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CIT Taps Ousted Merrill Lynch Chief John Thain to Run 102-Year-Old Lender

February 7, 2010

By Christine Harper and Linda Shen Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) — John Thain , the ousted chief of Merrill Lynch & Co., was named to lead CIT Group Inc. , the commercial lender that emerged from bankruptcy in December, after a nearly four-month search for a replacement. Thain, 54, becomes chairman and chief executive officer immediately, New York-based CIT said today in a statement. The century-old lender had been led by Jeffrey Peek , another former Merrill Lynch executive, from July 2004 until Jan. 15, when Peek stepped down and board member Peter Tobin was named interim CEO. The job restores Thain to the top of a public company more than a year after he was pushed out by Kenneth D. Lewis , then CEO of Bank of America Corp. , which agreed to buy Merrill during the 2008 financial crisis. Thain inherits a company that was crippled by Peek’s foray into subprime lending before the bankruptcy. CIT still operates under constraints tied to a federal bailout in 2008 and is shut out from the commercial paper market, its traditional source of funding. “This is a company that’s over 100 years old and its core business is lending to small- and medium-sized companies,” Thain said today in an interview. “If we’re going to get the U.S. economy to continue to grow, if we’re going to create jobs, then we need to have this kind of a company do well.” Before joining Merrill Lynch in December 2007, Thain ran NYSE Euronext , the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange, and spent about 24 years at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. , the most profitable securities firm in Wall Street history. CIT provides business loans to more than 3,000 companies and is the third-largest railcar-leasing and aircraft-financing firm in the U.S., according to its Web site. With 4,480 employees at the end of September, CIT is a fraction of the size of Merrill Lynch, which had more than 64,000 when Thain arrived. Compensation At CIT Group, Thain’s pay is subject to compensation restrictions imposed on management of companies that have received funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. He will receive $500,000 in salary and $5.5 million in shares, of which $2.5 million is restricted for one year and $3 million is locked up for three years, according to a person familiar with the matter. The person declined to speak publicly because the information hasn’t yet been made public. Thain will also be eligible for a $1.5 million “discretionary” payment in restricted shares, contingent on his performance, that will vest after two years and can’t be sold for three years, the person said. CIT can claw back the $1.5 million payment under certain conditions, the person said. Pay at Merrill Merrill Lynch agreed to pay Thain $44 million in bonus, salary and stock when he took over that firm, which he arranged to sell less than a year later to Bank of America. Lloyd Blankfein , chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs, was awarded $9.6 million in restricted stock and salary for his performance in 2009, while Jamie Dimon , chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co. , got about $17 million in restricted stock and options. Thain said CIT could exit TARP within the next few months by extinguishing “contingent value rights” that the government received during the bankruptcy. For CIT, Thain must find lower-cost sources of funding, lift restrictions on its banking unit and win over regulators wary after the bankruptcy filing wiped away a $2.3 billion Treasury Department stake. CIT, unable to win a second round of government assistance, was forced into bankruptcy after posting losses from subprime and student lending for 10 consecutive quarters totaling more than $6 billion. Salt Lake City The company has been trying to move its small-business lending, trade finance and U.S. vendor finance operations to CIT’s Salt Lake City-based banking unit so it can use deposits as a source of cheaper funding for loans. Thain said in the interview that he wants to spend the first couple of months reviewing CIT’s businesses to figure out how they can be funded most effectively. Some units can fit into CIT’s Utah-based bank if Thain can get the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to lift a “cease and desist order” it has placed on that business, he said. He said it’s too early to speculate about whether the other businesses, which have traditionally relied on funding from the capital markets, should be sold. Asked if the entire company might be sold, Thain replied that he wouldn’t rule it out. The current plan is to run CIT as an independent entity, he said. “His experience at Goldman, his experience, particularly at the New York Stock Exchange, which was a restructuring of sorts, really helped us hold him in good stead in terms of what he has to accomplish at CIT,” Tobin said today in an interview. CIT Reorganized CIT’s bankruptcy reorganization cleared away $10.5 billion in debt and pushed back bond maturities for three years. The firm recruited seven new independent directors and named Tobin as interim CEO after Peek’s exit. Egon Zehnder International was hired to find a replacement. The company will rely on Thain to “continue CIT’s transition to a more streamlined commercial lender,” CIT said. This month, Chief Operating Officer Alexander Mason became the fourth executive to announce a departure, saying he would step down Feb. 26. Earlier, CIT Chief Financial Officer Joseph Leone said he would retire in April, and Chief Risk Officer Nancy Foster stepped down Dec. 31. Thain said naming new senior managers will be a priority. Nelson Chai , who was Thain’s CFO at Merrill Lynch and NYSE Euronext, will probably be a candidate for the CFO position at CIT Group, Thain said. “John is a well-respected financial services executive and proven leader who is uniquely qualified to lead CIT at this critical stage,” CIT lead director John Ryan said in a statement today. “CIT and its customers will benefit enormously from his breadth of experience, industry acumen and deep knowledge of the financial services sector.” Bonuses, Losses Thain’s departure from Merrill Lynch after Bank of America’s takeover was clouded by criticism about Merrill’s plan to pay $3.6 billion in bonuses even as the firm’s losses swelled to $27.6 billion. Thain has said Bank of America was aware of the bonuses and had been kept informed about the losses. Last week, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo filed a civil fraud case against Bank of America, former CEO Lewis and the former Chief Financial Officer Joe Price . The case alleges that they deceived investors and taxpayers in 2008 by not disclosing losses at Merrill Lynch before shareholders voted on the firm’s pending takeover, and used those losses to extract more bailout funds from U.S. regulators. Bank of America, based in Charlotte, North Carolina, has called the charges “totally without merit” and lawyers for Lewis and Price have denied wrongdoing. The lawsuit “stands on its own and I’m glad that the truth has come out,” Thain said. “I’m focused on CIT and I’m focused on moving forward — that is history to me.” One lesson of his experience at Merrill Lynch will stick with him. Thain’s departure coincided with revelations that he’d spent $1.2 million to redecorate his office at the money-losing company when he joined in 2007. He later said the renovation was a mistake and reimbursed the firm. At CIT, “I think I’ll keep my office exactly the way it is,” he said. To contact the reporters on this story: Christine Harper in New York at charper@bloomberg.net ; Linda Shen in New York at lshen21@bloomberg.net .

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Air Products Revives $7 Billion Airgas Bid With Threat to Lobby Investors

February 5, 2010

By Andrew Noel Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — Air Products and Chemicals Inc. said it is prepared to take its latest $7 billion bid for Airgas straight to shareholders after its rival spurned two prior attempts to create the largest U.S. industrial gas company. The $60-a-share bid, 38 percent higher than Airgas’s closing price yesterday, followed two prior approaches that were rejected by Airgas management, Allentown, Pennsylvania-based Air Products said in a statement today. Air Products Chief Executive Officer John McGlade said he’s willing to take all necessary steps to acquire Airgas after requests for friendly talks failed. A combination would create a company with about $13 billion in sales, replacing current U.S. market leader Praxair Inc. and narrowing the gap on Air Liquide SA of France and Germany’s Linde AG. “It’s a bold and interesting move,” John Racquet, managing director of industrial-gas advisory firm Spiritus Consulting, said in a phone interview. “Air Products will become an integrated gas company and that’s long overdue.” Airgas would bring a U.S. customer base for packaged and compressed gas for clients such as hospitals. Air Products had exited that market after failing to gain the critical mass needed to match the profitability of larger rivals, Racquet said. Industrial gas companies separate air into components which are sold to steel, electronics or health-care clients. Air Products shares trading in Germany declined to the equivalent of $72.3 as of 9:45 a.m. local time. They closed at $73.69 in the U.S. yesterday. Airgas climbed to the equivalent of $56 in Germany, after closing at $43.53 locally yesterday. Hostility “While we would strongly prefer to proceed through friendly negotiations, you should not doubt our resolve to take the necessary actions to complete this transaction,” McGlade said in a letter to his counterpart at Airgas, Peter McCausland . “Your continuing refusal to engage with us will serve only to further delay your shareholders’ ability to receive a substantial all-cash premium.” Airgas , which generated $4.35 billion in sales in its last fiscal year, lowered its annual earnings forecast on Jan. 28, after a dip in sales at its rental-welder business as construction demand slowed. The stock fell 9.8 percent in U.S. trading that day. Combining the two companies would generate “substantial” savings of $250 million, Air Products said in the statement. The bid by Air Products includes about $5.1 billion of equity and $1.9 billion of assumed debt. Air Products, which is being advised by JPMorgan Chase & Co., said it’s prepared to make disposals to ease regulatory concern. JPMorgan has also committed funding to the transaction. Airgas is the largest U.S. distributor of industrial, medical, and specialty gases and the largest producer in the country of nitrous oxide and dry ice, according to the company’s Web site. Founded in 1982 and built through more than 400 acquisitions, Airgas employs more than 14,000 people. For Related News and Information: Top Stories:TOP Link to Statement:NSN KXCTRM3T6SQP Company News:ARG US CN Company News:APD US CN

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Bank Bonuses Over $400,000 Would Face One-Time 50% Levy in Senators’ Bill

February 5, 2010

By Ian Katz Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — Senate Democrats Barbara Boxer and James Webb proposed a 50 percent tax on bonuses of more than $400,000 at financial firms including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. that received U.S. bailout money. Boxer of California and Webb of Virginia introduced legislation to put a one-time levy on the bonuses of employees at banks that took at least $5 billion from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, the senators said yesterday at a Washington news conference. The bill would affect 13 firms and could raise $10 billion to help cut the federal deficit, Boxer said. “It’s outrageous that many of these companies are doling out millions of dollars in bonuses while the rest of America feels the pain of reckless decisions,” said Boxer, who is seeking re-election in November. American International Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. , JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley are among the companies that would be affected, Boxer said. Lawmakers are taking aim at financial firms in response to public anger over Wall Street’s role in the global financial crisis. President Barack Obama said last month he wants to tax as many as 50 financial firms with assets of more than $50 billion to recoup U.S. bailout money. The administration hasn’t backed levies on individual bonuses and the Senate has been reluctant to expand government’s role in compensation. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. set aside $39.9 billion for pay in 2009, below the 2007 record of $44.7 billion. The total was less than the $46.1 billion five analysts expected in January and almost $10 billion less than what some analysts estimated in October. For Related News and Information: For more on bonuses: NI BONUSES Government relief programs: GGRP Stories on pay: NI PAY BN More on financial regulation: TNI FIN MKTREG On banks and government: TNI BNK GOV

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Air Products Threatens to Go Hostile on $7 Billion Offer to Acquire Airgas

February 5, 2010

By Andrew Noel Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — Air Products and Chemicals Inc. said it is prepared to take its latest $7 billion bid for Airgas straight to shareholders after its rival spurned two prior attempts to create the largest U.S. industrial gas company. The $60-a-share bid, 38 percent higher than Airgas’s closing price yesterday, followed two prior approaches that were rejected by Airgas management, Allentown, Pennsylvania-based Air Products said in a statement today. Air Products Chief Executive Officer John McGlade said he’s willing to take all necessary steps to acquire Airgas after requests for friendly talks failed. A combination would create a company with about $13 billion in sales, replacing current U.S. market leader Praxair Inc. and narrowing the gap on Air Liquide SA of France and Germany’s Linde AG. “It’s a bold and interesting move,” John Racquet, managing director of industrial-gas advisory firm Spiritus Consulting, said in a phone interview. “Air Products will become an integrated gas company and that’s long overdue.” Airgas would bring a U.S. customer base for packaged and compressed gas for clients such as hospitals. Air Products had exited that market after failing to gain the critical mass needed to match the profitability of larger rivals, Racquet said. Industrial gas companies separate air into components which are sold to steel, electronics or health-care clients. Air Products shares trading in Germany declined to the equivalent of $72.3 as of 9:45 a.m. local time. They closed at $73.69 in the U.S. yesterday. Airgas climbed to the equivalent of $56 in Germany, after closing at $43.53 locally yesterday. Hostility “While we would strongly prefer to proceed through friendly negotiations, you should not doubt our resolve to take the necessary actions to complete this transaction,” McGlade said in a letter to his counterpart at Airgas, Peter McCausland . “Your continuing refusal to engage with us will serve only to further delay your shareholders’ ability to receive a substantial all-cash premium.” Airgas , which generated $4.35 billion in sales in its last fiscal year, lowered its annual earnings forecast on Jan. 28, after a dip in sales at its rental-welder business as construction demand slowed. The stock fell 9.8 percent in U.S. trading that day. Combining the two companies would generate “substantial” savings of $250 million, Air Products said in the statement. The bid by Air Products includes about $5.1 billion of equity and $1.9 billion of assumed debt. Air Products, which is being advised by JPMorgan Chase & Co., said it’s prepared to make disposals to ease regulatory concern. JPMorgan has also committed funding to the transaction. Airgas is the largest U.S. distributor of industrial, medical, and specialty gases and the largest producer in the country of nitrous oxide and dry ice, according to the company’s Web site. Founded in 1982 and built through more than 400 acquisitions, Airgas employs more than 14,000 people. For Related News and Information: Top Stories:TOP Link to Statement:NSN KXCTRM3T6SQP Company News:ARG US CN Company News:APD US CN

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John Oechsle, Former Kellogg’s and Johnson & Johnson Executive, Joins aWhere, Inc. Board of Directors

February 4, 2010

GOLDEN, CO–(Marketwire – February 4, 2010) – aWhere, Inc., data and technology provider for CPG category management, today announced that CPG and Information Technology veteran, John Oechsle, has been named to aWhere’s Board of Directors.

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Sony May Raise Full-Year Earnings Forecast After Holiday Shoppers Return

February 3, 2010

By Mariko Yasu and Maki Shiraki Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) — Sony Corp. may raise its full-year earnings forecast today after reducing costs and consumer demand for televisions and game consoles started to recover during the holiday shopping season. The maker of Bravia televisions and Cyber-shot cameras will probably report a net loss of 55 billion yen ($605 million) in the year ending March 31, according to the median of nine analyst estimates this year compiled by Bloomberg. That’s 42 percent less than Sony’s Oct. 30 projection for a 95 billion yen shortfall. “There’s a strong likelihood the company will raise its earnings forecasts based on robust business in the third quarter,” Yuji Fujimori , a Tokyo-based analyst at Barclays Capital, said yesterday by telephone. “Year-end sales were good” and Sony also improved its efforts to cut costs and reduce inventory, he said. Tokyo-based Sony, forecasting its first back-to-back annual losses since its listing in 1958, attracted holiday shoppers after cutting the price of its flagship game console, PlayStation 3, by 25 percent in August. Chief Executive Officer Howard Stringer has drawn closer to his target of cutting 330 billion yen in costs by eliminating 20,000 jobs . The full-year operating loss, or sales minus the cost of goods sold and administrative expenses, may be 37 billion yen, according the median of 10 analyst estimates since early January compiled by Bloomberg. That’s 38 percent smaller than Sony’s 60 billion yen projection. The Japanese company is set to announce third-quarter results at 3 p.m. in Tokyo today. Record U.S. Sales In December, Sony and Nintendo Co. led the U.S. video-game market to monthly record sales of $5.53 billion, researcher NPD Group Inc. said last month. The two companies lowered prices of their flagship players, helping fuel demand in what was the best holiday season yet for the consoles. Sony fell 1 percent to 3,115 yen as of 9:13 a.m. in Tokyo yesterday, while Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 0.2 percent. The stock , which gained 39 percent in 2009, has risen 17 percent this year. “Sales in the October-December quarter seem better than Sony’s conservative assumptions,” said Nobuo Kurahashi , an analyst at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. in Tokyo. “Both Sony’s estimates for operating profit and net profit could be raised.” Sony gained the most in almost two months in Tokyo trading on Jan. 28 after the Nikkei newspaper reported the company may have returned to operating profit in the quarter ended Dec. 31. Sony may report a group operating income of about 100 billion yen after its game business posted a quarterly profit, Nikkei said, without saying how it got the information. Second Forecast Revision The company in October reduced its 12-month net loss forecast by 21 percent and cut its projection for operating loss for the year by 45 percent to 60 billion yen. The company at the time maintained its prediction for a 5.6 percent decline in annual sales to 7.3 trillion yen. The analysts’ estimate is for revenue of 7.16 trillion yen. Samusung Electronics Co. , the world’s largest TV maker, last week reported net income of 3.05 trillion won ($2.7 billion) for the three months ended Dec. 31, swinging from a loss of 22 billion won a year earlier, as demand for TVs rose. Improving consumer confidence is spurring sales of liquid- crystal-display TVs . Global shipments of LCD TVs will rise 22 percent to 171 million units in 2010, Austin, Texas-based research firm DisplaySearch said Dec. 29. Sharp Corp., Japan’s largest maker of LCD panels, turned to profit in the third quarter helped by lower expenses including labor costs. Net income was 9.1 billion yen in the three months ended Dec. 31, compared with a loss of 65.8 billion yen a year earlier, the Osaka-based company said yesterday. To contact the reporter on this story: Mariko Yasu in Tokyo at myasu@bloomberg.net .

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Janis Bowdler: Consumer Empowerment 101: Financial Guidance Gives Families a More Stable Future

February 3, 2010

It sounds simple–a more informed consumer is likely to make better decisions at the time of purchase. While many agree that financial literacy may build awareness, it is unlikely by itself to help someone better navigate the fine print. Often, the information misses the key questions confronting a consumer at the time of a big financial decision. A pamphlet about balancing the checkbook, for example, does not equip a homebuyer with the know-how to avoid scams or identify loopholes in his contract. Financial planning, on the other hand, caters to a family’s unique personal finance goals. Those with the means to do so wisely seek out professional advice on how to stretch their dollar and secure their retirement. The same approach has been shown to work for low- and moderate-income families. However, planners are out of reach for many average Americans. In some communities, nonprofit financial counselors are stepping up to help their neighbors open bank accounts, make sound homebuying decisions, or identify an affordable credit card. Especially in today’s economic climate, families need relevant, real-time advice from professionals who offer objective guidance on a range of financial issues. Thanks to Representative Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) –who sponsored the “Financial Counseling Language” amendment to the “Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2009″–the nation is one step closer to increasing the availability of financial counseling through local nonprofits without a big hit to the budget. These efforts contribute to the promotion of highly effective services, such as those offered by The Resurrection Project (TRP) in Chicago, Illinois. TRP’s free one-on-one financial counseling program helps families establish short- and long-term goals. They have had great success with more than 100 participants, many of whom did not have a credit score and earn an average wage of $10.40 an hour. Since entering the program, approximately 60% of them have opened bank accounts, 30% have lowered debt, and 16% have begun a credit history for the first time. To learn more about the benefits of one-on-one financial counseling, please join NCLR for a national call this Thursday, February 4 at 2:00 p.m. EST.

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Janis Bowdler: Consumer Empowerment 101: Financial Guidance Gives Families a More Stable Future

February 3, 2010

It sounds simple–a more informed consumer is likely to make better decisions at the time of purchase. While many agree that financial literacy may build awareness, it is unlikely by itself to help someone better navigate the fine print. Often, the information misses the key questions confronting a consumer at the time of a big financial decision. A pamphlet about balancing the checkbook, for example, does not equip a homebuyer with the know-how to avoid scams or identify loopholes in his contract. Financial planning, on the other hand, caters to a family’s unique personal finance goals. Those with the means to do so wisely seek out professional advice on how to stretch their dollar and secure their retirement. The same approach has been shown to work for low- and moderate-income families. However, planners are out of reach for many average Americans. In some communities, nonprofit financial counselors are stepping up to help their neighbors open bank accounts, make sound homebuying decisions, or identify an affordable credit card. Especially in today’s economic climate, families need relevant, real-time advice from professionals who offer objective guidance on a range of financial issues. Thanks to Representative Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) –who sponsored the “Financial Counseling Language” amendment to the “Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2009″–the nation is one step closer to increasing the availability of financial counseling through local nonprofits without a big hit to the budget. These efforts contribute to the promotion of highly effective services, such as those offered by The Resurrection Project (TRP) in Chicago, Illinois. TRP’s free one-on-one financial counseling program helps families establish short- and long-term goals. They have had great success with more than 100 participants, many of whom did not have a credit score and earn an average wage of $10.40 an hour. Since entering the program, approximately 60% of them have opened bank accounts, 30% have lowered debt, and 16% have begun a credit history for the first time. To learn more about the benefits of one-on-one financial counseling, please join NCLR for a national call this Thursday, February 4 at 2:00 p.m. EST.

