life-insurance

Saving, Not Spending, For the Holiday

by Catherine New on December 21, 2011

Huffington Post…

FLUSHING, N.Y. — On the Wednesday morning before Christmas, there were no fir trees for sale in New York City’s Flushing, Queens. The sidewalks were packed with people preparing for the holidays other ways: making deposits at the bank, buying pomegranates and holiday cakes at the grocer, and meeting friends at restaurants. In Flushing, a predominantly Asian-American neighborhood that is a 30-minute subway ride outside of Manhattan, yuletide decorations were sporadically placed and the shopping was modest, but the mood was festive. The religious holiday — hyped up in most parts of the United States with retail promotions, Santa Claus imagery and Christmas carols — is secondary here to the real celebration coming up: two consecutive shortened work weeks. “For many people it’s more like a family holiday. It’s not a religious day,” said Martin Lu, manager at New York Life Insurance, which is located in the central intersection of the neighborhood. “It’s time off of work.” Lu added that the unemployment rate was low and many residents work hard in the city’s restaurants or other service-industries leading up to the holidays, and that underscored the heightened anticipation for a day or two off for Christmas and New Year’s. Beneath the buzz of daily life and vacation prep, two local financial institutions painted a clearer picture of how the year’s economy was also affecting the holiday sentiment. The insurance business has been busy in recent weeks, said Lu, as customers, who are mostly Chinese, invested in whole-life policies and education funds to build savings and security for their families. He said the insurance business had grown significantly over the last year as customers — including a wave of new immigrants from Asia — trended increasingly toward savings rather than spending. Lu said that a higher savings rate and high employment rate has, in some ways, buffered the community from some of the economic woes of the last year. “My feeling is that they have savings, and don’t spend too much,” he said. Six blocks away at Union Pawn, a different facet of the economy showed its face. The lender is doing steady business in pawn loans to small business operators to help them with cash flow and to make payroll, said store manager Droo Hong. The store also serves individuals who need cash to make ends meet or to pay off other debts. Union Pawn offers quarterly pawn loans that have an interest rate of 4 percent, which is set by the state of New York. Hong said small business customers came from as far as New Jersey and Connecticut, where rates are higher. “Whether you need to pawn or not is not cultural,” said Hong. “If you live beyond your means, you’re in a bind.” He said he had not seen any extra business that was related to the holidays, but felt the demand had to do with the economy in general. High gold prices and a bad economy ushered in more business earlier this year, Hong said, but it has tapered of slightly and led him to speculate that it was not that the economy had strengthened, but that borrowers were maxed out or not looking to take on more debt. “The economy might be doing well for corporate America,” said Hong. “But it’s still rocky for small businesses, especially in retail, like clothing or jewelry.”

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Saving, Not Spending, For the Holiday

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It wasn’t supposed to work out this way. Millions of Americans, who have religiously paid their term life insurance premiums for decades, are confronting a no-win decision:  Drop their insurance now, exposing their loved ones to potential financial disaster in the event of their death; or continue to shovel larger and larger barrels-full of scarce cash into their policies which each year actually become worth less. I’ve dubbed this the Orman-Ramsey Vise — named after two of the more prominent media money prophets, Suze Orman and Dave Ramsey — who led so many of their flock into the jaws of this financial dilemma. The villain here is the routinely touted “buy term insurance and invest the difference” mantra.  In their books, broadcasts, live courses and on their websites, Orman, Ramsey and many other financial gurus have always sung the praises of term insurance.  They still do. The problem is that their theory of how term life would carry young Americans to their old age, allowing them to safeguard their loved ones and to build a large independent retirement portfolio along the way, often differs quite markedly from the reality . To understand the conundrum, first let’s review the theory promoted by Orman, Ramsey and others who so strongly favor the term life path. When policyholders are young and healthy, term life costs relatively little to acquire and keep in force.  I liken it to renting a home right after marriage rather than buying one — an analogy I will return to again in this article. With term life, young and healthy policyholders can purchase hundreds of thousands of dollars of death benefits for less than $50 a month.  This appears a wise and easy choice for young adults, who often are early in their careers, may be starting a family and may still have student loans to pay off. Indeed, for young adults, low-cost term life policies purchase as much if not more death benefit for a lot less than the alternative, often referred to as permanent or cash value life insurance. Orman and Ramsey hate all cash value life insurance products and rarely miss an opportunity to say so. They advise their followers to always buy term life and invest the savings (versus more expensive permanent life) in the stock market, where it can grow unfettered for decades.  Ramsey tells his believers they “can expect to make 12%” annually on their investments. Does anyone ever actually buy term insurance and invest the difference? As an interesting aside, I’ve never met anyone who actually bought a term policy, checked around to get the cost of a permanent policy with the same death benefit, and then invested the difference in a mutual fund every month. For most people, “buy term and invest the difference” translates into buy term and spend the difference.  But let’s get back to the conventional wisdom about this… In theory, by the time term policyholders reach their 50s and 60s, they’ll no longer need their policies because their investment portfolios will have ballooned to such a massive size that they will be wealthy enough to self-insure in the event of their death.  In other words, they won’t need life insurance because their estate will be rich enough without it. The term life theory is further bolstered by the expectation that by the time policyholders are nearing or in retirement, they will be empty-nesters, no longer having to look after the financial well being of their children, much less their elderly parents. But brace yourself for the reality… For millions of our friends, neighbors and family members, the world hasn’t turned out as Orman and Ramsey forecast. (Be a fly on the wall and watch Suze Orman and Dave Ramsey caught on video  discussing Bank On Yourself, the subject of my best-selling book.) So many people who bought term life policies in their 20s and 30s are now in their 50s and 60s and — surprise! — their stock market portfolio never did grow at the annual 12% rate that Ramsey touts.  In fact, many of these Orman-Ramsey devotees have yet to regain the dramatic losses they suffered during the 2008 market crash, and even the 2000 crash before that. Their kids, generally, did move out to attend college and even enter the job market.  But many of those adult children have moved back in with mom and dad, unable to support themselves and the high cost of living.  And — bless them — grandma, granddad or both are often still alive and also need financial assistance. Perhaps that’s one reason that a survey released in July 2011, conducted by Harris Interactive, found that Americans age 55 and older now intend to delay retirement by five years.  And data from the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates the typical pre-retiree has saved enough in their 401(k) to be able to withdraw only $260 a month! They can’t afford to retire yet.  And they certainly can’t afford to die… For these aging baby boomers, the financial consequences should they perish haven’t changed much: If they were to drop dead today without insurance in place, many of them would leave their loved ones in the poor house. “Oh, that’s okay,” you may be thinking, because they’ve been steadily paying term life premiums all these years — probably many tens of thousands of dollars worth — so they’re covered.  Right? Here is where the Orman-Ramsey theory gets another permanent divorce from the reality. To explain, let’s return to my analogy above that buying term life insurance is akin to renting a home.  No matter how many years or decades you’ve rented your home, you receive no credit for time-served if you can’t pay this month’s rent. Rather than showing you the Road to Wealth , as Orman promises in her 2010 book, your landlord will show you the expressway to eviction. It’s the very same concept with term life insurance.  Stop paying your premium this month or this quarter and the term insurance company will cancel your coverage in 31 days.  All those thousands of dollars you paid in over the years will buy you zero mercy. Lest you think that this, too, is easily solved by just having term life holders continue to pay the $50-or-so a month required to maintain their policies, better think again. The low monthly rates for term insurance applied only when policyholders were young and healthy.  As they aged, their rates (rent) rose and ultimately became astronomical. Moreover, because many of these term life policyholders are nearing or in retirement, they are no longer good candidates for fresh insurance of any variety.  Some have developed health problems that preclude them from obtaining additional or replacement death benefits. So for many of these responsible adults — men and women who year-in and year-out followed the advice they received — the choice now boils down to dropping their life insurance altogether, or paying a king’s ransom to renew the term insurance they have. What stings even more is the fact that when measuring in inflation-adjusted dollars, the term-life policies that they purchased decades ago are worth far less today.  In fact, if inflation averages just 4% a year, a 20-year term policy will effectively lose more than half of its value.  In essence, aging term-life policyholders often pay way, way more than they used to for  what may in effect be less than half the prospective death benefit coverage they originally sought. Is there a better way? For most people, the alternative insurance product that Orman and Ramsey so belittle actually proves to be a lot safer and smarter. Be forewarned: Not all cash value life insurance policies are equal and some of them are to be avoided at all cost.  So never jump from the term-life frying pan into the fire.  You must always do your due diligence. But the kind of dividend paying whole life insurance policies that I describe in my bestselling book, Bank on Yourself, would have spared millions of Americans from the unpleasant consequences of the Orman-Ramsey Vise. These policies have little-known options added on to them that grow your cash value up to 40 times faster than the policies Orman and Ramsey describe, while slashing the agent’s commission by up to 70%. Bank on Yourself-compliant whole life policies are akin to homeownership — not rent.  Yes, in their early years, they require more out-of-pocket cash than do term-life policies.  Purchasing a home does cost more early on than simply renting it. But flash forward a decade or two and an entirely different scenario presents itself. Now these whole life policyholders have a great deal to show for their patience over the years.  Because they own their policies, not just rent them, their rates don’t ratchet forward — ever . In fact, inflation works on behalf of whole life policyholders.   Typically, the payments on these policies are made at a single fixed rate for the life of the policy, meaning that as policyholders age, they pay the exact same amount, only in inflation-diminished dollars. While the out-of-pocket costs of term policyholders soar, the out-of-pocket costs for whole life policyholders effectively shrink with age. Most whole life policyholders eventually reach the point where they no longer need to contribute any further premiums out of pocket to keep their insurance in force to age 100 or greater.  The policy values can be used to cover them, or the policy can be converted into one that is fully “paid up,” with no more premiums due. The death benefits offered by Bank on Yourself-style whole life policies actually grow at an ever-increasing rate and surpass those of fixed term-life policies over time. Most importantly, though, the money that whole life insurance holders have paid in over the years generates a cash value and is typically supplemented by annual dividends. By the time holders of these turbo-charged policies near or reach retirement, many of them have built an impressive nest egg, which they can draw upon as needed.  It’s their money! And they most certainly don’t need to die to enjoy a healthy, secure return on their money. That’s wealth creation with none of the volatility and risk associated with the stock market Suze Orman, Dave Ramsey and others who share their term life recommendations are certainly popular and often entertaining.  But on this subject, they are also dead wrong. It’s a lesson that too many of those who followed their advice now know all too well. New York Times bestselling author Pamela Yellen is the founder of www.BankOnYourselfNation.com , a website dedicated to helping people achieve lifetime financial security and self-reliance.  As president of www.BankOnYourself.com , she’s helped hundreds of thousands grow their wealth safely and predictably.

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Pamela Yellen: An Unexpected ‘Orman-Ramsey Vise’ Now Squeezes Millions of Aging Americans

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Nearly 10 Percent Of European Insurers Fail Stress Tests: Regulator

July 4, 2011

LONDON (Myles Neligan) – Nearly 10 percent of European insurers would need to raise fresh capital in the event of a severe economic shock accompanied by a plunge in share prices, tumbling interest rates and a property market crash, European insurance regulator EIOPA said on Monday. Thirteen insurers would in that scenario rack up a collective 4.4 billion euro ($6.2 billion) capital shortfall relative to the minimum required under the European Union’s proposed Solvency II regime, the watchdog said as it unveiled the results of a stress test aimed at gauging the sector’s financial resilience. EIOPA did not name the companies, but said the small size of the shortfall compared with the sector’s 425 billion euro surplus before the stress tests are applied demonstrated the industry was financially robust overall. “This shows that overall the European insurance industry has a good shock absorber in its capital position,” EIOPA chairman Gabriel Bernardino told reporters. “Now each company will have an analysis of the areas where they are more exposed, and they can take action.” Bernardino said it was “not appropriate” to identify the companies facing a potential capital shortfall, as the Solvency II capital rules the stress tests are based on could change before they are introduced in 2013. “The take-away is that there isn’t going to be a rush to raise equity. The status quo will be maintained,” said Investec analyst Kevin Ryan. Insurers emerged from the 2008 financial crisis in better shape than banks, but a small number of failures in the sector has spurred regulators to scrutinize it more closely for fear a major insurance collapse could endanger the financial system. EIOPA’s banking counterpart, the EBA, will later this month publish the results of a stress test of European lenders which will name the institutions that are found to be financially weak. EIOPA also said six European insurers would face a collective capital shortfall of 2.5 billion euros in a separate shock scenario involving a surge in sovereign bond yields. However, the industry’s exposure to bonds issued by critically-indebted peripheral euro zone nations at risk of default is “manageable,” EIOPA’s Bernardino said. Allianz, Europe’s biggest insurer, said its Solvency II capital thresholds were determined by an internal model which was both more accurate and tougher than the approach adopted by EIOPA. “For all insurers working with internal models, own results will provide a clearer picture than the EIOPA figures,” an Allianz spokeswoman said. The stress tests “confirm the robustness of the European insurance market and its ability to withstand severe stress scenarios,” said CEA, the European insurers’ lobby group. ($1 = 0.705 Euros) (Reporting by Myles Neligan; Additional reporting by Arno Schuetze in Frankfurt; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Do I Really Need to Acquire a Commercial Real … – Money Wise Blog

June 5, 2011

There are Commercial Real estate Loan Originators who work with multiple lenders all across the nation, and who’ve years of heavy experience navigating the maze of paperwork, rules and regulations, bureaucratic red tape, …

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WATCH: College Grads Move Home, Face Uncertain Futures

