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Chuck Collins: CEOs Rewarded for Tax Dodging Gymnastics

August 31, 2011

As the Super Congress eyes trillions in budget cuts that will undermine the quality of life for most Americans, here’s a stunning fact to contemplate: Twenty-five hugely profitable U.S. companies paid their CEOs last year more than they paid Uncle Sam in taxes. In other words, the more CEOs dodge their civic responsibilities, the more lavishly they’re paid. That’s the key finding of a new Institute for Policy Studies report, Massive CEO Rewards for Tax Dodging, which I co-authored. These artful dodgers include the CEOs of Verizon, Boeing, Honeywell, General Electric, International Paper, Prudential, eBay, Bank of New York Mellon, Ford, Motorola, Qwest Communications, Dow Chemical, and Stanley Black and Decker. Their average annual compensation totaled $16.7 million, well above last year’s average of $10.8 million for the CEOs of S&P 500 companies. Instead of paying their fair share, these companies spend millions lobbying for additional tax breaks and loopholes. Twenty of the 25 companies spent more lobbying Congress last year than they paid the IRS in federal corporate taxes. General Electric invested $41.8 million in lobbying and got $3.3 billion in tax refunds. Boeing spent $20 million on lobbying and got a $35 billion contract from the U.S. government, while paying a paltry $13 million in U.S. taxes for a company with $4.3 billion in U.S. income last year. Eighteen of the 25 companies aggressively use off shore tax havens to shift profits around the globe to avoid U.S. taxes. These 18 companies together had 556 subsidiaries in the Cayman Islands, Singapore, Ireland, and other havens. The offshore scam works like this: companies pretend their profits are earned in low-tax or no-tax jurisdictions — and then feign losses from their U.S. operations at tax time. Whatever happened to corporate civic leadership? A previous generation of CEOs would have been ashamed to be compensated so lavishly while their companies abandoned responsibility for paying their fair share. They would have been embarrassed to go year after year contributing little or nothing to the public investments that make the United States a vibrant business environment. Here are a few examples of these champion tax-dodgers: • Chesapeake Energy paid its CEO Aubrey McClendon $21 million last year but paid zero federal corporate income tax in 2010. Chesapeake is fracking the tax code, drilling it for every possible subsidy it can extract — while lobbying to preserve antiquated tax breaks for oil and gas industry. • Online retailer eBay paid its CEO John Donahoe $21.4 million last year while collecting a federal tax refund of $131 million. eBay’ 31 subsidiaries in Switzerland, Singapore, and seven other tax havens facilitate its efforts to move money around the planet as a tax-dodging strategy. • Insurance giant Marsh & McLennan paid its CEO Brian Duperrault $14 million yet collected a $90 million tax refund from Uncle Sam. The company has 105 subsidiaries in 20 off shore tax havens, including 25 in Bermuda — a favorite locale for insurance companies seeking to avoid both taxes and regulation. These super-moocher companies happily benefit from the privileges and advantages of doing business in the United States. If a competitor tries to steal their product or idea, these corporations rush to the U.S court system and law enforcement agencies for remedies and justice. The U.S. military guards their global assets. They use the fertile ground of publicly funded research and infrastructure to bolster their own profits. They create new products from a foundation of Uncle Sam’s investments in medical and scientific research and government funded technologies like the Internet. Our taxpayer-funded roads, ports, and bridges bolster their business environment. Our public schools and universities educate the workers these companies rely on. In fact 16 of these 25 CEOs attended public universities. They personally were educated with help from U.S. tax dollars. These CEOs profess to love America. But when it comes time to pay the bills, they’d rather outsource that job over to you or the small business down the road. Congress should pass the Stop Tax Haven Abuse Act which would limit some of these tax shenanigans. In the face of growing fiscal austerity, these companies should contribute to the solution and pay their fair share of U.S. taxes.

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Marty Zwilling: Entrepreneurs Need to Think Globally at the Start

August 22, 2011

New entrepreneurs who want to survive, and optimize the growth of their startups, need to think globally, and act locally, from day one. This approach, popularly known as “glocalization,” means you have to design and deliver global solutions that have total relevance to every local market in which you operate. Recognizing this is as much about culture as about language, ensures an understanding of regional motivators, cultural taboos and local customs – so that your solutions are ideally designed and marketed to deliver value that has genuine local relevance. What all this doesn’t mean is that you should roll out your product in every country at the same time. But it does mean that you think about the global implications at every step of the process: Pick your company and product names carefully. Don’t pick a name for your company or product that has a negative or totally different meaning in another language. Remember when the Chevy Nova required a rename, once Chevrolet realized that Nova meant “no go” in the Spanish market (not a great name for a car). Anticipate greater growth outside of North America. Not every international market matters, but some are larger than life. The middle and above-middle class population of China will grow from 172 million in 2010 to 314 million in 2015. Just the middle class in India is equal in size to the entire population of the United States. And aging populations in Europe and Japan will join the retiring baby boomers in the U.S. with demands for new products and services. Be ready. Reinforce your brand in international markets. An international brand will command higher prices and additional customer demand. This is called brand goodwill, a hard-won value resulting from the trust that a strong name engenders among buyers and partners. As you begin to saturate the demand in domestic markets, let your brand take you international at low cost. Balance your business between geographies. When buyers in one region start to slow down, look for buyers in other geographies to take up the slack. Companies with diversified portfolios can focus their energy on other global markets that are doing well. Speak the customer’s language. People tell me that a multi-lingual website can double your local online business in many parts of the U.S. These days, customers begin their buying cycle online, where they can get answers to their frequently asked questions, product information, and transactions — all in a language they really understand. Find global sources now . This may not be politically correct these days, but smart startups are looking globally to source their products from the very beginning. Software can be developed “offshore” for a low cost, manufacturing volumes are quickly available from China, and European designs have increased opportunities in every country. Selectively protect your intellectual property worldwide . At present, no world patents or international patent process exists, so you need to apply in every relevant country. Trying to get patent protection worldwide at the beginning is prohibitively expensive, so pick your geographies and timing carefully and strategically. These days the world is a single market. It is both homogeneous and heterogeneous. The communication revolution and the advent of the Internet has brought about a new age of globalization. Easier access to international markets is creating limitless sales opportunities on a worldwide basis. The result is that every startup company now needs to consider every aspect of management, sales and service on a global basis. However, to gain a true competitive edge, you still need to implement effective solutions first at the local level. Don’t try to do it all at once.

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Dr. Gregory Jantz, Ph.D.: Generation Vexed: Have Young Adults Given Up on Their Dreams?

August 22, 2011

A recent Los Angeles Times article coined the term Generation Vexed , referring to the young adults who are putting their career and life plans on hold due to this stalled economy. The article talked about pessimistic polls with fewer than half believing this generation will have a better life than the last one did. July’s 17.4-percent unemployment rate for 16- to 24-year-olds (traditionally the strongest employment month for that age group) has one 20-year-old saying, “You can’t reach for the stars at this point.” That really hit me because I grew up reaching for the stars or, at least, wishing upon them. As a kid, I vividly remember a top-hatted, tuxedoed little cricket named Jiminy from the Disney movie “Pinocchio” singing, “When you wish upon a star, makes no difference who you are, anything your heart desires will come to you” — a syrupy song, yes, but it won the Academy Award for best original song on Feb. 29, 1940. February 1940 was a “when you wish upon a star” world. Back then, happy-go-lucky movie-watchers could flock to cartoon films and sing dopey little songs with unrealistic lyrics like “anything your heart desires will come to you.” Not anymore. That was 70 years ago, before cell phones, computers and the Internet. To this current 16-to-24-year-old generation, 1940 probably seems like the Stone Age — as distantly removed and as currently relevant. Forget about computers: back in 1940 there wasn’t even wide-scale use of television; people sat around and listened to the radio. The country was still feeling the effects of the decade-long economic fallout known as the Great Depression. In 1940, I imagine that 16- to 24 year-olds had to make a few adjustments to their career and life plans, as well. Then, in December 1941, all hell broke loose, raining down from the skies over Pearl Harbor. I also imagine that the 16-to 24-year-olds back in 1941 had to make a few adjustments to career and life plans because of World War II. I shudder to think what this country would be like if the people back then had stopped dreaming, had decided that there was no point any longer in reaching for the stars. In 1940 and 1941, did they need to make adjustments, try harder, try again, and again, and maybe even again, to reach those dreams? Absolutely, but they didn’t stop. Those 16- to 24-year-olds who grew up during the Great Depression and saved our civilization during World War II kept going, kept reaching, kept humming that silly little song on the battlefields of Europe and the Pacific. They had the courage to nurture their hearts’ desires, and they clung to the belief that it was possible to realize them. Call it quaint, or old-fashioned, or unrealistic, but I think I’ll stick with the example of those who are now known as the Greatest Generation. To the current group of vexed 16- to 24-year-olds, who envision all they’ve ever dreamed of going up in smoke due to four years of a crummy economy, I say yes, it may take more time and effort to achieve your dreams than you thought, but don’t give up on your heart’s desires. If you want to experience what life was like for that Greatest Generation, you should talk to one of them in real life. Don’t put it off, though; the dreamers and wishers are dying out. We owe it to them to keep the faith and believe that the stars are still up there, even on a cloudy day.

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Julia Plevin: 500 T-shirts: Fashion And Culture At Demo Day

August 18, 2011

Black t-shirts were on sale for $25,000 at 500 Startups’ Demo Day on August 16. Kind of. Dave McClure, founder of 500 Startups , the Internet seed fund and incubator program in Mountain View, jokingly promised that when an investor wrote a $250,000 check to any of the 30 companies presenting at Demo Day, he’d throw in an awesome t-shirt that said, “500 Startups: We’re kind of a big deal” on the front and “#500strong” on the back. Coincidentally, #500strong was the official hashtag for following the event on Twitter. If you’ve ever been in a fully packed room with Silicon Valley insiders, you’d understand that there’s not much that can separate these people from their computer gadgets and twitter feeds. While the presentations were taking place offline, the commentary was happening online. The #500strong twitter stream was moving so fast it was like high school note passing on speed. When DJ Real, a waif hipster with blonde curly hair and an embroidered graphic sweatshirt, kicked off the event with some bad jokes and awkward dance moves (talk about high school!) someone in the audience tweeted, “I wish I had been late.” At one point DJ Real asked the audience, “Is anyone in love tonight? How about in love with your computers?” And so he droned on. To all of the negative twitter chatter, Dave McClure responded, “Folks we take risks @500startups — doesn’t always work, but we keep rolling.” And so commenced the presentations. From a proofreading marketplace ( Kibin ) to email marketing ( Tout ), from fine coffee delivery ( Craft Coffee ) to last minute event tickets ( WillCall) , the companies presenting ran the gamut from stuff for tech nerds to apps for common folk. All so different, but all the same in that they were all seeking funds in order to solve #firstworldproblems . And they all had great t-shirts. “Most people don’t have the problem of having to sort the hundreds of emails they receive everyday. I get lots of emails, but that’s part of my job,” said one venture capitalist in attendance. A problem with a lot of these founders, with their fancypants resumes and numerous degrees, is that they are living in their own bubble and suffer from myopia when it comes to solving problems that affect most people. Yes, PicCollage , a photo collage app dubbed the “anti-Photoshop” for its usability, is fun and Snapette , “the app for snap-happy fashionistas,” could help you find a pair of heels in SoHo, but these companies aren’t about to alleviate any of the grave issues facing society today. Nor are they trying to. Man Packs delivers underwear and socks (and condoms!) to men who can’t buy themselves the bare necessities. Their team t-shirts said, “More time to slay dragons.” Now men can have even more time to play video games! At least Alex Baldwin, the designer at Console with a Justin Bieber haircut, knew what’s up. “Who likes free t-shirts?” he asked before chucking a few shirts to the crowd. (Full disclosure: I snagged one.) Console makes it easier to rock out during the workday. “During the day we like to rock out, not fiddle with stuff,” Baldwin said during the presentation. When Ainsley Braun — the UX designer for website security company Tinfoil – took the stage, she asked everyone in the audience to please put down their computers and smartphones unless they were tweeting about her presentation. In response to this, CNET editor Rafe Needleman tweeted “…How cute. But no.” You simply cannot ask computerheads to turn off their monitors or quiet their keyboards. Braun’s plea for full attention may have come up short, but her shiny Tinfoil Security t-shirt turned some eyes because even nerds are distracted by bright shiny things. Braun and her co-founder ordered the t-shirts from a local guy who does silk screening. The companies are not obliged to get shirts made, but all of them do because it helps them stand out and be easily identifiable to potential investors. Somewhere along the way, t-shirts have become a thing in the startup world, making the savvy SV insider’s uniform of choice a pair of jeans, some new Internet company’s shirt (the lesser known, the better!) and probably dark rimmed glasses. T-shirts are often sent around the scene as a marketing ploy or traded like soccer players trade jerseys with the opposing team after a match. So choosing which startups to cut checks for based on the best shirts may be just as practical a method as any other that a venture capitalist uses. Kibin had some rad yellow t-shirts with an outline of Shakespeare’s face and his famous quote, “Be not afraid of greatness.” From.us , a company that improves the gift-giving process, had cool blue shirts with a drawing of a little girl hugging a big present. At the end of his four minutes, the presenter told the audience that his “cofounder is the one in the back wearing the same sweet t-shirt.” Clearly they were trying to make a statement with their style. Shirts aside, Storytree , a website for documenting family history, was quite captivating because it combined human-centered design with storytelling, two things that really can bring greater happiness to the world. Really all of the companies were founded by bright, passionate people and here’s to them all becoming the next big thing. But worst-case scenario, at least they can start t-shirt businesses as a fallback career.

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U.S. Postal Service Proposes Cutting 120,000 Jobs, Pulling Out Of Federal Benefit Plans

August 11, 2011

WASHINGTON — The financially strapped U.S. Postal Service is considering cutting as many as 120,000 jobs. Facing a second year of losses totaling $8 billion or more, the agency also wants to pull its workers out of the retirement and health benefits plans covering federal workers and set up its own benefit systems. Congressional approval would be needed for either step, and both could be expected to face severe opposition from postal unions which have contracts that ban layoffs. The post office has cut 110,000 jobs over the last four years and is currently engaged in eliminating 7,500 administrative staff. In its 2010 annual report, the agency said it had 583,908 career employees. The loss of mail to the Internet and the decline in advertising caused by the recession have rocked the agency. Postal officials have said they will be unable to make a $5.5 billion payment to cover future employee health care costs due Sept. 30. It is the only federal agency required to make such a payment but, because of the complex way government finances are counted, eliminating it would make the federal budget deficit appear $5.5 billion larger. If Congress doesn’t act and current losses continue, the post office will be unable to make that payment at the end of September because it will have reached its borrowing limit and simply won’t have the cash to do so, the agency said earlier. In that event, Postmaster General Patrick Donahoe said, “Our intent is to continue to deliver the mail, pay our employees and pay our suppliers.” Postal officials have sought congressional assistance repeatedly over the last few years, including requests to be allowed to end Saturday mail delivery, and several bills have been proposed, but none has been acted on. In addition the post office recently said it is considering closing 3,653 post offices, stations and other facilities, about one-10th of its offices around the country, in an effort to save money. Offices under consideration for closing are largely rural with little traffic. And in June the post office suspended contributions to its employees’ pension fund, which it said was overfunded. In its 2010 annual report the post office reported a loss of more than $8 billion on revenues of $67 billion and expenses of $75 billion. And even while total mail volume fell from 202 billion items to 170 billion from 2008 to 2010 the number of places the agency has to deliver mail increased by 1.7 million as Americans built new homes, offices and businesses. The latest cutback plans were first reported by The Washington Post, which said a notice to employees informing them of its proposals stated: “Financial crisis calls for significant actions, we will be insolvent next month due to significant declines in mail volume and retiree health benefit prefunding costs imposed by Congress.”

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Christopher Mitchell: Comcast: Internet Access Is Temporarily a Civil Right

August 9, 2011

As a condition of its massive merger with NBC , the federal government is requiring Comcast to make affordable Internet connections available to 2.5 million low-income households for the next two years. In promoting the program, Comcast’s Executive VP David Cohen, has made some unexpected admissions : “Access to the internet is akin to a civil rights issue for the 21st century,” said David Cohen, Comcast’s executive vice president. “It’s that access that enables people in poorer areas to equalize access to a quality education, quality health care and vocational opportunities.” It was only after the federal government mandated a low-cost option for disadvantaged households that Comcast realized everyone could benefit from access to the Internet. Sadly for Comcast, it has done a poor job of reaching those disadvantaged communities, by its own admission : “Quite frankly, people in lower-income communities, mostly people of color, have such limited access to broadband than people in wealthier communities.” This is why so many communities are building their own next-generation networks – they know that these networks are essential for economic development and ensuring everyone has “access to a quality education, quality health care and vocational opportunities.” And they know that neither Comcast nor the federal government are going to make the necessary investments. They need a solution for the next 20 years, not just the next 2. Comcast has a de facto monopoly in many communities. Modern cable networks offer much higher capacity connections than older phone networks using DSL . So unless you are one of the few Americans served by a community fiber network or FiOS, you probably have two choices in broadband: relatively faster connections from a cable company or relatively slower connections from the phone company. Private sector competition is not around the corner – overbuilding a massive provider like Comcast is very difficult, which is why so few companies try. Due to the limited competition, Americans pay their cable companies too much for access to the Internet. Consider that Tacoma residents pay less for the same services as those in Seattle , because Tacoma long ago built its own cable network. Comcast uses its vast profits to lobby Congress and the Federal Communications Commission to repeal rules that stop big cable and phone companies from slowing down competitors like Netflix. This is the rub. Comcast builds and operates networks to maximize its profit — a model that simply does not fit essential infrastructure like the Internet. Who would invest in FedEx if UPS owned the roads and set the rules for access? The question is how to solve this age-old problem. Even Comcast recognizes that its normal approach leaves millions behind. We can do better. Chattanooga, Tennessee; Lafayette, Louisiana; Reedsburg, Wisconsin; Windom, Minnesota; Cedar Falls, Iowa; Wilson, North Carolina; Monmouth, Oregon; Highland, Illinois; Kutztown, Pennsylvania; Spanish Fork, Utah, and many others have built networks that actually put community needs first. Chattanooga has the nation’s most advanced citywide network. Tiny Kutztown has kept an extra $2 million in its citizens pockets through lower bills over the past 10 years. Rural Windom kept employers in town when incumbent providers could not meet their needs. Smart communities invest in themselves rather than depending on big, absentee corporations. Requiring Comcast to provide affordable broadband connections is better than not, but continuing to let Comcast effectively decide who can afford access to the Internet is madness.

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Kelly Dern: Women Entrepreneurs Continue to Hit the "Glass Ceiling" in the Technology Industry

August 5, 2011

Yesterday evening, I was among hundreds of technology start-ups, entrepreneurs and VCs who attended TechCrunch #CrunchUp , an ad hoc gathering of Europe’s entrepreneurs. However, when I looked out at the sea of over 300 of Europe’s technology gurus, I noticed that I looked very different from the majority of the people there: I was one of a handful of women. The lack of women attending this event illustrates how few women work in the technology sector and how even fewer are involved with start-ups in general. I have a master’s degree from the media and communications department at the London School of Economics and Political Sciences, a department overwhelmingly filled by women students. However, judging by the number of women representing technology start-ups in Europe, very few are entering these positions, even though most technology start-ups today aim to take advantage of, or build new platforms for social media – suggesting that, if anything, these skills should be in greater demand. If women have the skills and education to enter into a tech start-up, then where are they? The under-representation of women in these industries suggests that despite the distance women have come in achieving equality in the workplace and in universities, that they still aren’t reaching the same level within burgeoning industries. This trend suggests that the “glass ceiling” still exists for women in the technology industry. The question is: why? When working with a tech start-up, there is a certain amount of risk and uncertainty that goes along with being a part of something that is completely new. At the same time, there is opportunity, creativity and excitement that you experience being part of something groundbreaking. Do young women not want to take on the risk? If they are just as creative, hardworking and capable as men, then why are they shying away from these opportunities? I am a member of the ‘digital natives’ generation; I grew up with the Internet and have only known an existence belonging to a networked society. Learning to use new technologies was part of growing up – for both men and women in my generation. However, even within a society that gives both sexes the opportunity to develop their skills, gender socialisation still continues – pushing women away from pursuing maths, sciences and technology studies. There needs to be a change in the messages sent to young women – one that reinforces strong female entrepreneur role models. Instead of idolising pop stars, our heroes should be Steve Jobs, Jack Dorsey and Caterina Fake According to a recent study by blur Group that asked 1,000 entrepreneurs who they found most inspiring, female entrepreneurs received only 3% of the vote. Some women may be shying away from the ‘geek’ image associated with tech start-ups. There needs to be positive messages that enforce the importance of entering into the these industries, or even forging one of your own. While there are only a handful of women at the top of the tech pyramid, we must not let this imbalance affect who will become our future business leaders. Female entrepreneurs must be more visible, play an active role in mentoring young women, and recruiting them to join the wonderful start-up universe.

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Steven Van Zandt: Debt Ceiling? What Debt Ceiling?

August 2, 2011

First of all, just because the Tea Party people appear to be generally uneducated, ignorant about the political process, ignorant about economics, confused about their own platform from the beginning, and indelicate when it comes to the craft of diplomacy, doesn’t mean they’re wrong. They’re right about our Debt being a bad thing. They are right about our Deficit being a bad thing. They are right about having a balanced budget. They’re even right about taxes (although that really wasn’t part of their initial platform exactly). I’ve always considered the government taking one out of every two dollars I earn absolute tyranny. Especially since we get almost nothing back compared to every other civilized country. Now Hedge-fund guys and other billionaires paying 19 percent is another matter entirely, but that’s an issue of tax reform and closing loopholes and no one objects to that. What the Tea Partyers are not correct about is connecting these things to the Debt Ceiling. But you can’t really blame them. They didn’t know there was one. How should they know what’s what when they, like most of America, look to Cable TV News and Radio Talk Shows as their exclusive sources of information? When people are looking for a place to point the finger after this disaster or near disaster they should look no further than the Media. When did their job become spewing out contradictory information 24/7, serving no one except for their aggravatingly plentiful and endlessly annoying advertisers? All they had to do was have an objective, truly knowledgeable expert available to explain the facts to the general public to help them understand that even though the Tea Party people are saying things that make sense emotionally, the real facts are these — If the debt ceiling isn’t raised, obligations will not be met because this money we’re talking about, which we don’t have and need to borrow, has already been spent. And all the Mary Matalins and Rush Limbaughs of the world that are telling us Aug. 2 is a meaningless date, made up by a Left Wing conspiracy, are wrong. You know, wrong. As in let’s separate the educated facts from the mindless opinions. As in enough with the so-called balanced reporting already. Tell us the damn indisputable truth! This time it’s the so-called Right mouthing untruths, next week it’ll be the Left. Makes no difference to me, I’m a staunch Independent and always have been, does it matter to you who’s lying? As most of the population suffers through life, barely surviving, disappointed and confused day after day, hopeless, wondering what happened to their strong and beautiful country, it is in the Media’s power to restore, if not some of our quality of life, at least a bit of our peace of mind. Since we can’t have real democracy, or jobs, or a decent wage, or money that has any value, or affordable education, or real health care, or more importantly real health, at least let us have the emotional satisfaction of hating the right people for the right reasons! The Media has become just another meaningless bureaucratic institution that exists solely for the purpose of keeping the population distracted and diverted by the use of a constant barrage of bad news, intentionally or unintentionally designed to keep us from thinking, acting, and organizing, but mostly to remind us about those starving children in Africa, keeping us grateful that our miserable lives aren’t any worse.

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Moody’s: U.S. Should Retain Top Credit Rating If Bondholders Get Paid

July 29, 2011

WASHINGTON — Moody’s Investors Service said late Friday that the United States should be able to keep its triple-A credit rating as long as Washington works out a deal that lets it continue to pay bondholders. The credit rating agency said it thinks that even if the nation’s $14.3 trillion borrowing limit isn’t raised by Tuesday’s deadline, the government would give priority to making interest payments on its debt and thereby avoid a default. Moody’s had warned July 13 that the country’s credit rating was in danger of being downgraded because of the stalemate in Congress over raising the debt limit. In its statement Friday, however, Moody’s said that based on its current review it would likely rate the U.S. debt as triple-A but with a negative outlook. That would mean that there is a possibility of a downgrade in the future. “If there were a default on a Treasury debt obligation, a downgrade would likely follow, even if the default were swiftly cured and investors suffered no permanent losses,” Moody’s said in its new report. Credit rating agencies assess the riskiness of debt issued by companies and governments. The three major agencies – Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings – have all raised warnings in recent months that they might downgrade the U.S. government’s triple-A rating. Such a downgrade would send shockwaves through the financial system. The government has had the highest credit rating for nearly a century. That rating has allowed the United States to pay the lowest interest rates possible to finance Treasury debt. Sherry Cooper, chief economist at BMO Financial Group, said the decision by Moody’s to back away from its threatened downgrade was “great news” and would probably make a potential downgrade by S&P less of a threat as well. “What is really important is that the likelihood of a Treasury default has fallen sharply as the prospects of a debt-ceiling hike in the next few days has increased,” Cooper said. “The U.S. is now more likely to retain its Moody’s triple-A rating as long as it does not default.” In its new report, Moody’s said that it would consider the government in default only if it missed an interest or principal payment on its debt, not if the government had to delay payments in such areas as federal employee salaries, Social Security or bills from vendors. “If the debt limit is not raised before Aug. 2, we believe that the Treasury would give priority to debt service payments and could thus postpone a potential default for a number of days,” Moody’s said. “Revenues would be more than adequate for some period of time to meet those payments, although other outlays would be severely reduced as a result.” Some private economists have estimated that the government could keep operating without defaulting on its debt payments perhaps as long as Aug. 15. The announcement by Moody’s on Friday followed favorable comments Wednesday by Deven Sharma, the president of Standard & Poor’s. He told a congressional committee that some of the deficit-cutting plans Congress is considering would lower the U.S. debt burden enough to allow the country to retain its triple-A rating. However, Sharma said that S&P would not make a final determination until it had a much clearer view of what package of deficit-cutting proposals Congress would be adopting as part of a deal to raise the debt limit. However, he said that previous reports indicating that Congress would need to make $4 trillion in deficit cuts over 10 years to retain a triple-A rating were not accurate. He declined during his testimony to be specific about the threshold, although he said the plan would have to make a credible attack on the U.S. deficit problems.

