fitch-ratings

Video: Coulton Reaffirms Fitch’s `Negative’ Outlook on Greece: Video

February 26, 2010

Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) — Brian Coulton, an analyst at Fitch Ratings, talks with Bloomberg’s Mike McKee about Greece’s credit rating and outlook. Coulton speaks from London. (Source: Bloomberg)

Read the full article →

Moody’s Says Greece Risks Downgrade Within Months If Fiscal Plan Is Missed

February 24, 2010

By Keiko Ujikane and Aki Ito Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) — Greece may see its sovereign debt rating cut within months should it fail to meet the objectives in its fiscal deficit reduction plan, Moody’s Investors Service said. “If in a few months it appears there are significant deviations from the plan, then it is pretty likely that we would adjust the rating accordingly,” Pierre Cailleteau, managing director of sovereign risk at the ratings company, said in an interview in Tokyo today. Such a departure may merit a cut of “a couple of notches,” he said. Cailleteau spoke a day after Standard & Poor’s said it may lower Greece’s credit rating again by the end of March as a weak economy and political opposition threaten the country’s ability to cut the European Union’s largest budget deficit. At the same time, Moody’s may stabilize the A2 rating should Greece follow through with its austerity measures, Cailleteau said. Greece’s fiscal position is unchanged from December, when Moody’s cut the debt rating to A2, he said. Moody’s rating of Greece is the sixth highest, two notches above the BBB+ held by Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings. If Moody’s cuts its credit rating to the same level as the other major ratings companies, Greek government bonds would no longer be eligible as collateral at the European Central Bank, making it more difficult for the nation to borrow. To contact the reporter on this story: Keiko Ujikane in Tokyo at kujikane@bloomberg.net Aki Ito in Tokyo at aito16@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

New South Wales May Get $2.7 Billion for Power Companies, Citigroup Says

February 20, 2010

By James Paton Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) — The Australian state of New South Wales, which this week delayed its planned sale of power assets, may raise A$3 billion ($2.7 billion) by selling three electricity retail businesses, Citigroup Inc. said. Any sale isn’t likely to be completed until the end of this year or early next year, Marie Miyashiro , a Citigroup analyst in Sydney, said in a Feb. 19 report. The government last September set a target to complete the sale in this half. EnergyAustralia, one of the three businesses, has 1.4 million customers, while Country Energy has more than 800,000, according to their Web sites. Origin Energy Ltd. and AGL Energy Ltd. , Australia’s biggest electricity and gas retailers, could boost earnings through a retailer acquisition, Citigroup said. “In the retail business, it’s all about economies of scale,” Steve Durose , an analyst at Fitch Ratings in Sydney, said today by phone. “Both of them will be interested in the retail side. That’s a no-brainer.” The state expects to complete the sale of the power assets later this year after allowing groups to begin the study of finances toward the middle of 2010, Treasurer Eric Roozendaal said Feb. 18. Origin Energy was disappointed by the delay, the Sydney-based company said Feb. 18. TRUenergy Pty, the Australian retailer owned by Hong Kong-based CLP Holdings Ltd., also has said it may bid. ‘Proving Complex’ NSW aims to sell the three retailers as well as new generator development sites. It also plans to contract the right to sell power produced by state-owned generators to private trading companies, a process that is “proving complex,” Citigroup’s Miyashiro said in the report. “We are of the view that at the very least, the retail assets should be privatized on their own,” she said. “We would view the government’s failure to privatize at least the retail portion of their energy assets as a negative for the utilities sector as a whole.” The total assets, including the retailers, may be worth about A$6 billion, Gavin Madson , Brisbane-based director of the energy and utilities team of Fitch Ratings, estimated last year. The state said it aims to introduce at least one new entrant to the New South Wales market and would consider an initial public offering for some of the assets should attractive bids fail to emerge. After a series of delays, “it’s going to happen this year,” Fitch’s Durose said. The sale would allow New South Wales to focus on providing health, education and transportation services at a time of declining revenue, the government said March 5 last year. New South Wales scaled back the plan after a proposal to sell the state-owned power stations was blocked. To contact the reporter on this story: James Paton in Sydney at jpaton4@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Video: Fitch’s Rawkins Says EU Failed to Ease Greek Debt Crisis

February 12, 2010

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) — Paul Rawkins, a senior director at Fitch Ratings, talks with Bloomberg’s Maryam Nemazee about whether Greece can meet its committment to cut its debt.

Read the full article →

Jumbo Mortgage `Serious Delinquencies’ Rose to 9.6% Last Month, Fitch Says

February 8, 2010

By Jody Shenn Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) — U.S. prime jumbo mortgages backing securities at least 60 days late rose to 9.6 percent in January from 9.2 percent in December, the 32nd straight increase for “serious delinquencies,” according to Fitch Ratings. “The trend line for delinquencies indicates the 10 percent level could be reached as early as next month,” Vincent Barberio, a Fitch managing director in New York, said today in a statement. The rate of non-performing loans almost tripled in 2009. Jumbo home-loans are larger than government-supported mortgage companies Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac can finance. Their limits now range from $417,000 in most places to as much as $729,750 in high-cost areas. To contact the reporter on this story: Jody Shenn in New York at jshenn@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Connecticut Kleen Energy Plant Explodes, Causing 2 Deaths, `Mass’ Injuries

February 7, 2010

By Pete Young and Christopher Martin Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) — An explosion and fire ripped through the Kleen Energy Systems natural gas-fired power plant near Middletown, Connecticut, killing at least two workers and causing “mass injuries,” according to the city’s police department. “We’ve had at least two fatalities and a lot of serious injuries,” said George Yepes, a Middletown police officer, in a phone interview. “We’re sending in emergency teams from around the state.” The Hartford Courant, citing witnesses and emergency personnel, was reporting as many as 100 people were injured. Nearby homes were damaged, New Haven-based WTNH-TV reported. The explosion occurred at about 11:30 a.m. local time, Fire Department Commissioner Bill Gregory said today in a phone interview. Crews are working to put out the blaze, he said. “This is still a working fire scene,” Gregory said. “We’ll know more once we get the blaze out.” Nearby homes were also damaged, WTNH-TV reported. Plant manager Gordon Holk didn’t immediately respond to calls to his office. The contractor on the project was listed as O&G Industries, whose Web site says it is a closely held company based in Torrington, Connecticut. Kleen Energy Systems LLC is majority-owned by Energy Investors Funds Group. The company is constructing a natural gas-fired, 620 megawatt facility to feed electricity to Northeast Utilities ’ Connecticut Light & Power under a 15-year power purchase agreement, according to a report by Fitch Ratings on Nov. 20. Algonquin Gas Transmission Co. is the gas supplier to the plant, Fitch said. The plant’s turbines are manufactured by Siemens Power Generation, according to Fitch. To contact the reporter on this story: Pete Young in New York at pyoung13@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Picking up pieces at Stuyvesant Town

January 31, 2010

out the mess at Stuy Town won’t be simple, and it won’t be fast. More Residential Real Estate Headlines Filed Under : Daniel Garodnick, Deutsche Bank, Donald Trump, Fitch Ratings, Jerry Speyer, MetLife, Small Business, Stuyvesant Town / Peter Cooper

Read the full article →

KKR Said to Raise $676 Million in Leveraged Loans for Pets at Home Buyout

January 29, 2010

By Patricia Kuo Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. got 485 million pounds ($676 million) of leveraged loans for its buyout of U.K. retailer Pets at Home Ltd., two people familiar with the situation said. The acquisition debt represents about five times Pets at Home’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda, the people said. Nomura Holdings Inc., Calyon and KKR Capital Markets arranged the debt package, KKR said Jan. 27. Private equity companies are returning to the leveraged buyout market for the first time in more than two years after access to finance dried up during the credit crisis. Buyout firms announced $47.6 billion of takeovers in the second half of last year, up 50 percent from the first half, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. An external spokesman in London for KKR declined to comment. The Pets at Home funding comprises a 75 million-pound six- year term loan paying interest of 450 basis points over the London interbank offered rate; 245 million pounds of seven-year loans priced at 500 basis points over Libor; and a 30-million pound revolving credit due in six years with a spread of 450 basis points. There is also 135 million pounds of mezzanine debt. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. KKR said this week it agreed to buy Handforth, England- based Pets at Home from Bridgepoint Capital Ltd. to tap the U.K.’s spending on feeding and housing cats, dogs and other domestic animals. Bridgepoint paid 230 million pounds for the chain six years ago. Debt used to fund European leveraged buyouts averaged as high as seven times the acquired companies’ Ebitda in the second half of 2007, up from about 5 times in 2004, according to Fitch Ratings. In a revolving credit, money can be borrowed again once it’s repaid; in a term loan, it can’t. To contact the reporter on this story: Patricia Kuo in London at pkuo2@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

American Express, Capital One Shares Tumble As New Credit Card Rules Near

January 22, 2010

NEW YORK — Shares of American Express and Capital One Financial Corp. tumbled Friday after an analyst noted coming credit card regulations could strain profits for the companies in the year ahead. American Express shares dropped $3.57, or 8.5 percent, to close at $38.59. Capital One shares sank $5.17, or 12.1 percent, to close at $37.53. In a note to investors, FBR Capital Markets analyst Scott Valentin wrote that the card industry will shrink as issuers cope with elevated chargeoff levels, higher marketing costs and new regulations. He noted that Capital One could experience the biggest contraction, given its portfolio of subprime borrowers. American Express, which traditionally caters to more affluent customers, should be less affected, Valentin wrote. Valentin cut his 2010 earnings estimate for American Express to $3.24 per share, from $3.35 per share and for Capital One to $2.25 per share from $2.50 per share. Both companies were affirmed at “market perform.” The Credit CARD Act, which goes into effect Feb. 22, will dramatically limit card issuers’ ability to raise interest rates and impose penalty fees. For example, banks will not be able to raise rates on existing balances unless payments are more than 60 days late. During a conference call Thursday, American Express Chief Financial Officer Dan Henry noted that the regulations could lower AmEx’s yields on credit cards, which were at 9.7 percent in the latest quarter. Margins at Capital One are also expected to decline to about 15.5 percent, down from 16 percent, Valentin noted. The drop-off in AmEx and Capital One shares Friday came despite improved fourth-quarter results from both companies. However, the gains came largely as a result of steep drops in provisions for loan losses. At American Express, provisions for loan losses fell 47 percent to $748 million, from $1.4 billion a year ago. At Capital One, the figure sank to $843.7 million from $2.1 billion. Quarterly revenue at American Express, meanwhile, edged lower to $6.49 billion from $6.51 billion last year. While card members’ average balances rose, the gains were offset by higher costs elsewhere. Marketing costs rose 36 percent to $713 million in the quarter. AmEx Chairman Kenneth Chenault said in a statement that while the economic outlook is improving, the company still faces the challenges of high unemployment rates and weaker household finances. Fitch Ratings, meanwhile, issued a report Friday that said chargeoffs, or loans considered unrecoverable, could become more widespread in coming months as consumers continue to struggle with debt and unemployment. The ratings agency doesn’t expect the deterioration to be severe, however. Fitch predicts U.S. unemployment will peak at 10.4 percent in the second-quarter of 2010 and will remain above the 10 percent throughout the year.

