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(MENAFN – Qatar News Agency) China’s Petroleum and chemical industry output is expected to increase at an annual rate of 13% over the12th Five-year Plan 2011-2015, the Ministry of Industry and …

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China’s Chemical Industry Output to Reach 14 trillion yuan by 2015

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Wall Street Slashed Thousands Of Jobs Last Month

by Reuters on January 19, 2012

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Jan 19 (Reuters) – Wall Street axed 2,000 workers in December as poor profits led companies to slice expenses, the biggest reduction since last summer when the industry released its summer interns, James Brown, a labor market analyst with the New York Department of Labor, said on Thursday. Because banks and brokerages have announced tens of thousands of layoffs around the globe, but not identified where the layoffs would occur, this trend might continue in New York City because it is a global financial center. The drop in the ranks of bankers, traders and brokers will compress the city’s tax revenues because Wall Street is the wellspring of its economy. December’s job losses clipped the total number of securities and commodities brokers to 166,900 positions from November, according to the state labor report. The much bigger overall financial sector laid off 3,400 people in December though this sector typically hires 2,000 people in December, the labor report said. The seasonal leisure and hospitality industry, which usually adds jobs in December, instead cut 3,900 workers. The bright spot was business and professional services, which hired 5,000 people in December. That topped the 10-year average monthly gain of 4,000 jobs, the labor report said. “With a strong rebound in 2010 and 2011, this sector has recouped all of its losses, reaching the all-time high in employment last seen in July 2008,” the report said. Still, New York City’s unemployment rate crept up one-tenth of a percentage point to 9 percent in December from November. The year-ago rate was slightly lower at 8.8 percent. “In a recovery, I’d rather it was trending down rather than slowly rising, especially as the national rate has started moving down,” Brown said. “We’re having at best average job growth; to really get the unemployment rate moving down you need sustained growth,” he said. New York state’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 8 percent from November. It stood at 8.2 percent a year ago. (Reporting By Joan Gralla; Editing by James Dalgleish)

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Wall Street Slashed Thousands Of Jobs Last Month

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Phil Simon: The Paradox of CES 2012

January 16, 2012

I just returned from CES 2012 and have had time to digest my first trip to the industry’s dog and pony show. In a word, it was a little overwhelming. After a few days of reflection, though, my mind seems stuck on one thing — specifically, which companies weren’t in attendance (at least as exhibitors, anyway). Yes, Apple is a perennial no-show at CES. No surprise here. But what about Amazon, Facebook, and Google? These four companies are, in their own ways, each driving the current technology revolution. As I write in The Age of the Platform , today everyone’s talking about the Gang of Four — and for good reason. By everyone , I don’t just mean attendees. I mean the other exhibitors as well. Consider a few examples. TV manufacturers were bragging that their new units will ship with Facebook integration so you can “watch” TV with your friends in far away places. Ditto being able to view YouTube videos with just a click or two. Amazon’s Kindle Fire is hardly the only tablet that lets you instantly easily purchase a movie, book, or album from its massive selection. Even cars will soon allow you to download apps for them. (Frequent question at the event: So, it’s like iTunes, right?) And let’s not forget the myriad iExhibitors that made iStuff: extensions, hardware, and other add-ons for Apple products. iShower and iGrill  were my two personal favorites. Perhaps there’s something to be said for not being at CES. Why else would stalwart Microsoft announce that 2012 was the last year that it would maintain a physical presence ? And I’m hardly the only one noticing this trend. On Facebook,  Walt Mossberg  and some others exchanged thoughts over the elephants not in the room. Whey weren’t the really important companies there? Simon Says Samsung, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and the others attend CES because they have to attend. They have to be noticed. They have to get the word out. The benefits of attending exceed their considerable costs, even when considered against the backdrop of a crowded, expansive venue with competitors hawking their wares — often right beside them. Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google could easily justify descending upon Las Vegas, but why bother? These companies have long benefitted from their ubiquity. They are always on people’s minds and don’t need to drop $100,000 or so on a tricked-out booth with reality stars to prove it. As attendees walked around, they were no doubt adding new friends on Facebook, tweeting, taking pictures on their iPhones, etc. In other words, just because Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google weren’t there doesn’t mean that they weren’t there.

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Italy plans gradual liberalisation to boost economy

January 9, 2012

(MENAFN – Saudi Press Agency) Italy plans gradual liberalisations in sectors ranging from energy to professional services to revive its ailing economy, the Industry Minister said on Sunday, ahead of …

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Government Accounted For Nearly A Third Of All Layoffs In 2011: Report

January 5, 2012

For government workers and financial sector employees, last year was a particularly bad one — and 2012 likely won’t be much better. More jobs were lost in the government sector than any other industry in 2011, according to a report released Thursday from outplacement company Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The financial industry came in second place, followed by the retail sector. All in all, job cuts rose 14 percent in 2011, topping more than 600,000 by year’s end. It’s perhaps the last piece of bad news to come out of a year in which unemployment remained high , poverty grew more widespread and the economy came close to sliding back into a full-fledged recession. Government alone cut 183,064 jobs in 2011, the most in nine years, according to the Challenger report. Those layoffs accounted for 30 percent of the year’s 606,082 total job cuts. Meanwhile, the financial industry laid off 63,624 people for the year, or about 10.4 percent of the overall number. Together, job cuts in government and finance represented almost 41 percent of all layoffs in 2011. For anyone paying attention to Washington or Wall Street in recent months, these numbers likely won’t come as a surprise. As tax revenues dwindle and deficits continue to swell, state and local governments are in full cost-cutting mode , letting workers go at every opportunity in an attempt to bring public debts under control. Slashed government budgets have also resulted in a wave of layoffs in associated industries, like aerospace and energy. Wall Street, meanwhile, has had a rocky year, with financial companies jettisoning employees — often by the thousands , and often very young ones — against a backdrop of eurozone anxiety and worldwide populist resentment . Layoffs were also high in the retail sector, which shed 50,946 jobs for the year. With millions of Americans out of work and millions more earning just enough to cover basic expenses — and often not even that — the retail industry is in a position of unique vulnerability at the moment. Job cuts were up 14 percent between 2011 and 2010, according to the Challenger report, though it notes that when compared to some other years of the past decade — such as 2001, when the Sept. 11 attacks hastened a contraction that was already in progress, or 2008, when the financial system stumbled and credit markets abruptly seized up — both 2010 and 2011 actually saw relatively few layoffs took place. Challenger Gray analysts have previously said that no part of the federal government can expect immunity from layoffs in 2012, even traditionally safe sectors like intelligence and defense. Indeed, President Obama is expected to address the Pentagon Thursday to discuss the logistics of paring back the Pentagon budget. Also of particular concern is the U.S. Postal Service, which could lose as many as 120,000 workers in the coming year, according to Challenger.

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Cigarette Maker Launches Tobacco Rights Website

January 2, 2012

RICHMOND, Va. — Cigarette maker Altria Group is giving consumers a new place to find out about tobacco-related public policy issues. The owner of the nation’s largest cigarette maker, Philip Morris USA, has launched a website called Citizens for Tobacco Rights. The website has information on both state and federal tobacco issues such as taxes, smoking bans and other regulation. It also provides consumers with a way to take action on tobacco-related issues. Altria, based in Richmond, Va., says it believes it is important for adult tobacco consumers to make their voices heard on issues that affect them. The company also owns Black and Mild cigar maker John Middleton, and U.S. Smokeless Tobacco Company, which makes Skoal and Copenhagen branded products. ___ Online:

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Raymond J. Learsy: The New York Times Continues to Pump Up the Price of Oil to the Oil Industry’s Joy

January 2, 2012

No critical commodity moves as much on rhetoric and supply and demand fundamentals, as does crude oil. Over the years few news services, perceived as being disinterested purveyors of news and information, have lent their imprimatur more to the upward distortion of oil prices than the New York Times . In keeping with what now has become a sorry tradition, the New York Times on Thursday gave the oil patch and its allied interests good reason to pop champagne corks two days early in celebration of the New Year. Assuming a mantle of authority, conveying to us as received wisdom from on high, the New York Times presented to is readership, packaged in the babble of well honed oil industry mantra, illuminations, the likes of which a well oiled oil industry flack would have been embarrassed to disseminate. We were to be instructed by the good scribes of the Times , in their lead story in the Business Section, that “Oil Prices Predicted to Stay Above $100 a Barrel Through Next Year.” The article ends “Consumers have this belief that prices will either go up or they will remain at elevated levels.” The reportage fills three quarters of a New York Times page in regaling us with reasons that at the very least “elevated levels” will remain, with the subtext that we should celebrate such an outcome, as prices might very well go higher. It was the kind of reporting that had the oil gang cheering, having recently reported bottom line record earnings with those oil prices at “current” levels (while the rest of the country is still in a deep funk). The article also made us feel better by pointing out that “The United States economy managed to cope this year despite triple digit prices for barrels of oil.” Such is the information we are fed by the New York Times ‘ scribes, seemingly safe at their business desk sinecures, frighteningly oblivious of a near nine percent unemployment rate throughout the land, the millions out of work not to speak of the millions evicted from their foreclosed homes, and not coping in the least. Other than references to foreign policy issues being played out, such as Iran’s threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz and all that would entail, the Times hastens to instruct us that oil prices have an innate right to hover at their current astronomical heights. This by citing that “Many governments in the Middle East spent heavily on social assistance programs in response to the unrest of the Arab Spring and are depending on higher prices to meet their budgets.” Now, does that make you feel warmer up there in Maine? And when it comes to higher prices no mention is made of the breakdown of our oversight agencies such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and its failure to rein in excessive speculation in oil prices. (Please see “Time to Dismiss The CFTC Chairman And His Commissioners” 12.27.11). It is not just my layman’s opinion, but much more significantly that of Rex Tillerson, CEO of the world’s largest oil giant, ExxonMobil, who to his great credit, in testimony before the Senate Finance Committee in May 2011 expressed his exasperation that the then current price of oil at $100/bbl incorporated some thirty to forty dollars in its price resulting from speculation (Please see “Are Our Leaders Hearing ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson 05.17.11) Nor did the article make any reference to that fundamental game changer, the vast deposits being discovered of low cost natural gas. Through new drilling techniques such as environmentally aware fracking, enormous reservoirs of shale gas have been identified in dimensions barely understood just a few years ago- enough to meet domestic needs for the next 150 years. The potential is so large, a consensus is building that it will lead to American energy independence. In years past, oil and natural gas prices moved up and down in near lockstep. Such was the case when oil prices peaked at $147/bbl in the summer of 2008 (helping to bring on the housing crisis and the financial meltdown in September of that year). The price of natural gas at that time was near $15 mmbtu. Today, while the price of oil rests near $100/bbl, as quoted on the New York Mercantile Exchange for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the price of natural has dropped to under $3 per mmbtu. At that price for natural gas the comparable energy quotient in a barrel of oil would bring its price down to less than $20 a barrel. Clearly, with a differential of this magnitude, and natural gas being environmentally friendlier than oil based commodities such as gasoline, some substitution will begin to weigh on the consumption of oil, whether in home heating or starting with the conversion of trucks to being powered by natural gas rather than gasoline/diesel. It is a trend only beginning now, that will have major impact on the need for, and consumption of crude oil in the years ahead. Yet here again, instead of reporting clearly on this development and its enormous potential, the New York Times engaged in reportage bordering on yellow journalism (Please see “New York Times Flays Natural Gas…”06.28.11) with two articles filled with conjecture bordering on disinformation: “Insiders Sound Alarm Amid a Natural Gas Rush 06.25.11,” and “Behind Veneer, Doubt on Future of Natural Gas” 06.26.11 placing the entire shale gas revolution into question, interjecting terminology such as ‘Ponzi Scheme’ ‘Dot-Com Bubble’ and on. This in the face of billions of dollars investment into the shale gas and shale oil plays by such ‘doubters’ as ExxonMobil, Shell, Chevron, the Norwegian national oil company Statoil, the Chinese government owned CNOOC, and Total, the French oil behemoth. The list goes on. But the Times instructed us otherwise, thereby helping to keep oil prices on the ascent by vesting us with the ignorance needed to accept high and manipulated oil prices unquestioningly. It has been a tradition of distortion or misinformation dating back years whether sweeping the manipulations of OPEC under the rug, or heralding the pronouncements of that oil price manipulator par excellence and OPEC’s premier protagonist Saudi Arabia, without a questioning eye. (Please see “The New York Times Continues Its Fawning Coverage of Saudi Oil Policies” 03.22.10) Sadly, the New York Times , on the issue of how oil prices are determined has become a leading apologist of industry excess, government connivance, seemingly oblivious to the distortion of pricing instigated by OPEC, the commodity exchanges with their nurturing of excess speculation, Wall Street and its feckless proprietary trading financed in large measure through beneficent government programs. Given its standing and the thrust of its coverage, the Times has become an important contributor to the public’s baleful acceptance of having its pockets picked by the oil interests the world over.

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U.S. Financial Sector By Far The Worst Performer In S&P 500 This Year

December 12, 2011

(Angela Moon and Ryan Vlastelica) – Even experienced Wall Street contrarians are eyeing the beaten-down U.S. financial sector warily. The sector is down 20 percent this year, by far the worst performer in the S&P 500. The weakness has been so pervasive that the S&P, which is down 1.8 percent in 2011, would be up 3.3 percent on the year if financials were excluded, according to Standard & Poor’s Equity Research. Most market participants agree these stocks are set for a rebound over the long term. They still appear too risky for short-term traders. Arguably, this is when intrepid bargain hunters who buy into investor fear would be snapping up the beaten-down sector. But the problems dogging banks all year – from the debt crisis in Europe to the bleak outlook for profits – do not appear to be abating. “Our job is to buy low and sell high. With financials, I’m still questioning, ‘What is low?’” said John Manley, chief equity strategist for Wells Fargo Advantage Funds in New York. The aversion to financials is great. Assets in bank-focused funds have dropped by 40 percent in the last six months, and the group is the only one of 10 S&P sectors trading at less than the value of the assets on their books. Market participants cite various reasons for financials to decline further, including regulations, weakness in the housing sector and fears linked to Europe’s escalating debt crisis. “Valuations are attractive, but there has to be a catalyst to move prices higher and I just don’t see that,” said Peter Coleman, director of research at JMP Securities in San Francisco. VALUATIONS In the last six months through the week ended December 7, the assets under management (AUM) in the U.S. financial/banking funds sector have dropped a net $8 billion, or nearly 40 percent, according to Thomson Reuters’ Lipper U.S. Fund Flows database. Assets in the sector hit a peak in February 2011 of nearly $23 billion in AUM. Since then, it’s been mostly outflows. Investors have remained skittish due to the worries about Europe. The predominant investing strategy this year has been to trade on macro events, specifically the euro zone debt crisis. Whenever the outlook for Europe worsens, the banks are punished, particularly brokerages such as Morgan Stanley and Jefferies & Co, on fears of exposure to Europe. It has contributed to high volatility in the sector. “The things that made these stocks cheap are still around. It’s still a risky business and you have no idea how bad business can get until they really get bad,” said Manley. That’s contributed to making banks more undervalued than any other sector based on anticipated growth. By StarMine’s current estimates, the financials are priced at 57 percent of their intrinsic value, compared with 72 percent for the S&P. Intrinsic value is where StarMine believes a stock should trade based on likely growth over the next decade. “If you have a three to five year timeline you’ll look back at today’s prices and wish you bought in, but I don’t see anything to move them higher over the next 12 months and I just can’t ignore the headwinds,” said Coleman. This is the reason the market capitalization of the bank sector is less than the value of the assets on their books. The combined market cap of the sector is $1.68 trillion, compared with book value of $1.95 trillion, according to StarMine. OPTIONS AND DOOM Even the options market does not suggest optimism for the future. Last week open interest on the Select Sector Financial SPDR fund , which tracks the S&P financial sector, reached its highest since the financial crisis. Put options outpaced call options by a ratio of 1.7, according to Interactive Brokers. Normally, the ratio is between 1 to 1.2. When Bank of America shares fell to a fresh two-year low of $5.03 last week, instead of betting on a rebound, option traders moved to hedge themselves against more declines. “There’s a group of high-quality banks that have bottomed, but Bank of America isn’t one of them,” said Marty Mosby, large-cap bank analyst at Guggenheim Partners in Memphis, Tennessee. Mosby listed Wells Fargo, US Bancorp and Bank of New York Mellon among those where “we haven’t yet reached an inflection point where their strong fundamentals will drag prices up in a risk-averse market.” Among individual names, the put-to-call open interest ratio on Goldman Sachs was 1.11 while Citigroup’s ratio was 0.62. “I think what you would find looking at trades on specific names is that there are traders positioning for a range of scenarios from recovery to disaster,” said Caitlin Duffy, Equity Options Analyst at Interactive Brokers. Even some of those speak positively about the banks are staying cautious. BNY Mellon’s wealth management core portfolio recently moved to a slight “overweight” position on the group due to the bad news already priced into the sector. “As a group, banks are fairly valued, however it’s understandable that we’re going to be cautious about moving to a large overweight at this time,” said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management in New York. “This could turn out to be an outstanding entry point, but it depends on your risk appetite… there could be more risk than potential reward.” (Reporting by Angela Moon and Ryan Vlastelica; Additional Reporting by Dan Bases; Editing by Andrew Hay) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Achille Bianchi: Social Entrepreneurship: A Budding Industry (of Sorts) in Detroit

December 1, 2011

My family has scant ties to the auto industry. We all drive foreign cars. Like most American families, we’re not fully American. My sister and I also did not grow up around parents who had corporate jobs — we were pretty blue-collar. Maybe it’s because I didn’t grow up in a GM or Ford household that I don’t believe big companies can solve the unemployment and jobs problem by adding, or subtracting, thousands of jobs at time. To me it makes more sense to create an environment where individuals are encouraged to create jobs based in their communities and on work and the skills they’re most comfortable with. The point is, no matter if your job comes from a CEO’s pen or your own hard work, we all work hard. To me, though, it’s not necessarily about how hard you work, but where you put your effort that counts for more than anything else. It’s hard to ignore the increasingly louder voices of the generations succeeding the baby boomers. While we’re not as experienced as them, we’re taking action and not asking for permission. We’re starting to feel the consequences of decades of their decision and policy making and some of those consequences hurt — a lot. If you live in Detroit and have tried starting a business or buying real estate or even tracking down meeting notes from a city council meeting, you’ve surely been led on a run-around and ultimately to frustration. I’m also sure I’m not the only person who’s had simple solutions to some of the problems that exist within these institutions. But sometimes it’s hard to get the city’s attention. This is the why so many grass-roots and socially progressive movements and organizations thrive and continue to thrive in Detroit. Their invention, innovation and efficiency spawns from a certain type of need that only specialized tools can fix. And the best part? If you’re motivated enough you can find ways to get paid to solve problems and build communities. Social entrepreneurs, as they are called, seek to not only generate profits through business ventures, but the emphasis relies much more heavily in establishing and nurturing hearty social values in the communities they serve. This kind of place-based problem solving and activism has been around for decades, and in Detroit especially. For Detroit entrepreneurs though, our work and business practices are steeped in diverse and dynamic social values, consciously or subconsciously. We’ve all been exposed to the hardships in this city and I’m sure many of us would be damned before starting an enterprise that wasn’t sensitive to our city’s context. It’s just not in us — that’s not why we’re here. Detroit and Michigan should be creating conditions that foster social entrepreneurs like those at the Heidelberg Project , Allied Media Projects , the Detroit Digital Justice Coalition (DDJC) , the Mt. Elliot Makerspace , the East Side Riders and others. Organizations like these start as modest ideas from one singular problem. In the DDJC’s case, it was lack of information in Detroit neighborhoods, whether from having no libraries or Internet, which got the problem-solving gears spinning. Now just a few years later and with $2 million in grant money, DDJC is able to employ a handful of full-time employees while tackling one of the most profound and fundamental problems in the city. They’re working fast, and they’re working efficiently and through community input and feedback, people are already beginning to benefit, too. With the authentic desire to build community and solve problems, it’s the local people who have the greatest handle on the solutions our communities seek. With the right values and tact, an abundance of talent and unprecedented access to affordable technology, Michigan and Detroit can realize the 3.0 future we all dream of — we just need to embrace the movement and encourage our representatives to put politics aside and to listen to us a little bit closer.

