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Over the years I have read at least a hundred full fledged law journal articles on legal issues relevant to private military security contractors (PMC). Toss in other periodical literature on legal issues the number increases by hundreds. Mostly these are what you would expect; dense legalese that is mind numbingly, eye glazing, boring, and unreadable, without large amounts of coffee or other stimulants. But that is not to say they are without value. It is a hallmark of the “industry” as its advocates like to call it, that so many of the legal standards and laws (Geneva Conventions, Montreux Document , which are supposed to regulate PMC, remain hotly contested and fiercely argued. While that is, of course, good news for lawyers, who chalk up thousands of billable hours, representing firms like Xe Services (formerly Blackwater), DynCorp, and a host of others, it leaves everyone else who is impacted by such firms’ activities in a vulnerable position. Sometimes it takes someone who is not yet a practicing lawyer, as in a law student, to see the forest for the trees. Thus consider what Adam Ebrahim writes in the spring 2010 issue of the Boston University International Law Journal. In his article ” Going to War with the Army You Can Afford: The United States, International Law and Private Military Industry ” he notes: While addressing soldiers stationed at a remote military camp in Iraq in the fall of 2004, then Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld remarked infamously, “you go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.” In reality, the United States and other economically developed nations go to war not just with the armies they have, but with the private armies they can afford. Private military companies (“PMCs,” also referred to as “private military firms,” “private security contractors,” and other like titles) play an unquestionably prominent role in the twenty-first century military apparatus, offering logistical support, strategic consulting, and frontline combat operations. The modern world dictates that states, individuals, corporations, and international organizations need military security around the globe, and private companies appear ready to meet this task. .. As the private military industry thrives, domestic and international law struggles to keep pace. States, including the United States, have passed laws to regulate the industry, but domestic legislation faces jurisdictional and administrative problems in affecting the behavior of an industry that operates transnationally. International law in the twentieth-century reflected both public condemnation and government indifference by the western powers, resulting in an ill-defined legal regime that undercut [*184] mercenary activity in certain limited situations. n12 Yet the international legal regime, namely that propagated by the United Nations, neither responds to the frequency, scope, and conduct of present-day PMCs, nor addresses the distinctions between mercenaries and the modern industry. Like all law journal articles his is wordy, 20685 words to be exact, so I won’t quote extensively but his conclusion is that PMCs will take on an expanded role in future military operations, governed by domestic law. The problem with that is that, thus far, there have been numerous problems in both passing and implementing domestic laws. It wasn’t until just the past few years that the U.S. Congress began passing new laws and modifying old ones. Some of these, such as the modifications to the Military Extraterritorial Jurisdiction Act or the Uniform Code of Military Justice to deal with PMC, have yet to be tested all the way up to the Supreme Court, and there is reason to believe that at least the latter won’t survive that challenge. Also, these and other laws have yet to receive the proper resources, meaning people and money, to implement them. Given that some of these laws potentially require investigation and prosecution by a district attorney, who may not be inclined and certainly won’t have the money to spend on investigation, and, if required, prosecution, it is easy to see just one problem with the domestic legal approach. Even with stronger, more settled law the issue will hardly be finished. As Ebrahim notes, “As important as the recent Nisour Square charges may be, political will, legal ambiguity, judicial resources, and evidentiary problems make criminal prosecution of PMCs difficult.” While I think that Ebrahim sounds like various PMC trade associations when he writes “Although far from complete, the evolution of U.S. law presents an increasingly coherent framework through which to regulate PMC conduct and hold PMC personnel accountable.” he is absolutely correct when he says “In contrast to the developments in domestic law, international treaties and conventions have yet to see a similar progression and continue to apply to an outdated model of mercenary usage.”

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David Isenberg: Law and the Private Armies You Can Afford

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Facing potential bankruptcy, the board that governs the once flush-with-cash Kansas City school district is taking the unusual and contentious step of shuttering almost half its schools. Administrators say the closures are necessary to keep the district from plowing through what little is left of the $2 billion it received as part of a groundbreaking desegregation case. The Kansas City school board narrowly approved the plan to close 29 out of 61 schools Wednesday night at a meeting packed with angry parents. The schools will close at the end of the school year. Although other districts nationwide are considering closures as the recession ravages their budgets, Kansas City’s plan is striking. In rapidly shrinking Detroit, 29 schools closed before classes began this fall, but that still left the district with 172 schools. Most other districts are closing just one or two schools. Emotional board member Duane Kelly told the crowd of more than 200 people Wednesday night, “This is the most painful vote I have ever cast” in 10 years on the board. Some chanted for the removal of the superintendent, while one woman asked the crowd, “Is anyone else ready to homeschool their children?” Kansas City Councilwoman Sharon Sanders Brooks said the closure plan had prompted some housing developers to consider backing out of projects. “The urban core has suffered white flight post-the 1954 U.S. Supreme Court decision Brown v. the Board of Education, blockbusting by the real estate industry, redlining by banks and other financial institutions, retail and grocery store abandonment,” Brooks said to applause from the standing-room-only crowd. “And now the public education system is aiding and abetting in the economic demise of our school district,” she said. “It is shameful and sinful.” Under the approved plan, teachers at six other low-performing schools will be required to reapply for their jobs, and the district will try to sell its downtown central office. It also is expected to cut about 700 of the district’s 3,000 jobs, including about 285 teachers. District officials face dozens of issues as they begin the massive job of downsizing the district – reworking school bus routes, figuring out what to do with vacant buildings and slashing its payroll. Superintendent John Covington has spent the past month making the case to sometimes angry groups of parents and students that the closures are necessary. Once the district had enough desegregation money to build such amenities as an Olympic-sized swimming pool. But the effort to use upscale facilities and programs to lure in students from the suburbs never worked quite as planned. Covington has stressed that the district’s buildings are only half-full as its population has plummeted amid political squabbling and chronically abysmal test scores. The district’s enrollment of fewer than 18,000 students is about half of what the schools had a decade ago and just a quarter of its peak in the late 1960s. Many students have left for publicly funded charter schools, private and parochial schools and the suburbs. The school district also isn’t the only one serving students in Kansas City; several smaller ones operate in the city’s boundaries. Covington has blamed previous administrations for failing to close schools as the enrollment – and the money that comes with it – shrank. Past school closure plans were either scaled back or scrapped entirely. Administrators warned that without the cuts, the district would have been in the red by 2011. “None of us liked voting for this,” board member and former desegregation attorney Arthur Benson said, “but it was necessary.”

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Kansas City School Board Closes Almost Half Of City’s Schools In Face Of Bankruptcy

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David Isenberg: The Get Out of Jail and Stay on Contract Free Card

March 2, 2010

My mother was right. I should have gone to law school. Perhaps then I would be able to understand one ignored aspect of the Feb. 24 Senate Armed Services Committee hearing ” Contracting in a Counterinsurgency: An Examination of the Blackwater Paravant Contract and the Need for Oversight ” which has received much publicity in the past week. The relevant background is this. In the fall of 2008, a company called Paravant entered into a subcontract with Raytheon Technical Services Company to perform weapons training for the Afghan National Army. Paravant was created in 2008 by Erik Prince Investments (the company which is now named Xe). On May 5, 2009, Justin Cannon and Christopher Drotleff, two men working for Paravant in Afghanistan, fired their weapons, killing two Afghan civilians and injuring a third. In reviewing the Army’s investigation of the incident, then-CSTC-A Commanding General Richard Formica said that it appeared that the contractor personnel involved had “violated alcohol consumption policies, were not authorized to possess weapons, violated use of force rules, and violated movement control policies.” According to the Department of Justice prosecutors, the shooting “caused diplomatic difficulties for United States State Department representatives in Afghanistan” and impacted “the national security interests of the United States.” which had “no regard for policies, rules or adherence to regulations in country.” Now, go look at the hearing documents posted online by Sen. Levin. Scroll down to Document 20, “June 9, 2009 Show Cause Notice from Raytheon to Paravant’.” Raytheon Technical Services Company LLC (“RTSC”) hereby gives notice to Paravant LLC of Paravant’s failure to perform the Task Order, issued under the Subcontract, in accordance with its terms and conditions. Accordingly, RTSC directs Paravant to show cause in writing, by 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Monday, June 15, 2009, why RTSC should not terminate the Subcontract for default under Article 5 (Termination for Default) of Section 0.01 of the Subcontract. Nothing in this letter is intended to waive, or should be construed as waiving, any of RTSC’s rights under the Subcontract or the Task Order. Reference is made to the Paravant shooting incident that occurred around 9 p.m. local time in Kabul on May 5, 2009. The available evidence concerning the incident shows the following: (J) that after consuming alcoholic beverages at a going-away party at the Kabul Military Training Center (“KMTC”), four Paravant personnel checked out two Paravant SUVs and several weapons, including at least one AK-47 assault rifle, and drove off the training center, all without authorization; (2) that one of the SUVs, while speeding and trying to swerve around a slow or stopped truck on Jalalabad Road, rolled over and left the road; and (3) that the two Paravant personnel in the second SUV fired their weapons, including the AK-47, at a car being driven by an innocent Afghan local national, causing the death of a passenger in the car and serious injuries to the driver of the car and to a bystander who is in a coma and not expected to live. Okay, it’s not hard to understand. Raytheon is informing Paravant that its people screwed up and as a result Raytheon no longer wants to use Paravant. But this is where it starts to get interesting. The next document (No. 21) is a ten-page response from Paravant to Raytheon. Essentially it says that Paravant is not in default of its contract with Raytheon because, wait for it: It is hornbook law that an entity is not liable for misconduct of one of its employees or that occurs beyond the scope of that individual’s employment. An entity is likewise not liable for actions of an independent contractor involving conduct beyond the scope of the contractor’s engagement. Accordingly, such conduct provides no basis for RTSC claiming the right to terminate the Subcontract by default.” … That the Subcontract provisions cited in the Show Cause Notice do not cover individual conduct unrelated to the performance of the contract is of no surprise. A company is not liable for the acts of its independent contractors that cause harm to others except in limited circumstances that are inapplicable here. To my layman’s eyes Paravant seems to be arguing that it enjoys a sort of contractual immunity for any illegal actions committed by its “independent contractors” as long as they occur off the clock. We might call it a ‘Get out of jail and stay on contract free card.’ This is, to say the least, a novel development. A few years ago not even Blackwater would make this argument. In December 2006 an off-duty Blackwater employee, Andrew J. Moonen, who had been drinking heavily, tried to make his way into the “Little Venice” section of the Green Zone, which houses many senior members of the Iraqi government. He was stopped by Iraqi bodyguards for Adil Abdul-Mahdi, the country’s Shi’ite vice president, and shot one of the Iraqis. Officials say the bodyguard died at the scene. Blackwater did not argue that Moonen was off duty and thus it was not their problem. Instead Blackwater fired him and fined him $14,697–the total of his back pay, a scheduled bonus, and the cost of his plane ticket home. Maybe, if the State Department had threatened to terminate Blackwater’s contract back then it would have argued it had no responsibility. We’ll have to let the lawyers figure that out. Actually, Paravant makes an at least reasonable case that Raytheon is far from an innocent party. In its response it said: Paravant’s ability to monitor and enforce its own no-alcohol policy has been undermined by the actions of RTSC’s management personnel in Afghanistan. For example, Paravant and USTC personnel have been informed that RTSC’s management personnel consumed alcohol in Kabul with Paravant’s then-In Country Manager during the evening of 22 April, 2009 at Becochios Restaurant in Kabul. Paravant subsequently terminated the contract with that In-Country Manager for violation of Paravant’s alcohol policy and other reasons, only to be instructed by RTSC Country Manager that Paravant must continue contracting for the services of this individual for 30 days, even “if you make him a bus driver.” Paravant did not follow this instruction. Similarly, RTSC’s Country Manager told a USTC Vice President in a telephone conversation occurring at approximately between 1000 and 1100 hours (EDT) on 29 April 2009, that he had a “case of Corona” beer in his room and looked forward to a toast to “Flashman” (a character in a loaned book from the USTC Vice President). Even assuming the Subcontract obligated Paravant to supervise and monitor all off-duty conduct of an independent contractor, the conduct of RTSC’s own management regarding the use of alcohol sends the wrong message and has materially interfered with Paravant’s ability to monitor and enforce its no-alcohol policy. Still, Raytheon’s July 2, 2009 reply seems to nicely eviscerate Paravant’s argument that it can’t be fired because its contractors killed and wounded the Afghan civilian while off duty. Especially troubling is Paravant’s legal position regarding the limits of its contractual responsibility for its trainers, grounded on the assertion that they are “independent contractors.” Even if that assertion were correct (and Paravant never sought the contractually required consent to subcontract any of the work, let alone all of it), Subsection 7.9.1 of Section A of the Subcontract states that Paravant “shall be responsible for and have control over the acts, errors and omissions of its lower tier subcontractors and any other persons performing any of Subcontractor’s obligations under this Subcontract.” The terms of this obligation are clear and unqualified. Accordingly, RTSC rejects Paravant’s attempt to disclaim its contractual responsibility for its trainers and to deny its clear breaches of the Subcontract based on their asserted status as independent contractors. Equally troubling is Paravant’s assertion that bears no contractual responsibility for the actions of its trainers at any time other than during the performance of training activities. To the contrary, reflecting the obvious fact that the Paravant trainers are operating alongside the U.S. Army in “24/7″ war zone, Subsections B(i), (iv), and (v) of Section K of the Subcontract state in relevant part that “Subcontractor will ensure that its personnel, representatives, and agents behave at all times in accordance with the highest professional and ethical standards” and that “Subcontractor will comply with, and shall cause all o/its personnel, representatives, and agents to comply with, all applicable laws, regulations, treaties, and directives in the predominance of this Subcontract.” (Emphasis added.) Given this unambiguous language and its obvious intent to avoid bringing discredit onto the U.S. Army, Paravant’s responsibilities cannot and do not end when its trainers clock out. Thus, on May 5, Paravant violated its responsibilities when it permitted four of its trainers to retain or reacquire their Paravant-issucd weapons after the training day ended, and when it allowed them to drive Paravant owned vehicles out of the Kabul Military Training Center and onto a public highway while under the influence of alcohol, with tragic consequences. As I said, I’m not a lawyer and it will be very interesting to see how this ends up. But one thing does pique my interest. Private military industry supporters often say that the contractors can be particularly relied on because they are mostly ex-military and as such retain the high degree of professionalism they showed while on active duty. Putting aside the fact that there is an enormous administrative and legal apparatus to maintain that professionalism for active duty servicemen and women, which private industry does not have, I remember from my days in the Navy that there really wasn’t such a thing as being off the clock. Yes, one could go on liberty or leave but one was always expected to conduct oneself properly and responsibly. Yes, I know that private security contractors aren’t on active duty any more but they are still expected, as Raytheon notes, to act “in accordance with the highest professional and ethical standards.” It would be nice if industry supporters make up their mind. Either contractors are in accordance with the highest standards–in which case they are never off the clock and thus their employers are subject to termination for default of contract–or they are not, and their responsibility ends with their shift. In the latter case, the employer gets legal cover, but then they can’t claim to have the same degree of professionalism as those on active duty.

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U.S. Conservatives Fuel Primary Races Against Some Republican Incumbents

February 21, 2010

By Jonathan D. Salant Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) — Before the activists at this week’s Conservative Action Political Conference battle Democratic candidates in the fall election, they’re first helping challenge some Republican officeholders. Insurgents such as former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio , former Representative J.D. Hayworth of Arizona and Utah lawyer Mike Lee — all running against well-established Republicans in party primaries — have found receptive audiences among those attending the annual gathering sponsored by the American Conservative Union in Washington. “I’d rather have 30 Republicans in the Senate who believe in the principles of freedom than 60 who don’t believe in anything,” Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina told the conference. “I believe in holding incumbent Republican senators accountable.” CPAC is an irresistible draw for those wanting to do just that. “The conservatives are the base of the Republican Party,” said Hayworth, who is trying to upend Senator John McCain in the Arizona Republican primary. During the three-day conference that ended yesterday, speakers heard from three potential 2012 Republican presidential candidates, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty , former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia. The two top House Republicans, John Boehner of Ohio and Eric Cantor of Virginia, also spoke. Republican Victory Predicted Gingrich predicted that Republicans will win control of both the House and the Senate in the fall election. He attacked proposed tax increases, saying “any tax increase is a job- killing measure and should be defeated” and described the Democratic leadership as a “secular, socialist machine.” Pawlenty said that if conservatives take power, “we need to do what we say we’re going to do.” Conservatives “need to go to Washington, D.C., and walk the walk.” The dissatisfaction fueling the primary races against McCain and other Republicans stems from the party’s record when it controlled Congress and the White House during most of former President George W. Bush’s first six years in office. “You are seeing the movement very consciously separating itself from the Republican Party,” said political consultant Craig Shirley , author of two books on President Ronald Reagan . “The movement dictates to the Republican Party, not the other way around.” Project Funding Under Republican congressional majorities, the number of earmarks, or local projects receiving federal funding, tripled to 12,852 in 2006 from 4,126 in 1994, according to the Congressional Research Service. Republicans also passed a new Medicare prescription drug program. When Bush took office in 2001, the federal budget had a $128 billion surplus; when he left in 2009, the annual deficit was projected to exceed $1 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office. “Ask yourself, who were the last people to break our hearts? The Republicans.” said former House Majority Leader Dick Armey , a Texas Republican who now heads FreedomWorks, a Washington-based advocacy group. “The last time you were jilted, did you go back to that person? Republicans don’t have credibility yet.” Armey’s group has endorsed Lee’s primary challenge to Utah Republican Senator Bob Bennett , who is seeking a third term and whose father served four Senate terms. “It’s very sad to me that the Republicans had the majority and yet look at what happened to the debt,” Lee said. “That’s why people need to be held accountable.” Florida Race The Club for Growth , a Washington-based group that pushes for lower taxes, endorsed Rubio over Governor Charlie Crist in Florida’s Republican primary for a Senate seat. Chist has been endorsed by National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn of Texas and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. “We are witnessing the single greatest political pushback in American history,” Rubio told the convention Feb. 18. “A long list of early establishment endorsements will not spare you a primary.” Club for Growth President Chris Chocola , a former Republican congressman from Indiana, questioned the party establishment’s endorsement of candidates such as Bennett and Crist, as well as its support for state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava in New York’s 23th Congressional District in a special election last year. Palin’s Backing Some Republicans, including 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin , backed Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman . The Scozzafava-Hoffman split led to Bill Owens winning the special election and becoming the first Democrat to represent New York’s northeast corner in the House in more than a century. Chocola told the convention he was skeptical that most Republican leaders “have learned the lessons of the 2006 and 2008 elections,” when the party lost House and Senate seats. “A lot of grassroots conservatives are wary of the Republican leadership,” said Larry Hart, government relations director for the American Conservative Union. “They felt betrayed.” Tea Party activists, a group of self-described supporters of limited government that formed during the past year, were among the 10,000 the organizers of the Conservative Political Action Conference said were attending. Tea Party members, who held their own convention earlier this month, said their support for Republican nominees wasn’t automatic. ‘Principles-Based’ The movement is “principles-based, not party-based,” said Mark Meckler of Sacramento, California, a co-founder and national coordinator of Tea Party Patriots . “It’s not about the political machine; it’s about the people.” Boehner, the House Republican leader , in his speech to the conservative conference pledged to operate Congress “differently than the way the House has been run under both Democrats and Republicans.” He also said he would focus on listening to conservative activists, not dictating to them. “The Republican Party should not attempt to co-opt the tea parties,” Boehner said in his speech at the conservative conference. “What we will do is respect them, listen to them and walk amongst them. The other party will never ever do that.” To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan D. Salant in Washington at jsalant@bloomberg.net .

