescue the ailing and dismissed talk of selling bonds backed by the credit of member states. Each deal to emerge from each summit has led only to another realization that yet another, bigger deal is yet required. Each failure to bolster confidence simply reinforces the reality that the nations in this marriage don’t like each other and will be here again, pointing fingers. This makes the market nervous. The market is the guy walking by the house, wondering if he wants to buy the vacant place next door, and not liking the sound of shouting and breaking glass. The children, as it were, might find more rewarding futures on their own. If Greece were to leave the structures of the Euro, it could devalue its own currency, making itself more attractive as a tourist destination. Italy could do the same, instantly boosting the competitiveness of its globally beloved products. Spain and Ireland would derive the benefits of lower-valued currencies, removing the straitjacket on their growth that has made high unemployment an entrenched feature of life. To which you may rightly say, enough with the metaphor. Europe isn’t a marriage. It’s the world’s largest marketplace, and its finances are intimately tied up in the rest of the global economy. An unruly end to its currency union could wind up being a Lehman Brothers-like event on many shores, sending money on a panicked retreat out of anything that looks even a smidgen risky. That could hurt small businesses in the United States, prompting fresh layoffs and unleashing another wave of anxiety and uncertainty. All valid fears, but the problem is that a lot of these things are already happening, spilling over into other countries. We may be experiencing a Lehman-like event in slow motion. All eyes turn to the slowdown in China, where the great export machine no longer looks indomitable, in part because of weakening orders from Europe. Small businesses in the United States are already complaining of difficulty getting their hands on money, and part of the reason is the nervousness of major banks to lend, so long as the great uncertainty of the Euro and its potential dissolution persists. The end of the Euro poses serious consequences, make no doubt about that. But maintaining the Euro without the necessary political agreement is a status quo that also has serious consequences. Getting to something better requires a spirit of unity that is lacking among the participants — not because the partners aren’t trying, but because they have irreconcilable differences. In Germany, fiscal discipline and fear of inflation are like a national religion. In Italy, Greece and Spain, fiscal discipline is destroying any hope for the future. Let’s call the whole thing off. Europe has become a codependent relationship, staying together for the sake of children, who are increasingly screwed up as a result of being reared by parents who are always storming away from the dinner table before the nourishment is complete. Peace reigns at the moment, but it’s hard to believe it will last, because it never does. Breaking up is hard to do, but it may very well be inevitable. If that’s the case, better to do it earlier, while everyone can still get on with their lives.

Read the full article →

A CNBC Mention, Positive Or Negative, Causes Stock Prices To Rise

December 5, 2011

For most companies, just getting mentioned on CNBC is enough to send stock prices rising — and it doesn’t seem to matter if the news is good or bad. A recent study from a Ph.D. candidate at UC Berkeley shows that a company’s stock price is likely to climb if that company is named on the business network CNBC. And it doesn’t have to be in the context of a compliment: Prices show a tendency to rise even if CNBC is reporting something negative about the company. The findings may strengthen the suspicions of anyone who believes that media coverage has a distorting influence on the market. And they may be cause for exasperation for anyone trying to decode the movements of stock prices — a game that has lately become harder to play , with rampant economic uncertainty leading markets to show as much volatility in 2011 as in any year in recent memory. Reza Shabani, the author of the paper, offers a few different theories for why bad press on CNBC might result in a price bounce for a company’s stock. When a company is mentioned on CNBC, Shabani says, it reminds investors that the company exists. Some investors might decide they want to own stock in that company, and thus buy it, while others might decide they no longer want to own stock in that company, and sell it. The key point, according to Shabani, is that any investor can buy stock in the company, while only those who already own the stock can sell it. Therefore, the net effect tends to be a buy-in for the stock and a rise in share prices. Shabani’s paper isn’t the first time CNBC has been linked with significant market movements. Critics have long accused the network of amplifying and accelerating trends in the market . In 2001, the financial columnist James Surowiecki wrote in The New Yorker that CNBC ” distorts the way the market works and helps turn what should be a diverse, independent-thinking crowd of investors into a herd acting upon a single collective thought .” And years later, Daily Show host Jon Stewart charged CNBC with fostering an atmosphere of irresponsible exuberance that hastened the financial crisis. But CNBC isn’t the only media outlet thought to wield an outsize influence on the markets it covers. Indeed, research suggests that any financial journalist can cause investors to hear the news a certain way through something as simple as her choice of metaphors .

Read the full article →

China Concerned U.S. Ruling Underscores ‘Inclination To Trade Protectionism’

December 4, 2011

SHANGHAI – China said it was “deeply concerned” about a preliminary ruling by a U.S. trade body that trade practices by Chinese solar makers are hurting U.S. producers and said the decision underscored a U.S. “inclination to trade protectionism.” Such protectionism measures would hurt bilateral trade and jeopardize mutual cooperation on new energy issues, the Commerce Ministry said in a statement on its website. The statement came after the U.S. International Trade Commission approved an investigation into charges of unfair Chinese trade practices in the solar energy sector, setting the stage for possible steep U.S. duties and ratcheting up tensions with Beijing on the green trade front. The U.S. commission voted 6-0 that there was a reasonable indication that SolarWorld Industries America and other U.S. producers had been harmed by the imports or could have been. “The ruling was made without sufficient evidence showing U.S. solar panel industry has been harmed and ignored defenses from Chinese firms as well as opposition from the U.S. domestic industries and other stakeholders,” the ministry said. “China is deeply concerned with the decision, which does not tally with facts and highlights the United States’ strong tendency for trade protectionism.” China also hit back by saying that the U.S. should “objectively analyze why some of its solar panel firms lack competitiveness.” The vote allows the Commerce Department to continue an investigation that could lead to both countervailing and anti-dumping duties on solar cells and panels from China. The dispute is one of several to have broken out on the environmental front, as governments seek to reduce dependence on carbon-emitting fossil fuels blamed for global climate change. Chinese solar manufacturers most affected by the petition include Suntech Power Holdings, Yingli Green Energy Holding and Trina Solar. U.S. imports of the solar products from China totaled $1.5 billion in 2010, up from $640 million in 2009. (Reporting by Fayen Wong and Samuel Shen; Editing by Nick Macfie) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

Read the full article →

EU Leaders Seek Agreement On Rescue Plan With Euro’s Future At Stake

December 4, 2011

PARIS (Paul Taylor) – The euro faces a decisive week as European Union leaders, urged on anxiously by the United States, seek agreement on a convincing rescue plan that has eluded them for two years. Despite short-term market optimism about a possible deal to tackle Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and underpin the survival of the single currency, the outcome is far from certain as the EU gears up for a summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. “This week, the stable future of the euro and thus the economic recovery in Europe and employment are at stake,” EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn told Reuters. “This calls for a convincing package of measures from the European Council (summit).” Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho went further. “We have to find a response” to the crisis, he told the daily Publico. “If we don’t, clearly that could represent the end of the European Union.” If all goes according to plans being hatched in Berlin and Paris, the EU will have taken a step towards fiscal union by Friday night, agreeing on a treaty change to anchor coercive budget discipline for the 17-nation currency area. The European Central Bank will have cut interest rates on Thursday to counter a looming recession and taken new measures to provide longer-term funding for Europe’s teetering banks. And new prime ministers in Italy, Greece and Spain will have demonstrated their commitment to tough austerity measures and structural economic reforms to tackle their debt problems and restore investor confidence. World financial markets rallied last week on the prospect of such a masterplan after ECB chief Mario Draghi signalled that in response to a new “fiscal compact” in the euro zone, the central bank could act more decisively to fight the crisis. A convincing show of political determination to stand behind the euro and surmount the crisis through closer euro zone integration could prompt the ECB to do more to support Italian and Spanish bonds, cementing that reversal of market sentiment. “It all comes down to what the ECB does, and whether political leaders produce a sufficiently convincing plan to give the ECB a basis to intervene,” a senior EU government source said, speaking on condition of anonymity to respect the independence of the central bank. However, if the 27-nation EU is unable to agree, or settles for another half-measure after months of dithering, the flight from euro zone bond markets may accelerate, confidence may ebb further and the crisis could become acute in January, when Italy has to start a massive refinancing campaign. The chief executives of leading Dutch multinationals published a joint newspaper ad warning it was now “one minute to midnight” for the euro zone. “There is almost 1,000 billion euros in refinancing that needs to be done next year, while the risk premium on interest rates is increasing strongly. That means that it will be almost impossible for many countries to refinance. That indicates how urgent it is to take measures now,” Frans van Houten, CEO of electronics giant Philips told TV programme Buitenhof. MERKEL PERMISSIVE? Underlining Washington’s vital interest in averting a euro zone meltdown, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will visit Frankfurt, Berlin, Paris, Marseille and Milan from Tuesday — his fourth trip to Europe since early September — to urge key European officials to take decisive action. Sources close to German Chancellor Angela Merkel say she is prepared, despite hostility from the German Bundesbank, to see the ECB step up buying of troubled states’ bonds as a short-term bridging measure until stricter budget controls take hold. But things may not go entirely according to plan. Merkel visits French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Paris on Monday to outline joint proposals on economic governance, but Berlin and Paris still have significant differences about how the euro zone would control national budgets. Merkel wants to empower the executive European Commission to veto national budget plans that breach EU limits before they go to parliament, with automatic sanctions for deficit sinners and the possibility to take serial offenders to the European Court of Justice for punishment. Sarkozy, struggling to win re-election next May, wants euro zone leaders to have the final say, with no new supranational powers for EU institutions. Several other governments, notably Britain, Ireland and the Netherlands, do not want treaty change at all because of the domestic political risks. Some fear it would be hard if they have to win public backing in referendums. European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, who chairs the crucial end-of-week summit in Brussels, will present options for stricter budget control without touching the treaty, as well as steps that would require amendments, aides said. European Parliament President Jerzy Buzek warned last Friday that treaty change could be divisive and “dangerous.” But diplomats say it is a political must for Merkel. Veteran former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt, 92, urged Germans on Sunday to soothe growing fears of German dominance in Europe and help rescue debt-stricken euro zone partners, warning that Berlin faced isolation otherwise. For British Prime Minister David Cameron, the choice is between enraging eurosceptics at home by letting treaty change go ahead without winning a return of key powers to London, or seeing the 17 euro zone states reach a separate agreement outside the treaty that could cement a two-speed Europe. SHORT-CIRCUIT Germany and France want to short-circuit the complex treaty amendment procedure by wrapping the new budget procedures into a single amended protocol 14 on the euro zone. They hope to avoid a parliamentary convention and spare most, if not all, countries the need for a referendum on ratification. That has outraged some lawmakers who say the EU’s major powers are sidelining national parliamentary budget sovereignty without any democratic accountability. In their defence, Paris and Berlin argue the debt crisis is an emergency that requires swift executive action to avert disaster, and that member states already signed up to the budget rules in the 1992 Maastricht Treaty. New Prime Minister Mario Monti brought forward to Sunday a cabinet meeting to approve rigorous austerity measures and economic reforms designed to save Rome from requiring the next international bailout. And bailed-out Ireland will be presenting an eye-watering 2012 austerity budget. Italy has become the centre of the debt crisis since yields on its 10-year bonds shot up above 7 percent, levels at which Greece, Ireland and Portugal were forced to seek EU/IMF help. Government sources say Monti’s mix of cuts and tax rises will total some 20 billion euros ($27 billion) over two years. About half will go to reduce the deficit and balance the budget by 2013 despite an economic downturn and rising borrowing costs. The rest will free up resources to try to regenerate Italy’s recession-bound economy. On Tuesday, the Greek parliament is due to give final approval to a draconian 2012 austerity budget that is a condition for a second bailout package still under negotiation with private creditors, euro zone governments and the IMF. On Wednesday and Thursday, centre-right leaders who control most EU governments meet in Marseille, France. That will provide the platform for incoming Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to outline his commitment to radical budget cuts and economic reforms to restore Madrid’s parlous public finances. It will also give “Merkozy” — as the Franco-German leadership team has become known — a last chance to lobby reticent partners, with Geithner in the wings, to accept treaty change as a crucial part of the long-term plan to secure the euro before the summit starts with a dinner on Thursday evening. (Additional reporting by Madeline Chambers and Andreas Rinke in Berlin, Catherine Hornby in Rome and Gilbert Kreijger in the Netherlands; Writing by Paul Taylor, Editing by Mark Trevelyan) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

