Hedge Fund

Mahendra Ramsinghani: 2011 A Year Of Recovery For Venture Capital, But Still A Ways To Go

December 30, 2011

For venture capital, 2011 was a year of recovery. Investors in venture funds (called Limited Partners) wryly pointed out in 2010 that venture capital had not produced returns in the past decade. 2011 may have corrected that, but investors still continue to shy away from VC. But let’s start with the good news first. A Year of IPOs and returns: For most VCs, the big payday is when a company gets acquired or goes public. Of course, going public has its own cachet, not to mention returns. On an average, IPOs generate at least 5X the rate of return as compared to an acquisition. Some worthy tech IPOs of note in 2011 were LinkedIn, Groupon and Zynga. Others included ZipCar (Short term car rentals), RenRen (China’s Facebook), Yandex (Russia’s search engine) Fusion I-O, (Hardware) to name a few. Venture funds that had at least two IPOs include Accel, Andresseen-Horowitz, Benchmark, Greylock, Kleiner Perkins, Sequoia, Technology Crossover Ventures and New Enterprise Associates. Others of note include Foundry Group and Union Square Ventures (Zynga) and Battery (Angie’s List). Indeed, the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA) US VC Index showed one year returns of 26.3% as of Q2 2011. This number will continue to beat other indexes, including S & P 500 in 2012, but will that help VCs? VC asset class gains respect (but no money): Even as venture capital as an asset class recovers from its depths and the ten-year average return moves into the black, investors continue to shun the VCs. The NVCA Cambridge Associates VC Index shows 1.25% return over the past ten years while S & P 500 generated 2.72% for the same period. But on the whole, VC is no more than 4% of any institutional portfolio. The entire asset class attracts merely $20 billion or so each year. In comparison, hedge funds attract trillions, as do treasury bonds. The rationale provided is that it’s a risky asset class, and being tied in the relationship for 10 years is not fun. But risk, as we know it, is not restricted to VC — every asset class in the past 3 years has encountered the black swan and taken a hit. So while the definition of risk has changed, the asset allocation formulas have not changed. In fact, it continues to get worse: CalPERS, the largest investor in venture capital, plans to reduce its allocation down to 1% . In fact, it will be skipping on its commitment to Khosla Ventures, one of the largest venture funds in the valley. The entire industry is down by orders of magnitude. In 2011, 147 venture funds raised $12.2 billion in the first 3 quarters. Ten years ago, at the height of the bubble, over 1100 firms raised $100 billion. And for those raising funds, according to Preqin, a Private Equity research firm, partners spend at least 16 months, if not longer, raising their funds. Done Deals (What’s a few Solyndra’s here and there?) : Some of the largest investments in 2011 were in pharma, social media and energy: Reata Pharmaceuticals raised $300 million – the largest amount as of Q3 2011. Social Media / Local Commerce companies that raised larger rounds include discounted luxury brand e-tail provider, Gilt Groupe ($136 million), event management software company, Cvent ($135 million), short term accommodation rentals facilitator Airbnb ($112 million), Coupons.com ($100 million), Blog hosting platform Tumblr ($84.9 million). Even as the sun may be setting on the energy sector with Solyndra’s debacle, energy was one of the larger sectors that attracted mucho VC dinero. BrightSource ($201 million) HelioVolt ($84.9 million) SoloPower ($78.5 million) and Fulcrum BioEnergy ($75 million) were a few big ones of note in 2011. On the other end of the spectrum, Y Combinator attracted as many as 3,000 applicants – where an average class size is 40 to 60 start-ups – which means a lot of work for Paul Graham. VCs get actively involved on Capitol Hill; No Occupy Tactics yet: For any VC to get involved in legislation is a royal pain in the rear. Most do not know how the elected officials make decisions, why the process is so archaic and how to inject the voice of reason to ensure the outcomes are balanced. Despite this, VCs across the board joined hands to have their say in legislation. The recording industry and movie industry have pushed for Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA), which targets online traffickers of copyrighted materials. VCs say it is over reaching and will cripple the Internet and is tantamount to censorship. (You can spot an overzealous legislation when the law wants to chase the connectivity providers and not those infringing the copyright,) Similarly, Protect Intellectual Property Act (PIPA) aims to curb IP infringement, VCs and Tech entrepreneurs protest that it will inhibit innovation as the law would go after search engines and web advertising firms. VCs have also voiced their opinions on start-up visa to help restore innovation and entrepreneurship by attracting immigrants. CNET predicts that in 2012, SOPA opponents will go nuclear . Of course, all of these will keep VCs distracted for most part of 2012. A wag of a VC told me over beers that if Donald Trump is elected President in 2012, all of this would go away as he could fire everyone on Capitol Hill. Finally, it seems VCs have lightened up a bit and found a way to express themselves in more entrepreneur-friendly ways. In 2011, Foundry Group debuted “I’m a VC” video . As the story goes, Jason Mendelson was inspired to create the video when a 8 year old and his co-founder (a dog) were expecting $20 million pre-money valuation for their start-up!

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Ernan Roman: 2012: Year of Preference-Driven Multichannel Marketing Breakthroughs

December 28, 2011

PREDICTION: Marketers who deploy their multichannel marketing mix at key points in customer’s lifecycles with the company and per customer’s individual preferences will win. Those who don’t will just be creating multichannel irritation. Brand Paths in 2012 For some brands, this will be the year of multichannel breakthroughs. For other brands, the next twelve months will be another painful period of trial and error — mostly error. Per recent Voice of Customer research we conducted with major BtoB and BtoC marketers, customers want brands to use an integrated multichannel mix that engages them to share their preferences regarding offers, alerts, frequency of contact and media preferences. Using this integrated multichannel mix, marketers can provide relevant communications … at key points in the consumer’s lifecycle with the company. Thriving in 2012 … and Beyond To thrive in 2012, assume that both “old” and “new” media will play a role in your customer’s personalized multichannel mix. Elements of a preference-driven mix include online, social, direct mail, print, broadcast, narrowcast, and all the possible person to person “touch points,” including both face to face and phone interactions. As an excellent Epsilon study, “The Formula for Success: Preference and Trust,” referenced here , put it: “Consumers use and trust certain communications channels more than others. This means that marketers need to understand which channels resonate most at various points in the consumer purchase cycle and incorporate a cross-channel strategy that leverages data and technology to communicate on a one-to-one basis … Our study suggests that brands should use a variety of mediums to build relationships, starting with trusted channels like direct mail, then layering the message to re-enforce it through other channels.” This multichannel mix must be deployed at key points in the customer’s lifecycle with your company and per the consumer’s individual preferences … or you will lose ground in 2012! Four Takeaways for Marketers Trust your customers to tell you: Gather Voice of Customer (VOC) research-based insights regarding how your customers define a truly personalized multichannel relationship, and which communications are most relevant at key points in their relationship lifecycle with you. Understand the behaviors that equal “engagement”: Use VOC insights to understand what range of actions from your side drive engagement from the consumer’s side, such as recognition, personalized rewards, the opportunity to share their point of view, the chance to enter a contest, etc. Be media agnostic: Offer both “old” and “new” media options your customers can select to satisfy their media preferences. Measure it. Track the results carefully over time. What matters is not how many eyeballs or fans you have. It’s what people are actually doing … and buying! Ernan Roman is President of the marketing consultancy, Ernan Roman Direct Marketing. Recognized as the industry pioneer who created three transformational methodologies: Integrated Direct Marketing, Opt-In Marketing, and Voice of Customer Relationship Research. Ernan was recently inducted into the Marketing Hall of Fame. Clients include Microsoft, NBC Universal, Disney, Hewlett-Packard and IBM. Ernan was named to “B to B’s Who’s Who” as one of the “100 most influential people” in Business Marketing by Crain’s B to B Magazine. His fourth and latest book on marketing best practices is titled: Voice of the Customer Marketing: A Proven 5-Step Process to Create Customers Who Care, Spend, and Stay . Ernan is also the co-author of “Opt-In Marketing: Increase Sales Exponentially with Consensual Marketing” and author of “Integrated Direct Marketing: The Cutting Edge Strategy for Synchronizing Advertising, Direct Mail, Telemarketing and Field Sales.” www.erdm.com ernan@erdm.com

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Former Obama Adviser: Geithner Set Obama Up For Payroll Tax Success

December 28, 2011

Progressives have a spring in their step this holiday season after the debacle suffered by House Republicans in the debate over the payroll tax. Many liberals will be surprised to learn that a good deal of the credit belongs to one of their least-favorite members of the president’s economic team: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, whose economic and strategic counsel set the trap that the House hardliners fell into.

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Dan Solin: Don’t Be Fooled by "Best Fund Manager" Lists

December 27, 2011

This is the time of year when the financial media goes into overdrive. You can expect no end of predictions for 2012. Some will be right. Others will be wrong. Those who are right will anoint themselves (or be anointed) as new “gurus” with magical predictive powers. Actually, they were just lucky. More insidious are lists of “best fund managers”. Investors rely on these lists, especially when they are created by credible sources. Morningstar is arguably at the top of the food chain in the investment research biz. According to its web page , it offers data on 330,000 investment offerings and has $167 billion under management. It operates in 26 countries. Much of the advice provided by Morningstar is excellent should be studied and followed by investors. My favorite is an article demonstrating that low fees are likely to be the best predictor of a mutual fund’s future success, which is summarized here . Morningstar, like many others, picks active fund managers who it believes stand out from the crowd. Much like the Grammy awards, Morningstar designated five “nominees” for domestic stock manager of 2011. In making these selections, Morningstar noted that the nominees “…have done an outstanding job not just this year but over the long haul to produce strong returns for shareholders.” Sounds impressive. And the nominees are: 1. Bob Goldfarb and David Pope. Sequoia Fund (SEQUX) 2. Bill Nygren. Oakmark Select (OAKLX) and Oakmark (OAKMX) 3. Don and Stephen Yacktman. Yackman (YACKX) and Yacktman Focused (YAFFX) 4. Scott Satterwhite, James Kieffer and George Serti. Artisan Mid Cap Value (ARTQX), Artisan Small Cap Value (ARTVX) and Artisan Value (ARTLX) 5. Pat English and Andy Ramer. FMI Large Cap (FMIHX) and FMI Common Stock (FMIMX). The lucky winner will be announced the first week in January. Readers of the article were encouraged to vote for their favorite. I thought it would be helpful to give you some data to guide your decision. First, I can understand the basis for picking these fund managers. Not only did they have a good year, they had a great decade. I ran the ten year returns for each of these fund managers. All of them clobbered their benchmark. The performance of the Yackmans was particularly impressive. The ten year return of their two funds was 10.78 percent and 11.63 percent, against a benchmark of only 3.93 percent. In a previous blog , I noted that stellar performance can be as easily attributed to luck as to skill. It can take many years of data for outperformance by a fund manager to have statistical significance. I ran what is called a “t-test” calculation on each of the five managers nominated by Morningstar. I used data from the inception date when the fund manager nominated began to manage the fund. I determined that I needed more years of data to determine whether the outperformance of all these fund managers was due to luck or skill. You can find details of my calculations, and an explanation of the t-test calculation here . Without this information, how would you decide which of these managers you should select to manage your funds? Worse yet, how could anyone determine which funds to include in this list of “best manager?” Wouldn’t the “best manager” necessarily be able to demonstrate investment skill? If you must vote for your favorite fund manager, follow Morningstar’s previous advice. Go with the fund manager whose fund has the lowest expense ratio. The winner would be the Yackman Fund (YACKX), with an expense ratio of 0.85 percent. A far more intelligent choice would be to ignore list of “best fund managers” altogether. You can buy low management fee index funds from Vanguard for a fraction of the expense ratio of the lowest actively managed funds. Vanguard’s Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) has an expense ratio of only 0.18 percent. According to Vanguard , this expense ratio is 84 percent lower than the average expense ratio of funds with similar holdings. This fund is managed by Gerard C. O’Reilly. He would be my pick for “best fund manager.” Dan Solin is a senior vice president of Index Funds Advisors. He is the New York Times bestselling author of The Smartest Investment Book You’ll Ever Read, The Smartest 401(k) Book You’ll Ever Read, The Smartest Retirement Book You’ll Ever Read and The Smartest Portfolio You’ll Ever Own. His new book, The Smartest Money Book You’ll Ever Read, will be available December 27, 2011.The views set forth in this blog are the opinions of the author alone and may not represent the views of any firm or entity with whom he is affiliated. The data, information, and content on this blog are for information, education, and non-commercial purposes only. Returns from index funds do not represent the performance of any investment advisory firm. The information on this blog does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice and is limited to the dissemination of opinions on investing. No reader should construe these opinions as an offer of advisory services. Readers who require investment advice should retain the services of a competent investment professional. The information on this blog is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or class of securities mentioned herein. Furthermore, the information on this blog should not be construed as an offer of advisory services. Please note that the author does not recommend specific securities nor is he responsible for comments made by persons posting on this blog.

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Stocks Rise As U.S. Data Improves, Italy Moves Towards Austerity

December 16, 2011

BANGKOK — World stocks rose Friday amid improving U.S. jobs and manufacturing data and the expected approval in Italy of an austerity plan intended to get the country’s finances under control. Benchmark oil hovered near $94 per barrel while the dollar rose against the euro and the yen. European shares rose in early trading, following gains in Asia. Britain’s FTSE added 0.3 percent to 5,415.04. Germany’s DAX inched up 0.3 percent to 5,745.07. France’s CAC-40 was steady at 2,997.89. Wall Street also appeared ready to head higher. Dow Jones industrial futures rose 0.4 percent to 11,872 while S&P 500 futures gained 0.6 percent to 1,218.80. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was 0.3 percent higher to close at 8,401.72. South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.2 percent to 1,839.96 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 1.4 percent to 18,285.39. Benchmarks in Singapore, Taiwan and Indonesia also rose. Mainland China shares ended a six-session losing streak, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gaining 2 percent to close at 2,224.84. Analysts stopped short of calling the gains a recovery, as trading was light ahead of the holidays. The Hang Seng, snapping a six-day losing streak, was higher on a technical rebound, said Linus Yip, a strategist at First Shanghai Securities in Hong Kong. “The market dropped for six straight days. Now it may find some excuse for a technical rebound. So the U.S. job figures may be the excuse,” Yip said. Later Friday, the Italian government will hold a critical confidence vote in the lower house of parliament on a multibillion euro austerity package. Despite widespread opposition, the plan aimed at persuading bond markets that the country can emerge from the widening European debt crisis is expected to pass. The country now sits on a 1.9 trillion euros ($2.5 trillion) powder keg of debt that could spark a global economic recession if a default occurs. “While the plan will very likely get the required support from MPs, it will be important to see whether amendments are proposed in terms of spending cuts and implementation schedule, in particular,” Frederik Ducrozet, an economist at Credit Agricole CIB, said in a research note. Signs emerged that the Chinese central bank may have intervened in the currency market by offering dollars to support the Chinese yuan, which has been weakening in recent sessions. That raised speculation that authorities may plan more market-boosting measures. The yuan strengthened to a record 6.3294 against the U.S. dollar, but later eased to 6.3446. Weakness in the yuan could raise tensions with countries such as the U.S. that complain it is already undervalued. Among Japanese stocks, online game firm Gree rose 0.8 percent after Nomura Holdings rated the stock a “buy” on an expected increase in profits, Kyodo News Agency reported. Major automakers fell, including Toyota Motor Corp., down 1.8 percent, and Mazda Motor Corp. dropping 2.2 percent. Retailers led Australia stocks down. JB Hi-Fi tumbled 14.9 percent after surprising investors with a profit warning late Thursday. Myer Holdings fell 2.6 percent. Investor sentiment rose after the U.S. government reported that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits dropped sharply last week to 366,000, the fewest since May 2008. That’s a sign that layoffs are easing, a first step toward bringing down the unemployment rate, which currently stands at 8.6 percent. Traders were also encouraged by a report from the Federal Reserve of New York that its index measuring regional manufacturing jumped to the highest level since May. That was far more than economists were expecting. A similar report from the Philadelphia branch of the Fed also increased more than analysts anticipated. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.4 percent to 11,868.81. The Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 0.3 percent to 1,215.76. The Nasdaq rose marginally to 2,541.01. Benchmark oil for January delivery was up 12 cents to $93.99 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell $1.08 to finish at $93.87 per barrel on Nymex on Thursday. In currency trading, the euro fell to $1.3009 from $1.3011 late Thursday in New York. The dollar rose to 77.94 yen from 77.91 yen. ___ AP Business Writer Elaine Kurtenbach in Shanghai contributed to this report. ___

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Crunch Time: Bank Downgrade, Credit Squeeze Signal Possible Return To 2008

December 15, 2011

The situation in Europe is hitting global credit markets, making it harder for companies and banks to secure loans. Investors are buying fewer corporate bonds, and banks are finding it more difficult to borrow from each other. On Thursday, as the European Central Bank again resisted pleas for it to rescue the eurozone, worries about a severe credit crunch along the lines of the 2008 crisis grew. “In some ways this is part two of the U.S. financial crisis,” said Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, an economist at the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center. Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings downgraded nine major banks on Thursday, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. While acknowledging that the banks are in better shape now than in 2008, the rating agency cited vulnerability to the increased market turmoil stemming from “economic developments and regulatory challenges.” Many fear that one cataclysmic event — such as the default of Italy or a major European bank failure — could freeze credit markets, plunging the world into a recession similar to the downturn resulting from the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008. “As the situation in Europe goes, so does the global economy,” said Adrian Miller, fixed-income strategist at Miller Tabak Roberts Securities. Miller said that the bond markets have been moving in sync with the European crisis; recently he’s noted that investors are growing wary of lending even to so-called safe businesses. Global investors are buying about 40 percent fewer new high-quality U.S. corporate bonds than in mid-May, according to Miller. Meanwhile, there’s been about a 70 percent plunge in the purchasing of new, risky U.S. corporate bonds: While global investors bought about $8 billion of these bonds per week in mid-May, now they are buying just $2.5 billion. As European banks slash lending in order to meet new capital requirements, European companies have been hit somewhat harder. Purchases of newly issued risky European corporate bonds have plunged about 80 percent since mid-May, according to Miller. Banks also are finding it harder to borrow from one another. It is now more than twice as expensive to secure a three-month loan from another bank than at the beginning of August, according to Rich Gordon, managing director of fixed-income market strategy at Wells Fargo Securities. On Thursday Fitch downgraded Bank of America and Goldman Sachs’ long-term debt to A from A+, Barclays’ long-term debt to A from AA-, BNP Paribas’ long-term debt to A+ from AA-, Credit Suisse’s long-term debt to A from AA-, and Deutsche Bank’s long-term debt to A from AA-. The downgrades reflect “balance sheet damage” emanating from the increased riskiness of European sovereign debt, but they would not result in any major economic repercussions, said Michael Spence, a Nobel Prize-winning economics professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business. “There has been some significant credit tightening already,” Spence said. He added that the Federal Reserve ultimately would step in if credit markets dry up. “If left unattended, it will cause some damage, but I don’t think it will be left unattended,” he said. In a speech in Berlin on Thursday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi disappointed investors when he repeated that the bank would not come to the rescue and step in to buy large amounts of government bonds. “There is no external savior for a country that doesn’t want to save itself,” Draghi said. In an attempt to reassure the audience and jittery investors across the globe, Draghi said that “a return of confidence,” stemming from government budget cuts, likely would materialize and mitigate the economic damage of austerity measures in struggling countries. Observers were not reassured. “There isn’t any likelihood of it [confidence] returning,” said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wells Fargo Securities. Bryson added that the ECB is the only organization with the firepower to save European countries and banks from default, and that ultimately when it seems to have no other choice, it will most likely step in. “Authorities at least in the past have always blinked, or generally have always blinked,” Bryson said. Markets slightly recovered but remained cautious on Thursday after the previous day’s turmoil. The interest rate on 10-year Italian government bonds fell slightly but remained above the unsustainable 7 percent level. Russian leaders said that they would step in to help, indicating that the country would lend more than $10 billion to the International Monetary Fund, as a backstop for struggling European governments. Europe’s troubles first came to light in 2010 when Greece’s debt troubles caused a financial panic. And the situation continues to evolve, reminding some of the slow motion pace of the U.S. housing market collapse, which took hold in 2007 and triggered the financial crisis in 2008. After Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy in September of that year, banks stopped lending to each other, fearful that more failures were coming. Banks hiked the cost of their loans to other banks (like they’re doing now), making it more difficult for banks to come up with the capital necessary to cover all of their liabilities. Meanwhile, as more investments in the housing market fell apart, banks were forced to pay out insurance on those mortgage defaults. But they didn’t have the money. Companies that relied on short-term financing to maintain their daily operations found themselves on the brink of shutting down, as loans became prohibitively expensive. Major banks were about to fail. After the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve rescued the U.S. banking system from collapse, credit remained tight in 2009, and companies that were unable to secure loans ended expansion plans and laid off workers, reducing consumer demand and worsening the economy. That forced companies to cut even more workers and making lending even tighter. Though the vicious cycle of layoffs and reductions in lending has ended, it could resume again if the crisis in Europe spirals out of control with a default by the Italian government, said Stijn van Nieuwerburgh, associate finance professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business. “As banks become less and less solvent, or their bottom lines are hit, they’ll be less inclined to do risky lending,” he said. Catherine New contributed reporting.

