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(MENAFN) The Indian Commerce Ministry said that during the coming 4 years, India and Iran plan to boost annual bilateral trade to USD25 billion, reported Tehran Times. The ministry added that …

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India, Iran to boost bilateral trade to USD25b

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Olivier Blanchard: Driving the Global Economy with the Brakes On

by Olivier Blanchard on January 24, 2012

Huffington Post…

After the speech by the IMF’s Managing Director in Berlin yesterday , my main messages on the global outlook will not surprise you. Starting with the bad news — the world recovery, which was weak in the first place, is in danger of stalling. The epicenter of the danger is Europe, but the rest of the world is increasingly affected. There is an even greater danger, namely that the European crisis intensifies. In this case, the world could be plunged into another recession. Turning to the good news — with the right set of measures, the worst can definitely be avoided, and the recovery can be put back on track. These measures can be taken, need to be taken, and need to be taken urgently. And now the numbers, starting at the epicenter: The IMF’s forecast for growth in Euro Area for 2012 is ‑0.5 percent — this marks a decrease of 1.6 percentage points relative to our September 2011 projection. In particular, we predict negative growth in Italy (‑2.2 percent) and Spain (‑1.7 percent). We have also revised downwards our forecasts for other advanced countries, although by less. Only for the United States, is our forecast unchanged at 1.8 percent. The growth outlook in emerging and developing countries is also down, at 5.4 percent, a decrease of 0.7 percent relative to our September forecast. The revision is particularly sharp in Central and Eastern Europe, reflecting their links to the Euro area. But it is also substantial in China and India, where internal factors explain most of the decrease. What are the forces behind these numbers? Most advanced economies are operating with two major brakes on. The first is fiscal consolidation . Consolidation is necessary — debt levels are very high — but, in the short run, it is clearly a drag on demand, it is a drag on growth. The second is tight credit . In many countries, particularly in Europe, banks are still weak. They are deleveraging. And, in many cases, deleveraging means tighter credit to households or firms, another drag on growth. With those brakes on, the recovery cannot be very strong, and indeed this is something you see in past financial crises. What is happening in Europe, however, is making things worse. Doubts about fiscal sustainability are leading to high yields on sovereign bonds and, in turn, doubts about bank solvency. To reassure markets, governments have felt they had to consolidate further. To reassure investors, banks have deleveraged and tightened credit. Both actions have further decreased growth, leading to a dangerous downward spiral. This explains our forecasts of negative growth for some of the Euro periphery countries, and low growth in the rest of the Euro area. Looking beyond Europe, spillovers through trade are already visible among Euro trade partners. And bouts of risk aversion and uncertainty are leading to high volatility of capital flows to emerging markets. If not contained, this downward spiral can lead to even worse outcomes, be it disorderly default or Euro exit, with major spillovers, first to the rest of the Euro area, and then to the rest of the world. In this context, the required policies are clear. These are largely a repeat of the main messages from the Managing Director Christine Lagarde’s speech yesterday . First, fiscal consolidation must proceed, but at an appropriate pace. Decreasing debt is a marathon, not a sprint. Going too fast will kill growth, and further derail the recovery. It took more than two decades to successfully decrease debt from its World War II heights. We should expect that it may take as long or longer this time. Of the essence here is a credible medium term plan, something still missing in the United States and Japan. Once such a plan is in place, in most countries, automatic stabilizers should be left to play. In some countries, slower consolidation may even be appropriate. Second, a credit crunch must be avoided. Where banks need to increase their capital ratios, they should do it through an increase in capital, rather than a decrease in credit. Recapitalization through public funds will help credit, sustain activity, and may actually improve the fiscal outlook. Third, and to the extent that they are taking the tough measures they need to take, Euro periphery countries — such as Italy or Spain — must be able to borrow at low interest rates. As many investors have left the market and are unlikely to return soon, public liquidity provision may be needed. It can be provided in various ways, by the European Central Bank, by the European Union, and by the IMF. Whichever combination is used, the available funds must be large enough to maintain low interest rates and fiscal sustainability. Our forecasts are based on the assumption that these measures will be adopted, and the euro crisis will slowly decrease in intensity. If they are not, one can fear the worst. If they are adopted decisively, the world economy may perform better than our forecast. One should be under no illusion however. Even then, the brakes will still be on, and unemployment will decrease only slowly. We have a long way to go before the world economy has fully recovered. From iMFdirect blog

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Olivier Blanchard: Driving the Global Economy with the Brakes On

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India’s Maruti Suzuki posts 63.3% plunge in Q3 profit

January 23, 2012

(MENAFN) India’s Maruti Suzuki said that in the third quarter, the firm’s net profit declined 63.3 percent, to USD40.93 million, reported Reuters. The country’s biggest automaker added that the …

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Indian economy to grow 7% this year

January 9, 2012

(MENAFN – Saudi Press Agency) India’s economy will grow by 7 per cent this fiscal year, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said Sunday, and was geared to return to a higher growth rate of 9 to 10 per …

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Does American Weight Gain Negate Improved Fuel Economy?

January 1, 2012

From Jim Motavalli and Mother Nature Network: ” Welcome to Wendy’s , how may I help you?” If you replied, “Make mine the Triple Baconator Combo Meal with small fries and a small Coke,” you’ve just agreed to pack on 1,850 calories, 106 grams of fat (43 of them saturated) and 2,780 milligrams of sodium. And we wonder why Americans are so fat. That calorie count was from a new book, ” 10 Worst Fast Food Meals in America ,” and you’d do no better with the Large Triple Whopper with Cheese Value Meal (with fries!) from Burger King (1,790 calories). It’s no wonder that, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , the average American male between 20 and 74 has a 39-inch waist and weighs 194.7 pounds (up 28.4 since 1960). The news isn’t much better for women: They weigh in at 164.7 now (with a 37-inch waist). As Automotive News (subscription required) recently noted , there’s a car angle to this. Automakers are bending over backwards to reduce the weight of their cars, using lightweight steel and carbon fiber whenever possible. It’s the quickest way to improve fuel economy. Ford cut 30 pounds from the automatic transmission in the Focus. The Chevy Cruze and the Hyundai Elantra have even done away with the spare tire. “But while engineers are removing one spare tire, their customers and passengers have each been adding one of their own,” writes columnist Larry Vellequette. It’s simple math: If the car loses 30 pounds, but the driver gains the same amount, we’re left with a wash in terms of fuel economy. With two big and talls in the car, you’re losing ground. The auto industry’s focus on losing weight is a welcome change . According to Christopher Knittel of the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis, “From 1980 to 2004, the average fuel economy of the U.S. new passenger automobile increased by less than 6.5 percent. During this time, the average horsepower of new passenger cars increased by 80 percent, while the average curb weight increased by 12 percent.” That’s awful. And, he adds, “[I]f weight, horsepower and torque were held at their 1980 levels, fuel economy for both passenger cars and light trucks could have increased by nearly 50 percent from 1980 to 2006; this is in stark contrast to the 15 percent by which fuel economy actually increased.” OK, so now we have the cars losing weight and people gaining. Well, they were gaining back then, too, but all that extra poundage is cumulative. Now, here’s where the cars and calories thing comes together. As the Los Angeles Times reports , “A new study finds that living in an area populated by fast-food restaurants and not having a car may make your weight climb.” This is sociology writ large: poverty equals pounds. Talk about a vicious circle. In this case, fast-food proximity erases the undeniable benefit of walking. The heavyweights making the springs sag down will actually melt some of the fat away through the very act of owning a car. The report, based on data from 2,156 adults in the Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Study database and first reported in the Journal of Urban Health, reveals that car owners on average weighed 8.5 pounds more than pedestrians. But when those same non-car-owners lived in “lower middle socioeconomic status areas,” i.e., poor, neighborhoods, they weighed 12 pounds more than people living there with cars. Why is that? Because without a car you can’t drive to the affordable grocery stores that are usually located elsewhere, but you can walk to conveniently located Denny’s, Burger King and McDonalds. This is kind of obvious, but the study’s authors write, “Car ownership may reduce the local effect of fast-food outlets in the neighborhood, while lack of car access tends to exacerbate it.” The solution to all of this is either healthy fast food (fat chance of that!) or cheap green cars, so the urban poor can buy rides to take them food shopping. That would also help extend hybrid and electric vehicle ownership beyond the affluent early adopters to a broad — and I do mean broad — cross-section of all Americans. Here’s Natalie to give you the skinny on some popular fast-food choices. She’s a bit preachy, but she gets the job done:

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Big Year Awaits In Atlantic City

January 1, 2012

ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. — You know that all-in moment, when you push most of your pile of chips out onto the table, and wait to see where the little white ball lands, or which card flips from the deck, to know whether you’re a winner or a big loser? 2012 is looking a lot like that for Atlantic City. Pummeled by a five-year losing streak brought on by unrelenting competition from casinos in neighboring states and worsened by the sluggish economy, Atlantic City is anxious for the new year to arrive, and with it, the $2.4 billion Revel casino-hotel that should bring new gamblers and new money to the resort. Hard Rock International expects to break ground for its own new smaller “boutique” casino at the opposite end of the Boardwalk, and this will be the first full year that Gov. Chris Christie’s Atlantic City rescue plan – including state supervision of safety, cleanliness and planning in the casino and shopping zones – will be in place. Yet pitfalls lurk as well: the ramping up of New York City’s Aqueduct casino, the continuing financial fragility of the casino formerly known as the Atlantic City Hilton, which has only committed to stay in business through Halloween, and the almost inevitable psychological blow of Pennsylvania passing Atlantic City to become the nation’s second-largest gambling resort in terms of revenues, which should happen sometime in 2012. “It’s a crucial year,” said Tony Rodio, president of the Tropicana Casino and Resort. “I think it’s the beginning of a turnaround; I really do.” The opening of Revel, set for May 15 but likely to happen sooner than that, will be the best thing that has happened to Atlantic City since the Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa opened in 2003. The resort will likely be Atlantic City’s last huge casino-hotel for quite some time. CEO Kevin DeSanctis said Atlantic City should not look at his project as the savior of the city – though that’s exactly how many are viewing it. “Revel is not a silver bullet. That’s never what we set out to be, or frankly, what we are now,” he said. “Revel is another tool in the toolbox for Atlantic City to be successful. We’re adding product to a market that desperately needs it. This market needs to re-establish itself as a regional destination. We will give people another reason to give Atlantic City another try. “I hear people say, `I don’t go to Atlantic City; I go to the Borgata,’ ” DeSanctis said. “That’s clearly a problem. When we open, it will help expand that to `Borgata and Revel.’ As other folks put a little more capital investment into their properties, that will have a positive effect.” Christie wants that to happen, too, and he thinks many casinos will be forced to follow Revel’s lead. “It is an extraordinary facility and it is going to draw tens of thousands of people to Atlantic City just to see it,” the governor said. “And when they do get there, I hope what they’re going to find is a cleaner, a safer Atlantic City. I’m anticipating 2012 to be a comeback year for Atlantic City. “Now it has been on the decline for years so we are not going to come back entirely in 2012, so let’s set appropriate expectations here,” Christie said. “But I think you should start to see a turnaround.” Revel will add 5,000 full-time jobs to a market desperate for them, and has put thousands of construction workers to work at a time when little else was being built. The casino-hotel also plans to make an aggressive play for conventions and group meetings, and will have a 5,000-seat concert hall capable of attracting the biggest names in entertainment. A big question leading up to Revel’s opening has been whether the mega-resort will bring new business to Atlantic City, or merely siphon it off from existing casinos who can ill afford to lose any customers. DeSanctis expects some combination of the two to occur. Michael Pollock, managing director of Spectrum Gaming Group, an Atlantic City-area casino consulting firm, said it would not be surprising to see one or two casinos have to close in 2012 due to the cutthroat competition in the industry amid a still-weak economy. ACH, the casino formerly known as the Atlantic City Hilton, appears to be on the shakiest ground. In November, state regulators approved a plan for the casino to stay open with a fresh infusion of capital from its owners, Los Angeles hedge fund Colony Capital LLC, and a cancellation of its debt. But the casino has committed to staying open only through the end of October, and it’s going after the smallest of small fish in a market that prizes whales. It recently got permission to use table game gambling chips worth as little as 25 cents – the first time Atlantic City has let any casino use a chip worth less than $1. Resorts Casino Hotel also has yet to turn a profit in the first year of new ownership, although it expects to at least break even by the end of 2012. Atlantic City’s casino revenue peaked in 2006 at $5.2 billion; it has since fallen to $3.6 billion at the end of 2010, mostly due to casinos opening in neighboring Pennsylvania and New York, and the poor economy. Many expect revenues for 2011 to be in the range of $3.2 billion. Atlantic City desperately needs new money, Pollock says. “The spigot had been turned off on new capital investment and it’s crucial that that spigot get turned back on again,” he said. “Atlantic City was on its way toward reinventing itself with a new business model” when the bottom fell out of the economy. The Seminole Indians, through their Hard Rock franchise, say they are ready to do just that. They plan to break ground by July 15 on Atlantic City’s first so-called “boutique casino,” a smaller, less expensive gambling hall authorized under a pilot program to jump-start the stagnant casino market here. The first phase of the project, with 208 hotel rooms. will cost about $465 million, and eventually grow to 850 rooms. New Jersey’s state government adopted a number of reforms for Atlantic City in 2011 that will have the chance to bear fruit in 2012. It beefed up the Casino Reinvestment Development Authority and put it in charge of revitalizing the resort, including making sure its streets are clean and safe. But the reform likely to have the most immediate impact is the formation of the Atlantic City Alliance, a private casino-financed nonprofit corporation that will spend $30 million a year for the next five years to promote Atlantic City to the rest of the world. That’s money the casinos were required to pony up to the state’s racetracks in return for keeping slot machines out of racetracks, until Christie intervened and killed the arrangement, much to the delight of the casinos. “What did Revel do in its first year, and what did we do with the $30 million we suddenly had at our disposal to market Atlantic City?” said Rodio, the Tropicana president. “That’s what we’ll be debating next New Year’s Eve.” ___ Associated Press writer Beth DeFalco in Trenton contributed to this report. ___

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China To Limit Exports Of Materials Essential To Smartphone Makers

December 28, 2011

BEIJING — China announced a cut Tuesday in its rare earths export quota as it tries to shore up sagging prices for the exotic metals used in mobile phones and other high-tech goods. China accounts for 97 percent of rare earth output and its 2009 decision to curb exports while it builds up an industry to create products made with them alarmed foreign companies that depend on Chinese supplies. In its latest quota, the Commerce Ministry said exporters will be allowed to sell 10,546 tons of rare earths in the first half of 2012. That is a 27 percent reduction from the quota for the first half of 2011. China’s export restrictions have strained relations with the United States the European Union, Japan and other governments that have called on Beijing to remove its curbs and make its intentions clear. Despite production and expor curbs, rare earths prices in China have tumbled as U.S. and European economic woes dent demand for its exports. The government ordered its biggest producer to suspend output for a month in October to shore up prices. But the restrictions have made rare earths much mor expensive abroad, giving Chinese makers of products that use them a price advantage and foreign manufacturers an incentive to shift operations to China. In a sign of unusually weak demand, the Commerce Ministry said actual Chinese exports of rare earths in 2011 totaled 14,750 tons for the first 11 months of 2011 – the equivalent of just 49 percent of the total annual quota. In another possible move to tighten control over exports, the ministry’s announcement Tuesday said only 11 companies will be allowed to sell abroad. That is down from 26 companies given licences for the first half of 2011. Rare earths are 17 elements including cerium, dysprosium and lanthanum that are used in manufacturing flat-screen TVs, batteries for electric cars and wind turbines. They also used in some high-tech weapons. The United States, Canada and Australia also have rare earths but stopped mining them in the 1990s as lower-cost Chinese ores flooded the market. Surging demand has prompted ccompanies in Canada, California, India, Malaysia, Russia and other other countries to develop rare earths mines, some of which are expected to start producing by 2015. Prices in China have fallen sharply since August, declining by 45 percent for neodymium oxide, by 33 percent for terbium oxide and by 31 percent for lanthanum oxide, according to Lynas Corp., an Australian rare earths producer. Its figures showed an equally striking gap between prices in China and abroad, with lanthanum oxide costing triple the Chinese level on global markets, neodymium more than twice as much and terbium oxide near twice as much.

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Multibillionaire To Shake Up Fast Food Industry

December 12, 2011

Reliance Industries became India’s biggest company by fueling the subcontinent’s cars and homes with oil and gas. But for its next venture, the $50 billion conglomerate has its sights set on another kind of energy altogether: fast food. According to The Economic Times , Reliance, which is headed by multibillionaire Mukesh Ambani , is gearing up to launch a new chain of fast food restaurants for Indian consumers within the next year. Reliance Industries has recruited Rishi Negi, the COO of movie theater company Fame Indian and a former Pizza Hut India executive, to develop and run the new fast food brand. Sources close to Reliance have said that the chain’s style of food has yet to be determined. But the business model is said to be based on companies like McDonald’s, with a standardized menu and hopes of national domination. Sources have said that delivery will be a key part of the chain’s revenue model. The Indian fast food sector has been growing quickly over the past few years. But India, as compared to China and Russia, whose industries have also experienced rapid expansion, has been relatively slower to warm up to international fast food chains. For example, Yum Brands, the owner of KFC, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut has been hugely successful in China for more than a decade, but just launched an independent Indian division a few weeks ago. But if the Indian fast food market is in some ways an unusually difficult one, Reliance’s new entrant will also have some unusual advantages. The chain will be a subsidiary of Reliance Retail , which has already become a major player in Indian consumer goods since its founding in 2006, and so knows the market well. And Ambani has demonstrated time and time again that he the resources and willpower to commit to projects that others would balk at. He’s the world’s ninth-richest man, with a net worth estimated at $22 billion . In America, he is best known for having built the world’s most expensive private residence, a 27-story skyscraper in downtown Mumbai. Although let’s hope for his sake that the fast food company pleases him more than the house: reports have said that Ambani has yet to move his family into the tower , more than a year after the building’s construction, because it does not comply with traditional Indian beliefs about architecture.

