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Huffington Post…

“Never prophesy, especially about the future.” That nicely captures the perils of predictions – so nicely, indeed, that the saying or a version of it has been credited to numerous people, from the movie mogul Sam Goldwyn to baseball’s Yogi Berra. But in practice, we do have to prophesy, however imperfectly. Take climate change, an issue that involves assessing what could happen decades ahead, and how to respond to it. Or take defence planning: despite the difficulty of forecasting the nature of future conflicts, decisions have to be taken today that will affect how wars are fought for years to come (the F-13 Joint Strike Fighter, for example, the most expensive defence-industrial project ever, is planned to be a mainstay of American and Western air forces until at least 2060). Similarly long horizons are involved in planning for our energy needs and our pensions. So we need to look at the long term. Where to begin? A good place to start is with population trends – which is why this is the subject of the first of the 20 essays brought together in Megachange: The World in 2050 , a book published by The Economist this month. The world’s population is changing very fast. It took 250,000 years for it to reach 1 billion, around 1800. The latest billion, taking the number of people on the planet to 7 billion, took just a dozen years (a landmark the United Nations said was reached last October). By 2050 the global population will have risen to a little over 9 billion, according to the UN’s central projections. And by then the global population will be older (the median age will rise from 29 to 38) and more urban, with nearly 70% living in cities and towns, compared with just over 50% today. It will also be more African: about half the extra 2.3 billion people on the planet by 2050 will be in Africa. In 1950 Europe accounted for over a fifth of the world’s population, and Africa for a tenth; those proportions are on their way to being reversed. By 2050, there will probably be nearly as many Nigerians (close to 400 million) as Americans. Very broadly, from the point of view of population patterns, the world will fall into three groups between now and 2050. The first consists of younger-than-average countries where the share of the economically active population relative to that of dependent children and elderly will be very favourable. These countries will potentially enjoy a ‘demographic dividend’, if there is enough productive work for their large numbers of working-age people (or they could face instability if jobs are scarce). In this group are India, the Middle East and Africa. In the second category of countries are those where the average age is rising, but not by much, and where the share of the working-age population relative to the young and old is deteriorating, but only modestly. The United States is in this group, as are Latin America and South-East Asia. The third group – and the big losers from the demographic changes in the next four years – includes Europe, Japan and China. Japan will be the oldest society ever known, with as many dependents as people of working age. And China, thanks not least to the legacy of its one-child population, will start to age rapidly. By 2050 its population will be older not only that America’s, but even than Europe’s. China really is in a race to grow rich before it grows old. All this has big consequences: for the economy, business, security, migration, health and the demands on resources, not to mention for culture and social change. It should inform many of the policy decisions taken today. The sooner we start preparing for the coming demographic changes and all that flows from them, the better our long-term prospects will be. Megachange: The World in 2050 is available now.

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Daniel Franklin: Why Now is a Good Time to Be Thinking About 2050

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Evelyn Robert de Rothschild: Monetary Express

by Evelyn Robert de Rothschild on March 14, 2012

Huffington Post…

I owe my life to the remarkable generosity of America’s political system, which under legislation from Franklin D. Roosevelt, welcomed thousands of children from England during World War II. It is out of this respect, and out of a fear for how money is corroding America’s political system, that I call for a rethink of how we approach campaign finance. “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech…” Perhaps no other words have played as important of a role in shaping the freedom and prosperity of the United States as have the ones found in the First Amendment. And perhaps no other amendment in the constitution has led to more unintended consequences by America’s political and judiciary system. Under the cloak of freedom of speech, and thanks to the Supreme Court’s systematic effort to remove barriers preventing the unlimited use of money in political campaign, political spending has spiraled out of control in America. The pervasiveness of money in American politics is no more apparent than in presidential elections. In 2008, Barack Obama and John McCain collectively raised over $1.7 billion. That is more than double the money raised by George W. Bush and John Kerry in 2004. Obama alone spent $730 million to get elected to the White House in 2008. By contrast, the entire 2010 UK general election, which fielded over 4,000 candidates for Parliament, cost just £31.5 million ($49 million), £10.8 million ($16.8 million) less than the 2005 general elections. David Cameron spent a mere £14,000 ($22,000) on his campaign in 2010, and the average candidate spent just under £3,500. The rise of outside spending, and particularly of ‘SuperPACs,’ will push the cost of the 2012 election even higher. Going into Super Tuesday, outside groups had already spent over well over $88 million during this 2012 election cycle. SuperPACs alone have already spent $66 million, $1 million more than SuperPACs spent during the entire 2010 election cycle, and we are still nine months away from the general election. While factors, such as the advent of 24 hour news industry, have contributed, unbridled political campaign costs, shielded by the systematic misinterpretation of the First Amendment, have been the main barriers preventing those without access to vast amounts of money from running for political office. Beginning in the 1970s, and culminating in the Citizen’s United case in 2010, the Supreme Court has equated political spending to free speech, arguing that any restrictions to that spending curtails a candidates First Amendment rights. Many since abused this interpretation unethically, flooding campaigns with cash at the expense of those without similar financial power. In effect, those without money cannot compete in the US political system. Restricting political spending is not a ‘substantial burden’ on free speech rights of candidates, as Chief Justice Roberts recently put it when he struck down matching funds in Arizona last year. Quite the opposite. It broadens free speech to candidates with less money, and requires those with money to compete in a larger field. The monetary express that has taken over America’s politics has gotten out of hand. Only without the distraction of unlimited contributions will politicians be able to focus on their job of governing again. To do this, we must rebuild a campaign finance system predicated on competitive and balanced political spending. More importantly, we must stop abusing the First Amendment as the right to spend unlimited amounts and begin treating the freedom to speech more ethically.

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Evelyn Robert de Rothschild: Monetary Express

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Lynn Forester de Rothschild: Women at the Very Top

March 8, 2012

As I join my colleagues to celebrate International Women’s Day at this year’s WIE Symposium in London, I laud the advancement of women over the past few decades, but know that we have much to do in order to achieve gender equality in our societies in the UK and the US. Over the past four decades, society has broadly accepted and integrated women in the workplace. But, this has not yet reached the highest political offices, the boardrooms and the CEO offices of the corporate world. Women are still largely absent from leadership positions and are too often perceived to be incompatible with positions of power and leadership. This absence of women in positions of power is a painful reminder that gender equality is still an aspiration, not a reality. When I was in law school in the US in the late 1970s, I could not imagine a female US President or Secretary of the Treasury, or even a CEO of a large company like Goldman Sachs or General Motors. Although I was fortunate enough to have a supportive family where my aspirations were treated no differently from those of my brothers, I subliminally believed that women were barred from making it to the very top. With no examples, my sights were limited. Since then, great women like Hillary Clinton, Angela Merkel, Christine Lagarde, Margaret Thatcher, Meg Whitman; CEO of HP, Marjorie Scardino; CEO of Pearsons, Angela Ahrendts; CEO of Burberry and Virginia Rometty; CEO of IBM, have crashed through the glass ceiling. They lead the way for all other devoted and qualified women. The younger generation of women is clearly getting the education required for the top ranks of career success. Over half of college graduates in the US are women, and more than 70% of valedictorians in the US education system are women. Women now account for over half the US labour force and are the majority in management, and professional occupations. In the UK, women account for over 56% of all college graduates and just under half of the workforce (46%). Women are poised for the top jobs in business, government and civil society. Despite all of this, women remain rare in top political positions in the US and the UK and in corporate board rooms and as chief executives. Sadly, neither the US nor the UK has a female head of state or head of government, and only 22% of members of parliament in the UK and 18% of members of Congress in the US are women. There are only five women CEOs in Britain’s top 100 companies. The ratio is even less in the US, where 18, or less than half one percent, of the top 500 companies are led by women. Women represent less than 15% of board seats in the UK’s top companies, and the US is not much better. I do not believe that the reasons for the disparity between women and men in power are due to a lack of capability or temperament of women. Rather, the potential of women is being lost because of the failure of our society to understand and tap the potential of woman at the highest levels. What can be done? Legislation alone will not solve this problem. Public declarations or quotas to increase the representation of women can only go so far – Lord Davies’ Women on Boards report is case in point. The FTSE 100 are on track to the government’s goal of having a minimum of 25% female board representation by 2017 – two years after his recommended deadline. The FTSE 250 fare even worse, and will miss the target by more than four years. Rather, each and every one of us, individually and collectively, must alter the way we see the role of women in leadership positions. The business community – both men and women – needs to encourage and support more women in positions of leadership. We need to change the collective mindset of our society about what is appropriate for women, so more women feel that they will not just be a part of the work force but also part of the top leadership posts. Women leaders should be celebrated as the norm, not as aberrations. If we can see it – if women who aspire for success can tangibly see the light at the top of the corporate or political ladder – then they can certainly be it. That is the key to winning the battle of gender inequality at the top of our society. Today’s WIE Symposium gets to the heart of this issue by celebrating successful women and reminding us that it is normal for women to want and expect to reach the top. The best way to celebrate today is to reaffirm for all women that the level of their success is based solely on their competence, hard work, and determination and never their gender. Most importantly, today is a day to inspire the next generation of women to pursue their dreams and flourish in their success. Lynn Forester de Rothschild is CEO of EL Rothschild, LLC. You can follow her on Facebook , Twitter , and at Ldereport.com .

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‘Dead Wrong’

February 25, 2012

OMAHA, Neb. – Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said Saturday that he was “dead wrong” with a prediction that the U.S. housing market would begin to recover by now, but he remains optimistic about the nation’s economy. In his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett said he is sure housing will recover eventually and help bring down the nation’s unemployment rate. But he did not predict when that will happen. Investors eagerly await the letter from Buffett, 81, the so-called Oracle of Omaha, who built a roughly $44 billion fortune by following a steadfast, no-nonsense investing strategy. Buffett said housing “remains in a depression of its own,” but he predicted, in typical plainspoken style, that the housing market will come back because some human factors can’t be denied forever. “People may postpone hitching up during uncertain times, but eventually hormones take over,” he wrote. “And while ‘doubling-up’ may be the initial reaction of some during a recession, living with in-laws can quickly lose its allure.” The housing prediction proved painful for Berkshire Hathaway. It owns more than 80 subsidiaries, including the Geico insurance company and See’s Candy, and five of them depend on construction activity. Those businesses, which include Acme Brick, Clayton Homes and Shaw carpet, generated pre-tax profits of $513 million last year. That’s well off the $1.8 billion those companies added to Berkshire in 2006. Berkshire’s insurance companies took $1.7 billion in catastrophe losses last year, including from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Berkshire reported only $154 million in underwriting profit, down from $1.3 billion the previous year. But several of Berkshire’s larger non-insurance businesses — Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad, MidAmerican Energy, Marmon Group, Lubrizol and Iscar — all generated record earnings in 2011. That helped Berkshire as a whole to generate $10.3 billion in net income, or $6,215 per Class A share, last year, down from nearly $13 billion, or $7,928 per share, in 2010. A Class A share of Berkshire stock, which has never been split by the company, traded for $120,000 on Friday. Its more affordable Class B shares traded for about $80. Buffett reassured Berkshire shareholders that the company has someone in mind to replace him eventually, but did not name the successor. He emphasized that he has no plans to leave. Glenn Tongue, a managing partner at T2Partners investment firm, said he was struck by the fact that Buffett chose to deal with the succession topic as one of the first items in his letter. “I think this was a forceful and stronger attempt to put this issue to bed,” Tongue said. Buffett offered a couple of details about Berkshire’s succession planning in this year’s letter. Investors have long worried about who will replace Buffett as Berkshire chairman and CEO. Buffett said the Berkshire board is enthusiastic about the executive it has picked and said there are two good back-up candidates. “When a transfer of responsibility is required, it will be seamless, and Berkshire’s prospects will remain bright,” Buffett said. Previously, Buffett had said only that the board had three internal candidates for the CEO job. Berkshire plans to split Buffett’s jobs into three parts to replace him with a CEO, a chairman and several investment managers. Berkshire has also cleared up some succession questions by hiring two hedge fund managers, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. Buffett says those two have the “brains, judgment and character” to manage Berkshire’s entire portfolio eventually. ___ Online: Berkshire Hathaway Inc.: www.berkshirehathaway.com

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Canada ‘Threatening Trade War With Europe’ Over Oil Sands

February 20, 2012

Canada is threatening a trade war with the European Union over a proposal that would effectively ban oil sands bitumen from Europe, the Guardian reported on Monday. ” Canada will not hesitate to defend its interests, including at the World Trade Organisation ,” Canadian envoys stated in multiple letters to European energy officials. The letters were obtained by activist group Friends of the Earth Europe under freedom of information requests. The EU is debating whether to issue a Fuel Quality Directive that would label oil sands product 22 per cent more polluting than conventional oil , effectively banning it from being used in the 25-country area. A vote on the move is scheduled for Feb. 23. “If the final measures single out oil sands crude in a discriminatory, arbitrary or unscientific way, or are otherwise inconsistent with the EU’s international trade obligations, I want to state that Canada will explore every avenue at its disposal to defend its interests, including at the World Trade Organisation,” said one letter, from Canada’s ambassador to the EU, David Plunkett, to Connie Hedegaard, the EU’s climate action czar. Canadian officials reiterated the assertion that a ban on oil sands product would “unscientific” in a statement to the Guardian , an assertion the EU rejects. “The Commission identified the most carbon-intensive sources in its science-based proposal. This way high-emission fossil fuels will be labelled and given the proper value. It is only reasonable to give high values to more polluting products than to less polluting products,” Hedegaard told the Guardian. The Guardian’s revelations come as a new Canadian study has found that Alberta’s oil sands have relatively little impact on carbon emissions, and that coal and natural gas pose a much larger problem .

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Harry Reid Backs Obama’s Call For Congressional Insider Trading Ban

January 25, 2012

WASHINGTON — Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said Tuesday night he would support legislation to end insider trading among members of Congress and saw no reason why the bill couldn’t become law this year. President Barack Obama called on Congress during his State of the Union address to swiftly pass legislation barring legislators from investing in companies whose business is affected by matters before the two chambers. “Well, I think people should have enough sense not to do it without legislation, but I will support legislation,” Reid told a handful of reporters after the speech. Could the bill become law this year? “I don’t see why it shouldn’t,” Reid said. Senate Republicans were glad to hear of Reid’s willingness to back the bill — or at least his inability to see how its demise might come about. “Oh good! I hope he schedules it for floor action,” Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said when told about Reid’s backing. Collins is the top-ranking Republican on the Senate committee that approved the legislation in question, the Stock Act. The committee chairman, Sen. Joe Lieberman, said he was glad to hear the president backs the bill. “I think [the bill's prospects] were helped by the president’s endorsement, but the bill came out of committee on a bipartisan basis,” said Lieberman (I-Conn). “It’s one of those things we can do to restore some trust and confidence in confidence.” The bill is casually referred to in the Capitol as “The 60 Minutes Act,” a reference to a report by the television program about a series of insider trades by members of Congress. At the time, I wrongly reported that 60 Minutes’ poor choice of targets for its report, and its clumsy attempt to connect specific trading to specific legislative action, set momentum for the bill back. Instead, in fact, the report propelled the legislation forward. Still, during Obama’s endorsement of the bill, the House floor was awfully quiet, belying the public offers of support. And Reid wasn’t exactly enthusiastic about embracing Obama’s expansion of the bill to block all lobbyists from bundling political contributions, and all bundlers from lobbying. “I don’t think he said that,” Reid said. “He talked about bundlers and he talked about lobbyists, I guess, or some bundlers are lobbyists, I guess. I don’t know. Nevertheless, it’s an easy bill to support. “I hope he brings it to the floor. I don’t see a lot of controversy there,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said.