Read the full article →

Crisis In Europe Threatens Retirement Funds

December 3, 2011

As Europe teeters on the edge and the eurozone faces the possibility of a breakup, Americans readying themselves for retirement may need to shield their savings from a volatile stock market. The crisis in Europe is weighing on U.S. stocks, with the domestic stock market having plummeted 8.7 percent since its peak in late April. Many economists have predicted that a breakup of the eurozone would potentially plunge the U.S. into another recession. Considering that destructive potential, older Americans ought to avoid stocks and focus on safer investments such as government and corporate bonds, while people further from retirement should stay the course, experts say. While people nearing retirement usually tend to hold a larger proportion of their portfolios in bonds than stocks, some investment managers and advisers said that they should allocate an even larger proportion of their retirement funds in bonds than usual because of the crisis in Europe. “If you’re older than your typical retiree, then by all means put more of it in higher-quality bonds, because this eurozone issue is not resolved,” said Anthony Valeri, a markets strategist for fixed income with LPL Financial. Valeri recommended that people at retirement age prepare a portfolio of 80 to 90 percent high-quality U.S. bonds and just 10 to 20 percent stocks. “Some positive return [on bonds] is certainly going to help, even if it’s low.” A recession in Europe would likely bruise numerous U.S. stocks, especially bank stocks, Valeri said. If the eurozone broke up, retirement fund investments in stocks could decline 17 percent in value, while high-quality bonds probably would rise 5 to 10 percent in value, he said. Valeri added that investors who are more than five years away from retirement should keep investing in what he said are currently undervalued stocks, since they still have good long-term outlooks. Retirement plans are already taking a hit. The average Fidelity Investments retirement plan declined 12 percent in value in the third quarter of this year, putting investors behind where they stood a year ago. Few safe havens would exist in the event of a eurozone breakup, said Clark Yingst, chief market analyst for the investment firm Joseph Gunnar. He said that if a eurozone breakup looks increasingly likely, people near retirement should buy long-term U.S. government bonds, dollars and gold. If the eurozone enters a deflationary spiral of more expensive goods and lower consumer spending, a normal retirement fund would lose as much as 20 to 30 percent of its value, said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist for Rockwell Global Capital. Cardillo emphasized that since the stock market has already fallen in response to the likelihood of a recession in Europe, a recession that avoids a eurozone breakup would not hurt retirement funds a great deal. A recession in Europe would, however, damage U.S. companies by reducing European consumer demand for American goods, weakening export-driven economies in Asia and Latin America that help support U.S. economic growth, and drawing value out of U.S. stocks, since 14 percent of all S&P 500 stock sales come from Europe, said Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P. U.S. stock values would plummet as the economic outlook in Europe darkens, he said. Some large U.S. companies have a major presence in Europe, according to Silverblatt. For example, 39.8 percent of McDonald’s sales are in Europe, as well as 25.2 percent of Johnson & Johnson’s sales, 32 percent of the sales at health care companies Becton Dickinson and Baxter International, and 17 percent of Disney’s sales, he said. A eurozone breakup could pull down the price of many of these European stocks. “It would take a huge chunk out of everything,” Silverblatt said of a eurozone breakup. Christopher Philips, senior analyst at the investment management company Vanguard, said that because of the crisis in Europe, this would be a good time for people to reconsider their overall allocation of investments between stocks and safer bonds. While the U.S. bond market consistently rose between 5 and 7 percent per year in 2007, 2008 and 2009, according to Philips, the stock market was more volatile. The S&P 500 plummeted 41 percent in 2008 and spiked 28 percent in 2009. If people want steadier income from their retirement funds, they should consider investing more in high-quality U.S. bonds, he said. But people who are still far from retirement should keep investing their retirement funds in the stock market, since stocks give retirees the best chance to maintain their long-term purchasing power in spite of inflation, some investment managers said. Stuart Ritter, vice president and financial planner at T. Rowe Price, noted that the return for investors in the S&P 500 between 1995 and 2010 — during the technology boom and bust, housing bubble, and recent financial crisis — was an average of 7 percent per year, outpacing inflation. Philips noted that declines in the stock market sometimes precede recessions, rather than occur at the same time, so it would not be a good idea to divest from retirement funds based on the stock market and economic climate. Instead, it would be best to invest a consistent 12 to 15 percent of income in one’s retirement fund, he said. “Trying to time those markets can do more harm than good,” Philips said. “One investor can end up on the wrong side of the investment if it doesn’t work out.”

Read the full article →

Honda Recalls 304,000 Vehicles For Air-Bag Problem

December 2, 2011

TOKYO — Honda Motor Co. is recalling 304,000 vehicles globally for air-bags that may inflate with too much pressure in a crash, send metal and plastic pieces flying and cause injuries or deaths. Honda said there have been 20 accidents so far related to this problem, including two deaths in the U.S. in 2009. The Japanese automaker announced the recall Friday, which affects the Accord, Civic, Odyssey, Pilot, CR-V and other models, manufactured in 2001 and 2002. The recall spans 273,000 vehicles in the U.S., some 27,000 in Canada, nearly 2,000 vehicles in Japan and another 2,000 in other countries. The latest recall is an expansion of recalls for the same problem in 2008, and again carried out in 2009, as well as last year. The recall now covers about 2 million vehicles worldwide, according to Tokyo-based Honda. Honda spokesman Hajime Kaneko said the cause was the use of incorrect material in the chemical used to deploy air bags. But that problem was found later to affect more vehicles than initially estimated, and the recall had to be expanded, he said. Honda is expecting no more recalls linked to this problem, he said. Also included in the latest recall are 912 air-bag service parts sold for installation in vehicles for collision repair and other reasons, Honda said. ___ Follow Yuri Kageyama on Twitter at http://twitter.com/yurikageyama

Read the full article →

Crisis In Europe Threatens World Economy

November 28, 2011

As a breakup of the eurozone — a once seemingly impossible scenario — becomes increasingly likely, economists are starting to sketch out what a post-euro world would look like. Many are warning that if political leaders don’t change course, a breakup of the eurozone would plunge the United States and the rest of the world into a slowdown and possibly another recession. “If Europe turns out badly, it’s much more likely we’ll go into recession,” said Michael Spence, a Nobel Prize-winning economist at the New York University Stern School of Business. “If you take a big chunk like Europe and turn it down, it would probably bring everybody else down, including us.” If the eurozone dissolves, the European banking system would likely collapse, economists said, plunging the continent into recession, which would keep European consumers from buying. Decreased demand from the continent, which represents about 20 percent of the global economy, would hurt both the United States and emerging countries, who depend on European banks not just for demand, but also for funding. The risk of a eurozone breakup has increased dramatically over the past couple of weeks, as countries have faced increasing difficulty selling their debt. Interest rates on sovereign bonds issued by eurozone countries have spiked. The interest rate on 10-year Italian sovereign bonds rose to 7.28 percent Monday, nearly hitting a Nov. 9 euro-era high that was only eased afterward by limited bond purchases by the European Central Bank. The interest rate on 10-year Spanish sovereign bonds rose to 6.58 percent Monday, near the euro-era high reached on Nov. 17 . Interest rates on the 10-year bonds of more fiscally sound countries, such as France and Belgium, spiked to 3.58 percent and 5.59 percent respectively on Monday, as the contagion of higher borrowing costs spread to across the eurozone, regardless of their economic fundamentals. If European leaders don’t agree to take bold economic measures for more fiscal integration — including allowing the European Central Bank to become the lender of last resort — the eurozone could start to unravel, said Simon Tilford, chief economist of the Center for European Reform in London. The eurozone’s future could be decided next week when leaders meet for a summit on the sovereign debt crisis on December 9. If they leave empty-handed, Tilford said, fearful depositors could pull their money out of European banks en masse, causing European banks to fail. In a “vicious death spiral,” said Tilford, troubled European countries would stop being able to borrow money as borrowing costs reach unsustainable levels. Then a string of European countries could default and leave the eurozone, leading to its collapse, he said. A number of other triggers could force a eurozone break up. In one scenario described by economists, a troubled eurozone country such as Italy could be forced to default if it is not able to roll over all of its debt at its next bond auction, forcing the country to leave the eurozone soon thereafter. In another possibility, interest rates on sovereign debt could reach unsustainable levels, forcing troubled countries to default on their debts. In addition, the Greek people could pressure their political leaders to leave the eurozone in order to regain political sovereignty from European leaders in France and Germany. “Given that Greece is a democracy, at some point I think the Greek people are going to decide this is not the right way to go,” said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial, who said that there is a 40 percent chance of a complete breakup of the eurozone. “It’s a nasty recession to begin with, and they [political leaders] are talking about making it even worse.” Leaving the euro would give Greece a chance to grow its way out of its current predicament, similar to the way that Argentina’s economy grew after abandoning its currency’s peg to the U.S. dollar in the 1990s, Low said. With cheaper exports under a devalued currency, Greece would be able to sell more of its goods and services abroad, he said. But abandoning the euro would not be without its troubles. If Greece left the euro, its banking sector would likely collapse, and Greek companies that borrowed from other eurozone countries would likely default since the debt — valued in euros — would become too expensive to pay off, said Jurgen Odenius, the chief economist at Prudential Fixed Income. The Greek government would also be forced to slash spending to the point where there would be no more deficit, Odenius said, and would likely have trouble seeking outside loans, pushing Greece into a much deeper recession. “This would make for a nuclear meltdown, as far as Greece is concerned,” Odenius said. But for some countries, leaving the euro may be unavoidable, some economists said. Devaluing their own currencies would boost the competitiveness of their exports, allowing countries to grow and pay down their debts, Tilford said. Since countries such as Greece and Portugal have “very weak economic growth prospects … they need a weaker currency,” Tilford said. If they can no longer borrow money, they effectively would be forced to default on their debts and leave the euro, he said. A breakup of the eurozone would cause several negative repercussions for the U.S. economy and emerging economies in particular, Tilford said. As investors flee for safety in the United States, the value of the U.S. dollar would rise, making U.S. exports more expensive around the world and causing their sales to fall, he said. American banks would be forced to swallow major losses on European investments and would lend less, he said — though the Federal Reserve would likely prevent them from failing by becoming their lender of last resort. American investments in Europe generally would plunge in value, Tilford said. As of the end of 2009, U.S. direct investment in Europe totaled $1.98 trillion , according to the Congressional Research Service. The negative blow to U.S. confidence would generally curtail risk-taking and investments in the U.S., Tilford said. Emerging economies would also experience a sharp slowdown because they are dependent on Europe for both financing and consumer demand for their goods, Tilford said. European banks provide about three-quarters of all loans to emerging markets, according to Tilford, and a breakup of the eurozone would cause many European banks to either fail or slash lending. If the eurozone breaks up, a cloud of uncertainty would likely hang over Europe as long as companies struggle to work out contracts that were done in euros, Tilford said. “How on earth do you untangle all the contracts? Because they are all in a currency that would cease to exist,” he said. “They would need to clarify who owns what and under what currency if capital is going to return to Europe.”