May 24, 2011

LANSDALE, Pa. — One midnight in April, Sabrina Malik pulls her red Chevy Blazer into her mother’s asphalt driveway, removes the keys from the ignition, and stops to take a deep breath. Alone in the darkness, a sense of defeat courses through her body — disappointment about her past and uncertainty about what lies ahead. This, she thinks to herself, is surely what failure feels like. Six years ago, Malik fled this town for Syracuse University. Since graduating in 2009 with a bachelor’s degree in art history, she has yet to find a decent job. She hadn’t planned on moving back home and, at the age of 23, never expected to return to her mother’s house for an extended and open-ended period of time. “At times, it really feels very personal, it really feels like I’ve failed,” says Malik, standing in the kitchen of her mother’s two-story stone house and recalling the eight weeks since she returned home. She’s wearing khaki shorts and white socks that come up to her ankles. Glasses frame her brown eyes and wavy chestnut hair grazes her shoulders. “Your dream is a very personal thing and when you can’t do it, it feels like you’re being told that you’re not talented enough and that you haven’t worked hard enough.” After graduating from college, Malik moved to Boston. There, she worked as a nanny, sold books, and waited tables — a series of dead-end jobs that didn’t pay more than the minimum wage, didn’t require a college degree, and weren’t remotely related to what she wanted to do for the rest of her life. Two months ago, she ran out of money and drove home from Boston to Lansdale, a middle-class suburb north of Philadelphia, her car brimming with the contents of post-college life: canned food, twinkle lights, potted plants. A dozen of her paintings, stacked to the ceiling, kept hitting the back of her head. When a gas station attendant in New Jersey asked why she was moving and where she was headed, Malik didn’t know quite how to respond. She’s hardly alone. Malik is part of a generation of 20-somethings that’s experiencing what it’s like to graduate from college, move back in with your parents, and then get stuck there. Though estimates vary, a recent study by Twentysomething Inc., a consulting firm specializing in marketing to young adults, predicted that of the 2 million graduates in the class of 2011, 85 percent will return home because they can’t secure jobs that might give them more choices and more control over their lives . To be sure, having a college degree still matters. Nationwide, while the unemployment rate hovers around 9 percent, the jobless rate for college graduates 25 years and older is 4.5 percent. By contrast, 20 to 24-year-olds who only have a high school diploma are contending with an unemployment rate of nearly 20 percent. While college graduates typically navigate periods of economic decline far better than those lacking such credentials, the past few years have still taken an especially brutal toll on them. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the jobless rate for younger workers with a college degree has more than doubled since the recession began four years ago — from 3.5 percent in April of 2007 to 6.4 percent in April of this year. For college graduates under the age of 25, finding stable work is a particular challenge. According to Andrew Sum, an economist at Northeastern University, about half, or 3.2 million, are “underutilized”  — meaning they’re unemployed, working part-time, or working a job outside of the college labor market, such as bartending or waiting tables. Added to the lack of jobs is an increased amount of debt. Student loan debt recently outpaced credit card debt in terms of total amounts owed by borrowers. By year’s end, it is on track to surpass a trillion dollars, according to Mark Kantrowitz, an expert on student financial aid who runs the websites FinAid.org and Fastweb.com. According to the Institute for College Access and Success, an independent, nonprofit organization that works to make higher education more affordable, the average graduate finishes school with $24,000 of debt — though many struggle to repay far more. Like Malik, many 20-somethings are experiencing early adulthood as one long pause in their lives, affecting not only conventional coming-of-age milestones such as becoming financially independent, but more deeply personal things as well — like their hopes and their dreams.  THE AMERICAN DREAM Recently, after sending out dozens of resumes and cover letters, all of which went unanswered, Malik’s spirits plummeted. Even rejection feels better than no response at all, she thought to herself. In her second-floor bedroom, where handmade quilts cover the bed and charcoal drawings line the walls, she tries as best she can to avoid her mother’s notice. Mostly, she just doesn’t want her to worry. But Marilyn Malik is close to her daughter and is an expert at reading Sabrina’s shifting moods. “Sabrina gets down on herself and I worry,” says Marilyn, sitting in her home office in the basement, where she works as a nursing supervisor for a health insurance company. While she says that her daughter is welcome to live in the house for as long as she needs, she hopes that Sabrina might find a job sooner rather than later. And Marilyn is adjusting to the fact that her daughter’s path may not mirror the one she took 30 years ago, when, as a college-educated young woman, she first ventured out into the world.  Marilyn, 53, grew up in a small town in the Poconos. Her father worked as an electrician; her mother worked as a nurse. Marilyn studied nursing in college and she and her parents split the $4,000 annual tuition. She worked as a waitress to earn her share. A few years after college, Marilyn married Ajmal Malik, a Pakistani immigrant. He attended college at the University of Lahore in Pakistan and earned two master’s degrees after moving to the U.S. The couple made their home in Plymouth Meeting, Pa., where they raised Sabrina and her older brother Omar, who’s now 25. In those early years, Ajmal, an accountant, worked his way up the ladder while Marilyn picked up night shifts at the nearby hospital. She describes their standard of living as lower-middle-class — borrowing money to purchase their first starter home and relying on quick, cheap dinners of soup and biscuits to get by. Ajmal died of cancer when his children were nine and 11, leaving Marilyn to support an entire household on her income alone. “You grieve for yourself, and you grieve for your kids,” explains Marilyn, who started working full-time after Ajmal died and has yet to let up. Sending both kids to college was always the plan. The majority of the payout from her deceased husband’s life insurance went towards a college savings account, which ultimately wasn’t enough to cover the high costs associated with sending two kids to out-of-state schools. Marilyn paid about $100,000 for Sabrina to attend Syracuse University in upstate N.Y. and took out another $20,000 in loans to cover the rest. Sabrina and Omar, who attended the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, will have to shoulder their own graduate school costs, however. “She’d probably say no to doing things if she knew how much everything cost,” says Marilyn, who pays down the $20,000 in Sabrina’s student loans while also saving up for her own retirement. Sabrina is struggling to pay off about $2,000 in credit card debt and her remaining student debts weigh on her relationship with her mother. Marilyn hates owing money and tries to put an extra $100 or $200 towards paying down the student loans whenever she can. Marilyn and Sabrina find it hard to talk about Sabrina’s student loans and generally avoid the subject. Sabrina wishes she could do more to help her mother pay the debt and had planned on having a job after graduating that would allow her to do that — yet another part of her future that hasn’t exactly gone as planned. While living in Boston, she made barely enough to cover her own rent and utilities, let alone scrape together enough extra to help her mother with the monthly loan repayments. Sabrina also wonders whether paying so much for college has made her mother’s own life more insecure. “I know she’s further away from her own retirement because she sent us to such expensive schools” says Malik, whose plans for graduate education are indefinitely on hold until she can save up some money. Right now, even $80 application fees for graduate school seem like a lot.  Although Marilyn remarried a few years ago, her first husband’s absence is deeply felt — especially now, when their daughter is struggling. “I wonder if he had been around, whether my kids would have been better placed, whether they would have received better advice,” says Marilyn, who plans to work for at least another decade. She long ago decided that sending her kids to college was more important to her than saving for the day when she could retire. By this point in her life, Marilyn imagined that her daughter would have already embarked upon a well-paying career and be living on her own. She also wonders what it means for the next generation of 20-somethings, and whether they’ll have access to better opportunities than their parents’ generation. “My generation had it better than what my parents had and you’d think it would continue progressing that same way,” she says. “Historically, each generation gets better as it goes along — they’re more affluent, they have more education, they reach more goals. This generation, you would hope that would happen, too, but it doesn’t seem to be going that way.” DREAMS ARE CHEAP Half a century ago, 77 percent of women and 65 percent of men had attained traditional markers of maturity by their 30th birthday: They had left home, finished school, gotten a job, married, and started a family. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, by 2000, less than half of 30-year-old women and just one-third of 30-year-old men had attained similar markers of adulthood. A lot, but not all, of the shift has to do with work — or, more specifically, a lack of work, say analysts and others . They argue that the current recession has pushed 20-somethings farther and faster in a direction they were already headed. Sending your kid to college once was a way of ensuring their sure-footed success. But with 20-somethings mired in debt and confronting a dearth of decent-paying jobs, many are returning to the nest. “I can assure you that few people in my generation are living high off the hog in their parents’ house,” says Matthew Segal, the 25-year-old founder of Our Time , a national membership organization for young people under 30. He says he resents the popular characterization of 20-somethings as lazy and unmoored. “Trust me, they’re not getting too comfortable sleeping in their childhood bedroom or eating out of their parents’ fridge. They’re moving home because they don’t have jobs and they have a lot of debt.” Except for designated downtime, when she’s either making art or weaving on her loom, Malik spends much of her time avoiding thinking about what became of the goals her parents helped her to set. Her mother always encouraged her to think and dream big. Yet since graduating from college, she’s found herself doing the exact opposite. Her dream for the future used to encompass a well-appointed and comfortable life — a farmhouse, two artist studios, a husband, and several children. “But it’s not worth dreaming so big anymore,” says Malik. “My plans now are far less extravagant. I guess I’m learning to dream on a much smaller scale.” Specifically, she doesn’t think she’ll be able to afford a home as nice as her mother’s. Nor, she predicts, will she be able to send her own children to schools as fancy as those that she attended. “The hope that things are going to get better is really all we have,” she explains. “I mean, on top of being the generation that’s struggling, we don’t want to be the generation that’s cynical, too.” Some scholars attribute such hard-wired optimism to the way that the parents of 20-somethings raised them. Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais co-author books about millennials (typically defined as the generation born between 1982 and 2003). “Millennials were raised the way Bill Cosby told parents to raise their kids — set rules, show encouragement, don’t use physical discipline, build up a child’s self-esteem,” explains Winograd. “If you tell someone from zero to 13 that they’re always doing a nice job and that they’re really special and wonderful, they’ll wind up believing they are.” Self-confidence breeds optimism, according to Winograd and Hais, even when times are tough. “The millennials don’t have a sense that everything is wonderful, because obviously it isn’t, but they believe as a country that things will get better and their lives will also get better,” says Hais. “In part, it’s because they’re young and they actually have time to accomplish this. But it’s also because generations like the millennials feel they’ve accomplished good things in the past and that they will again in the future because their parents told them so.” Jeffrey Jensen Arnett, a psychology professor at Clark University, is also struck by the optimism of the young adults that he studies. “I think the main reason for their optimism is that dreams are cheap in emerging adulthood. That is, their dreams haven’t yet been tested in the fires of real, adult life. And who knows, maybe they really will find their dream job?” In general, young people are taking longer to assume more traditional adult responsibilities and young lives are unfolding in a less predictable sequence , Arnett says. He views the twenties as a new and distinct life stage and classifies it as “emerging adulthood.” According to Arnett, this stage generally starts around the age of 18 and continues until an individual is in his or her mid-to-late twenties. While the category itself is fluid, “emerging adulthood” refers to a time during which young people are relatively free of obligations. But many 20-somethings, like Malik, are increasingly delaying adult responsibilities because they can’t secure a job stable enough to allow them to take the steps necessary to establish an independent life. As such, even youthful optimism has its limits . Despite a general proclivity toward positive thinking, analysts say current circumstances are weighing down this generation of 20-somethings. “The mood for young people definitely isn’t as optimistic as it’s been in the past,” says Carl Van Horn, a professor of public policy at Rutgers University. Last week, he and his colleagues released a study titled “Unfulfilled Expectations: Recent College Graduates Struggle in a Troubled Economy.” It polled young people who graduated from college between 2006 and 2010. “You expect people to be optimistic when they’re young about their ability to get ahead,” Van Horn says. “It’s pretty clear that this group of college students are feeling very much like their opportunities have been stunted.” A FALSE PROMISE? Since moving home, the highlight of Malik’s weekend involves walking to the edge of her mother’s driveway on Sunday morning and retrieving the hand-delivered copy of The New York Times . She’s on a $15 weekly budget and getting the paper delivered is a rare indulgence. Last Sunday, Malik accompanied her extended family to a pancake breakfast to support the local firehouse in the nearby town of Sellersville, Pa. Without traffic, it’s about a 20-minute drive from Lansdale. As her family and some of her mother’s friends waited for a table, Malik carved out a tiny space where she sat and read the paper in silence. She wasn’t up for answering the questions that usually follow — about what she was up to, or how the job search was going. She mostly just needed a break from the constant inquisition. “I spend a lot of my time trying as best I can to appease everyone and show them that I’m in good spirits and putting forth all this extra effort,” says Malik. “Every once in a while, I just need to be by myself. They know what I’m going through.” Even the relentless optimism of millennials is straining under the depth and length of the current recession. A poll released in April by AP-Viacom indicated that among Americans between the ages of 18 to 24, there was skepticism about the notion that life would improve with each passing generation. Four in 10 of those surveyed predicted difficulty in raising a family and affording the lifestyle they felt they deserved. Like homebuyers who took on outsized mortgages they couldn’t afford, either out of ignorance or because banks cajoled them, in order to realize the American Dream of home ownership, many students and their parents have taken on crushing piles of educational debt in order to realize another part of the American Dream: a college education. Andrew Sum, a 64-year-old economist at Northeastern University who’s studied the college labor market for the past 30 years, thinks the current economic slump is giving both recent graduates and their parents a rude awakening. Sum grew up in Gary, Ind. with a father who worked as a welder. While he says that he and his four siblings were able to achieve a better life than their parents, for the first time in recent American history, the majority of the young people he studies are not. “Every generation ought to try and leave behind a better world for the next generation,” says Sum. “And until recently, it’s generally been true that the next generation exceeded the living standard of the current one. But over the last decade, that’s no longer the case.” One of Sum’s pet theories is the “age twist effect.” He says that over the decade from 2000 to 2010, the younger someone was, the more likely they were to get fired or be otherwise left without a job. Historically, and in every decade since the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics began compiling such data, it’s been the exact opposite. Sum’s findings conclude that 7 million more young people under the age of 30 would be working today if the labor market behaved as it did only a decade ago. Sum and his colleagues predict that underutilization and underemployment will leave an indelible mark on this generation. In the near term, Sum finds college graduates moving home, and staying there. And while college degrees matter, they only matter if young people are able to then convert them into a job — hence, generating the considerable college premium. “If you can manage to do that, you can do well,” says Sum. “But if you end up outside, you’ll only do marginally better than someone who has a high school diploma and those losses stay with you for a lifetime.” For Malik, both in terms of her current and future income, the longer she’s out of work, the more dire the consequences will be. Being unemployed is always worse than working, but it’s ultimately the type of job she gets that will affect her future stability. For instance, should Malik secure yet another job outside the college labor market — working again as a nanny or as a clerk in a retail shop — the chances that she’ll regain a more permanent economic toehold will grow ever more unlikely. The impact that the job she lands will have on her future wages is likely to be staggering. For the public at large, Sum finds there’s a 73 percent gap in the annual earnings of college graduates that have a college labor market job versus those that work in a job that doesn’t require a degree — say, the difference between working as a paralegal and a receptionist in a law firm. Bachelor’s degree holders between the ages of 22 to 64 that have a college labor market job make an average salary of $52,873. Those working outside the college labor market earn $30,503 — or a difference in salary of more than $22,000 a year.  But many 20-somethings, like Malik, are also struggling with what is likely a case of bad economic timing. Graduates of 2009 were hit especially hard. A study conducted by the  John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers indicates that 50 percent of 2009 graduates are either unemployed or working in jobs that don’t require a college degree. Lisa B. Khan, who studies economics at Yale’s School of Management, recently conducted a study that looked at the long-term impact of graduating into a weak economy. Khan examined young people that graduated from college during the peak of the recession that occurred in the 1980s. In their first three years on the job market, Khan found they made about 30 percent less than classmates with more advantageous economic timing. And their subsequent salaries, even a dozen years later, were between eight and ten percent lower. This means that it might take Malik, who graduated two years ago during the beginning of a particularly brutal recession, up to a decade to recover the wages she might have earned had she sidestepped the downturn altogether. Paul Oyer, an economist at Stanford University, concedes that young people who start work when times are tough not only get behind, but generally have a tough time catching up. But Oyer also thinks that luck plays a role in the making of any successful career, good economic times or bad. What does concern him is that some historical trends seem to be withering in the current economy. Although wealth in America has increased from generation to generation, Oyer isn’t convinced that the current generation of 20-somethings will enjoy the rewards of a similar phenomenon. He attributes the shift to globalization and the number of available jobs. Because of these factors, he doesn’t think it makes much sense for young people to pile on educational debt to attend elite schools when they have less expensive alternatives — unless, of course, their parents are willing to go on the hook for it. Parents exert a powerful shaping force on their children’s decisions to go to college, as well as which college to attend. In addition, they are often caught up in the emotional rush that a college education entails, further complicating an issue that has already become a financial minefield for the middle class. “All along, I was going to make it work,” explains Marilyn. “If I had to take out loans, I was going to do that.” Once Sabrina and Omar were admitted into the colleges of their dreams, Marilyn saw it as her personal responsibility to make sure they could attend — even when it meant taking out additional loans in order to finance it. And while Marilyn says she doesn’t regret her investment, she assumed that a $120,000 degree would at least translate into a decent-paying job for her daughter. “One thing that terrifies parents more than budget deficits or a weak economy is job security for their kids. They’re afraid they won’t be able to pass along their middle class status to the next generation,” says Anthony P. Carnevale, who directs Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce. “In raising a child in America, the fear of failing is just enormous. Sending your kid to college used to pretty much guarantee their future success. It no longer necessarily works that way.” And, of course, what if this generation simply doesn’t value the same things their parents’ generation did? John Della Volpe, who directs polling at Harvard University’s Institute of Politics, spends much of the year gauging the thoughts of young people. His company SocialSphere recently conducted a study of 5,000 millennials between the ages of 16 and 24. It asked them to think about the next five to seven years of their lives and to rank the importance of what they hoped to achieve. His findings indicate that many young people aren’t focused on becoming famous or making piles of money. On the contrary, their hopes for the future revolve around making a contribution to society and staying in close touch with family and friends. “There’s a potential for this younger generation to have an economic reset,” explains Della Volpe. “It’s now okay to stay in your hometown.” AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE When it’s your decision, returning to your hometown is one thing. Being stuck there feels like something else entirely.  Malik says her days are an exercise in resilience. She has yet to shake her loneliness and general feeling of isolation. Most weekdays, she gets up by nine o’clock and immediately forces herself to get dressed. After breakfast, she typically positions herself on one of two floral upholstered couches in the sunroom, where, with laptop in hand, she begins the daily chore of scouring websites for job openings. When not job hunting, Malik helps out around the house — taking out the trash, doing the dishes, going grocery shopping, walking the dog, or making dinner a few nights a week. In some ways, the chores remind her of being in high school. Before her mother remarried and she and her brother headed off to college, it was just the three of them helping out around the house. Growing up, when her mother made dinner or when the house needed cleaning, the two siblings alternated chores. “Now that I’m back, I do those same kinds of things and it feels like the least I can do,” explains Malik. “It doesn’t feel like a task or a chore. I’m just helping my mom out, like I’ve always done.” But now, Malik is a grown woman. Part of her yearns for her own place where she can come and go as she pleases, and where the rules are hers and hers alone. On visits to see her boyfriend, who lives in Brooklyn, N.Y. and works for a private art collector, she sees glimpses of the independent life she expected to be living by now. Until she can land her ultimate gig of working as a curator in an art gallery, or begin a long trajectory of jobs that might eventually get her there, she’s looking for something to pay the bills. She’s looked into working as a clerk in a local retail shop and selling hot water heaters. Businesses in Lansdale are inundated with swarms of recent colleges graduates looking for any job they can get. Locally, there’s the option of working for a big pharmaceutical company, Starbucks or Walgreens, but not much else. When things start to feel overwhelming, Malik finds it helpful to make lists of things to accomplish. The current two-page iteration lists everything from big to small stuff — like getting a job and someday opening an art gallery to straightening her hair and eating fewer bagels. A recent addition, which has yet to be crossed off, is that Malik aspires to be less hard on herself. Namely, that for the time being at least, it’s okay to allow herself to feel sad sometimes. “Right now, it’s a battle of trying to remain levelheaded — and I don’t know if it’s trying to stay optimistic, or become more realistic, or just learn to be okay with going through the motions,” she says. “It feels like a lot of pressure. I want to make everyone proud. I want to blow everyone out of the water with everything I’ve accomplished. And I just can’t get there.” 

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Robert Kuttner: Beware Greeks Bearing Banks

May 23, 2011

After every financial debacle or war, there is a huge political struggle over whether creditors and financial speculators get to stand in the way of an economic recovery. When the creditors win, ordinary people who had nothing to do with the crisis are typically the victims. Today, the entire political elite is in the austerity camp, and those who argue that creditors should take some losses so that the rest of the economy can grow are mostly ignored. This is the common theme to the issue of mortgage relief to spare American homeowners millions of foreclosures, the question of whether the US should sacrifice Medicare and Social Security on the altar of deficit reduction, and the punishment being visited upon small European economies such as Greece, Portugal and Ireland. (Though Dominique Strauss-Kahn was evidently a sexual predator, he was not a financial rapist when it came to vulnerable nations. He was a rare member of the ruling financial club who gave some attention to economic recovery over austerity.) Greece is the poster child for this dilemma, and the Greek story reveals the real villain of the piece — the big banks. In February 2010, it was revealed that Goldman Sachs had been complicit in allowing previous Greek governments to cook their books and hide the size of the Greek deficit by creating a special kind of currency swap that was really a disguised loan. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, Greece’s national debt is unsustainable, and only credits from the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund are keeping Greece from defaulting. The bankers want Greece to languish in debtor’s prison, cutting wages and social benefits, increasing taxes, and otherwise sandbagging its own economy in order to pay back creditors at 100 cents on the Euro. Greece, however, is now in a vicious circle: the more the Greeks practice the austerity demanded by the money markets and the European Central Bank, the more the Greek economy predictably slumps and the more that money markets lose confidence that Greece will ever recover enough to pay back its bondholders. In this crisis, bankers are culpable in three different and reinforcing respects. First, we have the case of Goldman’s complicity in helping the Greek previous government to get Greece in over its head. Secondly, the European Central Bank and the big German banks are opposed to a restructuring of the Greek debt — trading short term bonds for longer term securities with reduced interest and principal — because big banks are the major bondholders and resist taking any losses. Recently, a third concern came to light — our old nemesis, credit default swaps (CDS). These are the very same toxic securities that were so implicated in the 2007-2009 financial crash. CDS are a form of insurance against default of securities. But unlike, say, underwriters of life insurance or fire insurance, the issuers of swaps seldom have adequate reserves against losses because they assume that defaults will hardly ever occur. Rather, CDS have become a favorite vehicle for speculation by hedge funds and investment banks. According a Friday Wall Street Journal report from Brussels, even a partial a restructuring of the Greek government debt could trigger payouts of credit default swaps. A group of European finance ministers raised the possibility of a “soft” restructuring of the Greek debt, so as not to reward speculators who were betting on a Greek default, but officials of the European Central Bank threw a fit, warning that the ECB would pull the plug on funding for Greek banks if such a restructuring were discussed. From the view of the ECB, the sheer complexity of financial markets is now such that any form of restructuring that would benefit Greece could set off ripples that might destabilize the system, so the ECB is dead set against it. Better for the Greeks just to suffer. It’s clear that Greece can’t pay its debts. The practical question is whether an adjustment will be accompanied by more pain or less, and whether the financial sector will be permitted to keep bleeding Greece dry. There is an instructive historical parallel. When American banks found themselves in big trouble in the 1980s because several third world countries could not pay back their loans, Nicholas Brady, Bush I’s Treasury Secretary, came up with an ingenious plan. The debts would be stretched out, and the creditors would take a hit averaging about 30 percent. The banks were compelled to take their feet off the oxygen hoses of more than a dozen nations, and recovery of their real economies ensued. Worry about triggering payouts of credit default swaps was not an obstacle because, mercifully, credit default swaps had not been invented yet. The more we learn about these toxic securities and their abuse, the more wisdom we see in Paul Volcker’s comment that the last useful innovation created by the financial industry was the ATM machine. The stakes are somehow clearer after wars than after financial busts. Bonds issued by defeated countries are worthless, so debts do not sandbag recoveries. Victorious countries typically restructure their own war debt, so that it doesn’t cripple the postwar economy. (America’s first treasury secretary, Alexander Hamilton, was a hero for devising a plan for the new federal government to assume the war debts.) We also remember the fatal lesson of the First World War, where the British and French tried to squeeze defeated Germany dry to pay off their own war debts — and destroyed Germany’s economy, thus creating grievances that led to World War II. After the second war, we didn’t make the same mistake twice. But somehow, it’s harder to win general support for debt relief after a financial collapse because details are more murky and the banks are so bloody powerful. The fact is that throughout modern history, governments have defaulted on debts dozens of times. It’s more important for real economies to realize their productive potential than for bankers to get their pound of flesh. The choice doesn’t have to be default or debtor’s prison. A middle ground is debt restructuring of the sort being proposed for Greece, but the banks and their toadies in government are too greedy and short sighted to appreciate it. In the context of today’s debt politics, Nick Brady, who faithfully served George H.W. Bush, is a dangerous radical. Robert Kuttner is co-editor of The American Prospect and a senior fellow at Demos. His latest book is A Presidency in Peril .

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Kansas Poised To Pass Controversial Anti-Abortion Measure

May 13, 2011

TOPEKA, Kan. — Kansas legislators approved a ban Friday on insurance companies offering abortion coverage as part of their general health plans except when a woman’s life is at risk, capping a string of for abortion rights opponents in the four months since sympathetic Gov. Sam Brownback took office. Brownback, an anti-abortion Republican, is expected to sign the bill sent to him by the state House a mere 15 minutes before lawmakers adjourned their annual session. The House’s early-morning vote was 86-30 in support of a larger bill that included the abortion coverage restrictions. The state Senate had approved it Thursday night, 28-10. If the bill becomes law as expected, starting in July, individuals and employers who want abortion coverage would have to buy supplemental policies that cover only abortion. Supporters of the bill argue that it will protect employers who oppose abortion rights from having to pay for policies that cover the procedures. The legislation also says that no state or federally administered health-insurance exchange in Kansas established under last year’s federal health care overhaul law can offer coverage for abortions, other than to save a woman’s life. “This bill includes very crucial pro-life language,” said House Judiciary Committee Chairman Lance Kinzer, an Olathe Republican. “I would view this as an important conscience protection for Kansas business owners.” After taking office, Brownback called on the GOP-dominated Legislature to create a “culture of life.” He’s already signed legislation to tighten restrictions on late-term abortions and require doctors to obtain written permission from parents before terminating minors’ pregnancies. Legislators also have sent him a bill to impose new health and safety standards specifically for abortion clinics, which Brownback is expected to sign. And the state budget approved by lawmakers contains a provision diverting $300,000 in federal family planning dollars away from Planned Parenthood to public hospitals and health departments. Those measures are part of a wave of anti-abortion legislation across the nation, as abortion opponents have been encouraged by the election of new Republican governors last year and conservative legislators. Several states have considered insurance coverage restrictions similar to Kansas’ legislation. Democratic Govs. Kathleen Sebelius and Mark Parkinson, who held the office before Brownback, blocked most major changes in Kansas abortion laws, vetoing legislation that is becoming law this year. “There’s clearly a message here that women are dispensable,” said state Rep. Annie Kuether, a Topeka Democrat and one of the Legislature’s shrinking number of abortion rights supporters. “I’m sick and tired of being treated like a second-class citizen.” But Kathy Ostrowski, legislative director for the anti-abortion group Kansans for Life, said the state’s new laws will protect women who seek abortions from dangerous clinics and provide more accurate reporting by doctors about their activities. The tighter restrictions on late-term procedures are based on a notion disputed by abortion rights supporters and the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists that a fetus can feel pain by the 22nd week of pregnancy. “It has obviously been a good session,” Ostrowski said after lawmakers adjourned. “We have established a beachhead of protection for the developing unborn child.” Supporters of the restrictions on health insurance coverage for abortions noted that Missouri has long had such restrictions. Blue Cross Blue Shield of Kansas City, which operates in 30 Missouri counties and Johnson and Wyandotte counties in Kansas, carries its Missouri practices into Kansas. The company has said consumers rarely ask for abortion-only policies. “The fundamental issue here is not – although I wish it were – the ability to further limit legal access to abortion, but rather who pays,” Kinzer said. Abortion rights supporters are skeptical, believing the bill’s backers want to cut off a way for women to cover the cost of terminating pregnancies. And Rep. Barbara Bollier, a Mission Hills Republican who supports abortion rights, questioned whether women would buy abortion-only policies long before they have crisis or unwanted pregnancies or are rape victims. During the House’s debate, Rep. Pete DeGraaf, a Mulvane Republican who supports the bill, told her: “We do need to plan ahead, don’t we, in life?” Bollier asked him, “And so women need to plan ahead for issues that they have no control over with a pregnancy?” DeGraaf drew groans of protest from some House members when he responded, “I have spare tire on my car.” “I also have life insurance,” he added. “I have a lot of things that I plan ahead for.” ___ The insurance legislation, including the abortion restrictions, is in HB 2075. The original version of the abortion measure is HB 2292. ___ Online: Kansas Legislature: http://www.kslegislature.org Kansans for Life: http://www.kfl.org Planned Parenthood: http://www.plannedparenthood.org/kansas-mid-missouri/

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Lion Street Announces Additions to Management Team, Producer-Owner Base Expansion and New Offices

March 17, 2011

AUSTIN, TX–(Marketwire – March 17, 2011) – An elite group of life insurance producer-owners has begun to take shape as Lion Street adds subscribers and builds infrastructure. The agent-owned distribution model has been validated as 18 founding firms representing 34 producers have made the decision to become Lion Street owners.

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Japan’s Earthquake Estimated To Cost Insurers Upwards Of $50B

March 12, 2011

NEW YORK — Japan’s massive earthquake has led to untold damages to life and property. Early estimates for the losses for insurers and reinsurers around the globe are ranging from $10 billion to $50 billion. Aflac Inc., which sells health and life insurance to one out of every four people in Japan, says it is monitoring the situation closely. “The sheer devastation is a shock,” said Aflac CEO Dan Amos in an interview. “This will probably impact 3 to 4 million out of the 100 million people in Japan.” Amos says the number of deaths is small compared to the size of the earthquake, but says he expects a lot of people to be treated for injuries. Though he expects the number of claims to be high, Amos says the company is well prepared to cover them. Amos is flying into Japan on Sunday. Aflac stock was down only 0.3 percent on Friday. The losses to property and casualty will likely be higher as entire homes and buildings were washed by the tsunami and many business locations were flooded. A Credit Suisse report says the initial reports estimate a range from $10 billion to $50 billion. In Europe, the stocks of some of the world’s biggest reinsurance companies fell sharply Friday on fears that the earthquake in Japan and the subsequent tsunami will cost them dearly. Reinsurers led many of Europe’s major stock indexes lower. Swiss Re and Munich Re both fell about 4 percent. Hannover Re was down around 5 percent. The companies issue backup insurance to primary insurers so that the system can cover large losses from disasters. Hannover Re already said last week it expected to pay out euro150 million ($207 million) for the earthquake that hit New Zealand.

