gold

Downhill Skier Defago Seeks to Lift Swiss Gold Lead

February 16, 2010

By Erik Matuszewski Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) — Didier Defago of Switzerland got the Olympic souvenir he was hoping for with his record-setting victory in the men’s downhill and now gets another chance for a gold medal in the super-combined race. Defago, 32, became the oldest Olympic downhill winner yesterday at the Winter Olympics in Vancouver by beating two- time World Cup champions Aksel Lund Svindal of Norway and Bode Miller of the U.S. The first Swiss to win the downhill since Pirmin Zurbriggen in 1988 at Calgary, Defago will again challenge Svindal and Miller, and favorites Ivica Kostelic of Croatia and Benjamin Raich of Austria in the second Alpine skiing event of the Games. “It’s a great satisfaction for me,” Defago told reporters after his win at Whistler Creekside. “(An Olympic medal) is what I was missing. I wanted to bring back a little more weight in my luggage than what I came with.” Switzerland has a Games-best three gold medals after wins yesterday by Defago and Dario Cologna in the men’s 15-kilometer cross-country ski race. The U.S. leads all countries with eight medals and picked up its second gold yesterday as Seth Wescott passed Canada’s Mike Robertson on the next-to-last jump to defend his Olympic title in the men’s snowboard cross. Germany has five medals, followed by Canada and France with four each, and Switzerland, Norway, South Korea and Italy with three. Medal Winners Charlotte Kalla won the women’s 10-kilometer cross-country race to give Sweden its first medal of the Olympics. Another gold medal went to Tae-Bum Mo of South Korea, who celebrated his 21st birthday with a victory in the men’s 500-meter speedskating event at the Richmond Olympic Oval south of Vancouver. Shen Xue and Zhao Hongbo won the pairs gold to give China its first Olympic figure skating title and first gold of the Vancouver Games. China also claimed a silver medal in the event through Pang Qing and Tong Jian, while German pair Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy received the bronze. The super-combined, in which competitors race one downhill run and one slalom run, is among five medal events scheduled for today. Defending Olympic champion Ted Ligety of the U.S. said he doesn’t consider himself among the favorites in Vancouver after the format for the event was changed following his victory at the 2006 Games in Turin, Italy. The combined used to feature one downhill run and two slalom runs. Took Hiatus “Someone like Ivica who’s been winning slaloms and also gets top-20s in downhills is a lot more of a favorite than I am,” said Ligety, who didn’t compete in yesterday’s downhill. Miller won the silver medal in the combined at the 2002 Games in Salt Lake City before being disqualified four years ago in Italy, where he failed to medal in any of his four races. The 32-year-old Miller, who considered retirement during a hiatus from skiing last year, said he’s back in form and re-energized by competing in the Olympics. “You have to feed off of it and let it elevate your performance,” Miller told reporters yesterday. “One thing that was important when I decided to continue this year was to race in the right fashion.” Lindsey Jacobellis of the U.S. aims to improve on her silver medal performance in the women’s snowboard cross in Turin, where she fell on the next-to-last jump while attempting a celebratory trick with a large lead. Jacobellis lost her balance, fell on her back was passed for the gold by Switzerland’s Tanja Frieden. Hockey Favorites Biathlon medals will be awarded in the women’s 10-kilometer pursuit and the men’s 12.5-kilometer pursuit, while the women’s singles luge title will also be decided. The Canadian men’s ice hockey team begins its pursuit of a gold medal with an opening-round game against Norway. Canada is seeking to become the first host country to capture an Olympic gold medal in hockey since 1980, when the U.S. won at Lake Placid, New York. “This event is so big and the guys want to do so well, they’ll do whatever they have to,” said former Detroit Red Wings captain Steve Yzerman , now executive director of team Canada. “I believe it comes down to character. And we have 23 guys that have great character.” To contact the reporter on this story: Erik Matuszewski in Vancouver, at matuszewski@bloomberg.net

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France Wins Two Gold Medals on Second Day of Vancouver Olympics

February 14, 2010

By Erik Matuszewski Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) — Jason Lamy Chappuis of France beat Johnny Spillane of the U.S. by four-tenths of a second to win the gold medal in the Olympic Nordic combined event. Vincent Jay earlier won gold for France in the men’s biathlon 10-kilometer sprint, where favorite Ole Einar Bjoerndalen of Norway failed to add to his nine career medals. France is the first country to win two gold medals at the Vancouver Winter Games, where the U.S. leads the total medal standings with five. Spillane’s silver was the first medal for an American in Nordic combined, which features ski jumping and a 10-kilometer cross-country ski race. Lamy Chappuis, 23, outraced Spillane to the finish line to win in a time of 25 minutes, 47.1 seconds at Whistler Olympic Park. At the same venue earlier in the day, Jay, 24, finished more than 12 seconds ahead of silver medalist Emil Hegle Svendsen of Norway in the 10-kilometer biathlon, which features athletes cross-country skiing and shooting at fixed targets. Bjoerndalen, 36, who is three medals shy of the Winter Games-record of 12 held by Norwegian cross-country skier Bjorn Daehlie , finished in 17th place after a series of penalties. Three other medals are scheduled to be contested today, including the men’s luge title at Whistler’s sliding center, where Nodar Kumaritashvili, from the country of Georgia, was killed two days ago in a high-speed crash on a training run. Gold medals will also be awarded in women’s 3,000-meter speedskating and men’s freestyle skiing moguls. U.S. Leads Medal Standings The U.S. won four medals on the first day of Olympic competition yesterday. Freestyle skier Hannah Kearney of the U.S. won the last of yesterday’s five gold medals, beating defending Olympic champion Jennifer Heil on the final run of the women’s moguls competition to deny Canada its first gold on home soil. Heil’s silver is the lone medal through the first six events for Canada, which failed to win a gold medal the previous two times it hosted the Olympics — the 1976 Summer Games in Montreal and the 1988 Winter Games in Calgary. Apolo Anton Ohno took the silver medal behind South Korea’s Jung-Su Lee in the men’s 1,500-meter short track speedskating yesterday, tying Bonnie Blair for the most medals by an American athlete in the Winter Olympics. Dutch speedskater Sven Kramer set an Olympic record in winning the men’s 5,000 meters, while Anastazia Kuzmina gave Slovakia its first Winter gold by beating out Germany’s Magdalena Neuner in the women’s 7.5-kilometer biathlon sprint. Swiss ski jumper Simon Ammann won the Games’ first gold medal in the men’s normal hill event. Weather Postponement The women’s super-combined scheduled for today was postponed until Feb. 18 because of poor weather at the Whistler Creekside Alpine Skiing venue. The delay was welcomed by two- time World Cup champion Lindsey Vonn of the U.S., who is trying to recover from a deep bruise in her right shin. A downhill training run scheduled for today was also canceled. The men’s downhill that had been scheduled for yesterday was pushed back to tomorrow, as unseasonably warm temperatures have produced more rain than snow near Vancouver. To contact the reporter on this story: Erik Matuszewski in Vancouver, at matuszewski@bloomberg.net

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U.S. Tops Olympic Standings; Canada Is Denied Gold at Home

February 14, 2010

By Erik Matuszewski and Christopher Donville Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) — Freestyle skier Hannah Kearney denied Canada its first Olympic gold medal on home soil and vaulted the U.S. atop the medal standings after the first day of competition at the Winter Games in Vancouver. Kearney beat Canada’s defending Olympic champion Jennifer Heil , 26, on the final run of the women’s moguls competition to win the last of yesterday’s five gold medals. “I heard the roar of the crowd when Jenn got her score, so I knew I had to go for it,” said Kearney, 23, who was the favorite at the 2006 Games in Turin and failed to qualify for the finals. “I feel for her but I wanted that medal as well.” Canada failed to win a gold medal the previous two times it hosted the Olympics — the 1976 Summer Games in Montreal and the 1988 Winter Games in Calgary. The U.S. tops the Olympic standings with four medals, while South Korea with two is the only other country with multiple medals. Apolo Anton Ohno took the silver medal behind South Korea’s Jung-Su Lee in the men’s 1,500-meter short track speedskating, tying Bonnie Blair for the most medals by an American athlete in the Winter Olympics. Dutch speedskater Sven Kramer set an Olympic record in winning the men’s 5,000 meters, while Anastazia Kuzmina gave Slovakia its first Winter gold by beating out Germany’s Magdalena Neuner in the women’s 7.5-kilometer biathlon sprint. First Medal Swiss ski jumper Simon Ammann won the Games’ first gold medal in the men’s normal hill event as competition began a day after Nodar Kumaritashvili, a luger from the country of Georgia, was killed in a high-speed crash on a training run. Five more medals are scheduled to be decided today, when Norwegian biathlete Ole Einar Bjoerndalen seeks his 10th career Olympic medal as he competes in the men’s 10-kilometer sprint. Norwegian cross-country skier Bjorn Daehlie holds the Winter Games-record of 12 medals. The men’s luge title will be decided at Whistler’s sliding center. Though an investigation found no track deficiencies, organizers shortened the course by 175 meters (577 feet) to reduce speeds and offer “emotional” support to competitors after Kumaritashvili’s death. Gold medals are also scheduled to be awarded in women’s 3,000-meter speedskating, men’s freestyle skiing moguls and men’s Nordic combined, where brothers Jan and Tommy Schmid will compete for different countries. Born to Swiss parents in Norway, Tommy represents Switzerland while Jan switched his allegiance to Norway after competing for the Swiss in 2006. Race Postponed The women’s super-combined scheduled for today was postponed until Feb. 18 because of poor weather at the Whistler Creekside Alpine Skiing venue. The delay was welcomed by two- time World Cup champion Lindsey Vonn of the U.S., who is trying to recover from a deep bruise in her right shin. “I’m lucking out pretty heavily because of all the cancellations,” said Vonn, who is scheduled for a downhill training run today. “Normally I would be disappointed, but for my shin I think this is the best possible scenario.” The men’s downhill that had been scheduled for yesterday was pushed back to tomorrow, as unseasonably warm temperatures have produced more rain than snow near Vancouver. Outside the Olympic venues, about 200 demonstrators clashed with police in downtown Vancouver as they marched to protest against the Winter Games, resulting in several arrests, local police said. Protesters smashed windows and spray painted vehicles, Vancouver’s police department said in an e-mailed statement today. There were no confirmed injuries, police said. Heil’s Silver In yesterday’s final event, Heil took the lead in the women’s moguls with a score of 25.69 on the next-to-last run as Kearney waited at the top of the hill. Kearney then raced down the moguls course, executing a back flip and a 360-degree spin, to take the gold medal with 26.63 points. American Shannon Bahrke claimed the bronze. Heil said she wasn’t disappointed with second place. “I did what I wanted to do and I’m really proud,” Heil told reporters. “I felt like I was standing on the shoulders of so many Canadians. I felt like I had their wings on my back.” South Korea missed a 1-2-3 finish in short-track speed skating as Ho-Suk Lee and Si-Bak Sung collided and crashed on the last turn of the 1,500m to give Ohno the silver. American J.R. Celski took the bronze. “The whole race there was a lot of contact, bumping, grabbing. It was a crazy race,” Ohno said during a news conference. “Typically in short track, there’s not supposed to be any contact, or very little. But it was an aggressive race. It was a fast race, and it turned out very well (for me).” To contact the reporters on this story: Erik Matuszewski in Vancouver, at matuszewski@bloomberg.net Christopher Donville in Vancouver at cjdonville@bloomberg.net .

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Bankers’ Stew Disguising CDO Scraps as Tasty Morsels: Book Excerpt

February 9, 2010

By Mark Gilbert Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) — Since its inception, the derivatives market has echoed the fairground hawkers’ call to “scream if you want to go faster.” Among the new derivatives, collateralized-debt obligations (CDOs) were particularly hot. To make a CDO, bankers bundle together a package of other kinds of securities, such as corporate bonds, asset-backed securities (ABSs) or credit-default swaps (CDSs) that are tied to company creditworthiness or mortgage performance. By carving the resulting collections into slices of differing quality, the creators can make the riskiest portions absorb any losses on the underlying assets first, thereby cushioning the higher-rated slices. No Clear Idea As with almost every other investment vehicle, CDOs were designed to reward investors according to the amount of risk they took. Those who bought lower-risk securities typically earned a smaller rate of return from successful investments than did those who took bigger risks, who received either a larger payoff if the investment performed well or nothing at all if the investment failed. Trouble was, no one had a clear idea of just how risky any given slice was or any sense of how to quantify and value that risk. In the same way that Liverpudlians disguise overripe meat and vegetables by cooking them to mush in a stew called scouse, investment banks, rating companies and plain old market peer pressure turned the investments inside most CDOs from inedible chunks of the financial markets into bite-size morsels palatable to pension fund trustees. No pension fund — and only a few other investors — would buy a structured transaction whose worth depends on what happens to the stock market and company creditworthiness, which way commodity prices go and whether the wind blows on a Sunday. They did, however, happily purchase CDOs that offered strong credit ratings and the promise of top-flight returns. Risk Appetite For the game to work, everyone involved had to turn a blind eye to the less-than-stellar track record assembled by the rating companies that assessed CDOs. And they did — until CDOs’ poor performance became impossible to ignore. Of the CDOs that started with AAA ratings in January 2002, 16 percent had lost that top grade by November 2004. Almost 14 percent of second-tier (AA-rated) securities were cut, and nearly 17 percent of CDOs with third-tier (A- rated) grades were cut. Those early CDOs, which typically contained vanilla corporate bonds, were hurt by a swift deterioration in average creditworthiness, combined with some hefty one-off defaults, including those of Enron Corp. and WorldCom Inc. Demand Soars Memories, though, proved short, and demand for CDOs soared as credit-rating cuts on corporate debt became rarer. (The economy was growing, and most companies had enough cash to cover their debts.) In 2004 in Europe alone, Moody’s rated $56 billion in European collateralized debt backed by default swaps. That was a 20 percent gain over the previous year, according to figures provided by the company at the start of 2005. By 2006, the derivatives printing presses were stamping out $503 billion of collateralized debt for the rating companies to grade, up from $274 billion in the previous year and $144 billion in 2004. In April 2007, Moody’s announced a fourth-quarter profit increase of 20 percent, as revenue from rating structured- finance transactions leaped to $251.5 million, a 44 percent gain over the same period in 2006. Almost half of Moody’s total 2007 sales of $583 million came from its structured-notes business, dwarfing the $115 million it made by analyzing company creditworthiness. Fatally Flawed Risk appetites increased, and CDOs became even more exotic and complicated. Structured-product specialists worked to broaden their appeal by tying CDO values to a broader range of underlying markets, some even creating theoretical bets that were tied to abstract prices. To grade these new financial instruments, rating companies used methodology that was fatally flawed from the start. It was based on induction, the process of inferring a general law or principle from the observation of particular instances. But the particular instances the rating companies chose did not incorporate the lessons of previous housing booms, nor the nonexistent histories of some new, theoretical bets. Instead, rating companies used the brief price history of the derivatives market as a benchmark to assess its likely future price performance. Indigestion The most egregious example of derivative market excess came with the invention of the constant-proportion debt obligation, known as a CPDO. In June 2006, Dutch bank ABN Amro Holding NV issued a 38-page marketing brochure describing a security called Surf: “the first CPDO; a breakthrough in credit investments.” CPDOs were the credit derivatives market’s hottest alchemical method for transforming plumbous yield premiums into the gold of market-beating returns. The marketing literature and associated research reports suggested that the newfangled securities were the holy grail of investing — heads, you win; tails, you don’t lose. CPDOs were an abstract bet on the likelihood of defaults in the corporate bond market. With their values tied to credit- default-swap indexes, the securities promised to deliver as much as 2 percentage points more than money market rates during their 10-year life spans. That was worth about 5.6 percent at the three-month money market rates that prevailed when CPDOs began attracting attention in November 2006. Alphabet Soup At the time, German government debt, deemed the safest fixed-income investments in the European markets, yielded just 3.7 percent annually. No wonder CPDOs looked irresistible. Those remarkable rates of return were made possible by the magic of derivatives, which leveraged the initial bet by a multiplier of 15. The leverage turned average punters into high rollers with the potential for fantastic gains — and losses. When times were good and a CPDO looked set to meet its payment obligations, sponsoring investment banks could reduce their market bets. When times got tougher, banks increased those wagers to boost the security’s net asset value. Credit-rating companies issued CPDOs top ratings for both interest and principal payments. The alphabet soup cooked up by the derivatives chefs — boil some CDOs, toss in a dash of ABSs and a soupcon of CDSs, season with CPDOs and serve with a garnish of overly optimistic ratings — was sufficiently toxic to poison the entire financial system. Just Deserts Capitalism itself ended up looking sickly and anemic. Belatedly, investors discovered the truth of one of billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s aphorisms: Unraveling a derivatives trade, the so-called Oracle of Omaha had said, was like trying to carry “a cat home by its tail.” Wall Street had invented a machine that could recycle just about anything that generated a cash flow. It had a growing, reliable source of supply from the housing market, sufficient to keep the merry-go-round spinning. And shifts in both the investment banking culture and the investing landscape created a willing coalition of buyers and sellers. To contact the writer: Mark Gilbert in London at magilbert@bloomberg.net

