free

Greece’s Aid Plea Snubbed by Merkel as Protesters Seize Ministry in Athens

March 4, 2010

By Tony Czuczka and Rainer Buergin March 4 (Bloomberg) — Greece’s pledge to deepen planned budget-deficit cuts failed to yield commitments of financial assistance from Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, to help solve its financial crisis. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said a meeting tomorrow with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won’t be “about aid commitments.” Her finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble , said the deficit-reduction measures announced in Athens were probably enough to convince investors to buy Greek debt. While Papandreou is risking a backlash at home to meet European Union demands for more deficit cuts before allies even consider providing aid, Merkel is facing domestic opposition to tapping taxpayers to extend a financial lifeline to Greece. “There would be no understanding in Germany for bailing out Greece,” Henrik Enderlein, a political economist at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin, said by phone. “It’s a bit of catch-22 situation: if you give in to Greece and you put 5 billion or perhaps even 10 billion into some kind of rescue package or into some guarantees, then the German government would look irresponsible. However, if it doesn’t, then European Union leaders might put a lot of pressure on Merkel and say, look, we have to bail out Greece.” With public workers set to demonstrate in Athens today after the Cabinet yesterday backed 4.8 billion euros ($6.6 billion) of measures in the third round of deficit cuts this year, Papandreou said Greece was prepared to turn to the International Monetary Fund as a last resort. ‘Fulfilled to Utmost’ “We have fulfilled to the utmost all that we must from our side; now it’s Europe’s turn,” Papandreou told his ministers yesterday, according to an e-mailed transcript. “It is a historic moment for the European Union.” Greek bonds rose to their highest in three weeks after the Cabinet endorsed a package of revenue-raising and budget-cutting steps, including higher fuel, tobacco and sales taxes and a cut of 30 percent in three bonus payments to civil servants on top of a wage and benefits freeze. The measures are “convincing,” the European Central Bank said in a statement. The ECB appreciates the Greek government’s recognition of the need to “rapidly adopt and implement decisive structural reforms.” The Greek announcement “is as much about giving other EU governments more political capital in the event that they do eventually need to provide liquidity to Greece,” said Gary Jenkins , head of credit research at Evolution Securities Ltd. in London. “They can make the claim to their own taxpayers that Greece has taken further measures as suggested by the EU.” Summit Promise For now, none of the potential lenders has stepped up since a statement at a Feb. 11 EU summit promised “determined and coordinated action” to support Greece. “There’s no need for such a thing at this point in time,” French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said late yesterday on Sky television. “If it was required, the partners in the club would be available to restore stability.” After meeting Merkel in Berlin, the Greek leader is due in Paris two days later for talks with French President Nicolas Sarkozy . While Greece is pressing EU leaders to help cover the bloc’s largest budget deficit, Merkel’s comments were the clearest signal yet that Germany isn’t convinced. “I expressly want to say that Friday isn’t about aid commitments, but about good relations between Germany and Greece,” Merkel said yesterday in an interview with N-TV, according to a transcript provided by her office. Greece’s steps are “an important signal” toward restoring confidence in the euro. Euro Climbs The euro climbed as much as 1.21 cents yesterday, or 0.9 percent, to $1.3736, its highest intraday level since Feb. 17. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond fell 13 basis points to 6.02 percent, the lowest since Feb. 11. The premium investors demand to buy Greek government debt over comparable German bonds, the European benchmark, declined 14 basis points to 2.91 percentage points. Investor concern about Greece’s ability to finance its debt pushed the risk premium to 396 basis points on Jan. 28, the highest since the start of the euro in 1999, boosting the cost of selling new bonds and raising the risk of default. The premium on Spanish and Portuguese debt has also surged as investors shunned bonds of other high-deficit EU nations. Greece faces more than 20 billion euros in debt redemptions in April and May. The EU is devising a plan to grant Greece about 25 billion euros in emergency aid should the need arise, German lawmakers have said, enough to cover the maturing debt. One option could involve using state-owned lenders such as Germany’s KfW Group to buy its bonds. Deficit Cuts Greece has pledged to trim a deficit of 12.7 percent of gross domestic product to 8.7 percent this year. Concern that Greece won’t be able to tame the shortfall saw the euro lose almost 5 percent against the dollar this year. Greece has blamed market speculators for fueling the decline in its securities. European officials have warned hedge funds that they shouldn’t try to profit from the woes of the region’s nations. U.S. authorities have told some hedge funds not to destroy trading records on euro bets, according to a person with knowledge of the requests. Banks and regulators across Europe were summoned by the European Commission to discuss regulation of the market for sovereign credit-default swaps in the wake of the Greek debt crisis. To contact the reporters on this story: Rainer Buergin in Berlin at rbuergin1@bloomberg.net ; Tony Czuczka in Berlin at aczuczka@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

NYSE Euronext Breaking Out Derivative Results May Capture Higher Valuation

March 3, 2010

By Whitney Kisling and Nina Mehta March 3 (Bloomberg) — The owner of New York Stock Exchange will unveil revamped financial disclosures today that may boost its shares by encouraging investors to assign a higher value to its derivatives trading unit. Four years after starting to expand beyond U.S. equities, NYSE Euronext plans to divide its revenue report into three business segments: derivatives, technology, and stock trading and listings. NYSE also may forecast expenses for 2010 and 2011 at an investor conference today. The 217-year-old Manhattan-based exchange once dominated American stock trading. Competition from Bats Global Markets, Direct Edge Holdings LLC and Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. cost NYSE its majority share of that business, prompting a shift into options, futures and overseas equities. The derivatives business is run by NYSE’s Liffe market, which the company purchased as part of its 2007 acquisition of Euronext NV in Paris. “NYSE’s current valuation does not give the stock appropriate credit for the Liffe derivatives business,” said Rich Repetto , an analyst with Sandler O’Neill & Partners LP, in a Feb. 25 note. “From NYSE’s financial disclosures, it is not possible to get a precise distribution of operating income.” Derivatives exchanges have pricier valuations than equities businesses because their products face less competition, Repetto said. NYSE shares trade at less than 10 times his 2011 per-share earnings estimate. CME Group Inc. and Intercontinental Exchange Inc., which own two of the largest derivatives exchanges, trade for about 17 times his 2011 estimate. Higher Multiple Repetto estimated that adjusting NYSE’s price-to-earnings ratio to take that disparity into account would increase the stock’s multiple to 11 or 12, raising its share price as much as 28 percent. NYSE fell 1.1 percent yesterday to $27.12, trimming its gain this year to 7.2 percent. It underperformed other bourses in 2009 with a 7.6 percent loss, compared with the FTSE/Mondo Visione Exchanges Index’s 49 percent gain . Under the current reporting system, NYSE divides revenue into eight categories. The four largest are derivatives trading and clearing, stock trading, listings and market data. The derivatives unit earns fees charged for trading U.S. and European options and futures contracts, while cash trading collects money from U.S. and European stock transactions. Profit Margins The new system will combine stock trading with listings and provide more clarity on how much derivatives contribute to operating income. NYSE will probably disclose profit margins for Liffe for the first time, Repetto said. “The new segments will make it abundantly clear that we are a diversified exchange,” Chief Executive Officer Duncan Niederauer told analysts on Feb. 9, when the company reported fourth-quarter results. “We hope the added transparency will give investors the tools they need to properly assess our performance and the value of each of these businesses.” NYSE completed its acquisition of Euronext, Europe’s second-largest securities exchange behind Frankfurt-based Deutsche Boerse AG, in April 2007. Liffe is the continent’s second-largest derivatives market, after Eurex AG. The company sold stakes in NYSE Liffe U.S. to Citadel Securities, Getco LLC, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and UBS AG to try to build up the business by encouraging those partners to trade futures there. NYSE did likewise with its Amex options platform last year, selling stakes to seven brokerages. More Options U.S. options trading rose to a seventh straight annual record last year. The number of contracts to buy or sell stocks, indexes and exchange-traded funds that changed hands on U.S. options markets increased 0.8 percent to 3.61 billion in 2009, according to Chicago-based Options Clearing Corp. The revamping of NYSE’s disclosures comes after two years of cost cuts in response to the shrinking of its U.S. equity market share. In 2009, it reduced expenses by 3 percent to $1.68 billion and the number of employees by 14 percent to 3,231. It plans to continue reducing its workforce through this quarter, making 2010 costs “considerably” lower than 2009’s, Chief Financial Officer Michael Geltzeiler said last month. The cuts and derivatives revenues helped NYSE post higher fourth-quarter profit on Feb. 9 than the average analyst estimate. The shares rose the most in four months that day. NYSE’s stock is still trading at 12.2 times the past four quarters’ profits, down from an average of 23.9 in its three years as a public company, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The reporting reclassification will help to make the case that NYSE is “evolving into more of a revenue-growth story than a cost-cutting story, which would be supportive of a higher earnings multiple over time,” according to Roger Freeman , an analyst with Barclays Plc in New York. (To listen to a Web cast of NYSE’s investor day, visit http://www.nyseeuronext.com/ir .) To contact the reporters on this story: Whitney Kisling in New York at wkisling@bloomberg.net ; Nina Mehta in New York at nmehta24@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

ECB Said to Consider Lending Covered Bonds to Banks to Increase Collateral

March 3, 2010

By Gabi Thesing and Esteban Duarte March 3 (Bloomberg) — The European Central Bank may lend covered bonds back to financial institutions for a fee as part of a strategy that would ease banks’ access to funds. ECB policy makers will discuss the plan at their meeting in Frankfurt tomorrow, said three people familiar with the deliberations. No decision has yet been taken. An ECB spokeswoman declined to comment. The proposal comes as the ECB tries to withdraw the emergency measures used to fight the financial crisis without spooking investors concerned about Greece’s record budget deficit. While the 39 billion euros ($53 billion) of bonds held by the ECB is equivalent to just 5 percent of the total currently loaned out to banks , the new plan would give them more collateral to lodge with the ECB in return for funds. “If the ECB were to do this and it would lead to more high-quality collateral being freed up, it could certainly help the banks and the money markets,” said Julian Callow , chief European economist at Barclays Capital in London. “The worst that can happen is that no-one will want to borrow the assets.” The covered bonds have a minimum rating of AA, seven levels higher than BBB-, the lowest rating the ECB accepts from banks as collateral. The ECB has held covered bonds, securities backed by real-estate or public-sector loans, since its purchase program started in July. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will update investors on the central bank’s exit strategy tomorrow. Officials will decide whether to tighten the terms of its seven-day, one-month, three- month and six-month operations, said Laurent Bilke , a London- based economist at Nomura International Plc. In December, the ECB stopped offering banks unlimited funds for 12 months. ‘Landmines’ The ECB’s 22-member Governing Council meets as Greece’s fiscal crisis threatens to derail Europe’s economy. While European Union leaders have pledged “determined” action to safeguard financial stability in the euro region, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said yesterday his government is still finding “new landmines” in its budget. The euro has dropped 5 percent this year. Any move by the ECB to lend covered bonds doesn’t mean the central bank will end the purchase program, which is capped at 60 billion euros, said two of the people familiar with the situation. The purchases have pushed down yields in the $3.2 trillion covered-bond market, which underpins much of Europe’s real-estate lending. The spread on Pfandbriefe, covered bonds typically issued by German lenders, has dropped to 47 basis points from 113 basis points in May, when the purchase plan was announced, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show. The yield premium on covered bonds issued outside Germany has declined by 85 basis points to 114 basis points in the same period. To contact the reporters on this story: Gabi Thesing in London at gthesing@bloomberg.net ; Esteban Duarte in Madrid at eduarterubia@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

GM Names Carlisle U.S. Sales Chief as Docherty Holds On to Marketing Role

March 2, 2010

By Mike Ramsey and David Welch March 2 (Bloomberg) — General Motors Co. reorganized its North America sales operations in the second such shake-up since December, including the naming of a new U.S. sales chief. Steve Carlisle was appointed vice president of U.S. sales operations, including overseeing the dealer network, the Detroit-based company said today in a statement. Susan Docherty , who had been vice president for sales, service and marketing, keeps only the latter responsibility. Chairman Ed Whitacre , who replaced Fritz Henderson as chief executive officer in December, has been shuffling managers to gain market share and post a profit this year. Whitacre had named Docherty to her previous post on Dec. 4, which he also promoted Mark Reuss to president for North America. “It’s become extremely clear to me since taking this role that there is a better way to structure this organization,” Reuss said in today’s statement. “The premise of the structure is simple — a clearer marketing focus to sell more vehicles, and freeing our sales and service experts to focus on customers and dealers.” Each of the four brands GM is keeping in the U.S. — Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick and GMC — gets separate vice presidents for marketing and for sales and service. Bryan Nesbitt , who has been Cadillac general manager, is returning to the design team, GM said. The changes show Whitacre wants improvement faster than GM has been able to execute, Dan Gorrell , principal of consultant AutoStratagem, said before details of the appointments were announced. ‘Take Time’ “It seems that they are expecting miracles and for the situation to reverse itself immediately,” Gorrell said in a telephone interview from Tustin, California. “It will just take time for people to forget bankruptcy and the government bailout.” GM’s board was reconstituted with Whitacre as chairman when the biggest U.S. automaker emerged from a government-backed bankruptcy on July 10. Whitacre, 68, took over as CEO on an interim basis in December and said in January that he would keep the job permanently. GM’s U.S. sales of cars and trucks rose 12 percent in February, trailing the 20 percent average of 5 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. To contact the reporters responsible for this story: Mike Ramsey in Southfield, Michigan, at mramsey6@bloomberg.net ; David Welch in Southfield, Michigan, at dwelch12@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

David Isenberg: The Get Out of Jail and Stay on Contract Free Card

March 2, 2010

My mother was right. I should have gone to law school. Perhaps then I would be able to understand one ignored aspect of the Feb. 24 Senate Armed Services Committee hearing ” Contracting in a Counterinsurgency: An Examination of the Blackwater Paravant Contract and the Need for Oversight ” which has received much publicity in the past week. The relevant background is this. In the fall of 2008, a company called Paravant entered into a subcontract with Raytheon Technical Services Company to perform weapons training for the Afghan National Army. Paravant was created in 2008 by Erik Prince Investments (the company which is now named Xe). On May 5, 2009, Justin Cannon and Christopher Drotleff, two men working for Paravant in Afghanistan, fired their weapons, killing two Afghan civilians and injuring a third. In reviewing the Army’s investigation of the incident, then-CSTC-A Commanding General Richard Formica said that it appeared that the contractor personnel involved had “violated alcohol consumption policies, were not authorized to possess weapons, violated use of force rules, and violated movement control policies.” According to the Department of Justice prosecutors, the shooting “caused diplomatic difficulties for United States State Department representatives in Afghanistan” and impacted “the national security interests of the United States.” which had “no regard for policies, rules or adherence to regulations in country.” Now, go look at the hearing documents posted online by Sen. Levin. Scroll down to Document 20, “June 9, 2009 Show Cause Notice from Raytheon to Paravant’.” Raytheon Technical Services Company LLC (“RTSC”) hereby gives notice to Paravant LLC of Paravant’s failure to perform the Task Order, issued under the Subcontract, in accordance with its terms and conditions. Accordingly, RTSC directs Paravant to show cause in writing, by 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Monday, June 15, 2009, why RTSC should not terminate the Subcontract for default under Article 5 (Termination for Default) of Section 0.01 of the Subcontract. Nothing in this letter is intended to waive, or should be construed as waiving, any of RTSC’s rights under the Subcontract or the Task Order. Reference is made to the Paravant shooting incident that occurred around 9 p.m. local time in Kabul on May 5, 2009. The available evidence concerning the incident shows the following: (J) that after consuming alcoholic beverages at a going-away party at the Kabul Military Training Center (“KMTC”), four Paravant personnel checked out two Paravant SUVs and several weapons, including at least one AK-47 assault rifle, and drove off the training center, all without authorization; (2) that one of the SUVs, while speeding and trying to swerve around a slow or stopped truck on Jalalabad Road, rolled over and left the road; and (3) that the two Paravant personnel in the second SUV fired their weapons, including the AK-47, at a car being driven by an innocent Afghan local national, causing the death of a passenger in the car and serious injuries to the driver of the car and to a bystander who is in a coma and not expected to live. Okay, it’s not hard to understand. Raytheon is informing Paravant that its people screwed up and as a result Raytheon no longer wants to use Paravant. But this is where it starts to get interesting. The next document (No. 21) is a ten-page response from Paravant to Raytheon. Essentially it says that Paravant is not in default of its contract with Raytheon because, wait for it: It is hornbook law that an entity is not liable for misconduct of one of its employees or that occurs beyond the scope of that individual’s employment. An entity is likewise not liable for actions of an independent contractor involving conduct beyond the scope of the contractor’s engagement. Accordingly, such conduct provides no basis for RTSC claiming the right to terminate the Subcontract by default.” … That the Subcontract provisions cited in the Show Cause Notice do not cover individual conduct unrelated to the performance of the contract is of no surprise. A company is not liable for the acts of its independent contractors that cause harm to others except in limited circumstances that are inapplicable here. To my layman’s eyes Paravant seems to be arguing that it enjoys a sort of contractual immunity for any illegal actions committed by its “independent contractors” as long as they occur off the clock. We might call it a ‘Get out of jail and stay on contract free card.’ This is, to say the least, a novel development. A few years ago not even Blackwater would make this argument. In December 2006 an off-duty Blackwater employee, Andrew J. Moonen, who had been drinking heavily, tried to make his way into the “Little Venice” section of the Green Zone, which houses many senior members of the Iraqi government. He was stopped by Iraqi bodyguards for Adil Abdul-Mahdi, the country’s Shi’ite vice president, and shot one of the Iraqis. Officials say the bodyguard died at the scene. Blackwater did not argue that Moonen was off duty and thus it was not their problem. Instead Blackwater fired him and fined him $14,697–the total of his back pay, a scheduled bonus, and the cost of his plane ticket home. Maybe, if the State Department had threatened to terminate Blackwater’s contract back then it would have argued it had no responsibility. We’ll have to let the lawyers figure that out. Actually, Paravant makes an at least reasonable case that Raytheon is far from an innocent party. In its response it said: Paravant’s ability to monitor and enforce its own no-alcohol policy has been undermined by the actions of RTSC’s management personnel in Afghanistan. For example, Paravant and USTC personnel have been informed that RTSC’s management personnel consumed alcohol in Kabul with Paravant’s then-In Country Manager during the evening of 22 April, 2009 at Becochios Restaurant in Kabul. Paravant subsequently terminated the contract with that In-Country Manager for violation of Paravant’s alcohol policy and other reasons, only to be instructed by RTSC Country Manager that Paravant must continue contracting for the services of this individual for 30 days, even “if you make him a bus driver.” Paravant did not follow this instruction. Similarly, RTSC’s Country Manager told a USTC Vice President in a telephone conversation occurring at approximately between 1000 and 1100 hours (EDT) on 29 April 2009, that he had a “case of Corona” beer in his room and looked forward to a toast to “Flashman” (a character in a loaned book from the USTC Vice President). Even assuming the Subcontract obligated Paravant to supervise and monitor all off-duty conduct of an independent contractor, the conduct of RTSC’s own management regarding the use of alcohol sends the wrong message and has materially interfered with Paravant’s ability to monitor and enforce its no-alcohol policy. Still, Raytheon’s July 2, 2009 reply seems to nicely eviscerate Paravant’s argument that it can’t be fired because its contractors killed and wounded the Afghan civilian while off duty. Especially troubling is Paravant’s legal position regarding the limits of its contractual responsibility for its trainers, grounded on the assertion that they are “independent contractors.” Even if that assertion were correct (and Paravant never sought the contractually required consent to subcontract any of the work, let alone all of it), Subsection 7.9.1 of Section A of the Subcontract states that Paravant “shall be responsible for and have control over the acts, errors and omissions of its lower tier subcontractors and any other persons performing any of Subcontractor’s obligations under this Subcontract.” The terms of this obligation are clear and unqualified. Accordingly, RTSC rejects Paravant’s attempt to disclaim its contractual responsibility for its trainers and to deny its clear breaches of the Subcontract based on their asserted status as independent contractors. Equally troubling is Paravant’s assertion that bears no contractual responsibility for the actions of its trainers at any time other than during the performance of training activities. To the contrary, reflecting the obvious fact that the Paravant trainers are operating alongside the U.S. Army in “24/7″ war zone, Subsections B(i), (iv), and (v) of Section K of the Subcontract state in relevant part that “Subcontractor will ensure that its personnel, representatives, and agents behave at all times in accordance with the highest professional and ethical standards” and that “Subcontractor will comply with, and shall cause all o/its personnel, representatives, and agents to comply with, all applicable laws, regulations, treaties, and directives in the predominance of this Subcontract.” (Emphasis added.) Given this unambiguous language and its obvious intent to avoid bringing discredit onto the U.S. Army, Paravant’s responsibilities cannot and do not end when its trainers clock out. Thus, on May 5, Paravant violated its responsibilities when it permitted four of its trainers to retain or reacquire their Paravant-issucd weapons after the training day ended, and when it allowed them to drive Paravant owned vehicles out of the Kabul Military Training Center and onto a public highway while under the influence of alcohol, with tragic consequences. As I said, I’m not a lawyer and it will be very interesting to see how this ends up. But one thing does pique my interest. Private military industry supporters often say that the contractors can be particularly relied on because they are mostly ex-military and as such retain the high degree of professionalism they showed while on active duty. Putting aside the fact that there is an enormous administrative and legal apparatus to maintain that professionalism for active duty servicemen and women, which private industry does not have, I remember from my days in the Navy that there really wasn’t such a thing as being off the clock. Yes, one could go on liberty or leave but one was always expected to conduct oneself properly and responsibly. Yes, I know that private security contractors aren’t on active duty any more but they are still expected, as Raytheon notes, to act “in accordance with the highest professional and ethical standards.” It would be nice if industry supporters make up their mind. Either contractors are in accordance with the highest standards–in which case they are never off the clock and thus their employers are subject to termination for default of contract–or they are not, and their responsibility ends with their shift. In the latter case, the employer gets legal cover, but then they can’t claim to have the same degree of professionalism as those on active duty.

Read the full article →

Ron Carlee: The Local Government CEO: Making the Business of Governance Run

March 2, 2010

What is a city, town, or county manager? This is the question I heard repeatedly as county manager for Arlington County, Virginia, and even more often now that I work at ICMA, the International City/County Management Association. ICMA advances the professional management of all local governments. We require allegiance to a stringently enforced code of ethics, maintain a voluntary credentialing and training/professional development program. We research leading practices, provide technical assistance, and recruit and train the next generation of local government leaders. We do not lobby and are not involved in partisan politics. This blog will provide a glimpse into what city, town, and county managers do and why. First, a definition: local government managers are the chief executive officers in some 4,300 local governments across the U.S. and a number of other countries. In the U.S., more than 92 million people live in communities that operate under the manager form of government. Most people are unaware of what managers are or what they do because they operate in a system that is very different from the federal and state governance models we all studied in civics class as children. The federal and state governments are managed by elected chief executives: the president and governors. This political model was created by the Founding Fathers in reaction to the English monarchy. They created a highly decentralized and diffused form of governance. Our founders, with great intent, designed a system that makes it very hard for government to infringe on our most sacred value: personal freedom. The federal and state systems were intentionally designed to work, shall we say, “deliberately.” Thus, we should not be surprised that major policy issues, such as health care and immigration, languish without action. When it came to local government in the U.S., initially we employed a similar political model of governance complete with elected executives (mayors, board chairs, and county executives) who are elected for defined terms and whose power is checked and balanced by the local legislative body (city/town councils and county councils/boards). The problem with the political model at the local level is the retail nature of what local government does. Cities and towns are formed as municipal “corporations” to provide goods and services upon which complex societies depend: clean water, sewage treatment, streets and roads, trash removal, law enforcement, and protection against fires, disasters, and disease. Local governments also provide amenities to enhance our quality of living: parks, recreation centers, libraries, museums, and arts facilities. Today, most county governments, once seen as only local extensions of the state government, also perform the same range of municipal services as cities and towns. Not only does the political model of governance often result in partisan bickering and gridlock, too often, it also encourages incompetence and corruption. This statement is by no means intended to paint all elected chief executives as incompetent or corrupt. In fact, I am in this business primarily because a mayor gave me a political appointment at age 21 and taught me that government could do good things for people while being honest and ethical. Unfortunately, we are constrained by the luck of the draw, i.e., those who are willing to run for office, and those who run the best campaigns. The mayor who inspired me, for example, finished fourth in a field of six when he ran for re-election. As the U.S. grew more urbanized, and local services became essential to the safe and harmonious functioning of society, people grew uncomfortable with their reliance on the luck of the political draw. Largely in reaction to mismanagement, a “good government” movement emerged during the early 20th century. The reformists involved in that movement created a new governance model for local government. Rather than focusing on politics, this new form of governance recognized that local governments are indeed public “corporations” that provide the services upon which our quality of life depends and which should be managed as businesses. Called the council-manager plan, this new form of government was designed to get work done, with honesty, efficiency, and effectiveness. Policy authority rests with the collective judgment of the elected legislative body (council or board). The legislative body — often referred to as the “governing” body — appoints a professional chief executive officer, just as the board of directors of any other corporation would do. The CEO, or “manager,” is an experienced professional who runs the company. If a manager fails to perform, the council doesn’t have to wait for a new election cycle; they simply fire the manager and hire someone more qualified for the job; thus, the power of the executive is “checked” in a highly effective manner; however, a competent manager can provide continuity across multiple election cycles and elected officials. Today, even among local governments that operate under the political model, smart elected executives hire professional managers to serve as their chief operating officers and run the government’s business while the former focuses on politics and community leadership. So much for the quick history lesson. In future postings, I plan to write about the work of managers: balancing budgets in these difficult economic times; engaging with the public in ways that respect participatory democracy but without being partisan or political; and efforts to build more sustainable and resilient communities.