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David A. Dana: A Simple Approach to Preventing the Next Housing Crisis: Why We Need One, What One Would Look Like, and Why Dodd-Frank Isn’t It

December 31, 2010

The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act was, ostensibly, a response to the crisis in the U.S. housing market and the inter-related crisis in the market for mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”). One of the goals of the legislation, presumably, was to prevent another crisis in housing and mortgage finance. And, certainly after what we have seen in recent years, no one could question the importance of that goal. The housing crisis has deprived thousands upon thousands of Americans of not just wealth but of their homes; it has helped drive municipalities to the brink of fiscal collapse; and it has impeded the recovery of the U.S jobs market. The MBS crisis took down major financial institutions in the U.S., and almost caused a complete collapse of the financial sector. We cannot afford a repeat experience. But Dodd-Frank, even if it is implemented in the far-reaching way that some hope and think it can be, will not address a problem at the heart of the housing and MBS crisis: excessive complexity. The years running up to the implosion of the housing and MBS markets were marked by ever-increasing complexity. This complexity caused confusion and poor judgment on the part of unsophisticated home buyers and owners and supposedly sophisticated securities investors. This complexity also allowed some people and institutions to make an astonishing amount of money originating mortgages that never should have been originated and selling MBS that never should have been sold, at least at the prices they were sold. Dodd-Frank does not do the structural work of simplification we need to prevent this all from happening again once the memories of the current crises fade. Instead of Dodd-Frank, we need clear statutory reform that limits residential mortgages to a few sensible products, all girded by strict underwriting standards, and that correspondingly produces a well-ordered, transparent market in bonds or securities based on these mortgages. Other countries, most notably Denmark, have maintained a simplified, and hence much more stable, regime of residential lending and finance with reasonable costs of capital for borrowers. Moreover, it would probably be a good thing if reforms brought about lower rates of household investments in home ownership in the United States would be desirable: from a basic economics perspective, American households have long been overinvested in where they live. The approach I advocate — the simplicity approach, if you will — is admittedly politically infeasible at present, but if what is politically feasible is only Dodd-Frank, then perhaps our attention needs to most immediately focus on changing our politics and hence expanding the domain of the politically feasible. The Move to Complexity and Its Consequences At one point in time, residential lending in the United States was fairly simple, involving few parties per transaction and few instruments. Thirty year fixed rate, fully amortized mortgages were overwhelmingly the mortgage of choice; a significant down payment deposit was required; second and third mortgages were relatively uncommon, at least as part of the initial purchase transaction. In the last twenty years or so, we saw the utilization of a dizzying array of nontraditional alternatives in which rates were not fixed or only fixed for a time, principal was only partially amortized or not amortized at all, and by means of second mortgages or simply through lax underwriting standards, purchases often means little or no upfront, unborrowed cash deposit. At the same time, the number of parties involved in a single loan proliferated. Whereas once mortgages were solicited, originated and held by lenders, now those functions are typically performed by different parties. Mortgage brokers often originate mortgages, and usually sell them as fast as possible to lenders, who in turn quite often sell them again and again. Lenders very often retain servicing on loans they long ago sold. As the big servicers such as Bank of America have recently been forced to admit, the fabric of transactions surrounding a given ordinary residential mortgage can now be so complex that it is no mean feat to determine at a given point in time who exactly “owns” the mortgage. There has been a corresponding move to complexity in the MBS arena. Mortgages have been securitized for quite a long time in the United States, but until recently, almost all of the securitized mortgages were fixed rate mortgages that were originated using relatively strict FHA or Freddie Mac underwriting requirements and that enjoyed an implicit repayment guarantee of the United States. In the years immediately leading up to the implosion of the housing and mortgage finance market, we witnessed an array of new private label MBS that were much more complex than traditional MBS. The new kinds of MBS had so many tranches and permutations that you needed flow charts and advanced engineering degrees just to map them out. FHA and Freddie Mac sought to compete with private label MBS by loosening their underwriting standards and by producing more and more varied MBS products. The greater complexity in the market for mortgage instruments and in the MBS market were intertwined and reinforcing: The greater and more complex array of MBS fed demand for more borrowers, which was achieved in part by means of new, more complex loan arrangements that targeted households that could not have afforded traditional mortgages. That the housing and MBS crises were preceded by a move from simplicity to great complexity does not, by itself, mean that the complexity per se was a cause of the two crises. But complexity can operate to lead to sub-optimal decisions, as the behavioral psychology literature illustrates. Faced with a confusing array of choices, people tend to fall back on heuristic biases that do not necessarily result in the decisions that maximize their welfare. In particular, the complexity of mortgage arrangements and instruments likely made it easier for potential home owners and refinancing home owners to fall prey to “the optimism bias.” With this bias, it was too easy for many borrowers to believe that housing prices always rise (and certainly never fall) and hence that a no-money down, variable-interest rate mortgage is not just immediately tempting but also prudent. So, too, the dizzying array of MBS choices made it easier for investors to heavily invest funds that were supposed to be reserved for prudent investments, without tackling straight on the possibility that the always-rising-prices scenario might be nothing more than an historical anomaly. Swindlers flourished in the complexity and the confusion of the housing and MBS markets. The complexity of consumer choice made it easier for unscrupulous mortgage originators to target and sell vulnerable homeowners and home buyers products that they did not understand, could not afford, did not need, or were more expensive than available alternatives. The complexity of the MBS markets and its instruments allowed the originators, poolers, and sellers of MBS to take advantage of their superior information by overcharging and overselling their customers. Complexity made it easier for the MBS poolers and marketers to shop offerings among credit agencies for the best ratings. Complexity helped the credit agencies to meet the implicit demands of the MBS poolers and marketers — and hence boost their profits — because it allowed them to tell themselves the story that the offerings, which after all were too complex for them to really understand, somehow might deserve the AAA or AA ratings. Complexity also has made it harder for the government and private actors to respond sensibly to the housing and MBS crises. One plausible solution to the housing crisis would be the re-working of mortgages to reduce principal and make the mortgages more in keeping of actual market values. There are many reasons we have observed almost no loan modifications with principal reductions, but one contributing factor is the division of individual mortgages into many distinct and often adverse investment interests and the consequent difficulty of gaining approval from mortgage “owners” to significant modifications. The division of the ownership of mortgages from their servicing also has impeded loan modifications. Finally, complexity helped vested economic interests — including those making money off the poor choices home buyers and owners and securities investors make in an environment of complexity — avoid effective regulatory oversight. In the lead up to the implosion of the housing and MBS markets, federal regulators were largely passive, but when they did try to act, they received an enormous push-back from the financial industry and they quickly retreated. The financial industry’s enormous clout with both political parties and in Congress and the White House would make it difficult for even the most courageous, well-intentioned regulators try to get anything done that that industry does not favor. But complexity makes it harder for such regulators to try to get anything done, because regulators quite plausibly can be (and are) assaulted with the claim that they do not fully understand the complexities of the relevant markets and hence are not equipped to impose new rules and regulations. Indeed, in the wake of the MBS crisis, regulators had to turn for advice and counsel to the same entities that had helped create and benefited from the bubble in MBS instruments for explanations of those instruments and guidance as to what they really might be worth. The Simplicity Approach (or Why Not Follow Demark?) In a simplified mortgage and MBS market, there would be only one or two kinds of residential mortgages available, with the 30-year fixed-rate as the predominant instrument; putting twenty percent down or paying mortgage insurance requirements would be a strict requirement and not easily evaded using second mortgages; and rates among mortgages offered to borrowers thus would not be very varied. The similarity in instruments and the uniformity of the underwriting standards would not support a wide range of rates. Because only traditional, reasonable risk mortgages would be made, there would be no possibility of MBS based on nontraditional mortgages. MBS pools would be based on quite transparent instruments, and investors in MBS thus could make reasoned and reasonable investment choices. In such an environment, the bubbles we experienced and subsequent implosions would be less likely. Moreover, there are models — and not just historical ones — for such a simplified regime of mortgage finance. In Denmark, the form of residential mortgages is tightly regulated — so much so that there is really only a single mortgage rate good for virtually all new mortgages on any given day. Mortgages are financed with bonds, such that banks are able to off-load interest rate risk while retaining creditworthiness risk. The Danish system, which no less prominent an investor than George Soros has suggested as a model for the United States, was adopted in the wake of late nineteenth century housing bubbles and has proved highly effective in preventing bubbles. At the same time, the cost of capital for mortgages in Denmark compares favorably with the rest of Europe and the United States. If a simplified regime can satisfy the needs of home buyers and owners in Denmark while achieving admirable stability, why, at least in theory, can the United States not do the same? Dodd-Frank does not even come close to offering greater simplicity. It is a massive piece of legislation. The bill does not bar nontraditional mortgage instruments; it does not even require that potential home buyers be given a lucid explanation of how a plain vanilla mortgage would compare to less traditional, higher risk alternatives. Perhaps implementing regulations could require mortgage brokers to at least offer traditional mortgages to customers who can afford them, but even that modest reform seems unlikely given the clout of the financial industry. Moreover, it is hard to imagine that courts will uphold regulations that in effect re-insert into Dodd-Frank provisions Congress quite plainly removed from it as part of the process that allowed for its ultimate passage and enactment into law. Congressional intent that Dodd-Frank be limp and lax and not terribly protective of consumers is in no way admirable, but is quite plain for all to see. Dodd-Frank also does not restrict what kinds of mortgages can be securitized or how they can be securitized. It is true that Dodd-Frank may make certain mortgages riskier than before for investors by giving borrowers who feel they were sold an unsuitable mortgage some recourse against foreclosure. But if recent history teaches us anything, it is that investors in MBS sometimes can be sold on securities based on mortgages that are in fact quite risky — indeed, that in a search for a higher rate of return, they may gravitate to such investments whether they understand what they are doing or not. We can be assured the financial industry will seek to tap the ever-present yearning for higher return. The Choice-Is-Always-Good/Innovation-Is-Always-Good Objection One central objection to a simple regime of mortgage finance is that complexity is beneficial when it gives consumers (home buyers and owners and investors) greater choice and thus allows them to maximize their preferences. After all, if choice is good, isn’t more choice better? And if innovation is good, why isn’t financial innovation in mortgages and MBS good, too? Even after the recent crises, it is still commonplace for politicians, business leaders and elite commentators to opine that financial innovation is a key American comparative advantage that we must not undermine in the interest of reform. As noted above, however, more choice does not always translate into better informed, better-reasoned choice. Moreover, even if one (unrealistically) assumed that people always do maximize their own narrowly-understood welfare through more choice, the fact is that the many people are affected by other people’s choices that impact the stability of the housing market. Children who lose their family home because a parent entered into an imprudent mortgage, neighbors whose housing values plummet and basic services disappear because of foreclosures, and retirees whose pensions go underfunded because the pension fund invested in overvalued MBS all lose out as a result of other people’s choices. Perhaps in some part because housing is a domain where such externalities abound, there is in fact a long tradition of constraining individual choice and requiring the use of certain standardized forms in the area of real property law generally and in the context of mortgages in particular. What makes a mortgage a mortgage rather than an installment land contract, legally, is that mandatory rights and obligations are read into the agreement between borrower and lender whatever the parties, as a matter of their contractual intent, actually intended. Viewed in the broader swath of Anglo-American legal history, the essence of mortgage law is legal constraint on ad hoc innovation in the interest of preserving social stability and protecting the vulnerable. Indeed, as Henry Smith of Yale Law School and Thomas Merrill of Columbia Law School have argued, what arguably distinguishes the domain of property law from that of contract law is that property law insists upon a high degree of standardization and, in that sense, simplification. Smith and Merrill root property’s traditional demand of standardization in the benefits of reducing transaction costs for third parties to property transactions, but the recent housing and MBS crises suggest that this tradition can also be defended as a means of protecting parties to property transactions from the cognitive pitfalls of complexity and from the underhandedness of those who would take advantage of those pitfalls. The recent crises also underscore the wisdom of the tradition in property of constraining and overriding private party choice in the interest of preventing or overcoming excessive fragmentation of interests in real property. The Ownership Society Objection If mortgages and MBS were standardized and simplified, the average costs of borrowed money for purchase money mortgages might not climb but it is certainly possible both that (1) some buyers would be not be able to buy as expensive a home as they otherwise would have, and (2) some buyers with poor credit histories or limited income and assets would be unable to buy a home at all. With respect to the first possibility, I think the best response is, why would that bad thing? Until very recently, the average size of new U.S. homes has steadily increased as the size of the households occupying them has declined or at most remained steady. The result is more sprawl, more fossil fuels consumption, more greenhouse gas emissions, and not necessarily more happiness, as far as anyone can objectively measure happiness. Moreover, households that have invested heavily in homes are not acted in accord with standard portfolio theory, which teaches that the best way to temper financial risks is to diversify one’s investments. From this perspective, many households that sank all their available capital and committed all their anticipated earnings in a single asset — a house — would have been much better off diversifying by buying less house while investing more in their human capital (e.g. education) or other, more liquid forms of capital (bonds, stocks, life insurance). But what about people who would be left out of the housing-ownership market altogether under a regime of only traditional mortgage instruments and straightforward, reasonably strict underwriting? The ownership-society school of social policy and popular commentary teaches that by owning homes, people achieve greater personal and familial success, communities become more stable, and social ills are reduced. If ownership equals greater individual and social welfare, is not anything that reduces that rate of ownership a bad thing? Recent scholarship calls into question the necessary connection between ownership and stability and human flourishing, but even if we accept that connection, the fact is that owning a fee simple is not the only way to gain the emotional attachment and longer-term perspective that we believe is the mechanism by which “ownership” confers individual and social benefits. In the United States, there are relatively few protections for residential renters from displacement by landlords, government action, or market forces. Most available leases are one-year or month-to-month, and there are very few protections in more than a handful of locations against landlord’s decisions not to renew leases or to drastically increase rent at the time of lease renewal. If the menu of rental arrangements available to low-income households included ones that offered more of the stability that (sometimes) is offered by a fee simple while costing less than a fee simple and thus being genuinely affordable to these households, then many of the benefits of the ownership society could be achieved. Providing people with greater ownership in their places of employment and in their local schools also could go a long way to achieving the benefits of an ownership society. The Hard Reality of Politics and the Need for Campaign Finance Reform So what is to be done? If Dodd-Frank gets us (almost) nowhere and something more radical and much more simple is needed, how can that be achieved? The answer is only through new Executive leadership or new legislation, and there is no reason, under the current politics, to anticipate either. Thus, the only “solution” is a terribly hard one: to change the politics. But as many commentators have noted, both political parties appear aligned with, if not captive to, the interests of the financial industry and the apparent goal of that industry to essentially go on now as if the housing and MBS crises never happened. At least in part, this alignment reflects the reality of the huge financial contributions that industry makes and (after Citizens United ) will be freer to make than ever before. What that means is that new legislation is needed to reform campaign finance and to pressure the Supreme Court to temper its First Amendment absolutism when the interests of large corporations are at issue. Hence the catch and the challenge: we need (at a minimum) new rules for campaign finance to get a better politics, but until we get a better politics, we cannot get the new rules. So, somehow, we need to achieve meaningful, constructive political change even under rules that have led to dominance by two parties that cannot or will not undertake the reforms that are needed for our public welfare. It is a hard challenge but our politics has overcome even harder challenges — the Great Depression, World War II, Jim Crow — and prevailed. We can do that again.

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Todd A. Solomon: Results of HRC’s 2011 Corporate Equality Index Show Employers’ Strong Commitment to Workplace Equality for LGBT Employees

November 18, 2010

The Human Rights Campaign Foundation (“HRC”) recently released the results of its 2011 Corporate Equality Index. The Index is the HRC’s nationally-recognized ranking of large employers throughout the United States on workplace equality for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (“LGBT”) individuals. Employers listed in Fortune magazine’s 1,000 largest publicly-traded businesses, American Lawyer magazine’s top 200 revenue-grossing law firms, and Forbes magazine’s 200 largest private businesses are invited to participate in the annual survey. In addition, any private sector, for-profit employer with 500 or more full time employees in the United States can request to participate. Employers are surveyed for the Index on a series of criteria that demonstrate the employer’s commitment to equal treatment of all people regardless of their sexual orientation and gender identity or expression. To score highly on the 2011 Index, employers had to offer same-sex partners of employees and their legal dependents medical, dental and vision insurance coverage as well as COBRA-equivalent continuation coverage. In addition, employers had to offer at least three of the following benefits to employees’ same-sex partners: leave equivalent to that provided under the Family Medical Leave Act, bereavement leave, employer-provided supplemental life insurance, relocation/travel assistance, adoption assistance, qualified joint and survivor annuities, qualified pre-retirement survivor annuities, retiree healthcare benefits or employee discounts. The results of the 2011 Index show that an increasing number of employers are taking action to ensure that LGBT employees and their partners are treated equally in the workplace. When the Index was first introduced in 2002, only 13 of the 319 employers surveyed received a perfect 100 score. The 2011 Index evaluated 616 employers, 337 of whom received a perfect rating. Over half of the 263 Fortune 500-ranked employers evaluated on the 2011 Index scored a perfect rating. Employers that receive a perfect rating on the Index are recognized by the HRC as one of the “Best Places to Work for LGBT Equality” and are encouraged to use this distinction in their recruitment and marketing efforts. The results of the 2011 Index reflect the significant impact that changing attitudes and strong commitments to equality are having on the lives of LGBT individuals. For example, 99% of the employers evaluated in 2011 prohibit discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation, providing important protections that are not provided under federal law to over 15 million employees. 95 percent of the employers evaluated provide health coverage to same-sex partners of employees, giving over 14 million employees access to vital medical benefits for their partners and families. Although the 2011 Index reflects great progress in advancing workplace equality for LGBT individuals, it also reveals where change continues to be needed. For example, although 99 percent of the employers surveyed prohibit workplace discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation, only 76 percent extend that protection to discrimination on the basis of gender identity. In addition, although 79 percent of the employers surveyed provide at least one type of health benefit to transgender employees, 65 percent of those employers do not provide coverage for medical services or treatments relating to gender transition. In order to continue raising the bar on the comprehensive benefits and inclusive employment practices and policies that employers must implement in order to ensure LGBT individuals are treated equally, the HRC periodically updates the criteria on which employers are evaluated for the annual Index. The next update will be to the criteria used for the 2012 Index, which will stress comprehensive employee benefits for same-sex spouses and partners, transgender-inclusive medical and short-term disability benefits, organizational competency on LGBT issues and public engagement with the LGBT community.

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IMSA President & CEO Steps Down

October 29, 2010

BETHESDA, MD–(Marketwire – October 29, 2010) –  The Insurance Marketplace Standards Association (IMSA) today announced that its President and CEO, Brian K. Atchinson, will depart on November 1st. Atchinson’s leave was first announced in September when the IMSA Board of Directors recommended that the membership dissolve IMSA and create a new voice for compliance and ethics in life insurance by forming The Compliance and Ethics Forum for Life Insurers (CEFLI).

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Video: Taxpayers Help Prudential to Profit From Slain Soldiers: Video

September 30, 2010

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — When Prudential Financial Inc. invests the death benefits owed to survivors of soldiers killed in battle, the money comes from a source with deep pockets: the U.S. government. After a U.S. soldier dies in combat — including the more than 4,000 service members who have been killed in Iraq and Afghanistan — the Department of Veterans Affairs sends Prudential the full amount of each family’s life insurance coverage, usually $400,000. Bloomberg’s Monica Bertran reports. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: McCracken Calls Sale of AIG’s Japan Units a `Good Deal’: Video

September 29, 2010

Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Jeffrey McCracken talks about American International Group Inc. possibly reaching a deal as soon as today to sell two Japanese life insurance units to Prudential Financial Inc. for about $4.8 billion in cash. McCracken speaks with Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Evans Discusses Veterans Agency’s Deal With Prudential: Video

September 14, 2010

Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s David Evans talks about an agreement between the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and Prudential Financial Inc. that enabled the insurer to withhold lump-sum payments of life insurance benefits for survivors of fallen soldiers. The veterans agency said today that Prudential will now send beneficiaries a check when they ask for a lump-sum benefit payment rather than keeping the money and mailing a checkbook. Evans speaks with Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness”. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Dan Solin: Your Friendly Life Insurance Agent Could Cost You a Bundle

August 17, 2010

This is not another blog about “buy term and invest the difference.” I believe many people would be well served by purchasing whole life insurance. Buying term insurance is often a mistake. Term insurance purchasers don’t “invest the difference.” They spend it. Even if they have the discipline to invest the difference, there’s no assurance a significant portion of the invested funds will not be lost. Term insurance gives low cost protection against premature death, but it can lull you into a false sense of security. The premiums increase as you age, making it prohibitively expensive when you need life insurance the most. Insurance is a complex product. The insurance industry likes it that way. Prospective purchasers need to be aware of a number of issues including the type of coverage, company choice, identification of “too good to be true” illustrations, assessment of required coverage and time horizon. Few insurance buyers have the sophistication to sort out these issues. The right kind of whole life policy can be a valuable part of your portfolio. The problem is you are unlikely to be presented with the “right kind” by your friendly insurance agent. I recently advised a client to seek the services of a fee-only insurance adviser prior to making a decision on a life insurance policy. Most people don’t know these advisers exist. Unlike insurance agents, they agree to act as your fiduciary, meaning they can have no conflicts of interest. Your agent is likely a representative of an insurance company. Fee-only advisers are not affiliated with any insurance company or product. They act only on your behalf. You can find a list of them here. The fee-only adviser designed a policy with a death benefit of $1.2 million, but here’s what surprised me. The cash value was almost equal to the premium paid by the end of the first year. The illustrated cash value exceeded the premiums paid by the end of the fifth year. After twenty years, it was extremely unlikely any additional premiums would ever have to be paid to keep the policy in force. At that time, the policy had a very significant cash value, with an internal rate of return in excess of the after-tax return possible in a fixed income investment of similar risk. The fee-only adviser explained this was a “blended insurance policy,” which combined whole life and term into a single policy. The commissions to the selling agent were slashed to the bone, resulting in a more rapid build up of cash value. By any measure, this policy was vastly superior to the policy my client was about to purchase from his insurance agent. When I asked the fee-only adviser why the insurance agent didn’t recommend this policy, he told me “he could, but why should he commit financial suicide?” I get howls of protest from commission based insurance agents when I suggest that an independent review of their recommendations might be in the best interest of life insurance purchasers. The agents claim they always act solely in the best interest of their clients and question the value of the fee-only adviser. The fee-only advisers tell me they rarely see a recommended policy they can’t improve. They claim if you are spending more than $10,000 a year on premiums, they can save you many times their fee. In my experience, their view has proven correct. The views set forth in this blog are the opinions of the author alone and may not represent the views of any firm or entity with whom he is affiliated. The data, information, and content on this blog are for information, education, and non-commercial purposes only. Returns from index funds do not represent the performance of any investment advisory firm. The information on this blog does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice and is limited to the dissemination of opinions on investing. No reader should construe these opinions as an offer of advisory services. Readers who require investment advice should retain the services of a competent investment professional. The information on this blog is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or class of securities mentioned herein. Furthermore, the information on this blog should not be construed as an offer of advisory services. Please note that the author does not recommend specific securities nor is he responsible for comments made by persons posting on this blog. Here is the trailer for my new book, Timeless Investment Advice .

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Video: Cline Says Regulators Boosting Retained-Asset Disclosure: Video

August 3, 2010

Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) — Jane Cline, president of the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, talks with Bloomberg’s Julie Hyman about insurance companies’ so-called retained-asset accounts. The NAIC said last week it is reviewing the accounts after Bloomberg Markets reported that the funds allow more than 100 carriers to earn income on $28 billion owed to life insurance beneficiaries. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: David Evans Discusses Cuomo Probe on Life Insurers: Video

July 29, 2010

July 29 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s David Evans talks about New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo’s fraud probe into the life insurance industry. Cuomo’s office subpoenaed Prudential Financial Inc. and MetLife Inc. for information about profits on death benefits retained from the families of deceased policyholders including military personnel. Cuomo’s investigation was prompted by a Bloomberg Markets magazine report and follows a review by the New York State Insurance Department. Evans speaks with Margaret Brennan and Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness”. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: David Evans Discusses Cuomo Probe on Life Insurers: Video

July 29, 2010

July 29 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s David Evans talks about New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo’s fraud probe into the life insurance industry. Cuomo’s office subpoenaed Prudential Financial Inc. and MetLife Inc. for information about profits on death benefits retained from the families of deceased policyholders including military personnel. Cuomo’s investigation was prompted by a Bloomberg Markets magazine report and follows a review by the New York State Insurance Department. Evans speaks with Margaret Brennan and Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness”. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Life Insurance Payouts Withheld From Families Of Fallen Soldiers

July 28, 2010

Lohman, a public health nurse who helps special-needs children, says she had always believed that her son’s life insurance funds were in a bank insured by the FDIC. That money — like $28 billion in 1 million death-benefit accounts managed by insurers — wasn’t actually sitting in a bank.