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Sudden Infant Death Tied to Brain Chemical Alert for Breathing When Asleep

February 2, 2010

By Nicole Ostrow Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) — The sudden death of sleeping infants may be linked to lower levels of the brain chemical serotonin, which plays a part in regulating breathing and heart rate during slumber, a study found. Autopsies showed babies who died of sudden infant death syndrome, or SIDS , had serotonin levels that were 26 percent lower than those who died from other known causes, researchers reported today in the Journal of the American Medical Association . The researchers said low serotonin levels may impair a baby’s response to the risk from breathing in exhaled carbon dioxide when they sleep in a face-down position. Sudden infant death syndrome is the leading cause of death in the U.S. in babies between the ages of one month and a year, according to researchers. Today’s findings may help doctors identify infants who might have an increased risk for SIDS and enable scientists to develop treatments to correct the deficiency in serotonin, the researchers said. SIDS “should not be called a mystery any more. It’s a disease process that we can study,” said researcher Hannah Kinney , a neuropathologist at Children’s Hospital Boston and a professor of pathology at Harvard Medical School, in a telephone interview today. “SIDS, at least in the majority of cases, is an intrinsic problem of the brainstem.” Unexplained Sudden infant death syndrome is a fatality that remains unexplained after a complete autopsy and death scene investigation, the authors wrote. Typically the baby is found dead after sleeping. The number of infants dying from SIDS has fallen 50 percent since the early 1990s, when public health officials launched the “Back to Sleep” program that encouraged parents to put their infants to sleep on their backs, according to the National Institutes of Health. Still, in the past decade, the number of babies who died from SIDS has reached a plateau, the authors wrote. They cited a U.S. SIDS rate of 0.54 per 1,000 live births. In today’s study, researchers measured levels of serotonin and an enzyme that helps make serotonin called tryptophan hydroxylase in the brains of 35 infants who died from SIDS. They compared that with five babies who died from identifiable causes and five who died in the hospital of insufficient oxygen supply. They found that babies who died from SIDS had lower serotonin levels in their brainstems than the five infants who died from known causes. They also found that tryptophan hydroxylase levels were 22 percent lower in those who died from SIDS, the study showed. Not Chronic Comparing those who died from SIDS with those who died while in the hospital showed that SIDS isn’t caused by a chronic illness or chronic insufficient oxygen, Kinney said. Most of the babies who died from SIDS also had one or more “external” risk factors for the syndrome, sleeping on their stomach or side, sharing a bed or having a trivial illness before death, the authors wrote. “The baby looks normal during the day; there’s nothing that would tell you that baby is going to die of SIDS that night,” said Kinney in a statement. “There’s something about sleep that unmasks the defect, which we believe is in serotonin circuits.” Low levels of serotonin may hamper the function of the circuits in the brain that regulate breathing, heart rate, temperature and blood pressure during sleep. That may put a baby at risk for dying from rebreathing exhaled carbon dioxide while sleeping on their stomachs or overheating from too many clothes. Getting Fresh Air Serotonin pathways in the brain normally cause a baby who is breathing carbon dioxide to stir and turn its head, allowing the infant to get fresh air. A baby with low serotonin levels may not be aroused to move, the researchers said. Future studies may determine the causes of these low serotonin levels, Kinney said. Parents may still help prevent SIDS by not drinking alcohol or smoking during pregnancy, and by putting babies to sleep on their backs in cribs until they’re one year old, Kinney said. It also helps to place them on firm mattresses and without toys, soft pillows or excessive blankets and clothing. Today’s study was funded in part by the First Candle/SIDS Alliance, the CJ Foundation for SIDS and the National Institutes of Health. For Related News and Information: To contact the reporter on this story: Nicole Ostrow in New York at nostrow1@bloomberg.net .

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Ann Taylor Call Trading Surged Before Quarterly Sales Forecast Was Boosted

February 2, 2010

By Jeff Kearns Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) — Trading of bullish AnnTaylor Stores Corp. options surged to a 10-week high yesterday before the women’s clothing retailer boosted its fourth-quarter sales forecast today in an unscheduled release. “Either this was a very savvy investor or the information was leaked,” said Frederic Ruffy , the senior options strategist at WhatsTrading.com , a New York-based provider of options market analysis. “The call buying was just a couple of hours before the close yesterday.” Almost all of yesterday’s trading of 5,766 options giving the right to buy the stock was concentrated in the March $15 calls, which closed at 45 cents yesterday. They more than tripled to $1.65 today as the shares jumped the most in nine months, adding 19 percent to $15.88 at 3:42 p.m. in New York. Catherine Fisher , a spokeswoman for AnnTaylor in New York, did not respond immediately to voicemails seeking comment. Most of yesterday’s trading came as traders initiated new positions. The open interest, or number of outstanding contracts, rose 255 percent to 6,367 today. Ann Taylor said fourth-quarter sales were about $470 million, compared with the average analyst estimate of $454.6 million, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The company is scheduled to release fourth-quarter results on March 12. To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Kearns in New York at jkearns3@bloomberg.net .

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Erik Rothenberg: Why GDP Is No Measure of Quality; and What We Can Do About it

February 2, 2010

Imagine a world in which all people, institutions, governments and corporations engaged in enlightened, rational behavior that served all life on earth. Imagine if the reward system of our global economy that provided a true economic incentive for us all to thrive collectively toward an ideal vision of life on earth. This is not a dream, just a shift in perspective; it all begins with paying attention to the right things. What we measure strongly influences what we do. By measuring the right things, we get right outcomes and vice versa. First, we need to conceive what kind of ideal world we would like to live in, then look at our social, economic, environmental, legal, political and technological activities, determine which aspects of those must be measured and improved, and work together to do it — forever. Let’s look at our current way of measuring and improving things, which fail when it comes to quality of life. Take America’s Gross Domestic Product, or GDP. Our eyes glaze over reading about this stuff in the news, but this and other so-called indicators of our country’s economic health are meaningless at best and misleading and dangerous at worst. For example, last week, the Wall Street Journal announced that GDP growth rose to a 6-year high while wages and benefits hit a 1-year low, all while inflation erodes those lower wages. GDP is simply the total aggregate of all our economic activity; if output is up, the country must be economically healthier, right? But what if that output is harmful to people and the environment? If we cut down a forest to make junk mail or remove a mountaintop to burn coal, GDP measures all that but ignores the economic, not to mention social and environmental effects of the resulting mudslides, soil erosion, water table poisoning, air pollution or global warming. Measuring our country’s economic health this way is like adding together all your income and expenses in your checkbook – instead of subtracting your expenses from your income – to get a measure of your personal economic health. Besides, GDP also doesn’t measure the benefits obtained by innovation and efficiency improvements; if those cause us to produce and consume less, then GDP goes down, highlighting its meaninglessness as a useful thing to strive for. This issue has been on the table for over 40 years at least by now. In 1968, Robert F. Kennedy spoke about it eloquently here: Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz discusses it in detail here: Some, including Stiglitz, have floated the progressive idea of a “green GDP”, one that takes into account the detrimental effects of growth -those that can be measured in dollars and cents -as well as the positive ones, and subtracts them to get a more meaningful number. This is a great start. But it goes beyond that; as Kennedy points out, those things that bring quality to our lives — happiness, intelligence, compassion, wisdom, safety, learning and beauty — can be difficult to quantify in economic terms. And it gets more complicated; who determines what is important enough to measure and how it gets measured? And isn’t the information age constantly shifting our assumptions, their meaning and the numbers we need to understand our world? How do you and I get a voice in that conversation? And finally, how do we make this enormous complexity simple enough for everyone to understand — so we can work together to support a new world? As a social entrepreneur, I work on the URSULA Project , seeking to answer these questions. URSULA stands for Unified Rating System, Universal Lifecycle Assessment, and is a way of scoring and rating everything against a standard that serves all life on earth. It is an open and transparent online global system that leverages crowd-sourced lifecycle data, pairs it with a fair voting mechanism that respects and allows input on people’s values, and creates a universal standard. This standard enables single, simple numbers that measure how well something serves or does not serve all life. Imagine if all it took to create our ideal world was fundamentally a shift in perspective. By measuring and improving against a standard that serves all aspects of life, and that we all get a voice in setting, we get a comprehensive perspective of our existing reality and a yardstick on how to improve it so that our economy, society and environment all thrive. Then, our ideas about GDP, and the market fundamentalism that has spawned them will look a lot like the days when people believed the earth was flat. About us: URSULAproject, a 501(c)3 organization, seeks funding to continue its mission, so is currently duking it out — free market style — in the Pepsi Refresh Everything grant contest, and we could use your vote

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Swiss Banks Find Achilles Heel of Secrecy Is Workers Selling Stolen Data

February 2, 2010

By Warren Giles Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) — Swiss banks are discovering that the biggest threat to client privacy is their own workers. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said yesterday her government may buy stolen data on Swiss bank accounts as French authorities comb information acquired from an employee of HSBC Holdings Plc’s private bank in Geneva. The cases come two years after Germany paid 5 million euros ($7 million) for details filched from LGT Group in neighboring Liechtenstein. “This is a kind of business war against Switzerland in which practices which were completely illegal have become acceptable,” says Daniel Fischer, founder of Zurich-based Fischer & Partner law firm who specializes in banking law and fraud. “It’s a huge danger for Swiss banks.” The willingness of governments to pay for stolen data is fanning tensions with France and Germany as Switzerland seeks to negotiate treaties implementing its commitment to cooperate with international tax probes. The Swiss government said last month it will draft a law barring officials from assisting foreign countries in cases involving theft of client details. Germany’s use of such data would be “counterproductive” in future negotiations, and the German government shouldn’t be handling stolen goods, the Swiss Bankers Association said in a Jan. 30 statement. The association represents more than 300 banks, including UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group AG . Incentive to Steal “What’s new recently is the price paid by states for lists, which makes it more attractive” for employees to steal, Anne-Marie de Weck , managing partner at Geneva-based private bank Lombard Odier, told reporters last month in Bern. In bank security, “the most important factor is human,” she said. An unidentified individual has offered to sell Germany information on about 1,300 holders of Swiss bank accounts for 2.5 million euros, the Financial Times Deutschland reported yesterday, without saying where it got the information. FTD said the data came from HSBC’s private bank in Geneva, while the German newspaper Handelsblatt reported it was drawn primarily from accounts at UBS and may yield 200 million euros in lost taxes. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung today said the information came from Credit Suisse, without providing the source of the report. UBS isn’t aware of such information, spokesman Christoph Meier said when asked about the Handlesblatt report. A spokesman for HSBC in Geneva declined to comment, and Credit Suisse issued a statement saying it had “no information” that the bank was affected. “We should aim to get hold of this data if it’s relevant,” because Germany needs to crack down on tax violators, Merkel told reporters yesterday in Berlin. Liechtenstein Precedent Germany last year prosecuted tax evaders, including former Deutsche Post AG Chief Executive Officer Klaus Zumwinkel , using the information bought from a former computer consultant at LGT, owned by Liechtenstein’s princely family. Zumwinkel received a two-year suspended sentence and was ordered to pay a 1 million- euro penalty after a Germany court ruled that he had “knowingly” evaded taxes. Tax authorities have increasingly been offered secret bank information since the Liechtenstein case, German Finance Ministry spokesman Michael Offer said yesterday. “I have a hard time imagining that we are living in a world where a government, which is supposed to set an example, can take for granted that stolen data will be the basis for action,” Patrick Odier , chairman of the Swiss Bankers Association, said in a Jan. 29 interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “It is a real issue and we have to make sure it doesn’t develop into more cases.” HSBC Agreement The French Finance Ministry said in December that it had data on Swiss bank accounts held by French taxpayers, including names provided by a former HSBC employee. Switzerland suspended treaty negotiations with France in December because of the HSBC case. After talks last week, France agreed to return the original data to Switzerland and not ask for assistance from Swiss authorities based on the stolen information. France will continue to use the data to pursue tax evaders at home. “The agreement won’t change anything for a client of HSBC whose data was stolen,” said Fischer, the Zurich lawyer, who added that details of the accord aren’t clear. “An agreement may, on the face of it, be good for Switzerland but not for Swiss banking clients.” Swiss secrecy laws, which threaten bank employees with as much as five years in jail if they divulge client information, have failed to stop staff from stealing data. ‘Gray Zone’ Switzerland’s argument that foreign governments should abide by established codes of conduct that bar the use of stolen information may also fall short, said Thomas Cottier, a professor of European and international economic law at the University of Bern. “We are entering a gray zone of intelligence and the principles are not as strict as in penal law, where information unlawfully obtained is not admissible,” said Cottier. “The risk is that foreign governments won’t say where they got the information from, leading to less rather than more transparency.” Banking secrecy has been the focus of international attention for the past two years as the U.S., France and Germany target tax evaders to help close widening budget deficits after the worst economic crisis since World War II. Switzerland agreed in March to cooperate with countries investigating tax evasion in order to avoid being placed on a list of uncooperative tax havens. The Swiss government in August said it would give data on as many as 4,450 UBS accounts to the Internal Revenue Service after the country’s biggest bank admitted that it helped clients avoid U.S. taxes. UBS Whistleblower The case hinged on information provided by Bradley Birkenfeld , a former UBS banker who told U.S. authorities how the bank courted wealthy Americans without a license from U.S. regulators and helped them set up accounts to evade taxes. Mirabaud & Cie., one of Geneva’s oldest private banks, says the risk from employees isn’t new. “The human factor is obviously a risk, and we’re always evolving as it’s a continuing concern,” Yves Mirabaud , partner at the 191-year-old bank, said in an interview. “We only put people that we’ve known for many years in the most sensitive positions,” Mirabaud said. “We try to avoid the basics such as leaving people alone in a room for hours where they can have access to sensitive data.” Still, the latest developments are “worrying,” he said. “It’s like Big Brother. Do the state and your neighbor have the right to know everything about you?” To contact the reporter on this story: Warren Giles in Geneva at wgiles@bloomberg.net .

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Wal-Mart-Like Consumer Shares Top S&P 500 With Biggest Dividends Since ’01

February 1, 2010

By Lynn Thomasson, Alexis Xydias and Francesca Cinelli Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) — The highest dividend yields since 2001 are luring investors to consumer companies, convinced their profits will provide a haven from the biggest stock decline in 11 months. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. , one of two Dow Jones Industrial Average shares that rose in 2008, trades at the cheapest level in at least 20 years while offering a record dividend, data compiled by Bloomberg show. David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital Inc. bought a stake in Vodafone Group Plc , the world’s biggest mobile-phone company, after its annual payout rose to twice the average of Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index last quarter. Money managers around the world are buying equities with the highest payouts and fewest links to the economy after the MSCI World Index’s biggest monthly drop since February 2009. While billionaire investor Kenneth Fisher says the market will rebound, Einhorn, Natixis Asset Management’s Dominique Sabassier and City National Bank’s Richard Weiss are acting to head off more losses. “People who believe that the crisis is over are wrong,” said Sabassier, the chief investment officer at Natixis, which oversees the equivalent of $418 billion in Paris. “The dividend is an increasing part of your total return,” he said. “People have tended to see dividends as the cherry on the cake, but I think they are much more than that.” China, Obama The MSCI World Index of equities from 23 developed nations has fallen 7.3 percent since reaching a 15-month high on Jan. 14 after China set higher reserves for lenders and U.S. President Barack Obama said he plans to bar proprietary trading at banks. Raw-material producers, which pay out less than 2 percent in dividends, led the gauge down 2.6 percent last week, capping the longest retreat since July. The iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index Fund of 100 companies slipped 1.3 percent. History shows that buying shares when yields are highest can produce market-beating gains. An index of grocers, tobacco companies and household-product makers jumped 50 percent in the year after their payouts peaked in March 2000, while the S&P 500 lost 12 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Dividends are recovering from the worst year on record in the U.S., where 804 companies reduced payouts by a combined $58 billion, according to data compiled by S&P. Yields to investors may rise 18 percent through 2012, analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. Reducing Payouts The first global recession since World War II prompted Fairfield, Connecticut-based General Electric Co. to pare its payout last year for the first time since 1938, to 10 cents from 31 cents. Dow Chemical Co. lowered its dividend in February 2009 to 15 cents from 42 cents, snapping a string of 389 consecutive quarters since 1912 without a reduction at the Midland, Michigan-based company. Anglo American Plc , the London-based owner of stakes in the world’s biggest platinum producers, suspended payments the same month. Investors who buy so-called defensive stocks such as household-product providers, telephone companies, utilities and drugmakers may risk trailing the market should the economy extend its recovery. Those groups posted the smallest returns during the stock market rally that began in March, averaging gains of 32 percent during the advance that lifted the S&P 500 59 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. They are the cheapest in the index on the basis of earnings. Mobile Phones Einhorn, the 41-year-old hedge-fund manager who bet against Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. four months before its collapse, said he purchased a “significant” stake in Vodafone during the fourth quarter on speculation the shares are cheap, according to a letter to clients dated Jan. 19. The holding is among the six largest for New York-based Greenlight, which has returned an average of 22 percent a year for investors since May 1996. “The portfolio continues to be conservatively postured into 2010 because the market appears to be discounting a rather rosy outcome,” he wrote. Einhorn bought Vodafone shares at an average of 138 pence ($2.20), 2.6 percent above its price now, and says he expects the company’s wireless venture with Verizon Communications Inc. of New York to rise in value. “In the meantime, we collect a nice dividend,” he wrote. Einhorn declined to comment, according to Mary Beth Grover , a spokeswoman for Greenlight. Vodafone’s dividend is 6.5 percent of its share price, compared with an average of 2.7 percent for the Newbury, England-based company during the past 18 years, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Telephone companies in the MSCI World pay a dividend yield of 5.5 percent on average, 2.9 percentage points more than the global index’s average, close to the biggest premium since 1995. Consumer Goods Companies in the S&P 500 that sell consumer goods pay out 3 percent of their share prices on average, the most since July 2001 relative to the U.S. equity benchmark’s 2.2 percent, the data show. The industry in the MSCI World has a dividend yield of 2.8 percent, the highest relative to the index since 2006. Weiss, who oversees about $50 billion as chief investment officer at City National Bank, is buying Walmart because the Bentonville, Arkansas-based retailer trades at 15 times profit from the past year, the biggest discount to the S&P 500 since at least 1990. Walmart’s dividend is 2 percent of its share price, the highest ever relative to the S&P 500. “The argument in favor of high-dividend, value-oriented stocks this year is a very strong and compelling one,” Weiss said in an interview from Beverly Hills, California. “There are so many investors out there who are hungry for more income.” Bull Market Corporate bonds are beating stocks by the biggest margin since February as investors prefer the securities’ fixed payments, data compiled by Bloomberg show. While the MSCI World has lost 4.1 percent including reinvested dividends in January, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Corporate Index gained 1.8 percentage points. In December, stocks outperformed bonds by 2.4 percentage points. Fisher, who oversees $36 billion as chairman of Fisher Investments Inc. in Woodside, California, is avoiding defensive stocks. He says raw-material producers , industrial companies and technology providers are better bets than makers of household goods because the economy will rebound faster than economists forecast. U.S. gross domestic product increased in the fourth quarter at the fastest pace in six years, rising at an annual rate of 5.7 percent. That beat the median forecast of 84 economists in a Bloomberg survey, according to a report on Jan. 29 from the Commerce Department in Washington. The economy will grow 2.7 percent this year, the most since 2006, a Bloomberg survey shows. “If we’re going to have a nice up year this year, I wouldn’t expect dividend-yielding stocks to lead,” said Fisher. “Both revenues and earnings will be stronger than what people think.” Earnings Rebound A record nine-quarter earnings slump for S&P 500 companies is projected to have ended in the final three months of 2009 with a 76 percent increase in profits. Almost 80 percent of the results released since Jan. 11 topped the average forecasts of Wall Street estimates, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Wall Street advice to buy defensive shares didn’t work in 2009. Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. led more than a dozen firms that told clients a year ago to purchase European energy producers and U.S. drugmakers while selling banks and retailers, according to combined rankings compiled by Bloomberg. Financial companies led the advance beginning in March with a 114 percent return while energy producers and health-care stocks were the third- and fourth-worst performing industries in the MSCI World, climbing an average of 42 percent. Analysts are most bullish now on computer and software makers, according to ratings compiled by Bloomberg. The MSCI World Index Information Technology Index pays a dividend yield of 1.1 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Bigger Payout Forecasts from Wall Street equity analysts show the S&P 500 may yield 2.6 percent in 2012, up from 2.2 percent now. Even though S&P data shows the payments account for 40 percent of the return in the index since 1926, they reduced the 57 percent tumble during the last bear market by just 1.5 percentage points, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. U.S. equities returned 6 percent a year on average since 1900, inflation-adjusted data compiled by the London Business School and Credit Suisse Group AG show. Take away dividends and the annual gain drops to 1.7 percent, compared with 2.1 percent for long-term Treasury bonds, based on a February 2009 report. Matthew McCormick , a fund manager for Bahl & Gaynor Investment Counsel Inc., said he bought shares of New Brunswick, New Jersey-based Johnson & Johnson and Abbott Laboratories in Abbott Park, Illinois, on speculation investors will favor stocks with consistent earnings. J&J, whose dividend yields 3.1 percent, will likely boost the payment in April to 3.3 percent, according to Bloomberg data. Abbott may lift its dividend next month to yield 3.3 percent relative to its share price, from 3 percent now, the data show. “What worked last year doesn’t necessarily work this year,” said McCormick, whose firm manages $2.7 billion in Cincinnati. “Dividend stocks are the place to be in 2010.” To contact the reporters on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net ; Alexis Xydias in London at axydias@bloomberg.net ; Francesca Cinelli in Milan at fcinelli@bloomberg.net .