Read the full article →

EU Puts More Pressure on Greece to Cut Budget Deficit as Merkel Talks Near

March 2, 2010

By Simon Kennedy and Jonathan Stearns March 2 (Bloomberg) — The European Union set the clock ticking on Greece’s attempts to cut the bloc’s largest budget deficit. As Prime Minister George Papandreou prepares to meet Germany’s Angela Merkel on March 5, EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn yesterday said Greece must reveal new measures “in the coming days” to allay officials’ concerns that the current austerity plan falls short. Merkel and other EU leaders want Greece to do more so they can justify any aid package to taxpayers and political opponents who say that Greece shouldn’t be bailed out after living beyond its means. Failure to satisfy Rehn’s demand before the Berlin talks may dash hopes of a German-led lifeline, spurring investors to reverse yesterday’s rally in Greek bonds. “All the trump cards are with Berlin this week,” said Julian Callow , chief European economist at Barclays Capital in London. “Clearly Greece has a huge financing need in the months ahead and so it will have to do more” before the Merkel meeting. Papandreou addresses his governing Pasok party at 5 p.m. local time today and the cabinet meets tomorrow to discuss further “decisions on the economy,” the government said. “It is Greece’s job to do what it has announced, which is to implement the deficit reduction goal,” said Merkel yesterday. The yield on Greece’s 10-year bonds yesterday fell 9 basis points to 6.25 percent, the lowest in two weeks, as investors speculated a deal to help Greece is close. It was little changed at 8:08 a.m. in London today. Greek Options Papandreou’s efforts to give the EU what it wants are being complicated by strikes, a deteriorating economic outlook and higher borrowing costs. Options outlined by the EU include another increase in the fuel levy, raising sales tax and a luxury tax on cars and yachts. It could also raise duties on alcohol and tobacco products again and abolish the “14th wage”, a payment received twice a year that’s equivalent to one month’s wage. Labor Minister Andreas Loverdos said yesterday that Greece will extend a freeze on public-sector pay increases to pensions. “The announcement of cuts is necessary to pave the way to financial assistance,” said Nick Kounis , chief European economist at Fortis Bank Nederland NV in Amsterdam. “Everyone is being tough on Greece and now it has to outline the extra cuts and commit to them.” Bond Sale? While the head of Greece’s debt management agency said in an interview today that the country will sell bonds when market conditions are “favorable,” the government needs to cover more than 20 billion euros ($27 billion) of bonds and notes maturing in April and May. Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said yesterday the government will “do anything” to meet its targets, which include lowering the deficit beneath the EU limit of 3 percent of gross domestic product by 2012. This year, the government wants to cut the deficit by 4 percentage points to 8.7 percent. The EU should nevertheless be wary of making Greece do too much too soon, David Mackie , chief European economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in a Feb. 26 research report. He calculates that new cuts amounting to another 2 percentage points of GDP would leave the total at 7 percentage points, which is “getting to the intolerable end of the spectrum.” “It appears that the Greek government has reasonably broad support across the political spectrum and with the population as a whole,” Mackie said. “Too much pressure from the rest of the EU could change this and introduce a political crisis, the consequence of which would be hard to gauge.” Default Risk The government has already raised the retirement age and frozen salary increases for public-sector workers. The yield on Greece’s 10-year debt has stabilized after surging more than two percentage points in three months to as high as 7.15 percent at the end of January as some investors speculated the EU will do whatever is necessary to stave off a default. German lawmakers say euro-area officials are devising a plan to grant Greece about 25 billion euros in aid should the need arise. One option could involve using German state-owned lenders such as the KfW Group to buy its bonds . “We have a number of options before us, including public and public-private ones,” French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde told reporters near Paris yesterday. “All of this is on the condition that Greece meets its commitments.” To contact the reporters on this story: Jonathan Stearns in Athens at jstearns2@bloomberg.net ; Simon Kennedy in Paris at skennedy4@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Intel CEO Candidate Maloney to Take Medical Leave After Suffering Stroke

March 2, 2010

By Ian King March 2 (Bloomberg) — Intel Corp. Executive Vice President Sean Maloney , a leading candidate for the top job at the world’s largest chipmaker, suffered a stroke that will keep him away from work for months. Maloney, 53, is one of four executive vice presidents reporting directly to Chief Executive Officer Paul Otellini . He’s expected to resume all of his responsibilities after several months of recuperation, Santa Clara, California-based Intel said late yesterday in a statement. Maloney is a product of the internal executive development program at Intel, which has picked CEOs from within its own ranks since it was founded in 1968. The Englishman has been regarded as the top candidate to succeed Otellini, said Doug Freedman , an analyst at Broadpoint AmTech Inc. in San Francisco. “It definitely looked to me like he was the man to beat for the job,” said Freedman, who recommends buying the shares and doesn’t own them. “They have a very deep bench. Personally, it’s a very sad note to hear of his poor health, but from a corporate standpoint, it has very little impact to their corporate health.” Maloney’s duties will be assumed by Dadi Perlmutter , another executive vice president. Together, the two men run Intel’s architecture business, which designs and sells the company’s chips. Maloney focused on business operations, while Perlmutter is mainly responsible for product development. ‘Determination to Return’ “I visited with Sean and his sense of humor and determination to return to work fill the room,” Otellini, 59, said in the statement. “We wish him a speedy recovery and look forward to his return.” Maloney , who was born in London into a family originally from Ireland, joined Intel in 1982 as a manager of software engineering in the U.K. He turned down an offer from Microsoft Corp. , even after an interview with founder Bill Gates at Heathrow airport. Maloney spent nine years with Intel in Europe, rising to become U.K. country manager and then director of marketing for Europe. Intel brought Maloney to the U.S. in 1992 to serve at the technical assistant to Andy Grove , who was then CEO. Maloney followed Otellini into that position and joined a program that Intel uses to identify future executives . Technical assistants act as secretaries, drivers and even bag carriers for senior executives, who they follow full-time. They are expected to participate in meetings and are allowed a say in decision making. Before taking his current role in September 2009, Maloney was Intel’s head of sales and marketing. Intel rose 34 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $20.87 yesterday in Nasdaq Stock Market trading before the announcement. The shares have gained 2.3 percent this year. To contact the reporter on this story: Ian King in San Francisco at ianking@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

EU Sets Clock Ticking on Greek Budget Reduction as Talks With Merkel Near

March 1, 2010

By Simon Kennedy and Jonathan Stearns March 2 (Bloomberg) — The European Union set the clock ticking on Greece’s attempts to cut the bloc’s largest budget deficit. As Prime Minister George Papandreou prepares to meet Germany’s Angela Merkel on March 5, EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn yesterday said Greece must reveal new measures “in the coming days” to allay officials’ concerns that the current austerity plan falls short. Merkel and other EU leaders want Greece to do more so they can justify any aid package to taxpayers and political opponents who say that it shouldn’t be bailed out after living beyond its means. Failure to satisfy Rehn’s demand before the Berlin talks may dash hopes of a German-led lifeline, spurring investors to reverse yesterday’s rally in Greek bonds. “All the trump cards are with Berlin this week,” said Julian Callow , chief European economist at Barclays Capital in London. “Clearly Greece has a huge financing need in the months ahead and so it will have to do more” before the Merkel meeting. Papandreou addresses his governing Pasok party at 5 p.m. local time today and the cabinet meets tomorrow to discuss further “decisions on the economy,” the government said. The yield on Greece’s 10-year bonds yesterday fell 9 basis points to 6.25 percent, the lowest in two weeks, as investors speculated a deal to help Greece is close. The government needs to raise funds to cover more than 20 billion euros ($27 billion) of bonds and notes maturing in April and May. “It is Greece’s job to do what it has announced, which is to implement the deficit reduction goal,” said Merkel yesterday. Pension Freeze Papandreou’s efforts to give the EU what it wants are being complicated by strikes, a deteriorating economic outlook and higher borrowing costs. Options outlined by the EU include another increase in the fuel levy, raising sales tax and a luxury tax on cars and yachts. It could also raise duties on alcohol and tobacco products again and abolish the “14th wage”, a payment received twice a year that’s equivalent to one month’s wage. Labor Minister Andreas Loverdos said yesterday that Greece will extend a freeze on public-sector pay increases to pensions. “The announcement of cuts is necessary to pave the way to financial assistance,” said Nick Kounis , chief European economist at Fortis Bank Nederland NV in Amsterdam. “Everyone is being tough on Greece and now it has to outline the extra cuts and commit to them.” Wary Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said yesterday the government will “do anything” to meet its targets, which include lowering the deficit beneath the EU limit of 3 percent of gross domestic product by 2012. This year, the government wants to cut the deficit by 4 percentage points to 8.7 percent. The EU should nevertheless be wary of making Greece do too much too soon, David Mackie , chief European economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in a Feb. 26 research report. He calculates that new cuts amounting to another 2 percentage points of GDP would leave the total at 7 percentage points, which is “getting to the intolerable end of the spectrum.” “It appears that the Greek government has reasonably broad support across the political spectrum and with the population as a whole,” Mackie said. “Too much pressure from the rest of the EU could change this and introduce a political crisis, the consequence of which would be hard to gauge.” The government has already raised the retirement age and frozen salary increases for public-sector workers. Default Risk The yield on Greece’s 10-year debt has stabilized after surging more than two percentage points in three months to as high as 7.15 percent at the end of January as some investors speculated the EU will do whatever is necessary to stave off a default. German lawmakers say euro-area officials are devising a plan to grant Greece about 25 billion euros in aid should the need arise. One option could involve using German state-owned lenders such as the KfW Group to buy its bonds . “We have a number of options before us, including public and public-private ones,” French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde told reporters near Paris yesterday. “All of this is on the condition that Greece meets its commitments.” To contact the reporters on this story: Jonathan Stearns in Athens at jstearns2@bloomberg.net ; Simon Kennedy in Paris at skennedy4@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Buffett Says U.S. Housing Will Recover by 2011 on Lower Supply of Homes

March 1, 2010

By Andrew Frye March 1 (Bloomberg) — Billionaire Warren Buffett said the U.S. residential real estate slump will end by about 2011, predicting that’s how long it will take demand for homes to catch up with the supply. “Within a year or so, residential housing problems should largely be behind us,” Buffett wrote Feb. 27 in his annual letter to shareholders of his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. “Prices will remain far below ‘bubble’ levels, of course, but for every seller or lender hurt by this there will be a buyer who benefits.” The worst housing decline since the Great Depression has left one in five U.S. mortgage holders owing more than their houses are worth. Record foreclosures last year flooded a real estate market already glutted with unsold property, causing new construction to fall to the lowest in at least 50 years. The fall in homebuilding is the only fix unless the U.S. decides to “blow up a lot of houses,” Buffett joked. “People thought it was good news a few years back when housing starts — the supply side of the picture — were running about two million annually,” said Buffett, the chairman and chief executive officer of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire. “But household formations — the demand side — only amounted to about 1.2 million.” Berkshire, which owns a real-estate brokerage, a business that constructs pre-fabricated houses and units that make products used in homebuilding, has suffered amid the slump. Profit at Clayton Homes, the pre-fab housing business, fell about 9 percent to $187 million before taxes, while earnings at carpet manufacturer Shaw Industries fell 30 percent. “High-value houses and those in certain localities where overbuilding was particularly egregious” will take longer to recover, he wrote. ‘Deeply Invested’ “He’s very deeply invested in this,” said Tom Russo , partner at Gardner Russo & Gardner, which holds Berkshire stock. “Across his industrial companies, he’s massively poised to gain” from a housing recovery, Russo said. Buffett joked that curbing home construction was the best of three ways to reduce supply. The other two, he said, would be to explode homes in a “tactic similar to the destruction of autos that occurred with the ‘cash-for-clunkers’ program” or “speed up householder formations by, say, encouraging teenagers to cohabitate, a program not likely to suffer from a lack of volunteers.” Buffett’s annual communications with shareholders have won him a following of professional money managers and the moniker “the Oracle of Omaha.” He’s written passages in past years that compare investing to baseball , derivatives to venereal disease , and Wall Street bankers to Pied Pipers . The letters have been compiled into a book for those who want to study his pronouncements. Transformative Buffett, 79, built Berkshire into a $198 billion company through investments in firms he believes have superior management and lasting competitive advantages. His deals transformed Berkshire from a failing textile mill into an enterprise that makes candy, produces power and sells flight time on private jets. The shares traded at about $15 when he took control in 1965; the Class A stock last closed at $119,800. Still, he and Vice Chairman Charlie Munger passed up opportunities when they weren’t able to evaluate the future of a business, even in a compelling industry, he said. That strategy has allowed the company to perform better than the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 in every year when both Berkshire and the index have fallen. Playing Defense “In other words, our defense has been better than our offense,” Buffett wrote. Last year, he said, Berkshire should have made more purchases of corporate and municipal bonds because they were “ridiculously cheap” when compared with U.S. Treasuries. “When it’s raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble,” he said. Corporate bonds returned 26 percent in 2009, compared with negative 11 percent in 2008, according to data compiled by Bank of America Corp. Merrill Lynch. State and local government bonds yielded 14 percent last year, compared with negative 4 percent in 2008. Berkshire did extend financing to companies including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. , General Electric Co. and Dow Chemical Co. during the credit crisis as other investors were withholding funds. The private deals pay dividends and interest of $2.1 billion annually, Berkshire said in a filing disclosing 2009 results. Berkshire’s net income of $8.06 billion rose 61 percent from 2008. ‘Climate of Fear’ “We’ve put a lot of money to work during the chaos of the last two years,” Buffett wrote. “It’s been an ideal period for investors: A climate of fear is their best friend. Those who invest only when commentators are upbeat end up paying a heavy price for meaningless reassurance.” Buffett has used past letters to discuss plans for his successor, praise Berkshire managers and confess his failings. He admitted this year to a “very expensive business fiasco” with his move to issue credit cards to policyholders at his company’s Geico Corp. auto-insurance subsidiary. Last year, he said the U.S. economy was “in shambles” after reckless lending caused the worst financial “freefall” he ever saw. He chastised the media in the new letter for “terrible journalism” in seizing on that comment from the prior year without also reporting that he made no predictions about the direction of the stock market. CEO Responsibility Buffett said this year that the CEOs and boards of companies that failed during the credit crisis shouldn’t be allowed to pass blame to underlings. Boards should insist on CEOs taking full responsibility for the risk of collapse, he said. “If he’s incapable of handling that job, he should look for other employment,” Buffett wrote. Shareholders weren’t responsible for the botched operations at some of the country’s largest financial institutions, Buffett said, “yet they have borne the burden with 90 percent or more” of their holdings wiped out in cases of failure. Still, he said, using year-to-year stock prices to evaluate a company’s progress can be an “extraordinarily erratic” measure. Even a decade can fail to give the proper picture, as Microsoft Corp. CEO Steve Ballmer and GE’s Jeffrey Immelt found when they took over with their shares at “nosebleed” prices. GE shares have dropped about 60 percent since Immelt took over in September 2001; Microsoft has fallen about 47 percent under Ballmer’s tenure. Berkshire shares have risen more than 160 percent in the past decade, compared with the 17 percent decline in the S&P 500. Buffett’s company joined that index last month when it completed the largest deal of his 40-year tenure, the $27 billion takeover of railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. ‘We Sleep Well’ Berkshire had $30.6 billion in cash and so-called near cash like U.S. Treasuries as of Dec. 31, compared with $26.9 billion three months earlier, after Buffett sold stock to add to the company’s cash cushion in advance of the rail deal. Buffett used about $8 billion of that cash to help fund the acquisition. “We pay a steep price to maintain our premier financial strength,” Buffett wrote. “The $20 billion-plus of cash- equivalent assets that we customarily hold is earning a pittance at present. But we sleep well.” To contact the reporter on this story: Andrew Frye in New York at afrye@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Berlusconi Passes Ad Rules That News Corp. Says Will Damage Pay-TV Market

March 1, 2010

By Steve Scherer and Chiara Remondini March 1 (Bloomberg) — Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi ’s government approved lower advertising ceilings for pay TV that News Corp.’s Italian unit says will curtail its growth and that of other networks on Rupert Murdoch ’s satellite platform. New regulations will gradually limit the maximum amount of advertising per hour of pay television programming, to 12 percent in 2012 from 18 percent last year. Free-to-air broadcast channels, including those on Berlusconi’s Mediaset SpA network, will be able to increase advertising to a maximum of 20 percent per hour from 18 percent. “The measure isn’t good for Sky Italia,” said Alessandro Frigerio , a fund manager at RMJ SGR in Milan. Since Mediaset started its own pay TV business, the two companies “began stepping on each other’s toes,” he said. Berlusconi, 73, is the country’s biggest media owner. He controls Mediaset, Italy’s largest private TV broadcaster, which competes with Sky Italia. Berlusconi “dutifully” abandoned the Cabinet meeting in Rome today while the rules were approved because of his conflict of interest, according to an e-mailed statement from the premier’s office. The regulations never faced a binding parliamentary vote. Mediaset introduced pay-TV channels in January 2008 to challenge Sky Italia. In the first nine months of 2009, revenue at its Premium service rose 41 percent to 379.9 million euros ($513.2 billion). ‘Limiting Growth’ A draft of the new rules was criticized by Andrea Scrosati , vice president for corporate and market communications at Sky Italia SpA, in parliamentary testimony in January. The rules passed today included new ad ceilings and banned adult content from being broadcast on pay TV during daylight hours, according to a copy of the text and a confirmation by a spokeswoman for Communications Undersecretary Paolo Romani . “Advertising revenue is the engine of this sector. If you add limits, you’re limiting growth,” Scrosati said on Jan. 26. Sky, Italy’s largest pay-TV operator, has five pay-per-view channels running adult content during the day. While advertising is forecast to account for only about 6 percent of Sky Italia’s overall revenue in 2010, it will make up three-quarters of the earnings before interest and taxes, according to Claudio Aspesi , a senior research analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd. In London. At least 20 other companies operate on the Sky platform, including ESPN Inc., Sony Pictures Entertainment Inc., and The Walt Disney Company. Google Inc. on Jan. 15 said it was “concerned” that the plan to regulate Web TV was aimed at limiting access to its YouTube site and that it would create pressure on Internet service providers to police content. The final version of the directive narrows the kinds of Web sites regulated by the local authority to those with regular TV programming, without saying how copyright infringements perpetrated outside the country will be dealt with. Google and Sky Italia spokesmen had no immediate comment. To contact the reporters on this story: Steve Scherer in Rome at sscherer@bloomberg.net Chiara Remondini in Milan at cremondini@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Skilling Asks Supreme Court for New Enron Trial Minus `Tar and Feathers’

March 1, 2010

By Greg Stohr March 1 (Bloomberg) — Four years after a Houston jury found Jeffrey Skilling guilty of leading the accounting fraud that drove Enron Corp. into bankruptcy, that signature prosecution victory may be in jeopardy. The U.S. Supreme Court today will consider the former Enron chief executive officer’s appeal, having already hinted that it will throw out at least one count of his conviction for so- called honest services fraud. Skilling’s lawyers are seeking to overturn the entire 19- count conviction on the grounds that the trial should have been moved to another city. They contend that passions were so high in Houston after the 2001 Enron collapse, which wiped out more than 5,000 jobs and $1 billion in employee retirement funds, that he couldn’t possibly get a fair trial there. “The degree of hostility and animus that existed in Houston against the defendants – Mr. Skilling in particular – was far more intense than other venues,” said Skilling’s lead attorney, Daniel Petrocelli of O’Melveny & Myers LLP in Los Angeles. Skilling was convicted in May 2006 alongside Kenneth Lay , the former Enron chairman who died less than two months later. Skilling, 56, was sentenced to more than 24 years in prison, a term he is serving in a federal prison in Colorado. A federal appeals court upheld the conviction. Enron was the world’s biggest energy-trading company, with a market value of as much as $68 billion, before it collapsed. The bankruptcy spawned criminal charges against 34 defendants, including Arthur Andersen LLP, the now-defunct accounting firm whose conviction the Supreme Court overturned in 2005. Tar and Feathers Skilling’s appeal says the atmosphere in Houston when the trial began in January 2006 was one of hostility toward him, fed by unrelenting and “searing” media coverage. The appeal points to a Houston Chronicle column titled “Your Tar and Feathers Ready? Mine Are” and a local rap song, “Drop the S Off Skilling.” The 12 jurors reflected that antipathy, Skilling contends. During pretrial questioning, three said they were “angry,” three said they had negative feelings toward Skilling or doubted his impartiality and one said that all CEOs were “greedy,” according to his appeal. The federal government, represented by U.S. Solicitor General Elena Kagan , said the trial judge, after questioning the jurors, was satisfied that each could assess the evidence impartially. “Whatever the beliefs of Houston residents generally, the particular individuals selected for petitioner’s jury neither knew nor cared much about Enron’s collapse or the resulting media coverage,” Kagan argued. KSM Trial Skilling is asking the court to declare that pretrial publicity can create a climate so hostile that transfer is required, even if jurors say they can be impartial. That reasoning might bar a New York City trial for Khalid Sheikh Mohammed , the self-proclaimed mastermind of the Sept. 11 attacks. Such a ruling would be blow to prosecutors, says Timothy P. O’Toole, a white-collar crime lawyer at Miller & Chevalier in Washington. “It will be very hard going forward to do high- profile trials in the jurisdiction where the crime took place,” O’Toole said. Although the high court’s decision to hear the appeal suggests a willingness to consider that step, some criminal law experts doubt Skilling’s chances. Bill Otis, a former federal prosecutor, points to the Watergate trials in Washington in the 1970s as examples of fair trials in a city where defendants were vilified. “If you can do that, I don’t think there’s a serious question that you can try Skilling and the other Enron defendants in Houston,” said Otis, an adjunct law professor at George Mason Law School in Arlington, Virginia. Conrad Black Skilling may have his best chance to win on the honest services fraud issue. When the justices considered the law during a December hearing involving former Hollinger Inc. Chairman Conrad Black, several suggested they viewed the measure as unconstitutionally vague. The law covers fraud schemes to “deprive another of the intangible right to honest services.” The implications of that issue for Skilling’s case are in dispute. Government lawyers say a reversal would leave intact his convictions on other counts, while Skilling’s lawyers point to a federal appeals court judge’s conclusion that the honest- services question implicated 13 other counts. Victory on the jury-bias issue would guarantee a new trial, a prospect that some Enron fraud victims find disturbing. “I do not want Skilling to have a new trial, and if he does get one, I hope he gets worse,” said Dawn Powers Martin, a Houston resident and former Enron credit union employee who lost more than $200,000 in her retirement account. “Every time I hear his name, I feel like I’m stabbed in the stomach.” George Maddox, an investor in Van, Texas, who lost $1.5 million, says he has moved on. “I still get mad some mornings, because I was going to send my grandkids to college on that $1.5 million he took from me,” he said. Even so, “if Jeff Skilling gets another shot at freedom, it’s not going to bother me now.” The case is Skilling v. United States, 08-1394. To contact the reporter on this story: Greg Stohr in Washington at gstohr@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Pound Drops to 10-Month Low, Gilts Fall as Conservative Party Lead Narrows

March 1, 2010

By Keith Jenkins and Anchalee Worrachate March 1 (Bloomberg) — The pound tumbled to the lowest in almost 10 months against the dollar and gilts fell as polls showed the U.K. may elect its first minority government since 1974, hampering efforts to cut the nation’s record deficit. Sterling slid below $1.50 for the first time since May 8 and depreciated against all 16 of the most widely traded currencies as a poll showed the opposition Conservative Party has its smallest lead over the ruling Labour Party in more than two years. Elections must be held by June. Traders increased bets the pound will decline further against the dollar, according to the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission. “The political development added to the negative sentiment about the pound,” said Audrey Childe-Freeman , a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman Ltd. in London. “Political uncertainty means the risk of a hung parliament is increasing. You will need a government with a strong majority to push ahead with reforms that the U.K. needs. We are bearish on the pound.” The pound dropped 1.6 percent to $1.4993 as of 10:56 a.m. in London from $1.5238 at the end of last week. It weakened earlier to $1.5097, the lowest level since May 14. Sterling depreciated 1.5 percent to 90.79 per euro from 89.46 pence last week, trading above 90 pence per euro for the first time since Jan. 12. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a decline in the pound compared with those on a gain — so-called net shorts — was 62,884 on Feb. 23, compared with net shorts of 56,079 a week earlier, the figures from the CFTC on Feb. 26 showed. Poll Declines The U.K. currency has dropped in value by 7.4 percent against the dollar and 2.5 percent versus the euro this year as investors concern over fiscal austerity are heightened by the problems surrounding Greece’s budget deficit. Poll declines for the Conservatives, who called for spending cuts to start this year, are making investors skeptical that citizens will elect a government strong enough to contain the budget deficit. At more than 12 percent of gross domestic product, the U.K. shortfall is on a par with that of Greece. Turcan Connell, an Edinburgh-based money manager that caters to rich families, expects the pound to lose between 20 percent and 30 percent against the dollar. Concern that Greece won’t be able to cut its budget deficit helped send the euro 5 percent lower against the dollar this year. ‘Alarm Bells’ “Alarm bells were ringing in Greece for a long time and when it happened, it happened very quickly,” said Haig Bathgate , head of strategy at Turcan Connell. “The U.K. is in a similar predicament. It could be hit very hard.” The 10-year gilt yield rose 4 basis points to 4.07 percent. The two-year note yield gained 5 basis points to 0.99 percent. U.K. bond yields may rise faster relative to those in euro- denominated government debt given the election uncertainty, analysts at Deutsche Bank AG wrote in a report dated Feb. 26. “From a sentiment perspective, if the concerns over peripheral Europe linger on, the spotlight will remain on U.K. fiscal consolidation measures,” wrote the analysts, including London-based Mohit Kumar . Gilts were also pushed lower as German lawmakers said euro- area officials were creating a package to grant Greece about 25 billion euros ($34 billion) in aid should it need help financing its debt, damping demand for what investors consider safer government debt. “The news on Greece unwinds the flight-to-quality demand to a degree,” said Jason Simpson , an interest-rate strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. Bank of England policy makers voted last month to pause their bond-buying program after purchasing 200 billion pounds of securities to help revive the economy. All 45 economists in a Bloomberg News survey expect the central bank to announce no extension to the program at Thursday’s policy meeting. All 60 economists in a separate Bloomberg survey estimate the Bank of England will keep its main interest rate unchanged at a record low 0.5 percent. To contact the reporters on this story: Keith Jenkins in London at Kjenkins3@bloomberg.net ; Anchalee Worrachate in London at Aworrachate@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Starbucks Gun Policy: Refusal To Ban Firearms Pleases Open Carry Advocates, Troubles Gun Control Advocates

February 28, 2010

Dale Welch recently walked into a Starbucks in Virginia, handgun strapped to his waist, and ordered a banana Frappuccino with a cinnamon bun. He says the firearm drew a double-take from at least one customer, but not a peep from the baristas. Welch’s foray into the coffeehouse was part of an effort by some gun owners to exercise and advertise their rights in states that allow people to openly carry firearms. Even in some “open carry” states, businesses are allowed to ban guns in their stores. And some have, creating political confrontations with gun owners. But Starbucks, the largest chain targeted, has refused to take the bait, saying in a statement this month that it follows state and local laws and has its own safety measures in its stores. “Starbucks is a special target because it’s from the hippie West Coast, and a lot of dedicated consumers who pay $4 for coffee have expectations that Starbucks would ban guns. And here they aren’t,” said John Bruce, a political science professor at the University of Mississippi who is an expert in gun policy. Welch, a 71-year-old retired property manager who lives in Richmond, Va., doesn’t see any reason why he shouldn’t bear arms while he gets caffeinated. “I don’t know of anybody who would provide me with defense other than myself, so I routinely as a way of life carry a weapon – and that extends to my coffee shops,” he said. The fight for retailers heated up in early January when gun enthusiasts in northern California began walking into Starbucks and other businesses to test state laws that allow gun owners to carry weapons openly in public places. As it spread to other states, gun control groups quickly complained about the parade of firearms in local stores. Some were spontaneous, with just one or two gun owners walking into a store. Others were organized parades of dozens of gun owners walking into restaurants with their firearms proudly at their sides. In one case, about 100 activists bearing arms had planned to go to a California Pizza Kitchen in Walnut Creek, Calif., but after it became clear they weren’t welcome they went to another restaurant. That chain and Peet’s Coffee & Tea are among the businesses that have banned customers with guns. Just as shops can deny service to barefoot customers, restaurants and stores in some states can declare their premises gun-free zones. The advocacy group OpenCarry.org, a leading group encouraging the demonstrations, applauded Starbucks in a statement for “deciding not to discriminate against lawful gun carriers.” “Starbucks is seen as a responsible corporation and they’re seen as a very progressive corporation, and this policy is very much in keeping with that,” said John Pierce, co-founder of OpenCarry.org. “If you’re going to support individual rights, you have to support them all. I applaud them, and I’ve gone out of my way personally to let every manager of every Starbucks I pass know that.” The Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence has responded by circulating a petition that soon attracted 26,000 signatures demanding that Starbucks “offer espresso shots, not gunshots” and declare its coffeehouses “gun-free zones.” Gun control advocates hope the coffeehouse firearms displays end up aggravating more people than they inspire. “If you want to dress up and go out and make a little political theater by frightening children in the local Starbucks, if that’s what you want to spend your energy on, go right ahead,” said Peter Hamm, a spokesman for the Brady campaign. “But going out and wearing a gun on your belt to show the world you’re allowed to is a little juvenile.” The coffeehouse debate has been particularly poignant for gun-control advocates in Washington state, where four uniformed police officers were shot and killed while working on their laptops at a suburban coffeehouse. The shooter later died in a gun battle with police. Ralph Fascitelli of Washington Ceasefire, an advocacy group that seeks to reduce gun violence, said allowing guns in coffeehouses robs residents of “societal sanctuaries.” “People go to Starbucks for an escape, just so they can get peace,” Fascitelli said. “But people walk in with open-carry guns and it destroys the tranquility.” Gun control advocates have been on the defensive. Their opponents have trumpeted fears that gun rights would erode under a Democrat-led White House and Congress, but President Barack Obama and his top allies have largely been silent on issues such as reviving an assault weapons ban or strengthening background checks at gun shows. Gun rights groups are looking to build on a 2008 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down Washington, D.C.’s handgun ban, and cheered legislation that took effect Monday allowing licensed gun owners to bring firearms into national parks. Obama signed that legislation as part of a broader bill. Legislators in Montana and Tennessee, meanwhile, have passed measures seeking to exempt guns made and kept in-state from national gun control laws. And state lawmakers elsewhere are considering legislation that would give residents more leeway to carry concealed weapons without permits. Observers say the gun rights movement is using the Starbucks campaign to add momentum and energize its supporters. “They’re trying to change the culture with this broader notion of gun rights,” said Clyde Wilcox, a Georgetown University government professor who has written a book on the politics of gun control. “I think they are pressing the notion that they’ve got a rout going, so why not just get what they can while they’re ahead?” ___ On the Net: http://www.bradycampaign.org/ http://www.opencarry.org/

Read the full article →

Consumer Groups Rip Chris Dodd Over Financial Protection Agency Compromise

February 28, 2010

Consumer advocates are reacting harshly to a compromise Consumer Financial Protection Agency being proposed by Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd (D-Conn.). HuffPost and other media outlets have obtained a copy of a memo outlining the proposal that Dodd sent to committee members this weekend. Read the memo here . Under Dodd’s plan, “[t]he agency proposal would be dropped.” Consumer groups and labor unions had been pushing for independence as key to the agency’s success. Bank regulators, they argued, should not have authority to veto consumer protection rules, because they have the interests of the banking sector as their central priority, rather than concern for abusive practices. Consumer groups also wanted a presidentially-appointed head of the agency and an independent funding stream. Dodd’s proposal includes both of those. But without independence, the agency loses its ability to write or enforce strong rules. “We appreciate Chairman Dodd’s extensive efforts to secure bipartisan support for this critical part of the financial reform bill, but effective reform is once again being blocked by opposition from the big banks that caused the current financial crisis. The revised proposal does not provide what is needed to protect American families or the financial system as a whole: a strong, independent Consumer Financial Protection Agency with the power to set and enforce fair rules for all types of credit,” said Heather Booth, Executive Director of Americans for Financial Reform, in a statement. If AFR, a powerful pro-reform lobby, abandons Dodd’s proposal, it’ll lose major momentum in the Senate. Dodd’s proposal puts a variety of obstacles in front of the proposed agency, which would be called the Bureau of Financial Protection and housed in the Treasury Department. Each time the agency wanted to write a rule, it would have to consult with bank regulators. The agency would then have to respond to each and every bank regulator objection in the Federal Register. If the bank regulator was still unsatisfied, it could appeal to the “systemic regulator,” whose mission is to protect the safety and soundness of the banking industry. Anytime a new rule is proposed, bank lobbyists argue that it will be burdensome and make the system less safe and sound. If the systemic regulator agreed with the banks — as they often do — then the consumer protection rule would be voided. Notably, the consumer protection agency has no veto power over any rules issued by bank regulators, which demonstrates which regulator will be superior. The first concern is the banks. Dodd’s proposal is much weaker than that called for by the House and by President Obama. “Abusive lending made possible by inadequate consumer protections was a major cause of the financial crisis, and we cannot allow the status quo to continue,” said Nancy Zirkin, Executive Vice President of the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, in a statement. “Big banks and abusive lenders fought responsible regulation before the crisis, and we are all paying the price. It is unacceptable for Congress to allow them to succeed again.” The new BFP would not be allowed to enforce rules on banks with less than $10 billion in holdings, according to the memo, unless the bank regulator’s Inspector General determines the regulator is failing at its duty — an extremely unlikely scenario. The proposal also makes it nearly impossible for the agency to enforce rules against non-bank financial operations, such as payday lenders. Sen. Tim Johnson (D-S.D.), next in line to become chairman of the Banking Committee when Dodd resigns, and Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), the top-ranking Republican, are both very close to the payday lending industry. A vote on comprehensive financial regulatory reform is expected this week in the committee. AFR released the following analysis Sunday in the wake of news of Dodd’s proposal: Consumer protection responsibility for financial products has been scattered across seven different agencies, and is a low priority for them. To remedy this problem the Administration proposed creating a new independent consumer regulator that would consolidate and streamline this authority, and focus on establishing and enforcing fair rules for banks and other lenders when they deal with American families. The agency they proposed would be independent, with authority and enforcement over all lenders. The proposal was weakened in the House, due to industry opposition, but the final House bill still created a new, consolidated and independent protector for consumers and is a major improvement over what we have today. This recent revised proposal would establish a much weaker consumer regulator that would not have the autonomy or the authority it needs to effectively protect consumers from abusive financial practices. We are particularly troubled by the following proposed changes: -Loss of Independence. Under the proposal, the agency would be reduced from an independent free-standing agency to a bureau within the Treasury Department. Moreover, the same regulators who failed to stop abuses for years would have veto power over the bureau’s protections. The regulators whose decisions need to be overseen are the banking regulators who have been protecting banks while consumers suffer and American taxpayers pick up the bill. -Loss of Enforcement. As we saw in this crisis, protections only work if they are enforced. The few protections that were on the books before this crisis were routinely ignored by the existing regulators who refused to enforce them. The revised proposal substantially cuts back the already reduced enforcement authority in the House bill over most banks as well as cutting back enforcement authority over other creditors such as payday lenders … . This creates loopholes for predatory lenders and also disadvantages responsible lenders who play by the rules. We urge the Senate to stand up to the special interests and pass a financial reform bill that has a strong, independent Consumer Financial Protection Agency with the authority to make and enforce protections for American Families.