Read the full article →

OECD: Policy Makers Should Be Prepared To ‘Face The Worst’ From Debt Crisis

November 28, 2011

PARIS — The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Monday policy makers around the world must “be prepared to face the worst,” as the economic impact of Europe’s debt crisis threatens to spread around the developed world. The Paris-based OECD said in its latest Economic Outlook that continued failure by EU leaders to stem the debt crisis that has spread from Greece to much-bigger Italy “could massively escalate economic disruption” and end in “highly devastating outcomes.” The half-yearly update also recommended urgently boosting the EU bailout fund and called on Europe’s central bank to do more to stem the crisis. “The ECB has the means to provide a credible measure to avoid further contagion in the sovereign bond markets,” the OECD’s chief economist Carlo Padoan said. “And if you ask me if that is the lender of last resort function, I would say yes.” Many think the ECB is the only institution capable of calming frayed market nerves and Merkel’s continued dismissal of a greater ECB role knocked market sentiment and stocks all round Europe fell again after a morning rebound. Potentially, the ECB has unlimited financial firepower through its ability to print money. However, Germany finds the idea of monetizing debts unappealing, warning that it lets the more profligate countries off the hook for their bad practices. In addition, it conjures up bad memories of hyperinflation in Germany in the 1920s. Padoan also upped the pressure on Europe to implement the Greek debt restructuring agreed to by EU leaders in October, saying that further delay could render the plan “insufficient,” just as an earlier plan unveiled in July turned out to be. The OECD now forecasts the eurozone economy to be in a six-month recession lasting through the first quarter of 2012, followed by a slow recovery that will leave the 17-nation bloc with only 0.2 percent growth next year. Padoan warned however that a combination of factors including continued fiscal gridlock in the U.S. and a sovereign debt default or bank failure in Europe could result in a “downside scenario” that sees the eurozone shrink by 2 percent next year and even more in 2013. The OECD expects the U.S. to grow by 2 percent next year and 2.5 percent in 2013, while the Japanese economy is forecast to grow 2 percent next year and 1.6 percent in 2013. (This version CORRECTS title of Padoan in fourth paragraph.)

Read the full article →

Federal Judge: Credit Ratings Not Always Protected Under First Amendment

November 26, 2011

(Jonathan Stempel) – A federal judge has said credit ratings are not always protected opinion under the First Amendment, a defeat for credit rating agencies in a lawsuit brought by investors who lost money on mortgage-backed securities. The November 12 decision was a little-noticed setback for McGraw-Hill Cos’ Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Corp’s Moody’s Investors Service and Fimalac SA’s Fitch Ratings, which have long invoked First Amendment free speech protection to defend against lawsuits over their ratings. These agencies had argued that the Constitution protected them from claims they issued inflated ratings on more than $5 billion of securities issued in 2006 and 2007, and backed by loans from former Thornburg Mortgage Inc and other lenders. But the judge said the ratings were shared with too small a group of investors to deserve the broad protection sought. “The court rejects the rating agency defendants’ arguments that the First Amendment provides any protection to them under the facts of this case,” U.S. District Judge James Browning in Albuquerque, New Mexico, wrote in a 273-page opinion. Browning nonetheless dismissed claims accusing Moody’s and Fitch, but not S&P, of misrepresentations, saying the investors did not adequately allege that the two agencies did not believe their ratings, or knowingly concealed their inaccuracy. He also said federal law preempts some arguments that the investors used to recover under New Mexico securities law. The judge said the investors may file an amended complaint, which had sought class-action status. If the state law claims went forward, it could provide an avenue for investors to go after the agencies in other states. Browning had denied the agencies’ motion to dismiss the complaint on September 30, without giving reasons. S&P, in a statement, called the First Amendment ruling “inconsistent” with other court rulings. Fitch spokesman Daniel Noonan said that agency is pleased that claims against it were dismissed. Moody’s and lawyers for the investors declined to comment or had no immediate comment. Credit Suisse Group AG and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc are among the other defendants in the case. Rating agencies have been widely faulted by investors, regulators and Congress for contributing to the global credit and financial crises that began in 2007 by issuing high ratings on debt that did not deserve it. Thornburg made “jumbo” home loans, larger than $417,000, to borrowers considered good credit risks, but collapsed after margin calls and a plunge in the value of mortgages it held. The Santa Fe, New Mexico-based lender filed for bankruptcy on May 1, 2009, and is now called TMST Inc. LIMITED DISTRIBUTION Investors led by two pension funds, the Maryland-National Capital Park & Planning Commission Employees’ Retirement System, and the Midwest Operating Engineers Pension Trust Fund in Illinois, claimed the agencies issued false and misleading investment-grade ratings for Thornburg securities, and were paid “substantial” sums that compromised their independence. But Browning said the ratings were distributed only to a “limited group” of investors, not the public at large. He also said that unlike publicly traded companies, the trusts from which the securities were issued were not “public figures” entitled to more protections. “The court rejects the rating agency defendants’ argument that the First Amendment protections regarding provably false opinions apply to their credit ratings,” Browning wrote. Rating agencies have largely been successful in raising the First Amendment defense. For example, in September, a federal judge threw out a lawsuit by then-Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray on behalf of pension funds, and said ratings were “predictive opinions.” In contrast, a Manhattan federal judge, in a 2009 ruling involving Morgan Stanley, said the defense does not apply when ratings were provided to a “select group of investors” in a private placement. S&P has asked the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission not to file threatened civil charges over its ratings for a 2007 offering, Delphinus CDO 2007-1. The case is Genesee County Employees’ Retirement System et al v. Thornburg Mortgage Securities Trust 2006-3 et al, U.S. District Court, District of New Mexico, No. 09-00300. (Reporting by Jonathan Stempel in New York; Editing by Tim Dobbyn) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

Read the full article →

Stock Market Plunges On German Debt Concerns

November 23, 2011

The eurozone will face a vote of confidence on Monday by the U.S. stock market. Heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, the U.S. stock market plunged after Germany, Europe’s largest — and arguably most secure — economy, found it surprisingly difficult to sell its government bonds or sovereign debt Wednesday. It’s a sign that private investors are fleeing Europe and exacerbating the sovereign debt crisis there. With the stock market closed Thursday and open for just a half a day on Friday, it likely won’t be clear until Monday if the crisis is starting to spread to the United States. U.S. stocks may plunge on Monday if the situation in Europe deteriorates, some economists said. “The markets are exaggerating the situation,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital in New York. “But by the same token, they’re sending a message, and that strikes a cautious note.” By avoiding Germany’s sovereign bond auction, private investors signaled that they have lost patience with European leaders and confidence that the eurozone will be able to avoid a breakup and a deep recession. The impact of investors’ skittishness is growing. If they don’t buy government bonds, interest rates on European sovereign debt spike , making it harder for countries to finance their debt pushing them closer to default. In other words, investors fearing the worst could actually be making their fears come true. The German central bank was forced to buy 39 percent of the 10-year sovereign bonds that Germany issued today, in a clear rebuke by private investors. The U.S. stock market plunged in response, as the S&P 500 fell 2.21 percent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 236 points to 11,257.55. European stocks also took a beating. The DAX index in Germany fell 1.44 percent and the CAC 40 in France fell 1.68 percent, and the value of the euro fell one percent against the dollar. “This auction was disastrous for Germany, and one can easily conclude that this is one of the first concrete signs that the eurozone is in the process of breaking up, that investors have just about given up,” Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group, said. Germany almost set itself up for an unsuccessful bond auction though, said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wells Fargo Securities. He noted that the interest rate that Germany was offering on its new 10-year bonds — just 2 percent — was lower than the 2.25 percent interest rate offered last month and 3.25 percent interest rate during the summer. The lower returns simply were not as appealing, Bryson said. If Germany, Europe’s safe haven, can’t sell off its debt to private investors, then more troubled countries such as Italy and Spain may find it difficult to avoid insolvency. And if those countries default, it could spell the end for the euro. Investors are at this point afraid of nearly all European bonds. Interest rates on French and Austrian sovereign debt are approaching four percent, indicating that investors are increasingly eager to sell any European sovereign debt, no matter how well the country’s fiscal house has been put in order nor how strong the economy is. Bryson noted that European banks also have been less willing to lend to large corporations in a sign that credit is tightening. “The markets seem to think that euro is on the edge, ready to fall off the cliff,” Cardillo said. “The message is loud and clear that the markets are basically going to force the Germans to compromise.” Germany, the most powerful country in the eurozone, has largely stood in the way of a rescue by the European Central Bank. The president of Germany’s influential central bank recently said that the ECB must not violate its charter, which prevents it from buying sovereign debt directly from European governments. But if the markets continue to inflict harm on Germany as well as the rest of the eurozone, Cardillo said, Germany eventually may relent and allow the ECB to buy large amounts of sovereign debt and issue euro bonds, driving down borrowing costs and ending the short-term crisis.

Read the full article →

IMF Playing Larger Role In Addressing Europe Debt Crisis

November 20, 2011

WASHINGTON (Lesley Wroughton) – The International Monetary Fund is inserting itself more forcefully into Europe’s efforts to resolve its debt crisis, hoping to stem a contagion that is spreading worldwide and threatening global growth. Uncertainty is turning into frustration and near-panic among policymakers outside Europe as larger European economies such as Italy, Spain and France come under attack by financial markets and bank funding stresses worsen. Until now, Europe has tried to navigate its way out of the two-year crisis on its own and the IMF has worked as a partner in a rescue “Troika” alongside the European Commission and European Central Bank in bailing out debt-stricken Greece. But patience, both among officials outside of Europe and in markets, is running thin with what many view as Europe’s painfully slow decision-making process. Three steps taken this week could strengthen the IMF’s role in handling the crisis. The IMF said on Thursday it would not be joined by EU or ECB officials when it conducts an in-depth review in late November of Italy’s economy and the fiscal and structural reforms needed to fend off the crisis there, a fresh step in the global lender’s approach. By going it alone, the IMF would assert its leadership role and potentially instill greater market confidence. This followed a surprise move on Wednesday when the IMF ousted Antonio Borges, its European director. It replaced him with an influential insider, Reza Moghadam, who has worked behind the scenes to reshape the IMF’s lending tools and strengthen the way it monitors economies. Borges cited personal reasons for his decision to step down immediately. Last month, he misstepped in suggesting publicly that the IMF could buy Spanish or Italian bonds alongside the euro zone’s bailout fund. He had to issue a hasty retraction to say the IMF could only lend to member countries and could not intervene in bond markets. European officials also said on Thursday there have been discussions about the European Central Bank possibly lending to the IMF, which would give the global lender enough money to bail out bigger euro zone countries. Emerging market countries such as China, Russia and Brazil have indicated privately to IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde they stand ready to help Europe, as well as other countries, but only if their funding is done through the IMF. “There is great concern about Europe,” IMF Spokesman David Hawley told a news briefing on Thursday that was dominated by questions on Italy and Greece. “Emerging market countries have expressed readiness to augment the resources of the Fund,” Hawley said. “At this stage we don’t have precise money”. The Federal Reserve, likewise, is extremely worried about Europe and does not see how the U.S. banking system can escape unscathed. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has warned that inadequate European crisis management raises the risk of “cascading default, bank runs and catastrophic risk that must be taken off the table.” European leaders had hoped they would stem the contagion by setting up a bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility. But more than three months later, it has failed to raise the 1 trillion euros it needs, and financial contagion is spreading quickly from the euro zone’s periphery to eastern and central Europe and to other vulnerable emerging countries. If Italy and Spain need rescuing, the 1 trillion euros European leaders are seeking would not be enough. The only lender left with sufficient firepower would be the IMF. Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