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Ellen Brown: Funding Public Health Care With a Publicly Owned Bank: How Canada Did It

January 25, 2010

The story goes that Churchill offered a woman 5 million pounds to sleep with him. She hedged and said they would have to discuss terms. Then he offered her 5 pounds. “Sir!” she said. “What sort of woman do you think I am?” “Madam,” he replied, “We’ve already established that. Now we’re just haggling over the price.” The same might be said of President Obama’s health care bill, which was sold out to corporate interests early on. The insurance lobby had its way with the bill; after that they were just haggling over the price. The “public option” was so watered down in congressional deal-making that it finally disappeared altogether. However, the bill passed both Houses by razor-thin margins, and the stunning loss on January 19 of the late Ted Kennedy’s Democratic seat to a Republican may force Obama to start over with his agenda. The good news is that this means there is still a chance of getting legislation that includes what Obama’s supporters thought they were getting when they elected him – a universal health care plan on the model of Medicare. That still leaves the question of price, but all industrialized countries except the United States have managed to foot the bill for universal health care. How is it that they can afford it when we can’t? Do they have some secret funding source that we don’t have? In the case of our nearest neighbor Canada, the answer is actually that they do. At least, they did for the first two decades of their national health service — long enough to get it up and running. Now the Canadian government, too, is struggling with a mounting debt to private banks at compound interest; and its national health service is suffering along with other public programs. But when Canada first launched its national health service, the funding came from money created by its own central bank. Canada’s innovative funding model is one that could still be followed by a President committed to deliver on his promises. The Canadian National Health Service Today Despite what you may have read in the corporate-controlled press, studies show that Canadians are generally happy with the care they receive; and they live an average of 2.5 years longer than Americans. They receive free health service for all diagnostic procedures, hospital and home care deemed medically necessary. People can choose the general practitioners they want; there are no deductibles on basic care; and co-pays are low or zero. Care continues despite changing jobs, and no one is excluded for having a pre-existing condition. Drug prices are negotiated by the government and are paid with public money for the elderly and homeless. For the rest of the population, cost-sharing schemes are arranged between private insurers and provincial governments, with most provinces requiring families to pay small monthly premiums (generally around $100 for a family of four). According to a 2007 study , the government pays for more than two-thirds of all Canadian health care costs. The US government, by contrast, pays for less than half of these costs. In 2007, the US spent a staggering 16% of GDP on health care compared to 10% in Canada. Health costs paid for out-of-pocket by Canadians amount to less than $300 per capita annually. But while that arrangement may look good to people in the U.S., it is only a shadow of Canada’s former system. The federal government’s contributions have decreased significantly , making up only slightly more than 20% of provincial medical care costs in 2002; and this money is largely borrowed by the Canadian government at interest. The portion not paid by the federal government must be borne by provincial governments through taxes. In its early years, however, Canada’s public health system was funded under a provision of the Bank of Canada Act allowing the Bank to create the money to finance federal, provincial, and municipal projects on a nearly interest-free basis. Money Created the Old-Fashioned Way – by the Government Rather than the Banks What was extraordinary about the Bank of Canada was not so much that it created money on its books as that it managed to wrest that power away from the private banking monopoly. All banks actually create the money they lend simply with accounting entries on their books. This was confirmed by Graham Towers , the first governor of the Bank of Canada, in hearings in 1935. Asked whether banks create “the medium of exchange,” he replied: That is right. That is what they are there for. . . . That is the banking business, just in the way that a steel plant makes steel. The manufacturing process consists of making a pen-and-ink or typewriter entry on a card in a book. That is all. The decision to fund government programs through a publicly-owned central bank was driven by a crisis much like that in the U.S. today. The country was in the throes of the Great Depression, and the money supply had radically contracted, causing businesses to close and unemployment to soar. Many Canadians blamed the private banks for making conditions worse by failing to extend loans. Prior to the 1935 Bank of Canada Act , private banks in Canada issued their own banknotes, which were regulated less by the government than by the Canadian Banker’s Association. The country’s largest private bank, the Bank of Montreal, served as the government’s de facto banker. By the eve of the Great Depression, interest on Canada’s public debt had reached one-third of government expenditures, and many officials believed that the government needed a central bank to come up with the money to pay its foreign debts. A Royal Commission was put together in 1933 which supported creating a Bank. A major debate then ensued over whether the central bank should be public or private. Much of the credit for the Canadian public banking model goes to a Canadian mayor named Gerald Gratton McGeer. He has been largely lost to history, and his book The Conquest of Poverty has been long out of print; but according to local historian Will Abrams , it was McGeer’s lengthy presentations to the Ottawa Common Banking Committee that clarified for bankers, economists and legislators how well a publicly-owned bank could work. McGeer’s model was based on the public banking system of Guernsey, an island state between Britain and France. The Guernsey government began issuing currency to pay for public works as far back as 1816. To this day, its system of publicly-issued money has allowed its inhabitants to maintain full employment and enjoy quality infrastructure, while paying modest taxes and without suffering from price inflation. The Bank of Canada became publicly-owned in 1938 under Prime Minister William Lyon Mackenzie King , a staunch supporter of McGeer’s vision for a public central bank. King maintained: Until the control of the issue of currency and credit is restored to government and recognized as its most conspicuous and sacred responsibility, all talk of the sovereignty of Parliament and of democracy is idle and futile. Once a nation parts with the control of its currency and credit, it matters not who makes that nation’s laws. Usury, once in control, will wreck any nation. What Can Be Done by a Government Issuing Its Own Currency Along with New Zealand, Australia and other progressive countries, Canada proceeded to fund infrastructure and social programs using national credit issued by its own central bank. The potential of this new credit tool for the Canadian economy was first demonstrated in World War II, in which Canada ranked fourth among the Allies for production of war goods. Under the Returning Veterans Rehabilitation Act of 1945, some 54,000 returning vets were given financial aid to attend university. The Department of Veterans Affairs provided another 80,000 vets with vocational training, and the Veterans’ Land Act helped 33,000 vets buy farmland. After the War, the Industrial Development Bank, a subsidiary of the Bank of Canada, was formed to boost Canadian businesses by offering loans at low interest rates. The Bank of Canada also funded many infrastructure projects and social programs directly. Under the 1950 Trans Canada Highway Act, Canada built the world’s longest road and the world’s longest inland waterway (a joint venture with the United States), as well as the 28-mile Welland Canal. People over 70, regardless of income or assets, received $40 a month from the government under the Old Age Security Act; and children under 15 got a tax-free allowance of $5-$8 a month. Canadians first began talking about a government-run health system during the Great Depression, but at that time the government felt it could not afford the service. Various provincial programs were launched in the 1940s, often to care for returning veterans. But it was not until 1957 that the Canadian federal health care system was actually initiated, with funding from the Bank of Canada. A Hospital Act was passed under which the federal government agreed to pay half its citizens’ bills at most hospitals; and a Diagnostic Services Act gave all Canadians free acute hospital care, as well as lab and radiology work. In 1966, the Hospital Act was expanded to cover physician services. In 1984, the Canada Health Act ensured that no medically-necessary care would include private fees or a charge to citizens. A Misguided Economic Policy Kills the Golden Goose For three decades, Canada paid for these projects through its own government-owned central bank, without sparking price inflation. Then in the late 1960s, a period of “stagflation” set in –rising prices accompanied by high unemployment. According to former Canadian Defense Minister Paul Hellyer , these elevated prices were the result of “cost-push” inflation, which could be traced to a combination of causes. Big labor unions, big government, and big corporations all negotiated top dollar for their contracts. In 1971, President Richard Nixon took the U.S. dollar off the gold standard, putting a strain on currencies in international markets. In 1974, the price of oil quadrupled, following a secret deal between Henry Kissinger and the OPEC countries in which the latter agreed to sell their oil only in U.S. dollars and to deposit the dollars in U.S. banks. Countries without sufficient dollar reserves had to borrow from these banks to buy the oil they needed, setting a debt trap that sprang shut when U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker raised interest rates to 20% in 1980. These increased costs drove up prices worldwide; but in Canada, price inflation was blamed on the government drawing money from its own central bank. Under the sway of the classical monetarist theory promoted by U.S. economist Milton Friedman, the Canadian government abandoned its successful experiment in self-funding and began borrowing from private international lenders. These private banks created “credit” on their books just as the Bank of Canada had done; but they lent it to the government at compound interest, creating a soaring national debt. Today, interest on the debt is the Canadian government’s single largest budget expenditure — larger than health care, senior entitlements or national defense. The provision of government-paid services is gradually being undermined by a combination of cuts to funding and provision of private services. Canada’s health care system is suffering along with the rest of the economy, necessitating the cutbacks and long waits for elective procedures described by critics. But the achievements of an earlier debt-free era attest to the sustainability of a system of public health care funded with money issued through the government’s own central bank. Goosing the Economy Again The Bank of Canada was created to end the hardships of the depression and give the government full responsibility for the health of the economy. As it turned out, the Bank also funded the health of the Canadian people. The U.S. government could fund universal health coverage in the same way. Ideally, it would nationalize the Federal Reserve or set up a separate government-owned bank for this purpose. However, the same result could be achieved by borrowing from the privately-owned Federal Reserve, which always rebates the interest to the government after deducting its costs. The federal debt is never paid off but is just rolled over from year to year. Interest-free loans rolled over from year to year are the equivalent of debt-free government-issued money. Contrary to popular belief, adding to the money supply in this way would not be inflationary . Inflation results when “demand” (“money”) exceeds “supply” (goods and services). In this case the new money would be used to create new goods and services, so supply would be kept in balance with demand. The result would particularly not be inflationary today, when we are suffering from a deflationary crisis. As in the Great Depression, money is not available to buy products and fund programs because the money supply itself has collapsed. The solution is not to slash programs but to put more money into the economy; and that can be done by authorizing the government to create the funds it needs through its own bank.

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Les Leopold: The Miracle on Wall Street that the Media Won’t Cover

January 4, 2010

“All told, the half dozen biggest banks have already made more than $50 billion in the first three quarters, and are on track to deliver a year of hefty profits — and bonuses — that could rival those of the boom years. The banking industry has throttled back lending for the last 15 months, draining more than $3 trillion of credit from the economy.” New York Times , January 1, 2010 Help me out here. I was taught that banks take in money from savers and lend it out to firms and individuals who need capital for investments: S = I, the more savings, the more investment in the real economy. But our largest financial institutions have decided that’s a ridiculous way to make money. First the borrower might not pay you back. (Especially when you do things like make loans to mortgage companies who made loans to dead people, which is the kind of thing that Wall Street was doing to super inflate their last investment bubble.) Therefore it makes more sense to hold on to the money than to lend it out. Second, you just can’t make all that much money from plain old lending. There are more lucrative ways to put your capital to work. So Wall Street is having a near record year in profits (and soon in bonuses as well). But they aren’t making loans. So how are they making all that money? New York Times reporters Graham Bowley and Eric Dash tell us that the money comes from “the ebullient stock and bond markets, which generated billions in trading revenue last year for Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street giants.” What does that mean? Good luck finding an answer in the New York Times or in any other major journal. The established media, one after the other, just assumes that it is possible to make tens of billions of dollars in a matter of months through “trading revenue.” Even Paul Krugman, the best of the bunch, never bothers to ask how that works. They never question whether or not our economy gains or suffers from that activity. They never question whether it is legitimate or just a sophisticated con game. They never ask whether it poses severe risks for the American economy and for tax payers who seem to be the piggy bank of last (not to mention first) resort for Wall Street. Instead, everyone seems to agree that you can make money hand over fist “through trading activities” and that’s ok even if we don’t know how it’s done, even if the real economy is an absolute mess. I mean take a look around you: State budgets are being slashed, mortgages foreclosed, millions unemployed, but if you’re a Wall Street bank you can make billions upon billions through legitimate “trading activities?” How is that possible? Let me level with you: I haven’t gotten it entirely figured out yet (but I will as I put together my next book). But here is my theory. The financial sector has turned into a vast financial bubble machine, semi-detached from the real economy. Bubbles aren’t an accident emerging from otherwise normal financial activity. Bubbles have become the very essence of modern finance. The latest asset bubble is being inflated with no-interest and low-interest Fed money and guarantees. Within that expanding bubble, large banks can leverage bets worth hundreds of billions of dollars into financial markets and compete with each other to make “trading” profits. And as long as the bubble is expanding, there are no losers on the other side of those trades … except for us suckers in the real economy who ultimately, and inevitably, will pay the costs when the bubble bursts. It’s a different world within that bubble and there’s a reason so many of our most ambitious college graduates want to go there. Financial corporations can earn money without creating real economic value. You can get paid ludicrous sums that have no connection with pay scales in the real economy. (A trader “earns” 100 times as much as the best neurosurgeon?) With your loose change you can hire all the lobbyists you want to make sure that regulators don’t mess with your serious money. And as the bubble grows and grows, your firm can grow larger and larger so that it can’t possibly be allowed to fail. This problem is much, much larger than perfidy of any one bank. You bust up Goldman Sachs and the bubble would still go on. (Although, I grant you, we’d feel better.) You pretend we can eliminate central banks and return to the gold standard, and the bubble would go on. It won’t stop — it can’t stop — until we redesign the financial sector from the bottom up. We are fond of saying that the financial sector should serve the real economy and not the other way around. But we’re really some place new. In our brave new billionaire bailout society, the core of the financial sector — the big banks — definitely no longer serves the real economy. There’s a one-way valve between the sectors: money from the real economy goes through to Wall Street, but doesn’t come back out. It operates under its own rules using cheap federal money and guarantees. I sure hope I’m wrong. I hope journalists and economists will set me straight about how Wall Street is making all those “trading” profits without lending money during the worst years since the Great Depression. But so far, none have even tried. Why is the answer important? We can’t rebuild our rotting financial structures until we know how they work. Passing around PR spin about “trading profits” only promotes the illusion that the financial bubble does something useful for the real world that the rest of us live in. Instead, we have to undermine the notion that the mysterious world of high finance creates needed products for real people instead of siphoning off enormous wealth for a handful of elites. We want to bust the bubbles and reclaim the wealth of our nation? It starts by pricking the ones in our minds. Les Leopold is the author of The Looting of America: How Wall Street’s Game of Fantasy Finance destroyed our Jobs, Pensions and Prosperity, and What We Can Do About It , Chelsea Green Publishing, June 2009.

