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Of EU-US strained ties

by on February 8, 2012

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(MENAFN – Khaleej Times) When Thomas de Maiziere described the state of the trans- Atlantic relationship to a packed audience in Munich, he shied away from unpalatable truths. Yes, the German …

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Of EU-US strained ties

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(MENAFN) Official data showed that German factory orders grew in December, as the demand from outside the euro area helped avoiding sovereign debt crisis, Bloomberg reported. According to the …

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German factory orders grow 1.7% in January

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German industries urges China to lift restrictions on raw materials

February 1, 2012

(MENAFN – Saudi Press Agency) The Federation of German Industries (BDI) urged China on Tuesday to promptly lift restrictions on the export of important raw materials after losing a case before the …

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Brazil’s MPX, Germany’s E.ON to form JV

January 12, 2012

(MENAFN) Brazil’s MPX said that it would form a joint venture with German utility E.ON AG, which would aim at investing in the Brazilian and Chilean energy markets, reported Xinhua News. The …

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The U.S. Cities With The Highest And Lowest Unemployment Rates

January 7, 2012

Unemployment rates fell in three-quarters of large U.S. cities in November. The second straight month of declines for most major markets suggests the modest improvement in the job market is widespread. The Labor Department said Wednesday that unemployment rates fell in 277 metro areas. They rose in 71 and were unchanged in 29. In October, 281 cities reported having lower unemployment rates, the most in seven months. The metro area unemployment data can be volatile because they aren’t adjusted for seasonal variations, such as hiring for the winter holiday. Nationwide, the unemployment rate fell to 8.6 percent in November, the lowest level in 2 ½ years. Employers added about 120,000 net jobs. Still, a big reason the unemployment rate fell was because more people said they have given up on their job searches and dropped out of the work force. Below are the cities with the highest and lowest rates:

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Dr. Sasha Galbraith: Bayer CropScience’s Sandra Peterson: Successful Woman CEO Navigates in a Man’s World

December 13, 2011

In today’s era of business uncertainty, coupled with women’s increasingly difficult ascent to the top of major corporations, one woman is successfully climbing the ladder two (or three) rungs at a time (often with a sidestep in between). I recently spoke with Sandra E. Peterson, CEO of Bayer CropScience — a $10 billion business that’s part of the German industrial giant Bayer AG. Sandra Peterson, 52 and a New York City native, has an impressive resume showcasing her wealth of experience running product lines, businesses and entire divisions for the likes of Whirlpool, Nabisco, Merck-Medco and, finally, Bayer. In several cases she has taken on the challenge of turning around a business and making it profitable. Peterson says her road to the top was never a straight line, and she’s always taken on risky roles. In fact, she thinks that women need to take more risks in order to get ahead. “Most women I know who have been successful in business, it’s because they’ve been willing to take on the risky challenge that other people would say, ‘Oh, I’m not sure I want to do that.’ If you look at my career, I’ve taken on a lot of risky roles. They were risky to some people, but to me it was, ‘Wow, this is this great opportunity and it’s allowing me to learn new things and take on a bigger role and a bigger organization.’ But some people would view that as, ‘Are you crazy? What do you know about diabetes, or what do you know about washing machines or the food industry or automobiles or the agricultural industry?’” But Sandra has aligned purpose with passion — choosing jobs that fit with her interests. In particular, she looks for positions that: • offer an opportunity to think about the customer and the market differently, • are global in nature; • present innovation and technology challenges, particularly in science policy, • can benefit from her goals of broadening diversity based on gender, geography and generation; and • are turnaround situations with potential for future growth and innovation in the business. Variety and New Challenges Sandra has worked in six different industries, and each of the high-profile senior executive jobs she’s held over the past 20 years has presented welcomed challenges. Many women — and men — would prefer not to start afresh with a new company and organization over and over again. I asked her how she approached these situations. “When I walk into a new organization and I don’t know the industry or the people, which has always been the case, I do a few things. One is I think about the business from the outside in. I spend a fair amount of time early on with customers [to] understand what the market wants and needs versus what we want to sell them. Those are two very different things, right? And so I spend time outside directly interacting with customers, but then interacting with the people on the front lines like the sales and marketing people.” She also tells everyone to expect her to ask a lot of questions. Sandra meets with people at various levels in the organization to get a sense of what is working well and what needs improvement. “One of the things I’ve learned is people are smart and they understand what should be done. They understand what the challenges are, but they’re not always able to have their voices heard.” Based on the input she gets, Sandra then gives key people more prominent leadership roles, which she finds unleashes a torrent of positive energy throughout the organization. This is the first post in a series about Sandra Peterson, CEO of Bayer CropScience. In the next post, I’ll examine Sandra’s leadership philosophy and approach for mentoring middle management in her organization. This post first appeared on Forbes.com .

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Hints Europe’s Crisis May Already Be Taking Toll On Corporate America

December 10, 2011

NEW YORK (Caroline Valetkevitch) – On top of euro zone debt troubles, Wall Street now has to worry about sagging sales from Europe as a recession in the region seems more likely. Warnings from companies such as chemical maker DuPont (DD.N) and chip maker Texas Instruments (TXN.N) suggest the crisis may already be taking its toll on corporate America. While holiday shopping has started on an upbeat note, the corporate warnings could sour the cheer for some investors. “We are now beginning to see the collateral damage of the events in Europe with the earnings guidance cuts,” wrote Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. Fourth – and first-quarter earnings growth estimates for Standard & Poor’s 500 companies have come down sharply since July, underscoring worries about the outlook for companies. Earnings are now expected to increase 10.1 percent for the fourth quarter, down from a growth estimate of 15 percent at the start of October and from an estimate of 17.6 percent in July, according to Thomson Reuters data. The data also showed that negative preannouncements by companies are outpacing positive ones by the biggest ratio since the second quarter of 2001. Late Thursday, Texas Instruments cut its revenue outlook for the current quarter, citing lower demand, while DuPont on Friday lowered its full-year profit forecast. Overseas, German specialty chemicals group Wacker Chemie (WCHG.DE) also cut its outlook, with the industry worried about slower global growth. Among others in technology, Lattice Semiconductor Corp (LSCC.O) cut its fourth-quarter revenue outlook on Friday. Stocks mostly brushed off the bearish news on earnings, focusing instead on Europe after nearly all European Union leaders agreed to build a closer fiscal union to battle the sovereign debt crisis. But the market for months has struggled with the news from Europe, which featured the lack of resolution to the debt crisis, causing high uncertainty for investors. “Today was a positive move forward. Unfortunately European austerity will impact global corporate earnings going into the next year,” said Chad Morganlander, portfolio manager at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co in Florham Park, New Jersey. “European policymakers’ inability to placate investor fears has business decision-makers hesitant to give positive light to the coming months,” he said. Stocks ended with gains for a second straight week, and the profit warnings came on the heels of what has been considered a fairly robust third-quarter reporting period. For the week, the Dow rose 1.4 percent, the S&P gained 0.9 percent and the Nasdaq was up 0.8 percent. Earnings increased 17.9 percent for the third quarter, according to Thomson Reuters data, up from a forecast for 13.1 percent growth in early October. Prospects for profit and revenue growth have been among the chief reasons why a good number of analysts remain optimistic about stocks heading into 2012. Kenneth Fisher, a billionaire investor and author whose money management firm oversees $40 billion in assets, said 2012 “will be a very nice year” for the United States. “Revenue growth, as a function of the economy, is pretty damn gangbusters,” he said at the Reuters 2012 Investment Outlook Summit this week. FORECASTS HIT Still, the aggregate change in consensus earnings estimates has been coming down even over the past month, according to Thomson Reuters StarMine data. All but two S&P 500 sectors — healthcare and consumer staples — show negative earnings revisions to estimates over the past 30 days, the data showed. Materials and financials are among sectors showing the biggest drops in estimates. For the fourth quarter, earnings for the materials sector are now expected to have decreased 1.4 percent from a year ago, while in October earnings were expected to have risen 25.6 percent. Financials, seen as the sector most sensitive to euro zone problems, also have taken a hit. Sector earnings are expected to have increased 18.3 percent for the fourth quarter, down from an October 3 forecast for growth of 26.6 percent. S&P 500 revenue is expected to have increased 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter compared with revenue growth of 11.1 percent in the third quarter, Thomson Reuters data showed. “A lot of companies are talking about Europe,” and its effect going forward, said Greg Harrison, Thomson Reuters earnings research analyst. Also, lackluster trading volumes are going to affect financials here in the United States, he said. Companies seemed more optimistic heading into 2011. Consumer confidence was higher, and the crisis in Europe seemed more contained. Among companies with disappointing outlooks a year ago were Xilinx (XLNX.O) and Jo-Ann Stores, which forecast a weak 2011 profit on Dec 1, 2010 but was bought by a private equity firm in January. (Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Additional reporting by Ernest Scheyder and Nicola Leske; Editing by Kenneth Barry) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Occupy LA Remains Defiant Ahead Of Deadline To Vacate

November 27, 2011

By ANDREW DALTON, Associated Press LOS ANGELES — Despite a fast-approaching deadline set by the mayor and police chief, very few of the anti-Wall Street protesters from Occupy Los Angeles had begun breaking down their tents Saturday on the City Hall lawn – and most said they didn’t intend to. The Occupy LA encampment was abuzz with activity, but nearly all of it was aimed at how to deal with authorities come Monday’s 12:01 a.m. deadline. (CLICK HERE FOR LIVE UPDATES) Some handed out signs mocked up to look like the city’s notices to vacate, advertising a Monday morning “eviction block party.” Dozens attended a teach-in on resistance tactics, including how stay safe in the face of rubber bullets, tear gas canisters and pepper spray. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa announced Friday that despite his sympathy for the protesters’ cause, it was time for the camp of nearly 500 tents to leave for the sake of public health and safety. The mayor said the movement is at a “crossroads,” and it must “move from holding a particular patch of park to spreading the message of economic justice.” But occupiers did not intend to give up their patch of park too easily. Will Picard, who sat Saturday in a tent amid his artwork with a “notice of eviction” sign posted outside, said the main organizers and most occupiers he knows intend to stay. “Their plan is to resist the closure of this encampment and if that means getting arrested so be it,” Picard said. “I think they just want to make the police tear it down rather than tear it down themselves.” But some agreed with the mayor that the protest had run its course. “I’m going,” said Luke Hagerman, who sat looking sad and resigned in the tent he’s stayed in for a month. “I wish we could have got more done.” Villaraigosa expressed pride that Los Angeles has lacked the tension, confrontation and violence seen at similar protests in other cities. But that peace was likely to get its biggest test on Monday. Police gave few specifics about what tactics they would use for those who had no intention of leaving. Chief Charlie Beck said at Friday’s news conference that officers would definitely not be sweeping through the camp and arresting everyone just after midnight. But in an interview with the Los Angeles Times on Sunday, Beck said that despite the lack of confrontations in the camp’s two-month run, he was realistic about what must happen. “I have no illusions that everybody is going to leave,” Beck said in an interview with the Times. “We anticipate that we will have to make arrests.” But he added, “We certainly will not be the first ones to apply force.” Ue Daniels, 21, said as an artist he’s “as nonviolent as they come” but he planned on resisting removal any way he could. “I think we’ll comply as far as putting our tents on the sidewalk maybe, that’s something that’s been going around.” But as far as leaving altogether? “They would probably have to drag me away,” he said. He also suspected that though the general consensus among campers is to stay, he expects many will change their mind once police arrive. “I don’t know who’s going to stay, you can say something, but you never know until you’re in the situation how you’re going to react.”

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German Chancellor: Europe Has A Long Road Ahead

November 5, 2011

BERLIN – German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Saturday it would take a decade before the euro zone was in a better position and there was much work left to be done to solve the bloc’s sovereign debt crisis. “(It will) certainly take a decade until we are in a better position again,” Merkel said in her weekly podcast. “We have a whole chunk of work ahead of us, I’ve got to say.” Merkel spoke a day after the euro zone failed to secure new money at a G20 summit from potential investors such as China and Brazil for its efforts to overcome the debt crisis. Uncertainty about efforts to tackle the crisis persisted on Saturday. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, who survived a confidence vote on Friday but is expected to step down, said negotiations to form a coalition government would start soon. He called for a broad-based government to secure a bailout from the euro zone, the main weapon in Europe’s battle against the spreading economic crisis. Merkel said all of Europe had overspent for years but welcomed that all euro zone members had agreed to a debt brake like Germany’s. “Almost all European countries have spent more over the years than they earned,” she said. (Reporting by Annika Breidthardt; Editing by Susan Fenton) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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German Central Bank Head: Repeatedly Expanding Bailout Fund Won’t Solve Crisis

October 22, 2011

BERLIN (Reuters) – Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann said in a newspaper interview released on Saturday that repeatedly expanding the euro zone rescue fund won’t resolve the euro zone crisis. In an interview with Bild am Sonntag released ahead of publication, Weidmann also warned against giving the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) a banking license. He said that would be a fatal path to take if states were able to switch on the printing presses. Weidmann also said that raising the leverage of the EFSF would raise risks for German taxpayers. He said there were “good reasons” that EU treaties prevent the EFSF from obtaining a bank license. “The crisis won’t be resolved by permanently increasing the size of the euro zone rescue fund,” Weidmann said. Weidmann warned giving the EFSF a banking license would be tantamount to “turning on the printing presses for state finances and that would be in my view a fatal path to take. And there are good reasons that is forbidden by EU treaties.” He appealed to euro zone governments, saying they “must make a clear decision about which direction to go, how the future of the monetary union should continue.” Weidmann said it should also be remembered that there were also risks associated with increasing the leveraging the EFSF. “With the size of the leveraging obviously the size of the risk rises,” he said. “The fundamental question is how long will it work in the euro zone that countries continue to operate their policies independently while at the same time increasingly collectivising the risks.” He warned against subordinating the central bank beneath financial policy. “Its mission to ensure monetary stability and low inflation rates could then no longer be ensured.” (Reporting By Erik Kirschbaum) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Credit Suisse to pay $206 million to settle German tax