Read the full article →

Borrowing Costs For Spain Rise, As European Crisis Grows

November 18, 2011

As the eurozone crisis drags on, calls are growing louder for a big bailout from the European Central Bank. Yet the fate of the euro — and possibly the global economy — also hinges on the ability of Spanish and Italian leaders to seize the moment and whip their economies into shape. Italy hit the rails last week when its borrowing costs reached unsustainable levels. The European Central Bank swept in and bought some of the country’s debt, bringing down interest rates — for the moment. The same thing happened to Spain on Thursday when its borrowing costs rose to a record high, falling only after the ECB bought some Spanish sovereign debt . These rescues are just quick fixes, however. Many economists are calling for two drastic measures: First, allow the ECB to buy trillions of dollars in troubled sovereign debt to drive down borrowing costs and calm the markets. Longer-term, Spain and Italy must implement credible structural economic reforms that will allow troubled European economies to grow their way out of crisis. Like the U.S., these countries need to create jobs, fix housing problems and reduce their deficits. “At the end of the day, you’ve got to get them growing again,” said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wells Fargo Securities. “The ECB can get you a backstop, but it’s not a permanent solution.” The 10-year interest rate on Spanish sovereign debt spiked to a record 6.975 percent on Thursday — a rate many economists view as unsustainable — before the ECB’s actions eased it down to 6.42 percent on Friday. “When the ECB’s buying the debt, that means nobody wants it,” said Lance Roberts, chief strategist at Streettalk Advisors. Spain was one of the last European economies to pull itself out of the most recent recession because of a particularly harsh housing boom and bust. Now the country appears to be heading back into recession. IHS Global Insight forecasts that the Spanish economy will shrink for the next six months and that the unemployment rate will stay elevated at 21 percent into 2012: the highest unemployment rate in the eurozone . Spain is reportedly likely to vote for conservative leader Mariano Rajoy for prime minister in general elections on Sunday, replacing the current socialist government. Since Rajoy doesn’t have ties to unions, he is more likely than the current administration to push through labor market reforms, said Raj Badiani, senior economist at IHS Global Insight. Badiani and others say that Spain needs to make it easier to fire workers on full-time contracts, encouraging companies to hire more workers full-time rather than on a temporary basis. This creates an incentive for companies to train workers, Badiani said, and would theoretically boost productivity. Plus, banks would be more likely to give mortgages to full-time contracted workers — a lift for the still-ailing Spanish housing market. Italy needs to make similar changes to its workforce, several economists said. Mario Monti, a technocrat, was appointed Italy’s prime minister on Wednesday after the resignation of longtime Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who had lost the political capital needed to implement serious reform. Both Rajoy and Monti have a window of opportunity available to implement real change, but they need to use their popularity swiftly to accomplish it, Bryson said. “President Obama was pretty popular too. Over time, when you start to put policies into place and people start to feel pain and get hurt, your popularity starts to go down.” If the ECB and Spanish and Italian governments do not act, Bryson said, the countries may eventually default on their debts and kick off a spiral of pain: They’d leave the eurozone, he said, likely causing it to break up. That could spark major losses for European and American banks and make global borrowing costs spike. The result could be an immediate recession in the U.S. and Europe. Bart van Ark, chief economist at the Conference Board, agreed that it is essential for Spain and Italy to implement credible structural economic reforms to restore investor confidence. “It needs to be bold and radical enough so that the markets generally feel these countries are going to go on another trajectory,” van Ark said. “The political and economic damage of a [eurozone] breakup would be too large. Policymakers do realize these risks.” But he warned that he hadn’t seen much political courage in Europe yet. “Sometimes, even if everybody knows what the right decision is, it doesn’t mean those decisions are going to be taken.”

Read the full article →

U.S. Companies Feeling The Pain From European Crisis

November 13, 2011

NEW YORK — The tremors from Europe’s financial upheaval have reached U.S. shores, rattling consumers and companies. The consequences have been limited so far. Yet the United States and Europe are so closely linked that any slowdown across the Atlantic is felt here. U.S. makers of cars, solar panels, drugs, clothes and computer equipment have all reported effects from Europe’s turmoil. Worries that Europe’s crisis could worsen and spread are spooking investors and consumers just as the holiday shopping season nears. Some fear U.S. consumers could rein in spending. Europe’s sputtering growth is already dragging on some U.S. companies’ profits and could further slow the U.S. economy. The crisis “seems to be coming to a head right at the time the U.S. economy is at its most vulnerable,” said Mark Vitner, an economist at Wells Fargo. It’s affecting companies like Marlin Steel Wire Products, a 34-employee business based in Baltimore that’s been seeking a $4 million contract from a German manufacturer for an industrial steel wire project. Marlin’s CEO, Drew Greenblatt, says the German firm is in “pause mode” because of Europe’s turmoil. The German company had promised the order by early November. Marlin’s overall sales are growing briskly. But sales to Europe have been sinking. “If they were ordering like they customarily do, we would have hired more guys,” Greenblatt said. The European Union is the No. 1 U.S. trading partner. Nearly $475 billion in goods crossed between the regions in the first nine months of 2011. About 14 percent of revenue for the 500 biggest U.S. companies – roughly $1.3 trillion – comes from Europe. The U.S. economy is especially vulnerable to the European crisis because it’s growing so weakly and facing other risks, such as weak hiring, stagnant pay, high energy costs, a wide trade deficit and potentially steep government spending cuts. “It won’t take much to tip us into another recession,” said Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at California State University, Channel Islands. “If Europe gets into any deeper trouble, it will take us and the rest of the world down, too.” The European Union said last week that the region could slip into a “deep and prolonged recession” next year. The Eurozone is expected to grow just 0.5 percent in 2012. That’s far below the 1.8 percent growth predicted in the spring. Wells Fargo estimates that the U.S. economy will grow 2.1 percent next year, 0.4 percentage point lower because of Europe’s slowdown. Goldman Sachs thinks the region’s slowdown could shave a full percentage point off U.S. growth. Even if Europe doesn’t fall into a downturn, its turmoil is affecting U.S companies and consumers in several ways: _ Stock-market gyrations unsettle consumers and make them more cautious about spending. _ U.S. companies with big European operations are suffering from lower sales, prices and profits. _ Banks worldwide are cutting lending and hoarding cash to create more cushion for potentially deep losses on their holdings of Greek, Italian and other government debt. U.S. and overseas banks are keeping about $1.57 trillion in reserves at the Federal Reserve – a jump of nearly $580 billion in the past year. _ Uncertainty about how much damage Europe could cause is making corporations reluctant to spend their piles of cash to hire and invest. Not every U.S. company is hurting in Europe, of course. McDonald’s Corp., Kraft Foods Inc., Sara Lee Corp. and Oracle Corp. recently reported strong results there. But General Motors Co.’s third-quarter profit fell 15 percent, due mainly to slower sales and higher costs in Europe. “Things have clearly deteriorated,” GM Chief Financial Officer Dan Ammann told investors last week. Jeff Fettig, CEO of Whirlpool, said late last month that with demand tumbling in parts of Europe, the company plans to lay off 5,000 workers in North America and Europe. First Solar, based in Phoenix, is postponing plans to finish building a solar panel factory in Vietnam because of a worldwide glut in panels. The glut has been caused by falling demand in Europe, the world’s biggest solar market. Falling prices caused by the glut have sent share prices of established solar panel makers such as First Solar and SunPower tumbling. They’ve also forced some solar companies such as Solyndra into bankruptcy protection. Abercrombie & Fitch Co.’s struggles in Europe caused its share price to plummet. Nike Inc. said its last quarterly revenue rose in every region it operates in except Western Europe. Cisco expects growth in the area to slip about 5 percent during the next three months. “Europe, we think, is going to be a challenge for us for this next quarter,” Cisco CEO John Chambers told analysts Wednesday. Smaller businesses are being affected, too. Wine exports are suffering because of poor consumer sentiment in Europe and because a weak euro is making U.S. wine costlier by comparison. The European Union accounts for about 38 percent of U.S. wine industry exports. For banks, the crisis is different, and scarier. They hold debt of European governments and companies that could lose value if the crisis worsens. The big fear is that big U.S. and European banks would become so worried about each other’s ability to cover losses that they’d stop lending to each other. The result could be diminished confidence that would freeze lending and shock the global economy. Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told soldiers and their families in Texas that Europe posed a “significant risk” to the U.S. economy. Europe’s troubles have been weighing on U.S. stock markets for months. David Hensley, a global economist at JPMorgan Chase, noted that falling stock prices make consumers feel less wealthy and cause some to cut back on spending. That, in turn, slows U.S. growth. The unease is growing right as the holiday shopping season – which accounts for up to 40 percent of retailers’ annual sales – is about to start. “The retail industry is hyper-sensitive to any sort of national or international crisis that affects consumer confidence,” said Brian Dodge of the Retail Leaders Industry Association. “Consumers read the news.” ___ Rugaber reported from Washington, Liedtke from San Francisco. AP Business Writers Tom Krisher in Detroit, Sarah Skidmore in Portland, Ore., and Martin Crutsinger in Washington contributed to this report. Jonathan Fahey can be reached at . http://twitter.com/JonathanFahey

Read the full article →

EU Warns Europe May Fall Into ‘Deep And Prolonged Recession’

November 10, 2011

BRUSSELS — The European Union warned Thursday that the 17-country eurozone could slip into “a deep and prolonged recession” next year as the debt crisis shows alarming signs of spinning out of control. The EU’s economic watchdog, the European Commission, said its central forecast is that the eurozone will grow by only a paltry 0.5 percent in 2012. That’s way down on the 1.8 percent prediction it made in the spring. “This forecast is in fact the last wake-up call,” the EU’s Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn warned. “Growth has stalled in Europe, and there is a risk of a new recession.” The warning is the first acknowledgment of the possibility of a double-dip recession in Europe, a development that could hit the global economy hard. The Commission said “a deep and prolonged recession complemented by continued market turmoil cannot be excluded,” given the uncertainty over whether countries will implement spending cuts and reforms. The sharp cut in the forecast comes as the eurozone’s debt crisis has spread to Italy, the single currency bloc’s third-largest economy. The interest rate on Italy’s 10-year bonds has reached the same 7 percent level that eventually forced Greece, Portugal and Ireland to request multibillion euro bailouts. Speculation Premier Silvio Berlusconi will be replaced by leading economist and former Commissioner Mario Monti once he officially resigns has helped calm the market mood somewhat Thursday, but interest rates remain much higher than just a week ago. And although Greece named Lucas Papademos, former vice president of the European Central Bank, as interim prime minister, there are still doubts over whether the country can sustain its massive debt in the long run. The Commission’s half-yearly predictions also warned that unemployment in the EU would be stuck at 9.5 percent for the foreseeable future. That’s even higher than the 9 percent rate in the U.S. “While jobs are increasing in some member states, no real improvement is forecast in the unemployment situation in the EU as a whole,” Rehn said. The report also contained some worrying figures for some individual member states. Italy is unlikely to fulfill its promise of balancing its budget by 2013 if recently promised austerity and reform measures aren’t implemented. According to the forecast, which does not take into account the most recent promises, Italy will still run a deficit of 1.2 percent, with debt close to 119 percent of economic output. And growth is set to slow to 0.1 percent next year, down from 1.3 percent forecast this spring. Berlusconi has come under so much pressure that he promised to resign as soon as the new budget has been passed. The Commission this weeks started a verification mission in Rome to check on Italy’s efforts. The International Monetary Fund is due to follow soon. Rehn said Italy’s most important task in Italy was to restore political credibility and effective decision making. He added that because of the relatively long average maturities of Italy’s debt, the country could sustain the recent jump in borrowing costs for a short time. Several other states that have so far not been caught up in the debt storm will soon risk sanctions under new EU spending rules if they don’t implement additional measures to get their budgets control, Rehn warned. “What we need now is unwavering implementation,” Rehn said. “On my part, I will start using the new rules of economic governance from day one.” The countries that may face sanctions first are the eurozone nations of Belgium, Cyprus, and Malta, as well as Hungary and Poland, which do not use the euro. Under the new rules, set to come into force in mid-December, sanctions for countries that break the caps on budget deficits and debt levels become more automatic, in an effort to prevent a worsening of the debt crisis.

