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Greece Denied Loans, For Now

June 20, 2011

LUXEMBOURG — Hours of talks between eurozone finance ministers on the imploding finances of Greece broke up early Monday morning without the ministers signing off on a vital installment of rescue loans needed to avoid bankruptcy next month. Greece will get the next euro12 billion of its existing euro110 billion bailout package in early July, but only if it manages to pass euro28 billion in new spending cuts and economic reforms by the end of the month, said Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg who also chairs the regular meetings of the 17 eurozone finance ministers. “We have to, of course, await this vote” by the Greek parliament, Juncker said as he left the meeting. However, Juncker said that as long as the parliament supported the new measures, he was certain that Greece would also get a second bailout – on top of the existing one – that will keep it afloat over the coming years as it works to restore its struggling economy. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said Sunday that his country was in talks for a new bailout similar in size to the first one. In a statement, the ministers said that the private sector would contribute to the new package of rescue loans on a voluntary basis. Banks and other private creditors will be asked to buy up new Greek bonds as old ones mature, thereby reducing the amount of money other eurozone countries and the International Monetary Fund will have to provide. “No pressure may be exerted on the private sector,” Juncker stressed, since any sign of coercion could force rating agencies to consider the bond-rollover as a partial default. Such a negative rating could take down Greek banks and further shake other struggling euro countries like Ireland and Portugal, economists have warned. Juncker said he planned to convene a special finance ministers meeting in the first days of July, where the remaining questions would be finalized. He said that because of the voluntary nature of the roll-over, it was too early to put a number on the contribution of the private sector. The meeting of the 17 eurozone nations came after a tumultuous week that saw rioting on the streets of Athens, a Greek Cabinet reshuffle and days of market turmoil that sent borrowing costs spiking. A default by Greece could cause ripples around the world, disrupting the global economy similarly to the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers in 2008. Just before the meeting broke up, the finance chiefs of the United States, Canada, Japan and the U.K. were updated on the discussions taking place in Luxembourg in a conference call limited to the Group of Seven rich nations, underlining the heightened level of concern over the small euro nation. A little over a year after its first bailout, Greece is trailing its financial goals. Without passing the new austerity measures, its budget deficit will remain above 10 percent of economic output this year – far from the promised 7.5 percent. The country’s debt is expected to reach 160 percent of gross domestic product by the end of 2011, while its economy continues to shrink. The harsh austerity measures and the bleak outlook for the depressed Greek economy and the resulting street protests are increasingly challenging the survival of Papandreou’s government. Opening a three-day parliamentary debate that will culminate in a confidence vote Tuesday, Papandreou blamed Greece’s bloated and inefficient state sector for bringing the country to its knees. He vowed deep changes with a fall referendum on the constitution that would make it easier to get rid of inept officials or workers.

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Report: Skinny Women Make More Money

June 19, 2011

For women constantly battling to drop a few pounds, a new study could be hard to swallow. From TIME : According to a study in the Journal of Applied Psychology, women who are “very thin” earn nearly $22,000 more than their “average weight counterparts.” The study was conducted by Timothy A. Judge from the University of Florida and Daniel M. Cable, from the London Business School, who examined the relationship between income and weight in men and women. The study, which included 23,939 participants, also finds that, while women are financially punished for any weight gain, very thin women receive the most significant drop in pay for the first few pounds of weight they put on. For American women who were below average weight, gaining 25 pounds produced an average salary decrease of $15,500. Once women reach an average weight, the report finds, further weight gain is penalized less, “presumably because the social preferences for a feminine body have already been violated.” Very thin men actually receive less than their average weight counterparts. They are rewarded for weight gain until they become obese, the study finds.

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Diane Francis: Americans and Greeks Are Tax Deadbeats

June 19, 2011

Nobody likes taxes, but the historical opposition to them in two nations could be ruinous for everyone. In Greece, the Ottomans made taxes and subjugation synonymous. Turks required Greeks to let Ottoman tax collectors slap their faces and grab their hair if they did not bow. They imposed the “tribute of children” requiring one in five male children to serve in the Sultan’s army. After liberation in 1821, Greece was governed by a string of illegitimate monarchs and dictatorships until it formed a Republic which is unwilling or unable to collect taxes. The result is rioting and rigamortis. Fresh private-sector pockets must be found to loot. The Europeans are on the hook for the eurozone’s poorly devised architecture which allowed Greece to cook its books and get too deeply in debt. But the United States is similar. The same anachronistic, taxation-as-subjugation mentality exists among many and may lead to default on its debts in August. After all, America is the country that threw the tea in the harbor and launched a bloody war of liberation over taxation. Seemingly heroic, the dirty little historical secret is that after the War of Independence the new country, and its 13 state governments, were unable to get anyone to pay taxes so they began swiping land from Indians and selling it to new arrivals. Then when they weren’t collecting payment for much of those lands, they had to steal some more, go to war or buy it. Until the last century, the US was anarchical, violent and unjust. Communities had to band together to provide police, road, education and other services of any kind. Anachronism So it’s symbolic that the anti-tax Tea Party Movement in the US, with its Revolutionary garb, three-cornered hats and muskets, aims to move the country forward by going back in time. Their electoral success and influence is wreaking havoc in Congress and impeding the needed compromise to control the deficit through spending cuts and tax hikes. This is not posturing but anarchy. Republican Tim Pawlenty states that public spending should total 18% of GDP, which would barely cover the Pentagon, Homeland Security, prisons and debt repayments, and all entitlements should be unconstitutional. On August 2 at 4 PM, the federal government must sign off on a deficit reduction plan in order to exceed debt ceilings or default. “There are 3 possibilities: a serious down payment solution in return for deferring issues; a last minute compromise to postpone the deadline or no deal which is unchartered territory,” said Jonathan Spector at the Conference of Montreal last week. That’s when the end of the economic world as we know it happens unless there is a deal. It is, without hyperbole, being dubbed the “Lehman” moment or the day the financial system worldwide seized up. “Nobody knows what would happen, but why in the world would you want to try to find out?” said David Walker, former US comptroller general now heading the fiscal watchdog group Comeback America Initiative told a newspaper. “At least we experimented with nuclear bombs before we dropped one.” By the way, the Americans are loopy about taxation: If Americans paid the same taxes on incomes, gasoline, alcohol and cigarettes as Canadians pay they would have zero deficit problem. American and Greek spoiled brats Essentially, the two are frighteningly similar. The Greeks, with their tear gas and Molotov cocktails, refuse to give up entitlements or pay for them through taxation and are simply a violent version of the havoc that the US Congress is wreaking. But the US anti-taxers do “violence” against people by allowing those making $250,000 a year or more to pay less tax, through Bush loopholes, than does a single parent mother in Baltimore or a soldier in Afghanistan. Without a doubt, the president and Congress will pull something out of the bag (this deficit deadline has been lifted 49 times in 20 years) and Germany’s Angela Merkel will make rich banks and bondholders take a haircut. But the damage is already done. The United States sputters in large measure because its politicians have lousy credit ratings which impedes job creation and activity and helps explain the lack of investment, credit or the inability to finance the building of infrastructure through private-public partnerships. American governments are lousy bets because they don’t or cannot collect enough taxes to pay their bills. The ability to reduce spending and tax its citizenry — providing they are informed and benefit from the measures — represents a competitive disadvantage for a nation. It is the mark of a country that cannot keep its fiscal house in order, does not care about repaying its debts and may be heading for collapse. Originally published at the Financial Post

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Stephen LeDrew: Munk Debates: The Clues Are in the Shoes!

June 19, 2011

Another chapter in what is now regarded as a national institution was written Friday night when Henry Kissinger and Fareed Zakaria of CNN fame took on Niall Ferguson, a well known business writer, and David Li, a Chinese bureaucrat, on the topic: the 21st century will belong to China. The audience was treated to all that good stuff of which great debates are made — knowledgable speakers, strong personalities, hot facts, humour, some personal shots — all great.The pre-debate count was 39 per cent pro, 40 per cent con, with 21 per cent undecided. After the game, the pro was 38 per cent and the con climbed to 62! Clearly Kissinger and Zakaria won the night, but the truth of the evening was that many are afraid that the 21st century might see a China dominating the world, and Li knew that, which is why he tried to soften the blow by claiming that the modern Chinese government is really Confucian — peace-loving and mild. Both Ferguson and Li argued that China will dominate (but don’t worry) while Kissinger spoke of cooperation. But enough of the debate — tens of thousands saw it or heard it and if you missed it, catch it on www.munkdebates.com . On to the important matter — the SHOES… they tell it all! Kissinger wore classic Oxfords — well-polished, thick soles and SOLID. Fareed had brand-new traditional black business shoes — the soles were untouched! Now there’s a man who takes his performance on the boards seriously. David Li sported what served him well-reasonable black leathers.But it was Ferguson who let his side down — hard to imagine an Englishman transplanted to Harvard with rather shabby, thin-soled shoes — not a spit of polish on them! What’s next — fisticuffs at Ascot! Good grief! Rudyard Griffiths simply shone as moderator, showing just the correct amount of deference to Kissinger, and thoughtfully and skillfully guiding the thoughts from one speaker to the next. Kissinger looked remarkably hale and hearty — much like Canada’s Senator David Smith in appearance and demeanor, exhibiting self-deprecating humour and thoroughly enjoying himself! Hats off to Peter Munk! A great Canadian institution has been created.

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Sen. Mark Warner Receives Big Contributions From JPMorgan During Deficit Talks

June 16, 2011

WASHINGTON — During the first three months of 2011 employees of JPMorgan Chase piled in campaign contributions to the campaign committee of Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), who has wound up at the center of the deficit debate over taxes and spending. From January to March, employees of JPMorgan and Highbridge Capital Management , the company’s hedge fund, contributed $87,600 to Warner’s campaign committee, according to campaign finance filings. These contributions, which came from a fundraiser for Warner hosted by JPMorgan, amounted to a quarter of all contributions Warner reported receiving in the first quarter of 2011. JPMorgan’s employees and the company’s political action committee have given a combined $194,400 to Warner over the course of his career, making the company the biggest donor to the senator’s campaign committee. In total, Warner received $151,286 from banks, investment firms and investment advisers in the first quarter of 2011. These contributions accounted for 43 percent of his total receipts during the same period. That’s already more than he raised from these groups over the past two years. Since late last year, Warner has been involved in conversations over how to reduce the long-term deficit as a member of the so-called “Gang of Six.” (The group has since shrunk to a party of five after Republican Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma dropped out.) Many of the issues arising in deficit negotiations are of special interest to JPMorgan, as well as to other banks and investment firms. These include discussions on closing tax loopholes, capital gains tax rates and a potential financial speculation tax. Warner’s office disputes that JPMorgan’s contributions have any bearing on the senator’s positions on the deficit negotiations. Responding to a question of whether contributions provide any special access, Warner spokesman Luke Albee gave HuffPost a one-word answer: “No.” Albee also stated that JPMorgan has never lobbied the senator on the issue of deficit negotiations. Albee labeled Warner as the “most active architect of the Wall Street reform bill,” along with former Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., the chair of the Senate Banking Committee. “[Sen. Warner] repeatedly took public positions at odds with Wall Street,” Albee said, citing the senator’s position on the Credit CARD Act, systemic risk, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and an amendment on mortgage cramdown proposed by Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.). According to his office, Warner also refused to accept campaign contributions from the financial industry during the discussions over the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill. Warner did step up for for the financial sector in one area last year: When the House voted to eliminate a tax loophole, the senator worked to exempt venture capital funds from the change. In 2010, Warner was one of a few senators who were instrumental in blocking an increase of the tax rate on carried interest, the percentage of income paid out to investment managers. At the time, James Surowiecki explained in the New Yorker how the carried interest taxation amounts to a multi-billion dollar loophole: In a typical private-equity fund, the managers get paid two per cent of assets as a regular fee, plus twenty per cent of the fund’s profits. They pay regular income tax on the two per cent. But on their share of the profits, which is called “carried interest,” they usually pay only long-term capital gains — even though they put up hardly any of the fund’s actual capital, most of which comes from outside investors. Last year, a provision attached to a House-passed tax extenders bill sought to tax most of the carried interest earned by venture capital, private equity and real estate investment fund managers as earned income, increasing the tax rate as high as 38.6 percent. When the bill moved to the Senate, Warner backed a change that would have exempted venture capital funds from the higher rate. Warner voiced his concern about the provision in a letter co-signed by three other Democrats and Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) which stated that the provision “could not occur at a worse time.” The letter echoed talking points from the National Venture Capital Association, including on statistic that said “venture-backed start-ups are adding over 4,000 jobs each month.” The carried interest provision was ultimately omitted from the bill . JPMorgan is currently the only major bank that lists carried interest as a lobbying issue for 2011. One explanation for the bank’s stake in preserving carried interest could be the January announcement of JPMorgan’s intent to create a new real estate fund. Known as Junius Real Estate Partners, it “will be wholly owned by J.P. Morgan Asset Management; however, the seven or eight team members will keep a ‘sizable portion of the profits’ in the form of carried interest.” The President’s deficit commission has proposed eliminating the capital gains tax rate — which currently affects carried interest — entirely. Capital gains and carried interest would both be taxed at the personal income rate, which the commission recommends lowering to counterbalance the elimination of loopholes like carried interest taxation and the special rates for capital gains. Warner has already stated that the “Gang of Six” will avoid tax hikes, which would likely include raising capital gains taxes to the personal income tax level. According to an earlier HuffPost report , Warner said the group will not propose actually raising tax rates.

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Between A Rock And A Hard Place

June 16, 2011

TORONTO — The BlackBerry’s inability to compete with the iPhone and smartphones running Google’s Android system shone through Thursday as the maker of the BlackBerry, Research In Motion Ltd., said its earnings and revenue fell. The Canadian company said it’s been hurt by product delays. Its stock fell nearly 15 percent in extended trading after the release of results for the latest quarter. RIM said it is cutting an unspecified number of jobs to reduce costs. It gave an outlook well below Wall Street’s expectations for the current quarter and the full year. “The existing portfolio of BlackBerry products has been in market for close to a year, and delivering new products has proven more challenging than anticipated,” RIM Co-CEO Jim Balsillie said on a conference call with analysts. The announcements are the latest signs of trouble for RIM. RIM dominated the corporate smartphone market and has sought to expand its appeal to consumers, but has recently had trouble with consumers because the phones aren’t perceived to be as sexy as Apple’s or Google’s. BlackBerrys are known for their security and reliability as email devices, but they haven’t kept pace with Apple’s iPhones or phones based on Google Inc.’s Android software when it comes to running third-party applications. Balsillie also acknowledged that the launch of the company’s tablet computer could have gone better. RIM got poor reviews on the Playbook. The company said it sold 500,000 of the tablets. “The PlayBook launch did not go as smoothly as we had planned,” he said. Co-CEO Mike Lazaridis made a rare appearance on the conference call as the two defended the business and their role as co-CEOs. RIM has an unusual leadership structure, where two executives, Balsillie and Lazaridis, serve as both co-CEOs and co-chairmen. Dissident shareholders are calling for RIM to separate the roles of CEO and chairman. Some believe RIM is following the same trajectory as Finish handset maker Nokia, which last month warned that its second-quarter sales and margins are expected to be much lower than anticipated because of the competition on devices in both the high- and low-end market. “We have a strong business,” Lazaridis said. “We have made major platform upgrades, and we are almost through this transition.” Lazaridis said RIM was already far along in developing its next-generation BlackBerrys when it realized that U.S. customers wanted higher performance, requiring the company to upgrade the chips used. That posed an engineering challenge and delayed products, he said. For the three months that ended May 28, RIM earned $695 million, or $1.33 per share. That’s down from $769 million, or $1.38 per share, a year ago. Revenue for the fiscal first quarter rose 16 percent to $4.9 billion from $4.2 billion. Analysts polled by FactSet expected earnings of $1.32 per share on revenue of $5.1 billion. RIM is facing fierce competition from Apple Inc.’s iPhone and smartphones that run Google Inc.’s Android operating system. Aurion Capital Management analyst Greg Taylor said the results reflect the fact that RIM doesn’t appear to have any new smartphones coming out soon. “Everyone wants to have the newest and greatest device, and they don’t have anything to sell right now,” Taylor said. “Their guidance shows they’re basically not expecting new smartphones this quarter.” For the current quarter, RIM forecast earnings of 75 cents to $1.05 per share, excluding items. Analysts are looking for far higher earnings of $1.36 per share. The company expects revenue of $4.2 billion to $4.8 billion, below analysts’ average expectation of nearly $5.3 billion RIM lowered its full-year earnings outlook sharply. It now expects earnings of $5.25 to $6 per share for fiscal 2012. In April, it had forecast $7.50 per share. RIM said earlier Thursday that Don Morrison, its chief operating officer, is going on medical leave. Balsillie said the job cuts are “an incredibly difficult decision” but said they do not constitute a restructuring of the company. “We have grown so much over the past years and we’ve done 14 or 15 acquisitions over the last bit. This is just a streamlining,” Balsillie said. “In no way shape or form would I call this a restructuring.” Lazaridis said they understand that recent times have been difficult for shareholders and employees, but said he’s confident things will turn around. Before the earnings RIM’s stock was already off 50 percent from its 52-week high. In April, the company slashed earnings and sales forecasts as it faces increased competition. In extended trading after the results came out, RIM’s stock fell $5.19, or 14.7 percent, to $30.14. In the regular session, the stock was up 16 cents to close at $35.33 before the earnings were issued.