Read the full article →

Large Loans Drive CMBS, CDO Delinquencies Higher

January 20, 2010

The transfer of large balance CMBS loans to special servicing continues to increase as commercial property performance declines, according to Fitch Ratings in the latest edition of What’s in Special Servicing?. An additional $1.2 billion of loans in…

Read the full article →

Bank Watch: CRE Loans Hurt Ratings on South Financial Group; Threaten First Midwest’s

January 20, 2010

Fitch Ratings has downgraded the ratings for The South Financial Group Inc. and its principal bank subsidiary, Carolina First Bank, including the long-term issuer default rating to ‘B-’ from ‘B+.’ Fitch’s downgrade of South Financial’s ratings follows…

Read the full article →

Cerberus’s LNR Property Said to Hire Lazard for Debt-Restructuring Advice

January 14, 2010

By Jonathan Keehner and Brian Louis Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) — LNR Property Corp. , the real-estate finance company owned by Cerberus Capital Management LP, hired advisers to help restructure as much as $1 billion of debt and prepare for a possible bankruptcy filing, said people familiar with the matter. Lazard Ltd. is advising LNR on its options, while law firm Dewey LeBoeuf LLP would represent the company in any bankruptcy reorganization, said the people, who declined to be identified because the talks are private. A bankruptcy filing isn’t imminent and may not happen, the people said. “Private-equity-led consortiums will be circling LNR,” said Ben Thypin, senior market analyst at Real Capital Analytics, a New York-based research firm. “This opens a potentially big door into the sale of troubled commercial real estate and loans, which is being targeted by billions of dollars of new investment capital.” Real estate finance companies have struggled after delinquencies on loans packaged and sold as commercial mortgage- backed securities rose to a record. LNR, which was spun off from U.S. homebuilder Lennar Corp . in 1997, was handling almost a fourth of the loans bundled into securities that were turned over to a servicer for a workout or resolution as of Sept. 30, according to Fitch Ratings. At that time, there were about $60 billion of U.S. loans packaged into commercial mortgage-backed securities in special servicing. Talking to Advisers LNR’s largest creditors, including Oaktree Capital Management LLC , also are talking to advisers about restructuring the Miami Beach, Florida-based company’s debts, said two of the people. Jen Brown , a spokeswoman for LNR, and representatives of Cerberus, Lazard, Dewey LeBoeuf and Oaktree declined to comment. LNR had its credit rating reduced to Ca by Moody’s Investors Service in November, partly because a lack of credit in the commercial real estate market led to a drop in collectable fees. The downgrade, which was sparked by “the rapid deterioration in LNR’s liquidity profile, and the fact that LNR’s plans for backup liquidity remain unclear,” affected about $900 million of debt, according to Moody’s. U.S. commercial property prices have plunged more than 40 percent from their October 2007 peak, while the default rate on commercial mortgages more than doubled in the third quarter of 2009 to 3.4 percent from a year earlier, according to data compiled by Moody’s and Real Estate Econometrics. Capmark’s Filing Capmark Financial Group Inc., an LNR competitor, filed for bankruptcy in October. A joint venture of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and New York-based Leucadia National Corp. bought Capmark’s loan servicing and mortgage-lending business last month for about $468 million. LNR in 2005 was bought by a company 75 percent owned by Cerberus and its real estate affiliate Blackacre Institutional Capital Management LLC and co-investors. Cerberus, founded by former Drexel Burnham Lambert Inc. banker Stephen Feinberg in 1992, has struggled with private- equity investments such as its takeover of Chrysler LLC and a majority stake in GMAC Inc. To contact the reporters on this story: Jonathan Keehner in New York at jkeehner@bloomberg.net ; Brian Louis in Chicago at blouis1@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

GIC-Invested Stuyvesant Town Said to Face Foreclosure After Missed Payment

January 12, 2010

By David M. Levitt Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) — Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village debt holders demanded payment from Tishman Speyer Properties LP and BlackRock Inc. within 10 days, a step toward foreclosing for New York’s largest apartment complex, said two people familiar with the matter. A group led by Winthrop Realty Trust which holds about $300 million in senior mezzanine debt said in a letter it intends to pursue “rights and remedies” including a foreclosure sale, according to the correspondence. The parties could act within 90 to 180 days, said the people. “The sharks are circling in the waters,” said New York City Councilman Daniel Garodnick , a Peter Cooper Village resident as well as its council representative. “This is a point of great concern.” Tishman Speyer and Blackrock missed a $16.1 million payment on the apartments last week. Their plans to cover the debt by raising rents were thwarted Oct. 22 when the state’s highest court ruled in favor of tenants who claimed some increases were illegal. Tishman Speyer and BlackRock paid $5.4 billion for Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper’s 11,200 apartments in 2006. In October, Fitch Ratings valued the property at $1.8 billion. New York City Housing Preservation and Development Commissioner Rafael Cestero said Jan. 8 that the city’s “overriding concern” was to keep rents within reach of “the hardworking middle-class families of New York.” Local officials must make good on that pledge, Garodnick said. The city should consider providing tax-exempt financing or other assistance, he said. Urging Action “We cannot simply let this opportunity slip away,” Garodnick said. Bud Perrone , a spokesman for New York-based Tishman Speyer, declined to comment yesterday. Tishman Speyer and BlackRock, also based in New York, each invested $112.5 million in Stuyvesant Town out of total equity financing of $1.9 billion. They took out a $3 billion mortgage from Wachovia Bank and $1.4 billion of mezzanine debt. The mortgage was packaged with other commercial properties loans and sold as securities. The biggest holders are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the U.S. government-owned home-loan finance companies. Other investors include the Government of Singapore Investment Corp., manager of more than $100 billion of the city- state’s foreign reserves. GIC reported losses from its investment yesterday. General reserves of $190 million on Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper are depleted. A debt service reserve of $400 million, which Tishman Speyer had used for payments, dwindled to $5.64 million as of December, according to credit-rating company Realpoint LP. Contents of the letter about a possible foreclosure were reported yesterday by the REIT Newshound. To contact the reporter on this story: David M. Levitt in New York at dlevitt@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Fitch: U.S. Debt Still Safely AAA Rated

January 11, 2010

NEW YORK — Fitch Ratings on Monday affirmed its top-rung AAA investment-grade ratings for the United States’ long-term debt, and assigned a stable outlook. Despite looming challenges from the government’s indebtedness, a Fitch analyst said that the near-term risk to the ‘AAA’ status is “minimal.” Brian Coulton cited the U.S.’ “exceptional financing and economic flexibility, and the U.S. dollar’s role as the world’s predominant reserve currency.” Coulton added, “However, difficult decisions will have to be made regarding spending and tax to underpin market confidence in the long-run sustainability of public finances and the commitment to low inflation.” Fitch affirmed AAA ratings for the U.S.’ long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings, or IDRs, with a stable outlook. Fitch also affirmed the U.S.’ country ceiling at ‘AAA’ and the short-term foreign currency rating at F1+, Fitch’s top short-term rating. Coulton said U.S. efforts to lift its economy out of recession through financial rescue and stimulus programs “now appear to be working in terms of restoring stability to the U.S. financial sector and the economy.” However, if deficit-reduction measures don’t take hold over the next three to five years, government indebtedness “will approach levels by the latter half of the decade that will bring pressure to bear on the U.S.’ ‘AAA’ status,” Coulton said. Fitch estimated the general government deficit at 11.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2009, and forecasts 11 percent this year and 8.5 percent next year. That deficit, Fitch said, contains “a sizeable structural component that will not be eliminated by the economic recovery and the unwinding of stimulus measures.”

Read the full article →

REITs Rev Up

January 9, 2010

Investment Analysis Amassing capital in a credit-restricted market topped real estate investment trusts 2009 priority list, with more than $14.4 billion raised in equity issuance and another $6.7 billion in debt, according to Fitch Ratings. For the

Read the full article →

Consumer Credit in U.S. Drops by $17.5 Billion, Biggest Decline on Record

January 8, 2010

By Vincent Del Giudice Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) — Consumer credit in the U.S. dropped a record $17.5 billion in November as unemployment close to a 26- year high discouraged borrowing and banks limited access to loans. The slump in credit to $2.46 trillion was more than anticipated and followed a revised $4.2 billion drop in October, Federal Reserve figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a decrease of $5 billion. The series of 10 straight declines was the longest since record-keeping began in 1943. A labor market that’s shed 7.2 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007 is restraining consumer spending that accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. Fed policy makers have said tighter bank lending standards and reductions in credit lines are hampering the recovery. “Double-digit unemployment is eroding consumer confidence and the uncertainty is prompting consumers to pay down their credit card debts,” said Chris Rupkey , chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “We have not seen such a wholesale reduction in consumer credit since the last time we had double-digit unemployment rate following the early ‘80s recessions.” Stocks were mixed and Treasury two-year notes gained the most in three weeks after the Labor Department said earlier that companies reduced payrolls in December by 85,000 workers after adding 4,000 a month earlier. The unemployment rate held at 10 percent last month. Stocks, Yields The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1 percent to 10,597.33 at 3:41 p.m. in New York. Two-year Treasury yields dropped below 1 percent, to 0.96 percent from 1.02 percent late yesterday. Consumer credit in October was revised from a previously reported $3.5 billion decline, and the forecast for November was based on the median of 32 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from decreases of $2 billion to $10 billion. Credit dropped at an 8.5 percent annual rate in November. Revolving debt , such as credit cards, plunged by a record $13.7 billion in November, the Fed’s statistics showed. Non- revolving debt, including loans for autos and mobile homes, declined by $3.8 billion. The Fed’s report doesn’t cover borrowing secured by real estate. Auto sales in the U.S. climbed in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 10.92 million, up from 10.45 million in October. The pace increased to 11.23 million in December, the strongest since 14.09 million in August, when Americans took advantage of government incentives. Consumer Spending Consumer spending increased in November for the sixth time in seven months as Americans took advantage of discounts during the holidays, Commerce Department figures showed Dec. 23. Faster growth in sales and improvement in households’ balance sheets depends on job creation. “U.S. consumer credit quality remains under considerable stress due to persistently weak labor market conditions,” said Michael Dean, managing director at Fitch Ratings. A report from Fitch on Jan. 5 showed delinquent balances on credit cards at a record level. At American Express Co. , defaults and delinquencies fell to 2009 lows. AmEx was the only one of the “Big 6” credit-card issuers to post November declines in write-offs and delinquencies, the New York-based lender said in a Dec. 15 regulatory filing. Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Brian T. Moynihan has said the largest U.S. lender needs to reduce the loss rate on credit cards, which ranked highest among the nation’s six biggest card companies in November. Bank of America’s card defaults are “still very high,” Moynihan, 50, said. ‘Significant Bubble’ “As an industry, we over-lent and customers over-borrowed, and that led to a fairly significant bubble,” Moynihan said Jan. 4 in an interview on Bloomberg Television in Raleigh, North Carolina. “We have to help lead the economic recovery. At the same time, we have to be responsible lenders.” Banks have responded by tightening credit standards, for consumers and companies. Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke said in a Jan. 4 speech that total loans on banks’ books fell at an annual rate of more than 11 percent in the third quarter. While banks are reducing lines of credit and tightening lending standards, small businesses are also losing their business relationships with banks as firms fail, merge or reduce their loan portfolios, Duke said. Broken Relationships “When existing lending relationships are broken, time may be required for other banks to establish and build such relationships, allowing lending to resume,” Duke said. Britt Beemer , chairman of consumer polling firm America’s Research Group, said in a Dec. 21 interview that if lenders weren’t cutting customer spending limits and rejecting more credit-card applications, holiday sales would have been stronger. December same-store sales climbed 3 percent, the biggest gain since April 2008, Retail Metrics Inc. said yesterday in an e-mailed statement. To contact the reporter on this story: Vincent Del Giudice in Washington vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

