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Osborne, Hague, Cable, Fox in Cameron’s Cabinet as Liberal Democrats Join

May 12, 2010

By Mark Deen and Gonzalo Vina May 12 (Bloomberg) — Prime Minister David Cameron will name his Cabinet today after his Conservative Party forged a power-sharing accord with Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats. The ministerial team comprises up to four Liberal Democrats. Following are some key figures. George Osborne , Chancellor of the Exchequer The 38-year-old has been an architect of Conservative strategy since he helped Cameron win the party leadership in 2005. A graduate of Oxford University, he did a stint in journalism before starting to work for the Conservatives in 1994. He entered Parliament in the 2001 election. As the lawmaker responsible for Conservative economic policy, in 2007 he promised to impose a flat tax on foreigners living in the U.K. and cut levies on inheritance and home purchases. The pledges helped the Conservatives overtake Labour in opinion polls. His commitment to fixing the public finances was questioned during the election campaign when he pledged to use 6 billion pounds ($9 billion) of spending cuts this year to lower payroll taxes rather than reduce the budget deficit. Osborne, whose family owns the Osborne & Little wallpaper company, is a father of two. William Hague , Foreign Secretary A former leader of the Conservative Party, Hague is one of the most experienced members of Cameron’s team. A graduate of Oxford University and Insead business school, he was elected to Parliament in 1989 and later became a minister in Prime Minister John Major’s government. At 36, Hague became the youngest leader of his party since the 18th century when the Conservatives lost power in 1997. He resigned in 2001 when the Conservatives gained just one seat in the election that led to Tony Blair’s second term. Hague has regularly stood in for Cameron in House of Commons debates, underlining his seniority within the Conservative leadership. In his role as the lawmaker responsible for Conservative foreign policy, he said in 2006 that Britain’s relationship with the U.S. should be “solid but never slavish,” a criticism of Blair’s outspoken support of the U.S. Hague, 49, is married without children. Vince Cable , Business/Banking Liberal Democrat Cable, 67, will be given responsibility over business and banking, according to BBC Radio. He entered Parliament in 1997, representing the West London constituency of Twickenham and has held the economic portfolio for the party since 2003 and been its deputy leader since 2006. He came to prominence during the global financial crisis. He had warned of high levels of indebtedness in the U.K. a year before the crisis spilled onto Britain’s high streets when Northern Rock Plc needed government aid to stay in business. Attacking Brown’s record as prime minister, Cable said in 2007 he had gone through a “remarkable transformation in the last few weeks from Stalin to Mr. Bean.” Cable came to the Liberal Democrats as a member of the Social Democratic Party, which broke away from the Labour Party in the 1908s. Cable advised former Labour leader John Smith when he was Labour’s Trade Secretary in 1979, according to Robert Waller and Byron Criddle’s Almanac of British Politics.     Cable served as a Labour Councillor in Glasgow between 1971 and 1974, before joining the Social Democrat Party. Before entering politics, Cable was chief economist at Royal Dutch Shell Plc. He was educated at Cambridge Universsity and Glasgow University, where he gained a Phd in economics.     Cable remarried in 2006 after the death of his first wife. He told BBC Radio 4 last year that he wears rings from both marriages. Liam Fox , Defense Secretary A medical doctor whose family lived in public housing when he was a child, Fox was first elected to Parliament in 1992. In John Major’s Conservative government, he served as a party whip in the House of Commons and a junior minister at the Foreign Office. When the Conservatives lost a third straight election in 2005, Fox sought election as party leader and placed third behind Cameron and David Davis . Since taking responsibility for Conservative defense policy in December that year, Fox has urged better treatment of soldiers and pledged to renegotiate some military procurement contracts. Fox, 48, is married with no children. To contact the reporters on this story: Mark Deen in London at markdeen@bloomberg.net ; Gonzalo Vina in London at gvina@bloomberg.net

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Cameron Leads First U.K. Coalition Since World War II With Clegg as Deputy

May 12, 2010

By Robert Hutton and Thomas Penny May 12 (Bloomberg) — Conservative leader David Cameron struck a deal with Britain’s No. 3 party to form the first coalition government since World War II, ending 13 years of Labour control. “We have deep and pressing problems,” Cameron said following his arrival at the prime minister’s Downing Street residence 90 minutes after Gordon Brown ’s departure last night. “For those reasons, I aim to lead a proper and full coalition. That’s the right way to provide this country with the strong and stable, good and decent government this country needs.” Cameron, 43, replaced Brown after five days of unprecedented talks following elections May 6 that failed to produce a majority for the first time since 1974. His coalition partner, Nick Clegg , head of the Liberal Democrats, became deputy premier. They’ll propose 6 billion pounds ($9 billion) of cuts within 50 days to reduce a record budget deficit , raise the threshold to pay income tax, study a split between retail and investment banking and increase the Bank of England’s oversight of the financial industry, Conservative officials said. With 363 lawmakers in the 650-seat House of Commons , the two-party government may ease investor concern that last week’s inconclusive vote would leave Britain with a leader too weak to fix U.K. finances. The pound and gilts rose yesterday after reports that Cameron was set to succeed Brown. Sterling added 0.7 percent to $1.4956 before slipping to $1.4928. The 10-year gilt yield fell 4 basis points to 3.88 percent. ‘Market’s Favorite’ “A Conservative-Liberal democrat coalition is the market’s favorite outcome,” said Philip Shaw , chief U.K. economist at Investec Plc in London. U.K. government debt will rise to 77 percent of gross domestic product this year and may approach 100 percent by 2014, Standard & Poor’s says. The rating company cut its outlook on the U.K.’s AAA grade from stable in May 2009, saying debt may rise to a level incompatible with its top assessment. “We’re going to form a new government and more important than anything else a new kind of government,” Clegg told reporters after his party approved the deal early today. “I believe we are united in wishing to tackle the immense challenges this country faces and deliver a fairer future for Britain.” Winston Churchill With the deal struck, Cameron and Clegg, 43, each have to overcome skepticism over allying with a traditional antagonist. The Liberals haven’t had a role in government since Winston Churchill led a unity Cabinet 65 years ago. Conservatives have been out of power since 1997. “I would rather be in a minority government,” Conservative lawmaker Graham Brady said. “Realistically, there’s not much more prospect of whatever arrangement is reached lasting for very long.” “The odds are against it lasting four years,” said Andrew Russell , a lecturer at Manchester University, and author of “Neither Left Nor Right,” a history of the Liberal Democrats. “It’s possible it could last a couple of years. A lot depends on personal chemistry.” Buckingham Palace Standing outside his official residence in London, Brown announced his resignation and then travelled the mile to Buckingham Palace to tender his resignation to Queen Elizabeth II and recommend Cameron as his successor. She then summoned Cameron and asked him to form a government. In the May 6 election, the Conservatives won 306 districts, a net gain of 97 from the previous election in 2005. Labour had a net loss of 91 seats to end with 258. The Liberal Democrats lost five seats and now have 57 members of Parliament. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats agree to reconcile campaign differences over Cameron’s proposals to cut spending and lower inheritance taxes and Clegg’s bid to eliminate income taxes on those with the lowest incomes and loosen immigration rules. There are also disagreements over policy toward the European Union. Clegg favors dropping the pound for the euro under the right circumstances, a stance opposed by Cameron. The parties agreed Britain wouldn’t join the euro . Sarkozy, Merkel Clegg attacked the Conservative leader during an April 15 debate over his decision to pull his party out of an alliance in the European Parliament with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel and join up with euro- skeptic east Europeans. The Liberal Democrat called the Conservatives’ new allies “a bunch of nutters, anti-Semites, people who deny climate change exists, homophobes.” U.S. President Barack Obama called Cameron to congratulate him and invite him to the U.S. later this year. Merkel also called Cameron last night. At 43 years and seven months, Cameron is the youngest U.K. leader since 1812. Tony Blair was four days short of his 44th birthday when he took office in 1997. Cameron has infuriated some on his own side since he became Conservative leader at the end of 2005 with his efforts to reach out beyond traditional supporters. He put forward a pro-gay rights agenda and opposed building another runway at London’s Heathrow Airport on environmental grounds. Cameron and his wife Samantha divided their time between the North Kensington district of west London where they have their main home and the district he represents in Parliament, Witney, 70 miles (110 kilometers) west of London. Genetic Illness The couple has two young children and a baby due in September. Last year their first son, Ivan, who suffered from a rare genetic illness, died at the age of six. Cameron is the kind of Conservative leader Britain hasn’t seen in decades: someone from a wealthy background who went to Eton, Britain’s most famous private school. His ancestors include King Henry VII, who ruled in the 15th century, and at least seven earls. British politics has seen a backlash against politicians from upper-class families since the mid-20th century. The last such Conservative leader was Alec Douglas-Home, a Scottish earl who in 1963 gave up the noble title he inherited from his father, and his seat in the unelected House of Lords, so he could gain election to the House of Commons and become prime minister. He lasted 12 months before losing to Labour’s Harold Wilson in the October 1964 general election. To contact the reporters on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net ; Thomas Penny in London at tpenny@bloomberg.net

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Stocks Rise in Europe to Highest Level in a Week as Earnings Top Estimates

May 12, 2010

By Sarah Jones May 12 (Bloomberg) — European stocks rose as earnings from A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S and ING Groep NV outweighed lingering concern that the region’s most-indebted nations will struggle to contain their budget deficits. U.S. index futures fluctuated and Asian shares were little changed. Maersk, owner of the world’s largest container-shipping line, and ING, the biggest Dutch financial-services company, rallied more than 5 percent after returning to profit in the first quarter. UniCredit SpA rose 1.6 percent as the Italian bank posted earnings that beat analysts’ estimates. Spain’s IBEX 35 index gained 1.3 percent as the government announced a package of spending cuts. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 1.1 percent to 255.58 at 10:20 a.m. in London. The benchmark gauge has surged 7.8 percent this week after the European Union unveiled a 750 billion-euro ($949 billion) financial assistance program backed by European Central Bank bond purchases aimed at stopping the region’s fiscal crisis from spreading. “Companies continue to come through with strong numbers and economic numbers have continued to surprise positively,” said London-based Kevin Lilley , who helps oversee about $2 billion at Royal London Asset Management. “Spain’s austerity measures seem to be positive for the market. Greece was a whipping boy to get Spain to comply.” U.S., Asian Stocks Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fluctuated as the Wall Street Journal said Morgan Stanley is being probed over allegations it misled investors about mortgage derivatives it helped put together and sometimes bet against. The newspaper cited people familiar with the matter. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed. Spain said it will reduce public wages by 5 percent this year and suspend a planned increase in pensions in response to calls from European finance ministers for deeper budget cuts. The measures will reduce the deficit by an additional 1.5 percentage points of gross domestic product over two years, taking the shortfall to 6 percent of GDP in 2011. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index climbed 0.4 percent as Conservative leader David Cameron struck a deal with the Liberal Democrats to form the first coalition government since World War II. New chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne , will prepare an emergency budget within 50 days containing 6 billion pounds ($9 billion) of spending cuts to narrow Britain’s record deficit. European GDP Europe’s economy expanded at a faster pace than economists forecast in the first quarter as a global recovery boosted exports, helping the region overcome the fiscal crisis and consumers’ reluctance to increase spending. Gross domestic product in the 16 euro nations rose 0.2 percent from the fourth quarter, the EU’s statistics office said. Economists had forecast growth of 0.1 percent, the median of 31 estimates in a Bloomberg survey showed. Maersk jumped 7.4 percent to 47,980 kroner. The company said first-quarter net income including minority interests was 3.44 billion kroner ($584 million) compared with a 2.13 billion- krone loss a year earlier. Sales climbed 13 percent to 71 billion kroner. ING surged 5.8 percent to 7.14 euros after the financial- services company reported a first quarter profit of 1.33 billion euros as writedowns narrowed, bad loans fell and it booked a gain on the sale of Asian and Swiss private-banking businesses. Earnings beat the 981 million-euro average estimate of 12 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. UniCredit Earnings UniCredit climbed 1.6 percent to 1.97 euros. Italy’s biggest bank reported a 16 percent increase in first-quarter profit to 520 million euros on trading income and said it’s exploring all strategic options for its Pioneer Global Asset Management unit. Earnings beat the 364 million-euro median estimate of 15 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Deutsche Telekom AG increased 2.7 percent to 9.06 euros after Europe’s largest phone company returned to profit in the first quarter after a loss a year earlier when it wrote down the value of its T-Mobile U.K. unit by 1.8 billion euros. Net income was 767 million euros from a loss of 1.12 billion euros in the year-earlier period. To contact the reporter on this story: Sarah Jones in London at sjones35@bloomberg.net .

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Cameron Becomes U.K. Prime Minister as Clegg Accepts Coalition, Deputy Job

May 11, 2010

By Robert Hutton and Kitty Donaldson May 11 (Bloomberg) — Conservative leader David Cameron struck a deal with Britain’s No. 3 party to form the first coalition government since World War II, ending 13 years of Labour control. “We have deep and pressing problems,” Cameron said following his arrival at the prime minister’s Downing Street residence 90 minutes after Gordon Brown ’s departure tonight. “For those reasons, I aim to lead a proper and full coalition. That’s the right way to provide this country with the strong and stable, good and decent government this country needs.” Cameron, 43, replaced Brown after five days of unprecedented talks following elections May 6 that failed to produce a majority for the first time since 1974. His coalition partner, Nick Clegg , head of the Liberal Democrats, became deputy premier. They’ll introduce 6 billion pounds of cuts within 50 days to reduce a record budget deficit , raise the starting point to pay income tax, study a division between retail and investment banking and increase the Bank of England’s oversight of the financial industry, Conservative officials said last night. With 363 lawmakers in the 650-seat House of Commons , the two-party government may ease investor concern that last week’s inconclusive vote would leave Britain with a leader too weak to fix U.K. finances. The pound and gilts rose after reports that Cameron was set to succeed Brown. Sterling added 0.7 percent to $1.4956 before slipping to $1.4928. The 10-year gilt yield fell 4 basis points to 3.88 percent. ‘Market’s Favorite’ “A Conservative-Liberal democrat coalition is the market’s favorite outcome,” said Philip Shaw , chief U.K. economist at Investec Plc in London. U.K. government debt will rise to 77 percent of gross domestic product this year and may approach 100 percent by 2014, Standard & Poor’s says. The rating company cut its outlook on the U.K.’s AAA grade from stable in May 2009, saying debt may rise to a level incompatible with its top assessment. With the deal struck, Cameron and Clegg each have to overcome scepticism over allying with a traditional antagonist. The Liberals haven’t had a role in government since Winston Churchill led a unity Cabinet 65 years ago. Conservatives have been out of power since 1997. “I would rather be in a minority government,” Conservative lawmaker Graham Brady said. “Realistically, there’s not much more prospect of whatever arrangement is reached lasting for very long.” Against the Odds “The odds are against it lasting four years,” said Andrew Russell , a lecturer at Manchester University, and author of “Neither Left Nor Right,” a history of the Liberal Democrats. “It’s possible it could last a couple of years. A lot depends on personal chemistry.” Standing outside his official residence in London tonight, Brown said he was quitting and then travelled the mile to Buckingham Palace to tender his resignation to Queen Elizabeth II and recommend that Cameron takes over. She then summoned Cameron and asked him to form a government. In the May 6 election, the Conservatives won 306 districts, a net gain of 97 from the previous election in 2005. Labour had a net loss of 91 seats to end with 258. The Liberal Democrats lost five seats and now have 57 members of Parliament. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats disagreed during the campaign over Cameron’s proposals to cut spending this year and lower inheritance taxes and Clegg’s bid to eliminate income taxes on those with the lowest incomes and loosen immigration rules. European Disagreement There are differences over policy toward the European Union. Clegg favors dropping the pound for the euro under the right circumstances, a stance opposed by Cameron. The parties agreed Britain wouldn’t join the euro. Clegg also attacked the Conservative leader during an April 15 debate over his decision to pull his party out of an alliance in the European Parliament with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel and join up with euro- skeptic east Europeans. The Liberal Democrat called the Conservatives’ new allies “a bunch of nutters, anti-Semites, people who deny climate change exists, homophobes.” U.S. President Barack Obama called Cameron earlier today to congratulate him and invite him to the U.S. later this year. The outlines of the agreement to govern were sealed after four days of negotiations between teams of negotiators and two face-to-face meetings between Clegg, 43, and Cameron over the weekend. Youngest Leader At 43 and seven months, Cameron is the youngest U.K. leader since 1812. Tony Blair was four days short of his 44th birthday when he took office in 1997. Cameron has infuriated some on his own side since he became Conservative leader at the end of 2005 with his efforts to reach out beyond traditional supporters. He put forward a pro-gay rights agenda and opposed building another runway at London’s Heathrow Airport on environmental grounds. Cameron and his wife Samantha divide their time between the North Kensington district of west London where they have their main home and the district he represents in Parliament, Witney, 70 miles (110 kilometers) west of London. They will now move in to 10 Downing Street, the official residence of British prime ministers in central London. The couple have two young children and a baby due in September. Last year their first son, Ivan, who suffered from a rare genetic illness, died aged six. Cameron’s Background Cameron is the kind of Conservative leader Britain hasn’t seen in decades: someone from a wealthy background who went to Eton, Britain’s most famous private school, and whose ancestors include King Henry VII, who ruled in the 15th century, and at least seven earls. British politics has seen a backlash against politicians from upper-class families since the mid-20th century. The last such Conservative leader was Alec Douglas-Home, a Scottish earl who in 1963 gave up the noble title he inherited from his father, and his seat in the unelected House of Lords, so he could gain election to the House of Commons and become prime minister. He lasted 12 months before losing to Labour’s Harold Wilson in the October 1964 general election. To contact the reporters on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net ; Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net

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Stocks, Oil Drop on Bailout Skepticism; Pound, Gilts Gain

May 11, 2010

By Rita Nazareth and Michael P. Regan May 11 (Bloomberg) — Stocks fell, led by commodity producers and banks, and oil and copper slid on skepticism an almost $1 trillion European loan package will halt the region’s debt crisis. The pound gained as Conservative leader David Cameron was appointed prime minister. Gold rose to a record. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.3 percent at 4 p.m. in New York following a 4.4 percent jump yesterday after the European plan was announced. The MSCI World Index dropped 0.7 percent. Oil fell on a stronger dollar, while copper slid on concern growth will slow in Europe and China. The pound rose 0.8 percent to near $1.50 and added 1.5 percent versus the euro on speculation Cameron will form a coalition with Liberal Democrats and take aggressive steps to cut the deficit. Ten-year gilt yields fell 4 basis points to 3.9 percent. The European Union’s unprecedented bailout package is unlikely to be a “long-term solution” for the region, Marek Belka , the director of the International Monetary Fund’s European department, said in Brussels yesterday. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told U.S. senators in a closed-door session that the plan isn’t a cure-all, said Alabama Senator Richard Shelby , the senior Republican on the Banking Committee. “I think 24 hours after the realization that there’s a solution in Europe, people are more reflective right now on what does that solution mean longer term,” Gary Cohn , president and chief operating officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said this morning at a UBS AG conference in New York. “Are we socializing the risk throughout Europe?” China Bear Market Chinese stocks entered a bear market as inflation in the nation accelerated to an 18-month high, increasing pressure on the government to raise interest rates in an economy that has been an engine of growth through the global financial crisis. U.S. stocks pared early declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average recovering most of a 100-point drop, on speculation Cameron’s government will cut the U.K. budget deficit and prevent the European debt crisis from worsening. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed down 0.5 percent after tumbling as much as 2.2 percent. Producers of raw materials and energy and financial firms fell the most among 10 groups in the S&P 500, dropping at least 0.5 percent each. Occidental Petroleum Corp., Alcoa Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. fell at least 1.3 percent each. Newmont Mining Corp., the largest U.S. gold producer, jumped 4.9 percent as the precious metal rose 2.9 percent to a record $1,235.20 an ounce on demand for a safe haven amid fluctuations in currency markets. Euro Retreats The euro slumped 0.9 percent to $1.2676, erasing yesterday’s advance. The currency has tumbled more than 11 percent versus the dollar this year. The dollar strengthened against 11 of 16 major counterparts, gaining more than 1 percent versus the Swedish krona and Brazilian real. Traders are betting the plan to rescue debt-laden governments from Greece to Portugal will fail to reverse the euro’s worst start to a year since 2000, forcing the European Central Bank to keep interest rates at a record low for longer. Economic growth in the nations that share the euro will lag behind the U.S. by almost 1.5 percentage points next year, Bloomberg surveys of economists show. “I understand the concerns around what’s going on in Europe, and it’s going to have a dampening effect on economic activity for sure,” Kevin Rendino , who manages $11 billion in Plainsboro, New Jersey, for BlackRock Inc., said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “But we still see the glass half- filled.” Libor Rises The rate banks pay for three-month dollar loans held near the highest level in about nine months as Europe’s loan plan failed to encourage institutions to lend more to each other. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, rose to 0.423 percent today from 0.421 percent yesterday, according to data from the British Bankers’ Association. Libor reached 0.428 percent on May 7, the highest since Aug. 17, on concern the sovereign-debt crisis triggered by Greece’s budget deficit is hurting the quality of loan collateral. Banks led the drop in the Stoxx 600, with the group sliding as much as 4.4 percent before paring losses and ending down 1.8 percent. Banco Santander SA , Spain’s largest lender, slipped 3.3 percent after surging 23 percent yesterday, its biggest rally in 20 years. Deutsche Boerse AG slipped 1.5 percent in Frankfurt after reporting earnings that missed analysts’ estimates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.1 percent, paring yesterday’s 1.5 percent advance. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slipped 0.9 percent as the retreat in Chinese shares was offset by gains of more than 3.5 percent in Russian and Philippine equity markets, which were closed for trading yesterday. Philippine Peso The Philippine peso strengthened 0.8 percent against the dollar, the most among major emerging-market currencies, after Benigno Aquino headed for a landslide presidential election victory, ending concern that the result would be contested. The Shanghai Composite Index sank 1.9 percent, bringing its decline from a Nov. 23 high to 21 percent. Investors are concerned that accelerating inflation and surging property prices in China will spur the government to boost interest rates for the first time since 2007, slowing growth in the world’s fastest-expanding major economy and biggest metals user. Commodities pared an earlier drop, with the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index slipping 0.1 percent. Crude oil fell 0.6 percent to $76.37 a barrel, while copper futures for June delivery fell 0.7 percent to $3.2065 a pound in New York. To contact the reporter for this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net ; Michael P. Regan in New York at mregan12@bloomberg.net .

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Stocks, Oil Drop on Skepticism About Europe’s Debt Plan; Pound, Gilts Gain

May 11, 2010

By Rita Nazareth and Michael P. Regan May 11 (Bloomberg) — Stocks fell, led by commodity producers and banks, and oil and copper slid on skepticism an almost $1 trillion European loan package will halt the region’s debt crisis. The pound gained as Conservative leader David Cameron was appointed prime minister. Gold rose to a record. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.3 percent at 4 p.m. in New York following a 4.4 percent jump yesterday after the European plan was announced. The MSCI World Index dropped 0.7 percent. Oil fell on a stronger dollar, while copper slid on concern growth will slow in Europe and China. The pound rose 0.8 percent to near $1.50 and added 1.5 percent versus the euro on speculation Cameron will form a coalition with Liberal Democrats and take aggressive steps to cut the deficit. Ten-year gilt yields fell 4 basis points to 3.9 percent. The European Union’s unprecedented bailout package is unlikely to be a “long-term solution” for the region, Marek Belka , the director of the International Monetary Fund’s European department, said in Brussels yesterday. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told U.S. senators in a closed-door session that the plan isn’t a cure-all, said Alabama Senator Richard Shelby , the senior Republican on the Banking Committee. “I think 24 hours after the realization that there’s a solution in Europe, people are more reflective right now on what does that solution mean longer term,” Gary Cohn , president and chief operating officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said this morning at a UBS AG conference in New York. “Are we socializing the risk throughout Europe?” China Bear Market Chinese stocks entered a bear market as inflation in the nation accelerated to an 18-month high, increasing pressure on the government to raise interest rates in an economy that has been an engine of growth through the global financial crisis. U.S. stocks pared early declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average recovering most of a 100-point drop, on speculation Cameron’s government will cut the U.K. budget deficit and prevent the European debt crisis from worsening. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed down 0.5 percent after tumbling as much as 2.2 percent. Producers of raw materials and energy and financial firms fell the most among 10 groups in the S&P 500, dropping at least 0.5 percent each. Occidental Petroleum Corp., Alcoa Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. fell at least 1.3 percent each. Newmont Mining Corp., the largest U.S. gold producer, jumped 4.9 percent as the precious metal rose 2.9 percent to a record $1,235.20 an ounce on demand for a safe haven amid fluctuations in currency markets. Euro Retreats The euro slumped 0.9 percent to $1.2676, erasing yesterday’s advance. The currency has tumbled more than 11 percent versus the dollar this year. The dollar strengthened against 11 of 16 major counterparts, gaining more than 1 percent versus the Swedish krona and Brazilian real. Traders are betting the plan to rescue debt-laden governments from Greece to Portugal will fail to reverse the euro’s worst start to a year since 2000, forcing the European Central Bank to keep interest rates at a record low for longer. Economic growth in the nations that share the euro will lag behind the U.S. by almost 1.5 percentage points next year, Bloomberg surveys of economists show. “I understand the concerns around what’s going on in Europe, and it’s going to have a dampening effect on economic activity for sure,” Kevin Rendino , who manages $11 billion in Plainsboro, New Jersey, for BlackRock Inc., said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “But we still see the glass half- filled.” Libor Rises The rate banks pay for three-month dollar loans held near the highest level in about nine months as Europe’s loan plan failed to encourage institutions to lend more to each other. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, rose to 0.423 percent today from 0.421 percent yesterday, according to data from the British Bankers’ Association. Libor reached 0.428 percent on May 7, the highest since Aug. 17, on concern the sovereign-debt crisis triggered by Greece’s budget deficit is hurting the quality of loan collateral. Banks led the drop in the Stoxx 600, with the group sliding as much as 4.4 percent before paring losses and ending down 1.8 percent. Banco Santander SA , Spain’s largest lender, slipped 3.3 percent after surging 23 percent yesterday, its biggest rally in 20 years. Deutsche Boerse AG slipped 1.5 percent in Frankfurt after reporting earnings that missed analysts’ estimates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.1 percent, paring yesterday’s 1.5 percent advance. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slipped 0.9 percent as the retreat in Chinese shares was offset by gains of more than 3.5 percent in Russian and Philippine equity markets, which were closed for trading yesterday. Philippine Peso The Philippine peso strengthened 0.8 percent against the dollar, the most among major emerging-market currencies, after Benigno Aquino headed for a landslide presidential election victory, ending concern that the result would be contested. The Shanghai Composite Index sank 1.9 percent, bringing its decline from a Nov. 23 high to 21 percent. Investors are concerned that accelerating inflation and surging property prices in China will spur the government to boost interest rates for the first time since 2007, slowing growth in the world’s fastest-expanding major economy and biggest metals user. Commodities pared an earlier drop, with the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index slipping 0.1 percent. Crude oil fell 0.6 percent to $76.37 a barrel, while copper futures for June delivery fell 0.7 percent to $3.2065 a pound in New York. To contact the reporter for this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net ; Michael P. Regan in New York at mregan12@bloomberg.net .