Read the full article →

Buffett Sees U.S. Housing Recovery by 2011, Prices Below `Bubble’ Levels

February 27, 2010

By Andrew Frye Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) — Billionaire Warren Buffett said the U.S. will recover from the residential real estate slump by 2011 as demand for houses catches up with the supply that accumulated during the bubble. “Within a year or so, residential housing problems should largely be behind us,” Buffett wrote in his annual letter to the shareholders of his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. “Prices will remain far below ‘bubble’ levels, of course, but for every seller or lender hurt by this there will be a buyer who benefits. Indeed, many families that couldn’t afford to buy an appropriate home a few years ago now find it well within their means.” The worst housing decline since the Great Depression has drained profits from the nation’s largest banks and forced the bailout of companies including Citigroup Inc. and American International Group Inc. Record foreclosures flooded a U.S. real estate market already glutted with unsold property, causing housing starts to fall to their lowest in at least five decades, the U.S. Census Bureau said in a December statement . “People thought it was good news a few years back when housing starts — the supply side of the picture — were running about two million annually,” said Buffett, 79, the chairman and chief executive officer of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire, in today’s letter. “But household formations — the demand side — only amounted to about 1.2 million.” Buffett built Berkshire into a $198 billion company through takeovers and investments in companies he believes have lasting competitive advantages and superior management. His deals transformed the company from a failing maker of men’s suit linings into an enterprise with businesses ranging from ice cream and underwear to power plants and corporate jet leasing. ‘Ridiculously Cheap’ Berkshire, which has a real-estate brokerage, a business that constructs pre-fabricated houses and units making products used in homebuilding, has suffered amid the downturn. Profit at carpet manufacturer Shaw Industries fell 30 percent last year to $144 million. “He’s very deeply invested in this,” said Tom Russo , partner at Gardner Russo & Gardner, which holds Berkshire stock. “Across his industrial companies, he’s massively poised to gain” from a housing recovery, Russo said. Buffett wrote today that his company should have made more purchases of corporate and municipal bonds last year because they were priced ”ridiculously cheap” compared with U.S. Treasuries. “When it’s raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble,” he said. Pied Pipers Buffett has used past letters to discuss plans for his successor, praise Berkshire managers and confess his failings. He’s written passages that compare investing to baseball , derivatives to venereal disease , and Wall Street bankers to Pied Pipers . Last year, he said the U.S. economy was “in shambles” after reckless lending caused the worst financial “freefall” he ever saw. Buffett said this year that the CEOs and boards of directors of companies that failed during the credit crisis shouldn’t be able to pass blame to those below them. Boards should insist on CEOs taking full responsibility for risk, he said. “If he’s incapable of handling that job, he should look for other employment,” Buffett wrote. Shareholders weren’t the ones who botched the operations of some of the country’s largest financial institutions, Buffett said, “yet they have borne the burden with 90 percent or more” of their holdings wiped out in cases of failure. “If their institutions and the country are harmed by their recklessness, they should pay a heavy price,” he wrote. The Oracle The annual communications with shareholders have won Buffett a following of professional money-managers and amateur investors who have given him the moniker “the Oracle of Omaha.” Past letters have been compiled into a book for those who want to study Buffett’s pronouncements. “It’s Moses coming off the mountain with the Ten Commandments,” said Gerald Martin , a finance professor at American University’s Kogod School of Business in Washington who has made Buffett’s letter assigned reading for his students. “It’s something we all look forward to.” Buffett agreed to his largest deal last year when he arranged the $27 billion takeover of railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe. Berkshire completed the acquisition, which Buffett described as an “all-in wager” on the U.S. economy, on Feb. 12. Shares of Berkshire traded at about $15 when Buffett took control in 1965. The Class A stock closed yesterday at $119,800, its highest since October 2008. Buffett added Class B shares in 1996, and agreed to split them this year to help pay Burlington Northern shareholders. Record Trading When Berkshire replaced the railroad in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index , it prompted record trading. The value of Berkshire shares changing hands that day amounted to the most for a single company in one day of trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The annual letters typically give a preview of the company’s upcoming shareholder meeting, scheduled this year for May 1. Buffett announced a change in the format of the meeting in the last letter after shareholders at prior gatherings sought his opinion on sports, abortion and religion while asking few questions about Berkshire. Berkshire had announced that this year’s meeting won’t include a separate event for non-U.S. investors. He used the session in prior years to scout for acquisitions outside the country. To contact the reporter on this story: Andrew Frye in New York at afrye@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Damien Hoffman: Is Scandal the New Model for Marketing?

February 27, 2010

At the beginning of the week my wife likes to watch the anthropological study called The Bachelor . Inevitably, I get sucked in. This week the show did a Q&A with all the ladies who got dumped. However, the directors spent an incredible amount of time focusing on one topic: “the greatest scandal in Bachelor history.” (For those unaware, one of the female contestants hooked up with a show producer and was booted from the game show — yes , it’s a game show.) At first glance, this seems like a normal dramatic episode in the reality TV dimension of planet Earth. However, the intense focus on the scandal felt forced and strategic. It had the feel of a product placement or PR plug. It had the aroma of Madison Avenue. Another recent scandal was whether the Jersey Shore kids were degrading the image of all Italian-Americans. Really? That show is nothing more than an ethnic version of The Real World (which has been on for 18 years). However, Viacom brilliantly played the media for every last drop of scandal PR. The result: the most popular show for Viacom in years. Scandal is an awesome marketing tool. Rather than pay for ads in People, US Weekly, or on shows like E! or Headline News, with a little scandal you can get millions of dollars of press for free. Moreover, all that press becomes gossip (AKA “word-of-mouth” marketing). Now more than ever, scandal can go uber-viral on the backbone of social media. In a modern world where media companies are competing against new outlets such as Facebook, YouTube, and blogs, executives know it takes something shocking to gain a share of our finite attention spans. Therefore, marketing departments salivate to solve the Davinci Code of their careers by getting clients’ products tweeted, dugg, messaged, youtubed, or texted. If the past year has been any indicator, I anticipate scandal to play an increasingly important role in many media marketing budgets in the years to come. Luckily for marketing’s mad men and women, there is no shortage of egomaniacs-gone-wild to support the cause. What do you think about scandal’s role in marketing? Share your comments below.

Read the full article →

Berkshire Profit Surges to $3.06 Billion as Buffett’s Derivatives Recover

February 27, 2010

By Andrew Frye and Jamie McGee Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) — Warren Buffett ’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. said fourth-quarter profit jumped on improved investment results and the recovery of derivative bets tied to the world’s stock markets. Net income rose to $3.06 billion, or $1,969 a share, from $117 million, or $76, in the same period a year earlier, the Omaha, Nebraska-based company said today in its annual report . The profit increase, Berkshire’s third straight, helps rebuild a cash pile that diminished since 2007 as Buffett invested in financial firms bruised by the recession. Companies including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. that turned to Buffett for funding are now paying Berkshire interest of 10 percent or more. The shopping spree culminated with the November agreement to buy railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe for $27 billion. “When the crisis hit full bore, he was the investor of last resort, so he got the terms he was looking for on the investments he made,” said Glenn Tongue , a partner at T2 Partners LLC, which owns Berkshire shares. Buffett is Berkshire’s chairman, chief executive officer and largest shareholder. Contracts linked to four equity indexes improved from the fourth quarter of 2008, when the global decline in stocks after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc . contributed to $4.61 billion in derivative losses at Berkshire. The losses reverse when the indexes, including the Standard & Poor’s 500 , climb closer to the levels they were at when Buffett made the deals near the market’s peak in 2006 and 2007. Stocks Soar Berkshire’s own stock has gained 52 percent in the past year as these so-called equity-index puts rebounded and the value of the firm’s top stocks rose. The Class A shares closed yesterday at $119,800, their highest since Oct. 21, 2008. The 20 largest holdings in its U.S. portfolio all increased in the past 12 months. Coca-Cola Co. , Berkshire’s top holding, climbed 29 percent. Wells Fargo & Co. doubled and American Express Co. tripled. The U.S. portfolio was valued at $57.9 billion at Dec. 31, a 12 percent rise from a year earlier. The surge helped increase Berkshire’s book value last year. Buffett typically highlights book value, the measure of assets minus liabilities, in the first sentence of his annual letter to shareholders. In his “ owner’s manual ” for Berkshire investors, Buffett says he considers the figure to be the best objective measure of a company’s success. Buffett added a $2.6 billion investment in Swiss Reinsurance Co., completed in March, to a portfolio of financing deals that he struck during the credit freeze as other investors were withholding funds. The Swiss Re transaction pays a 12 percent coupon, while Berkshire gets 10 percent annually on its $5 billion injection in Goldman Sachs and its $3 billion of preferred shares in General Electric Co . Railroad Replacement Berkshire joined the S&P this month after completing the takeover of Fort Worth, Texas-based Burlington Northern. The move prompted managers of funds that attempt to recreate the returns of the index to add Buffett’s company to their portfolios. Buffett cut jobs and reshuffled managers at Berkshire’s operating companies last year as retail and industrial demand suffered in the recession. He replaced the CEOs of NetJets, the money-losing luxury flight provider, and jeweler Helzberg Diamond Shops Inc. This month, Berkshire reported its workforce fell by 9.8 percent since the end of 2008 to 222,000 employees. Buffett was stripped of his final AAA credit grade from a major rating firm this month when Standard & Poor’s downgraded Berkshire. The cut, which followed reductions last year by Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service, came as Berkshire neared the completion of the Burlington Northern takeover. To contact the reporters on this story: Andrew Frye in New York at afrye@bloomberg.net ; Jamie McGee in New York at jmcgee8@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Kurt Friese: Pig Business or Business Pigs?

February 27, 2010

Ever feel like you were playing checkers and the other guy was playing chess? That’s the sort of feeling I get often when I watch many of the recent spate of food documentaries to be released. Activists announce that this or that is wrong with the food system, and on the rare occasion when something appears to be getting done about it, the folks who are doing things badly simply change their tactics, but not their strategy. It happened again while watching the British documentary film Pig Business . I watched this film in several ten-minute segments via YouTube because it hasn’t been released in the US, primarily due to legal pressure brought upon the producer (Tracy Worcester) by the film’s main “villain,” Smithfield Foods (the world’s largest pork producer). Despite four letters threatening litigation, the UK’s Channel 4 played the film last summer. But since no US insurer would back the film’s release here in the States due to concerns over threatened lawsuits from Smithfield, it has become essentially a black market film. Thus as Americans have fought censorship by our government for more than 200 years, corporate censorship continues unabated. Smithfield does, in one sense, have cause for concern: this film certainly does not show their company in the most favorable light. Right off the bat the viewer is struck with some rather gruesome images of pigs being brutally mistreated, apparently at the hands of workers in Smithfield-run facilities. We hear from farmers and neighbors complaining of health problems that they tie to the fumes and water contamination from Smithfield hoglots. When this large corporation and their methods of competition had pushed the owner of a small family farm in Poland out of business, he said, “I don’t know whether I should retire, hang myself, or emigrate.” In Poland in the early 90′s, there were 27,500 independent pig farmers. Today there are 2,200 hoglots, and 1,600 of them are wholly owned by Smithfield Foods. Smithfield has 52,000 employees processing 27 million pigs per year in 15 countries and accruing annual sales around $12 billion. Each of those factory farms in Poland replaced 10 family farms with 2-3 minimum wage jobs. Any objective accountant might call that efficiency, but one protester in the film had another way to describe it: Why is it, when people are in bondage to their government it is called ‘tyranny,’ but when the oppressor is a multinational corporation, it is called ‘efficiency?’ It was precisely this form of “efficiency” the art and social critic John Ruskin had in mind when he said “There is scarcely anything in the world that some man cannot make a little worse, and sell a little more cheaply. The person who buys on price alone is this man’s lawful prey.” Smithfield is not alone under Worcester’s microscope: she takes large financial institutions to task as well. In an interview with noted Belgian economist Bernard Lietaer , he points out that Big Finance has its fingers in absolutely everything-making 1/3 of all political contributions in the US. This is a figure that is sure to only increase in light of the Supreme Court’s recent decision in the Citizen’s United case. Big Money’s influence, along with that of many other large and wealthy corporations, dictates the type and scope of laws throughout the US and the world. My daddy used to call this the Golden Rule: He who has the gold makes the rules. That influence is precisely what makes the competitive practices of Smithfield (not to mention many other agribusiness conglomerates) patently unfair. As Pig Business points out, if the likes of Smithfield had to pay for the damages they cause-to the environment and to human health-then any small farmer in the world could out-compete them. But they don’t, because the game is rigged. So most of the time agribusiness will take its profits and go obliviously on its way. But if anyone points out that this emperor has no clothes, they have scads of lawyers and PR professionals to make certain no one hears. Watching Pig Business on YouTube is one small way to get past their invisible hand.

Read the full article →

Fannie Mae’s Aid Request Reaches $76.2 Billion After 10th Straight Loss

February 27, 2010

By Dawn Kopecki Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) — Fannie Mae will seek $15.3 billion in U.S. aid, bringing the total owed under a government lifeline to $76.2 billion, after its 10th consecutive quarterly loss. The mortgage-finance company posted a fourth-quarter net loss of $16.3 billion, or $2.87 a share, Washington-based Fannie Mae said in a filing yesterday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Fannie Mae, which owns or guarantees about 28 percent of the $11.8 trillion U.S. home-loan market, has been hobbled by a three-year housing slump that wiped 28 percent from home values nationwide and led to record foreclosures . The company, which posted $120.5 billion in losses over the previous nine quarters, and rival Freddie Mac were seized by regulators in September 2008. “Our financial results for 2009 reflected the continued adverse impact of the weak economy and housing market, which has resulted in record mortgage delinquencies and contributed to our recording significant credit-related expenses and net losses during each quarter of the year,” Fannie Mae said in the filing. For the full year, Fannie Mae’s loss widened to $74.4 billion from $59.8 billion in 2008. The company’s shares, which peaked at $87.81 in December 2000, closed at 99 cents yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The Treasury owns 79.9 percent of the company’s outstanding common stock. Avoiding Receiver After the next government payout, Fannie Mae’s borrowings will carry an annual dividend cost of $7.6 billion, which the company said it will repay by borrowing more money from the Treasury. “This amount exceeds our reported annual net income for all but one of the last eight years, in most cases by a significant margin,” the company said. The company said the ability to tap continuing cash infusions from the Treasury this year “is critical to keeping us solvent and avoiding the appointment of a receiver.” The loss in the fourth quarter was driven in part by a $5 billion writedown on low-income housing tax credits that the Treasury Department barred the company from selling. Rival Freddie Mac took a $3.4 billion charge for the same reason. Losses at Fannie Mae are likely to grow with rising unemployment and costs to implement President Barack Obama’s plans to reduce foreclosures, the company said. Housing Slump Fannie Mae and McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac survived last year on investments the government made in the companies. The Treasury on Christmas Eve removed a $200 billion aid limit on each company, extending unlimited backing through 2012. The two companies own or guarantee more than $5 trillion in U.S. residential debt, and were responsible for as much as 75 percent of the new mortgages made last year. A record 3 million U.S. homes will be repossessed by lenders this year as unemployment and depressed home values leave borrowers unable to sell or make their house payments, according to a RealtyTrac Inc. forecast last month. Last year there were 2.82 million foreclosures, the most since the Irvine, California-based company began compiling data in 2005. Fannie Mae and smaller rival Freddie Mac were chartered by the government primarily to lower the cost of homeownership by buying mortgages from lenders, freeing up cash at banks to make more loans. The companies make money by financing mortgage-asset purchases with lower-cost debt and by charging fees to guarantee securities they create out of home loans from lenders. Treasury Borrowings Fannie Mae’s net worth , or the difference between assets and liabilities, was negative $15.3 billion as of Dec. 31, compared with negative $15 billion on Sept. 30 and negative $10.6 billion on June 30, according to company statements. For the fourth quarter, Fannie Mae decreased reserves for future credit losses to $64.9 billion from $65.9 billion in the previous quarter. The amount of nonperforming loans that Fannie Mae guarantees for other investors rose to $174.6 billion from $163.9 billion in the third quarter, according to the filing. Fannie Mae also owned $41.9 billion in non-performing loans as of Dec. 31, up from $34.2 billion in the third quarter. The fair value of Fannie Mae’s assets was negative $98.8 billion last quarter, compared with negative $90.4 billion at the end of September. Future of Companies The Obama administration will wait until next year to seek legislation that addresses the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner told the House Budget Committee on Feb. 24. “We are going to propose reforms to the Congress next year to try to make sure we bring about fundamental change in the housing market and get ourselves in a position where the government is playing a less risky, but more constructive role in supporting housing markets,” Geithner said. “That’s going to be a difficult set of reforms.” The Treasury and the companies’ regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, blocked Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae from selling their low-income housing tax credits, which can only be recognized if the companies expect to be profitable. The Treasury found that an agreement Fannie Mae had to sell about half of its credits would have cost taxpayers more than the company would gain from the deal, according to a November letter to that company. To contact the reporter on this story: Dawn Kopecki in Washington at dkopecki@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Ann Pettifor: Bankers turn on the hands that fed them: governments. How Greece’s crisis could impact America.

February 26, 2010

Citizens are rightly angry at the way both the Bush and Obama Administrations, aided by Governor Ben Bernanke – pretty well unconditionally bailed-out the bankers of Wall St., just like governments in Europe and Asia. While politicians and regulators rushed to dampen the flames of financial crisis with taxpayer funds, what happened to those guilty of financial arson? Besides the odd rogue and loner like Bernard Madoff, none has gone to jail for crimes against the people – as far as I know. As if to rub our collective noses in it, bankers have masqueraded their contempt for both politicians and taxpayers by using bail-out resources to post massive capital gains and bonuses. It’s hard to believe they could be guilty of worse. But believe it you must. For now these self-same bankers are turning on their rescuers – the governments that bailed them out. Bankers, hedge and pension-fund managers, including Goldman Sachs, are attacking the very European governments that pay their fees; that provide banks with ‘free money’ in the form of negative rates of interest; that guarantee their liabilities, and that in effect bailed them out unconditionally with taxpayer largesse. It is not a pretty sight. When the worst of the financial blaze had been put out in 2009, regulators started to murmur about taking away Wall St.’s toxic toys. Violent tantrums were thrown; there may even have been some bullying. Politicians and regulators capitulated. The delinquents fooling around with incendiary financial devices were duly re-financed by the Federal Reserve and other central banks – and left free to run amok in the global economy. There they now threaten to put a match to Greece’s volatile economy. So serious a threat do these speculators pose, that the Securities and Exchange Commission is examining ” abuses and destabilising effects related to the use of credit default swaps and other opaque financial products “. The clear implication according to SEC spokesperson John Nester is that these products can potentially cause “cascading harm” to the financial system. The fact is that if today’s speculators bring down the Greek economy, they will likely blow up more debtor nations, and then in a cascading effect, turn on their main benefactors, the now heavily indebted British and United States governments. —————————————————————– Greece’s fiscal crisis is no small thing. Americans ignore it at their peril. Her heavily indebted economy is the canary in a coalmine of sovereign debtors that includes Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Britain and the United States. As long as the Greek canary keeps singing, people in Europe and the United States need not fear going up in smoke. But Greece’s struggling government is threatened by a financial instrument widely used by speculators to discredit government bonds, and undermine the country’s weakening creditworthiness. It is the same incendiary device that played a critical role in wrecking the US economy: the credit default swap (CDS). As Huff Post readers well know, this is no swap. It is the most morally questionable form of insurance, because it lets one insure against the borrower defaulting on, say, a bond without having an insurable interest in that bond. In other words it is possible to insure against Greece defaulting on her bonds, without owning Greek bonds. That is like taking out insurance on your neighbour’s home, without owning the house. The incentive to burn down the place and collect the payout, is powerful – which is why regulators ban you and me from the practice. But not Goldman Sachs and other international financial speculators. Instead these footloose bankers, hedge- and pension-fund managers operate beyond regulation and have a perverted incentive to burn down the house that is Greece. —————————————————————————— As the financial crisis abated, world leaders (the G20) met in Pittsburgh in September, 2009 to review progress. They ended their Summit by patting themselves on the back for their handling of the crisis: “Our countries agreed to do everything necessary to ensure recovery, to repair our financial systems and to maintain the global flow of capital.” “It worked” they concluded, with just a touch of premature smugness. In some ways it sure did. There have been no brakes on global flows of capital. Nobody’s toxic financial toys have been confiscated. For bankers, business is better than usual. And so the stage is set for a new, global financial crisis. World leaders could act, at even this late hour, to prevent such a crisis, and protect their citizens. They could place brakes on the mobility of capital, making it harder for speculators to roam wild and wreak havoc. And as the blogger Sudden Debt argues, they could instruct central bank governors and regulators to govern CDSs like conventional insurance. First: regulators could insist that those that sell Credit Default Swaps join the ranks of other insurance companies, where they will be regulated. They would be required, amongst other things, to comply with statutes, have adequate and segregated reserves and actuarial departments. Second, regulators could ensure that those buying Credit Default Swaps show proof of an insurable interest: i.e. that they own the underlying bonds. With these two strokes of a pen, the meltdown of Greece could be avoided – and a global crisis prevented. But do our over-indulgent regulators have the confidence or maturity to take on their own delinquent banksters? You tell me.

Read the full article →

Dennis A. Henigan: Starbucks Sticks To Its Guns. Why?

February 26, 2010

In case you missed it, last Saturday was “Starbucks Appreciation Day.” No, it was not a gesture of support from lovers of strong coffee (like me). The “appreciation” was on behalf of Americans who believe it is their sacred right to have a handgun with them wherever they go – even to carry it openly to make sure the rest of us know who are the real defenders of the Second Amendment. The “open carry” movement has been convening groups of its followers to meet up at restaurants and coffee shops, with pistols, revolvers and ammo hanging from their hips. Two major retail chains who were “open carry” targets (so to speak) – California Pizza Kitchen and Peet’s Coffee & Tea – reacted quickly by announcing strict “no guns” policies. Starbucks, on the other hand, has earned the “appreciation” of the gun-toters by becoming the “safe house” for the “open carry” movement. Starbucks’ official response has been to offer the assurance that it will “continue to adhere closely to local, state and federal laws” on this issue. This is an evasion, not an answer. The fact is that Starbucks would also “adhere closely to local, state and federal laws” by prohibiting guns on its premises. The law allows Starbucks and other retail businesses to make their own policy on guns. Starbucks has made a choice to recognize the rights of a few gun extremists to show off their weaponry in its stores and ignore the rights of the vast majority of its customers to enjoy their coffee and muffins free of the fear, intimidation and risk of violence inherent in the “open carry” experience. Starbucks seeks to hide behind “local, state and federal law,” but in truth, there is no place for it to hide. For a glimpse into its future as the corporate best friend of the gun-toters, Starbucks should consider the experience of a California restaurant chain, Buckhorn Grill . On February 6, a Buckhorn restaurant in Walnut Creek, California, was visited by about 100 men carrying their highly-visible guns. A recent New York Times editorial said this must have “looked like a casting call for a Sam Pekinpah shoot-’m-up.” Shortly thereafter, Buckhorn’s management made clear that the restaurant had always had a “no weapons” policy and apologized for the “misunderstanding” that had led to the “open carry” event. How many gun carriers need to show up at Starbucks for the company to realize what a nightmare it is creating for its customers and employees? The issue here is much bigger than Starbucks and involves more than just “open carry.” Starbucks’ new gun-wielding friends envision an America in which guns permeate American society. A pitched battle is underway that will determine whether their vision is realized. It started with the gun lobby’s largely successful campaign to make it easier to obtain a license to carry concealed weapons in public. Now the “gun rights” extremists are trying to break down the barriers limiting where concealed weapons can be carried. As of this week, with the shameful acquiescence of the Obama Administration, loaded guns will be allowed in national parks for the first time since they were banned by the Reagan Administration. In over twenty states , the gun lobby has tried, and thankfully failed, to pass legislation to force colleges and universities to allow guns on campus. The battle continues. It may be that “open carry” will turn out to be the “secondhand smoke” of the gun debate. On the tobacco issue, it was one thing for people to subject themselves to the unhealthy effects of cigarettes. It was quite another for the effects of smoking to be so visibly inflicted on non-smokers. Smoking in public became a new, and transforming, focus of the debate, leading to far-reaching restrictions on where people can smoke. On the gun issue, although the carrying of concealed weapons in public subjects everyone to enormous risk , the risk is, by definition, concealed. Perhaps this is why my tobacco-growing home state of Virginia now no longer allows restaurant customers to smoke, but will allow them to carry concealed weapons (and may now be poised to allow them even to carry concealed in restaurants that serve alcohol!). “Open carry,” unlike concealed carry, confronts everyone with the risks of guns in public, in a very direct and highly-visible way. We can only hope that the “open carry” movement will backfire, bringing our country back from the brink of the “guns everywhere” vision of America now being foisted on us by the NRA and the most dedicated supporters of its extremist agenda. Over 27,000 Americans so far have signed the “no guns” petition circulated by the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence and CREDO Action calling on Starbucks to keep guns out of its stores. Please join them by going to www.bradycampaign.org . Tell Starbucks that, in your America, parents ought to be able to take their families into coffee shops without facing the intimidation and danger of guns. For more information, see Dennis Henigan’s new book, Lethal Logic: Exploding the Myths that Paralyze American Gun Policy .