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Dean Garfield: Stop Scapegoating Tech

November 29, 2011

The Washington Post ‘s article “Cloud Centers Bring High-tech Flash, but Not Many Jobs to Beaten-down Towns” is simply sophomoric silliness masquerading as sophisticated news. The article weaves together a series of anecdotes to paint a picture that conveniently supports its premise: technology and the resulting productivity growth is a source of unemployment — particularly in the manufacturing sector. The inconvenient truth is that the facts contradict this story. Those who have spent time studying the issue, including a definitive report from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), conclude that “more rapid productivity growth leads to higher rather than lower employment in manufacturing.” The NBER study has been supported by economists at the Federal Reserve who write that, “a positive technology shock leads to a reduction in the unemployment rate that persists for several years, and likewise by the OECD in a definitive review of the studies on productivity and employment, Jobs Study: Facts, Analysis, Strategy. That report concluded that, technology “generally destroys lower wage, lower productivity jobs, while it creates jobs that are more productive, high-skill and better paid. Historically, the income-generating effects of new technologies have proved more powerful than the labor-displacing effects: technological progress has been accompanied not only by higher output and productivity, but also by higher overall employment.” It is true that for individual companies or industries, technology and higher productivity growth may lead to a loss of jobs. For example, there was a significant decline in employment in the typewriter manufacturing industry following the advent of the personal computer, but the spin-off benefits — employment and otherwise — from the PC industry are beyond dispute. We are saddened by the slow job creation in the U.S. but it is against our best interest to scapegoat the technology sector. The cause of lower employment over the last decade, including in the manufacturing sector, is not technology and higher productivity growth in the United States. Rather, the source is likely to be higher productivity growth, and more pronounced price declines, among foreign manufacturers that compete with U.S. companies. In China in particular, productivity has been rising and costs have been declining more rapidly than in the United States — particularly in industries such as consumer electronics and apparel, where China did not compete with the United States two decades ago. It is this loss of U.S. global competitiveness that is principal cause of anemic job growth. What the U.S. economy needs to restore job growth is a commitment to a national action plan focused on driving growth and creating jobs through making investments in basic research, science education, and R&D; enforcing our trade agreements and boosting our exports; lowering effective corporate tax rates; improving physical and digital infrastructure; and embracing the power of technology (particularly IT) to transform and to make more efficient entire sectors of the economy. The evidence is clear: technology is part of the job creation solution, not part of the problem. For more on this, look for the Information Technology Industry Foundation’s upcoming report on “America’s Competitiveness Crisis and the Anemic Job Recovery.”

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Christmas Tree Farmers Struggle After Historic Drought

November 25, 2011

NEW CANEY, Texas — Dry, brown grass crunches underfoot as David Barfield walks through his 45-acre Christmas tree farm pointing at evergreens covered with brittle, rust-colored needles. “Dead tree, dead tree, dead tree,” he says, shaking his head at dry timber he hoped would be chopped down by parents with excited children. Instead, Mother Nature delivered the Grinch in the form of a historic drought that has killed thousands of trees across Texas and Oklahoma. Some died of thirst. Others were destroyed by wildfires, whose breadth and intensity were magnified when wind swept the flames across parched landscape. Most farmers plan to import trees from North Carolina to supplement any they have left, said Marshall Cathey, president of the Texas Christmas Tree Growers Association. They say they aren’t planning to raise prices because consumers are reluctant to pay more than $40 or $50 for a Christmas tree, especially in the poor economy. But families hoping for a homegrown tree to cut down will have a harder time finding one, and dozens of farmers are struggling. Possibly most painful for these growers are the deaths of the youngest saplings, which guarantee the drought’s effect will be felt for years to come. “It’s depressing, it really is,” said Barfield, 53. “This was going to be our retirement.” He and his wife, Karen, 49, bought the farm about six years ago with dreams of retiring from Texas’ oil fields and spending their final years peddling the Christmas spirit with fresh-cut trees, marshmallow roasts and hayrides in a red-and-white sleigh. They planted 20 acres of evergreen trees. Now, barely two years after Karen Barfield retired to work the farm, she has returned full-time to her job selling explosion-proof enclosures to the oil industry. David Barfield has increased his hours doing part-time electronic work. Instead of selling some 400 homegrown trees as they do in a good year, they will be lucky to sell 100 – nearly all Frasier firs brought in from North Carolina. And they’re not certain that will be enough to cover their property taxes. Barfield says he can only charge $50 for a North Carolina fir – just $10 more than he pays for them. “Eight (trees) died within the last week,” Barfield said, continuing his walk through his farm in New Caney. “These were all green a week ago. The drought has been hurting us real bad.” But at least he and his wife have other income. Others have not fared as well. “We lost probably 90 percent of our trees,” said Jean Raisey, 79, who’s run a 10-acre Christmas tree farm in Purcell, Okla., with her husband since 1985. The other 10 percent are dying now, she said. “We’ve had to hire a contractor and pull all the dead and all the live trees,” she said. “And we’re out of business.” Cathey, who owns the 50-acre Elves Farm in Denison, Texas, a town about 75 miles north of Dallas, said he has spoken to many of Texas’ 120 Christmas tree farmers in recent months. Long stretches of triple-degree heat, he said, harmed the trees as much as the lack of rain. And the drought has been bad. In Texas, less than 11 inches of rain fell this year compared to an annual average of almost 24 inches. In Oklahoma, there has been about 18.7 inches of rain this year compared to a long-term average of 30 inches. All trees have been hard-hit by the lack of rain. “There’s hundreds of thousands of trees dying,” said Travis Miller, a drought expert at Texas A&M University. “We’re looking at a … one-in-a-500-year kind of drought, and so it’s weeding out the ones that can’t survive this kind of extreme conditions,” he added. For evergreens, which usually prefer wetter, more temperate climates, the struggle may be greater than for drought-resistant plants, such as the juniper brush, although it too is dying in Texas this year. Farmers who planted evergreens native to Afghanistan – and accustomed to a desert climate – have had greater success than those who planted trees from the northeast United States. Those who irrigated also are having more modest success, although that costs – about $1,200 a month on a midsized farm. Jan Webb, owner of the Double Shovel Christmas Tree Farm in West Texas – one of the driest areas of the state – said her Afghans have done well. Of the 400 she planted last year, only about 50 died. On the other hand, none of the 400 Leyland Cypress she planted survived. It takes three to five years to grow an evergreen to a marketable size. Webb planted her first tree about three years ago and was hoping to open for the first time next Christmas, but with the drought, it will be at least two years before she has a homegrown tree to sell. “We can’t sell what’s from our farm right now because they’re too small,” she said. Yet the farmers are determined children will be able to see trees cut for Christmas – even if they’re North Carolina firs liberally placed in Texas soil. There will be hayrides and picnics. Christmas carols will ring out and colorful lights will cover the bare branches. Bah humbug to the drought, they say. ___ Ramit Plushnick-Masti can be followed on Twitter at https://twitter.com/RamitMastiAP

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Black Friday 2011: Millions More Plan To Shop This Year, Survey Finds

November 17, 2011

Americans plan this year to go shopping in greater numbers on Black Friday, the biggest shopping day of the year and unofficial kick-off the holiday spending season. Some 152 million shoppers say they will hit stores on November 25, the day after U.S. Thanksgiving, up 10.1 percent from 138 million people last year, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation, an industry group. For the November-December period, the NRF previously forecast retail sales would rise 2.8 percent to $465.6 billion, in what executives and analysts have said will be a more competitive season than last year. Major retailers are leaving little to chance. For instance, discount retailer Target Corp and department stores Macy’s Inc and Kohl’s Corp are opening their doors earlier than ever, at midnight on Thanksgiving. The survey, which polled 8,502 people between November 1 and November 8, also found that 17.3 percent of people will look for Black Friday deals on retailers’ Facebook page and 11.3 percent on group buying sites such as Groupon Inc and Living Social. (Reporting by Phil Wahba in New York; editing by Andre Grenon) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Ohio Tea Party Turns To New Anti-Union Measure

November 11, 2011

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Just two days after Ohio voters overwhelmingly rejected a state law curbing collective bargaining rights, a tea party coalition said it will push an amendment to the state’s constitution that would prevent workers covered by union contracts from being required to join unions or pay dues. Chris Littleton, the co-founder of the Ohio Liberty Council, told reporters Thursday the group has submitted an initial 1,000 signatures and the proposed wording for its right-to-work amendment to the state’s attorney general. The group needs state officials’ approval of the phrasing and signatures before it can start collecting the roughly 386,000 valid signatures needed by July to get the question on 2012 ballots. If the group fails to get the question before voters during next year’s presidential election, it would continue its push in 2013, Littleton said. “We’re in this for the long haul,” he said. The proposed amendment comes on the heels of Tuesday’s election, when more than 61 percent of voters rejected a law that restricted the collective bargaining rights of Ohio’s more than 350,000 public workers. Forty-six percent of registered voters turned out, setting a 20-year record in terms of voter percentage and an all-time high in total people voting in an off-year general election. Labor groups and opponents of the law poured more than $24 million into the repeal campaign. The defeat of the Ohio union law marked one of the biggest victories in decades for the labor movement. Tim Burga, president of the Ohio AFL-CIO, said in a statement that the proposed amendment was “an even more broad assault on workers’ rights” than the union law, and that the union wouldn’t shy away from defending workers’ rights once more. Democrats at the Statehouse immediately criticized the proposal. “Right-to-work doesn’t guarantee rights to the worker,” said state Rep. Tracy Heard of Columbus, contending unions have made it easier for women and minorities to earn a better wage. Littleton said the ballot initiative is about freedom of choice in the workplace, not collective bargaining. The proposal would amend the state’s constitution to say that no law, rule or agreement should require employees to join a union or pay dues, as a condition of their employment. “This has everything to do with freedom for the worker,” Littleton said. “It doesn’t address anything else except for the idea that you should be free to choose whether or not you want to participate in a labor organization.” The union law rejected by voters included a provision to prevent nonunion employees affected by contracts from paying so-called “fair share” fees to union organizations. That part of the overhaul didn’t receive as much attention during the repeal effort compared with other parts that banned public worker strikes and prevented unions from negotiating health care or pension benefits. Republican Gov. John Kasich and GOP leaders in the Legislature had urged voters to keep the collective bargaining law in place, contending that it would help local governments and communities better control their costs. Following Tuesday’s election results, they said they would spend time contemplating how best to take the state forward. With the announcement of the right-to-work amendment effort, the Kasich administration, Senate President Tom Niehaus and House Speaker William Batchelder repeated the need to reflect on the election’s outcome. “Now’s not the time to be taking up or considering these types of issues,” said Kasich spokesman Rob Nichols. Niehaus said in a statement that lawmakers needed to work to build consensus for what steps to take next. “We just finished a very divisive and contentious election, and Ohioans made it clear they want us to be more deliberate in our approach to major reform,” Niehaus said. The Ohio Liberty Council, a coalition of more than 60 tea party groups, sees a chance for success based on Tuesday’s election results. Nearly 66 percent of voters supported their amendment to let the state opt out of a provision of the 2009 federal health care overhaul, which mandates that most Americans purchase health care. “People don’t like the idea of compulsory participation – that I’m mandated or forced to do something against my will,” Littleton said. The Columbus-based 1851 Center for Constitutional Law and Associated Builders and Contractors of Ohio, which represents nonunion construction firms, have joined with the Ohio Liberty Council in the effort. Twenty-two states have right-to-work laws that prohibit union fees from being a condition of employment.

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Nancy Hill: Capturing the Spirit of Advertising Week

October 3, 2011

For eight years, we’ve gathered for this fantastic week that brings together the best-in-class from all advertising disciplines in the spirit of celebration, cooperation and collaboration. I love this week. And one of the biggest reasons why I love it is that it brings me back to the early days when I first became passionate about our industry, a passion that remains just as strong today. I wasn’t in New York or Chicago, the hotspots of the biz. I was in a smaller community at Doner, in the wonderful city of Baltimore and just starting out in the business. We were in the middle of what became a case study pitch. All industry eyes were on Doner. The community was rooting for us. But best of all, everyone who was at the agency worked together for a single cause and purpose. It is that spirit of cooperation and camaraderie that completely hooked me. It was a heady feeling. That same spirit is at the very heart of Advertising Week. And while you’re racing around New York City for the many events, I want you stop and, pardon me, remember to smell the roses. Because you will be surrounded by like people, people gathered together by a common passion. And passion is the driving force of creativity. Now I want to jump on my soap box to dispel what I consider to be a myth that holds too many of us back: “No one likes creativity by committee. It never works.” I say no! Collaboration CAN work. It DOES work and it WILL work… but we have to make it work, and provide the proper dose of direction and leadership to do so. It’s like Harry Truman once said: “There is no limit to what you can accomplish if you don’t care who gets the credit.” I speak quite often at industry events, and I am always asked about the demise of the AOR arrangement and the rise of multiple and varied agency/client relationship types. The bottom line is that clients want the best work, and they are willing to look wherever to find it. There are many ways that clients usually get that best work. Probably the most detrimental to our industry is when a client thinks that they can just hire a bunch of different agencies, command them to collaborate, and leave it up to them to figure it out. It’s kind of like putting 12 cats in a bag, closing it up and waiting a day to see who is still alive at the end. Nobody likes to wrangle cats. But there is something to be learned, though, from this “agency soup” approach. It’s not just the ingredients. And it’s not just assuming collaboration and cooperation will magically happen. There’s another “C” — clarity. Without clearly defined leadership and direction, collaboration just won’t happen and it certainly won’t lead to a desirable outcome. Keep that in mind this Advertising Week. We come together so easily to celebrate. Why can’t we apply that same culture to every business practice and creative brainstorm, too?

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SOUR GRAPES: New Wine Industry Report Highlights Looming Challenges

September 21, 2011

DAVIS, Calif. — A new wine industry report indicates that wine grapes will be in short supply over the next few years, but it won’t mean higher prices. According to two surveys released by the University of California, Davis’ School of Management, wine industry professionals show concern for grape shortages because of recent cooler weather. But surveyed executives say discount pricing will remain in the foreseeable future because consumers and retailers have grown accustomed to lower prices prompted by the poor economy. Despite the challenges, the report says 71 percent of respondents believe the economic health of the wine industry would show improvement in the coming year. The school’s dean, Robert Smiley, says that reflects a level of confidence that hasn’t been seen since 2007. Smiley presented the findings Tuesday at a Napa wine industry symposium.

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PE firms circling AOL turn attention to Yahoo

September 17, 2011

By Jennifer Saba NEW YORK (Reuters) – The troubles at Yahoo Inc are proving to be a headache for AOL, that other deeply challenged Internet company trying to turn around its fortunes. Interest in AOL from private equity firms ramped up after the company’s stock plummeted about 30 percent on dismal earnings results last month. Allen & Co and Bank of America Securities are advising AOL on strategic alternatives, including a possible sale, sources said. Problem is, the private equity firms have now turned their attention to Yahoo, which is reportedly seeking its own sale after firing Chief Executive Carol Bartz on September 6 and attracting the ire of activist investor Daniel Loeb. AOL declined to comment for this story. Sources said the top-tier private equity firms that were looking at AOL are now setting their sights on the company famous for its purple logo and peppy exclamation point, viewing it as more valuable and housing more attractive assets than AOL. “Yahoo has jumped to the forefront,” said one industry source familiar with the situation. Indeed, according to this industry source and one other source, several PE firms have lines out to at least two media companies to see if they are willing to partner on a bid for all or pieces of Yahoo. Both sources declined to name the PE firms or media companies. AOL and Yahoo are two vastly different business in terms of market value — roughly $1.6 billion and $19 billion respectively — meaning that there are different pools of potential buyers for each asset. The big private equity firms with massive amounts of money under management are able to go after Yahoo on their own or with a strategic partner. The smaller private equity firms are better equipped to digest AOL and likely couldn’t pursue Yahoo absent being part of a consortia of buyers. Or, to put it another way, AOL’s second-class assets are now only attracting the interest of second-tier buyers. Indeed, only when compared to AOL does Yahoo come out the winner. “They are both in rough shape, but AOL has more structural challenges than Yahoo,” said Ross Sandler an analyst with RBC Capital Markets. Compounding AOL’s problems is the fact that its lucrative subscriber dial-up business is also one of greatest liabilities. Sandler said dial-up is partly responsible for a 25 percent year-on-year decline in AOL’s free cash flow. “At Yahoo you don’t have those issues,” he said. To make up for the loss of subscription revenue, AOL is training its sights on advertising sales. But even that is having set backs. Its launch last September of a more expensive large ad-format with interactive panels that dominate a Web called Project Devil is still trying to gain traction on Madison Avenue. Under Armstrong, AOL has also developed a penchant for investing in projects that have yet to pay out. Case in point: Patch.com. AOL has shoveled roughly $160 million into the network of more than 800 neighborhood-oriented websites dedicated to local news, many of which are less than a year old. Yet Patch is on track to lose $140 million to $150 million this year, estimates Sandler. Though expensive, at least AOL’s attention-grabbing acquisition of the Huffington Post for $315 million is delivering returns since the business is profitable. Yahoo’s coming on the block couldn’t have come at a worse time for Armstrong. The former Google Inc ad sales executive has seen his reputation dented since taking over AOL. According to one of the industry sources, Armstrong’ reputation has taken as much of a hit as Bartz’s, even before he bungled the dust-up that resulted in TechCrunch founder Michael Arrington’s ouster. (Reporting by Jennifer Saba; Editing by Peter Lauria and Richard Chang)

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Japanese Minister Resigns

September 11, 2011

(MENAFN – Qatar News Agency) Japan’s Industry Minister Yoshio Hachiro has resigned from his post after making remarks that angered and displeased people affected by the crisis at the Fukushima …

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Tony Hayward, Ex-British Petroleum CEO, Set To Return To Oil Industry

