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Gilbert B. Kaplan: The Manufacturing Sector as Sacrificial Lamb

May 27, 2010

The outcome of today’s Security and Economic Dialogue (S & ED) talks in Beijing is discouraging for those of us who want to see an immediate effect on Main Street. No specific movement has taken place on currency issues. China’s President Hu says he will take action on currency, but he doesn’t say what action he will take or when he will take it. China’s currency is undervalued by about 40%. It is unlikely that anything he is even contemplating would close that gap. And while we wait for him to make up his mind, more jobs in the U. S. will be lost to China. The United States is playing defense everywhere in the world. Militarily we are losing influence and appear to be losing wars. Diplomatically our powers of persuasion are waning. And in international trade, jobs are moving off-shore, we have no sustained manufacturing policy, and the production sectors in other countries’ economies are growing faster than ours. There is certainly a great effort to solve the military and diplomatic problems, but what are we doing on trade? President Obama is aware of the issue, but the solutions are hard to find and are not being articulated. To me, a large part of the problem is that industrial growth in this country, indeed what used to be called industrial policy, takes a second chair to almost every other policy in Washington. The biggest example of that right now is this failure to address currency undervaluation in China, in a forthright and immediate fashion. It has now been years since the problem has been identified. When I served in the United States government, I heard regularly that we could never deal with the Japan trade issues aggressively because we needed our military bases in Japan in order to stand up to the then-Soviet Union. Now we hear we can’t stand up to China because we need their help on Iran and North Korea or on global warming issues. But we can’t keep paying for military and diplomatic victories–assuming we are even achieving these–by trading away our economic prowess. Put simply, the cost is too high and we don’t have enough chips left. As Clyde Prestowitz puts it in his new book, The Betrayal of American Prosperity , “the United States fell into the habit–and the addiction continues today–of making economic concessions in order to obtain geopolitical objectives.” He also notes that the blind adherence to laissez faire economics and trade policy was not the way we became a great power and world technology leader. Indeed, the time when America emerged as a world leader–broadly the beginning through the middle of the twentieth century–was when the U. S. government intervened in the economy and actively supported U. S. manufacturing. Why aren’t we able or willing to do that today? I think the biggest single reason is the failure of the policy community to come up with a sustained and powerful rationale for doing so. There are voices out there calling for this renaissance: Prestowitz, many elected representatives on Capital Hill, Leo Gerard and other union leaders. But for every one of these there are more on the other side, repeating stale mantras calling for more work on the Doha Round, saying we should only talk softly to China while they continue to engage in mercantilist policies, and standing up for a trading system that is not reciprocal. What we need is a renaissance of American production. We need to make things in this country and balance the terms of trade or our future, and even more our children’s future, will be very dim. As a country we will go further in debt and we will not have the productive capacity to work our way out of it. How do we create this renaissance? First, we need to create a sustained policy dialogue that will challenge the current assumptions and develop alternatives. To this end, I plan to sponsor a Conference calling for the revival of American manufacturing which will meet in early fall, bringing together the key players on the issue, companies in the U. S., trade associations concerned about this issue, labor leaders, and policy and legal thinkers. This will be under the rubric of the Committee to Support U. S. Trade Laws, an organization devoted to keeping American trade laws strong, of which I am the President. As part of this effort, we are coming up with new legislation which will strengthen the U. S. trade laws, particularly in the area of ending evasion and fraud. It is amazing that the U. S. has allowed foreign producers to take advantage of weaknesses in enforcement powers under these laws for so long. The conference and our policy analysis needs to lead into 2010 House and Senate elections, and make it clear that, quite simply, we are not going to take it any more. The loss of jobs and manufacturing needs to be an election issue. We cannot walk away from manufacturing and remain any kind of great power in the future. Candidates who support this goal of returning production to the U. S. should be supported by the American electorate. Those who soft pedal it should not. Indeed this was a key issue in the special election in Western Pennsylvania in which Mark Critz was elected to John Murtha’s seat, and where he stood up strongly against the off-shoring of U. S. jobs. Making manufacturing a sacrificial lamb has got to come to an end as part of the 2010 elections.

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Don McNay: Money, Sex and Hot (Broke) Messes

May 16, 2010

Throw open the shade that covers my mind I’m going to touch I’ve got to believe The bell tolls for me I, I want to testify – Melissa Etheridge Maybe mistakes are what make our fate… without them what would shape our lives? – Carrie Bradshaw (Sarah Jessica Parker) in Sex and the City Sometime in the 1980′s, Alan Abelson, the editor of Money Magazine, said that money was “the new sex.” There is one distinct difference. Many people talk about sex. There are hundreds of television shows, chat rooms, and web sites devoted to sex. Americans still have a hard time talking about money. Especially their own money. Sometimes I think I’ve read almost every financial “self-help” book that has ever been written. Most say the say thing: Have a budget, live within your means and invest for the long term. Great advice, but it’s like telling people they need to lose weight. Knowing it and doing it are two different things. One of my irritations is that many financial writers have a holier-than-thou attitude. People looking to solve financial problems are also looking for empathy. Instead, the message they often receive from books about money is “I’m OK and you’re an idiot.” Even commentators such as Dave Ramsey, who talks about his bankruptcy and how it got him to live the “no debt” philosophy of Christian financial writer Larry Burkett, sometimes comes off as preachy and condescending. What struck me about the book, Hot (Broke) Messes, is that the author, Nancy Trejos, is incredibly candid and allows us to learn from expensive lessons given to her by life. It’s hard for the average person to admit mistakes. Imagine Trejos’ situation. She made her mistakes while working as a personal finance columnist for the Washington Post. The mantra in Washington and the financial world is to always act like you’re 10 feet tall and bulletproof. Never admit your mistakes, even if those mistakes cost billions of dollars or thousands of lives. Trejos went in the opposite direction. She put her problems on the street and let her readers view her financial rebuilding process. Nancy is a 33 year-old graduate of Georgetown University. She grew up in Queens, after her family immigrated from Columbia. Her financial situation two years ago seemed typical of many in her age group. Lots of student loans, lots of credit card debt, an upside down car payment and a mortgage that she couldn’t afford. She was at absolute rock bottom and in total denial. The mortgage was on a townhouse bought with a live-in boyfriend. After racking up a financial hit and some legal bills, she learned a lesson that all singles should know. Never mix business transactions and love, unless you are completely and legally married. She hit bottom and found a financial counselor who helped her set goals and stick to a strict budget. It was the financial equivalent of a personal trainer. Along with her individual saga, Trejos references many financial commentators, such as Joe Nocera and Dr. Mary Gresham, an Atlanta money management psychologist I intend to learn more about. Trejos made serious life adjustments, but not the extreme “rice and beans” program that some counselors advocate. She is in a constant search for financial moderation, while living in one of America’s most expensive cities. Her story has a semi-happy ending. I spoke to her recently and she said all her debt is paid off, except for her student loans. A huge step forward for her. Her book, with a hot pink cover, has a target audience of younger women (reading it in a coffee shop had to put a dent in my macho image) but both sexes and every age group can benefit. There are lots of people, in every demographic, who have big debts and major financial issues. Like people who have problems with booze, sex or drugs, the way for them to find financial salvation is to make an inventory of their wrongs and start doing something about them. Like Nancy Trejos did, it’s time to testify.

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Larry Summers Defends Record On Derivatives During Clinton Administration

May 16, 2010

Last month, Bill Clinton told ABC News that his former Treasury Secretaries, Robert Rubin and Larry Summers, gave him wrong advice on derivatives, and that he was wrong to take it. Though Clinton quickly walked back the remark , it continues to reverberate around Washington. Today, on CNN, Fareed Zakaria asked Summers about Clinton’s comment and whether he’d changed his mind about derivatives. Summers responded by saying that, like Keynes, “when conditions change, I change my views,” and he defended his record during the Clinton administration: Credit default swaps were in their infancy in the 1990s. There was no large market in them, and yet we see how much damage they did. It’s a very different kind of need that’s been pointed out and why we’ve worked so hard to strengthen derivatives regulation. To take just one example, we’ve seen what damage can be done by leveraging. In the 90s, as secretary of the Treasury, I warned about the dangers of the leverage associated with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Those dangers have become more pervasive over the last 10 years. So I think there has always been a case, and one I have always tried to make, for regulation, but that case has certainly gotten stronger, given what has happened.

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Citigroup Says Ex-Employee Told Deutsche Bank Secrets

May 3, 2010

By Andrea Tan May 3 (Bloomberg) — Citigroup Inc. has sued Gautam Hazarika , a former Singapore-based director in its global markets unit, accusing him of handing confidential information to Deutsche Bank AG before joining the German bank. Deutsche Bank’s head of corporate flow sales for Asia, excluding Japan, denied the allegations and is today scheduled to ask Singapore’s High Court to set aside an order allowing Citigroup to search his apartment, car and home computer. Hazarika was in “flagrant breach” of his employment contract and duties to Citigroup by sending e-mails containing trade secrets to Deutsche Bank , Standard Chartered Plc and his personal account, the New York-based lender said in its Nov. 30 lawsuit. Deutsche Bank isn’t a defendant in the Citigroup suit. Citigroup’s suit comes after Merrill Lynch & Co. sued Deutsche Bank for allegedly raiding its bankers and misappropriating trade secrets last year and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc fired its Singapore-based chief currency trader in May last year for sending e-mails allegedly containing confidential data. The cases highlight the intense rivalry among banks for bankers who can “bring across a decent book of clients,” said Siraj Omar, head of litigation at Premier Law LLC in Singapore, who isn’t involved in the suit. “The idea is to make things as difficult as possible for the bankers who are leaving, which is only logical from the banks’ perspective.” Citigroup Probe Citigroup started an investigation after Toby Frei , its head of foreign currency bank sales for Asia Pacific, heard that Hazarika had “given Deutsche Bank everything” when socializing with unidentified officials from the Frankfurt-based lender on Nov. 16, court filings showed. Hazarika was also exploring a possible position with Standard Chartered, according to the documents. “There’s no way I can show that the allegations are untrue” unless the Deutsche Bank officials are identified and confirm the statement, Hazarika said in his affidavit. “It may well even have been a joke or a tease.” Hazarika worked for Citigroup for 15 years, starting in India in 1994 before moving to Singapore in 2002, the court papers showed. He joined Deutsche Bank as the Singapore-based head of corporate flow sales for Asia, excluding Japan, from Citigroup, where he was Asia sales head of transactional foreign exchange, Deutsche Bank said in a Dec. 1 statement. Citigroup’s Singapore-based spokesman Adam Rahman declined to comment, as did Deutsche Bank’s Mark Bennewith . Hazarika couldn’t immediately be reached for comment. ‘Intimate Knowledge’ Hazarika had access and “intimate knowledge” of confidential information, including customer details and business strategies, Citigroup said in its court filing. The bank said it stands to “lose its competitive edge” if the information leaks out. Hazarika’s “extensive experience” in transaction banking and foreign exchange will help Deutsche Bank as it increasingly focuses on Asia, Daniel Mamadou , co-head of DCM and Corporate Coverage for Asia, excluding Japan, said in the Dec. 1 statement. There was “nothing sinister” in the e-mails Hazarika sent to himself nor did the clients’ list sent to Deutsche Bank contain privileged banking information, his court filing shows. E-mails sent to the personal account were to facilitate working after office hours, Hazarika said in his affidavit. “In my mind, I had done nothing wrong,” Hazarika said in the papers. “The e-mails I forwarded to my personal e-mail account would not have caused the plaintiff any damage tomorrow, or the day after or at any time in the future.” Citigroup is represented by Drew & Napier LLC and Tan Rajah & Cheah is acting for Hazarika. The case is Citicorp Investment Bank (Singapore) Ltd. v Gautam Iswar Hazarika S1008/2009 in the Singapore High Court. To contact the reporter on this story: Andrea Tan in Singapore at atan17@bloomberg.net

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Mary Bottari: USAA Members Can Support Financial Reform