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AIG’s Benmosche Set to Outlast Predecessors in `Hot Seat’ as Insurer’s CEO

June 18, 2010

By Hugh Son June 18 (Bloomberg) — Robert Benmosche , who said the U.S. will be repaid with interest for American International Group Inc. ’s bailout, is set to become the insurer’s longest-serving chief executive officer since the firm’s near-collapse in 2008. Benmosche, 66, will begin his 12th month leading New York- based AIG in July. That is longer than predecessors Edward Liddy , who retired after about 11 months in August 2009, and Robert Willumstad , who was ousted after fewer than 100 days as a condition of the insurer’s 2008 government rescue. AIG was bailed out after losses on derivatives tied to mortgages. “Given that he survived 12 months, I’d say Benmosche learned very quickly that this is not just another CEO job,” said Phillip Phan , professor at the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School in Baltimore. “He has to create a more sustainable, smaller operation, to move away from derivatives, and he’s having to do it all in the public eye.” Benmosche must balance the demands of regulators and lawmakers while divesting AIG units to repay loans within the insurer’s $182.3 billion rescue, a goal that stymied his predecessor. Liddy, who was twice grilled by Congress over bonuses paid during his tenure, said in a farewell letter to staff that the job left him with “a few bruises.” AIG posted more than $100 billion in net losses driven by soured housing market bets in the six quarters before Benmosche, the former CEO of MetLife Inc. , took control of AIG. Weeks after starting, Benmosche had to apologize for telling staff that New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo was “unbelievably wrong” for drawing attention to workers who got retention bonuses. Benmosche then drew criticism for vacationing in Croatia in his first month at AIG. ‘Taxpayer Ire’ “The unprecedented amount of taxpayer ire is what made the job such a hot seat, but Benmosche didn’t let himself get pushed around by the New York Fed,” said Clark Troy , an analyst for research firm Aite Group. “He has this presence and force of will that imparts confidence.” The Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Treasury Department have funded AIG’s rescue. AIG has climbed about 39 percent through yesterday on the New York Stock Exchange since Aug. 7, the last trading day before Benmosche replaced Liddy. That compares with the 34 percent decline under Liddy and the approximately 90 percent plunge under Willumstad, who was ousted before he could unveil a plan to restructure AIG. Under Benmosche, AIG halted the auctions of units including a U.S. investment advisory group, a mortgage guarantor and a pair of Japanese life insurers. The CEO told employees in August that he would only sell businesses for adequate prices, and in March announced deals to sell two life insurance divisions. AIG has posted a profit in three of the previous four quarters as investment results improved. ‘You’ll Get Your Money’ “I’m confident you’ll get your money, plus a profit,” Benmosche told the Congressional Oversight Panel in Washington during a May 26 hearing to examine the AIG rescue. Benmosche negotiated a $7 million annual salary compared with $1 a year for Liddy. Benmosche has opted against holding conference calls to discuss quarterly results with investors, instead releasing audio statements . The past four CEOs all hosted calls. AIG will first repay a Fed credit line with proceeds from divesting the non-U.S. life divisions and then turn to Treasury obligations, he said. The company owes about $26 billion on a Fed credit line and $49 billion to the Treasury. Benmosche has been aided by the fact that firms including BP Plc and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have gotten more negative media attention and congressional criticism this year than AIG, Troy said. Goldman Sachs, BP Lloyd Blankfein , CEO of Goldman Sachs, testified before a Senate investigations panel in April after the New York-based bank was sued by the Securities and Exchange Commission for fraud tied to mortgage-linked assets. BP’s Tony Hayward was denounced yesterday by U.S. lawmakers for failing to answer questions about the causes of the oil well explosion in the Gulf of Mexico that killed 11 people and caused the leaking of as much as 60,000 barrels of oil a day. AIG’s agreement to sell its main Asian unit to Prudential Plc collapsed early this month, after the London-based insurer’s investors balked at the $35.5 billion price. AIG could raise the same amount in an initial public offering, the firm’s bankers have told Treasury. The agreement to sell another non-U.S. unit, American Life Insurance Co., to MetLife for $15.5 billion is expected to be completed by year-end, Benmosche has said. Benmosche said in April that he expects to remain at AIG for another year or two and he’ll help prepare the bailed-out company for his departure. ‘Appropriately Leveraged’ “Each year the demands of the job and the requirements are different as we begin to evolve from a large, giant, overleveraged company to one that is much more appropriately leveraged and a more focused company with less businesses,” Benmosche said in the April 1 interview. Benmosche is winding down the derivatives unit that brought the entire company to the brink of failure in 2008. The portfolio of trades shrank to about $755 billion on March 31 from $941 billion at the end of 2009. AIG was run for almost four decades through March 2005 by Maurice “Hank” Greenberg , who built the company into the world’s largest insurer. Martin Sullivan then held the top post for three years, until subprime-mortgage related losses led to his replacement by Willumstad in June 2008. AIG shares dropped by about half during Sullivan’s tenure. To contact the reporter on this story: Hugh Son in New York at hson1@bloomberg.net

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U.S. Stocks Drop, Treasuries Pare Losses on Greece Downgrade

June 14, 2010

By Rita Nazareth and David Merritt June 14 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks halted a global rally as Greece’s credit rating was cut and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index failed to hold above levels watched by traders who base investment decisions on charts. Treasuries pared losses, while the euro rallied on signs the region’s economy is strengthening. The S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent to 1,089.63 at 4 p.m. in New York after gaining 1.3 percent earlier to 1,105.91, near its 200-day average of about 1,108. The MSCI World Index of stocks in 24 developed nations advanced 1 percent for a fifth consecutive gain, its longest streak since October. Ten-year Treasury yields rose 2 basis points to 3.26 percent after jumping 9 basis points earlier. The euro climbed 0.9 percent to top $1.22. Benchmark indexes in the U.S. began paring gains as Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Greece’s government bond rating to junk, cutting the grade four levels to Ba1 from A3. Losses in the S&P 500 accelerated after it slipped below its June 3 closing level of 1,102.83, the day before slower-than-estimated growth in U.S. jobs sent the gauge down 3.4 percent for its biggest slump since February. “Greece is not a new story for the market and the Moody’s downgrade comes after S&P and Fitch, but the market may be sensitive to new bad news,” said Stephen Wood , who helps manage about $179 billion as chief market strategist for Russell Investments in New York. “We continue to have this tug-of-war between negative and positive information in the market.” Financial Shares Retreat JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. lost more than 1.5 percent as financial shares in the S&P 500 reversed an earlier 1.1 percent rally. Newmont Mining Corp. helped lead raw- materials producers lower as gold fell for the third time in four sessions. Gauges of raw-materials producers, financial firms and energy companies lost at least 0.5 percent to lead declines among the 10 main industry groups in the S&P 500, which did not turn negative on the day until the final half hour of trading. “It was a technical move,” Ryan Detrick , senior technical analyst at Schaeffer’s in Cincinnati, said of the late-day retreat. “We have the 200-day moving average for the S&P 500 at 1,108. Buyers are very reluctant to step in. We got Greece downgraded and there’s a feeling that the uncertainties are still out there.” U.S. stocks followed European shares higher earlier after industrial production increased more than economists forecast in April, rising 0.8 percent for an 11th month of gains, the European Union said. The Federal Reserve may say on June 16 that output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities grew 0.9 percent last month after a 0.8 percent increase in April, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Economic Recovery The S&P 500 climbed 2.5 percent last week as China’s exports jumped the most in six years, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the economic recovery is intact and commodity prices gained. Analysts have raised their average 2010 earnings growth forecasts for the S&P 500 to 32 percent from 26 percent at the end of March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The improving forecasts came even as the benchmark measure of U.S. equities retreated 13 percent between April 23 and June 4 amid concern some European nations will struggle to finance deficits. The S&P 500 is trading at about 13.4 times analysts’ earnings estimates for the next 12 months, near the lowest level since March 2009, the month the benchmark index slumped to a 12- year low. Bianco Eyes 1,300 “What we see is corporate profit growth in a very low- inflation, low-interest-rate environment,” David Bianco , head of U.S. equity strategy at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview today with Tom Keene . “By year- end, we’ll be at 1,300” for the S&P 500. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard , speaking in Tokyo today, said Europe’s debt crisis shouldn’t cause the Fed to postpone raising interest rates as the economy recovers. The central bank has kept its benchmark lending rate at a record-low range near zero since December 2008 to foster growth. Eighteen of 19 industries in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose, sending the benchmark index up 1.2 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.6 percent to the highest in almost four weeks. BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group climbed more than 2.4 percent in London. Axa SA, Europe’s second-biggest insurer, rose 3.7 percent in Paris after saying it’s in talks to sell part of its U.K. life insurance unit to Clive Cowdery ’s Resolution Ltd. for 2.75 billion pounds ($4 billion). BP Slumps BP Plc , struggling to contain its oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, slipped 9.3 percent to a 13-year low of 355.45 pence in London. President Barack Obama is demanding an escrow account for damages claims related to the worst environmental disaster in the nation’s history. Developing-nation stocks rose for a fifth day, the longest winning streak in two months, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gaining 1.4 percent. Benchmark gauges in Taiwan, South Africa, Thailand and Qatar advanced at least 1.2 percent. The yen dropped against 11 of 16 major currencies, while the euro strengthened against 11 of 16 and the dollar weakened against 12. South Korea’s won appreciated 2 percent against the dollar after policy makers said they will give banks time to meet a new ceiling on forward contracts, holding off from imposing controls on capital flows. Commodities Rally Commodity prices jumped to the highest level in a month amid signs that the improving economy will boost demand for energy, metals and crops. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials rose 1.6 percent to 259.98 in New York. Earlier, the gauge reached 260.51, the highest level since May 14. Gold was the only index component to decline. Copper futures for July delivery rose 8.8 cents, or 3 percent, to $2.992 a pound on the Comex in New York, poised for the fifth straight gain, the longest rally since early January. The metal climbed 3 percent last week. Crude oil futures for July delivery increased 1.8 percent to $75.12 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after jumping 3 percent earlier. The Belgian 10-year yield jumped 11 basis points to 3.47 percent. Flemish nationalists took the lead in Belgium ’s general elections, setting up coalition talks with French-speaking Socialists who face demands from Dutch-speaking voters to give more powers to the nation’s regions. The cost of protecting corporate bonds from default fell in the U.S. and Europe. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index Series 14, which investors use to hedge against losses or speculate on creditworthiness, declined 2.3 basis points to a mid-price of 123.1 basis points, according to Markit Group Ltd. To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net ; David Merritt in London on dmerritt1@bloomberg.net .

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Stocks, Oil Rally on Economic Optimism Treasuries Retreat

June 14, 2010

By Rita Nazareth and David Merritt June 14 (Bloomberg) — Stocks rose for a fifth day, the longest streak since October for the MSCI World Index, and commodities rallied as growth in European industrial production added to signs the global economic rebound is strengthening. The euro appreciated, the yen weakened and Treasuries fell. The MSCI World gauge of stocks in 24 developed nations gained 1.3 percent at 1:17 p.m. in New York, paring a rally of as much as 1.8 percent after Moody’s cut Greece’s credit rating. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which is trading near its lowest valuation in 15 months compared with estimated earnings, increased 0.6 percent to 1,098.01 after surging as much as 1.3 percent. Copper advanced for a fifth day, headed for the longest rally in five months. Oil trimmed its advance to 1 percent. Ten- year Treasury yields increased 6 basis points to 3.29 percent and the euro strengthened to more than $1.22. Eighteen of 19 industries in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose after industrial production increased more than economists forecast in April, rising 0.8 percent for an 11th month of gains, the European Union said. The Federal Reserve may say on June 16 that output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities grew 0.9 percent last month after a 0.8 percent increase in April, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. “Stocks are so oversold it doesn’t take a whole lot to a get a rebound,” said E. William Stone , who oversees $104 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. “The U.S. economic recovery is in place. In Europe, we got positive industrial production data. On a day lacking negative news, it won’t be that hard to get a positive move.” Rally Extended The S&P 500 climbed for a third day and added to gains from last week’s 2.5 percent rally, its best since March. A Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan report last week showed improving U.S. consumer sentiment. Apple Inc., maker of the iPhone and iPad, rallied 1.8 percent and Chevron Corp. climbed 1.3 percent to pace gains in technology and energy companies. JetBlue Airways Corp. jumped 6.3 percent and American Airlines parent AMR Corp. rallied 3 percent after Deutsche Bank AG advised buying the shares. The Dow Jones Transportation Average rose 1.8 percent today and is up 7.3 percent in 2010, compared with a 1.3 percent year-to-date drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Some traders watch the performance of airlines, railroads and trucking companies to gauge the outlook for the overall economy. U.S. equities and commodities trimmed gains today as Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Greece’s government bond ratings by four levels to Ba1 from A3. The outlook is stable, Moody’s said. Earnings Estimates Analysts have raised their average 2010 earnings growth forecasts for the S&P 500 to 32 percent from 26 percent at the end of March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The improving forecasts came even as the benchmark measure of U.S. equities retreated 13 percent between April 23 and June 4 amid concern some European nations will struggle to finance deficits. The S&P 500 is trading at about 13.5 times analysts’ earnings estimates for the next 12 months, near the lowest level since March 2009, the month the benchmark index slumped to a 12- year low. “What we see is corporate profit growth in a very low- inflation, low-interest-rate environment,” David Bianco , head of U.S. equity strategy at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview today with Tom Keene . “By year- end, we’ll be at 1,300” for the S&P 500. Interest Rate Watch Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard , speaking in Tokyo today, said Europe’s debt crisis shouldn’t cause the Fed to postpone raising interest rates as the economy recovers. The central bank has kept its benchmark lending rate at a record-low range near zero since December 2008 to foster growth. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rallied 1.2 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.6 percent to the highest in almost four weeks. BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group climbed more than 2.4 percent in London. Axa SA, Europe’s second-biggest insurer, rose 3.7 percent in Paris after saying it’s in talks to sell part of its U.K. life insurance unit to Clive Cowdery ’s Resolution Ltd. for 2.75 billion pounds ($4 billion). BP Plc , struggling to contain its oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, slipped 9.3 percent to a 13-year low of 355.45 pence in London. The company faces a U.S. deadline today for a plan to raise oil-containment capacity as President Barack Obama demands an escrow account for damages claims related to the worst environmental disaster in the nation’s history. Developing-nation stocks rose for a fifth day, the longest winning streak in two months, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gaining 1.7 percent. Benchmark gauges in Taiwan, South Africa, Thailand and Qatar advanced at least 1.2 percent. Won Rallies South Korea’s won strengthened 2 percent against the dollar after policy makers said they will give banks time to meet a new ceiling on forward contracts, holding off from imposing controls on capital flows. Copper futures for July delivery rose 7.5 cents, or 2.6 percent, to $2.979 a pound on the Comex in New York, poised for the fifth straight gain, the longest rally since early January. The metal climbed 3 percent last week. Crude oil futures for July delivery increased 1 percent to $74.54 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after jumping 3 percent earlier. The yield on the two-year Treasury note increased four basis points to 0.77 percent, and the 30-year bond yield rose seven basis points to 4.22 percent. German 10-year bunds fell, with the yield advancing seven basis points to 2.63 percent. Belgian Bonds The Belgian 10-year yield jumped 11 basis points to 3.46 percent. Flemish nationalists took the lead in Belgium ’s general elections, setting up coalition talks with French-speaking Socialists who face demands from Dutch-speaking voters to give more powers to the nation’s regions. The cost of protecting corporate bonds from default fell in the U.S. and Europe. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index Series 14, which investors use to hedge against losses or speculate on creditworthiness, declined 3 basis points to a mid-price of 122.4 basis points, according to Markit Group Ltd. In Europe, the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of credit- default swaps on 50 mostly junk-rated companies fell 21 basis points to 575, the lowest in 1 1/2 weeks. The yen dropped 0.1 percent to 91.76 per dollar, and weakened 1.5 percent against the euro to 112.64. The euro strengthened 1.4 percent to $1.2276. To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net ; David Merritt in London on dmerritt1@bloomberg.net

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Stocks, Oil Rally on Economic Optimism Treasuries Retreat

June 14, 2010

By Rita Nazareth and David Merritt June 14 (Bloomberg) — Stocks rose for a fifth day, the longest streak since October for the MSCI World Index, and commodities rallied as growth in European industrial production added to signs the global economic rebound is strengthening. The euro appreciated, the yen weakened and Treasuries fell. The MSCI World gauge of stocks in 24 developed nations gained 1.3 percent at 1:17 p.m. in New York, paring a rally of as much as 1.8 percent after Moody’s cut Greece’s credit rating. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which is trading near its lowest valuation in 15 months compared with estimated earnings, increased 0.6 percent to 1,098.01 after surging as much as 1.3 percent. Copper advanced for a fifth day, headed for the longest rally in five months. Oil trimmed its advance to 1 percent. Ten- year Treasury yields increased 6 basis points to 3.29 percent and the euro strengthened to more than $1.22. Eighteen of 19 industries in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose after industrial production increased more than economists forecast in April, rising 0.8 percent for an 11th month of gains, the European Union said. The Federal Reserve may say on June 16 that output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities grew 0.9 percent last month after a 0.8 percent increase in April, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. “Stocks are so oversold it doesn’t take a whole lot to a get a rebound,” said E. William Stone , who oversees $104 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. “The U.S. economic recovery is in place. In Europe, we got positive industrial production data. On a day lacking negative news, it won’t be that hard to get a positive move.” Rally Extended The S&P 500 climbed for a third day and added to gains from last week’s 2.5 percent rally, its best since March. A Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan report last week showed improving U.S. consumer sentiment. Apple Inc., maker of the iPhone and iPad, rallied 1.8 percent and Chevron Corp. climbed 1.3 percent to pace gains in technology and energy companies. JetBlue Airways Corp. jumped 6.3 percent and American Airlines parent AMR Corp. rallied 3 percent after Deutsche Bank AG advised buying the shares. The Dow Jones Transportation Average rose 1.8 percent today and is up 7.3 percent in 2010, compared with a 1.3 percent year-to-date drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Some traders watch the performance of airlines, railroads and trucking companies to gauge the outlook for the overall economy. U.S. equities and commodities trimmed gains today as Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Greece’s government bond ratings by four levels to Ba1 from A3. The outlook is stable, Moody’s said. Earnings Estimates Analysts have raised their average 2010 earnings growth forecasts for the S&P 500 to 32 percent from 26 percent at the end of March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The improving forecasts came even as the benchmark measure of U.S. equities retreated 13 percent between April 23 and June 4 amid concern some European nations will struggle to finance deficits. The S&P 500 is trading at about 13.5 times analysts’ earnings estimates for the next 12 months, near the lowest level since March 2009, the month the benchmark index slumped to a 12- year low. “What we see is corporate profit growth in a very low- inflation, low-interest-rate environment,” David Bianco , head of U.S. equity strategy at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview today with Tom Keene . “By year- end, we’ll be at 1,300” for the S&P 500. Interest Rate Watch Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard , speaking in Tokyo today, said Europe’s debt crisis shouldn’t cause the Fed to postpone raising interest rates as the economy recovers. The central bank has kept its benchmark lending rate at a record-low range near zero since December 2008 to foster growth. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rallied 1.2 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.6 percent to the highest in almost four weeks. BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group climbed more than 2.4 percent in London. Axa SA, Europe’s second-biggest insurer, rose 3.7 percent in Paris after saying it’s in talks to sell part of its U.K. life insurance unit to Clive Cowdery ’s Resolution Ltd. for 2.75 billion pounds ($4 billion). BP Plc , struggling to contain its oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, slipped 9.3 percent to a 13-year low of 355.45 pence in London. The company faces a U.S. deadline today for a plan to raise oil-containment capacity as President Barack Obama demands an escrow account for damages claims related to the worst environmental disaster in the nation’s history. Developing-nation stocks rose for a fifth day, the longest winning streak in two months, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gaining 1.7 percent. Benchmark gauges in Taiwan, South Africa, Thailand and Qatar advanced at least 1.2 percent. Won Rallies South Korea’s won strengthened 2 percent against the dollar after policy makers said they will give banks time to meet a new ceiling on forward contracts, holding off from imposing controls on capital flows. Copper futures for July delivery rose 7.5 cents, or 2.6 percent, to $2.979 a pound on the Comex in New York, poised for the fifth straight gain, the longest rally since early January. The metal climbed 3 percent last week. Crude oil futures for July delivery increased 1 percent to $74.54 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after jumping 3 percent earlier. The yield on the two-year Treasury note increased four basis points to 0.77 percent, and the 30-year bond yield rose seven basis points to 4.22 percent. German 10-year bunds fell, with the yield advancing seven basis points to 2.63 percent. Belgian Bonds The Belgian 10-year yield jumped 11 basis points to 3.46 percent. Flemish nationalists took the lead in Belgium ’s general elections, setting up coalition talks with French-speaking Socialists who face demands from Dutch-speaking voters to give more powers to the nation’s regions. The cost of protecting corporate bonds from default fell in the U.S. and Europe. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index Series 14, which investors use to hedge against losses or speculate on creditworthiness, declined 3 basis points to a mid-price of 122.4 basis points, according to Markit Group Ltd. In Europe, the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of credit- default swaps on 50 mostly junk-rated companies fell 21 basis points to 575, the lowest in 1 1/2 weeks. The yen dropped 0.1 percent to 91.76 per dollar, and weakened 1.5 percent against the euro to 112.64. The euro strengthened 1.4 percent to $1.2276. To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net ; David Merritt in London on dmerritt1@bloomberg.net

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Stocks, Commodities Advance on Outlook for Global Recovery Yen Declines

June 14, 2010

By Rita Nazareth and David Merritt June 14 (Bloomberg) — Stocks rose for a fifth day, the longest streak since October for the MSCI World Index, and commodities rallied on speculation government reports this week will show the global economic rebound is strengthening. The yen weakened and Treasuries fell. The MSCI World gauge of stocks in 24 developed nations gained 1.2 percent at 9:38 a.m. in New York and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 0.5 percent. Copper rallied for a fifth day in London, oil climbed 2.5 percent and sugar jumped for an eighth consecutive session. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed six basis points to 3.3 percent and the yen weakened against all 16 of its most-traded counterparts. The MSCI World advanced above the highest closing level since May 19 after industrial production increased more than economists forecast in April, rising 0.8 percent for an 11th month of gains, the European Union said today. The Federal Reserve may say on June 16 that output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities grew 0.9 percent last month after a 0.8 percent increase in April, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. “Stocks are so oversold it doesn’t take a whole lot to a get a rebound,” said E. William Stone , who oversees $104 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. “The U.S. economic recovery is in place. In Europe, we got positive industrial production data. On a day lacking negative news, it won’t be that hard to get a positive move.” Rally Extended The S&P 500 rose for a third day and added to gains from last week’s 2.5 percent rally, its best since March. A Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan report last week showed improving U.S. consumer sentiment. Alcoa Inc., the biggest U.S. aluminum producer, rose 1 percent and Exxon Mobil Corp. climbed 0.5 percent to pace an advance in commodity producers. Analysts have raised their average 2010 earnings growth forecasts for the S&P 500 to 32 percent from 26 percent at the end of March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The improving forecasts came even as the benchmark measure of U.S. equities retreated 13 percent between April 23 and June 4 amid concern some European nations will struggle to finance deficits. The S&P 500 is trading at about 13.4 times analysts’ earnings estimates for the next 12 months, near the lowest level since March 2009. “Fundamentals remain supportive for equities and equity volatility should revert to lower levels,” Nomura Holdings Inc.’s London-based strategist Ian Scott wrote in a note dated June 11. “The coming earnings announcement season should provide the catalyst for equity investors to focus on the value on offer and for equities to recover.” Fed Watch Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard , speaking in Tokyo today, said Europe’s debt crisis shouldn’t cause the Fed to postpone raising interest rates as the economy recovers. The central bank has kept its benchmark lending rate at a record-low range near zero since December 2008 to foster growth. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rallied 1 percent as 18 of 19 industry groups gained, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.5 percent to the highest in almost four weeks. BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group climbed more than 2.4 percent in London. Axa SA, Europe’s second-biggest insurer, rose 2.6 percent in Paris after saying it’s in talks to sell part of its U.K. life insurance unit to Clive Cowdery ’s Resolution Ltd. for 2.75 billion pounds ($4 billion). BP Slumps BP Plc , struggling to contain its oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, slipped 6.5 percent in London. The company faces a U.S. deadline today for a plan to raise oil-containment capacity as President Barack Obama demands an escrow account for damages claims related to the worst environmental disaster in the nation’s history. Developing-nation stocks rose for a fifth day, the longest winning streak in two months, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gaining 1.7 percent. Benchmark gauges in Taiwan, South Africa, Thailand and Qatar advanced more than 1 percent. South Korea’s won strengthened 2 percent against the dollar, the best performer among 26 emerging-market currencies, after policy makers said they will give banks time to meet a new ceiling on forward contracts, holding off from imposing controls on capital flows Copper for delivery in three months gained 2.1 percent to $6,614.50 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Prices have climbed for five days in a row, the longest advance since Jan. 4. Crude oil futures for July delivery increased $1.85 to $75.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. White, or refined, sugar for August delivery jumped as much as 0.7 percent to $527.40 a metric ton, the highest price since March, on the Liffe exchange in London. Prices have climbed for eight days, the longest advance since June 2008. Treasuries Drop The yield on the two-year Treasury note increased four basis points to 0.77 percent, and the 30-year bond yield rose eight basis points to 4.23 percent. German 10-year bunds fell, with the yield advancing seven basis points to 2.64 percent. The Belgian 10-year yield jumped 11 basis points to 3.47 percent. Flemish nationalists took the lead in Belgium ’s general elections, setting up coalition talks with French-speaking Socialists who face demands from Dutch-speaking voters to give more powers to the nation’s regions. The cost of protecting European corporate bonds from default fell, with the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of credit- default swaps on 50 mostly junk-rated companies declining 21 basis points to 575, the lowest in 1 1/2 weeks, according to Markit Group Ltd. The yen dropped 0.2 percent to 91.79 per dollar, and weakened 1.3 percent against the euro to 112.45. The dollar depreciated 1.1 percent to $1.2238 versus the euro. The pound climbed 1.4 percent to $1.4748 and gained 0.2 percent to 83.1 pence per euro after the Office for Budget Responsibility said Britain’s deficit will be 22 billion pounds ($32 billion) lower than the Treasury had forecast for 2010-2015. To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net ; David Merritt in London on dmerritt1@bloomberg.net