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Tom Silva: Made in America?

September 9, 2011

I’ve been hearing the phrase “Made in America” quite a bit recently, welcoming the repatriation of jobs back to the US from China, India and the rest of the off-shore parabola. Most reports have focused on the price of oil being the primary driver, but the return of outsourced jobs is far more sweeping in its implications. Make no mistake, outsourcing will continue: One report estimates that the global outsourcing industry will rise to just under $500 billion by 2016. However, it seems clear that three decades after offshoring emerged as the best way for Corporate America to lower its breakeven cost of doing business, we are now seeing a reverse migration, primarily because the fallacies of low-cost labor markets have been exposed. It’s a function not only of rising production costs, but a flight from unregulated overseas markets where companies have found that they cannot assert their rights to quality control and intellectual property. (Let’s consider this the next time we hear the canard that “All regulation is bad because it puts business in a stranglehold.” Ironically, regulation can be a magnet for business). To deal briefly with cost, it is irrefutable that companies have circumnavigated their operations back to the US because overseas workers are becoming more expensive : According to a recent report by Boston Consulting Group , in 2000, hourly Chinese manufacturing wages were just 52 cents compared to $16.61 in the U.S. By 2015, the wage difference should be $4.41 vs. $26.06 — hardly parity, but no longer a slam-dunk case when you consider that US workers are three times more productive. The income growth rate is expected to continue to build in China while BCG predicts the US will grow at a much slower pace. Oil prices compounded this spike in the cost of outsourcing: During the last run up in oil prices prior to the financial crisis in 2008, investment bank CIBC calculated that a $1 rise in world oil prices translated to a 1% rise in transport costs. With oil around $120 a barrel, the cost of shipping a 40-foot container from Shanghai to the U.S. Eastern seaboard jumped to $8,000 from $3,000 in 2000. “At $20 a barrel for oil, transport costs were equivalent to U.S. tariffs of just 3%,” CIBC wrote. But today’s $150 barrel oil realities imply tariffs of 11%, harkening back to the average tariffs of the 1970s. In the last four years, shipping costs have risen 71% because of higher oil prices, as well as cutbacks in ships and containers, according to IHS Global Insight. While the discussion of energy costs has focused on the economics of transportation, more interesting are the infrastructure weaknesses that the staggering growth rates in countries like China have exposed. According to Trevor Houser from economic research firm, The Rhodium Group, electricity costs have skyrocketed: 6.1 cents per kilowatt hour in 2001 (when they first joined the World Trade Organization) to 11.6 cents per kWh and climbing. In contrast, the U.S. has only risen from 4.73 to 6.7 in that same time period.Rolling blackouts (a news-worthy rarity in America) are common overseas. You simply can’t maintain full speed when you’re operating with an antiquated engine. Then there’s that large unwieldy relay, the Global Supply Chain, shuttling the latest cool product from factory to fan base. Accenture recently found in their study of 287 businesses that “Companies are beginning to realize that having offshored much of their manufacturing and supply operations away from their demand locations [has] hurt their ability to meet their customers’ expectations across a wide spectrum of areas, such as being able to rapidly meet increasing customer desires for unique products, continuing to maintain rapid delivery/response times, as well as maintaining low inventories and competitive total costs.” Simply put, if you’re a TV manufacturer and Best Buy calls to request more beveled-edge titanium flat screens for next month, you can’t fill the order because the factory in Shenzhen wouldn’t be able to build and ship them fast enough to beat your locally-based competitor. Practically half the participants in the same survey reported crippling issues with production cycle delays, while 46 percent face quality control fallout from overseas manufacturing and supply. Additionally, global supply chains have been bedeviled by the shift in weather patterns and the spate of natural disasters. The March earthquake and tsunami in Japan, aside from the human tragedy, disrupted global supply chains, leaving many companies stranded without critical components, including Boeing, Caterpillar, and General Motors. Quality also presents a significant issue, more difficult to address when your delivery chain resembles the hub and spokes of a bicycle: If a problem is discovered in parts reaching customers in the United States, the fault could occur anywhere on the supply chain stretching all the way across continents. That makes the true cost of manufacturing offshore in places such as China much more than the quoted price of the parts on the RFQ. One of the rudest awakenings for American companies about the realities of outsourcing has been around the issue of intellectual property and piracy. Having grown up in a part of the world where every video was a third-generation knock-off encased in a photocopied sleeve, I’ve always been stunned at the ingenuity, rapacity and speed of the black market. It’s difficult, if not impossible, to enforce patents, copyrights, and other laws in many parts of the world. Take Farouk Systems Inc of Houston, Texas. A manufacturer of high-demand luxury hair care implements, company founder Farouk Shami contracted with a Chinese molding company, only to find that his designs were being pilfere d and his CHI products counterfeited. Shami fought for several years to no avail. His struggle with the Asian Black Market reads like Hercules battling a modern-day Hydra. As soon as one was shuttered, another operation would spring forth, ” sometimes right next door to the first one”. This painful lesson in international production cost him half a million dollars per month in customer service, replacing badly made irons and dryers bearing his brand name. Eyes opened, he has returned his production stateside, employing custom injection molders in his home state, leveraging high-volume, long-term contracts to receive impeccable U.S. quality, for about the same pricing that initially lured him to China. “You don’t have laws in China that will protect you against IP theft,” adds Rick Admani Abulhaj, COO of Diagnostic Devices Inc. of Charlotte, North Carolina. “We have a lot of investment in our IP, and we have more control over it in the U.S.” As a producer of blood -glucose machines, on which thousands of lives depend, he also believes strongly in the quality control advantage of U.S. production. “We have to adhere to FDA regulations,” he says. “When you make products in the U.S., you make them to a higher standard; particularly in healthcare, the FDA is the law. If you don’t comply, you get your products recalled. In China there are no ramifications.” So, the mishegoss that is the overseas market means that all those sorely needed production jobs are coming back home for Christmas, right? Not entirely. Consider how all this started in the first place: The landscape of the American economy was forever altered in 1948 under the aegis of the Marshall Plan. Prior to that, America was a self-supporting system: We made what we used. But in order to help restore war-ravaged Europe and Asia, manufacturing was shifted abroad. By the Reagan era, manufacturing employed only 25 percent of U.S. labor force. We have since fallen to a mere 12 percent. Something has definitely changed in the paradigm since the 1940′s, namely this: the key to domestic manufacturing isn’t so much labor as automation . The numbers tell the story emphatically: While manufacturing as a percentage of the labor force has nearly halved since 1980, the value of goods and services produced has remained static. Here’ the kicker: Based on first-quarter GDP, we produced slightly more goods and services locally than before the recession — but utilizing 7.3 million fewer workers. Factory output is 55 percent higher than a decade ago, while factory employment is 32 percent lower. The jobs that remain typically require sophisticated skills and higher education than the average laborer of the past. (Translation: Companies can produce more with fewer workers using new machinery operated by college-accredited workers.) American factories have recouped nearly all of their losses since the crisis, and are now back at nearly full productivity — employing a skeleton crew. Corporations are sitting on about $1.8 trillion in cash, buoyed by record profits and stock prices which have doubled from their recession lows. It is evident that there is no longer a strict correlation between hiring and corporate revenues. The future is shaping up to look like this: labor-intensive low-cost things will continue to be made overseas. America, on the other hand, will continue to excel at making big, complex, expensive items. In the late 1990s, America’s manufacturing stagnated at the $4 trillion mark. But then we found our niche — in tractors, steel, plastics, knives and medicines. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, manufacturing hit a record $5 trillion in 2006 — and heavy machinery was where it was at. Today, mining, farm and construction equipment are up 20 percent since 2002. Revenue from coal products and refinery activity nearly doubled during that self-same period. The business of refining and processing raw materials (iron, steel, aluminum and copper) has increased 40 percent. Chemical manufacturing, notably pharmaceuticals, grew 22 percent. We also do well in plastics, software and telecommunications. The Specialty Blades factory in Staunton, VA makes blades that impact all aspects of our lives, from scalpels in the emergency room to the little gadgets that tear off our grocery receipts. The company’s rank and file aren’t unskilled factory workers but engineers, working with surgeons to create a plethora of sophisticated tools, including a circular cutting and stapling device which reduces the invasiveness of digestive-tract surgery. “U.S. engineering is flat-out way more developed than in China for this function,” says the company’s CEO, Peter Harris. In July 2008, Deloitte published Made in North America , taking a C-level look at U.S. production. When the 321 executive participants were asked where they intended to expand production, 37 percent said Mexico, while another 37 percent indicated China would grow as their hub of operations. Similarly, India and Canada drew equal favor with 24 percent apiece. How did the United States fare? 44 percent. While that’s great news for production, it’s not nearly as auspicious for employment, as these factories may be staffed by robotics rather than real people. Some have cited the need for the innovation economy to fill the void left by traditional manufacturing, particularly in the science, technology, engineering and math fields (STEM). However, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics qualified the 97 categories of STEM, it reflected only 6% of the ready US workforce. In the end, what we need is a game-changer — disruptive technology like the internet — to drive the employment sector. We all know that Made in America is still a good thing. A great thing. It just doesn’t mean what it used to. **************************************************************************************************************** Special thanks to contributions from co-author, Heather M. Carper . Heather is a Chicago-based Writer, Researcher, and Social Media strategist, who is currently outsourcing some of her finely honed American-made skillset to meet the needs of the primarily South Asian clients of the Indo-American Center .

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Diane Francis: The Great Markdown of Western Living Standards

September 2, 2011

It looks like gold will hit $2,011 an ounce in 2011 as the permanent drop in Western living standards continues apace. This economic “markdown” started in 2008 when America hit the wall and deepened again in 2010 after Europe’s crisis. But this summer, another, deeper one is underway: The financial tourniquets aren’t holding and now major amputation is being performed. The “markdown,” to be brutal, means chronic unemployment as public debt costs devour government budgets and more taxes eat up job-creating capital. There’s also the demographic markdown: Aging populations don’t consume as much and well-paying American or European jobs will be filled by robots or, alternatively, five cheap, younger workers in Asia. Americans, Europeans and the rest of us will just have to work longer for less to a riper age. We will benefit from fewer government goodies and our kids may have to teach English in Asia or, better yet, become engineers and build nuclear reactors or highways over there. The rest who stay put will continue to be partially subsidized by their parents or governments or find themselves living like Argentinians. It’s grim, but not as bad as what Europe is in for, the continent of the 32-hour week, six week holiday and freedom 55. The big news a few weeks ago was that gold hit new highs and markets plummeted because Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Nicolas Sarkozy met to do nothing. Markets dumped Euro banks, the minute the shorts found a way to get around the ban on shorting these banks. In the worst shape is Commerz Bank, which faces a writedown higher than its market cap, according to Egan-Jones Rating Agency in New York City, the only rating agency that doesn’t take payments from those it’s rating. Worse yet, its president, Sean Egan, told CNBC that the total cost of fixing Europe’s basketcase sovereigns and banks would be six trillion euros, more like three trillion because they’ll all take a 50 percent haircut. Little wonder the Merkel and Sarko tent folded and went away. They do nothing because they cannot do anything except postpone and pray. “It’s the end of the road,” said Egan. “Germany’s total sovereign debt is already 1.4 trillion Euros which is 78 percent debt to GDP. Germany cannot do this alone, so all the Europeans will have to.” So in a weird way, this means markets are working and the collapse is the arithmetic revaluation in anticipation of a continental workout. This fix will involve dumping money into Europe’s central bank, dumping money into banks that loan to Greece et al, which will wipe out shareholders and guaranteeing deposits to avoid the collapse of Greek and other banks. But there is one other prescription, which is why markets are jamming gold higher — the Europeans will have to print money or, as the central bankers euphemistically call it, quantitatively ease. This is inflation by any other name, a thief in the night against the rest of us, and what the U.S. has done twice. So we will go from America’s QE1 and QE2 to Europe’s QEE1 and eventually QEE2 and 3. On second thought, the U.S. will be sucked into the European mess so there will possibly be a QE3 too. “Gold is the world’s default currency,” says Maison Placements analyst John Ing, whose $2,100-an-ounce forecast a while ago is looking smart. Unfortunately, it will be too low should there be a QE3 and QEE3. And the Americans still are not out of the woods either unless they bite the bullet, he added. “The easy credit of yesteryear spawned the financial crises of today. America is simply  over‐housed and stretched financially. The heart of the problem is that it is spending 25 percent of its GDP yet raises less than 15 percent in taxes.” And Europe’s worse. So this means that markets will continue to correct and politicians will be left to react and undertake damage control to more slowly stretch out the lowering of living standards that are irreversibly taking place. In the U.S., Republicans will propose, again, draconian spending cuts to avoid raising taxes, and the Democrats will go for a moderate dose of both. Neither are right. This simply about arguing over what chairs go where on the Titanic. In Europe, the German strategy will be to demand that spendthrift countries dismantle their entitlements and raise taxes, and the French will play for time, or until after the next French election, even though time’s run out. So for investors, it’s a flight to quality and safety and investing in solid corporations and countries, U.S. T-bills or in the asset class for the confused and/or frightened, which is gold. Still others buy the shiny stuff in the hopes that it will become part of the solution and, because it’s finite and cannot be printed, will impose discipline on everyone, instead of remaining a symptom of the problem. World Bank President Robert Zoellick gave credence to that debate last fall when he suggested a system that would involve the dollar, euro, yen and renminbi with gold as a reference point to keep every one honest. It’s inevitable because this isn’t working. From Diane Francis’s blog at “Financial Post.”

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Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar: Indian Untouchables Become Millionaires

September 1, 2011

It is now the 20th anniversary of economic reforms that converted India into a miracle economy, growing at 8 percent per year in the last decade. Critics complain that this has benefited only a few upper-crust millionaires, bypassing poorer groups. This is simply wrong. The poorest, lowest of all Hindu castes — once called untouchables and now called dalits (meaning the oppressed) — have started spawning millionaires too. The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) is India’s oldest business chamber. Dalits have now set up a Dalit India Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DICCI). This is no more than a start: dalits continue to remain at the bottom of the social and income ladders. But at long last some have ceased to be objects of pity and become objects of envy. Many dalit entrepreneurs came from the lower middle class, got a decent education, and then made good. But others came from laborer families, and their rise is especially heartening. Ratibhai Makwana’s father, once a farm labourer, later made leather pickers, used in textile machinery. Dalits have traditionally had the dirty task of disposing of dead animals, and in the process have become leather workers. Ratibhai greatly expanded his father’s small business by getting into plastic intermediates. His family now runs a sugar mill in Uganda and plans a cement plant there too. His revenues exceed $80 million a year. Sanjay Khsirsagar came from a lower middle class dalit family. His first venture was in high-end sound equipment. Later he created a construction company, APA Infraventure, which has become big in Mumbai slum redevelopment. He is now building himself a penthouse by redeveloping the very slum he grew up in. Bhagwan Gawai once worked alongside his father as a construction worker. But he got a decent education and joined a government oil company, HPCL. He was not well treated there, and successfully sued the company for caste discrimination. His lucky break came when he was posted in Dubai by HPCL. There he developed new contacts, and started a plastics trading business with Arab partners. This business now has a turnover of $20 million. Ashok Khade’s father was a cobbler, working under a tree in Mumbai. Ashok went to college, and then joined a government company building offshore platforms, Mazagon Docks. He acquired skills in offshore maintenance and construction. Today his company DAS Offshore is a major offshore services company, and he now plans a jetty fabrication yard that will employ 2,500 workers. Sushil Patil, another son of a laborer, was lucky enough to go to college (which waived his last year’s fees). Bitten by the entrepreneurial bug, he started several ventures, all which failed. Yet he persevered, and ultimately struck gold by setting up a construction company, IEPC. This now has revenues of $ 65 million. Another dalit , Balu, made good after much travail with a soldering equipment business. He says 32 girls in a row rejected him as a marriage partner because of his poor prospects! He claims many dalit businessmen still hide their caste name to avoid discrimination. In all these cases, education helped dalits rise. But rural government schools are pathetically substandard, leaving most dalits barely literate. Even so, they have made astonishing strides, according to a seminal study by University of Pennsylvania Prof. Devesh Kapur and others. This study looked at dalit outcomes over the last 20 years in sub-districts of west and east Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest state. The proportion of dalits owning their own business was up from 6% to 36.7% in the west, and from 4.2% to 11% in the east. The proportion in non-traditional occupations (like tailors, masons etc) was up from 14% to 37% in the east, and from 9.3% to 42% in the west. Political parties have long promoted government job reservations for dalits as the way to social progress. Yet, the study shows the proportion of dalits in government jobs in Uttar Pradesh has actually fallen from 7.2% to 6.8% in the east, and risen marginally from 5% to 7.3% in the west. Clearly, job reservation has not driven the state’s social and economic revolution. The main drivers have been the new opportunities arising from economic reforms, plus the rise of dalit politician Mayawati. She has been Chief Minister of the state four times in the last two decades, and done much to raise their status and reduce historical discrimination against them. Critics complain that India’s economic reforms have created new inequalities. They may even criticize the rise of dalit millionaires as a new sort of inequality. Nonsense. Viva la such inequality!