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U.S. Stocks Rise on Speculation Incoming U.K. Government Will Cut Deficit

May 11, 2010

By Elizabeth Stanton May 11 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average recovering from a 100-point drop, as speculation a new British government will cut the U.K. budget deficit eased concern that Europe’s debt crisis will worsen. Walt Disney Co., Home Depot Inc. and American Express Co. climbed at least 1 percent for the top gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Consumer and technology shares led the advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, with Gannett Co. and Apple Inc. climbing. The S&P 500 rose 0.7 percent to 1,167.28 at 12:53 p.m. in New York. The Dow climbed 55.09 points, or 0.5 percent, to 10,840.23 after surging 405 points yesterday. “The closer we get to any form of clarity surrounding the various issues and uncertainty in Europe will help to stabilize the markets and ease selling pressure,” said Mark Turner , head of U.S. sales trading at Instinet LLC, which handles about 4 percent of U.S. equity trading volume. Earlier losses in stocks came amid growing skepticism that an almost $1 trillion emergency lending program will be enough to halt Europe’s debt crisis. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.5 percent after losing as much as 2.2 percent. The S&P 500 yesterday surged 4.4 percent and the VIX, the benchmark for U.S. stock options, had a record drop after European policy makers unveiled an unprecedented loan package and a program of bond purchases to contain the region’s sovereign-debt crisis. ‘Encouraging Close’ “We had a pretty encouraging close yesterday,” said Craig Peckham, equity trading strategist at Jefferies & Co. in New York. “The market was actually able to rally in the last hour and hold the gains. A lot of people watched the massive short- covering rally with much trepidation, not sure it was going to hold, so that was a very positive message.” In the U.K. today, talks between the Liberal Democrats and Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s Labour Party on forming a coalition collapsed, the British Broadcasting Corp. reported, without citing sources. “In this situation the best option is a Conservative- Liberal Democrat coalition and that’s what we’re going to get,” said Marc Ostwald, a fixed-income strategist at Monument Securities Ltd. in London. Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg said earlier today that talks to form a government were entering their endgame after his Conservative counterpart, David Cameron, pressed for a decision on a coalition offer. Concern About Europe Yesterday’s advance for the S&P 500 followed an 8.7 percent slide since April 23 and the biggest weekly retreat since the start of the bull market in March 2009 as concern grew that European leaders weren’t doing enough to keep indebted nations from defaulting. Walt Disney rose 1.6 percent to $35.87. The world’s biggest media company is scheduled to report fiscal second-quarter results after the market closes. Better-than-estimated first- quarter results by 77 percent of the S&P 500 companies that have reported helped drive the benchmark to a 19-month high on April 23. Home Depot, the largest U.S. home-improvement retailer gained 1.9 percent to $35.95. American Express, the biggest U.S. credit-card issuer by purchases, climbed 2.6 percent to $44.20. Gannett , the owner of USA Today and television stations, rose 6.9 percent to $17.14 for the second-biggest advance in the S&P 500. Legg Mason Inc. rose 15 percent to $34.45, the most in the index, after the money manager outlined plans to cut costs and buy back as much as $1 billion of stock. Apple, Gold Apple, the maker of MacIntosh computers, iPod music players and the iPhone, contributed most to the index’s advance, rising 2.2 percent to $259.56. Gold futures for June delivery rose $18.10, or 1.5 percent, to $1,218.90 on the Comex in New York, as safe-haven demand rose amid concerns about European debt. Earlier it reached $1,225.20, just short of the record $1,227.50 an ounce on Dec. 3. Newmont Mining Corp. , the largest U.S. gold producer, rose 5.4 percent to $58.46. Priceline.com Inc. dropped 12 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $220.09. The second-biggest online travel agency said second-quarter profit will fall short of analysts’ estimates after the euro weakened and a political crisis in Greece threatened consumers’ travel plans. To contact the reporters on this story: Elizabeth Stanton in New York at estanton@bloomberg.net .

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Global Stocks Pare Losses as Pound, Gilts Rally on Coalition Speculation

May 11, 2010

By Rita Nazareth and Michael P. Regan May 11 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks erased losses and European equities pared declines, while the pound and gilts advanced, on speculation British politicians will form a majority government that will try to cut the nation’s deficit. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.4 percent to 1,164.81 at 12:42 p.m. in New York after tumbling as much as 1 percent earlier. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.5 percent, recovering from a 2.2 percent slide. The pound rose 0.8 percent to $1.4969, reversing a drop of as much as 0.9 percent. The yield on the 10-year U.K. government bond fell 3 basis points to 3.89 percent. Treasuries declined, sending the 10-year note’s yield up two basis points to 3.56 percent. Oil rose. Global equities trimmed earlier declines on speculation U.K. Conservative leader David Cameron is nearing agreement on forming a coalition government with Nick Clegg ’s Liberal Democrats. Negotiators for both their parties met today and the British Broadcasting Corp. reported that discussions between Prime Minister Gordon Brown ’s Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats, Britain’s third party, had finished. “The market likes clarity,” said Michael Mullaney , who helps manage $9 billion at Fiduciary Trust Co. in Boston. “There are significant structural issues in Europe from a fiscal standpoint. So, a definition of the U.K. situation would definitely have an important psychological effect on the market.” Equities slid earlier as optimism faded that a nearly $1 trillion emergency European loan plan would bolster the region’s economy. The European Union’s unprecedented bailout package is unlikely to be a “long-term solution” for the region, Marek Belka , the director of the International Monetary Fund’s European department, said in Brussels yesterday. China Bear Market Chinese stocks entered a bear market as inflation in the nation accelerated to an 18-month high, increasing pressure on the government to raise interest rates in an economy that has been an engine of growth through the global financial crisis. The rate banks pay for three-month dollar loans held near the highest level in about nine months as Europe’s loan plan failed to encourage institutions to lend more to each other. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, rose to 0.423 percent today from 0.421 percent yesterday, according to data from the British Bankers’ Association. Libor reached 0.428 percent on May 7, the highest since Aug. 17, on concern the sovereign-debt crisis triggered by Greece’s budget deficit is hurting the quality of loan collateral. Banks led the drop in the Stoxx 600, with the group sliding as much as 4.4 percent before paring losses and ending down 1.8 percent. European Banks Banco Santander SA , Spain’s largest lender, slipped 3.3 percent after surging 23 percent yesterday, its biggest rally in 20 years. Deutsche Boerse AG slipped 1.5 percent in Frankfurt after reporting earnings that missed analysts’ estimates. The euro slumped 0.6 percent to $1.2715, erasing yesterday’s advance. The currency has tumbled more than 11 percent versus the dollar this year. Traders are betting the plan to rescue debt-laden governments from Greece to Portugal will fail to reverse the euro’s worst start to a year since 2000, forcing the European Central Bank to keep interest rates at a record low for longer. Economic growth in the nations that share the euro will lag behind the U.S. by almost 1.5 percentage points next year, Bloomberg surveys of economists show. ‘More Reflective’ “I think 24 hours after the realization that there’s a solution in Europe, people are more reflective right now on what does that solution mean longer term,” Gary Cohn , president and chief operating officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said this morning at a UBS AG conference in New York. “Are we socializing the risk throughout Europe?” The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.1 percent, paring yesterday’s 1.5 percent advance. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slipped 0.4 percent as the retreat in Chinese shares was offset by gains of more than 3.5 percent in Russian and Philippine equity markets, which were closed for trading yesterday. The Philippine peso strengthened 0.8 percent against the dollar, the most among major emerging-market currencies, after Benigno Aquino headed for a landslide presidential election victory, ending concern that the result would be contested. The Shanghai Composite Index sank 1.9 percent, bringing its decline from a Nov. 23 high to 21 percent. Investors are concerned that accelerating inflation and surging property prices in China will spur the government to boost interest rates for the first time since 2007, slowing growth in the world’s fastest-expanding major economy and biggest metals user. Commodities erased an earlier drop, with the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index gaining 0.2 percent after sliding as much as 0.7 percent. Crude oil rose 0.3 percent to $77.04 a barrel. To contact the reporter for this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net ; Michael P. Regan in New York at mregan12@bloomberg.net .

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Stocks Retreat in Europe After Biggest Gain in a Year; Santander, Rio Fall

May 11, 2010

By Julie Cruz May 11 (Bloomberg) — European stocks fell on concern a $1 trillion lending package, which sent the Stoxx Europe 600 Index to the biggest gain in 17 months yesterday, won’t solve the region’s debt crisis. Asian shares and U.S. index futures slid. Banco Santander SA , Spain’s biggest lender, sank 4.4 percent as banks led declines in Europe. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, retreated 2.2 percent as accelerating Chinese inflation increased pressure for the government to tighten monetary policy. Solarworld AG slid to the lowest level in almost five years after earnings dropped. The Stoxx 600 slid 1.6 percent to 250.19 at 11:00 a.m. in London. The benchmark gauge for European shares jumped 7.2 percent yesterday after the European Union and International Monetary Fund unveiled a 750 billion-euro ($954 billion) financial assistance package and the European Central Bank said it will purchase government and private debt. The index is still down 8.1 percent from this year’s high on April 15. “You cannot resolve the debt crisis by issuing more debt or putting up guarantees,” Christian Blaabjerg , the Hellerup, Denmark-based chief equity strategist at Saxo Bank A/S, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Markets will come back and test the will of the ECB/EU on how to deal with this enormous debt.” Asian, U.S. Stocks The MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 1 percent as China’s inflation accelerated, bank lending exceeded estimates and property prices jumped by a record, increasing pressure on the government to raise interest rates and let the currency appreciate. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 1 percent. The Stoxx 600 retreated 8.8 percent last week, the biggest slump since November 2008, amid concern that a previously announced 110 billion-euro assistance program for Greece would be insufficient to keep Europe’s most indebted nations from defaulting. Greece may have its credit rating lowered to junk within the next month, Moody’s said late yesterday, citing the country’s “dismal” economic prospects. Marek Belka , the director of the International Monetary Fund’s European department, yesterday said he doesn’t consider the latest European rescue package a “long-term solution.” ECB council member Axel Weber said the bank’s purchase of government bonds poses “significant” risks, Germany’s Boersen-Zeitung reported. Willing to Resign In the U.K., Gordon Brown said last night he’s willing to resign as prime minister and leader of Britain’s Labour Party, clearing the way for talks with Nick Clegg ’s Liberal Democrats on forming a government. Brown’s surprise announcement came just an hour after indications that the Liberal Democrats were struggling to seal an alliance with David Cameron ’s Conservatives following the inconclusive May 6 election. Santander fell 4.4 percent to 9.08 euros after yesterday jumping 23 percent, leading the Stoxx 600 Banks Index to a 3.4 percent decline. Barclays Plc sank 3.8 percent to 317.15 pence, while Allied Irish Banks Plc slumped 7.8 percent to 1.27 euros. BHP Billiton dropped 2.2 percent to 1,939 pence and Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-biggest mining company, lost 3 percent to 3,265 pence as copper slid as much as 1.7 percent. Basic-resource shares had the second-biggest drop among 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600 . Salzgitter AG lost 2.3 percent to 56.67 euros. Germany’s second-biggest steelmaker was downgraded to “sell” from “buy” at UBS AG, which said “the risks are now more biased to the downside as the current uncertain real demand outlook and the usual summer lull reduces the likelihood of any panic buying of steel in the near term.” Solarworld, Deutsche Boerse Solarworld slid 6.4 percent to 9.17 euros, the lowest level since July 2005. The German solar-panel maker said first-quarter earnings before interest and taxes fell to 24.8 million euros from 37.8 million euros. Deutsche Boerse AG retreated 1.6 percent to 54.66 euros. Europe’s biggest exchange said first-quarter net income fell 24 percent to 156.9 million euros, missing the 164.2 million-euro average of six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The company took a charge of 27.8 million euros for previously announced job cuts. Portugal Telecom SGPS SA jumped 8.9 percent to 7.75 euros. Portugal’s biggest telephone company rejected an offer from Telefonica SA for its 50 percent stake in Brasilcel, the venture that controls Brazilian wireless operator Vivo Participacoes SA. Telefonica slid 4.9 percent to 15.89 euros. Deutsche Post AG gained 1.3 percent to 12.09 euros. Europe’s largest mail carrier reported first-quarter net income of 1.7 billion euros. The average estimate of five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was 1.51 billion euros. The company’s shares were raised to “accumulate’ from “hold” at Equinet AG. To contact the reporter on this story: Julie Cruz in Frankfurt at jcruz6@bloomberg.net

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Stocks Retreat in Europe on Concern $1 Trillion Aid Plan Won’t End Crisis

May 11, 2010

By Julie Cruz May 11 (Bloomberg) — European stocks fell on concern a $1 trillion lending package, which sent the Stoxx Europe 600 Index to the biggest gain in 17 months yesterday, won’t solve the region’s debt crisis. Asian shares and U.S. index futures slid. Banco Santander SA, Spain’s biggest lender, led banks lower. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, and Rio Tinto Group retreated in London as copper fell. Deutsche Boerse AG slipped 2 percent after reporting earnings that missed analysts’ estimates. The Stoxx 600 sank 1.1 percent to 251.32 at 8:20 a.m. in London. The benchmark gauge for European shares jumped 7.2 percent yesterday after the European Union and International Monetary Fund unveiled a 750 billion-euro ($954 billion) financial assistance package and the European Central Bank said it will purchase government and private debt. “You cannot resolve the debt crisis by issuing more debt or putting up guarantees,” Christian Blaabjerg , the Hellerup, Denmark-based chief equity strategist at Saxo Bank A/S, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Markets will come back and test the will of the ECB/EU on how to deal with this enormous debt.” Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 0.8 percent today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 1 percent as China’s inflation accelerated, bank lending exceeded estimates and property prices jumped by a record, increasing pressure on the government to raise interest rates and let the currency appreciate. ‘Stability Risks’ “The purchase of government bonds poses significant stability risks and that’s why I’m critical toward this part of the ECB council’s decision, even in this extraordinary situation,” ECB council member Axel Weber told Boersen-Zeitung in an interview. The Bundesbank, which he heads, confirmed the remarks. “It’s now critical to keep these risks as minimal as possible.” The comments came after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet indicated in an interview with Bloomberg Television yesterday that the decision to purchase assets wasn’t supported by all 22 council members. Greece may have its credit rating lowered to junk within the next month, Moody’s Investors Service said late yesterday, citing the country’s “dismal” economic prospects. Willing to Resign In the U.K., Gordon Brown said last night he’s willing to resign as prime minister and leader of Britain’s Labour Party, clearing the way for talks with Nick Clegg ’s Liberal Democrats on forming a government. Brown’s surprise announcement came just an hour after indications that the Liberal Democrats were struggling to seal an alliance with David Cameron ’s Conservatives following the inconclusive May 6 election. Santander sank 1.6 percent to 9.35 euros after yesterday jumping 23 percent. BHP Billiton dropped 2.2 percent to 1,939 pence in London. Rio Tinto, the world’s third-biggest mining company, lost 2.7 percent to 3,276.5 pence as copper slid as much as 1.7 percent. Deutsche Boerse retreated 2 percent to 54.46 euros. Europe’s biggest exchange said first-quarter net income fell 24 percent to 156.9 million euros, missing the 164.2 million-euro average of six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The company took a charge of 27.8 million euros for previously announced job cuts. Deutsche Post AG gained 1.5 percent to 12.11 euros. Europe’s largest mail carrier reported first-quarter net income of 1.7 billion euros. The average estimate of five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was 1.51 billion euros. To contact the reporter on this story: Julie Cruz in Frankfurt at jcruz6@bloomberg.net

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Brown Offer to Quit Upends U.K. Coalition Talks as Liberal Democrats Wooed

May 10, 2010

By Thomas Penny and Robert Hutton May 11 (Bloomberg) — Gordon Brown ’s decision to quit threw into disarray efforts to form a U.K. government, pitting his Labour Party against the Conservatives as both bid to forge an alliance with the Liberal Democrats. In the jockeying following May 6 elections that failed to produce a majority, Conservative leader David Cameron sweetened his offer to his Liberal Democrat counterpart, Nick Clegg , as Clegg’s deputies opened negotiations with Labour. These multiparty negotiations to form a government are unprecedented in post-World War II British politics and may unnerve investors as they threaten to drag on. The pound erased gains after Brown’s announcement as analysts and lawmakers suggested the U.K. faced another election by the end of 2011. “Brown has completely destabilized the basis of the Lib Dem-Conservative negotiations,” said Steven Fielding , director of the Centre for British Politics at Nottingham University. “Everyone’s thinking about the next election, which is probably less than 18 months away.” Brown, 59, said he’ll step down as prime minister after leading his party to its worst election result since 1983 after a 27-year career in national politics. Clegg had resisted allying with a politician who was rejected by voters. In the election, the first since 1974 to produce a so- called hung Parliament, Labour lost its House of Commons majority after 13 years, dropping 91 seats to 258. The Conservatives won 306 districts, a net gain of 97 from the previous election. The Liberal Democrats lost five seats and now have 57 members. First Chance Clegg said Cameron was entitled to the first chance to form a government since he won the most votes and Parliament seats. A deal reached after four days of negotiations was deemed unacceptable by Liberal Democrat lawmakers, leading Clegg to phone Cameron, both 43, and demand a full coalition and a referendum on an overhaul of the voting system to favor smaller parties. Brown’s surprise announcement came while Cameron was mulling those demands, pushing the Conservatives to respond by making what William Hague , the party’s foreign-affairs spokesman, called an offer that goes “the extra mile.” Alternative Vote “We will offer to the Liberal Democrats in a coalition government a referendum on the alternative-vote system,” he told reporters. Under such a system, voters number candidates in order of preference. Those choices are taken into account to ensure that the winner has the backing of at least half the electorate. Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system gave the Liberal Democrats 9 percent of the seats in the House of Commons for 23 percent of the popular vote. The party favors proportional representation and the alternative-vote proposal may not go far enough to satisfy it. The parties also disagreed during the campaign over Cameron’s proposals to cut spending this year and lower inheritance taxes and Clegg’s bid to eliminate income taxes on the lowest earners. Since the election, they said they agreed to focus on reducing a record budget deficit forecast by the European Union to be 12 percent of gross domestic product this year. Brown made his announcement shortly after Liberal Democrat spokesman David Laws said his party needed more details from the Conservatives on their proposed alliance’s policies on a voting- system overhaul and taxation. ‘No Desire’ “I have no desire to stay in my position longer than is necessary,” Brown told reporters outside his Downing Street residence in London. Brown will remain as prime minister until a new Labour leader is chosen, something he said would happen by September. Foreign Secretary David Miliband , installed by bookmakers as favorite to win the contest, said candidates would not put themselves forward until there’s a deal on a new government. Last night, Labour Business Secretary Peter Mandelson began formal talks with the Liberal Democrats.     “Gordon Brown has made an important announcement,” Clegg said. “It could be an important element in a smooth transition to the stable government that people deserve — without prejudicing or predicting what the outcome of the talks will be between ourselves and the Labour Party.” ‘Final Attempt’ “The momentum looked like it was taking the Lib Dems towards some sort of partnership with the Conservatives,” said Andrew Russell , a lecturer at Manchester University and author of “Neither Left Nor Right,” a history of the Liberal Democrats. “This is Labour’s final attempt to find common cause with the Liberal Democrats.” Brown had also offered Clegg a referendum on the electoral system. Even if they agree on policies, Labour and the Liberal Democrats together wouldn’t have a majority and would need to bring in the smaller nationalist parties from Wales and Scotland. Nor would all Labour lawmakers back such a deal. “I have serious reservations about an alliance with all these different parties,” said Tom Harris , who represents a district in Glasgow, Scotland. “Given that we did lose badly in the election, we’re not prepared to sell every policy we have in order to keep power for a few short weeks.” “This will not be a sustainable coalition,” said Diane Abbott , who became Britain’s first black woman lawmaker in 1987. “We’ll be at the mercy of tiny parties that simply want to protect their countries from spending cuts.” To contact the reporter on this story: Thomas Penny in London at tpenny@bloomberg.net ; Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net .

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Aquino Heads for Victory in Philippine Presidential Ballot, Leads Estrada

May 10, 2010

By Francisco Alcuaz Jr. and Joel Guinto May 11 (Bloomberg) — Philippine Senator Benigno Aquino , whose mother helped oust former dictator Ferdinand Marcos , was headed for victory in the country’s presidential elections, according to early tallies of the votes. Aquino, 50, had 8.96 million votes, or 41 percent of the ballots tallied in 57 percent of precincts as of 11:11 p.m. local time last night, the Commission on Elections said in Manila. More than 50 million Filipinos were registered for yesterday’s election. Former President Joseph Estrada had 26 percent, and Senator Manuel Villar had 14 percent. The winner gets to lead a country that snares less than a quarter of the foreign investment going to its neighbors, holding back economic growth and forcing more than a million Filipinos abroad every year to look for work. Decades of graft since Marcos took power in 1965 saw the Philippines slump from being Asia’s fourth-biggest economy to the 13th out of 17 tracked by Bloomberg. “It’s going to be quite a daunting task,” said Vishnu Varathan , an economist at Forecast Ltd. in Singapore. “He needs to tighten the fiscal purse strings at a time the recovery is not coming through at the hoped for pace. He needs to broaden the tax base and take away tax breaks.” The Asian Development Bank forecasts growth of 3.8 percent this year, slower than that of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Unemployment is 7.3 percent, second to Indonesia’s 7.9 percent. Aquino, 50, who campaigned on the slogan “If there’s no corruption, there’s no poverty,” had no plans to stand for election until the death of his mother Corazon Aquino in August. His father, Benigno, was jailed by Marcos and assassinated in 1983 on his return from the United States, where he had heart surgery after falling sick in prison. No Experience Besides being his parents’ son, Villar and other critics have said Aquino is unqualified for the challenge facing him, having accomplished little in 12 years as a legislator. Aquino said none of his bills has passed because he picked unpopular causes and refused to compromise. Aquino supporters maintain vice presidential candidate Senator Manuel Roxas would help make up for any deficit in experience. Roxas, a two-time trade secretary, was the Liberal Party’s presidential candidate until he gave way to Aquino. Roxas knows the “twists and turns of legislation,” former Finance Secretary Ramon del Rosario wrote in an opinion article last week. Aquino last week said he’d share “50 percent or 80 percent of the job” with Roxas. Roxas was trailing Jejomar Binay, the mayor of Makati business district, by 37 percent to 40 percent. Economic Team Aquino may still be able to count on Cesar Purisima , a finance secretary under outgoing President Gloria Arroyo . He quit and called on Arroyo to step down in 2005 amid allegations she rigged her election the year before. Purisima helped spearhead an increase in value-added tax that narrowed the budget deficit , which averaged 200 billion pesos ($4.4 billion) from 2002 to 2004, to 12 billion pesos in 2007. Last year the deficit was a record 298.5 billion pesos. Finance Secretary Gary Teves said Arroyo and Congress gave away the 2005 VAT increase with tax breaks. The Department of Finance says it may take six years — a presidential term — to balance the budget and proposes another VAT raise to get there. Higher taxes and a narrower deficit may help the Philippines reduce local and overseas borrowing. The government plans record borrowing of 718.5 billion pesos this year, a third of it from abroad. Foreign Investment Funds are also needed for the roads, ports and airports needed to compete for foreign investment. The Philippines received $1.5 billion in foreign direct investment in 2008, against $7.3 billion for Malaysia, $9.8 billion for Thailand, and $7.9 billion for Indonesia, Association of Southeast Asian Nation statistics show. A reputation for corruption hasn’t helped attract investment. The Philippines was ranked 139th out of 180 by Berlin-based watchdog Transparency International. Arroyo has faced three impeachment attempts over allegations of graft, human rights violations and vote-rigging. She ousted Estrada, 73, a former movie star, who was later convicted on corruption charges and jailed for life. Arroyo pardoned him. Aquino has vowed to prosecute Arroyo when she loses presidential immunity. Villar, 60, was ousted as Senate president after a fellow member alleged he used his influence to divert a highway to his property. He has denied any impropriety and the Senate hasn’t voted on the motion laid by 12 of the 23 senators, including Aquino. As a result of underinvestment, one in four Filipinos live on less than $1.25 a day, according to the World Bank . In 2008, 1.2 million left to work abroad, many of them taking lower-level jobs abroad for higher pay. “The poor state of political governance is affecting economic development,” said Paul Joseph Garcia , chief investment officer at ING Investment Management Ltd. in Manila “The labor force remains highly skilled. Unfortunately, we’re exporting people.” To contact the reporter on this story: Francisco Alcuaz Jr . in Manila at falcuaz@bloomberg.net

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David Isenberg: The Podesta Group: Playing Both PMC Sides

May 10, 2010

While private military contractors are not exactly like the larger traditional, military industrial contractors that everyone knows about, i.e., Lockheed Martin. Northrop Grumman, et cetera, that is not to say they don’t have some things in common with their much larger corporate brethren. Take lobbying, for example. It is well known that for lobbyists there is no such thing as partisanship. It is all about results and getting paid for them. As long as someone can deliver for a lobbyist’s client their ideology and political affiliation don’t matter. And in that regard PMC, like politics, makes for interesting bed fellows. Consider, for example, the Podesta Group. It is just one of the myriad, albeit better connected than many, of DC-based lobbying firms. Or as its website phrases it, a “bipartisan government relations and public affairs firm with a reputation for employing creative strategies to achieve results.” The group was founded in 1988 by brothers John and Tony Podesta. It represents U.S. corporations, as well as non-profits, associations and governments. In 2008, the firm reported nearly $16 million in lobbying income. In 2007, Chairman Tony Podesta was ranked by his peers as the third most influential lobbyist in Washington. John Podesta is President and CEO of the liberal Center for American Progress. Prior to founding the Center in 2003 he served as White House Chief of Staff to President Clinton. He served in the president’s cabinet and as a principal on the National Security Council. Most recently, he served as co-chair of President Obama’s transition team. The Podesta Group’s client list includes both the Professional Services Council and National Public Radio. The Professional Services Council is the national trade association of the government professional and technical services industry. It is solely focused on preserving, improving, and expanding the federal government market for its members. PSC’s more than 330 member companies represent small, medium, and large businesses that provide federal agencies with services of all kinds, including information technology, engineering, logistics, facilities management, operations and maintenance, consulting, international development, scientific, social, environmental services, and more. Its member companies include many PMC heavyweights, both logistics and security, such as AECOM, Aegis Defence, CACI, DynCorp, L-3, MVM, PAE, Triple Canopy, and Xe Services (formerly Blackwater). National Public Radio is, well, I don’t have to introduce NPR. But it is worth noting that NPR is very sympathetic to the Nation magazine’s Jeremy Scahill, perpetual PMC critic and bête noire . Scahill frequently appears on NPR’s Fresh Air. Indeed, search online for Scahill and NPR and you get about 11,000 hits. So, the Podesta Group has the distinction of lobbying for both one of the largest private contractor associations, and a media network, whose coverage of PMC issues, as reflected by its choice of commentators on the subject, is about as balanced as Fox News. Talk about playing both sides! I’ve got to say it’s not every lobbying shop that can simultaneously represent two such directly countervailing groups but the Podesta Group seems to do it nicely. Of course, given that Xe Services, a Professional Services Council member company, has been the subject of countless unbalanced articles, as well as one highly acclaimed, albeit deeply flawed, book, by Scahill one might think that the PSC is not getting good value for its money. Of course, trying to put lipstick on a pig by using lobbyists is hardly new. Back in 2008 this post appeared on the Project on Government Oversight’s blog: Offensive Defense Contractors Politico’s story “Defense contractors buy lobbying muscle” highlights how defense contractors are hiring public relations experts and lobbyists to fight off the bad press and legislative oversight efforts that have stemmed from contracting scandals. A day doesn’t go by without an article on KBR, Blackwater, or the Air Force tanker deal. Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) even started the Smart Contracting Caucus, stating that he wanted to “make sure others who care about procurement have a forum to discuss and push for sound procurement policy.” I’m not much of a conspiracy theorist, but I’m gonna go out on a limb and state that Rep. Davis’ mark on contracting won’t end when he retires later this year. As Politico pointed out, David Marin, formerly the Republican Staff Director on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee (i.e., Ranking Member Davis), is working at the Podesta Group, an influential lobbying shop serving many large defense contractors and the Professional Services Council (PSC). Can you hear the pro-contractor lobbying train coming? PSC, known for educating Congress about federal contracts, is offering similar services to the public. Its pro-contractor spin on federal spending can be found at www.smartcontracting.org. OMG, what a coincidence–that’s the same name as Rep. Davis’ new caucus! POGO was, of course, right about Davis. On November 17, 2008, Davis joined Deloitte Consulting in their Washington, D.C. office. That was six days before he resigned from Congress on November 24. Dave Marin is still at the Podesta Group. His bio says that as the Majority Staff Director for the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee from 2005-2007, he oversaw some of the highest profile congressional investigations in recent years, including the performance of the departments of Defense and Homeland Security contractors.