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Stocks, Commodities Advance on Outlook for Global Recovery Yen Declines

June 14, 2010

By Rita Nazareth and David Merritt June 14 (Bloomberg) — Stocks rose for a fifth day, the longest streak since October for the MSCI World Index, and commodities rallied on speculation government reports this week will show the global economic rebound is strengthening. The yen weakened and Treasuries fell. The MSCI World gauge of stocks in 24 developed nations gained 1.2 percent at 9:38 a.m. in New York and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 0.5 percent. Copper rallied for a fifth day in London, oil climbed 2.5 percent and sugar jumped for an eighth consecutive session. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed six basis points to 3.3 percent and the yen weakened against all 16 of its most-traded counterparts. The MSCI World advanced above the highest closing level since May 19 after industrial production increased more than economists forecast in April, rising 0.8 percent for an 11th month of gains, the European Union said today. The Federal Reserve may say on June 16 that output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities grew 0.9 percent last month after a 0.8 percent increase in April, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. “Stocks are so oversold it doesn’t take a whole lot to a get a rebound,” said E. William Stone , who oversees $104 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. “The U.S. economic recovery is in place. In Europe, we got positive industrial production data. On a day lacking negative news, it won’t be that hard to get a positive move.” Rally Extended The S&P 500 rose for a third day and added to gains from last week’s 2.5 percent rally, its best since March. A Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan report last week showed improving U.S. consumer sentiment. Alcoa Inc., the biggest U.S. aluminum producer, rose 1 percent and Exxon Mobil Corp. climbed 0.5 percent to pace an advance in commodity producers. Analysts have raised their average 2010 earnings growth forecasts for the S&P 500 to 32 percent from 26 percent at the end of March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The improving forecasts came even as the benchmark measure of U.S. equities retreated 13 percent between April 23 and June 4 amid concern some European nations will struggle to finance deficits. The S&P 500 is trading at about 13.4 times analysts’ earnings estimates for the next 12 months, near the lowest level since March 2009. “Fundamentals remain supportive for equities and equity volatility should revert to lower levels,” Nomura Holdings Inc.’s London-based strategist Ian Scott wrote in a note dated June 11. “The coming earnings announcement season should provide the catalyst for equity investors to focus on the value on offer and for equities to recover.” Fed Watch Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard , speaking in Tokyo today, said Europe’s debt crisis shouldn’t cause the Fed to postpone raising interest rates as the economy recovers. The central bank has kept its benchmark lending rate at a record-low range near zero since December 2008 to foster growth. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rallied 1 percent as 18 of 19 industry groups gained, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.5 percent to the highest in almost four weeks. BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group climbed more than 2.4 percent in London. Axa SA, Europe’s second-biggest insurer, rose 2.6 percent in Paris after saying it’s in talks to sell part of its U.K. life insurance unit to Clive Cowdery ’s Resolution Ltd. for 2.75 billion pounds ($4 billion). BP Slumps BP Plc , struggling to contain its oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, slipped 6.5 percent in London. The company faces a U.S. deadline today for a plan to raise oil-containment capacity as President Barack Obama demands an escrow account for damages claims related to the worst environmental disaster in the nation’s history. Developing-nation stocks rose for a fifth day, the longest winning streak in two months, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gaining 1.7 percent. Benchmark gauges in Taiwan, South Africa, Thailand and Qatar advanced more than 1 percent. South Korea’s won strengthened 2 percent against the dollar, the best performer among 26 emerging-market currencies, after policy makers said they will give banks time to meet a new ceiling on forward contracts, holding off from imposing controls on capital flows Copper for delivery in three months gained 2.1 percent to $6,614.50 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Prices have climbed for five days in a row, the longest advance since Jan. 4. Crude oil futures for July delivery increased $1.85 to $75.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. White, or refined, sugar for August delivery jumped as much as 0.7 percent to $527.40 a metric ton, the highest price since March, on the Liffe exchange in London. Prices have climbed for eight days, the longest advance since June 2008. Treasuries Drop The yield on the two-year Treasury note increased four basis points to 0.77 percent, and the 30-year bond yield rose eight basis points to 4.23 percent. German 10-year bunds fell, with the yield advancing seven basis points to 2.64 percent. The Belgian 10-year yield jumped 11 basis points to 3.47 percent. Flemish nationalists took the lead in Belgium ’s general elections, setting up coalition talks with French-speaking Socialists who face demands from Dutch-speaking voters to give more powers to the nation’s regions. The cost of protecting European corporate bonds from default fell, with the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of credit- default swaps on 50 mostly junk-rated companies declining 21 basis points to 575, the lowest in 1 1/2 weeks, according to Markit Group Ltd. The yen dropped 0.2 percent to 91.79 per dollar, and weakened 1.3 percent against the euro to 112.45. The dollar depreciated 1.1 percent to $1.2238 versus the euro. The pound climbed 1.4 percent to $1.4748 and gained 0.2 percent to 83.1 pence per euro after the Office for Budget Responsibility said Britain’s deficit will be 22 billion pounds ($32 billion) lower than the Treasury had forecast for 2010-2015. To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net ; David Merritt in London on dmerritt1@bloomberg.net

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Axa Said in Talks to Sell U.K. Life Unit to Resolution for $4.1 Billion

June 13, 2010

By Kevin Crowley and Fabio Benedetti-Valentini June 13 (Bloomberg) — Axa SA , Europe’s second-biggest insurer, is in talks to sell most of its U.K. life insurance unit to Clive Cowdery’s Resolution Ltd. for about 2.8 billion pounds ($4.1 billion), two people briefed on the talks said. The discussions are at an advanced stage and both companies are aiming to reach an agreement by the end of the month, said the people, who declined to be named because the talks are private. Resolution, the investment firm Cowdery started two years ago, is likely to fund the purchase by selling new stock to existing shareholders, one of the people said. European insurers including Axa and Prudential Plc are seeking to free up capital reserves used to back policies in slower-growing markets like the U.K. to fund growth in Asia, where margins are wider. Resolution paid 1.9 billion pounds for Britain’s Friends Provident Plc last year, the first of as many as four purchases it’s planning as it aims to merge U.K. life insurers and sell the enlarged group back to investors by 2013. “For Axa, the U.K. wasn’t the most successful and profitable country,” said Karim Bertoni , who helps manage $18.5 billion at Banque Syz & Co. in Geneva. “Resolution is very committed to gain market share in the U.K., and a deal would allow Axa to move some capital to other regions with better profitability.” Axa’s life insurance division is the eighth-biggest in the U.K., according to data compiled by the Association of British Insurers. Resolution’s offer values the unit at 80 percent of embedded value, a measure insurers use to calculate future revenue from policies, one of the people said. Resolution bought Friends Provident for 65 percent of its embedded value. Wealth Management Officials at both companies declined to comment. Resolution may seek to raise as much as 2.2 billion pounds in a rights offering to fund the purchase, the Sunday Express reported, without saying where it obtained the information. Resolution is seeking to buy Axa’s with-profits fund, one of the people said. The Paris-based insurer would go on selling unit-linked funds, wealth management products and non-life insurance in the U.K., one of the people said. Axa’s U.K. life and savings operations posted a 33 million- euro ($39 million) net loss in 2009, compared with a 257 million-euro profit a year earlier. Axa’s gross annual life and savings sales in the U.K. fell 22 percent to 2.78 billion euros as investment fees and premiums dropped. John Tiner Axa SA is trying to acquire Axa Asia Pacific Holdings Ltd.’s operations in eight Asian countries, including China, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia. The insurer already owns 54 percent of the Melbourne-based company. Resolution closed 0.2 pence, or 0.3 percent, lower at 60.7 pence in London trading on June 11, valuing the company at 1.46 billion pounds. Axa rose 2.3 percent to 13.115 euros in Paris trading, giving the company a market value of 30 billion euros. Resolution Chief Executive Officer John Tiner , who served as CEO of the Financial Services Authority from 2003 to 2007, said in March he aims to make two or more purchases, adding to the Friends Provident purchase. After creating a life insurer worth 10 billion pounds, Tiner intends to sell it by 2013, he said. Resolution said in a June 11 statement it plans to consolidate the U.K. businesses of Axa, France’s biggest insurer, with its Friends Provident operations. There was no certainty of a sale, it said. “The combination of the two businesses would create one of the U.K.’s largest providers of protection products and group pensions services,” Resolution said. Resolution posted net income of 1.16 billion pounds in 2009, compared with a 1 million-pound loss in 2008. First-quarter insurance sales rose 19 percent to 178 million pounds, as interest rates at record lows pushed British savers to seek higher returns in pension and savings products rather than hold their assets in cash. Standard Life Plc , St James’s Place Plc and Legal & General Group Plc, which also sell life insurance in the U.K., all posted higher-than-expected sales in the first quarter. To contact the reporter on this story: Kevin Crowley in London at kcrowley1@bloomberg.net Jon Menon in London at jmenon1@bloomberg.net

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Resolution Says It’s in Talks About Axa U.K. Life Insurance Transaction

June 11, 2010

By Mark Rohner June 12 (Bloomberg) — Resolution Ltd., the U.K. buyout firm founded by Clive Cowdery, said it’s in talks on a potential acquisition of Axa SA’s British life insurance operations. “If implemented, this transaction would result in the acquisition by Resolution of the majority of Axa’s life assurance operations in the U.K., including its businesses in the risk areas of protection and annuities and also its group pensions business,” Guernsey, Channel Island-based Resolution said in an e-mailed statement yesterday. Resolution intends to consolidate the U.K. businesses of Axa, France’s biggest insurer, with its Friends Provident operations, the statement said. Resolution said the announcement was “in response to recent press speculation” and there is “no certainty these discussions will result in a transaction.” The Telegraph reported yesterday that Cowdery was offering 2.5 billion pounds ($3.6 billion) for Axa’s U.K. life insurance businesses, without saying where it got the information. To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Rohner in Washington at mrohner@bloomberg.net

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AIG Said to Weigh Sale of Stake in $1.9 Billion Morgan Apartment Venture

May 25, 2010

By David M. Levitt and Hugh Son May 25 (Bloomberg) — American International Group Inc. is weighing the sale of its stake in a portfolio of almost 17,000 apartments purchased when property values were near a peak, said two people with knowledge of the discussions. AIG’s real estate arm and Morgan Properties agreed in June 2007 to acquire 86 apartment complexes, mostly in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, from Kushner Cos. for about $1.9 billion, including debt. Morgan may buy the majority of the bailed-out insurer’s interest in the joint venture, said the people, who asked not to be identified because talks are private. The people said they didn’t know what price AIG is seeking. AIG Chief Executive Officer Robert Benmosche has decided the New York-based insurer’s real estate holdings aren’t essential and may be sold to help repay loans within a $182.3 billion government rescue, said one of the people. U.S. apartment values rebounded by 11 percent in the six months ending March 31, after falling 40 percent since their first- quarter 2007 peak, according to Moody’s Investors Service . “There’s people out there operating as if we’ve seen a bottom in that subset of commercial real estate,” said Neal Elkin , president of Real Estate Analytics LLC, a New York firm that provides commercial property data. Morgan, the King of Prussia, Pennsylvania-based property manager, sued AIG in 2009 for delayed payments on a four-year, $127 million renovation plan for the 16,784 apartments. AIG told Morgan that after its 2008 rescue, the insurer’s government overseers were blocking payments, according to the suit. ‘Mega Real Estate’ AIG joined with Morgan in May 2007, and wanted to buy the Kushner portfolio after the insurer previously failed to secure a “mega real estate transaction,” according to the complaint. The joint venture raised $1.5 billion of debt from firms including Fannie Mae and Wachovia Corp., Morgan said in the suit. The rest came from a $614 million equity commitment from AIG and $25 million from the housing manager. Morgan called the apartments “workforce housing” for families earning about $50,000 a year. Mark Herr , an AIG spokesman, declined to comment. The company’s Global Real Estate unit manages about $24 billion in real estate located in 50 countries for clients and AIG subsidiaries, according to its website. Morgan had no comment. The recession curbed demand for U.S. apartments, office space, retail shops, hotels and warehouses as jobs disappeared and consumers cut spending. Apartments may lead a rebound in commercial real estate as vacancies peak in 2010 and the economy adds jobs, property research firm Reis Inc. said May 19. $60 Billion AIG has struck deals to raise more than $60 billion since its September 2008 bailout. The largest agreements were for two non-U.S. life insurance divisions, AIA Group Ltd. and American Life Insurance Co., with customers spanning Asia, Europe and Latin America. AIG, once the world’s largest insurer by assets, needed a bailout after losses from soured housing market bets sapped the company of cash. The rescue includes a $60 billion Federal Reserve credit line , a Treasury Department investment of as much as $69.8 billion and up to $52.5 billion to buy mortgage-linked assets owned or backed by the company. Morgan Properties, founded by Mitchell Morgan in 1985, is the 41st largest U.S. apartment owner, with 30,627 units in 10 states as of Jan. 1, according to the annual National Multi Housing Council survey. The biggest is Boston Capital, with 162,677 units. To contact the reporters on this story: David M. Levitt in New York at dlevitt@bloomberg.net ; Hugh Son in New York at hson1@bloomberg.net .

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Prudential Plc Delays $21 Billion Rights Offer as Regulators Query Capital

May 5, 2010

By Kevin Crowley May 5 (Bloomberg) — Prudential Plc , the British insurer buying American International Group Inc.’s main Asian unit, delayed the start of its record $21 billion rights offering until U.K. regulators agree the combined company will have sufficient capital. Prudential still expects the $35.5 billion purchase of AIA to be completed in the third quarter, spokesman Robin Tozer said. He was unable to give a timeframe for when the company will start the share sale. “It’s come out of the blue,” said Paul Mumford , who helps manage 600 million pounds ($908 million) at Cavendish Asset Management Ltd. including Prudential shares. “Everyone was expecting the prospectus to come out this morning. It’s quite embarrassing.” The insurer is betting the purchase of AIA Group Ltd., the biggest acquisition in its 162-year history, will provide long- term revenue growth in the world’s fastest growing region and offset weaker demand for life insurance in the U.S. and U.K. Chief Executive Officer Tidjane Thiam, who took over the role October, needs 75 percent of investors to approve the rights offer at a shareholder vote on May 27. “We can only assume that the Financial Services Authority wants the company to have more capital or a higher quality form of capital, but both would suggest a bigger rights issue than initially planned,” said Marcus Barnard , a London-based analyst at Oriel Securities Ltd. with a “sell” rating on the stock. “If the market sees this as a sign that the deal might not happen then perversely the shares could rise.” Shareholder Opposition Prudential rose as much as 3 percent in London trading and was down 1.1 percent at 552.5 pence as of 9.22 a.m., giving the company a market value of about 13.7 billion pounds. The stock closed at 602.5 pence on Feb. 26, the last day before the fundraising was announced. British investors including Brown Shipley & Co. Ltd. and Killik & Co. have questioned the price being paid for AIA and the risk involved in such a large acquisition. Separately, Capital Group Cos., Prudential’s biggest shareholder, was last month reported by the Times of London to have held talks with other investors about breaking up the U.K. insurer. Prudential was planning to release the pricing of its rights offer before the market opened today. The FSA has tightened its capital rules on financial-services companies following the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. None of the major U.K. insurers was forced to raise capital from shareholders during the credit crunch. Toby Parker , a spokesman for the FSA, declined to comment. Including fees to underwriters, the rights offering will surpass the 13.5 billion-pound share sale by Lloyds Banking Group Plc in November. Credit Suisse AG , HSBC Holdings Plc and JPMorgan Cazenove Holdings are managing the offering, which is fully underwritten by 33 banks. To contact the reporter on this story: Kevin Crowley in London at kcrowley1@bloomberg.net

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Prudential Delays Start of $21 Billion Rights Offer Amid Talks on Capital

May 5, 2010

By Kevin Crowley May 5 (Bloomberg) — Prudential Plc , the British insurer buying American International Group Inc.’s main Asian unit, delayed the start of a $21 billion rights offer pending discussions with the U.K. regulator about its capital position. “Prudential does not expect this to affect the overall timing for the completion of the transaction,” the London-based company said today in a statement. The talks with the Financial Services Authority relate to “the capital position of the enlarged group” after the takeover, Prudential said. The insurer is betting the purchase of AIA Group Ltd., the biggest acquisition in its 162-year history, will provide long- term revenue growth in the world’s fastest growing region and offset weaker demand for life insurance in the U.S. and U.K. Chief Executive Officer Tidjane Thiam, who took over the role October, needs 75 percent of investors to approve the rights offer at a shareholder vote on May 27. “It’s very unusual for the FSA to come into the frame at this stage in the deal,” said Paul Mumford, who helps manage 600 million pounds ($910 million) at Cavendish Asset Management Ltd. including Prudential shares. “It’s come out of the blue. Everyone was expecting the prospectus to come out this morning. It’s quite embarrassing for the company.” Including fees to underwriters, the rights offering will surpass the 13.5 billion-pound ($20.5 billion) share sale by Lloyds Banking Group Plc in November. Credit Suisse AG , HSBC Holdings Plc and JPMorgan Cazenove Holdings are managing the deal, which is fully underwritten by 33 banks. Bigger Rights Offer? “We can only assume that the FSA wants the company to have more capital or a higher quality form of capital, but both would suggest a bigger rights issue than initially planned,” said Marcus Barnard , a London-based analyst at Oriel Securities Ltd. with a “sell” rating on the stock. “If the market sees this as a sign that the deal might not happen then perversely the shares could rise.” Prudential rose 9.5 pence, or 1.7 percent, to 568 pence at 8:08 a.m. in London trading. The stock closed at 602.5 pence on Feb. 26, the last day before the fundraising was announced. To contact the reporter on this story: Kevin Crowley in London at kcrowley1@bloomberg.net

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Generali Names Perissinotto Sole Chief Executive; Geronzi Becomes Chairman

April 24, 2010

By Sonia Sirletti April 25 (Bloomberg) — Assicurazioni Generali SpA , the largest Italian insurer, named Cesare Geronzi , the outgoing chairman of its largest shareholder, Mediobanca SpA, as its new chairman and Giovanni Perissinotto as its sole Chief Executive. Geronzi, 75, replaces 85-year-old Antoine Bernheim , who was named honorary president at Generali’s annual meeting yesterday in Trieste, Italy. Perissinotto’s former co-CEO, Sergio Balbinot , now will lead the company’s international insurance units. “We expect the effect of the Geronzi’s appointment to be negative for the shares,” Fabrizio Croce , a Zurich-based analyst with Kepler Capital Markets SA with a “hold” rating on the stock, wrote in a note April 23. “Investment funds, Anglo- Saxon investors and ethical funds could have a potential issue with the appointment and may reduce their positions.” Some investors are concerned with the influence Milan-based Mediobanca, Italy’s biggest investment bank, has over the insurer. Geronzi yesterday said Generali doesn’t plan a capital increase, which might dilute Mediobanca’s 14 percent stake. He also ruled out a merger with Mediobanca. Still, the decision to make Perissinotto, 56, the company’s single chief executive “will satisfy investors worried by Mediobanca’s strength on the board,” Edoardo Liuni an analyst at NuovoMercato.it said in a phone interview after the appointments. “Perissinotto will ensure independent leadership at the insurer.” ‘Punished’ Bernheim, who was chairman for eight years, said he regretted Mediobanca’s decision to replace him. “Sometimes when you work well, you are punished,” said Bernheim, who has spent almost four decades with the company. “This is an example.” He didn’t elaborate the comment. Geronzi, speaking at a press conference after the annual meeting, said that Bernheim’s words were understandable given his long tenure at the insurer. “I appreciate Bernheim, as witnessed by his appointment as honorary president,” he said. Bernheim was moved to tears several times during his one- and-a-half hour speech that was translated from French. He said he wished “all the best” to the new management. Geronzi was reinstated as chairman of Mediobanca by investors in 2007 after a conviction in connection with the bankruptcy of property and tourism company Italcase. He was acquitted of the charges in 2009 on appeal. Geronzi, who won’t have an executive role at Generali, was also formerly a Bank of Italy official and chairman of Rome-based Capitalia SpA. Nagel, Caltagirone, Bollore Generali appointed non-executive deputy chairmen at the annual meeting: Mediobanca CEO Alberto Nagel ; Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone , the chairman of publishing and media company Caltagirone Editore Spa; and French billionaire Vincent Bollore . Enel SpA CEO Paolo Scaroni , Banco Espanol de Credito SA Chairwoman Ana Patricia Botin , Tod’s SpA Chairman Diego della Valle, and De Agostini SpA CEO Lorenzo Pellicioli also were named board members. Generali said first-quarter gross premiums rose 16 percent, boosted by its life-insurance business and a recovery of Italian operations. Total premiums increased to 20.8 billion euros ($27.8 billion) in the first three months of 2010 from the year earlier, Perissinotto said. Italian premiums rose 22 percent to 5.4 billion euros because of a 34 percent increase in life- insurance business. “We have seen positive elements in the first quarter,” he said. “We hope for a consolidation of the economic recovery that would allow us to increase our profitability.” Greece, Spain, Ireland Generali has declined 11 percent this year, compared with the 2.2 percent increase in the Bloomberg Europe 500 Insurance Index. The company has a market value of 26 billion euros. Generali has 900 million euros of “exposure” to Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland, the company said yesterday. Generali , which will release its first-quarter results on May 12, is expanding in emerging markets, including China and the Middle East, as it recovers from the economic crisis. Perissinotto said that the external growth is a priority for Generali. The insurer wants to increase its business in Russia, where it owns a 38.5 percent holding in Ingosstrakh. Perissinotto said he aims to resume talks with Oleg Deripaska , who owns the remainder, about raising the stake. Generali doesn’t plan to boost its stake in Banco Santander SA , Perissinotto said. To contact the reporter on this story: Sonia Sirletti in Milan at ssirletti@bloomberg.net