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Sprott Says S&P 500 to Plunge Below March Low as Economy Fails to Rebound

December 30, 2009

By Matt Walcoff Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) — The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will collapse below its March lows as an expected rebound in economic growth fails to materialize, according to hedge fund manager Eric Sprott . The Toronto-based money manager, whose Sprott Hedge Fund returned about 496 percent in the past nine years as the S&P 500 lost 32 percent in Canadian dollar terms, said the index’s 66 percent rally since March 9 reflects investors misinterpreting economic data. He’s predicting the gauge will fall 40 percent to below 676.53, the 12-year low reached on March 9. “We’re in a bear market that will last 15 or 20 years, and we’ve had nine of them,” Sprott, chief executive officer of Sprott Asset Management LP, which oversees C$4.3 billion ($4.09 billion), said in an interview Dec. 18. Investors in Sprott’s funds have been rewarded by his holdings in gold, which has climbed 48 percent since the S&P 500 peaked in October 2007. The stock has since fallen 28 percent and declined 0.1 percent to 1,126.20 today for its first loss in seven sessions. Sprott said the Federal Reserve has kept bond yields and interest rates artificially low through its program to buy agency debt and mortgage-backed securities. The central bank expects the securities purchase program to finish by the end of March. Expiration of the program would reduce demand for fixed- income securities, forcing up bond yields and interest rates and hurting economic growth, Sprott said. Loss of Faith Should the Fed renew the programs while the U.S. government continues to run record deficits, investors will lose faith in the U.S. currency, he said. “If they announce another quantitative easing, trust me, the gold price will go up another 50 bucks that day,” he said. Gold futures fell 0.9 percent today to $1,098.10 an ounce in New York. Sprott has been bullish in gold and gold stocks , which are used as a hedge against inflation, since at least 2001, when the precious metal was trading below $300 an ounce. Gold futures have slipped 7.2 percent this month in New York as the U.S. dollar has rebounded on data that signaled a recovery in the U.S. economy. American payrolls fell by 11,000 in November, the fewest since the recession began, while retail sales gained 1.3 percent, twice the rate forecast in a survey of economists by Bloomberg, according to government reports released this month. Unjustified Optimism Sprott says investors have been too eager to see the data as signs of recovery. While the S&P 500 added 0.6 percent on the day of the employment report, a 23rd consecutive month of payroll contraction was no reason for optimism, he said. “We don’t have employment gains,” he said. “We have less of a decline. That’s a sign of weakness. The data is weak.” Sprott said gold is the only asset about which he remains positive in the short term. His C$1.42 billion Sprott Canadian Equity Fund — which is up 23 percent in five months — has 34 percent of its portfolio in mining stocks and another 39 percent in bullion as of Nov. 30. He said though he has no target price for the metal he doesn’t think it has reached a ceiling after quadrupling over the past eight years. “If you get into this thing where you’ve got to keep printing more and more and more, who knows about the price of gold?” he said. “It will be the new currency in due course.” Growth Potential Within the mining industry, Sprott prefers companies with smaller market capitalization, which he said have greater potential to grow. Since last year, Sprott’s firm has become the biggest shareholder of Avion Gold Corp. , which mines in Africa, and East Asia Minerals Corp. , which explores in Indonesia. Avion is undervalued for its projected 2010 production, he said. According to a Dec. 16 note from analyst Eric Zaunscherb of Canaccord Financial Inc., Avion was trading at 2.9 times its estimated 2010 earnings, compared with a multiple of 10.5 for its peers. Regarding East Asia Minerals, Sprott said, “I just get the feeling that these guys could find a multi-double-digit-million- ounce property.” East Asia completed a 2,000-meter, 14-hole drilling program at its largest Indonesian property that Canaccord analyst Wendell Zerb called “encouraging” and indicative of a large zone of gold mineralization. Over the next two quarters, East Asia is to drill 45 more holes at the site and begin drilling in four more locations in the country, Zerb said. Outside of the gold industry, Sprott owns shares of Wavefront Technology Solutions Inc. , a TSX Venture Exchange- listed company whose products are meant to increase oilfield production. Its technology could be used on at least two-thirds of the world’s oil wells, he said. Sprott, 65, founded his current firm in 2001 after divesting Sprott Securities, now Cormark Securities Inc., to its employees. To contact the reporter on this story: Matt Walcoff in Toronto at mwalcoff1@bloomberg.net .

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Edward Harrison: How effective will stimulus be in getting this economy moving?

December 23, 2009

This article originally appeared on my site Credit Writedowns As we approach the new year, I have decided to write a few thematic posts as a look back at some of the more important economic topics that this credit crisis has uncovered. The thinking is that tying posts together in a theme might give a better holistic view of a few themes than the posts do in isolation. The first topic is this: does fiscal or monetary stimulus work? That has been a consistent theme here at Credit Writedowns.

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Dan Dorfman: Limping Gold Poised to Run Again

December 20, 2009

Hey, what’s up with gold? Maybe it needs a flu shot, perhaps also one for swine flu. After barreling ahead about 130% in the past five years, 29% in the past two years, busting through $1,000 an ounce last September and then tacking on another 20% from there, the investment darling of the worry-warts has suddenly gone limp. Gold hit an all-time high of $1,227.50 an ounce on December 3, but then retreated to $1,102, largely reflecting a strengthening greenback. This past Friday, though, gold, widely viewed as a fear investment, had one of its better days, rising $6.10 to $1,113,50 on reports of an Iranian incursion into an Iraqi oil field. That’s up sharply from last year’s close of $880.80. For some thoughts on what’s going on with the precious metal and where it goes from here, I rang up Mark Leibovit, a dogged gold tracker who has demonstrated considerable prowess in timing moves in the metal, both up and down. One shining example of this prowess was Leibovit’s well-timed sell recommendation to his subscribers with gold in the low $1,200s, namely to those who were trading-oriented. He made that suggestion just a few days before the metal hit its all-time peak, which was quickly followed by a speedy 9% decline. “I think gold has entered its first serious corrective phase since the fall of 2008,” says Leibovit, an online investment adviser and editor of the VR Gold Letter in Sedona, Ariz. The last time I spoke to him, gold was in the high $1,100s. He made then what I thought was an outrageous statement. In brief, he said he doubted that we would ever see gold trade below $1,000 an ounce in our lifetime. Despite the metal’s slump, Leibovit is sticking to his guns. Sharp setbacks are quite characteristic of bull market corrections in gold, he says. In fact, Leibovit, who thinks gold is poised to run again, concedes the price of the metal could first be vulnerable to a further drop to the $1,020- $1,070 range. Why so? Because, he explained, of additional erosion to some further temporary strength in the dollar, the rise in long-term interest rates and fears the Euro could become unglued as dissenting countries threaten to break away from the union, which would make the dollar begin to look more attractive. Although he raises the possibility of additional declines in the price of gold, Leibovit thinks any drop say to the $1,020-$10.70 range would be short-lived since he believes a decrease to that level would be met with a flurry of buying. The key reason, as he sees it, “the dollar is terminal and will seek dramatically lower levels in the months and years ahead.” The gold party is just beginning, says Leibovit, who expects the metal to rise to $1,500 to $1,600 in 12 months, followed by a subsequent advance at some point to $3,000. (Bank of America recently predicted gold would hit $1,500 in 18 months). The basis of such gold advances is chiefly predicated on the U.S.’s serious financial heartaches, chief among them being: –A soaring $12 trillion of debt. –A ballooning $1.5 trillion budget deficit. –Non-non-stop debasement of our currency by round-the-clock money printing by the Federal Reserve. –A growing international lack of confidence in the greenback. –The prospects that a number of countries, among them China, Japan, India and Russia, may no longer buy U.S. treasuries. Likewise, Leibovit cites growing currency debasements globally, another significant gold plus. Leibovit also takes note of rumors of phony tungsten gold bars showing up around the world, possibly originating in China. If true, he says, it could wreak havoc in the gold market, as more and more holders of the metal would insist on physical delivery, which would force bullion dealers to replace any bogus gold bars with the real thing, in turn pushing gold prices even higher. If the dollar is becoming such a deadbeat, how does he explain away its recent rally. “Like the rally in the stock market,” he replied, “you’re looking at a mirage.” Incidentally, I caught up with Leibovit just prior to a dental appointment he had to have his crown replaced. “I assume it will be gold,” I said. His predictable response: “What else?” Costa Rican investment adviser Felix Heligmann, who manages about $88 million of his family’s and friends’ assets, has about 12% of the funds in gold and gold-related investments. He figures the economic, financial and political turmoil in the U.S. and its diminishing prestige on the world stage, which he says is sure to lead to more friction with America’s haters and international rebel rousers, are “money in the bank” reasons why the price of gold must go higher. San Francisco money manager Gary Wollin may offer one of the best strategies for playing gold. In a nutshell, put 5% of your assets in gold and pray it goes down in price because almost everything else will then go up. What do you think? E-mail me at Dandordan@aol.com.

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Russia’s Severstal Said to Consider IPO for Gold-Mining Business Next Year

December 16, 2009

By Ilya Khrennikov Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) — OAO Severstal , Russia’s largest steelmaker, is considering whether to sell shares of its gold- mining unit after the price of the metal rose to a record, said two people familiar with the situation. Severstal may hold an initial public offering late next year or in early 2011, said the people, who declined to be identified because the deliberations are private. Severstal created a separate company, OOO Severstal Gold, in October to manage assets including a controlling stake in Toronto-based High River Gold Mines Ltd. , one of the people said. The location for a potential IPO hasn’t been chosen, the people said. Severstal’s billionaire owner Alexei Mordashov , 44, vowed in 2007 to turn the company into Russia’s third-biggest gold miner. The gold unit is worth about $1.5 billion, said Barry Ehrlich , an analyst at Alfa Bank in Moscow. “Severstal is the only steelmaker I know of that has gold assets on its balance sheet,” said Denis Evstratenko , an associate director at Prosperity Capital Management Ltd. in Moscow, which invests in Russian companies and manages $3.5 billion of assets. “From the very beginning, Severstal planned to spin off the gold assets some day.” Russian companies may raise more than $20 billion selling shares in 2010 as they repair balance sheets and resume expansion after the deepest recession on record ends, Ruben Aganbegyan, president of Russian investment bank Renaissance Capital in Moscow, said in an interview last week. Foreign Acquisitions An attempt by Russia’s United Co. Rusal, the world’s largest aluminum producer, to sell as much as $3 billion of shares in Hong Kong this month failed to get approval from the city’s stock exchange. Severstal had $7.9 billion debt as of Sept. 30. It spent $4 billion since 2006 buying U.S. and European steel assets. The Cherepovets-based company’s foreign operations haven’t been profitable in four straight quarters, after steel prices fell. Severstal depositary receipts rose 56 cents, or 6.8 percent, to $8.85 as of 3:24 p.m. in London. They have tripled this year, valuing the steelmaker at $8.9 billion. The company has 13.8 million ounces of gold resources, according to an Alfa Bank in November. Output will be as much as 550,000 ounces this year, Severstal’s Chief Financial Officer Alexey Kulichenko said in a Sept. 7 conference call. Gold has jumped 28 percent this year as the weaker dollar boosted the metal’s appeal to investors seeking an alternative investment. It traded at a record $1,226.56 an ounce on Dec 3. Siberian Output Severstal paid 300 million euros ($437 million) in October 2007 for the Siberian gold assets belonging to investment company Arlan, according to Rob Edwards , an analyst at Renaissance Capital in Moscow. It also spent $325 million in 2007 and 2008 to acquire and delist London-based gold miner Celtic Resources Holdings Plc. Mordashov said in 2007 Severstal could hold an IPO or sell the unit. Severstal owns 50.1 percent of High River, which mines gold in Siberia and Burkina Faso. A 30 Canadian-cent-per-share offer made by Severstal to minority investors in High River failed in August after too few shareholders accepted the bid. High River closed yesterday at 50 cents. High River’s rally since August indicates investors are anticipating another, higher offer, said Vadim Ogneshchikov , a manager at Deutsche UFG Asset Management in Moscow. Instead of an IPO and buying out the High River minorities, Severstal could sell its other gold assets to High River, increasing the steelmaker’s stake in the Canadian company, Renaissance’s Edwards said. To contact the reporter on this story: Ilya Khrennikov in Moscow ikhrennikov@bloomberg.net

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Eric Schurenberg: The Case for Gold is Airtight. Which is Bad for Gold.

December 3, 2009

There’s no shortage of doubt about most investments these days. (Are emerging markets in a bubble? Are Treasuries a trap for the wary?) But there is no doubt about gold. The yellow metal keeps hitting records, this morning at over $1,200 an ounce. What’s more, it’s hard to find a reason for it NOT to go higher. That’s why it’s strange that Jim Grant, one of gold’s most eloquent long-term fans , is turning lukewarm on the hot metal. This is the sort of market that should make him feel utterly vindicated. But Grant is less a true-believing gold bug than confirmed contrarian. And when any asset seems pre-ordained to go higher, Grant gets nervous. Here’s what everyone can see: Gold generally outperforms when there is a lot of doubt about the economy and financial assets. We got that. Gold tends to shine when central banks are printing a lot of paper money. They are. Gold naturally does well in dollar terms when the dollar is falling against other currencies. Check that, too. Grant raises another scenario that’s even more bullish for gold. Most central banks keep a certain portion of their foreign reserves in gold. The share of reserves in gold is much higher in developed economies than in emerging ones. In the U.S, for example, gold accounts for 77% of total official foreign exchange reserves. In China, it’s just 1.6%. But what if the emerging countries wanted to close that gap? ( India, in fact, bought 200 metric tons of gold in early November , claiming it was diversifying its reserves.) Grant quotes his colleague Ian McCulley: For a thought experiment, consider the nine foreign exchange reserve holders in the world that are currently ‘underweight’ gold …The list would include Brazil, Russian, India and China, along with a handful of wealthier Asian countries. If the nine got it into their heads to boost their gold holdings to 10% of their reserves, they would have to acquire 11,174 metric tons; to 25%, they would need 33,254 metric tons. McCulley points out that there only 150,000 tons of gold above ground in the entire world. Grant concludes dryly, “You could talk yourself into some fancy bullion prices.” So why is he lukewarm? Grant doesn’t advance any arguments not to believe in gold for the long run, except to point out one thing: This is how markets look at the top . Investors always miss turning points. He quotes the impressive logic of gold bears just 10 years ago who patiently explained that gold was a relic-this was when it was trading at $250 an ounce. This was the same era in which the British Treasury worked out a seemingly ironclad argument for why it made sense to sell gold at $275. (CBS MoneyWatch columnist Larry Swedroe makes a similar point in this post .) Unlike stocks and bonds, gold produces no income, so it’s hard to ascribe any intrinsic value to it, as, say, Warren Buffett would to a security. It is more of a barometer of anxiety about the financial system, which is high. And, like any other asset, it can trade on its own momentum. In other words, as my colleague and former gold trader Jill Schlesinger puts it in this post , gold may have reached the point where it’s going up because it’s going up. The timing of all this is anyone’s guess, of course. But what you do know for sure is that fear eventually gives way to optimism and momentum always reverses. You can count on it. Grant’s conclusion, paraphrasing Churchill: …this may not be the beginning of the end of the gold bull market. But it is certainly the end of the beginning. Put less elegantly: You can believe in the long-term case for gold, as Grant does. But you don’t have to buy the stuff at $1,200 an ounce. Continue reading on CBS MoneyWatch.com