April 29, 2010

As a consumer advocate and a military brat, I have long been a huge fan and a lifelong member of USAA. USAA is an insurance company that was set up to assist military families and their dependents. It has a reputation for low rates and great service, but I am disappointed in the firm this week for its clumsy foray into the world of lobbying. USAA was founded in 1922 by a group of U.S. Army officers to self-insure each other after they were turned down by insurance firms for being a “high-risk” group. USAA is a Fortune 500 firm, but it has an unusual structure under Texas law that allows it to be an insurance company with a banking arm and an investment arm. Since there are no shareholders, profits are retained to maintain the institutions financial strength or they are returned to the members. When I got in my first car accident last year, USAA was on the case within the hour and had my car repaired and all issues taken care of within two weeks. But as Reuters has reported, USAA has taken a wrong turn on financial reform. As a client, I along with millions of others received an unusual email from the firm entitled “USAA CEO requests your help today.” The email argued that the firm should be exempt from provisions in the financial reform bill being debated in Congress because it would “Prevent USAA from managing the association’s portfolio as we have for the past 87 years” and “Limit our ability to return money to our members.” Yikes. They asked me to call my member of Congress and tell them to exempt USAA from the “Volcker Rule.” Tens of thousands of responsible USAA members promptly did so. I am asking my fellow USAA members to pause and consider why every consumer group in America is a big backer of the Volcker Rule. USAA Members Should Support the Volcker Rule The idea was developed by former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker as a modern way to restore depression-era “Glass-Steagall” consumer protections that set up a firewall between Wall Street gambling and Main Street banking. The spotlight in Washington has been on Wall Street vultures who used their proprietary trading desks to bet that the housing market would collapse. They bet on catastrophe and won, but in the process they mislead their investors and their reckless trading amplified the crisis for the rest of us. Now those same firms have been reorganized and enjoy the backing of the federal government and American taxpayers. In other words, now when they gamble taxpayers are on the hook for their lousy bets. Americans for Financial Reform , an organization made up of 250 public interest groups fighting to crack down on Wall Street, believe this is a impossible situation that should not continue, thus they support the Volcker Rule. The Volcker rule separates most forms of proprietary trading from the federal guarantee. In other words, you can gamble, but if you do it you have to do it with your own money. The Volcker Rule is a critical reform to the financial system. No one thinks USAA engaged in they type of reckless trading that caused the crisis, but the fact that such rules may also require smaller, well-managed firm like USAA to slightly change their organizational structure is not a sufficient reason in my mind to give USAA an exemption. The next thing you know other firms will start to organize themselves to look like USAA and the whole fiasco starts all over again. But for those of you who think an exemption is the best way to go, there is a solution that allows for a fix without undermining the rules that rein in the Goldman Sachs and AIGs of the world. Concerned USAA Members Can Get Behind the Merkley-Levin Amendment Rather than taking a position that is considered by some as a vote “against” reform, USAA members can support meaningful financial reform. Tell you Senator that you support an amendment proposed by Sens. Merkley and Levin. The Merkley-Levin amendment would allow an insurance company like USAA whose trading desk is subject to state level regulation to continue its insurance business without being subject to the Volcker Rule restrictions on holding a bank. However, if an insurance company also has a separate hedge fund, private equity fund, or some other Wall Street entity that is not regulated by the state insurance regulator like AIG did, then it would be subject to the restrictions. USAA members can support USAA and support reform. Dare I say, it could be a win win for all of us? Learn more: read Americans for Financial Reform’s letter on the amendment here . See Americans for Financial Reform’s Open Letter to USAA members below. *************************************************************************** An Open Letter to USAA Members: If you are one of the 300 million Americans who have been affected by the financial crisis – if your family has lost a job or retirement savings, or if you’ve seen state budget cuts and foreclosures in your community – then financial reform is for you. But financial lobbyists have spent $1.4 million a day trying to kill a bill to hold them accountable, and everyday Americans don’t have lobbyists to make their support for financial reform heard. That’s why we’re concerned. Senators can interpret the calls from USAA members as opposition to strong reform, an invitation to carve out loopholes for every lobbyist, or worse yet–opposition to the bill overall. It’s important to get the facts first. Q: Why would “the Volcker Rule” affect USAA? A: Because USAA is an insurance company that owns a bank, it may be subject to the Volcker Rule’s limits on companies doing “proprietary” trading, or trading for the company’s own profit, when they also own federally-insured banks. The Rule is designed to stop loosely-regulated, large Wall Street firms like AIG (also an insurance company) from taking high-risk gambles with our savings in ways that don’t benefit us, the customers. For years now, banks have been increasingly looking to Wall Street–not Main Street–for investments. That has meant riskier investments, huge bonuses, and ultimately, a financial crash that left taxpayers with the bill. But since USAA is a well-regulated company that invests premiums for the benefit of its customers, it is seeking an amendment to clarify that it is exempt from the Rule. Q: What can we do to help? A: Senators Merkley and Levin have created the right amendment to exempt USAA from these limitations. They clarify that the Rule is targeted at the AIGs of the world, not the USAAs. That’s why we urge you to support the right amendment – because supporting just any amendment could open up a loophole big enough for AIG. Tell your Senator that you support the Merkley-Levin amendment to the Volcker Rule: • It would allow an insurance company like USAA that has good state level regulation to continue its insurance business without being subject to the Volcker Rule restrictions on holding a bank. However, if an insurance company also has a separate hedge fund, private equity fund, or some other Wall Street entity that is not regulated by the state insurance regulator (think AIG), then it would be subject to the restrictions. And while you’re at it, tell your Senator that you support strong financial reform that holds Wall Street accountable, protects consumers and taxpayers, and helps prevent another financial crisis. The bill would: • Bring derivatives into a transparent stock-exchange style market so that speculators can no longer make huge, risky and secret bets with our retirement accounts, pensions, and college savings. • End the era of “too big to fail” banks — by restoring the separation between commercial banks that take deposits, make loans and receive federal backstops from investment activities that carry different risks, and by setting up an orderly system for dismantling failed financial institutions so that those entities are treated to a “wind down”, not a bailout. • Create a new, independent and accountable Consumer Financial Protection Agency with broad authority to make sure payday lenders, auto dealers, mortgage companies and others who fell between the cracks of the old regulatory world are held to new standards of fairness that prevent tricks and traps in the fine print, kickbacks, and other hard-to-find “gotcha’s”. • Require venture capital and private equity fund advisers to comply with the new requirements to register with the SEC that hedge fund managers will meet. • Give shareholders a stronger voice in the selection of the boards of directors and the executive pay policies of the companies they own. • Establish a duty for brokers and insurance agents recommending securities, annuities and other investments to act in the best interests of the customers to whom they are making recommendations, and • Hold credit rating agencies to higher standards – by making them more accountable to investors and the SEC – so that they can’t escape responsibility for the “buy” recommendations so many investors rely on. Sincerely, Americans for Financial Reform

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Brown `Bigoted’ Comment Undermines Trust Argument Going Into Final Debate

April 28, 2010

By Kitty Donaldson and Thomas Penny April 29 (Bloomberg) — Gordon Brown is aiming in tonight’s final leaders’ debate to convince U.K. voters that only his Labour Party can be trusted to safeguard the economy. Yesterday, already fighting for his political life, he made his job harder. The prime minister was forced to apologize, calling himself a “penitent sinner,” after being overheard calling a widow and self-described Labour supporter in northwest England “bigoted” following a disagreement over immigration. “For Brown, the last throw of the dice tonight was going to be ‘I may be flawed in presentation but you can trust me,’” said Andrew Hawkins , chairman of London-based pollster ComRes Ltd. “That has been undermined. Take away his potency on trust and you have taken away about his only asset.” Brown has been running third behind the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in voter preference in most recent polls. Still, some pollsters have forecast that Labour will win a plurality of seats in Parliament. Yesterday’s incident may benefit the Liberal Democrats because wavering Brown supporters may turn to that party, Hawkins said. This would increase the chances of a so-called hung Parliament in which no party wins a majority of seats. That prospect may unsettle investors on concern that a government lacking a majority would be too weak to fix Britain’s record budget deficit. The pound has dropped about 2 percent against the dollar since Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg was judged by polls to have won the first TV debate on April 15. ‘Preposterous’ With neither Brown nor Conservative leader David Cameron set to win a majority, Clegg may be able to name his price for backing one of the other parties. The Liberal Democrat leader said April 25 it would be “preposterous” for Brown to remain premier if Labour finishes third in the popular vote. A daily YouGov Plc poll for The Sun newspaper released last night showed Conservative support gaining 1 percentage point to 34 percent, while the Liberal Democrats rose 3 points to 31 percent and Labour slipped 2 points to 27 percent. YouGov questioned 1,530 voters April 27 and yesterday. That would give the Conservatives 259 lawmakers, 67 short of a majority, Labour 251 and Clegg’s party 109, according to the seat calculator on the U.K. Polling Report Web site. Forty-six percent of Labour supporters said they might change their mind, according to an Ipsos Mori poll published April 23, and almost half of all voters have yet to make a final decision. Economic Focus The economy will be the focus of the first half of tonight’s debate in Birmingham, central England. Labour officials had been counting on the event giving Brown a platform to talk about his record in tackling the financial crisis and to press his claim that only his party can be trusted to ensure a continued recovery. “The person with the most to lose is Gordon Brown because his job is on the line,” said Paul Whitely, professor of government at Essex University. “Brown will reiterate that the Tories will put the economy at risk and he is right to do that, but it’s not very easy.” Brown’s debate preparations were thrown into disarray yesterday when he was campaigning in Rochdale, near Manchester, a district Labour is aiming to win from the Liberal Democrats. The prime minister was confronted by Gillian Duffy, 66, who complained about levels of immigration and difficulties experienced by people who are unable to work in claiming state benefits. ‘Eastern Europeans’ “You can’t say anything about the immigrants,” she told him. “All these eastern Europeans coming in — where are they flocking from?”     Immigration is the second-most important topic for voters, with 29 percent saying it is one of the biggest issues facing Britain today, according to an Ipsos Mori poll of 977 voters between April 9 and 15. No margin of error was given. The poll rated the economy as most important, cited by 55 percent. “She was just a sort of bigoted woman who said she used to be Labour,” Brown, 59, said to an aide after getting back in his car. “That was a disaster. Who put me with that woman?” The incident “crystallized widespread doubts about Brown, that he is grumpy and misanthropic,” said Bill Jones , professor of politics at Liverpool Hope University. The prime minister has thrown pens and a stapler at staff, and once shoved a laser printer off a desk in a rage, according to one former adviser. Another aide was warned to watch out for “flying Nokias” when he joined Brown’s team. In February, Brown denied he ordered his aides to undermine Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling in 2008. Darling said “the forces of hell were unleashed” from Brown’s office after he gave an interview saying Britain faced the worst recession in 60 years. “Labour is at a point of vulnerability and can’t afford to be hemorrhaging votes at this stage,” said Mark Wickham-Jones , a professor of politics at Bristol University. “One of the consequences of this gaffe is that rather than talking about the economy they will spend the next few days talking about immigration.” To contact the reporters on this story: Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net ; Thomas Penny in London at tpenny@bloomberg.net .

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Bankers Would Say `Anything’ to Get High Rating, Former S&P Analyst Says

