market

menafn.com…

(MENAFN – Saudi Press Agency) World stock markets fell Friday as strong U.S. company earnings failed to calm worries the world’s No. 1 economy is struggling to maintain its recovery, AP …

Read more from the original source:
World stocks weighed down by glum US economic data

Find our Weekly Commercial Real Estate, Private Equity and Fund Newsletters at www.WeeklyBrief.net

A Major Setback For Kamala Harris

by Aaron Sankin on April 18, 2012

Huffington Post…

For the nearly two years that Kamala Harris has been California’s Attorney General, she has made the fight against fraudulent foreclosures her signature issue. Now, largely due to pressure from business groups, legislators look like they may soon succeed in tanking her most ambitious plan yet to clean up the state’s mortgage market. Earlier this year, Harris began pushing for California to pass the “Homeowner Bill of Rights,” a collection of six bills that would make significant changes in the way the state regulates mortgages. Harris was scheduled to testify before the California Assembly’s Senate Banking and Finance Committee on Monday; however, only moments before she was supposed to appear, both of the bills she was discussing were pulled by the committee chairman, Democrat Mike Eng of Monterey Park. The sudden change reportedly prompted a chorus of catcalls from the assembled crowd. The pair of laws Harris was scheduled to discuss aim to increasing protections for mortgage borrowers by prohibiting lenders from foreclosing on a property while simultaneously negotiating a loan modification on that property and also simplifies loan documentation by establishing a single, standardized contract for foreclosures and loan restructuring. Other provisions in the bundle require banks to provide homeowners with a single point of contact during the loan modification process and levy a $25 fee on banks every time they register a default. Proceeds from the default fee would then go into a pool of money funding mortgage fraud investigations. As part of the $25 billion settlement between the nation’s five largest mortgage holders and the attorneys general of 49 states, in which Harris was a crucial player , the large institutions that hold nearly 30 percent of all mortgages in the state have already agreed to abide by some of these rules. However, that settlement expires in three years and Harris wants the rules to extend into perpetuity. The banking industry strongly opposes the measures. The Sacramento Bee reports : In letters to legislators, the state chamber said the measures amount to a “de facto moratorium on foreclosures” that would actually hurt the real estate market with a confusing new set of laws, squeeze credit for property purchases and trigger a wave of lawsuits. The chamber also contends the bills are in conflict with federal standards and are an “extraordinarily restrictive and draconian” permanent response to temporary industry abuses. Conversely, the bills have received strong support from civic leaders in San Francisco. “Too many San Franciscans have been devastated by the mortgage crisis and too many families have lost their homes due to deceiving banking practices right here in some of our most vulnerable communities,” said San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee in a statement to the San Francisco Sentinel . “Thousands of foreclosures have happened and are happening in neighborhoods in our cities. I applaud the leadership of Attorney General Kamala Harris for standing up for families and using the powers of her office to protect homeowners from mortgage fraud and abuse.” Last week, the city’s Board of Supervisors passed a non-binding resolution calling for a moratorium on all foreclosures in the city until additional protections, such as the ones in Harris’s bills, are enacted. An audit of 400 San Francisco foreclosures conducted by San Francisco Assessor-Record Phil Ting found that 84 percent were either fraudulent or missing crucial documentation. “This matters because families facing foreclosures are entitled to know exactly who holds their loan and to see for certain that the foreclosure is justified,” Ting wrote in a blog on the Huffington Post . “In one case, our audit showed a foreclosure initiated by a party that had no title to the property–and in a number of other cases, we found two competing claims to the title.” (Full disclosure: Aaron Sankin was briefly an unpaid intern on Harris’s 2003 campaign for San Francisco District Attorney.)

Read the original post:
A Major Setback For Kamala Harris

Find our Weekly Commercial Real Estate, Private Equity and Fund Newsletters at www.WeeklyBrief.net

SEC Stall Leaves Critical Rules More Than A Year Overdue

April 17, 2012

WASHINGTON — A full year after the official deadline came and went, key regulations necessary to enforce the Dodd-Frank financial reform law remain unwritten, leaving vast areas of the financial market still vulnerable to self-destruction and failing to discourage corrupt practices overseas. Among the overdue regulations from the Securities and Exchange Commission alone are complicated rules, like those that would rein in the derivatives market, and simple rules, like the pending requirement that companies publicly reveal the median compensation of all their employees, the compensation of their CEO, and the ratio of the two. There are also long-delayed but important anti-corruption regulations , including one that would instruct publicly traded companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges to start disclosing exactly how much they pay foreign governments to acquire drilling and mining rights. The idea is to make it more difficult for foreign leaders to abscond with secret stashes of billions of dollars they received from energy and mining companies. The Dodd-Frank legislation specifies that the anti-corruption provision and many others should be implemented within nine months of the bill becoming law — namely, by April 15, 2011. Now another whole year has passed. There is reason to hurry, said Bartlett Naylor, financial policy advocate for the consumer group Public Citizen. “Our financial industry has developed an ability to blow itself up very quickly, apparently unbeknownst to its regulators,” he said. “It’s unclear when the next bomb will explode. But I think defusing it sooner is certainly better.” Naylor is eagerly waiting for the SEC, which must write a significant number of Dodd-Frank’s required rules, to detail and enforce the law’s prohibition on employee bonuses that encourage inappropriate risk taking by financial institutions. “Given that Wall Street was crashed not by philanthropists or people randomly making decisions, but by people who were bonus-based, I think that’s the single most overdue rule,” he said. Some observers worry that the Obama administration is now making a higher priority of eliminating disclosure rules and regulatory burdens for small companies seeking capital. Those are requirements of the recently passed JOBS Act , which won bipartisan support in Washington despite considerable concerns that it invites a new wave of conflicts of interest and financial fraud. The big question, Naylor said, is whether the SEC is taking the 270-day rulemaking timeline for that law more seriously than the 365-days-overdue deadline for Dodd-Frank. “We, of course, don’t think it should,” he said. An SEC spokesperson was not available for comment. The agency generally declines to publicly discuss internal deliberations. Oxfam America and other international humanitarian groups have strongly objected to the delay on the rules regarding disclosure of payments for natural resources overseas. Three activists from a coalition that Oxfam helps lead dressed in suits and monkey masks and stood inside an oil barrel in front of the SEC on Monday to convey the message that “transparency in the oil, gas and mining industry is not monkey business.” Ian Gary, who handles extractive industries issues for Oxfam, said the group has grown increasingly concerned about the rule delay. “The SEC has blown past every timetable and promise they’ve made,” he said. The SEC’s latest estimate is that the rule will be finalized by June at the latest. “But based upon the serial violations of promises in the past, we’re deeply concerned that the agency is not taking the congressional deadline seriously and has really drawn back from rulemaking in general,” Gary said. Indeed, the SEC hasn’t adopted any substantive Dodd-Frank rules this year, a slowdown that is widely seen as the result of a federal appeals court ruling last July that struck down one of its rules on the ground that the agency failed to adequately assess the potential economic effects . Since then, as Reuters reported , the SEC has been “taking extra steps to bulletproof its rulemaking.” That worries Gary. “I think the agency is in some ways being cowed by the oil industry — and other industry — lobbyists to water down this rule and water down other rules so they might withstand a legal challenge,” he said. The powerful oil and gas lobbying group, the American Petroleum Institute, has long argued that the overseas payment disclosure rule would put it at a competitive disadvantage when competing for international contracts. Now it’s demanding that the draft rule be rewritten, and its main argument is that, if not, it will sue and win. Naylor calls the litigation threat “the sharp edge” of an industry lobby that was already relentlessly pressuring the SEC’s members and staff. And he fears the agency is listening. “If you are spending 90 out of 91 conversations talking to a banker rather than a consumer advocate,” Naylor said, “you will begin to speak their language and think their thoughts.”

Read the full article →

What Are The Best Apps For Your Business? (INFOGRAPHIC)

April 17, 2012

Ever wonder if you’re using the right applications to run your business? With so many options, and a whole lot of overlap, choosing platforms for email, data storage, financials and marketing can get complicated. While some applications like Gmail, Salesforce and PayPal are popular among business owners, it’s important to choose business applications that best suit your company’s needs, whether it be on-the-go access or cost efficiency. Check out the top ranking applications and see how businesses are best using them in this infographic from Mavenlink . Small Business Apps

Read the full article →

Twink-ruptcy: Hostess May Go Under In Labor Dispute

April 17, 2012

Marking the peak of a heated labor dispute, Hostess Brands and the Teamsters union are squaring off in bankruptcy court Tuesday in a case that could decide the iconic company’s future. The union, which represents 7,500 Hostess workers, hasn’t reached a contract agreement with the bankrupt maker of Twinkies, Ding Dongs and Wonder bread, saying the company is demanding too much in the way of concessions. Hostess argues that its pension and labor costs are untenable. A ruling against Hostess in court would force the company back to the bargaining table with the Teamsters. A ruling in favor of Hostess would allow the company to escape its current labor contracts. “And in that case, we will be on strike,” Ken Hall, Teamsters vice president, told The Huffington Post. According to Hall, the union’s Hostess workers voted overwhelmingly to authorize a strike. Though he wouldn’t put a date on it, he said the strike could happen “very soon.” The union recently acknowledged to the court that negotiations were ” in crisis .” Hostess CEO Gregory F. Rayburn said in an emailed statement that a strike by either the Teamsters or the workforce’s other major union, the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union, would put the company under. “Hostess will be forced to liquidate if there were a strike by either of its largest unions because its lenders would pull their financing,” Rayburn said. “That’s why the company has tried to reach a consensual agreement with its unions that would lower the costs of its union pension and health plans while still providing employees with good, industry standard benefits.” The two sides failed to reach an agreement in advance of the hearing in bankruptcy court in New York, each arguing that the other’s proposals were unreasonable. After an offer made by Hostess over the weekend calling for steep pension cuts, the Teamsters made a counter offer with more modest concessions that amount to $150 million annually, including the temporary suspension of pension payments, according to the union. Hostess maintains that the current employee pension plans are too costly and financially unstable. In a letter to employees Monday, Hostess warned that a strike would cripple the company: “All Hostess Brands operations would shut down and liquidation would begin. The 18,500 jobs, plus the health insurance that comes with them, would be lost for good.” The union’s hard stance suggests a degree of frustration among rank-and-file workers. Dow Jones reported earlier this month that Hostess’ creditors were concerned that the company may have manipulated executive pay leading up to its Chapter 11 filing, possibly allowing Hostess managers to sidestep compensation requirements under bankruptcy law. The company has denied the creditors’ implications. Joseph Ortuso, a Hostess route salesman and Teamster based in New Jersey, said the news about executive pay was galling, given the talk of the need for shared sacrifice as the company struggles. “They’re saying they can’t afford to pay pensions when they’ve given [huge] increases to executives,” Ortuso, 53, said. According to Hostess, the raises put in place for executives last year were scrapped, and the company’s top four executives have agreed to work for $1 until either the end of this year or when the company emerges from Chapter 11, whichever comes first. The company also says unionized employees have had more generous raises than non-unionized employees during the past three years. “It is factually incorrect to claim that union employees are the only ones being asked to sacrifice,” Rayburn said. Hall, the Teamsters official, has been critical of Hostess management since the company came out of its last restructuring three years ago. He said the company needs to steer its branding and image toward healthier products to appeal to modern consumers. “All the other companies have changed with consumers’ desires,” Hall said. “This company hasn’t. We want to make sure whatever our members are giving up will help make this company profitable.” The company maintains that it, too, would like to invest in branding, marketing and research and development, but can’t under its current cost structure. The bankruptcy judge is expected to make a decision on Hostess’ union contracts in several weeks.