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Gold Buyers Nip at Ultimate Emotional Experience: David Pauly

November 30, 2009

Commentary by David Pauly Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) — Why is it no matter how much the world advances intellectually and technologically, people keep speculating on gold? John Neff , who managed Vanguard Group’s Windsor Fund for three decades, once offered this take on the precious metal: “It’s not an investment, it’s an emotional experience.” Emotions have been running high. Spot gold prices have risen 44 percent in the past 12 months. Gold futures reached a record $1,196.80 an ounce in New York last week before closing at $1,175.50 on Nov. 27. Gold has to keep rising if current buyers are to get any return. Direct investments in gold pay no interest. Some folks buy gold-mining stocks that pay dividends, but those are subject to declines in the companies’ other mining businesses. People are speculating in gold because the dollar has been falling and they think gold will hold its value. Others buy gold out of fear the money created as the U.S. props up its banking system will lead to inflation. Others want the metal simply because it’s increasing in value. Gold’s latest boom offers the U.S. government an opportunity to capitalize on the emotions of speculators and sell off its own horde of the metal. At today’s prices, the Federal Reserve holds about $300 billion in gold. The Fed’s balance sheet values the holding at just $11 billion, but this is based on a price of about $42 a troy ounce, the so-called official U.S. government price established in 1973. Something Useful In these times of trillion-dollar budget deficits, $300 billion may not seem like much. Still, that money could pay some of the costs of any health-care bill that comes out of Congress. Or it could help pay for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The U.S. probably would have to sell its gold a bit at a time so it didn’t cause a slump in prices, partially defeating the purpose of the exercise. U.S. holdings account for 27 percent of the gold held as reserves by central banks. On second thought, speculators are so hungry for gold, selling by the U.S. may not scare them. The government, of course, seems content to let its gold investment lay in storage. Some economists would be shocked at the idea of getting rid of the country’s stockpile, which they see as backing for the dollar. Do they think China and Japan buy hundreds of billions of dollar-denominated Treasury securities because America owns some gold? They buy because they’re sure the U.S.’s credit is good. Trade Tool Gold long ago was used by nations to balance their trade books. When the U.S. bought more abroad than it sold, it paid the difference in gold. It’s comical to think of that today. Once the U.S. economy gurgles again, the Fed’s $300 billion in gold would only cover about six months of the nation’s trade deficit. European and Asian companies don’t collect dollars for their goods because they expect a payoff in gold but because they think the currency has its own value. Neff, 78, still manages money for himself and his family in suburban Philadelphia. “I’m still in the hunt,” he says. The hunt has never taken the veteran investor anywhere near gold. While the experience has been exhilarating lately, “I’m not attracted to it,” Neff says. If only others were so sensible. ( David Pauly is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.) Click on “Send Comment” in the sidebar display to send a letter to the editor. Editors: Steven Gittelson, Steve Stroth To contact the writer of this column: David Pauly in Normandy Beach, New Jersey dpauly@bloomberg.net

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U.S. Stocks Fall as Technology Outlook Worsens; Intel, Dell Shares Tumble

November 21, 2009

By Sapna Maheshwari Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks fell, halting a two-week advance, as a worsening outlook for technology company earnings added to concern that the eight-month rally in equities outpaced the prospects for economic growth. Intel Corp . dropped 2.9 percent, the steepest retreat in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as Bank of America Corp. said computer-chip supply may overwhelm demand. Dell Inc. tumbled 7.2 percent after profit decreased by more than half. Stocks also slid as yields on Treasury three-month bills turned negative for the first time since financial markets froze last year. Metals producers rose as gold climbed to a record and the dollar fell. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.2 percent this week to 1,091.38 after gaining 5.5 percent in the first two weeks of November. The Dow average added 47.69 points, or 0.5 percent, to 10,318.16, led by Merck & Co. and Pfizer Inc. The Russell 2000 Index dropped 0.3 percent to 584.68. “It is normal for stocks to pull back after such a strong run,” said Lawrence Creatura , a Rochester, New York-based money manager at Federated Investors Inc., which oversees $390 billion. “It’s reasonable for investors to take a pause when they’re faced with such a broad variety of uncertainties.” Six of 10 industries in the S&P 500 fell this week. The index retreated from a 13-month high on Nov. 17 as yields on Treasury three-month bills turned negative amid concern the rally in risk assets has outpaced growth prospects. The S&P 500 has rallied 61 percent from a 12-year low on March 9, pushing its price to about 22 times the reported earnings of its companies, the highest level since 2002. Dell Retreats Dell fell 7.2 percent to $14.29. The company, which lost its standing as the world’s second-biggest computer seller to Acer Inc., reported a 54 percent drop in third-quarter net income to $337 million, or 17 cents a share, as sales slid 15 percent to $12.9 billion. Analysts on average predicted profit of 27 cents a share and sales of $13.1 billion. Intel , the world’s largest chipmaker, and Texas Instruments Inc. , the second-biggest U.S. chipmaker, dropped after being cut to “neutral” from “buy” at Bank of America. The bank cut its outlook for the semiconductor industry to “negative” from “positive,” sending technology stocks to the steepest drop of 10 industries in the S&P 500. Intel lost 2.9 percent to $19.24 and Texas Instruments slid 2.8 percent to $24.74. SanDisk Falls SanDisk Corp. , the world’s largest maker of flash-memory cards used in digital cameras and mobile phones, dropped 7.8 percent to $20.24. Technology shares have rallied 52 percent so far this year, compared with a 21 percent gain in the S&P 500. The shares have also outperformed the S&P 500 since March 9, advancing 76 percent. Raw-materials producers rallied 1.4 percent, the second- most among the 10 industries in the S&P 500, as commodity prices rose, led by gold and copper. “If the economy is turning, which it is, industrials and materials should continue to do better,” said David Katz , who oversees $1.2 billion at Matrix Asset Advisors in New York. “Materials might be the better gainer because of their gold exposure.” Barrick Gold Corp. rose 2.5 percent to $43.98 and Freeport- McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. added 3.7 percent to $84.57 as bullion climbed to a record $1,153.40 an ounce on Nov. 18. The precious metal has fallen only once this month as investors speculated the dollar will extend its steepest plunge since 1986, boosting gold’s appeal as an alternative investment. Commodities Rally The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials added 2 percent, rebounding from three weeks of losses. The gain outpaced a 0.4 percent advance in the Dollar Index , a six- currency gauge of the currency’s strength. Consumer discretionary stocks dropped 1.1 percent, the second-steepest decline among 10 industries. Target Corp. fell 3.1 percent to $47.46 as the second-biggest U.S. discount chain said it is planning for a “modest” decrease in fourth-quarter comparable-store sales. Home Depot Inc. slumped 0.6 percent to $27.18 after the largest U.S. home-improvement retailer posted third-quarter profit that fell 8.9 percent as homeowners curbed large purchases and professional contractors spent less. Sprint Nextel Corp. climbed the most in the S&P 500, rising 21 percent to $3.76. The third-largest U.S. mobile-phone carrier rallied after it finished paying off a $4.5 billion loan, helping lower expenses to counter a shrinking subscriber base. Earnings Beat Estimates About 80 percent of S&P 500 companies that have reported third-quarter results beat analysts’ predictions, including Sears Holdings Corp., Ltd. Brands Inc. and GameStop Corp. this week. That exceeds the record pace of 72.3 percent for the period ended in June, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Hewlett-Packard Co. and Deere & Co. are among 10 companies in the S&P 500 scheduled to report results next week. A report will probably show sales of existing U.S. homes increased in October to the highest level in more than two years, spurred in part by a tax credit that lured first-time buyers, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Exchanges will be closed on Nov. 26 for the Thanksgiving holiday and trading will end at 1 p.m. New York time the next day. The benchmark index for U.S. stock options fell 5 percent, declining for the third straight week. The VIX, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, dropped to 22.19. The index, which is known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, is down from a record 80.86 in November 2008 yet above its 20.28 average over its 19-year history. To contact the reporters on this story: Sapna Maheshwari at smaheshwar11@bloomberg.net .

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Dan Dorfman: The Wildest Gold Forecast Yet

November 20, 2009

Wild, off-the-wall gold forecasts — some of which have proved to be anything but wild or off the wall — are a dime a dozen. Here’s one that floored me; maybe it’ll floor you, too. First, the last thing I want to do is sound like a broken record after having written a very recent piece on the global buying rampage in gold. Nonetheless, I felt compelled to do a fast follow-up on the ongoing skyrocketing investment demand for the precious metal after hearing what has to vie for the mother of all gold forecasts. No, it’s not one of those flamboyant predictions that gold — which topped $1,000 an ounce in early September and recently sprinted to a new all-time high of $1,153, is headed for the moon. Rather, it’s an equally shocking assertion from a market-savvy veteran online investment adviser, Mark Leibovit, who not only sees the metal ballooning to new highs, but tells me “I doubt that we’ll ever see $1,000 gold again.” Why not? Because of such catalysts, he explains, as the sinking dollar and the debasing of currencies by 24/7 money-printing around the globe (both of which point to higher inflation down the pike). Yet another catalyst for a higher gold price is a significant flip-flop by central banks, which have switched from gold sellers to gold buyers. As a result, Leibovit says, something above $1,000 an ounce is shaping up as a new floor for the metal. What makes his forecast so wild is that even a number of gold buffs openly concede that the meteoric rise in the price of the metal–which is hitting new highs weekly and is up more than 100% in the past five years — leaves the door open for a sizable correction that could knock gold down to the $850-$900 range. Some pros, in fact, contend that gold — which pays no interest or dividends — is now in a bubble stage. Leibovit, editor of the VR Gold Letter in Sedona, Ariz., disagrees, contending we’re in the early stages of a new commodities boom, both, metals and agricultural, because of the global infrastructure craze. “The world is booming, unlike the U.S., which is in a slump because of the idiotic bankers,” he says, and he figures gold will be a major beneficiary of the commodities boom. At some point, Leibovit sees hedge funds piling into gold big time, which, he believes, will create a speculative bubble and drive gold next year to $1,500 to $2,000 an ounce. On an inflation-adjusted basis, he feels gold should actually be selling at $2,300, a price that he expects will eventually be realized. “Gold is in the catch-up process,” he says. What’s more, he views his projected price increases as a prelude to an even bigger eventual rise to $3,000 to $5,000 an ounce. “The world.” as Leibovit sees it, “is moving away from paper currencies,” which means, he says, “the price of gold has nowhere to go but up.” What about the negatives? Other than periodic profit-taking, Leibovit doesn’t see any significant near-term risks. He does note, though, that more gold supply is on the horizon because of the rising prices. His favorite gold play is actual ownership of the physical metal itself, such as gold bars and gold coins, and he recommends their purchase through well known bullion dealers like Monex and Blanchard. Many gold pros are quick to recommend buying the actual physical metal itself through the purchase of ETFs (exchange-traded funds) that actually hold stakes in gold. But Leibovit is not keen on this strategy, noting that in ETFs, you actually don’t own gold itself; rather, you own a promise. Meanwhile, in London, Harrod’s Department store is selling gold bars and gold coins. With the metal racking up new highs almost every few days, some pros, among them veteran investment advisor and long time gold bull, Richard Russell, wonder how long it will be before gold hits the counters of U.S. department stores. Pointing to a hefty short position in gold, Russell, editor of the Dow Theory Letters , thinks the gold buyers could overpower the gold shorts and drive them against the wall. If that happens, he says, “the shorts will panic and we’ll see gold doing an imitation of the July 4th fireworks.” Let me know what you think. Write me at Dandordan@aol.com

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Peel Exploration Limited (ASX:PEX) Completes The Settlement Of May Day Gold-Lead-Zinc Acquisition

November 20, 2009

Peel Exploration Limited (ASX:PEX) Completes The Settlement Of May Day Gold-Lead-Zinc Acquisition

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Barrick, Newmont Mining Profits Beat Estimates on Higher Prices for Gold

October 29, 2009

By Rob Delaney Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) — Barrick Gold Corp. and Newmont Mining Corp. , the world’s largest gold producers by revenue, reported third-quarter adjusted profits that beat analysts’ estimates because of higher prices and efforts to contain costs. Barrick’s third-quarter profit excluding one-time items was 54 cents a share, the Toronto-based company said today in a statement. That topped the 46-cent average estimate of 23 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Newmont’s per-share profit of 79 cents beat the 55-cent average estimate of 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales rose 49 percent to $2.05 billion, the Greenwood Village, Colorado-based company said. Barrick is “keeping the cash costs low,” said Barry Schwartz , a portfolio manager with Baskin Financial Services Inc. in Toronto, who helps manage C$315 million ($293 million) and has 130,000 of the company’s shares. “The story of Barrick is a company that has increasing gold production in the next few years and has good control over its cash costs.” Barrick Chief Executive Officer Aaron Regent is eliminating bets against gold’s value and increasing reserves to benefit from gold prices that surged to a record $1,072 an ounce in New York this month. Newmont is increasing output mainly from its Boddington mine, an Australian project the company bought from partner AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. for $1.09 billion this year. “Newmont had a very good track record through last year and so far this year in maintaining their cost guidance,” David Haughton , an analyst at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said in an Oct. 26 telephone interview. Shares Rise Barrick climbed C$2.21, or 6 percent, to C$39.25 at 11:21 a.m. in Toronto Stock Exchange trading. The shares declined 17 percent this year before today. Newmont rose $1.54, or 3.7 percent, to $43.04 in New York. The rise of the gold price helped the companies’ revenue increase more than the volume of metal sold. Barrick’s sales rose 12 percent to $2.1 billion even as its ounces sold fell by about 50,000 ounces. Newmont’s sales surged 49 percent while it sold 4.4 percent more ounces of gold. “Every portfolio should contain some gold or gold equities, and our valuation metrics point to Barrick, Goldcorp and Newmont as the most undervalued stocks,” John Bridges , a JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst in New York, said in an Oct. 26 note to clients. Barrick’s third-quarter sales rose 12 percent to $2.1 billion, in line with the average estimate in the Bloomberg survey. The average price of gold sales rose 11 percent from a year earlier to $971 an ounce, the company said. Production Costs Barrick’s production costs were $456 an ounce, which the company said was on plan. Those costs compare with $452 in the prior period and $466 a year earlier. Barrick reported a net loss of $5.35 billion, or $6.07 a share, which compares with net income of $254 million, or 29 cents, a year earlier. The loss resulted from a $5.7 billion charge to eliminate fixed-price contracts and an expense taken because the company decided not to exercise its right to increase its stake in the Sedibelo platinum project in South Africa. Newmont net income climbed to $388 million, or 79 cents a share, from $191 million, or 42 cents, a year earlier. Newmont’s average gold-production cost fell 13 percent from a year earlier to $404 an ounce, the company said today. “Our continued focus on cost containment resulted in a 13 percent improvement in gold cost of sales per ounce,” Newmont Chief Executive Officer Richard O’Brien said today in a statement. Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. , the Canadian gold producer that’s quadrupling output, fell in Toronto a day after reporting a third-quarter loss of $17 million on a currency translation charge and a slower-than-expected production ramp-up. Agnico plunged C$4.25, or 6.4 percent, to C$62.35, in Toronto trading. The shares rose 6.1 percent this year through yesterday. To contact the reporter on this story: Rob Delaney in Toronto at robdelaney@bloomberg.net .