September 6, 2011

LONDON (Tom Bergin) – Tony Hayward, who stepped down as BP (BP.L) boss in the wake of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, will imminently seal his return to the oil industry, by buying into Turkey’s Genel Enerji, in a deal valuing the target at around $4 billion, a source close to the matter said on Tuesday. Vallares, an acquisition vehicle established by Hayward and financier Nat Rothschild, has agreed in principle to a tie-up with Genel Enerji, which owns oil fields in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq, and is expected to announce a deal in the coming days, the source said. The exact terms of the deal are unclear but it is expected to net Hayward and his Vallares co-founders tens of millions of pounds. In June, Vallares raised 1.35 billion pounds ($2.2 billion) from investors to target emerging-market oil assets. The plan was to offer owners of oilfields a shortcut to a London Stock Exchange (LSE) listing, thus enabling them to raise finance to fund the development of their assets. Hayward said he would be CEO of any acquired company and has assembled a team of big names around him, including former deputy CEO of BP and Chairman of Petrofac, Rodney Chase. Hayward, Rothschild and the other Vallares founders, are entitled to a 6.67 percent stake in the enlarged group, following the completion of a deal, and this would be worth around $300 million if Vallares buys all of Genel Enerji. The Turkish group, which is controlled by one of Turkey’s richest men, Mehmet Emin Karamehmet, was valued at $3.3 billion to $3.6 billion in 2009, when it announced a planned merger with London-listed Heritage Oil (HOIL.L), which subsequently collapsed. Since then, political progress between the Kurdish regional government and Baghdad has led to a significant increase in the value of Kurdish oil assets, which would support a valuation above $4 billion. Genel Enerji said in May it was considering selling a stake to an investment partner, seeking to capitalize on a surge in interest in Kurdistan in the past year, to raise capital to help fund developments. A second source familiar with the matter said the Turkish group was close to announcing a deal. Genel Enerji and Vallares declined to comment. Last month, Reuters reported the two sides were nearing a deal. The tie-up will need to be blessed by the Kurdish Regional Government. The KRG oil minister, Ashti Hawrami, is due to attend an energy gathering in Istanbul on Thursday, according to the agenda for the event. Cukurova Group, controlled by Karamehmet, owns around 56 percent of Genel Enerji, while the family of its CEO, Mehmet Sepil, owns around 44 percent. (Reporting by Tom Bergin. Editing by Chris Wickham and Jane Merriman) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Tough Reality For Obama As 2012 Campaign Ramps Up

September 5, 2011

By CHARLES BABINGTON, ASSOCIATED PRESS (AP) WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama faces a long re-election campaign having all but given up on the economy rebounding in any meaningful way before November 2012. His own budget office predicts unemployment will stay at about 9 percent, a frightening number for any president seeking a second term. Obama’s prospects aren’t entirely grim, however. The GOP, heavily influenced by the tea party, may nominate someone so deeply flawed or right-leaning that, Democrats hope, Obama can persuade Americans to give him a second chance rather than risk the alternative. Democrats say the man who ran on hope and change in 2008 will have to claw his way toward a second term with a sharply negative campaign. The strengths and weaknesses of his prospects seem clear. Next year’s unemployment rate is likely to be the highest in a presidential election since 1940. But the leading Republican contenders have denigrated Social Security, switched positions on critical issues and done other things that might make them ripe targets for Obama’s well-funded campaign. Democratic strategist Doug Hattaway says GOP candidates, including Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, may turn off independent voters with their embrace of tea party stands on taxes, spending and program cuts. Obama “should lump them all together and make them answer for their slash-and-burn politics,” said Hattaway, a former top aide to Hillary Rodham Clinton, Obama’s rival for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination. To do so, Hattaway said, Obama must link the candidates to congressional Republicans, blamed by Democrats for the nation’s stalled job growth and recent downgrade of U.S. creditworthiness. Making the connection might not prove easy. Obama’s potential challengers have avoided getting dragged into details of the bitter Capitol Hill fights over deficit spending. At least for now, they can lob criticisms at the president while offering few specific, measurable alternatives. “President Obama oversaw an economy that created zero jobs last month, and that is unacceptable,” Romney said Friday. But the influence of the tea party and other conservative groups may give Obama some openings, by pushing the GOP field so far to the right that the candidates risk alienating vital independent voters. In a debate last month, the top contenders pledged to oppose a deficit-reduction plan even if it cut $10 in spending for every $1 raised by new taxes. Perry, who entered the race after that debate, also has taken a tough stand against higher taxes. Obama’s team says independents, who might pay scant attention to ideologically driven primaries, will find such positions extreme when they compare the eventual GOP nominee and the president. Political aide David Axelrod hinted that Obama will try to sharpen his differences with Republicans who insist on spending cuts in virtually every area and who refuse to let tax cuts expire, as scheduled, for the wealthiest. It’s hard “to create an economy in which people can get decent jobs and raise a family at the same time we’re cutting back on our commitment to spending on education and research and development that will create innovation and jobs,” Axelrod said in an interview. The Republicans’ “essential message is, let’s go back to the policies that helped get us in this mess,” he said, citing Wall Street deregulation and corporate tax breaks. If GOP lawmakers, backed by the presidential hopefuls, continue to thwart Obama’s bid to mix targeted spending cuts with tax increases, Axelrod said, “we’re going to take our case to the American people.” Recent polls underscore Obama’s challenge. A Pew Research poll found that 39 percent of independents approve of his job performance, while 52 percent disapprove. An AP-GfK poll showed a sharp erosion of support for Obama among white voters and women. Less than half of all women and less than half of all men approve of the job he’s doing, and only 50 percent of women say he deserves re-election. But the same polls show that far more voters blame former President George W. Bush more than Obama for the nation’s economic woes. Whether that sentiment lingers for 16 more months could prove crucial. Hattaway said Obama must start by winning back moderates and motivating “millennials,” voters in their 20s and early 30s. “The economy is not going to come roaring back before the election, so he has to give them a vision” for a future with jobs and with social justice for groups, including gays, Hattaway said. Obama also must try to minimize the frustration among his liberal base supporters, many of whom feel he is too quick to compromise. Some complained loudly Friday when Obama yanked a proposal to tighten federal smog standards. Questions about the environment, war and foreign affairs will figure into the 2012 race. But all parties agree jobs are the overriding issue. Analysts differ on what level of unemployment is politically fatal. President Ronald Reagan handily won re-election in 1984 with unemployment at 7.2 percent, which was down slightly from the rate at the start of his term. President Jimmy Carter lost when unemployment was at 7.5 percent and President George H.W. Bush lost with a similar level, but both faced other problems as well. Hopeful Democrats say Obama can survive next year if people feel growth is coming soon. Another way to survive is uglier: admitting the economy is a mess, but pressing the case that the GOP alternative is so unacceptable that the incumbent should stay in office, even with no recovery in sight. Obama’s aides say the election will be “a choice, not a referendum.” That hints at a bruising effort to divert attention from the president’s record and focus on what the Obama campaign believes are the GOP nominee’s chief shortcomings. Democratic optimists feel the GOP nominating process will play into that strategy. The Democratic National Committee issues a steady stream of statements and videos with headlines such as “Romney makes move to embrace Tea Party.” Several Republican candidates, including Romney, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and Perry, are proven vote-getters at the state level. Soon they will show whether they can handle the scrutiny and grind of a presidential campaign. Democrats say their records provide much to use against them. Perry, for instance, has called Social Security “a Ponzi scheme,” and said climate change is a “contrived phony mess.” Romney switched his position on abortion, gay rights and gun control after leaving the Massachusetts governor’s office and seeking the Republican presidential nod. He also is criticized for his role in Bain Capital, a corporate takeover firm that eliminated jobs in some cases but expanded them in others. Bachmann has spent only three terms in the House; the last member to go directly to the White House was James Garfield, elected in 1880. If Sarah Palin decides to run, she will be asked why she quit her job as Alaska’s governor with more than a year left in her term.

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Post Cuts Office Space

September 1, 2011

From WSJ.com… The Washington Post said it won’t renew the leases on several of its offices in Virginia and Maryland, in a push to save on rent. Continue reading here: Post Cuts Office Space Find our Weekly Commercial Real Estate, Private Equity and Fund Newsletters at www.WeeklyBrief.net

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Fierce Fight Over Hawaiian Hotel Escalates

September 1, 2011

From WSJ.com… A court ordered Marriott back onto the premises of a hotel in Hawaii seized by its owners, but the owners moved to reassert their control, escalating a fierce battle over the trendy, unsuccessful property. Excerpt from: Fierce Fight Over Hawaiian Hotel Escalates Find our Weekly Commercial Real Estate, Private Equity and Fund Newsletters at www.WeeklyBrief.net

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Kerzner Weighs Atlantis Dubai Sale

August 30, 2011

From WSJ.com… The owner of several luxury resorts is exploring selling its 50% stake in the property to raise money to restructure $2.6 billion in mortgage debt. Taken from: Kerzner Weighs Atlantis Dubai Sale Find our Weekly Commercial Real Estate, Private Equity and Fund Newsletters at www.WeeklyBrief.net

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Halliburton CEO Drinks Fracking Fluid

August 22, 2011

DENVER — An energy company executive’s sip of fracking fluid at an industry conference this month has been called a demonstration by some and a stunt by others, but it’s bringing attention to new recipes for hydraulic fracturing fluids that in the past have contained chemicals commonly used for antifreeze or bleaching hair. During a keynote lunch speech at the conference presented by the Colorado Oil and Gas Association, Halliburton Co. CEO Dave Lesar talked about addressing public concerns about hydraulic fracturing, which extracts natural gas by blasting a mix of water, chemicals and sand underground. He raised a container of Halliburton’s new fracking fluid made from materials sourced from the food industry, then called up a fellow executive to demonstrate how safe it was by drinking it, according to two attendees. The executive mocked reluctance, then took a swig. What he drank was apparently CleanStim, which when Halliburton announced it in November was undergoing field trials. A Halliburton spokeswoman didn’t respond to a question asking how that executive is doing now, or who he is. Instead, she referred a reporter to a web page on CleanStim. The Houston company, which has operations in about 80 countries, has said the product shouldn’t be considered edible. “I thought if this stuff was so benign, why wouldn’t the CEO drink it himself? That frankly was my first thought,” said Environmental Defense Fund’s Mark Brownstein, who saw the demonstration. “My second thought, more seriously, is on the one hand, I’m pleased to see Halliburton is taking steps to remove toxic chemicals from hydraulic fracturing fluid. I wonder why if they have this technology why it wouldn’t become standard practice. “I also do in some ways think the stunt is very much indicative of the problem the industry has in assuring the public that they are in fact taking public concerns seriously,” Brownstein said. “Because quite honestly, a homeowner in Pennsylvania doesn’t have the option of having an underling drink his water. He has to do it himself.” Roughly 90 percent of wells in the U.S. are fracked, according to the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission. Each component of fracking fluid does something different, such as killing bacteria or preventing corrosion. As fracturing evolves, engineers have found other substances besides synthetic chemicals to perform those functions, said Colorado State University environmental engineering professor Ken Carlson, who also attended the conference. “The thing I took away is the industry is stepping up to plate and taking these concerns seriously,” Carlson said. “Halliburton is showing they can get the same economic benefits or close to that by putting a little effort into reformulating the fluids.” Companies have resisted disclosing exact recipes for fracking fluid for competitive reasons, and those who voluntarily post disclosures on a public online registry called FracFocus can exclude some chemicals. Halliburton’s website lists CleanStim’s ingredients as enzyme, exthoxylated sugar-based fatty acid ester, inorganic and organic acids, inorganic salt, maltodextrin, organic ester, partially hydrogenated vegetable oil, polysaccharide polymer and sulfonated alcohol. Brownstein said using ingredients from the food industry won’t necessarily make a fracking fluid safe for drinking water. “Salt is a food-grade ingredient, but if you have too much salt in your well water, your well water is not usable,” Brownstein said. Still Carlson said it was a good sign that Halliburton and others have introduced fracking fluids that they say are safer for the environment for reasons such as using biodegradable ingredients or allowing for less water use. ___ Online: ___

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Marc Fasteau: Industrial Policy Reconsidered

August 22, 2011

The world’s manufacturing superpowers — Germany, Japan and China — as well as every other advanced country except the U.K. have carefully thought out industrial policies. Why don’t we? In the US, the idea of industrial policy has been pushed on to the intellectual and political blacklist by free market fundamentalism. It is caricatured as government bureaucrats interfering with the workings of the market by ineptly trying to pick winning companies. The underlying assumption, an article of faith for true believers, is that an international free market exists and that, if only we would stop meddling, it will always produce the best possible results for our economy and our people. Anyone who disagrees is shouted down as an economic ignoramus or a socialist (think Soviet style central planning). Ignored facts: Historically, all of our significant competitors, and the US itself, successfully employed industrial policy as a critical component of their strategies to become major economic powers. During the Cold War, the US had an extensive de facto industrial policy. Organized around national defense, it successfully supported the development and, indirectly, the commercialization of ground breaking technologies Culture-specific industrial policies continue to be a central element in the success of countries with high or growing wages, and favorable trade balances in high tech manufactured goods. There is a substantial body of research outlining the historical and current use of industrial policies, evaluating their efficacy, and rebutting theoretical objections to them. Although some countries’ industrial policies do include direct support for individual “national champion” companies, many do not and all successful such policies cover a much broader range of non-company specific supports for research and high tech manufacturing. Thoughtful and well-constructed proposals for a US industrial policy (we should call it a “competitiveness” policy in the hope of sidestepping some of the prejudice against it) have also been put forward. One of the best and most innovative is for a Technology Based Planning System administered by a private non-profit United States Technology Strategy Board for use on a voluntary basis by US corporations, educational and research institutions, banks and venture funds, and to provide policy guidance to relevant governmental entities. This approach was first developed as Project Socrates, a joint CIA-DIA effort led by physicist Michael Sekora aimed at developing technology, industrial, and trade policies to win the Cold War. Its key proposition is that competitive advantage, at the company or national level, comes from control of technologies that are critical to satisfying present and future consumer needs. From this perspective, strategic planning should start with a map of all important technologies showing how they relate to each other and to present and anticipated consumer needs. The entities where these technological capabilities reside: business, academic and government, are part of this techspace map. The techspace map is smaller for a particular company, larger for an industry and all-inclusive for the United States. In all cases it must include non-US companies, academic institutions and government entities. Strategy is then developed to assure the availability, development and symbiotic interaction of critical technologies and to deny them to competitors. At the government level, this approach would inform trade policy — what markets are important to protect and which not; educational policy — what technologies should students be taught; the choice of what basic research to fund; and what interdisciplinary business consortia to authorize and encourage. Building on the work of Project Socrates, Sekora’s firm has expanded and automated the further development and updating of the techspace map using only publicly available information. They have also developed tools to navigate it, i.e., to identify the connections between technologies required to satisfy business and consumer needs, see where control of these technologies reside, identify alternative paths to meet these needs, and develop strategies to outmaneuver the competition. This system is ready to be put to use on a national scale. To do so, a private non-profit entity, the US Technology Strategy Board, would be established to obtain, maintain and administer it. Although the Board’s trustees would include representatives from relevant federal departments, they would not control it. The majority of trustees would be representatives from key participants in the US economy: each major industry; research institutes and universities; banks and venture funds; state education departments; and labor representatives. The Board would license the Techspace Map and associated tools. It would convene meetings and otherwise educate potential participants from all relevant sectors about the system and how to use it. The system would give each business participant a broad and highly accurate view of the resources and vulnerabilities of its competition, potential strategies to outmaneuver it and where the resources required for these strategies reside. It would allow university researchers, educators, banks and venture firms, trade negotiators and other government participants to see and evaluate these strategies and what roles they could play in them. This visibility and accuracy would provide guidance to, and promote the development of. voluntary and productive symbiotic relationships between all categories of participants. The Board would also use the system to develop a grand technology based competitiveness strategy for the United States. Participation in the strategy by corporations and all other non-federal institutions would be voluntary and be based on perceived self-interest. Modest fees charged for access to the system would allow it to rapidly become self-supporting. The fact that our major competitors — including countries that continue to capture our high value manufacturing industries — are using and further refining planning systems similar to Project Socrates is sufficient reason to seriously examine and consider it for the US.

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Google Buys Motorola: The Patent Wars Ramp Up

August 15, 2011

Google’s purchase of smartphone maker Motorola Mobility for $12.5 billion on Monday marks the latest salvo in the software industry’s raging patent war — a pitched battle that threatens to have far-reaching consequences for American innovation. In buying the hardware company, Google made clear its desire to acquire the estimated 25,000 patents held by Motorola . Google CEO Larry Page characterized the defensive move as one that would “strengthe[n] Google’s patent portfolio, which will enable us to better protect Android from anti-competitive threats from Microsoft, Apple and other companies.” By gaining dominion over this trove of patents, Google will be better positioned to fend off lawsuits from competitors, including Apple and Microsoft . Both companies have launched several high-profile lawsuits over alleged copyright infringements by Google. Google, for its part, contends that these lawsuits are an attempt to levy a tax for the use of patented technology and, in turn, raise the prices of Android phones , which would make the product less competitive in the marketplace. According to some industry experts, patented technology is, in many cases, far from original — but simply by having access to a cache of patents, companies are in a better position to defend themselves against future lawsuits. Dan Ravicher, the executive director of the Public Patent Foundation , explained that in the tech sector, “There’s this notion that even if the Joneses are doing something crazy across the street, the popular perception is, ‘We should be doing it, too.’” And the patents themselves may be of questionable value. “There’s a patent bubble — a lot of speculation and bidding up,” Ravicher said. He brought up the $4.5 billion a consortium of companies including RIM, Microsoft and Apple paid last month to acquire 6,000 patent rights from software company Nortel “This reminds me of the housing bubble, the dot-com bubble,” he said. “Five years from now, people will realize that they have overbid.” Nonetheless, the market for patents has led to what some experts have dubbed an ” arms race ,” with rival companies stockpiling patents as insurance against litigation. “[The Motorola acquisition] is really about protecting the Android marketplace from these crazy patent lawsuits,” said James Bessen , an expert on innovation and patents and a lecturer at the Boston University School of Law. “It’s not like Google needed Motorola.” Patent litigation “tripled” after American patent law was changed in the mid-1990s to allow for a greater number of patents, Bessen said. Though he and Ravicher both pointed out that the biotech and pharmaceutical sectors have benefited from the increase in patents, the software industry has in large part been hurt by the change in regulations. This year, the industry is on track to have nearly 3,000 lawsuits. “In the tech sector, since the late ’90s, losses from litigation have been exceeding the benefits,” Bessen said, citing his 2008 study . And with Google’s latest move, the increase in patents shows little sign of slowing down. “There will only be more acquisitions based on patents,” Bessen said. “Back in the mid ’90s, you had Adobe and Oracle saying, ‘We don’t need patents.’ Then they got hit with lawsuits — and now they’re suing other people. It’s just this escalating arms race.” The endgame for the tech sector may be cross licensing deals, which Bessen described as “five year agreements by companies not to sue each other over patents in a particular field.” With more patents in its arsenal, Bessen explained that Google may be able to secure a better cross licensing deal with Apple or Microsoft. Yet if the patent battle continues unabated, there is always the threat that software companies will take their technology overseas — simply to avoid a thorny and litigious landscape in the United States. “With arms races, we can only have peace through a lot of fear,” Ravicher said.