Read the full article →

How To Turn Your Instagram Photos Into A Pillow

April 17, 2012

Instagram’s sale to Facebook earlier this month for $1 billion was the crescendo of the startup’s rapid rise and dominance in the mobile photo-sharing market. But within the Instagram universe lies another market — small businesses allowing you to customize products using photos from your Instagram account. From flipbooks to T-shirts to posters, a myriad of websites have sprung up around the ability to turn your Instagram photos into physical or decorative mementos. Apart from creation, startups have also come up with new methods for browsing Instagram and sites where you can look at statistics and insights from your account. Consider it the Instagram Economy. One such Instagram-inspired creation is Stitchtagram , a Washington, D.C.-based company that allows you to craft 15-inch throw pillows with photos from your Instagram account for $95 plus shipping. Stitchtagram is the brainchild of brother-and-sister duo Doug and Rachel Pfeffer. Doug works for Internet ad agency The Barbarian Group while Rachel leads Rachel Pfeffer Designs , a jewelry store. “My sister and I had been talking about it for a while and we wanted to get it out there into the world in time for our Christmas and holiday orders, so it has only been a few months,” Doug Pfeffer said of Stitchtagram’s November launch. “I’m not going to retire off Stitchtagram just yet, but it’s been a great project so far.” For Adrian Salamunovic, co-founder of CanvasPop.com , a site that blows up, prints and frames your Instagram photos, Instagram’s user base of some 40 million people has been a fertile customer pool. “We could tell early on that Instagram was going to explode,” he said. “We knew we had to be the first company to allow this huge marketplace to print large images and we achieved that. Fast forward six months later and we’ve sold tens of thousands of prints to our fellow Instagram fanatics, with almost no advertising.” Instagram’s clean, intuitive interface and easy access for third parties have allowed this secondary market to grow alongside the popular photo-sharing app. Apart from technical matters, Instagram photos are inherently practical for businesses printing and using the pictures. “It’s a simple thing to go in there and access your photos,” Pfeffer said. “Instagram has this great API, so it makes it really easy for third parties to go in and pull the photos out of there. A side effect of this simplicity is that all Instagram photos are the same dimensions so it actually makes it way easier to print.” “What makes Instagram so perfect for doing business is that they have a highly influential, early adopter, connected, creative audience that loves to share stuff — in other words, the clients that everyone wants,” Salamunovic added. “These people look for cool authentic products they can get behind. More importantly Instagram never had a focus on monetizing their audience, so we did it for them via their API that they provide for free to developers.” For CanvasPop, their printing extends beyond purely Instagram photos — offering prints and canvases for SLR photos and even Facebook pictures. Pfeffer echoed that he was hoping to open up his pillow creation tool to Facebook photos to expand his audience and offer more variety in pillow creation for customers. With Facebook’s high-profile — and high-priced — purchase of Instagram, there has been a ton of press and a flood of new users using the application. With the release of the app for Android and the big news of the purchase, Instagram added more than 10 million users in only 10 days , bolstering its user base to 40 million strong. “One reason a lot of people, including me, like Instagram is because it seems like it’s more of a closed network of people you’re interacting with,” Pfeffer said. “As far as business goes, more people is never a bad thing.” Here’s a look at some of the more creative third-party Instagram companies:

Read the full article →

U.S. Bank Faces Federal Investigation

April 17, 2012

U.S. Bank on Tuesday joined the ranks of large financial firms facing discrimination charges for the way it maintains foreclosed homes in mostly black and Latino neighborhoods. The National Fair Housing Alliance, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit, filed a formal discrimination complaint against the bank with the Department of Housing and Urban Development Tuesday. In the complaint, the organization accuses the bank of maintaining and marketing bank-owned foreclosed properties in predominantly white communities far more aggressively and consistently than it does homes in mostly black and Latino neighborhoods. The complaint filed against U.S. Bank and its parent company, U.S. Bancorp, marks the second charge in as many weeks brought by the National Fair Housing Alliance against a major bank. The alliance conducts housing discrimination investigations and receives some funding from HUD. Last week, the alliance accused California-based Wells Fargo , the nation’s largest mortgage lender, of similar civil rights violations. Minnesota-based U.S. Bank is the fifth largest commercial bank in the United States. On Tuesday, it also faced separate allegations logged by another nonprofit group that it offers pay day loans at annual interest rates approaching 400 percent to vulnerable consumers. Alliance investigators examined 177 U.S. Bank properties in seven cities, said Shanna Smith, the alliance’s president and CEO. Public records indicated each of the homes was owned, not simply managed, by U.S. Bank, she said. In Dayton, Ohio, alliance investigators found that 65 percent of U.S. Bank foreclosures in communities of color had broken widows or doors, according to the alliance’s complaint. Only 15 percent of the bank’s repossessed homes in white neighborhoods were in the same condition. In the Oakland, Calif.-area, 64 percent of the bank’s foreclosed properties in black or Latino neighborhoods were littered with, “substantial” amounts of trash. But, only 17 percent of properties in predominantly white Bay Area neighborhoods had the same problem. U.S. Bank said that the complaint filed with HUD Tuesday does not include the addresses of problem properties, which the bank needs to determine if it owns the properties or if it is simply the trustee managing administrative tasks for investors who own the home loans. Trustees oversee securities — in this case, mortgage securities made up of hundreds or even thousands of home loans — on behalf of investors. The investors are often large pension funds and insurance companies. Trustees, in turn, typically hire companies known as servicers to collect mortgage payments from the home buyers whose loans are part of the security. Banks often function as servicers and are responsible for dealing with loans before and after a foreclosure. So, servicers also often hire asset managers or contractors to maintain foreclosed properties. Nicole Sprenger, a U.S. Bank spokesperson, emailed a statement to the Huffington Post Tuesday that emphasized the complexity of these arrangements. As you may know, U.S. Bank is one of the nation’s largest corporate trustees. Accordingly, in the vast majority of cases where U.S. Bank is involved in a foreclosure, we serve as a trustee for an investment pool where the former mortgage was held, and have no role in servicing or maintaining the property. That is the responsibility of the servicer (typically another bank), and not the trustee. When we do own a property, we have a strong and comprehensive process in place to regularly inspect and maintain properties to marketing standards where we have legal access, regardless of their location. The bank’s argument is illegitimate, said Anne Houghtaling, executive director of HOPE Fair Housing Center in Wheaton, Ill. a city about 25 miles west of Chicago. HOPE is one of the nonprofit organizations that helped the National Fair Housing Alliance evaluate the state of foreclosed homes in cities around the country. “U.S. Bank has a list of its own properties, (and) could go and look at them, and should be going to look at them regularly,” Houghtaling said. “They could do that now.” There is clear evidence that U.S. Bank-owned properties in Chicago are treated differently if located in a community of color, she said. HUD declined to comment on the complaint but confirmed that it had been filed and will lead to a federal investigation. Should HUD find evidence that the alliance’s complaint against U.S. Bank is accurate, the federal agency can attempt to negotiate a settlement with the bank. If the parties are unable to reach an agreement, the Justice Department could file suit against the bank. The complaint filed Tuesday follows a nine-month probe during which the National Fair Housing Alliance evaluated the state of 1,000 bank-owned foreclosed homes in nine metro areas from California to Washington, D.C. Investigators found “overwhelming” and “troubling” evidence that six of the nation’s major banks market and maintain foreclosed homes in predominantly white neighborhoods differently than they do in others, according to a report issued by the agency last week. The pattern was pronounced in communities regardless of income, Smith said.

Read the full article →

Houses Just Ain’t Worth What They Used To Be

April 17, 2012

It’s a tough time to be a home builder — especially now that so many houses aren’t worth what it costs to build them. That’s the surprising finding of a recent report from the National Association of Home Builders. About one out of every three builders is now grappling with a dismaying problem: once the homes are finished, an appraiser comes around and declares that they’re worth less than they cost to construct , according to the report cited by SmartMoney . That’s bad news in a market where housing sales are already far from robust. Persistently low prices and an overall climate of economic uncertainty are keeping many would-be homebuyers from taking the plunge. The lack of momentum in the housing market, in turn, is thought to be a major factor keeping the economy in low gear — not to mention crowding out low-income renters as more and more people are skittish about buying . Selling a newly built house presents a special set of challenges — not all of which have to do with home appraisers, a group the NAHB has been quick to criticize in the past. As SmartMoney notes, the market is already flooded with cheap foreclosed properties , which homebuyers are more likely to turn to. New-home sales fell in February to a number about 10,000 less than what analysts expected , according to CNN. There are already more than 10 million vacant homes in the country , according to some estimates, but the supply of new houses seems on track to keep going up. Builders requested the most permits in March for new construction projects in three and a half years , according to the Associated Press. That’s good news as far as unemployment is concerned — an NAHB economist told CNN last month that three jobs are created for every new house that gets built — but it remains to be seen what kind of effect it will have on a market where housing supply already far exceeds demand.

Read the full article →

Tech Giant Considered Creating Its Own Android Rival

April 17, 2012

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – Oracle Corp Chief Executive Larry Ellison said the software maker had considered building its own smartphone to compete with Apple Inc and Google Inc, but decided it was a “bad idea” after a weeks-long cost and market analysis. As part of that exhaustive internal analysis, he said, Oracle had pondered at one point buying Blackberry-maker Research in Motion Ltd and Palm — a smartphone maker scooped up by Hewlett Packard Co. On the second day of a legal battle between Oracle and Google over Java patents used in Android mobile software, Ellison added that Oracle felt it lacked in-house expertise on smartphones and hence considered acquisitions. But it ultimately decided to abandon the idea. (Reporting By Edwin Chan and Dan Levine; Editing by Gerald E. McCormick)

Read the full article →

Investors Run To Surprising Place

April 17, 2012

Investors around the world are getting more anxious, and they’re choosing to put their money in an unusual safe haven: the U.S. stock market. A new Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey of global mutual-fund managers, released on Tuesday, finds that investors scrambled for safety last month as worries about the European debt crisis once again flared. The percentage of money managers hoarding what they consider to be an unusually high amount of cash jumped to 20 percent from 10 percent in February, according to the BofA survey. And global money managers pulled some money out of the global stock market last month, according to the survey — not surprising at a time when there are worries that the global economy is slowing down. But on balance money managers around the world poured more cash into the U.S. stock market in March. The percentage of investors “overweight” U.S. stocks — meaning they had more money in U.S. stocks than usual — was higher than the percentage “underweight” the U.S. market by 27 percentage points, up from 14 percentage points inFebruary At the same time, global investors pulled some money out of the stock markets of Brazil, India and other “emerging” markets. And they continued to avoid the European, British and Japanese markets like a sneezing guy on the subway. This behavior isn’t too surprising if you think about it: Europe is in recession , with debt crises rolling around the continent. Japan is in a shaky recovery from a recession last year, and China’s growth appears to be slowing sharply. The U.S. economy, meanwhile, is still doing OK, though data on Tuesday suggested manufacturing and home construction slowed toward the end of the first quarter. But there was another funny wrinkle in the survey: While foreign investors might see the U.S. as a safe haven, U.S. investors are starting to sour on the prospects for U.S. economic growth and corporate profits, according to the survey. “A net 8 percent of U.S.-based investors say the country’s economy will get stronger in the coming year, down from a net 29 percent in March,” BofA said. “A net 8 percent predicts corporate earnings will fall – last month, U.S. investors were evenly split on whether earnings would improve or deteriorate.” So far, global investors’ faith in U.S. stocks has been both tested and rewarded: By putting more money into U.S. stocks in March, global money managers suffered through the stock market’s mini-swoon in mid-April. But they may also be enjoying the market’s sudden, neck-breaking rebound, which continued on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 170 points at midday in New York , thanks in part to better-than-expected corporate earnings. This sort of market volatility, this unpredictability, is the sort of thing a lot of money managers hate. But it’s not nearly as bad yet as it was last fall, when a 170-point swing up or down in the Dow was considered a relatively calm day. And money managers globally are still more cautious than terrified, noted Michael Hartnett, chief stock strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Last fall, for example, the percentage of investors hoarding cash jumped to 30 percent and stayed there for months. And during the crisis about half of all money managers were parked in cash.