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Ben Bernanke: Fed Doesn’t Have ‘Authority’ To Bail Out Europe

December 14, 2011

WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Republican senators on Wednesday the Fed can’t and won’t provide bailout funds to support European banks or nations, lawmakers said. “We’re all concerned, is the American taxpayer going to be bailing out European nations and banks,” Senator Lindsey Graham told reporters after a meeting with the Fed chairman. “He said, no, he doesn’t have the intention or authority to do that,” Graham said. (Reporting By Mark Felsenthal and Pedro Nicolaci da Costa; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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MF Global’s Collapse Puts Self-Regulation In Harsh Light

December 14, 2011

WASHINGTON (Philip Shishkin) – Two weeks after MF Global’s collapse, officials from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission briefed Senate staff on the brokerage firm’s final days. When asked about reports that the brokerage firm had written checks that bounced when customers tried to cash them, the regulators had an admission that surprised the room: they didn’t know about the bad checks. “This seemed like something they should be aware of,” a Senate staffer present at the meeting recalled. A CFTC spokesman declined to comment. Customers still have no explanation of what happened to MF Global and some $1 billion missing from its customer accounts more than a month after the firm’s failure. And regulators struggling to solve the mystery are now forced to play catch-up. That’s in part because over the past decade, as trading volume soared, federal regulators eased direct oversight of the industry and handed more regulatory powers to the major exchanges. Now, this self-policing arrangement is prompting concerns about the regulators’ and the exchanges’ ability to detect and deter suspicious conduct in the rapidly expanding marketplace. A look at the recent history of self-regulation shows the government repeatedly raised concerns about the resources the major exchanges dedicate to market oversight, while the federal agency also experienced staff cutbacks and retreated from hands-on policing. Both the federal regulators and the exchange where MF Global operated, the CME Group, maintain they did all they could in the run-up to MF Global’s collapse. But calls are growing for a better system of auditing and enforcement to prevent similar crises in the future. “I think we’ve gone too far in allowing the exchanges to be so self-regulatory that it’s obfuscated the need for the cop to be on the beat all the time,” says Bart Chilton, a Democratic commissioner on the CFTC. Even the industry itself is acknowledging that there will need to be some changes. While defending the self-regulatory system, Dan Roth, president of the National Futures Association, said “we should be able to identify certain frailties of the current structure that will need to be addressed.” THE FUTURES POLICE Self-regulation is the hallmark of the U.S. futures industry. Proponents argue that by placing oversight in the hands of the people who really understand the industry, the system benefits everyone. Critics point to the recent transformation of the exchange business, away from a non-profit cooperative model, as a reason the exchanges’ commercial interests are overshadowing their market-oversight role. Though it dates back to the middle of the 19th century, the self-regulatory nature of trading futures got a boost in 2000 with the passage of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act. The main thrust of the bill, signed into law by Bill Clinton in the waning days of his presidency, was to exempt the rapidly growing market for certain types of financial and energy derivatives and swaps from federal futures regulation. The law was lobbied heavily by the financial industry, which argued that too many rules were hindering financial innovation and economic growth. But it became an easy target after the 2008 financial crisis, in which these types of complex financial products played a role. So lawmakers passed the Dodd-Frank financial-reform law, which pulled the swaps back under the federal regulatory umbrella and instructed the CFTC to write new rules to govern them. Another, less-discussed, purpose of the 2000 deregulation effort was to limit the prescriptive powers of the CFTC and to give more freedom to the exchanges to set their own rules. The goal was “to provide regulatory relief to futures and options exchanges,” James Newsome, who was the agency’s chairman in 2001, said at the time. The overall U.S. futures and options industry grew nearly five-fold between 2000 and 2010 when 7.12 billion futures and options contracts were traded, according to Futures Industry Association. Just as futures trading was exploding in volume, the federal agency was taking a step back from direct oversight of the markets both because of the 2000 deregulation and because of agency understaffing. For instance, when the CFTC in 2003 went after a futures trader allegedly operating a foreign currency boiler room, a court told the agency it had no jurisdiction. Even in areas where the federal agency retained jurisdiction, direct oversight of the markets rested with the futures exchanges themselves. And those exchanges began ripping up their century-old business models and consolidating rapidly. Ever since a group of brokers formed the Chicago Board of Trade in 1848, the exchange industry was organized into nonprofit cooperatives of brokers setting their own rules. Technological and competitive pressures began building on the exchanges that forced more change. In 2000, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shed its old cooperative structure and soon went public. It later bought the Chicago Board of Trade. And then the newly formed CME Group Inc. acquired the owner of New York’s mercantile and commodities exchanges. That made CME Group a dominant U.S. exchange, and one of the largest in the world. OVERSIGHT STAFF CUTS FLAGGED As CME Group grew, federal regulators were relying on the exchange operator to be their eyes and ears on the ground. But in several recent assessments, the CFTC said that CME failed to adequately staff its oversight arm, while some of its fines lacked the necessary bite to scare repeat offenders. Combined with the rapid growth in trading volume and complexity of financial products, these staff cuts “could impair the effectiveness of an exchange’s compliance program and impede enforcement,” federal regulators warned in a 2010 audit of the company. The flurry of mergers that swept the world of commodity exchanges was partly to blame for the alleged shortfalls, the regulators said. “Prudence suggests that when exchanges merge, they should avoid substantial reductions in their combined compliance staff,” federal regulators said in the 2010 audit, urging the company to add employees. In a follow-up audit a year later, the regulators criticized CME Group for the same alleged staffing shortfalls and noted the issue is “of particular concern because of the substantial share of the entire U.S. futures and options marketplace accounted for by the CME Group exchanges.” A CME official said that merger synergies “didn’t reveal themselves quite as quickly” but noted that CME’s exchanges have always conducted effective internal oversight. Since those audits, CME says it increased its market oversight staff to about 150 employees and has been increasingly relying on technology to keep tabs on the market amid large growth in the trading volume. FINES A SLAP ON THE WRIST In their recent audits, federal regulators also said that fine amounts for some types of trading-related violations “may be low enough that traders could view them as merely a cost of doing business.” The regulators urged the CME Group to have a fine schedule that would penalize repeat offenders with progressively higher fines. The issue has prompted federal regulators to step in with their own penalties in cases where they thought the CME was merely slapping traders on the wrist. Consider the track record of Edward Sarvey and David Sklena, two longtime Chicago Board of Trade brokers who traded U.S. government debt. By 2004, Sarvey had already drawn five penalties for trading violations, with exchange fines ranging from $100 to $25,000 and short bans from the trading floor. Sklena had been sanctioned twice, according to records from the National Futures Association. In 2004, the two traders engaged in what amounted to insider trading on futures pegged to five-year Treasury notes, according to court documents. The trades netted Sarvey $357,000, while Sklena earned $1.65 million in a single morning. Their customers lost about $2 million, court documents say. In 2007, the Chicago exchange fined Sarvey and Sklena $125,000 and $175,000 respectively, and banned them from trading for about two months. But federal regulators deemed the penalties insufficient and brought their own civil case against the pair in 2008. That complaint morphed into a federal criminal indictment. Sklena was found guilty of fraud last year and sentenced to five years in prison. Sarvey died before the trial. His former lawyer, John Legutki, says he is “surprised and saddened” by the escalation of the case from “relatively minor” exchange penalties to a full-blown criminal prosecution. “This all weighed on him very heavily,” he says of Sarvey. The case also weighed on federal futures regulators who say it is indicative of soft exchange penalties that fail to deter unscrupulous brokers. “It is not an isolated case,” a CFTC official told Reuters. The agency declined to provide numbers on how many times it intervened to correct what it thought were insufficient exchange sanctions. A CME official said that it was the exchange that first caught Sarvey and Sklena, and that the subsequent federal case was built on “all the good work that the exchange did.” He said that “maybe with some exceptions, (federal regulators) find the fines and the penalties that we issue are appropriate.” CME also says that the number of enforcement actions brought by its subsidiary exchanges grew from 83 in 2000 to 132 so far in 2011. During his congressional testimony on MF Global’s collapse on December 8, CME Group’s executive chairman Terrence Duffy said one way to deter future abuses would be to have “stricter penalties.” Duffy said the exchange had conducted its audits and spot checks of MF Global “at the highest professional level” and that the alleged misappropriation of customer funds by the firm was “disguised from all regulators.” In a common refrain, many market participants have accused CME Group of not doing enough to supervise large brokerages whose business and trading volume are key to the company’s bottom line. “I’ve had more than one person say to me that all CME wants is volume, volume, volume, and they don’t necessarily care about the integrity of the marketplace,” says Jerod Leman, an account executive at Wellington Commodities, a Carmel, Ind.-based broker that works with farmers who lost money in the MF Global collapse. In 2010, CME reported that its average daily trading volume grew to 12.2 million contracts, up 19 percent from the year before. “DON’T FIX WHAT AIN’T BROKE” This is not new territory for commodity exchanges. A prominent farmer advocate in 1932 complained that the members of the Chicago Board of Trade “have set up a little government of their own, in which trials are held like a secret lodge,” according to Jerry Markham’s 2001 book “The Financial History of The United States.” Since those days, the futures business has grown to include hedge funds and other investors, large and small, trading at high volume and using increasingly esoteric financial products, which makes oversight more challenging. For its part, CME argues it has an obvious self-interest in policing its trading floors because if traders lose faith in the integrity of the exchange, CME Group will lose business. In a 2006 hearing on the matter, CME’s chief executive Craig Donohue dismissed assertions of a conflict between the company’s profit-making and regulatory missions as “conjecture” and said “don’t fix what ain’t broke.” Ted Butler, a veteran silver trader, has been pushing Comex, the New York metals exchange owned by CME Group, to investigate allegations of price manipulation on the silver futures market by a handful of large brokerages. But, he says, the exchange hasn’t shown much interest. “It is a continuing mystery how the conflicted CME could be responsible for any regulatory oversight given their inherent clear conflict of interest,” Butler, who himself had drawn a CFTC sanction in the 1980s, wrote in a recent newsletter. The federal agency is conducting its own investigation into the silver market, having found no evidence of wrongdoing in an earlier probe. A CME official declined to comment, citing the ongoing federal inquiry, with which the exchange is cooperating. CME SIDING WITH BUSINESS In a rapidly growing futures industry, CME Group often has to wade into policy debates between federal regulators and the businesses they oversee. In several of those debates, CME sided with the firms in opposing disclosure rules and trading curbs that could cut into those firms’, and the CME’s, bottom line. The CME, for instance, opposed registration requirements for high-frequency traders. CFTC officials hoped the registration would force the traders, some based overseas, to disclose more about themselves and their trading software, and allow regulators to step in quickly in case of trouble that was seen in the so-called “flash crash” of 2010. Because of the sheer volume and the number of transactions, high-frequency traders provide an attractive business to the exchange. CME Group balked at efforts to saddle them with additional requirements. A CME official says there’s no uniform definition of what constitutes high-frequency trading, and that CME’s internal systems already provide the exchange with “incredibly granular information that allows us to look at trading activity.” Last year, for instance, CME Group fined a high-frequency trader called Infinium Capital Management $850,000 for glitches in its algorithm that unleashed rapid-fire trading orders and caused a brief spike in oil prices. UNDERFUNDING OVERSIGHT Over the past decade, the federal agency has tried to address potential conflicts of interest within the exchanges by insisting they appoint independent directors to their boards and increase the funding and independence of their regulatory oversight committees. “There was a concern about underfunding the regulatory function of the exchange,” recalls Sharon Brown-Hruska who served as a CFTC commissioner between 2002 and 2006. Major exchanges going public only heightened concerns about self-regulation, she says. CME Group, and other exchange operators, resisted what they saw as the federal agency’s unwarranted meddling. But the CFTC prevailed and decreed the exchange boards should be more than one-third independent and that regulatory oversight committees should be properly funded. Ever since the passage of the Dodd-Frank law, the CFTC has been consumed with writing new rules to prevent future abuses in the derivatives industry. As a result, the resources the agency can devote to enforcing the existing rules may have suffered. “Unfortunately, in response to the financial crisis, the CFTC has been off on a series of tangents, proposing one regulation after another,” Senator Pat Roberts, a Republican, said at a recent hearing. “Meanwhile, back at the ranch for the first time ever, we have a major problem. The agency says it is being asked to effectively walk and chew gum at the same time, in an era when Congress is in no mood to increase the size of the federal government. CFTC now has about 700 employees, a 10% increase since the 1990s. In the same time period, the futures market has grown five-fold, CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler said in recent congressional testimony. Two weeks after MF Global’s bankruptcy, Congress denied the Obama administration’s request for a CFTC budget increase despite the agency’s insistence that it needs more money to do its job. “The CFTC just doesn’t have the staffing and the resources to audit the brokerages,” says a former senior agency official. That means the CFTC will likely continue to rely on the exchanges to police themselves, although the agency may choose to take a closer look at the markets in some cases. Shortly after the MF Global bankruptcy, for instance, federal regulators said they would conduct a review of the major futures brokerages to make sure their customer accounts are intact. (Reporting by Philip Shishkin; Editing by Tim Dobbyn) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Republican Leaders Quietly Support Unemployment Reauthorization

November 30, 2011

WASHINGTON — For the second year in a row, Congress must decide during the holiday season whether to renew federal jobless benefits for people out of work six months or longer. While Democrats have been making a huge fuss, with a press conference Wednesday featuring hundreds of unemployed workers, Republicans have been relatively quiet — but that doesn’t mean they’re against reauthorizing the benefits. Republican leaders in both Houses of Congress have expressed support for continuing the benefits, saying the holdup is just a matter of how the legislation is put together. “We’re going to be discussing between the House and Senate ways to deal with both continuation of the payroll tax reduction and unemployment insurance extension before the end of the year,” Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Tuesday. “And in the end, it will have to be worked out in a joint negotiation between a Democratic Senate and a Republican House.” If the benefits are not reauthorized, 1.8 million jobless will stop receiving checks over the course of January, according to worker advocacy group the National Employment Law Project. The federal benefits kick in for laid off workers who use up to six months of state-funded compensation without finding work. Congress routinely provides extensions during recessions and hasn’t dropped extended benefits with the national unemployment rate above 7.2 percent. Yet the need to reauthorize benefits has been overshadowed by the looming expiration of a payroll tax cut put in place last December, which would result in a tax hike on every working American — an average hike of $1,000 — a scenario Republicans would like to avoid. And Congress also needs to pass a so-called “doc fix” by the end of the year to prevent a 27 percent cut in pay for doctors who see Medicare patients. “Nobody is coming out with any definitive statements on [unemployment insurance]. Last year they were happy to,” Judy Conti, a lobbyist for NELP, told HuffPost. “I think it’s indicative of the fact that on a bipartisan basis people understand that workers families and the economy need these programs to continue.” The sticking point over renewing the benefits through next year will be their roughly $50 billion cost. Republicans typically insist that the aid must be “paid for,” but that calculation may not apply if the benefits can be attached to something attractive like a tax cut. Republicans blocked renewed unemployment aid last year until President Obama agreed to extend the Bush-era tax cuts for two more years — at a cost much greater than unemployment. Earlier this year President Obama pressed Congress to pass a jobs package that included many items Republicans favored — for instance a “Bridge to Work” training program — but so far congressional Democrats have not signaled support for those programs. Many members of Congress expected the deficit reduction super committee to craft a deal that included the benefits, but the committee turned out to be less super than advertised . “Any kind of grand deal that we’ve been after has eluded us,” House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) said Tuesday, referring to the failed broader talks on the budget and debt. “So let’s try and work incrementally towards a conclusion this session that can benefit all Americans. Because we Republicans do care about people that out — that are out of work. We don’t want to raise taxes on anybody. We want to provide the help to the physicians and the providers in the health care arena in this country, and we want to make sure this country has a sound national defense policy.” Even Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), who suggested during an standoff on jobless benefits last summer that unemployed people blow the money on drugs, sounded sympathetic to jobseekers on Wednesday. “Nobody really has a real quick answer. We’re studying it, looking at it. We’re clearly going to have to do something — nobody wants to see people suffer,” Hatch told reporters outside the Senate floor on Tuesday. “There’s a huge underemployment rate as you know, of 16, 18 percent, somewhere in that area. People don’t even want to look for jobs anymore. There oughta be some incentives to find jobs, to get to work. It’s easier said than done. I think there’s a general consensus that we need to help people.”

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Dave Johnson: Will Republicans Shut Down The FAA Again To Help Delta’s Union Busting?

