fitch-ratings

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NEW YORK/WASHINGTON (Clare Baldwin and Pedro da Costa) – The U.S. Treasury made a small profit when it sold a portion of its shares in American International Group Inc on Tuesday, but it was unclear how its investment in the beleaguered insurer will ultimately fare. The shares were sold for $29 apiece, just above the $28.73 average price the Treasury will need to break even on its record bailout of AIG during the financial crisis. But the sale price was at only a 1.6 percent discount to Tuesday’s closing price, which could prove scant comfort to investors who have watched AIG shares plummet 40 percent since the beginning of the year. Tuesday’s $8.7 billion stock offering, which included 200 million shares sold by the Treasury and 100 million sold by AIG itself, is far smaller than the $10 billion to $20 billion deal some banking sources had suggested earlier this year, hinting at a potential lack of investor interest. To be sure, Treasury and AIG only agreed earlier this month on the size of the offer, and the U.S. government did not make its investments in AIG with the intention of turning a profit. Rather, it acquired the stock under extreme duress, as the potential failure of the insurance giant threatened to exacerbate an already severe financial crisis in late 2008. “We’re hopeful that we can recover all the investment that we made,” Tim Massad, the Treasury’s acting secretary for financial stability said during a conference call with reporters on Tuesday. The extent of the profits or losses will not be known until Treasury fully exits its investment, a landmark event for which there is no specific timetable, Massad said. Following an agreed “lock-up” period of 120 days, Treasury will continue to reduce its holdings “in an orderly fashion.” “We’re going to sell in a way to maximize value to the taxpayer,” Massad said. So far, Treasury has raised $5.8 billion of the $47.5 billion it needs to break even on the equity portion of its investment. Treasury cut its stake in AIG from 92 percent, but, by far remains the majority shareholder, with 77 percent. It has another 1.5 billion shares to sell. HOW QUICKLY, AND AT WHAT PRICE? AIG’s share sale is important for the U.S. government, which is trying to sell out of multiple investments it made in companies during the financial crisis. The bailouts were highly unpopular, especially after it became known that top managers in the same AIG unit that drove the company into a rut had continued to pay themselves handsome bonuses while receiving taxpayers’ help. The AIG share sale is also a key moment for Chief Executive Officer Robert Benmosche. Benmosche, who became AIG’s fifth CEO in less than five years in August 2009, halted a plan to break the company up in a fire sale of its parts. He instead embarked on a revival centered around two core businesses: U.S. life insurer SunAmerica and global property insurer Chartis. Other businesses were sold, taken public or left to operate with a view toward an eventual sale. AIG was literally minutes from bankruptcy when it was rescued in September 2008. The various iterations of the rescue package ended up being worth $182 billion, dwarfing various other bailouts around the world during the financial crisis. The question now is how quickly the U.S. government exits its investment and whether it ultimately breaks even. Benmosche has said he expects the government to be out of its AIG position by mid-2012. Fitch Ratings said recently its own models for the company assume the government is out by the end of 2012. (Additional reporting by Ben Berkowitz; Editing by Gary Hill and Erica Billingham) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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AIG Share Sale Makes A Profit For U.S. Treasury

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May 20 (Bloomberg) — Mark Grant, managing director at Southwest Securities Inc., discusses the outlook for Greece’s economy and prospects for debt restructuring. Greece’s credit rating was cut three levels by Fitch Ratings, which said that even a voluntary extension of its bond maturities being studied by European Union policy makers would be considered a default. Grant speaks with Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Grant Says Greece Is Right at Brink of `Going Belly-Up’: Video

Video: Fitch Cuts Greece’s Credit Rating Three Levels to B+

May 20, 2011

May 20 (Bloomberg) — Greece’s credit rating was cut three levels by Fitch Ratings to B+, four levels below investment grade, from BB+. David Tweed reports on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness With Margaret Brennan.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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US Credit Card ABS Remain Positive

February 4, 2011

Performance of US credit card assetbacked securities was positive for the second month in a row in January according to Fitch Ratings credit card ABS index

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Fitch Unveils RMBS Rating Model

February 4, 2011

Fitch Ratings has developed a new rating system for determining potential losses from US residential mortgagebacked securities reports Bloomberg

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Another EU Country Has Its Debt Downgraded

December 23, 2010

LONDON — Portugal had its credit rating downgraded Thursday by the Fitch Ratings agency amid mounting concerns over the country’s ability to raise money in the markets to finance its hefty borrowings. Fitch said it was reducing its rating on the country’s debt by one notch to A+ from AA- and warned that further downgrades may be in the offing by maintaining its negative outlook. “The downgrade reflects an even slower reduction in the current account deficit and a much more difficult financing environment for the Portuguese government and banks than incorporated into Fitch’s previous rating (in March), as well as a deteriorating near-term economic outlook,” Fitch said in a statement. Fitch’s downgrade follows a warning earlier this week from rival Moody’s Investor Services that it may cut its A1 rating on Portugal by a notch or two because of uncertain economic growth, the high cost of borrowing on global markets and worries about the banking sector. Fitch’s reasoning is very similar and is likely to stoke renewed speculation that Portugal could well be the next country using the euro in need of financial help from its partners in the European Union and the International Monetary Fund – Greece and Ireland have already suffered the ignominy of being bailed out. The agency said the Portuguese government would likely meet its target of reducing its budget deficit to 7.3 percent of national income this year, but voiced concerns that this is heavily dependent on one-time measures, which don’t make a dent on the long-term state of the public finances. As a result, Fitch said the government will find it “extremely challenging” getting the budget into shape, especially if, as the agency expects, the economy falls into recession next year. The Portuguese government aims to reduce the budget deficit to 3 percent of GDP by 2012 and to just 2 percent of 2013, which would be extremely difficult if the eurozone’s smallest economy starts to contract again – in effect, lower growth means lower tax receipts and higher social spending, hardly conducive to budgetary health. “Failure to meet its 2011 budget headline and structural deficit targets would erode confidence in the medium-term sustainability of public finances that underpins Portugal’s current sovereign ratings,” Fitch said.

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Restrictions In Communication Could Hurt US CMBS

November 21, 2010

A rule recently introduced by the US Securities and Exchange Commission that restrict communication between special servicers of US commercial mortgagebacked securities and credit rating agencies could have the unintended consequence of creating unnecessary rating volatility warns Fitch Ratings

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US RMBS Threatened By Small Loan Pools

November 17, 2010

US residential mortgagebacked securities are being threatened by a growing number of outstanding small pools of loans according to Fitch Ratings

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Video: Major Says Long-Dated Irish Bonds Are `More Vulnerable’

November 10, 2010

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) — Steven Major, global head of fixed-income research at HSBC Holdings Plc, talks about the outlook for Irish bonds and for today’s auction of Portuguese debt. Major, speaking with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television’s “On The Move,” also discusses Banco Espirito Santo SA’s decision to terminate its contract with Fitch Ratings after the credit rating agency downgraded the lender.

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Prime Auto ABS Perform Better Than Expected

October 11, 2010

Fitch Ratings reports that lowerthanexpected losses for 2009 US prime automobile loan assetbacked securities will result in continued positive rating performance for this vintage

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Video: Pryce Says Irish Cuts Must Focus on ‘Impressing Markets’

October 7, 2010

Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) — Chris Pryce, an analyst at Fitch Ratings Ltd., talks about the Irish government’s budget cuts and the state of the country’s banks. He speaks with Andrea Catherwood on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.”

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US CreditCard ABS ChargeOffs Hits 1037

October 6, 2010

Chargeoffs on US credit card assetbacked securities topped 10 for the second month in a row in August according to Fitch Ratings

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Fitch Downgrades Older ReRemics82328232

September 26, 2010

Fitch Ratings has downgraded 70 of the US RMBS resecuritization trusts rated below BB that were issued before 2008

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This Week in Retail: Fitch Projects Modest Growth for Retailers

August 11, 2010

Fitch Ratings sees increased stability for ratings of U.S. retailers through the end of the year, according to its summer 2010 Retail Register report. In fiscal 2011, total sales are expected to grow 4% for the 27 companies under Fitch’s coverage. This…

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CMBS Delinquencies Drop First Time In 33 Months

August 11, 2010

US commercial mortgagebacked securities delinquencies declined for the first time in 33 months in October according to Fitch Ratings

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$2.3 Billion in Troubled CMBS Loans Coming Due Over Next 6 Months

June 29, 2010

There are 960 fixed rate loans representing $9.6 billion scheduled to mature by the end of the year, according to a Fitch Ratings’ review of CMBS fixed rate commercial loans. Of these 960 loans, 103 loans representing $2.3 billion (23.3%) are in special…

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BP Stops Dividends, Pledges Asset Sales to Finance Obama’s Oil-Spill Fund

June 16, 2010

By Brian Swint June 16 (Bloomberg) — BP Plc canceled three quarterly payments of its $10 billion-a-year dividend after President Barack Obama demanded it put up cash for victims of the Gulf of Mexico spill. BP said it will reduce expenditures and sell more assets than planned to free up cash. The previously announced first-quarter payment due on June 21 will be canceled, it said in a statement today. No dividend will be paid for the second and third quarters, BP said. We “are confident that the agreement announced today will provide greater comfort of the citizens of the Gulf coast and greater clarity to BP and its shareholders,” Chairman Carl- Henric Svanberg said after a meeting with Obama in Washington today. Svanberg and Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward agreed to set aside $20 billion over several years to compensate victims of the spill after Obama in an Oval Office address yesterday called for the creation of a fund. “We’ve sorted out a lot of the uncertainty, and that’s what the market didn’t like,” Peter Hitchens , an analyst at Panmure Gordon & Co. in London, said in a telephone interview. “This is a painful measure, but the market has got used to the idea.” ‘Not as Bad’ BP’s American depositary receipts were up 45 cents to $31.85 in New York trading. Earlier they touched $33. The shares are down 46 percent since the April 20 explosion aboard the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig that killed 11 workers and triggered the oil spill. “Now that everyone is on the same side, it should restore confidence,” Panmure’s Hitchens said. “BP’s not the winner, but it’s not as bad as some people thought.” BP’s payments accounted for about 14 percent of all dividends in the U.K.’s benchmark FTSE 100 stock index last year. Fitch Ratings yesterday lowered BP’s credit score by six grades to BBB, two levels above junk, on concern costs will escalate. To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net .