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Weak GDP Report Suggests Economic Recovery Will Be Painfully Slow

July 29, 2011

The American economy grew anemically during the spring, the government reported Friday, and prior growth was even slower than initially grasped, dealing a considerable setback to hopes for rapid improvement. Gross domestic product — the national output of goods and services — increased by only 1.3 percent between April and June 2011, the Commerce Department announced on Friday . Economists had expected to see growth of 1.8 percent. Worse, revisions to past numbers suggest that growth as far back as 2007 has been more sluggish than previously believed. GDP estimates for the first quarter of 2011 were revised downward to 0.4 percent growth, a sharp drop from the previous estimate of 1.9 percent. And GDP for 2007 through 2010, previously thought to have grown by an average of less than 0.1 percent each year during that period, was also revised downward, to show an average decrease of 0.3 percent per year. “It’s not a recession,” said Josh Bivens, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, in an interview with The Huffington Post. “It doesn’t panic people the same way. But it is a disaster if you’re really concerned about joblessness.” The numbers arrive amidst an already discouraging economic climate. At the beginning of July, a report from the Labor Department showed weak job growth and rising unemployment for the third month in a row. Consumer confidence has fallen to a two-year low , according to a closely-watched survey from the University of Michigan. And in Washington, a Congressional standoff over the U.S. Treasury’s ability to borrow money has led to widespread fears of market shocks, missed government payouts, and a national credit downgrade. Given these circumstances, Friday’s listless GDP numbers are particularly unwelcome. They don’t necessarily suggest that the U.S. will backslide into another recession, says Bivens, but they don’t point to rosy days ahead either. “I think we could bounce along for a couple of years at this really miserably slow growth rate,” Bivens told HuffPost. “So we’d never technically enter a recession, but we would still have high and maybe even rising unemployment.” Last month, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke predicted that the recovery would accelerate in the second half of 2011 , noting that high oil prices and disruptions from the natural disasters in Japan have likely played a role in suppressing growth this year. But Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder and chief operations officer at the Economic Cycle Research Institute, told The Huffington Post that the economy is likely to remain underwhelming for some time. “Today, I think if you turn on the TV, they might blame everything on the debt debates in Washington,” said Achuthan. “But the slowdown started a long time ago. It didn’t start today and it’s not going to end tomorrow… The slowing is going to continue through the end of year, at least, and that includes the slowing in jobs.” Consumer spending remained almost flat for the second quarter, according to Friday’s report, rising only 0.1 percent. “Consumers didn’t get anything. There was no growth in what they were buying,” said Achuthan. “Probably because they were just buying gas and food.” Not every indicator is trending downward, however. Friday’s report indicated that personal income increased 4.2 percent in the second quarter of 2011, after rising 8.3 percent in the first. Home prices are creeping up after a setback in February, according to data from the Census Bureau and the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index . And industrial production saw an uptick in June after two months of decline, according to the Federal Reserve . Still, two years after the official end of the recession, the economy is far from where anyone would like it to be. “If you look at the level of GDP today, it turns out with the revisions, it’s still lower than it was before the recession hit,” Bivens told The Huffington Post. “So basically we were a richer country in the fourth quarter of 2007 than we are today, with these revisions. We have not even called back all of these income losses that we saw during the Great Recession.” In April, a Gallup poll found that 55 percent of Americans believed the U.S. was in a recession or a depression — 10 percent more than in February 2008, when a recession was actually underway. Practically speaking, though, the recovery feels like a recession to many Americans. A separate Gallup survey found that about five million fewer people have access to basic necessities –including food, shelter and health care — than did in October 2008, when the recession had been going on for several months. In spite of Friday’s disappointing numbers — and all the disappointing numbers before them — a recovery is happening, said Bivens. “We really have been growing since the middle of 2009, we’ve just been growing far too slowly,” he told HuffPost. “The growth is real. It’s just clearly inadequate.”

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Obama: Time Is Running Out For A Debt Deal

July 29, 2011

WASHINGTON, July 29 (Reuters/Richard Cowan and Deborah Charles) – With four days remaining until the United States hits its debt limit, President Barack Obama on Friday told deeply divided Republicans and Democrats to stop bickering and find a way “out of this mess.” Obama said a deficit-reduction plan being advanced by the top Republican in Congress would be defeated in the Democratic-led Senate and was simply wasting time. He called for compromise and said both parties were not that far apart on spending cuts. “There are plenty of ways out of this mess but we are almost out of time,” he said, warning that the country’s top-notch triple-A credit was at risk. The United States will be unable to borrow money to pay its bills if Congress does not raise the debt limit by August 2. That could result in an unprecedented default that could push the already fragile economy back into recession. Fears about the health of America’s economy multiplied on Friday after a government report showed weaker-than-expected growth in the second quarter, raising the risk of recession. Obama spoke as Republican leaders scrambled to rescue their debt plan, which was thrown into doubt on Thursday night when some conservatives refused to back their leader’s legislation. House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner’s failure to round up enough support exposed a rift in the Republican Party that could complicate efforts to reach a compromise to raise the U.S. debt ceiling before Tuesday’s deadline. World leaders have been stunned by the dysfunction in Washington that has led the United States to the brink of default. World Bank President Robert Zoellick on Friday said the United States was playing with fire. America’s largest foreign creditor, China, has repeatedly urged Washington to protect its dollar investments and its state-run news agency on Friday said the United States had been “kidnapped” by “dangerously irresponsible” politics. Investors had been betting for weeks that Washington would raise the debt limit in time, but with the deadline now just four days away, markets are getting rattled. The U.S. dollar plunged to all-time lows against the safe haven Swiss franc on Friday due to debt worries and poor economic growth. In short-term lending markets, investors dumped holdings over fears about the talks, driving rates on Treasury debt that matures in August to six-month highs. The House inaction prompted Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, to warn that the country could not wait any longer and he vowed to take steps to move legislation in the Senate. Reid also called on Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell to immediately work with him on a compromise bill that could be enacted before the August 2 deadline. With just four days left, the Treasury has said it will unveil an emergency plan explaining how the government would function and pay its obligations if Congress does not agree to raise its borrowing limit beyond $14.3 trillion. But that announcement will not come until at least after markets close on Friday. The Republican-led House will try to pass on Friday a revised bill to raise the nation’s debt limit for the short term, a senior Republican told reporters. House Rules Committee Chairman David Dreier said the retooled bill would place tougher requirements on Congress for passing a balanced budget constitutional amendment. (Writing by Caren Bohan; Editing by Vicki Allen) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Anthony Tjan: Learning Optimism With the 24×3 Rule

July 27, 2011

One of my greatest mentors was the late Jay Chiat of TBWA Chiat Day, an iconoclast in the field of advertising with a constant imagination for possibilities in business and life. Jay embodied the three traits of a “lucky attitude” that I described in my last post: humility, intellectual curiosity, and optimism. Of these three characteristics, it was Jay’s optimism which was perhaps his greatest lesson to me. He inspired people to embrace optimism — inside themselves, and also, as importantly, in others. It is a gift to understand how to project, share, and inspire with optimism. It is an even greater act of generosity to be inspired by optimism from others and to be willing to receive it. The capacity to be a natural recipient of ideas and other peoples’ optimism is what makes for the ultimate optimist. You may be open to experimenting with new things, but do you truly see the good in something before the bad? The order of this thought process is critical: to try and see everything good in an idea before seeing anything bad. While most of us like to think we do, and would therefore self-describe ourselves as optimistic, more often (if we are truly honest with ourselves) we are natural critics (even cynics). Experience brings wisdom, but its collateral damage is that it can jade one against new concepts, turning many of us into Pavlovian skeptics. Whether we openly say it or not, we often think of what might be wrong with someone or something before we try to understand what might be right or good. The temptation and reflex for cynicism is usually more common than a natural responsive optimism. Cynicism is indeed the enemy of optimism. Here’s a practical tool for the skeptic or cynic in all of us: the 24×3 rule. The next time you hear an idea for the first time, or meet someone new, try to wait 24 seconds before saying or thinking something negative. This reinforces a foundational skill of good optimists and good leadership. That basic skill is listening. As you gain the ability to listen and pause for a brief 24 seconds before letting the critic in you bubble to the verbal surface, move to the next level and try to do it for 24 minutes. At 24 minutes, you are able to give more considered thought to the idea and think more carefully of the many reasons why it might actually work, why it might be better than what is out there, and why it might just topple conventional wisdom. And yes, you should also work towards the ability to wait 24 hours — one single day — before pondering or verbalizing the cons against something. Of course, most times this will not be possible. Our minds cannot compartmentalize so easily, nor shut off our past experiences. But the 24×3 rule is a type of reflective meditation for developing a more optimistic approach towards people and ideas. The simple guideline of 24x24x24 is just a good reminder that a prerequisite of optimism is to have a willing suspension of disbelief. This is not saying in any way not to be a healthy critic — it is absolutely essential in business leadership to be a critic — but rather that inspirational leadership and effective mentorship require a bite-your-tongue, wait-to-be-a-critic mindset and attitude. Start with the pause button for 24 seconds and stretch it towards being able to ponder positively for 24 hours. Mastering the 24×3 rule will make you a more enjoyable and inspirational leader to be around. In increasing your generosity to receive optimism, you will be rewarded with new possibilities that others have prematurely dismissed. This article first appeared on Harvard Business Publishing on July 26, 2011.

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Want A Good Job? Study Science

July 14, 2011

As a firestorm of debate rages in Congress over economic stability, the Department of Commerce released a report on Wednesday asserting that jobs in science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) play “a key role in the sustained growth and stability of the U.S. economy.” Although science and engineering workers represent a relatively small portion of the labor market, the report projected that between 2008 and 2018, science and technology-focused jobs would grow by 17 percent — nearly twice the 9.8 percent rate of growth for other occupations. “One of the real concerns is, how do you create a competitive economy and workforce?” Acting Deputy Secretary of Commerce Rebecca Blank told HuffPost. “We need to create skills that will keep us at the forefront — and this is a group that is crucial for the country’s long term competitiveness and innovation.” Science-based jobs are not only important for future growth, they have also fared well during the current sluggish economy. According to the report, the unemployment rate for science and engineering degree holders was half the national rate. While STEM workers experienced increased unemployment from 2007 to 2009, their jobless rate in 2010 was at 5.3 percent. The unemployment rate for other sectors was nearly 10 percent. “STEM occupations are really good occupations,” Blank said. “It’s important that people get that message.” The report, which analyzed data from the Census Department’s 2009 American Community Survey and the Bureau of Labor’s Current Population Survey , found that there were 7.6 million STEM workers in the U.S., representing 5.5 percent of the national workforce in 2010. Further making the case for the sciences, the report concluded that STEM-educated graduates at any level — whether high school, college and graduate degrees — make 26 percent more money overall than counterparts who have studied in other fields. And this remains true regardless of the fields STEM degree holders ultimately pursue. Even STEM grads who took jobs in fields unrelated to science, technology, engineering and math were able to command higher salaries on average. In some part, the success of graduates who study the sciences is to be expected. Sixty-eight percent of workers in the sciences have a bachelor’s degree or higher, and income rates tend to rise with additional education. The report noted that other factors independent of focusing on the sciences, including race, age and socioeconomic factors, play a role in determining income. Yet when the authors did a controlled for other factors, STEM workers still enjoyed higher wages, although they did diminished to a degree. Echoing President Obama’s recent push for innovation and greater emphasis on science and math education , Mark Doms, a chief economist at the Department of Commerce, told HuffPost that community colleges and technical colleges play a key role in training — and retraining — skilled workers, as well as preparing Americans for the 21st century jobs market. “A Microsoft-trained engineer does not need to go to four year college,” Doms said. But he cautioned the community colleges, which receive funding from state and local governments, are under threat, as states find ways to cope with diminished revenues. “They are firing staff, shutting offices and cutting budgets,” Doms said. Blank, for her part, spoke to the difficulty facing would-be science graduates — even at four year colleges. “[Those institutions] tend to be much smaller, with lower admission rates, compared to liberal arts schools around the country. So you’re constraining the supply of a group you don’t actually want to constrain.” The question, Blank said, is: “How to bring more people in?” “Perhaps we need more schools to serve people of these backgrounds better,” she said. “It’s something the higher education folks need to be debating.”

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Mark McKinnon: America’s Creative Artists Are the Ultimate Entrepreneurs: Let’s Give Them a Hand

July 12, 2011

America glories in its tradition of the self-made individual. Political candidates compete to be a friend to entrepreneurs, and policymakers, imagining the next Microsoft or Google, design laws to back the innovator in the garage. But, what about the band in the garage? Most of us don’t think of them this way, but the eager young band and other independent creators — illustrators, filmmakers, writers, musicians — are “the ultimate start-ups,” searching for the business model that will earn them a fair living at a time that their work is often shipped illegally around the Internet without earning them a penny. They don’t always get the same love that politicians or the rest of us direct at high-tech start-ups, but I learned at a recent forum on artists in the digital world that most creators have the same zeal for business success. After hours of discussion at an Arts&Labs forum called CREATE, I know that artistic entrepreneurs aren’t locked into a fading old model in which their fans have to shop in a brick and mortar store. They are determined to make the Internet a great tool for sharing their creativity; but they sure wish the digital revolution didn’t also make it so easy to rip them off. Evan Lowenstein, who scored several top 40 vocals as part of the pop duo Evan and Jarron, offered his new online venture “StageIt” as one example of artists’ entrepreneurial bent. The website offers live performances and other real-time interaction between musicians and their fans. Born out of his recognition in the early 2000s that his sales were falling even as his songs climbed the charts, Lowenstein says the idea is to deliver a “front row seat for a backstage experience,” and at an affordable price instead of $100 or more for a concert. From a business standpoint, he says it’s one more revenue stream for musicians at a time when the Internet has broken old business models. Lowenstein is convinced that his fans weren’t stealing from him, but they just wanted to hear his music and didn’t have many ways to buy it online. Ellen Seidler, an independent filmmaker who raised $250,000 to make her film And Then Came Lola, fought an extensive battle against online thieves, who translated the movie into 14 languages and moved around tens of thousands of copies without any compensation to Seidler. Despite the frustration from that experience, Seidler remains determined to use Internet tools to support future films. For example, she says one option is to provide incentives to independent blogs to provide legal links to films and other online media. Marcus Johnson, musician and attorney, says creators have to think of themselves as ” brand” and apply their creativity to business as well as artistry. He noted, for example, that his music is more popular with women than men, and that women, as a group, drink wine. His response was to work out marketing arrangements with wineries and wine distributors to drive traffic to both businesses. Another example of entrepreneurial spirit among creators is Kickstarter, a Website that borrows from political fundraising to connect artistic ventures with who might be willing to invest a few dollars (or, sometimes, larger amounts) to help new projects off the ground. That’s not to say any of these artists have identified the secret path to riches in the digital age, or that one model is better than the other. But these creators do deserve recognition as entrepreneurs who are entitled to a degree of the support that American policymakers offer to other start-ups. High on the list is government enforcement of copyright laws and other measures designed to safeguard intellectual property, with a special emphasis on shutting down rogue web sites that exist exclusively to make money from online theft. That’s the minimum we can do so that artists can fairly test new business models and find out the best chance to earn a living in the digital age. Let’s give them a hand.

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Watch: AOL Real Estate’s Interview With a Ghost Hunter (VIDEO)

July 8, 2011

Is there anything scarier than plummeting home value? According to Kris Williams, ghost hunter extraordinaire, there’s plenty to give homeowners the willies — and not just around Halloween either.

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10 Female Tech CEOs To Watch

July 6, 2011

While people are quick to characterize Silicon Valley as dominated by young men in hoodies, a band of women are emerging to make the industry their own. More and more women are at the helm of high-tech companies that are changing the world with innovations ranging from new ways to turn algae into fuel to robots that help children through physical therapy. As part of our Women in Tech series, we’ve picked ten female CEOs in the tech world to watch–women who are all using tech to radically change the way things are done in a range of industries. Take a look at the leaders in the slideshow below.

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U.S. Banks Finally Increasing Lending In Good Sign For Investors

July 6, 2011

Major U.S. banks appear to be finally opening the lending spigot. Second-quarter earnings reports due this month are likely to reveal a slight reversal of the long-term shrinkage in bank loan books, one of several positive signs for investors, bank analysts said. A number of other long-term clouds over the weakened banking sector may be clearing. Credit quality is on the mend, signaling that many large banks will bolster their bottom lines with money that had been reserved to cover losses on bad loans. And Bank of America’s startling $8.5 billion settlement with mortgage bond investors last week adds clarity and may spur rival banks to clear up their own legal liabilities from home loans. Another big question mark — how much banks will be hurt by a new law limiting debit card fees — was answered last week when regulators finalized rules that were not as ferocious as initially proposed. “We’re chipping away at the problems here,” said analyst Jason Goldberg of Barclays Capital. The earnings reports begin on July 14 with JPMorgan Chase & Co. Danger Signs Banks, of course, are far from being in the clear. Weak fixed-income trading and market volatility are believed to have weighed heavily on the biggest banks in the second quarter, while their net interest revenue continues to be pummeled by low interest rates. And low rates are expected to continue for the indefinite future. A growing loan book, however, could cover a multitude of woes. The Federal Reserve said last week that loans and leases in bank credit grew about 1 percent on an annual basis in both April and May, with the biggest growth — over 11 percent each month on an annual basis — coming from commercial and industrial loans. Real estate lending is still shrinking, and consumer lending, while stabilizing, is still tepid. Consumer lending grew just 0.1 percent on an annual basis in the second quarter, primarily from increases in credit cards and other revolving loans. “Banks are beginning to lend again and that’s a good sign,” said Timothy Ghriskey, co-founder of Solaris Group, which owns bank stocks. “There are a lot of issues out there that still have a potential impact on future earnings. This is going to take years.” Large banks are starting to loosen their standards for credit card applications, according to a Fed survey of senior bank loan officers in April. JPMorgan Chase, widely considered the strongest of the top three U.S. banks, is expected to report a second-quarter profit of about $1.22 per share, up from $1.09 a year earlier, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Citigroup will be next to report, on July 15, and is expected to post a profit of 97 cents per share. A year earlier it earned 90 cents, adjusted for 1-for-10 reverse stock split in May. Bank of America’s mortgage settlement will likely bring it to a quarterly loss of $8.6 billion to $9.1 billion, or 88 cents to 93 cents per share. It reports on July 19. Regional banks such as US Bancorp and BB&T could be the biggest beneficiaries of loan growth since they won’t have large trading businesses offsetting increased lending fees. Even Regions Financial , the only one of the 19 largest U.S. banks that has not yet repaid the government bailout it received during the financial crisis, is expected to see its loss shrink to 1 cent per share. It lost $335 million, or 28 cents per share, in the comparable 2010 period. Kitchen-Sink Quarter Investors breathed sighs of relief last week over two costly developments that answered questions long weighing on the banking sector. BofA complemented the$8.5 billion settlement of mortgage repurchase claims from institutional investors with notice that it would take an additional $11.9 billion of charges for other mortgage settlements, and write down the value of its 2008 purchase of Countrywide Financial, among other items. The settlement put a ceiling on what other banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo & Co , could be expected to pay to resolve their own legal issues, investors said. “Everyone can assume that Countrywide was as bad as it got … that’s the worst-case scenario,” said Nuveen Investments analyst Alan Villalon. On the same day that BofA announced its settlement, the Fed unveiled final guidelines for its long-debated crackdown on fees that banks can charge merchants who accept debit cards. The rules on the “swipe” fees, mandated by the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform law, are expected to shave $9.4 billion from an estimated $23 billion of annual debit card processing revenues in the banking industry, according to CardHub.com. That’s far better than the $14 billion hit that many analysts had forecast. New capital surcharges from bank regulators, announced last month, also resolved some questions about global regulatory requirements banks will have to meet. On top of a base of 7 percent risk-based capital that banks must set aside, the biggest banks will have to add as much as an additional 2.5 percent, depending on size and risk. “That’s been the largest overhang on these stocks, just the unknowns that are out there,” said Jason Ware, equity analyst at Salt Lake City-based Albion Financial Group. “On the debit card fees, the banks got a gift. With the capital guidelines, we’re starting to get some numbers we can use.” Large banks are starting to loosen their standards for credit card applications, according to the April Fed survey. Undervalued? The main thing going for bank stocks today is that they have been beaten down to cheap valuations, according to some analysts. Large banks on average are trading at about 1.25 times tangible book value, according to Nuveen’s Villalon, while Citigroup and Bank of America are closer to a multiple of 0.85. JPMorgan Chase is trading at about 1.33 times tangible book, he said. As Ghriskey notes, however, uncertainty about the economy and regulatory developments still loom over bank stocks. Trust banks such as Bank of New York Mellon , State Street and Northern Trust , which avoided many of the credit issues weighing on their competitors, are grappling with the same pesky issues that have dogged them for several quarters: low interest rates and few remaining opportunities to trim expenses. State Street and BNY Mellon also have an overhang of lawsuits accusing them of overcharging pension funds on currency trading. In coming years, analysts expect trust banks will have to adjust pricing for a number of products they sell, with currency trading likely taking in less money. Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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ShoeDazzle’s Online Boutique: How Kim Kardashian Plus Personalisation Equals Online Success