November 29, 2011

Once again Republicans are ready to shut down the FAA to help a union-busting effort by Delta Airlines. At issue is a provision added to the FAA funding reauthorization that changes the rules for union elections, saying that anyone not voting must be counted as a “no” vote. So if the company can just keep people from voting, the union loses even if everyone that shows up to vote says that they want a union. Delta Airlines, called ” The Official Airline of the One Percent ,” is fighting to keep unions out, and Republicans — in their usual pay-for-play fashion — are assisting. The Washington Post, reporting recently in, Chances for long-term FAA funding bill seen as bleak , explained Delta’s interest, It is a dispute over a labor ruling that would make it easier for employees of Delta Air Lines to unionize. House Republicans are dead set on undoing a ruling by the National Mediation Board, which said that airline unionization efforts should be decided by a majority of those who vote. The ruling negated a long-standing rule that said eligible voters who opted not to vote would be counted as voting against unionization. The NMB ruling is expected to have its most immediate impact on Delta, which has so far staved off union organizers. Last week, Talking Points Memo reported that, Just In Time For The Holidays: FAA Fight Heats Up … , … the House and Senate are … supposed to pass long-term legislation to reauthorize FAA programs. But a dispute over worker rights has held up the bill for months and even led to a partial FAA shutdown earlier this year. Rinse, repeat. Republicans want to make it more difficult for transportation workers to unionize by requiring officials to count abstentions as votes against forming a union. This provision underlies the stalemate between the House and Senate on a so-called permanent reauthorization. TPM reports that the Communications Workers of America are asking people to contact specific members of Congress to ask them to set aside this union-busing effort and pass FAA funding. The Communications Workers of America will target vulnerable Republicans with 1,300,000 phone calls, mailers, and an online pressure campaign, according to a release sent my way. “It is beyond time to finalize a long-term FAA Reauthorization bill that improves our aviation infrastructure, grows our economy, creates hundreds of thousands of new jobs and keeps elections fair for air and rail employees,” the flyer reads. “Congress is very close to passing a long-term FAA Reauthorization bill – after 22 extensions! But Delta Air Lines continues to lobby Republican leadership to include an unrelated, controversial, union-busting provision in the legislation to benefit the company. Call your Member of Congress and House Leader Eric Cantor TODAY and tell them to stop playing political games and pass a clean, long-term FAA Reauthorization bill with no special interest provisions.” The targeted members are below. Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA); Rep John Mica (R-FL); Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R-CA); Rep. Charlie Dent (R-PA); Rep. Robert Dold (R-IL); Rep. Sean Duffy (R-WI); Rep. Blake Farenhold (R-TX); Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA); Rep. Richard Hanna (R-NY); Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD); Rep. Nan Hayworth (R-NY); Rep. Leonard Lance (R-NJ); Rep. Tom Latham (R-IA); Rep. Dan Lungren (R-CA); Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV); Rep. Tom Petri (R-WI); Rep. Tom Reed (R-NY); Rep. Reid Ribble (R-WI); Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ); Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH); Rep. Chip Cravaack (R-MN-08) According to and Aviation Week report, Angry Rockefeller Calls For Help In Passing FAA Reauthorization Bill , West Virginia Senator Jay Rockefeller talked about the FAA union-busting situation in a Nov 14 speech to the Aero Club in Washington, DC, [emphasis added] Without naming the issues specifically, Rockefeller alluded to problems with a provision repealing National Mediation Board rules that has been blamed by members of both parties for holding up a resolution on the bill. And though Rockefeller in the past has blamed Delta Air Lines and its CEO, Richard Anderson, for the impasse, he restricted his comments Monday to “one airline” without naming the carrier. Rockefeller suggested that fixing the wording in the House version of the FAA bill is not in his purview because the Senate Commerce Committee does not have control over it. The Communications Workers of America released this video: This post originally appeared at Campaign for America’s Future (CAF) at their Blog for OurFuture . I am a Fellow with CAF. Sign up here for the CAF daily summary .

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Steven Strauss: Actually, Despite GOP Claims — the U.S. Isn’t Over-regulated

November 29, 2011

The GOP presidential candidates believe, as an article of faith, that the United States is an overly-regulated society. They want to eliminate “unnecessary” regulations and even entire regulatory agencies to, in their view, unleash the growth potential of American business. Governor Perry wants to eliminate 3 federal regulatory agencies (2 he named; one whose name he couldn’t remember), Ron Paul wants to eliminate 5 agencies, and so on ( Republican Presidential Debate , November 9th 2011). The GOP candidates claim that the U.S. regulatory environment is not competitive with that of our peer group, and risks losing jobs to other countries. Still another article of faith among GOP candidates is that the regulatory scheme has worsened under President Obama. I describe these as “articles of faith”, because to my knowledge — they have not shown any non-partisan research, or international benchmarks, to demonstrate that our overall regulatory environment is particularly burdensome. Leaving aside the GOP candidates’ anecdotal views, it is helpful to examine real data that compares the U.S. regulatory burden with that of our peer group. The World Bank conveniently prepares an Ease of Doing Business Index (Index) whereby: ‘Economies are ranked on their ease of doing business, from 1 – 183. A high ranking on the ease of doing business index means the regulatory environment is more conducive to the starting and operation of a local firm. This index averages the country’s percentile rankings on 10 topics, made up of a variety of indicators, giving equal weight to each topic. The rankings for all economies are benchmarked to June 2011.’ As with any index of this nature, this Index is not a perfect proxy for each country’s actual level of regulatory burden. Nonetheless, it is a good indicator of how the U.S. compares to its peer group and to a list of 183 other countries. The Index examines: starting a business, protecting investors, enforcing contracts, among other relevant topics. The Index data can be sorted three ways: 1. Large Countries (List 1 below): I view this as our peer group. In this category, the U.S. is the easiest country where one can do business. 2. High Income Countries (List 2 below): In this category, the U.S. is the fourth easiest for doing business, behind several much smaller high-income countries. 3. All Countries (List 3 below, including many under-developed countries): Again, the U.S. ranks fourth. The World Bank Index samples 10 regulatory categories, so is not exhaustive across all regulations. But it clearly shows that overall — we are among the easiest of countries in which to conduct business, particularly when compared with our peers. As for the Obama administration’s performance, a recent General Accounting Office study found no particular increase in the regulatory burden by comparison with the preceding Bush administration ( Bloomberg News , ‘Obama Wrote 5% Fewer Rules Than Bush’, October 25, 2011). Finally, an additional interesting piece of data comes from a recent survey of high net worth entrepreneurs in China — 60% of which are considering emigrating, most to the U.S. The reasons cited include: the strength of the American regulatory system — and the resulting safety of our food, environment, workplace, etc. ( Bloomberg Business Week ,’China’s Super-Rich Buy a Better Life Abroad’, November 22, 2011). Not every regulation or law in the U.S. is perfect; not every regulator is a paragon of virtue. We can all name individual failures. Certainly, we should strive, as a country, to be the best we can be, and compare ourselves against international standards. But we cannot make our economy stronger or more competitive by making judgments and major structural changes based on faith — rather than reality. The data collected for the U.S. and its peer group — over several years — does not show that the U.S. has a systematically bad regulatory environment. But if we eliminate several major regulators (e.g., EPA) we: a) Will likely make our country significantly less safe, less healthy, and more unpleasant, b) Won’t improve our international competitiveness, and c) May actually dissuade foreign investors from coming to the U.S. What do you think? List 1: Large Countries Ranked for Ease of Doing Business (Top 5) 1. U.S. 2. UK 3. Republic of Korea 4. Saudi Arabia 5. Canada List 2: High Income Countries Ranked for Ease of Doing Business (Top 5) 1. Singapore 2. Hong Kong 3. New Zealand 4. U.S. 5. Denmark List 3: All Countries Ranked for Ease of Doing Business (Top 5) 1. Singapore 2. Hong Kong 3. New Zealand 4. U.S. 5. Denmark Steven Strauss was founding Managing Director of the Center for Economic Transformation at the New York City Economic Development Corporation. He will be an Advanced Leadership Fellow at Harvard University for 2011-2012. He has a Ph.D. in Management from Yale University. Follow him on Twitter @steven_strauss.

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99 Percenters Hurt More By Austerity Measures Than The 1 Percent: Study

November 29, 2011

Government belt tightening hurts the budgets of the 99 percent more than those of top earners, a recent study finds. Income inequality rises when countries use spending cuts instead of tax hikes to deal with budget deficits, according to a new paper from researchers Luca Agnello and Ricardo Sousa. The paper analyzes data from 18 countries between 1970 and 2010. The findings come after a 12-member congressional panel failed to agree on measures to reduce the budget deficit in time to avoid triggering $1.2 in spending cuts starting in January 2013. What deadlocked the committee? A stalemate over whether to use spending cuts or tax hikes to reduce the deficit. “During periods of fiscal consolidation, income inequality significantly rises,” the researchers wrote in the study. “Moreover, fiscal adjustments that are led by spending cuts tend to have a more detrimental impact on income distribution than those driven by tax hikes. Similarly, we show that the top 1% income share in total income increases after consolidation.” Spending cuts are a controversial around the globe right now. In Greece, unions are planning a mass strike on December 1 to protest the 2012 austerity budget as lawmakers grapple with a sovereign debt crisis. Greece’s negative reaction to the budget may be because they could face government salary cuts or lose some social services if the budget is passed. The majority of residents of France, Germany and Spain — like their Greek counterparts — say that it’s important to make sure no one else is left in need . But if European leaders implement an austerity budget while the economy is weak, it may have less of an effect on income inequality , the study found. Fiscal austerity that takes place during banking crisis episodes leads to a negligible effect on income inequality, while budget tightening in the absence of crises boosts the income gap. Nations that implement austerity after a banking crisis is resolved experience an “amplified” effect on income inequality. The wealth gap in the U.S. has skyrocketed in the last thirty years . The top one percent of earners saw their incomes grow by 275 percent between 1979 and 2007, according to the Congressional Budget Office, while the bottom fifth of earners saw their incomes rise by 20 percent. Americans’ median income fell for the second year in a row in 2010 to $26,364, while nearly half of households lack access to basic needs . At the same time, the 400 richest Americans control as much wealth as the bottom 50 percent of earners.

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Richard (RJ) Eskow: Tax the Rich! In Fact, Let’s Double Their Taxes

November 23, 2011

Conservatives say they want to “bring back” the old USA, the one that existed during those decades of the twentieth century they only seem to see through a gauzy golden haze. Whatever its problems, that country was a place where Republicans and Democrats agreed on two simple principles: That the most fortunate among us should pay their fair share, and that our government must invest in the nation and its future. When Rick Perry says he wants to bring back “the America I where I grew up,” he’s talking about the era when Dwight D. Eisenhower, a Republican President, built the Federal highway system. One of the reasons Eisenhower was able to do that is that the top tax rate was much higher than it is today. While today’s highest marginal today is 35% and capital gains are taxed at only 15%, the highest tax bracket was 91% the year Rick Perry was born. Whenever I talk about tax brackets I’m attacked by right-wingers who say I don’t understand, that high taxes discourage job creators. They’ll say things like “You hippies just don’t get it! If taxes are too high rich people will stop working and investing. The Job Creators will go away!” Well, I do get it. When I was spent a student year in Great Britain the top marginal tax rate was 102%. Once a person reached a certain level of income, they had to pay more in taxes than they earned. And a few years before that, George Harrison made a compelling case against the 95% tax bracket on the Revolver album by singing “Taxman.” (The line is “that’s one for you, nineteen for me.” I make that a 95% marginal tax rate, but you can check my math if you like.) So I’ll come right out and admit it: Taxes can be too high. But that doesn’t answer the biggest question of all: What’s the ideal top tax bracket? Where can we set the percentage so that it provides the most revenue for the Federal government without discouraging high earners from making more money? Thanks to a new and very thoughtful paper by economists Peter Diamond and Emmanuel Saez , we have the answer: 76%. That’s right. The most effective top tax bracket in this country, the one that will provide the most revenue for the Federal government, is 76%. Know what that means, ladies and gentleman of Washington DC ? That’s the rate that will cut the deficit the fastest. You see where I’m going with this, don’t you? All those self-proclaimed “deficit hawks” in Washington have their answer: Double the top marginal tax rate to 70%. I say 70%, rather than 76%, to show that we’re reasonable people. It’s true that the six-point difference would save some billionaires tens of millions of dollars. Sure, that’s a lot of deficit-cutting revenue to lose, but it’s important to make them feel good about themselves. A 70% rate will show them that we care about them enough to lose all that money. That ought to bolster their confidence. Democrats have been framing the tax debate around the issue of letting the Bush tax cuts expire for the highest earners. That would bring the top tax rate to 39.5% from its current 35%. But why think small? Why embrace the radical, reckless, and irresponsible fiscal behavior of the Reagan era? A 70% tax rate will take us back to the tax levels we had during this country’s boom years. Just to be clear, this tax rate wouldn’t double taxes for the wealthy. It would only apply to income about the highest cutoff point. What should that cutoff point be? Again, we’re willing to be reasonable, so let’s make it $1,000,000. No, wait! My manager’s in a good mood. Let’s make it $2,000,000, with graduated increases that begin at the $400,000 level. It wouldn’t even affect everybody in the 1%. Agree to these terms and you can drive your new, lower-deficit Federal government off the lot right now! And no, I’m not kidding. They’ll say it’s politically impossible. Really? Dwight Eisenhower’s economic platform is politically impossible? Then change the range of possibility. There was a time when 15% tax rates for hedge fund managers was politically impossible, too, but they got it done. We need a little more can-do spirit around this place, people! Conservatives will say, What about jobs? Lower taxes create jobs! There’s a simple answer to that one: Since the wealthy have had today’s low tax rates for ten years, where are the jobs? That theory’s been conclusively disproved. Higher rates don’t discourage the real job creators, the people who really create and innovate and build. 70% was the top tax rate when Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak started Apple and it didn’t stop them. These findings may feel intuitively “wrong” to conservatives (although they don’t feel wrong to Paul Krugman or others in a position to know). But if conservatives want to challenge these conclusions, they better be prepared to tell us why they think this is wrong: Kevin Drum quite reasonably allows that “(government) revenue maximization isn’t our only social goal.” He’s right, of course. Job creation’s another big one, but we’ve covered that. So is eliminating poverty, educating our children, ensuring a secure retirement, and making sure nobody dies from a lack of food, shelter, or medical care. People have other goals for our society, too, of course. They range from inspiring ones like freedom, liberty, and self-reliance, to unspoken and less admirable ones like the right to crush your competitors by any means necessary, the right to deceive consumers out of their hard-earned savings, or the right to indulge in gross overconsumption and meaningless excess at others’ expense. I’m inspired by freedom, liberty, and self-reliance too. But I think the young Jobs and Wozniak were free and self-reliant under a 70% tax rate. I don’t think Dwight D. Eisenhower was a socialist oppressor of the masses. And while I’m open to an argument that says doubling the top tax rate offends core American values, I can’t think of one. Eisenhower seemed pretty American to me. So the ball’s in your court, conservatives. Make your case. But until then let the new rallying cry be, Double the top tax rate! It’s time for those who have benefited from our system to pull their own weight again. Or as politicians used to say but don’t seem to anymore, “From whom much is given, much is expected.” They’ll say I hate the rich, but I don’t. I used to work with them. I admire the ones who ignore their own self interest and work for the betterment of all. Are the Rick Perrys of this country suggesting that today’s rich people aren’t as patriotic as they were in the fifties? You’re not going to bring back the America you loved as a child with that attitude, Mister! I don’t hate the other ones either, the greed junkies or the scam artists. I care about them. I want them to live in a stable, just, and vital society with a strong and growing economy. I want them to be able to deliver products to their customers using safe and efficient highways, railroads, and bridges. I want them to have a healthy, well-paid, and well-educated workforce, now and in the generations to come. Most of all, I care about their consciences. Everybody in the nation’s capital wants to reduce the deficit, so we know they’ll be thrilled with this solution. It’s like they’re always saying: Why, government has to act more like a family does! When Mom and Dad sit at the kitchen table paying their bills, they have to face facts. There comes a time when they’ve got to look up from the papers scattered all around them and say “Honey, we need more income.” Earning as much as you can is the responsible way to behave. Raise the top rate to 70%? That’s just doing what any smart family would do. Good news, Washington! Fiscal sanity is on its way. The solution to your deficit problem is here, and so is your new slogan: 70% or bust.

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Rabbi Shmuley Boteach: Why Critics of Wall Street Exist Among Avowed Capitalists

November 21, 2011

A Wall Street banker friend of mine dismissed Occupy Wall Street as a bunch of socialists with too much time on their hands. Indeed, I myself criticized the protestors in an interview on CNN recently by saying that I lived under socialism in Western Europe for 11 years and the complete meltdown of their economies shows it leads to bankruptcy. I believe that people who can work have to work. I believe the government should be kept small and empower its citizens to be self-sufficient. I believe that human dignity is achieved through individual effort and receiving handouts undermines our self-sufficiency and our self-confidence. There have been times in my life when, due to financial pressures, I have had to turn for help from others. I obviously never felt good about it. It was humiliating, and I cannot imagine that anyone would believe that economic dependency of any kind should be a first choice. While government must, of course, provide a safety net for those in need, it dare never create an unhealthy reliance. But we should not dismiss the protests outright for, whatever they have morphed into, there exists an important message that ought to be heard. About 18 years ago I started writing columns about how the banking industry is taking over every other profession. My students at Oxford, where I had already served for four years as Rabbi, would discard their training as doctors and attorneys if the investment banks made them offers. I worried that the brain drain into banking would handicap professional talent in so many other sectors. How could it not? With the banks offering starting salaries in the hundreds of thousands of dollars and the potential to make tens of millions a year, you had to be crazy not to accept it. But even I could not foresee hedge fund managers routinely making half a billion dollars a year or feeling like failures for making just 10 to 20 million, a phenomenon I addressed in my book The Broken American Male . Now, since I am an avowed capitalist, why should there be any issue with banks or those who have legitimately found a means by which to produce staggering wealth, especially when a great many of the hedge fund managers known to me are highly charitable? For two reasons. The first is that any of us who have dealings with banks have learned just how awful they can be, how condescending, how greedy, and how dismissive. The second is that there seem to be two standards, one for Wall Street, the other for Main Street, and to the extent that OWS has garnered wider support, then it deserves it, because Wall Street refuses to reform itself and insists on retaining unfair privileges. I have earlier written of my battle with Bear Stearns over my treatment at the hands of a trader who tried to gorge me with fees. Then I had my issues with JP Morgan Chase, and I wrote about how, amid tens of billions of dollars in TARP money they received, they obstructed virtually every effort I attempted at a mortgage adjustment, which was the purpose of them receiving government assistance in the first place. Just getting someone on the phone was a near impossibility, and it was common, after waiting an hour to speak to someone, to suddenly have the line drop and nobody call you back. I have also had my run-ins with American Express and the utter incompetence and arrogance of some of the staff associated with the elite cards they offer, even as they charge you an annual fortune to have it. And if these were just my experiences, you could dismiss me as a grouch, but in the most prestigious and reliable news outlets, you will see endless horror stories of how the banks treat their customers. The same arrogance is manifest in the fact that the fund managers are insisting on retaining their absurd 15-percent capital gains loophole. Said loophole allows hedge fund managers and private equity firms to treat a substantial portion of their compensation as capital gains, meaning they are taxed at 15 percent rather than the 35-percent rate that applies to income such as wages and salary. To be sure, I think all taxes in this nation are way too high, and the last thing I want to see is tax raised anywhere. But I don’t want us little people to be suckers, either. And the idea that the tax rate is 35 percent on income over $379,150 but fund managers like John Paulson, earning as much as $15 billion in a single year, are able to pay a 15-percent tax rate on the majority of their income is unfair. The same of course applies to the bailouts that were given to banks but did not trickle down to end users like me. In August 2009 The New York Times released a story detailing former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s calls to his former firm, Goldman Sachs, in the days leading up to the A.I.G. bailout and financial collapse of 2008. Paulson asked for and received an ethics waiver from both the White House counsel’s office and the Treasury Department, allowing him to speak freely with Goldman Sachs chairman Lloyd Blankfein. Information obtained by The Times shows that during the week of the A.I.G. bailout Paulson spoke with Blankfein two dozen times, making their communication far more frequent than with any other bank chairman. Goldman Sachs, of course, was the bank that benefitted most from the A.I.G. bailout. All the above highlights a huge conflict of interest that the public is arrogantly told to accept as necessary on account of the “too big to fail” notion. And why, when the banks are borrowing money at 0.25 percent from the Federal Reserve, do we have to borrow at a minimum 3.25-percent prime rate that is often far greater for individuals with even a single credit blemish? Why the huge spread? This is where the objectors to Wall Street are gaining traction even among avowed capitalists, by demonstrating to the public that too many bankers insist on a privileged position, as if they are masters of the universe whom we have to support. I don’t want to see Wall Street punished, and I don’t want bankers treated any worse than anyone else. I reject class warfare. If people work hard and find ways to become extraordinarily wealthy, G-d bless them, and I hope they devote huge sums to charity. But just as the bankers should not be treated worse, they should not be treated better, either. What is needed is an even playing field, which, once achieved, will help reestablish the credibility of bankers and undermine their opposition. Rabbi Shmuley Boteach has just published Ten Conversations You Need to Have with Yourself (Wiley) and will shortly publish Kosher Jesus . Follow him on his website, www.shmuley.com , and on Twitter @RabbiShmuley .

