january

Canadian wholesale sales climb 3% in January

See more here:
Canadian wholesale sales climb 3% in January

{ 0 comments }

By Vincent Del Giudice March 16 (Bloomberg) — China and Japan, the two biggest foreign holders of Treasuries, reduced their positions of U.S. government debt in January as a measure of demand for American financial assets fell to a six-month low. China remained the biggest owner abroad of Treasuries, even as its holdings dropped by a net $5.8 billion to $889 billion, according to Treasury Department data released yesterday in Washington. Japan cut its holdings in January by $300 million to $765.4 billion, the report showed. China has been a net seller of Treasuries for three straight months, the longest such stretch since the end of 2007. Chinese officials have questioned the dollar’s role as a reserve currency and recently sought assurances about the safety of U.S. government debt as the budget deficit widens to a projected record $1.6 trillion this year. “Foreign central banks stopped buying Treasuries in January,” said Chris Rupkey , chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “If this were to continue, if China were to stop recycling its dollars into U.S. Treasuries, it could have dire implications for Main Street America in that mortgage rates could move higher.” International buying of long-term equities, notes and bonds totaled a net $19.1 billion, compared with net purchases of $63.3 billion in December, the report showed. That was the smallest net gain in purchases since July. Weaker Than Expected Economists in a Bloomberg News survey projected long-term U.S. financial assets would show a net increase of $47.5 billion in January, according to the median of four estimates. The selling by China and Japan may be temporary, as the world’s largest economy rebounds from a recession and as concern lingers about government debt of European Union countries such as Greece, economists said. “In the short haul, there is no need for alarm as portfolio changes often occur at the start of the year,” Rupkey said. “The U.S. will continue to see renewed inflow later this year as its economy remains a relative oasis of calm now that other sovereign credits are experiencing troubles with debt loads.” Including short-term securities such as stock swaps, total investment flows show foreigners sold a net $33.4 billion after net buying of $53.6 billion the previous month. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao this week sought assurances that the U.S. will protect the value of China’s dollar assets. At a press conference in Beijing marking the end of China’s annual parliamentary meetings two days ago, Wen said dollar volatility is a “big” concern and “I’m still worried” about China’s U.S. currency holdings. ‘Concrete Steps’ Wen urged U.S. officials to “take concrete steps to reassure investors” about the safety of dollar assets, repeating concerns that he expressed a year ago, sparked by a growing U.S. fiscal deficit. China’s share of U.S. bills, notes and bonds in January amounted to 24 percent of the total $3.7 trillion in Treasuries owned by investors abroad, up from 19 percent three years ago, according to Treasury data. Win Thin , a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York, said China is selling bills it bought during the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 and buying longer-term notes and bonds. “China, as well as many other countries, loaded up on the short end during the crisis,” Thin said in an e-mail. “Now that the crisis has eased, these holders are simply letting these short-end holdings mature and then extending out the curve, rather than rolling it back into the short end again.” Russia’s Exposure Russia’s Treasury holdings in January fell by a net $17.6 billion to $124.2 billion, the lowest level in a year, the report showed. The Treasury’s reporting on long-term securities captures international purchases of government notes and bonds, stocks, corporate debt and securities issued by U.S. agencies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , which buy home mortgages. Total foreign purchases of Treasury notes and bonds were $61.4 billion in January compared with purchases of $69.9 billion in December. Foreign demand for U.S. agency debt from companies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac showed net selling of $5 billion in January, the first drop in three months. Net foreign purchases of equities were $4.3 billion in January after net buying of $20.1 billion in December. Investors sold a net $24.6 billion in U.S. corporate debt in January, the eighth straight month of selling. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in January dropped 3.7 percent, the biggest monthly fall since February 2009. The Dollar Index , a gauge of its strength against six other major currencies, rose 2.1 percent in January. U.S. Treasuries gained 1.58 percent in January, according to an index compiled by Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit. To contact the reporters on this story: Vincent Del Giudice in Washington at Or vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net

View post:
China, Japan Reduced Holdings of U.S. Treasury Debt in January

{ 0 comments }

China, Japan Reduce Holdings of U.S. Treasury Debt as Global Demand Wanes

March 15, 2010

By Vincent Del Giudice March 16 (Bloomberg) — China and Japan, the two biggest foreign holders of Treasuries, reduced their positions of U.S. government debt in January as a measure of demand for American financial assets fell to a six-month low. China remained the biggest owner abroad of Treasuries, even as its holdings dropped by a net $5.8 billion to $889 billion, according to Treasury Department data released yesterday in Washington. Japan cut its holdings in January by $300 million to $765.4 billion, the report showed. China has been a net seller of Treasuries for three straight months, the longest such stretch since the end of 2007. Chinese officials have questioned the dollar’s role as a reserve currency and recently sought assurances about the safety of U.S. government debt as the budget deficit widens to a projected record $1.6 trillion this year. “Foreign central banks stopped buying Treasuries in January,” said Chris Rupkey , chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “If this were to continue, if China were to stop recycling its dollars into U.S. Treasuries, it could have dire implications for Main Street America in that mortgage rates could move higher.” International buying of long-term equities, notes and bonds totaled a net $19.1 billion, compared with net purchases of $63.3 billion in December, the report showed. That was the smallest net gain in purchases since July. Weaker Than Expected Economists in a Bloomberg News survey projected long-term U.S. financial assets would show a net increase of $47.5 billion in January, according to the median of four estimates. The selling by China and Japan may be temporary, as the world’s largest economy rebounds from a recession and as concern lingers about government debt of European Union countries such as Greece, economists said. “In the short haul, there is no need for alarm as portfolio changes often occur at the start of the year,” Rupkey said. “The U.S. will continue to see renewed inflow later this year as its economy remains a relative oasis of calm now that other sovereign credits are experiencing troubles with debt loads.” Including short-term securities such as stock swaps, total investment flows show foreigners sold a net $33.4 billion after net buying of $53.6 billion the previous month. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao this week sought assurances that the U.S. will protect the value of China’s dollar assets. At a press conference in Beijing marking the end of China’s annual parliamentary meetings two days ago, Wen said dollar volatility is a “big” concern and “I’m still worried” about China’s U.S. currency holdings. ‘Concrete Steps’ Wen urged U.S. officials to “take concrete steps to reassure investors” about the safety of dollar assets, repeating concerns that he expressed a year ago, sparked by a growing U.S. fiscal deficit. China’s share of U.S. bills, notes and bonds in January amounted to 24 percent of the total $3.7 trillion in Treasuries owned by investors abroad, up from 19 percent three years ago, according to Treasury data. Win Thin , a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York, said China is selling bills it bought during the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 and buying longer-term notes and bonds. “China, as well as many other countries, loaded up on the short end during the crisis,” Thin said in an e-mail. “Now that the crisis has eased, these holders are simply letting these short-end holdings mature and then extending out the curve, rather than rolling it back into the short end again.” Russia’s Exposure Russia’s Treasury holdings in January fell by a net $17.6 billion to $124.2 billion, the lowest level in a year, the report showed. The Treasury’s reporting on long-term securities captures international purchases of government notes and bonds, stocks, corporate debt and securities issued by U.S. agencies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , which buy home mortgages. Total foreign purchases of Treasury notes and bonds were $61.4 billion in January compared with purchases of $69.9 billion in December. Foreign demand for U.S. agency debt from companies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac showed net selling of $5 billion in January, the first drop in three months. Net foreign purchases of equities were $4.3 billion in January after net buying of $20.1 billion in December. Investors sold a net $24.6 billion in U.S. corporate debt in January, the eighth straight month of selling. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in January dropped 3.7 percent, the biggest monthly fall since February 2009. The Dollar Index , a gauge of its strength against six other major currencies, rose 2.1 percent in January. U.S. Treasuries gained 1.58 percent in January, according to an index compiled by Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit. To contact the reporters on this story: Vincent Del Giudice in Washington at Or vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

IEA: China’s oil demand surges 28% in January

March 14, 2010

IEA: China’s oil demand surges 28% in January

Read the full article →

French budget deficit hits $12.6b in January

March 14, 2010

French budget deficit hits $12.6b in January

Read the full article →

Bank Of America To Publish Political Donations

March 13, 2010

New York City Comptroller John C. Liu has scored a coup in an ongoing national effort to increase corporate transparency after the U.S. Supreme Court lifted a century-old ban on corporate political spending. Fearing the ramifications of the January court ruling, which opens the way for millions of corporate dollars to be poured into this year’s elections, the trustees of the city’s pension funds and other major institutional investors have begun to demand more transparency and accountability from the companies in which they invest.

