financial

German Finance Minister: Eurozone States Must Give EU More Power

November 12, 2011

BERLIN – Euro zone states must do more at a European level and pass some of their responsibilities for budget setting and fiscal policy to European institutions to find a way out of the debt crisis, Germany’s Finance Minister was quoted on Saturday as saying. Wolfgang Schaeuble told Germany weekly news magazine Focus that Italy would be able to overcome its problems, which stemmed from a confidence crisis on the markets. “The actual economic data is not so bad. The problems just need to be tackled… These are also solvable by Italy itself. What Rome must overcome is nothing like the mountain Greece must climb,” he said in an interview published on Saturday Although Europe now had a more stringent growth and stability pact which allows the chance to intervene much earlier, countries also had to do more at European Union level, he said. “The pressure of the crisis is allowing things to happen which otherwise wouldn’t be possible… the bigger the crisis the greater the need for change.” “The sense that this will bring us much further in the end helps me through the frustrating times.” To better ensure euro zone members respect their commitments, existing European Union treaties should be modified to give European Commission officials the same kind of enforcement powers for budgetary matters that they already have in the realm of competition issues, he said in a separate interview with Le Monde. “Why wouldn’t the membership of the commission in charge of putting the agreements into effect not have the same rights as the competition authority,” he asked the French paper. “Why does the right exist for violations of European laws to appeal to the Court of Justice of the European Union but not violations of the Stability Pact?” Schaeuble also reiterated that France and Germany needed to keep pushing their proposal for a financial transactions tax even if there is reluctance on the part of some EU members. “If we don’t find a solution for the 27 EU members, it must then be discussed on the level of the euro zone,” he said. “Those who want to be leaders must move forward. That’s the case with France and Germany.” The tax proposal, formally made to the Group of 20 leading economies earlier this month by billionaire Bill Gates, failed to win the backing of the G20 although French President Nicolas Sarkozy has said he still plans to pursue the idea. (Reporting by Alexandra Hudson and Christian Plumb; editing by Patrick Graham) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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MF Global’s Bankruptcy Erodes Trust In Brokerages

November 12, 2011

NEW YORK (David Henry, David Sheppard and Matthew Goldstein) – Almost two weeks after the bankruptcy of commodities firm MF Global, customers at rival firms are all asking the same question: How safe is my money? MF Global’s collapse is confronting clients across the industry with the harsh truth that while their accounts may be termed “segregated” that does not mean they are off-limits from trouble at a commodity futures firm, much less backstopped by any government insurance fund. MF Global revealed to regulators during its October 31 bankruptcy that it was short perhaps $600 million in customer funds – money which the firm was supposed to keep in “segregated” accounts maintained under a raft of laws and regulations. The concerns among investors have reached such a pitch that futures exchange operator CME Group announced late Friday that it will provide a guarantee for $300 million of the missing money in the MF Global case. “I’ve lost a good deal of money already over this. Now I’m a big boy who should have known better, with over 25 years experience in the futures industry, but what they were doing with client funds is to me outrageous,” said Stuart McClellan, an independent trader from Norfolk in the United Kingdom, who previously worked for Schroders in London. McClellan has more than $110,000 tied up in MF Global, which he doesn’t know if he will get back. “Using the excess collateral in clients’ funds to trade is not illegal, but to my mind it’s immoral. There is a huge risk,” he said. Futures commission merchants, as brokers in the industry are known, have always been allowed, with certain restrictions, to invest customers’ so-called “excess margin,” or the funds in their accounts over and above the collateral required to maintain trades. The brokers then book any profits for themselves. Segregation simply means that customer deposits can’t be mixed with the firm’s own money or used to cover firm expenses. They must always be available for customers to trade with or withdraw at a moment’s notice. In other words, customer segregated money isn’t some big cookie jar for the firm to dip into when it is short on cash. “That is what is so shocking about MF Global’s situation,” said Michael Greenberger, a former director of the Division of Trading and Markets at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and now a law professor at the University of Maryland. “If that stability is not present, people will not want to go into what is already a highly volatile trading environment,” he said. Now with each passing day that missing money has not been found, there is growing concern that MF Global may have abused its legal latitude with the segregated customer accounts. The fear is that MF lost the segregated funds in bad trades or used them illegally to meet other obligations. By this time, traders and investigative sources say, it should have been possible to trace the money, if it still exists, in some account with another financial institution. Some traders who tried to withdraw funds from MF Global prior to the bankruptcy received checks that bounced. Commodity traders and investors are now saying they will demand their brokerage houses reveal exactly what they plan investing customer funds in. Don McAfee, a private investor from the San Juan Islands in Washington state, said he had been a “novice” trader of commodities who had become interested in the sector, in part because he saw less risk from the fate of individual banks and brokerages than in equities or bonds. “It was a way of diversifying out of just playing stocks, and I was very attracted to the fact you did not seem to have any counterparty risk,” McAfee said, who has around $220,000 still frozen at MF Global. “In the future I am going to want an ironclad guarantee that my account is fully segregated. And if it’s not I need to know that at most it’s being invested in U.S. Treasuries, not commercial paper or foreign bonds.” PRESSURE MOUNTS ON RIVALS Brokers at rival firms, who had perhaps hoped to benefit from the disappearance of one of their fiercest competitors, are fielding endless calls from concerned customers and fearing a run on their own accounts. “I’m getting calls from people, wanting to know if this could happen again, if I can give them proof that the banks I’m dealing with are okay and that their money is safe,” said one broker on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on Thursday, who asked not to be identified. “That’s never happened to me before. There’s a lot of fear,’ he said. Other traders said they were looking to spread their accounts across multiple brokers to limit their risk, after watching friends and colleagues locked out of the market over the past two weeks. Others said they were looking into insuring their funds. The failure to free up client funds quickly after the bankruptcy was further undermining faith in the safeguards in the commodities market, said Michael “Mack” Frankfurter, co-founder of commodity trading advisor Cervino Capital Management LLC in Beverly Hills. “There is unintended consequences and systemic risk evolving in this situation. It’s not about what needs to be done going forward… It’s about what needs to be done immediately to save the industry,” he said. WHO TO TRUST? MF Global’s standard agreement with customers permitted the firm to “borrow, pledge, repledge, transfer, hypothecate, rehypothecate, loan or invest any of the collateral” in customer accounts. The language is typical of agreements throughout the industry, said one longtime futures trader and industry consultant who did not want to be identified because he does work for CME Group. The largest customers might be able to get that language tweaked in their favor a bit, perhaps with an agreement to split revenue earned on the customer deposits. But smaller investors generally have to accept the firm’s plans for the use of excess cash in their accounts. Trading in commodities has exploded over the past ten years, increasing by more than 600 percent according to some estimates, and bringing in a new breed of ‘Mom and Pop’ investors hoping to protect themselves against, and benefit from, the rising costs of food and energy. The practice of firms using customer excess cash to make money has been a basic source of revenue for the industry for decades, if not centuries. In fact, it is revenue from those investments that has allowed the firms to cut their commission rates to attract more business. The practice is codified in U.S. law and regulation, which until 2000 limited use of the funds to basically U.S. Treasury and state and municipal obligations. Over the next five years, the rules were eased to permit firms to use customer money to enter into repurchase agreements and buy foreign bonds, money market funds, and assorted securities. When the financial crisis prompted second thoughts from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the industry fought to stop proposals to cut back on how much the firms could do with customer money. MF Global, which was led by ex-Goldman Sachs CEO and former New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, teamed up with Newedge Group, a major competitor, and warned in a December 2010 letter that reducing the stream of revenue could force some futures commission merchants to shut down. The Futures Industry Association, an umbrella organization representing futures traders such as Goldman Sachs Group and Jefferies & Company, as well as MF Global, also pushed back against plans to stop firms investing in foreign bonds and other riskier assets with customer funds. The proposal was eventually shelved. The MF Global collapse prompted CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler to say November 7 that he will push again to tighten the restrictions. Industry experts say that may improve the security of segregated funds, but it could also force brokers to charge higher fees. Meanwhile, the building outrage over the missing money is rattling industry veterans. Dennis Gartman, a board member of the Kansas City Board of Trade known for his daily market commentary, wrote Friday that if industry leaders do not act quickly to make good on the MF customer money, “the futures markets shall be under real and permanent assault.” Todd Thielmann, a former MF Global broker on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade, said fear was spreading fast among customers. “They’ve taken any excess money out of all firms now and they don’t know who to trust.” (Reporting by David Henry, David Sheppard and Matthew Goldstein in New York. Additional reporting by Jed Horowitz, Barani Krishnan and Josephine Mason in New York, Samuel Nelson and PJ Huffstutter in Chicago; editing by Edward Tobin and Martin Howell) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Lydia Fisher: The Debt Iceberg: What’s at Stake?

November 12, 2011

Much has been said about the role of Congress and the Federal Reserve and Wall Street in largely engineering an unprecedented financial bubble, in the trillions . Two enabled, the other executed. Then, human nature went to work. The Titanic hit an iceberg when those at the levers pushed it too far. Only in our case, it’s a debt iceberg. How big is the U.S. debt iceberg? U.S. national debt is right near 15 trillion . Add in unfunded liabilities and we’re well over 100 trillion (who can even count after that first 100 trillion… ). Worldwide government debt is north of 40 trillion. Not to mention hundreds of trillions in derivatives. Worldwide GDP is nearly 60 trillion. Is there enough growth or assets to back this up? Bailouts, stimulus, borrowing, quantitative easing (in effect, money printing) and the Federal Reserve’s buying up bank bad debt, helped form this massive debt iceberg. Debt and falsehood (and there was plenty of it in the making of the housing bubble) have no intrinsic value. Did we think we could create value with that which has none? Housing prices therefore reached artificial levels. Naturally, artificially created prices deflate to the level of affordability. Affordability is a function of the ability to service debt — that’s why jobs and wage growth are key to putting support beneath housing prices. The debt that supports the assets needs to be re-structured, too, in a way to keep people in homes that could, with a little help, afford them. But that takes time, as each case is different. It takes two, to work it out, to sit down person-to-person. The way banking and business used to be. Maybe the crisis would not have run so deep had banking not been concentrated in a handful of big banks. Part of the problem of working through this housing crisis is that we’ve gotten so big to the point of being “out-of control,” no matter how much we automate. Maybe there are limits to automation and cost-cutting. Look no further than the robo-signing fiasco and handling of the foreclosure crisis. It appears rather difficult, now, to handle millions of home cases, to even reach a human voice to talk to. Maybe there’s something to human interaction and community orientation. As a nation, we’re throwing more debt after bad debt to keep afloat the contraption we built over decades. It appears endless. A free market economy is exactly that — allowing free market dynamics to work so that prices clear the market, allowing faulty mismanaged businesses to fail before much damage is done. Bailouts continue. Matter of fact, the American people may just be bailing out the entire U.S. economy after bailing out Wall Street. Taxpayer dollars continue to fund Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (to the tune of well over 100 billion since the 2008 crisis). So we’re, in effect, paying for badly originated mortgages. Yet Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac top executives were awarded , just recently, 13 million in bonuses. Is this not perplexing, astounding, conflicting, ominous or Orwellian? For all the strategy and the discipline of implementation that goes into campaigning (with the goal of getting elected) what happened to governing? As in creating an environment that fosters growth and jobs so all may benefit. Creating jobs means recreating what a free market enterprise system is meant to be — many competing on a level playing field (rather than a system that’s in part morphed into monopolistic capitalism). And that means breaking down the barriers that now keep many from being able to start and operate a small business (and small business is the key, as it provides 65 percent of jobs). If we don’t make the necessary structural changes, change may be imposed upon us. As with Greece. Did Greece anticipate the sudden turn of events? Their bonds are worth, for now, 50 cents on the dollar. The affordability component is missing. How can Greece grow an economy, to pay off debt, under the weight of existing debt and austerity (which leads to contraction)? We come back to the notion that assets backed by falsely created debt (like liar loans) or debt based on overpromising and overspending (like Greece) in time devalue themselves. Sounds to me, that time-tested responsibility needs a revisit. History shows us that freedom without responsibility naturally leads to anarchy. Now, if one traces the development of financial instruments over the last few decades, it parallels the cultural shift from one of self-reliance and assuming responsibility to off-loading responsibility. Increasing dependence upon the government to be all things to all people (including bailouts) is simply unsustainable. Look no further than the path of the Euro zone. Let me further explain. Seems to me that financial innovation (exotic instruments, derivatives or securitization) became all about finding ways to off-load risk on to someone else. The financial world did just fine before the dawn of derivatives. A bond manager bought a bond after much homework, monitored its credit-worthiness, and sold it if there was a problem. Sounds like we’re at a crossroad. There’s a scene in Alice In Wonderland where Alice meets the Cheshire Cat at a crossroad. Alice asks, “Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?” “That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,” said the Cheshire Cat. So where’s the developed world headed? Depends on where we want to go. Do we seek truth and reality, or fiction? Note the following: “Sovereign debt has lost its apparent risk-free status,” Hervé Hannoun, deputy director general of the Bank for International Settlements, said in a recent speech in which he called for an end to “the fiction.” To restore confidence, he concluded, the world needs to move “from denial to recognition.” For all the talk about transparency (maybe the 21st century word for honesty) it’s been anything but that in the last decade. There was a looking away when some warned Congress of pending subprime lending dangers. There was a push back when some warned about derivatives.There was a looking away when a whistleblower warned of Bernie Madoff’s ponzi scheme. There was a push back when some warned that Euro zone sovereign debt may lead to the next subprime crisis. What’s disturbing is that the beat goes on . There was a push back when regulators tried to restrain MF Global’s risk-taking, concentrated bet on Euro zone sovereign debt. MF Global was not just the first casualty of the Euro zone sovereign debt crisis. It shows up naked truth, what’s still wrong with the system (after 2300 pages of Dodd-Frank) — use of high leverage, concentrated excessive risk-taking, the alleged $600 million missing customer funds, political influence. Now back to the Euro zone. Is Greece like Bear Stearns (the weakest link, first to break back in 2008), then Italy, then… maybe it’s only the beginning of all over again. In 2008, private-sector bad debts were absorbed by governments. Who will absorb government debts? Will the only outlet be expansionary monetary policy? The pain, then, will be felt by the people through extraction of wealth, be it taxation, austerity, devaluation of currencies. The much written and talked about wealth schism will only widen. Will history then remember the beginning of the 21st century as the great wealth extraction, or dream extraction, or a developed world in moral hazard? Like a multiple choice question — A, B, C or D (all of the above). As I read ongoing headlines, thoughts like this swirl in my head. Read about a young individual who did everything by the book. You know, go to college, get good grades. A fast food chain won’t even call back upon a job submission. No job, no dreams. No dreams, then what? Youth unemployment in the U.S. remains troubling. Spain’s stands at 40 percent. Within the Euro zone, some have been in a temporary employment waiting room at one place for over a decade — waiting for the promise of permanent employment to be filled. Talk to young folks here in the U.S. lucky enough to have a job, the same refrain. I feel like “I’m in a waiting room” or “I feel like I’m swooshing about laterally.” Are we moving forwards, backwards, or standing still in circular motion, with technological advances, financial engineering? In 1952, Albert Einstein prophetically wrote, “overburdening necessarily leads to superficiality.” In his poignant piece “Education For Indepenedent Thought,” he goes on to note, “It is essential that the student acquire an understanding of and a lively feeling for values. He {or she} must acquire a vivid sense of the beautiful and of the morally good.” Otherwise, (Einstein goes on to elaborate), one becomes rather robotic with specialized knowledge only . Note the “hubristic emails of the Goldman Sachs trader Fabrice Tourre:” “More and more leverage in the system,” wrote “Fab” to a girlfriend. “The entire edifice threatens to collapse at any moment. Only potential survivor, the fabulous Fab… standing in the middle of all these complex, highly levered, exotic trades he created without necessarily understanding all the implications of those monstrosities.” Then this: “Anyway,” he went on, “not feeling too guilty about this, the real purpose of my job is to make capital markets more efficient and ultimately provide the U.S. consumer with more efficient ways to leverage… himself, so there is a humble, noble and ethical reason for my job ;) amazing how good I am in convincing myself !!!” “Implications of those monstrosities?” Shattering of dreams, impoverishment of millions through debt. Freedom and democracy are at stake. Ask the Greek people. Did indebtedness take away their ability to live freely, to have choices? Frightening.

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Richard (RJ) Eskow: It’s Simple: You’re Either For the Bank Tax or You’re For the Banks

November 9, 2011

There’s talk that the president and other elected officials will try to tap the Occupy Wall Street movement’s energy to boost their campaigns. It’s good to see the rhetoric finally moving in the right direction. Even better, now there’s an easy way to prove it isn’t just election-year lip service: They can support the financial transactions tax being introduced in the Senate. That should please the self-described “deficit hawks,” since it will put an estimated $350 billion on the government’s books. But the best thing about this tax might not even be the money. The best thing about it is that it just might help prevent the next financial crisis. This tax helps the public ask its leaders a simple question: Are you for the banks, or are you for us? Fair Play The reason for the tactical about-face by politicians is clear enough. Occupy Wall Street caught on quickly and dramatically, and has already achieved the seemingly impossible by changing the public dialog from what Washington wants to discuss — deficits — to what the rest of the country wants to talk about, which is bank malfeasance and economic inequality in a rigged political and financial system. Suddenly, cuts in spending aren’t the only theme of the campaign. Case in point: Obama senior advisor David Plouffe was quoted as saying that “We intend to make (that anger) one of the central elements of the campaign next year… I’m pretty confident 12 months from now, as people make the decision about who to go vote for, the gut check is going to be about, ‘Who would make decisions more about helping my life than Wall Street?’ ” Actually, the prevailing theme of this mass movement is not anger, although that’s part of the mix. The theme is justice , rather than rage or retribution. And the desire for justice today leads to certain conclusions: Criminals should pay for their crimes. The wealthy should pay their fair share. The ones who ruined the economy should help bear the cost of fixing it. And we must make sure that this sort of reckless greed is brought under control once and for all. The financial transactions tax hits at least three of these four points. And if bankers try to evade it, we trust that the Justice Department and the SEC will finally start bringing wrongdoers to justice. An idea whose time has come The idea is simple: Every time someone buys or sells a stock, bond, or derivative, a tax of 0.03% is applied to the transaction. This is a miniscule tax in real terms. If someone gave you $100,000 in stocks or bonds as a gift, it would cost you thirty bucks. It would only cost $300 if they gave you a million dollars’ worth. You’d spend more than that on dessert when you went out to celebrate that night. As you can see, it would be overstating this tax to call it “peanuts.” It’s not even peanut dust. So why is it good, and why is important? It’s good because the “bipartisan” crowd in Washington has been pushing austerity all year, even though polls show that a bipartisan consensus of voters wants them to first work on creating jobs and stimulating the economy. If these politicians mean what they say about government deficits, they should be thrilled about the hundreds of billions it will bring in. The flip side is also true: If they aren’t thrilled about this tax, they aren’t serious about the deficits. They just hate government and want to keep taxes low for their rich patrons. Thought experiment: This tiny tax vs. Social Security benefits All year long Washington’s been telling us we can’t afford to give people the Social Security benefits they’ve paid for all their lives. They’ve been telling us the government’s so financially strapped that even Social Security, which is forbidden by law from contributing to the deficit, must be cut. Social Security’s required by law to be self-supporting, so this is mainly just a thought experiment, but do you know how many people’s Social Security benefits this tax would pay for if it were enacted? More than two million. [1] Politicians who are eager to cut benefits for disabled people and seniors should use that “more than two million” figure to put a human scale on what this discussion. We’ve called it a thought experiment, but it could be reasonable to use this tax to shore up Social Security. That program’s long term imbalance exists because the very highest earners have captured much more of our wealth than was expected, so the payroll tax barely touches their income.[2] That would help redress the balance. Otherwise, just consider it form of measurement. We could have used firefighters’ salaries, hot meals for kids, or all sorts of other measures. But you get the point: It’s a lot of money. Cascading Failure The other great benefit of this tax is that it slows down the kind of wild speculation, much of it driven electronically, that turned the stock market into an ultra-high-speed computer game. In last year’s ” Flash Crash ,”he stock market lost nearly ten percent of its value in a few minutes as electronic trading algorithms drove ever-increasing numbers of trades at high speed. It was a lot like the phemonenon engineers call “cascading failure,” where one events creates several others, which each in turn create several others, creating a chain reaction that soon spins out of control completely. Cascading failures can cause power blackouts — and nuclear meltdowns. Remember “we almost lost Detroit”? With the “flash crash,” we almost lost the economy – again. Electronic traders make their money from billions of high-speed trades, most of which are conducted without human intervention. These aren’t reasoned judgments about the worth of a stock or the state of the world economy. They’re mob panics, conducted at high speed, where software programs try to figure out who’s buying and selling and getting ahead of the wave — without ever knowing what it means in real-world terms. These trades don’t contribute anything of value to society. They don’t create jobs or growth, and they don’t create wealth – except for the traders, who are draining money out of the productive economy with every mindless, robotic mass trade. It’s gambling, pure and simple, and the financial transactions tax will slow this electronic fun fair down once and for all. It will apply a touch of the brakes to the Wall Street Crazy Train. That might, just might, help prevent the next financial disaster. And it will bring much-needed money into the Treasury. The Litmus Test So it’s simple: Either our elected officials support this tax or they support Wall Street. And by “support,” we don’t mean the “say the public option’s a good thing then let it die” kind of support. We mean the “get on the horn every day to the Hill and push it” kind of support. We mean the kind of aggressive support that forces a floor vote, at least in the Senate, so voters can see who’s voting for it and who’s voting against it. It’s impressive — and sometimes surprising — to see how many Republicans, as well as Democrats, will do the right thing, if they’re forced to do it in the daylight. The tax isn’t perfect. Frankly, it’s a little small. (The European version is three times bigger, except for derivatives.) But at least its modest size should help reassure the moderates and centrists. The bottom line is, it’s an idea whose time has come. Sen. Tom Harkin and Rep. Peter DeFazio are to be commended for introducing it. This bill makes a perfect litmus test. Supporting it means supporting the 99%. It would be a good idea if we all called our leaders in the House, Senate, and White House and asked them if they’ll be working for the financial transactions tax. Because if they are, they’re working for us and not the banks. So why not give ‘em call and tell ‘em you’ll be watching? __________________ [1] I did a little quick-and-dirty spreadsheeting: I took the current average benefit, applied a uniform cost of living increase (one which was probably too generous), found the total ten-year cost per recipient, and then divided $350 billion by the result. Back of the envelope, as they say, but good for some perspective. [2] See the work of economist L. Josh Bivens.