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Brown `Changes Things Dramatically’ With Offer to Step Down as Labour Head

May 10, 2010

By Thomas Penny and Kitty Donaldson May 10 (Bloomberg) — Gordon Brown ’s decision to step down threw into disarray efforts to form a U.K. government, as the prospect of a new Labour Party leader derailed negotiations between the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives. Brown’s announcement that he’d be willing to quit as prime minister and Labour leader was a bid to woo the Liberal Democrats, who resisted allying with a politician who had led his party to its worst election result in 27 years. The Conservatives struggled to meet the Liberal Democrats’ demand of overhauling the voting system to favor smaller parties. “This changes things dramatically,” Mark Wickham-Jones , professor of politics at Bristol University in western England. “With Brown gone it reduces a huge obstacle to a Liberal-Labour coalition.” The negotiations were triggered by the inconclusive May 6 election, the first since 1974 that failed to produce a majority. Labour lost control after 13 years, dropping 91 seats in the House of Commons to 258. The Conservatives won 306 districts, a net gain of 97 from the previous election. The Liberal Democrats lost five seats and now have 57 members. “I have no desire to stay in my position longer than is necessary,” Brown told reporters outside his Downing Street residence in London. He said formal talks with Nick Clegg ’s Liberal Democrats will now start. Brown, 59, will remain as prime minister until a new Labour leader is chosen, something he said would happen by September. Pound Weakens The pound pared gains after Brown’s announcement threatened to delay the formation of a new government that would focus on cutting the record budget deficit. Sterling slid to $1.4868 at 5:29 p.m. in London after rising as high as $1.5054. The Conservatives responded to Brown’s move by making what William Hague , the party’s foreign-affairs spokesman, an offer that goes “the extra mile.” “We will offer to the Liberal Democrats in a coalition government a referendum on the alternative-vote system,” he told reporters. Under such a system, voters number candidates in order of preference. Those choices are taken into account to ensure that the winner has the backing of at least half the electorate. Clegg said Conservative leader David Cameron was entitled to the first chance to form a government since he won the most votes and Parliament seats. Disagreements The parties disagreed during the campaign over Cameron’s proposals to cut spending this year and lower inheritance taxes and Clegg’s bid to eliminate income taxes on the lowest earners. In four negotiating sessions since the election, they said they agreed to focus on reducing the deficit. Shortly before Brown’s announcement, Liberal Democrat spokesman David Laws said his party needed more details from the Conservatives on their proposed alliance’s policies on a voting-system overhaul and taxation. “The Conservative rank and file will not accept voting reform and for the Liberal Democrats, this is the sine qua non,” said Bill Jones , a professor of politics at Liverpool Hope University. Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system gave the Liberal Democrats 9 percent of the seats in the House of Commons for 23 percent of the popular vote. The party favors proportional representation. Brown had offered Clegg a referendum on the electoral system. Even if they agree on other matters, Labour and the Liberal Democrats together wouldn’t have a majority, and would need to bring in two other smaller parties. To contact the reporter on this story: Thomas Penny in London at tpenny@bloomberg.net ; Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net .

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Conservatives, Liberal Democrats Focus on U.K. Deficit in Coalition Talks

May 10, 2010

By Robert Hutton and Kitty Donaldson May 10 (Bloomberg) — Conservative and Liberal Democrat spokesmen said they’re making progress on an agreement to forge a government after the U.K.’s inconclusive May 6 vote. “The negotiating teams are working really well together,” William Hague , the former Conservative leader, said after a 90- minute meeting today, the fourth with lawmakers from the third- biggest party. “Bear with us a little longer,” Nick Clegg , the Liberal Democrat leader, told reporters. Any potential agreement would focus on deficit cutting, spokesmen for the parties said yesterday, as they emphasized common ground in a bid to reassure investors. The jockeying threatened to roil markets as Europe grapples with a sovereign- debt crisis and Britain faces a record budget shortfall. “This was the worst possible time for this,” said Stuart Thomson , who helps manage the equivalent of about $100 billion at Ignis Asset Management in Glasgow. “We have a very febrile atmosphere over sovereign debt. Our view is that sterling is undervalued, but without a stable political situation and Conservative fiscal policy, it could go down further.” The pound added 1.3 percent to $1.4998 at 3:15 p.m. in London. The 10-year gilt yield rose 8 basis points to 3.9 percent. Sky News television reported this afternoon that an outline of a deal was in place. ‘Buoyant, Upbeat’ Liberal Democrat lawmaker Mike Hancock told reporters as he left a meeting with his colleagues that he hoped there would be a decision on a deal tonight. “The mood is very buoyant, upbeat,” Hancock said. “People have been critical of each other and have differing views, but nothing spectacular.” The negotiations were triggered by the first election since 1974 that failed to produce a majority. Gordon Brown , who remains prime minister and Labour leader, had his first post- election meeting with Clegg yesterday. “The markets accept that we have got a hung parliament and there has got to be some discussion,” Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling told the BBC’s Today radio program today. He said he hoped the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives can make a decision “by the end of the day” whether they “can do a deal or not,” although discussions that go into tomorrow are “not the end of the world.” Debt Outlook U.K. government debt will rise to 77 percent of gross domestic product this year and may approach 100 percent by 2014, Standard & Poor’s says. The rating company cut its outlook on the U.K.’s AAA grade from stable in May 2009, saying debt may rise to a level incompatible with its top assessment. The Conservatives won 306 districts in the vote, a net gain of 97 from the previous election in 2005. Labour had a net loss of 91 seats to end with 258. The Liberal Democrats lost five seats and now have 57 members of the 650-seat House of Commons. Clegg said Conservative leader David Cameron was entitled to the first chance to form a government since he won the most votes and Parliament seats. The parties disagreed during the campaign over Cameron’s proposals to cut spending this year and lower inheritance taxes and Clegg’s bid to eliminate income taxes on those with the lowest incomes. Economic stability and reducing a deficit forecast by the European Union at 12 percent of GDP this year would form the “central part” of an agreement, Hague told reporters yesterday. ‘Shift in Tone’ “The most likely outcome is a deal between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats,” said Tim Bale , author of “The Conservative Party From Thatcher to Cameron.” “There has been a shift in tone, emphasizing what they have in common compared to their differences. Brown will be gone by mid-week unless it all collapses.” The scope of a deal ranges from a coalition, with Liberal Democrats in the Cabinet and agreeing to support Cameron in Parliament, to a “confidence and supply” agreement. In that arrangement, Clegg promises not to oppose the Conservatives on budgets or any issue where defeat would force an election. Clegg signaled that the parties may overcome their differences on overhauling the voting system. During the campaign, Clegg said “electoral reform is a first step which any government of whatever composition will need to introduce.” Yesterday, he included “fundamental political reform” at the end of a five-point list of “big changes” that will guide his party. Smaller Parties Brown has offered Clegg a referendum on the electoral system. Even if they agree on other matters, Labour and the Liberal Democrats together wouldn’t have a majority, and would need to bring in two other smaller parties. And even if that could be achieved, Brown may not be able to deliver his own party. In his 2 1/2 years as Labour leader, Brown has struggled to unite it behind him, fending off at least three coups. Two Labour lawmakers, Kate Hoey and John Mann , have already called for Brown to step aside. “Gordon Brown seems the least well-placed leader” to lead a coalition, said Jane Green, a lecturer in politics at Manchester University. Cameron has his own problems with his party, having failed to deliver a Parliamentary majority. He’ll face lawmakers at a meeting in London today at 6 p.m. “I would rather be in a minority government,” said lawmaker Graham Brady , who suggested another election may be in the offing before a full term is completed. “Realistically, there’s not much more prospect of whatever arrangement is reached lasting for very long.” To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net ; Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net .

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Video: UBS’s Brittan Sees Conservative-Liberal Deal in U.K.

May 10, 2010

May 10 (Bloomberg) — Leon Brittan, chairman of UBS Investment Bank, talks with Bloomberg’s Rishaad Salamat about the prospects for an agreement between the U.K.’s Conservative party and the Liberal Democrats to form a government.

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Ann Pettifor: The Real Deal in London

May 8, 2010

Britain’s political elites are doing deals this weekend, trying to form a government. Gingerly making their way across the shifting tectonic plates of public opinion; wary of being tripped up again by voters. For, let’s face it, the British electorate are no fools. As the governor of the Bank of England apparently warned last week, they are mad as hell. Austerity measures will not be tolerated, and will keep any governing party out of power for a generation . So there is a lot to lose. Voters listened carefully last autumn as David Cameron, the leader of the Conservative Party and his Finance Minister, George Osborne turned a blind eye to the reckless behaviour of the City of London. They ignored the extent to which taxpayers had bailed out private bankers, and taken the full burden of their losses on to the public sector balance sheet. Instead Osborne implied that responsibility for economic failure lay with millions of public sector workers, and the essential services they provide. In a politically disastrous move, Osborne threatened to punish the innocents with a ‘ new Age of Austerity ‘ , while promising to give an inheritance tax break to the 3,000 richest families in the country. He vowed “to freeze the pay of millions of public sector workers, cut benefits enjoyed by the middle classes and cap civil service pensions at £50,000 a year.” As a result, and despite the fact that Conservatives were at that point 17 points ahead of Labour and headed for a landslide – their vote slumped. Canny British voters refused to behave like turkeys voting for Christmas, and steadily withdrew support. There then began a concerted effort to silence Osborne (it seems he was locked up in a cupboard for the duration of the election campaign). Nevertheless, the damage was done, and the Tories failed to muster a majority of seats in the House of Commons last Thursday . Labour, under the leadership of Gordon Brown and to the surprise of many, managed to staunch the political wounds inflicted earlier on his party by his predecessor, Tony Blair. 13.5 million had voted for Labour in 1997 – in good faith. By 2005 and during ‘the good times’ when Britain was growing at 3% per annum – Labour’s vote had plummeted to 9.6 million – which is why Blair had to go. He had lost the Labour Party 3.9 million voters. Then, just as Gordon Brown took over the premiership, ‘ the world economy fell off a cliff ‘. Economic failure, unemployment and the failure to rein in bankers cost Brown’s government about 900,000 votes last week – fully 3 million votes less than were lost under Tony Blair. In other words, Labour’s lost voters were lost long before 6th May, 2010. Sceptical of the Conservatives and fed up with Labour, voters turned their attention to the ‘new boy’ on the block – Nick Clegg, leader of the Liberal Democrats. Excited by the media spotlight, the inexperienced Clegg blundered, fell victim to hubris, and asked incredulously how Mr Brown could “squat” in No 10 even if Labour came third in the popular vote. In the event it was Mr Clegg’s Liberal Democrats that trailed in third place. As quickly as they had risen, his party’s hopes were dashed – thwarted by shrewd voters. Nevertheless, Cameron and Clegg have grabbed the post-election spotlight, and are doing deals behind closed doors to forge a coalition, and force out Brown. Many expect the negotiations to fail, for want of common ground – on for example, the cancellation of the Trident nuclear submarine, and electoral reform. So power-sharing is doomed to fail, if not this week, then by this autumn. In the meantime, the real deal-makers are to be found elsewhere. Across the Irish Sea . In Belfast, Northern Ireland. The fact is that none of the political parties can afford another election campaign for the next year or so, and the Lib Dems and Tories are too far apart for a sustainable power-sharing deal. Cameron knows this. So expect the Conservatives to put in calls to the 8 members of the Democratic Unionist Party , in the hope that their support will enable David Cameron to govern as a minority government. This way they would keep both Labour and the Liberal Democrats at bay. That is, if they are not dislodged by the tectonic plates of ‘austerity’ – that could keep Conservatives out of power for the next generation.

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David Gray: For Mother’s Day, Hope for Work-Life Balance and Workplace Flexibility

May 8, 2010

As we approach Mother’s Day, the biggest gift that many moms are looking for is a gift of time and balance. There is a mismatch between the structure of American work and the needs of most families. Fortunately, there may be increasing hope for parents and others struggling with work life balance. Poll after poll shows the desire for more workplace flexibility for American workers and families. The landscape might finally be turning towards constructive action in this space. On March 31, President Obama hosted the White House Forum on Workplace Flexibility. The President and the First Lady talked about their work-life balance challenges in a way that could resonate with the 85% of Americans who report that they struggle with work-life balance. More and more companies are turning to workplace flexibility policies to recruit and retain workers. Consequently, last spring, the Society for Human Resource Management announced a work-life balance policy platform, which highlighted workplace flexibility, and included recommendations to help businesses provide extended time off. At the White House Forum, Office of Personnel Management Chief John Berry announced plans to expand telework and efforts to make the federal government a more flexible employer. On April 22, the House Worker Protection Subcommittee held a hearing on the Work Life Balance Award Act of 2010, which would create and recognize incentives for businesses to support work-life balance, and has real potential for bipartisan support. Moreover, the development in Australia of new “right to request” legislation provides a possible model for the U.S. Employers who have told me over and over that if employees simply ask for flexibility and time off, they would grant the requests in most cases. Great Britain enacted a law in 2004 to give employees the right to “request” a flexible schedule. However, “right to request” legislation has gone nowhere in the U.S., in no small part because most proposals contain enforcement mechanisms that are unacceptable to business. The Australian model allows an employer to deny the request for legitimate business reasons and there is no review of the decision. With the enforcement provisions removed, the Australian model, or some version of it, provides a starting point for a model bipartisan conversation about increasing such workplace flexibility. Conversations between employers and employees about flexibility are going on in the private sector each day and efforts to enhance them, such as Australia’s model, are significant. Finally, the economic downturn has potential to highlight bipartisan work-life balance policies. An April 5 paper, co-authored by Kevin Hassett of the conservative American Enterprise Institute and Dean Baker of the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research, argues that the best way for America to reduce its near-double digit unemployment rate is to promote work-sharing. The idea is that rather than laying off workers, employers would be encouraged by federal policy to reduce the hours of workers. So more workers would stay attached to work, but work fewer hours. Rather than paying unemployment insurance to workers who have been laid off and have no workforce attachment, those same funds would help make up the salaries of the workers who have reduced hours. Work-sharing is an important work-life balance concept that allows people to work reduced hours and spend more time with family. Interesting, the depression era Fair Labor Standards Act and its 40 hour work week became law as a kind of work sharing concept to reduce unemployment. The economic crisis is allowing leaders on both sides of the aisle to come together to argue for the expansion of flexibility policies. The result of the White House Forum is new momentum on workplace flexibility. For the first time in many years, the environment is beginning to look more promising for policies that help mothers, and all Americans, find more work-life balance.

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Clegg’s Liberal Democrats Will Pursue Cameron Offer of Pact to Oust Brown

May 8, 2010

By Thomas Penny and Gonzalo Vina May 8 (Bloomberg) — Nick Clegg ’s Liberal Democrats agreed to continue talks with Conservative David Cameron on a proposed alliance to oust Gordon Brown , after the U.K. election failed to deliver a majority to any party. “We are continuing discussions with the Conservative Party as the party with the most seats and votes,” Liberal Democrat negotiator David Laws said after a party meeting in London today. “We want to complete this process as soon as possible, but people will recognize that it is also important to get these decisions right in the long-term national interest.” Clegg said yesterday Cameron should have the first crack at forming a government after the May 6 vote. The Conservatives proposed a panel to study the central Liberal Democrat demand of overhauling the electoral system. Labour leader Brown, who remains prime minister, offered Clegg an immediate referendum on voting reform. The pound and gilts fell yesterday on concern the political jockeying and subsequent recriminations would undermine efforts to reduce a record budget deficit. Sterling weakened 0.2 percent to $1.4804. Government bonds declined, pushing the 10-year gilt up by 3 basis points to 3.84 percent. Clegg said today the Liberal Democrats would put the emphasis in the negotiations on “four big priorities.” Those also include an end to income tax for 3.6 million low earners, a breakup of big banks and cutting school class sizes. ‘Artificial Timescales’ Laws declined to give a date for when talks might be concluded, saying “I am not going to set artificial timescales although we understand the pressures that there are.” Negotiations began late yesterday after the first election since 1974 to produce a so-called hung Parliament. Clegg and Cameron spoke by telephone before negotiations between teams from both sides, including the Liberal Democrats’ Treasury spokesman, Vince Cable , and former Conservative leader William Hague . The negotiators will meet again at the Cabinet Office in London at 11 a.m. tomorrow, both parties said. A Conservative spokesman said Cameron will meet with the party’s lawmakers at 6 p.m. on May 10. No agreement with the Liberal Democrats is expected over the weekend, he said. ‘Sticking Point’ “The big sticking point is what’s in it for the Liberal Democrats,” said Andrew Russell , a politics lecturer at Manchester University and the author of “Neither Left Nor Right?”, a study of the Liberal Democrats. A deal with the Conservatives “is not inconceivable. The chances are it wouldn’t work.” “We should concentrate on the fact that the voters are getting very short-changed by the absurdities of the voting system,” former Liberal Democrat leader Charles Kennedy told reporters. As the Liberal Democrats met, a crowd of protesters estimated by police at 2,000-strong gathered outside the building, chanting “Fair Votes Now” and “Don’t Sell Out.” “Reforming politics is one of the reasons I came into politics,” Clegg told the crowd. “It is in the national interest for us to use this opportunity to usher in a new politics.” While the Liberal Democrats took 23 percent of the popular vote on May 6, their 57 seats are 9 percent of the total in the House of Commons. ‘Very Strange’ Conservative defense spokesman Liam Fox , though, told the BBC that “it would seem to me very strange” if the government “was held to ransom over an issue that the majority of voters did not seem to regard as their priority.” Brown, 59, who left London for Scotland today, would need an unprecedented four-way alliance including Scottish and Welsh nationalists to stay in power. A failure by Brown and Cameron to come to terms with potential allies would probably result in Cameron seeking to establish a minority government. One re-elected Labour lawmaker, John Mann , called on Brown today to step down. Brown’s “continuation as the party’s leader rules out the credibility of a Lib-Lab pact,” Mann said in an e-mailed statement. The Conservatives won 306 districts in the May 6 vote, a net gain of 97 from the previous election in 2005. Labour had a net loss of 91 seats to end with 258. The Liberal Democrats lost five seats and now have 57 members of the 650-seat House of Commons. Brown, 59, remains as prime minister until he advises Queen Elizabeth II , as head of state, that he is resigning. As Britain has no written constitution, the 84-year-old monarch is guided by conventions built up over hundreds of years. The main requirement for the queen is to find a political leader who can command the confidence of the House of Commons . To contact the reporters on this story: Thomas Penny in London at tpenny@bloomberg.net ; Gonzalo Vina in London at gvina@bloomberg.net .

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Clegg’s Liberal Democrats Debate Cameron Offer of Alliance to Eject Brown

May 8, 2010

By Robert Hutton and Kitty Donaldson May 8 (Bloomberg) — Nick Clegg ’s Liberal Democrats meet today to consider Conservative David Cameron ’s bid for an alliance to oust Prime Minister Gordon Brown after the U.K. election failed to deliver a majority to any party. While Brown said he was willing to discuss a coalition with any party, Clegg said Cameron should have the first crack at forming a government because he won the most seats and had the most popular support in the May 6 vote. Cameron proposed a panel to study the central Liberal Democrat demand of overhauling the electoral system. Brown offered an immediate referendum. “The big sticking point is what’s in it for the Liberal Democrats,” said Andrew Russell , a politics lecturer at Manchester University and the author of “Neither Left Nor Right?”, a study of the Liberal Democrats. A deal “is not inconceivable. The chances are it wouldn’t work.” The pound and gilts fell on concern the political jockeying and subsequent recriminations would undermine efforts to reduce a record budget deficit. Sterling weakened 0.2 percent yesterday to $1.4804. Government bonds declined, pushing the 10-year gilt up by 3 basis points to 3.84 percent. Negotiations began late yesterday after the first election since 1974 that yielded a so-called hung Parliament. Clegg and Cameron spoke by telephone and leaders of Brown’s Labour Party, which has governed since 1997, made public appeals to Liberal Democrats. Brown’s Bid Brown would need an unprecedented four-way alliance including Scottish and Welsh nationalists to stay in power. A failure by Brown and Cameron to come to terms with potential allies would probably result in Cameron seeking to establish a minority government. The Conservatives won 306 districts, a net gain of 97 from the previous election in 2005. Labour had a net loss of 91 seats to end with 258. The Liberal Democrats lost five seats and now have 57 members of the 650-seat House of Commons. “There is a case for going further than an arrangement that simply keeps a minority Conservative government in office,” Cameron said in London before holding a first round of talks with Clegg. “I want us to work together in tackling our country’s problems.” Liberal Democrat energy spokesman Simon Hughes told BBC television this morning that a first round of discussions between negotiating teams from the two parties last night was “a process meeting rather than a substance meeting.” ‘Getting Things Right’ “Everybody understands there needs to be a balance between speed and getting things right,” Hughes said. “We can’t and won’t give a running commentary.” He highlighted the economy as a central area of the discussions, saying the new government would need to put “processes in place to deal with the deficit urgently.” Brown, 59, remains as prime minister until he advises Queen Elizabeth II , as head of state, that he is resigning. As Britain has no written constitution, the 84-year-old monarch is guided by conventions built up over hundreds of years. The main requirement for the queen is to find a political leader who can command the confidence of the House of Commons . Speaking yesterday in front of the prime minister’s residence at 10 Downing Street, Brown proposed a referendum on introducing proportional representation in voting, something that would help the Liberal Democrats gain more seats in Parliament. He also pointed out that they share Labour’s opposition to cutting spending this year, in contrast to Cameron. Conservative Offer For his part, Cameron offered to establish a committee to discuss the voting system and insisted he would want to cut spending immediately. The 43-year-old Conservative, who led his party to its biggest gain in seats since 1931, also listed all the areas where he wasn’t prepared to compromise. These include his party’s opposition to looser immigration controls and scrapping the submarine-based Trident nuclear deterrent. Both are favored by the Liberal Democrats. Clegg, 43, can’t agree to a deal on his own. Party rules require the assent of Liberal Democrat lawmakers and members. The party’s Parliamentary committee meets at midday in London. “It will be difficult for the Conservatives and the Lib Dems to come to any formal agreement,” said Stephen Driver , who teaches politics at Roehampton University in London. “What Clegg would get out of any Conservative deal would be very small indeed.” To contact the reporters on this story: Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonadlson@bloomberg.net ; Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net .