Read the full article →

European futures fluctuate before the opening on Tuesday

April 17, 2012

European equities futures fluctuated before the opening on Tuesday as investors await the European bond auction. The European market rebounded yesterday to close in green areas after the significant …

Read the full article →

USD/JPY Classical Technical Report 04.17

April 17, 2012

USD/JPY:The market continues to correct from the recent 2012 highs established by 84.20 several days back and risks still exist for additional setbacks into the 79.00-80.00 area before considering …

Read the full article →

GBP/USD Classical Technical Report 04.17

April 17, 2012

GBP/USD: Failure to establish any fresh momentum on the recent break above 1.6000, followed by an aggressive bearish reversal now suggests that the market could finally be looking to carve a top …

Read the full article →

USD/CHF Classical Technical Report 04.17

April 17, 2012

USD/CHF: Our core constructive outlook remains well intact with the latest setbacks very well supported by psychological barriers at 0.9000. It now looks as though the market could be looking to …

Read the full article →

Session focus on debt auctions and inflation data

April 17, 2012

The market tension remains evident and fears over the stability of the euro area remains the market buzz. Investors are closely monitoring the debt market developments and surely the auctions from …

Read the full article →

Scandis Well Offered on Rallies Against Euro and USD as Expected

April 17, 2012

Eur/Sek Setbacks have once again been very well supported ahead of the 8.75 level and the market looks to once again be attempting to carve a bottom in favor of renewed strength back towards the …

Read the full article →

US Dollar Index Classical Technical Report 04.17

April 17, 2012

US DOLLAR INDEX: The market remains locked in a multi-day consolidation and should continue to chop between the 9,600-10,100 area. Overall, we do retain a bullish outlook given the broader …

Read the full article →

GBP/JPY Classical Technical Report 04.17

April 17, 2012

GBP/JPY: The market is finally in the process of correcting following the latest surge to fresh 2012 highs by 133.50. From here, we see risks for further weakness towards the 125.00 area, but …

Read the full article →

EUR/JPY Classical Technical Report 04.17

April 17, 2012

EUR/JPY:The market is finally in the process of correcting following the latest surge to fresh 2012 highs just over 111.00. From here, we see risks for further weakness towards the 103.00 area, …

Read the full article →

USD/CAD Classical Technical Report 04.17

April 17, 2012

USD/CAD: Our constructive outlook remains intact despite the latest interday pullback with the market largely locked in a medium-term consolidation ahead of what we believe will be an eventual …

Read the full article →

NZD/USD Classical Technical Report 04.17

April 17, 2012

NZD/USD: The market has been locked in a sideways chop over the past several sessions to temporarily delay our bearish outlook. However, any rallies towards 0.8300 are viewed as a formidable …

Read the full article →

AUD/USD Classical Technical Report 04.17

April 17, 2012

AUD/USD: Our bearish outlook in this market is being reaffirmed with the latest pullback and we continue to project deeper setbacks over the coming days and weeks back below parity. A fresh lower …

Read the full article →

NFL Plays Ball With Gambling Industry

April 16, 2012

Despite the NFL’s vocal opposition to betting on its games, the league’s move to allow teams to accept casino ads has generated a great, big … ho-hum. Scott Andresen, a sports attorney and Northwestern professor, said the new deal is “somewhat hypocritical” but didn’t bother him, he told The Huffington Post Monday. It could even boost teams’ payroll, he said. University of Michigan sports economist Rodney Fort said the advertising could help fill the hotel and convention space attached to the casinos. “There’s nothing hypocritical about it.” The NFL last week approved local casino advertising at stadiums and during game broadcasts for the next two seasons, the Associated Press reported. The ads are limited to the upper bowl of the league’s venues, local radio broadcasts and in-game programs. They must also include a “gamble responsibly” message. Casinos that host sports betting are prohibited from advertising. The decision could represent a jackpot for teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, who have 20 casinos within driving distance of their stadium, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported Monday. The New York Jets and Giants could also both gain as much as $5 million apiece , the New York Post estimated. NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy clarified Monday that it was the teams that could accept the advertising, not the league. And the clubs were restricted in how they can deploy the marketing. “There is no use of team logos, no special sections or clubs sponsored by casinos, no events, no promotions, etc. This is in contrast to what other sports have done for years,” he wrote in an email to HuffPost. McCarthy had said in an earlier statement distributed to the media: “We remain steadfast in our opposition to the proliferation of gambling on NFL games. There is a distinction between accepting advertising in this limited fashion and gambling on the outcome of our games.” That said, Andresen pointed out football’s uncomfortable yet profitable relationship with gambling. “Let’s be honest: a substantial part of the NFL’s popularity is based in gambling activity or gaming of some sort, whether it’s sports books out in Vegas or parlay sheets or even fantasy leagues.” Concluded Andresen: “The hypocrisy has always been there.”

Read the full article →

Coffee Prices Fall To Lowest Level In 18 Months

April 16, 2012

— Coffee prices fell to their lowest level in 18 months Monday on expectations that Brazilian growers will produce a robust harvest. Coffee fell 4.5 cents to end at $1.747 per pound Monday. That’s the lowest level since Oct. 7, 2010, when the price was $1.7345 per pound. Good weather during the growing season has triggered speculation that Brazil will produce large quantities of coffee when the harvest gets under way in June. That is expected to offset lower production in Colombia, which has had large amounts of rainfall. At the same time, demand appears to remain strong globally. That’s causing some confusion among traders and analysts about where the market is headed, said Jack Scoville, vice president of Price Futures Group. Despite the falling futures prices, coffee drinkers aren’t likely to see much change at the retail level because businesses still are paying more to produce and ship products, analysts have said. In other trading, prices for corn and wheat fell after weekend rains scattered across fields from the Dakotas to southern Texas. Although it’s early in the planting season, the rains should benefit crops in the field and moisten fields that are being readied for planting, said Northstar Commodity analyst Jason Ward said. Investors speculated that could improve yields at harvest time. In May contracts, wheat dropped 7.25 cents to $6.1625 per bushel, corn decreased 6 cents to $6.2325 per bushel and soybeans ended down 16.75 cents at $14.20 per bushel. Wet weather also may have played a factor in falling cotton prices, Scoville said. May cotton fell 4 cents, or 4.3 percent, to 88.08 cents per pound. Other commodities were mixed after lingering concerns about Europe’s debt problems overshadowed stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales. Spain’s borrowing costs climbed above 6 percent rate mark before falling back to 5.96 percent later Monday. In the U.S., retail sales rose 0.8 percent in March, twice as much as analysts had expected. Gold for June delivery fell $10.50 to finish at $1,649.70 an ounce and May silver dropped 1.7 cents to $31.373 an ounce, May copper rose 0.1 cent to $3.628 per pound, July platinum fell $12.10 to $1,575.80 an ounce and June palladium increased $3.50 to $650.70 an ounce. Benchmark oil rose 10 cents to finish at $102.93 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Heating oil fell 5.8 cents to $3.1166 per gallon, gasoline futures decreased 7.91 cents to $3.267 per gallon and natural gas rose 3.5 cents to $2.016 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Read the full article →

The Faddish Past And Big Money Future Of Chia Seeds

April 16, 2012

Five years ago, the word “chia” made most Americans think of one thing: Chia Pets. The association lingers. But today, chia seeds are beginning to gain recognition as one of the world’s healthiest foods. The seeds, which are completely tasteless, are high in protein and fiber and contain incredibly high levels of Omega-3 fatty acids, which have been shown to protect function of the heart and other vital organs. The shelves of Whole Foods are brimming with chia-packed products, from juices to energy bars. You can buy four one-pound bags of raw chia seed at Walmart for $37.56. “Chia could be the next big superfood,” John Roulac, CEO of Nutiva Foods, the leading producer of organic chia, told The Huffington Post. “The growth in demand for chia is almost like a hurricane, it’s so intense.” What makes that transformation so remarkable is that for centuries, almost no one was even aware that chia seeds were edible. Chia had been the third-most important crop for the Aztec empire, after corn and beans. But because it was used in Aztec religious ceremonies, conquistadors suppressed its cultivation by all but a few remote tribes for 500 years. Wayne Coates, an ultramarathon-running professor of agricultural engineering at the University of Arizona, entered the picture in 1991. He was trying to find a profitable crop that could be grown in northwest Argentina, as part of a project he was working on with Argentinian farmers. Someone — he said he doesn’t remember who — suggested chia. He found that it was easy to grow, so he started to investigate its potential uses. What he found astounded him. “Chia is the highest plant source of Omega-3s. It has tons of fiber, and even a lot of antioxidants and minerals. It’s 20 percent protein — which is, compared to wheat, or even soy, incredibly high,” Coates told The Huffington Post. Further analysis convinced him chia had vast potential. Initially, he thought it might work well in livestock feed, to increase the amount of Omega-3s that made it into eggs and milk. That worked, but the relatively high price of chia kept farmers away. So Coates started to think about selling chia directly to consumers instead. He began visiting trade fairs, hoping to find a company that would include chia seeds in its products, but he said no one wanted to be the first to bet on an unproven ingredient. In 2005, Coates published a book on the topic entitled “Chia: Redisovering A Forgotten Crop Of The Aztecs,” but it attracted little notice outside of his native Arizona. But in the late 2000s, two high-profile supporters emerged. Dr. Mehmet Oz started promoting chia as a “superfood” on “Oprah.” He showed fans how to incorporate chia into their diets by adding it to smoothies and to muffins. His endorsement encouraged health-food early adopters — who were eager for a new fad after tiring of acai and pomegranate — to seek out chia seeds. Then chia was featured in Christopher McDougall’s “Born To Run,” a best-selling inspirational tract for runners. McDougall profiled a legendary long-distance runner named Micah True, who learned about chia from the Tarahumara tribe of native Mexicans. The book increased awareness of chia in the athletic community. Chia sales skyrocketed, and Coates quickly found that its popularity had ballooned far beyond what he had imagined. (His second chia-related book, “Chia: The Complete Guide To The Ultimate Superfood,” comes complete with recipes and will be released on May 1.) New companies, including Nutiva, began producing it, as many others in the food industry began to realize that the seeds’ blandness gave them a wide range of potential applications. One such person is Janie Campbell, a self-declared health food nut from Southern California and the founder of beverage company Mamma Chia. She started adding chia to juice after realizing that it worked to reduce symptoms of an autoimmune disorder she’d faced for decades. Campbell said her friends were so enthusiastic that she decided to sell the juices commercially in 2010. Mamma Chia is now available in 2000 stores, including most Whole Foods locations. As the chia market became more competitive, people began to make bold claims about the seeds’ benefits. Many — including Coates — started to say that chia seeds help people lose weight, that chia seeds increase energy and that they lower peoples’ cholesterol. The problem was that controlled studies had continually failed to bear those claims out. “The people who are involved in the chia seed world are almost like a cult,” said David Nieman, a doctor who has conducted numerous studies on chia seeds. “They just think it’s god’s gift to mankind, that it can do all sorts of magical things. But it’s not true.” The cautionary tale in this arena is that of the acai berry. It, too, was a newly-introduced food from South America that was often billed as a “superfood.” And it, too, started to attract unsupportable claims, which ultimately sullied its image in the eyes of many consumers. For that reason, those who market chia seeds have shifted their focus away from specific health claims and toward simple statements about the uncontroversial nutritiousness of the chia seed. April Hallaway, head of marketing for Australia’s The Chia Company, which now grows nearly half the world’s chia, explained, “The last thing we do is to market chia as a fad.” In Australia, the seeds’ appeal stretches far beyond health food nuts and athletes. They’re included in foods as pedestrian as mass-market white bread. But before that can happen in the U.S., many argue that the supply of chia — currently dominated by The Chia Company and small farms in Latin America — needs to become more reliable. Enter Kentucky Chia, founded by a group of business students at the University of Louisville with the goal of making chia into a commodity crop. The company holds the patent for a new strain of chia that can be grown in the U.S., which was developed using a process that accelerates genetic mutation using gamma rays. (The technique does not technically qualify as genetic modification, but it’s close enough to unnerve traditional chia fans like Coates and Roulac.) Kentucky Chia hopes to start selling its chia as horse feed in 2013. But CEO Zack Pennington says that’s only the beginning. “Right now, we mostly eat chia raw, by itself, but I think its ultimate trajectory is as an ingredient,” he told The Huffington Post. “Sometime soon, I think we’ll see chia added to everything: Vitamin Water with chia, Kashi cereal with chia, chia-seed bread at Subway.” Is he worried, though, that chia might just be a temporary fad — as its terra cotta brethren turned out to be? “As long as people recognize not only how good it is, but also its limitations, it will last,” he said. “iPods were a trend — and now they’re just part of your daily life. That’s where we think chia seeds are headed.”