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BP Cancels Dividend to Set Aside $20 Billion for Spill-Compensation Fund

June 16, 2010

By Brian Swint June 16 (Bloomberg) — BP Plc canceled three quarterly payments of its $10 billion-a-year dividend after President Barack Obama demanded it put up cash for victims of the Gulf of Mexico spill. The previously announced first-quarter payment due on June 21 will be canceled, it said in a statement today. No dividend will be paid for the second and third quarters, BP said. We “are confident that the agreement announced today will provide greater comfort of the citizens of the Gulf coast and greater clarity to BP and its shareholders,” Chairman Carl- Henric Svanberg said after a meeting with Obama in Washington today. Svanberg and Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward agreed to set aside $20 billion over several years to compensate victims of the spill after Obama in an Oval Office address yesterday called for creation of a fund. BP said it will reduce capital expenditure and sell more assets than planned to free up cash. “The dividend is off the table,” said Alastair Syme , an oil and gas analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc. in London, before the announcement. “Until they have some clarity on the costs of the spill, they can’t do anything.” BP’s payments accounted for about 14 percent of all dividends in the U.K.’s benchmark FTSE 100 stock index last year. Fitch Ratings yesterday lowered BP’s credit score by six grades to BBB, two levels above junk, on concern costs will escalate. To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net .

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BP&rsquos Rating Cut by Fitch to Two Levels Above &lsquoJunk&rsquo

June 15, 2010

By Brian Swint and John Glover June 15 (Bloomberg) — BP Plc’s credit rating was cut six levels to two above junk by Fitch Ratings on concern over the potential cost of cleaning up the Gulf of Mexico oil spill and meeting future liabilities. BP’s long-term issuer default and senior unsecured ratings were lowered to BBB from AA, Fitch said in a statement today. That follows a reduction from AA+ on June 3. President Barack Obama and U.S. lawmakers said this week that BP should suspend dividends and set aside funds now for legal claims against the company from the spill, the worst in U.S. history. Fitch said it would be “surprised” if BP didn’t suspend the quarterly payout until the full costs are known. The cost of cleanup and liabilities may reach $40 billion, Standard Chartered Plc. estimated last week. “The recent claims by U.S. state and federal authorities that BP escrow significant sums preemptively, ahead of any agreed claims process, represent a material change in approach,” Fitch said in a statement. BP has about $23 billion of debt outstanding, Bloomberg data show. BP fell 3.8 percent to 342 pence in London, the lowest since April 1997, after earlier rising as much as 2 percent. Borrowing Costs BP’s cost of borrowing is greater now for the short term than for longer periods, a signal lenders are concerned at the possibility of incurring losses on their credits. Investors demand more yield to compensate them for an expected loss in the short term because a decline in the value of a long-term investment can be spread out over a greater period. The result is that the so-called yield curve inverts as yields on short-term bonds rise. The yield premium investors demand to hold BP’s $1.5 billion of 3.125 percent bonds due 2012 rather than similar- maturity government debt jumped 114 basis points to 730 basis points, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The spread on its $1 billion of 4.75 percent notes due 2019 increased 48 basis points to 378 basis points, according to Trace. BP five-year credit-default swaps surged 39 basis points to 476.5 after today’s ratings downgrade, according to CMA DataVision. Contracts covering the company’s debt for one year were at 579 basis points, according to CMA. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid yesterday requested that BP set aside $20 billion in a fund to be administered by an independent trustee to speed up the claims process for victims of the spill. Changed Outlook Fitch changed the outlook on BP to “evolving” from “negative.” BP had $5 billion of cash available, $5.25 billion of bank credit lines it hadn’t used and another $5.25 billion of stand- by bank facilities, according to Fitch, which cited a June 4 investor call. Fitch said it expects BP’s lenders to allow the company to use the credit lines if needed. Moody’s Investors Service rates BP debt at Aa2, the third- highest investment grade, and Standard & Poor’s has it at AA-, seven grades above the highest non-investment ranking. S&P downgraded BP by one level last week. Moody’s and S&P, both based in New York, declined to comment. To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net . John Glover in London at johnglover@bloomberg.net

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BP’s Credit Rating Is Lowered Six Levels by Fitch to Two Grades Above Junk

June 15, 2010

By Brian Swint and John Glover June 15 (Bloomberg) — BP Plc’s credit rating was cut six levels to two above junk by Fitch Ratings on concern over the potential cost of cleaning up the Gulf of Mexico oil spill and meeting future liabilities. BP’s long-term issuer default and senior unsecured ratings were lowered to BBB from AA, Fitch said in a statement today. That follows a reduction from AA+ on June 3. President Barack Obama and U.S. lawmakers said this week that BP should suspend dividends and set aside funds now for legal claims against the company from the spill, the worst in U.S. history. Fitch said it would be “surprised” if BP didn’t suspend the quarterly payout until the full costs are known. The cost of cleanup and liabilities may reach $40 billion, Standard Chartered Plc. estimated last week. “The recent claims by U.S. state and federal authorities that BP escrow significant sums preemptively, ahead of any agreed claims process, represent a material change in approach,” Fitch said in a statement. BP has about $23 billion of debt outstanding, Bloomberg data show. BP fell 3.8 percent to 342 pence in London, the lowest since April 1997, after earlier rising as much as 2 percent. Borrowing Costs BP’s cost of borrowing is greater now for the short term than for longer periods, a signal lenders are concerned at the possibility of incurring losses on their credits. Investors demand more yield to compensate them for an expected loss in the short term because a decline in the value of a long-term investment can be spread out over a greater period. The result is that the so-called yield curve inverts as yields on short-term bonds rise. The yield premium investors demand to hold BP’s $1.5 billion of 3.125 percent bonds due 2012 rather than similar- maturity government debt jumped 114 basis points to 730 basis points, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The spread on its $1 billion of 4.75 percent notes due 2019 increased 48 basis points to 378 basis points, according to Trace. BP five-year credit-default swaps surged 39 basis points to 476.5 after today’s ratings downgrade, according to CMA DataVision. Contracts covering the company’s debt for one year were at 579 basis points, according to CMA. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid yesterday requested that BP set aside $20 billion in a fund to be administered by an independent trustee to speed up the claims process for victims of the spill. Changed Outlook Fitch changed the outlook on BP to “evolving” from “negative.” BP had $5 billion of cash available, $5.25 billion of bank credit lines it hadn’t used and another $5.25 billion of stand- by bank facilities, according to Fitch, which cited a June 4 investor call. Fitch said it expects BP’s lenders to allow the company to use the credit lines if needed. Moody’s Investors Service rates BP debt at Aa2, the third- highest investment grade, and Standard & Poor’s has it at AA-, seven grades above the highest non-investment ranking. S&P downgraded BP by one level last week. Moody’s and S&P, both based in New York, declined to comment. To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net . John Glover in London at johnglover@bloomberg.net

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Europe’s Debt Crisis Causing Investors to Ignore Positive News, BIS Says

June 13, 2010

By Emma Ross-Thomas June 14 (Bloomberg) — Europe’s sovereign debt crisis has created an environment in which investors are dwelling on negative developments even when data show economic recovery, the Bank for International Settlements said. “Against this background of heightened uncertainty, market participants focused on the deteriorating financial-market conditions while often ignoring positive macroeconomic news,” the Basel, Switzerland-based BIS said in its quarterly report yesterday. “The April jobs report, for example, saw U.S. non- farm payrolls increase by 100,000 more jobs than expected to 290,000, but the S&P 500 Index fell by 1.5 percent on the day.” The debt crisis sent the euro to a four-year low against the dollar on June 7 and has wiped out more than $4 trillion from global stock markets this year. European leaders unveiled a 750 billion-euro ($910 billion) rescue mechanism last month to stem contagion from Greece, initially reversing a surge in the risk premium on Spanish and Portuguese bonds. “The relief in markets turned out to be temporary, however, as investor confidence soon deteriorated on worries about the possible interactions between public debt and growth,” the BIS said. As investors’ attention turned to growth prospects on the periphery of the euro region and Fitch Ratings stripped Spain of its AAA rating, citing a sluggish growth outlook, the extra yield investors demand to hold Spanish debt rather than German equivalents rose to a euro-era high of 216 basis points on June 8, easing to 188 basis points on June 11. The differential on Portuguese debt stood at 255 basis points on June 11. Investor Concerns “Investors questioned the robustness of global growth due to a number of factors in recent weeks, including the risk that the surge of public debt could derail the economic recovery and growing concerns that the financial system was more fragile than previously thought,” BIS Economic Adviser Stephen Cecchetti , head of the monetary and economic department, told journalists in a June 11 conference call. Some European nations risk a “double dip” economic slowdown if the region fails to manage its debt crisis, the World Bank said June 9. “If markets lost confidence in the credibility of efforts to put policy on a sustainable path, global growth could be significantly impaired and a double-dip recession could not be excluded,” the Washington-based lender said in its report. To contact the reporter on this story: Emma Ross-Thomas in Madrid at erossthomas@bloomberg.net

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Japanese Stock Futures Drop on Europe Concern Australia’s Gain on Metals