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European Stocks Post Biggest Weekly Decline in 18 Months on Debt Concerns

May 8, 2010

By Sarah Jones May 8 (Bloomberg) — European stocks posted the biggest drop in 18 months as concern grew that the region’s leaders will be unable to contain the spiraling government debt crisis. A measure of bank stocks slumped the most since March last year, led by British lenders as the U.K. election failed to produce a clear winner. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, which reported a first-quarter loss, plummeted 16 percent. Greece’s EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA and Alpha Bank SA retreated more than 20 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 8.8 percent to 237.18 this past week, the biggest decline since November 2008. The measure erased its gain for the year as all 19 industry groups fell. The gauge has retreated 13 percent from this year’s high on April 15 amid concern that a 110 billion-euro ($140 billion) rescue package for Greece won’t be enough to keep Europe’s most indebted nations from defaulting. “Investors in global equity markets received a timely reminder this week that share prices are not always a one-way bet,” said Jeremy Batstone-Carr , London-based head of research at Charles Stanley & Co. “The multi-headed hydra that the sovereign debt crisis has become has finally broken through into risk assets, driving world stock markets sharply lower.” European Central Bank council member Axel Weber this week warned there was a threat of “grave contagion effects” from the Greek fiscal crisis. Moody’s Investors Service said banks in Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland and the U.K. could be at risk as the threat of contagion grows. The rating company placed Portugal’s Aa2 ratings on review for possible downgrade. Resisted New Steps ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet resisted taking any new steps to stem contagion, saying the bank hasn’t discussed the option of buying government bonds and the onus is on politicians to cut budget deficits. A slump in U.S. stocks on May 6 briefly erased more than $1 trillion in market value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled almost 1,000 points, a 9.2 percent plunge, which was its biggest intraday percentage loss since 1987. National benchmark indexes fell in all 18 western European markets, led by Spain’s IBEX 35, which plunged 14 percent. Greece’s ASE Index tumbled 13 percent as protests against government austerity measures left three people dead in Athens. Portugal’s PSI-20 slid 11 percent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 sank 7.8 percent as Conservative challenger David Cameron appealed to the Liberal Democrats for an alliance to oust Prime Minister Gordon Brown after the U.K. election failed to deliver a majority to any party. RBS Retreats RBS , the U.K.’s biggest government-owned bank, dropped 16 percent. The lender reported the only first-quarter loss among British rivals as profit at its investment bank plunged. Shares of Barclays Plc lost 16 percent while Lloyds Banking Group Plc sank 19 percent. Eurobank, Greece’s second-biggest lender, dropped 22 percent and Alpha Bank declined 20 percent. In Portugal, Banco Espirito Santo SA, the country’s biggest bank by market value, tumbled 16 percent, while in Spain, Banco Popular Espanol SA sank 19 percent. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, fell 8 percent after Australia announced plans to impose the world’s heaviest tax regime on mining companies. Rio Tinto Group , the third-biggest mining company, lost 7.4 percent. Shares of British Airways Plc declined 16 percent as renewed ash plumes from Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull volcano closed airports in Glasgow, Edinburgh, Dublin and Belfast. The cloud of debris has forced the cancellation of more than 100,000 flights across Europe since it erupted on April 14. Ryanair Holdings Plc declined 9.6 percent and Air France- KLM Group, Europe’s largest airline, retreated 16 percent. France’s Alcatel-Lucent SA tumbled 18 percent after the country’s largest telecommunications equipment producer reported a first-quarter net loss that more than doubled what analysts had estimated. To contact the reporter on this story: Sarah Jones in London at sjones35@bloomberg.net .

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Clegg’s Liberal Democrats to Debate Cameron Bid for Alliance to Oust Brown

May 7, 2010

By Robert Hutton and Kitty Donaldson May 8 (Bloomberg) — Nick Clegg ’s Liberal Democrats meet today to consider Conservative David Cameron ’s bid for an alliance to oust Prime Minister Gordon Brown after the U.K. election failed to deliver a majority to any party. While Brown said he was willing to discuss a coalition with any party, Clegg said Cameron should have the first crack at forming a government because he won the most seats and had the most popular support in the May 6 vote. Cameron proposed a panel to study the central Liberal Democrat demand of overhauling the electoral system. Brown offered an immediate referendum. “The big sticking point is what’s in it for the Liberal Democrats,” said Andrew Russell , a politics lecturer at Manchester University and the author of “Neither Left Nor Right?”, a study of the Liberal Democrats. A deal “is not inconceivable. The chances are it wouldn’t work.” The pound and gilts fell on concern the political jockeying and subsequent recriminations would undermine efforts to reduce a record budget deficit. Sterling weakened 0.3 percent to $1.4792 at 7 p.m. in London. Government bonds declined, pushing the 10-year gilt up by 3 basis points to 3.84 percent. Negotiations began late yesterday after the first election since 1974 that yielded a so-called hung Parliament. Clegg and Cameron spoke by telephone and leaders of Brown’s Labour Party, which has governed since 1997, made public appeals to Liberal Democrats. Brown’s Bid Brown would need an unprecedented four-way alliance including Scottish and Welsh nationalists to stay in power. A failure by Brown and Cameron to come to terms with potential allies would probably result in Cameron seeking to establish a minority government. The Conservatives won 306 districts, a net gain of 97 from the previous election in 2005. Labour had a net loss of 91 seats to end with 258. The Liberal Democrats lost five seats and now have 57 members of the 650-seat House of Commons. “There is a case for going further than an arrangement that simply keeps a minority Conservative government in office,” Cameron said in London before holding a first round of talks with Clegg. “I want us to work together in tackling our country’s problems.” “Nick Clegg and David Cameron had a short telephone discussion this afternoon during which they agreed that they should explore further proposals for a program of economic and political reform,” the Liberal Democrats said in an e-mailed statement, without elaborating. Queen’s Role Brown, 59, remains as prime minister until he advises Queen Elizabeth II , as head of state, that he is resigning. As Britain has no written constitution, the 84-year-old monarch is guided by conventions built up over hundreds of years. The main requirement for the queen is to find a political leader who can command the confidence of the House of Commons . Speaking yesterday in front of the prime minister’s residence at 10 Downing Street, Brown proposed a referendum on introducing proportional representation in voting, something that would help the Liberal Democrats gain more seats in Parliament. He also pointed out that they share Labour’s opposition to cutting spending this year, in contrast to Cameron. For his part, Cameron offered to establish a committee to discuss the voting system and insisted he would want to cut spending immediately. The 43-year-old Conservative, who led his party to its biggest gain in seats since 1931, also listed all the areas where he wasn’t prepared to compromise. Policy Differences These include his party’s opposition to looser immigration controls and scrapping the submarine-based Trident nuclear deterrent. Both are favored by the Liberal Democrats. Clegg, 43, can’t agree to a deal on his own. Party rules require the assent of Liberal Democrat lawmakers and members. The party’s Parliamentary committee meets at midday in London. “It will be difficult for the Conservatives and the Lib Dems to come to any formal agreement,” said Stephen Driver , who teaches politics at Roehampton University in London. “What Clegg would get out of any Conservative deal would be very small indeed.” To contact the reporters on this story: Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonadlson@bloomberg.net ; Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net .

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Cameron Appeals for Coalition With U.K.’s Liberal Democrats to Oust Brown

May 7, 2010

By Kitty Donaldson and Robert Hutton May 7 (Bloomberg) — Conservative challenger David Cameron appealed to the Liberal Democrats to form an alliance to oust Prime Minister Gordon Brown after the U.K. general election failed to deliver a majority to any party. While Brown said he was willing to discuss a coalition with any party, Nick Clegg , the Liberal Democrat leader, said Cameron should have the first crack at forming a government because he won the most seats and had the most popular support.     “There is a case for going further than an arrangement that simply keeps a minority Conservative government in office,” Cameron said in London today. “I want us to work together in tackling our country’s problems.” Cameron, while gaining more seats than any Conservative leader in an election since 1931, fell short of his target. Clegg, second in the polls for much of the campaign, fell to third and lost seats. Brown led his party to its worst result since 1983. With 638 of 650 results declared, Cameron’s Conservatives had 301 seats to 255 for Labour and 55 for Clegg. “Imagine a game of poker in which everyone has been dealt a rather poor hand,” said Eric Shaw, lecturer in politics at Stirling University in Scotland. “There is a possibility that the player with the best hand wins, but there is a second possibility that the player who wins is the one who holds their nerve.” Pound, Gilts The pound and gilts fell on concern the political jockeying and subsequent recriminations would deflect efforts from reducing a record budget deficit. Sterling weakened 0.6 percent to $1.4641 at 2:50 p.m. in London. Government bonds declined, pushing the 10-year gilt up by 7 basis points to 3.87 percent. “All the talk today has been about constitutional issues and that’s not what the British government has got to deal with,” said Stephen Driver , who teaches politics at London’s Roehampton University. “The British government has got to deal with the deficit.” Brown remains as prime minister until he advises Queen Elizabeth II , as head of state, that he is resigning. As Britain has no written constitution, the 84-year-old monarch is guided by conventions built up over hundreds of years. The main requirement for the queen is to find a political leader who can command the confidence of the House of Commons. ‘Premature Resignation’ The Conservatives “will try to panic Gordon Brown in to a premature resignation,” said Robert Hazell , the director of the Constitution Unit at University College London. “We are so used to an overall victory it is regarded as a bit poor form for a prime minister to remain in office if he appears to have lost.” Whether an opposition can force Brown from office depends on its “chutzpah,” Hazell said. “Quite a lot does depend on the media and public perception.” Only one election since the queen took the throne in 1952 has failed to produce a majority. That was in February 1974, when Conservative Prime Minister Edward Heath called a snap election after a strike by coal miners seeking higher pay led to power shortages, and the government put the country on a three- day working week. Even though the Conservatives won the largest share of the vote, Harold Wilson ’s Labour Party took most seats. Heath attempted to stay in power and held unsuccessful talks on forming a coalition with the Liberal Party. He resigned four days after the vote, allowing Wilson to form a minority government that lasted until new elections in October. New Rules As the polls tightened this year, Gus O’Donnell , who as cabinet secretary is head of the Civil Service, accelerated plans to codify the conventions that surround elections and avert the uncertainty that would follow a similar result this time. “The key thing is Brown remains in office as prime minister until he chooses to resign,” said Hazell. “He is under a duty to remain in office until it is clear someone will command the support of the new House of Commons.” The queen “must not be left guessing who can command support in Parliament,” Hazell said. That means it must be clear that Cameron, Brown or Clegg has enough support from other parties to pass legislation or avoid defeat in a confidence vote. To contact the reporters on this story: Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonadlson@bloomberg.net ; Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net

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Cameron Wins Most Seats as Brown Signals Fight to Stay U.K. Prime Minister

May 7, 2010

By Thomas Penny and Gonzalo Vina May 7 (Bloomberg) — Conservative challenger David Cameron won the most seats in the British election, while falling short of a majority guaranteeing the ouster of Prime Minister Gordon Brown . Gilts and the pound fell on the indecisive result. In the first election since 1974 that failed to produce a majority, Nick Clegg , leader of the No. 3 party, said by winning a plurality in Parliament and the biggest share of the vote Cameron should have the first crack at forming a government. The rules grant Brown the first such opportunity. “It’s now for the Conservative party to prove that it is capable of seeking to govern in the national interest,” Clegg told reporters today in London. “I’ve also said that whichever party gets the most votes and the most seats, if not an absolute majority has the first right to seek to govern, either on its own or reaching out to other parties, and I stick to that view.” Cameron’s Conservatives took 291 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons with 620 results declared, making it impossible for them to gain outright control. Labour had 251 and Clegg’s Liberal Democrats 51. The Conservatives gained a net 96 seats and Labour lost 88. The pound weakened 1.5 percent to $1.4618, a 13-month low, at 11:15 a.m. in London. Gilt futures declined 1.1 percent. ‘Messier’ “The constitutional position is likely to be a lot messier than the markets have been discounting,” said Marc Ostwald , an analyst at the bond brokerage Monument Securites in London. “There has been little or nothing in the way of a risk premium priced into U.K. assets.” Cameron said Labour had lost its “mandate to govern.” He plans to make a statement at 2:30 p.m. on how he’ll seek to form a “strong and stable” government. Brown said he hoped to “play my part” in the next government. The result leaves the country and financial markets “in almost the worst position anyone can imagine,” said Tim Bale , a professor of politics at the University of Sussex. Neither Cameron nor a Brown-Clegg alliance would have a majority. Any deal may depend on nationalists in Scotland and Wales, said John Curtice , professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow. The only way to break the stalemate would be for Cameron to offer Clegg the promise to implement electoral reform, one of the Liberal Democrats’ top priorities. Clegg has called for proportional representation. ‘Easier’ “It will be easier for Labour to do a deal with the nationalists than it will for the Tories,” Curtice said. “Unless Cameron is prepared to do a deal on proportional representation, his path to Downing Street is blocked.” Business Secretary Peter Mandelson signaled the prospect of forging a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, saying that Brown retained the first shot at forming a government if the opposition failed to gain a majority. “The rules are, if it’s a hung parliament, it’s not the party with the largest number of seats that has the first go, it’s the sitting government,” he said. Brown appealed to the Liberal Democrats, in his first remarks after his re-election as a member of Parliament. In his Kirkcaldy district in Scotland, he said a coalition would “implement our commitments to far-reaching political reform, for which there is a growing consensus.” ‘Duty’ “My duty to the country coming out of this election is to play my part in Britain having a strong, stable and principled government,” Brown said. The Conservatives said Brown lost the right to lead and that they would speak to other parties to assemble a government. “It is already clear that the Labour government has lost its mandate to govern our country,” Cameron said in Oxfordshire after he was re-elected to Parliament. “It looks as if the Conservative Party is on target to win more seats at this election than we’ve won at any election for perhaps 80 years.” After a general election, the appointment of a prime minister is the prerogative of Queen Elizabeth II , as head of state. As Britain has no written constitution, the 84-year-old monarch is guided by conventions built up over hundreds of years. The main requirement for the queen is to find a political leader who can command the confidence of the House of Commons. “The key thing is Brown remains in office as prime minister until he chooses to resign,” said Robert Hazell , the director of the Constitution Unit at University College London. “He is under a duty to remain in office until it is clear someone will command the support of the new House of Commons.” The queen “must not be left guessing who can command support in Parliament,” Hazell said. To contact the reporters on this story: Gonzalo Vina in London at gvina@bloomberg.net ; Thomas Penny in London at tpenny@bloomberg.net

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Cameron Set to Oust Brown as Conservatives Win Most U.K. Seats, Poll Shows

May 6, 2010

By Kitty Donaldson and Robert Hutton May 6 (Bloomberg) — Conservative challenger David Cameron was set to end 13 years of Labour rule as the national exit poll projected his party winning more seats in Parliament than Prime Minister Gordon Brown . Cameron’s Conservatives were projected to have won 307 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons to Labour’s 255 and 59 for Nick Clegg ’s Liberal Democrats, the poll showed. It would be the first election since 1974 when no party gained a majority. Cameron’s margin of victory was probably enough for him to form a government and force Brown to resign. Passing his program of immediate spending cuts to tackle a record budget deficit and folding the U.K. financial regulator into the Bank of England would still require the support of other parties. “If you’re a few short, you can still govern as a minority,” said Philip Norton , professor of government at Hull University. “You could probably survive quite a while as a government without doing any deals.” The pound rose against the dollar after the exit poll was published at 10 p.m. when the voting ended. Sterling strengthened to $1.4864 at 10:04 p.m. in London, from $1.4833. It was at 85.06 pence per euro, from 85.09 pence. To contact the reporters on this story: Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonadlson@bloomberg.net . Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net .

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Britain Votes as Polls Suggest First Minority Government Since 1974 Likely

May 5, 2010

By Robert Hutton May 6 (Bloomberg) — Britain votes today in an election that polls show may produce no parliamentary majority for the first time since 1974, leaving the fate of Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Conservative David Cameron with the Liberal Democrats. Four polls released last night showed Cameron’s Conservatives winning the popular vote and the most seats, while short of a majority. The outcome will turn on the nearly two in five voters who polls showed were undecided in the final days and about 150 swing districts out of a total 650. The gap in support between Cameron and Brown in the latest polls — about 8 percentage points — is little changed from April 6, the day the premier called the election. Backing for Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg surged after the first televised debate, upending the race. “People who know anything about campaigns have always been doubtful about whether individual events mattered very much,” said Philip Cowley , professor of politics at Nottingham University. “But the TV debates made a difference.” Concerns by economists that a hung Parliament may roil markets because it would be too weak to fix Britain’s finances have receded this week. The pound has strengthened against its most-active counterparts and gilts are rebounding as traders bet that whichever party takes power will deliver a plan to reduce the deficit. Budget Cuts     With the economy recovering from its longest recession on record, Brown said Cameron’s call for budget cuts this year risked renewed contraction. They also differed on regulating the financial industry, with Cameron expressing a willingness to tax banks unilaterally and Brown saying a levy had to be global. At the same time, Clegg’s emergence and his challenge to Cameron and Brown — he said in the first of three debates that they “sound exactly the same” — deflected their focus on cutting Britain’s record budget deficit as they grappled with his surge. The Institute for Fiscal Studies said April 27 that Labour had specified just 13 percent of the cuts necessary to reduce the deficit, the Conservatives 18 percent and the Liberal Democrats 26 percent. “It would have been a very brave politician who came out and told the voters the straight truth,” said Steven Fielding , director of the Center for British Politics at Nottingham University. “So they didn’t.” Polling stations open at 7 a.m. in 649 out of the 650 districts across the country. The vote in a Yorkshire seat held by the Conservatives has been delayed until May 27 because of the death of a candidate. Exit Polls When voting ends at 10 p.m., exit polls will give the first indications of the outcome. The full result won’t be known before tomorrow afternoon. The Conservatives had 35 percent support in a YouGov Plc poll for The Sun newspaper, unchanged from the previous day. Labour had 28 percent, down 2 percentage points, and the Liberal Democrats had 28 percent, up 4 points. YouGov questioned 6,483 people May 4 and yesterday. No margin of error was provided. That voting pattern would yield 278 seats for Cameron’s party in the House of Commons, 261 for Labour and 82 for the Liberal Democrats, according to the forecasting formula used by the British Broadcasting Corp . Nine-Point Lead A Populus survey for the Times of London put Cameron’s lead over Brown at 37 percent to 28 percent, with the Liberal Democrats at 27 percent. That would give the Conservatives 295 seats, Labour 249 and the Liberal Democrats 78 seats.      An ICM poll for the Guardian showed 36 percent of respondents backing the Conservatives, with Labour at 28 percent and Clegg’s party at 26 percent, giving the Conservatives a lead in seats of 283 to 253. A ComRes Ltd. Poll found 37 percent backing Cameron’s party, 28 percent supporting Brown’s and 28 percent for Clegg’s. That would give the Conservatives 299 seats and Labour 233. “It’s been very exciting for those involved, but the polls seem to be returning to where they were at the start,” Fielding said. Labour has governed Britain since 1997, when Tony Blair unseated John Major , ending the Conservatives’ 18-year run that began with Margaret Thatcher ’s election. Brown, Blair’s finance minister, replaced his boss in June 2007. If the election produces no clear winner, parties will begin negotiating tomorrow to see who can form a government. Time for Talks Depending on how close the result is, this process could take more than a week. Parliament isn’t due to sit until May 18, to give time for negotiations. Cameron, 43, warned against a hung Parliament, saying a vote for the Liberal Democrats would allow Brown to retain power. Some Labour ministers, including Business Secretary Peter Mandelson , have not ruled out a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. Clegg, 43, said it would be “preposterous” for Brown, 59, to stay in office if Labour finishes third in the popular vote. That scenario is made possible by the vagaries of the British electoral system. The uneven distribution of party support across the country means the Conservatives need at least a 10 percentage-point lead over Labour in the popular vote to gain a majority of seats in this election, according to Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of Plymouth University’s Elections Unit. Brown remains prime minister until it is clear he can’t form a government, at which point he would submit his resignation to Queen Elizabeth II and advise her on whom she should summon to try to form one, likely in that situation to be Cameron. To contact the reporters on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net .

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Brown Taps Thatcher’s Legacy of `Poll Tax,’ Asset Sales to Counter Cameron

May 4, 2010

By Robert Hutton May 4 (Bloomberg) — British Prime Minister Gordon Brown wants voters to think about one politician in the election in two days, and it’s not him. Twenty years after she left office, it’s Margaret Thatcher who features more than anyone else in Labour advertising. In swing districts, Brown invokes her spending cuts to remind voters why they turned against the Conservatives in the 1990s. Labour’s effort to tie Conservative leader David Cameron to Thatcher’s legacy may help explain why he has been unable to widen his lead over Brown, who polls show may win Labour’s smallest share of the vote since 1983 in the May 6 election. The result may be a hung Parliament, where no party wins a majority, unsettling investors concerned that such a government may be too weak to cut a record budget deficit . “Labour is banging the drum that the Conservatives haven’t changed,” said Philip Norton , author of “The Conservative Party” and professor of politics at Hull University. “Thatcher was a divisive figure.” A ComRes Ltd. poll for ITV News and the Independent newspaper last night showed Conservative support at 37 percent, Labour at 29 percent, and the Liberal Democrats at 26 percent. That would give the Conservatives 294 seats, 32 short of a majority in the House of Commons , Labour 251 seats and the Liberal Democrats 74, ComRes said. The polling company telephoned 1,024 voters on May 1 and 2. Seven-Point Lead A YouGov Plc poll for The Sun newspaper gave the Conservatives 35 percent support, with Labour and the Liberal Democrats both at 28 percent. That gives the Conservatives 277 seats, 15 more than Labour, according to the BBC’s seat calculator . YouGov questioned 1,455 people May 2 and yesterday. No margins of error were given for the polls. A Crosby/Textor poll of swing districts for the Daily Telegraph suggested that the Conservatives might win 103 seats from Labour, though none from the Liberal Democrats. That’s short of the 117 districts they need to gain from other parties to ensure a majority. Cameron’s challenge is greatest in the north of England and Scotland where Thatcher’s policies of public-sector privatizations and reducing the power of unions hit hardest. In Scotland, the Conservatives, also known as the Tories, won only one out of 59 Parliamentary seats in 2005. Labour took 40, and the Liberal Democrats 11. “For me as a business owner, the Tories’ policies look slightly better, but I just have a mental hang-up about voting for them,” said Nik Wilson, 36, who runs a florist store in Edinburgh with his wife and voted Scottish National Party in the last election. “People just forget how things were.” ‘Remember the Tories’ Labour’s first television ad in Scotland was titled “Remember the Tories” and featured Thatcher’s image three times. In another Labour spot, starring the comedian Eddie Izzard , she’s the only politician mentioned. It is not just in the north of the country where Labour, which has been in power for 13 years, sees Thatcher as a handicap for the opposition. Leaflets sent out by the party in London attack Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg for having made positive comments about Thatcher, 84, now known as Baroness Thatcher , who lives in the capital. “The Tories haven’t changed,” says a Labour television ad that aired in Scotland. “They closed our mines, closed our steelworks and closed our factories.” ‘Big Society’ Cameron has spent the past 4 1/2 years since he became leader of his party trying to counter that, pledging to protect spending on the National Health Service, promote female, gay and ethnic-minority candidates, and repudiating Thatcher’s claim that “there is no such thing as society.” The central plank of his campaign is something he calls “The Big Society.” “To have spent any part of your adult life under Thatcher, you’d have to be 40 years old,” said David McLetchie , business manager for the Conservatives in the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh. “But she’s still conjured up as a demon figure. She ended up as a victim of her own rhetoric.” Independent until it joined England to form the United Kingdom in 1707, Scotland still has its own legal system and prints its own version of the national currency, the pound. Like parts of northern England where the Conservatives also struggle, Scotland’s mining and industrial areas were devastated by Thatcher’s policies of selling state-run companies and breaking the grip of unions. Poll Tax Scotland is also where the program that brought her down, called by its critics the “poll tax,” was tested in 1989. The policy of replacing property taxes with a per-person charge hurt the poorest and caused riots when it was brought to England a year later, leading the Conservatives to oust Thatcher and repeal the levy. Scotland, Brown’s home, has voted Labour since 1945. Still, the Conservative vote fell to 16 percent in 2005 from 31 percent in 1979, when Thatcher was first elected. A Progressive Scottish Opinion survey last week put Labour at 41 percent, the Scottish National Party at 22 percent, the Liberal Democrats at 21 percent and the Conservatives at 12 percent. The company surveyed 1,024 Scottish adults between April 20 and 26. Cameron is campaigning in 11 Scottish districts this year, including Edinburgh South and the seat of Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling , Edinburgh South West. “There’s no sign of a Cameron bounce,” Labour’s Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy told reporters travelling with Brown to the central Scottish city of Stirling on April 27. “It’s in the bloodstream after what happened here last time. Most people here don’t think the Tory party’s changed.” While Cameron has made some progress in changing this view, the Conservatives still have an uphill climb in Scotland, said Nicola McEwen , co-director of the Institute of Governance at Edinburgh University. “Cameron’s no Thatcher, and they’re not hated up here in the way they used to be,” said McEwen. “In Scotland, a lot of people who by any objective measure are middle class will continue to identify themselves as working class. Those things run deep. The Conservatives don’t pick up those votes.” To contact the reporters on this story: Robert Hutton in Edinburgh, Scotland at rhutton1@bloomberg.net .