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Peter Navarro and Greg Autry: Aircraft Carrier? What Aircraft Carrier? Oh, That Aircraft Carrier!

August 16, 2011

China’s first aircraft carrier recently slipped from its berth with little fan fare. The start of sea trials of the 1,000 foot long flattop gained little media attention in an America that is, as usual, too caught up in its own angst to notice external threats. While financial markets boiled, the ship formerly known as the Varyag and rumored to have been rechristened “Shi Lang” sailed out of Dalian harbor to test its battle systems and scare the hell of out China’s neighbors. The story behind this boat is both entertaining and highly instructive in the ways of Chinese state capitalism and its political and business norms. The Varyag was originally intended to be the pride of the Soviet fleet and was nearly complete when the collapse of that other evil empire resulted in its abandonment at a Black Sea berth. In 1998, she was auctioned off by the Ukrainian government to a subsidiary of a Hong Kong front company, secretly controlled by the Chinese military. Although China assured the world that the carrier would become a floating casino in Macau, America’s NATO ally, Turkey originally blocked the lethal vessel’s transit through the Bosphorus and the giant ship was towed in circles for more than a year. This provoked Yang Wenchang, the Chinese deputy foreign minister and other high level Chinese government officials to fly to Ankara with a reported $360 million “economic aid package” and a profitable tourism deal which secured the Varyag’s China passage. The whole project was a rather stupendous investment of capital and political muscle into what China continued to assert was a casino project. Of course, the warship never went anywhere near Maccau, and instead was sent directly to a special dock in China’s Dalian harbor where it began years of extensive retrofitting with the installation of a new propulsion system, flight decks, and electronics systems. While sticking to the casino story, China negotiated to purchase a number of Russian Sukhoi, SU-33 carrier ready aircraft — pretty odd investment for a nation with no carrier. Then, in its typical fashion, Beijing backstabbed its partner in state capitalism by committing to only a couple of planes in order to copy their design. When China announced the “new” J-15 carrier-capable fighter last year, Pravda reported , “Russia officially notified China of the violation of international agreements and promised to launch legal proceedings to defend its intellectual property.” This lack of honor among thieves would be funny if the subject wasn’t so deadly serious. So when the Communist Party’s puppet news agency, Xinhua now reports that “the aircraft carrier is for peaceful purposes only” we are expected to believe that China went through all that expensive subterfuge in order to conduct humanitarian missions. The fighter jets on its deck must be for entertaining folks at traveling air shows, rather than say, sinking Vietnamese ships in the disputed oil and gas fields of the South China Sea, attacking Japanese cutters defending the Senkaku islands, or providing air cover for the invasion of Taiwan. The entire episode offers a very public demonstration the duplicity of China’s ruling class and it should serve as a fair warning to those who continue to naïvely mistake its intentions and to underestimate its resolve to achieve regional military dominance and control over resource. It also provides a textbook lesson in Communist Party ethics for Western CEOs and investors who are betting their future at China’s casino of state capitalism.

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PHOTOS: Nations Most Exposed To Natural Disasters

August 12, 2011

The United States may have to grapple with the highest overall costs for natural disasters, but other emerging nations face other social and economic risks, according to a new report. Released Wednesday by British risk analysis firm Maplecroft , the 2011 Natural Hazards Risk Atlas ranks 196 countries based on economic exposure to disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis and floods. As the AFP is reporting , both the U.S. and Japan were deemed at “extreme risk” with regard to overall costs from a natural disaster, but emerging economies pose a greater risk to investors simply due to lack of capacity to combat environmental and social impacts. “The emerging economies, although buoyant with growth, lack the socio-economic conditions to limit their disaster risk. This lack of resilience could threaten their economic growth and the extent to which businesses with operations there hope to flourish,” Maplecroft CEO Alyson Warhurst said in a press release. So far, 2011′s natural hazards — from Japan’s devastating tsunami to the deadly tornadoes throughout much of the U.S. — have been more costly to the world economy than any other year on record, contributing to a massive $265 billion total for the first six months of the year, according to Maplecroft officials. View more information about the report, including additional rankings, here . View a selection of countries and see how their economic exposure ranks below:

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Hiring By The Auto Industry Might Drive U.S. Recovery: Survey

August 1, 2011

(Clare Baldwin) – The auto industry could lead an economic recovery in the United States, according to a recent survey by audit, tax and advisory firm KPMG. Auto executives plan to do more hiring and more capital spending than executives in any other sector in the next year, according to the survey. Sixty-two percent of auto executives said they expect to hire people in the coming year, compared with an average of only 52 percent of executives across all sectors. Similarly, 71 percent of autos executives said they expect to increase their capital spending in the coming year compared with an average of 59 percent of all executives. Two years after the end of the U.S. recession, unemployment remains above 9 percent, U.S. consumer confidence hit a near two and a half-year low earlier this month and the U.S. government reached a last-minute deal late Sunday to avoid a U.S. debt crisis. All this has raised questions about the speed and strength of a U.S. recovery. The U.S. auto industry was hit hard during the financial crisis, which saw both General Motors Co (GM.N) and Chrysler seek bankruptcy protection and government bailouts. It was hit again in March when an earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis in Japan disrupted the supply chain. While the sector is improving — U.S. July auto sales are expected to hit an annual rate of around 12 million vehicles, an improvement over May and June — that figure still lags the 17 million-plus number sold in 2000. A full recovery could take years, but the next 12 months could see an improvement, according to the survey. Seventy-two percent of the autos executives surveyed said they expect their revenue to increase in the coming year. North America is still seen as the most important market, but more revenue is expected to come from other markets including China and South America. New models and products, acquisitions and joint ventures are also expected to add to revenue. Fifty-five percent of those surveyed expect to make an acquisition in the coming year; 5 percent expect to sell. Access to new markets, technologies and products is expected to drive the M&A activity. The auto sector survey, which included the responses of 100 autos executives, was conducted in June. KPMG is releasing the results of its other sector surveys separately. (Reporting by Clare Baldwin; Editing by Matt Driskill) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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India Weddings Faulted For Prodigious Food Waste

July 21, 2011

NEW DELHI — When the daughter of businessman Mohammed Sultan got married recently, guests were treated to a lavish 30-course meal served in super-sized silver platters. The Kashmiri feast, prepared by an army of chefs, included more than 20 meat and kebab dishes rich with spices to go with the saffron-flavored rice and naan breads. Hours later, after the more than 500 guests had eaten their fill, the leftovers were dumped by the cartload at a nearby garbage site. As the ranks of India’s wealthy surge with rapid economic growth, many families are staging extravagant displays of food at their children’s weddings to show off their newfound affluence. The prodigious waste that follows has horrified many in a nation where food prices are skyrocketing and tens of millions of young children are malnourished. At the recent wedding of the son of a ruling party leader, more than a 100 dishes representing Thai, Chinese, Mediterranean and Indian cuisines were served to over 30,000 guests. About 20 percent would’ve been thrown away. India’s Food Minister K.V. Thomas wants to curtail what has become known as the Big Fat Indian Wedding. He says about one-fifth of the food served at weddings and social gatherings is discarded. “It’s a criminal waste,” Thomas told The Associated Press. The tons of food wasted at social gatherings across the country each day contrasts sharply with the food shortages, often bordering on chronic starvation, faced by millions of poor Indians. Like elsewhere in Asia, food prices in India are rising fast – by 8.4 percent in June alone – as demand outstrips production. And the burden is falling disproportionately on the poor. Experts say the jump in prices for staples to record highs over the past few months has pushed another 64 million Asians into poverty. According to the food minister, around 100,000 weddings and social events are held in India every day. He says food wasted each day at weddings and family functions in Mumbai alone would be enough to feed the city’s vast slum population. The International Food Policy Research Institute ranks India 67 out of 84 countries in its 2010 global hunger index, a survey of the prevalence of child malnutrition, child mortality and the proportion of people who are calorie deficient. A committee Thomas established toyed with restricting the number of guests at weddings and the number of dishes that could be served. But the idea was quickly shot down by critics who said it would simply give corrupt inspectors another reason to solicit bribes. Instead, the committee has decided on a public awareness campaign through the media and outreach to schools and social organizations to spread the word that less is more when it comes to weddings. If the awareness campaign fails to make a dent, Thomas said he would consider resurrecting the guest limit proposal. It would not be the first time. In the early 1960s, in the aftermath of a brief border war with the Chinese, food shortages led the government to impose a ‘Guest Control Order’ limiting the number of wedding guests. The restrictions were short-lived, although it did focus public opinion on adopting a measure of frugality. Today, austerity is far from the minds of India’s wealthy, who fly in orchids from Thailand to decorate overstuffed buffet tables. “It’s my only daughter’s wedding. I don’t want to stint on anything. And certainly not on food,” said Alka Gupta, a businesswoman, as she studied a sheaf of menus from wedding caterers while planning her daughter’s December marriage. “My husband and I have worked hard all these years. Now we want a spectacular celebration to invite all our friends,” she said. Sociologist Abhilasha Kumari says that for the burgeoning middle classes, making a spectacle of weddings has become quite the accepted norm. Bollywood, India’s Hindi language film industry, has done much to popularize the theme of the big Indian wedding, says Kumari. “Conspicuous consumption is no longer viewed with distaste as it once was under India’s earlier socialist ethos,” she said. “It’s a new India where there are new value systems. Over-consumption is the norm.” The mere idea of scaled down celebrations has, not surprisingly, prompted a host of objections from businesses who bank on big weddings. Cutting down on the number of dishes may not be an easy task, says Nitin Luthra, a leading New Delhi caterer who has organized some of Delhi’s most spectacular weddings. “People have begun demanding exotic cuisines. What they want is a memorable evening for everyone who attends the wedding,” Luthra said. Wedding planners scoffed at the idea of a cap on wedding guests as a measure to curb food shortages. “It’s a knee jerk reaction, a populist measure,” says Ashish Abrol, a former IBM executive who in 2010 set up a wedding planning firm, Big Indian Wedding. “It would be an utter failure since it’s impossible to implement. The net result would be more corruption,” Abrol said. Suresh Misra at the Indian Institute of Public Administration, a New Delhi-based think tank, agrees that legislation to end the waste may not be “feasible or workable.” “It is true that we cannot force people to cut back on wasteful displays of food and spending, but if we get people thinking about the enormous amounts of food that’s wasted, that itself would be a step forward,” says Misra, who is a member of Thomas’ committee. But efforts to pick up the leftovers and distribute them to the poor have not taken off due to lack of infrastructure. Also, many Indians are reluctant to eat leftovers, partly because food spoils quickly in the country’s hot climate. Before cracking down on weddings, the government plans to cut back on its own excesses. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s office has sent out letters to government departments urging austerity at seminars and conferences. And in what could prove to be a landmark initiative, the government has prepared a draft law that would make access to food a basic right of every citizen. Under the proposed law, almost 70 percent of the population would be entitled to subsidized food. Rising food costs, coupled with steep increases this year in the price of cooking gas and gasoline, have led poor families to pare food budgets. But there are no such concerns for India’s moneyed elite. Gupta, the businesswoman, says for the affluent classes, rising prices are not the overriding concern when planning a wedding. “I would like to scale down things, but feel helpless. There are so many expectations riding on the children’s marriage. Very often it’s not in our hands,” she said. “If we resort to a scaled down wedding, it could send the wrong signal to our business associates.” Another problem is that most Indians don’t take the R.S.V.P. seriously. Wedding planners and caterers have to be prepared for huge turnouts at wedding parties, with the danger that the food may run out. If attendance is lower than expected, that extra food is scrapped. “You have no idea how many will turn up at the wedding reception, and have to plan for both contingencies,” said Gupta. “We would lose face, and it would look so bad, if the food ran out.” ____ Associated Press writer Aijaz Hussain in Srinagar, India contributed to this story.

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Andrew Pyle: Don’t Stretch for Yield

July 15, 2011

For many Canadians on a fixed income, the last 10 years have been tough, to say nothing of the most recent couple. In an ultra-conservative portfolio, filled with Guaranteed Investment Certificates (GICs), five-year rates have spent most of their time below 5% and have hugged the 3% level for much of the past year. With average annual inflation running at 2% and price increases higher for a lot of the non-discretionary items that seniors purchase, the yield erosion has been more acute. Last year, investors were treated to something a little rare among G7 countries and that was a move by the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates, but what many forgot is that the rates they get on GICs at their local bank or brokerage have less to do with what the Bank of Canada is doing and more to do with how bond markets are performing. Bottom line, the Bank controls the extreme short-end of the yield curve with its overnight rate target (currently at 1%), GIC rates take their cue from bond yields and mortgage demand. When bond yields go up, GIC rates will tend to move higher to because of the competitive effect. Likewise, if mortgage demand goes up in general, or perhaps in a particular term, lending institutions will tend to offer higher rates on GICs to attract the funds needed to satisfy the extra demand. This is exactly why GIC rates are lower today than they were about a year ago, even though the Bank of Canada’s rate is half a percent higher. The bad news is that things are unlikely to change any time soon. While some European countries are going through a gut-wrenching jump in government bond yields as a result of debt default concerns, that is not the case in Canada. Nor will it likely to become a concern, even if Ottawa fails to balance its budget in four years as planned. In a world where the US government is routinely running trillion dollar deficits, even if Canada misses on its target it will still retain its poster child status. However, as folks become more anxious over European debt markets, they gravitate to the safer havens of the world, including Canada. That demand for refuge actually puts downward pressure on Canadian bond yields, which in turn puts a lid on GIC rates. At the same time, economic headwinds around the world ensure that growth among the developed nations of the world remains below the pace needed to cause real inflationary pressure, and this keeps central banks on the sidelines in terms of hiking rates. Yes, I know I said the Bank of Canada isn’t having much impact on those rates posted in the window, however, if the Bank were to signal a need to jack its rates higher to cool demand and/or inflation, markets would take their cue and force bond yields up, leading to juicier GIC rates. There are two strategies to take in this environment, other than altering the mix of assets in your portfolio (which should always be done in relation to a change in objectives and risk tolerance). The first, and preferred, strategy is to be patient. If you invest in GICs, stick to a five-year ladder and don’t try timing things like monetary policy changes by investing in one-year rates in anticipation of higher rates down the road. It could happen, but then again it may not. For a refresher on the success of timing, have a look at what happened to GICs in the second half of last year. The preferable strategy is to maintain a medium-term bond ladder which gives you the added benefit of potentially better yields than GICs, but also the potential to generate capital gains if the doom and gloom economic predictions come true over the next five years. What you should not do is stretch to make more yield. This includes loading up your portfolio with high risk (junk) bonds, but it also applies to not going out and buying long-term bonds, even if they are government issued. Yes, we all expect Ottawa and the provinces to remain solvent for many many years to come, but when global interest rates really do start to climb, the capital invested in long-term bonds will erode. Many investors don’t realize that a 1-2% increase in 10-year bonds yields can cause a correction of 10% in the value of those bonds. If you don’t need the capital for 10 years and you’re satisfied with the paltry yield you’ll get for those years, it may not seem like a problem; but if you do need that capital at some point you might be in for a shock. Maintaining a medium-term portfolio allows us to buy and hold to maturity. We don’t really care too much if yields spike in the near-term, because we have locked in a return for those years (assuming the government or company in question doesn’t go under). We’ll get back our nominal investment and have the capital to go and re-invest. If rates are higher by then, all the better. It all comes down to patience — probably the most valuable asset you can invest in these days.