Read the full article →

Retail sales in New Zealand rose more than forecasts in January

March 12, 2010

Retail sales in New Zealand rose more than forecasts in January

Read the full article →

India’s factory output surges 16.7% in January

March 12, 2010

India’s factory output surges 16.7% in January

Read the full article →

Foreclosures in U.S. Rise at Slowest Pace in Four Years on Obama Efforts

March 11, 2010

By Dan Levy March 11 (Bloomberg) — U.S. foreclosure filings rose at the slowest pace in four years in February as the government sought to reduce record bank seizures, RealtyTrac Inc. said. A total of 308,524 properties received a notice of default, auction or seizure last month, or one in 418 households, the Irvine, California-based seller of default data said today in a statement. Filings rose 6 percent from a year earlier, the smallest increase since RealtyTrac began tracking annual changes in January 2006. They declined 2 percent from January. The Obama administration’s main effort to keep people in their homes resulted in more than 830,000 trial loan modifications for delinquent borrowers through January, according to the Treasury Department. Still, filings were up for the 50th straight month in February on an annual basis and topped 300,000 for the 12th consecutive month, RealtyTrac said. “This leveling of the foreclosure trend is not necessarily evidence that fewer homeowners are in distress and at risk for foreclosure, but rather that foreclosure prevention programs, legislation and other processing delays are in effect capping monthly foreclosure activity,” RealtyTrac Chief Executive Officer James J. Saccacio said in a statement. About 116,000 mortgages have been permanently modified under the government’s program, compared with as many as 4 million targeted by December 2012. New data will be released March 15, Meg Reilly , a Treasury spokeswoman, said in an e-mail. Bank Repossessions Bank seizures are increasing the number of homes for sale. Lenders took back 78,683 properties last month, up 6 percent from February 2009 and down 15 percent from a peak in December, RealtyTrac said. More than 2 million empty homes were on the market in the fourth quarter, according to the Census Bureau. “Government programs are helping to keep more supply from coming out,” Brian Bethune , chief financial economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, said in an interview. “We’ve got a disjointed market where most of the housing supply is coming from foreclosures rather than building new homes.” Bethune predicted a “high” rate of foreclosures for at least the next 12 months. RealtyTrac expects record bank seizures this year, said Rick Sharga, executive vice president for marketing. Default notices totaled 106,208 in February, down 3 percent from a year earlier and up 3 percent from January, RealtyTrac said. Defaults peaked at more than 142,000 in April. Scheduled auctions totaled 123,633 last month, up 16 percent from February 2009 and down 1 percent from January. The peak was more than 144,000 in August. Nevada, California Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate for the 38th straight month in February, with one in 102 households receiving a filing. Arizona and Florida tied for second at one in 163 households. California ranked fourth at one in 195 households, followed by Michigan at one in 226. Utah, Idaho, Illinois, Georgia and Maryland rounded out the 10 highest foreclosure rates. The most filings were in California , with 68,562, down 15 percent from a year earlier. Florida was second with 54,032, up 16 percent, and Michigan was third at 20,028, a 59 percent rise. Illinois had the fourth-highest total filings with 17,312, Arizona had 16,718 and Texas had 12,638. The six states accounted for 61 percent of the U.S. total, RealtyTrac said. Georgia, Ohio, Nevada and Maryland rounded out the top 10. New York Area Filings rose 14 percent from a year earlier to 3,750 in New Jersey. They climbed 3.3 percent to 2,294 in Connecticut, and dropped 20 percent to 3,237 in New York. Las Vegas had the highest foreclosure rate for cities with a population of more than 200,000. One in 90 households there got a filing. Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida, was second at one in 92. Six metro areas in California or Arizona had decreases in filings from January, with Phoenix showing the biggest drop at almost 18 percent. Port St. Lucie, Florida, showed a 66 percent increase, said RealtyTrac, which sells default data collected from more than 2,200 counties representing 90 percent of the U.S. population. To contact the reporter on this story: Dan Levy in San Francisco at dlevy13@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Trade Deficit in U.S. Unexpectedly Shrinks as Oil, Automobile Imports Drop

March 11, 2010

By Shobhana Chandra March 11 (Bloomberg) — The trade deficit in the U.S. unexpectedly narrowed in January as demand for foreign oil and automobiles dropped. The gap decreased 6.6 percent to $37.3 billion from a revised $39.9 billion in December as Americans imported the fewest barrels of crude oil in a decade, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Exports decreased 0.3 percent, the first decline since April, on fewer shipments of commercial aircraft and autos. Imports may rebound in coming months as oil prices climb, consumer spending improves and a growing economy prompts companies to replenish depleted inventories. By the same token, the recovery in global growth and a weaker dollar is projected to lift overseas sales at manufacturers including Cisco Systems Inc. , signaling factories will keep leading the U.S. expansion. “We are starting to see a gradual recovery in global trade,” said Tim Quinlan, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, who projected the gap would narrow. “Consumers and businesses are dipping their toes back into spending here and abroad.” Fewer Americans filed first-time claims for jobless benefits last week, a report from the Labor Department also showed. Initial applications dropped by 6,000 to 462,000 in the week ended March 6. The number of people receiving unemployment insurance increased, while those getting extended benefits fell. Stocks, Dollar Stock-index futures extended earlier losses and the dollar fell after the reports. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index decreased 0.3 percent to 1,141.8 at 8:56 a.m. in New York. The dollar bought 90.53 yen, erasing earlier gains and little changed from late yesterday. The trade gap was projected to widen to $41 billion, from an initially reported $40.2 billion in December, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 73 economists. Projections ranged from deficits of $37 billion to $44 billion. Exports decreased by $500 million to $142.7 billion. Auto demand from abroad fell by $544 million, while shipments of commercial aircraft declined by $474 million. Fewer Planes Sales of American-made planes may have rebounded last month. Boeing Co. delivered 23 aircraft for overseas buyers in January, down from 38 the prior month, according to figures from the Chicago-based company. Foreign deliveries climbed to 28 in February. American-made goods have become more attractive for overseas buyers following a decline in the dollar last year. It has fallen about 11 percent against a trade-weighted basket of currencies from the U.S.’s biggest trading partners from a five- year high reached on March 9, 2009. “Rising exports will be an important driver for manufacturing,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. San Jose, California-based Cisco , the biggest maker of networking equipment, said it sees “underlying strength” in the economy and that customers are saying they need to spend more on technology. “We see very positive spending trends across all of our business segments” and across the world, Ned Hooper, who is in charge of Cisco’s consumer unit and mergers and acquisitions, said on March 3 at a conference in San Francisco. Imports Fall Imports fell 1.7 percent to $180 billion from $183.1 billion in December. The U.S. imported 245 million barrels of crude oil in January, the fewest since February 1999. The decrease swamped an increase in oil prices. Purchases of foreign-made automobiles and parts dropped by $1.48 billion, led by decreases in purchases of German and Japanese cars. After eliminating the influence of prices, which are the numbers used to calculate gross domestic product, the trade deficit shrank to $41 billion from $43.8 billion. The January figure was in line with the fourth-quarter average, indicating trade so far is not influencing growth estimates. The economy, emerging from the worst recession since the 1930s, expanded at a 5.9 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, the most since 2003. Exports accounted for 2.32 percentage points of growth, the biggest contribution in 13 years. Focus on Exports President Barack Obama has said the U.S. needs to shift its growth toward expanding exports and investment rather than consumption as in the past. He plans to increase government- backed export financing for small businesses by 50 percent, to $6 billion a year. Stronger overseas sales were one reason Parker Hannifin Corp., the world’s largest manufacturer of hydraulic equipment, raised its 2010 earnings estimate in January. “We’re coming off the bottom,” Donald E. Washkewicz, chairman and chief executive officer of the Cleveland-based company, told analysts. “Asia is extremely strong.” The International Monetary Fund, in a January report, projected that emerging-market and developing economies will expand 6 percent as a group this year, compared with 2.1 percent for developed nations. Today’s report showed the trade gap with China was little changed at $18.3 billion from $18.1 billion in the prior month. China, the world’s biggest exporter, this week reported its trade surplus shrank to the lowest level in a year in February as exports surged 46 percent from a year earlier, while imports rose 45 percent. The nation has prevented any rise in the yuan against the dollar since July 2008 to aid exporters. To contact the reporters on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Trade Deficit in U.S. Unexpectedly Shrinks as Oil, Automobile Imports Drop

March 11, 2010

By Shobhana Chandra March 11 (Bloomberg) — The trade deficit in the U.S. unexpectedly narrowed in January as demand for foreign oil and automobiles dropped. The gap decreased 6.6 percent to $37.3 billion from a revised $39.9 billion in December as Americans imported the fewest barrels of crude oil in a decade, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Exports decreased 0.3 percent, the first decline since April, on fewer shipments of commercial aircraft and autos. Imports may rebound in coming months as oil prices climb, consumer spending improves and a growing economy prompts companies to replenish depleted inventories. By the same token, the recovery in global growth and a weaker dollar is projected to lift overseas sales at manufacturers including Cisco Systems Inc. , signaling factories will keep leading the U.S. expansion. “We are starting to see a gradual recovery in global trade,” said Tim Quinlan, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, who projected the gap would narrow. “Consumers and businesses are dipping their toes back into spending here and abroad.” Fewer Americans filed first-time claims for jobless benefits last week, a report from the Labor Department also showed. Initial applications dropped by 6,000 to 462,000 in the week ended March 6. The number of people receiving unemployment insurance increased, while those getting extended benefits fell. Stocks, Dollar Stock-index futures extended earlier losses and the dollar fell after the reports. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index decreased 0.3 percent to 1,141.8 at 8:56 a.m. in New York. The dollar bought 90.53 yen, erasing earlier gains and little changed from late yesterday. The trade gap was projected to widen to $41 billion, from an initially reported $40.2 billion in December, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 73 economists. Projections ranged from deficits of $37 billion to $44 billion. Exports decreased by $500 million to $142.7 billion. Auto demand from abroad fell by $544 million, while shipments of commercial aircraft declined by $474 million. Fewer Planes Sales of American-made planes may have rebounded last month. Boeing Co. delivered 23 aircraft for overseas buyers in January, down from 38 the prior month, according to figures from the Chicago-based company. Foreign deliveries climbed to 28 in February. American-made goods have become more attractive for overseas buyers following a decline in the dollar last year. It has fallen about 11 percent against a trade-weighted basket of currencies from the U.S.’s biggest trading partners from a five- year high reached on March 9, 2009. “Rising exports will be an important driver for manufacturing,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. San Jose, California-based Cisco , the biggest maker of networking equipment, said it sees “underlying strength” in the economy and that customers are saying they need to spend more on technology. “We see very positive spending trends across all of our business segments” and across the world, Ned Hooper, who is in charge of Cisco’s consumer unit and mergers and acquisitions, said on March 3 at a conference in San Francisco. Imports Fall Imports fell 1.7 percent to $180 billion from $183.1 billion in December. The U.S. imported 245 million barrels of crude oil in January, the fewest since February 1999. The decrease swamped an increase in oil prices. Purchases of foreign-made automobiles and parts dropped by $1.48 billion, led by decreases in purchases of German and Japanese cars. After eliminating the influence of prices, which are the numbers used to calculate gross domestic product, the trade deficit shrank to $41 billion from $43.8 billion. The January figure was in line with the fourth-quarter average, indicating trade so far is not influencing growth estimates. The economy, emerging from the worst recession since the 1930s, expanded at a 5.9 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, the most since 2003. Exports accounted for 2.32 percentage points of growth, the biggest contribution in 13 years. Focus on Exports President Barack Obama has said the U.S. needs to shift its growth toward expanding exports and investment rather than consumption as in the past. He plans to increase government- backed export financing for small businesses by 50 percent, to $6 billion a year. Stronger overseas sales were one reason Parker Hannifin Corp., the world’s largest manufacturer of hydraulic equipment, raised its 2010 earnings estimate in January. “We’re coming off the bottom,” Donald E. Washkewicz, chairman and chief executive officer of the Cleveland-based company, told analysts. “Asia is extremely strong.” The International Monetary Fund, in a January report, projected that emerging-market and developing economies will expand 6 percent as a group this year, compared with 2.1 percent for developed nations. Today’s report showed the trade gap with China was little changed at $18.3 billion from $18.1 billion in the prior month. China, the world’s biggest exporter, this week reported its trade surplus shrank to the lowest level in a year in February as exports surged 46 percent from a year earlier, while imports rose 45 percent. The nation has prevented any rise in the yuan against the dollar since July 2008 to aid exporters. To contact the reporters on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