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U.K. Polls Point to Hung Parliament With Five Days Until General Election

May 1, 2010

By Gonzalo Vina May 2 (Bloomberg) — Conservative leader David Cameron maintained a lead over Gordon Brown’s Labour Party in opinion polls today that suggested no party will win an outright majority in the U.K. general election to be held in five days. Three polls published today by YouGov Plc, ComRes Ltd and ICM Ltd indicate Cameron would fall short of an overall majority in the House of Commons. A poll of marginal seats by ICM Ltd in the News of the World suggested Cameron could scrape a majority of four with the support of Unionist parties in Northern Ireland, leaving him free to govern without relying on Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg after the May 6 election. “If the polls stay as they are, Mr. Cameron, with or without the help of Mr. Clegg, will walk into Downing Street within less than a week,” Business Secretary Peter Mandelson , a key Labour adviser, said in a statement yesterday intended to motivate party activists in the final stage of the race. Brown’s campaign to get Labour re-elected for a fourth successive term suffered blows last week after polls showed he was beaten in the final televised campaign debate and he was forced to apologize for calling a supporter “bigoted.” He lost the backing of three publications in two days, including the Guardian which had backed his party in every vote since 1983. The YouGov poll for the Sunday Times newspaper today showed support at 35 percent for the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats at 28 percent and Labour at 27 percent. That suggests Cameron would win 285 seats in Parliament, Brown 243 and Clegg 90 seats, YouGov said. The pollster interviewed 1,483 voters online on April 30-May 1. It gave no margin of error. No Majority A total of 326 seats is needed for a majority. An ICM Ltd poll for the Sunday Telegraph said the Conservative Party’s support increased by three points since April 27 to 36 percent, Labour increased one point to 29 percent while the Liberal Democrats dropped three points to 27 percent, ICM Ltd. ComRes Ltd for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday said support for Cameron had increased by two points to 38 percent, while support for Labour slipped one point to 28 percent and by the same amount for the Liberal Democrats to 25 percent. ComRes interviewed 1,019 adults on April 30 and May 1. A separate survey of marginal electoral seats by ICM Ltd for the News of the World newspaper said Cameron will scrape a four seat majority in the House of Commons with the support of the unionist parties of Northern Ireland. The pollster interviewed 1,001 adults in 96 seats where Labour has a majority of between four and 10 percentage points over the Conservatives on April 28-29. Hung Parliament The prospect of a hung parliament, the first since 1974, may unsettle investors concerned that a government would be too weak to fix Britain’s record budget deficit. The pound has fallen about 5 percent against the dollar so far this year as the opinion polls pointed increasingly to a political stalemate. In a letter published today, business leaders threw their support behind Cameron, saying a coalition between Brown and Clegg would be “totally disastrous” for companies. It’s the third such letter from company bossed endorsing Conservative policies. Directors of 110 start-ups including Omnifone, Ariadne Capital and Telecity Group Plc said Brown had increased red tape and taxes on companies and that Clegg’s plans to increase capital gains tax would hurt investment. Cameron’s Conservatives are the only party that would “nurture and encourage business,” the leaders said in a letter released to the media today. ‘Perfect Storm’ “The prospect of a Lib-Lab coalition would be a perfect storm for business,” Rob Lewis, executive chairman of Omnifone said in an interview. “A hybrid of their policies would create a very rough ride for British entrepreneurs. It’s very concerning.” The past week was one Brown would prefer to forget. On the eve of the April 29 debate, he was heard calling a Labour voter a “bigoted woman” after an encounter in the northern English town of Rochdale and later apologized to her and to his supporters. “I have personally paid this heavy price for a mistake that I made,” Brown told the Daily Telegraph in an interview published yesterday. “Sometimes you say things in the heat of the moment, sometimes you pay a very heavy price for those things.” The Guardian The Guardian, which called for Brown to step down in June last year when he faced a cabinet rebellion, yesterday endorsed the Liberal Democrats. It’s the first switch from Labour since the party led by Michael Foot campaigned for unilateral nuclear disarmament, nationalization of industries and withdrawal from the European Common Market, a precursor to the European Union. “Invited to embrace five more years of a Labour government, and of Gordon Brown as prime minister, it is hard to feel enthusiasm,” the Guardian said in an editorial. “The Liberal Democrats have for some time most closely matched our own priorities and instincts.” The London-based Times newspaper yesterday said it was endorsing the Conservatives for the first time since 1992 a day after the Economist magazine said it was ditching Labour for Cameron’s party. In its editorial , the Times blamed Brown for losing Labour its support, arguing he had “squandered the boom” and would put the economic recovery in peril. “Cameron has shown the fortitude, judgment and character to lead this country back to a healthier, stronger future,” the Times said. “It is time, once again, to vote Conservative.” To contact the reporter on this story: Gonzalo Vina in London at gvina@bloomberg.net

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U.K. Polls Point to Hung Parliament With Five Days Until General Election

May 1, 2010

By Gonzalo Vina May 2 (Bloomberg) — Conservative leader David Cameron maintained a lead over Gordon Brown’s Labour Party in opinion polls today that suggested no party will win an outright majority in the U.K. general election to be held in five days. Three polls published today by YouGov Plc, ComRes Ltd and ICM Ltd indicate Cameron would fall short of an overall majority in the House of Commons. A poll of marginal seats by ICM Ltd in the News of the World suggested Cameron could scrape a majority of four with the support of Unionist parties in Northern Ireland, leaving him free to govern without relying on Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg after the May 6 election. “If the polls stay as they are, Mr. Cameron, with or without the help of Mr. Clegg, will walk into Downing Street within less than a week,” Business Secretary Peter Mandelson , a key Labour adviser, said in a statement yesterday intended to motivate party activists in the final stage of the race. Brown’s campaign to get Labour re-elected for a fourth successive term suffered blows last week after polls showed he was beaten in the final televised campaign debate and he was forced to apologize for calling a supporter “bigoted.” He lost the backing of three publications in two days, including the Guardian which had backed his party in every vote since 1983. The YouGov poll for the Sunday Times newspaper today showed support at 35 percent for the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats at 28 percent and Labour at 27 percent. That suggests Cameron would win 285 seats in Parliament, Brown 243 and Clegg 90 seats, YouGov said. The pollster interviewed 1,483 voters online on April 30-May 1. It gave no margin of error. No Majority A total of 326 seats is needed for a majority. An ICM Ltd poll for the Sunday Telegraph said the Conservative Party’s support increased by three points since April 27 to 36 percent, Labour increased one point to 29 percent while the Liberal Democrats dropped three points to 27 percent, ICM Ltd. ComRes Ltd for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday said support for Cameron had increased by two points to 38 percent, while support for Labour slipped one point to 28 percent and by the same amount for the Liberal Democrats to 25 percent. ComRes interviewed 1,019 adults on April 30 and May 1. A separate survey of marginal electoral seats by ICM Ltd for the News of the World newspaper said Cameron will scrape a four seat majority in the House of Commons with the support of the unionist parties of Northern Ireland. The pollster interviewed 1,001 adults in 96 seats where Labour has a majority of between four and 10 percentage points over the Conservatives on April 28-29. Hung Parliament The prospect of a hung parliament, the first since 1974, may unsettle investors concerned that a government would be too weak to fix Britain’s record budget deficit. The pound has fallen about 5 percent against the dollar so far this year as the opinion polls pointed increasingly to a political stalemate. In a letter published today, business leaders threw their support behind Cameron, saying a coalition between Brown and Clegg would be “totally disastrous” for companies. It’s the third such letter from company bossed endorsing Conservative policies. Directors of 110 start-ups including Omnifone, Ariadne Capital and Telecity Group Plc said Brown had increased red tape and taxes on companies and that Clegg’s plans to increase capital gains tax would hurt investment. Cameron’s Conservatives are the only party that would “nurture and encourage business,” the leaders said in a letter released to the media today. ‘Perfect Storm’ “The prospect of a Lib-Lab coalition would be a perfect storm for business,” Rob Lewis, executive chairman of Omnifone said in an interview. “A hybrid of their policies would create a very rough ride for British entrepreneurs. It’s very concerning.” The past week was one Brown would prefer to forget. On the eve of the April 29 debate, he was heard calling a Labour voter a “bigoted woman” after an encounter in the northern English town of Rochdale and later apologized to her and to his supporters. “I have personally paid this heavy price for a mistake that I made,” Brown told the Daily Telegraph in an interview published yesterday. “Sometimes you say things in the heat of the moment, sometimes you pay a very heavy price for those things.” The Guardian The Guardian, which called for Brown to step down in June last year when he faced a cabinet rebellion, yesterday endorsed the Liberal Democrats. It’s the first switch from Labour since the party led by Michael Foot campaigned for unilateral nuclear disarmament, nationalization of industries and withdrawal from the European Common Market, a precursor to the European Union. “Invited to embrace five more years of a Labour government, and of Gordon Brown as prime minister, it is hard to feel enthusiasm,” the Guardian said in an editorial. “The Liberal Democrats have for some time most closely matched our own priorities and instincts.” The London-based Times newspaper yesterday said it was endorsing the Conservatives for the first time since 1992 a day after the Economist magazine said it was ditching Labour for Cameron’s party. In its editorial , the Times blamed Brown for losing Labour its support, arguing he had “squandered the boom” and would put the economic recovery in peril. “Cameron has shown the fortitude, judgment and character to lead this country back to a healthier, stronger future,” the Times said. “It is time, once again, to vote Conservative.” To contact the reporter on this story: Gonzalo Vina in London at gvina@bloomberg.net

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Brown’s Labour Loses Guardian Newspaper’s Traditional Endorsement to Clegg

May 1, 2010

By Mark Deen and Robert Hutton May 1 (Bloomberg) — U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s Labour Party lost its traditional backing from the Guardian newspaper, capping a week when polls showed he was beaten in the final televised campaign debate and was forced to apologize for calling a supporter “bigoted.” With an election in five days, the YouGov Plc daily poll showed opposition Conservative Party leader David Cameron ahead by six points in the popular tally and gaining a plurality of seats in parliament, though short of a majority. The Guardian, which called for Brown to step down in June last year, endorsed the Liberal Democrats, the third-largest party, whose support has surged to post-war records in recent weeks. The decision comes as the London-based Times newspaper today said it was endorsing the Conservatives for the first time since 1992 and a day after the Economist magazine said it was ditching Labour for the Cameron’s party. “Invited to embrace five more years of a Labour government, and of Gordon Brown as prime minister, it is hard to feel enthusiasm,” the Guardian said in an editorial. “The Liberal Democrats have for some time most closely matched our own priorities and instincts.” In its editorial today, the Times blamed Brown for losing Labour its support, arguing he had “squandered the boom” and would put the economic recovery in peril. ‘Vote Conservative’ “David Cameron has shown the fortitude, judgment and character to lead this country back to a healthier, stronger future,” the Times said. “It is time, once again, to vote Conservative.” The prospect of a hung parliament, the first since 1974, may unsettle investors concerned that a government would be too weak to fix Britain’s record budget deficit. The pound has fallen about 5 percent against the dollar so far this year as the opinion polls pointed increasingly to a political stalemate. It’s been a week to forget for Brown. On the eve of the April 29 debate, he was heard calling a Labour voter a “bigoted woman” after an encounter in the northern English town of Rochdale and later apologized to her and to his supporters. “I have personally paid this heavy price for a mistake that I made,” Brown told the Daily Telegraph in an interview published today. “Sometimes you say things in the heat of the moment, sometimes you pay a very heavy price for those things. Sometimes you say things you greatly regret. And I have paid a very high price for it.” Polls The YouGov survey put the Conservatives at 34 percent, unchanged from the previous poll. Backing for the Liberal Democrats slipped three points to 28 percent while Labour’s share gained one point to 28 percent. The daily poll for the Sun newspaper was based on a sample of 1,412 voters who were interviewed April 29-30. That makes it among the first polls whose interviews were exclusively conducted since Brown met the voter in Rochdale. Brown defended his handling of the incident in an interview with the British Broadcasting Corp.’s Jeremy Paxman late yesterday and sought to shift focus onto his ability to manage the British economy. “I think my apology was pretty complete,” he told the BBC. “I do get the big calls right.” A Harris Interactive survey for the Daily Mail today puts Labour down two points on 24 percent, the Liberal Democrats up three on 32 percent, and the Conservatives on 33 percent. Harris surveyed 1,020 people on April 29 and yesterday, the Mail said. Blair’s Support Brown’s predecessor, Tony Blair , a three-time election winner, lent Labour his support yesterday, visiting the Harrow West electoral district in northwest London. He said he didn’t think the party will come in third on May 6. “Labour’s got every chance of succeeding,” he told reporters at the event. In the 2005 election, Labour had an 18-point lead over the Conservatives in the district. If they were to lose, it would suggest it was on course to shed close to half their 345 seats in the Westminster Parliament. The Guardian , founded in Manchester in 1821 during the Industrial Revolution, has historically supported Labour, calling itself the “voice of the left” in the late 1970s and early 1980s. In the 1983 election, it backed the alliance between the Liberals and the Social Democratic Party, the BBC said. “The letters page was where the battle for the future direction of the Labour Party was played out, while the coverage of industrial disputes including the 1984-1985 Miners’ Strike defined the paper’s position,” the paper said on its website. To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net

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Brown `Bigoted’ Comment Undermines Trust Argument Going Into Final Debate

April 28, 2010

By Kitty Donaldson and Thomas Penny April 29 (Bloomberg) — Gordon Brown is aiming in tonight’s final leaders’ debate to convince U.K. voters that only his Labour Party can be trusted to safeguard the economy. Yesterday, already fighting for his political life, he made his job harder. The prime minister was forced to apologize, calling himself a “penitent sinner,” after being overheard calling a widow and self-described Labour supporter in northwest England “bigoted” following a disagreement over immigration. “For Brown, the last throw of the dice tonight was going to be ‘I may be flawed in presentation but you can trust me,’” said Andrew Hawkins , chairman of London-based pollster ComRes Ltd. “That has been undermined. Take away his potency on trust and you have taken away about his only asset.” Brown has been running third behind the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in voter preference in most recent polls. Still, some pollsters have forecast that Labour will win a plurality of seats in Parliament. Yesterday’s incident may benefit the Liberal Democrats because wavering Brown supporters may turn to that party, Hawkins said. This would increase the chances of a so-called hung Parliament in which no party wins a majority of seats. That prospect may unsettle investors on concern that a government lacking a majority would be too weak to fix Britain’s record budget deficit. The pound has dropped about 2 percent against the dollar since Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg was judged by polls to have won the first TV debate on April 15. ‘Preposterous’ With neither Brown nor Conservative leader David Cameron set to win a majority, Clegg may be able to name his price for backing one of the other parties. The Liberal Democrat leader said April 25 it would be “preposterous” for Brown to remain premier if Labour finishes third in the popular vote. A daily YouGov Plc poll for The Sun newspaper released last night showed Conservative support gaining 1 percentage point to 34 percent, while the Liberal Democrats rose 3 points to 31 percent and Labour slipped 2 points to 27 percent. YouGov questioned 1,530 voters April 27 and yesterday. That would give the Conservatives 259 lawmakers, 67 short of a majority, Labour 251 and Clegg’s party 109, according to the seat calculator on the U.K. Polling Report Web site. Forty-six percent of Labour supporters said they might change their mind, according to an Ipsos Mori poll published April 23, and almost half of all voters have yet to make a final decision. Economic Focus The economy will be the focus of the first half of tonight’s debate in Birmingham, central England. Labour officials had been counting on the event giving Brown a platform to talk about his record in tackling the financial crisis and to press his claim that only his party can be trusted to ensure a continued recovery. “The person with the most to lose is Gordon Brown because his job is on the line,” said Paul Whitely, professor of government at Essex University. “Brown will reiterate that the Tories will put the economy at risk and he is right to do that, but it’s not very easy.” Brown’s debate preparations were thrown into disarray yesterday when he was campaigning in Rochdale, near Manchester, a district Labour is aiming to win from the Liberal Democrats. The prime minister was confronted by Gillian Duffy, 66, who complained about levels of immigration and difficulties experienced by people who are unable to work in claiming state benefits. ‘Eastern Europeans’ “You can’t say anything about the immigrants,” she told him. “All these eastern Europeans coming in — where are they flocking from?”     Immigration is the second-most important topic for voters, with 29 percent saying it is one of the biggest issues facing Britain today, according to an Ipsos Mori poll of 977 voters between April 9 and 15. No margin of error was given. The poll rated the economy as most important, cited by 55 percent. “She was just a sort of bigoted woman who said she used to be Labour,” Brown, 59, said to an aide after getting back in his car. “That was a disaster. Who put me with that woman?” The incident “crystallized widespread doubts about Brown, that he is grumpy and misanthropic,” said Bill Jones , professor of politics at Liverpool Hope University. The prime minister has thrown pens and a stapler at staff, and once shoved a laser printer off a desk in a rage, according to one former adviser. Another aide was warned to watch out for “flying Nokias” when he joined Brown’s team. In February, Brown denied he ordered his aides to undermine Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling in 2008. Darling said “the forces of hell were unleashed” from Brown’s office after he gave an interview saying Britain faced the worst recession in 60 years. “Labour is at a point of vulnerability and can’t afford to be hemorrhaging votes at this stage,” said Mark Wickham-Jones , a professor of politics at Bristol University. “One of the consequences of this gaffe is that rather than talking about the economy they will spend the next few days talking about immigration.” To contact the reporters on this story: Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net ; Thomas Penny in London at tpenny@bloomberg.net .

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Brown Is `Penitent’ After Being Caught Calling U.K. Voter `Bigoted Woman’

April 28, 2010

By Gonzalo Vina and Kitty Donaldson April 28 (Bloomberg) — Prime Minister Gordon Brown called himself a “penitent sinner” after being caught on a microphone calling a voter he’d just met “a bigoted woman,” a potential setback as his Labour Party struggles to win support for the May 6 election. Brown was discussing the concerns the voter, Gillian Duffy, had about immigration in Rochdale, near Manchester in northwest England, today as he campaigned to win back the district from the opposition Liberal Democrats. Brown made the comments, played on Sky News television, while still wearing his microphone after he got back into his car. He later spent a half hour visiting Duffy at her home to apologize. “It’s an embarrassment and it doesn’t do much for his honesty and reputation,” said John Curtice , a professor of politics at Strathclyde University in Scotland. “This is obviously going to make it harder for Labour to catch up.” Brown has been running third behind the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in most recent polls. Labour is also forecast to have the most seats in Parliament, though short of a majority. Gains by the Liberal Democrats have increased the chance of a so-called hung Parliament. “She is just the sort of bigoted woman who said she used to be Labour,” Brown said in the car. “That was a disaster. Who put me with that woman?” ‘Eastern Europeans’ Duffy had confronted Brown in the street. “You can’t say anything about immigrants,” she told him. “All these eastern Europeans — where are they coming from?” “I am a penitent sinner, sometimes you say things that you don’t mean to say, sometimes you say things by mistake and sometimes when you say things you want to correct it very quickly,” Brown told reporters as he left Duffy’s house. “I have come here to say to Gillian that I am sorry that I made a mistake but also to say that I understood the concerns she was bringing.” Pollster Andrew Hawkins of ComRes Ltd. said the episode will benefit Liberal Democrats the most because “reluctant Labour voters are more likely to lend their votes” to the party’s leader, Nick Clegg , next week. “Now Gordon Brown is going to come across as a leader who cannot be trusted,” Hawkins said in an interview. Poll Findings A ComRes poll last night showed the Conservatives at 32 percent support, compared with 29 percent for Labour and the Liberal Democrats. That would give Labour 277 seats, with Conservatives taking 248, and the Liberal Democrats 93 in the 650-seat House of Commons . The uneven distribution of votes in the U.K. means Labour may still be the biggest bloc in Parliament, though without a majority, even if it only comes in third in the popular vote. The threat of a hung Parliament may roil markets on concern that power sharing between parties would create a government too weak to fix Britain’s finances. The pound has dropped 2.1 percent against the dollar since the first TV debate as polls have pointed increasingly to a hung Parliament. Sterling fell to $1.5166 at 4:32 p.m. in London from $1.5265 in New York late yesterday. Investors are concerned about possible lack of action to narrow the U.K.’s budget deficit, the biggest of any Group of Seven country. The deficit widened 76 percent in the year through March to 152.8 billion pounds ($233 billion), the largest since World War II. The encounter with the voter was the last such public appearance before Brown was due to gather with officials to prepare for a debate with Clegg and Conservative leader David Cameron tomorrow. Final Debate Labour Party officials had been counting on the final televised debate, on the economy, to give Brown a chance to overshadow his opponents because of his decade of experience as finance minister before becoming premier in 2007. Clegg was judged by polls to have won the first encounter. The second, last week, was judged to have had no clear winner. “I am very upset,” Duffy told reporters in Rochdale after hearing Brown’s comments. “He’s an educated person. Why has he come up with comments like that?” “I don’t want to speak to him again,” she said. “I want to know why I was called a bigot, that’s all.” Duffy said she would not be voting in the election now after supporting Labour all her life. ‘Lot of Explaining’ “We have found out the prime minister’s internal thoughts,” the Conservative Party’s Treasury spokesman, George Osborne , told Sky News television. “He has got a lot of explaining to do.” Clegg told Sky that Brown was right to apologize. “Saying something that’s clearly fairly insulting is not right, not right at all,” he said. Labour’s most senior politicians rallied around Brown to say that the comments were a mistake and that Brown had no intention of hurting Duffy. Business Secretary Peter Mandelson said the comments were made in the “heat of the moment” and Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said Brown had made a “profuse” apology. Immigration is the second most important issue facing Britain after the economy, according an Ipsos Mori poll carried out this month. Fourteen percent of those questioned said it was the most important issue, the poll of 977 voters showed. Brown’s behavior has attracted scrutiny in the past and this latest episode may undermine his ability to leapfrog the Liberal Democrats in the opinion polls. Last year, Cameron taunted him in Parliament about reports of mobile phones being hurled at aides. The prime minister has thrown pens and even a stapler at officials, according to one former adviser; he says Brown once shoved a laser printer off a desk in a rage. Another aide was warned to watch out for “flying Nokias” when he joined Brown’s team. To contact the reporters on this story: Gonzalo Vina in Rochdale, England, at gvina@bloomberg.net ; Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net

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Brown Apologizes After Calling U.K. Voter `Bigoted’ in Immigration Stance

April 28, 2010

By Gonzalo Vina and Kitty Donaldson April 28 (Bloomberg) — Prime Minister Gordon Brown had to apologize after he was caught by a microphone calling a voter he’d just met “a bigoted woman,” a potential setback as his Labour Party struggles to win support for the May 6 election. Brown was discussing the concerns the voter, Gillian Duffy, had about immigration in Rochdale as he campaigned to win back the seat that is near Manchester in northwest England. Brown made the comments, played on Sky News television, while still wearing his microphone after he got back into his car. His aides said he visited Duffy at her home to apologize for the comments. “It’s an embarrassment and it doesn’t do much for his honesty and reputation,” said John Curtice , a professor of politics at Strathclyde University in Scotland. “This is obviously going to make it harder for Labour to catch up.” Brown was already runninng third in a ComRes Ltd. poll yesterday, which also forecast him as having the most seats in Parliament behind the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, though short of a majority. Gains by the Liberal Democrats have increased the chance of a so-called hung parliament. “She is just the sort of bigoted woman who said she used to be Labour,” Brown said in the car. “That was a disaster. Who put me with that woman?” Duffy had confronted Brown about immigration from eastern Europe and people claiming out-of-work benefits. Brown later told BBC radio in an interview he apologised “profusely” for his comment, saying he found the question on immigration “annoying.” Liberal Democrat Gain Pollster Andrew Hawkins of ComRes Ltd. said the episode will benefit Liberal Democrats the most because “reluctant Labour voters are more likely to lend their votes” to the party’s leader, Nick Clegg , next week. “Now Gordon Brown is going to come across as a leader who cannot be trusted,” Hawkins said in an interview. The encounter with the voter was the last such public appearance before Brown was due to gather with officials to prepare for a debate with Clegg and Conservative leader David Cameron tomorrow. Labour Party officials hoped the final televised debate on the economy would allow Brown overshadow his opponents because of his decade of experience as finance minister before becoming premier in 2007. Clegg was judged by polls to have won the first encounter. The second, last week, was judged to have had no clear winner. “I am very upset,” Duffy told reporters in Rochdale after hearing Brown’s comments. “He’s an educated person, why has he come up with comments like that?” ‘That’s All’ “I don’t want to speak to him again,” she said. “I want to know why I was called a bigot, that’s all.” Duffy said she would not now be voting in the election. “We have found out the prime minister’s internal thoughts,” Conservative Treasury spokesman George Osborne told Sky News television. “He has got a lot of explaining to do.” Clegg told Sky that Brown was right to apologize. “Saying something that’s clearly fairly insulting is not right, not right at all,” he said. Labour’s most senior politicians rallied around Brown to say that the comments were a mistake and that Brown had no intention of hurting Duffy. Business Secretary Peter Mandelson said the comments were made in the “heat of the moment” and Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said Brown had made a “profuse” apology. Brown’s Character Brown’s character has attracted scrutiny in the past and this latest episode may undermine his ability to leapfrog the Liberal Democrats in the opinion polls. Last year, Cameron taunted him in Parliament about reports of mobile phones being hurled at aides. The prime minister has thrown pens and even a stapler at officials, according to one former adviser; he says he once saw Brown shove a laser printer off a desk in a rage. Another aide was warned to watch out for “flying Nokias” when he joined Brown’s team. Because of the uneven distribution of votes, Labour may still be the biggest bloc in Parliament, though without a majority. The threat of a hung Parliament may roil markets on concern that power sharing between parties would create a government too weak to fix Britain’s finances. A ComRes Ltd. poll last night showed the Conservatives at 32 percent support, compared with 29 percent for Labour and the Liberal Democrats. That would give Labour 277 seats, with Conservatives taking 248, and the Liberal Democrats 93 in the 650-seat House of Commons . The pound has dropped 1.9 percent against the dollar since the first TV debate as polls have pointed increasingly to a hung Parliament. Sterling fell to $1.5189 at 3:24 p.m. in London from $1.5265 in New York late yesterday. Investors are concerned about possible lack of action to narrow the U.K.’s budget deficit, the biggest of any Group of Seven country. The deficit widened 76 percent in the year through March to 152.8 billion pounds ($233 billion), the largest since World War II. To contact the reporters on this story: Gonzalo Vina in Rochdale, England, at gvina@bloomberg.net ; Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net

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Clegg Targeting More Seats as Party’s Rise Points to Hung U.K. Parliament

April 27, 2010

By Thomas Penny and Mark Deen April 28 (Bloomberg) — Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg said his party raised its target for the number of House of Commons seats it is trying to win in the May 6 U.K. election after it surged to second place in most opinion polls. “We’ve done a lot of work over the last week or two to identify a raft of seats we’re now targeting against both Labour and the Conservatives,” Clegg said in an interview as he returned to London after campaigning in southern England yesterday. “We started by targeting well over 100, which is more than we ever have before.” Clegg did not say which seats or how many had been added to the list. Gains in seats by the Liberal Democrats increase the likelihood of a hung Parliament in which neither Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s Labour Party nor the main opposition Conservatives would have a majority. That outcome may roil markets on concern that power sharing between parties would create a government too weak to fix Britain’s finances. A ComRes Ltd. poll last night indicated Labour and the Liberal Democrats are battling for second place behind the Conservatives. Because of the uneven distribution of votes, that may still enable Labour to be the biggest bloc in Parliament, though without a majority. Televised Debates The Liberal Democrats have been buoyed by Clegg’s performances in televised debates, which boosted their ratings from around 20 percent. The ComRes poll put their support at 29 percent, which would translate into 93 lawmakers in the 650-seat House of Commons , up from 62 at the last election in 2005. The poll showed Labour, which also has 29 percent support, are set to win 277 seats, with the Conservatives taking 248, even though they are leading with 32 percent of the vote.      The pound has dropped 1.7 percent against the dollar since the first TV debate as polls have pointed increasingly to a hung Parliament. Investors are concerned about possible lack of action to narrow the U.K.’s budget deficit, the biggest of any Group of Seven country. The deficit widened 76 percent in the year through March to 152.8 billion pounds ($233 billion), the largest since World War II. Labour and the Liberal Democrats are seeking to reassure voters that such an outcome would not lead to economic instability, countering concerns expressed by the Conservatives. “I think that the markets have pretty well discounted whatever the result,” the Labour government’s business secretary, Peter Mandelson , said yesterday. “I think that they know that in our political system you will get sensible, stable, grown-up politics.”      Vince Cable , who handles Liberal Democrat economic policy, echoed that sentiment. ‘Not Stupid’      “All the signs I get are that the market has factored it into their pricing,” he said yesterday. “The guys in the banks are not stupid, they understand these things.”       George Osborne , the Conservatives’ Treasury spokesman, predicted this week that a hung Parliament could lead to a “dip in confidence,” a slump in the pound and “disastrous” increases in interest rates that would “paralyze” the country.      The challenge for Clegg now is to translate his party’s extra national support into more lawmakers by scoring victories in individual districts. “They were already targeting seats around Newcastle and Liverpool, so it might be a case of widening their targets around there,” YouGov Plc pollster Anthony Wells said in a telephone interview. “That means taking Labour areas.”      Wells said Clegg might also be trying to gain seats in southwest England the Liberal Democrats previously expected the Conservatives to win.  Clegg said he’s “pretty confident” party members would back him on any post-election agreement, even though the applause at the party’s conference in Birmingham last month was louder for attacks on the Conservatives than Labour. “We’ve got serious plans on tax reform, banking reform, education and reforming politics, that’s what we’ll be pursuing,” he said. Clegg has ruled out propping up a Brown-led government if Labour finishes third in the popular vote, even if it wins the most seats. To contact the reporters responsible for this story: Thomas Penny in London at tpenny@bloomberg.net ; Mark Deen in London at markdeen@bloomberg.net .