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Financier Reijtenbagh to Sell $40 Million of Monet, Picasso, Degas Works

October 21, 2009

By Lindsay Pollock Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) — A collection of 39 major modern and Impressionist artworks, including paintings by Monet, de Chirico, Degas and Picasso, will be sold by Dutch financier Louis Reijtenbagh , who resolved three legal claims earlier this year. The 39 artworks are estimated to fetch about $40 million as part of Sotheby’s New York auctions Nov. 4 and 5. Reijtenbagh settled lawsuits with JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Credit Suisse Group AG that concerned loans to the financier. Reijtenbagh also resolved a claim on his artworks by ABN Amro Bank NV by agreeing to provide extra collateral for a loan. “It seems like it’s one of the first group of pictures appearing at auction as a distress sale” since the financial crisis took hold, said private New York dealer Franck Giraud. The Dutch financier confirmed in a statement provided by Sotheby’s that the art belongs to Monte Carlo Art SA, a Reijtenbagh family entity that controls the art, and was “previously pledged either to AMRO Bank Luxembourg SA or J.P. Morgan Chase as collateral for loans,” said the statement. “I am please to report that these loans have been fully satisfied and these works will be sold on behalf of Monte Carlo unencumbered of liens or claims from these or other banks.” The collection includes one of the sale’s priciest lots: Dutch painter Kees van Dongen’s Matisse-like 1920 “Young Arab,” featuring a bare-chested youth. The painting is estimated to fetch up to $10 million. London’s Daily Telegraph identified Reijtenbagh as the seller in an Oct. 20 article. ‘He Bought Very Well’ Geneva-based dealer Jacques de la Beraudiere was one of four main dealers who sold to the collector. He confirmed that the works in Sotheby’s catalog belong to Reijtenbagh. “I met him the first time in Paris and we became very good friends. He bought very well,” said de la Beraudiere, who is optimistic about the auction. “The market can absorb the collection easily. The estimates are not that high.” Reijtenbagh began buying from the late Robert Noortman , a dealer in Dutch Old Masters. He also patronized the Paris-based galleries Cazeau Beraudiere and Hopkins-Custot, and Montreal’s Landau Gallery. He also bought at auction. He purchased Degas’s circa 1882- 1888 oil-on-paper of jockeys on horseback at the 2004 auction of property of John Hay Whitney, paying $4.37 million. The work is now estimated to fetch between $4 million and $6 million. Dealers say this isn’t Reijtenbagh’s first sale at auction. He sold art last June at Sotheby’s in London. Reijtenbagh’s daughter-in-law, Marlies Verhoeven Reijtenbagh, works at Sotheby’s in New York. Reijtenbagh, a former doctor turned investor, has homes in New York’s Trump Tower, Belgium and Monaco. His Plaza Group is based in Antwerp. He toured the Art Basel art fair in Switzerland this past June, telling dealers he’d be back in a few years as a buyer. Watch Auction Meanwhile, an 1885 gold Swiss pocket watch customized for a 19th-century New York City beer baron fetched $25,000 yesterday during Sotheby’s sale of Important Watches, Clocks and Automata in New York. The watch had been estimated to fetch up to $12,000. The entire 161-lot sale tallied $3.15 million, well over the $2 million the presale low estimate. About 90 percent of the lots found buyers, a strong showing these days. “They had excellent results,” said New York watch dealer Jeff Morris of J&P Timepieces, who said he bought eight items at the sale. “It’s not a big sale, but it was a very good outcome.” European, Asian and U.S. buyers were active, according to Sotheby’s Aaron Rich, head of the New York watch department, with more than usual participation from buyers in Hong Kong and Taiwan. “It’s an active market,” said Rich. “There are a lot of clients waiting to buy as soon as people pull the trigger and are ready to sell.” The sale included watches by makers including Rolex, Cartier, Patek Philippe and A. Lange & Sohne. The day’s top lot was an ornate late-18th-century Swiss gilt-brass and ormolu clock, made for export to the Chinese market, resting on four gold-toned elephants. Estimated to sell for as much as $90,000, the clock sold for $278,500 to a private U.S. collector. The pocket watch was originally owned by George Ehret, a German-born owner of Hell Gate Brewing on the Upper East Side of Manhattan. He was given it on his 50th birthday by his wife and nine children, whose enamel portraits appear on the watch. The sale’s priciest wristwatch was a mint 1949 Patek Philippe gold perpetual calendar, one of only about 200 ever produced. The watch sold for $92,500, at the top of a $70,000 to $90,000 presale estimate. To contact the reporter on the story: Lindsay Pollock in New York at lindsaypollock@yahoo.com .

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Silver May Outpace Gold After Years as Bullion’s Bridesmaid: Chart of Day

October 20, 2009

By Kim Kyoungwha and Lee J. Miller Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) — Silver may outpace gold through mid- 2010 as a recovering global economy increases industrial demand, said Citigroup Inc. The CHART OF THE DAY shows the ratio of gold to silver. An ounce of gold bought 59.4 ounces of silver on Oct. 14 when gold for immediate delivery jumped to a record $1,070.80 as investors sought an alternative to the weakening dollar and a hedge against inflation. That compares with 48.5 ounces when gold first exceeded $1,000 on March 13 last year and 43.6 on April 19, 2006, the lowest level in the past 10 years. “Silver is set to benefit from stronger gold, but also the improving outlook for global industrial production,” said David Thurtell , a London-based analyst at Citigroup, in an interview. “I think the gold-to-silver ratio can get to the low 50s.” When gold reached $1,000 for the first time, silver traded above $20 an ounce, compared with $17.82 now. Silver has already climbed 56 percent this year, more than double the 21 percent advance in gold. Gold is on course for its ninth straight annual gain while the U.S. Dollar Index , a gauge against six major currencies, has fallen 7.4 percent this year. “The dollar’s decline has been pushing gold to a series of record highs,” Harjas Wadhwa, vice president for New Delhi- based AUM Capital Market Private Ltd., said. “If gold moves higher from here, you’d expect silver to outperform,” he said. “It has a lot of catching up to do” since “bullion’s bridesmaid” was more than $20 an ounce when gold first surpassed $1,000, he said in a report. Industrial applications such as electrical switches and batteries accounted for 50.3 percent of silver demand in 2008, compared with 40 percent five years earlier and 51 percent in 2007, according to The Silver Institute . Use in jewelry comprised 18 percent, followed by photography with 12 percent. “Net investment” about doubled from 2007, to 5.7 percent of demand, according to the Washington D.C.-based institute. The world economy will expand 3.1 percent next year after shrinking 1.1 percent in 2009, the International Monetary Fund forecasts. (To save a copy of the chart, click here.) To contact the reporter on this story: Kyoungwha Kim in Singapore at Kkim19@bloomberg.net Lee J. Miller in Bangkok at lmiller@bloomberg.net

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Novel Nanosphere Test Detected Prostate Cancer Recurrence Early in Study

October 19, 2009

By Nicole Ostrow Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) — Nanosphere Inc. ’s novel technology using gold nanoparticles may predict the recurrence of prostate cancer earlier than current blood tests, a pilot study found. In an 18-patient study, the new method detected a protein specific to prostate cancer in 86 percent of blood samples compared with 25 percent for conventional tests, according to research published online today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences . The company attaches antibodies to the gold, producing what Nanosphere calls probes for “ultrasensitive” detection of proteins that may otherwise go undiscovered. About 70,000 men a year undergo surgery to remove diseased prostates and 40 percent will have their cancer return, according to C. Shad Thaxton , the lead author. If the test works in larger studies, doctors may be able to diagnose recurrence of the disease several years earlier than what now is the norm, the researchers said. “It gives them a whole new tool to help people who have just undergone radical surgery for a potentially lethal disease,” Chad Mirkin , a study author and a professor of chemistry at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois, said in a telephone interview on Oct. 16. “It gives them the ability to figure out if the patient is in good shape sooner than the commercial tools do, so you can take the weight of the world off their shoulders.” Mirkin, Thaxton and Norm Smith, also an author of the study, are Nanosphere shareholders, according to a statement from Northwestern. Mirkin was a founder of the company and provides it with research and development services, according to a Nanosphere regulatory filing. The research was sponsored by the National Cancer Institute , based in Bethesda, Maryland. Cause of Death Prostate cancer is the most common malignancy other than skin cancer to occur in U.S. men, and is the second-leading cause of cancer death, behind lung tumors, according to the Atlanta-based American Cancer Society. This year, more than 190,000 men will develop prostate cancer and more than 27,000 will die from the disease, according to the nonprofit group. The new test, developed by Northwestern and licensed by Northbrook, Illinois-based Nanosphere, finds previously undetectable levels of a protein in the blood called prostate- specific antigen, or PSA, a marker to determine cancer. After surgery to remove the prostate gland , patients typically have PSA levels too low to be seen using conventional tests. The prostate is a walnut-sized gland, part of the male reproductive system. It is located below the bladder, where urine is stored, and surrounds the urethra, where urine passes from the body. Glands Removed The pilot study looked at blood samples collected over a number of years from 18 men who had their prostates removed as part of their treatment. The researchers found PSA in 102 of 118 blood samples using the new analysis compared with 30 of the samples using tests currently available. In the study, nine men remained cancer free, while the other nine had their cancer return, said Thaxton, an assistant professor of urology at Northwestern. For seven of the nine whose cancer was in remission, the nanoparticle test found their PSA levels were low and not rising, while the conventional test didn’t detect the protein, he said. It also picked up when the PSA levels for the other two men started climbing. Of those whose cancer returned, the nanoparticle analysis spotted rising PSA levels in two of the men about a year earlier than conventional tests, Thaxton said. “We’ve taken this test and shown that almost everyone has a PSA level” after surgery, Mirkin said. “We’ve created a new zero. Then we can follow these people and see if it’s staying the same or if it’s rising.” Nanoparticle Probes The technology is based on gold nanoparticle probes, which have DNA and antibodies that can recognize and bind to PSA in the blood. Nanosphere also is developing genetic tests using the technology to diagnose illnesses such as heart disease and herpes. The company markets tests for influenza A and B and respiratory syncytial virus , for gene disorders linked to blood clots and to detect a possible side effect from the blood thinner warfarin, according to Nanosphere’s Web site. Nanotechnology is the use of materials with dimensions of 1 to 100 nanometers, according to the U.S. government’s National Nanotechnology Initiative , based in Arlington, Virginia. A nanometer is one-billionth of a meter. A sheet of paper is about 100,000 nanometers thick. Nanotechnology is used in products that add strength to lightweight tennis rackets and make eyeglasses harder to scratch, according to the initiative’s Web site. The scientists are conducting a similar study in 260 patients to determine how much earlier the Nanosphere test detects PSA levels. “The broader implication of this work is that greater sensitivity for these types of biomarkers enables much earlier detection of disease when presumably you can treat it much more successfully,” said William Moffitt III , president and chief executive officer of Nanosphere, in a telephone interview on Oct. 16. To contact the reporter on this story: Nicole Ostrow in New York at Nostrow1@bloomberg.net

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Greenwich, Connecticut, Cashes In Jewelry as Gold Reaches $1,000 an Ounce

October 16, 2009

By Tom Moroney and Brian K. Sullivan Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) — The people of Greenwich, Connecticut, the hedge-fund capital of the U.S., know a golden opportunity when they see one. With the price of gold futures reaching a record $1,072 an ounce this week, they’re carting watches, bracelets, rings and necklaces to a Hyatt Regency hotel off Interstate 95. There, representatives of Cash for Gold are writing checks for the precious metal. “Once the price of gold went over $1,000, I knew it was the time to do it,” said Joy Kruger, a real estate agent who sold her unwanted jewelry yesterday for $2,700. Greenwich and other well-to-do towns are the best places for mining used gold, said Anthony Holdampf, president of Westport, Connecticut-based Cash for Gold. While the company has licenses to operate in 31 communities in Connecticut, California, New Jersey and Florida, it’s narrowing its focus to the wealthiest ones and has set up camp in Greenwich for more than a year. “They show up dressed very fancy, maybe wearing their Rolexes,” Holdampf said. Affluent sellers have “twice as much gold as anyone else, and plenty of gold they could get rid of.” Greenwich, 27 miles (43 kilometers) northeast of New York City, has a population of 60,000 and median household income of $117,857, according to U.S. Census data. That compares with $50,007 nationally. Cash for Gold buys gold for about 60 percent to 90 percent of the price on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, depending on the purity, Holdampf said. He does business under different names in various locations, and isn’t connected to the company called Cash4Gold that runs national television ads. Gold futures in New York have closed at more than $1,000 an ounce every day since Sept. 30. Today, the price was $1,053. Church Fundraisers Churches are taking advantage of gold’s rise, too. Holdampf will organize and run a gold trade-in and give the church 20 percent of what he pays sellers. He has done events at four Connecticut churches, as well as St Vincent’s College in Bridgeport. St. Ann Roman Catholic Church in Bridgeport held a gold fundraiser in June with Holdampf. “This hugely successful event netted our parish $5,050 for which I am profoundly grateful,” the Reverend Peter Towsley, the pastor, wrote in a letter posted on the company’s Web site. Towsley couldn’t be reached for comment yesterday. Holdampf said he was unprepared for the response at his first cash-for-gold event in Greenwich. In four days, 160 people sold him a total of $97,000 of gold, a record that hasn’t been topped in neighboring towns including Darien, Westport and New Canaan, which are known collectively as the Gold Coast for their wealth and proximity to the shoreline. Five-Day Stay The success of that event led him to schedule five-day weeks in Greenwich through the end of the year. On average, 25 to 30 people show up each day with about $500 of gold each. Marlene Coelho, 55, a security officer from Stamford, cashed in some jewelry for $203 yesterday. “I’m going to deposit it,” she said. “I need the money in the bank.” Jill Kalman, 47, of Norwalk, walked in with baubles including a locket from her college days and a ring of her father’s. “I’m trying to fund a dream,” the communications consultant said of her plan to find voiceover work. “I wanted to be the next Meredith Viera, but I am getting a little long in the tooth.” Morton R. Shapiro, 72, of Stamford and his wife, Joyce, brought $225 of jewelry in disrepair. Shapiro said he has followed the gold market his entire life and thinks the price will continue heading up. He counsels against selling items with sentimental value. Some Crying “I’ve seen people cry,” although sellers usually don’t bring family heirlooms, Holdampf said. “It’s more like the $2,000 bracelet that’s never worn and in a safety-deposit box somewhere.” Jewelers scratch each piece with a testing stone and use acid tests to determine whether the item is gold and of what quality. The gold is sold to a refiner who melts it into blocks for sale, said Costell Trandu of Cash for Gold. Peter Suchy of Suchy Jewelers in Stamford said customers would be better off bringing their precious metals to a local business like his. He said having a long-term relationship means he can give them better advice on what to sell and when. “We are here to provide a service to the community, and we’re staying here,” Suchy said. Holdampf said he sees his work as a service for “super- wealthy” people who might be embarrassed to take their gold to a pawn shop. “Times are hard and everybody is affected, not just the middle class,” Holdampf said. He said Newton, Massachusetts, may be next: median household income, $104,014. To contact the reporters on this story: Tom Moroney at tmorrone@bloomberg.net ; Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net

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Lihir Studies Paying First Dividend Since 2003 as Prices, Output Increase