July 6, 2011

LOS ANGELES – The central innovation behind what has become one of the fastest-growing technology companies on earth was provoked by a pair of shoes – specifically, a pair of black-studded stilettos crafted by the Italian designer Cesare Paciotti. Brian Lee eyeballed the shoes, purchased by his wife at an exclusive local boutique, and could not get past the price tag: $1,200. “I was just floored,” he says. Why couldn’t she simply go to one of the big-box retailers that specialise in shoes at more modest prices? Her response generated a business plan. “She said, ‘It’s not the same feeling,’ Lee recalls. ‘”The lady at this boutique knows me. She knows my style. I feel pampered.” Three years after that exchange, Lee, 40, is the chief executive of ShoeDazzle, an online purveyor of women’s shoes that has managed to amass three million registered customers in the United States by combining the personalisation of the boutique with the low prices of the Web, while generating buzz through strategic associations with celebrities — not least, the company’s public face, Kim Kardashian. ShoeDazzle is on track to log $70 million in revenues this year, according to the company, nearly tripling the $25 million it harvested last year – its first full year in existence. Next month, ShoeDazzle plans to launch here in the UK, with a series of promotional events headlined by the company’s public face and in-house stylist, Kim Kardashian, as well as a slate of British celebrities, as yet undisclosed. The company aims to use London as a jumping off point for forays into France and Germany. Later this year, it plans to launch in South Korea, and then expand across Asia. ShoeDazzle has made itself into a massive marketplace not by bombarding computer screens with a comprehensive array of product – the favoured strategy for most e-retailers – but by personalising the experience of online shopping, and injecting social engagement into the proceedings. It designs its own shoes, and sells them exclusively, tailoring its offerings to the individual customer. Every month, ShoeDazzle invites its customers to enter their own online showroom, containing five new pairs of shoes – each selected by a virtual stylist, using an algorithm that tracks how they have responded to previous options. Women who connect to ShoeDazzle via Facebook (a major artery for customers) are able to enter the showrooms of their friends, and then chat in real time about what they see there – whether that pair of yellow ballet flats might go well with that dress they wore last weekend; whether those heels might be a good choice for a wedding. In short, ShoeDazzle has turned itself into a destination by using the modern tools of social media to render online shopping more like the shopping experience of yesterday, before the advent of the Internet. At the same time, it has harnessed the Internet to open the previously exclusive domain of the boutique to the masses, with personalised options tailored to the individual customer. And it has done this while making its products available for around £30 a pair, tapping factories in China to deliver the goods – strictly non-leather, and engineered for appearance above all else. In a time in which the American economy seems to have lost its mojo, innovation is frequently bandied about as the fix, yet the word typically conjures up images of biotechnology geniuses pursuing a cure for cancer, or robots producing nano-sized piece parts for electronics. ShoeDazzle is an example of how innovation can yield substantial benefits in more pedestrian areas of the economy. Much as Netflix in the US and LoveFilm, to some extent, in the UK have attracted millions of paying customers by creating an online layer that has tamed the dizzying process of selecting a film, and much as Pandora has gained adherents by helping people find music tailored to their tastes, ShoeDazzle has grown by simplifying and focusing the process by which women by shoes. Indeed, Lee and his partners have managed to craft a thriving business in precisely the sort of industry that is supposed to be a graveyard for entrants from the wealthy world, amid ceaseless hand-wringing over globalization and the spread of low-wage manufacturing to Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe. ShoeDazzle is leaning on high-wage American design skills and marketing prowess to rack up sales in the very industry that is often cited as Exhibit A in the case that China is destined to take over everything. Headquartered in Santa Monica, in a glass-encased office building named for the high-profile spawn of Silicon Valley – the Yahoo Center – ShoeDazzle now employs about 160 people, most bringing home north of £75,000 a year, and many earning into six-figure salaries. They work between pink walls and beneath futuristic light fixtures, a young-looking crowd in designer jeans and trendy shirts. They design the product, refine the marketing pitch, tweak the Web interface, forming the lucrative brains of an enterprise that has raised some $63 million in venture capital finance – most recently a $40 million infusion led by Andreesen Horowitz , a major player in Silicon Valley. All this, from selling shoes . Not everyone is so impressed by the product, or the experience. “Many of these shoes have ‘leather-like’ and ‘man-made’ uppers,’” sniffs a review on The Budget Fashionista , another piece of the social media landscape that is not working in ShoeDazzle’s favour. “In other words, they’re constructed out of pleather. Cheap pleather simply doesn’t last long, often scruffs easily, and doesn’t conform to your feet with regular wear as leather does.” The review recommends that women take their £30 and deploy it at “the sales racks of affordable shoe stores such as Aldo and Nine West, where the majority of shoes are constructed of real leather.” (“They are very high quality, for what you’re paying,” says Lee, betraying irritation with the question.) Others come at the issue from the other end of the spectrum, dismissing ShoeDazzle as too inclusive to merit membership, with the low price of its products presenting the very reason not to buy them: These are not rare items, no archetypes of luxury, not the sort of purchase that will provoke jealousy once the details come out. These shoes are not made by artisans in Italy, using hand-cured calf leather worthy of a Milan boutique. They are made for anyone with £30. In a recent post on the fashion blog, “Searching for Style,” Alexandra Suhner Isenberg, who identifies herself as a former designer for Burberry, rejects ShoeDazzle out of hand precisely because of its affordability. “The scary thing is that everything on the site is $39.95,” she writes. “So you can imagine the level of quality we are dealing with here.” On one of the many Web sites that have sprouted up just to discuss the phenomenon of Lee’s company , one commenter snorted that Kim Kardashian “would never be caught dead in any of the cheap shoes she’s hawking on shoedazzle [sic].” (For the record, Kardashian says she does indeed wear the shoes, in this video interview .) Lee’s wife, Mira Lee, says the dissenters are looking at ShoeDazzle the wrong way, insisting that even women of means enjoy snagging a bargain. She still loves high-end boutiques, and she is still known to surrender handsome sums for hand-crafted shoes from famous designers, she says, but ShoeDazzle allows her to cultivate her desired look on a daily basis, without fear of wearing out a precious item. “I will spend the money on the classic, must-have shoe,” she says. “But for every day fashion, I’m always in in my ShoeDazzles.” Whatever the merits of the product, the ShoeDazzle model is worth exploring as a case study of modern-day innovation. More than a decade ago, Jeff Bezos built Amazon into an online retailing behemoth by selling the very product that everyone seemed to think was doomed in the digital age – the book. That story proved how innovation matters in the less-than-glamorous aspects of running a business: crafting ways to reliably deliver huge volumes of product, winning consumer loyalty through satisfying customer service, making the Web interface intuitive and engaging. ShoeDazzle portrays itself as the next stage of this evolution, the part where online retailers replace the facelessness of their sites with interaction, reviving the features eliminated from the shopping experience by the flattening wave of early stage e-commerce. Zappo’s now sells $1 billion worth of shoes online, Lee will tell you, but the experience of shopping there is the Web equivalent of combing through shelves without personal attention at a big box store like DSW or Shoe Pavillion. “It’s really a giant warehouse,” Lee says. “People want to be engaged. They go to a shop with their friends and they have lunch. They are chatting about the clothes, asking the sales person, ‘How do I look?’ You don’t go to a store and look at pictures of 30 pairs of shoes and pick one. Women wanted this. They wanted something more engaging.” THE UNLIKELY FASHIONISTA Lee seems an accidental trendsetter. Soft-spoken, exceedingly polite, and clean-shaven, he sports a blue button-down dress shirt and grey slacks on a recent afternoon, making him appear far removed from the loud, attitude-laden Milan-New York-Paris-Tokyo set. “I don’t consider myself a shoe person,” he says, over a salad and iced tea at the grill below his office where he lunches on most days. “I don’t consider myself a fashion person. I consider myself an Internet person.” A lawyer by training, Lee proved himself with his first company, LegalZoom.com Inc., an online document preparation service that sells itself as a cut-rate alternative to hiring an attorney to craft a will, file for bankruptcy or dissolve a marriage, among other delightful bureaucratic undertakings. Launched in 2001 with $50,000 that Lee and a partner borrowed from their respective parents, the company now claims more than a million customers, while employing some 500 people. The company recently secured a fresh $100 million in financing from the venture capital giant Kleiner Perkins, Lee confirms, in what many observers construe as preparations for an initial public offering . After the fateful conversation with his wife over the black-studded stilettos, Lee took $1 million of his own money and invested it in ShoeDazzle. They rented an 800-square-foot loft in Hollywood, and set up shop with only three employees. They had a plan, a Web interface, a branding strategy. They even had an arrangement with Kim Kardashian. But their new business lacked the one thing at the center of their enterprise: They had no shoes. Worse, they had little idea about how to get some – a proposition more complicated than it sounds. The Los Angeles area is a hub for middlemen shoe traders that represent factories in China, where some 85 percent of shoes are now made. For weeks, the Lees drove around in a U-haul truck, visiting these merchants and trying to buy shoes. Without a sense of what would sell on their site, they sought small quantities – a dozen or so samples of interesting designs – so they could experiment and see what would work best. But the dealers required minimum orders of 2,400 pairs upfront. Eventually, they gave a small equity stake to a representative who agreed to use his Chinese factory for small runs, and they were off, launching sales in the spring of 2009. They also gave equity to Kardashian, whose involvement has been crucial to the branding strategy. Her reality television show and constant media presence have elevated her to the status of fashion icon among a mass audience, imbuing her sartorial decisions with the power to shape trends. Unlike the rail thin models who tend to personify fashion, Kardashian projects as a real woman, (albeit a particularly glamorous one with enormous spending power, and an ever-changing wardrobe, not to mention an entourage), making her an ideal representative for a company aiming to sell itself as both aspirational and affordable. The company draws heavily on the middle ranks of the American economy, people earning around $60,000 a year, and trending more toward African American and Latino communities – particularly in more rural parts of the country, where shopping options can be lean. Kardashian is offered up the bridge between worlds, delivering a thrifty-priced slice of Hollywood to every American enclave. “Kim is a very relatable woman,” says Deborah Benton, ShoeDazzle’s chief operating officer. Kardashian has also played a central role in helping the design team settle on new models. (“She’ll come in and say, ‘I really don’t like this shoe,’” Lee says.) Her involvement has established a pattern that has allowed the company to both align itself with popular trends and gain word-of-mouth advertising on the cheap: ShoeDazzle has become something like the equivalent of the old design-your-own-ice cream sundae shop for Hollywood celebrities who like shoes, opening up its design space to the ideas of myriad famous personages, and branding its offerings through these associations. In addition to Kardashian, Jenny McCarthy and Kristin Chenoweth have designed shoes – facts they have prominently mentioned on their Facebook fan pages, platforms that spread the word to tens of millions of people. “It’s just being in LA, man,” Lee shrugs, when asked how he has managed to cultivate so many fruitful commercial relationships with famous people. “These are all friends, or friends of friends. Being in LA, this is the entertainment capital of the world.” Publicity-through-association is a trick ShoeDazzle now seeks to replicate in the United Kingdom as the company prepares for its launch. Next week, Lee is supposed to attend a Los Angeles gathering of a UK trade promotion agency. He is going for one reason alone, the anticipated visit from Prince William and his new bride, Kate Middleton, and with one agenda item on his mind: “How we can design shoes for Kate Middleton,” he says. “Shoes that she will wear with the Paparazzi trailing her around.” VIRAL GROWTH Budget-priced glamour combined with social engagement has proven to be rocket fuel. ShoeDazzle has been shipping about 150,000 pairs of shoes a month, as compared to perhaps 25,000 a year ago. They outgrew their Hollywood loft almost immediately, soon leasing space in an office building in Koreatown. Late last year, they expanded into the Yahoo Center in Santa Monica, where they just arranged to knock down the walls to double the floor space. The aftermath of the Great Recession has proven a fortuitous time to launch a business in the United States. Most of the customer service representatives answering the phones and monitoring ShoeDazzle’s Facebook fan page – people who generally start at $12 or $13 an hour – are college graduates, some with degrees from Stanford and U.C.L.A. Office and warehouse space have been cheap. Finding high-quality Web designers and marketing people has not been difficult. The company has grown so big that it no longer makes sense to rely on middlemen to deliver the product. ShoeDazzle has secured lines at five different factories in the southern Chinese factory of Guangdong, effectively tapping cheap Chinese migrant labour to undergird white-collar creative jobs in Los Angeles. But the key to the company’s growth has been making itself feel small, like a familiar boutique to its legions of customers – even as it has tapped online social networks with millions of participants to spread that feeling as broadly as possible. When customers first sign up for ShoeDazzle, agreeing to a $39.95 monthly subscription, they take a quiz that generates a profile used by the algorithm to come up with appropriate selections. (“Which is the heel that you’d most like the steal?” reads one, offering three different models to select. “Which is the shoe that your closet most calls for?”) Each month, the algorithm refines that profile based on new purchases and rejections. The word stylist is much bandied about inside ShoeDazzle, as if the staff is discussing a real person who intervenes in the transactions, the equivalent of the boutique sales clerk who selects items just for you . “You get your own stylist,” Kardashian says in the video interview. “Celebrities pay hundreds, or thousands of dollars for a stylist, and you’re getting the help of a professional to pick out a shoe for you.” But the stylist is mostly just a feature of automation, an unseen force behind the monthly showroom, the work of the algorithm, augmented by the celebrities and other professionals brought in as taste-makers. The company’s programmers considered putting an avatar in the show room, someone customers could speak to via chat or voice, but they rejected that concept as too hokey, the sort of feature that would underscore the unreality of the interaction in a virtual space, as opposed to what they are aiming to provide: real engagement, and genuine utility. Some would-be customers find the engagement inauthentic and the utility dubious, complaining that the selections wind up far off the mark, rendering the very concept of the stylist a cheap gimmick. Alexandra Suhner Isenberg, the fashion blogger, took the quiz and was amused to find that ShoeDazzle had settled on “whimsical” as part of her profile – ” the last word I would ever use to describe my style,” she writes. Then, she found herself waiting impatiently for the 24 hours required before ShoeDazzle could serve up the promised personalised selections. “I guess that is because they like you to think that the Hollywood stylists are actually figuring out what shoes you will love, rather than just using some generic algorithm to figure out which crappy shoes they can sell to you,” she concludes. The selections themselves only drew more of her derision: “Shoe Dazzle’s ‘team of Hollywood stylists’ has no idea what they are doing, and most of their shoes are very cheap and ugly.” ShoeDazzle’s overseers describe their business as an always-evolving destination. The programmers are constantly refining features, recently adding a feature that enables customers to post videos of themselves and their shoes on the site. Customers gather on the ShoeDazzle Facebook page, which counts more than a million fans, and has indeed fostered a sense of community, an online world for thrifty minded shoe aficionados. People with Facebook identities that include words like ShoeLover and ShoeAddict commiserate over their inability to contain themselves while waiting for the next pair to arrive. “People want to share,” Lee says. “They want to share good experiences and bad experiences. But they want people to know.” PERSONALISED SERVICE None of this online engagement goes without monitoring by a team of ShoeDazzle customer service representatives who occupy cubicles inside the office in Koreatown. They serve as stylists of the moment, counseling customers who call or e-mail on their choices, in addition to the more menial work of tending to orders that have gone awry and managing accounts. This is the classic sort of job that e-tailers have shipped overseas by the thousand, connecting American customers with English-speaking telephone operators in India, the Philippines and Eastern Europe – people who work cheaply. But this is the one area of the business that Lee and his partners swear is never leaving American shores. ShoeDazzle does not hide from the fact that all of its product is made in China (and maybe soon in Vietnam, if labour costs keep rising in Guangdong). But Lee is adamant that he will never send customer service abroad, because the labour force in Bangalore and Manila cannot be entrusted to get the cultural references straight or gain the affinity with the American customer that is required to produce the sense of connection that is at the center of ShoeDazzle’s mode. The company is building a call center in the United Kingdom to field calls from customers there. The people who answer the phone at ShoeDazzle are encouraged to strike up personal relationships and to give out their direct-dial extensions, so the customer has a go-to person to call the next time. Every customer service representative has access to all of the records of the transaction, and can fulfill orders so there is no chance of being put on hold and bounced from place to place, and so each call – a complaint, a tech question – can swiftly be turned into a sales opportunity. Sometimes, the relentless marketing machine backfires. On a recent afternoon, Mary Courson, a relentlessly cheerful 24-year-old customer service rep –“Have a dazzling day!” she greets every caller – tries to mollify the irritation of a woman who has only just discovered that she has signed up for a monthly subscription and now wants to cancel. Then she will miss out on all the attention, Courson tells her. “You can get those showrooms just for you,” she says. “No thanks,” says the caller. But the next caller, Casey in Kissimmee, Florida, is eager for some interaction. The weather proves worthy of discussion – muggy in Florida, sunny in southern California. Courson’s childhood in Oregon, and lack of experience with Florida is greeted with interest, as is a mutual assessment of the Tuesday still unfolding: so far so good. By the time they start talking shoes, Courson has cultivated what sounds like genuine mutual affection. Casey is calling because she has sent back a pair of brown alligator-skin style shoes that she loved, but were too large – allowing a toe to slide uncomfortably into a hole – and she is eager to know how soon a credit will appear on her account. Soon enough to take advantage of the next month’s showroom! This, Mary assures her, leading the conversation there. “Are you getting excited?” she asks. “We got a little preview of the shoes, and they are adorable! You’re going to love them!” The next time Casey is ready to buy shoes, call ahead and Courson will be happy to look into her account and see what she has bought in the past (“I see you have the Latitudes,” Courson says. “They’re adorable!”) She can go and locate a sample of the old shoe to compare to the new one to ensure that they size the same. But before Casey can reply, the line goes dead, with Casey’s mobile the apparent culprit. Courson looks up her number on the screen and dials her again, producing a sound that can only described as happy recognition. “Oh my gosh,” Casey says, “I’m so glad you called back. I’m so excited!”

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The Newspaper Is Dead, Long Live The Newspaper

July 6, 2011

As the global news media shifts from pulp to digital, cries of “Stop the press!” seem destined to fade into golden, halcyon twilight. But Newspaper Club , a three year-old London startup, offers a glimpse into a future where paper and presses might just have a place after all. The online company — now more of a cottage industry than a members-only club — bills itself as a place to “help people make their own newspapers.” Users can upload PDFs of their own designs or use a custom web publishing tool to design and create their own papers on the club’s website. Print runs can range anywhere from one black and white 12-page paper (priced at £14) to five thousand colour papers (more cost effective, with copies running at 22 pence a piece). One of the co-founders, Russell Davies, explaines that Newspaper Club began in 2008 when he and some colleagues — all part of the British design partnership Really Interesting Group — came together to make a Christmas present for friends; a one-off newspaper that aggregated interesting writing from the web, called ” Things Our Friends Have Written on the Internet .” The gift was, Davies said, “Insanely popular,” and led the group to wonder whether there might be a business in making custom papers. Some near 600 years since Gutenberg invented the printing press , newspapers have, according to Davies, “Evolved into the right size and format. People know how to touch, use and deal with newspapers.” The group’s goal was make it supremely easy for people to print them — specifically, by brokering with printing presses to arrange for very (very) small runs. “Dealing with printers is not really easy — especially now,” Davies explained. “We wanted to have a minimum run of five newspapers. But if you turn up at the average printer and say that, they’ll just laugh at you.” After doing initial research, the group determined that presses often sit idle during the day, before the traditional broadsheets are ready to go to press. All time during which they’re available to outside jobs, and can print at reasonable rates. “When we started, we had to work really hard to get the printers to take us seriously,” Davies recalled. “We had to pre-pay and demonstrate that we could deliver stuff in the format that they demanded.” If the printers were initially skeptical, Davies said that the Newspaper Club has since earned their trust. “There’s been a change of atmosphere,” he said. “They realise that a lot of their traditional business is going away. I would be surprised if there’s any new newspaper group in the UK that hasn’t wondered out-loud when their last printed issue will be. They realise that they have to find other customers.” These days, Davies says his group represents “a reasonable amount of [the printing press'] business.” By his estimate, in 2010 the Newspaper Group printed 500 different newspapers, ranging from editions of five to 10,000. At present, the club ships globally, although all the printing still occurs in the UK. “If we had tried to start this in the US, we never would have made it,” he explained, owing to the fact that the printing industry in the States is “much more vertically integrated” than in the UK — where the printing and newspaper industries have been decoupled for a considerable amount of time. With the emergence of a new generation of digital printers around the world, Davies foresees a day not far from now when the group will be printing cost effectively from the States, and possibly continental Europe. But as successful as Newspaper Club has been, Davies is not comfortable with the notion that his group might rescue the printed word. “We’re not saving newspapers,” he said. “We’re democratising newsprint, in some ways.” In large part the content printed is not news but personal material (custom wedding and graduation papers), local (sports club gazettes) and niche (limited-edition art and design journals). To the pulp enthusiasts who see the group as nobly resuscitating a format for history’s sake, Davies explained that, “We didn’t want to be a heritage business.” Rather, Newspaper Group and its founders believe in the printed format, “because there are still some things it does better than anything else.” As an example, he recalled a customer who created a paper to protest the closure of a local school. “The organisers were saying that they liked the fact that you could wave a newspaper in front of peoples’ faces,” Davies said. With newspapers, there’s a “physical meaning that an iPad doesn’t have.” At the moment Newspaper Club is working on developing tools to give users more options for layout as well as content-sharing options. Davies says the group is “having initial conversations with particular newspaper groups” to potentially publish content and share revenues — an option that would allow customers to publish papers around a certain news theme, for example. Davies says that the printing press may very well go the route of the denim loom or the vinyl press: both industries that saw a sharp decline as a result of changing habits, but ones that have since rebounded in niche markets — albeit in smaller numbers. “I think with the people who print newspapers, there will be less of them — but the ones that remain will be really interesting businesses,” he said. “And it’s nice to be part of that.”

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Glen Pearson: Investing in the Future: The Dragon, the Eagle and the Beaver

July 2, 2011

Despite the hype, it was never destined to be a breakthrough set of summits. At both the G20 gathering in Seoul and the APEC summit in Japan, participants warily watched the birth pangs of a new world order as China and the United States squared off over the unfolding of the world’s economy. While the other participants, including Canada, made do with sideline meetings, each was aware that the main event between the two great superpowers could have far-reaching effects on every advanced economy. Canadians can be forgiven for experiencing difficulty in deciphering all the political rhetoric emanating from both gatherings. The Coles Notes version is this: The Chinese economy is clearly rivaling America’s. The eastern giant is second only to the U.S. in computer sales, but has a larger proportion of first-time buyers. It has more cell phone users than the States. A clear indication of how things have changed can be seen in car sales. As recently as 2006, Americans bought twice as many cars as the Chinese; now the latter are in the lead. If things proceed as predicted, by 2050, the Chinese will be driving over a billion cars — almost 50 per cent more than the current world total. The greatest distinction between the two economic giants can be wrapped up in two words: production and consumption. Most new Chinese jobs are in the production field, whereas in the U.S. they are in retail sales and services. Chinese companies are plowing their rising profits into increased production, and this is leading to new companies, more equipment, more technologies. While the U.S and Canada invested stimulus funds into short-term solutions, the Chinese dedicated almost $600 billion in enlarging the country’s ability to produce — railroads, power grids, and factories. While its capital spending is nearly equal to the Americans, their consumer spending is only a sixth as large. America, on the other hand, has primarily focused on spending and consumption, leaving precious little for the productive capacity and infrastructure required for the future. Recently we’ve read of the rebound of General Motors, following government bailouts, but what isn’t reported is that, in 2009, GM’s sales in China were up a soaring 67 per cent from the year previous and that it sold more cars there than in the U.S. But the kicker is that virtually all of these cars were made in China itself, not America. GM received domestic assistance at the same time it was profiting significantly overseas. Increasingly, American companies are moving hefty portions of their operations away from the U.S. and into China. The issue at the summit meetings was really one of currency and how the Chinese government controlled its flow. China wants to increase more jobs domestically and so it is investing heavily in production instead of consumption. It is to their advantage to keep their yuan undervalued because if the currency rose, Chinese exports would become more expensive in other countries and we’d buy fewer of their products. All this has caused a huge trade imbalance between the two countries, benefiting China and hindering the U.S. recovery. Obama’s attempts to challenge the Chinese to permit their currency to free-float were rebuffed by the Chinese leadership, leading to the mixed outcome of both summits. There are lessons for Canada in this, but we appear not to be listening. With reports emerging that the Canadian stimulus funds haven’t produced the effect hoped for, we might have missed a great opportunity to invest in this country’s future if we had only put our money where our infrastructure is — we missed the productivity quotient, opting instead for quick fixes that will eventually leave us with massive infrastructure problems. China and America differ in how they have permitted money to flow in their economies. While the Chinese ploughed excess money into huge capital projects, the U.S., through ongoing rounds of tax cuts, saw their wealth move steadily up to the benefit of the top 10 per cent of wealthy citizens. It’s now more clear who gets the better deal. Canada is currently running the risk of missing future productivity for the sake of present domestic political advantage. Stephen Harper watched from the sidelines at the summits, but soon enough he’ll have to enter centre stage with a limping stimulus investment and no real plan for future productivity. His next budget will have to address that reality or our fate will look more like that south of the border than the burgeoning economy that is China.