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U.K. Risks `Greek-Style Crisis’ on Budget Deficit, Conservative Party Says

January 31, 2010

By Craig Stirling Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) — George Osborne , finance spokesman for Britain’s opposition Conservatives, said the U.K. risks a “Greek-style budget crisis,” as opinion polls showed his party may struggle to win sufficient electoral support to control the pace of debt-cutting measures. “Britain, with the largest debts, the largest borrowing of any major economy in the world, has to deal with this problem,” Osborne told the British Broadcasting Corp.’s Sunday AM show today. “If we don’t, we risk a Greek-style budget crisis that will put interest rates up.” With the election due by June, four polls published this weekend showed the Conservatives with less than a 10 percentage- point lead over Prime Minister Gordon Brown ’s ruling Labour Party. Analysts including Anthony Wells , a pollster at YouGov, say that’s the margin needed to be certain of a Parliamentary majority. Osborne’s call to prioritize budget cuts adds to the squabble between the parties in a campaign where the deficit has taken center stage. “We took action to protect businesses, to help people who became unemployed to get back in, now we’ve got to keep taking that action because we’re not out of the woods yet,” Harriet Harman , deputy Labour Party leader, said on the same program. “I really do shudder to think what would have happened” if the Conservatives had been in government, she said. Osborne’s statements follow investor concern that Greece won’t be able to meet its debt obligations. That prompted the euro’s biggest monthly drop against the yen in January. Opinion Polls Conservative Leader David Cameron , in an interview with the BBC’s Politics show broadcast today, also cited Greece as an example to avoid, and said that he wanted to begin curbing the budget deficit as soon as this year. “We’re not talking about swingeing cuts, we’re talking about making a start,” he said. Business Secretary Peter Mandelson , interviewed on the same program, described Osborne’s comparison with Greece as “ludicrous” and “unpatriotic” and said that the Conservatives were “talking down” Britain abroad. The Conservatives had 9-point leads in polls by BPIX in the Mail on Sunday and YouGov Plc in the People published today. Yesterday, an Ipsos-Mori poll in the Daily Mirror gave the party an 8-point lead, while another YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph put it at 7 points. Contingency Plan Cameron’s aides believe he should call a second election within months if he wins by too small a margin in the vote expected to take place on May 6, the News of the World reported today, without saying how it obtained the information. Brown plans to stay on as Labour leader unless Cameron wins by a significant majority, the Sunday Times reported, citing an unidentified senior party official. “The polls at the moment give you no confidence that he will” win the coming election with a majority, former Conservative Defense Minister Michael Portillo said in an interview on Sky News today. The budget deficit , expected by the Treasury to reach a postwar high of 12.6 percent of gross domestic product in the fiscal year through March, may remain the battleground as the election approaches. Osborne, Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling and Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman Vince Cable may clash on the economy in a televised debate, the Sunday Times reported today. ‘Albatross of Debt’ Osborne said today that Britain faces an “albatross of debt” and called for “early action.” “That means a credible plan to deal with Britain’s budget deficit so we can keep interest rates lower for longer,” Osborne said. “That’s the absolute key part of having a stronger recovery.” He said that fiscal tightening must be coordinated with the Bank of England’s monetary policy. Osborne also reiterated comments that he backs part of U.S. President Barack Obama ’s plans to curb the banking industry. “We need to stop our retail banks engaging in the riskiest end of investment banking, the large scale proprietary trading,” he said. “I agree we should have an international global banking levy, not the Tobin tax.” Osborne also added to calls for banks to prioritize rebuilding balance sheets and to increase lending, instead of paying out compensation. “The banking sector should be getting credit out to the small- and medium-sized businesses watching this program that are part of the recovery, instead of paying the very large bonuses to the bankers which I think are undeserved at the moment,” Osborne said. To contact the reporter on this story: Craig Stirling in London at cstirling1@bloomberg.net

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David Fiderer: Sham Transactions That Led to AIG’s Downfall: The Ugly Truth Was Hiding In Plain Sight

January 29, 2010

If you want to understand the deals that wiped out AIG, the best place to start is the website of the New York Fed . In the financial statement of Maiden Lane III, published last April, we see the gory details of the three largest CDO investments – Max 2008-1, Max 2007-1, and TRIAXX 2006-2A – acquired from AIG’s banks at par. Those deals, which totaled $10.7 billion, offer a template for evaluating the other sham transactions in the portfolio. Initially, the business deal between AIG and the banks was that AIG sold credit default swap protection. Banks buy credit default swaps for two reasons: They want to slice and their dice credit risk, and/or they want to hide something. Here’s a simple, fairly innocuous, illustration: Suppose you’re a banker who tells his client, Procter & Gamble, “We want to expand the relationship and do more business with you.” P&G then says, “Fine, lend us $100 million.” Back at the office, your senior credit management says, “The maximum risk exposure we approve for P&G is $80 million.” How do you keep in P&G’s good graces? You lend the company $100 million, and simultaneously offload $20 million in risk exposure by purchasing a credit default swap from another bank. P&G’s understanding is that you’ve lent them $100 million. When Deutsche Bank bought a credit default swap from AIG in 2008, its primary motivation was not to slice up the credit risk, but to hide virtually all of it. Max 2008-1 , a CDO that Deutsche arranged and closed on June 25, 2008, was huge. The total debt issue was $5.8 billion, of which 94%, or the entire $5.4 billion Class A-1 tranche, was covered by one credit default swap issued by AIG Financial Products. The Class A-1 tranche was considered “supersenior” because it was ahead of two other tranches, both originally rated Aaa, which totaled $200 million. (The remaining debt $200 million worth of debt was rated Aa, a and Baa at closing.) Put another way, Deutsche Bank did not bring Max 2008-1 to “the marketplace,” where investors might consider buying the deal on its own merits. By normal standards, the “market” for this CDO never really existed. Nor did Deutsche sell the deal to AIG, which could have assumed both the risks and rewards of owning a huge CDO. (In all fairness, we do not know where the remaining 6%, or $400 million, of less-senior tranches ended up. Deutsche could have kept them in inventory to be stuffed into a yet another CDO.) Almost all circumstances surrounding Max 2008-1 seem weird. We do not know much about the $5.4 billion Class A-1 tranche, except that it was never downgraded below its initial Aaa rating. Yet, according to Deutsche Bank, AIG and Maiden Lane III’s accountants, the underlying value of Max 2008-1 collapsed within a matter of months. By the time that the government agreed to acquire the CDO at par, the Class A-1 tranche purportedly had a negative “mark-to-market” of $2.5 billion . (As noted earlier , accountants, both for AIG and the Fed, determined that that there was no market benchmark for valuing any of the CDOs.) So did AIG turn over $2.5 billion in cash collateral to Deutsche? No. It turned over $4 billion, as revealed in AIG’s filing with the SEC , dated May 15, 2009. Among the hundred plus CDO deals to which AIG extended credit protection, the only ones which received collateral postings in excess of the “negative market-to-market” were the two biggest: Max 2008-1 and Max 2007-1, as revealed in the SEC filing of May 15, 2009 . Together, those two CDO tranches had a par value of $7.5 billion and a “negative market-to-market” of $3.5 billion at the time Maiden Lane III closed. But AIG had already turned over $5.6 billion in collateral to Deutsche Bank, $2 billion more than what anyone thought to be necessary. Everything about Max 2008-1 suggests that the parties were not acting on an arms-length basis, that they had something to hide. A deal rated Aaa doesn’t decline in value by 40% within months after closing and still retain its Aaa rating. (The more junior tranches received moderate downgrades on March 19, 2009.) A cash-strapped insurance conglomerate does not turn over $2 billion in excess cash collateral for no reason. AIGFP had unsuccessfully struggled for the better part of a year to establish an agreed-upon method for calculating the amounts of cash collateral postings on these credit default swaps. It seems more than a little odd that it would choose to expand this problem with a credit derivative more than twice the size of its next largest CDO exposure. And it seems especially odd that it would close such a deal in June 2008, one month after Moody’s and S&P had downgraded AIG, and issued warnings that further downgrades could be coming. What becomes obvious, after reviewing Max 2008-1, Max 2007-1, and TRIAXX 2006-2A, is that these deals never could have been done but for AIG’s willingness to assume the lion’s share of the credit risk. TRIAXX 2006-2A was a $5 billion deal, of which AIGFP assumed $3.2 billion, or 64%, of the credit risk. AIGFP provided credit protection in three different tranches, all of which were rated AAA at closing. The sole underwriter and arranger for the $5 billion CDO, which closed in December 2006, was an outfit called ICP Securities LLC , a private firm owned by its employees. In retrospect, it seems remarkable that AIG would have assumed such a large exposure in a deal structured by a relatively small private company. Nonetheless, ICP was able to sell its deal into the marketplace, if that’s the correct way to characterize it. Of the $3.2 billion in credit protection sold by AIG, $2.5 billion was purchased by Goldman Sachs, another $0.4 billion was acquired by an affiliate of Dresdner bank, and $.03 billion was acquired by a company of unknown origin, called CORAL Purchasing (Ireland) Limited. All of this information was disclosed by AIG to the SEC on May 15, 2009. The Aaa ratings at TRIAXX 2006-2A remained in effect at the time AIG collapsed, and at the time the CDOs were sold at par to Maiden Lane III. Nonetheless, Goldman had demanded, and received about $1 billion in cash collateral postings prior to the date when the New York Fed took the exposure off of AIG’s books. About a month after Maiden Lane III closed out its books for the year, on December 31, 2008, TRIAXX 2006-2A suffered a downgrade, to Caa . Those eight-month-old public disclosures are very incomplete, but they reveal a lot. They indicate that these CDO deals were not, by any stretch of the imagination, conducted on an arms-length basis, and that the these transactions took forms that were designed to conceal the true economic interests of the parties. I’m always amazed by what people, especially people not from the financial world, don’t know. Big banks are not like the Pentagon or the Coalition Provisional Authority. Billion dollar amounts do not just slip through the cracks. There is no way that the very top people at AIG and Deutsche Bank would not be thoroughly briefed about every aspect of a $5.4 billion credit default swap for a CDO called Max 2008-1. The newly disclosed information , which reveals the redacted parts of AIG’s May 15, 2009 filing, serves to confirm what we already realized. At AIGFP’s CDO business, nothing was what it seemed.

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Tony Blair Says `Calculus of Risk’ Changed After Sept. 11 Attacks on U.S.

January 29, 2010

By Thomas Penny and Kitty Donaldson Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — Former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair said the “calculus of risk” changed after the Sept. 11 attacks and made the invasion of Iraq necessary to stop weapons of mass destruction getting into terrorist hands. Blair, who is today facing six hours of questioning in London on the conduct of the Iraq war and Britain’s part in the conflict, said that before 2001 the strategy was to contain Saddam Hussein . “Up until September 11 we thought he was a risk, but it was worth trying to contain it,” Blair said. “The crucial thing about September 11 is the calculus of risk changed. What changed my perception of risk is if these people inspired by this religious fanaticism could have killed 30,000 they would have done.” The probe, which opened on Nov. 24 and is chaired by a retired civil servant, John Chilcot , is the fifth into the war since the invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein from power. Blair backed the war and sent more than 40,000 troops, costing him popularity at home that led to his resignation in 2007. Blair said that he feared chemical and biological weapons in Iraq could get to the terrorists. “These people would use chemical or biological weapons or a nuclear device if they could get hold of one,” Blair told the hearing. From 2001 “my view was you could not take risks with this issue at all,” Blair said. “From that moment Iran, Libya, North Korea, the machinery of A.Q. Khan, the former Pakistani nuclear scientist — all of this had to be brought to an end,” he said. ‘Unremitting Message’ Blair said he wanted to send “an absolutely powerful, clear and unremitting message that after September 11 if you were a regime engaged in WMD, you had to stop.” Blair said in September 2002 that a dossier of intelligence showed “beyond doubt” that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. The inquiry has been told that the information in the dossier, which included a claim that Iraq could deploy missiles in 45 minutes, contained a number of caveats. The Iraq committee has already heard evidence from senior diplomats and ministers who were involved in the decision to back the U.S-led invasion in 2003. Prime Minister Gordon Brown , who was finance minister at the time, will give evidence in the next few weeks. The inquiry aims to publish its conclusions after the general election that must be held by June. Blair’s Opponents “ Tony Blair enters the arena this morning with a very large swathe of the political class already against him, including people who have now changed their mind since 2003,” former Home Secretary David Blunkett told BBC radio today. The review is being carried out by a panel of the Privy Council, which is investigating the period from summer 2001 to July 2009. The panel, which includes Usha Prashar , a member of the House of Lords, Lawrence Freedman , a security academic, Martin Gilbert, a historian, and Roderic Lyne , a senior adviser to JP Morgan Chase & Co., has the authority to question any British citizen and to see all relevant documents. In 2003, the Foreign Affairs and the Intelligence and Security committees each investigated the intelligence used in making the case for war and found that too much prominence was given to the claim that former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein could deploy missiles in 45 minutes. Blair, who is now Middle East envoy for the Quartet of the United Nations, the U.S., the European Union and Russia, will cooperate fully with the inquiry, his spokesman said when the probe was launched in July. U.K. combat troops carried out their last patrol in Iraq on April 30 last year and have left the country, according to the Ministry of Defence. The conflict claimed the lives of 179 British service personnel. Between 95,158 and 103,819 Iraqi civilians have died since the invasion, according to the Web site Iraq Body Count. To contact the reporters on this story: Thomas Penny in London at tpenny@bloomberg.net ; Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net .

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Toyota Dealers May Lose $2.47 Billion in Monthly Revenue as Sales Halted

January 29, 2010

By Mike Ramsey and Doron Levin Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — U.S. dealers who sell Toyota Motor Corp. ’s namesake brand could lose as much as $2.47 billion in combined monthly revenue because of the halt of sales of eight models, including the popular Camry and Corolla sedans. The 1,234 Toyota brand dealers would miss out on $1.75 million to $2 million a month in revenue from new and used versions of the models that aren’t allowed to be sold, said John McEleney, the chairman of the National Automobile Dealers Association and owner of McEleney Toyota in Clinton, Iowa. “We’ve never really dealt with anything like this with any manufacturer,” said McEleney, who also owns a Chevrolet dealership in Clinton. Hyundai Motor Co. yesterday joined Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co. in offering discounts to lure Toyota owners, while consumer Web site Edmunds.com said fewer shoppers are aiming to buy Toyotas. The company’s U.S. market share may fall to 14.7 percent in January, its lowest since March 2006. At the same time, dealers are preparing to replace accelerator pedals in 2.3 million recalled vehicles that have a part that may be defective. The pedal flaw also triggered recalls of models in Europe and China. Service Work Profit from that service work may blunt the damage from lost new and used car revenue, said dealers. Toyota remained the top-selling brand in the U.S. last year, while the parent company was again the world’s largest automaker. The estimated loss of revenue per dealership assumes the vehicles affected account for 56 percent of the new-car volume and 30 percent of the used-car sales at an average dealer with a transaction price of around $30,000, McEleney said. The loss of revenue from new cars would be $1.25 million to $1.5 million with the rest coming from lost used-car sales. “We’re still selling cars,” said Billy Rinker, general manager of Toyota of Santa Monica in California. Many customers are asking about the recall and focusing on the information in the media, he said. “We’ve been explaining to customers that it’s something happening in a small percent of high-mileage vehicles,” Rinker said. Warranty work can be highly profitable for franchised dealers, which typically bill at least $75 an hour for labor and could realize a gross profit of $100 to $150 for each accelerator that needs to be replaced, said Marc Cannon , spokesman for AutoNation Inc. , the nation’s biggest Toyota dealer with 25 franchises. ‘More Profitable’ “Once the fix gets announced it will be a positive for our business,” said Tony Pordon , a spokesman for Penske Automotive Group Inc., based in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan. “Parts and service work is much more profitable than selling vehicles, comprising almost half of gross profit.” PAG operates 17 Toyota dealerships in the U.S. Toyota has told dealers it will help to offset the interest expense on loans for vehicles in inventory that can’t be sold, McEleny said. As well as the Camry and Corolla, the vehicles that Toyota has prohibited selling include the Avalon, Highlander, Matrix, RAV4, Sequoia and Tundra. The eight models accounted for 106,012 sales in December and about $2.5 billion in revenue to dealers, according to data from vehicle research firm Edmunds.com. Sales Impact “It’s a little premature to guess or estimate the impact on sales at this point,” said Celeste Migliore , a spokeswoman for Toyota’s U.S. sales unit in Torrance, California. The company will discuss sales in detail on Feb. 2, when it releases figures for the entire month of January, she said. Rivals Honda Motor Co. and GM probably are gaining buyers as consumers shy away from Toyota brands, Edmunds.com said. The share of people intending to purchase a Toyota-brand model fell to 10 percent Jan. 27 from 13 percent a day earlier, while GM and Honda each rose 1 percentage point to 15 percent and 12 percent, according to Edmunds.com. The analysis is based on visits to the Edmunds.com Web site. To contact the reporter on this story: Mike Ramsey in Southfield, Michigan, at mramsey6@bloomberg.net ; Doron Levin in Southfield, Michigan, at dlevin5@bloomberg.net

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Virgin Money May Name Former Lloyds CEO Pitman as Chairman Amid Expansion

January 27, 2010

By Andrew MacAskill Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) — Virgin Money Holdings U.K. Ltd., Richard Branson’s financial-services division, is in talks with former Lloyds TSB Chief Executive Officer Brian Pitman about taking the post of chairman, a person familiar with the matter said. Pitman, 78, who advised Branson on his bid for Northern Rock Plc , may be named to the post as early as this week, said the person, who declined to be identified because the talks are private. Pitman was credited by analysts with transforming Lloyds TSB into Britain’s most profitable lender before his departure in 2001. Virgin today completed its acquisition of Church House Trust Plc, which will give the firm a banking license. Branson , chairman of Virgin Group Ltd., is one of several people planning to create lenders in the U.K. after the credit crunch led to a series of bank rescues including Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc , and the departure of some overseas-based lenders. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said he wanted “new people” in the industry. A spokesman for Virgin Money declined to comment. An answer machine message left at Pitman’s office was not immediately returned. The Financial Times reported the news of Pitman’s possible appointment earlier. Both Branson and Pitman have received knighthoods from Queen Elizabeth. Pitman is also a senior adviser to the Financial Services Authority and to Morgan Stanley International . For Related News and Information: More banking news: NI BNK More merger and acquisition news: NI MNA

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Billionaires Make More From Ideas Than Bubbles: William Pesek

January 26, 2010

Commentary by William Pesek Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) — All the buzz about losers if Google Inc. leaves China ignores a potential winner: India. In any China-versus-India contest, 2009 belonged to China. Its 10.7 percent growth in the fourth quarter blew the doors off the 6.5 percent India may have experienced. It will be the toast of the town in Davos, Switzerland, this week at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. China’s “old economy” is clearly booming , and investors haven’t made a lot of money betting against it. Why, then, would China’s leaders imperil their future prospects as 2010 gets under way? That’s what they may do by letting Google, the Information Age’s biggest name, walk away. “I would look going forward for new investment increasingly to go somewhere else — probably India, Brazil and other big markets,” William Reinsch , president of the National Foreign Trade Council in Washington, said on Jan. 21. Google’s announcement this month that it is considering leaving China amid misgivings about censoring the Internet won’t change everything on its own. China’s top-down economy is thriving, while India’s is bureaucratic, inefficient and notoriously corrupt. Yet India has a track record of innovation and a stable of internationally competitive companies that China doesn’t. India also has far superior laws on intellectual property and corporate governance. And China’s willingness to blow off Google plays to India’s relative advantage in these areas. Bypassing China China should be concerned about the most influential Internet tool bypassing its $4.3 trillion economy and 1.3 billion people — and the specter of other Silicon Valley giants following suit. Executives at multinational companies who dragged their feet on diversifying investments away from China may now expedite the process. At issue is the next phase of China’s development. Too much attention is on ideas of the last century: keeping labor cheap, holding down the currency, picking and subsidizing national champions and favoring exports for growth. China’s spat with Google underlines how the Communist Party relies on the strategies of yesterday, not tomorrow. It’s really a proxy for how the past and future are colliding. Who knows, perhaps China’s mix of free-market policies and limits on free speech is a viable new model. It’s possible that China can thrive while censoring cyberspace and the media. Perhaps China will prove that it can leapfrog over years of domestic company building — as with Lenovo Group Ltd.’s purchase of International Business Machines Corp.’s personal- computer business. China does, after all, have $2.4 trillion of currency reserves to deploy around the globe. Ideas, Not Sweat The odds don’t favor it, though. Letting Google leave may dull the long-term benefits of the trillions of yuan that China is throwing at the economy. It limits the participation of entrepreneurs in an age where ideas and impulses mean more than sweat on factory floors. It also makes it less likely that massive stimulus efforts lead to the kind of self-sustaining, indigenous economy that China needs. The question is where China wants to be in five or 10 years. The world is now driven by knowledge flows, making it vital to stay attuned to the latest developments in any field. Only then can innovators ride the latest waves in international business and finance and create the hundreds of millions of jobs needed to raise living standards. India’s Billionaires Here, my thoughts are with India’s billionaires. They must be rubbing their hands together in glee as China’s leaders make an expensive miscalculation. According to a 2008 Forbes magazine poll, India may have the most billionaires by 2017. China’s ultra-wealthy are growing in numbers. It’s better, though, for one’s billions to come from new ideas than from bubbles in the Chinese stock market , which rose 80 percent last year. What China lacks is a growing roster of homegrown knowledge-based and technology outfits creating jobs, pushing the country up the value chain and inspiring young people to become the next Bill Gates . Nandan Nilekani , the co-founder of Bangalore-based Infosys Technologies Ltd., is often called India’s answer to Microsoft Corp.’s co-founder. When asked about the secret of India’s success in technology, Nilekani points to a free press and a rabid embrace of information flows. In other words, if India censored cyberspace, companies such as Infosys or Wipro Ltd. wouldn’t be what they are today. Benefits of Growth India’s challenges are overwhelming. It scores low on global efficiency scales, infrastructure is dodgy and bottlenecks to investment are many. India lags far behind China in reducing poverty. That’s where billionaires such as Nilekani re-enter our story. Millions of rural poor people claim that corrupt officials steal their paltry wages, withdrawing money from post-office accounts without providing proof of identity. India turned to Infosys to devise a fraud-proof deterrent. A year from now, Nilekani will roll out the world’s biggest biometric database to enable India’s 1.2 billion people, half of whom lack access to financial services, to open an ICICI Bank Ltd . account or sign up for a Vodafone Group Plc mobile phone. It’s not the Three Gorges Dam or the Shanghai skyline, yet India’s technology billionaires are helping the government devise new strategies and spread the benefits of growth. China, for all its advantages, could use more of that dynamic. Waving goodbye to Google won’t help. ( William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.) Click on “Send Comment” in the sidebar display to send a letter to the editor. To contact the writer of this column: William Pesek in Tokyo at wpesek@bloomberg.net