April 26, 2010

By Elliot Blair Smith April 26 (Bloomberg) — Just past midnight on May 3, 2005, Standard & Poor’s analyst Chui Ng e-mailed co-workers to broker a solution to demands by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. bankers that he said violated two or more of the ratings company’s internal guidelines. Goldman Sachs was adding $200 million in debt at the “last minute” to a $1.5 billion bond pool called Adirondack Ltd., Ng wrote. That meant the New York investment bank would originate 13 percent of the pool itself, two-and-a-half times the 5 percent limit set by S&P. Goldman Sachs also balked at Ng’s request to pay in advance for an insurance policy known as a credit default swap, which was being used to create the additional debt obligation. The e-mails from Ng, who negotiated a compromise on Goldman Sachs’s requests, provide a rare window into the back-and-forth between the bank and a rating company assessing the risks in a financial product linked to subprime mortgages . The exchange was among 581 pages of private communications released last week by Senate investigators. Ng, who no longer works in the rating business, said in a telephone interview April 23 that while the Senate documents contain an “incomplete record,” they show how banks pressured credit raters to lower standards as they created collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, during the housing boom. ‘Strong-Arm’ “The bankers would say anything to get what they needed into their deals,” Ng, 47, said. “Goldman is very good at looking at every deal; every CDO that’s ever been issued.” Ng said the perception among professionals in the ratings business was that the bank had a team that would look for “inconsistencies across different deals and use that to strong- arm Moody’s, Fitch and S&P to change their criteria.” Asked about Ng’s comments, Goldman Sachs spokesman Michael DuVally said in an e-mail, “Goldman Sachs and others relied upon the rating agencies to supply independent analysis and ratings.” He declined to elaborate. S&P spokesman Chris Atkins declined to comment for this story. Moody’s Corp, Fitch Inc., a unit of Paris-based Fimalac S.A., and S&P, a unit of McGraw-Hill Cos., are the three largest rating firms in global debt markets. Senator Carl Levin , a Michigan Democrat who is chairman of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, said at a panel hearing April 23 that the raters compromised “their analysis, their independence and their reputation for reliability. And they did it for money.” Abacus The SEC sued Goldman Sachs on April 16, alleging it had defrauded investors when selling debt tied to mortgages on another deal known as Abacus 2007-AC1. The SEC alleges that Goldman Sachs and executive director Fabrice Tourre failed to inform investors that a hedge fund led by billionaire John Paulson played a role in choosing Abacus securities that Paulson was betting would fail. Goldman Sachs denies wrongdoing. Paulson isn’t a defendant in the lawsuit. Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein , 55, along with Tourre and five current and former employees are set to appear before Levin’s panel Tuesday. Ng rated several previous Abacus deals before resigning from S&P in March 2006. Two days after his first e-mail on Adirondack to fellow members of an S&P criteria panel, Ng wrote that the firm’s modeling now accommodated Goldman’s demands. In return, the bank would put up more collateral, or find a replacement guarantor, if its own credit rating were downgraded, he wrote. Compromise Wins Ng’s compromise carried by a 4-3 vote while provoking sharp dissent, in part because the only one speaking up for the proposal in the released e-mails was Ng himself, Senate documents show. “I would vote NO on this one,” wrote Lapo Guadagnuolo, a senior director of S&P’s structured finance office in London. Kenneth Cheng, then a director in S&P’s CDO group, wrote that the compromise “opens up abuse of our criteria, devoiding it of much meaning.” Michael Drexler , an S&P analyst in New York, also objected. “Ignoring for a moment my stupid (and arrogant!) irritation that the correct side lost, in my mind this is a great example of how the criteria process is NOT supposed to work. Being outvoted is one thing (and a good thing, in my view) but being out-voted by mystery voters with no ‘logic trail’ to refer to is another. How can we possibly reconstruct the argument of the winning side for our future deals if it does not exist in writing for general reference?” Drexler wrote. ‘Backroom Decision’ “This is exactly the kind of backroom decision-making that leads to inconsistent criteria, confused analysts and pissed-off clients,” he added. Reached by telephone Friday, Drexler said, “That’s exactly the kind of thing a young analyst shouldn’t put in writing. Thank God I was right.” Ng, in the interview, defended his work on the Adirondack CDO, which S&P downgraded from AAA to AA in October 2008 and further reduced to BB+, below investment grade, in June 2009. He denied that he had led “mystery voters” to support the compromise. He said that votes on criteria often were made without identifying names to avoid pressuring ratings panelists. “There were a lot of these one-off deals, different team leaders, different managers,” Ng said. “If they got approved, you can’t keep that a secret. After you issue it, bankers can reverse engineer the deals and everybody would ask for it.” Among the e-mails published by the Senate committee was one from Moody’s CEO Raymond McDaniel , who ruminated about banker- rater tension in a memorandum he sent to himself shortly before midnight on Oct. 21, 2007. “Analysts and MDs” managing directors “are continually ‘pitched’ by bankers, issuers, investors — all with reasonable arguments — whose views can color credit judgment, sometimes improving it, other times degrading it (we ‘drink the kool- aid’),” McDaniel wrote, incorporating remarks that he’d heard from some of his employees in recent weeks. “Coupled with strong internal emphasis on market share & margin focus, this does constitute a ‘risk’ to ratings quality.” To contact the reporter on this story: Elliot Blair Smith in Washington at esmith29@bloomberg.net .

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Simon Johnson: When Will Chris Dodd Start Taking Yes For An Answer?

April 25, 2010

Senator Chris Dodd is a tactical legislative genius – keep this clearly in your mind during the days ahead. In terms of maneuvering for the outcomes he seeks, managing the votes, and controlling the floor, you have rarely seen his equal. Senator Dodd wants some financial reform – enough to declare victory – but not so much as to seriously undermine the prevalence of megabanks on Wall Street. You can take whatever view you like on his motivation – but Senator Dodd himself is quite open about his thinking and intentions . Given the mounting pressure from many sides – including Federal Reserve Bank presidents – to implement significantly more reform (see also David Warsh’s Sunday evening assessment ), for example using some version of the Brown-Kaufman SAFE banking act , how exactly will Senator Dodd prevail? 1) He knows that the Republican leadership will mount a disinformation campaign, trying to muddy the waters by claiming that the Dodd bill “institutionalizes bailouts”. This top-down Republican line is complete and deliberate misrepresentation – designed purely to prevent real reform. Every time it is repeated, Senator Dodd’s position becomes stronger because people who really want reform need to rally to his defend his approach. 2) The Republican attacks also justify the Democratic leadership and various pro-reform groups telling people: Don’t confuse the message. Everyone in the center and on the left is lobbied to emphasize that Senator Dodd’s bill will completely “end too big to fail” – if you deviate from this line, you will be accused of falling in with Mitch McConnell’s dangerous views. Expect this pressure to intensify in coming days – requests for responsible and transparent debate on policy options will be drowned out and pushed aside by the pressure for conformity (underpinned by the desire not to undermine Wall Street campaign contributions too much). 3) As the White House pushes back against the Republicans, this will further strengthen Senator Dodd – he is the congressional standard bearer, after all. And everyone knows that he needs 60 senators on his side in order to prevail, so some weakening of the bill is presumed inevitable and must be accepted in the reasonable name of making some progress. But this is where the pure genius of Senator Dodd enters the equation – with an audacity that makes you whistle with appreciation for the art (although not the substance). The presumption is that Senator Dodd is negotiating with one or more Republicans who are the easiest to bring on board. This would make sense if Senator Dodd wanted the strongest bill possible. Senator Chuck Grassley voted for strong derivatives reform in the Agriculture Committee; Senator Olympia Snowe also seems on board with that agenda. Senators John Thune and Bob Corker are saying in public that Republicans want to vote for reform (although it’s a good question what this means exactly). Senator Jim Bunning voted with Senator Bernie Sanders in the Budget committee – on what is being seen as a test vote on breaking up banks ( Sanders’s press release ; Huffington Post coverage ). Senator Scott Brown is wavering in broad daylight. Senator George Voinovich is retiring and rumored to be flexible on financial reform issues. But Senator Dodd is closeted in negotiations with Senator Richard Shelby – who stands for the most pro-Wall Street bill possible. The goal is apparently not to give up as little as possible and still get a bill. The goal is to bring as many supporters of Wall Street as possible on board with the legislation, at the same time as framing the issues so the pro-reform camp looks bad when it presses for more. As we head into what is likely to be the decisive week, Senator Dodd controls the clock, can determine what is debated on the Senate floor, and – whenever he feels hard pressed – remind everyone to toe his line or fear the extreme Republicans. At this point, only the White House can bring sufficient pressure for the Brown-Kaufman bill to get an up-or-down vote; the odds are against this being what the White House really wants to do . But keep calling the White House and the Senate Democratic leadership .

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Swiss Re, Lloyd’s of London See Boost for Insurers in Dodd Financial Bill

April 22, 2010

By Mark Drajem and Jamie McGee April 23 (Bloomberg) — Tucked into Senator Christopher Dodd’s 1,408-page proposal to overhaul U.S. financial regulations is a measure drawing cheers from overseas insurers including Swiss Reinsurance Co. , Ace Ltd . and Lloyd’s of London. The provision would help the companies preempt state rules that govern reinsurers by creating a U.S. Treasury Department office to negotiate international regulations. Non-U.S. reinsurers without state licenses say they’re hobbled in the $63 billion U.S. market because they’re required to post higher collateral than their domestic competitors. “This is an additional layer of money that is basically an issue of trust,” Don Preston , senior regulatory officer for Zurich-based Swiss Re, said in an interview. “Does the U.S. trust that a foreign-owned company like Swiss Re is going to pay its obligations to U.S. clients?” Opponents of the provision say the Treasury’s new power would be used on behalf of companies rather than consumers. “It’s absolutely a giveaway to the insurance industry,” said Representative Jackie Speier , a California Democrat. “Consumer protections will be wiped out.” Speier got the measure weakened in related legislation that passed the House of Representatives. The Dodd measure would let the office override state rules that discriminate against foreign insurers or don’t match deals the Treasury negotiates. The American Insurance Association, which represents insurers including Chubb Corp. , is also fighting for the provision, saying it would help open markets in Europe or Asia. ‘We Lack a Negotiator’ The Treasury office could help tie U.S. regulations to new rules, called Solvency II, that are set to take effect in the European Union in 2012 and would allow U.S. companies to compete on an equal footing in that market, said David Snyder , general counsel of the insurance association. Without the office “we lack a negotiator to participate in negotiations on behalf of the U.S. industry,” Snyder said in an interview. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners, which represents state regulators, wrote to Dodd, the Connecticut Democrat who heads the Senate Banking Committee, expressing its preference for the tighter restrictions on preemption in the House bill. “Our concern is that you would continue to take parts of our regulatory authority from us and put it at the federal level,” Jane Cline, the West Virginia insurance commissioner and president of the national association, said in an interview. The companies “prefer a federal charter,” she said. “In my mind it’s about seeking less regulatory oversight.” U.S. property and casualty reinsurance, which provides backup protection to insurance companies, is a $63 billion industry, based on gross written premiums in 2009, according to Aon Corp. , the world’s largest insurance broker. Lobbying Expenses Companies are spending in support of the provision. Lloyd’s of London, the world’s oldest insurance market, spent $380,000 on lobbying in the first three months of 2010 on this and other measures. Swiss Re, the world’s second-biggest reinsurer after Munich Re, spent $40,000 in that period. Zurich-based Ace spent $1.17 million on lobbying in the quarter. “These issues are inherently global and transnational,” Charles Landgraf, a partner at Dewey & LeBoeuf LLP in Washington who is lobbying for Lloyd’s of London in support of the Dodd measure, said in an interview. “They are mixing and matching risks in different markets.” Andrew Williams , a spokesman for the Treasury Department, had no immediate comment. Mark Greenberg , a spokesman for Chubb, declined to comment. ‘Financial Strength’ “We believe that collateral should be based on the financial strength of a reinsurer, not its place of domicile,” Ace Chief Executive Officer Evan Greenberg said in an e-mailed statement. The Dodd measure isn’t the first time insurance companies have made the case for greater federal control over the industry, which is governed by individual regulations in each of the 50 states. Passage of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999 that removed sections of the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act separating banks, insurance companies and securities firms, included some preemption of state insurance regulation, according to the NAIC. Then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson proposed creating an optional federal charter for insurance companies in 2008. Lawmakers were set to vote on a stand-alone measure similar to the one in the Dodd bill in September 2008. That vote was delayed after financial markets collapsed. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner picked up the idea in a proposal last June, saying it would “promote national coordination in the insurance sector.” Public Citizen The Senate is scheduled to take up Dodd’s bill next week. The legislation would create a consumer protection bureau at the Federal Reserve and a council of regulators to monitor the financial system for systemic risk. It also would strengthen oversight of derivatives and hedge funds. Public Citizen, a Washington-based consumer group founded by Ralph Nader , says the insurance provision in the bill may be shortsighted. “It is incomprehensible that, in the context of pledges worldwide to reregulate financial services, any measure which promotes further deregulation and threatens state consumer protections would be considered by Congress,” Public Citizen said in talking points it’s using against the provision. To contact the reporters on this story: Mark Drajem in Washington at mdrajem@bloomberg.net Jamie McGee in New York at jmcgee8@bloomberg.net

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Dodd Bill Would Allow Fed To Hide Its Spending