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Daniel Dicker: MF Global Proves We Are All Still at the Mercy of Bankers

November 7, 2011

The weekend saw a near catastrophe similar to the Lehman failure in 2008, although it had nothing to do with Europe and few noticed it. The explosion of MF Global continues to cause ripple effects of the type we’ve seen before, and not in a good way, three years ago. Let me bring you up to date on this largely unreported, but still quite potent and ticking time bomb. A bit of history will help: MF Global spent most of its life as a simple commodity brokerage house, executing commercial and private trader orders in the many futures pits around the globe. In the previous two decades, it was one of the biggest of the commodity houses outside of the investment banks. Their devotion to the execution of client orders, however, as opposed to using their access to develop prop-trading funds and managed futures funds, ultimately doomed them. As markets moved to electronic platforms and high frequency and algorithmic trading models began dominating trade, their client-centric business model became anachronistic. Since 2008, shares of MF Global had been slowly but significantly dropping — the firm was dying a slow death. Enter Jon Corzine . When he first joined MF Global in 2010, I was surprised. What did this ex-Goldman CEO and New Jersey Governor want with this dying commodities firm? In retrospect, we see: Corzine, the ultimate egotist, was going to rehabilitate his reputation by saving MF — and therefore the “Hail Mary” pass of deeply leveraged bets in Italian sovereign debt. Thus leading us back to recent news on MF Global. We couldn’t want for a more complete soap opera of financial ruin: We’ve got rogue trades, missing money, huge 40-to-1 leverage, a missing CEO who’s under investigation by the FBI and has retained top-drawer legal representation, and 50,000 accounts slowly being relocated to new homes with positions intact, but with only a fraction of the margin money they supposedly originally held. Is any of this sounding vaguely familiar? It should — from Lehman to AIG; these are very familiar lines to a now old play. Further, until Saturday, it looked possible that the MF Global snowball could even touch off a liquidity and credit crisis in the same nature as Lehman. Late Friday, the CME released a small notice to customers and clearinghouses on margins. On a first read of this notice, it seemed as if CME was hiking margins close to 30 percent on all of its products across-the-board for all of its customers. Everyone freaked out. CME, charged with overseeing MF Global prior to their blow-up and now responsible for transferring those client accounts, seemed to be hitting the panic button. Were they groping for safety from further rogue trades from MF inside their own system that no one was so far aware? Were the clearinghouses collectively going to be hit with a multi-billion dollar burden? No matter what was going on behind the scenes, inside the trade statements being pored over by the Federal trustees, everyone was being asked to come up with several more billions of margin money come Monday morning. Most traders don’t have money for extra margins — we all trade close to our limits, almost all of the time. A 30 percent increase in margin costs was going to translate into massive liquidations in all the major commodity markets; Oil, gold, copper, wheat, corn, soybeans. There’d be a scramble for liquidity and for credit — also a replay of 2008. Would this one default in one commodity firm be enough of a tipping point to generate a true credit squeeze that might even ripple through equities, through the bond market? We’d have to wait for Monday to find out. But on Saturday afternoon , the CME “clarified” their previous notice: They were looking to lower the margin requirements of transferred MF accounts, not bring everybody else’s UP. The fear among insiders of the commodity markets before this collective sigh of relief heard on Saturday was palpable — while futures and OTC commodity trade isn’t anywhere the size the mortgage markets were in 2008, it got people thinking. And it got me thinking. Nothing has changed. The leverage is still too high. The interconnectedness of markets is still too great. The lack of regulation continues and the chance of rogue trades taking down financially inflated markets and causing systemic risk is still out there. We still rely upon banks and the “shadow” banks of leveraged funds to accurately report their positions to us, instead of having them under constant scrutiny by the Fed or other capable regulators. What have we learned since 2008? Apparently nothing.

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Occupy Wall Street Protesters Clash With Police Outside Courthouse

November 6, 2011

NEW YORK — Hundreds of Occupy Wall Street protesters clashed with police in front of the New York Supreme Court building Saturday afternoon, after they and thousands others marched across to Foley Square from Zuccotti Park. At first, police officers stationed along the route largely stood by and watched as protesters marched up Broadway, playing tambourines, drums and harmonicas and chanting slogans like “How do you fix the deficit? Stop the wars, tax the rich!” As the protest swelled near Foley Square, New York Police Department motorcycles and cars began blocking off intersections. Stranded drivers honked — angrily, as they impotently inched forward towards the protesters, or in support, cheering and sticking thumbs ups and peace signs out the windows of their vehicles. The protesters were met on the steps of the courthouse by a line of officers, and more soon arrived, armed with plastic ties and rolled up orange barricades. Before moving in, a group of officers coordinated. One, holding a rolled piece of paper, told the group, “We’re saying it’s blocking a pedestrian walkway.” “Let’s go,” another officer shouted at his colleagues waiting with zip ties and barricades. “Get up there!” “Let’s stand fast there, huh?” a female officer encouraged, as other officers began saying through megaphones: “Right now, it’s illegal to be on the sidewalk, it’s a hazard.” Protesters began questioning the NYPD’s actions, citing their right to peacefully assemble. They paced the sidewalk in an effort to defend against the argument that the crowd was an obstruction. Several got in the faces of officers forming a human barricade on the courthouse steps. “You’re supposed to be our nation’s finest,” they shouted. “You’re the ones blocking the sidewalk!” Physical altercations began, with several officers roughly shoving protesters and protesters refusing to move, shouting in the faces of officers narrowing the sidewalk space behind the orange net barriers. “We don’t want nobody to get hurt!” an officer shouted on the megaphone. Officers provided several different reasons for the courthouse crackdown. “It’s our jobs, it’s taxpayer money,” a plainclothes man standing with the officers on the steps shouted at protesters. “It’s the rules.” An Officer Vance described the space as a “frozen zone” and said the officers’ actions were “securing the area.” “You can see I’m having a bad day here,” Vance said, asking HuffPost to keep moving. “They asked me to clear it and I cleared it out,” said Officer Birmingham beside him, confirming that the NYPD had “deemed it unsafe.” According to witnesses, one woman was caught between advancing cops and protesters and dragged across the barricade. She was taken up the courthouse steps and cuffed with zip ties against a courthouse column. Desiree Frias, 18, cried as two cops brought her down the steps toward squad cars. “I just want to go back to college,” she said, gasping. She tried to spell her name between sobs, asking for someone to tell her fiance what had happened as the arresting officers urged her to calm down. Activist and former New Jersey city councilman Jim Keady, 40, tried to advise Frias of her rights before officers took her. “It’s going to be okay,” he said. “You might not make it back to class on Monday, but this is going to be one of the most important lessons you’ll ever learn, in exercising your rights.” One officer said she was to be taken to One Police Plaza and likely processed back at the courthouse. “They just handed her to me, I have no choice,” said the female officer on her right. The number of officers present swelled to about one hundred but only an estimated half-dozen protesters were arrested, according to witnesses. Officers declined to comment or stated they didn’t know the number arrested. Despite physical altercations and heated exchanges, there are no known injuries at this time. Pepper spray did not appear to be used to push back the crowd. The standoff between protesters and police lasted several hours before protesters dispersed, many headed back to Zuccotti Park. After they had cleared out, several dozen officers remained stationed on the courthouse steps. Later on Saturday night, several hundred protesters marched to One Police Plaza, where the arrested protesters were due for arraignment, in a show of solidarity. The march organizers interrupted a meeting of the General Assembly in Zuccotti Park to recruit support. Several dozen police officers responded by accompanying the protesters from Zuccotti Park on foot and by vehicle. Motorcycles formed a barrier in front of the courthouse steps. The protesters stopped in front of the courthouse on the corner of Hogan and Centre streets, where officers also blocked the steps. “They say this shit can’t happen,” said a speaker on the steps via the “people’s mic,” while officers looked on. Rumors have swirled in recent days that officers will attempt a clean-up or clear-out of the park this weekend, but those rumors are as of yet unconfirmed. An officer standing near City Hall Saturday afternoon additional authorities had been mobilized for the night to perform duties beyond a nightly counterterrorism check of the city’s most iconic sites. Nearly 30 additional cars were out beyond the usual 100. “We’re on standby in case anything goes on downtown,” the officer said, clarifying, “at Zuccotti.” UPDATE: 9:45 p.m. — Desiree Frias is being charged with assaulting an officer, a felony, and obstructing government administration and resisting arrest, both misdemeanors, according to the clerk’s office at One Police Plaza. According to witnesses, Frias was caught between officers trying to clear the area in Foley Square and protesters trying to hold their ground. It remains unclear what type of assault was allegedly committed by Frias, who was wearing a purple knitted cap and long blue skirt at the time of her arrest. Court clerk Joe Simon said he could not provide information about the other protesters who were arrested, and he said he believed Frias would not come before a judge Saturday night. He expected the protesters would be arraigned no sooner than 1:00 p.m. Sunday, which is when the courthouse is scheduled to open. It typically takes at least 24 hours to process the paperwork, Simon said, but he noted that at least 350 people were awaiting processing at the 5th precinct where Frias was being held. Frias’s fiance Hector Asavedo said he had not been able to reach her and had not been given any information, though the clerk said she would have access to a phone at the precinct and could consult legal aid once her paperwork was processed. The lawyer would then stand with her before the judge “once she’s physically brought up.” Moira Meltzer of the New York office of the National Lawyers Guild contacted this reporter in search of information about Frias’ charges. Meltzer said her office had so far had difficulty obtaining information from the authorities. The Lawyer’s Guild Is representing all the protesters arrested at the demonstration in front of the court building and associated protests Saturday. Meltzer said she has 21 names, but doesn’t know if that list includes all who were arrested.

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Kevin L. Petrasic: Emergence of the New Banking Economy M&A, Regulatory and Market Forces Dramatically Reshaping Industry

November 4, 2011

The U.S. banking industry is entering a particularly volatile period in our nation’s economic history that is rapidly reshaping the industry, the demographics of financial services providers, and the way that financial products and services are delivered and consumed. Most obvious is a wave of mergers, acquisitions and continual attrition of small- and medium-sized banks. Consolidation at this level may leave many communities without some of the familiar faces and places where local residents have conducted their banking business, in some cases for generations. There are several factors driving this consolidation, including regulatory reforms that most assume are targeted at larger banks but are having a considerable impact on smaller regional and community banks. These reforms, coupled with compressed margins due to current interest rates and general economic conditions, are having a significant adverse impact on all banks, but disproportionately so on smaller banks. With regulatory and compliance costs increasing exponentially for banks of all sizes, the banks least able to withstand the aggregate burden will be the smallest banks, many of which will either be acquired by stronger and larger competitors or become wards of the FDIC. At the same time, a rapidly evolving technological and regulatory landscape is opening a host of new and innovative delivery channels for bank and bank-like products and services that is changing the broader banking landscape. The emergence of unique payment systems and products, including virtual currencies, technological adaptations and innovations enabling nonbanks to offer the equivalent of bank products and services, and globalization of the world banking economy is fundamentally altering how we engage in commerce even at the most basic consumer level. A startling example of just how far and fast we have come is evident in the boom in mobile banking in Africa. In just a few short years, technology has produced what decades of well-intentioned social policies failed to deliver. A number of the poorest nations in the world are thriving in a mobile banking economy that barely exists in the U.S. While there are more complicated reasons for this than the availability of technology, in this case technology is the equalizer that has produced a safer banking environment and dramatically improved commerce within Africa. Technology, regulatory adaptations to technological developments, and the way we and our children think about the delivery and consumption of financial products and services is changing almost every aspect of how we conduct commerce. It is not hard to envision a very different world even five years from now. Another shifting force involves changes to the so-called “dual banking system,” which maintains a healthy tension between federally chartered national banks (and federal thrifts) and state-chartered banks. Historically, larger institutions have operated through a national charter (8 of the 10 largest banking organizations are national banks); however, there is building momentum toward the state charter. The reasons for this relate to a significantly less expensive assessment structure for state versus national banks, the perception of weakened federal preemption powers for national banks (relating to increased exposure of national banks to state laws) under the Dodd-Frank Act, a generally more hospitable and accessible state regulatory environment, and, interestingly, the emergence of the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, or CFPB. While the CFPB is not an obvious factor influencing bank charter migration, the potential focus of the CFPB on larger national banks and a close partnership between the CFPB and state regulators could mean that national banks may get greater scrutiny from the CFPB than their state chartered brethren. This could encourage some institutions to flip charters into a “safer haven” of state oversight and supervision. The implications of charter migration are difficult to predict. While most folks generally do not pay a lot of attention to whether their bank is federally- or state-chartered, increasing interest in the state charter may have consequences over the longer term that should not be ignored. These include the possibility of structural changes that could strengthen the state charter and, indirectly, propel further consolidation. At the same time, many other players in the financial services space will continue to emerge and adapt to the new regulatory environment. Credit unions and nonbank lenders will be able to take advantage of opportunities created by voids left by bank mergers, and nontraditional lenders such as payday lenders could emerge as more mainstream players with the benefit of federal oversight and regulation from the CFPB. In addition, some of the largest nonbank firms will almost certainly explore opportunities to improve their customer contact by developing commerce and payment solutions that improve the overall customer experience. The Internet is full of variations on this theme. The Internet also offers intriguing insight into a new wave of banking via the delivery and marketing of financial products and services through social media. Even the most conservative banking organizations are closely studying how to increase their exposure via a wide range of social media currently available and aggressively deployed by many bank competitors. And the phenomenon appears that it is here to stay. Social media is now a forum for handling customer service issues, marketing, brand-building and, most interesting, community building. Some of the most prominent forums operate identical to chat rooms in which sports, headlines and financial news and developments are discussed and even encouraged by bank facilitators. The effect has been well received and, for the most part, produced a favorable customer experience. These are but a few of the factors and influences that are shaping the emergence of the new banking economy. Over the next several years, three dimensional competitive, technological, regulatory and global forces will influence and, in many cases, change who and where we get our financial products and services from, how we get and consume these products and services, how we interact with bank and nonbank financial services providers and, ultimately, the way in which we conduct commerce. This will all happen in most of our lifetimes.

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John Fullerton: Light for the Dark Age of Banking

November 4, 2011

The Dark Age of Banking reaches its twelfth anniversary today, November 4. It would be simplistic and unfair to blame the near collapse of the global financial system on the Financial Modernization Act, signed into law on November 4, 1999, repealing Glass-Steagall. But history will no doubt judge it as the beginning of the dark, modern banking era. My perspective, from nearly twenty years inside Morgan Guaranty Trust Company (the predecessor bank to JPMorgan) through the time I left after the merger with Chase in 2001, suggests a different narrative. It is a narrative marked by the advance and then abuse of technology, the competitive forces unleashed by this technological change and globalization, and a collective loss of our moral and systemic understanding of the public purpose of markets and of finance itself. The core purpose of finance is to serve the real economy through the conversion of savings into productive investment. Speculation overwhelms such productive investment today, with profound costs to our shared prosperity. If managed for the public good, markets are effective tools of capitalist economies, mediating resource allocation efficiently. Yet in modern capital markets, with advances in technology and the related explosive growth of secondary trading, markets have become businesses with their own private interests, rather than public utilities serving the public interest. The tail of speculative secondary markets, which are aligned with the interests of private exchanges and Wall Street intermediaries, are wagging the real economy dog. We cannot roll back technology, nor should we try. But we can learn to manage its impact on the financial system wisely. In addition to much needed regulatory boundaries across the system, policy makers should introduce feedback loops that shift the balance away from short term speculation toward longer term investment in the real economy, while enhancing market resiliency in the process. This was the central recommendation from the 2009 Aspen Institute gathering of prominent businesspeople including Warren Buffett, Felix Rohatyn, John Whitehead, and Pete Peterson who all signed onto a document that decried “high rates of portfolio turnover” by fund managers with little concern for long-term corporate performance or externalities. Preeminent economists including John Maynard Keynes, James Tobin, and even Larry Summers (in a 1989 paper) have all called for a financial transactions tax to “throw some sand into the gears” of our overly efficient financial markets, to use Professor Tobin’s memorable phrase. A well-structured and uniform financial transactions tax (FTT) as proposed by the European Commission accomplishes three goals. It will discourage short term speculative trading at the margin while encouraging longer holding periods, which makes the tax immaterial to investors. It will enhance trust and much needed market resiliency by reducing the dominant activity of certain leveraged speculators whose market making liquidity can be temporary and whose trend following trades contribute to near term volatility. Finally, a FTT will generate much needed revenues, perhaps $50 billion or more per year in the United States, to reduce our structural deficits. Detractors who argue that a FTT will harm liquidity and therefore market efficiency confuse market efficiency with efficiency of the real economy. By shifting financial, technological, and human capital away from short-term speculation, and by enhancing market resiliency, the efficiency of the real economy will be enhanced, and therefore better able to deliver the job growth we need. These same detractors have recently tried to argue that an FTT will harm economic growth through raising the cost of capital. Such arguments do not hold up to scrutiny; the tax does not affect real capital raising activities. Were such an argument valid, the dramatic decline in transaction costs over the past decade would have created tremendous economic growth. But that’s absurd. Arguments that traders will simply avoid the tax seem silly in the face of the well functioning FTTs in the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Singapore and Hong Kong. Let me be clear. A FTT will not provide justice for the violence perpetrated on the citizenry and the real economy by the irresponsible and at times fraudulent financial industry behavior, nor will it address the unchecked power of the too-big-to-fail banks that have corrupted much needed financial reform. Rather, a FTT is a laser-sharp policy intervention that will combat (not fix) one of the most corrosive realities that is undermining capitalism itself: short-term speculation has displaced productive investment, transforming our economy into a bankrupt financial system that lacks morals and purpose. This week, despite the abomination that is Dodd-Frank, and in the face of the continued failure of the justice system to adequately address systemic mortgage fraud, glimmers of light are appearing on the horizon to pull us out of the Dark Ages of Banking. A FTT is on the November G-20 Agenda. Senator Harkin and Representative DeFazio have reintroduced a Bill calling for a uniform FTT in the United States. Bill Gates has offered testimony to the G-20 in support of a Financial Transactions Tax as a source of revenue for foreign aid. Americans for Financial Reform have gathered hundreds of thousands of signatures showing strong public support for such a Bill. I stand with them.

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Obama’s Efforts To Aid Homeowners Fall Shorts

October 24, 2011

It was a critical plan to jump-start the economy. President Obama pledged at the beginning of his term to boost the nation’s crippled housing market and help as many as 9 million homeowners avoid losing their homes to foreclosure. Nearly three years later, it hasn’t worked out.

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Al Checchi: We Have Met the Enemy and He Is Us

October 24, 2011

We hear a lot these days about those evil corporations and their pernicious effect on America. Should we hunt down these malefactors of malice? Perhaps, but on examination, they would be us. Off with our heads? Every one of us who is not employed by the government but engages in some commercial endeavor, be it giving manicures or building bridges, conducts these activities either as a sole proprietorship, partnership, or corporation. The differences: unlike proprietorships and partnerships, corporations are taxed twice, once at the corporate level and again at the individual stockholder level, but their owners (shareholders) are insulated from personal liability. For example if I own a restaurant as an individual proprietor, I can be sued personally by an accident victim. A corporation like McDonald’s may be sued for the same accident but its individual shareholders cannot. Without the protections of limited liability, very few individuals would be willing to invest in any enterprise and subject themselves to defending against potentially unlimited liability. Our very first corporate charters were granted by the states to induce private individuals to join together to build large infrastructure projects like bridges and turnpikes. What do American corporations do today? They do the same thing that any proprietor does, e.g. make and deliver goods and services. They succeed or fail based on the difference in the value that consumers put on their products and the cost of producing them – that ugly thing called “profits”. The formula for running a successful business is quite simple: combine human and material resources as efficiently as possible to create the greatest amount of value for the consumer. Most corporations like Apple, Microsoft, Federal Express, Marriott, and Proctor and Gamble obey the rules and strive and succeed at developing and producing popular products and services that create value (what some call corporate greed). Others like Enron and WorldCom break the rules. Corporations are only as good or bad as the people who run them. Just as most people are honest and do not break the law, most people through their actions as (proprietors, partners, and corporate employees) are honest and conduct themselves within its bounds. Some obviously don’t and they should be removed and punished. Most behave ethically; too many don’t. That is human nature. And as in any endeavor, half the people running business enterprises are below average. Only a minority are exceptional. Corporations are our principal providers of employment but that is decidedly not their objective. Their objective is to maximize profits (more corporate greed). They seek ways to make investments and increase value (provide more goods and services at a profit). To do this generally requires that they employ more people. Employment is the byproduct of investment. Governments have a role in this process too. While they don’t create employment directly, they are a major influence on the ability and willingness to make investments that increase employment. Case in point: As recently reported in the Wall Street Journal, California based CKE which operates 3000 restaurants nationwide is no longer opening restaurants in California but is opening 300 in Texas. One of the reasons: In California the regulatory process can take two years versus only 6 weeks in Texas and as a result, the cost of opening a restaurant in California is $200,000 greater. Similarly, America will import approximately $350 billion of oil this year. While we have many proponents of “green energy”, until we develop viable alternatives to fossil fuel, we must continue to consume oil. We have ample untapped oil reserves of our own to replace all imports. If not restricted by government, we would invest in extracting them. This would create jobs in the oil industry. The $350 billion increase in domestic income and spending would produce more jobs. And the increase in supply and resulting decrease in the cost of oil would allow consumers to spend their savings on other things and increase jobs even more. The lesson, if you want to create jobs, shape public policy to attract private investment. America and indeed the world have no shortage of individuals or enterprises that want to make a buck. Off with their heads?