September 19, 2011

By Martin de Sa’Pinto ZURICH (Reuters) – Credit Suisse said on Monday it has agreed to pay 150 million euros ($206 million) in Germany to end an investigation into employees of the Swiss bank by the public prosecutor’s office in Duesseldorf concerning tax evasion. “A complex and prolonged legal dispute has been avoided, with an agreed solution that provides legal certainty,” the bank said in a statement. Later this week the German and Swiss governments are looking to sign a deal on taxing money stashed by German citizens in secret Swiss accounts, a German government source told Reuters on Sunday. The terms of the deal were struck in August when Switzerland and Germany agreed to tax money held by German citizens in secret accounts, estimated at up to 150 billion Swiss francs ($171 billion). The agreement could set a model for agreements between Switzerland and other countries, although they still require the approval of the Swiss and German parliaments. Credit Suisse has come under increasing scrutiny from prosecutors in Germany this year. In August Duesseldorf’s chief prosecutor Ralf Moellmann said his office intended to intensify its probe of Credit Suisse, after the bank’s offices in Germany were raided in February as part of a broader clampdown on tax evasion. Credit Suisse’s payment is higher than that of smaller rival Julius Baer , which earlier this year agreed to pay German tax authorities 50 million euros to close a tax probe and avoid potential legal action against the bank and its employees in the country. Credit Suisse is also the target of a formal U.S. tax probe, and a number of current employees and former employees have been charged with helping U.S. citizens dodge U.S. taxes. The United States is also pushing for a deal similar to the one struck on UBS client data two years ago, seeking details of all U.S. clients with accounts worth at least $50,000 between 2002 and 2010 at banks including Credit Suisse, Julius Baer and Wegelin as well as some regional banks. ($1=0.725 euros) ($1 = 0.875 Swiss Francs) (Editing by Greg Mahlich)

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Mohamed A. El-Erian: Time for a Smaller and Stronger Eurozone

September 17, 2011

The euro is central to Europe’s economic prosperity, financial stability and political harmony. Moreover, given America’s own set of economic challenges, a well-anchored euro is critical to placing an increasingly multi-polar world economy back on the path of high growth and job creation. The euro should, indeed must, be saved. And it can be saved provided Europe is willing to make hard structural and institutional decisions. Difficult choices are often avoided in favor of the “status quo.” This tends to be the path of least resistance. But there is no status quo in today’s Europe. Absent a change in approach, the crisis will continue to spread, fragmentation pressure will mount and the Euro will be even more vulnerable to policy mistakes and market accidents. The time has come for the eurozone — Germany and France in particular, but also Austria, Finland and the Netherlands — to decide how they would like European integration to evolve; and they need to do so quickly. They have two conceptual choices: restore stability to the current, heterogeneous zone; or opt for a smaller but stronger one. Neither option is easy, and both are very controversial. They involve substantial upfront costs and high likelihood of collateral damage and unintended consequences. Also, with implementation fraught with risks, they require an unsettling level of policy experimentation, innovation and responsiveness. Yet both options dominate the path currently pursued by Europe which, distressingly, involves a growing threat of an uncontrolled and disorderly fragmentation of the eurozone and the euro. Already, the hard-earned credibility of some key regional institutions has been exposed to excessive risk, including the European Central Bank, which is central to the longer-term well being of Europe. Most political visionaries would opt for the first approach — doing whatever it takes to maintain the current zone, and do so for as long as it takes. But there should be no doubts here. This is a very expensive proposition that involves widespread, multi-year cross-guarantees and subsidization. Yet it entails significant uncertainties, given that certain peripheral economies face not just a big debt crisis but also a deep-rooted growth crisis. Indeed, many economists would caution core European countries on such a big challenge. After all, the underlying problems go well beyond political disputes. They also involve difficult design and engineering challenges. Economists rightly point out that, under this first approach, the core economies could use their stronger balance sheet to assume the debt of the weak peripherals but, critically, there is little they can do to enable them to grow properly. With such considerable open-ended exposure, this is an expensive and risky path, both upfront and over time. This path should only be pursued if core countries have more than “assurances” that the weak peripheral economies are both able and willing to fundamentally change their economic governance, institutions and behavior. There must also be credible pre-commitment mechanisms. Unfortunately, these are very difficult to implement. Moreover, the social appetite for adjustment in some peripheral economies is understandably near exhaustion, complicated by the wrong perception that austerity is being “imposed” by “rich” neighbors. The alternative is for Europe to bite the bullet and opt for a smaller but stronger zone. Certain weak peripheral economies (Greece and, possibly, 1-2 others but, importantly, not Italy) would restructure their debt and take a sabbatical from the euro. In doing so, they would gain greater domestic policy flexibility to deal with both their debt and growth crises. Meanwhile, the remaining members of the zone would be able to proceed more rapidly towards a more complete and stronger economic union. This second path also involves significant costs and risks, especially given the high likelihood of upfront disruptions. Remember, there are no mechanisms for an orderly exit from the zone. Trade flows would be dislocated for a while. Also, it would become obvious that certain European banks face both capital shortfalls and asset quality problems. And, to add to the uncertainties, contagion winds would blow throughout the smaller zone. Yes, pursuing a smaller but stronger zone involves risks and costs, too. This is part of Europe’s unfortunate reality: At this stage, there are no easy and costless options to solve the region’s growing turmoil. Fortunately, this second approach has an important benefit, both in absolute terms and relative to other alternatives: it can put the zone on a firmer longer-term footing. Making this difficult choice would ensure that the underlying resilience and soundness of Europe, which are still considerable, are preserved and enhanced for many future generations. There is little time to waste. This post originally appeared in Handelsblatt.

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Apple Blocks Another Rival Tablet

September 5, 2011

SEOUL (Reuters) – Samsung Electronics Co has stopped promoting its new tablet computer at Europe’s biggest consumer electronics fair after a court-ordered sales injunction in Germany, the latest setback in its global patent battle with Apple Inc. A Dusseldorf court ordered the South Korean company to stop selling Galaxy Tab 7.7 on Friday when the annual IFA electronics show started in Berlin. The move follows an earlier ban on German sales of Samsung’s Galaxy Tab 10.1 by the court in late August until its final ruling on September 9. The Galaxy Tab 7.7 is the latest addition to Samsung’s range of Galaxy products. It was first unveiled at the show along with 5.3-inch Galaxy Note, which Samsung hopes to create a new product category with and fill the gap between smartphones and tablets. “The product is not on sale yet but we’ve decided to respect the court order,” Samsung spokesman James Chung said. Samsung and Apple have been locked in acrimonious battle over smartphones and tablets patents since April as Apple seeks to rein in the growth of Google’s Android phones by taking directly aim at the biggest Android vendor, Samsung. Apple has argued that Samsung had infringed on its patents and the Galaxy line of smartphones and tablets “slavishly” copied its design, look and feel. It is fighting legal battles in the United States as well as Europe, South Korea and Australia. The battle forced Samsung to delay its tablet sales in Australia twice. Samsung has counter-sued, arguing Apple infringed its wireless patents. The Galaxy Tab 7.7 is powered by a dual 1.2 GHz processor and uses a 7.7-inch super-bright active matrix organic light emitting diode (AMOLED) screen. (Reporting by Miyoung Kim; Editing by Lincoln Feast) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions

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German FDP calls delay in Greek talks blow to euro

September 3, 2011

BERLIN (Reuters) – The interruption of talks between Greece and international lenders on a new aid tranche is a blow to the stability of Europe’s currency, the deputy leader of Germany’s junior coalition partners said on Saturday. Christian Lindner, general secretary of the Free Democrats, (FDP) junior coalition partners in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center-right government, said Athens was endangering European solidarity. “The breakdown of talks between the Troika and Greece is a blow to the stability of the euro,” he said at a news conference in Berlin. Referring to Greece’s failure to meet deficit targets set in exchange for a second bailout package, Lindner said Athens was shirking responsibilities to which it had agreed. “This is not about non-binding statements of intent, but contractually secured reciprocity for the emergency loans,” he said. “We insist these agreements are observed.” Talks between Greece and the EU, IMF and ECB were put on hold on Friday after disagreement over why Athens has fallen behind schedule in cutting its budget deficit and what it must do to catch up. The unplanned early departure of senior inspectors from the three bodies showed tension between Athens and its lenders over reforms, as clouds gathered over the second bailout package aiming to pull the country out of a severe debt crisis. The pro-business FDP styles itself as a defender of the German taxpayer, a stance Lindner reiterated in his statement over Greece. “Taxpayers in Northern Europe and especially Germany cannot accept inability or reluctance. In the eyes of the FDP, Greece must reaffirm it will for stability and reform.” “Mediation or postponements are no longer acceptable for us. The heads of the IMF and euro countries should therefore travel to Athens immediately to obtain binding declarations toward the fulfillment of the agreed goals.” (Reporting by Brian Rohan)

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AT&T Gears Up For Rare Antitrust Fight With DOJ

September 1, 2011

SAN FRANCISCO — The Justice Department’s rejection of AT&T’s proposed purchase of T-Mobile USA will test new federal guidelines on challenging mergers and the companies’ resolve in forming the nation’s largest wireless carrier. A courtroom battle is likely and could wring out information that the companies would prefer to keep private. Still, AT&T Inc. has a big incentive to fight: If the deal is called off, the company has to pay a $3 billion breakup fee and surrender some of its unused spectrum for wireless communications. AT&T is promising to fight the Justice Department’s decision. The department filed a lawsuit Wednesday to block the $39 billion deal, saying it would reduce competition and lead to price increases for customers. If AT&T follows through on that, it could produce the biggest antitrust showdown since business software maker Oracle Corp. squared off with the federal government seven years ago. That dispute, triggered by the government’s decision to block Oracle’s proposed purchase of rival PeopleSoft Inc., exposed several well-kept corporate secrets and required Oracle CEO Larry Ellison to testify before a packed courtroom. In the end, Oracle pulled off something few companies have done in the past 30 years: It persuaded a federal judge that the Justice Department didn’t have grounds to block its PeopleSoft deal. Oracle closed its $11.1 billion takeover four months after getting the favorable court ruling. Usually, not even the most powerful companies bother to fight government regulators in an antitrust dispute. Google Inc., for example, backed off in 2008 when the Justice Department threatened to sue to block a proposed Internet search partnership with Yahoo Inc. Microsoft Corp., the world’s largest software maker, pulled out of a deal to buy Intuit Corp. in 1995 after the Justice Department objected. The Justice Department filed 138 antitrust cases in federal courts from 1999 to 2008 and lost just four of them, according to the latest breakdown from the agency. One reason that the Justice Department has such a good track record is because it rarely challenges a deal unless it’s very confident it can win, said Joseph Bauer, a University of Notre Dame law professor and antitrust expert. Knowing AT&T would probably go to court, the Justice Department may have wanted to signal that it intends to get tougher on corporate marriages between rivals in markets with few other competitors. A union between AT&T and T-Mobile USA would leave Verizon and Sprint as the only other major cellphone carriers in the U.S. T-Mobile, a subsidiary of German telecom company Deutsche Telekom AG, is currently the No. 4 wireless carrier, while AT&T is second. Combined, AT&T would be the largest. In a sign of its confidence, the Justice Department decided to strike down the deal even though it could have taken about three more months to study the pros and cons. The timing stunned AT&T, which said it didn’t get any advance warning. “It was an aggressive and impressive move by the DOJ to take the battle right at AT&T,” said Daniel Wall, a San Francisco attorney who represented Oracle in its 2004 fight to win the right to buy PeopleSoft. “It sent a statement that the DOJ intends to fight this one all the way to the finish line.” Wall said AT&T may have a tougher time proving its case than Oracle did against the Justice Department. In the PeopleSoft deal, Wall said, antitrust enforcers seemed to be manipulating the definition of the business software market. “This time, it looks to me that they have a pretty solid market definition,” Wall said. “They don’t appear to be playing games.” University of Iowa law professor Herbert Hovenkamp said the Justice Department is being guided by a set of new guidelines, issued late last year, which make it clearer when mergers should be challenged on antitrust grounds. “I don’t think they are overreaching here,” Hovenkamp said. “If there is a broader message here, it’s that the government intends to enforce these new guidelines.” Besides being forced to divulge potentially damaging information, AT&T will face other risks if it doesn’t settle with the Justice Department. Going to trial will take months, or even years, leaving the company in a legal limbo that could depress its stock price and cause customers and key employees to defect. There’s another risk to going to trial: as they try to prove their case, antitrust lawyers sometimes obtain confidential e-mails that contain embarrassing snippets and present other evidence that can make companies look bad. Those are some of the reasons why AT&T mayl try to reach some kind of settlement with the government. If AT&T persists, antitrust experts said that it’s better off going up against the Justice Department than the Federal Trade Commission, which also handles antitrust reviews. That’s mainly because lawsuits with the Justice Department are contested in federal courts. By contrast, the threshold for the FTC to block deals is generally lower, and the ensuing legal skirmishes occur in administrative law proceedings that drag on longer. “The merging parties usually have a better shot when they are going up against the DOJ than the FTC,” said D. Daniel Sokol, a University of Florida professor specializing in antitrust law.

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Europe Shares Suffer Worst Monthly Loss Since Lehman Brothers Collapse

August 31, 2011

LONDON (Dominic Lau) – European shares suffered their biggest monthly loss in August since Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008, with German stocks posting their worst drop in nine years, as worries over slowing growth and the euro zone debt crisis spooked investors. The sharp falls, which wiped more than $750 billion off share values, came in high volumes. Trading turnover in August, which is usually low with many fund managers and traders on holiday, was the highest in almost three years. The sell-off was sparked by an escalation in the euro zone sovereign debt crisis, fears the United Statescould be heading for a recession and the loss of the world’s biggest economy’s triple-A debt rating. In response, investors sought shelter in safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. and German government bonds, or even just cash. “This month’s performance has been very bad, on the back of a mix of fundamental elements coming in such a short span that the effect on the market was devastating,” Franklin Pichard, director at Barclays France, said. “Political cacophony on both sides of the Atlantic, credit downgrades, doubts about banks’ balance sheets, fears of a repeat of the credit crunch of 2008… coupled with a number of profit warnings. All this has prompted investors to cut their weighting on equities, in favor of cash,” he said. The latest Reuters monthly asset allocation poll showed cash holdings in Europe leapt to 10.4 percent in August from 6.8 percent last month, while asset managers sharply cut equity holdings. “Economic growth is slowing down, with scant hopes of regaining strength any time soon, as governments in developed countries push for budget austerity,” said Giordano Lombardo, Group chief investment officer at Pioneer Investments. “Most of Europe feels the heat of the sovereign debt crisis… We believe volatility will settle down somewhat, otherwise our asset allocation will cut risky assets.” The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index of leading European shares lost 11 percent this month, its biggest monthly percentage drop since October 2008 after the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers. The benchmark has fallen 14 percent so far in 2011, far outstripping a 2.7 percent drop in the U.S. S&P 500 index. UNDERPERFORMANCE “European stocks have been seriously underperforming U.S. shares this year, with a risk premium linked to the region’s debt trouble, but also as if a U.S. recession had been priced in here but not on Wall Street,” said Catherine Garrigues, senior equity portfolio manager at Allianz GI Investments Europe, which has around $178 billion under management. Germany’s DAX index, which outperformed other major European markets in the first seven months of the year, was down 19 percent in August, its worst monthly fall since September 2002, as investors reassessed the impact of slowing global growth on German exporters. That compared with an 11 percent fall in France’s CAC 40. Some dealers ascribed part of the underperformance of the German blue chip index to a ban on short selling of financial stocks introduced by France, Spain, Italy and Belgium on August 12. Investors use the DAX and DAX derivatives as proxies to bet on falls in the broader European market. However, expectations that the Federal Reserve may step in next month with another stimulus package to boost the U.S. economy have stabilized markets and may help stop the outflow from equities. September tends to be weakest month for equities, with an average monthly drop of 0.7 percent for theMSCI world index between 1971 and 2010. December, by contrast, has seen the biggest gains, with stocks rising 2.2 percent on average. (Additional reporting by Natsuko Waki and Luke Jeffs in London, Blaise Robinson in Paris,; graphics by Scott Barber and Vincent Flasseur; editing by Nigel Stephenson) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Who Bears The Burden Of A Broken Global Economy?