June 8, 2010

By Norie Kuboyama and Kotaro Tsunetomi June 9 (Bloomberg) — Japanese stock futures slid as the euro fell amid concern European’s debt crisis will worsen after Fitch Ratings called the U.K.’s fiscal challenge “formidable.” Australian stock futures advanced after commodity prices gained. American depositary receipts of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s largest bank by market value, lost 0.5 percent from the closing share price in Tokyo. Those of Kyocera Corp., an electronic components maker which derives almost 20 percent of its sales from Europe, fell 0.3 percent. ADRs of BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, gained 0.7 percent after metal prices advanced. “Europe’s fiscal concerns are remaining,” said Hiroichi Nishi , an equities manager in Tokyo at Nikko Cordial Securities Inc. “People may have an appetite for bargain hunting as stocks’ values are becoming reasonable.” Yen-denominated futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average expiring in June closed at 9,510 in Chicago yesterday, lower than 9,515 in Singapore. They were bid in the pre-market at 9,510 as of 8:05 a.m. today in Osaka, Japan. The Nikkei 225 closed at 9,537.94 yesterday, rising for the first time in three days, while the Topix index dropped 0.1 percent. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 0.2 percent today. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index gained 0.6 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index yesterday rose 0.6 percent, climbing for the first time in three days after comments from Ben S. Bernanke, the chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, eased investor concerns over the strength of the global economy. Companies in the MSCI Asia index trade at 14.1 times estimated earnings on average, compared with 13.1 times for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and 11 times for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. Metals Gain The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined for a third day yesterday, falling 1.1 percent. Fitch Ratings yesterday said the scale of the U.K.’s fiscal challenge is “formidable,” fanning concern that the crisis may spread to the region’s largest economies. The benchmark has slumped 12 percent from this year’s high on April 15 as credit rating downgrades for Spain, Portugal and Greece triggered concern some European nations will struggle to fund their deficits. The yen strengthened to as much as 109.36 per euro today from 109.86 at the 3 p.m. close of Tokyo stock trading yesterday. Against the dollar, the Japanese currency appreciated to as much as 91.4 from 91.77. A stronger yen lowers the value of overseas sales at Japanese companies when repatriated. The London Metal Exchange Index of six metals including copper and zinc gained 2 percent yesterday, the most since May 27 and its first advance in seven days. Crude oil for July delivery climbed 0.8 percent in New York. Japan’s New Cabinet Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.1 percent today. The index climbed 1.1 percent yesterday in New York, trimming its loss since June 3 to 3.7 percent. The gauge rose after swinging between gains and losses at least 13 times as a rally in commodity markets boosted oil and metals producers and overshadowed losses in semiconductor companies. Naoto Kan, Japan’s first leader in 15 years with no family connection to politics, yesterday pledged to draw from his common upbringing to help revive an economy hamstrung by persistent deflation and the world’s biggest public debt. Kan is the fifth premier in four years and second since his Democratic Party of Japan overturned five decades of mostly one- party rule last August. He retained 11 Cabinet members from predecessor Yukio Hatoyama ’s administration as he sought to demonstrate stability before mid-term elections in July that are a referendum on the DPJ’s nine months in power. To contact the reporters for this story: Norie Kuboyama in Tokyo at nkuboyama@bloomberg.net ; Kotaro Tsunetomi in Tokyo at ktsunetomi@bloomberg.net

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U.S. Stocks Advance on Oil&rsquos Rally Euro Rises, Gold Retreats

June 8, 2010

By Nick Baker and Esmé E. Deprez June 8 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, pushing the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index up 1.1 percent after it swung between gains and losses at least 13 times, as a rally in oil and metal markets boosted commodity producers. Gold retreated after reaching a record high. The S&P 500 climbed 11.53 points to 1,062, recovering less than a quarter of the slump through yesterday that was the biggest two-day retreat since March 2009. Crude oil futures advanced 1.5 percent to $72.53 a barrel in electronic trading at 5 p.m. in New York, while copper, aluminum and nickel rallied in London. The euro rose 0.4 percent to $1.1973 amid speculation the Swiss National Bank sold the franc. Equities rose after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the economic recovery is intact and a private report showed confidence among U.S. small businesses rose to the highest level since September 2008. Gains in commodities prices helped the S&P 500 overcome losses by semiconductor companies and declines in European stocks after Fitch Ratings said the U.K.’s deficit challenge is “formidable.” “You have a very significant struggle going on in the markets between the bull camp, which believes that the recovery cycle and the market is cheap or undervalued, and the bear camp, which believes that the message of the market is that the cycle will not hold,” said Hugh Johnson , who oversees $1.85 billion as chairman of Albany, New York-based Johnson Illington. “That debate played out in the markets today the bulls had the upper hand, but there’s no telling what tomorrow will bring.” Trading Volume The S&P 500 closed within 0.1 percent of its highest level of the day. Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 11.5 billion shares, the most since May 26 and 20 percent higher than the 2010 average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. More shares changed hands than on June 4, when a report showing private employers added 77 percent fewer jobs in the U.S. than the median economist estimate sent the S&P 500 down 3.4 percent. Oil’s gain sent the S&P 500 Energy Index to a 1.9 percent rally. Exxon Mobil Corp. rallied 3.3 percent to $61.24 and ConocoPhillips advanced 2.5 percent to $50.84. The industry stock gauge rose even as Chevron Corp . fell 0.5 percent to $71.02 and Transocean Ltd . tumbled 5.8 percent to $46.33 after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its rating to “neutral.” Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. climbed 4.8 percent following gains in metal prices. Gold futures fell after rising to a record high of $1,254.50 an ounce. They slipped 0.2 percent from yesterday’s close to $1,238.20 in electronic trading. The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar as traders bet central bankers in Switzerland are selling francs. The franc climbed to a record 1.3746 per euro after Switzerland’s Federal Statistics Office said foreign-currency reserves jumped to 232.4 billion Swiss francs ($202 billion) in May, from 153.6 billion francs in April. “Swiss reserves exploded last month,” Christian Lawrence , a foreign-exchange strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in London, said today in an investor note. It calls “into question how long the Swiss National Bank can keep this up.” To contact the reporters on this story: Nick Baker in New York at nbaker7@bloomberg.net ; Esmé E. Deprez in New York at edeprez@bloomberg.net .

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Euro Rises, Sending Oil, S&ampP 500 Higher Gold Surges to Record

June 8, 2010

By Nick Baker June 8 (Bloomberg) — The euro strengthened while oil and U.S. stocks rallied amid speculation the Swiss National Bank sold the franc to safeguard the economic recovery. Gold climbed to a record. The euro increased 0.4 percent to $1.196 and pared its loss against the Swiss franc at 12:31 p.m. in New York. Crude futures rose 0.7 percent to $71.96 a barrel in New York. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied 0.2 percent to 1,052.78, led by commodity producers including Exxon Mobil Corp. and Freeport- McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. Gold futures rose as much as 1.1 percent to $1,254.50 an ounce. U.S. stocks recovered from losses driven by semiconductor companies and retailers as traders bet central bankers in Switzerland are selling francs, driving up the euro and commodities prices. Equities had advanced earlier after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the economic recovery is intact. Shares plunged in Europe and gold surged after Fitch Ratings said Britain’s deficit challenge is “formidable.” “There is a lot of value in this market,” said Howard Ward , a money manager at Gamco Investors Inc. which manages $26 billion in Rye, New York. “I would lean against the fear and take advantage of the low prices.” The franc climbed to a record 1.3746 per euro after Switzerland’s Federal Statistics Office said foreign-currency reserves jumped to 232.4 billion Swiss francs ($202 billion) in May, from 153.6 billion francs in April. ‘Exploded’ “Swiss reserves exploded last month,” Christian Lawrence , a foreign-exchange strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in London, said today in an investor note. It calls “into question how long the Swiss National Bank can keep this up.” UBS AG said it ended a recommendation to buy the franc versus the euro after the Swiss currency reached the bank’s forecast of 1.38. The Fed chairman helped alleviate concern about the pace of the economic recovery that following slower-than-estimated jobs growth in the U.S. last month. After losing 14 percent since April 23, the S&P 500 closed at a seven-month low yesterday. Confidence among U.S. small businesses rose in May to the highest level in 20 months as executives planned to add to inventories, a private survey showed. To contact the reporter on this story: Nick Baker in New York at nbaker7@bloomberg.net .

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Video: Fitch’s Ho Sees China’s Economic Growth Slowing in 2011: Video

June 6, 2010

June 7 (Bloomberg) — Fitch Ratings associate director Vincent Ho talks with Bloomberg’s Rishaad Salamat about the outlook for China’s economy and credit rating. Ho, speaking in Hong Kong, also discusses the prospects for China’s banking industry. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Fitch’s Woodruff Says BP’s Business Risks Are `Growing’

June 4, 2010

June 4 (Bloomberg) — Jeffrey Woodruff, an energy analyst at Fitch Ratings, talks with Bloomberg’s Andrea Catherwood about the reasons behind the agency’s decision to cut BP Plc’s credit rating by one notch to AA. BP had its credit ratings cut by Fitch and Moody’s Investors Service on concern that the cost of cleaning up the Gulf of Mexico oil spill will hurt the company’s balance sheet.