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Michael G. Winston: On Wall Street Protestors

October 22, 2011

It is almost surreal. Concerns over Wall Street practices and economic inequality that have led to sit-ins and rallies in New York and elsewhere reverberated up to the White House last Thursday, with President Obama saying the protesters are expressing the frustrations of the American public. The president said he understood the public’s concerns about how the nation’s financial system works and said Americans see Wall Street as an example of the financial industry “not always following the rules.” True enough. However, only days earlier, these same Americans, who have been long-suffering victims, were the target of his criticism. President Obama recently told an Orlando television reporter that our country has “grown soft.” He also acknowledged that some “folks” have not been playing by “the rules.” Mr. President, the country has not “grown soft” and the issue is less about playing “by the rules” than it is about enforcing the law for those who do not. When people do not obey the law, whether rich or poor, it is expected that they will be held accountable. Securities fraud is a crime; insider trading is a crime; market manipulation is a crime. So, too, are perjury, obstruction of justice and witness tampering. It appears to many that what has “gone soft” is our Justice system. People are frustrated that the government appears to have more time, resources and interest in prosecuting professional athletes for alleged steroid use than white collar criminals causing cataclysmic financial setbacks to tens of millions of people. Not a single architect the financial crisis that has brought the U.S. to its knees has yet been charged. Americans wonder why not. Americans feel a sense of deep frustration and helplessness in the face of the mounting oppressive problems that the gasping economy and rudderless leadership in Congress have engendered. This growing public outcry shouldn’t be surprising at all. This is not new; it has been building for years. It has been exacerbated by a perceived inconsistent strategy, weak leadership and failed policies. Use the word “recovery” all you want; but Americans feel we have been in a recession for over three years. A year ago, former Medtronic CEO and current Harvard Professor, Bill George stated … The highly visible corporate leadership failures of recent years have deeply shaken public confidence in business leaders. All too often these leaders have placed self-interest ahead of the well-being of their organizations. After the companies got in trouble, their leaders then refused to take responsibility for the harm caused to the people they served. The problems at British Petroleum, Hewlett-Packard, and failed Wall Street firms, along with the actions of dozens of leaders who failed in the post-Enron era, are glaring examples of these lapses in leadership. Consequently, there has been a widespread and dramatic loss of trust in business and political leaders in the past decade. People are angry and suspicious. Can you blame them? This is almost all-pervasive. The Harvard Center for Public Leadership 2009 National Leadership Index revealed that 69 percent of those surveyed believe there is a leadership crisis in the U.S., with politicians, media, finance, and business leaders getting the lowest ratings. The same is true in Europe. This is even more the case in 2011. Very discouraging. What can we do to repair the visibly eroding standards of leadership? We must turn up the heat on our leaders. We must further turn the heat up on elected officials to uphold the law. Also, let’s hold ourselves to the highest exemplary standards. Not out of fear of legal consequences. And despite the most prominent examples to the contrary. First, we can strive to be role models of leadership that exude the following leadership qualities… • The vision to spell out clearly what we will do for those who depend upon us. • The drive to share that vision broadly with those who have the biggest stake in our success. • The courage to challenge the status quo, stimulate the change, and to make decisions that move us forward in even the most difficult times. • The ability to inspire people to action, individually and in teams, to achieve our goals. • The foresight to empower people to learn new skills and stretch their capabilities to higher levels of achievement. • The wisdom to listen, learn, and translate that knowledge into higher performance. • The willingness to recognize accomplishments and celebrate successes. • The integrity to serve as a good example through actions that consistently reinforce our basic values. Implementing a new strategy requires a leader who can drive an organization, energize its operations, and inspire its people. This kind of leader must personify the organization’s purpose, through values, thinking, and character – all necessary to inspire and energize commitment to the strategy and goals of the leader and to secure the allegiances required to make any bold purpose succeed. Clearly, an essential element of leadership is trust. High performance leaders and organizations believe that words and deeds should match and have the guts and intestinal fortitude to keep their promises through thick and thin, in good times and bad. It is in translating the commitment to consistent, purposeful action, often under fire (business downturn, budget crisis, etc.) that the true test of leadership is passed or failed. Without the requisite character and integrity, the organization is “built to fail” not “built to last.” According to the infamous Edward R. Murrow: To be persuasive, we must be believable; To be believable, we must be credible; To be credible, we must be truthful. Second, we can uphold the law and prosecute lawbreakers, including “white collar criminals”, no matter how highly placed or cozy with government officials. As highlighted in the 2011 Oscar award winning Documentary “Inside Job,” hundreds of billions of dollars have been lost by investors while millions of borrowers have lost their homes. Yet, none of the people who ran the institutions that contributed to the disaster have been found liable. If these people are not to be indicted for criminal fraud, then the Wall Street/ financial services leadership that recklessly crashed the economy must be breathing easier and celebrating their ill-gotten record gains. The world was brought to the brink by the American banking/mortgage system and thus far, no one has been held accountable. Why not? On my way to getting my Ph.D. in psychology, one of the most important principles I learned was the notion that what gets rewarded gets repeated. That which gets punished gets extinguished. If malfeasance and downright corruption are not punished, they will return and again shake our very foundations. We will never be able to get this behind us if we do not get full and complete investigations with accountability and punishment for the guilty parties. The banks and financial services companies that tanked the world economy got off with carefully orchestrated settlements. The companies paid small fines without even being required to admit wrongdoing. To add insult to injury, the people who actually committed the crimes almost never pay the fines themselves; banks caught defrauding their shareholders often use shareholder money to foot the tab of justice. This stands in striking contrast to the failure of many savings and loan institutions in the late 1980s. In the wake of that debacle, special government task forces referred 1,100 cases to prosecutors, resulting in more than 800 bank officials going to jail. Among the best-known: Charles H. Keating Jr. of Lincoln Savings and Loan in Arizona. So, 800 bank officials went to jail then, and zero have been incarcerated now, for malfeasance that is much larger, more damaging and more resistant to recovery. Many are explaining this by noting that a large sum of the President’s campaign contributions come from Wall Street. They wonder if Wall Street owns the Federal Government. Our elected and appointed officials must do their jobs, satisfy their commitment to transparency, responsibility and accountability. We must “keep the heat on.” In this way, justice may eventually be done. So many leaders have failed themselves, their families, their shareholders, and their neighbors on the most important of leadership behaviors…honesty, integrity and ethical decision-making. It is a national disgrace. We have lost our standing on the world stage. Let’s try to rid the world of companies that abuse shareholders, customers, employees and society. It is time for the “good guys” to win and the “bad guys” to lose. Americans will be just fine when they see that the system works.

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Americans Grossly Underestimate Their Own Credit Card Debt

October 21, 2011

Americans grew wary of credit-card debt during the recession, a time when no one was eager to try to live beyond their means. But in the past two years, consumers have started to take some of that debt back on — and in a potentially worrying sign, many of them don’t seem to know exactly how much they have . A recent study from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York suggests that the consumers who hold credit cards and the lenders who issue them often have very different ideas about how much the cardholders owe . The average household believes they hold about $4,700 of credit card debt or 66 percent of the $7,134 lenders — the ones in a position to enforce — say households carry. The study’s authors note that they tried to account for the gap in various ways, but it remained sizable no matter how much they tweaked their research methods. They speculate that the discrepancy between borrowers’ perceptions and lenders’ data might be a result of “uninformedness” on the part of the borrowers — possibly because credit card charges and balances can be difficult to keep track of, or just because some people choose not to. The news suggests many Americans still have some progress to make in the area of financial literacy, a subject that rose to national prominence in the wake of the Great Recession. A measure in the Dodd-Frank financial reform act established an Office of Financial Education, and more public schools have begun adding a financial component to their curricula , according to USA Today . Still, the New York Fed’s report indicates that many consumers may still only have an incomplete understanding of their day-to-day financial activity. The findings are also disquieting in light of another recent study, which found that credit card debt has skyrocketed since 2009 . Consumers are borrowing more, and in a weak economy, with millions out of work and wages essentially flat, that may not necessarily be a good thing. Three years ago, out-of-control consumer debt played a major role in the escalation of the financial crisis into a full-on recession. High interest rates and easy access to loans left millions of Americans scrambling to pay off precipitously large debts when the economy took a downturn. In 2009, credit card default rates climbed to a 20-year high as unemployment rates soared. Today, more Americans are out of work, but credit card default rates are showing a steady decline . This may reflect tighter lending standards — credit is harder to get these days , with banks and other issuers taking greater pains to limit their cards to responsible borrowers — but it may also mean that most of the people at risk of defaulting have already done so , as The Fiscal Times notes.

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Lydia Fisher: Financial Occupation

October 21, 2011

“Financial occupation” is what a Greek journalist said Greece was under. I suppose the journalist means, held hostage by world bankers. Wonder how many Americans feel the same, burdened by debt — be it underwater mortgages, student loans, or credit card debt, not to mention public debt. Greece, among other dire prospects, faces liquidation of national assets? Think about that — what’s left? Within an interconnected global financial system, a poke in any one part may bring the rest of the financial spider web down. What to do when a country is way overextended relative to its growth prospects? A Greek default would ripple through Eurozone banks to the U.S. banking system. No doubt, Greece mismanaged its affairs. Politicians overpromised, overspent. For a small country, the debt’s a staggering near half trillion , with no visible growth engine in sight to service the debt. No means to borrow in capital markets. Imagine one year Greek bonds way north of 100 percent! Greece, it’s people, are at the mercy of the world’s bankers, leaders — relying on loan “handouts,” just to pay its bills, if at all. It’s people are imprisoned in chains of debt. Some innocent and some not so innocent, now feel the brunt, as austerity pushes through the front doorstep. I came across this from a friend as it relates to the economic crisis — “culpability of few, responsibility of all.” All the more, the responsibility for vigilance in the face of the seemingly invisible that sooner or later manifests itself. We live in a world of financial warriors. They can take anyone hostage — through loans, through financial speculative attack like short selling raids, through credit default swapping. The empire building “Too Big to Fails,” even come to the rescue. With provisions and creative solutions — as in the case of Greece, to find transactional ways to defer debt into the future. Creativity or “kicking the can?” No wonder, headlines pulsate with financial misdeeds against humanity. The silver lining in the ongoing crisis is that it challenges the world — about the world being owned by few. Maybe we’ll get it all out there for a healthy dialogue and movement for economic justice, for work democracy for all people, for peace and harmony. What’s the real problem here at home? It’s obviously not political democracy. Is it the free market enterprise economic system? Or, is it those at the levers? It’s people who distort systems — when they lose their sense of ethics and morality. Two economic systems can start from two different premises (for example state-ownership or private ownership) and end up in the same place through human distortion of their theoretical principles. Take the former Soviet Union. The centrally planned, state-owned economy crumbled, under the weight of big government. As we look into the future, what’s the trade here? What kind of economic system have we morphed into when byzantine banks are bailed out, propped up, now partially owned by us? Are we growing a byzantine government bureaucracy that may crowd out private enterprise? What then of progress and freedom, our ability to shape our destiny? Well-being and self-esteem come with self-reliance, a sense of ownership and participation. It’s naturally human to be motivated when we have independence, fulfillment and a sense that we are advancing, have an opportunity to make not only a living wage, but a little more to treat ourselves and our families. It makes for a healthier, happier, society all in all. There are think tanks, consulting firms, eager Americans, already working, ready and able to help, to construct an economy that aspires to benefit all. It takes leadership and will. Concentration of wealth and power is a symptom of crony capitalism. Did we play by the rules of capitalism? There’s accountability already embedded in our economic system. Manage well, you succeed. Manage poorly, you fail. What happened to the notion of a level playing field allowing many to compete? What did we do? The proper role of government in a free-enterprise system is to police market participants at arm’s length, not join their ranks and choose winners and losers. That’s a line we crossed a long time ago… Think Bear Stearns, AIG, Lehman, Countrywide, to name a few, all the way back to the Fed-orchestrated bank bailout of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998. Without Washington enablers dismantling the boundaries and paving the road, the bankers would have been bridled, hemmed in (if they couldn’t regulate themselves in the first place). After all, the dismantling of Glass-Steagall unleashed the building of the “Too Big To Fails.” Will history look upon them as dinosaurs? Bigness, of course, brings wealth and power, and with power, more wealth for more power. No surprise, then, the income inequality and the rise of what some call a “plutocracy.” A former World War II French Resistance fighter, Stephane Hessel, has written a book titled Time For Outrage . Millions of copies sold worldwide. Hessel has this to say: “If you want to be a real human being — a real woman, a real man — you cannot tolerate things which put you to indignation, to outrage,” he says. “You must stand up. I always say to people, ‘Look around; look at what makes you unhappy, what makes you furious, and then engage yourself in some action.” Otherwise? Ask Greece.

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Poverty Rates Swelled In Almost All U.S. States, Cities In 2010

October 20, 2011

The ranks of the poor rose in almost all U.S. states and cities in 2010, despite the end of the longest and deepest economic downturn since the Great Depression the year before, U.S. Census data released on Thursday showed. Mississippi and New Mexico had the highest poverty rates, with more than one out of every five people in each state living in poverty. Mississippi’s poverty rate led, at 22.4 percent, followed by New Mexico at 20.4 percent. New Hampshire had the lowest poverty rate, at 8.3 percent, making it the only state with a poverty rate below 10 percent. Twelve states had poverty rates above 17 percent, up from five in 2009, while poverty rates in 10 metropolitan areas topped 18 percent, the data showed. “We saw the recession hit and unemployment increase, but we haven’t seen a dramatic drop in unemployment,” said Elizabeth Kneebone, a senior research associate focusing on metropolitan issues at the Brookings Institution. “Because we’re still in this weak recovery, we could see these numbers get worse before they get better,” she added. The U.S. recession that began in 2007 took a steep toll across the country, sparing only a few places from rising joblessness and crashing incomes. More than a year after the recession officially ended in 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate remains above 9 percent; the poverty rate rose to 15.3 percent in 2010 from 14.3 percent in 2009. “No state had a statistically significant decline in either the number of people in poverty or the poverty rate between 2009 and 2010.” the Census reported. Kneebone, of the Brookings Institution, noted that many of the big increases in the poverty rate in the first year of the recession were centered in the inner-mountain west and the Sunbelt. “As the recession deepened and spread to other industries, other regions of the country also saw their numbers increase,” she said, noting that areas reliant on manufacturing had not fully recovered from a downturn earlier in the decade when the recession struck. The depth of poverty levels increased in 2010, with 6.8 percent of people having incomes that were no more than half of the federal government’s official poverty threshold. That was up from 6.3 percent in 2009. Poverty ran deepest in Washington, D.C., where one in 10 people had incomes less than 50 percent the threshold. The Census also looked at the 366 metropolitan areas that account for more than 80 percent of the U.S. population. The Texas region defined by the cities of McAllen, Edinburg and Mission had the highest poverty rate in the country — 33.4 percent. It was followed the Fresno, California, area at 26.8 percent. Poverty rates topped 18 percent in metropolitan areas centered around El Paso, Texas; the cities of Bakersfield, Modesto and Stockton in California; Augusta, Georgia; Memphis, Tennessee; and both Durham and Greensboro in North Carolina as economic problems spread from core urban areas to the suburbs over the decade. “Many communities are facing this challenge in a magnitude they’ve never had to deal with before,” said Kneebone, who said there are now 2.7 million more people in suburbs than cities. Despite the deep poverty levels in the District of Columbia, the nation’s capital, the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area had the lowest poverty rate in the nation, at 8.4 percent, due to its wealthier suburbs. Honolulu had the second lowest, 9.1 percent. The numbers of people collecting food stamps and relying on Medicaid, the government healthcare program for the poor, skyrocketed in recent years. The Census also found that in 2010 more people collected other forms of public assistance than in 2009. In 2010, 3.3 million people received public assistance at some time in the year, an increase of 300,000 from 2009. Among U.S. households, about 2.9 percent received public assistance in 2010, up from 2.7 percent in 2009. The states with the highest public assistance participation included Alaska, Maine, Vermont and Washington. The states with the lowest rates were Louisiana, Alabama and Wyoming. Although Alaska and Maryland had poverty rates of 9.9 percent in 2010, the margins of error for those states were greater than 0.3 percent. (Editing by Leslie Adler) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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G20 Finance Ministers To Back Big Bank Capital Surcharge

October 15, 2011

PARIS/LONDON (Francesca Landini and Huw Jones) – Finance ministers and central bankers from the world’s top economies are set to back a mandatory capital surcharge on big lenders of up to 2.5 percent to be phased in from 2016. A draft communique from a meeting of G20 finance chiefs endorses a 1-2.5 percent capital surcharge on top banks like Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan Chase. The aim is to make sure they have enough capital to withstand market turbulence so that taxpayers won’t have to rescue banks again in the next crisis. A summit of the G20 leaders in Cannes, France in early November is set to give final approval to the surcharge plan and name the banks affected, known as global systemically important financial institution or G-SIFIs, G20 sources said. “Now that the framework applicable to G-SIFIs is agreed, we urge the Financial Stability Board to define the modalities to extend expeditiously the framework to all SIFIs,” the draft communique obtained by Reuters said. Insurers are battling against a surcharge as second tier banks. The charge — which will be in addition to a 7 percent minimum core capital buffer being phased in for all banks from 2013 — is part of a wider package the G20 ministers are set to endorse on Saturday. The other elements include common “tools” for supervisors to wind up ailing banks, compulsory “living wills” or resolution plans for every big bank, and more intensive supervision for large lenders, the communique said. The FSB, which formulates and coordinates financial regulation on behalf of the G20, has already drawn up criteria to determine which banks face a surcharge. It has said 28 banks would be affected if the regime was introduced immediately but G20 sources said the Cannes summit may name up to 50 lenders. POSITION LIMITS The FSB is also expected to update ministers on its work to define the so-called shadow banking sector before thrashing out recommendations next year to regulate it. Supervisors fear that as banks face tougher rules, risky activities could migrate to other parts of the financial system such as money market funds and special vehicles. G20 presidency France appears to have lost its battle to introduce tough curbs on what it sees as speculation in food and energy commodity markets by imposing limits on the size of positions a trader can hold at any given time. G20 sources said the group was expected to approve a report from the International Organization of Securities Commissions, which groups national market watchdogs, on the benefit of imposing trading limits but it would remain “optional.” The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is set to discuss fixed limits on Tuesday but in Europe there is no consensus, with Britain opposed to such permanent curbs. STRONGER FSB Bank of Italy Governor Mario Draghi is expected to propose strengthening the FSB, which he chairs, in order to ensure proper implementation of a welter of new rules the G20 has pledged to introduce, including the bank capital surcharge. Draghi, who steps down as chairman this month to become president of the European Central Bank, is expected to propose more members from emerging markets and developing countries on the FSB’s agenda-setting steering committee. Some Asian and Latin American countries feel the regulatory measures now being finalized plug supervisory holes in European and U.S. markets and want their circumstances to shape future G20 regulatory work. Draghi also wants representatives of finance ministries on the steering committee to add political clout. “Draghi will also discuss the possibility to give FSB a legal personality and to allow it to receive resources from more diversified sources,” a G20 source said. Saturday’s meeting will also touch on who will replace Draghi. Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is seen by some G20 officials as the main contender so far that the Cannes summit will endorse. G20 ministers are also expected to look at proposals to reinforce non-binding draft principles on financial consumer protection authored by the OECD which have been criticized for being too weak. (Additional reporting by Daniel Flynn in Paris, editing by Mike Peacock) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Report: Tax Cuts For The Wealthy Cost U.S. Millions Every Hour

October 14, 2011

Tax cuts for America’s top earners are costing everyone, every hour of every day, a new report from the National Priorities Project finds. Tax cuts for the wealthiest five percent of Americans cost the U.S. Treasury $11.6 million every hour, according to the National Priority Foundation. America’s top earners will get an average tax cut of $66,384 in 2011, while the bottom 20 percent will get an average cut of $107. The report comes as party leaders wrangle over the best way to curb the nation’s budget deficit, protesters around the world demonstrate against income inequality and corporate greed and Republican presidential candidates offer their economic plans to voters. Former pizza company CEO and Republican presidential candidate, Herman Cain, has been getting lots of attention in recent weeks for “999 Plan” which would cap the corporate, income and sales tax rates at 9 percent. President Barack Obama unveiled his deficit reduction plan last month , which aims to curb the national debt through a combination of tax cuts and increased spending. The plan includes a proposal to increase taxes on millionaires — the so-called Buffett rule, name for famed billionaire investor Warren Buffett. In an August op-ed in The New York Times , Buffett argued that lawmakers should put an end to tax breaks for the “super-rich.” After Obama announced the proposal Republican leaders criticized the Buffett rule calling it “class warfare.” Still, there are some Republicans who support increasing taxes on the wealthy. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan — a registered Republican — told CNBC earlier this month that he supports allowing the George W. Bush-Era tax cuts for the wealthy to expire. That could because the tax cuts are weighing on the national debt. The non-partisan Center for Budget and Priorities found that the Bush tax cuts costs about the same as the shortfall from Social Security in the ten years after they were signed into law. If the U.S. reverted to Clinton-era marginal tax rates, the U.S. Treasury would net an additional $72 billion annually , according to Citizens for Tax Justice. In addition, increasing taxes on the wealthy could also help to narrow the widening wealth gap. The net worth of the bottom 60 percent of U.S. households — about 100 million households — is lower than that of Forbes 400 richest Americans. Tax cuts for the wealthy provided Americans making more than $1 million with a $128,832 benefit, while Americans earning from $40,000 to $50,000 got an $860 benefit on average .