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Brown’s Third-Place Vote May Give Him Most Seats as Cameron Woos Undecided

April 26, 2010

By Rodney Jefferson and Robert Hutton April 27 (Bloomberg) — British Prime Minister Gordon Brown ran third behind the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in three polls last night by margins that, because of uneven vote distribution, may still give his Labour Party the most seats in Parliament after next week’s election. The wrinkle is the record number of undecided voters, which has created what Brown calls a “wide open” election. Conservative leader David Cameron is stepping up his campaign to attract those who, disillusioned after 13 years of Labour government, could make him prime minister. “People have normally made up their minds a couple of weeks before this stage,” said Anthony Wells of pollster YouGov Plc. “If we’ve had one big switch during the campaign, anything could happen.” Last night’s polls were the latest to suggest the May 6 election is likely to produce the first Parliament since 1974 in which no party wins a majority. Support for the Liberal Democrats has surged since their leader, Nick Clegg , 43, was judged the winner of the first televised debate in polls following the April 15 event. Labour was third in 24 of the last 30 polls. If that result is borne out in next week’s voting, it would be the worst result for the party since 1918. The Conservatives will tonight air a television spot warning those want change that voting for any other party might keep Brown in office at the head of a coalition government including the Liberal Democrats. Wavering Voters While support for the Liberal Democrats has jumped about 10 percentage points since the debate, a YouGov poll completed April 23 found 27 percent of their supporters would consider switching. That compared with 17 percent of those backing the Conservatives and 15 percent for Labour. Cameron yesterday began targeting districts held by Labour that the Conservatives had previously viewed as not winnable. That was an acknowledgement that they might now be unable to seize control of about 20 Liberal Democrat-held seats they need to win to gain a House of Commons majority. “We have extended our battleground,” Cameron, 43, said as he headed to the southern coastal city of Southampton. A daily ComRes Ltd. opinion poll published last night found 32 percent of respondents supporting the Conservatives, with 31 percent backing Clegg’s party and 28 percent Labour. Translated into seats in the House of Commons , that would give Labour 268 seats, 58 short of a majority, the Conservatives 238 and the Liberal Democrats 112, ComRes said. It telephoned 1,003 voters April 24 and yesterday in its survey for ITV News and the Independent newspaper. No margin of error was given. Conservatives’ Support The ComRes numbers are in line with an ICM poll for the Guardian and a YouGov poll for The Sun. ICM showed support for the Conservatives at 33 percent, with the Liberal Democrats at 30 percent and Labour at 28 percent. YouGov put also Cameron’s party at 33 percent, 4 points ahead of the Liberal Democrats and 5 points ahead of Labour. “In polling terms, he’s dead in the water,” ComRes Chairman Andrew Hawkins said of Brown, 59. “The only asset they’ve got is the electoral mathematics. They could easily become the largest party on a very small share of the vote.” An outcome in which Brown loses the popular vote and wins the most seats — and the first crack at forming a government — would push an overhaul of the voting system to the top of the post-election agenda just as investors and credit ratings companies are looking for swift action to reduce the U.K.’s mounting debt . Vulnerable Pound The pound has declined 4.3 percent this year against the dollar. It would be vulnerable to sharper declines should political wrangling detract from action to bolster the economy and cut the budget deficit, said Mike Turner , head of strategy at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc. “The fear is you don’t get any clarity, immediately anyway, and it still hits sterling,” said Turner. Clegg said April 25 it would be “preposterous” for Brown to stay on if Labour comes in third. “It’s the sort of thing that’s so absurd it would lead to change,” Bill Dinning , head of strategy at Aegon Asset Management in Edinburgh, said. “One of the effects is electoral reform is on the agenda.” Each of the three main parties is advocating some sort of electoral reform, and the tighter the result, the more such changes will dominate the post-election agenda, according to Nicola McEwen , a politics lecturer at the University of Edinburgh. ‘Weakness of the System’ “It would show that people wanted to kick the government out, so the weakness of the system will be exposed,” she said. “There would have to be a referendum on political reform.” In each of the 650 electoral districts, voters cast their ballots for a single member of Parliament, and the winner is the one with the most support. The so-called first-past-the-post system doesn’t necessarily mean the party with the biggest proportion of the national vote comes away with the most seats in London’s Westminster parliament. That’s complicated further when another party is added to the mix. “It’s a third party entering a system designed for a two- party world like in the U.S.,” said Charles Pattie, a geography professor at the University of Sheffield. “You could have all three parties tied on about 30 percent and Labour just about reaching the winning post. It’s quirky and weird.” To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net ; Rodney Jefferson in Edinburgh at r.jefferson@bloomberg.net

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Cameron Targets Labour Districts as Conservatives Try to Woo Clegg Backers

April 26, 2010

By Kitty Donaldson and Robert Hutton April 26 (Bloomberg) — Conservative David Cameron switched the focus of his election campaign to districts held by Gordon Brown ’s Labour Party , reflecting the way a surge in support for the Liberal Democrats has made it harder for him to win power. The Liberal Democrats’ poll ratings have climbed since their leader, Nick Clegg , won the first televised leaders’ debate on April 15. Of 27 surveys completed since then, 21 have put his party in second place, ahead of Labour, and pointing to a House of Commons where no bloc has a majority. That makes it more difficult for the Conservatives to win Liberal Democrat seats they had previously been targeting. “We are aiming for a majority government, we believe that’s doable,” Cameron told a news conference in London today before he set off to campaign in Southampton on England’s south coast. “That’s why we have extended our battleground.” He appealed to people thinking about voting for the Liberal Democrats to reconsider, saying that only a single-party Conservative administration could deliver real change. The Conservatives must gain 117 districts in the May 6 elections to win a majority in the House of Commons . Both Cameron and Brown are making trips today to Southampton, where Labour holds two seats the Conservatives had previously considered too hard to win. Cameron said that with Clegg’s rise taking support from Brown, such district were now winnable. At least 20 of the seats the Conservatives were previously aiming to take are held by the Liberal Democrats. 10-Point Lead The electoral system means Labour might still win the largest number of seats in Parliament even if it finishes third in vote share. The uneven distribution of party support across the country means the Conservatives need at least a 10 percentage-point lead over Labour to be sure of gaining a majority of seats. A YouGov Plc poll of 1,466 people in today’s Sun newspaper put the Conservatives at 34 percent, the Liberal Democrats at 30 percent and Labour at 28 percent. No margin of error was given.     “Whether you’ve been a Lib Dem voter or a Labour voter or a Green voter, if you care about the environment, if you want action to improve your quality of life, if you care about civil liberties, if you care about people power, if you want a clean break from the past — vote Conservative,” Cameron said. A hung Parliament may roil markets because a divided government would be too weak to fix Britain’s finances, some economists say. The pound slumped 1 percent in the two days after the first debate. Sterling strengthened today for the first time in three days, rising 0.4 percent to $1.5439 at 11:05 a.m. in London, after a report showed U.K. house prices increased for a ninth consecutive month. ‘Clear Mandate’ A survey of 300 businesses by the British Chambers of Commerce published today found 65 percent “concerned” or “very concerned” at the prospect of a hung Parliament. “Instinctively, companies prefer a clear mandate to lead and govern,” BCC Director General David Frost said in an e-mailed statement. Yesterday Clegg said it would be “preposterous” for Gordon Brown to stay on as prime minister if Labour comes in third in the popular vote. Asked about other possible partners in an interview with BBC News in Edinburgh today, Clegg said, “I will work with anyone who is prepared to work with me to introduce the big reforms.” Clegg said yesterday the recent rise in support for his party meant changes to the voting system would be “unavoidable” after the election. Electoral-system changes are vital to the Liberal Democrats because the first-past-the-post rule hurts smaller parties. In 2005, Liberal Democrats won 22 percent of the vote but fewer than 10 percent of the seats. If there is a hung Parliament, Clegg’s party may be able to demand change as a price for its support. Today Cameron didn’t rule out doing a deal with Clegg on electoral reform, simply saying instead that he supports the system as it stands. “I don’t support changing our electoral system, I think it works for Britain,” Cameron said. To contact the reporters on this story: Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net ; Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net .

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Clegg Says Brown Can’t Stay as Premier After Third-Place Finish by Labour

April 25, 2010

By Kitty Donaldson and Robert Hutton April 26 (Bloomberg) — Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg said it would be “preposterous” for Gordon Brown to stay as prime minister if his Labour Party comes third in the popular vote in the May 6 U.K. election, highlighting the obstacles to Brown remaining in power. “There are now indications Labour might come third in terms of people voting for the different parties,” Clegg told BBC 1 television’s Andrew Marr program yesterday. “It is just preposterous, the idea that if a party comes third in terms of the number of votes it still somehow has the right to carry on squatting in No. 10,” the premier’s Downing Street office, “and continue to lay claim to having the prime minister.” Out of 27 polls completed since Clegg’s breakthrough performance in the first televised leaders’ debate on April 15, 21 have put Labour in third place in popular support, according to the U.K. Polling Report Web site. The electoral system means Labour might still win the largest number of seats in Parliament even if it finishes third in vote share. Clegg said the recent rise in support for the Liberal Democrats meant changes to the voting system would be “unavoidable” after the election, signaling that would be an important element in deciding whether to support one of the other parties in a hung Parliament in which no party has an outright majority. Latest Poll A YouGov Plc poll of 1,466 people in today’s Sun newspaper put David Cameron ’s Conservatives on 34 percent, the Liberal Democrats on 30 percent and Labour on 28 percent. No margin of error was given. According to British Broadcasting Corp. calculations, such a result would give Labour 264 seats out of 650 in Parliament, the Conservatives 259 and the Liberal Democrats 98. The uneven distribution of party support across the country means the Conservatives need at least a 10 percentage-point lead over Labour to be sure of gaining a majority of seats. A hung Parliament may roil markets because a divided government would be too weak to fix Britain’s finances, some economists say. The pound slumped 1 percent in the two days after the first debate. It has fallen 4.8 percent against the dollar this year. ‘Clear Mandate’ A survey of 300 businesses by the British Chambers of Commerce published today found 65 percent “concerned” or “very concerned” at the prospect of a hung Parliament. “Instinctively, companies prefer a clear mandate to lead and govern,” BCC Director General David Frost said in an e-mailed statement. The momentum gained by Clegg after two leaders’ debates may prevent the Conservatives from winning swing seats held by Labour and the Liberal Democrats that Cameron’s party needs to take power. The Conservatives responded to Clegg’s surge by arguing that a vote for him could see Brown returned to office. The Liberal Democrat leader “has to protect himself from the ‘Vote Clegg, Get Brown,’ tag,” said Steven Fielding , director of the Centre for British Politics at Nottingham University. “He wants to retain the idea that he’s the change. The idea that he’d prop up a third-placed Brown would completely undermine that.” First Past the Post Electoral-system changes are vital to the Liberal Democrats because the first-past-the-post rule hurts smaller parties. In 2005, Liberal Democrats won 22 percent of the vote but fewer than 10 percent of the seats. If there is a hung Parliament, Clegg’s party may be able to demand change as a price for its support. “It’s about trying to seize the initiative in negotiations, trying to show they have terms and conditions,” said Andrew Russell, co-author of “Neither Left Nor Right,” a history of the Liberal Democrats. As well as voting change, the Liberal Democrats are also seeking to clamp down on bonus payments to bankers and to relieve 3.6 million low earners of the need to pay income tax. In an interview with yesterday’s Observer newspaper, Cameron refused to rule out the possibility of a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, although he emphasized he prefers to keep the electoral system in its current form to enable voters “to throw a government out of office.” ‘First and Hardest’     Brown used a speech in London yesterday to warn that a Conservative government would cut spending in areas that rely on it most. “They have already marked out the regions to be hit first and hardest,” he said. A report by the Centre for Economic and Business Research today shows that in two regions, Wales and Northern Ireland, public spending accounts for 70 percent of gross domestic product, twice what it does in London. For the U.K. as a whole, government spending has risen to 48 percent of GDP in the current fiscal year from 37 percent in 1998-99. Business Secretary Peter Mandelson , acknowledging his party is trailing in the polls, said in a Sunday Mirror newspaper interview that some former Labour voters are considering “looking elsewhere.” He said his message to them was that a vote for the Liberal Democrats risked a Conservative government. “You might start flirting with Nick Clegg, but that way you will end up marrying David Cameron,” Mandelson said. To contact the reporters on this story: Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net ; Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net .

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Brown’s Labour Trails in U.K. Opinion Polls That Point to Hung Parliament

April 24, 2010

By Kitty Donaldson April 25 (Bloomberg) — Prime Minister Gordon Brown trailed in five opinion polls , while a limited rise in support for the main opposition Conservative Party put the U.K. on course for a hung Parliament after May 6 elections. Support for David Cameron ’s Conservatives ranged from 32 to 36 percent in six polls published today, while continued scores for the Liberal Democrats, the third party, of between 23 and 32 points increased the chance that neither of the two main parties will gain the outright majority required to form a government. Labour’s popularity ranged between 23 and 30 percentage points. The momentum gained by Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg after two televised leaders’ debates may prevent the Conservatives from winning the swing seats held by Brown’s Labour Party they need to take power. “The Liberal Democrat surge is here to stay, but it is questionable how solid it will be on polling day,” Andrew Hawkins, chief executive of ComRes Ltd. said in an interview. “We are still very much in hung Parliament territory. Cameron still looks likely to be leading the largest party without a majority but the situation is very, very fluid.” A ComRes survey published in the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror newspapers shows Labour gained three percentage points, to 28 percent, since the company’s poll published April 21. Brown’s party trails the Conservatives with 34 percent, down one point, and the Liberal Democrats at 29 percent, a gain of two points. Undecided Voters “The number of people who are ‘absolutely certain’ to vote but who are undecided about who to vote for now stands at 3.3 million British adults,” ComRes’s Hawkins said in a statement. ComRes surveyed 1,006 adults by telephone yesterday and today, with the data weighted to be representative of all adults and by past vote. A separate OnePoll survey for The People tabloid newspaper put the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats even with 32 percent and Labour on 23 percent. OnePoll surveyed 2,571 voters between April 22 and April 24, with no margin of error given. An Ipsos Mori survey for the News of The World gave Cameron’s party 36 percent, six points ahead of Labour on 30, with the Liberal Democrats at 23 percent. If the findings were turned into votes on May 6, Labour would be the biggest party with 280 seats, four more than the Conservatives, according to the newspaper. Ipsos MORI interviewed 1,245 adults by telephone on April 23. Seat Projections The Sunday Telegraph’s ICM Ltd. poll showed the Conservatives up two percentage points to 35 percent, compared with the company’s previous poll conducted last week. The Liberal Democrats are up one point to 31 percent with Labour on 26 percent, a drop of two points, ICM said. The ICM survey showed Cameron’s party still lacks the support for an overall majority, with the figures giving the Conservatives 284 parliamentary seats compared with Labour’s 232, the Telegraph said . The Liberal Democrats would have 102 seats. ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,020 adults by telephone on April 23 with the results weighted to the profile of all adults A survey for the Sunday Times by YouGov Plc showed the Conservatives on 35 percent, up two points on last week, with the Liberal Democrats down one to 29 percent and Labour down three on 27 percent. YouGov, BPIX The figures show that the Tories are between 40 and 50 seats short of what they would need for an overall majority, the paper said. YouGov interviewed 1,412 voters online yesterday and today, the newspaper said. A BPIX poll for the Mail on Sunday showed the Conservatives regaining ground at the expense of their rivals, climbing three points on last week to 34 percent, with the Liberal Democrats on 30 percent, a drop of two points, and Labour on 26 percent, also a decline of two. BPIX interviewed 2,139 people online April 23 and 24, the newspaper said. To contact the reporter on this story: Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net

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Cameron’s Failure to Top Clegg in Debate Polls Signals Minority Government

April 22, 2010

By Robert Hutton and Kitty Donaldson April 23 (Bloomberg) — Conservative David Cameron failed to derail Nick Clegg in the U.K. campaign’s second debate, four instant polls showed, pointing to a hung parliament with Prime Minister Gordon Brown ’s Labour Party as the largest bloc. In a 90-minute televised debate, Brown, 59, compared his 43-year-old opponents to children “squabbling at bathtime.” Cameron, who led polls until Clegg’s surge after last week’s debate, said a government without a majority would prevent “decisive action” to narrow a record budget deficit . Clegg dismissed such warnings as “ludicrous scare stories.” Of four surveys released immediately after the event, two showed Clegg won and a pair favored Cameron. That suggests the debate will produce little change in polls on the overall race in coming days. Most since last week show Labour winning a plurality of seats in the May 6 election. “It would have been a game-changer if Clegg had crashed and burned,” said Justin Fisher, professor of politics at Brunel University in London. “Clegg held up better than I thought he would. He won’t fall back to his pre-debate levels” — about 10 points below where he is now. A YouGov Plc daily poll before last night’s debate put the Conservatives at 34 percent and Labour at 29 percent, with the Liberal Democrats at 28 percent . That would leave Labour with 278 seats to 251 for the Conservatives and 88 for the Liberal Democrats, according to the standard calculations used by academics and pollsters. YouGov questioned 1,576 people April 21 and yesterday. No margin of error was given. Pound Weakens Such a result may roil markets because a divided government would be too weak to fix Britain’s finances, some economists say. The pound slumped 1 percent in the two days after the debate last week and weakened in early Asian trading, dropping 0.2 percent at 8:16 a.m. in Tokyo. It has lost 5.1 percent against the dollar this year. In last night’s debate, Brown, whose party has controlled the government since 1997, addressed his own unpopularity. “Like me or not, I can deliver,” he said. He later told his opponents: “David, you’re a risk to the economy, Nick is a risk to our security.” Brown told Clegg to “get real” and stop opposing nuclear weapons. He criticized Cameron over his European policy and Conservative proposals to cut spending this year as Britain emerges from recession . ‘Get Real’ “Iran, you’re saying, might be able to have a nuclear weapon and you wouldn’t take action against them, but you’re also saying give up our Trident submarines,” Brown told Clegg on the stage of an arts center in Bristol. “Get real about the danger we face if we have North Korea, Iran and other countries with nuclear weapons and we give up our own.” Clegg opposes updating Britain’s submarine-based Trident missile system. Brown said Cameron’s “ anti-Europeanism becomes more and more obvious as this debate goes on.” Cameron said he wanted to be “in Europe but not run by Europe.” Cameron made some direct attacks on Clegg, at one point taking on the Liberal Democrat leader’s claim that his party had escaped censure following disclosures that scores of lawmakers were reimbursed with taxpayer money for personal expenses. “Frankly, Nick, we all had problems with this,” the Conservative said. “Don’t let’s anyone put themselves on a pedestal.” Clegg criticized Cameron over his decision to end the Conservatives’ alliance in the European Parliament with the parties of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy . EU Allies The Conservatives joined with eastern European parties that include Latvia’s For Fatherland and Freedom, which has come under fire from academics for its links to Latvians who fought with the Nazi SS in World War II. Clegg described the Conservatives’ allies as “a bunch of nutters, anti-Semites, people who deny climate change exists, homophobes.” All three changed their debating tactics, switching away from last week’s emphasis on anecdotes about voters they’d met in the campaign. Brown and Cameron both copied Clegg’s technique from the previous debate of addressing the camera directly, rather than the studio audience. “David Cameron made a really concerted attempt to highlight the differences between the three parties, and how hard it would be to reach agreement in a hung Parliament,” said Jane Green, a lecturer in politics at Manchester University. “But I was surprised he didn’t make more of the message that a vote for Clegg is a vote for Brown.” To contact the reporters on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net ; Kitty Donaldson in Bristol at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net

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Cameron Takes Aim at Clegg in Debate as Brown Gains From Split Opposition

April 21, 2010

By Robert Hutton and Thomas Penny April 22 (Bloomberg) — Conservative David Cameron will be looking for an opening to attack Liberal Democrat Nick Clegg in tonight’s second U.K. campaign debate. Prime Minister Gordon Brown stands to profit should the assault fail. Cameron needs to find a way to use the debate to undermine Clegg, whose support surged after last week’s first round, without turning off previously undecided voters attracted by the Liberal Democrat’s promise of “new politics.” “Cameron has got to stop Clegg or else he loses,” said Roger Mortimore , head of political and electoral research at London-based polling company Ipsos Mori. “The really tricky question is how far can he safely go in attacking Clegg’s credibility? Get the tone wrong and it will look like proof of everything Clegg is saying.” Clegg’s gains may prevent the Conservatives from winning the swing seats held by Brown’s Labour Party they need to take power in the May 6 election. Some polls indicate that Labour may still emerge as the largest party in Parliament , while short of a majority, as Cameron and Clegg split the opposition vote. Such a result may roil markets because a divided government would be too weak to narrow a record budget deficit, some economists say. The pound slumped 1 percent in the two days after the debate last week. It has lost 4.7 percent against the dollar this year and traded at $1.5412 at 10:05 p.m. in London. ‘Attack the Conservatives’ Brown’s approach in tonight’s debate, which focuses on foreign and defense policy, will be to “keep repeating the mantra that this is a crisis we’re in, and don’t let the other lot mess it up,” said Andrew Hawkins , the chairman of London- based polling company ComRes Ltd. “He’s got to do as much as he can to boost the Lib Dems and as much as possible to attack the Conservatives.” Brown, 59, argues that Conservative plans to reverse a payroll-tax increase and cut spending this year would damage the economy just as it emerges from recession . Cameron, 43, needs to win votes from the Liberal Democrats in Labour-held seats and take seats directly from Clegg’s party to accumulate the 117 extra lawmakers the Conservatives need for a majority in the 650-seat House of Commons. That is looking increasingly unlikely. The Liberal Democrats overtook Labour to move into second place in most polls , and into first in some. Pollsters say most of Clegg’s new backers come from those who hadn’t previously made up their minds. Seat Breakdown An Ipsos Mori poll in yesterday’s Evening Standard newspaper put support for both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats at 32 percent, with Labour at 28 percent. That would still leave Labour with 270 lawmakers to the Conservatives’ 244, the Standard said. Ipsos Mori questioned 1,253 people over three days ending April 20. No margin of error was given. In the April 15 debate, Clegg, 43, labeled Cameron and Brown as representatives of the “old politics,” telling viewers: “The more they attack each other, the more they sound exactly the same.” Yesterday’s Ipsos Mori poll offers some comfort to Cameron. Forty-nine percent said they may change their minds, the highest level since the company began asking the question in 1983. And Liberal Democrat voters were most likely to say so, with 56 percent saying they might, compared with 40 percent of Conservative and 50 percent of Labour voters. “They’ve made their decision on the basis of a 90-minute television program,” said Hawkins. “We know they don’t understand their policies or what they’re voting for.” Unpopular Policies A YouGov Plc poll this week showed 55 percent of those backing the Liberal Democrats oppose party proposals to cede more powers to the European Union, while 53 percent oppose ditching the pound for the euro when conditions are right, which the party also supports. In tonight’s 90-minute debate in Bristol, southwest England, all three leaders may face difficult questions on foreign-policy issues. Brown apologized earlier this year after giving Parliament incorrect figures on funding for troops in Afghanistan and was finance minister when Britain went to war with the U.S. in Iraq. Cameron was criticized by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy , traditional allies of his party, for pulling the Conservatives out of their bloc in the European Parliament. Clegg has drawn fire from the Conservatives for a pledge to scrap the submarine-based Trident nuclear-missile program, saying defense priorities have changed. The Conservative leader benefits from a lower burden of expectations in this debate than he did last time, analysts said. Higher Expectations “For the second debate, with the history of winning the first one, expectations are raised for Clegg,” said Andrew Russell, who teaches politics at Manchester University . “He needs to consolidate.” Cameron found last week, after leading polls for two and a half years, that the biggest threat to a Conservative victory may be the series of televised debates that he first called for in 2007. “If they’d had any idea how the debate would turn out, they’d never have agreed in the first place,” said Mortimore. To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net ; Thomas Penny in London at tpenny@bloomberg.net

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Clegg Says Goldman Sachs Suit Is a Reminder of Bank’s Recklessness, Greed

April 19, 2010

By Eddie Buckle April 20 (Bloomberg) — Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg will say today that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission suit against Goldman Sachs Group Inc. demonstrates the need for “a complete overhaul” of the financial industry. “The allegations about Goldman Sachs are yet another reminder of how reckless and greedy the global banking industry had become,” Clegg will tell a news conference in London today, his party said in a statement. “The great tragedy is that none of that recklessness or greed has yet been stamped out of the City of London, and it is costing jobs and businesses day by day.” Clegg’s party pledged to separate retail and investment banking, introduce a 10 percent levy on bank profits and restrict bonuses if it wins a share of power at the May 6 election. Support for the Liberal Democrats has jumped in polls to rival that of David Cameron ’s Conservatives and Prime Minister Gordon Brown ’s Labour Party, indicating no party will have a majority in the new House of Commons. The SEC said that in early 2007, as the U.S. housing market teetered, Goldman Sachs created and sold a collateralized debt obligation linked to subprime mortgages without disclosing that hedge fund Paulson & Co. helped pick the underlying securities and bet against the vehicle, known as Abacus 2007-AC1. Goldman Sachs has denied wrongdoing and said it would fight the suit. Brown said in an interview yesterday with Bloomberg Television that “what I have seen shows moral bankruptcy on the part of employees” at Goldman. The premier called April 18 for the Financial Services Authority to start an inquiry. To contact the reporter on this story: Eddie Buckle in London at ebuckle@bloomberg.net .