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The Center for Public Integrity: Borrower Nightmares: $700 dormitory fee costs family its car

July 15, 2011

By Amy Biegelsen , iWatch News When Mildred Morris’s son won a coveted spot at the New York drama and performing arts college that trained singer-songwriter Jason Mraz and TV actor Jessie Tyler Ferguson of “Modern Family,” she was overjoyed. The drama, however, extended beyond school. Morris started the process of securing a college loan to pay tuition for her son, Jonathan, to attend the American Musical and Dramatic Academy, but she was caught off guard by an unexpected and sudden $700 fee to hold a dormitory room for him. A single mother of two in the town of Martinsburg, W.Va., 90 minutes northwest of Washington, D.C., Morris works in the technical support branch for the Coast Guard office that issues merchant seamen the equivalent of a driver’s license. Although she had a steady federal job, Morris didn’t have any savings or credit cards, and with the tough economy couldn’t scrape together the $700 fee from friends. She did, however, own a sporty, green 2002 Pontiac Sunfire free and clear. Mildred Morris, a single mother in West Virginia, lost her car after using it to secure a $700 title-loan to pay her son’s freshman college dorm fee. Amy Biegelsen/iWatch News About this project – Debt Deception: Borrower Nightmares To mark the July 21 launch of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, iWatch News is publishing stories about borrowing nightmares: Americans from different walks of life who borrowed money with terms they didn’t understand and couldn’t afford. The stories build on the ongoing  Debt Deception  investigation, begun in February, of how lenders exploit gaps in existing laws to make predatory and confusing loans. Fast Auto Loans provides quick, short-term loans to borrowers who put up their automobiles as collateral. Car-title loans, which are regulated differently in each U.S. state, carry interest rates as high as 300 percent annually.  Amy Biegelsen/iWatch News Broad reach of new consumer financial agency may fall short in some areas By David Heath , iWatch News February 7, 2011 The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau that opens on July 21 faces Republican lawmakers who want to chip away at its power, companies that are already looking for ways to escape regulation, and loopholes inserted by Congress to protect influential businesses. Fights over tribal payday lenders show challenges of financial reform By Michael Hudson and David Heath , iWatch News February 7, 2011 High-interest payday lenders are teaming up with Native Americans to shield their online businesses from lawsuits and consumer-lending regulations by claiming tribal-nation sovereignty. Like iWatch News’ Finance coverage on Facebook and get the latest news instantly. A friend told her about a place that gave quick cash if borrowers put up their cars as collateral. Obtaining the loan took just 30 minutes, she said, mostly to check her references. Morris signed a contract with Fast Auto Loans, took her check for $700 and gave the company the title to her car, which Fast Auto Loans could repossess if she fell behind in repayments. It wasn’t until later that she realized how high the interest rate on her loan was — 300 percent annually. “I should have taken time to go over it,” she acknowledged. “When I saw how large it was, and I was like, wow,” she said. At first she tried to pay more than the monthly minimum, but with the cost of getting Jonathan moved and settled in New York, she started to fall behind in payments to Fast Auto Loans. Some months she could only pay $210 and $175 of that went to interest, barely lowering the loan principal. Many months and over $1,000 later, Morris called it quits, according to a complaint she filed with the West Virginia attorney general. The office is now investigating Fast Auto on behalf of Morris and other consumers . When Morris fell behind on her payments, Fast Auto Loans employees began calling the references she had listed on the loan paperwork. “On the day the payment was due they would start calling people. It was ridiculous,” she said. Her sister, her adult daughter, her friends — even her supervisor at work — got repeated calls from Fast Auto Loans. Frustrated, Morris finally gave up and told the company it could take the car, according to a statement she filed with the West Virginia attorney general. One night, two men from Fast Auto Loans drove up to her townhouse on the edge of town. One hopped out and drove the car away. “I felt sick,” Morris said. Kelley Blue Book estimates a car of the same make and model from that year would be worth at least $2,000. “I ended up losing my car over $700,” she said. “I didn’t want to let my car go, but I didn’t have a choice.” Consumer protection advocates have long raised concerns about this kind of credit. Car-title loans, which are now regulated differently in each U.S. state, are on the list of priorities of the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), which officially opens for business on July 21. Policing non-bank financial services “will be a crucial piece” of the bureau’s business, Elizabeth Warren, who has been in charge of setting up the agency so far, told reporters at a June briefing. . However, the bureau is expressly prohibited from setting limits on interest rates. And the still-leaderless CFPB cannot propose any new regulations until the U.S. Senate confirms a presidential nominee as director. Senate Republicans have threatened to block any nominee until the CFPB is restructured to weaken its power. An important first step, said Ira Rheingold of the National Association of Consumer Advocates, is for the CFPB to use its research capacity to gather facts and data about car-title lending. “After they determine whether or not there’s a social utility to this, or whether this is simply a predatory product, they then can craft rules and rulemaking based on that,” he said. Morris is all for it. “I know there’s a lot of single moms out there and how hard the economy is,” Morris said, “but those people are not there for you; they’re there to rip you off.” Fast Auto Loans’ parent company, Atlanta-based Community Loans of America, Inc. declined to comment, saying it has a policy of not issuing speaking to the press. An attorney representing Fast Auto Loans in West Virginia did not respond to requests for comment. Defenders of car-title loans say they help people who have no other options. Title lenders advertise themselves as providers of fast, easy cash even for consumers with bad credit. “The whole process from application to receiving the funds will take about 15 minutes,” according to the website for Cashpoint, a large title lender in Virginia, whose number is 1-888-EZ-BUCKS. The American Association of Responsible Auto Lenders, an industry group, says most car-title loans are paid back in six months or less. Member companies “keep consumers’ payments low enough so they are able to successfully pay off the loan and get their title back,” the group says on its website. A key feature of the title-loan business is that it does not require borrowers to have bank accounts. That distinguishes the industry from payday lenders, another short-term, high-interest credit option that either requires the borrower to write a post-dated check or to provide electronic access to a bank account for automatic repayments. Title loans typically are made for one month at a 300 percent annual rate. That means a borrower who needs $500 must pay $625 by the end of the month. If the borrower can only afford to cover the interest — Click here to continue reading this story on iWatch News

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Sarah Palin: ‘It’s Not Time To Retreat, It’s Time To Reload’

July 14, 2011

During an appearance on Fox News’ “Hannity” on Wednesday night, Sarah Palin sent a strong message to Republicans on the issue of raising the nation’s deficit limit. “We cannot default, but we cannot afford to retreat right now either,” the former Alaska governor said. “Now is not time to retreat, it’s time to reload.” She continued, “We reload with reality by giving facts and numbers to the American public so that those of us across the United States can start chiming in and letting our representatives know that we will not capitulate.” Speaking at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans last year, Palin used similar language in calling for political action from conservatives. “Don’t retreat – reload, and that’s not a call for violence,” she said at the time. On Wednesday night, the former governor also took issue with an unconventional plan to raise the debt ceiling put forth by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) earlier this week. “This plan of McConnell’s, I think, makes no sense because it does cede power to our president and takes away that authoritey that is inherent in Congress to control the economic decisions that have to be made when it comes to debt,” she said. HuffPost’s Ryan Grim and Elise Foley relay background on the proposal: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) floated a novel way out of default Tuesday, suggesting that Congress give up its power to raise the debt ceiling, and instead effectively transfer that authority — and the political pain that comes with it — to the White House for the remainder of Obama’s current term. … Under current law, Congress raises the debt ceiling, which allows the Treasury Department to issue more bonds to pay off debts and fund projects that Congress has already authorized. Raising the debt ceiling does not authorize or appropriate new spending, but merely settles old bills. Yet under McConnell’s plan, which he called his “last-choice option,” the White House would request an increase in the debt ceiling and Congress could only block that request with a veto-proof super majority — effectively ceding control over the debt limit to the White House. A super majority would likely be difficult to amass, especially when neither party’s leadership genuinely wants the nation to default. Palin outlined her stance on raising the deficit in a post on Facebook last weekend. “This debt ceiling debate is the perfect time to do what must be done,” she wrote. “We must cut. Yes, I’m for a balanced budget amendment and for enforceable spending caps. But first and foremost we must cut spending, not ‘strike a deal’ that allows politicians to raise more debt! See, Washington is addicted to OPM – Other People’s Money. And like any junkie, they will lie, steal, and cheat to fund their addiction. We must cut them off and cut government down to size.” Palin underscored her bottom line on the issue on Wednesday night: “I’m still not one to buy into this notion that we must incur more debt, we must increase the debt ceiling by August 2, otherwise there will be catastrophe, I still don’t believe that that’s necessarily the case.” WATCH: Watch the latest video at video.foxnews.com

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Nearly 10 Percent Of European Insurers Fail Stress Tests: Regulator

July 4, 2011

LONDON (Myles Neligan) – Nearly 10 percent of European insurers would need to raise fresh capital in the event of a severe economic shock accompanied by a plunge in share prices, tumbling interest rates and a property market crash, European insurance regulator EIOPA said on Monday. Thirteen insurers would in that scenario rack up a collective 4.4 billion euro ($6.2 billion) capital shortfall relative to the minimum required under the European Union’s proposed Solvency II regime, the watchdog said as it unveiled the results of a stress test aimed at gauging the sector’s financial resilience. EIOPA did not name the companies, but said the small size of the shortfall compared with the sector’s 425 billion euro surplus before the stress tests are applied demonstrated the industry was financially robust overall. “This shows that overall the European insurance industry has a good shock absorber in its capital position,” EIOPA chairman Gabriel Bernardino told reporters. “Now each company will have an analysis of the areas where they are more exposed, and they can take action.” Bernardino said it was “not appropriate” to identify the companies facing a potential capital shortfall, as the Solvency II capital rules the stress tests are based on could change before they are introduced in 2013. “The take-away is that there isn’t going to be a rush to raise equity. The status quo will be maintained,” said Investec analyst Kevin Ryan. Insurers emerged from the 2008 financial crisis in better shape than banks, but a small number of failures in the sector has spurred regulators to scrutinize it more closely for fear a major insurance collapse could endanger the financial system. EIOPA’s banking counterpart, the EBA, will later this month publish the results of a stress test of European lenders which will name the institutions that are found to be financially weak. EIOPA also said six European insurers would face a collective capital shortfall of 2.5 billion euros in a separate shock scenario involving a surge in sovereign bond yields. However, the industry’s exposure to bonds issued by critically-indebted peripheral euro zone nations at risk of default is “manageable,” EIOPA’s Bernardino said. Allianz, Europe’s biggest insurer, said its Solvency II capital thresholds were determined by an internal model which was both more accurate and tougher than the approach adopted by EIOPA. “For all insurers working with internal models, own results will provide a clearer picture than the EIOPA figures,” an Allianz spokeswoman said. The stress tests “confirm the robustness of the European insurance market and its ability to withstand severe stress scenarios,” said CEA, the European insurers’ lobby group. ($1 = 0.705 Euros) (Reporting by Myles Neligan; Additional reporting by Arno Schuetze in Frankfurt; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Matthew Dakotah: Women In Power: The Race To Create Next-Gen Batteries

June 26, 2011

A special series profiling trailblazers in energy innovation and champions of the environment. See previous stories here . “In my family the expectation was that I would contribute,” says Ann Marie Sastry. “My dad was a huge inspiration to me. He was my hero. And the expectation was there from a very early age that, ‘Of course, I would do mathematics. Of course, I would be interested in science.’ That is a huge advantage–that expectation that you will not only be competent at the sciences and technology, but also that your aim is to make a difference.” One can only imagine how proud Sastry’s father must be. As President and CEO of Sakti3 –a promising next-generation battery startup backed by the likes of Khosla Ventures and G.M. Ventures –and Professor of Mechanical, Biomedical and Materials Science and Engineering at the University of Michigan, she has clearly embraced the lessons of her childhood. “Sakti is Sanskrit for power and three is from the atomic number of lithium and the three founders of the company,” Ann Marie explains. “But the name does comprise a bit of an homage to my father, who is from India and a math professor.” Not all girls grow up with such a powerful mentor and Ann Marie seems well aware of this. When asked about the underrepresentation of women in the STEM (science, technology, engineering, math) fields, she says, “We, as a culture, as an academic community, and as an industrial community need to make the opportunity clear to all groups.” But Sastry sees herself as “more of a glass-half-full kind of a guy.” There is “ample evidence of gender bias. That is incontrovertible,” she says. But at the same time we see young women being much more successful in both early and secondary, and graduate and post-graduate education than young men. And there are a number of studies that show that women’s assessment of their own performance is persistently lower than men’s. But the women’s assessment in carefully controlled sociological and psychological studies hues closer to the fact.” When asked what she takes away from those findings, Ann Marie replies, “Well, Women are right. My feeling is that realism is very helpful to women and girls as they go through a formalized educational program. Not being armed with over self-esteem is not always a bad thing. One thing I tell everybody that I work with–especially students–is that if you want to have high self-esteem, do something estimable. You can read yourself a mantra in front of the mirror every morning before you go to work, but that’s no substitute for going to work.” And if the observations of Sakti3′s founding investor are any indication, Sastry lives by her own words. In the fall of 2007, venture capitalist Samir Kaul –who leads one of the world’s largest clean technology investment funds at Khosla Ventures–traveled to Michigan. “Because my wife and I both went to [the University of] Michigan, I’m always on the lookout for technology out of Ann Arbor–they have terrific research,” he explains. “A number of different people pointed me towards Ann Marie as a shining star in battery technology.” After conducting the requisite due diligence, Samir swiftly placed his bet. “At Khosla, we look for big markets and special people and Ann Marie certainly qualifies in the category of special people,” he says. “We probably decided to invest within six weeks. She is very strong academically and has excellent business instincts–which is a rare breed. And she reaches out a lot for advice. She’s just as much a student as a teacher.” Kaul is also impressed by Sastry’s team-building skills: “She’s not afraid to hire really good people around her– Bob Kruse who ran the electric vehicle program at G.M. and [another] very senior manufacturing guy from Dow. She’s fiercely loyal and really goes to the mat for her folks.” When reflecting on her career, one of the first things Ann Marie emphasizes is the importance of collaboration. “I have been fortunate to have terrific collaborators over the years and sometimes I’m the math guy and the other person is the applications guy, and sometimes I’m the applications guy and I have to find a chemist or a materials scientist or a physicist to work with,” she says. “But what unites the teams that I’ve been privileged to lead is a shared mission to do with the ultimate aim of the project and that typically is a societal aim.” As for the work ahead, Sastry says the energy density of batteries must double “if we’re to have a serious impact on the market with electric vehicles.” That translates to twice the range, or “doubling the size of your electric gas tank.” She sees battery cells eventually being replaced by other technologies, but not for “decades to come.” But in the face of serious competition from a slew of other startups and more established players like A123 Systems and LG Chem , what gives Sakti3 a leg up? First: The company’s solid-state batteries just landed on the annual list of 10 emerging technologies predicted to have the greatest impact by MIT’s technology review. Second: “We started the company based on a series of rather detailed calculations to do with what was achievable in a next-generation battery. We thought battery cells should be designed with proper computational modeling. We’re very focused on disruptive technology,” Ann Marie explains. “The other thing we did was focus very hard on equipment that was scalable, because the bottom line is these battery cells need to be affordable. We’ll be sending prototypes to others this year and hope to bring it to scale within the next few years.” True to form, Ann Marie approaches the realities of entrepreneurship with blunt realism, but she clearly sees a path to success for her nascent company. “We may fail. That means that we’re taking appropriate risks. And as far as the competitors are concerned, I certainly hope they’re working as hard as we are,” she says. “I don’t mean that as a throw down. We’ve got huge numbers of people in the emerging economies that are going to join the middle class and they may adopt the internal combustion engine [instead of electric vehicles] unless the science and technology fields are working hard on energy storage. The markets are enormous and there is room for dozens and dozens of companies to fill the need.” And how will all of those people join the middle class? By having parents that set the same kind of expectations that Sastry’s father did. “When you look at the numbers of people going into technology fields globally, they dwarf our own numbers. In prior decades the United States had hegemony in math, science and technology,” she says. “It’s fading because other nations are becoming very savvy to the fact that people who offer unique capabilities in science and technology are in high demand, and, therefore, can command higher salaries and create a better way of life for their families.” At a Glance Hometown: Peoria, Illinois Education: B.S. in Mechanical Engineering, University of Delaware. M.S. and Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering, Cornell University Professional Highlights: President and CEO, Sakti3. Arthur F. Thurnau Professor of Mechanical, Biomedical and Materials Science and Engineering at the University of Michigan. Advice for Young Women: “If you want to have high self-esteem, do something estimable. You can read yourself a mantra in front of the mirror every morning before you go to work, but that’s no substitute for going to work.”

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Kotak Wealth & IIFL face fee rebate charge – mydigitalfc.com

June 15, 2011

Kotak Wealth & IIFL face fee rebate charge mydigitalfc.com “As part of our family office , we charge clients a fixed rupee fee or a percentage fee based on the client AUM for providing investment advice,” the spokesperson said. A Kotak Mahindra Bank spokesperson said: ” Family office business is based on … and more »

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Georges Ugeux: Is Madame Lagarde the Ideal IMF Leader?

June 2, 2011

The extraordinary push and unusual consensus of the European Union on the candidacy of Madame Lagarde deserves some attention and maybe scrutiny. Being a lawyer and politician who ran a U.S. law firm in Chicago, Madame Lagarde is undoubtedly a very serious candidate. France considers the IMF top job as “theirs,” and has provided a succession of quite remarkable leaders of the IMF. Whether that means the next one should be French was “beyond reasonable doubt” for the Elysée Palace where Président Sarkozy rules. The fact that he or she should be European is part of a “deal” between the United States and Europe, whereby, at Bretton Woods in 1944, the World Bank goes to an American and the IMF to a European. That deal reflects the fact that, at Bretton Woods, the U.S. and Europe were alone to split the jobs. More than ever, this position is no longer defendable. The IMF, under the leadership of Dominique Strauss-Kahn, embarked in a co-financing process, together with the Eurozone, of the bail-out of Greece ($150 billion), Ireland ($130 billion) and Portugal ($120 billion). The Eurozone was indeed unable or unwilling to put on the table the full amount and is now in the unenviable position to have to call on the International Monetary Fund. The new Director General will have to represent the interests of all the members of the Fund in these negotiations. Is a European the best candidate to have the necessary objectivity and dispassionate view of the situation? One could also argue that Madame Lagarde is a crucial part of the negotiations that are taking place which could lead to a further $60 billion loan to Greece, which has not fulfilled its commitments. She supported the European Central Bank view that the Greek debt should be restructured, thereby protecting the ECB’s substantial portfolio of Greek bonds, as well as the European bank’s exposure to Greece. The IMF has always insisted on loans associated with strict application of its conditionality to pay the additional tranches. In this case, it departed from its sound and historical practice. Last but not least, with 43% of the capital of the IMF, the emerging countries are asking for more say and would be perfectly legitimate in requesting that seat for one of them. Agustin Carstens, the Mexican Finance Minister, is campaigning in their name. It seems that the United States, which stayed silent on the matter, will not support Madame Lagarde unless she gets some support from the key emerging countries. They are right. She was in Brazil starting a campaign. The G8 talked about it but, as he often does, Président Sarkozy pretended that it was not the place for such discussions. His Minister of Foreign Affairs, Alain Juppé, pretended that the candidacy of Madame Lagarde was agreed upon, contradicting the statement by Russian President Medvedev that there was a “near-accord” on the fact that an emerging market candidate would be considered. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India indicated to German Chancellor Merkel in Delhi that it was not the nationality that should define the right candidate. The reality is that the European attitude has literally infuriated the other countries who saw in it a sign of colonialism and arrogance. In France, Madame Lagarde is under investigation by the Court Supérieure de Justice for allegedly abusing her power in bypassing the procedure to grant $300 million for a former French Minister and businessman Bernard Tapie. The Court was established by President Mitterrand to investigate irregularities committed by Cabinet Members, in the exercise of their function. Those elements should at least require a serious look, for a candidacy that cannot be treated as ideal, without further consideration. This being said, as Patrick Stewart of the Council on Foreign Relations wrote today: “The apparent lesson of this episode is that while emerging powers are quite content to criticize existing global institutional arrangements, they do not yet constitute an effective bloc that can unite behind an agreed program of action.”