German exports drop 6.3% in January

March 11, 2010

German exports drop 6.3% in January

Read the full article →

Goldman Sachs Offers Small Business Owners Inane Advice In The New York Times

March 10, 2010

One thing that we all learned from the financial crisis is that Goldman Sachs is a “great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity” — its name to be spat aloud with an expletive to ward off evil spirits and succubi. But that’s why the good people at Goldman have undertaken a long and artful campaign to convince America that they’re not the rapacious dicks they’ve been made out to be. Part of that charm offensive is “a $500 million pro bono project last November called 10,000 Small Businesses,” which is “intended to kick-start small businesses, especially in inner cities, by providing applicants with mentoring, scholarships and — through grants to community development institutions — investment capital.” And, hey ho! Lookee what’s in the New York Times today! An article on this “10,000 Small Businesses” program , attesting to the sort of smart business practices that tomorrow’s entrepreneurs can be taught by the sorts of Goldmanites who have started small businesses of their own. If the Times truly captures the essence of the advice Goldman is able to dispense, then would-be small business owners are sure to take away some pretty sophisticated business lessons — if, by “sophisticated,” you mean “banal.” To wit, here are the teachings that Goldman Sachs appears to be ready to pass on to you: “LEARNING TO ACT QUICKLY” : Yeah, see, a couple of Goldman employees opened a home security company, but got bogged down in a bunch of bullshit “brand building exercises” that were suggested by the “marketing consultant” that they hired, for some reason. They eventually fired this guy, and the lesson learned was this: When you are doing something stupid, stop doing it, quickly . You can’t learn that at business school! (Seriously, you probably can’t.) “BE WARY OF EXPERTS” : HAHAHAHAAHAHA. Ahh, irony . Moving on! “A NEW VOCABULARY” : There’s a long anecdote provided about a woman who opened a maternity classes/accessories business, and how she once gave a PowerPoint presentation that was filled with the sort of jargon that only a Wall Street quant could understand, and her employees were like, “Whaaaa?” So she stopped doing that! And now, YOU CAN STOP DOING IT, TOO. I think it’s fun to compare and contrast this article with this January 2006 segment produced by NPR , which detailed how former Enron employees were taking the lessons of Enron’s collapse and starting their own small businesses. The big takeaway from the Enron-entrepreneurs was that once you’ve been caught up in the mess created when the company you work for decides to decimate a portion of the economy and devour the future, you learn that you better get as far away from that disaster as you can and make your own way in the world. The reporting is of an entirely different quality. I suspect the reason why is that the Enron-entrepreneur story was not handed to a freelancer by a company flack (as I strongly suspect this Goldman Sachs-small biz story was). By the way, remember that woman who started that maternity business and then spoke in Wall Street gibberish for a while until her employees told her to stop? At the end of the Times piece, she suggests that something Goldman Sachs can do to help out small businesses was to hold a “financing competition” — “like a real-life version of Donald Trump’s show,” she says. Ask yourself: if that suggestion had come in the first paragraph of this article, would you have bothered to continue reading it all the way to the end? No, you would not, because you are not some sort of idiot. [Would you like to follow me on Twitter ? Because why not? Also, please send tips to tv@huffingtonpost.com -- learn more about our media monitoring project here .]

Read the full article →

Wholesale Inventories in U.S. Unexpectedly Decline 0.2% as Sales Advance

March 10, 2010

By Shobhana Chandra March 10 (Bloomberg) — Inventories at U.S. wholesalers unexpectedly fell in January for a second month, signaling companies had difficulty keeping pace with demand. The 0.2 percent decline in the value of stockpiles followed a revised 1 percent decrease in the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Sales jumped 1.3 percent, the most since November, after a 1.2 percent gain. Rising orders at companies such as Texas Instruments Inc. indicate production will keep increasing in coming months to bring inventories more in line with sales. Efforts to replenish stockpiles helped the economy expand at a 5.9 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, the fastest in more than six years. “We expect companies to increase inventories over the course of 2010, which will contribute to growth,” Kim Whelan, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, said before the report. “It’s just a question of how fast they are willing to add to inventory.” Inventories at wholesalers were forecast to rise 0.2 percent after a previously estimated drop of 0.8 percent for December, according to the median estimate of 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from a decline of 0.5 percent to a gain of 0.9 percent. At the current sales pace, wholesalers had enough goods on hand to last 1.1 months, the lowest since record-keeping began in 1992 and down from 1.12 months in December. Sales have increased for 10 straight months. Wholesalers make up about 30 percent of all business stockpiles . Factory inventories, which make up about 38 percent of the total, climbed 0.2 percent in January, the Commerce Department reported on March 4. Retail stockpiles, which make up the rest, will be included in the March 12 business inventories report. Fourth Quarter Companies slashed stockpiles at a record pace last year when demand slumped. As sales began to revive, efforts to rebuild inventories contributed 3.88 percentage points to gross domestic product in the fourth quarter. Recent reports suggest the replenishment of depleted stockpiles will lift production in coming months. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge was 56.5 in February, the seventh consecutive month of growth. Texas Instruments , the second-largest U.S. chipmaker, said quarterly profit and sales will be at the high end of its forecasts, fueled by increasing demand for computers, high- definition TVs and cars. The Dallas-based company also projects an increase in stockpiles compared with the prior quarter. Orders ‘Strong’ “We do expect to be able to build some inventory this quarter,” Vice President Ron Slaymaker said on a conference call with analysts on March 8. “Both revenue as well as orders quarter to-date have remained strong.” Today’s figures showed wholesalers’ stockpiles of durable goods, or those meant to last several years, fell 0.5 percent in January after declining 1.1 percent in the prior month. Distributors of machinery and professional equipment showed the biggest declines in inventories. Vehicle inventories dropped 0.2 percent, after decreasing 2.5 percent the prior month, while auto sales rose 2.6 percent in January, the most since October, today’s report showed. Inventories of nondurable goods showed a 0.3 percent gain, reflecting higher-priced petroleum. Sales of non-durable goods rose 2 percent, after a 0.2 percent decrease a month earlier. The value of petroleum sales rose 2 percent. To contact the reporters on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington schandra1@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Machine orders in Japan dropped in January

March 10, 2010

Machine orders in Japan dropped in January

Read the full article →

Japan- Core machinery orders fall 3.7% in January

March 10, 2010

Japan- Core machinery orders fall 3.7% in January

Read the full article →

UK trade gap to narrow in January

March 9, 2010

UK trade gap to narrow in January

Read the full article →

German factory orders jump 19.6% in January

March 7, 2010

German factory orders jump 19.6% in January

Read the full article →

Consumer Credit in U.S. Unexpectedly Increases for First Time in a Year

March 5, 2010

By Vincent Del Giudice March 5 (Bloomberg) — Borrowing by U.S. consumers unexpectedly rose in January for the first time in a year, led by auto and student loans, a sign Americans are gaining confidence in the economy. Consumer credit increased $5 billion, or 2.4 percent at an annual rate, the Federal Reserve said today in Washington. Borrowing dropped $4.6 billion in December, more than first estimated. The figures track credit card debt and non-revolving loans, including those for automobile purchases. Stocks rose after the report indicated that some banks may be more willing to lend as the economy recovers from the worst recession since World War II. Growth may get a bigger lift from consumer purchases that account for about 70 percent of the economy when companies start to hire. “Spending is holding up,” said David Wyss , chief economist at Standard & Poor’s in New York. “People are feeling a little bit more comfortable. They’re sticking their heads out of the shell a little more.” The economy lost 36,000 jobs in February, less than anticipated, after a decline of 26,000 a month earlier even as snowstorms in parts of the nation forced some employers to temporarily close, Labor Department figures showed earlier today. The unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent. Stocks gained for a sixth day and Treasury securities fell after a smaller-than-estimated loss of jobs in February. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.4 percent to 1,138.70 at 4:46 p.m. in New York. The 10-year Treasury note declined, pushing up the yield eight basis points to 3.68 percent. Decline Was Forecast Economists had forecast consumer credit would drop by $4.5 billion in January after a previously reported $1.7 billion decrease in December, according to the median of 33 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from a decrease of $12.3 billion to an increase of $2.4 billion. The January gain in credit was the biggest since July 2008, according to the Fed’s data. Non-revolving debt , including automobile and mobile-home loans, rose by $6.6 billion after a $4.9 billion gain. The Fed’s report doesn’t cover borrowing secured by real estate. Auto sales in the U.S. cooled in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 10.8 million, according to industry statistics. The pace slowed in February to 10.36 million. Non-Revolving Loans Non-revolving credit, on an unadjusted basis, rose $10.3 billion at commercial banks. Federal government non-revolving loans, such as those for student loans, also increased an unadjusted $10.3 billion. The increase in student loans suggests people “are going back to school to ride it out because of the difficult labor market,” said Michael Feroli , chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. Revolving debt , such as credit cards, fell by $1.7 billion in January, according to the Fed’s statistics. Revolving credit has fallen 16 straight months, the longest series of declines since the Fed began keeping those records in 1968. The January drop was the smallest since July. Consumer spending during the final three months of last year rose at a 1.7 percent annual rate following an increase of 2.8 percent in the third quarter, Commerce Department figures showed on Feb. 26. Spending contributed to economic growth of 5.9 percent at annual rate, the best performance in more than six years. A gain in February sales at retailers open at least a year indicates sustained spending by consumers. Comparable-store sales climbed 4.1 percent, according to Retail Metrics Inc. It was the sixth straight gain and the biggest in 27 months. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. said yesterday that sales rose 5 percent, while Macy’s Inc., the second-biggest U.S. department- store company, reported a 3.7 percent gain. “The consumer is starting to come out of hibernation and feel better about their situation,” Ken Perkins, president of Swampscott, Massachusetts-based Retail Metrics, said yesterday in an interview. More than three-fourths of retailers in the Retail Metrics survey beat estimates, he said. To contact the reporter on this story: Vincent Del Giudice in Washington vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