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JPMorgan Chase Settles Claims It Used High-Pressure Tactics On Customers

June 15, 2011

(AP) WASHINGTON — JPMorgan Chase Bank has agreed to pay $2 million to settle federal regulators’ civil claims that it used high-pressure tactics and false statements to get auto loan customers to buy contracts that would suspend or cancel loan payments in case they lost their job. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Treasury Department agency that oversees national banks, announced the fine Wednesday for how the credit protection product was marketed in 2008 and 2009 by its Chase Auto Finance division. The bank neither admitted nor denied wrongdoing under the settlement agreement. In 2009, JPMorgan Chase Bank stopped selling the credit protection contracts, which carried a monthly fee, as well as a similar product for home mortgage borrowers. JPMorgan previously reimbursed affected customers for about $25 million.

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Pensions Set To Be Next Battleground For State Employees

June 15, 2011

First came the pay freezes and unpaid furloughs. Then came the higher contributions for health insurance. Now, in the most definitive sign yet that the era of generous compensation for public-sector employees is ending, workers in more than half the states face the prospect of paying more of their salary toward their pensions.

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Newt Gingrich Charity Paid Cash To Gingrich For-Profit Business

June 14, 2011

A non-profit charity founded by Newt Gingrich to promote freedom, faith and free enterprise also served as another avenue to promote Gingrich’s political views, and came dangerously close, some experts say, to crossing a bright line that is supposed to separate tax-exempt charitable work from both the political process and such profit-making enterprises as books and DVDs.

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15,000 Workers Out In Toronto, Montreal

June 14, 2011

THE CANADIAN PRESS — OTTAWA — The federal government appears to have ruled out back-to-work legislation for now in the labour dispute that is increasingly disrupting mail service at Canada Post. Acknowledging concern about the impact of the dispute on the economy, the parliamentary secretary to federal Labour Minister Lisa Raitt said Monday that the government is still hoping for a negotiated settlement. “The best solution is one that the parties come up with together, by themselves,” Conservative MP Kellie Leitch told the House. “The minister is monitoring the situation closely and will continue to provide the parties with the support and assistance required through the mediator.” But there was no sign the two sides were any closer to an agreement and, late Monday, the Canadian Union of Postal Workers identified Toronto and Montreal as its latest strike targets. About 15,000 CUPW members in the two cities were slated to walk off the job just before midnight for 24 hours in the union’s continuing series of rotating strikes. Meanwhile, spokesmen for the CUPW and Canada Post both stepped up their rhetoric in an effort to paint the other side as irresponsible. Canada Post spokesman Jon Hamilton accused the union of undermining the future viability of the service, saying the series of rotating strikes was chasing away long-time customers, possibly for good. Hamilton said the Crown corporation had lost $65 million in direct revenue since the work stoppages began June 3, including $35 million in cancelled contracts. “They are digging to the bone, they are pushing major customers to go to the competition,” he said in an interview. “There are spin-off losses, there are customers cancelling contracts, there are customers moving away and there are Canadians not putting mail on the general mail stream.” Hamilton warned some of the lost business may never return, undermining a service that already faces fierce competition from the private sector and the Internet. Union president Denis Lemelin accused Canada Post of trying to provoke a general strike with its decision to reduce postal service to three days a week in most cities starting this week. “Canada Post wants a full-scale strike and back-to-work legislation,” he told reporters at a morning news conference. Lemelin disputes that the work stoppages are severely damaging Canada Post, saying only 30 per cent of the country has been affected. He displayed two photographs purporting to show backlogs of mail ready to be processed. Canada Post shutting down for one day would have more impact on the country than the total of the union’s actions so far, said Lemelin, who described the tactic by Canada Post as a “partial lockout” designed to get Ottawa to legislate an end to the dispute. The union has offered to return to work under the conditions of the expired contract, but Canada Post has rejected the offer. Hamilton said the Crown corporation is not going to take on the costs the union is demanding for “short-term peace.” Lemelin has kept the option of a general strike open, but has given no sign that one is imminent. The union executive meets virtually daily to decide which location or locations will walk off the job next, or whether the time had come to escalate the strike action. Postal workers in Red Deer, Alta., spent the weekend on strike and employees in 10 other places walked off the job next. Strikes began late Sunday in Corner Brook, N.L.; Fredericton; Cape Breton, N.S.; the Quebec towns of Trois-Rivieres and Sherbrooke; Cornwall, Windsor and Niagara Falls in Ontario; Regina, and Nanaimo, B.C.. By Julian Beltrame, The Canadian Press

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Jason Alderman: Teach Your Kids About Interest Rates

June 13, 2011

One of the most valuable financial lessons you can share with your kids before they leave the nest is to explain what interest rates are and how they work. The important financial transactions they’ll conduct as adults will likely be affected in some way by interest rates, whether as a lender or a borrower. Here’s some background information that can help you guide those conversations: Interest rates for lenders. Anyone who has a savings account or owns government or business bonds is, in effect, lending money to those institutions and earning interest on the loan. Unless you buy tax-free municipal bonds, however, this interest income is probably taxable, so shop around for favorable rates to maximize your earnings and help offset inflation. Savings and interest-bearing checking accounts typically offer low rates and often charge fees for not maintaining minimum balances. You may do better by putting your money into a money-market deposit account or certificates of deposit. Compare bank CD, savings and checking account interest rates at Bankrate.com . To find credit unions for which you’re eligible, visit Credit Union National Association . Interest rates for borrowers . Interest rates have even more impact on you as a borrower, especially for large purchases. For example, most home mortgages are for 15 to 30 years, so reducing the interest rate by a point or two could save tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars over the life of the loan. Credit card rates may vary by 10 points or more, depending on your credit rating. Practical Money Skills for Life, a free personal financial management site run by my employer, Visa Inc., contains handy calculators that can help you compare total mortgage payments under different interest rates, as well as compare credit card balance payoff scenarios under different interest rates. Most borrower interest rates are expressed in terms of an annual percentage rate (APR). With credit cards, the issuer may charge a fixed APR, or change it as bank interest rates vary (“variable rate”). Each billing period, the company charges a fraction of the annual rate, called the “periodic rate,” on outstanding balances. With mortgages, the APR also factors in points, origination fees, mortgage insurance premiums and other fees. Two key interest rates affect the rate you’ll get from your bank or other lender: Discount rate: The rate the Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) charges banks for short-term loans. In a sluggish economy (like now), the Fed often lowers the discount rate to spur lower interest rates for borrowers, thereby boosting the economy. Prime rate : The rate banks charge their commercial customers with high credit ratings for short-term loans. Interest rates for credit cards and home equity loans/lines of credit are often tied to the prime rate (for example, “prime plus 5 percent.”) Your interest rate may also depend on several other factors, including: Whether the loan is “secured” (secured by collateral such as a house or car) or “unsecured” (not tied to collateral — like credit cards — so the lender relies on your promise to pay it back). Because they’re riskier for the lender, unsecured loans typically have higher interest rates. Your credit score — people with higher credit scores are deemed less risky and therefore are charged more favorable rates. Term length — long-term loan rates are usually higher than short-term rates, because the longer the loan, the greater the risk to the lender that you might default. Quality of asset being financed — houses tend to increase in value over time compared to cars, which typically lose value; thus, mortgage rates are often lower than car loan rates. New credit cards often come with an introductory (teaser) rate, which may increase after at least six months have passed if terms are clearly disclosed. Fixed vs. adjustable. Mortgage interest rates are either fixed for the life of the loan or adjustable at predetermined intervals for part or all of the loan period. They’re tied to an index such as the 10-Year Treasury Note. When rate indexes are relatively high, some people opt for an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM), which typically charges a lower initial rate. However, when rates climb due to inflation or other factors, monthly ARM payments can increase sharply, which is why many people prefer the more dependable fixed rate. It pays to think of yourself as both a lender and a borrower. Remember, if you’re earning 1 percent on savings but shelling out 18 percent on credit card balances, you’re actually losing 17 percent — plus paying taxes on the earnings. Bottom line: Many factors in setting interest rates are beyond our individual control; however, teach your kids that they can control their own credit score, which can have a tremendous impact — good or bad — on interest rates. There are many good resources for learning more about what you can do to protect or repair your credit scores, including MyFICO.com’s Credit Education Center , the Federal Trade Commission’s Credit & Loans Page , and What’s My Score , a financial literacy program run by my employer, Visa Inc., which also features a free FICO Score Estimator that can help you approximate your score. This article is intended to provide general information and should not be considered legal, tax or financial advice. It’s always a good idea to consult a legal, tax or financial adviser for specific information on how certain laws apply to you and about your individual financial situation. To Follow Jason Alderman on Twitter: http://twitter.com/PracticalMoney

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Art Brodsky: Banality of Capitulation: Why Silicon Valley’s Support for AT&T Is Less Than Meets the Eye

June 10, 2011

Over the last couple of days, a remarkable array of speakers told their stories at the Personal Democracy Forum conference in New York. Alaa Abd Al Fattah told stories about being in Tahrir Square in Cairo, as the decades-long effort to oust a dictator reached its fruition and began that period of the Arab Spring. Riadh Guerfali from Tunisia also had stories to tell about posting material online that the dictatorial regime of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali didn’t like. Marko Rakar, a Croat, posted secret government information online (ironically, given the Wikileaks scenario, hosted in the U.S.) which showed corruption and earned him chats with the Croatian police. All persevered because they believed in principles and were able to face down unimaginable odds. But in the world of corporate America, there is a force bigger, more persistent and more powerful than even that of dictators. It uses its connections and to make certain that even large, strong and vital companies bend to its will, much as it uses donations to influence the behavior of smaller nonprofit groups. At first glance, the news earlier this week from Silicon Valley had all the makings of a political bombshell — some of the biggest names in a region supposedly known for backing competition and innovation sent a letter to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) backing AT&T’s takeover of T-Mobile, a transaction that would reduce competition and stifle innovation. When patriots all over the world are risking their lives, how in the U.S. corporate world, could companies like Facebook and Oracle and leading venture capitalists like Kleiner Perkins or Sequoia Capital simply walk away from those guiding principles that have come to symbolize the technology sector? One letter, organized by Microsoft, was signed (with corporate logos only) by Microsoft, Avaya, Brocade, Facebook, Oracle, Qualcomm, RIM and Yahoo. The VCs sent separate letters. At second glance, however, the view is much different. Call it the banality of capitulation. There is no stirring defense of competition or innovation which made Silicon Valley what it is today. There is only the reality of interlocking financial relationships controlled by AT&T. Jessie J has it wrong: It is about the money, money, money. It is about the ka-ching, ka-ching. Take the fabled venture capital firms of Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, and Sequoia Capital. The two of those companies are responsible for much of what is known as Silicon Valley and for fueling the growth in the tech and Internet sectors. Yet they signed the letter for AT&T. Perhaps this headline from a story last fall will shed some light on things: “AT&T will provide tens of millions to app developers; working with Kleiner and Sequoia”. AT&T is prepared to spend its millions finding and developing mobile apps. And guess who will be its guide to the app world? “AT&T is partnering with venture-capital firms Sequoia Capital and Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, early backers of Google, for its app-development venture. The firms will help AT&T identify promising application developers and may invest in companies that emerge through the process,” the story said. So having a nice working relationship with AT&T and the possibility of getting involved with millions in investments – not such a bad deal. These are investors, after all. Of course, if AT&T succeeds in getting rid of T-Mobile, then AT&T will have a tighter control over mobile apps, and then the investors would make more money. In that light, it makes perfect sense. The companies from the Valley which signed the letter also have their own connections to AT&T. Yahoo! has been in AT&T’s thrall for ages, largely over ad revenue. Yahoo is the front end for AT&T’s DSL service and will be the default search engine for AT&T’s cellphone portal (although not for iPhones). “Our customers want mobile search to be convenient and intuitive, and Yahoo oneSearch is an important step for us in delivering that level of experience to them,” said Michael Bowling, AT&T’s VP of converged services, said in a statement quoted in an Information Week story. Oracle and Avaya (which traces its heritage back to the Western Electric manufacturing arm of the old AT&T Bell System) not a couple of months ago announced a new partnership: “AT&T Government Solutions together with Oracle and Avaya, announced the introduction of integrated and customizable telework technology solutions for federal agencies seeking to develop and expand telework options for their employees.” AT&T also sells a human-resources solution, called AT&T Workforce Delivered which is, the web site informs, ” powered by Oracle .” Are we seeing a pattern here? Brocade, a networking company, is a technology partner of Oracle’s. Oracle has danced around a purchase of Brocade for a couple of years. Why would Qualcomm sign a letter to help AT&T get rid of T-Mobile? There are 1.925 billion reasons. That’s the amount of money AT&T want to spend to buy prime spectrum from Qualcomm in a deal announced last December and currently under review by the Federal Communications Commission. RIM makes Blackberries. AT&T sells lots of them (although not as many as Sprint, the main opponent of the takeover). RIM probably doesn’t want to jeopardize a good customer. Microsoft, the company, which organized the company letter on the merger, has its own angle. This headline sums things up nicely: “Microsoft Anoints AT&T as Preferred Windows Phone 7 Carrier.” Yes, AT&T will be the anointed one for Microsoft’s new mobile operating system. It is already a large carrier of Windows phones. It was the exclusive distributor when the new system came out. The fact that these companies have business relationships with AT&T should not be seen as an excuse for them to take a position that will hurt millions of consumers while changing the landscape of the wireless business by consolidating control into two companies. Oracle and Microsoft, companies that thrive on closed systems, are big enough so that they have some free will in the matter. They chose to sell out consumers on this one. And what about Facebook? Why would they sign a letter to the FCC to back closing down a major wireless company? Who knows? It could be their new general counsel, Ted Ullyot, who worked in the George W. Bush White House. AT&T’s chief lobbyist, James Cicconi, is a veteran of the Bush I days. Then again, as anyone who uses Facebook and has tried to figure out its privacy policies, or been put off by its “creepy” facial recognition software knows, Facebook doesn’t care what other people think, even the millions of people who use it. All the letter means is that the biggest companies are no more immune to AT&T’s power than are much smaller groups and organizations which also benefit from AT&T’s largesse. There’s only one power in that has the capability to be bigger than AT&T, and it’s the one which broke up AT&T in the first place. This the part Jessie J was right about: “Seems like everybody has a price. I wonder how they sleep at night. When the sale comes first, and the truth comes second… ”

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United Airlines Bringing 1,300 Jobs To Chicago

June 10, 2011

CHICAGO — Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and the head of United Airlines say 1,300 more jobs are coming to downtown Chicago. They announced the jobs Friday at the airline’s offices in Chicago’s Willis Tower. United CEO Jeff Smisek says the jobs are moving to Chicago from around the airlines’ system. United and Continental recently merged to create the aviation behemoth headquartered in Chicago. Smisek says the operations and technology jobs were largely already filled because people are moving to Illinois. He says the new jobs will relocate by the end of next year. That’ll bring the number of United jobs in downtown Chicago to a little more than 4,000.