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For Defense Industry, Golden Age Is Over

August 15, 2011

NEW YORK (AP) — The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are winding down, Osama bin Laden is dead, and the federal government is deeply in debt. This spells the end of what was a golden decade for the defense industry. In the decade since the Sept. 11 attacks, the annual defense budget has more than doubled to $700 billion and annual defense industry profits have nearly quadrupled, approaching $25 billion last year. Now defense spending is poised to retreat, and so are industry profits. “We’re about to go into the downhill side of the roller coaster here,” said David Berteau, a defense industry analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Congress agreed last month to cut military spending by $350 billion over the next 10 years. The defense budget will automatically be cut by another $500 billion over that period if lawmakers fail to reach a deficit-cutting deal by November. Defense industry stocks have already begun to suffer; they are lagging the S&P 500 in recent months. During the last defense spending downturn, which lasted from 1985 to 1997, defense stocks underperformed the broader market by 33 percent, according to an analysis by RBC Capital Markets. The Sept. 11 attacks forced the world’s biggest and best-funded military to quickly retool itself. It needed to develop technologies, weapons and strategies to find and fight an elusive network of terrorists that seemed more sophisticated and dangerous than ever imagined. The U.S. spent $1.3 trillion in the ten years following the attacks chasing al-Qaida and fighting two wars. That was on top of baseline military spending in excess of $4 trillion. “After 9/11 the floodgates opened,” says Eric Hugel, a defense industry analyst at Stephens Inc. The defense budget grew from $316 billion in 2001 to $708 billion in 2011. Federal spending on homeland security, which includes everything from airport security to border control, also rose dramatically. Last year dozens of federal agencies, including the Department of Homeland Security, spent $70 billion on such programs, according to the Office of Management and Budget. That’s up from $37 billion in 2003, the first year after DHS was formed. All that spending was reflected in the soaring performance of the defense industry, led by the top five defense contractors: Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics and Raytheon. In 2001, revenues for U.S.-based defense contractors totaled $217 billion, according to data compiled by the analytics firm Capital IQ. By 2010 revenues had grown to $386 billion. Profits grew more than twice as fast over the same time period, from $6.7 billion to $24.8 billion. Contractors based abroad, such as BAE Systems, also flourished. BAE was the sixth biggest defense contractor in 2010, with $7.2 billion in U.S. military contracts. Stock prices of defense companies in the S&P 500 index have risen 67 percent since September 11. The index as a whole climbed 8 percent in that period. Military spending typically rises during wartime and falls during peacetime. But after Sept. 11, and as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan evolved, it became clear the country needed to spend money on very different military technologies and strategies. Fighter jets, missile defenses and other Cold War-era systems designed to deal with the perceived threats of nation-states were less useful. The U.S. military had to increase its ability to find, recognize and track enemies that were scattered in many countries and dispersed among the civilian population. During the war in Iraq the military realized that it couldn’t protect troops from a low-tech, but potent threat: jerry-rigged road side bombs. In Afghanistan, commanders needed ways to find and root out insurgents that had tucked themselves in caves in hard-to-reach mountains. These challenges led to new hardware. Among the most important: _ Transport trucks that protect troops and supplies from roadside bombs. Mine-resistant, ambush-protected vehicles, or MRAPs, quickly became crucial equipment for the Army. Oshkosh Corp., a maker of these trucks, was the 9th biggest military contractor last year. Before 9/11, it wasn’t in the top 20. _ Identification tools. Soldiers now carry small portable devices that identify a person by scanning fingerprints, irises and faces. These devices, made by L-1 Identity Solutions, which was recently acquired by Safran, can weigh as little as 3 pounds, transmit data by several different wireless methods and remember 1 million identities. _ Unmanned aircraft. General Atomics’ Predators, drones that can fire missiles, have killed several al-Qaida commanders. Lockheed Martin’s RQ-170 Sentinel reportedly kept watch on Osama bin Laden’s compound as the raid that killed him was taking place. Another type of company surged in importance in the last decade: Companies that provide services and support to military operations. As of March, the Defense Department had more contractor personnel in Afghanistan in Iraq than uniformed personnel, according to a study by the Congressional Research Service. Afghanistan has the highest ratio of contractors to military personnel than any other U.S. war. This has boosted companies like KBR, once a division of Halliburton. KBR, which builds and maintains military bases and other facilities, had $4.7 billion in military contracts in 2010, up from $860 million a decade earlier. Analysts say the heavy reliance on contractors should allow the military to wind down spending more quickly, because it is easier to terminate a contract than to reduce uniformed troop levels. Also, the government isn’t responsible for pensions, health care and other benefits for contract workers, which should save money. Equipment spending is already being scaled back. In 2009, funding for the F-22 fighter jet, a $65 billion program, was discontinued. Spending on the F-35 fighter jet is in danger of being cut back. An advanced warship called the DDG1000 has been canceled, and an upgrade to the Bradley tank called the Ground Combat Vehicle may also be scaled back or canceled. Over the past six months, defense company stocks in the S&P 500 index have fallen 16 percent. That compares with an 11 percent decline for the entire index. During wartime, when dollars are flowing, the new equipment developed to battle new enemies is used together with the equipment that had been developed for earlier wars. But as budgets shrink this time, some of the technologies that were developed during the past decade, such as the unmanned aircraft, will have to replace older systems entirely. “The era of manned airplanes should be seen as over,” says Michael O’Hanlon, a defense policy expert at the Brookings Institution. “The problem is nobody wants to give up the previously agreed on platform.” ———- Below, a scene from the Seinfeld episode, “The Hamptons.”

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Denise Bode: After a Scorching Week, Wind Power Lessons From the Texas Heat Wave

August 11, 2011

It’s over, for the moment — Electricity Reliability Council of Texas( ERCOT), the company that manages the Texas utility system, said Monday that it doesn’t expect peak electricity demand this week to surpass last week’s record levels. As he did after a sudden freeze stressed the Texas system in February, ERCOT CEO Trip Doggett credited wind power with a critical contribution during last week’s power emergency. Doggett said electricity from wind farms recently installed along Texas’ Gulf Coast began flowing at just the right time to help meet peak demand in the late afternoons. With that in mind, some lessons from the week’s real-world experience with substantial amounts of installed wind generating capacity on a large utility system: Adding wind power makes a utility system more reliable, not less. Balancing electricity supply and demand is a complex task, and utility system operators are used to turning various types of power plants on or off to match demand as it rises and falls throughout the day. Even though wind energy is variable, it varies slowly — unlike conventional power plants, which can fail instantaneously — and can be a critical component in times of need. For three straight days in the real world last week, wind made the difference between keeping the lights on and the air conditioners running — and rolling blackouts. No power plant runs 100 percent of the time. Throughout last week’s heat wave, as in February’s freeze, the Texas utility system was bedeviled by outages of conventional power plants due to extreme weather. According to an Aug. 2 blog article by Elizabeth Souder of the Dallas Morning News, “The high temperatures also caused about 20 power plants to stop working, including at least one coal-fired plant and natural gas plants.” Souder noted that a spokesman for ERCOT, “said such outages aren’t unusual in the hot summer…” This is fascinating, since the rap on wind is that it’s not dependable because “sometimes the wind stops blowing.” In the real world, sometimes it also gets too hot or too cold for the supposedly dependable fueled peaking power plants to operate properly. Geographic dispersal of wind farms makes their electricity production more dependable. This is something that seems intuitively obvious — the wind is usually blowing someplace — and has been predicted by a host of studies. Last week, it became crystal clear, as the Gulf Coast wind farms, which provide some 13 percent of Texas’s overall wind generation, accounted for as much as 70 percent of the wind-generated electricity being provided during peak hours. The reason for this is that winds are often low in west Texas, where most of the state’s wind farms are located, on very hot days, while ocean breezes blow more strongly. Generation from offshore and coastal land-based wind matches up well with summer demand peaks. Again, this is a phenomenon that has been predicted by studies. During a heat wave in the Northeast in July, Cape Wind, the company that hopes to install a large offshore wind farm off Cape Cod in Massachusetts, said its meteorological data showed the project would have been producing at full capacity during peak demand hours. The Texas experience bears that out, with ERCOT CEO Doggett telling the Austin American-Statesman , “We’d love to have more development of coastal wind. And we’re hoping their ability to generate during the peak hours may encourage more development in that area.”

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U.S. Adds 117,000 Jobs In July As Jobless Rate Falls, Beating Expectations

August 5, 2011

NEW YORK — A day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average had its worst drop since the financial crisis, fresh data showed a slightly less pessimistic view of the American economy. In July, 117,000 jobs were added in the economy, and the unemployment rate dropped from to 9.1 percent from 9.2 percent. But the drop in the unemployment rate should not be celebrated as a signal of strong growth: It came almost entirely from Americans dropping out of the labor force. As more Americans simply give up looking for work, the employment-to-population ratio fell to 63.9 percent in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest snapshot of the U.S. labor market, a new low. “We’re continuing to see very weak growth,” said Dean Baker, economist and co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. “117,000 new jobs is a really pathetic growth rate. It might be fine if we were at 4.5 percent unemployment, but in the context of 9.1 percent, it’s going to take us more than 20 years to get us back to where we used to be.” While July’s report inched up job gains from the past two months in revised numbers, May and June job growth still failed to keep up with population gains. Two closely watched indicators of employers’ future hiring plans were unchanged from June: The average workweek for Americans remained 34.3 hours, and temporary hiring stayed flat. Job gains came in health care, retail trade, manufacturing and mining, while government employment continued to decline. Despite the positive headline number, economists note that since the beginning of the year — really, since the official end of the recession — new hiring has barely kept up with population growth. And for the last three months, companies have been strategically cutting their workforce in increasing numbers; in July, the number of mass layoffs surged to a

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Kelly Dern: Women Entrepreneurs Continue to Hit the "Glass Ceiling" in the Technology Industry

August 5, 2011

Yesterday evening, I was among hundreds of technology start-ups, entrepreneurs and VCs who attended TechCrunch #CrunchUp , an ad hoc gathering of Europe’s entrepreneurs. However, when I looked out at the sea of over 300 of Europe’s technology gurus, I noticed that I looked very different from the majority of the people there: I was one of a handful of women. The lack of women attending this event illustrates how few women work in the technology sector and how even fewer are involved with start-ups in general. I have a master’s degree from the media and communications department at the London School of Economics and Political Sciences, a department overwhelmingly filled by women students. However, judging by the number of women representing technology start-ups in Europe, very few are entering these positions, even though most technology start-ups today aim to take advantage of, or build new platforms for social media – suggesting that, if anything, these skills should be in greater demand. If women have the skills and education to enter into a tech start-up, then where are they? The under-representation of women in these industries suggests that despite the distance women have come in achieving equality in the workplace and in universities, that they still aren’t reaching the same level within burgeoning industries. This trend suggests that the “glass ceiling” still exists for women in the technology industry. The question is: why? When working with a tech start-up, there is a certain amount of risk and uncertainty that goes along with being a part of something that is completely new. At the same time, there is opportunity, creativity and excitement that you experience being part of something groundbreaking. Do young women not want to take on the risk? If they are just as creative, hardworking and capable as men, then why are they shying away from these opportunities? I am a member of the ‘digital natives’ generation; I grew up with the Internet and have only known an existence belonging to a networked society. Learning to use new technologies was part of growing up – for both men and women in my generation. However, even within a society that gives both sexes the opportunity to develop their skills, gender socialisation still continues – pushing women away from pursuing maths, sciences and technology studies. There needs to be a change in the messages sent to young women – one that reinforces strong female entrepreneur role models. Instead of idolising pop stars, our heroes should be Steve Jobs, Jack Dorsey and Caterina Fake According to a recent study by blur Group that asked 1,000 entrepreneurs who they found most inspiring, female entrepreneurs received only 3% of the vote. Some women may be shying away from the ‘geek’ image associated with tech start-ups. There needs to be positive messages that enforce the importance of entering into the these industries, or even forging one of your own. While there are only a handful of women at the top of the tech pyramid, we must not let this imbalance affect who will become our future business leaders. Female entrepreneurs must be more visible, play an active role in mentoring young women, and recruiting them to join the wonderful start-up universe.

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Hiring By The Auto Industry Might Drive U.S. Recovery: Survey

August 1, 2011

(Clare Baldwin) – The auto industry could lead an economic recovery in the United States, according to a recent survey by audit, tax and advisory firm KPMG. Auto executives plan to do more hiring and more capital spending than executives in any other sector in the next year, according to the survey. Sixty-two percent of auto executives said they expect to hire people in the coming year, compared with an average of only 52 percent of executives across all sectors. Similarly, 71 percent of autos executives said they expect to increase their capital spending in the coming year compared with an average of 59 percent of all executives. Two years after the end of the U.S. recession, unemployment remains above 9 percent, U.S. consumer confidence hit a near two and a half-year low earlier this month and the U.S. government reached a last-minute deal late Sunday to avoid a U.S. debt crisis. All this has raised questions about the speed and strength of a U.S. recovery. The U.S. auto industry was hit hard during the financial crisis, which saw both General Motors Co (GM.N) and Chrysler seek bankruptcy protection and government bailouts. It was hit again in March when an earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis in Japan disrupted the supply chain. While the sector is improving — U.S. July auto sales are expected to hit an annual rate of around 12 million vehicles, an improvement over May and June — that figure still lags the 17 million-plus number sold in 2000. A full recovery could take years, but the next 12 months could see an improvement, according to the survey. Seventy-two percent of the autos executives surveyed said they expect their revenue to increase in the coming year. North America is still seen as the most important market, but more revenue is expected to come from other markets including China and South America. New models and products, acquisitions and joint ventures are also expected to add to revenue. Fifty-five percent of those surveyed expect to make an acquisition in the coming year; 5 percent expect to sell. Access to new markets, technologies and products is expected to drive the M&A activity. The auto sector survey, which included the responses of 100 autos executives, was conducted in June. KPMG is releasing the results of its other sector surveys separately. (Reporting by Clare Baldwin; Editing by Matt Driskill) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Auto Union Wants Bigger Cut Of Detroit Success

July 25, 2011

AUBURN HILLS, Mich. (AP) — To help American carmakers stay in business, autoworkers grudgingly gave up pay raises and some benefits four years ago. Now that General Motors, Ford and Chrysler are making money again, workers want compensation for their sacrifice. Just how much they get is the central question hanging over contract talks that start this week between Detroit and one of the nation’s largest and most powerful unions. The negotiations, the first since Chrysler and GM took government aid and emerged from bankruptcy, will set wages and benefits for 111,000 members of the United Auto Workers, including those at Ford, which avoided bankruptcy by taking out massive private loans. The UAW’s four-year contracts with the Detroit Three expire on Sept. 14. There’s more at stake than pay. After the industry’s brush with financial ruin in 2008 and 2009, both sides know how quickly Detroit’s sales and profitability could vanish. Sales are on pace to reach nearly 13 million cars and trucks this year, better than the 10 million in 2009, but still below the 17 million peak in 2005. Americans are worried about buying cars when wages and the job market are weak. The workers and Detroit companies can’t leave themselves vulnerable to rivals. “Management’s not the enemy at this point,” says Jim Graham, a longtime local union president in Lordstown, Ohio, where workers make the Chevrolet Cruze car. “The enemy is the competition.” Even so, the talks won’t be easy. Chrysler, which is run by Italian automaker Fiat, wants to hold the line on wages and benefits, while GM and Ford want to cut labor costs even more. There’s friction inside the union, too. Many workers are eager to get a share of company profits and restore pay raises and some benefits given up during the financial crisis. “You want to get something back,” says Hans Smith, a worker at GM’s pickup plant in Flint, Mich., who knows they won’t get back all the concessions. That could create problems for the UAW’s new leader, Bob King, who preaches cooperation over confrontation. King wants to “make sure our members get their fair share of the upside” but also keep the companies competitive. Wall Street is watching, too. Stock prices at Ford and GM and a potential Chrysler public offering could be hurt if companies end up with higher costs. The talks started Monday at Chrysler’s Auburn Hills, Mich., headquarters with a series of friendly handshakes. Both sides wore matching maroon jackets to signal unity. Here are the key issues in the talks: — Reward for Risk: Workers want a bigger cut of the profits now that Detroit’s automakers are making money again. They got profit-sharing checks in January, but they’ll want bigger ones this year to offset the risk that they could nothing if the economy slows more and auto sales tank. They also resent the size of executive pay packages, particularly at Ford, where workers fume that Ford CEO Alan Mulally got $26.5 million for 2010. Some assembly-line workers are already mad about giving up guaranteed raises. They could resist profit-sharing. “Most workers say `No, that’s not good enough,’” says Gary Walkowicz, a Ford worker who ran unsuccessfully against King last year. “It’s like pie in the sky as opposed to real increases in wages to help us keep up with increasing prices.” The UAW’s ultimate weapon, a strike, is banned at GM and Chrysler under terms of the government bailout. The union could still strike at Ford. — Matching Rivals’ Costs: Even with big reductions in labor costs since 2007, GM and Ford still pay more in wages and benefits than Toyota, Honda and Hyundai, which don’t have unionized workers. Ford’s cost is the highest in Detroit at around $58 per hour, while Toyota’s is $55, according to the Center for Automotive Research. GM and Ford will try to cut costs further in talks this summer, while Chrysler, which has the lowest costs in Detroit, doesn’t want an increase. Still, factory wages and benefits cost the Detroit Three around $20 less an hour per worker than they did four years ago. In the last contract talks, companies got the union to form trust funds to manage the cost of their retirees’ health care. That took a huge cost off Detroit’s books once the companies gave money to the trusts. The union also agreed to lower wages for newly-hired workers, about half the $29 per hour that longtime union workers make. King says Detroit’s costs will fall as more new workers are hired. He says that the union won’t make any more financial concessions, but will look at other ways to cut costs, including health care changes, as long as members aren’t hurt. Al Iacobelli, Chrysler’s chief negotiator, says the company won’t go back to the old formula of pay raises. — Keeping U.S. Jobs: The UAW is eager to boost its ranks with more new hires. Its membership has fallen to 376,612, about a quarter of the 1.5 million it had at its peak in 1979. The companies, though, are reluctant to hire with auto sales and the economy still sputtering. King concedes that reopening plants would have to be justified by increased sales. In past years the spirit of cooperation at the start of talks quickly has turned to nastiness as both sides staked out their positions. But UAW Vice President General Holiefield says this year will be different. “We’ve come through hell and look where we’re at today,” he says. “I don’t see anything as an obstacle.”

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Edward J. Black: Lack of Wireless Competition Threatens Tech, Start-Ups

July 25, 2011

The success of tech companies and startups increasingly depends on the industry that allows them to reach customers — wireline and wireless Internet access providers. But AT&T’s aggressive proposal to takeover T-Mobile could have not a ripple, but a tsunami impact on businesses in the Internet ecosystem — and ultimately the economy. Unless antitrust authorities in Washington step up to block this anti-competitive merger, the nation would go backwards to 1993 — when we had two big wireless carriers. History is clear: before the Department of Justice split up Ma Bell in 1984 for blocking competitors, AT&T delayed any innovation disrupting its business model — including fax machines, cellular technology and the Internet itself. It’s ironic that AT&T is proposing to reassert dominance over the very business it once delayed — wireless phone and broadband service. Businesses from mobile applications to handsets would need to seek permission to innovate from either AT&T or Verizon in sort of game of “mother (or Ma) may I?” The proposed AT&T merger is a threat to the business model and shareholder value of every mobile Internet startup and emerging player expecting open access to the wireless Internet. Past innovations like the Android phone may not have been introduced if the wireless market was a duopoly. Industry leaders need to speak up. Apps makers already spend considerable time and expense in technical qualifications before they can be seriously considered to run on a carrier’s network. With less competition in the wireless Internet space, they will find themselves in shotgun weddings with either AT&T or Verizon, holding representation deals for the apps to be available exclusively to one carrier. Handset makers may need to offer AT&T and Verizon the best, newest innovations exclusively. Without similar offerings, Sprint, smaller carriers and newer wireless network entrants will fall further behind. Before LinkedIn’s public offering in May, its Securities and Exchange Commission filing listed reasons the business could falter. It noted that as more people access the Internet online, “our business could be adversely affected” if LinkedIn were blocked from a device, or users didn’t like the company’s mobile app. Another key risk for tech companies tied to this auction is it would delay overall solutions to the “spectrum crunch.” The coming spectrum crunch would make it harder for customers to access mobile apps and content they want. AT&T or Verizon can use spectrum as a reason to block apps that they claim use too much spectrum. AT&T initially intended to block YouTube from the iPhone, but Steve Jobs’ power of persuasion broke the impasse. The proposed takeover would give AT&T significantly more spectrum than any other carrier. Thus, the least efficient network would control the greatest concentration of wireless spectrum resources. The company has warehoused much of its spectrum — instead of innovatively building out more capacity for more customers. The future ability of tech companies here to reach customers across the Internet will be significantly impacted by the FCC and the Justice Department’s decision in Washington to approve or deny the merger. We need our industry’s leaders to not let ignorance, apathy, timidity or parochial miscalculation lull them into silence during this critical economic crossroads for our industry — and the nation’s economy.