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Occupy Movement Responds To Obama’s State Of The Union

January 25, 2012

The Washington, D.C. faction of the Occupy movement is slated to issue a response to President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address Tuesday. From their encampment in McPherson Square in D.C., Occupiers are expected to deliver their message via the “people’s microphone,” a system of call-and-response where one person reads part of a statement and the crowd then repeats it. An organizer for Occupy D.C. tells the Atlantic Wire that their group didn’t coordinate with the larger Occupy Wall Street movement. Choire Sicha at The Awl gives a preview from an embargoed press release sent around to reporters, writing that it’s strangely “off-key”: The language of the speech is bombastic yet vague, unspecific and sort of… narcissistic? Lots of rambling about how politics is bought and paid for, yadda yadda. (I mean, yes, that’s true! But it’s just atmospherics; why not name some names then?) About half of its claims are reminiscent of the Tea Party. (To be fair, Occupy and the Tea Party share about a 50% base common interest! Which is good and fascinating!) What’s worse about the planned speech is: it’s vaguely poetic without at all being poetry. Their rebuttal is expected to be streamed live, via Occupy DC’s UStream account . Below, Occupy’s entire statement: This 2012 “State of the 99%” response to the State of the Union will be delivered by a group of Occupiers assembled outside in a well-lit spot at McPherson Square following the conclusion of the President’s State of the Union address and/or the Tea Party response. The presentation will unfold this way: one participant will begin in the center/front of the group, in the middle of the camera frame, surrounded by the others. That person will deliver the first line of the speech, and will then be echoed by the People’s Mic. That person will then read their second line, and as the People’s Mic echoes the second line, that person will move off to the side and rejoin the group, while another person will step into the center spot to read the next two lines, with each line again echoed by the People’s Mic. This will continue, cycling through the crowd, with each person reading two lines and being echoed by the People’s Mic. Mic check! [mic check] Mic check! [mic check] Fellow Americans, good evening! [Fellow Americans, good evening!] We are men and women of the 99 percent Many of us have spent many months at Occupy Wall Street and at other Occupations across the country and around the world We are here tonight to report on the State of the 99 percent in America Of course most Americans know the state of the 99 percent very well But sometimes the one percent, on Wall Street and in Washington, need a reminder Financially, the state of the 99% is not strong That is an understatement. Never in our lifetimes have so many hard-working Americans Faced so many difficulties, so many uncertainties, so many indignities In Occupy camps around the country We find Americans from all walks of life [3 personal story couplets] Some of us have had it rougher than others And it turns out living in camps is no picnic either But we do not give up easily And we take inspiration from the brave Americans who came before us From Dr. King, who gave his life fighting for economic justice From the Suffragettes, who insisted the voice of women be heard From all of those brave or foolish enough to believe in America’s defining idea theidea of democracy That we are all created equal And we all have an equal voice in shaping the laws we all live by America Let’s be honest. When our courts tell us corporations have more right to speak than we the people do That’s not democracy. When pepper spray and midnight raids make a joke of the 1st Amendment right to assemble. That’s not democracy. When defrauding clients, blowing up our economy, forging thousands of documents and seizing people’s homes illegally is not a crime but protesting all that is a crime That’s not democracy. Our America is not a democracy, not yet. We all know why: Wall street owns Washington. Bribery is legal, and the laws we live by are for sale to the highest bidder That is why our government serves the very rich and powerful at the expense of the rest of us It protects the bonuses of bankers and Wall Street executives, while failing to keep hard-working families in their homes; It shields offshore tax havens for the very wealthy, while letting our bridges, schools, and infrastructure fall apart; There have been dark periods in our nation’s history, when corruption became the norm when grave injustices stood in the way of America living up to its best ideals. But time and time again, Americans stepped up to take back their government and correct our course. Today Occupy Wall Street and the 99% movement step into this proud American tradition. But fear not, one percent! We are not here just to help the 99% at your expense. We are here to help you too. For when you’ve begun to think rigging the game is fair game When you regard hard-working Americans as undeserving of a middle-class life and unworthy of the profit their own work creates When you treat the people who build your buildings and serve your food and raise your children and patrol your streets without respect You have not only lost touch with our humanity You have lost touch with your own humanity You need to find it again, for everyone’s sake Real democracy will do you good We are the 99% We are here to create the democracy we have all been promised. We are the 99%. Our finances are weak, but our spirit is strong. We are the 99%. Our spring is coming.

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How Mitt Romney Got A Seven-Digit Windfall Courtesy Of Goldman Sachs

January 24, 2012

Mitt Romney, man of considerable wealth, has Goldman Sachs to thank for at least some of his fortune. In his 2010 and preliminary 2011 tax returns, made available for public viewing on Tuesday, Romney’s relationship with the Wall Street firm comes to life — one in which a future Republican presidential candidate benefited from preferential treatment during the iconic investment bank’s initial public offering in 1999. (Read More about the Mitt Romney-Goldman Sachs connection at The Caucus) As noted by The New York Times , Romney experienced a seven-digit windfall in 2010 thanks to his connection with Goldman Sachs, which handled many of the candidate’s assets in return for some $48,582 in management fees . Romney’s bonanza came about as a result of a 2010 sale of 7,000 stock shares from Goldman Sachs’s initial public offering, which happened in 1999. At the time, Goldman’s public launch raised some eyebrows for how carefully the company steered the allocation of its own stock. The fact that Romney was even given the opportunity to have shares in the company when it went public makes him part of a rather exclusive club, as shares went to a handpicked group of customers, employees, and partners . Romney acquired 7,000 shares, which went into a blind trust managed by Goldman itself — eventually netting $1,130,123.87 . That sale wasn’t the only time that Romney realized financial benefits as a result of his connection with Goldman Sachs. The Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks campaign contributions from the employees, owners and political action committees of various organizations, lists Goldman Sachs as the top donor to Romney’s campaign in this election. Romney’s relationship with Goldman Sachs could raise questions about his ability to police the financial sector in the wake of the financial crisis. Still, he’s not alone in getting criticized. The cozy relationship between Wall Street and Washington has come under fire thanks in part to the Occupy movement .

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Wendy Brandes: The Agony and Ecstasy of a Small Business

January 24, 2012

I have a small fine-jewelry business . I’ve also had a root canal. I think they’re very similar: Forewarned might be forearmed, but it doesn’t eliminate the need for painkillers. I knew — both from talking to people with experience and plain old common sense — that the business would be the most challenging thing I’d ever done, job-wise. I was also told that the root canal would hurt. I still needed Percocet for the tooth … and sometimes I wish I could have it for the business too. Of course, there are joys to having a jewelry business. I love it when customers tell me that the earrings they bought from me online are even better than they expected; that their new necklace is their favorite jewelry ever; or that they can’t take their eyes off their custom-made engagement ring. Redesigning old jewelry is especially rewarding. It’s fun to convert an unworn cocktail ring into three streamlined stacking rings or give a lone stud earring new life as a pendant . My job even helped me make the most of my root canal: I engraved my gold crown with my initials . The ache the business gives me — in a place where molars don’t grow — comes from a classic small-business conundrum: the high cost of producing low quantity. You might think that problem is unique to my luxury jewelry line, where a one-of-a-kind 18K gold and diamond design can go for upwards of $20,000 and raw-material prices of metals have tripled since I launched in 2005 . But every small, self-financed businessperson I speak to — whether butcher, baker, candlestick maker, computer programmer, hair stylist, photographer or fashion designer — tells me the same story. The problem is the cost of labor. Even when you’re making goods out of inexpensive materials, you need to pay for labor. U.S. labor is expensive because, despite the ongoing recession, the U.S. has a high standard of living and a minimum hourly wage of $7.25. In countries without such a high standard of living, people will work for a dollar a day or less. That’s why manufacturing and other jobs — including customer-service phone lines, as many of us know — have moved overseas. Using inexpensive labor enables companies to sell goods or provide services at prices U.S. consumers are willing to pay. So why don’t I move my production overseas, especially when a ring that cost $40 to produce in New York City cost $4 in Asia (before last year’s surge in the price of silver)? Forget for the moment about quality issues and the idealistic wish to keep jobs in the U.S. I simply can’t afford to produce cheaply. Factories require bulk orders because they would go out of business selling one $4 ring at a time. A minimum requirement for me is 100 units of each ring style. If I start ordering 100 rings at a time, I need to find a way to sell them or I’m going to drown in inexpensive rings. Quantity orders from retailers aren’t easy to come by when you’re a start-up. As Annie Lin, who, with her sister Karen, had a U.S.-made contemporary women’s clothing line called AIRA from 2008 to 2011, tells me, getting the brand in front of customers was “the hardest part” because both boutiques and department stores “heavily relied on the ‘usual’ brands they often order from and leave a small budget for new designers.” Limited distribution means limited profit, which scares off the kind of deep-pocketed investors who would be able to finance mass production. Another Catch-22. Because I’ll try anything once, I did the 100-unit order with a few styles, just to see if an inexpensive piece would fly off the proverbial shelf. I sold 30 of one style — a large quantity for me — all to individual customers. I made $20 on each sale and 30 trips to the post office. I’d rather hold out for one big engagement ring that nets $5,000 than do that again. At least I developed a better understanding of factories’ requirements for large orders. My factory was giving me a break, really. A hundred units barely qualifies as mass production. Walmart is the gold standard of huge orders: A 2005 Wall Street Journal series identified a small order of pens for Walmart as 48,000 units. Designers like me and the Lin sisters persist as long as we can, praying we’ll have that “lightning in a bottle” moment: the right celebrity, the right store, the right press. Sometimes the money runs out before the moment comes. The AIRA line, which retailed from $180 to $550, was in seven boutiques but just breaking even when the Lins pulled the plug. Annie says, “In retrospect, if we did not find a celebrity to wear our clothing or somehow lower our price point … we were looking at six or more years before seeing profit.” Maybe a design award will give me the push I need: I’m a finalist for Fashion Group International’s Rising Star Award for jewelry (the awards will be announced on Thursday, January 26). My friend, designer Stacy Lomman , is also in an optimistic state of mind because she is a finalist for the Rising Star Award in women’s wear after just 18 months in business. Financially, however, not much has changed for Stacy since 2010, when she was interviewed by the Huffington Post about her use of social media to finance her first runway show. Now preparing for her fourth show, she is conducting yet another campaign on the Kickstarter “crowdfunding” site to raise money to buy fabric for the 10 to 12 looks she’ll sew singlehandedly. Being a Rising Star finalist means “I’ve proven that I am someone to watch,” she says. A win could help her “secure some type of corporate sponsorship in order to take my business to the next level.” Here’s hoping that finding that financial backing isn’t like pulling teeth.

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Daniel Tutt: An Occupy Prayer Breakfast: There Is Enough For Everyone!

January 24, 2012

Each year, the wealthy and powerful gather in Washington, D.C. for the National Prayer Breakfast, an invitation-only, $650-a-plate, networking opportunity started by a secretive conservative group called ” The Family .” The goal of the breakfast, according to The Family, is to recruit the powerful attendees into smaller, more frequent prayer meetings, where they can “meet Jesus man to man.” Since its inception in 1953, every president has attended this annual event, and major military, corporate and faith leaders go each year. But this year, on the second Thursday of February, as the 1% comes together to network and pray, an alternative, ” People’s Prayer Breakfast ” will commence across town at Church of the Pilgrims. Organized by a broad network of faith leaders, faith-based social justice advocates, members of the Occupy movement at K Street and Freedom Plaza, the gathering will issue a challenge to President Obama and all the participants at the National Prayer Breakfast to focus their conversations and prayers on the suffering of the 99%. Not since the raising of the Golden Calf during the early Occupy Wall Street protests several months ago have faith communities taken a visible role in the Occupy movement. The People’s Prayer Breakfast offers an opportunity to raise media visibility for the Occupy movement nationally, as well as unite mainline religious communities with Occupy’s concern for the poor and economic justice. Participants will reflect, pray, and draw attention to the suffering and marginalization of millions of U.S. citizens languishing in economic distress, uncertainty and poverty. The People’s Prayer Breakfast’s motto, “Enough for Everyone!” rings true to the majority of Americans according to a new report on economic inequalities in America released by the University of California at Santa Cruz. Researchers found that Americans are more egalitarian than we typically think, and are very concerned with unequal wealth distribution. A majority of Americans claim that a more ideal wealth distribution would be one in which the top 20 percent owned between 30 and 40 percent of the privately held wealth, which is a far cry from the 85 percent that the top 20 percent actually own. In what many have criticized as a leaderless revolution , religious leaders and communities of faith offer an established leadership structure to Occupy. The leaders and organizers of the People’s Prayer Breakfast hope to expand this model outside of Washington, D.C., similar to how the National Prayer Breakfast has expanded to dozens of cities nationwide. Rev. Brian Merritt, one of the founding members of Occupy Faith DC is participating in the alternative prayer breakfast, “because prayer is a sacred act that connects us to something greater than ourselves and moves us to action in transforming the world.” Rev. Merritt, a Pastor in the Palisades Community Church will join dozens of other national faith leaders in declaring that, “prayer is not about bringing people into access to powerful people and giving the wealthy assurance that they should remain untroubled by those who hunger, cry, struggle and are left out by their actions.” The People’s Prayer Breakfast will also gather and display hundreds of prayers from children around Washington, D.C. during the morning program. Faith leaders from around the country will be in attendance and endorsements from Dr. Cornel West and other nationally recognized faith leaders have already come in.

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Romney Booed For Waffling On Releasing Tax Returns

January 20, 2012

CNN debate moderator John King put all the GOP presidential candidates on the spot about their tax returns Thursday night, asking whether they will make their filings public. It was an easy question for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who released his returns just as the debate began. Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) said he hadn’t given the issue much thought and didn’t have any intention of doing so. “I’d probably be embarrassed to put my financial statement up against their income,” Paul said, referring to the wealth of the other candidates. “I don’t want to be embarrassed because i don’t have a greater income. Now, I mean, it may come to that. But right now, I have no intention of doing that.” He added that he has no conflicts of interest, doesn’t talk to lobbyists and doesn’t “take that kind of money.” Romney, who has faced the most pressure on this topic, said he will release his tax returns in April, if he’s the nominee, and would “probably” release his returns from other years as well. He quickly tried to change the topic, saying Democrats simply wanted to attack people for “being successful.” “And I have been successful,” he added before hitting President Obama for playing “90 rounds of golf” while Americans are struggling in the tough economy. King pointed out that Republicans are often calling on Romney to release his tax filings. “Why not, should the people of South Carolina, before this election, see last year’s return?” asked King to applause from the audience. “Because I want to make sure that I beat President Obama,” replied Romney. “Every time we release things drip by drip, the Democrats go out with another array of attacks. As has been done in the past, I’ll put these out at one time so we have one discussion of all of this. I obviously pay all full taxes. I’m honest in my dealings with people. People understand that. My taxes are carefully managed. I pay a lot of taxes. I’ve been very successful. When I have our taxes ready for this year, I’ll release them.” Romney recently revealed that his effective tax rate is 15 percent , below the rate paid by many middle-class families . Gingrich did not directly attack Romney, saying, “Look, he’s got to decide. The people of South Carolina have to decide. If there’s anything in there that will help us lose the election, we should know it before the nomination.” Santorum said he does his own taxes. “They’re on my computer and I’m not home,” he said. “And there’s nobody at home right now until I get home. When I get home, you’ll get my taxes.” Finally, Romney refused to commit to the transparency and disclosure of his father, George Romney, who was governor of Michigan. In 1967, the elder Romney released his tax returns for 12 years. “Maybe. I don’t know how many years I’ll release,” responded Mitt Romney when asked if he’d follow in his father’s footsteps. “I’ll take a look at what our documents are.” The audience booed him. “I’m not going to apologize for being successful,” he added. “I’m not suggesting these people are doing that. But I know the Democrats will go after me on that basis. That’s why I want to release these things all at the same time. My dad, as you know, born in Mexico, poor, didn’t get a college degree, became head of a car company. I could have stayed in Detroit like him and gotten pulled up in the car — I went off on my own. I didn’t inherit money from my parents. What I have, I earned. I worked hard. The American way.”