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The End Of Cheap Coffee?

May 29, 2011

The painful struggle of Colombia’s coffee producers is part of a growing global challenge for the industry. Changing weather patterns have wreaked havoc on coffee supply, particularly the Arabica strain, which is grown in the Americas and Africa and which makes the best coffee. Brazil and Colombia are the top two producers of Arabica, but experts say the crops are not keeping up with skyrocketing demand in emerging markets like China, India and South America, as well as among consumers in Europe and North America.

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Leo Hindery, Jr.: Note to Boeing’s Jim McNerney: All We Are Saying Is Give the Truth — and Your Union — a Chance

May 24, 2011

Back in 1969, John Lennon famously wrote, ” All we are saying is give peace a chance .” Well, here in May 2011, while labor peace is not always at hand, maybe we can at least give labor truth a chance. Unfortunately, telling the truth seems to be increasingly difficult for the CEOs of our multinational corporations when talking about “Making It In America” and saving and creating American jobs. And Exhibit A right now is Jim McNerney, who is the Chairman, President and CEO of the Boeing Company. The reason I am picking on Mr. McNerney is that he is defending Boeing’s decision to retaliate against its union workforce in Everett, Washington, by moving thousands of jobs to a non-union location in South Carolina, with statements that are among the most misleading and disingenuous by a major American CEO ever. And I’ve been around long enough to have heard a lot of statements by a lot of big company CEOs. Compounding my dismay with Mr. McNerney is that he also happens to currently hold a very senior economic advisory position in the Obama administration as head of the President’s “Export Council.” He holds this position of crucial influence despite the fact that for years he’s been exporting thousands of his American manufacturing jobs to Mexico and China. The facts of this dispute are pretty simple. As reported by Hal Weitzman and Jeremy Lemer in the Financial Times , ” nineteen [Republican] Senators are threatening to block President Barack Obama’s two appointments to the National Labor Relations Board…after the organisation filed a complaint last month against Boeing that seeks to force the manufacturer to transfer 787 production from the non-union factory in South Carolina to its unionised facilities in the Seattle region .” The NLRB believes that Boeing selected South Carolina — a right-to-work state — purely in retaliation for a strike in 2008 at the Everett facility. To attack the NLRB’s conclusion, Mr. McNerney, in a preferentially placed op-ed in the Wall Street Journal , said the following (the underscoring is mine): ” We viewed Everett as an attractive option and engaged voluntarily in talks with union officials to see if we could make the business case work. Among the considerations we sought were a long-term ‘no-strike clause’. “Despite months of effort…union leaders couldn’t meet expectations on our key issues. “We hold no animus toward union members, and we have never sought to threaten or punish them for exercising their rights, as the NLRB claims. About 40% of our 155,000 U.S. employees are represented by unions – a ratio unchanged since 2003 .” Now, for the truth: The most important right any union has is the right to strike. Without this right, what real opportunity does it have to ensure fair and balanced treatment for workers? Thus it is at once irresponsible for McNerney to make this unreasonable demand and disingenuous for him to then say that union leaders couldn’t meet his ” expectations on key issues .” As Christopher Corson, General Counsel of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, wrote on May 9, “In every state in our nation, the law provides important protections for individual workers when they act together to improve their work lives for themselves and their families…If retaliation were permitted, there would be no protection.” McNerney says that ” Boeing never sought to threaten or punish [workers] for exercising their rights.” Yet the NLRB based its finding on the very specific comment by Boeing executives that ” avoiding strikes was a central reason for the decision .” Yes, ” 40% of Boeing’s [overall] U.S. employees ” today may be ” represented by unions “, and yes, this ratio may be “unchanged since 2003.” However, in the late ’60s when I was in college in Seattle and working nights as a Sheetmetal Workers journeyman, the number of Machinists and other union members working for Boeing in the greater Seattle-Everett area was around 22,000, and by the year 2000 it was around 50,000. Now just a decade later, with McNerney as CEO for the last five years, the number of union members at Boeing in the Pacific Northwest has shrunk to around 35,000, with at least 20,000 of these jobs having moved to China. In just 15 years or so, using an initiative benignly called “systems integration mode of production” which entails providing foreign suppliers and overseas subsidiaries with massive amounts of business knowledge, management practices, training and other intangible exports, Boeing has gone from producing nearly 100% of its commercial aircraft and parts in America to today producing only a small fraction of that work here. The workhorse 727 airframe, launched in 1963, had just a 2% foreign content; the 777 airframe, launched in 1995, has about 30% foreign content; the new 787 Dreamliner, officially launching this year, will have nearly 70% of its manufacturing content coming from foreign sources, with workers in Everett accounting for only about 4% of each aircraft’s value. This massive transfer by Boeing, and by almost every other American corporation committed to offshoring, of intellectual property that took decades to develop with internal investment and support from government-funded research laboratories will, with its massive ripple effects throughout our economy, ultimately be an even bigger ‘drain’ on America than even the direct offshoring of millions of American jobs over the last 15 years. Jim McNerney’s very public and cynical efforts, however, are just another egregious example of the broad opportunism that many American multinational corporation CEOs have embraced in their continuing efforts to offshore American jobs, cut the wages and benefits of the American workers whose jobs are not being shipped overseas, and, whenever they can, BUST UNIONS. As reported by David Wessel ( Wall Street Journal , 4-19-11), ” U.S. multinational corporations, the big brand-name companies that employ a fifth of all American workers, have been hiring abroad while cutting back at home, sharpening the debate over globalization’s effect on the U.S. economy. ” According to the Commerce Department, these companies cut their work forces in the U.S. by 2.9 million during the last decade while increasing employment overseas by 2.4 million, which is a big shift from the ’90s when they added 4.4 million jobs in the U.S. and 2.7 million abroad. In just the year 2009, they cut 1.2 million, or 5.3%, of their workers in the U.S. but only 100,000, or 1.5%, of their workers abroad. Three highlights: Between 2005 and 2010, General Electric, the nation’s largest industrial conglomerate and #6 on the Fortune 500 list, cut 28,000 workers in the U.S. but only 1,000 workers overseas. This notwithstanding that GE’s Chairman and CEO, Jeffrey Immelt, now heads President Obama’s “Council on Jobs and Competitiveness”, which is supposed to help create jobs in the United States and not ship them overseas. Cisco Systems Inc., the Fortune #62 company that makes networking gear, has also been creating jobs much more rapidly overseas. Over the past five years, it has added 21,350 employees overseas, but only 10,900 in the U.S. At the beginning of the last decade, 26% of Cisco’s work force was overseas; today, around 46% is. Oracle, the Fortune #96 company that makes business hardware and software, added twice as many workers overseas over the past five years as in the U.S. At the beginning of the last decade, it, like Cisco, had many more workers at home than abroad; today, however, around 63% of its employees are located overseas. McNerney and his fellow CEOs tout many global ‘differentials’ as the reasons why they’ve been economically ‘downgrading’ some jobs (with moves to South Carolina and other right-to-work states) and offshoring others (to China and elsewhere). Wessel further wrote that American multinationals repeatedly say in justification that it is the ” combination of the U.S. tax code, the declining state of U.S. infrastructure, the quality of the country’s education system, and barriers to the immigration of skilled workers [that is] making the U.S. less attractive to multinationals. ” Yet it is these very multinationals which every day support and maintain these differentials by: Fighting to preserve the corporate tax practices that favor overseas earnings and employees (read ” The Tax Man Cometh – Just Not For Everybody “); Resisting efforts to couple government infrastructure investments with ‘Made in America’ requirements that are no more demanding than every other member of the G-20 has for its own infrastructure investing; Fighting the adoption of our own Manufacturing & Industrial Policy, which we need in order to compete with the mercantilist practices of our major trading partners, often by blaming the relatively poor state of American public school education, which, while of grave concern, has absolutely no correlation; and Manipulating our immigration practices so that these companies can continue to hire employees from India, Taiwan and China at the expense of qualified American job seekers. At the end of the day, as I noted earlier, what’s really going on here is a massive, nation-wide attempt to bust unions in order to further enrich our nation’s multinational corporations. Yet this is happening at precisely the point in time when the United States needs millions more, not millions fewer, union jobs in order to stabilize our middle class. For our country to be ascendant again, American workers everywhere — at Boeing and hundreds of other major corporations — must be treated as the highly skilled, enormously productive and wealth-producing ‘assets’ they are. We need more union-made quality goods to sell abroad and many more union paychecks producing fair incomes here at home if we are to grow ourselves out of the dismal ongoing jobless recovery we are experiencing. Expanding union membership will be one of the surest signposts on the road back to a vibrant, consuming middle class, more income equality, and fairness in employment. And when we have all of this again, along with fairer trade practices, our nation will prosper as it did for the half century before unfair globalization and union-busting practices began to run amok twenty or so years ago. In all of our manufacturing industries — not just in aircraft manufacturing — we must ensure that American workers compete on level-playing fields. Right now, however, our workers are forced to compete against foreign workers, many of whom work for American multinational corporations, who are the indirect beneficiaries of illegal subsidies, massive currency manipulation and shameful environmental practices that swamp any measure of true country ‘comparative advantage’. All the while here at home, with very limited mobility in general but especially in this distressed economy, workers must confront the enormous power that multinational corporations’ almost unlimited geographic, capital and technology mobility gives them. The members of America’s unions are skilled, resilient and tenacious. They did not win the 40-hour work week, benefits and safer working conditions in one fell swoop. These integral pathways and others to the middle class lifestyle — a lifestyle that is now being challenged in so many of our cities and towns — were hammered out over years of negotiations with very powerful corporations. And sometimes these women and men had to strike to ensure fair dealing. But in exchange for their skills, hard work and productivity, these unionized workers produce real wealth that’s been shared for generations across our entire economy and society. I can’t envision a day when unions don’t represent the best path to fair and balanced dealing between companies and workers, for without union voices workers have little or no say in their future. And no worker anywhere should have to work without organizing protections, which is why Jim McNerney’s and Boeing’s demand that Boeing workers now agree to ” a long-term no-strike clause ” is so obviously unfair. Leo Hindery, Jr. is Chairman of the US Economy/Smart Globalization Initiative at the New America Foundation and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Currently an investor in media companies, he is the former CEO of Tele-Communications, Inc. (TCI), Liberty Media and their successor AT&T Broadband. He also serves on the Board of the Huffington Post Investigative Fund.

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Michelle Chen: In Asia, Raising the Wage Floor Toward Global Labor Justice

May 23, 2011

Garment factories have been fleeing from the American industrial landscape for decades now, and their destination is no mystery: faraway communities where the impoverished will work longer, for less, under worse conditions. The workers left behind can do little but watch in distress as the global labor system continues to spiral downward. But awaiting those factories today are labor advocates in Asia who are determined to draw the line on the race to the bottom by pushing up the floor. A group of workers’ advocates came together in 2009 to launch the Asia Floor Wage Alliance , an unprecedented effort to do what free-trade agreements have done for global capital: establish an economic baseline that transcends national boundaries. But while multinationals have prowled the planet to exploit the cheapest workforces they can find, advocates call for a common living wage standard to ensure that workers from Shenzhen to Sri Lanka aren’t working themselves deeper into poverty. The Great Recession offers an opportunity to begin reconfiguring the profit structure. The Wage Floor campaign presents itself as “an effort to formulate a different way to think about developing a global industry and rebuilding the global economy, by raising wages at the bottom and reducing inequality.” This month, the Asia Floor Wage Alliance (AFW) has stepped up pressure on the garment industry, including household names like Gap and Adidas, by issuing guidelines on the living wage in the countries it campaigns in. The projected monthly living wage figures for 2011 are: Bangladesh: 12248 BDT Cambodia: 692903 Riel India: 7967 Rupees Indonesia: 2132202 Rupiah Sri Lanka: 19077 Rupees China: 1842 RMB (Convert to U.S. dollars here .) In Asia as in America , low-wage workers, especially women , suffer a vast discrepancy between the legal minimum wage and what it actually takes to support a household. According to the AFW Alliance, “Currently, the gap between the minimum wage and Asia Floor Wage is almost 1:2, in the best case scenario.” The issue is especially acute for China, where rising inflation and U.S. pressure over Beijing’s currency policy could impact purchasing power and labor costs both in China and all the markets that its factories feed. In the long run, across the region, there is the tumult of soaring food prices, climate change, migration into dense urban areas and a drive for higher living standards. The very least governments and employers could do is work with civil society to align workers’ base incomes with economic security and, by extension, social stability . Of course, the AFW initiative will meet resistance from the industry. Executives may grumble that higher wages will translate into job losses or higher prices for Americans. True, rising labor costs may have unpredictable ripple effects on workers and consumers in developed and developing economies. But volatility is already endemic in global trade. A coordinated movement to establish a firm wage floor, in consultation with workers, unions and employers , lays the foundation for a more rational the production chain, in which fair wages and fair prices are in harmony, and the bosses on top finally get squeezed to pay their fair share. Continue reading at In These Times.

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Renault to sell 100,000 vehicles a year in India

May 23, 2011

Renault to sell 100,000 vehicles a year in India

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Renault to sell 100,000 vehicles a year in India

May 23, 2011

Renault to sell 100,000 vehicles a year in India

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Religion and the public sphere in India

May 23, 2011

Religion and the public sphere in India

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Religion and the public sphere in India

May 23, 2011

Religion and the public sphere in India

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Biamp Systems Appoints Matthias "Mex" Exner Regional Director of Europe

May 19, 2011

BEAVERTON, OR–(Marketwire – May 19, 2011) – Biamp Systems today announced that Mex Exner has assumed the position of Regional Director of Europe. In his role as Regional Director, Exner will be headquartered in the U.K. and will oversee all sales and operations in Europe, Middle East, India, and Africa. Exner will continue working closely with distributors and consultants to ensure that they continue to receive the same high-quality service that they have come to expect from Biamp.