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Berkowitz’s Fairholme Is Second-Biggest AIG Investor to U.S. Government

April 12, 2010

By Hugh Son and David Henry April 12 (Bloomberg) — Bruce Berkowitz ’s Fairholme Capital Management bought about 15 million shares of American International Group Inc. as the investor bet on a rebound of the bailed-out insurer. The holding is second in size only to the U.S. government’s stake of about 80 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The investment was disclosed today in a filing listing holdings as of March 31. Fairholme began acquiring the securities in the second half of 2009 “as we started to see cash flows of AIG turn positive,” Berkowitz said in a March 15 interview. “It is still a good company with a good global brand.” The stake was more than 13 million shares, Berkowitz said that day. The 15 million shares are valued at about $620 million based on today’s price of $41.22 on the New York Stock Exchange at 4:15 p.m. in composite trading . The stock has gained about 37 this year as Chief Executive Officer Robert Benmosche struck deals to sell two non-U.S. life insurance divisions for about $51 billion to help repay the company’s bailout. The insurer was rescued in 2008 with a package that swelled to $182.3 billion. AIG has “done a reasonable job of walling off the remaining risks” after a bailout designed to shield the insurer and banks that did business with the company from losses on mortgage-related securities, Berkowitz said in the March 15 interview. To contact the reporter on this story: Hugh Son in New York at hson1@bloomberg.net

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Takeovers Creep Higher as More Cross-Border, Hostile Deals Herald Recovery

March 31, 2010

By Serena Saitto April 1 (Bloomberg) — Mergers and acquisitions gained momentum in the first quarter with more than 2,034 cross-border transactions and 10 hostile takeovers signaling a recovery from the worst deal market in six years. Global takeovers rose 5 percent to $498.24 billion from a year ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Purchases by companies outside their home markets more than doubled to $249 billion, while $17.46 billion of hostile acquisitions were announced compared with $4.29 billion a year earlier. Chief executive officers are gaining confidence as stock markets rally and a thaw in credit markets makes it easier to fund deals. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 4.9 percent in the quarter, extending last year’s 23 percent climb. Interest rates slashed during the global economic crisis are at historic lows in the U.S., the U.K. and the 16-nation euro region. “Assuming the economy doesn’t double dip, we are cautiously optimistic for the rest of the year,” said Mark Shafir , global head of M&A at Citigroup Inc. , which advised American International Group Inc. on the $35.5 billion sale of its Asian life insurance unit to Prudential Plc, the quarter’s largest deal. Mergers and acquisitions may increase 15 percent to 20 percent from 2009, said Shafir, returning to “more familiar conditions” than last year, when takeovers slumped 27 percent to $1.8 trillion, the lowest level since 2003 Hostile Takeovers A pickup in hostile takeovers that began in the fourth quarter “reflects increased confidence on the part of some corporate clients,” said Shafir, whose firm advised Kraft Foods Inc. on its $21.4 billion hostile takeover of Cadbury Plc. The companies reached a deal in February after a four-month battle. Citigroup, based in New York, ranked fifth among takeover advisers in the quarter after Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Zurich- based Credit Suisse Group AG, Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG and JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bloomberg data show. This year’s hostile deals include Astellas Pharma Inc. ’s $3.5 billion bid for OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. in March and Air Products & Chemicals Inc.’s $5.1 billion unsolicited offer for Airgas Inc. in February. Citibank is advising Astellas. “We’re likely to see more hostile M&A activity because companies have access to capital that allows them to pay in cash,” said Jeffrey Kaplan , global head of M&A and corporate finance at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which is advising Airgas in its defense against Air Products. “Equity values have increased such that buyers are willing to use their stock as well.” Debt Markets Company debt rallied for the fourth-straight quarter as U.S. consumer confidence gained in March and corporate defaults declined from record levels, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index. Borrowing costs declined in the first quarter to the lowest since 2005. Kraft sold $9.5 billion of debt to finance the cash portion of its takeover of Cadbury in the biggest bond offering by a non-financial company in almost a year. The market recovery also created buying opportunities for companies looking to expand abroad. More than half of the 20 biggest deals of the quarter were cross border, including the $10.7 billion acquisition of Zain Africa BV by Billionaire Sunil Mittal’s Bharti Airtel Ltd. ‘Opportunistic’ Buying Deals in Latin America got off to the best start in at least a decade, driven by consolidation in the commodities, food and telecommunications industries in Brazil and Mexico. America Movil SAB’s $25.7 billion all-stock purchase of Carso Global Telecom SAB in Mexico was the No. 2 takeover of the quarter. ”This is an opportunistic moment in which buyers can pay a full price at fair multiples,” said Andrew Bednar , head of M&A at Perella Weinberg Partners LP, the New York-based boutique investment bank. ”As M&A heats up the equity markets follow and it becomes more challenging to pay an acceptable premium without correspondingly higher multiples.” Perella advised Merck KGaA on its $6 billion acquisition of Millipore Corp. in March. Inc., people close to the situation said. Merck’s offer was 15.3 times Millipore’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, according to Bloomberg data. Merck offered 42 percent more than the shares were worth before the deal was announced. The average premium paid for companies in the first quarter was 20 percent, down from 31.44 percent in the same period a year ago, according to Bloomberg data. The decline signals a return to a more normal conditions, said Citigroup’s Shafir. While the market for takeovers is improving, the recovery has been less robust than after the downturn in 2003. In the first quarter of 2004, takeovers more than doubled compared with the year-ago quarter. European Firms ”I expected M&A activity in the U.S. to be more vibrant at this point of the year,” said Jeff Raich , head of M&A at Moelis & Co., a New York-based investment bank that advises on deals. U.S. takeovers rose 33 percent to $250.5 billion in the quarter, while acquisitions involving Asian companies more than doubled to $185.5 billion, according to Bloomberg data. Europe also curbed the recovery. Takeovers by European companies were flat at $185.7 billion in the quarter, as Greece’s fiscal crisis and a slower economic recovery made executives more cautious about pursuing deals. Completing deals remains a challenge. Siemens AG shelved a possible sale of its hearing-aid unit in March after bids fell short of the 2 billion euros ($2.7 billion) sought, two people familiar with the plan said. In February, Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery Co. couldn’t win Chinese approval to buy General Motors Co.’s Hummer, the maker of military-inspired sport-utility vehicles. ”In spite of a high level of dialogue going on, these discussions have not resulted in many announced transactions,” said Moelis’s Raich. Private Equity LyondellBasell Industries AF rejected a purchase offer by India’s Reliance Industries Ltd. in March, saying it had a superior recovery plan for the chemical maker. Lyondell filed for bankruptcy in January 2009 after a leveraged buyout in 2007 saddled it with more than $22 billion of debt. Takeovers by private equity-firms are starting to return after the market froze during the credit crunch. Since Jan. 1, companies have raised more than $5 billion in the high-yield, high-risk leveraged-loan market to finance buyouts, Bloomberg data show. No similar transactions were arranged in the comparable period last year. ”The environment for M&A is healthy with deals that make good strategic sense,” said Bruce Evans , head of M&A for the Americas at Deutsche Bank. “While leveraged buyout activity has returned, we will not see the volume back to the level we saw in 2007 anytime soon.” To contact the reporter on this story: Serena Saitto in New York at ssaitto@bloomberg.net .

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Primerica Sells at a Discount in IPO as Citigroup Dismantles Weill’s Deals

March 30, 2010

By Michael Tsang, Craig Trudell and Michael J. Moore March 30 (Bloomberg) — Primerica Inc., the insurance business that Sanford I. “Sandy” Weill used to build Citigroup Inc., is selling shares in an initial public offering at a discount to its competitors. Primerica plans to raise $252 million tomorrow, a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission and Bloomberg data showed. At the middle of its price range, the Duluth, Georgia- based distributor of consumer-finance products from term-life insurance to mutual funds would be valued at 6.74 times earnings after accounting for its planned reorganization. That’s 29 percent less than the median for U.S. life and health-insurance providers, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Citigroup Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit is dismantling the company Weill built spending about $50 billion on Travelers Corp., Salomon Inc. and Citicorp during the 1990s to offer everything from insurance to stock broking and branch banking. The sale comes after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s rally to an 18-month high spurred a rebound in the IPO market. “The Primerica deal reflects a shift from the financial supermarket model , where instead of being good at a lot of things, a company like Citigroup ended up being mediocre at everything,” said James Dailey , who oversees $140 million as chief investment officer at TEAM Financial Asset Management LLC in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. “Primerica could fetch a reasonable price. It’s been around a long time, its brand is established.” Primerica is one of four U.S. companies scheduled to sell shares through initial offerings this week. IPO Rebound All five IPOs since March 15 have priced within or above their forecast range as the S&P 500 extended a rebound from its 2010 low on Feb. 8 to 11 percent . The previous 14 deals since the start of the year had been cut by 24 percent on average, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Carlyle Group’s Windsor, Connecticut-based SS&C Technologies Holdings Inc. , which sells trading and investment management software to the financial industry, and Meru Networks Inc. of Sunnyvale, California, which makes Wi-Fi networking equipment, are scheduled to price their IPOs today. Carlyle, the Washington-based buyout firm that oversees $89 billion, won’t sell SS&C shares in the $161 million offering. Tengion Inc. , the East Norriton, Pennsylvania-based company trying to grow replacement organs and tissues, is also set to hold its IPO this week, according to Bloomberg data. Primerica , which has 100,000 representatives selling financial services to households with $30,000 to $100,000 in annual income, earned $495 million in 2009, an almost threefold increase from a year earlier. Relative Value Net income rebounded after declining 72 percent in 2008, when Primerica wrote down some of its goodwill, or the amount paid above the net asset value in an acquisition. As part of its reorganization, Primerica will transfer 80 percent to 90 percent of the “risk and rewards” from the life insurance policies that it sold and distribute $622 million in assets to Citigroup before the IPO, according to the filing. That includes a $454 million one-time dividend to Citigroup. At the middle of its $12 to $14 price range, the company is valued at 6.74 times its 2009 per-share income of $1.93, after taking into account a decrease in revenue and profit that would have taken place if the reorganization occurred on Jan. 1, 2009, according to its filing and data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s less than the median 9.52 times price-earnings ratio for 23 publicly-traded U.S. life and health-insurance providers, Bloomberg data show. Prudential, Ameriprise Prudential Financial Inc. of Newark, New Jersey, the second-largest life insurer, and Ameriprise Financial Inc. , the Minneapolis-based financial planning and services firm, command higher valuations, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Primerica lists the two companies among its biggest competitors. Buyers of Primerica’s IPO will own 24 percent of the insurance firm after the offering. They will also be investing alongside New York-based Warburg Pincus LLC, which oversees $30 billion. The private- equity firm agreed to buy 17.2 million shares, or a 23 percent stake, in a private sale at the IPO midpoint price, and warrants to purchase 4.3 million shares at a 20 percent premium. Warburg’s stake may increase to 33 percent if the firm exercises its right to buy additional shares from Citigroup. “It’s a ‘fire sale’ by Citi,” Francis Gaskins , president of IPOdesktop.com in Marina del Rey, California, said in an e- mail. Also, “the IPO investor can get in on the same terms as Warburg. There appears little, if any, risk in this IPO at $13.” Credit Markets All proceeds will go to New York-based Citigroup, which is serving as the lead underwriter for the sale. Primerica is part of Citi Holdings, the collection of businesses that Citigroup’s Pandit said he would sell, wind down or restructure. Pandit is dismantling Weill’s empire after loans and investments tied to the U.S. subprime mortgage market led to $47.6 billion in losses since the last quarter of 2007. Citigroup took a taxpayer-funded bailout after the credit markets froze, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed and Bear Stearns Cos. and Merrill Lynch & Co. were forced to sell themselves. All three companies were based in New York. Weill used Primerica to build Citigroup through a series of acquisitions. In 1992, Primerica bought a 27 percent stake in Travelers, then took over the company a year later for $3.3 billion, keeping Travelers’ name and umbrella logo. The company acquired Salomon in 1997 and in 1998 merged with Citicorp in a $37.4 billion deal to create Citigroup. “This provides an important message that Citi is prepared to shed assets which clearly do not fit the current strategy, even if they have well-known brands,” said Richard Staite , a London-based analyst who covers financial institutions at Atlantic Equities LLP. “It’s a high-profile sale.” To contact the reporters on this story: Michael Tsang in New York at mtsang1@bloomberg.net ; Craig Trudell in New York at ctrudell1@bloomberg.net ; Michael J. Moore in New York at mmoore55@bloomberg.net .

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Video: Kiss’s Simmons Says Wealthy Must Know `Your Choices’: Video

March 19, 2010

March 19 (Bloomberg) — Gene Simmons, singer and bassist for the rock band Kiss and co-founder of Cool Springs Life Equity Strategy, and Samuel Watson, chief executive officer of the firm, talk with Bloomberg’s Margaret Brennan about life insurance planning. Cool Springs offers loans to life-insurance policyholders against their eventual payout. The company says it can help clients minimize estate taxes and eliminate life insurance premium payments. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Berkowitz Invests in AIG, Says Bailed-Out Insurer `Still a Good Company’

March 15, 2010

By David Henry March 15 (Bloomberg) — Bruce Berkowitz , the head of Fairholme Capital Management who was named Morningstar Inc.’s domestic stock mutual fund manager of the decade, said today that he bought “significant” stakes in American International Group Inc. shares, convertible debt and bonds. Berkowitz’s mutual funds and managed accounts now own more than 13 million shares of the bailed out insurer and “hundreds of millions of dollars of the debt ,” he said in a telephone interview today. Fairholme began acquiring the securities in the second half of 2009 “as we started to see cash flows of AIG turn positive,” Berkowitz said. “It is still a good company with a good global brand.” He said he has not disclosed the stakes in public reports. AIG’s stock and bonds rallied after the insurer announced agreements this month to sell its two biggest non-U.S. life insurance divisions for a combined $51 billion. The New York- based company struck deals to sell AIA Group Ltd. to Prudential Plc and American Life Insurance Co. to MetLife Inc. as AIG Chief Executive Officer Robert Benmosche focuses on property-casualty coverage and U.S. life insurance. The insurer has climbed about 20 percent in 2010 after plunging more than 95 percent in the three years ended Dec. 31. The company gained $1.59 to $35.82 at 3 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading . AIG has “done a reasonable job of walling off the remaining risks” after a $182.3 billion U.S. rescue designed to shield the insurer and banks that did business with the company from losses on mortgage-related securities, Berkowitz said. ‘Going to Take Some Time’ The insurer, which still owes more than $40 billion to the Treasury Department and about $25 billion on a Federal Reserve credit line, may raise funds from private investors , Berkowitz said. He said he expects to be a long-term shareholder because “it is going to take some time for AIG to fully recover.” The insurer agreed in 2008 to turn over a stake of almost 80 percent to the U.S. in exchange for the bailout. AIG has benefited in the past 12 months from the rebound in investment holdings. Private equity funds gained $290 million in the fourth quarter, compared with a loss of $673 million in the year-earlier period, the insurer said last month. Hedge funds contributed $154 million after a loss of $1.02 billion. AIG’s annual net loss narrowed to $10.9 billion for 2009 from $99.3 billion in 2008. The insurer earned $6.2 billion in 2007. Morningstar, the Chicago-based research firm, named Berkowitz domestic stock fund manager of the decade in January. His Fairholme Fund earned an average of 13 percent in the past decade, compared with the 1 percent loss by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Morningstar reported his AIG stake earlier today on its Web site. To contact the reporter on this story: David Henry in New York at dhenry19@bloomberg.net ;

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U.S. Stocks Advance to 17-Month High on Economic Confidence, Paced by AIG

March 13, 2010

By Craig Trudell March 13 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, pushing the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a 17-month high, as Citigroup Inc. led a rally among banks and data boosted confidence that the economic recovery is sustainable. Citigroup rallied 13 percent on speculation the U.S. government may sell its stake and after Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit said the bank will be consistently profitable. American International Group Inc., the bailed-out insurer, surged 22 percent after selling a division to MetLife Inc. for $15.5 billion. Home Depot Inc. and McDonald’s Corp. each rose at least 2.8 percent after U.S. retail sales unexpectedly increased in February. The S&P 500 climbed 1 percent to 1,149.99 this week. It closed at 1,150.24 on March 11, the highest level since October 2008, and has now surged 70 percent since its bear-market low on March 9, 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 58.49 points, or 0.6 percent, to 10,624.69. “The market forecast an apocalyptic, utopian scenario one year ago, and that proved to be inaccurate,” said Stephen Wood , who helps manage $176 billion as chief market strategist for Russell Investments. “A big percentage of what we’ve seen over the last year is the market correcting this incorrect forecast. We were wrong, and we need to get back to a more accurate pricing of the current environment.” Jobs, Takeovers The S&P 500 has risen 9 of the past 11 days after reports showed the labor market and consumer confidence are improving and takeovers bolstered optimism that the economy is gaining strength. The stock index had fallen 8.1 percent between Jan. 19 and Feb. 8 on concern Greece’s budget crisis would throttle the recovery. Stocks rose this week even after inflation in China accelerated more than economists estimated, spurring speculation that the government will boost interest rates to slow the world’s fastest-growing major economy. Central banks including the Federal Reserve have kept rates low to stimulate the economy out of the worst contraction since the Great Depression. The Fed has pledged to keep its target rate for overnight loans between banks low for an “extended period.” “The endpoint of the ‘extended period’ is certainly a lot closer than it was six months ago,” Russell’s Wood said. The Fed’s next rate decision is scheduled for March 16. The central bank won’t raise rates until November, according to forecasts by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Government Sale Citigroup advanced 13 percent to $3.97 and closed at $4.18 on March 11, the highest price since Nov. 24. Pandit said he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the government were considering a sale of its 27 percent stake. AIG soared 22 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $34.23 after the insurer sold American Life Insurance Co. to MetLife, the bailed-out company’s second divestiture of a non-U.S. life insurance unit this month. Retailers advanced after Americans braved blizzards and overcame job concerns to propel sales in February, pointing to a broadening in growth that will help sustain the expansion. Purchases at stores unexpectedly climbed 0.3 percent, the fourth gain in five months, Commerce Department figures showed. Home Depot, the world’s largest home-improvement retailer, rose 2.8 percent to $32.45. McDonald’s, the biggest fast-food chain, climbed 2.9 percent to $65.53. McDonald’s said global sales rose 4.8 percent in February, topping some analysts’ estimates. Forecasting Gains Barton Biggs , the hedge-fund manager who recommended buying U.S. stocks in March of last year when the S&P 500 sank to a 12- year low, said American equities may rise another 10 percent to 15 percent over the next couple of months. “I’m very struck by the level of bearishness everywhere I go,” said Biggs, who runs New York-based hedge fund Traxis Partners LP. “I’m not obsessed with history. I’m bullish because I think the global economic recovery is on track and is going to be surprisingly strong. The world was falling apart in 2009. There’s been a tremendous change.” Boeing Co. climbed 2.8 percent to $69.83. The second- largest commercial planemaker said it plans to ramp up production of its 787 Dreamliner to 2 1/2 a month by August as it works toward building 10 of the composite-plastic jets each month by 2013 and reclaiming the top delivery spot next year from Airbus SAS. Cisco Systems Inc. jumped 2.7 percent to $25.88. The biggest maker of networking gear introduced an Internet router starting at $90,000 that will let Web users download movies, songs and data faster to computers and mobile devices. Sprint Nextel Co. led telephone companies to the biggest gain among 10 industries in the S&P 500. The third-largest U.S. wireless company said it will pay off debt and control expenses . To contact the reporter on this story: Craig Trudell at ctrudell1@bloomberg.net .

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Citigroup Cuts Yield on $2 Billion TruPS Offering to 8.5%: Credit Markets

March 10, 2010

By Pierre Paulden and Caroline Salas March 10 (Bloomberg) — Citigroup Inc. , seeking capital after repaying bailout funds to the Treasury, is selling trust preferred securities as rising investor demand drives borrowing costs to near the lowest in almost five years. The bank plans to issue as much as $2 billion of the securities, known as TruPS, as soon as today, according to a person familiar with the offering who declined to be identified because terms aren’t set. The 30-year fixed-to-floating rate securities may initially yield about 8.875 percent, another person said. Citigroup, 27 percent owned by the U.S. government, is issuing the debt after borrowers sold $13.9 billion of U.S. corporate bonds yesterday, the busiest day in more than a month. The New York-based bank’s offering shows that liquidity is improving, which will help the economy, said Daniel Fuss, vice chairman at Loomis Sayles & Co. in Boston. “It’s wonderful news for Citigroup and also shows markets are functioning very well,” said Fuss, whose Loomis Sayles Bond Fund is in the 97th percentile among peers this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Citigroup is selling the TruPS following a $7.6 billion loss in the fourth quarter after it repaid $20 billion of the securities issued under the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, set up in late 2008 to support financial firms and markets. “It’s a capital structure need,” said David Hendler , the head of U.S. financial services research at CreditSights Inc. in New York. “It’s not as dilutive like common equity issuance and they’ve already done a ton of that.” Novartis, MGM Mirage Yields on corporate bonds are near five-year lows, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Corporate Index. They fell to 4.015 percent on Feb. 26, the lowest since May 31, 2005, and were 4.023 percent as of March 9. Average spreads over Treasuries fell to 1.6 percentage points, matching the lowest this year. Elsewhere in credit markets, Novartis AG, Switzerland’s second-biggest drugmaker, and MGM Mirage, the largest casino owner on the Las Vegas strip, led the busiest day for U.S. corporate bond sales since Feb. 4, Bloomberg data show. Novartis sold $5 billion of 3-, 5- and 10-year senior notes for its acquisition of Alcon Inc., the world’s largest eye-care company. MGM Mirage issued $845 million of 10-year bonds to repay loans. American International Group Inc. bondholders reaped at least $3.2 billion after agreeing to sell its two largest non- U.S. life insurance divisions for $51 billion, Bloomberg data show. Sales in Europe In Europe yesterday, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. led 10 sales totaling 7 billion euros ($9.5 billion), the most this year, Bloomberg data show. New York-based Goldman Sachs, the most profitable securities firm in Wall Street history, priced 1.25 billion euros of seven-year debt in its first benchmark deal in the currency in five months. Asian companies are selling record amounts of dollar- denominated bonds amid the lowest relative borrowing costs in more than two years and demand from international investors. BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Ltd., the Hong Kong unit of Bank of China Ltd ., and Chinese developer Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd. led Asia-Pacific borrowers selling $38.4 billion of dollar debt this year, the fastest start on record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Sales climbed 35 percent from $28.4 billion in the same period last year, when they slumped 22 percent after the seizure in credit markets. Nakheel PJSC bonds, part of Dubai World’s planned $26 billion debt restructuring, climbed the most in two months yesterday after JPMorgan Chase & Co. said creditors may get paid face value. The developer’s $750 million sukuk, or Islamic bond, added 5 cents, the most since Jan. 6, to 56.25 cents on the dollar, prices compiled by Bloomberg show. Low Interest Rates Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said low U.S. interest rates are likely to be needed “for some time” as high unemployment lingers and inflation stays below his target. “With the unemployment rate at 9.7 percent and inflation significantly under my benchmark for price stability, there is no conflict between our policy goals,” Evans said in the text of a speech in Arlington, Virginia. Weakness in the job market, including long-term unemployment, means that “this accommodation will likely be appropriate for some time,” he said. In the loan market, Anheuser-Busch InBev NV, the biggest beer maker, will cut at least $90 million from annual interest costs by refinancing $17.2 billion of debt it took when the company was formed in 2008. Maker of Budweiser Lenders to the maker of Budweiser set interest at 117.5 basis points over benchmark rates on three-year term loans, and 97.5 basis points on a five-year revolving credit line, according to two people with direct knowledge of the deal. That compares with a margin of 175 basis points the company is paying on its existing debt. The cost of insuring against default on European and Asian corporate bonds fell today. The Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings fell 5 basis points to 407 basis points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The Markit iTraxx Japan index dropped 2 basis points to 121 basis points in Tokyo, according to BNP Paribas SA prices. The cost of protecting against U.S. corporate defaults rose yesterday. The Markit CDX North America Investment-Grade Index, linked to credit-default swaps on 125 companies, increased 1.2 basis point to 83.7 basis points, according to CMA DataVision. The Markit iTraxx Europe index of swaps on 125 companies with investment-grade ratings was little changed at 74 basis points. ‘Screaming Bargain’ Credit swaps pay the buyer face value if a borrower defaults in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent. A basis point equals $1,000 a year on a contract protecting against default on $10 million of debt for five years. AIG said March 1 it was selling AIA Group Ltd. to Prudential Plc for $35.5 billion. A week later, MetLife Inc. agreed to buy American Life Insurance Co. for $15.5 billion. AIG’s $78 billion of bonds surged to 18-month highs since Feb. 26, according to Bloomberg data. The bailed out New York- based firm’s debt is the best performer this month through yesterday on Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. Citigroup is the sole bookrunner on its sale of TruPS, the company said in a prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing didn’t specify the amount of the sale. Citigroup shares rose 26 cents, or 7.3 percent, to $3.82 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading yesterday, the biggest rise since August, Bloomberg data show. “People are looking at Citi more as a stable to hopefully gradually growing entity,” Hendler said. The stock is a “screaming bargain,” CreditSights analysts wrote in a March 8 report. The bank raised more than $80 billion of new capital last year, increasing the number of shares outstanding during the last three years sixfold to almost 30 billion. Its book value per share — its net worth, divided by total shares outstanding — tumbled to $5.35 as of Dec. 31 from $24.18 at the end of 2006. Citigroup’s $2.35 billion of 8.3 percent fixed-to-floating bonds due in 2057 rose 1.4 cent to 96.5 cents on the dollar, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The hybrid debt has more than tripled in price in the last year from 30.5 cents, Trace data show. To contact the reporters on this story: Pierre Paulden in New York at ppaulden@bloomberg.net ; Caroline Salas in New York at csalas1@bloomberg.net