Read the full article →

Fears Of Italy Default Grow As Borrowing Costs Rise

November 10, 2011

Market confidence in Italy’s ability to pay its bills faded quickly on Wednesday, and experts warn that fears of Italian default could weigh heavily on the U.S. economy as it fights against a renewed economic downturn. Interest rates on 10-year Italian bonds rose above 7 percent on Wednesday to a euro-era high, increasing by almost a full percentage point from Tuesday’s rates. While the European Central Bank may yet step in to buy Italy’s debt, allowing the nation to keep making payments on its current debt load, some economists say that it is becoming increasingly likely for Italy to default, dragging Europe and the United States into recession anew. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who has failed to fulfill his promises to European leaders to slash his government’s massive debt, vowed Tuesday to step down once the Italian parliament has passed austerity measures. But that did not stop investors from demanding higher interest rates from Italy on Wednesday as fears mounted that an Italian default could freeze lending and send banks falling like dominoes. “This is exponentially more serious than Lehman Brothers,” said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group. “The exposure of the global banking system is much greater, and there is really a lack of any solution to this.” Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at the economic forecasting firm IHS Global Insight, estimated a 15- to 20-percent chance that Italy will default on its debt, which he said would cause bank runs, a credit crunch and a year-plus-long recession in Europe, leading to a recession in the United States that would send unemployment over 10 percent, he said. Investors around the world panicked in response to the spike in Italian interest rates. The S&P 500 plummeted 3.67 percent, the DAX in Germany fell 2.21 percent and the value of the euro plunged 2 percent against the dollar. Bank stocks also took a beating, as shares for Goldman Sachs fell 8.21 percent, JPMorgan Chase stocks fell 7.08 percent and Morgan Stanley shares plunged 9.01 percent. Economists say borrowing costs are a leading factor in Italy’s possible default. Beyond the nation’s staggering debt and its own economic contraction, Behravesh attributed the spike in those costs to political dysfunction in Europe. Italy will become much more likely to default, he said, if the interest rate on its debt rises above 8 percent. The wider European bank failure likely sparked by an Italian default would likely cause other troubled countries in the euro zone — such as Spain, Portugal and Greece — to miss their debt payments, some economists say, as the other nations’ higher borrowing costs make their debt burdens likewise unsustainable. Before long, the whole of Europe could be plunged into recession. And that plunge would make wider waves. At 27 percent of the global economy, the European Union is the world’s largest player, according to IHS Global Insight, and economists fear a deep recession in Europe would drag the rest of the world down, too. Baumohl said that if Italy defaults on its debt, the United States would fall back into recession because exports to Europe would slow, banks would be forced to take losses on their European loans and debt insurance, and U.S. banks would tighten lending. Behravesh said he expects the European Central Bank to come to the rescue. The ECB most likely will print more money to buy Italian bonds, he said, to allow Italy to keep financing its debt, and European leaders will probably boost the size of the European Financial Stability Facility, the euro bailout fund, to an amount that can at least calm markets. “The ECB now is the only thing standing between Europe and the precipice, so in the end the Germans will come around,” Behravesh said. Borrowing costs for Italy would fall if the country implements the necessary budget cuts and structural reforms to allow its economy to grow and make its debt burden more sustainable, said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at California State University. But Italy seems increasingly unable to address the crisis on its own. Since the country’s liberal opposition party is “very beholden to unions” and the nation is entering a recession, it would be difficult for the government to implement the structural economic reforms and budget cuts necessary to reassure investors and lower interest rates, Behravesh said. Moreover, as the Italian economy shrinks, budget cuts are likely to worsen the economy and debt burden as taxpayers’ incomes fall, he said. An Italian default would endanger French banks the most, since they have invested $106.8 billion in Italian sovereign debt, according to the Bank for International Settlements. U.S. banks have invested $12.9 billion in Italian sovereign debt, which they would lose if Italy defaults. Some economists say that it is also unlikely for Italy to abandon the euro, since the value of the Italian lira would plummet in the international markets. The rush to move Italian money elsewhere would crater the nation’s banks people, rendering the move counterproductive, said New York University economist Nicholas Economides. Stronger European economies might leave the euro if Italy defaults, however, a scenario that some economists see as more threatening. If banks holding European sovereign debt fail absent needed capital, the broader European economy would shrink sharply, endangering the stability of the euro zone as a whole, the economists warn. Behravesh said he expects European leaders to strive to avoid a scenario in which Italy leaves the euro, which would likely precipitate a series of similar departures. After borrowing costs spike for other countries, he said, the temptation for them to devalue their own currencies to have cheaper exports and a cheaper sovereign debt burden would be irresistible. “If Italy leaves, it’s all over for the European experiment, as far as I’m concerned,” Behravesh said. Reuters reported on Wednesday that German and French leaders have discussed creating a smaller euro zone made up of stronger economies. Behravesh said that while he can’t imagine that European leaders have seriously discussed removing Italy from the euro zone, such “really irresponsible” political discussions are contributing to higher interest rates for Italy. “That’s not even playing with fire,” he said. “It’s playing with dynamite.”

Read the full article →

Dan Solin: What MF Global Can Teach You About Investing

November 9, 2011

The sordid details concerning the demise of MF Global are well-known. MF Global is the holding company for a broker-dealer headed by former New Jersey governor and Goldman Sachs co-chairman Jon Corzine. According to published reports , MF Global filed for bankruptcy on October 31, 2011. Its broker dealer division, MF Global Inc. is liquidating its assets. The demise of MF Global is attributed to its $6.3 billion bet on European sovereign debt. These events are deeply troubling, but they pale in comparison to the allegations that $593 million in customer funds remain “unaccounted for.” About 150,000 customer accounts were frozen by the trustee in charge of liquidating the brokerage firm. These customers face long delays in resolving this mess. You can learn some valuable lessons from this debacle. Here are some of them: High Returns Mean High Risk The appeal of investments in hedge funds and commodities is the high return these funds can generate. The enticement of high returns blinds investors to commensurate risk inherent in these investments. The high fees and commission structure of these investments encourages fund managers to take big risks with your money. There’s no free lunch in investing. Investments in hedge funds and commodities is speculation, not investing. The expected return of speculation is zero, or less when you consider high transaction costs. Transparency Has Its Benefits Publicly traded mutual funds are regulated by the SEC under the Investment Company Act of 1940. The Act requires extensive disclosure and independently audited financial statements. Mutual funds are required to have a Board of Directors, the majority of whom must be independent from the mutual fund company. Mutual funds use fund custodians, many of which are qualified banks. The banks segregate mutual funds securities from their other assets. If the mutual fund goes belly-up, customer accounts are safely in the possession of the custodian. These protections are not foolproof, but they provide the minimal security you should insist on before you entrust your hard-earned money to any broker or advisor. ” Investment Guru” is an Oxymoron The media is understandably focused on the missing client funds from the accounts of MF Global’s clients. Relatively little attention has been paid for the reason for its demise. MF Global owned $6.3 billion in European debt. This large commitment led to demands for regulators to boost capital based on concern over Europe’s debt crisis. Mr. Corzine and his colleagues were no doubt extremely well qualified, sophisticated investors. How did they make a bet of this magnitude that led to the collapse of their firm? Remember the Ospraie Fund? It shut down its commodities hedge fund after it lost 26.7% in August, 2008 due to losses in the energy, mining and natural resources sectors. Sometimes the “investment pros” are right and sometimes they are wrong. When they are right, they are typically lucky. It’s hard to find evidence of investment skill. Smart investors don’t risk their nest egg hoping they can find one of the lucky managers who will outperform the markets. Instead, pay attention to this observation by Michael Lewis, a distinguished financial journalist: “Wall Street, with its army of brokers, analysts, and advisers funneling trillions of dollars into mutual funds, hedge funds, and private equity funds, is an elaborate fraud.” Dan Solin is the author of the New York Times best sellers The Smartest Investment Book You’ll Ever Read , The Smartest 401(k) Book You’ll Ever Read , and The Smartest Retirement Book You’ll Ever Read . His new book, The Smartest Portfolio You’ll Ever Own , was released in September, 2011.The views set forth in this blog are the opinions of the author alone and may not represent the views of any firm or entity with whom he is affiliated. The data, information, and content on this blog are for information, education, and non-commercial purposes only. Returns from index funds do not represent the performance of any investment advisory firm. The information on this blog does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice and is limited to the dissemination of opinions on investing. No reader should construe these opinions as an offer of advisory services. Readers who require investment advice should retain the services of a competent investment professional. The information on this blog is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or class of securities mentioned herein. Furthermore, the information on this blog should not be construed as an offer of advisory services. Please note that the author does not recommend specific securities nor is he responsible for comments made by persons posting on this blog.

Read the full article →

Eric Margolis: Zorba – Less Dancing, More Work

November 8, 2011

Why should 330 million Europeans face a financial and likely political meltdown for the sake of 11 million profligate Greeks? They should not. Just ask the angry Germans who actually believe there is no free lunch. The best thing for the Greeks and for Europe is for Greece to be asked to quietly leave the Euro club. That’s the simple, brutal solution to the current financial crisis that is threatening to tear apart the European Union and provoke a global financial crisis. As the old New York expression goes, “first loss, best loss.” Meaning, the longer one delays taking a loss, the worse it gets. Greece, let’s recall, wriggled into the 17-member Eurozone by faking its accounts and falsifying economic and tax figures. The EU closed its eyes to these frauds because of a desire to unite all of Europe. So, it seems, did Italy, which currently owes money lenders €2 trillion and must borrow €300 billion this year alone just to service its gargantuan debts. Panic over Italy’s awesome debts has now begun, as Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi — who has done a pretty good job of managing unmanageable Italy — clings to power by his well-manicured fingernails. Unlike the EU’s mostly dreary leaders, at least “il commendatore” has style and panache. Three other nations, Romania, Bulgaria and Cyprus, were also admitted to the EU for similar bad reasons. Greek Cyprus is in the Eurozone; Romania and Bulgaria are not, though euros are widely used by both nations. Greece’s financial and political crisis has infected Europe and threatens to ignite a banking crisis as destructive and dangerous as the 2008 collapse of Wall Street’s Lehman Brothers. It’s very sad to see this disaster. For me, Greeks are delightful people: fun-loving, zesty, smart, hard-working. The problem is that many of the most capable, industrious alpha Greeks long ago decamped to the US, Canada, Australia and the Mideast to escape their corrupt governments and unfriendly business environment. Greeks own many of America’s restaurants and the world’s ships. Left behind in Greece were too many lazy public sector workers and do-nothing bureaucrats who owed their sinecures to political patronage. Dynastic political clans rotated in power, weaving Byzantine intrigues as the economy went to the dogs. Greece’s socialists and conservatives both stuffed government with supporters to buy their votes. Since few Greeks paid any taxes, Greece’s corrupt political class had to borrow from abroad to keep the lights on in Athens. Europe’s witless lemming bankers poured into higher-yielding Greek debt, heedless of the dangers, believing the old truism, “government don’t go bankrupt.” But they do. Austerity or no austerity, there is no way Greece can ever make good on its debts unless Europe uses financial smoke and mirrors to sustain its massive borrowings. Few Europeans, however, are eager to support Greece’s “dolce vita” when they themselves face growing austerity. Besides, Greece will never be able to pay off its debts from tourism and exporting olives. Kicking Greece out of the Eurozone will obviously create a huge explosion. Many Greek banks, which are also active in the Balkans and Cyprus, will go under. There will be runs on the banks by panicked Greek depositors. Greek trade will be disrupted. Russian banks will be shaken. Europe’s reckless bankers, particularly the French, will suffer major losses on Greek public and private debt. They deserve it. The banking fools who piled into Greek debt should be fired. Greece must swallow bitter medicine. Doing so is absolutely vital if the poison of too much debt is to be purged from Europe’s sickly body. Debt addiction must be broken, both in Europe and the United States. Time for cold turkey. Germany, once the scourge of Europe but now hailed as its potential savior, will have to join France in shoring up banks that are holding pots of Greek debt. Some big banks should be nationalized, if necessary. If too big to fail, they are a national security risk and must be either taken over or broken up. Now is a good time to take action. The Greek debacle should be used by governments to break the power of the bankers by imposing taxes on financial transactions, heavily taxing banker’s unseemly bonuses, and sharply limiting bank’s ability to lend more than they hold in assets. Just this past week, the shocking collapse of Wall Street trading firm MF Global showed that even after the 2008 crash, US federal regulators have utterly failed to assure the financial system’s safety. We learn that MF Global had leveraged its capital 35 or even 42 to 1, the same perilous ratio that brought down Wall Street’s titans in 2008. That means MF Global lent out or invested $35-42 for every dollar it held. That’s crazy Las Vegas behavior and a formula for disaster. In the United States and many other nations, the cost of borrowing money is tax deductible. This unwarranted subsidy to borrowers encourages the dominance of finance over manufacturing, and encourages reckless risk-taking. It has allowed big finance to buy politicians in the US, Britain and Europe. Back to the Greeks. They will be fine on their own once the poison of debt leaves their system. Greece, always a poor nation, tried to live big like North Europeans — on credit. Greeks should go back to their former slower, more modest Mediterranean ways. Bring back the dear old drachma, make Greeks work again at home, and relearn to live within their means. But then what about the Italians, Irish, Portuguese and Spaniards? That’s the 64,000 lire question. copyright Eric S. Margolis 2011