April 22, 2010

The Wall Street reform bill headed for a test vote on the Senate floor Monday night will allow the Federal Reserve to continue to pump trillions of dollars into major banks largely in secrecy, the co-author of House language that would open the central bank to an audit charged in a memo to the Senate. “The Senate has a provision in its reform bill that purports to audit the Fed. But, it really doesn’t do anything of the sort. I’m going to run down the details for you, and reprint the legislative language so you can read it yourself,” writes Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.). It would not allow the GAO to look into the Fed’s massive purchase of toxic assets, its hundreds of billions in foreign currency swaps with other central banks or its open market operations, among other restrictions. Grayson and co-author Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) passed legislation through the House that would allow the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to audit the Federal Reserve and, after a delay, release the information to Congress. It was a remarkable victory, with a populist coalition beating back the combined lobbying efforts of the Treasury Department, the Fed and Wall Street banks. The Senate has been more hostile territory for the Fed audit provision. Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) opposes the Grayson-Paul version, but allowed a much more restrictive audit proposal from Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Oregon) into his bill. Grayson, in his memo, outlines the shortcomings of the Senate bill. Walker Todd, who spent some 20 years as a counselor with the Federal Reserve Banks of New York and Cleveland, reviewed Grayson’s analysis and told HuffPost he concurs with it. The Seante bill would allow an audit of the TALF program and slightly expands authority to audit emergency lending conducted under section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act, but restricts it to very specific purposes. Meanwhile, it would not allow the GAO to look into the Fed’s massive purchase of toxic assets, its hundreds of billions in foreign currency swaps with other central banks or its open market operations, among other restrictions. Fed backers argue that requiring transparency would politicize monetary policy, though monetary policy and the Fed itself are already political — they regularly lobby Congress, after all — and would tempt lawmakers to pressure the Fed to inflate the currency to reduce the debt burden. Merkley said he agrees with Grayson’s analysis. “I appreciate Representative Grayson’s concerns over accountability at the Federal Reserve. I have been a strong proponent of Fed reform and voted against the re-confirmation of Ben Bernanke because the Fed has been so lax in using its regulatory powers,” Merkley said in a statement to HuffPost. “Moreover, I felt strongly that we need to act now to empower the GAO to audit the extraordinary emergency programs created by the Fed and I succeeded in getting that power into the Senate bill. Rep. Grayson points out, fairly in my mind, that we need to go even further to audit the Fed’s standing programs. I agree. While we need to protect the Fed’s independence to implement monetary policy, I think the structure and use of their standard programs should be transparent.” Read Grayson’s memo, followed by the legislative language: Memo to the Senate: Stop Secret Bailouts by the Fed Sometimes, you just know that you’ve struck a nerve. I knew it early last year, when a clip of my questioning the Inspector General of the Federal Reserve over the Fed’s balance sheet became the most viewed Congressional hearing in YouTube history. The Fed had lent out around $1 trillion, and I wanted to know what happened to the people’s money. So did the people. They were angry at the Fed, and they showed it. And because of that righteous anger, the financial reform bill in the House contains a provision to audit the Federal Reserve fully. If it passes the Senate, we will finally know to whom the Fed lent our money, how much, and what little we got in return. So it’s up to the Senate. The Senate has a provision in its reform bill that purports to audit the Fed. But, it really doesn’t do anything of the sort. I’m going to run down the details for you, and reprint the legislative language so you can read it yourself. But the story is simple; if the House version of a Fed audit passes, we will finally know to whom the Fed lent our money. If the Senate version passes, the Fed can continue to make sweetheart loans to whomever it wants, without telling Congress or the public. The way Congress oversees complicated government agencies is through the Congressional audit arm, the Government Accountability Office (GAO). The GAO does the actual auditing, and gives that information to Congress, which then holds hearings and makes policy. The House bill grants the GAO the authority to audit the Fed, and then releases that information to Congress with a six-month delay, to prevent traders from gaming the system. The Senate version only allows the GAO to audit a certain part of the Federal Reserve, its emergency lending facilities. The GAO already has some of that authority. Amazingly, the Senate version forces the GAO to withhold this information from the public, and Congress, for as long as the Federal Reserve chooses. The details, and the specific legislative language, are below. Limited Audit Authority What the Senate bill allows: – The Senate language slightly expands existing authority to the GAO to audit only the emergency lending authority in section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act, but only for specific purposes. – The Senate language would grant the GAO authority to audit the TALF program. What the bill does NOT allow: – The Senate language does not allow audits of the mortgage backed security purchase program, a $1.25 trillion program that at this point comprises the bulk of the Fed’s balance sheet. This program includes Freddie and Fannie backed debt. – The Senate language does not allow audits of possible losses on foreign currency swap lines, of which there were more than $500 billion at the height of the crisis. This includes unlimited credit lines granted to central banks all over the world, solely through at the discretion of Federal Reserve and without the input of any elected official or the State Department. – The Senate language does not allow audits of open market operations, where there is ample room for errors, market manipulation, and insider trading violations. – The Senate language does not allow audits of possible losses on securities acquired through non-section 13(3) facilities. This includes looking for possible losses, seigniorage, political conflicts and costs to the Treasury. Federal Reserve Secrecy – In the Senate version, all audits must remain redacted. The GAO can’t even tell Congress to whom the Fed is lending money, the amounts it is lending, or any details about collateral or assets held in connection with any credit facility. – The GAO can never release a full version of any audit unless the Federal Reserve first chooses to shut down the audited credit facility. – Once the Federal Reserve shuts down the authority for the credit facility, the GAO still has to wait a year before it can release details about that facility. If the Fed simply chooses to stop making loans, but does not eliminate the authority to make loans, the GAO has to wait three years before it can release a full report. The Fed can at any point during this period choose to restart the facility, and thereby prevent the release of a full report. See for yourself. The legislative language in the Senate draft is here. Sec. 714. Audit of Financial Institutions Examination Council, Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve banks, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and Office of Comptroller of the Currency (a) In this section, “agency” means the Financial Institutions Examination Council, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (in this section referred to as the `Board’), Federal Reserve Banks, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Office of Thrift Supervision. (b) Under regulations of the Comptroller General, the Comptroller General shall audit an agency, but may carry out an onsite examination of an open insured bank or bank holding company only if the appropriate agency has consented in writing. Audits of the Board and Federal reserve banks may not include – (1) transactions for or with a foreign central bank, government of a foreign country, or non-private international financing organization; (2) deliberations, decisions, or actions on monetary policy matters, including discount window operations, reserves of member banks, securities credit, interest on deposits, and open market operations; (3) transactions made under the direction of the Federal Open Market Committee; or (4) a part of a discussion or communication among or between members of the Board and officers and employees of the Federal Reserve System related to clauses (1)-(3) of this subsection. (c)(1) Except as provided in this subsection, an officer or employee of the Government Accountability Office may not disclose information identifying an open bank, an open bank holding company, or a customer of an open or closed bank or bank holding company. The Comptroller General may disclose information related to the affairs of a closed bank or closed bank holding company identifying a customer of the closed bank or closed bank holding company only if the Comptroller General believes the customer had a controlling influence in the management of the closed bank or closed bank holding company or was related to or affiliated with a person or group having a controlling influence. (2) An officer or employee of the Office may discuss a customer, bank, or bank holding company with an official of an agency and may report an apparent criminal violation to an appropriate law enforcement authority of the United States Government or a State. (3) Except as provided under paragraph (4), an officer or employee of the Government Accountability Office may not disclose to any person outside the Government Accountability Office information obtained in audits or examinations conducted under subsection (e) and maintained as confidential by the Board or the Federal Reserve banks. (4) This subsection shall not– (A) authorize an officer or employee of an agency to withhold information from any committee or subcommittee of jurisdiction of Congress, or any member of such committee or subcommittee; or (B) limit any disclosure by the Government Accountability Office to any committee or subcommittee of jurisdiction of Congress, or any member of such committee or subcommittee. (d)(1) To carry out this section, all records and property of or used by an agency, including samples of reports of examinations of a bank or bank holding company the Comptroller General considers statistically meaningful and workpapers and correspondence related to the reports shall be made available to the Comptroller General. The Comptroller General shall have access to the officers, employees, contractors, and other agents and representatives of an agency and any entity established by an agency at any reasonable time as the Comptroller General may request. The Comptroller General may make and retain copies of such books, accounts, and other records as the Comptroller General determines appropriate. The Comptroller General shall give an agency a current list of officers and employees to whom, with proper identification, records and property may be made available, and who may make notes or copies necessary to carry out an audit. (2) The Comptroller General shall prevent unauthorized access to Records, copies of any Record, or property of or used by an agency that the Comptroller General obtains during an audit. (3)(A) For purposes of conducting audits and examinations under subsection (e), the Comptroller General shall have access, upon request, to any information, data, schedules, books, accounts, financial records, reports, files, electronic communications, or other papers, things or property belonging to or in use by– “(i) any entity established by any action taken by the Board described under subsection (e); “(ii) any entity receiving assistance from any action taken by the Board described under subsection (e), to the extent that the access and request relates to that assistance; and (iii) the officers, directors, employees, independent public accountants, financial advisors and any and all representatives of any entity described under clause (i) or (ii); to the extent that the access and request relates to that assistance; (B) The Comptroller General shall have access as provided under subparagraph (A) at such time as the Comptroller General may request. (C) Each contract, term sheet, or other agreement between the Board or any Federal reserve bank (or any entity established by the Board or any Federal reserve bank) and an entity receiving assistance from any action taken by the Board described under subsection (e) shall provide for access by the Comptroller General in accordance with this paragraph. (e) Notwithstanding subsection (b), the Comptroller General may conduct audits, including onsite examinations when the Comptroller General determines such audits and examinations are appropriate, of any action taken by the Board under the third undesignated paragraph of section 13 of the Federal Reserve Act (12 U.S.C. 343); with respect to a single and specific partnership or corporation.’ (f) REVIEWS OF CREDIT FACILITIES OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.– (1) DEFINITION.–In this subsection, the term ‘credit facility’ means any utility, facility, or program authorized by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System under the third undesignated paragraph of section 13 of the Federal Reserve Act (12 U.S.C. 343), including any special purpose vehicle or other entity established by or on behalf of the Board of Governors or a Federal reserve bank, that is not subject to audit under subsection (e), including– (A) the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility; (B) the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility; (C) the Primary Dealer Credit Facility; (D) the Commercial Paper Funding Facility; and (E) the Term Securities Lending Facility. (2) AUTHORITY FOR REVIEWS AND EXAMINATIONS.–Subject to paragraph (3), and notwithstanding any limitation in subsection (b) on the auditing and oversight of certain functions of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or any Federal reserve bank, the Comptroller General of the United States may conduct reviews, including onsite examinations, of the Board of Governors, a Federal reserve bank, or a credit facility, if the Comptroller General determines that such reviews are appropriate, solely for the purposes of assessing, with respect to a credit facility– (A) the operational integrity, accounting, financial reporting, and internal controls of the credit facility; (B) the effectiveness of the collateral policies established for the facility in mitigating risk to the relevant Federal reserve bank and taxpayers; (C) whether the credit facility inappropriately favors one or more specific participants over other institutions eligible to utilize the facility; and (D) the policies governing the use, selection, or payment of third-party contractors by or for any credit facility. (3) REPORTS AND DELAYED DISCLOSURE.– (A) REPORTS REQUIRED.–A report on each review conducted under paragraph shall be submitted by the Comptroller General to the Congress before the end of the 90-day period beginning on the date on which such review is completed. (B) CONTENTS.–The report under subparagraph (A) shall include a detailed description of the findings and conclusions of the Comptroller General with respect to the matters described in paragraph (2) that were reviewed and are the subject of the report, together with such recommendations for legislative or administrative action relating to such matters as the Comptroller General may determine to be appropriate. (C) DELAYED RELEASE OF CERTAIN INFORMATION.– (i) IN GENERAL.–The Comptroller General shall not disclose to any person or entity, including to Congress, the names or identifying details of specific participants in any credit facility, the amounts borrowed by specific participants in any credit facility, or identifying details regarding assets or collateral held by, under, or in connection with any credit facility, and any report provided under subparagraph (A) shall be redacted to ensure that such names and details are not disclosed. (ii) DELAYED RELEASE.–The non-disclosure obligation under clause (i) shall expire with respect to any participant on the date on which the Board of Governors, directly or through a Federal reserve bank, publicly discloses the identity of the subject participant or the identifying details of the subject assets or collateral. (iii) GENERAL RELEASE.–The Comptroller General shall release a non redacted version of any report on a credit facility 1 year after the effective date of the termination by the Board of Governors of the authorization for the credit facility. For purposes of this clause, a credit facility shall be deemed to have terminated 24 months after the date on which the credit facility ceases to make extensions of credit and loans, unless the credit facility is otherwise terminated by the Board of Governors. (iv) EXCEPTIONS.–The nondisclosure obligation under clause (i) shall not apply to the credit facilities Maiden Lane, Maiden Lane II, and Maiden Lane III.