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More IKEA Workers Vote To Unionize In U.S.

January 19, 2012

WASHINGTON — Officials with the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) union announced Thursday that more than 350 workers at an IKEA distribution center in Maryland have voted to join the union. If the vote is certified by the federal labor board, the workers in Perryville, Md., will become the second American IKEA workforce to join the IAM’s ranks. The first group, which is employed by the IKEA-owned Swedwood Group at a furniture factory in Danville, Va., voted overwhelmingly over the summer to join the union, a move that American labor activists considered a high-profile victory. “I think they saw what happened in Danville and saw the deal we were able to negotiate there,” Rick Sloan, an IAM spokesman, said of the Maryland employees. “It certainly helped.” When the L.A. Times ran a story on the Virginia factory last April, the disgruntlement of some of the workers there shocked readers in the U.S. and abroad, given the furniture retailer’s cultish following among consumers and generally solid reputation among employees. The company was criticized for an apparent double standard: While it was progressive and union-friendly in Europe, it did not show American workers the same kind of respect, critics said. “IKEA is a very strong brand and they lean on some kind of good Swedishness in their business profile. That becomes a complication when they act like they do in the United States,” a Swedish union official told the paper . “For us, it’s a huge problem.” According to IAM official John Carr, who recently visited the Maryland site, the same workplace issues raised by employees in Virginia had cropped up in Maryland. In particular, workers wanted more of a hand in the scheduling, vacation and seniority systems. “These are things that are important in any place if you want to make a future and a career out of it,” Carr said. The National Labor Relations Board is expected to certify the vote within 10 days, Carr said. If it does, the union and the company will begin contract negotiations. IKEA could not immediately be reached for comment.

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EPA To Start Sending Water To Town With Tainted Wells

January 19, 2012

ALLENTOWN, Pa. — The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced Thursday that it will deliver fresh water to four homes in a northeastern Pennsylvania village where residential water wells were tainted by a gas driller. The agency also said it will begin testing the water supplies of dozens more homes as it ramps up its investigation more than three years after homeowners say the water supply was ruined. Capping a tumultuous two weeks in which EPA first promised the residents a tanker of water – and then quickly backed away, saying more study was needed – federal environmental regulators said they have concluded that contaminant levels in four of the homes pose a health hazard and require emergency action. Some of the water samples, the agency said, were found to be polluted with cancer-causing arsenic and synthetic chemicals typically found in drilling fluids. The first delivery of water is scheduled for Friday. “I can’t even tell you, again, what a relief this is. because that’s all we’ve asked for – water,” said Julie Sautner, one of the homeowners. Additionally, EPA said it will sample water at 61 homes in the area of Carter and Meshoppen roads “to assess further whether any residents are being exposed to hazardous substances that cause health concerns.” The testing, to be carried out over the next several weeks, marks a significant expansion of the agency’s probe in Dimock, a tiny crossroads at the center of a national debate over gas drilling and the extraction technique known as hydraulic fracturing, or fracking. More than a dozen homeowners in Dimock say they have been without a reliable supply of clean water since Cabot Oil & Gas Corp., the Houston-based drilling firm blamed for polluting their aquifer, won permission from state regulators to halt daily deliveries on Nov. 30. After analyzing sampling data provided by Cabot, the residents, and the state Department of Environmental Protection, EPA said hazardous substances were found in the water wells of several homes. But only in four homes were they in high enough concentrations to present a health threat, the agency said. EPA said it might provide water to additional homes, or stop delivering water altogether, depending on the results of its own testing, “EPA is working diligently to understand the situation in Dimock and address residents’ concerns,” EPA Regional Administrator Shawn M. Garvin said in a statement. “We believe that the information provided to us by the residents deserves further review, and conducting our own sampling will help us fill information gaps. Our actions will be based on the science and the law and we will work to help get a more complete picture of water quality for these homes in Dimock.” EPA said the federal Superfund program – the environmental fund used to clean up abandoned hazardous waste sites – authorized it to take emergency action in Dimock. It’s not clear how many wells in Dimock were affected by the drilling, which began in 2008. The state has found that at least 18 residential water wells were fouled by stray methane gas from Cabot’s drilling operation, although EPA said Thursday that its own door-to-door survey turned up 20 water wells on those same parcels. Cabot, which was banned in 2010 from drilling in a 9-square-mile area around the village, took legal responsibility for the methane found in the wells, but contends that water wells in the area were tainted with the gas long before the company arrived. The company also says it met a state deadline to restore or replace Dimock’s water supply, installing treatment systems in some houses that have removed the methane. But 11 homeowners who are suing Cabot say their aquifer is still tainted with methane and also with toxic chemicals that are used in fracking, a technique in which water, sand and chemicals are blasted deep underground to free natural gas from dense rock deposits like the Marcellus Shale found in Pennsylvania and surrounding states. Cabot denies responsibility for the presence of any chemicals found in the wells. EPA said the sampling data it reviewed turned up hazardous levels of substances including: _arsenic, a cancer-causing element that may be present in elevated concentrations due to drilling; _barium, a silvery-white metal and a common constituent in drilling fluids that can damage the kidneys with extended exposure. _DEHP, a chemical added to plastics to make them flexible, a probable human carcinogen; also used in drilling; _glycols, including ethylene glycol, an antifreeze commonly found in drilling fluids; _manganese, a naturally occurring substance that is sometimes used in drilling fluids and can damage the central nervous system if ingested. EPA’s decision to intervene in Dimock is unlikely to sit well with Pennsylvania’s environmental chief, Michael Krancer, who has accused the EPA of having only a “rudimentary” understanding of the situation there. Krancer, a frequent EPA critic who serves under pro-drilling GOP Gov. Tom Corbett, urged Garvin in a letter released publicly last week to allow any EPA probe to “be guided by sound science and the law instead of emotion and publicity.” DEP spokeswoman Katy Gresh said after the EPA announcement Thursday that “EPA does not seem to have presented any new data here. More than a year ago, DEP’s enforcement action addressed this issue and ensured funds were set aside to resolve the water quality issues for these homeowners.” She said DEP agrees that additional sampling is necessary in Dimock and is working with its federal counterpart. Cabot rejected EPA’s characterization of the sampling data and insisted that Dimock’s drinking water meets federal standards. “Cabot believes that the US EPA has a flawed interpretation of the data and has taken it out of context; this has resulted in an unwarranted investigation by US EPA regarding water quality. PADEP has extensively investigated alleged groundwater concerns in the Dimock area and concluded, using sound science, that it was safe,” Cabot spokesman George Stark said in a statement.

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PHOTO: Jay-Z Hangs Out With Warren Buffett

January 19, 2012

Here’s a question: who pays the tab when these two hang out? Jay-Z reopened his 40/40 club in New York City on Wednesday , and joining him at the hot event was billionaire investor and philanthropist Warren Buffett. The two are friends, having traded appearances in cartoons and magazine interviews, and clearly were enjoying themselves, joking like the global icons they are. Hard to say what they were talking about; maybe it was the finer points of fatherhood, or perhaps their willingness to pay more in taxes . PHOTO (courtesy Tom Murro):

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FUZZY MATH: Exxon Says Yellowstone Spill Involved More Oil

January 19, 2012

BILLINGS, Mont. — Exxon Mobil says 1,509 barrels of oil spilled into the Yellowstone River during a pipeline break in Montana last summer – an increase of more than 500 barrels over the company’s earlier estimates. Spokesman Alan Jeffers said Thursday the company recalculated the volume after discovering the pipeline was completely severed during the July 1 accident near Laurel. Jeffers says pipeline breaches typically involve a crack or fissure. That was the assumption used to craft the initial estimate. The company has estimated costs related to the spill of $135 million. More than 1,000 Exxon Mobil contractors were involved in the cleanup effort. Only about 10 barrels of crude were recovered – less than 1 percent of the total spilled.

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Ron Ashkenas: Stop Bashing HR

January 19, 2012

Especially today , recruitment, retention, and development of human capital is a critical success factor for almost any organization. Yet the area charged with helping line managers leverage their human capital — Human Resources — is often regarded with outright disdain . Just look at a few of the comments readers made in response to a recent (and thoughtful) HBR post by Brian Hults from Newell Rubbermaid called Why HR Really Does Add Value : “I have yet to see HR add value to any organization.” “[HR] is more often an obstacle that needs to be navigated to complete real business processes.” “The fact that the author essentially advocates turning HR into something that would be called ‘strategic planning and integration’ is exhibit A as to the complete uselessness of HR…” These comments are not unusual. In many organizations, HR is perceived as inefficient, ineffective, overly bureaucratic, and incapable of contributing to results — despite the fact that its role is absolutely critical. So what’s going on? One possibility is that the criticisms could be true. Some organizations do have weak HR functions that mostly perform transactional work that doesn’t add unique value. But in my experience, and that of consultants working with dozens of firms, this level of HR incompetence is rare. The more likely reason is that people have negative experiences with transitioning HR functions. This can happen in two ways: On one front, corporations are spending millions of dollars on systems (e.g. PeopleSoft, SAP, Workday) to streamline basic HR transactions and improve HR information. Putting these new processes in place takes time, not to mention major shifts in roles and responsibilities; and it rarely goes smoothly. Simultaneously, these same firms are trying to strengthen the more strategic and consultative roles of HR — such as talent assessment, leadership development, change management, and organization effectiveness. But this also takes time, both to develop people and to build the processes necessary for them to be effective. Jeff Shuman, who heads HR and Administration for the Harris Corporation, one company that values HR as a strategic business partner, explains what it takes to get through this transition: “Five years ago, managers wanted HR to do all the employment — and talent-related work. We had to push back and make it clear that managers were accountable too for their people and that HR was there to take an enterprise-wide approach, guide, and provide tools, but not do everything employment-related for them. We then invested in technology to help managers do the basic transactions, focus the HR generalists’ role, and grew our skills in OD, leadership development, and talent. Now managers have most of the HR components they need on their desktops — employee assessments, development plans, reward and recognition reminders, and things like that. That has freed up our HR staff to help managers solve more strategic problems, identify elephants in the room, look at the human capital implications of business strategies, and challenge them to assign the best people on the most critical assignments. This took a strategic approach, and it didn’t happen overnight.” So HR’s evolution — like the one that Shuman spearheaded at Harris — does not just concern changing HR. It’s also about helping managers take more accountability for people and culture, and eventually blurring the rigid distinction between “HR” and “management.” In fact one of the key contributors to success at Harris was much greater rotation of people between HR and the line organizations. This has created an environment where there is less “HR-talk” since managers and HR people have common perspectives and language. Given the human capital challenges facing almost every organization, perhaps it’s time to ease off the HR-bashing. Instead, let’s figure out what it will take to accelerate the transition that most HR functions truly want to make, and how line managers can make the journey with them, side by side. What’s your experience with the evolution of HR? Cross-posted from Harvard Business Online .

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Family Business Made It Big With Guardian Angel’s Help

January 19, 2012

CHICAGO — When Steve Koch moved to Chicago after graduating from the University of Nebraska’s design school, he had little more to his name than a r&eacutesum&eacute, a roll of quarters and a dream of running his own family business. He dove headfirst into the city’s bustling, albeit exclusive industry of furniture design and craftsmanship. Luckily for Koch, he also crossed paths with a wealthy philanthropist who was inspired by his work. Their friendship developed into a partnership that allowed Koch to build his company his way. Now a nationally recognized high-end design firm, one of the few with a team of artisans and specialists who handcraft their pieces, Tru Furniture represents a true Chicago success story. And Koch is working side by side with his son. How did you get started in this business? How long have you been making furniture? I’ve been in the business now for about 26 years. For 21 years we’ve been on our own. We got started thanks to the most wonderful, wonderful person, a philanthropist who prefers we not name her, but who’s a landmark herself as a Chicagoan. We were working on her home up in Winnetka, and just in passing she said, “If I could ever help you out someday, it’s been a pleasure working with you. Let’s get together, and I can help you out.” And you know, being 27 years old at the time, I said, “OK, thanks,” and went on my way. A couple of months after that, a light bulb went off over my head, and I thought I’d see if she remembered who I was and maybe take her up on her offer. So we made some prototypes, brought them over. We drove up to Winnetka in a van that had one window knocked out and no hubcaps. We were the epitome of a real start-up. We had absolutely no money at all. So we approached her; she liked our enthusiasm and loved the product that we had. She backed us 100 percent, with every penny that it took to get us going. So we had to learn how to run a business right from the start, hit the ground running, and she’s the one that gave us our start. Everything from there was built upon that. So after those three start-up years, how did the company grow? In our experience, it seems like there’s always one or two people who make a real huge difference. In addition to our donor, we were also really lucky for John Riccitiello and his wife. He had just moved to Chicago. At the time he was the youngest CEO of Wilson [Sporting Goods]. We were just getting by, and they came in the door and had us do their entire apartment up on Cedar Street. It was a wonderful place, and it gave us an opportunity to design about 15 to 20 pieces. That was probably one of the largest jobs we had at the time. That started putting us on the map. And after that project, we kind of never looked back. It just kept on growing from there. We always ran our company with the attitude that we wanted to do such a nice job for our clients and have everything be so perfect and wonderful for them that they’d be more than happy to pass our name along to their friends. And if we can’t help someone, we’re always more than happy to help connect them with someone who can, which is easy in Chicago. I think one of the things that isn’t known is that Chicago is probably one of the best places in the country where furniture is manufactured, and some of the best furniture in the entire country is all made here. Where can people see your work in place? Well, in Chicago, most of our work is in residences. We have products inside some of the hotels where we’ve done some lobby work. We did the spa at the Fairmont Hotel. But in Chicago we’re really known for our custom work, working directly with architects, clients and designers. That’s something that’s really exciting about our business. It’s not so much the really large projects that you would think, like the hotels, that are the interesting ones. It’s really the executive homes and some of the residences that you get to walk into that are unbelievably beautiful. To see our more notable projects … well, if you’re ever invited to the private owners level at the Dallas Cowboys Stadium, we did all the work for Jerry Jones’ wife. And the Playboy Casino in Las Vegas , we fabricated all the pieces there and the restaurant below it, Nove. That was probably my favorite project because there were a lot of things that were out of the ordinary. You know, seven-foot-tall wingback sofas, unusual fabrics like zebra, and a lot of alligator and rattlesnake. We also do a lot of work for Hyatt across the country, so there’s a lot of lobby work that you can see. Why is your business based in Chicago? Was it incidental, or did the industry draw you here? I first came to Chicago shortly after graduating from the University of Nebraska with a roll of quarters in my pocket and started making phone calls trying to kick off my career. My wife, Mary, and I had a young son, Drew, and Mary wanted to move closer to her family near here. So, with Chicago being the biggest city around, we decided this was the place to come to. All I had starting out was a r&eacutesum&eacute, a small portfolio of the work I’d done two years before that and a $25 roll of quarters, and [I] just started cold-calling designers, offering to work for them and asking them to take me on as an apprentice. I feel lucky that I landed here. Chicago is interesting for designers, specifically furniture designers, because I think it’s a well-kept secret what happens here. I don’t think anybody realizes how much is really made here. The building that we’re in right now houses different manufacturers and woodworkers. … The shop that we use is about 65,000 square feet right now, which has grown during the downturn in the economy, which is just amazing. What’s your team like? It’s all old-school, start to finish. It’s hand-tied springs. The frames are all cut by hand from handmade templates. It’s great that a lot of the guys come into our shop young, without experience in the business before, and we’re actually able to train them on what we consider to be the perfect way to fabricate a piece of furniture. Our manufacturing end is headed up by one of my best friends, Anees Jaber. Much like me, he kind of left his previous job with little more than a compressor and sawhorse and the same dream that we all had. Every person in the shop is like family. We know them all by name, and we have a great relationship. What’s your relationship like with your donor now? Does she still have a hand in the business? After about four years of working together, she kind of sent us on our way. We had a great working relationship together — we still do. She knew that she played an integral part in getting us up and going, and it came to a point where she was like, “All right, you boys are on your own.” It was kind of like leaving the nest. The help we got from her, there was no way to measure how you could pay it back. I mean, financially we paid her back, but mentally, how can you pay somebody back for giving you a chance at something that was your dream? It’s not too often that you get to fulfill something like that. There’s nothing I could ever do or say or make, anything, that could pay her back for what she did for us. We’ve done some work for her since; we built and donated all the furniture in the headquarters of a charity she’s actively involved in. She has so much going on that I’m sure in the big picture, in the big scope of her world, it was surely just one of many kind gestures. To me, it seems like the biggest thing that’s ever happened to me. It’s a relationship that’s hard to describe. When someone gives you a dream … it’s hard to describe.