October 13, 2009

By Liza Lin and Jesse Riseborough Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) — Lihir Gold Ltd. , the second-largest gold mining company on the Australian Stock Exchange, is considering paying its first dividend since 2003 after output and prices rose. “We are closer now than ever to start paying out regular dividends,” Chief Executive Officer Arthur Hood said today in a phone interview, citing gains in the gold price and better performance at its operations. “Now is the time you should be rewarding shareholders with potentially a combination of dividends or capital returns or both.” Gold for immediate delivery rose to a record yesterday as investors bought the precious metal to hedge against a lower dollar and a pickup in inflation. Port Moresby-based Lihir, which owns mines in Australia, Papua New Guinea and Ivory Coast, has forecast record production this year. The company may return to paying a dividend “in the not too distant future,” Hood said, without specifying a more precise timeframe. The company last paid a dividend of 2 cents per share in 2003. Lihir jumped 2.8 percent to A$3.29 at 12:45 p.m. Sydney time on the Australian stock exchange. The stock has risen 9.3 percent this year and has a market value of A$7.8 billion ($7.1 billion). The S&P/ASX 200 Index has climbed 30 percent this year. “We’ve been driving down our cost of operation over the last few years so we’ve got very high margins,” Hood said in a separate interview on Bloomberg television. Lihir produced a record 612,022 ounces of gold in the half- year to June 30 and has forecast output of between 1 million and 1.2 million ounces for the full year. Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,066.43 an ounce at 12:46 p.m. in Sydney. It touched a record of $1,068.63 yesterday. To contact the reporters on this story: Liza Lin in Singapore at llin15@bloomberg.net ; Jesse Riseborough in Canberra at jriseborough@bloomberg.net

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Nathan Lewis: New Highs for Gold

October 9, 2009

“New all time highs.” How many things can you say that of? Stocks? Real estate? Commodities? No, no and no. I’m talking about gold. This price action grabs attention. People like to bet on a winner. The gold market is highly politicized. Official intervention is chronic. Governments understand that a “rising gold price” is a universal signal of macroeconomic instability. That is why the mainstream media is being saturated right now with “don’t buy gold” stories. Did you notice? For example, here’s one from the Wall Street Journal: Gold is still a lousy investment. Here’s another one: Beware the gold bubble Gold is rising because the dollar is falling. The dollar is falling primarily because of the extra-super-easy monetary policy favored by the Federal Reserve. Gold itself is — as I’ve said previously — stable in value. It’s not going up or down, it’s the currency you’re comparing against gold. Whenever there are economic difficulties, governments turn to monetary manipulation to bail them out of their problems. Of course this has consequences. From 1789 to 1932, the U.S. dollar maintained the same value. It was 1/20th of an ounce of gold in 1800, and it was still 1/20th of an ounce of gold in 1932. A $20 coin was literally made of an ounce of gold. The U.S. had a hyperinflation in the 1780s. Afterwards, people were very serious about keeping their currency stable. Here’s the similar chart, but inverted so that a declining dollar value is represented by a downward line. Ever since the 1930s, we’ve had an ideology of monetary manipulation. Beginning in 1933, we embarked on a series of experiments: when recession threatens, what if we monkey with the currency in the form of interest rate manipulation and “quantitative easing”? The result of this tomfoolery since 1933 is that the dollar is worth 1/50th of its prior value, or 1/1000th oz. of gold. Maybe the next 50:1 decline will happen faster. Then, it would take $50,000 to buy an ounce of gold. There is a whole library of economic justifications for this monetary manipulation. The short-term effects can feel good. What the economists would really like is to be able to have an “extra super easy” monetary policy with no consequences. All of the upside and none of the downside. Crystal meth abusers probably have similar fantasies. What this means in practice is: an extra-super-easy monetary policy, but no decline of the dollar vs. gold. This can actually be maintained for brief periods. Recently, the government’s helper banks — primarily JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs — have been keeping a lid on the gold market by selling futures around $1000/oz. (Yes, there is some quid-pro-quo for the obscene banker bailouts.) Usually, they have been able to engineer a minor but sharp decline in the gold price, inducing a brief bout of panic selling which allows them to cover their shorts. Then they start the process all over again. However, this time, they sold a lot of futures short but were unable to cram the market down enough to get people to panic. Apparently, they ran into Middle Eastern and Asian (especially Chinese) buying in the bullion market. Now, the manipulators are getting steamrolled higher with big short positions. In the big picture, this is a minor event. A similar thing happened in late 2005. However, I wanted to explain why you are being fed a truckload of “pleeeeaze don’t buy gold” manure by the mainstream media at this time. It’s because JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs want to buy gold — to cover their shorts — and they don’t want any competition from you . Personally, I think that we will have a move higher in gold to about the $1650 area suggested by Jim Sinclair, with a pause around $1200. Of course, what I’m really talking about is a further decline in the dollar. Is gold a lousy investment? Sometimes. At other times, it’s a wonderful investment. Over the past ten years, gold has outperformed both stocks and bonds by an immense margin — just as stocks and bonds outperformed gold in 1980-1999. Here’s a funny fact: since 1965, if you owned stocks, bonds, or gold, your investment would be worth about the same today, 45 years later. This is the entire history of floating currencies, which began in 1971. I think that most regular people should consider holding about 20% of their portfolio in gold at this time. The best thing that can happen is that this 20% investment in gold will be flat, or go down slightly. The worst thing that can happen is if this 20% investment rises by several multiples. Because, that would mean the other 80% — the stocks and bonds — are getting pulverized in real terms. I think we will have a new gold standard eventually. At that point, I would sell my gold and buy stocks and bonds. However, there will probably be some difficulties before then. It’s human nature. It took two world wars before Europeans finally figured out that attacking your neighbors is pointless and stupid. It looks to me like we are going to learn that monetary manipulation is pointless and stupid. We are going to learn why a gold standard was explicitly mandated by the U.S. Constitution. We are going to learn it all the hard way.

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Gold `Off the Charts’, May Reach $1,500, Barclays Says: Technical Analysis

October 7, 2009

By Glenys Sim Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) — Investors should hold onto long positions in gold as bullion has “significant upside potential” to reach as high as $1,500 an ounce, Barclays Capital said, citing trading patterns. “Having rallied ‘off the charts’, we are left to resort to projections and extrapolated trendlines to forecast where the move might stop,” Jordan Kotick , global head of technical analysis at Barclays Capital, wrote in a note e-mailed today. So-called trendlines are used to determine momentum and are found by connecting an asset’s high prices and low prices over a given period to form a channel. “Channel resistance currently is at $1,370; history suggests a run at $1,500,” Kotick wrote. “Taking it a step at a time, in the coming weeks, we view consolidation above $1,020 as extremely positive, targeting $1,050 initially, and $1,120,” he added. Gold for immediate delivery gained as much as 2.6 percent to a record $1,043.78 an ounce yesterday, and traded at $1,038.46 at 10:35 a.m. in Singapore. “We suspect the rally is wave 3 of 5, indicating an eventual push toward the $1,120 area and potentially beyond into year end,” wrote Kotick, referring to the Elliott Wave theory, which holds that market swings follow a predictable five-stage pattern of three steps forward, two steps back. “Initial resistance is found in the $1,050 area but that is way too conservative given the springboard that a wide 18- month range provides,” he added. Not Unstoppable To be sure, when compared against the major currencies, it’s clear that the gold rally is “by no means unstoppable, as none of the charts show prices concurrently pressing against their respective all-time highs,” Kotick said. Gold priced in euros, pounds, South African rand, Australia and New Zealand dollars hit records in February as investors turned to bullion as a hedge against weakening currencies. Gold reached a peak of 783.87 euros and 692.66 pounds on Feb. 18. “Against sterling, gold is making great strides, and against the euro it is breaking higher out of range, but against the yen it is holding in a well-defined range,” said Kotick. “These charts speak volumes: as much about currency perceptions as the value of gold.” To contact the reporter on this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at Gsim4@bloomberg.net

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Gold Trades Near Record in Asia, Oil Climbs on Inflation, Dollar Weakness

October 6, 2009

By Kim Kyoungwha Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) — Gold traded near its record and oil advanced for a third day as investors bought commodities to protect their wealth on speculation the dollar will extend its decline and inflation accelerate. Gold for immediate delivery traded 0.5 percent below the record $1,043.78 yesterday as Asian stocks gained for a second day and the dollar was near the lowest level in almost two weeks against the euro. Australia unexpectedly increased interest rates yesterday on signs of strength in the economy. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials rose 13 percent this year, rebounding from its worst year in a half century, led by robust demand from China. The Baltic Dry Index , regarded by some investors as a proxy for shifts in commodity demand, posted a fifth consecutive gain, the longest winning streak in almost a month. “Eventually inflation will come; commodities always win in inflation,” said Ghee Peh , head of Asian mining research with UBS Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. “We’re going to have a weak dollar until the U.S. economy sorts out its problem.” Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,038.50 an ounce at 11:51 a.m. in Singapore compared to yesterday’s record of $1,043.78. Crude oil for November delivery rose 63 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $71.51 a barrel, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The dollar is coming under pressure as speculation that the Federal Reserve will trail other central banks in raising interest rates made the greenback less attractive. The dollar traded at $1.4704 per euro at 2:53 p.m. Sydney time from $1.4722 yesterday. Inflation Concern Gold has risen 18 percent this year as governments boost spending to pull their economies out of recession, sparking speculation rising money supply will debase paper currencies. “The uptrend remains intact given that rate hikes to come show inflation will build up, fanning demand for gold,” said Kim Jae Jun, a trader at Eugene Investment & Futures Co. in Seoul. Today’s move was a “minor consolidation,” and gold will rise to $1,100 an ounce by the end of 2009, Kim said. Newcrest Mining Ltd. , Australia’s biggest gold-mining company, paced producers’ gains, rising as much as 7.5 percent to A$35.40 on the Australian stock exchange. Lihir Gold Ltd. added as much as 6.1 percent to A$3.15. “There’s talk of inflation re-emerging and continuing weakness in the U.S. dollar, which suggests the gold price may well continue to climb higher,” said William Seddon , who helps manage about $300 million at White Funds Management in Sydney. Oil Gains Crude-oil futures, used by some investors to forecast trends in inflation, have soared 60 percent in New York this year. The “fragility of the U.S. dollar” was also supportive of the oil price, said David Moore , commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. Among other commodities, three-month delivery copper fell 0.4 percent to $6,088 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Corn for December delivery fell 0.2 percent to $3.575 a bushel in electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade, a day after gaining the most in three weeks to a two-month high. To contact the reporter on this story: Kyoungwha Kim in Singapore at Kkim19@bloomberg.net

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Gold Jumps to Record $1,038 an Ounce as Outlook for Inflation Fuels Demand

October 6, 2009

By Nicholas Larkin, Pham-Duy Nguyen and Kim Kyoungwha Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) — Gold rose to a record on speculation that inflation will accelerate and erode the value of the dollar, boosting the appeal of the precious metal for investors seeking to preserve their wealth. Gold futures climbed as high as $1,038 an ounce in New York, topping the previous record of $1,033.90 in March 2008. The spot price headed for a ninth straight annual gain, the longest rally since at least 1948. The dollar fell as much as 0.6 percent against a basket of six major currencies. “Gold is acting like the ultimate currency,” said Chip Hanlon , president of Delta Global Advisors Inc. in Huntington Beach, California. “Central banks are following the same monetary course and trying to stimulate and inflate their way back to growth. Everyone’s concerned about the dollar, but it’s not like you can hate the dollar and fall in love with the euro or the yen.” Gold futures for December delivery climbed $17, or 1.7 percent, to $1,034.80 an ounce at 9:36 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices may reach $1,400 within six months, Hanlon said. Gold for immediate delivery in London gained as much as 1.9 percent to a record $1,036.60. The metal gained 17 percent this year. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Sept. 15 that the worst U.S. recession since 1930s had probably ended, and billionaire investor Warren Buffett said his company was buying equities. Central banks lowered borrowing costs and the Group of 20 nations has pledged about $12 trillion to revive economic growth, leading to record inflows in some of the gold industry’s largest exchange-traded funds. ‘Just Begun’ “Gold has just begun its ascent,” said John Brynjolfsson , the chief investment officer of Armored Wolf LLC, a hedge fund in Aliso Viejo, California. “As central banks print more and more money, the private demand for gold as an investment and inflation hedge is destined to grow. It’s pretty clear that gold will be at $2,000 by 2012, and it could happen a lot faster.” Expectations of higher consumer prices are building. The difference between rates on 10-year notes and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, which reflects the outlook among traders for inflation, widened to 1.84 percentage points from almost zero at the end of 2008. It averaged 2.2 percentage points in the past five years. “Even though the current inflation rate is low, the risk of a blowup in inflation in the future is becoming higher all the time,” said Adam Farthing , Deutsche Bank AG’s head of metals trading in Asia. “Gold is pricing that in.” Metal Projection Farthing projected the metal will reach $1,150 by the end of the year. U.S. President Barack Obama increased the nation’s marketable debt to an unprecedented $6.78 trillion as he borrows to spur the world’s largest economy. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts the country will sell about $2.9 trillion of debt in the two years ending next September. “Many are expecting gold to trade at $1,050 an ounce within the next few weeks,” said Miguel Perez-Santalla , a Heraeus Precious Metals Management sales vice president in New York. “They are talking about this on the back of hyperinflation. Investment money is the driver.” Gold held in the SPDR Gold Trust , the biggest ETF backed by the metal, reached an all-time high of 1,134 metric tons on June 1 and was at 1,098.07 tons yesterday. The fund has passed Switzerland as the world’s sixth-largest gold holding. Consumer Prices U.S. consumer prices will expand 1 percent this quarter and 1.8 percent in each of the following two quarters, according to the median estimate of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Central banks’ net gold sales may drop to 16 tons this year, 93 percent below last year and the lowest since 1988, researcher GFMS Ltd. said Sept. 15. That, combined with futures trading regulation, will support demand for gold, Deutsche Bank’s Farthing said. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has tightened trading rules and pushed enforcement of position limits amid concern that speculation drove commodity prices to records last year. So far, new and anticipated limits have affected the largest agricultural, natural-gas and broad-based commodity funds in the U.S. “There’s definitely switching going on out of energy and agricultural commodities into gold,” Farthing said. Other precious metals have outperformed gold this year. Silver Futures Silver futures for December delivery advanced 3.8 percent to $17.155 an ounce on the Comex. The metal climbed to a 13- month high of $17.69 on Sept. 17 and is up 52 percent this year. An ounce of gold now buys about 60.3 ounces of silver in London, according to Bloomberg data. That’s down from a high of 84.4 ounces on Oct. 10, which was the most since March 1995. Palladium futures for December delivery rose 70 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $304 an ounce. The best-performing precious metal this year has gained 61 percent in 2009 on expectations for a revival in auto demand. Platinum futures for January delivery jumped $10.70, or 0.8 percent, to $1,312.50 an ounce in New York, increasing their gain for the year to 39 percent. Automakers account for about 60 percent of platinum and palladium use. Crude-oil futures, used by some investors to forecast inflation, have soared 60 percent this year in New York. To contact the reporters on this story: Kyoungwha Kim in Singapore at Kkim19@bloomberg.net ; Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net ; Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at pnguyen@bloomberg.net .