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Goldman Sachs Names New Managing Directors, Amid Wall Street Layoffs

November 18, 2011

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) promoted 261 employees to managing directors this week, according to an internal memo sent this week, as the bank seeks to retain top talent amid a wave of layoffs across Wall Street. This year’s list represents a 19 percent drop from the 321 employees named managing director in 2010 and the lowest amount since 259 were promoted in 2008. The decline in promotions correlates with layoffs occurring at Goldman and most of its Wall Street competitors during a tough period for trading and investment banking revenue. Goldman’s overall workforce declined by 1,300 employees from June 30 to September 30 as the bank tries to wring out at least $1 billion in cost savings to protect its bottom line. During the quarter, Goldman lost $428 million, only the second quarterly loss in its 12 years as a public company, while revenue declined 60 percent from the year-ago period. Still, the bank is also working to retain talented young professionals, particularly in growth markets such as Asia and Latin America. In a presentation on Tuesday, Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein said nearly 300,000 people applied to work at Goldman Sachs in 2010 and 2011 and the bank hired less than 4 percent of that pool. “Our commitment to attract talented professionals doesn’t end with recruiting,” said Blankfein. “We commit significant resources to their continued development.” Managing director is a coveted position among more junior Goldman employees and often takes years to achieve. The position is one level below partner managing directors, the most senior position at the firm and a relic from its days as a private Wall Street partnership. Blankfein said the average tenure of a managing director is about 12 years, while partners average 15.5 years at the bank. Goldman declined to comment on the promotion memo, which was sent on Wednesday. (Reporting by Lauren Tara LaCapra in New York; editing by Andre Grenon) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Wendy’s Game Plan: Take On Five Guys

November 10, 2011

NEW YORK — Wendy’s new CEO on Wednesday laid out his action plan for re-energizing the fast-food chain against the backdrop of a quarterly loss driven by costs related to the recent sale of Arby’s. Emil Brolick, who joined Wendy’s as CEO less than two months ago, said in a call with analysts that he was focused on beating a relatively new crop of competitors of “fast-casual” brands like Five Guys and Smashburger. He gave more details on the company’s push to offer breakfast nationwide, something that virtually all of its major fast-food rivals already do. He also outlined plans to expand into international markets like Japan and Russia. Restaurants of all price ranges are facing the double challenge of higher costs for ingredients and customers who are wary of spending on eating out in the weak U.S. economy. Most fast-food chains are playing catch-up to the much larger McDonald’s Corp., which has fared well throughout the recession and its aftermath by emphasizing low prices, remodeling restaurants and adding products like smoothies and fancy coffee drinks. For years, Wendy’s had carved out a niche as quality fast-food for adults, but sales have suffered recently because customers decided its offerings had grown stale. Adding to that, after founder Dave Thomas died in 2002, Wendy’s struggled to find a new face for its advertising. Brolick, a company veteran who became CEO in September, said Wednesday that the company had gone through “an identity crisis.” Brolick’s strategy for Wendy’s is to be on the high end of the fast-food pecking order because he thinks customers will be willing to pay more than they would at other fats-food chains if the food is better. But they’ll also get the benefit of prices that are lower than those at a fast-casual chain, he reasons. “I’m not for the moment suggesting that we want to try to pretend to become a Five Guys or a Smashburger or something like that,” Brolick said on a call with analysts. “But I do believe that there is a significant opportunity in the marketplace for higher-quality products that are fresh, made-to-order products.” Wendy’s has been reshaping its menu with new ingredients and preparation methods for its salads, hamburgers and the rest of its offerings in an effort to attract more customers. Brolick said the new Dave’s Hot `N Juicy burgers had “exceeded our expectations” and would help Wendy’s reclaim its “leadership in the premium-quality hamburger category.” Wendy’s has previously talked about taking a “barbell” approach to pricing: offering high-priced and low-priced items to appeal to customers at both the top and bottom. On Wednesday, Wendy’s said later this month it will introduce a new “W” cheeseburger line, which it describes as mid-tier. Prices for those burgers would be around $2.99 – between the 99-cent “value” cheeseburger and the premium Dave’s Hot `N Juicy burger, which can cost nearly $6 for the biggest size. Wendy’s is hoping that customers who previously bought the cheap burgers will trade up to the middle. Additionally, Brolick said Wendy’s, the only major fast-food chain that doesn’t offer breakfast nationally, would take the same approach to breakfast as to the other meals: offer higher-quality items than other fast-food chains. He also said the company would stop reporting each quarter on how many restaurants were now offering breakfast, citing competitive reasons. Wendy’s hopes its efforts will help it boost results. For the period covering roughly July through September, Wendy’s Co. lost nearly $4 million, or a penny per share. In the same period a year ago, the chain lost $909,000, which was break-even per share. This quarter’s loss was largely from costs related to selling Arby’s in July, including expenses for cutting some jobs and retaining other employees. Wendy’s was combined with Arby’s for less than three years, in a deal engineered by hedge fund magnate Nelson Peltz. Wendy’s sold Arby’s to a private-equity firm in July, saying it needed to concentrate on improving Wendy’s rather than trying to revive Arby’s. The Wendy’s/Arby’s Group lost money in seven of the 10 quarters in which it reported results as a combined company. Wendy’s is under pressure to prove it can do better on its own. Though revenue missed expectations by analysts polled by FactSet of $617 million, it still rose 2 percent to $611 million. Shares fell 4 percent Wednesday afternoon to $5.26, though Janney Capital Markets analyst Mark Kalinowski reiterated his “buy” rating on the company and said he expects it will overtake Burger King as the No. 2 seller of fast-food burgers in the U.S. Meanwhile, the company has been growing overseas. Wendy’s has only a small presence outside the U.S.: about 300 restaurants out of a total of about 6,600 are international, but Brolick said the company has agreements for growing to 1,000 international restaurants, including additions in Japan and Russia.

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Lynn Forester de Rothschild: Restoring Capitalism — Restoring America

November 10, 2011

Although portrayed as opposites, the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street protesters are essentially kissing cousins, both with important contributions to make to America. Neither movement believes that our nation is working for them. They see a society rigged by big government, big labor and big business against the people. They have a point. Ironically, they would each be more persuasive if they acted together, instead of allowing themselves to be exploited by the squabbling and ineffective political parties. Engagement in a war of attrition dilutes the power of both groups. However, the two movements could claim victory if they force our nation to rethink and rebuild our economy and our civil society based on a shared belief in the best of our democratic values and capitalist roots. President Obama has broken trust with the American people. Not only has he left us more bitterly divided than ever imaginable, but since the beginning of his presidency, 1.3 million more Americans are unemployed, 913,000 private sector jobs have been destroyed, 13 million people have been added to food stamp dependency and over 6 million have lost their homes. While our economy needs 90,000 new jobs each month just to keep up with our national birth rate, we have reached that threshold only 9 times since February 2009. All that is bad enough, but at the same time our government has increased our debt burden from $5.8 trillion in 2008 (40.3% of GDP) to over $9 trillion in 2011 (67% of GDP). And, our annual federal government budget deficit has grown from $458 billion in 2008 to $1.4 trillion in 2011. Only 19% of Americans “always” or “mostly” trust the government to do what is right, down from 75% in 1958. Millions are fed up and are opting to “starve the beast”. That is not crazy. In light of all this, the government’s disproportionate protection of the financial sector is appalling. The implied guarantee for “too big to fail” banks, a tax regime that levies lower tax rates on financial engineers making millions at hedge funds and private equity funds than on earners in any other industry, and the failure of banks to loosen financing for small and medium sized businesses hurts the majority. Lending to small and medium businesses has fallen to $607 billion from $711 billion in 2008. This is in spite of the June 2011 report by the Federal Reserve that excess reserves at banks totals nearly $1.57 trillion — 20 times what banks need to satisfy their reserve requirements. These realities provide evidence of collusion between the political and financial elites. Frustration, even anger, with this state of our country is not insane or unreasonable. But, to blame either a duplicitous government or a greedy private sector is too simple. Instead, we need to ask all sides to put aside their divisive rhetoric and work together to restore the shared greatness of America. Although abused in recent years, capitalism has been the bedrock of our prosperity and our fairness. In order for our economy to lift all of our citizens, our economy will need to be powered by the private sector and government will have to take actions that are anathema to the vested interests of both parties. We must find common ground to reform our tax system, eliminate most tax subsidies, recalibrate our regulations, restructure our entitlement programs, re-create a smaller and wiser government and establish private-public partnerships for many essential tasks. We have had leadership in America in the past that has brought us together in this way. Bill Clinton had it right in his State of the Union Address in 1996 when he said, “the era of big government is over. But we cannot go back to the era of fending for yourself. We have to go forward to the era of working together as a community, as a team, as one America, with all of us reaching across these lines that divide us — the division, the discrimination, the rancor — we have to reach across it to find common ground. We have got to work together if we want America to work”. The Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party movements both have legitimate gripes. We need to be what we have always been; a nation that creates better opportunities for a greater number of people. It is through the hopes and dreams and hard work of the believers in the American Dream that our differences will disappear and our confidence will return. After all, deep down in our soul we know that with inspired leadership, which we sorely lack right now, success, and even outrageous fortune, should be available to anyone who works hard and plays by the rules in America. Lynn Forester de Rothschild is CEO of EL Rothschild, LLC and the co-Chair of the “Better Values, Better Markets” Task Force at the Henry Jackson Society in London.

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Occupy Wall Street Protesters Clash With Police Outside Courthouse

November 6, 2011

NEW YORK — Hundreds of Occupy Wall Street protesters clashed with police in front of the New York Supreme Court building Saturday afternoon, after they and thousands others marched across to Foley Square from Zuccotti Park. At first, police officers stationed along the route largely stood by and watched as protesters marched up Broadway, playing tambourines, drums and harmonicas and chanting slogans like “How do you fix the deficit? Stop the wars, tax the rich!” As the protest swelled near Foley Square, New York Police Department motorcycles and cars began blocking off intersections. Stranded drivers honked — angrily, as they impotently inched forward towards the protesters, or in support, cheering and sticking thumbs ups and peace signs out the windows of their vehicles. The protesters were met on the steps of the courthouse by a line of officers, and more soon arrived, armed with plastic ties and rolled up orange barricades. Before moving in, a group of officers coordinated. One, holding a rolled piece of paper, told the group, “We’re saying it’s blocking a pedestrian walkway.” “Let’s go,” another officer shouted at his colleagues waiting with zip ties and barricades. “Get up there!” “Let’s stand fast there, huh?” a female officer encouraged, as other officers began saying through megaphones: “Right now, it’s illegal to be on the sidewalk, it’s a hazard.” Protesters began questioning the NYPD’s actions, citing their right to peacefully assemble. They paced the sidewalk in an effort to defend against the argument that the crowd was an obstruction. Several got in the faces of officers forming a human barricade on the courthouse steps. “You’re supposed to be our nation’s finest,” they shouted. “You’re the ones blocking the sidewalk!” Physical altercations began, with several officers roughly shoving protesters and protesters refusing to move, shouting in the faces of officers narrowing the sidewalk space behind the orange net barriers. “We don’t want nobody to get hurt!” an officer shouted on the megaphone. Officers provided several different reasons for the courthouse crackdown. “It’s our jobs, it’s taxpayer money,” a plainclothes man standing with the officers on the steps shouted at protesters. “It’s the rules.” An Officer Vance described the space as a “frozen zone” and said the officers’ actions were “securing the area.” “You can see I’m having a bad day here,” Vance said, asking HuffPost to keep moving. “They asked me to clear it and I cleared it out,” said Officer Birmingham beside him, confirming that the NYPD had “deemed it unsafe.” According to witnesses, one woman was caught between advancing cops and protesters and dragged across the barricade. She was taken up the courthouse steps and cuffed with zip ties against a courthouse column. Desiree Frias, 18, cried as two cops brought her down the steps toward squad cars. “I just want to go back to college,” she said, gasping. She tried to spell her name between sobs, asking for someone to tell her fiance what had happened as the arresting officers urged her to calm down. Activist and former New Jersey city councilman Jim Keady, 40, tried to advise Frias of her rights before officers took her. “It’s going to be okay,” he said. “You might not make it back to class on Monday, but this is going to be one of the most important lessons you’ll ever learn, in exercising your rights.” One officer said she was to be taken to One Police Plaza and likely processed back at the courthouse. “They just handed her to me, I have no choice,” said the female officer on her right. The number of officers present swelled to about one hundred but only an estimated half-dozen protesters were arrested, according to witnesses. Officers declined to comment or stated they didn’t know the number arrested. Despite physical altercations and heated exchanges, there are no known injuries at this time. Pepper spray did not appear to be used to push back the crowd. The standoff between protesters and police lasted several hours before protesters dispersed, many headed back to Zuccotti Park. After they had cleared out, several dozen officers remained stationed on the courthouse steps. Later on Saturday night, several hundred protesters marched to One Police Plaza, where the arrested protesters were due for arraignment, in a show of solidarity. The march organizers interrupted a meeting of the General Assembly in Zuccotti Park to recruit support. Several dozen police officers responded by accompanying the protesters from Zuccotti Park on foot and by vehicle. Motorcycles formed a barrier in front of the courthouse steps. The protesters stopped in front of the courthouse on the corner of Hogan and Centre streets, where officers also blocked the steps. “They say this shit can’t happen,” said a speaker on the steps via the “people’s mic,” while officers looked on. Rumors have swirled in recent days that officers will attempt a clean-up or clear-out of the park this weekend, but those rumors are as of yet unconfirmed. An officer standing near City Hall Saturday afternoon additional authorities had been mobilized for the night to perform duties beyond a nightly counterterrorism check of the city’s most iconic sites. Nearly 30 additional cars were out beyond the usual 100. “We’re on standby in case anything goes on downtown,” the officer said, clarifying, “at Zuccotti.” UPDATE: 9:45 p.m. — Desiree Frias is being charged with assaulting an officer, a felony, and obstructing government administration and resisting arrest, both misdemeanors, according to the clerk’s office at One Police Plaza. According to witnesses, Frias was caught between officers trying to clear the area in Foley Square and protesters trying to hold their ground. It remains unclear what type of assault was allegedly committed by Frias, who was wearing a purple knitted cap and long blue skirt at the time of her arrest. Court clerk Joe Simon said he could not provide information about the other protesters who were arrested, and he said he believed Frias would not come before a judge Saturday night. He expected the protesters would be arraigned no sooner than 1:00 p.m. Sunday, which is when the courthouse is scheduled to open. It typically takes at least 24 hours to process the paperwork, Simon said, but he noted that at least 350 people were awaiting processing at the 5th precinct where Frias was being held. Frias’s fiance Hector Asavedo said he had not been able to reach her and had not been given any information, though the clerk said she would have access to a phone at the precinct and could consult legal aid once her paperwork was processed. The lawyer would then stand with her before the judge “once she’s physically brought up.” Moira Meltzer of the New York office of the National Lawyers Guild contacted this reporter in search of information about Frias’ charges. Meltzer said her office had so far had difficulty obtaining information from the authorities. The Lawyer’s Guild Is representing all the protesters arrested at the demonstration in front of the court building and associated protests Saturday. Meltzer said she has 21 names, but doesn’t know if that list includes all who were arrested.

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Foreclosure-Mocking Law Firm Issues Apologies For Costumes

November 2, 2011

BUFFALO, N.Y. — The head of a foreclosure law firm whose employees mocked victims of the mortgage crisis at a Halloween party last year apologized Wednesday to an outraged advocate for the homeless who said the firm showed “a disgusting lack of sensitivity.” Pictures from the Steven J. Baum law firm’s 2010 Halloween party turned up last week in The New York Times, which said it received them from an unidentified former employee. The pictures show people dressed to look homeless and a sign reading “Baum Estates” near part of the office decorated to resemble a row of foreclosed homes. Another picture features a tattered green tarp over what appears to be a hovel for the homeless. The Baum law firm in suburban Buffalo is one of the largest-volume mortgage foreclosure firms in New York. Last year, it handled nearly 40 percent of the 46,572 foreclosure actions brought in New York courts, the New York Law Journal reported in February. Amid an investigation by the U.S. attorney’s office in Manhattan, Baum agreed last month to pay $2 million and change its practices after admitting to errors in legal filings that it blamed on the high volume of mortgage defaults and foreclosures it handles. New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman also is investigating the firm’s practices, a person familiar with the investigation said, speaking on condition of anonymity because active investigations are not discussed publicly. After denying to the Times that employees had mocked those who had lost their homes, the firm has in recent days acknowledged the costumes were inappropriate and apologized for last year’s Halloween party. The news comes as foreclosures continue to create a drag on the American economy and protests have erupted around the nation to protest what activists say is rampant corporate greed and influence on government that maintains a crippling disparity between rich and poor. “I again want to sincerely apologize for the inappropriate costumes worn by some of our employees at our Halloween Party in 2010. It was in extremely poor taste and I take full responsibility,” Steven J. Baum said in an emailed statement to The Associated Press on Wednesday. “I know people were extremely offended and people have every right to be upset with me and my firm.” Baum later met with Dale Zuchlewski, executive director of the Homeless Alliance of Western New York, who had sent a letter demanding an apology and offering to educate employees on the plight of the homeless. “Your firm and its employees profit at the misfortunes of others and are an active participant in making people homeless in the first place,” Zuchlewski wrote. “Allowing employees to participate in a company sponsored function such as this shows a disgusting lack of sensitivity. … Mocking others is a former of bullying that simply cannot be tolerated in our society.” After the meeting, Zuchlewski said Baum reported that he didn’t know about the party at one of the firm’s offices, but that he took responsibility. “He offered no excuses, apologized several times and has offered to have himself and his employees volunteer for homeless causes on a regular basis,” Zuchlewski said.