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Regulations For Untaxed Swiss Bank Accounts In The Works

June 10, 2011

ZURICH (Catherine Bosley) – Swiss and U.S. authorities have held informal exploratory talks that touched on regularizing untaxed money held by wealthy Americans in secret Alpine accounts, a spokesman for a finance ministry office said. U.S. officials have said they are investigating other banks after UBS paid $780 million in 2009 to settle tax evasion charges. In an article on June 9, sources told Reuters the U.S. and Switzerland were in advanced talks on a multibillion dollar deal that would let several Swiss and European banks join a common settlement to avoid potential U.S. prosecution. The announcement of a settlement could come as early as July, the sources said. Mario Tuor, spokesman for the State Secretariat for International Financial Matters (SIF), said on Friday the two sides had exchanged ideas but that he could not confirm the July date, whether the two sides were eyeing a multi-bank solution, or any other details mentioned in the article. “There were several sets of talks, one of which was on the sidelines of the IMF’s spring meeting and was about the FATCA, though ideas were also exchanged about finding a solution for the past,” he said. The Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) is a U.S. bill adopted in March 2010 that forces non-U.S. banks to automatically share a vast amount of information regarding the bank dealings of their U.S. clients. With state coffers strained by the financial crisis, Switzerland has come into the crosshairs of tax authorities in Italy, Britain and Germany, as well as the U.S., which all suspect their citizens of stashing money in Swiss accounts to avoid taxes. In 2009 Berne agreed to hand over to Washington bank data relating to 4,450 clients of UBS, piercing a hole in Swiss bank secrecy laws. The U.S. Department of Justice continues to go aggressively after U.S. citizens who have hidden assets abroad, with a senior U.S. Internal Revenue Service figure saying this month the authority was about to probe at least one bank. (Editing by David Hulmes) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Edward Jackson: Multipolarity: It’s Already Here

June 8, 2011

Understand. Plan. Act. That’s what we should do when something big and new comes along. That’s what we need to do about the Chinese yuan. Why? Because it’s going to become an international currency within the next five to 10 years, maybe sooner. Institutions and individuals around the world will be able to buy the yuan, also called the renminbi, and trade it on currency markets. The Chinese will do this for two reasons: First, this internationalization process will reduce China’s exposure to too many non-performing U.S. assets, now held in the form of stocks, bonds and treasury bills. Recent unemployment figures suggest that America’s recovery is going to be a long and uncertain one. Second, having an international currency positions the Chinese to consolidate their growing economic strength around the world — and take it to the next level. What will that next level be? In a recent report entitled ” Multipolarity: The New Global Economy “, a forecasting group at the World Bank has predicted that, by 2025, the global economy will replace the U.S. dollar as the sole international currency with a new, multi- currency system comprising three major components: the buck, the euro and the yuan — or, as my wife calls them, “our new four letter words!” There’s a lot more in the report. “By 2025,” the World Bank team writes, “six major emerging economies — Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, and the Russian Federation–will collectively account for more than half of all global growth.” “Emerging” is really a misnomer. These economies exercise their expanding power every day on every continent in every sector, from oil and gas to manufacturing to infrastructure. Let’s just call them new economic powers. The only thing “emerging” about them is how powerful they could become. Indeed, look at what these countries have already achieved: “Emerging and developing countries now hold two-thirds of all official foreign exchange reserves,” the World Bank study confirms . A decade ago, the advanced economies held two-thirds of all reserves. Reversals don’t come any more complete than that. In other words, the report tells us, first, multipolarity is already here. Second, it will only gain greater momentum. Note, though, that the study hasn’t projected beyond 15 years out. How strong could China’s economic power be in, for example, 2050? Can you say “global economic hegemony?” These scenarios raise obvious and sobering questions about the economic future of our children and grandchildren. How much of Canada’s resources — our oil, gas, strategic minerals, forests, food and water — are we willing to sell to China and the other new powers? How many good jobs will we be able to negotiate? How, ultimately, will we sustain our households and communities? For defensive reasons alone, we should start buying yuan. It will give us a window on this new world. It will get our heads in the new game. Investing in yuan could also give us some say in how China itself performs — socially, environmentally, in terms of labour and human rights — as it rides the escalator of economic ascendance to the top. We should invest in yuan — but we can’t. We’ll only be able to buy it when the Chinese Politburo says we can . In the meantime, however, there’s important work to do. First, taking a page from the new powers’ own approach, our governments should invest in one or two world-class Canadian multinationals in each strategic sector of our economy. With the backing of both the state and the market, and deploying leading-edge technology, these companies would have the scale and resilience to compete in the multipolar world. (Yes, the original planners–not the later managers–of Nortel were right.) Second, we should lever our capital pools for both offensive and defensive purposes. Again, as the new powers do, we should use our ‘sovereign wealth funds’ — the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and Quebec’s Caisse de dépôt et placement — to invest in foreign securities as sources of economic intelligence and some influence on the behaviour of new-power companies. At the same time, these funds should allocate capital to major Canadian companies that create and sustain good jobs for Canadians in the face of fierce competition. And, third, governments should give serious, preferential tax treatment to companies that maximize these jobs and minimize layoffs. Advocates for such policies would be easily found in the caucus and allied organizations of the New Democratic Party, sections of the Liberal and Green parties, and some red Tory networks. What about the Conservatives? Without doubt, this approach would be too ‘big government’ for them. But, in his quiet, private moments, Stephen Harper surely knows that Canada’s market forces alone are no match for the new powers. The state must be fully engaged. Something big and new has, in fact, come along. Multipolarity is here. What we do about it is, so far, still up to us. Understand. Plan. Act. Now, not later.

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Report: Businesses Can’t Just Be ‘Pawns’ In Education Reform

June 8, 2011

America’s business leaders say they want to fix education, but they don’t know how to do so effectively. As a result, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce commissioned a report that instructs business leaders on the best practices for private-public partnerships in education, according to co-author Whitney Downs, an education policy research assistant at the American Enterprise Institute. In November, she and Rick Hess , AEI’s director of education policy, sought to find out what they should do. They concluded that businesses need to be more forceful and not merely “pawns” if they want to change schools for the better, according to the report, released Wednesday and titled “Partnership Is a Two-Way Street: What It Takes for Business to Help Drive School Reform.” “Partnership does not mean being a pawn of the school district,” Downs told The Huffington Post. “It means putting your foot down when you want to meet certain end goals.” The report comes as business leaders, Downs said, realize that a faulty education system will lead to a problematic workforce down the line. Underperforming schools yield underperforming employees. With flashy education grants made by magnates such as Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates , business people seek to involve themselves in education more and more, but become frustrated as they don’t necessarily see the results they desire. “The business community can no longer afford to allow American education to continue as is,” Cheryl Oldham, vice president of the Institute for a Competitive Workforce at the US Chamber of Commerce, said in a press release. “Business engagement in education reform needs to be more robust than just donating money and sponsoring scholarships.” Diane Ravitch, an education historian who formerly served as assistant U.S. secretary of education and has often criticized business involvement in education, lauded the possibilities of such partnerships. “Many states are slashing public education budgets, laying off thousands of teachers, closing school libraries, and eliminating the arts. Other nations don’t do this,” she told HuffPost after seeing the report. “Business could play a valuable role by speaking up on behalf of our nation’s public schools.” She cautioned an overreliance on numbers. “Having survived the economic debacle of 2008, business leaders should know enough not to be misled by data, not to be impressed by systems where more students graduate but need remediation in college and are likely to drop out,” she saod, adding that businesses should support “high-quality education” that encourages “creativity, imagination, and ingenuity.” There are no silver bullets for creating partnerships, Downs stressed. “Often times, businesses tend to give scholarships or sprinkle extra dollars or supplies,” she said. “Those serious about systemically changing the state of American education need to face up to the fact that those methods aren’t going to get the job done. But we’re not trying to say that there’s a specific strategy for every problem you encounter.” A universal tip, she added, is that results cannot be achieved without taking the time to build relationships and obtain knowledge about local schools. The report examines successful partnerships in Austin, Massachusetts and Nashville and relies largely on interviews with the stakeholders in those areas. As a “critical customer,” the report says, Austin’s Chamber of Commerce enhanced schools, giving them more data tools. The report points to an increased number of students from the area enrolling in college as a result. In Nashville, 117 school-business partnerships and six partnership councils, the report asserts, resulted in an increased graduation rate, a decreasing suspension rate, and better standing under No Child Left Behind. The Massachusetts Business Alliance for Education helped companies craft policy and adapt the national Common Core curriculum, which Downs said resulted in the state’s winning federal Race to the Top dollars. As states struggle to measure teacher effectiveness, Downs added, business models can be useful to education. “Just by bringing a management mindset, that they’ll measure outputs and not just inputs,” she said, “that’s something that our education system hasn’t done very well.”

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Is Increased Debt Inflating The Self-Esteem Of Recent Grads?

June 7, 2011

NEW YORK — When Kate Rollins went further into debt in order to postpone the repayment of her existing student loans, she knew she was in trouble. Two years ago, Rollins, now 24, graduated from San Diego State University with a degree in political science. Though she owes $50,000 in undergraduate student loan debt, as well as another $2,400 split between two credit cards, she recently started a full-time certificate program in marketing at a local community college. Being enrolled in school allows her the relative freedom of loan deferment — a stopgap measure that is nothing if not a temporary solution. Rollins, who earns about $1,000 per month working part-time as a cashier at Radio Shack, said she ran up her credit card debt “just buying food, and low-budget food at that — things like ramen and frozen fruits vegetables from Costco. I just couldn’t keep up.” Rollins is hardly alone in her struggle to pay down large quantities of debt . According to Mark Kantrowitz, a financial aid expert who publishes Fastweb.com and Finaid.org , the average graduate finishes school with about $25,000. Many of them are encountering an unanticipated struggle when it comes time to finally start paying them off. But does debt — even when it’s assumed in service of educational goals — wind up negatively impacting a young person’s self-esteem? Yes and no, according to a new study released yesterday by Rachel E. Dwyer, an assistant professor of sociology at Ohio State University. “Debt can be a good thing for young people — it can help them finance goals they couldn’t otherwise, like a college education,” said Dwyer, whose findings appear in the latest issue of Social Science Research , an academic journal. Many people who participated in her study viewed debt, even large amounts of it, as an investment in their future selves, Dwyer said. After sampling more than 3,000 young people between the ages of 18 and 34, she found that many people under the age of 27 were positively impacted by debt; her data showed that both higher levels of credit card and college loan debt equated to higher rates of self-worth. Additionally, these respondents reported feeling not only in control of their lives, but uniquely primed to achieve their goals. But apparently such optimism has its limits. Specifically, those 28 and older began showing signs of stress when it came time to pay back the money they took on in their youth. “It may be that the positive effects are closer to when people take on the debt and at the time think it was a good reason,” reasoned Dwyer. Among the people she sampled, the average educational debt was $6,600, while credit card debt averaged $950. “Those positive effects may wear off as the payment schedule starts to intensify.” Whether it carries positive effects with it or not, other scholars have wondered when debt became not only accepted, but a normalized part of everyday life. “How did American culture shift to the point where everyone is totally fine with carrying such large amounts of debt?” asked Michelle Barnhart, an assistant professor of marketing at Oregon State University. Earlier this spring, she completed a study that examined how Americans became burdened with five-figure credit card bills and “mortgage payments up to their eyeballs.” Barnhart noted that 20-somethings had an especially hard time integrating credit cards into the routine of normal, everyday life — for instance, balancing the need to establish decent credit ratings while also learning to use them responsibly. Younger respondents also separated debt into two distinct categories: good debt versus bad debt. “Good debt was for things seen as investments — school loans, mortgages. Even credit card debt you were using to build your credit score could be seen as good debt,” said Barnhart. “But bad debt was seen as overspending on your credit card, whether for clothes or charging last night’s dinner.” Yet Rollins has trouble thinking of the money she owes as “good” debt. While she has her degree, the subsequent job offerings have been less than robust, and a persistent cloud of debt looms above all else. Rollins is aiming to pay off her credit cards before tackling her student loans. Lately, she’s only been able to afford he minimum monthly payment, she said. “My spending habits are a lot different now,” said Rollins, who has turned down multiple offers for additional credit cards. Dreams of graduate school are indefinitely delayed as well. “I touched the pan and got burned and I’m not going back for more. I’ve finally learned my lesson.”

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Former Madoff Employee Admits To Falsifying Records

June 6, 2011

NEW YORK (Grant McCool) – A former employee at convicted financier Bernard Madoff’s firm admitted to adding fake employees to the payroll, part of a plea deal on Monday to bank fraud and other charges. The former payroll manager, Eric Lipkin, told U.S. District Judge Laura Taylor Swain in New York that in 22 years of employment in the investment advisory arm of Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC, he conspired with others to falsify records and deceive authorities. Madoff, 73, and eight others have been criminally charged with running a multibillion-dollar Ponzi scheme that collapsed in December 2008, shaking up regulators who missed years of warning signs of the fraud. Madoff is serving a 150-year prison sentence after pleading guilty in March 2009 for what is considered the biggest investment fraud in history. A Ponzi scheme is one in which early investors are paid with the money of new clients. Lipkin told the judge that from at least 1986, “I created false payroll records.” As one example, he said that in 2008 he was instructed by the firm’s operations manager, Daniel Bonventre, to put Bonventre’s son on the payroll even though he did not work at the firm. Bonventre has also been charged and is free on bail pending trial. Under Lipkin’s plea agreement, he will cooperating with the office of the Manhattan U.S. Attorney and the FBI in its investigation of the Madoff fraud. Lipkin, 37, also said in Manhattan federal court that he created false reports to be sent to the Depository Trust Co (now called the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp) clearing house for buyers and sellers of securities. “I knew these documents were false because they were created by me,” said Lipkin, who was released on bail of $2.5 million after the plea proceeding. Lipkin said the false reports were given to auditors to mislead them. Lipkin pled guilty to charges of conspiracy and falsifying books and records to commit bank fraud. The most serious charge of bank fraud carries a maximum possible 30-year prison sentence. The case is USA v O’Hara et al, U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, No. 10-228. (Editing by Gerald E. McCormick) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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What Millionaires Did With Their Bush Tax Cuts: ‘I Built A Dance Floor In My House’

June 6, 2011

WASHINGTON — Paul Egerman isn’t certain how many millions he’s saved from the tax cuts enacted during the George W. Bush administration in the early 2000s and extended by President Barack Obama in December of last year. “I do not know how much I’ve saved over 10 years but I’m sure it is several million dollars — probably in excess of $10 million,” said Egerman, founder of a medical transcription company called eScription. And what, HuffPost asked, have you done with all that cash? “I’ve kept it,” he said. “I have not done anything with that money.” Egerman is part of a gang of self-described Patriotic Millionaires who wish the federal government would help itself to more of their money to address its big budget deficits. Nearly 200 millionaires have signed a letter asking congressional Republicans to consider healing budget gaps with increased revenue — in particular, higher taxes on millionaires — instead of just reduced spending. The group is coordinated by the Agenda Project , a New York think tank, and Wealth for the Common Good, a network of business leaders and wealthy people that promotes “fair and adequate taxation” to support the economy. Other millionaires on a conference call Monday morning said they had more fun with their extra money than Egerman did. “I probably traveled a little bit more than I otherwise would have,” said Frank Patitucci, CEO of NuCompass Mobility Services , a company that offers relocation management services. “I got a bigger boat than I used to have,” said Dennis Mehiel, the founder and chairman of cardboard box manufacturer U.S. Corrugated, Inc. He lamented that the construction of his 150-foot sloop didn’t create any jobs for American workers. “The problem is, it was built in Italy.” Dal LaMagna, founder of Tweezerman, said he used his extra money to help the local economy in by adding stuff to his house in the Pacific Northwest. “I just started creating jobs myself. I built a dance floor in my house — which I really didn’t need,” LaMagna said, adding that he also put in a parking lot. “I just became a Dal LaMagna economic stimulus package in Poulsbo, Washington.” HuffPost readers: Got tons of money? More than you need? Tell us what you do with it — email arthur@huffingtonpost.com . Please include your phone number if you’re willing to do an interview. The tax cuts enacted in 2001 and 2003 overwhelmingly benefited the richest 1 percent of taxpayers, according to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center , a joint project of the Brookings Institution and the Urban Institute. The progressive Center on Budget and Policy Priorities estimated in 2009 that the tax cuts “added about $1.7 trillion to deficits between 2001 and 2008.” The tax cuts would have expired in January, but President Obama broke a campaign promise and struck a deal with congressional Republicans that reauthorized the cuts for two more years in exchange for one year of extended unemployment benefits, among other things. Tuesday, June 7, is the 10th anniversary of the tax cuts. Extending them further would result in an extra $68,079 for the average member of the richest one percent of taxpayers in 2013, according to estimates by progressive advocacy group Citizens for Tax Justice . “If they are fully extended, they will cost five-and-a-half trillion dollars over the coming decade,” said CTJ President Bob McIntyre on the conference call.