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AIG’s `Money in the Door’ Asset Sales Garner $3.2 Billion for Bondholders

March 10, 2010

By Bryan Keogh, Hugh Son and John Detrixhe March 10 (Bloomberg) — American International Group Inc. bondholders reaped at least $3.2 billion after the bailed-out company announced deals to sell its two largest non-U.S. life insurance divisions for $51 billion. AIG’s $78 billion of bonds surged to 18-month highs since Feb. 26, the last trading day before the insurer disclosed the first of the two divestitures, according to Bloomberg data. The New York-based firm’s debt is the best performer this month through yesterday on Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. Its subordinated debt jumped as much as 13 cents on the dollar. The insurer, once the world’s largest, said March 1 it was selling AIA Group Ltd. to Prudential Plc for $35.5 billion. A week later, MetLife Inc. agreed to buy AIG’s American Life Insurance Co. for $15.5 billion. After the transactions, AIG will have “more than sufficient” assets to repay senior debt, according to analysts at CreditSights Inc. “That’s money in the door,” said Jason Brady , who oversees $8 billion in fixed-income securities including AIG debt at Santa Fe, New Mexico-based Thornburg Investment Management Inc. “The assets that they have on their books may actually be worth something, which ultimately is good for everybody, but especially for bondholders.” AIG’s $4 billion of 8.175 percent junior subordinated debentures due in 2058 have soared 13 cents to 79.5 cents on the dollar since Feb. 26, for a paper gain of $520 million, according to Trace, the bond-pricing system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The securities traded at a low of 12.5 cents in April, Bloomberg data show. ‘It’s Been Amazing’ “It’s been amazing,” said Daniel Fuss , vice chairman of Boston-based Loomis Sayles & Co., which manages more than $140 billion, including AIG debt. “It looks like they might’ve made it. They got fair or good prices for those assets.” AIG speculative-grade debt returned 6.1 percent, including reinvested interest, since Feb. 28, the best gain of the 50 biggest issuers in Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global High- Yield index. The insurer’s investment-grade bonds rallied 4.8 percent, compared with a gain of 0.108 percent for the Global Broad Market Corporate Index. Bondholders’ gain of at least $3.2 billion is based on the change in market value since Feb. 26 for the $71 billion of AIG debentures for which prices were available, or about 90 percent of total bonds outstanding, according to Bloomberg data. AIG has struck deals to raise $63 billion since its September 2008 bailout. The largest agreements were for AIA, with customers in nations including China, India and Vietnam, and Alico, which operates in more than 50 countries including parts of Europe, Latin America and Japan. Proceeds from AIA and Alico will pay down most of the funds AIG drew from a $60 billion Federal Reserve credit line . Bailed Out AIG, which turned over a stake of almost 80 percent to the U.S. as part of its $182.3 billion bailout, owes more than $40 billion to the Treasury. The bailout also includes about $52.5 billion to buy mortgage-linked assets owned or backed by AIG. After the Alico and AIA deals are completed, AIG should have $114.5 billion in assets to cover its debt in a “best case” scenario, or 1.8 times its senior debt, according to a report from New York-based CreditSights. In a “mid case” that assumes the assets are worth about 25 percent less, AIG should be able to cover 130 percent of the debt, according to the March 1 report. The asset sales go a “long way” toward repaying the Fed credit line, said Tom Walsh , head of U.S. high-grade research at Barclays Capital in New York. ‘The Upside’ “The prices are viewed by the market as being favorable for AIG because there were some numbers thrown around over the course of many months that were lower,” he said. “The upside came to fruition.” AIG shares have surged 32 percent to $32.77 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading since Feb. 26. Credit-default swaps protecting against a default by AIG have plunged 200 basis points to 351 basis points, the lowest since before the bailout, according to CMA DataVision. That means it would cost the equivalent of $351,000 a year to protect $10 million of AIG debt against default for five years. Chief Executive Officer Robert Benmosche still must halt losses at AIG’s consumer lender and mortgage guarantor and find a new CEO for Los Angeles-based International Lease Finance Corp. , the plane-leasing that said in February that CEO Steven Udvar-Hazy was stepping down. AIG posted a fourth-quarter net loss of $8.87 billion on Feb. 26, which narrowed from $61.7 billion a year earlier when AIG recorded the biggest loss in U.S. corporate history. The wider-than-expected loss in the three months ended Dec. 31 included $6.7 billion in charges fueled by paying down the Fed credit line. “The credit quality is tough,” Brady said. “It’s a really big company with some really big liabilities and some significant issues. It’s not for the faint of heart, that’s for sure.” To contact the reporters on this story: Bryan Keogh in London at bkeogh4@bloomberg.net ; Hugh Son in New York at hson1@bloomberg.net ; John Detrixhe in New York at jdetrixhe1@bloomberg.net

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MetLife’s $16 Billion Surge in Corporate Debt Holdings Bolstered AIG Bid

March 8, 2010

By Hugh Son, John Detrixhe and Andrew Frye March 8 (Bloomberg) — MetLife Inc. , the insurer that increased its bid to acquire a unit from American International Group Inc., was bolstered by more than $16 billion of gains in its corporate bond portfolio in the last nine months of 2009. MetLife will pay about $15.5 billion for an American International Group Inc. unit with operations in more than 50 countries, the companies said today. That is about $4 billion more than the New York-based company offered in a preliminary bid for American Life Insurance Co. a year ago, according to people with knowledge of the negotiations who declined to be identified because talks were private. MetLife’s book value per share, a measure of assets minus liabilities watched by ratings firms and investors, rose about 44 percent in the three quarters ended Dec. 31 as recovering debt markets buoyed the value of its corporate bond portfolio to more than $100 billion. The rebound contributed to a 55 percent surge in MetLife shares in the period, helping the insurer as it pays $8.7 billion in equity securities as part of the AIG deal. “I’m sure it helped,” MetLife Chief Financial Officer William Wheeler said today of the rally in asset prices. “When the mark on our general account was a lot lower in the early part of 2009, of course that was directly tied to, or directly influenced, our stock price,” he said in an interview. Corporate bonds returned a record 26 percent including reinvested interest last year, compared with a 10.9 percent loss in 2008, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index. Prudential Plc’s Rebound MetLife, the largest U.S. life insurer, had a net unrealized gain of about $900 million on the bonds as of Dec. 31, compared with a $15.4 billion unrealized loss at the end of March 2009, according to regulatory filings. The unrealized figures reflect market fluctuations that aren’t counted toward earnings. “MetLife has a lot more confidence in their portfolio, which is clearly making them a bit more aggressive in trying to build out their international brand,” said Clark Troy , a senior analyst based in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, for Aite Group, a research firm. “The corporate bond market was obviously a strong spot through 2009.” Prudential Plc , which is buying AIG’s largest non-U.S. life unit, returned to profit in 2009 as asset values rebounded, posting net income of 676 million pounds ($1 billion), compared with a 396 million pound loss in 2008. Prudential, Britain’s largest insurer, agreed March 1 to pay $35.5 billion for AIG’s AIA Group Ltd. AIG had planned an initial public offering for AIA this year after an auction of the business previously failed to turn up bids that matched what company executives thought the firm was worth. Prudential shares doubled in the 12 months ended Feb. 26, helping the insurer to make a cash-and-stock offer that convinced AIG to abandon the IPO plan. ‘More Comfortable’ “As their portfolios came back, people got a lot more comfortable to stop hoarding cash and use it for investment purposes and acquisitions,” said Hector Cuellar , president of McGladrey Capital Markets LLC, the Costa Mesa, California investment bank. MetLife has about $3 billion in excess cash at its holding company that could be deployed in a deal, Wheeler said on a Feb. 3 conference call with analysts. Chief Executive Officer Robert Henrikson shunned U.S. bailout cash and raised capital from debt and equity investors to weather the stock and bond slumps in 2008 and early 2009. “The front-and-center concern for life companies is how rating agencies and regulators view their capital position,” said Donald Light , senior analyst at Boston-based consulting firm Celent. “To the degree investments have come back, they don’t have to look over their shoulders as much, and this gives them more latitude to make investments for the long term.” ‘Execution Risk’ Fitch affirmed MetLife’s long-term A rating after the Alico deal was announced, saying future investment losses are expected to be manageable. Moody’s Investors Service lowered MetLife’s outlook to negative, citing “substantial corporate integration and execution risk.” Standard & Poor’s said in a statement it was keeping its MetLife ratings on negative watch. The industry held about $4.6 trillion in assets at the end of 2008, with the largest share, 42 percent, in corporate debt, according to data from the American Council of Life Insurers. The companies also invest in stocks, government bonds and commercial mortgages to back policies. The rise in bond values has made insurers more comfortable taking on rivals’ assets through acquisitions, said Douglas Meyer , a Fitch Ratings analyst. There’s less “uncertainty over potential losses that they might be inheriting,” he said. Bailed Out MetLife made a preliminary offer of about $11.2 billion for Alico, which has been for sale since October 2008, people familiar with the bid said a year ago. AIG halted talks with two unnamed bidders after the company’s March 2009 bailout, a company executive told employees the week of that rescue. “Our stock was in the 20s then,” Wheeler said today of last year’s talks. “As we were negotiating this transaction it was in the mid 30s. That alone, I think, accounts for the entire difference” in the prices considered last year and the final purchase figure, Wheeler said. MetLife advanced $1.64, or 4.2 percent, to $40.56 at 12:18 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The March 2009 bailout, AIG’s fourth, was structured partly to limit pressure on the insurer to sell assets when potential buyers were hobbled by their own writedowns. The rescue included an agreement to place Alico and AIA into Federal Reserve- controlled vehicles to pay down AIG’s debts. AIG has said that $9 billion from a sale or initial public offering of Alico and $16 billion from AIA would go toward repaying Fed assistance. AIG reduced its draw on a Fed credit line by $25 billion in December when it turned over stakes in Alico and AIA, its two largest non-U.S. life insurance units. To contact the reporters on this story: Hugh Son in New York at hson1@bloomberg.net ; John Detrixhe in New York at jdetrixhe1@bloomberg.net ; Andrew Frye in New York at afrye@bloomberg.net .

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Latin America M&A Jumps in Best Start Since 2000 as Brazil, Mexico Recover

March 5, 2010

By Serena Saitto March 5 (Bloomberg) — Takeovers in Latin America are off to the best start in at least a decade, bucking a global slump, as economic recoveries in Brazil and Mexico spur consolidation in the telecommunications, food and commodities industries. America Movil SAB’s $25.7 billion purchase of Carso Global Telecom SAB in Mexico was the largest in the region this year and the second biggest globally. Latin America tallied 192 announced deals worth $72 billion since Jan. 1, the most in Bloomberg data going back 10 years and the only region to see an increase in transactions this year from the end of 2009. More than a third of 2010’s transactions were in Brazil, where the economy is rebounding from a recession, the currency is up 32 percent against the dollar in the past 12 months and interest rates are at record lows. The region may have its best year for acquisitions since 2007, said Udi Margulies , head of Latin American M&A for Barclays Capital in New York. That year takeovers in the region totaled $123.5 billion. “International companies are increasingly interested in investing in resource-rich Latin America,” said Nicolas Aguzin , the region’s chief executive officer for New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. “At the same time, Latin American companies are expanding abroad to become global leaders in their sector.” Deal Volume Falls Mexican and Brazilian companies were the top acquirers in the region with $55 billion worth of deals. Buyers in Latin America paid 7.44 times earnings before interest, taxes, amortization and depreciation, the lowest ratio for any area except Asia, data compiled by Bloomberg show. In the U.S., buyers paid on average 10.87 times Ebitda. Buyers from Europe also acquired companies in Latin America this year, including Heineken NV of Amsterdam and Royal Dutch Shell PLC. Global M&A volume fell 27 percent to $1.81 trillion last year, the lowest level since 2003, as the financial crisis froze credit. Latin American deals’ volume declined 9.5 percent to $115 billion. The region is having its best overall quarter since the last three months of 2006, when there were $98.6 billion worth of deals, Bloomberg data show. Takeovers are increasing as economists surveyed by the central bank forecast Brazil’s economy, Latin America’s largest, will grow 5.5 percent this year after shrinking each of the first three quarters last year from the same period in 2008. Mexican Growth Mexico’s government raised its estimate last month for 2010 economic growth to 3.9 percent from 3 percent, citing signs of a recovery in domestic and international demand. Gross domestic product shrank 6.5 percent last year, the country’s worst annual slump since 1932. “The increased competition for local assets and the region’s declining risk perception is driving acquisition prices up,” said Martin Sanchez, the head of Latin America mergers and acquisitions at Bank of America Corp. in New York. Investor optimism over Brazil’s recovery has been tempered by concern that China, the country’s biggest trading partner, may further curb bank lending to slow growth. Brazil’s presidential elections in October and the end of economic stimulus programs worldwide may “reduce visibility for the second half of this year,” said Charles Stewart , Morgan Stanley’s head of Latin American investment banking in Sao Paulo, who relocated from New York in 2008. Resource Play America Movil’s purchase of Carso Global Telecom in January was the second biggest globally after Prudential Plc’s $35.5 billion acquisition of American International Group Inc.’s Asian life insurance unit AIA Group Ltd. Heineken bought Fomento Economico Mexicano SAB, Mexico’s second-largest brewer, the same month for about $7.7 billion to tap faster growth in Latin America. Rio de Janeiro-based Vale SA, the world’s largest iron-ore producer, bought the Brazilian fertilizer assets of White Plains, New York-based Bunge Ltd. for $3.8 billion in cash. Royal Dutch Shell formed a $12 billion ethanol joint venture with Barra Bonita, Brazil-based Cosan SA Industria & Comercio to share control of the world’s largest sugar cane processor. “International investors are looking for opportunities in Brazil,” said Daniel Weinstein, co-head of investment banking for Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Sao Paulo. “At the same time, local companies are looking for synergies abroad and they are consolidating locally to access capital at a lower cost.” M&A Fees Credit Suisse Group AG of Zurich, the largest Swiss bank, won the most M&A business in the region since the start of the year with seven deals worth $46 billion, followed by Spain’s Banco Santander SA and JPMorgan. In 2009, Credit Suisse was second after Santander. Investment banks earned $1.1 billion in M&A fees in the region last year, up from $992 million in 2008, according to estimates from New York-based research firm Freeman & Co. Globally, total M&A fees in 2009 were $22.2 billion. Marcello Hallake , a New York-based partner at Thompson & Knight LLP of Dallas, expects companies that process natural resources, such as ethanol and iron ore, as well as consumer- related industries to contribute to merger activity in Brazil. His law firm specializes in advising the energy industry and is about to open an office in Rio de Janeiro President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ’s plan to make Rio de Janeiro-based Petroleo Brasileiro SA the sole operator of the pre-salt oil fields may delay some transactions in the sector, he said. Still, it won’t constrain long-term interest in Brazil’s oil industry, Hallake said. Oil Assets “Most oil companies are still interested in having a presence in Brazil despite the government’s increasing control over the nation’s huge oil reserves,” he said. China’s reliance on Brazilian commodities is also driving investments, said Stewart of Morgan Stanley, which has doubled its staff in Brazil since 2006 to 162 bankers. After Petrobras made the biggest discovery of crude in the Americas since 1976, China Development Bank lent $10 billion to the company in exchange for 100,000 barrels a day for the next 10 years. “If you believe in China, almost by definition you believe in Brazil,” said Stewart. Source: Bloomberg data, values based on announced total. To contact the reporter on this story: Serena Saitto in New York at ssaitto@bloomberg.net .

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Latin America M&A Jumps in Best Start Since 2000 as Brazil, Mexico Recovey

March 5, 2010

By Serena Saitto March 5 (Bloomberg) — Takeovers in Latin America are off to the best start in at least a decade, bucking a global slump, as economic recoveries in Brazil and Mexico spur consolidation in the telecommunications, food and commodities industries. America Movil SAB’s $25.7 billion purchase of Carso Global Telecom SAB in Mexico was the largest in the region this year and the second biggest globally. Latin America tallied 192 announced deals worth $72 billion since Jan. 1, the most in Bloomberg data going back 10 years and the only region to see an increase in transactions this year from the end of 2009. More than a third of 2010’s transactions were in Brazil, where the economy is rebounding from a recession, the currency is up 32 percent against the dollar in the past 12 months and interest rates are at record lows. The region may have its best year for acquisitions since 2007, said Udi Margulies , head of Latin American M&A for Barclays Capital in New York. That year takeovers in the region totaled $123.5 billion. “International companies are increasingly interested in investing in resource-rich Latin America,” said Nicolas Aguzin , the region’s chief executive officer for New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. “At the same time, Latin American companies are expanding abroad to become global leaders in their sector.” Deal Volume Falls Mexican and Brazilian companies were the top acquirers in the region with $55 billion worth of deals. Buyers in Latin America paid 7.44 times earnings before interest, taxes, amortization and depreciation, the lowest ratio for any area except Asia, data compiled by Bloomberg show. In the U.S., buyers paid on average 10.87 times Ebitda. Buyers from Europe also acquired companies in Latin America this year, including Heineken NV of Amsterdam and Royal Dutch Shell PLC. Global M&A volume fell 27 percent to $1.81 trillion last year, the lowest level since 2003, as the financial crisis froze credit. Latin American deals’ volume declined 9.5 percent to $115 billion. The region is having its best overall quarter since the last three months of 2006, when there were $98.6 billion worth of deals, Bloomberg data show. Takeovers are increasing as economists surveyed by the central bank forecast Brazil’s economy, Latin America’s largest, will grow 5.5 percent this year after shrinking each of the first three quarters last year from the same period in 2008. Mexican Growth Mexico’s government raised its estimate last month for 2010 economic growth to 3.9 percent from 3 percent, citing signs of a recovery in domestic and international demand. Gross domestic product shrank 6.5 percent last year, the country’s worst annual slump since 1932. “The increased competition for local assets and the region’s declining risk perception is driving acquisition prices up,” said Martin Sanchez, the head of Latin America mergers and acquisitions at Bank of America Corp. in New York. Investor optimism over Brazil’s recovery has been tempered by concern that China, the country’s biggest trading partner, may further curb bank lending to slow growth. Brazil’s presidential elections in October and the end of economic stimulus programs worldwide may “reduce visibility for the second half of this year,” said Charles Stewart , Morgan Stanley’s head of Latin American investment banking in Sao Paulo, who relocated from New York in 2008. Resource Play America Movil’s purchase of Carso Global Telecom in January was the second biggest globally after Prudential Plc’s $35.5 billion acquisition of American International Group Inc.’s Asian life insurance unit AIA Group Ltd. Heineken bought Fomento Economico Mexicano SAB, Mexico’s second-largest brewer, the same month for about $7.7 billion to tap faster growth in Latin America. Rio de Janeiro-based Vale SA, the world’s largest iron-ore producer, bought the Brazilian fertilizer assets of White Plains, New York-based Bunge Ltd. for $3.8 billion in cash. Royal Dutch Shell formed a $12 billion ethanol joint venture with Barra Bonita, Brazil-based Cosan SA Industria & Comercio to share control of the world’s largest sugar cane processor. “International investors are looking for opportunities in Brazil,” said Daniel Weinstein, co-head of investment banking for Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Sao Paulo. “At the same time, local companies are looking for synergies abroad and they are consolidating locally to access capital at a lower cost.” M&A Fees Credit Suisse Group AG of Zurich, the largest Swiss bank, won the most M&A business in the region since the start of the year with seven deals worth $46 billion, followed by Spain’s Banco Santander SA and JPMorgan. In 2009, Credit Suisse was second after Santander. Investment banks earned $1.1 billion in M&A fees in the region last year, up from $992 million in 2008, according to estimates from New York-based research firm Freeman & Co. Globally, total M&A fees in 2009 were $22.2 billion. Marcello Hallake , a New York-based partner at Thompson & Knight LLP of Dallas, expects companies that process natural resources, such as ethanol and iron ore, as well as consumer- related industries to contribute to merger activity in Brazil. His law firm specializes in advising the energy industry and is about to open an office in Rio de Janeiro President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ’s plan to make Rio de Janeiro-based Petroleo Brasileiro SA the sole operator of the pre-salt oil fields may delay some transactions in the sector, he said. Still, it won’t constrain long-term interest in Brazil’s oil industry, Hallake said. Oil Assets “Most oil companies are still interested in having a presence in Brazil despite the government’s increasing control over the nation’s huge oil reserves,” he said. China’s reliance on Brazilian commodities is also driving investments, said Stewart of Morgan Stanley, which has doubled its staff in Brazil since 2006 to 162 bankers. After Petrobras made the biggest discovery of crude in the Americas since 1976, China Development Bank lent $10 billion to the company in exchange for 100,000 barrels a day for the next 10 years. “If you believe in China, almost by definition you believe in Brazil,” said Stewart. Source: Bloomberg data, values based on announced total. To contact the reporter on this story: Serena Saitto in New York at ssaitto@bloomberg.net .