August 10, 2011

With Greece and Ireland in economic shreds, while Portugal, Spain, and perhaps even Italy head south, only one nation can save Europe from financial Armageddon: a highly reluctant Germany. The ironies—like the fact that bankers from Düsseldorf were the ultimate patsies in Wall Street’s con game—pile up quickly as Michael Lewis investigates German attitudes toward money, excrement, and the country’s Nazi past, all of which help explain its peculiar new status.

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BART To Get A Makeover From BMW

July 20, 2011

Does anyone know how BMW feels about interior carpeting? This is a serious question now that DesignworksUSA, a subsidiary of the German car manufacturer BMW, has won the contract to design the next generation of BART trains. In a press release , even BART admitted the union is a little odd: BART has worked for years to get folks out of their cars and onboard its trains. That’s why at first look, it might seem strange that BART is partnering with a subsidiary of one of the premier car companies in the world to create the Fleet of the Future, a new generation of train cars. BART currently has the oldest fleet of train cars currently in operation of any transit system in the county–most original trains from the when BART launched in 1972 are still in operation. “The rail system uses a broad gauge rather than the standard gauge of most rail in the U.S., so cars must be custom-designed,” CNET reported . The agency is in the process of conducting “Seat Labs,” where it solicits input from the public about what people would like to see in the new trains. One interesting finding from the sessions is that most riders would be willing to give up an inch or two of seat space in exchange for wider aisles. Data gathered from the labs will be folded into whatever concept the firm eventually settles on. DesignworksUSA specializes in sleek, modernist designs and has worked on everything from a private jet for Boeing to a tractor for John Deere . (For the latter, the company won a number of industry awards.) Most relevant for BART is the work the company did on the Deutsche Bahn: Innovation Train. It’s worth taking a look at these pictures of the company’s concept for the German train and applying it to BART. An investigation by the Bay Citizen earlier this year found the interiors of BART’s train cars to be teeming life. Disgusting, disgusting life: Fecal and skin-borne bacteria resistant to antibiotics were found in a seat on a train headed from Daly City to Dublin/Pleasanton. Further testing on the skin-borne bacteria showed characteristics of methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus, or MRSA, the drug-resistant bacterium that causes potentially lethal infections, although Franklin cautioned that the MRSA findings were preliminary. High concentrations of at least nine bacteria strains and several types of mold were found on the seat. Even after Franklin cleaned the cushion with an alcohol wipe, potentially harmful bacteria were found growing in the fabric. The new train cars are expected to go into service sometime in 2017.

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Europe will survive Greece’s crisis: German govt

June 27, 2011

Europe will survive Greece’s crisis: German govt

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High Stakes: Confidence Vote In Greece (LIVEBLOG, UPDATES)

June 21, 2011

Greece’s Parliament is expected to take a confidence vote on the country’s political leadership at around 5 p.m. EDT Tuesday. The vote will not only decide the fate of Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou; it will influence the fate of the European Union and the U.S. economic recovery . If Papandreou gets voted out of office, Greece will be significantly less likely to implement the austerity measures that European financial ministers are demanding by July 3. If Greece does not authorize the required budget cuts, it could fail to secure bailout funding from Europe and face default. A default by Greece has the potential to trigger a chain reaction of European bank failures and government defaults, which would pose a threat to American banks’ willingness to lend. It seems more likely that Greece will be able to force through budget cuts in time to receive new bailout funding from Europe if Papandreou is able to stay in office. His new financial minister recently has taken a harder line on the budget to demonstrate the country’s determination to meet Europe’s demands. Check back here for further updates on the situation in Greece.

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Toyota President Sees Full Production By November

June 4, 2011

(Reuters) – The president of Toyota Motors (7203.T) said on Saturday he expects the automaker to resume full production globally in November and its Japanese output is expected this month to recover to 90 percent of levels seen before a March earthquake. “We are restoring (production) at fast speeds despite ongoing aftershocks,” Akio Toyoda, the grandson of the company’s founder, told reporters during a visit to South Korea. “We expect our output to recover to normal from November … For Japan’s domestic production, we expect to resume 90 percent of our normal output this month,” he said. Toyota and its local rivals have been plagued by shortages of hundreds of components after a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami on March 11 damaged factories in Japan’s northeast. Production at Toyota is returning to pre-quake levels faster than the company anticipated, with output in June likely to reach90 percent of pre-quake levels, a company spokesman confirmed on Wednesday. That more optimistic outlook compares with a prediction last month for production to return to 70 percent of normal. The president said in April that a complete recovery was expected in November or December. Still, in 2011 overall production may be almost a million vehicles less than Toyota had planned to build at the beginning of the year. Lost output by the end of May was 900,000 cars. Because Toyota builds 38 percent of its cars in Japan compared with a smaller 25 percent at Nissan Motor Co Ltd (7201.T) and Honda Motor Co Ltd (7267.T) the impact at Japan’s biggest auto company has been greater. The president visited South Korea, a small market for the auto giant, to “encourage dealers,” a Toyota Korea representative said, at a time when the automaker is suffering from sales slump in the wake of the quake and a recall crisis. Toyota’s Lexus sales dived 51 percent in April in South Korea from a year ago, while other Toyota vehicle sales slid 41 percent, even as the imported vehicle market grew 14 percent led by vehicles from German carmakers, according to data by Korea Automobile Importers and Distributors Association. Last year, Toyota sold a combined 10,486 Lexus and other models in the South Korean market dominated by Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) and Kia Motors (000270.KS). A shortage of parts resulting from disrupted supply chains means it has lost ground in overseas markets. On June 2, Toyota said it sold only 38,500 cars in China during May, 35 percent less than a year ago. In the United States, its main foreign market, sales in May slumped 28 percent. In contrast, South Korean rivals Hyundai Motor and Kia Motors posted double-digit sales growth and a record-high combined market share last month in the key market, putting their combined U.S. sales almost on par with that of Toyota. (Additional reporting by Tim Kelly in TOKYO; Editing by Robert Birsel) Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Scaling 150-Feet For Wind Power

June 2, 2011

Chris Bley, the son of an engineer and a school psychologist, remembers what his life was like right after he graduated from college — he sat at his desk, stared out the window and waited for the weekend to come around. “I worked for a computer company,” Chris said. “We manufactured barcode readers.” Having grown up and attended school in California, Chris was always an avid mountain climber and environmentalist. Even while working a desk job, climbing remained an important part of his life. But during one climbing trip at Joshua Tree National Park in southeastern California, he met two East German best friends who had actually figured out a way to make their living climbing on ropes. “They scaled churches and other buildings, and made their money this way,” he said. These guys were also part of a “rope access” team who’d wrapped a German Parliament building, the Reichstag, in fabric, as part of an art project. Chris was intrigued, and in the early 2000s he visited Germany himself to see how it was done. He trained extensively with his friends, learning the ropes (sorry) and seeing them in action, before heading back home to California, where he came up with the idea of scaling wind turbines. “I remembered seeing them all start to pop up around me, and in Palm Springs. And I thought, this could be the perfect opportunity.” So he started attending wind power conferences and shows across the West Coast, getting his name out there, shaking hands, and meeting people. He learned as much as he could about the industry, and eventually companies began to take notice. Chris called his company, ” Rope Partner .” “Rope access can save these companies lots of money on cranes and lifts,” Chris said. “It saves them a lot in energy costs.” Today, Chris and the other team members, many of whom he “recruits” from a local California rock-climbing gym, scale heights of up to 150 feet in order to clean, inspect, or repair wind turbines. Some jobs are as far away as Canada and Mexico, and his climbers live all across the country. It’s kind of the ideal job, Chris says. His freelancers are able to work on a certain project for a few months and then let loose to climb recreationally on their own time. What started as a one-man operation has quickly expanded to a team of over fifty, and he has plans to expand to “offshore” turbines, where the wind is much more consistent. Have there been accidents? “Sure, a few pinched fingers, things like that, but nothing too bad,” Chris said. “We take all that very seriously.” Chris insists that once he clung to his plan and made it his primary goal, he was able to fully realize the future success of his business. “I was very confident with this idea,” he said. “I knew it was something that would last. And help the environment. Both of those things were very important to me.”

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EU Rushing To Complete Greece’s Second Bailout Package

May 30, 2011

BRUSSELS/ATHENS (Jan Strupczewzki and Harry Papachristou) – The European Union is working on a second bailout package for Greece in a race to release vital loans next month and avert the risk of the euro zone country defaulting, EU officials said on Monday. Greece’s conservative opposition meanwhile demanded lower taxes as a condition for reaching a political consensus with the Socialist government on further austerity measures, which Brussels says is needed to secure any further assistance. Moves to plug a looming funding gap for 2012 and 2013 were accelerated after the International Monetary Fund said last week it would withhold the next tranche of aid due on June 29 unless the EU guarantees to meet Athens’ funding needs for next year. Senior EU officials held unannounced emergency talks with the Greek government over the weekend, an EU source said. Greece took a 110 billion euros ($158 billion) rescue package from the EU and IMF last May but has since fallen short of its deficit reduction commitments, raising the risk of a default on its 327 billion euro debt — equivalent to 150 percent of its economic output. The tax cuts sought by conservative New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras could aggravate the revenue shortfall, but he argues they are essential to revive economic growth. EU officials said a new 65 billion euro package could involve a mixture of collateralized loans from the EU and IMF, and additional revenue measures, with unprecedented intrusive external supervision of Greece’s privatisation program. “It would require collateral for new loans and EU technical assistance — EU involvement in the privatisation process,” one senior EU official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Extra funding for Greece faces fierce political resistance from fiscal conservatives and nationalists in key north European creditor countries — Germany, the Netherlands and Finland — complicating EU governments’ task. Greek daily Kathimerini said finance ministers of the 17-nation single currency area may hold a special meeting next Monday on a new package. European Commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj dismissed the report as “unfounded rumours, once again.” The next scheduled meeting of euro zone finance ministers is on June 20 in Luxembourg, having been pushed back a week from its original date. It will be followed three days later by a summit of EU leaders to assess the 18-month-long debt crisis. MARKETS RATTLED Mass unemployment and wage and benefit cuts due to the EU/IMF austerity plan have triggered spontaneous youth protests in Greece as well as a series of one-day strikes by powerful trade unions. Weekend comments by an Irish minister that Dublin too may need a second rescue package may also fuel opposition to further bailouts among lawmakers in Berlin, the Hague and Helsinki. Transport Minister Leo Varadkar told The Sunday Times newspaper that Ireland was unlikely to be able to return to capital markets next year as foreseen in its EU/IMF program. “It would mean a second program (of emergency loans),” he was quoted as saying. Irish central bank governor Patrick Honohan acknowledged at a news conference on Monday that debt market conditions were worse now than when Ireland took an 85 billion euro bailout last November but said they would improve. Uncertainty over whether Greece will receive the next 12 billion euro aid tranche required to meet 13.4 billion euros in funding needs in July continued to rattle financial markets. The Greek 10-year bond spread over safe haven German Bunds rose by 20 basis points to 1,387. Two-year yields were up 58 bps to 26.23 percent. The European Central Bank maintained a drumbeat of pressure against any attempt by EU politicians to restructure Greece’s debt mountain, even by asking investors to accept a voluntary extension of bond maturities. ECB board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said in an interview published on Monday the idea that debt restructuring could be carried out in an orderly way was a “fairytale,” saying it was the equivalent of the death penalty. “If you look at financial markets, every time there is mention of a word like ‘restructuring’ or ‘soft restructuring’ they go crazy — which proves that this could not happen in an orderly way, in this environment at least,” Bini Smaghi told the Financial Times. He also warned against a debt ‘reprofiling’, or voluntary extension of Greek bond maturities, saying it would be hard to get investors to agree to such a deal without the use of force. Euro zone governments are actively studying options for changing the maturities on Greek debt, officials say, although German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble acknowledged in an interview last week that it was very high risk. “The Eurogroup is doing research for reprofiling — what can you do on reprofiling? Is it possible without a credit event?” Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees De Jager told reporters on Saturday in Cyprus. “It’s an investigation, and we have to wait for the outcome of it. EU officials contend that Greece could do much more to help itself by selling off a treasure trove of state assets. ECB executive board member Juergen Stark told Welt am Sonntag newspaper that Athens could raise as much as 300 billion euros from privatising state property. Greece currently aims to raise 50 billion euros from privatisations by 2015 to help stave off a fiscal meltdown, but the country lacks a proper land registry and ownership of many potentially lucrative assets is legally uncertain. Athens is setting up a sovereign wealth fund to pool real estate assets and state stakes in companies such as telecom company OTE, Post Savings Bank and ports. Top EU officials have asked Greece to step up privatisations urgently and suggested creating a trustee institution to help the process similar to the body that privatised East German firms after the fall of communism. (Additional reporting by Angeliki Koutantou and Ingrid Melander in Athens, Marius Zaharia in London, Luke Baker in Brussels; writing by Paul Taylor, editing by Mike Peacock) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Greece Missed Fiscal Targets Under Bailout