Read the full article →

Toy Company Allegedly Laundered Drug Money

April 16, 2012

LOS ANGELES — Five people were arrested Monday in connection with a money laundering scheme that allegedly funneled millions of dollars in Colombian and Mexican drug money through an American toy company, federal officials said. Immigration and Customs Enforcement said the two owners of Industry-based Woody Toys and three company employees were arrested on charges of evading federal reporting requirements for financial transactions. Two Mexican toy dealers were arrested earlier this month in the case on similar charges, the agency said in a statement. Woody’s co-owner Jia Hui Zhou and toy dealer Luis Ernesto Flores Rivera are also charged with conspiring to launder money in a scheme that officials said channeled at least $6 million to the California toy company between 2005 and 2011. The case is the second involving a Los Angeles-area toy company accused of laundering drug profits and comes as countries such as Mexico tighten banking regulations, said Claude Arnold, special agent in charge for ICE homeland security investigations in Los Angeles. “They can’t walk up with duffel bags of money and continue with their business,” Arnold said. “They have to find creative ways to convert that money into pesos and launder it so it doesn’t look like illegal proceeds.” All seven of the defendants were due in federal court in Los Angeles Monday afternoon. The indictment was handed up last week against the seven defendants and the company. A message was left for Zhou’s attorney, David Elden. Flores Rivera had no attorney listed as of Monday afternoon, ICE officials said. The Mexican toy dealers bought U.S. dollars made off drug sales from currency brokers in a “black market peso exchange,” officials said. That exchange enabled drug traffickers to get rid of drug dollars and gave the toy dealers a more favorable exchange rate so they could then purchase toys in the United States, authorities said. The dealers would then send the money to Woody Toys via courier or bank deposits. Authorities said Woody Toys failed to file required paperwork when the company received deposits of more than $10,000 and also intentionally structured bank deposits in smaller increments to avoid having to do so. If convicted of evading federal reporting requirements, the defendants could face up to five years in prison. The money laundering charge can carry a sentence of up to 20 years in prison. The investigation started in November 2010 following a money laundering probe at Los Angeles-area toy wholesaler Angel Toy. That company’s two top executives were sentenced earlier this year to more than three years in prison after pleading guilty to conspiracy to structure currency transactions. The probe into Woody Toys – which features teddy bears and blond-haired dolls on its website – was carried out by immigration officials, Internal Revenue Service investigators and a Southern California task force headed by the Drug Enforcement Administration. No one at the company’s offices in Industry would comment for this story.

Read the full article →

Private Equity Doing Just Fine, Thanks

April 16, 2012

The boom times are back, sort of, for private equity, but don’t break out the champagne just yet. More companies backed by private equity went public or were sold in the first quarter of this year than in any first quarter since 2007, according to data from the private equity research company PitchBook Data, as CNN Money reported . During the first quarter of this year, private equity firms either sold or took public 112 companies, bringing in roughly $21 billion. That represents a 17 percent increase from the first quarter of last year, when 96 private equity-backed companies were sold or issued shares to the public, according to PitchBook. “A lot of things are gradually improving,” John Gabbert, founder and CEO of PitchBook, told The Huffington Post. While this marks the best first quarter for private-equity firms selling their stakes since 2007 — a big year for private equity deals — it’s too early to say if the market is back to full health. To put the latest results in perspective, private-equity firms sold or took public a total of 510 companies during all of 2007. Kathy Smith, a principal at Renaissance Capital, an institutional research and asset management company focusing on IPOs, said, “2012 looks like a good year to me.” But, “the markets are still volatile; we’re not really out of the woods with all of this panic,”added Smith, referring to the stock markets. “And when you get panic, you get a shutdown of the IPO market.” Last week, California solar power developer BrightSource Energy announced that it was withdrawing its IPO, citing poor market conditions. Meanwhile some large-scale private equity firms have been taking themselves public as well, with lackluster results. Last week, the IPO of private equity firm Oak Tree Capital Group proved lackluster when the firm raised 27 percent less than the amount expected after the shares premiered. On Monday, the Caryle Group announced plans to make 10 percent of its firm available for public trading. The firm’s valuation would be just slightly more than $7 billion , a fairly cautious estimate, ranking it below rivals Blackstone and KKR, according to Bloomberg . Contributing to the recent boom might be the plum tax benefits that private equity firms enjoy when they spin off a company, as CNNMoney noted. Revenues from the sale of a company owned by a private equity firm are currently taxed at the 15 percent capital gains rate, which matches the rate that partners of private equity firms personally pay on the profits from their deals. (This compares with the top tax rate on income of 35 percent, as CNNMoney pointed out.) Venture capital-backed IPOs are off to a good start this year as well. Twenty U.S.-based venture capital-funded companies went public in the first quarter, raising a total of $1.4 billion. That makes it the most active period since the fourth quarter of 2007, which had 27 VC-backed IPOs raising $2.1 billion, according to data from Dow Jones VentureSource. Yet, in spite of the massive, well-publicized $1 billion acquisition of VC-backed Instagram by Facebook last week , the market for venture capital-backed acquisitions — that is, one company buying another company financed by VC funding — is down, according to VentureSource. Ninety-four VC-backed companies were acquired in the first quarter, raising 18.1 billion — a 32 percent decrease from the same period last year.

Read the full article →

Many More Teens Dying From Prescription Drug Abuse, Government Study Shows

April 16, 2012

An uptick in teenagers overdosing on prescription drugs drove the almost doubling of fatal poisonings among American children, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports Monday. From 2000 to 2009, the number of children aged 15 to 19 who died from poisoning increased by 91 percent, the CDC says. The big jump in poisonings ran counter to the overall rate of deaths from unintentional injuries to people up to age 19, which fell 29 percent to 11 in 100,000 children, or 9,143 fatalities, in 2009. Childhood death from poisoning rose 80 percent over the 10-year time period, owing largely to the huge increase in such deaths among children aged 15 to 19. Prescription drug abuse is to blame, according to the CDC. “The percentage of poisoning deaths among those aged 15–19 years with prescription drugs as a contributing cause increased from 30% in 2000 to 57% in 2009,” the report says. The Obama administration’s Drug Enforcement Agency has stepped up efforts to target physicians, pharmacies and other medicine suppliers it suspects of facilitating sales of prescription medicines that make their way onto the black market. The White House issued a multi-agency plan to combat prescription drug abuse last year. Narcotic prescription painkiller overdoses kill 40 people a day, according to the CDC. Thirty-seven percent of all children who died in 2009 were killed as a result of unintentional injuries, making it the leading cause of death for children from ages 1 to 19. “In 2009, child and adolescent unintentional injuries resulted in approximately 9,000 deaths, 225,000 hospitalizations, and 8.4 million patients treated and released from emergency departments,” the CDC report says. Boys are more likely than girls to die this way. Automobile accidents remained the number-one cause of unintentional injury-related deaths among children, despite a 41 percent reduction in the rate of these fatalities between 2000 and 2009, the CDC reports. In 2009, 4,564 children died as a result of motor vehicle incidents. Like poisonings, suffocations also increased and were the cause of death for 907 babies in 2009. Photo by Flickr user TerryJohnston

Read the full article →

For Once, Apple Drags Down Markets

April 16, 2012

NEW YORK — For most of the year, Apple has propelled the Nasdaq composite index forward. The stock climbed from $405 at the start of the year to more than $630 last week, and the Nasdaq easily beat the gains of other indexes. Now Apple is sliding the other way and taking the Nasdaq with it. Apple stock dropped more than $25 on Monday, its fifth straight day of declines. The losing streak has wiped out about $60 billion of Apple’s market value. That’s more than the most optimistic projections of the value of Facebook. Apple helped push the Nasdaq composite index down 22.93 points on Monday to 2,988.40. The index is now up about 15 percent for the year after almost reaching 20 percent by the end of March. “It’s been a very quirky market because it’s been a few companies that have delivered most of the rally this year,” said Mark Lamkin, CEO of Lamkin Wealth Management in Louisville, Ky. “It’s not been a broad-based rally.” Apple, still the most valuable company in the world, accounts for 12 percent of the Nasdaq, more than any other stock. It has been on an almost uninterrupted climb for three years, powered by its hot iPhones and iPads. But last week, a veteran technology analyst boldly issued a downgrade for Apple. He predicted that cellphone companies would probably stop offering such generous subsidies for customers to adopt the iPhone. Investors may also be locking in profits and getting out before Apple reports earnings April 24. Even after the five-day decline, Apple stock is up 43 percent for the year. “It’s had a huge run,” said Burt White, chief investment officer of LPL Financial in Boston. “Some investors probably said, `Might as well take some profits.’” The broader stock market was flat, helped by strong March retail sales but hurt by continuing concerns about rising borrowing costs for debt-troubled Spain. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index dropped 0.69 point to 1,369.57. Apple dragged down other technology stocks, which fell more than any other industry group in the S&P. Google, which went to trial Monday against Oracle in a copyright case over the Android phone, dropped for the second day in a row. Utility stocks and banks rose, while energy companies and so-called consumer discretionary stocks fell. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 71.82 points to 12,921.41, a gain of 0.6 percent. All but six of the 30 stocks that make up the Dow rose for the day, explaining why it rose while the S&P was flat. Apple is not part of the Dow. The government reported that retail sales rose 0.8 percent compared to the previous month, twice what analysts had been expecting. Skeptics noted that was less than February’s 1 percent increase. They also wondered whether the buying was just a result of the mild winter, rather than a sign of recovery: If people are buying lawn mowers and other warm-weather goods now, then they probably won’t be later in the year. Building materials and garden equipment enjoyed the biggest jump in March. “It’s nice to see the retail sales were strong, but it’s one month and it’s one data point and it’s not even the biggest data point,” said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer’s Investment Research in Cincinnati. “Honestly, jobs are much more important.” Earlier this month, the government reported that the U.S. added 120,000 jobs in March, about half the pace of the previous three months. Spain’s borrowing costs climbed above the closely watched 6 percent mark as investors grew more worried about the country’s ability to pay its debts. Seven percent is the rate at which other European countries have been forced to seek bailouts. Sweden cut its economic forecast for the year, saying that problems elsewhere in Europe were spreading its way. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was steady at 1.98 percent. Among stocks making moves: _ Mattel plummeted more than 9 percent after reporting a 53 percent drop in first-quarter earnings. The country’s largest toy maker is wrestling with lower sales of Hot Wheels and Barbies. It just bought HIT Entertainment, the company behind Thomas the Tank Engine and Bob the Builder. _ Endocyte doubled to $7.62 after reporting that Merck, the world’s second-largest drugmaker, will develop and market its experimental cancer drug. Endocyte, based in West Lafayette, Ind., has no products on the market.