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Moody’s Chief McDaniel Says Company’s CDO Ratings `Deeply Disappointing’

June 2, 2010

By Matthew Leising and Andrew Frye June 2 (Bloomberg) — Moody’s Corp. Chief Executive Officer Raymond McDaniel said his company’s ratings of collateralized debt obligations and residential mortgage securities in the past several years have been “deeply disappointing.” McDaniel said the collapse of the housing market and subsequent financial crisis were of a magnitude “many of us would have once thought unimaginable,” according to written testimony submitted to the U.S. Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission before a hearing today in New York on credit ratings. He said he is proud of Moody’s reputation and the firm’s record of 100 years of rating trillions of dollars in debt. “However, the performance of our credit ratings for U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities and related collateralized debt obligations over the past several years has been deeply disappointing,” he said. “Moody’s is certainly not satisfied with the performance of these ratings.” Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings face scrutiny by Congress and state insurance regulators after assigning top grades to U.S. subprime-mortgage bonds just before that market collapsed in 2007, sparking the financial crisis. Moody’s said last month it may be sued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for filing false and misleading descriptions of its credit-ratings policies. Warren Buffett , the billionaire chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and Moody Corp.’s largest shareholder , is also scheduled to testify, as is former employee Eric Kolchinsky , who has said the firm violated securities laws by knowingly providing “incorrect” ratings. Moody’s has denied the claim. Buffett declined to provide his written testimony in advance, according to the FCIC. Regulators The U.S. Senate in May approved a plan to allow regulators, instead of bond issuers, to choose who rates asset-backed securities after investors said the ratings companies inflated assessments of mortgage bonds because they were paid by Wall Street firms selling the debt. A panel, overseen by the SEC, would assign a credit-ratings company to evaluate an offering. The proposal is part of a larger financial reform package that the Senate passed last month. After being reconciled with the House version of the bill, it must be signed by President Barack Obama to become law. Moody’s shares fell $1.20, or 5.9 percent, to $19.30 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. They had lost more than 30 percent this year through yesterday. Testimony S&P and Fitch representatives weren’t invited to speak at the hearing today because their testimony wasn’t needed to understand issues with the credit-ratings industry, said Tucker Warren, a spokesman for the FCIC. The inquiry panel was created to investigate the causes of the financial crisis as Congress debates the most sweeping overhaul of banking regulations since the Great Depression. “To fulfill that mandate, it’s not always necessary for us to look at every institution within an industry to get the insight we need,” Warren said in an e-mailed statement. “In the case of our public hearing on credit ratings, the commission feels like Moody’s gives us a good look.” The fact that only Moody’s executives will appear today isn’t related to its being notified by the SEC that the company may be sued, Warren said. Buffett sold Moody’s stock in each of the last three quarters, reducing a stake that had remained steady at 48 million shares since 2000. Buffett, who oversees a U.S. equity portfolio with a market value of $50.9 billion at the end of March, invests in firms that he thinks have long-term competitive advantages. Other Sources Profits in the ratings industry are under pressure as bond buyers seek alternative sources of research, said Meyer Shields , an equity analyst with Stifel Nicolaus & Co. Some investors are doing more evaluations of debt on their own, while others are bypassing established firms such as Moody’s for newer ratings companies, Shields said. “Clearly, rating agencies missed this whole crisis,” Shields, who has a “hold” rating on Berkshire shares, said in an interview. “It does, I think, change the perception of the value that the rating agencies bring to the table.” Moody’s, whose founder John Moody created credit grades a century ago, competes with McGraw-Hill Cos.’s S&P unit and Fitch Ratings for business assigning grades to corporate debt and mortgage bonds. To contact the reporters on this story: Matthew Leising in New York at mleising@bloomberg.net ; Andrew Frye in New York at afrye@bloomberg.net .

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Video: Fitch Downgrades Spain, Casts Doubt on Growth Forecasts

May 31, 2010

May 31 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Will Chamberlin and David Tweed report on Fitch Ratings stripping Spain of its top AAA credit grade and the government’s growth forecasts.

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Emerging-Market Equities Advance on Earnings, Paring 9.9% Slump This Month

May 30, 2010

By Shiyin Chen and Saeromi Shin May 31 (Bloomberg) — Emerging-market stocks advanced, trimming the benchmark index’s worst monthly loss since October 2008, on speculation corporate earnings in developing nations will weather Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.3 percent to 919.62 as of 10:51 a.m. in Singapore, adding to a three-day, 7.2 percent rally. The measure has dropped 9.9 percent in May. South Korea’s won was set for its biggest monthly drop since February 2009, leading losses among developing-nation currencies, while the cost of insuring Asia-Pacific bonds from non-payment rose after Fitch Ratings stripped Spain of its AAA credit rating. Spain, which has the euro region’s third-largest budget deficit, was cut to AA+ on May 28 at Fitch Ratings, a signal that the European debt crisis may worsen. Still, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said today that emerging nations have overcome the global recession better than advanced countries and remain “a source of strength” for growth. “There seems to be a high perception that companies in Asian emerging nations are well positioned to benefit from China’s strong consumption growth,” said Chu Moon Sung, a Seoul-based fund manager at Shinhan BNP Paribas Asset Management Co. in Seoul, which manages $26 billion. “We’re witnessing solid economic figures even amid the ongoing concern over Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.” Telekom Malaysia Bhd. and Genting Bhd. advanced after the Malaysian companies reported higher earnings, adding to evidence that domestic consumption may continue to boost corporate profits. Cheil Worldwide Inc. jumped 5 percent in Seoul after Credit Suisse Group AG upgraded the equities, citing its “strong” operations and the correction in the shares. Debt Crisis The European debt crisis weighed more heavily on emerging- nation currencies, which retreated on concern investors will avoid riskier assets. Developing-nation stock funds posted net outflows of $2.4 billion in the week ended May 26, Morgan Stanley said in a May 28 report, citing data from EPFR Global. South Korea’s won slid 0.5 percent to 1,200.65 per dollar. Bank of Korea Governor Kim Choong Soo proposed that central banks set up a permanent arrangement for foreign currency swaps to help address the type of funding shortages that emerged during the global financial crisis. “If Spain downgrades there’s going to be concern about who’s downgraded next,” said Gerrard Katz , head of foreign- exchange trading at Standard Chartered Plc in Hong Kong. “Interbank lending is quite tight, which is one of the reasons they are asking for those swap agreements. You could take that as kind of a negative outlook on sentiment.” Indonesia’s rupiah dropped 0.3 percent to 9,193 per dollar. The nation’s benchmark Jakarta Composite index climbed 1.9 percent. To contact the reporter on this story: Shiyin Chen in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net

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Fitch Cuts Spain’s AAA Credit Rating

May 28, 2010

LONDON — Fitch Ratings cut Spain’s credit rating on Friday, saying the government’s efforts to reduce debt will weigh on economic growth in coming months – another blow to Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero’s efforts to shore up confidence in state finances. The ratings agency cut the country’s rating one notch from AAA to AA plus, saying Zapatero’s efforts to close the budget deficit “will materially reduce the rate of growth of the Spanish economy over the medium term.” The ratings agency decision echoes concerns from economists that efforts to cut state debt will also withdraw stimulus from the economy and hinder growth. Lower growth in turn means gathering less in tax revenues. Spain currently has an unemployment rate of 20 percent and is struggling with large deficits and the hangover from a collapsed housing and real estate boom like that in the U.S. On Thursday, Zapatero’s austerity package freezing pensions and cutting civil servants’ wages passed by just one vote in Parliament. The narrow margin underscored the government’s shaky position in parliament and the depth of resistance by unions to austerity measures. The measures – which aim to cut spending by euro15 billion ($18.4 billion) this year and next and reduce Spain’s oversized deficit – have been welcomed by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund but much criticized at home as a major reversal by the Socialists. The cuts are designed to reassure markets that Spain’s government debt problems won’t mushroom into a Greek-style crisis. THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP’s earlier story is below. LONDON (AP) – Fitch Ratings has cut Spain’s credit rating, saying the government’s efforts to reduce debt will weigh on economic growth in coming months. The ratings agency cut the country’s rating one notch from AAA to AA plus, the company said in a statement.

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Video: Merk Says Europe Bailout May Spark More Rating Cuts: Video

May 28, 2010

May 28 (Bloomberg) — Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer of Merk Investments LLC, talks with Bloomberg’s Lori Rothman about Fitch Ratings’ decision to cut Spain’s AAA credit grade and the possibility of further downgrades in Europe. Fitch lowered the grade one step to AA+ as Spain struggles to cut debt amid a fiscal crisis that prompted the European Union to forge an almost $1 trillion bailout package. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Ratings Board for Asset-Backed Securities Is Approved in U.S. Senate Vote

May 13, 2010

By Jesse Westbrook and Alison Vekshin May 13 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. Senate approved a proposal to let regulators decide who rates asset-backed securities after investors said Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service assigned inflated assessments to mortgage bonds because the companies were paid by Wall Street firms selling the debt. The Senate in a 64-35 vote today approved an amendment to the financial overhaul legislation that would create a ratings board overseen by the Securities and Exchange Commission. The panel would assign a credit-rating company to rank an offering. “There is a staggering conflict of interest affecting the credit-rating industry,” said Senator Al Franken , a Minnesota Democrat who offered the amendment. “Issuers of securities are paying for the credit ratings. They shop around for their ratings.” Public pension funds blame S&P, Moody’s and Fitch Ratings for helping cause the global financial crisis by giving top rankings to mortgage-linked securities that blew up when the housing market collapsed in 2007. Lawmakers and regulators have been debating for three years how to reduce conflicts at the companies. Shares of Moody’s and McGraw-Hill Cos., the parent company of Standard & Poor’s, fell initially on the news, though they have since rebounded. Moody’s fell as much as 6.8 percent to $20.77, a decline of $1.52, while McGraw-Hill dropped as much as 4 percent to $28.75, in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Investors on Board Moody’s shares were down 3 cents to $22.26 as of 2:21 p.m. McGraw-Hill fell 58 cents to $29.38. Shares of Financiere Marc de Lacharriere SA , the Paris-based owner of Fitch Ratings, were unchanged in after-market trading in Paris. Under Franken’s amendment, the SEC would determine the size of the board. The majority of members would be investors, at least one member would be from a credit-rating company and at least one member would be from an investment bank. The board would conduct an annual assessment of each credit-rating company to scrutinize the firm’s accuracy in grading debt compared with competitors, according to the amendment. While credit-rating companies would set fees, the SEC would have authority to make sure payments are “reasonable.” For the proposal to form a credit-rating board to become binding, lawmakers would have to approve the broader financial reform measure and President Barack Obama would have to sign the legislation. The Senate also approved an amendment offered by Senator George LeMieux that would remove references to credit ratings in some federal rules. LeMieux said removing ratings from government regulations would reduce a “dangerous over- reliance” on the assessments by investors. Consequences S&P said the Franken amendment would have unintended consequences. “Credit-rating firms would have less incentive to compete with one another, pursue innovation and improve their models,” said Chris Atkins , a spokesman for S&P. “This could lead to a more homogenized rating opinion and, ultimately, deprive investors of valuable, differentiated opinions on credit risk.” Spokesmen for Moody’s and Fitch didn’t immediately return phone calls seeking comment. To contact the reporters on this story: Jesse Westbrook in Washington at jwestbrook1@bloomberg.net ; Alison Vekshin in Washington at avekshin@bloomberg.net .