ECB, EU to Visit Greece This Week to Discuss Deficit, Greek Official Says

January 4, 2010

By Christos Ziotis and Natalie Weeks Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) — European finance officials will travel to Greece this week to discuss the government’s plans to cut the European Union’s largest budget deficit, a Greek Finance Ministry official said. European Central Bank and European Commission officials will visit Athens on Jan. 6, according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The official also said Greece will submit its plan to push the deficit below the EU’s limit toward the end of January. The commission, the EU executive in Brussels, said it will evaluate Greece’s budget proposal, known as a stability program, in preparation for discussion by EU finance ministers next month. The finance chiefs will meet in Brussels on Feb. 15-16. “We will make our recommendations in time for finance ministers to adopt the opinion for the stability program and the recommendation for deficit in February,” Amelia Torres, spokeswoman for EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia, said today in Brussels. The commission is seeking submission of the plan “as soon as possible,” Torres said. While the deadline is the end of month, Greece has committed to sending it “early in January,” she said. “We will obviously need to assess it.” The government of Prime Minister George Papandreou , which came to power in October promising higher spending and wages, is trying to persuade investors it can cut its deficit from 12.7 percent of output last year, the highest in the 27-nation EU, to below the EU’s 3 percent limit by 2013. Papandreou has said he is determined to turn around the country’s economy and that a default is “simply out of the question.” Three Times Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou last month lifted the 2010 deficit-reduction target to 4 percentage points of gross domestic product from 3.6 points previously. That would lower the deficit next year to 8.7 percent of gross domestic product, still almost three times the EU limit. Greece’s credit rating was cut one level to BBB+ from A-on Dec. 16 by Standard & Poor’s, which threatened further action unless the government tackles the budget shortfall. Fitch Ratings on Dec. 8 cut Greek debt to BBB+. Papandreou said he was determined to cut the deficit without hurting wage-earners and the poor. He vowed to reduce bureaucracy by eliminating two layers of government administration and to clamp down on tax evasion. To contact the reporters on this story: Christos Ziotis in Athens at cziotis@bloomberg.net ; Natalie Weeks in Athens nweeks2@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Greek Liquidity Squeeze `Unlikely’ Unless ECB Tightens Rules, Moody’s Says

December 22, 2009

By John Fraher Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) — Greek banks won’t face liquidity shortages unless the European Central Bank takes the “unusual” step of tightening collateral rules, Moody’s Investors Service said after cutting its rating on the country’s government debt. “Greece is extremely unlikely to face short-term liquidity/refinancing problems unless the ECB decides to take the unusual step of making the sovereign debt of a member state ineligible as collateral for bank repurchase operations,” said Arnaud Mares , Senior Vice President at Moody’s in London. That’s “a risk that we consider very remote.” Further cuts from Moody’s, which lowered Greece to A2 today, would cast doubt on the eligibility of Greek debt at the ECB’s money market operations. Moody’s is the only major rating company grading Greece above BBB+ after cuts from Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings. A downgrade of two more notches would mean Greek bonds won’t be accepted by the ECB if it reverts to its pre-crisis collateral rules in a year’s time. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Dec. 17 that the ECB should revise its collateral rules to end what it says is Moody’s veto over Greek bond eligibility. The ECB currently accepts bonds rated BBB- as collateral after relaxing its rules in response to the financial crisis. ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos said Dec. 18 that Greece will have to fix its budget deficit, currently the highest in the European Union, before rules are tightened again at the end of 2010. Moody’s said Greece can find other means of funding if necessary. “There are potentially other means to mobilize emergency liquidity funding should it be required — but Moody’s does not believe that this will be necessary,” the report said. To contact the reporter on this story: John Fraher in Dublin at jfraher@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Greek Credit Rating Cut to A2 by Moody’s; Bonds Rise on One-Step Downgrade

December 22, 2009

By Anna Rascouet Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) — Greece had its credit rating lowered one step to A2 by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited the government’s “long-term solvency risks.” “The government’s debt problem cannot be resolved by growth alone,” Sarah Carlson , London-based lead sovereign analyst for Greece at Moody’s, wrote today in a statement. The country’s difficulties stem from “chronically weak fiscal institutions, which cast a shadow over the government’s ability to implement decisive fiscal retrenchment in order to restore debt sustainability,” she said. Greek government bonds fell for a fourth day, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note rising above 6 percent for the first time since March. The yield was at 5.99 percent as of 8:13 a.m. in London. Standard & Poor’s cut Greece’s debt rating on Dec. 16 for the second time this year, to BBB+, the third lowest investment- grade level. Fitch Ratings lowered it to the same level Dec. 8. Prime Minister George Papandreou’s government, which came to power in October promising higher spending and wages, is trying to persuade investors it can cut its deficit from 12.7 percent of output to below the European Union’s 3 percent limit by 2013. To contact the reporter on this story: Anna Rascouet in London at arascouet@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Westpac Raises $1.8 Billion From First Sale of RMBS Since Crisis in 2007

December 17, 2009

By Sarah McDonald Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) — Westpac Banking Corp. raised A$2 billion ($1.8 billion) from bonds backed by home loans in the first such sale by one of Australia’s top four lenders since the global financial crisis began in 2007. The Sydney-based lender priced the A$1.84 billion main class of its residential mortgage-backed securities to yield 130 basis points more than the one-month bank bill swap rate, according to a sale document seen by Bloomberg News today. “It’s not cheap funding for them but they have so much to do that they need a variety of sources,” said Stuart Gray , a Sydney-based portfolio manager at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc, which oversees A$17 billion of fixed-income securities in Australia. Australia & New Zealand Banking Group , Commonwealth Bank of Australia , National Australia Bank Ltd. and Westpac, the nation’s so-called four pillars, haven’t sold RMBS since the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market in mid-2007 roiled credit markets, making the notes harder to sell. Australian RMBS sales slumped to A$10 billion this year as of Oct. 28 after exceeding A$60 billion in 2006, according to Standard & Poor’s. Westpac sold RMBS in May 2007 in the last such issue by one of the four pillars, according to Fitch Ratings. The $2.6 billion main class of notes was priced to yield 5 basis points more than the London interbank offered rate, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. “The RMBS will be issued to maintain the diversity of Westpac’s funding base,” Westpac said in a Dec. 14 statement when the sale was announced. To contact the reporter on this story: Sarah McDonald in Sydney at smcdonald23@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Homebuilding in U.S. Looks Stable for First Time Since 2006, Moody’s Says

December 17, 2009

By John Gittelsohn and John Detrixhe Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) — The outlook for U.S. homebuilders improved to “stable” for the first time in almost four years, Moody’s Investors Service said today, citing rising sales and the most affordable property market in years. “Housing starts, new home sales and existing home sales are all showing positive trends,” senior housing analyst Joseph Snider said in a note to investors today. “Operating profits of the rated homebuilders are also expected to show modest improvements in 2010.” The pace of new home sales is rising this year after having slowed to a quarter of its July, 2005 volume, according U.S. Commerce Department data. Horsham, Pennsylvania-based Toll Brothers Inc. has narrowed its losses and Miami-based Lennar Corp. said in September it expects to return a profit next year. D.R. Horton Inc., based in Fort Worth, Texas, reported a net loss for the last three years, which Chief Financial Officer Bill W. Wheat said Dec. 3 he’s aiming to reverse in 2010. Housing starts in the U.S. rose 8.9 percent to an annual pace of 574,000 homes in November, the Commerce Department said yesterday. Builders are benefiting from an $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time buyers, which lawmakers extended and expanded to run through the spring selling season. “A premature removal of government backing would put the industry’s outlook at considerable risk of returning to negative,” Snider said. Fitch Ratings declared an end to the four-year decline for U.S. homebuilders in a Dec. 14 statement, while cautioning that “challenges remain.” Fitch maintained a “negative” outlook on 10 of 13 homebuilders it rates. Word of Caution “We don’t want to get too far ahead of ourselves,” Robert P. Curran , a homebuilding analyst with Fitch said in a phone interview today. “Challenges face the industry and individual companies.” Housing starts in the U.S. rose 8.9 percent to an annual pace of 574,000 homes in November, the Commerce Department said yesterday. Bonds issued by high-yield, high-risk rated homebuilding and real estate companies have returned 85.7 percent this year including reinvested interest, the best on record for the sector. That compares with a 56.1 percent return for the overall junk-rated bond market, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes. Bond Yields The extra yield investors demand for homebuilder debt compared with Treasuries narrowed to 853 basis points on Dec. 16, the tightest since June 2008, Merrill Lynch data show. That compares with an average of 291 basis points in 2006, before the housing crisis began. Homebuilder bond spreads widened to a record 2,534 basis points on Dec. 4, 2008. High-yield, or junk, bonds are rated below Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service and BBB- by both Fitch and Standard & Poor’s. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. On Aug. 21, Moody’s upgraded its outlook for NVR Inc. to “positive” from “stable,” the service’s first upgrade for a homebuilder since the spring of 2006. Shares of companies traded on the S&P Supercomposite Homebuilding Index have gained 12 percent so far this year. Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. fell as much as 10 percent today, after the Red Bank, New Jersey-based homebuilder reported a larger loss than analysts expected. To contact the reporter on this story: John Gittelsohn in New York at johngitt@bloomberg.net ; John Detrixhe in New York at jdetrixhe1@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Greek Finance Minister Promises `Faster, Dynamic’ Measures to Reduce Debt

December 12, 2009

By Natalie Weeks and Maria Petrakis Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) — Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou promised to speed up fiscal and budget reforms to overhaul the economy, saying the country has no time to spare after investor concerns sent bonds and stocks tumbling. “The biggest gamble the government has is how to regain credibility,” Papaconstantinou said in a speech in Athens today. “The initiatives will be faster and more dynamic. We don’t have the luxury to wait. We will speed up everything, we owe it to the citizens of Greece.” Greek bonds plunged to their lowest in seven months on Dec. 9 and stocks slumped after Fitch Ratings cut Greece one step to BBB+, saying Prime Minister George Papandreou’s two-month-old Pasok government isn’t doing enough to tame a deficit of 12.7 percent of output, the highest in the European Union. A day earlier, Standard & Poor’s put its A- rating on watch for downgrade. Papaconstantinou said the government will begin talks next week on crafting a new tax system that will be fairer and more effective. An audit of government spending will begin next year with the assistance of international companies, he said. The year will close with 300 billion euros ($438.5 billion) in debt and “we must stop the rising dynamic of it,” Papaconstantinou said. The stability plan the government will submit in January needs to include a plan for the “gradual reduction” of Greece’s debt, he said. European officials have added to pressure on Greece. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said yesterday that “courageous” action is needed to close the budget gap. Greece’s 2010 budget foresees a deficit reduction to 9.1 percent of gross domestic product. To contact the reporter on this story: Natalie Weeks in Athens nweeks2@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Stocks Decline for a Fifth Day on Spain’s Credit Outlook; Treasuries Slump