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Dan Solin: The Citigroup Settlement: Legal Fiction Exposed

November 1, 2011

There are times when I have a very jaded view of the judicial system in this country. The O.J. Simpson and Casey Anthony verdicts showed that justice is not always done in criminal cases. Civil cases are much worse. The securities industry routinely victimizes its clients with impunity. A cozy mandatory arbitration system administered by FINRA, which is basically a shill for the securities industry, often serves the interest of its benefactors at the expense of its clients. If investors recover anything, it’s typically a fraction of what they deserve. Hopefully, mandatory arbitration for all consumers will be banned by Congress, but I am not optimistic. In last week’s blog , I wrote about the proposed settlement with Citigroup over its sale of $1 billion in toxic housing debt. Citigroup allegedly didn’t tell the investors who bought this debt that it exercised significant influence over the selection of $500 million of the assets in the portfolio and then took a short position against those assets. The investors lost everything. Citigroup pocketed $34 million for structuring and marketing the transaction and an additional $126 million by betting against the interest of its investors. The proposed settlement involved the payment by Citigroup of $285 million. As is customary in these cases, Citigroup did not admit to any wrongdoing. This legal fiction permits companies to defend against civil lawsuits arising out of this conduct, and forces plaintiffs in those cases to relitigate the issue of liability. Settlements of this sort are required to be submitted to the Federal Courts, where Judges routinely sign off on them without further inquiry. Not U.S. District Court Judge Jed Rakoff. Judge Rakoff is a Clinton appointee who joined the federal bench in 1996. He was previously a federal prosecutor and a defense attorney in white collar criminal cases. He has a long history of asking prickly questions about settlements with big Wall Street firms, and the Citigroup case was no exception. He wants an explanation of how Citigroup can be accused of serious securities fraud, but not be required to admit or deny wrongdoing. The response will be interesting. To the average citizen, engaging in the kind of conduct alleged in the Citigroup complaint looks like fraud. If they are guilty, why shouldn’t they admit their guilt? He would like to know if the public interest would be better served by a trial, which would determine conclusively whether the charges are true. He is right. Either Citigroup should admit its guilt or there should be a trial where all the evidence will be made public and a jury can determine guilt or innocence. He is concerned that the amount of the proposed $95 million penalty might not have deterrent effect. It won’t. It is a drop in the bucket for Citigroup, which reported third quarter 2011 revenues of $20.8 billion. Here’s his real zinger: Why is the penalty in this case to be paid in large part by Citigroup and its shareholders rather than by the “culpable individual offenders acting for the corporation.” There is no good reason why those who engage in this kind of conduct should not be personally responsible for the consequences of their actions. Finally, he asks how this alleged conduct can be characterized as mere negligence rather than fraud. It clearly is fraud. You don’t “negligently” fail to disclose this kind of conduct. Judge Rakoff should be commended for taking on a system that encourages fleecing of investors by their “trusted” advisors. Usually, the only penalty is a slap on the wrist, which actually encourages repeat behavior of this sort. Exposing the legal fiction of these settlements is a service to all investors. Dan Solin is the author of the New York Times best sellers The Smartest Investment Book You’ll Ever Read , The Smartest 401(k) Book You’ll Ever Read , and The Smartest Retirement Book You’ll Ever Read . His new book, The Smartest Portfolio You’ll Ever Own , was released in September, 2011.The views set forth in this blog are the opinions of the author alone and may not represent the views of any firm or entity with whom he is affiliated. The data, information, and content on this blog are for information, education, and non-commercial purposes only. Returns from index funds do not represent the performance of any investment advisory firm. The information on this blog does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice and is limited to the dissemination of opinions on investing. No reader should construe these opinions as an offer of advisory services. Readers who require investment advice should retain the services of a competent investment professional. The information on this blog is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or class of securities mentioned herein. Furthermore, the information on this blog should not be construed as an offer of advisory services. Please note that the author does not recommend specific securities nor is he responsible for comments made by persons posting on this blog.

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Marc Ostrofsky: Sell Before You Buy: 10 Steps to a Successful "Reverse E-Commerce" Business

November 1, 2011

One of the most exciting opportunities posed by the Internet today is “reverse e-commerce.” You can “sell before you buy” with virtually no limits! And it could not be simpler. Here are 10 steps to get you started with a successful reverse e-commerce business of your own. 1. Go down to your own version of ” Harwin Street .” That’s a location in Houston, Texas, where importers sell large and small quantities of products at wholesale prices. Most cities have a Harwin Street. New York has Canal Street, Los Angeles has a few streets downtown, San Francisco has a handful of them in or around Chinatown. If your city doesn’t have a concentrated location for importers, check out your local flea market or a major city that has a shipping port where items flow into the United States. 2. Take some digital photos of 20, 30 or 50 products you think might sell well online. These could be watches, statues, automotive products or articles of clothing. This is a test to see what will sell. 3. Make sure to note the costs and how much inventory the importer or wholesaler has available. 4. Write advertising copy to accompany your photos to try and sell your newly found “virtual inventory.” 5. Post them on eBay or any other online sales outlet ( Craigslist , etsy , online classifieds,etc.). 6. See which products sell and which don’t. 7. Collect the money. 8. Fulfill the sale. 9. Repeat steps 4-7 for the products that sell. 10. Go back out and find more products to test for sale. Then, repeat the same process, often with the very same copy and photo you just used. Remember, the most successful sellers sell and resell and resell again — often from the very same photo. As long as there is inventory to sell, why not keep selling if the customers keep buying? You can also take a picture of something in your home, in a friend’s home, in a wholesaler’s warehouse, in a used car lot or from anyone who wants to sell more of what he’s already selling. The ideas are endless. CLICK TIP: Suppose your friend has a car for sale. Make an agreement, preferably in writing, that if you can sell his car you keep all the money above his asking price. Then take a picture of the car and sell it (with your profit or markup included) via the Internet. Your friend is happy because he has money for his car. The customer is happy because he got the car he wanted. You’re happy because you’re pocketing your profit. You can do this with any product, any supplier or any importer who has inventory he or she wants to move.

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Dr. Sasha Galbraith: Meg Whitman Takes Charge to Help HP Find Its Way

November 1, 2011

Mother Meg, the matron saint of eBay, is now settling in as den mother of the Hewlett-Packard boy and girl scouts. HP has always been known as the “do gooders” of Silicon Valley, long before Google’s “Do no harm” slogan came into vogue. Hopefully, with the help of a relatively new board — four of which are women — she can bring the longstanding “HP Way” back to its roots as the guiding principal of the company. She’s got a tough road ahead. After three CEOs in six years, HP needs adult leadership and a sustainable strategy — neither of which were in abundant supply during the past decade. On the other hand, coming in as the fourth CEO after a string of less-than-stellar prior chiefs might give her the room to roam. While many might deride some of the decisions she made at the helm of eBay during her later years there, few can argue that Whitman created real value at the web auction company. When she joined privately held eBay in 1997, the company posted $4 million in revenue. At her departure in 2008, the now public company had grown 200-fold, to $8 billion in sales. In many ways, Whitman’s skills and experience could be a great match for HP. She was brought in to eBay for her notable marketing expertise — something that HP as an engineering-dominated company has always lacked. The old joke was that if HP had to sell sushi, the sales force would advertise it as, “Wanna buy some cold, dead fish?” Moreover, Whitman has always believed in metrics, another HP passion, leading to a popular saying at eBay, “If it moves, measure it.” By most accounts, Whitman is a decisive, if low-key, leader who has a talent for listening to her troops and actually getting things done. Critics cite Whitman’s power-hungry bent and consequent “angling” for the CEO role at HP. And in California, her failed bid for governor did more to win her enemies than friends. It showed a rough and ruthless side that most observers hadn’t seen. Frankly, I think that most CEOs have at least some degree of psychopathic DNA and a strong need for control. After all, how many truly humble CEOs do you know? If more women, like Whitman, actually reach out and grab such a high profile job like CEO of HP then perhaps we are actually moving toward equality in the corporate (boy scout) world. This post first appeared on Forbes.com

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Dag Detter: Women — a Competitive Advantage

October 31, 2011

In war as in sports, ‘organization’ is often the decisive factor that wins the day. Especially when competitors have similar resources and equally well-trained team members, then how we organize ourselves and deploy our resources determines success. The current economic crisis is not just financial; it is just as much a cultural crisis. The social contract has been broken in many countries. A small homogenous elite has lost touch with its role to lead and generate sustainable growth for all. It is time to recharge our culture and with a more dynamic leadership model. One creative way would be to promote women in the business world in a more comprehensive and professional way. For example, women played a decisive role in creating a new corporate culture for the largest corporate owner in Sweden, a portfolio controlling more than 25 per cent of the corporate sector — the Swedish state portfolio. On the back of consecutive deregulations and a rising globalization, the financial crisis in the 1990′s exposed the flaws of state capitalism in Sweden. The portfolio had been a protected part of society and managed by a small elite of people that had lost sight of a common purpose. The financial statements laid bare the fact the model was in desperate need of radical change. Apart from increased transparency and improved capital structure, the tools used to achieve this transformation were, evaluating and recruiting the relevant professionals able to execute the fundamental restructuring of each company. More than 85 per cent of the Non-Executive Board members and 75 per cent of the CEOs in the portfolio were replaced over a three-year period, in total several hundred people. One important factor that made this this vast cultural transformation of the leadership, from self-serving elite to dynamic group focused on serving the company, possible was that almost 30 per cent of these new leaders were women. The objective was clearly to regain the trust in the management of this vast portfolio by improving the performance of the portfolio empowering the only institution that, by law, is responsible and accountable for the development of the corporation — the Board. A board is not a democratic institution that requires equal representation. Every person that is nominated to a board must not only be able to add value to the leadership of the company, but also enhance the dynamics of the board as a team. The Board is a team of people working together, not unlike a football team or a symphony orchestra. Although the captain of the team, the conductor of the orchestra and the chairman of the corporation are incredibly important, it is their ability to inspire a concerted effort that creates the best results. In the corporate world the aim is to create value. Creating value is based on three fundamental strategies; operational, capital structure and business development. With each member being able to contribute along at least one of these strategies and the capacity to share and debate issues from a wealth of knowledge and experience, the board is a competitive advantage when developing an ailing corporation. Resilient group dynamics relies on both intellectual and psychological integrity prevailing in order for a board to be effective and not reduced to a rubber stamp. Trust in the nomination process being based on merit is essential, in order to ensure potential board members feel comfortable relying on each other as they are collectively accountable for the company. Given the relevant professional background, the personal background, outlook and social network are decisive for the relations that determine performance as a group. Women are not a minority and do not deserve to be included for some misplaced democratic reasons, or based on a quota. Naturally, in some countries it may take time to grow a substantial base of female professionals that can gain the relevant experience. Acquiring such experience may warrant not only a wide range of social changes in order to combine work with family in a reasonable way, but most of all a change in attitude. Sweden was fortunate to have an education system, culture and business sector that has fostered generations of women in business. The result in Sweden was overwhelming. The portfolio outperformed the stock market for more than one and a half year. Not a small part was attributable to women, as their professional contribution did not only matter as individuals, but more importantly changed the culture of each team as a whole and thereby the entire portfolio. The aim in the corporate world is clear — to improve the long-term value of the corporation. Including more women in the leadership of business is a creative and strategic step towards sustainable growth.

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Appeals Court Overturns Key Cape Wind Clearance

October 29, 2011

BOSTON — A federal appeals court on Friday overturned the Federal Aviation Administration’s ruling that the array of turbines proposed for the Cape Wind project don’t pose a danger for local air traffic, possibly further delaying the wind farm proposed a decade ago. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia said the FAA misread its own rules when assessing Cape Wind, which aims to be the nation’s first offshore wind farm. The court said the FAA did not adequately determine whether Cape Wind’s 130 turbines – each 440-feet tall – would pose a danger to pilots relying on sight rather than the plane’s instruments. The court vacated the government’s “no hazard” finding and sent the case back to the FAA, agreeing with plaintiffs that “the FAA did misread its regulations.” The project has faced relentless opposition since it was first proposed in 2001 for Nantucket Sound, off Massachusetts. Critics say its power would be too costly and the wind farm will spoil beautiful vistas, while posing environmental and navigational threats. The court ruling came in an appeal of the FAA finding by the town of Barnstable and the Alliance to Protect Nantucket Sound. The decision could mean further delays for the $2.6 billion project. FAA spokesman Jim Peters said the agency was reviewing the court decision. He said the FAA does not know yet whether it will have to start over its review of Cape Wind. Audra Parker of the Alliance to Protect Nantucket Sound suggested the decision could sink the project. She said a significant delay could make it impossible for Cape Wind to attract needed investors, “a key step toward Cape Wind’s ultimate failure.” A lawyer for Barnstable, Eric Pilsk, said the FAA took 2 1/2 years to return a new finding in a similar case in Nevada that his firm handled. But Cape Wind spokesman Mark Rodgers said the ruling won’t affect the project schedule, which calls for producing power by 2014. He said the project needed a renewed hazard determination from FAA within coming months anyway. The suit is just another delay tactic by project critics, he added. “The FAA has reviewed Cape Wind for eight years and repeatedly determined that Cape Wind did not pose a hazard to air navigation,” he said. “The essence of today’s court ruling is that the FAA needs to better explain its Determination of No Hazard ruling.” Bill Short, a consultant working the renewable energy industry, said the ruling was a blow to Cape Wind, but the project can likely withstand any delay because it already has a buyer for half its power under very favorable terms. “(It’s like) driving down the road and you’ve hit one hellacious, enormous pothole and it has given you a flat tire. That’s what this is like (for Cape Wind),” he said. “As opposed to you’re driving down the road and your car goes into a sinkhole and you don’t come out.” Cape Wind backers say the costs for the project are worth the numerous benefits, including kicking off a new clean energy industry, while lowering carbon emissions and reducing dependence on foreign oil. Last year, Cape Wind sold half its projected power output to the utility National Grid, after the project became the first U.S. offshore wind farm to win a lease from the U.S. Department of the Interior. But it has struggled to find a buyer for the other half of its electricity. Without one, it likely can’t attract financing to fully build out the project. It could move ahead with a smaller project, but that would raise the price of its power and make it less economical to build. In its ruling Friday, the court said the FAA made its initial finding of “no hazard” after inadequate analysis, basing it solely on the fact Cape Wind’s turbines aren’t 500 feet tall – the threshold for when turbines become a concern to pilots flying primarily by sight, not instruments, under “visual flight rules.” The court said the FAA’s handbook indicates the turbine height is just one possible factor the FAA must consider, including how Cape Wind would affect pilots flying by visual flight rules. It said there were hundreds of such flights in the area over a three-month span and cited testimony from some local pilots worried about colliding with the turbines in the frequently foggy and rough weather over Nantucket Sound. “The FAA might ultimately find the risk of these dangers to be modest,” the ruling read, “but we cannot meaningfully review any such prediction because the FAA cut the process short in reliance on a misreading of its handbook and, thus, as far as we can tell, never calculated the risks in the first place.”

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Businessman Robert Pritzker Dead At 85

October 28, 2011

CHICAGO — Businessman Robert Pritzker, who led a global industrial conglomerate and whose family founded the Hyatt chain of hotels, has died. He was 85. Pritzker died Thursday evening in a Chicago nursing facility after suffering from Parkinson’s disease, his executive assistant Becky Spooner said Friday. Pritzker founded and was chairman and president of the Marmon Group, an international conglomerate of manufacturing and service companies. His business acumen helped Marmon Group revenues grow into the billions of dollars and through hundreds of acquisitions over 50 years, company officials said. The company was sold to Berkshire Hathaway in 2008. In 2002, at age 76, Pritzker acquired several caster, medical device and hardware companies to form Colson Associates. Pritzker was the brother of Jay Pritzker, who was founder and chairman of the Hyatt Hotel chain and among the richest people in the United States when he died in 1999 in Chicago. Pritzker was born in Chicago on June 30, 1926. He graduated from the Illinois Institute of Technology with an industrial engineering degree in 1946 and later became chairman of the school’s board of trustees. The school now has a Pritzker Institute for Medical Engineering. Throughout his career Pritzker taught management and engineering courses at IIT, the University of Chicago and Oxford University. He also was chairman of the National Association of Manufacturers and worked with the National Academy of Engineering. Pritzker is survived by his wife, Mayari, five children, 10 grandchildren and two great-grandchildren.

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Marian Wright Edelman: Just Say No to Corporate Greed

October 28, 2011

Repatriation . It’s a word many schoolchildren probably haven’t yet learned to define or even seen very often outside of spelling bees. But when it comes to corporate taxes, repatriation is the cornerstone of an idea that has the potential to severely hurt millions of children and parents and widen the already historic and unconscionable gap between the rich and the poor. In its simplest definition, repatriation is bringing something back to its country of origin—returning it back home. One of the solutions to the jobs crisis being proposed by some of our Congressional leaders and lobbied for aggressively by some of the country’s richest corporations is a rehash of an old experiment: enacting a repatriation tax holiday that would temporarily allow U.S.-based multinational companies to bring home profits they currently hold overseas at a 5.25 percent tax rate, instead of the usual 35 percent corporate tax rate. Under current tax law, multinational companies generally pay no U.S. corporate taxes on foreign income until those profits are brought back to the U.S. As the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) explains, “This effectively allows such firms to defer payment of the U.S. corporate income tax on their overseas profits indefinitely , even though they may obtain an immediate tax deduction for many expenses incurred in supporting the same overseas investments. This can produce a negative U.S. corporate income tax—that is, a net government subsidy—for overseas operations. In addition to causing the federal government to lose tax revenue, this structure gives multinationals a significant incentive to shift economic activity—as well as their reported profits—overseas.” The argument for the repatriation holiday is that giving corporations a huge incentive to bring profits back right now—in the form of an enormous tax break—would bring billions of dollars back to the U.S. economy that would be reinvested and provide a big stimulus to our economy. Corporate proponents and their Congressional bullies argue this will create desperately needed jobs. But the last time this was tried, under a 2004 Bush Administration plan, it didn’t work out that way. Instead, as CBPP points out, “The evidence shows that firms mostly used the repatriated earnings not to invest in U.S. jobs or growth but for purposes that Congress sought to prohibit, such as repurchasing their own stock and paying bigger dividends to their shareholders. Moreover, many firms actually laid off large numbers of U.S. workers even as they reaped multi-billion-dollar benefits from the tax holiday and passed them on to shareholders.” Many economists and scholars believe that if corporations get their way and get another repatriation holiday, history will repeat itself—and once again the corporations and their shareholders, not American workers, families, and children, will be the only winners. The nonpartisan congressional Joint Committee on Taxation has estimated the holiday would cost the federal government about $80 billion over ten years in lost revenue. The Economic Policy Institute’s Andrew Fieldhouse puts it this way: “While there are numerous job creation proposals that would meaningfully lower unemployment, some lawmakers are pushing counterproductive policies disguised as job creation packages. The proposed repeat of the corporate tax repatriation holiday is one such wolf in sheep’s clothing.” When the nation is already facing a jobs crisis and many Congressional leaders are threatening to slash nutrition, child care, and other safety net programs children and families rely on as a means of balancing the budget, revisiting a failed idea instead of coming up with real solutions and real jobs is a threat children and families and our country cannot afford. As the Occupy Wall Street protestors are shouting, let’s “just say no to corporate greed” and to Congresspeople who continue to raid from the poor and children to curry favor and campaign contributions from the rich.