U.S. Consumer Credit Increases for First Time in a Year in Confidence Sign

March 5, 2010

By Vincent Del Giudice March 5 (Bloomberg) — Borrowing by U.S. consumers unexpectedly rose in January for the first time in a year, led by auto and student loans, a sign Americans are gaining confidence in the economy. Consumer credit increased $5 billion, or 2.4 percent at an annual rate, the Federal Reserve said today in Washington. Borrowing dropped $4.6 billion in December, more than first estimated. The figures track credit card debt and non-revolving loans, including those for automobile purchases. Stocks rose after the report indicated that some banks may be more willing to lend as the economy recovers from the worst recession since World War II. Growth may get a bigger lift from consumer purchases that account for about 70 percent of the economy when companies start to hire. “Spending is holding up,” said David Wyss , chief economist at Standard & Poor’s in New York. “People are feeling a little bit more comfortable. They’re sticking their heads out of the shell a little more.” The economy lost 36,000 jobs in February, less than anticipated, after a decline of 26,000 a month earlier even as snowstorms in parts of the nation forced some employers to temporarily close, Labor Department figures showed earlier today. The unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent. Stocks gained for a sixth day and Treasury securities fell after a smaller-than-estimated loss of jobs in February. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.4 percent to 1,138.70 at 4:46 p.m. in New York. The 10-year Treasury note declined, pushing up the yield eight basis points to 3.68 percent. Decline Was Forecast Economists had forecast consumer credit would drop by $4.5 billion in January after a previously reported $1.7 billion decrease in December, according to the median of 33 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from a decrease of $12.3 billion to an increase of $2.4 billion. The January gain in credit was the biggest since July 2008, according to the Fed’s data. Non-revolving debt , including automobile and mobile-home loans, rose by $6.6 billion after a $4.9 billion gain. The Fed’s report doesn’t cover borrowing secured by real estate. Auto sales in the U.S. cooled in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 10.8 million, according to industry statistics. The pace slowed in February to 10.36 million. Non-Revolving Loans Non-revolving credit, on an unadjusted basis, rose $10.3 billion at commercial banks. Federal government non-revolving loans, such as those for student loans, also increased an unadjusted $10.3 billion. The increase in student loans suggests people “are going back to school to ride it out because of the difficult labor market,” said Michael Feroli , chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. Revolving debt , such as credit cards, fell by $1.7 billion in January, according to the Fed’s statistics. Revolving credit has fallen 16 straight months, the longest series of declines since the Fed began keeping those records in 1968. The January drop was the smallest since July. Consumer spending during the final three months of last year rose at a 1.7 percent annual rate following an increase of 2.8 percent in the third quarter, Commerce Department figures showed on Feb. 26. Spending contributed to economic growth of 5.9 percent at annual rate, the best performance in more than six years. A gain in February sales at retailers open at least a year indicates sustained spending by consumers. Comparable-store sales climbed 4.1 percent, according to Retail Metrics Inc. It was the sixth straight gain and the biggest in 27 months. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. said yesterday that sales rose 5 percent, while Macy’s Inc., the second-biggest U.S. department- store company, reported a 3.7 percent gain. “The consumer is starting to come out of hibernation and feel better about their situation,” Ken Perkins, president of Swampscott, Massachusetts-based Retail Metrics, said yesterday in an interview. More than three-fourths of retailers in the Retail Metrics survey beat estimates, he said. To contact the reporter on this story: Vincent Del Giudice in Washington vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Robert Reich: The Jobless Rate Makes Health Care Reform Both Harder and More Important

March 5, 2010

The loss of 36,000 jobs in February is better than expected but it’s still miserable. 26,000 were lost in January, according to the government’s revised figures. And the “underemployment” rate — including jobless workers who have given up looking for work and part-time workers who want full time jobs — rose from 16.5% in January to 16.8% in February, offsetting some of January’s gains. And don’t blame it mostly on the weather. Although the surveys on which the report is based were done in mid-February during winter snowstorms in the east, the major impact of bad weather was on hours worked, not the numbers of jobs. If you had a job in February but were snowed in, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported you as having a job. This complicates the president’s final push for health care reform. With employers still shedding jobs and consumer confidence down, Americans are worried first and foremost about paying their bills. Because most people aren’t aware of how much of their paychecks are being eaten up by rising health care costs, but can easily be persuaded they’ll be paying more to cover those who don’t have health insurance under any new health plan, the continuing bad news on the jobs front makes it harder for the president to make his health-care sale. The bad news on jobs also allows economic illiterates (and scoundrels who know better) to continue to claim the stimulus is failing and what’s needed is less government rather than more, including not only a smaller “jobs bill” but less or no health care reform. In politics as in economics and love, timing is everything. Obama can’t wait much longer if he wants to convince wavering and worried conservative Democrats to join him in a last ditch 51-vote reconciliation measure to get health care through the Senate. We’re already in the gravitational pull of November’s mid-term elections. But the economy is taking a longer time to turn around than anyone expected, and telling Americans the jobs numbers are getting worse more slowly isn’t exactly reassuring. One small political consolation is the worst job numbers continue to be on the coasts and the old rust belt where Democrats are relatively safer, and the best numbers in the midwest and mountain states and south where Democrats are weakest. So at least Blue Dog Democrats who are under the most pressure from their conservative constituents on health care aren’t grappling with the biggest job losses. Another is that all across the nation, the people being hit worst by this continuing jobs recession/depression are poor and the lower-middle class who Republicans are trying to court. They’re in greatest danger of losing health care coverage if they haven’t lost it already, and in greatest need for subsidies to allow them and their families to afford it. Wavering and worried congressional Dems should be reaching out to them. Americans desperately need health care reform. They also desperately need jobs. Even if it’s difficult for many to make the connection, it’s still possible for the nation to try to do two important things at the same time. We need a big jobs bill — including especially extended unemployment insurance, aid to hard-hit states and cities — and we need health care reform. The sooner we do the former and get the economy moving into positive job numbers again, the more quickly and easily we can afford the latter. The big question is whether the president can make the case. Cross-posted from RobertReich.org

Read the full article →

Turbines Blur Good View of U.S. Business Investment, Economist Feroli Says

March 4, 2010

By Courtney Schlisserman March 4 (Bloomberg) — Seasonal quirks in demand for turbines means the outlook for U.S. business investment isn’t as “dire” as implied by today’s factory orders report, according to economist Michael Feroli . Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 4.1 percent in January and shipments, a measure used in calculating gross domestic product, declined 1.7 percent, a report today from the Commerce Department showed. The biggest component in both cases was turbines, which are expensive machines used to generate power. “The culprit here is turbines,” Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, said in an interview. “You smooth it out and things weren’t as robust as they seemed in December, but maybe not as dire as they seemed in January.” Gains in manufacturing helped pull the economy out of the worst recession in seven decades last year, and continued strength is now needed to spur other parts of the economy. A report yesterday showed service industries expanded last month at the fastest pace in more than two years. The sheer size of turbine and generator orders may explain why they are the “most volatile” part of the factory orders report and therefore difficult to adjust for seasonal variations, said Chris Savage, an economist at the Census Bureau who works on the factory orders release. Each turbine can cost millions of dollars and companies may try to close deals at the end of the year, resulting in large increases in the measure in December followed declines in January, Savage said. The government’s figures show turbine and generator bookings have fallen in eight of the past 10 Januaries and shipments declined in every one of those years. Sustained Gains Excluding turbines and aircraft, another volatile component, shipments of capital goods climbed in the five months to January, when they increased 0.9 percent, Feroli said. The declines in orders and shipments of equipment reported today “don’t change our opinion that capital spending is recovering,” said Aaron Smith , an economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “There’s always a tendency for the turbines and generator category to be weak in the first month of the quarter and stronger in the last month and that trend is particularly strong for the first part of the year.” The economy grew at a 5.9 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter of last year, the fastest in six years. Spending on equipment and software rose at an 18 percent annual pace during the period, the strongest rate of growth since 2000, according to Commerce Department data. Sentiment Measures Sentiment measures, which may not be as influenced as orders by the value of goods, are showing manufacturing has continued to prosper this year. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge showed expansion for a seventh straight month in February. Qualcomm Inc. , the world’s biggest maker of mobile-phone chips, said March 2 it expects second-quarter sales and profit to be at the higher end of its forecast range and cited improving handset shipments. The company’s customers are telling it that phone shipments are showing “respectable year-over-year improvements,” Chief Financial Officer Bill Keitel said at Qualcomm’s annual shareholder meeting. To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington at cschlisserma@bloomberg.net .