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Pakistan- Sharif calls for improving 
ties with India
with India

May 18, 2011

Pakistan- Sharif calls for improving 
ties with India
with India

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UK- Karan Johar goodwill envoy of British tourism in India

May 17, 2011

UK- Karan Johar goodwill envoy of British tourism in India

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The Worst Of Consumer Inflation May Be Over

May 14, 2011

WASHINGTON — After weeks of pain at the gas pump and the grocery store, the worst appears to be over. Oil prices have fallen, with gas soon to follow. Demand for farm commodities, like the corn used in everything from cereal to soda, has dropped. And businesses remain slow to pass along higher costs because customers aren’t getting raises and might walk away. Inflation may be approaching its peak. “I think the bulk of the big price increases are over,” said Gus Faucher, an economist at Moody’s Analytics. Lower prices – or at least a break in their steady rise – will come as a big relief. Consumer prices rose 3.2 percent for the year ending in April, the most since October 2008. Higher food and gas prices drove the gains. Excluding those two categories, prices rose 0.2 percent in April. They rose 1.3 percent over the past year, below what the Federal Reserve considers healthy. Economists study this figure, known as core inflation, because food and energy prices are volatile. Some inflation can be healthy for the economy because it encourages people to spend and invest rather than sitting on their cash. More spending drives corporate growth, which makes businesses more likely to hire people. Inflation was a much bigger concern in March. Oil prices were rising steadily because of the unrest in the Middle East. Some feared gas could reach $5 a gallon, leaving Americans much less money to spend on cars, appliances and vacations. That kind of drop in spending would squeeze corporate profits, delay hiring – maybe even tip the economy back into recession. But last week, oil prices sank by the most in two and half years. Americans drive less when gas prices get high enough, and concerns about slowing energy demand sent oil prices tumbling – from $114 at the start of May to about $97 on Friday. Now the nationwide average for gas has leveled off. On Friday it was just under $4 a gallon, where it’s been for the past week. Many analysts say it could drop to $3.50 as soon as next month. The prices of milk, bread and chicken won’t fall as fast – it could take six months or longer, analysts say – but they could decline by the end of the year. That’s because the price of corn and other grains have fallen. Overseas ranchers are using less corn for feed, and U.S. farmers have planted more. Food prices had risen in March at the fastest rate in three years. Changes in grain and corn prices take longer to filter down to grocery stores than changes in oil prices do to the gas pump. That’s because grains and other commodities represent a smaller fraction of food costs in the U.S than in other countries. By contrast, oil prices are the biggest factor in the cost of gas. There was evidence in Friday’s government report on consumer prices that food inflation will slow by year’s end. Gas prices rose 3.3 percent in April, a steep rise but the smallest since November. Food costs rose 0.4 percent, half as fast as in March. Gas accounted for about half of overall inflation in April. So a decline in the price of oil should hold down the increase in consumer prices for May. Slower inflation would leave Americans with more money to spend to stimulate the economy, including keeping more of a cut in Social Security taxes that took effect in January. Economists expect the increased spending to raise overall economic growth to an annual rate of 3 percent in the second half of this year. In the first three months of this year, it was 1.8 percent. The oil price drop should bring prices down for a range of products, including chemicals, plastics, even roofing materials. Higher diesel fuels had contributed, for example, to a sharp increase in commodity costs for Procter & Gamble. In response, the company raised prices for Gillette razors, Duracell batteries and Bounty paper towels. Falling corn prices should also help. Corn is widely used as an animal feed, so when it became more expensive, meat and dairy prices went up, too. Corn is also used in sweeteners for soft drinks and snacks, so those could become less expensive. Prices of corn, wheat and other grains jumped last summer after bad weather damaged harvests in countries from Russia to Australia to Brazil. Demand for corn from producers of ethanol, a corn-based fuel, also rose. The price of a bushel of corn reached a record high of $7.76 on April 11. But supply worries have since eased. An Agriculture Department report this week predicted that U.S. corn supplies will rise later this year, based on the drop in demand overseas and the larger crop expected next year. They had earlier been forecast to fall. Demand from fast-growing developing countries such as China and India may also slow as their central banks raise interest rates to try to slow inflation. That should also slow their growth and, in turn, may cool their demand for commodities. It takes about six months for changes in commodity prices to affect consumers. Consumer food prices didn’t start to increase until January, well after commodity costs began rising last summer. Analysts also say many companies were slow to pass along those increases for fear of spooking price-sensitive shoppers. Wage growth has been weak. Average hourly pay rose an anemic 1.9 percent in the last 12 months, less than the rate of inflation. Some companies probably won’t lower prices much, if at all. Airlines, for example, lost money because of the steady rise in the price of oil. If you bought a plane ticket three months ahead of time, your flight was much more expensive for the airline when you flew than when you bought. “They will resist any pressures to reduce fares or fuel surcharges,” says independent airline analyst Robert Mann. The average price of a round-trip ticket during the first three months of this year was $341 before taxes. That was up 10 percent from the same period last year. Airlines paid 27 percent more for fuel from January through March than they did a year earlier. But there will be relief in the prices of other things. The cost of new and used cars rose in April, but some of those increases were related to temporary parts shortages caused by the earthquake and nuclear disaster in Japan. Inflation will remain a risk. Commodity prices are volatile and subject to global turmoil. As recently as last winter, economists were worried that inflation was too low. In October, the core price index had risen only 0.6 percent in a year, and the Fed expressed concern about the risk of falling prices. ___ AP Business Writers Sarah Skidmore in Portland, Ore., and Scott Mayerowitz in New York contributed to this report.

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Dinkar Jain: To India and China, With Love: America to Send Back Her Job-Creating Graduates

May 12, 2011

These lines, etched in bronze, embellish the Statue of Liberty and also articulate the sentiment of this great American emblem: “Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, … Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door!” Emma Lazarus’s sonnet might need to be rewritten. Today, she might write: “Give me your ambitious, brainy young. I will shine the lamp of my colleges, universities and libraries on them. Your masses yearning to learn shall learn, And shall walk back through this golden door straight into your arms.” There are many reasons why graduates of American universities are leaving, especially if they came from overseas. One obvious one is that these graduates find better economic opportunities overseas today than they used to a decade ago. But the fact remains that they also find the American policies on highly skilled immigration irksome. Highly irksome. Never before has a country invited the best brains from around the world, given them an education using her own money and then, pandering to the irrational sentiments of the angry and easily misguided, asked these brains to depart and invest their blossoming talents for the progress and betterment of interests and nations alien to herself. The story of reverse brain drain in the top bracket of human talent plays out something like this: International students come to America to study. They pay tuition, but also benefit greatly from American taxpayer money, grants and endowments. Many colleges will tell you that tuition doesn’t even fully cover the cost of the education they are providing to their students. International students who pay tuition variously benefit from vast amounts of research grants, corporate-sponsored programs and endowment-financed facilities and buildings. Many international students also get large amounts of financial aid and scholarships. Many, if not most, international students who come to the U.S. to obtain advanced degrees, such as PhDs, usually do so on scholarships or tuition waivers in lieu of teaching or research. But after paying for them, American immigration laws make it tough for them to stay. Limits on H1B visas, the tedium & delays of processing green cards and labor certifications for citizens of India and China, and other restrictions on timing and requirements of practical training clauses in student visas greatly restrict economic presence of these graduates in the United States on completion of their degrees. Because it is tough for them to stay, the economic benefits of this labor pool accrue to other countries. Offices are opened abroad. Companies are started and funded abroad. American companies want to hire these international students who turn into managers, scientists and engineers. These companies would have opened offices here, but since they can’t hire them here, they go overseas. From Microsoft on an announcement of opening a new center in 2007: “The Microsoft Canada Development Centre… [in] Vancouver, Canada… will be home to software developers from around the world… [and] allows the company to recruit and retain highly skilled people affected by immigration issues in the U.S. … [It] would create a tremendous opportunity for Canada…. while providing strong economic benefits to British Columbia and Canada.” Many entrepreneurs from among these managers, scientists and engineers educated at American universities are starting companies outside America. Visas aren’t available for them to start companies here with local capital. Venture capitalists (with American pension money, American endowment money and the money of wealthy Americans) wanting to fund these entrepreneurs educated at American universities are funding companies outside America. Further, taxes and employment from all this economic activity related to these new companies are benefiting nations outside America. Examples of upcoming companies that have benefited from this reverse migration of people and capital include SnapDeal, PubMatic, Makemytrip.com, A Thinking Ape, Praetorian Group, Campfire Labs and the like. This is in addition to the right-sourcing of jobs and talent by behemoths like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, eBay, Intel and the like. You get the picture. America’s universities educate the world’s best minds, many times at a subsidized price. Then America sends these minds abroad to raise money from American VC funds to start companies abroad and employ foreigners. This is not about comprehensive immigration reform. This is about a common sense and easy economic survival technique. The issues here are not related to comprehensive immigration reform, which deals with highly-sensitive issues pertaining to 10-12 million people. Highly-skilled immigration reform only has to do with a few thousand graduates of reputed American schools every year — it is something so removed from the issues of illegal immigration that conflating these two distinctive issues is like masking legitimate legislation in reams and reams of pork barrel measures. Comprehensive immigration reform is impractical given the politics in Washington, DC. Highly-skilled immigration reform is basic common sense. These two have nothing to do with each other with the exception of political posturing needs. Academics, business leaders and politicians on both sides of the aisle generally agree with this but can’t act: “…engineering and technology companies started in the U.S. from 1995 to 2005….25.3% of these [have] at least one key foreign-born founder. Nationwide, these immigrant-founded companies produced $52 billion in sales and employed 450,000 workers in 2005.” – Vivek Wadhwa ‘s “America’s New Immigrant Entrepreneurs” (Duke University, UC Berkeley 2007) “Microsoft has found that for every H-1B hire we make, we add on average four additional employees to support them in various capacities.” – Bill Gates (Congressional testimony , 2008) “It makes no sense to educate the world’s future inventors and entrepreneurs and then force them to leave when they are able to contribute to our economy.” – Charles E. Schumer (D) & Lindsey Graham (R) ( Washington Post , 2010) Until America gets anywhere on this issue, the world will keep taking back its educated, upgraded and highly-skilled people educated and trained in America. Perhaps, like American universities do from alumni, America could also ask these countries and their American-educated citizens for endowment contributions? The solicitation letter will go something like this: “To India & China, with Love: America needs your help now, more than ever before, as we shooed away our job creating graduates.”

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Jeffrey Rubin: A Recession Is Coming But Not Yet

May 11, 2011

There will be many dress rehearsals in commodity markets before the next global recession. An example is last week’s dramatic and broad-based sell off that took oil prices for over a $10/barrel tumble. And there is no doubt that despite the scarcity of the resource, the price of oil will crash the next time the global economy sewers. But is that time already upon us? If the monetary authorities in China and India continue to hike interest rates at the pace they have set recently, the next global recession may not be that far off. After all, these economies are today’s global economic growth engines. But when push comes to shove, the political masters of those central banks may soon temper their enthusiasm so they can battle inflation. If the money-printing U.S. Federal Reserve Board doesn’t care about inflation why should the People’s Bank of China ? Compare income per capita between the U.S. and China and it is not too difficult to figure out which one should be more desperate for economic growth and, as a result, more willing to seek trade-offs against inflation. In the meantime, there are several tactical paths China can take that at least give the appearance of holding inflation in check. Reducing the weighting of food and energy prices in China’s consumer price index would be one way. As long as the country’s headline inflation rate stays below 5 percent, markets won’t get too upset about what it is really measuring. Having the People’s Bank of China step away from the U.S. treasury auction could be another way of keeping reported inflation at bay. A soaring Yuan, and hence tumbling import prices would provide a partial offset to building domestic price pressures, such as what led to the recent truckers strike in Shanghai. Of course, there could be other reasons for commodity market sells-offs in the future. But let us not lose sight of the forest for the trees. No matter how much oil prices and other key commodities such as copper and grain fall, look at the parameters in which they now move. Even land-locked oil prices like West Texas Intermediate barely dipped below $100 per barrel. And Brent, the world oil price never made it below the triple digit price threshold. How the goals posts have moved. Five years ago, those prices would have been all time highs. Last week, they generated headlines of plunging oil prices. What hasn’t changed however is the intrinsic relationship between oil and economic growth. Ratchet down expectations for economic growth and quite naturally you lower expectations for future oil prices. But that’s only because without burning more oil, there is no economic growth.

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Dominique Desruelle: BRICs and Mortar — Building Growth in Low-Income Countries

May 9, 2011

The so-called BRIC nations–Brazil, Russia, India and China–could be a game changer for how low-income countries build their economic futures. The growing economic and financial reach of the BRICs has seen them become a new source of growth for low-income countries (LICs). LIC-BRIC ties–particularly trade, investment and development financing–have surged over the past decade. And the relationship could take on even more prominence after the global financial crisis, with stronger growth in the BRICs and their demand for LIC exports helping to buffer against sluggish demand in most advanced economies. The potential benefits from LIC-BRIC ties are enormous. But, so too are challenges and risks that must be managed if the LIC-BRIC relationship to support durable and balanced growth in LICs. Unlocking the new sources of growth and investment financing–particularly given the massive investment needs of LICs –raises a raft of other issues, including: how to finance investment without taking on too much debt; how to attract investment without sacrificing too much fiscal revenue through costly tax incentives ; and how to avoid resource dependency in the long run. Most of these challenges and risks are not new, but they deserve renewed attention. In that spirit, the IMF recently sponsored a panel discussion to explore these issues, drawing on perspectives from LIC and BRIC policymakers, and development experts. Strengthened ties have certainly boosted exports, helping to stimulate growth in LICs and contribute to their resilience during the global economic crisis. But, over the longer haul, what will matter is whether BRICs will be a positive force in making LICs more dynamic and productive through structural change–where economies shift from, say, agriculture to labor-intensive manufactures having a larger role. So, the extent to which BRICs could be the building blocks for lasting growth in LICs may still be an open question. But, we took away from the panel discussion six essential factors that will help LICs lay the groundwork to benefit from this important relationship. Current LIC-BRIC ties may pose a risk to LICs becoming too reliant on raw materials–a commodity trap–but LICs can also learn from successful BRICs. –On one hand, India and China’s competitiveness in manufacturing and their large demand for natural resources may push up the relative price of commodities undermining incentives for LICs to shift into manufacturing. –At the same time, Brazil and Russia (as well as advanced economies, such as Australia and Canada) have benefited from natural resources as a lynchpin for growth. Boosting manufacturing is central to stimulating growth. Here too there are mixed views as to whether or not BRIC development financing has helped transfer technology and improved labor skills particularly in manufacturing. Greater provision of trade preferences (including beyond commodities) could help ensure that the relationship is mutually beneficial and de-bunk the notion that BRICs are simply “looting” the LICs for their natural resources. Concessional financing can provide a good jump start, but commercial financing will be vital to sustained growth. BRIC development financing is complementary to traditional donor support, but can also have important knock-on effects. China’s experience points to two possible advantages: commercially-oriented development financing is less constrained by the size of the flows, and provides incentives for competition, efficiency and permanent interest in ensuring that the project remains viable. LICs can learn from the BRICs in how they balance these various challenges. Countries need a coherent strategy for scaling up infrastructure and development that maximizes their growth potential. China, for instance, has had tremendous success in coherent investment planning, constantly reassessing infrastructure gaps and reorienting resources. Multilateral institutions and donors can play an important role in complementing the LIC-BRIC relationship , through: analysis and policy advice to support macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability; and capacity building and facilitating improvements in the investment environment to boost LICs’ absorptive capacity. Greater transparency of BRIC financing, particularly development financing, is needed. Perhaps the biggest gap is the lack of official data on development financing by China. It would be helpful for China to publish this data. While it’s difficult to do justice to the richness of the panel discussions, we hope it can foster an ongoing dialogue about how LICs can–particularly in building their relationships with BRICs–increase the volume and quality of investment, and associated financing, in a sustainable way. From iMFdirect blog

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Jeffrey Sachs: The Global Economy’s Corporate Crime Wave

May 8, 2011

The world is drowning in corporate fraud, and the problems are probably greatest in rich countries — those with supposedly “good governance.” Poor-country governments probably accept more bribes and commit more offenses, but it is rich countries that host the global companies that carry out the largest offenses. Money talks, and it is corrupting politics and markets all over the world. Hardly a day passes without a new story of malfeasance. Every Wall Street firm has paid significant fines during the past decade for phony accounting, insider trading, securities fraud, Ponzi schemes, or outright embezzlement by CEOs. A massive insider-trading ring is currently on trial in New York, and has implicated some leading financial-industry figures. And it follows a series of fines paid by America’s biggest investment banks to settle charges of various securities violations. There is, however, scant accountability. Two years after the biggest financial crisis in history, which was fueled by unscrupulous behavior by the biggest banks on Wall Street, not a single financial leader has faced jail. When companies are fined for malfeasance, their shareholders, not their CEOs and managers, pay the price. The fines are always a tiny fraction of the ill-gotten gains, implying to Wall Street that corrupt practices have a solid rate of return. Even today, the banking lobby runs roughshod over regulators and politicians. Corruption pays in American politics as well. The current governor of Florida, Rick Scott, was CEO of a major health-care company known as Columbia/HCA. The company was charged with defrauding the United States government by overbilling for reimbursement, and eventually pled guilty to 14 felonies, paying a fine of $1.7 billion. The FBI’s investigation forced Scott out of his job. But, a decade after the company’s guilty pleas, Scott is back, this time as a “free-market” Republican politician. When Barack Obama wanted somebody to help with the bailout of the US automobile industry, he turned to a Wall Street “fixer,” Steven Rattner, even though Obama knew that Rattner was under investigation for giving kickbacks to government officials. After Rattner finished his work at the White House, he settled the case with a fine of a few million dollars. But why stop at governors or presidential advisers? Former Vice President Dick Cheney came to the White House after serving as CEO of Halliburton. During his tenure at Halliburton, the firm engaged in illegal bribery of Nigerian officials to enable the company to win access to that country’s oil fields — access worth billions of dollars. When Nigeria’s government charged Halliburton with bribery, the company settled the case out of court, paying a fine of $35 million. Of course, there were no consequences whatsoever for Cheney. The news barely made a ripple in the US media. Impunity is widespread — indeed, most corporate crimes go un-noticed. The few that are noticed typically end with a slap on the wrist, with the company — meaning its shareholders — picking up a modest fine. The real culprits at the top of these companies rarely need to worry. Even when firms pay mega-fines, their CEOs remain. The shareholders are so dispersed and powerless that they exercise little control over the management. The explosion of corruption — in the US, Europe, China, India, Africa, Brazil, and beyond — raises a host of challenging questions about its causes, and about how to control it now that it has reached epidemic proportions. Corporate corruption is out of control for two main reasons. First, big companies are now multinational, while governments remain national. Big companies are so financially powerful that governments are afraid to take them on. Second, companies are the major funders of political campaigns in places like the US, while politicians themselves are often part owners, or at least the silent beneficiaries of corporate profits. Roughly one-half of US Congressmen are millionaires, and many have close ties to companies even before they arrive in Congress. As a result, politicians often look the other way when corporate behavior crosses the line. Even if governments try to enforce the law, companies have armies of lawyers to run circles around them. The result is a culture of impunity, based on the well-proven expectation that corporate crime pays. Given the close connections of wealth and power with the law, reining in corporate crime will be an enormous struggle. Fortunately, the rapid and pervasive flow of information nowadays could act as a kind of deterrent or disinfectant. Corruption thrives in the dark, yet more information than ever comes to light via email and blogs, as well as Facebook, Twitter, and other social networks. We will also need a new kind of politician leading a new kind of political campaign, one based on free online media rather than paid media. When politicians can emancipate themselves from corporate donations, they will regain the ability to control corporate abuses. Moreover, we will need to light the dark corners of international finance, especially tax havens like the Cayman Islands and secretive Swiss banks. Tax evasion, kickbacks, illegal payments, bribes, and other illegal transactions flow through these accounts. The wealth, power, and illegality enabled by this hidden system are now so vast as to threaten the global economy’s legitimacy, especially at a time of unprecedented income inequality and large budget deficits, owing to governments’ inability politically — and sometimes even operationally — to impose taxes on the wealthy. So the next time you hear about a corruption scandal in Africa or other poor region, ask where it started and who is doing the corrupting. Neither the US nor any other “advanced” country should be pointing the finger at poor countries, for it is often the most powerful global companies that have created the problem. Originally published by Project Syndicate.