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Dubai Helping Iran Evade Sanctions as Smugglers Fail to Bow to U.S. Laws

January 26, 2010

By Kambiz Foroohar Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) — On a sweltering mid-October evening, horns blare as pickup trucks at Dubai Creek wharf jockey to deliver cargo bound for Iran. Televisions, cartons of toothpaste, car parts, refrigerators and DVD players stretch for about a mile on the dock along the murky waterway that snakes to the Persian Gulf. “We’ll take anything as long as you pay us,” says Ali, a 24-year-old Iranian deck hand in an oil-stained T-shirt, as he pulls down a blue tarpaulin covering air conditioners, tires and tea bags headed for the port of Bandar Abbas , 100 miles (160 kilometers) across the Gulf. “We’ve taken American stuff — printers, computers, everything.” Years before the world turned its attention to Dubai’s financial crisis, the second largest of the seven states in the United Arab Emirates was amassing clout — and money — as Iran’s back door to the West, Bloomberg Markets magazine reported in its March issue. Iran’s biggest non-oil trading partner provides a stream of household items — from diapers and mobile phones to laptops and washing machines — as well as illicit items such as aircraft parts and computer chips that the U.S. says have nuclear and military uses. The U.S. forbids American companies from sending anything to Iran, with limited exceptions, such as medical supplies, and has pressed other nations to stop doing business with the country. The Justice Department has prosecuted foreign companies that sell American goods with military uses to Iran. ‘Offshore Business Center’ The U.A.E. was the biggest importer of U.S. products in the Middle East and North Africa, the Government Accountability Office said in December 2007. It ships out as much as 80 percent of the material — and as much as a quarter of that heads to Iran, says Jean-Francois Seznec , a professor at Georgetown University’s Center for Contemporary Arab Studies in Washington. From 2005 to 2009, trade between Dubai and Iran tripled to $12 billion, according to the Dubai Chamber of Commerce. Iran’s main exports to Dubai are nuts, carpets and petrochemicals. “Dubai is Iran’s offshore business center,” says Afshin Molavi , a fellow at the Washington-based New America Foundation , which analyzes public policy. “Dubai plays a huge role in Iran’s economy.” Dubai’s porous borders enable Iran to snub the West. The Islamic Republic has disregarded United Nations Security Council demands that it cease work on its nuclear program, which the U.S. and its allies suspect is geared to giving Iran nuclear weapons. The U.S. State Department charges that Iran’s regime backs terrorist groups, including the Taliban in Afghanistan and Hamas in the Palestinian territories. Close Economic Ties Imports from Dubai are helping to grease the economy at a time when the Iranian government is struggling to keep a lid on a growing demand for democracy. Iran’s footprints are everywhere in Dubai. About 8,000 Iranian businesses, and at least 1,200 trading companies, operate in the emirate, according to the Iranian Business Council , a Dubai-based group that promotes economic ties. The sprawling Iranian Club offers outdoor sports facilities, a stadium, a hotel, a theater and a restaurant with some of the best Persian food in town. Dubai doesn’t enforce the wearing of Islamic hijab for women. Inside the club, women wear the covering clothing and headgear to conform to rules in Iran. Clocks for Tehran and Dubai, a half hour apart, hang next to pictures of Iran’s former and current supreme leaders, ayatollahs Ruhollah Khomeini and Ali Khamenei . ‘Absolute Sieve’ “You can get anything you want, and you can ship anything you want to Iran,” says Morteza Masoumzadeh, an IBC director and owner of a shipping company that transports goods between Iran and Dubai. “Every company in Iran is either here or has representatives here.” Lisa Prager , a partner in the Washington office of law firm Wilson, Sonsini, Goodrich & Rosati and a former deputy assistant secretary at the Department of Commerce , agrees. “Dubai is an absolute sieve,” says Prager, who has investigated smuggling in the emirate. Sultan Bin Nasser al-Suwaidi , governor of the U.A.E.’s central bank, and Saeed Abdullah Al-Hamiz , head of banking supervision, didn’t return e-mails or phone calls seeking comment. Hamad Buamim , director general of the Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry, declined interview requests. Yousef Al Otaiba, the U.A.E.’s ambassador to the U.S., declined to comment through a spokesman. ‘Aggressive Measures’ In an e-mail, the U.A.E. Embassy in Washington said, “The U.A.E. fully supports and enforces United Nations Security Council resolutions barring shipment of sensitive materials and technologies to Iran and is taking aggressive measures to enforce export-control laws that prevent the transshipment of illicit materials.” In 2007, Dubai imposed export-control laws designed to combat smuggling of military goods to Iran. The U.S. imposed economic sanctions on Iran in 1979 after followers of the late Ayatollah Khomeini held 52 Americans captive in the U.S. Embassy in Tehran. In its latest annual report on terrorism, published in April 2009, the State Department said Iran remained the world’s most-active state sponsor of terrorism. The department charged that Iran has funneled money and weapons to groups that have planted roadside bombs in Iraq. Since the summer, millions of Iranians have taken to the streets to protest the validity of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s June 12 re-election. At least 50 have been killed and thousands detained. “The Iranian people have sought nothing more than to exercise their universal rights ,” U.S. President Barack Obama said on Dec. 28. “They have been met with the iron fist of brutality.” Profitable Trade Iran has frustrated Obama, the U.S. and the United Nations by pressing ahead with its nuclear enrichment program, in which uranium is converted into fuel that can be used for power plants as well as weapons. Obama has warned that Iran would face consequences if it failed to show its efforts were peaceful and transparent. Iran, which says its nuclear program is peaceful, spurned a deal offered by China, France, Germany, Russia, the U.K. and the U.S. to reduce its nuclear stockpile. Iran says countries see the value in maintaining their ties with the Islamic Republic, despite U.S. and UN sanctions. “Many countries have been under pressure, but they’ve made decisions according to their interests,” Shamseddin Hosseini , Iran’s economy and finance minister, said during an International Monetary Fund meeting in Istanbul in October. “The fact is that having a trade relationship with Iran is very profitable.” Abu Dhabi’s Role Abu Dhabi, the most powerful of the emirates by virtue of about $45 billion in oil exports in 2009, may flex its muscles to try to break up the Iran-Dubai connection, says Nader Habibi , an economics professor at Brandeis University in Waltham, Massachusetts . Abu Dhabi, which has always been suspicious of Iran’s political and nuclear ambitions, enjoys considerable leverage. In 2009, the emirate, which is about 16 times the size of Dubai, stepped in with a $20 billion bailout. The money included $10 billion for Dubai World, the state- run holding company that spent billions to carve out of the desert a financial hub and tourist destination. In a nod to the growing influence of Abu Dhabi leader Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Dubai renamed its 200-story Burj Dubai skyscraper the Burj Khalifa in January. The three Persian Gulf neighbors exist in an uneasy triad. Abu Dhabi follows a conservative Sunni religious doctrine that’s at odds with Iran’s Shia Islam. Political Tensions The government of Sheikh Khalifa, who’s also president of the U.A.E., disputes Tehran’s claim to three islands near key shipping lanes in the Gulf. Dubai tries to maintain a middle ground. It has cozied up to Abu Dhabi to ride out its debt crisis. Yet, with what the IBC says are 400,000 Iranians living within its borders — the largest concentration of the emigres outside Greater Los Angeles — Dubai can’t ignore its giant neighbor to the north. Thousands of Iranians travel to Dubai annually for a break from the Islamic Republic’s ban on alcohol and laws that require women to cover their hair and the shape of their bodies. Abu Dhabi, despite the bailout, is leery of Dubai’s freewheeling ways. “A likely price for Abu Dhabi’s help will be a greater centralization of the U.A.E. and less independence for Dubai,” says Eckart Woertz , economics program manager at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Center , which analyzes Middle Eastern policy. ‘Firmer Grip’ Abu Dhabi may push for U.A.E.-wide control of air and sea shipping, he says. Today, each emirate creates and administers many of its own laws, much as U.S. states do. “Abu Dhabi could end up with a firmer grip on implementation of sanctions policies against Iran, which would benefit the U.S.,” Woertz says. The U.S. has struggled for decades to make sanctions against Iran work. It has brought more than 20 cases against companies that it believes broke U.S. rules on exporting military or sensitive nuclear-processing material to the Islamic Republic. Kesh Air International in Novato, California; Limmt Economic & Trade Co. in Dalian, China; and Aviation Services International BV in the Netherlands have all used Dubai as a shipment destination for goods going into Iran, according to court documents. In April 2009, a Manhattan grand jury indicted Limmt on charges it had covertly used New York banks to finance large quantities of restricted materials for Iran. In May, Hassan Keshari , a naturalized U.S. citizen who owns Kesh Air, was sentenced to 17 months in federal prison after pleading guilty to conspiracy to export military aircraft parts to Iran. Banking Ties In September, Robert Kraaipoel, the director of Aviation Services, and his son, Robert Neils Kraaipoel, pleaded guilty to federal charges related to a conspiracy to illegally export aircraft parts to Iran. Both are citizens of the Netherlands. The U.S. has also tried to cut Iran’s access to the American banking system. The U.K.’s Lloyds TSB Bank Plc paid a $350 million fine to the Justice Department and the Manhattan District Attorney’s office in January 2009. According to the department, employees in Dubai and the U.K. had stripped identification tags from money transfers, allowing Iran, Libya and Sudan to send funds through the U.S. financial system. In December, Credit Suisse Group AG agreed to pay $536 million for violating U.S. sanctions and funneling millions of dollars secretly to Iran and other countries. Front Companies Some of the companies the U.S. is targeting set up shop in plain view of Dubai’s bustling docks. Less than 200 meters (650 feet) from Dubai Creek wharf, the grimy, five-story Bani Yas Center office complex served as headquarters for Iranian front companies, according to Alexander Acosta , a former U.S. attorney for the southern district of Florida and now dean of the Florida International University College of Law in Miami. On the ground floor, clothing stores with signs in English and Russian sell off-brand shirts, ties and shoes. In the lobby, the names of 30 trading and transport companies are written in white plastic letters on a black board. A single office here housed four Iranian firms that ordered microchips, computer parts and global-positioning-system devices from U.S. providers, according to court documents. The companies, with names such as Majidco Micro Electronics and Mayrow General Trading, had the electronics shipped to Dubai. From there, it was easy to forward the gear to Iran aboard an Iran Air flight, according to court documents. The Justice Department alleges in an indictment unsealed in September 2008 in Miami that the microchips found their way into roadside bombs in Iraq that were used against U.S. troops . Silent Partners While traces of the four firms had vanished during a visit to the center in October, hundreds of such front companies operate in Dubai, Wilson Sonsini’s Prager says. “We’ve figured it out and we made some cases, but it’s still a sieve,” she says. Iranians also gain a foothold in Dubai by setting up a business with a local resident acting as a silent partner. A U.A.E.-based company can better access lines of credit and import goods than one based in Iran. It’s a simple matter from there to ship the goods across the Gulf, IBC’s Masoumzadeh says. Residents can benefit from such deals. Under Dubai law, businesses must have an Emirati sponsor who takes a 51 percent stake. In return for acting as a silent partner, locals can earn a steady income, ranging from a few thousand dollars to more than $100,000 a year, the New America Foundation’s Molavi says. Deep Roots For more than a century, Persian-speaking Iranians have lived and worked in Dubai, which today has about 1.7 million people. The first Iranian merchants to settle arrived about 150 years ago. Another group emigrated in the 1930s to flee the modernizing edicts of Reza Shah , whose son, Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi , was overthrown in 1979. Others moved to avoid the religious extremism of the Islamic Republic that followed his rule. On this steamy October evening, people are enjoying kebabs marinated in yogurt and stews with pomegranate and walnuts at Iranian restaurants called Abshar and Ostadi. On Fridays, some Iranians attend the Shiite mosque with its green-and-blue glazed-tile facade, which is steps away from the Iranian Consulate. Amities Etemadi, an Iranian architect, came to Dubai in 1999 after graduating from the Islamic Azad University of Tehran. She visits Iran once a year for family reasons but considers Dubai her home, she says, sipping a Diet Coke at an outdoor cafe. In her short-sleeved T-shirt with her hair uncovered, she would be breaking rules in Iran that would earn her a jail sentence or a public lashing. ‘Don’t Take You Seriously’ “It’s difficult to work in construction projects in Iran because they don’t take you seriously as a woman,” she says. It was a different story in the 1960s and 1970s. While the shah encouraged Iranians to be cosmopolitan and Western, Dubai was no more than a village on the edge of the Arabian Desert. Its main industry was exporting pearls. As late as 1960, Dubai had no electricity, no roads, no bridges, no running water and no telephones, according to Jim Krane , author of “City of Gold: Dubai and the Dream of Capitalism” (St. Martin’s Press, 2009). Yet Dubai always had an underbelly that lured hustlers and smugglers, Krane says. Its waterfront offered easy access to the Gulf and to countries in the Mideast, Asia and Africa, and its laissez-faire attitude attracted people with subversive ambitions, he says. “Smuggling became an art form,” Krane says. Links to 9/11 Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan organized a smuggling operation of nuclear material in Dubai, says David Albright , president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington. Khan, who developed Pakistan’s nuclear program, confessed in 2004 to shipping nuclear technology to Iran and Libya. Al-Qaeda used the emirate’s banking system to transfer funds, according to the 9/11 Commission report , which investigated the attacks on New York and Washington. About half of the $250,000 spent on the Sept. 11 attacks was wired to al- Qaeda terrorists in the U.S. from Dubai banks, the commission found. The U.S. government says getting Dubai to cooperate is crucial to its effort to rein in Iran. Treasury Undersecretary Stuart Levey, the U.S. point man on financial sanctions against the Islamic Republic, has shuttled to Dubai more than a dozen times. “I’m aware that Dubai has deep historical ties to Iran,” says Levey, seated in his fourth-floor office in Washington. “They want to be part of the global trading and be a financial center. They see the potential reputational risk that these ties with Iran pose.” Treasury Blacklist The Treasury Department has designated 119 Iranian companies, banks and officials as supporters of Iran’s nuclear or terrorist activities. It has placed them on a list that bans them from having any dealing with U.S. companies and that allows the U.S. to seize their assets. In 2006, the department announced sanctions against Bank Saderat , one of Iran’s biggest lenders, for transferring funds to Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia paramilitary group. The Treasury listed Bank Melli , Iran’s biggest bank, the following year for funding Iran’s nuclear program. The State Department took aim at the U.A.E. in 2007. It threatened to designate the emirates as a “destination of diversion concern,” a label applied to countries that send sensitive nuclear technology to Iran. The classification would have meant that U.S. customs officials would start giving more scrutiny to exports to the U.A.E. Dubai agreed to enact its own stringent laws, which among other things, ban the export or re- export of strategic goods like military hardware without a special license. Dubai Gets Tough Since then, Dubai customs agents have shut down at least 30 local companies, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. Last August, U.A.E. customs investigators intercepted and seized a North Korean ship carrying weapons to Iran. Levey has repeatedly warned banks in Dubai against dealing with Iran. In November 2008, the Treasury further tightened restrictions by revoking a special financial arrangement referred to as a “U-turn license.” This measure in effect prevents U.S. banks from making dollar transfers to Iranian banks or other financial institutions even if the transfers are on behalf of European or Asian companies. “Levey is trying to paralyze Iran, but Dubai is Iran’s biggest trading partner and it won’t be easy,” says Abbas Bolurfrushan , a former president of the IBC who runs an insurance company specializing in shipping. “Iran has experience in getting around sanctions.” Clean Companies From his 19th-floor office in the Radisson Hotel, Bolurfrushan can see Dubai Creek and the dhows brimming with appliances, food and clothing. He left Iran in 1982 after the government nationalized the insurance industry. He set up his own company in Dubai. He says Emirati customs officials are becoming stricter with businesses they think belong to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, the branch of Iran’s military that controls its borders. “The majority of Iranian companies here are clean and have nothing to do with smuggling weapons or material for the nuclear program,” Bolurfrushan says. “Dubai’s security forces have put Iranians under the microscope.” Esfandiar Rashidzadeh says he has felt Dubai’s tighter regulations. In 2004, Rashidzadeh, the former vice governor of Iran’s central bank, set up an affiliate of Iran’s Bank Melli in Dubai. He wanted to attract foreign investors to a fund called First Persia Equity Fund that invested in Iran’s stock market . Americans can’t invest in the fund. In March 2009, the Treasury added Rashidzadeh to its blacklist. ‘Better Intel’ Trouble is, Rashidzadeh says, he’d left the Bank Melli affiliate 18 months before the Treasury’s move. “They need better intel,” he quips, saying the worst consequence of the American action was missing a relative’s wedding in the U.S. Rashidzadeh says U.S. sanctions are unlikely to sway Iran’s policies — but they may make it more expensive to conduct business there. “Their pressure will not change regime behavior but add to the cost of doing business,” he says. “We’ve survived sanctions before.” Stephen Austen , a former managing director of the same investment fund, counters that sanctions are hurting. Austen, who had worked at Lloyds Bank Plc and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. , was one of the fund’s managers in the Cayman Islands and later in Dubai. ‘Sanctions Are Biting’ Austen says U.S. efforts against Iran are frightening potential investors the nation needs to fix its aging oil fields and improve its natural gas production. A lack of machinery and spare parts is hurting Iran’s car industry, he says. Iran is also having trouble getting financing, Austen says. “The U.S. has successfully barricaded Iran from the international capital markets,” he says. “The Iranian government does not want to admit that the sanctions are biting, but they are biting very hard.” That assessment is good news for Levey, who’s unlikely to ease his scrutiny of Iran — or his prodding of Dubai. “Abu Dhabi is going to apply pressure on Dubai to limit its dealings with Iran,” Brandeis University’s Habibi predicts. “Abu Dhabi is no friend of Iran.” With Abu Dhabi in the mix, the U.S. may have finally found a regional ally in its struggle to persuade Dubai to firmly shut Iran’s back door to the West. For Related News and Information: To contact the reporter on this story: Kambiz Foroohar in New York at kforoohar@bloomberg.net

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Fed Wanted All Communications From AIG Run By Its Law Firm

January 25, 2010

As the controversy over massive AIG overpayments to its counterparties — paid for with government money — has unfolded, one key question has been just how much control the Federal Reserve had over whether information about the bailout and subsequent payoffs would be made public. The Fed has claimed that it had little control and that AIG made the decision to hide relevant details, but reports have emerged in recent weeks casting that claim in doubt. And a newly disclosed email increases the doubt substantially. All “significant communications,” a senior New York Fed official writes in the email, “should be run by DPW first.” DPW is Davis Polk & Wardwell, the New York Fed’s law firm. The New York Fed’s counsel, Richard Charlton, laid out the situation in an email to DPW’s Marshall Huebner on September 19, 2008: “Marshall – Sarah Dahlgren” — New York Fed’s AIG point person — “and I called AIG’s GC this morning at 7:15 to alert her to the problems. She or their lawyers will be in contact with you asap. We also told her that future SEC filings, press releases, and other significant communications should be run by DPW first.” “Clearly, the New York Fed weren’t just casual observers here,” said Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), the top ranking Republican on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. “They were calling the shots in a command-and-control type of way and everything that happened, including the efforts to stifle public disclosure, was done so at their behest.” The e-mail was obtained by the Huffington Post and was a part of the 250,000 documents the New York Fed produced from a subpoena issued by Oversight Committee Chairman Ed Towns (D-N.Y.).