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U.S. Ducks Recession For Now

October 15, 2011

WASHINGTON (Lucia Mutikani) – Consumers and businesses pulled the sickly U.S. economy back from the brink of recession in the third quarter but don’t pop the champagne just yet. After wobbling early in the quarter, the economy regained some footing, with retail sales rising solidly in September and labor market conditions improving. Business spending has held up despite volatility in financial markets and factory activity has kept expanding. Economists now estimate U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annual pace of between 2.3 and 2.7 percent in the July-September period, a sharp step up from the 1.3 percent logged in the first quarter and a far cry from what some feared just a few weeks ago. “The economy held up surprisingly well in the third quarter but it’s too early to celebrate,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. Much of the re-acceleration in growth reflects the fading of disruption to motor vehicle production and sales after the big March earthquake in Japan. A surge in auto sales contributed to a solid 1.1 percent rise in retail sales in September. Declining gasoline prices, which stretched household budgets in the second quarter and crimped consumer spending, are also seen supporting third-quarter economic growth. But those factors should prove temporary, and with Europe’s economy likely to slow as it battles its debt crisis and the U.S. labor market still weak, economists believe the fourth quarter will prove weaker, with some fearing a contraction in the first half of 2012. “The euro zone debt crisis is still playing out. That remains a dark cloud on the horizon that can present a direct hit to the U.S. economic recovery,” said Anthony Karydakis chief economist at Commerzbank in New York. Although European leaders sound determined to come to grips with the debt crisis and could announce a bold plan in the next couple of weeks, analysts worry they might once again move too slowly for jittery financial markets. A DAY LATE “A bold plan would require some form of centralized fiscal policy, which means years of voting and changing the treaty and voting in individual parliaments,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial in Chicago. “It’s not clear whether financial markets will have the patience for them to execute on it because you don’t have the ability in Europe to move as quickly on it and they have always been a day late in dealing with the crisis.” U.S. exports to the euro zone account for only about 2 percent of U.S. gross domestic product, but a worsening of the debt crisis could lead to a financial panic, with ripple effects on American banks and consumers. The euro zone turmoil has already led to tightening in credit availability, weighing on spending and employment. Economists at Goldman Sachs see U.S. growth slowing to a pace between 0.50 percent and 1 percent in the next two quarters, with the risk of a recession at about 40 percent. Others, however, think another recession is far fetched. “The economy is not in great shape but it is hardly falling apart,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania. “We are in a slow, steady, grinding recovery that is not creating lots of jobs.” Naroff, like many other economists, draws solace from the solid rise in retail sales in September reported on Friday and the need for auto manufacturers to replenish inventories after production was disrupted early this year. “Some of the momentum in final demand growth could carry into the fourth quarter. Early indications suggest that auto sales, which were an important element in third-quarter growth, are holding up well in October,” said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan in New York. “And while energy prices have backed up in recent days it should still be the case that moderation in headline inflation could give some lift to consumer spending power.” Much as Europe’s shadow looms large over the U.S. economy, belt tightening at home also poses a risk to growth, with a payroll tax cut and an extension of emergency unemployment benefits scheduled to expire in December. While economists expect the payroll tax cut to be extended, many doubt whether the emergency jobless benefits will be renewed, which would undercut already weak household income. “If political parties are unable to agree on any of these measures, that could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back,” said Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research in New York. “The spending cuts would impact growth not only directly via lower disposable incomes, but also indirectly via a massive loss of confidence in the ability of policymakers to steer events in the right direction in these critical times.” (Editing by James Dalgleish) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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China inflation ticks lower, policy on pause

October 14, 2011

By Aileen Wang and Koh Gui Qing BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s consumer inflation dipped to 6.1 percent in September, retreating further from three-year highs, although stubborn food price pressures will deter the central bank from loosening its policy reins anytime soon. A downtrend in inflation would be welcomed by policymakers as confirmation that a flurry of increases in interest rates and bank reserve requirements is working, just when China’s economy is showing increasing strains from the global downturn. Since inflation is still close to the three-year peak of 6.5 percent hit in July, few analysts believe China will follow the likes of Brazil, Indonesia and Singapore and ease policy in the near-term, barring a marked deterioration in Europe’s debt woes. “The slowdown in the CPI last month is not drastic enough to reduce inflationary expectations, and it is still too early to confirm an easing trend in price pressures,” said Qiao Yongyuan, an analyst with CEBM in Shanghai. “The central bank is more likely to keep its current monetary stance unchanged and will wait for data in coming months to judge the direction of policy,” Qiao said. The slowdown in inflation in September was right in line with a poll of economists’ forecasts and lower than August’s reading of 6.3 percent. Food price pressures remained strong, rising 13.4 percent from a year earlier, unchanged from the pace in August’s data. Non-food inflation eased to 2.9 percent from 3.0 percent in August, the data showed. China’s producer price index in September came in below market expectations with a 6.5 percent rise from a year ago, compared with August’s 7.3 percent. “The data will come as a relief to the Chinese government, which now faces a deadlock in policymaking. It will fine-tune policies in December,” said Shen Jianguang, an economist with Mizuho Securities Asia in Hong Kong. China’s ruling Communist Party usually holds an annual agenda-setting economic policy conference in December. “Right now, they are not sure that inflation is slowing just (based on) one month’s number. The policy will be on hold for one or two more months,” said Shen. Such doubts were underscored by the monthly price changes. The consumer price index rose 0.5 percent in September from the previous month, faster than August’s 0.3 percent rise. Food prices rose 1.1 percent in the month, while non-food prices were up 0.2 percent. The government pays particular attention to prices for pork, the staple meat for many ordinary citizens griping about inflation. Pork prices rose 43.5 percent in September from a year ago, barely down from a 45.5 percent rise in August. Residential costs, which measure rents, mortgages and power bills, cooled to 5.1 percent, the slowest rise since October 2010. POLICY ON HOLD After lifting interest rates five times and banks’ reserve requirements nine times since October 2010, Beijing has put policy tightening on hold as a slowdown in Europe and the United States threaten global growth. Friday, Singapore eased its monetary policy, saying the “outlook for the global economy has deteriorated sharply.” That followed rate cuts in Brazil and Indonesia in recent weeks. China’s economic growth has been slowing down this year alongside growing concerns that the developed world may be heading into a recession. Data Thursday showed China’s import and export growth eased in September, with export growth hitting seven-month lows, as domestic and overseas demand cooled. The annual pace of exports to the troubled European Union in September more than halved from August. Some analysts say China may relax monetary policy if push comes to shove, although milder moves such as relaxing credit restrictions and lowering banks’ reserve requirements are likely to come before a more drastic rate cut. “The central bank may even see fit to ease policy before the end of the year, perhaps starting with cuts to very high reserve requirements, though it will be keen to keep a grip on lending growth,” said George Worthington, the chief Asia Pacific economist for IFR Markets. “Rate cuts are unlikely to be on the agenda barring a renewed global slump given the relatively modest tightening on that front since the last crisis in 2008/09.” (Reporting by Aileen Wang and Koh Gui Qing; Writing by Chris Buckley; Editing by Ken Wills)

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Insight: Wisconsin clash spotlights U.S. labor-management rift

October 14, 2011

By John D. Stoll OSHKOSH, Wisconsin (Reuters) — Oshkosh Corp has been a rare lifeline for the beleaguered United Auto Workers, one of the few American manufacturers to have added significantly to its ranks of well-paid union workers in a brutal decade for factory hands. But now, as the UAW renews conciliatory contracts with major automakers that have dismissed tens of thousands of hourly workers, union employees are turning against Oshkosh. Tim Jacobson, 32, is among the workers who have rejected a new contract forged by union leaders with the maker of military vehicles and fire trucks. They are marching in the streets of this university city on Lake Winnebago to denounce an employer that has nearly doubled its UAW staff to 3,100 over the five-year span of its last union contract. Jacobson himself was hired by Oshkosh two years ago, less than a month after he was laid off from a nearby Harley Davidson plant. “What’s disgusting?” Jacobson shouts, carrying an American flag as he leads a line of 150 workers at a recent rally downtown. “Union busting,” the crowd responds. This seemingly paradoxical labor standoff stems from grievances almost unique to Oshkosh, whose profits have been flush in recent years, and from a broader animus between labor and management, both nationally and in particular in Wisconsin, where a clash over the power of public-sector unions transfixed the country over the summer. “Frankly, a lot of people here are pissed off,” Jacobson said. Workers complain that the new contract erodes work rules, security and seniority rights – such as a demand that workers can be required to work up to ten Saturdays per year. Particularly galling to them is the company’s call for more temporary, non-union positions. When Oshkosh sought union approval to hire as many as 300 temporary workers starting in 2013 as part of its original contract offer, the workforce rejected it. The most recent rejection, on Saturday, was the second in a week. The company had offered as much as an 8.5 percent raise and $2,000 signing bonus to offset to rising healthcare premiums. Oshkosh had attempted to craft a similar deal in 2010, a year before the contract’s expiration, and met resistance then as well. An outright strike is unlikely. UAW and Oshkosh officials returned to the bargaining table on Wednesday. A third deal, without any demands for temporary worker provisions, will likely be handed to workers this weekend, according to people familiar with the talks. These people expressed confidence that the third attempt for ratification will work. But with protestors on the streets of Oshkosh, Wisconsin where even the deep erosion of the industrial heartland has been kept at bay, the thread of distrust sewn into labor-management relations is proving difficult to sever. Oshkosh’s desire to bring in temps follows a pattern set by most of the nation’s industrial heavyweights, such as Caterpillar Inc, who want to meet shorter-term production needs without having to bring on another crop of permanent employees. Workers here firmly believe this will lead to an inevitable loss of union jobs. “Our members have been getting very angry out there,” UAW Local 578 President Nick Nitscke recently said while standing in the lobby of the Oshkosh hotel, the site of the labor negotiations. He pointed to a street corner where hundreds of workers have protested several times in recent weeks. “They do not want anything to do with temp workers.” PICKET FEVER This schism between the workers and their union has many outside observers scratching their heads, coming as it does with the rest of the country plagued by economic malaise. Oshkosh has been on a roll thanks to winning big contracts to build military vehicles in recent years, though it now faces new headwinds as government-spending cuts and increased competition squeeze the defense industry. Management has been hitting this theme hard. In a letter accompanying its first offer to UAW workers last month, Chief Executive Charles Szews said, “the company’s offer takes into consideration today’s economic realities for our principal customer, the U.S. Department of Defense, which is facing hundreds of billions of dollars in budget reductions.” Workers are largely dismissive of that outlook. Like many others in the area, Rep. Gordon Hintz, a Democrat representing Oshkosh, sees the current conflict as at least partially influenced by the protests over public-sector unions that polarized public opinion, just 87 miles to the south in Madison. The Occupy Wall Street movement is also energizing workers, he said. “Does Wisconsin have picket fever? Yes, I think there is a little of that.” A broader anxiety is also underpinning the workers’ resistance, says Mike Schroeder, a longtime Oshkosh worker recently elected as a chief bargaining steward. “People have not gotten the entire story of what is really going on here. This isn’t really about money,” he said. “This is about job security.” A significant portion of Oshkosh’s workers here were hired as the company was scrambling to fill orders from the Department of Defense, while other Wisconsin manufacturers — including Kohler Co., Harley Davidson, and Mercury Marine – were laying people off and, in some cases, hiring more temps. As a result, Oshkosh was able to hire skilled manufacturing workers who harbored a deep resentment toward non-unionized employees doing short-term work. Jacobson, who worked in a Harley Davidson factory for seven years, is one such employee. “I was laid off from Harley on September 25, 2009,” he said. Two weeks later, after applying for a job online, he went to work in an Oshkosh factory. “I don’t want to go through that again.” Harley didn’t actually negotiate a temporary worker deal with its union until after Jacobson left, a spokeswoman said. The company has yet to hire temps due to a lack of market demand, she said. ENGINE TROUBLE? Oshkosh Corp. is a key cog of the local economy. “Had it not been for Oshkosh Corporation and the success they had in the defense sector, this region could have been in serious trouble,” said John Casper, president of the local Chamber of Commerce. State and city officials recently authorized hundreds of millions of dollars in economic incentives to encourage Oshkosh to keep key defense work in the region. Even facing headwinds, the company’s impact on job creation in the community is wide-ranging. This spring, more than 3,000 people packed into the local convention center, where Oshkosh was holding a two-day job fair to fill up to 750 jobs, all of which went to the UAW. Since Oshkosh signed its last contract in 2006 with the UAW, revenue has more than tripled, hitting $9.8 billion in 2010, with operating profit nearly quadrupling to $1.4 billion, although Wall Street estimates suggest those numbers are falling in 2011 due to softness in defense spending. A contract to build billions of dollars worth of M-ATV and F-MTV military vehicles fueled the boom, allowing Oshkosh to wipe away much of the debt it took on when it purchased aerial-lift maker JLG Industries Inc. in 2006. That acquisition was intended to help Oshkosh diversify away from its core military business. Oshkosh also makes heavy vehicles for municipal use, such as fire and garbage trucks. But with more than $1 billion in long-term debt, the heavy reliance on defense contracts for operating profit has turned one of the company’s best sources of optimism into become something of an Achilles heel. Its signature M-ATV is now nearing the end of a hugely profitable production run, and its new bread-and-butter military vehicle, the F-MTV, has failed to turn a profit. In its earnings call in July, Oshkosh said the vehicle will be profitable in the fiscal second quarter of 2012, later than initially expected. “There’s been a great recognition that defense contracts are running off,” JP Morgan equities analyst Ann Duignan said in a telephone interview. She said the defense industry is stuck in a “brutal cycle” and “you could almost say absent another new war we could be in a secular (defense) decline” that could accelerate Oshkosh’s issues. Shares of Oshkosh have suffered under the weight of these concerns, sinking nearly 50 percent this year. Some on Wall Street have speculated that the company’s market value – falling from a 52-week high of $3.6 billion to about $1.7 billion currently – makes it an attractive takeover target. Billionaire investor Carl Icahn reported owning a 9.51 percent stake in the company over the summer, saying in a federal filing that he would meet with management to enhance shareholder value. Icahn did not return calls and emails requesting comment. A LONG WAY FROM DETROIT Dissent isn’t a new phenomenon for the UAW. In Detroit – home of the union’s core constituency – workers have shown a willingness to vote down automaker contracts in even the worst of times. And now, as Ford Motor Co seeks ratification for a new deal that includes lucrative bonuses, there is widespread concern that workers there will vote no. As of Thursday, two Ford factories had rejected a proposed four-year deal, throwing its ratification into doubt. But in many ways, Oshkosh feels light years away from the troubles of Detroit. Unlike other Rust Belt communities in the Midwest, the City of Oshkosh has been a pocket of relative stability. The Fox Valley has benefited from diversification efforts that the business community employed after the collapse of the region’s paper industry decades ago. Employers Kimberly Clarke Corp. and Gulfstream are two big ones that continue to invest. For the City of Oshkosh, the presence of a state prison and the University of Wisconsin Oshkosh provide an added layer steady employment. Local officials say unemployment is trending lower than the state average. But recent developments in Wisconsin’s public sector have shaken confidence. “There’s a lot of uncertainty, and I would even say fear around here,” said Tom Willadsen, pastor of First Presbyterian Church in Oshkosh. “We have university professors who effectively had an eight percent pay cut because of a health care increase.. These people were hit very hard, and hit very suddenly, and clearly there is a sense that unions are under attack.” That uncertainty has spilled directly into the private sector, leading to talk among Oshkosh workers about perceived threats to job security. “A lot of people even spend a lot of time on Facebook dealing with this,” said Shawn Cronin, a 27-year-old father of two who joined Oshkosh while in the National Guard. Cronin, who said he suffers from post-traumatic stress disorder after serving overseas, complained that Oshkosh managers change shift start times in defiance of union objections. Union members said they have more than 2,000 grievances outstanding against the company, Cronin said, including alleged abuses of the Family Medical Leave Act. Company spokesman John Daggett said the number of grievances is part of normal process and “not reflective of our good relationship with the union and its members.” The company has recently hired additional human resources staff to help resolve outstanding problems, he said. “But really, my issues are one small pinhole in a much bigger wall,” Cronin said. “The bottom line in all these conversations is that many of us just don’t trust management.” (Reporting By John D. Stoll; Editing by Mike Williams and Chris Kaufman)

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Separation Forced Hedge Fund Couple To Split Businesses

October 13, 2011

David Murrin and Susan Payne, the UK-based husband and wife hedge fund team accused by one U.S. thinktank of fuelling and exploiting a global commodity crisis, are to split the two businesses they founded together after agreeing to separate. Murrin, a former oil company geologist well known in the hedge fund industry for his outspoken geopolitical views, has taken sole ownership and become CEO of London-based Emergent Asset Management, a spokesman said on Wednesday.

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Jeff Danziger: Merkelslovakia

October 13, 2011
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US- Paulson loses more in September, fund now off 47%

October 9, 2011

(MENAFN – Saudi Press Agency) Hedge fund manager John Paulson lost more money in September thanks to ill-timed bets on an elusive economic recovery that left one of his biggest funds off 47 …

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Van Jones: Progressives Launching ‘October Offensive’ To Rival Tea Party

October 1, 2011

Former White House adviser Van Jones says that progressives are going to launch an “October offensive” to rival the Tea Party, in the spirit of the Arab Spring protests across the Middle East. “Everybody should hold onto their seats. October is going to be the turning point when it comes to the progressive fight back. You can see it coming,” Jones said this week on MSNBC’s “The Last Word” with Lawrence O’Donnell. “When Warren Buffett comes out and says, look, we’ve got to do something to raise taxes and to do better by America, and you’ve got these young kids who are going out there on Wall Street,” Jones said, referring to the members of Occupy Wall Street , who have been camped out in Zuccotti Park in Manhattan’s financial district for the past several weeks, “There’s a generation of Americans who are looking around and saying ‘What is the American Dream going to look like for me?’ They’re going to be standing up.” “You are going to see an American Fall, an American Autumn, just like we saw the Arab Spring,” Jones continued. “You can see it right now with these young people on Wall Street. Hold onto your hats, we’re going to have an October offensive to take back the American dream and to rescue America’s middle class.” WATCH: Jones, who served as President Barack Obama’s green jobs czar until resigning in September 2009, launched the progressive group Rebuild the Dream in June to focus on job creation and countering the influence of the Tea Party in American politics. “We are going to build a progressive balance of power to the Tea Party,” Jones told O’Donnell Thursday night. Rebuild the Dream is hosting a conference in Washington, D.C. next week. Jones also praised the Occupy Wall Street protesters in a blog post on The Huffington Post this week. Wall Street has long been the home of the biggest threat to American Democracy. Now it has become home to what may be our best hope for rescuing it,” Jones writes. “A new generation has gone to the scene of the crimes committed against our future. The time has come for all people of good will to give our full-throated backing to the young people of the Occupy Wall Street movement.”