Read the full article →

Pending U.S. Home Sales Decline in Sign Tax Credit Failing to Lure Buyers

March 4, 2010

By Courtney Schlisserman March 4 (Bloomberg) — The number of contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly declined in January, showing the extension of a tax credit is sparking little interest. The index of purchase agreements, or pending home sales, fell 7.6 percent after a revised 0.8 percent increase in December, the National Association of Realtors announced in Washington. In November, the measure slumped a record 13.7 percent. Snowstorms in February probably limited contract signings and sales that month as well, the group said. The renewal of a government incentive to first-time buyers, originally due to expire at the end of November, and its expansion to include current owners has yet to lure buyers back into the market after helping boost sales last year. A lack of jobs and mounting foreclosures have depressed confidence, indicating housing will take time to rebound. The original deadline for the credit “clearly pulled demand forward and there has been a substantial payback,” said Mark Vitner , a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “The housing recovery is going to be very, very slow.” Stocks fell after the report and separate figures that showed a pause in demand for business equipment. Factory orders rose 1.7 percent in January, boosted by a surge in commercial aircraft bookings, according to Commerce Department data that also showed less demand for computers and machinery. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 0.1 percent to 1,117.72 at 10:38 a.m. in New York. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note decreased two basis points to 3.6 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. Economists’ Forecasts Economists forecast the gauge would increase 1 percent in January after a previously reported 1 percent gain in December, according to the median of 40 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a drop of 4.2 percent to an increase of 4 percent. “The abnormally severe and prolonged winter weather, which affected large regions of the U.S., hampered shopping activity in February,” Lawrence Yun , the group’s chief economist, said in a statement. “We will see weak near-term sales followed by a likely surge of existing-home sales in April, May and June.” Other reports earlier today showed initial jobless claims fell from a three-month high, while productivity increased in the fourth quarter. First-time claims for unemployment insurance dropped 29,000 last week to 469,000, the Labor Department said. Productivity Surge Productivity , a measure of employee output per hour, rose at a 6.9 percent annual rate in the final three months of last year, the Labor Department also said. Labor costs dropped 5.9 percent, more than anticipated. The Realtors’ report showed declines in pending sales in all four regions, led by a 13 percent slump in the West. Contract signings fell 8.9 percent in the Midwest, 8.7 percent in the Northeast and 2.1 percent in the South. Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator because they track contract signings. The Realtors’ existing- home sales report tallies closings, which typically occur a month or two later. The pending sales data go back to January 2001, and the group began publishing the index in March 2005. Reports last week showed the housing market may be faltering. Sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly dropped 7.2 percent in January after a record decline a month earlier, according to Realtors group’s report Feb. 26. New-home sales slumped to an all-time low, the Commerce Department said Feb. 24. Credit Extension President Barack Obama and Congress extended the first-time buyer credit in early November to cover deals signed by April 30 and closed by June 30, and expanded it to include some current homeowners. Even so, some economists said the original measure pulled sales forward, restraining demand in subsequent months. Among other concerns for the housing outlook, the Federal Reserve said it plans to end later this month a program to purchase mortgage-backed securities, which helped contain borrowing costs. The plan helped push the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage down to 4.71 percent in early December, the lowest level since Freddie Mac started keeping weekly records in 1972. The rate has hovered around 5 percent since then. Foreclosures pose another threat. Foreclosure filings rose 15 percent in January compared with a year earlier and exceeded 300,000 for the 11th straight month, RealtyTrac Inc. said Feb. 11. 1980s and 1990s The housing market will “follow a similar pattern” to recovery as it did in the late 1980s and early 1990s, which both took “several years,” Toll Brothers Inc. Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll said in a statement Feb. 24. The company, the largest U.S. luxury-home builder, said its orders almost doubled in the first quarter compared with a year earlier. It projected it will sell between 2,100 and 2,750 homes in fiscal 2010 at an average price of $540,000 to $560,000 each. To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington at cschlisserma@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Kuwait real estate drops 34% in January

March 3, 2010

03 Mar 2010 Figures released by National Bank Kuwait (NBK) indicate a 34 per cent drop in registered real estate contracts issued during January compared to December. The bank indicated the fall wa…

Read the full article →

European Inflation Slows as Weakening Recovery, Job Cuts Curtail Spending

March 2, 2010

By Simone Meier March 2 (Bloomberg) — European inflation slowed in February after rising unemployment and a weakening recovery prompted households to scale back spending. Consumer prices in the 16-nation euro region rose an estimated 0.9 percent from a year earlier after increasing 1 percent in January, the European Union statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Producer prices fell 1 percent in January from a year earlier, the smallest decline in a year, the statistics office said in a separate report. European companies may find it difficult to pass on higher costs after unemployment held at an 11-year high in January and the economic recovery slowed to a near-halt in the fourth quarter. The European Commission said last week that the euro region may fail to gather strength for most of 2010 and the European Central Bank forecasts “subdued” price pressures . “We see very few inflation threats ahead,” said Juergen Michels , chief euro-area economist at Citigroup Inc. in London. “The euro region maintains its bumpy recovery. I don’t expect the ECB to start raising borrowing costs before early 2011.” The euro was little changed against the dollar after the data, trading at $1.3492 at 10:01 a.m. in London, down 0.5 percent on the day. The yield on the German 10-year benchmark bond rose 0.1 basis point to 3.11 percent. Today’s inflation report was in line with economists’ forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Producer prices rose 0.7 percent from December, when they increased 0.1 percent. Costs of energy in the manufacturing sector fell 1.7 percent in the year. Current Quarter Inflation will probably average 0.8 percent in the current quarter before accelerating to 1.3 percent in the three months through June, the commission forecast on Feb. 25. Gross domestic product may rise just 0.2 percent in both quarters, it said. Europe’s economy may struggle to gain momentum after expanding just 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter as a doubling in oil prices over the past year leaves companies and consumers with less money to spend. Euro-area unemployment remained at 9.9 percent in January, the highest since November 1998. European economic confidence unexpectedly declined in February. Volkswagen AG, Europe’s largest carmaker, said on Feb. 26 that profit dropped 80 percent last year as the global recession eroded deliveries of the Audi luxury brand. Club Mediterranee SA, Europe’s largest resort company, said last month that first- quarter sales declined as travelers cut their holiday budgets. The ECB on March 4 will probably keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 1 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey. The Frankfurt-based central bank also will publish updated inflation and growth forecasts. The statistics office will release a breakdown of February inflation on March 16. To contact the reporter on this story: Simone Meier in Dublin at smeier@bloombert.net

Read the full article →

US consumer spending up 0.5% in January

March 2, 2010

US consumer spending up 0.5% in January

Read the full article →

Japan’s unemployment falls to 4.9% in January

March 2, 2010

Japan’s unemployment falls to 4.9% in January

Read the full article →

Indian exports jump 11.5% in January

March 2, 2010

Indian exports jump 11.5% in January

Read the full article →

Only the Savviest Forecasters Win My DEFT Contest: John Dorfman

March 1, 2010

Commentary by John Dorfman March 1 (Bloomberg) — Very few people foresaw the Great Recession of 2007-2009. That’s really no surprise. Most economic forecasters fall on their faces at turning points. For example, in January 2008 only five of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted a recession. The consensus was that the chance of a recession developing within 12 months was 40 percent. In fact, it was already under way. Can you do any better than the experts? One way to find out is to enter my annual Derby of Economic Forecasting Talent (DEFT), which I am now reviving after a few years of dormancy. Some of the previous contests were won by financial professionals, including a Fed official in Richmond, Virginia, and money managers in Chicago and New Jersey. Other winners were amateurs. For example, the victor one year was a recent graduate of the University of New Mexico who hadn’t yet found her first job. (At least she was an economics student, not an English major.) So far, no economist has taken first place, though quite a few have entered. The number of entrants per year has ranged from about 40 to more than 100, including people in all walks of life from about a dozen countries. Pros and Amateurs Why can amateurs fare as well as they have in the contest? Experts in almost all fields make mistakes frequently. This is not because they are inept poseurs, but simply because forecasting complex systems is incredibly difficult. Researchers have studied cardiologists analyzing electrocardiograms, racetrack bettors handicapping thoroughbreds, and meteorologists forecasting storms. Their studies show it is often difficult even for knowledgeable people to outperform a simple computer model. The DEFT contest itself provides strong evidence of the challenges of forecasting. Contestants have often missed the boat whenever a key aspect of the economy veers from trend. For example, in 2003-2004 every single contestant underestimated the rise in the price of oil. Here are the six questions you must answer to enter the DEFT contest for 2010-2011. Question 1: Economic Growth. U.S. gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2009 was growing at an annualized rate of 5.7 percent. Growth was 2.2 percent in the third quarter, and had been negative in five of the six previous quarters. What will be the pace of economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2010? Question 2: Inflation. The U.S. consumer price index rose 2.6 percent in the year ended January 31, 2010. Twelve months before that it was flat. What will be the comparable figure as of January 31, 2011? Question 3: Interest rates. The interest rate on 10-year bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury stood at 3.58 percent at the end of January, up from 2.84 percent a year earlier. What rate of interest will 10-year Treasury bonds pay as of January 31, 2011? Question 4: Oil prices. A barrel of crude oil (West Texas intermediate, spot price) traded for $72.89 at the end of January, up from $41.68 a year earlier. What will be the price of a barrel of oil on January 31, 2011? Question 5: Retail sales. U.S. retail stores rang up $356 billion in sales in January, compared with $340 billion a year previously and $376 billion two years earlier. Rounded to the nearest billion, what will be the monthly total for retail sales in January 2011? Question 6: Unemployment. The U.S. unemployment number is crucial in affecting public mood, consumer confidence, political fortunes and quality of life for many Americans. As of January 31, the official unemployment rate was 9.7 percent. The comparable figures were 7.7 percent in January 2009 and 5 percent in January 2008. What will be the unemployment rate as of January 31, 2011? To enter, e-mail me at dorfman1@bloomberg.net , providing your answers to the six questions above, plus a phone number and e-mail address to allow me to contact you if you win. If you do not receive an acknowledgement of your e-mail entry within 72 hours, please re-send it. All entries must be time-stamped by midnight on March 15, 2010. The contestant with the most accurate answer to each question receives three points. Second place gets two points, third place one point. While the theoretical maximum is 18 points, a score of four to six points is often enough to win. The winner will receive a trophy from me, plus bragging rights at home and at work. Good luck. ( John Dorfman , chairman of Thunderstorm Capital in Boston, is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own. His firm or clients may own or trade securities discussed in this column.) Click on “Send Comment” in the sidebar display to send a letter to the editor. To contact the writer of this column: John Dorfman at jdorfman@thunderstormcapital.com