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Martin Ford: Could Fast Food Robots Steal McJobs?

June 5, 2011

Millions of people hold low-wage, often part-time jobs in the fast food industry. Historically, low wages, few benefits and a high turnover rate have helped to make fast food openings relatively abundant. These jobs, together with other low-skill positions in retail, provide a kind of safety net for workers with few other options. In the current economic environment, these jobs are, of course, much harder to get. McDonald’s recent high-profile initiative to hire 50,000 new workers resulted in over a million applications — numbers that give McDonald’s a lower acceptance rate than Harvard. What about the future? Most forecasts assume that the fast food industry will continue to be a significant job creator. The Bureau of Labor Statistics ranks food preparation as one of the top four fastest-growing occupations , and that trend is expected to continue at least through 2018. Is it possible that these projections miss the impact of technology? Could these jobs begin to disappear? For some insight into what could potentially happen, consider this article from the New York Times about the Kura sushi chain in Japan: Efficiency is paramount at Kura: absent are the traditional sushi chefs and their painstaking attention to detail. In their place are sushi-making robots and an emphasis on efficiency. Absent, too, are flocks of waiters. They have been largely replaced by conveyors belts that carry sushi to diners and remote managers who monitor Kura’s 262 restaurants from three control centers across Japan. (“We see gaps of over a meter between your sushi plates — please fix,” a manager said recently by telephone to a Kura restaurant 10 miles away.) Absent, too, are the exorbitant prices of conventional sushi restaurants. At a Kura, a sushi plate goes for 100 yen, or about $1.22. Such measures are helping Kura stay afloat even though the country’s once-profligate diners have tightened their belts in response to two decades of little economic growth and stagnant wages. McDonald’s has already announced plans to install touch-screen ordering systems in over 7000 European locations. To me, it is not difficult to imagine many of the ideas being utilized at Kura eventually being deployed throughout the fast food and beverage industries. If automated preparation and off-site store management work for sushi, then why not for burgers or lattes? One important thing to take away from the sushi story is the way in which a stagnant economy can be a driving force behind increased automation. Almost any type of restaurant food is a discretionary purchase: if the price is too high, people can and will refuse to buy. That presents a real problem if — as is the case now — businesses are seeing significant increases in the price of the food commodities they must purchase. For a business that is squeezed between rising input prices and tepid demand, investment in labor-saving technology can represent one of the few viable paths to continued profitability. Increased automation in fast food and beverage providers is likely to someday offer increased convenience, speed, and ordering accuracy. Robotic food preparation could also be viewed as more hygienic as fewer workers come into contact with food. And of course, price will ultimately be the determining factor. As one Kura sushi customer quoted by The Times notes: “It’s such a bargain at 100 yen,” … “A real sushi restaurant?” he said. “I hardly go anymore.” If jobs in the fast food industry start to disappear, or even if the rate of job growth slows significantly, the implications for the workers that depend on these jobs of last resort will be dire. There may be few other alternatives for workers at that skill level, especially since other low-wage retail jobs may be similarly threatened . Martin Ford is the author of The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future (available from Amazon or as a PDF download ) and has a blog at econfuture.wordpress.com .

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Bob Beaty: Would You Pay For It?

June 2, 2011

One of the characteristics of toiling in obscurity is the limited shelf life. No sentient being, or company for that matter, can stand anonymity for long. Fortunately, there are three solutions; pray for a miracle, change the perception or shuffle off this mortal coil. In the case of most SmallCap companies, the equivalent of the third eventuality would be to shut the doors. Let’s deal with door number two — change the perception — as the most viable, since miracles only happen infrequently and, dare I say, in obscurity. Other than a fraternity party I attended many years ago in Ithaca, New York, but I digress. Let’s talk fee-based research. Rough segue, but an extremely interesting topic. If you were/are the CEO of a SmallCap company whose stock couldn’t get attention if you yelled ‘open bar’ at an investor conference in Vegas, then you need to familiarize yourself with the genre. As do investors. Once you understand how it works, it amazes me that anyone depends at all on the affectations and frequent conflicts of interest of ‘traditional’ investment dealer research. Begin with the premise that your corporate story or vision is worth telling, which doesn’t include you 40-something game developers eating hot pockets in mom’s basement. The hell of it is, there are some great stories out there: Lifesaving biotech stories, the next Microsoft (or Apple) or a killer electronic device or cost-saving service. If you can objectively conclude the world needs to know, or alternatively hire someone to tell you it has legs, it probably should gain exposure. And inform potential investors. But how do you get noticed? Fee-based research is a viable arrow in the overall IR quiver. I gained some good insight chatting to independent analyst Patrick Murphy, CFA, and principal of www.MurphyAnalytics.com. Some interesting observations: • SmallCaps tend to commission fee-based research when times for the company are good and want those facts disseminated to investors • Disclosures on the report are key. Investors must satisfy themselves that the analyst’s compensation is fully disclosed as well as their ethics • CFA’s are held to very high standards and having that designation ups the independence and credibility of the work • No matter how informational and conflict-free the report, it must be used a one of many research tools. Never make an investment decision based on one report • If a report is too promotional or draws unrealistic conclusions and/or price targets, it should likely be ignored • The majority of fee-based research shops do not take shares as compensation, thereby negating a vested or conflicted interest in the market performance of the shares • The research should work for the investor, not the company In the majority of cases, the company does not see — if the report contains one — the analyst’s price target or rating until publication. The reason is to maintain the independence of the report and not allow the company to exert any influence on the projected price. The company always has the right to spike the report if it feels there are problems, but since investors will never know, the point is moot. The main enigma for investors is that fee-based research is likely going to be positive. A company facing bankruptcy or some other calamity is not going to bring attention to it. Plus, it likely doesn’t have the money to pay for a report. I don’t see this issue as a problem, based on the fact that if these reports are used first and foremost as information sources, the investor takeaway is an in-depth history of the company, good rundown of the financials, comparison to the metrics of peers and a sense of future direction. Analysts, especially those with CFA designations, are not in the habit of making stuff up. The numbers are the numbers and all those used for the report are already freely available to the public. Investors should never confuse a positive tone with a flattering or pandering one; alarm bells should sound if the tenor of the report is overtly gushy. Compared to Wall Street, or traditional investment sealer research, fee-based reports give — or should — a clear picture of all compensation. ‘Traditional’ research rarely does this and while I draw no conclusions as to why, wouldn’t an investor just rather know? All a reputable fee-based analyst receives is a disclosed cash payment. No soft dollar arrangements, no investment banking relationships and no axe to grind. For my money, or rather a SmallCap company’s money, that seems a good deal for all involved.

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Is Microsoft’s Radical Windows Makeover Actually Still Timid?

June 2, 2011

Seventeen months after CEO Steve Ballmer unveiled a Windows slate that never made it to market, Microsoft, the king of the desktop, is taking another stab at tablets. But the company still isn’t going all in, and some experts say this could prove to be a major mistake. Microsoft took the wraps off of Windows 8 , the company’s first attempt to re-imagine its computer operating system for tablets, at the All Things Digital D9 conference on Wednesday. There’s a lot riding on the radical makeover of Microsoft’s Windows software, a major moneymaker that has attracted more than a billion users, earns Microsoft over $17 billion a year and runs on 90 percent of PCs. Lately, however, Microsoft’s success in the PC market has been overshadowed by its failure to deliver a tablet offering, while rivals Apple and Google both have their own slates available, or to challenge the dominance of Apple’s iPad, which claims approximately 74 percent of the tablet market. But while many had expected Microsoft to finally unveil a software specifically for slates, Windows 8 isn’t just for tablets. Instead, the operating system, which has undergone its most radical reinvention in over a decade, is meant to power both tablets and PCs. Windows 8 will work “with or without a keyboard and mouse on a broad range of screen sizes and pixel densities, from small slates to laptops, desktops, all-in-ones, and even classroom-sized displays,” Microsoft said in a press release. With Windows 8, Microsoft looks like it’s hedging its bets, delivering a product that can work on both a touchscreen tablet and laptop operating system. Whereas Apple and Google have each developed platforms made especially for tablets, Microsoft bets that one operating system can do it all, an assumption many are calling into question. “The way they positioned it, tablets are almost an afterthought,” said Sarah Rotman Epps, an analyst with the research firm Forrester. Notably, the word “slate” appeared only once (and “tablet” not at all) in Microsoft’s 800-word Windows 8 press release. Yet offering up only a single version of Windows may help the company avoid confusing the millions of customers already familiar with the ins and outs of Microsoft software. Though Windows 8 will offer a slew of new features and display options, it will also run existing Windows applications and retain the key elements of the Windows interface, guaranteeing consistency across versions of the software and different devices. Perhaps most importantly, it carries the well-known Windows brand. “For Microsoft to continue to produce a consistent experience for customers across devices is a good idea,” said Epps. “It gives customers confidence that all their stuff will work with a Windows device, no matter what shape it’s in.” Delivering a single operating system for both tablets and PCs may also assure Microsoft a large stable of apps. With Windows 8, developers could build a single app to work on any gadget running the software, rather than having to create different versions of an app for different devices. In Apple’s ecosystem, for example, a Mac app will not run on an iPad, and vice versa. “Microsoft has a huge install based of Windows machines out there, all of which are running Windows apps,” said Richard Edwards, an analyst with Ovum. “Microsoft has to provide a strategy that will take its existing business, that’s primarily keyboard-based, to a market that makes use of touch and ultimately gesture…While the tablet market as exemplified by Apple has spawned an opportunity for a new generation of applications, designers and builders, we have to remember that this is a market that’s been in existence for 20 odd years and Microsoft needs to leverage the [developer] community and provide them with the stepping stone into touch computing.” Still, others doubt that Microsoft’s bet on an all-in-one operating system will pay off. Some experts argue that consumers don’t want the same experience on a tablet than they do on a laptop, pointing to the success of the iPad, which simplifies, rather than recreates, the experience of using a Mac computer. Critics also say that people use tablets differently from PCs and, as Steve Jobs as argued in the past, will not want to swipe, tap or touch the screens of their laptops. MacWorld called Windows 8 “utterly poisoned by Microsoft’s old ways of thinking.” “The problem with the announcement is that Microsoft has failed to commit to the tablet as a unique type of device,” MacWorld added. “Rather than creating a new operating system for tablets, or use the existing (and intriguing) Windows Phone 7 as the basis for a Microsoft-powered tablet, the company will instead use an update to the traditional Windows PC operating system.” The danger, experts contend, is that Windows 8 may prove to be a mediocre software solution for a multitude of devices, while standout software on none. “Windows 8 is trying to have it all, and I don’t think that can be done,” wrote John Gruber, a tech blogger for the site Daring Fireball . “You can’t make something conceptually lightweight if it’s carrying 25 years of Windows baggage.” Delivering something radically different from what Apple has offered up, rather than attempting to mimic the iPad, could ultimately be Microsoft’s saving grace as its device will be instantly differentiated. Where the iPad simplifies and streamlines the computing experience, Windows 8 tablets may give it more punch, equipping people with 10-inch slates that have the same capabilities as a five-pound laptop. Ultimately, Microsoft can little afford to fall further behind: By the time Windows 8 is available on tablets in the market, Apple will likely be on the third version of the iPad. “They need to bring this to market in 2012,” said Epps. “And it’s not a moment too soon.”

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Lynn Parramore: Conversation with Jeff Madrick, Author of Age of Greed (Part One)