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Obama Seeks Bigger Child Care Tax Credit to Foster `Middle-Class Security’

January 25, 2010

By Hans Nichols Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama today will preview a package of tax cuts for the middle class, including an increased tax credit for child care, limits on student loan payments, and an expansion of tax credits to match retirement savings, according to an administration official. The proposals preview one of the main themes the president plans to sound in his State of the Union Address on Jan. 27, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The plan was earlier reported by the New York Times. The president will propose a requirement that all companies, regardless of size, allow their employees to enroll in direct-deposit retirement savings accounts. At an event with Vice President Joe Biden this morning, Obama will announce a plan to enact new safeguards to protect retirement savings. On child tax credits, the president wants to increase the deduction limit from 20 percent to 35 percent for families making under $85,000 a year, the official said. The White House calculates that such an increase would nearly double the tax credit for qualifying families. For student loans, the president will propose that a student’s federal loan payment cannot exceed 10 percent of income above a basic living allowance, the official said. For Related News and Information: To contact the reporter on this story: Hans Nichols in Washington at hnichols2@bloomberg.net

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Obama Will Preview State of Union Package of Middle Class Tax Cuts Today

January 25, 2010

By Hans Nichols Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama today will preview a package of tax cuts for the middle class, including an increased tax credit for child care, limits on student loan payments, and an expansion of tax credits to match retirement savings, according to an administration official. The proposals preview one of the main themes the president plans to sound in his State of the Union Address on Jan. 27, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The plan was earlier reported by the New York Times. The president will propose a requirement that all companies, regardless of size, allow their employees to enroll in direct-deposit retirement savings accounts. At an event with Vice President Joe Biden this morning, Obama will announce a plan to enact new safeguards to protect retirement savings. On child tax credits, the president wants to increase the deduction limit from 20 percent to 35 percent for families making under $85,000 a year, the official said. The White House calculates that such an increase would nearly double the tax credit for qualifying families. For student loans, the president will propose that a student’s federal loan payment cannot exceed 10 percent of income above a basic living allowance, the official said. For Related News and Information: To contact the reporter on this story: Hans Nichols in Washington at hnichols2@bloomberg.net

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Obama Will Preview Package of State of Union Middle Class Tax Cuts Today

January 25, 2010

By Hans Nichols Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama today will preview a package of tax cuts for the middle class, including an increased tax credit for child care, limits on student loan payments, and an expansion of tax credits to match retirement savings, according to an administration official. The proposals preview one of the main themes the president plans to sound in his State of the Union Address on Jan. 27, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The president will propose a requirement that all companies, regardless of size, allow their employees to enroll in direct-deposit retirement savings accounts. At an event with Vice President Joe Biden this morning, Obama will announce a plan to enact new safeguards to protect retirement savings. On child tax credits, the president wants to increase the deduction limit from 20 percent to 35 percent for families making under $85,000 a year, the official said. The White House calculates that such an increase would nearly double the tax credit for qualifying families. For student loans, the president will propose that a student’s federal loan payment cannot exceed 10 percent of income above a basic living allowance, the official said. For Related News and Information: To contact the reporter on this story: Hans Nichols in Washington at hnichols2@bloomberg.net

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Obama Will Preview Tax Reductions for Middle Class Before State of Union

January 25, 2010

By Hans Nichols Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama today will preview a package of tax cuts for the middle class, including an increased tax credit for child care, limits on student loan payments, and an expansion of tax credits to match retirement savings, according to an administration official. The proposals preview one of the main themes the president plans to sound in his State of the Union Address on Jan. 27, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The plan was earlier reported by the New York Times. The president will propose a requirement that all companies, regardless of size, allow their employees to enroll in direct-deposit retirement savings accounts. At an event with Vice President Joe Biden this morning, Obama will announce a plan to enact new safeguards to protect retirement savings. On child tax credits, the president wants to increase the deduction limit from 20 percent to 35 percent for families making under $85,000 a year, the official said. The White House calculates that such an increase would nearly double the tax credit for qualifying families. For student loans, the president will propose that a student’s federal loan payment cannot exceed 10 percent of income above a basic living allowance, the official said. For Related News and Information: To contact the reporter on this story: Hans Nichols in Washington at hnichols2@bloomberg.net

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Ethiopian Air Plane Carrying 90 Crashes Into Sea After Takeoff From Beirut

January 25, 2010

By Massoud A. Derhally and Jason McLure Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) — An Ethiopian Airlines plane with 90 people on board crashed into the Mediterranean Sea after taking off from Beirut, Lebanon, early this morning. Eleven bodies have been recovered and no survivors have been found, Lebanese army Brigadier Saleh Haj Suleiman said by phone. Search operations are ongoing about 8 kilometers (5 miles) off the coast, he said. “Weather conditions are very harsh,” Suleiman said. “We hope, God willing, to find some survivors.” The passengers on flight ET409 included 51 Lebanese and 23 Ethiopians, the carrier said on its Web site . The eight crew members were all Ethiopian. The Boeing Co. 737-800 left Beirut’s Rafik Hariri International Airport for Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital, at 2:35 a.m. and lost contact with air traffic control shortly afterward. Flames were seen coming from the aircraft before the crash near Na’ameh town, south of Beirut, according to the state-run Lebanese National News Agency. Lebanon has been lashed with heavy rains, thunderstorms and high winds for much of the past two days. “It was manageable weather otherwise the crew wouldn’t have taken off,” Chief Executive Officer Girma Wake told reporters at a briefing in Addis Ababa. “On behalf of Ethiopian Airlines and myself I am sorry that this happened.” Lebanese President Michel Suleiman said terrorism was unlikely to have been the cause during a press conference in Beirut. Boeing Investigation The other passengers onboard the plane comprised two Britons and one each from Turkey, France, Russia, Canada, Syria and Iraq, state-owned Ethiopian Airlines said. The Lebanese National News Agency put the number of Lebanese citizens onboard at 54, saying that some held dual citizenship. The wife of the French ambassador to Lebanon was among those on the plane, said Anne-Charlotte Dommartin, a spokeswoman for the French embassy in Beirut. The flight was due to take off at 2:10 a.m. At Bole International Airport in Addis Ababa, people have been told to wait for further information on possible survivors, said Tedros Abdissa, whose 35-year-old cousin Tegist Shokur was onboard the flight. Possible Survivors “She was a domestic servant and her employer beat her up so she chose to leave,” he said in an interview at the airport. The crashed plane was made in 2002 and leased from CIT Aerospace in September, Girma said. Addis Ababa-based Ethiopian Airlines said it had dispatched investigators to the scene of the crash. Boeing is working with the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board to assist Lebanese authorities with the investigation, spokeswoman Sandy Angers said in an e-mailed reply to Bloomberg News questions. Ethiopian Airlines operates a fleet of 37 planes, most of them Boeing aircraft, according to its Web site . It also has orders outstanding for planes including 10 787 Dreamliners, 12 Airbus SAS A350s and 5 Boeing 777s, according to the site. The airline and Boeing announced a deal for 10 737s on Jan. 22. The carrier hasn’t suffered a fatal crash since November 1996, when 125 people died during a hijacking of a Boeing 767 bound for Abidjan, Ivory Coast, according to the Flight Safety Foundation . To contact the reporter on this story: Massoud A. Derhally in Beirut, Lebanon at mderhally@bloomberg.net

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UBS Tax Fraud Decision by Swiss Court May Prompt U.S. to Revive Complaint

January 25, 2010

By David Voreacos, Carlyn Kolker and Ryan J. Donmoyer Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) — A Swiss court ruling that impedes the Internal Revenue Service’s ability to collect data on 4,450 UBS AG accounts may prompt the U.S. to revive a lawsuit that shaped the IRS crackdown on offshore tax evasion. The case involves an Aug. 19 agreement by UBS, the biggest Swiss bank, to settle a U.S. suit seeking data on clients suspected of dodging U.S. taxes. UBS ended the U.S. case by agreeing to hand over 4,450 accounts involving “tax fraud or the like.” That accord violated Swiss law by defining fraud too broadly, Switzerland’s Federal Administrative Court ruled in an opinion released Jan. 22. The ruling may force the U.S. back into federal court in Miami to challenge UBS, said New York tax lawyer Bryan Skarlatos . “The Swiss court may have just put UBS in the awkward position of not being able to fulfill the settlement terms,” said Skarlatos of Kostelanetz & Fink LLP. “In that case, the IRS may consider reopening the settlement to force UBS to give at least 4,450 names.” Switzerland’s government, which sought to preserve Swiss bank secrecy, negotiated the accord on behalf of UBS. The deal resolved a lawsuit that the U.S. filed Feb. 19, one day after UBS avoided prosecution by paying $780 million, handing over data on 255 accounts and admitting it aided tax evasion. With the settlement, the U.S. could say it got the data it sought and Switzerland could say it preserved Swiss bank secrecy, said Thomas Zehnle of Bryan Cave LLP in Washington. The ruling imperils that balance, he said. The U.S. may now be “back to Square One” and have to return to court, Zehnle said. ‘Water Under the Bridge’ “With so much water under the bridge now, I can’t imagine the Justice Department and the IRS backing off at this point,” he said. The U.S. could ask a federal judge in Miami to find UBS in contempt of court for not producing the names, said Scott Michel , an attorney at Caplin & Drysdale in Washington. The U.S. requested the data pursuant to a Swiss-U.S. tax treaty. UBS gave the data to the Swiss government, which must review it and hand it over to the IRS. “The UBS defense against a contempt charge is that it’s impossible for them to comply,” Michel said. “They turned the information over to the Swiss government, and it’s the Swiss government, through the courts, that is blocking their production.” The accord required UBS to hand over data on clients engaged in “tax fraud and the like.” It defined tax fraud in two ways. One way identified clients who hid their ownership through trusts, corporations or other structures. W-9 Form The other way required disclosure of accounts exceeding 1 million Swiss francs ($985,000) held by clients who didn’t give a required W-9 tax form to UBS. This method is considered tax evasion under Swiss law, a civil offense, compared with tax fraud, which is a crime, the court ruled. “Provided the taxpayer did nothing more than not declare income, an account or return the form W-9, consequently committing tax evasion under Swiss law, he hasn’t acted fraudulently,” five judges wrote in a ruling on a test case. In a statement after the ruling, the IRS said it has “every expectation that the Swiss government will continue to honor the terms of the agreement.” Switzerland hasn’t yet transferred UBS client data to the U.S. since it reached the accord in August, Minister Hans-Rudolf Merz told Sonntag in an interview. The Swiss tax office made decisions on about 600 cases so far, Merz told the newspaper. Bank Secrecy The Swiss court ruled earlier this month that the nation’s financial regulator broke Swiss law protecting bank secrecy last February when it turned over the 255 UBS accounts. U.S. prosecutors are combing that data and have said they opened 150 criminal tax investigations of UBS clients. Six UBS clients pleaded guilty in the past year, and several European financial professionals were indicted in the U.S. The IRS and Justice Department also are examining offshore accounts from banks around the world that 14,700 U.S. taxpayers voluntarily disclosed last year through a partial amnesty program. Under the August accord, UBS will fulfill its legal obligations when it discloses data on 10,000 accounts. The IRS hasn’t said how many of the 14,700 voluntary disclosures involved UBS accounts. For clients who disclosed their accounts to the IRS, the ruling last week will not matter, said tax attorney George M. Clarke III of Miller & Chevalier in Washington. “If you’ve already voluntarily disclosed, the government already has your name,” said Clarke. Tax attorney Kenneth Rubinstein said the publicity of the prosecutions and the lawsuit leading to the August accord helped drive the voluntary disclosure program. He said the U.S. will not reopen the Miami lawsuit given the program’s success. “This whole thing was a strategy, a PR strategy,” said Rubinstein, of Rubinstein and Rubinstein LLP in New York. “It was designed to get names — some from UBS, some from other banks, other countries.” To contact the reporter on this story: David Voreacos in Newark, New Jersey, at dvoreacos@bloomberg.net ; Carlyn Kolker in New York at ckolker@bloomberg.net ; Ryan J. Donmoyer in Washington at rdonmoyer@bloomberg.net .

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Adding the long short fund to your portfolio | what are hedge funds

January 24, 2010

industry networking and educational outreach for residential and commercial real estate , private equity and fund management marketplace. We have created a global marketplace and exchange for assets. … Commercial Notes & Properties: Distressed Multi-Family, Distressed Retail, Distressed Office, Distressed Industrial, Distressed Hotels. For More Information about Banks, FDIC, TARP and US Government Distressed Asset Programs go to www.FDIC.gov …

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Reid, Democrats Waver on Support for Bernanke as Obama Sees Confirmation

January 22, 2010

By Edwin Chen and Scott Lanman Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) — Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid wavered on whether to back Ben S. Bernanke for a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve, splitting with Democratic Senators Christopher Dodd and Max Baucus and President Barack Obama , who expressed confidence he will be confirmed. “For right now, yes he is” undecided on whether to vote for Bernanke, Jim Manley , a spokesman for the Nevada Democrat, said in an e-mail. Previously Reid, who faces a re- election race this year, had supported Bernanke. Obama “continues to think he’s the best person for the job and will be confirmed,” Deputy Press Secretary Bill Burton told reporters traveling with Obama in Ohio. Bernanke, while navigating the economy through the worst slump since the Great Depression, has drawn fire from lawmakers for lax regulation prior to the financial crisis and for putting taxpayer dollars at risk through the rescues of Bear Stearns Cos. and American International Group Inc. Dodd , the Senate Banking Committee chairman who proposes stripping the Fed of banking supervision authority, renewed his support for the Fed chief today. Rejecting Bernanke would send the “worst signal to the markets right now” and produce an economic “tailspin,” Dodd , a Democrat from Connecticut, told reporters. “This is the most important central banker in the world.” Stocks, driven lower by President Obama’s plan to rein in banks, extended declines on uncertainty over Bernanke’s future. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 2.2 percent to 1,091.72 at 4:03 p.m. in New York. ‘Positive for Economy’ “Bernanke is viewed by markets around the world as a positive for the U.S. economy and the uncertainty about his reconfirmation is accelerating today’s sell-off,” said Michael Holland , who oversees more than $4 billion as chairman of Holland & Co. in New York. As of 4:12 p.m. in Washington, senators were leaning toward support for Bernanke. Twenty-three said they would vote for the 56-year old former Princeton professor, while 16 were opposed or leaning against him and 23 were undecided. Democrats Barbara Boxer of California and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, both facing re-election this year, said today in Washington they’ll oppose Bernanke, whose term ends at the end of the month. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus , a Democrat, and Judd Gregg , a Republican member of the banking committee, said there’s enough support for Bernanke to secure his Senate confirmation. The Banking Committee voted 16-to-7 on Dec. 17 to recommend Bernanke’s nomination to the full Senate, with 12 Democrats and four Republicans in favor. Six Republicans and one Democrat, Jeff Merkley of Oregon, were opposed. Dodd reminded Republicans today that they initially named Bernanke to his post — and that rejecting his nomination would amount to replacing him with a Democratic pick. “Remember this was George Bush ’s choice as well,” Dodd told reporters today. “Do they want to have the president make his choice for the chairman of the Federal Reserve? Do the Republicans really want that? That would be rather interesting to see.” The Fed chief will probably need 60 votes in the Senate to break procedural holds from at least four lawmakers. Baucus, a Democrat from Montana, said that while Bernanke is likely to be confirmed, the vote may not come before his term expires at the end of the month. No Date Certain “I can’t give you a date, but clearly he will get confirmed,” Baucus said. Asked if Bernanke’s confirmation is in trouble, Baucus said, “No.” The loss in the Massachusetts election this week to fill the seat left vacant by the late Senator Edward M. Kennedy has shaken Democrats, making it harder for party leaders to rally support for Bernanke, said Norm Ornstein , a political scientist at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “It’s more than procedural now because you have this populist surge out there that’s been intensified and reinforced by the Massachusetts election,” he said. “It doesn’t kill the Bernanke reconfirmation but it means for Reid to get to 60 is going to take a greater effort.” Dorgan Opposition Senator Byron Dorgan , a North Dakota Democrat who is retiring this year, said he will oppose Bernanke because the Fed chief rebuffed Dorgan’s request to identify firms that received loans from the Fed during the financial crisis. “I just think that’s unacceptable,” Dorgan said. “I don’t think his nomination should come up until he provides the information that’s requested.” The Fed is appealing a federal judge’s August decision in a lawsuit filed by Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News, to release names of firms that received central bank loans. Traders at Intrade, a Web exchange for futures contracts based on political outcomes, see a 69 percent chance Bernanke will be reconfirmed, down from 93 percent yesterday. The contract has traded as high as 85 percent today. The bid- ask spread on contracts is currently 7.9 percentage points, indicating uncertainty about the odds of reconfirmation. A failure to confirm Bernanke “would really rattle the market,” said Karl Mills, who helps manage about $30 million as chief investment officer for Jurika Mills & Keifer LLC in Oakland, California. “The Fed chair you know is better than the one you don’t. In this political environment, we’re not presuming anything anymore.” Cloture Motion Under Senate rules, a motion to limit debate on Bernanke’s nomination would set up a procedural vote after two legislative days to curtail additional debate to 30 hours. Bernanke’s supporters need 60 votes to limit debate and clear the way for a final vote on whether to confirm him for another term. Dodd and Senator Richard Shelby of Alabama, the panel’s senior Republican, have said the Fed failed to adequately supervise banks. Dodd has also said Bernanke deserved “substantial credit” for helping avert “utter economic catastrophe.” “It is time for a change — it is time for Main Street to have a champion at the Fed,” Boxer said today in a statement. “Our next Federal Reserve Chairman must represent a clean break from the failed policies of the past.” The Fed chairman has increased government backstops to banks and other firms and used the Fed’s balance sheet to revive credit, including through the purchase of $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities. “Under Chairman Bernanke’s watch, predatory mortgage lending flourished, and ‘too big to fail’ financial giants were permitted to engage in activities that put our nation’s economy at risk,” Feingold said in a statement. To contact the reporter on this story: Edwin Chen in Cleveland at echen32@bloomberg.net

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Who Will Replace Bernanke: If He Goes, Who’s Next?

January 22, 2010

Should the Senate decline to confirm Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke for a second term, here’s a list of possible candidates to replace him: Donald L. Kohn , Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System A member of the Board since 2002, Kohn is a Ph.D. economist and a veteran of the Federal Reserve System. Before becoming a member of the Board, he served on its staff as Adviser to the Board for Monetary Policy (2001-02), Secretary of the Federal Open Market Committee (1987-2002), Director of the Division of Monetary Affairs (1987-2001), and Deputy Staff Director for Monetary and Financial Policy (1983-87). He also held several positions in the Board’s Division of Research and Statistics: Associate Director (1981-83), Chief of Capital Markets (1978-81), and Economist (1975-78). Dr. Kohn began his career as a Financial Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (1970-75). Dr. Kohn has written extensively on issues related to monetary policy and its implementation by the Federal Reserve. These works were published in volumes issued by various organizations, including the Federal Reserve System, the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Korea, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Brookings Institution. Janet L. Yellen , President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President and CEO of the San Francisco Fed 2004, Yellen is a Ph.D. economist and member of the Fed’s top policy-making body, the Federal Open Market Committee. Dr. Yellen is professor emeritus at the University of California at Berkeley where she was the Eugene E. and Catherine M. Trefethen Professor of Business and Professor of Economics and has been a faculty member since 1980. Dr. Yellen earlier took leave from Berkeley for five years starting August 1994 when she served as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System through February 1997, and then left the Fed to become chair of the Council of Economic Advisers through August 1999. She also chaired the Economic Policy Committee of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development from 1997 to 1999. Dr. Yellen is a member of both the Council on Foreign Relations and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. She also serves on the board of directors of the Pacific Council on International Policy, and in the recent past, she served as president of the Western Economic Association, vice president of the American Economic Association and was a Fellow of the Yale Corporation. Dr. Yellen graduated summa cum laude from Brown University with a degree in economics in 1967, and received her Ph.D. in Economics from Yale University in 1971. She received the Wilbur Cross Medal from Yale in 1997, an honorary doctor of laws degree from Brown in 1998, and an honorary doctor of humane letters from Bard College in 2000. An assistant professor at Harvard University from 1971 to 1976, Dr. Yellen served as an economist with the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors in 1977 and 1978, and on the faculty of the London School of Economics and Political Science from 1978 to 1980. Dr. Yellen has written on a wide variety of macroeconomic issues, while specializing in the causes, mechanisms and implications of unemployment. Thomas M. Hoenig , President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Hoenig has led the Kansas City Fed since 1991. A Ph.D. economist, Hoenig has been one of the most vocal opponents of “too big to fail,” denouncing it in speeches and criticizing current efforts as largely anemic. Earlier this month he said of the megabanks: “Beginning to break them, to dismember them, is a fair thing to consider.” Dr. Hoenig joined the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in 1973 as an economist in the banking supervision area. He was named a vice president in 1981 and senior vice president in 1986. He has served as an instructor of economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City and lectured on the U.S. banking and regulatory system for the People’s Bank of China. Dr. Hoenig is a member of the Board of Trustees of the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation and serves on the boards of directors of Midwest Research Institute and Union Station. Joseph E. Stiglitz , Nobel Laureate and economics professor at Columbia University Stiglitz, who won the Nobel Prize in economics in 2001, is the former head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers and a former Chief Economist of the World Bank. He’s currently a professor at Columbia University. In 2001, he was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics for his analyses of markets with asymmetric information, and he was a lead author of the 1995 Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. Stiglitz was a member of the Council of Economic Advisers from 1993-95, during the Clinton administration, and served as CEA chairman from 1995-97. He then became Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of the World Bank from 1997-2000. In 2008 he was asked by the French President Nicolas Sarkozy to chair the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress, which released its final report in September 2009. In 2009 he was appointed by the President of the United Nations General Assembly as chair of the Commission of Experts on Reform of the International Financial and Monetary System, which also released its report in September 2009. Stiglitz helped create a new branch of economics, “The Economics of Information,” exploring the consequences of information asymmetries and pioneering such pivotal concepts as adverse selection and moral hazard, which have now become standard tools not only of theorists, but of policy analysts. He has made major contributions to macro-economics and monetary theory, to development economics and trade theory, to public and corporate finance, to the theories of industrial organization and rural organization, and to the theories of welfare economics and of income and wealth distribution. In the 1980s, he helped revive interest in the economics of R&D. His work has helped explain the circumstances in which markets do not work well, and how selective government intervention can improve their performance. Christina Romer , Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers One of President Barack Obama’s top economic minds, the Ph.D. economist had been an economics professor for nearly 25 years. She had called for a $1 trillion stimulus package to help revive the economy. She was co-director of the Program in Monetary Economics at the National Bureau of Economic Research and served as Vice President of the American Economic Association, where she was also a member of the executive committee. She is also a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Romer is known for her research on the causes and recovery of the Great Depression, and on the role that fiscal and monetary policy played in the country’s economic recovery. Her most recent work, authored with her husband David Romer, also an economics professor, shows the impact of tax policy on government and economic growth. Her working papers include “A Narrative Analysis of Postwar Tax Changes,” “Do Tax Cuts Starve the Beast? The Effect of Tax Changes on Government Spending,” and “The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks.”