Read the full article →

Dennis Santiago: La-La Land Gets Feisty

February 26, 2010

L.A. City Councilman Richard Alarcon is hopping mad about the way his City and his people are being treated by the banking and finance industry and he’s building a template for how the City of Los Angeles will respond to it. He wants banks doing business with the City to prove they are involved in “investing local” and he is not of a mind to shy away from divesting Los Angeles’ treasure from banks who do not. And how much treasure is that? Start with around $28.9 billion dollars in city operating and related pension funds the City can influence directly. Then there’s the wealth of ordinary people and businesses local leaders can influence by example. When I testified to the Jobs and Business Development Committee on February 23rd I included in my testimony a 17 page table detailing the amounts of deposits in small and large bank branches in every zip code in Los Angeles County. It contains a powerful message that the actions of the City of Los Angeles messages a resident and commuter economic base of nearly $300 billion dollars in bank deposits presently split equally between large and small banking institutions. If such an effort activate an “invest local” movement succeeds, that is a potential public-private economic powerhouse. The hearing aired several public frustrations centering on issues including foreclosure prevention, access to banking by “Unbanked and Under Banked” persons and a most interesting side trip into the world of swaps. Alarcon reported that his 7th District faces the highest rate of pending single family home foreclosures in the City. With the 2010 wave of Option-ARM mortgage resets still to come, he has even more future social stress to weigh on his mind. A packed room filled with the yellow t-shirts from the Alliance for Californians for Community Empowerment (ACCE) and purple t-shirted members of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) made their feelings known with the thunder of a crowd watching a Laker game. What was their message? The real net effect of the nation’s foreclosure prevention programs has done diddly. They do have a point. People are not only losing their homes they are suffering extraordinary emotional stresses dealing with a seemingly heartless loan modification process. A group from the California Reinvestment Coalition (CRC) even flew all the way down from San Jose to direct their anger specifically at the practices of the Bank of America who they allege as being singularly uncaring compared to every other bank dealing with these issues in the San Jose area. They reported they even went to Bank of America’s headquarters to express their concerns but alas Charlotte does not know the way to San Jose. The truth is that there’s no easy answer to the foreclosure problem for anyone involved with the process, bank or otherwise. Alarcon took a long view about loan modifications in his remarks. He opined that loan modifications are just kicking the can down the road and worried out loud that we’d wind up back at square one five years from now unless the programs ultimately morph into substantive principal reduction programs. The fly in that ointment though is that one can’t really offer mortgage principal relief to the troubled borrowers without creating an even greater political demand for equal or better principal relief for the far larger number of current mortgage obligors as well as a new series of tax credits for lien free real estate owners. Never mind the considerable effect it would have on bank balance sheets as mark-to-market rules trigger a mass devaluation of book assets, policy makers need to worry just as much about the implied hit to their property tax base. Like I said, there are no easy answers to this one. My gut still says we are looking at some sort of transformational outcome that will turn renters back into renters en masse. The real question is will be the landlords be a new wave of private barons, deputized banks turned unwilling REIT, federal GSE’s morphed into national rental property management companies, or does Los Angeles have in mind another one of those public-private coops that have been tried in the past be the City? The words from a song echo in my head. “life is so strange … destination unknown”. Here’s the thing, there isn’t actually anything in the draft ordinance that guides an implementable operational outcome to the issue at this time. Nebulous laws aren’t the way to San Jose either. If “responsible banking” in Los Angeles is to deal substantively with the issue of foreclosure, the control language outlining specific, actionable and realizable expectations of bankers and the specification of the public apparatus to that will be created to manage the process needs to be added to the text of the final ordinance. Councilman Alarcon also noted that fellow committee member Councilman Bernard Park’s 8th District contains the highest concentration of unbanked and under banked persons in the City of Los Angeles. It’s not a small problem. The FDIC’s 2009 Survey of Unbanked and Underbanked Households estimates that 7.7 percent of U.S. households are unbanked – meaning they have neither checking or savings accounts – and 17.9 percent of U.S. households are underbanked – meaning they make extensive use of far costlier non-bank alternatives to their financing needs. That’s a whopping 30 million households. The FDIC’s findings indicate the problem disproportionately impacts African-Americans, Hispanics and American Indians five to seven times greater than Whites and Asians. And so we get to one of the expanded objectives of City of Los Angeles Motion 09-0234 also known as the “Responsible Banking Practices” motion to compel banks doing business with the City to help address this concern. It’s a big ask and one that is a bit more complex than both government and banking probably realize. I’ve seen these we’ve got a good idea initiatives in a multitude of business and civic contexts now and I have to tell you that displacing establish incumbent businesses is not as easy as one thinks. It costs money for any business to establish a physical point of presence in a community and Los Angeles is a tough town to do that in. Bank accounts cost overhead to support and you typically have to maintain a minimum balance of some sort to gain service fees relief from a bank. Unbanked people tend not to like costs showing up as recurring fees on their already meager account balances. The check cashing shop down the street may cost more but the charge only hits when you actually have a check and the payday loan guy gives you money you need now. My message here is not that I’m supportive of higher cost alternatives to banking. Quite the contrary! I cut my teeth on civic involvement with Rebuild LA almost twenty years ago. I’ve witnessed my share of cycle of poverty perpetuating infrastructures and understand that it’s important to find and implement sustainable game change solutions. What I am saying is that a municipality contemplating mandating that banking and financial services vendors must somehow compete with entrenched “irregular immediacy” financial services models as a predicate to being eligible to deliver conventional services is a lot to ask from a portion of the banking industry that has little demonstrated business acumen addressing this kind of market demand profitably. Both of the above issues are certainly intriguing social responsibility challenges to ponder. Personally, I’d suggest making them agenda items for a banking practices task force to investigate separately rather than try to incorporate it into the original tenets of 09-0234. It’ll bog it down and in my opinion Los Angeles does not have the time to let that happen. Better to leave appropriate hooks in 09-0234 to bring the outcome of the task force’s recommendations back into the process to add to a bureaucratic vehicle created by an ordinance. The immediate need remains to perfect the primary motion into an draft ordinance that will actually be “operable” and pass it into law. Where to improve? The Los Angeles motion is presently moving along a track that could result in an ordinance that is strong on policy and weak on efficacy. The February 23rd hearing further amplified policy but left it up to the staff apparatus of the city to continue to pursue efficacy. The draft from the Los Angeles Chief Legislative Analyst’s (CLA) office is based on a copy of an old Philadelphia ordinance. The inspection criteria matrix is a direct extract from the 1978 CRA law. I have to tell you straight up. A photocopier is not a proper tool for designing a micromanagement version of the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) able to inspect, analyze and verify compliance with “invest local” policies by any municipality, county or state. Something more specific and actionable is needed. Something that, as committee member Bernard Parks alluded to several times during the hearing, will stand up to legal scrutiny. I see the stakes in that poker hand and raise you to stringent legal AND political scrutiny. The most glaring flaw in the draft is reliance on federal CRA scores. CRA ratings are federal ratings that are updated infrequently, once every three years nominally. The scores are also computed looking at the bank as a whole AND focusing on community involvement in its’ primary markets of presence. Thus a bank like say the Bank of New York – Mellon or Capital One who do business with the Los Angeles area can argue well within the limits of statutory reason that they owe Los Angeles or any other community outside their local areas nothing under CRA guidelines. No boys and girls, I did not make that observation up. Forescee Hogan-Rowles from the L.A. public-private Community Financial Resource Center (CFRC) did and I figure the on the record observations of someone who is also a Commissioner of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power deserves the stature of ordinance designing guidance in this process. There’s a lot more brain trust out there that can help the City of Los Angeles get this template right. The CLA and CAO need to be taking advantage of it. Naturally you utter stuff like this within earshot of people and the next question becomes, “Ok if not CRA then what Dennis?” Time for me to put my mouth where my foot is so here’s this week’s lesson in financial analysis and requlatory reporting regime design. In this case, all you city councils, county boards of supervisors and state legislatures please pay close attention. The City of Los Angeles desires to annually assess using objective data on the specific “local economy impact” of banks wishing to do business with the City. These data will be used as part of the City’s criteria to qualify the eligibility of banks to conduct such business. The City further specifies that these objective tests be based on “evidentiary grade” public document data submittals and that the City wishes to create an effective solution to capturing this data that can be scaled for use by other government entities similarly interested in “local” efficacy measurement. 1. All banks are required to submit quarterly Call Reports to the FDIC as all credit unions are similarly required to do so with the NCUA within 30 days of the end of each operating quarter. The City is aware that these Call Reports are entity wide reports that are not locality specific however it does imply that the reporting infrastructure to file these reports exists. 2. All banks are also required to file a branch level of detail Summary of Deposits report commensurate with the FDIC timed to coincide with the June 30th (2nd Quarter) Call filing each year. 3. Evaluation categories, a. Local institutions: These will be defined as financial institutions with depository and lending operations contained within Los Angeles, Orange, Santa Barbara and Riverside counties. The economic impact of these institutions will be considered to fall within a City of Los Angeles greater economic zone benefitting the resident and commuter populations of the City. The primary test for qualifying as a local institution will be their listing of branch locations as reported in the most recent FDIC Summary of Deposits reference file. b. Broad-Based institutions: Broad-based institutions are depository and lending operations with greater than 10% business activity in locations outside of zip codes contained within the economic inclusion zone. In the case of multiple unit bank holding companies (BHC’s), the broadness test for an institution will be considered taking into account all of the banking units of the BHC. 4. Annual reporting data, a. For local institutions, the June 30th FDIC Call Report or NCUA 5300 filing shall serve as the basis of analysis. b. For broad-based institutions, a special June 30th Call Report styled equivalent filing encompassing just those branches identified within the zip codes of the Los Angeles economy zone detailing lending information of interest to the City shall serve as the basis for analysis and comparison against local institutions. (final requirements TBD to be identified by the yet to be commissioned L.A. Banking Practices Committee) c. All institutions are to additionally file an annual statement detailing their past year performance on loan modifications and access by “unbanked and underbanked” persons specifically within the Los Angeles area as well as a statement on their goals for the coming year. These goals to be part of each succeeding year’s performance evaluation. (Again, the specifics of what the statement needs to have in it should be delegated to a commission of specialists to ensure the best possible capture of objectivity.) I’ve rambled almost enough. I’ll end this section with one additional message to the FDIC and NCUA. You can make this process a lot easier on America by adding the most critical pieces of information on lending to the data collection set and output fields of the SOD file. That would enable scaling the process to apply across the nation as a level playing field. I’m more than happy to help draft a Notice of Proposed Rule Making to facilitate. Hey so what ya’ll wanna bet all them prarie dogs in banking are looking up right about now wondering what that cracking sound that just went overhead was? And now a side trip into swaps. This is actually more my partner Chris Whalen’s commenting territory and I’ll leave it to him to do any definitive banter on the topic elsewhere but it seems that Los Angeles got talked into one of those “hey sovereign government you know you can lessen the cost of your municipal bond issuance by also purchasing a swap deal with it” things. This one was a good deal for the City the first four years as interest rates chugged along normally but when Ben Bernanke decided the Fed was going to artificially drive interest rates to zero percent to save Manhattan Island from itself it put the City of L.A. in the awkward position of shelling out $10 million a year in windfall profit money to the Bank of New York – Mellon on a deal that last until 2028 OR the City can buy out of it for $29 million which by the way is equal to three years of payments aka one business cycle of look ahead modeling aka about where Ben Bernanke might have changed interest rates in God knows what direction by then territory. Read the world’s newspaper about sovereign debt boys and girls. They aren’t the only ones that got nailed with that one. My mechanic likes to point out whenever I try to play with my car too much that “it costs money to go to the school of hard knocks”. But a Federal Reserve artificial windfall and there was no pre-packed out in the deal structure protecting both parties against severe non-normal departures from the projected interest rate curve model at deal instantiation? Hmm? I think I’ll leave this one here for the moment. It’s time to close the kimono for the weekend. This one had a lot of babble not normally exposed to ordinary people. Hope you’re being entertained.

Read the full article →

Sarah O’Leary: Bad News Couldn’t Come at a Better Time for Toyota

February 26, 2010

If you’re an automotive company dealing with a massive recall, pray for a bad economy and look to maximize your opportunities. If bad was going to happen to Toyota, their timing couldn’t be better. It’s public knowledge that there aren’t many people entering into the new car market these days. Like other automotives, Toyota isn’t missing out on much. If the economy was healthy, the PR nightmare of such an enormous recall could potentially be devastating. In a poor economy, however, people are much more apt to hold onto their cars for longer, looking to repair rather than buy. This buys Toyota much needed time. The average ownership in a good economy is several years, and even longer when things go south. Current Toyota owners affected by the recall purchased their cars in recent years, so it’s fair to estimate they’ll be holding onto them for several years to come even if the economy improves. This gives time for memories to soften, and gives Toyota a real opportunity – yes, I said opportunity – to grow a loyal following in the process. True, dealerships have been faced with repairs in the tens of thousands. But many Toyota owners probably last saw their dealership when they purchased or when the warranty was running out, choosing instead to get servicing done for potentially less money elsewhere. And this, if it can think on its feet, spells opportunity for Toyota. Typically the most profitable area at a car dealership is its service department. Toyota has a chance to win owners back (and drum up some business in the process) with strategic interpersonal intervention. In order to succeed, the owners who come in for recall repairs need to feel appreciated. Dealerships can do this in a number of ways, with the hopes of turning a negative into a positive experience that can continue for the life of the car ownership. When owners arrive, offer a free car wash. Their time is valuable, and most dealerships have car washes. Provide beverages and snacks while they wait. Have the head of sales or other dealership big wig offer them Toyota’s sincere apology. To get them back for service within 6 months, a move they probably wouldn’t make on their own, give owners a free basic inspection certificate. (Coupons don’t work as effectively as certificates or gift cards, especially with men). The bounce back effort will allow the service department the opportunity to have a positive interaction with the owner, and give the dealership an opportunity to sell additional products and services. It also probably wouldn’t hurt dealerships to announce that, because of hard economic times, they’ve lowered their service department pricing for loyal Toyota consumers. Every bit of good news will help improve consumer perception. After an owner returns home with his/her repaired car, send a letter co-signed by the dealership owner and head of the service department. Any actions that make them feel that their initial purchase decision was not in error will help them reconcile their feelings about the brand. Next to a home it’s the biggest purchase decision most consumers make, and they don’t want to feel they made a huge mistake. Toyota corporate let dealerships and owners down. If it acts quickly, however, it has a chance to make things right. Sarah O’Leary is a marketing industry veteran and owner of Logic Marketing for Sales. Toyota and all others looking for advisement can reach the agency at info@thelogicagency.com.

Read the full article →

New York City May Get 18 Inches of Snow as Wind Brings Blizzard Conditions

February 26, 2010

By Brian K. Sullivan and Alex Morales Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) — New York City closed all public schools as the U.S. National Weather Service extended its winter storm warning for the metropolitan area until 6 a.m. tomorrow, saying the city faced “near-blizzard” conditions. The storm, which began about 8 a.m. yesterday, is forecast to leave 18 inches (46 centimeters) or more as it lashes the largest U.S. city with winds up to 35 mph (56 kph). By 6 a.m., 16.9 inches had fallen in Central Park, the agency said. “An intense storm will drift from Connecticut southwestward into the New York City metropolitan area today,” the service said. Snow, wind and ice “will make travel very hazardous or impossible.” Airlines including Continental Airlines Inc. canceled hundreds of flights after snow began falling yesterday. Speculation that the snows would reduce demand for motor fuel contributed to a drop in gasoline futures. All New York City public schools will close today because of the snow, the city’s Department of Education said on its Web site . AccuWeather Inc. warned of downed trees and power lines and said winds may cause whiteouts in some areas. A man was killed by a falling tree branch in New York’s Central Park, WNBC reported. “This will be a heavy wet snow and will be more difficult than usual to shovel, possibly causing back, shoulder and wrist injuries, and even heart attacks if not handled properly,” the weather service said. Second Storm The current system is the second winter storm of the week for the U.S. Northeast. It came just weeks after parts of the mid-Atlantic region set seasonal records for snowfall. Gasoline for March delivery declined 6.17 cents, or 2.9 percent, to settle yesterday at $2.037 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange. “Demand numbers are going to be annihilated by the bad weather,” said Ray Carbone , president of Paramount Options Inc. in New York and a trader at the Nymex. New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority said on its Web site that all subways, buses, railroads, bridges and tunnels will operate a “normal or near-normal morning rush hour,” except for the Metro-North Railroad, which will run a special service , with 5-to-10 minute delays possible. More than 1,500 flights were halted across the Northeast yesterday, most of them in New York, Boston and Philadelphia. That represented about 3 percent of the 50,000 flights scheduled in the U.S. this time of year, according to FlightStats.com , a Web site that tracks aircraft movements. Flights Canceled Continental canceled flights including all 200 of its regional partner airlines from Newark’s Liberty International Airport, said Mary Clark , a spokeswoman for the carrier. Amtrak canceled eight trains on its Empire Service line in upstate New York yesterday. Some service between New York City and Albany-Rensselaer was temporarily reduced. CSX Corp., which owns the line, repairs tracks and systems damaged by trees, said Tracy Connell , a spokeswoman for the passenger railway. CSX, the third-largest U.S. railroad by revenue, said its customers should expect delays during “the worst of the storm” and that its effects will linger through the weekend. The lines are used by shippers including coal producers. Two crude oil tankers put off unloading in Portland, Maine, at least until today, said Tony Youells, port manager for Inchcape Shipping Services , a shipping agent. Waves as high as 25 feet are forecast in the waters off Maine according to the National Weather Sevice. ‘Battering Waves’ “Large battering waves will cause a prolonged period of beach erosion with periods of significant splash-over and possible coastal flooding near the times of high tide,” the service’s office in Gray, Maine, said in an advisory. Winter storm warnings, meaning heavy snow, ice and freezing rain are imminent, were issued from Maryland to Maine. Blizzard warnings stretched from the mountains of North Carolina into West Virginia. Warnings for gusts as high as 65 miles per hour were posted for parts of North Carolina, Virginia, Vermont, Maryland and the District of Columbia. About 75,000 customers in New York and New England were already without power as the storm moved through the Northeast, according to utilities. A system brought rain to New York City and almost two feet of snow to western Massachusetts starting Feb. 23, disrupting air traffic in Newark, Boston, Baltimore and New York. To contact the reporters on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net ; Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Grantham’s `Horrifically Early’ Forecasts Are Challenge for GMO, Followers

February 26, 2010

By Charles Stein Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) — Jeremy Grantham warned in January 2000 that U.S. equities were “more overpriced than at any time in the last 70 years due to the massive overpricing of technology and especially dot-com stocks.” By the end of 2002, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index had fallen 40 percent and technology shares were down 73 percent. The forecast didn’t help his firm, Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo Co., because he’d been bearish since 1997. Assets declined 45 percent in the late 1990s as customers sought out better- performing mutual funds that liked the technology stocks Grantham disdained. Grantham said in an interview that his negative calls are often so early that investors who acted on them gave up gains before prices peaked. He recommended avoiding Japanese stocks more than two years before they started falling at the end of 1989. While his timing doesn’t deter fans like former Harvard University endowment manager Jack Meyer , it requires a delicate balancing act by GMO, which oversees $107 billion. “We lost business like it was going out of style,” the 71-year-old Grantham said of his dot-com prediction at a Jan. 28 speech to investment advisers in Boston, the home of GMO, which he co-founded in 1977. GMO’s funds usually don’t fully adopt his recommendations, or hedge their bets, underscoring the difference between being a star strategist and successful money manager. That’s true for the fund Grantham works most closely with, GMO Global Balanced Asset Allocation , which oversees $3.1 billion. Setting Off Alarms The tension between acting on a long-term vision and keeping clients happy in the short run is a fact of life for all money managers, said Charles Lieberman , chief investment officer at Advisors Capital Management LLC in Hasbrouck Heights, New Jersey, which oversees about $190 million. “The issue is: Are you willing to stick your neck out and how far?” he said in a telephone interview. The tension is heightened at GMO, where Grantham’s warnings of investment bubbles have at times sent customers packing for firms with a more upbeat view of the markets. “If we are too aggressive, and we don’t get it right, we run the risk of being fired,” Ben Inker , GMO’s head of asset allocation, said in a telephone interview. Two of Grantham’s most recent forecasts were right — and timely. Emerging Markets In 2007, he wrote in his newsletter that all asset classes were overvalued and it was time to sell high-risk securities. GMO’s $2 billion Emerging Country Debt Fund , which held high- yielding securities from countries such as Venezuela and Argentina, decided to stick with those investments in 2008. “Every bet we made turned out to be wrong,” Thomas Cooper, the fund’s co-manager, recalled in an August interview, pointing out that investors sought out safer securities during the financial crisis. The fund lost 33 percent in 2008, and the following April GMO was fired by the Massachusetts state pension system as manager of $230 million in emerging-market debt. The fund bounced back, returning 50 percent in 2009. Its 14 percent annual return over the past 10 years made it the best performing bond fund, according to Chicago-based Morningstar Inc. “Jeremy has been a great long-term investor,” said Meyer, who ran Harvard’s endowment for 15 years until 2006, when he left the Cambridge, Massachusetts, university, to start Convexity Capital Management LP, a Boston-based fund manager. Grantham was ahead of the pack in the 1990s identifying the value of emerging-market stocks, inflation-adjusted securities and timber, Meyer said in a telephone interview. ‘No Justice’ In March 2009, when the S&P 500 index bottomed out at 676, Grantham wrote that fair value for the benchmark of the largest U.S. stocks was 900, or 33 percent higher. By July, with the index above that mark, Grantham concluded U.S. stocks had become too expensive again. “After 20 years of more or less permanent overpricing, we get five months of underpricing,” he told newsletter readers. “There is no justice in life.” The fair value of the S&P 500 today is 850, 23 percent below yesterday’s close of 1103.94, said Grantham. He arrives at that valuation by assuming a long-term average price-to-earnings ratio of about 15 for U.S. stocks and applying it to a long-term average for profit margins. Grantham is chief investment strategist at GMO, whose assets have risen almost fivefold since 2000. Its more than 40 mutual funds usually require a minimum investment of $10 million and are aimed mainly at institutions such as pension funds and endowments, according to the firm’s Web site. The firm also acts as a sub-adviser on several retail mutual funds. Drawing A Crowd In his appearance in Boston, Grantham, who is whippet-thin with a full head of gray hair, wore a dark suit and a pink tie with giraffes. Until the past few years, he played in a weekly soccer game to stay in shape. Over the course of 45 minutes, he poked fun at the investment business and himself. Recalling the five-month period in which he considered U.S. stocks inexpensive, Grantham said, “I refer to it as my very short life as a bull.” After the speech, more than a dozen advisers gathered around Grantham, peppering him with questions about everything from China to the U.S. budget deficit. “He’s got the perspective of someone who has been in the battle for a long time,” said Robert Henkel, an adviser from Portsmouth, New Hampshire, explaining why he sought out Grantham for a private conversation. Current Outlook Grantham’s favorite asset class today is high-quality U.S. stocks, companies defined by high, stable returns and low debt. The allocation fund had 31 percent of its money in that category at year-end, sometimes called blue chips, according to the GMO Web site. In the interview, he said he expects such stocks to return an average of 6.8 percent a year over the next seven years, compared with 1.3 percent for all large-cap U.S. stocks. Emerging-market stocks may rise about 4 percent annually in the next seven years, as investor enthusiasm for economic growth in developing countries carries the stocks to unsustainable levels, Grantham said. “Why not go along for the ride?” he said. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned an average of 22 percent in the past seven years, compared with a gain of 5.5 percent by the S&P 500 index. U.S. government bonds will return 1.1 percent a year over the seven-year period, according to the latest GMO forecast. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. Treasury Master Index rose 4.3 percent from 2003 through 2009. Grantham said he expects a difficult, not disastrous, period for the economy and investments. “It will feel like the 1970s,” he said. “One step forward, one step back.” ‘Flaky Little Companies’ Grantham was raised in Yorkshire, England, and has a bachelor’s degree from Sheffield University. His father was a civil engineer who died in World War II. “Yorkshiremen have a well-deserved reputation for a highly developed sense of value,” he wrote in a follow-up e-mail. “In other words, they’re cheap.” Grantham came to the United States to go to Harvard Business School in Boston. Following graduation in 1966, he spent several years as a self-described speculator, borrowing money to invest in “flaky little companies I hardly knew,” he said in the interview. After he suffered large losses in 1969, “it brought out my deeper instincts to be a contrarian,” he said. Dean LeBaron That year Grantham co-founded Batterymarch Financial Management Inc., a Boston firm that is now owned by Baltimore- based Legg Mason Inc. At Batterymarch, Grantham and co-founder Dean LeBaron were among the first to offer clients the chance to invest in indexes, according to the book “Common Sense on Mutual Funds” by John Bogle, who started Vanguard Group Inc., the Valley Forge, Pennsylvania-based mutual-fund firm. In 1997, Grantham and his wife created a foundation to protect the global environment. In 2007, the couple donated $23.6 million to Imperial College London to establish an institute on climate change. “This is the most important economic and social issue of the 21st century,” Grantham wrote in the e-mail. Grantham, as a member of GMO’s asset-allocation team, makes recommendations to the firm’s 114 investment professionals. They are free to accept or reject the advice. GMO Global Balanced Asset Allocation fund returned 6.8 percent in the past decade, a performance topped by 4 out of 50 rival funds, according to data from Chicago-based Morningstar Inc. Focus on Benchmark The GMO fund attempts to beat its benchmark, a blend of 65 percent global stocks and 35 percent U.S. bonds, by 2 percent to 3 percent a year, according to the firm’s Web site. The benchmark returned less than 1 percent a year in the past decade, according to the GMO Web site. The fund will make “significant” bets, within limits, on asset classes such as emerging-market stocks or real estate, said Inker, who is a co-manager. The fund generally keeps at least 45 percent to 50 percent of its money in stocks, he said. “We are as aggressive as we can get away with, but not more aggressive,” said Inker. Grantham is best known for his quarterly newsletters, which have appeared since 1999. The publications, which run as many as 18 pages, represent his personal views on the stock market, sprinkled with acerbic comments on subjects such as private equity and Federal Reserve policy. Last October, he compared giving Ben Bernanke a second term as Fed chairman to reappointing the captain of the Titantic. Newsletter Fans The newsletters have a following among investors large and small. Chuck Levin, a financial planner in Wayland, Massachusetts, admires them for their “salient and clear thoughts on investment.” Levin doesn’t necessarily follow Grantham’s advice, particularly when the strategist is bearish on stocks. “I am not going to tell my clients to put all their money into cash,” he said in a telephone interview. “Who has the courage to do that?” Jack Ablin , who helps manage $55 billion as chief investment officer at Chicago-based Harris Bank, regularly reads Grantham. “When he gets bullish, that’s when you have to sit up and take notice,” Ablin said in a telephone interview. Jeremy Siegel , who has squared off with Grantham in a series of bull-bear debates over the past decade, said Grantham can cost investors money by being so early with his calls. “There have been periods when he would have kept people out of the market while it was still rising,” said Siegel, a finance professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia and author of the book “Stocks for The Long Run.” No ‘Permabear’ Grantham dismisses his “permabear’” label, saying that in 2000 he was bullish on emerging-market stocks, real estate investment trusts and inflation-adjusted bonds. GMO data show that the three asset classes returned between 4.9 percent and 8.1 percent a year in the 10 years ended Dec. 31. The S&P 500 lost 1 percent a year over the same stretch. Looking back on more than 40 years in the investment business, Grantham summed up his career this way: “We win all the bets but we are horrifically early,” he said. To contact the reporter on this story: Charles Stein in Boston at cstein4@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