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U.K. Economy Probably Extended Recovery in First Quarter From Record Slump

April 17, 2010

By Jennifer Ryan April 17 (Bloomberg) — The U.K. economy probably extended its recovery from the deepest recession on record in the first quarter, aiding Prime Minister Gordon Brown as he wages an election campaign on pledges to ensure growth. Gross domestic product rose 0.4 percent from the fourth quarter, according to the median forecast of 31 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The increase matches the gain in the last three months of the year, when the six-quarter slump ended. Brown said in the April 15 televised leaders’ debate the “wrong choices” by the next government could lead to a double- dip recession. The ruling Labour Party is trying to close the the opposition Conservatives’ lead in voter opinion polls before the May 6 election as surveys show Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg won the debate. “The most important for the prime minister is that there’s a plus sign in front of the number, because at least then he’ll be able to say the recovery is continuing,” Philip Shaw , an economist at Investec Securities in London, said in a telephone interview. “It will give the electorate something else to focus on and may be one of a cocktail of factors that begins to draw attention away from the leaders’ debates.” The economy probably contracted 0.1 percent from a year earlier, according to a Bloomberg survey of 28 economists. The Office for National Statistics will publish the data at 9:30 a.m. in London on April 23. Support for the Liberal Democrat party rose 3 points to 24 percent after the televised leaders’ debate, according to a ComRes Ltd. survey for ITV. The poll showed support for Labour fell 1 point to 28 percent, and backing for the Conservatives was unchanged at 35 percent. To contact the reporter on this story: Jennifer Ryan in London at jryan13@bloomberg.net

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U.K. Probably Extended Recovery From Recession Last Quarter, Survey Shows

April 17, 2010

By Jennifer Ryan April 17 (Bloomberg) — The U.K. economy probably extended its recovery from the deepest recession on record in the first quarter, aiding Prime Minister Gordon Brown as he wages an election campaign on pledges to ensure growth. Gross domestic product rose 0.4 percent from the fourth quarter, according to the median forecast of 31 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The increase matches the gain in the last three months of the year, when the six-quarter slump ended. Brown said in the April 15 televised leaders’ debate the “wrong choices” by the next government could lead to a double- dip recession. The ruling Labour Party is trying to close the the opposition Conservatives’ lead in voter opinion polls before the May 6 election as surveys show Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg won the debate. “The most important for the prime minister is that there’s a plus sign in front of the number, because at least then he’ll be able to say the recovery is continuing,” Philip Shaw , an economist at Investec Securities in London, said in a telephone interview. “It will give the electorate something else to focus on and may be one of a cocktail of factors that begins to draw attention away from the leaders’ debates.” The economy probably contracted 0.1 percent from a year earlier, according to a Bloomberg survey of 28 economists. The Office for National Statistics will publish the data at 9:30 a.m. in London on April 23. Support for the Liberal Democrat party rose 3 points to 24 percent after the televised leaders’ debate, according to a ComRes Ltd. survey for ITV. The poll showed support for Labour fell 1 point to 28 percent, and backing for the Conservatives was unchanged at 35 percent. To contact the reporter on this story: Jennifer Ryan in London at jryan13@bloomberg.net

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Liberal Democrats Surge in Poll After Clegg Wins U.K. TV Debate

April 16, 2010

By Gonzalo Vina April 17 (Bloomberg) — Support for Britain’s third party, the Liberal Democrats, surged in an opinion poll after its leader, Nick Clegg , was adjudged the winner of a televised debate before the May 6 election. A daily YouGov Plc poll for The Sun showed the Liberal Democrats climbing 8 points to 30 percent, pushing Prime Minister Gordon Brown ’s Labour Party into third place, the newspaper reported last night. The main opposition Conservatives, led by David Cameron , fell 4 points to 33 percent and Labour dropped 3 points to 28 percent. YouGov interviewed 1,290 people yesterday, The Sun said. It gave no margin of error. The increase in support for Clegg’s party is the most significant in any poll since Brown called the vote 10 days ago and indicates that the outcome of the election is more uncertain than ever. Previous polls indicated neither Labour nor the Conservatives were on course for a majority in Parliament and might need the support of the Liberal Democrats or Scottish and Welsh nationalists to form a government. The April 15 debate “has changed the game,” John Curtice , a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, said in a telephone interview. “The Lib Dems are now much more serious players. This is a deeply unpopular government and the opposition hadn’t sealed the deal. Clegg was very effective at exploiting that.” Labour Seats YouGov pollster Anthony Wells said on his Web site last night that, translated into seats in the 650-member House of Commons, the figures would leave Labour the largest party, even though it was third in support levels. Variations in the distribution of party support throughout Britain mean there’s no direct correlation between the popular vote and the number of electoral districts won. “The Lib Dems would have around about 100 seats” using the standard calculations drawn up by academics and pollsters, Wells said. “In reality though, it’s almost impossible to say how this would translate into an election result.” Earlier yesterday, a ComRes Ltd. poll suggested support for the Liberal Democrats rose 3 points after the debate to 24 percent. Backing for the Conservatives was unchanged and Labour fell 1 point to 28 percent. To come to that result, ComRes interviewed 4,032 viewers by telephone after the TV debate and then weighted the results to take into account previous voting intentions and the fact that the event was seen by only around a quarter of the electorate. ‘Clear Win’ The “debate was a clear win on points for Nick Clegg,” said Andrew Hawkins of ComRes, whose instant poll showed 43 percent saying the Liberal Democrat won to 26 percent picking Cameron and 20 percent Brown. “None of the leaders fared particularly badly or made huge mistakes, but it highlighted the challenge Gordon Brown faces in connecting with voters.” Two other instant polls also made Clegg the winner. The Liberal Democrat benefited from greater exposure than a third- party leader normally enjoys as he shared equal time in the 90- minute debate in Manchester, northwest England, the first in a British election campaign. The program attracted 9.4 million viewers, broadcaster ITV said. There were 44 million registered voters as of Dec. 1, according to the Office for National Statistics. “Yesterday’s leaders’ debate was just the start,” Clegg told supporters yesterday in Warrington, near Manchester. “This general election campaign is about fairness, it’s about who you can trust.” ‘Something Different’ Clegg’s message was that he offered a change from the other two parties, which have held power between them for the past 90 years. “The more they attack each other the more they sound exactly the same,” he told the audience at one point. “We can do something different this time.” The prospect of a hung parliament, with the government lacking the strength to attack a record budget deficit , pushed the pound down to as low as $1.5361 from $1.5496 yesterday. Brown focused his fire on Cameron, whose Conservatives have led polls for almost all of his 2 1/2 years as prime minister, emphasizing his own experience and the risk that Cameron’s plans to cut spending might halt a return to economic growth. “I say to the audience and to the nation, it’s important at this moment to take no risk with the recovery,” Brown said. Cameron says his party would shrink the size of the state and would go further and faster than Labour in cutting the deficit. At almost 12 percent of economic output, the shortfall rivals that of Greece’s 13 percent deficit. Two more debates will follow in the next two weeks. “Suddenly we’re in uncharted waters,” The Sun quoted YouGov Chairman Peter Kellner as saying. “The Lib Dem surge throws this election wide open.” To contact the reporter on this story: Gonzalo Vina in London at gvina@bloomberg.net .

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Citizens United Response To Be Very Limited, Will More Meaningful Reforms Follow?

April 16, 2010

When the United States Supreme Court handed down its Citizens United v. FEC ruling in January, it did more to sound the alarm on special interest money in politics than any campaign finance reformer could have dreamed. The first instinct among legislators in responding is to not make the perfect the enemy of the good. But the question still circulating is: how far will that response go? There is some worry that a quick political gesture could very well supplant meaningful, further-reaching policies to address the role money plays in American elections. The legislative response to Citizens United will be limited, yet it could lay the groundwork for ushering in a novel approach to campaign finance going forward: one that bypasses the Roberts Court’s favoritism for the wealthy few by activating the lower- and middle-income many. Of course, this will all depend on the Democratic leadership’s endurance on the issue. Immediately following the Court’s ruling in January, the White House and Democrats in Congress vowed to soften the blow from the decision through whatever means possible. In his weekly radio address, after criticizing the decision during his State of the Union, Barack Obama promised a ” forceful response ” from his administration. And in a conference call to reporters , Senator Charles Schumer dismally warned that, “if we don’t act quickly, this decision will have an immediate and devastating impact on the 2010 elections.” Now, just three months later, Schumer and Congressman Chris Van Hollen intend to follow through on the promises with the formal introduction of a Citizens United fix bill in the coming days. Back in February, the two high-ranking Democrats (Schumer is a former DSCC Chairman and the third ranking Democrat in the Senate; and Van Hollen is the current DCCC Chairman) put forward a preliminary itemized plan to address the effects of Citizens United that would withstand judicial reversal by operating within the legal framework established by the Court in its decision. According to Van Hollen spokeswoman Bridgett Frey, the bill was released early on so as to allow ample time “to incorporate feedback and craft strong legislation that responds to the court’s decision.” The February proposal, which Van Hollen described as a ” right-to-know bill ” — had six major provisions, which included: banning election expenditures from foreign interests and pay-to-play entities, namely government contractors and TARP recipients; enhancing disclaimers to identify the sponsors of ads; enhancing transparency and the public disclosure of political spending; setting clear and affordable rates for political advertising for candidates, especially TV airtime; and prohibiting corporations from coordinating electioneering activities with a candidate or party. The final bill is said to be pretty close to that original framework, minus a provision that would require that corporations increase disclosure of political spending to their shareholders (this is to be included in a separate Financial Services bill instead). Congressional spokespeople tell me that the salient concern is having it withstand further Supreme Court challenges. And while it has yet to garner support from across the aisle, polling suggests that it could be a prime candidate for the long lost art of bipartisanship. The question of whether each element of the bill is susceptible to judicial reversal is a prudent one — and the answer is very much up in the air for some provisions. According to Richard Briffault , Columbia Law School’s Joseph P. Chamberlain Professor of Legislation and a noted authority on the Court’s history of campaign finance rulings, “the bill seems to go to the limit of what Citizens United left open — foreign corps, pay-to-play, disclaimers and disclosure, coordinated expenditures — without crossing the line…[But] the extension of pay-to-play to independent expenditures probably pushes hardest.” Briffault has concerns that certain elements could be difficult to hash out in practice, such as determining whether a firm qualifies as “foreign” enough (the bill sets this at 20% foreign owned, but the controlling interest in a public company isn’t always static), or whether it is legal to impose a new TARP restriction on bailout recipients after they’ve already accepted funds under the original conditions. Moreover, extending the pay-to-play ban on contractors and TARP recipients to independent expenditures could prove problematic, since it is precisely this distinction that Citizens United did away with in the first place. Beyond these possible trip-ups, Briffault sees the Schumer-Van Hollen proposal as instituting only very mild extensions of already existing laws. Other Court followers are even less confident in the proposed bill’s judicial resiliency. For his part, Harvard Law professor Lawrence Lessig , a leading progressive voice in campaign finance matters, sees almost every provision in the proposed legislation as either ineffective window dressing, or as a prime target for the Court to strike down. He tells me, “I think one could not be too strong about this: It is absurd to suggest this is a ‘fix’ to Citizens United. The bans are plain targets for new lawsuits… All and all — [this bill is] a complete zero. And a strong signal of the failure of the Democrats to deliver on the reform promise of this administration.” Lessig is a staunch proponent of the Durbin-Larson Fair Elections Now Act , and for amending the Constitution to give Congress sole power over campaign finance laws. The Fair Elections Act is essentially the “public option” for electoral fundraising. It was introduced in March 2009 by Democratic Party Whip Richard Durbin and then-Republican Senator Arlen Specter and would provide voluntary public campaign financing to candidates who reach a certain dollar amount through small contributions of $100 or less. Once one opts in, he or she receives funding both for the primary and general elections, as well as a few other perks, such as broadcast advertising subsidies. In an essay shortly following the Citizens United ruling, Lessig praised the Fair Elections proposal as a means for providing “an immediate balance to the deluge of corporate funding that this next election will now see. More importantly, it will give candidates a way to fight that deluge without themselves becoming even more dependent upon private, special interest funding. No other reform — including reforms that try effectively to reverse Citizens United — could be as important just now. No other reform should distract us from pushing strongly to get Congress to pass this statute now.” Those crafting the Schumer-Van Hollen bill will tell you that the Fair Elections Act has no chance of making it to the president’s desk at this juncture. Nevertheless, Congressman John Larson , its House-side sponsor and Chairman of the House Democratic caucus, may propose it as an amendment. With 141 co-sponsors in the House, it’s hardly a pipe dream. The problem is in the Senate, where it has but 10 co-sponsors (a list that is noteably lacking Schumer’s name ). It’s not politically unreasonable that the Democratic leadership is proceeding cautiously and in narrow terms. No system is overhauled in a single stroke, and they’re legislating within the parameters of what is admittedly a difficult political environment. The result is that the Schumer-Van Hollen bill will likely be exceedingly limited in its effect on political spending; and most with whom I spoke regard it more as an obligatory political gesture than anything else. Aside from the necessary need to do something , the Democrats’ bill cannot be expected to make a “radical difference in the mix of resources and politics,” Michael Malbin tells me. Malbin, the Executive Director of the nonpartisan Campaign Finance Institute in Washington, DC, sees the Schumer-Van Hollen bill as good in spirit and worth pushing through to the president’s desk, but, ultimately, as a political necessity with only a few very mild, superficial policy benefits. At best, the new regulations may theoretically lend slightly more transparency to the paper trail of campaign monies through more disclosure and the Stand By Your Ad provision for CEOs. But even this is seen as wishful thinking by some. In response to stricter disclosure rules, Lessig points to Marcos Chaman and Ethan Kaplan’s Iceberg Theory of Campaign Contributions [ pdf ], which demonstrates that special interests don’t actually need to run election ads when the mere threat of doing so will suffice. As Lessig notes, “those threats are not disclosed.” This is also an area where Briffault agrees, telling me, “I suppose that some people think that the disclosure and disclaimer requirements … will reduce corporate spending. I doubt that it will. I think the law does as much as the Supreme Court will allow, but for those who think that corporate spending is the problem, this bill won’t and can’t stop that.” Most other provisions in the bill are said to fall similarly short. According to Lessig, the campaign-corporation coordination ban looks good on paper, but is more or less meaningless in the Internet age. The same can be said for the ban on foreign influence. As Loyola Law School professor and author of the Election Law Blog Rick Hasen tells me, there is a trade off between having the bill withstand judicial challenge, on the one hand, and having it provide truly effective regulation on the other. According to Hasen, “if ‘foreign’ corporation is defined broadly, it will be unconstitutional; if defined narrowly, it won’t do much.” For many observers, the worst case scenario is that our political leaders will convince themselves that they have adequately addressed what the Court’s ruling in FEC v. Massachusetts Citizens for Life, Inc. (1986) described as the “corrosive and distorting effects of immense aggregations of wealth that are accumulated with the help of the corporate form and that have little or no correlation to the public’s support for the corporation’s political ideas.” The current political stalemate is quite familiar in the history of the campaign finance debate. The Roberts Court has made it abundantly clear that free speech trumps all else in its rulings. As Briffault wrote in a 2008 Brookings Institution essay , describing the Court’s 2007 ruling in Wisconsin Right to Life v. FEC : ” WRTL also abandoned [the] view that in campaign finance cases the Court should reconcile and balance free speech values with other concerns like political integrity, the promotion of democracy, and respect for Congress’s efforts to balance these goals. Instead, Roberts’s opinion framed the case entirely from a First Amendment perspective. It was not about the rules governing the corporate role in financing elections but simply ‘about political speech.’” **** The foremost misconception — or at least exaggeration — plaguing the Citizens United ruling is that, in the words of President Barack Obama , it “reversed a century of law that I believe will open the floodgates for special interests … to spend without limit in our elections.” This gives the decision too much credit. In reality, the floodgates were already open. During the 2008 Minnesota Senate race between Democratic contender Al Franken and Republican incumbent Norm Coleman , the corporate-funded U.S. Chamber of Commerce ran a television advertisement depicting Franken with duct tape over his mouth. A narrator’s voice came in to say: “High taxes hurt. But it seems like every time Al Franken opens his mouth he talks about raising taxes. This from a guy who was caught not paying his own taxes in 17 states … Maybe he shouldn’t open his mouth … Tell Al Franken that high taxes aren’t very funny.” This ad ran before Citizens United , and it was on the up-and-up in accordance with the Robert Court’s 2007 WRTL decision because it qualified as ” issue advocacy ,” rather than ” express advocacy ” for a specific candidate. Or in other words, the ad was permitted because it did not directly call for a vote for or against Franken. As Lessig has noted, this is the status quo that reversing Citizens United would return us to. Non-party election communications like the Chamber’s Al Franken ad were generally exempt from regulation for decades, from 2002 back to 1976, when the court created the distinction between “issue” and “express” advocacy in its Buckley v. Valeo decision. During that era, whether or not electioneering communications qualified as “express advocacy” — which was subject to regulation — depended on whether they contained the “magic words,” such as vote for/against or elect/reject . In 2002, the McCain-Feingold Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act sought to rein in the special interest spending binge of the 1980s and 1990s with a ban on soft money to the parties, and a ban on corporate electioneering communications within 60 days of a general election (both of which are provisions that the Court actually upheld in its 2003 McConnell v. FEC ruling). However, following John Roberts’ appointment in 2005 , and, more importantly, Samuel Alito’s in 2006 , the Court transitioned back to narrowing the grounds for regulation and opening the door for independent political spending. In its 2006 Randall v. Sorrell decision the Court struck down Vermont’s attempt to regulate campaign contribution limits. And in WRTL v. FEC the Court did away with McCain-Feingold’s corporate and union electioneering communication provision — thus re-allowing corporations and unions to run “issue advocacy” ads, as long as their only reasonable interpretation wasn’t as an “appeal to vote for or against a candidate.” When people like the president say that Citizens United opened the “floodgates,” what they mean is that corporations (and unions) no longer have to worry about the “issue advocacy” vs. “express advocacy” distinction. The Chamber of Commerce can now run an ad that says, “Vote for Candidate A,” instead of “Tell Candidate A that high taxes aren’t very funny.” Whether or not there actually will be a flood of corporate expenditures in the upcoming November election is yet to be seen. For his part, Malbin doesn’t think this will be the case, telling me, “I don’t think most for-profit corporations are likely to increase their public affairs budget because of Citizens United . They will probably just move money around within that already existing budget.” This suggests that some corporations may indeed indulge in the lesser restrictions, but that they won’t break the bank doing so. With the dual standoff between a deregulatory Court on the one hand (Justice Stevens’ retirement will not alter the liberal-conservative composition of the Court), and a demonstrably obstructionist and anti-regulation Congressional opposition on the other, any promising path forward for the Democratic leadership would seem elusive. Nevertheless, there is a novel approach among serious thinkers across the ideological and political spectrum that is increasingly gaining traction among Members of Congress and the administration. Rather than battling the inexorable stream of political money from the wealthy few, the answer, according to some, may lie in addressing the other side of the equation: the middle- and lower-income “many.” Malbin is one of the experts pushing for this new approach to campaign finance. He looks at the history of Supreme Court rulings on the matter, the failure of restrictive legislative measures to truly stymie the flow of special interest money into elections and politics (there are always ways around restrictive laws, he points out), and the burden on non-wealthy or knowledgeable participants to navigate the sea of complex regulations and concludes that past campaign finance reform efforts have approached the situation from the wrong side. Along with Anthony Corrado of Colby College, Thomas Mann of the Brookings Institution , and Norman Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute-Brookings Election Reform Project , Malbin is the co-author of a paradigm-shifting report published this year — ” Reform in an Age of Networked Campaigns ” — that advocates “activating the many” instead of “focusing on attempts to further restrict the wealthy few.” The authors put faith in the notion that “if enough people come into the system at the low end there may be less reason to worry about the top.” A central proposal of the report’s reform recommendations is a public financing option very similar to the Durbin-Larson Fair Elections Act. But there are also other policy measures for incentivizing small-scale donor participation that could garner wider support in the aftermath of Schumer-Van Hollen. One is to make broadband access affordable to all. Having demonstrated the profound effect of the Internet and social networking on electioneering during the 2008 presidential campaign, this is something the Obama administration is already working on this with its National Broadband Plan . Alongside broadband access is a policy goal nebulously known as ” network neutrality ,” which advocates the regulation of Internet providers whose service would possibly discriminate against certain political or issue speech that threatens the company’s interests. These efforts suffered a blow recently with a D.C. Circuit Appeals Court ruling that will now limit the FCC’s authority to regulate Web traffic . However, if policy changes are made to reclassify Internet access as a “telecommunications service” instead of an “information service” then the FCC could regain some of its lost authority. Malbin and his colleagues also call for a central government website to host, “all electorally relevant material about political spending that is required to be disclosed under current law,” and for States and the federal government to provide free software to facilitate electronic disclosure filings that would be made immediately available to the public. Despite hefty corporate and special interest resistance, ideas like these are trudging steadily forward in campaign finance policy discussions. The Schumer-Val Hollen bill does seek to enhance corporate disclosure, but the efficacy of these measures would increase dramatically if this information were to be made more readily accessible to the general public through a central online clearinghouse. But even if stricter disclosure regulations are accepted to be an effective deterrent, they still don’t do anything “to radically change things one way or the other,” Malbin says. According to Malbin, the only ultimately effective counterbalance to corporate and special interest spending in elections is an expansion of the playing field to include “the many.” For example, Malbin tells me that in most states it would only take 4 or 5 percent of the electorate giving $50 each to introduce meaningful balance to elections for Governor and the State legislature. He has the numbers to prove it. Policy measures as simple as rebates or tax refunds for low-income donors, individual contributions limits to give small-scale donors more weight against the wealthiest, and publicly funded contribution matching that applies only to small donations have all demonstrated promise for successful implementation. A new interactive tool on the Campaign Finance Institute website puts some to the test. Using data from the 2006 election cycle, with the state of New York as an example, if the government matches small donations ($100 or less) at a rate of 3-to-1, it more than doubles the distribution of contributions from this donor group from 4 percent to 10 percent. When public contribution matching only for small donations increases to 5-to-1 the percentage of $100 or less funders more than triples, from 4 percent to 14 percent. And when a 5-to-1 public matching only for small donations is complemented by a $2,000 individual contribution limit, the percentage of $100 or less funders more than quadruples, from 4 percent to 17 percent. Malbin tells me that these ideas to activate and engage “the many” are beginning to take hold alongside the traditional instinct to just construct more temporary walls. Most campaign finance proposals in the past year and a half — including the Durbin-Larson Fair Elections Act — are looking more towards implementing this approach. However, the Schumer-Van Hollen response to Citizens United does not. It’s far more politically tailored to the immediate outrage since January and intentionally forgoes pushing larger, more reformative measures. For his part, Malbin sees this as an understandable approach, telling me, “I don’t think anybody would look at the Senate right now and think they could get 60 votes to pass [something like] the Fair Elections Act this year.” Nevertheless, he sees Schumer-Van Hollen — and the likely floor vote on Larson’s Fair Elections amendment especially — as at least a symbolic political gesture. If the Democratic leadership continues forward with corollary efforts — such as for affordable broadband access, network neutrality, and a streamlined electronic disclosure process; and if Members in Congress continue to hone policy proposals and political rhetoric towards incentivizing small donors instead of continuing the endless corporate/special interest regulatory chase, then the future could be brighter than what many cynics would have one believe. The Internet — and social networking especially — has broken down traditional barriers to accessing information and propounding ideas more thoroughly than any other factor in modern history. The new media elements operative in Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential victory will only matter increasingly more going forward, regardless of whether the Supreme Court continues to open more doors for corporate electioneering. And even in today’s intractable political climate, measures that supplant what is seen as plutocracy with democracy can be sold to both sides of the aisle (as the presence of moderate figures like Specter and retiring centrist Senator Evan Bayh on the Fair Elections sponsor list suggests). The slowly growing consensus among those who are actually in a position to return balance to American elections bodes well for the voice of the “many,” at least in the long run. But they will likely need political diligence and constant reminders to see it through.