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Dennis Santiago: Suitability, Innovation and Meaningful Regulatory Reform

April 16, 2010

Earlier this week I attended a panel discussion at my alma mater UCLA Anderson School of Management on regulatory reform. It’s always lovely to bask as a member of the audience in the cacophony of lively academic discussion covering subjects that tickle the fancy of financial engineers. Like all open forums the most fun part is watching people dance around anything substantive, actionable, liable or prohibited from mention because of their “day jobs” so for me it’s the prefaces, adjectives and adverbs of the speakers that tend to raise my deeper probative interests. One word uttered halfway through the session caught my interest. “Suitability” is a term used to denote the legal obligation to ensure that an investment vehicle is “suitable” for the investor. In the United States, a private self-regulatory organization (SRO) named the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc., or FINRA that oversees brokerages, dealers and securities licensees is responsible for assuring that suitability tests are adhered to. Suitability is entirely the responsibility of the securities professional and it’s supposed to be incumbent upon them not to place their clients – who are presumed to not have the technical skills to accomplish meaningful caveat emptor — into situations clearly not in their interests. These regulatory guidelines are fundamental tenets of the industry so it struck me a rather odd a couple of months back listening to the CAO of the City of Los Angeles explaining to Richard Alarcon’s committee how Los Angeles managed to wind up with an underwater Interest Rate Swap created before the Federal Reserve shifted rates radically beyond the modeling limits of the swap were costing the city millions of dollars per year. The industry tends to solve these “mismatches” on an exception basis. Still hearing the word “suitability” uttered in Korn Hall made my mind meander back to another self-policing organization, the AICPA, that at one time allowed the degradation of the adequacy of internal controls to atrophy to such an extent that it required the passage of Sarbanes-Oxley and the creation of a government agency, the PCAOB, to begin to finally remedy. The thought stream naturally seems to apply to things like getting OTC derivatives cleaned up into some more accountable form of exchange controlled environment. Not some of them, all of them. Some just means it’s window dressing and the business of invisible casino banking can go on. Investment bankers are after all masters of the art of fitting elephants through keyholes. But much more important to the many ill positioned investors whose confidence is critical to America’s future economic recovery, I continue to wonder if there isn’t a massive inventory of mismatched and unsuitable investments out there that needs cleaning up systematically instead of by exception to get the US back on cleaner footing. There was also some interesting discussion about various forms of financial products and risk control strategies that might be applied as part of a set of regulatory reforms. Ultimately all these discussions conclude that we live in some sort of band aid stuck on top of band aid regulatory universe that revels in complex rules that somehow have the macabre outcome of protecting special interests more often than impeding them. It’s like looking at toxic murky soup in a big pond; the kind that turns swans swimming upon them a darker shade of bird. It all adds up to one question for me. Why isn’t one of the pillars of emerging financial regulatory reform the institution of a “Black Swan” test that examines new financial product innovation and subjects it to some form of systemic risk consequence test? I’m just saying, given all we’ve learned, why do we have to keep on figuring out our messes after the damage is done? If you look back at most of these innovations gone bad in finance you’ll find that the people who set up these risks knew the music wouldn’t last from the get go. They just didn’t care. Heck, some of them apparently even went into the classic “bookie” business betting one client against another with the house always taking a cut. There’s an open request for comment from the SEC right now asking for input about how much “skin in the game” should be required when finance innovates and issues new risk laden products. It deserves elevation to the front burner of regulatory reform analysis. The skin in the game should weigh about the same as a duck.

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Hu Says China to Follow Own Path on Yuan as Obama Pushes for `Market’ Rate

April 12, 2010

By Edwin Chen and Rob Delaney April 13 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama urged China to move toward a “more market-oriented exchange rate” for its currency, and President Hu Jintao told Obama his country would follow its own path toward revaluing the yuan. Hu said any such action by China must be “based on its own economic and social-development needs,” China’s official Xinhua news agency reported. Obama also expressed “his concern” about some “market-access barriers in China,” Jeff Bader , senior director for Asia at the National Security Council, told reporters after the meeting, held as world leaders gathered for an international nuclear security summit in Washington. The leaders’ remarks left each country room to maneuver, and didn’t foreclose action toward changing the yuan’s almost two-year peg to the dollar, said Kenneth Lieberthal , who was the top Asia expert at the National Security Council under President Bill Clinton . “Hu could have said that China feels its exchange rate is now at the right level and will not change it; he did not say that,” Lieberthal said. By saying China would adjust any exchange rates based on its own needs, Hu left the matter “wide open — and certainly allows the flexibility to adjust the exchange rate,” Lieberthal said. “Hu’s left himself a lot of wiggle room.” Both Obama and Hu were essentially addressing their own domestic audiences, at least in part for political considerations, said Lieberthal, now a Sinologist at the Brookings Institution, a Washington research organization. ‘Stable’ Trade Ties Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu told a separate briefing in Washington that Hu’s and Obama’s talks were constructive and that China considers “stable” trade relations to be in the interests of both countries. China and the U.S. should resolve trade frictions through talks “on equal footing,” Ma said. Both leaders’ stances weren’t unexpected, said Donald Straszheim , director of China research at International Strategy & Investment Group. “It would have been astonishing for Hu Jintao to come to Washington, have a meeting with the President and come out of it saying: ‘we’ve changed our mind’,” Straszheim said. The Obama administration is under pressure from Congress to label China a currency manipulator for keeping the yuan’s value against the dollar little changed for almost two years. U.S. lawmakers including Senators Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham say that gives Chinese exporters an unfair advantage. Yuan forwards traded near an 11-week high today after China said a trade deficit in March was temporary, easing concern the government will delay loosening controls on the currency. ‘Urgency’ on Iran During their meeting, Obama also made clear the “sense of urgency” on dealing with Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and the Chinese said they will work with the U.S. on United Nations sanctions, Bader told reporters. Obama underscored that Iran “must meet its international nuclear nonproliferation obligations,” and both presidents agreed to instruct their delegations to work with the UN Security Council on a sanctions resolution. “The Chinese are very clear they share our concern about the Iranian nuclear program,” Bader said. “The resolution will make clear to Iran the cost of pursuing a nuclear program that violates Iran’s obligations and responsibilities,” Bader said. “The discussion was a sign of international unity on Iran. The Chinese are actively at the table.” Positive Signals Lieberthal said in a telephone interview from Beijing the signals from China seemed positive. “In coming to the summit, President Hu affirmed that China is into a serious negotiation on an Iran sanctions resolution,” he said. “It doesn’t tell you yet how supportive China will be and what its bottom line will be. So there’s still a lot to cover. But the fact that they are seriously engaged on this is certainly a lot of better than if they had shunned the process.” Bader described the two leaders’ talks about the global economic recovery and nuclear nonproliferation as “positive” and “constructive.” They agreed that “concrete actions” are needed on these issues, Bader said. China posted a deficit of $7.24 billion, the country’s customs bureau said on its Web site on April 10. Commerce Minister Chen Deming said the data reflects the country’s openness to other economies and isn’t linked to the exchange rate. China’s trade deficit was the first in six years. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 26 economists was for a shortfall of $390 million. Imports surged 66 percent from a year earlier as exports gained 24 percent. To contact the reporters on this story: Edwin Chen in Washington at Echen32@bloomberg.net Rob Delaney in Washington at robdelaney@bloomberg.net

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Options Show S&P 500 Profit Shortage Amid Stock Gains

April 12, 2010

By Lynn Thomasson and Jeff Kearns April 12 (Bloomberg) — The biggest rally in seven decades has left investors so skittish that even forecasts for a 30 percent surge in U.S. earnings are failing to keep them from hedging bets on equities. The premium on options that insure against losses in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index over those wagering on gains, known as skew , rose to the highest level since June 2008, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Traders sought protection as shares rallied for six weeks, pushing a measure of momentum that compares stocks with their 50-day average to the most bearish reading in 13 months, according to Bespoke Investment Group LLC. While forecasts for the fastest profit growth in 16 years restored $6.63 trillion to U.S. equities since March 2009, the worst times to own stocks were when companies reported quarterly results. The S&P 500 dropped more than 5 percent after earnings season began in October and January, rebounding after better- than-estimated income held valuations below historical averages. “There’s a lot of room for disappointment,” said Charles Stamey , who helps oversee $30 billion as a managing director at Manning & Napier Advisors Inc. in St. Petersburg, Florida. “When you’re in the middle of a recovery, the big question is how long can it be sustained, and in our mind, the easy money has already been made.” Companies in the S&P 500 may report the second-fastest profit growth since 1998 for the first quarter after the previous period’s 176 percent advance, according to forecasts from more than 1,500 analysts compiled by Bloomberg. Earnings are projected to climb 27 percent for all of 2010 and 20 percent next year, the biggest two-year increase since 1994, data show. Earnings Season If the past is any indication, investors have reason to be concerned as earnings season begins today with Alcoa Inc. The S&P 500 slipped 5.6 percent starting 12 days after the New York- based company reported results that topped estimates Oct. 7. The index began an 8.1 percent decrease three months later after the biggest U.S. aluminum maker missed projections. Alcoa probably earned 9 cents a share last quarter, the most since 2008, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The S&P 500’s retreats in January and October were more than 20 times greater than the average earnings-season loss of 0.3 percent in the past decade, according to Bespoke data. Both declines were erased and stocks rose to the bull market’s highest levels after more than 72 percent of profit reports exceeded predictions. Stocks are about as likely to rise as fall during the average earnings season, Bespoke’s data shows. Trouble Ahead The reaction to earnings season may be “mixed and tepid,” says Jeremy Zirin , chief equity strategist of wealth management research for the Americas at UBS Financial Services Inc., which oversees $663 billion. “It’s already in the price, it’s already in the estimates , so the surprise factor has been greatly reduced,” said New York-based Zirin, whose firm cut its allocation to equities to “neutral” this month. “We’re not saying there’s going to be a significant 10 percent-plus correction from here. We just don’t see the same kind of drivers that have pushed markets higher in line anymore.” The S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent to 1,197.06 as of 10:44 a.m. in New York. The gauge increased 1.4 percent to 1,194.37 last week, extending the longest stretch of gains in a year. The benchmark index for U.S. equities has climbed 13 percent since Feb. 8 and is 24 percent below its record of 1,565.15 on Oct. 9, 2007. Buying Opportunity Any losses in stocks at the start of the reporting season will represent another chance to buy, says Richard Sichel , who oversees $1.4 billion as chief investment officer at Philadelphia Trust Co. He’s bullish on technology providers such as Santa Clara, California-based Intel Corp. , the world’s biggest semiconductor maker, and industrial companies because data show the economy is accelerating. Analysts estimate Intel will report earnings of 38 cents a share on April 13, more than triple its income in the year- earlier period. Its shares gained 4 percent on March 16, the biggest rally since August, after the company released a new line of server chips. U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 5.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, the fastest in six years, the Commerce Department said March 26 in Washington. Service industries expanded at the quickest pace in almost four years, according to an April 5 report from the Institute for Supply Management in Tempe, Arizona. Employers added the most jobs in three years during March, the Labor Department said April 2. Fundamentally Strong “Whether companies are overbought on a technical basis, I don’t know,” Sichel said in an interview. The S&P 500 is trading at 15.3 times the analysts’ forecast for earnings in 2010, compared with the average of 22.3 since August 1982, according to data compiled by Yale University Professor Robert Shiller . “We’re looking at fundamentals, and the fundamentals are relatively strong.” The options market shows traders preparing for losses . Implied volatility for S&P 500 puts expiring in July is 68 percent higher than calls that pay off when the index rallies, according to contracts priced 10 percent above and below the index. That’s the biggest ratio since June 5, 2008, three months before New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history. The gap between puts and calls jumped to 59 percent on Aug. 16, 2007. Two months later, the S&P 500 began a 57 percent plunge through March 2009. Bearish contracts climbed to 56 percent above bullish ones on Feb. 26, 2008, preceding a 7.8 percent loss in two weeks. JPMorgan, UPS JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York and Atlanta-based United Parcel Service Inc. are among companies scheduled to report results this month that have the highest options-market skew, according to an April 7 report by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Put contracts are priced at least 25 percent above calls, data compiled by New York-based Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg show. Profit at JPMorgan , the second-largest U.S. bank by assets, rose to 64 cents a share last quarter, according to the average estimate of 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The shares have gained for nine straight weeks, the longest streak since at least 1980, climbing 20 percent to $45.98 over the period. UPS, the world’s largest package courier, will report an increase to 57 cents a share, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The company’s price-earnings ratio has almost doubled over nine months to 27.9, the highest level in five years. “The volatility risk premium is very high, and it’s telling you that right now there’s definitely much more fear in the market,” said Barclays Plc’s New York-based Maneesh Deshpande , who leads the top-ranked derivatives strategy team in Institutional Investor magazine’s 2009 survey. He cited the ratio of the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, to the S&P 500’s price swings in the past month. Great Recession “The great recession has become a defining moment and as a result people are thinking, ‘I need to protect myself,’” Deshpande said. More than 77 percent of the stocks in the S&P 500 jumped at least one standard deviation above their 50-day average on April 5, the highest level in a year, according to Bespoke in Harrison, New York. Greater than one standard deviation is defined as occurring less than 32 percent of the time in a statistical model. The last three times the momentum gauge reached 75 percent or more, the S&P 500 dropped 4 percent from peak to trough in three weeks, Bespoke’s data show. “We think equities are OK, but we’re past the sweet spot where you can get real, abnormally positive returns,” said UBS’s Zirin. “The market has benefited from extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus and a very sharp reacceleration on earnings. At this stage, each of those arguments is less compelling or reversing.” To contact the reporters on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net ; Jeff Kearns in New York at jkearns3@bloomberg.net

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Kathryn Schulz: DeathWish Airways: Alan Greenspan and the 30% Chance of Error