December 9, 2009

By Michael Patterson Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) — Stocks fell from New York to Vienna and Dubai and the MSCI World Index declined for a fifth day as a reduction in Spain’s credit outlook added to concern that defaults will spread through the global economy. The MSCI measure retreated 0.6 percent at 12:54 p.m. in New York, giving it the longest streak of losses since July. Benchmark equity indexes for Spain, Greece and Austria plunged more than 2 percent as Dubai struggled to restructure debt, Greece’s bonds faced a further downgrade and Standard & Poor’s lowered its view of Spain’s credit to “negative.” The dollar posted the fourth straight gain against the euro, strengthening to a one-month high of $1.4668, while copper and oil declined. Spain will experience a “more prolonged period of economic weakness” than expected at the start of the year, according to S&P. The credit-rating firm reduced its outlook one day after Greece’s government bonds tumbled following a downgrade by Fitch Ratings. Moody’s Investors Service cut ratings for six companies controlled by Dubai’s government. “A financial crisis is like a disease, it spreads,” Philip Gisdakis , the head of credit strategy at UniCredit SpA in Munich, wrote in a research note today. “Although Greece is small enough of a problem that it must be bailed out, the risk is that it will not only be Greece that will need support.” The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of equities in developing nations retreated 0.9 percent as Dubai’s DFM General Index plunged 6.4 percent, extending its retreat since Nov. 16 to 30 percent. Spain, Greece Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index retreated 1.1 percent, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.2 percent. Santander SA, Spain’s largest bank, led the nation’s IBEX 35 Index to a 2.3 percent slump. The extra interest, or spread, that investors demand to hold Spanish 10-year debt rather than German equivalents rose to 69.3 basis points from 60.7 basis points yesterday. The Spanish government plans to raise the value-added tax next year and levies on income from capital and will rein in some stimulus spending, even as the economy is projected to shrink. Spain doesn’t agree with S&P’s revision, and the announcement won’t affect policy because the government has already started taking steps to rein in the deficit, said a finance ministry official, who declined to be named. National Bank of Greece SA and Piraeus Bank SA slid more than 6.5 percent as Fitch followed yesterday’s downgrade of Greece’s sovereign debt by cutting the lenders. The Athens Stock Exchange General Index dropped 3.4 percent and has lost 12 percent in the past three days. Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said there is “absolutely” no chance of a default as the country’s bonds slumped the most in a decade, while the cost of credit-default swaps on Dubai’s state-controlled DP World implied a 33 percent risk that the port company will renege on debt. To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Patterson in London at mpatterson10@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Greek Government Bonds Slide as Fitch Says Government Doesn’t Grasp Crisis

December 9, 2009

By Matthew Brown Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) — Greek government bonds slid for the fifth straight day, sending the 10-year yield up by the most in more than a year, as Fitch Ratings said Prime Minister George Papandreou’s government doesn’t grasp the debt crisis’ severity. The decline pushed the yield on the security to its highest level above similar-maturity German bunds since April even after Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said Greece is in no danger of default and is “not the new Iceland.” Papandreou told a cabinet meeting he is determined to tackle the country’s fiscal problems “which threaten the country’s sovereignty.” “I can’t see anyone allocating significant risk budgets to peripheral positions given the continued rating risks ahead of year-end,” said Ralf Preusser , a fixed-income strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in London. “I see continued risk of underperformance for Greek debt.” The yield on the 10-year Greek note advanced 25 basis points to 5.59 percent as of 3:30 p.m. in London, after earlier rising as much as 28 basis points. The 6 percent security due in July 2019 dropped 1.87, or 18.7 euros per 1,000-euro ($1,474) face amount, to 102.88. The two-year note yield jumped 41 basis points to 3.12 percent, after soaring 66 basis points yesterday, the biggest increase since 1998. Greek bonds tumbled this week as Standard & Poor’s put the nation’s debt on watch for a downgrade two days ago and Fitch Ratings yesterday cut the country’s credit rating one level to BBB+ from A-. ‘Moving Swiftly’ “We’re moving swiftly to reassure citizens and markets that we’re moving in the right direction,” Papaconstantinou said today in an interview with Bloomberg Television. The minister also said that Greece will not seek a European Union aid package. “I am not convinced that the cabinet, even the Prime Minister, understand just how severe the situation is,” Fitch’s Christopher Pryce , based in London, said in an interview today. “The jury is still out on whether or not the cabinet really backs the austerity measures that are necessary.” The difference in yield, or spread , between the Greek and German 10-year notes widened as much as 28 basis points to 248 basis points, the most since April 3. ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber predicted Greece will consolidate its public finances over the next year. “We’ll see a consolidation,” Weber told reporters late yesterday in Frankfurt. “Officials are facing a clear necessity to implement concrete budget measures.” German Help Chancellor Angela Merkel ’s government is urging Greece to tackle soaring debt and offered support to help the Greek administration get public finances back under control. “Several members of the German government have, also in bilateral contacts, urged the Greek government to return to healthy public finances,” spokesman Christoph Steegmans said at a regular government press conference in Berlin today. There’s no disputing that Greece needs to take extra measures to cut the deficit and Germany will “support Greece on its path to budget consolidation and economic reforms,” Finance Ministry spokesman Michael Offer told the same briefing. At the same time, there is no reason to doubt that Greece can master the crisis on its own, he said. Credit-default swaps on Greek government debt rose 21 basis points to 229.5 after earlier reaching 232 basis points, the highest level since March, according to CMA DataVision prices. Spanish bonds tumbled after Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said it revised Spain’s outlook to negative from stable, pushing the yield on the 10-year note up 7 basis points to 3.81 percent. The premium investors demand to hold Spanish debt instead of German bunds advanced 8 basis points to 69 basis points. The difference in yield between Portuguese government bonds and German notes widened 12 basis points to 77 basis points. The spread between Irish and German 10-year bond yields widened 21 basis points to 191 basis points. To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Brown in London at mbrown42@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Greek Finance Minister Papaconstantinou Says Absolutely No Risk of Default

December 9, 2009

By Francine Lacqua and Maria Petrakis Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) — Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said there is “absolutely” no risk that the country will default on its debt, seeking to ease the concerns of investors after Greece had its credit rating cut yesterday. “We’re moving swiftly to reassure citizens and markets that we’re moving in the right direction,” Papaconstantinou said today in an interview with Bloomberg Television. The minister also said that Greece will not seek a European Union aid package. Fitch Ratings cut Greece one step to BBB+, the third-lowest investment grade, a day after Standard & Poor’s put Greece’s A- rating on watch for a possible downgrade, signaling it may be reduced within two months. The ratings companies cited concern the nation may struggle to meet its debt commitments as public finances deteriorate. Greece has the highest budget deficit in the 27-nation EU. Greek 10-year government bonds fell. The difference in yield, or spread, over German bunds widened 7 basis points to 228 basis points as of 8:43 a.m. in London. Greece’s Athens Stock Exchange General Index declined for a third straight day, falling 2.3 percent, with National Bank of Greece SA , the largest lender, losing 4.4 percent to 17.40 euros. Papaconstantinou said there is no risk to the Greek banking system as the banks are “fundamentally sound.” Greece’s socialist government, elected in October, plans to cut the budget deficit to 9.1 percent of gross domestic product next year from 12.7 percent this year. Papaconstantinou, an economist with studies from the London School of Economics and 10 years at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development , is fending off criticism from the European Union and investors that he is not doing enough. Budget Plans The Greek government budget plans, including one-off measures and a partial freeze on public-sector pay, “are unlikely by themselves to alter Greece’s medium-term fiscal dynamics” given the prospects of high deficits, debt and sluggish economic growth, S&P said. Former Bank of England policy maker Willem Buiter said Greece may be the first major country in the European Union to default on its debts since World War II. “It’s five minutes to midnight for Greece,” Buiter said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We could see our first EU 15 sovereign default since Germany in 1948.” To contact the reporter on this story: Maria Petrakis in Athens at mpetrakis@bloomberg.net ; Francine Lacqua in London at flacqua@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Ireland Tries to Appease Bond Vigilantes as Greece Faces Rating Downgrade

December 9, 2009

By Simon Kennedy Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) — Ireland is poised to show Greece a way to cut ballooning budget deficits. Finance Minister Brian Lenihan will today announce plans to cut spending by 6 percent in the face of the worst recession in Ireland’s modern history. On the other side of Europe, the yield on Greece’s two-year note yesterday rose the most since November 2008 as it struggles to convince investors it will be as bold. Lenihan is trying to shore up confidence in Ireland, once Europe’s most dynamic economy, a day after Fitch Ratings cut Greece by one step to the third-lowest investment grade. A successful strategy may lead investors to reward Ireland and add pressure on Greece to follow. “The bond vigilantes are back and watching,” said Alan McQuaid , chief economist at Bloxham Stockbrokers in Dublin. “Greece is a worst-case scenario, Ireland’s more solid.” Lenihan is scheduled to deliver the budget at 3:45 p.m. to the parliament in Dublin, his fifth attempt since July 2008 to fix the public finances. He’s seeking 4 billion euros ($6 billion) in savings to stop the shortfall climbing above 12 percent of gross domestic product. While Ireland has lost its top credit rating at Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s, Greece is being pushed harder to act after Fitch yesterday cut it one step to BBB+, the third-lowest investment grade. The previous day S&P put the country’s A- rating on watch for a possible downgrade, signaling it may be reduced within two months. Skeptical Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou yesterday said he is committed to “fair” fiscal consolidation and will submit an extra budget if needed. Fitch’s downgrade “doesn’t correspond to the government’s initiatives,” he said. “While the situation in Ireland remains severe, the government have shown an impressive resolve,” said Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist Kevin Daly , who favors Irish assets over those from Greece. “This contrasts with the situation in a number of other European countries where, despite similar budget problems, there appears to be a reluctance to acknowledge the problem.” The difference in yield , or spread, between 10-year Irish bonds and equivalent German bunds was at 172 basis points yesterday. The gap between Greece and Germany reached 225 basis points, the most since April 21. Imploded Ireland’s fiscal problems mounted after a decade-long property boom imploded and the banking system came close to collapse as credit on the international money markets dried up. Greece is suffering after its new government more than doubled the country’s budget deficit forecast to 12.7 percent, exceeding the European Union’s limit more than four times, as revenue fell short of targets and spending increased. Now, Lenihan is planning pay cuts of about 6 percent for government workers, and labor unions are threatening industrial unrest in response. He also has pledged to slash the deficit to 3 percent of output by 2013, meaning Ireland is facing austerity budgets for the next four years. “The overriding concern is to cement the financial viability of the Irish state,” said Rossa White , chief economist at Dublin-based broker Davy. “The budget for 2010 is a watershed.” Greece’s socialist government, elected in October, plans to cut the budget deficit to 9.1 percent of GDP next year from 12.7 percent this year. The plans, including one-off measures and a partial freeze on public-sector pay, “are unlikely by themselves to alter Greece’s medium-term fiscal dynamics” given the prospects of high deficits, debt and sluggish economic growth, S&P said Dec. 7. “The problems in Dubai and Greece have highlighted that smaller countries with banking and severe fiscal problems will be punished,” White said. “Particularly those that fail to deal with them adequately.” To contact the reporters on this story: Colm Heatley in Belfast at cheatley@bloomberg.net ;