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Sen. Ron Wyden: My Letter to the Internet

January 18, 2012

Dear Friends: Today, thousands of websites have chosen to voluntarily go offline or modify their home pages with public service information. Some have called this a stunt. I say it’s a brave and poignant reminder that we can’t take the Internet for granted. The Internet has become an integral part of everyday life precisely because it has been an open-to-all land of opportunity where entrepreneurs, thinkers and innovators are free to try, fail and then try again. The Internet has changed the way we communicate with each other, the way we learn about the world and the way we conduct business. It has done this by eliminating the tollgates, middle men, and other barriers to entry that have so often predetermined winners and losers in the marketplace. It has created a world where ideas, products and creative expression have an opportunity regardless of who offers them or where they originate. Protect IP (PIPA) and the Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) are a step towards a different kind of Internet. They are a step towards an Internet in which those with money and lawyers and access to power have a greater voice than those who don’t. They are a step towards an Internet in which online innovators need lawyers as much or more than they need good ideas. And they are a step towards a world in which Americans have less of a voice to argue for a free and open Internet around the world. Proponents of these bills say these arguments are overblown, but I say any step towards an Internet in which one person’s voice counts more than another is a step in the wrong direction. These are bills that should give us pause. These are bills that should be studied and debated. Congress should consult experts and consider alternatives and make 100% sure that any step it takes to police the Internet doesn’t change the Internet as we know it. This is why I put a hold on the Protect IP Act and its predecessor over a year ago and introduced a bipartisan alternative last month. The Senate, however, has scheduled a vote for Tuesday, January 24 at 2:15 PM to override my hold and move the Protect IP Act towards passage. This will be the deciding vote that determines whether PIPA and SOPA move through the Congress or are turned back for more sober discussion. We are up against a group of the biggest, most powerful, well-funded and well-organized interest groups in Washington. No one thought millions of Internet users would speak up or that those voices could overcome the power of these interests. Today you showed that the Internet is not just a platform for ideas, commerce, and expression, but also for political action that will defend those principles. Your voices must continue to be heard. Thank you for standing up for what’s important, for continuing to speak out and for demonstrating that we should always stand up for what we think is right regardless of the odds. This is an opportunity to reshape the way Washington operates, not just responding to narrow interests but hearing the voices of millions of Americans whose rights and livilihoods are affected by our actions. Sincerely, Ron Wyden United States Senator

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Unemployed, Out Of School Youth A Huge Cost To Taxpayers

January 18, 2012

A sizable minority of America’s youth aren’t in school or attached to the labor force. And it’s costing taxpayers big. About 17 percent of America’s young people are “opportunity youth” — or people ages 16-24 who aren’t attached to the labor force — according to a report prepared by researchers for the Corporation for National and Community Service and the White House Council for Community Solutions (h/t Think Progress ). Each one of these 6.7 million young people is costing taxpayers $13,900 per year and it doesn’t stop there. After 25 years old, they’ll cost taxpayers $170,740 over their lifetime, the report found. That means that in total, those currently classified as so-called opportunity youth will cost taxpayers $1.56 trillion in present value terms over their whole lifetime. “Both taxpayers and society lose out when the potential of these youth is not realized,” the report said . With the unemployment rate at elevated levels for months , young people have been feeling the consequences. Mike Konczal, a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, found in November that youth joblessness in America was in line with levels of youth unemployment during the Arab Spring. Teenage job-seekers are having an especially tough time as older, more experienced workers snap up part-time positions usually reserved for teens in a better economy. The unemployment rate for Americans ages 16-19 was 25 percent in 2011 — nearly three times the jobless rate of the overall labor force. During the summer, a time of typically high employment for youth, the unemployment rate for Americans aged 16 to 24 was twice as high as the national jobless rate . The high levels of out-of-work young people will likely have long-term implications , including a boost in poverty, increased reliance on social safety net programs and maybe even illegal activities, according to researchers at Rutgers University. But prospects for unemployed youth may be getting brighter. Nearly two-thirds of the jobs employers added between August and October went to Americans between the ages of 16 and 24.

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Report: Proposed Down Payment Rules Could Limit Minorities’ Access to Affordable Homebuying

January 18, 2012

Nearly three-quarters of African-American and Latino mortgage borrowers could be excluded from affordable homeownership if federal regulators approve a proposal to require 20 percent down payments, according to a study released Wednesday. Co-authored by the UNC Center for Community Capital and the Center for Responsible Lending, the study says that such a move would not only restrict minorities’ access to homeownership but also that of roughly 60 percent of all creditworthy borrowers. The proposal is part of a host of new regulations under consideration through the Dodd-Frank Act, legislation passed in the wake of the financial crisis. Policymakers have been tasked with developing new guidelines for the mortgage market to avoid a repeat of the easy lending environment that led so many Americans to take out bigger mortgages than they could afford — often with no money down. While no one is asking to return to the days of easy money, the study cautioned that the pendulum might now be swinging too far in the other direction, tightening lending requirements too much. Many housing experts say that 10 percent is a more reasonable down payment requirement. Federal regulators are still working out the proposed policy. “If you’re requiring homebuyers to actually save a 20 percent down payment in advance of buying the home, it would take decades for many families to amass that kind of money even though they could still afford to make those monthly mortgage payments,” said Ginna Green, a spokeswoman for the Center for Responsible Lending. Though borrowers from all walks of life would be impacted by such a policy, minorities would be disproportionately affected because they have, on average, lower incomes than their white counterparts, according to Green. “African-Americans, Latinos, teachers, firefighters, anyone who is working-class and having trouble making headway in this economy will have even more trouble if these guidelines were to come to fruition,” Green said. “It’s like the pendulum has swung from one side to the other in the housing market. On one end, minorities got the riskiest loans, and now, on the other end, minorities are going to bear the brunt of these onerous down payment requirements.” In the report, the researchers found that increasing down payment requirements does produce a reciprocal decrease in the number of borrowers who default on their mortgage loan. Specifically, for loans that meet the government’s proposed guidelines, the default rate was 7.1 percent as compared with rates of nearly 10 percent on loans sold to the Federal Housing Administration, which has a down payment requirement of 3.5 percent. Nonetheless, the researchers concluded that the benefit of lowered default rates — which, in turn, produce lower foreclosure rates — is overshadowed by borrowers’ restricted access to affordable mortgage loans. Some prominent economists disagreed with the report’s finding, including Dean Baker, co-director for the Center for Economic and Policy Research. “I know of almost no planet where a slight increase in the cost of getting a mortgage will shut out 60 percent of creditworthy borrowers. On my planet, we just had a horrible housing bubble burst and wreck the economy for a decade in large part because banks were able to pass on junk mortgages at no risk. This is an incredibly modest provision that will have no impact on creditworthy borrowers.” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, was more moderate in his dissent. “I think a down payment requirement of 20 percent is too high. I’d like to see more like 10 percent,” he said. Nonetheless, Zandi believes the government should determine the requirements. “The very important thing to remember here is that when policymakers figure out what the future of mortgage finance looks like, it’s very likely that the government will only be able to play a role with loans that meet these requirements,” he said. “With a 20 percent down payment, only one-third of loans would fall under their guidance,” Zandi said. “But if you lower the down payment requirements, the government could oversee closer to two-thirds of the loans, which is where I’d like to see them be.” UPDATE: 5:42 p.m. — Not all borrowers would be required to make a 20 percent down payment, under the proposal. Rather lenders could still offer loans with lower down payments if the bank held onto at least 5 percent of the credit risk (the dollar calculation of the chance the borrower will not pay back the loan). This is likely to increase the interest rate charged to the borrower.

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Overdraft Fees Reach A New High

January 18, 2012

The cost of not having enough money just got steeper. The median overdraft fee banks charge customers surged to $30 from $27.50 last year, according to a study released Tuesday by Moebs Services , an economic research firm that tracks pricing at financial services companies. The survey looked at overdraft fees from more than 2,500 banks and credit unions of all sizes across the country. Mike Moebs, an economist and CEO of Moebs Services , said the jump was the largest one he has seen in 30 years of collecting data. He said that banks are trying to make up for money lost due to regulatory changes. “We went to banks themselves, and first thing they told us was that the regulatory cost is so onerous they have to offset it with higher fees,” Moebs said. Credit unions had not increased their fees, he added. Until new regulations were put in place in July 2010, banks enrolled debit card users automatically into overdraft protection, which provides short-term loans when a bank account falls below zero. Often, bank customers were unaware their accounts were in negative territory and kept using their debit cards. Fees quickly piled up — in 2009 banks cleared an all-time high of $37.1 billion in overdraft fees, according to Moebs. A 2010 rule enacted by the Federal Reserve called Reg E requires customers to actively choose to enroll in overdraft protection. Those who do not opt into the program learn when they are over their limit on funds the old-fashioned way: Their card is declined. The regulation has cost banks billions . Last year, banks made “just” $30 billion from overdraft protection. Nearly half of the drop came from decreases at Bank of America, which lost an estimated $3.3 billion in the first year under the regulation, according to research from a Credit Suisse analyst published last month. Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase each lost more than $1 billion. Losses may get steeper. More recently, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation issued guidelines around what types of transactions can trigger overdraft fees and how the banks process transactions. The FDIC recommends, for example, that banks do not charge overdrafts on small-ticket items, so a card holder who overdrafts his or her checking account for a $4 latte won’t be on the hook for a $30 fee. Banks have also seen a drop-off in the amount of money they make from debit card swipe fees, which merchants pay every time a customer makes a purchase . The so-called Durbin Amendment, part of the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul, caps the amount banks can charge merchants for debit swipes. Banks have been scrambling to make up for the decline in revenue. In addition to raising overdraft protection fees, banks are also making a push to get customers using credit cards more often. And it’s worked, in the last week JPMorgan Chase and Citibank reported that credit cards are a growing area of business.

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The Cost Of The NATO, G8 Summits

January 17, 2012

When President Obama announced that Chicago would be the first U.S. city outside of Washington, D.C. to ever host a NATO summit , Mayor Rahm Emanuel said this was Chicago’s chance to “showcase what is great about the greatest city in the greatest country.” But some residents are questioning whether hosting the NATO and G8 summits will be worth the cost to the city — and they aren’t just talking about money. The summits, which will be held May 19 through 21 at Chicago’s McCormick Place, will cost between $40 million and $65 million. The city claims those costs will be covered by private donors and federal funds , the Chicago Sun-Times reported last week, somewhat apprehensively: The guarantee that Chicago taxpayers will not be left holding the bag is a familiar one. After repeatedly insisting that he would never put a blank check behind Chicago’s failed 2016 Olympic bid, Daley offered to sign a host-city contract that amounted to an open-ended guarantee from local taxpayers. But, the Emanuel administration insisted Thursday, “That was a guarantee — not cash out of pocket. No such guarantee is required” for the NATO and G-8 summits. University of Chicago Economist Allen Sanderson told CBS Chicago Tuesday that even with private funds and federal help, the summit could be a “potential disaster.” “Again, I hope it’s not. I hope things go really well and the city gets a real positive spin from it, but if you were betting in Las Vegas, you’d bet that’s not going to be the outcome,” Sanderson told the station, adding that battles between police and protesters could once again tarnish the city’s reputation. Already, protesters are fired up over rules in a proposed ordinance that would have cracked down on activists who resist arrest or obstruct officers. The city has since removed those fine increases and other controversial measures from the ordinance. Ald. Ameya Pawar (47th), however, told the Chicago Sun-Times that some of his constituents are afraid the summits will lead to the violent clashes that came to define the 1968 Democratic National Convention . “They’re worried. What people are saying is, ‘Let’s not put laws in place that look like they’re trying to limit protests. That’s gonna inflame people,’” he said. Meanwhile, Mayor Emanuel and the city’s aldermen faced criticism from unions who have been fighting the mayor over budget cuts and layoffs. AFSCME Executive Director Henry Bayer, who received a letter asking his members to give up their raises to keep city libraries open six days per week , wondered to WLS-AM radio why private funding couldn’t be found for city libraries . The majority of city libraries were closed last Monday after the union representing city librarians could not reach an agreement with the mayor’s office on cuts to the system. “Library services are much more important to Chicago’s neighborhoods than bringing the G-8 to the city,” Bayer told WLS. “If those people can afford to put up $45 million or $60 million, which is the city’s estimate, why isn’t he out there asking them, ‘Wouldn’t you be willing to pay a little bit more — just a fraction of that $60 million — which could be used to keep the libraries open’”?

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S.C. Supreme Court To Hear Carnival Cruise Case

January 17, 2012

CHARLESTON, S.C. — The South Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to hear complaints brought by local residents, preservationists and an environmental group over Charleston’s expanded cruise industry. A lawsuit filed last year against Carnival Cruise Lines alleges, among other things, that the company’s vessels are a public nuisance in this historic city, that they amount to illegal hotel operations and that the liner’s signature red, white and blue smokestacks violate city sign ordinances. The court has agreed to hear the case without it first going to a lower one. No date for arguments has been set. The plaintiffs include Charleston residents, the South Carolina Coastal Conservation League and the Preservation Society of Charleston. After the suit was filed, the city and the State Ports Authority intervened on the side of Carnival. They asked the Supreme Court to take immediate jurisdiction saying the lawsuit threatens the maritime commerce making it a matter of statewide public interest. The plaintiffs said a lower court should hear the matter first. They said the complaint applies only to Carnival and that other maritime operations don’t infringe on the quality of life in quiet historic neighborhoods. They also said it’s a zoning matter similar to those heard routinely by trial courts statewide. The lawsuit asks a judge to block cruise operations that “constitute a nuisance” and declare illegal the use of the Union Pier area for a terminal. That’s where the Ports Authority is planning a new $35 million cruise terminal. “Ultimately the case was going to make it to the Supreme Court one way or the other because of the significant issues involved,” said Frank Holleman, a senior attorney for the Southern Environmental Law Center representing the plaintiffs. “We thought it appropriate because it was a community and neighborhood-focused issue that it first be heard closer to the community and neighborhood involved. But we can understand, given the high-profile nature of the issue the Supreme Court decided otherwise,” he said. “The basic decision to be made by the court … is applying the language of the law – and here that is a series of zoning ordinances – to the facts as alleged.” The city and the Ports Authority said the case should be resolved quickly and “an expedited resolution has huge significance for all of the State’s ocean trade, not just for cruise ships.” While there have been seasonal cruises from Charleston for years, things changed in 2010 when Carnival permanently based its 2,056-passenger liner Fantasy here, creating a year-round industry. Charleston, which passed the nation’s first historic preservation ordinance more than 80 years ago, was warned by the National Trust for Historic Preservation last year that the growing industry threatens its historic character. Tourism is a $14 billion industry in South Carolina and 2010 study for the Ports Authority found cruises account for about $37 million of that. _____ Associated Press writer Meg Kinnard in Columbia, S.C., contributed to this story.