South Korean Wins Figure Skating, American Gets Nordic Gold

February 26, 2010

By Erik Matuszewski Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) — Kim Yu-na set a world record in winning South Korea’s first Olympic figure skating title, capping a day on which Bill Demong took the first American gold medal in Nordic combined to keep the U.S. atop the medal standings. Germany and Canada also won Olympic titles yesterday at the Vancouver Games to remain tied with the U.S. with eight gold medals each. The U.S. has 32 total medals to lead all nations. Viktoria Rebensburg became the first German in 54 years to win the women’s giant slalom, and the Canadians won the women’s Olympic hockey title for the third straight time by beating the U.S. 2-0 in the final. “It’s so special,” Canada forward Hayley Wickenheiser said of winning the gold medal. “I don’t know if it’s sunk in yet. You grow up in Canada, you know the expectations.” The U.S. overall medal total is six more than Germany’s 26. Norway has 19, followed by Canada with 17. Kim, 19, gave South Korea its sixth gold medal of the Games by winning the figure skating title at the Pacific Coliseum in Vancouver with a record score of 228.56 points. “I can’t believe this day has finally come for me,” Kim said in a televised interview. Kim’s Record Night Kim, the reigning world champion, broke the record of 210.03 points she set last year during a competition in Paris. Japan’s Mao Asada took the silver medal and Canada’s Joannie Rochette received the bronze. Rochette’s mother died of a heart attack in Vancouver four days before last night’s free skate program. American Mirai Nagasu, 16, finished fourth with a score of 190.15. Japan’s Miki Ando , 22, was fifth, followed by Rachel Flatt , 17, of the U.S. Demong won the Nordic combined event, which includes ski jumping off the larger of two hills and a 10-kilometer cross-country ski race, by finishing four seconds ahead of silver medalist Johnny Spillane of the U.S. Austria’s Bernhard Gruber took the bronze after he was unable to keep up with the Americans in the final 500 meters. Spillane had been the first American to win any medal in Nordic combined when he took a silver medal in the normal hill competition 11 days ago. The U.S. also won a silver medal in the team 20-kilometer relay on Feb. 23. ‘New Heights’ “Our team has reached new heights,” Demong, 29, said during a news conference in Whistler, British Columbia. “Maybe Johnny will be the only one in the room to believe me, but I don’t think either one of us cared who got first or second.” Alexei Grishin won the freestyle skiing men’s aerials for Belarus’s first gold medal in a Winter Games. After Canada’s women defended their Olympic hockey title, the Canadian men’s team will seek a spot in the gold medal game with a semifinal matchup today against Slovakia. The U.S. faces Finland in the other semifinal. The men’s ice hockey championship is the last medal event on the final day of the Olympics, Feb. 28. Canadian Curlers The Canadian women’s curling team plays for gold today against Sweden, while Canada’s men remained undefeated yesterday to set up a gold-medal match with Norway tomorrow. Sweden’s Anja Paerson aims to defend her Olympic slalom title from Turin today in the final women’s Alpine skiing event of the Games. Paerson has won two bronze medals in Vancouver, giving her six career Olympic medals. Maria Riesch of Germany and Marlies Schild of Austria also are considered top contenders. Lindsey Vonn of the U.S. will pursue her third medal of the Games with a fractured bone in her finger, suffered during a crash in the giant slalom. Three gold medals will be awarded today in short track speedskating. Defending Olympic champion Apolo Ohno of the U.S. competes in the men’s 500-meter race in pursuit of his eighth career Olympic medal. There are also finals in the women’s 1,000 meters and the men’s 5,000-meter relay. Biathlon’s final medals are contested in the men’s 30- kilometer relay, while snowboarders seek gold in the women’s parallel giant slalom. To contact the reporter on this story: Erik Matuszewski in Vancouver, at matuszewski@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

`Lepers’ in London Defend Their Right to Make Money as Election Approaches

February 25, 2010

By Simon Clark Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) — Under the stained-glass gaze of William Shakespeare, Charles Cara struggles to defend another British icon: the City of London. “How do you make the case that making money is good if losses get nationalized?” Cara, an analyst at Absolute Strategy Research Ltd. , said at a Jan. 14 conference in a Victorian school hall by the River Thames now occupied by JPMorgan Chase & Co. “The banking crisis has shown that there are costs, and those costs tend to get thrown onto the citizen.” Bankers in London’s financial center, which Mayor Boris Johnson called a “leper colony,” are battling to justify their right to make money and to prove their social value after British taxpayers assumed liabilities of more than 800 billion pounds ($1.23 trillion) to bail out the country’s lenders. With elections less than four months away, a debate once confined to universities and churches has become more than academic. Prime Minister Gordon Brown , whose ruling Labour Party wooed financiers before and after taking office in 1997, and opposition Conservative leader David Cameron are turning publicly on the City, Europe’s largest financial center and a focus of trade for almost 2,000 years. Brown lambasted the “bankrupt ideology” of free market “fundamentalism” at his party’s conference in September and pledged to make banks “the servant of people.” In October, Cameron vowed to promote “quality of life” as well as “quantity of money.” He wouldn’t change Brown’s decision to raise the rate of income tax for the highest earners to 50 percent. “The rich will pay their share,” he said. ‘Corroded Trust’ “There is a crisis of values and of value,” Ken Costa , chairman of investment bank Lazard International , said in a Jan. 19 lecture in the City. “Politically and socially it has corroded trust in financial institutions and those thought to run and regulate them.” Financial services employ 1 million Britons and accounted for 10.1 percent of the U.K.’s gross domestic product and 27.5 percent of corporate taxes in 2007, according to the government and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. Yet three decades after former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher won power by campaigning for free markets and against labor unions, Britain’s main political parties are distancing themselves from the City. “For many, the City has been opaque, shrouded in mystery, revealing itself only to announce enormous profits or to deal with some form of scandal,” U.K. Treasury Minister Paul Myners , a former fund manager, said in a November debate organized by the Council of Christians and Jews. “Now the City is in the limelight again, and again for the wrong reasons.” ‘Leper Colony’ Bankers have been cast as “pariahs” working in a “leper colony,” Mayor Johnson told fellow members of the Conservative Party at their annual conference in October. Politically, the City is in a “very strange period,” Nick Anstee , the 682nd lord mayor of the City of London, said in an interview. Lawmakers are currying favor with the electorate by attacking the banks, he said. “And that is singularly unacceptable,” Anstee said. “Particularly in fact because some politicians need to look at themselves and wonder at the extent to which they were culpable and responsible for what has happened.” Politicians from both the Labour and Conservative parties are calling for tougher regulation after what the government once heralded as the U.K.’s “light touch” was later blamed for doing nothing to prevent rampant risk-taking. A Conservative government would transfer banking regulation to the Bank of England within a year, according to Cameron. Divided City City stalwarts are divided on what to do. Terry Smith , chairman of Collins Stewart Plc , Britain’s biggest independent stockbroker, said investment banks and retail banks must be separated to end the “insuperable conflict of interest” that he blames for causing the financial crisis. John Varley , chief executive officer of Barclays Plc, and Stephen Green , chairman of HSBC Holdings Plc, are among bankers who oppose bank breakups. Separating retail and investment banks will “simply put up the price of retail and commercial banking services,” British Bankers’ Association CEO Angela Knight said in an interview. Banks are solving their problems by holding more capital and increasing capital in their riskiest business units, she said. Taking Responsibility Brown must call the election by June and whoever wins needs to act to preserve the City as a place where Britons and non- Britons alike can make money, said Smith, who is also CEO of Tullett Prebon Plc , a London-based firm that matches securities trades between banks. The millionaire son of a London bus driver said City firms must take responsibility for failure. “Every year that the banks made a profit, a large part of it went to individuals who are now regarded badly by the general public,” said Smith, based in Tower 42 in the City. “As soon as banks made a loss, the general public had to pay.” The separation of investment banking and consumer banking is vital to reform the City, Smith said in an interview. “You can’t combine in the same organization research, broking, market making, mergers and acquisition advice and lending,” Smith said. “I would like to see politicians and regulators get to the root-cause of the problem so that our financial services center is better regulated than others.” Cash Injection The government now owns stakes in lenders including Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Lloyds Banking Group Plc and has extended insurance guarantees too. The 45.5 billion-pound rescue of RBS was the world’s costliest bank bailout. In addition, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King has pumped new money into the economy through a process of buying assets called quantitative easing. King spelled out to lawmakers on Nov. 24 why the global financial crisis is so significant for the U.K. “The only hope we have of retaining an international banking sector” is if taxpayers and global bond investors “stop worrying about the fact the U.K. government might have to stand behind a banking sector that’s five times GDP,” King said. By contrast, the size of the U.S. banking industry is less than one times GDP, he said. London’s rise as a modern finance center accelerated in the 1980s under Thatcher. The City became the world leader in cross- border bank lending after her government introduced policies in 1986, known as the Big Bang, which allowed London Stock Exchange member firms to be bought by outsiders. International banks bought most of Britain’s major securities firms after that, including Citigroup Inc.’s purchase of Schroders Plc’s investment banking unit in 2000. It was also in 1986 when the City of London School for Boys moved out of the site now occupied by JPMorgan. Hosting Banks Allowing non-U.K. banks to dominate the City was termed “Wimbledonization” by former Bank of England Governor Eddie George . As with the tennis competition, Britain earned money from hosting the event even if it struggled to provide a winner. “It is the activity rather than the nationality of ownership which creates a competitive marketplace,” George said at a banking conference in Vienna in 2001. Brown embraced that in 10 years as chancellor of the exchequer. In a 2007 speech at Mansion House, the lord mayor’s residence, Brown celebrated that a third of the world’s currency trading took place in the City — more than in New York and Tokyo combined, he said, as he pledged to “maintain a competitive tax regime.” “This is an era that history will record as the beginning of a new golden age for the City of London,” Brown said. “Britain needs more of the vigor, the ingenuity, the aspiration that you demonstrate daily and is the hallmark of your success.” KPMG Report In 2009, Brown decided to raise the top rate of income tax and introduced a one-time levy on bankers’ bonuses, making London more expensive for residents earning 1 million pounds a year than New York, Hong Kong or Paris, according to accounting firm KPMG, whose U.K. headquarters is in the City. Mayor Johnson said in January that as many as 9,000 bankers may leave the U.K. as a result of the tax on their bonuses. So far, that hasn’t happened. Many Britons see the City as benefiting more from the nation than it contributes. “When the City got into trouble, it turned to the nation for help,” said Maurice Glasman , a politics lecturer at London Metropolitan University . “Before the crisis, the City was saying that it was a global player that needed to be free of national constraints.” ‘Part of the Problem’ Glasman is also a member of London Citizens, a non-profit that says it represents 150 organizations including schools and churches, which is campaigning for part of the bailout funds to be used to benefit British regions. For Terry Smith, just as City companies must take responsibility for mistakes, so must British citizens and the state, which has run up the biggest deficit among G-20 nations. “People have got to realize that they are part of the problem,” he said. “The City and banks were the instruments of their overindulgence.” In the old City of London School hall across the River Thames from Shakespeare’s Globe Theatre , where characters from Hamlet to the Merchant of Venice act out their fates, analyst Cara argues for the social utility of the banks, brokerages and other firms in London’s financial district. “Payment systems, insurance, pension funds, these are all very socially useful,” Cara said. “Look at ship broking: If you couldn’t get goods from the manufacturers on different continents, world trade would end,” he said. “You’ve got to make sure that state rescues come with a price for management, for the employees — and also for investors.” To contact the reporter on this story: Simon Clark in London at sclark4@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Deutsche Telekom Reports Surprise Loss as Greek Budget Crisis Raises Costs

February 25, 2010

By Ragnhild Kjetland Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) — Deutsche Telekom AG , Europe’s biggest phone company, posted a loss in the fourth quarter, primarily on a writedown in the value of its Greek unit. The Bonn-based company reported a net loss of 3 million euros ($4.04 million) on a 500 million-euro impairment charge, it said in a statement today. Analysts had predicted a profit of 597.6 million euros, the average of seven estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The company sees lower 2010 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. “The outlook was slightly disappointing,” said Theo Kitz , an analyst at Merck Finck & Co. in Munich. “The company had given the impression that we might get a forecast for unchanged Ebitda. Instead they guided for a slight decrease.” A Greek writedown had been widely expected, Kitz said, although analysts hadn’t known when it would be booked. The Greek financial crisis and the rise in the country’s interest rates led to a reduction in the value of Hellenic Telecommunications Organization, which is about 30 percent owned by Deutsche Telekom. Deutsche Telekom paid 3.8 billion euros for its stake, which is now valued at 1.31 billion euros based on Hellenic’s market value. Fourth-quarter sales rose 0.6 percent to 16.2 billion euros. In the year-earlier period, Deutsche had a net loss of 730 million euros on 1.1 billion euros in impairment charges and one-time expenses related to job cuts. Cost Cuts Deutsche Telekom slid 0.1 percent to 9.51 euros at 10:55 a.m. in Frankfurt trading. Before today, the stock had lost 7.5 percent this year. Chief Executive Officer Rene Obermann is banking on cost cuts to stem declining profit as the economic slump slows demand for phone services. He slashed expenses by 5.9 billion euros between 2005 and 2009. Deutsche Telekom said today it plans to cut costs by 4.2 billion euros by the end of 2012. “Cost discipline was key to getting through economically challenging times,” he said in the statement. The group’s investments in 2010 will be slightly higher than in 2009, he said at a briefing today. “We expect to largely maintain this level of investment over the next two years,” he said. “At the same time, we will not be making any multi-billion-euro acquisitions.” Expense cuts and rising sales in emerging markets led Vodafone Group Plc , the world’s largest mobile-phone company, this month to raise its full-year cash flow forecast. BT Group Plc, the U.K.’s biggest fixed-line operator, said earnings rose 11 percent in the fourth quarter before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and costs to cut jobs. Outlook Deutsche Telekom predicts adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in 2010 of 20 billion euros, down from 20.67 billion euros in 2009. It expects free cash flow of about 6.2 billion euros, compared with 7 billion euros in 2009. “The outlook is a little more cautious than I expected,” said Guy Peddy , an analyst with Macquarie Securities Group in London. Fourth-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose 8.6 percent to 5.07 billion euros. Analysts had estimated 16.3 billion euros in sales and adjusted Ebitda of 5.04 billion euros. Yesterday, the company proposed a dividend of 0.78 euros per share for 2009, unchanged from the last two years. It said for the years 2010 through 2012 it is proposing a dividend of at least 0.70 euros per share and share buyback, with up to a total amount of 3.4 billion euros per year. U.S. Operations In the U.S., the company expanded its network and added new handsets to win back customers. Amid the economic slump, T- Mobile USA has faced competition from discount operators and companies offering faster data transfer on smartphones. In the fourth quarter, T-Mobile USA returned to customer growth, adding 371,000, after having lost 77,000 customers in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2008, it had added 621,000 new customers. Sales at the U.S. business fell 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter and operating income before depreciation and amortization fell 12 percent. On Feb. 16, board member Guido Kerkhoff said in an interview that the U.S. business was “back on track” and able to “compete.” Earlier in the month, the company was reported to be considering all options for T-Mobile USA Inc., including an initial public offering, according to three people familiar with the matter. To contact the reporter on this story: Ragnhild Kjetland in Frankfurt rkjetland@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

New York City May Get as Much as 13 Inches of Snow Starting Early Thursday

February 24, 2010

By Brian K. Sullivan Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) — The National Weather Service boosted its forecast for tomorrow’s snowstorm in New York City, saying that as much as 13 inches may fall and that travel in the region may be “very hazardous or impossible.” A winter storm warning goes into effect at 6 a.m. tomorrow. It calls for 7 to 13 inches (18 to 33 centimeters), up from earlier predictions of 5 to 10 inches, according to a weather service bulletin . The storm may be accompanied by wind gusts as high as 30 mph before it abates about 36 hours later. “Expect the steadiest and heaviest snow to fall from mid- morning Thursday through Thursday evening,” according to the statement. “Snow may mix with rain for brief periods of time on Thursday. If no mixing-in occurs, amounts will be up towards the higher end of the range, if not more.” The storm is the latest in an El Nino-driven weather pattern that has pushed moist air across the southern U.S., where it has mixed with colder air coming down from the Arctic, said Matt Rogers , president of private forecaster Commodity Weather Group in Bethesda, Maryland. The result has been record-breaking seasonal snows from Washington to Philadelphia. El Nino is a warming of the Pacific Ocean that occurs every two to five years and lasts about 12 months. Flights Canceled Continental Airlines Inc. , the fourth-largest U.S. carrier, canceled all flights tomorrow from Newark Liberty International Airport by regional partners including Continental Express and Pinnacle Airlines Corp.’s Colgan unit, said Mary Clark , a spokeswoman for the Houston-based carrier. The cancellations involve “several hundred” flights, Clark said. She didn’t immediately have a more specific number. Delta Air Lines Inc. , the world’s largest carrier, scrubbed 65 flights in the New York area for tomorrow, said Susan Elliott , a spokeswoman for the Atlanta-based company. UAL Corp. ’s United Airlines scrapped 70 flights today because of weather and is “still evaluating our plan for tomorrow,” said Sarah Massier, a spokeswoman. Amtrak canceled 8 trains for tomorrow on its Empire Service lines in the upstate New York area, said a spokeswoman, Karina Romero . A winter storm warning, meaning heavy snow, ice and freezing rain are imminent, has been issued from Maryland to Maine, according to the weather service. In northern New Jersey , as much as 18 inches of snow may fall, the agency said. ‘Strong Winds’ Possible “Strong winds are also possible,” the weather service statement for New York and New Jersey said. “This will make travel very hazardous or impossible.” In Massachusetts, southern New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Connecticut, where as much as 3 inches of rain may fall, flood watches have been issued. “It is a really complicated system, it is like a three- part deal,” Rogers said. “It is definitely going to be what they call a bomb in meteorology.” Tomorrow’s snow will be from the second storm to hit the area this week. A system brought rain to New York City and almost two feet of snow to western Massachusetts starting yesterday, disrupting air traffic in Newark, Boston, Baltimore and New York. “The Northeast is being impacted by one storm now, and the monster storm is going to impact the region tomorrow into Friday,” Eric Wilhelm of private forecaster AccuWeather.com . said earlier today. “A really complex situation is developing in the Northeast.” Power Failures Likely On the Massachusetts coast, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected with gusts as intense as 50 mph, according to a weather service high wind watch issued for the area. “There could be real problems with power outages,” Wilhelm said. “That could be the real legacy of this storm.” More than 50,000 customers in the Albany area and western Massachusetts are already without power from the storm moving north through New England today, according to utilities. High winds may also create wind-chill problems that will drive energy consumption, Rogers said. Temperatures in the region are expected to be in the 30s Fahrenheit, while the wind will make it feel colder. Demand for heating oil may be 8 percent above normal through March 3, according to Weather Derivatives , a Belton, Missouri, forecaster. Heating oil for March delivery rose 0.98 cent, or 0.5 percent, today to settle at $2.0421 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Snowfall for Washington The Washington-Baltimore corridor has the potential to receive as much as 5 inches of snow in the storm, according to Brandon Peloquin, a weather service meteorologist in Sterling, Virginia . “There is some uncertainty with this storm,” Peloquin said by telephone. “There is some wiggle room. The track is critical.” The storms will add to what’s already been a benchmark winter in the eastern U.S., where seasonal snowfall records were broken in Washington and Baltimore. Most of that snow has melted away, Peloquin said. The heavy snow will taper off the day after tomorrow, although snow flurries and clouds will linger over much of the Northeast through the weekend, Wilhelm said. To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net ;

Read the full article →

Brain-Eating Zombies Invade Disney in Iger Spending Spree to Win Boy Fans

February 24, 2010

By Seth Lubove and Andy Fixmer Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) — When Walt Disney Co. asked publisher Dan Vado to make a series of comic books based on its Haunted Mansion theme-park ride, he worried that the empire built on the likes of Snow White and Tinker Bell would reject his brand of creepy humor. Vado gave Disney skeletons dangling from nooses, scattered corpses and a ghostly poodle that says “crap.” To his surprise, Disney signed off on his vision. “Everything we did was really strange,” says Vado, founder of San Jose, California-based SLG Publishing , as in Slave Labor Graphics. “The interesting thing about Disney is, for a company perceived as being stodgy, they do a good job of reinventing themselves.” Disney Chief Executive Officer Robert Iger , 59, is on a spending spree at the world’s biggest media company to transform his film studio, amusement parks and stores. In fiscal 2009 , net income at Disney fell 25 percent to $3.3 billion — the worst annual performance in Iger’s five-year reign — and was almost flat in the first quarter of 2010 compared with a year earlier. The global recession has hammered the company’s 11 theme parks, which are offering promotions and discounts. The Burbank, California-based company’s studio is also struggling: In 2009, it churned out box office flops such as “G-Force,” which featured wisecracking guinea pigs. Iger is pouring billions into attracting a new generation of kids — boys especially — raised on violent video games and reality shows. Buying Marvel In December, Disney completed its $4.3 billion purchase of Marvel Entertainment Inc., home of Iron Man, Spider-Man and the X-Men, paying a 40 percent premium over the stock price. The company is now building two additional cruise ships, one of which includes an AquaDuck water coaster that plunges four decks. Park guests will see more-complex, life-size electronic robots made to look like U.S. presidents and Disney characters. And with input from Apple Inc. CEO Steve Jobs , Disney’s largest shareholder , Iger is giving his 350 retail stores a high-tech makeover and opening a new one in New York’s Times Square in the fall. The total price tag for all of the upgrades through 2014: more than $12.3 billion, according to New York-based Soleil Securities Corp. analyst Alan Gould , a 59 percent increase over the prior five years. Investors give mixed reviews of Iger’s moves to refresh the entertainment giant, which was founded as a cartoon studio by Walt Disney and his brother Roy Disney in 1923. Beating S&P After Iger took over in October 2005, the stock rose 53 percent to a seven-year peak of $36.30 in May 2007 before crashing in 2009 during the credit crisis to a low of $15.59. From that bottom last March through Feb. 23, the shares jumped 98 percent to $30.92, beating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gain of 62 percent but lagging behind rival News Corp.’s 164 percent rise . “What we look for is a company that is constantly refreshing its operations, improving and continuing to build a business, and that’s true of Disney,” says Michael Cuggino , president of San Francisco-based Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds Inc., which owns 720,000 Disney shares. In December, S&P affirmed its earlier revised outlook on Disney’s debt to negative from stable, citing concerns about the company’s recovery, the growth in spending and threats from deep-pocketed rivals. “Disney is going to be basically doubling what they are spending,” says James Tarkenton , a managing director at Lateef Investment Management. Greenbrae, California-based Lateef has sold all of the 149,984 Disney shares it held in April 2009. Disney spokeswoman Zenia Mucha declined a request for an interview with Iger. Iger’s Deals Iger, who came to Disney in 1996 as part of the company’s $19 billion purchase of Capital Cities/ABC Inc., has proved to be a serial acquirer. Three months after taking the helm as CEO, he agreed to pay $7.4 billion for Pixar, which was co-founded by Jobs, to improve Disney’s flagging animation pipeline. In all, the CEO has snapped up 28 companies in whole or part, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. When announcing the deal for Marvel and its cast of superheroes in August, Iger said they would add to Disney’s stable of characters and attract more boys to its cable cartoon offerings. While some Disney entertainment such as Pixar’s “Cars” and the “Pirates of the Caribbean” action films may be popular with boys, most of its movies, cable shows and characters appeal to young children and adolescent girls, says UBS AG analyst Michael Morris in New York. ‘High School Musical’ The Disney Channel is the leading cable network in reaching girls age 6 to 14 with hits such as “Hannah Montana,” about a teenage pop singer, Disney has said. “Content and products for boys have been less consistent for Disney than those for girls,” Morris says. “When Disney looks for growth opportunities, it sees big potential with boys.” Last year, Disney also bought Wideload Games Inc. , maker of the violent video game “ Stubbs the Zombie in Rebel Without a Pulse ,” featuring brain-eating zombies. And the company rebranded its Toon Disney cable cartoon channel into Disney XD. The channel’s new programming features shows such as “Kick Buttowski” aimed at boys age 6 to 14, the company said. When Disney creates a franchise — such as “High School Musical,” which features teen heartthrob Zac Efron — Iger tries to exploit it across the company’s empire. The Disney Channel movie also found life in theaters, a stage musical, CDs, DVDs, video games, an ice-skating show and at parks. ‘Up’ “When they get a hit, they can really leverage that for big profits,” says Cuggino. “But when they miss, they miss on many levels. That makes for a rough and volatile business.” While Pixar’s “Toy Story” and “Finding Nemo” films have produced some synergy, the Academy Award-nominated “Up” has not. The lead character, a grumpy old man, would be unappealing in other venues, analysts say. Iger said in July that while he was satisfied with the movie’s box office sales, he didn’t consider it a franchise. “Disney needs to figure out how to develop those properties,” says Janna Sampson , co-chief investment officer of Lisle, Illinois-based OakBrook Investments LLC, which has 300,000 Disney shares. “That’s why I thought they paid all that money for Pixar.” Iger took over from Michael Eisner, who in 2004 was stripped of his chairmanship by Disney’s board while he was embroiled in feuds, including one with Jobs over a Pixar distribution deal. Eisner, 67, retired the following year, after Walt Disney’s nephew, Roy Disney, led a shareholder revolt, claiming Eisner was a micromanager who had caused a creative brain drain. ‘Most Enthusiastic’ Eisner’s strategic planning division applied so much scrutiny to business proposals that managers were reluctant to pitch ideas, Iger said in a 2005 analyst meeting after disbanding the group. “Where Eisner micromanaged, Iger gives his managers much more freedom,” says Soleil Securities’ Gould. “The strategic planning division was really disliked under Eisner.” Born in Brooklyn and raised on Long Island, New York, Iger honed his diplomacy on the student council at Oceanside High School, where he was voted the “most enthusiastic” member of the class of 1969. At ABC, he ascended in rank as the entertainment industry consolidated: In 1987, the one-time studio supervisor became vice president of programming at ABC Sports. After the Disney deal, he rose to chairman of ABC Group, president of Walt Disney International and president of Disney in 2000. Dick Cook Resigns “Iger manages people extraordinarily well,” says Laura Martin , an analyst at Needham & Co. in Pasadena, California. As CEO, Iger named Pixar creative director John Lasseter the chief creative officer of both Walt Disney and Pixar Animation studios. Lasseter also offers advice to executives involved with theme parks, video games and merchandising. And he appears in corporate videos expounding on changes he has made, such as creating realistic Pixar toys by using digital data from movies to craft the face of Woody from the “Toy Story” films, for example. After years of executive turnover under Eisner, Iger’s top lieutenants have mostly stayed put — until recently. During a conference call in May, Iger criticized his studio, led by 40- year Disney veteran Dick Cook, which had produced clunkers such as “Bedtime Stories” about a hotel handyman. “It’s about choice of films and the execution of the films that have been chosen for production, and we’ve had a rough year in terms of the performance,” Iger said. Four months later, Cook resigned, replaced by Rich Ross , then president of Disney Channels Worldwide. Captain America Soon after, Ross named new heads of studio production and distribution. “Everyone liked Dick Cook, but the results weren’t coming through,” Gould says. In 2009, Disney finished No. 5 in box office sales among the six major studios, according to Box Office Mojo . The studio’s operating income dropped 84 percent in fiscal 2009, its worst showing in a decade, before rebounding in the first quarter, which ended on Jan. 2. To fill theaters, Ross, 48, can’t yet rely on several of Marvel’s most popular comic-book characters. They’re tied up in licensing deals: News Corp. has the rights to the X-Men, Sony Corp. controls Spider-Man and Universal Studios Inc. claims several Marvel characters for exclusive use in its Orlando theme parks. Ross has to mine the likes of Captain America, Thor and lesser-known figures like Ant-Man until the bigger superhero licenses expire beginning in 2013. The licensing deals soured some analysts on the Marvel purchase. ESPN “Over the long run, we suspect this will be viewed as Mr. Iger’s first major mistake as CEO,” Citigroup Inc. analyst Jason Bazinet wrote in September. Iger’s best-performing business is the one that bears no resemblance to Disney’s iconic brands: ESPN . Disney picked up ESPN, the No. 1 U.S. sports network by ratings, in the Capital Cities/ABC deal. ESPN has become the workhorse in the company’s media division , its largest, composed of broadcast and cable networks. Buoyed by growing subscriber fees, cable generated 29 percent of Disney’s revenues in 2009, up from 23 percent three years earlier, and produced 64 percent of the company’s total operating profit in fiscal 2009. “Disney should be called ESPN Co.,” Gould says. ABC’s Decline ABC , the third-ranked broadcast network, according to Nielsen Co., is dwarfed by cable. Gould estimates that ABC, including its local stations and production operations, is worth about $5.3 billion, or about 14 percent of ESPN’s value. Iger may consider selling the 66-year-old broadcaster, says analyst Michael Nathanson of New York-based Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. “ABC is a good question,” Nathanson says. “I would ask the company if ABC fits in.” As ABC’s advertising revenue falls, Iger is demanding an increased share of the fees paid by cable and satellite companies to the broadcaster’s independent affiliate stations that carry its programming. “We should get paid for the value we deliver,” Iger said in December. Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc. , an Austin, Texas-based affiliate of ABC and other networks, plans to resist Iger’s demand for a bigger slice of fees. CEO Perry Sook says he needs the fees — $22.5 million in the first nine months of 2009 — to subsidize the decline in ad sales from the 63 local stations Nexstar owns and works with. Theme Parks “I have a company car. Do the networks also feel they’re entitled to drive that for two days a week?” Sook asks. Iger’s biggest financial bet is on his theme park, resort and cruise ship business, which in fiscal 2009 posted its steepest decline in operating income since the 2001 terrorist attacks in the U.S. Disney has used discounts , including as much as 45 percent off hotel rates at Walt Disney World in Florida, to lure visitors. In keeping with the CEO’s edict to apply technology wherever possible, new rides at Epcot in Florida include a motion simulator called the “Sum of All Thrills.” Using a touchscreen monitor, kids customize their ride by programming simulated corkscrews, inversions and hills. At Disneyland in California and Walt Disney World, the “Star Tours” rides, using scenes based on the original “Star Wars” movies, will be updated next year with 3-D versions of the more-recent trilogy of movies. Walt Disney World will have to work harder for visitors after the nearby Universal Studios Florida park opens a new “Wizarding World of Harry Potter” area this spring. It will feature a replica of Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry. Executive Shuffle “Look out, Cinderella Castle, here comes Hogwarts castle,” says Dennis Speigel , president of Cincinnati-based consulting firm International Theme Park Services Inc. Even in Asia, Disney is finding it hard to make a buck. Five years ago, the company and the local government in Hong Kong formed a joint venture to open a Disneyland in the region, where Ocean Park , a sea-themed venue, has proven tough competition. Disney’s venture is still losing money. “They missed the mark in Hong Kong in underestimating the competition,” Speigel says. Disney is now moving into Shanghai after the Chinese government in November gave its approval to build an amusement park. In leaving his mark on the Magic Kingdom, Iger is also shuffling his top managers. In November, he switched Chief Financial Officer Thomas Staggs , 49, with James Rasulo , 54, head of the theme parks. Bloodthirsty Zombies Iger said he was handing them new challenges, not preparing for succession. But Gould says Staggs, a former Morgan Stanley & Co. investment banker, is likely being given operational experience to groom him for the top job. Cuggino, the Disney investor, praises Iger’s moves. “I like companies that invest in their business when economic times are tough,” Cuggino says. “That means they’ll be stronger when the economy improves.” If Iger gets a fairy tale ending to his tenure as CEO, it will at least partly come from muscle-bound superheroes and bloodthirsty zombies — a far cry from the characters Walt Disney made famous at Disneyland, the Happiest Place on Earth. To contact the reporters on this story: Seth Lubove in Los Angeles at slubove@bloomberg.net ; Andy Fixmer in Los Angeles at afixmer@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Morgan Stanley’s Mack, Clooney Help Resourceful Charities Beat Recession