Read the full article →

Pimco Says `Fear Not,’ Weaker Dollar Will Spur Growth, Keep Reserve Status

December 8, 2009

By Wes Goodman and Garfield Reynolds Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) — Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar is poised to fall and the decline may help spur the U.S. economy. “Fear not the falling dollar,” Scott Mather , head of global portfolio management at Pimco, wrote in an article on the company’s Web site . “A gradually weakening dollar may help heal the U.S. economy” by encouraging demand for the nation’s exports, he wrote. The Dollar Index , which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners including the euro and yen, has declined 6.3 percent this year. The currency is sliding as the Federal Reserve keeps U.S. interest rates at a record low, encouraging investors to seek higher yields outside the U.S. The greenback will maintain its role as the world’s reserve currency, and investors shouldn’t worry that a decline will add to inflation, the report said. “There are few viable alternatives,” Mather wrote. “No other currency offers the size and liquidity — not to mention the political and legal stability — necessary to match the dollar as reserve currency of choice.” ‘Inflationary Impulse’ A 10 percent devaluation in the currency may result in an “inflationary impulse” of 1/4 percent to 1/2 percent in the overall U.S. cost of living, the report said. “Deflation is therefore a bigger near-term threat than inflation,” he wrote. Deflation is a general decline in costs in the economy. The Fed cut its target for overnight bank lending to a range of zero to 0.25 percent in December of last year to help the economy snap the steepest recession since the 1930s. The dollar traded at $1.4706 per euro today, and it was as strong as $1.4668, the highest level in a month, after Fitch Ratings cut Greece’s debt ranking. Mather’s comments echo those of Bill Gross , Pimco’s co- chief investment officer, who told CNBC on Oct. 28 that the dollar is an over-owned currency and likely to fall to an all- time low against its major counterparts. Pimco, in Newport Beach, California, is a unit of Munich-based insurer Allianz SE. To contact the reporter on this story: Wes Goodman in Singapore at wgoodman@bloomberg.net ; Garfield Reynolds in Sydney at greynolds1@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Stocks, Gold, Oil Retreat on Dubai World’s Loss, Greece’s Credit Downgrade

December 8, 2009

By Nick Baker Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) — Stocks, gold and oil fell while the dollar rallied after Dubai World’s Nakheel PJSC lost $3.65 billion, Fitch Ratings downgraded Greece’s credit and German industrial production unexpectedly dropped. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index declined 1.4 percent at 4:22 p.m. in New York, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slumped 1 percent. Gold dropped for a third day in New York. Crude posted a fifth consecutive retreat. The yield on Greece’s two-year notes rose the most since 1998. The dollar appreciated against 14 of the 16 most-active currencies. Concern that Dubai World would default on $59 billion in debt roiled markets last month, spurring speculation that the recovery in the global financial system would stall. Moody’s Investors Service said deteriorating public finances in the U.S. and U.K. may test their Aaa ratings. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told the Washington Economic Club yesterday that the economy faces “formidable headwinds.” “Greece is a whole lot more important than Dubai,” said Uri Landesman, New York-based fund manager at ING Investment Management. “There are a lot of banks, in Europe especially, that have exposure to Greece, so if there’s a major problem in Greece, that would be more important than a problem in Dubai.” Equities and commodities dropped from their highs of the day, while the yen and dollar gained against the euro, after German industrial output fell 1.8 percent in October, led by a drop in production of energy and investment goods such as machinery, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. Economists forecast a 1 percent gain, according to the median of 38 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Property Writedowns The MSCI World Index of equities in 23 developed nations and futures on the S&P 500 extended their decline after Bloomberg News reported that Nakheel, the Dubai World-owned property developer seeking to renegotiate debt, had a first-half loss of 13.4 billion dirhams ($3.65 billion) as revenue fell and it wrote down the value of land and property. A spokesman for Dubai World, Nakheel’s parent, wouldn’t comment. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, the biggest underwriter of loans to Dubai World, fell 7.7 percent in London trading following Nakheel’s loss. Greek stocks and government bonds tumbled on mounting concern the nation may struggle to meet its debt commitments as public finances deteriorate. The Athens Stock Exchange General Index dropped 6 percent, its biggest decline since Nov. 26. The yield on the government two-year note jumped 66 basis points, the most since August 1998. Another Cut? Fitch Ratings cut Greece one step to BBB+ today, the third- lowest investment grade. S&P put Greece’s A- rating on watch for a possible downgrade yesterday, signaling it may be reduced within two months. MSCI’s gauge of emerging-market stocks slumped for a third day, the longest losing streak in five weeks. Dubai shares fell the most among benchmark indexes tracked by Bloomberg, tumbling 6.1 percent. The DFM General Index has lost 25 percent since Nov. 16. On Nov. 25, the government said it was seeking a “standstill” agreement on Dubai World’s debt. Gold futures for February delivery decreased 1.8 percent to $1,143.40 an ounce in New York as the dollar’s 0.9 percent advance to $1.4702 per euro curbed the metal’s appeal as an alternative investment. The Bank of Korea, diversifying foreign-exchange reserves away from a falling dollar, said additional gold holdings aren’t attractive as most other central banks aren’t buying and the metal offers no cash returns. ‘Illusion in Gold’ “There’s an illusion in gold,” Lee Eung-Baek, head of the bank’s reserve-management department, said in an interview. “We follow the big trend. Gold isn’t the trend.” Barrick Gold Corp., the world’s largest producer of the precious metal, dropped 4.6 percent in U.S. trading. Crude oil for January delivery lost 1.8 percent to $72.62 a barrel in New York. U.S. supplies of crude oil climbed 500,000 barrels in the week ended Dec. 4, the third straight increase, a Bloomberg News survey showed before tomorrow’s Energy Department report in Washington. PetroChina Co., the nation’s largest oil company, declined 1.4 percent in Hong Kong. Exxon Mobil Corp. slumped 1.1 percent. Treasuries rose for a second day as the Fitch Ratings downgrade of Greece spurred demand for the relative safety of U.S. government securities. Ten-year note yields fell four basis points to 3.39 percent, according to BGCantor Market Data. The rate on two-year notes touched 0.69 percent, the lowest level since Dec. 2. The securities gained the most in five weeks yesterday after Bernanke said the job market “remains weak” and inflation “could move lower.” “There is some nervousness with investors about how things are going to evolve,” said Thomas Schudel, a fund manager at Zurich-based Clariden Leu Ltd., which oversees about $100 billion. “The economic recovery might not be so quick as people thought.” To contact the reporter on this story: Nick Baker in New York at nbaker7@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Credit Card Delinquencies Hit Five-Month High In October

December 2, 2009

NEW YORK — Struggling credit card holders fell behind on their payments in October at the highest rate in five months, according to Fitch Ratings. The agency said Wednesday that the weak job market and the high debt loads consumers are carrying pushed its measure of the 60-day credit card delinquency rate to 4.41 percent from 4.22 percent in September. That’s just below the record rate of 4.45 percent seen in June. Late payments declined during the summer months. Early stage delinquencies, or payments that are just one month past due, also rose, Fitch said. The increases followed bumps for both measures in September. Fitch uses 60-days-past-due as an indicator of potential default. While it is still possible for consumers to make up payments when they are just two months past due, credit card companies often block further card use at that point, said Senior Director Cynthia Ullrich. The result of the higher late payment rate will likely be higher charge-offs for banks and other credit card issuers. Charge-offs occur when a lender concludes the customer will no longer make payments, and writes down the balance on the account. For October, Fitch’s measure of credit card charge-offs declined to 10.09 percent from 10.75 percent in September, but that improvement doesn’t seem likely to last long. Fitch Managing Director Michael Dean said the problem is “the persistent weakness in the labor markets.” The agency expects to keep its ratings on the senior securities backed by credit cards debt despite the trend.

Read the full article →

Uruguay May Elect Former Guerrilla Mujica Today on Pledge to Fight Poverty

November 29, 2009

By Eliana Raszewski Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) — Uruguay’s Jose Mujica , a former guerrilla leader who promises to maintain the ruling coalition’s economic policies, is poised to be elected president in a runoff vote today. Mujica, who is the governing Frente Amplio coalition candidate, has 49.6 percent support, compared with 42.1 percent for former President Luis Alberto Lacalle of the opposition National Party , according to a Nov. 25 poll by Montevideo-based Interconsult. “This government has been successful, and citizens appear to want to support it,” said Juan Carlos Doyenart, a political analyst who runs the polling company. “It’s really difficult for Mujica not to win the election.” Mujica, 74, who was imprisoned for more than a decade by the military juntas that ruled Uruguay in the 1970s and 1980s, campaigned on pledges to continue the policies of President Tabare Vazquez . Since taking office in March 2005, Vazquez, 69, has cut the unemployment rate to 7.3 percent in September from 12.3 percent, encouraged record foreign investment, increased social spending and boosted wages, Doyenart said. In last month’s first round, Mujica, who was a leader of the Tupamaros guerrilla movement, took 47.5 percent of vote, short of the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff. Lacalle received 28.5 percent, and Colorado Party candidate Pedro Bordaberry , who later endorsed Lacalle, finished third with 16.7 percent. Mujica, a former farmer, lawmaker and agriculture minister, says he will hand control of the economy to running mate Danilo Astori , who was Vazquez’s economy minister for four years before stepping down last year to be eligible for elected office. ‘Same Course’ “Economic policy will continue on the same course, taking advantage of the experience of Vazquez’s government,” Astori said at a Nov. 25 news conference in Melo, Uruguay. “We’ll keep betting on an investment climate that has had lots of results. We want higher investment, growth and employment levels because that’s the genuine basis for social reform.” Under Vazquez, central bank reserves almost quadrupled to $7.9 billion, and the country boosted trade with the U.S., Europe and Asia. In 2007, Finland’s Metsae-Botnia Oy opened a $1.1 billion pulp mill in the city of Fray Bentos, Uruguay’s biggest-ever investment. “The next government will need to continue to consolidate macroeconomic stability, with responsible management of public finances,” said Erich Arispe , 32, an analyst at Fitch Ratings in New York. Uruguay should change the composition of its debt, most of which is denominated in foreign currencies, making it “more vulnerable to the exchange rate,” said Arispe. Economic Growth The government forecasts the economy will expand 1.2 percent this year and 3.5 percent in 2010, spurred by rising prices for soybean, wheat and beef exports. Uruguay is the world’s eighth-largest exporter of beef, and shipments may climb 2.9 percent next year as global demand grows, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service. Lacalle, 68, who governed Uruguay from 1990 to 1995, said he would slow integration with Mercosur trade bloc partners Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay and seek to expand trade with countries such as India and China. He has said the ruling coalition had “failed miserably” in dealing with crime. Uruguay’s credit rating outlook was raised to positive from stable in July by Fitch Ratings, citing in a report the South American country’s “strengthening macroeconomic policy framework.” Fitch rates Uruguay’s foreign debt BB-, or three levels below investment grade. About 2.6 million Uruguayans are eligible to vote, the country’s electoral court said on its Web site . The next president takes office in March. The country sold $500 million of bonds in September to help fund future expenses amid a rally in emerging market bonds. Prices for the bonds, due in 2025, have climbed 6.6 percent to 108.14 cents on the dollar since Sept. 22. The yield has fallen to 6.07 percent from 6.66 percent since the bonds were issued. To contact the reporter on this story: Eliana Raszewski in Buenos Aires at eraszewski@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Goldman Calls `Unnecessary Roughness’ After Missing Fitch Mexico Downgrade