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Cameron Poll Drop Means Pressure on Him to `Deliver’ in First U.K. Debate

April 14, 2010

By Kitty Donaldson and Robert Hutton April 15 (Bloomberg) — Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Conservative David Cameron meet tonight in a televised debate that injects a novel element into U.K. politics and gives them a chance to reshape the closest election campaign since 1992. Neither Brown, described as “charismatic” by only 2 percent of respondents in a poll this month, nor Cameron has enough support to win a majority in the May 6 vote, surveys show. Cameron, who in September 2008 held a lead of as much as 28 percentage points during Britain’s longest recession since World War II, has failed to keep it in double digits this year. “The tightening of the polls over the past week puts an awful lot of pressure on Cameron to deliver,” said Andrew Hawkins , chairman of ComRes Ltd., whose latest poll put the gap at six points. “It needs to be the performance of his life.” While Brown and Cameron are used to sparring in the House of Commons, a televised debate, a staple of U.S. campaigns since 1960, has never featured in the U.K. Tonight’s debate, which also includes Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg , will be followed by two more on April 22 and April 29. “This is a turning point in British politics,” said Ivor Gaber , professor of political reporting at London’s City University. “It’s now inconceivable that we would ever have another election without debates.” Clegg Bounce The man with the most to gain may be Clegg, 43. He’s getting equal treatment with the other two leaders, helped by laws that require broadcasters to treat all parties fairly during an election. “Clegg is the one with most to win,” said Charles Pattie, a geography professor at the University of Sheffield . “Cameron and Brown have something to be nervous about, as both could do quite a lot of damage to themselves.” After months of negotiations between the parties and the broadcasters, 76 rules have been agreed on for the three 90- minute sessions. The audience, selected by pollsters ICM Ltd. to be politically balanced and to ask the questions, will be allowed to applaud only at the start and end. The debates have changed the shape of the campaign. Brown has spent the past two nights at his “debate camp,” the Radisson Hotel in Leeds, 40 miles (65 kilometers) from Manchester in northern England, where tonight’s event will take place. Helping him prepare is Michael Sheehan , who worked with Bill and Hillary Clinton . Campbell Plays Cameron In rehearsals, Alastair Campbell , the communications chief of Brown’s predecessor Tony Blair , has been playing the part of Cameron, while an aide pretends to be Clegg. The team in the room includes Business Secretary Peter Mandelson and election coordinator Douglas Alexander . For both Cameron and Brown, wardrobe advice comes from their wives. Samantha Cameron is a professional designer, and Sarah Brown founded a public relations firm. Cameron has prepared with his culture spokesman, Jeremy Hunt , playing the part of Clegg, while immigration spokesman Damian Green portrayed Brown. “Both Brown and Cameron have ‘Jekyll and Hyde possibilities’, character pluses and potential flaws which may be highlighted,” said Pattie, who specializes in electoral behavior. “Cameron needs to be normal and accessible, but also needs to be seen as prime ministerial, not lightweight.” Personalities Polls on personalities point to a reason for the closeness of the race as the U.K. emerges from the longest and deepest economic recession since World War II. A survey by YouGov Plc on April 11-12 found Brown, 59, described as “charismatic” by 2 percent of respondents and “a natural leader” by 4 percent, to Cameron’s 42 percent and 25 percent. When it came to sticking to his beliefs and being good in a crisis, Brown scored 36 percent and 20 percent, twice the 18 percent and 9 percent garnered by Cameron, 43. “We know that people loathe Brown and think it’s time for a change, but they’re not particularly sold on Cameron being that change,” YouGov pollster Anthony Wells said. A ComRes poll for broadcaster ITV News and The Independent newspaper yesterday put the Tories on 35 percent and Labour on 29 percent. The Liberal Democrats got 21 percent. Should that play out, the Conservatives would be 40 seats short of a majority, according to an e-mail from ComRes. A separate YouGov poll for The Sun put the Conservatives ahead by 41 percent to 32 percent, still probably not enough for an outright win. Labour and the Tories are targeting about 150 voting districts that they have identified as so-called swing seats, ones not traditionally dominated by one party and with everything to play for. That’s 23 percent of a total of 650. The Undecided Half the people likely to watch the debates said they could influence how they vote, according to the poll by ComRes. Public indecision has made it the tightest race since 1992, when the Conservatives under John Major won a fourth straight election after convincing voters that Labour wasn’t equipped to guide the economy through a recovery. In a less tightly controlled debate on March 29 between finance spokesmen, it was the Liberal Democrat Vince Cable who scored the most laughs and applause from the audience. That show earned Channel Four 1.8 million viewers, almost doubling the audience it would receive on a regular Monday night, a spokeswoman for the television channel said. The BBC’s long- running soap opera Eastenders, aired at the same time as the debate, scored 9.4 million viewers. David Chapman, landlord of The Albion pub in Hackney, north London, will screen the debate live. “It definitely wasn’t a commercial decision to show the debates,” said Chapman, 60, who has run the hostelry for 13 years. “I’m not sure how many people will come. It may even attract fewer punters.” To contact the reporters on this story: Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net ; Robert Hutton in Leeds, England, at rhutton1@bloomberg.net .

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Failure of U.K. Campaign to Force Overnight Vote Counting May Roil Markets

April 13, 2010

By Kitty Donaldson and Robert Hutton April 13 (Bloomberg) — A campaign by lawmakers to force all votes in the May 6 U.K. general election to be counted overnight has failed, meaning the result may still be unclear before European financial markets open the following day. Final figures released by the Electoral Commission yesterday showed 95 percent of electoral districts saying they will count votes on the night, up from two thirds in January, after complaints that delays might roil the markets. That still leaves 34 of the 650 seats counting the next day, including seven the Conservatives need if they’re to win a majority in Parliament over Prime Minister Gordon Brown ’s Labour Party. “If it is a very close election we may still not be sure of the result in the morning,” Philip Cowley , professor of politics at Nottingham University, said in an interview. “But we should have a pretty good idea by the early hours.” Polls suggest the U.K. is heading for a hung Parliament with no party in overall control. Results that are typically available by about 3 a.m. may now not be clear until noon the following day, with the potential to send prices swinging on partial tallies as traders bet on the outcome of what may be the closest election in 18 years. An ICM poll for the Guardian newspaper released last night showed the Conservative lead over Labour at six percentage points, while a ComRes Ltd. poll for ITN News and The Independent put the lead at seven points, both pointing to a hung Parliament. Seat Calculations According to calculations done previously by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of Plymouth University’s Elections Unit, such a result would leave the Conservatives barely ahead of Labour in Parliament, with 283 seats to 273. Neither would have the 326 needed for an outright majority. The need for local governments to save money and new rules were among the reasons prompting districts to delay counting votes until the day after the election. Among those that won’t count on the night are Westmorland and Lonsdale in northwest England, a district currently held by the Liberal Democrats that the Conservatives are targeting. Others include Lancaster and Fleetwood and North West Leicestershire, which the Conservatives are aiming to take from Labour. Lawmakers pushed districts not to delay the count, with Justice Secretary Jack Straw saying there is “no good reason” why the vast majority of counts cannot take place on the night. In 1992, Conservative Prime Minister John Major ’s surprise victory over Labour pushed long-dated gilt futures up 3 percent between the close on polling day and the markets’ opening the next day. Trading volume the day after the election exceeded the combined total of the four preceding days. Then, the result was clear by 3:30 a.m. and the benchmark FTSE-100 stock index opened up 5 percent. To contact the reporter on this story: Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net or Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net ;

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Brown Calls British Election for May 6 as Polls Suggest a Hung Parliament

April 6, 2010

By Robert Hutton and Kitty Donaldson April 6 (Bloomberg) — British Prime Minister Gordon Brown will today call an election for May 6, setting up his first nationwide test as U.K. leader in a ballot that may fail to result in a governing majority. The 59-year-old premier arrived at Buckingham Palace at about 10 a.m. to ask Queen Elizabeth II to dissolve Parliament April 12, enabling him to call the vote. He’ll then announce the election at his 10 Downing St. residence in London. The pound weakened 0.7 percent as an ICM Ltd. poll late yesterday showed Brown trailing by 4 percentage points, enough to make Labour the biggest party in the House of Commons. In contrast, Conservative opposition leader David Cameron ’s poll lead over Labour, which he’s held since late 2007, widened to 10 points from 2 points last month, according to YouGov Plc. “I’m struggling to think of a modern election when we’ve had this degree of uncertainty,” said Stephen Driver , who teaches politics at Roehampton University. “It’s going to see- saw backward and forward far more than previous elections. People want a change but they’re anxious about change as well.” The vote may determine how quickly Britain reduces a record budget deficit and trims a national debt that is set to almost double. Brown says curbing spending too quickly risks a “double-dip” recession. The Conservatives plan immediate cuts. If the election fails to result in either party having a majority, the first so-called hung parliament in 36 years, economists and investors say it might be too weak to fix the U.K.’s finances and may put the top-grade credit rating at risk. ‘Hate Uncertainty’ “The markets hate the uncertainty of the possibility of a hung parliament or the possibility of the political parties having to work in a coalition,” said Mark Wickham-Jones , professor of politics at Bristol University . “If no one is in overall control, it will make cutting the deficit difficult because the politics will push it to one side.” The pound has fallen 23 percent against the dollar since Brown took office almost three years ago, weakening today to as low as $1.5169. More Britons dropped out of the labor market in the three months to January than at any time since records began in 1971. Labor unions have stepped up strikes, with cabin crew at British Airways Plc walking off their jobs last month. Labour has governed Britain since 1997, when Tony Blair unseated John Major , ending the Conservatives’ 18-year run that began with Margaret Thatcher ’s election. Brown, Blair’s finance minister, replaced his boss in June 2007. ‘Road to Recovery’ “The people of this country have fought too hard to get Britain on the road to recovery to allow anybody to take us back on the road to recession,” Brown will say today, according to excerpts released by his office. In the first three months of the year, Brown closed a gap in the opinion polls since a survey in September 2008 — during Britain’s longest recession on record — showed him trailing by as much as 28 percentage points. On Feb. 28, a YouGov poll had him 2 points behind. The Conservatives have widened their lead since then after saying it would cancel most of a payroll-tax increase proposed by Brown. Imbalances in the distribution of votes mean vote share doesn’t automatically translate into seats, as Labour benefits from lower turnouts in its districts. Calculations by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher , professors of politics at Plymouth University’s Elections Unit, suggest the Conservatives would have a two-seat majority, based on the 41 percent to 31 percent lead in a YouGov poll in today’s Sun. ICM Poll Labour would have the largest bloc if ICM’s numbers, which has Brown’s party trailing by 33 percent to 37 percent, prove correct, 10 seats short of a majority. A hung parliament in which no party has a majority might leave the government dependent on the third party, the Liberal Democrats , or Scottish and Welsh nationalists. “It’s going to be a tight election,” Cameron said April 4. “We are fighting for an overall majority, we think that will be best for Britain. We think a hung Parliament will be damaging, the uncertainty will be bad for Britain.” Brown’s term has been marked by setbacks: a last-moment retreat after signaling he would call an early election in 2007; the reversal of a tax increase on low-wage earners; a warning from Standard and Poor’s that Britain’s top-grade credit rating was at risk because debt might reach 100 percent of gross domestic product; failed mutinies by Labour lawmakers and the deepest global economic slump since the Great Depression. Financial Crisis While Brown won plaudits for helping forge a coordinated global response to the financial crisis — Nobel laureate Paul Krugman suggested Brown had “saved the world” by preventing a run on banks — Cameron has criticized his economic management. The deficit — forecast by Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling in his budget March 24 to reach 163 billion pounds in the year through March 2011, or 11.1 percent of gross domestic product, — became a flashpoint even before the official start of the campaign. While Darling reduced planned borrowing, he gave no details of how Labour plans to cut the deficit, beyond saying there would be efficiency savings, amounting in 2012-13 to 11 billion pounds out of total spending of 730 billion pounds. Conservative Treasury spokesman George Osborne said March 29 his party would cut spending by 6 billion pounds immediately and cancel part of a proposed employment-tax increase. U.K. government bonds have returned 1.5 percent this year, compared with a 1 percent gain for U.S. Treasuries and a 2.8 percent advance for German bonds, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch indexes. Gilts ‘Vulnerable’ The gilt market will remain “vulnerable to further bouts of volatility” until there’s clarity on the deficit-reduction plan, Michael Amey , who oversees U.K. fixed income in London at Pacific Investment Management Co., said after the budget. “The last years taught investors not to take guidance on ‘intentions’ as a guarantee of future action.” The Conservatives have pledged to undo many of Brown’s changes to financial regulation, which they say failed to prevent the collapse of several banks. They would make the Bank of England the main regulator, incorporating the Financial Services Authority. Brown frequently says his background as the son of a Church of Scotland minister underpins his political views, giving him a sense of morality, a duty to help the poor and a strong work ethic. A graduate of Edinburgh University, he entered Parliament in 1983. After Blair took power in 1997, Brown remained chancellor and premier-in-waiting for 10 years. Rawnsley’s Book The prime minister’s time in office has seen repeated accusations about his character, and in February he denied allegations in a book by journalist Andrew Rawnsley that he had bullied members of his staff and instructed officials to undermine Darling. Still, the prime minister has hurled pens and even a stapler at aides, according to one official, who said last year Brown had once shoved a laser printer off a desk in a rage. Brown said in an interview March 26 Darling would stay in office if Labour wins. Since becoming Conservative leader in 2005, Cameron has worked to shake off criticism that his upbringing means he doesn’t understand ordinary people’s concerns. The son of a stockbroker, he went to Eton, Britain’s most famous private school . Cameron, 43, a former director of corporate affairs at London-based media company Carlton Communications Plc, has been a lawmaker since 2001. If he wins, he’ll be the youngest premier since the Earl of Liverpool in 1812. ‘Black Wednesday’ Before becoming a member of Parliament, one of Cameron’s jobs was as an adviser to Norman Lamont , who was chancellor on Sept. 16, 1992, “Black Wednesday,” when the U.K. withdrew from Europe’s exchange-rate mechanism after spending 27 billion pounds in a doomed effort to halt a run on the pound. There’s been only one hung parliament in Britain since World War II. That was in February 1974, when Conservative Prime Minister Edward Heath called a snap election after a strike by coal miners seeking higher pay led to power shortages, and the government put the country on a three-day working week. Even though the Conservatives won the largest share of the vote, Harold Wilson ’s Labour Party took most seats. Heath attempted to stay in power and held unsuccessful talks on forming a coalition with the Liberal Party. He resigned four days after the vote, allowing Wilson to form a minority government that lasted until new elections in November. To contact the reporters on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net ; Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net

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Brown Set to Call May 6 British Election as Polls Indicate Hung Parliament

April 5, 2010

By Robert Hutton and Kitty Donaldson April 6 (Bloomberg) — British Prime Minister Gordon Brown will today call an election for May 6, setting up his first nationwide test as U.K. leader in a ballot that may fail to result in a governing majority. The 59-year-old premier will travel to Buckingham Palace at about 10 a.m. to ask Queen Elizabeth II to dissolve Parliament, enabling him to call the vote, campaign aides with Brown’s Labour Party said. He’ll then make the announcement at his 10 Downing St. residence in London. Conservative opposition leader David Cameron ’s poll lead over Labour, which he’s held since late 2007, widened to 10 percentage points from 2 points last month, according to YouGov Plc. In contrast, an ICM Ltd. poll published late yesterday showed Brown trailing by 4 points, enough to make Labour the biggest party in the House of Commons. “I’m struggling to think of a modern election when we’ve had this degree of uncertainty,” said Stephen Driver , who teaches politics at Roehampton University. “It’s going to see- saw backward and forward far more than previous elections. People want a change but they’re anxious about change as well.” The vote may determine how quickly Britain reduces a record budget deficit and trims a national debt that is set to almost double. Brown says curbing spending too quickly risks a “double-dip” recession. The Conservatives plan immediate cuts. If the election fails to result in either party having a majority, the first so-called hung parliament in 36 years, economists and investors say it might be too weak to fix the U.K.’s finances and may put the top-grade credit rating at risk. ‘Hate Uncertainty’ “The markets hate the uncertainty of the possibility of a hung parliament or the possibility of the political parties having to work in a coalition,” said Mark Wickham-Jones , professor of politics at Bristol University . “If no one is in overall control, it will make cutting the deficit difficult because the politics will push it to one side.” The pound has fallen 23 percent against the dollar since Brown took office almost three years ago, and more Britons dropped out of the labor market in the three months to January than at any time since records began in 1971. Labor unions have stepped up strikes, with cabin crew at British Airways Plc walking off their jobs last month. Labour has governed Britain since 1997, when Tony Blair unseated John Major , ending the Conservatives’ 18-year run that began with Margaret Thatcher ’s election. Brown, Blair’s finance minister, replaced his boss in June 2007. ‘Road to Recovery’ “The people of this country have fought too hard to get Britain on the road to recovery to allow anybody to take us back on the road to recession,” Brown will say today, according to excerpts released by his office. In the first three months of the year, Brown closed a gap in the opinion polls since a survey in September 2008 — during Britain’s longest recession on record — showed him trailing by as much as 28 percentage points. On Feb. 28, a YouGov poll had him 2 points behind. The Conservatives have widened their lead since then after saying it would cancel most of a payroll-tax increase proposed by Brown. Imbalances in the distribution of votes mean vote share doesn’t automatically translate into seats, as Labour benefits from lower turnouts in its districts. Calculations by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher , professors of politics at Plymouth University’s Elections Unit, suggest the Conservatives would have a two-seat majority, based on the 41 percent to 31 percent lead in a YouGov poll in today’s Sun. Labour would have the largest bloc if ICM’s numbers, which has Brown’s party trailing by 33 percent to 37 percent, prove correct, 10 seats short of a majority. A hung parliament in which no party has a majority might leave the government dependent on the third party, the Liberal Democrats , or Scottish and Welsh nationalists. ‘Tight Election’ “It’s going to be a tight election,” Cameron said April 4. “We are fighting for an overall majority, we think that will be best for Britain. We think a hung Parliament will be damaging, the uncertainty will be bad for Britain.” Brown’s term has been marked by setbacks: a last-moment retreat after signaling he would call an early election in 2007; the reversal of a tax increase on low-wage earners; a warning from Standard and Poor’s that Britain’s top-grade credit rating was at risk because debt might reach 100 percent of gross domestic product; failed mutinies by Labour lawmakers and the deepest global economic slump since the Great Depression. While Brown won plaudits for helping forge a coordinated global response to the financial crisis — Nobel laureate Paul Krugman suggested Brown had “saved the world” by preventing a run on banks — Cameron has criticized his economic management. Darling’s Deficit The deficit — forecast by Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling in his budget March 24 to reach 163 billion pounds in the year through March 2011, or 11.1 percent of gross domestic product, — became a flashpoint even before the official start of the campaign. While Darling reduced planned borrowing, he gave no details of how Labour plans to cut the deficit, beyond saying there would be efficiency savings, amounting in 2012-13 to 11 billion pounds out of total spending of 730 billion pounds. Conservative Treasury spokesman George Osborne said March 29 his party would cut spending by 6 billion pounds immediately and cancel part of a proposed employment-tax increase. U.K. government bonds have returned 1.5 percent this year, compared with a 1 percent gain for U.S. Treasuries and a 2.8 percent advance for German bonds, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch indexes. The gilt market will remain “vulnerable to further bouts of volatility” until there’s clarity on the deficit-reduction plan, Michael Amey , who oversees U.K. fixed income in London at Pacific Investment Management Co., said after the budget. “The last years taught investors not to take guidance on ‘intentions’ as a guarantee of future action.” Bank of England The Conservatives have pledged to undo many of Brown’s changes to financial regulation, which they say failed to prevent the collapse of several banks. They would make the Bank of England the main regulator, incorporating the Financial Services Authority. Brown frequently says his background as the son of a Church of Scotland minister underpins his political views, giving him a sense of morality, a duty to help the poor and a strong work ethic. A graduate of Edinburgh University, he entered Parliament in 1983. After Blair took power in 1997, Brown remained chancellor and premier-in-waiting for 10 years. The prime minister’s time in office has seen repeated accusations about his character, and in February he denied allegations in a book by journalist Andrew Rawnsley that he had bullied members of his staff and instructed officials to undermine Darling. Laser Printer Still, the prime minister has hurled pens and even a stapler at aides, according to one official, who said last year Brown had once shoved a laser printer off a desk in a rage. Brown said in an interview March 26 Darling would stay in office if Labour wins. Since becoming Conservative leader in 2005, Cameron has worked to shake off criticism that his upbringing means he doesn’t understand ordinary people’s concerns. The son of a stockbroker, he went to Eton, Britain’s most famous private school . Cameron, 43, a former director of corporate affairs at London-based media company Carlton Communications Plc, has been a lawmaker since 2001. If he wins, he’ll be the youngest premier since the Earl of Liverpool in 1812. ‘Black Wednesday’ Before becoming a member of Parliament, one of Cameron’s jobs was as an adviser to Norman Lamont , who was chancellor on Sept. 16, 1992, “Black Wednesday,” when the U.K. withdrew from Europe’s exchange-rate mechanism after spending 27 billion pounds in a doomed effort to halt a run on the pound. There’s been only one hung parliament in Britain since World War II. That was in February 1974, when Conservative Prime Minister Edward Heath called a snap election after a strike by coal miners seeking higher pay led to power shortages, and the government put the country on a three-day working week. Even though the Conservatives won the largest share of the vote, Harold Wilson ’s Labour Party took most seats. Heath attempted to stay in power and held unsuccessful talks on forming a coalition with the Liberal Party. He resigned four days after the vote, allowing Wilson to form a minority government that lasted until new elections in November. To contact the reporters on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net ; Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net

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Stocks, Commodities Rise, Treasuries Drop on Economic Data

April 5, 2010

By Whitney Kisling and Matthew Brown April 5 (Bloomberg) — Stocks and commodities rose, while the dollar and Treasuries fell, as growth in American jobs and service industries boosted optimism the world’s largest economy is strengthening. Treasury yields were the highest since June. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.7 percent to 1,186.75 at 11:08 a.m. in New York, above its highest close since September 2008. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose to the highest level in more than 19 months, driven by Japan. Oil and copper rose to at least 17-month highs. The dollar fell against 11 of 16 major counterparts and the yield on the benchmark 10- year Treasury note increased 5 basis points to 3.99 percent. U.S. payrolls gained last month by the most in three years, a “solid report” indicating “the economy is now creating jobs,” Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Industry reports today showed that pending home sales unexpectedly increased and the Institute for Supply Management’s index of service industries topped economists’ estimates. “Overall, we are seeing positive signs about the global economy,” said Hiroaki Muto , a senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co., which manages $111 billion. “While developing nations are leading global growth, they are waiting for the U.S. to rebound. Recent reports are suggesting that the U.S. labor market and consumer spending are improving.” Markets in Europe, Australia, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan and New Zealand were shut for holidays. Apple Inc. rose 0.5 percent to $237.21 after saying it sold more than 300,000 iPads on the device’s first day of availability over the weekend. Energy Rally Exxon Mobil Corp. and Schlumberger Ltd. paced gains in 39 of 40 energy stocks in the S&P 500 as crude oil climbed as much as 2 percent to a 17-month high of $86.57 a barrel in New York. Brazil’s Bovespa index of equities increased 0.6 percent as Petroleo Brasileiro SA and OGX Petroleo & Gas Participacoes SA advanced. Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.4 percent as Suncor Energy Inc. and Barrick Gold Corp. gained. Oil prices have established a floor of $75 a barrel and there is no need for OPEC to increase production, Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said April 2. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pumps about 40 percent of the world’s oil and slashed output in January 2009 to prevent a glut. The group left its production targets unchanged when ministers met in Vienna on March 17. Venezuela, the group’s sixth-largest producer, is seeking a price band between $80 and $100 a barrel, Ramirez told reporters in Caracas on April 2. Copper, Hogs Copper for May delivery advanced as much as 1.2 percent to $3.6265 a pound in New York, the highest level since Aug. 1, 2008. Hog futures rose, extending a rally to the highest price since in almost 13 years. Hog futures for June settlement gained 1.6 cents, or 1.9 percent, to 84.975 cents a pound on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the highest for a most-active contract since May 12, 1997. A benchmark indicator of U.S. corporate credit risk fell to the lowest in more than two weeks. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index Series 14, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, declined 1.1 basis point to a mid-price of 84 basis points as of 7:51 a.m. in New York, according to Markit Group Ltd. The index dropped to its lowest since March 18, when it was 83.98 basis points, CMA DataVision prices show. Shares of Canon Inc. , which gets 28 percent of its revenue in the Americas, climbed 2.5 percent in Tokyo. Toyota Motor Corp. , which derives 31 percent of its revenue in North America, increased 1.1 percent. ‘Growth Optimism’ Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said yesterday on ABC’s “This Week” that the chances the U.S. economy will retrench after recovering from the worst recession since the 1930s “have fallen very significantly in the last two months.” “There is increasing growth optimism now given that the job situation in the U.S. is getting a little more relaxed,” said Roger Groebli , Singapore-based head of financial-market analysis at LG Capital Management, part of the group that oversees $84 billion. “Exporters will benefit from that.” Samsung, Hynix Climb Samsung Electronics Co. rose 1.5 percent after Maeil Business Newspaper said the company will add a new semiconductor chip line. Asia’s biggest chipmaker also rose after the price of the benchmark DDR2 dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, chip rose on April 2, ending a four-day decline, according to Dramexchange Technology Inc. Hynix Semiconductor Inc. , the world’s second-largest computer-memory chipmaker, advanced 3.4 percent. Malaysia’s FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index rose 0.4 percent, advancing for a 10th day, the longest winning streak in 16 years. CIMB Group Holdings Bhd. , Malaysia’s second-biggest bank, climbed 1.1 percent to a record. The company said the size of its initial share sale for its dual listing on the Thai exchange has been raised to as much as 50 million shares from 35 million. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index, Asia’s best-performing major market this year, climbed to a record on expectations the central bank will keep interest rates at a record low tomorrow, helping to boost the economy. The Jakarta Composite index jumped 2 percent to 2,887.246, above its previous record close of 2,830.26 on Jan. 9, 2008. The measure has climbed 14 percent this year as the central bank raised its economic growth forecast and Standard & Poor’s upgraded the nation’s sovereign debt ratings. Yen, Pound The dollar fell the most against the Canadian and British currencies, losing 0.8 percent and 0.6 percent respectively. The yen snapped four days of losses against the dollar, on speculation Japanese exporters bought the nation’s currency after it touched a seven-month low. The pound gained versus all major counterparts after polls eased concerns that political turmoil will derail the nation’s economic recovery. The pound rallied after a YouGov Plc poll for the Sunday Times showed that the opposition Conservative Party holds a 10 percent lead over Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s Labour party, before elections that are likely to be held next month. The Conservatives have 39 percent of the vote, while Labour had 29 percent and the Liberal Democrats 20 percent, the survey showed, reducing the likelihood that they will fail to win the parliamentary majority that some think is necessary to tackle the U.K.’s budget deficit, the largest in the Group of 20 nations. The pound strengthened 0.6 percent to $1.5293. ‘Heading Toward Stabilization’ A survey for the Sunday Express newspaper by Canadian pollsters Angus Reid put the Conservatives at 38 percent, 11 points ahead of Labour’s 27 percent, with the Liberal Democrats at 20 percent. “The polls seem to suggest that the U.K. political situation is gradually heading toward stabilization,” said Toshiya Yamauchi , senior currency analyst in Tokyo at online currency trading company Ueda Harlow Ltd. “Signs of political stabilization, combined by waning expectations for additional quantitative monetary measures amid the plethora of positive data, will support the currency.” To contact the reporters for this story: Whitney Kisling in New York at wkisling@bloomberg.net ; Matthew Brown in London at mbrown42@bloomberg.net .

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