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Euro zone crisis set to dominate G20 Paris meeting

October 14, 2011

By Catherine Bremer and Daniel Flynn PARIS (Reuters) – G20 finance chiefs and central bank heads from the world’s biggest economies meet in Paris on Friday needing to find a solution to a deepening euro zone debt crisis that has fanned fears of a global recession. Underlining the challenge for European policymakers, Standard and Poor’s cut Spain’s long-term credit rating, citing the country’s high unemployment, tightening credit and high private sector debt. “This meeting takes place in a context where the absolute priority for the success of the G20 is to find the elements for the stability of the euro zone,” a source at the French finance ministry said. French and German officials are battling to flesh out the bones of a crisis resolution plan in time for a European Union summit on October 23. Fears about the damage a default by Greece — and possibly others — could inflict on the financial system have driven a confidence-sapping bout of market volatility since late July, with global stocks falling 17 percent from their 2011 high in May. With impatience growing over the crisis, and its implications for the rest of the world, finance chiefs from outside the bloc are expected to speak frankly. “This meeting is an important staging point before (a G20 summit in) Cannes and a valuable opportunity to put pressure on the euro zone,” said a non-euro zone G20 delegate. Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty set the tone late on Thursday, telling reporters before leaving Ottawa that euro zone actions were short of what is needed. Japan would urge its European partners to support the continent’s banks, Finance Minister Jun Azumi said. RISK OF DIVISION Unlike in 2009 when the G20 launched a coordinated stimulus to pull the world out of crisis, the forum is at risk of division as the rest of the world chafes at Europe’s dithering over a debt crisis that started two years ago in Greece, and as Washington and Beijing spar over the yuan currency. Paris and Berlin are taking time to agree on how to recapitalize banks and while Germany favors a second round of losses for Greek bondholders, Paris is reluctant. The two euro heavyweights also differ on the idea of joint bond issuance for the euro zone, with Germany loath to see its debt costs rise. The Franco-German crisis plan is likely to ask banks to accept big losses on their Greek debt and should lay out a system for recapitalizing troubled banks, whose shares have been pounded by fears about Greek exposure. At its core will be an agreement on how to increase the firepower of the EFSF rescue fund, and it should also set out a timeframe for ramping up economic coordination, with closer governance and explicit national laws on balancing budgets. A key concern has been that, whilst the EFSF has the resources to cope with bailouts for Greece, Portugal and Spain, it would be overwhelmed by the need to rescue a bigger economy such as Italy or Spain. The latter two countries, the bloc’s third and fourth biggest economies respectively, have seen their bond yields pushed up by markets worried at high public and private debt levels and weak growth. In Spain, some banks are seen as vulnerable after the bursting of a property bubble, and the country is still struggling with labor market reforms. “Despite signs of resilience in economic performance during 2011, we see heightened risks to Spain’s growth prospects due to high unemployment, tighter financial conditions, the still high level of private sector debt, and the likely economic slowdown in Spain’s main trading partners,” S&P said. The agency’s downgrade of the nation’s long-term rating to AA- from AA mirrored a similar move last week by rival Fitch. The G20 may refer to the euro crisis in its communique and in closing news conferences on Saturday evening, but little else of substance is likely to be inked in. CHINA MAY OFFER GROWTH, NO YUAN SHIFT This week’s talks may give the green light to regulators for new rules on banks deemed ‘too big to fail’, including capital surcharges, due to be officially approved in Cannes. Yet any concrete progress on bigger goals such as setting parameters to measure global imbalances and reining in commodity market volatility and speculative capital flows is unlikely to come before a November 3-4 summit in Cannes, where France passes the G20 baton to Mexico. The finance ministry source said that for Cannes, France hoped to have two or three measures agreed for countries showing imbalances: consolidation measures for those with high deficits and stimulus measures for those with surpluses. “We are going to try to make some progress and obtain, perhaps not tomorrow or Saturday but by Cannes, a list of measures country by country which corresponds to what is needed to relaunch global economic activity,” he said. “These must be measures which will have an impact on the real economy.” A separate G20 source said after preparatory talks late on Thursday that China would commit in Paris to boost its consumption through a five-year plan, via households and companies as well as infrastructure, as the G20 seeks tough fiscal commitments from the euro zone and the United States. The G20 countries make up 85 percent of global output. An April G20 meeting placed seven large economies under review — the debt-burdened United States, export-rich China, France, Britain, Germany, Japan and India. Officials have said privately the aim was to get Beijing to discuss the yuan, and China’s cooperation is essential to the success of the process. France has dangled the prospect of the yuan entering the basket of currencies making up the IMF’s Special Drawing Right (SDR) in a bid to divert the debate away from its value and onto the criteria of free “usability” required for this. But the euro zone crisis has derailed French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s hopes of using his G20 presidency to launch a fundamental rethink of the global financial system and its reliance on the U.S. dollar. China and the United States sparred this week over a U.S. Senate bill to press Beijing to raise the yuan’s value, and the issue is likely to create a sideshow at the G20 talks, even if the euro zone crisis pushes it off center stage. (Additional reporting by Randall Palmer, David Milliken, Francesca Landini, Kevin Yao and Abhijit Neogy; Editing by Louise Ireland and Alex Richardson)

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Seasoned Activists Critique Wall Street Protests

October 9, 2011

NEW YORK — To veterans of past social movements, the Occupy Wall Street protests that began in New York and spread nationwide have been a welcome response to corporate greed and the enfeebled economy. But whether the energy of protesters can be tapped to transform the political climate remains to be seen. “There’s a difference between an emotional outcry and a movement,” said Andrew Young, who worked alongside the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. as a strategist during the civil rights movement and served as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. “This is an emotional outcry. The difference is organization and articulation. The nearly four-week-old protest that began in a lower Manhattan park has taken on a semblance of organization and a coherent message has largely emerged: That “the 99 percent” who struggle daily as the economy shudders, employment stagnates and medical costs rise are suffering as the 1 percent who control the vast majority of the economy’s wealth continues to prosper. Labor unions and students joined the protest on Wednesday, swelling the ranks for a day into the thousands, and lending the occupation a surge of political clout and legitimacy. President Barack Obama said Thursday that the protesters were “giving voice to a more broad-based frustration about how our financial system works;” some Republicans have been seeking to cast Occupy Wall Street as class warfare. The growing cohesiveness and profile of the protest have caught the attention of public intellectuals and veterans of past social movements. “I think if the idea of the movement is to raise the discontent that a lot of people from different walks of life and different persuasions have on the economic inequity in this country – it’s been perfect,” said the Rev. Al Sharpton, who plans to broadcast his nationally syndicated radio show from the park on Monday and five days later lead a jobs march in Washington, D.C. He said he felt it was necessary to be there to talk about how blacks and Latinos are also buffeted by the economic difficulties. “I think it is more a movement to show dissatisfaction. I think that is effective and useful,” he said. The Rev. Jesse Jackson said the protest was a growing success. “There is a legitimacy to their demands for economic reconstruction,” he said, with the analysis of the problems in the economic system “dead on,” as he wrote in a commentary. He said the protest could become a powerful movement if “it remains disciplined, focused and nonviolent – and turns some of their pain into voting power.” History is littered with social movements that failed to emerge as political forces to create lasting change – including mass labor protests to end unemployment and to call attention to job injustices, said Immanuel Ness, a professor of political science at Brooklyn College and the editor of the “Encyclopedia of American Social Movements.” He compared it to the tea party movement, saying both were raising concerns about general anxieties over the economic system. “The messaging is directed at working people,” he said. “Both the tea party and Occupy Wall Street are arguing that something needs to change. The question is, What is the source of the problem?” In the late 1990s, a global movement to reject corporate-driven globalization took to the streets, most famously in the U.S. by shutting down the 1999 meeting of the World Trade Organization in Seattle. In spite of several actions aimed at summits by world institutions, the “movement of movements,” as it soon came to be known, faded away. Much like the Occupy Wall Street protests, one of the main criticisms was that it lacked a cohesive message. Todd Gitlin, an author and former president of the Students for a Democratic Society in the mid-1960s, attended Wednesday’s rally and said the emerging movement was different. The demands of the protesters were crystallizing around calls to tax the wealthy to address inequality, he said. “`We are the 99 percent’ is a clear message,” he said. “It is unfair and in fact disgusting that the American political economy is run for the benefit of a plutocracy. I don’t see how that can be misunderstood.” But he said the movement was still evolving and it remains to be seen whether it can evolve as an effective organization. “This is the new order of movements. They’re informal and ragged, and yet if they’re well-timed, they touch a nerve and get translated by actually existing political forces,” he said. U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina, the third-highest ranking Democrat in the House, is convinced the movement will bring about political change. “I consider this movement really to be the most heartwarming thing I’ve seen since President Obama’s election,” he told The Associated Press in a phone interview Friday. “I hope nobody gets discouraged. I think the impact could be very significant on the psyche of the country as well as on the disposition of members of Congress.” He disagrees that it lacks a coherent message and said many of the people he marched with during the civil rights era likely wouldn’t have been able to put into words their reasons or frustrations, either. “They all knew something was wrong,” he said. “They knew that it just wasn’t right to have to get up out of your seat and give some white person your seat on a bus. They may not be able to explain to you exactly why I’m out here marching; they may not even be able to relate that lunch counter to that city bus or to a ride on the train or to walking down the sidewalk having to step off the sidewalk when approached by a white person, which was the order of the day.” Ambassador Young said that to be effective, the protests need a serious discussion component and that leadership needs to emerge. “I can understand people being frustrated with Wall Street, but this just needs to be more than people voicing their frustrations and a few leaders having their 15 minutes of fame,” he said. “It is important for those who have thought through their values and objections to somehow be heard.” Naomi Klein, whose writings helped shape the anti-neoliberal globalization movement that emerged in the late 1990s, made an appearance Thursday at Zuccotti Park, where she delivered a speech to the protesters. In a version of the talk posted on her website, she offered praise and a warning. “It is a fact of the information age that too many movements spring up like beautiful flowers but quickly die off,” she said. “It’s because they don’t have roots. And they don’t have long-term plans for how they are going to sustain themselves. So when storms come, they get washed away.” ___ Associated Press writers Errin Haines in Atlanta and Seanna Adcox in Columbia, S.C., contributed to this report.

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Government Shutdown Looms After Senate Blocks House Funding Bill

September 23, 2011

On Friday, the Senate blocked a short-term budget bill ahead of a looming deadline to keep the federal government open through November 18. This is a developing story… More information to come…

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SEC’s Proposed Rule To Stop Banks From Profiting At Client’s Expense

September 19, 2011

(Sarah N. Lynch) – Underwriters or sponsors of asset-backed securities would be banned for one year from taking positions to profit from investors’ losses under a plan released by U.S. securities regulators on Monday. The proposal by the Securities and Exchange Commission would get at the very heart of issues raised by U.S. Senate investigators in a report earlier this year that accused Goldman Sachs of positioning itself to profit from clients’ losses on complex securities that it packaged and sold. The proposal would also prohibit the kinds of conflicts that were seen in the SEC’s civil case against Goldman in 2010 by banning third parties from helping assemble an asset-backed pool that would let those parties profit from investors’ losses. In the Goldman case, the SEC accused the bank of creating and marketing a CDO known as ABACUS 2007-AC1 without telling investors that hedge fund Paulson & Co helped choose the underlying securities and was betting against them. Goldman later settled the case for $550 million. The SEC’s proposal, expected to be put out for public comment later on Monday, would implement a provision in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street overhaul law that sought to prevent big banks from betting against financial products that they package and sell to investors. The one-year ban from taking an opposite market position from investors would not apply in certain key cases, such as when a firm is hedging its risk or acting as a market-maker. It would prohibit underwriters, placement agents, initial purchasers, sponsors, or any of their affiliates or subsidiaries of an asset-backed security from shorting the assets in the pool and creating a material conflict for investors. The shorting ban would be in effect for one year after the first closing of the sale. The securities industry will likely pay very close attention to how the SEC’s proposal fleshes out the details of the exemptions. If the SEC is too restrictive in the kinds of permitted activities, some industry executives have warned it could impede the recovery of the securitization market. (Reporting by Sarah N. Lynch; editing by John Wallace) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Ben Zolno: Top 5 Ways Hippies Can Make You Rich

September 16, 2011

For some, the American dream is having a three-car-garage McMansion, a place to raise and spoil your kids, an honest, high-paying job, peace of mind and enough cash to be worry-free into an early retirement. Maybe that’s not working out so well for you if you’re trying to do it all on your own, and even if you’ve done it on your own, fulfilling your desires may be coming at the expense of others’ needs. But the economy of scale in communal living with you and your closest dozen best friends will have you dropping your jacket and tie and for a tie-dye t-shirt and flowers in your hair. Besides some of the cliches you’ll see in this satire promoting the Art of Community conference starting a week from today (September 23- 25 in California), community living has serious advantages that are looking more and more appealing to the average American feeling the hard times of the recession, especially those able to connect the dots of our daily headlines to see the future of food, oil, water and world economy. Here are the Top 5 Ways Hippies Can Make You Rich, with the life-time value of each. #1 Cheap Land Worth: $500k+ On your own, if you have only $50k to put down for a land deposit, your choices are limited. If you got together with 20 community members, you’re looking at a million bucks, just to start. That’s the choice between mortgaging a shed on an empty lot or owning several hundred acres outright in some parts of the country. With that much space and lower debt, you can build a home much larger than you’d be able to afford to otherwise. From there, you can either tend the land and preserve it for generations to come, or all work together and hope to flip it and get filthy rich, if you still have that capitalist streak in you. #2 Cheap Child Rearing Worth: $100k+ “It takes a village to raise a child… ” or if you do it on your own, it’ll take a nanny, a backyard playground with toxic herbicides that a gardener must apply monthly, putting lessons for peewee golf tournaments, and more. Intentional communities often offer collective childcare agreements, and even home-school, saving you tens of thousands of dollars on daycare and private school tuition you’d have to pay for schools that give a child such individualized attention. It allows each parent free time to get more business done or, Gaia forbid, just relax. Additionally, community living is like giving your kid dozens of aunts and uncles, who provide a wide variety of perspectives and experiences, giving your child diverse knowledge that will serve as a head start into the scholastic and, eventually, business world. If you live in a really eco-focused community, they may discuss maintaining a one-child policy, which is about the most environmentally responsible thing you can do . #3 Cheap Labor Worth: $200k+ Most intentional communities share chores, like landscaping, gardening, building upkeep and other maintenance that would cost you thousands of dollars a year in parts and labor you’d pay someone else to do for your home, so if you do your share of the work, you’re taken care of. You can, of course, do these things on your own time, when you’re not commuting to your nine-to-six job (or looking for work), not watching the kids, not paying bills, and not going to therapy because you can’t handle how crazy your life has become. Speaking of therapy… #4 Cheap Therapy Worth: $250k+ Healthy hippie communities have two shoulders to cry on for every community member, which they’re happy to loan out, as they know they have more than they’ll ever need right next door. Besides, having many of life’s economic and social needs taken care of by sharing resources and living in a less isolated atmosphere means you’re likely less prone to the varieties of depression that can take hold in the modern rat race . #5 Cash Worth: $500k+ While the vast majority of intentional communities are simply setups like cohousing , and co-ops , some are closer to what you imagine — a bunch of groovy folks growing tofu together . Why not start a community where everyone works together to make a product that can make you (and your community) real income? Of course, it’d have to be a compostable, carbon-neutral, sustainable product, and you’d have to make sure all the workers get an equal share of the cash, but you won’t mind so much — you’ll actually rejoice in the egalitarian love — because by then, you’ll have learned the value of #1 through #4, happy to have finally learned how to hop off the hamster wheel. For more info, see Art of Community , or contact the author, who lives in an intentional community just outside San Francisco, CA. Namaste.

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New Book: Geithner Ignored Obama Order On Banks

September 16, 2011

NEW YORK — A new book offering an insider’s account of the White House’s response to the financial crisis says that U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner ignored an order from President Barack Obama calling for reconstruction of major banks. According to Pulitzer Prize-winning author Ron Suskind, the incident is just one of several in which Obama struggled with a divided group of advisers, some of whom he didn’t initially consider for their high-profile roles. Suskind interviewed more than 200 people, including Obama, Geithner and other top officials for “Confidence Men: Wall Street, Washington, and The Education of A President,” which will be released Sept. 20. The Associated Press purchased a copy on Thursday. The book states Geithner and the Treasury Department ignored a March 2009 order to consider dissolving banking giant Citigroup while continuing stress tests on banks, which were burdened with toxic mortgage assets. In the book, Obama does not deny Suskind’s account, but does not reveal what he told Geithner when he found out. “Agitated may be too strong a word,” Suskind quotes Obama as saying. Obama says later in the book that he was trying to be decisive but “the speed with which the bureaucracy could exercise my decision was slower than I wanted.” Geithner says in the book that he did not recall that Obama was mad at him about the Citigroup decision and rejected allegations contained in White House documents that his department had been slow to enact the president’s plans. “I don’t slow walk the president on anything,” Geithner told Suskind. “The Citbank incident, and others like it, reflected a more pernicious and personal dilemma emerging from inside the administration: that the young president’s authority was being systematically undermined or hedged by his seasoned advisers,” Suskind writes. Suskind states that Obama accepts the blame for mismanagement in his administration while noting that restructuring the financial system was complicated and could have resulted in deeper financial harm. One of the major complaints about Obama’s administration is that it was too easy on major financial institutions, including Citi. The president had wanted Treasury officials to focus on a proposal to dissolve the bank, but no plan was ever created, the book states. In a February 2011 interview with Suskind, Obama acknowledges another ongoing criticism – that he is too focused on policy and not on telling a larger story, one the public could relate to. Obama is quoted as saying he was elected in part because “he had connected our current predicaments with the broader arc of American history,” but that such a “narrative thread” had been lost. Obama observes that he and fellow Democrats Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter “all have sort of the disease of being policy wonks.” Suskind’s book supports other accounts of disagreement among advisers over how large a stimulus was necessary to revive the economy and how aggressively to deal with financial institutions that had become “too big to fail.” Larry Summers, the former White House economic adviser, is quoted as lamenting that he and others felt “home alone” and that mistakes made under Obama would not have happened under President Clinton, for whom Summers also served. Interviewed by Suskind, Summers initially denied making such comments, then acknowledged them, saying he was frustrated at having “five issues” of major importance to deal with at once and not “five times as many” officials to handle them. The book says one of Obama’s top advisers, former chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, was not the president’s first choice for the position. According to Suskind, Emanuel’s name was not even on the initial short list, which included White House aide Pete Rouse. An investigative reporter, Suskind won a Pulitzer Prize in 1995 while working for the Wall Street Journal. His other books include “The Way of the World” (2008), which focused on national security, and “The Price of Loyalty” (2004). That best-seller was an account of the Bush administration and its first treasury secretary, Paul O’Neill, that includes what became a widely cited remark by then-Vice President Dick Cheney: “Reagan proved that deficits don’t matter.” Suskind’s 1998 book, “A Hope Unseen,” grew out of the series of articles that won him a Pulitzer for feature writing. Other recent books about the Obama administration include Bob Woodward’s “Obama’s Wars,” which focused on foreign policy, and Jonathan Alter’s “The Promise,” which covered his first year in office.

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Goldman asset management CIO Domotorffy retires

September 15, 2011

By Lauren Tara LaCapra and Matthew Goldstein (Reuters) – Katinka Domotorffy, the head of Goldman Sachs Group Inc’s quantitative investment strategies group, will leave the bank at the end of the year, according to an internal memo, as one of its biggest hedge funds continues to suffer from weak performance. Domotorffy is a Goldman veteran who joined the bank in 1998 as a portfolio manager and researcher. She took on her most recent title as chief investment officer and head of QIS within the asset management division in 2009 when Mark Carhart and Raymond Iwanowski, co-founders of Goldman’s prominent Global Alpha Fund hedge fund, retired. Armen Avanessians will be taking over as head of the global quantitative business, according to the memo obtained by Reuters that was sent by Timothy O’Neill and Edward Forst, co-global heads of investment management. Goldman also hired Ron Hua as a partner to serve as chief investment officer and head of quantitative equity alpha businesses. The Global Alpha Fund is down 12 percent this year, according to sources familiar with the matter. As a quantitative hedge fund, Global Alpha hops in and out of positions quickly and uses arbitrage strategies to heighten gains. The fund gained prominence in the boom years leading up to the financial crisis and was seen as a proxy for Goldman’s market savvy, but has been riddled with losses and redemption requests since then. The broader hedge fund industry was sacked by losses in August due to heightened volatility across nearly all markets and strategies. The average hedge fund was down 2.32 percent last month, according to Hedge Fund Research. Avanessians is a partner who joins QIS from Goldman’s securities division. He was involved in quantitative, electronic, rules-based and analytical businesses, according to the memo. Hua joins the firm as a partner from the hedge fund PanAgora Asset Management, where he oversaw $12 billion in equity assets under management as chief investment officer. (Reporting by Lauren Tara LaCapra, Matthew Goldstein and Jennifer Ablan in New York; Editing by Gary Hill)

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Sen. Fritz Hollings: Getting Money for That

September 14, 2011

I thought the president in his job speech would tell how the country could make a comeback. Instead, he told how he could make a comeback. President Obama kicked off his re-election campaign a la Harry Truman blaming a “do nothing Congress” for not passing his jobs bill. The country is in a depression. But our problem is not primarily economic, It’s political. Globalization is a competition among nations to attract investment and production as each nation builds its economy. But the United States is not competing; not building its economy. Corporate America, the principal entity to create jobs, is off-shoring jobs faster than we can create them. The job for the president and Congress is to have Corporate America create jobs in America. We must return to our roots. In his first message to the Congress, George Washington emphasized manufacture to build the nation’s economy. And the United States built its manufacture and economy on protective tariffs. We didn’t pass the income tax until 1913. We can stop this hemorrhaging of off-shoring jobs if President Obama would enforce the trade laws on the books like President Kennedy did in 1961, enforcing the War Production Act of 1950 saving the textile industry; like President Nixon imposed a 10% surcharge on imports in 1971 when our trade deficit was a miniscule of what it is today; like President Reagan protected, steel, motor vehicles, computers, machine tools, and imposed a 45% tariff on motorcycle imports in 1984, saving Harley-Davidson. Today we need a value added tax that’s rebated on exports. The corporate income tax is not rebated. All the President and Congress need to do is to take the tax break the government gives to off-shore jobs and give it to Corporate America to on-shore jobs – cancel the corporate tax and replace it with a 6% VAT. Since there are no loopholes in a VAT, we have instant tax reform — and the tax lawyers will howl. It puts them out of business. We can eliminate most of the tax lawyers and lobbyists in Washington and give control back to the people’s representatives. A VAT is easily implemented with computers. 141 countries compete in globalization with a VAT and don’t find it regressive or a “money machine.” Last year, the corporate tax produced $194.1 billion in revenues. A 2010 VAT would have produced $700 billion. Exemptions of $70 billion for the poor leaves $630 billion to pay down the debt. Canceling the corporate tax permits Corporate America to invest $1.2 trillion in off-shore profits to create jobs in the United States. Since the VAT is self-enforcing, we can eliminate much of the internal revenue service and cut the size of government. So rather than a jobs bill that is little more than welfare, the president should submit this tax cut with a VAT that takes the government off steroids, allows Corporate America to make a profit in the United States, stops the hemorrhage of off-shoring jobs, promotes exports, gives instant tax reform, gets rid of the tax lawyers, cuts the size of government, provides billions to pay down the debt and creates millions of jobs. Today, everyone thinks the trouble in Washington is: “They can’t compromise; they can’t agree.” On the contrary, our problem is what the president and all in Congress agree upon. We gave President George W. Bush a balanced budget in 2001, but President Bush and the Congress agreed on tax cuts, wars that weren’t paid for, prescription drugs that weren’t paid for, increasing the national debt $5 trillion in eight years. Now President Obama and Congress also agree to cut taxes, not pay for government, adding $4.3 trillion to the debt in three years. The President and Congress agree that whatever the Super Committee agrees to or refuses to agree to will not take effect until 2013, after the election — not paying for government. Republicans and Democrats love filibusters. One Senator on each side of the aisle holds the floor and the rest of the Senators go to California or New York to fundraise. The nation’s lobbyists are quartered in Washington, and the president and Congress fundraise morning, noon and night. Their biggest contributors, Wall Street, the big banks, and Corporate America, want to keep the off-shore profits flowing. Wall Street and the financial elite love the tax break that prompts off-shore production and jobs and make sure that nothing is done to disturb the subsidy to get rid of jobs in the U. S. So nothing gets done. The president and Congress continue to subsidize “getting rid of jobs” as they all exclaim that their principal goal is to create jobs. Not a single member of the 535-member Congress will introduce a bill to repeal the subsidy, and President Obama didn’t mention the subsidy in his job speech to the Congress. I keep waiting to hear him call for a repeal as he campaigns the country. The president and all in Congress agree on creating jobs — in China. They get money for that.