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White House Sends Message To Romney

January 17, 2012

WASHINGTON — The White House is suggesting GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney should release his tax returns, saying it’s “established tradition” for presidential candidates to do so. Responding to a question about Romney’s failure so far to release his returns, White House press secretary Jay Carney stopped short of directly calling on the former Massachusetts governor to make them public. But he noted that when Barack Obama was a presidential candidate he released multiple years of his returns. Carney said making tax records public has been a standard practice for presidential candidates, though it’s not a law. On Monday night, Romney said that while he might be willing to release his tax returns, he wouldn’t do so until tax filing time. Carney made his comments Tuesday at a White House press briefing.

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Rev. Jesse Jackson: South Carolina Shows How Far We Have to Go

January 17, 2012

The Republican presidential primary in South Carolina captures the news, but too little attention has been paid to the state itself. South Carolina reflects the triumph of Dr. Martin Luther King and the civil rights movement: Its schools are desegregated; its public facilities open to all, its economy benefits from foreign investment; its governor is a female Asian-American. But South Carolina also reflects the limits of that victory and the continuing reaction against it. South Carolina shows how far we have to go. Last month, the Justice Department, enforcing the Voting Rights Act, rejected as discriminatory South Carolina’s efforts to suppress the vote by requiring voters to show a driver’s license or other limited official forms of photo ID. Republicans are pushing these laws in states across the country. They claim they are needed to deter voting fraud, but offer no evidence of its existence. In fact, the laws will disproportionately impact African Americans, Latinos and poor people — who are less likely to have a driver’s license. In South Carolina, the DOJ concluded minority voters would be 20 percent more likely to be disenfranchised than white voters. Now, South Carolina plans to appeal the decision, seeking a Supreme Court decision overturning parts of the Voting Rights Act, Dr. King’s proudest triumph. An anti-union state, South Carolina adds to the “race to the bottom” by offering employers cheap captive prison labor. The largest dairy farm in the state will be in a prison. The state aggressively markets its Prison Industries program to private employers, offering to “lease” prisoners or allow businesses to open branches within prison gates. According to the state Department of Corrections, in one program, prisoners making desks and other office equipment for public agencies can make “a wage of up to 35 cents an hour.” In another program, the state negotiates with private customers, and prisoners earn from 35 cents to $1.80 an hour. And in the Prison Industry Enterprise Program, inmates produce goods for private employers ranging from apparel to cable wires. They are supposed to be paid the “prevailing wage,” and to not compete with private workers. They are allegedly paid from $5.15 to $10 per hour, but must pay for their “room and board,” and have up to 20 percent of their wages confiscated to repay their victims. The next time you attend a graduation, remember that the gowns worn by the graduates are likely to have been made by South Carolina prison labor. The main gown plant of Jostens, a Fortune 400 company that is the largest manufacturer of graduation gowns in the country, is in Laurens, about 25 miles from the Leath Correctional Facility, a 350-bed prison for women. According to Josh Levine in a 1999 Perspective magazine article, electronic-cable supplier Escod Industries abandoned plans for a facility in Mexico and moved to South Carolina. The wages of South Carolina prisoners undercut those of Mexican sweatshop workers, and the state offered to subsidize equipment and industrial space. South Carolina is a leader in this area, but not alone. The U.S. locks up more than 2 million people, more than any nation in the world. One in 48 working-age men is behind bars. A disproportionate number — 40 percent — are African Americans. As Michelle Alexander reported in her book, The New Jim Crow , more black men are in prison or jail, on probation or parole than were in slavery in the 1850s. The arc of history, Dr. King argued, is long but it bends towards justice. But as South Carolina illustrates, that bending requires constant struggle. We’ve come so far, but we’ve a long way to go.

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Occupy Baltimore Protesters Try To Erect Schoolhouse

January 17, 2012

Maryland State Police sought Monday evening to work out a peaceful solution with Occupy Baltimore protesters who were building an encampment at the site of a proposed juvenile detention center in East Baltimore.

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Romney Will ‘Probably’ Release Tax Returns

January 17, 2012

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney moved a step closer to releasing his tax returns during Monday’s debate, saying he would “probably” do it around April if he becomes the nominee. “I looked at what has been done in campaigns in the past with Sen. McCain and President George W. Bush and others,” he said. “They have tended to release tax records in April or tax season. I hadn’t planned on releasing tax records, because the law requires us to release all of our assets — all of the things we own — that I’ve already released. It’s a pretty full disclosure.” “But you know, if that’s been the tradition, I’m not opposed to doing that,” he added. “Time will tell. But I anticipate that most likely I am going to get asked to do that around the April time period and I’ll keep that open.” When asked again whether he was agreeing to release them, Romney replied, “I think I’ve heard enough from folks saying, ‘Look, let’s see your tax records.’ I have nothing in them that suggests there’s any problem, and I’m happy to do so. I sort of feel like we are showing a lot of exposure at this point. And if I become our nominee, and what’s happened in history is people have released them in about April of the coming year and that’s probably what I would do.” Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Rick Perry have all called on Romney to release his tax returns, as has former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin , who released her records.

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Perry Challenges Romney To Release Tax Returns

January 17, 2012

Rick Perry on Monday joined Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich in calling for Mitt Romney to release his tax returns quickly, so that voters can find out now if they have a “flawed candidate or not.” “We need for you to release your income tax,” Perry said at a GOP debate in Myrtle Beach, S.C. “We cannot fire our nominee in September. We need to know now.” Romney, given a chance to respond, at first didn’t address the issue. When pressed later, however, he moved a step closer, saying he would “probably” do it around April if he becomes the nominee. “I looked at what has been done in campaigns in the past with Sen. McCain and President George W. Bush and others,” he said. “They have tended to release tax records in April or tax season. I hadn’t planned on releasing tax records, because the law requires us to release all of our assets — all of the things we own — that I’ve already released. It’s a pretty full disclosure.” “But you know, if that’s been the tradition, I’m not opposed to doing that,” he added. “Time will tell. But I anticipate that most likely I am going to get asked to do that around the April time period and I’ll keep that open.” When asked again whether he was agreeing to release them, Romney replied, “I think I’ve heard enough from folks saying, ‘Look, let’s see your tax records.’ I have nothing in them that suggests there’s any problem, and I’m happy to do so. I sort of feel like we are showing a lot of exposure at this point. And if I become our nominee, and what’s happened in history is people have released them in about April of the coming year and that’s probably what I would do.” Romney earns much of his income from capital gains, which are taxed at a lower rate than that for even the lowest military service member. He has so far refused to release his taxes.

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S&P Downgrades Eurozone Bailout

January 16, 2012

BRUSSELS — Rating agency Standard & Poor’s said Monday it has downgraded the creditworthiness of the eurozone’s rescue fund by one notch to AA+, putting the fund’s ability to raise cheap bailout money at risk. The downgrade follows ratings cuts for AAA-rated France and Austria, whose financial guarantees were key to the creditworthiness of the European Financial Stability Facility. “The downgrade to ‘AA+’ by only one credit agency will not reduce (the) EFSF’s lending capacity of euro440 billion,” Klaus Regling, the fund’s chief executive officer, said in a statement. S&P had warned in December that it would cut the rating of the euro440 billion EFSF in line with the downgrades of any AAA country. Moody’s and Fitch, the other big two rating agencies, still have the EFSF at AAA, meaning that it would count as a top-notch investment for most funds. But analysts warn that further downgrades are likely soon. Once another big agency cuts the EFSF’s rating, the eurozone faces a stark choice. Either the fund starts issuing lower-rated bonds – and accepts higher borrowing costs – or its remaining AAA contributors increase their guarantees. So far, Germany, the biggest of the four AAA economies in the eurozone, has ruled out boosting its commitments to the fund, and increases also appear politically difficult in the Netherlands and Finland. Another option would be to accept that the EFSF can give out fewer loans. Because of the EFSF’s strange setup the bonds it issues to raise bailout money are underpinned by some euro720 billion in guarantees from the 14 eurozone countries that haven’t received bailouts. But for issuing AAA-rated bonds, only AAA-guarantees count, taking the fund’s lending capacity down to euro440 billion. With the downgrades of France and Austria, the EFSF loses some euro180 billion in AAA-guarantees, leaving it with a loan capacity of euro260 billion. Of that, around euro40 billion have already been committed to the bailouts of Ireland and Portugal, and a new Greek rescue will quickly take more than euro100 billion out of the till. While that leaves the eurozone with a severely diminished firewall, the lower lending capacity may not matter that much. To rescue Italy and Spain, the EFSF would need more than euro1 trillion, according to analysts, and whether the shortfall is euro900 billion or euro600 billion won’t make much of a difference.

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5 Ways A Renter Can Save On Wintertime Heating Bills

January 16, 2012

From Mother Nature Network’s Matt Hickman: Q: I rent a shared two-bedroom apartment in Boston that’s somewhat of an anomaly in this “heat and hot water included”-heavy town: My roommate and I are in control of, and pay for, our own gas heating. Last winter’s monthly heating bills were somewhat of a horror show (I guess that’s what we get for scoring a decent pad with relatively cheap rent) so we’ve decided to put our heads together to see how we can reduce the cost. Have any quick and easy ideas on how we should start? A: I’m in the exact same boat, my friend. My rental is quite lovely and affordable (at least by downtown Brooklyn standards), but when I signed away on that initial lease several years ago, I had no idea as to how financially draining those winter heating bills could be. To make things worse, I live on the top floor of an older building that directly faces the water, so when those January winds pick up, there’s no way I’m not cranking up the thermostat. Still, I’ve managed to pick up a few tips and tidbits that have helped me stay cozy and save a few bucks each month without having to resort to drastic measures like building a bonfire in the middle of the living room.

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Google Calls Murdoch’s Allegations ‘Nonsense’

January 16, 2012

“This is just nonsense,” wrote a Google spokeswoman. “Last year we took down 5 million infringing Web pages from our search results and invested more than $60 million in the fight against bad ads…We fight pirates and counterfeiters every day.”

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Zappos Hacked!

January 16, 2012

It appears that Zappos was the victim of a cyber attack today from a hacker who gained access to the company’s internal network through the company’s servers in Kentucky. While specifics of the attack were not revealed, Zappos says that credit card and payments data were not accessed or affected by the criminal.

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Roger Martin: The Circus In Which the Modern CEO Lives

January 15, 2012

This post is in response to the comments left by readers on my post yesterday, “What CEOs and Hedge Funds Don’t Want the 99% to Understand.” Readers often challenge what they see as my dark view of CEOs and hedge fund managers, telling me that they aren’t really the manipulative, volatility-embracing folks that I make them out to be. They are half right. Readers are right that I don’t care much for hedge fund managers. They trade value rather than build value, playing a zero-sum game that has no benefit for society. And they behave badly, happily destroying companies so that they can make profits shorting them on the way down. Rather than enjoying preferential tax treatment, hedge fund managers should face adverse tax treatment and pension funds should not be allowed to invest with any manager that charges both a fee for assets under management (e.g., 2%/year) and a carried interest (e.g., 20% of the upside). This is exactly the compensation structure of a CEO with a luxurious base salary plus lots of stock options. As we found in the dot.com bubble, this salary plus stock options provides nothing but an incentive to swing for the fences because you can do very nicely on the base (here the 2%) and if you hit a home run, you get wildly rich. If, as is likely, you strike out, someone else (the investor) pays 100% of the price. Providing an incentive for hedge fund managers to swing for the fences is absolutely counter to the interests of pensioners or educational institutions that count on endowment income, as so very many found to their chagrin in 2008-2009. Hedge funds need to be taxed aggressively and have their supply lines of capital cut off for the good of the economy now and in the future. In contrast, I empathize with CEOs. Many of them try to be good but in the crazy, twisted system in which they live, it is really hard to focus on the right things — like serving customers and building a competitive business for the long term. Stock-based incentive compensation is right at the root of the nutty circus in which they live. When a worker is given incentive compensation, if she doesn’t pursue goals that attempt to earn the incentive compensation pay-off provided, she is being insubordinate. So if a salesperson is given a quota of selling $2 million of widgets in the year with a bonus of $50,000 if she achieves the target, she is insubordinate if she doesn’t attempt to sell $2 million of widgets. If a CEO is given stock-based compensation — say a grant of stock options at market price on January 1 of the year — it is strictly and simply an incentive to make the stock price rise from its current level. That is the only way the CEO will earn the targeted incentive compensation. Thus if that CEO doesn’t concentrate on causing the stock-price rise from the current level, he is being insubordinate. This makes it very important to understand what determines stock prices. A stock price is nothing more or less than the product of the collective expectations of investors as to what will happen to the company in the future. It is not something real; it is something ethereal, produced in the minds of investors and based on their beliefs about the future, whatever those beliefs happen to be. Those beliefs can be influenced by what is really going on in the company, but they are in no way limited by reality. That is why in the back half of 2008, the stock market dropped in half when the economy shrunk by 3%. Expectations swing much more wildly than reality. This means that stock-based incentive compensation directs CEOs to focus not on improving the real performance of the company but rather on raising expectations of future performance. This means that they need to spend lots of time talking to Wall Street analysts, using guidance to encourage them to raise their expectations as to future performance. Or it means making lots of acquisitions to provide the appearance of growth. Or it means buying back stock so that it looks like earnings per share grew a lot giving yet another appearance of growth. In this Wall Street circus, it is very difficult for the CEO to ignore the expectations of the analysts. Rigorous academic research has proven without a shadow of doubt that it is better for a company to meet or beat analysts’ earnings expectations than it is to perform absolutely better. That is, imagine a company earned $1.00/share last quarter: under Scenario A, analysts’ consensus forecast for this quarter was $1.15 and the company actually earned $1.12; and under Scenario B, analysts’ consensus forecast for this quarter was $1.07 and the company actually earned $1.10. The research shows that the company’s stock price will be definitively higher under Scenario B — the lower real performance of $1.10 vs. $1.12 in Scenario A — because the real performance beat Wall Street’s expectations. This is why other academic research shows that the majority of large company CFOs would cancel or postpone attractive investment projects — i.e., ones that they are certain are good for the company’s long term performance — in order to meet analysts’ consensus forecast for the current quarter. This is the circus in which the modern CEO operates. They are insubordinate if they don’t work to raise expectations about future performance and instead concentrate on real performance. Wall Street punishes them harshly for not meeting short-term expectations. And the hedge funds circle around like vultures attempting to make a buck no matter how much their actions damage perfectly good companies. Given that they live in the surreal circus, it is truly impressive how many CEOs actually do try to build their companies for the long term and tell Wall Street to stuff it. Unfortunately, it is hard to do and many CEOs succumb to playing destructive short term games that enrich themselves, impoverish their shareholders, abandon their employees and damage our economy.