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Fed Raises Discount Rate: Interest Rate Rises For Banks’ Emergency Loans

February 18, 2010

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve decided Thursday to boost the rate banks pay for emergency loans. The action is part of a broader move to pull back the extraordinary aid it provided to fight the financial crisis. The action won’t directly affect borrowing costs for millions of Americans. But with the worst of the crisis over, it brings the Fed’s main crisis lending program closer to normal. The Fed chose to bump up the so-called “discount” lending rate by one-quarter point to 0.75 percent. It takes effect Friday. The central bank said the step should not be seen as a signal that it will soon boost interest rates for consumers and businesses. It repeated its pledge to keep such rates at record-low levels for an “extended period” to foster the economic recovery. The Fed had signaled for weeks that a higher discount rate was coming, though the timing of Thursday’s decision caught some by surprise. It portrayed its action as moving its emergency program for banks closer to normal. The announcement came after the financial markets had closed. Investors saw it initially as a prelude to higher borrowing costs across the board. In after-hours trading, the dollar strengthened on the expectation of higher rates. Yields on two-year Treasury securities rose, and stock futures dipped. After the sell-off in stock futures, Pimco Managing Director Bill Gross warned investors not to overreact. “I’d accept the Fed at its word – that this isn’t a change in monetary policy or in the timing of it,” he said. “Calmer heads may prevail tomorrow.” T.J. Marta, a market strategist, said he thinks higher rates for American borrowers are still months away. But “I think one man’s normalization is another man’s tightening,” he said of investors’ initial anxiety. The Fed has kept the target range for its main interest rate – the federal funds rate – at between zero and 0.25 percent since December 2008. After the Fed’s action Thursday, economists said they still believe it won’t start to boost borrowing costs for Americans until later this year. Some don’t think it will happen until next year, given the fragile recovery. Chairman Ben Bernanke last week signaled the Fed is in no rush to boost rates. When the time does come, Bernanke said the Fed will likely start to tighten credit by raising the rate it pays banks on money they leave at the central bank. Doing so would raise rates tied to commercial banks’ prime rate and affect many consumer loans. That would mark a shift away from the federal funds rate, its main lever since the 1980s. Steering interest rates through the excess reserves rate, now at 0.25 percent, gives the Fed more control over money floating around the financial system. The Fed sets that rate directly; its funds rate is just a target. James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, saw the Fed’s move Thursday as testament to an improving economy. “This may be the bell ringing that the crisis is over,” Paulsen said. The big question over the next few days is whether investors will start selling Treasurys with maturities of two years or less, Paulsen said. Doing so would send yields higher. Savers would start seeing higher interest on their money market accounts. The economy is growing again, and financial conditions have improved. But unemployment is still near double digits. And demand for loans remains weak. Many ordinary Americans and small businesses have found it difficult to borrow. When credit virtually shut down starting in 2008, banks that wanted to borrow had nowhere to go except the Fed. Banks can now more easily tap private lending sources. As a result, the Fed feels more comfortable about boosting the rate banks pay on emergency loans. Because conditions have improved, the Fed also said it will shorten the length of loans drawn from its emergency lending program. It will return to the historical norm of overnight loans, effective March 18. During the crisis, the Fed had lengthened the loans to 30 days. Earlier this month, the Fed shut down a handful of programs to help banks and other companies access credit. Like those shutdowns, the action Thursday is “intended as a further normalization of the Federal Reserve’s lending facilities,” the Fed said. “The modifications are not expected to lead to tighter financial conditions for households and businesses and do not signal any change in the outlook for the economy or monetary policy,” the Fed said. Banks have scaled back their use of the Fed’s emergency “discount” loan window as conditions have improved. At the peak of the crisis in the fall of 2008, daily borrowing from the discount window reached $110 billion. Commercial banks averaged $14.3 billion in daily borrowing for the week that ended Wednesday, the Fed said in a report Thursday. That was down from $14.6 billion for the previous week. Congress has demanded the Fed identify the banks that draw on the emergency loans. The Fed has resisted. Bernanke and his colleagues have argued that identifying the banks that take out emergency loans could cause a run on the institution. Created by Congress in 1913 after a series of bank panics, the Fed acts as “lender of last resort” to banks that can’t borrow elsewhere. Its actions help stabilize the financial and economic systems. And its decisions on rates affect the ability of companies and individuals to borrow and spend. The wind-down of Fed programs earlier this month, most of which had fallen out of use, was little noticed. A bigger impact could be felt by the scheduled shut-down of the Fed’s program to buy mortgage securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That program is slated to end after March. The purchases of mortgage securities have lowered home-loan rates and bolstered the housing market. The Fed has held the door open to extending the program if the economy weakens. Some analysts fear that once the program ends, mortgage rates could rise, hurting the recovery in housing and the overall economy. Rates on 30-year mortgages averaged 4.93 percent this week, Freddie Mac reported. Unwinding the Fed’s stimulus is the biggest challenge for Bernanke in his second term, which began Feb. 1. Moving too soon could short-circuit the recovery. Waiting too long could unleash inflation and feed a speculative asset bubble. More insights into the Fed’s strategy will likely come when Bernanke testifies on Capitol Hill next week. David Rosenberg, chief economist at money manager Gluskin Sheff in Toronto, says the Fed’s decision to bump up the emergency lending rate for banks is psychological but still packs a punch. “The Fed is moving toward a new strategy of draining liquidity from the system,” he says. “Will the Fed be raising the Fed funds rate soon? No. But what happens when it stops buying mortgages or even starts selling? That could have a material impact on mortgage rates.” ___ AP Business Writers Bernard Condon and Tim Paradis in New York contributed to this report.

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Joanne Bamberger: Wasn’t the SEC Supposed to be the ‘Investor’s Advocate?’

February 17, 2010

Please accept my apologies for the rhetorical question. As someone who worked at the Securities and Exchange Commission for several years, I already know the answer to that question is, “yes.” Unfortunately, that mission has gone missing and seems to have been replaced by keeping Wall Street bankers afloat at the expense of those of us who were just trying to save for retirement and our kids’ college educations. When I worked there, first as an attorney in the Enforcement Division and then as Deputy Director of Public Affairs, I was excited about the work of the agency. There was a lot of personal satisfaction in knowing that we were trying to catch the “bad guys” who did their best to get rich on insider trading schemes, “cooking the books” or just outright lying to clients. When I was in the investigative trenches, I felt like I was really doing something to help others and that the SEC was an agency that tried to live up to its motto, even though it has historically been understaffed and underfunded. When I made the move into the Public Affairs office, I had more time to see things from a different angle, and it became all too clear to me that many influential lawmakers on Capitol Hill really weren’t worried about investors and were more concerned with lobbyists who worked for investment banking firms and big corporations who were regulated by the SEC. At the time, I thought maybe I was just getting too old for the job and that I’d become jaded as I watched those with money fight for legislation, while no one was really looking out for the investor. There was a lot of talk about how “disclosure” made everything an even playing field — an assertion that even the least educated investor would know was, if you’ll excuse me, a crock. I knew things were headed in a bad direction when Congress was able to repeal the laws that kept commercial banking (where we deposit our money) and investment banking separate. When Glass-Steagall was repealed, I had a bad feeling that all bets were off. The new Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act not only repealed the laws that kept us protected from the inherent greed on Wall Street, but it opened the floodgates for the Gordon Gekkos of the world . Those Gordon Geckos convinced a greedy and naive Congress that of course they could be trusted not to let greed overrun their investment houses and that of course they would always keep the investors’ interests as their primary focus. No need for all those burdensome regulations that cost so much money, they claimed. There were warnings during the process (read: Brooksley Born), but no one listened. There continue to be warnings (read: Elizabeth Warren) — the biggest one being the near meltdown of our whole economy — yet, there is still no one listening. The SEC has been badly weakened by Congress and now Congress blames the SEC for not keeping investors safe, not to mention the blame they also give to the alphabet soup of other institutions that are supposed to be watching over those who make their money on imagining ever-more convoluted schemes like credit-default swaps and mortgage-backed securities. A few on Capitol Hill are pushing for financial regulatory reform, but you can be assured the same investment banks that were saved, the same ones whose employees put us in the tank and are now getting fat bonuses, are the same ones lobbying again to make sure that people still believe that ‘greed is good.’ I’m glad Paul Volcker is higher up on President Obama’s radar screen these days than Tim ‘pay-no-attention-to-my past-links-to-Wall-Street’ Geithner. But Geithner has made it clear he doesn’t like those who oppose him (read: Shelia Bair). Again, as I’ve asked before — why are people willing to pay attention to a bunch of guys who now want tighter regulation, but brushed aside expert women who years ago who raised the same issues? I suppose that’s my second rhetorical question today. Joanne Bamberger is a Washington, D.C.-based writer, political analyst and new media consultant. She is the founder of the political blog, PunditMom , and contributes to MomsRising and MOMocrats blogs. Her book on political motherhood will be published this fall by Bright Sky Press.

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Florida surfs in : Family group saw a good opportunity in Myrtle Beach: Family group saw a good opportunity

February 13, 2010

Surf, a 216-unit apartment complex in Myrtle Beach after the developer defaulted on a construction loan. Tate Capital Real Estate Solutions LLC bought a construction loan note that Wood Partners had defaulted on in the fall. After buying the loan from

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Economic Recovery in Europe Unexpectedly Wilts After Stagnation in Germany

February 12, 2010

By Simone Meier Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) — Europe’s recovery almost stalled in the fourth quarter as waning spending and investment in Germany unexpectedly brought growth in the region’s largest economy to a halt. Gross domestic product in the 16-nation euro region rose 0.1 percent from the third quarter, when it gained 0.4 percent, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Economists forecast expansion of 0.3 percent, the median of 34 estimates in a Bloomberg survey showed. The recession in Greece deepened, with GDP falling 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter after a 0.5 percent slump in the previous three months. European governments are struggling to contain the fall-out from Greece’s budget crisis as they phase out the stimulus measures used to pull the economy out of a recession. As market turmoil pushes bond yields higher across southern Europe, the recovery is in danger of losing momentum. It’s “another piece of bad news for policymakers as they struggle to come up with a plan that soothes worries about the credit worthiness of the euro zone’s peripheral economies,” said Nick Kounis , chief European economist at Fortis Bank Nederland in Amsterdam. The recovery is “continuing, but at a snail’s pace.” Greek Debt The euro fell for a third day and was down 1 percent to $1.3558 as of 11:00 a.m. in London. German government bonds rose, pushing the yield on 10-year bunds down 3 basis points to 3.20 percent. The euro has fallen 7 percent in the last two months on concern that Greece’s fiscal problems will spread to other countries. From a year earlier, euro-area GDP declined a seasonally adjusted 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter. For the full year, the economy contracted 4 percent. Separate data showed that industrial production in the region fell 1.7 percent in December, the most in 10 months. The German economy stagnated in the fourth quarter after recording 0.7 percent growth in the previous three months, while Italian GDP fell 0.2 percent. France’s economic expansion accelerated to 0.6 percent from 0.2 percent. Greece today revised down its data for GDP for the first three quarters of 2009, indicating its recession was deeper than earlier thought. ‘Serious’ Europe’s governments face a growing dilemma as they seek to fortify recoveries at a time when rising sovereign-debt burdens threaten to hobble expansion. EU leaders yesterday ordered Greece to get its deficit under control and pledged “determined and coordinated action” to protect the currency region in a statement that stopped short of setting out concrete steps. “It’s too dangerous to try to call the bluff of the bond market,” said Rossa White , chief economist at Dublin-based securities firm Davy. “For clarity, the euro area will have to outline a backstop tied to much stricter enforcement of Greece’s consolidation plan.” With governments phasing out incentives and unemployment at 10 percent, the highest in more than 11 years, Europe’s recovery is showing signs of waning. Expansion in service and manufacturing industries slowed in January and investor confidence fell for the first time in seven months in February. Renault SA, France’s second-largest carmaker, on Feb. 11 forecast a 10 percent contraction in European auto demand this year. Chief Executive Officer Carlos Ghosn said there’s “still a lot of uncertainty and volatility.” Bernd Scheifele , CEO of HeidelbergCement AG, is planning an additional 300 million euros in cost cuts this year after he said on Feb. 10 that the company’s markets “showed no recovery in the fourth quarter.” Export Boost Still, central banks have begun to scale back some of the measures introduced during the recession. The European Central Bank is phasing out its emergency lending programs, while the U.S. Federal Reserve has said it may raise the interest rate paid on deposits to slow lending. China today ordered banks to set aside more deposits as reserves for the second time in a month to cool the world’s fastest-growing major economy. Weaker domestic demand may be countered by an export boost from expansion in Asian economies. The International Monetary Fund last month forecast 2010 economic growth of 9.7 percent and 7.8 percent in China and India, respectively, compared with 1.6 percent expansion in the euro area and 2.4 percent in the U.S. The IMF sees the global economy expanding 3.9 percent. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG , the world’s largest maker of luxury cars, forecast on Feb. 5 that China deliveries may increase at least 10 percent this year. “The paltry pace of fourth-quarter growth makes crystal clear that the euro zone economy cannot yet stand on its own feet.,” said Martin Van Vliet , an economist at ING Group in Amsterdam. “That said, it is premature, in our view, to presume that the recent soft patch in the recovery will persist.” To contact the reporter on this story: Simone Meier in Dublin at smeier@bloombert.net

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Europe’s Economic Recovery Unexpectedly Wilts After Stagnation in Germany

February 12, 2010

By Simone Meier Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) — Europe’s recovery almost stalled in the fourth quarter as waning spending and investment in Germany unexpectedly brought growth in the region’s largest economy to a halt. Gross domestic product in the 16-nation euro region rose 0.1 percent from the third quarter, when it gained 0.4 percent, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Economists forecast expansion of 0.3 percent, the median of 34 estimates in a Bloomberg survey showed. The recession in Greece deepened, with GDP falling 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter after a 0.5 percent slump in the previous three months. European governments are struggling to contain the fall-out from Greece’s budget crisis as they phase out the stimulus measures used to pull the economy out of a recession. As market turmoil pushes bond yields higher across southern Europe, the recovery is in danger of losing momentum. “Last year, markets asked for stimulus measures and now they’re asking governments to cut their deficits,” said Sylvain Broyer , chief euro-region economist at Natixis in Frankfurt. “There’s a risk of aggressive budget cuts, hurting an expansion. We’re still far from a self-sustained recovery.” Greek Debt The euro fell for a third day and was down 0.9 percent to $1.3569 as of 10:04 a.m. in London. It’s fallen 7 percent in the last two months on concern that Greece’s fiscal problems will spread to other countries. Greece needs to sell 53 billion euros ($73 billion) of debt this year, equivalent to about 20 percent of its GDP, to finance the EU’s largest budget deficit. From a year earlier, euro-area GDP declined a seasonally adjusted 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter. For the full year, the economy contracted 4 percent. Separate data showed that industrial production in the region fell 1.7 percent in December, the most in 10 months. The German economy stagnated in the fourth quarter after recording 0.7 percent growth in the previous three months, while Italian GDP fell 0.2 percent. France’s economic expansion accelerated to 0.6 percent from 0.2 percent. In Spain, the economy shrank for a seventh straight quarter in the three months through December. ‘Serious’ Europe’s governments face a growing dilemma as they seek to fortify recoveries at a time when rising sovereign-debt burdens threaten to hobble expansion. EU leaders yesterday ordered Greece to get its deficit under control and pledged “determined and coordinated action” to protect the currency region. “Greece will have to implement fiscal austerity measures and get public finances back in order,” said Alan McQuaid , chief economist at Bloxham Stockbrokers in Dublin. “There’s a recognition that this is serious.” With governments phasing out incentives and unemployment at 10 percent, the highest in more than 11 years, Europe’s recovery is showing signs of waning. Expansion in service and manufacturing industries slowed in January and investor confidence fell for the first time in seven months in February. Renault SA, France’s second-largest carmaker, on Feb. 11 forecast a 10 percent contraction in European auto demand this year. Chief Executive Officer Carlos Ghosn said there’s “still a lot of uncertainty and volatility.” Bernd Scheifele , CEO of HeidelbergCement AG, is planning an additional 300 million euros in cost cuts this year after he said on Feb. 10 that the company’s markets “showed no recovery in the fourth quarter.” Export Boost Weaker domestic demand may be countered by an export boost from expansion in Asian economies. The International Monetary Fund last month forecast 2010 economic growth of 9.7 percent and 7.8 percent in China and India, respectively, compared with 1.6 percent expansion in the euro area and 2.4 percent in the U.S. The IMF sees the global economy expanding 3.9 percent. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG , the world’s largest maker of luxury cars, forecast on Feb. 5 that China deliveries may increase at least 10 percent this year. The ECB on Feb. 5 kept borrowing costs at a record low of 1 percent to bolster the recovery. President Jean-Claude Trichet said on that day that the euro-area economy will experience only “moderate” economic expansion this year. The statistics office is scheduled to release a breakdown of fourth-quarter GDP next month. To contact the reporter on this story: Simone Meier in Dublin at smeier@bloombert.net

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Congress Leaving Unemployment Benefits Extension To The Last Minute

February 11, 2010

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) is paring back a jobs bill proposal unveiled earlier on Thursday by the Senate Finance Committee, dropping an extension of unemployment insurance and COBRA health insurance subsidies for laid-off workers. The Senate is taking a break next week, so that stuff will have to wait until the end of the month — the last moment before the previous extension runs out. “State agencies are going to start sending out letters next week letting people know that their benefits are going to expire,” said Judy Conti, a lobbyist for the National Employment Law Project. So, even though it’s entirely likely that Congress will pass an extension before Feb. 28 — barring another major blizzard — some people will nevertheless receive letters telling them they’re not eligible for the next “tier” of benefits. Last year’s stimulus bill provided up to 53 additional weeks of federally-funded unemployment benefits (broken into several tiers) and a 65 percent subsidy of COBRA health insurance. When those provisions expired at the end of December, Congress scrambled to extend them another three months. If they’re allowed to expire at the end of the month, 1.2 million people will exhaust their unemployment benefits in March. “I think it’s disturbing because there are four tiers of emergency unemployment compensation benefits, and if you’re on a given tier, you only have a few weeks if the program isn’t extended… Individuals could look at running out of benefits in a week or several weeks,” said Rich Hobbie, director of the National Association of State Workforce Agencies. Aside from the anxiety the situation creates for the unemployed, Hobbie said it’s a huge administrative burden for state agencies. Norm Isotalo, spokesman for the Michigan Unemployment Insurance Agency, said Congress’s dithering does indeed make work for his office. “February 28 is rapidly approaching and we still don’t have any certainty if the ending date is going to be extended, so the agency is preparing to wind down the payments of extended federally-funded unemployment benefits,” Isolato told HuffPost. “But on the other hand, we have to be ready to pull the plug on these wind-down efforts if Congress acts. It could be a lot of wind-down work that all may go for naught if Congress extends the deadline date for these programs. And of course we hope that they do.” Isotalo said that even if Congress interrupts his agency’s wind-down work at the last second, unemployed Michiganders would not see an interruption of their unemployment checks. NELP is frustrated that Congress insists on taking a piecemeal approach to extending the benefits (the extensions do not allow people to stay on unemployment insurance for longer than already provided by the stimulus bill — they allow people who’ve been laid off more recently access to the same additional tiers of financial support given to people laid off last year). The piecemeal approach guarantees that every extension will happen at the last second. “It will always be held victim to a blizzard, to partisan politics, a flood in the spring, elections in the fall,” said Judy Conti of NELP, which would rather Congress extend benefits for a full year. “What’s going on in Congress is an ever-changing game. The American people and communities surviving on these unemployment benefits can’t be held victim to this process.”

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Stacy Mitchell: Small Business Lending: Big Banks vs. Small Banks

February 9, 2010

The New Rules Project, in partnership with HuffPost’s Move Your Money campaign, is using its Community Banking Initiative to get out the word that banking locally can put the power back in the hands of individuals and communities, rather than Wall Street’s CEOs. Just before Thanksgiving last year, the U.S. Small Business Administration’s flagship loan program, which provides banks with a government guarantee of up to 90 percent of the value of loans made to small businesses that fall just shy of qualifying for a standard bank loan, ran out of money. SBA loan guarantees are arguably one of the most efficient uses of stimulus funds. The $325 million included in the Recovery Act of last February covered the cost of backing $16.5 billion in loans to small businesses. Yet, as loan volume spiked in the fall, reaching pre-recession levels, Congress let the pipeline run dry. Within weeks, more than 1,000 small businesses found themselves in loan purgatory: their loans had been approved, but banks couldn’t release the funds. Such a turn of events seems unconscionable amid a recession. But it’s about to happen again. An additional $125 million appropriated in December will run out toward the end of February unless the Senate moves quickly to approve legislation that would support SBA loan guarantees through the end of the year. These days, all eyes are on small businesses, and for good reason. They’ve created the majority of new jobs over the last decade and, in past downturns, it’s been small business growth that has pulled us out of recession. The ability of small businesses to finance growth is, in turn, largely dependent on the capacity of local community banks to lend them money. Although small and mid-sized banks ($10 billion or less in assets) control only 22 percent of all bank assets, they account for 54 percent of small business lending. Big banks, meanwhile, allocate relatively little of their resources to small businesses. The largest 20 banks, which now command 57 percent of all bank assets, devote only 18 percent of their commercial loan portfolios to small business. (See our graphs for more detail.) As big banks have consolidated the market, small businesses have had a harder time obtaining loans. In a study published in 2007 in the Journal of Banking and Finance , Steven G. Craig and Pauline Hardee examined different regions of the country and concluded, “Credit access in markets dominated by big banks tends to be lower for small businesses than in markets with a relatively larger share of small banks.” Other research has found that, all else being equal, regions with a robust network of small, local banks are home to significantly more small firms. Why is it that community banks do so much more small business lending than their big competitors? One reason is that big banks rely on computer models to determine whether to make a loan. Because the local market conditions and the circumstances surrounding each borrower and his or her enterprise are so incredibly varied, this standardized approach does not work very well when it comes to understanding the nuances of risk associated with a particular small business. By drawing on qualitative information – getting to know the borrower, learning about the business, and understanding the local market – small banks can better assess risk and successfully make loans to a wider group of small businesses. “We don’t use credit scoring, where certain parameters about the business are put in and the computer says yes or no. We still rely on a thorough understanding of the financial information that the borrower brings us. You get to know the borrower and understand what the numbers mean in the context of that business,” said John Kimball, vice president of Park Midway Bank, a $272 million-asset bank in St. Paul, Minnesota. Small banks regularly finance businesses that big banks have turned away. Andrew Atwood, who sought financing last year to expand his auto repair business in Phoenix, was rejected by seven large banks. “It was a nightmare,” he said. “They had a ‘you’re lucky we’re even looking at you’ kind of attitude.” Then a customer introduced him to Sonoran Bank, a small, locally owned bank. “From the get-go they treated us like your next door neighbor,” he said. Not only did Atwood get the loan, but the rate, 5.25 percent, was lower than the 6.75 percent the big banks would have offered had he been approved. At Sonoran, Atwood dealt directly with a senior loan officer empowered to approve his loan. This is another significant difference between small and big banks. “The decision-makers are at the community level,” explained Fidel Gutierrez, senior vice president of Los Alamos National Bank, a 47-year-old locally owned bank in New Mexico. “At our bank, the bank president and the senior loan officers are visiting face-to-face with the borrowers. At larger banks, the person you deal with may take the loan request, but they do not make the decision.” Because big banks are run from afar, it’s impossible, or at least very expensive, for them to obtain the kind of qualitative information about risk that local bankers pick up naturally by being part of the community and interacting with borrowers. As a result, there are no economies of scale in small business lending; just the opposite. Small banks are, on average, more efficient small business lenders and make a better return on their assets. All of this makes plain the fallacy of thirty years of banking policy that has fueled mergers and consolidation on the grounds that bigger banks mean greater efficiency and more growth. Banking consolidation has in fact constricted the flow of credit to the very businesses most likely to create new jobs. It’s no surprise then that the money taxpayers have spent over the last 16 months shoring up big banks has done nothing to free up credit for small businesses. To do that, we need to focus on expanding the lending capacity of small banks. The Obama Administration has finally grasped this, putting forward a flurry of proposals in recent weeks aimed at increasing the flow of loans from small banks to small businesses. Although some community banks will benefit from Obama’s plan to make $30 billion in low-cost capital available to them, for most small banks, the issue right now is not a lack of capital. Most small banks are in pretty good shape and have money to lend. The problem is that loan demand is down and many of the small businesses that are seeking loans are not creditworthy by standard measures. Their cash flow has been battered by the recession. Many no longer have equity in their homes or businesses to borrow against. Through no fault of their own, small businesses are operating in an economy in which they are more likely to fail and thus constitute much riskier investments. This is where SBA loan guarantees come in. They allow banks to absorb more risk. “For a bank, if more than one or two percent of your loans go bad, you’re out of business,” explained Kimball of Park Midway Bank. “The SBA guarantees allow you to get that into a range of 5-8 percent. It allows you a lot more leeway in terms of risk.” While SBA-backed loans constitute only about 8 percent of overall small business lending, they account for 40 percent of long-term loans and thus provide an essential source of patient capital for growing small businesses. Under the SBA’s flagship 7(a) lending program, which backs loans of up to $2 million that small businesses can use for working capital, equipment or expansion, the payback period is 7 to 25 years, a longer term than most standard bank loans. In the 12 months before the credit crisis, some 2,500 banks, mostly small community banks, made over 69,000 loans under the 7(a) program. Three-quarters were for amounts under $150,000, one-third went to minorities, and nearly 40 percent funded start-ups. In good economic times, fees paid by borrowers cover the cost of the program, including defaults. When the credit markets froze in the fall of 2008, the volume of SBA-backed bank loans plummeted to about half of normal. Big banks, especially, sharply cut back their lending. SBA loan volume at JP Morgan Chase, for example, fell 66 percent. The Recovery Act sought to bolster 7(a) lending by expanding the maximum guarantee from 75 to 90 percent of the loan and waiving the fees charged to borrowers. It worked: monthly loan volume climbed from $700 million during the darkest months of the crisis to an average of over $1.5 billion during the last six months – a higher volume than in the year before the collapse. Yet, despite the fact that SBA loan guarantees effectively and inexpensively address one of the most debilitating aspects of this recession – reduced credit for small businesses – Congress has allowed the program to run dry once already and is on the verge of doing so again in the next few weeks. Obama has called for extending the higher guarantees and fee waiver through the end of the year. The House has passed a bill to do so. And now, like so much of the legislative agenda, further action depends on the Senate.