April 10, 2010

Alan Greenspan, the former five-term Fed chief once described as “the greatest central banker in history,” has lately given us a new number to think about. Testifying last week before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in Washington, D.C., Greenspan was asked by Commission Chair Phil Angelides if he had erred in failing to impose regulatory measures that could have prevented or mitigated the financial meltdown. Instead of answering, Greenspan replied that, over the course of his 21 years in government, “I was right 70 percent of the time but I was wrong 30 percent of the time.” Seventy percent right, 30 percent wrong: in the ever-combustible ecosystem of the blogosphere, Greenspan’s personal-fallibility pie chart ignited a firestorm of vitriol and scorn. The question is: why? In a culture where admissions of error by public officials are as rare as Yangtze river dolphins, one might imagine that Greenspan’s comparative candor would earn some plaudits. I’ve spent most of the last five years studying how we respond to mistakes – our own as well as other people’s – and I’d argue that there are three reasons Greenspan’s admission made us more rather than less angry with him. The first has to do with context. Consider, for a moment, the remarkably chameleon significance of the 30 percent figure. As many critics have pointed out, with that error rate, Greenspan would be earning a C-minus if he were a high school kid. If he were an aviation company, he’d be DeathWish Airways. On the other hand, if he were a baseball player, he’d be on the Yankees roster, or steroids, or both. In other words, every domain of life has, tacitly or explicitly, a different acceptable error rate. In politics, that rate is zero. Even though we know it’s unrealistic, we want our leaders to screw up precisely never. And those leaders, accordingly, are under immense pressure to pretend that they never screw up. As the famed military historian Barbara Tuchman observed (critically), “to recognize error, to cut losses, to alter course, is the most repugnant option in government.” This appealing but unachievable zero-percent error rate has the curious effect of producing, in our imaginations, its equally unachievable opposite: the 100 percent, dead-wrong-about-everything error rate. So desperately do we want our leaders to be perfect that our sense of fury and betrayal when they fail us knows no bounds. And thus the error polarity reverses: having realized that our leaders are not 100 percent right, we want them to break down, beg our forgiveness, and admit to being 100 percent wrong. In this desire we are likely to be thwarted. Leaders who are chosen partly on the basis of seeming infallible often achieve that semblance by feeling infallible – and people who feel infallible do not generally excel at admitting their errors. For that matter, nor do the rest of us. The second reason Greenspan’s 70 percent comment infuriated so many people is that it was, by definition, a quantitative rather than qualitative assessment of his failings. Saying that you are right 70 percent of the time suggests that it is possible to aggregate all the beliefs of two decades, divvy them up into the accurate and the erroneous, and arrive at a meaningful assessment of your overall rightness – and, by extension, your overall impact on your field, or on the world. That would be plausible if error were a fixed and uniform entity, like a kilobyte or a quart. But that’s not how error works. Errors are just faulty beliefs, and as such they are as varied – in size, significance, and stakes – as belief itself. In an essay called “The Relativity of Wrong,” the writer and scientist Isaac Asimov noted that, just as the earth is not flat, it is also not spherical; it bulges out at the equator, forming what is called an “oblate sphere.” However, Asimov went on to write, “if you think that thinking the earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together.” The point is that the content of our errors matters far more than their frequency. You can be wrong about the whereabouts of your wallet as often as you like, and all you will garner is a reputation as a space cadet. But you cannot be wrong about the soundness of the global financial system so much as once – at least, not if you are the person with your hands on its levers. As we learned the hard way, that’s one error we can’t afford. The final reason Greenspan’s alleged error rate was maddening – or at least deeply puzzling – is that, as far as I or anyone could tell, it seemed to be plucked from thin air. How, exactly, had Greenspan arrived at his 30/70 breakdown? The Federal Reserve is not in the habit of implanting error-monitoring microchips in its head honchos, for the good reason that such devices don’t exist. The one error-monitoring device we’re all born with – memory – is, itself, famously fallible, and never more so than when we are called upon to remember unpleasant events like mistakes. True, there are other readily available error-monitors, in the form of outside critics, and Greenspan had plenty of those. (Indeed, one of them, former Commodity Futures Trading Commission head Brooksley Born , was on hand at the hearing to deliver a deserved “I told you so.”) But plainly Greenspan didn’t get his wrongness data from these outsiders. Until about three seconds ago, he thought they were wrong. In theory, Greenspan could have arrived at his 30 percent statistic by making a lifelong habit of recording and analyzing his mistakes. The doctor and journalist Atul Gawande has written about a colleague who meticulously tracks and analyzes all his medical errors – and, not coincidentally, excels in his field. People like that (all nine of them) track their mistakes so closely that, if pressed, they could probably generate a reasonable estimate of how often they err. Greenspan, however, appears to take the opposite approach. In his testimony on Wednesday, he made it clear that he does not believe in dwelling on past mistakes. “Figuring out what you should have done differently,” he told the commission, “is a really futile activity.” (Never mind that the whole point of the commission was to figure out what leaders like him should have done differently.) So much for meticulously tracking mistakes. In Greenspan’s defense, very few of the rest of us meticulously track our mistakes either. And yet, like him, almost all of us are prepared to hazard an estimate of how often we err. Not long ago, I spent an afternoon in Grand Central Terminal, asking strangers how often they thought they were wrong. (Check out the resulting 3-minute video .) Like Greenspan, everyone had a ready answer; somewhat to my surprise, many people offered precise percentages, as he would later do. The percentages themselves, however, varied widely. Even if you ignore all the people who said “I’m never wrong!” (they were abundant, but mostly kidding), the range of responses was staggering – from “not often at all” to “70% of the time.” You could conclude from this that we vary in how often we’re wrong. But you could also conclude – more realistically, to my mind – that what varies most is not how much we err, but how well we are able to accept our fallibility. In other words, our answer to the question, “how often are you wrong?” doesn’t describe an empirical reality. It describes, instead, an emotional and intellectual orientation: our ideas about the human mind, our relationship to certainty and doubt, our baselines theories about the simplicity or complexity of the world. Thirty percent wrong, seventy percent right: this is, I suspect, less a statistic than a self-image – solid, conservative, cautiously optimistic. In part, those figures upset us because they clashed with the image many of the rest of us now have of Alan Greenspan: incautious, ideologically blinkered, dangerously wrong. In part, they upset us because they were figures in the first place – because Greenspan’s reaction to his role in the financial crisis privileged numbers over substance and quantification over compassion, because he chose to estimate probabilities instead of taking responsibility. To no small extent, though, those numbers were upsetting because they came along so late in the game. If Greenspan thinks he’s wrong almost a third of the time, shouldn’t he have been a bit less adamant about the accuracy of his economic theories? Shouldn’t he have been a bit more open and curious in the face of criticism and counterevidence? Where was that 30 percent hedge during the Maestro days? Back then, maybe an openly acknowledged and accounted for error-rate could have saved us – our jobs, our savings, our pension funds, our homes. Coming when it does, it is simply galling.

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Carolyn Anderson: Business and Life Lessons From Betty White

April 8, 2010

As a successful businesswoman and doctor who treats aging patients, I’m inspired by Betty White. At 88 years old, she is more popular than ever. In the past year, she has appeared in a major film, The Proposal , starred in a popular Super Bowl ad for Snickers and has been featured on numerous popular talk shows. Thanks to a Facebook Fan page with over 500,000 members, on May 8th, she’ll be the oldest person to ever host “Saturday Night Live”. I think Betty’s success can teach us all a few things about business and life. You’re Never Too Old to Embrace New Things Betty White is the perfect example that your career and your life are not over when you hit 65. 65 has always been an arbitrary number for retirement, derived from the average life expectancy back in the 1930s. Don’t ever think it’s too late to start a new career, take up a new activity or travel. Staying active and involved keeps you physically and mentally young. There are mountains of evidence to support the notion that staying engaged and interested will help you live not only longer but healthier. Build Your Brand While Betty has appeared in numerous TV shows and movies she has always been able to keep her own personal brand. Fans know her as a sweet lady, but with a hilarious sense of humor and great comedic timing. Make sure you are consistent in your personal and professional life. Nothing is more valuable than establishing integrity and authenticity. Be who you really are and shine in the world as your authentic and wonderful self. Recognize Your Limitations Even though she has been asked several times, Betty turned down a chance to appear on “Dancing With The Stars.” Even though she doesn’t look her age, Betty realized the demanding physical routines would be too hard on her. While it was a great opportunity, it wasn’t the right fit for her. You don’t have to accept every opportunity. Some may not be worth your time and some may be beyond your capabilities. Don’t waste time doing things that aren’t your strong point. Do some soul searching and be honest with yourself about where your passions lie. Learn to say no to the things that you don’t really want to do, so you have time for the things that make your heart sing. Branch Out Although Betty White is best known for her roles in “The Golden Girls” and the “Mary Tyler Moore Show,” she has also appeared on games shows, movies and commercials. Don’t confine yourself to one area of business. You never know what you will discover if you try new things. Although this can be anxiety provoking, it is worth it to step out of your comfort zone. Honestly ask yourself, “When was the last time I did something for the first time,” and make sure it hasn’t been too long. Take Risks Betty White had previously been offered a hosting position on “SNL” three times. This time she accepted even though she is “scared to death.” She told Ellen DeGeneres that you have to take it and do the best you can do with it. Have you been holding yourself back because of an irrational fear? Don’t let fears hold you back from your true potential. As Eleanor Roosevelt so famously stated, “You gain strength, courage and confidence with every experience in which you stop to look fear in the face, you must do that which you think you cannot do.” Remember, we never regret the things we tried that didn’t work out. We only regret the things we didn’t try, the chances we didn’t take and the things we did not do. At the end of your life, your level of happiness will be measured by the difference between what you were capable of becoming and what you did in fact become. Take a chance and close the gap. Take the Small Parts Betty was offered a guest role in the pilot of the new show “Hot in Cleveland.” After being so well received, she was written into the series as a regular cast member. While you might not ever be offered a guest role on TV you may be offered a temporary position, volunteer role, internship or junior position. Don’t turn something down that is below you. If it’s for an organization you believe in, you should accept the position. Do your job right and it could expand. Network Betty White’s future appearance on “SNL” is because of over 500,000 fans that supported her. Betty White wasn’t even aware of the site until media outlets began reporting the group’s viral growth. Do you have supporters who can help you find opportunities? By networking and keeping in touch with influential people you’ll be at the top of their mind when they hear of job openings and other opportunities. You don’t need half a million fans but having the right connections can help you land opportunities you may not have even known of. Many people are uncomfortable networking. Try the positive networking approach: think of what you can do for the people you are meeting and sharing with. Don’t think about what they can do for you. Just connect and the benefits will astound you. Stick to Your Beliefs Betty White is well known as an animal activist. This sometimes came in conflict with her career and she once turned down a role in a movie where she felt an animal would be mistreated. While she missed out on a role, she stuck to her principles. Don’t compromise your own values. It is possible to succeed in life and your career while maintaining your integrity. Nothing is more valuable than your good name. Know your values, keep them close to your heart and never stray from what you believe in. Find Something You Love If you’re doing what you love it will never feel like work — and if you haven’t found your passion yet, it’s not too late. Betty White doesn’t need to continue working but she does it because she enjoys her job. The happiest and most successful people do what they have a passion for. If you don’t absolutely love, love, love what you do — greatness will always be just out of reach. When you bring your heart and soul to a job, or to your life in general, you can’t lose. If you don’t, you will always lose out to someone who does.