May 31, 2011

Cross-posted from New Deal 2.0 . Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick recently sat down with ND20 Editor Lynn Parramore to discuss his latest book, Age of Greed: The Triumph of Finance and the Decline of America, 1970 to the Present , which hits stands today. If you’re in the New York City area and want to learn more, catch Jeff at Cooper Union on Thursday, June 2nd. Click here for more information on the event. Lynn Parramore : You called your book Age of Greed , tracing the antecedents and activities of a four-decade period starting in the 1970s. Why did you choose greed as the central theme? Why not “Age of Risk” or “Age of Delusion”, for example? Jeff Madrick : I think greed always exists. It rises and falls with the times. But when it’s unchecked by government, which has been happening since the 1970s, it festers on itself. It becomes outsized and it badly distorts the economy. That is to say, self-interest rises to a level of greed that overwhelms the economic invisible hand. When self-interest turns into greed, people start using the power of business to undermine the way markets should work. What happened in this era was that people worked in their self-interest. They didn’t just take more risk. They were not deluded. Many of them took more risks than they should and merely did it because they made a buck. So greed really drove this decade: money and self-interest in the extreme drove very bad decision-making on Wall Street, which in turn, it’s important to emphasize, deeply harmed the American economy. LP : Walter Wriston, a name perhaps unknown to many Americans, gives the title to not one but two chapters of your book? Why is this figure pivotal? JM : My writing career began in the 1970s, so he was a big name to me. I interviewed him several times. Walter Wriston was the pioneer in the effort to deregulate financial markets. He was a talented, very bright man who ran a very powerful bank and had enormous access to the Republicans who took over in 1969 through Richard Nixon’s victory. And he is the one who began unraveling the regulations — the way controlled commercial banks, which took FDIC-insured savings deposits, could invest their money. In fact, as people read the book, they’ll see that he was a free-market ideologue. He really hated the New Deal. His father, a prominent conservative historian who ultimately was president of Brown University, hated the New Deal. Wriston inherited that from him in my view. But he also used it for his company’s own gain. In the 1970s, Wriston really began to whittle down the famous ” Regulation Q “, which controlled the interest rate that could pay savers to attract money. And therefore the banks could get more aggressive about where they lent the money. He also developed an enormous international business. What was remarkable about Wriston — to the detriment of the American economy to a degree but especially to the third world — was that he took the petrodollars of the Arab nations. The Arab nations got a lot of dollars when they tripled, quadrupled and again doubled the price of oil. All of that was paid in dollars to them. They had to do something with those dollars. Wriston leaped in to recycle them by making loans to the third world –especially by developing nations. Especially in South America. Government could just as easily have been handled by the I.M.F., the World Bank, or some ad hoc group of governments to oversee the use of that money, and even to make it equity money, not loan money — investments and productive business. Instead it was lent to countries, and, to some degree, companies that had exported commodities. Wriston heralded how well his loan officers could manage that money and the loans almost all turned bad in the 1980s — so bad that the banks chose to stop lending to countries in trouble, particularly Mexico in 1982. The Fed and the I.M.F. had to rescue, in effect, the American banks. LP : Wriston started his career -and remained for some time — a rather unassuming man who lived in a middle class housing project. But by the end of his career he was living among celebrities and driving fancy sports cars. Does that trajectory reflect a key change in American banking and financial culture? JM : A good friend of mine told me back in the ’70s that financiers never became wildly rich in American history. Take J.P. Morgan, the greatest financier in American history. When he died, Andrew Carnegie said, “I didn’t know he had so little money.” In the 1970s that began to change. Financiers became enormously wealthy. Wriston was the leading edge of that, but he wasn’t the man to make by any means the most money. He wanted to make a bank into a growth company, like Xerox or IBM or Johnson & Johnson, which were the great growth companies. Or later, Microsoft, Apple. But should banks have been growth companies? In the meantime, he began to travel in a very powerful world and he began to live the good life. I think it was the beginning of that kind of thing, but others took it to excesses that made him look like a piker. LP : That brings me to Ivan Boesky. He’s the first character in the book who really seems to capture the very essence of greed. He’s a bandit with no pretense that he’s working on behalf of anyone else. Was he the beginning of this era’s greed in its purest form? JM : Ivan had no illusions about what he was doing. Now, I don’t know if that’s as un-admirable as it sounds. Because many of the other guys created a pretense to allow them to seek their self-interest–and, in my view, become excessive, even corrupt. Ivan knew he was corrupt. He intended to be corrupt. Where he was stupid is that he really didn’t even try to seriously cover his tracks. LP : Was he an outlier? Did this type of behavior become something others wanted to emulate? JM : He was the leading edge of the culture. Few people were quite as crude as Boesky. They disguised it. They didn’t brag about it that much. But they were very aggressive in their own way and Ivan occasionally talked about that famous line from Adam Smith that greed is healthy. He thought he was emulating Smith. By greed he meant self-interest. But he wasn’t really concerned about those bigger things. He had certain psychological issues, some of which I trace in my book. He needed constant social affirmation. He needed it. In my view, he couldn’t walk into a room anonymously. It just was too much for his shallow and very weak ego. He needed that money and would do anything for it. He was a mobster. He was addicted to money and he would commit financial crimes to get it with no qualms. LP : You outline how the hatred of government intrusion drove many of the early proponents of the free market model. This seems a great irony, given that financiers who hate government need its cooperation — its guarantees, its bailouts — in order to get and stay rich. How do you explain this contradiction? JM : Self-interest means that you will do anything, even utilize government, to make your money and to retain your place in society. There are many examples of people who think that the rules apply to others but not themselves. Wriston was a classic example of this. It wasn’t only the bad bank loans. In 1970 when Penn Central went bankrupt, his bank made the most commercial paper loans to Penn Central. He was scared to death everything was going to fall apart. He called the Fed – I don’t know if he spoke to the Chairman, Arthur Burns, but the Fed opened its window like it did in 2007. This happened many times with Wriston. He talked this game of free competition, but when he needed to be bailed out, he got bailed out. So it’s an extreme hypocrisy — not an unusual characteristic of egotistical, ambitious men and women. There are double standards. LP : Many argue today that government has been captured, or even restructured through the influence of the financial and banking industries. Is this true? If so, how can trust in government – trust in its ability to intervene in crises — be restored? JM : There is no explanation for the deregulation and lack of oversight on the part of Washington except that they were snookered, beholden, or saw where their bread was buttered because of the rise of Wall Street and how much money you could make. Something we have to be cautious about: we’re snookered by a simplistic ideology. The people who adopt ideologies and idealism do so often because it favors themselves and their own pocketbooks. The history of this period is a history of the abdication of government authority. Part of it was the result of this rising ideology in the ’70s. Part of it was because Americans became convinced that big government and some kinds of regulations are problems. A lot of it had to do eventually with the sheer power of business to attract and influence these decision makers. LP : Could government have done anything to stop greed? JM : Greed would have remained checked had government been doing what it should be doing. And that’s a tragedy of the age. One point we have to make clear is that the nation did not start wasting its money and losing its precious resources in 2007, 2008 and 2009. The financial community has been ill-serving the nation since the 1970s. I talked about the bad loans Wriston made. There were also all kinds of bad real estate loans made in that period. In the ’80s the banks and other financial institutions financed the corporate takeovers – that was billions and billions of dollars. The S&L’s made all kinds of bad loans because they were deregulated. In the early ’90s banks and securities firms began using derivatives to make tricky loans to companies like Proctor&Gamble and Orange County. In 1994, when the Fed raised interest rates, those financial structures fell apart and Wall Street almost with it. In the late 1990s, Wall Street financed all kinds of high-tech fantasies. There was bad accounting. Outright lies by financial analysts on Wall Street. You could not keep your job and make your fame on Wall Street unless you lied. Accounting fraud and unaccepted accounting practices were rife throughout American in the late 1990s. LP : So greed is the central problem, but deceit is the handmaiden? JM : When you sell a product — Electrolux vacuum cleaners, Avon hand lotions – it would be naïve to think that there isn’t some kind of exaggeration. But Wall Street became imbued with deceit at very high levels of transactions. The cost to the economy – the misallocation of resources – was huge. In the 1970s there were the bad loans in Central America. In the 1980s, the outrageous investments made by S&Ls with federally insured money. In the 1980s again – huge hostile takeovers financed with tax-deductible dollars that were not ameliorated by government. In the 1990s, the high-technology fantasies — Enron and WorldCom, telecom companies rife with accounting frauds. This amounted to hundreds of billions of dollars of bad investment. Even trillions of dollars. And then, of course, the 2000s – there were the subprime mortgages and other bad mortgages. Trillions, literally. LP : What have these losses meant to America’s economy? JM : This is all a misallocation of resources in America. When Alan Greenspan said his great mea culpa –”I have this model of the economy and it worked for forty years and then it didn’t work” – that is nonsense. It did not work. There was constant misallocation of losses. He would argue, well, we need those losses in order to have the good. But look what happened to the economy during this period. We had twenty-two or twenty-three years of low-productivity growth. When productivity did start to rise, typical workers benefited from it only for a few short years in the late 1990s. Wages over this period of the Age of Greed have stagnated. They’re actually down for men. They’re up for women but only moderately over time, and women still make significantly less than men do with the same qualifications on average. What kind of economy is that? We haven’t invested in transportation, education, health care advances, energy. The list goes on and on. And who knows how much manufacturing innovation we failed to invest in because of what happened on Wall Street. **Stay tuned tomorrow for Part Two of this interview and find out what we need to do to change course.

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Sramana Mitra: Twitter, LinkedIn: Why Not Affiliates?

May 27, 2011

During today’s roundtable, I opened with a question that was going to be a key topic of discussion at the end of the show: Why do large sites like Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, etc. make so little use of the affiliate business model for monetization purposes? This is a question I would like to address to you guys as well. Please use the comments below to give your thoughts and analyses on why you think Twitter is not using the affiliate business model to monetize its immense traffic. The same question applies to many large sites that prefer CPM-based display ads to affiliate deals, and my hypothesis is if they used affiliate-based monetization more aggressively, they would be making a lot more money. For related material, please read my recent post Making Money With Blogs . It would give you some concrete details to tackle this somewhat hairy strategy question that I believe the CEOs of Twitter, LinkedIn, TechCrunch and others need to consider. Got Produce? As for the presenters, first up, Deborah Walliser from Redding, California, presented Got Produce? . This is a greenhouse technology to grow fresh agricultural produce. Deborah has interest from Whole Foods and some other grocery stores to build such greenhouses near their distribution centers. She, however, has framed the business model as a franchise, whereas in my opinion, this is a technology licensing and services business. I have advised her to course-correct and validate with the potential customers how much they are willing to pay and in what framework. Priyanka Bhatnagar Jewellery & Accessories Next, Priyanka Bhatnagar from Pune, India, pitched Priyanka Bhatnagar Jewellery & Accessories , an e-commerce jewelry line. Priyanka needs to learn a lot about how to position an e-commerce business in a hyper-crowded jewelry market. The only way I can really help her is by putting her through 1M/1M premium, because it is impossible for me to give her a crash course on e-commerce in three minutes. Snowboard Wax Mobile Apps Then Adam Lee from Incline, Nevada, presented a mobile app for snowboarders who want to wax their own snowboards. The market sizing of the business is full of assumptions that made me very uncomfortable, the chief of those being that over 40% of free members would convert to premium. Freemium conversion rates are usually 4% at the very best, more like 1% to 2% average. I advised Adam to also build this as a B-to-B business selling apps to snowboard wax makers and even board vendors. Of course, this needs to be validated. Finally, we had a discussion on Adam’s proposal to sell 20% of his equity for $50K, which I thought was preposterous. That’s like selling your prized assets for nothing in a flea market. No way! Adam needs a crash course on financing and should go digest the 1M/1M curriculum module on that topic ASAP. You can select the business you like best of those discussed today through a poll on the 1M/1M Facebook page . The recording of today’s roundtable can be found here . Recordings of previous roundtables are all available here . You can register for upcoming roundtables here . And you can sign up for the 1M/1M premium program here . Also, folks, remember, the Microsoft India Startup Grant application deadline is June 2nd. Don’t miss it!

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Jonathan Littman: World Bad, Sony Good

May 24, 2011

Sony’s CEO has forwarded a remarkable new rationale for his company’s recent catastrophic network security failures. Howard Stringer warned last week that the April hacker thefts of millions of his customers’ personal records are a prelude to global digital horrors. “It’s not a brave new world,” he told the media. “It’s a bad new world.” Preaching Armageddon as a PR response to a corporation’s own faulty technology and service is an unlikely tactic, especially when continuing attacks this very week show that Sony has clearly not eliminated its vulnerabilities. It’s not our mess, Stringer seems to be implying with his dramatic blame shifting. It’s the world’s mess. What’s strange about this is that it seems to undercut an apology by Kaz Hirai , the head of Sony’s gaming division, delivered ten days after the intrusion. Reuters called Stringer’s comments “a stark departure from the remorseful tone struck just two weeks ago.” Just last week the company offered an apology package , including a 12-month free identity protection program, free games and free content. Though late in coming, those were strong moves. Yet Stringer’s comments suggest Sony does not truly feel sorry for how badly it has treated its customers. What this bizarre narrative demonstrates is that Stringer and Sony are stuck in the first stages of grief: Not over the harm they have inflicted upon their customers, but in the potentially irreparable damage they have done to themselves and their brand. Stage one of grief is shock and denial, stage two is pain and guilt, and stage three is anger and bargaining. Sony has gone through the first two stages and now Stringer is lashing back at critics who have blasted the firm for everything from its substandard security to an indefensible delay in alterting tens of millions of customers — many of them children — that personal and credit records were stolen. “Forty-three percent (of companies) notify victims within a month,” a feisty Stringer told reporters last week in his first public statement since the April break-ins. “You’re telling me my week wasn’t fast enough?” It was a bizarre statistical crutch to rely upon to defend what’s widely considered one of the worst network security gaffes in history. Why compare your firm to average companies? Especially when New York’s Attorney General and Congress are demanding Sony turn over detailed information about its security breakdown. Like how it allowed hackers to steal the names, addresses, email addresses, birthdays, and PlayStation Network login details of over 100 million customers. But Stringer’s most surprising plot twist was to attempt to divert scrutiny of Sony’s problems with a wild claim of impending doom. Stringer told the media that one day hackers may strike at the power grid, air traffic controllers, or the global financial system. Is Stringer Rumpolstillskin? Hackers have been attacking the Internet and high-tech companies for more than two decades. In 1990, I wrote about Rober Morris, the Harvard graduate who launched the first Internet worm, a science experiment gone awry that disabled a large chunk of the budding network. In the mid ’90s I wrote The Fugitive Game and T he Watchman , two books about the hackers, Kevin Mitnick and Kevin Poulsen, that showed the deep vulnerability of the Internet and major corporations to criminal intrusions. Every major firm doing business on the Internet knows that their potential — and Achilles’ heel — is the Internet. Google, Facebook, Microsoft and hundreds more corporations have known this for a very long time. The Internet makes these companies billions in profit. Doing business responsibly on the Internet — and taking extraordinary care for the personal records and privacy of your customers — is nothing short of a sacred duty. Quite simply, Sony abandoned its duty, and Stringer is steaming mad about that internal breakdown because he knows that it threatens Sony’s future. The timing couldn’t be worse. This week Sony posted a $3.2 billion loss, due in part to the March earthquake and tsunami. The CEO has declared that Sony did everything possible to prevent the break-ins. That is denial. We’ve seen this broken narrative before. It is not taking the high road. It does not work. Congress, investigative journalists and hackers will eventually reveal the truth, and it will prove even more costly to the company’s tattered reputation (Experts have already predicted the breach will cost Sony nearly $1 billion). We will learn that Sony engineers and officials knew of inherent internal weaknesses. That it had plans to roll out a new, more secure system. That it could have taken far more steps to prevent or reduce the harm to its customers. Sony’s story won’t play. It won’t play because it is not authentic, and it won’t play because Stringer can’t seem to remember his own narrative. Security — and honest communication — requires consistency. In the same week that Stringer declared the attacks on Sony had ushered in a “bad new world,” he called the crisis “a hiccup in the road to a network future.” Which is it — trivial or cataclysmic? And what a strange, disconnected way to talk about a potential disaster for tens of millions of Sony customers? Would you like threats to your financial and personal security to be seen by Sony as nothing more than hiccup? And what of Stringer’s suggestion that the future does not hold “a brave new world” but a “bad new world?” On top of everything else, Stringer apparently is ignorant of the meaning of a ” brave new world .” In reaching for a sound bite, Sony made another gaffe. Perhaps the embattled CEO or someone on his communications team should have bothered to read the Wikipedia page on Aldous Huxley’s 1932 book, Brave New World . Stringer shot himself in the foot. Huxley himself described Brave New World as a “nightmare.” The Wikipedia page says that the dystopian sci-fi novel explored the “fear of losing individual identity in the fast-paced world of the future.” Indeed. Jonathan Littman is the co-author of the Ten Faces of Innovation and the Art of Innovation. He is the founder of Snowball Narrative.

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Sophos Appoints Steve Hale as Vice President of Global Channels

May 24, 2011

Former Microsoft and Novell Channel Executive to Drive Sophos Channel Sales Worldwide

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IBM Now Worth More Than Microsoft

May 20, 2011

IBM passed Microsoft in market cap for the first time in 15 years. By the end of the day Friday, IBM’s market cap had hit $208 billion, just edging out Microsoft’s $207.9 billion. While IBM’s stock has been rising over the past year, Microsoft’s has stayed flat, and has started to drop. Both companies come behind Apple, which at over $311 billion is well ahead. Microsoft’s fall to third comes a year after Apple first passed Microsoft in value. At the time, Apple’s market cap was $222 billion to Microsoft’s was $219 billion. But as Apple continues to strengthen its lead, Microsoft has let the gap widen. According to Geekosystem , Microsoft’s stock has fallen 58 percent since the beginning of the 2000s, while IBM’s stock has increased in value by 57 percent. Though stock fluctuations could bring Microsoft back up to number two, the event serves as a sharp reminder of just how different the situation was 20 years ago, when Microsoft looked unbeatable, and IBM seemed poised to fade into obsolescence.

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Robert Teitelman: The Economist Joins the Tech Bubble Herd