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Media Titan Calls Google A ‘Piracy Leader’

January 15, 2012

On Saturday, the News Corp. CEO used his new Twitter account to rail against the search giant, call it a “piracy leader,” and gripe that it had too much influence in Washington, and the White House, in particular.

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Could Your Next Lover Be Your Phone?

January 15, 2012

A friend’s father recently traded in his prehistoric Motorola flip phone for Apple’s iPhone 4S. In no time, his family was forced to open its arms to a new member of the family: Siri, the iPhone 4S’s voice-controlled personal assistant She was an active participant in conversations. She cracked jokes, offered suggestions for things to do, settled arguments, and entertained an eight-year-old during a quiet afternoon. The spouse of the proud new iPhone owner realized she now had to compete for her husband’s attentions. “He talks to Siri now more than to me,” she said wryly. Siri is merely a crude harbinger of what’s to come: the phone as friend. Gadget makers, from car manufacturers to smartphone sellers, are at the beginning of a race to develop devices that satisfy a desire even more primal than the need for convenience, communication and constant connectedness: the desire to feel loved. They are harnessing new technology, such as voice recognition, to create more personable gadgets that we can relate to and we feel relate to us. We are being asked, and shown how, to fall in love with these devices because they can talk to us, care for us, and anticipate our needs — even more effectively, in some cases, than a close friend. Siri can already be sarcastic, unpredictable and even flirtatious, giving the impression that our phone is not merely a phone, but a companion. As specs, those unwieldy, acronym-laden descriptors of a device’s speed and storage capabilities hold less sway over our choice of phone or PC, and companies are seeking out new ways to distinguish their products from the competition. In recent years, hardware-peddlers such as Apple and Amazon have succeeded by marketing devices that tap into an ecosystem of apps, music, movies and other content, understanding that much of the appeal of the device resides in what you can do on it. The products on display at this year’s Consumer Electronics Show, the world’s largest consumer tech expo , suggest that the next competitive advantage lies in developing the gadget that doubles as a companion. The device with impressive specs is being supplanted by the gadget that can sympathize. We’ll love our phone not because it has a great camera or terrific processing speeds, but because that Siri is just so darn fun to be around and boy, she really gets me. And it’s not just about the gadgets that fit in the palms of our hands. As I previously reported , Ford’s global manager of health and wellness research, Gary Strumolo, stated in explicit terms his hope that drivers will feel they have a relationship with a vehicle that looks after their well-being and takes care of them by tracking their health. “The more that you talk to a car that understands you, understands your needs, and maybe even anticipates your needs, the more you’ll have an emotional bond with the car,” Strumolo said during a keynote at the Consumer Electronics Show. “You’ll think, ‘This car is really concerned with my well-being. I feel it understands me, it’s helping me.’ It’s essentially a personal assistant.” Gadget-makers are exploring a litany of ways to seduce us into sensing an emotional relationship with our devices. For example, equipped with the right kind of software, our gadgetry could use our personal information, as well as data about our past behavior, to anticipate our needs and offer the kind of considerate suggestions we’d expect from a spouse. Our tablet would not only be the tool that helps us accomplish an activity, but also the playmate that suggests what to do in the first place. When I sit down in front of my TV, the set will recognize me and remember that I’ve watched three seasons of “Law and Order” and every hour of the “Sopranos,” but I couldn’t get past the first episode of “Community.” “Bianca,” the television might say, “maybe you’d be in the mood for ‘CSI’? I’m pretty sure I saw the first season on Netflix.” With information from Facebook, which is also being integrated into TV sets and smartphones, our devices could reference our network of family and friends, giving the impression that they’re just one of the gang. “Matt and Jesse have been raving about ‘Boardwalk Empire’ in their status updates,” the set top box would tell me. “And Mallory, Eric and Andrew all ‘liked’ it. That could be a good one for tonight.” Our homes are not so far away from this omniscient reality. Later this year, Samsung will release TVs outfitted with facial recognition systems that enable the set to scan the viewer’s face and display customized entertainment options depending on who sits down in front of the boob tube. Google executive chairman Eric Schmidt also envisioned a household of inter-connected gadgets , all powered by Google’s Android software, that would recognize and react when you entered the room, displaying, say, your text messages on a TV screen. Companies like Amazon and Foursquare already propose recommendations based on the books or venues we’ve enjoyed in the past. Given that computers can process more data and recognize patterns more efficiently than us mere mortals, our smartphones, tablets and TVs might even be able to predict a friend’s needs better than we can. I thought my cousin would go wild over the Don DeLillo book I gave him for his birthday. Amazon, on the other hand, knows he’s already bought it. What will make these personalized suggestions so powerful is the fact that they’re being coupled with new hardware that allows gadgets to respond in more human ways. Machines are making an effort to connect with us in the same way we connect with each other. We can now talk to our TVs or carry on conversations with our smartphones. Microsoft’s Kinect, coupled with its Xbox gaming system, can pick up on our body language and respond to our voice. You can flip through movies just as you’d brush aside the offer of tea from a host, or issue it commands as you might speak to a young child. Other companies like SoftKinetic and PrimeSense are also working on gesture recognition technology that requires waving at TV as you might an old friend and they aim to embed their sensors into everything from PCs to smartphones. I’m not predicting a world in which humans are made obsolete by more caring, altruistic cyborgs. But it does portend a changing relationship with our devices, one that stands to see us forge more intimate bonds with our electronics and rely on them even more than we do now. Gadgets have always been a means of connecting to someone personable. But what happens if the means become personable themselves? Siri?

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Cruise Disaster Unlikely To Harm The Industry Long-Term

January 15, 2012

WASHINGTON — The luxury cruise liner that ran aground off the Italian coast has rattled even the most die-hard “cruisers” in an industry where catastrophic accidents are rare, but it’s unlikely to do significant long-term damage. The Costa Concordia hit a reef, tearing a massive gash into its hull and sending in a rush of water that caused it to tip over. The ordeal was described by many of the 4,234 people aboard as something akin to scenes from the film “Titanic.” At least three people died, and dozens remain unaccounted for. Disasters of this magnitude don’t strike often, especially considering the number of passengers traveling on cruise ships each year. The Cruise Lines International Association, an industry trade group, says on its website that more than 15 million passengers traveled on its member cruise lines in 2010. That number was expected to climb to more than 16 million in 2011, CLIA said. The trade group counts 26 cruise lines among its members – including Costa and its parent company, Carnival Corp. Industry observers said the disaster is unlikely to have a significant impact on cruise line travel. “When a plane goes down, how many people stop flying?” said Stewart Chiron, who writes the blog Cruiseguy.com. “It’s inevitable that a few people will be concerned, but I think most people understand that these things happen, and that the cruise industry as a whole has an incredible safety record.” Frequent cruise passengers were talking about the wreck on the website Cruisecritic.com, which counts about 700,000 members. “Mostly it’s shock and praying for the people on board,” said the site’s managing editor, John Deiner. He added there was “no real sense that they’re going to stop cruising.” He also said, however, that it was too soon to tell exactly how the incident would affect bookings for future cruises. Furthermore, people who booked a trip aboard the Concordia may not know yet how the cruise line will handle their reservations. Indeed the industry has grown significantly in recent years. According to CLIA, cruise lines set 12 new ships sailing in 2010, and added another 14 in 2011. Carnival holds a large chunk of the cruise market – it says it carried nearly 50 percent of the world’s cruise passengers in 2010. All told, there are 100 ships in the fleets of its various brands. The company is the parent of 10 cruise lines, among them Costa Cruises, Holland America Line, Princess Cruises and Carnival Cruise Lines. The industry’s capacity has grown at an annual rate of 5.7 percent from 2005 to 2010, according to Carnival’s regulatory filings. The full extent of Carnival’s liabilities as a result of the Costa Corncordia accident remains to be seen. The company’s insurance is a combination of self-insurance – a fund that it maintains for disasters – and policies with high deductibles, according to its financial disclosures. “We are not protected against all risks, which could result in unexpected increases in our expenses in the event of an incident,” the company’s SEC filings say. Some of Carnival’s liability could be determined from the voyage data recorder, a device similar to a “black box” used to analyze a plane crash. The recorders allow investigators to review what happened just before an accident. Jack Hickey, a Miami attorney who has practiced maritime law for 32 years, said Costa Cruises will likely face legal consequences for a whole host of reasons, including the captain of the Costa Concordia’s apparent decision not to immediately issue a mayday call and inability to properly navigate the ship before it ran aground. Costa said in its statement that the captain tried to prepare for an eventual evacuation, but that it was too difficult for passengers to get off because the ship tilted suddenly. “If you are the captain of a ship carrying 4,000 people, you should know the waters you ply like the back of your hand,” Hickey said. “There are obviously questions about that. It’s one thing to get into problems, but you must react appropriately.” However, Hickey also said he doubted the accident would have a broad impact on the cruise industry. “The cruise industry as a whole is pretty healthy, it’s growing,” he said. “It might affect bookings on Costa in the near term, certainly over the next year.” Safety standards for large passenger ships grew out of a convention in 1914, two years after the Titanic disaster. The rules eventually were adopted by the International Maritime Organization, an agency of the United Nations. Among the requirements: Ships must have public address systems for announcements to passengers; lifeboats must be fully or partially enclosed; and ships must have evacuation chutes, similar to what airplanes have. Ships also must hold weekly “abandon ship” and fire drills. International rules require that lifeboats be capable of being loaded, launched and maneuvered away from the ship within 30 minutes of the signal to abandon ship. The lifeboats apparently weren’t accessible in this case because of the ship’s rapid tilting. ___ Associated Press writers Curt Anderson in Miami and Greg Schreier in Atlanta contributed to this report.

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Sarkozy Uses Downgrade To Rally France..Without Mentioning It

January 15, 2012

AMBOISE, France — French President Nicolas Sarkozy says France must have the courage and calmness to make difficult decisions to overcome the financial crisis, in his first public appearance since the country’s credit rating was downgraded. But Sarkozy avoided any mention Sunday of the loss of France’s prized AAA rating in a Standard & Poor’s review two days earlier. Instead he issued a rallying call, saying that a united France committed to reform would make it through. France chooses a new president this spring, and Sarkozy was already behind in the polls before the downgrade. The loss of the AAA rating was a severe blow to France’s self-image and is expected to hurt Sarkozy’s standing even further.

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Who Are The 1 Percent?

January 15, 2012

KINGS POINT, N.Y. — Adam Katz is happy to talk to reporters when he is promoting his business, a charter flight company based on Long Island called Talon Air. But when the subject was his position as one of America’s top earners, he balked. Seated at a desk fashioned from a jet fuel cell, wearing a button-down shirt with the company logo, he considered the public relations benefits and found them lacking: “It’s not very popular to be in the 1 percent these days, is it?”

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Jeffrey Sachs: How the Wall Street Journal Misleads About Federal Jobs

January 14, 2012

The editorial board of Rupert Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal has a simple game. They want to cut taxes for the rich and government services for the rest, and end regulations of banks and the environment. They support taxpayer-financed bailouts of Wall Street when needed. They will twist any facts in the service of these goals. Today’s lead editorial, with its graph of “Obama’s Growing Payroll,” is a perfect example of how the WSJ misleads rather than informs. The gist of the editorial is that Obama is presiding over a massive increase of government, exemplified by the surge of civilian employees. The graph shows a striking rise of federal employment from around 1.875 million in 2008 to 2.1 million in 2011. (I reproduce this as Figure 1 below). The Journal neglects the fact that today’s 2.1 million workers is actually identical to the number of Federal employees in 1981 at the start of the Reagan Administration, 1989 at the end of the Reagan Administration, and 1993 at the end of the Bush Sr. Administration. The numbers went down slightly after that (by around 200,000-300,000 workers as of the late 1990s) with a decline in Defense Department civilian employees, a decline that was probably offset by the rise of private defense contractors (not included in the OMB tables). There is no long-term trend at all. (I show this as Figure 2 below). The Journal endlessly tries to portray the “growth of government” as a social welfare system run amok. The editorial implies that President Obama is repeating LBJ’s Great Society by building up giant welfare and regulatory programs reflected in the “boom” of federal employment. But where did this so-called “boom” (actually a tiny boomlet) actually appear? In Great Society programs? In entitlements? No, the increase in employment is mainly in national-security-related employment : the military, homeland security, and justice (including prisons, FBI, drug enforcement, and the like). Welfare and entitlements programs little to do with. If we parse the increase of 225,000 federal jobs between 2008 and 2011, three-fourths came in the Defense Department (+84,000), Homeland Security (+28,000), Justice (+13,000), and Veteran’s Affairs (+45,000). Of course the Journal’s entire argument is absurd, a red herring, since the increase of 225,000 jobs represents all of 0.0017 of U.S. non-farm employment of 131 million workers. The entire federal civilian workforce is a mere 1.6 percent of the total non-farm employment. The Journal is taking tiny fluctuations and making them into a federal case, so to speak, for its propagandistic purposes. The actual fact of relevance is that the federal government has been declining as a share of national non-farm employment, from 2.3 percent in 1981 to 1.6 percent in 2011. (I show this in Figure 3 below). Partly this is because services that government should be providing have instead been outsourced to political cronies (especially among defense and security contractors). Partly its because of the true shrinkage, not expansion, of the federal government’s programs relative to GDP in non-security activities such as the environment, job training, community development — the matters that benefit poor and working class households, who don’t, incidentally, read the Wall Street Journal . The big lie of our time is that the federal government is expanding out of control. Yes, there is undoubted waste, especially in military outlays and in outlays for over-priced private health services. The Journal is a promoter of that variety of waste, the kind that benefits the 1 percent represented by powerful lobbyists, and that hurts the rest of society. For government services that count for the 99 percent, the federal government is shrinking, alas, no matter which phony figures the Wall Street Journal throws our way. Figure 1. Federal Employment 2001-2012, Source: OMB Figure 2. Federal Employment, 1981 to 2011, Source: OMB Figure 3. Federal Employment as a Percent of Non-Farm Employment, Source: OMB and Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Mohamed A. El-Erian: Do Friday’s European Downgrades Matter?

January 14, 2012

The chatter on Friday’s downgrades of European sovereign ratings debt is all over the place — from those dismissing it as old news (especially given that S&P warned back on December 5th) to those viewing it as part of a larger and consequential transformation of the international monetary system. What follows is an attempt to provide a guide to the multifaceted implications. It focuses on three types of consequences: (i) those that are unambiguous and already reflected, albeit not fully, in market valuations; (ii) those that are less well understood but will become clearer in the next few weeks; and (iii) those that are consequential but where the analytics are still largely unknown at present. The sovereign debt of European sovereigns was already trading at yields consistent not only with what S&P announced today, but also with more draconian downgrades — thus the view that the impact on overall yields and spreads would be contained. Yet there are some differences between signaling an action and actually taking it. First you remove residual uncertainty about the action, including timing and scale. Second, you encourage others to follow. Third, you impact the pattern of investment flows, especially those subject to guidelines and restrictions defined in terms of ratings. All three are relevant for Europe. The net result has both a quantity and price angle: a decline in future investment flows into the Eurozone, and incremental market pressure that, other things being equal, would be more persistent than would have otherwise been the case. This speaks to a weaker Euro and recurrent volatility in sovereign spreads. In introducing a rating wedge at the very inner core of the Eurozone, the downgrade of France in particular impacts Pan-European vehicles. This includes the ESFS which the European Union uses to bailout countries and, in future, banks. While there is some short-term uncertainty, the scope of these vehicles — and, therefore, their effectiveness in countering the region’s debt crisis — will be undermined. It also has implications for the ECBs continued willingness to contaminate its own balance sheet. That takes us to known unknowns, and they are consequential. It is unclear the extent to which the downgrades will alter the function of the international monetary system over time. It is also unclear how material the incremental headwinds blowing out of Europe will be for countries already facing internal fragilities. It is unclear the extent to which the downgrades will materially impact the asset quality and capital adequacy of banks and other financial institutions. And there is little clarity on the range of reactions on the part of companies, depositors and households. Over the next weeks, months and years, we will learn a lot more about the consequences of today’s historical downgrades in Europe. What is clear at this stage is that the balance of risks is to the downside, for Europe and for the global economy. This post originally appeared on CNBC.com .