May 29, 2011

(Reuters) – Greece has missed all fiscal targets agreed under its bailout plan, a mission from an international inspection team found, putting further funding for Athens at risk, according to a German magazine. “The troika asserts in its report to be presented next week that Greece had missed all its agreed fiscal targets,” weekly Spiegel magazine reported in a prerelease. The International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank — known as the troika — currently have a team in Greece assessing how sustainable the country’s debts are. The mission will be holding meetings next week before an expected finalization of the report. “The deficit in the public budget was higher than expected,” the magazine said, referring to the report’s findings. “The reason is that the Greek government still spends more than agreed in the aid programme. On top of that tax income is still lower than demanded.” The IMF has already said it cannot release its part of a 12 billion euro aid tranche to Greece next month if fiscal conditions underpinning the bailout are not met and the European Commission’s top economic official was quoted as saying the EU was setting the same conditions. “We Europeans have the same conditions as the IMF,” EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn was quoted as saying in the same prerelease for Monday’s Spiegel magazine. “We will decide on the next tranche after the troika’s report. The situation is very serious,” Rehn added. At roughly 330 billion euros, or 150 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), Greece’s debt is so high that many economists believe the country will inevitably have to restructure eventually. The ailing euro zone state, which triggered the sovereign debt crisis in 2009, also needs to garner support from opposition parties for fiscal reforms before the European Union and International Monetary Fund free up more payments. EU officials have asked Athens to step up privatizations urgently and suggested setting up a trustee institution to help oversee the process, similar to the body that privatized East German companies after the fall of communism. Spiegel magazine also said the troika’s experts estimated Greece had assets worth 300 billion euros, which it could sell off to meet its targets. (Reporting by Annika Breidthardt; Editing by John Stonestreet) Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Robert Kuttner: Beware Greeks Bearing Banks

May 23, 2011

After every financial debacle or war, there is a huge political struggle over whether creditors and financial speculators get to stand in the way of an economic recovery. When the creditors win, ordinary people who had nothing to do with the crisis are typically the victims. Today, the entire political elite is in the austerity camp, and those who argue that creditors should take some losses so that the rest of the economy can grow are mostly ignored. This is the common theme to the issue of mortgage relief to spare American homeowners millions of foreclosures, the question of whether the US should sacrifice Medicare and Social Security on the altar of deficit reduction, and the punishment being visited upon small European economies such as Greece, Portugal and Ireland. (Though Dominique Strauss-Kahn was evidently a sexual predator, he was not a financial rapist when it came to vulnerable nations. He was a rare member of the ruling financial club who gave some attention to economic recovery over austerity.) Greece is the poster child for this dilemma, and the Greek story reveals the real villain of the piece — the big banks. In February 2010, it was revealed that Goldman Sachs had been complicit in allowing previous Greek governments to cook their books and hide the size of the Greek deficit by creating a special kind of currency swap that was really a disguised loan. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, Greece’s national debt is unsustainable, and only credits from the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund are keeping Greece from defaulting. The bankers want Greece to languish in debtor’s prison, cutting wages and social benefits, increasing taxes, and otherwise sandbagging its own economy in order to pay back creditors at 100 cents on the Euro. Greece, however, is now in a vicious circle: the more the Greeks practice the austerity demanded by the money markets and the European Central Bank, the more the Greek economy predictably slumps and the more that money markets lose confidence that Greece will ever recover enough to pay back its bondholders. In this crisis, bankers are culpable in three different and reinforcing respects. First, we have the case of Goldman’s complicity in helping the Greek previous government to get Greece in over its head. Secondly, the European Central Bank and the big German banks are opposed to a restructuring of the Greek debt — trading short term bonds for longer term securities with reduced interest and principal — because big banks are the major bondholders and resist taking any losses. Recently, a third concern came to light — our old nemesis, credit default swaps (CDS). These are the very same toxic securities that were so implicated in the 2007-2009 financial crash. CDS are a form of insurance against default of securities. But unlike, say, underwriters of life insurance or fire insurance, the issuers of swaps seldom have adequate reserves against losses because they assume that defaults will hardly ever occur. Rather, CDS have become a favorite vehicle for speculation by hedge funds and investment banks. According a Friday Wall Street Journal report from Brussels, even a partial a restructuring of the Greek government debt could trigger payouts of credit default swaps. A group of European finance ministers raised the possibility of a “soft” restructuring of the Greek debt, so as not to reward speculators who were betting on a Greek default, but officials of the European Central Bank threw a fit, warning that the ECB would pull the plug on funding for Greek banks if such a restructuring were discussed. From the view of the ECB, the sheer complexity of financial markets is now such that any form of restructuring that would benefit Greece could set off ripples that might destabilize the system, so the ECB is dead set against it. Better for the Greeks just to suffer. It’s clear that Greece can’t pay its debts. The practical question is whether an adjustment will be accompanied by more pain or less, and whether the financial sector will be permitted to keep bleeding Greece dry. There is an instructive historical parallel. When American banks found themselves in big trouble in the 1980s because several third world countries could not pay back their loans, Nicholas Brady, Bush I’s Treasury Secretary, came up with an ingenious plan. The debts would be stretched out, and the creditors would take a hit averaging about 30 percent. The banks were compelled to take their feet off the oxygen hoses of more than a dozen nations, and recovery of their real economies ensued. Worry about triggering payouts of credit default swaps was not an obstacle because, mercifully, credit default swaps had not been invented yet. The more we learn about these toxic securities and their abuse, the more wisdom we see in Paul Volcker’s comment that the last useful innovation created by the financial industry was the ATM machine. The stakes are somehow clearer after wars than after financial busts. Bonds issued by defeated countries are worthless, so debts do not sandbag recoveries. Victorious countries typically restructure their own war debt, so that it doesn’t cripple the postwar economy. (America’s first treasury secretary, Alexander Hamilton, was a hero for devising a plan for the new federal government to assume the war debts.) We also remember the fatal lesson of the First World War, where the British and French tried to squeeze defeated Germany dry to pay off their own war debts — and destroyed Germany’s economy, thus creating grievances that led to World War II. After the second war, we didn’t make the same mistake twice. But somehow, it’s harder to win general support for debt relief after a financial collapse because details are more murky and the banks are so bloody powerful. The fact is that throughout modern history, governments have defaulted on debts dozens of times. It’s more important for real economies to realize their productive potential than for bankers to get their pound of flesh. The choice doesn’t have to be default or debtor’s prison. A middle ground is debt restructuring of the sort being proposed for Greece, but the banks and their toadies in government are too greedy and short sighted to appreciate it. In the context of today’s debt politics, Nick Brady, who faithfully served George H.W. Bush, is a dangerous radical. Robert Kuttner is co-editor of The American Prospect and a senior fellow at Demos. His latest book is A Presidency in Peril .

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Nation Watches As LA Sues Deutsche Bank

May 22, 2011

LOS ANGELES — A dead dog lies among the knee-high weeds, a sign to Guillermo Elenes that the burned out, boarded up house is being used as a dump. Inside, soiled diapers, fast-food trash and the strewn beer and vodka bottles indicate squatters have been living there. The dumping ground-crash pad serves as a squalid symbol of how the foreclosure crisis is riddling communities with blight because no one wants to shoulder the responsibility of maintaining foreclosed homes. “There’s one on every block,” said Elenes, a community organizer with the Alliance of Californians for Community Empowerment in Watts, a low-income South Los Angeles neighborhood pockmarked with foreclosed homes. “All we want is for the banks to step up and be good citizens.” Communities across the nation have made little progress in getting banks to maintain foreclosed properties, and as the ongoing crisis matures and bank-owned homes fall into advanced stages of disrepair, cities and residents are getting desperate. In a keenly watched move this month, Los Angeles forged a new strategy – it sued one of the world’s major financial institutions, Deutsche Bank, to force it to take care of 166 properties, both vacant and renter-occupied, charging the blue-chip German giant has turned into the city’s largest slumlord. “The buck stops with the owner of record. We’re saying, `You are an owner like any other owner,’” said Julia Figueira-McDonough, deputy city attorney. Not according to Deutsche or other banks. They say they aren’t really the owners, despite the fact that their name appears on the property title. They also say they are not responsible for maintenance. Representatives of Deutsche, as well as U.S. Bank, BNY Mellon and HSBC – three other major lenders that Los Angeles is investigating with an eye to suing, all said that loan servicers are responsible for property upkeep, as well as tasks such as sending default notices, modifying loans, selling homes, and collecting rent and mortgage payments. “We’re there in name only,” said Teri Charest, spokeswoman for U.S. Bank. “We’re trustees. We have a very limited role.” The real owners, the banks say, are the holders of the mortgage-backed securities – financial instruments comprising a pool of mortgage loans that are held in a trust and sold. The banks maintain they are simply distributors of the proceeds from the securities – the payments of a homeowner’s loan principal and interest – to the investors. Although the bank contracts the loan servicer, the bank’s role does not include pressing servicers to properly maintain the trust’s assets on behalf of its beneficiaries, bank representatives said. U.S. Bank, however, has sent notices to loan servicers that they must maintain properties in accordance with applicable laws, a statement said. Loan servicers, however, usually have a contract loophole that allows them an easy out from the maintenance burden. Typically, they’re only required to spend money on upkeep if they believe the outlay is recoverable, according to Laurence Platt, a Washington D.C. lawyer who has represented banks in foreclosure-related litigation. “Who pays for a pig in a poke?” he said. “This is a collateral issue of the whole foreclosure crisis.” Calls to two of the country’s largest loan servicers – Ocwen Financial Services of West Palm Beach, Fla., and Statebridge Co. of Denver, Colo. – were not returned. Houston-based Litton Loan Servicing declined to answer questions from The Associated Press. Many servicers are also owned by Wall Streeters such as Wells Fargo. The issue of loan servicers is an attempt to dodge responsibility, Figueira-McDonough said, because the banks are the owners of record, plus have a fiduciary duty to their trust beneficiaries. Officials in Los Angeles and other cities say they’re infuriated with the back-and-forth finger-pointing while an epidemic of eyesores is devastating neighborhoods. “We’re left holding the bag. Someone has got to be held accountable,” said Robert Triozzi, law director for the city of Cleveland, which unsuccessfully sued Deutsche Bank over different foreclosure-related issues three years ago. “Not only have these institutions caused this mess, they have continued to perpetuate it.” Silvia Lobato of South Los Angeles just wants repairs to the one-bedroom apartment she’s been renting for the past 14 years – named as one of the neglected Deutsche Bank properties in the city’s lawsuit. The kitchen sink plumbing has a leak that has caused the unit to rot and breed worms. The bathroom ceiling is covered with mildew. A city inspector told her the gas connection to the water heater is dangerous. Mice scramble in the walls. Everything was fine until the owner lost the duplex two years ago, said Lobato, who lives in the apartment with her three kids and another mother and her three children. Since then, she’s been unable to get the landlord to make repairs. “I call and call. They say they don’t have the money. I pay $680 a month in rent,” she said. “I worry about the kids in these conditions.” Governments have tried various tactics. Los Angeles, like many cities, last year enacted an ordinance mandating that banks register defaulting properties and pay a $155 fee so the city can track the property and collect funds for expenses. But despite the penalty of $100,000 fines for non-registration, the ordinance hasn’t worked because it relies on banks to self-report the properties. “There’s been minimal compliance,” said Figueira-McDonough. Other cities, including Fort Lauderdale, Fla., have tried to crack down by declaring unkempt homes “public nuisances,” and charging owners, including banks, with the cost of boarding up windows and mowing lawns. In cases where no owner can be found or bills are unpaid, a lien is placed on the property. Residents, incensed about homes on their blocks turning into drug dens, gang hangouts and vermin nests, are galvanizing. Watts resident Lynn Mottley drives around her neighborhood looking for telltale signs of foreclosure, such as chain link fences with no trespassing signs, jotting down the addresses in a notebook she keeps in her car. Mottley, an activist with the Alliance of Californians for Community Empowerment and the Home Defenders League, reports the addresses to the city and to lahoodwinked.com, an activist website that encourages residents to list foreclosed properties so the city can pursue owners for upkeep. Her notebook keeps filling up. “Wow, there’s another one,” she said, driving by a ramshackle bungalow with broken windows and an overgrown, junk filled yard. “Who wants to live next to this? Something has to be done.”

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French See Dominique Strauss-Kahn As Victim Of Plot

May 22, 2011

PARIS — Forget what the New York prosecutor says about Dominique Strauss-Kahn. The doubters in France are legion and the country is abuzz with conspiracy theories. Did Strauss-Kahn bring on his own ruin at a luxury Manhattan hotel? Or did his political enemies in France set him up in a sinister plot to undo the known womanizer who was a top contender to become France’s next president? From the moment that Strauss-Kahn’s arrest for the alleged sexual assault of a chambermaid flashed around the world, doubts emerged in France. A week later, with evidence still under wraps and the accused and the accuser silent, speculation abounds. A poll Thursday suggested that a majority of French, 57 percent, think Strauss-Kahn was the victim of a plot. In a country where low blows pepper the political culture, where people think politicians will do almost anything to keep their perks and where President Nicolas Sarkozy’s approval ratings are sinking relentlessly, a plot against the increasingly powerful IMF chief seems plausible to many. “The trap, you cannot not think of it,” Cooperation Minister Henri de Raincourt conceded on Radio France International a day after the arrest. “But we must let justice follow its course without any prior assumptions.” Strauss-Kahn himself is reported to have voiced fears of a setup involving an alleged rape victim last month with a journalist. And then there are the precedents. Former conservative Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin is now in a slander trial that grew out of accusations he had wind of a dirty tricks campaign against Sarkozy in 2004 and failed to stop it. Sarkozy has said he believes the scheme was meant to upend his 2007 presidential bid. Doubts are still raised over the 1994 suicide, in his office at the presidential Elysee Palace, of the man considered former Socialist President Francois Mitterrand’s closest counselor, Francois de Grossouvre. And there are those who wonder, nearly two decades later, who really aimed the gun in the 1993 suicide of former Prime Minister Pierre Beregovoy. Strauss-Kahn’s fall from grace on May 14 was brutal. It came minutes before his trans-Atlantic flight for a meeting, as chief of the International Monetary Fund, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The 62-year-old Socialist who led popularity polls for next year’s presidential race insists he is innocent and has resigned from his job at the IMF to fight the charges. He was indicted by a grand jury on charges including criminal sexual abuse and attempted rape for allegedly attacking a 32-year-old maid, a West African immigrant, in his suite at the Sofitel. Strauss-Kahn is now under house arrest in Manhattan, watched by armed guards and tracked with an electronic bracelet, as he prepares his defense. The French press and Internet forums are flooded with questions from those who suspect a setup or are true believers in his innocence. _ Why would he call the hotel from the airport to recover a forgotten cell phone if he was guilty? _ Why not simply arrange for a female companion rather than assault a maid? _ Why would a maid enter Strauss-Kahn’s presidential suite unaccompanied? “At this stage of the investigation, the hypothesis of a manipulation cannot be swept aside,” sociologist Michele Fize wrote in Sunday’s Le Monde newspaper. Le Monde also quoted the director general of the top French firm handling housekeeping in luxury hotels as saying a maid could be fired for entering an occupied room alone. Luxury hotel maids know the protocol: knock, wait, announce oneself, knock again, open the door slightly, said Marie-Francoise Litaudon of the Francaise de Service Group. Socialist allies thought they saw bids to damage Strauss-Kahn’s image weeks before the arrest, when paparazzi arrived in April to photograph him getting into a flashy Porsche. It wasn’t his car, it belonged to a friend, but that elitist image won’t sit well with Socialist voters. That was followed by an allegation in the France-Soir newspaper that Strauss-Kahn wore $35,000 suits. “There is a campaign against the personality of Dominique Strauss-Kahn,” Socialist lawmaker Jean-Marie Le Guen told Europe-1 radio only hours before the Frenchman was arrested. A journalist for the left-leaning newspaper Liberation said the politician himself foresaw dirty tricks in the upcoming presidential campaign and confided in an off-the-record meeting April 28 the three obstacles he faced: “money, women and my Jewishness.” “Yes, I love women … So what?” journalist Antoine Guiral quoted him as saying. Strauss-Kahn even predicted one possible line of attack against him – “a woman raped in a parking lot who has been promised 500,000 or a million euros to invent such a story,” Guiral quoted him as saying. A poll by the CSA firm showed that 57 percent of 1,007 adults questioned at their homes believed Strauss-Kahn was “certainly” or “probably” the victim of a plot, compared to 32 who felt this was “certainly” or “probably” not true. Those polled May 16 were of all levels of education, it said. No margin of error was provided but it would be plus or minus 3 percentage points for a poll of that size. Bruno Cautres, an analyst at CEVIPOF, a think tank of the prestigious school Science Po where Strauss-Kahn taught for years, says the enormity of the affair and the wave of “this is impossible” remarks by Socialist Party figures may have colored national opinion in favor of a plot theory. “Whatever the country, there will always be those who believe in a plot (to explain) a dramatic phenomenon,” he said. “That is a natural tendency because this phenomenon seems unexplainable and we seek explanations.” Strauss-Kahn’s reputation as a successful womanizer makes an alleged sexual assault even less credible because he had ample access to willing women, doubters say. The French barely shrugged when the IMF investigated Strauss-Kahn for a 2008 affair with an employee then absolved him of wrongdoing. “We have a political culture by which we will pardon a lot of politicians for behavior in private life and not necessarily make the equation that bad behavior in private life equals bad behavior in political life,” said Cautres. Cautres himself dismissed the notion of a plot. “Who would organize it … given the risk of a leak, of a spectacular revelation?” he asked. However, Strauss-Kahn’s defense team will surely be looking for that “banana peel” that centrist politician Dominique Paille suggested may have been strategically dropped. What about that tweet on Strauss-Kahn that set off a frenzy in France from a Science Po masters student who belonged to the youth wing of Sarkozy’s conservative UMP party? “A pal in the United States just let me know that DSK was arrested by police in New York an hour ago,” Jonathan Pinet tweeted at 22:59 p.m. Paris time (2059 GMT, 4:59 p.m. EDT) on May 14. The timing would be shortly after Strauss-Kahn was escorted off on an Air France plane in New York. Rejecting any conspiracy ties, Pinet later explained his information came in a Facebook chat with a friend who has another friend who works at the Sofitel in New York – and who likely mistook the happenings there hours earlier for the actual arrest.