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Gold Tells You U.S. Bubble Hasn’t Popped Yet: Alice Schroeder

October 1, 2009

Commentary by Alice Schroeder Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) — If you owned stocks and gold and had to sell one, which would it be? The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has gained almost 60 percent since its low on March 9. Gold is near a record price. I know a fair number of people who would keep the gold. I’ve never been a gold bug myself. They get no respect. They are associated with survivalists, conspiracy theorists and nutcases. They are always looking for the hyperinflation that never comes. Gold bugs pay a premium over the metal price for gold and silver coins on the notion that they will need the currency, come the Apocalypse. On the other hand, the relationship between gold and financial crises goes back centuries. In the aftermath of the credit-bubble bust, we confront a Moby Dick-size pile of leverage and the question of whether this is inflationary or deflationary. So it’s worth considering what the price of gold may be telling us. Leverage is a broad term that covers the complete history of finance, which all boils down essentially to the same structure: debt secured by assets. You give me a cow, I give you a piece of paper. Later innovations are simply variations of obligations secured by assets. So a simple explanation of bubbles is that they form whenever someone creates a rationale to increase obligations too far beyond the level justified by the assets, regardless of the form of the asset or obligation. Dutch Tulips Consider tulip mania, which like all bubbles featured leverage; it was fueled not just by ordinary debt, but by leveraged tulip options. When the end came, the government of Holland declined to bail out those who had mortgaged their houses and businesses to buy tulip bulbs, and the multiyear depression that followed ruined an otherwise sound economy. Our recent real-estate bubble wasn’t like tulip mania, in which the inflated asset had only a tenuous connection to the economy it came to dominate. The real-estate bubble swelled on the genuine beliefs among consumers about their future prospects and earnings. To be sure, some of those prospects and earnings were exaggerated to the point of fraud. Thus the bubble burst when credit-card junkies had spent the last dollars they could justify, and the final peanut brain had been unearthed who could be persuaded to sign up for a negative-amortizing mortgage . Because this link, however slim, remained between people’s prospects and earnings and the debt they could carry, real- estate prices even in hard-hit cities such as Las Vegas declined only by half. Stock-market losses were similar. These numbers are reported as if they were staggering, but they are less so compared with many bubbles. Free Lunches Some now blame consumers’ disinclination to spend and get the economy going again on banks’ newfound reluctance to lend. To the contrary, we are in the midst of a deflationary trend that is temporarily being masked by inventory restocking and free lunches like “cash for clunkers.” Consumers are done with borrowing. They will keep fueling the deflation by going through their attics and garages to find stuff they can sell on EBay to raise cash. That’s because consumers have figured out that it was all a big head-fake from the Federal Reserve. Real incomes haven’t grown in years. Manufacturing and, increasingly, service jobs are still moving overseas. The Treasury is trying to pump the economy back to a high-water mark that was phony to begin with, and doing so in the face of a savings rate that is going up. Trade Gap The Treasury will succeed in printing enough money to forestall severe deflation. Even so, dollars will keep flowing out of the U.S. to other countries as the trade gap widens. Only when we start creating more jobs and higher earnings can this dynamic reverse. The question is, when will that be? Enter the gold bugs. They aren’t just betting on inflation, as is the conventional wisdom. Gold has a wicked history of being an unreliable inflation hedge. It has, though, at times been a haven against sudden currency depreciation. In all the talk of inflation because the Treasury is printing so much money versus deflation because it may not print enough, there is one type of inflation that is rarely discussed. This is the mega-inflation caused by a sudden currency devaluation. Currency is like any financial innovation, an obligation secured by assets. When the obligation is perceived to have increased far beyond the level justifiable by the assets, which in this case make up a country’s economy, a bubble has formed. As in any bubble, those who recognize this need to act well in advance. Historically, governments have taken action to prevent currency flight when the owners of a severely overvalued medium of exchange start selling so much that it adds to the pressure on its price. They make private purchases of gold illegal, or tax the exchange of currency. Right now, the American economy is worth less than the value implied by the market value of its obligations. How much less, no one knows. But gold bugs will tell you, privately, that this is why they are buyers. Might as well stock up, they say, before gold becomes a controlled substance. I haven’t, so far, but the temptation is rising by the day. ( Alice Schroeder , author of “The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life” and a senior adviser to Morgan Stanley, is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.) To contact the writer of this column: Alice Schroeder at aliceschroeder@ymail.com .

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London Bankers Rail Against EU Oversight as Lea Invokes Secession Option

October 1, 2009

By Simon Clark and Tom Cahill Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) — In a Georgian townhouse four minutes walk from Parliament, bankers, lawyers and economists held an off-the-record evening meeting to plot how to fight European Union financial regulation that they deem a threat to London. “I am extremely worried about the City of London,” said Ruth Lea , a director at Arbuthnot Banking Group Plc, who agreed after the Sept. 24 meeting at the Institute of Economic Affairs for her comments to be published. “Britain may be able to influence EU regulation, but we won’t be calling the shots. Britain should consider the nuclear option of leaving the EU.” Europe is making new laws and institutions that may challenge London’s ability to set the rules in the region’s largest financial center. At meetings across the city, investors are discussing how to respond to Brussels, the EU capital. Where some see the rules as a threat to Britain, others argue that the challenge is to capitalism across all of Europe. “It’s good to avoid mentioning London in every single sentence and start looking at this from a European point of view,” said Mats Persson, research director at Open Europe , a London lobby group that’s critical of EU integration. Persson also spoke at the IEA. “I am Swedish, and I have sympathy for this kind of thinking.” The EU last week proposed three regulatory agencies with the power to overrule national authorities. The European Parliament is preparing to debate the Directive on Alternative Investment Fund Managers — proposed rules pushed by European Socialist Party President Poul Nyrup Rasmussen to limit borrowing by private-equity firms and hedge funds and to enforce them to establish bases within the EU. Added Costs “Bit by bit we’ll have these three EU regulators above us,” Lea said. “There’s one for banking, one for insurance and one for securities inevitably calling the shots.” London’s hedge fund and private-equity managers argue that the directive targeting their industries will restrict Europeans’ ability to invest worldwide and make it harder for non-EU managers to raise money in Europe. The new rules could cost funds as much as 1.9 billion euros ($2.8 billion) through increased compliance costs in the first year and 985 million euros annually thereafter, according to Open Europe. “Everywhere in Europe people feel an unease about the Anglo-Saxon way of doing business in markets,” Hans Hoogervorst , chairman of the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets, said at a conference in London yesterday. ‘Political Agenda’ “Clearly there’s a political agenda when so many regulators and politicians are saying the Anglo-Saxon model is wrong,” Steven Woolfe , a London-based general counsel for hedge fund Boyer Allan Investment Management LLP said after Hoogervorst spoke. “Why should the U.K. allow its finance industry to be attacked? The French wouldn’t allow their farmers to be attacked like this, and neither would the Germans stand by as their automakers were attacked.” U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown is also criticizing the city as he prepares for an election next year. “We will pass a new law to intervene on bankers’ bonuses whenever they put the economy at risk,” Brown told the Labour Party’s annual conference in Brighton, England, on Sept. 29. In the past, London’s financial community has warned of an exodus of financial companies and the wealthy when faced with the threat of higher U.K. taxes or regulation. Up to now, that hasn’t happened. The IEA debate took place in a 54-year-old research organization whose goal is “to explain free-market ideas to the public.” IEA Panel Lea, 62, is a former head of policy at the U.K.’s Institute of Directors, an employers’ lobby group, and a former Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. economist. Charles Leach , a member of Parliament’s House of Lords, and a director of Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group Plc, the U.K.’s biggest publicly traded insurance broker, led the discussion. Hugh Trenchard , a member of the House of Lords, and Simmons & Simmons lawyer Richard Perry also spoke. Arguments against EU legislation in terms of the threat to London are counterproductive, said Angela Crawford-Ingle , who advises private-equity firms at Ambre Partners. “You’re missing a trick here,” she said. “If you take the emotion out of the debate for a moment, there are a lot of areas where you can get a European focus.” Investors, including real estate funds across Europe, oppose the directive, Crawford-Ingle said. Open Europe’s Persson said that three-quarters of Europe’s 1,785 private-equity firms are based outside Britain. ‘Not a French Plot’ The proposed EU directive on hedge funds and private equity “is not a French plot against the city,” Patrice Berge- Vincent, head of asset management at French regulator Autorite des Marches Financiers, told London investors at a conference yesterday. “We do welcome the directive, however we have to redraft almost all the proposals,” he said. Two days before the IEA debate, 300 dinner-jacketed city workers dined beneath the gold-topped pillars of The Great Egyptian Hall in the Mansion House, the official residence of the Lord Mayor of the City of London. Mayor Ian Luder said financial services were “a national asset” and toasted Queen Elizabeth II . Luder criticized Adair Turner , chairman of the Financial Services Authority, who has said some banking activities are “socially useless.” “Few people realize more than you the vital role the financial-services sector plays in providing the fuel for our economy,” Luder said to Turner. “We must do nothing in the spheres of tax, regulation and other business bureaucracy which damages our competitiveness.” Turner Critical Turner wouldn’t retract his criticism of bankers. “The real enemies of the city’s success and of the market economy, with all its great potential to spread prosperity and opportunity, are not those who raise these issues, but those who want to ignore them,” Turner said at the dinner. Arbuthnot’s Lea said in an interview that Turner’s arguments may aid London’s socialist critics across Europe such as Rasmussen. “I was dismayed to hear his comments about socially useless banking activities,” Lea said. “We should all be talking the city up, not down.” For Martin Allison, a diner at the Mansion House banquet and dean of Leeds Metropolitan University’s business faculty, Turner’s criticism may be vital to the city’s survival as Europe’s financial center. “I came away feeling very refreshed that people can openly disagree in public,” Allison said. “That is essential if London is to thrive as a financial center that serves Britain, Europe and the world. It’s a sign of a healthy cosmopolitan nation.” To contact the reporters on this story: Simon Clark in London at sclark4@bloomberg.net Tom Cahill in London at tcahill@bloomberg.net

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Peel Exploration Limited (ASX:PEX) Acquisition Of May Day Gold-Base Metal Deposit Near Cobar

September 25, 2009

Peel Exploration Limited (ASX:PEX) Acquisition Of May Day Gold-Base Metal Deposit Near Cobar

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Mormons Bilked in $50 Million Scam Promising Sale of 20,000 Tons of Gold