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Andrew Cumo Investigating Whether Banks Duped Rating Agencies

May 12, 2010

NEW YORK — The New York attorney general has launched an investigation into eight banks to determine whether they misled ratings agencies about mortgage securities, according to a person familiar with the investigation. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is trying to figure out if banks provided the agencies with false information in order to get better ratings on the risky securities, said the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the investigation has not been made public. Cuomo’s office is investigating Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, UBS AG, Citigroup Inc., Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Credit Agricole and Merrill Lynch, which is now part of Bank of America Corp. Spokesmen from the banks were immediately available to comment. During the housing boom, Wall Street banks often packaged pools of risky subprime mortgages together. The securities were then typically given top-notch ratings and investors purchased them, in part, because of their high ratings. The ratings, given out by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings, are used as a guide for investors to judge how risky an investment might be. As the housing market collapsed and more customers fell behind on repaying their mortgages, the securities began to fail. The securities have been widely blamed for exacerbating the credit crisis and costing investors and the banks themselves billions of dollars in losses. The ratings agencies have come under fire for having given such high ratings to securities that soured. The attorney general’s probe comes as federal regulators are investigating whether some of the banks misled investors when marketing and selling the securities and other investments that were tied to mortgages. The Securities and Exchange Commission charged Goldman Sachs with fraud over its packaging of mortgage securities. Goldman is facing a separate criminal investigation into the same securities. Goldman has denied the charges and plans to defend itself. Earlier this week it was reported that federal prosecutors are investigating whether Morgan Stanley misled investors about its role in a pair of $200 million derivatives whose performance was tied to mortgage-backed securities. The increased scrutiny over how banks managed, packaged and portrayed mortgage securities and derivatives comes as Congress discusses a major overhaul of financial regulations. Politicians have said an overhaul would add more transparency to investments and trading.

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Greek Bank Credit Ratings Cut by Fitch After Nation’s Sovereign Downgrade

April 9, 2010

By Christine Harper April 9 (Bloomberg) — National Bank of Greece SA and four other Greek lenders had their credit grades slashed today by Fitch Ratings after the credit firm downgraded their home nation’s sovereign rating. The changes “reflect Greek banks’ debilitated risk profile, particularly regarding their liquidity and funding position as a result of increased sovereign concerns,” Fitch said in a statement. “The banks will be challenged to maintain their present liquidity profile given current market volatility.” Fitch, one of the three biggest credit rating firms, lowered its assessment of Greece’s creditworthiness earlier in the day by two notches to the lowest investment grade and said the outlook remains negative. European Union officials responded by saying they are ready to rescue Greece if needed. Ratings on National Bank of Greece, the nation’s largest, along with EFG Eurobank Ergasias , Alpha Bank A.E. and Piraeus Bank SA were reduced by one notch to BBB-, the lowest investment-grade rating, and Fitch said the outlook remains negative. Agricultural Bank of Greece ’s long-term rating was cut to BB+, the highest junk rating, from BBB- and was also placed on rating watch negative. The banks’ deposits have declined by 2 percent to 4 percent in the three months that ended in March amid “elevated risk perception” surrounding Greece, Fitch said. The support rating floors on the five banks was also lowered to BB from BBB- as Fitch decided that the prospect of government help is more remote. Government Support “While in Fitch’s opinion the Greek government’s propensity to support banks remains, its ability to support them has been markedly reduced,” Fitch wrote. “Its ability to provide significant levels of support is itself likely to be dependent on the external provision of support” from the euro area and the International Monetary Fund. As of the end of December, the five banks had total assets of about 350 billion euros ($472 billion), according to data compiled by Bloomberg. National Bank of Greece, had 113.4 billion euros in total assets . To contact the reporter on this story: Christine Harper in New York at charper@bloomberg.net

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Greek Bank Credit Ratings Cut by Fitch After Nation’s Sovereign Downgrade

April 9, 2010

By Christine Harper April 9 (Bloomberg) — National Bank of Greece SA and four other Greek lenders had their credit grades slashed today by Fitch Ratings after the credit firm downgraded their home nation’s sovereign rating. The changes “reflect Greek banks’ debilitated risk profile, particularly regarding their liquidity and funding position as a result of increased sovereign concerns,” Fitch said in a statement. “The banks will be challenged to maintain their present liquidity profile given current market volatility.” Fitch, one of the three biggest credit rating firms, lowered its assessment of Greece’s creditworthiness earlier in the day by two notches to the lowest investment grade and said the outlook remains negative. European Union officials responded by saying they are ready to rescue Greece if needed. Ratings on National Bank of Greece, the nation’s largest, along with EFG Eurobank Ergasias , Alpha Bank A.E. and Piraeus Bank SA were reduced by one notch to BBB-, the lowest investment-grade rating, and Fitch said the outlook remains negative. Agricultural Bank of Greece ’s long-term rating was cut to BB+, the highest junk rating, from BBB- and was also placed on rating watch negative. The banks’ deposits have declined by 2 percent to 4 percent in the three months that ended in March amid “elevated risk perception” surrounding Greece, Fitch said. The support rating floors on the five banks was also lowered to BB from BBB- as Fitch decided that the prospect of government help is more remote. Government Support “While in Fitch’s opinion the Greek government’s propensity to support banks remains, its ability to support them has been markedly reduced,” Fitch wrote. “Its ability to provide significant levels of support is itself likely to be dependent on the external provision of support” from the euro area and the International Monetary Fund. As of the end of December, the five banks had total assets of about 350 billion euros ($472 billion), according to data compiled by Bloomberg. National Bank of Greece, had 113.4 billion euros in total assets . To contact the reporter on this story: Christine Harper in New York at charper@bloomberg.net

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Video: Brynjolfsson Says Greece Can’t Operate With Current Debt: Video

April 9, 2010

April 9 (Bloomberg) — John Brynjolfsson, chief investment officer at Armored Wolf LLC, talks with Bloomberg’s Carol Massar and Matt Miller about Greece’s debt crisis. European Union officials said they are ready to rescue Greece if needed as Fitch Ratings cut the country’s credit rating to the lowest investment grade and economists at UBS AG said that a bailout may be imminent. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Corzine Says MF Global Move to Trade Directly With Clients `in the Offing’

April 9, 2010

By Matthew Leising April 9 (Bloomberg) — Jon Corzine , the former New Jersey governor who was named chief executive officer of derivatives broker MF Global Holdings Ltd. in March, said his firm’s move toward trading with clients directly is in “the offing.” MF Global’s main business involves executing futures and options trades for its clients in financial and commodities markets. The New York-based broker has applied to become a primary dealer of U.S. government securities to expand into trades in which it takes on the kind of risk associated with the world’s biggest banks. “There will be a strategic decision that we’ll have to look at about whether we move more towards principal trading, not proprietary trading, but facilitating client business,” Corzine, who ran Goldman, Sachs & Co. from 1994 to 1999, said today in a Bloomberg Television interview. “That probably is in the offing,” he said. “One of the ways you do that, fairly naturally, is through using your own balance sheet.” Corzine, 63, who joined MF Global on March 23, takes the helm at a time when its business has been hurt by low interest rates and depressed trading volumes for futures. Fitch Ratings put the company’s BBB credit ranking on negative watch on March 23 after Corzine’s appointment following the departure of CEO Bernard Dan . Moody’s Investors Service said its outlook continues to reflect the company’s “high leverage and weak profitability.” Moody’s rates MF Global Baa2 rating, the second-lowest grade. Corzine, a Democrat, was defeated in the November election by Republican Chris Christie , 47, amid voter anger over the state’s finances and the U.S. recession. Corzine had said he was interested in returning to Wall Street after leaving office. To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Leising in New York at mleising@bloomberg.net .