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Country Moving Toward ‘Rentership Society’: Is The American Dream In Trouble?

July 21, 2011

Home ownership, long a central pillar of the American dream, seems increasingly unattainable for growing numbers of households. Yet old views died hard, and nine out of 10 Americans still consider home ownership “ an important part of the American dream ,” according to a June poll by The New York Times /CBS News. Indeed, there are signs of slight improvement in the housing market. In June, work started on 629,000 new houses, a five-month high that beat economists’ expectations saw an uptick in construction in every region in the country. But that doesn’t necessarily indicate the housing market is in recovery — because, as real estate analyst Mike Larson recently told The Washington Post , “[p]eople who don’t have jobs don’t buy houses.” And many, many people don’t have jobs. Unemployment rose to 9.2 percent in June, a figure that would actually be higher than 11 percent if there were still as many people actively looking for work as there were at the start of the recession, according to the Wall Street Journal . Among those who have jobs, wages are falling and many people can only find part-time work rather than full-time. The grim employment situation is reflected in home ownership statistics. On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley released a report showing that if delinquent borrowers are excluded, the U.S. home ownership rate is only 59.7 percent, which would be an all-time low. Leaving in the country’s roughly 7.5 million delinquent borrowers, home ownership is at 66.4 percent. Morgan Stanley housing strategist Oliver Chang told Bloomberg that given runaway foreclosures and tight credit for borrowers, America is moving “away from being an ownership society” — President George W. Bush’s vision of a country with high home ownership — and “towards becoming a rentership society.” Those unexpectedly high June housing starts might actually bear out Chang’s prediction. As recently pointed out by the WSJ , construction of single-family homes grew by 9.4 percent in June — but construction of multi-family homes with at least two units increased three times as much, by 30.4 percent. In other words, there were a lot more apartments than houses. A report from the investment management company PIMCO recently offered a number of reasons why housing demand is likely to stay depressed. A 20 percent down payment on a mortgage is becoming standard, the PIMCO report notes. For someone making $48,000 a year, it would take 16 years to save enough for that size of downpayment on a median-priced home. Meanwhile, college graduates are entering the workforce with high debt and low wages — the average salary for recent grads was $27,000 in 2010, down from $30,000 in 2007, PIMCO notes. These factors in combination “could serve to limit college graduate home purchasing power for the foreseeable future.” And current homeowners are more likely to save for retirement than try to make ambitious changes to their living situation. For retiring Americans, the PIMCO report predicts “one home instead of two, rent rather than own, smaller place rather than large.” A Reuters survey of economists found widespread skepticism at the idea that June’s housing starts indicated a substantive market recovery. Indeed, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday that existing home sales were down 0.8 percent in June , to a relatively anemic rate of 4.77 million. That’s 9 percent less than the rates a year ago, The Washington Post points out.

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Democrats Turning On Big Pharma In Debt Debate

July 8, 2011

WASHINGTON — Democrats have targeted pharmaceutical profits as a means of raising revenue as part of the debt ceiling deal, Chris Van Hollen, the top Democrat on the Budget Committee, said Friday. Drugmaker profits were protected as part of a deal between Senate Democrats, the White House and Big Pharma to ease health care reform passage. That deal expressly expired upon passage of the health bill, however, leaving pharma vulnerable — or at least as vulnerable as a deep-pocketed interest group with powerful friends on Capitol Hill can be. The pharmaceutical industry, during the health care debate, was able to protect profits it makes from government rebates and by selling exorbitantly priced drugs to Medicare beneficiaries. Democrats would go after both pools of money. “The proposals that we’ve put on the table have to do with rebates for the pharmaceutical industry,” Van Hollen told HuffPost. “The idea of giving Medicare negotiating authority and going to the same rebate policy that was in place in 2005, yeah, those are things that we’ve actually proposed.” HuffPost asked if Republicans were open to the pharmaceutical proposal. “I don’t want to characterize what happened in the talks, but that has been part of the conversation,” he said. A GOP source confirmed that Democrats had put the proposal on the table and that Republicans were continuing to look at it. Changes to rebate policies in both Medicaid and Medicare could raise billions of dollars. A House bill in the last Congress — reintroduced by Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) in this session — would have required the industry to return some of its Medicare Part D money to the government. The rebate proposal would have saved $63 billion over ten years, according to an analysis done at the time by the Congressional Budget Office. Karl Uhlendorf, a vice president for the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA), said that PhRMA has been working the Hill to make its case, aware that some Democrats have been eyeing the industry’s revenue. “What we’ve been focusing on is the way in which Part D has been a success. It’s provided seniors and disabled Americans with unprecedented access to medicines at an affordable price,” Ulendorf said, noting that the program has come in at a price tag roughly 40 percent smaller than initially projected. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has long been supportive of raising additional revenue from prescription drug producers and opposed the White House deal. Hitting the pharmaceutical industry could help win over some of the House democrats that John Boehner and President Obama will need to gain favor for whatever bargain they come up with. House Republicans may be particularly receptive to the proposal after the drug lobby worked hand in glove with the White House to pass health care reform and followed that partnership by heavily backing Democrats in the 2010 elections — contributions that haven’t been forgotten. Van Hollen said that Democrats were not considering pushing for allowing for re-importing cheaper drugs from Canada or another foreign country, as the proposal — valid as it might be — “doesn’t necessarily generate income from a budget perspective.”

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Ernan Roman: Our Daily Emails: Guidelines for Improving Quality and Relevance

July 6, 2011

In previous blogs, I’ve provided recommendations for improving the quality and relevance of communications with customers and prospects. Today I would like to address improvements to the emails we send each other in the course of daily business. We have all endured countless emails which waste our time because they are not relevant. Emails that “CC” people as “CYA”, or recount inane workplace behavior, or circulate urban legends, etc. I ran across some valuable email guidelines. In his recent blog , David Pogue, the New York Times technology writer, wrote about Chris Anderson, who runs the influential TED conference. Chris put together his advice on the biggest dos and don’ts to consider before hitting “send.” This “Email Charter” makes perfect sense as a set of easy-to-follow ground rules for all of us who use email. Anderson’s ten points for respectful email behavior are a long-overdue online Magna Carta , setting out the fundamental rights, responsibilities, and boundaries of grownup communication via email. For your convenience, it appears below, at the end of this blog. Or, find it at: http://emailcharter.org/ . I have signed the Email Charter , and hope you will, too. In his blog, David Pogue shares a desire, as do I, to offer a slight amendment to Anderson’s ninth principle. Like Pogue, I believe that people should extend the courtesy of sending a brief confirming message (such as “Got it”) upon receipt of an email, to let the sender know their email has been received. In the spirit of contributing to the value of this important thread, I propose adding two more commandments: 11. Drop the exclamation points. Messages in which many sentences end in exclamation points, (or, even worse, in multiple exclamation points), do not call out the importance of each sentence. The reverse occurs: they emphasize that the author did not think their words could stand on their own without the crutches of the exclamation points. 12. Rampant Ongoing CC’s as CYA. Do not keep CC’ing folks just to have a paper trail that you “kept everyone in the loop” about some insight or action item. Having established that proof with the first message, which included the appropriate people, there is generally no need to keep CC’ing every single one of the original recipients on the subsequent (often mind-numbing and always mailbox-clogging) two- or three-party discussions that usually follow. Be kind and delete those who don’t have to be included in the on-going threads. Those are my additions to Anderson’s fine list of e-mail communication guidelines. What would you add? Please share your ideas below. Ernan Roman is President of the marketing consultancy, Ernan Roman Direct Marketing. Recognized as the industry pioneer who created three transformational methodologies: Integrated Direct Marketing, Opt-In Marketing, and Voice of Customer Relationship Research. Clients include Microsoft, NBC Universal, Disney, Hewlett-Packard and IBM. Ernan was named to “B to B’s Who’s Who” as one of the “100 most influential people” in Business Marketing by Crain’s B to B Magazine. His fourth and latest book on marketing best practices is titled: Voice of the Customer Marketing: A Proven 5-Step Process to Create Customers Who Care, Spend, and Stay . Ernan is also the co-author of “Opt-In Marketing: Increase Sales Exponentially with Consensual Marketing” and author of “Integrated Direct Marketing: The Cutting Edge Strategy for Synchronizing Advertising, Direct Mail, Telemarketing and Field Sales.” www.erdm.com ernan@erdm.com

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Mitchell J. Rabin: Is the Natural Gas Industry Fracking Itself?

July 5, 2011

The number of social, political and economic problems we’re facing today are nothing short of daunting. With the momentum of privatization of otherwise public works, and even subordinating elected officials to the whim of corporate profiteers as in Benton Harbor, MI, gives some indication of how powerful the corporatization of these United States of America is. On last week’s front cover, Time Magazine pictured the Constitution with its ends being frayed with the query “Does it Matter?” One is thrown to ask, what is becoming of the American Psyche? Has this robust nation been subterfuged by the torpedoes of reality TV and the myopia of texting? Are fast food, micro-waved cooking and the fast-paced, cell phone, SUV culture with nary a care in the world grinding to a half, coming home to roost empty-handed? Thoughtful individuals who really care about our country and its values are giving all of this a lot of thought. And so interestingly, is one of the most hyped and fast-paced, money-at-any-expense industries in our nation: the natural gas industry. It wasn’t long ago that natural gas was fairly simple and not costly to extract. It’s not a sustainable technology but wasn’t unreasonably considered a transition fuel while the more intelligent countries starting fueling, that is funding, renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar and geo-thermal. However, over the last number of years, the easier gas layers have been extracted, leaving only deeper layers, much harder to access, and can only be accomplished through the use of exceedingly toxic chemical injected into the shale, toxifying the water table, liberating otherwise dormant methane, said to be the most injurious of all gases to exacerbate climate change, and polluting the air. Reports from academic institutions such as Duke University and many others have proven that the process called “hydro-fracking” is highly injurious to the regions it is employed, so much so that the water can often become lit on fire. This was demonstrated in many a youtube video and in director Josh Fox’s film Gasland, nominated for an academy award for best documentary. The gas industry, through its lobbying organizations, has sought to downplay the toxicity of the process, yet perhaps millions of people at this point — or likely soon — across the 34 states currently suffering from this extreme process of chemical extraction, can no longer drink their own well water. Gas industry experts and executives won’t touch it, let alone drink it, all the while claiming that “it’s fine”. Then why don’t they drink it themselves and serve it up to the members of their families? And why doesn’t this question ever get directly answered? We probably know why. Constituents of many states are completely up in arms about fracking and a major movement in NY, PA and NJ has been mounted to counter what is considered the gas industry’s propaganda and monetary control over the respective legislatures of these states. New York State Senator Tony Avella has reviewed the data and came to the resolute conclusion that fracking could jeopardize the drinking water for NYC residents as well as NYS, and drafted legislation to not just extend a moratorium currently in place, or at least it was until last week, but to actually ban fracking, unless it could be proven to not be harmful and toxic. It doesn’t get fairer than that. Avella has been receiving increasing support for this legislation. What’s interesting however, is that facts and common sense get people close to nowhere when money is being spread among politician’s campaign coffers. It’s like heroin — apparently very hard to resist once addicted. So despite the science that clearly shows the dangers of the process, politicians, with a few exceptions such as Tony Avella, Brian Cavanaugh, Scott Springer, and a handful of others, bend to the whims of the gas industry. But what’s most interesting is that the industry itself is facing increasing criticism internally from those who are coming forward to say that the process of fracking is so expensive that the bottom line is nothing very interesting at all, is highly speculative and other industry experts are actually suggesting that promises made of big returns simply cannot be met, giving the industry the look of a big Ponzi scheme. A series of New York Times articles have been suggesting this and led to this notion that the gas industry is “fracking itself,” fracturing from within , no longer able to withstand the pressure heaped upon it by strong community groups getting stronger, some politicians who cannot be bought and the science that continues to show how potentially deleterious fracking can be to our water supply. Add to this the suggestion that it’s not mildly, but highly speculative and associated with Ponzi scheme-style business activity, it’s a wonder that Governor Andrew Cuomo just voted to lift the moratorium put into place by former Governor Paterson. So while much is yet to be discovered about the full effect of the fracking process relative to air and water contamination, what is known to date scientifically would suggest that the gas industry would want to really take a good look at developing a long-term investment strategy of renewable resources, quickly. As for Governor Cuomo, his constituency who put him into office was surely not expecting him to side with the gas industry — quite the contrary — and the industry’s own internal fracturing should give him plenty of good reason, a good ‘out’ so to speak, to endorse Senator Avella’s ban on the process “unless or until proven safe” immediately. Perhaps we need to help the governor make the right decision. More information on how can be found at the Participatory Democracy link at www.abetterworld.net .

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Eric K. Clemons: Why Is There Still Litigation in Third Party Payer Distribution Systems in Air Travel

June 29, 2011

Regulation in Travel Distribution A spate of lawsuits is emerging between the travel industry’s “Global Distribution Systems” (“GDS”) and their customers. The first two lawsuits were filed by US Airways and American Airlines ; other lawsuits, possibly including a federal antitrust suit brought by the Department of Justice, may follow. Indeed, on May 20, 2011, American Airlines issued a statement announcing that it is cooperating in an investigation with the United States Department of Justice (“DoJ”) regarding whether the GDSs have violated antitrust law, and American is currently suing Travelport, Orbitz, and Sabre for alleged antitrust violations. These actions are interesting for several reasons. First, the conflict upon which these disputes is based has profound implications for the cost and convenience of travel within the United States, especially travel by individual leisure passengers. Second, it had been an article of faith among the netarati that the kind of abuses alleged in these disputes simply could not arise, because the transparency and open access of the net had rendered this kind of dispute, and the alleged abuse of power that the disputes represent, obsolete. Third, because of the widely held belief that this type of abuse is no longer possible, there is a significant danger that the wrong decision may be reached in one or more of these cases. Finally, but perhaps most importantly, the analysis we present here has widespread implications in Internet regulation. It suggests that antitrust may not be the most appropriate way to approach disputes in online digital distribution businesses. An alternative measure, third party payer system power , may be more applicable in adjudicating these disputes, than “share of relevant market” or “essential facilities” arguments offered in antitrust litigation. We have argued elsewhere that the unique structure of online distribution systems may give them the power traditionally associated with monopoly, even in the presence of what appears to be a competitive marketplace. The issue of third party payer power in online distribution may be especially helpful in rethinking the regulation of online businesses since antitrust litigation has fallen out of power in the US. Likewise, the essential facilities doctrine increasingly is viewed as inappropriate or irrelevant to antitrust regulation. And yet there does appear to be a growing body of disputes and competitive harm that require some integrating theory for their resolution, and third party payer mechanisms may provide this integrating theory. The FTC has recently launched an investigation into Google’s business practices; whether you are an avid fan of Google and believe this is an assault on capitalism , or believe that the investigation is long overdue, the resolution of these third party payer disputes in air travel will have bearing on any future litigation involving Google. The present story addresses the history of distribution, power, and abuse of power in airline reservations, and an explanation for why the abuses that required regulation in 1984 were believed to be impossible in an internet age. Indeed, the likelihood of abuse seemed so remote that the industry was deregulated in 2004. A subsequent piece, to be published later this week, explains why the distribution of airline reservations has not evolved as expected, and why reregulation may be required. Analysis of the Changing Role of Power in Travel Distribution The essence of the disputes is very simple. US Air and American have products and services that they want to offer travel agents that the GDSs are currently not technically equipped to offer; the GDSs’ “full content” requirement prohibits airlines from offering any product to a travel agency unless that product is already available through the GDSs. This limits the options available to US travelers who book through agencies. Additionally, many airlines would like to offer their services through some form of direct connection to agencies, which would greatly reduce their airlines’ distribution costs without affecting the quality of service provided to customers by their agencies; a range of contractual restrictions and contractual incentives limits airlines’ ability to offer direct connection and agencies’ willingness to accept them. The US Airways complaint against Sabre, Inc. (“Sabre”) alleges, among other things, that Sabre has engaged in behavior to restrict US Airways’ ability to use lower-cost and more efficient means of connecting with travel agencies, including entering into exclusivity agreements with travel agents, charging artificially high prices to US Airways, and restricting US Airways ability to offer products without first offering them on Sabre. The American Airlines complaint alleges, among other things, similar allegations of exclusivity contracts and artificially high prices and alleges that Travelport and others retaliated against American Airlines for offering direct connect technology to travel agents by doubling American Airlines’ booking fees for international reservations to make them appear more expensive. In the former case, US Airways had entered into a contract with Sabre, and subsequently filed its action against Sabre. American Airlines, on the other hand, filed its actions following unsuccessful negotiations with Orbitz regarding its bookings, which allegedly resulted in Travelport and Sabre retaliating against American Airlines. American Airlines continues to work with Travelport and Sabre during the dispute; indeed, for reasons described below, it really must remain present in both systems whether or not it is able to negotiate terms it considers commercially reasonable. Indeed, excessive fees are one of the hallmarks of third-party payer systems. As we have described elsewhere, over the course of more than two decades of research, the prices charged by third party payer distribution systems are generally able to escape the discipline of the market, even in the absence of traditional monopoly power. Travel agents are paid to use GDSs, and they are happy to use them. Airlines pay to be included in distribution systems, not only to be found, but to not be not found. As long as agencies still account for a significant portion of travel bookings, and they do, and as long as agencies use GDSs, then most mainstream airlines really do not have a choice and really must pay the fees these GDSs charge. For example, American Airlines has alleged that it pays tens of millions in booking fees to GDSs, which are shared with the travel agents that use the GDS’ systems. This is alleged to result in travel agents frequently selecting the GDSs that charge the highest booking fees to airlines and thus are able to provide the highest payments to the agencies; this is, of course, the very opposite of price competition. In summary, the travel agents receive the service more free than free, subsidized out of the millions of dollars that airlines pay in booking fees. Why doesn’t the traveler object? Quite simply, travelers do not directly pay the fees that the airlines are charged, and indeed do not even see them; most travelers are not aware either of these disputes, or of the fees that are the basis of them. Why doesn’t American or US Airways boycott the GDSs? Traditional full service airlines like American and US Airways still rely heavily on corporate travelers, they therefore still rely heavily on agencies, and they cannot survive the loss of business that they would suffer from vanishing from one or more GDSs. But how can the GDSs still have the power and the relevance to force their will on an airline? How can they even be worthy of a legal complaint? How can any of this still be possible? Isn’t this a vestige of pre-internet technology and pre-internet business models, without relevance today? Don’t airlines have websites that customers can use to directly buy tickets? Don’t Orbitz and Travelocity represent alternatives? Don’t agencies represent alternatives? Well … not exactly. Orbitz, Travelocity, and traditional travel agencies use the GDSs, and indeed most use only one GDS. For example, Orbitz has entered into an exclusivity contract with Travelport, whereby Orbitz is required to use Travelport “exclusively” as its GDS provider for North American air travel bookings through 2014. An airline that vanishes from one GDS vanishes from all of the agencies that use that GDS. These GDSs represent what we have previously called parallel monopolies , and even in the absence of traditional monopoly market share, a GDS can cause any single airline to vanish from a share of the agencies, causing enormous harm. For most airlines, direct distribution has not succeeded because customers still use agencies (on or off line) and agencies still use GDSs. Let’s see why. But first, a brief historical background on previous disputes in this industry provides useful insight into how the current disputes may unfold. Background on Reservations Systems and Distribution Systems In the 1980s, long before the internet, customers used travel agencies to book tickets, and travel agencies used Computerized Reservations Systems (CRS) to search for flights, based on times and fares. Customers had no alternative to their agencies, and agencies had no alternative to a CRS. Moreover, the CRSs paid the agencies to keep them happy, the vast majority of flights were booked through CRSs, and CRSs had almost unlimited power to charge airlines for listing in the CRS database. Indeed, in the early 1980s American Airlines made more money selling Delta’s flights through Sabre than Delta did operating them, and United earned more selling other airlines’ flights through Apollo than it earned operating an airline. This is an early example of what we now call a third party payer business model : Travel agents (party 1) used the CRSs (party 2) to find airlines (party 3). The agencies were happy (they received free service and were actually paid for their use of CRSs) and they seldom switched CRS vendors. Airlines needed to be found, and so they (party 3) paid CRSs almost whatever they demanded, not so much “to be found” as “to not be not found.” It was not necessary that any CRS have monopoly power to make this business model work, as long as each CRS operated as near monopoly for the agencies it served; if a CRS droped an airline, then the agencies that use only that CRS will no longer see the airline’s flights and bookings through that CRS will almost vanish. The impact of this can be catastrophic for the airline. For example, in the 1980s, when Sabre dropped Braniff’s flights, and when Apollo dropped Frontier’s flights, each airline lost enough business to be forced into bankruptcy, even though each airline could still be booked by agencies served by the other CRSs. Ultimately, the court decided that the power of Sabre and Apollo was excessive and that it had been abused, and the travel distribution industry became heavily regulated. This is explained in several of our previous papers (see, for example, our paper prepared for the Searle Center Conference on the Economics and Law of Internet Search). The structure of the industry, as it existed in 1984 (that is, before CRS regulation), is shown below in figure 1. Figure 1–The structure of travel distribution, as it appeared in 1984, with most customers using agencies and most agencies relying on a single CRS. Of course, in an Internet age, this business model now appears totally anachronistic, toothless, and without power. Customers do not need to use agencies; they can go directly to the airlines own booking systems. In theory, customers will go directly to airlines to arrange bookings. Similarly, in theory, agencies do not need to use Global Distribution Systems (The GDSs that replaced CRSs); they, too, can go directly to the airlines’ own booking systems. The new structure of travel distribution was expected to look as shown in figure 2. Agencies can bypass GDSs, and customers can bypass agencies and GDSs; how could any residual power exist? So we all — consumer advocates, regulators, airline executives, and industry researchers alike — stopped worrying. Figure 2.–The structure of travel distribution, as it was expected to look today, with airlines appealing both to agencies and directly to customers, bypassing GDSs. The new yellow lines, not present in figure 1, represent customers bypassing GDSs and agencies by booking directly from airlines’ own websites. The new blue lines, also absent from figure 1, represent agencies bypassing GDSs and booking directly from airlines Many of the red lines, representing usage of traditional distribution systems, have been eliminated.