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Video: Forster Says China Is No.1 Growth Market for Jaguar

May 6, 2011

May 6 (Bloomberg) –- Tata Motors Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Carl-Peter Forster talks about Jaguar Land Rover’s new hybrid supercar. The luxury-car unit of India’s Tata Motors said it will begin production of the C-X75, an electric supercar priced from 700,000 pounds ($1.2 million) and able to reach 60 miles per hour in three seconds. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Manus Cranny at a press conference in London.

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Air India striking pilots leave stuck patients

May 5, 2011

Air India striking pilots leave stuck patients

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Video: Maguire Says Fiscal `Slippage’ Led to RBI Rates Increase

May 3, 2011

May 3 (Bloomberg) — Glenn Maguire, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Societe Generale SA, discusses the Reserve Bank of India’s decision to raise interest rates by half a percentage point, more than analysts forecast. He talks with Mark Barton on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.”

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Air India pilots defy court orders

May 3, 2011

Air India pilots defy court orders

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New hurdles for Air India crash compensation

April 26, 2011

New hurdles for Air India crash compensation

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Kyle Westaway: The Top Four Startups At The Summit Series Conference

April 25, 2011

It’s been called “The Next TED” and “Davos for Generation Y.” President Bill Clinton has called it “A gift to the United States and the world.” But, honestly, the only way to describe the Summit Series is… Epic. Summit Series engages the world’s most dynamic dreamers and doers through curated events, such as this year’s Summit at Sea, in order to make the world a better place. The Summit Series team believes what’s good for business should be good for the world, and is working to inspire the millennial generation to redefine what success looks like in business and in life. To that end, earlier this month a boat carrying the next generation entrepreneurs, artists and activists set sail from Miami for a weekend of inspiration, connection and, of course, revelry. The weekend was filled with inspiring content from Richard Branson, Russell Simmons, Gary Vaynerchuck and Jaqueline Novogratz. The party was set to the music of The Roots, Imogen Heap, Pretty Lights, Axwell and Eclectic Method. You couldn’t wait in line for a drink at the bar without meeting a 20-30 something that is crushing it in their respective field. The atmosphere was very open, and every conversation was both humbling and inspiring. In the closing session one of the founders of the Summit Series said, “If you want to be a fast runner, spend time with sprinters.” Well, in the world of entrepreneurship and social good, this boat was full of world-class sprinters. Out of this group there were four exceptionally innovative startups from members of the Summit Series community that have the potential to be incredibly disruptive… in a good way. SKILLSHARE What is Skillshare? from Skillshare on Vimeo . The learning revolution is on! Skillshare is redefining what an education is by challenging the assumption that learning only occurs within the four walls of a classroom. Skillshare is a platform to learn anything, from anyone. Think of it as the “Etsy for Learning”. Want to learn how to compost food, win at scrabble, or bake the perfect cupcake from the folks at Magnolia Bakery? You’ll be able to take a class on these interesting topics through the Skillshare community. Skillshare is flipping the traditional notion of education on its head and democratize learning by tapping into existing communities and networks, which we believe are the world’s largest universities. Skillshare is in Beta. THE ADVENTURE PROJECT What’s the best way to create access to water in rural India, clean cookstoves to Haiti, or irrigation in Uganda? The Adventure Project believes it’s by encouraging investment in social entrepreneurs in the developing world. Rather than giving charity, which is so often ineffective, inefficient and destructive, The Adventure Project seeks to empower local entrepreneurs on the ground to meet the biggest challenges in their community. The Adventure Project accesses microphilanthropy — donations of $100 or less — from their grassroots network of donors in America and invests those donations in innovative, low cost solutions in developing communities across the globe. Every quarter they focus on a different project. The Adventure Project transforms philanthropy into investment. The vision is simple. The Adventure Project believes that we can end extreme poverty in our lifetime by reinventing how we give. Ways that spur economic opportunity, promote dignity and save lives. The Adventure Project launched in December 2010. Check them out at http://theadventureproject.org ZAARLY Zaarly Introduction from Team Zaarly on Vimeo . Say you’re on a deadline at the office and you’re totally craving Chicken Tikka Masala from that one Indian restaurant across town, but there’s no way you can get out to grab it. You think to yourself, “Man, I’d pay $30 to get that Tikka Masala right now.” Well, that’s exactly what Zaarly does. Zaarly is a proximity based, real-time buyer powered market. Buyers make an offer for an immediate need and sellers cash in on an infinite marketplace for items and services they never knew were for sale. It’s the perfect marketplace to facilitate division of labor, so that users can spend their time focusing on the best use of their time. Additionally, it’s creating a solution to the languishing unemployment problem. Anybody can run errands in their free time and make a decent amount of money. Zaarly is in stealth mode. BRE.AD Do we really need another link shortener? That was my initial thought when I heard about bre.ad. But Bre.ad is the first innovator in this space because its patented technology enables users to promote their personal brands and causes. Here’s how it works: say you send me a link to a Harvard Business Review article. When I click on the link I will be directed to a 5 second billboard of your choosing, perhaps a page promoting Pencils of Promise, then it will automatically take you to the HBR article. The first bre.ad link was used by Lady Gaga to promote her new album on Twitter and Facebook. The company is working with online personalities, brands and charities to help them gain more exposure across social media while letting their audiences know what they care about most. Bre.ad is currently in stealth mode To sign up for their beta, visit http://bre.ad These four startups are changing the way we learn, give, share and get stuff done. But there are sure to be more innovative startups coming out of conversations that happened at the Summit at Sea. With all the talent, ambition, positive vibes, great music and inspiration on the ship, there’s sure to be dreamers and doers that are bold enough to ask the question, “What if…?” Whatever the answer to that question is, the world is bound to be a better place because of it.

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Buffett May No Longer Be Invincible

April 25, 2011

NEW YORK (Ben Berkowitz) – Aside from maybe the odd cheeseburger stain on his tie, nothing much sticks to Warren Buffett. Whether his underlings are convicted of helping insurance companies inflate results or a major company he helps oversee is sanctioned for accounting shenanigans, his admirers don’t seem to care. Or at least, they haven’t historically. But with a key Buffett lieutenant resigning under a cloud recently, some sophisticated investors are no longer willing to overlook the obvious. For all the shareholders who still consider Buffett the epitome of American capitalism, there are others who wonder whether the time may be near for Buffett to take a graceful bow and exit the stage. Some will clamor for that this weekend, when 40,000 of his shareholders prepare to descend on Nebraska for the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway, the ice-cream-to-insurance conglomerate he runs with absolute authority. “I want to hear more about Sokol, I want to hear more about how they’re going to outperform the markets. I want to hear about what (Buffett’s recent) trip to India leads us to believe about how the money is going to be invested in the future,” said Michael Yoshikami, chief executive of wealth management firm YCMNET Advisors and a widely quoted Berkshire shareholder. Investor disappointment reflects not just the revelation that David Sokol, once Buffett’s presumed successor as chief executive, bought stock in a company he then pushed Buffett to acquire. It is also because of Berkshire’s lackluster performance recently, and questions about the firm’s ability to thrive after its octogenarian chairman and chief executive moves on. Berkshire Hathaway has grown exponentially over decades, but many investors question how it can possibly do as well in the future. With the dozens of companies that Berkshire Hathaway owns having had relatively little oversight for years (by Buffett’s own proud admission), some wonder how much earnings power Berkshire actually has and whether future earnings can be as strong as past. “Obviously Berkshire has intrinsic value but now I have to question that intrinsic value,” said Janet Tavakoli, an expert on derivatives and author of “Dear Mr. Buffett,” a 2009 book laden with fulsome praise for the legendary investor. Tavakoli, like many others, has revised her thinking sharply in the intervening years. Yet she, like so many others, added an important caveat about Buffett: “(His) brand is so powerful you are reluctant to question.” SOKOL AFFAIR By now the details of Sokol affair have been told many times. Citigroup bankers pitched a long list of companies to Buffett’s presumed successor, and he told them he thought Lubrizol Corp, which makes lubricants and other chemicals, might make a good acquisition target. He started buying up shares for his own account, and after building up a $10 million position he pushed Buffett to buy the company. As Buffett put it, Sokol made only a “passing” mention that he owned some Lubrizol shares. Sokol made about $3 million on the trade, perhaps at Buffett’s expense. Buffett has been called to task for how he handled the matter. In a letter to investors, he announced Sokol’s resignation, explained the stock issue and offered a grant of absolution: “Neither Dave nor I feel his Lubrizol purchases were in any way unlawful,” he wrote. Less than three weeks later, the first shareholder suit was filed, accusing Berkshire’s board of breaching its fiduciary responsibility. More are expected, particularly from bigger firms with a track record of winning large settlements for shareholders. Governance experts say Buffett blamed the sin but not the sinner. “The response wasn’t as strident as … I would have hoped for in suggesting that personal stock transactions that are related to corporate stock transactions are problematic and not the sort of thing that the company thinks is a good idea,” said Charles Elson, director of the Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance at the University of Delaware. “And I would hope in these situations that you would be pretty tough on that in your response.” Some of Buffett’s biggest investors also say he should have chastised Sokol or told him to sell his stock. What is murkier, however, is the question of whether Buffett actually did anything wrong from a legal standpoint. “There’s a lot of very problematic behavior here that doesn’t easily find an explanation, so the question remains, what in fact was going on here?” said Harvey Pitt, chief executive of Kalorama Partners and the former chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. “Why would somebody be allowed and be deemed to have acted properly in profiting to the tune of $3 million based on his privileged position at the company?,” Pitt added. It wasn’t the first time that Buffett has been close to people behaving questionably. But few of his investors have cared, and the damage to his reputation seemed slight if at all. In 2008, for example, the government won convictions of four executives from his reinsurance business for helping other insurers inflate their results. The nearly uniform reaction from legions of Buffett fans around the world: yawn. And in 2005, the SEC sanctioned the Coca-Cola Co, whose audit committee Buffett sat on, for inflating earnings. His admirers barely batted an eyelash. ‘THAT’S MY GUY’ Buffett, of course, benefits mightily from his folksy image. After all, it’s tough to imagine how someone who drives himself to work and stops at McDonald’s for a bite on the way home can also be guilty of high crimes of finance. “Warren Buffett works very hard reflecting an image that 300 million Americans, six billion people around the world say, ‘That’s my guy. That’s the way I’d like to be like.’ And he works very hard at that — not every week or every month, but every day. And I think by working hard at it every day, he drives that image hard into people’s minds,” said Robert Dilenschneider, a public relations executive who heads the Dilenschneider Group in New York. The audience at the annual meeting is one of the tools he uses to burnish his reputation. There is no better financial television than footage of Buffett having an ice cream at (Berkshire-owned) Dairy Queen, with hordes of investors thronging him and hoping he might drop a stock tip on the floor with the crumbs of his vanilla cone. It is hard to interrupt that storyline. “With the cash that he was able to squeeze out of that dying textile business (Berkshire Hathaway) and astutely reallocating it year after year after year, the business grew from $18 a share to $120,000 a share,” said Roger Lowenstein, author of a well-regarded 1995 Buffett biography and a number of other finance books. “I have no doubt that he’ll be regarded as the investor and probably the financier of the era. This incident sort of tells people that he’s human.” PERFORMANCE UNDER FIRE While many would agree with Lowenstein on Buffett’s place in financial history, his returns of late have not necessarily matched his reputation. Berkshire shares have only barely matched the S&P 500 since September 2008, the depths of the crisis and the time Buffett made some of his most lucrative bets, like buying Goldman preferred shares that threw off more than $15 a second in dividends. Just this year, Berkshire has underperformed the S&P 500 by about 4 percent. Buffett has said returns will slow, so it does not necessarily come as a surprise. There is expected to be less reluctance to question him this year in Omaha. Author Tavakoli said shareholder dissatisfaction was already palpable at the last meeting she attended in 2009, as Buffett went on about his bet on Wells Fargo and investors grumbled that he was not talking about the “crony capitalism” they saw behind the crisis-era bailouts. “It seems as if Warren Buffett has sort of lost touch with the tone of the people who invest in Berkshire Hathaway and their sentiment,” she said. The Q&A session will again be moderated by financial journalists this year, so even if investors don’t ask tough questions, reporters may. Words like “contentious” and even “raucous” are being thrown around. And yet, some investors still do not expect much. “I don’t expect any great revelations but what I want is not necessarily what I’m going to get,” said YCMNET’s Yoshikami. Yet he still expects the annual meeting to be a “lovefest,” given the overwhelming number of shareholders who flock to Omaha annually for nothing more than pearls of Buffett’s wisdom (and perhaps some discount pearls from his jewelry business, one of a number of Buffett companies to offer steep shareholder discounts over the course of the weekend). Yoshikami said that if Buffett gets away from the Sokol episode unscathed, it will be because he has banked sufficient goodwill with investors in the past. “When you have an inventory of transparency that you can fall back on I think you get the benefit of the doubt,” he said. “I think when you self-disclose enough and you have a reputation for self disclosing it buys you some reputation credits.” But no matter what Buffett says or does in Omaha, there is a growing realization that the old days have slipped by. Buffett and his partner, Charlie Munger, are aging, the questions about the future of the conglomerate are getting louder and people are recognizing, as they do, that all good things have to come to an end. “The passage of time is hitting home. This year is the end of Berkshire as it used to be,” said Alice Schroeder, a former stock analyst who wrote what many view as the definitive biography of Buffett. “It will never be the same. Even if people think Buffett’s not going to address all these issues and the questions won’t be as tough as they should be, Berkshire as it used to be is over,” Schroeder said. (Additional reporting by Brett Gering of Reuters Insider; Editing by Jim Impoco) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Gordon Brown: Global ‘Mini-Lateralism’ Will Get Us Nowhere

April 22, 2011

Two years ago the formal creation of the G20 helped prevent the world recession from becoming a world depression. World leaders agreed to a one trillion dollar underpinning of the world economy, and strengthened the World Bank, the IMF and the World Trade Organization. In its concluding statement, however, the G20 promised more: that it would work towards implementing new global standards and regulations across the world’s banking system and that it would be the architect of a global growth agreement designed to deliver rising prosperity and create jobs in the decades ahead. Two years on, what some now call mini-lateralism, seems to be the order of the day. The immediate crisis has passed and despite outstanding leadership in our international institutions and bold international initiatives by some national leaders, many governments have retreated into their national shells. We cannot agree on the proposed ‘global growth pact’, a world trade agreement is yet again stalled, risking the first failure of a planned trade agreement since 1948, and, even after a nuclear catastrophe in Japan and a period of violent volatility in oil prices, there is still insufficient momentum for a global climate change agreement. So what has happened? The need for cooperation cannot be in dispute. Indeed this year the world is facing an unremitting onslaught of new challenges – food shortages, commodity price rises, youth unemployment and social unrest ; and large imbalances even as inflation reappears. Some now talk not of a crisis but of crisis-ism, a state of ever recurring crises that cannot easily be resolved by nations acting autonomously. Our interdependent world means that our problems are no longer just problems we share in common but are global, interwoven between countries and only concerted action across continents can effectively tackle them. The IMF has already shown that we might have been in a position to raise world growth by an extra 3 per cent by 2015, and create anything between 25 and 50 million new jobs if the enhanced global cooperation that the G20 promised in 2009 had happened. But we need better global coordination not just to address the problems of today but the challenges of tomorrow, triggered by the next revolution ahead in global markets. Indeed, this generation finds itself in a unique place — at the vanguard of the biggest transformation of the world economy in history. In the last twenty years, two billion men and women have joined the ranks of industrial producers, trebling the size of the world’s industrial economy. In the next ten to fifteen years this revolution will be augmented by at least two billion people joining the ranks of the world’s middle-class, trebling its current numbers. So the recent shift in producer power will soon be matched by a coming shift in consumer power, and we will see and feel this transformation powering through our lives and shaping our national fortunes with an irresistible force. The world’s biggest market, for instance, will no longer be in America but in Asia and it will grow to around 40 percent of all consumer spending, twice the size of the American market, and substantially bigger than the German market (4 percent) and the British market (3 percent). So who will be the biggest beneficiaries of these changes? With the right opening up of trade, European and American brand names, with high value added, and technology driven, niche and custom-built products and services, could be providing us with engines of growth and employment as demand for these products and services rises in Asia (as well as in other areas with increasing consumer power, like Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia and parts of Africa). Yet without enhanced international cooperation the west will not be in the best position to take advantage of these changes. Indeed unless we enshrine market access in a global agreement we will lose out on some of the greatest economic opportunities for rising standards of living we have ever seen. And global coordination is necessary for other reasons, too. The world has been too ready to unlearn the lessons of the financial crisis and there is a danger that we are sowing the seeds of the next financial crash. Without agreement on global financial standards -and currently individual continents and even countries are going their own way- finance will be in a race to the bottom with the good financial centers at risk of being undercut by the bad and the bad by the worst. And of course, if present trends continue, if markets remain closed to certain countries or operate randomly and in an unfettered way, the world will become structurally more unequal — India, China, Indonesia, Brazil and Russia will see inequality grow and Africa will become more isolated. The economic discontents of the peoples of North Africa and the Middle East will not be met without international support. Enhanced cooperation is essential in helping to prevent embryonic problems in poorer parts of the world from escalating into crises that could threaten the security of and through mass migration risk the stability of all the peoples of the world. Without global flows of investment to empower entrepreneurship in Africa and to facilitate economic and educational development, the region will become the source of new migration, climate change and security crises that will threaten us all. Today, the responsibility to pick up the reins of global cooperation falls on all of us. We need to argue more strongly than ever for the employment benefits that will flow from a world growth plan. Civic organizations, especially churches and faith groups, often underestimate the resonance of their collective voice: their voice should be listened to as they demand action against poverty and youth unemployment. There should be a stronger partnership with business which, in a world of heightened risk, needs avoidable uncertainty removed not least the stable environment that comes from a clean banking system operating to global standards. Business benefits too when we act to end the volatility in energy prices, when we organize effectively to increase food production and reduce food prices and when we take active steps to raise employment levels. Enhanced global cooperation needs to be championed by a strengthened coalition of business, NGOs, international institutions and public leaders working together on global issues. That opportunity is being championed today by the vision of the World Economic Forum led by Professor Klaus Schwab, which is already part of the business outreach President Sarkozy has championed for the G20, following President Obamas lead in 2009. Today there is, indeed, too much mini-lateralism: we cannot succeed without enhanced cooperation and it’s time once again to raise our ambitions on what global co-operation can achieve. Gordon Brown is the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and author of Beyond the Crash; Overcoming the First Crisis of Globalisation. He is to be Chairman of the Global Policy Coordination Board of the World Economic Forum in an unpaid capacity.