Read the full article →

U.S. Manufacturing Grows for Seventh Month in Sign of Factory-Led Recovery

March 1, 2010

By Bob Willis March 1 (Bloomberg) — Manufacturing expanded in February for a seventh consecutive month, indicating factories are leading the U.S. economic recovery. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index fell to 56.5, lower than anticipated, from January’s 58.4, which was the highest since August 2004, figures from the Tempe, Arizona-based group showed. Readings greater than 50 signal expansion. Measures of new orders and production declined, while a gauge of employment grew at the fastest pace in five years. Factories boosted production to replenish depleted inventories and invested in new equipment last year as global demand picked up following the worst recession in seven decades. The manufacturing revival may help lead to the job growth needed to propel consumer spending and the economy. “Manufacturing is the strongest sector of the economy,” Michael Moran , chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York, said before the report. “It’s being influenced a lot by the inventory adjustment. We need to see other areas strengthen” for the recovery to become self-sustaining, he said. The factory index compared with a median forecast of 57.9, according to 66 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 55 to 60.7. Manufacturing accounts for about 12 percent of the economy. Figures from the Commerce Department earlier today showed personal spending rose 0.5 percent in January after a 0.3 percent gain the prior month. Incomes increased 0.1 percent. The ISM’s production index fell to 58.4 from 66.2 and the new orders index decreased to 59.5 from 65.9. The employment index increased to 56.1, the highest since January 2005, from 53.3. Export Orders A gauge of export orders decreased to 56.5 from 58.5. China’s manufacturing grew at a slower pace in February, according to HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics. Their factory index fell to 55.8 from a January reading of 57.4. European manufacturing expanded for a fifth month in February. A factory index for the 16-nation euro region increased to 54.2, the highest since August 2007, from 52.4 in January, London-based Markit Economics said. The supplier delivery gauge, a measure of the time it takes to receive goods, rose to 61.1 from 60.1 the prior month. The measure of orders waiting to be filled increased to 61 from 56. The inventory index rose to 47.3 from 46.5. The index of prices paid fell to 67 from 70. Government stimulus efforts last year helped spark rebounds in the housing and automobile industries, two of the most depressed areas during the recession. After car sales surged mid-year on sales incentives, automakers are now boosting output to rebuild inventories. Automakers and Inventory Among carmakers rebuilding inventory, Chrysler Group LLC, the third largest U.S. automaker, produced 88,623 vehicles in January, compared with 39,315 a year earlier, according to company data. Factory orders have been increasing after companies pared inventories last year by a record $120 billion. Efforts to rebuild depleted stockpiles contributed 3.88 percentage points to a fourth-quarter growth rate of 5.9 percent that was the strongest in more than six years, the Commerce Department said last week. U.S. companies are also benefiting from the rebound in the global economy. General Electric Co ., the world’s biggest maker of jet engines and locomotives, is expanding operations in China. Investment in equipment and software increased at an 18 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, the most since 2000, the Commerce Department said last week. Applied Materials Santa Clara, California-based Applied Materials Inc ., the world’s largest producer of chipmaking equipment, forecast sales and profit that topped analysts’ estimates as semiconductor companies begin to increase orders. “What we have to see in the second half of the year is an expansion of capacity additions to a broader group of customers,” Chief Financial Officer George Davis said in an interview Feb. 17. “We’ve built some conservatism for our outlook. It won’t take much expansion for us to meet that outlook.” The economy still requires job growth to spur consumer spending, which is forecast to average 2 percent this year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg last month. Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. Employers in February probably reduced payrolls by 50,000 workers after 20,000 job cuts the prior month, economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the government’s monthly payroll report will show March 5. Unemployment probably rose to 9.8 percent from 9.7 percent in January, according to the survey. Manufacturing employment increased 11,000 in January, the Labor Department said last month. To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Italy’s January jobless rate hits 8.6%

March 1, 2010

Italy’s January jobless rate hits 8.6%

Read the full article →

Italy’s January jobless rate hits 8.6%

March 1, 2010

Italy’s January jobless rate hits 8.6%

Read the full article →

Pakistan’s textile exports hit $930m in January

February 28, 2010

Pakistan’s textile exports hit $930m in January

Read the full article →

US existing home sales decline in January

February 27, 2010

US existing home sales decline in January

Read the full article →

Wen Says He’s `Confident’ Government Can Keep China Home Prices Affordable

February 27, 2010

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) — China Premier Wen Jiabao said he’s “confident” he can manage the nation’s soaring property market and keep home prices at a reasonable level during his tenure. The government aims to boost the supply of affordable housing and will use “economic and legal measures” to curb home purchases for speculative purposes, Wen said during a Webcast today from Beijing. China’s policy makers aim to avert asset bubbles and restrain inflation after banks extended 19 percent of this year’s 7.5 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) lending targets in January and property prices climbed the most in 21 months. China’s growth accelerated to 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter, the fastest pace since 2007. The central bank earlier this month ordered lenders to set aside more deposits as reserves for the second time in a month to cool the world’s fastest-growing economy. Wen said today that 2010 will be the most “complicated” year for the Chinese economy as the government needs to strike a balance among maintaining “stable and relatively fast” growth, adjust the nation’s growth model and manage inflation expectations. He reiterated that China will continue a “moderately loose” monetary policy this year. Consumer prices rose 1.5 percent from a year earlier in January, down from 1.9 percent in December, on smaller gains in food prices. Inflation will accelerate to 3.6 percent by the end of June, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Property prices across 70 cities surged 9.5 percent in January from a year earlier, exports climbed and producer-price inflation accelerated. Trade Surplus Last year’s record lending of 9.59 trillion yuan and a 4 trillion yuan stimulus package have helped the nation to lead the recovery from the first global recession since World War II. The world may again count on China as the biggest engine of growth. The World Bank last month raised its forecast for the global expansion in 2010 to 2.7 percent from 2 percent in June, and predicted 9 percent growth in China, which is poised to overtake Japan as No. 2 in GDP rankings this year. Wen said the U.S. should ease restrictions on exports of technology products as a way to narrow China’s trade surplus. China and U.S. should settle trade friction through negotiations rather than sanctions, Wen said today, adding he hopes 2010 won’t be an “unpeaceful” year for the two nations. U.S. Senator Charles Schumer and 14 colleagues said this week Chinese exporters should be hit with stiffer U.S. tariffs to compensate for the unfair advantage they get from an undervalued yuan. China’s central bank buys dollars to keep the yuan from strengthening, purchases that helped drive China’s foreign- exchange reserves 23 percent higher to a record $2.4 trillion last year. Japan’s reserves are the world’s second largest at $1 trillion. — Luo Jun . Editors: Virginia Van Natta , Jim McDonald To contact Bloomberg News staff of this story: Luo Jun in Shanghai at +8621-6104-7021 or jluo6@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mike Millard at +65-6212-1519 or mmillard@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Homes sales drop shakes market

February 26, 2010

for the year was $137,500. “We shouldn’t freak out about this,” said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst with Weiss Research in Jupiter. “We’re pretty close to a price bottom – if we’re not there already.” Real estate experts attributed January’s price

Read the full article →

Video: Lebas Says Keep a `Close Eye’ on Feb. Jobless Data: Video

February 26, 2010

Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) — Guy Lebas, fixed-income strategist and economist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, talks with Bloomberg’s Betty Liu about today’s announcement by the Commerce Department that fourth-quarter gross domestic product expanded at a 5.9 percent annual rate. Lebas also discusses the impact of weather on consumer sentiment, January’s existing home sales and jobless data. (Source: Bloomberg)

Read the full article →

U.S. Durables Orders Fall, Jobless Claims Rise in Sign Recovery `Nascent’

February 25, 2010

By Bob Willis and Timothy R. Homan Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) — Companies scaled back orders for equipment in January and filings for jobless benefits rose, the latest figures in a series of reports this week that show the U.S. economy is recovering in fits and starts. Orders for durable goods excluding transportation unexpectedly fell 0.6 percent, the most since August, while a measure of bookings for business equipment showed its biggest decrease in nine months, the Commerce Department in Washington said. The Labor Department said new claims for unemployment insurance rose to a three-month high. Factories may be taking a pause to gauge demand after boosting production in the second half of 2009 to replenish inventories. Reports earlier this week showed weaker consumer sentiment and home sales, underscoring Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke ’s view that the recovery is “nascent” and still requires interest rates near zero. “There’s no reason to think this is the start of a double- dip — some back and fill is standard operating procedure in recoveries,” Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York, said in an e-mail to clients. “Rising jobless claims, weaker orders and falling consumer confidence suggest the economy is retrenching in the first half of the first quarter.” Stocks fell and Treasury securities rose after the reports and as Moody’s Investors Service said it may downgrade Greek debt. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 1.5 percent to 1,089.09 at 11:26 a.m. in New York. The 10-year Treasury note rose, pushing down the yield five basis points to 3.64 percent. Economists’ Forecasts Economists forecast orders for durable goods excluding transportation equipment, which tends to be volatile month to month, would rise 1 percent, according to the median of 42 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. In December, they increased 2 percent. Bookings for all goods meant to last several years rose 3 percent, more than anticipated and reflecting a jump in commercial aircraft. They were forecast to rise 1.5 percent, according to the survey. The number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits rose 22,000 in the week ended Feb. 20 to 496,000, Labor Department figures in Washington showed. Economists forecast claims would fall to 460,000, according the median in a Bloomberg survey. Winter storms in parts of the U.S. in recent weeks have made claims volatile. A Labor Department spokesman said today that part of the reason for the increase in claims was a backlog of applications in mid-Atlantic states and New England, where blizzards hit earlier this month. The Commerce Department’s report showed orders for non- defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business spending, fell 2.9 percent last month, the biggest drop since April 2009. Shipments of such goods, which are used in calculating gross domestic product, declined 1.5 percent in January after a 2.4 percent gain in December. Equipment and Software Spending on equipment and software rose at a 13.3 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, the fastest since 2006, the Commerce Department said in a report on gross domestic product. The gain, along with efforts to stabilize inventories, helped the economy grow at a 5.7 percent pace in the fourth quarter. Orders for machinery slumped 9.7 percent in January, the most in a year, while demand increased for primary metals, communications equipment and computers, today’s report showed. The larger-than-expected increase in total durable goods orders reflected a 126 percent jump in demand for commercial aircraft. Boeing Co . said it received orders for 59 aircraft two months ago, up from nine in November and an increase that wasn’t captured in the Commerce Department’s durables data for December. The world’s second-biggest airplane maker said it received 10 orders in January. Orders for motor vehicles and parts dropped 2.2 percent in January after a 5.5 percent gain. Inventories of durable goods were unchanged in January after a 0.2 percent decrease, today’s report showed. More Exports Manufacturers have been benefiting from rising exports as global demand recovers after the worst slump since World War II. A 10 percent drop in the value of the dollar from a four-year high on March 3, 2009 is making American goods more competitive. Exports have risen for eight consecutive months since reaching a three-year low in April. “Private final demand does seem to be growing at a moderate pace,” Bernanke told lawmakers yesterday. The Fed chairman, who continues his semiannual testimony today, said slack labor markets and low inflation would allow the Fed to keep the benchmark lending rate low “for an extended period.” Some manufacturers are beginning to bring back workers or hire. Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest maker of bulldozers and excavators, is recalling about 100 laid-off technicians at an Indiana plant because of increased demand and may be hiring more, Bridget Young , a Caterpillar spokeswoman, said Feb. 18. “Caterpillar may be recalling or hiring employees in business units at various facilities this year based on demand fluctuation,” Young said. An absence of job growth is limiting optimism even as the economy expands. The Conference Board reported Feb. 23 that consumer confidence fell to a 10-month low in February, while a measure of current conditions slumped to the lowest level in 27 years. To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net ; Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