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Senate Jobs Bill Stalled

February 8, 2010

Politico reports that Senate Democrats “will miss their self-imposed deadline for bringing a jobs bill to the floor Monday,” and while DC’s major snowstorm may have played some role in the delay, “it seems unlikely that Democrats would have been ready to proceed Monday, anyway.” Although both parties say Washington should be focused on jobs — January’s unemployment rate came in Friday at 9.7 percent — Democrats can’t move a bill without 60 votes, and they control only 59. And while the storm made negotiations more difficult, aides and lawmakers say there were substantive problems, too — and that the difficulty of reaching agreement even on a relatively small jobs bill, packed with tax cuts backed by Republicans, illustrates the tough partisan politics of the Senate as it moves toward the elections this fall. Aides say they still don’t believe the bill will receive significant support from Republicans. Read the full story here . Despite the slight drop in the unemployment rate in January, “the government now estimates 8.4 million jobs vanished in the Great Recession. And economists say the nation will be lucky to get back 1.5 million of them this year . They also warn it will take until the middle of the decade for the job market to return to normal.” From the AP: The economy is growing, and normally job creation would be strengthening. But the job market is weighed down by employers who remain slow to hire because consumers are not spending enough. Companies worry about their prospects once government stimulus aid fades. They also fret about possibly higher costs related to taxes or health care measures from Congress and statehouses. As the New York Times noted on Monday, stimulus funds that allowed states avoid laying off many of its employees are now drying up . Federal stimulus money has helped avoid drastic cuts at public schools in most parts of the nation, at least so far. But with the federal money running out, many of the nation’s schools are approaching what officials are calling a “funding cliff.” Congress included about $100 billion for education in the stimulus law last year to cushion the recession’s impact on schools and to help fuel an economic recovery. New studies show that many states will spend all or nearly all that is left between now and the end of this school term.

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Goldman Sachs Bonuses: CEO Lloyd Blankfein Gets $9 Million Stock Bonus For 2009

February 5, 2010

NEW YORK — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. CEO Lloyd Blankfein is getting a $9 million stock bonus for 2009, a modest payday by Wall Street standards that appears aimed at quelling criticism of the bank’s compensation practices. Blankfein will receive more than 58,000 shares of restricted stock that can’t be cashed in for five years, the bank said in a securities filing Friday. Blankfein will receive no cash as part of his bonus. Blankfein’s bonus was less than some had expected. But it reflects Wall Street’s changing pay culture. Several banks are paying their CEO restricted stock and adopting clawback provisions in response to a furor over outsized paydays at financial institutions that helped push the economy into a recession and then later took billions in federal bailouts. Still, Blankfein led Goldman to a stellar 2009 performance, and some had predicted his bonus would range between $15-$20 million. “It was certainly less than expected,” said Mark Borges, a principal with Compensia Inc., a Northern California compensation consulting firm. “While the fact that he’s making this much won’t sit well with people out of work, it seems Goldman is being sensitive to the political considerations and optics of this amount.” “It’s almost as if he’s taking a bullet for everyone else,” Borges added. Earlier Friday, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said CEO Jamie Dimon received a $16 million stock bonus, making him the highest paid CEO among the nation’s largest banks that have announced their pay plans. Morgan Stanley CEO James P. Gorman received a stock bonus valued at $8.1 million for 2009. Gorman was co-president of the bank for that period. He replaced John Mack as CEO last month. Mack, who remains chairman, received no bonus for 2009 or the previous two years. Goldman and JPMorgan have emerged from the financial crisis as two of the nation’s strongest banks, earning billions in profits while rivals including Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. have suffered losses. Still, neither JPMorgan nor Goldman have escaped scrutiny over employee pay packages. Under Blankfein’s leadership, Goldman earned a record $4.79 billion profit in the last three months of 2009. But Goldman bolstered its fourth-quarter profits by slashing the size of its bonus pool in a move aimed at quashing criticism of outsized paydays at elite New York investment banks. Blankfein received compensation valued at $42.9 million during fiscal 2008, virtually all of it coming from stock and options awarded for his previous year’s performance. He got no performance-based pay for his work in fiscal 2008, when Goldman reported its first quarterly loss since becoming a public company and its stock fell more than 60 percent amid the deepening credit crisis. Aside from not being able to sell the stock for five years, Goldman’s top 30 executives’ stock awards could be taken back by the bank in cases where the employees took too large a risk or failed to raise concerns about risk in the company. Under JPMorgan’s new pay structure, Dimon will be restricted from selling 75 percent of his total accumulated JPMorgan stock until he leaves the company, spokesman Joe Evangelisti said. In addition, JPMorgan’s board can recoup the entire 2009 stock bonus under any circumstances, Evangelisti said. JPMorgan received $25 billion in bailout money in the fall of 2008 at the peak of the credit crisis. It paid back that money in the middle of 2009. Dimon received no bonus for 2008. He received a $27.8 million bonus for 2007, just before the financial crisis began to accelerate. Since then, JPMorgan has solidified its status as one of the nation’s top banks. Dimon led the bank to four profitable quarters in 2009, including a $3.28 billion profit in the final three months of the year. Even as furor over bank bonuses has grown, JPMorgan increased pay for its workers in 2009. The average pay per employee rose to $121,124 in 2009 from $101,110 a year earlier. The average pay in the investment banking division was about $380,000. Dimon’s and Blankfein’s stock compensation was disclosed in a securities filing called a Form 4. While those stock-based awards were to reward the CEOs for their work in 2009, those awards will not be included in the calculation of total compensation that the companies will present in their annual proxy statements due out later this year. The pay amounts included in the proxies will only reflect what was granted and paid in the fiscal year 2009. The stock awards Dimon and Blankfein just received will be included in calculations of their total pay for 2010. ___ AP Business Writer Rachel Beck contributed to this report from New York.

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Heinz New Ketchup Packet Gives You A Choice: Dunk Or Squeeze

February 5, 2010

For decades there was only one way to use the humble ketchup packet, and it was messy. Now, fast-food lovers have a choice: the traditional squeeze play – or the option to dunk. You want fries with that, in the minivan? No problem. The new ketchup pack, unveiled Thursday by H.J. Heinz Co., is shaped like a shallow cup. The top can be peeled back for dipping, or the end can be torn off for squeezing. It holds three times as much ketchup as a traditional packet. Customers at a McDonald’s in Covington, Ky., said they would welcome a redesign. “You use up a lot of ketchup now with the packets, I always get extra ones,” said Skyler McDermott, 29. “Maybe now you won’t have to use your teeth to open them.” Heinz struggled for years to develop a container that lets diners dip or squeeze, and to produce it at a cost acceptable to its restaurant customers. “The packet has long been the bane of our consumers,” said Dave Ciesinski, vice president of Heinz Ketchup. “The biggest complaint is there is no way to dip and eat it on-the-go.” Designers found that what worked at a table didn’t work where many people use ketchup packets: in the car. So two years ago, Heinz bought a used minivan for the design team members so they could give their ideas a real road test. The team studied what each passenger needed. The driver wanted something that could sit on the armrest. Passengers wanted the choice of squeezing or dunking. Moms everywhere wanted a packet that held enough ketchup for the meal and didn’t squirt onto clothes so easily. Heinz is rolling out the new packs this fall at select fast-food restaurants nationwide. It will continue to sell the traditional packets. Whether restaurants buy the new packets will depend on cost, experts say. “One of the top uses of ketchup in this country is on french fries,” said Harry Balzer, vice president of the research firm NPD Group. “One of the patterns of behavior in this difficult climate that continues to do OK is ordering and eating in your car.” The company said it is still working out prices with its customers. But the new packet should cost only a little more, even though it holds much more ketchup. Heinz is by far the biggest ketchup maker. About half of its ketchup is sold in stores and the other half is sold to the food service industry through its exclusive contracts with chains like Burger King and Wendy’s. McDonald’s, the nation’s largest burger chain, does only limited business with Heinz. Heinz sells more than 11 billion ketchup packets every year. But neither the ketchup maker nor the major chains would say who plans to carry the new design. Morningstar restaurant analyst R.J. Hottovy said if restaurants do adopt the design, the transition will likely be gradual. “It has to be proven that this is something that saves money on the behalf of restaurants or cuts down on waste,” he said. “It looks interesting, but ultimately you have to provide something of value to the restaurants.” Customers may force the issue. Rants about the messy packs have helped spawn hundreds of anti-ketchup-packet groups on Facebook. Matt Kurtz, a 22-year-old student in New York, has drawn 269 members to the group he started after he ripped open a packet too quickly and spilled it on his jeans while on a road trip two years ago. “That’s when I said ‘There has to be a better way.’” These issues come as no surprise to Heinz’s Ciesinski. “We created the packet in 1968,” he said. “Consumer complaints started around 1969.” ___ AP Business Writer Dan Sewell in Cincinnati contributed to this report.

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`Tony Soprano’ Takes on `Washington Insider’ for Obama’s Old Senate Seat

February 3, 2010

By John McCormick Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) — Republicans greeted the Democratic primary winner for the U.S. Senate seat once held by President Barack Obama in Illinois with an online video called “Making Tony Soprano Proud.” Democrats congratulated the Republican victor by calling him “a Washington insider who wants to return to the failed policies that created the economic mess we now face.” Obama’s adopted home state was the wrong place to look for bipartisanship in the opening hours of a general election campaign that will have national implications because of the seat’s previous occupant. Democrat Alexi Giannoulias , the Illinois treasurer since 2007, will face Republican Mark Kirk , a five-term congressman from Chicago’s northern suburbs. “Come November, congressman, your days as a Washington insider are over,” Giannoulias, 33, a presidential friend and basketball buddy, said in his victory speech last night. Kirk in his speech set the stage for the “Sopranos” ad when he attacked corruption surrounding Illinois Democrats since the state legislature removed Governor Rod Blagojevich from office in January 2009. Federal prosecutors have accused Blagojevich of trying to sell Obama’s Senate seat to the highest bidder, among other charges. “Over the last year, a quiet despair has descended on the state of Illinois: a governor arrested, a senator’s seat disgraced, corruption rampant, unemployment rising and families struggling,” Kirk said. “The people of Illinois now see the arrogance of a one-party state.” Bookmaker Loans Giannoulias, whose family bank has given loans to a bookmaker as well as convicted Illinois influence peddler Antoin “Tony” Rezko , led Kirk 42 percent to 34 percent in a survey taken Jan. 22-25 by Public Policy Polling. The poll had a margin of error of 3 percentage points. A moderate on social issues and an intelligence officer in the U.S. Navy Reserve, Kirk, 50, is seeking to replace Senator Roland Burris , a Democrat who decided against running for the seat following his controversial appointment by Blagojevich in December 2008. Illinois held the first primary of a midterm congressional election year that will prove critical to Obama’s political standing and agenda. While the White House tried to persuade Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan to run for the Senate seat, David Axelrod , a senior adviser to the president, told reporters Jan. 25 that Obama will be “fully supportive” of whoever is the Democratic nominee. Tight Race In the battle for the Democratic nomination for governor, incumbent Patrick Quinn , who replaced Blagojevich, led 50.4 percent to 49.6 percent over state Comptroller Dan Hynes , according to an Associated Press tally that included 99 percent of the state’s precincts. “If democracy means anything, it means we need to count all the votes,” Hynes said early today. “There are thousands of ballots that haven’t been counted.” A short time later, Quinn claimed victory. “The time for fighting is over,” Quinn said. “We have won this election.” State senators Kirk Dillard and Bill Brady remained in a virtual tie in the Republican primary for governor, separated by 751 votes with 99 percent of precincts counted in the AP’s tally. Dillard backed Obama’s presidential candidacy, while Brady opposes the administration’s proposal to buy an almost vacant state prison to house detainees now held in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Fiscal Mess The winner of this fall’s contest to be the state’s top executive will earn the right to deal with some of the nation’s worst fiscal problems. Illinois’ two-year budget deficit is at least $10 billion and unemployment is 10.8 percent, above the national average of 10 percent. Only California has a worse bond rating among U.S. states. Hynes, 41, and Quinn, 61, who was previously lieutenant governor, took their debate during the closing days of the campaign to the state’s large black community. The charges and counter-charges involved Quinn’s dismissal from a city job about a quarter century ago by Chicago’s first black mayor, Harold Washington , and whether Hynes ignored the destruction of remains at a historically black cemetery where Emmett Till , the civil rights-era murder victim, is buried. Ethan Hastert, son of former U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert , lost to Randy Hultgren for the Republican nomination for the congressional seat west of Chicago that his father held, according to the AP. The seat is now occupied by Democrat Bill Foster . After Brown The Illinois balloting follows a Jan. 19 special election in Massachusetts where Republican Scott Brown invigorated his party by winning the U.S. Senate seat formerly held by the late Democrat Edward Kennedy . Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele said Jan. 29 during his party’s winter meeting in Hawaii that the Senate seat in Illinois will be a top Republican target. “We began 2010 in the backyard of President Barack Obama, where he was born,” he said in Honolulu. “We will end the year, 2010, in Illinois taking his Senate seat.” The seat is one of five now held by Democrats that is rated as a “tossup” by the non-partisan Cook Political Report , based in Washington. Robert Gibbs , the White House press secretary, told reporters on Feb. 1 that the president and first lady Michelle Obama both voted by absentee ballot in Illinois. He didn’t reveal their candidate preferences. Broadway Bound Giannoulias was forced to answer questions during the final weeks of the campaign about his role at Broadway Bank in Chicago and his handling of the state’s Bright Start college savings program. Giannoulias is a former senior loan officer and vice president at the bank his family opened in 1979. Former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman , 42, sought to make the family bank a liability, and regulators provided new fodder for those charges last week. The $1.2 billion community bank agreed to boost reserves for bad loans and halt paying dividends without regulatory approval, according to an order from state and federal agencies signed Jan. 26. The bank’s board of directors also must establish “well-defined and reasonable risk limits” and hire an outside party to assess qualifications of senior executive officers. The bank suffers from a commercial real estate delinquency rate of 21.7 percent, compared with a U.S. average of 8.3 percent, according to an analysis compiled for Bloomberg News by Foresight Analytics , an Oakland, California-based research firm. Giannoulias, who helped Obama tap Chicago’s Greek-American community for campaign contributions during his U.S. Senate and presidential bids, has said he now owns 3.6 percent of the bank and shouldn’t be held accountable for financial challenges it faces because of bad real estate loans. To contact the reporter on this story: John McCormick in Chicago at jmccormick16@bloomberg.net .

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Obama Terror Policies Make Democrats Vulnerable at Polls, Republicans Say

February 3, 2010

By Justin Blum Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) — Republicans say they see weakness in President Barack Obama’s approach to fighting terrorism — and a winning issue for themselves in the November congressional elections. While Republicans have criticized Obama’s national-security policies since he took office, the intensity has picked up in recent weeks. They have focused on the administration’s handling of the attempted Christmas bombing of a Northwest Airlines flight and the government’s plans to try terrorism suspects in civilian courts. In the last month alone, the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, Jeff Sessions of Alabama, issued at least 15 statements assailing Obama’s policies for combating terrorism. He said Democrats can expect more of the same as the elections approach. If Obama and his administration “persist in the arguments they’re making, which are not sound legally or politically, I think any good candidate is going to raise it,” Sessions said in an interview. “It’s a very large, substantive issue.” Republicans said targeting Obama’s approach could improve the party’s prospects in November, when all 435 House seats and at least 36 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election. Polling showed that voter unease over terrorism contributed to Republican Scott Brown’s victory in a Jan. 19 election for the Massachusetts seat of the late Democratic Senator Edward M. Kennedy , said Neil Newhouse , a Republican pollster who worked for Brown. ‘A Major Issue’ It’s “a major issue that motivates voters,” Representative Lamar Smith of Texas, the top Republican on the House Judiciary Committee , said in an interview. Americans “will vote for people who are strong on protecting American lives.” Obama devoted part of his Jan. 27 State of the Union speech to showing he’s focused on terrorist threats. “Let’s put aside the schoolyard taunts about who’s tough,” Obama said. The administration has been “filling unacceptable gaps” uncovered by the failed Christmas attack with better airline security, he said, adding that hundreds of al-Qaeda fighters have been killed or captured in the last year. Former Vice President Dick Cheney has repeatedly faulted Obama’s plans to close the Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, prison for suspected terrorists and his rejection of waterboarding, or simulated drowning, in interrogations. 9/11 Suspects In the last week, Obama has come under fire from Republicans and some Democrats for a plan to try suspects in the Sept. 11 attacks in civilian court in lower Manhattan. A bipartisan group of nine senators, led by Republican Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, yesterday proposed legislation banning government funds from being used to try Khalid Sheikh Mohammed , the self-proclaimed mastermind of the attacks, and four co-defendants in a civilian federal court. The lawmakers said the suspects should face a military tribunal at Guantanamo. The administration is examining other trial venues after lawmakers and New York officials including Mayor Michael Bloomberg objected to holding it in Manhattan. The mayor is founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP. Republicans said the Massachusetts vote, along with a nationwide poll by National Public Radio, indicate the issue is resonating. Respondents were almost evenly split on the question of whether Obama’s policies have made the U.S. less safe. The poll of 800 likely voters conducted Jan. 20-23 had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points. “It’s a good potential issue to use in our fall campaigns,” said Newhouse. Attempted Bombing Republicans have focused on the administration’s handling of Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab , accused of carrying explosives on the Dec. 25 Detroit-bound flight. Sessions and 21 other Republican senators sent a letter to Obama saying Abdulmutallab shouldn’t be tried in civilian court. They criticized authorities for reading him his rights and pursuing a criminal case, saying it may have “resulted in a missed opportunity to collect timely intelligence.” After the plane landed, Federal Bureau of Investigation agents interrogated him and obtained intelligence, according to a Justice Department statement . He was read Miranda rights after his interrogation, a delay allowed when there’s an imminent threat, according to the department. Abdulmutallab has been providing information in recent days, an administration official said yesterday, speaking on condition of anonymity. ‘Systemic Failure’ Obama said there was a “systemic failure” that allowed a suspect linked to an al-Qaeda group to board the plane. Still, the administration said there’s no indication any additional information would have been extracted in the military-justice system. Republicans are trying to “exploit al-Qaeda for political purposes,” said Ken Gude , associate director of the international rights and responsibility program at the Center for American Progress , a Washington-based research group. Gude cited a fundraising letter sent by Representative Pete Hoekstra of Michigan, the top Republican on the intelligence committee . It described the Obama administration as “weak-kneed liberals who have recently tried to bring Guantanamo Bay terrorists right here to Michigan!” The administration needs to do more to sell its record to the public, Gude said. He said officials should highlight efforts to close Guantanamo and try terror suspects in civilian court because it’s “universally respected as a fair and legitimate forum” as opposed to military commissions, which are “closely tied with the worst excesses of the Bush administration and Guantanamo.” To contact the reporter on this story: Justin Blum in Washington at jblum4@bloomberg.net

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Financial Rescue to Cost Taxpayers Less Than Expected, TARP Watchdog Says