Read the full article →

After Big Drop, Stock Market Wraps Up Best Month In Nearly A Decade

October 31, 2011

NEW YORK — October is somewhat cursed for the stock market – the Crash of 1929, Black Monday in 1987, a slow-motion meltdown in 2008. This time, the demons made a last gasp, but Wall Street still managed to break the jinx. Stocks had their best month in almost a decade, rising from their low point of the year in an almost uninterrupted four-week rally. The juice mostly came from Europe, which appeared to finally find a strategy for taming its debt crisis. But the finish sure was ugly. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 276 points and finished below 12,000 on the final day of the month. It was as rough an end as it was a beginning: On the first trading day of the month, Oct. 3, the Dow lost 258. Bank stocks were hit hard Monday. MF Global, a securities firm headed by former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, filed for bankruptcy protection. Rating agencies downgraded the company last week, worried that it holds too much European debt. Still, even counting the Halloween scare, October 2011 will be remembered on Wall Street for a comeback that only the St. Louis Cardinals, baseball’s nearly eliminated, newly crowned champions, could match. For the month, the Dow rose more than 1,000 points. It gained 9.5 percent, its best showing since October 2002. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index, the broadest major market average, rose 10.8 percent for the month, the best since December 1991. On Oct. 3, both the Dow and the S&P closed at their lows of the year. The market had been through a brutal summer and was one bad day away from falling into bear market territory, down 20 percent from its most recent peak. Investors were worried that the United States, with an economy growing at the slowest pace since the end of the Great Recession, was on the brink of falling back into recession. And if the U.S. didn’t tip into a new recession by itself, the market was worried that Europe would give it a push. Greece and other European nations face crushing debt, and European banks that loaned them money face big losses. A recession in Europe would be bad news for the United States because Europe buys about 20 percent of American exports. Someone opening a quarterly account statement at about that time might have tossed it in the garbage and been afraid to look again. But that day was to be the turning point. Reports that European leaders were working on a debt plan began trickling out. Investors gained confidence after the leaders of France and Germany pledged to come up with a far-reaching resolution by the end of the month. Added to the encouraging news out of Europe: stronger corporate earnings from the likes of Google and McDonald’s and signs that the U.S. economy was not as bad as feared. Retail sales rose 1.1 percent in September, the biggest gain in seven months. When European leaders finally unveiled the deal Thursday, stocks roared higher. The S&P 500 jumped 3.7 percent and was up for the year for the first time since Aug. 3, just before the U.S. government’s debt lost its AAA credit rating. “It’s a rally off what was a very pessimistic view of the global economy,” says Todd Henry, an emerging-market equity specialist at T. Rowe Price. “Does it have legs? I think that’s yet to be seen.” Under the debt agreement, banks will take a 50 percent loss on their Greek government bonds. Europe will also add money to a financial rescue fund to protect other countries. And banks will increase their capital reserves to protect themselves. With the October books closed, the Dow was at 11,955.01, up about 83 percent from March 2009, its lowest point after the financial meltdown. It would have to rise more than 2,200 points from here to set an all-time high. The S&P 500 finished the month at 1,253.50, down 32 points on Monday, or 2.5 percent. The Nasdaq composite index fell 53 points for the day, or 1.9 percent, and ended October at 2,684. Besides the Depression-heralding collapse in 1929, the crash in 1987 and the meltdown 2008, the stock market suffered through a mini-crash on Friday the 13th in October 1989 and a 554-point drop in the Dow on Oct. 27, 1997. But the month “turned the tide” in 11 bear markets after World War II, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. And it turned out to be the best single month for the market from 1993 to 2007, according to the almanac. Strong as it was, this October wasn’t close to ranking as one of the best. After the 1929 crash, the market routinely ran up much bigger percentage gains. In July and August 1932, for example, the market gained more than 36 percent each month. Worries about a second recession have receded somewhat. The government announced last week that the economy in July, August and September grew at an annual rate of 2.5 percent, more than twice the speed of earlier this year. The European debt crisis is still far from fixed. One troubling sign is that borrowing costs for Italy and Spain have increased, a signal that traders remain worried about those countries’ ability to pay their debts. And there are problems closer to home. A congressional “supercommittee” has to find $1.2 trillion in deficit cuts in less than a month, and Republicans and Democrats are fighting about whether to focus on higher taxes or cuts in federal spending. If they can’t agree, investors are worried that Moody’s, the prominent credit rating agency, will follow S&P and strip the United States of its top rating, or that S&P will lower its rating even further.

Read the full article →

Country Finds $78 Billion Surprise

October 29, 2011

Germany is 55.5 billion euros ($78.7 billion) richer than it thought due to an accountancy error at the bad bank of nationalized mortgage lender Hypo Real Estate (HRE), the finance ministry said. Europe’s largest economy now expects its ratio of debt to gross domestic product to be 81.1 percent for 2011, 2.6 percentage points less than previously forecast, it said. The HRE-linked bad bank FMS Wertmanagement FMSWA.UL was set up after HRE was nationalized in 2009, so that HRE could transfer the worst non-performing assets to an off-balance sheet bank guaranteed by the German state. “Apparently it was due to sums incorrectly entered twice,” said a ministry spokesman on Friday, adding the reason for the error still needed to be clarified. The government nonetheless welcomed the news which pointed to a further reduction of Germany’s debt mountain, which remains above the European Union’s Maastricht requirement for 60 percent of GDP. However, the opposition Social Democrats (SPD) expressed astonishment at the extent of the accountancy error, for which they see the government as responsible. “This is not a sum that the Swabian housewife hides in a biscuit tin and forgets,” said SPD parliamentary leader Thomas Oppermann. “To overlook such a sum is completely irresponsible.” Swabians, from the south-west of Germany, are renowned for their savings skills. Of the total sum uncovered at FMS, 24.5 billion euros is for 2010 and 31 billion euros is for 2011. “HRE’s bad bank is a state-owned bank for which (Finance Minister) Wolfgang Schaeuble is responsible,” Oppermann added. “He is responsible for the bank being managed and supervised in an orderly way, and this clearly was not the case.” FMS Wertmanagement was created when toxic loans and securities with a face value of 173 billion euros were transferred from HRE in October last year, creating Germany’s largest bad bank. ($1 = 0.705 Euros) (Reporting by Sarah Marsh and Thomas Seythal) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

Read the full article →

BofA Likely To Alter Rules For Debit Card Fees After Criticism

October 28, 2011

(Rick Rothacker) – Bank of America Corp, after receiving heavy public criticism for a planned $5 per-month debit card fee, is likely to give customers more ways to avoid the fee, a person familiar with the bank’s plans said Friday. The second largest U.S. bank is likely to allow many customers to avoid the fee by taking measures such as maintaining minimum balances, having paychecks direct deposited, or using Bank of America credit cards, the person said. Under earlier plans, customers might have needed balances totaling $20,000 across all their Bank of America accounts to avoid the fee. Bank of Americas unleashed a firestorm of criticism from customers, consumer advocates and politicians last month when it disclosed plans to charge customers $5 per month for using their debit cards, starting sometime next year. The goal was to make up revenue lost to a law that slashes the fees banks charge retailers when consumers swipe their cards. Some other major banks have quietly pulled back on the charges. After testing a $3 per month fee in two states since February, JPMorgan Chase & Co decided not to charge customers, a person familiar with the situation said on Friday. The test will end next month and will not be extended or expanded, the person added. Wells Fargo & Co started testing a $3 per-month fee in five states on October 14. The bank has not had time to evaluate results and has not made any changes in the program, Wells spokeswoman Lisa Westermann said. Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America is not abandoning the fee now and will likely include it in new account types the bank is testing in three states. The bank plans to roll out these packages nationwide next year. The $5 per-month fee may still remain an option for customers, the person said. The bank has said the purpose of the new account types is to provide customers with upfront pricing, instead of hitting them with penalties after the fact. Customers can pay monthly fees of between $9 and $20, or avoid the charges by keeping minimum balances, using their credit cards or having a minimum amount deposited to their account. While some banks have disclosed plans to apply similar fees, many banks and credit unions decided not to institute the charge and have encouraged customers to switch banks. (Reporting by Rick Rothacker in Charlotte, North Carolina; editing by Andre Grenon) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

Read the full article →

Global Ban Advances To Stop Dumping Toxic Waste On Developing Countries

October 22, 2011

CARTAGENA, Colombia — More than 170 countries agreed Friday to accelerate adoption of a global ban on the export of hazardous wastes, including old electronics, to developing countries. The environmental group Basel Action Network called the deal, which was brokered by Switzerland and Indonesia, a major breakthrough. “I’m ecstatic,” said its executive director, Jim Puckett. “I’ve been working on this since 1989 and it really does look like the shackles are lifted and we’ll see this thing happen in my lifetime.” The deal seeks to ensure that developing countries no longer become dumping groups for toxic waste including industrial chemicals, discarded computers and cellphones and obsolete ships laden with asbestos, he said. Delegates at the U.N. environmental conference in Cartagena agreed the ban should take effect as soon as 17 more countries ratify an amendment to the so-called 1989 Basel Convention. “This agreement was stalled for the past 15 years,” Colombia’s environment minister, Frank Pearl, said in praising the vote. Katharina Kummer, the convention’s executive secretary, estimated it will take about five years to reach the required 68 ratifying nations. Puckett said he thought it would be closer to two years. Fifty-one nations have already ratified the 1995 amendment, which effectively enforces the Basel Convention, a treaty aimed at making nations manage their waste at home rather than send it overseas. The United States, the world’s top exporter of electronic waste, is among nations that have not even ratified the original convention. “Unless the U.S. joins the treaty they are just going to be a renegade,” Puckett said, adding that the U.S. has no rules for exporting electronic waste, which it sends mostly to China but also to Africa and Latin America. Phone messages left by The Associated Press for members of the U.S. delegation to the talks were not immediately returned. The global ban has been strongly backed by African countries, China and the European Union, which already prohibits toxic exports and Puckett said Colombia played a strong role in Friday’s breakthrough. Opponents have been led by Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Japan, and recently joined by India, said Puckett. But in Cartagena, he said, Japan’s position softened from 2008, when parties to the convention held their last meeting in Bali, Indonesia. It ended in a stalemate. The issue took center stage in 2006 when hundreds of tons of waste were dumped around the Ivory Coast’s main city of Abidjan, killing at least 10 people and sickening tens of thousands. The waste came from a tanker chartered by the Dutch commodities trading company Trafigura Beheer BV, which had contracted with a local company to dispose of the waste. Puckett said shipping companies had opposed inclusion in the ban, wanting the keep sending old ships to India, Pakistan and Bangladesh to scrap them. “Just about four days ago another six people died on the beaches of Bangladesh,” he said. He told the AP there are no reliable estimates on how many tons of toxic waste are exported annually because developed nations don’t accurately report them. He said a private U.S. company will, for example, list them as “exports” in sending them to a developing nation so they can avoid paying taxes and other fees. The Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal allows its 178 members to ban imports and requires exporters to gain consent before sending toxic materials abroad. But critics say insufficient funds, widespread corruption and the absence of the United States as a participant have undermined the convention, leaving millions of poor people exposed to heavy metals, PCBs and other toxins. They have long argued that an outright ban of exporting toxic waste is the only solution. ___ Frank Bajak contributed from Bogota, Colombia.

Read the full article →

Is This The Next Michigan?