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Purified Bottled Water Is Not Tap Water, Industry Argues

June 23, 2011

The International Bottled Water Association on Wednesday took on what it described as a “a myth repeated by some anti-bottled water activists that bottled water which comes from municipal water sources is just tap water in a bottle.” At least one group opposed to bottled water, however, shrugged at the public-relations gambit, suggesting that no matter how much processing is involved, bottled water is, on its face, an unnecessary product. The trade group’s new video, posted on YouTube , features an unnamed teenager who has appeared in numerous similar videos for the organization. The young woman — who independently approached the organization as a fan of bottled water, according to IBWA spokesman Tom Lauria, and who has been paid a small stipend for her efforts — takes viewers on a guided tour of a plant belonging to Premium Waters, Inc. in Douglas, Ga. Lauria said that the video was made in response to various claims — including one famously made by the comedy duo Penn & Teller for their Showtime series “Bullshit” — that consumers are being duped into buying, at a substantial markup, water they can get for pennies form their own taps. “The real story here is how much work it takes to turn municipal tap water into a food product that can legally be labeled ‘purified water,’” Lauria said. “What you’re seeing is a huge effort at compliance with federal regulation.” Bottled water comes from a variety of sources, including springs, artesian wells, and yes, municipal water sources — that is to say, from the tap. But according to the video, it’s a long road from tap water to purified water — a road involving several stages of filtering, reverse osmosis, ultra-violet light purification and other processing and testing before the product is ready for market. “Some people insist that bottled water that comes from public water systems is just the same as tap water in a bottle. They make it seem like it just comes from a hose, but that’s not true,” explains the young video hostess, whose identity is not revealed, Lauria said, in deference to a request from her parents. “The process of producing bottled water using a public water system, is more complicated than people realize. The final product is quite different from regular tap water.” WATCH: Whether being different means that purified water is better than tap water is an open question, and one that has repeatedly been raised by environmental groups. They say that — even setting aside the environmental footprint of millions of unnecessary plastic bottles going to landfills, or into waterways, or along sides of roads — regulation of the bottled water industry remains woefully inadequate. The Food and Drug Administration regulates bottled water, while the Environmental Protection Agency monitors public drinking water. “I think this is just another example of them feeling the need to respond to some of the consumer backlash against the bottled water industry,” said Emily Wurth, director of the water program at the group Food & Water Watch . “They’re not really dispelling too many myths.” Wurth pointed by way of example to a 2009 report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office that found, among other things, that bottled water, which is governed as a food item by the FDA, is less strictly regulated, overall, than municipal drinking water overseen by the EPA. “FDA’s bottled water standard of quality regulations generally mirror the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) national primary drinking water regulations,” the GAO noted. But the “FDA’s regulation of bottled water, particularly when compared with EPA’s regulation of tap water, reveal key differences in the agencies’ statutory authorities. Of particular note, FDA does not have the specific statutory authority to require bottlers to use certified laboratories for water quality tests or to report test results, even if violations of the standards are found.” “Among GAO’s other findings, the state requirements to safeguard bottled water often exceed FDA’s, but still are often less comprehensive than state requirements to safeguard tap water,” the report said. “FDA and state bottled water labeling requirements are similar to labeling requirements for other foods, but the information provided to consumers is less than what EPA requires of public water systems under the Safe Drinking Water Act.” A report compiled by the Environmental Working Group in January was the latest to assess the transparency of bottled water makers on the sourcing, processing and purity testing of their products. In that analysis, the group found that 18 percent of brands do not reveal the geographic source of their water. Another 32 percent offer no information on purity tests, EWG found, while 13 percent “publish ‘water quality’ reports that lack any actual testing results.” The International Bottled Water Association responded to that report in detail , asserting among other things that the characterization of tap water being more tightly regulated than bottled water was false. The group noted that the GAO found that “no evidence that bottled water caused any illnesses during the previous five years.” “In contrast,” the group further noted, “EPA scientists and researchers have estimated that tap water consumption is the cause of over 16 million cases of acute gastrointestinal illness (vomiting/diarrhea) in the United States each year.” Still, Wurth said the solution is to make sure that doesn’t happen, rather than create a market for disposable bottles of water. “The way we see it, we should be putting our efforts into protecting our water sources,” Wurth added, “so people aren’t in a position where the feel they have to use bottled water.” Wurth also pointed to other long-standing issues with bottled water, including chemicals used in the manufacture of plastic bottles that are known to be endocrine disrupters . Echoing the GAO report, Wurth also noted that 75 percent of water bottles produced U.S. are still discarded rather than recycled. And while those bottles represent less than 1 percent of the total municipal waste stream, according to government data, producing bottled water is far more energy intensive. A number of college campuses have considered or implemented bottled water bans , and several cities have curtailed purchases of bottled water by city-owned facilities . A ballot initiative in Concord, Mass., that would have made that city the first to issue a blanket ban on bottled water sales was narrowly defeated in April , although voters approved an educational initiative aimed at curbing bottled water use. The IBWA had threatened to sue if such a measure had passed. Last month, the trade group reported that consumption of bottled water was up 3.5 percent in 2010, after two consecutive years of decline attributed to “poor economic conditions.” Total bottled water consumption hit 8.75 billion gallons last year, up from 8.45 billion gallons in 2009, while per-capita consumption increased 2.6 percent in 2010, according to the IBWA. That amounts, on average, to every person in America guzzling about 28.3 gallons of bottled water last year.

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Nathan Newman: Pro-Labor Progressives Should Support The AT&T – T-Mobile Merger

June 23, 2011

Why should progressives care about the proposed merger of AT&T with T-Mobile? Because AT&T is the ONLY unionized wireless company in the country and the merger would ensure that 20,000+ T-Mobile workers would have the chance to join the 43,000 currently unionized AT&T Mobility employees with decent wages and legal protections on the job. There are a range of other likely benefits from the merger, from a projected deployment of high-speed broadband to over 97% of the population and better service for existing AT&T and T-Mobile customers from more efficient integration of available spectrum from both companies. But stepping away from the impact on consumers, which is being endlessly debated, progressives should be focusing as well on the massive gain for workers rights from the merger. A Company That Has Worked with Its Union Employees: In an era when workers rights are on the chopping block even in the public sector, this is a chance to strengthen labor rights in the private sector, where a multi-decade war on the labor movement has decimated most unions. AT&T has actually been and remained a unique employer, agreeing to stay neutral when workers seek to organize unions in various units and recognizing the union whenever a majority of those workers sign cards requesting it. Based on this model approach to employee rights, American Rights at Work, which led the drive for the Employee Free Choice Act, picked AT&T as a model employer in its 2007 “Partnerships that Work” list where they wrote: “AT&T and its unions serve as allies and business partners working to advance the success of the company.” When AT&T has acquired new units in recent years, the workers have been able to choose to join the union without the usual employer intimidation that is constant in other firms. In fact, unionized workers at AT&T’s Mobility wireless division grew from 9300 members in 2001 to 43,000 today, most of that growth during the heart of the Bush era. When AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson was asked about workers rights in an investor conference call about the proposed T-Mobile merger, he said : “We have with the CWA the Communication Workers of America] a card check/neutrality agreement so if those employees decide they want to be represented by the CWA that process is there … In fact you saw that with the AT&T Wireless deal. You saw the CWA begin to represent those employees in fairly short order. That’s how that process will work out.” Can you imagine that statement coming from other company executives? In an era when Boeing is trying to bust its unions by opening non-union production lines in South Carolina, Wal-Mart routinely intimidates its employees seeking a voice on the job, and a host of other employers wage endless day-to-day attacks on labor rights, this merger is one of the few opportunities where tens of thousands of workers at a place like T-Mobile will be able to ask to have a union recognized without risking the loss of their jobs. The Anti-Union Alternatives: Right now, workers at T-Mobile face a complete atmosphere or fear and intimidation. On top of the normal threats of being fired if they form a union, T-Mobile workers were told by the company that they would be punished if they said anything negative about the company even on their personal Facebook page. This led to charges before the National Labor Relations Board , which were just recently settled with the company being required as part of the settlement to tell employees they actually did have free speech rights on their own social networking pages. With the parent of T-Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, looking to pull out of the U.S. market, the possibility looms that if AT&T does not acquire T-Mobile, the company might be merged with the even more viciously anti-union Sprint Nextel. Sprint has a long history of being arguably the most anti-worker company in the telecom industry, racking up multiple NLRB charges in repeated organizing campaigns. Notoriously, Sprint even shut down a whole subsidiary in San Francisco called La Conexion Familiar (the Family Connection), which sold long-distance service to the Spanish-speaking community, when those workers voted for a union. With Sprint’s majority ownership of telecom company Clearwire, a merged T-Mobile-Sprint would create a viciously anti-union gorilla controlling more spectrum than any other firm in the industry. So having T-Mobile workers land with AT&T is all the more important given that alternative. Why Protecting Labor Rights in Telecom Matters: Strengthening the labor movement in a major private sector industry is important all by itself, but what makes the 43,000 unionized wireless workers at AT&T — hopefully to be joined by the 20,000+ T-Mobile workers legally eligible to join a union — is that they are one of the few unionized outposts in the growing high-technology sector. The labor movement needs to expand in that sector and AT&T Mobility can be a model for how a union in a technology company can work with its employer both to protect workers rights and build out new technology for customers. Also, notably, AT&T’s wireless unionized workforce is heavily southern in a country where few workers in the South have ever had a chance to unionized. AT&T’s corporate headquarters are in Texas, reflecting its origin as the Southwestern Bell “baby bell,” which went on to acquire other telephone companies around the country, including AT&T long distance (from which it borrowed a new name). With thousands of southern wireless workers joining the union, this has meant that the telecom industry has actually been a beacon of union success in a region notoriously hostile to labor. Progressives Should Stand with Labor on AT&T-T-Mobile Merger: A number of consumer groups have argued against the merger as potentially harming consumers and competition. I’ll write more on this in a future column, but these consumer worries seem overwrought. Post-merger, AT&T will still be a minority player in the wireless world. The large majority of the wireless industry and, unfortunately, the majority of workers in the industry will be in the remaining non-union companies, all looking to undercut AT&T at the expense of their own workers’ rights. And competition in the cell phone industry, if anything, is exploding. Right now, anyone with an AT&T iPhone, for example, can bypass AT&T’s own phone plan to make free Skype phone calls, use Facebook’s Beluga texting service as an alternative to AT&T’s own texting plan and even bypass AT&T’s dataplans with wi-fi at home, at work or at coffee shops all over. Hundreds of apps are appearing on smartphones every day to compete with services previously only available from the wireless companies themselves. When you contrast hypothetical competition worries with the concrete gains in workers rights for tens of thousands of T-Mobile workers, it’s hard to argue this is a close call for progressives. This is one merger pro-labor progressives should be lining up to support. Disclosure: Nathan Newman has consulted on technology issues with the Communication Workers of America, which supports the merger. His views in his columns are his own.

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The Future According To Eric Schmidt

June 23, 2011

On stage Wednesday at Cannes Lions, Eric Schmidt seemed like the kind of man–perhaps the only man, other than Steve Jobs–who could effortlessly convince an international crowd of 20 and 30-somethings to join a suicide cult and ascend with him to the heavens. Google’s executive chairman has that wealthy California brand of optimism that is as infectious as it is understated. He describes the future of human existence the same calm way chef Thomas Keller might describe his roast chicken. Yes, it will change your life. But it’s only chicken. What does Schmidt’s future look like?

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Marshall Goldsmith: Why Hollywood is Placing its Bets on Viral Video

June 17, 2011

Summer blockbuster season is here, and Hollywood studios are pulling out all the stops to promote their big films. Aside from TV commercials, billboards, product tie-ins, and the usual ilk, Hollywood is trying something new this year to promote their summer flicks: viral video campaigns. In fact, Hollywood is leading the charge when it comes to this emerging marketing medium — combining their long-held creative and distribution prowess to produce slick viral videos that get shared by millions of viewers. This is such an interesting subject to me that I met with Dan Greenberg, CEO of social video ad company Sharethrough, recently to talk about some of the ways Hollywood is setting the pace for viral video. MG: What makes a video go “viral”? DG: Viral video is both an art and a science. The science behind making a video “go viral” involves creating content that’s likely to be shared, using new distribution techniques and social tactics to increase sharing, and optimizing content in response to sharing patterns. Videos that get shared have three main psychological motivators: emotion, identity, and information. Creating an emotional video that is touching, sad, funny, or scary will boost its chance of getting shared. Sharing feelings is a basic human need. If your video captures a human emotion, users will share it, because they are not just sharing your content, they are sharing the feeling your video has created. Videos that tap into people’s individual identity also get shared a lot. When you recommend a movie, band, or book to a friend, these recommendations partly define your tastes, thoughts, and personality. When creating a viral video, it’s important to ask: “When a user shares this video, what are they saying about themselves?” No one wants to share a video that would reflect badly on them, so viral videos tend to have messages that people want to align themselves with. If you want your video to go viral among a certain demographic, make sure the content maps to this group’s taste, sense of humor, or collective beliefs. Informational videos also get shared widely. People are hard-wired to teach, learn, and share information, and if they see an online video that contains interesting or useful information, they will be highly likely to share it. MG: What’s the “state of the industry” when it comes to viral video? DG: Viral video has moved from an experimental practice to an established, measurable marketing tactic that delivers real results. Videos that “go viral” aren’t just happy accidents anymore: when you see a video with over a million views, there’s typically some smart distribution and optimization strategies involved. We actually use the term “social video advertising” to refer to our category, because advertisers can now invest in making their video content go viral, just like they would invest in distributing a TV commercial. This is definitely becoming a much more mainstream practice; a few months ago, we crunched numbers at my company and found that the average viral video campaign budget tripled from a year earlier – which goes to show how seriously brands are taking viral video. Why is this approach becoming so much more common? Because people will watch videos that feel like “experiences” where they won’t watch videos that feel like ads. Your garden-variety video ad is typically just a TV commercial distributed on the web, which we’ve all learned to ignore. Social video is about content that people enjoy and will want to share. In the very near future, sharing will become the Holy Grail for advertisers. A shared view is not only “earned media” that advertisers don’t have to pay for, but studies also show that when a brand video is shared, viewers will spend up to three times more time watching it. MG: How has Hollywood led the pack around viral video? DG: When it comes to movies, word-of-mouth has always been a key factor in success. Hollywood has always found innovative ways to combine creativity and distribution to build buzz around a film. Viral video isn’t that different. It’s about creating exciting, engaging, thought-provoking content, then using innovative social distribution tactics to get people to share this content with friends. Hollywood understands perhaps better than any other sector that people embrace and share content, not ads. The old-fashioned movie trailer is actually a pre-cursor to viral video. People have been sharing movie trailers online before the term “viral video” even existed, and trailers are shared more than twice as often as other video content! Now Hollywood is leveraging this huge head start to create specific videos to boost movie buzz before and during a film release. Hollywood really gets the idea that great content gets shared. They start with creating gripping content, such as a trailer, then devise a distribution strategy to make sure that content is seen by as many people as possible. In the past decade, they’ve also learned how to distribute trailers online (sometimes “leaking” them) to boost viral sharing. Hollywood is now getting more sophisticated with trailer marketing, and taking full advantage of the flexibility of social video to distribute “red band” (racy or R-rated) clips, long-form trailers, and subversive, funny, or tangential viral videos that are only lightly connected to a film along with their standard trailers to keep things interesting. This non-standard content actually generates much higher rates of sharing than regular trailers because of the feeling of exclusivity as stand-alone content. Movie marketers are also taking steps to distribute videos to a social audience – the people most likely to watch and share their content. For example, Hollywood was among the first to test drive distribution of movie trailers into social games on Facebook. Movie marketers are also trailblazing trans-media distribution across tablets, mobile apps, video games, e-books and e-comic books, and other related online media. MG: What do you see coming down the pike from Hollywood? DG: Hollywood is already doing interesting work in measuring the impact of viral video. They are using advanced analytics to measure the reach and sharing patterns of video trailers among different demographics, then using this data to understand demographics and potential markets where they should first release films. Movie marketers were also among the first to measure social video metrics such as “sharethrough rate” — which measures the rate at which a video is shared — in order to quantify viral success. By measuring sharethrough rates, movie studios can better understand which trailers to use for online advertising campaigns targeted to specific demographics; which demographics to include in campaign targeting; and even which potential markets hold the most potential for high ticket sales. MG: What are some recent examples of innovative campaigns? DG: We loved Disney’s short original video they produced to promote the new Muppets movie Green With Envy that is a parody of The Hangover II — this is a great example of moving away from traditional trailers to more original content. Another great example of non-standard content is the interactive YouTube video page for Kung Fu Panda 2 that features a mix of videos of Jack Black and the animated main character, Po. We also think the promotion for Super 8 has really taken things to another level. For example, they actually placed an interactive video ad for the movie as a playable level inside of the video game, Portal 2. Look for more of this type of social video integration in the future, both on console games as well as inside social games on Facebook. If you want to find out more about viral videos and how you can use them in your business and leadership, Dan is presenting a two-hour workshop on making videos go viral on June 22nd at the Cannes Lions conference. This is a fascinating subject that is definitely key to a successful future.