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Spain Protests Rock Nation, Tens Of Thousands Fill The Cities Over Joblessness

May 21, 2011

By Tracy Rucinski and Fiona Ortiz MADRID – Tens of thousands of Spaniards angry over joblessness protested for a sixth day on Friday in cities all over the country, and the government looked unlikely to enforce a ban on the demonstrations, fearing clashes. Dubbed “los indignados” (the indignant), tens of thousands of protesters have filled the main squares of Spain’s cities for six days, in a wave of outrage over economic stagnation and government austerity marking a shift after years of patience. The electoral board ruled on Thursday that protests would be illegal on Saturday, the eve of elections when Spaniards will choose 8,116 city councils and 13 out of 17 regional governments. But Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, who has failed to contain the highest unemployment in the European Union, at 21.3 percent, said he may not enforce the ban. “I have a great respect for the people protesting, which they are doing in a peaceful manner, and I understand it is driven by economic crisis and young people’s hopes for employment,” Zapatero said during a radio interview. He said the Justice Ministry was reviewing the electoral board’s ruling to determine whether it should stand. PROTESTERS WILL STAY “We are not going to budge from here,” said a 44-year-old unemployed man who declined to give his name, during an assembly at Puerta del Sol in central Madrid, where protesters reached an informal consensus to stay in the square despite the ban. The man was among hundreds who have camped out all week at Puerta del Sol. His wife and daughter join him every day and the crowd swells to thousands every evening. “Our next move is to spread this to the rest of Europe,” he said. Many protesters told Reuters that they are scared the police will crack down, but analysts said police action against the protesters would be a disaster for the Socialists. The protesters have called on Spaniards not to vote for the two main parties, the Socialists or the center-right opposition Popular Party. Spain has struggled to emerge from a recession, and the collapse of the construction sector and a slump in consumer spending have hit the young particularly hard — 45 percent of 18- to 25-year-olds are unemployed. “They can’t kick us out. The politicians won’t allow it, it’ll make them look bad right before the voting,” said Virginia Braojos, 32, a logistics technician who has come with three friends to the protests every night this week. NOT A GAME CHANGER The protests have drawn huge media attention, but will not change the outcome of Sunday’s elections, when the ruling Socialist party is expected to suffer heavy losses over its handling of the economic crisis, a prominent pollster said. However, the symbolic impact of the protests is huge and will make things even tougher than they already are for the increasingly lame-duck Zapatero, said Jose Juan Toharia, president of Metroscopia pollsters. “There will be an authentic cataclysm for the Socialists, who are going to head into general elections next year without a single stronghold,” Toharia said. The next general election is due in March, though some analysts say a Socialist rout could lead to an early election. The protest movement has captured the mood of many Spaniards who have been out of work for months and face a bleak future as the economy is not yet growing robustly enough to create jobs. While most protesters are young, organizing themselves through Twitter and social media, middle-aged and older people joined the crowds on Friday, frustrated with stagnation. STICKING TO DEFICIT COMMITMENT The risk premium on Spanish debt, as measured by the difference between yields on Spanish and benchmark German bonds, rose on Friday due to concerns that following the elections, new regional leaders will uncover budget shortfalls. Budget trouble in the regions would rekindle concerns about a fiscal crisis in Spain. Spain has been under intense market scrutiny since Greece, Ireland and Portugal were forced to accept EU/IMF bailouts. It is widely accepted that a bailout for Spain, the euro zone’s fourth largest economy, would stretch the European Union’s resources and political will to breaking point. The Spain/Bund spread traded at its widest since mid-January at around 239 basis points. Zapatero, who slashed government spending this year, promised there would not be a new round of spending cutbacks following the elections, but stressed Spain’s obligation to international markets to stick to its plan to cut the deficit. “I can guarantee there will be no more spending cuts after the May 22 elections (but) we are committed to the budget target. I insist we will meet this obligation because, if we don’t, markets and investors won’t finance us, and that would make things worse.” (Additional reporting by Paul Day; editing by Mark Heinrich) Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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What Arrest Of IMF’s Head Means For Greece’s Bailout

May 15, 2011

BERLIN — The arrest of IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn complicates a key European meeting on whether to give Greece billions more in aid – but experts insisted one man’s troubles won’t keep the 17 eurozone nations from trying to contain a debt crisis that threatens them all. Eurozone financial leaders are to discuss Greece’s deteriorating economy Monday at a Brussels meeting where experts will brief them on the situation in Athens. Key questions include what conditions to put on more help to the debt-strapped nation, with European leaders unhappy at what they see as limited Greek efforts to raise money by selling government property. Strauss-Kahn was arrested Sunday in New York on suspicion of sexual assault on a hotel maid. Despite the arrest, the International Monetary Fund said in a statement it remains “fully functioning and operational.” The IMF Executive Board convened an informal session Sunday and made Strauss-Kahn’s deputy, John Lipsky, acting managing director while its chief was unavailable. The Washington, D.C.-based lending body also sent Nemat Shafik, a deputy managing director who oversees IMF work in several EU countries, to Monday’s eurozone meeting to replace Strauss-Kahn. Strauss-Kahn had to cancel his Sunday meeting with Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin, where the German public is deeply skeptical about putting up any more money for Greece. Germany, as Europe’s largest economy, provided a large chunk of the euro110 billion ($157 billion) bailout for Greece from the European Union and the IMF last year. Greek government spokesman Giorgos Petalotis insisted the arrest would not affect his nation’s efforts to resolve its financial woes. “The Greek government deals with institutions, not individuals, and continues unimpeded to implement the program that will get it out of the crisis,” Petalotis said. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble struck a similar tone, saying the eurozone meeting would go ahead as planned. And European politicians had already gotten used to the idea that Strauss-Kahn may leave his post soon to run for president of France next year. Yet others said Strauss-Kahn’s immediate departure from the financial stage adds additional uncertainty to the already difficult situation in Europe. “The leadership vacuum at the IMF comes at a highly inopportune time for Europe, which is teetering on the brink of a full-blown debt crisis,” said Eswar Prasad, a professor of international economics at Cornell University and a former IMF official. Many investors believe that Greece’s financial troubles are so overwhelming that a Greek default or a restructuring that would give creditors less than the full value of their bonds is inevitable. But that would be a serious blow to the euro, and eurozone governments and the European Central Bank appear determined to prevent it. Merkel has stressed that her government will need clear conditions for any new Greek loans before it will back more help. But Schaeuble has conceded that if the experts’ full report in June shows that Greece can’t pay its debts, something more will have to be done. The IMF put up euro30 billion ($43 billion) of that Greek loan and also supplies expertise in assessing whether Greece and other countries that get emergency loans are living up to the conditions attached to them. A euro78 billion ($111 billion) bailout for Portugal was also on the agenda for Monday’s meeting in Brussels, as is Ireland’s progress in dealing with the financial morass that led to its own EU-IMF bailout. With the terms of the Portuguese bailout largely decided, EU finance ministers are expected to signal approval of that deal. Although eurozone ministers were talking about Greece, a new bailout announcement was not planned for Monday. Instead, investors expected a general statement of support, followed by days or weeks of more haggling. Marco Valli, chief eurozone economist at UniCredit, said Greece’s troubles were separate from those of Strauss-Kahn, and he expected a decision on more help for Greece in the near future. “There is no way that just because the IMF’s chief gets into personal trouble that Greece would be left alone,” Valli said. “Maybe it can have some impact on timing, but our view is that this is not going to have a meaningful impact on the bottom line, which is that Greece would get a second bailout package.” Other analysts agreed that the IMF will simply navigate through the upcoming difficulties. “The IMF is not a one-trick pony,” David Buik at BGC Partners in London. “European markets may be damaged by this news for a few hours but there is plenty of depth to the IMF.” ___ AP Business Writer Gabriele Steinhauser contributed from Brussels and Demetris Nellas from Athens, Chris Rugaber in Washington D.C.

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Video: Buentemeyer Says Brazil, China Driving Kolbus Sales

May 13, 2011

May 13 (Bloomberg) — Kai Buentemeyer, chief executive officer of Kolbus GmbH & Co., discusses the company’s business outlook. Buentemeyer, speaking with David Tweed on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move,” also talks about the German economy and European Central Bank monetary policy.

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Video: Exports Boost Germany’s Economy, Retail Sales Struggle

May 13, 2011

May 13 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s David Tweed reports from Berlin on the contribution to the German economy of small and medium-sized companies such as Burmester Audiosysteme GmbH.

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Euro Zone grows 0.8% in the first quarter, boosted by the superb German and French expansion

May 13, 2011

Euro Zone grows 0.8% in the first quarter, boosted by the superb German and French expansion

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Breaking Up With T-Mobile May Cost AT&T $6 Billion

May 12, 2011

By Nadia Damouni and Paritosh Bansal NEW YORK (Reuters) – AT&T Inc (T.N) has promised to give Deutsche Telekom (DTEGn.DE) $6 billion in assets, services and cash as a break-up fee if U.S. regulators reject its proposed $39 billion purchase of the German company’s T-Mobile USA, according to sources familiar with the matter. The $6 billion would include $3 billion of cash, as AT&T has previously disclosed, and about $2 billion worth of spectrum and a roaming agreement valued at $1 billion, according two sources who asked not to be named as those details were not public. AT&T declined comment for the story. While the cash agreement is already unusually high at 7.7 percent of the total deal price, the addition of assets and services of a similar value would mean that the companies are breaking global records with a 15.4 percent break-up fee, according to Thomson Reuters Data. The high fee underscores AT&T’s confidence that it can convince regulators to approve the deal, which is already being heavily criticized by many consumers and AT&T rivals including No. 3 U.S. mobile service Sprint Nextel (S.N). The acquisition of T-Mobile USA, ranked No. 4, would enable AT&T, currently the No. 2 U.S. mobile service, to leapfrog the leader of the U.S. market, Verizon Wireless, a venture of Verizon Communications (VZ.N) and Vodafone Group Plc (VOD.L). The deal needs approval from the U.S. telecommunications regulator, the Federal Communications Commission, and the Department of Justice, which examines antitrust issues around mergers. AT&T’s chief executive, Randall Stephenson, had to defend the deal at a hearing held by skeptical lawmakers in Capitol Hill on Wednesday. Based on valuations in past spectrum sales, $2 billion would pay for roughly 10 megahertz of spectrum, according to Fabricio Martinez, a UK-based consultant from Aircom International. This is the minimum necessarily to offer high-speed wireless services based on the emerging technology Long Term Evolution (LTE), according to analyst estimates. Martinez estimated that 10 megahertz would double T-Mobile USA’s current available spectrum for high-speed services. But he noted that “ideally a carrier would want 20 megahertz,” for LTE services to perform well. T-Mobile USA would be able to increase its current data speeds by only once and a half times using 10 megahertz for LTE, according to Martinez, who said that if it had 20 megahertz it could increase data speeds by four times. AT&T shares were up 37 cents, or 1 percent, at $31.75 in afternoon trade on the New York Stock Exchange. (Additional reporting by Sinead Carew; Editing by Steve Orlofsky) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions WATCH:

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Google Reportedly Plans Large Office Development in Mountain View, CA

May 9, 2011

Google Inc. has reportedly agreed to pay the city of Mountain View, CA $30 million to lease nearly 9.5 acres near Shoreline Boulevard, where the Internet giant plans to build an office project totaling up to 600,000 square feet. With the Mountain View based company about to embark on a hiring spree, it has hired Ingenhoven Architects, a German firm that specializes in sustainable architecture, according to the San Jose Mercury News. According to…

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FOREX: Markets to Look Past German Jobs Report, Focus on US GDP

April 28, 2011

FOREX: Markets to Look Past German Jobs Report, Focus on US GDP

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A Year Later, Greece Still Struggles