October 15, 2011

ANN ARBOR, Mich. — When Rich Sheridan lost his job in the dot-com bubble about a decade ago and decided to start his own company, he had some trouble explaining the idea to his wife. “I came home and told Carol I had lost my job and she went, ‘So you’re unemployed,’” he said. “And I said, ‘No, I’m an entrepreneur now.’” Even after weeks of working in his basement with friends on the business plan, when it came time to invest some $15,000 of the family’s money in the nascent firm, Carol was confused. “I was just thinking, what business?” she recalled, adding that she thought her husband and his friends had been applying for jobs together in the basement. What they had been plotting instead was Menlo Innovations , a software-design outfit that now has 42 employees and that Sheridan and his partners expect will bring in about $5 million in revenue this year. And they weren’t alone. While Michigan’s economy is distressed overall, the emergence of countless small technology start-ups here in recent years gives some hope that there are better days ahead. But even as a report issued this month showed that, for all the state’s challenges, Michigan gained more tech jobs than any other state in 2010, there is still some lingering uncertainty about a brand of business that is much different from automobile manufacturing. Take Carol Sheridan’s father, for one. He worked for Chrysler for 10 years and was later a tool and die maker for an auto parts manufacturer. When Rich Sheridan wanted to start Menlo, his father-in-law “looked at him funny,” as James Goebel, another of the founders, remembered. The state as a whole has had to wrap its mind around these new kinds of companies, which are among the fastest growing in Michigan. Even as GDP growth struggles here, the high concentrations of students and engineers have made it an attractive place to start new companies. Many of these have been founded by graduates of the University of Michigan, which recently announced that it would begin investing in companies that begin on its campus. Still, Goebel said that Michigan investors in general are more risk-averse than venture capitalists in other states. “People here only want to start the next HP or Apple,” he said. “But you have to start 10,000 firms to end up with HP and Apple. It’s a new idea here that you would start companies knowing so many would fail.” Menlo certainly hasn’t failed, and nobody is looking at its founders with anything except admiration anymore. The company has been named a “Michigan Economic Bright Spot” and one of the fastest-growing private companies in America. Software they developed for a cytometer manufacturer helps count cells in fluid and has been one of the firm’s biggest successes. Now they’re ready to branch out into even riskier territory. Nontraditional business arrangements, such as deferring design fees in exchange for an equity stake or royalties in the final product, have always been central to what Menlo does, and was central to getting the firm off its feet in its earliest days. Now the founders are considering making this kind of “leveraged play” almost their entire business. “It’s a completely new model,” as Goebel put it, “and that’s true for us and also for the state in general.” This post is part of Patch: The Road Trip . Read Arianna Huffington’s introduction to the project , and be sure to follow Paul on Twitter and MapQuest .

Read the full article →

Euro zone considers leveraging EFSF: EU’s Rehn

September 24, 2011

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The euro zone is exploring the possibility of leveraging its bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, to better support euro countries, Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said. Speaking at a seminar on the sidelines of the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund, Rehn said this could only be explored once new operational powers for the EFSF are ratified by the 17 countries using the euro. This is likely to happen by mid-October. “Once that is done it is essential that we focus on both the long-term perspective of further fiscal integration and, in parallel, whether there are conditions to introduce some kind of euro bonds like the blue or red bonds — partly European, partly national bonds,” Rehn said. “In the meantime we need to build a bridge and I think this bridge will be developed on the basis of the current reform of the EFSF and as one part of that next stage we are contemplating the possibility of leveraging the EFSF resources to have more firepower and thus have a stronger financial firewall to support our member states that are doing the right thing,” Rehn said. Billionaire investor George Soros, also present, said several ways of leveraging were being explored: “Turning the EFSF into a bank is one, making it function as an insurance company could be another one, and using it to provide the first tranche of a guarantee, thereby relieving pressure on the others, could be yet another,” Soros said. “There are a number of options, and I am glad they are all being explored, because something needs to be done,” he said. (Reporting by Jan Strupczewski, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama )

Read the full article →

EU ministers see need for stronger bank sector

September 17, 2011

By Julien Toyer and Ilona Wissenbach WROCLAW, Poland (Reuters) – EU finance ministers agreed on Saturday that European banks must be strengthened in the follow-up to July stress tests as a report said a “systemic” crisis in sovereign debt now threatened a new credit crunch. “We reached the conclusion that we need to make our financial system more robust,” Spanish Economy Minister Elena Salgado told reporters after a meeting of EU finance ministers in the south-western Polish city of Wroclaw. “There is a consensus that it would be good for our financial institutions to strengthen their capital to comply with Basel III requirements and to face any eventuality of the moment,” she said. However, the agreement does not mean European banks are likely to get large, additional capital injections from public coffers — it is more an acknowledgement of the results of the European bank stress tests in July. The tests showed a financing gap for banks of only 6 billion euros ($8 billion) — a sum many investors believe could be much higher if the debt crisis worsens. European banks are therefore struggling to borrow amid growing alarm among U.S. money market funds, and other traditional dollar lenders, about the effect of a feared Greek debt default on European banks’ books. Persistent jitters over French banks’ exposure to Italy and Greece hammered the shares of BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole. On Wednesday, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Credit Agricole and Societe Generale, citing increased concerns about their funding and liquidity profiles in light of worsening refinancing conditions. It left the ratings of the biggest French bank BNP on review for downgrade. “From our perspective, we see a clear need for bank recapitalisation,” Swedish Finance minister Anders Borg told reporters on leaving the meeting of finance ministers. “I think the IMF has spelled it out very clearly. The EU banking system needs better backstops and that’s basically a matter of capital,” he said. HIGHER CAPITAL NEEDED TO CALM MARKET DOUBTS A document prepared for the ministers’ meeting said banks should raise their capital. Guidelines for the stress tests stipulate banks should announce measures to boost capital, if needed, within 3 months of the results and carry out the increase, preferably financed by private investors, within 6 months. “Despite the increased resilience of European banks and the limited remaining refinancing needs for the rest of 2011, in view of a compelling market pressure for an increase in banking capital benchmarks and with the aim of dispelling any doubts on the intrinsic stability of most banks, a further reinforcement of bank resources is advisable at this juncture,” it said. “This is important for banks that have failed the stress test, but also for those that have passed the test but with capital level close to the relevant threshold, and particularly with sizeable exposures to sovereigns under stress,” it said. Central banks around the world announced on Thursday they would work together to offer extra loans in U.S. dollars to banks, a move designed to prevent money markets from freezing up in the wake of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. “We noted the fact that unlimited liquidity windows are opened,” Salgado said. “(But) they’re short term and this situation is not optimal,” she said. Some ministers sought to play down the banks’ troubles. “The overall situation of European banks is stable,” said the head of the euro zone finance ministers’ group, Jean-Claude Juncker. “All the instruments are in place to make sure the financial system continues to work properly,” Luxembourg’s Finance Minister Luc Frieden said. The report for the meeting showed the sector could be facing a credit crunch. It said there could be “a dangerous negative loop between the financial and the real sectors (of the economy), whereby funding problems and increasing risk aversion of banks may lead to disruptive deleveraging by banks, thereby generating a credit crunch, in some Member States, with consequences for the economic recovery and the credit quality of banking assets.” “The risk of a vicious circle between sovereign debt, bank funding and negative growth developments is therefore apparent now, at a time where the margin for maneuver is considerably more limited than in 2008-2009,” the document said. EU DIVIDED OVER FINANCIAL TRANSACTION TAX Ministers also discussed a tax on financial transactions, such as a levy on trading shares, an idea championed by Germany, France and Austria, but the idea does not have broad support. “There is no common position on a financial transaction tax in Europe. We have only started the debate on that and there is no decision,” Internal Market Commissioner Michel Barnier said. The United States does not want to implement such a tax, making it difficult for Europe to go it alone for fear that it could push more trading to New York. Germany has said it may pursue a tax solely in the euro zone if countries like Britain refuse to support it but even here, some states such as Italy are skeptical. (Additional reporting by Robin Emmott, Francesca Landini, Annika Breidthardt, John O’Donnell, Jan Strupczewski, Julien Toyer and Ilona Wissenbach) (Writing by Jan Strupczewski; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

Read the full article →

The Economics of Oktoberfest

September 16, 2011

By Brian Blackstone of the Wall Street Journal Germany has been in open revolt over the European Central Bank‘s policy of buying the government debt of struggling euro-zone economies such as Spain and Italy, arguing that it is destabilizing and potentially inflationary. Now we may know why: Oktoberfest is getting awfully pricey. According to UniCredit‘s Munich-based economist Alexander Koch, Oktoberfest inflation — measured by the cost of transportation, two Mass (or liter) of beer and half a grilled chicken — is set to rise 3.3% this year from a year ago. (Read the report here.) That’s well above the ECB’s 2% target for euro-zone inflation. The 178th annual Oktoberfest begins in Munich on Saturday at noon with the Munich mayor’s declaration: “O’zapft is,” meaning “it is tapped.” Beer prices have already been set at an average of nine euros per liter, an increase from last year, Koch writes in his research note: “Oktoberfest 2011: A Somewhat Different Safe Haven.” It is unclear how much effect the escalating debt crisis in southern Europe and Ireland will have on Oktoberfest this year. Of the three countries in EU-IMF bailouts, only Ireland ranks in the top 10 of foreign visitors to Munich for the festivities, and it only accounts for 2%. But Italy, where austerity measures have been enacted to bring down a large debt load, ranks first. The U.S., which has its own economic woes, is second. Read the entire post here. More from the Wall Street Journal : ‘SpongeBob’ Hurts Gratification-Delay Skills Video: Does America Really Need More Jobs? Housing Crisis Hits Billionaire’s Beach

Read the full article →

Citigroup To Start Charging Customers For Not Having Enough Money

September 16, 2011

Citigroup Inc said it will start charging a monthly fee of $10 on checking and savings accounts with combined balances of less than $1,500, joining a growing list of banks seeking to recoup revenue lost under new financial industry regulations. The fee will be waived if a customer completes one direct deposit and one online bill payment per month through an account, or maintains a balance of at least $1,500 in checking and savings accounts, Citigroup said on Friday The change takes effect in December. Under Citi’s current fee structure, customers are not required to maintain minimum account balances but must complete five transactions a month through an account to avoid a monthly fee of $8. Citigroup said it will not charge for debit card use or online bill payment. Stephen Troutner, head of banking products for Citi’s U.S. consumer bank, said free debit card use could woo customers from other banks that are weighing whether to charge for debit card use, such as JPMorgan Chase & Co and Wells Fargo & Co. “Customers have told us in no uncertain terms that is a huge source of irritation,” Troutner said. New York-based Citi is the latest bank to tinker with its fee structure following changes in U.S. consumer banking regulations and laws over the last two years. New regulations — part of a broad financial sector reform effort — limit overdraft fees and other penalty fees banks can charge. In response, many banks have begun introducing monthly service fees for accounts, debit card use and visits to branches. Bank of America Corp, the largest U.S. bank by assets, added checking account fees last year. The BofA changes include an ebanking account, which allows customers to use ATMs and online banking for free but charges a monthly fee of $7 for teller visits or receiving paper statements. (Reporting by Joe Rauch in Charlotte, N.C.; editing by John Wallace) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