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Gold Hits Records High, Americans Sell Their Treasures

April 22, 2011

This story was reported in collaboration with our partners at Patch.com. It was a rainy afternoon in January of 1848 when a builder named James Marshall arrived at the office of his employer, John Sutter, a tannery owner, farmer and merchant, in a rural trading post in what is now Sacramento. “He told me then that he had some important and interesting news which he wished to communicate secretly to me,” Sutter later wrote in a letter to Hutchings’ California Magazine . “… Marshall took a rag from his pocket, showing me the yellow metal: he had about two ounces of it; but how quick Mr. M. put the yellow metal in his pocket again can hardly be described.” The yellow metal was gold, of course, and the secret wasn’t secret for long. “Gold fever” struck, and by the next year people were flocking to California from as far away as Chile, Australia and China. Fast-forward to April 2011. The price of gold has just hit $1,500 an ounce, a record high, and in a shop not so far from where that fateful meeting occurred, a different sort of gold rush is taking place. Well, maybe not a rush, exactly. More like a “bump” — that’s how John Paul Liscandro, an employee of The Pawn Advantage Store in Santa Rosa, described it. A lot of people have been coming into the store to sell gold, he said. “It’s kind of rough,” he added . Asked whether he meant that people were desperate, he replied, “I mean, it’s a pawn shop.” Across the United States, people are heading to pawn shops and jewelry stores with gold necklaces their ex-boyfriends gave them, gold coins that they inherited from their grandfathers, and in at least one case, ” 10 half pairs of earrings and a bracelet they got in the ’80s and monstrous hoops. ” Also : “gold teeth — yes, teeth” and “ancient computers that were once soldered with gold.” “The middle class is growing very rapidly ,” said Sam Dolabany, owner of Dolabany Jewelers in Westwood, Mass. Unfortunately for people who live in the United States, he was talking about the middle class in India and China, where the demand for gold, high to begin with, is getting higher. As Cathryn J. Prince pointed out in her article for the Patch site in Weston, Conn., ” Investors consider gold a safe haven for their money during fiscal and political upheaval.” Think of gold as fear in mineral form. As economic anxieties increase, so does the price of gold, as does the financial desperation that drives a person to cash in on the solid gold Elvis pendant their husband bought them in Memphis on that cross-country trip in 1982. For this reason, store owners are generally wary of sharing their customers’ information with reporters. “Some people — I don’t want to use ‘ashamed,’ but it’s not a happy situation,” said Brian Weinberg, the owner of Parkway Gold in Alpharetta, Ga. He added, more bluntly: “The economy’s bad. People need money.” The shame of having to sell jewelery is why Irma Evearts and her husband, George, the owners of Evearts Gallery in Haddonfield, N.J., will often bring customers to a private room in the back of the store. Sometime they’ll even shut the whole store down. “” People come in for all reasons ,” she said. Meaning, hey-I-never-really-liked-this-bracelet-anyway-and-now’s-the-time-to-get-some-money-for-it reasons, and sadder reasons. “A lot of people don’t want to sell their jewelry, but they have to,” said Steven Bumb, part owner of Santa Cruz Pawn. “It’s their monthly mortgage payment or whatever the case is … We hear a lot of sad stories.” Also in the bad news department was this report from Barnstable, Mass.: “In a town where break-ins are commonplace — this past weekend there were three break-ins and two attempts — drugs are a key driver of jewelry thefts, not the price of gold. ” Meaning the rash of burglaries is completely unrelated to soaring gold prices? “The nitwits stealing the gold don’t really follow the commodities market,” noted Sean Sweeney of the Barnstable police department. As sad stories go, there may be none sadder than this dispatch from Connecticut’s “gold coast”, the ribbon of super-wealthy suburbia stretching from the Westchester border to Westport. There, people in the habit of buying $10,000 Swiss-made watches must now steel themselves for the possibility of paying, oh, slightly more. As Terry Betteridge, of Betteridge Jewelers in Greenwich, reported, “Customers of ours are very concerned.” However, gold’s soaring price has had brighter consequences for some: Across the country, women have been holding “gold parties” at their homes, inviting friends to dig into their jewelry chests for whatever pieces they can stand to part with. Licensed dealers arrive with scales, and the guests leave with cash. “Gold parties are actually pretty fun,” said Brian Weinberg, the owner of the Alpharetta shop. “People have sold things that you know they had no intention of selling. A girl might be wearing something an ex-boyfriend gave her and when she sees it’s worth 500 bucks she cares even less about him than she did before.” For most Americans, though, this latest gold rush appears to be no more a cause for celebration than the last one was for old John Sutter. “So soon as the secret was out my laborers began to leave me,” Sutter wrote. Sutter eventually left the trading post himself and tried to make a go of gold-digging, but the expedition was doomed by his reliance on a drunken, duplicitous workforce. “Instead of being rich,” he wrote, “I am ruined.”

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Srinivasan Pillay: Capitalism Revisited: Why Society Matters

April 18, 2011

What does it mean to be a successful capitalist? Until recently, capitalism simply referred to “for-profit” businesses that were privately owned. Conscious capitalism, a recent extension of this idea, is a movement that recognizes that this profit can create value for stakeholders and customers alike, and in the process, also creates long-term value for investors. (1) These value propositions are based on the notion that businesses can invest in a higher purpose and in so doing create economic, psychological and spiritual wealth for customers. When business owners are faced with how to inject their approaches with these societal considerations, the immediate response is usually one of inertia because the “Pollyanna” approach of catering to society seems to be a luxury, in a world where tightening economies threaten the survival of any business. But recent studies have shown that there may in fact be a business case for catering to societal needs such that both the buyer and the seller emerge as winners. “Doing good” is not simply a matter of philanthropy, but also a way of building customer loyalty and building a reputation. (2) From a brain perspective, there are several reasons why this may be the case. Even when customers do not overtly register a service that takes their needs into account, the brain may register this intention outside of consciousness. This purpose that may trickle down from the business owner to the sales person is potentially detectable by customers at an unconscious level. Studies imply that “mirror neurons” in customers may in fact be able to read the intentions of sales people automatically through a brain mechanism involving the frontal and parietal lobes. (3, 4) It may be that based on the way we ourselves act, our brains can read the intentions of others. (5) At an unconscious level, trust may also encourage approach-related behaviors. Our brains are wired to approach people in whom we trust since trust deactivates the fear center of the brain — the amygdala — thereby encouraging a potential customer to engage more. (6) Any marketer would know that the more you can capture the attention of customers, the greater your chance of selling the goods you offer. If you, for example, provide some but not all information pertinent to a food product that you are selling, studies imply that the brain may detect this uncertainty, and without explicit knowledge, may activate the fear center in response to hidden ambiguities. (7) Being more explicit so that the customer has a better idea of risk may have less of an aversive effect. If one person reacts to this ambiguity by avoiding this product or business, other people may “pick up” this attitude and potential “herd behavior” could drive people away from a product or business. A recent study showed that “herd behavior” in stock-picking for example, occurs because part of the brain’s reward center (the ventral striatum) participates in what we call social decision-making. (8) Other people’s decisions can influence our own. Given these brain-based findings, what can businesses do to optimize customer loyalty and adherence to potentially increase sales? Firstly, building businesses that customers can trust will disengage the brain’s fear center. Thus, when businesses are composing heir mission statements, asking how the purpose of the business will truly serve people is critical. Secondly, since mirror neurons may be able to pick up intentions, CEOs should ensure that the sales force is aligned with the higher purpose of the business. Thirdly, businesses should avoid “double messages” and seek to represent the purpose in a way in which it dos not engage the fear brain. And last but not least, businesses should seek to correct early oversights that could eventually drive people away in herds due to the way the brain’s reward system is wired. While further brain-imaging studies would lend more weight to these preliminary findings, the issue of conscious capitalism has a growing case in favor of it. In fact, I am honored to be part of a thoughtful and distinguished group of people who will contemplate this very question from multiple standpoints. At the Third Annual International Conference on Conscious Capitalism in Waltham, MA, researchers from a variety of fields will ask whether we can not only make a brain-based case, but a business-based case for such conscious capitalism. My prediction is that aligning our brains with business will help to achieve this goal. And understanding this more deeply will likely lead to more ideas to improve business outcomes. References 1. Frazee S. Integral Leadership Review. Catalyzing Conscious Capitalism Conference. Vol 9. 3 ed: Russ Volckmann, LeadCoach; 2011:1-5. 2. Agarwal PK, Tyagi AK, Kumar P, Swati G. Cause Related Marketing in India: A Conceptual Paradigm. Advances in Management. 2011;3(12):24-31. 3. Rizzolatti G, Sinigaglia C. The functional role of the parieto-frontal mirror circuit: interpretations and misinterpretations. Nat Rev Neurosci. Apr 2010;11(4):264-274. 4. Bonini L, Rozzi S, Serventi FU, Simone L, Ferrari PF, Fogassi L. Ventral premotor and inferior parietal cortices make distinct contribution to action organization and intention understanding. Cereb Cortex. Jun 2009;20(6):1372-1385. 5. Kaplan JT, Iacoboni M. Getting a grip on other minds: mirror neurons, intention understanding, and cognitive empathy. Soc Neurosci. 2006;1(3-4):175-183. 6. Todorov A, Baron SG, Oosterhof NN. Evaluating face trustworthiness: a model based approach. Soc Cogn Affect Neurosci. Jun 2008;3(2):119-127. 7. Schultz W, Preuschoff K, Camerer C, et al. Explicit neural signals reflecting reward uncertainty. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. Dec 12 2008;363(1511):3801-3811. 8. Burke CJ, Tobler PN, Schultz W, Baddeley M. Striatal BOLD Response Reflects the Impact of Herd Information on Financial Decisions. Front Hum Neurosci. 2010;4:48.

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IMF Nations Discuss ‘Significant Risks’ Of Rising Global Food Prices

April 17, 2011

WASHINGTON (Lesley Wroughton and Isabel Versiani) – International Monetary Fund member countries sought to bridge sharp differences over the global economy, acknowledging that rising inflation in emerging markets poses a risk to rich countries too. Addressing one of their biggest challenges, the 187 IMF nations on Saturday recognized the alarm among developing countries about huge inflows of speculative cash that are stoking their growth but also their inflation rates. “When inflation goes up in emerging markets, it’s not just an emerging market problem, it’s a global inflation and possibly interest rate problem,” said Singapore Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who chairs the IMF’s steering committee. Top finance officials, in Washington for a twice-yearly meeting of the IMF, argued over the dangers posed by high government debt and super-low interest rates in sluggish, rich countries and the risk of overheating in developing economies. “It’s one of the most difficult policy moments, one of the most complex challenges I’ve ever seen, certainly in my lifetime,” Angel Gurria, head of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, told Reuters. The increased focus on the pitfalls in the policies of wealthy nations is part of a shift at the IMF to be more attentive to increasingly influential emerging powers. Countries such as Brazil have struggled to cope with waves of yield-chasing “hot money” which pushes up inflation. World Bank President Robert Zoellick called rising food prices “the biggest threat to the world’s poor.” The World Bank estimates another 10 percent rise in the food price index could add 10 million more people to the 44 million already thrust into poverty over the last year. “We risk losing a generation,” Zoellick said. Aware of stiff opposition in some emerging countries to any limits on how they manage the inflows that drive up prices, IMF members said the policies that lead investors to chase higher returns in other emerging economies also need oversight. Tharman said inflation in the developing world, if unchecked, could spread to rich economies already shouldering large deficits. That would push up borrowing costs and threaten the recovery from the worst global recession in decades. “We have learned from painful experience in the last few years that nothing is isolated and that risk in one region…. rapidly gets transmitted to the rest of the world,” he said. The IMF committee said the global economy was strengthening but that policy action was needed given “significant risks.” It also sought proposals to strengthen IMF surveillance of “countries that pose the largest systemic risks.” The Group of 20 developed and emerging economies on Friday delayed a decision on contentious guidelines for when countries may use capital controls. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said “it seems vital to have a common set of rules.” France chairs the G20 this year and is seeking a deal on capital controls in time for a G20 leaders summit in November. The G20 did agree on Friday to a plan that could put more pressure on the United States to fix its deficits as well as push other leading economies, including China, to address their own shortcomings. Gurria said “sometime in the fall or this time next year, maybe inflation will have a higher profile” in G20 talks. IMF SHIFT ON CAPITAL CONTROLS The IMF this month endorsed use of capital controls, once considered anathema to its free-market philosophy. Advanced countries want to establish a framework to monitor their use, an approach emerging markets oppose. “Ironically, some of the countries that are responsible for the deepest crisis since the Great Depression and have yet to solve their own problems are eager to prescribe codes of conduct to the rest of the world,” Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said. Brazil, with one of world’s highest official interest rates at 11.75 percent, is among the countries that have used taxes and other measures to curb inflows. But rate hikes designed to cool growth end up attracting still more money from abroad. U.S. and other rich countries have long argued that emerging countries can combat inflows and price pressures by allowing their currencies to strengthen against the dollar. China, the world’s biggest exporter, has rebuffed acute U.S. pressure to let the yuan rise more rapidly, though Premier Wen Jiabao this week said the country should resort to more exchange rate flexibility to combat rapidly rising prices. Consumer price increases accelerated in both China and India in the year to March. GETTING FISCAL HOUSES IN ORDER Some finance officials said ultra-loose monetary policies and rising budget deficits in the United States and other advanced countries posed the main threat to global recovery. “The fiscal situation in the advanced economies gives us great concern, and it is in this area that we see the major risks to the global economy,” said Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin. The IMF this week noted that the U.S. budget gap was on course to hit 10.8 percent of economic output this year, tying Ireland for the highest ratio of deficit to total output among advanced economies. It urged Washington to tighten its belt. At Saturday’s meeting, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the United States was “committed to fiscal reforms that will restrain spending and reduce deficits while not threatening the economic recovery.” Leaders also fretted about fiscally strapped euro zone countries and their ability to refinance their massive debts. (Reporting by Reuters IMF/G20 team; Writing by Steven C. Johnson; Editing by William Schomberg and Leslie Adler) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Increase demand over Aston Martin car in India

April 17, 2011

Increase demand over Aston Martin car in India

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Howard Steven Friedman: 10 Largest Economies in the World

April 15, 2011

The ten largest national economies in the world comprise nearly 70% of the entire world’s economy. Of these ten countries, four are in Europe, three are in the Americas and three are in Asia. The GDP per capita is greater than $30,000 for seven of the top ten countries with Brazil, China and India having significantly lower GDP per capita. The United States has the largest economy — about the same size as the second (China), third (Japan) and fourth (Germany) largest economies combined. Many economists project that China will supplant the United States as the largest economy in the world within the next few decades. Because China’s population is about 4 times larger than that of the United States, equal size economies would mean that China’s GDP per capita would reach about one-fourth that of the United States. China’s GDP per capita is currently about one-tenth that of the United States. Note: GDP has a number of limitations as a measure of economic strength but is still the most commonly cited measure of economic size. This article uses nominal GDP as reported by the IMF (2010). Nominal GDP refers to the GDP evaluated at current market exchange rates. An alternative is the Purchase Price Parity (PPP) which is a theoretical construct that seeks to represent the exchange rate that would allow for a basket of goods to cost the same in different countries. PPP can vary based on the basket of goods sold and have sometimes undergone major adjustments such as in 2005 when China’s PPP was adjusted by 40%.

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