Read the full article →

Fed Officials Leave For Wall Street With Privileged Info

April 16, 2012

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve may be making an effort to open up some of its famously opaque decision making, but the newfound interest in transparency doesn’t extend to sharing records of meetings that happened years ago. The Huffington Post and MSNBC’s “Dylan Ratigan Show” filed Freedom of Information Act requests in January to obtain the minutes of Federal Open Market Committee meetings from 2007 to 2010. That month, the Fed had released the 2006 minutes of the confidential committee, which essentially sets national monetary policy. In response, the bank provided 513 pages of mostly blacked-out paper and cited policy to justify withholding the information. “[T]he Committee has a long-standing policy of routinely releasing full transcripts on a five-year schedule. Each year’s transcripts will be made public in their entirety according to that schedule,” the bank offered by way of explanation. By withholding the 2007 and 2008 minutes, the Fed is able to keep secret certain information on how it decided to respond to the financial crisis until after the presidential election, hampering what could be a serious debate between the two parties on its response. During the financial crisis, Mitt Romney was broadly supportive of the federal response, with the exception of the bailout of the auto industry. He has since spoken much more skeptically of the Wall Street bailout. Barack Obama, as a candidate and then as president, spoke favorably of the federal intervention as unfortunate but necessary. On Friday, his Treasury Department released a full-throated defense of its activity. How the Fed made its decisions, however, will be kept hidden until the bank releases the transcripts year by year. “The Federal Reserve has been looking for ways to increase its transparency now for many years, and we’ve made a lot of progress,” Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in April 2011, as he embarked on a series of lectures aimed at defending the Fed. “We have become, I think, a very — a very transparent central bank.” Bernanke said the bank would continue to improve. “We’re continuing to look for additional things that we can do to be more transparent and more accountable,” he said a year ago. “And I personally have always been a big believer in providing as much information as you can to help the public understand what you’re doing, to help the markets understand what you’re doing, and to be accountable to the public for what you’re doing.” There are some market participants, however, who know exactly what happened in those meetings. One of the few things not redacted in the Fed’s FOIA response is the list of officials who attended each confidential meeting. Many of those people have since left the central bank and gone to work in the financial industry, taking with them privileged information about the Fed’s thinking that is still closed to the public. Take Susan Bies. A onetime member of the Fed Board of Governors, she was involved with the Financial Stability Forum, an international group of central bankers, finance ministers and the like, and, according to Forbes , “led the Fed’s efforts to modernize the Basel capital accord.” Bies now sits on Bank of America’s board. Brian Sack has cycled between the Fed and the private sector more than once. In 2009, he returned to manage the System Open Market Account. Bernanke said at the time, “Many of you know Brian, I am sure. He was here. He went off to work with Larry Meyer for awhile. Now we welcome him back to the Fed family.” Laurence Meyer was himself a top Fed governor who left in 2002 to return to the firm he founded, Macroeconomic Advisers, which offers economic forecasts. David Stockton, another Fed official who attended Federal Open Market Committee meetings in question, also departed to join Meyer’s firm. In 2012, Sack once again left the Fed . Deborah Bailey has since gone on to Deloitte & Touche, where she is director of governance, regulatory and risk strategies. Meredith Beechey is now at Sveriges Riksbank, Paul Connolly is at Eastern Bank/John Hancock Life Insurance Co., and Benson Durham is at the Capital Group Companies. Joseph Gagnon, Michael Gapen and Jon Greenlee have moved on to the Peterson Institute, Barclays Capital and KPMG, respectively. Brian Madigan also went to Barclays, and Nathan Sheets is now at Citigroup. At least eight other meeting participants have moved on to private financial institutions. Clients deeply value the kind of insight a former Fed insider can bring — a value Citi didn’t overlook in its announcement of Sheets’ hiring, which featured this quote : “With over 18 years of experience with the Federal Reserve, Nathan’s appointment underscores Citi’s commitment to bring the highest quality insights to our clients.” Jason Cherkis contributed reporting to this story.

Read the full article →

With Health Care Reform, Workers May Trade Insurance For Raises

April 16, 2012

Would you give up your health insurance for a raise? A minority of big companies offered extra pay to workers who waived their health benefits last year. This practice, which was common decades ago, could see a resurgence once the biggest parts of President Barack Obama’s health care reform law take effect in 2014 and start to rearrange the health insurance market. Last year, 17 percent of employers with at least 500 workers gave a little extra money to those who turned down an offer of health insurance, according to a survey conducted by the human-resources advisory firm Mercer that will be published later this month. The Huffington Post obtained early access to the data. The median amount of extra pay was $1,000, which is considerably less than the $11,664 average cost an employer and worker incur for job-based health insurance this year, according to the consulting company Towers Watson. Jobs are the most common source of health insurance for working-age Americans and provide 154 million people with coverage, according to the Congressional Budget Office. But the implementation in 2014 of new benefit requirements on employers and individuals, along with the creation of health insurance “exchanges” and federal subsidies for individuals, families, and small businesses, will change how many Americans get health plans , unless the Supreme Court strikes down the law on constitutional grounds . The health care reform law includes a “pay or play” requirement that companies with at least 50 employees must either provide employees with health benefits or pay penalties as high as $3,000 per worker to offset the government’s cost of subsidizing insurance coverage. Although jobs are projected to remain the number-one source of health coverage, some workers will be affected, since the penalty is less money than the insurance coverage. In some cases, that will mean higher paychecks to make up for lost benefits . In 2006, Dallas resident Red Coine was offered that deal by Cisco Systems, where he was a network engineer working as a contractor. Coine, who is now 35, got an extra $200 a month and bought his own health insurance for $88, so he came out $112 ahead. “I never regretted giving up the company insurance, and no one ever mentioned to me or complained about not having it,” he told HuffPost via email. The connection between jobs and health insurance has been weakening over the years for reasons unrelated to Obama’s health care reform law. Rising health care costs have led more employers to drop coverage: Between 2001 and 2011, the percentage of companies offering health benefits dropped from 68 percent to 60 percent . The health care reform law created incentives that will lead some employers to maintain coverage or begin offering benefits, but cost pressures will likely cause other companies to stop providing health insurance to some or all of their workers. According to another Mercer survey , 91 percent of firms with at least 500 workers are likely to keep offering health benefits. Employees of smaller companies are more likely to lose coverage, but are already more likely to not have it in the first place, according to Mercer. Overall, 14 million fewer workers will get insurance from their jobs as a result of health care reform, and all but 2 million will find coverage elsewhere, thanks to the law’s federal subsidies and insurance market reforms, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Economists also predict companies that drop insurance for some or all of their workers will boost their compensation by raising pay or strengthening other fringe benefits. People earning between 133 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level — $30,657 to $92,200 for a family of four this year — would qualify for federal tax credits to defray the cost of health insurance, which could make it cheaper than the coverage available at work, said Tom Billet, a senior consultant at Towers Watson.

Read the full article →

David Burwell: Of Oil Prices and Elephants

April 16, 2012

Six wise men of Industan, of learning much inclined, went to see an elephant, though all of them were blind, that each by observation might satisfy his mind. The debate over gas prices, what causes them to soar and crash, and who is to blame, is a parlor game played out in Washington at the start of the driving season every spring, and even more so in presidential election years. It is a redundant, blind-leading-the-blind discussion. So, let’s see if we can parse the arguments made by the proponents of the various “truths” about gasoline prices to find the culprit. By analogy, we will track the arguments to the classic J. G. Saxe poem, “The Blind Men and the Elephant,” with oil being the “elephant” in the room. The first approached the elephant and happening to fall against his broad and sturdy side at once began to bawl, “This mystery of an elephant is very like a wall.” The wall of worry — that some natural (like a hurricane) or man-made (such as a terrorist act, a war, or an embargo ) disaster will cut off our access to oil and drive gasoline prices higher. This is a fear that oil exporters of any stripe diligently encourage. And it is partly true–Hurricane Katrina cut off both access to oil and caused refineries to shut down, causing a gasoline price spike. But the United States, like all net oil importing nations, have set up strategic petroleum reserves to safeguard access to oil in times of such interruptions. The U.S. strategic reserves already have more than 200 days of U.S. oil imports safely stored in salt domes in Texas. Absent an OPEC-like coordinated embargo, which would do more damage to OPEC than to oil importers (see below), these interruptions will be short term and the price hike mild. So risk of supply interruption can’t fully explain the problem. The second, feeling of the tusk, cried “Lo what have we here, so very round and smooth and sharp? To me ’tis mighty clear, this wonder of an elephant is very like a spear.” The spear of the gas tax — a tax that pierces the heart of every American driver. But the 18.4-cent federal gas tax is less than 5 percent of the price of a gallon of gasoline. It is also getting smaller as a percentage every day as gasoline prices rise. Add state and local gas taxes and the average is still only 12 percent of the total price per gallon — one of the lowest in the world. It also has not risen since 1993 — even though fully 60 percent of Americans think the gas tax rises every year. While this tax is supposed to keep our transportation infrastructure in good shape and performing efficiently, it is so inadequate to meet present needs that the quality of U.S. infrastructure has fallen, according to the World Economic Forum, from fifth in 2001 to twenty-third place globally. So gas taxes — while a minor contributor — can’t be the culprit either. The third approached the elephant, and happening to take the squirming trunk within his hands, thus boldly up and spake, “I see,” quoth he, the elephant, is very like a snake.” The snake of speculation — this argument appears to have some merit, especially if one compares global daily consumption of oil (89 million barrels) to actual oil traded on public commodity markets every day (over three billion barrels ). Clearly most oil traded is done by those who have no intention of ever taking possession of it. This argument is bolstered by commentators who note the existence of ” dark pools ” of oil traded privately between oil companies, banks, and investment companies as a kind of reserve currency. These private trades are estimated to be many multiples higher than publicly-traded oil stocks and can lock up inventories, thus causing prices to soar even in times of low demand and high supply. A recent study by the St. Louis Federal Reserve estimates that speculation accounts for about 15 percent of the oil price rise over the last ten years. But it also says that “fundamentals (supply and demand) continue to account for the long-term trend in oil prices.” This snake, if it has a bite, is not poisonous. The fourth reached out with eager hand, and felt above the knee, “what this most wondrous beast is like is very plain” said he, “tis clear enough the elephant is very like a tree.” The ever-growing tree of demand expansion — true, global demand for oil has risen over the last decade, from 76 million barrels per day in 2000 to 87 million in 2010 , but supply has kept pace. Moreover, OECD oil consumption has peaked and is now in decline , and new, unconventional oils have expanded potential supply to meet all needs far beyond the time their carbon emissions will push global temperatures to catastrophic levels. The simple fact is that the OPEC nations, with 77 percent of global proven oil reserves and 42 percent of production, have models that calibrate the exact amount of that oil to put on the market to secure maximum financial return. The United States, representing about 10 percent of global production but 20 percent of global consumption, cannot substantially affect the oil price — nor can more drilling. In fact, America already has more than 50 percent of all the in-use wells in the world. Canada, which produces 50 percent more oil than it consumes , has higher gasoline prices than the United States. The fifth, who chanced to touch the ear said, “E’en the blindest man, can tell what this resembles most — deny the fact who can; This marvel of an elephant is very like a fan.” The fan of inflation — the theory goes that as the U.S. continues printing money to cover its trillion-dollar deficits, inflation will rise and, with it, the price of oil, since it’s priced in dollars. Nice idea. But inflation remains tame while the price of oil has doubled since the depth of the Great Recession in early 2009. Inflation may be a future culprit, but it certainly is not pushing oil and gas prices up anytime soon. The sixth no sooner had begun about the beast to grope, than seizing on the swinging tail that fell within his scope; “I see,” said he, “the elephant, is very like a rope.” The rope of the resource curse — this is a little-understood contributor to the world oil price that may eventually hang the oil-exporting economies. These economies, primarily the OPEC countries, Norway, and Russia, are heavily dependent on export sales of their natural resources — especially oil — to fund their national budgets. Over 50 percent of the federal budget of the Russian Federation is from taxes on sales of exported oil, and this percentage is much higher in some Middle Eastern countries. These revenues are then disbursed to subsidize their social contracts with their citizens — cheap energy and low-cost housing, without which social unrest would accelerate. This requires ever-rising oil prices. Ten years ago, Russia could fund its social contract at a world barrel price of oil of $20. But by this year, Moscow’s budget needs an average price of $115 a barrel to break even. The Middle Eastern states are feeling the pinch as well: Barclay’s Capital recently estimated that the cost of the Arab Spring alone pushed the break-even point for Saudi Arabia’s budget from $78 a barrel to $91 a barrel — to fund the extra spending needed to prevent social unrest from threatening the regime. So, if gas prices are the elephant, did the six wise men find their answer? So six blind men of Industan disputed loud and long, each in his own opinion exceeding stiff and strong; though each was partly in the right, they all were in the wrong! As it is with elephants, so it is with oil prices — plenty of “wise men” talking about what drives oil prices and all are partly in the right — but mostly in the wrong. For the real answer on what is driving gas prices higher, let’s look into the mirror. We all hate high gasoline prices but we love the lifestyle that gasoline supports: the freedom of the open road — flat, straight, fast, and free (with no tolls). We buy up cheap land where you can “drive until you qualify” for a home mortgage (with interest deductible). We then expect the government to build and maintain the infrastructure that supports our 50-mile commute to work, even though we oppose the gas taxes that fund all the infrastructure that provides these very same lifestyle benefits. Until we grasp the reality that the price of oil is directly related to how we waste it, we will continue to dedicate countless hours and endless column inches looking for a different culprit. The elephant in the room is not the price of gasoline — it is us. David Burwell is the director of the energy and climate program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace .