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Eric K. Clemons: Why Is There Still Litigation in Third Party Payer Distribution Systems in Air Travel

June 29, 2011

Regulation in Travel Distribution A spate of lawsuits is emerging between the travel industry’s “Global Distribution Systems” (“GDS”) and their customers. The first two lawsuits were filed by US Airways and American Airlines ; other lawsuits, possibly including a federal antitrust suit brought by the Department of Justice, may follow. Indeed, on May 20, 2011, American Airlines issued a statement announcing that it is cooperating in an investigation with the United States Department of Justice (“DoJ”) regarding whether the GDSs have violated antitrust law, and American is currently suing Travelport, Orbitz, and Sabre for alleged antitrust violations. These actions are interesting for several reasons. First, the conflict upon which these disputes is based has profound implications for the cost and convenience of travel within the United States, especially travel by individual leisure passengers. Second, it had been an article of faith among the netarati that the kind of abuses alleged in these disputes simply could not arise, because the transparency and open access of the net had rendered this kind of dispute, and the alleged abuse of power that the disputes represent, obsolete. Third, because of the widely held belief that this type of abuse is no longer possible, there is a significant danger that the wrong decision may be reached in one or more of these cases. Finally, but perhaps most importantly, the analysis we present here has widespread implications in Internet regulation. It suggests that antitrust may not be the most appropriate way to approach disputes in online digital distribution businesses. An alternative measure, third party payer system power , may be more applicable in adjudicating these disputes, than “share of relevant market” or “essential facilities” arguments offered in antitrust litigation. We have argued elsewhere that the unique structure of online distribution systems may give them the power traditionally associated with monopoly, even in the presence of what appears to be a competitive marketplace. The issue of third party payer power in online distribution may be especially helpful in rethinking the regulation of online businesses since antitrust litigation has fallen out of power in the US. Likewise, the essential facilities doctrine increasingly is viewed as inappropriate or irrelevant to antitrust regulation. And yet there does appear to be a growing body of disputes and competitive harm that require some integrating theory for their resolution, and third party payer mechanisms may provide this integrating theory. The FTC has recently launched an investigation into Google’s business practices; whether you are an avid fan of Google and believe this is an assault on capitalism , or believe that the investigation is long overdue, the resolution of these third party payer disputes in air travel will have bearing on any future litigation involving Google. The present story addresses the history of distribution, power, and abuse of power in airline reservations, and an explanation for why the abuses that required regulation in 1984 were believed to be impossible in an internet age. Indeed, the likelihood of abuse seemed so remote that the industry was deregulated in 2004. A subsequent piece, to be published later this week, explains why the distribution of airline reservations has not evolved as expected, and why reregulation may be required. Analysis of the Changing Role of Power in Travel Distribution The essence of the disputes is very simple. US Air and American have products and services that they want to offer travel agents that the GDSs are currently not technically equipped to offer; the GDSs’ “full content” requirement prohibits airlines from offering any product to a travel agency unless that product is already available through the GDSs. This limits the options available to US travelers who book through agencies. Additionally, many airlines would like to offer their services through some form of direct connection to agencies, which would greatly reduce their airlines’ distribution costs without affecting the quality of service provided to customers by their agencies; a range of contractual restrictions and contractual incentives limits airlines’ ability to offer direct connection and agencies’ willingness to accept them. The US Airways complaint against Sabre, Inc. (“Sabre”) alleges, among other things, that Sabre has engaged in behavior to restrict US Airways’ ability to use lower-cost and more efficient means of connecting with travel agencies, including entering into exclusivity agreements with travel agents, charging artificially high prices to US Airways, and restricting US Airways ability to offer products without first offering them on Sabre. The American Airlines complaint alleges, among other things, similar allegations of exclusivity contracts and artificially high prices and alleges that Travelport and others retaliated against American Airlines for offering direct connect technology to travel agents by doubling American Airlines’ booking fees for international reservations to make them appear more expensive. In the former case, US Airways had entered into a contract with Sabre, and subsequently filed its action against Sabre. American Airlines, on the other hand, filed its actions following unsuccessful negotiations with Orbitz regarding its bookings, which allegedly resulted in Travelport and Sabre retaliating against American Airlines. American Airlines continues to work with Travelport and Sabre during the dispute; indeed, for reasons described below, it really must remain present in both systems whether or not it is able to negotiate terms it considers commercially reasonable. Indeed, excessive fees are one of the hallmarks of third-party payer systems. As we have described elsewhere, over the course of more than two decades of research, the prices charged by third party payer distribution systems are generally able to escape the discipline of the market, even in the absence of traditional monopoly power. Travel agents are paid to use GDSs, and they are happy to use them. Airlines pay to be included in distribution systems, not only to be found, but to not be not found. As long as agencies still account for a significant portion of travel bookings, and they do, and as long as agencies use GDSs, then most mainstream airlines really do not have a choice and really must pay the fees these GDSs charge. For example, American Airlines has alleged that it pays tens of millions in booking fees to GDSs, which are shared with the travel agents that use the GDS’ systems. This is alleged to result in travel agents frequently selecting the GDSs that charge the highest booking fees to airlines and thus are able to provide the highest payments to the agencies; this is, of course, the very opposite of price competition. In summary, the travel agents receive the service more free than free, subsidized out of the millions of dollars that airlines pay in booking fees. Why doesn’t the traveler object? Quite simply, travelers do not directly pay the fees that the airlines are charged, and indeed do not even see them; most travelers are not aware either of these disputes, or of the fees that are the basis of them. Why doesn’t American or US Airways boycott the GDSs? Traditional full service airlines like American and US Airways still rely heavily on corporate travelers, they therefore still rely heavily on agencies, and they cannot survive the loss of business that they would suffer from vanishing from one or more GDSs. But how can the GDSs still have the power and the relevance to force their will on an airline? How can they even be worthy of a legal complaint? How can any of this still be possible? Isn’t this a vestige of pre-internet technology and pre-internet business models, without relevance today? Don’t airlines have websites that customers can use to directly buy tickets? Don’t Orbitz and Travelocity represent alternatives? Don’t agencies represent alternatives? Well … not exactly. Orbitz, Travelocity, and traditional travel agencies use the GDSs, and indeed most use only one GDS. For example, Orbitz has entered into an exclusivity contract with Travelport, whereby Orbitz is required to use Travelport “exclusively” as its GDS provider for North American air travel bookings through 2014. An airline that vanishes from one GDS vanishes from all of the agencies that use that GDS. These GDSs represent what we have previously called parallel monopolies , and even in the absence of traditional monopoly market share, a GDS can cause any single airline to vanish from a share of the agencies, causing enormous harm. For most airlines, direct distribution has not succeeded because customers still use agencies (on or off line) and agencies still use GDSs. Let’s see why. But first, a brief historical background on previous disputes in this industry provides useful insight into how the current disputes may unfold. Background on Reservations Systems and Distribution Systems In the 1980s, long before the internet, customers used travel agencies to book tickets, and travel agencies used Computerized Reservations Systems (CRS) to search for flights, based on times and fares. Customers had no alternative to their agencies, and agencies had no alternative to a CRS. Moreover, the CRSs paid the agencies to keep them happy, the vast majority of flights were booked through CRSs, and CRSs had almost unlimited power to charge airlines for listing in the CRS database. Indeed, in the early 1980s American Airlines made more money selling Delta’s flights through Sabre than Delta did operating them, and United earned more selling other airlines’ flights through Apollo than it earned operating an airline. This is an early example of what we now call a third party payer business model : Travel agents (party 1) used the CRSs (party 2) to find airlines (party 3). The agencies were happy (they received free service and were actually paid for their use of CRSs) and they seldom switched CRS vendors. Airlines needed to be found, and so they (party 3) paid CRSs almost whatever they demanded, not so much “to be found” as “to not be not found.” It was not necessary that any CRS have monopoly power to make this business model work, as long as each CRS operated as near monopoly for the agencies it served; if a CRS droped an airline, then the agencies that use only that CRS will no longer see the airline’s flights and bookings through that CRS will almost vanish. The impact of this can be catastrophic for the airline. For example, in the 1980s, when Sabre dropped Braniff’s flights, and when Apollo dropped Frontier’s flights, each airline lost enough business to be forced into bankruptcy, even though each airline could still be booked by agencies served by the other CRSs. Ultimately, the court decided that the power of Sabre and Apollo was excessive and that it had been abused, and the travel distribution industry became heavily regulated. This is explained in several of our previous papers (see, for example, our paper prepared for the Searle Center Conference on the Economics and Law of Internet Search). The structure of the industry, as it existed in 1984 (that is, before CRS regulation), is shown below in figure 1. Figure 1–The structure of travel distribution, as it appeared in 1984, with most customers using agencies and most agencies relying on a single CRS. Of course, in an Internet age, this business model now appears totally anachronistic, toothless, and without power. Customers do not need to use agencies; they can go directly to the airlines own booking systems. In theory, customers will go directly to airlines to arrange bookings. Similarly, in theory, agencies do not need to use Global Distribution Systems (The GDSs that replaced CRSs); they, too, can go directly to the airlines’ own booking systems. The new structure of travel distribution was expected to look as shown in figure 2. Agencies can bypass GDSs, and customers can bypass agencies and GDSs; how could any residual power exist? So we all — consumer advocates, regulators, airline executives, and industry researchers alike — stopped worrying. Figure 2.–The structure of travel distribution, as it was expected to look today, with airlines appealing both to agencies and directly to customers, bypassing GDSs. The new yellow lines, not present in figure 1, represent customers bypassing GDSs and agencies by booking directly from airlines’ own websites. The new blue lines, also absent from figure 1, represent agencies bypassing GDSs and booking directly from airlines Many of the red lines, representing usage of traditional distribution systems, have been eliminated.

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Jim Randel: How Debt Collectors Play Unfair

June 27, 2011

Like it or not, your credit score is hugely important. One expert told me that even small differentials in credit scores can — over time — create large differences in net worth. Since a credit score will affect the cost at which you can borrow money (the interest rate), over a period of years the difference in interest rate will have a major impact on your disposable income and thus your assets. It is well known that the #1 way to maintain a good credit score is to pay your bills on time. Credit experts also know that your score is heavily weighted toward RECENT payment history — a debt or late payment that is a few years old, for example, affects your credit score much less than any such event within the preceding six months. But, here is where you can get tripped up (unfairly so): Let’s say that on January 1, 2010 John Doe owed ABC Bank $1,000 and made a decision that he could not pay the debt. For about a year, that non-payment will have a big impact on John Doe’s credit score. Now it is January 1, 2011 and that debt is a year old. ABC Bank sells the debt to DEF Collections for $.10 on the dollar. Now here is the RUB: DEF Collections reports the debt to the big three credit reporting agencies — such that it appears as a NEW debt/non-payment. DEF Collections should not be doing that but the laws are not clear enough and enforcement is very spotty. The upshot to John Doe is a new CURRENT hit on his credit report and thus a big SMACK on his credit score. If John Doe is aware of what is happening, he can make a claim to the credit reporting agencies and they should remove the DEF claim. But, there is most often a big gap between what happens, and what consumers know or do. So, if you are being chased by a collection agency, check your credit report to ascertain whether any old debts are showing as NEW debts and thereby unfairly impacting your credit score. Jim Randel is the founder of Rand Media Co. and the primary author of The Skinny On Book series. His latest publication titled Street Smarts teaches 125 critical life skills that are not traditionally taught at universities.

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Why It’s Hard To Predict Bubbles

June 24, 2011

The recent sky-high IPO of LinkedIn, along with eye-popping valuations for other social networking and shopping companies, has raised concerns that we are now in the midst of another technology bubble, this one fueled by excessive investor enthusiasm for all things social. No sooner have these concerns been raised, however, than they have been countered by an array of arguments, all of which are variations on the basic claim that this internet boom is unlike the previous one. This debate illustrates one of the central causes of financial bubbles: Although after the fact it seems obvious that prices were irrational and an unhappy end was inevitable, bubbles are neither obvious nor inevitable at the time.

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Yahoo CEO Blasted By Shareholder, Called ‘Lame Duck’

June 23, 2011

SAN FRANCISCO — Yahoo Inc. Chairman Roy Bostock sought to defuse speculation about CEO Carol Bartz’s job security at the Internet company’s annual shareholders meeting Thursday, only to have it ignited again at the end of the session by an exasperated investor. After Bostock opened the meeting with an endorsement of Bartz’s performance, the unhappy investor ended it with a five-minute condemnation of Yahoo’s CEO and the entire board of directors. The investor identified himself as someone who personally owns some Yahoo stock and advises funds that own several million of the company’s shares. The Associated Press couldn’t verify his identify because Yahoo banned reporters from the meeting held at a Santa Clara hotel, telling the media to listen to a webcast of the event instead. During his unflattering critique, the investor described Bartz as a “lame duck” who should be immediately bought out of a four-year contract that expires in January 2013. He also called upon Yahoo’s board to consider a variety of dramatic steps, including breaking up or selling the company to lift the stock. Yahoo’s shares have been lagging the rest of the market for so long that Bartz still hasn’t hit any of the price targets set for her when she was hired nearly 2 1/2 years ago. “It’s time for a sense of urgency,” the investor said. Bartz thanked him for his opinion and then added, “That was certainly a downer.” No other shareholder lambasted Bartz during the 75-minute meeting. Shareholder backlashes contributed to the resignations of Yahoo’s two previous CEOs, Terry Semel and company co-founder Jerry Yang. Semel stepped down in June 2007 a week after he came under attack at Yahoo’s annual meeting. Yang stepped aside to make way for Bartz after months of ridicule for the way he handled a takeover bid from Microsoft Corp. Before Thursday’s question-and-answer period, Bartz defended the steps she has taken to streamline Yahoo’s operations and focus the company on delivering more services that will keep its audience of more than 600 million people on its website for longer periods. Sounding a familiar theme of her tenure, Bartz also asked for patience. “Companies don’t’ turn around just because someone wants them to turn around,” she said. “They turn around through hard work.” In his opening remarks, Bostock made it clear he intends to give Bartz more time to finish what she started. “This board is very supportive of Carol and this management team,” Bostock said in his opening remarks. “We are confident that Yahoo is headed in the right direction.” Bartz, 62, has boosted Yahoo’s earnings by cutting costs during her first 2 1/2 years as CEO, but so far hasn’t been able to revive the company’s revenue growth, even amid an upturn in Internet advertising that has enriched rivals Google Inc. and Facebook. The financial lethargy has dragged down Yahoo’s stock, which has been trading in a narrow range since Bartz’s arrival, while the market values of many other Internet companies have been soaring. Yahoo shares fell 14 cents to close Thursday at $15.08. When she was hired in 2009, Bartz received 5 million stock options that won’t start vesting until Yahoo’s stock closes at $17.60 or higher for at least 20 consecutive trading days. It looked like the shares might remain above that threshold until last month when Yahoo disclosed a surprising move that threatens to diminish the value of its 43 percent stake in the Alibaba Group, one of China’s most promising Internet companies. The investment suddenly looked less golden after Yahoo announced Alibaba had spun off its payment service, Alipay, into a company controlled by its CEO, Jack Ma, without compensating Yahoo. Yahoo’s stock price has plunged nearly 20 percent since the May 10 disclosure of the Alipay spinoff. Echoing remarks she made at a meeting with analysts a month ago, Bartz told shareholders Thursday that Yahoo is encouraged by the negotiations seeking compensation Yahoo for the loss of Alipay in its Alibaba investment. Bartz didn’t address unconfirmed media reports that Yahoo is interested in buying Hulu, a service that streams television shows on the Internet. Hulu, whose current owners include Walt Disney Co., News Corp. and Comcast Corp., has said it got an unsolicited buyout offer without identifying the bidder. The investor who spoke out against Yahoo urged the company not to buy Hulu unless the deal meant that Hulu’s CEO, Jason Kilar, would replace Bartz. Bostock faced stinging criticism three years ago when he was just starting out as Yahoo’s chairman and the company balked at a chance to sell itself to Microsoft for $47.5 billion, or $33 per share. Most shareholders are still backing Bartz and Bostock. Based on a preliminary count announced Thursday, Yahoo said about 80 percent of shareholders favored their re-election to the board. About 90 percent favor the re-election of the remaining eight members of the board. After the squandered Microsoft opportunity, only about 60 percent of shareholders backed Bostock’s election to the board in 2008.

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Christopher Mondini: Three Questions to Get Your Government Relations Job Done — and Get Ahead

June 23, 2011

So you are still settling into your new role: Global Public Policy Director at a dynamic internet company — a company intent on providing services to every corner of this complex and conflicted planet. Your strategic, forward-thinking approach is what landed you the job and you are eager to establish productive relations with governments and regulators everywhere. Last month, you attended the first “e-G8″ summit in Paris and heard President Sarkozy assert that governments must remain in charge of regulating and policing the Internet. Two weeks later, you learned how the U.S. State Department is financing the creation of stealth networks for activists to communicate outside the reach of governments. You wonder (worry) whether your company has been approached to help. Already your company’s role in promoting democratic revolutions and responding to natural disasters has been hailed as heroic, while during the same, short time period, NGOs have vilified you for complying with government orders to filter content and share user data. What else is on your plate? Your CEO has been asked to comment in the debate over civil liberties versus national security surveillance; you cringe at weekly media reports about data breaches or hacker attacks in your sector; your inbox is overflowing, not only with requests to testify before legislative committees, but also with the latest recommended guidelines from helpful institutions like the OECD and United Nations . You knew your job would not be easy. Fortunately, you started by confirming at the outset that your company has well-documented procedures for the more clear-cut policy areas related to privacy, criminal justice and law enforcement. Your cooperation in combating child exploitation, terrorist violence, piracy, trafficking and other crimes is unassailable, though you lament the jurisdictional contradictions that continually arise. But beyond just jurisdictional conflicts, there are grey areas — where legal and ethical considerations may be at odds, where regulations don’t yet exist or where, given the growing prominence of your brand, you’re called upon to “do the right thing”. You have pledged to cooperate with governments wherever you do business, but how much? Here are three questions to streamline your public policy decision-making process going forward: How truly global are you? If you are US-based and Hillary Clinton has praised you in a speech, it’s too late. You will never be perceived outside the US as anything other than a US company. But if you haven’t reached a level of prominence where you are hosting presidential town halls, you can still ask this question, no matter where you are based. Where are your users? Where are your employees? Where are your servers? How is your brand perceived? Are you susceptible to appeals to patriotism where the law (and your user agreements) may be unclear about a course of action? What do your people (and your stakeholders) stand for? Some companies get so caught up in chasing their IPOs that they can be unprepared for the onslaught of pressure groups and investor activists that come with going public. Ask yourself which protesters, if any, will show up at your first shareholder meeting. If you are not a publicly traded company, look to your users, employees and the civic institutions where you operate. Engage with them on what principles to abide by. Perform an internal “principles audit” so you can articulate your values to stakeholders, including those beyond your user population. Are you at least doing something ? Where regulation is nonexistent, contradictory, pending or shifting, you need to demonstrate that you are working to get in front of complex, controversial issues. These range from the environmental sustainability of data centers, to conflict minerals in your hardware, to human rights and privacy protections. What efforts can you point to when grievances from NGOs, angry shareholders or the plaintiffs’ bar arise? You need to know now, because government inquiry is sure to follow. As busy as you are, here’s why you still need to address these three questions: because working to gain answers before deploying an army of lobbyists and before the next public policy snafu will set you on a course that not only saves on lobbying, communications and crisis management costs, but builds a stronger company. In the process you can change a job that’s largely about complying with government regulations to one that contributes social value on a global scale. How’s that for strategic and forward-thinking?  

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Dylan Kendall: Biscuit Marketing: What Nonprofits Can Learn About Building Relationships From Popeyes

June 23, 2011

Brent Leary, social media expert and man about town, was seated at an award dinner for CRM Magazine with friend and work-partner Michael Thomas. Paul “PJ” Johnston, the founder of Entellium , a competitor in the Customer Relationship Management industry, was also seated at the same table. All got along well, sharing stories. A few weeks later, Michael came across an article in CRM Magazine where Brent was quoted from the dinner. Michael sent Brent the following tweet : “@brentleary saw where you were quoted…remember the conversations with Entellium?” Brent tweets back “@mwthomasNA I knew there was something crooked about him [PJ] when I found out he stole a biscuit off my plate at the CRM mag award dinner! ☺” So Michael, trying to out-funny Brent, tweets “Uh…I confess, it was me…I love biscuits!” Here’s where Popeyes Chicken (and the lesson) comes in . Popeyes, monitoring Twitter for buzzwords, humorously adds to the conversation: @Brentleary I can testify that @mwthomasNA is a biscuit fanatic. He can wolf them down. It would make quite a YouTube video. No hard sell, no product push. Just a little fun. The outcome? Brent started following Popeyes on Twitter, blogged about the tweet on his heavily-trafficked site, interviewed Popeyes Vice President of Communications and Marketing on his webinar, and went to Popeyes himself the next to buy a biscuit. All this out of 140 characters. Social media has changed the face of communications today. Gone is the power found in the faceless corporation — private or public — that relies on putting walls between itself and customers to create a feeling of credibility and importance. Taking its place is power based on genuine relationships with people, relationships that inspire loyalty and Word of Mouth marketing. Rohit Bhargava discusses this trend as it applies to for-profit ventures, explaining that “every element of your business, from your interactions with your customers to the packaging of your product, is an element of your brand personality, and these are the elements that inspire delight or indifference among your customers.” Personality Not Included , 2008 Nonprofit organizations are not exempt from these new marketing waves, being exposed to the same conditions resulting from the prolific use of the Internet and social media. Over 79% of all Americans use the Internet averaging 2,750 web page views per month. What does this mean for nonprofit organizations? Nonprofits need to inspire delight or suffer the indifference of donors who have an unprecedented choice of agencies to support, many sharing the same mission and goals. All nonprofits should have optimized websites that allow them to easily keep content fresh on the home page. Statistically 94% of all first-time visitors to any website are there doing “research,” only 6% are ready to purchase or donate. This means fresh content on your home page is likely to inspire a repeat visit. All nonprofits should have a call to action or CTA on every page. What is the action you want your visitor to take on each page? Leave his email address, donate to the cause, or buy a product? And most importantly, nonprofits need to be talking to their “people” — their supporters, volunteers and networks. To do this, agencies should have a social media policy that sets guidelines about frequency, voice and tone. The nonprofit’s personality should color all communication efforts from how content is distributed online to impromptu dialogues between donors and volunteers. If participated in respectfully and with an authentic voice, like Popeyes Chicken, these conversations can become the pathway to new friends who are more likely to get involved because they are being personally invited. Nonprofits cannot afford to think they are exempt from customer relationship management in cyberspace. Plunking down a “flag” website on the premise that if you build it, then they will come is no longer enough. Internet real estate is plentiful — strategic use of social media to build open, engaging and easily recognizable platforms may surprise you with the results.

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Val Brown: Pain Of Discipline Trumps The Pain Of Regret

June 22, 2011

Are delaying techniques the scourge of productivity or a necessary evil? I’ve never missed a deadline on a project or arrived unprepared for an investor pitch. Nor do I wait until the last minute to do my work. But that doesn’t mean I never suffer from pre-project paralysis when confronted with a challenging brief. Whether you’re sitting in front of a blank page, a newly-prepared canvas or a PowerPoint that awaits your bullets, the beginning of any creative or business project can be daunting and anxiety-ridden, though many of us may not be aware of it. It may manifest as procrastination. But in my case, and I think with most workers, it’s not laziness, but fear. What’s the root of this fear? It may be that it won’t be good (even though all our other work has been), or that we won’t finish on time (even though we always do). But in a word, it’s fear of judgment of our work — by our peers, our boss or the public. And worst of all, by ourselves. Of course, if we’re in business and have bosses we are risking judgment with every new piece of work we create. If we’re running the place, we may have fear of our employees’ opinions, and our customers pass judgment with each purchase they do or don’t make. As a brand development consultant, I risk it with each proposal, business plan or project result. As a writer, it’s worse. It’s just me out there. And with the internet, it’s me out there, forever. I recently begged The Huffington Post to remove a piece I wrote. I was young and foolish when I started blogging — all those four years ago — and hadn’t fully appreciated the permanency of the Internet. My most recent paralysis? The piece I’m writing here was originally intended to be about some very different aspect of productivity and creativity. But my delaying techniques were out in full force this morning, mostly because I hadn’t had what I thought was the “big idea.” So I actually sat down at my computer three times before typing the first word. What were my thoughts and actions in between? “Did I leave a light on in the bedroom? I’d better make a cup of tea. Need to check the weather. Those earrings sitting on my desk are going to annoy me, I’d better move them. Oh, I heard the dryer stop, better fold the clothes.” I regained my sanity momentarily and did not pick up a phone call that could’ve wasted 20 minutes. Like a dog who turns continuously in circles before finally laying down, I eventually settled in. And I had my idea. So maybe my delaying techniques were worthwhile this time, a time for incubation. Or maybe they’re just a part of my process. Excuse me a minute, I’m not sure what to write next. Think I’ll file a nail. As I was saying. All of us engaged in work — including work we love — must eventually get down to it. More often than not, I just dive in (especially easy when I have a clear brief and am not creating from “scratch”). But there’s another, more insidious delaying when no one is keeping tabs on us. It happens with the “extracurricular,” which is often around creative projects we’ve been threatening to do for months or years or even decades. And we’ve procrastinated to the point of never picking up our pen or brush or finishing that business plan for our start-up. We never finish the novel. Or we finish it but don’t try to get it published. Or we send a few letters to publishers and then give up. Because it wasn’t easy. Why do we expect things are supposed to be easy? Really, the first thing we should be taught is that life is work. It can be fun, too, but you’re going to have to work hard if you want results, or if you want financial or creative fulfillment. How do you combat this reluctance to commit to a creative project? With courage, discipline and a willingness to take risks. By taking action despite the fear and by holding yourself accountable. Perhaps the lucky ones are those who like to create just for themselves, who don’t seek the approval of others for their work and don’t wish to sell or make their work public. I finally started doing those things I had threatened — I had a little extra time during the recession. I did not want to turn around in a few decades and feel that I had lived a life, well, un-lived. I decided I preferred the pain of discipline over the pain of regret. With each action I’ve taken my fear of judgment became weaker than my fear of future disappointment in myself for not having taken risks. Sometimes, I don’t even care what people think. Wait, that’s going a bit far. But it’s better. So, how do I combat my tendency to delay the inevitable? I turn off my phone. Of course, this sounds like a no-brainer, but for a lot of people it’s putting down the pipe. And if you can’t do it because of responsibilities — such as kids or elderly parents — be very judicious in the calls you do pick up. Close my browser. No emails, Facebook or any other attention stealers. You don’t need to immediately know who “liked” your clever Facebook comment this morning. Set either the amount of time I’m going to write or other milestones (number of words, two new scenes, etc.). I do this at the beginning of the week and at the beginning of a day. If I have just an hour before work to write, that’s what I’ll do. Set attainable, not insanely-ambitious goals. I have a “creative partner” — we speak a few times a week and hold each other accountable. Some people prefer working in writing groups. Take breaks. After two hours, my mind needs a 15 minute breather. Reward achievement. When you reach an important milestone, do something nice for yourself. When you finish it, market it. Being a marketer, you’d think that would come easy, but it’s much more difficult doing it for yourself and putting yourself out there. Amazingly, gradually but surely, my creative projects get done, get edited, move forward and get pitched. And if rejected, they get pitched again. And even if I don’t make my fortune through this, I will not have to deal with the pain of regret, or for not having tried. It’s definitely not always easy. Writing is sometimes excruciating. As many writers have said, “I don’t like to write. I like having written.” I hear you. So, what are you waiting for? Are you struggling with this and, if not, if you joyfully skip to your desk or easel and commence work with wild abandon, what’s your secret?