May 18, 2011

The construction of a new conventional wisdom is a wondrous feat. Seemingly, in the middle of the night, a new truth emerges that is impregnable, monolithic and unassailable, and it rises upon a landscape scattered with the rubble of previous conventional wisdoms. The newest “truth” is what appeared this week on the cover of the Economist : “The new tech bubble.” But it’s not just the Economist , which does wrestle with some of the complexities of bubble creation. The Economist , in fact, comes a little late to this parlor game. The notion that there’s a new tech bubble — inflated valuations from social media wunderkinds like Facebook, Twitter, Groupon and LinkedIn to the nosebleed-high $8.5 billion Microsoft paid to grab Skype — has been a blogospheric meme and has recently graced, as if by dictation from above, nearly every major newspaper. But is it true? Are these ballooning valuations for a handful of tech startups, mostly in social media, a reprise of the dot-com bust of 2001, or for that matter, the mortgage bubble and meltdown? How strong is the evidence? Are their divergences from those previous bubbles, which of course we can only confirm as bubbles because they burst? And the key question really: Why do we believe that we can call this inflation of tech valuations a bubble, when we’ve been so wrong, so regularly, in the past? What does it say about the power of the media to do anything about it? And what do we really mean when we say there’s a bubble brewing? The Economist offers a compact recitation of the charges that a tech bubble is inflating. The valuations for Facebook and Twitter — still private companies — are astronomical. Skype was clearly overvalued by Microsoft, based on its still-thin earnings. “Prices,” notes the Economist , look even more excessive for fledgling firms in the private market (Color, a photo-sharing social network, was recently said to be worth $100 million, even though it has an untested service) or for anything involving China. There has been a stampede for shares in Renren, hailed as China’s ‘Facebook,’ and other Chinese web giants listed on American exchanges. The Economist does offer some caveats. The world is different than in 2001 and the Internet is a far larger, more diverse universe with extensive broadband connectivity. Moreover, many of these startups have real revenues and earnings, unlike the hundreds of dot-com startups of the late ’90s that had traffic but no discernible business models. Those ’90s startups were also hoisted aloft on a vast surge of initial public offerings, which has yet to develop. And while tech stocks have been rising, as a group they’re well below the Nasdaq of 2000. So where’s the bubble? The Economist argues that wealthy angel investors, many of whom made their money in the ’90s, are scrambling to take stakes in Web startups, competing with traditional venture capitalists who in turn are feeling heat from “Gucci-shod leveraged-buyout-kings” (oh please) and “bank-led funds hunting for profits in a bleak investment environment.” Most of this hot money, the Economist declares, hasn’t done its due diligence and doesn’t know tech (perhaps, but no evidence is offered). And to make matters worse, they’re increasingly investing overseas, adding to the risk. How does the Economist marry up these two seemingly contradictory realities? The magazine admits that we’re still early on in the bubble process. Facebook and LinkedIn look like real companies — like Google, which stirred its own bubble prognostications after its IPO in 2004 — but that will just feed the mania to overinflate the startups that the magazine believes will inevitably follow. “The froth in China’s web industry could also lead to unrealistic valuations elsewhere. And it may be China that causes the web bubble eventually to burst.” Notice the “could” and “may.” But even then, “with luck the latest web bubble will do less damage than its predecessor,” mostly because telecom isn’t mixed up in the mess (though given its latent state, who knows what neighboring sectors will get sucked in). The Economist then asks: “When will that be?” Excellent question. But after congratulating itself on calling the dot-com and mortgage bubbles, it fails to answer it. Someday. In the future. Could there be a tech bubble gestating? Certainly. But there could also be a bubble in emerging market stocks, in anything China, in energy and commodities and, for all I know, in rare earth metals and university tuitions. The wonderful thing about bubble prediction is that it’s so easy. No one will really care if you’re wrong — you’re just being provocative, even if you’re part of a herd — and the definition of a bubble can extend from an uptick in prices that aren’t sustainable to a crash that threatens the economy. This may explain why, at the end of the day, no one pays attention to bubble warnings: They occur too often, and they’re often far too amorphous and far too early. Contrary to the media critics, bubble warnings appeared regularly on both the dot-coms and mortgages. Few listened. Or rather, not enough listened and, importantly, acted to stop the inflation and destruction. In a decent market, some stocks — or M&A and private valuations — are always being driven up. There are always hot sectors that the “smart” money is chasing like a newly discovered cache of Warhols. And as the Economist admits, those investment decisions may be sloppy, but they aren’t necessarily irrational or based on fantasy. Facebook, like Google, looks like the real thing, which wasn’t necessarily apparent just a few years ago. LinkedIn is a real company, making its IPO valuation a matter of debate, not sheer faith. The process of bubble inflation is not fast, and it’s not simple. It requires both a larger supply of startups than we have right now and a broadening beyond the bounds of a single sector. The dot-com bubble grew serious when it drew in telecom and when it spread beyond the smart money, which can make as many mistakes as anyone, and into the broad retail universe. Real estate inflation became a bubble when it spread nationwide and drew in more than just subprime; it became a mortal threat when it sucked in core financial institutions. For the “new” tech bubble to become a systemic danger, it must diffuse far beyond what the Economist calls “the antics of angels” and into the consumer world, and it must spread beyond social media — say, to mobile. To drive the bubble, some fundamental innovation needs to occur, which as yet, we do not detect. After all, this is also the age of Tyler Cowan’s “stagnation” thesis, which also may be right or may be wrong, but which clearly represents one aspect of the Zeitgeist. The dot-com bubble was powerfully driven by tech euphoria, underpinned by low interest rates, strong growth, robust productivity, low inflation, low unemployment and a sense that the American-centric world grew better and better every day. A bubble is always the confluence of many streams; the probabilities have to line up. Right now, we only have a few of them. It’s a leap — though always possible — to predict a few more. But as we project out, our ability to get anything right decays. And the Economist is peering pretty far out in this exceedingly turbulent world. This is a glib observation, but I’ll offer it anyway: The closest thing to a bubble in tech these days may be the rush to declare it a bubble in the media. Even if it turns out to be the case, it would be more luck than prescience.

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10 Fastest Growing U.S. Industries

May 18, 2011

Over the course of the recession, major companies have failed, entire industries have withered. But at least a few have not only survived, but grown. IBISWorld’s recently released report, ” Top 10 Fastest Growing Industries ,” delves deeper into the trends discussed in last month’s report on dying industries . Except this time, their focusing on the good instead of the bad. Dying telecommunications and newspaper industries have made way for other companies based around internet and technology. No one’s revenue growth comes even close to that of voice over Internet protocol (VoIP) providers, like Skype, as the entire industry’s revenue grew by 194 percent in the las tyear. That could help explain Microsoft’s surprising decision to purchase the company for $8.5 billion earlier this month. Growing environmental concerns have helped companies focusing on alternative energy, specifically wind power, which has grown 16.9 percent over the last decade. And if there’s any industry that’s benefited from the collective tightening of corporations, it’s third-party administrators and insurance claims adjusters, both of which help clients increase efficiency and cut costs. Below are the the top ten fastest growing industries in the U.S. based on percentage increase in revenue:

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Guess Who Is About To Pass Microsoft In Market Cap?

May 16, 2011

It’s not Google. It’s IBM. That’s right: the company that gave Microsoft its big break, only to be eclipsed as the PC revolution replaced the mainframe.

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Microsoft’s Antitrust Saga Finally Comes To An End

May 12, 2011

Microsoft’s historic and prolonged dispute with U.S. regulators over antitrust violations has finally come to an end. And how things have changed. May 12 marks the expiration of a consent decree the software giant signed with the Department of Justice in 2002, an agreement that narrowly saved Microsoft from being broken up after it was found guilty of using its dominant position to stifle competition. On the anniversary of the agreement, the Department of Justice cheered its victory, while Microsoft adopted a more repentant tone. The company said of the thirteen years it spent under the scrutiny of antitrust regulators, “Our experience has changed us and shaped how we view our responsibility to the industry.” The Department of Justice celebrated the Microsoft antitrust case as a vital ruling that fostered competition in the tech industry and said it had paved the way for new products, including “computing services and mobile devices.” It wrote in a statement : The final judgment proved effective in protecting the development and distribution of middleware products and prevented Microsoft from continuing the type of exclusionary behavior that led to the original lawsuit. Microsoft no longer dominates the computer industry as it did when the complaint was filed in 1998. Nearly every desktop middleware market, from web browsers to media players to instant messaging software, is more competitive today than it was when the final judgment was entered. Nine years is a lifetime in Silicon Valley and while Microsoft remains one of the world’s most valuable technology companies, it is a far cry from the industry overlord it was years ago. Critics once derided Microsoft as the “Death Star” and “Evil Empire” bent on the domination of all desktops. Now it has a new nickname: Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg recently deemed it the “underdog.” Microsoft software still powers nine out of every ten computers, but it has lost ground in vital areas. In smartphones, music players, and search, it is struggling catch-up to Apple and Google, two companies that were floundering and yet-to-be-born, respectively, when Microsoft was hit with antitrust lawsuits in 1998. Microsoft’s mobile phone operating system has seen its share plummet from 35 percent in 2003 to 7.5 percent in 2011. Its search engine, Bing, has swallowed billions of dollars, but still claims just 14 percent of the market to Google’s 65 percent. And the same browser that put Microsoft at odds with regulators saw its market share fall below 50 percent for the first time ever. And now, even as Microsoft makes its peace, regulators are turning their spotlight on another Silicon Valley behemoth: Google. Already facing antitrust scrutiny in Europe and South Korea , Google is rumored to be the target an antitrust probe being launched by the FTC . Where antitrust matters are concerned, Google may be the new Microsoft. A law professor told Bloomberg that an FTC investigation of Google “could be on par’ the Department of Justice’s probe of Microsoft. WATCH:

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Dinkar Jain: To India and China, With Love: America to Send Back Her Job-Creating Graduates

May 12, 2011

These lines, etched in bronze, embellish the Statue of Liberty and also articulate the sentiment of this great American emblem: “Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, … Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door!” Emma Lazarus’s sonnet might need to be rewritten. Today, she might write: “Give me your ambitious, brainy young. I will shine the lamp of my colleges, universities and libraries on them. Your masses yearning to learn shall learn, And shall walk back through this golden door straight into your arms.” There are many reasons why graduates of American universities are leaving, especially if they came from overseas. One obvious one is that these graduates find better economic opportunities overseas today than they used to a decade ago. But the fact remains that they also find the American policies on highly skilled immigration irksome. Highly irksome. Never before has a country invited the best brains from around the world, given them an education using her own money and then, pandering to the irrational sentiments of the angry and easily misguided, asked these brains to depart and invest their blossoming talents for the progress and betterment of interests and nations alien to herself. The story of reverse brain drain in the top bracket of human talent plays out something like this: International students come to America to study. They pay tuition, but also benefit greatly from American taxpayer money, grants and endowments. Many colleges will tell you that tuition doesn’t even fully cover the cost of the education they are providing to their students. International students who pay tuition variously benefit from vast amounts of research grants, corporate-sponsored programs and endowment-financed facilities and buildings. Many international students also get large amounts of financial aid and scholarships. Many, if not most, international students who come to the U.S. to obtain advanced degrees, such as PhDs, usually do so on scholarships or tuition waivers in lieu of teaching or research. But after paying for them, American immigration laws make it tough for them to stay. Limits on H1B visas, the tedium & delays of processing green cards and labor certifications for citizens of India and China, and other restrictions on timing and requirements of practical training clauses in student visas greatly restrict economic presence of these graduates in the United States on completion of their degrees. Because it is tough for them to stay, the economic benefits of this labor pool accrue to other countries. Offices are opened abroad. Companies are started and funded abroad. American companies want to hire these international students who turn into managers, scientists and engineers. These companies would have opened offices here, but since they can’t hire them here, they go overseas. From Microsoft on an announcement of opening a new center in 2007: “The Microsoft Canada Development Centre… [in] Vancouver, Canada… will be home to software developers from around the world… [and] allows the company to recruit and retain highly skilled people affected by immigration issues in the U.S. … [It] would create a tremendous opportunity for Canada…. while providing strong economic benefits to British Columbia and Canada.” Many entrepreneurs from among these managers, scientists and engineers educated at American universities are starting companies outside America. Visas aren’t available for them to start companies here with local capital. Venture capitalists (with American pension money, American endowment money and the money of wealthy Americans) wanting to fund these entrepreneurs educated at American universities are funding companies outside America. Further, taxes and employment from all this economic activity related to these new companies are benefiting nations outside America. Examples of upcoming companies that have benefited from this reverse migration of people and capital include SnapDeal, PubMatic, Makemytrip.com, A Thinking Ape, Praetorian Group, Campfire Labs and the like. This is in addition to the right-sourcing of jobs and talent by behemoths like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, eBay, Intel and the like. You get the picture. America’s universities educate the world’s best minds, many times at a subsidized price. Then America sends these minds abroad to raise money from American VC funds to start companies abroad and employ foreigners. This is not about comprehensive immigration reform. This is about a common sense and easy economic survival technique. The issues here are not related to comprehensive immigration reform, which deals with highly-sensitive issues pertaining to 10-12 million people. Highly-skilled immigration reform only has to do with a few thousand graduates of reputed American schools every year — it is something so removed from the issues of illegal immigration that conflating these two distinctive issues is like masking legitimate legislation in reams and reams of pork barrel measures. Comprehensive immigration reform is impractical given the politics in Washington, DC. Highly-skilled immigration reform is basic common sense. These two have nothing to do with each other with the exception of political posturing needs. Academics, business leaders and politicians on both sides of the aisle generally agree with this but can’t act: “…engineering and technology companies started in the U.S. from 1995 to 2005….25.3% of these [have] at least one key foreign-born founder. Nationwide, these immigrant-founded companies produced $52 billion in sales and employed 450,000 workers in 2005.” – Vivek Wadhwa ‘s “America’s New Immigrant Entrepreneurs” (Duke University, UC Berkeley 2007) “Microsoft has found that for every H-1B hire we make, we add on average four additional employees to support them in various capacities.” – Bill Gates (Congressional testimony , 2008) “It makes no sense to educate the world’s future inventors and entrepreneurs and then force them to leave when they are able to contribute to our economy.” – Charles E. Schumer (D) & Lindsey Graham (R) ( Washington Post , 2010) Until America gets anywhere on this issue, the world will keep taking back its educated, upgraded and highly-skilled people educated and trained in America. Perhaps, like American universities do from alumni, America could also ask these countries and their American-educated citizens for endowment contributions? The solicitation letter will go something like this: “To India & China, with Love: America needs your help now, more than ever before, as we shooed away our job creating graduates.”

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Dr. Philip Neches: Where the Rubber Meets the Skype

May 11, 2011

In the early days of my company, one of our first big customers described our system as “where the rubber meets the sky:” wildly visionary yet entirely practical. It was a great complement. In 2003, the founders of Skype had a vision that was both wild and practical: “free” phone service. They realized that PC’s had become powerful enough to run packet-switching protocols for handling voice calls. Different packet-switching protocols had been used inside the telephone system for decades, but required expensive, special equipment owned and operated by the phone company. Skype’s founders realized that the user had already paid for both the PC and the Internet connection, so computer-to-computer voice calls needed no new spending by the user, hence the perception of being “free.” It gets better. The Skype founders realized that with the PC and the Internet doing almost all of the work of handling the call, their business would require only a tiny amount of capital compared to building out a new telephone system. Further, users would recommend the system to other users, so it would cost almost nothing to attract new customers. A handful of employees and a small fleet of computer servers could handle millions of users. It seemed like the Estonian founders discovered a new gold mine. In 2005, eBay snapped up the burgeoning enterprise for a reported $2.6 billion. Their timing could not have been worse. Wall Street’s love affair with Internet stocks was already over; the champagne toasts turned to a long, nasty hangover. Despite management turmoil, write-downs, and divestitures, Skype kept growing, reaching 663 million signed-up users by 2009 and handling 13% of all international calls by 2010. Skype kept adding services, including calls to and from ordinary wire-line and wireless phones, for a fee. Most of Skype’s revenues ($525M in 2008; $575M in 2009) are for those calls, and most of its expenses are settlements to ordinary phone companies for those same calls ($225M in 2008; $290M in 2009). These figures illuminate Skype as a money-making engine. With almost 50% gross margin, few employees (less than 1,000), and relatively low capital investment, Skype should be a solid money-maker. But a limited one. While Skype is valuable to its users, they already paid their PC manufacturer and Internet provider for all of the resources that deliver that value. Skype recovers none of this in their business model. Zip. Zero. Nada. The sizzle is that Skype is the world’s largest voice carrier, largest international operator, largest video conferencer, etc. The steak, or more exactly the hamburger, is that Skype is a reseller of conventional telephone minutes. A solid and profitable reseller, but a modest one by telecommunications industry standards. The thing is that other companies get the revenue for most of Skype’s sizzling services. If you think of Skype as a phone company with 663 million customers, it should be enormously valuable. The entire US telecommunications industry, with less than half as many customers, has an aggregate market capitalization of $383 billion . If that were the case, Microsoft’s $8.5 billion buy-out offer would be a steal. But Skype is not a phone company. It’s cash business is to resell conventional phone minutes. That cash business might, in a stretch, be worth one-third of Microsoft’s offer. So what it is? Perhaps the customer base? But a Skype account does Microsoft no good by itself. They will have to figure out how to invest even more money to follow up on that contact to sell them something else. The going rate on Facebook is about $1 per click-through . A click-through means that the user already has interest in the offer and wants to learn more, a big step ahead of where Microsoft will be with Skype users when the deal closes. Steve Ballmer is paying almost $13 per user. Make that $10 if you take out the value of Skype’s minute-reselling business. So it’s hard to see how Microsoft could possibly sell enough product to enough people to justify this heady price. Microsoft would have to sell an additional Xbox machine or Office license to each and every one of Skype’s 663,000,000 users for the deal to make sense. Ballmer does have an easier go than Meg Whitman. She spent almost $35 per user on Skype in 2005, and eBay never figured out how to leverage it. I don’t see it.