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Video: Lebas Says Treasury Yields Aren’t `Much Changed’: Video

April 9, 2010

April 9 (Bloomberg) — Guy Lebas, chief fixed-income strategist strategist and economist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, talks with Bloomberg’s Lori Rothman about the outlook for the U.S. Treasury market. Lebas also discusses Greece’s fiscal crisis after European Union officials said they are ready to rescue the country if necessary after Fitch Ratings cut the country’s credit rating to its lowest grade. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Trichet to Extend ECB Soft Collateral Rules Into 2011 as Greece Struggles

March 25, 2010

By Simon Kennedy and Frances Robinson March 25 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the bank will leave emergency collateral rules in place into 2011, softening his stance as Greece struggles to reduce the European Union’s largest budget deficit. “It is the intention of the ECB’s Governing Council to keep the minimum credit threshold in the collateral framework at investment grade level (BBB-) beyond the end of 2010,” Trichet told the European Parliament in Brussels today. He also said the ECB will in January introduce a “graded haircut schedule,” allowing it to charge banks more for the lower-rated collateral they submit in return for ECB loans. “This is the ECB’s contribution to resolving the Greek crisis,” said Laurent Bilke , a former ECB economist now at Nomura International Plc. “This is a way of saying we need to give a little bit of support to Greece and perhaps also a message to the rest of the EU that it’s not a bad idea to support Greece.” Greek bonds had risked becoming ineligible in ECB refinancing operations at the end of the year in the event of Moody’s Investors Service cutting its rating to a level comparable with other ratings agencies. Trichet’s comments mark a reversal of his stance in January, when he said the ECB wouldn’t change its collateral policy “for the sake of any particular country.” The ECB was scheduled to reintroduce pre- crisis rules at the end of 2010. Greek Yields Drop Greek government bonds rose, with the yield on the two-year bond falling 16 basis points to 4.8 percent. The euro climbed to $1.3347 at 10:46 a.m. in Frankfurt from $1.3284 this morning. Trichet spoke hours before EU leaders convene in Brussels with Germany pressing to end weeks of continental wrangling over an aid package for Greece. The squabbling and concern that the region’s fiscal woes are spreading has sent the euro to a 10- month low against the dollar and its weakest ever versus the Swiss franc. The summit starts at 5 p.m. Had the ECB reverted to its pre-crisis rules, a downgrade of two notches by Moody’s, which has an A2 rating on Greece, would have meant banks couldn’t use Greek government bonds when borrowing from the central bank. That risked exacerbating the fiscal crisis and threatening the region’s recovery from recession. Credit Ratings Trichet first signaled a shift was possible in a March 12 interview with Bloomberg Radio, when he said “we have to look at this particular issue.” He said today he will give more details of the ECB’s strategy when its Governing Council next meets on April 8. Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings cut Greece’s credit grade to BBB+ in December. Moody’s has said it may reduce its A2 rating two steps to Baa1 if Greece only partially implements its plan to cut a budget deficit that reached 12.7 percent of gross domestic product last year. S&P last week lowered its threat of another credit-rating downgrade. Trichet said earlier this week he doesn’t expect any further downgrades of Greece’s sovereign ratings. The ECB initially loosened its collateral rules as a way of helping banks obtain liquidity as the global financial crisis prompted them to halt lending to each other. Today’s decision “is an encouraging sign that the ECB will proceed gradually in removing its unconventional support for the banking sector,” said Jennifer McKeown , an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. It “will bring some relief to the region’s banks, particularly in Greece.” To contact the reporters on this story: Simon Kennedy in Paris at skennedy4@bloomberg.net ; Frances Robinson in Frankfurt at frobinson6@bloomberg.net

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Merkel Says IMF, EU Loans to Greece Should Be Last Resort if Default Looms

March 25, 2010

By James G. Neuger March 25 (Bloomberg) — Germany will press today to end weeks of European haggling over an aid package for debt-laden Greece, seeking new rules to impose fiscal discipline on countries using the euro to buttress the faltering currency. Asserting Germany’s clout as the European Union’s largest economy, Chancellor Angela Merkel ruled out an aid decision at today’s EU summit in Brussels, pushing for the International Monetary Fund to be part of any rescue, and called for tougher penalties on future deficit violators. “The German strategy for the next couple of months is very simple: provide just enough positive rhetoric that investors continue to purchase Greek bonds,” said Peter Zeihan , an analyst at Stratfor , a geopolitical risk consultancy in Austin, Texas. “On the flip side, they want to make sure via rhetoric that there’s just enough doubt that the markets demand a much higher spread than the Greeks are hoping for. The Germans want to make very sure that the Greeks are punished.” Squabbling over Greece and concern that fiscal woes will engulf Portugal, which was stung by a debt downgrade by Fitch Ratings yesterday, sent the euro to a 10-month low against the dollar and its weakest ever against the Swiss franc. French officials declined to comment before the summit even as German officials advocated IMF involvement and outlined the price of their helping Greece cut the biggest EU budget deficit . In an effort to shape the European debate, Merkel made a last- minute decision to outline Germany’s stance to the Bundestag at 9:30 a.m. Berlin time today before heading to Brussels. Weaker Euro The summit starts at 5 p.m., though at the last meeting on Feb. 11 a Greek accord was struck before the official start. The euro, which slumped 1.4 percent to a 10-month low against the dollar yesterday, rose 0.1 percent to $1.3327 at 7:11 a.m. in London. It fell to 1.4271 Swiss francs, the weakest since the euro started in 1999. Central bankers led the charge against an IMF option. An appeal to the Washington-based lender of last resort would be “detrimental to the stability” of the 16-nation currency because it would show that Europe is unable to keep its own house in order, European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said. “The image of the euro would be that of a currency that is able to survive only with the external support of an international organization,” Bini Smaghi told Germany’s Die Zeit newspaper yesterday. Greek bonds fell yesterday, pushing the 10-year yield up 6 basis points to 6.36 percent, 330 basis points above comparable German debt. That extra borrowing cost has risen from 273 basis points on Feb. 11 when the EU vowed “determined and coordinated action” to stanch the crisis. Borrowing Costs Greece isn’t seeking EU handouts, government spokesman George Petalotis said on state-run NET TV. The goal for the summit is “European solidarity” that will help bring down Greek borrowing costs, he said. Greece, which needs to sell about 10 billion euros ($13 billion) of bonds in coming weeks, may need to turn to the IMF in the absence of European aid, Prime Minister George Papandreou said on March 19. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates that Greece may ultimately get aid from the IMF worth about 20 billion euros over 18 months, according to an e-mailed note today. The Greek government is counting on wage cuts and tax increases to shave the deficit to 8.7 percent of gross domestic product this year from 12.7 percent in 2009, the highest in the euro’s 11-year history. EU Limits While the euro’s German-designed “stability pact” foresees financial penalties for countries that go over the limits, no country has been sanctioned since the currency debuted in 1999. The budget deficits of all 16 euro nations are forecast to exceed the EU’s limit of 3 percent of GDP this year. Merkel has left open the possibility of pushing wayward countries out of the euro and sought a rewrite of European treaties to impose more fiscal rectitude. All 27 EU countries would have to back such an overhaul. The EU’s latest treaty, in force since December, took eight years to negotiate and ratify. “We are facing an hour of truth,” said Laurens Jan Brinkhorst , a former deputy Dutch prime minister who now teaches at the University of Leiden. “The stability pact has to be reinvented and this time strengthened. The uncertainty is whether the whole union is ready for that.” As the clock ticked toward the EU’s self-imposed pre-summit deadline to clarify what can be done for Greece, the EU’s central authorities chipped away at German resistance to setting up an aid mechanism under sole European management. European Lead? “We prefer a euro-area facility for a European problem and there needs to be a European lead and a policy conditionality decided by the European Union,” EU Economic and Monetary Commissioner Olli Rehn said yesterday. Germany opposes holding a separate meeting of leaders of euro countries before the Brussels summit starts, and it’s possible that all countries won’t sign up to an official statement on Greece, a German official told reporters in Berlin yesterday. Germany envisions a contingency plan for Greece that involves the IMF, with contributions from all other euro-area countries, the official said, without giving details. As the EU wrestled over what to do for Greece, a decision by Fitch Ratings to reduce Portugal’s credit grade stirred concern that the crisis will escalate. Fitch Ratings cut Portugal one step to AA-, calling a budget deficit that swelled to 9.3 percent of GDP last year a “sizeable fiscal shock.” To contact the reporter on this story: James G. Neuger in Brussels at jneuger@bloomberg.net

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Merkel Says IMF, EU Loans to Greece Should Be Last Resort if Default Looms