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Prudential Plc Will Buy AIG Unit to Gain 20 Million Customers Across Asia

March 1, 2010

By Kevin Crowley and Zachary R. Mider March 1 (Bloomberg) — Prudential Plc , Britain’s biggest insurer, agreed to buy American International Group Inc. ’s Asian life operations for $35.5 billion in cash and stock to gain more than 20 million customers in the region. Prudential will pay $25 billion in cash and $10.5 billion in stock and other securities for AIA Group Ltd., the London- based insurer said in a statement today. The insurer said it plans to raise $20 billion in a rights offering and sell about $5 billion of bonds to finance the cash part of its offer. Prudential Chief Executive Officer Tidjane Thiam is trying to boost the insurer’s sales in Asia as growth in the U.K declines. By acquiring AIA, Thiam gets a business with more than 90 years in Asia and more than $60 billion of assets in 13 markets in the region. The purchase price is about 50 percent more than Prudential’s market value. “If you look at the price, it shows the company is very bullish on the Asia market,” said Luo Yi , a Shenzhen-based analyst at China Merchants Securities Co. “The Chinese market has vast potential.” Prudential shares fell 11 percent to 537.5 pence as of 10:49 a.m. in London trading. The insurer said it will seek to list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange following the transaction. The sale would be AIG’s largest since it received a U.S. government bailout in 2008. AIG had planned an initial public offering for the Hong Kong-based unit to help repay its $182.3 billion rescue. Faster Than IPO “We decided that a sale to Prudential enables AIG to realize value on a faster track to repay U.S. taxpayer,” AIG CEO Robert Benmosche said in a statement today. Prudential’s offer may tempt rivals to bid for AIA, especially if AIG were prepared to lower its asking price, said Eamonn Flanagan , a Liverpool-based analyst at Shore Capital Group Plc who has a “buy” rating on Prudential stock. The insurer is paying about 1.69 times the embedded value of AIA in 2009. Embedded value estimates a company’s net worth excluding new business. The acquisition of AIA, founded in Shanghai in 1919, gives Prudential a business with 20,000 employees and 250,000 agents in markets spanning China to Australia. AIA sells life, accident and health insurance policies, and private retirement planning and wealth management services, its Web site shows. McKinsey & Co. has estimated Asia will deliver around 40 percent of global life insurance premium growth over the next five years. ‘The Right Move’ “Strategically it’s probably the right move” for Prudential, said Justin Urquhart Stewart , who oversees about $3.3 billion as director of 7 Investment Management in London, including Prudential shares. “It puts them into a different league.” Thiam said in a Feb. 17 interview that he wants to raise the proportion of sales from Asia to 80 percent by 2015 from 50 percent now. Prudential and AIA combined would have had about 60 percent of new business profit from Asia in 2009, he said today. “This transaction is hugely exciting and a one-off opportunity,” Thiam said in a statement. “It puts us in a strong leadership position in all the critical growth markets in the region.” Prudential has a market value of 15.3 billion pounds. The stock has more than doubled in the past year. Credit Suisse Group AG, JPMorgan Cazenove and HSBC Holdings Plc agreed to underwrite in full the $20 billion rights offer. That would be about equal to Lloyds Banking Group Plc’s 13.5 billion pounds ($20.4 billion) sale in December, still the U.K.’s biggest. ‘Risk Involved’ “If you’ve got backing from a few banks and a few major shareholders, there will be a way to make this deal happen,” said Marcus Barnard , a London-based analyst at Oriel Securities Ltd. with a “sell” rating on the stock. “The question is the cost and the risk involved.” The insurer may be forced to sell assets in India and China to comply with local foreign-ownership regulations, he said. AIG said last May that it would pursue an IPO of AIA after an auction of the business failed to turn up bids that matched what AIG executives thought the company was worth. That included a bid from Prudential that valued AIA at about $15 billion, one of the people said. The sum raised in the sale would exceed the total of more than 20 other asset sales announced by AIG, which has struck deals to raise more than $12 billion by selling units, including a U.S. auto insurer and equipment guarantor. Biggest U.S. Loss AIG had a fourth-quarter net loss of $8.87 billion, narrowing from $61.7 billion a year earlier when the insurer recorded the biggest loss in U.S. corporate history, the company said Feb. 26. The insurer gave stakes in American Life Insurance Co., known as Alico, and AIA, its biggest non-U.S. life insurance units, to the Fed in December. MetLife Inc. has said it is in talks to buy Alico, which operates in more than 50 countries outside the U.S. Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. advised AIG. Prudential Plc has no relation to Newark, New Jersey-based Prudential Financial Inc. and operates in the U.S. through its Jackson National Life Insurance Co. unit.

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AIG `Death Spiral’ Ends With Bailout Support Bringing Stability to Revenue

February 22, 2010

By Hugh Son Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) — American International Group Inc. , the troubled financial firm that threatened to bring down the U.S. economy, is showing stable revenue for its insurance units and improving its ability to repay taxpayers 17 months after a bailout that swelled to $182.3 billion. AIG property-casualty businesses, contributing more than a third of the company’s revenue , posted sales increases in three straight quarters last year after plunging 23 percent following the company’s near-death experience in September 2008. Life insurance and retirement-products sales, AIG’s other main operations, rose for the first time since the bailout in the three months ended September 2009. AIG gained 6.5 percent in New York trading today. “There are clear signs that AIG has pulled out of what could have been a death spiral,” said David Havens , managing director in credit trading at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. AIG’s insurance results have been improving “after dropping off a cliff following the bailout,” he said. Chief Executive Officer Robert Benmosche , 65, must increase insurance profits to repay loans included in AIG’s government rescue. The CEO has said he would rebuild businesses damaged after AIG’s derivatives unit, called an unregulated hedge fund by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke , sapped the parent company of cash in the weeks leading to the bailout. Fourth-Quarter Results The insurer, which may report fourth-quarter 2009 results by next week, could show underwriting improving “more in line with the industry as opposed to worse than the industry average,” said Jennifer Marshall, an analyst at A.M. Best Co. in Oldwick, New Jersey, which rates insurers including AIG. After scaling back operations at its plane-leasing unit, consumer lender and derivatives business and divesting its two largest non-U.S. life insurance divisions, AIG may remain the No. 1 U.S. commercial insurer. It is among top sellers of workers’ compensation, professional liability and property coverage, competing with Travelers Cos. and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. AIG posted $7.1 billion in commercial property-casualty sales in the fourth quarter of 2008, the first full period after the bailout. That figure rose to $7.7 billion in the first quarter of 2009, $7.9 billion in the second and $8.1 billion in the third. Life premiums and investment-product fees were $15.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008. That figure declined to $14.5 billion in the first quarter of 2009 after U.K. clients abandoned the firm, then fell to $13 billion in the second quarter before rising to $13.7 billion in the third. “Things are stabilizing,” said Pennsylvania Insurance Commissioner Joel Ario , AIG’s lead U.S. regulator for commercial insurance, citing the revenue figures as evidence. 2008 Stock Plunge After the bailout, a 97 percent stock plunge in 2008 and criticism from lawmakers over retention bonuses paid to derivatives employees, there was “concern that most of AIG’s largest customers would flee entirely,” said Robert Hartwig , president of Insurance Information Institute Inc., a trade organization in New York. “That didn’t happen. Most of the larger insureds spread their business around, so AIG doesn’t have as much of their account as they used to.” AIG is retaining more commercial customers, according to a Barclays Plc survey. About 75 percent of insurance buyers using AIG said they plan to stay with the insurer compared with 41 percent six months earlier, Jay Gelb , a Barclays analyst in New York, said in a Dec. 14 research note. ‘Ship Afloat’ “They’ve actually done a very good job of keeping the ship afloat,” James Tisch , CEO of Loews Corp., which owns about 90 percent of rival property-casualty insurer CNA Financial Corp., said in an interview. “They’ve done relatively well under a lot of stress and duress.” Insurance buyers may find comfort in the government’s 80 percent stake in the company and a $60 billion Federal Reserve credit line, said Shivan Subramaniam , CEO of FM Global, a Johnston, Rhode Island-based property-casualty insurer. “People view the federal government as being a backstop,” said Subramaniam. AIG “continued to be competitive in the marketplace as they’ve always been,” he said. Under Benmosche, AIG will focus on selling coverage to corporate customers worldwide, the company’s core business for most of its four decades under former CEO Maurice “Hank” Greenberg . Greenberg, who ran AIG until 2005, added life insurance, asset management , derivatives and a plane-leasing business to diversify revenue. Selling Assets Since the bailout, AIG has retreated from asset management for institutional clients and the U.S. auto insurance industry by striking deals to sell businesses for a total of about $12 billion. The company has said it expects to close its derivatives unit by year-end, while keeping $300 billion to $400 billion in trades AIG expects to be profitable. AIG’s consumer lender, American General Finance Corp. , has shut offices, cut jobs and sold receivables. Its Los Angeles- based aircraft-leasing unit, International Lease Finance Corp. , may sell assets, Benmosche said in a Feb. 4 statement. American General in Evansville, Indiana, and ILFC have been downgraded by rating firms and lost access to their usual funding sources. The insurer said it will support both units through Nov. 15. The company gave stakes in its two biggest overseas life insurance divisions, American Life Insurance Co. and American International Assurance Co., to the Fed to pay down its credit line by $25 billion. MetLife Inc. has said it is in talks to buy Alico, which operates in more than 50 countries. Profit Streak Paying down the insurer’s debts is expected to trigger about $5.2 billion in fourth-quarter accounting charges, AIG said. The insurer may post a $3.94-a-share fourth-quarter operating loss, according to the average estimate of three analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That would snap a streak of two profitable quarters last year after more than $100 billion in net losses fueled by the derivatives-trading unit. AIG advanced $1.73 to $28.26 at 10:27 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the second-largest gain on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. AIG has climbed about 4 percent since Aug. 7, the last trading day before Benmosche took over. The New York-based company, once the world’s largest insurer by assets, has shrunk by about a fifth. Total assets were $844 billion at the end of September 2009, down 21 percent from their peak two years earlier. Insurance revenue for the first nine months of 2009, excluding investment results, fell 17 percent to $52.6 billion from the same period a year earlier. Surviving as a smaller, healthier insurer doesn’t mean AIG will be able to repay all of its U.S. debts, which total more than $65 billion on Fed and Treasury Department facilities. ‘Utter Collapse’ The Government Accountability Office said in December that taxpayers will probably lose $30.4 billion on the AIG bailout. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner , who helped orchestrate the first of four rescues as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, testified in December that the U.S. is unlikely to recoup all of its AIG support. The firm had to be saved to prevent an “utter collapse” of the U.S. economy, Geithner has said. AIG is competing for a bigger share of a shrinking pie amid the economic slump. U.S. property and casualty sales slipped 5 percent in the third quarter, the biggest drop since at least 1986, on lower insurance rates and reduced demand. Annualized premiums for U.S. life insurers dropped 19 percent in the first nine months of 2009 from the same period a year earlier, according to trade group Limra International. The insurer’s U.S. and overseas property-casualty division was rebranded Chartis Inc. last year to distance the subsidiary from AIG. It sells coverage for property, workers’ compensation, corporate boards and ships and airplanes. ‘Solvency Risk’ AIG’s recovery and the prospects of repaying taxpayers could be imperiled if it is selling policies at a price inadequate to cover future claims, as competitors Chubb Corp. and Liberty Mutual Group Inc. have claimed. Ario, the Pennsylvania insurance regulator, said he expects to complete a “broad-scale examination” into AIG during the first half of this year, including whether it is holding onto customers by slashing pricing. “We’re very concerned about under-pricing because it can become a solvency risk,” Ario said of the industry in general. “It’s also true that companies are constantly complaining about their competitors pricing too low in a soft market.” He declined to comment further on the probe. “This kind of speculation is obviously competitively driven,” said Mark Herr , an AIG spokesman. “We have not changed how we underwrite or price our business.” Hedge-Fund Rebound The rebound in credit and equity markets has helped AIG. The insurer had a net unrealized gain of about $5.5 billion on corporate debt holdings as of Sept. 30 compared with an unrealized loss of about $8.9 billion at the end of 2008. The figures, monitored by investors and rating firms, reflect market fluctuations that aren’t counted toward earnings. AIG’s corporate bond holdings were valued at more than $180 billion at the end of the third quarter. Corporate bonds returned 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter after earning a 9.6 percent yield in the three months ended Sept. 30 and 13 percent in the second quarter, according to data compiled by Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch. The insurer also benefited from a rebound in municipal debt and private-equity and hedge-fund holdings. Buyout and hedge funds earned $286 million in the third quarter, after contributing about $1.7 billion in losses in the last three months of 2008. Compensation Restrictions Managers continue to leave AIG, which falls under the jurisdiction of Kenneth Feinberg , the Obama administration’s special master for executive compensation who instituted a $500,000 salary cap for most workers. More than 60 executives have left AIG since the rescue, some bringing subordinates to the company’s rivals. Benmosche, who declined to be interviewed, has been able to fill some posts with veteran executives, including Peter Hancock , a former chief financial officer of a predecessor to JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Thomas Russo , a former Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. top lawyer. “As long as they’re majority-owned by the U.S., AIG is going to be impacted” by compensation restrictions, said Marshall, the A.M. Best analyst. If Benmosche can retire AIG’s debt to taxpayers, those restrictions would be lifted, she said. “We’re looking down the road to a point when the government assistance has gone away and Chartis isn’t going to have a parent of the magnitude it used to,” Marshall said. To contact the reporter on this story: Hugh Son in New York at hson1@bloomberg.net

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Obama Budget Has $1.9 Trillion Tax Rise for Richest, Businesses

February 1, 2010

By Ryan J. Donmoyer Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) — The Obama administration proposed to increase taxes on Americans earning more than $200,000 by close to $970 billion over the next decade and take in an additional $400 billion from businesses even as it retooled a proposed crackdown on international tax-avoidance techniques. The new budget released today would reinstate 10-year-old income tax rates of 36 percent and 39.6 percent for single Americans earning more than $200,000 and joint filers who make more than $250,000 as part of a broad $1.9 trillion tax increase proposal. It proposes to eliminate preferences for oil and gas companies, life-insurance products, executives of investment partnerships, and U.S.-based companies that operate overseas. “The administration proposes to restore balance to the tax code by providing tax cuts to working families, returning to the pre-2001 ordinary income tax rates for families making more than a quarter of a million dollars a year, closing loopholes, and eliminating subsidies to special interests,” the budget says. In all, Obama proposed $143.4 billion in new tax cuts for individuals who earn under $200,000. While the budget sets out $93.5 billion in gross tax reductions for businesses, overall they would face a net tax increase. Offshore Profits The budget retools a trio of tax proposals aimed at preventing U.S. companies from shifting profits offshore that were first introduced last year. Businesses including Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft Corp., Fairfield, Connecticut-based General Electric Co. , Camden, New Jersey-based Campbell Soup Co. and Peoria, Illinois-based Caterpillar Inc. complained the changes would impair their ability to compete with foreign rivals. The biggest change would delete a proposal to abolish “check-the-box” rules, which allow companies to legally disregard foreign subsidiaries in tax havens when they file corporate tax returns. It also scales back a proposal to restrict the ability of companies to defer U.S. taxes on their foreign profits. In place of the check-the-box rules, the administration proposed $15.5 billion in new taxes. These would make it harder for companies to reduce taxes by inflating expenses using transactions between subsidiaries, a technique known as “transfer pricing.” The proposals are part of a broader package of international tax changes the budget estimates will generate about $122.2 billion over a decade. Patents, Trademarks The new proposal takes aim at the transfer of licenses, patents, trademarks, and other intangible property to subsidiaries in tax havens. Two administration officials said they made this change after weighing input from businesses and concluding targeting transfer pricing and foreign tax credit abuses would be more effective than last year’s proposals. A fee imposed on 50 of the biggest financial firms such as New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America Corp . would raise another $90 billion. Eliminating tax breaks for fossil-fuel industries would produce another $40 billion. The budget’s tax proposals otherwise are little changed from last year. For businesses, the administration calls for a permanent extension of a credit for research and for a $33 billion credit for small businesses that hire workers. It seeks renewal of a temporary tax incentive worth $38 billion for companies to buy equipment by offering a 50 percent write-off rather than slower depreciation over time. Top Bracket For individuals, the budget allows lower tax rates established under President George W. Bush for Americans in the top two brackets to revert to 36 percent and 39.6 percent, from 33 percent and 35 percent currently. Capital-gains and dividend tax rates would increase to 20 percent for people earning more than $250,000. Obama asked Congress to extend all of Bush’s tax cuts that apply to Americans earning under $250,000. He also proposes almost doubling a tax credit that helps Americans pay for child care and increasing federal subsidies for Individual Retirement Accounts. The budget assumes the federal estate tax, which expired Jan. 1 and was replaced with a capital-gains tax, will be reinstated retroactively with a 45 percent rate applied when married couples’ estates exceed $7 million. Minimum Tax Obama’s budget assumes Congress will continue to index the alternative minimum tax for inflation. The minimum tax can impose higher rates on families earning between $75,000 and $500,000 when their deductions are too high relative to their income. It originally was intended to affect only millionaires and is now ensnaring people with lower incomes because it was never indexed for inflation. The plan also proposes to require general partners at private-equity firms and other investment partnerships such as venture-capital firms and hedge funds to pay ordinary income-tax rates on their compensatory share of profits called “carried interest,” which currently qualifies for the 15 percent capital-gains treatment. That proposal would raise $24 billion. The budget also urges repeal of a law requiring workers to pay taxes when they use employer-provided cell phones and similar equipment for personal reasons. In addition, the budget revives a proposal from last year that would limit the value of itemized deductions for gifts to charities, investment expenses, and mortgage interest, among other items. Oil, Gas, Coal It also resurrects taxes on businesses, including the elimination of $36.5 billion in tax preferences for the oil, gas and coal industries. More broadly, the budget again proposes to repeal an accounting method known as “last-in, first-out” that benefits oil companies, retailers, textile makers, consumer-products companies and others that keep a lot of inventory in inflationary environments. That repeal would generate $59 billion over the decade. Other proposals included in both the new budget and last year’s request include new levies on securities dealers, life- insurance products, and the elimination of certain techniques that allow the wealthy to use trusts to dodge estate taxes. To contact the reporter on this story: Ryan J. Donmoyer in Washington at rdonmoyer@bloomberg.net

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Prudential To Buy AIG Units For 48B

January 10, 2010

Prudential Financial Group is acquiring two of AIGs life insurance units for 48 billion

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Eric Schurenberg: What Has Financial Innovation Ever Done for You?

December 18, 2009

What does the financial industry have against the regulatory reform? Well, there’s money, naturally. The bill that passed the House last week would create a Consumer Financial Protection Agency , a big new watchdog bureaucracy that will inevitably raise compliance headaches and interfere with the industry’s unfettered ability to dream up ever more complicated financial products. The way the industry has chosen to phrase this latter concern is to say that reform will hurt consumers by stifling financial innovation . In this issue of Democracy, economists Simon Johnson and James Kwak skewer the idea that financial innovation is an unqualified blessing for you and me. Former Fed chairman Paul Volcker’s rant to bankers in London last week makes the same point. I hear about these wonderful innovations in the financial markets and they sure as hell need a lot of innovation. I can tell you of two – Credit Default Swaps and CDOs – which took us right to the brink of disaster: were they wonderful innovations that we want to create more of? …. I wish that somebody would give me some shred of neutral evidence about the relationship between financial innovation recently and the growth of the economy, just one shred of information. A few years ago I happened to be at a conference of business people, not financial people, and I was making a presentation. The conference was being addressed by a very vigorous young investment banker from London who was explaining to all these older executives how their companies would be dust if they did not realize the joys of financial innovation and financial engineering, and that they had better get with it. I was listening to this and I found myself sitting next to one of the inventors of financial engineering who I did not know, but I knew who he was and that he had won a Nobel Prize, and I nudged him and asked what all the financial engineering does for the economy and what it does for productivity. Much to my surprise he leaned over and whispered in my ear that it does nothing. I asked him what it did do and he said that it moves around the rents in the financial system and besides that it was a lot of intellectual fun. The most important financial innovation that I have seen in the past 20 years is the automatic teller machine… How many other innovations can you tell me of that have been as important to the individual? To give financial innovators, their due, I can think of a couple other innovations of the past three decades, besides the ATM, that could fairly be said to have made financial life better: Credit and debit cards : They’re a little like fire: Risky in the wrong hands, but overall a great advance for civilization. Mortgage-backed securities : They put more money for home loans into circulation and lowered rates for homeowners. It wasn’t until Wall Street further bundled them into CDOs and bankers abandoned all lending standards that they became the enablers of the housing crisis. The money market fund : Okay, maybe the money market fund has been over-engineered to seem safer than it really is . But by unlocking market interest rates to ordinary savers, money funds freed us from being monopolized by banks. The index mutual fund : The index fund brought low cost investing and the best academic thinking about markets to the ordinary person. Here on CBS MoneyWatch.com, Nathan Hale eloquently explains why index funds are something to be thankful for . The 401(k ): Until employers pushed it to replace traditional pensions as the foundation of the U.S. retirement system–a role it was never designed to play –the 401(k) was a clever and elegant way to democratize benefits that had been limited to top executives. The ETF : I like the ETF, when used as a low-cost alternative to index mutual funds , but like most financial innovations, Wall Street has done its best to turn it toxic. The latest variations are no more than invitations to gamble on narrow market sectors, and can trade at wide discounts and spreads, totally negating the benefits of low cost. The target-date retirement fund : Yes, they lost money in the crash, but what didn’t? Their basic idea is sound. Over the course of most people’s career, they’ll do far more good than harm. That’s about it, though. Eight useful innovations. Not much to show for 30 years of financial creativity. Most financial innovations for consumers tend to be ways to fatten profits for financial service providers by rendering simple products more complicated. (I’d join my colleague Allan Roth in putting many life insurance investments in that category.) Too often financial innovations arise not to help people, but to cater to their worst excesses of greed or fear: Technology funds introduced at the height of the tech stock bubble, or the emerging markets funds that inevitably come out of the woodwork at market peaks. In the current risk-averse climate, I’d say that equity-indexed annuities that prey on people’s worries about the stock market are another innovation we could live without. But maybe I’m being too harsh on our financial engineers. Are there others I’m not thinking of that actually have made your financial life better? Are there others you’d single out as especially dangerous? Continue reading on CBS MoneyWatch.com

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NAB to Buy Axa Asia’s Australia, N.Z. Units for $4.2 Billion, Trumping AMP

December 16, 2009

By Rebecca Evans and Angus Whitley Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) — National Australia Bank Ltd. said it has agreed terms to acquire Axa Asia Pacific Holdings Ltd. ’s Australian and New Zealand businesses for A$4.61 billion ($4.2 billion). The statement was made on a conference call today. Axa Asia Pacific shareholders will be offered cash, or a mix of cash and National Australia Bank shares. The agreed deal trumps AMP Ltd. , Australia’s second-largest asset manager, which on Dec. 14 raised its joint bid with Axa SA bid for Axa Asia Pacific, and gave the company a week to accept. Axa Asia Pacific is responsible for Axa Group’s life insurance and wealth management businesses in the region. It has operations in Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, India, Malaysia, Australia and New Zealand, according to the company’s Web site . It employs more than 2,300 people in Australia and New Zealand, and about 1,900 in Asia. National Australia Bank Ltd., the nation’s third-largest lender, in June agreed to buy Aviva Plc’s local wealth advisory and life insurance units for A$825 million. To contact the reporter on this story: Angus Whitley in Sydney at awhitley1@bloomberg.net

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