November 23, 2009

By Jens Erik Gould Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Paulo Leme called Fitch Ratings’s downgrade of Mexico “unnecessary roughness,” saying the decision ignored the country’s efforts to stem a widening budget deficit. “It’s what we call unnecessary roughness in American football,” Leme, Goldman’s chief Latin America economist in Miami, said in a telephone interview. He had predicted as recently as Nov. 3 that Mexico may avert a downgrade. “Everyone else in the region is experiencing deterioration in the fiscal accounts. Mexico adjusted. Were the efforts Nobel Prize-winning public finance? No. But they did a lot.” Fitch lowered Mexico’s foreign debt rating one level today to BBB, the second-lowest investment grade, after tumbling oil output and the worst recession since the 1930s swelled the deficit. JPMorgan Chase & Co., which last week predicted the Fitch rating cut was imminent, estimates the budget gap will reach the equivalent of 2.75 percent of gross domestic product next year, the widest in two decades. Leme said Fitch’s decision overlooked tax increases passed this month by congress as part of the 2010 budget. Lawmakers boosted the value-added tax one percentage point after rejecting a new 2 percent consumption tax proposed by President Felipe Calderon which aimed to broaden the tax base. The downgrade is “tough because in a way it overlooks what was still a fiscal adjustment worth close to 1.9 percent of GDP in an economy experiencing a recession,” Leme said. PRI’s ‘Awareness’ The cut was the first by Fitch since it gave Mexico an initial rating of BB in 1995 and the first by any ratings company since Standard & Poor’s lowered it in the wake of the 1994 peso devaluation. Lawmakers may approve more tax increases next year, Leme said. The Institutional Revolutionary Party , known as the PRI, is the largest in the lower house of Congress and leads polls ahead of the 2012 presidential election. “It was a highly unsatisfactory outcome for most political actors involved,” Leme said. “There’s an awareness in the PRI that they will most likely inherit the economy in 2012 and they know they need to have something more robust.” Mexico’s $1.09 trillion economy will shrink as much as 7.5 percent this year, the most since the 1930s, according to the central bank. Oil, which funds 38 percent of Mexico’s budget, has fallen 47 percent from a high of $147.27 a barrel in July 2008. Output at state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos fell last year at the fastest rate since 1942, costing Mexico 300 billion pesos ($23 billion) in lost revenue, according to Finance Minister Agustin Carstens . To contact the reporter on this story: Jens Erik Gould in Mexico City at jgould9@bloomberg.net ;

Read the full article →

Office Delinquencies Latest Driver of CMBS Troubles

November 18, 2009

And new matured balloons and past due loans secured by interests in non-traditional assets propelled U.S. commercial real estate loan CDO delinquencies past 10% for the first time, according to the latest index results from Fitch Ratings. U.S. CMBS

Read the full article →

Ukraine Economy Contracted 15.9% Last Quarter, as Disputes Delay Bailout

November 16, 2009

By Daryna Krasnolutska Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) — Ukraine’s economy contracted 15.9 percent last quarter, extending the former Soviet state’s decline, as political wrangling stalled the payment of bailout funds needed to keep the country afloat. The annual contraction compares with a 17.8 percent economic slump in the second quarter, the Kiev-based state statistics committee said today in a statement on its Web site, citing preliminary figures. Ukraine lurched into recession after the global crisis undermined demand for steel, the country’s main export, and left about 20 banks in need of state aid. The former communist nation is now relying on a $16.4 billion International Monetary Fund loan to avoid bankruptcy and to keep up Russian gas payments ahead of winter. The IMF is withholding a $3.4 billion tranche after parliament passed a social spending bill in defiance of the fund’s calls for budget cuts. The hryvnia lost 0.5 percent against the euro to trade at 12.1580 at 10:48 a.m. in Kiev. Against the dollar, the currency was little changed and trading at 8.1187. While a resumption of global trade flows is showing signs of supporting Ukraine’s exporters, recovery prospects are uncertain as credit remains tight, hampering business investment needed for growth. Banks’ asset quality took a hit after last year’s 37 percent hryvnia depreciation against the dollar and the IMF estimates non-performing loans jumped to 30 percent of total lending at the end of June. More than half the banks’ loans are in foreign currency, according to Fitch Ratings. ‘Financial Instability’ “Political dynamics mean policy may not be restored to a sustainable path before there is a further bout of financial instability,” Fitch analyst David Heslam said in a Nov. 12 statement. “A further sharp depreciation in the hryvnia would intensify pressure on Ukraine’s crisis-hit banking system.” The country risks a continued economic decline coupled with faster inflation should policy makers resort to printing money to address their budget needs, Fitch warned on Nov. 12. The rating service “sees an elevated risk that Ukraine could resort more heavily to monetary financing via the National Bank of Ukraine providing liquidity to banks, effectively printing money,” Heslam said. “This would in turn risk undermining fragile confidence in the currency and the banking system, and/or a rapid loss of foreign exchange reserves.” Annual inflation stood at 14.1 percent in October, compared with 15 percent the previous month, the statistics office said on Nov. 9. Presidential Elections The country’s chances of an economic recovery may stall as policy makers, mindful of Jan. 17 presidential elections, fail to agree on budget reform needed to keep bailout funds flowing. Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko will appeal President Viktor Yushchenko’s Oct. 30 approval of an opposition lawmaker bill that will swell the budget deficit beyond IMF mandated limits. “At the root of the problem is Ukraine’s inconsistent macroeconomic policy framework, as the authorities are aiming to defend the exchange rate while avoiding necessary fiscal tightening in the absence of adequate sources of non-monetary financing,” Fitch’s Heslam said. The failure of the main political groupings to agree on budget cuts and IMF-prompted economic reforms has been generated to a large part by the pending elections, provoking the leading candidates to prioritize popular support over needed fiscal and monetary changes. Orange Revolution Yushchenko will run again in the January poll and will face challenges from his erstwhile ally Timoshenko and the leader of the biggest opposition party Viktor Yanukovych , whose rigged run for the office four years ago triggered the Orange Revolution that brought Yushchenko to power. Even so, there are some signs that parts of the economy are recovering as global trade flows rebound. Industrial production , which makes up more than 25 percent of GDP, increased at an average rate of almost 2 percent monthly in the third quarter, compared with a decline of 0.13 percent in the second quarter, according to statistics office data. The “improved situation is very fragile,” central bank adviser Valeriy Lytvytskyi said on Oct. 28. Natsionalnyi Bank Ukrainy has lowered the discount rate twice since June and cut its overnight rate to 15.5 percent on loans using Treasury bills as collateral. The key discount rate now stands at 10.25 percent. Lytvytskyi said he will advise policy makers to reduce the rates by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage point to support the economy. Economic Outlook The government expects the economy to contract 12 percent this year, while the IMF sees a 14 percent decline. “Although the rate of decline of GDP is slowing, non- performing loans continue to grow,” Moody’s Investors Service said on Oct. 14. “Susceptibility to event risk that would lead to a multi-notch downgrade is assessed as high.” Moody’s rates Ukraine B2, while Fitch ranks the sovereign’s debt B-. Standard & Poor’s rates Ukraine CCC+. The three services’ ratings range between five and seven notches below investment grade. To contact the reporter on this story: Daryna Krasnolutska in Kiev at dkrasnolutsk@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Global Asset-Bubble, Inflation Concern Is `Premature,’ Fitch’s Riley Says

November 11, 2009

By Bob Chen Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) — Concern that global prices of shares and property have risen to unsustainable levels is “premature” and spare production capacity will help contain inflation, said David Riley , head of global sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England last week moved to unwind some of the emergency steps they took to rescue the world economy from its sharpest slump since the Great Depression. U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said Nov. 6 the Group of 20 nations should develop a way to tackle asset-price bubbles as the world’s leading economies recover. Near-zero interest rates in the U.S., Britain and Japan are depressing the dollar and fueling a surge in asset values, Nouriel Roubini , the New York University professor who predicted the crisis that began in 2007, said on Nov. 1. Commodities led by gold are trading near record highs, and cheap borrowing costs are pushing up property and equity prices. “Some concerns about the asset-price inflation are overstated,” Riley said today in a phone interview from Seoul. “Policy makers want to reflate asset prices as part of the recovery; if that starts getting out of hand, then you can get worries about future asset bubbles. These concerns I think are somewhat premature.” The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of U.S. stocks is up 21 percent this year, having advanced in all but one of the last eight months as near-zero interest rates and increased lending by the Federal Reserve helped combat a recession. Reports yesterday showed China’s home prices jumped the most in 14 months in October, while those in the U.K. rose to the highest level in almost three years. ‘Appropriate’ Stance Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said yesterday U.S. economic growth and inflation may persist below ideal levels into 2011, making the central bank’s current interest-rate stance “appropriate.” The International Monetary Fund said Nov. 7 countries should withdraw economic stimulus too late rather than too early as the global recovery is likely to be “sluggish” and inflation will stay low. Using monetary policy to puncture bubbles would undo a previous consensus in which central bankers largely left investors to decide when asset prices were overvalued and then acted to address the economic aftershocks of market corrections. Central banks in Australia and Norway recently noted rising property prices when raising interest rates. Won May Strengthen The Bank of Korea’s monetary policy committee will tomorrow leave its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 2 percent, according to all 17 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The bank will refrain from raising borrowing costs until the first quarter next year and the won has more room to strengthen as the economy improves, Riley said. “The Korean economy will grow about 4 percent next year, so there’ll be some scope for raising interest rates,” he said. “Given the expectation of a secular trend decline in the value of the U.S. dollar, it’ll be quite tough to try to lean too heavily against the grain in terms of some strengthening from current levels of the won.” The won was up 0.3 percent at 1,158.30 as of 2:18 p.m. in Seoul, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s strengthened 8.8 percent this year and yesterday touched 1,154.80, the strongest level since September 2008. To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Chen in Hong Kong at bchen45@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Pound Falls Against Dollar as Fitch Says U.K.’s Credit Rating Most at Risk

November 10, 2009

By Paul Dobson and Ron Harui Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) — The pound fell from a three-month high against the dollar after Fitch Ratings said the U.K.’s sovereign credit rating is most at risk among top-rated nations. Sterling dropped versus all 16 of the most-traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg as David Riley , Fitch’s head of global sovereign ratings, said Britain needs “the largest budget adjustment” among countries it rates AAA. Standard & Poor’s has a “negative” outlook on the U.K.’s top-level rating after lowering it from “stable” in May. Reports published today show U.K. house prices and retail sales are increasing. “If the AAA rating were to be lost that would have some fairly dramatic influences,” Jeremy Stretch , a senior currency strategist at Rabobank International in London, said. “It just reinforces the necessity of having a credible fiscal plan. It’s a very challenging environment.” The U.K. currency declined as much as 0.9 percent, the most since Oct. 23, to $1.6602 and was at $1.6682 as of 10:30 a.m. in London. The pound dropped 0.5 percent to 89.94 pence per euro. Fitch expects the U.K. government “will articulate a stronger fiscal consolidation program next year,” and has a “stable” outlook for the country’s rating, Riley said. The pound fell even after the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said in its monthly survey today that the number of real-estate agents saying prices rose exceeded those reporting declines by 34 percentage points, the most since December 2006. House prices rose 1.2 percent in September from the month before, the Department for Communities and Local Government said in a separate report today. ‘Buying Opportunity’ “The sell-off following the Fitch statement offers a buying opportunity” for the pound, Paul Robinson, a currency strategist in London at Barclays Capital, said in an investor note today. “Fitch stressed after the statement that there were no plans to change the U.K. rating. Other news has been more positive,” he said. Britain last month reported the biggest budget deficit for any September since records began in 1993 as the recession ravaged tax revenue and drove up welfare costs. The 14.8 billion-pound ($24.7 billion) shortfall compared with a deficit of 8.7 billion pounds a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said in London on Oct. 20. The U.K. plans to issue 220 billion pounds of debt in the year through March 31. Increased government investment in U.K. banks will add an extra 13 billion pounds to the net cash requirement for this year, the Treasury said on Nov. 3. The U.K. is among “resilient” Aaa rated countries, Pierre Cailleteau , managing director of sovereign ratings at Moody’s, said in an interview in Brussels on Nov. 6. “We don’t see any defaults happening in developed countries,” he said. U.K. government bonds advanced, with the yield on the 10- year gilt falling 2 basis points to 3.81 percent. The two-year security yield was little changed at 0.74 percent. To contact the reporter on this story: Paul Dobson in London at pdobson2@bloomberg.net Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