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ICANN Opens Domain Naming: Is the ‘Dot Com’ Boom Over?

June 21, 2011

The Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers announced on Monday one of the most significant changes to Internet naming since “dot com” was first uttered. ICANN will dramatically increase the number of domain name endings — known in the industry as “generic top-level domains,” they currently include .com, .net and .gov — opening up the relatively limited set currently available to website owners. According to the organization , addresses will be able to end in almost any word in any language. Companies, places and individuals will be given the opportunity to register their names, and category domains — such as .cars, .sports and .news — will be up for registration come January 2012. Given the mere 22 possible endings available now, the decision has potentially far-ranging implications as to how corporations, non-profits and individuals choose to exist online. As part of a 305 page Applicant Guidebook , ICANN stipulates that companies registering certain brand names will be subject to thorough vetting to determine that they can legally hold a brand name domain. “The issue is about having control over your internet presence as much as possible,” said Jeff Ernst, a principal analyst at Forrester Research. Ernst explained that as it stands right now, many companies “have put their brand presence secondary to .com” — the most popular domain ending. With the new domains, “companies can better control their brand.” Consumers, meanwhile, will be able to differentiate between official brand sites and imposters. “When you go to .Gucci, consumers will know it’s not the knockoff,” said Ernst. The thorniest question surrounds category names and who controls the rights to them. Ernst says that “preference will be given to those groups that want to run an open community” and foresees industry associations and larger groups making collective bids, but with “strict guidelines as to who can participate.” Jeremiah Johnston, the chief operating officer for domain name registration company Sedo , cautioned that “these are words,” — not trademarked names — and warned that concerns will inevitably arise as to “who is the true custodian of them.” “This is a question of fair use rules — it’s going to be interesting,” he added. Anthony Falzone , a lecturer in Law affiliated with the Stanford Center on Internet and Society, said he thought the category domains “will strike off a huge bidding war.” But he also questioned how effective — or necessary — they would be in the long run. “In the early days of the internet, there was that first gold rush for domain names, because domain was quite important to finding things. Search capability was essential,” Falzone explained. But these days, he posited, users are just as likely to use search engines like Google to find an individual or company, making domain names less important. Others in the industry said the traditional domain name endings show little sign of going away. Kurt Gastroch, senior vice president of product at Network Solutions , a domain name registry and web hosting service, said that “the landscape has been dominated by .com extension since the existence of the commercial internet. And it still makes up half of the registrations.” Gastroch says that certain “behavioral conditioning” needed to take place to push users (and companies) to embrace the new domain name endings. But he also noted the success of certain country domain names that have been licensed for broader, unrelated uses. The domain .co was originally meant for Columbia, but has since been appropriated as an alternative to .com, while .tv was initially meant to represent the country of Tuvalu but has since become popular given its implication of broadcast media. “These GTLDs have multiple meanings and interpretations and are marketed in different ways,” explained Gastroch. Johnston said that the .co representatives, “went to trademark and branding conventions, and made sure everybody knew it was an alternative to .com.” He added that the .co team recognized that it was essential for “consumers to have a relationship to the extension and to assume what kind of content it represents. Marketing is key.” In the end, the net effect of ICANN’s domain name expansion is anyone’s guess. “We’re still in the infancy of the internet,” said Gastroch. “These things can change in ways we can imagine and ways we cannot.”

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TEPCO’s Credit Rating Reduced To Junk By Moody’s

June 20, 2011

TOKYO – Moody’s Investors Service cut its credit rating on Tokyo Electric Power Co to junk status on Monday and kept the operator of Japan’s crippled nuclear power plant on review for possible further downgrade, citing uncertainty over the fate of its bailout plan. Moody’s said it had lowered Tokyo Electric Power’s (Tepco) senior secured rating to Ba2 from Baa2 and long-term rating to B1 from Baa3, citing rising costs and compensation fees related to the disaster at Tepco’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, the world’s worst nuclear disaster in 25 years. “The latest downgrade reflects further escalation of costs and damages from the continuing Fukushima nuclear plant disaster and increased concern that government support measures may not completely protect creditors from losses,” Moody’s said. “The continued review for possible further downgrade is due to the uncertainty surrounding the passage of the support plan through the Diet, and the difficulty in estimating the ultimate total for Tepco’s total compensation liability,” it said. The move follows a similar downgrade to junk status by ratings agency Standard and Poor’s, which late last month cut its long-term credit rating on Tepco to B+ from BBB, and the utility’s secured bonds rating to BB+ from BBB. Moody’s said likely damages were now beyond Tepco’s ability to finance without government support, and the ratings agency said it is “very likely that a support program in some form will be legislated eventually due to TEPCO’s role as Japan’s largest provider of electricity.” Tepco is Japan’s largest corporate bond issuer, and its shares are widely held by financial institutions. “A failure to approve the support program would result in a multi-notch downgrade to reflect likely default through some form of debt restructuring, or court-supervised bankruptcy proceeding,” Moody’s said. Even if a support program is enacted on a timely basis, Moody’s said it expected Tepco to remain financially weak for several years. Tepco will likely face rising costs for replacement power, bear higher costs for stabilizing the Fukushima plant, as well as its decommissioning, Moody’s said. “Prospects for passing higher costs onto its customers in timely manner that meets the company’s financial needs are in doubt under the current regulatory regime and in view of the unfavorable economic environment,” Moody’s said. “These factors would together put its equity base under significant pressure. In addition, no losses have yet been booked for compensation claims which size is still uncertain,” Moody’s said. Reactor cooling systems were knocked out by the earthquake and tsunami, causing a meltdown at three of the reactors and forcing the evacuation of about 80,000 residents near the plant. Efforts to restore control over the plant have faced repeated setbacks, with the latest on Saturday, when a rise in radiation halted the clean-up of radioactive water at the Fukushima plant hours after it got under way. Japan’s government last month agreed to set up a fund with taxpayer money to help Tepco avoid insolvency and compensate victims of the radiation crisis at the plant. Japan’s ruling party will extend a session of parliament to approve extra spending needed to rebuild areas ravaged by the earthquake, although it is unclear if the bills will win support from a combative opposition. Besides the extra budget, lawmakers have yet to approve a draft law on compensation to Tepco victims, among others. There is much criticism about the scheme. Japan’s main opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is not prepared to accept the government’s scheme to help Tepco pay billions of dollars in compensation to victims of its nuclear plant disaster, a LDP lawmaker said on Monday. But the LDP is not united on its own counterproposal to a government bill that would allow the establishment of a fund to help Tepco compensate those affected by radiation leaks, Taro Kono told the Reuters Rebuilding Japan Summit in Tokyo. Tepco’s next shareholder meeting will be held on June 28. (Reporting by Chikako Mogi; Editing by Chris Gallagher) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Citi: Greek Situation Could Be ‘Tough To Constrain’ In Europe

June 20, 2011

ST PETERSBURG (Ekaterina Golubkova and Kiryl Sukhotski) – Greece’s debt crisis may be contagious and poses one of the biggest risks to global financial markets alongside Middle East uprisings, Citigroup’s Chief Risk Officer told Reuters. Greece, on the verge of a debt default following Portuguese and Irish bailouts, is being pressured by European finance ministers to introduce harsh austerity measures before they agree to 12 billion euros ($17 billion) in emergency loans. “In Europe, you have to think about whether there will be contagion beyond (Greece),” Brian Leach, told Reuters Insider Television in an interview on the sidelines of the International Economic Forum in St Petersburg. “I think it will be tough to constrain (the debt crisis) to Greece, (but) other countries have made remarkable progress,” he added. Another significant market risk comes from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Leach said. “The regime changes that are taking place (in MENA) are quite significant. Depending on where those regime changes take place you could imagine a very different world,” he said. Socio-political unrest, which spread across some Middle East and North African countries this year, has pushed up global commodity prices, with crude prices rising more than 22 percent since January. Leach sees no further threat from the issues that caused the 2008-09 financial crisis, but instead sees new problems emerging. “There will always be a new problem on the horizon… So as we all are trying to address whether this is MENA, whether it is the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, whether it is the domestic U.S. debt crisis (…), each of us has to adjust our books to adjust to the new horizons. I think the old ones have been addressed,” he said. Citi’s lending strategy was revised a couple years ago to adjust to changing markets and tougher regulation. Despite all these risks, Citi continues to lend and will not compromise its lending standards, Leach said. (Writing by Nastassia Astrasheuskaya, editing by John Bowker and David Cowell) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Skype Fires Execs, Avoiding Payouts After Microsoft Buyout

June 20, 2011

Skype Technologies SA, the Internet- calling service being bought by Microsoft Corp., is firing senior executives before the deal closes, a move that reduces the value of their payout, according to three people familiar with the matter. Vice Presidents David Gurle, Christopher Dean, Russ Shaw and Don Albert were dismissed from the Luxembourg-based company, said the people, who requested anonymity because the departures aren’t public.

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CA Loses $200 Million Per Year In Untaxed Internet Sales

June 20, 2011

AUSTIN, Texas — State governments across the country are laying off teachers, closing public libraries and parks, and reducing health care services, but there is one place they could get $23 billion a year if they could only agree how to do it: Internet retailers such as Amazon.com. That’s enough to pay for the salaries of more than 46,000 teachers, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In California, the amount of uncollected taxes from Amazon sales alone is roughly the same amount cut from child welfare services in the current state budget. But collecting those taxes from major online retailers is difficult. Internet retailers are required to collect sales tax only when they sell to customers living in a state where they have a physical presence, such as a store or office. When consumers order from out-of-state retailers, they are required under state law to pay the tax. But it’s difficult to enforce and rarely happens. That means under the current system the seller is absolved of responsibility, buyers save 3 percent to 9 percent because they rarely volunteer to pay the sales tax, and the state loses revenue. With sales tax revenue slumping more than 30 percent in most states between 2007 and 2010, lawmakers across the country are grasping for ways to collect those unpaid taxes. Retailers and lawmakers in several states have proposed ways to solve the problem, some with more support than others. “The problem is that some out-of-state e-retailers openly flaunt the law, arguing that it doesn’t apply to them,” said Texas state Democratic Rep. Elliot Naishtat, who has offered a bill to require more Internet sellers to collect Texas sales tax. “It’s about potentially generating hundreds of millions of dollars for our state.” Texas cut $24 billion in state services to cover its revenue shortfall. That included decisions not to fund the expected growth in the number of public school students and the expected growth in the caseload for Medicaid, the health care program for the poor and disabled. Internet retailers cite a 1992 U.S. Supreme Court decision involving catalog sales, Quill Corp. v. North Dakota, which ruled that states could require only companies that had a physical presence within the state to act as tax collector. To get around the ruling, some states are expanding what it means to be physically present. For example, an online retailer hiring a marketing firm or owning a subsidiary inside the state would qualify under definitions adopted in some states. In February, the Texas comptroller demanded that Amazon.com pay $269 million in back sales taxes because a subsidiary operated a warehouse near Dallas. Amazon is appealing the order. Last year, New York enacted a law that said Internet retailers’ practice of paying commissions to marketing agents based within the state constituted a presence. Arkansas, Colorado, Illinois, Rhode Island and North Carolina quickly followed with similar laws. Bills are pending in Arizona, California, Florida, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Texas lawmakers passed such a measure, but Gov. Rick Perry vetoed it. Now legislators are trying to resurrect the bill by attaching it to a larger budget measure. The matter is now before a conference committee. California estimates it loses at least $200 million a year in uncollected tax from online sales, $83 million from Amazon.com alone. A bill that has passed the state Legislature would force Seattle-based Amazon and others to collect that tax from California residents. Amazon, Overstock.com and other big Internet retailers cite the Quill decision as their primary defense against collecting sales taxes, but they also argue that collecting tax in the District of Columbia and the 45 states where a sales tax exists would be extremely complex and expensive. “There are over 8,000 taxing jurisdictions in the United States,” said Jonathan Johnson, president of Overstock.com, which has offices only in Utah. “We think it’s wrong that states are trying to cause out-of-state retailers to be their tax collectors.” After all, Johnson said, these retailers do not use any state services where they don’t have offices. To avoid having to collect sales tax, Amazon threatened to close its warehouse in Texas, cut off marketing affiliates in Illinois and North Carolina and sued New York claiming the law there is unconstitutional. Earlier this month, Amazon severed ties with website affiliates in Connecticut after the governor signed into law a state tax on online purchases that is expected to raise $9.4 million. The movement by states to force online retailers to collect sales taxes is more than just an attempt by government to get more money. It also highlights a rift in the business community. Traditional retailers are complaining loudly to their elected officials, saying the current structure creates an unfair playing field. Wal-Mart, Target, Best Buy, J.C. Penney, Sears and other traditional retailers have formed The Alliance for Main Street Fairness to push for more stringent tax laws on Internet retailers. Brick-and-mortar stores saw sales plunge 9.1 percent between 2007-2009, while online merchants saw sales rise 4.8 percent, according to the latest data available from the U.S. Census Bureau. Wal-Mart’s comparable store sales were down nearly 1 percent in 2010. The alliance is pushing to expand the definition of physical presence, state-by-state, to force big online retailers to collect state sales tax. When Texas lawmakers took up such a bill, most of the testimony came from owners of small businesses. Gregg Burger, the general manager of Austin’s Precision Camera, complained that customers come into his store to inspect the products, but then go online to buy them to avoid the sales tax. “We get people all the time who come in, talk to a salesman for 15 minutes to half an hour … and then go, and we know they are going to buy it online because they can save money. In theory, they are stealing our time,” Burger said. “We’re losing at least 15 percent to online, out-of-state, so we’re losing anywhere between $3 million and $5 million a year in business.” While state laws would help, Burger said he would like to see a national solution. “We should be picking on everyone who ships into every state,” he said. But local Internet marketers that link to major Internet retailers complain the laws would hurt them. In Illinois and other states where such laws have passed, Internet retailers cut their ties with local web sites. Johnson, of Overstock, said the traditional retail giants are just getting a taste of their own medicine. “Local retailers complained that the big-box stores were coming in and taking their business, and the Wal-Marts of the world said they had a better business model and the world has changed,” Johnson said. “Today, the business model has changed and we can take cost out of the supply chain by doing business the way we do on the Internet. And for Wal-Mart, of all people, to be saying it’s not fair that Amazon and Overstock can’t be forced to be tax collectors is ironic.” Representatives for Wal-Mart and Target declined to comment for this story. While the U.S. Supreme Court sided with online retailers in its Quill decision, the ruling also said Congress should pass a law standardizing sales tax collection under the Interstate Commerce Clause. Perry, the pro-business and states-rights Texas governor, said in his veto message that a national solution is the only way to settle the issue. Traditional retailers have lobbied for the Main Street Fairness Act, which was reintroduced in Congress this spring by Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Illinois. The act would be “a helping hand to state and local governments at a time that they need it the most,” he said. While few think the Republican-controlled House of Representatives will pass a bill that critics have called “a tax on the Internet,” the sudden flurry of action in state legislatures and lobbying by big retailers could provide a boost to efforts to pass such a law, even among conservatives. Those lawmakers find themselves in a bind between opposing taxes and supporting traditional businesses. “Republicans and Democrats alike recognize that there is an inequity here,” said Danny Diaz, a spokesman for the Alliance for Main Street Fairness. A component of the proposed federal law is a requirement for states to adopt the Streamlined Sales and Use Tax Agreement, which would standardize sales tax laws and filing requirements for Internet retailers. To sweeten the pot, states would reimburse companies for any additional costs involved in collecting it. Already, 24 states have adopted the streamlined sales tax, while 1,500 companies have voluntarily collected $700 million in sales tax revenue since 2005 using the system, said Scott Peterson, executive director of the Streamlined Sales Tax Governing Board. The volunteer retailers represent only a fraction of online sales. Overstock’s Johnson and Paul Misener, vice president for global public policy at Amazon, said they would support a national standard using the Streamlined Sales and Use Tax Agreement. “We’ve long supported a truly simple, national approach, evenhandedly applied,” Misener said. “This is federalism at work, and many states are making the right decision to seek a federal solution.”

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Internet Taxes Could Cover Salaries Of More Than 46,000 Teachers

June 19, 2011

AUSTIN, Texas — State governments across the country are laying off teachers, closing public libraries and parks, and reducing health care services, but there is one place they could get $23 billion if they could only agree how to do it: Internet retailers such as Amazon.com. That’s enough to pay for the salaries of more than 46,000 teachers, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In California, the amount of uncollected taxes from Amazon sales alone is roughly the same amount cut from child welfare services in the current state budget. But collecting those taxes from major online retailers is difficult. Internet retailers are required to collect sales tax only when they sell to customers living in a state where they have a physical presence, such as a store or office. When consumers order from out-of-state retailers, they are required under state law to pay the tax. But it’s difficult to enforce and rarely happens. That means under the current system the seller is absolved of responsibility, buyers save 3 percent to 9 percent because they rarely volunteer to pay the sales tax, and the state loses revenue. With sales tax revenue slumping more than 30 percent in most states between 2007 and 2010, lawmakers across the country are grasping for ways to collect those unpaid taxes. Retailers and lawmakers in several states have proposed ways to solve the problem, some with more support than others. “The problem is that some out-of-state e-retailers openly flaunt the law, arguing that it doesn’t apply to them,” said Texas state Democratic Rep. Elliot Naishtat, who has offered a bill to require more Internet sellers to collect Texas sales tax. “It’s about potentially generating hundreds of millions of dollars for our state.” Texas cut $24 billion in state services to cover its revenue shortfall. That included decisions not to fund the expected growth in the number of public school students and the expected growth in the caseload for Medicaid, the health care program for the poor and disabled. Internet retailers cite a 1992 U.S. Supreme Court decision involving catalog sales, Quill Corp. v. North Dakota, which ruled that states could require only companies that had a physical presence within the state to act as tax collector. To get around the ruling, some states are expanding what it means to be physically present. For example, an online retailer hiring a marketing firm or owning a subsidiary inside the state would qualify under definitions adopted in some states. In February, the Texas comptroller demanded that Amazon.com pay $269 million in back sales taxes because a subsidiary operated a warehouse near Dallas. Amazon is appealing the order. Last year, New York enacted a law that said Internet retailers’ practice of paying commissions to marketing agents based within the state constituted a presence. Arkansas, Colorado, Illinois, Rhode Island and North Carolina quickly followed with similar laws. Bills are pending in Arizona, California, Florida, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Texas lawmakers passed such a measure, but Gov. Rick Perry vetoed it. Now legislators are trying to resurrect the bill by attaching it to a larger budget measure. The matter is now before a conference committee. California estimates it loses at least $200 million a year in uncollected tax from online sales, $83 million from Amazon.com alone. A bill that has passed the state Legislature would force Seattle-based Amazon and others to collect that tax from California residents. Amazon, Overstock.com and other big Internet retailers cite the Quill decision as their primary defense against collecting sales taxes, but they also argue that collecting tax in the District of Columbia and the 45 states where a sales tax exists would be extremely complex and expensive. “There are over 8,000 taxing jurisdictions in the United States,” said Jonathan Johnson, president of Overstock.com, which has offices only in Utah. “We think it’s wrong that states are trying to cause out-of-state retailers to be their tax collectors.” After all, Johnson said, these retailers do not use any state services where they don’t have offices. To avoid having to collect sales tax, Amazon threatened to close its warehouse in Texas, cut off marketing affiliates in Illinois and North Carolina and sued New York claiming the law there is unconstitutional. Earlier this month, Amazon severed ties with website affiliates in Connecticut after the governor signed into law a state tax on online purchases that is expected to raise $9.4 million. The movement by states to force online retailers to collect sales taxes is more than just an attempt by government to get more money. It also highlights a rift in the business community. Traditional retailers are complaining loudly to their elected officials, saying the current structure creates an unfair playing field. Wal-Mart, Target, Best Buy, J.C. Penney, Sears and other traditional retailers have formed The Alliance for Main Street Fairness to push for more stringent tax laws on Internet retailers. Brick-and-mortar stores saw sales plunge 9.1 percent between 2007-2009, while online merchants saw sales rise 4.8 percent, according to the latest data available from the U.S. Census Bureau. Wal-Mart’s comparable store sales were down nearly 1 percent in 2010. The alliance is pushing to expand the definition of physical presence, state-by-state, to force big online retailers to collect state sales tax. When Texas lawmakers took up such a bill, most of the testimony came from owners of small businesses. Gregg Burger, the general manager of Austin’s Precision Camera, complained that customers come into his store to inspect the products, but then go online to buy them to avoid the sales tax. “We get people all the time who come in, talk to a salesman for 15 minutes to half an hour … and then go, and we know they are going to buy it online because they can save money. In theory, they are stealing our time,” Burger said. “We’re losing at least 15 percent to online, out-of-state, so we’re losing anywhere between $3 million and $5 million a year in business.” While state laws would help, Burger said he would like to see a national solution. “We should be picking on everyone who ships into every state,” he said. But local Internet marketers that link to major Internet retailers complain the laws would hurt them. In Illinois and other states where such laws have passed, Internet retailers cut their ties with local web sites. Johnson, of Overstock, said the traditional retail giants are just getting a taste of their own medicine. “Local retailers complained that the big-box stores were coming in and taking their business, and the Wal-Marts of the world said they had a better business model and the world has changed,” Johnson said. “Today, the business model has changed and we can take cost out of the supply chain by doing business the way we do on the Internet. And for Wal-Mart, of all people, to be saying it’s not fair that Amazon and Overstock can’t be forced to be tax collectors is ironic.” Representatives for Wal-Mart and Target declined to comment for this story. While the U.S. Supreme Court sided with online retailers in its Quill decision, the ruling also said Congress should pass a law standardizing sales tax collection under the Interstate Commerce Clause. Perry, the pro-business and states-rights Texas governor, said in his veto message that a national solution is the only way to settle the issue. Traditional retailers have lobbied for the Main Street Fairness Act, which was reintroduced in Congress this spring by Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Illinois. The act would be “a helping hand to state and local governments at a time that they need it the most,” he said. While few think the Republican-controlled House of Representatives will pass a bill that critics have called “a tax on the Internet,” the sudden flurry of action in state legislatures and lobbying by big retailers could provide a boost to efforts to pass such a law, even among conservatives. Those lawmakers find themselves in a bind between opposing taxes and supporting traditional businesses. “Republicans and Democrats alike recognize that there is an inequity here,” said Danny Diaz, a spokesman for the Alliance for Main Street Fairness. A component of the proposed federal law is a requirement for states to adopt the Streamlined Sales and Use Tax Agreement, which would standardize sales tax laws and filing requirements for Internet retailers. To sweeten the pot, states would reimburse companies for any additional costs involved in collecting it. Already, 24 states have adopted the streamlined sales tax, while 1,500 companies have voluntarily collected $700 million in sales tax revenue since 2005 using the system, said Scott Peterson, executive director of the Streamlined Sales Tax Governing Board. The volunteer retailers represent only a fraction of online sales. Overstock’s Johnson and Paul Misener, vice president for global public policy at Amazon, said they would support a national standard using the Streamlined Sales and Use Tax Agreement. “We’ve long supported a truly simple, national approach, evenhandedly applied,” Misener said. “This is federalism at work, and many states are making the right decision to seek a federal solution.”