February 24, 2010

By Patrick Cole Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) — George Clooney worked the phones day and night to produce a telethon last month that raised $66 million for Haitian earthquake victims. Actor Alyssa Milano asked for donations instead of presents for her birthday party and raised $92,000 for charity: water , a New York nonprofit that builds wells in developing countries. Morgan Stanley Chairman John Mack and Chief Executive Officers Leslie Moonves of CBS Corp. and Frank Bennack of Hearst Corp. helped Partnership for a Drug Free America raise $2 million at its December gala, topping the organization’s goal by $500,000. With the U.S. in a severe economic slump, nonprofit groups must work harder to raise money and find new ways to reach patrons. While some are focusing on wealthy executives and celebrities, others are utilizing social network sites such as Facebook to reach a younger audience. “The nonprofits that ask more people for donations are the ones that are succeeding,” Stacy Palmer , editor of the Washington-based Chronicle of Philanthropy, said in a phone interview. “They just have to work harder at it.” Declining Donations Charitable donations by U.S. corporations may decline by up to 10 percent in 2009, according to Melissa Berman , chief executive officer of Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors in New York. In 2008, those companies gave away $14 billion. “The organizations that come to us are run like a business, and they have to show that they can have an impact,” said Shannon Schuyler, corporate responsibility leader for the Americas at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP in Chicago. “They didn’t come to us saying, ‘We’re having hard times, write us a check.’” Dozens of cultural organizations have shut down over the past two years, including the Fresno Metropolitan Museum in California, the Milwaukee Shakespeare Co. and the Las Vegas Art Museum. However, the economic downturn didn’t stop charity: water from boosting donations to $9 million in 2009, a 30 percent increase over the previous year. Facebook and Twitter have helped the 4-year-old nonprofit build a list of 80,000 donors, President Scott Harrison said in a phone interview. “A number of charities make the mistake of not continuing an aggressive fundraising approach,” said William Woodson, managing director and head of family wealth management for Credit Suisse Private Banking USA in Chicago. “We found that those that retained a rigorous approach were exceedingly effective.” Bigger Pledge Persistence paid off for the Lupus Research Institute in New York. After a regular donor pledged $50,000 instead of the $100,000 that was requested, director of major gifts Dorey Neilinger called him and managed to increase the donation to $75,000. Then Margaret Dowd , the institute’s chief executive, followed up with another call that resulted in the full $100,000 pledge. “It’s the cause and the mission that makes these gifts possible, and we never give up,” Dowd said in a phone interview. Showing donors that their money will be used for an important cause is essential in a recession, said Joel Simon , executive director of the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists . Explaining how his nonprofit aids imprisoned and tortured journalists helped convince Microsoft Corp . to buy a $25,000 table at the organization’s November gala, Simon said. Santa Barbara The Santa Barbara Bowl Foundation, which raises money to renovate the California city’s 74-year-old outdoor amphitheater , received a $250,000 gift from a donor in November after board chairman Paul Dore made a personal pitch. Dore, a managing director at Santa Barbara Asset Management and a former Credit Suisse wealth manager, showed the patron the architect’s blueprint for renovating the facility. “Donors said, ‘I see what you’re doing, and we’re on board,’” Dore said. “We lead horses to water and hope they drink.” To contact the writer on this story: Patrick Cole in New York at pcole3@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Accor Posts Unexpected Full-Year Loss on Charges, Business-Travel Slowdown

February 24, 2010

By Ladka Bauerova Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) — Accor SA , Europe’s largest hotelier, posted an unexpected 2009 loss after it wrote down asset values and business travel declined. Accor reported a full-year net loss of 282 million euros ($382 million) compared with a 575 million-euro profit a year earlier, the Paris-based company said today in an e-mailed statement. That missed the 85 million-euro profit average estimate of 10 analysts compiled by Bloomberg. The loss was due to impairment and restructuring charges of 514 million euros and after demand for accommodation weakened in 2009 as companies put a freeze on business travel and tourists reduced their budgets. Accor said it plans to spin off its faster-growing service-voucher division in late June, earlier than first planned. The split of the businesses “will herald a new era of high-margin growth in services and accelerated restructuring in hotels,” Jeffries International Ltd. analyst William Birch said in a note yesterday. He has a “buy” rating on the stock. Full-year operating profit before tax and non-recurring items dropped 49 percent to 448 million euros, missing the 543 million-euro average analyst estimate. Sales in 2009 declined 8.5 percent to 7.07 billion euros. The service vouchers unit will be separated from the hotels and the two businesses will be listed as separate companies, Accor said in a separate statement. The hotel company will hold debt of 1.2 billion euros, while vouchers will have debt of 400 million euros. Accor will pay a 2009 dividend of 1.05 euros per share, down from 1.65 euros a year earlier. Accor fell 14 cents, or 0.4 percent, to 36.47 euros in Paris trading yesterday. The stock gained 8.9 percent last year. To contact the reporter on this story: Ladka Bauerova in Paris at lbauerova@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Garrett Johnson: Junk Economics and the Assault on the Middle Class

February 23, 2010

“Behind every great fortune lies a great crime.” – Balzac Capitalism hasn’t failed. What has failed is the economic system in place today. No amount of government taxes, trade barriers, or regulation caused it to fail. No investigative reporter, or congressional oversight committee, or regulatory watchdog, exposed the massive fraud and corruption in the financial system today. All of the safeguards put in place to protect the public, and the current system from itself, failed. The global financial crisis came to light because what amounts to a falling out amongst thieves. They simply stopped trusting the ability of each other to pay their debts. Once lending stopped, credit creation froze, and the Ponzi scheme that parallels our financial system broke down . This so-called “Great Recession” isn’t cyclical, and the problems are systemic. We didn’t get here by accident. Choices were made by very wealthy and powerful people, and those choices can be reversed. It’s important to understand that we aren’t fighting Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand . We are fighting against the Money Trust. The first thing that one must acknowledge is that we have just witnessed one of the most massive transfers of wealth, from the poor to the rich, in mankind’s history. This enormous theft now threatens the very existence of the middle class in America. David DeGraw does an excellent job of adding it all up . Here are a few highlights: 50 million Americans now live in poverty Half of all American children will need foodstamps at some point in their lives Hunger rates are now at all-time highs 50 million citizens are now without health care 1.4 million filed for bankruptcy last year, 60% of them because of medical bills 13 million are expected to lose their homes before the crisis is over Meanwhile, we incarcerate more people in the world than any other nation, and a new prison opens somewhere in America every week . These are merely the highlights. Make no mistake — this trend was in place even before the financial crisis struck. In 1972 the CPI adjusted wages for the average worker was $738.48 per week. In January 2008 that figure was $598.18. Simply put, the average American worker has been getting poorer for a long time. What’s more, the past decade was the worst in 70 years , and we are looking at a permanent underclass of former workers. The trend isn’t limited to America . In 1970, 434 million people were suffering from malnutrition. That number is now 854 million. In 1820, the gap between the richest and poorest country was 3 to 1. Today it is 80 to 1. On the other side of the coin, the wealthy have never had it better : The richest 1% have seen their after-tax income triple since 1980 as a percentage of the nation’s total income, while the bottom 90% have seen their share drop 20% This trend accelerated since 2002 . The top 1% owns 70% of all financial assets, an all-time high The average CEO makes 500 times the compensation that the average worker does. In 1970 it was only 25 to 1. The top 400 richest have more wealth than 155 million Americans, and that gap is increasing The list goes on and on… “The war against working people should be understood to be a real war…. Specifically in the U.S., which happens to have a highly class-conscious business class…. And they have long seen themselves as fighting a bitter class war, except they don’t want anybody else to know about it.” — Noam Chomsky So what? Why should you care if our nation has less and less equality? It’s not a matter of class envy. Going all the way back to Aristotle , a strong middle class has been the most important part of a stable and just society. According to Seymour Lipset , and many other economists, a strong middle class is necessary for a stable democracy. To put it another way, the decline of the working class in this country is a threat to our Constitutional form of government. What does that mean? If you want a glimpse of the near future of America, look no further than Samson, Alabama . Last March, Michael McLendon, a disgruntled worker from Pilgrim’s Pride, a chicken processing company, went on a killing rampage that left 11 people dead. While a horrible tragedy in itself, the event was marked by something more unusual — federal Army troops from nearby Fort Rucker were brought into Samson and other surrounding areas to patrol the streets. This fact was largely ignored by the major media. The reason why the troops were manning traffic stops in the small Alabama town, in clear violation of the Posse Comitatus Act, was because the local sheriff asked for support from the military. The reason he couldn’t handle the situation? Budget cuts in police enforcement. What has this got to do with Michael McLendon and Pilgrim’s Pride? In 2006, the giant chicken processor teamed up with Wall Street and borrowed hundreds of billions of dollars to acquire a rival company. To pay for the buyout, and the executive bonuses that came with it, it cut the wages of its workers. Soon after it found it couldn’t pay for the debt and declared bankruptcy. This led to massive layoffs and devastation of the tax base of the community. So who put together the deal that bankrupted Pilgrim’s Pride? Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch. The Merrill banker who made the deal was recently hired by JP Morgan Chase. JP Morgan was behind the financial derivatives that has bankrupted Jefferson County, Alabama over a sewer project. Because of the financial disaster regarding the sewer project, sewer charges were raised to more than double the national average. Poor, working residents are being forced to chose between water and heat . Cuts in the sheriff’s office are so severe that plans are being made to call in the National Guard for any breakout in civil order. If this sounds suspiciously like the scenario of a 3rd world nation, it only means that you are paying attention. Junk Economics “For if leisure and security were enjoyed by all alike, the great mass of human beings who are normally stupefied by poverty would become literate and would learn to think for themselves; and when once they had done this, they would sooner or later realize that the privileged minority had no function, and they would sweep it away. In the long run, a hierarchical society was only possible on a basis of poverty and ignorance.” — George Orwell Last November, Andy Haldane, the Head of the Bank of England, said that the state and the banking system was locked in a “doom loop” , and that massive reforms were necessary to break out of it. Since then there has been very little reforms on either side of the Atlantic. The biggest obstacles to reforms are a) the false belief that we have a free market, and b) the false belief that there are no other alternatives. These perceptions have been carefully shaped by the Federal Reserve, and other central banks, over several decades. First of all, the Federal Reserve virtually controls the field of economics today. The Federal Reserve, through its extensive network of consultants, visiting scholars, alumni and staff economists, so thoroughly dominates the field of economics that real criticism of the central bank has become a career liability for members of the profession, an investigation by the Huffington Post has found. … “The Fed has a lock on the economics world,” says Joshua Rosner, a Wall Street analyst who correctly called the meltdown. “There is no room for other views, which I guess is why economists got it so wrong.” “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.” – Upton Sinclair As Barry Ritholtz has pointed out, the field of economics today has become a joke. Indeed, the arrogance of economics is that it is the polar opposite of Science. It begins with a few basic assumptions, many of which are obviously untrue; some are demonstrably false. No, Mankind is not a rational, profit maximizing actor. No, markets are not perfectly, or even nearly, efficient. No, prices do not reflect the sum total of all that is known about a given market, sector or stock. Those of you who pretend otherwise are fools who deserve to have your 401ks cut in half. That is called just desserts. The problem is that your foolishness helped cut nearly everyone else’s 401ks in half. That is called criminal incompetence. Starting from a false premise that fails to understand the most basic behaviors of the Human animal, economics proceeds to build an edifice of cards on a foundation of sand. It’s hard to believe that a field of study could have drifted so far off course into obvious delusions…unless it was done intentionally. The fact that the wealthy elites have gained so much power and wealth from both the booms and busts of this unstable system is all the motive that you would need. “The last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth.” – former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman, Alan Blinder Albert Edwards, the chief strategist at Societe Generale, has flat out accused the Federal Reserve and Bank of England in complicity in robbing the middle classes of America and Britain. While governments preside over economic policies which make the very rich even richer, national consumption needs to be boosted in some way to avoid underconsumption ending in outright deflation. In addition, the middle classes also need to be thrown a sop to disguise the fact they are not benefiting at all from economic growth. This is where central banks have played their pernicious part… Now you might argue central banks had no alternative in the face of under-consumption. Or you might conclude there was a deliberate, unspoken collusion among policymakers to rob the middle classes of their rightful share of income growth by throwing them illusionary spending power based on asset price inflation. We will never know. But it is clear in my mind that ordinary working people would not have tolerated these extreme redistributive policies had not the UK and US central banks played their supporting role. To over-simplify things, the Federal Reserve has only one tool at its disposal: the printing press. The Fed cheapens money to stimulate the economy, but this encourages speculation, which leads to bubbles. The moral is: Cheap money creates bubbles; and bubbles move wealth from workers to rich motherporkers. It’s as simple as that. That’s why the wealth gap is wider now than anytime since the Gilded Age. Lately, the Federal Reserve has become much more open about its collusion with the financial elite. For examples, the Fed’s efforts to cover up its role in the bailout of AIG, and its role involving the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers . The Big Picture “A corporation cannot be ethical; its only responsibility is to turn a profit!” — Milton Friedman One of the things missing from the economic discussion today is the lack of the perspective . Wall Street has financialized the public domain to inaugurate a neo-feudal tollbooth economy while privatizing the government itself, headed by the Treasury and Federal Reserve. Left untouched is the story how industrial capitalism has succumbed to an insatiable and unsustainable finance capitalism, whose newest “final stage” seems to be a zero-sum game of casino capitalism based on derivative swaps and kindred hedge fund gambling innovations. The failure of today’s economists extend beyond the fact that they failed to anticipate the recession (as late as January 2008, most economists were predicting we would avoid a recession ). Their real failure is that they don’t even understand why the recession happened, despite the fact that the man on the street can grasp the idea once he is aware of the facts. It’s that sort of failure that cannot be forgiven. My favorite contemporary economist with a historical perspective is Michael Hudson . His view of economists today is not complimentary . the “intellectual engineering” that has turned the economics discipline into a public relations exercise for the rentier classes criticized by the classical economists: landlords, bankers and monopolists. It was largely to counter criticisms of their unearned income and wealth, after all, that the post-classical reaction aimed to limit the conceptual “toolbox” of economists to become so unrealistic, narrow-minded and self-serving to the status quo. It has ended up as an intellectual ploy to distract attention away from the financial and property dynamics that are polarizing our world between debtors and creditors, property owners and renters, while steering politics from democracy to oligarchy. Economics today is not just a science without a purpose. Economics, as the professions now exists, is to science what Fox News is to the news media. Just like the purpose of Fox News is to mis inform the public, the purpose of economics today is a PR con to justify inefficient and immoral policies that defend the status quo and keep mankind from advancing. Manufacturing and industry, the great drivers of the American middle class for over 100 years, didn’t die by accident. There was a deliberate decision made in the late 1970′s to favor finance over industry. We have arrived at this point because choices were made. One of those choices made by economists was to turn their backs on the moral values of classical economics. This was reflected by political ideology in a certain segment of society. For instance, I noticed Glen Beck had this to say at the CPAC. He then read disapprovingly the Theodore Roosevelt quote that “we grudge no man a fortune in civil life if it is honorably obtained and well used…so long as the gaining represents benefit to the community.” “Is this what the Republican Party stands for?” Beck demanded. He was answered with boos and cries of “no!” It may seem ironic that a group well versed on religion, and supporting laws regulating practices that they consider immoral, would never consider extending their morality to the accumulation of great wealth and power. Their outrage appears limited to immoral acts that don’t actually effect them. Why should honor and benefit to a person’s community be excluded from the discussion of economics and moral behavior in general? Also, isn’t this strange concept of separating honor and morality from economics at least part of the reason why we are in this situation? “We’re moving to an oligopolistic situation.” – Kenneth Guenther, Independent Community Bankers of America, 1999 It should be noted that the field of economics wasn’t always like this. In fact, its original purpose was enhancing the human condition. What have been lost are the Progressive Era’s two great reforms. First, minimizing the economy’s free lunch of unearned income (e.g., monopolistic privilege and privatization of the public domain in contrast to one’s own labor and enterprise) by taxing absentee property rent and asset-price (“capital”) gains, keeping natural monopolies in the public domain, and anti-trust regulation. The aim of progressive economic justice was to prevent exploitation – e.g., charging more than the technologically necessary costs of production and reasonable profits warranted. A second Progressive Era aim was to steer the financial sector so as to fund capital formation…Today’s bank credit has become decoupled from capital formation, taking the form mainly of mortgage credit (80%), and loans secured by corporate stock (for mergers, acquisitions and corporate raids) as well as for speculation. The effect is to spur asset-price inflation on credit, in ways that benefit the few at the expense of the economy at large. The current economic system is sick. It’s been poisoned with self-serving ideology from top to bottom. It’s needs radical and systemic reforms, not tinkering within the current system (like those proposed so far). This will not happen within the current political and economic system because the wealthy elite do not want it to happen. However, the system was constructed by choices that were made. It can be changed in the same way the progressives changed it a century ago, but it requires a mass movement. It requires people to understand that their enemies aren’t working people from other cities, nations, races, religions, or anyone who collects a paycheck. Their enemies are those of the powerful and wealthy elite who rigged the current system. (Because I can’t say it better)

Read the full article →

DocStoc Launches DocStore, Marketplace For Professional Documents

February 23, 2010

Today, DocStoc is officially opening up its premium content channel, called the DocStore, addressing a lightly different sector, with a focus on selling professional documents to businesses and individuals. DocStoc’s CEO and founder Jason Nazar says the one of the platform’s fastest growing user base segments are small business owners looking for free and paid documents for entrepreneurs, startups and professionals. Documents range from legal documents to real estate contracts to analysis to forms for business models.

Read the full article →

AIG Document New York Fed Kept Secret Shows Goldman Minted Most Toxic CDOs

February 23, 2010

By Richard Teitelbaum Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) — When a congressional panel convened a hearing on the government rescue of American International Group Inc. in January, the public scolding of Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner got the most attention. Lawmakers said the former head of the New York Federal Reserve Bank had presided over a backdoor bailout of Wall Street firms and a coverup. Geithner countered that he had acted properly to avert the collapse of the financial system. A potentially more important development slipped by with less notice, Bloomberg Markets reports in its April issue. Representative Darrell Issa , the ranking Republican on the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, placed into the hearing record a five-page document itemizing the mortgage securities on which banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Societe Generale SA had bought $62.1 billion in credit-default swaps from AIG. These were the deals that pushed the insurer to the brink of insolvency — and were eventually paid in full at taxpayer expense. The New York Fed, which secretly engineered the bailout, prevented the full publication of the document for more than a year, even when AIG wanted it released. That lack of disclosure shows how the government has obstructed a proper accounting of what went wrong in the financial crisis, author and former investment banker William Cohan says. “This secrecy is one more example of how the whole bailout has been done in such a slithering manner,” says Cohan, who wrote “House of Cards” (Doubleday, 2009), about the unraveling of Bear Stearns Cos. “There’s been no accountability.” CDOs Identified The document Issa made public cuts to the heart of the controversy over the September 2008 AIG rescue by identifying specific securities, known as collateralized-debt obligations, that had been insured with the company. The banks holding the credit-default swaps, a type of derivative, collected collateral as the insurer was downgraded and the CDOs tumbled in value. The public can now see for the first time how poorly the securities performed, with losses exceeding 75 percent of their notional value in some cases. Compounding this, the document and Bloomberg data demonstrate that the banks that bought the swaps from AIG are mostly the same firms that underwrote the CDOs in the first place. The banks should have to explain how they managed to buy protection from AIG primarily on securities that fell so sharply in value, says Daniel Calacci , a former swaps trader and marketer who’s now a structured-finance consultant in Warren, New Jersey. In some cases, banks also owned mortgage lenders, and they should be challenged to explain whether they gained any insider knowledge about the quality of the loans bundled into the CDOs, he says. ‘Too Uncanny’ “It’s almost too uncanny,” Calacci says. “If these banks had insight into the underlying loans because they had relationships with banks, originators or servicers, that’s at the least unethical.” The identification of securities in the document, known as Schedule A, and data compiled by Bloomberg show that Goldman Sachs underwrote $17.2 billion of the $62.1 billion in CDOs that AIG insured — more than any other investment bank. Merrill Lynch & Co., now part of Bank of America Corp., created $13.2 billion of the CDOs, and Deutsche Bank AG underwrote $9.5 billion. These tallies suggest a possible reason why the New York Fed kept so much under wraps, Professor James Cox of Duke University School of Law says: “They may have been trying to shield Goldman — for Goldman’s sake or out of macro concerns that another investment bank would be at risk.” Poor Performers Goldman Sachs spokesman Michael DuVally declined to comment. Schedule A also makes possible a more complete examination of why AIG collapsed. Joseph Cassano , the former president of the AIG Financial Products unit that sold the swaps, said on a December 2007 conference call that his firm pulled back from selling swaps on U.S. subprime residential CDOs in late 2005. The list shows that the $21.2 billion in CDOs minted after 2005, mostly based on prime and commercial mortgages, performed as badly as or worse than the earlier subprime vintages. A lawyer for Cassano declined to comment. As details of the coverup emerge, so does anger at the perceived conflicts. Philip Angelides , chairman of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission , at a hearing held by his panel on Jan. 13, questioned how banks could underwrite poisonous securities and then bet against them. “It sounds to me a little bit like selling a car with faulty brakes and then buying an insurance policy on the buyer of those cars,” he said. ‘Part of the Coverup’ Janet Tavakoli , founder of Tavakoli Structured Finance Inc., a Chicago-based consulting firm, says the New York Fed’s secrecy has helped hide who’s responsible for the worst of the disaster. “The suppression of the details in the list of counterparties was part of the coverup,” she says. E-mails between Fed and AIG officials that Issa released in January show that the efforts to keep Schedule A under wraps came from the New York Fed. Revelation of the messages contributed to the heated atmosphere at the House hearing. “What date did you know there was a coverup?” Republican Congressman Brian Bilbray of California demanded of Geithner. Lawmakers used the word coverup more than a dozen times as they peppered Geithner with questions. Geithner said that he wasn’t involved in matters of disclosure and that his former colleagues did the best they could. In a Jan. 19 statement, the New York Fed said, “AIG at all times remained responsible for complying with its disclosure requirements under the securities laws.” The government has committed more than $182 billion to AIG and owns almost 80 percent of the company. Document Withheld In late November 2008, the insurer was planning to include Schedule A in a regulatory filing — until a lawyer for the Fed said it wasn’t necessary, according to the e-mails. The document was an attachment to the agreement between AIG and Maiden Lane III, the fund that the Fed established in November 2008 to hold the CDOs after the swap contracts were settled. AIG paid its counter­parties — the banks — the full value of the contracts, after accounting for any collateral that had been posted, and took the devalued CDOs in exchange. As requested by the New York Fed, AIG kept the bank names out of the Dec. 24 filing and edited out a sentence that said they got full payment. The New York Fed’s January 2010 statement said the sentence was deleted because AIG technically paid slightly less than 100 cents on the dollar. Paid in Full Before the New York Fed ordered AIG to pay the banks in full, the company was trying to negotiate to pay off the credit- default swaps at a discount or “haircut.” By March 2009, responding to a request from Christopher Dodd , chairman of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, AIG released the names of the counterparty banks. In a filing later that month, AIG included Schedule A, showing bank names while withholding all identification of the underlying CDOs and the amounts of collateral each bank had collected. The document had more than 800 redactions. In May 2009, AIG again filed Schedule A, this time with about 400 redactions. It revealed that Paris-based Societe Generale got the biggest payout from AIG, or $16.5 billion, followed by Goldman Sachs, which got $14 billion, and then Deutsche Bank and Merrill Lynch. It still kept secret the CDOs’ identification and information that would show performance. ‘Right to Know’ “This is something that belongs in the public domain because it was done with public money,” Issa says. “The public has the right to know what was done with their money and who benefited from it.” Now, thanks to Issa, the list is out, and specific information about AIG’s unraveling can be learned from it. At the Jan. 27 hearing, the New York Fed was still arguing that the contents of Schedule A shouldn’t be fully disclosed. Thomas Baxter , the New York Fed’s general counsel, testified that divulging the names of the CDOs could erode their value: “We will be hurt because traders in the market will know what we’re holding.” Tavakoli calls that wrong. With many CDOs, providing more information to the market will give the manager a greater chance of fetching a realistic price, she says. Jack Gutt , a spokesman for the New York Fed, declined to comment, as did AIG’s Mark Herr . Bad to Worse Tavakoli also says that the poor performance of the underlying securities (which are actually specific slices or tranches of CDOs) shows they were toxic in the first place and were probably replenished with bundles of mortgages that were particularly troubled. Managers who oversee CDOs after they are created have discretion in choosing the mortgage bonds used to replenish them. “The original CDO deals were bad enough,” Tavakoli says. “For some that allow reinvesting or substitution, any reasonable professional would ask why these assets were being traded into the portfolio. The Schedule A shows that we should be investigating these deals.” Among the CDOs on Schedule A with notional values of more than $1 billion, the worst performer was a tranche identified as Davis Square Funding Ltd.’s DVSQ 2006-6A CP. It was held by Societe Generale, underwritten by Goldman Sachs and managed by TCW Group Inc., a Los Angeles-based unit of SocGen, according to Bloomberg data. It lost 77.7 percent of its value — though it isn’t in default and continues to pay. SocGen spokesman James Galvin and TCW spokeswoman Erin Freeman declined to comment. Documentation Needed Ed Grebeck , CEO of Tempus Advisors, a global debt market strategy firm in Stamford, Connecticut, agrees that more digging is necessary. “You need all the documentation and more than that, all the e-mails,” he says. “That would allow us to understand what went wrong and how to fix it going forward.” Neil Barofsky , the special inspector general for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, who delivered a report on the AIG bailout in November, says he’s not finished. He has begun a probe of why his office wasn’t provided all of the 250,000 pages of documents, including e-mails and phone logs, that Issa’s committee received from the New York Fed. Schedule A provides some answers — and raises questions that need to be tackled to avoid the next expensive bailout. To contact the reporter on this story: Richard Teitelbaum in New York at rteitelbaum1@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Cyberactivists Get Help From YouTube, U.S. to Thwart Repressive Regimes