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Self-Absorbed? Don’t Blame Me, Blame My Genes: Rich Jaroslovsky

January 22, 2010

Commentary by Rich Jaroslovsky Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) — I have fascinating genes. At least, they fascinate me. For the last several weeks, I’ve been getting up close and personal with my DNA as I compared three major do-it-yourself genetic-testing services. These services, which can indicate your risk of certain diseases, are outgrowths of the multibillion-dollar, multiyear effort to map the human genome . It’s where biotech meets infotech. Caveats are in order. First, biology isn’t destiny: Heredity may play only a small part in determining whether you actually develop a condition. Also, there’s a chance the services, two of which also provide ancestry information, turn up things you’d rather not know. If you can get past those issues, they represent perhaps the ultimate in self-absorption. To compare the three services — Navigenics , 23andMe and deCODEme — I signed up for all of them simultaneously. Once I registered and paid online, each sent me a kit to collect genetic material and a mailer to return it. I also returned the kits simultaneously. Navigenics and 23andMe both use saliva samples for analysis. DeCODEme has a slightly more involved process, using a scraping of the inside of your cheek. I was a little concerned about messing things up, but a video on the Web site showed me how to do it. Results were made available on password-protected Web sites, along with resources to help interpret the findings. Of the three, the $999 Navigenics service was generally the speediest and did the best job of keeping me posted on the process. Its kit arrived in a week, and my results were ready 11 days after I returned it. Solely on Health Navigenics, which is based in Foster City, California, focuses solely on health, covering 27 conditions from brain aneurysms to psoriasis. Findings are displayed on an easy-to- understand color-coded grid, with orange boxes indicating risks that may merit particular attention. Clicking on any box plunges you deeper into the results, including detailed explanations of the variations in your genes that may constitute disease markers, tips to mitigate your risk through controlling non-genetic factors and links to support groups and other resources. Navigenics also provides a toll-free number to discuss your results with a licensed genetic counselor; the one I talked to was clear and highly knowledgeable. The site also provides tips and tools for sharing results with your doctor. Slowest to Report 23andMe is based in Mountain View, California, not far from one of its investors, Google Inc. It was the slowest of the services to report: While the kit arrived just four days after I placed my order, it took 18 days for the company to acknowledge receiving my sample, and an additional 17 days before it posted results. I spent the weeks filling out 30 or so simple surveys whose results 23andMe uses for research purposes. Offsetting the long wait, the $499 test was the cheapest of the three, provided some of the most interesting (if not always important) information and incorporated social-networking and fun stuff along with the serious health material. My results were presented as “clinical reports” covering 48 diseases and traits, and “research reports” on less vital conditions or areas where scientific consensus hasn’t quite jelled. All Me The site does a good job of explaining the results, and genetics junkies can dive deeply into how their risks were assessed. Here is also where I learned that only about 4 pounds (1.8 kilograms) of my body weight can be blamed on genetics; the other 20 or so pounds I could stand to lose are all me. Unlike Navigenics, 23andMe provides ancestry information, and can scour its database to come up with an anonymous list of potential relatives — in my case, almost 1,000 of them, ranging from a possible second cousin to others far more distant. Users can message each other through the service with invitations to share names and family histories, and compare genomes. DeCODEme comes from DeCode Genetics Inc. , a Reykjavik, Iceland-based company that filed for bankruptcy protection in the U.S. just as I was signing up for the $985 service. The deCODEme kit was the last of the three to be delivered, 11 days after I ordered it. My results were available 22 days later, but only sort of. When I logged into the site, every item I clicked returned this message: “You cannot view further details until a health-care provider has reviewed your results.” Doctor’s Note Questions were referred to a toll-free customer-service number. The woman who called back politely explained that I needed to provide a letter from my doctor stating that he was prepared to discuss the findings with me, and pointed me to deCODEme’s terms of service. Buried in eight computer screens’ worth of legalese, New Jersey, where I live, is listed as one of 11 states requiring that “a qualified health-care professional is involved in the ordering and the delivery of results.” The other two services didn’t require such hoop-jumping. After I provided the doctor’s note, deCODEme required me to individually consent to see the results on each of the 48 health items it reported on. Even then I couldn’t get directly to my information; for each item, a pop-up window encouraged me to answer several optional research questions first. Once I finally waded through everything, deCODEme provided an impressive amount of material to put my health results in perspective. But I found the ancestry information confusing and generic, compared with 23andMe’s. The best part was a Facebook- like friend function where I could troll for and invite other deCODEme users to share information. I only felt a little like a DNA stalker. Broad Agreement Overall, the findings of the three services, which broadly agreed with each other, are undoubtedly a lot more interesting to me than to you. Among things I found out: While Type 2 diabetes runs on both sides of my family, the tests showed I have less of a genetic risk than most people — which may mean I got lucky in the gene pool, or just that there are other markers the tests don’t yet pick up. On the other hand, I may have slightly greater than average odds of developing glaucoma, though there’s no family history of it. Oh, and according to 23andMe, I metabolize caffeine faster than most people, which may explain why my four-shot Starbucks cappuccinos don’t send me rocketing through the ceiling. If you’re thinking there’s something just a bit narcissistic in all this: You’re right. So enough about me. Let’s talk about me. ( Rich Jaroslovsky is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.) Click on “Send Comment” in the sidebar display to send a letter to the editor. To contact the writer of this column: Rich Jaroslovsky in New York at rjaroslovsky@bloomberg.net .

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Gene for Speed Makes Breeding Top Racehorses a Safer Bet, Scientists Say

January 22, 2010

By Jason Gale Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) — A speed gene in horses is enabling thoroughbred owners to sort would-be sprinters from plodders from just a teaspoonful of the galloper’s blood. Scientists at University College Dublin matched the genetic code of 179 race winners with performance on the track to identify variants of the muscle mass-regulating myostatin gene that predict a horse’s optimum racing distance. The research , published Jan. 20 in the Public Library of Science Journal PLoS ONE, is the first known characterization of a gene contributing to a specific athletic trait in thoroughbreds, the authors said. Commercialization of the test may alter the course of a multibillion-dollar industry whose breeding practices have remained little changed for centuries. “Breeders currently rely on combining successful bloodlines together, hoping that the resulting foal will contain that winning combination of genes,” said Emmeline Hill , 36, a geneticist at the university and the study’s lead author. “Whether those winning genes have or have not been inherited could only be surmised by observing the racing and breeding success of a horse over an extended period of years.” The research was funded by Science Foundation Ireland, according to the study. $1,400 Test For 1,000 euros ($1,400), owners may submit a 5 milliliter sample of their horse’s blood to Hill’s Equinome lab to test whether the animal has inherited a specific myostatin mutation conferring speed for short-distance races, staying power for middle distances or stamina for longer events over 2.1 kilometers (1.3 miles), she said yesterday in a telephone interview. Equinome was co-founded in 2009 by Hill and Jim Bolger, an Irish racehorse trainer and breeder, to commercialize the gene test and pursue research on horse performance genetics. The company plans to begin offering the test at the end of January, according to a university statement. The test results, returned in about three weeks, also will help breeders make better-informed decisions on which mares to mate with which stallions, and tell whether a foal has a genetic predilection for early maturity, advantageous for racing as a 2- year-old, she said. “It takes out a lot of the guesswork and minimizes the risk of any future investment you may have for that horse,” Hill said. “This is a test for what your horse will be good at, not how good he will be.” Horse Genome Project Hill’s research follows the completion three years ago of the Horse Genome Project in which more than 100 scientists in 20 countries collaborated to define the DNA sequence of the domestic horse. The knowledge is enabling scientists to better understand the genetic aspects of equine physiology and disease. In humans, more than 200 genes have been associated with athletic performance traits, Hill said. Scientists expected many genes would contribute to overall performance in horses, so it was unusual that a single gene, myostatin, was so influential, she said. Hill and colleagues found that horses with the myostatin gene combination designated as C/C are better suited to fast, short races; those with the C/T variation tend to compete better over middle distances; and T/T animals have more stamina. C/C and C/T were more successful 2-year-old racehorses, earning an average of 5.5 times more prize money than T/T horses, the authors said. For bettors, the genetic information isn’t likely to yield any advantage anytime soon. “This information is for owners only,” Hill said. “If anyone wants to reveal the genetic type of their horse, then that’s at their discretion.” To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Gale in Singapore at j.gale@bloomberg.net .

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AIG Took Four Tries on Filing as NY Fed Asked to Withhold Records on Swaps

January 21, 2010

By Hugh Son and Michael J. Moore Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) — American International Group Inc. submitted four rounds of regulatory filings in six months, with more than 1,000 redactions, as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York pressed the insurer to withhold data about bailout payments to banks. The insurer made an initial filing on Dec. 2, 2008, about Maiden Lane III, the taxpayer-funded vehicle that bought assets from AIG’s trading partners. After the Securities and Exchange Commission asked for more information, AIG amended December filings three times. The last set of amendments, in May 2009, included more than 400 redactions, and the SEC granted the company permission to withhold the omitted data until 2018. According to e-mails released this month, AIG was asked to limit what the public knew about the Maiden Lane transactions. The payments have been called a “backdoor bailout” by lawmakers because banks, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Societe Generale SA, were reimbursed at 100 cents on the dollar for mortgage-linked securities that had declined in value. “This has been terribly mishandled,” said James D. Cox , a professor of corporate and securities law at Duke University School of Law. “There’s this pattern that emerges that the New York Fed, for a variety of reasons including not causing nervousness about who was an AIG counterparty, covered up its rather heavy-handed approach to the bailout.” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke invited congressional auditors to do a “full review” of the AIG rescue and the New York Fed provided 250,000 pages of documents to a House panel this week. The New York Fed said Jan. 19 that it “assisted AIG in ensuring the accuracy of its disclosures and protected important U.S. taxpayer interests” and that the insurer was responsible for its disclosures. Credit-Default Swaps AIG filings on Dec. 2, 2008, and Dec. 24, 2008, refer to, while not including, a so-called Schedule A, which identifies the banks that bought credit-default swaps from the New York- based insurer to guard against losses on holdings tied to subprime mortgages. The Schedule also lists collateral AIG was forced to surrender as the securities declined in value. AIG said in a draft of the Dec. 24 filing that it paid banks “100 percent of the par value” for securities tied to the swaps. The New York Fed crossed out the wording in the draft, Bloomberg News reported this month. ‘Geeks and Lawyers’ The New York Fed, explaining its editing, said in the Jan. 19 statement that the removed phrasing wasn’t “precisely accurate” because the ratio was about 99.7 cents on the dollar. The New York Fed said language in the Dec. 2 filing was appropriate: “ML III bought approximately $46.1 billion in par amount of Multi-Sector CDOs through a net payment to CDS counterparties of approximately $20.1 billion, and AIGFP terminated the related CDS with the same notional amount. The aggregate cost of the purchases and terminations was funded through approximately $15.1 billion of borrowings under the Senior Loan, the surrender by AIGFP of approximately $25.9 billion of collateral previously posted by AIGFP to CDS counterparties in respect of the terminated CDS and AIG’s equity investment in ML III of $5 billion.” William Poole , a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said that “on a matter such as this, accuracy can be an enemy of clear communication.” The company could have included language similar to what AIG proposed in addition to the more detailed passage “for the geeks and lawyers to contemplate,” Poole said. ‘Confidential Portion’ The SEC said in a Dec. 30, 2008, letter that AIG was “required to file the entire agreement, including all exhibits, schedules, appendices.” After consultation with the New York Fed, AIG requested confidential treatment for the Schedule A, and on Jan. 14, 2009, AIG amended a filing saying that the “confidential portion of this Schedule A has been omitted” and provided to the SEC. The SEC has pressured AIG since 2008 to add to disclosure from regulatory filings, inquiring separately about executive pay and how the insurer values derivatives tied to European bank loans. John Heine , a spokesman for the SEC, declined to comment as did AIG’s Mark Herr and the New York Fed’s Deborah Kilroe . On March 5, 2009, Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn testified before Congress that disclosure of the counterparties’ names would harm the insurer’s ability to do business. That month, AIG executives told regulators they had no objection to disclosing counterparty names, which would show that much of the bailout money flowed to banks, said a person familiar with the discussions who declined to be identified because the talks were private. New York Fed After media reports that month named some of AIG’s counterparties, AIG executives wrote a draft of a letter to the SEC saying that it intended to withdraw its January request for confidential treatment. Later that March, the New York Fed sent edited versions of another request for confidentiality and provided arguments to help AIG make the case. The SEC granted confidential treatment in May of 2009. Following the questioning of Kohn by lawmakers, AIG disclosed the counterparty names on March 15, including Goldman Sachs and Societe Generale. The company filed another pair of Schedule A documents later that month, this time including the bank names. The filings use the word “redacted” more than 800 times and exclude collateral postings and market valuations tied to credit-default swaps. Days before the March filing, Kathleen Shannon , an AIG deputy general counsel, wrote to colleagues that she believed the New York Fed didn’t want the insurer to include names of the securities or their Committee on Uniform Securities Identification Procedures numbers, or CUSIPs. ‘Reasonable Basis’ “In order to make only the disclosure that the Fed wants us to make,” Shannon wrote, “we need to have a reasonable basis for believing and arguing to the SEC that the information we are seeking to protect is not already publicly available.” On May 15, AIG submitted additional amendments, this time including Schedule A documents with the total collateral posted and mark-to-market declines for each contract. AIG redacted most of the CUSIPs and tranche names tied to the swaps. “If such information were to become available to traders in such securities, traders would be able to use such information to their advantage, and undercut the ability of Maiden Lane III to sell those assets for the maximum total return, to the detriment of taxpayers and AIG,” the New York Fed said in its Jan. 19 statement. The House Oversight and Government Reform Committee has scheduled a Jan. 27 hearing to review the bailout and requests by the New York Fed to limit disclosure. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner , who ran the New York Fed during AIG’s September 2008 bailout, has agreed to testify. A Treasury spokeswoman has said that he wasn’t involved in decisions with AIG disclosures. To contact the reporters on this story: Hugh Son in New York at hson1@bloomberg.net Michael J. Moore in New York at mmoore55@bloomberg.net

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Top Hospitals Questioned In Electronic Health Records Probe

January 20, 2010

A congressional inquiry into plans for spending billions of dollars in stimulus money on digital medical records is now questioning some of the nation’s most prestigious health care providers about possible safety flaws and other problems with the electronic systems. Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa), ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, has asked 31 hospitals and health systems across the country in a Jan. 19 letter to advise him of any problems with their computer systems and any “issues or concerns that have been raised by your health care providers” over the past two years. “Hospitals are on the front lines and their perspective will be very valuable in this effort, so I look forward to hearing what they have to say about expanded use of health care information technology,” Grassley said Wednesday in a statement. The hospitals include [ see full list here ] the prestigious Mayo Clinic and others among the country’s leading users and pioneers of digital records, such as Kaiser Permanente, a California-based health system with more than 8 million members. Several top government policy advisors on electronic health records currently work or have been affiliated with some of the institutions now included in the inquiry. David Blumenthal, the Department of Health and Human Services’ top digital records official and a physician, previously was with Massachusetts General Hospital, which received the query from Grassley. Federal officials expect to spend up to $27 billion in stimulus money over the decade to help doctors and hospitals purchase the systems. On Dec. 30, Medicare officials issued draft guidelines detailing standards that doctors and hospitals must meet to qualify for the stimulus payments. Starting next year, doctors can receive as much as $44,000 each from Medicare for buying the systems and making “meaningful use” of them. Hospitals are eligible for millions of dollars in Medicare bonus money. But Grassley, whose committee oversees Medicare, has expressed doubts about the quality of some systems as well as the business practices of some vendors. In October 2009, Grassley wrote to 10 manufacturers, asking them to report problems with what he termed “faulty software.” Grassley said some health care providers told him that, in some cases, software was producing “incorrect medication dosages because it miscalculated body weights by interchanging kilograms and pounds.” Grassley also expressed concern about allegations that some companies impose “gag orders” that prevent users from publicly discussing problems that crop up. The senator also is looking into any financial incentives vendors pay to hospitals that purchase their systems. In his statement, Grassley said he had expanded the investigation after receiving responses from the vendors, although his staff declined to explain what specific information they had received. But Grassley stated in the Jan. 19 letter: “Over the past several months, however, I have been made increasingly aware of difficulties and challenges associated with” adopting digital records systems. An official at the University of California, San Francisco Medical Center, which late last year scrapped part of a $50-million digital records installation amid persistent technical problems, confirmed the hospital had received the letter and would “provide the information requested.” In a statement, the hospital said it has begun working with a new company and expected to have a comprehensive electronic system “operational within the next two to three years.” Grassley’s spokesperson Jill Gerber said they had chosen the hospitals based on both “positive and negative” press reports, complaints, whistleblowers, and their own research. Grassley’s letter also signaled that he was reviewing “reported problems” that “appear to be associated with administrative complications” and “actual computer errors stemming from the programs themselves.” The senator also expressed concerns that many systems essentially cannot talk to each other and that administrators in some institutions have been slow to take action when confronted with software glitches and other concerns. “In addition, I have heard from health care providers around the country that when they report such problems to their facilities and/or the product vendors, their concerns are sometimes ignored or dismissed,” Grassley wrote. He also said that because the systems are not regulated by the Food and Drug Administration, there is no national system for reporting “product errors or failure and adverse events associated with the use of such products.” Spokespersons for two of the facilities, Kaiser Permanente and Massachusetts General Hospital, confirmed they had received the letter, but had no further comment. Do you have information about this story? Send us a tip or submit a correction . Follow the Huffington Post Investigative Fund on Twitter or fan us on Facebook .

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Wen Walks `Tightrope’ as China’s Economic Expansion Probably Exceeded 10%

January 19, 2010

By Bloomberg News Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) — China’s growth probably exceeded the economy’s speed limit in the fourth quarter, escalating pressure on Premier Wen Jiabao to withdraw stimulus measures even as the government seeks to strengthen domestic demand. Gross domestic product rose 10.5 percent from a year before, according to the median of 41 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey for the release scheduled for tomorrow. A pace of 10 percent or higher is excessive, monetary policy committee member Fan Gang said in November, citing the risk of asset bubbles. The acceleration reflects an unprecedented $586 billion fiscal plan and a credit-fueled investment boom that shielded China from the world recession. Wen may this year shift spending to education and health — away from infrastructure — and the central bank will implement a “gradual” monetary tightening to achieve a sustainable expansion, according to HSBC Holdings Plc. “China is embarking on a fundamental transformation in its growth model, toward greater domestic consumption that is likely to make it the world’s largest consumer by 2020,” said Tao Dong , chief Asia-Pacific economist for Credit Suisse AG in Hong Kong. “In the short term the government must deal with excess liquidity and a property-market bubble.” The fourth-quarter number is affected by the comparison with a year earlier, when growth was affected by the financial crisis. Wen said yesterday that the government will focus on month-on-month data when reviewing economic policies. Surging Sales Retail sales increased the most since 1986 last year, after adjusting for consumer price changes, with China becoming the biggest automobile market, overtaking the U.S. The world may again this year count on China as the biggest engine of growth, with the International Monetary Fund projecting it to expand 9 percent, compared with 1.3 percent for advanced economies. Chinese GDP growth is anticipated to have accelerated for the third straight quarter, from an almost 10-year low of 6.1 percent in January-to-March, the survey indicates. The December end to a 13-month slump in exports reduced the drag from the contraction in global trade last year. Hong Kong billionaire Cheng Yu-tung’s New World Department Store China Ltd. plans to expand in China this year and Ford Motor Co. and Volkswagen AG are also boosting investment to tap the rising demand. The strengthening rebound has sparked inflation concern. Consumer prices climbed 1.4 percent in December from a year earlier, after a 0.6 percent gain in November, the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey indicates. The report is also scheduled for tomorrow. Industrial Production Industrial output may have climbed 19.6 percent in December from a year earlier, the most in 2 1/2 years, and urban fixed- asset investment may have gained 31.5 percent last year, according to the survey. China’s property market is also surging. Sales jumped 76 percent to 4.4 trillion yuan in 2009. Residential and commercial real-estate prices in 70 cities climbed 7.8 percent from a year earlier in December, an 18-month high. China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd., owned by the nation’s construction ministry, said this month that 2009 property sales rose 80 percent and developer Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd. said Jan. 5 contracted sales jumped more than 400 percent. “The government is walking a tightrope, balancing growth and concerns about property prices and inflation,” said Lu Ting , a Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist in Hong Kong. “I expect the economy to overheat” by mid-year, he said. Speculative Capital International investors will probably pour as much as $30 billion a month of speculative capital into China in the first half, lured by the nation’s growth and expectations for the yuan to appreciate against the dollar, according to Lu. The government may let the yuan gain starting in the third quarter, Donghyun Park , a senior economist at the Asian Development Bank, said in an interview in Tokyo yesterday. Authorities have kept the currency at about 6.83 per dollar since July 2008 to help exports after letting it appreciate 21 percent over three years. Twelve-month non-deliverable yuan forwards indicate that traders expect the Chinese currency to gain 3 percent over the next year. The People’s Bank of China may also raise its benchmark interest rate in coming months, economists forecast. The central bank last week ordered lenders to set aside more money as reserves and has also guided bill yields higher at auctions this month. The PBOC yesterday pushed the one-year bill yield to a 14-month high, the latest move in a campaign to restrain credit growth that reached a record 9.59 trillion yuan last year. Credit Suisse’s Tao says a loan quota may be introduced before the end of this quarter, banks’ reserve requirements will keep rising, and aggressive lenders may be required to buy central-bank notes at “punitive” rates. Policy makers will probably shift spending this year under the 4 trillion yuan fiscal stimulus plan to education, health care and social security, with building projects falling to about 40 percent of the total from more than 70 percent, Qu Hongbin , HSBC’s chief China economist in Hong Kong, wrote in a note this month. For Related News and Information: Most-read stories on China: MNI CHINA 1W Most-read China economy stories: TNI CHECO MOSTREAD BN For top economic news: TOP ECO For top China news: TOP CHINA Credit crunch page: WCC Government relief programs: GGRP

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Doug Manoni Named CEO of SourceMedia Inc.