U.S. Durable-Goods Orders Rise More Than Estimated on Airplane Purchases

February 25, 2010

By Bob Willis Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) — Orders for U.S. durable goods rose more than forecast in January, boosted by a surge in bookings for commercial aircraft that masked a decline in demand for some business equipment. Bookings for goods meant to last several years jumped 3 percent last month after a revised 1.9 percent increase, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Durable goods orders excluding transportation equipment unexpectedly fell 0.6 percent, the biggest drop since August. Factories may be taking a pause to gauge demand after boosting production in the second half of 2009 as companies replenished inventories. Restrained consumer spending and home sales underscore Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s comments yesterday that the recovery is “nascent” and still requires interest rates near zero. “Capital spending is probably still increasing but not at the robust pace we saw in the fourth quarter,” Michael Feroli , an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, said before the report. “It looks like in the first half the recovery is slowing from the pace we saw in the fourth quarter.” Economists forecast orders for all durable goods would rise 1.5 percent, according to the median forecast of 72 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from a decline of 0.5 percent to a gain of 5 percent. Excluding demand for transportation equipment, which includes commercial aircraft and tends to be volatile month to month, orders were forecast to increase 1 percent. In the prior two months, those orders rose 2 percent. Boeing Orders The larger-than-expected increase in total durable goods orders reflected a 126 percent jump in demand for commercial aircraft. Boeing Co . said it received orders for 59 aircraft two months ago, up from nine in November and an increase that wasn’t captured in the Commerce Department’s durables data for December. The world’s second-biggest airplane maker said it received 10 orders in January. Orders for motor vehicles and parts dropped 2.2 percent in January after a 5.5 percent gain. Shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which are used in calculating gross domestic product, declined 1.5 percent in January after a 2.4 percent gain in December. Bookings for such goods, a proxy for future business spending, fell 2.9 percent last month. Orders for machinery slumped 9.7 percent in January, while demand increased for primary metals, communications equipment and computers. Fourth-Quarter Investment Purchases of equipment and software added 0.8 percentage point to fourth-quarter economic growth, according to Commerce Department figures released Jan. 29. Today’s figures suggest the pace of such investment may not be sustained in the current quarter. Spending on equipment and software rose at a 13.3 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, the fastest since 2006, the Commerce Department said in the report on gross domestic product. Efforts to stabilize inventories accounted for 3.4 percentage points of the fourth quarter’s 5.7 percent pace of economic growth. Inventories of durable goods were unchanged in January after a 0.2 percent decrease, today’s report showed. Manufacturing, which accounts for 12 percent of the economy, expanded in January at the fastest pace since August 2004, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index released Feb. 1. Global Demand Sales at manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers increased in the seven months through December, the Commerce Department reported Feb. 12. The rise left businesses with 1.26 months’ supply of goods on hand, the fewest since June 2008. Manufacturers are also benefiting from rising exports as global demand recovers after the worst slump since World War II. A 10 percent drop in the value of the dollar from a four-year high on March 3, 2009 is making American goods more competitive. Exports have risen for eight consecutive months since reaching a three-year low in April. “Private final demand does seem to be growing at a moderate pace,” Bernanke told lawmakers yesterday. The Fed chairman, who continues his semiannual testimony today, said slack labor markets and low inflation would allow the Fed to keep the benchmark lending rate low “for an extended period.” Some manufacturers are beginning to bring back workers or hire. Caterpillar , the world’s largest maker of bulldozers and excavators, is recalling about 100 laid-off technicians at an Indiana plant because of increased demand and may be hiring more, Bridget Young, a Caterpillar spokeswoman, said Feb. 18. Recalling Workers “Caterpillar may be recalling or hiring employees in business units at various facilities this year based on demand fluctuation,” Young said. Factories added 11,000 workers to payrolls in January, the first increase in three years and the most since April 2006, the Labor Department said on Feb. 5. Overall, payrolls declined by 20,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 9.7 percent. An absence of job growth is limiting optimism even as the economy expands. The Conference Board reported Feb. 23 that consumer confidence fell to a 10-month low in February, while a measure of current conditions slumped to the lowest level in 27 years. To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Sales of New Homes in U.S. Unexpectedly Declined in January to Record Low

February 24, 2010

By Bob Willis Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) — Sales of new homes in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in January to the lowest level on record, a sign that an extension of a government tax credit may not be enough to rekindle demand. Purchases declined 11 percent to an annual pace of 309,000, below the lowest forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists, from a 348,000 pace, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The median sales price dropped 2.4 percent from January 2009 and the supply of unsold homes increased. The report underscores Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s comments today that the economy is in a “nascent” recovery the still requires low interest rates. Homebuilders face competition from foreclosed properties that have driven down prices at the same time companies are reluctant to create jobs. “The foreclosure flow is robbing demand from the new-homes market and that process seems to be strengthening,” said Julia Coronado, a senior economist at BNP Paribas in New York, “The new-homes market just can’t get off the floor. If new homes suffer, construction suffers and jobs suffer.” Sales were projected to climb to a 354,000 annual pace from an originally reported 342,000 rate in December, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 72 economists. Forecasts ranged from 325,000 to 386,000. Stocks trimmed gains after the report, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rising 0.2 percent to 1,097.27 at 10:13 a.m. in New York. Three Regions Drop Three of the four U.S. regions showed declines in new-home sales last month, led by a 35 percent plunge in the Northeast. Purchases fell 12 percent in the West and 9.5 percent in the South. They rose 2.1 percent in the Midwest. The median price of a new home in the U.S. decreased to $203,500 in January, the lowest since December 2003, from $208,600 in the same month last year. The supply of homes at the current sales rate increased to 9.1 months’ worth, the highest since May 2009. Housing, the industry that spawned the sub-prime mortgage meltdown and triggered the worst recession in seven decades, appeared to be recovering in 2009 after a three-year decline. Purchases of new homes have declined from an all-time high of 1.39 million reached in July 2005. They have declined 6.1 percent from January 2009. New-home purchases, which account for about 6 percent of the market, are considered a leading indicator because they are based on contract signings. Sales of previously owned homes, which make up the remainder, are compiled from closings and reflect contracts signed weeks or months earlier. Rising Foreclosures Rising foreclosures are the main threat to a sustained housing recovery. A record 3 million U.S. homes will be repossessed by lenders this year as unemployment and depressed home values leave borrowers unable to make their house payment or sell, according to a RealtyTrac Inc. forecast last month. Last year there were 2.82 million foreclosures, the most since the Irvine, California-based company began compiling data in 2005. The lack of jobs is another hurdle. Consumer confidence in February fell to its lowest level since April 2009 and a gauge of current conditions declined to the lowest level in 27 years on concerns about the labor market and the economy, the Conference Board reported yesterday. Bernanke told Congress today that there are “tentative” signs of stabilization in the labor market, including fewer job cuts, a rise in factory employment and stronger demand for temporary help. Job Market ‘Weak’ “Notwithstanding these positive signs, the job market remains quite weak, with the unemployment rate near 10 percent and job openings scarce,” Bernanke said in testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg at the beginning of this month forecast unemployment this year will average 9.8 percent, just a percentage point below the historic post-war peak of 10.8 percent reached in November 1982. The end of Fed purchases of mortgage-backed securities, aimed at keeping borrowing costs low, represents another challenge for the housing industry. The program is scheduled to expire at the end of March. ‘Years to Recover’ “The housing market took several years to recover, following the downturn of the late 1980s and early 1990s,” Robert Toll, chief executive officer of Toll Brothers Inc., said in a statement today. Toll Brothers, the largest U.S. luxury-home builder, said its first-quarter loss narrowed. The Horsham, Pennsylvania-based company’s new orders almost doubled in the three months ended Jan. 31 as the housing market showed signs of stabilizing. To contact the report on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Japan’s exports hike 40.9% in January