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Ernan Roman: Powerful Strategies for Customer Retention and Engagement

May 11, 2011

THE PROBLEM: Given the soaring cost of customer acquisition, retaining customers has become a major priority. THE SOLUTION: New strategies for effective customer engagement are required. Traditional customer satisfaction indicators do not provide sufficiently detailed information to help you reengineer your complex customer retention strategies. You need in-depth customer insights to guide you regarding how customers define true engagement and what you need to change to increase retention. Life Line Screening is a leading provider of community-based preventive health services. The company provides affordable, high-quality screenings that are essential to the early detection of risk for stroke, heart disease, diabetes, osteoporosis and other conditions. This relationship marketing innovator’s direct-to-consumer model is at the forefront of consumer-driven healthcare. According to Eric Greenberg, Life Line’s Executive Vice President of Marketing, Our goal was ambitious: To double the total number of returning customers from 2009 to 2012. Initially, our focus had been on the familiar Net Promoter Score (NPS), which measures the consumer’s answer on a one-to-ten scale to the question, “How likely is it that you would recommend our company to a friend or colleague?” In support of increasing scores using that metric, senior management undertook a number of important initiatives, including improvements in customer feedback and response systems, “training blasts,” internal incentives, the “adoption” of certain lower-performing teams, and the circulation of a fourteen-point Customer Guarantee. These initiatives led to improvements in the NPS scores, which already were at very high levels. But, management felt the improvements weren’t as significant as they expected. According to Eric, We knew that what we had been doing was adequate, but we weren’t convinced it was superior. Our customers are quite satisfied with the service we provide and the value for the money.Yet, sometimes customer satisfaction is not enough. Your customers can be quite satisfied with your product or service but view their experience with you as a worthwhile single event, not the beginning of an ongoing relationship. Life Line Screening realized that in order to achieve the projected magnitude of increases in customer retention, they needed a much deeper understanding of customers’ expectations for a more satisfying experience and relationship. So they initiated a research study using in-depth, 60 minute Voice of the Customer (VOC) interviews with a cross-section of customers. As Eric explains: What we are learning from the VOC research is that our customers trust us and value what we provide them. But, they are looking for deeper and ongoing engagement. This means that they are looking for us to be more proactive across all the customer touch points. If we want customers to truly value us as a part of their healthcare team, we have to more proactively engage with them — whether that means an outbound service call to allay their fears before their first screening, or a call to ask if they understood their screening results, or ways to help them feel comfortable and at ease during the screening process. They want us to provide information, solutions, and ideas that can help them stay healthy and independent. Results: By implementing retention programs per the in-depth feedback from their customers, Life Line Screening has already achieved a 40 percent increase in returning customers. Ongoing changes will drive further increases in retention. TRY THIS: Develop strategies for providing deeper and ongoing engagement. These strategies should enable you to be more proactive across all the customer touch points. Pre-test these strategies with customers to determine if these are appropriate and effective. Don’t rely on just one research methodology. Deploy different techniques based on the complexity of your objectives. In-depth VOC research is appropriate when you have complex objectives which require detailed information to guide development of strategies and action plans. The 60 minute interviews enabled Life Line Screening to benefit from in-depth discussion with customers which enabled them to identify, in great detail, the many steps required to significantly improve the customer experience. NPS was helpful to Life Line Screening because it helped them to launch important new initiatives that ultimately led to greater customer satisfaction. However, since NPS is based on responses to just one question, it is limited in the detailed guidance and direction it can provide for making changes. Ernan Roman is President of the marketing consultancy, Ernan Roman Direct Marketing. Recognized as the industry pioneer who created three transformational methodologies: Integrated Direct Marketing, Opt-In Marketing, and Voice of Customer Relationship Research. Clients include Microsoft, NBC Universal, Disney, Hewlett-Packard and IBM. Ernan was named to “B to B’s Who’s Who” as one of the “100 most influential people” in Business Marketing by Crain’s B to B Magazine. His fourth and latest book on marketing best practices is titled: Voice of the Customer Marketing: A Proven 5-Step Process to Create Customers Who Care, Spend, and Stay . Ernan is also the co-author of “Opt-In Marketing: Increase Sales Exponentially with Consensual Marketing” and author of “Integrated Direct Marketing: The Cutting Edge Strategy for Synchronizing Advertising, Direct Mail, Telemarketing and Field Sales.” www.erdm.com ernan@erdm.com

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Video: Maynard Sees Skype Boosting Microsoft Mobile Business

May 11, 2011

May 10 (Bloomberg) — Jason Maynard, an analyst at Wells Fargo Securities, and Om Malik, founder of GigaOM, talk about Microsoft Corp.’s agreement to buy Skype Technologies SA for $8.5 billion. They speak with Emily Chang and Cory Johnson on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg West.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Source: Microsoft Nears $8.5 Billion Deal To Buy Skype

May 10, 2011

May 10, 2011 4:07:18 AM By Nadia Damouni NEW YORK (Reuters) – Microsoft Corp is close to buying web video conferencing service Skype Technologies for $8.5 billion including debt, a source familiar with the situation said, in a deal which would rank as the biggest for the software company. A deal is expected to be announced as early as Tuesday morning, the source said. The source declined to be named because the talks are not public. Microsoft and Skype declined comment. Skype, which had delayed plans for an initial public offering, had recently been looking at other options. Facebook and Google Inc were separately considering a tie-up with Skype, two sources with direct knowledge of the discussions previously told Reuters. Google had held early talks for a joint venture with Skype, the second source said. A source said at the time such a deal could value Skype at $3 billion to $4 billion — less than the value put on it by Microsoft’s interest. Skype’s planned IPO had been expected to raise about $1 billion, several other sources said at the time. Skype was formed in 2003. Ebay Inc bought it in 2005 for $3.1 billion. In 2009, eBay sold a majority stake in Skype to an investor group that included Silver Lake, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and Andreessen Horowitz for $1.9 billion in cash and a $125 million note. EBay retained about a third of the company. Last year, Skype had about 124 million connected users every month by the end of June. But 8.1 million were paying customers, using Skype to make calls to traditional phones at discounted rates. A deal would be Microsoft’s biggest acquisition if it goes ahead, exceeding the $6 billion it paid for online ad agency aQuantive. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are advising Skype, the source said. Microsoft is not using advisers, the source said. Earlier, the Wall Street Journal reported news of the potential deal. (Additional reporting and writing by Megan Davies; Additional reporting by Sakthi Prasad in Bangalore; Editing by Anshuman Daga) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Jamie Court: Do-Not-Track-Online Goes On National Map With Rockefeller Bill

May 9, 2011

U.S. Senator Jay Rockefeller did the American people a great favor today by introducing the Do-Not-Track-Online Act of 2011 . iPhone and Android users should not have to worry about being spied on by their smart phones. We should be able to say no to Google and Facebook when they violate our privacy daily by tracking us online and collecting massive amounts of our private information without our explicit consent. That's why Senator Rockefeller acted today. Rockefeller is Chairman of the Senate Committee On Commerce, Science and Transportation, which has a history of passing important legislation like the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA) and the CAN-SPAM Act. We cannot be stalked as we shop in brick-and-mortar stores. Yet whatever we do online is tracked, usually without our knowledge and consent. The data may help target advertising, but can also be used to make assumptions about people in connection with employment, housing, insurance and financial services; for purposes of lawsuits against individuals; and for government surveillance. Last week the California Senate Judiciary Committee made history as the first legislative body in the nation to debate and move legislation forward that would allow us to say no to any company that wants to track us or our family online without our consent. The committee voted to send the landmark “Do Not Track” bill forward by a 3-2 vote.

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‘Giving Pledge’ Billionaires Gather For First In-Person Meeting

May 9, 2011

What do dozens of American billionaires talk about when they get together? Their topic this week was of course money; not how to make it, but how to give it away. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said Friday that a private gathering was a great chance for the billionaires who have pledged to give away at least half their wealth to meet each other, compare notes, eat and laugh. The media was banned from Thursday’s first meeting of the group that has accepted the giving challenge by Buffett and his friend Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates. Since last June, 69 individuals or couples have made the giving pledge. Buffett knew only about 12 of the 61 people at the dinner at the Miraval Resort in Tucson before the famously gregarious Berkshire Hathaway CEO worked the room and made 40 new friends. “They all more than fulfilled my expectations,” Buffett told The Associated Press in a telephone interview. Melinda Gates, co-chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, said she was delighted by the openness of the virtual strangers. At one point, conversation at her table drifted toward the biggest mistakes people had ever made as philanthropists. “One of the things about being a philanthropist, in many ways it’s rather a lonely job,” said Tashia Morgridge, a retired special education teacher. She works with her husband, Cisco Systems chairman John Morgridge, to give money to improve U.S. education through the Denver-based Morgridge Family Foundation. George Kaiser, a Tulsa, Okla., philanthropist who aids early childhood education and social services programs, said the giving pledge helps philanthropists who don’t want to just throw money at causes and instead want to explore the best ways to invest money to tackle the world’s biggest problems. “Being able to share with other people who are agonizing about the same decisions is extraordinarily useful,” said Kaiser, the chairman of BOK Financial Corp who has been an oil and gas industry executive for four decades. He led a session on applying analytical business practices to philanthropy. The goals of the organization do not include working together to pool philanthropic dollars. Still, the meeting in Tucson that ended Friday included sessions where different philanthropists shared their passion to improve education, the environment and other causes. Philosophies of giving and ideas for collaboration among the billionaires were also shared throughout the event, said Jean Case, CEO of the family foundation started by her and her husband, America Online founder Steve Case. “There’s a strong desire in this group to learn from each other,” said Jean Case, who offered to host the event at their Tucson resort after Melinda Gates talked to her about the possibility of the meeting. The mother of five children also led a session on children and families in philanthropy. Steve Case gave a talk on using social media to encourage giving. All the sessions at the meeting were led by members of the group. Some common themes emerged from the event. The participants are looking to do more impactful, more effective philanthropy and to inspire average people to give money away, Jean Case said. Sharing ideas about giving also took place informally. Melinda Gates said she talked to two people who were devoting money for work on state pension issues and criminal justice – problems Gates had previously not thought about. Chuck Feeney, a New Jersey philanthropist Buffett called the spiritual leader of the group, spoke about his plans to give all his money to charity. “He wants his last check to bounce,” Buffett said. ____ Online: The Giving Pledge: http://givingpledge.org/

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World’s New Most Valuable Brand

May 9, 2011

Apple has overtaken Google as the world’s most valuable brand, ending a four-year reign by the Internet search leader, according to a new study by global brands agency Millward Brown. The iPhone and iPad maker’s brand is now worth $153 billion, almost half Apple’s market capitalization, says the annual BrandZ study of the world’s top 100 brands. Apple’s portfolio of coveted consumer goods propelled it past Microsoft to become the world’s most valuable technology company last year. Peter Walshe, global brands director of Millward Brown, says Apple’s meticulous attention to detail, along with an increasing presence of its gadgets in corporate environments, have allowed it to behave differently from other consumer-electronics makers. “Apple is breaking the rules in terms of its pricing model,” he told Reuters by telephone. “It’s doing what luxury brands do, where the higher price the brand is, the more it seems to underpin and reinforce the desire.” “Obviously, it has to be allied to great products and a great experience, and Apple has nurtured that.” Of the top 10 brands in Monday’s report, six were technology and telecoms companies: Google at number two, IBM at number three, Microsoft at number five, AT&T at number seven and China Mobile at number nine. McDonald’s rose two places to number four, as fast food became the fastest-growing category, Coca-Cola slipped one place to number six, Marlboro was also down one to number eight, and General Electric was number 10. Walshe said demand from China was a major factor in the rise of fast-food brands. “The Chinese have been discovering fast food and it’s such a vast market — Starbucks, McDonald’s… and pizza has hit China,” he said. “The way McDonald’s has reinvented itself, adapted its menus, added healthy options, expanding the times of day it can be visited, for example oatmeal for breakfast… that allied with growth in developing markets has really helped that brand.” Nineteen of the top 100 brands came from emerging markets, up from 13 last year. Facebook entered the top 100 at number 35 with a brand valued at $19.1 billion, while Chinese search engine Baidu rose to number 29 from 46. Toyota reclaimed its position as the world’s most valuable car brand, as it recovered from a bungled 2010 product recall. The survey was carried out before the March earthquake that caused massive disruption to Japanese supply chains. The total value of the top 100 brands rose by 17 percent to $2.4 trillion, as the global economy shifted to growth. Millward Brown takes as a starting point the value that companies put on their own main brands as intangibles in their earnings reports. It combines that with the perceptions of more than 2 million consumers in relevant markets around the world whom it surveys over the course of the year, and then applies a multiple derived from the company’s short-term future growth prospects. The full report is at www.millwardbrown.com/brandz. (Editing by David Cowell) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Tina Wells: The Coming of the Global Mobile

May 7, 2011

Millennials have grown up in this world of instanity, where information, photos, and prices (when they’re shopping) are just one click away. They are also just a security checkpoint and a passport stamp away from almost anywhere in the world, where they can witness firsthand how cultures all over the globe listen (and create) their music and tuck their jeans into their sneakers. How are today’s marketers supposed to keep up with that? How do you keep product available for online distribution when you’re not sure what the next big thing will be — when a hot new item could explode overnight? How do you know how much product to keep in local retail stores when more and more Millennials are shopping online? These supply and demand issues are just the logistical tip of the iceberg in a mountain of marketing issues for making your brand appeal to today’s Global Mobiles. There are things that every product or service can do to make itself more appealing on a global level. First, you have to create a brand with global values. For example, we know that Warholism (the idea that anyone can be famous) is a major trend in the United States, but is it also taking hold abroad? Is reality TV as big in other countries as it currently is here? These are questions you have to ask. What are examples of global values? Things like love, happiness, style, and convenience all play on a global landscape. Second, you must have a recognizable logo. Think about the companies that consistently make it onto Interbrand’s list of the top 10 global brands: Coca-Cola, IBM, Google, Microsoft, and McDonald’s, to name a few. All have recognizable symbols. Think about what your logo signifies to people all over the world. While product names are another element, this area is less restricted since it’s the brand identity that matters most. I love the oft-cited marketing case study of the Chevy Nova, which supposedly sold poorly in Spanish-speaking countries because “no va” literally translates to “no go”. The truth, however, is that the Nova actually performed quite well in some Spanish-speaking countries, such as Argentina, Mexico, and Venezuela. While it’s great marketing fodder, it’s simply not a true story. The truth is that more attention needs to be paid to overall branding approaches, since (as I’ve said several times before) brands that focus on creating loyal groups of consumers and on providing product value can pretty much get through any crisis, complete with customer forgiveness. Third, you should not even think about creating a global brand if your customers cannot instantly connect with you. This connection should happen through a company web site and social networking sites like Facebook, Twitter, Foursquare, Clikthrough, and whatever other online experience is hot at that time. If you want to be global, you must be instant; there is no getting around this. However, an important distinction is that being instant doesn’t mean that you can’t be exclusive. Just look at a brand like Louis Vuitton. It’s extremely exclusive; it’s even been known to allow only a few people into its stores at a time! The company sells its products at select retail locations, and it produces only limited quantities. Yet the brand is everywhere — Twitter, Facebook, and, of course, the company web site. Louis Vuitton spokespeople are athletes, models, activists — people from every walk of life. This company understands the art of the global connection. The fourth point for global brands to keep in mind is that traditional retail locations may not offer you the best solution. Pop-up stores are becoming increasingly popular these days, which might be an effect of the recession, since many malls and shops have tons of empty, available spaces. However, these stores aren’t limited just to malls. Magazines are taking advantage of the trend as well, and publications like Teen Vogue and Self are providing brands with opportunities to interact with their consumers in new and exciting ways. Trade shows and live events also allow consumers to interact with the items that they love. Remember, it’s about the connection, not just the visit to a traditional store. Finally, you have to look for trends globally, not just what’s happening in New York or California. The key to successful brands like Coca-Cola and hip retailer Urban Outfitters is that they are able to track trends globally while applying that information locally. A brand like Abercrombie & Fitch, for example, which is losing some of its U.S. popularity, has found a loyal fan base abroad, where the all American look plays well. Similarly, this country has imported many of its favorite reality shows from abroad; American Idol , Dancing with the Stars , and Big Brother were all launched in England before they were hits in the United States. We even see some universal, cross- cultural values in these shows. Whether you’re American or British, you still love dancing, singing, and family. These have global appeal. Now that we know what matters, it’s important to explore how this new breed of Millennials — or global mobiles, as I like to call them — will buy and consume products. It’s equally important to know which brands are on their radar. That is a topic for a future post!