January 31, 2010

By Brendan Murray Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program to rescue the financial system probably will cost taxpayers much less than first predicted, according to a watchdog monitoring the $700 billion effort. “There are clear signs that aspects of the financial system are far more stable than they were at the height of the crisis in the fall of 2008,” a report from TARP Special Inspector General Neil Barofsky to Congress said yesterday. “It now appears that the ultimate cost of TARP to the American taxpayer, while still substantial, might be significantly less than initially estimated.” Barofsky’s quarterly audit is more upbeat about the program’s near-term prospects to recoup taxpayers’ money than an October report in which he said the final cost could be “substantial.” His latest report said TARP is entering a transition as financial aid for banks including Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. is recouped. While the audit is welcome news for the American taxpayer, it also says the program has its share of shortcomings. There’s been “little fundamental change” in executive compensation at companies that benefited from TARP, according to the report. Because of the subsidies, some of the biggest banks are “even larger,” and government help for the housing market risks “re-inflating that bubble” that was at the heart of the financial market collapse, the report said. “Even if TARP saved our financial system from driving off a cliff back in 2008, absent meaningful reform, we are still driving on the same winding mountain road, but this time in a faster car,” the report said. Longer term, the U.S. needs a better way to deal with financial crises, Barofsky’s report said. ‘Moral Hazard’ “The substantial costs of TARP — in money, moral hazard effects on the market, and government credibility — will have been for naught if we do nothing to correct the fundamental problems in our financial system and end up in a similar or even greater crisis in two, or five, or 10 years,” it said. Barofsky has also expanded investigations into misconduct related to the financial-industry bailout, including insider trading, accounting violations, mortgage fraud, public corruption and money laundering. The number of opened cases by Barofsky’s office increased by 41 percent in the fourth quarter. Some 25 criminal and civil probes were started in the quarter, and there were 77 total active cases. Through last year’s third quarter, the Washington- based office opened 61 cases with 54 active, Barofsky said at the time. Next Phase The next phase of TARP will focus on foreclosure mitigation, small-business lending and support for asset-backed securities markets, the report said. Banks are able to raise capital privately again and the Treasury Department is profiting from some TARP investments, it said. Even though money is returning to the Treasury through repayments, dividends and interest, moral hazard remains because investors and companies still see the government as a backstop against failure from excessive risk-taking, Barofsky’s report said. “The market is more convinced than ever that the government will step in as necessary to save systemically significant institutions,” the report said. That perception was reinforced when Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner extended TARP until Oct. 3, “permitting Treasury to maintain a war chest of potential rescue funding at the same time that banks that have shown questionable ability to return to profitability are exiting TARP programs,” the report said. Bank Repayments The Treasury , which administers the TARP, had planned to spend about $500 billion of the total amount to support financial firms, auto companies, purchase mortgage-backed securities and help homeowners. Bank repayments have totaled $165 billion and exposure was further cut by another $5 billion, leaving almost $370 billion available in TARP at the end of 2009, the report said. One of the goals of TARP’s injection of capital into banks was to jumpstart lending. That’s not happening, the report said. “Lending continues to decrease, month after month,” it said. A separate TARP program announced in March designed specifically to boost loans to small businesses “has still not been implemented by Treasury,” the report said. To contact the reporter on this story: Brendan Murray in Washington at brmurray@bloomberg.net

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Rusal Shares Drop in Hong Kong’s First IPO in 2010 as Market Declines 12%

January 26, 2010

By Bloomberg News Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) — United Co. Rusal Ltd. , the world’s largest aluminum producer, fell in its Hong Kong trading debut as demand for new equity waned after the city’s benchmark index dropped 12 percent from a November high. The Moscow-based company declined 8 percent to HK$9.94 at 10:01 a.m., from the listing price of HK$10.80. Rusal, the first IPO in Hong Kong in 2010, will use net proceeds of HK$16.7 billion ($2.1 billion) to pay down $14.9 billion of debt. Rusal, barred from marketing to retail investors, found buyers for all the stock on offer after winning investments from Asian billionaire Li Ka-shing and New York hedge-fund manager Paulson & Co. The benchmark Hang Seng Index has dropped in the past five days as investors globally retreat from risk on concern lending curbs in China, and U.S. plans to rein in banks will stifle the global economic recovery. “The market sentiment is certainly not favorable to Rusal,” said Conita Hung , head of equity markets at Delta Asia Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong. “If short-term individual and hedge fund investors think it is not profitable, they may sell the stock.” The Hang Seng Index has fallen for five days, extending a decline from its Nov. 16 high of 22,943.98. Investors are concerned the Chinese government will rein in liquidity to contain asset bubbles after China posted the fastest economic growth since 2007 in the fourth quarter. Rusal, controlled by billionaire Oleg Deripaska , had its IPO delayed at least twice by regulators and restricted to wealthy and corporate investors on concern about its debt. Rich Friends The IPO was “moderately over-subscribed,” Moscow-based Rusal said in a Jan. 25 statement to the Hong Kong exchange. The stock will trade in blocks of 24,000 shares, or HK$259,200 at the listing price. Rusal reserved about 39.4 percent of the IPO shares for Malaysian billionaire Robert Kuok, hedge fund Paulson, NR Investments Ltd., the principal investment company of Nathaniel Rothschild of the banking family, and Russian state development bank Vnesheconombank , or VEB. The IPO price gives Rusal an enterprise value that is 11.7 times the 2010 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda, people familiar with the sale said last week. The enterprise value is the sum of a company’s market value, equity and debt minus cash. Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. , the nation’s largest producer of the metal, trades at an enterprise value 13.8 times its 2010 Ebitda, and Alcoa Inc., the biggest U.S. aluminum maker, at 7.5 times, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Rusal’s IPO comes less than two months after it completed Russia’s biggest corporate debt restructuring. Profit Forecasts Rusal posted a loss of $868 million in the first half of 2009, compared with net income of $1.4 billion a year earlier. Profit won’t be less than $434 million for the full year, it said in the IPO prospectus. Borrowings almost doubled after the company bought a quarter of OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel before commodity prices collapsed in 2008. The company cut debt to $14.9 billion, while extending repayments to as long as seven years, in the restructuring completed in December. Rusal’s debut may attract other Russian companies to Hong Kong. OAO Russian Railways, operator of the world’s longest rail network, said Jan. 21 it may consider the city for the proposed dual listings of two units. “Traditionally, after the fall of the Soviet Union, Russian companies have looked to London for finance,” said Eric Kraus , a strategist at Otkritie Financial Co. in Moscow. “But with large pools of capital in Greater China, particularly interested in resources companies, then the trend will move towards the East.” Aluminum Rises China, the world’s largest metal consumer, spurred price increases in raw materials last year as its $586 billion stimulus spending raised demand from builders and automakers. Aluminum futures gained 45 percent in London last year, and Alcoa said on Jan. 11 that global demand will increase 10 percent this year, led by China. Rusal is in a stable financial position, having cut costs, restructured debt and benefited from higher aluminum prices, Deputy Chief Executive Officer Artem Volynets said Jan. 11. BNP Paribas SA and Credit Suisse Group AG led banks including Bank of America Merrill Lynch, BOC International Holdings Ltd., Nomura Holdings Inc., Renaissance Capital Ltd., OAO Sberbank and VTB Capital SA in arranging the sale. — John Duce , Bei Hu , Marco Lui in Hong Kong, Xiao Yu in Beijing, Editors: Tan Hwee Ann , Keith Gosman . To contact the Bloomberg News Staff of this story: Xiao Yu in Beijing at yxiao@bloomberg.net ; John Duce in Hong Kong at Jduce1@bloomberg.net

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Rusal to Make Debut in Hong Kong’s First IPO for 2010 as Market Drops 12%

January 26, 2010

By Bloomberg News Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) — United Co. Rusal Ltd. will become the first Russian company to trade its shares in Hong Kong today, testing demand for new equity after the city’s benchmark index dropped 12 percent from a November high. The world’s largest aluminum producer booked net proceeds of HK$16.7 billion ($2.1 billion) selling shares at HK$10.80 each in Hong Kong’s first initial public offering of 2010. The IPO was delayed at least twice by regulators and restricted to wealthy and corporate investors on concern about its $14.9 billion of debt. Rusal, controlled by billionaire Oleg Deripaska , found buyers for all the stock on offer after winning investments from Asian billionaire Li Ka-shing and New York hedge-fund manager Paulson & Co. Retail demand for the shares may be muted as investors globally retreat from risk on concern lending curbs in China, and U.S. plans to rein in banks will stifle the global economic recovery. “It’s the big institutional investors which are involved here and they will try to support the share price, but I can’t see much interest coming from smaller investors,” Timothy Kwai , analyst at Quam Securities, said in Hong Kong. “They know that Rusal is heavily in debt.” Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index has fallen for five days, extending a decline from its Nov. 16 high of 22,943.98. Investors are concerned the Chinese government will rein in liquidity to contain asset bubbles after China posted the fastest economic growth since 2007 in the fourth quarter. Rich Friends The IPO was “moderately over-subscribed,” Moscow-based Rusal said in a Jan. 25 statement to the Hong Kong exchange. The stock will trade in blocks of 24,000 shares, or HK$259,200 at the listing price. Rusal reserved about 39.4 percent of the IPO shares for Malaysian billionaire Robert Kuok, hedge fund Paulson, NR Investments Ltd., the principal investment company of Nathaniel Rothschild of the banking family, and Russian state development bank Vnesheconombank , or VEB. The IPO price gives Rusal an enterprise value that is 11.7 times the 2010 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda, people familiar with the sale said last week. The enterprise value is a sum of a company’s market value, equity and debt minus cash. Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. , the nation’s largest producer of the metal, trades at an enterprise value 13.8 times its 2010 Ebitda, and Alcoa Inc., the biggest U.S. aluminum maker, at 7.4 times, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Rusal’s IPO comes less than two months after it completed Russia’s biggest corporate debt restructuring. Profit Forecasts Rusal posted a loss of $868 million in the first half of 2009, compared with net income of $1.4 billion a year earlier. Profit won’t be less than $434 million for the full year, it said in the IPO prospectus. Borrowings almost doubled after the company bought a quarter of OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel before commodity prices collapsed in 2008. The company cut debt to $14.9 billion, while extending repayments to as long as seven years, in the restructuring completed in December. Rusal’s debut may attract other Russian companies to Hong Kong. OAO Russian Railways, operator of the world’s longest rail network, said Jan. 21 it may consider the city for the proposed dual listings of two units. “Traditionally, after the fall of the Soviet Union, Russian companies have looked to London for finance,” said Eric Kraus , a strategist at Otkritie Financial Co. in Moscow. “But with large pools of capital in Greater China, particularly interested in resources companies, then the trend will move towards the East.” Aluminum Rises China, the world’s largest metal consumer, spurred price increases in raw materials last year as its $586 billion stimulus spending raised demand from builders and automakers. Aluminum futures gained 45 percent in London last year, and Alcoa said on Jan. 11 that global demand will increase 10 percent this year, led by China. Rusal is in a stable financial position, having cut costs, restructured debt and benefited from higher aluminum prices, Deputy Chief Executive Officer Artem Volynets said Jan. 11. “There could be a downside if there’s news which might suggest lower future demand for aluminum, or maybe political upheavals in Russia,” said Ben Collett , head of equities at Louis Capital Markets HK Ltd. “These could affect the stock, but generally I think it should do pretty well.” The Guinean government has taken Rusal to a local court, alleging the Russian company owed it $860 million, Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post quoted Mahmoud Thiam , the minister of mines, energy and hydropower, as saying on Jan. 24. Rusal said a new Guinean administration was formed this month and Thiam no longer represents the nation. It also said it “has fully disclosed all relevant details regarding Guinea in its prospectus and has nothing new to add.” BNP Paribas SA and Credit Suisse Group AG led banks including Bank of America Merrill Lynch, BOC International Holdings Ltd., Nomura Holdings Inc., Renaissance Capital Ltd., OAO Sberbank and VTB Capital SA in arranging the sale. — John Duce , Bei Hu , Marco Lui in Hong Kong, Xiao Yu in Beijing, Editors: Tan Hwee Ann , Matthew Brooker . To contact the Bloomberg News Staff of this story: Xiao Yu in Beijing at yxiao@bloomberg.net ; John Duce in Hong Kong at Jduce1@bloomberg.net

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Charlie Cray: Dark Days for Democracy

January 25, 2010

They’ve reloaded the Chamber and, unless we — the body politic — get off our backs, democracy will soon be dead. I refer, of course, to last week’s Supreme Court’s decision (Citizens United v. FEC), which gave corporations the go-ahead to spend unlimited amounts of money to influence elections. The ruling is one of the biggest direct shots at democracy taken since Lewis Powell outlined a multi-decade strategy to squelch the voice of citizens and enthrone corporate rule. Powell, who was appointed to the Court by President Nixon just two months later, wrote his now-infamous memo for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to urge its member corporations to fight a multi-pronged war by targeting three key institutions as the battlefields in our society where the shape of democracy would be debated and determined – the universities, the media and, especially, the courts. The Chamber and its allies at NAM and the Business Roundtable quickly mobilized to put Powell’s plan into action, with the help of various ideological philanthropists along the right wing/corporate axis (e.g. Scaife, Olin, Coors, Koch, Smith Richardson, and Bradley). Together, they built up a phalanx of right-wing think tanks, public relations operatives, lobbying outfits, media whores and corporate-friendly legal foundations — from the Federalist Society to Washington Legal Foundation. Together, these groups constitute what has been called (no doubt to smooth over the ideological implications) a ” business civil liberties ” movement. In his memo, Powell advised the corporate elites that “strength lies in organization, in careful long-range planning and implementation, in consistency of action over an indefinite period of years, in the scale of financing available only through joint effort, and in the political power available only through united action and national organizations.” And that’s just what they did. As Lee Drutman and I wrote in our book describing what we must do about the excesses of corporate power (The People’s Business: Controlling Corporations and Restoring Democracy), “Powell’s point was simple: develop a multifront plan of attack and patiently implement it.” Four decades later, the result has been an all-out attack upon anyone who might pose a “countervailing” threat to business’ power, as John Kenneth Galbraith described labor and other institutions’ role vis-à-vis the corporation. Take trial lawyers, for example. Back in 2006, Alison Frankel declared in the American Lawyer that it was “over”: After a 20-year tort “reform” campaign by the Chamber, industry and its allies had effectively extinguished the ability of injured workers, defrauded consumers and bankrupt investors to pursue justice through civil litigation. (If you were around during the 80s you will recall how much more of a boogie man “trial lawyers” seemed to be, Now when the Right sounds such alarms — like they did during the health care debate – it seems as ridiculous as when the warmongers compare the next tinpot dictator to Hitler). And so it goes — just as they did with their “tort deform” campaign, the Chamber and other business ideologues have organized strategic campaigns to drive litigation to Supreme Court to expand the corporate agenda (often dragging traditional liberal groups – such as unions and the ACLU – along, as they did in the Citizens United case), especially in the area of First Amendment rights. The Citizens United decision is therefore the latest (and worst) result of a long campaign to (improperly) imbue corporations with constitutional rights originally intended for real “people.” And although the history of decisions that have done so extends way, way back – to the Santa Clara case (establishing corporate personhood doctrine) and beyond – the point is that right now, corporate America has is busily undoing our ability to restrain their “speech” – whether that means commercial speech (e.g. overturning any bans on commercial advertising in schools, ads urging off-label drug use, or the do-not-call registry as a form of restraint against free speech), corporate control over the media through deregulated ownership rules (recall how under the Powell FCC the proposal to loosen media ownership rules was framed around the “rights” of broadcasters, rather than the right of communities to structure the media to facilitate democratic discourse), and corporate domination of politics. (How long before the Roberts Court agrees to hear another case challenging the 1907 Tilman Act?) As Ruth Marcus pointed out in the Washington Post, on its face the Citizens United decision was astonishing for the shoddiness of its logic. At the very least, it should disturb anyone who remembers how Roberts and Alito kept referring to “stare decisis” (respect for precedent) in their nomination hearings to witness them overturning decades-old decisions when the facts in the case before them didn’t even warrant such a broad examination of the question of corporate speech. The Roberts Court abandoned the usual practice of adjudicating non-constitutional claims before constitutional ones – a radical departure that indicates how far it may be willing to go to serve the “business civil liberties” agenda. While the immediate effect of the decision is likely to be a surge in corporate cash in the fall elections, it also signals something bigger and much more frightening: The opening salvo of an open and sustained attack by the Court upon the rights of the People to govern the behavior of corporations, which, if successful, will eviscerate what’s left of American democracy. It’s tempting to toss up my hands and leave it there, but that would be unnecessary catastrophizing, because there is the slim hope that we can address some of the worst impacts of this decision. To start, we need to push for public financing of elections (as in Senator Dick Durbin’s Fair Elections Act), as well as other proposals outlining the measures Congress should craft in response to the Court – including proposals that would require affirmative shareholder approval before executives are allowed to spend out of corporate treasury; and perhaps some kind of “pay to play” restriction against such expenditures by lobbyists and companies (contractors) wishing to do business with the federal government. But add all of those up and they will not be nearly enough. Which is why we need to go deeper into the framework of law itself. E.g., two coalitions have put out the call for a Constitutional Amendment restricting the rights of corporations. To learn more, go to Free Speech for People and Move to Amend . It’s a good start for what will be a long, difficult struggle to roll back corporate rule.

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Real Estate Investing in the US Makes a Comeback

January 25, 2010

That was one notable assessment by panelists at the fall conference of the Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center held at Wharton in Philadelphia recently. They also offered insights on lessons learned from the supervisory gaps that fueled the

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Real Estate Investing in the US Makes a Comeback

January 25, 2010

That was one notable assessment by panelists at the fall conference of the Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center held at Wharton in Philadelphia recently. They also offered insights on lessons learned from the supervisory gaps that fueled the

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Bayh Says Obama May Seek Discretionary-Spending Freeze in Jan. 27 Address

January 23, 2010

By Laura Litvan Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) — There is a “fighting chance” President Barack Obama will propose a freeze in most discretionary spending by the federal government in his State of the Union speech next week, Senator Evan Bayh , an Indiana Democrat, said “The president can say in this State of the Union address, ‘I’m going to include in my budget a freeze on discretionary spending, I’m drawing a line in the sand, and I’m going to use my veto pen to enforce that,’” Bayh said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital with Al Hunt ,” airing this weekend. Bayh, 54, said that while he wasn’t certain the president would make such a call, “I think that there’s a fighting chance that he will.” The senator also said he expects Obama to use the Jan. 27 nationally televised address before Congress to embrace creation of a commission that would suggest spending cuts and tax increases that Congress would be forced to vote on. Bayh met this week with Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner , Vice President Joe Biden and U.S. Office of Management and Budget Director Peter Orszag to discuss such a commission. Bayh said he doubts Congress would approve establishment of such an independent panel, and that Obama would have to set it up by executive fiat. Getting the 60 votes likely needed for Senate passage of a bill to create the commission “will be very hard,” said Bayh, a second-term Democrat who will face voters in this fall’s midterm elections. He said that as a result, he expects Obama to “then come forward with an executive commission which is not as good, but is at least there’s a step in the right direction.” Geithner, Summers Bayh said he retains confidence in Geithner and White House chief economic adviser Lawrence Summers , even though the president recently moved to adopt a more aggressive regulatory stance toward the financial industry than had been originally advocated by either of them. “I do,” Bayh said when asked about backing the two. “They’re both knowledgeable.” He said Summers “wants to head us on a better fiscal path,” while Geithner “had to get his sea legs under him in terms of public statements.” Bayh said he backs Obama’s recent proposal for a tax on as many as 50 large financial firms with assets greater than $50 billion. “They do have a responsibility and a role here in helping to clean up some of this mess, over and above just what we lent to them,” Bayh said, referring to taxpayer bailout funding. Limits on Banks Bayh expressed some reservations with a separate White House plan to limit the size of banks, saying that could harm the ability of U.S. institutions to compete globally. He said he would make up his mind on whether to support the plan, which Obama announced on Jan. 21, once he sees the details. The senator said he supports the part of the Obama proposal that would place limits on the trading activities of financial institutions in order to reduce risk-taking and prevent another financial crisis. “It’s one thing if the banks want to trade with their capital and put their own money at risk. I’ve got no problem with that. That’s the American way,” Bayh said. “But if directly or indirectly the American taxpayer is backstopping those activities if they go wrong, well, that’s a different issue.” “It seems to me the taxpayers then have a right to be involved and setting some of the rules,” he said. Health Care After the Jan. 19 Republican upset in the U.S. Senate election in Massachusetts, Bayh said Democrats who control Congress should pursue a more limited health-care overhaul measure that could achieve bipartisan consensus. Such legislation might include proposals to let insurance companies compete across state lines, insurance-market changes including a ban on coverage exclusions for pre-existing conditions, and subsidies that would encourage more small businesses to cover their workers. One option that shouldn’t be turned to, he said, is use of “reconciliation,” a procedure that could allow a health measure to move through the Senate with just 51 votes and no ability by opponents to use parliamentary tactics to block it. “Just ramming it through on a solely partisan basis, particularly if you’re using reconciliation, well, I think that would be very difficult,” he said. Bayh said the main message from Massachusetts is that a tougher push for fiscal discipline is needed in Washington. He said that’s a chief concern of swing voters, and Democrats lost independent voters in the Massachusetts race “three- or four-to-one.” Rising Deficits “They’re concerned about rising deficits, the fiscal issue and it feeds into this animosity toward Washington,” he said. “On a personal level people say, ‘well, wait a minute. I’ve got to balance the family checkbook. I’m making do with a little less now. Why can’t the government do the same thing?’” Bayh, who won his last election in 2004 with 62 percent of the vote, said he’s confident he will prevail again in November even as Representative Mike Pence , an Indiana Republican, may challenge him. Pence is the No. 3 House Republican leader and a former conservative talk-radio host. “It’s a more challenging environment for every incumbent,” and “probably more for Democrats than Republicans,” Bayh said. “But the reports of my poll numbers having declined are not accurate. I can tell you that from direct knowledge.” To contact the reporters on this story: Laura Litvan in Washington at llitvan@bloomberg.net ;

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Placido Dies Magnificently Thanks to Lustful Poisoner: Manuela Hoelterhoff

January 20, 2010

Review by Manuela Hoelterhoff Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) — Placido Domingo made history at New York’s Metropolitan Opera on Monday wearing the regalia of the doge of Genoa, Simone Boccanegra, a luckless guy who can’t get a break. When we first see him in the Prologue of this opera by Verdi, Simone is a young buccaneer whose mistress has just died. Their baby daughter has also been abducted. In Act I, 25 years later, and now leader of Genoa, Simone discovers Amelia, also known as Maria, in a seaside town, but then she is abducted again! In Act II, he is thrilled to find her mysteriously returned to his palace. Short-lived is their happiness: the foiled kidnapper has dropped poison in his water goblet. In Act III, Simone dies after clutching her and forgiving a variety of puzzling people who have been lurking about for more than three hours. And does Domingo ever die! He doesn’t just gradually sink to the floor holding on to the sturdy soprano to cushion his fall. He pitches headlong toward the prompter’s box (from which helpful whispers emanated all night long). It was a thrilling end to an unusual evening. Having made his debut as a tenor in 1968 at the Met, Domingo now made a second debut as a baritone in the same week he celebrated his 69th birthday. His mental and physical fitness are amazing; his technique and energy, simply beyond compare. (In between shows, he’s also conducting another mid-tier Verdi piece, “Stiffelio.”) Burnished Sound That burnished sound of his filled Simone’s often wistful music without seeming underpowered in the middle range. When in the last scene Domingo sang of the sea and remembered his great deeds, so did we. Gorgeous music flows through the piece. We’d probably hear “Simone Boccanegra” more often if the plot weren’t so clotted with assumed names, conspirators, traitors and large groups of choristers who keep barging in, sometimes to rousing effect. The chorus scenes galvanized James Levine , whose tempi were otherwise so slow, you regretted that Domingo, always a swifty, wasn’t also on the podium. The traditional production by Giancarlo Del Monaco offers huge and handsome sets evoking 14th-century Genoa –and the Met of another, more lavish era. First seen in 1995, and nicely restaged by Peter McClintock, it provides a helpful frame to the principals and their risible comings and goings. Lustful Poisoner Adrianne Pieczonka was the very musicianly, drably costumed Amelia. Tenor Marcello Giordani invested the ungrateful role of her lover, Gabriele Adorno, with a powerful sound. James Morris had a wobbly time trying to sing Fiesco’s big aria at the maestro’s excruciating pace, but rallied for his return in the last act when he gets introduced to his granddaughter. “Who was that again?” groaned someone near me as he skulked in. Patrick Carfizzi offered an incisive bass-baritone and creepy presence as Paolo, the lustful poisoner. Rating: **** “Simone Boccanegra” runs through Saturday, Feb. 6, when it will be transmitted to theaters worldwide live in high definition. To access a performance calendar and to purchase tickets, try the Met’s new Web site for mobile phones at: http://www.metopera.org . ( Manuela Hoelterhoff is executive editor of Muse, Bloomberg’s arts and culture section. All opinions are her own.) To contact the writer on the story: Manuela Hoelterhoff at mhoelterhoff@bloomberg.net .