U.K. Rating Most at Risk Among Top Nations, Outlook Is Stable, Fitch Says

November 10, 2009

By Theresa Barraclough and Garfield Reynolds Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) — The U.K.’s sovereign credit rating is most at risk among top-rated nations, Fitch Ratings said, citing concern over the country’s budget deficit. The rating faces risks because the U.K. needs “the largest budget adjustment,” David Riley , head of global sovereign ratings at Fitch, said in an e-mailed statement. “Our stable rating outlook reflected our expectation that the U.K. government will articulate a stronger fiscal consolidation program next year.” Britain last month reported the biggest budget deficit for any September since records began in 1993 as the recession ravaged tax revenue and drove up welfare costs. The 14.8 billion-pound ($24.7 billion) shortfall compared with a deficit of 8.7 billion pounds a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said in London on Oct. 20. The pound dropped as much as 0.9 percent, the most since Oct. 23. Sterling touched $1.6602 before trading at $1.6644 as of 7:57 a.m. in London, from $1.6759 yesterday in New York. “Many credit profiles of major ‘AAA’ sovereigns have been significantly weakened by the financial crisis and the subsequent recession,” Riley said in a separate statement. “The already out-sized budget deficits and the rise in government debt had reduced the ‘fiscal space’ for policy makers to respond to further adverse shocks.” The U.S.’s rating also might be at risk of a review if its fiscal position does not stabilize in the next couple of years, Riley was reported by Reuters as saying in a television interview. Standard & Poor’s lowered the outlook on the U.K.’s AAA rating to “negative” from “stable” on May 21, citing the country’s rising debt burden. Credit-Default Swaps The cost of hedging against losses on U.K. government bonds through credit-default swaps widened to 55 basis points today, the most since Sept. 8, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A basis point on a credit-default swap protecting $10 million of debt from default for five years is equivalent to $1,000 a year. The contracts pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a country fail to adhere to its debt agreements. Greece’s credit rating was cut one step to A- by Fitch Ratings on Oct. 22 after the country increased estimates for its budget deficit. The outlook is “negative,” meaning the next move is more likely to be lower. To contact the reporter on this story: Theresa Barraclough in Tokyo at tbarraclough@bloomberg.net Garfield Reynolds in Sydney at greynolds1@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Berkshire Hathaway AAA Rating May Be Cut by S&P After Burlington Takeover

November 4, 2009

By Andrew Frye Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) — Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is more likely to be stripped of its AAA rating by Standard & Poor’s after the company agreed yesterday to pay $26 billion to acquire railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. “This transaction will decrease the liquidity and capital adequacy of the insurance operations” at Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire, the ratings company said in a statement today placing Buffett’s firm on “CreditWatch with negative implications.” Berkshire lost the top grade from Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings earlier this year as declines in the value of derivatives tied to stock markets contributed to the company’s first quarterly loss since 2001. Buffett’s insurance units scaled back catastrophe coverage this year to protect capital. S&P said it expects to complete its review within 90 days. On March 24, the ratings firm lowered its outlook on Berkshire to “negative” from “stable,” signaling it may be cut within two years. Buffett, Berkshire’s chairman and chief executive officer, didn’t immediately respond to a message seeking comment left with his assistant Carrie Kizer . Berkshire will take on $10 billion in net debt as part of the acquisition of the Fort Worth, Texas-based railroad for $100 a share. Buffett, whose firm already owns more than 20 percent of Burlington, described the deal as an “all-in wager on the economic future of the United States.” Buffett has drawn down Berkshire’s cash hoard, valued at more than $44 billion at the end of 2007, to finance firms including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and General Electric Co. as banks scaled back funding. Berkshire’s cash holdings were about $24.5 billion as of June 30. ‘Concentration Risk’ “These large investments have attractive coupons and are boosting investment income, but have also increased the exposure” of Berkshire’s insurance companies to lower-rated credits, S&P said. Buying the remaining 77.4 percent of Burlington “will increase the concentration risk associated with having a substantial portion of invested assets in securities of one company.” Buffett is borrowing half of the $16 billion in cash Berkshire plans to use for the Burlington deal, and that debt will be paid back in three annual installments, he told CNBC yesterday. Berkshire, which is also using its stock to fund the deal, will have more than $20 billion in consolidated cash after the purchase, he said. Buffett said in May that the loss of Berkshire’s top credit grades from Fitch and Moody’s had “no economic impact” on the company. Wounded Pride “My pride may be wounded just a bit,” he said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We sold bonds just a couple days after the Moody’s downgrade and we sold them at a spread that was much narrower than it would have been a month earlier.” GE and drugmaker Pfizer Inc. are among companies that lost their top credit grades from S&P in the past year. The businesses that still hold the AAA rating include Microsoft Corp. , the world’s largest software maker, health-products firm Johnson & Johnson and Exxon Mobil Corp. , the biggest oil company. Berkshire advanced $1,051, or 1.1 percent, to $101,501, at 1:12 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The company has gained about 5.2 percent this year. — With assistance from Gabrielle Coppola and Bryan Keogh in New York. Editors: Dan Kraut , Erik Holm To contact the reporter on this story: Andrew Frye in New York at afrye@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Berkshire May Lose AAA From S&P on Burlington Deal

November 4, 2009

By Andrew Frye Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) — Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is more likely to be stripped of its AAA rating by Standard & Poor’s after the company agreed yesterday to pay $26 billion to acquire railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. “This transaction will decrease the liquidity and capital adequacy of the insurance operations” at Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire, the ratings company said in a statement today placing Buffett’s firm on “CreditWatch with negative implications.” Berkshire lost the top grade from Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings earlier this year as declines in the value of derivatives tied to stock markets forced the company’s first quarterly loss since 2001. Buffett’s insurance units scaled back coverage of catastrophes this year to protect capital. S&P said it expects to complete its review within 90 days. Berkshire will take on $10 billion in net debt as part of the acquisition of the Fort Worth, Texas-based railroad for $100 a share in stock and cash. Buffett described the deal as an “all-in wager on the economic future of the United States.” To contact the reporter on this story: Andrew Frye in New York at afrye@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

California Board Pays Record Premium on $250 Million Build America Issue

October 22, 2009

By Jeremy R. Cooke Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) — California’s Public Works Board sold taxable Build America Bonds with the highest coupon interest rate on an issue larger than $100 million since the federal subsidy program began, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The board, borrowing to fund projects on prisons, office buildings, veterans’ homes and mental hospitals in the most populous U.S. state, sold $250 million of 8.361 percent securities due in October 2034. The revenue bonds, backed by state lease payments, are rated lower than California’s general obligations: A- by Standard & Poor’s, Baa2 by Moody’s Investors Service and BBB- by Fitch Ratings. The California agency agreed to pay 412.5 basis points more than AAA U.S. Treasuries due in 2039 and 154.5 basis points more than corporate bonds with comparable credit ratings. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. A Bank of America Merrill Lynch index of U.S. company debt with an average Baa2 rating due in 15 years or more had a so-called spread of 258 basis points. Federal taxpayers bear 35 percent of the interest under the Build America stimulus initiative, which has produced $43.5 billion in deals across the U.S. since mid-April, according to Bloomberg totals. States and municipalities have been attracted by net borrowing costs lower than they would otherwise obtain on bonds that pay interest exempt from federal income taxes. Several Build America Bond issues smaller than $100 million, by Oakland Unified School District and other local California borrowers, have come to market with interest rates as high as 9.5 percent, Bloomberg data show. Before the latest deal, the highest taxable coupon on a Build America security of more than $100 million was the 7.942 percent on a water revenue bond from Stockton, California, set to mature in 2038. The Public Works Board sold a total of $807.4 million of bonds this week, the rest in tax-exempt bonds with yields as high as 5.83 percent for the October 2030 maturity, which the state can buy back beginning in 2019. To contact the reporter on this story: Jeremy R. Cooke in New York at jcooke8@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

‘Majority of Performing 2006/2007 RMBS Loans Underwater’

October 14, 2009

Fitch Ratings has found that 60% of borrowers with performing loans in 2006 and 2007 U.S. mortgage securitizations are in negative equity positions and hundreds of seasoned deals are stressed as well, albeit to a lesser extent.

Read the full article →

Investcap Advisors LLC: CMBS Roadmap: Where Is Your Loan Going?

October 12, 2009

Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings says $36.1 billion in CMBS has been transferred to Special Servicing . But as multifamily owners deal with their own CMBS issues, there is uncertainty about what happens to CMBS loans and where to go when your …

Read the full article →

More Commercial Loans Enter Special Servicing as Performance …

October 8, 2009

The amount of commercial mortgage loans entering special servicing swelled 6% in August as 103 loans totaling $1.8bn joined the ranks of specially-serviced loans within the commercial mortgage-backed securities ( CMBS ) Fitch Ratings …

Read the full article →

Fitch notes Realogy, Chesapeake Energy debt risk

September 29, 2009

CHICAGO – Fitch Ratings said Tuesday that the three issuers of junk debt most in danger of breaching lender requirements are Realogy Corp., Chesapeake Energy Corp. and Frontier Communications Co. Calls for comment to all three companies were not

Read the full article →

S-Reit outlook still negative: Fitch

September 29, 2009

SINGAPORE-listed real estate investment trusts (S-Reits) have mostly refinanced their maturing debt obligations this year and have benefited from a recent share price recovery, noted Fitch Ratings in a new special report