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How Banks Cause World Hunger [GRAPHIC]

September 14, 2011

Banks are among some of the most hated companies in America , largely for their role in causing a global financial crisis. That reputation could only get worse thanks to one of their more controversial practices: Food Speculation. Banks and other financial speculators are increasingly “betting on food prices in financial markets,” according to this infographic from the World Development Movement . Food prices now account for 70 percent of total expenses in some of the world’s poorer households, hitting a record high in February . Looking forward, the OECD estimates that over the next decade cereal prices will rise 20 percent. That’s still less than meet prices, which are expected to jump by nearly a third . Here is the infographic from the World Development Movement :

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Dan Solin: Jeff Macke Is Wrong: You Can’t Time the Market

September 14, 2011

Jeff Macke is the host of Yahoo’s financial news program, Breakout . His recent column is titled: ‘Why Every Investor Needs to Time the Market.” Macke’s initial premise is that it is a “mathematical fact” that those who have bought stocks over the last 3, 5 or 10 years have lost money “either on an absolute basis or relative to inflation.” He believes investors would have been well served by “stepping aside” and that “buying and holding forever, putting Blue Chips in a drawer forever, or dollar-cost averaging have been tantamount to financial self-abuse.” Each of these assumptions is incorrect. The potential damage to investors who follow this wrong-headed advice is substantial. Well-Advised Investors Had a Fine Decade Well-advised investors hold a globally diversified portfolio of low management fee stock and bond index funds in an asset allocation suitable for them. In The Smartest Portfolio You’ll Ever Own , I give investors portfolios they can implement themselves, using readily available index funds and exchange traded funds. For the decade ending 2010, these portfolios had annualized returns ranging from 5.17 percent to 6.85 percent, depending on amount of exposure to stock market risk. Traders and gamblers have portfolios consisting solely of stocks. Investors determine their asset allocation and do not engage in stock picking or market timing. Market Timing is a Loser’s Game Mr. Macke, who noted that “trading markets is what I do for a living,” opined that you can time the market. According to him, it’s really simple. All you have to do is use “rudimentary tools like purple crayons and rulers.” That’s good to know. He must be a very wealthy man. If an investor with his skill was able to forecast all the months that the NYSE outperformed T-Bills (which should not be very difficult for a skilled market timer) from 1927 through 1978, an investment of only $1000 would have grown to $5.36 billion! Market timing newsletters must have run out of purple crayons. A study ( PDF ) of over 15,000 predictions by 237 market timing investment newsletters over a twelve year period found that almost 95 percent of them had gone out of business. The authors concluded: “There is no evidence that newsletters can time the markets.” Another study featured an interview with Mark Hulbert, who monitors market timing newsletters. Hulbert found that, for the ten year period ending in 1997, all twenty-five newsletters tracked underperformed the S&P 500 index. Mr. Macke provides no support for his market timing recommendations, which is typical of many in the financial media. There is a lot of data on investing. Before you follow the advice of self-styled investment savants, you should act responsibly and take the time to review it. If you do, you will be persuaded by this observation from legendary investor, Benjamin Graham: “If I have noticed anything over these 60 years on Wall Street, it is that people do not succeed in forecasting what’s going to happen to the stock market.” Dan Solin is a Senior Vice President of Index Funds Advisors (ifa.com). He is the author of the New York Times best sellers The Smartest Investment Book You’ll Ever Read , The Smartest 401(k) Book You’ll Ever Read , and The Smartest Retirement Book You’ll Ever Read . His new book, The Smartest Portfolio You’ll Ever Own , was released in September, 2011.The views set forth in this blog are the opinions of the author alone and may not represent the views of any firm or entity with whom he is affiliated. The data, information, and content on this blog are for information, education, and non-commercial purposes only. Returns from index funds do not represent the performance of any investment advisory firm. The information on this blog does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice and is limited to the dissemination of opinions on investing. No reader should construe these opinions as an offer of advisory services. Readers who require investment advice should retain the services of a competent investment professional. The information on this blog is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or class of securities mentioned herein. Furthermore, the information on this blog should not be construed as an offer of advisory services. Please note that the author does not recommend specific securities nor is he responsible for comments made by persons posting on this blog.

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Wealthy More Pessimistic About Economy Than Other Americans: Gallup

September 13, 2011

Wealthy Americans are less confident in the U.S. economy than other Americans for the first time since the financial crisis, heightening the risk of a double-dip recession, a Gallup report showed Tuesday. Eighty percent of upper-Income Americans said in August that the economy is “getting worse,” up from 66 percent in July, according to Gallup’s Economic Confidence Measure. At the same time, 77 percent of middle- and lower- are concerned the economy is getting worse, up from 71 percent in July, the report showed. Wealthier Americans grew increasingly concerned in August after they witnessed pundits threaten financial armageddon without a suitable debt deal and an agreement that ultimately fell short of expectations, said Tim Quinlan an economist for Wells Fargo. The debate and the stock market volatility that came along with it as well as a Eurozone that’s inching closer to crisis may be weighing on wealthier consumers, adding to concern that they won’t spend, Gallup chief economist Dennis Jacobe said in the report. “This is reminiscent of what happened during the financial crisis: upper-income Americans sharply pulled back on their spending, making the recession worse,” Jacobe said in the report. “Upper-income Americans tend to have the disposable income to spend even when other Americans do not. If they reduce their spending going forward, it increases the chances of a double-dip recession.” Wealthy consumers spent an average of $119 dollars a day in August, down from the $128 per day they spent in July, according to a Gallup survey. Still, upper-income Americans are spending more than they did in August of last year. Upper-income earners tend to have more of their wealth invested in the stock market, meaning the stock market swings in August were likely of particular concern to the wealthy. While high earners watched their wealth erode, their poorer counterparts were probably more worried about their dimming jobs prospects. Job creation stalled last month, according to the Labor Department , while the unemployment rate stayed at 9.1 percent. Gallup’s findings mirror other sentiment gauges. Consumer confidence dropped in August to its lowest level in two years, The Conference Board reported last month. The index, included responses from participants surveyed during the a period of historic stock market volatility, The Associated Press reported . During the same period in early August, falling confidence among those making more than $100,000 dragged down Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index. Though a drop in confidence among upper-income Americans is more troubling than declines in general consumer sentiment, Quinlan said the boost in pessimism doesn’t “jive” with “hard data,” including a 0.5 percent jump in retail spending in July. “The fundamentals haven’t deteriorated nearly as much as these various levels of sentiment,” Quinlan said. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s manufacturing index — a gauge of sentiment of purchasing managers in the mid-Atlantic region — plummeted in August to its lowest level since March 2009. Still, actual manufacturing activity grew during the same month, the Institute for Supply Management reported. Quinlan said this is one of multiple discrepancies that indicates a drop in sentiment among wealthier Americans may not be reason for panic. The reality that the U.S. economy may continue along at its pace of anemic growth could be hitting small business owners and corporate managers, who tend to be wealthier, contributing to the decline, the Gallup report said. Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist for the National Federation of Independent Businesses — a small business advocacy group — echoed the sentiment, saying the the U.S. economic outlook appears bleak deterring businesses from investing. ”Private sector decision makers think longer term and they don’t like what they see,” Dunkelberg said in a statement released Tuesday with the NFIB’s monthly small business survey . ”There is little clarity or certainty. When people are uncertain about the future or fear it, they don’t spend or invest, and they chase after protection—and protection is unlikely to come from the government.”

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Scott Lilly: Double Dip?: Maybe We Need to Take a Lesson from the Past

September 13, 2011

Americans are being bombarded today by two very different messages. One is that federal government borrowing is ruining our economy and costing us jobs. The other is that if the government does not borrow in the near-term to create jobs our economy will languish and the Great Recession could return for a devastating encore. Who is right? This is a very old argument that was resolved many decades ago, yet the new conservative crowd in Washington is firmly of the view that you can create jobs by having the government eliminate jobs. We have not tried that approach in more than 60 years and there is good reason. In January of 1935 President Franklin Roosevelt submitted a budget that he said was in balance except for $4 billion funding for job creation. That $4 billion amounted to more than 50 percent of total federal spending, or nearly 6 percent of gross domestic product, the largest measure of growth in our economy. But after having won re-election half way through that fiscal year, President Roosevelt began to yield to conservative cries for fiscal discipline. Among the most outspoken was Senator Josiah Baily, a Democrat from North Carolina, who told the Senate in 1937: “Do not do nothing while America drifts down the inevitable gulf of collectivization . . . . Give enterprise a chance and I will give you the guarantees of a happy and prosperous America.” Sen. Baily along with the Senate Republican leadership produced a conservative manifesto that sounds eerily familiar. An “immediate revision of taxes on capital gains and undistributed profits in order to free investment funds” was their first concern. “Reduced expenditures to achieve a balanced budget, and thus, to still fears deterring business expansion” was their second. The Fiscal 1937 budget cut government borrowing from the previous level of 5.5 percent of GDP to only 2.5 percent. The following fiscal year the deficit was cut to 0.1 percent, or approximately in balance. Many would consider that good budget policy. But was it good economic policy? Between 1933, when Roosevelt was elected to his first term in the White House, and 1937 employment in the United States grew by more than 20 percent, with 8 million additional jobs. The unemployment rate in that period dipped from an estimated 25.2 percent to 14.3 percent. But the federal government’s subsequent move toward fiscal austerity could not have been more poorly timed. When federal borrowing was slashed from 5.5 percent of GDP to 2.5 percent it effectively sucked that much activity out of the economy. Those directly affected by that decline in federal activity were unable to make purchases and pay debts to others in the economy. Further damage was inflicted. The downward spiral continued in 1938 alongside a 2.4 percent of GDP decline in federal borrowing. What was sold as prudent budget policy was cataclysmic economic and social policy. By mid-1938 half of the 8 million jobs that had been restored to the economy during the New Deal were lost, and the unemployment rate was back above 19 percent. Economists generally classify the economic reversal of 1937 and 1938 as a second depression. Not until military spending began to revive activity in 1940 did unemployment again drop to less than 15 percent. That was long and painful experience. It would be tragic if we permitted the new conservative crowd in Washington to repeat it. Scott Lilly is a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress. This article was first posted at AmericanProgress.org .

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FDIC Approves New Bank Regulations

September 13, 2011

WASHINGTON — The largest U.S. banks will be required to show regulators how they would break up and sell off their assets if they are in danger of failing. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. voted 3-0 to approve the rules, which were mandated under the financial overhaul passed by Congress last year. They are designed to reduce the chances of another government bailout of Wall Street banks in the event of another financial crisis. Among the banks affected are Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. The rules require banks with $50 billion or more in assets to submit plans to the FDIC, the Federal Reserve and the Financial Stability Oversight Council and send revised plans annually.

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Total Number Of Americans In Poverty Swells To All-Time Record

September 13, 2011

WASHINGTON — Even though the Great Recession technically ended in 2009, incomes fell, poverty rose and the number of Americans without health insurance jumped again in 2010, the federal government announced Tuesday. The nation’s poverty rate increased to 15.1 percent in 2010, up from 14.3 percent in 2009 and the highest level since 1993, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s annual Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage report for 2010. An additional 2.6 million people landed in poverty last year, bringing the total to 46.2 million — the highest number since the government started tracking poverty in the 1950s. Unemployment insurance benefits prevented an additional 2 million Americans from slipping into poverty, according to Census data. “Income down, poverty up, health insurance coverage down or flat,” said Ron Haskins, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, in a statement. “The news on economic well-being in the U.S. is not good. Worse, children’s poverty increased for the fourth year in a row and at 22 percent is the highest since 1993. Child poverty has been higher than the 2010 level in only three years since the mid-1960s.” Poverty is defined by family size and income. The federal government considers a family of four with annual earnings of less than $22,314 to be poor. In 2010, 9.2 million families lived in poverty, up from 8.8 million in 2009. The report also found a growing number of families are welcoming adult relatives and others into their homes. The number of households “doubled up” with an additional adult rose to 21.8 million, up 2 million since 2007. The poverty rate for working-age people between 18 and 64 rose to 13.7 percent from 12.9 percent last year, the highest level since the 1960s. Median household income declined 2.3 percent from the year before to $49,445, making the total decline 6.4 percent since the recession began in 2007. But that drop was not evenly distributed: Income declined for whites and blacks, but not for Asians or Hispanics. Poverty increased among every racial and ethnic group except Asian Americans. The share of white Americans living in poverty grew to 13 percent, up from 12.3 percent in 2009. African Americans and Latinos saw similar increases in poverty and remained significantly more likely to be poor than whites. In 2010, black poverty climbed to 27.4 percent from 25.8 percent in 2009, and Latino poverty reached 26.6 percent, up from 25.3 percent in 2009. The share of Americans covered by private health insurance continued its decade-long fall. Nearly 50 million Americans lacked health insurance in 2010, an increase of 900,000 from the previous year. The number of Americans who participate in a government health insurance program, however, continued its four-year climb. Economists expect the health care reform law passed by Congress last year to reverse the trend of people losing insurance coverage in 2014, when the law’s major provisions kick in. In the meantime, a temporary program created by the law to cover the uninsured has so far reached only 21,000 people — far below its expected enrollment. The administration has estimated that as many as 25 million Americans who lack health insurance have pre-existing conditions such as heart disease and diabetes. In 2010, Economists at the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the federal government’s extended unemployment insurance prevented a record poverty rate the year before . In 2009, the rate rose to 14.3 percent. Without unemployment benefits, which paid tens of billions of dollars to middle class families, poverty could have risen to 15.4 percent. The federal extended benefits have remained in effect. They currently support roughly half the unemployed who receive insurance, but are set to expire in January unless Congress acts. CBO’s analysis demonstrated that unemployment insurance mainly supports middle class families. Households with total income more than twice the poverty threshold accounted for 70 percent of the $120 billion the government spent on benefits in 2009. Families with income below the poverty threshold received 8 percent of all benefits. Alice O’Connor, a historian at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and author of “Poverty Knowledge: Social Science, Social Policy and the Poor in Twentieth Century U.S. History,” said explanations for rising poverty often focus on the work ethic and personal choices of the poor. But since the Great Recession, she said, a growing number of Americans have come to understand that the availability of living-wage jobs plays a large role in determining a family’s economic state. Despite that recognition, O’Connor said many still fail to understand the role social policies — such as those that make collective bargaining difficult, or tax income from work and investments differently — contribute to increased poverty. She noted that public health insurance programs for poor children and adults and cash welfare assistance, among other social safety net measures, have seen significant cuts in many cash-strapped states. And many workers — particularly men — are effectively earning less than they did three decades ago, while also lacking access to health insurance and other benefits. “What we are looking at today is really the result of decades of eroded protections for workers and just a declining number of good jobs,” said O’Connor. Tuesday’s report details the share of Americans who live on poverty-level wages or less. That measure is an important indicator of earnings, but it’s not the most telling measure of household economic well-being, said Darrick Hamilton, an economist at The New School. Wealth is what really determines the neighborhood in which most people live, the schools their children attend and what resources they have to shore them up in a crisis, said Hamilton. Wealth is the value of assets and cash that an individual or family has after accounting for debt. “We really need to shift the national dialogue away from looking at snapshots and subsistence income and start taking a closer look at wealth, assets and what their absence or presence means in people’s lives,” said Hamilton. “Education, occupation and income matter,” he added. “But wealth trumps them all because it gives you choices and protection when times are good or times are bad.” In 2009, the most recent year for which wealth data is available, the gap between wealth of the average black and average white household grew to a size unseen since the 1980s, according to a July Pew Research Center report. Median white household wealth was about $113,000. Median black family wealth was about $5,700, and median Latino household wealth was $6,300. Hamilton said that wealth gap exists in large part because much of white household wealth is inherited. The recession has caused families of all races and ethnicities to lose wealth because of a loss or reduction in the value of critical assets, such as homes. The vast differences in median household wealth also help explain why black and Latino poverty rates are more than two times higher than that of white families. Arthur Delaney is the author of ” A People’s History of the Great Recession ,” HuffPost’s first e-book.

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Deutsche Boerse says no squeeze-out in NYSE deal

September 9, 2011

FRANKFURT (Reuters) – Deutsche Boerse late on Thursday said shareholders in the Frankfurt-based exchange operator who had not yet tendered their stock as part of the NYSE Euronext deal, would not be forced to do so as part of a so-called squeeze-out. Around 95.41 percent of Deutsche Boerse’s shareholders have already tendered their shares to Netherlands-based holding company Alpha Beta Holding, the vehicle used to complete the deal with the operator of the New York Stock exchange. Gregor Pottmeyer, chief financial officer of Deutsche Boerse AG, said, “Effecting a squeeze out is not at all necessary to achieve our financial and synergy goals. Deutsche Boerse shareholders who have not yet accepted the exchange offer can do so at unchanged conditions until midnight CET on November 4, 2011.” Duncan Niederauer, chief executive of NYSE Euronext, said, “The overwhelming support we received from both of our shareowner bases has provided us with the maximum flexibility to act in the long term best interest of the new company, and we intend to use this flexibility to generate the strongest possible returns for the future shareowners of Holdco.” (Reporting By Edward Taylor)

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Barney Frank Blasts GOP ‘Arsonists’ For Blocking Obama Nominees

September 2, 2011

Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) sharply criticized Senate Republicans Friday for blocking President Barack Obama’s nominees to head government agencies. “It is the legislative equivalent to an arsonist having set a fire and objecting to a building’s inhabitants using the fire exit,” Frank writes in an op-ed for The Washington Post . Frank presents the case of Richard Cordray, a former state attorney general who was nominated by Obama in July to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Senate Republicans vowed to block Cordray’s nomination — or that of any nominee — without changes designed to weaken the new agency. Cordray is just one in a long line of Obama nominees that Republicans have blocked in order to protect financial institutions, Frank writes. In June, Peter Diamond withdrew his nomination for Federal Reserve governor after failing to gain support from Senate Republicans. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, was just one GOP leader who criticized the nomination, saying Diamond — who won the Nobel Prize in economics in 2010 — lacked monetary policy experience. Shelby also had a hand in ousting Joseph Smith, who was nominated by Obama to be the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. While Frank notes that the Republicans’ ability to object to the independence of the consumer agency is “entirely legitimate,” he does disagree with what he sees as a misuse of power. “Senate Republicans are not entitled to use the confirmation power as a bludgeon to get their way when they cannot do so through the normal legislative process,” Frank writes. As for Cordray, Frank expresses disappointment in the 44 Senate Republicans who have vowed they won’t consider him to head the CFPB. “We’re going to see an extraordinarily qualified administrator of an important consumer protection agency be trashed by the Senate Republican minority because their primary goal is to ensure that financial institutions are not troubled by what they may see as an excessive concern for consumer fairness,” Frank writes. Related video:

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Obama Administration Takes Shots At Bank Of America, JPMorgan

September 1, 2011

WASHINGTON — Two of the nation’s largest mortgage lenders are not doing enough to help Americans avoid foreclosure, the Obama administration said Thursday. The Treasury Department said that Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have done a poor job helping people permanently lower their mortgage payments as part of the government’s signature foreclosure-prevention program. The lenders have rejected people who were eligible for mortgage modifications, Treasury said. The government first criticized the two lenders, along with Wells Fargo & Co. and Ocwen Loan Servicing, in June, and began withholding financial incentives of up to $1,000 per permanent loan modification. Wells Fargo and Ocwen were removed from the list of companies needing “substantial improvement” in the second quarter and will resume receiving the incentives. The mortgage-aid program was launched in 2009 and was intended to help those at risk of foreclosure by lowering their monthly payments. Borrowers start with lower payments on a trial basis. But the program has struggled to convert them into permanent loan modifications. Nearly 1.7 million troubled homeowners received trial modifications over the past two years. But as of July, more than half of them, or roughly 890,000 homeowners, have dropped out of the program entirely. Homeowners have complained that the program is a bureaucratic mess. Many say they were disqualified after banks lost their documents and failed to return their phone calls. Banks have blamed homeowners for failing to submit needed paperwork. Some lenders have disputed the government’s data, saying the findings are based on old reports. Those who are accepted into the program receive interest rates as low as 2 percent for five years. They can repay their loans over a longer period. The median savings for those who remain in the program is about $525 per month.

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Many Big-Name Stocks Now Cheaper Than During Financial Crisis

August 31, 2011

NEW YORK (Rodrigo Campos) – One out of every 10 companies in the S&P 500 index — including stalwarts like Apple and JPMorgan Chase — is now cheaper than during the 2008-2009 market meltdown. Even as S&P 500 earnings soar past Wall Street estimates quarter after quarter, the lack of investor confidence has dropped the forward price-to-earnings ratio of at least 50 of the largest U.S. companies below their crisis lows, according to a screen of Thomson Reuters data. Investors are now willing to risk less cash for every $1 in earnings they expect to rake in for upcoming quarters than they were in 2008 or 2009. The companies in question are not exactly obscure. Besides Apple Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co, others on the list include Microsoft Corp and Wal-Mart Stores Inc, illustrating the extent of investor pessimism. “Risk aversion is so great right now that high quality U.S. common stocks are on sale,” said Jack de Gan, chief investment officer at Harbor Advisory Corp in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. Thomson Reuters data shows that 72 percent of the S&P 500 components beat earnings expectations in the second quarter. Estimates updated Tuesday show full-year earnings growth is seen at 14.1 percent for 2012 –just 0.2 percentage point less than the estimate on July 1, and still higher than the 13.6 percent estimate on April 1. By sector, technology, financials and consumer discretionary shares are trading at valuations not far from their 10-year lows. “It shows an incredible drop in overall confidence, not only in financial markets but in the political environment,” said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co in Lake Oswego, Oregon. “Knowing we are going into a political election year (investors) haven’t embraced what we would consider a decent, steady flow of good earnings.” Apple shares are up 350 percent since the start of 2009, while the company’s forward P/E ratio has fallen to 12.29, down from 15.52 in late November 2008. Apple is one of those companies whose share price is not keeping up with its rapid growth in earnings. Other companies on the list are not growing as rapidly. Wal-Mart has seen same-store sales fall every quarter for two years now. Hewlett-Packard Co, another Dow component on the list, is divesting its personal computer unit amid struggles, as well. But some of the names are stronger: The second-biggest U.S. bank by assets, JPMorgan, with its stock up more than 19 percent since the start of 2009, has seen its forward P/E decline to 6.63 from 9.44 in January 2008. “You have a company with a $200 billion market cap like some of these are, and to make that go up you need a lot of capital inflows,” said Harbor Advisory’s De Gan. “We’ve seen the P/E on some of these stocks basically decline for 10 years; at some point it becomes ridiculous.” (Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Leslie Adler) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Charles Gasparino: Who Is the Best Person to Run Bank of America?