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Brown Challenges Cameron for Undecided Suburban Voters in 23% of Districts

April 7, 2010

By Thomas Penny April 7 (Bloomberg) — Michael Paterson is one of the reasons why pollsters say British Prime Minister Gordon Brown still has a chance in the May 6 election. Paterson, who voted for the opposition Conservatives in the last two elections, says he’s undecided about backing David Cameron , the party’s leader. “I have a concern that Cameron is more style over substance,” said Paterson, head of human resources for a unit of German reinsurer Munich Re . “I need to know more about the policies. It’s easy to look impressive in opposition.” The 39-year-old father of three and wavering voters like him will probably be decisive in the most closely contested British election in a generation. The two main parties are targeting about 150 districts — out of a total of 650 — that they’ve identified as swing seats in an election that polls suggest will fail to give either one a governing majority. Residents of London’s commuter belt, where Paterson lives in the suburb of Tooting, were crucial to Labour when then-43- year-old Tony Blair won in 1997. Cameron, 43, who described himself in 2005 as Blair’s heir, needs to sway those voters. Even with a lead that swelled to 28 percentage points over Brown during the longest U.K. recession on record, Cameron, former director of corporate affairs at London-based media firm Carlton Communications Plc , hasn’t been able to close the sale. Thatcher’s Policies Undecided voters are concerned he may go back to policies adopted by Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s and slash services, said Stephen Driver , who teaches politics at Roehamption University in London. The Conservative have promised 6 billion pounds ($9.1 billion) in immediate cuts if they win. “ The Conservative Party still has to convince voters it has learned the lessons of the last decade,” said Driver. “Most people want a combination of a market economy and good public services.” The Conservative lead shrank to 2 percentage points in a YouGov Plc poll on March 24, an outcome that would result in no single party having a majority, a so-called hung parliament. An Ipsos-Mori poll of swing seats at the same time showed the Conservatives outperforming their national result, though not by enough to gain a majority in the House of Commons. The Ipsos-Mori poll , conducted between March 19 and March 22, reported that in marginal districts, 40 percent of Conservative supporters and 37 percent of Labour supporters said they may change their mind before the election. No margin of error was provided. ‘Make the Case’ “We’ve got to go out there and make the case,” said Greg Barker , a Conservative spokesman on climate change and adviser to Cameron. “At the end of three weeks of David Cameron, I think people who are minded to vote for us will have no doubt that he is the change that Britain needs.” Blair, who was succeeded by Brown in 2007, built a coalition across the political spectrum by promising higher spending without raising taxes. That might not be an option for Cameron because of a record budget deficit of about 12 percent of gross domestic product. “It’s much harder for Cameron to pull off a Blair-type campaign of leaving all the old divisions behind,” said Robert Ford, a political scientist at Manchester University. “Blair said we can keep taxes low and we can have better public services. No one can credibly say that in 2010.” Halal Butchers In Tooting, six miles south of Parliament, the Conservatives are trying to defeat Sadiq Khan , a minister in Brown’s government, concentrating their campaign on young parents and voters who live in areas where houses sell for more than 1 million pounds. Activists say they don’t expect to win over traditionally Labour voting areas where streets are lined with Halal butchers and Islamic bookshops. Mark Clarke , 32, the Conservative candidate who has knocked on doors in four elections in the district, said polls are tightening because residents who had said they didn’t plan to vote are now backing Labour or the Liberal Democrats, the number-three party. Clarke said the Conservative vote is solid. “People now want to ask two questions: ‘This David Cameron, is he for real? He seems to be a nice guy but I know it could all be PR and spin.’ The other question is, ‘he seems alright, what about you though, what about the rest of the Conservative Party?’” Clarke said. Playing on those doubts, Brown has said Conservatives’ proposed budget cuts risk a “double-dip” recession. Labour has clawed back support since the economy rebounded with growth of 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 and better-than- expected jobless figures . Cameron’s Risk Cameron risks alienating swing voters should he play on the economy and the need for cuts, Ford said. “It’s much harder to make the case about broken Britain and the urgent need for austerity now people feel the situation is stabilizing,” he said. “People are less worried about the economic situation than they were six or seven months ago.” Paterson, who is married to an elementary school teacher and moved to London from Scotland, voted for Blair in 1997, though turned back to the Conservatives when they had little chance of winning in 2001 and 2005 elections. The cricket fan does have some comfort for Cameron. He says there’s no chance he will vote for Brown. He’s concerned about tax increases. “It comes down to perception and gut feeling that they’ll revert to type,” he said. “Labour will err on the side of high taxation and in as much as I’d want my parties to err, I’d want them to lean toward low taxation.” To contact the reporter on this story: Thomas Penny in London at tpenny@bloomberg.net

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Fed Officials Saw Inflation Slowdown That May Temper Need to Raise Rates

April 6, 2010

By Scott Lanman April 7 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve policy makers last month saw an inflation slowdown across the U.S. economy that may persist in the coming months, tempering any need to reverse record-low interest rates. At the same time, the Fed said its pledge to keep the main rate low for an “extended period” wouldn’t keep it from taking action when needed to keep inflation in check, according to minutes of the March 16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting released yesterday. A few officials warned of the risks of increasing borrowing costs too soon. The inflation outlook, coupled with Fed officials’ concerns about unemployment and long-term joblessness, signal Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues are still looking for evidence of a sustained rebound from the worst recession since the 1930s. Fed staff economists reduced their 2010 and 2011 forecasts for inflation excluding food and energy, projections that were already below 2009 rates. “If you expect moderate growth and high unemployment and decelerating inflation, which is still likely to be the best guess at the moment, you won’t be interested in raising interest rates right now,” said former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley , a senior economic adviser at Potomac Research Group in Washington. Bernanke will discuss challenges for the world’s largest economy in a Dallas speech today. At the meeting last month, central bankers left the benchmark federal funds rate target, covering overnight interbank loans, in a range of zero to 0.25 percent, where it has been since December 2008. Fed officials cited the job market, lower home prices and tight credit as restraints on the recovery, the minutes said. Long-run Goal A price gauge favored by the Fed, the personal consumption expenditures price index, minus food and energy, rose 1.3 percent for the year ending February, slowing from a 1.5 percent rate in January. Fed officials have a longer-run goal of 1.7 percent to 2 percent for the full PCE price index. “Participants saw recent inflation readings as suggesting a slightly greater deceleration in consumer prices than had been expected,” and recent readings on core inflation “were generally lower than they had anticipated,” the Fed minutes said. In addition, some policy makers saw “widespread” moderation in price changes “across many categories of spending,” and anecdotal reports showed planned wage increases by employers were “small or nonexistent,” the report said. At the meeting, some officials said the “extended period” language “was explicitly contingent on the evolution of the economy rather than on the passage of any fixed amount of calendar time.” Tighten Credit The Fed could decide to tighten credit “promptly if evidence suggested that economic activity was accelerating markedly or underlying inflation was rising notably,” the minutes said. Should the economic outlook worsen or inflation decline further, the extended period’s duration “might last for quite some time and could even increase.” Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig cast a dissenting FOMC vote in January and March, preferring to jettison the “extended period” language and to say instead that rates are likely to be low “for some time.” “They’re trying to diminish the significance of it by pointing out that they can move quickly if they need to,” said Stephen Stanley , chief economist at Pierpont Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, and a former Fed researcher. “But I don’t think that they’re prepping the markets to take that language out, much less prepping the markets to move.” Compelled to Tighten     Stanley said he’s predicting the Fed will be surprised by economic data and will be compelled to raise interest rates in September. While indicators released since the meeting show a further strengthening of the economy, that may not be sufficient to pull policy makers closer to tightening credit and exiting record monetary stimulus, said John Ryding of RDQ Economics LLC. The minutes gave a “fairly cautious” outlook, said Ryding, a former Fed researcher and former Bear Stearns Cos. chief U.S. economist, who is expecting the central bank to start raising rates in March 2011. “It ought to, in my mind, allay some fears of an earlier move by the Fed.” The meeting preceded the Labor Department’s April 2 report that the economy added 162,000 jobs in March, the third gain in five months and the most in three years. The unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent, close to a 26-year high. Fastest Pace A report this week showed that service industries expanded in March at the fastest pace since May 2006, indicating the U.S. recovery is spreading beyond manufacturing. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non-manufacturing businesses rose to 55.4 from 53 the prior month. Readings above 50 signal expansion. The economic news has helped boost U.S. stocks. The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index closed at 1,189.44 yesterday, its highest level since Sep. 26, 2008. Still, based on the Fed’s view of the economy, policy makers are planning on raising rates in 2011, Stanley said. “If you could tie the guys at the Fed down and inject them with truth serum, they’d say early 2011.” To contact the reporter on this story: Scott Lanman in Washington at slanman@bloomberg.net .

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Kathryn Schulz: Michael Lewis’s The Big Short: What Does It Mean to Bet (Right) on Armageddon?

March 18, 2010

The story of the 2008 financial crisis is, overwhelmingly, a story of losses and losers. The losses include 5 million jobs in the United States alone, tens of millions more overseas, and some 40 percent of the world’s wealth. The losers include, at a conservative estimate, several billion human beings. Given those numbers, it takes a certain amount of chutzpah to tell the story of the financial crisis from the vantage point of the winners — the comparatively tiny number of people who saw the calamity coming and cashed in on it. That, however, is the story Michael Lewis chooses to recount in his new book, The Big Short . In lesser hands, that choice could easily come off as crass. Who, other than the jealous and the callous, gives a damn about the guys who made billions while the rest of us lost our shirts? Yet Lewis makes the choice look inspired. At the end of 2008, when the scope of the economic meltdown became clear, the question on everyone’s mind was: how come so many smart people failed to foresee the crisis? The usual answer, at least as provided by those same smart people, was that, for one reason or another, it was actually unforeseeable. The right information wasn’t made available to them at the right time. Or the information had become too opaque and unintelligible to piece it together into a big picture. Or the reigning model of how the market worked precluded the possibility of such a calamitous event. Or the crisis arose from a confluence of events too specific and improbable for anyone to have predicted it. It was the black swan — the huge, hungry, bad-tempered black swan — that ate Manhattan. The trouble with these hypotheses (like the trouble with many hypotheses, including those that brought down our economy) is that they all fail to take into account certain crucial pieces of evidence. In this case, those pieces of evidence are Lewis’s protagonists. “A small number of people — more than ten, fewer than twenty — made a straightforward bet against the entire multi-trillion-dollar subprime mortgage market and, by extension, the global financial system,” Lewis writes. The mere existence of those people proves his point: “The catastrophe was foreseeable, yet only a handful noticed.” The Big Short is Lewis’s effort to explain why. To do so, the book sticks close to that handful of people — who are indeed a handful, in every sense of the phrase. Among them: Steve Eisner, the compulsively honest, thoroughly tactless hedge-fund manager who starts his career as a Republican devotee of mortgage bonds and ends up about as close to a morally outraged lefty as Wall Street has ever seen. Also: Charlie Ledley, the thirty-year-old co-founder of a company called Cornwall Capital Management. A lot of what you need to know about Cornwall Capital you can glean from this: it was started in Berkeley and subsequently migrated to the East Village. (Ledley’s business partner calls it a “garage band hedge fund.”) Then there is Greg Lippman, who, in Lewis’s telling, has the fashion sense of a porn star, the oily sheen of a used-car salesman, the bank account of a bond trader (which he is) — and, starting sometime around 2005, a 42-page, meticulously documented presentation about everything that was wrong with the subprime mortgage market. Finally, there is Michael Burry, a one-eyed former neurology resident who discovers early in life that he has an uncanny ability to understand the stock market — and, late in life, that he has Asperger’s syndrome. In the land of the blind, the saying goes, the one-eyed man is king. Burry, Lippman, Ledley, and Eisner saw what precious few other people were able or willing to perceive: a fatal flaw in the early-twentieth-century global financial system. The subprime mortgage market — “the most powerful engine of profits and employment on Wall Street” — was a glorified Ponzi scheme. Millions of people with shaky or nonexistent credit histories were seduced into accepting adjustable-rate mortgages: tantalizingly low interest rates at first, terrifying consequences down the line. Traders then chopped those mortgages apart, stuck them back together in strange configurations, and sold the resulting financial Frankensteins to investors as triple-A rated bonds. That’s the same credit rating bestowed on U.S. Treasury bonds — and the only rating acceptable to places like your pension fund. At this point I need to pause to make two disclaimers. First, this is a radically simplified version of Lewis’s somewhat simplified version of the mind-bendingly complex events that actually transpired in the subprime mortgage market. Second, I am almost certainly getting some of it wrong. In general, Lewis has a knack for making difficult things look easy: sabermetrics, collateralized debt obligations, writing bestsellers. He’s as deft as ever in The Big Short , but the material he’s obliged to grapple with would make a particle physicist turn pale. Also, it makes financial dimwits like me liable to miss a few things. The main point, however, is unmissable: the whole thing was a castle built on a cesspool. Sooner or later, the adjustable interest rates on the subprime mortgages held by millions of not-terribly-solvent Americans were going to adjust — upward. For the whole system to collapse at that point, the housing market didn’t need to fail. It didn’t even need to fall . It just had to stop growing as fast as it had during the boom years. And that’s exactly what happened. The market slowed, the homeowners defaulted, and all the fancy financial Frankensteins fell through the basement. Lewis’s protagonists, who had bet against them all along, made a killing. *** You could argue that The Big Short is about a lot of different things — about finance, hubris, turn-of-the-century democratic capitalism, Wall Street culture, American culture. All of that is true. But I read it (perhaps inevitably, given my own work ) as, at heart, a story about the social, personal, and intellectual circumstances that can produce dazzling rightness or staggering wrongness. (Check out this sidebar to see how the guys in The Big Short got it right, and what the rest of us can learn from them.) For readers of Lewis’s other work, that story might be familiar. In the prologue to The Big Short , Lewis positions it as a sequel to Liar’s Poker , his account of his own stint on 1980s-era Wall Street. I suppose he would know best, but to me, this newest book seems, instead, to be the intellectual scion of Moneyball . That, too, was an astonishing story about rightness and wrongness : about the insight of outsiders and the intransigence of insiders; about the ability of those outsiders to recognize and exploit the inefficiencies of the insiders’ ossified convictions; and about the social and intellectual forces that made it difficult for the insiders to grasp what was going on. Steve Eisman, Charlie Ledley, Greg Lippman, Michael Burry: these guys are to Wall Street what Bill James was to baseball. The Big Short is as good as Moneyball , but it isn’t as fun. It’s tough to sit back and revel in other people’s idiocy when it cost you your house, or annihilated your IRA, or sent your entire job market up in smoke. And if you can’t gloat over the losers here, you can’t wholly cheer for the winners, either. In Moneyball , there was nothing to interfere with the pleasure of rooting for the hopelessly outclassed, out-of-shape, bottom-of-the-barrel Oakland A’s. But the underdogs in The Big Short aren’t really underdogs. They are millionaires growing up to be billionaires. So are the heroes of this book really the good guys? For that matter, are they really even good? Lewis lets the moral ambiguity keep sloshing around as the story unfolds, which is to his credit, since that’s how moral ambiguity generally behaves. We are alternately charmed by his characters and reminded that they are not so different from all the other Wall Street shmucks “getting rich shuffling bits of paper around to no obvious social purpose.” We are also reminded that even a shmuck, once you get to know him, is seldom exclusively shmucky. And we see, too, that, to one degree or another, these men did try (Eisman and Lippman especially, although the latter for complicated reasons) to alert Wall Street to the impending crisis. None of them could ever figure out if Wall Street was too greedy to care about the message or too stupid to understand it. Regardless, the result was the same. Wall Street didn’t listen. The SEC didn’t listen. And, as Lewis tells it, his own colleagues — journalists at the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal — didn’t listen either. So Lewis’s protagonists were Cassandras, sort of — but only if Cassandra had placed a multi-billion-dollar bet against Troy and lived to tell the tale. However corrupt, fraudulent, and repellent they found the financial system, these men grasped it well enough to game it. In doing so, they became complicit in the crisis. Eisman’s right-hand man, a guy named Vincent Daniel, put it well. “The way we thought about it, which we didn’t like, was, ‘By shorting the market we’re creating the liquidity to keep the market going.’” Eisman concurred: “It was like feeding the monster. We fed the monster until it blew up.” When it did, it took a vast swath of humanity with it. Those people — the real underdogs of the financial crisis — are seldom glimpsed in The Big Short before its final pages, when Lewis turns his gaze to the much-mythologized Main Street, whose denizens are about to learn that they are the victims of a spectacular failure. Actually, the people doing the gazing are Steve Eisman and his partners, who sit down together on the steps of St. Patrick’s Cathedral in Manhattan on September 18, 2008, to try to take in what has happened. It is a lovely ending, understated yet lasting, like the toll of a bell that spreads rather than fades. But it says something about the larger story that the Main Street they gaze upon is Madison Avenue.