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FTC Said To Be Making Google ‘The Next Microsoft’

May 2, 2011

The U.S. Federal Trade Commission has reportedly begun to prepare an investigation of Google, according to Bloomberg . The Mountain View web giant has come under scrutiny for its domination of the online search industry. Bloomberg reports that the FTC has allegedly started to tell high-tech companies to get information ready for upcoming inquiry, said “three people familiar with the matter.” Discomfort over Google’s control over search flared following the company’s acquiring ITA Software, a travel data powerhouse. The company outbid other travel sites, who opposed the acquisition . Part of the conditions of the deal, as outlined by the Justice Department mandated that Google must make travel data available to rivals as well as allow the government to look into whether its behavior is unfair. Google already faces antitrust investigations in the European Union . Regulators in South Korea have also been asked to look into the company’s behavior. Officials in Ohio and Wisconsin are considering launching a query for the same reasons, as well. “It could be ‘Google as the next Microsoft,’” Eleanor Fox, a law professor at New York University, told Bloomberg. Microsoft, which itself came under antitrust scrutiny over a decade ago, lodged an official antitrust complaint with the EU. “We have to be careful about letting the current players manipulate the market in such a way that it does tip prematurely [in their favor] and that it hurts rivals,” said FTC commissioner Thomas Rosch in March. “For example, Google is trying to do it though its search methods.” Though Google rules online search and advertising, creating a successful case against the company will hinge upon the determination that the company has used its power to unjustly keep rivals from being able to compete. The senate Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy and Consumer Rights is scheduled to examine Google for its search dominance in the next session of Congress.

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US- Microsoft net up

April 30, 2011

US- Microsoft net up

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Apple Beats Microsoft’s Profits For The First Time In 20 Years

April 29, 2011

For the first time in 20 years, Apple’s quarterly profits were higher than Microsoft’s. Alhough Microsoft’s earnings last quarter were up overall, revenue from the Redmond company’s Windows operating system, a key moneymaker, fell 4.4 percent. The sagging Windows sales were mitigated by Microsoft Office sales, which was Microsoft’s top performing sector for the quarter. Experts attributed the declining Windows sales to the rise of tablet computers, which have cut into the sale of personal computers. While tablets have sold well — especially Apple’s wildly popular iPad, Microsoft has struggled to serve up a viable tablet competitor or tablet operating system. “People could think about the tablet as a replacement for their traditional PC,” said Harry Wang, director of mobile research at Parks Associates. “In some circumstances it could significantly impact PC sales because of cannibalization.” With tablet sales showing no sign of slowing, Microsoft risks losing more and more money if it doesn’t adapt to new patterns of consumer computer buying. Eighty percent of the personal computer market runs Windows, but Microsoft’s share of the tablet market is zero percent, according to Parks Associates, a technology research and consulting firm. When it comes to tablets, Apple, which netted $5.99 billion in revenue last quarter to Microsoft’s $5.23 billion, is the indisputable king. Sales of the iPad, which competitors and critics initially derided as a novelty item, have led Apple to hold onto 75 percent of tablet market share . iPad sales were lower than expected last quarter, but the company noted that it had sold every single iPad it produced, suggesting that demand for the device is still exceptionally high. Experts forecast Apple will ship 45 million iPads in 2011, tripling the 15 million tablets it sold in its nine months out in 2010. Why should Microsoft care? More iPad sales mean fewer PC sales. “Tablets could impact up to 30 percent of PC sales in the US alone.” Harry Wang, director of mobile research at Parks Associates, projected. Even though the tablet market is booming, Microsoft has expressed doubts about investing heavily in the market. In a recent interview , Craig Mundie, Microsoft’s global chief research and strategy officer, said, “I don’t know whether the big screen tablet pad category is going to remain with us or not.” The longer Microsoft waits to enter the tablet market, the harder it will be for the company to crack into an aggressively expanding market, analysts warned. “These things don’t happen over night. They take effort; they take planning,” said Michael Gartenberg, an analyst with Gartner. “They’re going to have to react at an even faster pace if they want to capture the hearts and minds of consumers.” Tablets are not all Microsoft has to worry about. Though it revamped its mobile operating system, Windows Phone 7 , last February, the software was late to the game, according to analysts. Windows Phone 7 arrived three years behind the iPhone, which debuted in 2007 and well after Google’s Android had already gained significant market share. Microsoft has partnered with Nokia in an attempt to reclaim the mobile market, but Nokia itself is quickly losing share to nimbler rivals, many of which use the Android operating system.

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Microsoft Stock Drops In Biggest Fall Since 2009

April 29, 2011

(By Bill Rigby, Reuters) – Microsoft Corp shares fell their most in almost two years on Friday, a day after the software company reported a dip in its Windows operating system sales. The world’s second-largest tech company behind Apple Inc met Wall Street’s profit estimate and beat on overall sales in its earnings report on Thursday. But investors were concerned with lower personal computer sales nagging at Windows, Xbox sales bringing down profit margins and losses in its online business. Microsoft shares were down 4.8 percent at $25.41 in afternoon Nasdaq trading, the biggest one-day percentage fall since July 2009. The shares are back to the level they were at on Monday, before a run-up leading into quarterly earnings. The stock had risen sharply after chip maker Intel Corp forecast revenue above Wall Street estimates, feeding optimism that a dip in PC sales last quarter did not indicate a long-term trend. “Everyone, including myself, pounded the table on the Intel trade,” said BGC Partners analyst Colin Gillis. “And it just didn’t happen.” The stock is down 18 percent in the last 12 months, compared to a 16 percent gain in the Nasdaq. (Reporting by Bill Rigby. Editing by Robert MacMillan) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Video: Ursillo Says Microsoft Must Capitalize on Tablet Market

April 29, 2011

April 29 (Bloomberg) — Tony Ursillo, an analyst at Loomis Sayles & Co, talks about Microsoft Corp.’s third-quarter earnings reported yesterday and the need for the software maker to “capitalize” on the tablet computer market. Microsoft reported quarterly sales in the Windows division that missed analysts’ predictions as consumers shunned its products in favor of tablets such as Apple Inc.’s iPad. Ursillo speaks with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Wall Street Stocks Slip On Fears Of Inflation’s Effect Taking Place

April 25, 2011

U.S. stocks fell on Monday on signs some corporate outlooks were being strained by concerns over higher raw material costs, including consumer products maker Kimberly-Clark Corp. The market’s decline in a low-volume session followed some strong earnings last week, which helped pushed the Dow to a closing high for the year. The S&P 500 has moved to the top end of its recent trading range where it is facing resistance. Kimberly-Clark (KMB.N) sank 2.9 percent to $64.13 and was one of the S&P 500′s top percentage decliners after it cut the low end of its full-year outlook, saying the cost of pulp and other goods were rising more than twice as much as it had expected. The Kleenex tissue maker is one of the companies most exposed to rising commodity costs because its products contain oil-based materials and paper. Johnson Controls Inc (JCI.N) fell 3.3 percent to $39.38 after the company, one of the world’s largest auto suppliers, said its fiscal third-quarter results would be hit by a drop in car production following the earthquake in Japan. “There are some legitimate inflation concerns among investors related to raw material prices, which could put pressure on margins later in the year,” said John Carey, portfolio manager of Pioneer Investment Management in Boston, which has about $260 billion in assets under management. Of S&P 500 companies that have reported results so far, 75 percent beat analysts’ expectations. That is just above the average over the past four quarters but well above the average of 62 percent since 1994, according to Thomson Reuters data. Helping the Nasdaq, SanDisk Corp (SNDK.O) rose 1.6 percent to $49.81 after raising its 2011 margin outlook late on Thursday. The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 34.40 points, or 0.28 percent, at 12,471.59. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX was down 2.89 points, or 0.22 percent, at 1,334.49. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up just 0.10 of a point, or unchanged on a percentage basis, at 2,820.26. Energy and materials companies’ shares ranked among the weakest of the session, with the S&P Energy Index .GSPE down 0.7 percent and the S&P Materials Index down 0.6 percent. Crude oil futures prices fell after hitting their highest level since September 2008 earlier in the session, while silver reversed course after a sharp rally. The CBOE Volatility Index .VIX, known as the VIX, rose 7.8 percent after falling last week to its lowest level since 2007. This week is another hectic one for earnings with 180 S&P 500 companies set to report, including Amazon.com (AMZN.O), Coca-Cola Co (KO.N), Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) and Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N). The week’s agenda includes a two-day meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policymaking committee on Tuesday and Wednesday. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold the first of four annual press conferences on Wednesday after the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting ends. Investors will look for clues about the direction of monetary policy when the Fed’s bond buying program ends in June. Traders noted that activity would likely be subdued as many major European markets remain closed over the long Easter weekend. About 2.92 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq as of midday, below average for this point in the session. (Reporting by Ryan Vlastelica; Editing by Jan Paschal) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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PARTNERS: Nokia, Microsoft Ink Major Deal

April 21, 2011

By Tarmo Virki, European Technology Correspondent (HELSINKI) – Nokia Oyj’s earnings fell less than expected in the first quarter and the company signed a final agreement to start using Microsoft Corp software, sending its shares 3 percent higher. But gains were capped by the company’s forecast for profits to fall in coming quarters, due in part to Japan’s earthquake which hit component supplies across the technology sector. Underlying earnings per share fell to 0.13 euros in the three months through March from 0.14 a year earlier, beating analysts’ average forecast for 0.10. Nokia’s market share fell to 29 percent from 33 percent as nimbler Asian rivals ate into its dominant position in cheaper phones and it continued to lose out in more expensive smartphones to Apple Inc and others. To turn around its smartphone fortunes, Nokia’s new Chief Executive Stephen Elop in February unveiled a deal to start using Microsoft software instead of its own Symbian platform. Nokia said the deal enables it to cut annual costs by around 1 billion euros ($1.5 billion). Labour union officials said they expect Nokia to start lay-off talks next week. “Finalization of the agreement with Microsoft means Nokia can now focus on execution, but margin guidance underlines that difficult times lie ahead as it transitions the portfolio,” said analyst Geoff Blaber at CCS Insight. Nokia’s key phone unit reported an operating profit margin of 9.8 percent for January-March, well ahead of analysts forecast of 8.6 percent, but said for the full year the margin would fall to within a 6 to 9 percent range. Analysts on average expected the margin to drop to 8.5 percent. NIL-NIL Shares in Nokia were 3 percent higher at 6.11 euro by 6:57 a.m. EDT, outperforming 1.3 percent gain in the STOXX Europe 600 Technology Index. The stock remains well down on a record 65 euros seen in 2000. “It’s a bit of a no-score draw really. You’ve got a solid set of numbers but guidance is bad,” said Richard Windsor, global technology specialist at Nomura. “You’ve got a little bit of relief going on today but it probably doesn’t have legs in it.” Nokia forecast second-quarter sales at its phone unit would fall to between 6.1 and 6.6 billion euros, well below analysts’ average forecast of 6.9 billion, partly due to component shortages stemming from the March earthquake in Japan. “We expect these factors and their negative impact on our mobile devices volumes to continue not only during the second quarter 2011 but also through the third quarter 2011 at least,” Nokia said in a statement. Despite its bargaining power analysts say Nokia is likely to be among the phone makers worst hit by the disruption to supplies from last month’s devastating Japanese earthquake. It makes 450 million phones a year, which means quick and big changes in component supply are difficult. Nokia’s smaller rival Sony Ericsson said this week there were shortages of displays, batteries, camera modules and some printed circuit boards. Nokia’s telecom network gear arm Nokia Siemens Networks reported a surprise profit for the quarter and said Chinese regulators had approved its $975 million acquisition of Motorola Solutions’ gear business, clearing the last major hurdle for the deal to go through. The deal, which Nokia Siemens expects to close on April 29, will make the venture the second-largest globally and give it better access to the North American market. (Additional reporting by Terhi Kinnunen in Helsinki, with Georgina Prodhan in London and Mia Shanley and Simon Johnson in Stockholm; Editing by David Holmes) ($1=.6850 Euro) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions

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Video: Wood Says Nokia’s `Radical’ Plan Offers No Instant Boost

April 21, 2011

April 21 (Bloomberg) — Ben Wood, an analyst at CCS Insight, talks about Apple Inc’s smartphone sales and Nokia Oyj’s software partnership with Microsoft Corp. He spoke with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse” before Nokia reported a 1.4 percent decline in first-quarter profit.

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Eric K. Clemons: The Real and Inevitable Harm From Vertical Integration of Search Engine Providers Into Sales and Distribution

April 20, 2011

This is the second installment in a three-part series on the Department of Justice, Google, and the Consent Decree. Read part one here . A proper discussion of the benefits and limitations of the recent Consent Decree between the Department of Justice and Google, concerning Google’s acquisition of ITA, needs to begin with a discussion of appropriate measures for potential harm to the competitive process and to potential competitors. The Decree attempts to ensure that current users of ITA’s travel industry software will continue to have access to the latest revisions at commercially reasonable prices, and that Google will continue to invest in ITA’s software rather than developing proprietary offerings for itself. Unfortunately, the Decree does not address the greatest danger, which is not that Google will deny competitors like Orbitz and Kayak access to ITA’s software, but rather that Google will deny competitors access to the consumers that they all are seeking to serve. The real danger is that search has become an essential facility, that Google could deny competitors access to this essential facility, and that they could do so in a manner that keeps consumers happy. As we have addressed previously , it is possible to harm the competitive process, to reduce consumer welfare, and to do so in a manner that is not obvious to consumers. What Form Could Harm Take? How can consumers be harmed by search without knowing it immediately? More specifically, how can consumers be harmed by the Consent Decree, which allows Google to integrate into the provision of services, improve consumer convenience, and offers “no-click” rather than one-click solutions? Interestingly, the most offensive examples of potential consumer harm come from Microsoft’s Bing, rather than from Google. Consider the following set of search results. I see four paid search results, still called “sponsored sites” instead of the more accurate and explicit “ads” label now used by Google. I always ignore ads on search, so I go to the first organic result, which is nicely highlighted with a huge basketball. I click on the basketball … and … … I can buy Lakers tickets without even leaving Bing. How convenient is that? Well, yes. And how what chance to competing ticket sellers have to reach customers? Notice that this site actually appears above the Lakers own site; is that the natural organic ranking? Do more customers historically buy Lakers tickets from Microsoft than from the Lakers? Will Microsoft offer this service to the Lakers without charge, now and forever? At its worst, hotels.com was charging hotels a 30% commission. If Bing imposes excessive charges on the Lakers, or on all basketball teams, it can do so in a way that will keep consumers happy; they don’t see need to see these charges anywhere. But a high surcharge on distribution is a form of invisible tax, and it will be passed on to consumers. This is an example of a third-party payer mechanism ; it is expensive, not subject to market discipline, and yet seems to improve consumer welfare because its harmful effects are quite invisible. One click, top organic spot, should direct a great deal of traffic to Bing’s ticketing agency. What faster and more convenient than having Bing’s site come up after a single click? What about having it come up as the only response? The first time I search for flights from Philadelphia to Orlando I am directed to an effectively integrated flight site, much as I was directed to the integrated site for Lakers tickets. But the second time I do the search the only thing that shows up in the search box, even before I finish typing the query, is Bing’s travel site. What if instead of Bing this had been Google, with its 65% of US market share and its 95% of EU market share? What could it do with this integration? Surely, it could keep consumers happy, with convenience, among other things. And surely, it could grow its share. Then, it could use its market power to demand discounts, which it would share with consumers, much as hotels.com did. Ultimately, completing websites would lose importance, and indeed they might fail, further increasing Google’s market power. Then, Google could demand excessive commissions, perhaps as high as the 30% commission once charged by hotels.com. Consumers would not complain; they would be receiving apparent discounts, discounts below hotels and airlines published prices. Indeed, consumers would be happy with the added convenience and lower price. Notice the progression: (1) Consumers are offered increased convenience at no visible cost to themselves and are happy. (2) The competitive process is harmed. (3) Third parties, online travel sites that want to be found, or hotels and other actual travel service providers that want to be found, pay higher fees, although these fees are never directly visible to happy consumers. (4) These higher fees inevitably increase the operating expenses of the entire travel industry, and inevitably increase consumer prices, while remaining invisible to consumers in the third-party payer business model , and while consumers remain content and oblivious to harm. It really would not possible for the hotels’ and airlines’ own direct distribution sites to compete, or for travel integration sites like Kayak or Orbitz to compete, unless consumers were willing to examine and compare the offerings of each URL separately rather than using search at all. Not only is there no limit to what Google could charge travel sites to “not be not found,” which is the problem existed before Google’s move into search; now Google would have a reason to hide some or all of these sites no matter what they are willing to pay. For this reason, we believe that search engines should be forbidden to engage in vertical integration into comparison of goods and services, or into direct sale of goods and services. We feel that this should be blocked irrespective of the mechanism used to create the vertical integration; search engine providers should not be allowed to develop this vertical integration internally nor acquire it through acquisition, regardless of assurances offered to regulators of fair pricing or Chinese walls.

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