August 30, 2011

If the saga of Bank of America, the country’s largest and most troubled bank, were to be made into a movie, its title would have to be “The Dumbest Men in the Room,” with a starring cast that features its half-witted chief executive officer Brian Moynihan and his equally half-witted board of directors. All of which wouldn’t be so bad if Moynihan and his brain-dead board weren’t running a bank with more than $2 trillion in assets and $1 trillion in customer deposits that the federal government (meaning taxpayers) might have to cover some day if Bank of America hits the skids just as it did during the financial crisis of 2008, and as it almost did in the last couple weeks. Just to recap: BofA’s share price was heading to zero as investors came to believe that all the bailout money, the billions upon billions of guarantees and zero-percent borrowing rates the government handed the bank over the past two years wasn’t working. That’s because on top of everything else, the big bank was facing a new potentially, more devastating liability: untold billions of dollars in losses tied to the sale of faulty mortgages by its Countrywide Financial unit, and Moynihan’s inability to come up with a plan to deal with the problem. The run of the stock appears to have ended last Friday when Warren Buffett pumped $5 billion into BofA in one of the most one-sided deals the market has ever seen (I don’t even need to say who got the short end of this stick), and the company began unloading prime assets like a piece of its stake in the China Construction Bank raising billions of dollars more. Investors seem to be getting comfortable that the worse is over for BofA and that Moynihan is starting to get his act together. The bank’s stock price is no longer heading toward penny-stock territory (shares are now trading at around $8 today), and market talk about another round of government bailouts has ceased, at least for the moment Will it last? Buffett says he thinks so and he’s been saying a lot of nice things about the bank and Moynihan since he announced his big investment. But Buffett’s show support should be seen for what it is: a bribe. Under the terms of the deal, he has already made more than $500 million, with many more hundreds of millions to come. His investment isn’t even a week old. For that reason, investors should remain wary that the biggest bank in the country won’t at some point become the nation’s biggest banking catastrophe. While BofA may be in a better financial position than it was before the 2008 financial crisis (it would be difficult to be any worse), or before Buffett came to the rescue, it’s far from a healthy situation. And one more thing: the bank is being led by possibly the most unqualified CEO in all of corporate America. I say this not because I dislike Moynihan; I’ve met him and he’s seems like a nice enough guy. Some smart people on Wall Street hold him in high regard for basically the same thing; if there is a CEO in financial business who wants to do the right thing, they say it’s probably Brian Moynihan. But desire aside, Moynihan has been nothing short of a klutz as a leader. Part of his problem is that he’s a lawyer by training and lawyers make lousy CEOs (remember Chuck Prince’s messy tenure at Citigroup). But at least Prince proved to be a decent lawyer who fought his way up the corporate ladder to replace Sandy Weill as Citi’s chief executive. The best you can say about Moynihan is that he got the job by default. Before he became CEO, Moynihan was a regarded as B-player at best by his colleagues. He held a variety of jobs inside Bank of America’s vast bureaucracy and failed to stand out at any of them. He was mediocrity personified. Moynihan he did have one thing going for him: he was part of a group of executives who remained at BofA after it purchased Fleet Financial in 2004 where he served as general counsel. And his Fleet lineage helped him when it mattered most. Ken Lewis, under investigation for his financial-crisis purchase of the troubled Merrill Lynch brokerage firm, had resigned. A boardroom showdown over Lewis’s successor ensued with some members wanting an outside candidate and others looking to promote one of Lewis’s cronies. At the time, Moynihan’s name was barely on the long list of candidates. But several former Fleet board members remained on the BofA board, and capitalized on the general dysfunction to promote one of their own. With that, a man least likely to succeed as a CEO became the head of the nation’s largest bank. Moynihan took over in January 2010 and began screwing up from the start. He assured investors that the feds gave BofA the green light to raise its dividend when no green light had been given because the bank’s post-crisis finances weren’t strong enough. Despite mounting evidence that BofA faces a crisis of large magnitude stemming from Countrywide, Moynihan has inexplicable downplayed the bank’s exposure right up to the moment the bank was about to announce its intention to shell out its first mutli-billion settlement to investors holding soured mortgages. In fact, Moynihan has had nearly two years to prepare for the onslaught of Countrywide related claims — one even came from his business partner, Larry Fink, the CEO of Blackrock that BofA had held a huge stake in. Yet when the trouble began earlier in the year, Moynihan didn’t have a clue about how to proceed. “He seemed lost,” one investor who met with Moynihan about the liabilities told the Fox Business Network. What’s even worse, he seems to have learned almost nothing from recent history of financial firms and their top executive assuring everything of OK when it really isn’t. Though people who know Moynihan swear he’s honest, he’s been coming across as CEO in the mold of Dick Fuld and Alan Schwartz — the guys who ran Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns into the ground but not before assuring the markets that their firms were fine before they imploded. Moynihan’s BofA isn’t quite the house of cards of either Bear or Lehman, but he seems to be relying on the Fuld/Schwartz handbook of dissembling when he should be telling the truth. During the recent run on the stock, Moynihan and his PR staff were absurdly spinning that BofA was in absolutely no need of additional capital, downplaying reports, including an early one by the Fox Business Network on August 4, that the bank was looking to cash out of at least part of its stake in the China Construction bank. But between Buffett and the sale of the China Construction stake BofA has raised close to $13 billion in additional capital. The BofA flacks are saying that the moves won’t “dilute” shareholders and place more downward pressure of BofA shares since the bank isn’t selling new stock to come up with the money. But one of the reasons why the Buffett deal is so one-sided is because BofA basically handed the Oracle of Omaha the right to purchase some 700 million shares anytime over the next 10 years — or 7% of all outstanding BofA stock — in what will be the mother of all dilutions once that nice old man from Omaha decides to cash in his chips. Despite all of this, Moynihan’s in-house defenders will tell you that their man is working day and night to fix the bank and repair something he had very little to do with, namely Countrywide. That’s a bit closer to reality since it was his predecessor Lewis on a pre-crisis buying spree to make BofA the world’s largest bank, who snapped up Countrywide in early 2008. But Moynihan wasn’t exactly an innocent bystander in terms of Countrywide. In all those Countrywide-related meetings when he worked as part of Lewis’s management team, did Moynihan even once raise his hand and object to the purchase? The answer from what I understand is no. For all of this experience, of course, Moynihan might be the best person to run BofA for some of the more brain-dead members of the bank’s board, but investors should be demanding something better. So should taxpayers, because if Moynihan fails to fix the problems at Bank of America, they will be paying the ultimate price in the form of another massive government bailout. And all because Brian Moynihan used to work at Fleet.

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Asian Activities Report for August 25, 2011: Roc Oil (ASX:ROC) Reports Half Yearly Results

August 25, 2011

http://www.abnnewswire.net/rss2/menafn/abn_menafn_en.asp Roc Oil Company Limited (ASX:ROC) today releases its Half Year Financial Report for the period ended 30 June 2011. ROC remains on target to …

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Rep. John D. Dingell: Nothing Should Be More Important Than Creating Jobs in America

August 23, 2011

Passing the recent deal to raise the debt ceiling stabilizes our economy by renewing confidence in the U.S. government’s ability to meet its obligations. Part of the deal provided for the establishment of a bipartisan “super committee” to provide recommendations on how to tackle the budget deficit. The committee of twelve members, chosen by Democratic and Republican Party leaders from both Congressional houses, will take on the difficult task of reducing our budget deficit by $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years, with a bipartisan solution due before Thanksgiving. While this committee works against its November 23 deadline, we must keep our nation’s priorities in mind. We must continue to protect this country. We must not permit the middle class to shoulder the entire burden of balancing our nation’s budget. Most Americans agree that any budget deficit reduction plan must include revenue increases; however, any revenue increases must elicit contributions from all Americans regardless of income. We need to make tough choices, but this cannot be accomplished without shared sacrifice. This will require lengthy and thorough dialogue between all parties, where will we need to come together and put the good of the American people above all other interests. I will not vote for any measure this committee makes without a clear demonstration that it involves shared sacrifice by all. I cannot vote for a budget that decimates the programs that middle class Americans rely on, when Wall Street is still getting billions in unjustified tax breaks. I understand that certain aspects of our social entitlement programs must be adjusted to ensure solvency for future generations, and the passage of the health care reform act was the first step in that process. But we still need to recognize that with a still sputtering economy, these programs are more important than ever, and serve as a tremendous help to families nationwide. Now with this historic debt deal in place, it is time to turn the page and focus on the real problems facing Americans, namely jobs. Nothing should be more important than creating jobs in America. With a national unemployment rate of 9.2% and an unemployment rate of 10.5% in Michigan, creating jobs has to be policy makers’ number one priority. Congress must not stop focusing on job creation to instead only concentrate on the budget deficit detour while countless Americans are looking for work. This is not going to be an easy task, but I am fully committed to doing everything I can to help Americans find employment and ensuring the financial security of their families over the years to come. We as politicians cannot be distracted from job creation for the sake of political gamesmanship at the cost of the American taxpayer. I will not fall victim to this, and I call on my colleagues in Congress to do the same.

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Don McNay: The Second Act: Learning From Your Initial Success and Failures

August 23, 2011

And once you’re gone, you can never come back. Neil Young George Bernard Shaw said there are two tragedies in life: One is not to get your heart’s desire. The other is to get it. I learned during my first few years in business exactly what Shaw was talking about. I hit it big at an early age. I started my business at 23, and by 29 I was one of the top producers nationally of mutual funds, annuity, and bond sales for the New York broker with whom I was affiliated. I had achieved the highest levels in the Million Dollar Round Table. I had a huge house in an upscale, gated neighborhood, a red Mercedes Benz convertible, and a big, penthouse-style office on the top floor of one of Lexington’s taller towers. I was featured in Forbes and Financial Planning . One year later both my lawyer and accountant recommended that I file for bankruptcy. My net worth had plummeted far into the red, and banks were breathing down my neck. My business was still going strong, but I had gotten into a real estate deal that I didn’t truly understand with people I didn’t know well. And, it happened at a time when the real estate market suddenly turned south. Initially, I had grown my business by reinvesting profits and being frugal. I had lived modestly and had no debt. I knew my business backward and forward and spent a ton of money educating myself and my staff. Suddenly, my cash was drained by a sideline investment and the expensive lifestyle I had decided to adopt. I didn’t have the money to properly reinvest in my business and in continuing education. My focus went from a long-term view to just getting through the day. I made the classic mistake of a successful entrepreneur. I thought my first success meant that I would be successful at everything. I got away from the things that had gotten me to the top. If you study the history of entrepreneurs, you’ll see that many do what I did. Their initial idea works. They become successful but then get distracted with outside interests and start to lose the single-mindedness that made them a success. Some recognize their mistakes and regain their focus. Others do not and their businesses fail. I was lucky. I was able to see what I did wrong and make corrections. The year was painful, but I learned lessons I will never forget. The experience was as valuable as a Harvard MBA, and I paid more than the school’s tuition to achieve it. In order to get back on track, I had to go back to my roots like Rocky did in the movie Rocky III . I had to regain the “eye of the tiger.” I thought long and hard about what I needed, what I wanted, and the mistakes I had made. I sat near the lighted, uphill waterfall in my massive house, looked at my beautiful car, and realized the house and car weren’t important. The only creature comforts I needed were an ice maker, cable television (this was pre-Internet), a recliner, and air-conditioning. What I really valued was financial independence and the challenge to be the best at what I did. I couldn’t be independent if banks, creditors, and a fancy lifestyle controlled my life. A line in Bill Hybels’ book, Christians in the Marketplace: Making Your Faith Work on the Job , hit me. It essentially said “if you spend all your time making money to support a material possession like a car, the car has replaced God in your life.” Or as the band Zoe Speaks said several years after Hybels, “If money’s our God, I want a new religion.” My religion had become keeping up my lifestyle and managing debt. Once I realized what I really valued — financial independence — it was easy to implement a different plan. I ditched the big house and traded in the Mercedes for a Buick. I relocated my panoramic office to a small one on a ground floor. I sold most of the furniture in my home, except for the bed and recliner, and moved to a modest apartment that had air-conditioning, an ice maker, and cable. I read and reread Pizza Tiger , the biography of Tom Monaghan, the founder of Domino’s Pizza. Monaghan’s career path had the same sudden boom and sudden bust before he finally broke through to an international level. I couldn’t afford to buy the book so I kept checking it out of the public library. (I own two copies of it now.) Monaghan’s story gave me hope and inspiration. I eventually knocked out my debt as I reinvested in my business and education. I got a second master’s degree in financial services and my fourth professional designation. Going back to the original formula got me on a growth path again. Four years after I ignored the advice to file bankruptcy, I was out of debt and my business was bigger than ever. “Stick to what you know” seems like common-sense advice, but I have watched many business people make the same mistake I did. Once things start to go well, entrepreneurs think success will last forever. They often get into ventures outside of their expertise and start spending too much money and time on a fancy lifestyle. When they crash, they do one of two things. They give up and quit or they “double down,” to use a gambling term, and focus harder on the original business. Like Monaghan did with Domino’s Pizza. After he doubled down, his company reached success beyond his wildest dreams. He made millions, enough for him to buy the Detroit Tigers baseball team. As I made my comeback, I used to play an obscure Jim Croce song, Age, every single day. Two lines were my mantra. “And now I’m in my second circle and I’m headed for the top, I’ve learned a lot of things along the way. I’ll be careful while I’m climbing because it hurts a lot to drop.” Some of the lessons I teach throughout my new book, Wealth Without Wall Street: A Main Street Guide to Making Money , such as moving your money to a local bank and not having a boatload of debt, were learned through hard and painful experiences. Experiences I want others to avoid. When people hit it big, they need to stick to what they know, live below their means, avoid credit cards and loans, and put some money away for a rainy day. Otherwise the first act can be a final act. Don McNay, CLU, ChFC, MSFS, CSSC of Richmond Kentucky is an award-winning financial columnist. He is the author of the book, Wealth Without Wall Street: A Main Street Guide to Making Money, which is currently available on the Kindle. The hardback copy will be released on September 20. McNay founded McNay Settlement Group, a structured settlement and financial consulting firm, in 1983, and Kentucky Guardianship Administrators LLC in 2000. McNay has Master’s Degrees from Vanderbilt and the American College and is in the Hall of Distinguished Alumni of Eastern Kentucky University. McNay is a Quarter Century member of the Million Dollar Round Table and has four professional designations in the financial services.

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Pamela Yellen: What’s Great for the American Consumer Is Bad for Our Nation’s Economy

August 22, 2011

Three cheers for the American consumer. While our leaders in Washington pay little more than lip service to the need to reduce our nation’s debt addiction, Americans by the millions are working harder than anytime in the past 40 years to live within their means. Far fewer consumers are carrying credit card balances these days and, better yet, those who still owe money on their cards owe less than they used to. According to TransUnion, the average consumer credit card balance as of March 31 st was just under $4,700, a ten-year low. That’s down 19% from 2009 levels. Overall, the sum of U.S. consumer debt — including home mortgages and home equity credit lines — fell almost 16% since the onset of the recent recession. This so-called “deleveraging,” most economists say, is either a reflexive response to the collapse of Wall Street and housing prices, or it’s a sea change in the spending habits of the American people. “Our analysis shows that consumers have made a concerted effort to pay down their credit cards during these uncertain economic times,” Ezra Becker, a TransUnion executive, recently told the ABA Banking Journal. This new discipline among consumers is forcing politicians, policymakers, economists, bankers, financial services executives and most Fortune 500 CEOs to sit up and take notice. Why? Put simply, when consumers borrow less they also spend less. And when they spend less, they consume less. Given that roughly 70% of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) relies on household consumption, when consumers reign in their borrowing, it spells near-term trouble for our economy, job creation, corporate profits and tax revenues. Think of the irony… American consumers — after years of excessive borrowing — finally buckle down, reduce their personal debt and improve their household balance sheets. Yet such responsible behavior turns out to be a serious drag on our nation’s economic engine. “Deleveraging is easier to say than do,” writes Alen Mattich, a senior reporter for Dow Jones Newswires. Much of what fueled economic growth in America and other developed countries over the past 20 years was consumer borrowing, he explains. So now, Mattich points out, not only have individuals ceased to lop on more and more debt, their priorities have shifted to paying off what they borrowed for yesterday’s consumption. Such behavior constitutes a praiseworthy fiscal fitness diet for consumers – but also places a serious damper on our economic growth. Take one example. In his 2010 book, The Age of Deleveraging , economist and Wall Street pundit A. Gary Shilling says many American companies — and hence their shareholders and employees — stand to pay the price of consumers’ newfound monetary pragmatism. “Leisure airline trips, ocean cruises, new household appliances and vehicles are expenditures consumers will postpone or avoid as the ongoing saving spree persists for years,” Shilling cautions. Dow Jones’s Mattich echoes Shilling’s foreboding. “It seems clear we’re only at the beginning of a very long, rocky road. Which investors will, like penitents, walk on their knees.” I genuinely wish there were an alternative for our country. But rebounding from any addiction and the excesses it fosters is never easy. Our economy may, indeed, be in for a painful period of deleveraging-driven restraint. But let there be no doubt that consumers have finally got it right It’s high time we pay down — and ideally pay off — our irresponsible debt, fortify our savings and re-inflate our retirement portfolios. Then, as proud owners of a pristine household balance sheet, we can once again purchase appliances, buy new cars and take luxury vacations. Only next time, we won’t be paying for these discretionary goods and services with someone else’s borrowed funds. Growth that is paid in full — rather than recklessly borrowed — will in time make our American economy infinitely stronger and far more durable. Next : In the second of three columns on the topic of consumer debt, I’ll discuss ways that credit card providers and retailers can lure back wary consumers and provide a fresh spark to America’s stagnant economy. And I’ll show you how you can become your own source of financing using a method that’s actually better than debt free. Update : Eliminating personal deficit spending is the first stage in my 5-step program that empowers each and every one of us to become effective citizen soldiers in the battle to fix our nation’s economic woes and political gridlock. To learn more, I recommend you read my August 2011 Bank On Yourself website Cover Story, “A Do-It-Yourself Fix For The Economy, Deficit, Social Security and Unemployment. ” New York Times bestselling author Pamela Yellen is the founder of www.BankOnYourselfNation.com , a website dedicated to helping people achieve lifetime financial security and self-reliance. As president of www.BankOnYourself.com , she’s helped hundreds of thousands grow their wealth safely and predictably.

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Don McNay: How Do You Get Credit Cards Out Of Your Life?

August 19, 2011

In my structured settlement business, clients come to me with large lump sums, perhaps received from an inheritance or a settlement from a lawsuit. I tell the ones with credit card debt, “I don’t offer any products that will pay you as much in interest as you are paying the credit card companies.” I get people to pay off their debts, cut up their cards, and use the money they were paying to the credit card companies for savings or possible investments. But, most people don’t have piles of cash lying around and aren’t counting on a big lump sum. Getting out of credit card debt is a slow process where you need to have a long-term goal. Dave Ramsey and I disagree on several topics, but we agree on the goal of jettisoning credit card debt. I have attended Ramsey’s live seminars and watched him explain his “snowball theory” for eliminating credit card debt. It works as follows: Ramsey says you should pay off your smallest credit card first. Until the balance is eliminated, pay only minimums on other debt while focusing on the one credit card. This creates a momentum in your plan. To quote Ramsey: “The math seems to lean more toward paying the highest interest debts first, but what I have learned is that personal finance is 20 percent head knowledge and 80 percent behavior. When you start knocking off the easier debts, you will start to see results and you will start to win in debt reduction.” I ran into a childhood friend at my mother’s funeral who later told me she was maxed out on several credit cards. She is a clerical worker who doesn’t make a lot of money. I told her about the snowball theory, and she followed it. She also cut back on impulse shopping. It took four years, but last year she e-mailed and told me she had paid off all the cards. Not only was it a great financial accomplishment, it dramatically boosted her self-esteem to know she could accomplish a seemingly impossible task. My friend faced up to her financial dilemma. A lot of people get overextended, fall behind on payments, and start getting calls from credit-card collection companies. If you have ever had a collection agency call you at work, or while a date is visiting your apartment (I’ve had both happen), it is a humbling and embarrassing experience. My credit card problems occurred before I had a mobile phone, but I would imagine getting a collection call on your cell phone with others around can’t be fun. People who are being hounded by collectors need to get familiar with the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act. It’s been around for a long time but is widely ignored by banks, collectors, and regulators. It provides consumers with real protections when used correctly. You can find a detailed booklet about the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act at www.ftc.gov/bcp/edu/pubs/consumer/credit/cre27.pdf Few people realize (and collectors will never tell you) that if they want no further contact with a collector, the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act gives them a way to make the calls and letters stop. Collectors cannot communicate with consumers in any way (other than litigation) if the consumer gives written notice that he wishes no further communication or refuses to pay the alleged debt. With or without written notice, collectors can only contact consumers by telephone between 8 a.m. and 9 p.m. local time. Collectors cannot call repeatedly or continuously. Consumers can prevent collectors from contacting them at work simply by telling them not to. The consumer does not have to send a letter. Collectors cannot contact consumers who are known to be represented by an attorney. Collectors can’t use deception, such as implying they are an attorney or law enforcement officer, to collect a debt. They can’t threaten arrest. They can’t threaten legal action if it is not actually contemplated and they can’t use abusive or profane language when speaking to a consumer. Collectors routinely ignore the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act. They realize that few consumers know the law and fewer will complain. They also realize that the Federal Trade Commission, especially in the years before the 2008 market crash, rarely enforced the law. I once had a collector (who was looking for a relative who had never lived in my city or household) violate almost every provision of the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act in a profane-laced rant. I documented the conversation in detail, filed a complaint with the Federal Trade Commission, and thought that such a clear-cut violation would get the agency’s attention. It didn’t. I got a form letter saying it would add my complaint to its files for statistical purposes. Despite my unhappiness with the enforcement of the law, knowing it and citing it to collectors can often blunt abusive collections practices. Ending a string of harassing phone calls gives consumers time to deal with debts in a rational and well-thought-out manner. After people get the creditors off their backs, they should sit down and devise a strategy for getting credit cards out of their lives. Don McNay, CLU, ChFC, MSFS, CSSC of Richmond Kentucky is an award-winning financial columnist. He is the author of the book, Wealth Without Wall Street: A Main Street Guide to Making Money, which will be released on September 20. McNay founded McNay Settlement Group, a structured settlement and financial consulting firm, in 1983, and Kentucky Guardianship Administrators LLC in 2000. McNay has Master’s Degrees from Vanderbilt and the American College and is in the Hall of Distinguished Alumni of Eastern Kentucky University. McNay is a Quarter Century member of the Million Dollar Round Table and has four professional designations in the financial services.