February 23, 2010

By Indira A.R. Lakshmanan Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) — Cameran Ashraf was instant-messaging from Los Angeles with an activist in Iran during anti-government protests Feb. 11 when the chat went dead. Had Iran’s government “shut down the Internet” to thwart dissidents from organizing online or had authorities come to arrest the man, Ashraf said he wondered as he described the incident during an online video interview. Ashraf, who said he sees himself as a digital aid worker, immediately alerted other Iranian contacts to block surveillance of their Web traffic. A 29-year-old American whose parents emigrated from Iran, Ashraf is co-founder of AccessNow , a group of tech-savvy volunteers who joined forces during Iran’s crackdown on election protests last year to help Iranians evade censorship. They are the type of cyberactivists the U.S. State Department is seeking to support with $50 million in funds for an expanding counteroffensive against suppression of Internet freedom. “The fact that many governments are trying to prevent their citizens from expressing themselves or obtaining information that would be critical” underscores the importance of defending online speech and assembly, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in a Feb. 16 interview. The U.S. wants to support “garage-type” outfits trying to circumvent Web censorship, she said. AccessNow has communicated with Google Inc. on censorship and security issues and received help from its YouTube subsidiary when Iranian protest videos were hacked, said co- founder Brett Solomon in New York. “This is what we do, at the core of who we are: to make sure that everyone has access,” said Scott Rubin, a Google and YouTube spokesman who works on free-expression issues. Circumvent Firewalls The State Department has given $15 million in the past two years to private projects that use technology and training to promote online freedoms. It is reviewing applications for $5 million to support work including research into circumventing firewalls and surveillance and $30 million more will be available later this year, said Daniel Baer, deputy assistant secretary of State for democracy, human rights and labor. Helping activists creates a dilemma by exposing them to retribution from repressive governments. Projects are so sensitive and the people involved at such risk that the State Department declined to identify current applicants. One Washington-based group that got the bulk of the money doled out so far — more than $13 million for projects worldwide — asked not to be named, fearing Chinese employees would be jailed. AccessNow’s founders haven’t received government funds and said they would have reservations about accepting any because they want to remain independent and protect contacts in countries where taking foreign money is a crime. Surf Anonymously The group does disseminate open-source software that receives indirect U.S. support, including Tor , a network of virtual tunnels that allows people to surf anonymously. Built on work by the U.S. Office of Naval Research , the science and technology arm of the Navy and Marine Corps, Tor was developed by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge and volunteers. It is used by an average of 8,000 people in Iran and 100,000 in China at any moment, said Andrew Lewman, executive director of the nonprofit Tor Project in Dedham, Massachusetts. Scrutiny of digital dissidents drew headlines last month when Google, the Mountain View, California, search-engine company, said e-mail accounts of Chinese rights activists were targeted in an attack on its computer systems. Clinton called on Chinese authorities in a Jan. 21 speech to “conduct a thorough investigation” and said U.S. technology firms should use their influence to protest censorship, surveillance and theft of information. Technical Support Iran’s post-election restrictions on YouTube, Twitter and Facebook — used to organize and publicize protests — inspired Ashraf, Solomon and two Internet enthusiasts in Los Angeles, who all met online, to form AccessNow. A handful of other volunteers help run servers and share technical support. “Our genesis is Iran, but the idea behind AccessNow is to develop a global movement,” Solomon, a 39-year-old Australian, said in an Internet video chat, adding that he’s sharing his experience with Tibetan, Burmese and Cuban dissidents. The Internet has built-in perils for democracy advocates. Users who don’t utilize encryption or other methods to obscure their identity leave a digital trail of conversations, contacts and Web sites visited. Imprisoned Journalists Global Voices Online , an international bloggers network, has documented 206 cases of bloggers under arrest or threat, most in China, Egypt and Iran. Last year, Internet journalists outnumbered print, radio and television reporters among 136 imprisoned members of the press, according to the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists . Mehdi Saharkhiz, 28, an Iranian in New Jersey, joined AccessNow after his father, journalist Isa Saharkhiz, was arrested outside Tehran eight months ago. Mehdi has gathered 2,200 videos on his OnlyMehdi YouTube channel, including iconic footage by anonymous Iranians who won a George Polk Award in journalism last week for filming the killing of Neda Agha- Soltan , who has become a symbol of resistance. “YouTube videos provided some of the only perspective of what was happening in Iran,” said Olivia Ma, 27, news manager of the video-sharing site. During this month’s protests, videos were hacked and erased; AccessNow alerted Ma, who restored them. Not every problem is so easily resolved. Ashraf hasn’t heard back from the Iranian rights campaigner who disappeared from his screen. To contact the reporter on this story: Indira Lakshmanan at in Washington or ilakshmanan@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Secret AIG Document Shows Goldman Minted Most Toxic CDOs

February 23, 2010

By Richard Teitelbaum Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) — When a congressional panel convened a hearing on the government rescue of American International Group Inc. in January, the public scolding of Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner got the most attention. Lawmakers said the former head of the New York Federal Reserve Bank had presided over a backdoor bailout of Wall Street firms and a coverup. Geithner countered that he had acted properly to avert the collapse of the financial system. A potentially more important development slipped by with less notice, Bloomberg Markets reports in its April issue. Representative Darrell Issa , the ranking Republican on the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, placed into the hearing record a five-page document itemizing the mortgage securities on which banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Societe Generale SA had bought $62.1 billion in credit-default swaps from AIG. These were the deals that pushed the insurer to the brink of insolvency — and were eventually paid in full at taxpayer expense. The New York Fed, which secretly engineered the bailout, prevented the full publication of the document for more than a year, even when AIG wanted it released. That lack of disclosure shows how the government has obstructed a proper accounting of what went wrong in the financial crisis, author and former investment banker William Cohan says. “This secrecy is one more example of how the whole bailout has been done in such a slithering manner,” says Cohan, who wrote “House of Cards” (Doubleday, 2009), about the unraveling of Bear Stearns Cos. “There’s been no accountability.” CDOs Identified The document Issa made public cuts to the heart of the controversy over the September 2008 AIG rescue by identifying specific securities, known as collateralized-debt obligations, that had been insured with the company. The banks holding the credit-default swaps, a type of derivative, collected collateral as the insurer was downgraded and the CDOs tumbled in value. The public can now see for the first time how poorly the securities performed, with losses exceeding 75 percent of their notional value in some cases. Compounding this, the document and Bloomberg data demonstrate that the banks that bought the swaps from AIG are mostly the same firms that underwrote the CDOs in the first place. The banks should have to explain how they managed to buy protection from AIG primarily on securities that fell so sharply in value, says Daniel Calacci , a former swaps trader and marketer who’s now a structured-finance consultant in Warren, New Jersey. In some cases, banks also owned mortgage lenders, and they should be challenged to explain whether they gained any insider knowledge about the quality of the loans bundled into the CDOs, he says. ‘Too Uncanny’ “It’s almost too uncanny,” Calacci says. “If these banks had insight into the underlying loans because they had relationships with banks, originators or servicers, that’s at the least unethical.” The identification of securities in the document, known as Schedule A, and data compiled by Bloomberg show that Goldman Sachs underwrote $17.2 billion of the $62.1 billion in CDOs that AIG insured — more than any other investment bank. Merrill Lynch & Co., now part of Bank of America Corp., created $13.2 billion of the CDOs, and Deutsche Bank AG underwrote $9.5 billion. These tallies suggest a possible reason why the New York Fed kept so much under wraps, Professor James Cox of Duke University School of Law says: “They may have been trying to shield Goldman — for Goldman’s sake or out of macro concerns that another investment bank would be at risk.” Poor Performers Goldman Sachs spokesman Michael DuVally declined to comment. Schedule A also makes possible a more complete examination of why AIG collapsed. Joseph Cassano , the former president of the AIG Financial Products unit that sold the swaps, said on a December 2007 conference call that his firm pulled back from selling swaps on U.S. subprime residential CDOs in late 2005. The list shows that the $21.2 billion in CDOs minted after 2005, mostly based on prime and commercial mortgages, performed as badly as or worse than the earlier subprime vintages. A lawyer for Cassano declined to comment. As details of the coverup emerge, so does anger at the perceived conflicts. Philip Angelides , chairman of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission , at a hearing held by his panel on Jan. 13, questioned how banks could underwrite poisonous securities and then bet against them. “It sounds to me a little bit like selling a car with faulty brakes and then buying an insurance policy on the buyer of those cars,” he said. ‘Part of the Coverup’ Janet Tavakoli , founder of Tavakoli Structured Finance Inc., a Chicago-based consulting firm, says the New York Fed’s secrecy has helped hide who’s responsible for the worst of the disaster. “The suppression of the details in the list of counterparties was part of the coverup,” she says. E-mails between Fed and AIG officials that Issa released in January show that the efforts to keep Schedule A under wraps came from the New York Fed. Revelation of the messages contributed to the heated atmosphere at the House hearing. “What date did you know there was a coverup?” Republican Congressman Brian Bilbray of California demanded of Geithner. Lawmakers used the word coverup more than a dozen times as they peppered Geithner with questions. Geithner said that he wasn’t involved in matters of disclosure and that his former colleagues did the best they could. In a Jan. 19 statement, the New York Fed said, “AIG at all times remained responsible for complying with its disclosure requirements under the securities laws.” The government has committed more than $182 billion to AIG and owns almost 80 percent of the company. Document Withheld In late November 2008, the insurer was planning to include Schedule A in a regulatory filing — until a lawyer for the Fed said it wasn’t necessary, according to the e-mails. The document was an attachment to the agreement between AIG and Maiden Lane III, the fund that the Fed established in November 2008 to hold the CDOs after the swap contracts were settled. AIG paid its counter­parties — the banks — the full value of the contracts, after accounting for any collateral that had been posted, and took the devalued CDOs in exchange. As requested by the New York Fed, AIG kept the bank names out of the Dec. 24 filing and edited out a sentence that said they got full payment. The New York Fed’s January 2010 statement said the sentence was deleted because AIG technically paid slightly less than 100 cents on the dollar. Paid in Full Before the New York Fed ordered AIG to pay the banks in full, the company was trying to negotiate to pay off the credit- default swaps at a discount or “haircut.” By March 2009, responding to a request from Christopher Dodd , chairman of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, AIG released the names of the counterparty banks. In a filing later that month, AIG included Schedule A, showing bank names while withholding all identification of the underlying CDOs and the amounts of collateral each bank had collected. The document had more than 800 redactions. In May 2009, AIG again filed Schedule A, this time with about 400 redactions. It revealed that Paris-based Societe Generale got the biggest payout from AIG, or $16.5 billion, followed by Goldman Sachs, which got $14 billion, and then Deutsche Bank and Merrill Lynch. It still kept secret the CDOs’ identification and information that would show performance. ‘Right to Know’ “This is something that belongs in the public domain because it was done with public money,” Issa says. “The public has the right to know what was done with their money and who benefited from it.” Now, thanks to Issa, the list is out, and specific information about AIG’s unraveling can be learned from it. At the Jan. 27 hearing, the New York Fed was still arguing that the contents of Schedule A shouldn’t be fully disclosed. Thomas Baxter , the New York Fed’s general counsel, testified that divulging the names of the CDOs could erode their value: “We will be hurt because traders in the market will know what we’re holding.” Tavakoli calls that wrong. With many CDOs, providing more information to the market will give the manager a greater chance of fetching a realistic price, she says. Jack Gutt , a spokesman for the New York Fed, declined to comment, as did AIG’s Mark Herr . Bad to Worse Tavakoli also says that the poor performance of the underlying securities (which are actually specific slices or tranches of CDOs) shows they were toxic in the first place and were probably replenished with bundles of mortgages that were particularly troubled. Managers who oversee CDOs after they are created have discretion in choosing the mortgage bonds used to replenish them. “The original CDO deals were bad enough,” Tavakoli says. “For some that allow reinvesting or substitution, any reasonable professional would ask why these assets were being traded into the portfolio. The Schedule A shows that we should be investigating these deals.” Among the CDOs on Schedule A with notional values of more than $1 billion, the worst performer was a tranche identified as Davis Square Funding Ltd.’s DVSQ 2006-6A CP. It was held by Societe Generale, underwritten by Goldman Sachs and managed by TCW Group Inc., a Los Angeles-based unit of SocGen, according to Bloomberg data. It lost 77.7 percent of its value — though it isn’t in default and continues to pay. SocGen spokesman James Galvin and TCW spokeswoman Erin Freeman declined to comment. Documentation Needed Ed Grebeck , CEO of Tempus Advisors, a global debt market strategy firm in Stamford, Connecticut, agrees that more digging is necessary. “You need all the documentation and more than that, all the e-mails,” he says. “That would allow us to understand what went wrong and how to fix it going forward.” Neil Barofsky , the special inspector general for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, who delivered a report on the AIG bailout in November, says he’s not finished. He has begun a probe of why his office wasn’t provided all of the 250,000 pages of documents, including e-mails and phone logs, that Issa’s committee received from the New York Fed. Schedule A provides some answers — and raises questions that need to be tackled to avoid the next expensive bailout. To contact the reporter on this story: Richard Teitelbaum in New York at rteitelbaum1@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

John Hope Bryant: Reset: Jobs and What We Need to Do Now

February 22, 2010

In August 2009, Jossey-Bass released my new, now bestselling book Love Leadership: The New Way to Lead in a Fear-Based World , which spoke to a crisis of “virtues and values” amongst leaders at every level, all around the world, and the need for “a new way.” In December 2009, I wrote a piece entitled “Reset,” which made the case that what we are going through now is not a recession but a reset. I have subsequently written here in the Huffington Post that we have “Lost Our Story Line.” Today, I speak again on reset, but in a new series of pieces again inspired from my work at the organization I founded, Operation HOPE, and Love Leadership, which seeks to frame out and set forth a vision of “where we need to go from here.” Remember, I said we need a “reset,” and not a “reboot.” This means we have to become experts in what we are for, and not just what we are against. The problem today is jobs, or the lack thereof. It is the President’s most pressing political problem. It is the economy’s 100 lb anchor, both here at home and around the world, holding back a return to real prosperity. It is the thing (or the lack thereof) that could really derail our beautiful social experiment called “America in the 21st century,” and even spark social unrest, if not addressed. It is the key, the whole key, and nothing but the key, so help me — and we are not doing enough. What’s Not Going to Work Yes, we need a jobs initiative spurred by government, but not one sustained by government. And yes, we need a jobs training program, and infrastructure revitalization initiatives that put Americans back to work and bring America back to life, but none of these government efforts (from a jobs perspective) are the long-term answer. I was in a high-level meeting in Washington, D.C. over the holidays and administration officials asked the assembled group “What do you recommend? What do you want?” I felt like I was the man from Mars with my contributed comments (and this is just fine). More than half of the room, filled with minority advocates for civil rights and social justice (all doing good and honorable work that I respect), said essentially, “A second $700 billion stimulus to create government jobs for the poor.” Not going to happen. Should not happen . Let’s leave aside the fact that the first $700 billion went to fill gaps in state budgets, as the federal government can print money and states cannot, or this massive injection of necessary resources helped to push our overall federal budget deficit over $1 trillion dollars, or the largest deficit, as a percentage of GDP since World War II. Unless we all want President Obama to be written off as “not serious,” we need to get the thought of the federal government printing another $700 billion out of minds. To quote President Obama himself recently, “We all need to learn to live within our means.” That means the federal government too. What’s Not Working, Part I We have to figure out what we are for, and not simply what we are against. Simply blaming free enterprise and capitalism is not the answer either. It wasn’t even the problem. Yes, I said it. Greed was the problem. A horrible culture of “What do I get, and when do I get it” virtues and values were the problem. Bad capitalism was the problem. A short-term, fear-based focus on “what do I get,” versus “what do I have to give,” was the problem. Even more interesting, many if not most of the most egregious financial predators are now out of business totally. • The folks who ran Countrywide into the ground, gone. The old Countrywide, gone. • The folks who pushed some of Wall Street’s best firms into completely unreasonable, eye-popping leverage levels, gone, along with the firms they ran. • The folks who ran AIG into the ground, gone. • The folks at Wachovia who purchased World Savings with its horrible portfolio of wildly adjustable, “pick-a-pay” subprime loans, gone, along with the old companies too. • The arrogant folks at Ameriquest Mortgage in Orange County, California, whom I met several years ago and was mortified by at the time — by the breathlessness of their self-denial and rationalizations — are all gone. • Gone along with Ameriquest is approximately 95% of every other predatory mortgage company in America that preyed on people who either were financially illiterate and wanted that home too badly, or financially illiterate and wanted too much home, or financially illiterate and wanted to simply get rich quick by flipping a home. So fine, let’s have a War Crimes Tribunal for the worst and absolutely the most obvious idiots that got us into this mess (I love what the CEO of Deutsche Bank said in Davos last month: “Rarely have the actions of so few, damaged so many.”), and then let’s get on with it. Not only did US Bank, as an example, not create this mess, but I know personally that senior management actually slammed on the breaks with respect to each and every one of their adjustable rate mortgages, offering each and every one of these clients a fixed rate mortgage in exchange. Now, of course, even my fiend Stevie Wonder can see that we need US Bank and every other major lender in America to begin lending again, an soon, and in so doing to find a reasonable, rational and measured balance between credit availability, innovation, flexibility, minimally acceptable credit scores and loan underwriting criteria in this newly reset world, but Hitler or the Gestapo they are not . America will need its banking sector, credit unions and its mainstream financial service providers fully engaged and at the table of solutions going forward, if we are going to have a prosperity agenda again. We have never had an economic recovery in American history without having the responsible banking sector there, helping to lead the way. So yes, let’s regulate them along other sectors of the broader financial services sector, as I am convinced that capitalism without bumpers or parameters is precisely what leads to a culture of greed, but let’s not throw the baby out with the bath water. And while we are at it, let’s make sure we pin the tail on the right donkey, so to speak. The newly proposed Consumer Federal Regulatory Protection Agency should spend an equal amount of time going after previously unregulated sectors of the financial space — from mortgage companies to mortgage brokers, to payday loan lenders, check cashers, rent to own stores, title lenders, and multiple other predatory lending practices — as it does easy to find and regulated banks and financial giants. As I said in an article for the Economist in late 2008, “It was easier to be a mortgage broker in the crisis than a pimp on a street corner in Detroit, because at least the pimp needs references.” It is entirely possible that, when the dust settles, lightly licensed mortgage brokers and their cousins in the lightly licensed, non-bank mortgage space, were the only folks to make and keep any real money in this crisis. Let me be clear — I am not an advocate for banks, but as they are FDIC insured and federal government-regulated, at least I can find them and hold them accountable when they screw up – which is precisely why we see them hauled before Congress on such a regular basis. Finally, the newly proposed federal consumer protection agency should likewise make real financial literacy its equal partner to sustainable change in our culture and economy, and not merely a new “program” or sub-group within the proposed agency. If we don’t take this seriously, we are merely re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. It will happen again. Post-global economic crisis, and in an economy (the U.S.) that is 70% driven by the consumer, financial literacy is nothing short of the new civil rights issue, and the first of many silver rights empowerment tools. If you don’t understand the language of money today, and you don’t have a bank account today, you are nothing but an economic slave. Or as my personal hero, civil rights icon Ambassador Andrew Young, senior aide to the late Dr. King and global spokesman for Operation HOPE, once told me, “Dr. King and I helped to integrate the lunch counter, but we never integrated the money.” He went on to say that “to live in a system of free enterprise, and not to understand it, or how it works for me, in my life, is the very definition of slavery.” I agree 100%. We have got to make free enterprise and capitalism finally relevant to the poor. We have got to make free enterprise and capitalism finally work for the poor (and the middle class too). We have got to differentiate good capitalism from bad capitalism, and stop making capitalism itself our enemy. Growing up in South Central Los Angeles and Compton, California, I can say with certainty that the only real problem with capitalism was I did not have any, and free enterprise, I didn’t understand it. It was “what I didn’t know, that I didn’t know” that was killing me. I decided to change that, myself. My secret weapon — parents. What’s Not Working, Part II America Supersized. • We want homes, but not small starter ones, like our parents and grandparents once had. We wanted ones that looked like the mansions we believe we deserve, so in the mortgage crisis many, many, many of my middle class friends bought too much high-end house, and today they are part of the growing national subprime mortgage crisis statistic. • We want jobs, and we immediately look, almost with a sense of entitlement, to large companies from Intel to Microsoft to Ford to CNN, without first considering that large companies started off as small ones. Most of America’s job growth comes from small businesses in their first few years of operation. • Our young people graduate from college looking for careers that start with titles like vice president, and director of this, or managing director of that. If the starting salary was not six figures with an expense account and people to report to them, they felt like a failure. • Our economy is still the largest in the world, at approximately $14 trillion (still large enough to place the largest economies of the world within our economy and still have room), but we fail to understand and appreciate that 70% of our economy is actually driven by you and me, buying coffee at the corner market, paying our utilities, car note, day care and mortgage. Furthermore, we have all failed to understand and appreciate that the heart of our great nation is innovation, enterprise, small business, entrepreneurship and the power of great ideas made real. From CNN, to CBS, to Apple and Wal-Mart, to Google Earth — it all started with the power of an idea. Operation HOPE, too. What’s Not Working, Part III Our jobs plan needs, well, help. Short version — this is not a recession; it’s a reset, and corporate jobs are not going to save us, in part because they are not coming back anytime soon. Companies that lay off 10 may rehire 2-4, in time, but fear, uncertainty and an uneasy sense that “something is just not right” with the broader economy, means that CEOs leverage their own legitimate and illegitimate fears, to drive productivity through efficiencies — over productivity through people. Governments are not going to save us either. If you haven’t noticed, local, state and even our federal governments are broke. Imagine your charge card, current but over limit, and your ability to make the minimum payment on the interest charges alone is how you measure success over the short term. And so going forward, governments cannot afford to simply “float” a generation out of work, and corporations are not hiring, so what is an anxious generation, with 1 out of 5 men out of work, to do? Become entrepreneurs , that’s what. What We Need Next What we need next is what we had in the first place in America ; a generation of innovation, entrepreneurs, small business owners and self-employment projects. As we begin National Entrepreneurship Week (NEW) next week throughout the U.S., and I travel to speak at Howard University’s School of Business, Institute for Leadership, Entrepreneurship and Innovation in Washington, D.C., I will start a theme which I plan on significantly amplifying for the enter course of 2010 — we need to get out storyline back. We need to nurture, spur, and spark a generation of entrepreneurship and innovation in America, starting with our young people with too much time and energy on their hands. We need to repurpose capitalism and free enterprise as something that adds value wherever it is deployed, and leaves communities and people better than when they found them. We need to return to our greatest national strength, which is the power of our ideas. For 100 years, our strength was acting on the power of these great ideas, reaping the benefits of becoming wealthy (defined as not limited to financial gains), sometimes rich, sometimes powerful, and then returning to society a legacy defined by how we gave back. Today most of us just want to make some money, and don’t much care how we do it. We need to get our storyline back. What We Can Do Now Whether or not we can get our generation “reset” or not is an open question, but what we can do is to make sure that our children’s generation never faces these same challenges, ever again. Or better still, prepare them so that they can face these and other challenges without compromising their virtues and values. Here is what we should do: 1. Ask Congress and the Obama administration to require financial literacy education for every child from K through college. 2. Ask Congress and the Obama administration to empower every child with a starter bank account at birth, instilling in them at an early age a sense of being a stakeholder in the American experience, but at no time outside of the financial main. 3. Make sure that every child receives a “Course in Dignity,” so that they know the difference between being broke and being poor, and that they know that their real wealth is actually inside of them. As my mother taught me, “Being broke is an economic condition, but being poor is a disabling frame of mind, and a depressed condition of our spirit, and we must vow to never, ever be poor again.” 4. Encourage every American to donate one hour a month, 12 months out of the year, or 12 hours a year, to go into a school classroom, church, mosque, Boys and Girls Club, non-profit or wherever we find children, and to teach them a course in dignity, the language of money, entrepreneurship and small business. At the very least, that young man on the third row, and the young girl on the fifth row, is going to look at you after 30 minutes or so and realize, “wow, I can be you.” And that is when the magic begins. 5. Use the power of the U.S. presidency to “make smart sexy again,” by sparking and inspiring a generation of young people to dream again. To break the back of the crippling high-school dropout rate (between 30-70%) by actually making education relevant to a child’s future. To help a young person understand, as I said to myself when I was 9 years old in Compton, California, listening to a banker with a suit on, for the first time, unpack the mystery of money in my classroom — “how to get rich legally.” That’s financial literacy, free enterprise and capitalism, ownership, opportunity, and entrepreneurship.

Read the full article →

IFIB chief calls for interest-free banking in India

February 22, 2010

IFIB chief calls for interest-free banking in India

Read the full article →

Swine Flu May Have Infected Every Second Schoolchild in U.S., Study Finds

February 22, 2010

By Jason Gale Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) — Swine flu may have infected at least 63 million people in the U.S. last year, according to a study in Pittsburgh, where almost every second schoolchild probably caught the pandemic virus. Blood tests on Pittsburgh residents found 45 percent of people aged 10 to 19 years had antibodies against the new H1N1 flu strain . About 22 percent of people across all groups developed immunity to the virus by early December and a quarter of those born in the 1920s may have already had protective antibodies before the pandemic resulting from prior flu infection, researchers at the University of Pittsburgh found. The findings, reported online yesterday in the Public Library of Science , suggest a fresh wave of swine flu infections isn’t likely unless the virus mutates or people become more susceptible to infection. A World Health Organization advisory panel is holding a teleconference tomorrow to discuss whether the first influenza pandemic in 41 years has peaked. “With current estimates of seroprevalence and continued increases in population due to vaccination, a significant change in viral antigens or a change in population immunity would be required for further disease spread,” Ted Ross, associate professor of microbiology at the university, and colleagues wrote. “We cannot rule out the possibility that geographical pockets of limited immunity may be present in which a third wave may yet occur.” Symptom-Free Cases At least 15,921 people have died from swine flu as the fast-moving pandemic spread to 212 countries and territories since its discovery in North America in April, the WHO said in a Feb. 19 statement . The global tally underestimates the actual number as many deaths are never tested or recognized as influenza related, the Geneva-based agency said. In yesterday’s study, researchers looked for infection- fighting antibodies against the 2009 pandemic flu strain in 846 anonymous blood samples collected in November and early December from people in southwestern Pennsylvania’s Allegheny County ages 1 month to 90 years. The tests identified people who caught the virus, including those who didn’t develop a fever, cough or other flu-like symptoms. The researchers compared the results against tests on blood samples collected in 2008, of which 6 percent contained antibodies that protected against swine flu, probably as a result of infection from a related influenza strain. Children and adolescents in the 10- to 19-year age group had the highest prevalence of swine flu antibodies, while 29 percent of blood samples from children younger than 9 years tested positive. Residents in the 70- to 79-year age group had the lowest prevalence rate of 5 percent. When the researchers extrapolated their findings across the county’s 1.2 million residents, they found swine flu antibodies in 21.5 percent of people, including more than 70,000 school-age children. “Extrapolating these results further to the entire US population, we estimate that 63 million persons became infected in 2009,” the authors wrote. To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Gale in Singapore at j.gale@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Swine Flu May Have Infected Every Second Schoolchild in U.S., Study Finds

February 22, 2010

By Jason Gale Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) — Swine flu may have infected at least 63 million people in the U.S. last year, according to a study in Pittsburgh, where almost every second schoolchild probably caught the pandemic virus. Blood tests on Pittsburgh residents found 45 percent of people aged 10 to 19 years had antibodies against the new H1N1 flu strain . About 22 percent of people across all groups developed immunity to the virus by early December and a quarter of those born in the 1920s may have already had protective antibodies before the pandemic resulting from prior flu infection, researchers at the University of Pittsburgh found. The findings, reported online yesterday in the Public Library of Science , suggest a fresh wave of swine flu infections isn’t likely unless the virus mutates or people become more susceptible to infection. A World Health Organization advisory panel is holding a teleconference tomorrow to discuss whether the first influenza pandemic in 41 years has peaked. “With current estimates of seroprevalence and continued increases in population due to vaccination, a significant change in viral antigens or a change in population immunity would be required for further disease spread,” Ted Ross, associate professor of microbiology at the university, and colleagues wrote. “We cannot rule out the possibility that geographical pockets of limited immunity may be present in which a third wave may yet occur.” Symptom-Free Cases At least 15,921 people have died from swine flu as the fast-moving pandemic spread to 212 countries and territories since its discovery in North America in April, the WHO said in a Feb. 19 statement . The global tally underestimates the actual number as many deaths are never tested or recognized as influenza related, the Geneva-based agency said. In yesterday’s study, researchers looked for infection- fighting antibodies against the 2009 pandemic flu strain in 846 anonymous blood samples collected in November and early December from people in southwestern Pennsylvania’s Allegheny County ages 1 month to 90 years. The tests identified people who caught the virus, including those who didn’t develop a fever, cough or other flu-like symptoms. The researchers compared the results against tests on blood samples collected in 2008, of which 6 percent contained antibodies that protected against swine flu, probably as a result of infection from a related influenza strain. Children and adolescents in the 10- to 19-year age group had the highest prevalence of swine flu antibodies, while 29 percent of blood samples from children younger than 9 years tested positive. Residents in the 70- to 79-year age group had the lowest prevalence rate of 5 percent. When the researchers extrapolated their findings across the county’s 1.2 million residents, they found swine flu antibodies in 21.5 percent of people, including more than 70,000 school-age children. “Extrapolating these results further to the entire US population, we estimate that 63 million persons became infected in 2009,” the authors wrote. To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Gale in Singapore at j.gale@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Gridlock Is Good for Bernanke Dollar in Fight Over Audit of Rate Decisions