Read the full article →

U.S. Lost $1 Billion To Banks In Last 10 Years Thanks To Tax Shelter

April 16, 2012

By Megan Murphy and Vanessa Houlder, Financial Times and Jeff Gerth, ProPublica In November 2001, Bank of New York, a mid-tier U.S. bank, transferred nearly $8 billion of its own assets to a trust in the small, business-friendly state of Delaware through several layers of newly created companies. A mixture of home mortgages, shares and other securities, the transferred assets made up almost 10 percent of the bank’s total assets at the time. Yet, the transaction was not discussed with BNY’s regulators; nor was it noted in the bank’s financial statements or annual report. It had little practical effect on the lender’s day-to-day operations 2014 the assets continued to be managed and serviced by the same employees in New York. But it was a critical first step in setting up a complex structure known as STARS 2014 structured trust advantaged repackaged securities 2014 which U.S. tax authorities claim was used by several American banks as an abusive tax shelter that has cost the government more than $1 billion in tax revenue in the past decade. This week, BNY will square off against the Internal Revenue Service in U.S. Tax Court in New York over STARS and the tax benefits tit triggered for the U.S. bank and U.K.-based Barclays, its counterpart in the deal. At issue is whether STARS was set up primarily to generate artificial foreign-tax credits, as the IRS contends; or was a legal way for BNY to obtain financing at rock-bottom rates. The arguments heard this week will pose a crucial test of the U.S. government’s resolve to rein in sophisticated corporate tax planning that has sapped vast amounts of potential revenue. Tax authorities worldwide, notably in the U.S. and U.K., are under mounting pressure to show that large companies are shouldering their share of the tax burden as part of a broader political debate about fairness and corporate social responsibility. “We are upping our game in the large business area, particularly as it relates to international tax issues,” Douglas Shulman, the U.S. internal revenue commissioner, said in a speech this month in Washington, D.C. For the IRS, losing the STARS disputes would be a serious blow to its strategy in high-value cases, tax lawyers said. For the banks, the risk is both financial 2014 $900 million is at stake in the BNY case alone 2014 and to their reputations. An investigation last year by the Financial Times and ProPublica first detailed how STARS produced tax benefits for U.S. banks beginning in 1999. In all, six banks 2014 BNY (now Bank of New York Mellon), BB&T, Sovereign (now a unit of Santander), Wachovia (now part of Wells Fargo), Washington Mutual and Wells Fargo 2014 participated in STARS deals with Barclays between 1999 and 2006. Five of those banks are challenging IRS rulings that disallowed foreign tax credits generated in those transactions. WaMu has settled a STARS dispute in bankruptcy court by agreeing to forgo $160 million in claimed tax credits. In total, the IRS says, the STARS deals created $3.4 billion in foreign tax credits. Now, documents filed in BNY’s case in the past few weeks 2014 the court proceedings begin Monday 2014 provide unprecedented detail about how STARS was crafted at a time when banks and accounting firms were offering deals for multinational corporations to take advantage of loopholes in rules governing foreign tax credits. At the simplest level, foreign tax credits are designed to prevent U.S. companies from being taxed twice on overseas income by allowing them to claim credit for taxes paid in foreign jurisdictions. In the BNY case, the IRS claims STARS allowed both Barclays and BNY to claim credits for the same “illusory” foreign tax charges, ultimately reducing the U.S. government’s tax revenue by $18.15 for every $100 of income funneled through the Delaware trust. “The record will establish that STARS was a pricey financing that no prudent banker would undertake but for the tax benefits generated by the meaningless circulation of cash flows,” according to a court filing by the IRS on March 27. BNY has argued that the deal was a complex but entirely legal , allowing the bank access to low-cost financing from Barclays for its everyday business activities. Brainchild of Barclays Like hundreds of other foreign-tax-driven transactions sold to companies in the boom years before the financial crisis of 2008, STARS was developed by Barclays’ famed structured finance group, known as Structured Capital Markets. Roger Jenkins, one of Britain’s best-known dealmakers, and Iain Abrahams, the expert behind most of the bank’s tax arbitrage transactions, led SCM. The idea was for STARS to manufacture tax credits for Barclays and a U.S. corporate taxpayer by circulating U.S. income through an entity taxed in the U.K., the IRS said in its filing. Because of the differences between U.S. and U.K. accounting rules, STARS would allow Barclays to reimburse a U.S. company for half the tax paid in the U.K. while not reducing the amount of foreign tax credits that could be claimed by either party, the IRS said. Barclays is not a party to the IRS dispute with BNY and has not been accused of wrongdoing by U.S. authorities. According to the IRS, blue-chip U.S. companies including Microsoft and insurers AIG and Prudential Life passed on early versions of STARS for unspecified reasons. But the IRS said BNY, which bought the deal in 2001, had grown “addicted” to tax-driven transactions, which provided it with an important source of revenue. Before buying STARS, the IRS says, BNY had entered into more than 100 “lease-back” transactions, known as Lilos and Silos, that produced tax advantages. Shortly after participating in STARS, BNY also purchased from Barclays another foreign-tax-credit structure, nicknamed Toga, that involved high-grade debt securities, the IRS said. “Barclays understood that BNY was highly receptive to a wide range of tax-based ideas, and had targeted BNY for an SCM 2018tax product’ after discussions with BNY senior executives,” the IRS said in its court filing. The IRS also described KPMG as a pivotal player. The accounting firm provided a U.S. tax opinion blessing the structure for Barclays and sold STARS to BNY for a fee of $6 million, according to the IRS filing. David Brockway, then of KPMG, was engaged to provide the firm’s opinion on STARS, and is expected to testify at trial, according to the IRS. Brockway, a leading U.S. tax lawyer, left KPMG in April 2005 amid scrutiny of the firm’s previous sales of potentially abusive tax shelters. The IRS also has named lawyer Raymond Ruble, formerly a partner at Sidley Austin in Washington, D.C., as a key adviser on the structure. Ruble was convicted of multiple counts of income-tax evasion in a separate tax-shelter case involving wealthy taxpayers in 2009. He is in a federal prison in Lewisburg, Pa. The IRS, Barclays, BNY, KPMG and Sidley Austin declined to comment on the case. Jenkins, now a partner at the Brazilian investment bank BTG Pactual; Abrahams, still a senior executive at Barclays in London; and Brockway, now a Washington-based partner at the law firm Bingham McCutchen LLP, also declined to comment. $900 Million Disputed Both sides acknowledge that BNY’s STARS deal was executed through highly choreographed steps. First, BNY transferred about $7.9 billion of income-producing assets to the Delaware trust through layers of newly created subsidiaries. Barclays, as the counterpart, acquired shares in the trust, giving it a right to nearly all the income generated by the assets. In return, Barclays loaned $1.5 billion to BNY, also via the trust. Barclays and BNY then executed a repurchase agreement, or “repo,” under which BNY agreed to buy back the shares in the Delaware trust five years later, in November 2006. BNY appointed a U.K. company as trustee of the Delaware trust, making the income it produced subject to U.K. tax. At the outset of the deal, the trust’s pool of assets were expected to generate about $460 million of income a year 2014 of which, at a tax rate of 22 percent, $100 million would be paid to U.K. tax authorities. When the trust income failed to reach $460 million, as expected, BNY injected extra assets, essentially to boost the income stream. At the heart of the structure are differences between how it is treated under U.S. and U.K. tax law. Under U.K. rules, Barclays was allowed to take a deduction against its other taxable income in the U.K. on the condition that it immediately reinvested the income produced by the assets in the trust. But it was able to simultaneously take a credit for the tax paid by the trust. According to the IRS, those tax benefits were shared with BNY, generating gains for both banks. For every $100 of income circulated through the trust, the U.S. government lost $18.15, which funded BNY’s profit of $7.15, Barclays’ profit of $7.70 and U.K. tax receipts of $3.30, the IRS claims. But under U.S. tax law, the deal was considered a secured lending arrangement. So, subject to U.S. tax rules, BNY, as owner of the U.K. trust, could also claim a foreign tax credit for the U.K. taxes paid. In 2001 and 2002, BNY claimed nearly $200 million in foreign tax credits from the STARS structure, which the IRS has disallowed. Including interest, the total amount in dispute is about $900 million, according to the bank’s most recent annual report. “The foreign tax credits that Bank of New York claimed in the U.S. at a 22 percent rate were far more than the actual U.K. tax attributable to STARS,” the IRS said in its filing. “In other words, Bank of New York claimed credits for phantom U.K. tax expense.” BNY is challenging the IRS’ refusal to allow the credits and says it entered the STARS deal to borrow low-cost funds. Because of the U.K. tax benefits the structure generated for Barclays, BNY claims the British bank was able to provide it with the five-year, $1.5 billion loan at more than three percentage points below the prevailing benchmark lending rate. “The complication was required by Barclays’ U.K. tax objectives, not by BNY,” the bank said in a court filing March 27. “By lending to [BNY] through the structure that Barclays designed, Barclays could offer a very favorable borrowing rate.” In the coming weeks, U.S. Tax Court will hear from the bankers, lawyers and accountants involved as well as a raft of experts. A final decision is not expected for at least several months. With much at stake, BNY and the IRS appear to be digging in for a protracted battle. In its latest filing, BNY accuses the government of using “emotionally laden” arguments to try to deliver a “sweet sound bite.” The IRS says “no rational person” would have participated in STARS if not for the foreign tax credits. Let the war of words begin. Vanessa Houlder covers taxation and Megan Murphy investment banking for the Financial Times in London. Senior reporter Jeff Gerth is in Washington, D.C.