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Micah Hauptman: The Logic of Ponzi Finance

August 19, 2011

This post was co-authored by Dr. Eric Tymoigne and Micah Hauptman. When you think of Ponzi schemes, fraudsters like Bernie Madoff come to mind. However, Ponzi schemes are not always the result of a few crooks; they can also be a common practice used by society to create a short term economic growth spurt. But such a growth spurt is destined for failure. The mortgage finance industry and all that it affected — at the heart of the financial crisis — functioned as one such Ponzi scheme. The core of Ponzi finance is not fraud; it is a scheme that rests on making payments on a financial contract by refinancing or selling assets based on the expectation that those assets’ prices will rise indefinitely. But, in a Ponzi scheme, for asset prices to rise, there must be a continuing flow of new investors to boost demand. This financial scheme is not self-sustaining and when the flow of participation ends — or to continue the analogy, new suckers stop buying in, the system crashes. As the saying goes, “the bigger they are, the harder the fall,” the longer a Ponzi scheme lasts and the deeper its impact, the greater the fallout is when it crashes. This is because all of the unsound debt that accumulated when asset prices increased must be unwound; this can occur often painfully, as we have witnessed. Consequently, the temporary gains that are realized on the upside of a Ponzi scheme are wiped out in a flashflood on the downside. During the housing bubble, a massive Ponzi finance scheme temporarily improved homeownership. Everyone played a role: bankers, homeowners, politicians and regulators all chose to ignore reality and believe that borrowing based on expected increases in house values was legitimate. After all, “house prices always go up.” Under this financial smokescreen, the mortgage finance industry granted loans on the basis of rising home prices rather than capacity to pay based on creditworthiness and income. Mortgage originators assured borrowers that because house prices would rise in perpetuity, houses were safe investments that would increase homeowners’ equity. If borrowers were ever unable to pay their loans, they could merely refinance or sell their house at a profit. Everyone would win. As more and more homebuyers were enticed into the market, demand was artificially boosted and house prices were inflated. Although mortgage originators quickly exhausted the limited supply of qualified borrowers, that didn’t impede them. The money was just too good. They realized they could continue to generate new mortgage loans by becoming more creative with whom they loaned money to, and how those loans were configured. Households of all income levels were enticed to take so called “low-cost” mortgages, mortgages that required low initial payments, but ballooned to unaffordable levels after a few years. This practice affected prime and subprime borrowers alike. Bankers also figured out ways to lure current borrowers with fixed rate mortgages to switch to the “low-cost” varieties. These types of mortgages skyrocketed in the mid-2000s. While they constituted less than five percent of mortgage origination between 2000 and 2002, they exploded to over twenty percent between 2003 and 2006 (and were over twenty-five percent by 2005). While many of these mortgages were based on deliberate, seemingly well-informed choices by borrowers and lenders, they still contributed to the Ponzi finance scheme. When the low-cost mortgage ballooned, the borrower’s payments became unmanageable. Refinancing or selling were the only ways to escape the debt burdens, but these options were only viable when the housing market was growing. The mortgage finance Ponzi scheme was further aggravated by widespread predatory mortgage lending practices, in which “low-doc” or “no-doc” loans were approved, and borrowers’ income and ability to pay were not verified. The worst example was the “NINJA loans,” where an individual with No Income, No Job, and no Assets could miraculously qualify for a mortgage. Additionally, instances of fraud or “liar” loans grew, as mortgage brokers, appraisers, and borrowers misrepresented income, assets, and debts. The Ponzi mortgage finance disaster was fully in motion. The bubble burst and the flooding downside of the scheme began. Unable to pay inflated mortgages that cost more than their houses, borrowers could no longer refinance or sell to service their payments. Consequently, they defaulted in record numbers, the housing market crashed, and the Ponzi finance system ground to a screeching halt. Many people have suffered as a result of this Ponzi finance scheme. The temporary gains that were realized in the housing boom were indeed, only temporary. And we are currently dealing with the devastating effects of the system unwinding. We must repair the damage that was done and guarantee that another similar catastrophe does not occur. A return to stricter lending standards, a stronger enforcement system, and a restoration of properly placed incentives will go a long way toward preventing another Ponzi finance scam from wreaking havoc on our financial system. This post was co-authored by Dr. Eric Tymoigne and Micah Hauptman. Dr. Tymoigne is a Professor of Economics at Lewis and Clark College in Portland, Oregon, and Research Associate at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. For further reading, please visit the Levy Institute’s website at www.levyinstitute.org .

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Senator Welcomes News Of Apparent Standard & Poor’s Investigation

August 19, 2011

NEW YORK — As the financial world absorbs news that the federal government is apparently investigating potential misbehavior at Standard & Poor’s, the reported probe lends credence to findings of a Senate panel, which said the credit rating agency helped cause the financial crisis. The Department of Justice is looking into potential conflicts of interest at S&P, which gave top seals of approval to mortgage securities that later turned out to be toxic, the New York Times reported Thursday . S&P and its competitor Moody’s Investors Service provided “the most immediate trigger” to the financial crisis, said an April report from a Senate panel . News of this investigation is welcome, said Sen. Carl Levin, who chairs the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, which issued the report. “The hearings held by the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations and our subsequent report documented reckless actions and significant conflicts of interest on the part of the credit rating agencies that contributed to the financial crisis,” Levin said in a statement emailed by a spokesman. “It is totally appropriate for U.S. law enforcement agencies to review that sad record,” he added. The major credit rating agencies repeatedly sold their top ratings to investment bank clients in order to win favor with those clients and gain market share, the Senate panel alleged in April. These companies are paid by banks to rate the products the banks churn out. The Justice Department is looking at cases in which S&P analysts wanted to grant a low rating, but were overruled by others at the company, the New York Times reported. That idea is consistent with the Senate report, which said the rating process was tainted by conflicts of interest , alleging that rating companies provided rosy assessments in order to keep clients happy. Complicated products like collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, got top-flight ratings that the agencies later slashed en masse as the housing market collapsed. A spokesman for S&P said at the time of the Senate report that the company has worked to improve the independence of its ratings since the financial crisis. The Senate panel offered email evidence to back up its allegations of conflicts of interest. “We are meeting with your group this week to discuss adjusting criteria for rating CDOs of real estate assets this week,” reads a 2004 email from an S&P manager, “because of the ongoing threat of losing deals.” “I would rather not drop S&P from the upcoming deal,” a Nomura investment banker warned in 2005, when it looked like the bank wouldn’t get the high rating it wanted. While Levin applauded the reported Department of Justice investigation, some analysts said it misses the point. These experts lamented on Thursday that the government wasn’t taking tougher action against other financial actors, which the Senate panel said worked with the rating agencies to inflate the housing bubble that ultimately ravaged the economy. “The rating agencies were the supporting actors. They weren’t the stars,” said Janet Tavakoli, president of the Chicago-based consulting firm Tavakoli Structured Finance. Tavakoli is a long-time critic of the rating agencies, and recently issued a report saying those companies did not deserve a designation bestowed by the government that gives their ratings special status. “If these people are used as scapegoats, then it becomes part of an ongoing cover-up,” she added. “The key drivers of this whole mess were the banks that supplied the money train to keep this going.” Ann Rutledge, founding principal of the structured credit consulting firm R&R Consulting, said the economy’s most fundamental problems have not been solved. “If we don’t have a system for channeling capital appropriately to productive uses,” she said, “then lawsuits don’t matter.”

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Stubborn Analysts May Be Driving Markets Down: Study

August 17, 2011

Financial analysts don’t just predict market crises — they may actually make them worse, according to recently published research from Stanford University. The study looked at why analysts stick to “extreme” forecasts on such things as earnings, even after they’re wrong, and suggests their stubbornness can affect markets.

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Ted Kaufman: Will the Mortgage Mess Meet Too Big To Fail?

August 15, 2011

Ever since the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act passed last year, there has been a running debate about the Resolution Authority in the bill. Would it actually prevent another taxpayer bailout of a bank or banks to avoid a financial meltdown? I believe there is a real possibility that the present mortgage mess could trigger such a test. The Congressional Oversight Panel of the TARP, which I chaired until it ceased operations earlier this year, held a number of hearings and issued numerous reports on problems within the federal government’s Home Affordable Modification Program. I came to suspect that the entire system in place to bundle and sell mortgages through securitization might be fatally flawed. When you bought a new home before the 1960s, you negotiated with a lender for a mortgage that was then filed at the county property office. In most places, by law, any time ownership of that mortgage changed hands, the change had to be filed at the county property office. Beginning in the 60s but becoming the norm in the 90s, banks developed a system that combined many individual mortgages into a security that was then sold to investors. This securitization led to a dramatic increase in the rate at which ownership of mortgages changed hands. In order to avoid having to record repeated changes in ownership of millions of mortgages at thousands of county property offices, major banks devised a workaround: the Mortgage Electronic Registration System. MERS, which was incorporated in Delaware in 1995, was supposed to fix the problems inherent in the securitization process. It didn’t. In April of this year, most of the large housing lenders, including Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citibank, settled a complaint brought by the Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Office of Thrift Supervision related to a range of shoddy practices in the mortgage market. The lenders committed to pay to correct major problems with their foreclosure procedures. The settlement revealed many problems, including banks’ practice of filing foreclosure affidavits in court in which their employees claimed they had personal knowledge of facts that they did not know to be true. Since then other problems have surfaced. A number of courts around the country have questioned whether MERS has the legal right to transfer mortgages. It seems that every day more information comes to light demonstrating that the management failures identified in the April settlement were widespread. It now looks like MERS and the system set up to legalize securitization was jerrybuilt at best. Mortgages and other documents have been lost or destroyed or, in some cases, were never legally signed in the first place. Files have disappeared. Evidence of falsified statements is pervasive. Sheila Bair, until recently head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, said in testimony before congress last December said that “while the legal challenges under the representations and warranties trust requirements remain in their early stages, they could, if successful, result in the ‘putback’ of large volumes of defaulted mortgages from securitization trusts to the originating institutions.” Those court rulings are no longer in their “early stages,” and the ultimate cost to the banks could be staggering. The major banks are now in settlement negotiations with the 50 states’ attorneys general. Numbers in the billions are being discussed. However, Attorneys General Eric Schneiderman of New York and Beau Biden of Delaware, recently joined by Martha Coakley of Massachusetts, have said that any settlement must allow their investigations to continue so that all evidence of wrongdoing comes to light. This week AG Schneiderman moved to stop a settlement between Bank of New York Mellon and Bank of America, accusing Bank of New York Mellon of fraud in its role as trustee overseeing mortgage investment pools for investors. If all these investigations disclose that the whole mortgage system is as rife with mistakes, abuses, and fraudulent activity as many observers now suspect, hundreds of billions may be at stake. This could put several banks in a very precarious situation and severely test the Resolution Authority of Dodd-Frank. Could the financial system survive the failure of one or more megabanks or would the government once again have to use taxpayer finds to bail them out? When I was in the Senate, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown and I fought to include in Dodd-Frank an amendment that would have placed capital requirements and liability limitations on the megabanks. That amendment, which failed to pass, would have ensured that no U.S. financial institution was too big to fail. It is time for all the regulators to commit to increasing capital requirements on the megabanks, and reducing their size. A good first step would be to unwind the mergers made by the megabanks during the financial crisis. Hopefully, the mortgage mess will not cause a test of Too Big To Fail, but after all that Americans have endured these past three years they deserve a lot more than hope from their government.

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Strong End To Trading After Torrid Week On The Markets

August 13, 2011

PRESS ASSOCIATION — A strong finish to trading in London and New York has capped the end of a turbulent week for the world’s stock markets. New York’s benchmark Dow Jones closed 1.1% higher on Friday mirroring a revival elsewhere as as US retail sales came in better than expected and European markets reacted favourably to the short-selling ban. The FTSE 100 Index in London closed up 3%, or 157 points, at 5320, with markets in Europe also higher. The CAC-40 in Paris jumped was 4 European markets started to recover after it was confirmed that French president Nicolas Sarkozy and German chancellor Angela Merkel would meet next Tuesday to discuss the eurozone’s financial problems. European authorities took further action to bolster financial markets by banning short-selling of financial stocks in France, Italy, Spain and Belgium for 15 days. Markets around the world have endured wild swings all this week sparked by concerns over the health of the US economy, sovereign debt fears and rumours over the financial position of several of France’s leading banks, with Societe General and BNP Paribas especially singled out. Christian Noyer, the head of France’s central bank, was forced to state the rumours were “unfounded” and that the country’s financial institutions were sound. SocGen chief Frederic Oudea added the rumours were totally baseless and clients could have confidence in the bank. Worries about the health of French banks unsettled share prices of UK banks, with fears over the knock-on impact hitting Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland and HSBC. London’s blue chips, overall, have lost £145 billion in value over the past two weeks even after Friday’s rise. In the US the S&P 500 closed 0.5. US stocks have been very volatile, with the Dow Jones seeing swings of between 4 on a daily basis throughout the week. All three major US stock indexes are more than 10% down from their highs in April.

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Retail Sales Rise By Most In Four Months

August 12, 2011

WASHINGTON — Consumers spent more on autos, furniture, clothing and gas in July, pushing up retail sales by the largest amount in four months. The gain signaled that Americans are a little more confident in the economy and could helped dispel fears that the country is headed for another recession. Retail sales rose 0.5 percent last month, the Commerce Department said Friday. It was the best showing since March. The government also revised sales higher in the previous two months. Even after excluding sales at gas stations, which were influenced by an increase in gas prices, sales rose 0.3 percent last month. The better-than-expected retail sales report is the second strong signal on the economy in as many days. Stocks rose in early trading. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 120 points. On Thursday, the Dow closed up 423 points for the day after the government said the number of people applying for unemployment benefits dropped below 400,000 for the first time since early April. “Don’t write off the American consumer or economy just yet,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. “The solid July retail sales report should help allay recession fears.” A batch of poor data and a gloomy outlook from the Federal Reserve this week have made investors more nervous that the economy could fall back into a recession. Stock markets have tumbled in recent weeks. The Dow has lost more than 1,400 points, or more than 11 percent, since July 22. But data for July suggest the economy may be in better shape than some had feared. Layoffs are down, retail sales are up and gas prices are falling. Employers added 117,000 net jobs last month. That’s not enough to significantly lower the unemployment rate, but it was a notable improvement after two dismal months of hiring. “The fact that retail sales held up over the last few months even though the labor market was foundering is a positive economic development,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank. “However, the true test will be to see if consumer activity held up in the face of recent financial market gyrations and slumping economic confidence. So the August data will be of much greater significance.” In a separate report, the Commerce Department said that businesses added to their stockpiles for an 18th straight month in June. But the 0.3 percent rise in business inventories was the smallest gain in 13 months. Total business sales rose 0.4 percent after a 0.1 percent drop in May. The rebound in sales should help to bolster shaky business sentiment and spur further inventory restocking in coming months. The retail sales report is the government’s first read on consumer spending for the July-September quarter. Consumer spending is always closely watched because it accounts for 70 percent of economic growth. But in June, consumers cut spending for the first time in 20 months, a troubling sign. Retail sales, which don’t include spending on services, have been slowing since February. For July, auto sales rose 0.4 percent after a 0.7 percent gain in June. Demand for cars has been low this year, and many dealers have also had a hard time stocking popular models because of supply chain disruptions stemming from the Japan crisis. Gasoline sales rose 1.6 percent. The increase was largely because of the rise in gas prices that have since been reversed. Purchases of furniture rose 0.5 percent, electronics store sales increased 1.4 percent, and sales at specialty clothing stores climbed 0.5 percent. Sales at department stores fell 0.8 percent in July. Economists had expected them to show a rise following reports from big retailers that they had a decent start to the back-to-school shopping season. Sales at a broader category of general merchandise stores, which includes department stores and big retailers such as Wal-Mart, were flat in July following a 0.5 percent rise in June. Many retailers had reported last week that back-to-school promotions had helped boost their sales in July. Target, Macy’s and luxury chain Saks all reported gains that beat Wall Street expectations. But retailers are worried that consumers may be thrifty when shopping this summer, sticking with basic necessities and holding out for sales. That’s a popular strategy in tighter economies, but one that hurts stores’ profits. High unemployment and a spike in gas prices have forced many consumers to be more cautious about spending. Their hesitation was a major reason the economy grew a meager 0.8 percent in the first six months of the year, the weakest growth since the recession officially ended. Many economists, including Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, had thought the economic slowdown was mostly because of temporary factors, such as high gas prices and the parts shortage out of Japan. But this week the Fed acknowledged that the economy’s problems are deeper. Its statement suggested growth could be dismal for at least two more years. As a result, the Fed took the unprecedented step of pledging to keep a key interest rate it controls at a record low near zero at least through mid-2013. Private economists have been busy marking down their own forecasts. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase said they expect the just 1.5 percent growth in the July-September quarter, a full percentage point lower than their previous forecast.

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U.S. Chamber Of Commerce Battles Anti-Bribery Statute