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Obama’s Deficit Plan ‘Worse Than Nothing’ Says Former U.S. Comptroller

September 20, 2011

WASHINGTON — One of the experts who attended President Obama’s Rose Garden deficit speech is hammering the White House Tuesday, saying the president is using a bogus standard to show savings when really his plan leaves the deficit in worse shape. The White House strongly denies the contention. David Walker, former U.S. Comtroller General, is a noted budget hawk who ran the Concord Coalition, funded by Pete Peterson , a hedge fund billionaire who has invested heavily in campaigns to slash the budget, then founded the Comeback America Initiative . He initially released a positive statement, praising Obama for focusing on some pressing deficit drivers. But that was before he had a chance to read the fine print, and see where the numbers were coming from, he said. “I was shocked and saddened to find out that they have created their own baseline for determining savings,” Walker told The Huffington Post. “If you enacted all of their proposals, you would be significantly worse off in 2021 than if the Congress and the president just went on a 10-year vacation.” Walker said the problem is that rather than use the baseline for future spending determined by the Congressional Budget Office, the Obama administration used its own figures. Where the CBO bases its figures on current law — which says the Bush tax cuts expire next year and Medicare will soon cut payments to doctors — the White House estimates at least some of the tax cuts will be kept, and Congress will fix the doctor payments. A White House spokeswoman countered that the White House’s benchmark is in fact more realistic, because Congress indeed is unlikely to let the Bush-era tax cuts expire or let Medicare payments to doctors be slashed. “The adjusted baseline we’ve used is the most accurate reflection of current policy and the most illuminating way to demonstrate to the American people what actual savings will be created by these proposals,” said White House spokeswoman Meg Reilly. “It’s consistent with not only standard administration budget practice, but also with the Fiscal Commission, Gang of Six and others. And we’ve been transparent in all budget documents about precisely how the adjusted baseline is calculated.” But Walker says the different numbers only serve to confuse people, and since the Obama administration’s baseline estimate is about $6 trillion worse over 10 years than the CBO’s, it is easier to show savings. When Obama says he cuts $3 trillion to $4 trillion, it’s at least $2 trillion short of what would happen if nothing is done, according to Walker. “[The White House's] debt-to-GDP [ratio] is 74 percent in 2021, versus the current law CBO baseline of 61 percent,” Walker said. “The way they’re keeping score is worse than doing nothing.” He contended that ignoring the current law is politically palatable, but makes it harder to deal with the structural problems the actual laws present. An administration economics official echoing Reilly pointed to a recent article by White House National Economic Council director Gene Sperling, which argued that other baselines are more accurate and that the deficit-slashing super committee can use different baselines as well. Walker agrees that the committee can do that, but he thinks it’s just as bad and confusing. “What I’m concerned about is the Joint Committee on Deficit Reduction has the ability to decide what they’re going to use as the basis for determining savings,” Walker said. “They can end up creating some kind of thing like this, too, to make it look like they are doing more than they are.” “Both the president as well as this joint committee needs to use the latest CBO current law baseline, because if they don’t, they’re not credible and they’re not consistent,” he added. The administration official countered that the White House at least has been consistent in its assumptions, and details where they differ from CBO. “No one expects current law to happen,” the economics official said. “We have done this in every one of our budgets.” Walker also noted that while the White House assumes the changes in law when it comes to tax cuts and paying doctors, it does not assume the expected draw-down from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Instead, it counts the withdrawals as new policies that save money. “It’s time to quit playing games with the numbers,” Walker said, referring to Congress and the White House. “They need to be honest with the American people.” Reilly said the White House is doing so, and that the war savings are properly counted as new. “While the overseas contingency funding savings included in the proposal are consistent with the president’s policies for troop levels in Iraq and Afghanistan, constraining discretionary spending with the cap we’ve proposed is new,” Reilly said. “And counting this savings is consistent with House budget proposal and others.”

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SEC probes trading before U.S. rating cut: report

September 20, 2011

(Reuters) – Securities regulators have sent subpoenas to hedge funds and other trading firms as it probes possible insider trading before the U.S. government’s long-term credit rating was cut last month, the Wall Street Journal said, citing people familiar with the matter. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officials demanded more information about specific trades made shortly before Standard & Poor’s downgraded the country’s rating to AA-plus from AAA on August 5, the paper said. SEC officials are zeroing in on firms that bet the stock market would tumble, the Journal said. It is unclear which investment firms are being investigated, but the subpoenas are unusually broad, seeking information about why certain trades were made, a person told the Journal. An SEC spokesman declined to comment to the Journal. SEC could not immediately be reached for comment by Reuters outside regular U.S. business hours. (Reporting by Sakthi Prasad in Bangalore; Editing by Kavita Chandran)

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Robert Reich: A Good Fight

September 19, 2011

So the really big fight — perhaps the defining battle of 2012 — won’t be over Medicare. It won’t even be over Obama’s jobs program. It will be over whether the rich should pay more taxes. The president has vowed to veto any plan to tame the debt that doesn’t increase taxes on the rich. The Republicans have vowed to oppose any tax increases on the rich. It’s a good fight to have. In a Rose Garden ceremony this morning, Obama proposed new taxes on the wealthy — including a special new tax for millionaires, the closing of loopholes and deductions for people making more than $250,000 a year, and an end to the portion of the Bush tax cut going to higher incomes. Republicans accuse the president of instigating “class warfare.” But it’s not warfare to demand the rich pay their fair share of taxes to bring down America’s long-term debt. After all, the richest 1 percent of Americans now takes home more than 20 percent of total income. That’s the highest share going to the top 1 percent in almost 90 years. And they now pay at the lowest tax rates in half a century — half the rate they paid on ordinary income prior to 1981. (Unfortunately, the President isn’t proposing to raise the capital-gains tax — which, now at 15 percent, creates a loophole large enough for the super-rich to drive their Ferrari’s through. About 80 percent of the income of America’s richest 400 comes in the form of capital gains. Here’s where billionaire hedge-fund and private-equity fund managers make out like bandits. As I’ve noted, I also wish he aimed higher — for more brackets and higher rates at the very top. But at least he’s drawn a line in the sand. The veto message is clear.) Anyone who says the American economy suffers when the rich pay more in taxes doesn’t know history. We grew faster the first three decades after World War II than we have since. Trickle-down economics has been a cruel joke. On the other hand — given projected budget deficits — if the rich don’t pay their fair share, the rest of us will have to bear more of a burden. And that burden inevitably will come in the form of either higher taxes or fewer public services. If anyone’s declared class warfare it’s the people who inhabit the top rungs of big corporations and Wall Street (and who comprise a disproportionate number of America’s super rich). They’ve declared it on average workers. The ratio of corporate profits to wages is higher than it’s been since before the Great Depression. And even as corporate salaries and perks keep rising, the median wage keeping dropping, and jobs continue to be shed. You’ve got the chairman of Merck taking home $17.9 million last year. This year Merck announces plans to boot 13,000 workers. The CEO of Bank of America takes in $10 million, and the bank announces it’s firing 30,000 workers. Maybe I’m old-fashioned, but the way I see it we’ve got a huge budget deficit and a giant jobs problem. And under these circumstances it seems to me people at the top who have never had it so good should sacrifice a bit more, so the rest of us don’t have to sacrifice quite as much. According to the polls, most Americans agree. Robert Reich is the author of Aftershock: The Next Economy and America’s Future , now in bookstores. This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org .

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SEC’s Proposed Rule To Stop Banks From Profiting At Client’s Expense

September 19, 2011

(Sarah N. Lynch) – Underwriters or sponsors of asset-backed securities would be banned for one year from taking positions to profit from investors’ losses under a plan released by U.S. securities regulators on Monday. The proposal by the Securities and Exchange Commission would get at the very heart of issues raised by U.S. Senate investigators in a report earlier this year that accused Goldman Sachs of positioning itself to profit from clients’ losses on complex securities that it packaged and sold. The proposal would also prohibit the kinds of conflicts that were seen in the SEC’s civil case against Goldman in 2010 by banning third parties from helping assemble an asset-backed pool that would let those parties profit from investors’ losses. In the Goldman case, the SEC accused the bank of creating and marketing a CDO known as ABACUS 2007-AC1 without telling investors that hedge fund Paulson & Co helped choose the underlying securities and was betting against them. Goldman later settled the case for $550 million. The SEC’s proposal, expected to be put out for public comment later on Monday, would implement a provision in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street overhaul law that sought to prevent big banks from betting against financial products that they package and sell to investors. The one-year ban from taking an opposite market position from investors would not apply in certain key cases, such as when a firm is hedging its risk or acting as a market-maker. It would prohibit underwriters, placement agents, initial purchasers, sponsors, or any of their affiliates or subsidiaries of an asset-backed security from shorting the assets in the pool and creating a material conflict for investors. The shorting ban would be in effect for one year after the first closing of the sale. The securities industry will likely pay very close attention to how the SEC’s proposal fleshes out the details of the exemptions. If the SEC is too restrictive in the kinds of permitted activities, some industry executives have warned it could impede the recovery of the securitization market. (Reporting by Sarah N. Lynch; editing by John Wallace) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Third Point appeals to Yahoo founder Yang for change

September 14, 2011

(Reuters) – Yahoo Inc shareholder Daniel Loeb appealed to the company’s co-founder Jerry Yang to fire Chairman Roy Bostock and several other directors to revive the Internet media company after years of poor performance. Loeb heads hedge fund Third Point LLC, which holds a 5 percent stake in the company. After calling for Bostock’s resignation last week, Loeb spoke on the phone with him and Yang urging for a “desperately needed leadership change.” During the phone call Bostock did not “acknowledge any responsibility” for the company’s problems and that he was “not likely” to step down from the board, Loeb said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Bostock then hung up on Loeb, according to the filing. Loeb then fired off a letter to Yang issued on Wednesday expressing support and offering a list of candidates “who could help bring Yahoo back to its rightful place among the world’s top digital media and technology companies.” “As a Founder and major shareholder of the Company, the abysmal record of the current leadership must be heart-rending to you personally, as well as damaging to your net worth. We urge you to do the right thing for all Yahoo shareholders and push for desperately-needed leadership change,” Loeb wrote to Yang. Third Point has about $8 billion under management. (Reporting by Jennifer Saba; Editing by Derek Caney)

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Another loss-making event could scare investors: S&P

September 6, 2011

By Sarah Mortimer LONDON (Reuters) – Increases in the frequency and severity of natural disasters, in addition to the fact reinsurers are trading below book value, have made investors unwilling to inject capital into struggling reinsurers in the event of another loss-making event, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) said on Tuesday. Unprecedented first-half losses this year have thwarted any chance of strong earnings for reinsurers in 2011. “Given that experts predict an active U.S. wind season, if another major event makes a substantial dent in industry capital, will investors be there to replenish any lost capacity?” reinsurance analysts at S&P told a pre-Monte Carlo press briefing in London. The annual reinsurance gathering in Monte Carlo, where reinsurance executives and brokers take the temperature of the industry, takes place on September 10-11. The top 20 most costly natural catastrophes have occurred from 1970 to 2011, with 12 out of those 20 occurring in the last 10 years, S&P said, quoting statistics from the world’s second-biggest reinsurer, Swiss Re. S&P said it would take a natural disaster that erodes 5-10 percent of the capital of the sector as a whole, for S&P to review its stable rating on the sector. The rating agency would not be drawn on how much in extra insured losses this would be. S&P said it would take a natural disaster that erodes 5-10 percent of an individual reinsurance company’s capital, or 5-10 percent of the capital of the sector as a whole, for S&P to review its stable rating on the sector. The rating agency would not be drawn on how much in extra insured losses this would be. On Friday, rival rating agency Fitch said it would take a further $75 billion in insured losses in the next 24 months to cause a 10 percent erosion in the reinsurance sector’s capital. Reinsurers’ valuations are currently trading below historical norms, while publicly traded reinsurers’ have price-to-book ratios below the average, said S&P. “The discounted stocks raise questions about the level of investor interest in reinsurers. In our view, they suggest that investors may be reluctant to reinvest in reinsurers should the need arise,” said S&P in an accompanying report released on Tuesday. But reinsurers have been finding other ways to raise funds, said Dennis Sugrue, associate director at S&P. “We have seen an increased interest in sidecars and increased trading for Industry Loss Warranty (ILWs), which are more viable alternatives to setting up a traditional reinsurance startup company,” he said. Sidecars are specially created subsidiaries funded by outside investors, and ILWs allow reinsurers to buy protection against catastrophe losses from hedge funds. Reinsurers have been fuelling a revival in demand for such flexible capital instruments following a flurry of major natural disasters in the first half of 2011. The market for such structures, which allow insurers to raise funds more quickly than through traditional equity or debt, has increased as reinsurers top up their finances to take advantage of rising insurance prices. Other alternative reinsurance products, such as catastrophe bonds — whereby insurers transfer risks associated with natural disasters to capital markets investors — are efficient ways to bring capital into the market quickly, said Sugrue. “We believe these alternative forms of capital are not going to replace reinsurance, but are complimentary to the sector,” he said. (Reporting by Sarah Mortimer)

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Jared Bernstein: A Tale of Two Economies and the Inequality Dragon

August 27, 2011

Friday morning’s GDP data reveal that growth in the second quarter was a little slower than we thought — revised down to 1% from 1.3%. With 0.4% in the first quarter, that means growth in the first half of the year amounts to about 0.7%. Recall that it takes growth at trend — about 2.5%-to just keep unemployment from rising, and you will understand my incessant clamoring for someone to do something. Like FAST !, for example. There’s another reason for the urgency. You can also see in these data the resurgence of income and wealth inequality. There’s quite a lag to the inequality data, so no one knows what the trends in income or wealth disparities look like post-2008, e.g. What with high unemployment and weak middle-class earnings, along with solid corporate profits, one assumes that after taking a hit in the downturn, wealth accumulation is “back on track” as it were. That’s certainly been the pattern of the last two recessions/recoveries. Today’s data provides some evidence in support of that expectation. The first figure below shows the recent trends, up through last quarter, in corporate profits and workers’ compensation as a share of GDP. Source: BEA As you can see, corporate profits have not only recovered their post-recession highs, they’ve surpassed it. And compensation as a share of the economy is far lower. You can also compare how different these patterns look compared to last recession in 2001, when the income shifts were not nearly so sharp. It’s truly a picture of two very different economies, one for those who depend on their paychecks and one for those who depend on their portfolios. And yes, there’s an intersection of those two groups — corporate profits do not solely enrich the haves — but that’s more of nuance. The key point remains that even at less than one percent growth, stagnant real wages, and a sharp decline in the compensation share, corporate profits have more than recovered. Clearly, these corporations are selling into emerging markets, tapping productivity gains without hiring, and trading financial instruments. Nothing inherently wrong with that, unless it’s the only thing that going right in this economy. Which it kinda is. A few weeks ago I discussed the deeply corrosive impact of such extreme wealth concentration, as it shuts down new ideas that can correct this destructive trend. And just last night, I worried that we’re losing our ability to self-correct. The image of the above figure should be viewed as a big, scary dragon of sorts, as in the next figure. And we must stop its flight before it devours what’s great about America. This post originally appeared at Jared Bernstein’s On The Economy blog.

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Fed’s $1.2 Trillion In Loans ‘A Classic Case Of Moral Hazard’

August 23, 2011

During the 2008 financial crisis, when the nation’s banking system seemed on the verge of collapse, President George W. Bush authorized a $700 billion bailout of the financial industry. The U.S. Treasury implemented that program, known as TARP, in an effort to stave off economic catastrophe. At the same time, and in the years that followed, the Federal Reserve was undertaking its own rescue operation, in the form of private, previously undisclosed loans to banks and other institutions — lending as much as $1.2 trillion, nearly twice the amount of the Treasury bailout, according to a data analysis performed by Bloomberg News and published on Monday . The scope of the Fed’s private lending had previously only been guessed at, but figures obtained under the Freedom of Information Act by Bloomberg News show that the nation’s central banker issued loans to more than 300 institutions between August 2007 and April 2010, including over 100 loans of $1 billion or more. While the Fed’s loans likely helped to prevent a complete implosion of the global banking system, analysts say they fear the loans may have contributed to an atmosphere of complacency on Wall Street. Banks that received emergency cash infusions during the crisis may now believe the Fed will always be there to bail them out of trouble, the thinking goes. “It is a classic case of moral hazard,” Dimitri Papadimitriou, president of the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, told The Huffington Post. The Federal Reserve itself had argued that the details of its emergency loans should be kept out of the public eye, claiming that the reputations of the firms involved could suffer if they were seen to be taking money from the government in order to stay afloat. Many of the banks that borrowed from the Fed had previously appealed to the Supreme Court to keep those records secret. However, an invocation of the Freedom of Information Act forced the Fed to release more than 29,000 pages of documents, revealing the extent to which the financial sector relied on Federal Reserve dollars during the worst days of the crisis. Given the extraordinary size of the loans, the public has a right to know what happened, said David Jones, an executive professor at the Lutgert College of Business at Florida Gulf Coast University. “It’s completely valid at some point to say, ‘Who did the borrowing?’” Jones told The Huffington Post. “It was appropriate, under this special set of circumstances, to divulge the information.” Among the largest borrowers were Bank of America, which borrowed $91.4 billion; Goldman Sachs, which was in debt for $69 billion; JPMorgan Chase, which borrowed $68.6 billion; Citigroup, which borrowed $99.5 billion and Morgan Stanley, the biggest borrower of all, to which the Fed loaned $107 billion. In addition, the Fed issued sizable loans to a number of foreign banks, including the Royal Bank of Scotland, which borrowed $84.5 billion; Credit Suisse Group, which borrowed $60.8 billion and Germany’s Deutsche Bank, to which the Fed lent $66 billion. Nearly half of the 30 largest borrowers were European firms, according to Bloomberg News. While the amount of lending that took place is remarkable, some argue that the Fed’s error was not in issuing the loans, but rather in doing so without setting stronger policy reform conditions for the money. Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, told The Huffington Post that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke could have attached a “quid pro quo” to the emergency loans — stipulating, for example, that the money would only come through if the banks agreed to do business in a less risky way going forward. “This is the moment all the banks were on their backs,” Baker said. “The Fed ran to the rescue and got nothing in return.” A previous disclosure in December found that the Fed issued $9 trillion in low-interest overnight loans to banks and other Wall Street companies during the crisis. The $1.2 trillion figure represents the peak amount of outstanding loans, which occurred on December 5, 2008, according to Bloomberg News. Some critics contend that while the Fed was right to support the financial sector, the government didn’t do enough to help ordinary citizens who were also seeing their wealth evaporate during the crisis. Papadimitriou told The Huffington Post that the Fed issued many of its biggest loans during the Bush administration, and that “they didn’t appear to have any difficulty supporting the financial sector, but very much difficulty supporting the real sector, households.” Consumer spending suffered and unemployment spiked in the wake of the financial crisis, and the economy remains weak today. Output is low, consumer confidence is down and millions are still out of work — factors that have some economists worried about the possibility of a double-dip recession . The TARP bailout, led by the Treasury, was the subject of much popular ire when it occurred, since it was seen as a case of the government throwing money at the financial sector at the expense of everyday Americans. Similarly, the Fed’s $1.2 trillion in emergency loans were primarily aimed at keeping major financial institutions on their feet. “One would assume banks are too interconnected, you have to help all of them,” Papadimitriou said. “But if you take households in total, they are also all interconnected. They are also too big to fail.”

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Lydia Fisher: From "Too Big to Fail" Banks to "Too Big to Default" Nations to What’s Next?