Read the full article →

‘We’re Back In Full Crisis Mode’

April 16, 2012

* Spanish 10-year yields top 6 percent, contagion fears rise * German 10-year Bund yields hit record lows * Markets speculate ECB may resume bond-buying programme By Marius Zaharia LONDON, April 16 (Reuters) – Spanish 10-year government bond yields jumped above 6 percent for the first time this year on Monday as concerns over the country’s ability to keep its finances under control pushed debt markets back into “crisis mode”. Spanish yields were expected to rise further towards the 7 percent level beyond which debt costs are widely viewed as unsustainable unless the European Central Bank resumes its bond purchases after a two-month break. Yields on Germany’s benchmark 10-year Bund, viewed as the euro zone’s safest debt, hit a record low of 1.628 percent. The previous record was established in November 2011, at the height of the debt crisis and before the ECB injected around 1 trillion euros of cheap three-year funds into the banking system. “We’re back in full crisis mode,” Rabobank rate strategist Lyn Graham-Taylor said. “It is looking more and more likely that Spain is going to have some form of a bailout. Assuming there is not an (ECB) intervention you would not see a cap on Spanish yields, they would just keep increasing.” The latest blow to Spanish markets followed data on Friday that showed record borrowing by its banks from the ECB. Investors’ main fear is that banks parked most of the funds in domestic government debt, making them more vulnerable to sovereign stress. Spain faces a test of investor confidence this week with an auction of two- and 10-year bonds on Thursday. Spanish 10-year yields rose 11 basis points at 6.10 percent, five-year yields topped 5 percent, while two-year yields spiked to 3.75 percent, all 2012 highs. Six percent is psychologically important for markets as the pace at which yields rise has accelerated on previous occasions when that level was broken. Beyond 7 percent, Greece, Portugal and Ireland struggled to raise cash in the market and were forced to seek financial aid. Investec fixed income analyst Elisabeth Afseth said current yields indicated that the euro zone crisis had entered a new phase and that markets have put the effect of the ECB’s cash offerings behind them. “The ECB’s actions bought some time and provided some liquidity but it never was in a position to do anything about solvency … and this is what we’re facing now. I would not be surprised if yields go back to (record) levels,” Afseth said. Spanish yields hit euro-era highs of just under 7 percent in November last year, when Italy was considered the main source of contagion. Italian 10-year yields were over 7.5 percent at that time, compared with 5.6 percent on Monday. Underlining investor fears, the cost of insuring Spanish debt against default hit a record high at 522 basis points, meaning it costs of $522,000 a year to buy $10 million of protection, according to data from Markit. LESS SENSITIVE TO ECB Speculation the ECB could soon step in to ease the pressure was rife, although investors feared its bond-buying programme may have lost some of its potency after the central bank was given preferential treatment in Greece’s debt restructuring. The ECB seems reluctant to resume bond purchases, with Governing Council Member Klaas Knot saying on Friday he hoped the bank never has to use the programme again. “The problem … is that the bigger the position the ECB builds in a sovereign’s debt, the greater the private sector holders are likely to perceive their probability of default,” Credit Agricole rate strategist Peter Chatwell said in a note. “As such, the (programme) might be used more sparingly than in the past and we expect spreads to be less sensitive to any buying than they were last year.” Also stretching nerves in bond markets were signs that the world’s largest economies were hesitant to raise new resources for the International Monetary Fund to contain the euro zone crisis. The ongoing risk aversion should push Bund futures above their record high of 140.52 and head towards 141.20, a level projected by a trendline connecting recent highs, Commerzbank rate strategist Rainer Guntermann said.

Read the full article →

Confederacy Of Dunces

April 16, 2012

Four hundred miles without a word until you smile, four hundred miles on fields of fire. Less confusingly, there are only seven and a half things you need to know today. Here they are: Thing One: Europe: See, this is why nobody ever believes the Pollyannas who tell you things are just fine, so you can get on back in the stock market. Those same clowns told us everything was fine in Europe, too, a few months ago, and now look at it. It’s just a big mess again, The New York Times writes, with the euro at its lowest level in two months, super-safe German bunds at record highs and Spanish and Italian borrowing costs jumping through the roof. Why’s all this happening again? Well, funny story, the Goofball Circus that is Europe’s leadership decided that the best medicine for a starving economy was to choke off government spending, which resulted in the economy getting even weaker, which resulted in scads of people getting laid off, which resulted in lower tax revenues, which resulted in even worse government deficits and also a depression , writes Paul Krugman. Only now is Europe starting to seriously debate whether austerity is maybe possibly a bad thing, writes Reuters . Meanwhile, they’re coming hat-in-hand to the IMF for more cash to bail out their countries and banks and such. Speaking of which, the other genius idea the European Leadership had was to give European banks free money to buy up the bonds of shaky European countries. This Ponzi scheme worked for about three months, before the bond market started beating up on European bonds again — because of worries about the effects of austerity, writes Wolfgang Munchau in the Financial Times — and now suddenly these banks are saddled with more risky debt than ever and facing the prospect of rating downgrades , the Wall Street Journal reports. Thing Two: Buffett Rule Ruse: So the Senate votes on the Buffett Rule today, which would impose a minimum tax on millionaires. Don’t fret, Thurston Howell, the parliament of millionaires will shoot it down , but not before making GOP Senators shamefully take your side. Anyway, even if it did pass, it’s riddled with loopholes , writes 7.5 Things’ own Khadeeja Safdar. Thing Three: Google Fight Club: A great philosopher once opined that having more money often results simply in having more problems. Tell me about it, says Google, today entwined in not one but two legal tussles arising out of money. The first is with the FCC , which has its regulatory panties in a bunch because Google hasn’t been cooperating with its inquiry into Google’s plan to use its spare cash to take pictures of everything in the world and put them on the Internet. The second is with Oracle, which wants a cool billion dollars out of Google in a patent-infringement case going to court this week, the Wall Street Journal writes. Thing Four: Carlyle’s Modesty: Famous private-equity firm Carlyle Group, which occasionally employs former bigwigs from government, is going to sell shares of itself to the public — but not very many , writes the Washington Post . The trouble is that the stock market is not in great shape , and people really don’t like owning shares of these strange private-equity firms. Thing Five: Yuan It, You Got It: For years the United States has been griping about how China keeps its currency artificially cheap, to give it a leg up in making plastic junk that it then sells back to Americans for pennies. Well, China is starting to feel its oats a little bit and is starting to let its yuan get a little stronger , the Wall Street Journal writes. But only just a little, which means the griping from the U.S. will continue , Reuters writes. Thing Six: Mustang Sally: I tell you, these crazy kids today just aren’t interested in gas-guzzling death machines for some reason. To rectify this disappointing state of affairs, Ford wants to re-design its famous Mustang death machine to make it more appealing to the youngs somehow, by making it more Europe-y or YouTube-y or something, the Wall Street Journal writes . “The next generation would retain the shark-nosed grille and round headlights, but would look more like the new Ford Fusion than the current Mustang, these people said.” Yes, nothing quite says “buy me, youth,” like “Ford Fusion.” Thing Seven: Bond Sausage: Nothing spells the end of the last financial crisis — and the start of the new one — quite like the fact that Wall Street’s math wizards are once again busily stuffing financial instruments with all sorts of crap to sell to you, the public, so that you can spend your golden years eating cat food. The Wall Street Journal reports that asset-backed securities made out of whatever happens to be lying around the house — fast-food franchises, lottery tickets, whatevs — are back in vogue. Thing Seven And One Half: Hillary Gone Wild: Hillary Clinton is single-handedly trying to take over the Internet. Not satisfied with being her own meme , she is now living it up in South America with style , which is more than we can maybe say for the Bush twins or the Secret Service . Calendar Du Jour : Economic Data Releases : 8:30 a.m. ET: Retail sales for March 8:30 a.m.: Empire State manufacturing report for April 10:00 a.m.: NAHB housing market index for April Corporate Earnings Reports : All before 9:30 a.m.: Citigroup Gannett Mattel M&T Bank Charles Schwab Heard On The Tweets : @ritholtz : Too many people insisting that 2+2=5. Way too time consuming to overcome their cognitive dissonance. Its why Twitter’s Block was invented! @ObsoleteDogma : Who would win in a fight between Cory Booker & Chuck Norris? @ReformedBroker: Prepare to have your minds blown by this story http://t.co/lXwkv581 $GOOG @cate_long : “Titanic’s owner J. P. Morgan was scheduled to travel on the maiden voyage, but canceled at the last minute…” @zerohedge : OBAMA SAYS U.S. `ON TRACK’ TO GOAL OF DOUBLING EXPORTS. And quadrupling imports… All to Mars @zerohedge : Can everyone stop blaming the central banks already? It is not like markets are addicted to every word they utter or anything @WSJDealJournal : Just FYI: This is the second quarter in a row JPMorgan reported its earnings on Friday the 13th. Jamie Dimon is daring fate to intervene. — Calendar and tweets rounded up by Khadeeja Safdar. And you can follow us on Twitter, too: @markgongloff and @byKhadeeja

Read the full article →

Worries continue in markets on ongoing rise in Spanish bond yields

April 16, 2012

Worries remained predominant in markets on Monday after the rise in Spanish 10-year bond yield above 6%, raising speculations the euro area’s fourth-largest economy will soon ask for an …

Read the full article →

European markets are headed for a new bearish start

April 16, 2012

European stocks futures signaled a negative start before the opening on Monday as anxiety dominates the global markets regarding the euro zone debt crisis. The Spanish bond yields rose to alarming …

Read the full article →

EUR/JPY Classical Technical Report 04.16

April 16, 2012

EUR/JPY:The market is finally in the process of correcting following the latest surge to fresh 2012 highs just over 111.00. From here, we see risks for further weakness towards the 103.00 area, …

Read the full article →

USD/CAD Classical Technical Report 04.16

April 16, 2012

USD/CAD: Our constructive outlook remains intact despite the latest interday pullback with the market largely locked in a medium-term consolidation ahead of what we believe will be an eventual …

Read the full article →

AUD/USD Classical Technical Report 04.16

April 16, 2012

AUD/USD: Our bearish outlook in this market is being reaffirmed with the latest pullback and we continue to project deeper setbacks over the coming days and weeks back below parity. A fresh lower …

Read the full article →

NZD/USD Classical Technical Report 04.16

April 16, 2012

NZD/USD: The market has been locked in a sideways chop over the past several sessions to temporarily delay our bearish outlook. However, any rallies towards 0.8300 are viewed as a formidable …

Read the full article →

USD/JPY Classical Technical Report 04.16

April 16, 2012

USD/JPY:The market continues to correct from the recent 2012 highs established by 84.20 several days back and risks still exist for additional setbacks into the 79.00-80.00 area before considering …