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Raymond Heard: In the Beginning, the Idea, the Word, Then Babble

June 18, 2011

Most of us believe that, in the beginning, there was the Word. The provocative proceedings at ornate Koerner Hall on the Royal College of Music campus in Yorkville suggest otherwise — that, in the beginning, was the Idea. Surely, one must suppose, God, in her infinite wisdom, had the idea of creating planet earth and, indeed, the multiverse, before her six days of labour began. Words, after all, are the byproducts of ideas. Words, or images, explain ideas to us in conversation, writing, music, art, science and maths. Ideas can be shared today in milliseconds in cyberspace, which is essentially the new marketplace for ideas. Indeed, we live in an idea-driven economy in which, when asked if he has anything to declare at customs, a Bill Gates (with Microsoft in his brain) can reply with a straight face “I have absolutely nothing to declare!” In his relentless pursuit of finding new ideas for changing times, Moses Znaimer, the prescient creator of upstart Citytv, hosts ideacity in Toronto each year, inviting 50 out-of-the box presenters and staging three parties at trendy restaurants for the 600 people who fork out $1,000 each (plus an extra $150 to attend a party), to be seen if not Heard, at the three-day event. Scripted speeches are outlawed; presentations cannot exceed 17 minutes; there is no single topic.There are singers, actors, dancers, jugglers and clowns; architects, bankers, doctors, technology gurus (a surfeit of them, perhaps), agitators, devil’s advocates, and, of course, scribes. Many of them have books to promote to a captive audience that thrives on new ideas. Schmoozing, networking, is the order of the day. So let’s offer up a somewhat surrealistic narrative of what struck us about this year’s ideacity, which wound up Friday night with a raucous soiree at the Rosewater supper club. This being a Moses Znaimer event, nobody was surprised when the disputatious Ottawa Citizen columnist Dan Gardner, who has written the best-seller, Future Babble , gave a lecture on — get this! — bullshit, which is what his book is all about. Gardner sought to show us that, in this era of endless conspiracy theories, even those who say they do not believe in bullshit are actually bullshitting themselves. He then gave us a fascinating case study about the great, but now largely forgotten, British historian Arnold Toynbee, whose mammoth 12 volume Study of History series was required reading when I was at Harvard in the 60s. Toynbee’s thesis, discredited by most other historians, was that great civilizations, like Greece, Rome and Britain, decline, fall and sometimes renew themselves, followed by eras of religious revival. He loathed modern nationalism, which created the Nazis and fascists, calling it a false god. I suspect that Pierre Trudeau’s contempt for nationalism, may have stemmed from reading Toynbee, some of whose high-blown contributions to the London Observer I edited with delight in the 1970s. Just how false a prophet Toynbee was came in his confident assertion that, in today’s world, human beings would lose all interest in — get this, too! — technology. To my mind H.G. Wells, in his book The Outline of History , which also required reading in my academic generation, did a better job than Toynbee, and with less bullshit, when he explored the hitherto neglected Asian civilizations, and concluded than history is combat between tyranny and education. Wells’s science fiction epic, War of the Worlds , was also more prophetic than anything Toynbee wrote, but I doth digress, as always. Let’s rewind again, to 1967. Children around the world, including the preteen Heards in Virginia, laugh, cringe and cry when they see the movie Dr. Doolittle , starring the great but very moody Rex Harrison, as the unconventional, itinerant British vet who sought, in the Academy Award-winning title song, to “Talk to the Animals.” In the movie, based on the Hugh Lofting novel, he was taught animal language by Polynesia, his pet parrot, a unique member of her species; she did not repeat what she heard, but told people new things. Fast forward now to a Thursday session at ideacity we are introduced to the space age Dr. Doolittle, who just may be very close to talking to possibly the most intelligent, caring animals on our threatened planet, dolphins, Diana Reiss, a cogitative psychologist at Hunter College in New York and the National Aquarium, Baltimore. In studying dolphins for 30 years, now using sophisticated Internet technology, Dr.Reiss has discovered how close they are to humans, different as the bodies may be. Like humans and the great apes, dolphins can recognize themselves in mirrors, which amuses them for hours. They have acute sonar, as well as eye, vision. Like us, they protect their young, hunt and play in groups (i have surfed with them in South Africa and Hawaii). Most importantly, Dr. Reiss shows us, dolphins speak to each other in a language of at least 100 distinct signals. (An important distinction between dolphins and us, I believe, is that they do not kill their own kind.) It is Reiss’s mission to crack the code of the dolphin dictionary, or keyboard. She has already succeeded in getting them to read images on an underwater keyboard. She ended her presentation with quite the most horrific images seen at ideacity: a clip from the mass slaughter of dolphins by Japanese fisherman from the Oscar-winning movie, The Cove , for which she was an adviser. Pointing out that not even laboratory rats can be treated this way, she urged us, as citizens of the world, to protest this annual massacre to the Japanese authorities. Then there was the alarming dissection of one of the most pernicious ideas and practices in modern society — honour killings, in which girls and women are killed for affecting Western garb and customs — by the outspoken National Post sage, Barbara Kay. She ridiculed the fashionable view that these are just examples of family violence. They are nothing of the sort, she insisted.They are dismal examples of “social terrorism,” acts of “collective murder.” At least a dozen Canadian female were victims of honour killings in recent years. Then she took a shot at the Slut Marches that began in Toronto and have become fashionable around the world –or at least countries that will tolerate them. “There is no honour in being a slut,” she said. A highlight of the event, though he very elegantly said nothing really new, was Conrad Black, the only presenter who needed no introduction from Moses, professing his innocence on tape and arguing that, given our relative prosperity in this deep recession, this may indeed be the long awaited Canadian century. Given that Friday June 17 was the centenary of the birth of the first idea-based corporate titan, IBM, which pioneered the development of many of the computer elements we take for granted, not to mention Watson which won against humans on Jeopardy, the timing of ideacity was astute. For the agenda, varied and unpredictable as might have been, was underpinned by ideas — and the slogan of Thomas Watson, the control-freak founder of IBM, was, of course, THINK.

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Target Workers Reject Unionization

June 18, 2011

NEW YORK — Workers at a Target store in New York voted against joining the country’s largest retail union Friday night, but the union said it would press on and broaden its push to represent the company’s workers nationwide. The United Food and Commercial Workers Union Local 1500 also said it would contest the results and ask the federal government to order a new election, alleging that Target illegally intimidated workers. Target denied the union’s allegations. Both sides said the workers at Target’s Valley Stream store voted 137-85 against unionization. A “yes” vote would have made the store the first of the company’s 1,700 locations to bring in organized labor. “Target did everything they could to deny these workers a chance at the American Dream,” said Bruce W. Both, president of United and Commercial Workers Union Local 1500, in a statement. “However, the workers’ pursuit of a better life and the ability to house and feed their families is proving more powerful. These workers are not backing down from this fight. They are demanding another election.” Target spokeswoman Molly Snyder said the company acted legally. “Target absolutely believes we have followed all the policies and procedures that are outlined by the National Labor Relations Board in a completely lawful manner,” Snyder said. In response to the vote, the union planned to begin a campaign called “Target: Democracy” at the company’s other 26 stores in the New York area and will begin coordinating a nationwide campaign with other union locals in major U.S. cities. “Today is merely the end of the first round of what will undoubtedly be a 12-round fight for fairness, democracy, justice and change for all Target workers,” Both said. Since two-dozen workers from the Valley Stream store approached the union with their grievances regarding hours and pay in February, Target employees from around the country have been reaching out to the labor organization, according to Patrick Purcell, spokesman for the UFCW. The union consists of mostly grocery workers, but also represents employees at retailers that include clothier H&M. The vote comes at a time when union membership in the retail industry has waned. In 1983, 1.2 million retail workers were union members. Today, that number is 703,000, with more than half of those workers in grocery stores, according to the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union. At the same time, the quality of retail jobs has fallen. The median hourly wage for retail salespeople has dropped 3 percent since 2006 after adjusting for inflation. And shrinking hours for many workers make it hard to earn a living wage or qualify for benefits. “Workers are seeing their hours getting cut and their take-home pay, while basic costs for gas and food are soaring,” says Burt Flickinger III, president of retail consultancy Strategic Resource Group. “They’re increasingly frustrated.” Workers at the store in Valley Stream are upset about hourly wage increases amounting to eight cents or less, says Patrick Purcell, the union spokesman. Some employees also say their hours have been cut from 30 per week to fewer than 10. Part-timers must bank at least 20 hours a week, on average, to qualify for benefits. A Target spokeswoman says hourly workers at the Valley Stream store average 24 hours a week. Charmain Brown, who’s worked at Target for six years, supports the effort to organize. “I feel like if we get a union it would be better because we’d have a voice, somebody to stand up for us,” he says. Betsy Wilson, a single mom of two who works about 21 hours a week at Target, disagrees. “What do I need a union to fight for me for?” she says. Other retail workers also are putting up a fight. A new group called the Organization United for Respect at Wal-Mart, partly funded by the UFCW, coordinated a small protest at the company’s Bentonville, Ark., headquarters Thursday. And a union representing 4,000 Macy’s workers in New York, including those at the flagship store, authorized a strike on Monday when the department store tried to get concessions on wages, benefits and hours. A tentative agreement was reached on Thursday. “We haven’t seen such unrest in organized labor (in the retail sector) since the 1970s,” Flickinger says. Much of that unrest has been focused on Target’s competitor, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Over the past decade, the UFCW has failed several times to unionize Wal-Mart stores. In 2004, the company shuttered a Canadian store after it became the first in North America to win union certification. In 2000, 11 workers in the meatpacking department at a store in Jacksonville, Tex., voted to join the UFCW. Soon after, Wal-Mart began stocking only pre-wrapped meats, effectively eliminating the positions. Don Schroeder, a Mintz Levin labor attorney who has represented corporations in similar battles for 18 years, said Target has been successful at defeating union election petitions in the past, even in union strongholds like Detroit. Unions generally don’t file a petition unless they feel they have the vote firmed up, but with a high-profile company like Target, he says, labor may be willing to take a chance. “They know if they win one, it could be a domino effect,” he says. ___ AP Retail Writer Anne D’Innocenzio in New York contributed to this report.

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In Greece, American Economic Recovery Is At Stake

June 18, 2011

Once again, the global economy seems vulnerable to a crisis brewing in a single country, as the turmoil in Greece and the risk of a government default raise the prospect of losses rippling out across Europe and to the United States. In recent months, Americans have been buffeted by a series of unseen challenges that have repeatedly dashed hopes for a sustained economic recovery and the resumption of hiring, from the tsunami in Japan to rising oil prices. Now, with unemployment high and anxieties growing, a new economic threat has taken shape, raising fears of potentially enormous financial losses. Though those fears eased somewhat on Friday as European bankers and the International Monetary Fund inched closer to an agreement that would avert a Greek default , grim calculations occupied financial capitals around the globe, as investors estimated the consequences of an effective bankruptcy. They considered a scenario much like the one that followed the collapse of major financial institutions in the fall of 2008, with the crisis potentially spreading throughout Europe, causing banks and governments to fail and freezing lending in major economies. Most suggested that such an event remained unlikely, but the risks were nonetheless significant — and maddeningly difficult to quantify, given the complexities of an interconnected and global financial system. For large American banks, immediate exposure to Greece appeared to pose only modest dangers. Some $41.5 billion in large American bank assets were vulnerable in the event of a default, according to a recent accounting by the Bank of International Settlements , with another $32.7 billion on the line in the form of insurance . That amounts to $74 billion, much less than the nearly $1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities that were at the center of the financial crisis that nearly brought down the American economy in 2008. But even as economists expressed confidence that American banks would remain solvent in the face of a Greek default, they said financial institutions could seize with fear and slow their lending, removing fuel from the American economy just as concerns mount that the recovery is slowing. “If Greece is just unable to pay its debts, we are going to see finance suddenly freeze up,” said Gus Faucher, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, a research firm. “We are going to see huge drops in stock prices. Firms are going to get very cautious, very anxious again. They’re going to lay people off. It’s going to be very similar to what we saw in late 2008, early 2009, on top of what we already had. So it would be really disastrous for the American economy.” A Greek default threatens the prospect of European bank failures, which would crimp international trade by depriving exporters of a source of credit to finance their transactions, said Brookings Institution economist Gary Burtless. If Europeans lose spending power, that would limit their demand for imported goods, further slowing trade. “If major European banks fail, there would almost definitely be a repetition of what we saw in 2008 and early 2009, when there was an immense drop in international trade,” Burtless said. “You need to have credit to pay for the cost of this, and those arrangements quickly got disrupted, and trade fell right away, and it was very, very quick.” Scott MacDonald, head of research at Aladdin Capital LLC in Stamford, Conn., compared credit — or lending and borrowing — to oil enabling the engine of the American economy to run smoothly. “Once you’ve pulled the oil out of the engine, eventually you end up with friction,” he said, “and eventually, the engine comes to a halt.” A default big enough to trigger large European banking failures could significantly exacerbate unemployment in the United States, lifting it perhaps as high as 14 percent, up from its current level of 9.1 percent, and almost certainly causing a double-dip recession, said Jay Bryson, an economist at Wells Fargo. The dynamic is now so fraught that the mere fear of a Greek default risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, Bryson added, as investors demand higher interest rates on loans to Greece, tightening the pressure. And as pressure builds in Greece, that feeds anxiety in other parts of the global economy. As the risks mount, investors raise the cost of borrowing money, effectively increasing the debt burdens of troubled governments. This dynamic now menaces Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Ireland — all heavily indebted and grappling with concerns that they, too, will not be able to repay their loans. If Greece defaults, lifting interest rates for all, that increases the likelihood that these countries also could default. The mere increase in the perceived risk of such an outcome feeds on itself and amplifies the actual risk. As concerns about these countries grow, alarm would almost certainly spread to still other European countries holding their debts. Investments by French banks have left 30 percent of the French national output exposed to Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy, Bryson said. As the interconnected nature of the risks emerge, raising the possibility of bank failures, investors could pull their funds out of any institutions deemed to be on the edge, unleashing another self-fulfilling prophecy, as other banks fail in turn. Stock prices would plunge as people sell their shares in a panicked effort to gain cash to cover their losses. European companies that rely on borrowing from banks would start to run out of the cash they need to run daily operations. European businesses would abandon plans to grow and start to lay off workers, who would then have less money to spend on goods and services, perpetuating the cycle of layoffs and lower spending. Such a disastrous scenario appeared unlikely late Friday, yet still possible. MacDonald put the odds at between 10 and 20 percent. A catastrophic recession in Europe would likely scare American banks and make them reluctant to lend, grinding the economic recovery to a halt. Among economists, these dire concerns underscored what they portrayed as the necessity for some form of agreement that would put off a day of reckoning in Greece, lest the consequences spread and another global contagion take hold. “It’s in everyone’s interest to at least kick the can down the road,” said Faucher, the Moody’s Analytics economist. “Whether that’s going to happen or not is still up in the air because it’s going to require concessions from everybody.”

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‘Anonymous’ Targets Fed Chair Ben Bernanke

June 13, 2011

If a new video purportedly by cyber-group “Anonymous” is to be believed, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has become the focus of a pointed threat. In the video, uploaded on Saturday, the anonymous group, self-described as loosely connected and Internet based, allegedly claims that the Federal Reserve is guilty of “crimes against humanity” and calls for the resignation of Ben Bernanke. In addition, the group would seem to demand the break up of the Federal Reserve and other major banking institutions. In response to criticism of the Federal Reserve’s secrecy, Ben Bernanke this year gave the first-ever press conference by a Fed chairman. He plans to make the press a quarterly affair. The duties of the Federal Reserve include regulating bank and setting interest rates, among others. This is not the only high-profile threat by the group — also threatening Bank of America and Sony — nor is it the first time the group has taken aim at Bernanke. The group first requested his resignation on March 12 of this year, in a similarly-designed video, according to Business Insider . Both Bernanke-related videos link to the same domain name: AmpedStatus.org . In an April video threatening Sony with a data breach, a group, also said to be part of Anonymous, uses a similar-looking emblem to represent themselves, although the domain name, irc.anonops.in , is different. Anonymous does not have one central site to confirm of deny the video is in their name. Searches for official confirmation did not prove successful. If Bernanke doesn’t resign by Flag Day, June 14, the video calls for public protests until demands are met, under the name “Operation Empire State Rebellion.” But as Cnet News points out, it remains unclear whether the group will engage in cyber attacks against the Fed if it chooses to escalate. The group is currently being blamed by Sony for allegedly hacking and shutting down its Play Station system in May, an accusation the group has denied . Just this past Sunday, Anonymous reportedly took down the site of the Spanish Police, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday. Spanish police claim to have no evidence that the individuals in question are associated with the group. Watch the Anonymous video here:

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What The Citigroup Data Breach Means For Credit Card Users

June 11, 2011

NEW YORK — Citigroup’s disclosure that the names, account numbers and email addresses of 200,000 of its credit card customers were stolen strikes at the core of modern-day financial life – the ways people buy groceries and pay the power bill. It’s only the latest major data breach. In just the past three months, hackers have penetrated 100 million Sony PlayStation accounts, the networks of Lockheed Martin and the customer email databases of a company that does marketing for Best Buy and Target. But half of all Americans, 154 million people, have a credit card. The Citi attack is a reminder that the technology used to protect their information was built by humans, security analyst Jacob Jegher notes – and it can be breached by humans, too. “People rely on the safety net of a bank to take care of their information,” says Jegher, a senior analyst at Celent, a research firm that focuses on information technology in the financial industry. “Unfortunately, that net has a lot of holes.” Citi says all of the customers whose information was stolen will receive a notification letter, and most of them will get a new card, although it has declined to say exactly how many. The bank says its enforcement division and authorities are investigating. The victims will have to endure the hassle of updating the credit card numbers on any number of online accounts, but they probably won’t lose any money. For one thing, federal laws protect credit card customers from fraud beyond $50, and in most cases, the bank that issues the card will cover up to that amount. And the Citi hackers didn’t get to the three-digit numbers that appear on the backs of credit cards, a security feature known as the CVV code. That means the hackers, or whoever they might sell the information to, would have trouble making direct charges. The danger is that someone might use the information that was compromised to mount a sophisticated “phishing” attack, in which criminals send out convincingly designed emails pretending to be from the bank and gain access to account information. The relatively small number of accounts taken from Citi, which has 21 million credit card customers in North America, suggests the hackers used spyware that captured the data of customers who logged in to its website to conduct online banking, one expert says. “The thing in the Citi case which is good is they detected it quickly and shut it down,” says Dave Jevans, chairman of security firm IronKey Inc. and chairman of an anti-phishing nonprofit group made up of 2,000 government agencies and companies, including Citi. “They’ve got systems that are going to look at the data leaving the network and are able to see that somebody’s sending information out,” he adds. Banks are ahead of most other industries in this regard, he explains, and other businesses will have to catch up. CVV codes can’t be stored with a simple magnetic swipe of a credit card, and the businesses that process payments are not allowed to store the codes after a transaction, so they provide another defense against fraud. Deloitte, the audit and consulting firm, said in a report last year that security threats to customer account and other information were on the rise. The good news: Companies are taking notice. The number of companies that said they didn’t spend enough on security fell to 36 percent in 2010 from 56 percent the year before. The survey found that 67 percent of U.S. banks are making encryption, a process to protect digital information, a top initiative. Still, Deloitte also reported that of all nations, the United States had the most financial institutions that were still “catching up” on security, as opposed to being ready or “on plan.” And the number of high-profile attacks in recent weeks is frightening. Tyler Lesthaeghe, a senior at Iowa State University, got a call from Citi on a Saturday morning two weeks ago and was told that his credit card number had been stolen. No fraudulent charges were made, and he received a new card two days later. Lesthaeghe’s case appears unrelated to the attack that Citi disclosed Thursday. Credit card information can be stolen in ways other than a direct attack on the bank, from sophisticated attacks elsewhere in the network that processes card payments to a corrupt waiter who writes down the numbers. He says he expects this sort of thing to happen more often in the Internet age and checks his credit report regularly and his account statements every month. “You have to be diligent about it,” he says. “It seems like large amounts of credit card numbers are getting stolen. It’s kind of scary to hear that.” Security experts say there are several steps you can take to protect yourself: _Check your credit report regularly to make sure stolen information isn’t being used to open new accounts. That scenario is unlikely in the Citi case because the hackers didn’t get enough information, but it’s good to check anyway. “Where consumers have to be very concerned is when information like their date of birth, their Social Security number or their mother’s maiden name is breached,” says Tom Osherwitz, chief privacy officer at ID Analytics. Everyone is entitled to a free annual report from each of the three major credit reporting companies, Experian, Equifax and TransUnion. Those reports can be accessed at annualcreditreport.com, which also explains how to set fraud alerts. Ordering one every few months and rotating the companies essentially allows you to check your credit regularly for free. _Vary the user names and passwords on your online accounts, and make sure to change any user names and passwords that match those in an account that may have been hacked. _Third-party services will monitor accounts established in your name and alert you to something suspicious. If you decide to pay for one, make sure it covers all three credit bureaus and tells you about all activity in a timely manner. Otherwise, it’s not worth the money. _If you are the victim of identify theft, report it to the authorities. Details on how to do that are at onguardonline.gov, a security site developed by several federal agencies. ___ Associated Press Writers Eileen AJ Connelly and Joseph Pisani in New York and Ryan Nakashima in Los Angeles contributed to this report.

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Steve Mariotti: 24 Concepts Every Young Person Should Know About Business

June 6, 2011

The Babson College definition of entrepreneurship is: “A way of thinking and acting that is opportunity obsessed, holistic in approach, and leadership balanced.” In honor of the Urban Entrepreneurship Summit being held at Rutgers Business School in Newark today, I wanted to present my thoughts on what the younger generation needs to know about entrepreneurship. The quotation above from Babson, the top entrepreneurship college in the country, gives a springboard to my essential thought: Every individual should learn how to start, finance, and manage a small business. This will give millions of people the skills necessary to make a livelihood, in case they have to leave a job or are unable to find one. It will also enable them to take advantage of a market insight and turn it into a business opportunity. Also, they will become better employees through understanding how business functions. After 30 years of teaching entrepreneurship as a way to encourage at-risk students to learn how to be economically independent and to stay in school, I am confident that this experiential approach works will help struggling youth to stay in school and learn basic skills. One of the major causes of poverty is business failure, often due to a lack of expertise. Learning the basics of entrepreneurship and business ownership will, I believe, significantly lower the rates of global poverty. I have met thousands of young people who have the drive to make their families proud, build good communities, go to college and exit poverty via entrepreneurship. Learning how to start a business should be part of every school’s curriculum. Below I have listed the 24 concepts every young person should learn before graduating high school: 1. The Importance of Mental and Physical Health This means eating right, getting enough sleep, exercise, building strong ties with friends, family, and community, and, as much as possible, to minimize stress! The most important relationship you will have in your life is with yourself, so treat yourself well to make life worth living. 2. The Joy of Business Business is fun. Entrepreneurs coordinate resources — land, labor, capital, and ideas — and through the craft of entrepreneurship organize them in such a way as to provide a product or service to the public at a profit. If being in business is not enjoyable, this is the wrong profession for you. 3. Opportunity Recognition There are two ways to find opportunities: the external method, where you see opportunities where others see obstacles and problems, and the internal method. To tap into this, make a list of your hobbies, interests, and skills in one column, and business opportunities they could generate in another. Whenever you encounter a problem, think of how it could be solved. 4. The Economics of One Unit This is the cornerstone of a business plan. Many young people dream of how they will make millions. Instead, think of how you will develop and sell one product or one hour of service and make a profit; everything will build from that An economics of one unit will have three numbers: the price of one unit, the cost of goods sold (which is subtracted from the price, leaving the “contribution margin” — or gross profit). This number is key, as it will be added to the fixed costs per unit. The resulting number will be your profit (before taxes). 5. The Laws of Supply and Demand The law of supply and demand is the most important economic concept of all! Discovered by Alfred Marshall, a Cambridge University don, in 1890, the internal method: make a list of your hobbies interest and skills in one column, and in the other list all the business opportunities that come from the list. The laws of supply and demand interact to determine prices, which communicate information to entrepreneurs and consumers about the best way to allocate resources. 6. Vision, Mission, Strategy, and Tactics Find a vision of the world you want to create. Develop a clear mission for your business. Get your economics of one unit accurate and simple.Write down your strategic goals making them measurable with numbers and a timeline. Your strategy can be presenting a product at a lower cost than your competitor, having a better focus on the consumer market, or differentiating it in the marketplace. Your tactics will use your resources to achieve your strategic goals. 7. Don’t Compete, Create a Competitive Advantage How will you compete? What will be your business edge? How can you create a winning business model with an advantage? Like the Grateful Dead, the secret is to find a niche where you can be not necessarily the best but the only. Find out what everyone else is doing and then do something different. Your competitive advantage can be based on a unique skill, intellectual advantage, or by selling at an unusual time or location. The alternative to uniqueness is to be ordinary, and sell the same product at the same price as everyone else, making minimal profits if any at all. 8. Wealth Creation, Risk, and Uncertainty Most wealth is created through a business opportunity combined with ownership. In an entrepreneurial endeavor, wealth is created by building a business that has a profit and can be sold for a multiple of earnings. Both mental and monetary wealth is the end result of a successful entrepreneurial career. Being an entrepreneur without ownership can be a nightmare-other people make the profit on your insights. The sooner an individual understands the difference between salary and profit, the better. Ownership of future profits can be sold for a multiple of earnings. Salaries and wages are compensation for work in the present, and hence are worth less than profits — which are projected into the future. All investments take place in uncertain world with risk. The investment of resources to create a business needs to be wisely balanced against the risk involved. 9. Marketing. Putting Yourself in the Customer’s Shoes If you listen to your customers and ask honest questions, they will tell you they need and want. People are fascinating, and you can learn so much about their problems if you put yourself into their shoes by asking the right questions and then engage in “active listening.” Out of this will come business insights that can help you find your market niche. Be sure to name your business simply and accurately. Always be building your brand through excellent products, customer service, and good communications. Marketing is the process of creating a product or service that meets the needs of consumer profitably. 10. Time Management The most important resource of all is time. Time is precious. Once spent, you can never get it back. Do not waste it. By planning how you will spend your time for the coming day, week, month, and year, you will be much more likely to achieve your goals and live a productive and positive life. 11. Leadership and giving back Every great business leader is aware of the community around them and looks to satisfy a community need. Philanthropy is good business, and if you are known as someone who cares about your community, more people will want to do business with you. Winston Churchill said: “We make a living by what we get; we make a life by what we give.” It is likely that everyone will have some problem to solve that is not answerable from a purely financial profit point of view. Solving this kind of problem creates a great deal of pleasure, and “psychic” income helps build communities. Ethical and philanthropic behavior will always end up helping one’s career and business. 12. Financial Literacy: Financial Statements, ROI, and Breakeven Financial literacy is a subset of entrepreneurship education. It’s important to understand that giving time, energy, and money to your business is an investment that will help you to meet your goals. Utilizing the tools of compound interest and the time value of money are indispensable to create wealth. It is imperative that every young person learn basic record keeping, and how to read income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements. Return on investment (ROI) is calculated by dividing the profit from a venture by the amount of the investment. What the ROI will be should guide you on your investments. And “breakeven” is important because it tells you whether or not you can afford your marketing plan. Understanding how to save and invest your money is vital to create and sustain wealth. 13. Ownership From a very early age, everyone should be exposed to the idea of owning assets. The best way to teach this is to discuss the concept openly. The responsibilities of ownership as a good citizen should be discussed as well. Without understanding and appreciating the concept of ownership, you will be less likely to understand who has financial power in the community, and you will be less likely to own the output of what you produce. This is what has been missed by so many leaders who discuss the importance of math, reading, and writing skills-who owns the output from people’s skills is as important as the skills themselves. The most successful entrepreneurs, like Madonna and Russell Simmons, own their own economics of one unit. 14. Lengthening Time Preference Perhaps the most important characteristic of success for a young person is the ability to wait for gratification — to save money and plan ahead in order to control future time. Aside from goal setting, this can be taught best by a standard wholesale-to-retail lesson. Before you go to the wholesaler, draw a chart and think about how this event will take place. Much of success in life is thinking about what to do now to make your goals come true in the future. Entrepreneurship, and all of business, is about investing ideas, money, and time in the present to get benefits in the future. I would argue that working on lengthening time preference is one of the most important skills you could develop. 15. The Basic Sales Call Preparing appropriate sales material is as vital as learning to be an active listener. What problems does your product solve? Who is your audience? Answering these questions is important. View selling as both learning and teaching. By identifying the consumer need, you can educate the customer on the benefits of your product or service. A sales call a day can help develop a skill that can be used anywhere in the world at anytime. Practice your sales call, so you are communicating clearly the benefits of your product. Good sales-call procedure will give you feedback on your product and help continue to improve it. 16. Goal Setting Goal setting is something every young person should practice every week. Having long-term goals (ten years), intermediate-term (five years), and short-term (one year), and immediate (the next month) is absolutely crucial for success. Make sure to make them visual, so you see them. Always set goals that are numerical and measurable-for example: I want to have five new customers by next month or I will lose ten pounds by April. 17. Public Relations, Media, and Communications Communications strategy is a key asset for a young entrepreneur to understand. Learning to communicate to other people by being covered by the media is valuable. The key concept here is to learn the craft of story development. A story is helpful if people can understand it and it motivates them to buy your product or service. A good story would show how your product had a positive effect on someone. Remember, though, it must be 100% accurate. 18. Teamwork Ultimately, all success is based on teamwork. Learning to pick people that you can work with successfully, training them, and providing them with incentives is absolutely essential for success. Playing sports or engaging in any other activity that involves teamwork will help build these skills. 19. Think Globally The world is much smaller now, and even young entrepreneurs need to think globally, taking into account markets and suppliers worldwide. Being respectful and educated on different cultures will be critical to success. Travel for young people is also important, to develop an international perspective and knowledge of foreign markets. 20. Technology Wealth is created through the inter-connectivity of the Internet and progressive use of technology. Stay up-to-date with technology to keep your business vibrant and growing. The ultimate technology rests on the intellectual skills of entrepreneurship and ownership. 21. Study Economic Theory and History Learn basic macro-economics, particularly trade-cycle theory. Starting a business during a recession can be a huge advantage because the cost of land, materials, and labor are cheaper. Many business failures are blamed on entrepreneurs but, in reality, they are the result of companies being founded or expanded during the boom portion of the trade cycle. It is better to start a business when resources and prices are lower. Save money during a booming economy to survive and be ready to take best advantage of the opportunities available when others go out of business. There are three main theories of trade cycles: Monetarist, Austrian, and Keynesian — study them all. 22. Be Prepared for Failure and Success Many business ventures do not work out, often through no fault of the entrepreneurs. Your business success or failure will not be a reflection of your self-worth. Be prepared for setbacks in any venture you undertake. Be mentally strong and positive at all times. Plan for the possibility of closing the business and learning from the setback. Get experience in a field before starting a business in it. Uncontrolled growth can also lead to mistakes and business failure. 23. How to Write a Business Plan There is an adage that goes, “Failing to plan is planning to fail.” A lot of young people have visions and dreams. By putting your vision and goals in writing, your chances of success will improve. The format NFTE has developed is good for youth and can be found in our books, Entrepreneurship: Owning Your Future (Steve Mariotti and Tony Towle) and Entrepreneurship (Steve Mariotti and Caroline Glackin). Go to www.nfte.com for more info. 24. The Golden Rule Treating others as you would have them treat you will help you achieve success in life, both personal and financially.