August 12, 2011

WASHINGTON — More than three decades after the United States Congress passed the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act — striking a major blow against international corruption by criminalizing bribes to foreign officials — the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is trying to carve out some major exceptions in the law to prevent prosecutors from enforcing it too aggressively. The move by the increasingly activist Chamber has led critics to fear there may be no checks left on the corporate lobby’s ambition — or its influence. Not only is the Chamber taking on something as seemingly unassailable as an anti-bribery law, but it’s doing so just as the movement the FCPA launched is finally taking hold across the globe, corruption fighters say. And without much organized opposition — at least so far — the Chamber’s army of lobbyists is making serious headway in Congress, even among Democrats. The Chamber is not overtly taking a pro-bribery position. Rather, its lobbying blitz couches the proposed changes as tune-ups, a few safeguards needed to protect against overzealous prosecutors. “Our proposals are aimed at preserving existing law enforcement tools so that the government can pursue the bad actors while ensuring that the good actors have clarity and more certainty under the law, which is clearly lacking today,” said Harold Kim, a senior vice president at the Chamber’s Institute for Legal Reform, in a statement to The Huffington Post. But the Chamber’s list of demands boils down to this: It wants four loopholes that companies could use to escape criminal liability — and it wants the government to make a clearer demarcation between foreign officials they are not allowed to bribe and those they are. The interactive chart below lists the business lobby’s five chief grievances and its proposed changes — along with rebuttals from supporters of the law, and a simple potential overall solution. Graphic by Chris Spurlock “The proposals by the Chamber are quite dramatic,” said Harvard Law School professor David Kennedy, who specializes in international law. “Although presented as modest legislative clarifications, the Chamber’s proposals would seriously undermine the enforcement efforts and scale back criminal liability under the FCPA.” “I have a hard time figuring out how they justify a push on this law that essentially amounts to, ‘We want to make it easier to bribe,’” said Per Olstad, the executive director of Chamberwatch, a labor-backed group. “It’s shocking that an organization purporting to represent a mainstream business view would take that position.” The Chamber’s arguments and proposals were summed up in a 28-page paper released in October by its legal arm, entitled ” Restoring Balance .” Some observers have pointed out that the proposed amendments to the FCPA also target basic concepts key to establishing other forms of corporate liability, including environmental liability, tax liability, product liability and liability for racketeering, discrimination and so on. “I think what they’re really trying to do is push reform that will make it harder for anyone to hold business accountable, period,” Olstad said. “It could be that the FCPA just seems an easy first target,” said Kennedy. The Chamber, for its part, insists that it respects the spirit of the anti-bribery law. “Allegations that the Chamber is trying to gut the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act are completely false,” Kim said. “The FCPA is a valuable law that helps reduce corruption in markets and advances the cause of free enterprise.” GROWING ENFORCEMENT, HERE AND ABROAD When the Chamber talks about restoring balance, it is referring to what it describes as an asymmetrical relationship that has recently developed between gung-ho, unaccountable prosecutors on the one hand and beleaguered corporations on the other. Its principal evidence is the dramatic rise in recent years in the number of criminal prosecutions under the FCPA. That increase in prosecutions has indeed been dramatic. Although enacted in 1977, the FCPA was virtually unenforced for decades. The pace of enforcement only picked up in 2007, as part of the George W. Bush administration’s anti-kleptocracy initiative , at which point the number of criminal enforcement actions each year rose into double digits for the first time. It then shot up again, to 48, in 2010. Graphic by Chris Spurlock But officials say even 48 enforcement actions per year is hardly a large number relative to the size of the problem. “Foreign corruption remains a problem of significant magnitude,” Greg Andres, deputy assistant attorney general in the Justice Department’s criminal division, told a congressional committee in June. He cited a World Bank estimate based on data from 2001 and 2002 that more than $1 trillion is paid in bribes each year. At the time, those bribes constituted roughly 3 percent of the world economy. Treating foreign bribes as criminal was a radical move in the 1970s — up until then, “you could still deduct them as business expenses,” said Sarah Pray, a policy analyst at the George Soros-funded Open Society Foundations. But it’s now common practice across the globe. “For three decades, the United States has been a leader in the fight against corruption and the FCPA was in many ways the opening play,” said Kennedy, the Harvard law professor. “It has led to a quite remarkable network of measures across the world.” In 1999, the Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development established legally binding standards that criminalize bribery of foreign officials. Those standards have been formally adopted by all 34 OECD member countries as well as Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria and South Africa. Just last month, the United Kingdom began enforcing its new Bribery Act , commonly referred to as ” the FCPA on steroids .” For instance, the U.K. act — which applies to any company that has a U.K. office, employs U.K. citizens or does business with the U.K. — prohibits the use of “facilitation payments,” small outlays to speed such activities as obtaining a permit, unloading cargo or scheduling an inspection. Those are actually legal under the FCPA. China and Russia also both criminalized foreign bribery for the first time earlier this year. Among the multitude of anti-corruption cases now flooding the courts in China: A judge in June sentenced a China Mobile executive to death for his minor role on the receiving end of the massive Siemens bribery scandal . By contrast, U.S. and European officials in 2008 settled all their criminal charges against the German-based engineering giant, which had paid out some $1.4 billion in bribes to officials in 10 countries, for a record-setting $1.6 billion . Nobody even went to jail. Kennedy said he thinks it is precisely because the rest of the world has made such dramatic steps forward in criminalizing bribery that the U.S. government started prosecuting more cases. “The Department of Justice — after many years, I think, of waiting for there to be a level playing field — has begun the kind of compliance-focused enforcement activity that has been effective in many other contexts,” he said. “My sense is that it’s appropriate.” THE EVIDENCE One of the oddest parts of the Chamber’s position is that even the cases it cites as evidence don’t necessarily support its argument, including the two referenced in its report as examples of prosecutorial overreach. There’s the case of Fredric Bourke, who was convicted in 2009 of conspiring to violate the FCPA and lying to the FBI. Prosecutors argued that Bourke “was a knowing participant in a scheme to bribe senior government officials in Azerbaijan with several hundred million dollars in shares of stock, cash, and other gifts” — what the Chamber report describes as “certain investments he made with a business partner” — to gain exclusive control of the state’s oil company. Though Bourke insisted he didn’t know his partner was paying bribes, the jury unanimously agreed with the prosecution that there was no way he could not have known and found him guilty. The Chamber cites the case as an example of DOJ’s “expansive reading” of the FCPA. Then there’s the example of what the Chamber calls DOJ’s “aggressive pursuit of BAE Systems,” the giant defense contractor. The Chamber acknowledges that BAE “fail[ed] to disclose hundreds of millions of dollars in commission payments related to arms sales.” In fact, the investigation determined that BAE, using American banks , made up to $2 billion in secret payments to the former Saudi Arabian ambassador to the United States, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, for years after securing an enormous arms deal. The Chamber cites this as an example of overzealous prosecution because “the questionable payments underlying the FCPA allegations appear to have been made almost entirely outside the United States.” The Chamber also takes issue with the Justice Department’s judgment that a company acquiring a firm that has violated the FCPA can be criminally liable for the acquired company’s conduct if it didn’t undertake rigorous due diligence. The Chamber report cites two cases in making the argument against “successor liability.” One case involves Alliance One, an American tobacco company formed in 2005 by the merger of Dimon Incorporated and Standard Commercial Corporation. Employees and subsidiaries of both original companies had paid bribes to foreign officials. After the merger, the Justice Department brought criminal charges against Alliance One. It ultimately accepted guilty pleas from two foreign subsidiaries and agreed not to prosecute the parent company — but the Chamber argues that Alliance One shouldn’t have been charged in the first place. The other involves Snamprogetti, a Dutch subsidiary of a company called Eni, which engaged in a massive, decade-long scheme to bribe Nigerian officials for construction contracts worth $6 billion. In 2006, while the investigation was underway, Eni sold Snamprogetti to a company called Saipem. The Justice Department last summer agreed to a settlement in which Eni and Saipem together paid a $240 million fine. The Chamber report says Saipem shouldn’t have been held liable at all, even though it knew the company it was buying was hip-deep in bribery allegations. And then there are the Chamber’s poster children for its campaign against an overly broad definition of a foreign official: Control Components, Inc., which pleaded guilty to paying almost $5 million in bribes to officials of various foreign state-owned companies, including China Petroleum Materials and Equipment Corp., PetroChina, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power and the National Petroleum Construction Company of the United Arab Emirates. Baker Hughes, which pleaded guilty to paying some $4.1 million in bribes to an official of Kazakhoil, Kazakhstan’s state-owned oil company, to win a major oil field services contract. Lucent Technologies, which admitted to spending more than $1.3 million on pre-sale trips, including sightseeing trips, for the heads of Chinese state-owned telecommunications companies and provincial telecommunications subsidiaries. Other, post-sale “factory inspection” trips “consisted primarily or entirely of sightseeing to locations such as Disneyland, Universal Studios, the Grand Canyon, and in cities such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Washington, D.C., and New York City, and typically lasted 14 days each and cost between $25,000 and $55,000 per trip.” And KBR (then a subsidiary of Halliburton), which participated with Snamprogetti in the decade-long Nigerian bribery scheme mentioned above. According to the Department of Justice, the companies paid out about $182 million in bribes, and a KBR vice president “met with successive holders of a top-level office in the executive branch of the Nigerian government to ask the office holders to designate a representative with whom the joint venture should negotiate the bribes to Nigerian government officials.” These are evidently the best cases the Chamber could find to illustrate the outrageous overreach of the Justice Department. (A full list of the department’s enforcement actions from 1998 to 2010 can be found here .) EIGHT VERSUS THE MAINSTREAM “There’s no clear business rationale for why the Chamber would be trying to weaken the FCPA,” said Chamberwatch’s Olstad. His group, however, has compiled information on eight Chamber-associated companies that collectively have paid nearly a billion dollars in fines or to settle FCPA allegations. “And you start to think, there’s your motivation,” he said. (See list, below.) Graphic by Jake Bialer. Styling from Smashing Magazine . That doesn’t include many more Chamber members that are under investigation. In just the last few weeks, the Wall Street Journal reported, Deere & Co. (whose vice president sits on the Chamber’s board of directors ) and major Chamber donor Goldman Sachs are being investigated for possible FCPA violations. Despite the visions of homespun small business typically associated with the name “Chamber of Commerce”, the U.S. Chamber is dominated by large multinationals. According to the group’s public tax filings for 2009 , 83 percent of its funding came from contributions of $100,000 or more. The Chamber, which can accept unlimited secret contributions from corporate interests, has taken a leading role in fighting a wide range of federal regulations in the past decade, which Olstad and others have attributed to current CEO Tom Donohue . “It was never exactly a voice of progressive reform,” Olstad said. But now, he said, the Chamber is fundamentally a weapon against the government, aimed and fired by some of its biggest funders who have seen the FCPA from the wrong end. Chamber spokesman Michael LePage denied there was a relationship between the Chamber’s advocacy and those eight companies. “We advocate for the broader business community, not individual companies,” LePage said in an email. He added, “As a general policy, we don’t comment on our membership.” But the Chamber’s attitude toward the FCPA does not appear to be a broadly-held view in the business community — it’s not even a mainstream view among executives at major corporations. The Wall Street Journal reported in June that a KPMG poll of 214 corporate executives with anti-corruption responsibilities showed that “only 39% believed anti-corruption laws had hurt them competitively, and fewer than 20% thought enforcement of such laws was ‘excessive.’” Indeed, some companies praise the FCPA. Ask Bill O’Rourke, a vice president at Alcoa, the giant, Pittsburgh-based multinational producer of aluminum, to explain the Chamber’s motivation in changing the law, and he’s dumbfounded. “I can’t help you with that. I just don’t understand,” he said. “I support the general provision and I think it’s in line with the values of the company,” he said of the FCPA. “It’s the right thing to do. I’m a firm believer that the companies that do things right are successful in the long run.” O’Rourke has had personal experience resisting corruption. He was the president of Alcoa Russia from 2005 to 2008. “I saw bureaucracy and corruption at levels that were outstanding,” he said. He initially found it impossible to spend his capital budget, because he wasn’t willing to make payoffs. “The supply chain doesn’t move whenever that doesn’t happen,” he said. But he wouldn’t cave. “In the long run, things finally started moving and people understood that Alcoa doesn’t do business that way,” O’Rourke said. “And I think we helped other companies in that process, as well, be able to stand up against it.” There’s another reason why the Chamber and some of its member companies may be so motivated to amend the FCPA. The Securities and Exchange Commission in May approved final rules for a provision in last year’s Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation that will make it very lucrative for insiders to alert regulators about wrongdoing within their companies. Whistleblowers will be entitled to receive up to 30 percent of the money the government recovers. The whistleblower provision goes into effect Friday. The lawyers have been lining up for weeks . “You worry about [FCPA prosecution] now more than ever, because of Dodd-Frank, which has included the financial reward for whistleblowing,” said Stephen G. Huggard, a partner at the law firm of Edwards Angell Palmer & Dodge in Boston who does criminal defense work for American multinational companies. Even an investigation into possible violations of the FCPA can be tremendously onerous to companies, Huggard said. “It’s absolutely part of the concern” over the FCPA, Huggard said. “Now you have to worry about someone who’s going to drop a dime on you, because they think they’re going to get rich off it.” At the very least, it’s a good bet that the SEC and the Justice Department could soon be hearing about a lot of misconduct they haven’t before. SETTLING FOR WHAT? One of the Chamber’s major beefs with the FCPA is that prosecutors are able to overreach due to the lack of judicial oversight — specifically, the lack of judicial precedent establishing how the law should be interpreted. That lack of precedent is a function of two major factors: There have been relatively few cases prosecuted, and defendants routinely choose to settle or plead guilty before trial. At a House Judiciary subcommittee hearing in June, Michael Mukasey — a former George W. Bush administration attorney general — made the second factor sound sinister. “By negotiating resolutions in many cases before an indictment or enforcement action is filed, the agencies effectively control the disposition of the FCPA cases they initiate and impose their own extremely broad interpretation of the FCPA’s key provisions,” said Mukasey, now a partner in the law firm of Debevoise & Plimpton. But the preponderance of settlements is not necessarily a danger sign, said Kennedy, the Harvard law professor. “As in every other area, DOJ enforcement here operates in the shadow of judicial review,” he said. “It’s always open to defendants to take any administrative overreaching that they see in a case to court.” Kennedy added: “This is not an environment in which corporations are generally loath to litigate when their interests are at stake.” Kennedy said he would interpret the relative lack of case law as evidence that the defendants recognize that the department is interpreting the FCPA in a way consistent with other, similar laws. And that lack of case law may soon be a thing of the past. According to a midyear update from the law firm Gibson Dunn, which meticulously tracks FCPA enforcement activity, some corporate defendants are, for the first time, going to trial. As Reuters blogger Alison Frankel put it, ” FCPA trials are the new black .” (The courtroom action has also, at least temporarily, slowed the unprecedented pace of prosecutions.) In each of the first two trials, judges upheld DOJ’s interpretations of the FCPA. The first trial led to the first criminal corporate conviction under the FCPA, but the second one — the result of a multi-year sting operation — raised serious questions of entrapment and was ended in a mistrial in July. Mukasey says many defendants have settled rather than gone to trial because “companies are rarely positioned to litigate an FCPA enforcement action to its conclusion or even risk indictment with consequent debarment in some industries.” “The possibility of substantial prison time for individual defendants has led most to negotiate pleas of guilty,” he added. Another view holds that settling the cases allows corporate executives to pay fines rather than serve jail time, effectively buying their way out of jail with shareholder money. Former Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) made a similar argument at a Nov. 30 Senate hearing . “Fines are added to the cost of doing business, [and] end up being paid by the shareholders,” Specter said. “Criminal conduct is individual. Nobody likes to pay fines but [the money paid] doesn’t amount to a whole lot in the context of what is going on here.” For example, executives at Tyson International who were thoroughly implicated in a Mexican bribery scandal were able to get off scot-free in return for paying a little over $5 million in fines . And while Mukasey says corporate executives fear debarment — the excluding of a company from contracting with the federal government — that penalty has not once been imposed for an FCPA conviction, settlement or indictment. Given the amounts of money involved, such a threat could be hugely motivating. But as good-government groups have long complained , the government only rarely employs it. THE PROSPECTS IN CONGRESS The U.S. Chamber pretty much has the Republican congressional vote locked up, partly because of their shared worldview, and partly because the GOP is increasingly dependent on the group’s ability to use its funds to hammer Democratic opponents with negative TV ads in swing states. So when it comes to passing a few amendments to the FCPA, all the Chamber really needs is a few key Democratic votes in the Senate. And so far, the business lobby — and its high-priced talent — have been completely dominating the debate among both parties. The headliner for the Chamber at the Nov. 30 Senate hearing was Andrew Weissmann , a partner at the law firm of Jenner & Block in New York who, in a previous life as a prosecutor, led the Department of Justice’s Enron Task Force. He was also the co-author of the Chamber’s Restoring Balance report. Weissmann decried the “recent dramatic increase in FCPA enforcement” which, he said, “coupled with the lack of judicial oversight, has created significant uncertainty among the American business community about the scope of the statute.” He charged that some enforcement actions were “not commensurate with the original goals of the FCPA.” And he said the changes proposed by the Chamber would “help the statute become more equitable.” At another Senate hearing a few months later, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) announced that she and Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) were “working on some potential legislative changes to update that statute.” Klobuchar even echoed the Chamber’s talking points about FCPA investigations “wreaking havoc” on businesses, and she gravely hypothesized a scenario in which giving a Chinese nurse cab fare back from a medical seminar would spark “a major investigation.” At the House Judiciary subcommittee hearing in June, even the expert called by the ranking Democrat on the committee testified in favor of amending the FCPA. It was left to one Democrat on the panel, Rep. John Conyers (D-Mich.) to cross-examine his party’s own witness. Conyers demanded that the witness — representing the National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers — provide him with a single example to support her contention that FCPA prosecutions were treating minor infractions as crimes. She couldn’t. “There have been 140 cases in 10 years,” Conyers said. “Is 14 cases a year over-prosecution to you?” Nevertheless, even Conyers indicated he might back two of the Chamber’s five major proposals: one that would clarify who qualifies as a foreign official, and another to exempt companies with strong compliance programs from criminal liability. Rep. James Sensenbrenner, the Wisconsin Republican who chaired the panel, announced at that hearing that he would introduce a bill that would “bring this law up to date” and prevent it from being enforced in a “vague and impenetrable manner.” His proposed bill is expected to emerge sometime in the fall and to closely follow the Chamber’s proposal. NOT OVER YET Despite the overwhelming advantage the Chamber seems to hold in Congress, however, ChamberWatch’s Olstad hasn’t given up. “People haven’t pushed back too much yet because it just isn’t out there enough. There’s no actual introduced bill,” he said. “I do think that once people do start to take a look at what the Chamber is actually outlining, it isn’t going to answer,” Olstad added. “It’s just too clear that this is about making it easier to bribe.” Supporters of the current FCPA say there are several reasons why the Chamber’s arguments have been carrying the day in Congress so far. “They’ve really only heard one side of the argument,” said Heather A. Lowe, lobbyist for Global Financial Integrity, a group funded by Scandinavian governments and U.S. philanthropies that works against illicit capital flight from developing countries. The Chamber has two huge advantages going into any fight. It has a massive war chest — its $132 million lobbying budget for 2010, even without accounting for the tens of millions it spent on campaign-related advertising, still dwarfs any other. And it has incredible name recognition. “I think that there are plenty of congressional offices on both sides of the aisle who, because it’s the Chamber, will just assume that it’s kind of a mainstream business perspective. So they won’t look too hard at what the actual ramifications of the Chamber’s suggestion actually are,” said Olstad. “They use the two buzzwords that, without substantiation, still work on members of Congress,” said Pray: “Jobs and China.” But both of those lines of argument are specious, she said. “How does this actually hurt U.S. jobs?” she asked. There’s no hard evidence to support that view, she said. And she noted that of the 10 biggest fines levied under the FCPA, eight were actually assessed on foreign companies. The argument that the Chinese might end up with some advantage because of a strict U.S. anti-bribery position has some basis. Just as recently as 2009, for instance, a Chinese mining firm allegedly paid $30 million in bribes to an Afghan minister to pave the way for a gigantic copper mining operation the Chinese are building in a Taliban stronghold in the mountains south of Kabul. But it doesn’t logically follow that the U.S. should be more competitive in that arena. Meanwhile, the Chamber’s talking points are replete with stories about companies losing business because they’re afraid to do simple, obviously non-criminal things — like buy a Chinese nurse cab fare — for fear of running afoul of U.S. prosecutors. “They’re shopping absurd scenarios,” Pray said. “They’re talking about a cup of coffee or a taxi ride, when it’s really suitcases of cash and jumbo jets.” “The Department of Justice is not going after the small stuff,” Lowe said. “They’re going after systemic bribery.” There were stirrings of pushback at that House hearing in June. Conyers took on the notion that corporations need better guidance about just how much bribery it takes to break the law: “Corporations have more lawyers than anybody else,” he said. “What do they need to know, how low the crime’s got to be before it’s prosecutable? … Nobody’s prosecuting people for how many drinks or a meal that you bought them or gave them a ride.” And Andres, the Justice Department official, tried to explain why prosecutors oppose establishing a clear lower limit. “The Department of Justice has never prosecuted somebody for giving a cup of coffee to a foreign official, a martini, two martinis, a lunch, a taxi ride or anything like that,” he said. But at the same time, he noted, “I think that both the Department of Justice and the government need to be clear that all bribery, just as in domestic bribery, is inappropriate. So I don’t think it’s appropriate to have an exception for a smaller bribe.” Andres raised the possibility that certain changes to the statute could “send a message that we were sanctioning some type of bribery” — or could create exploitable loopholes. “If companies aren’t paying bribes,” he said, “they have nothing to fear with respect to enforcement.” ************************* Dan Froomkin is senior Washington correspondent for The Huffington Post. You can send him an email , bookmark his page ; subscribe to his RSS feed , follow him on Twitter , friend him on Facebook , and/or become a fan and get email alerts when he writes.

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Brian Hamilton: We May Be Out of the Woods: Banks Are Lending Again

August 11, 2011

Commercial and industrial loan volume in the U.S. fell significantly — by 23 percent — between October 2008 and October 2010. Any new loans that were made during this period were offset by loans coming to maturity or loans that were charged-off (declared uncollectible). This drop in volume is directly attributable to the effects of the recession, when the economy had compounded decreases in GDP. The repercussions of this lending reduction on privately held companies have been significant. Small businesses, which exclude the larger private companies in the US, provide approximately 50 percent of private sector GDP and up to 65 percent of new jobs. The contribution of privately held companies more generally is even higher. Without ready access to capital, it is impossible for these companies to hire people and expand their businesses. It looks as if the banking industry may be coming out of the woods. Hopefully, this means privately held companies will be able to start borrowing again. During the last eight months (since loan volume bottomed out in October 2010), commercial and industrial loan volume has increased by 5 percent. This growth can only be attributed to new loans exceeding maturities or write-offs. And, while this does not return the economy to pre-recessionary lending levels, it is a positive trend nonetheless. This dataset matches up consistently with several other positive trends: GDP continues to grow. Looking at the past year: real GDP grew by 2.6 percent in Q3 2010, 3.1 percent Q4 2010, .4 percent in Q1 2011, and now 1.3 in Q2 2011. Although the real growth is not outstanding, it is not bad especially considering that Washington seems unable to make consistent policies, which businesses must account for when planning for the future. Private company revenue continues to rebound. After significant declines in 2009 when privately held companies’ revenue fell by almost 6 percent across all industries, revenue has grown for the last 18 months. Aggregately for all private industries, revenue grew by 4 percent in 2010 and more than 6 percent thus far in 2011. In short, private companies are rebounding, at least as of now. (Private company data provided by Sageworks, a financial information company that analyzes privately held firms. Data was collected on July 28, 2011.) There can be no doubt that there are significant events and factors within and outside of our control, which may throw a monkey wrench at the privately held companies’ prospects for growth (namely, the deficit and tax policy). But, it seems as if at least the lending environment is improving, which bodes well for businesses that need capital.

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Gerald P. O’Driscoll, Jr.: The Fed Surprises

August 11, 2011

The August 9th meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee — the policymaking arm of the Fed — was widely expected to be largely uneventful. It was anything but. Instead, the Fed issued a press release in the aftermath of the meeting that caught even its closest watchers off-guard, and is indicative of the state of turmoil in the U.S. economy and financial markets. The Fed left the “federal funds” interest rate at o to .25 percent. That in itself is not a shock. The Fed surprised markets, however, by specifying for how long it will hold interest rates at this low level: through mid-2013. It is unprecedented for the Fed to specify so precisely for how long it will maintain a given policy. The committee meeting must have been a brouhaha, because 3 of the 10 voting members dissented. In recent years, dissents have been infrequent and typically just one vote. (Outgoing Kansas City Fed president Thomas Hoenig dissented at every meeting for one year.) The dissenters were the presidents of the Dallas, Minneapolis and Philadelphia Fed banks. Goldman Sachs reported that the last time there were 3 dissents was 1992. What is the meaning of this? Promising not to raise rates until mid-2013 means the Fed will not need to make a policy change in a presidential election year. That could be interpreted as an attempt to be non-political; that is, not to be a topic for campaign debate. It could equally be interpreted as an overtly political move to aid President Obama’s re-election. In years past, the Fed had a certain independence from politics and would have been insulated from the suspicion of partisanship. But the current Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, has politicized the Fed and invited suspicions about its motives. Promising to hold interest rates down for two years ties the FOMCs hands. A great deal can happen in two years, and the committee may come to regret the decision. The FOMC decision also signals the Fed has thrown in the towel on the recovery. Its economic forecasts have been consistently too rosy. It has explained weakness in economic growth in the first half of 2011 on special factors like disruptions in industrial production caused by events in Japan. It forecasted a stronger second-half growth as these transient factors passed from the scene. Now it is effectively admitting that something structural is wrong with the economy. It was late to that realization, as many forecasters and now the financial markets have been signaling. Given its more pessimistic view of the economic future, one might wonder why the FOMC didn’t adopt a still more aggressive stance. Why not announce a new round of purchases of financial assets as it has done twice before. Why not QE3 (quantitative easing, 3rd round)? Though I expect no such admission, I suspect that even Chairman Bernanke has come to the realization that prior monetary stimulus has failed. As it has. Additionally, if there were three dissents on lukewarm easing, he might have lost the vote for an even more aggressive policy. What about financial markets? For the near term, Treasury obligations are the only financial safe haven. (Gold is a commodity safe-haven.) The stock market has been trying to run on monetary and fiscal fuel. The room for further federal spending has been circumscribed. Now the prospects for additional monetary stimulus have dimmed. Markets are going to trade on economic fundamentals. Those are not strong, and hence the volatility witnessed in the last three days. There are two clear losers with today’s decision: the dollar and savers. The promise to keep interest rates low for two more years ensures continued weakness of the dollar against strong foreign currencies and gold. I watched the value of the Swiss franc and gold rise as the timing of announcement approached. Savers lose because of low returns. If the Fed were trying to destroy the middle class on the installment plan, it could hardly have devised a better policy than one of continued low interest rates. Mr. O’Driscoll is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and was formerly vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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