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U.S. Regulators: Progress Being Made Towards Global Financial Rules

June 16, 2011

WASHINGTON — Federal regulators said Thursday they are collaborating with other nations on rules intended to prevent another global financial crisis. The topic was raised at a congressional hearing looking into whether last year’s financial overhaul could drive business overseas and hurt the U.S. economy. House Republicans are trying to weaken or kill the law before regulators finish writing rules opposed by the banking and financial community. Regulators, meanwhile, have said they will miss next month’s deadline to complete some of the rules a year after President Barack Obama signed the law. Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo, Treasury Department official Lael Brainard and other regulators told a House panel they have made progress in coming up with new capital requirements for banks together with officials overseas. On the House floor Thursday, lawmakers voted to adopt legislation that would delay by more than a year new rules for reporting trades in derivatives, the complex financial instruments blamed for helping precipitate the 2008 financial crisis. The amendment to the bill funding the Agriculture Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission would require the CFTC to first have other rules in place to help it collect derivatives market data. The bill also would slash by 44 percent the Obama administration’s funding request for the CFTC for the budget year starting Oct. 1, to $172 million. The value of derivatives depends on the future price of some other investment. They have ballooned into a $600 trillion market. Regulators say they pose a threat to the stability of the financial system. Wall Street executives, appearing later before the House Financial Services Committee, maintained that the stricter financial rules could crimp U.S. firms, hurt the economy and cost jobs. “The regulatory pendulum clearly has now begun to swing to a point that risks hobbling our financial system and our economic growth,” Barry Zubrow, the chief risk officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., told the panel. Brainard, the Treasury undersecretary for international affairs, said officials have been working “tirelessly” to create a level playing field of financial regulation across the U.S., Europe, Asia and other business centers. “There are some who would argue that the United States is moving too fast, that we should wait to see what other countries implement,” Brainard testified. “I do not agree. I would argue that by moving first and leading from a position of strength, we are elevating the world’s standards to ours.” Rep. Spencer Bachus, R-Ala., the committee’s chairman, warned that a coming “tsunami” of regulations could “push capital, industry and jobs right out of the country.” Democratic lawmakers defended the overhaul but some voiced concern about specific rules being considered, such as the stricter capital requirements for financial institutions deemed by regulators to pose a potential threat to the system. John Walsh, the acting comptroller of the currency whose Treasury Department agency oversees national banks, said he was concerned that if the capital requirements were “taken too far, we may limit the availability of credit that is needed for economic growth.” Walsh has disagreed with other federal regulators on how stringent the new capital requirements should be.

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A Dirty Gold Rush

June 12, 2011

DELTA 1, Peru — A gold rush that accelerated with the onset of the 2008 global recession is compounding the woes of the Amazon basin, laying waste to Peruvian rain forest and spilling tons of toxic mercury into the air and water. With gold’s price soaring globally as the metal became a hedge against financial uncertainty, the army of small-scale miners in the state of Madre de Dios has swelled to some 40,000. The result: Diesel exhaust sullies the air, trees are toppled to get at the sandy, gold-flecked earth and the scars inflicted on the land are visible on satellite photos. The work is dangerous and produces a fifth of Peru’s overall annual yield of roughly 175 metric tons of gold that make this country the world’s No. 5 producer. The mining also is almost entirely illegal. “Extracting an ounce of gold costs from $400 to $500 and the profit is $1,000 per ounce,” notes Peru’s environment minister, Antonio Brack. In just a decade, gold has more than tripled in value. The situation in the southeastern state of Madre de Dios, which borders Brazil and Bolivia, is mirrored in dozens of the countries where gold is similarly mined, and where the desperately poor often end up working for the most unsavory of opportunists. Government controls are mostly futile. Neighboring Colombia and Ecuador have mounted crackdowns in the past year – Ecuador’s military last month dynamited 67 pieces of heavy equipment – but when authorities depart, the diggers troop back and work resumes. In Madre de Dios, the informal production is unrecorded, untaxed and carried out on public lands where claims are awarded by regional officials, many of them grown rich in the process. As the industry has grown, heavy machinery has moved in bearing Caterpillar, Volvo and other international trademarks into a state the size of Maine or Portugal, whose remotest reaches are believed inhabited by uncontacted Indian tribes. In February the Peruvian navy dynamited 13 dredges which, working in violation of a government ban, were choking the Madre de Dios river with silt, killing plants and destroying habitats. Protesting laborers blockaded Madre de Dios’ only highway, and at least three people were shot and killed by police sent from Lima. “One of the big hydraulic dredges we destroyed could easily harvest a kilogram (worth about $45,000) of gold a day,” said Brack. Rather than try to evict the thousands of protesting informal miners, the government decided to work to “formalize” their operations, which have denuded well over 180 square kilometers (70 square miles ) of jungle in Madre de Dios. “In practice, nothing happened. They moved against a small percentage of dredges that are not necessarily what hurts the environment most,” said Pavel Cartagena, an environmental activist who recently returned to Puerto Maldonado, the state capital, after death threats drove him away for a year. Brack said the crackdown served notice to local politicians profiting from the industry. “We found that nearly all the public officials in Puerto Maldonado were involved,” the minister said. “In 2010, the regional mining director had a mining company. His No. 2 had one. His wife had one. His sister had one (as did) the sister of the No. 2. They were all in it. And you think anyone is going to regulate anything?” The state prides itself on its biodiversity and attracts eco-tourists for its monkeys, macaws and anacondas. Yet its forest is pocked with craters gouged by grime-coated men who tear the earth away with high-pressure water hoses. And that is only the beginning. To capture the gold flecks, mostly the size of a grain of sand, mercury is used because it is the cheapest, easiest method. It then seeps into the air and rivers, an estimated 35 metric tons a year in Madre de Dios alone, slowly poisoning people, plants, animals and fish, scientific studies show. Most of the migrant diggers, who have doubled the state’s population since the early 1990s, arrive nearly penniless. Some are criminals. Some are preteens sold by their parents into servitude, says Feliciano Coila, a lawyer with state child protection services. The goal of the most ambitious newcomers is to gather enough gold to graduate from peon to subcontractor, put together a crew of a dozen or so miners, provide equipment and buy access to a claim. “You need a minimum of 50 grams ($2,200 worth of gold) to be invited into a camp” to work a claim, said Miguel Herrera, a mining organizer. Unskilled new arrivals generally can amass about a gram a day, currently worth more than $40. It is a princely sum for Peruvian highlanders accustomed to $3-a-day wages. Most prospectors live in a string of jungle boomtowns. One of the more established is Delta 1, located on the Puquiri River flood plain. It is reached after a precarious canoe crossing of the Inambiri river, then a wide dirt toll road across a white-sand river basin exhausted by mining and looking hit by a tsunami. Delta 1′s roughly 6,500 residents lack running water, electricity, sewers and police but have ample machine shops, groceries and brothels. An older town, Huepetuhe, is flanked by mountains of gravel mine tailings towering over washes that further disfigure a mining wasteland 1.2 miles wide (2 kilometers) and nearly 20 kilometers (more than 10 miles) long. Huepetuhe, established in the 1980s, just this year got running water but has long had two entire streets of brothels on stilts. They front a brown sea of silt, the accumulated runoff of adjacent mines that is slowly engulfing the red-light district. Other boomtowns, mostly lawless, gunslinging places that do not even have names, have sprouted alongside the Interoceanic Highway that connects Puerto Maldonado, the capital, to the rest of Peru. When finished this year, it will link the Pacific coast with neighboring Brazil, and attract even more fortune hunters. Social worker Oscar Guadelupe, whose organization, Huarayo, runs shelters for child miners and teen prostitutes, counts some 2,000 females working in “prostibars” in the mining corridor, a third of them adolescents. Day and night, the towns are bathed in the eerie glow of blowtorches as welders fix miners’ overworked pumps. Many prospectors say they would be happy to pay taxes and get services. “It’s better to pay the state than to keep suffering abuse and insecurity,” said Leoncio Jordan Paiba, a 39-year-old miner and father of four. He says he gathers 12 grams of gold a day but, in addition to paying for workers, equipment and fuel, he must pay the claim’s titleholder a weekly 20-gram levy and also keep the area’s Amaraukiri Indians happy. “They say this land is theirs. They come pointing guns,” said Jordan. “If you don’t pay them they damage your equipment. They’ve thrown motors into the mud.” As he speaks, three men are hosing a crater’s walls with water when one side collapses, nearly burying them alive. They wait a few seconds and resume work. Such a collapse killed a young digger known only as Martin. His employers dumped his body in Delta 1, so friends cobbled together a plywood casket, painted it black and set it in the town’s dusty central plaza. They lit candles and held a wake, getting drunk on cheap liquor. DREMH, the regional mining agency, has allowed wildcat prospectors to invade buffer zones adjacent to nature preserves and Indian land, and hands out mining permits without first gaining environmental approval. Meanwhile, Madre de Dios state received less than $20,000 last year in revenue-sharing from taxes on mining. A DREMH inspector, Manuel Campo, said he is often denied entry into mining camps, although they are on public land. “The mob arrives and you can’t do a thing,” he said. At one mining camp, Ronny Calcina was on break from one of the 24-hour shifts he shares with three other men. After 18 months of backbreaking work, the 34-year-old native of the poor, neighboring highlands province of Puno said he is ready to go back to the family’s potato fields. He thought he would be earning a lot more, he said. Besides, his wife and 3-year-old son, who live in Delta 1, keep getting sick. All have had malaria. Calcina is worried about being poisoned by mercury, which he is exposed to constantly as it is burned out of the puttylike amalgam it forms when it clings to gold dust. Additional mercury is burned off in open-air storefronts that buy the gold, including a half dozen opposite the main market of Puerto Maldonado. “This is an area where most people shop, eat, work. This is the center of life for most of Puerto Maldonado,” said Luis Fernandez, a Stanford University environmental scientist who studies the mercury contamination. Levels he measured inside the shops were 20 to 40 times above World Health Organization standards, and 10 to 20 times above the maximum outside. “Everyone is being exposed in this area,” said Fernandez. “The people working in the shops are getting dosed with enormous amounts of mercury every day.” The U.N. is among organizations working to educate prospectors about the dangers and get them to switch to cleaner technology. But Peru is South America’s biggest mercury importer and its sale is unregulated. Taming Peru’s illegal mining juggernaut might be possible if gold sales were regulated, but they have been unfettered since 1991, when the government closed what had been the only authorized gold-purchasing bank during a wave of privatizations. Peruvian law requires every buyer of gold to produce certification proving it was mined legally. The law is universally flouted, however, and there is no identification system that would allow it to be tracked. So it is impossible to know whether the gold in a chain or ring bought in New York or Paris was refined with mercury. Organizations such as the U.K.-based Fairtrade Foundation have set standards for certifying suppliers whose gold does minimal environmental damage. Wal-Mart is among several big retailers expressing interest, but production is so far minimal. In February of last year, Peru’s government decreed that all informal mining in Madre de Dios be registered, taxed and regulated. Thousands of prospectors responded by blocking the Panamerican Highway two months later. Some hurled dynamite at police, who responded with bullets, killing six protesters. The decree was suspended, but Peru’s media asked why authorities were not punishing companies that buy gold without certifying its provenance, as required by law. The director of mining in Peru’s Ministry of Energy and Mining, Victor Vargas, said authorities were working on identifying the companies involved. “Various companies have been mentioned. We’re collecting evidentiary documents,” he told the newspaper El Comercio. Asked by The Associated Press more than a year later to name the culprits, Vargas demurred. “Look, when it becomes official, the ministry will do so,” he said. “I can’t talk about what’s still being worked on.” ___ Frank Bajak on Twitter: http://twitter.com/fbajak ___ Associated Press writer Gonzalo Solano in Quito, Ecuador, and Martin Villena in Lima, Peru, contributed to this report.

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The Agriculture Industry’s Dirty Little Secret

June 4, 2011

WASHINGTON — The agriculture industry fears a disaster is on the horizon if the one bit of new immigration policy that Congress seems to agree on becomes law. A plan to require all American businesses to run their employees through E-Verify, a program that confirms each is legally entitled to work in the U.S., could wreak havoc on an industry where 80 percent of the field workers are illegal immigrants. So could the increased paperwork audits already under way by the Obama administration. “We are headed toward a train wreck,” said Rep. Zoe Lofgren, a California Democrat whose district includes agriculture-rich areas. “The stepped up (workplace) enforcement has brought this to a head.” Lofgren said farmers are worried that their work force is about to disappear. They say they want to hire legal workers and U.S. citizens, but that it’s nearly impossible, given the relatively low wages and back-breaking work. Wages can range from minimum wage to more than $20 an hour. But workers often are paid by the piece; the faster they work, they more they make. A steady income lasts only as long as the planting and harvesting seasons, which can be measured in weeks. “Few citizens express interest, in large part because this is hard, tough work,” Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsak said this past week. “Our broken immigration system offers little hope for producers to do the right thing.” Arturo S. Rodriguez, president of United Farm Workers, said migrant farm workers are exposed to blistering heat with little or no shade and few water breaks. It’s skilled work, he said, requiring produce pickers to be exact and quick. While the best mushroom pickers can earn about $35,000 to $40,000 a year for piece work, there’s little chance for a good living and American workers don’t seem interested in farm jobs. “It is extremely difficult, hard, dangerous work,” Rodriguez said. Last year Rodriguez’s group started the “Take Our Jobs” campaign to entice American workers to take the fields. He said of about 86,000 inquiries the group got about the offer, only 11 workers took jobs. “That really was thought up by farm workers trying to figure out what is it we needed to do to show that we are not trying to take away anyone’s job,” Rodriguez said. Vilsak and the American Farm Bureau Federation president, Bob Stallman, said in a recent conference call with reporters that the best and likely only hope to stave off an economic catastrophe for American farmers and consumers is comprehensive overhaul of immigration policy. Vilsak said the industry is worth about $5 billion to $9 billion a year. “We need to address the agriculture labor supply,” Stallman said. “This situation will affect the future of America’s farmers and ranchers.” Manuel Cunha, president of Nisei Farmers League, a group representing growers in central California, said farmers don’t have the wherewithal to verify a worker’s status when their labor force is often hired on the spot and in a hurry to pick ripe crops. Forcing them to verify a worker’s legal status, he said, would prove disastrous. “If we were to use E-Verify now, we’d shut down, either that or farmers would go to prison,” said Cunha, a Fresno-based citrus farmer. “We’ve admitted many workers are not legal and if you have to get rid of everybody, where do I go to get my labor? Nowhere. We have to have a work force that we can put in the system.” Shawn Coburn, a politically active farmer who grows thousands of acres of almonds on the west side Fresno County, said he favors tighter borders, a guest worker program and a path to citizenship for those already in the U.S., or at the very least their children. But, like Cunha, he believes a mandatory E-Verify plan would be nothing but trouble for the industry. “I don’t think it’s going to happen, but if it does it would throw the California economy for a loop,” Coburn said. Without a broad overhaul in the works, industry officials have focused on improving the H-2A temporary agricultural workers visa program that’s aimed at allowing season workers to come and work on U.S. farms. The program, however, is costly, time consuming and inefficient, according to Cathleen Enright, vice president of federal government affairs for the Western Growers Association. “It has never been a great program or easy to work with,” Enright said. “It’s an unbelievably crushing program.” There isn’t enough capacity in the system to process, interview and approve visa applications for the nearly 1 million seasonal workers who take to the fields every season. Farmers are required to pay for a worker’s transportation from their home country to the fields, provide housing and other benefits. Even minor violations of the numerous rules and regulations that govern the H-2A program can lead to hefty fines, Enright said. “It’s too expensive, it’s too litigious, it’s too bureaucratic,” said Lee Wicker, deputy director of the North Carolina Growers Association. “We need a program that farmers can use and have confidence in.” Rep. Trey Gowdy, R-S.C., said farmers in his area want to do the right thing and hire legal workers but they are frustrated with the stifling bureaucracy that comes with the visa program. “It’s a labyrinthine visa process, with the slow walking of applications,” Gowdy said. “You could not by accident come up with a better plan to ruin the small family farm.” Farmers, he said, “are just at their wits’ end.” Using the program to get workers can put farmers at a disadvantage if their competitors decide to take their chances and hire illegal workers, Wicker said. Lawmakers agree the visa program is problematic, but there’s a wide divide on how to make it workable. In 2009, Rep. Howard Berman, D-Calif., and Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., introduced legislation that would have given temporary resident status to immigrant farm workers and have created a path to legal residency for those workers after five years. Neither bill, known as the AgJOBS Act, made it out committee. The idea is part of the discussion involving changes to the seasonal workers visa program, but Republicans have pledged to block it because it includes a path to legal status for immigrant workers. Rep. Dan Lungren, a California Republican from an agriculture industry-heavy district near Sacramento, has said he sees that same “train wreck” Lofgren described, but that the AgJOBS bill isn’t the answer. “We’re going to have a crisis in agriculture,” Lungren said during a hearing this year on the visa program by the House Judiciary subcommittee on immigration policy and enforcement. “And while it sounds great to say an agreement (on AgJOBS) is going to take care of it, it’s not going to pass.” About the only hope for success for any immigration-related legislation, Lungren and others say, is a bill that would make it mandatory for American employers to use the government’s E-Verify program to ensure their workers are legal. GOP Rep. Lamar Smith of Texas, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, has pledged to introduce such legislation. Such a proposal appeared to get a push this past week when the Supreme Court ruled 5-3 in favor of an Arizona law that allows the state to penalize businesses for hiring illegal immigrant workers. Agriculture officials say there needs to be some exception for farm workers. “It needs to take into account the unique aspects of agriculture,” Vilsak said. ___ Associated Press writers Gosia Wozniacka and Tracie Cone in Fresno, Calif., contributed to this report. ___ Array ___ Online: Array Array Array Array

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"Bosnia-Herzegovina Real Estate Report Q3 2011 … – Abort America

June 4, 2011

BMI Methodology – How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts – Construction Industry – Bank Lending – Real Estate /Construction Business Environment Rating – Table: Weighting Of Indicators – Project Finance Ratings Indicators …