March 25, 2010

By James G. Neuger March 25 (Bloomberg) — Germany will press today to end weeks of European haggling over an aid package for debt-laden Greece, seeking new rules to impose fiscal discipline on countries using the euro to buttress the faltering currency. Asserting Germany’s clout as the European Union’s largest economy, Chancellor Angela Merkel ruled out an aid decision at today’s EU summit in Brussels, pushing for the International Monetary Fund to be part of any rescue, and called for tougher penalties on future deficit violators. “The German strategy for the next couple of months is very simple: provide just enough positive rhetoric that investors continue to purchase Greek bonds,” said Peter Zeihan , an analyst at Stratfor , a geopolitical risk consultancy in Austin, Texas. “On the flip side, they want to make sure via rhetoric that there’s just enough doubt that the markets demand a much higher spread than the Greeks are hoping for. The Germans want to make very sure that the Greeks are punished.” Squabbling over Greece and concern that fiscal woes will engulf Portugal, which was stung by a debt downgrade by Fitch Ratings yesterday, sent the euro to a 10-month low against the dollar and its weakest ever against the Swiss franc. French officials declined to comment before the summit even as German officials advocated IMF involvement and outlined the price of their helping Greece cut the biggest EU budget deficit . In an effort to shape the European debate, Merkel made a last- minute decision to outline Germany’s stance to the Bundestag at 9:30 a.m. Berlin time today before heading to Brussels. Weaker Euro The summit starts at 5 p.m., though at the last meeting on Feb. 11 a Greek accord was struck before the official start. The euro, which slumped 1.4 percent to a 10-month low against the dollar yesterday, rose 0.1 percent to $1.3327 at 7:11 a.m. in London. It fell to 1.4271 Swiss francs, the weakest since the euro started in 1999. Central bankers led the charge against an IMF option. An appeal to the Washington-based lender of last resort would be “detrimental to the stability” of the 16-nation currency because it would show that Europe is unable to keep its own house in order, European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said. “The image of the euro would be that of a currency that is able to survive only with the external support of an international organization,” Bini Smaghi told Germany’s Die Zeit newspaper yesterday. Greek bonds fell yesterday, pushing the 10-year yield up 6 basis points to 6.36 percent, 330 basis points above comparable German debt. That extra borrowing cost has risen from 273 basis points on Feb. 11 when the EU vowed “determined and coordinated action” to stanch the crisis. Borrowing Costs Greece isn’t seeking EU handouts, government spokesman George Petalotis said on state-run NET TV. The goal for the summit is “European solidarity” that will help bring down Greek borrowing costs, he said. Greece, which needs to sell about 10 billion euros ($13 billion) of bonds in coming weeks, may need to turn to the IMF in the absence of European aid, Prime Minister George Papandreou said on March 19. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates that Greece may ultimately get aid from the IMF worth about 20 billion euros over 18 months, according to an e-mailed note today. The Greek government is counting on wage cuts and tax increases to shave the deficit to 8.7 percent of gross domestic product this year from 12.7 percent in 2009, the highest in the euro’s 11-year history. EU Limits While the euro’s German-designed “stability pact” foresees financial penalties for countries that go over the limits, no country has been sanctioned since the currency debuted in 1999. The budget deficits of all 16 euro nations are forecast to exceed the EU’s limit of 3 percent of GDP this year. Merkel has left open the possibility of pushing wayward countries out of the euro and sought a rewrite of European treaties to impose more fiscal rectitude. All 27 EU countries would have to back such an overhaul. The EU’s latest treaty, in force since December, took eight years to negotiate and ratify. “We are facing an hour of truth,” said Laurens Jan Brinkhorst , a former deputy Dutch prime minister who now teaches at the University of Leiden. “The stability pact has to be reinvented and this time strengthened. The uncertainty is whether the whole union is ready for that.” As the clock ticked toward the EU’s self-imposed pre-summit deadline to clarify what can be done for Greece, the EU’s central authorities chipped away at German resistance to setting up an aid mechanism under sole European management. European Lead? “We prefer a euro-area facility for a European problem and there needs to be a European lead and a policy conditionality decided by the European Union,” EU Economic and Monetary Commissioner Olli Rehn said yesterday. Germany opposes holding a separate meeting of leaders of euro countries before the Brussels summit starts, and it’s possible that all countries won’t sign up to an official statement on Greece, a German official told reporters in Berlin yesterday. Germany envisions a contingency plan for Greece that involves the IMF, with contributions from all other euro-area countries, the official said, without giving details. As the EU wrestled over what to do for Greece, a decision by Fitch Ratings to reduce Portugal’s credit grade stirred concern that the crisis will escalate. Fitch Ratings cut Portugal one step to AA-, calling a budget deficit that swelled to 9.3 percent of GDP last year a “sizeable fiscal shock.” To contact the reporter on this story: James G. Neuger in Brussels at jneuger@bloomberg.net

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Hotel CMBS Defaults May Hit 30% By 2012

March 24, 2010

The dismal performance of U.S. hotels since their peak of 2008 has Fitch Ratings predicting that defaults should double from current levels by 2012. Hotel defaults will be most pronounced in 2011 and 2012 when the largest concentration of loan maturities…

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European Leaders Tussle Over Greek IMF Aid as ECB Warns of Effect on Euro

March 24, 2010

By James G. Neuger and Tony Czuczka March 24 (Bloomberg) — European Union leaders quarreled over possible financial aid for Greece, with a central banker saying that Germany’s plea for an International Monetary Fund role would undermine confidence in the euro. With 24 hours before EU leaders gather in Brussels for a two-day summit, Germany sees growing support for an IMF role, a government official told reporters in Berlin on condition of anonymity. Chancellor Angela Merkel still rules out a summit decision on aid and questions whether the European Union will unite behind a joint statement, the official said. An IMF financial backstop “can only be an exception in this specific situation that would only be used in the worst of events,” German Deputy Finance Minister Steffen Kampeter said in an interview in Berlin today. Squabbling over Greece and concern that fiscal woes will engulf Portugal, whose debt was downgraded by Fitch Ratings today, sent the euro to a 10-month low against the dollar and an all-time low against the Swiss franc. An appeal to the Washington-based IMF would be “detrimental to the stability” of the 16-nation currency because it would show that Europe is unable to keep its own house in order, European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said. ‘Able to Survive’ “The image of the euro would be that of a currency that is able to survive only with the external support of an international organization,” Bini Smaghi told Germany’s Die Zeit newspaper . The euro slipped as much as 1.1 percent to $1.3333, the lowest since May 2009. It fell for a ninth day against the Swiss franc, touching 1.4233 euros per franc, the weakest since the currency union’s 1999 debut. While a German official said yesterday that agreement with France had been reached on involving the IMF in any aid role for Greece, Kampeter suggested the two have yet to reach an accord. He said only that they share a common stance on the need to use the IMF’s “technical support” to monitor Greece’s deficit- cutting progress. The Greek government is banking on wage cuts and tax increases to shave the deficit to 8.7 percent of gross domestic product this year from 12.7 percent in 2009, the highest in the euro’s 11-year history. Under EU rules, governments are required to keep their budget deficits below 3 percent of GDP. While the EU can penalize countries for breaching those rules, no country has been sanctioned since the euro was started in 1999. ‘First Serious Hurdle’ “Europe has failed to clear its first serious hurdle,” UBS Investment Bank deputy head of global economics Paul Donovan told Bloomberg Radio. “If Europe can’t solve a small problem like this, how on earth is it going to solve the larger problem, which is the euro doesn’t work.” French President Nicolas Sarkozy , who met today in Paris with EU president Herman Van Rompuy , has opposed an IMF option. Sarkozy’s spokesman, Franck Louvrier , didn’t return a phone call and an e-mail asking whether Sarkozy has fallen in line with Germany. With EU leaders preparing to converge on Brussels, the EU’s central authorities chipped away at German resistance to setting up an aid mechanism under European management. “We prefer a euro-area facility for a European problem and there needs to be a European lead and a policy conditionality decided by the European Union,” EU Economic and Monetary Commissioner Olli Rehn told a press conference. Leaders of euro countries won’t hold a separate meeting before the 5 p.m. start of the Brussels summit, and it’s possible that all countries won’t sign up to an official statement on Greece, the German official told reporters. German Preference Germany envisions a contingency plan for Greece that involves the IMF with contributions from all other euro-area countries, the official said, without giving details. In an effort to shape the European debate, Merkel made a last-minute decision to outline Germany’s stance to the Bundestag tomorrow morning before heading to Brussels. Merkel is pressing for stiffer sanctions on deficit violators and has raised the specter of underperforming countries leaving the euro, although the German official said that threat isn’t aimed at Greece. Some of the German proposals may require changes to EU treaties. The EU’s latest treaty, in effect since December, took nine years to negotiate and ratify. “The euro area’s ability to impose the rules that it already has have been inadequate,” said David Mackie , chief European economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “In some sense you have to bring someone in who does a better job of it. The existing rule book has failed otherwise we wouldn’t be in this mess.” ‘Solidarity’ Summit Greece isn’t seeking EU handouts, government spokesman George Petalotis said on state-run NET TV. The goal for the summit is “European solidarity” that will help bring down Greek borrowing costs, he said. Greek 10-year bond yields rose 1 basis point to 6.31 percent at 2:30 p.m. Brussels time, 321 basis points above comparable German debt. That extra cost has risen from 273 basis points on Feb. 11 when the EU first vowed “determined and coordinated action” to stanch the crisis. Greece, which needs to sell about 10 billion euros ($13 billion) of bonds in coming weeks, is a step away from not being able to borrow and may need to turn to the IMF in the absence of European aid, Prime Minister George Papandreou said on March 19. As the EU wrestled over what to do for Greece, a decision by Fitch Ratings to reduce Portugal’s credit grade stirred concern that the crisis will escalate. Fitch Ratings cut Portugal one step to AA-, calling a budget deficit that swelled to 9.3 percent of GDP last year, three times the EU limit, a “sizeable fiscal shock.” To contact the reporters on this story: James G. Neuger in Brussels at jneuger@bloomberg.net ; Tony Czuczka in Berlin at aczuczka@bloomberg.net

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Portugal Downgraded to AA- by Fitch on Concern Over Mounting Debt Burden

March 24, 2010

By Matthew Brown March 24 (Bloomberg) — Portugal’s credit grade was cut by Fitch Ratings, underscoring growing concern that Europe’s weakest economies will struggle to meet their debt commitments as finances deteriorate. The rating was lowered one step to AA- with a “negative” outlook, Fitch said in a statement today. The euro extended its decline, weakening 1.1 percent to $1.3355 as of 10:32 a.m. in London. Portuguese bonds fell, with the yield on the 10-year note rising 5 basis points to 4.33 percent. Portugal’s PSI-20 Index of stocks dropped 2 percent. Euro-region governments in the so-called peripheral nations, including Greece, Ireland, Italy and Spain, are seeking to narrow budget deficits that have exceeded the European Union’s 3 percent limit by as much as four times. Portugal’s gross domestic product per capita and trend growth are “significantly below” what is typical for a AA country, reducing its ability to tolerate the global economic downturn, Fitch said. “A sizeable fiscal shock against a backdrop of relative macroeconomic and structural weaknesses has reduced Portugal’s creditworthiness,” Douglas Renwick, associate director at Fitch, wrote in the report from London. “Although Portugal has not been disproportionately affected by the global downturn, prospects for economic recovery are weaker than 15 European Union peers, which will put pressure on its public finances over the medium term.” Deficit Plans Portugal is planning to cut its budget deficit to 8.3 percent of gross domestic product this year from last year’s 9.3 percent. The government predicted economic growth in 2010 of 0.7 percent after a decline last year depressed tax revenue. “Portugal’s downgrade underlines the problems in the European Union,” said Paul Robinson , a currency strategist at Barclays Capital in London. “People are worried about the fiscal situation in the southern European economies and the prospects for those economies.” The cost of protecting against losses on Portugal sovereign debt rose to the highest in almost a month, according to CMA DataVision prices for credit-default swaps. Five-year contracts insuring $10 million of bonds increased $6,000 a year to $140,000. Swaps rise as perceptions of credit quality worsen. Today’s downgrade for Portugal is the first by Fitch since 1998, and puts it one level below the Aa2 rating assigned to it by Moody’s Investors Service. The last time Portugal’s credit was lowered was on Jan. 21, 2009, when Standard & Poor’s cut it to A+, two steps lower than Moody’s and one step below the level Fitch gave it today. To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Brown in London at mbrown42@bloomberg.net