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Josipovic Wins Croatia Presidential Election; Will Speed Up EU Entry Talks

January 10, 2010

By Boris Cerni Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) — Ivo Josipovic will lead Croatia for the next five years after winning a run-off presidential election as the former Yugoslav republic strives to complete European Union entry talks and seeks to revive the economy. Josipovic , with the support of the largest opposition party, the Social Democrats, garnered 60.3 percent of the people’s vote, results from the central electoral commission in Zagreb published on its Web site showed. Zagreb Mayor Milan Bandic got 39.7 percent of the vote in yesterday’s election. “When I announced I will run for president, I have said I want a European Croatia,” Josipovic, a law and music professor, said in an interview with Hrvatska Radiotelevizija , the national broadcaster, after the results were announced. “Croatia will be one of the shining stars on the European sky.” Bandic said in the same broadcast he will return to the Zagreb Mayor post after the defeat. The Adriatic Sea country, which aims to complete EU entry talks by June, must eliminate corruption and overhaul the judiciary and the shipping industries to become the next Yugoslav nation after Slovenia to join the world’s largest trading bloc by 2012. Josipovic will have a largely ceremonial role when he takes over from Stipe Mesic in February with limited powers over the economy. He would be “a good counselor” to Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor and he would “contribute to a quicker accession to the EU as he would spur other institutions to do their homework,” according to political analyst Damir Grubisa. Economic Growth The Balkan nation of 4.4 million people aims to spur economic growth after the worst contraction since the fall of communism two decades ago. Gross domestic product shrank an annual 5.7 percent in the third quarter from 6.3 in the previous three months as credit became scarce and consumption, as well as investment, faltered. GDP is set to expand this year as European demand rebounds, according to the government’s forecast. Kosor’s administration is considering setting up a 10 billion kuna ($1.98 billion) fund to spur economic growth by helping companies most affected by the global recession. Central bank Governor Zeljko Rohatinski expects exporters to lead the recovery, which the government sees at an annual 0.5 percent this year. To contact the reporter on this story: Boris Cerni in Ljubljana, Slovenia, at bcerni@bloomberg.net .

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Charles Gasparino: Why a Business Writer Wishes Wall Street Wasn’t Such a Big Story

January 4, 2010

I’ve been covering Wall Street now for nearly 20 years, and it’s been a pretty good run. I’ve broken some big stories and written three books about the “Street,” and I’m looking to write another. I’ve made some friends along the way — people like Teddy Forstmann, the great investor who called the junk-bond crisis and had the insight to steer clear of several others, and I’ve made some enemies, namely the traders and bankers who work at many of the big firms who would have preferred I kept silent about their problems during last year’s financial crisis rather than blab about them on CNBC. The story about Wall Street is a big one — and I’m afraid to say, it’s going to get bigger in 2010 and beyond. If you want to know why the federal government allows all those community banks to fail, but bails out Citigroup, Bank of America, etc., with unlimited funding, it’s because these institutions have grown so large, and become so important and intertwined in the global financial system, that letting them fail would be catastrophic. In other words, it’s cheaper to guarantee Citigroup’s survival (and that of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, JP Morgan) with hundreds of billions of dollars in bailout money as the government did last year, than watch the global banking system implode. Now you may think I just can’t wait to cover this story in 2010. Of course, the journalist in me says, “bring it on”: another book and columns to write, big stories to cover. But the American citizen in me makes me wish Wall Street wasn’t such a big story, that people like Vikram Pandit of Citigroup and Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs (yes, the guy who thinks trading bonds is “God’s Work”) just weren’t such a big part of American life that the country’s economy rises and falls on their bad bets. I’ve come to this conclusion after reading two articles. One is a thoughtful but at bottom unrealistic piece written by several HuffPost contributors, including Arianna Huffington . It proposes that Americans remove their money from the large money-center banks at the center of the reckless risk taking that led to last year’s meltdown and bailouts, and move their deposits into community banks, the good guys of finance that didn’t take the risk because they weren’t Too Big To Fail. The other is a less thoughtful post written by an anonymous blogger also on this site that defends Goldman Sachs and questions some of my reporting, including one piece from The Daily Beast that suggests Goldman’s all-too-obvious image problems have begun to impact its investment banking business. What I like about Arianna’s piece is that it attempts to hold the bad guys responsible. Its point is pretty simple: The likes of Citigroup and Bank of America don’t deserve our money, so let’s hit them hard and reward those who deserve our support, namely the community banks, who, despite many failures, didn’t engage in massive risk taking as the so-called large “money center” banks did over the past decade. The problem with the piece is twofold: First, community banks weren’t blameless in terms of risk taking and thus aiding and abetted the real estate bubble, which is the root cause of our economic problems. That’s why so many of them have failed and will continue to do so. Also, by making smaller community banks more important we might simply transfer the policy and status of Too Big To Fail to a different set of institutions. Armed with government support and subsidy from the Too Big To Fail precedent, what would stop community banks from taking excessive risk just as Citi has done? There are almost too many ways to attack the posting from the anonymous blogger (who goes by the name “Dear John Thain”), titled ” 2010 Will be A Challenging Year for Goldman Sachs ,” (this guy obviously has a flair for understatement) so I will make the following points. Because he’s anonymous, we don’t know if he’s a Goldman executive (one way Goldman is now looking to attack its critics is by blogging positively about the firm, I am told) an investor with holdings of Goldman Sachs stock (a substantial conflict of interest if this is true), or just some guy with too much time on his hands. In any event, one line caught my eye: He takes issue with my assertion that Goldman benefits from a subsidy from the government because of its status now as a bank; he says it’s really a “financial holding company” as opposed to a “bank holding company” but fails to point out that there’s really no difference. In the aftermath of the financial meltdown and bailout, Goldman is now primarily regulated by the Fed (as opposed to the Securities and Exchange Commission), the banking system’s chief regulator, and receives along with that all the benefits of the classification, including being treated in the market as Too Big To Fail, and thus being able to borrow cheaply. As I pointed out in my book The Sellout , there’s much to admire about Goldman and its history in risk taking compared with the other big firms; this was, of course, the only firm to question its own irrational exuberance and short the subprime real estate market back in late 2006 (a trade in which a firm makes money if prices decline) whiles it competitors were betting bigger on the bubble. But that hedge only delayed the inevitable — Goldman, like the rest of the financial business (except maybe JP Morgan), bet big and wrong, so wrong that by the fall of 2009 it, along with most of its competitors, was falling into insolvency. All of which brings me to the bigger point of this piece: We as journalists, as commentators, and policy makers spend way too much time arguing over the fine points of Goldman’s status as a bank holding company or a financial holding company. Lloyd Blankfein is pilloried for saying he does God’s Work when he trades stocks or bonds, when in a more perfect world, what he says or what he does just shouldn’t mean that much to the guy who owns an auto repair shop in Queens or the family farmer in Iowa. That’s why I kind of like Arianna’s idea (despite its drawbacks) of empowering community banks as opposed to the money center banks that are way too important and powerful and whose leaders just shouldn’t wield that type of influence because at bottom they’re just not smart enough — nor, perhaps, is anyone. Dear John Thain’s nom de plume is a reference, of course, to the former CEO of Merrill Lynch John Thain, who by all accounts didn’t think twice about spending more than $1 million decorating his office during the financial crisis, including tens of thousands on a high-end commode. To be sure, bankers have always wielded enormous power in our society — JP Morgan was a real person, after all. But somehow the importance of people like John Thain (whose spending spree also included a $1,400 parchment paper waste basket) and Lloyd Blankfein has grown beyond anyone’s comprehension, even their own. When former Lehman Brothers CEO Dick Fuld was rebuffing offers to buy his firm before its free fall into bankruptcy last year, I don’t think he truly envisioned the power of his inaction: That the entire financial system would shut down as a consequence of holding out for more money. One of the great lessons of the financial crisis is that this power was bestowed on the wrong people — the people who helped foment the housing bubble (along with the government) by packaging all those risky mortgages into allegedly safe bonds and then took so much risk that they destroyed the financial system and created the Great Recession and with it 10 percent unemployment. It would be nice if in the not so distant future the Dick Fulds and Lloyd Blankfeins of the world become less important, even if I lose a book deal in the process.

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M activity rebound likely in ’10

December 27, 2009

Despite the fall in deal volumes on both the merger and acquisition (M&A) and private equity (PE) fronts during the fourth quarter ending December, investment managers expect the improving global and domestic macro-economic indices to revive consumption

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Dan Dorfman: Limping Gold Poised to Run Again

December 20, 2009

Hey, what’s up with gold? Maybe it needs a flu shot, perhaps also one for swine flu. After barreling ahead about 130% in the past five years, 29% in the past two years, busting through $1,000 an ounce last September and then tacking on another 20% from there, the investment darling of the worry-warts has suddenly gone limp. Gold hit an all-time high of $1,227.50 an ounce on December 3, but then retreated to $1,102, largely reflecting a strengthening greenback. This past Friday, though, gold, widely viewed as a fear investment, had one of its better days, rising $6.10 to $1,113,50 on reports of an Iranian incursion into an Iraqi oil field. That’s up sharply from last year’s close of $880.80. For some thoughts on what’s going on with the precious metal and where it goes from here, I rang up Mark Leibovit, a dogged gold tracker who has demonstrated considerable prowess in timing moves in the metal, both up and down. One shining example of this prowess was Leibovit’s well-timed sell recommendation to his subscribers with gold in the low $1,200s, namely to those who were trading-oriented. He made that suggestion just a few days before the metal hit its all-time peak, which was quickly followed by a speedy 9% decline. “I think gold has entered its first serious corrective phase since the fall of 2008,” says Leibovit, an online investment adviser and editor of the VR Gold Letter in Sedona, Ariz. The last time I spoke to him, gold was in the high $1,100s. He made then what I thought was an outrageous statement. In brief, he said he doubted that we would ever see gold trade below $1,000 an ounce in our lifetime. Despite the metal’s slump, Leibovit is sticking to his guns. Sharp setbacks are quite characteristic of bull market corrections in gold, he says. In fact, Leibovit, who thinks gold is poised to run again, concedes the price of the metal could first be vulnerable to a further drop to the $1,020- $1,070 range. Why so? Because, he explained, of additional erosion to some further temporary strength in the dollar, the rise in long-term interest rates and fears the Euro could become unglued as dissenting countries threaten to break away from the union, which would make the dollar begin to look more attractive. Although he raises the possibility of additional declines in the price of gold, Leibovit thinks any drop say to the $1,020-$10.70 range would be short-lived since he believes a decrease to that level would be met with a flurry of buying. The key reason, as he sees it, “the dollar is terminal and will seek dramatically lower levels in the months and years ahead.” The gold party is just beginning, says Leibovit, who expects the metal to rise to $1,500 to $1,600 in 12 months, followed by a subsequent advance at some point to $3,000. (Bank of America recently predicted gold would hit $1,500 in 18 months). The basis of such gold advances is chiefly predicated on the U.S.’s serious financial heartaches, chief among them being: –A soaring $12 trillion of debt. –A ballooning $1.5 trillion budget deficit. –Non-non-stop debasement of our currency by round-the-clock money printing by the Federal Reserve. –A growing international lack of confidence in the greenback. –The prospects that a number of countries, among them China, Japan, India and Russia, may no longer buy U.S. treasuries. Likewise, Leibovit cites growing currency debasements globally, another significant gold plus. Leibovit also takes note of rumors of phony tungsten gold bars showing up around the world, possibly originating in China. If true, he says, it could wreak havoc in the gold market, as more and more holders of the metal would insist on physical delivery, which would force bullion dealers to replace any bogus gold bars with the real thing, in turn pushing gold prices even higher. If the dollar is becoming such a deadbeat, how does he explain away its recent rally. “Like the rally in the stock market,” he replied, “you’re looking at a mirage.” Incidentally, I caught up with Leibovit just prior to a dental appointment he had to have his crown replaced. “I assume it will be gold,” I said. His predictable response: “What else?” Costa Rican investment adviser Felix Heligmann, who manages about $88 million of his family’s and friends’ assets, has about 12% of the funds in gold and gold-related investments. He figures the economic, financial and political turmoil in the U.S. and its diminishing prestige on the world stage, which he says is sure to lead to more friction with America’s haters and international rebel rousers, are “money in the bank” reasons why the price of gold must go higher. San Francisco money manager Gary Wollin may offer one of the best strategies for playing gold. In a nutshell, put 5% of your assets in gold and pray it goes down in price because almost everything else will then go up. What do you think? E-mail me at Dandordan@aol.com.

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Eliot Spitzer, Frank Partnoy, William Black: Treasury Should Make AIG Emails Public For ‘Open Source’ Investigation

December 19, 2009

The three of us, as experienced investigators and prosecutors of financial fraud, cannot answer these questions now. But we know where the answers are. They are in the trove of e-mail messages still backed up on A.I.G. servers, as well as in the key internal accounting documents and financial models generated by A.I.G. during the past decade. Before releasing its regulatory clutches, the government should insist that the company immediately make these materials public. By putting the evidence online, the government could establish a new form of “open source” investigation. Once the documents are available for everyone to inspect, a thousand journalistic flowers can bloom, as reporters, victims and angry citizens have a chance to piece together the story. In past cases of financial fraud — from the complex swaps that Bankers Trust sold to Procter & Gamble in the early 1990s to the I.P.O. kickback schemes of the late 1990s to the fall of Enron — e-mail messages and internal documents became the central exhibits in our collective understanding of what happened, and why.

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Barney Frank Vs. The Credit Raters (VIDEO)

December 18, 2009

Last week, as the U.S. House debated the Wall Street reform package crafted largely by Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat quietly slipped regulations into the bill that would force the most significant overhaul of the credit rating industry to date. The top raters–Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch–seemed ripe for regulation ever since they awarded inflated grades to investments that ultimately unraveled the economy. If the provisions in the bill, passed by the House last Friday, make it through the Senate, investors who lost billions of dollars on those top-rated financial products would likely find it easier to sue the raters for fraud. Also, by no longer mandating that mutual funds buy only top-rated investments, the bill has the potential to squeeze the raters out of their special status in the financial system. “This really sounds like progress,” said Lawrence J. White, an economics professor at the Stern School of Business at New York University and a specialist in the credit rating industry. The credit raters have embraced some of Frank’s changes–an indication they’re not exactly frightened by the entire proposal. They are, however, engaged in a yearlong lobbying campaign, which has cost them about $2.7 million so far, a record for the rating industry, documents show. The plan by Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, does not eliminate the conflicts of interest in the credit rating industry, an omission he said he regrets. And it does not contain another idea that has been gaining traction among critics of the raters – a ‘public option’ that would create an alternative government-run credit rating agency to compete with the private sector. “The basic problem with the rating agencies is that they’re paid by the people they’re rating; there’s an inherent conflict of interest,” Frank said in an interview with the Huffington Post Investigative Fund . Curbing these conflicts, he said, is “one thing we’re still trying to get at.” In the interview, Frank said the raters, on the whole, “hate” his bill. In particular, they have not taken kindly to the prospect of more lawsuits. But Frank’s legislation faces an uncertain fate in the Senate, where lawmakers have struggled to rewrite rules for Wall Street. Frank’s counterpart in the Senate, banking committee chair Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.), has floated his own reform package. Dodd’s bill lacks some of Frank’s more forceful new regulations of the rating industry. If Frank’s provisions die in the Senate, it would not be the first time the raters escaped an overhaul. A three-part Investigative Fund series recently documented how the credit raters have repeatedly defeated government oversight by arguing that their ratings are opinions, protected by the constitutional right to free speech. With help from the First Amendment, the raters also remain undefeated in court against disgruntled investors. Although Frank said the raters should enjoy some First Amendment cover, he argued “you do not have full First Amendment protections when you’re doing things for money.” Standard & Poor’s already faces some 50 lawsuits from investors and state attorneys general, who argue that the raters should compensate the people and institutions who bought top-rated toxic securities. “The door has already been opened,” said Daniel Bacine, a partner at Philadelphia law firm that has investigated possible lawsuits against the raters. But Frank said his bill would, for the first time, provide investors an explicit right to sue the rating companies. It also would change the standard for suing them. Instead of proving a rating company “knowingly or recklessly” issued a bogus rating, also known as committing fraud, investors would only have to show the raters were “grossly negligent.” “We made it much easier for them to sue,” Frank said, which will “put the rating agencies very much on notice.” Floyd Abrams, a storied First Amendment attorney who has represented Standard & Poor’s for more than 20 years, said switching to a so-called negligence standard could “be a very major threat to rating agencies being able to go about their business.” In effect, Abrams said in an interview this fall, investors would need to show the raters merely acted unreasonably. In a letter published in the New York Times this week, S&P’s president, Deven Sharma, warned that “singling out rating firms for increased and discriminatory liability standards is likely to result in more defensive, less robust ratings.” Sharma, on the other hand, recently endorsed Frank’s plan to scale back the raters’ entrenchment in the financial system. S&P and other companies anointed by the government as Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations, or NRSROs, are chiseled into many rules that regulate the financial industry. One such rule allows big banks to leverage themselves based on how well their assets are rated by the NRSROs. Another requires mutual funds and other investment managers to buy only top-rated products. The result: The government is essentially “outsourcing” its regulatory duties to the raters, said White, of New York University. Frank’s bill would remove the raters from many of these rules, a decision that “could erode their market share,” White said. Sharma seems to disagree. In a letter to the SEC this month, he said, “We believe investors will continue to view credit ratings as providing analytical insight and transparency even if they are not referred to in the various rules, statutes and forms where they appear today.” Some rating companies also endorsed a few of Frank’s more modest measures, including one to beef up their compliance departments and another requiring them to follow their own rating methodologies. Those changes alone don’t go far enough, said James Heintz, associate director of the Political Economy Research Institute at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Heintz has another idea: create a public option. Had there been an unbiased, government-run credit rating agency operating five years ago, “it’s unlikely the crisis would have happened in this magnitude,” he said. Heintz likens his independent agency to the Food and Drug Administration, which assess the health risks of drugs before the public can buy them. Likewise, before investors can buy a financial product, the public rating agency would have to evaluate its risk to the financial system. Bond issuers, he said, would still be free to get a second opinion from private raters. Because the agency would not generate profits–any surplus would be transferred to the Treasury–it would be free of conflicts of interest. Without profits, he said, there’s no motive to please bond issuers or investors. Frank said he has mulled a public option but is “skeptical that you could insulate a government-run rating agency from pressure from the people being rated.” In that case, some argue, why not at least have an independent watchdog overseeing the rating industry? The Congressional Oversight Panel, for instance, floated the idea of a Credit Rating Review Board that would audit ratings after the fact. The idea stems from the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, an independent nonprofit created to oversee auditors of public companies after the Enron scandal. A similar proposal, articulated by Demos, a liberal think-tank in New York, would have the watchdog act as a middleman between bond issuers and the rating agencies. To minimize conflicts, the watchdog would assign bonds to rating agencies at random. The watchdog would withhold assignments from, or even suspend, the least accurate raters. This policy would “change these three rating agencies profoundly,” said James Lardner, a senior policy analyst at Demos. The idea, first mentioned in an oversight panel report published in January, was initially well received on Capitol Hill. Two Democratic congressmen on Frank’s committee sought to include it in the bill, an effort that ultimately failed. Do you have information about this story? Send us a tip or submit a correction . Follow the Huffington Post Investigative Fund on Twitter or fan us on Facebook .