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Obama Distances Himself From New Economic Sputters

June 4, 2011

WASHINGTON — Distancing himself from new economic sputters, President Barack Obama on Saturday declared that recent “headwinds” were the result of high gasoline prices, Japan’s disastrous earthquake and jitters over a European fiscal crisis. He cited the U.S. auto industry’s resurgence as an inspiration for a broader recovery. “We’re a people who don’t give up, who do big things, who shape our own destiny,” the president said in his weekly radio and Internet address . The message was taped Friday during Obama’s visit to a Chrysler plant in Toledo, Ohio. And the address was hardly different than the remarks he offered to about 350 Chrysler workers. The White House has spent practically every day this week drawing attention to the industry comeback and taking credit for Obama’s unpopular decision to bail out Chrysler and General Motors and guide them through bankruptcy in 2009. Like Friday’s comments to Chrysler workers, Obama’s address Saturday did not mention the bleak unemployment numbers announced Friday for the month of May. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the economy last month created only a net 54,000 jobs and unemployment inched up to 9.1 percent. “We’re facing some tough headwinds,” Obama said. “Lately, it’s high gas prices, the earthquake in Japan and unease about the European fiscal situation. That will happen from time to time.” The Bush and Obama administrations pumped $80 billion in taxpayer money into Chrysler and GM, with Obama guiding the companies into bankruptcy. The companies are now reporting profits, Chrysler has paid back all but $1.3 billion of its federal infusion, and the White House declared this week that the overall loss to taxpayers will be $14 billion, far less than initially expected. Delivering the Republican address , Sen. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee cast the Obama administration as too friendly to labor unions and said industries are more likely to flourish in environments where unions don’t hold as much sway. He noted that foreign auto companies like Nissan and Volkswagen have chosen to set up plants in his home state, a state with right-to-work laws that don’t require employees to join unions or pay union dues. He cited the case of Boeing, which was accused last month by the National Labor Relations Board of retaliating against union workers in Washington state who went on strike in 2008 by locating a new assembly line for its 787 aircraft in South Carolina, a state with right-to-work laws. The NLRB is seeking a court order that would force Boeing to return all 787 assembly work to Washington. “Our goal should be to make it easier and cheaper to create private-sector jobs in this country,” Alexander said. “Giving workers the right to join or not to join a union helps to create a competitive environment in which more manufacturers like Nissan and Boeing can make here what they sell here.” WATCH:

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Online Labor Demand Rises To Pre-Recession Levels As Labor Market Slows

June 2, 2011

NEW YORK — The unemployment rate remains high, but online demand for workers has reached levels not seen since before the recession, according to a new report. Online labor demand, as measured by help-wanted advertisements posted on the Internet, rose in May by 148,800 listings to a high of 4.5 million advertised vacancies. That number hasn’t been reached since May 2005, according to the Conference Board , a global independent business membership and research association. The findings mean that as of April, for every three workers out of a job, there is one advertised vacancy. That stands in contrast to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest ratio , which showed approximately four unemployed workers for every opening in March. “Overall, the trend in online advertised vacancies has been positive this year,” said June Shelp, Vice President at the Conference Board and author of the report. But economists, including Shelp, caution to take the Conference Board’s numbers with a grain of salt. The caveat, Shelp said, is that “while we have now returned to the pre-recession levels of labor demand, the big difference today is the larger number of unemployed workers that are seeking jobs compared to four years ago.” Positions advertised online are not a guarantee of employment, and vacancies can take months to fill. Plus, a given vacancy might not be filled by an unemployed worker. In fact,

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Tom Doctoroff: Advertising in China: What’s New, What’s Not

June 2, 2011

It seems many of the big Chinese ad agencies are not headed up by Chinese people. Why is this the case? Did Westerners bring the “advertising industry” with them? The first clients who advertised big — i.e., with any degree of professionalism — were the large FMCG companies such as Unilever and P&G. When I arrived in Shanghai, Unilever was approximately 70% of our revenue. Today, this is certainly not the case. Local brands are absolutely critical to any agency’s bottom and top lines. If a 4A’s company doesn’t have a roster of local clients, they are simply not a player on the Chinese adscape. The fact that there are still many expatriates who run agencies — actually, there are fewer of them now today, but foreigners are still reasonably represented at the top and down a few levels as well — is one of the disappointments of our industry. (I included expatriate Chinese from Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore in this group.) Of course, there will always be a need for for individuals with an “internationalista” outlook for clients with operations centralized outside of the mainland. But advertising, as an industry, has had difficulty in developing senior local talent. It’s not a question of salary, that’s for sure. Nor is it necessarily a failure of “intent to groom.” The biggest challenge is, simply put, advertising is not fundamentally respected as a career path for many locals. They prefer careers that are more concrete, with a clearer “return on investment.” An adman’s key strength is the ability to articulate the abstract and lead clients to embrace what can’t be proven. We have to be conceptual warriors and this doesn’t appeal to many Chinese who tend to take refuge in the concrete. There are too many talented 35-year-olds who abandon the industry for a more “respectable” career. The ones who stick with it, the ones who have the capacity to inspire, are worth their weight in gold and we do everything possible to retain and promote them. JWT China has state-owned and private sector clients. How would you describe working with the state-owned organizations? All local companies have certain things in common. They are hierarchical and the big boss wields absolute control. So maintaining close relationships with the CEO, or founder, is absolutely critical. Establishing trust, rooted in a combination of value-added and empathy, is absolutely critical. That said, there are differences. Large state-owned enterprises tend to be much more Byzantine in terms of decision making, with one eye focused on the market and the other on political imperatives. Smaller local (private) enterprises are more entrepreneurial, more apt to take risks and decide things relatively quickly. They also tend to be more receptive to “unsafe” creative. The “joys” of working with local companies, despite the operational and relationship management challenges, is that they are genuinely passionate about their brands. Their ambitions are huge. They also have a natural appreciation of the ins and outs of both the Chinese market and the Chinese consumer, leading bolder experimentation, assuming the stars are aligned in terms of clear objectives and open communication. From an ad agency’s perspective, it’s very much high-risk, high-return. I’m as proud of the work we do for our local clients such as Anta or COFCO (China’s largest food conglomerate) as I am from some of our largest multinational companies such as Ford or Nokia or Microsoft. Supposedly Chinese marketing managers find it very difficult to adopt new creative ideas. If you could say five things to these people what they be? The pitch I always give to local business leaders is simple: robust brand equity — i.e., active consumer loyalty for a brand — leads to premium prices and a high P/E ratio. Beloved brands are, to state the obvious, emotional propositions, ones that fuse functional and emotional appeal. Most need convincing that when function and emotion are “aligned,” they are mutually-reinforcing, and there is no need to “choose” between tactical and thematic, between nuts and bolts and evocative messages. But they need a reorientation to help them grasp how “brand ideas” are constructed and I think JWT is quite good at translating global brand building truths into a “paradigm” or “framework” that leads to long-term propositions and justifies price premiums — of both their brands and JWT’s services! So, to answer your question, we must always reinforce the link between business imperatives and creativity. We can never take it for granted that this tenet is implicit. I can’t think of a “five things” to say to them, other than what I’ve mentioned. But the analytical robustness of any recommendation has to be empirically bullet proof. Once they endorse the logical thought flow, from underlying business problem to creative solution, minds open, and decision makers are able to put themselves more easily in consumers’ shoes, folks who, it goes without saying, do appreciate creativity. JWT places a lot of importance on local knowledge. With China being such a vast and diverse place with various tierings, and customs and values of people differing from province to province, how does one advertise to the Chinese population? Is there a one size fits all? Of course, one size doesn’t fit all. But there are “unifying themes” and “variations” on these themes. It’s like a Bach Fugue; there is a primary melody with interpretations of that to address target consumer and geographic considerations. Some roll their eyes when I harp on about a Chinese “worldview” that is fundamentally different from Westerners’ basic motivations. But smirks be damned. In order to touch hearts, brands need to be brought into alignment with this worldview. After 13 years here, I am fundamentally convinced that there is a unifying “Confucian” conflict — between self-protection and status projection — that brands have a fundamental role in resolving. Unlike practically any other country (Korea and Vietnam come closest), China is both boldly ambitious (ladders are meant to be climbed and meritocracy is a cherished value) and regimented, with hierarchical and procedural booby traps for anyone who hasn’t mastered the “system.” This tension between upward mobility and fear-based conformism shows up everywhere, in every business meetings, in every struggle with a mother-in-law, in every new generation release on the internet. Brands that help consumers simultaneously stand out and fit in have the greatest appeal. Diamonds, for example, are popular because their sparkle is conspicuous but, at the same time, elegant and understated. The same goes for Mont Blanc’s six-point logo. Rejoice shampoo’s proposition fuses confidence and softness. All communications needs to position products as a “means to an end,” with clear return on investment. And all products must dramatize “public consumption” in order to justify a price premium. That said, this “unifying theme” needs to be interpreted for different socioeconomic tiers. In lower-tier markets, for example, definitions of success are more short-term, more inextricably linked to home and hearth. We also tend to emphasis that protection side of the equation because non-middle class consumers — people who have benefited less from waves of economic reform — are less convinced that the world is safe. Likewise, brands are less familiar is Tiers 3-5 cities so communications has to be simpler and more direct and the role of in-store experience and reassurance is even more fundamental than in primary markets. And young consumers are definitely more into self-expression — though this is about ego affirmation, not Western individualism, a point many of my industry colleagues disagree with me on — than older age cohorts. So, yes, age and income are “variables” that very much need to be considered and, no, one size does not fit all. But you don’t need to completely reinvent the wheel every time you develop a strategy for a different market target. I also believe the claim “China is many countries” is often (but not always) a canard, a red herring. China is unified by timeless cultural imperatives. We frequently confuse geographic discrepancy with socio-economic and age differences, two fundamental confounding variables. I know you get asked this all the time but how do brands build a name across China? Western firms seem to roll-in to China with products, like the Apple iPhone, but really only consumers living tier 1 cities such as Beijing and Shanghai can afford them. Do big brands like Apple need to create an almost ‘value’ range to reach the lower-tier consumers of China? Are the lower tier consumers even on Western brand agendas? There is a middle class in every city. Once you realize that individuals earning 20,000 RMB per month in both Shanghai and Wuhan have more in common with each other than do denizens of specific cities in at different socio-economic strata, things become simpler. Apple is a middle class hit… everywhere. Inland consumers who can afford, say, a Ford Focus are almost as sophisticated in terms of buying an auto as their coastal cousins, with the caveat that care must be taken to keep messages simpler for first-time, usually lower-tier, buyers. That said, brand tiering is a fundamental challenge for brands as the expand geographically. Practically all of Procter & Gambles products have cheaper variants and they have pursued this strategy with a relative degree of success. In the Apple era, Nokia’s non-smart phone range at the rural fringe is a powerful weapon to win “the next billion” mobile phone buyers. Chinese revere scale and “big brands” — i.e., ones that extend across price tiers — reassure; to boot, any brand that does not boast both margin and scale will have a difficult time taming unwieldy distribution channels. However, we need to keep in mind that the “cheaper” products are targeted at less affluent consumers. Extreme care must be taken to avoid equity adulteration of the premium variants as the brand is extended downward. This is a tricky minuet and some of the best marketers have fallen by upsetting a delicate price-value equation. As a rule, expensive brands should be used to build image and tactical promotion of inexpensive versions should take place closer to the point of purchase. What are the key differences and similarities between Chinese and Western consumers? There are two key differences. First, all benefits in China are externalized; Chinese egos are huge — I always say every Chinese has a dragon in his or her heart — and they demand societal acknowledge for their contributions to and success within society. They are not individualistic in a Jeffersonian sense as are Westerners, who respond, in many cases, to “internalized” benefits. Luxury goods, for example, are a tool for career advancement in China. In the West, they are often appreciated for their own intrinsic quality. In shower gel, the leading Western brands have “sensual indulgence” as a core proposition. In the PRC, the key benefit is “an energizing shower experience that helps me start the day with a kick.” (Sometimes, this difference can be quite subtle. Europeans go to spas to relax. Chinese go to recharge batteries.) Second, there is absolutely, positively no cynicism towards brands in China. As said above, they are vital tools of advancement. Furthermore, in a constricted mass media environment and a society with a narrow definition of success, brands are the most powerful badges of identity. Brand communications is, by far, the freest form of expression and, for that reason, beloved. Of course, the Chinese are suspicious shoppers — they don’t take quality for granted to reassurance in terms of both quality and impact on image is critical — but there isn’t cynicism. We have not entered a post-modern communications era here, and I doubt we will, given fundamental role brands play in consumers’ identities. It’s worth noting that the digital world differs here too. “Emotional release” is a critical driver — there are already 150 million micro-bloggers! — and this urge is fueled by on-line anonymity. For Facebook to succeed in China, it would have to scrap its “real name” policy. Despite the explosion of lifestyle alternatives and individualism as an aspiration, the Chinese are constricted when it comes to self-expression. In this respect, the internet is a blank canvas on which to paint dreams. Of course, e-commerce is exploding in the PRC, just like anywhere in the world. But, again, “transactional safety” must be reinforced and most cash is usually exchanged only after consumers have been given a chance to kick the tires of a product. Advertising is about persuasion, I guess this might be a question of Chinese culture, but if the Government said all its people ‘should,’ not must, sign-up to a ‘China Mobile’ tariff do you think they would? Interesting question. Let’s put it this way — it would certainly help. The Communist Party is still the quintessence of authority and its “endorsement” would reassure many safety-seeking buyers. To boot, the backing of the government would translate into immeasurable distribution/channel clout. On a lighter note, people may not realize this but you were actually lucky enough to be an Olympic torch bearer at the Beijing Olympics, how did the opportunity come about and what was it like? I loved being a Torch Bearer. I was invited by a client, Lenovo, that was also an official sponsor of the event. Despite all the propagandist stage management, the moment my foot hit the pavement — we all got dispatched from buses at our designated running points — the crowd went wild. Not for me, of course, but for the torch and everything it represented about China’s ascension to superpower status. Adding more emotion to the moment was the Sichuan earthquake, from which the nation was still recovering, and the media furor over the Tibetan protests. People were afraid the Olympics would, in the yes of the world, “fail.” So the Torch relay, at a historic juncture, morphed into a national declaration of perseverance. It was moving, even inspiring. This interview was originally published on ChinaSMACK, a leading website on China’s media, advertising and popular culture.

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The Fabulous Fab’s Cautionary Tale: Data Never Dies

June 1, 2011

Fabrice Tourre (a.k.a. the “Fabulous Fab”), the Goldman Sachs mortgage trader who has become synonymous with Wall Street shenanigans, has now become synonymous with something else: the worst possible way to dispose of an old computer. Among the more titillating passages in a front-page New York Times expose about Tourre’s private correspondence with his lawyers is a disclaimer that the newspaper obtained his e-mails via a computer someone found “discarded in a garbage area in a downtown apartment building.” The computer was then passed on to someone else, who noticed that it continued to pull down fresh e-mails — messages sent to someone with Tourre’s name, a name suddenly in the news. The e-mails, correspondence between the trader and his lawyers, discussed how to handle accusations that he and his employer, Goldman Sachs, had played a key role in engineering a near-financial apocalypse. Most of us have more mundane matters taking up space on our computer hard drives, yet we would still rather avoid giving the world easy access to our private messages, be they fragments of past romantic associations, candid assessments of coworkers or mere reviews of the food at our friends’ dinner parties. We would surely prefer to keep our personal finances and legal correspondence clear of the public eye and away from scam artists. The Fabulous Fab was reckless, it seems, leaving his e-mail client program intact and not password protected, making it vulnerable to people with designs on finding a way in. Yet that recklessness provokes a question that resonates far from Wall Street and into every home office: How do you keep computer data truly private? And how do you put files in the trash, beyond prying eyes, in the digital age? The Tourre case serves as a warning that without careful digital document shredding, data — even on devices discarded in the trash and forgotten — never really dies. The banker’s casual approach to managing files on his computer underscores the need for greater vigilance among all owners of electronics, and in particular, the imperative to fully destroy documents on abandoned devices. As Tourre would no doubt agree, the cost of losing the data on a cellphone or laptop can be far greater than the price of the hardware itself. Security experts warn that information stored on a computer can put someone at risk for identity theft and fraud, or even turn colleagues, cousins and colleges friend into targets for nefarious scammers and hackers. With the information on your computer, someone “can almost take over your life,” said Chet Wisniewski, a security expert with Naked Security , a blog run by anti-virus software company Sophos. “They can basically communicate to your friends, log into your accounts, and impersonate you because so many of us use the Internet as a primary communication mechanism for relationships, whether it’s with the power company or with a person.” One of the greatest dangers is that on a computer or cellphone, “delete” doesn’t necessarily do what it says. Erasing a file on a laptop essentially removes the arrow pointing to the data, but not the data itself. Wisniewski likened file deletion to erasing an entry in a book’s table of contents; it removes a note telling readers that a piece of information is on page 200 of the book, while leaving page 200, and the information on it, intact. Safely discarding a device essentially requires rewiring its brain, the hard drive, to induce amnesia. To ensure photos, bank statements and love letters on a laptop, tablet or phone have been properly gutted, users must wipe the hard drive using the machine’s Secure Erase tool, which offers the equivalent of “a loaded gun aimed right at your data.” The feature acts as an e-shredder that overwrites all the tracks on a hard drive to destroy every last byte and bit of information that’s ever been stored. Using a blunt object also works. The most surefire way to discard of data is to physically destroy the hard drive itself, experts say. Before his wife threw away her old hard drive, Phil Blank, an analyst with Javelin Strategy & Research, said that he “took a hammer to it, gave it a good whack” and “that was the end of that.” But users can’t always plan for their devices’ departure. The glitzy, pricy gadgets from the likes of Apple, Google, Sony and Samsung are vulnerable to theft, and experts say it’s all but inevitable that these stores of personal and professional information will be lost or stolen at some point. The growing memory of our gadgets and their portability has made it easier than ever to put data on these devices and then lose them, often without recourse. “Now thousands of file cabinets worth of company data can be put on something that slips into your pocket,” said Wisniewski. “The risk of data loss is much larger, whether it’s intentional or accidental, because employees, for convenience, are able to carry around large quantities of data on something the size of my fingernail.” Experts suggest that users, at the very least, put passwords on their devices to prevent a thief from easily logging in. They also recommend encrypting the data, a process that turns the information on the gadget into gibberish to anyone that doesn’t have the proper passcode required to unlock it. Encryption software can be purchased from companies like Norton, downloaded for free from open-source providers like TrueCrypt, or found as an optional setting on some gadgets, such as Apple’s iPhone, that users can set up at their convenience. Yet even the best data defenses can potentially fall to determined attackers. “Fraud often trumps security,” said Blank. “Security guys think in square boxes, and fraudsters think outside the box.”

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Robert Zevin: Playing Chicken With the Debt Ceiling

June 1, 2011

In the days before people could do anything “virtually” on the Internet, restless teenage boys used to play a game called “chicken” in which two contestants would race their cars directly toward each other. The first to swerve in order to avoid crashing was the “chicken” and loser of the game. No doubt there are still places in the world where teenagers vent their surplus testosterone by playing a similar game with real automobiles. However, even if there were no such place, the political leaders of the western world have rushed in fearlessly to perpetuate new versions of the same old game. First the Republicans in the House of Representatives, under pressure from passionate new Tea Party members, insisted on substantial cuts in the still unapproved budget for the present fiscal year, which is more than half over, before they would agree to vote for a resolution to continue meeting the government’s daily obligations. After weeks of rhetorical exchanges about how many tens of billions of dollars to cut out of federal spending for the balance of the year, and negotiating sessions behind closed doors that were designed to leak, the parties announced their agreement to “cut” the federal budget, by implication for the balance of this fiscal year (which ends September 30th) by about $39 billion. This was a surprising outcome, since the last time the Republicans had played this game, with Newt Gingrich driving them to a collision, the result was that the Republicans were simply crushed, like a compact car trying to play chicken with a truck on a one-lane bridge. As it happens the $39 billion in cuts was more than ninety-nine percent political theatrics. A few days after the big deal was announced, the Congressional Budget Office, staffed by both parties, estimated that the actual reductions in spending this year would be only about three hundred million dollars, or less than one percent of the amount claimed. The rest of the $39 billion was all reductions in amounts that had previously been authorized, sometimes in times long past, but never appropriated for spending this year or any other year. Most of it, the Budget Office concluded, would never have been spent in any case. The good news is that there has not been even a small dent in the fiscal stimulus that the United States is getting and still very much needs just to keep the economy sputtering along at nine percent unemployment. The bad news is that there is a bipartisan, indeed an all-inclusive social consensus, to substitute make-believe and play acting for any depiction of real problems and issues, let alone solutions. Now we have the spectacle of the Republican House saying it will not authorize an increase in the federal debt ceiling (which of course was predictable given the budget they passed six weeks ago) unless there are substantial additional “reductions” in spending. Again it would seem to be an uneven game between a truck (we must honor our obligations and maintain the high credit worthiness of our country) versus a motorcycle (we must start cutting our multi-trillion dollar deficits a little bit at a time or force a default on the government debt or an interruption of Social Security payments by stopping that truck). Those of us who think we are still living in the real world are left to hope that there will be no collision with possibly devastating effects on the still wounded national and global economies. At the same time we know full well that if the collision is avoided it will be with yet another theatrical concoction, purporting to show that Obama has again made significant concessions to hasten the day of a balanced budget (with, of course, no new taxes).