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Fitch Downgrades FMC Real Estate CDO 2005-1; Assigns Outlooks, LS & RR Ratings

March 19, 2010

Fitch Ratings has downgraded all classes of FMC Real Estate CDO 2005-1 Ltd. (FMC 2005-1) reflecting Fitch’s base case loss expectation of regarding commercial real estate market value and cash flow declines. A detailed list of rating actions

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Fitch Downgrades Guggenheim 2006-4; Assigns Outlooks, LS & RR Ratings

March 18, 2010

NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Fitch Ratings has downgraded 10 classes of Guggenheim Structured Real Estate Funding 2006-4 Ltd./LLC (Guggenheim 2006-4) reflecting Fitch’s base case loss expectation of 39.7%. Fitch’s performance expectation incorporates

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Cheyne Capital Bets on U.K. Property Rally With Lower-Rated Mortgage Debt

March 12, 2010

By Esteban Duarte March 12 (Bloomberg) — Cheyne Capital Management (U.K.) LLP, a hedge fund firm which oversees $5.5 billion, is betting on an improvement in Britain’s real estate market. Cheyne is boosting the allocation of lower-rated mortgage debt in its Queen’s Walk Investment Ltd. fund in expectation home-loan defaults will continue to decline, partner Shamez Alibhai said in an interview. Queen’s Walk invests most of its 120 million euros in mortgage-backed securities. “After strong profits from investments on triple-A residential MBS we are moving down the structures of the transactions,” Alibhai said. Queen’s Walk sold 3.4 million euros of AAA rated notes with an equivalent annual profit of 28 percent, the fund said yesterday in its fourth-quarter results. The U.K. property market is rebounding after its worst slump since the early 1990s, with Bank of England data showing mortgage approvals close to a one-year high in December. Delinquencies of more than 90 days on higher-risk, non- conforming mortgages declined to 18.6 percent in the last three months of 2009 compared with 19 percent at the end of September, according to Fitch Ratings. Cheyne is focusing its purchases on debt backed by non- conforming and buy-to-let mortgages, loans which the mortgage holder repays using rental income, Alibhai said. Queen’s Walk is also buying the mezzanine portions of bonds backed by mortgages on commercial property, he said. “Now we are buying double-A and single-A notes, usually located at the mezzanine portions of the deals, at an average price of 44 cents,” Alibhai said. The rankings are the third and sixth highest investment grades. So-called mezzanine pieces of issues sold by Northern Rock Plc, among the most liquid of mortgage-collateralized debt, rose 10 cents so far this year, compared with 1 cent for the top- rated portions, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Northern Rock was nationalized in 2008 after depositors withdrew funds on concern the Newcastle, England-based bank had borrowed too much using mortgages as collateral. Banks create mortgage-backed securities by pooling home loans and selling them to investors as notes with varying risk and returns. To contact the reporter on this story: Esteban Duarte in Madrid at eduarterubia@bloomberg.net

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CMBS Outlook: Multifamily Still Stressed; Retail Half Way There

March 3, 2010

While multifamily vacancy rates are expected to stabilize in certain markets, Fitch Ratings’ outlook for the sector in the near-term remains negative. Although vacancy rates are expected to reach their peak of 8.9% in 2010, rents will take longer to recover…

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Credit Default Swaps Show Kazakhstan Beating California: Chart of the Day

March 1, 2010

By Michael B. Marois March 1 (Bloomberg) — Bill Lockyer compared California , the world’s eighth-largest economy , to Kazakhstan, the Central Asian oil exporter whose gross domestic product is one-sixteenth as large, to demonstrate that bonds sold by the state treasurer will be repaid even as legislators try to close a $20 billion budget gap. While “California has never missed a general obligation bond payment in its entire history,” according to Lockyer’s spokesman, Tom Dresslar , this CHART OF THE DAY shows that California 5-year credit default swaps cost 100 basis points more than those of Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s biggest energy producer. The derivative contracts are insurance agreements generally used to protect bondholders against default. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. “We’re not bankrupt,” Lockyer told lawmakers at a hearing in Sacramento on Feb. 24. “We’re not going to be bankrupt.” Lockyer, 68, plans to sell as much as $5 billion of municipal debt starting the week of March 8 , as California, which accounts for about 13 percent of U.S. gross domestic product, faces a $20 billion budget deficit during the next 16 months. State Controller John Chiang has warned he may need to pay bills with IOUs for the second consecutive year. Kazakhstan and California, the lowest-rated U.S. state, share a Baa1 ranking, three steps above non-investment grade, from Moody’s Investors Service. California was given a BBB by Fitch Ratings and A- by Standard & Poor’s, four levels above non-investment grade. Both companies rate Kazakhstan lower, at BBB-, one step above high-risk, high-yield junk. The cost of California’s credit default swaps has risen 90 percent since October, to $303,000 to protect an investment in $10 million of bonds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Kazakhstan’s takeover of BTA Bank , the country’s largest at the time, helped push the cost of such swaps linked to government debt to a peak of 1,650 basis points on Feb. 24, 2009. To contact the reporter on this story: Michael B. Marois in Sacramento at mmarois@bloomberg.net

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AIG Extends Support to ILFC, Consumer Lender for Third Time, Until 2011

February 26, 2010

By Jamie McGee and Susanna Ray Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) — American International Group Inc. extended for the third time the period in which it is committed to supporting plane-leasing and consumer-lending units. AIG said in its annual report today it “intends to provide support” to International Lease Finance Corp. and American General Finance Corp. through Feb. 28, 2011, if needed, more than three months later than the date the company gave in its third-quarter filing in November. AIG, which is selling businesses to help repay bailout loans, previously announced three-month extensions in both August and November of last year. ILFC and American General lost access to their usual financing sources, including commercial paper and unsecured debt, after downgrades of New York-based AIG, which needed a $182.3 billion U.S. rescue after losing bets on home loans. The units had been downgraded in the past three months on the prospect AIG would decline to extend support past November. “At some point, the reality is that it has to stand on its own,” Howard Rubel , an aerospace analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, said of ILFC before today’s announcement. The Los Angeles-based plane unit is among the biggest customers for both Boeing Co. and Airbus SAS . ILFC said this week it was seeking a bank loan of as much as $750 million secured against its fleet. AIG used bailout funds to prop up ILFC with a $1.7 billion credit line in March and $2 billion in October. ‘Restructuring Opportunities’ “We continue to address the funding needs and are exploring strategic restructuring opportunities for International Lease Finance Corporation and American General Finance,” AIG Chief Executive Officer Robert Benmosche said today in a statement. Credit-default swaps on ILFC rose 0.5 percentage point to 9.5 percent upfront, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group. That means it would cost $950,000 upfront and $500,000 a year to protect $10 million of ILFC obligations from default for five years, up from $900,000 yesterday. Swaps on AIG were unchanged at 2 percent upfront. The plane unit may sell aircraft, Benmosche said this month in announcing the departure of ILFC CEO Steve Udvar-Hazy , who founded the company 37 years ago and then sold it to the insurer. Private-equity groups had backed Udvar-Hazy in an attempt to buy as much as a $4.5 billion chunk of ILFC’s fleet to start a firm, people with knowledge of the matter said in October. “ILFC does have a lot of unencumbered assets, aircraft, so that’s one possible way they could raise funds,” said Craig Fraser , aerospace analyst at Fitch Ratings, before today’s announcement. “Aircraft are still attractive assets to support financing.” Ratings Downgrades Standard & Poor’s downgraded ILFC last month on concern AIG may take “several years” to sell the business. AIG has struck deals to divest more than 20 businesses including a U.S. auto insurer and Canadian mortgage guarantor. ILFC had more than $6.7 billion of debt maturing in 2010, AIG said in the filing. For Evansville, Indiana-based American General, the figure was more than $6.5 billion. “We would not hang our hat on support, and we would approach American General as a standalone entity at this point,” said Adam Steer , an analyst at CreditSights Inc. in New York, in an interview before today’s announcement. The consumer lender cut more than 1,000 jobs last year, scaled back lending, closed branches and sold mortgage-backed certificates to Credit Suisse Group AG. AIG made a $600 million capital contribution to American General last year. ‘Confident in the Future’ AIG posted a fourth-quarter net loss of $8.87 billion today on charges tied to paying down its bailout debt and boosting commercial insurance reserves. ILFC’s operating profit rose 66 percent to $344 million after the unit expanded its fleet and borrowing costs fell. American General had an operating loss of $309 million on a drop in finance-charge revenue and higher provisions for loan losses. ILFC had more than $26 billion in borrowing through bonds and bank debt as of Dec. 31, AIG said today. American General had more than $20 billion in outstanding debt. “We also remain confident in the future of the International Lease Finance Corporation as a leader in its market segment,” Benmosche said in a separate statement posted on the insurer’s Web site. American General “is a well run business and we continue to explore a variety of options to protect its value and meet its obligations.” To contact the reporters on this story: Jamie McGee in New York at jmcgee8@bloomberg.net ; Susanna Ray in Seattle at sray7@bloomberg.net .

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