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S&P Downgrades France And Italy As Investors Avoid Eurozone

January 13, 2012

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services slashed the credit ratings of nine eurozone countries on Friday, marking a deterioration in confidence in the troubled eurozone. S&P stripped France and Austria of their gold-plated AAA ratings, downgrading them to AA+, and downgraded Italy and Spain two notches to BBB+ and A, respectively. It also downgraded Portugal and Cyprus to junk, or non-investment grade, ratings: BB and BB+ respectively. Slovenia was downgraded to A+ from AA-, Slovakia was downgraded to A from A+ and Malta was downgraded to A- from A. “The policy initiatives that have been taken by European policymakers in recent weeks may be insufficient to fully address ongoing systemic stresses in the eurozone,” S&P said in a statement on Friday. S&P emphasized that more downgrades were likely. S&P said that it has placed 14 eurozone countries on negative outlook, including France — the second-largest economy in Europe — Belgium, Italy, Spain and even the AAA-rated Netherlands and Finland. Just Germany and Slovakia escaped from a negative outlook. Some Northern eurozone countries avoided a downgrade, such as AAA-rated Germany, the AAA-rated Netherlands and AA-rated Belgium. Ireland’s BBB+ rating also did not take a further hit, though its outlook is negative. Unlike during S&P’s downgrade of the U.S.’s credit rating, which investors largely ignored as they continued to buy U.S. debt, European investors this time have preempted the rating cuts by already pulling investments out of the eurozone. Though the news had been expected for weeks, American and European stocks fell on Friday. The S&P fell 0.49 percent, the DAX in Germany fell 0.58 percent and the FTSE 100 in Britain fell 0.46 percent. The euro plunged 1 percent to $1.2684, near a 16-month low, according to Bloomberg. Investors also sold off Italian and Spanish government bonds, driving up the interest rate on 10-year Italian government debt to 6.74 percent as of 4:40 p.m. EST, according to The Financial Times . Investors told The Huffington Post that European leaders simply are not focused on the essentials for investor confidence — such as economic growth and a credible backstop for European governments — as the European Central Bank maintains its hardline stance against buying much government debt and the eurozone plunges into recession. Though the downgrade will hurt French national pride, the real issue is that eurozone countries are being cut off from market funding and may suffer from a prolonged recession, said Jonathan Lemco, principal and senior analyst at Vanguard, an investment company. “In the absence of clarity, why get involved?” Lemco said. He said plenty of safer government debt is being issued elsewhere, and as long as the European Central Bank does not provide backstop funding for governments and economic growth does not appear likely, investors will continue to avoid eurozone countries. Bart van Ark, chief economist at the Conference Board, said that investors are concerned that German leaders are pursuing priorities in the wrong order. He said that first, the European Stability Mechanism — a European bailout fund — should triple in size to 1.5 trillion euros, or $1.9 trillion, as a backstop for troubled governments, then the eurozone should become fiscally integrated. But instead, Germany is trying to implement tougher penalties for countries that exceed deficit limits. When someone is drowning, a lifeguard should not insist that the drowning person learn to swim before saving him, he said. “The timing of what they want to do is wrong,” van Ark said. Valentijn van Nieuwenhuijzen, head of macroeconomic strategy at ING Investment Management, said that three preconditions are essential for investors to be confident enough to invest in the government debt of countries such as Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. Van Nieuwenhuijzen said that first, the ECB needs to act as a lender of last resort for governments, even if through another institution such as the International Monetary Fund. Second, the eurozone needs to be set on a path toward economic growth, ideally driven by a two-year stimulus in Northern European countries led by Germany, which would boost exports from Southern Europe to Northern Europe and support economic growth throughout the eurozone. Third, the eurozone needs to become more fiscally integrated and commit to implementing more economic reforms that would make Europe more competitive. “What is misperceived by a lot of policymakers and commentators is that investors only want fiscal reform,” van Nieuwenhuijzen said. “It’s still a very popular political ploy along with this fantasy that fiscal austerity will generate expansion in the real economy…. There is no global support of this theory in academia, but still it’s very popular.” But Germany still seems far from pursuing such a plan. Jens Weidmann, head of the German central bank, recently said that he wants Germany to do no new borrowing, even though investors now are paying Germany for some government bonds. Weidmann recently told the Tagesspiegel newspaper in Germany, ”We must quickly achieve a structurally balanced budget.” This story has been updated from its original version to reflect S&P’s official announcement Friday of its downgrades and outlook for eurozone countries.

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Robert K. Lifton: Mitt Romney and Bain Capital: Understanding the Reality

January 13, 2012

In support of his run for the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney has cited his experience at Bain Capital, the private equity firm he founded and led for many years. He has argued that that experience in which he “created 100,000 jobs” demonstrates his capabilities at job creation for the nation and is a qualification for the position of president. Some Romney supporters have gone further. Thus, Utah Governor Gary Herbert, appearing on CNBC’s Squawk Box, argued that Romney’s experience at Bain in “turning around” companies demonstrates that he can “turn around” the United States. Romney’s claims of job creation opened the door to attacks from other Republican candidates. Newt Gingrich and a “super PAC” supporting him, financed by Las Vegas mogul Sheldon Adelson, are claiming in emotion laden ads that Romney’s activities at Bain actually reduced jobs and harmed employees. And Texas Governor Rick Perry has characterized private equity companies like Bain as “vultures” that destroy worker’s lives. Now, Republican leaders of all stripes, including former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani are rushing to the defense of Romney, arguing that attacks on his business record are antithetical to the Republican party’s support of business and free market capitalism. The reality is both more simple and more complex than all those allegations would have one believe. It is simple because the function of Bain and other private equity funds has no planned relation to job creation or job losses. It is more complex, because the activities of Bain do tell us something about Mitt Romney — having nothing to do with jobs. Let’s look at how Bain and other private equity companies actually operate. The business goal of private equity companies is to make profits for investors in the equity funds they manage. The greater the profits for the investors, the larger the take of the fund managers, who typically receive a base management fee of about 2 percent plus a portion of the fund profits, generally around 20 percent. If the fund manager is very successful then the manager’s participation in profits may run as high as 30 percent, which investors may be prepared to accept just to be able to invest with that manager. We’re told that Bain was very successful in creating very high returns on investment for its investors, said to be an astounding 88 percent per year, to the point where it could get 30 percent participation in profits. One tax advantage of the fund mangers is that although their business is to get paid by creating values, unlike other payment for services, which is taxed as ordinary income, their return for their services is treated as capital gain and taxed at the lower capital gains rate. What the private equity firms do to earn those returns is to seek out opportunities to acquire companies where by adding their efforts and talents they will be able to increase the value of the company to the point where they can realize the increased value by selling the company or its assets. A sale can be made to another company, frequently a much larger one in a related field, to another private equity fund which believes it can create even more value for its own investors, or in a public offering to a broad group of shareholders. Most often, in order to increase the return on capital invested by the fund, the fund will borrow a significant portion of the purchase price of the business. And sometimes, if it can, the fund will take back as a distribution immediately upon closing the purchase of the business, a portion of its investment in the purchase price, reducing its own investment and enhancing its return on the investment left in the business. This distribution may come from the company’s existing cashable assets or from money that the company is caused to borrow. This additional leverage also creates additional risk; if things don’t go right the business will not be able to pay the carrying costs of the debt, the lender will take over the business and the fund will lose its investment. Sometimes, that results in the acquired company placed in bankruptcy proceedings either to liquidate its assets to pay off the debt or to restructure, a process Bain also experienced. It should be evident in understanding the function of Bain and other equity funds that job creation or job loss is ancillary to the investment goals and activities. To increase the profits of the acquired company, the fund may reduce the number of employees, reduce pay levels or curtail work time. In that case the fund could face worker anger and union pressure. If the company happens to become very successful, as Staples did after Bain acquired it, it may expand its business requiring that it increase hiring and work time. So what does all of that tell us about Mitt Romney? Certainly, his success in founding the Bain equity fund and operating it very successfully for a number of years speaks to his initiative and intelligence, his commitment to hard work, his ability to pull together a team of talented people and work closely with them. It also tells us that he is willing to take risks and to take action required to achieve his goals irrespective of whether that action helps or hurts people affected by it — in this case employees of the acquired companies. It also tells us that he is flexible — he could not accomplish what he did without being adaptable, willing to “go with the flow” and accommodate his views to his business interests and those of his investors and lenders. We have already seen much of that flexibility in his willingness as a candidate to change his political positions to accommodate the demands of the constituency whose support he is seeking. It also tells us that what he says now on the stump is not necessarily what he will do if he is elected president to accomplish his goals. It also should be evident that “turning around” a business has little relationship with trying to change the direction of a country. The objectives of Bain were clear-cut: increase the profits from the business at whatever cost to employees or suppliers. The objectives of a nation are rarely clear-cut and reflect the balancing of interests of different constituencies with different, often conflicting, desires and aims. The ability to change an acquired company’s direction lay within the power of Bain management. By contrast, the power of a president is diffuse and depends on political circumstances beyond the president’s control, like which party is in power in which branch of government. Leading a nation in a particular direction in those circumstances is very difficult if not impossible, and requires political talents of the highest order to bring the nation with him. And therein lies the rub. Mitt Romney of Bain Capital was a good businessman. The selection process of choosing the Republican candidate and later the president calls for a different valuation based on other criteria: choosing a political leader whose values conform to those of the voter making the choice. A person whose emotional make-up allows him to handle the crushing burdens of office and gut wrenching decisions such as sending troops off to war. Mitt Romney’s business activities at Bain tell us very little about those important values and what he would seek to do as president. And unfortunately, Mitt Romney’s career as a politician and now as a candidate tell us little more than that he can be all things to all people. We have to look elsewhere than Bain Capital to make a well-reasoned decision about Romney’s qualifications for the job of president. Mr. Lifton, a businessman and political activist is writing a book entitled “Life’s Lessons and Stories From a Member of the “Greatest Generation.”

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Jeff Greene: Downgrading the Big Three

January 13, 2012

Since August, when Standard and Poor’s cut its ratings for America’s debt, stock markets have swung wildly on news that one country or another faced a similar downgrade. Many investors cowered on the sidelines as rating agencies issued warnings. But while ominous news reports spooked traders, the rates paid on U.S. Treasury bonds actually declined when a ratings downgrade should have forced them upward. The public may be puzzled to see that countries on the downgrade watch-list may actually pay less to borrow. However, experienced investors know that the market has adopted a new attitude about the once venerable ratings agencies that grade debt issued by corporations and governments. Indeed, Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch — also known as The Big Three — lost much of their credibility as they failed to act as reliable brokers of information and played a big part in creating the economic crisis that began in 2007. In effect, the market has downgraded them. I first discovered the flaws in the ratings system in the spring of 2006, when I began examining the pools of mortgages offered to investors by many major banks. The Big Three had judged these instruments to be safe, investment grade bonds and given them their approval. But anyone who took the time to review the underlying loans could see they were full of problems. In many of the pools, which were rated investment grade by all three agencies, 70 percent of the mortgages were interest-only notes that would require a doubling of payments in just two years. A homeowner who could barely afford a $1,000 a month- – and wouldn’t qualify if forced to show his true financial condition — would suddenly be required to pay $2,000. Anyone could see that securities backed by these kinds of loans would fail when their teaser interest rates went up three percent and the principal and the interest-only feature was eliminated at the same time. The mortgages that were about to re-set ticked like a time bomb inside a real estate bubble that had been growing since the year 2000. In that time investors had poured hundreds of billions of dollars into these mortgage loan pools, mainly on the basis of the high ratings they received from The Big Three. All this money made it easy for lenders to keep offering loans to borrowers who weren’t required to prove their income or assets. The easy money, which significantly lowered the monthly cost of buying a home, helped further inflate real estate values as millions of people who were not genuinely qualified, became proud but over-extended homeowners. The bubble was there for all to see. Indeed, many individuals and institutions examined the mortgage market and concluded, as I did, that The Big Three, who were supposed to act like the cop on the beat, had failed. The securities underlying the housing bubble were fatally flawed. When it finally burst, the small number of us who called the market correctly, profited. Those who had trusted the rating agencies suffered enormous losses. Worse still, the collapse in real estate brought down the rest of the economy, giving us the worst crisis since the Great Depression. In the aftermath of the meltdown, it’s plain to see that most of the individual players acted as they were supposed to act in a free market. Renters became owners when offered cheap mortgages. Lenders kept issuing loans because investors kept funding securitized mortgages. Investors acted on the basis on the high grades granted to these mortgage securities because they didn’t understand that the rules of rating had changed. To understand how, you have to go back to when the longstanding relationship between The Big Three and the market was radically reformed. In the early 1970s a variety of reasons led the big rating agencies to stop charging investors for their services and begin billing those who wanted their stamp of approval. Since Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P charged roughly the same price, they competed mainly on the basis of providing good service. Good service meant maintaining good relations with the corporations and public debtors they reviewed. At the same time everyone issuing debt was essentially “paying to play” as they wrote checks to agencies certifying their quality. Once debtors began paying the bills, ratings underwent a gradual kind of grade inflation as AAA, and AA, became the equivalent of “gentleman’s Cs” in the Ivy League of old. I think most investors failed to take this change into account and continued to rely on The Big Three as if they had maintained their independence. They got one wake-up call in the 1990s when Orange County, California was rated AA on the eve of going bankrupt. Another came in 2001 as Standard and Poor’s judged Enron to be “stable” until about a month before it filed for Chapter 11. Now, after the catastrophe of 2007, we should all see that the ratings system is fatally flawed. I won’t say that the individuals working in it are corrupt. But we shouldn’t deny that over time, the competition for clients and dependency on their payments invariably bred a familiarity that clouded the process of analysis. If Orange Country and Enron didn’t teach us this lesson, surely the great recession has. Today, as the ratings agencies eyeball sovereign debt, they seem determined to make up for their past mistakes by erring in the opposite direction. In downgrading the United States last August, S&P had to ignore America’s standing as the world’s leading national economy with an unbroken, centuries-old record of honoring its debt. While we may have big trade deficits and debt right now, nothing fundamental has changed in a way that justified the August downgrade. This is why S&P’s action did not lead to a flight from U.S. Treasury issues but a decline in the rating agency’s reputation, as investors questioned the motivation behind the downgrade. Going forward, investors must be less dependent on ratings and The Big Three and rely more on their own due diligence. Fortunately, the abundance of public data available makes it possible for us to conduct this research and make our decisions independently. A rating from Fitch, Moody’s, or S&P may be factored into our ultimate buy-or-sell choices, but the days when those grades are the main determining factor are over.