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Obama Distances Himself From New Economic Sputters

June 4, 2011

WASHINGTON — Distancing himself from new economic sputters, President Barack Obama on Saturday declared that recent “headwinds” were the result of high gasoline prices, Japan’s disastrous earthquake and jitters over a European fiscal crisis. He cited the U.S. auto industry’s resurgence as an inspiration for a broader recovery. “We’re a people who don’t give up, who do big things, who shape our own destiny,” the president said in his weekly radio and Internet address . The message was taped Friday during Obama’s visit to a Chrysler plant in Toledo, Ohio. And the address was hardly different than the remarks he offered to about 350 Chrysler workers. The White House has spent practically every day this week drawing attention to the industry comeback and taking credit for Obama’s unpopular decision to bail out Chrysler and General Motors and guide them through bankruptcy in 2009. Like Friday’s comments to Chrysler workers, Obama’s address Saturday did not mention the bleak unemployment numbers announced Friday for the month of May. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the economy last month created only a net 54,000 jobs and unemployment inched up to 9.1 percent. “We’re facing some tough headwinds,” Obama said. “Lately, it’s high gas prices, the earthquake in Japan and unease about the European fiscal situation. That will happen from time to time.” The Bush and Obama administrations pumped $80 billion in taxpayer money into Chrysler and GM, with Obama guiding the companies into bankruptcy. The companies are now reporting profits, Chrysler has paid back all but $1.3 billion of its federal infusion, and the White House declared this week that the overall loss to taxpayers will be $14 billion, far less than initially expected. Delivering the Republican address , Sen. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee cast the Obama administration as too friendly to labor unions and said industries are more likely to flourish in environments where unions don’t hold as much sway. He noted that foreign auto companies like Nissan and Volkswagen have chosen to set up plants in his home state, a state with right-to-work laws that don’t require employees to join unions or pay union dues. He cited the case of Boeing, which was accused last month by the National Labor Relations Board of retaliating against union workers in Washington state who went on strike in 2008 by locating a new assembly line for its 787 aircraft in South Carolina, a state with right-to-work laws. The NLRB is seeking a court order that would force Boeing to return all 787 assembly work to Washington. “Our goal should be to make it easier and cheaper to create private-sector jobs in this country,” Alexander said. “Giving workers the right to join or not to join a union helps to create a competitive environment in which more manufacturers like Nissan and Boeing can make here what they sell here.” WATCH:

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Scaling 150-Feet For Wind Power

June 2, 2011

Chris Bley, the son of an engineer and a school psychologist, remembers what his life was like right after he graduated from college — he sat at his desk, stared out the window and waited for the weekend to come around. “I worked for a computer company,” Chris said. “We manufactured barcode readers.” Having grown up and attended school in California, Chris was always an avid mountain climber and environmentalist. Even while working a desk job, climbing remained an important part of his life. But during one climbing trip at Joshua Tree National Park in southeastern California, he met two East German best friends who had actually figured out a way to make their living climbing on ropes. “They scaled churches and other buildings, and made their money this way,” he said. These guys were also part of a “rope access” team who’d wrapped a German Parliament building, the Reichstag, in fabric, as part of an art project. Chris was intrigued, and in the early 2000s he visited Germany himself to see how it was done. He trained extensively with his friends, learning the ropes (sorry) and seeing them in action, before heading back home to California, where he came up with the idea of scaling wind turbines. “I remembered seeing them all start to pop up around me, and in Palm Springs. And I thought, this could be the perfect opportunity.” So he started attending wind power conferences and shows across the West Coast, getting his name out there, shaking hands, and meeting people. He learned as much as he could about the industry, and eventually companies began to take notice. Chris called his company, ” Rope Partner .” “Rope access can save these companies lots of money on cranes and lifts,” Chris said. “It saves them a lot in energy costs.” Today, Chris and the other team members, many of whom he “recruits” from a local California rock-climbing gym, scale heights of up to 150 feet in order to clean, inspect, or repair wind turbines. Some jobs are as far away as Canada and Mexico, and his climbers live all across the country. It’s kind of the ideal job, Chris says. His freelancers are able to work on a certain project for a few months and then let loose to climb recreationally on their own time. What started as a one-man operation has quickly expanded to a team of over fifty, and he has plans to expand to “offshore” turbines, where the wind is much more consistent. Have there been accidents? “Sure, a few pinched fingers, things like that, but nothing too bad,” Chris said. “We take all that very seriously.” Chris insists that once he clung to his plan and made it his primary goal, he was able to fully realize the future success of his business. “I was very confident with this idea,” he said. “I knew it was something that would last. And help the environment. Both of those things were very important to me.”

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Caroline Dowd-Higgins: Does Your Career Zig or Zag?

June 2, 2011

My father spent his entire career with one organization and 45+ years working his way up the ladder of the competitive banking and finance industry. While he enjoyed multiple retirement parties and was given the proverbial gold watch upon his self-determined exit from the workforce, he represents a generation of professionals that are becoming extinct. In 2011, it’s not so much that people have changed their professional values but that organizations don’t honor the long-term employee as they did in years past. The “grow talent from within” philosophy can still be found in some of the corporate giants like Proctor & Gamble and DuPont but today organizations are also embracing the new industry zig-zaggers . These individuals have multiple companies represented on their resumes and work for brief stints, then move on. What they bring to the table is innovation, an ability to be flexible and embrace change, and a fresh approach to solving problems with creative solutions. Recruiters and hiring managers are now welcoming the new industry zig-zaggers because these professionals know their unique value-add in the workplace. They bring with them a breath of fresh air and often the industry tricks-of-the-trade from competitor organizations. Many zig-zaggers have made conscious career transitions because they find change stimulating, while others have had to showcase their resiliency in an unmerciful job market and needed to reinvent quickly. It used to be that having short stints at multiple companies was a red flag when applying for a new position. Times have changed and these candidates can market themselves wisely as desirable hires if they don’t present as an immediate flight risk. Here are some things to consider if you are a conscious zig-zagger , or someone trying to make a fresh start in this unpredictable job economy. Showcase Your Value-Add . Every employer wants to know what they will get as a return on their investment if they hire you. Be prepared to clearly define what you bring to the table. Develop your 30/60/90 day plan and systematically outline your strategy for success in the organization. Be well prepared and know what the company needs before your interview. Illustrate Your Flexibility, Innovation, and Ability to Handle Change . These are the most highly sought after competencies as reported by head hunters and recruiters these days. The company can train you for additional skills but you must be a good cultural fit and be ready to handle whatever comes your way. The only consistent thing about this career world is that it will continue to change quickly. Zig-zaggers should demonstrate how they bounced back after a set-back and handle uncertainty with an open mind and a positive attitude during the new job interview. Often new leaders are born when they step up to the plate and accept organizational change without complaining. Here’s where a zig-zagger can have an edge. Know the Value of Transferable Skills in Career Reinvention . Many zig-zaggers have reinvented their careers in entirely different industries. Be firmly in control of your own marketing message to help others understand the value of your transferable skills. Be ready to give examples and consider this when selecting your references that will be called if you are a final candidate. They too should be able to speak to the power of your transferable skills. Long Term Career Plan . Some professionals became zig-zaggers beyond their control, and others have opted for short-term assignments to consciously grow their careers when they hit the glass ceiling. In many companies, moving up and out is the only opportunity for promotion and career growth. Any hiring manager worth their salt is going to probe into your long-term career plan. If you value security and longevity in an organization, don’t be shy about saying so, especially if this is also a company value. But be aware that organizations want you around long enough so that you become profitable to them after the initial training and orientation period. If you are a perpetual zig-zagger you will need to choose organizations that embrace your constant momentum and have a shorter value-add period for their pay back. Since a lifelong career path in a single organization is going by the way of the dinosaur, you must be in control of your own career destiny. Don’t assume your boss is looking out for your career future. Consider where you want to be in five-year increments and develop a plan to get yourself there. If upward mobility requires a bit of zig-zagging , you will not be ostracized as long as you can definitively show your value to a company and a sincere interest in working at the organization. Whether you zig or zag — your career destiny is in your hands! Caroline Dowd-Higgins authored the book This Is Not the Career I Ordered and maintains the career reinvention blog of the same name ( www.carolinedowdhiggins.com ) She is also the Director of Career & Professional Development at Indiana University Maurer School of Law.

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Tom Doctoroff: Advertising in China: What’s New, What’s Not

June 2, 2011

It seems many of the big Chinese ad agencies are not headed up by Chinese people. Why is this the case? Did Westerners bring the “advertising industry” with them? The first clients who advertised big — i.e., with any degree of professionalism — were the large FMCG companies such as Unilever and P&G. When I arrived in Shanghai, Unilever was approximately 70% of our revenue. Today, this is certainly not the case. Local brands are absolutely critical to any agency’s bottom and top lines. If a 4A’s company doesn’t have a roster of local clients, they are simply not a player on the Chinese adscape. The fact that there are still many expatriates who run agencies — actually, there are fewer of them now today, but foreigners are still reasonably represented at the top and down a few levels as well — is one of the disappointments of our industry. (I included expatriate Chinese from Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore in this group.) Of course, there will always be a need for for individuals with an “internationalista” outlook for clients with operations centralized outside of the mainland. But advertising, as an industry, has had difficulty in developing senior local talent. It’s not a question of salary, that’s for sure. Nor is it necessarily a failure of “intent to groom.” The biggest challenge is, simply put, advertising is not fundamentally respected as a career path for many locals. They prefer careers that are more concrete, with a clearer “return on investment.” An adman’s key strength is the ability to articulate the abstract and lead clients to embrace what can’t be proven. We have to be conceptual warriors and this doesn’t appeal to many Chinese who tend to take refuge in the concrete. There are too many talented 35-year-olds who abandon the industry for a more “respectable” career. The ones who stick with it, the ones who have the capacity to inspire, are worth their weight in gold and we do everything possible to retain and promote them. JWT China has state-owned and private sector clients. How would you describe working with the state-owned organizations? All local companies have certain things in common. They are hierarchical and the big boss wields absolute control. So maintaining close relationships with the CEO, or founder, is absolutely critical. Establishing trust, rooted in a combination of value-added and empathy, is absolutely critical. That said, there are differences. Large state-owned enterprises tend to be much more Byzantine in terms of decision making, with one eye focused on the market and the other on political imperatives. Smaller local (private) enterprises are more entrepreneurial, more apt to take risks and decide things relatively quickly. They also tend to be more receptive to “unsafe” creative. The “joys” of working with local companies, despite the operational and relationship management challenges, is that they are genuinely passionate about their brands. Their ambitions are huge. They also have a natural appreciation of the ins and outs of both the Chinese market and the Chinese consumer, leading bolder experimentation, assuming the stars are aligned in terms of clear objectives and open communication. From an ad agency’s perspective, it’s very much high-risk, high-return. I’m as proud of the work we do for our local clients such as Anta or COFCO (China’s largest food conglomerate) as I am from some of our largest multinational companies such as Ford or Nokia or Microsoft. Supposedly Chinese marketing managers find it very difficult to adopt new creative ideas. If you could say five things to these people what they be? The pitch I always give to local business leaders is simple: robust brand equity — i.e., active consumer loyalty for a brand — leads to premium prices and a high P/E ratio. Beloved brands are, to state the obvious, emotional propositions, ones that fuse functional and emotional appeal. Most need convincing that when function and emotion are “aligned,” they are mutually-reinforcing, and there is no need to “choose” between tactical and thematic, between nuts and bolts and evocative messages. But they need a reorientation to help them grasp how “brand ideas” are constructed and I think JWT is quite good at translating global brand building truths into a “paradigm” or “framework” that leads to long-term propositions and justifies price premiums — of both their brands and JWT’s services! So, to answer your question, we must always reinforce the link between business imperatives and creativity. We can never take it for granted that this tenet is implicit. I can’t think of a “five things” to say to them, other than what I’ve mentioned. But the analytical robustness of any recommendation has to be empirically bullet proof. Once they endorse the logical thought flow, from underlying business problem to creative solution, minds open, and decision makers are able to put themselves more easily in consumers’ shoes, folks who, it goes without saying, do appreciate creativity. JWT places a lot of importance on local knowledge. With China being such a vast and diverse place with various tierings, and customs and values of people differing from province to province, how does one advertise to the Chinese population? Is there a one size fits all? Of course, one size doesn’t fit all. But there are “unifying themes” and “variations” on these themes. It’s like a Bach Fugue; there is a primary melody with interpretations of that to address target consumer and geographic considerations. Some roll their eyes when I harp on about a Chinese “worldview” that is fundamentally different from Westerners’ basic motivations. But smirks be damned. In order to touch hearts, brands need to be brought into alignment with this worldview. After 13 years here, I am fundamentally convinced that there is a unifying “Confucian” conflict — between self-protection and status projection — that brands have a fundamental role in resolving. Unlike practically any other country (Korea and Vietnam come closest), China is both boldly ambitious (ladders are meant to be climbed and meritocracy is a cherished value) and regimented, with hierarchical and procedural booby traps for anyone who hasn’t mastered the “system.” This tension between upward mobility and fear-based conformism shows up everywhere, in every business meetings, in every struggle with a mother-in-law, in every new generation release on the internet. Brands that help consumers simultaneously stand out and fit in have the greatest appeal. Diamonds, for example, are popular because their sparkle is conspicuous but, at the same time, elegant and understated. The same goes for Mont Blanc’s six-point logo. Rejoice shampoo’s proposition fuses confidence and softness. All communications needs to position products as a “means to an end,” with clear return on investment. And all products must dramatize “public consumption” in order to justify a price premium. That said, this “unifying theme” needs to be interpreted for different socioeconomic tiers. In lower-tier markets, for example, definitions of success are more short-term, more inextricably linked to home and hearth. We also tend to emphasis that protection side of the equation because non-middle class consumers — people who have benefited less from waves of economic reform — are less convinced that the world is safe. Likewise, brands are less familiar is Tiers 3-5 cities so communications has to be simpler and more direct and the role of in-store experience and reassurance is even more fundamental than in primary markets. And young consumers are definitely more into self-expression — though this is about ego affirmation, not Western individualism, a point many of my industry colleagues disagree with me on — than older age cohorts. So, yes, age and income are “variables” that very much need to be considered and, no, one size does not fit all. But you don’t need to completely reinvent the wheel every time you develop a strategy for a different market target. I also believe the claim “China is many countries” is often (but not always) a canard, a red herring. China is unified by timeless cultural imperatives. We frequently confuse geographic discrepancy with socio-economic and age differences, two fundamental confounding variables. I know you get asked this all the time but how do brands build a name across China? Western firms seem to roll-in to China with products, like the Apple iPhone, but really only consumers living tier 1 cities such as Beijing and Shanghai can afford them. Do big brands like Apple need to create an almost ‘value’ range to reach the lower-tier consumers of China? Are the lower tier consumers even on Western brand agendas? There is a middle class in every city. Once you realize that individuals earning 20,000 RMB per month in both Shanghai and Wuhan have more in common with each other than do denizens of specific cities in at different socio-economic strata, things become simpler. Apple is a middle class hit… everywhere. Inland consumers who can afford, say, a Ford Focus are almost as sophisticated in terms of buying an auto as their coastal cousins, with the caveat that care must be taken to keep messages simpler for first-time, usually lower-tier, buyers. That said, brand tiering is a fundamental challenge for brands as the expand geographically. Practically all of Procter & Gambles products have cheaper variants and they have pursued this strategy with a relative degree of success. In the Apple era, Nokia’s non-smart phone range at the rural fringe is a powerful weapon to win “the next billion” mobile phone buyers. Chinese revere scale and “big brands” — i.e., ones that extend across price tiers — reassure; to boot, any brand that does not boast both margin and scale will have a difficult time taming unwieldy distribution channels. However, we need to keep in mind that the “cheaper” products are targeted at less affluent consumers. Extreme care must be taken to avoid equity adulteration of the premium variants as the brand is extended downward. This is a tricky minuet and some of the best marketers have fallen by upsetting a delicate price-value equation. As a rule, expensive brands should be used to build image and tactical promotion of inexpensive versions should take place closer to the point of purchase. What are the key differences and similarities between Chinese and Western consumers? There are two key differences. First, all benefits in China are externalized; Chinese egos are huge — I always say every Chinese has a dragon in his or her heart — and they demand societal acknowledge for their contributions to and success within society. They are not individualistic in a Jeffersonian sense as are Westerners, who respond, in many cases, to “internalized” benefits. Luxury goods, for example, are a tool for career advancement in China. In the West, they are often appreciated for their own intrinsic quality. In shower gel, the leading Western brands have “sensual indulgence” as a core proposition. In the PRC, the key benefit is “an energizing shower experience that helps me start the day with a kick.” (Sometimes, this difference can be quite subtle. Europeans go to spas to relax. Chinese go to recharge batteries.) Second, there is absolutely, positively no cynicism towards brands in China. As said above, they are vital tools of advancement. Furthermore, in a constricted mass media environment and a society with a narrow definition of success, brands are the most powerful badges of identity. Brand communications is, by far, the freest form of expression and, for that reason, beloved. Of course, the Chinese are suspicious shoppers — they don’t take quality for granted to reassurance in terms of both quality and impact on image is critical — but there isn’t cynicism. We have not entered a post-modern communications era here, and I doubt we will, given fundamental role brands play in consumers’ identities. It’s worth noting that the digital world differs here too. “Emotional release” is a critical driver — there are already 150 million micro-bloggers! — and this urge is fueled by on-line anonymity. For Facebook to succeed in China, it would have to scrap its “real name” policy. Despite the explosion of lifestyle alternatives and individualism as an aspiration, the Chinese are constricted when it comes to self-expression. In this respect, the internet is a blank canvas on which to paint dreams. Of course, e-commerce is exploding in the PRC, just like anywhere in the world. But, again, “transactional safety” must be reinforced and most cash is usually exchanged only after consumers have been given a chance to kick the tires of a product. Advertising is about persuasion, I guess this might be a question of Chinese culture, but if the Government said all its people ‘should,’ not must, sign-up to a ‘China Mobile’ tariff do you think they would? Interesting question. Let’s put it this way — it would certainly help. The Communist Party is still the quintessence of authority and its “endorsement” would reassure many safety-seeking buyers. To boot, the backing of the government would translate into immeasurable distribution/channel clout. On a lighter note, people may not realize this but you were actually lucky enough to be an Olympic torch bearer at the Beijing Olympics, how did the opportunity come about and what was it like? I loved being a Torch Bearer. I was invited by a client, Lenovo, that was also an official sponsor of the event. Despite all the propagandist stage management, the moment my foot hit the pavement — we all got dispatched from buses at our designated running points — the crowd went wild. Not for me, of course, but for the torch and everything it represented about China’s ascension to superpower status. Adding more emotion to the moment was the Sichuan earthquake, from which the nation was still recovering, and the media furor over the Tibetan protests. People were afraid the Olympics would, in the yes of the world, “fail.” So the Torch relay, at a historic juncture, morphed into a national declaration of perseverance. It was moving, even inspiring. This interview was originally published on ChinaSMACK, a leading website on China’s media, advertising and popular culture.

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CYBRA Corporation Hires Michael J. Shabet, a Former Avery Dennison Global Sales Manager, as Vice President, Sales and Marketing

June 1, 2011

RFID Expert Sales Professional Brings Vast Industry Knowledge and Experience to Software Developer of Bar Code and RFID Solutions

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