April 23, 2011

ATHENS, Greece — It’s an anniversary few are celebrating. A year ago Saturday, with its faltering economy days away from bankruptcy, Greece ended months of speculation and requested bailout loans. Prime Minister George Papandreou chose the remote island of Kastelorizo, and its tranquil seaside backdrop, to announce the “urgent national need to formally ask our partners to mobilize the support mechanism.” International solidarity, he said in a televised address, would “send a strong signal to markets that the European Union is not to be toyed with, and it will protect our common interests and our common currency.” Twelve months on, there’s little indication that that signal has been received. Greek bonds have been axed to junk status by the three major ratings agencies. And sky-high borrowing costs have roughly doubled, along with the price of insuring debt. Greece would currently have to pay out 15-percent interest on a 10-year bond, compared with the German benchmark of 3.27 percent. At least 160,000 more people have lost their jobs since April 23, 2010, with government austerity accelerating layoffs and business failures. And the national debt is forecast to exceed the emergency level of 150 percent of gross domestic product in 2011. “At the moment we have a very, very difficult situation which requires a rapid response and tough measures,” economic analyst Vangelis Agapitos said. “Of course the markets also realize that there is political fatigue and political cowardice to fully take the tough measures that are necessary.” Despite daily government denials, 47 percent of Greeks now believe the country will have to restructure its debt, while just 24 percent think it won’t be necessary, according to an opinion poll due to be published Sunday. The survey by the Alco research company for the weekly Proto Thema newspaper used data from 1,000 people interviewed April 15-19. No margin of error was quoted but it would normally be around 3 percentage points for a survey of that size. Support for Papandreou’s Socialists has sunk from 34.7 percent to 21.5 percent in the past 15 months, the poll found, though he still maintains a slim lead over rival conservatives. After Papandreou’s call for help from Kastelorizo, a rescue deal was put together in nine days, just ahead of a critical refinancing deadline. Eurozone countries and the International Monetary Fund agreed to lend Greece euro110 billion – equivalent to nearly half the country’s annual output – through 2013. In return for the bailout loans, Papandreou’s Socialist government slashed euro14 billion off the budget deficit in 2010 using salary and pension cuts and a raft of unpopular measures aimed at reducing waste in the public sector and protective market rules. His government has promised debt inspectors that it will start generating a primary surplus in 2012, but fiscal targets have begun slipping this year due to the ongoing recession. And the sharp rise in public discontent is in growing contrast to calls by Greece’s central bank and analysts for bolder cost-cutting measures. “The (national) debt is 150 percent of GDP and rising. Had it been half that amount, maybe these (austerity) measures would suffice,” Agapitos said. “The number of measures is unprecedented. So in a way, Greece is proving that the effort is there. However, the expectations are much higher and keep rising, because of the mess that Greece is in.” Papandreou is unlikely to get much respite this Easter, with school and hospital closures planned this year and a massive privatization program prompting a general strike on May 11. Many of his countrymen, however, are looking forward to a break from the national gloom this holiday weekend. “I just can’t watch the news anymore – it’s so depressing,” said window cleaner Stratis Dervendlis, who is planning a series of day-trips in and around Athens on his days off. “The bad news is constant. It’s like reminding someone in hospital that they’re sick all the time. Instead, they should be giving us courage and telling us how we’re going to get better.” ___ AP writer Elena Becatoros contributed.

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FOREX: Euro May Trim Gains as German Business Confidence Flounders

April 21, 2011

FOREX: Euro May Trim Gains as German Business Confidence Flounders

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Gemma Godfrey: Libya — Oil, Water, Gold Are the Real Issues

April 15, 2011

The oil price has skyrocketed over the past few months. The finger has been pointed at the troubles in Libya and claims of supply disruptions have dominated the press. However, are these claims grounded in fact or are we watching yet another sentiment driven bubble? What are the issues we should be aware of and how should we best invest in the face of such turmoil? Expectations are often more damaging than reality Libya’s contribution to global oil production is in stark contrast to the column inches it has been awarded in the press. As quoted by the National Journal, the country produces around 2% of the world’s oil. OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) has claimed that they have managed to “accommodate most of the shortfall” and instead attribute the rise in the oil price to fears of a shortage rather than any genuine supply issues . Oil reached a 2.5 year high last Friday . This is against a flattish demand side dynamic. Paris-based International Energy Agency and the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration left fuel demand growth for this year unchanged and OPEC only raised their forecast by a relatively small amount ( to 87.9m b/d from 87.8m b/d ) . EU Sanction: A further boost for the oil bulls On Tuesday, the EU extended sanctions against Libya to include energy companies, freezing assets in an attempt to force leader Muammar Gaddafi to relinquish power. Phrased another way, by the German Foreign Minister, this is a ” de facto embargo on oil and gas ” . Approximately 85% of exports are for delivery to Europe and importers will now have the task of finding potentially more distant and/or expensive alternative sources. The pent-up downside risk Nevertheless, many are not paying attention to the downside risk to the oil price as we move forward. Libya has Africa’s largest proven oil reserves but 75% of the country’s petrol needs are met with imports because of limited refinery capacity . Any improvement on this front, if a regime change is eventually secured, could therefore significantly reduce imports and boost global supplies. Is water the next oil? In addition to oil reserves, one asset belonging to the Libyan government which is rarely mentioned is an ability to bring water to the desert. With the largest and most expensive irrigation project in history, the $33bn GMMR (Great Man-Made River) project, Libya is able to provide 70% of the population with water for drinking and irrigation . The United Nations estimates that by 2050 more than two billion people in 48 countries will lack sufficient water , making this an enviable asset indeed . How can the US pay for the Libya intervention? It is interesting to note, with all the claims being made that the intervention is oil motivated that, Libya has another form of ‘liquidity’. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the country’s central bank has nearly 144 tonnes of gold in its vaults … How to best invest: Retain context The tide is starting to turn, Goldman Sachs has called the top for commodities in the near-term and oil fell by 4.5% on Monday and Tuesday alone (Source Bloomberg) . With this amount of volatility, short term noise can sometimes overwhelm. For a long term investor, looking for steady and stable returns, an ability to cut through the sentiment (whilst acknowledging it’s importance in driving returns in the shorter term) is valuable. Often many factors are at play and it will ‘pay dividends’ to be well-informed as they become wider known and priced in by the markets. Knowledge may be king but preparation will come up trumps .

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World Banks Face $3.6 Trillion "Wall Of Maturing Debt," IMF Warns

April 13, 2011

WASHINGTON (By Emily Kaiser) – The world’s banks face a $3.6 trillion “wall of maturing debt” in the next two years and must compete with debt-laden governments to secure financing, the IMF warned on Wednesday. Many European banks need bigger capital cushions to restore market confidence and assure they can borrow, and some weak players will need to be closed, the International Monetary Fund said in its Global Financial Stability Report. The debt rollover requirements are most acute for Irish and German banks, with as much as half of their outstanding debt coming due over the next two years, the fund said. “These bank funding needs coincide with higher sovereign refinancing requirements, heightening competition for scarce funding resources,” the IMF said. Overall, the IMF said global financial stability has improved over the past six months. The most pressing challenges in the coming months will be funding of banks and sovereigns, particularly in vulnerable euro area countries, it said. The IMF and European Union bailed out Greece and Ireland, and are in talks with Portugal on a lending program as sovereign borrowing costs surge. Many investors have questioned whether Spain can avoid a similar fate, but the IMF said Spanish authorities were taking the right steps to address the country’s debt problems. “The actions that have been taken in Spain recently have managed to decouple, in the views of markets, the fortunes of Spain relative to those of Portugal” and Ireland, said Jose Vinals, director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department. European banks hold large amounts of euro zone sovereign debt, making them vulnerable to losses if countries are forced to restructure. Vinals said lending programs in Greece and Ireland were built on the assumption there would be no such restructuring, and the programs needed time to work. Still, worries about bad debt exposure have heightened investor concerns about bank balance sheets, making it even more important for firms to shore up their capital. U.S. banks built up capital buffers in 2009, when regulators completed a set of stress tests that revealed some large holes. But European banks still need to raise a “significant amount of capital” to regain access to funding markets, the fund said. “It is … imperative that weak banks raise capital to avoid a pernicious cycle of deleveraging, weak credit growth, and falling asset prices,” it warned. LIVING DANGEROUSLY The European Central Bank’s upcoming stress tests provide a “golden opportunity” to improve bank balance sheet transparency and reduce market uncertainty about the quality of assets on banks’ books, the IMF said. European banks won’t be able to obtain all the necessary capital from markets, and public money may have to fill some of the gaps, it added. Banks could also cut dividends and retain a larger portion of earnings. “Overall, a comprehensive set of policies — including capital-raising, restructuring and where necessary resolution of weak banks, and increased transparency about banking risks — is needed to solve banking system vulnerabilities,” it said. “Without these reforms, downside risks will re-emerge.” The IMF said banks’ exposure to troubled sovereign debt is “uncertain,” which adds to the funding strains. It said government debt was generally high and on a worrying upward path in many advanced economies. It repeated its warning that the United States and Japan faced particularly dangerous debt dynamics. Advanced economies were “living dangerously” with high debt burdens, and faced the difficult task of trying to pare deficits without choking off the economic recovery. The fund said government interest bills would likely rise, although the burden should generally remain manageable provided countries proceed with deficit reduction plans. For 2011, Japan and the United States face the largest public debt rollovers of any advanced economy at 56 percent and 29 percent of gross domestic product, respectively. “While the United States and Japan continue to benefit from low current (borrowing) rates, both are very sensitive to a potential rise in funding costs,” it said. (Additional reporting by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa; Editing by Neil Stempleman) Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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CEO of German builder Hochtief to step down

April 12, 2011

CEO of German builder Hochtief to step down

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EU Finance Ministers Urge Austerity Reforms As European Unions Protest

April 9, 2011

GODOLLO, Hungary (Marton Dunai) – EU finance ministers on Saturday urged Portugal to commit to reforms and defended the region’s austerity steps as tens of thousands of European workers protested in Budapest against spending cuts. Finance ministers and central bankers from the 27-nation bloc held a second day of informal talks outside the Hungarian capital on their response to the euro zone debt crisis after Portugal on Wednesday became the third euro zone country to ask for EU and IMF financial aid. EU ministers said that in return for an estimated 80 billion euros in emergency loans over three years, Lisbon would have to commit to further structural reforms to bring down its budget deficit and debt in a sustainable way. “The rules are very clear. Whoever needs assistance by other European member states and member states of the euro zone, he has to deliver sustainable measures for reducing the deficits because the deficits are the reason why they need help,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told reporters. Some 30,000 people from all over Europe marched in central Budapest in protest against austerity measures at a rally organized by the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC). Demonstrators blew horns and chanted slogans, one of which read: “We want jobs! Create, do not abolish (jobs)!” One of the demonstrators, Christian Guldentops from CNE, the Christian Belgian trade union, told Reuters: “We are coming here to say no to the plan of Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy, and to the EU ‘s austerity plan.” John Monks, General Secretary of ETUC, said Europe should not “panic” over high debts and said the cost of paying back the debt for countries like Greece and Ireland was too high. “If we’re all in it together, then what are the banks, what are the financial markets, what are the rich and comfortable doing? We want the broadest shoulders to bear the heaviest burden, not for the whole weight of the adjustment to fall on the poor, the low paid, the unemployed …” FUTURE GROWTH IN FOCUS European Union leaders agreed last month that all EU countries would start consolidating budgets this year as Europe seeks to reassure financial markets that its fiscal policies are sustainable and draw a line under the year-long debt crisis. Olli Rehn, the EU’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner told a news conference on Saturday that reducing the debt burden was essential for future economic growth. “In many countries we have unsustainable debt burdens and therefore it is important also for the sake of economic growth and economic dynamism to ensure that this consolidation can be achieved with full determination and concrete results,” he said. Spanish Economy Minister Elena Salgado said growth and deficit reduction were essential to ensure governments could keep funding the welfare state. “We know that the decisions that are being taken assume efforts and are difficult. But (these decisions) are necessary because we need to grow and we need to reduce our deficit to keep funding the welfare state,” Salgado told reporters. “So, we understand their position (of trade unions) but we would also like that they understand ours,” she said. But in the streets of Budapest protesters said the measures devised by EU leaders would make workers in Europe poorer instead of leading economies out of the crisis. “These measures will take us back to the 1930s. They will cut masses of people out of work — the rich will become richer, the poor will become poorer,” said Fritz Keller from the Austrian trade unions. (Reporting by Ecofin team, writing by Jan Strupczewski, editing by Susan Fenton) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Richard (RJ) Eskow: Real Story or April Fool’s Joke? "Anne Berkshire-Hathaway" and 6 Other Bizarre Economic Tales