January 19, 2010

NEW YORK, NY–(Marketwire – January 19, 2010) – SourceMedia Inc., publisher of American Banker, The Bond Buyer and Financial Planning, has announced the appointment of Doug Manoni as Chief Executive Officer. Manoni who launched and built Wicks Business Information (“WBI”) through its sale to Summit Business Media in 2007, has a 20-year background in information publishing, with extensive experience in online publishing and electronic databases. He joined SourceMedia in September 2008 as Executive Vice President and Managing Director.

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Smart Kids Group Appoints Information Architect CIO/CTO

January 19, 2010

SANTA FE, NM–(Marketwire – January 19, 2010) – Catch the Buzz! Smart Kids Group Inc. ( OTCBB : SKGP ), a global provider of children’s digital education and entertainment, appoints Canada’s renowned Information Architect, Peter Zmudzki, into the dual roles of Chief Information Officer (CIO) and Chief Technology Officer (CTO). Peter Zmudzki has over twenty years of experience in interactive digital communication content and network design and has lectured at a number of colleges and universities on interactive graphic multimedia and network design and technologies.

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Baidu Chief Technology Officer Resigns, Second Executive to Go in 10 Days

January 18, 2010

By Bloomberg News Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) — Baidu Inc. ’s Chief Technology Officer Li Yinan resigned yesterday, 10 days after the operator of China’s most-used search engine said its Chief Operating Officer was also leaving the company. Li quit Baidu for personal reasons, the Beijing-based company said in an e-mailed statement without giving additional information. His departure comes after Peng Ye stood down as COO on Jan. 8. Baidu has lost two senior executives this month as its main rival Google Inc. said it may shut its China Web site and close its offices in the nation, exiting the world’s biggest Internet market. The Chinese search engine’s American depositary receipts have gained 21 percent since Jan. 12, when Google announced its possible departure. Li will move to a unit of China Mobile Ltd., China Business News said on its Web site yesterday, citing unidentified people at Baidu. Prior to joining the Chinese Internet company in October 2008, Li was a vice president at Chinese telecommunications equipment maker Huawei Technologies Co. China was home to 384 million Web users at the end of 2009, greater than the total population of the U.S., according to the China Internet Network Information Center, a government agency that registers online domain names. Baidu had a 58.4 percent share of the Chinese search market last year, compared with Google’s 35.6 percent shares, according to Beijing-based researcher Analysys International. For Related News and Information: Find stories about China’s Internet market: TNI CHINA INTERNET BN See China economic statistics: ECST CH See most-read stories about China today: MNI CHINA 1D

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Albania Plans $431 Million Bond Sale, Nation’s First International Offer

January 18, 2010

By Laura Cochrane Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) — Albania plans to sell its first international bonds to help repay bank loans, joining the busiest start to a year for emerging-market foreign-currency borrowing in a decade as borrowing costs plunge. The Balkan country may offer 300 million euros ($431 million) of three- or five-year bonds and has started the process of hiring a bank to take the lead in managing the issue, the Ministry of Finance said today on its [bn:URL= http://www.minfin.gov.al/index.php?option=content&task=view&id=9 30&Itemid =] Web site []. The Philippines, Mexico, Poland, Turkey, Indonesia and Slovenia have sold more than $13 billion in overseas debt this year, the most by developing nations for the period since at least 1999, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Developing-nation borrowing costs dropped to a 19-month low last week, spurring deals, as recovery from the global recession stoked demand for higher-yielding assets. “There is no way Albania would have been able to sell bonds 12 months or even six months ago,” said Nigel Rendell , an emerging-market strategist at RBC Capital Markets in London. “People are now more positive about the global outlook. Albania will probably sell debt at an attractive interest compared with the next-to-nothing you get on securities out of the U.S. and Europe at the moment.” Albania received a three-year, 95 million-euro loan in May last year and has $225 million of outstanding restructured bonds due 2025, Bloomberg data show. The yield on the restructured bonds was at 6.046 percent on Jan. 15, according to Standard Bank Group Ltd. prices. That compares with an implied yield on U.S. Treasury 10-year futures contracts for March at 3.89 percent today. Vietnam, Slovenia Slovenia sold 1.5 billion euros of 10-year bonds today at a yield of 4.125 percent, or 89.3 basis points more than similar- maturity German government bonds, according to Bloomberg data. Vietnam will start marketing its first international bond sale in four years on Jan. 18, said a person familiar with the matter. Romania may sell 1 billion euros in euro-denominated bonds in the first quarter of this year, and more later in 2010, Finance Minister Sebastian Vladescu said Jan. 12. Angola and Belarus are among countries planning their first international sales. Governments from both countries said in November they were seeking to sell international debt. Kenya’s Prime Minister Raila Odinga said in December the country plans to sell its first Eurobonds. Prepaying Loan Albanian Prime Minister Sali Berisha said in January 2008 the country envisaged issuing its first foreign-currency bonds in May of that year, a sign its economy had shed the legacy of a half-century of communist-imposed isolation. Emerging-market borrowing costs jumped more than threefold from the time of his remark through October 2008, while sales of developing-economy debt plunged as the global economy fell into recession. Almost 200 million euros of proceeds from the planned bond sale will be used to pre-pay a syndicated loan, the Ministry said. The country has an issuer credit rating of B1 from Moody’s Investors Service, four levels below investment grade, putting it on par with Belarus and Mongolia. It was granted the rating in June 2007. Albania’s economy is forecast to grow 2.2 percent this year after 0.7 percent expansion in 2009, according to an October report from the International Monetary Fund. The country joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in April last year and is a potential candidate for European Union membership. The country remains one of the poorest in Europe, hampered by a large informal economy and an inadequate energy and transportation infrastructure, according to the CIA Factbook . Democracy Albania, located in southeastern Europe on the Adriatic and Ionian seas, was trampled first by Mussolini, then by Hitler in World War II. Enver Hoxha , who led the revolt against the Nazis, turned the country into a Stalinist fiefdom, then broke with the Soviet Union and allied himself with China. When the communist regime was swept away in 1991, Albania had none of the economic links with the West that smoothed the transition to democracy in more advanced republics in southeast Europe, such as Slovenia. For Related News and Information: For emerging-market new bond sales: TNI EM NEWBON For Albania news NI ALB For Albania international bonds: ALBANI

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European Stocks Gain; International Power, Cadbury, Richemont Lead Advance

January 18, 2010

By Adria Cimino Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) — European stocks gained, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index rebounding from its first weekly loss in a month, amid speculation acquisitions may pick up after last year’s slump. Asian shares dropped. International Power Plc jumped the most in five months after people familiar with the plan said GDF Suez SA is considering a tie-up with the biggest U.K.-based electricity producer. Cadbury Plc rose 1.4 percent after a report that Kraft Foods Inc. will increase its bid for the chocolate maker. Cie. Financiere Richemont SA, the world’s largest jewelry maker, surged 2.3 percent after sales climbed. The Stoxx 600 advanced 0.5 percent to 257.72 at 8:22 a.m. in London. The measure has rallied 63 percent since March, boosted by record-low interest rates in the U.S. and Europe and about $12 trillion committed by governments worldwide to revive the economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.5 percent, snapping four weeks of gains. U.S. stocks fell last week, pulling the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down from a 15-month high, after profits at Alcoa Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. disappointed investors and China took steps to slow economic growth. The U.S. stock market is closed today for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. Futures on the S&P 500 added 0.2 percent. “With major European markets giving back a good proportion of their early 2010 gains last week, the market will be hoping for a recovery of sorts this week,” Michael Hewson, an analyst at CMC Markets in London, wrote. “With U.S. earnings season taking a pause due to Martin Luther King Day, trading is likely to be fairly subdued.” International Power Increases International Power rallied 5.4 percent to 339.3 pence, heading for the biggest gain since August, and GDF Suez rose 1.3 percent to 28.72 euros. GDF Suez is considering a tie-up with International Power that may lead to a partnership with the U.K. electricity producer, two people familiar with the plan said. Any deal between the two may not necessarily lead to GDF Suez taking control of the U.K. company, although no final decision has been made, the people said, declining to be identified because the talks are private. Christel des Royeries , a spokeswoman for GDF Suez, declined to comment to Bloomberg News, as did Beth Akers , a spokeswoman for International Power. Cadbury gained 1.4 percent to 804.5 pence. Kraft will raise its bid for Cadbury to at least 820 pence a share from 771 pence, the Sunday Times reported, without saying where it got the information. Kraft must raise its offer to at least 850 pence a share, according the median price named in a Bloomberg News survey of nine Cadbury shareholders, who together account for about 11 percent of the shares. M&A Rebound Global mergers and acquisitions are poised for a “modest” rebound this year after companies cut debt and analysts trimmed earnings estimates, according to KPMG. Technology companies may be the most active dealmakers in 2010 because they have relatively low debt levels and “sizable” cash holdings, KPMG said today. Mergers and acquisitions dropped about 37 percent last year to $1.75 trillion, less than half of 2007’s record $4.04 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Richemont climbed 2.3 percent to 37.3 Swiss francs after sales growth resumed as the rich spent more on Cartier necklaces and IWC watches. Revenue gained to 1.59 billion euros ($2.3 billion) in the three months ended Dec. 31 from 1.55 billion euros a year earlier, the maker of IWC and Jaeger-LeCoultre watches said. Analysts had estimated a decline in sales to 1.51 billion euros, according to the median of 17 estimates. L’Oreal SA increased 1.7 percent to 78.96 euros. The world’s biggest cosmetics maker was lifted to “buy” from “hold” at Deutsche Bank AG, which said the company will “reap the rewards” after investing in brands during the economic downturn. Home Retail Group Plc added 1 percent to 263.7 pence. The owner of Argos catalog stores in the U.K. was raised to “buy” from “sell” at ING Groep NV. To contact the reporter on this story: Adria Cimino in Paris at acimino1@bloomberg.net .

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Cameron Favors Barclays’s Varley as Bank of England Chief, Times Reports

January 16, 2010

By Abigail Moses Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) — Barclays Plc Chief Executive Officer John Varley may be named Governor of the Bank of England if David Cameron ’s Conservative party wins the election, the Times reported, without saying where it got the information. Stephen Green , executive chairman of HSBC Holdings Plc , is also being considered, the newspaper said. Barclays and HSBC declined to comment, the Times said. To contact the reporter on this story: Abigail Moses in London Amoses5@bloomberg.net

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Philip N. Cohen: Keeping the Mancession in Perspective

January 15, 2010

Too early for women’s victory parade. As Catherine Rampell has pointed out in greater detail, the new Census report by my friend Rose Kreider shows a change, but not a sea change, in the gender-and-family employment picture. The report is based on the March Current Population Survey, so we can compare March 2008 with the Great Recession March of 2009 . Of particular interest is table FG1 from those reports, which provide this information: The ” mancession ” idea isn’t crazy, since men have lost a lot more jobs than women – because of the industries hit hardest – but let’s keep it in perspective. Looking at the tables, you could say the number of married couples with children in which only the wife was employed increased by a whopping 37% in one year – from 1.4 million to 1.9 million. Yikes. But the graph shows how rare this condition remains: 7.4%. And the opposite condition – husband only employed, is four-times as common. Employed men really do still outnumber employed women. But we might want to start lowering expectations for the importance of that single number – which we may well reach someday – given men’s wage and occupational advantages and greater likelihood of working full time, while doing less housework and childcare. At least as important, the pattern of pairings – the commonness of more-employed men and less-employed women leading families with children – still skews way male. So Rosie can break for a sandwich, but if she’s aiming for a decisive victory it’s too early to rest on her laurels. Cross-posted from the Family Inequality blog.

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Paulson Asked to Testify on AIG Bailout Before House Oversight Committee

January 15, 2010

By Hugh Son Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) — Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has been asked to join his successor Timothy Geithner in testifying before a House panel investigating bailout payments to American International Group Inc. ’s trading partners. Paulson was invited to a Jan. 27 hearing set by Edolphus Towns , chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, about the decision to fully reimburse AIG’s bank counterparties for $62.1 billion in derivatives. Stephen Friedman , the former Federal Reserve Bank of New York chairman who serves on the board of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., has also been asked to appear, Towns said in a statement today. “Chairman Towns is well aware of the fact that President Bush’s Treasury secretary orchestrated this bailout,” Jenny Rosenberg , a spokeswoman for the New York Democrat, said in an e-mail explaining why Paulson was invited. The request widens the probe into what lawmakers have called a “backdoor bailout” of banks that benefited from the $182.3 billion U.S. rescue of AIG. Geithner, who ran the New York Fed when AIG was saved in 2008, agreed to testify before the committee after Darrell Issa , a California Republican, released e-mails last week showing that the New York Fed asked AIG to withhold data about bank payments from filings. The Federal Reserve and Treasury should be subpoenaed for documents tied to the rescue and attempts at limiting disclosure, Issa said today in a letter to Towns. Towns subpoenaed the New York Fed this week for Geithner’s AIG-related e-mails and phone logs after Issa, the ranking Republican on the oversight committee, called for the documents. Bernanke, Paulson “This committee’s investigation will not be complete until we gain the perspective of all the most senior government officials responsible for the AIG bailout,” Issa said in the letter, in which he called for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Paulson to answer questions about the bailout. Geithner became President Barack Obama ’s Treasury secretary last year, replacing Paulson, who held the post under President George Bush . New York Fed officials have said that Geithner wasn’t involved in limiting public disclosure about the payments to banks including Goldman Sachs and Societe Generale SA. “You know I haven’t looked at those memos actually. I wasn’t involved in that decision,” Geithner said yesterday on the CNBC television network. “I do think the Fed did disclose all of that information subsequently. It’s important that the American people see all of this information.” Bernanke and Paulson should answer, in affidavits, if they were consulted on the decision to pay banks 100 cents on the dollar for protection tied to subprime mortgages and if they knew about efforts to ask AIG to withhold information from filings with the Securities and Exchange commission, Issa said. ‘No Role Whatsoever’ Paulson, a former Goldman Sachs chief executive officer, testified in July that he had “no role whatsoever” in the decision to fully reimburse the banks. Michele Davis, a spokeswoman for Paulson, declined to comment. Friedman didn’t immediately return a request for comment left with his assistant Ginny Cser . Geithner decided to pay AIG’s counterparties for the full value of the underlying assets tied to credit-default swaps even though the bonds had declined in value, according to a November report by Neil Barofsky , the special inspector of the U.S. Troubled Asset Relief Program. The insurer’s rescue “provided AIG’s counterparties with tens of billions of dollars they likely would have not otherwise received,” Barofsky wrote. The hearing will also include testimony from Barofsky, New York Fed General Counsel Thomas Baxter and Elias Habayeb , the former chief financial officer of AIG’s financial services division, Towns said today. AIG said in a draft of a filing in December 2008 that it paid banks “100 percent of the par value” for securities tied to the swaps. The New York Fed crossed out the reference to the full payments in the draft, according to the e-mails released by Issa, and AIG excluded the language when the filing was made public Dec. 24, 2008. To contact the reporter on this story: Hugh Son in New York at hson1@bloomberg.net

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Mike Konczal: Notes on the FCIC Hearings

January 15, 2010

Wednesday, 01/13/2010 Not everyone in finance works for a Too Big To Fail institution. Many saw the crisis coming, more are disappointed with the lack of real reform, and many more would be more than happy to tell you how we can actually fix the financial markets. The room where the hearing is being held has cleared out (and somehow gotten colder) after the morning fireworks with the CEOs of the largest firms, which is a shame, since the second panel had three people who have worked closely within the financial sector: Michael Mayo, Managing Director of Calyon Securities, Kyl Bass, Managing Partner of Hayman Advisors, and Peter J. Solomon, Founder and Chairman of Peter J. Solomon Company. Anyone who is serious about learning about financial reform should stream the video themselves, but if you don’t have the chance here are the highlights. In the first panel the tone between the committee and the those being interviewed was curt and practiced and always hedged, with the exception of a few moments where Chairman Angelides tore into Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein. The opening testimony of this panel started with Mayo stating “The ABCs of Reform”: A is for accountancy, B is for bankruptcy, and C is for capital and capitalism. There’s a new lack of accountancy in the financial markets Mayo stated and new bankruptcy laws are needed for large financial firms that fall outside of FDIC. For the letter “C” he pointed out that capital to markets is like water to a house; if you turn on the faucet and there isn’t anything pouring out there’s a panic, and so must we must regulate these institutions like a utility. Capitalism is the other part of “C”, and the actual idea of good information used for decision making from markets has disappeared from the way our current financial markets works to keep prices and information opaque from people and investors. It’s very hard to imagine the Bank CEOs talking this way. Their testimony had a sense of “let’s keep our heads down and this too will pass”; in this panel the participants were taking on what is going wrong with the financial markets and recommending bold and clear action in response. Bass directly called for derivatives to be regulated, stating that 90% of them could be put into a clearinghouse and that a center data repository could be created to give this information to everyone, preventing another AIG. Though the bank CEO’s danced around this issue during their entire testimony, this was straight in Bass’ opening testimony. Peter Solomon talked about starting his career in finance during the early 1960s, when the post-Pecora regulatory structure of the New Deal from the 1930s was still in place. Solomon talked about how the newest capital markets allowed investment banks to move from their traditional lines of business to newer, riskier proprietary trading operations. This combined with all kinds of other changes in the financial markets from the 1980s and 1990s – junk bonds, globalization, mathematical modeling, increases in leverage, deregulation, and large over-the-counter derivatives markets – turned the largest investment banks into something completely different. He pointed out that that this all came to a head in the years 1998 and 1999. That’s when you have the collapse of the Long Term Capital Management, a small hedge fund that got itself so interconnected that it was too systematically risky to let fail and had to be bailed out. It’s also when Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act passed, repealing the Glass-Steagall regulation from the New Deal. Goldman Sachs went public, and Citi had a large merger. It set up the entire stage for all that would come in the next decade. ‘Christianity without Hell’ So where do we go from here? The three panelists gave very specific ideas about where reform needs to take place to get our financial sector back on track. The first key is bank leverage, how much money they lend for how much they keep in pocket. The higher this ratio, the more risky their firm is. Right now you can qualify as minimally leveraged at 25-to-1, which means you lend out $25 for every $1 you actually own, which is unmanageable according to the participants. These ratios need to come down for the largest firms. Fannie-Freddie are even worse; the participants claimed that they had a 95-to-1 leverage at one point (just 18 basis points of capital), a monstrously risky number for any firm, much less a large one. What about Glass-Steagall, the New Deal law that split up investment banking from commerical banking? There was disagreement among the participants, with a general agreement that it should be updated for the capital markets of the 21st century. Banks that are diversified with both commercial and investment wings survived better than normal investment banks, an argument that the deregulation was successful. However this leaves a situation where the Federal Discount window, the safety net the Federal Reserve provides banks to avoid disastrous bank runs, is being used to fund high-risk hedge fund like proprietary trading operations. So the suggestion is to update Glass-Steagall for the 21st century where risky operations are silo’ed away from normal operations. The participants thought the current tax structure for debt and equity was fine, though hybrid instruments designed to mislead regulators should have sharp lines drawn to avoid confusion. Buying equity with taxpayer money “is an abomination to the taxpayer”, and as such any money injected into institutions by taxpayers should be more senior than the most senior debt. The old saying “capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without Hell” was brought up by the participants, and it seemed very appropriate to the situation at hand. Systematically important institutions were thought to be identifiable by their lack of oversight, activities conducted and size. And any institution that can credibly claim to be so systematically risky that it can’t be allowed to fail then it should have leverage ratios that run it like a public utility. While discussing the over the counter derivatives market with Brooksley Born, it was clear that derivatives reform was one of the most necessary items. Derivatives need to clear on a central exchange, with a data repository. Solomon predicted the price of derivatives would fall quickly, in the same way that stock commissions fell back when regulation was brought to that market on the so-called “May Day.” This is why banks, who keep this money from bespoke derivatives, want to derail this without getting too many fingerprints on it. The committee ended with two interesting observations. The first was what problems were still out there? Mayo pointed out “4 d’s”: “deleveraging”, especially as all the bad assets haven’t been found yet. “De-risking”, as both consumers and the government are going to have to roll over debt with higher risk, “deposit insurance”, which is how are we going to pay for all the bank failures to come, and “deposit overdraft”, which is the ways consumers are getting hit by their banks. They also clarified that unregulated over-the-counter derivatives was the single greatest threat facing the economy right now. The last was an observation by Peter Solomon: rather than getting closer to the end of this crisis, he mentioned he felt like he was in the movie Groundhog Day, where it’s just the same crisis with the same banks each and every day he wakes up. As a concerned citizen, I know all too well how he feels. Thursday, 01/14/2010 The regulators failed, and the devastation has been widespread. This was the depressing theme of the last three of the five panels that opened the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, and it made for a very depressing series of statements and questions Wednesday and Thursday in Washington DC. The third panel featured C.R. Cloutier, a past chairman of the Independent Community Bankers Assocation, Dr. Rosen of Berkeley, Dr. Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com, and Julia Gordon of the Center for Responsible Lending. They gave all the numbers that you would expect to hear of an economy at the tail end of a devastating housing bubble and with double-digit unemployment numbers. What was surprising was the human element we got in these panels. Gordon talked about how the Center for Responsible Lending wrote a paper in 2006 predicting that one out of five subprime loans would fail, and they were dismissed as pessimists. Sadly, that paper turned out to be optimistic when compared to what happened. Gordon brought up testimony from the top four banks’ CEOs at the first panel, the part where they mentioned how they had sleepless nights where they were worried about the health of their businesses. Gordon told the committee that currently six and a half million people are going sleepless from worrying about the late payment they made or the foreclosure process they’ve entered. Some statistics that were entered by Gordon into the record: as opposed to the massive numbers you often hear about, the average subprime loan was a little over $200,000. Rather than the result of government interference or community activists, 94% of subprime loans were not covered by the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA). Gordon concluded by mentioning how the crisis has widened a gap in assets and has wiped out entire neighborhoods of their life savings, events requiring the passage of a Consumer FInancial Protection Agency. Panel Four was about as depressing as watching a late-era Beckett play: everyone sat around recounting their failures, with what seemed to be little hope on how to fix it. FDIC Chair Shelia Bair, Attorney General Eric Holder and others recounted all the ways regulators failed. SIVs and other off book balance sheet items? Not regulated. Ratings Agencies? Trusted too much even with their massive conflicts of interests. Shadow banks? Not regulated. Instruments that were took complex for anyone to understand? They turned out to be sitting time bombs. Over the counter derivatives market? Left unregulated. And one of the biggest problem, according to Shelia Bair, was the decision by the SEC to allow the increase in leverage of the largest banks. Tune in tomorrow where we look into what went wrong with consumer lending in closer detail, and also talk about where the committee should go from here. How Consumer Finance Failed: Friday, 01/15/2010 The final panel of the first public hearing of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission brought testimony from the state regulators as to how so many subprime loans were able to be issued given the current regulation, which is important as these issues are part of the motivation for a Consumer Financial Protection Agency. The testimony of Attorney General Lisa Madigan of Illinois and John Suthers of Colorado is useful here. So what went wrong? The failure appeared to be in two directions. One is that ‘shadow banks’ of subprime lenders started to appear, often as subsidiaries of the largest banks, which offered complicated loan products designed to balloon, weighed down with fees, and with special perverse incentives to originators to jack up the interest rate. The second is ‘pre-emption’, which meant that the federal government was actively working to undermine reform taking place at the state level. So what was so bad about these loans? The one that jumped out at me most strongly was the issue of “Yield Spread Premiums”: this is a form of broker compensation that has brokers paid more by the lenders for placing borrowers in riskier loans and with riskier features. A broker gets a piece of the interest rate as compensation; if the broker adds a prepayment penalty, often considered to be a trap to keep borrowers in loans that have gone sour, the broker gets more money. This gives him an incentive to find the craziest tricks and traps and get them into loans. The rest of the narrative follows accordingly. Lisa Madigan called for the banning of Yield Spread Premiums and similar forms of broker compensation, and it’s hard to think of a way to defend these things. These compensation schemes make brokers less into honest brokers and more into front line deception agents of lenders. So why didn’t state regulators step up and fight predatory lending? One issue they had was pre-emption: federal regulators came in and tried to block efforts at the state’s regulating the biggest national banks. I’ve discussed why pre-emption is important for consumer finance here, and it is interesting to hear live testimony about how much of an effort the federal efforts of The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision put in to derail efforts by states to regulate the largest banks. And regulating national banks at the state level for consumer finance would have been crucial: National banks funded 21 of the 25 largest subprime issuers doing business in the lead-up to the crisis. If the Obama administration is able to create a Consumer Financial Protection Agency, co-ordinated action on both these efforts, banning the most egregious practices that create the conditions for all the others, and letting state regulators supplement the federal mission, is essential. Round 5: In Conclusion So what did we learn? Over the course of two days we learned that the largest bank CEOs don’t feel a conflict between their underwriting and their trading process. There was a series of heated exchanges between Angelides, who has turned out to be an informed and effective chairman, and Goldman Sachs CEO Blankfield about whether or not Goldman was doing sufficient underwriting given their actions in betting against housing, and Blankfield thought there wasn’t a problem. This may be reason to look into a 21st Century version of Glass-Steagall. We learned some of the broad outlines of where reform needs to take place from the second panel: leverage requirements, derivatives reform and the silo-ing out of business lines. We also learned that regulators failed in large part because they became too trusting of business, too willing to look the other way and follow the advice of those they were regulating, in order to efficiently do their jobs. So where to go from here? Based on my own observation and talking to other panel watchers, it is very clear that some members are much stronger on the materials and the questions than others. Hopefully for the next panel those whose questions were vague or easily deflected by the witness will catch up, and those asking penetrating questions that were unearthing new information will be given more time. Luckily for the commission, both the Chairman and Vice-Chairman fall into the good category. We need more effort and investigation into what specifically happened in the Fall of 2008. This panel gave us some broad outlines for what happened in 2000-2007 in terms of the housing bubble and the way regulators were asleep, but actually getting into the meat of the moments when the financial markets collapsed is essential. As a personal interest, I want to see expert lawyers and government agents discuss both (a) the options available to regulators in terms of bankruptcy for financial firms and (b) the decisions behind the way TARP money was distributed. Let’s see Neel Kashkari, for instance, up on the stand. Overall the committee was far more effective than I thought it would be. It did not break into partisan bickering as much as I was worried; even as the very political issues of mortgage fraud was dismissed by conservative members it did not bog down the proceedings. I am more optimistic that something useful will come out of this committee in 2010 than I was Tuesday night, and maybe we can actually get real financial reform passed during the Obama administration. These posts originally appeared on New Deal 2.0