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‘From The Brink Of Extinction’

May 28, 2011

WASHINGTON — Vice President Joe Biden on Saturday credited the Obama administration’s intervention for the American auto industry’s recovery from “the brink of extinction” and pointed to Chrysler’s early repayment of the federal loan that saved it from disaster. “This announcement came six years ahead of schedule – and just two years after Chrysler Corp. emerged from bankruptcy,” Biden said in the administration’s weekly radio and Internet address. “It’s a sign of what’s happening throughout the American automobile industry.” Biden also said that General Motors, which went through bankruptcy and has come back strong, announced in the past week that its Detroit Hamtramck factory in Michigan will run three shifts for the first time in its 26-year history. “You know, that’s 2,500 more good, paying jobs,” he said. Biden, who provided the weekly address because President Barack Obama was traveling in Europe, credited the efforts of the Obama administration for the resurgence of the auto industry through its assistance. “Because of what we did, the auto industry is rising again,” Biden said. “Manufacturing is coming back. And our economy is recovering and it’s gaining traction.” Obama will visit a Chrysler plant in Toledo, Ohio, next Friday to discuss the carmaker’s recovery. Chrysler announced Tuesday the repayment of $5.9 billion in U.S. loans and $1.7 billion in loans from the governments of Canada and Ontario. It covers most of the federal bailout money that saved the company after it nearly ran out of cash in 2009 and went through a government-led bankruptcy. GM and Chrysler were on the verge of collapse in the final days of the Bush administration after Congress failed to approve an emergency loan package. The Bush administration gave the companies $17.4 billion in loans and required them to develop a restructuring plan by mid-February 2009. Obama’s administration pumped billions more into the carmakers later that spring but won concessions from industry stakeholders, allowing them to push GM and Chrysler through bankruptcy court in the summer of 2009. The Republicans’ weekly address focused on the party’s plan to create jobs. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., said boosting employment requires cutting taxes, reducing regulations, completing bogged-down trade agreements with several countries and expanding energy exploration in the United States. “All of these elements will help encourage growth and long-term economic stability,” Cantor said. “By putting in place policies that encourage businesses to expand, innovators to innovate and allows leaders to lead, we will not only begin to put our budget on a path to balance, but we’ll get Americans working again.” ___ Online Array Array

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Ian Fletcher: Why the Budget Is the Wrong Thing to Fight About

May 28, 2011

The country is consumed right now with the fight over the Federal budget, specifically Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) plan to balance it by (mostly) radically cutting spending on medical programs, especially Medicare. The recent Republican loss in New York’s 26th district’s special election — which had more to do with my friend Jack Davis running on a third-party ticket — has been interpreted as a referendum against the Ryan plan. And the states are, of course, tied up in budget battles of their own, most visibly the aggressive push to cut the cost of public employees by curtailing their unions. Unfortunately, while all these fights are, of course, important, they are still, fundamentally, the wrong economic issue for America to be fighting over right now. Because despite Rep. Ryan entitling his plan “The Path to Prosperity,” none of these controversies touch upon the true fundamentals that determine that prosperity. All these controversies are, at bottom, about one thing: rebalancing public-sector spending. And it is fantasy to imagine that this is the key to putting our economy back on track. To hear some Republicans talk, you’d think that if only we squeeze hard enough, and go whole hog for their eat-your-spinach skinflint economics, prosperity will return. This is the elevation of deferral of gratification to the master key (if not the sole!) economic virtue, from which all else will follow. If only we’re tough enough on ourselves right now. Unfortunately for Republicans, that kind of tightwad economics rightly died in the Keynesian revolution over 70 years ago. It’s not so good for Dems either. To hear some of them talk, you’d think that if only we pump up government spending enough, perhaps financed by higher taxes on the rich, we can pump-prime our way back to prosperity. This is the elevation of counter-cyclical Keynesianism (spend your way out of a cyclical downturn) into non-stop stimulation of the economy, whether its problems are cyclical or structural. The fundamental economic problem we face right now isn’t recession–in which case we could just sit back and wait for it to end, with a little help from the standard playbook. It is the structural underperformance of the U.S. economy, for reasons that weren’t caused by the recession and won’t go away when it ends. As a result, Republicans and Democrats are arguing about how to divide the pie, when the real question is how to bake more pie in the first place. So… what is the solution? What do we have to fix? The number one thing is trade. Free trade collapsed a very long time ago. What we have today is not free trade at all, it’s ruthlessly manipulated trade — manipulated by America’s big trading partners, starting with China but including many others. And we’re doing nothing to stop them. America’s titanic ( $497 billion last year) trade deficit is ripping the guts out of industry after industry, but we have no answer. And you can’t gut industry after industry and expect not to reduce your GDP. If we didn’t have this horrendous trade deficit, we simply wouldn’t be fighting many of these budget battles. Why? because we’d have a larger GDP, so tax revenues would be higher. Spending on public benefits would be lower, and painlessly so, because fewer people would be poor and middle-class people would have more money to take care of themselves. How much GDP have we already lost? The Economic Strategy Institute estimated in 2001 that the trade deficit was shaving at least one percent per year off our economic growth. This may not sound like much, but because GDP growth is cumulative, it compounds over time. Thus economist William Bahr has thus estimated that America’s trade deficits since 1991 alone (they stretch back unbroken to 1976) have caused our economy to be 13 percent smaller than it otherwise would be. That’s an economic hole larger than the entire Canadian economy. Size of GDP is, ultimately, more important than size of government. We can have legitimate liberal vs. conservative arguments over the latter, but even from a conservative point of view, it’s far more important to have a government that conduces to a GDP large enough to provide all the things we want than to have a small government per se . Growing the economy may, in fact, call for increased spending in some areas. Even a precocious third-grader can see why even fiscal tightwads should make an exception for spending that ultimately brings in more money than it costs. What kind of spending are we talking about? One kind is government programs to fill in the gaps in the private sector’s innovation capabilities. Such programs fund, for example, technology research to bridge the gap between pure science and corporate research and development (R&D). This is the so-called “Valley of Death” in the innovation system: the private sector can’t make money doing such research, but it can’t ultimately keep generating new products unless somebody does it. So it’s appropriate for the federal government to step in. America’s hidden history of doing this stretches from the Internet back to founding father Alexander Hamilton. We still have such programs today, but on a tiny scale compared to what we need — and tiny compared to what our rivals do. Thus the giant stimulus package it passed in 2009 included money for every Congressional pork barrel under the sun, but nothing for one of the industrial-policy programs with the best track record of saving and creating jobs: the Manufacturing Extension Partnership, despite a campaign promise to double the program’s funding. This program maintains a network of centers in every state designed to help American manufacturers adopt innovative technologies. One evaluation found that it generated $1.3 billion a year in cost savings for manufacturers and $6.25 billion in increased or retained sales, all for an annual federal outlay of only $89 million. Another good but underfunded program is the Technology Innovation Program. Free market ideologues have repeatedly tarred this program as corporate welfare despite the fact that an audit by the respected National Academy of Sciences vindicated its claim to generate economic benefits far exceeding its cost. One single $5.5 million grant, for example, seeded development of the small disk drive industry, which enabled creation of the iPod, the iPhone, TiVo and the Xbox. This is how you make an economy grow — not by squeezing the economy you already have, or borrowing yet more money to “stimulate” it. As a result of America’s neglect of such programs, there is a starvation of basic and applied research in areas such as biocomputing, computer architecture, software, optoelectronics, aeronautics, advanced materials, factory automation, sensors, energy conversion and storage, nanomanufacturing, robotics and green energy. We are in danger of having our economy fail to grow because we were so busy arguing over the harvest that we neglected to plant the seeds.

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Google, Tres Amigas Aim To Fix America’s Electrical Grid With Novel Technologies

May 27, 2011

Anaheim, Calif. — During the American wind industry’s annual convention this week, two of the boldest proposals for the future of renewable industry didn’t involve bigger or better turbines. They’re instead focusing on the comparatively unsexy issue of America’s creaking electricity grid. The Internet giant Google and an upstart New Mexico-based company called Tres Amigas want to transform the way power gets from wind farms and solar power arrays to your house. Both plans rely heavily on unproven technologies: Google and other investors plan to build a 350-mile long undersea cable off the Atlantic coast , while Tres Amigas wants to create a 22-square mile superconductor “Superstation” to synchronize the nation’s three major electrical grids. As the U.S. becomes more and more energy-hungry, the country needs more generating capacity. And with most Americans resistant to new projects anywhere near cities and suburbs, new plants need to be placed far away from population centers to win approval. Google’s backbone could open up hundreds of miles of ocean territory for offshore wind farms, and the Tres Amigas project would open up wind and solar projects in remote parts of New Mexico and Texas. Both of these projects are taking place within a larger push to improve the American antiquated electrical grid, said Peter Fox-Penner, a principal at The Brattle Group, a consulting firm that worked on the Google-supported project’s application to federal regulators. “All segments of the industry are building more transmission now,” Fox-Penner told HuffPost. “Primarily to integrate renewable into the grid, abut also for reliability and other reasons.” Google’s support for the Atlantic Wind Connection — a 37.5 percent stake — could be a good public relations move for a company that relies on energy-sucking data centers to run its core business. According to an estimate in Harper’s , just one data center “can be expected to demand about 103 megawatts of electricity — enough to power 82,000 homes, or a city the size of Tacoma, Washington.” Environmental organization Greenpeace has dinged the company for not relying enough on renewables (while acknowledging that it performed far better than some tech companies, like Apple). So far Google has invested a total of $400 million in clean energy projects. Google says it is pursuing the projects both because they make good business sense and because they make the company more environmentally responsible. The Atlantic Wind Connection project is still at an early stage, and no one knows if Google and its co-investors can pull it off. One of the project’s lead developers has said the scheme is “about as risky as you can get.” The engineering challenges of laying all the cables and connecting them to both wind farms and the grid on land are daunting — and Google isn’t even proposing to build any wind farms itself. Offshore wind is still a young segment of the industry, and no project at this scale has yet been completed: Google’s plan would create development opportunities for up to 6,000 megawatts of power when all of Europe, the world leader in offshore wind, only has about half that many megawatts online. The project got good news last week when the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved a 12.59 percent profit rate, but other federal and state regulators still need to weigh in. And while Google says the project, which is 22 miles off the coast, is far enough off-shore to ensure that any offshore wind farms that sprout up along the electricity backbone aren’t a visual nuisance, the long saga of the Cape Wind project shows just how tenacious seashore dwellers can be about their ocean views. Watch Google’s Rick Needham, the company’s green business operations director, explain the Atlantic Wind Connection and Google’s green energy plans. Building a wind farm on land is less technically challenging than building one far offshore, but it still has to connect into the grid somehow. America’s grid is so balkanized that when the wind is blowing hard in Texas and electricity is cheap there, California utilities can’t buy the cheap power and pass the savings along to customers. While grid difficulties are not unique to renewable energy, the sector has the most to gain from improvements because wind and solar depend on the weather and thus need to be able to send their extra energy across large distances as flexibly as possible to balance out supply fluctuations, experts say. Tres Amigas is trying to connect the western, eastern and Texas power grids — an idea the federal government proposed but failed to execute in the 1950s — with a $1 billion plus project that could ultimately send 30 gigawatts zooming across the country. Because the three grids don’t quite operate on the same frequency, Tres Amigas would use novel technology to synchronize the electricity: superconducting high-voltage direct current cables and new computer programs. Power would first need to be converted from AC to DC, then whipped around the superstation on the superconducting cables and finally be converted back to AC to be shipped off to another grid. The company that makes the high-tech cables, American Superconductor, is an important investor in the project, but it has recently weathered fire for management problems . The market for this plan, though, remains untested. Texas in particular seems reluctant to open up its grid — and its wind farms — over fears of utility bill increases. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, moreover, cautioned Tres Amigas last March over the lack of detail in its applications. The man behind Tres Amigas, however, is optimistic — CEO Phil Harris plans to break ground this year on the first part of the project, which will transmit a few gigawatts between the three grids. The final superstation plans to be able to transfer around 30 gigawatts. See Tres Amigas founder and CEO Phil Harris talk about the project. Even if these splashy projects never get off the ground, the push towards renewable — now mandated by many state laws — means the U.S. will likely need many more transmission lines in the future. “There’s the highest activity probably in the history of the country right now,” said Fox-Penner.

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Tech’s Talent Buying-Spree: The Top 15 ‘Acqui-Hires’

May 27, 2011

Forget free iPads, stock options and the other perks Internet companies dangle in front of prospective hires. In the technology industry’s ongoing war for talent , Google, Facebook and a handful of deep-pocketed firms are using a more potent weapon to get the best engineers: the “acqui-hire.” An “acqui-hire” is when a company buys a startup to obtain the startup’s team, rather than to own its products or technology, which it often kills after the purchase. In the past year, the venture capital flowing into the tech startup space has spawned a wave of small companies that is siphoning talent away from larger Internet firms. Faced with a shortage of engineers, large firms are going on startup buying-sprees and using the founders and engineers they pick up to fill high-level positions. Many analysts say it is the latest sign of a tech bubble. Too many startups are finding funding, talent is being spread too thin and the firms with the greatest resources are resorting to drastic (and costly) measures to land the best and brightest. “Some per capita values seem hard to justify,” Randy Komisar, a venture investor, told the New York Times . “People will look back and realize that they overpaid in some cases. But in the heat of the moment, they may not feel they have a lot of options,” Komisar said. Others worry the practice is having a chilling effect on innovation, as tech giants gobble up engineers and shut down their operations just when they’re hitting their stride. Some Web startups are only alive for less than half a year before the team is acqui-hired and the product is terminated. “Facebook has not once bought a company for the company itself. We buy companies to get excellent people,” CEO Mark Zuckerberg told the 2010 Y-Combinator class last October . Since then, the acqui-hires — or “man-quisitions,” as less politically correct analysts have called them — continue to take place in innovation hubs across the country. Below are some of the most notable acqui-hires in recent years:

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Does Google Finally Have A Winner?

May 26, 2011

Google’s latest product marks another attempt by the Internet giant to launch a new business that will help it move beyond its highly profitable (and decade-old) search engine. So does Google finally have a winner? Or is it repeating the same mistakes that doomed its other ventures? The new service, Google Wallet , uses near-field communication technology to enable users to pay for purchases, redeem coupons and track loyalty points by swiping their smartphones over readers at registers. Google will not take a cut of transaction fees. Rather, the company aims to leverage the information it collects about what consumers buy, where they purchase and how frequently in order to sell ads, coupons and loyal reward programs to local retailers via its Google Offers service. In essence, Google aims to apply its success with online advertising to offline activity in the physical world. Google Wallet is just the latest in the company’s long line of ambitious product launches, which have spanned everything from social networking to e-commerce. Many of these efforts have been ignominious flops: Google Buzz fizzled and led to a settlement with the FTC over “deceptive” privacy practices; Google Wave, the “email killer,” proved far too complex for most users; Google TV has failed to make inroads into the living room; and Google Music lacks the simplicity and record label deals to compete with Apple’s iTunes. Time and again, Google has unveiled products that seem far better suited to Silicon Valley labs than to the marketplace, announcing half-baked, still-in-beta services that appeal to early adopters but lack the ease-of-use of other devices and products. Google Wallet could prove to be no different, though much will depend on Google’s success in wooing not only industry stakeholders, but also retailers and shoppers, to trade plastic for phones. With Google Wallet , Google seems to have learned some lessons from past missteps and has rallied others in the payment industry to join in its mission to make wallets obsolete. Whereas Google Music launched without the support of music studios, Google Wallet had the blessing of Citibank, MasterCard, First Data, and Sprint, each giants in their field and integral in processing credit card payments via phones. Executives from all four companies joined Google at its press conference in New York Thursday to praise the effort. Citi executive Paul Galant noted that Google Wallet marked an “important milestone in digital and mobile banking.” “This shows some increasing maturity on Google’s part,” said Forrester analyst Charles Golvin of Google’s partnerships. “They did a good job of making sure that they partnered with the key players in the industry and that what they released was aligned with those partners’ interests and business models.” Yet Google seems to have made less progress convincing retailers to get on board, which could be dangerous. Over 100,000 merchants in the United States have terminals that enable them to accept contactless payments via phones and other devices, but Google announced that, so far, just 15 merchants will participate in its Offers program to present coupons, loyalty credit and other perks via the Wallet app. In this sense, Google Wallet looks a lot like Google TV: once again, the company has the infrastructure but lacks the goods. With its television product, Google worked with Logitech and Sony to produce the hardware that was necessary–just as Google has convinced Mastercard, Citi and others to support the payment system Google Wallet depends on. But it failed to win over the networks that control access to must-see TV, just as Google has, to date, been unable to attract more than a handful of retailers to provide discounts and perks. “I think there’s a huge issue about having the sufficient critical mass of merchants–and merchants you want to shop at,” said Alistair Newton, a research vice president with Gartner, a research firm. “The merchants that will sign up for this sort of thing can often be merchants who are desperate for sales, not necessarily merchants I go to make purchases from.” Google, known for innovative but not always intuitive products, also faces the challenge of convincing consumers to toss their wallets for a product the company itself has noted is still in its early stages. Analysts warn that consumers may have little tolerance for a work-in-progress service, especially one that integrates sensitive credit card information and involves something as basic and crucial as paying. Who wants to arrive at a store, try on clothes, wait in line, then discover they’re unable to pay because of technical difficulties with a product still in its beta form? The potential inconvenience Google Wallet could cause far outweighs carrying a three-inch piece of plastic. Google Wallet may also have what proves to be a crippling number of exceptions: It isn’t available for every credit card, on any smartphone, in every city in the nation or at every retailer. In fact, Google Wallet will launch in just two cities and on one phone, the Nexus S 4G. “There are a lot of underlying questions whose answer is ‘not very many,’” said Golvin. “How many phones are there that people can use it with? Not very many. How many card issuers out there let you put existing payment credentials in there? Not very many. How many merchants can you pay with this technology? Not zero, but in the grand scheme of all merchants in the U.S., not very many. You have to ask yourself, what’s the value? Why would a consumer be motivated to not pull out a credit card and use a phone instead?” Yet Google’s greatest advantage may ultimately come from the forward-thinking nature of this product. Analysts note that the company’s past failures have often been services that tried to compete with existing brands, such as PayPal, Twitter and iTunes. Google Wallet is the first service of its kind, and it plays to Google’s strengths collecting and leveraging vast quantities of user data to sell lots and lots of ads. Google’s control over smartphones–its Android operating system powers a lion’s share of smartphones in the U.S.–may also it give the company the leverage it needs to convince additional partners to bring NFC technology to more and more handsets. “Google doesn’t do well when it tries to replicate someone else’s business,” said Nick Holland, a senior analyst at the Yankee Group, a firm specializing in tech industry research. “Whereas the other initiatives were frankly copycats, [Google Wallet] is new… No on else is doing this, there’s no one else out there in the U.S. with a digital wallet that can store credit cards on a mobile device.” No one else for now. Apple is rumored to be developing its own digital wallet solution .

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Google Doesn’t Want Your Money, Just Your Data

May 26, 2011

Google may have unveiled a digital wallet, but it’s not your money they care about. It’s your data. The Internet giant announced plans to roll out the Google Wallet this summer, a mobile app that allows users to swipe their phones at the register using near-field communication (NFC) technology, instead of carrying a credit card. Google has partnered with Citibank, Mastercard, First Data, Sprint and certain retailers to back up the product, making it the first digital wallet to launch with such a comprehensive collection of partnerships. But analysts say despite Google’s speed in getting its product to market and the range of its partnerships, the digital wallet space is still too young to proclaim Google the definitive victor, especially given that the Google Wallet will work on only one phone, with one credit card, from one bank, for a handful of retailers. And it may not even be competitors in the payment space that truly have cause for concern, but rather the other Internet companies looking to tap into the consumer data Google now has special access to. “They have some very significant challenges ahead of them,” said Rick Oglesby, senior analyst at the Aite Group, a financial research and consulting firm. “There are a tremendous number of players in the space. Google’s hitting the ground first. They have a big first mover advantage, but they have to work hard to continue the momentum.” Experts say that Google’s approach to its Google Wallet sticks with traditional payments methods: It relies on users’ existing credit cards and uses the infrastructure that has been in place for years. By partnering with the companies that manage payments at every level–the banks that issue cards, the card companies, the companies behind cash register technologies, the security management for the card data–Google makes it clear that it’s not trying to displace traditional financial institutions or ways of paying. Google won’t be taking a cut of transaction fees, leaving credit card companies’ revenue untapped. Instead, Google Wallet targets at other companies aiming to provide their own digital wallet systems. The field is already crowded with players ranging from credit card company Visa to upstart startup Square to wireless-carrier effort ISIS. Though not yet official, it’s also been rumored that Apple’s next iPhone will have near field communication . “Moving data back and forth to effect a payment — they’re not going to try and worry about that,” said Oglesby. “What they’re also trying to do, what all these providers are trying to do, is this new business component: providing a wallet.” Though the Google Wallet is the most complete iteration of a digital wallet to hit the market, its limitations mean that for ordinary people, it won’t make much of a splash. “I would say from a consumer perspective this isn’t terribly significant,” said Oglesby. “But for the payment business it’s very significant. It’s someone getting on the ground and taking NFC and saying, ‘I’m going to make it work today.’” Analysts say the ultimate benefit Google gains from controlling such mobile wallet technology may have very little to do with the payments space. Through the Wallet, Google could gather huge amounts of customer data keyed to local actions and mobile use, a hugely valuable set of data that everyone on the web is working to get their hands on. “The competition will be with the coupons and the targeted offers,” said Aaron McPherson, a practice analyst at IDC Financial Insights, a financial technology research firm. “Because that’s where you have to get customer information — that’s the holy grail.” Google could use its access to customers to drive the successful deployment of its Google Offers , the system of local deals and discounts tied to the Wallet. By serving up these special offers at the time people plan to spend money, specified to the place they are shopping, Google will have a huge advantage over rival deals sites like Groupon. “They get very, very granular information pertaining to what you buy, when you buy, and that information is gold,” said Nick Holland, senior analyst at the Yankee Group, a tech research firm. “In one fell swoop they have trumped anything from Foursquare or Groupon. Now Google owns location-based advertising in the physical world.” While Visa has announced plans to utilize NFC in the future in conjunction with its own digital wallet, and wireless-carrier backed ISIS has also decided to turn to credit card companies for a mobile wallet service, neither has actually delivered a concrete plan for how they might do so. Despite the fanfare, Google Wallet will have to work towards widespread customer adoption to achieve success. Though the digital wallet may appeal in a futuristic way, it’s not clear that it will actually be more convenient than carrying a physical wallet. After all, if your cell phone runs out of battery, there too goes your money. “When it comes to making payments with your primary credit card in North America, it’s really not that difficult. It’s not like it’s a big challenge for me to take my credit card out and swipe it,” said Brad Strothkamp, a principal analyst at Forrester Research, a tech research firm. “Any time we try to get the customer to change habits, there has to be a significant incremental benefit to the customer to essentially change behaviors they’ve had for 20 years. That is not a small task.” Google and its competitors face the difficulties inherent in forging a path through unexplored territory. It’s worth noting that the three major contenders in the field all come from entirely different industries, with Visa as the only company that actually deals in payments as its primary business. Google has managed to sidestep the rest by bringing in the wide cast of operators that control the different aspects of the payment industry, though it remains to be seen if financial companies like Visa, also pursuing mobile payments, will prove to be uncooperative in the future. Still, experts suggest that competitors might have anywhere from 12 to 18 months to ready their products without falling too far behind, as customer adoption of such technologies will likely be hampered by the lack of NFC enabled phones, small number of participating retailers, and the cooperation of credit cards and banks. “It’s great that they’re doing this and it will get everybody moving a little more quickly, but it’s not going to take over the world tomorrow,” said Oglesby. “It’s still going to take some time to play out.”

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