August 19, 2011

I received an email from someone who was deeply touched by the way a gelateria near her home conducts its business. Their motto, Ante Lucrum Nomen — “reputation before profit.” My former mentor in the business echoed the same sentiment. What happened along the way? We’ve had financial bubbles before. This one’s got a twist though. It’s fraught with complexity, scope, depth, widespread fraud and bad underwriting practices making coming out of it, all the more difficult. As if the crisis and fallout weren’t enough, this week another headline caught my attention, “SEC Accused of Destroying Files,” (9000 documents “relating to inquiries of Wall Street banks and hedge funds”). No headline exists in a vacuum as we flit from one to the next. Thread them together, and they tell a story. We have “Too Big to Fail” banks. We now have “Too Big to Default” nations too — the US, the biggest. The names just reflect the movement of the underlying debt as private bank bad debts moved on to the US balance sheet. So as not to default, we raised the debt ceiling to 16 trillion. Meanwhile, “across the pond,” we have the Eurozone “Too Big to Defaults” — like the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain). These sovereigns are “Too Big to Default” as any default may put both Eurozone and US banks at risk in our financially interconnected world. So when I read the headline, “Fed Eyes European Banks,” Regulators Scrutinize Ability of Institutions’ U.S. Units to Fund Themselves,” no surprise. It’s like a seesaw between here and our friends “across the pond.” To address the conundrum, a Tuesday tete-a-tete between Chancellor Merkel and President Sarkozy was supposed to move things further along, beyond what’s looked like, so far, as a “rob Peter to pay Paul” approach. The idea of floating Eurobonds to help restructure European sovereign and bank debt seems scrapped for now. The tete-a-tete, yielded talk about procuring a Euro Chief and more collaboration on fiscal discipline. The markets did not much like the prospect of raising revenue by, for example, taxing financial transactions. Exchange stocks tumbled. Let’s step back here for a moment. Are we making headway? Here’s a thought : As the philosopher and labor activist Simone Weil put it in the 1930s, “Our weakness may indeed prevent us from winning but not from comprehending the force by which we are crushed.” What does that mean for us today? At present that force is a financial industry that operates with impunity. Three years into a partial collapse of the global money system that has caused mass unemployment, no executives have been held publicly responsible. The banks that were too big to fail are larger than they were before the onset of the crisis. They do not lend to small businesses. And even the weak regulations that Congress managed to pass are being stymied and their implementation delayed by fierce lobbying and Republican defunding of regulatory bodies. As I continued my headline sojourn, I kept looking for “What’s next” in this ongoing saga. A headline about Moratalla, Spain got me thinking — “Spanish Towns Face Funding Crisis, Rack Up Debts.” At some point, reality sets in. Don’t know how many of you have visited the Medieval towns peppered throughout Europe. The walkways and roadways have twists and turns. It’s rather hard to find one’s way around, let alone one’s way out — a metaphor for the conundrum the Western developing nations now find themselves in. Massive debt and obligations, amidst slowing economies and joblessness, not to mention changing demographics. Where exactly are we and what’s next? Is this Too Big to Fix? I came across this piece, “Mob Violence and the ‘Looting Bankers’ Defense.” In short, the article discusses the “looting-bankers defense” as justification for mob violence activity. But, do two wrongs make a right? Then I stumbled upon the following headline , “U.K. Leader Blames Riots on ‘Moral Collapse.’ It sort of brings it right back to the front doorstep, doesn’t it? Amidst the maze of headlines, a hopeful sign this week. Howard Shultz, CEO of Starbucks, spoke up on jobs, discipline and leadership. He appealed to his fellow colleagues to boycott campaign donations to incumbents until we fix our problems. We heard from a few Federal Reserve Governors as well. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher notes, “I believe what is restraining our economy is not monetary policy but fiscal misfeasance in Washington.” This in response to the Federal Reserve’s policy to hold short-term interest rates near zero over the next two years. More candles are being lit. Some take steps to say “good-bye” to a throttled corporate existence to start their own businesses. Maybe, there’s something to what Buckminster Fuller (20th century American engineer, author and futurist) wrote in his book Critical Path : You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete. What’s next? The Renaissance is up to us.

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The Next Berkshire Hathaway?

August 16, 2011

In a four-page letter, Christopher P. Mittleman, the chief investment officer at a small New York money manager, likens the embattled hedge fund billionaire Philip A. Falcone to Warren E. Buffett.

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Making Sense Of Thursday’s Violent Market Selloff

August 5, 2011

Technical factors played a role in Thursday’s unsettling market moves, including the disorderly across-the-board collapse in the price of risk assets in the final hour of trading and the related surge in U.S. Treasurys. But they were not the cause. Rather, they amplified three factors that will determine the fate of markets in the weeks ahead.

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Joseph J. Thorndike: Why Liberals Should Learn to Love the Debt Debate

August 2, 2011

The debt limit crisis is the best thing to happen to liberalism in 30 years. It’s a manufactured crisis, of course. Republicans conjured it out of thin air, convinced that it will force a radical — and permanent — reduction in the size of government. But they’re wrong. Far from starving the beast, the debt limit debate is just as likely to feed it. By rescuing taxes from the political wilderness, it has given liberals a chance to rebuild the fiscal foundation of progressive government. A Fake Crisis As any number of levelheaded commentators have pointed out, the debt ceiling is all about the past, not the future. It’s a function of spending and taxing decisions made years ago. (And made by many of the same lawmakers decrying those decisions today.) By extension, raising the debt limit is really a question of collective accountability. In a democracy, you take responsibility for your government’s decisions, even if you didn’t like them when they were made and you like them even less today. That’s the deal — you don’t get to pick and choose. Of course, it’s possible to transform the debt ceiling into something more than simply a procedural hurdle. If you’re suitably rash, you can make it about the future as well as the past. Over the past few months, Republicans in the House have shown us how it’s done: Start walking the nation toward the edge of the abyss and threaten to keep on going. A Real Crisis But if the short-term crisis over a debt ceiling is fake, the long-term crisis over debt itself is very real. As William Gale and Benjamin Harris asserted in a recent paper for the Tax Policy Center , “The United States faces a large medium-term federal budget deficit and an unsustainable long-term fiscal gap. Left unattended, these shortfalls will hobble and eventually cripple the economy.” Those warnings have been around for years, but politicians have shown scant interest in making the hard decisions that would actually stave off disaster. Politics-as-usual doesn’t make room for much in the way of sacrifice. But the artificial crisis of the debt ceiling debate has recast politics, spurring change in the face of intractable inertia. And in that sense, it’s been spectacularly effective. By insisting that payment of past debts be tied to future spending, the House GOP has managed to put entitlements on the table. That’s no small feat. But the debt limit crisis has also put taxes on the table. Sure, Republicans are toeing the Tea Party line against any sort of revenue increase. That hasn’t changed, and it isn’t likely to change soon. Even their spin on the pending compromise seeks to minimize the likelihood of a tax hike. But for the first time in many years, Democrats are talking seriously — and even proudly — about the need for more tax revenue. In fact, the transformation is even more profound, challenging the antitax politics that have dominated national politics since 1980. Fake Tax Policy Now let’s be clear: The specific tax proposals coming from the White House are less than serious. Years ago, then-candidate Barack Obama staked out his position on soaking the rich, and as president, he’s been sticking to it. His speech July 25 on the debt ceiling impasse was typical: Most Americans, regardless of political party, don’t understand how we can ask a senior citizen to pay more for her Medicare before we ask corporate jet owners and oil companies to give up tax breaks that other companies don’t get. How can we ask a student to pay more for college before we ask hedge fund managers to stop paying taxes at a lower rate than their secretaries? How can we slash funding for education and clean energy before we ask people like me to give up tax breaks we don’t need and didn’t ask for? Jet owners, oil companies, Wall Street, and himself: These are the usual targets Obama offers up for tax increases. If you’re serious about solving the nation’s long-term fiscal problems, these tax reforms are a sideshow. Real Tax Policy But they’re a necessary sideshow, at least for anyone committed to serious fiscal reform. Ultimately, solving the long-term fiscal crisis will require both spending cuts and tax increases. Both elements will be broadly regressive, sparing the rich and soaking the poor. Lower spending will squeeze programs that principally benefit the non-wealthy, including Medicare and Social Security. Meanwhile, tax increases — at least the kind necessary to make a real dent in the fiscal gap — will fall on everyone, not just the rich. The regressive nature of meaningful fiscal reform — including the likely introduction of a broad-based consumption tax — militates for compensatory policy. In particular, it underscores the need for higher taxes on the rich. If political leaders are going to ask poor and middle-class Americans for sacrifice, they have an obligation to make sure that rich Americans share the pain. Taxing corporate jets, of course, won’t do that. To right the scales of tax justice, more substantive progressive reform is vital. In particular, lawmakers should eliminate the preferential treatment of capital gains (which would, of course, solve the carried interest issue, too). There aren’t many Democrats willing to make that argument — at least not yet. But the sideshow reforms currently in play still represent progress for liberals. By insisting that taxes are a necessary part of any balanced approach, they are building the foundation for a broader program of progressive tax reform. Small Steps Democrats have a long way to go. They are nowhere near breaking the bad tax news to lower- and middle-income Americans. But they finally have a president who is trying to restore the value proposition that lies at the heart of progressive governance. “We all want a government that lives within its means,” Obama said last week. “But there are still things we need to pay for as a country — things like new roads and bridges; weather satellites and food inspection; services to veterans and medical research.” And there it is: the hoary “price of civilization” argument that Oliver Wendell Holmes made famous and American voters made reality. With taxes, we do buy civilization. But Democrats have been afraid to say so for decades. Finally, they may be starting to speak up.

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Stock Market Ends Worst Week In A Year

July 29, 2011

(Caroline Valetkevitch) – Stocks ended the worst week in a year as time runs out on Washington to reach agreement before the government loses its ability to borrow money. The S&P 500 fell every day this week and was down 3.9 percent for the week as legislators failed to work out an agreement to raise the federal borrowing limit, which expires on Tuesday. Investors also worry about the likelihood of a U.S. credit downgrade. The CBOE Market Volatility Index .VIX, a gauge of investor fear, jumped as much as 9 percent to its highest level since mid-March before paring its rise. Natalie Trunow, chief investment officer of equities at Calvert Investment Management in Bethesda, Maryland, said investors are taking a more defensive stance, possibly moving more into cash. “It’s frustrating for investors and for U.S. citizens to see this unfold in the way it has been,” she said. “From an overall asset allocation standpoint, in an environment like this, you get bigger moves into cash and safe havens.” The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 96.87 points, or 0.79 percent, at 12,143.24. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX was down 8.39 points, or 0.65 percent, at 1,292.28. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 9.87 points, or 0.36 percent, at 2,756.38. President Barack Obama told Republicans and Democrats to find a way “out of this mess.” The United States will be unable to borrow money to pay its bills if Congress does not raise the debt limit by August 2. A second attempt for a vote in the House of Representatives is expected after the close of trading on Friday after a bill was modified to try to win over more conservative lawmakers. The measure has little chance of passing in the Senate, however. At least one credit rating agency has said it is likely to lower the United States’ prized tripe-A rating if the cuts in Washington don’t go far enough. “Will the deal be enough to satisfy the credit rating agencies is really what’s at stake here,” Trunow said, whose firm manages about $14.8 billion. The S&P utility index .GSPU is down 2.1 percent for the week, while the Dow is down 4.2 percent and the Nasdaq is down 3.6 percent for the week. The S&P 500 briefly fell below its 200-day moving average, seen as key support, and bounced back from its worst levels of the day. Weak economic data also weighed on equities. The U.S. economy stumbled badly in the first half of this year and came dangerously close to contracting in the January-March period. Among declining stocks, Chevron Corp (CVX.N), the second-largest U.S. oil company, fell 1 percent to $104.02 despite reporting a 43 percent jump in quarterly profit that beat estimates. (Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Kenneth Barry) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Iowa Senator Questions Education Department’s Ties To Hedge Funds

July 29, 2011

Senator Charles E. Grassley is examining whether Education Department officials disclosed confidential government information to hedge fund managers, including the well-known stock picker Steve Eisman. The inquiry stems from the agency’s recent efforts to overhaul the for-profit college industry, which has been accused of saddling students with huge piles of debt. Expecting tough new rules in the wake of the controversy, Mr. Eisman and other hedge fund traders placed huge bets against the industry. In a letter this week, Mr. Grassley questioned the education secretary, Arne Duncan, about the agency’s ties to the hedge fund world and the lack of policies restricting contact with Wall Street players.

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As Layoffs Hit Wall Street, Lowest-Paid Workers Lose Jobs

July 22, 2011

NEW YORK — Layoffs have returned to Wall Street as investment banks bemoaning economic malaise and disappointing revenues are moving to pare their payrolls, by far their largest expense. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have announced plans to eliminate hundreds of employees, UBS and Credit Suisse are reportedly preparing to cut thousands of jobs and Barclays Capital has already imposed two rounds of layoffs this year. But as banks again resort to pink slips, they appear inclined to spare the most generously compensated executives — the people who enjoyed the biggest gains from the bubble in mortgage-related investments that savaged the economy — while instead dismissing less-expensive employees. “Wall Street is a cutthroat business. That’s how the capital market system works,” said Sung Won Sohn, a former Wells Fargo chief economist who is now a finance professor at California State University Channel Islands. “The more seasoned, experienced, higher-paid people have a lot more connections and contacts. That is very, very valuable. Whereas junior, younger people are more replaceable.” In June, Barclays Capital cut employees, including first-year analysts who had been hired last year out of college to work in the New York investment banking division, a person familiar with the situation told The Huffington Post. Morgan Stanley released plans earlier this year to lay off up to 300 workers in its retail brokerage, including trainees. At Goldman Sachs, employees losing their jobs will include “junior people,” the firm’s chief financial officer said during a conference call this week. But being seasoned doesn’t provide a job guarantee, either. In the end, the decision comes down to the company’s bottom line, and whether an employee is capable of fattening it. “Length of time at the firm doesn’t matter, it doesn’t help you,” said Kim Woodle, 54, who was laid off from his job as a computer programmer at Morgan Stanley in 2009, in the midst of the Great Recession. He had been working there for almost a decade, but his total pay, including bonus and benefits, was below average, reaching about $180,000 in 2008, he said. The average Morgan Stanley employee that year made over $265,000, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. “I’d gotten good performance reviews for nine years,” Woodle said. “And people who’d been there less kept their jobs.” Woodle is still out of work, he said. Like many workers who lose their jobs in middle age, he said he feels like he’s competing with recent college graduates, who will work for less pay. He had planned to retire at 65, he said. But now, as he subsists on disability payments and his wife’s income, retirement plans have been called into doubt. A spokeswoman for Morgan Stanley declined to comment on Woodle’s case. By many accounts, thousands more Wall Street employees are about to suffer the bewildering experience of losing their jobs. Banks are complaining of a slump in trading volume, a point reinforced this week when titan Goldman Sachs announced tepid second-quarter earnings. At Goldman, revenue from trading bonds, commodities and currencies dropped by more than half in the second quarter. The numbers had prominent analysts openly wondering whether the most profitable investment bank in Wall Street history had lost its magic. David Viniar, the firm’s chief financial officer, said during a conference call Tuesday that he wouldn’t “sugar coat” the results, explaining that the company might have “made a bad decision in taking too little risk.” Goldman now plans to cut 1,000 jobs. Viniar said during the call that those cuts would include “some more senior, some more junior people.” The firm isn’t alone. The Swiss investment bank UBS is preparing to cut 5,000 jobs, according to a report by a Swiss newspaper last week. Its rival Credit Suisse plans to cut at least 1,500 jobs, the Wall Street Journal reported . Morgan Stanley is considering laying off “several thousand” people, Fox Business reported last week . (The Morgan Stanley spokeswoman said the firm is “not considering any large-scale firm-wide layoffs at this time.”) The recent layoffs at Barclays, the British investment bank that bought a smoldering piece of the wrecked Lehman Brothers in 2008, followed a round of dismissals in January, according to various reports at the time. The first-year analysts at Barclays who were laid off in June could otherwise have graduated to second-year status in July, meriting a pay bump, the person familiar with the situation said. A typical base salary for a Barclays first-year analyst is $70,000, this person said. A spokeswoman for Barclays declined to comment. Employees at several investment banks said Wall Street layoffs can appear to follow a rule that’s familiar to any police officer, firefighter or teacher who’s borne the brunt of municipal cutbacks: last hired, first fired. With top executives still hauling down salaries and bonuses that reach well into seven figures, some bank employees expressed bewilderment that the greenest — and cheapest — hires were being let go. “A decent IT project is tens of millions of dollars. If you fire every analyst out there, it doesn’t add up to one IT project,” said an executive at one of the nation’s biggest banks. “It doesn’t save that much money.” For the people actually losing the jobs, the result can be a profound crisis. “We’ll get panicked calls,” this executive continued. “Somebody’s friend or classmate will call up and say, ‘I lost my job, I don’t even know where to start, can you help me out?’ That happens all the time.” One 20-year Wall Street veteran, who works at an investment bank planning cost-cutting measures, said new employees are vulnerable to cuts precisely because they’re new, and haven’t yet developed a network of friends in the firm. “There’s always a ripple effect of people being bummed out when somebody gets laid off,” he said. “Even if a person is good, if they’ve only been at a place for a year or so, they just haven’t developed this web of internal connections that helps protect you in a situation like this.” He added that the layoff process isn’t scientific. “It’s a subjective call. It really is,” he said. “You just know there are going to be some people that are let go that shouldn’t be.” The round of job cuts has some observers drawing comparisons to the period immediately following the financial crisis, when Wall Street firms laid off sizable percentages of their workforces. The number of people employed in financial activities in New York City dropped by more than 7 percent between September 2008 and 2009, the year after the crisis struck, state data show. In the wake of a $700 billion taxpayer bailout, as Wall Street compensation came under scrutiny, firms reduced bonuses for employees — but also boosted base salaries. Those fixed costs have made banks less flexible when hard times strike, experts say. Now, with trading activity anemic, those banks are scrounging around for savings. “If you’re eliminating the lowest x percent, you have more to spend on the top x percent. That is just a natural thing,” said Wendi Lazar, a partner at the law firm Outten & Golden, where she co-runs the transactional practice group. “We saw it with Lehman and Bear — there was an enormous amount of house-cleaning,” said Lazar, who represents financial executives. “It’s an opportunity to get rid of people who are not at the top of the food chain.”

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S&P Puts U.S. Credit Ratings On Negative Watch

July 15, 2011

(Reuters) – Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s has warned there is a one-in-two chance it could cut the United States’ prized triple-A rating if a deal on raising the government’s debt ceiling is not agreed soon. Putting the U.S. on negative watch, S&P warned that it could cut the rating this month if talks between the White House and Republicans remain stalemated. Any cut would be by one or more notches, it added. “Today’s CreditWatch placement signals our view that, owing to the dynamics of the political debate on the debt ceiling, there is at least a one-in-two likelihood that we could lower the long-term rating on the U.S. within the next 90 days,” the agency said in a statement on Thursday. The deadline to raise the ceiling is on August 2. “We have also placed our short-term rating on the U.S. on CreditWatch negative, reflecting our view that the current situation presents such significant uncertainty to the U.S.’ creditworthiness.” The agency also warned that even if there was a deal done on raising the ceiling, it might still cut the rating if it was not convinced that the deal would stabilize the country’s medium-term debt dynamics. “If an agreement is reached, but we do not believe that it likely will stabilize the U.S.’ debt dynamics, we, again all other things unchanged, would expect to lower the long-term ‘AAA’ rating, affirm the ‘A-1+’ short-term rating, and assign a negative outlook on the long-term rating,” said S&P. (Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Balazs Koranyi) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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