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Grant Cardone: How to Turn Social Networking into Sales

January 14, 2010

Social networking tools like Face Book, Linked In and Twitter are not just social networking tools but should be used as ways to create relationships and create real sales. This is a whole new world that is exploding with sales opportunities and not just a way to find old college buddies. Social networking is for more than just making connections but for making sales! Go into this with the idea that you are going to use social networking to increase your contacts, get them thinking and talking about you and then covert those contacts into contracts! Unfortunately or fortunately depending on who you are, most people are just using this tool to entertain and waste time. Getting started is as simple as entering your email address into any of these sites, what you do with after that is what counts. Focus on what image you want to create and how to get people to see your site and the creative ideas of how to stay connected with those people. Getting to the right person at the right time with the right presentation is what creates the sale. And that is what these sites can and should do for you. With the economy much tighter it is critical that salespeople increase the number of opportunities they personally create and not wait for something to happen. Social networking tools are transforming the salesperson’s sales efforts. First, understand this is not a place to waste time and meander but to connect with those that can propel your business. When I use social networking I am looking to connect with those that can either promote my business or directly see and buy my products. If my old college mates can help me great then go after them but that should not be your primary purpose when using these tools. Keys to making social networking successful for you: Before creating a site clarify your purpose. Build your site with your purpose in mind Always use a photo as people want to see who you are. Provide a list of items in your profile that substantiate you as a professional. Make sure all communication is professional and supports your purpose. When you communicate make sure that the viewer finds the information you are providing to be useful. Understand this site is like a living entity and it will needs daily attention in order to get you results. You don’t need to know anything about technology you need to know about sales. At 51 years old I am a bit handicap with using technology and most of my office are amatuer in this new world of technology. We actually experimented with the selling principles from my book Sell to Survive to see if those same principles would work with social networking. We created over 700 strong business connections on Linkedin in just two weeks. Our FaceBook effort was a lot easier for us and we hit 5000 connections in a couple of months. More importantly our sales grew almost 5 times in the same period. New announcements are very important in this ‘new’ world so we used the launch of our new Virtual Interactive SalesTraining Site to create tremendous interest on all our social networking initiatives. This proves that you don’t need internet skills to get connected, you need sales skills. You can check any of my sites to get ideas about what we have done with them to generate opportunities and create sales. Social networking is a real sales’ activity and a substantial way to keep your clients or prospective clients thinking about you, talking about you and ultimately selling your products and services. Grant Cardone, Author and Founder of Sales Training VT

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Steve Ballmer: Improving Government Services Through Innovation

January 14, 2010

President Obama deserves credit for his consistent efforts to ensure that innovation becomes integral to how our country operates. If the President is successful, our government will become more effective and efficient, and most importantly, will improve the lives of Americans. As CEO’s representing the broader business community, we commend the president for convening today’s forum on modernizing government. Through our participation in today’s activities, we stand ready to work with the administration and with Congress, today and in the future, to create a government that is transparent and responsive to America’s needs. The president’s forum is a timely opportunity to build on the excitement of last week’s consumer electronic show. We believe the many innovations showcased at the event strongly demonstrates the role of technology has in transforming every aspect of our lives from how we work to how we play. The positive changes in the last decade alone brought on by the information communications technology (ICT) sector have been dramatic. It is no longer the stuff of science fiction to carry a device in the palm of our hands that allows us to communicate, in real time, with a colleague, family or friend on the other side of the globe. The drive to innovate in the ICT sector is constant. That drive to consistently re-invent has transformed how the private sector and business operates. These technologies have revolutionized the convenience and effectiveness by which businesses can serve their customers, and have dramatically improved accessibility and the range of customers being served. Unfortunately, there is a gap between the government’s adoption of these technologies and the private sector’s. As the pace of innovation accelerates, so will the distance between the technological promise of the private sector and the practice of the public sector. Along the way, we risk losing billions of tax payer dollars, opportunities to serve those at risk and in need, and transparent insight into the operations of our democracy. It’s time to modernize government — streamline what works, and eliminate what doesn’t. Technology is available to significantly improve our government. We must find a way to apply that innovation and ensure there’s an environment that supports continued investment in this area, including developing policies that preserve America’s continued preeminence in this vital sector. Indeed, the time is ripe for a real public-private partnership initiative aimed at driving innovation and sustainable job growth. We look forward to working with the President and Congress to accomplish these goals for the benefit of the American people. Steve A. Ballmer is the Chief Executive Officer of Microsoft Corporation. Jeff M. Fettig is the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Whirlpool Corporation. Salvatore Iannuzzi is the Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Monster Worldwide, Inc. And Shantanu Narayen is the President and Chief Executive Officer of Adobe Systems Incorporated.

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Merkel Predicts `Difficult’ Time for Euro as Greece Strives to Cut Deficit

January 14, 2010

By Tony Czuczka Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) — German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Greece’s mounting budget deficit risks hurting the euro, saying the currency faces a “very difficult phase.” Merkel, speaking at a private forum hosted by Die Welt newspaper yesterday, questioned the fiscal discipline of other countries using the euro, according to a transcript posted on the German government’s Web site today. “The Greek example can put us under great, great pressures,” she said, according to the transcript. “Who will tell the Greek parliament to please go ahead and pass a pension reform? I don’t know that they’ll be enthusiastic about Germany giving them instructions.” German lawmakers wouldn’t be happy if Greece told them what to do, she said. “So the euro is in a very difficult phase over the coming years.” Greek 10-year bonds extended declines. They yielded 5.99 percent, up 11 basis points, or 0.11 percentage points at 12:08 p.m. in Berlin. That includes an increase of 3 basis points after Merkel’s remarks were reported. In Athens, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou announced plans to cut spending and raise revenue by about 10 billion euros ($14.5 billion) this year as part of a three-year plan adopted today to bring the European Union’s biggest budget deficit within the EU limit in 2012. “We will do whatever it takes,” Papandreou said in a televised speech to his Cabinet. “Our country can and is obliged to exit as soon as possible this vicious circle of misery. We will not retreat; we will proceed quickly.” The plan, to be presented to the European Commission tomorrow, aims to cut the shortfall from 12.7 percent of output, more than four times the EU limit, to 8.7 percent this year. That reduction will be achieved even though the economy will contract 0.3 percent, the plan says. The budget deficit will shrink to 5.6 percent next year and 2.8 percent in 2012. For Related News and Information: Greek economy news: NI GRECO Top German stories: TOPG

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Yahoo Said to Be a Target of China Hacker Attacks

January 14, 2010

By Brian Womack and Ari Levy Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) — Yahoo! Inc. , owner of the No. 2 search engine in the U.S., was targeted by a Chinese attack similar to the one that affected Google Inc. , according to a person familiar with the matter. Google said this week that at least 20 other companies were targeted in a series of “highly sophisticated” attacks in December. Yahoo was one of those companies, said the person, who declined to be identified because the information isn’t public. Google said this week that it’s notifying the other companies, which spanned such industries as finance, technology, media and chemicals. Google declined to identify them. The Chinese attacks also included hackers going after human-rights activists via their Gmail e-mail accounts, Google said. The popularity of Yahoo’s e-mail service could have made it a target, said Danny Sullivan , editor-in-chief of the Search Engine Land site in Redding, Connecticut. “People are looking for places to communicate, and communicate without the Chinese authorities restricting them.” Yahoo, which said it “stands aligned” with Google in condemning the attacks, doesn’t disclose attacks on its computer systems. Yahoo sold its Chinese business in 2005, though it has a stake in the country’s Alibaba Group. “ Yahoo does not generally disclose that type of information, but we take security very seriously and we take appropriate action in the event of any kind of breach,” the company said in a statement. Adobe Attacked After Google’s announcement, Adobe Systems Inc. said its network systems also were attacked, in a “sophisticated, coordinated” effort. San Jose, California-based Adobe, the world’s biggest maker of graphic-design programs, didn’t say where the attack originated. Google , the most popular search engine, said this week it would end self-censorship of its product in China. Depending on how the government reacts, the Mountain View, California-based company said it may have to close its site and shut down offices in the country. The Chinese government said global Internet companies are welcome in the country provided they obey laws that restrict their content. “The Chinese government administers the Internet according to law and we have explicit stipulations over what content can be spread on the Internet,” Jiang Yu , a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, said at a regular briefing in Beijing today. A separate Chinese government official today defended the nation’s right to censor the Internet. ‘Protecting Security’ “Effective guidance of public opinion on the Internet is an important way of protecting the security of online information,” Wang Chen, director of the State Council Information Office, said in a question-and-answer session with reporters, a transcript of which was posted on the office’s Web site today. Wang’s remarks suggest China will not grant Google’s request to allow unfiltered Internet searches, said Duncan Clark , the Beijing-based chairman of BDA China, a telecommunications and Internet consulting company. “Google.cn is toast,” Clark said in an interview. “Just keep pressing refresh on your browser and see what happens.” An exit would leave Google on the sidelines of an Internet market that’s larger than the U.S. population. The number of Chinese Internet users should grow to 840 million, or 61 percent of the population, by 2013, according to EMarketer Inc. in New York. That’s up from 396 million, or 30 percent of the population, last year. Google and Yahoo were criticized by U.S. lawmakers in 2006 for complying with the Chinese government’s restrictions on the Internet. Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang said in 2005 that a court order obliged the Sunnyvale, California-based company to hand over user records. That move led to the conviction of a Chinese journalist. Yahoo rose 22 cents to $16.90 on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Google fell $3.39 to $587.09. To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Womack in San Francisco at bwomack1@bloomberg.net Ari Levy in San Francisco at alevy5@bloomberg.net

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India Overtakes China as Biggest Palm Oil Buyer on Rising Incomes, Demand

January 13, 2010

By Thomas Kutty Abraham Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) — India surpassed China as the world’s biggest buyer of palm oil as rising incomes increased demand for fried and processed foods and drought reduced domestic cooking oil production, according to a processor group. The country imported 7 million metric tons in 2009, data from the Mumbai-based Solvent Extractors’ Association of India shows. China’s imports jumped 23 percent to a record 6.4 million tons last year, the National Grain & Oils Information Center said yesterday. “India is adding 20 million people, or equivalent to an Australia, to its population every year,” B.V. Mehta , executive director of the association, said in an interview yesterday. “That’s driving demand, along with rising per-capita incomes.” Vegetable oil purchases by India will reach a record 9.4 million tons this year as an import-tax waiver reduces costs and the domestic crop declines, Mehta said. Increased imports may extend palm oil’s 57 percent rally last year and pare near- record inventories in Malaysia. India relies on overseas supplies to meet more than half its edible oil demand and last week sought bids to import 30,000 tons of palm oil. The commodity accounts for 80 percent of the country’s total cooking fat purchases. Edible oil purchases may average 2 million tons in the first two quarters of the crop year that started Nov. 1, Mehta said Jan. 8. Imports in November were 712,677 tons, 37 percent more than a year earlier, according to the association. Data for December is scheduled to be released today. Ongoing Records “India has been setting a record for vegetable oil imports year after year,” he said. “There are no signs of that trend being broken.” A drought in half the country last year damaged rice, sugar cane and oilseed crops, pushing food inflation to near an 11- year high. Monsoon-sown oilseeds production in the 2009-10 season may drop 9 percent to 13.7 million tons, according to the Central Organization for Oil Industry and Trade, the country’s biggest group of processors. Palm oil for March delivery dropped the most in four days yesterday, slumping 1.8 percent to 2,510 ringgit ($750) a ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange. Inventories in Malaysia, the second-biggest producer, climbed 16 percent in December to 2.24 million tons. The record was 2.27 million tons in November 2008. China, the world’s largest vegetable oil buyer, may have imported 9.3 million tons of all oils last year, the China National Grain and Oils Information Center, said Jan. 8. To contact the reporter on this story: Thomas Kutty Abraham in Mumbai at tabraham4@bloomberg.net ;

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`Don’t-Be-Evil’ Guys Tell China to Google This: William Pesek

January 13, 2010

Commentary by William Pesek Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) — Sergey Brin and Larry Page are finally living up to their motto: “Don’t Be Evil.” It turns out that Google Inc. ’s founders have a conscience even after helping China censor cyberspace. Yesterday, the most popular Internet search engine said it may shut its Chinese Web site and offices. It’s about time, guys. It was always as distasteful as it was incongruous for the banner-waver of the information economy to help China keep its 1.3 billion people in the dark. In a January 2006 column, for example, I suggested we should be honest and refer to it as CommunistGoogle.com. Better late than never, though. Such a high-level rebuke is important because it shines a spotlight on how much energy governments expend on censoring the Internet. This conversation is about to get more traction than ever. It’s one that Asian officials from Beijing to Jakarta very much need to have for the good of their economies. This story has many facets. One is the “what-were- these-otherwise-bright-guys-thinking?” question. Google seems oddly aghast at discovering a “highly sophisticated” attack aimed at gaining access to e-mail accounts of human- rights activists. You would think that with their collective intelligence, Brin and Page might have known they weren’t dealing with Sweden. Google’s Gesture Another is how shareholders will respond to Google imperiling its future in the nation with the most Internet users. After all, few others have been willing to do that. Not Bill Gates ’s Microsoft Corp., not the techies at Yahoo! Inc. and not the engineers at Cisco Systems Inc. Technology companies tend to see dollar signs, not ethical dilemmas, when operating in China. The onus is now on them to match Google’s gesture. Finally, there may be diplomatic fallout. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called on China to explain allegations that “raise very serious concerns and questions.” President Barack Obama is off to a rocky start with the biggest holder of U.S. Treasuries. He may come under pressure to take a harder line toward China. The issue here is how the third-largest economy effectively ties one arm behind its back. It’s also about how many Asian governments ignore the consequences of policing cyberspace, much to the detriment of their economic futures. Greater Accountability The democracy-is-always-best mantra doesn’t help here. Yet a free press and unfettered cyberspace are ingredients for nations to thrive. In China’s case, the key to broadening the benefits of 10 percent growth is tackling official corruption and protecting the environment. Only greater public accountability will achieve that, and only increased transparency will provide it. It’s not just China, Myanmar and North Korea that block the Web. Countries such as India, Indonesia and Thailand aren’t above blocking sites or content from time to time. Lawmakers in Japan and South Korea have been making noises about new Internet-content rules. Google’s China move may prompt politicians to reconsider such measures. Transparency pressures corporate executives , too. Sure, muckraking journalists sometimes go too far. Scandals sell newspapers. The press and the Internet play important roles in keeping top managers honest. Last year’s safety scares involving Chinese seafood, dumplings, pet food, toothpaste, medicine and toys could have been uncovered sooner if information flowed more freely. Censoring the Internet It is hard to know how any major economy could create an indigenous technology industry while censoring the Internet. Pundits always said controlling the Web would be futile. Governments, they argued, would find it harder and harder to police fast-changing technologies and fast-learning bloggers. The opposite happened in China. There, the trend has been ever-tighter control, an evolving effort that was very much on display during the Beijing Olympics in 2008. China is learning, adapting and improving its censorship mechanisms. The Great Firewall of China is hard to beat. Critics will still find much to dislike about Mountain View, California-based Google. They argue it threatens everything from privacy to intellectual property to national security. And the way Google mines Gmail-message content for advertising purposes is a bit too China-like for comfort. Maybe the motto “Don’t Be Evil” should morph into something like “Don’t Be Too Evil.” Hats Off Hats off to Google, though. Shareholders won’t be happy that a China pullout would deprive Google of an estimated $600 million in annual revenue from 338 million Internet users. And it’s safe to say investors in Baidu Inc. , China’s most popular search engine, are jumping for joy over that possibility. It’s the right thing for Google to do. The company said at least 20 other large enterprises in industries such as finance, technology, media and chemicals had been targeted by hackers. The attacks, combined with increasing attempts to limit free speech on the Web, were an obvious last straw for Silicon Valley’s most-watched company. Technology peers should follow Google’s example and stop selling their corporate souls to China’s Communist Party. ( William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.) Click on “Send Comment” in the sidebar display to send a letter to the editor. For Related News and Information: China’s economic growth: GDPNTTLY GP On Google earnings: GOOG US TCNI ERN More Pesek columns: NI PESEK More Bloomberg columns: NI COLUMNS or OPED

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