Read the full article →

Municipal Yields Plummet to 42-Year Low on Fewer Offerings, Fund Purchases

September 25, 2009

By Jeremy R. Cooke Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) — Benchmark borrowing costs for highly rated state and local governments dropped to a 42-year low this week, as the pace of new municipal-bond issues slowed and cash flowing into mutual funds accelerated to a record. Municipal issuers led by Ohio sold about $6.3 billion of fixed-rate bonds with final maturities longer than 18 months, down from $9.9 billion last week , according to data compiled by Bloomberg. California borrowed $8.8 billion, selling notes at yields of 1.5 percent and 1.25 percent, which will be paid off by the end of its fiscal year that began July 1. The weekly Bond Buyer 11 -Bond index, which tracks tax- exempt yields on 20-year general-obligation debt with an average Aa1 rating, fell 14 basis points, or 0.14 percentage point, to 3.79 percent, its sixth straight decline. That’s the lowest since May 1967, when Lyndon B. Johnson was U.S. president. “Even though absolute yields are quite low by historical standards, the municipal yield curve is still steep,” said Jamie Iselin, a senior portfolio manager on a team that oversees about $11 billion in municipal bonds at Neuberger Berman LLC in New York. “Investors are getting paid more than they historically would to move out on the curve.” Yield curves chart what investors are accepting to lend for different periods. The Bloomberg Fair Value yield indexes for top-rated general obligation bonds are at 0.75 percent for two- year issues and 4.41 percent for 30-year bonds. The gap is 153 basis points wider than its 10-year median. Out of Cash, Into Bonds Investors pulled out $8.46 billion from tax-free money- market funds yielding an average 0.06 percent during the week through Sept. 22, said iMoneyNet of Westborough, Massachusetts. Cash flowed into municipal bond mutual funds at a record four-week moving average of $2.7 billion through yesterday, topping the $2.6 billion high reached Sept. 16, Dow Jones Newswires reported, citing data compiled by Lipper FMI of Thomson Reuters. The single-week inflow of $1.8 billion also set a new high, beating the previous week’s $1.52 billion. The Municipal Master Index has returned 7.5 percent since the end of June, heading for the best quarterly performance since Merrill Lynch & Co. started compiling the total-return gauge in 1989. Treasuries are up 1.7 percent during the quarter and corporate bonds have gained 8 percent, according to other indexes from Merrill, now part of Bank of America Corp. Moving in a ‘Straight Line’ “Portfolio managers often get annoyed when a market moves in a straight line, with yields just dropping,” said Tom Dalpiaz , who manages municipal bonds for individuals at Advisors Asset Management in Melville, New York. “The bonds in your portfolio, they’re going up in value, that’s a great thing, but each day the merchandise gets more expensive.” Even with the record fund flows, this year’s rally in municipal bonds has an “artificial or manufactured feel” because of the creation of Build America Bonds, Dalpiaz said. The federal stimulus program created in February offers partial interest subsidies to states and localities selling taxable debt for otherwise tax-exempt government projects. BAB issuance reached $33.7 billion this week, Bloomberg data show. While tax-exempt bond yields have fallen to historic levels, “I wouldn’t suggest that people go to cash,” Dalpiaz said. “You’re better off just putting some to work bit by bit, steadily and deliberately, trying to stay invested.” Municipal bond sales are poised to rise next week to about $8 billion, led by New York City and the Los Angeles Unified School District, each planning to offer more than $1.5 billion in tax-exempt and Build America bonds. Following are descriptions of some pending sales of municipal bonds and notes. Timing is subject to change. LOS ANGELES UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT plans to raise $1.6 billion by selling a mix of tax-exempt securities, Build America Bonds and additional taxable debt without federal subsidies. Underwriters led by Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. will handle the deal, which will fund improvements and refinance debt of the second-largest U.S. public school system after New York City’s Department of Education. The Los Angeles district also intends to sell an undetermined amount of Qualified School Construction Bonds, which provide investors with federal tax credits and may or may not include supplemental interest payments, based on preliminary bond documents. (Added Sept. 25) CEDARS-SINAI MEDICAL CENTER plans to borrow $535 million by selling fixed-rate revenue bonds as soon as next week in a deal arranged by the California Health Facilities Financing Authority and Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch & Co. The Los Angeles- based hospital will use the money raised to fund construction of its Advanced Health Sciences Pavilion and other capital projects. The tax-exempt bonds will mature from 2010 through 2027 and carry Fitch Ratings’ fifth-highest A+ rating and Moody’s Investors Service’s sixth-highest A2 rating. The latest deal will increase the hospital’s long-term debt load by more than 70 percent to about $1.2 billion. (Added Sept. 25) VIRGIN ISLANDS PUBLIC FINANCE AUTHORITY plans to sell $476.1 million of bonds to fund public works in the U.S. Caribbean territory and refinance debt issued in 1998. Capital projects include improvements to emergency management services, schools, roads, parks, water lines, libraries, police stations and waste management. All except $6 million will pay interest exempt from federal, state and local taxes. A group of banks led by Citigroup Inc. will underwrite the deal. The bonds are backed by matching fund revenue derived from federal excise taxes collected on Cruzan rum exported to the U.S. from St. Croix. Moody’s Investors Service rates all of the bonds Baa2. Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings rank the $102.6 million of debt with a subordinate lien on revenue BBB- and the senior bonds BBB, one level higher. (Added Sept. 25) NORTH CAROLINA, the 10th most-populous U.S. state, will sell $400 million of its top-rated general-obligation bonds through competitive interest-cost bidding among underwriters on Oct. 6, according to Fitch Ratings. The transaction will replace higher-interest debt. North Carolina has $5.2 billion in GO debt and $1.7 billion in appropriation-backed bonds outstanding. (Added Sept. 25) VIRGINIA will take bids Oct. 6 from investment banks seeking to underwrite $253 million of general-obligation bonds. The offering will raise almost $150 million for new capital projects as well as refinance debt. Virginia is one of seven U.S. states to carry top long-term ratings from Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings. The state had $8.7 billion in net tax-supported debt as of June 30, according to Fitch. (Added Sept. 25) NEW YORK CITY, the largest issuer among municipalities in the U.S., plans to sell $1.83 billion of fixed-rate general- obligation debt next week, including its first issue of Build America Bonds. The city wants to raise $800 million under the program that provides 35 percent interest-cost rebates from the U.S. Treasury. It also intends to offer $900 million of tax- exempt bonds to refinance debt and $130 million of taxable securities without federal subsidies. Underwriters led by Morgan Stanley will handle the taxable portion and Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch & Co. will lead those on the tax-exempt side. New York is rated Aa3 by Moody’s Investors Service, AA- by Fitch Ratings and AA by Standard & Poor’s. (Added Sept. 23) ARIZONA’S SALT RIVER PROJECT, the public power utility for almost 1 million Phoenix-area customers, plans to sell $375 million of long-term bonds via competitive interest-cost bidding among underwriters on Sept. 29. Maturities will range from 2013 through 2037. The proceeds will be used to pay off short-term commercial paper. Standard & Poor’s rates the bonds AA; Moody’s Investors Service grades them Aa1. (Added Sept. 23) To contact the reporter on this story: Jeremy R. Cooke in New York at jcooke8@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

New York City to Sell $1.83 Billion in Bonds, First Build America Offering

September 22, 2009

By Jeremy R. Cooke Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) — New York City plans to sell $1.83 billion of taxable and tax-exempt debt with fixed rates next week, including its first issue of federally subsidized Build America Bonds. The debt offerings by New York, the largest borrower among U.S. cities, will include $800 million of taxable Build America Bonds to fund public works, finance officials said in a news release today. State and local governments raised $33.1 billion under the Build America Bonds program since public offerings began in mid- April. The federal program provides a 35 percent interest-cost rebate created by February’s economic stimulus act. “The BAB market continues to grow and become a more integral part of the municipal bond market,” Chris Holmes , a fixed-income strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, said in a Sept. 18 report. Yield spreads over U.S. Treasuries for long-term BAB issues larger than $200 million have tightened by almost 200 basis points since late June, to about 150 basis points, according to JPMorgan. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. “We expect no material change in this trend over the near term,” Holmes said. New York City also intends to sell $130 million of taxable securities without federal subsidies and $900 million of tax- exempt bonds to refinance debt. Build America Bonds, which can be issued through the end of 2010, can’t be used to refinance long-term debt or for projects that wouldn’t otherwise qualify for tax-exempt financing. A group of investment banks led by Morgan Stanley will underwrite the taxable deal. Underwriters led by Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch & Co. will handle the tax-exempt offering, which will begin Sept. 25, when individual investors can place orders for the bonds. New York City is rated Aa3 by Moody’s Investors Service and AA- by Fitch Ratings, each the fourth-highest of 10 investment grades. Standard & Poor’s rates the city one level higher at AA. To contact the reporter on this story: Jeremy R. Cooke in New York at jcooke8@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Continued Success in Capital Markets Putting REITs in a Better Light

September 16, 2009

Increasing access to, and raising of, new capital is improving the outlook for U.S. equity REITs, according to Fitch Ratings. Given the demonstrated ability by many REITs to raise common equity through follow-on offerings coupled with unsecured bond…

Read the full article →

NVR Upgrade by Moody’s to `Positive’ Is First of a U.S. Builder Since 2006

August 21, 2009

By John Gittelsohn Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) — NVR Inc. became the first homebuilder to have its credit outlook upgraded by Moody’s Investors Service since 2006, when the housing collapse began. The ratings company upgraded NVR, the fourth-largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, today to “positive” from “stable.” A positive outlook means that the rating is expected to improve. “They have a pretty bullet-proof balance sheet. They’ve got a lot more cash than debt,” Michael Widner , an analyst with Stifel Nicolaus & Co. who maintains a “hold” rating on NVR, said. “Unless they flush money down the toilet, their book value is real.” NVR is among the builders emerging this year from the housing slump. New home sales rose 17 percent from January to an average annual rate of 384,000 units in June, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. Sales hit an annual high of nearly 1.39 million homes in July 2005, the department’s data show. NVR rose $30.58, or 4.8 percent, to $674.24 at 3:19 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The company’s book value per share is $266.93, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Moody’s cited Reston, Virginia-based NVR’s “success in navigating through a severe and protracted homebuilding downturn with positive earnings and cash flow generation, enhanced liquidity, and robust credit metrics.” Moody’s maintained a Baa3, its lowest investment-grade rating, on the homebuilder’s existing senior note issue. The ratings company cautioned that future upgrades depend on evidence that the homebuilding sector has hit bottom “rather than pausing before experiencing another leg down.” Industry Rating “What’s hurt the industry is they went too long and wrong on land,” Joseph A. Snider , senior credit officer at Moody’s, said in an interview. NVR differs from other homebuilders because it does not buy properties or build homes without a buyer, Snider said. Moody’s has maintained a “negative” rating on the homebuilding industry since June 2006 because companies amassed too much inventory and debt at a time demand was declining. Publicly traded homebuilders wrote down or wrote off $28.4 billion in property since mid-2006, according to a July report by Fitch Ratings. DR Horton Inc., Lennar Corp., and Pulte Homes Inc., which acquired Centex Corp. on Aug. 19, are the three largest homebuilders by revenue. Revenue Decline NVR reported revenue of $625.4 million for the quarter ended June 30, down 34 percent from a year earlier, and net income of $41.43 million, down 19 percent from a year earlier. With liabilities of $688.5 million and shareholders’ equity of $1.55 billion, the firm had an equity ratio of 69 percent in the second quarter. The last time Moody’s upgrade its rating on a homebuilder was March 22, 2006, when it raised Lennar to Baa2 from Baa3, both of which are investment-grade ratings. Moody’s rates 15 homebuilders. NVR is the only company with a positive outlook. Lennar and DR Horton have a stable outlook. Ten homebuilders have a negative outlook, which means their rating may deteriorate. Centex and Pulte were placed under review for a downgrade on April 8, when their merger was announced, and Moody’s is likely to lower their rating within two weeks, Snider said. To contact the reporter on this story: John Gittelsohn in New York at johngitt@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

S&P Says Investors Can’t Sue Over High Ratings on Worthless Lehman Bonds

July 31, 2009

By David Watts Barton and Karen Gullo Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) — Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings sought dismissal of a lawsuit by two California investors, claiming they weren’t responsible for the plaintiffs’ investment decisions

Read the full article →

California Lawmakers, Schwarzenegger Strike Deal Over $26 Billion Deficit

July 20, 2009

By Michael B.

Read the full article →