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1.7 Million Homes Were On The Verge Of Foreclosure This Fall

December 17, 2009

WASHINGTON — About 1.7 million homeowners were on the verge of foreclosure in the fall, a looming “shadow inventory” of homes that will be put up for sale in the coming years and weigh down prices, a report said Thursday. The number, up from 1.1 million a year earlier, is likely to keep rising through the middle of next year or later, said Mark Fleming, chief economist of First American CoreLogic, the real estate research firm that released the study. Already, the foreclosure backlog is equal to nearly half the 3.8 million unsold new and existing homes currently on the market, First American said. “We’re going to be dealing with high levels of distressed (sales) in the marketplace for at least a couple of years,” Fleming said. “It’s not just all going to disappear.” Other reports have come up with larger estimates. But FirstAmerican assumes that fewer delinquent borrowers – only about one-third – will wind up losing their homes. It also estimates that nearly 30 percent of bank-owned properties have already been listed for sale. In many markets around the country, the number of new foreclosures has dropped in recent months as homeowners are reviewed for loan modification programs. But real estate agents, who have seen this as an encouraging sign, still fear that an onslaught is coming. “We’ve been in recovery mode for most of the year. How many foreclosures do they have to dump on the market to affect that? I don’t know,” Deborah Farmer, owner of StarLight Realty in Tampa, Fla. “Any house priced under $225,000 will be affected by a large increase in foreclosures in this market.” __ AP Real Estate Writer J.W. Elphinstone contributed to this report.

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Mike Bonifer: Tiger’s Unplayable Lie

December 16, 2009

Six years ago, after playing hooky from work on a Friday to watch The Best Golfer in the World play nine holes at Riviera Country Club, I wrote this about him for my company’s blog: Tiger hit one shot that I will remember for a long time, one of the best I’ve ever seen. 220 yards from the green after an errant drive, out of deep rough, he hit a high draw inches to the right of a big tree ten yards in front of him, inches to the left of two bigger trees 30 yards farther up, a couple of feet over a bunker fronting the green, to within ten feet of the pin. People in the gallery ooohed and aaahed and applauded, then gathered around the divot he made in the rough like so many TV cops peering down at a murder victim. “Look at how long it is,” they muttered of the divot. “Look how wide he took his swing path.” “Did you see how hard he went down after it? Damn!” And… His focus is the most intimidating thing about his game. There is an unshakeable calmness to him that you don’t see in the other pros. Earl named him well, because he plays golf like a big cat stalking its prey. The confidence he has in the inevitability of his success is absolute. And… And yet…and yet…it’s strange to stand near another human being and not sense any more humanity in him than you would in a thoroughbred in the paddock at Santa Anita. What makes us vital–all that brawling, longing, laughing, crying, hurting and loving–all that bitching and moaning and mucking around most of us do on a daily basis-is bad for a person’s golf game. And so none of it seems to be part of Tiger’s make-up. He is, on the golf course anyway, inhuman. Today, the Eldrick “Tiger” Woods story, scripted for him by his father, Earl, since before he was born, is falling apart quicker than a 20-handicapper’s swing on the back nine of the club championship. In two weeks, Tiger has gone from paragon to pariah, and has proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that a brand can no longer script the humanity out of its narrative and expect the world to play along. In the billion-channel cosmos of the Networked World, sooner or later reality will outflank any brand’s ability to script and control its story the way brands could when there were three TV networks and a couple of major newspapers to be reckoned with, and story material was limited to what happened inside the ropes at Riviera. As this is written, the Tiger Woods brand burns out of control like a California wildfire, and embers from Tiger’s Inferno have landed on the roofs of Nike, Gatorade, Gillette and Accenture, and they’re in flames, too. Buick’s house of straw (did anybody ever really believe Tiger drove a Buick?) is probably burned beyond salvaging. What’s fueling this fire isn’t the the commonplace tabloid fodder of marital infidelity, it’s not about whether you side with a justly aggrieved wife or forgive a superstar his transgressions. This story is much bigger than that. It is a story as old as Achilles, the story of a hero’s fall from grace. It’s in our nature to want to see a story completed. Tiger’s story will hold the audience’s attention at least until the downfall is assured, the disgrace complete. The light at the end of Tiger’s tunnel–and the hope for any brand that has lost its way–is that the journey does not have to not end with the fall from grace. It may be impossible for the audience to turn away from a tragedy, but what the audience turns to of its own volition, and embraces more fervently than anything, is the hero’s return. As Joseph Campbell chronicles in Hero With A Thousand Faces , ‘falling to the Temptress(es)’ is one of many twists in the journey toward true heroism. Tiger Woods can redeem himself in the eyes of his audience, but he’s got to want to be an authentic hero, not one playing a role that has been scripted for him. Here are five productive moves he (or any other burning brand) can make in that direction: 1. Accept the Unplayable Lie. For you non-golfers, a Lie is Unplayable when the ball is in a position where not even Tiger Woods can take a productive swing at it. At that point, you’ve just got to accept the penalty and play on. This is the situation in which Tiger finds himself today. There is no excuse that will satisfy. No spin that can put the scandal to rest. He’s got no swing at this one. He’s got to cop to being a pig and a dog and apologize with more than words for whatever hurt his family, and get on with whatever’s next. Too many brands waste time talking about how or whether to play the unplayable lie, instead of quickly agreeing that it’s unplayable. They will consult with caddies and seek ruling from judges. They will pull different clubs out of the bag. They will check the wind. They will roll up their pants legs and walk into the hazard. Sometimes, they will even go all Van De Velde (for you golf fans) and take a stupid swing at the ball and make things much, much worse. And all along, the best thing would’ve been to simply accept the penalty and play on. 2. Be entrepreneurial. I always thought Tiger missed an opportunity when he signed with Nike for so much of his gear. Nothing against signing with Nike for the clubs, shoes and whatever, but giving them the clothing line, too, turned him into their mannequin. Nike dresses him like a second grader in a private school. His golf clothes are billboards with swooshes. He could be wearing clothes designed by people like Bill Johnson’s Transient label in D.C., or eco-friendly brands like Nau or Vital Hemptations . Small businesses of all kinds need help these days, and Tiger is just the guy to give it to them. He can help take a small minority-owned solar energy company national. He can sign with up-and-coming companies as sponsors, and not charge them a dime. Instead, he can own equity in them. This will have the added benefit of re-energizing the fan base, as pulling for Tiger will mean that you are pulling for a host of deserving upstart companies, too. The hero’s journey requires allies along the way. 3. Embrace your Cablinasianism. Tiger has made a big deal about being what the brand calls ‘Cablinasian.’ Caucasian-Black-Indian-Asian. Okay cool. But the scripted Tiger only explores a very narrow strand of that, the strand that is privileged, plays a lot of golf, owns a yacht and apparently hits on anyone carrying a cocktail tray. All brands can tap creative energy by exploring their multiculturalism. Tiger’s ethnic makeup is one thing besides being a great golfer that can differentiate the brand, but he has to show the audience what Cablinasian means beyond the clever cosmetic of a made-up word. 4. Be a supporting player for a change. From the time he was born, Tiger Woods has seldom been in a scene in which he was not the star. His father basically abandoned his other children to focus on young Eldrick. By age two, Tiger was on national television hitting golf balls. When he was a junior, he played with the grown-ups, when he was in college, he played with the pros, as a pro, he plays against the history of the game itself. That is a pretty lonely path. He needs to focus on sharing the narrative with others for awhile. This does not mean going into hiding. It means consciously taking a backseat in someone else’s scene. Raise your children. Work with your charities. Find a protégé to coach. In the Networked World, we are measured every bit as much by what we contribute to others as by what we amass for ourselves. No brand is an island. 5. Get better at something you’re bad at. We all develop go-to moves. If you are good at something, and receive a ton of approval and money for doing it, what is your motivation for doing anything else? Here is your motivation: In the Networked World, the narrative is not only multi-channel, it is multi-dimensional. Relying on your go-to move has the effect of limiting your brand’s value, because it limits the dimensions of the brand that have the potential to improve and grow. When you have won the Masters by 12 strokes and the U.S. Open by 15 and are probably The Greatest Golfer Who Ever Lived, golf is not an area of growth. It is a flat line at best. The growth areas are the dimensions of the brand that have not yet been explored. For Tiger Woods, this could probably mean just about anything other than playing golf and getting girls’ numbers, so there is a lot of room for growth. And growth is the only way out of this. Mike Bonifer is the author of GameChangers–Improvisation for Business in the Networked World .

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Mike Bonifer: Tiger’s Unplayable Lie

December 16, 2009

Six years ago, after playing hooky from work on a Friday to watch The Best Golfer in the World play nine holes at Riviera Country Club, I wrote this about him for my company’s blog: Tiger hit one shot that I will remember for a long time, one of the best I’ve ever seen. 220 yards from the green after an errant drive, out of deep rough, he hit a high draw inches to the right of a big tree ten yards in front of him, inches to the left of two bigger trees 30 yards farther up, a couple of feet over a bunker fronting the green, to within ten feet of the pin. People in the gallery ooohed and aaahed and applauded, then gathered around the divot he made in the rough like so many TV cops peering down at a murder victim. “Look at how long it is,” they muttered of the divot. “Look how wide he took his swing path.” “Did you see how hard he went down after it? Damn!” And… His focus is the most intimidating thing about his game. There is an unshakeable calmness to him that you don’t see in the other pros. Earl named him well, because he plays golf like a big cat stalking its prey. The confidence he has in the inevitability of his success is absolute. And… And yet…and yet…it’s strange to stand near another human being and not sense any more humanity in him than you would in a thoroughbred in the paddock at Santa Anita. What makes us vital–all that brawling, longing, laughing, crying, hurting and loving–all that bitching and moaning and mucking around most of us do on a daily basis-is bad for a person’s golf game. And so none of it seems to be part of Tiger’s make-up. He is, on the golf course anyway, inhuman. Today, the Eldrick “Tiger” Woods story, scripted for him by his father, Earl, since before he was born, is falling apart quicker than a 20-handicapper’s swing on the back nine of the club championship. In two weeks, Tiger has gone from paragon to pariah, and has proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that a brand can no longer script the humanity out of its narrative and expect the world to play along. In the billion-channel cosmos of the Networked World, sooner or later reality will outflank any brand’s ability to script and control its story the way brands could when there were three TV networks and a couple of major newspapers to be reckoned with, and story material was limited to what happened inside the ropes at Riviera. As this is written, the Tiger Woods brand burns out of control like a California wildfire, and embers from Tiger’s Inferno have landed on the roofs of Nike, Gatorade, Gillette and Accenture, and they’re in flames, too. Buick’s house of straw (did anybody ever really believe Tiger drove a Buick?) is probably burned beyond salvaging. What’s fueling this fire isn’t the the commonplace tabloid fodder of marital infidelity, it’s not about whether you side with a justly aggrieved wife or forgive a superstar his transgressions. This story is much bigger than that. It is a story as old as Achilles, the story of a hero’s fall from grace. It’s in our nature to want to see a story completed. Tiger’s story will hold the audience’s attention at least until the downfall is assured, the disgrace complete. The light at the end of Tiger’s tunnel–and the hope for any brand that has lost its way–is that the journey does not have to not end with the fall from grace. It may be impossible for the audience to turn away from a tragedy, but what the audience turns to of its own volition, and embraces more fervently than anything, is the hero’s return. As Joseph Campbell chronicles in Hero With A Thousand Faces , ‘falling to the Temptress(es)’ is one of many twists in the journey toward true heroism. Tiger Woods can redeem himself in the eyes of his audience, but he’s got to want to be an authentic hero, not one playing a role that has been scripted for him. Here are five productive moves he (or any other burning brand) can make in that direction: 1. Accept the Unplayable Lie. For you non-golfers, a Lie is Unplayable when the ball is in a position where not even Tiger Woods can take a productive swing at it. At that point, you’ve just got to accept the penalty and play on. This is the situation in which Tiger finds himself today. There is no excuse that will satisfy. No spin that can put the scandal to rest. He’s got no swing at this one. He’s got to cop to being a pig and a dog and apologize with more than words for whatever hurt his family, and get on with whatever’s next. Too many brands waste time talking about how or whether to play the unplayable lie, instead of quickly agreeing that it’s unplayable. They will consult with caddies and seek ruling from judges. They will pull different clubs out of the bag. They will check the wind. They will roll up their pants legs and walk into the hazard. Sometimes, they will even go all Van De Velde (for you golf fans) and take a stupid swing at the ball and make things much, much worse. And all along, the best thing would’ve been to simply accept the penalty and play on. 2. Be entrepreneurial. I always thought Tiger missed an opportunity when he signed with Nike for so much of his gear. Nothing against signing with Nike for the clubs, shoes and whatever, but giving them the clothing line, too, turned him into their mannequin. Nike dresses him like a second grader in a private school. His golf clothes are billboards with swooshes. He could be wearing clothes designed by people like Bill Johnson’s Transient label in D.C., or eco-friendly brands like Nau or Vital Hemptations . Small businesses of all kinds need help these days, and Tiger is just the guy to give it to them. He can help take a small minority-owned solar energy company national. He can sign with up-and-coming companies as sponsors, and not charge them a dime. Instead, he can own equity in them. This will have the added benefit of re-energizing the fan base, as pulling for Tiger will mean that you are pulling for a host of deserving upstart companies, too. The hero’s journey requires allies along the way. 3. Embrace your Cablinasianism. Tiger has made a big deal about being what the brand calls ‘Cablinasian.’ Caucasian-Black-Indian-Asian. Okay cool. But the scripted Tiger only explores a very narrow strand of that, the strand that is privileged, plays a lot of golf, owns a yacht and apparently hits on anyone carrying a cocktail tray. All brands can tap creative energy by exploring their multiculturalism. Tiger’s ethnic makeup is one thing besides being a great golfer that can differentiate the brand, but he has to show the audience what Cablinasian means beyond the clever cosmetic of a made-up word. 4. Be a supporting player for a change. From the time he was born, Tiger Woods has seldom been in a scene in which he was not the star. His father basically abandoned his other children to focus on young Eldrick. By age two, Tiger was on national television hitting golf balls. When he was a junior, he played with the grown-ups, when he was in college, he played with the pros, as a pro, he plays against the history of the game itself. That is a pretty lonely path. He needs to focus on sharing the narrative with others for awhile. This does not mean going into hiding. It means consciously taking a backseat in someone else’s scene. Raise your children. Work with your charities. Find a protégé to coach. In the Networked World, we are measured every bit as much by what we contribute to others as by what we amass for ourselves. No brand is an island. 5. Get better at something you’re bad at. We all develop go-to moves. If you are good at something, and receive a ton of approval and money for doing it, what is your motivation for doing anything else? Here is your motivation: In the Networked World, the narrative is not only multi-channel, it is multi-dimensional. Relying on your go-to move has the effect of limiting your brand’s value, because it limits the dimensions of the brand that have the potential to improve and grow. When you have won the Masters by 12 strokes and the U.S. Open by 15 and are probably The Greatest Golfer Who Ever Lived, golf is not an area of growth. It is a flat line at best. The growth areas are the dimensions of the brand that have not yet been explored. For Tiger Woods, this could probably mean just about anything other than playing golf and getting girls’ numbers, so there is a lot of room for growth. And growth is the only way out of this. Mike Bonifer is the author of GameChangers–Improvisation for Business in the Networked World .

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Eve Tahmincioglu: Bail Out Money Can Save Music

December 14, 2009

Great news today.

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Bank’s Failure Shows Lapses By Regulators

December 14, 2009

Even by the distorted standards of the national housing bubble, north central Florida was a hot market. Between 2004 and 2006 new houses and property markers spread across cow pastures and horse farms, their values soaring so fast that bankers and builders could hardly believe their good timing, or keep up with the workload. California investment groups would swoop in, order 40 or 60 homes at a pop, then flip them for a quick profit. “It was the Sunbelt’s time. It was stupid,” said Ocala builder Michael J. Kaufman of those heady days. “But was I supposed to say no? We live in a capital gain country.” Ocala National Bank, like many lenders at the time, had trouble saying no, too. With high demand in its community and a steady flow of easy financing from Wall Street, the small, locally owned bank embarked on a lending binge for real estate and construction. By 2006, its outstanding loans so outweighed its core capital that Ocala National became in effect one of the most risk-prone banks in America. GRAPHIC » For two years, government overseers knew of Ocala National Bank’s problems. By late 2008, they finally acted. But it was too late. Related: Ocala’s Loans Far Exceed Capital When the bank finally collapsed last year it cost the federal government’s deposit insurance fund $100 million. That is a tiny fraction of the fallout from big bank failures and bailouts. But the story of Ocala National carries lessons far beyond its size, illustrating how government regulators condoned the speculative behavior of hundreds of smaller banks that helped drive the economy toward a cliff. As many as 3,000 of the nation’s 8,100 financial institutions are said to be in troubled health, and some analysts expect as many as 250 to fail in the next nine months. Records and interviews show that federal bank regulators were well aware of Ocala National’s risky lending practices – sometimes meeting with the board where the details were discussed — but failed to act for two years as evidence piled up. The regulators did not use the enforcement tools they had employed years earlier when the bank’s owner and his two sons had been sanctioned for similar behavior. As the bank sputtered towards doom, regulators also failed to examine flows of millions of dollars from Ocala National to its holding company and to a company owned by the bank owner’s son and five of Ocala’s nine board members, according to a report by the Treasury Department’s inspector general’s office. The inspector general’s office has found that regulators acted too passively and slowly in many of the 31 recent bank failures it is reviewing. “We really don’t think the issue is so much an insufficient awareness of bank problems on the part of examiners as much as it is the regulators not taking sufficient and timely action,” Richard K. Delmar, speaking for the inspector general, told The Huffington Post Investigative Fund. The inspector general’s reviews repeatedly found lapses at Ocala National’s federal overseer – the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. In five of its six post-mortems of failed banks that had been regulated by the office, the inspector general found “a pattern where OCC examiners spotted the problems early but did not take forceful action until it was too late,” Delmar said. Among the proposals to remake the government’s financial oversight structure is one by Senate Banking Chairman Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.), which would merge the regulatory functions of the four agencies that supervise banks — OCC, the Office of Thrift Supervision, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The working theory is that consolidation would simplify the system and eliminate agency-shopping by banks that are seeking the most lenient overseer. The Treasury investigation, however, raises questions about whether consolidation alone would change entrenched attitudes. An unnamed top OCC official who supervised the Ocala National inspection team told the inspector general’s auditors that “he believed there was nothing OCC examiners should have done differently.” OCC examiners and a supervisor responsible for the bank declined the Investigative Fund’s requests for an interview. In their formal response to the Treasury, OCC officials acknowledged shortcomings in their oversight of Ocala National. The former owner and executives of Ocala National did not respond to requests to comment for this article. They have said publicly that they did nothing wrong and did not benefit from the flow of money in the bank’s final year to other companies in which they have stakes. The bank only failed, they have said, because of the overall financial crisis. ‘Uncontrolled Growth’ Ocala, population 53,000, is about 90 miles north of Tampa and the business and social hub of Marion County, a prosperous area of five times as many people. The community bank was owned and operated by a well-known family whose patriarch was Don Kay Jr., now 71. One of his sons — Kyle A. Kay, the bank’s vice president — presided over the city council for eight years, where he acquired a reputation for trying to cut taxes and expand retail development. The bank had been known for its conservative lending practices. But in the late 1990s that began to change. In 1997 and 1998, OCC examiners brought enforcement actions against the bank for what the inspector general’s report described as “uncontrolled loan growth, ineffective management and poor credit administration practices.” In a consent agreement, regulators compelled Ocala to appoint “a capable senior lending officer,” end “any deficiencies in bank management,” stop any lending without analyzing credit information and documenting the value of collateral, and to “obtain current and satisfactory credit information on all loans lacking such information,” among other requirements. The regulator also assessed fines of $5,000 for Don Kay and $2,500 for each of his two sons for “improper insider transactions,” federal bank records show. Then came the real estate bonanza. In 2004, the owner handed the reins to his son, Rance Kay, now 39. Under the new chief executive, the bank “aggressively” ramped up its construction and real estate loans, the Treasury inspector general’s review found. Construction loans soared in two years by some 400 percent, to $191 million. According to the review, between 2005 and 2007 the bank sometimes failed to fully assess the financial condition of borrowers and sometimes failed to get property appraisals. It made loans that were too large given the value of the property involved. Some construction loans equaled the prices builders expected to get when homes eventually sold. The bank grew at such a clip that by June 2006 money flying out the door for construction and land development loans outweighed capital by 694 percent – a concentration in lending unmatched at any other U.S. bank that year. As fast as the bank could process the loans, investment banks and other middlemen would scoop them up, bundle them as bonds, and sell them to investors. Those were the kind of troubled investments that soured when loans went bad and helped precipitate the financial crisis. “We never thought the secondary market would stop – that that valve would shut off,” said John Plunkett, a member of the bank’s board of directors. Plunkett’s family business — Triple Crown Homes, one of Ocala’s largest builders – was part of the boom. In 2005 it received an Ocala National loan to build on 125 lots just north of the city in a new development called Citra Highlands. “In my first board meeting, I thought, ‘You guys are doing great. This is better than building houses,’” Plunkett said. “And there’s no warranty.” ‘Pretty Hunky-Dory’ Where were the bank examiners? They were in the room, but unlike in the 1990s they did not push Ocala National to change its ways. They made recommendations and issued reports to the bank from their examinations – but left it to the bank to decide whether to do anything. And they gave the bank high grades on a report card of its practices and financial health. Records show that OCC examiners came to inspect Ocala National five times between 2004 and 2007. At times, the federal regulators gathered with the board of directors to discuss the bank’s fiscal health and technology. “When they met with us,” recalled Plunkett, “it was all pretty hunky dory.” As early as 2005, the bank’s overseers realized that all but 7 percent of the bank’s loan portfolio was tied up in construction and land development loans. According to the inspector general’s review, the examiners were worried that a downturn in real estate could significantly affect the bank and they recommended that the bank’s board limit its concentration on such loans. Instead, the bank increased lending, deepening its dependence on the real estate bubble that would eventually burst. By the fall of 2006, Ocala was obviously taking risks beyond overseers’ comfort levels. The OCC placed it on a “watch” list of potentially troubled banks. But the list is internal, kept within the bureaucracy. Meanwhile, from 2005 to the end of 2007 the OCC continued to assign the bank a grade of “2″ — the second-highest possible grade — on an agency report card. The grade, known as a “CAMELS” rating, gauges a bank’s overall health based on such factors as adequacy of capital, quality of assets and sensitivity to market risk on a scale of 1 (best) to 5 (worst). Banks with ratings of 1 or 2 are considered to present few, if any, supervisory concerns. By law, ratings are not disclosed to the public – for fear that low ratings could trigger a run on a bank. Along with top marks, the OCC merely offered recommendations to Ocala National’s executives – commentary routinely included in inspection reports known formally as “matters requiring attention.” Then, in 2007, examiners picked up more signs of trouble: Commercial loan officers lacked experience. The bank failed to identify $6 million in problem commercial real estate loans, creating an inaccurate picture of its condition. There was a net operating loss of $2.3 million. “OCC examiners repeatedly communicated to bank management concerns about rapid loan growth, high concentration in construction and land development loans, and poor credit underwriting and administration,” the inspector general’s report said. “Despite these concerns, however, OCC did not take strong action to force the bank to correct the problems. . . A more forceful approach should have been used sooner given the bank’s circumstances,” the review said. The OCC’s own enforcement policy requires examiners to deal with identified troubles promptly before they worsen or adversely affect a bank’s performance and viability. Among tools at their disposal, besides report cards, are the kind of formal enforcement actions that the regulators imposed on Ocala National in 1997 and 1998. Besides assessing civil money penalties and working out consent agreements, as the OCC did then, regulators can issue directives or seek court orders that would require prompt corrective action. Another bank action during 2007 caught the attention of the inspector general’s auditors. While incurring an operating loss, the bank paid dividends of $3.9 million to the bank’s holding company, whose majority shareholders included the bank’s owner and his family, and repurchased nonperforming loans held by a company owned by the bank owner’s son and five of the nine members of the bank’s board. “OCC should have more aggressively examined both of these matters,” the inspector general’s report stated. Support for the assertion that examiners should have expanded their inquiry appears in the OCC Comptroller’s Handbook – the formal document providing guidance to bank examiners. “When activities…in a bank, bank subsidiary or other related organization warrant additional attention, examiners should perform appropriate expanded examination procedures,” the handbook states. Death Spiral By the time the examiners took some action, in late 2007, it was too late. Amid soaring losses, the OCC worsened the Ocala bank’s report card – to the second-lowest rating, a “4″ – and in 2008 took more forceful and decisive steps, imposing requirements to lessen risk and raise capital. But the problems were too large and severe, and the market staggered downward. The bank was in a financial death spiral. It finally collapsed in January 2009, its bad assets covered by federal deposit insurance and its new owners lessening their acquisition costs by lowering interest rates on customers’ deposits. Loss to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.: $99.6 million. Each time banks are seized, the FDIC acquires whatever assets and liabilities are left and tries to find a purchaser. Customer deposits are secured by a fund that is supported by fees from member banks. With more than 130 bank failures so far this year, the fund has bled into the red, and federal officials now are scrambling to find ways to shore it up. Matthew Anderson, a partner at Oakland-based banking research firm Foresight Analytics, estimates that 3,000 financial institutions are at risk and 250 could fail in the next nine months. Today the Ocala region is among those struggling through the financial crisis. Empty homes, fallow lots and foreclosures dot the landscape. Of Plunkett’s 125-home subdivision, only 25 actually were built. The rest of Citra Highlands exists only on plat maps. A spokesman for the current Comptroller of the Currency – John C. Dugan, a 2005 Bush administration appointee retained by President Obama – said Dugan, too, would decline comment beyond an Aug. 25 formal letter responding to the inspector general’s post-mortem of Ocala. In that letter, Dugan wrote that he agreed “there were shortcomings in our execution of the supervisory process,” and that managers in conference calls would urge examiners to be more thorough and “assertive in identifying and following through on identified weaknesses in a timely manner.” Dugan also addressed the Treasury report’s concerns about the dividends and payments made by Ocala National, promising that the regulator would “reinforce to our examining staff that it is prudent to expand examination procedures for dividends and related organizations when warranted, particularly when payments may benefit bank management or board members.” In an October interview with the Ocala Star-Banner, Kyle Kay, 43, the bank’s former vice president and a city councilman, said that the family didn’t benefit from the payment of dividends to the bank’s holding company, ONB Financial Services Inc. He said the money was used by shareholders to pay corporate taxes and to cover the debt service on loans taken by the holding company to support the bank. His brother and chief executive, Rance Kay, told the newspaper that circumstances beyond his control led to the bank’s failure. “The market turned on us,” he said. Do you have information about this story? Send us a tip or submit a correction . Follow the Huffington Post Investigative Fund on Twitter or fan us on Facebook .