April 2, 2011

Writers love coming up with absurd stories on April Fool’s Day and trying to pass them off as real news. So let’s play a game: Which of these stories are real and which are just April Fool’s Day pranks? Meet my friend Berkshire and his wife, Anne: A review of past stock performance suggested that the stock price for Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway corporation goes up whenever movie star Anne Hathaway is in the news. News reports about the release of a new Anne Hathaway movie like Rachel Getting Married , or of her performance co-hosting the Oscars, may have increased the value of the billionaire Sage of Omaha’s stock portfolio. Lazy Dog Millionaire : A major bank’s employees had a party for everyone who received a bonus in the million dollar range – which was a lot of people. As one employee said, million-dollar bonuses were handed out “even if a guy is really lazy and has done s***.” Und you will like it! A few weeks later one of the same bank’s senior executives stood up at a financial gathering and said – in a German accent, no less – that “populations are not ready to voluntarily discipline themselves in more work, less rewards, and less security.” In a particularly Strangelovian turn of phrase, the banker said that we must ” reinvigorate ourselves .” The East Is Red : The CEO of a major American bank thinks a Communist system of banking regulation would be better for his business than ours. Law of the Jungle : In the “over-regulated” United States, people are still losing their entire life savings with what banks promise are “low-risk” investments, but which aren’t really regulated at all. And we don’t need pilots because airliners are so difficult to fly: The architect of bank deregulation, which caused the financial collapse of 2008, now argues that banks shouldn’t be regulated because they’re too complicated to understand. What the Dickens …? An old colonial practice is back: debtors’ prison. ___________________________________ So which of these reports are true and which are just April Fool’s pranks? Answer: They’re all true . But you knew that, didn’t you? Anne Berkshire-Hathaway : As the Huffington Post’s Dan Mirvish reported last week, “When Anne Hathaway makes headlines, the stock for Warren Buffett’s Berkshire-Hathaway goes up.” Mirvish then provided a list of dates when Hathaway made news and Berkshire-Hathaway stocks enjoyed a boost. Mirvish’s argument is persuasive, even if it’s not completely proven. Why is it even plausible? Because billions of dollars are traded every day in what is known as “algorithmic trading” – ultrafast computer transactions with no human intervention. These ” terminators in the casino ” played a role in last year’s ” flash crash ” and are still a threat to market stability. Mirvish speculates that the boost comes from software programs which are designed to scan headlines and look for increasing mentions of a particularly company. Then the programs will execute light-speed purchase of that company’s stock, without human intervention. In our heavily automated stock market, the tiniest delay in the timing of a transaction can make a difference – and algorithmic trading companies make their money by executing a huge number of transactions, each of which may only earn pennies. So the story could be true. Reports suggest that a third of all stock market transactions are algorithmic. As much as 75 percent of global equities are traded algorithmically .The cocoa market suffered a recent near-instantaneous plunge widely believed to have been caused by algorithmic trading, during which U.S. cocoa prices fell more than 10 percent in sixty seconds. Denials by the CEO of ICE , which operates the global futures exchange, were unconvincing. And Kurt Vonnegut readers may find themselves associating the name “ICE” with “Ice Nine,” the seemingly-safe invention in Cat’s Cradle which freezes all the oceans on Earth by mistake. The point of Vonnegut’s novel: Not every new technology will make things better, especially it it’s used carelessly. Even lazy guys who didn’t do sh*t … Business Insider quoted an employee of Barclays Capital in London who said that even these “lazy guys” got 600,000 pound bonuses. That’s just under a million dollars ($980,000) at current exchange rates. They also reported that some of the personal assistants at Barclay’ Capital in London got bonuses in the $100,000 range, and that a nearby Mercedes dealership observed that “it’s been a busy day.” “Submit to our voluntary discipline …” This story’s also true, although we cheated a little: The banker spoke in a German accent because he’s German. Another story from Business Insider reported that Hans-Jörg Rudloff , Chairman of the Board at Barclays Capital, told the Forum of Economic News that the European Union should cut social benefits in half, require longer working hours, and delay retirements even further than is currently being planned. Red Dimon. According to Bloomberg News , JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told a U.S. Chamber of Commerce conference that American banks are at a competitive disadvantage because “India, China, Japan and South Korea don’t have the same restrictions on financial firms that are found in the U.S.” All of China’s major banks are owned by the state and operated by Communist Party leaders. Dimon also said that “Singapore is licking its chops, hoping that a lot of the business goes over there.” An analyst summarized the findings of the conservative Heritage Foundation by noting that “as much as 60 percent of Singapore’s national output … came from partially state-owned companies.” The architect of bank deregulation … That would be Alan Greenspan, who has descended to new lows of incoherence in attempting to defend both his failed record and his failed deregulatory philosophy. Felix Salmon , who’s a pretty judicious and fair-minded guy, said that “Greenspan could hardly have made himself look like more of an idiot if he’d tried.” Alex Eichler’s review of Greenspan’s editorial in the Financial Times was entitled ” Why Everybody Is Laughing At Alan Greenspan Today .” I could almost feel sorry for the old gent – if it weren’t for his almost sociopathic disregard for the consequences of his own actions. Much sport was made of the fact that Greenspan said the free market works “with notably rare exceptions (2008, for example).” Write your own joke, as Ed McMahon would say. I ain’t even gonna try. Over-Regulated America … From The Nation’s Investigative Fund : “Structured products must be registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission, but that’s about it. No regulator reviews them before they’re sold. When Congress enacted the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial-reform law, these complex products were ignored. The law created a new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which will investigate deceptive marketing practices (among other duties), but the new agency won’t oversee the securities industry.” The Nation told several stories like that of Rob Brunhild of West Bloomfield , MI, who lost $275,000 after investing in Lehman structured notes through UBS Bank. “The broker implied that the notes were like U.S. Treasuries,” said Brunhild. Wall Street sold more than $51 billion of these investments last year. Investors have already lost $164 billion in these and similar products – and both sales and losses are expected to increase. Welcome to your ” super-overregulated ” nation. Debtors’ Prison: The Wall Street Journal reports on the increasing use of the criminal justice system to arrest and jail people for owing money – sometimes before they’ve even been notified that they do owe money. The Journal cites the growing backlash to “sloppy, incomplete or even false documentation that can result in borrowers having no idea before being locked up that they were sued to collect an outstanding debt.” This is not from a report in the Nation , Rolling Stone , or even (God forbid) the Huffington Post . This is from the Wall Street Journal – Rupert Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal . ____________ In other news: Senior executives at NASDAQ and the New York Stock Exchange announced most stock transactions will now be executed at faster-than-light speed through a random number-generation process that will, in their words, “combine the high-speed efficiency of a cascading power failure with the predictive accuracy of chicken-entrail reading.” And the CEOs of the five largest banks in the country announced that their institutions are being restructured, and will now be run as workers’ collectives. Management decisions will be made by a workers’ Soviet comprised of unionized clerical employees, drivers, maintenance workers, and other members of the staff who are untainted by overtly capitalistic career histories. In addition, after reading of the “Anne Hathaway” phenomenon the CEOs also announced that each of their banks will be named after celebrities. JPMorgan Chase will henceforth be known as the “Bank of Snooki.” And it was also reported … Ahh, forget it! I’m not going to come up with anything as strange or funny as these real stories. Or they would be funny, if they weren’t causing so much real-world trouble. Some April Fool’s Day this turned out to be. _______________________________________________________________ Richard (RJ) Eskow, a consultant and writer (and former insurance/finance executive), is a Senior Fellow with the Campaign for America’s Future. This post was produced as part of the Curbing Wall Street project. Richard also blogs at A Night Light . He can be reached at “rjeskow@ourfuture.org.” Website: Eskow and Associates

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Nasdaq Makes Huge Rival Bid To Buy NYSE

April 1, 2011

Nasdaq OMX and IntercontinentalExchange unveiled a rival bid to buy NYSE Euronext for about $11.3 billion in cash and stock, a 19 percent premium to an offer made by German competitor Deutsche Boerse. The move, announced on Friday, represents an intense bidding war for NYSE Euronext, whose derivatives trading operations are highly valuable. The new bid could also sit better politically, because the idea of a German company taking over the emblematic NYSE headquarters had stirred some political opposition in the United States. The offer is valued at $42.50 per share, a premium of 19 percent to the agreement proposed by Deutsche Boerse in February, the companies said in the statement. Shares of NYSE Euronext were up 11.6 percent at $39.26 in trading before the market opened. (Reporting by Supantha Mukherjee in Bangalore and Lauren Tara LaCapra in New York; Editing by Unnikrishnan Nair and Lisa Von Ahn) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Edward D. Kleinbard: The Global Tax Avoidance Dance

March 31, 2011

America’s most successful multinationals make great products and offer superior services. But they have another, less enviable quality in common — they have become world leaders in tax avoidance. General Electric’s global effective tax rate for 2010 was 7.4% . Pfizer’s was 11.9% ; Cisco came in at 17.5% . The nominal U.S. corporate tax rate is 35%. Each company has its own tax story, but all — like other multinationals — have for years relied heavily on low-taxed foreign income to drive down their worldwide tax obligations, including those of their U.S. businesses. American multinationals claim they are taxed on their worldwide income, but in reality the “active” income they earn through foreign subsidiaries is not taxed in this country until the cash is repatriated. In addition, financial accounting practices (the lens through which we view these firms because their tax returns are not public) permit a company not to book any U.S. tax liability on foreign earnings if the firm states that the income is “indefinitely invested” abroad. General Electric has $94 billion in indefinitely reinvested earnings. The total for corporate America is more than $1 trillion. 
 If the story was simply that U.S. firms have successfully expanded into international markets and are paying taxes abroad at lower rates, one could argue that there is no U.S. tax mischief afoot. But these are not the facts. Tax collectors in the U.S. and in high-tax foreign countries are the direct victims of the tax avoidance, but we all suffer from the resulting budget deficits and distorted investment decisions that firms make as a result of their ability to generate what I call “stateless income” — income derived from selling goods and services in a high-tax country but that, through internal tax legerdemain, surfaces in a low-taxed affiliate. What’s going on is a highly choreographed six-step dance. Step 1: U.S. firms rely on aggressive “transfer pricing” to sell, at bargain prices, high-profit U.S. assets or business opportunities to their low-taxed foreign subsidiaries in countries like Ireland. It cannot be simply the luck of the Irish that explains the extraordinary profitability of the Irish subsidiaries of U.S. firms relative to their European sister companies. Step 2: U.S. multinationals move income from higher-tax foreign countries, where their customers actually are located, to lower-taxed ones not only through transfer pricing but also through “earnings stripping.” For example, a corporation funds its German subsidiary with loans secured in Ireland, so the interest is deductible in Germany. Step 3: Not satisfied with low corporate tax rates in Ireland (12.5%) or in other countries, U.S. firms set up exotic internal funding structures — with such names as “Double Irish Dutch Sandwich” — to shift income from these countries to zero-tax havens like Bermuda. Step 4: Firms arbitrage what remains of their U.S. tax base by parking their global external-debt financing here, which creates interest deductions to shield their U.S. income. They then overstuff their low-taxed foreign subsidiaries with equity capital. Step 5: Having put their stateless-income generating machines in motion, U.S. firms let their ultra-low-taxed foreign income accumulate abroad. Microsoft, for example, has accumulated $29.5 billion in offshore indefinitely reinvested earnings. Its financial statements suggest that its effective foreign tax rate from selling its products and services to customers located primarily in populous and relatively high-tax countries is in the neighborhood of 4%. Step 6: With more than $1 trillion in low-taxed earnings offshore, the firms complain to Congress that U.S. tax law impedes their ability to reinvest their foreign earnings back home because they have not yet paid U.S. taxes on them. They demand a special tax holiday from Congress so they can complete the circle and repatriate all those earnings at nominal cost. All this tax engineering has yielded tax burdens that bear no relationship to tax rates in the United States or in the populous foreign countries where the firms actually have personnel, real investment and customers. It’s true that the U.S. corporate tax rate, at 35%, is too high relative to its economic peers, about 28% on average. ( Click here for data on the 31 member states of the OECD; the 28% figure is an unweighted average of the larger OECD members. Click here for the “BRICs” and other non-OECD countries.) But the solution is not to reward U.S. multinationals for concocting and implementing worldwide tax-minimization schemes. The only feasible solution is to lower the U.S. rate to a level comparable with global norms and to pay for the reduction in part by introducing worldwide tax consolidation for U.S. firms, just as they today consolidate their worldwide operations for financial accounting purposes. Edward D. Kleinbard, a professor of law at the University of Southern California Gould School of Law, is former chief of staff of the U.S. Congress’ Joint Committee on Taxation. The facts and arguments in this piece are abstracted from two recent papers authored by Prof. Kleinbard: Stateless Income and The Lessons of Stateless Income . 




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U.S. Economy Growing Faster Than Rivals, But Creating Far Fewer Jobs

March 31, 2011

WASHINGTON — The United States is out of step with the rest of the world’s richest industrialized nations: Its economy is growing faster than theirs but creating far fewer jobs. The reason is U.S. workers have become so productive that it’s harder for anyone without a job to get one. Companies are producing and profiting more than when the recession began, despite fewer workers. They’re hiring again, but not fast enough to replace most of the 7.5 million jobs lost since the recession began. Measured in growth, the American economy has outperformed those of Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Japan – every Group of 7 developed nation except Canada, according to The Associated Press’ new Global Economy Tracker, a quarterly analysis of 22 countries representing more than 80 percent of global output. Yet the U.S. job market remains the group’s weakest. U.S. employment bottomed and started growing again a year ago, but there are still 5.4 percent fewer American jobs than in December 2007. That’s a much sharper drop than in any other G-7 country. The U.S. had the G-7′s highest unemployment rate as of December. Canada and Germany have actually added jobs since the recession ended in June 2009. U.S. companies aren’t acting the way economists had expected them to. In the past, when the U.S. economy fell into recession, companies typically cut jobs but often kept more than they needed. Some might have felt protective of their staffs. Or they didn’t want to risk losing skilled employees they’d need once business rebounded. Among manufacturers, for example, some tended to hoard workers during downturns by giving them make-work assignments – sweeping factory floors, counting inventory, painting warehouses. The result is that productivity – output per workers – has typically decelerated or even dropped as the economy has weakened. Japan and Europe have been following that script. At the depth of the recession in 2009, productivity shrank 3.7 percent in Japan and 2.2 percent in Europe. The United States has proved the exception. U.S. productivity growth doubled from 2008 to 2009, then doubled again in 2010, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Panicked by the 2008 financial crisis and deepening recession, U.S. employers cut jobs pitilessly. They slashed an average of 780,000 jobs a month in the January-March quarter of 2009. “My sense is there was much more weeding out of the weakest workers – the ones they didn’t want,” says Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff. Yet after shrinking payrolls, many companies found they could produce just as much with fewer workers. And with that higher productivity came higher profits. By July-September quarter of 2010, U.S. corporate earnings were 12 percent more than when the recession began. By contrast, corporate profits fell 6 percent in Japan and 16 percent in Canada from the October-December quarter of 2007, according to Haver Analytics. In Reading, Pennsylvania, Remcon Plastics moved fast once sales evaporated in the fall of 2008. “I have never seen my business go so quiet,” says Peter Connors, founder of the company, which makes pharmaceutical equipment. “I recognized that business wasn’t going to be strong for some time.” So he laid off 25 temporary workers. And he put his 50 full-time employees on a three-day workweek. Remcon rethought how it did business – restructuring the workplace, for example, so employees didn’t have to walk as far to do their tasks. A plastic part that once had to be made by six workers now needs three. It can be produced faster. “So even as demand came back, we could wait to add people,” Connors says. Japanese, European and Canadian companies are less inclined to purge employees. Their customs, labor regulations and unions discourage aggressive layoffs. U.S. management practices “make it easier for employers to avoid adding permanent jobs,” says economist Erica Groshen, a vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “They have temporary help they can hire easily. They’re less constrained by traditional human resources practices or by union contracts.” Fewer than 12 percent of American workers belong to unions, which provide some protection against job cuts. That’s the fourth-lowest union participation rate among 31 countries the OECD tracks. “When there’s pressure to cut costs in the United States, it’s borne by the workers,” says Howard Rosen, visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “In Europe, it’s borne differently.” In Germany, unemployment is lower now than before the recession. To limit layoffs, German companies spread the pain by reducing workers’ hours. “Japanese companies took it upon themselves to paint the factory – do more stuff that kept people on the payroll,” says Gary Burtless, senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution. That helps explain why Japan’s unemployment rate was the lowest among G-7 countries in December at just 4.9 percent, though it may rise after the earthquake and nuclear disaster that struck Japan’s northeastern coastline. The United States is “on the other end of the spectrum,” says Carl Van Horn, director of the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University. “Everything is tilted in favor of the employers… The employee has no leverage. If your boss says, `I want you to come in the next two Saturdays,’ what are you going to say – no?” ____ AP Business Writer Pallavi Gogoi in New York contributed to this report.