Read the full article →

GBP/USD Classical Technical Report 04.16

April 16, 2012

GBP/USD: Failure to establish any fresh momentum on the recent break above 1.6000, followed by an aggressive bearish reversal now suggests that the market could finally be looking to carve a top …

Read the full article →

USD/CHF Classical Technical Report 04.16

April 16, 2012

USD/CHF: Our core constructive outlook remains well intact with the latest setbacks very well supported by psychological barriers at 0.9000. It now looks as though the market could be looking to …

Read the full article →

Scandi Rallies Should be Well Capped; Buy EUR/Scandi and USD/Scandi

April 16, 2012

Eur/Sek Setbacks have once again been very well supported ahead of the 8.75 level and the market looks to once again be attempting to carve a bottom in favor of renewed strength back towards the …

Read the full article →

US Dollar Index Classical Technical Report 04.16

April 16, 2012

US DOLLAR INDEX: The market remains locked in a multi-day consolidation and should continue to chop between the 9,600-10,100 area. Overall, we do retain a bullish outlook given the broader …

Read the full article →

Startup Turns Problem Solving Into Sport

April 15, 2012

SAN FRANCISCO — Strange secrets hide in numbers. For instance, an orange used car is least likely to be a lemon. This particular unexpected finding came to light courtesy of a data jockey who goes by the Internet alias SirGuessalot, who in fact wasn’t guessing at all. Instead, he and his partner, PlanetThanet, relied on the hard math skills that make them top contenders in a sport tailor-made for the 21st century: competitive number-crunching. The used car defect prediction contest is one of dozens hosted by San Francisco online startup Kaggle, whose creators believe they can tap the global geek population’s instinct for one-upmanship to mine better answers faster from the world’s ever-rising mountain of data. “Competitions bring together a wide variety of people into a wide variety of problems,” said Jeremy Howard, who became Kaggle’s president and chief scientist after winning multiple competitions himself. “You get people looking at stuff they’d never look at otherwise.” While the used car contest was fun, Kaggle has its eye on weightier scientific problems. In one contest, an English major who trained himself in data science built a model for predicting the progress of HIV infections in individual patients. In another, a scientist who studies glaciers for a living won a NASA-backed Kaggle competition to measure the shapes of galaxies by mapping the universe’s dark matter. The data problems that need solving are so important that those who find the solutions should be paid like professional athletes, said Kaggle founder Anthony Goldbloom. By turning data-mining into a crowdsourced contest, he hopes he’s created a way to make that happen. Already one of Kaggle’s contests offers a multimillion dollar prize. “We want to see the best data scientists earning more than Tiger Woods,” said Goldbloom, who started the company in his native Australia and recently came to San Francisco’s South of Market startup haven. The job market for mathematicians and statisticians has become hot as the sheer volume of data generated by ever faster, cheaper computing resources explodes. Data storage has become so inexpensive that a 2011 McKinsey and Co. report estimated that a disk drive capable of storing all the world’s music would cost about $600. Walmart stores 10 times more data on customer transactions and other parts of its operation than is contained in the entire Library of Congress, according to the same report. Analyzing the so-called “big data” deluge has become a key task for businesses in an effort to divine everything from which ads online customers will click to how much inventory they need to maintain. Political candidates analyze data to predict voting patterns. Dating websites try to predict ideal mates. Kaggle competitions focus on creating and testing formulas that can be used to make predictions based on the contents of giant datasets. The more accurate the formula, the better the chances it will accurately provide answers to complex questions, such as the orange used car being the least likely to break down. Goldbloom argues that no matter how many data scientists companies hire, relying on in-house data talent means companies can’t know if they’re getting the best solution. In a Kaggle contest, competitors find out as soon as they submit their solutions how they stack up against fellow contestants. They can keep trying for the duration of the typically three-month contests, which are highlighted on the company web site. As the first entries come in, the accuracy of competing models improves by leaps, Goldbloom said. As the contests progress, the improvement curve flattens out. Goldbloom and Howard believe that shows the competitive approach pushes data scientists toward the best solutions within human reach. “Crowdsourcing allows you to squeeze data dry,” Goldbloom said. Not all competitions are open to all comers, however. About 33,000 contestants have taken part in Kaggle’s public competitions, where prize money tends to top out at around $10,000. Winners can get invited to participate in elite private contests, which may include access to sensitive private data sets. Kaggle’s business model depends on deep-pocketed contest sponsors like banks seeking to outdo each other with more lucrative prize purses to attract the best competitors, who themselves in theory could then make their livings off Kaggle competitions alone. The biggest prize by far open to the public is $3 million offered by the California-based Heritage Provider Network medical group to the data scientist best able to use hospital admission records to predict the profiles of people most likely to end up in the hospital. The next-biggest purse is $100,000 in prizes put up by the Hewlett Foundation for algorithms that can automatically grade student essays. In its grandest vision of itself, the 11-person company backed by PayPal co-founder Max Levchin will have tens of thousands of competitions running simultaneously. Guilds of data gurus will band together to unleash software that enters competitions automatically. Kaggle becomes not just a way to push humans to perform at their best but to make machines themselves smarter as code-based contestants battle and “learn” from their mistakes. In this way, Howard said, data competitions become steps along the development of artificial intelligence systems such as self-driving cars. As for why orange used cars are most likely to be in good shape, the numbers did not hold the answer. One notion was that such a flashy color would only attract car fanatics who would be more likely to take care of their vehicles. That didn’t pan out, however, since the least well-kept used cars turned out to be purple. ___

Read the full article →

More Trouble For Twinkies Maker

April 15, 2012

DALLAS — The company that makes Twinkies, Wonder bread and Ding Dongs says it’s making a final offer to workers to accept cost-cutting before it asks a bankruptcy court to impose the cuts. Hostess Brands Inc. wants the Teamsters and bakers’ unions to accept reduced pension benefits and changes in work rules to lower costs. It wants to outsource some delivery work. The company said Saturday that if the unions reject the offer, it will push ahead with efforts in bankruptcy court to throw out the unions’ collective bargaining agreements. A union official warned that could lead to a strike. Hostess Brands filed for Chapter 11 protection in January, its second trip through bankruptcy court in less than a decade. A trial to decide the fate of the union contracts is scheduled to start Tuesday. Hostess wants to withdraw from some multi-employer pension plans, although it opened the door Saturday to possibly rejoining a few of the financially strongest plans. New hires would be covered by the same 401(k)-type retirement accounts used by nonunion and management employees. The company’s new CEO, Gregory F. Rayburn, said Hostess wants to cut annual pension contributions from $103 million to $25 million. Hostess also wants to change work rules that sometimes require two trucks instead of one, and to outsource deliveries to small stores. Ken Hall, general secretary-treasurer of the Teamsters, said the union would reject the company’s proposal and make a counteroffer Sunday. He said Hostess had provided only the barest details of how the new pensions program would work, and that employees already accepted big concessions in 2008. Workers represented by the Teamsters and the bakery and confectionary workers’ unions voted in February to authorize a strike, and Hall vowed Saturday that workers would walk off the job if the bankruptcy judge agrees to the company’s cuts. Rayburn said that if workers strike, the company will be forced to shut down and liquidate. Hostess makes sugary confections familiar to generations of Americans and it bakes Wonder bread, a leading white bread. Consumers increasingly have been buying other snacks, such as yogurt, and more wheat bread. White bread’s popularity has plunged – in 2000, it was eaten in 54 percent of all U.S. homes compared to 36 percent last year, according to consumer-marketing research firm NPD Group. Rayburn blamed Hostess’ problems on high pension and labor costs that led to insufficient investment in the company and new products. Rayburn said he doesn’t buy the healthy-diet explanation. “If that were the case and that was sort of the downfall, there wouldn’t be any chocolate companies out there either,” he said. “There’s a market for Twinkies and Ho Hos and Ding Dongs.” As part of its turnaround plan, Hostess wants to raise at least $400 million from current lenders or new investors or by selling brands. Rayburn said he has talked with a potential buyer of one of its small, regional brands. Before the company filed for bankruptcy protection, eight top executives got pay raises last year of up to 80 percent. This month, some agreed to take $1 a year until the company comes out of bankruptcy or Dec. 31, whichever comes first, while others gave up their pay raises.

Read the full article →

Weekend: Early Markets Drifting, Looking to Earnings, Spain, China for Cues

April 15, 2012

Weekend Developments ECB Asmussen: Europe has done enough on firewall, IMF members should increase contributions ECB Asmussen: Spain is repairing market confidence Spanish PM Rajoy seen …

Read the full article →

Mohamed A. El-Erian: What the Return of Market Volatility Tells Us

April 15, 2012

Four of last week’s five daily trading sessions saw the Dow move by more than a hundred points. The wide fluctuations of the index reminded investors of the unsettling market volatility of last year. In the process, and after a wonderfully strong first quarter, questions multiplied as to whether stocks would again be subject to a mid-year correction. By looking at the factors behind the recent volatility, including how it played out in different segments of the global markets, you will see that a big part of the answer depends on policymaking here and in Europe — a particularly uncomfortable situation for those who rightly believe that valuations and correlations should reflect underlying fundamentals. The renewed volatility in stocks was due to conflicting signs of additional central bank liquidity support, both in Europe and the US. By providing time (and hope) for economic and financial fundamentals to heal properly, such support is seen as critical to sustain the recent rally in risk assets. Yet, in listening to different voices here and across the Atlantic, equity investors come to different conclusions as to whether additional liquidity will indeed be forthcoming. Some officials seem committed to renewed unusual central bank activism. Others feel that this would only postpone the inevitable adjustments required on the part of governments, companies and individuals. And there seems to be no way, as yet, to get both groups on the same wavelength quickly. Market volatility has also been accentuated by competing narratives about the economic outlook. Last week, several companies’ quarterly earnings reports, led by Alcoa, were supportive. The problem is that they conflicted with the more worrisome macro data, including a Chinese growth slowdown (though 8.1 percent would be deemed great anywhere else in the world), the undershooting of a much-followed US sentiment indicator, and mounting signs of recession in Europe . These two narratives are, once more, finely balanced; and the tug of war will continue until one side asserts itself — either through a policy breakthrough or through a policy breakdown. No wonder so many analysts are warning that stock market volatility may be with us for a while. In understanding the implications, it is good to reflect on what other market segments are telling us — particularly global bonds where last week’s differentiation was both noteworthy and insightful. Compared to stocks, US Treasury bonds experienced less volatility (both in absolute and relative terms). This was partly due to a measurement issue: As only the bond market was open when the disappointing March employment number was released, yields reacted on that Friday while stocks had to wait for the following Monday. But even when adjusting for this by extending the comparison to two weeks, the contrast is still there. Investors in the Treasury segment appears less conflicted. This market segment signals a muted growth outlook, and one that may even trigger additional Federal Reserve intervention in the form of a new QE. Signals of a challenging outlook are much, much louder in European bond markets — and rightly so. Last week, yields on peripheral government securities went from flashing orange to again flashing red, with Spanish risk spreads near or at record levels (as measured by credit default swaps). All this speaks to the unsettling situation of markets that remain highly dependent on policymakers who, themselves, are stuck in the muddled middle: unable to deliver sustainable outcomes or to exit from their market interventions. This is the unfortunate reality of an “unusually uncertain” outlook, blunt policy tools, and a rather dysfunctional political context. Mohamed El-Erian is the co-CEO of Pimco, which oversees nearly $1.8 trillion in assets and runs the Pimco Total Return Fund, the largest bond fund in the world. Cross-posted from CNBC.com

Read the full article →