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‘The Real Romney’: 2008 Campaign Aides Say ‘The Bain Way’ Didn’t Work

January 13, 2012

The failure of Mitt Romney’s first run for the White House was, in many regards, an illustration of how inapplicable a background in private equity is to presidential politics, conclude the authors of a sharply reported new book on the former Massachusetts governor. Obtained in advance by The Huffington Post, the book “The Real Romney” is an exploration of Romney’s business and political careers by Michael Kranish and Scott Helman, who have followed him from their perch at the “Boston Globe.” Set to be released on Tuesday, the book includes numerous nuggets from Romney’s failed effort to win the GOP’s presidential nomination in 2008. For example, his campaign’s first top strategist, Alex Castellanos, had suggested adopting the phrase “Yes, we can,” only to watch as Barack Obama snatched it first, the book reveals. Also, former Sen. Judd Gregg, who served as Romney’s national co-chairman, felt uninvolved with strategy decisions, blaming his freeze-out on the “egos” of campaign staffers, the authors report. Plus, Romney’s South Carolina team pleaded with the campaign’s national headquarters to drop its focus on social issues in favor of an economic message to steer clear of flip-flopper accusations. The underlying thesis of “The Real Romney” is the most important part of the book: Despite pitching himself as someone who could bring CEO-like leadership and free-market-like efficiencies to politics, Romney exhibited a style ill-suited for the campaign trail, the authors report. The result was a decision-making process that was too slow and plodding for the fast-paced world of politics. Mandy Fletcher, the director of Romney’s Florida campaign, said she had originally been attracted to Romney because “he was the turnaround guy and the business guy.” But she also said that the delays and conflicts in the national campaign’s decision making demonstrated that “running the campaign is a very different kind of business. In the business world you have a lot of time, weeks if not months and, on some projects, years” to make and implement critical decisions. “In the campaign it may be an hour or minutes.” Warren Tompkins, Romney’s senior adviser in South Carolina, came to the same conclusion: “The glaring deficiency in the whole operation was the lack of an overall strategy, no single person that at the end of the day raised his hand and said, ‘This is what we are going to do.’ Somebody has to run the railroad. The irony of it is all is here’s a man who sets up apparatus to make decisions, look at the bottom line, cut to the chase, and the campaign was everything but that.” There are numerous examples of internal staff frictions caused by the management style that Kranish and Helman turn up. They quote Doug Gross, Romney’s 2008 campaign chairman, lamenting, “We had a lot of data but no information” and certainly not the strategy needed to build the coalitions necessary to win the caucuses. They quote Bruce Keough, Romney’s former New Hampshire campaign chairman, as being struck by how duplicative many staff positions were. As he looked around, the problem seemed obvious. It was, as one aide put it, the “Noah’s Ark campaign.” There were two of everything, it seemed, including the competing media teams. The Romney campaign spin had been that the candidate loved the creative tension, but Keough had noticed a change in the candidate’s attitude since the Iowa loss. “Mitt was a little less certain that he had the best campaign that money could buy,” he said. The authors report that Castellanos (perhaps a source for much of the book’s material) contemplated resigning over that Noah’s Ark approach, which was alternatively described as “the Bain way” in reference to the private equity company that Romney had led. The campaign was splitting dangerously into factions, further heightening the state-versus-Boston tension that had been boiling for months. The new media team was on board — [Stuart] Stevens and [Russ] Schriefer — and Castellanos suddenly felt his authority in question. He protested to Romney and members of the inner circle, according to several people with knowledge of the conversations, and was told that this was not a demotion but rather an implementation of “the Bain way,” a reference to Romney’s management style at Bain Capital. Romney said he wanted as many smart minds as possible in the room, with ideas fought over and the best rising to the top. Castellanos considered resigning but, out of loyalty to Romney, agreed to stay.” It’s hardly rare for internal disagreements to plague a candidate’s staff, and certainly not for one filled with high-profile consultants. But Romney and his Bain-way ethos was supposed to bring businesslike order to the process. In “The Real Romney,” his aides declare that perception always outpaced reality and that a business mind-set didn’t lend itself to a campaign setting. Even Romney seemed to acknowledge as much when, as the New Hampshire primary results trickled in, he sent Castellanos an email admitting that he had been wrong to wrangle over the campaign’s theme. “Alex. Well, change was it — just like you said from the beginning,” Romney wrote. “Never found a better word for it. Change it is. And change we will have — soon. Hope for the better … Mitt.” “I never had a strategist,” Romney is quoted as saying at another point in the book. “I had all the pieces of the puzzle but didn’t fit them together.” All of which may explain why Romney is performing much better as a candidate four years later. This time around there was neither a debate over the message — it was Mr. Fix It from the start — nor internal staff competition. He became, in short, a more adept politician. Looking ahead to 2012, Romney concluded that he needed a different kind of campaign. He looked again to his close circle of advisers in Boston, who had learned from their mistakes and grown and changed in the intervening years … In preparation for the second try, Stuart Stevens, who came with years of experience in presidential campaigns, moved to Boston and was empowered as chief strategist. The two bickering media teams of 2008 were reduced to one. After spending $2 million to win Iowa’s straw poll in 2007, Romney would refuse to participate four years later. Instead of spending millions of dollars on early campaign ads, he would hoard his campaign cash. And rather than devoting countless hours to wooing evangelical leaders, he would say that the time for discussing his religion had come and gone. Read Article VI of the Constitution, he would say, quoting it: “No religious test.”

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New Survey Shows Consumers Are Possibly Blind To Economic Realities

January 13, 2012

Still riding the holiday shopping high, Americans are feeling more optimistic about the economy than they have in almost a year, according to data released Friday. Yet with credit card spending on the rise and unemployment still high, it’s unclear whether this cheer is anything more than blissful ignorance. According to the most recent Thomson Reuters-University of Michigan survey, the consumer sentiment index rose to 74 in early January, up from 69.9 in late December, as Dow Jones reported . This is the highest level the index has reached since February 2011. The index, which is calculated bi-monthly, surveys consumers’ assessments about the overall state of the economy, as well as their own personal finance and spending habits. One big reason people may be feeling optimistic is the recent dip in the unemployment rate to 8.5 percent in December . With the new-found security of a paycheck, it’s easy to dream about all the things you will buy. What’s not clear is whether consumers will actually be able to afford these dreams. Unemployment is still high by any standard, and much of last season’s happy holiday purchases were done on credit cards. Consumer borrowing jumped up $20.4 billion in November , the biggest monthly change in 10 years, according to data released Monday by the Federal Reserve. In the upcoming months, it’s possible that bliss will turn sour when bills start arriving. December retail sales were also not spectacular. Overall sales were up only 0.1 percent from November , and usually-sparkling electronics and online stores were some of the lower performing categories. Many of the retailers who did see strong sales in December did so through deep discounting. Such discounts are not likely to continue into the year, leaving even less reason for shoppers to spend money and boost the economy in 2012.

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Starbucks Bans Blonde Jokes

January 13, 2012

Starbucks launched its new, mellower “Blonde” roast this week, and it doesn’t want to hear any baristas sniggering about the name. “We were told at a regional rally there are absolutely no Blonde jokes to be told around the coffee whatsoever. It will be a written offense if so,” a worker writes at Starbucks Gossip.

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Big Bank’s Profit Plunged Last Quarter

January 13, 2012

NEW YORK — JPMorgan Chase’s income fell 23 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 after the bank set aside a large sum for litigation reserves and its investment banking income declined. The largest bank in the nation said Friday it earned $3.7 billion, or 90 cents per share. The results fell short of the 93 cents per share estimated by analysts surveyed by FactSet. Revenue fell 17 percent to $22.2 billion. For the full year, JPMorgan Chase & Co. posted record net income of $19 billion, compared with $17.4 billion in the prior year. The New York bank set aside $528 million for additional litigation charges in the quarter, the latest sign that the banking industry is still dealing with the fallout from poorly-written mortgages from years past. Volatility in stock and bond markets caused by Europe’s debt crisis also hurt JPMorgan’s investment banking business. Fees declined 39 percent to $1.1 billion. Debt underwriting fell 40 percent, and stock underwriting fell 65 percent. JPMorgan also had to book a loss of $567 million loss from an accounting rule that applies to the value of its own corporate debt. Because the value of its debt rose in the fourth quarter, the bank would theoretically have to pay more to buy it back in the open market. When that happens, accounting rules require that the bank record a charge against earnings. Corporate bond prices recovered in the fourth quarter after declining sharply in the third quarter. In another sign that American households are becoming more stable financially, JPMorgan said more credit card customers have been paying their bills on time, leading to lower losses for the bank. JPMorgan was able to take a profit of $730 million by reducing its loan reserves set aside for credit card defaults. That was good news. As the largest bank in the country serving 50 million customers, JPMorgan’s results provide a pulse for how well the U.S. economy is performing. JPMorgan’s stock fell 2.3 percent to $36.01 in pre-market trading.

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Awesome Living: IKEA Courts Parisians With Incredible Apartment Inside Metro

January 11, 2012

For their latest marketing campaign, Swedish furniture company IKEA has built an entire apartment inside a Paris subway station . The apartment currently houses five people who will live in the space from Jan. 9 to 14. Located in Auber station, the stunt aims to show potential customers what they can achieve with IKEA furnishings in a confined space of just 581 square feet, Creativity Online explains . In addition to a time-lapse video of the apartment’s construction , there’s also another YouTube video posted on IKEA France’s Facebook page that documents the five tenants’ first day in their temporary home. This isn’t the first time the famed Swedish brand has invaded the Paris metro. In March 2010, the company decked out subway platforms with IKEA furnishings , according to Freshome.com. And Popsop reminds us the apartment display is remarkably similar to comedian Mark Malkoff’s project where he filmed his experience of living in an IKEA store in Paramus, New Jersey, for six days while his house was fumigated. Now if they could just manage to cook up some of those delicious Swedish meatballs in the subway station, they’d be all set.

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Cause For Celebration: Zuccotti Park Barricades Removed

January 11, 2012

By CHRISTIAN SALAZAR, The Associated Press NEW YORK — Barricades surrounding a park that served as a camp for Occupy Wall Street protesters were removed Tuesday, allowing protesters to stream back in. The atmosphere was celebratory but calm on Tuesday evening as about 300 protesters began filling New York City’s Zuccotti Park a couple of hours after the barricades were taken down and a day after a complaint about the barricades was filed with the city. Protesters milled around, eating lasagna on paper plates and playing chess. Security guards who were previously guarding the barricades stood off to the side, along with a handful of police officers. It was a minor victory for the protesters, who have complained about financial inequality in demonstrations that gained traction across the globe. (CLICK HERE FOR LIVE UPDATES) “Word spread pretty quickly, and we ran down here,” demonstrator Lauren DiGioia said. “It’s hard to remember what it was like before the barricades were put up.” Police spokesman Paul Browne said the NYPD and Brookfield Office Properties, the park’s owner, had been talking about removing the barriers last week. The decision was made to remove them Tuesday because officials felt they were no longer necessary, Browne said. Brookfield spokeswoman Melissa Coley confirmed in an email that the barricades were taken down but declined to comment further. A Brookfield employee who refused to give his name told an Associated Press reporter: “The barriers are down, but the other rules are the same.” Some Occupy protesters planned to stay overnight, DiGioia said, but it was unclear whether they planned to use tents or sleeping bags, which have been banned from the lower Manhattan park since an early morning police raid evicted protesters Nov. 15. One security guard told a group of protesters: “No sleeping bags allowed, either, OK, folks?” Zuccotti Park regulations, stipulated by Brookfield, ban everything from erecting tents or tarps to lying down on benches. Those rules were not enforced until the police raid, and were only made public after protesters began occupying the park on Sept. 17. Until then, the only visible rules posted in the park forbade skateboarding, rollerblading and bicycling. Protester Jeff Brewer said he tried to erect a tent but it was quickly taken down by security guards. “I was still putting in the poles when they showed up,” Brewer said. “Our food is in, our library is up. I think it’s going to be a big celebration for us in the park right now.” On Monday, civil rights groups filed a complaint with the city’s buildings department saying the barricades were a violation of city zoning law because they restricted public access to the space. The New York Civil Liberties Union commended the removal of the barricades in a statement late Tuesday. “We’re pleased the city is finally giving the park back to the people,” said NYCLU Executive Director Donna Lieberman. “We hope Zuccotti Park can now resume its rightful place as a center for meeting and protest in New York City.” Since the eviction, members of the public had only been able to enter the public through two checkpoints at the park that were guarded by police officers or security personnel. The granite plaza near the New York Stock Exchange is one of more than 500 “bonus plazas” in the city: privately owned public parks borne of a little-known compromise struck in 1961 between the city and developers. According to the compromise, in exchange for building a towering skyscraper, developers had to also construct a plaza that would provide “light and air” for passers-by. The bigger the plaza, the taller the building could be. Virtually all bonus plazas are required to be open 24 hours a day, barring a safety issue. They are governed by specific regulations in the zoning law. For example, the law states that the layout of such plazas must promote public use and easy pedestrian circulation throughout the space. The complaint accused the city of failing to enforce the law by allowing the barricades to exist. Buildings department spokesman Tony Sclafani said Monday that inspectors had found no problems at the park. ___ Associated Press writers Meghan Barr and Jennifer Peltz contributed to this report.

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Biden: Obama Will Fight For Middle Class

January 11, 2012

WASHINGTON — Targeting the Republican frontrunner, Vice President Joe Biden told New Hampshire Democrats on Tuesday that President Barack Obama would be an advocate for the middle class, casting Mitt Romney as someone who would side with the wealthy. Biden, in a video conference with party activists, said a recent comment by Romney – “I like being able to fire people” – was “probably taken a little out of context.” But he said Romney “thinks it’s more important for the stockholders and the shareholders and the investors and the venture capital guys to do well than for those employees to be part of the bargain.” Biden, speaking shortly after several news organizations declared Romney the winner of the New Hampshire primary, defended Obama’s record, saying the administration “inherited a mess” and “did what we had to do and we faced in the process an absolutely unified opposition dead set against every single thing we tried to do.” The vice president said the “grand bargain that has allowed the middle class to prosper in the last century has been basically ignored by these guys,” referring to Republicans, “and we have one overarching commitment – to give the middle class a fighting chance.” “The country is ready to move. We just got to clear the brush out of the way here,” Biden told Democrats gathered at local house parties. “The next four years we’re going to have an opportunity to really do the things we came to do and do it without the kind of recalcitrant interference we’ve had.” The vice president was offering a rebuttal to months of criticism from Republicans in New Hampshire, the home of the nation’s first presidential primary. Romney and the GOP presidential field have accused Obama of mishandling the economy, arguing that the president’s policies have made the recession worse. Obama made a similar speech to party loyalists last week on the night of the Iowa caucuses, reviewing the administration’s work to bring home troops from Iraq, sign into law a major health care overhaul and end the “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy on gays in the military. While Obama faces no primary opposition, Democrats were trying to use the New Hampshire primary to build their campaign organization and recruit new volunteers. New Hampshire was a roadblock to Obama’s nomination four years ago, when he was defeated by Hillary Rodham Clinton in the state’s primary after winning Iowa’s leadoff caucuses. Obama carried New Hampshire in the 2008 election, but the state is expected to be heavily contested in the fall. Obama’s campaign has opened seven offices in New Hampshire, more than the leading Republican contenders, and held more than 500 events since the president announced his re-election campaign. Biden has made six trips to New Hampshire since the Obama inauguration, including separate trips last October and November to promote the president’s jobs bill. He has not ruled out a potential presidential campaign in 2016.

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