February 24, 2010

Japan’s exports hike 40.9% in January

Read the full article →

French consumer prices rise in January

February 23, 2010

French consumer prices rise in January

Read the full article →

Toyota reports 56% jump in January production

February 23, 2010

Toyota reports 56% jump in January production

Read the full article →

Poland’s jobless rate hikes to 12.7% in January

February 23, 2010

Poland’s jobless rate hikes to 12.7% in January

Read the full article →

China’s crude oil processing volume up 29% in January

February 23, 2010

China’s crude oil processing volume up 29% in January

Read the full article →

Durable Goods Orders Probably Rose as Manufacturing Drives U.S. Recovery

February 20, 2010

By Bob Willis Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) — Orders for durable goods probably rose in January by the most in four months and home sales showed more signs of stabilizing, indicating manufacturing is driving the U.S. recovery, economists said before reports this week. Bookings for goods meant to last several years rose 1.5 percent last month after a 1 percent gain, according to the median estimate of 48 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Combined sales of new and existing homes rose 1.1 percent to a 5.86 million annual pace, other reports may show. Factories will probably ratchet up production to replenish inventories and meet global demand for new equipment made by companies such as Caterpillar Inc . Further gains in home sales will depend on how Americans respond to tax incentives and how soon the economy starts to create jobs. “Manufacturing is coming back pretty solidly and there is some strength in capital spending,” said Mark Vitner , a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “Housing is definitely a laggard. Until we get job growth and lending eases up, we’re not going to get a whole lot of lift.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley last week indicated policy makers are more concerned about maintaining growth than they are about immediate inflation threats. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may deliver a similar message to Congress Feb. 24-25 during his semi-annual report on the economy and interest rates. Durable Goods The Commerce Department’s durable goods report is due Feb. 25 in Washington. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from a decline of 0.5 percent to a gain of 5 percent. Excluding demand for transportation equipment, which tends to be volatile month to month, orders probably increased 0.9 percent after rising 1.4 percent in December. Manufacturing, which accounts for 12 percent of the economy, expanded in January at the fastest pace since August 2004, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index released Feb. 1. Spending on equipment and software rose at a 13.3 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, the fastest since 2006, the Commerce Department said in its initial estimate of gross domestic product on Jan. 29. The economy probably grew at a 5.7 percent annual rate from October through December, according to the median survey of economists before the Commerce Department’s first revision to the figures on Feb. 26. With manufacturing and the economy expanding, the Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite for industrial machinery is up 2.2 percent so far this year, compared with a 0.5 percent decline in the broader S&P 500 Index . Recalling Workers Some manufacturers are also beginning to bring back workers or hire. Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of bulldozers and excavators, is recalling about 100 laid-off technicians at an Indiana plant because of increased demand and may be hiring more, Bridget Young, a Caterpillar spokeswoman, said Feb. 18. “Caterpillar may be recalling or hiring employees in business units at various facilities this year based on demand fluctuation,” Young said. Factories added 11,000 workers to payrolls in January, the first increase in three years and the most since April 2006, the Labor Department said on Feb. 5. Overall, payrolls declined by 20,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 9.7 percent. Housing, the industry that spawned the subprime meltdown that triggered the worst recession in seven decades, began to recover last year after a three-year decline. Sustained growth depends on how much demand the tax credit will spur and renewed job creation after 8.4 million job losses in the last two years. Existing Homes Sales of existing homes probably rose 0.9 percent in January to a 5.5 million annual rate, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the Feb. 26 report from the National Association of Realtors. Another report from the Commerce Department on Feb. 24 will show new-home sales rose 3.8 percent to a 355,000 rate last month, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed. Sales of previously owned homes have risen 21 percent from their historic lows in January 2009, while new-home purchases have risen 4 percent. Existing-home sales have been driven by record distressed sales, which pulled down prices and accounted for 36 percent of purchases last year, according to NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. Home sales fell in December following the expected expiration of an $8,000 first-time homebuyers’ tax credit in November that had driven demand in previous months. The credit, expanded to include some current homeowners, has been extended for contracts signed through April and closed by June 30. Home Prices Housing prices continue to decline, though at a diminishing pace. The S&P/Case Shiller home price index of 20 major cities will probably show home prices fell 3 percent in December from a year earlier, the smallest decline in more than two years, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed before that report on Feb. 23. Home values are 29 percent below their July 2006 peaks. An absence of job growth is limiting optimism even as the economy expands. The Conference Board may report Feb. 23 that consumer confidence this month fell to 55 from 55.9 in January, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed. Confidence averaged 105 in the 12-month period before the recession began in December 2007. The final Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index may fall to 74 in February from 74.4 at the end of January, that index may show on Feb. 26, economists forecast. To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net ;

Read the full article →

Bernanke Likely to Assure Congress Higher Interest Rates Aren’t Imminent

February 19, 2010

By Craig Torres and Jerry Hart Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will probably assure Congress that an increase in the benchmark interest rate isn’t imminent after the Fed’s decision to raise the cost of direct loans to banks. The Fed chief will deliver his semi-annual report on the economy and interest rates to House and Senate panels Feb. 24- 25. Fed officials last month forecast growth of 2.8 percent to 3.5 percent, and minutes of their January meeting showed they are seeking more evidence the recovery is sustainable. New York Fed President William Dudley indicated today that policy makers are more concerned about maintaining growth than fighting inflation, citing a smaller-than-forecast increase in the consumer-price index for January reported today by the Labor Department. Another measure of prices, which excludes energy and food, dropped for the first time since 1982. “Monetary policy is about the economy,” Dudley, a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, told reporters after a speech in San Juan, Puerto Rico. “We need to see solid growth and job creation. Today we got an inflation report that showed there’s no inflation pressure. So our focus needs to be on growth and jobs.” The Fed yesterday said its decision to increase the discount rate by a quarter-point to 0.75 percent represented a “normalization” of Fed lending rather than a change in policy. Officials also repeated that economic conditions warrant low levels in the federal funds rate “for an extended period.” That’s a phrase Bernanke is likely to repeat to lawmakers next week, said Ethan Harris , head of economics for North America at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. ‘Real Healing’ “He is going to say it over and over again,” Harris said. “Fed tightening doesn’t happen until there is real healing in the job market, and the job market hasn’t even turned positive.” U.S. stocks advanced after the consumer-price report eased concern that the Fed will need to raise its benchmark rate to fight inflation. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.2 percent to 1,108.68 at 2:15 p.m. in New York after earlier declining as much as 0.5 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased or 0.1 percent to 10,398.19. Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard yesterday said expectations for a rate increase were exaggerated. “The idea that’s in markets that there’s a high probability that we’ll raise rates later this year is overblown,” Bullard said in response to audience questions after a speech in Memphis, Tennessee. “There’s also some probability, maybe more, that this will extend into 2011.” ‘Accommodative’ Policy Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart yesterday told a Georgia business audience that policy “remains accommodative.” Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke , speaking in Norfolk, Virginia, said the steps “do not signal any change in the outlook for monetary policy.” In a press release accompanying the discount rate increase, the 56-year-old Fed chairman and his colleagues at the Board of Governors took care to say the outlook for monetary policy “remains about as it was” when the FOMC met in January. Minutes of the January meeting reflect Dudley’s comments today that the world’s largest economy, while improving, still faces “some significant downside risks.” Business contacts expressed “great reluctance to build inventories, increase payrolls, and expand capacity,” the minutes said. Officials forecast average unemployment of 9.5 percent to 9.7 percent in the final three months of the year, little improvement from the current 9.7 percent rate. To contact the reporters on this story: Craig Torres in Washington at ctorres3@bloomberg.net ; Jerry Hart in Miami at jhart@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

U.S. Consumer Prices Increase Less Than Forecast in Sign Inflation Subdued

February 19, 2010

By Timothy R. Homan Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) — The cost of living in the U.S. rose in January less than anticipated and a measure of prices excluding food and fuel fell for the first time since 1982, indicating the recovery is showing few signs of inflation. The consumer-price index increased 0.2 percent for a fifth straight month, led by higher fuel costs, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Excluding energy and food, the so-called core index unexpectedly fell 0.1 percent, reflecting a drop in new-car prices, clothing and shelter. Companies may have little success raising prices with unemployment projected to end the year at 9.5 percent. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell after the report showed restrained inflation will allow Federal Reserve policy makers to keep interest rates close to zero to help support the recovery. “The broader picture remains one of subdued inflation, and this gives the Fed ample reason to stay on the sidelines until at least very late in the year,” said Aaron Smith, a senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, who forecast no change in the core index. Economists forecast the consumer-price index would rise 0.3 percent in January from a month earlier, according to the median of 78 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from no change to a gain of 0.6 percent. The core index was forecast to rise 0.1 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey. The decline in the core was the first since December 1982. Treasuries, Stocks Treasury prices rose, pushing down the yield on the 10-year note one basis point to 3.79 percent at 8:42 a.m. in New York. Stock-index futures maintained losses, with futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in March declining 0.4 percent to 1,100.7. Energy costs jumped 2.8 percent in January, led by higher prices for fuel oil and gasoline. The cost of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange averaged $78.40 last month, up from $74.60 in December. Gasoline prices increased 4.4 percent, the most since August. The cost at the pump rose 10 cents to $2.71 a gallon on average in January, from $2.61 the previous month, according to AAA. The price has since retreated. Compared with January 2009, the CPI rose 2.6 percent after climbing 2.7 percent the previous month. The year-over-year gains in the consumer price index have been getting bigger as crude oil prices increase from an almost five-year low in December 2008. Food, Shelter Food costs, which account for about 15 percent of the CPI, increased 0.2 percent in January, reflecting higher prices for dairy products, meat and fruits and vegetables. Shelter costs that include lodging away from home and rental properties fell 0.5 percent. Owners-equivalent rent, one of the categories used to track rental prices, fell 0.1 percent last month after no change. New-car prices fell 0.5 percent in January, the most since August, and apparel costs dropped 0.1 percent. Medical-care costs rose 0.5 percent in January, the most in two years. The Fed’s long-term forecast for its preferred measure of inflation, the Commerce Department’s index tied to consumer spending and excluding food and fuel, calls for gains in a range of 1.5 percent to 2 percent. That gauge, which is typically lower than the CPI, was up 1.5 percent in the 12 months ended in December. ‘Subdued Inflation’ Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week that the central bank expects economic conditions, including “subdued inflation trends,” that may warrant an “exceptionally low” benchmark interest rate “for an extended period.” Central bank policy makers last month “agreed that underlying inflation currently was subdued and was likely to remain so for some time,” according to minutes of the Jan. 26- 27 meeting released this week. Consumers in the Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary survey, released Feb. 12, said they expect an inflation rate of 2.8 percent over the next five years. Those figures are tracked by Fed policy makers. The CPI is the broadest of the three monthly price gauges from the Labor Department because it includes goods and services. Reports this week showed 1.4 percent gains in both the cost of imported goods and wholesale prices in January. Both increases were more than anticipated. Almost 60 percent of the CPI covers prices consumers pay for services ranging from medical visits to airline fares and movie tickets. Airline fares fell 2.5 percent in January, the most since February 2009. Companies Reluctant Even with higher production and material costs, U.S. companies are reluctant to pass on the expenses to consumers. Wal-Mart, the world’s largest retailer, reported fourth-quarter sales yesterday that trailed its projection after cutting grocery and electronic prices. The Bentonville, Arkansas-based company reduced the cost of laptop computers, along with turkeys and cranberry sauce for holiday meals, to attract shoppers living paycheck to paycheck. “We see the influence of the paycheck cycle as pronounced now as it’s been in the past,” Chief Financial Officer Tom Schoewe said on a call with reporters. To contact the reporters on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net

Read the full article →

Video: Consumer Prices in U.S. Rise Less Than Anticipated: Video

February 19, 2010

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) — The cost of living in the U.S. rose in January less than anticipated and a measure of prices excluding food and fuel fell for the first time since 1982, indicating the recovery is showing few signs of inflation. Bloomberg’s Betty Liu reports. (Source: Bloomberg)

Read the full article →