September 1, 2009

By James Sterngold Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) — Henry Jones delivered the good news in a conference call with Tri Energy Inc. ’s investors: The gold deal the company had been working on for years was about to pay off. Jones, 55, a record producer in Marina del Rey, California, and his two partners had raised more than $50 million from 735 investors, which they said they were using to broker the sale to Arab buyers of 20,000 tons of gold owned by a group of Israelis. They promised to triple investors’ money — if only Tri Energy could overcome some last-minute glitches. All the company needed to close the deal, Jones said on the Dec. 20, 2004, conference call, taped by one of the participants, was a “safe-passage letter” that would cost $450,000. A few days later, on another call, he said Tri Energy had to come up with $100,000 to open a “commission account.” Then, on Jan. 15, 2005, a new request: The bank handling the deal wanted $125,000 to conduct an audit. Like those caught up in other get-rich scams — from Bernard Madoff ’s $65 billion Ponzi scheme, which initially snared wealthy Jews, to an alleged $4.4 million fraud aimed at deaf people — Tri Energy’s investors had something in common. Many were Mormons and born-again Christians who shared dreams and prayers on nightly conference calls. They vowed to use the profits for charitable works and kept raising funds, at times taking out second mortgages, draining retirement accounts and recruiting relatives. While the delays and pleas for more money never stopped, the charade did. Restraining Order In May 2005, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission obtained a temporary restraining order against Jones and his partners, Robert Jennings, an associate pastor at the New Life Fellowship Church in Perris, California, and Arthur Simburg, a former marketing representative for sporting-goods manufacturer Puma AG . Jones, a native of Nigeria, and Jennings, 59, were later convicted in federal court in Los Angeles on charges of mail, wire and securities fraud. Jennings was sentenced last November to 12 years in prison, and Jones got 20 years in April. Both men have filed notices that they intend to appeal. Simburg, 64, who pleaded guilty and cooperated with prosecutors, received a nine- year sentence. Neither Simburg nor Jennings responded to letters sent to them in prison seeking comment. Jones replied in a hand-written note that he had been asked by an Arab group to broker deals in gold, crude oil and bank securities. He said the gold deal had not closed because it was structured as an “investment instrument,” not a one-time deal, and that, though the prosecutors could find no records, it was genuine. Affinity Fraud While their scam was puny compared with Madoff’s, which netted him 150 years in prison, it had much in common with the largest Ponzi scheme in history and other so-called affinity frauds. Such cons prey on like-minded or culturally connected investors whose trust blinds them to the implausible in the pursuit of profit. The SEC has filed 86 enforcement actions involving Ponzi schemes since the beginning of 2006, according to data compiled by NERA Economic Consulting , a New York-based research firm. The number more than tripled to 36 in the first six months of this year from 11 in 2006. Many of the scams, in which money from new investors is used to repay others or siphoned off by the promoters, targeted religious or ethnic groups. Haitian Ponzi In December, the SEC accused George Theodule of running a $23 million Ponzi scheme aimed at fellow Haitian immigrants, whose money he promised to double in 90 days. In April, it obtained an injunction against Marvin Cooper , who is deaf and who the SEC said was running a $4.4 million fraud based in Hawaii that recruited deaf investors in the U.S. and Japan. In June, it got a cease-and-desist order against Peter Son, a Korean-American, who it said bilked Asian investors, mostly Korean immigrants, out of $80 million. Theodule’s lawyer, Russell Weigel, says his client is seeking a dismissal of the SEC case. Cooper consented to the injunction, and his lawyer, Michael Glenn, says he’s trying to make restitution. Son pleaded not guilty to criminal fraud charges in federal court in Oakland in July. “Affinity can be a powerful element,” says Mitchell Zuckoff , a professor of journalism at Boston University and author of “Ponzi’s Scheme: The True Story of a Financial Legend,” a 2005 book about Charles Ponzi ’s 1920 fraud. “That’s what gets people to lower their inhibitions. There’s this attitude, ‘He’s like me. I can trust him.’ It’s almost hard- wired into our DNA.” ‘Totally Outlandish’ While some Tri Energy claims were implausible — the 20,000 tons of gold was more than twice the total U.S. bullion reserve , the largest in the world — investors rarely wavered in their loyalty. One even invested more money after his brother, despondent about being conned, committed suicide, prosecutors say. “These deals sounded totally outlandish to me,” says Stephen Cohen, an SEC lawyer in Washington who worked on the case. “But it was obvious that the people on their conference calls were very sincere. They really cared about each other. They prayed for each other. They talked about their families. They just wanted to believe.” For Kim Flanigan, 37, a Mormon who owns a furniture store with her husband in Casper, Wyoming, being part of a spiritual mission was addictive. She says she invested $10,000 in Tri Energy at the suggestion of her mother and an aunt. ‘Like a Cult’ “It was almost like a cult,” Flanigan says. “There were prayers at the end of most of the calls. That element was key. There was a real sense of camaraderie, a sense of community, and everything we were going to do involved humanitarian efforts to change the world. That’s why you felt like you didn’t dare disrupt it. God’s behind us, and you shouldn’t betray him.” Ned Hill, a professor of business management and a former dean of the Marriott School of Management at Brigham Young University in Provo, Utah, says Mormons have a history of being victimized by financial scams. The church , an offshoot of Christianity founded by Joseph Smith in 1830, teaches its 13.5 million members they can get into heaven by following a prescribed path of good works. Hill says he confronted the power of belief over reason when he learned about 12DailyPro, an Internet advertising business being pitched to students at the Mormon-affiliated university that promised returns of 44 percent in 12 days. ‘Community of Trust’ When he sent an e-mail warning students it was a pyramid scheme, he says he received death threats from some investors, which he reported to university security officials. The SEC obtained a permanent injunction and shut it down in 2006. “What you have in a Mormon community or any religious community is a community of trust, and it can be very strong,” says Hill, who is a Mormon. “If you can break into that trust, then the things that make this so supportive can make people really vulnerable. Mormons can be especially vulnerable because they’re committed to doing good.” Jones, Jennings and Simburg, none of whom is a Mormon, exploited this vulnerability for at least four years, offering a cocktail of spirituality, exclusivity and the promise of high returns. “The guys who did this were geniuses in a way,” says Dana Carney, an assistant professor of management at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business in New York, who has written about investor psychology. “This has the flavor of a cult. They hit all these vulnerabilities. There was religion; we trust like people, especially religiously like people. With the nightly calls, there was an illusion of transparency. They took advantage of the sunk-costs phenomenon: The more people invest in something, the more connected they feel.” Congolese Uranium The three didn’t appear to be geniuses. Their company had no office, they rarely met with investors and they spun a series of deals that never materialized, according to prosecutors, including a plan to ship Congolese uranium via diplomatic pouch, a venture to produce 99.3 percent emissions-free coal at a Kentucky mine and a project to develop hydroelectric power in Sierra Leone. “Some of their stuff sounded ridiculous, but it worked for years,” says Ruth Pinkel, an assistant U.S. attorney in Los Angeles and a prosecutor on the case. “The more ridiculous it sounded, the more people seemed to love it.” Scam Victims Jennings, the son of a postal worker, and Simburg, who grew up in Berkeley, California, were themselves victims of a scam. The two met in the late 1960s when Simburg, who was working for Puma, gave a pair of sneakers to Jennings, then a 6-foot-6-inch basketball player at California Polytechnic State University in San Luis Obispo, according to Jennings’s pre-sentencing statement. They reconnected in 1995 and, in the late 1990s, were trying to raise money for a clean-coal company called H&J Energy Co., Simburg told prosecutors. An Orange County investment firm, Morgan Weinstein & Co., promised to loan them $100 million in exchange for a $100,000 fee — a fee they paid even after getting two calls from a Federal Bureau of Investigation agent warning them it was a con, according to FBI memos obtained by the prosecutors. The loan never materialized, and six principals in the firm were convicted of fraud in 2003. Simburg told prosecutors he was introduced to Jones in 2001 by a mutual acquaintance who thought the Nigerian might use his international connections to help Tri Energy raise capital. Tri Energy, founded that year by Simburg, Jennings and Jennings’s father-in-law, Thomas Avery, was registered in Nevada and had leases on two low-producing Kentucky coal mines. ‘Paradigm Pioneer’ Jones failed to find any investors, according to Simburg’s account. He did offer something else, Simburg testified: a chance to take part in a Middle East gold transaction and use $200 million of the expected profits to finance the coal operation. Asked at his trial to explain his own involvement with Tri Energy, Jones called Simburg “a paradigm pioneer who had a project that was likely to contribute to ascendant energy.” Jones was more flamboyant than either Simburg, who lived in a bungalow near the Los Angeles airport, or Jennings, who had a small house in Perris, 70 miles east of the city. He used investor money to buy a $1.5 million home in Marina del Rey and a $277,000 Ferrari Spider for his wife, according to court- appointed receiver Richard Weissman. He showed up for meetings in a chauffeur-driven limousine wearing loud, custom-made suits and a bowler hat, at times bringing his wife, Yekaterina Jones, an aspiring singer and Russian model, says a person who met with him on several occasions. Gold Deal Once Jones was onboard and taking part in the nightly conference calls, the gold deal took center stage, prosecutors say. Jones, Simburg and Jennings each had a role on the nightly calls, according to prosecutors and a review of tapes, transcripts and summaries of 267 sessions conducted from early 2004 to early 2005. Simburg led the meetings, Jennings spoke about the coal mine and Jones offered updates on the gold transaction. The three also talked about the common beliefs that held the group together. “Faith — if you have it the size of a mustard seed, you’ll move mountains,” Jones said during a call with investors in February 2004. To Roger Sohn, 67, a dentist in San Bernardino, California, who invested and lost $210,000, the strong spiritual undercurrent made the three promoters more credible. “That was one of the things that deceived me more than anything else,” says Sohn, who describes himself as not religious. Keep on Believing Even when they were caught lying, the promoters managed to convince investors to keep on believing. Several of them, angry about the repeated delays, confronted Simburg and Jones in Los Angeles on Super Bowl Sunday, Feb. 1, 2004, according to Craig Mason, the lead FBI agent on the case. Jones had told them he couldn’t meet because he was in Europe, Mason says. When they went to the office of his music company, Marina Investors Group Inc., they found him hiding under a desk. Three days later, Jones said on a conference call, according to a transcript of the meeting, that he had concealed his whereabouts because he was being shadowed by “men in white trousers circling the building in odd hours of the night.” If investors gave him a little more time, Jones said on the call, he would provide proof that the gold deal was about to succeed. “So we only have to wait another few hours for the documentation?” asked one investor, who wasn’t identified. “I think it’s worth our while to do that.” Suicide in Utah The investors hung on for almost two more years. “There was a core group that thoroughly defended them, even after they were shut down, and said that if you just wait, the gold deal will close,” Mason says. “They blamed the government for their losses, for stopping the deal when it was about to come through.” When Wesley Montierth, a financial planner in Ogden, Utah, who had invested in Tri Energy, committed suicide in October 2004, Simburg attended the funeral and helped pay for it. Montierth, a Mormon and a retired schoolteacher, grew despondent after realizing he had been conned and had lost $136,000 of his own money as well as funds of family members and clients, according to a deposition given by his widow, Kathy, and statements made in court by Douglas Axel , a prosecutor in the case. Aunt Millie That didn’t prevent Simburg from reaching out at the funeral to Montierth’s brother David, a California cable TV executive. David, who had already invested $100,000 at his brother’s urging, testified that he put in another $65,000 at Simburg’s request. He didn’t return phone messages left at his home in Laguna Niguel, California. Not long after Wesley Montierth’s death, the scheme began to unravel. “This all started when Aunt Millie called me and said she had a great investment deal,” says Sean Pearson, 36, an accountant in Seattle and the brother of Kim Flanigan, the Wyoming furniture store owner. Pearson says he first heard about Tri Energy in early 2004 when his aunt, Mildred Stultz, asked whether he might be interested in a gold deal. He says he later realized it might have been connected with a coal business in which his mother, Debbie Loveless, had invested about $50,000. Taped Calls “I finally linked it with the coal conversation I’d had with my mom, and I thought, ‘My god, is this the same scam?’” Pearson says. “I immediately called Kim and asked if Millie had contacted her and if she’d invested. She said, ‘Yeah, we’re one of them.’” Prodded by her brother, Flanigan grew skeptical and started recording the nightly conference calls. Pearson joined a call in late 2004 and threatened to expose the scheme if Simburg didn’t return his sister’s $10,000. After Simburg complied, Pearson informed Washington state securities regulators. The Department of Financial Institutions issued a cease-and-desist order on Feb. 28, 2005. Two months later, on May 3, the SEC got its order. Simburg told investigators that Tri Energy’s lawyer advised him and Jennings to go to the FBI and inform the agency that Jones’s gold deal was a hoax. Instead, they continued to raise money into 2006, prosecutors say. The three were indicted on Sept. 27, 2007. Simburg, Jennings Some friends and family members of Simburg’s and Jennings’s say they were conned by Jones. Arthur Simburg’s brother, Melvyn, a lawyer in Seattle who didn’t invest in Tri Energy, says Arthur wanted to prove he could succeed in business so badly he ignored the warning signs. Ted Norton, pastor at the New Life Fellowship Church in Perris, where Jennings was associate pastor, says his colleague was so motivated by Christian zeal to help others he allowed himself to be duped by Jones. “He never seemed to get anything out of this,” says Norton, who invested and lost about $14,000 in Tri Energy and says he isn’t bitter about losing the money. “He never showed that he got any benefit.” Prosecutors say Simburg and Jennings together took about $1 million of the $32.6 million raised from February 2002 to January 2006, less than one-twentieth of what went to Jones. Muddy Hole The SEC says the scam went back to the 1990s and brought in at least $50 million. During the four-year period covered by the federal indictment, almost $8 million was paid out to investors, including some who received commissions for bringing in new money, prosecutors say. Simburg took $588,854 for his own use, including salary and expenses. Jennings, who owned a 1992 Honda Accord and a 1993 Mazda Protege, according to sentencing documents, took $385,681, which he shared with his father-in-law. Another $3.39 million was spent on the coal mine, described by Weissman as a muddy hole in the ground with broken equipment, about two dozen employees and output that generated just $117,825 in revenue over 2 1/2 years. About two-thirds of the money raised by Tri Energy went to Jones, prosecutors say. In addition to the house in Marina del Rey, he purchased a town house in Culver City later valued at $725,000. He also bought a 2005 Porsche Cayenne for $108,000 and spent more than $800,000 supporting his wife and child. And $21 million went to his two entertainment companies, Global Village Records and Marina Investors Group. Fantasy Twins He built a recording studio, financed concert tours, shot music videos and paid clubs to let his artists sing. The revenue from Jones’s entertainment businesses during the four years was about $7,800, according to Weissman. The last album he released, for a Korean duo called the Fantasy Twins, earned only $20.33 in online sales, Weissman says. “He just blew the money, totally blew it on the company,” says Weissman, who has been unable to account for about $13 million of the money Jones took. He has recovered only $1 million of Tri Energy’s assets, which will be returned to investors. Jones wrote in his letter that his entertainment company was a long-term investment with valuable assets. “My case, unfortunately, is a reminder that there are times when the abstraction of the soul from the bondage of the bottom line is worthy of serious contemplation,” he wrote. While the theft angers Pearson, the Seattle accountant who blew the whistle on Tri Energy, he’s bothered even more by the investor behavior that made the scam possible. “It angered me because I’d lost my Mom; I mean, there was no reaching her,” Pearson says. “I showed her clear evidence why this had to be a scam. But after a while it wasn’t about the money anymore. It was her identity. If people have a certain personality trait or emotional need, they won’t let go.” For more Bloomberg Markets magazine stories, see http://www.bloomberg.com/news/marketsmag/ . To contact the reporter on this story: James Sterngold in Los Angeles at jsterngold2@bloomberg.net

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Michael Russnow: My GE Dishwasher Tragedy, Manufacturer Parts, Car Repairs and Doctor Visits: Let’s Be Mad as Hell and Not Take it Anymore!

August 23, 2009

I had some experiences recently I thought I’d share that may have happened to you. Experiences that cost time and money and seem designed to screw us, while perpetuating a steady flow of income for other parties. In the first case, before you remind me, I will readily admit I caused the problem. My objection is with the available solution that now confronts me. I bought a General Electric Portable dishwasher a number of years ago. It has worked fine, and I have no complaint with its operation. The problem is its design. In order to connect it to my sink, I have to fasten a unicouple — a device that delivers water to and from the dishwasher — to the faucet and over time it has become worn, making it a bit more difficult to disengage. After the last usage when I tried to take it off, the entire faucet adapter (which connects it with the faucet) came along with it. Try as I might to detach the unicouple, I couldn’t get it to budge. I finally tapped it against the sink and, in the process, the unicouple broke. Okay, it was my fault. However, instead of being able to replace a cheap plastic part that might have set me back a few bucks, I am stymied by the fact that the unicouple, designed by mega-corp GE, is attached to two hoses that extend well inside the machine. Now it’s a humongous job. The part alone costs over a hundred dollars, not to mention a repairman who would charge anywhere from $75-100 an hour. A new machine costs about $450, so it’d be dumb to pay so much just to get my dishwasher repaired. However, the simple question is why wasn’t the machine designed so that the unicouple might click in and out of the hoses or attach with common screws, enabling a simple and inexpensive replacement instead of combining all elements of the operation into one device? Not to mention the fact that the hoses go all the way inside the machine, requiring me to open the dishwasher up and figure out how to disconnect and reassemble the part. It’s absurd that a simple appendage made of cheap plastic and thus easily breakable under many circumstances cannot be replaced without undergoing the options I’ve described. And yet without the unicouple, the machine, even with its primary operating functions working perfectly, is now kaput! And consumer headaches don’t stop there. Have you looked under your car hood lately? In order to repair something otherwise very cheap, a mechanic often has to disassemble many of the parts to get to where your $5.95 hose or fuse might be. The other day a dashboard light came on in my Toyota Corolla — one I’d never seen. I looked in my manual and discovered it was the “Check Engine Light.” I went to my local PepBoys, and they said the “Check Engine Light could be a myriad of causes and they’d have to hook my car to an analysis machine, costing $90, which was in addition to any work they might have to do. Fortunately, I’d secured a coupon from their website for, among other things, checking the engine light. They happily agreed to do so and later informed me it was smog device related, referring me to a Toyota dealer. As I was headed for an important appointment, I got their assurance that my engine was not in jeopardy and the car wouldn’t break down. However, out of curiosity I called the Toyota dealership and gave them the engine analysis code number PO 404, and was told the repair could cost over $400. I consulted The Internet about this PO 404 code — thank God for Internet “Ask” sites — and was advised the light might simply be due to a loose gas cap (which I tightened) or possibly some water in the gas. Such circumstances might correct themselves after a few days of driving. Sure enough in a couple of days the engine light went off. But why is this “Check Engine Light” such a catchall of scary possibilities? There are separate light indicators for oil and battery and overheating problems. Since newer cars have computer systems, couldn’t they have a number system that would identify the problem, e.g. a “32″ appears on the dash, and your manual lists the problem or at least localizes the area of the dilemma? Manufacturing CEOs do very little to reduce the need for maintenance work and perhaps there should be legislative enforcement requiring them to do so. We have laws about emission controls and gas mileage. Why not for manufacturing devices mandating modular parts that are easier to get to and for systems that would more easily identify the problem and not subject us to “analysis” costs? And while I’m at it, there should be a recoupment procedure available when doctors make us wait an unreasonable amount of time. It’s quite common to be made to wait more than an hour — sometimes two and three — and when you complain to the receptionist you are treated in a “how dare you” manner, as if it’s unconscionable to gripe about a doctor. Not to mention the fact that many people are intimidated from doing so, perhaps after years of being told that that profession was the gold standard when nailing a husband. A friend of mine, who has severe glaucoma, waited two and a half hours, having already inquired about the tardiness of the doctor after the first hour. Only after almost three hours of waiting was she told there were emergencies that had come through the door. My question, of course, is why weren’t the waiting patients notified so that they could determine whether they wanted to reschedule? Indeed, my friend decided not to wait further and she told me the receptionist looked at her like she was crazy for not hanging out longer. Why can’t we bill a doctor for our time when we are kept waiting — let’s say — more than half an hour? What’s our time worth? After all, they have the cheek to bill us if we cancel our appointment within a short time frame or don’t show up at all. It’s time to rise up and not take crap, like Peter Finch’s character Howard Beale advised us in Paddy Chayefsky’s classic film Network . Isn’t it time for Anderson Cooper to do a Keeping Them Honest report on CNN? How about 60 Minutes on CBS, Dateline on NBC or 20/20 on ABC? Maybe Oprah could do a show. Meanwhile, as I live alone and mostly cook for myself when I’m home, I’ll just deal with washing my dishes the old fashioned way. As I said at the outset, this particular problem was my own fault. Pity the solution isn’t less costly and complicated. Michael Russnow’s website is www.ramproductionsinternational.com

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