Read the full article →

Geithner To Float Leveraging Euro Rescue Along Lines Of U.S. Program

September 15, 2011

WROCLAW, Poland (Reuters) – Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is likely to suggest to European finance ministers on Friday that they leverage their bailout fund along the lines of the U.S. TALF program, EU officials said. “Geithner will probably insist on the importance of leverage to have more funds to ringfence the big Europeans, Italy and Spain, and to find a solution for Greece,” one EU official said. “The leveraging of the EFSF — I think this is something that he will put on the table,” the official said. “There could be some openness to the proposal.” TALF — the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility — was set up by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury during the global financial crisis in 2008 to jumpstart the frozen Asset Backed Securities (ABS) market. Under TALF, the New York Fed would lend out up to $200 billion, taking ABS as collateral with a haircut and the Treasury offered $20 billion credit protection for the Fed. In this way, a little bit of public money leveraged a much larger central bank contribution and the same idea could work for the European Financial Stability Facility, which has 440 billion euros at its disposal, to offer credit protection to, for example, the ECB to buy euro zone sovereign bonds. “One of the difficulties is that leverage may be seen as a potential liability,” a second EU official said. “But it deserves to be looked at in detail.” A third euro zone official said that Canada has made the same suggestion for Europe. “It could help those countries where the sovereign bond market is still curable,” the third official said. Such a solution would help ease market concerns that the EFSF does not have enough money to bail out Greece, Ireland Portugal and also help Spain and Italy. “Of course you would have to see if on the basis of the EFSF mandate you can do something similar,” the first official said, adding the solution had not been free of hurdles in the United States either and in Europe they could be even bigger. “From an economic point of view it is a reasonable idea,” the first official said, noting however that the ECB would have to play along with such a scheme. “The issues are more on the institutional and legal side and of course political — you have to find a way for the ECB not to, de facto, finance fiscal policy, but on the other hand you need to have resources that the ECB has and the EFSF has not.” Leveraging the EFSF, however, would not take place before the fund’s new powers of intervention on bond markets, extending precautionary credit lines or lending for bank recapitalization were ratified by the end of September, the official said. “Once the EFSF becomes more flexible, you can see if there are ways similar or different to try to leverage more the EFSF or find other ways to have a critical mass to ringfence Italy Spain and the others,” the official said. “You can also think about leveraging on other actors, not necessarily just the ECB,” the official said. (Additional reporting by Tim Ahmann in Washington) (Reporting by Jan Strupczewski, editing by Patrick Graham) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

Read the full article →

Economists Scaling Back Growth Forecasts Through Next Year: Survey

September 12, 2011

WASHINGTON — Confronted with an economy that has decidedly underperformed this year, economists are scaling back their growth forecasts for 2011 and next year. In their latest forecast, top economists with the National Association for Business Economics predict that the economy will grow 1.7 percent this year – down from the group’s May prediction of 2.8 percent expansion. For 2012, the group is forecasting growth of 2.3 percent, compared to a May forecast of 3.2 percent growth. The new survey, released Monday, is in line with the outlook of other economists who have marked down growth prospects to reflect an economy that has struggled this year to deal with a spike in gasoline prices, production disruptions stemming from Japan’s earthquake, a flare-up of Europe’s debt problems and a prolonged debate over America’s debt ceiling. “A wide variety of factors were seen as restraining growth, including low consumer and business confidence,” said Gene Huang, the president-elect of NABE and one of 52 professional forecasters who participated in the survey. “Panelists are very concerned about high unemployment, federal deficits and the European sovereign debt crisis,” said Huang, who is chief economist at FedEx Corp. The survey was done before President Barack Obama appeared before Congress on Thursday to unveil a new $447 billion plan to jump-start job growth through a combination of tax cuts and government spending. The latest NABE outlook underscores the problems facing an economy that many economists fear could be in danger of slipping into another recession. The expectations for overall economic growth, as measured by the gross domestic product, for both 2011 and 2012 were trimmed by a percentage point from the May forecast. The May estimates had been trimmed from February when the NABE analysts were forecasting growth of 3.3 percent this year. The economy grew 3 percent in 2010, the first full year after the country emerged from the 2007-2009 recession, but slowed to an annual rate of just 0.7 percent in the first six months of this year. Because of the slow growth, the NABE forecasters don’t expect much improvement in the unemployment rate, which in August was stuck at 9.1 percent, a month when the economy didn’t create any net new jobs. For all of 2011, the economists are forecasting the unemployment rate will average 9 percent and will improve only slightly to 8.7 percent in 2012. In May, the NABE panel had projected unemployment would average 8.7 percent this year and 8.2 percent next year. Job growth was projected to average 124,000 per month this year, instead of the 190,000 average monthly job gains the economists had forecast in May. Next year’s average job growth was put at 162,000, instead of the 202,000 job gains forecast in May. The economy needs to add at least 250,000 jobs a month to rapidly bring down the unemployment rate. The rate has been above 9 percent in all but two months since May 2009. The NABE panel forecast that builders would start work on 590,000 new homes this year, no improvement from last year’s weak pace, while sales of new cars was put at 12.6 million units, up a modest 8.6 percent from the 11.6 million new vehicles sold in 2010. The economists did see a little better outlook for oil prices, which they projected would average $90 per barrel in December, down from a forecast of $105 per barrel in May. Oil was trading Friday around $87 per barrel. The new NABE forecast was prepared for the group’s annual conference, being held this year in Dallas

Read the full article →

Paul Krugman: 50 Percent Chance Global Economy Will Enter Recession

September 9, 2011

Even though Obama’s jobs plan is “bolder and better” than Paul Krugman expected, the Nobel-Prize winning economist still told Bloomberg Television on Friday that it might not be enough to stave off global recession. The risk of global recession is “quite high, maybe 50 percent,” Krugman told Bloomberg. He added: “The risk of something that feels like a recession is much higher than that. My central belief is that we’re likely to have higher unemployment a year from now than we do today.” Krugman said that while Obama’s plan “could make a noticeable difference to the economy,” Republican opposition to the President’s proposal, on top of the euro zone crisis, still makes recession a substantial possibility. Speculation over the possibility of the U.S. entering back into recession, and likely bringing the global economy with it, has been a topic of frequent discussion among economists. While World Bank President Robert Zoellick , along with a recent poll of economists , said that a recession is unlikely, others are less optimistic. Michael Spence, another Nobel Prize-winning economist, also recently pegged the chances of a global recession at 50 percent . Likewise, President of Federal Reserve Bank Charles Evans in a recent speech was of a similar mind that, even if the economy’s not technically in a recession already, high unemployment makes it feel that way. Nevertheless, Krugman’s opinion on how Republicans will receive Obama’s plan remains consistent between the two. “The chance that it’s not going to actually be enacted by Republicans is 100 percent, I think nothing will pass,” Krugman said. “I believe if Obama proposed that we honor motherhood, Republicans would vote it down.” Watch Bloomberg Television’s interview with economist Paul Krugman here.

Read the full article →

Equity hedgies sweat on returns after choppy summer

September 6, 2011

By Laurence Fletcher LONDON (Reuters) – Many jittery hedge funds are clinging to core stock holdings in the hope that a rebound in equity markets in the final four months of the year will save the $2 trillion industry from its second calendar year of losses in just four years. On average, funds that bet on rising and falling equity prices have suffered a loss of 14.4 percent so far this year, according to Hedge Fund Research’s HFRX index, which gathers data on hedge fund performance globally, while MSCI’s world index of developed stocks is down 10.5 percent. Barring a rapid rebound in the final months of the year, traders are now staring at the prospect of another negative year, after a loss of some 27 percent in 2008 according to HFRI, and of no lucrative performance fee for some time to come. For investors, the losses could raise further awkward questions about whether hedge funds are too linked to stock market performance and are failing to deliver on a key expectation that they will generate returns regardless of the market’s trend overall. “Most funds are panicking about performance,” said one investment bank executive who deals with hedge funds, who spoke on condition of anonymity, while one hedge fund executive said: “Hedge fund psychology in a normal fund in a normal year gets very stressy around this time of year. “If the fund doesn’t make (its losses) back, it’s going to be a hell of a long time until you get paid a decent amount of money.” Equity funds are now hoping that history will repeat itself and that a rally in stock markets can drive a late surge in hedge fund performance, as seen in 2009 and 2010. Managers have trimmed borrowing over the summer but, unlike in previous selloffs such as in 2008, many have largely hung onto their positions in favored stocks, believing these holdings will eventually come good, insiders say. And, despite a reputation for aggressive short-selling, funds have also largely resisted the urge to put on big bets on tumbling prices to capitalize on further market falls. According to Data Explorers, the ratio of long positions to short positions is close to a year-high of 11.38 times. “(Managers will) hope and pray for a good four months,” said one fund of funds executive who spoke on condition of anonymity. “What’s different this time is that while many funds have de-risked, many have kept core positions and are in a reasonable position to bounce back if there is a recovery.” STARS SUFFER A number of big-name managers have been hit by a summer of bad news, including the U.S.’s debt downgrade, a deteriorating global economic outlook and the deepening eurozone debt crisis, which have rocked financial markets. Lansdowne Partners, one of Europe’s biggest hedge fund managers with around $16 billion in assets, has seen its flagship UK fund fall 15 percent in the year to August 26, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters, despite recovering some of the losses suffered early in the month. Lansdowne declined to comment. And high-profile manager Crispin Odey’s MAC fund dropped 13 percent in August, leaving it down a similar amount so far this year, although Odey remains positive on markets. But not all managers are suffering. GLG (part of Man Group Plc ) star Pierre Lagrange’s European long-short hedge fund rose 1 percent in August, taking year-to-date gains to 5 percent, a source familiar with the situation said. Marshall Wace, one of the UK’s largest hedge fund managers, saw its $400 million MW Global Opportunities Fund, managed by Fehim Can Sever, grow 10.6 percent in August after being broadly short European markets and long emerging markets, giving it a year-to-date rise of 16.3 percent, a source familiar with the situation said. Marshall Wace’s flagship $1.5 billion long-short equity Eureka Fund managed a 0.46 percent rise in August and is up just over 4 percent in 2011, the same source added. Polygon has seen its Convertibles fund gain 9 percent so far this year, a source close to the situation said. Its European event-driven fund, which invests in mid-cap stocks, lost 6 percent in August and is down 3 percent for the year. By contrast the UK’s FTSE Mid 250 index for instance is down 12 percent. So-called global macro funds have profited this summer from bearish bets, such as being long fixed income and gold and short stocks. These funds, made famous by the likes of George Soros, are down just 1 percent year-to-date, according to HFRX. “The beginning of the year was more difficult, but recent sell-offs and negativity have allowed macro managers to be positive in performance terms,” said Matt Osborne, fund manager at Altegris Investments. “The rally in the U.S. and core Europe (fixed income) has shown a real flight to quality and macro managers are participating in that.” (Additional reporting by Tommy Wilkes; Editing by David Holmes)

Read the full article →

Mohamed A. El-Erian: Credit Crisis: Tuesday’s Market Preview Is Not Pretty

September 5, 2011

To state the obvious, it is shaping up to be a difficult return for U.S. markets after the Labor Day break as European stock plunge and the European Central Bank (ECB) loses some of the control it has been exercising on the Euro-zone’s sovereign bond market. The best way to understand what is going on is through the following simplified sequence: banks-sovereigns-policies. Specifically: Banks stocks led the debacle on European bourses Monday , with drops of some 5 to 12 percent in a single day. With so many European banks holding so much European government debt on their balance sheets, the dramatic sell-off in their shares reflects mounting pressures in the sovereign bond markets. Several records have been set today, from a 92-percent annualized yield on very short-dated (six-month) Greek bonds to the risk spreads on Italian and Spanish CDS (credit default swaps). But an important element of the story is elsewhere. It has to do with the ECB’s ability to influence the yield on the Italian 10-year bond. For a while, outright ECB purchases of Italian bonds on the secondary market had succeeded in keeping that yield at or below the 5-percent level for the “old” Italian 10-year benchmark bond. In recent days, however, the yield has migrated upwards, and today it touched some 5.5 percent. The jury is still out as to whether the ECB “allowed” the yield to rise, as a way of putting pressure on the Italian authorities (and other European fiscal agencies) to get their act together, or whether the ECB itself is getting “overwhelmed” by market dynamics. But either way, European markets are troubled. The perspective in Europe is that the ECB is showing less willingness/effectiveness (you pick, one or both of these interpretations) in delivering on a signaled policy objective. It also does not help — in fact, it hurts, and does so materially — that too many European policymakers and politicians are out there with so many confusing and, in some cases, conflicting remarks. Once again, already fragile U.S. markets will be influenced by developments on the other side of the Atlantic — and in a week in which there is great anticipation for President Obama’s “mission critical” speech on the American economy. Europe’s deepening debt and growth crisis amplifies the importance of President Obama’s effort to deal with America’s deepening unemployment and growth crisis, and does so by raising both the stakes and the challenges for the president. Tighten those seat belts. It will be a bumpy and volatile week as markets are held hostage to policy developments in both America and Europe. Mohamed El-Erian is chief executive officer and co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. This piece was cross-posted from CNBC.com . © 2011 CNBC.com

Read the full article →