February 22, 2010

By Scott Lanman and Mike Dorning Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may be in favor of a do-nothing Congress when it comes to his fight over audits of monetary policy. Opposition in the Senate to a measure that would allow the Government Accountability Office to examine Fed interest-rate decisions is likely to doom the populist cause after it passed in the House Dec. 11, according to Gregory R. Valliere , a chief strategist at Potomac Research Group in Washington. Its defeat would remove a threat that might weaken the dollar while giving Bernanke, who testifies before Congress this week, a freer hand to raise rates as he seeks to unwind a $1 trillion expansion of credit, investors said. “This may be one of the areas where gridlock is a positive for the markets,” said Valliere, who has covered federal issues for investors for more than 30 years. The audit proposal is “very unlikely” to pass this year, he said. Passage during a period of continuing record budget deficits “would be very detrimental to the dollar and would steepen the yield curve, widen credit spreads and cause yields to shift higher,” said Anthony Crescenzi , market strategist and portfolio manager at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, which manages the world’s largest bond fund. The U.S. Dollar Index , a gauge of the greenback against six major currencies, has gained about 3.5 percent this year, in part because investors expect the Fed to keep winding down stimulus and eventually raise interest rates. Emergency Loans The dollar strengthened last week after the Fed increased the rate on emergency loans to banks by a quarter-point to 0.75 percent, the first such move in the discount rate since June 2006, even as the central bank said the change didn’t signal a shift in monetary policy. Traders expect the benchmark federal funds rate to rise at least a quarter-point to 0.5 percent by year-end, based on futures on the Chicago Board of Trade. Economists predict the rate, which banks charge each other on overnight loans, will increase to 2 percent by September 2011, even as the unemployment rate averages 9.1 percent next year, according to the median estimates in a Bloomberg News survey conducted Feb. 4-9. Bernanke, 56, won a 70-30 Senate vote last month for a second four-year term, the most opposition since the chamber started approving Fed chiefs in 1978. He will visit Capitol Hill Feb. 24-25 for semiannual hearings on monetary policy and the economy. ‘Maximum Transparency’ “We will continue to work with the Congress to ensure maximum transparency of America’s central bank, without compromising our ability to conduct policy in the public interest,” Bernanke said Feb. 3 in comments to Fed employees after being ceremonially sworn in for the new term. The audit measure would overturn a provision in a 1978 law that blocks the GAO from examining the Fed’s monetary policy. “To our knowledge, there are no other statutes with such express prohibitions,” said Chuck Young, a spokesman for the office in Washington. Supporters of the provision prevailed in the House, attaching it — over Bernanke’s objections — as an amendment to a broad financial-service regulatory overhaul passed in December. The bill contains passages aimed at assuaging concerns it would interfere with monetary policy, such as a ban on examining unreleased minutes or transcripts of Fed meetings. Similar proposals haven’t garnered enough support so far to pass in the upper chamber and are opposed by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd , a Connecticut Democrat, who is managing the Senate’s version of the financial legislation and will release a draft bill as soon as this week. ‘Very Concerned’ Representative Ron Paul , the Texas Republican who introduced the measure and helped recruit 317 House co-sponsors, said in an interview that he’s “very concerned” about Senate prospects for the provision. Even if it isn’t included in the Senate’s version of the legislation, Paul, author of the 2009 book “End the Fed,” said he would press for it when House and Senate negotiators meet to reconcile differences between each chamber’s bills and draft a final version. The matter might not be resolved this year and could be resurrected after November’s midterm elections for roughly one- third of the Senate and the entire House. Dodd, 65, and other opponents of the audit measure including New Hampshire Republican Judd Gregg , 63, are retiring from the Senate, leaving a potential opening in 2011 for its main backers — Vermont Independent Bernard Sanders , 68, and South Carolina Republican Jim DeMint , 58 — to pick up more support. More Scrutiny Ultimately the Fed is likely to face more scrutiny because of voter anger and congressional concern about a lack of transparency in its bank bailouts and its use of taxpayer funds to aid financial firms such as New York-based American International Group Inc. At issue is how intrusive and intense the oversight will be. “Historically they’ve maintained their secrecy, and that’s true of most central banks in the world,” said University of Texas Professor Robert D. Auerbach in Austin, a former congressional economist and author of the 2008 book “Deception and Abuse at the Fed.” “But we’re in a democracy, a great democracy. We shouldn’t have that here.” The debate over Fed audits goes back to the 1950s and Texas Representative Wright Patman , a populist Democrat who died in 1976 and was historically one of the central bank’s biggest opponents. “Members of Congress have a right to inquire what they have to hide in refusing to permit audits,” Patman, who fought to open the Fed to GAO reviews, said in a 1956 letter published in the Washington Post when Bernanke was two years old. Still Needed The exemption is still needed today, said retired Ohio Representative Thomas Ashley , the Democratic author of the monetary-policy measure in the 1978 law that allowed audits of other Fed operations. “I don’t think the Fed does right in every instance at all, not for a minute,” Ashley, now 87 and living in Michigan, said in an interview. “What I know to an absolute certainty is that it would be a disaster to entrust any of the real operations of the Federal Reserve with the Congress of the United States.” Supporters of audits disagree. “The public is very concerned about the Fed and about these sorts of decisions from the Fed that have been cloaked in ultra-secrecy,” Senator David Vitter , a Louisiana Republican, said in an interview, adding that he’s “open to any suggestions” about how to avoid politicizing the central bank. Identify Borrowers Sanders, a self-described socialist, won a 59-39 vote in April on a nonbinding resolution urging the Fed to identify borrowers, so “we have a very good chance of getting a strong audit-the-Fed amendment through the Senate,” said Warren Gunnels , a Sanders senior policy adviser. Sanders has 32 co-sponsors for a Senate version of Paul’s audit provision, short of the 60 votes it will probably need to overcome procedural delays. “I’ll do whatever I can to stop it,” Gregg said in an interview, calling the measure “pandering populism, which is basically going to significantly undermine our capacity as a nation to manage our money supply.” Attaching the provision as an amendment to the financial- services regulatory overhaul is the only hope this year for the measure, which depends on the fate of the broader bill, said Steve Elmendorf , a Washington lobbyist and senior adviser to then-House Democratic Leader Dick Gephardt . ‘Have a Fight’ “It’s not clear to me that both parties have resolved the question: Do they want to get something done or have a fight” over the bill, Elmendorf said in an interview. The possibility of more GAO oversight is currently a “speculative discussion” that Mark MacQueen , partner and portfolio manager at Austin, Texas-based Sage Advisory Services, said he isn’t factoring into investment decisions. Were Congress to approve the measure, “fears of an audit” may influence policy makers’ decisions and would be “bearish for bonds in the long run,” said MacQueen, whose firm oversees $8.5 billion. Central bankers should have the “backbone” to withstand monetary-policy audits because of their 14-year terms, said Auerbach, 81, the Fed critic. While President Barack Obama ’s administration opposes the audit measure, Lawrence H. Summers , the president’s chief economic adviser, declined in a Feb. 9 interview with Bloomberg Television to say whether Obama would veto legislation containing the provision. ‘Avoid Inflation’ “We support what’s necessary for the Fed to be transparent,” Summers said. At the same time, “a great deal of research demonstrates that an independent Federal Reserve is really crucial, not just if we’re to avoid inflation but also for it to keep interest rates down over time and to maximize growth in employment.” The 55-year-old former Treasury secretary wrote some of that research. In a 1993 paper, Summers and co-author Alberto Alesina of Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, said greater central-bank independence is associated with lower inflation, yet has “no measurable impact on real economic performance.” The audit proposal is the “wrong policy for our central bank” and could result in a “possible rapid decline” in the dollar, Indiana Senator Evan Bayh , 54, said in a Feb. 19 statement to Bloomberg News. The Democrat announced last week he won’t seek re-election this year because there is “too much partisanship and not enough progress” in Congress. “I do believe that a level of increased transparency at the Fed is necessary, and there may be some middle ground that can be achieved to meet that objective, and hopefully that can be worked out for possible inclusion in the financial-regulatory reform bill,” Bayh said. To contact the reporters on this story: Scott Lanman in Washington at slanman@bloomberg.net Mike Dorning in Washington at mdorning@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Alan Schram: Public Finance Crisis

February 21, 2010

The Wall Street Journal recently wrote that more and more municipalities are so strapped for cash, they are considering a chapter 9 filing. Chapter 9 is a seldom-used part of U.S. bankruptcy law that gives municipalities protection from creditors (the largest Chapter 9 case was filed in 1994, when Orange County, Calif., lost $1.6 billion on interest rates derivatives). As tax revenues decline due to harsh economic realities, many cities and counties find it increasingly difficult to meet their interest payments on municipal bonds. Unfortunately, people still believe that municipal bonds are safe, low risk alternative to cash, because historically they experienced low default rates. But with the increasing strain on cities, the old standards no longer apply (and if interest rates rise, which they inevitably must, that would further erode prices of all fixed income instruments). Moreover, a recent Pew Center study shows state pensions have a $1 trillion gap in funding their obligations to pension and health care promised to state employees. In eight states, more than a third of the total liability was unfunded. Two states, Illinois and Kansas, had less than 60% of the assets they need to meet their pension obligations (Illinois alone has an unfunded liability of more than $54 billion). As far as healthcare liabilities go, 41 states are less than 10% funded. The real numbers are worse, because the Pension Plans’ assumptions for future investment returns are between 7.25% to 8.5%. Those assumptions are simply outlandish. It makes no sense for everyone to expect to get 8% returns safely out of an economy that is growing about 3% per annum, unless employing the use of leverage or taking interest rate and foreign currency risk. We cannot all grow faster than the underlying economy. With extremely low interest rates, what seemed like reasonable projections for a portfolio of stocks and bonds are now far too high. With the 10 year T Bills currently yielding less than 4%, expecting the states to earn such a huge margin over the risk-free rate seems like something the Mad Hatter would say to Alice, when she comes to his tea party in Wonderland. Why are pension assumptions worth quibbling over? Because current pension accounting allows pension plans to use an estimate of expected future returns instead of actual returns to compute periodic pension costs. Annual differences between actual and expected returns are accumulated and amortized over time. As a rule of thumb, every 1% less in performance requires an extra 10% in annual funding to counteract. So the difference between 8% to 6% would be very significant. And as Mike Shedlock of Global Economic Trade Analysis notes, many of the states in deepest trouble have the highest pension plan assumptions. Once a state doles out a retirement benefit, it is difficult to rescind it. Pensions are considered contracts, and are thusly protected by law. Even if they weren’t, the political ramifications of touching the “Third Rail” are daunting. No politician would be willing to effectively end their career by alienating government employees and unions in suddenly revoking their benefits. After all, state employees have a point when they say that would be grossly unfair. They have been counting on their retirement benefits for years, and those were always considered part and parcel of their compensation. Yet we can no longer afford these benefits. Reckless politicians in previous generations joined the Gadarene rush and granted generous pension plans, early retirement ages and liberal health benefits. They grew inexorably and as a result, municipalities and states are now at the brink of insolvency. The City of Los Angeles might run out of cash by this summer. California itself has long been in fiscal crisis mode. And at some point our political leaders and the public will have to choose between terminating the social contracts with state employees, ending basic services such as the police or fire departments, or defaulting on their obligations to municipal bond holders. Alan Schram is the Managing Partner of Wellcap Partners, a Los Angeles based investment firm. Email at aschram@wellcappartners.com.

Read the full article →

Bode Miller of U.S. Wins His First Olympic Gold Medal

February 21, 2010

By Erik Matuszewski and Michael Buteau Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) — Bode Miller of the U.S., who considered retiring last year, claimed his first Olympic gold medal in the men’s super-combined Alpine skiing event at the Vancouver Winter Games. Miller, 32, finished in a time of 2 minutes, 44.92 seconds to beat Ivica Kostelic of Croatia and Silvan Zurbriggen of Switzerland. Miller was seventh after the downhill portion of the event before recording the third-fastest time in the slalom runs to fulfill his goal of becoming an Olympic champion. “I had to just get fully fired up to take maximum risk,” Miller told reporters. “When I crossed the line, I did my normal thing where I stood for a second. For my first Olympic gold, it’s perfect.” The most successful Alpine skier in U.S. history with 32 World Cup victories, Miller won two silver medals at the 2002 Salt Lake City Games. He then failed to medal in any of his five races at the 2006 Turin Games and took a hiatus from the sport while considering retirement last year. Miller decided to return to the U.S. ski team and won a silver medal and a bronze in his first two races of the Vancouver Games before today’s gold. His five Olympic medals are the most by a U.S. Alpine skier. “It feels great to have the freedom to ski the way I want without worrying about results,” Miller said in an interview broadcast on Canada’s CTV. “In Turin, I didn’t want to be there.” Eighth U.S. Alpine Medal Miller’s gold was the eighth medal in Alpine events for the U.S., which tops the Winter Games standings with 23 overall. The previous high for Alpine medals in a Winter Olympics for the U.S. was five at the 1984 Games in Sarajevo. The U.S. now has seven gold medals in Vancouver, two better than Germany, Norway and Switzerland, and three ahead of host Canada. Germany is second in the total medal standings with 16, followed by Norway with 12. Magdalena Neuner claimed her second gold medal of the Games for Germany in the women’s biathlon 12.5-kilometer mass sprint at Whistler Olympic Park. Russia’s Olga Zaitseva took the silver and Germany’s Simone Hauswald received the bronze. Russia’s Evgeny Ustyugov , 24, won the men’s 15-kilometer biathlon, the second gold medal of the Games for Russia. Martin Fourcade of France was second, while Pavol Hurajt took the bronze for Slovakia. Michael Schmid of Switzerland won the gold medal in the men’s ski cross, an event making its Olympic debt in Vancouver. Austria’s Andreas Matt was the silver medalist, with Norway’s Audun Groenvold taking bronze. Two More Medals Medals also will be awarded in women’s 1,500-meter speedskating and men’s two-man bobsleigh. The start time for the bobsleigh event was pushed back 2 1/2 hours to 4 p.m. due to warm weather at the track on Blackcomb Mountain. Canada will play the U.S. today in men’s preliminary round hockey, as the Americans look to end a 50-year drought against the Canadians in Olympic competition. The matchup, scheduled for 4:40 p.m. local time, precedes a game between Sweden, the defending Olympic champions, and Finland. Russia beat the Czech Republic 4-2 in an earlier game. Canada and the U.S. have faced each other 15 times in Olympic competition, with Canada winning 10 and tying three. The last U.S. victory came in 1960 in Squaw Valley, California. U.S. forward Chris Drury said his squad is relishing the chance to upset the Canadians on home ice. “Clearly no one is picking us to win,” Drury, who plays for the National Hockey League’s New York Rangers, said yesterday. “No one’s betting a nickel on us. U.S. hockey has come so far. Now, it doesn’t take a miracle for us to win.” To contact the reporters on this story: Erik Matuszewski in Whistler, British Columbia, at matuszewski@bloomberg.net Michael Buteau in Vancouver, at mbutea@bloomberg.net , and

Read the full article →

U.S. Conservatives Fuel Primary Races Against Some Republican Incumbents

February 21, 2010

By Jonathan D. Salant Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) — Before the activists at this week’s Conservative Action Political Conference battle Democratic candidates in the fall election, they’re first helping challenge some Republican officeholders. Insurgents such as former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio , former Representative J.D. Hayworth of Arizona and Utah lawyer Mike Lee — all running against well-established Republicans in party primaries — have found receptive audiences among those attending the annual gathering sponsored by the American Conservative Union in Washington. “I’d rather have 30 Republicans in the Senate who believe in the principles of freedom than 60 who don’t believe in anything,” Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina told the conference. “I believe in holding incumbent Republican senators accountable.” CPAC is an irresistible draw for those wanting to do just that. “The conservatives are the base of the Republican Party,” said Hayworth, who is trying to upend Senator John McCain in the Arizona Republican primary. During the three-day conference that ended yesterday, speakers heard from three potential 2012 Republican presidential candidates, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty , former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia. The two top House Republicans, John Boehner of Ohio and Eric Cantor of Virginia, also spoke. Republican Victory Predicted Gingrich predicted that Republicans will win control of both the House and the Senate in the fall election. He attacked proposed tax increases, saying “any tax increase is a job- killing measure and should be defeated” and described the Democratic leadership as a “secular, socialist machine.” Pawlenty said that if conservatives take power, “we need to do what we say we’re going to do.” Conservatives “need to go to Washington, D.C., and walk the walk.” The dissatisfaction fueling the primary races against McCain and other Republicans stems from the party’s record when it controlled Congress and the White House during most of former President George W. Bush’s first six years in office. “You are seeing the movement very consciously separating itself from the Republican Party,” said political consultant Craig Shirley , author of two books on President Ronald Reagan . “The movement dictates to the Republican Party, not the other way around.” Project Funding Under Republican congressional majorities, the number of earmarks, or local projects receiving federal funding, tripled to 12,852 in 2006 from 4,126 in 1994, according to the Congressional Research Service. Republicans also passed a new Medicare prescription drug program. When Bush took office in 2001, the federal budget had a $128 billion surplus; when he left in 2009, the annual deficit was projected to exceed $1 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office. “Ask yourself, who were the last people to break our hearts? The Republicans.” said former House Majority Leader Dick Armey , a Texas Republican who now heads FreedomWorks, a Washington-based advocacy group. “The last time you were jilted, did you go back to that person? Republicans don’t have credibility yet.” Armey’s group has endorsed Lee’s primary challenge to Utah Republican Senator Bob Bennett , who is seeking a third term and whose father served four Senate terms. “It’s very sad to me that the Republicans had the majority and yet look at what happened to the debt,” Lee said. “That’s why people need to be held accountable.” Florida Race The Club for Growth , a Washington-based group that pushes for lower taxes, endorsed Rubio over Governor Charlie Crist in Florida’s Republican primary for a Senate seat. Chist has been endorsed by National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn of Texas and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. “We are witnessing the single greatest political pushback in American history,” Rubio told the convention Feb. 18. “A long list of early establishment endorsements will not spare you a primary.” Club for Growth President Chris Chocola , a former Republican congressman from Indiana, questioned the party establishment’s endorsement of candidates such as Bennett and Crist, as well as its support for state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava in New York’s 23th Congressional District in a special election last year. Palin’s Backing Some Republicans, including 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin , backed Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman . The Scozzafava-Hoffman split led to Bill Owens winning the special election and becoming the first Democrat to represent New York’s northeast corner in the House in more than a century. Chocola told the convention he was skeptical that most Republican leaders “have learned the lessons of the 2006 and 2008 elections,” when the party lost House and Senate seats. “A lot of grassroots conservatives are wary of the Republican leadership,” said Larry Hart, government relations director for the American Conservative Union. “They felt betrayed.” Tea Party activists, a group of self-described supporters of limited government that formed during the past year, were among the 10,000 the organizers of the Conservative Political Action Conference said were attending. Tea Party members, who held their own convention earlier this month, said their support for Republican nominees wasn’t automatic. ‘Principles-Based’ The movement is “principles-based, not party-based,” said Mark Meckler of Sacramento, California, a co-founder and national coordinator of Tea Party Patriots . “It’s not about the political machine; it’s about the people.” Boehner, the House Republican leader , in his speech to the conservative conference pledged to operate Congress “differently than the way the House has been run under both Democrats and Republicans.” He also said he would focus on listening to conservative activists, not dictating to them. “The Republican Party should not attempt to co-opt the tea parties,” Boehner said in his speech at the conservative conference. “What we will do is respect them, listen to them and walk amongst them. The other party will never ever do that.” To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan D. Salant in Washington at jsalant@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

U.K. Conservatives Pledge to Sell Bank Shares to Voters as Poll Lead Slips

February 21, 2010

By Gonzalo Vina Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) — David Cameron’s opposition Conservatives pledged to sell U.K. government stakes in Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Lloyds Banking Group Plc to voters as their support continued to slip in opinion polls. The plan to sell shares at a discounted price, outlined by Conservative Treasury spokesman George Osborne , comes as voters move away from the party after it called for spending cuts to start this year to reduce the budget deficit. A poll by YouGov Plc in the Sunday Times newspaper showed the Conservative lead over Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s Labour Party at its narrowest since December 2008. Brown and Cameron have stepped up campaigning as they prepare for an election that must be held by June. Brown called on voters yesterday to “take a second look” at Labour as he rebutted accusations that he had bullied staff. Polls suggest Brown may deprive Cameron of an overall parliamentary majority. “All the polls are now floating around a Tory lead of about eight points,” Anthony Wells , a pollster at YouGov, said on his U.K. Polling Report Web site today. “That’s a significant narrowing from the 10-point lead that seemed to be the norm a couple of months back, or last summer’s mid-teen leads.” Ninth Poll YouGov said the Conservatives had the backing of 39 percent of those surveyed, down one percentage point from a month ago, while Labour were backed by 33 percent, up two points. Details of when the poll was taken and the margin of error weren’t given. It’s the ninth poll in the past two weeks to indicate a shrinking Conservative lead over Labour, after data showing the economy exited recession in the fourth quarter of 2009. A ComRes survey for Theos, a theological policy research group, published today showed Conservative support at 38 percent and Labour at 30 percent. ComRes interviewed 1,001 adults by telephone on Feb. 17-18. No margin of error was given. The Conservative plans would allow voters to buy the bank shares at a discount to the market price through tax-free Individual Savings Accounts. The program would be combined with sales to institutional investors. “Taxpayers bailed out the banks, so they deserve a ‘people’s bank bonus’ when the time comes to sell the government’s shares,” Osborne said in a statement. The government took stakes in the banks in the wake of the 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. It bought 84 percent of Edinburgh-based RBS for 45.5 billion pounds ($70 billion) and 43 percent of Lloyds for 20.5 billion pounds. Low Earners Osborne said the policy was aimed at encouraging people on low incomes to save more money. Lawmakers from Osborne’s team have met with investment bankers and advisers to develop the plan, the party said in a statement. Business Secretary Peter Mandelson dismissed the proposal in an interview with BBC Television as a “silly little gimmick,” saying retail investors already can buy shares at a “knock-down price.” Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling says the government will only sell its stakes in the banks when the shares have recovered enough to make a profit for taxpayers. Neither party has committed itself to a timetable for disposal. Brown’s office today denied allegations in a book by Andrew Rawnsley , the chief political commentator of the Observer Sunday newspaper, that the prime minister had mistreated officials. Extracts from the book published in today’s edition included the allegation that Gus O’Donnell , Britain’s most senior civil servant, had investigated Brown’s treatment of staff. ‘No Shrinking Violet’ In his BBC interview Mandelson rejected accusations that Brown was abusive toward staff, though he said the premier is “no shrinking violet.” Brown is someone who gets “quite emotional, is quite passionate, who gets angry, but chiefly with himself,” Mandelson said. “I don’t think he bullies people, but he is demanding of people.” The allegations came a day after Brown called on voters to scrutinize Conservative plans more closely. He said Cameron’s plans to cut government spending more quickly and deeply than Labour threatened to derail the economic recovery and impose unnecessary austerity. “I know that Labour hasn’t done everything right, and I know — really, I know — that I’m not perfect,” Brown said, urging the electorate to “take a second look at us and take a long, hard look at them.” To contact the reporter on this story: Gonzalo Vina in London at gvina@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Dutch Government Collapses Over Split on Extending Presence in Afghanistan

February 20, 2010

By Jurjen van de Pol Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) — The Dutch government collapsed for a fifth time since April 2002 after the Labor Party refused a NATO request to extend the country’s military stay in Afghanistan’s Uruzgan province. “Later today I will offer to Queen Beatrix the resignation of the ministers and state secretaries of the Labor Party,” said Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende after a 16-hour Cabinet meeting in The Hague today. Balkenende, a member of the Christian Democratic Alliance , said he will also put the functions of the remaining Cabinet members at the Queen’s disposal. Labor Party Deputy Prime Minister Wouter Bos on Feb. 17 fueled tensions by rejecting a request by NATO for the Dutch military to remain in Uruzgan, opposing Christian Democratic Alliance Foreign Minister Maxime Verhagen’s call to keep troops in the region. “As a member of the Cabinet we couldn’t even say that continuation of the mission in Uruzgan didn’t have sufficient support in parliament,” Bos, who is also finance minister, said at a press conference in The Hague today. “Under these circumstances the Labor Party couldn’t credibly be a part of the Cabinet.” The North Atlantic Treaty Organization asked the Netherlands earlier this year to prolong its military presence in Uruzgan with fewer than the current 2,000 troops to help train Afghan forces. Afghanistan Casualties “The existing decision will be executed, that means the end of the leading role of the Netherlands in Uruzgan per August 2010,” Defense State Secretary Jack de Vries of the Christian Democratic Alliance told Dutch broadcaster NOS today. Twenty-one Dutch soldiers have died in Afghanistan since an initial contingent of 220 infantry troops was deployed in Kabul in 2002. The troops are part of a NATO-led mission fighting against Taliban insurgents. The government promised parliament last year to decide on the military stay before March 1, two days before municipal elections. U.S. President Barack Obama has authorized 50,000 reinforcements for Afghanistan to reverse Taliban gains in the war that began in October 2001. With Dutch participation in Afghanistan now in its eighth year, polls show dwindling public support. About 36 percent of the population opposed the mission in January, up from 32 percent in December, while the number of supporters declined to 33 percent from 38 percent, according to a monthly poll by the Defense Ministry. Next Elections The clash over the extension of the Dutch mission in Uruzgan comes days after Balkenende survived a Feb. 17 no- confidence vote in parliament. The vote came after an independent Dutch commission said the government didn’t fully inform lawmakers about its backing for the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. Balkenende, 53, will now tender the resignation of his ministers for the fourth time to Queen Beatrix. One option available is to bring forward parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2011. Elections could take place within three months after the resignation. Balkenende’s Christian Democratic Alliance would lose nine seats in parliament, allowing it to provide 32 of the 150 lawmakers, if elections were held today, according to a poll by Synovate on Feb. 18. Two weeks ago, the party held 34 seats in the poll. Labor to Gain With the municipal elections in less than two weeks, the Labor Party is set to gain from opposing the military presence in Uruzgan, winning 21 parliament seats in this week’s poll, up from 20 seats in the previous survey. Labor is still 12 seats away from the 33 it gained in the last elections. “We will keep the promise we made to the voters two years ago that the last Dutch troops will have left Uruzgan by the end of the year,” Bos told Dutch television RTL on Feb. 17. The coalition government of Christian Democrats, Labor and the Christian Union would lose its majority in the 150-seat lower house, the survey showed, falling to 61 seats from 80. The Freedom Party of Geert Wilders , the lawmaker who made a film linking the Koran to violence, will rise to 24 seats from the 9 seats it now occupies, making it the second-biggest party, according to the poll. Bos last year ruled out forming a coalition government with Wilders. The government’s collapse comes as the Netherlands recovers from the worst recession in at least six decades. Dutch government bureau CPB forecast the deficit will narrow to 4.7 percent of gross domestic product next year from 6.1 percent this year, bringing the budget gap closer to a target, set by the European Union in November, of 3 percent of GDP by 2013. No ‘Big Consequences’ “I don’t expect the government collapse to have big consequences for the 2011 budget,” said Charles Kalshoven , an economist at ING Groep NV in Amsterdam. “The CPB projections show the need for extra budget cuts is not that urgent.” The fall of his fourth government is another setback for Balkenende, who in November was passed over for the job of first European Union president. A former professor of Christian philosophy, Balkenende was sworn in to lead his first Cabinet in 2002, just two months after right-wing politician Pim Fortuyn was assassinated. The three-party coalition survived 87 days. Balkenende’s fourth Cabinet took office in February 2007. In April 2002, then-Labor Prime Minister Wim Kok’s coalition with the VVD and D66 resigned after a report by the Netherlands Institute for War Documentation concluded the Dutch army wasn’t prepared for its role in defending refugees in the Bosnian town of Srebrenica from a massacre in 1995. To contact the reporter on this story: Jurjen van de Pol in Amsterdam at jvandepol@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Dave Johnson: Whirlpool Bites Hands Of American Taxpayers That Feed It

February 19, 2010

This post originally appeared at Campaign for America’s Future (CAF) at their Blog for OurFuture as part of the Making It In America project. I am a Fellow with CAF. Whirlpool, recipient of federal stimulus “smart grid” dollars, is closing an Evansville, Indiana freezer-topped refrigerator and icemaker production plant and moving the 1,100 jobs to Mexico. Whirlpool knows that taxpayers will shoulder the unemployment and other costs. Closing a plant like this also means all the supplier, transportation and other third-party jobs go away. For example, 100+ Disabled Workers Could Lose Jobs Whirlpool employees aren’t the only ones losing their jobs when the plant closes. More than 100 blind or disabled individuals could also be left jobless. The Evansville Association for the Blind has issued a public plea, asking businesses to consider using their employees. There will be more home foreclosures, and local businesses are stressed or have to go out of business. Whirlpool is profiting from making all this someone else’s problem. Whirlpool is even playing nearby Iowa against Indiana, shaking the state down for millions to move just 60 of the 1,100 jobs there. So, of course, Wall Street celebrates the move, the setting states against each other, the cost-shifting and the resulting “increase in margins.” The workers are still trying to do something about this. Inside Indiana Business writes about a rally on February 26, Organizers have invited guests including AFL/CIO President Richard Trumka and Jim Clark, president of the IUE-CWA union with which Local 808 is affiliated. Employees with the least seniority are expected to lose their jobs first, March 26. The remaining workers will be let go until production ceases in early summer. Richard Trumka, AFL-CIO President, writes: The Whirlpool Corp. is closing a refrigerator manufacturing plant in Evansville, Ind., putting more than 1,100 people out of work. Even worse, Whirlpool will continue to produce these refrigerators, but not in Evansville and not anywhere else in America. They are planning to manufacture them in Mexico, where weaker labor and environmental laws make them “cheaper” for Whirlpool to produce. This is outrageous and unacceptable, especially in light of Whirlpool’s profitability and the $19 million dollars in economic recovery money Whirlpool recently received from the federal government as a part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Those are OUR economic recovery funds, not Mexico’s. You can sign their Whirlpool: Keep It Made in America petition here . Will Congress listen?

Read the full article →