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Gordon Ramsay Flees the Kitchen as TV Fame Helps Rescue Restaurant Empire

December 11, 2009

By William Green Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) — On a gray morning in October, Gordon Ramsay bursts into the kitchen of his south London house, pop music blaring from the radio. At the heart of the room stands a 67,000-pound ($109,000) French cooking range that weighs 2.5 tons and had to be lowered by crane into the celebrity chef’s home. Ramsay, who is 6 feet 2 inches (1.88 meters) tall and weighs 215 pounds (98 kilograms), is wearing jeans, a tight black T-shirt that accentuates his muscles and a Bell & Ross watch — a Swiss brand marketed to soldiers, bomb-disposal experts and other “men facing extreme situations.” The 43-year-old Scot pours himself a juice, sits at the kitchen table and looks back on his own extreme situation: a year in which his global restaurant empire almost went bankrupt. In the fall of 2008, his London-based Gordon Ramsay Holdings Ltd . breached the covenants on a 10.5 million-pound loan and overdraft facility from Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc . The bank hired KPMG to perform an independent review of the firm, 69 percent of which is owned by Ramsay and 31 percent by his father-in-law, Chris Hutcheson. In late December, Ramsay says, KPMG recommended that the company declare bankruptcy, fire hundreds of people and close all but its best-performing restaurants. ‘On the Line’ “Everything was on the line,” Ramsay says. “December, January, February and March were the most highly pressurized, s- To contact the reporter on this story: William Green in London at wgreen6@bloomberg.net .

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Bad Deals by Local Governments Geithner Can’t Do: Joe Mysak

December 9, 2009

Commentary by Joe Mysak Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) — Municipal bond issuers should all be required to invest the money they borrow with the U.S. Treasury Department rather than in the array of custom-made contracts they now buy from banks. That’s the opinion of Christopher Taylor , a consultant who was executive director of the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board from 1978 to 2007. It’s hard to argue, after looking at the lawsuits filed this fall by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission, and a series of lawsuits filed by California municipalities. In cases where municipalities asked for bids to work on their bond proceeds, the auctions weren’t competitive. Brokers running the sales coached the bidders, and the bidders talked among themselves. Sometimes, in order to comply with auction rules requiring a minimum number of participants, brokers would ask banks to submit “courtesy,” or intentionally losing, bids. In California, this resulted in spreads between the winning and losing bids of as much as 145 basis points. An analysis of 89 auctions found the median spread between bids was about 25 basis points. When issuers chose to award reinvestment business through negotiation, securities firms funneled money to local broker- dealers favored by the politicians who awarded the business. In Jefferson County, Alabama, bankers for J.P. Morgan Securities paid $8.2 million over a two-year period to firms that had no role in various transactions, in order to win the reinvestment contract for JPMorgan Chase Bank. The U.S. Treasury, by comparison, sells its bonds and notes, and it has sold almost $2 trillion this year, at public auction. It doesn’t rely on brokers to set up those sales. ‘Total Fiction’ Taken together, these cases depict a business — assisting municipalities to reinvest the proceeds of bond issues — that seems to be smashed beyond repair. Rather than, in the words of one banker quoted in the lawsuits, “kicking each other’s teeth out” — which is sort of what businesses are supposed to do when they compete — investment brokers and providers cooperated with each other as they fleeced the public. The centerpiece of a drama that is likely to reform the municipal bond market, or kill it, is the indictment of CDR Financial Products Inc. of Beverly Hills, California, its founder and two employees. The case is the first salvo in the government’s multiyear inquiry into anticompetitive practices. The government says CDR ensured that certain firms won some business, passed on other transactions and made bogus bids when necessary, in return for kickbacks. CDR, in a statement published on its Web site, says the charges are “a total fiction based on a lack of understanding of the municipal reinvestment market.” Suing Everybody For those keeping score, the Justice Department is prosecuting CDR, while the SEC settled with J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. and is suing its ex-bankers, Charles LeCroy and Douglas MacFaddin , in connection with the business they did in Jefferson County. A number of California municipalities are suing just about everybody: Bank of America Corp., Merrill Lynch & Co., UBS AG, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citibank NA, Morgan Stanley, Wachovia Bank, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., CDR, Investment Management Advisory Group Inc. and 37 others who have worked in the reinvestment-of-proceeds business. Most of them have declined to comment. Bank of America pointed out that it was cooperating with the government. Documentary Evidence Last year, a number of jurisdictions filed complaints against the dealers who worked on their swaps and derivatives, piggybacking on the news reports of the Justice Department and SEC investigation. These lawsuits were long on quotations from the press and a vague sense of outrage, short on substance. No more. The California lawsuits — and here I refer to one filed by the Sacramento Municipal Utility District, although all the complaints are related — are based on both original research and oral and documentary evidence provided by Bank of America. In February 2007, the bank said it had entered into an agreement with the Justice Department. In return for leniency, the bank agreed to tell all. According to the lawsuit, the bank had asked for leniency in 2004, and began cooperating with the feds at that time. ‘Conspiratorial Conduct’ The 181-page complaint is stuffed with quotes, examples and anecdotes, and analyses of those auctions that don’t look much like auctions. “So pervasive was the conspiratorial conduct at the dominant providers of municipal derivatives,” the complaint says, “that it became accepted practice for the conduct to occur and industry participants were surprised not when it occurred, but rather when it did not.” Reading these documents, you have to wonder whether it is even possible to fix the reinvestment-of-proceeds business. I asked ex-MSRB head Taylor, who first floated the idea of requiring issuers to reinvest all their bond proceeds in Treasury securities back in February, whether he had seen the various lawsuits. He had. He expects more. And he still thinks all issuers should be required to reinvest in Treasuries. “At a time when the government is borrowing heavily, the U.S. taxpayers should get some of the benefit by paying the low rates at which issuers borrow,” Taylor e-mailed. “The feds could track all deals and all use-of-proceeds at the same time. The money saved by the government in the first year or so would more than pay for the setup costs of such a system.” This is bold thinking. Maybe that’s what the municipal market needs as it confronts its biggest scandal ever. ( Joe Mysak is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.) Click on “Send Comment” in the sidebar display to send a letter to the editor. To contact the writer of this column: Joe Mysak in New York at jmysakjr@bloomberg.net

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Greece’s Rating Downgraded to BBB+ From A- by Fitch; Outlook Is Negative

December 8, 2009

By Anna Rascouet Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) — Greek stocks and government bonds tumbled on mounting concern the nation may struggle to meet its debt commitments as public finances deteriorate. The benchmark Athens Stock Exchange General Index dropped as much as 6.1 percent, its biggest intraday decline since Nov. 26. The yield on the government two-year note rose the most since at least November 2008. Fitch Ratings cut Greece one step to BBB+ today, the third-lowest investment grade. Standard & Poor’s yesterday put Greece’s A- rating on watch for a possible downgrade, signaling it may be reduced within two months. “Greek bonds were already tanking on the S&P negative outlook and Fitch gave their fall a boost,” said David Schnautz , a fixed-income strategist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “It’s a long-term sustainability problem. Now the government has to tell the Greek public that something needs to be fixed.” Greece, the lowest-rated country in the euro region, is struggling to shore up its finances amid a year-long recession. Gross domestic product shrank 1.7 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the National Statistics Office said Dec. 4. The socialist government of Prime Minister George Papandreou , elected in October, plans to cut the budget deficit to 9.1 percent of gross domestic product next year, from 12.7 percent this year. The measures, including a partial freeze on public-sector pay, “are unlikely by themselves to alter Greece’s medium-term fiscal dynamics,” given the prospects of high deficits, debt and sluggish economic growth, S&P said yesterday. Lack of Credibility Greece is committed to a ‘fair’ fiscal consolidation and will submit a supplementary budget if needed, the country’s Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou told reporters in Athens today. The downgrade reflects a lack of credibility, he said. The decline in the ASE General Index brought its slump since Oct. 14 to 25 percent. It was the worst-performing index among 18 western European benchmarks today. National Bank of Greece SA , the nation’s biggest lender, fell as much as 10 percent to its lowest level since July . EFG Eurobank Ergasias , the second-largest, sank as much as 7.8 percent. Piraeus Bank SA slid as much as 9.2 percent. “The news is alarming for the economy and the banking sector in specific,” said Nikos Lianeris , an analyst at Athens- based Alpha Finance Investment Services SA. “The possibility of further rating downgrades increases pressure on the government to announce a set of decisive measures in order to bring the deficit down. Such a move would help restore confidence in the market.” 2008 Precedent The yield on the two-year Greek note jumped 55 basis points to 2.60 percent, the highest level since April 27, as of 5:30 p.m. in Athens. The increase matched the 55 basis-point gain on Nov. 20 last year, when the Labor Department reported the highest number of jobless claims since 1992. The yield on the 10-year security climbed as much as 25 basis points to 5.39 percent today. European Union officials are increasing pressure on the Greek government to take lasting measures to reduce the deficit, the largest this year in the 27-nation European Union. Greece is facing a “very difficult” situation and needs to take “courageous” decisions to counter the budget deficit, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet told the European Parliament in Brussels yesterday. Yield Spread Today’s declines for Greek debt drove the premium investors demand to hold 10-year government bonds over German bunds, Europe’s benchmark securities, to as high as 225 basis points, or 2.25 percentage points, the most since April 21. The comparable premium for Ireland was 171 basis points. Portugal’s was 65 basis points and Spain’s was 61 basis points. The declines may offer investors a buying opportunity, according to Michiel de Bruin , head of European government bonds in Amsterdam at F&C Asset Management Plc, which manages $220 billion. “The market seems to be over-reacting a bit,” he said. “News flows from Greece haven’t been very pretty over the past few weeks, but most of that is already in the price. Greece does have a fiscal problem, but they are not the only one in the region. I see the current spread as attractive.” The cost of protecting against losses on Greek government debt through credit-default swaps rose 20.5 basis points to 211, the highest level since March, according to CMA DataVision prices. That’s higher than Turkey, Estonia and Russia, Bloomberg data showed. ‘Exposed to Shocks’ “The likely rise in public debt to more than 120 percent of GDP next year and further to 125 percent in 2011 would leave the public finances highly exposed to shocks,” Fitch analysts Chris Pryce and Paul Rawkins in London wrote today in a report. Fitch hasn’t rated Greek debt BBB+ since March 2000, when it upgraded it from BBB. An S&P downgrade for Greece before year-end would be the second in 2009. The company lowered the rating to A- from A on Jan. 14, Greece’s lowest grade since November 1999, when it was raised from BBB, S&P’s second-lowest investment grade. Moody’s Investors Service lowered the outlook on Greece’s A1 rating to “negative” on Oct. 29. To contact the reporter on this story: Anna Rascouet in London at arascouet@bloomberg.net

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Timothy D. Lytton: Lawsuits Once Again Help Expose Clergy Sexual Abuse

December 7, 2009

News Coverage of Cardinal Edward M. Egan’s cover up of clergy sexual abuse in the 1990s while he was the bishop of Bridgeport would be shocking if it weren’t so familiar. The list of high ranking Catholic Church officials who failed to report credible allegations of child sexual abuse by priests to law enforcement includes the most prominent prelates of this generation: Cardinal Joseph Bernadin in Chicago, Cardinal Bernard Law in Boston, Cardinal Anthony Bevilacqua in Philadelphia, and Cardinal Roger Mahony in Los Angeles. The Egan case does, however, highlight one feature of this ongoing scandal that is frequently overlooked: the role that civil lawsuits have played in uncovering most of what we know about clergy sexual abuse in the Catholic Church and in motivating Church officials to address the problem. To begin with, plaintiffs’ have lawyers compelled Church officials to produce secret files concerning abuse allegations and to provide sworn testimony about their own failures to adequately address the problem. Media reports about Cardinal Egan’s failures in Bridgeport are based on more than 12,000 pages of memos, church records, and testimony from 23 lawsuits against the diocese. Indeed, most media coverage of the scandal–dating back to the early 1980s–has been based on these types of litigation documents. Civil lawsuits have also shaped our understanding of the clergy sexual abuse scandal as an institutional failure on the part of Church leaders. Throughout the scandal, some within the Church have attempted to focus attention exclusively on the perpetrators, suggesting that clergy sexual abuse is merely a matter of “a few bad apples.” Others have argued that the whole matter has been blown out of proportion by plaintiffs’ lawyers and their clients seeking to make money off of the scandal by filing lawsuits. One also frequently hears suggestions that news coverage of the scandal is motivated by anti-Catholic media bias. Indeed, Cardinal Egan’s successor, Archbishop Timothy Dolan leveled this very accusation against the New York Times this fall. By contrast, civil lawsuits have focused attention on the failures of Church officials. Plaintiffs’ lawyers sue large institutional defendants because they are better able to pay large settlements and judgments, and so clergy sexual abuse lawsuits have emphasized the failure of diocesan officials–especially bishops–to protect children from known abusers. Media coverage of the scandal has been heavily influenced by this framing of clergy sexual abuse as an institutional failure on the part of Church officials. Litigation and trials have traditionally provided the type of drama that makes them attractive to journalists seeking to draw in readers. In addition, documents filed in court and sworn testimony provide the kind of credible sources of information that journalists like to rely upon. By framing clergy sexual abuse as a problem of institutional failure on the part of Church officials, civil lawsuits have also motivated dioceses around the country to institute new programs to prevent sexual abuse before it occurs and to report credible allegations of sexual abuse when it does happen. The U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops reports that over 90 percent of dioceses have instituted such programs and have trained over 7 million people in preventing, investigating, and reporting child sexual abuse. It is inconceivable that so many U.S. bishops would have instituted such ambitious efforts to address clergy sexual abuse in the absence of the intense media coverage and public attention generated by civil lawsuits–not to mention the liability exposure. It has been 25 years since the first civil lawsuits were filed against Catholic Church officials for clergy sexual abuse, and much progress has been made as a result of them. That leading prelates such as Cardinal Egan are still fighting so hard to hide the record of their misdeeds indicates that there is more work to be done and that civil lawsuits against Church officials may still have a role in uncovering the truth, highlighting the misdeeds of officials, and providing much needed pressure for reform.

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Romanian Opposition Leader Geoana Claims Victory in Presidential Election

December 6, 2009

By Adam Brown and Irina Savu Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) — Romanian opposition leader Mircea Geoana is leading President Traian Basescu for the right to establish a government as the Balkan nation fights off the worst recession since the fall of communism, exit polls showed. Social Democratic Party Chairman Geoana, 51, took 52 percent of the vote, compared with 48 percent for Basescu, according to an exit poll released by INSOMAR pollster. Geoana, whose party was formed by ex-communist officials after the overthrow of dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in 1989, would be tasked with picking a new prime minister to replace Emil Boc , whose Cabinet collapsed in October. The European Union’s second-poorest nation has been unable to pass a 2010 budget, repair ties with the International Monetary Fund , overhaul taxes and fight a recession that saw a 7.1 percent economic contraction in the third quarter. To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Brown in Bucharest at abrown23@bloomberg.net ;

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Elizabeth Warren: America Without a Middle Class

December 3, 2009

Can you imagine an America without a strong middle class? If you can, would it still be America as we know it? Today, one in five Americans is unemployed, underemployed or just plain out of work . One in nine families can’t make the minimum payment on their credit cards. One in eight mortgages is in default or foreclosure . One in eight Americans is on food stamps . More than 120,000 families are filing for bankruptcy every month. The economic crisis has wiped more than $5 trillion from pensions and savings , has left family balance sheets upside down, and threatens to put ten million homeowners out on the street . Families have survived the ups and downs of economic booms and busts for a long time, but the fall-behind during the busts has gotten worse while the surge-ahead during the booms has stalled out. In the boom of the 1960s, for example, median family income jumped by 33% (adjusted for inflation). But the boom of the 2000s resulted in an almost-imperceptible 1.6% increase for the typical family. While Wall Street executives and others who owned lots of stock celebrated how good the recovery was for them, middle class families were left empty-handed. The crisis facing the middle class started more than a generation ago. Even as productivity rose, the wages of the average fully-employed male have been flat since the 1970s. But core expenses kept going up. By the early 2000s, families were spending twice as much (adjusted for inflation) on mortgages than they did a generation ago — for a house that was, on average, only ten percent bigger and 25 years older. They also had to pay twice as much to hang on to their health insurance. To cope, millions of families put a second parent into the workforce. But higher housing and medical costs combined with new expenses for child care, the costs of a second car to get to work and higher taxes combined to squeeze families even harder . Even with two incomes, they tightened their belts. Families today spend less than they did a generation ago on food, clothing, furniture, appliances, and other flexible purchases — but it hasn’t been enough to save them. Today’s families have spent all their income, have spent all their savings, and have gone into debt to pay for college, to cover serious medical problems, and just to stay afloat a little while longer. Through it all, families never asked for a handout from anyone, especially Washington. They were left to go on their own, working harder, squeezing nickels, and taking care of themselves. But their economic boats have been taking on water for years, and now the crisis has swamped millions of middle class families. The contrast with the big banks could not be sharper. While the middle class has been caught in an economic vise, the financial industry that was supposed to serve them has prospered at their expense. Consumer banking — selling debt to middle class families — has been a gold mine . Boring banking has given way to creative banking, and the industry has generated tens of billions of dollars annually in fees made possible by deceptive and dangerous terms buried in the fine print of opaque, incomprehensible, and largely unregulated contracts. And when various forms of this creative banking triggered economic crisis, the banks went to Washington for a handout . All the while, top executives kept their jobs and retained their bonuses. Even though the tax dollars that supported the bailout came largely from middle class families — from people already working hard to make ends meet — the beneficiaries of those tax dollars are now lobbying Congress to preserve the rules that had let those huge banks feast off the middle class. Pundits talk about “populist rage” as a way to trivialize the anger and fear coursing through the middle class. But they have it wrong. Families understand with crystalline clarity that the rules they have played by are not the same rules that govern Wall Street. They understand that no American family is “too big to fail.” They recognize that business models have shifted and that big banks are pulling out all the stops to squeeze families and boost revenues. They understand that their economic security is under assault and that leaving consumer debt effectively unregulated does not work. Families are ready for change. According to polls, large majorities of Americans have welcomed the Obama Administration’s proposal for a new Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA). The CFPA would be answerable to consumers — not to banks and not to Wall Street. The agency would have the power to end tricks-and-traps pricing and to start leveling the playing field so that consumers have the tools they need to compare prices and manage their money. The response of the big banks has been to swing into action against the Agency, fighting with all their lobbying might to keep business-as-usual. They are pulling out all the stops to kill the agency before it is born. And if those practices crush millions more families, who cares — so long as the profits stay high and the bonuses keep coming. America today has plenty of rich and super-rich. But it has far more families who did all the right things, but who still have no real security. Going to college and finding a good job no longer guarantee economic safety. Paying for a child’s education and setting aside enough for a decent retirement have become distant dreams. Tens of millions of once-secure middle class families now live paycheck to paycheck, watching as their debts pile up and worrying about whether a pink slip or a bad diagnosis will send them hurtling over an economic cliff. America without a strong middle class? Unthinkable, but the once-solid foundation is shaking. Elizabeth Warren is the Leo Gottlieb Professor of Law at Harvard and is currently the Chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel.