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José Viñals: Government Bonds: No Longer a World Without Risk

March 25, 2011

The risk free nature of government bonds, one of the cornerstones of the global financial system, has come into question as the global crisis unfolds. One thing is now very clear: government bonds are no longer the risk-free assets they once were. This carries far reaching implications for policymakers, central bankers, debt managers, and how the demand and supply sides of government bond markets function. After a recent IMF conference on a new approach to government risk, I’d like to highlight three key aspects: In a world without a risk free rate, the health of the financial sector and the government are closely interconnected. We need to better understand the linkages between sovereign and financial risks, and conduct a thorough analysis of the channels of cross-border spillovers. Policies to help manage sovereign risk will have a positive impact on financial stability, and measures to stabilize the banking sector will have a favorable impact on sovereign balance sheets. Countries with large potential liabilities from their banking sectors need to identify, assess, monitor, and report related risks closely. The impact of these contingent liabilities on the government’s financial position, including its overall liquidity, needs to be assessed when making borrowing decisions. The risks involved call for stronger emphasis on stress tests. There is anecdotal evidence that some debt managers are complementing existing analytical approaches with a greater focus on stress scenarios, including extreme financing shocks. Policymakers could take the extra step and contemplate the role for a joint stress test for systemically important financial institutions and sovereigns. The outcomes of such stress tests could help inform crisis preparedness, debt strategies, as well as financial supervision and regulation. Implications for supply and demand These views are the result of some recent profound changes in the way government bond markets operate. On the demand side of the market, dealers and investors no longer treat these bonds as purely interest rate products. Far from it, government bonds have assumed characteristics typical of credit products, for which prices mainly provide measures of borrowers’ probabilities of default. Many are not as liquid as before and their investor base is not as diversified as it used to be. During phases of risk aversion, they do not benefit from flight to quality flows. On the contrary, they correlate with risky assets. Credit rating downgrades play a procyclical role and can exacerbate these adverse dynamics. Central bankers generally accept government bonds as collateral in refinancing operations, but, below certain thresholds, lower ratings could trigger sizeable haircuts, in other words, revaluing the bonds substantially below their market value. Regulators could also assign them a non-zero risk weight under the standardized approach and suddenly these bonds are not risk-free rates any longer. And even if bonds such as United States Treasuries and German Bunds have retained most of their risk-free characteristics, the once solid dividing line between interest rate and credit products has become blurred. In the long run, such changes can profoundly affect investors’ choices. One example of these changes is that more capital may flow towards emerging markets. These economies have been able to absorb the recent inflows, but the increase in corporate and financial leverage, rising asset prices, and building inflationary pressures may soon translate into growing imbalances and open the door to a new set of challenges to financial stability. On the supply side of the market, debt managers in advanced economies have started behaving a bit like their emerging market colleagues. Given the increased exposure to economic and financial risks, they have started placing stronger emphasis on risk mitigation strategies , well beyond what traditional debt management objectives would indicate. Confronted with the usual trade-off between being predictable or flexible, most of them have erred on the side of flexibility. While retaining an open dialogue with financial markets, they realize that annual programs have to offer sufficient flexibility to cope with the challenges of issuing and managing larger amounts of debt. Finally, debt managers are putting a high premium on proactive and timely communication as well as on understanding the evolving nature of the investor base. These are precisely the elements that were outlined in the ‘Stockholm Principles’ IMF facilitated with the debt managers in September 2010. The global crisis is sending many of us back to the drawing board to take a fresh look at old assumptions and long cherished principles, and the risk free nature of government bonds is no exception. From iMFdirect blog

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Portugal Unlikely To Seek EU Bailout Package

March 24, 2011

LISBON/BRUSSELS – The resignation of Portugal’s prime minister will dominate a summit of EU leaders on the European economy on Thursday and Friday, with pressure intense on Lisbon to seek a bailout package. Prime Minister Jose Socrates resigned on Wednesday after parliament rejected his government’s latest austerity measures aimed at avoiding EU financial assistance. But he said he would still attend the two-day summit in a caretaker capacity. Socrates remains adamantly opposed to requesting EU/IMF aid and has made it clear he intends to hold that line, at least until a new Portuguese government is formed in the weeks ahead. That leaves Portugal in limbo, but the likelihood remains that a bailout will have to be taken in the end. Asked if Socrates would ask for aid at the summit, a senior EU official said: “I would be surprised. There is a doubt on whether he has any mandate right now to do so … But I would not rule out.” Lisbon needs to refinance 4.5 billion euros of sovereign debt in April, which may prove a trigger for finally making the request for aid. One problem complicating Portugal’s situation is that any bailout request would have to be approved by parliament and the majority is opposed to asking for help. “I have always warned of the profoundly negative consequences of seeking foreign aid,” Socrates said as he resigned, vowing to continue to do everything to avoid it. If aid were to be requested — and EU officials have made clear they stand ready to provide one — it is estimated that Lisbon would need 60-80 billion euros. Portuguese benchmark 10-year bond yields rose further on Thursday, climbing to 7.90 percent, far above the 7.0 percent that is regarded as long-term sustainable. The euro weakened to $1.4070 from $1.4117. China, which has offered to buy Portuguese government debt in the past, said it saw continued risks from the euro zone debt crisis but added that it had increased its holdings of European government bonds to help the region. SUMMIT PROBLEMS The summit, which was originally expected to sign off on a “comprehensive package” of measures that EU leaders thought would help resolve their year-long debt problems, is now not expected to take any firm decisions on central issues. “We think that no agreement at the EU summit on the bailout facilities should erode euro support further in the near term,” said Valentin Marinov, currency analyst at CitiFX. Draft conclusions drawn up ahead of the summit showed that a decision on how to increase the effective lending capacity of the current bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, would not now be taken until mid-year, probably ahead of a summit in late June. While a technical issue — it centers on whether euro zone member states will provide capital or guarantees to raise the effective capacity of the EFSF from 250 billion euros to the full 440 billion — it risks further undermining market confidence in EU policymakers’ ability to resolve the crisis. Finland is one of the main obstacles to a decision, since it has dissolved parliament ahead of elections on April 17 and cannot therefore sign off on a deal. Helsinki opposes using more guarantees to increase the effective size of the EFSF. A new Finnish government is only likely to be formed by May at the earliest, and that government may include the euroskeptic True Finns party, which opposes some of the EU’s proposed crisis steps, further complicating the outlook. Over the last few months, EU leaders have made considerable progress in putting together the crisis package. They have decided in principle to expand the EFSF, agreed to create a permanent crisis fund — the European Stability Mechanism — to replace the EFSF from 2013, and agreed to strengthen economic coordination and increase productivity. But as well as being unable to agree on exactly how the EFSF’s capacity should be increased, there are doubts about how they will finance the 500 billion euro ESM using paid-in capital, callable capital and guarantees. A German official said on Wednesday that Berlin now wanted this week’s summit to alter a timetable agreed by EU finance ministers on Monday for injecting cash into the ESM. While this is another nitty-gritty issue, it contributes to a sense in financial markets that EU member states are endlessly at odds over how best to handle the debt crisis, and that everything could yet unravel. NO MOVE ON IRELAND The summit is also unlikely to make progress on reducing the interest rate on bailout loans extended to Ireland. Dublin says the rate is so high that it cripples the Irish economy, but agreement on cutting it has been held up by Dublin’s refusal to give in to German and French pressure for Ireland to raise its low corporate tax rate. “There is almost certainly not going to be a resolution of the Irish issues tomorrow or Friday,” an EU diplomat said on Wednesday. “The feeling is that the outstanding issues for Ireland, which are not just the interest rate but the banking question, that they are better dealt with as a package.” Dublin and the EU are only expected to start detailed talks on how to rescue the Irish banking system after the central bank publishes its assessment of Irish commercial banks on March 31. (Editing by Mike Peacock) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Stephen Herrington: Swarm of the Black Swans

March 17, 2011

Moving to Southwest Washington State where I built a house on the beach with my hands and the skill and hands of a couple of excellent German expatriates, I was struck with the attitude of locals toward storm surge and possible tsunami. It had never happened the locals said, dismissively. Last week a tsunami happened, and, thankfully, we were spared. We weren’t so in 2007 when a hurricane force storm hit and denuded the surrounding tree farms of hundred year old trees and took 30 feet out of the barrier dunes. Luckily, it hit at low tide. They have no name classification for a storm like that in this place because there’s no cultural memory for it — it’s named by the date, December 7, 2007. Fortunately I built an octagon house to slip through the wind and to withstand it with integral shear walls, thick and wide earthquake foundation footers, hurricane rafter ties, a 140 mph roof and a backup generator. In the aftermath, my neighbors wandered around picking up parts of their houses and burning them for heat and light for five days until power was restored. All roads in or out were blocked by thousands of fallen 100′ fir trees. Record snows and flooding and record heat and drought stalk the land in the same year now. Call it climate change or an act of God or whatever you want. Tornadoes and wildfires in the winter? But I’m not here to argue climate change. Whether it’s manmade or not or whether it even exists. I’m here to argue that unexpected things happen to people who refuse to expect them. Nassim Nicholas Taleb coined the term Black Swan as a metaphor of something so unexpected in markets and finance that it was generally considered to be statistically impossible, like the birth of a black swan to snow white parent swans. His point was that if it were statistically so unlikely that it seemed it shouldn’t happen that would not mean that it couldn’t happen. What they try and stress in statistics theory is that likelihood is not preventative, not a shelter. Standing away from a tree during a lightening storm is preventative. Not betting you can fill an inside straight in draw poker is preventative. Probability is not an affirmative defense. Hedge funds were built on the unlikelihood of combinations of events ever happening. Hedge funds eventually evolved, by intentional design effort, insurance policies against unlikely things happening because of the actuarial unlikeliness of those things happening. The volumes in derivatives seems to indicate that everybody with a net worth of or operating expenses of $10 million bought them to hedge against unforeseeable disaster. Trouble was, the disaster that would follow was because the actuarial assumptions didn’t account for the unforeseeable, they accounted for the foreseeable and the statistical likelihood of the foreseeable. Disasters routinely smack actuarials in the face with a brick. A “hurricane” in the Pacific Northwest was foreseeable but it had been discounted by folk wisdom. A hurricane of the force and site of Katrina was foreseeable but had been statistically discounted in likelihood the way my neighbors had discounted the largest storm anyone had ever seen in their lifetimes. Hundred year floods and hundred year snows and hundred year heat waves and droughts had not happened in the Midwest and east for lifetimes, let alone in the same year. The oil rig with the best performance record in the fleet had the worst oil spill since drilling for oil became a practice of humans. A little extra pressure on the crew and management to meet a schedule in a difficult bore caused the accident that killed 11 and saturated a quarter of the Gulf with crude. That little extra performance pressure was not foreseen because no one had ever pushed the limits of performance like that before. The consensus of the foreseeable was that no such thing could happen. Somehow, and for some time, someone, perhaps a driller (master foreman) or a roughneck, had punched an ambitious corporate prick in the face to stop a disaster, again and again. That last safety valve didn’t work this time. The consensus foreseeable had been designed into Fukushima nuclear facilities. Likely earthquake intensities were designed into the structures. A tsunami sea wall had been built for the likely size of tsunami. But intensity and tsunami were surpassed at once, and the redundant systems failed to arrest the dangers of damaged nuclear facilities. Obvious design flaws in those backup systems were excused by assumptions of what is probable given the sea wall and earthquake measures. The housing bubble collapsed, and because of assumptions that all risk had been taken out of the system by laying it off on counterparties to bad loan practices, it became a disaster in catastrophic scale. No one foresaw that the counterparties couldn’t absorb the scale of claims against them. The consensus wisdom was that they could underwrite it all, the consensus not knowing the depths of exposure they were buying into because of the lack of transparency in the private equities markets. The perfect financial tsunami took out the engine of American finance in a sequence of events not unlike events that triggered the melting down of Fukushima nuclear reactors. 9/11 happened because even the small measures necessary to stop it weren’t considered by reason of the likelihood of it being so small. When the personal ego ambitions of George W. Bush were added to the catastrophe, it was multiplied into 1,000 times the original tragedy to persons and properties and our international standing. Bush’s ambition to be a “war president” was not calculated into the risk assessments. A conflagration could have been stopped by measures at airport check in, and would have had we foreseen the magnitude of the eventual outcome. Black Swans. The world is so big, so volatile, there are so many people living on the edge of volcanoes both natural and manmade, it’s impossible to excuse the thinking that governments are not responsible, or that governments are not needed to correct their own irresponsibility and the irresponsibility of their private enterprises. The American housing bubble collapse triggered the near failure of global finance. Only government, by harnessing the power of the worlds largest economy through borrowing, saved the globe from total financial meltdown. Only governments can repair the damages of events so calamitous that they swallow up private capital’s ability to underwrite the risks. To make governments smaller is to take the biggest risk of all. That risk is that nothing will happen that it will take a government to fix. Bad decisions are made by governments. Bad decisions are made by private enterprise. Independent of each other, they would still both make bad decisions. But together, enterprise looks to influence government to sanction their mistakes and correct them if they go terribly wrong. Government makes fewer mistakes unencumbered by the influence of private enterprise to backstop enterprise’s willingness to take risks or it’s just plain stupidity. Government and business is a union that is mutually and universally destructive because of the quid pro quo of campaign finance. Business influences government to think poorly, an outcome which abrogates it’s charter to “promote the general welfare.” The ability to foresee is not that hard. I figured to build a house that would stand a 100 years in an environment of horizontal rain and an unpredictable sea and sand. So what could happen in a 100 years was input into how I built it. Unfortunately, this is a skill of foresight lost by politicians, most particularly those on the right. My house may yet not survive a 100 years. But it will not be for the lack of the foresight I had while building it. It will be lost for the risk of a foreseen earthquake in the subduction fault just a few miles off shore, the last rupture of which happened 300 years ago. The Monday Morning Economist

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Video: EU Leaders Widen Bailout Fund, Ease Greece’s Loan Terms

March 14, 2011

March 14 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s David Tweed reports on the agreement struck by European leaders to broaden the size and scope of their 440 billion-euro ($614 billion) bailout fund and ease the terms of Greek rescue loans. This report includes comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny and ING Group economist Carsten Brzeski.

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Europe Ahead: UK trade balance and German industrial production under the spotlight

March 9, 2011

Europe Ahead: UK trade balance and German industrial production under the spotlight

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