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Rep. Jackie Speier’s Tough Bank Amendment Passes With Room Nearly Empty

November 20, 2009

Don’t sleep on Jackie Speier. The freshman Democrat from California came into the House Financial Services Committee room Thursday ready to fight for her long-shot amendment to limit the leverage ratio for big banks. “I expected a roll call vote,” said Speier, fresh off a star turn on the Colbert Report. Lobbyists and committee staffers expected that the amendment — which would mandate that banks essentially could not lend out or invest more than 12 dollars for every dollar they keep in reserve — would only get a roll call and that it’d be soundly defeated, bounced by a coalition of Republicans and bank-friendly Democrats, who call themselves “New Democrats.” Instead, there were barely any lawmakers in their seats when her amendment came up during an all-day debate on comprehensive financial regulatory reform. One of the two or three Republicans in the room asked for a roll call, but then quickly reconsidered and withdrew the request. It passed by a unanimous voice vote. The amendment makes sense, but rationality alone is rarely enough to get legislation through committee. The banks long fought to eliminate the cap and finally succeeded in 2004, a victory that is partially to blame for the financial crisis as over-leveraged banks ran short on capital. But when the vote was called Thursday, the GOP members present didn’t want to put their names to that agenda. “I was thrilled,” said Speier, who wouldn’t confess to being surprised that she won. She guessed, instead, that the initial objection was simply Pavlovian. “There’s a knee-jerk reaction to just oppose everything on the other side,” she told HuffPost. “I think what my Republican friends realized was that after going through this financial nightmare, to somehow argue against putting a leverage cap when we know that what happened was many of these companies — the Bear Sterns, the Merrills, the Lehmans, were all leveraged 30-1 — if we really are going to be real about tamping down that kind of behavior in the future, coming up with a reasonable leverage cap makes sense.” It wouldn’t be a novel idea. Until 2004, the Securities and Exchange Commission limited leverage ratios to 12 to one. Speier’s cap would only re-apply a cap to financial institutions deemed to be a risk to the overall financial system. Final victory in the committee, however, still awaits. Just before a final vote was called, a bloc of Democrats from the Congressional Black Caucus demanded the vote be put off, sending a message to the White House that more needs to be done to improve the job situation. The New York Times , in the fall of 2008, reported that on April 28, 2004, five members of the Securities and Exchange Commission met in a basement hearing room to hear “an urgent plea by the big investment banks.” They wanted an exemption for their brokerage units from an old regulation that limited the amount of debt they could take on. The exemption would unshackle billions of dollars held in reserve as a cushion against losses on their investments. Those funds could then flow up to the parent company, enabling it to invest in the fast-growing but opaque world of mortgage-backed securities; credit derivatives, a form of insurance for bond holders; and other exotic instruments. The five investment banks led the charge, including Goldman Sachs, which was headed by Henry M. Paulson Jr. Two years later, he left to become Treasury secretary. A lone dissenter — a software consultant and expert on risk management — weighed in from Indiana with a two-page letter to warn the commission that the move was a grave mistake. He never heard back from Washington. One commissioner, Harvey J. Goldschmid, questioned the staff about the consequences of the proposed exemption. It would only be available for the largest firms, he was reassuringly told — those with assets greater than $5 billion. “We’ve said these are the big guys,” Mr. Goldschmid said, provoking nervous laughter, “but that means if anything goes wrong, it’s going to be an awfully big mess.” It was. “There’s a pattern here,” says Speier. “We put these good laws in place, whether it’s Glass-Steagall or, in that case the SEC cap. But then the industry comes to us and says, ‘Oh, this is cramping our style. We could make’ — of course they don’t say it this way — ‘we could make so much more money if you just lifted this cap.’ And they were right. They made a lot of money and they also brought the entire country to its knees.” Get HuffPost Politics On Facebook and Twitter!

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Sam Gustin: Charity case: Goldman Sachs, Warren Buffett launch small-biz program

November 18, 2009

Just over 100 years ago, the sociologist Max Weber wrote his seminal book, The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism, in which he portrayed the pursuit of profit as virtuous and described work as a kind of religious duty. The attainment of wealth was seen as the fruit of labor, a blessing from God in return for hard work, piety and frugality. Weber comes to mind thinking of the recent comment from Goldman Sachs (GS) Chairman and CEO Lloyd Blankfein (pictured) that the world’s most successful bank is doing “God’s work.” It’s hard to imagine that $16.7 billion in executive bonuses to millionaire bankers during a crippling recession is what Weber had in mind. In an effort to put its money where Blankfein’s God-talk is, Goldman Sachs has announced it will partner with Warren Buffett, the very personification of virtuous capitalism, in a $500 million project to help small businesses. As Stephen Kalberg, an Affiliate at the Center for European Studies at Harvard University, wrote in an introduction to later editions of the book, Weber argued that “the rise of modern capitalism involves a ‘tempering’ of all acquisitive desires; indeed such a ‘restraining’ of avarice — and its channeling into a methodological orientation of work — is indispensable for the systematic organization of work and production in permanent businesses.” In Tuesday’s announcement, Goldman Sachs said it has pledged to the small business project just over 3% — $500 million — of what it hopes to pay its bankers and traders in bonuses this year. “Small businesses play a vital role in creating jobs and growth in America’s economy,” said Blankfein. “We are pleased to work with our partners in this initiative to support small-business owners, particularly those in underserved communities.” Through the 10,000 Small Businesses project, Goldman Sachs will contribute $200 million in educational grants and offer “practical business education delivered through partnerships between local community colleges, universities and other institutions.” The first partner will be La Guardia Community College in Queens, N.Y. Goldman will also participate in a “mentoring and networking” program with “national and local” partners. And it will invest $300 million “through a combination of lending and philanthropic support” to “small businesses in underserved communities.” Vague Mea Culpa In a savvy move, the bank — known on Wall Street as “Goldmine Sachs” for its prodigious money-making — has teamed up with Buffett, the world’s most famous investor and the model of patient, long-term value investing — which has the veneer of more virtue than the high-volume digital speed-trading that now characterizes so much of finance. Buffett also happens to be Goldman’s largest investor, so it’s in his interest to improve the public image of the bank, which has endured a slew of negative publicity in the wake of the financial collapse and ensuing recession. At an investor conference Tuesday, Blankfein offered up a vague mea culpa. “We participated in things that were clearly wrong and have reason to regret,” he said, according to The New York Times, which reported that the firm had hired Brunswick, a prominent PR firm. “We apologize.” In the fall of 2008, at the height of the financial panic, Buffett invested $5 billion in Goldman Sachs in what amounted to a symbolic vote of confidence in Wall Street as the financial system supposedly teetered on the brink of collapse. Of course, at the bargain-basement price Buffett received, the investment will surely pay off in spades for the bridge aficionado. But negative publicity of the sort Goldman has seen lately can only impose downward pressure on his investment. And Warren Buffett takes care of his investments. Read the rest of this post at DailyFinance

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UPDATE 1-B.Land signals property revival with NAV rise

November 17, 2009

The bluechip real estate company said its net asset value rose 3.1 percent to 372 pence a share in its fiscal second quarter, trimming the fall since March to 6.5 percent

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Gorbachev Says U.S. Can’t Win in Afghanistan Even With Additional Troops

November 10, 2009

By Chris Burns and Patrick Donahue Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) — Former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev , drawing on his experience of military failure in Afghanistan in the 1980s, said the U.S. can’t win the conflict there and should begin pulling out its soldiers. Afghanistan, where U.S. and NATO forces are battling a Taliban-led insurgency, is too fragmented between clans to be controlled militarily, Gorbachev, 78, said in an interview today in Berlin. While he said President Barack Obama would be unlikely to take his advice, Gorbachev said he saw no chance of success even with more U.S. troops. “I believe that there is no prospect of a military solution,” Gorbachev said in Russian through a translator. “What we need is the reconciliation of Afghan society — and they should be preparing the ground for withdrawal rather than additional troops.” Gorbachev , who became general secretary of the ruling Communist Party in 1985, at age 54, initiated a restructuring program known as perestroika that eventually led to the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991. He spoke a day after he joined German Chancellor Angela Merkel and current world leaders in the German capital to mark the fall of the Berlin Wall 20 years ago. As Soviet leader, he pursued a policy of detente with the U.S. while overseeing the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in 1989 after grappling with an unsuccessful decade-long presence in the country. Disputed Election Obama is considering a military request to send as many as 40,000 more U.S. soldiers to Afghanistan, on top of the 68,000 due to be stationed there by the end of the year. A review has been complicated by increased Taliban attacks and by a disputed victory for the incumbent, Hamid Karzai , in this year’s presidential election. Speaking in Berlin yesterday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton demanded that Karzai step up efforts to tackle corruption. Karzai was re-appointed president by Afghanistan’s electoral commissioners Nov. 2 following former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah’s decision to pull out of a runoff election. In response to an Oct. 28 attack on United Nations staff by Taliban militants that killed five of the agency’s workers in a Kabul guesthouse, the UN last week announced it would move about 600 of its international staff members and remove some from the country. Gorbachev said he hasn’t always seen eye to eye with U.S. leaders. He at first referred to President Ronald Reagan as “a real dinosaur, a man from the past,” he said today. “Do you think that Reagan had a better view of me? He said ‘Gorbachev is a die-hard Bolshevik.’ So that was the beginning.” To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Burns in Berlin at cwburns@bloomberg.net ; Patrick Donahue in Berlin at at pdonahue1@bloomberg.net .

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Berlin Wall Collapse Sparks German Boom, Confounds Skeptics: Chart of Day

November 6, 2009

By Christiane Lenzner and Julie Cruz Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) — The toppling of the Berlin Wall 20 years ago sparked a surge in German stocks and bonds, confounding economists who’d predicted the cost of unifying East and West Germany would stunt economic growth. The CHART OF THE DAY shows the benchmark DAX Index of equities and the REX Performance Index, a measure of German government bonds, since 1989. Both outperformed gold and the pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index. The chart also shows Germany’s annual per-capita gross domestic product until the end of last year. The cost of unifying East and West Germany was 2 trillion euros ($2.97 trillion), according to a study by Klaus Schroeder, professor at Berlin’s Free University, published Oct. 28. Investors say that cost has paid off as the fall of Europe’s Iron Curtain boosted global trade. “It opened up economies in Eastern Europe,” said Trudbert Merkel , manager of Deka Investment GmbH’s $5 billion Dekafonds in Frankfurt. “Germany was able to maintain its top spot in the export business and become less dependent on the U.S. The beginning of globalization helped soften the costs of the reunification.” The DAX has more than tripled since Nov. 9, 1989, when the East German government allowed Berliners to breach the wall that had divided their city for 28 years. (To save a copy of the chart, click here.) To contact the reporters on this story: Christiane Lenzner in Frankfurt at clenzner@bloomberg.net ; Julie Cruz in Frankfurt at jcruz6@bloomberg.net .

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Bon Jovi, Barenboim Celebrate Fall of Berlin Wall With Dominos, Fireworks

November 6, 2009

Preview by Catherine Hickley Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) — Daniel Barenboim , who was in town the night the Berlin Wall came down in 1989, is joining Bon Jovi , Mikhail Gorbachev , Lech Walesa and Hillary Clinton to celebrate the 20th anniversary. The 5 million euro ($7.4 million) party opens at 7 p.m. on Nov. 9, with Barenboim conducting the Staatskapelle Berlin at the Brandenburg Gate. The program comprises an excerpt from Richard Wagner’s “Lohengrin,” Arnold Schoenberg’s “A Survivor From Warsaw,” the fourth movement of Ludwig van Beethoven’s seventh symphony and a piece by the composer Friedrich Goldmann. The fall of the wall “has changed so much of Europe for the better,” Barenboim said in an interview at the Berlin Staatsoper , where he is chief conductor. “It has given so many thousands, probably millions of people a better existence.” Some 1,000 giant dominos will topple along the former path of the wall on the evening of Nov. 9, the night when, 20 years ago, bewildered guards allowed streams of East Germans through the most heavily fortified border in the world. Five months later, East Germany held its first democratic election and within a year, East and West were reunified. The dominos, 2.5 meters high, have been illustrated by school children and students under the patronage of political leaders such as Nelson Mandela and Vaclav Havel and with the help of artists. Stretching 1.5 kilometers from Potsdamer Platz to the Reichstag, the parliament building, they are on view to the public from tomorrow. They represent “the chain reaction that the fall of the wall sparked off in Europe and the world,” according to a statement by the organizers . Excited Musicians On that fateful day in 1989, “I was recording a Mozart opera, ‘Cosi Fan Tutte,’ with the Berlin Philharmonic ,” Barenboim recalled. “On the Friday morning, we had a session, and the orchestra was in great agitation. They wanted to do a concert for the inhabitants of East Berlin.” Barenboim described people lining up all morning for tickets. Though the Nov. 12 concert was free, only those holding an East German identity card were given tickets. “For most of them it was the first time hearing the Berlin Philharmonic, and the first time in the Philharmonie” concert hall, Barenboim said. “It was wonderful.” For the anniversary “Fest der Freiheit” (Freedom Festival), the New Jersey rock band Bon Jovi will perform their current single, “We Weren’t Born to Follow,” on an outdoor stage at the Brandenburg Gate, the backdrop for scenes of jubilation and reconciliation as Germans from East and West scaled the wall 20 years ago. Fireworks Finale Paul van Dyk , an electronic dance music DJ and producer who left East Germany shortly before the fall of the wall, is composing a hymn called “We Are One” to be performed at the end of the concert. As the last domino falls, a firework display will begin. As well as Clinton and German Chancellor Angela Merkel , speakers will include U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown , French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev as representatives of the four powers that occupied Germany after World War II. Gorbachev and Hans-Dietrich Genscher , West German foreign minister in 1989, will also speak. Giant screens will be erected to project the speeches and performances along the route of the dominos. Berlin Mayor Klaus Wowereit told a news conference in October that he is expecting people to come for the weekend from across Germany and Europe. Commemorating the fall of the Berlin Wall is all the more important as a generation of Germans who never experienced it grows up, Wowereit said. “Many people now don’t understand the significance of the fall of the wall, because they never knew the horror of it,” the mayor said. For more information on the “Fest der Freiheit,” go to http://www.mauerfall09.de/ . Sponsors of the domino spectacle include Coca-Cola Co., Fiat SpA’s Lancia Automobiles SpA, Berlin gas supplier Gasag Berliner Gaswerke AG and advertising company Wall AG. To contact the reporter on the story: Catherine Hickley in Berlin at chickley@bloomberg.net .

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Beyonce Tops MTV Europe Awards; Eminem, U2, Jay-Z Victorious in Berlin

November 6, 2009

By Mark Beech Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) — Beyonce Knowles was the biggest winner at the 2009 MTV Europe Awards in Berlin last night. The 28-year-old singer, writer and producer took home three trophies, for best female star, best song and best video. Her husband, Jay-Z, won the Best Urban category and Eminem was named best male star. U2 was honored as best live act, in the Irish band’s third win since the MTV Europe Music Awards debuted in 1994. The quartet performed “Sunday, Bloody Sunday” at the Brandenburg Gate in front of 10,000 fans. The main ceremony was held at the O2 World in the German capital to commemorate the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Lady Gaga was named best new act while Green Day took the Best Rock title. The local crowd cheered as German rock band Tokio Hotel became best group. The awards were decided by online votes. ( Mark Beech writes for Bloomberg News and is the author of “The Dictionary of Rock and Pop Names.” The opinions expressed are his own.) To contact the writer on the story: Mark Beech in London at mbeech@bloomberg.net .

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Tyranny of Distance Curbs Australian Hedge Fund Revival in Post-Madoff Era

November 5, 2009

By Malcolm Scott Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) — After a decade running Sydney-based hedge fund Commodity Strategies Ltd. , founder Rob Holroyd is planning a move to New York or Switzerland in search of cash. Investors have increased due-diligence after Bernard Madoff’s Ponzi scheme, and scrutiny is likely to be heightened following hedge-fund manager Raj Rajaratnam’s insider trading case, Holroyd said. That’s hampering his bid to boost assets to $2 billion from about $170 million as overseas investors aren’t willing to spend the time and money needed to complete reviews of Australian-based funds, he said in an interview from New York. “People keep saying, ‘you must be crazy if you think you can run your business from Sydney,’” he said. “This whole Madoff thing has really scared the living daylights out of people. The whole level of ‘we need to keep an eye on these guys if we’re allocating them money’ has gone up significantly.” While Australia weathered the financial crisis better than most developed economies, its hedge fund industry didn’t. Assets managed by the nation’s hedge funds plunged 43 percent from a 2007 peak to August, according to data from industry researcher Eurekahedge Pte, compared with a 26 percent drop globally. Investors looking at Asia-Pacific managers tend to head to Singapore, which has grown its industry from near zero in 1997, or Hong Kong, where most China-focused funds are based, Eurekahedge said in its September report. Meanwhile Australia, among the region’s first hedge-fund centers, is “a little far off, thus less accessible and more expensive to reach,” it said. The decision to bypass Australia comes even as its managers outperform this year. Single funds returned 17.6 percent in the nine months to September, according to Australian Fund Monitors , compared with the Eurekahedge Fund Index’s 16 percent advance. ‘Not Recovered’ “We are seeing investors traveling to Asia again this fall, though the numbers traveling onto Australia have not recovered by the same level as yet,” said James Fallon , director, financing sales Asia-Pacific at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong. Platypus Capital Management in July said it was liquidating its long-short Asian and Australian hedge funds, citing difficulties attracting capital in a “post-Madoff world.” The Sydney-based firm, which had about $42 million in assets, said it would return funds to investors because it didn’t have a “viable size in the industry as it currently exists.” ‘Tyranny of Distance’ “There is still and will always be a reluctance to invest in Australian managers while Australia remains an eight hour flight from Singapore, a 10 hour flight from Hong Kong and a 22 hour flight from New York or from Europe,” said Chris Gosselin , chief executive officer of Sydney-based industry researcher Australian Fund Monitors. “Australia always has a tyranny of distance problem.” 36 South Investment Managers Ltd. , whose Black Swan Fund more than tripled in 2008, moved to London from Auckland this year to boost assets under management after investors overlooked the manager because of its location, co-founder Jerry Haworth said in March. Fortitude Capital’s Absolute Return Trust tumbled to around A$85 million ($77 million) from about A$180 million in October last year after redemptions, including from investors who lost money with Madoff , founder and Managing Director John Corr said in an interview in September. Madoff pleaded guilty in March and is serving a 150-year prison term for using money from new investors to pay earlier ones in what’s thought to be the biggest Ponzi scheme in U.S. history. Rajaratnam , the founder of New York-based Galleon Group, was arrested on Oct. 16 in what U.S. prosecutors called the biggest insider-trading ring targeting a hedge fund. Diversification At Platinum Asset Management , Australia’s biggest hedge fund company, the portion of overseas investments has dropped to about 9 percent of the more than A$16 billion managed as of Sept. 30. That’s down from over 20 percent two years ago. Platinum suffered by staying open when other funds around the world halted redemptions at the end of last year, said Liz Norman, the company’s Sydney-based investor services manager. The firm, which counted George Soros among its early investors, has two U.S. dollar funds distributed through Optima Fund Management in New York. “We like the diversification that comes with having money sourced from both Australia and abroad,” Norman said. Bennelong Funds Management , which manages more than A$870 million, said the heightened scrutiny can help established firms attract new money. “It raises barriers to entry,” Chief Executive Officer Jarrod Brown said. “You can’t just buy a couple of Bloomberg screens and a desk and set up a hedge fund, there has to be significantly more substance behind it to attract any level of sophisticated investor.” Shorting Ban Bennelong has raised money from local pension funds, high- net-worth investors and local fund of funds in the past year, he said. The nation’s industry wasn’t helped by the regulator. The Australian Securities & Investments Commission banned the short- selling of all stocks in September 2008 as part of international efforts to contain stock market declines in the aftermath of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse. Holroyd, 50, plans to bring three staff with him upon moving, and will leave the fund’s programmers and a marketing office in Sydney, he said. Commodity Strategies, which uses fully automated models, has an active long-only commodity futures fund managing about $50 million and a long-short offering with about $120 million. If current discussions with investors turn into allocations, Commodity Strategies may manage a further $200 million to $300 million “reasonably quickly,” Holroyd said, without naming investors or specifying a timeframe. “It makes it so much easier when you are in the swim of things,” he said. “We’re hoping that within the next six or nine months we’ll be moving out of Sydney and on to hopefully greener pastures.” To contact the reporter on this story: Malcolm Scott in Sydney at Mscott23@bloomberg.net

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Digeo Bankruptcy: Paul Allen Liquidates Digeo Holdings, Files Chapter 11

November 3, 2009

Mercer Island billionaire Paul Allen is asking for federal bankruptcy protection as he liquidates the remains of Digeo, a Kirkland set-top box company that was mostly sold off this fall.

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