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Monsanto 7-State Probe Threatens Profit From 93% Hold on U.S. Soybean Crop

March 10, 2010

By Alison Fitzgerald March 10 (Bloomberg) — At least seven U.S. state attorneys general are investigating whether Monsanto Co., the world’s largest seed producer, has abused its market power to lock out competitors and raise prices. Iowa and Illinois, whose antitrust probes Monsanto disclosed previously, have joined with Ohio, Texas, Virginia and two other states in a working group coordinating the inquiries, according to investigators, farmers and seed dealers. They declined to identify the sixth and seventh states. The state investigations add to pressure on Monsanto over allegations of abusive competitive tactics. The U.S. Justice Department is probing the company’s marketing practices, and DuPont Co. has accused its rival in licensing litigation of anti-competitive actions. At stake are the costs to farmers who produce $80.3 billion a year in corn and soybeans, used in products ranging from Coca-Cola to cattle feed to ethanol. “Monsanto has become such a dominant player in the seed business that producers have real concerns that the price they pay for seed is going to be anywhere near reasonable,” said John Crabtree, a spokesman for the Center for Rural Affairs in Lyons, Nebraska, a nonprofit group that provides services to farm communities. “The fear is that the sky’s the limit.” Monsanto rose to dominance via its genetically engineered Roundup Ready seed line, which was in 93 percent of the soybeans and 82 percent of the corn produced in the U.S. last year. The gene Monsanto adds to the seeds allows crops to withstand use of its Roundup weed killer. Rebates, Incentives The states are probing whether Monsanto violated any laws by offering rebates to distributors for excluding rival seeds, imposing limits on combining the product with other genetic enhancements, or offering cash incentives to switch farmers to a more-expensive generation of seeds, according to one person involved in the probe who asked not to be named because he isn’t authorized to discuss it. The five states known to be part of the inquiry accounted for almost 39%, or $31 billion, of U.S. corn and soybeans last year, based on U.S. Department of Agriculture data. A state- level investigation, on top of the federal one, “can lengthen the lawsuit and potential settlements, and it can increase uncertainty and costs for Monsanto,” said Daniel Sokol, a law professor at the University of Florida in Gainesville who edits a blog on antitrust and competition policy. Monsanto Vice President Jim Tobin will address the concerns at a hearing March 12 in Ankeny, Iowa, where the U.S. Justice and Agriculture departments are holding a workshop on seed- industry competition. It’s the first of a series of sessions the agencies are sponsoring to examine whether consolidation in agriculture is harming competition. ‘Unsubstantiated Allegations’ “There have been unsubstantiated allegations of a lack of competition in the seed market for several years now,” said Kelli Powers , a spokeswoman for St. Louis-based Monsanto. “We’re confident an objective review will reveal competition is alive and flourishing in the seed market.” Monsanto has a “broad licensing approach that is “in fact pro-competitive,” she said. “We produced millions of pages of documents” for the state working group, said Scott Partridge , a Monsanto attorney, in an interview. “For about a year now they haven’t had any more questions.” Seed producers and dealers say the state group has spoken to them as recently as December about their Monsanto licensing agreements. The rebates investigators are exploring in the Monsanto case are similar to incentives that have figured in past antitrust inquiries that led to settlements, said Herb Hovenkamp a professor at the University of Iowa Law School in Iowa City and the author of “Antitrust Law,” a 23-volume text. FTC Sues Intel The Federal Trade Commission sued Intel Corp. in December alleging it used “threats and rewards,” including rebates, to coerce companies not to buy rivals’ computer chips. In a separate civil dispute, Intel agreed in November, without admitting any liability or fault, to pay $1.25 billion to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. to settle allegations Intel gave discounts to customers that avoided AMD products. Courts disagree on whether such financial incentives are anti-competitive, Hovenkamp said. “These things have been so controversial and so heavily litigated that some firms have taken preventative steps and just gotten rid of them,” Hovenkamp said. Monsanto phased out its market-share discounts as of last year, said Powers, the spokeswoman. Of Monsanto’s $11.7 billion in revenue in the fiscal year ended Aug. 31, 2009, $7.3 billion came from sales and licensing of seeds and seed genes. Revenue grew by an annual average of 17% from 2004 to 2009, as earnings expanded eight-fold to $2.11 billion, driven by genetically engineered products and acquisitions of other seed companies. Generic Roundup Revenue then declined as generic rivals to Roundup flooded into the U.S. from China. In the fiscal first quarter ended Nov. 30, Monsanto had a loss of $19 million as sales declined 36% to $1.70 billion. Monsanto lost 74 cents, or 1 percent, to close at $71.28 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Showing that Monsanto engaged in anti-competitive behavior that harmed residents of their states could enable the attorneys general to demand civil monetary damages in addition to any penalties that the Justice Department may seek, Hovenkamp said. In one soybean licensing agreement reviewed by Bloomberg, Monsanto offered the licensee financial incentives to favor Roundup Ready seeds and Roundup brand chemicals over those of competitors. The dealer’s agreement with Monsanto is confidential, and he asked that his name not be used. ‘You Had To’ Under the agreement, the licensee would earn a rebate of 7.5 percent of the royalty it pays Monsanto if Roundup Ready accounts for 70 percent of the dealer’s annual herbicide- resistant seed sales. The rebate is halved if the Roundup Ready share is between 50 percent and 75 percent, and isn’t paid at all below 50 percent. Similar terms were in Monsanto’s licensing agreements with Stine Seed Co. until Monsanto phased them out in recent years, according to Harry Stine, president and founder of the largest closely held seed company in the U.S., based in Adel, Iowa. “In order to get the large rebate they would give you, you had to minimize your sales of other companies’ seeds,” Stine said. “The rebates were so large that for all practical purposes you had to do it.” At one time, the requirement for earning the full rebate was as high as 90 percent, he said. Stine has a collaborative agreement to develop seeds with Monsanto, he said. Gene Restrictions The agreement reviewed by Bloomberg prohibited the dealer from combining the Roundup Ready trait with herbicide-tolerant traits that the licensee or other companies developed. It specifically bars the dealer from using any non-Monsanto genetic modification that makes crops tolerant to glyphosate, the herbicide found in Roundup. Such terms could be anti-competitive because Monsanto controls such a large share of the corn and soybean markets with its Roundup Ready gene, Hovenkamp said. Monsanto’s Partridge said the company routinely negotiates agreements that allow seed companies to combine Roundup Ready with genetic modifications of its competitors. “Monsanto has a demonstrated track record of both in- licensing and out-licensing trait technologies to support the development of stacked products,” he said in an interview. “We’ve done this more than any other company in this industry.” Monsanto is also under scrutiny because the rising price of its seeds has been a sore point for farmers, said Peter Carstensen, a antitrust professor at the University of Wisconsin Law School in Madison. Farmers’ Costs Rise “Buying seed used to be not terribly costly,” said Charles Benbrook, chief scientist at the Organic Center in Boulder, Colorado, who in December completed a study of 35 years of seed pricing. “Now farmers are locked into these high seed costs on an annual basis.” The study showed that soybean farmers spent between 4 percent and 8 percent of their farm income on seeds from 1975 through 1997. Last year, farmers who planted genetically modified soybeans spent 16.4 percent of their income on seeds, it found. Monsanto’s licensing royalty on soybean seeds with the Roundup Ready trait climbed to $15.65 for each 140,000-seed bag last year from about $6.50 a decade ago, according to the owner of one seed company. A bag of Roundup Ready seed sells for about $35 and can plant three-quarters of an acre (0.3 hectare). He asked not to be named because the terms are confidential under his licensing agreement. Monsanto sells him seeds including the genetic trait, which he then reproduces and sells under his own brand, the person said. ‘Triple Stack’ Corn Farmers who adopt Monsanto’s Roundup Ready 2 Yield technology, being introduced this year as a replacement for Roundup Ready, will have to pay a royalty of as much as $39.75 a bag, according to documents reviewed by Bloomberg. Cal Dalton, a farmer in Pardeeville, Wisconsin, said he switched to a competitor last year when Monsanto sought a $30 price increase, to $210 a bag, for its “triple stack” corn seed, a line that resists glyphosate, rootworm, and corn borers. Monsanto still earned a royalty on the purchase because the seeds he bought carried the Roundup Ready trait, he said. The list price for Monsanto’s “Yieldgard VT Triple” brand of triple-stack corn seed rose to about $277.50 a bag this year from $201.83 in 2008, based on seed prices per acre provided by Powers, the spokeswoman. She declined to discuss prices or royalties individual customers pay. Roundup Ready 2 In the licensing agreement reviewed by Bloomberg, Monsanto agreed to rebate to the dealer as much as 4% of the dealer’s royalty if he developed a plan to move his customers from Roundup Ready to Roundup Ready 2. Monsanto says Roundup Ready 2 soybean seeds boost crop yields by 4.7 bushels an acre compared with traditional Roundup Ready. Soybeans yielded on average 44 bushels an acre last year, according to the USDA. Stine, who said he’s been on conference calls with the state attorneys general group to discuss the Monsanto investigation, hasn’t made up his mind whether Monsanto’s dealings are anticompetitive. “On the one hand,” Monsanto is “hard to get along with and very restrictive,” Stine said. “However, in general, their traits and products have been superior to other companies’.” To contact the reporter on this story: Alison Fitzgerald in Washington at Afitzgerald2@bloomberg.net .

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Harvard’s Rogoff Gives Legs to China Crash Talk: William Pesek

March 1, 2010

Commentary by William Pesek March 1 (Bloomberg) — The tale had Tom Clancy written all over it, with the CIA investigating a far-off economy out of concern that its collapse might pose problems for America. That reportedly happened in 2002 as Japanese deflation threatened to spread around the globe. If I were a Central Intelligence Agency bigwig, I would now be setting up task forces on risks coming from China. Let’s not stop there. Add the U.S. into the mix and study what a crackup within the so-called Group of Two would mean for the world economy. It wouldn’t be pretty. Pessimistic stuff, yes. Yet when the U.S. secretary of state says the record U.S. budget deficit and debt are stoking national-security concerns, you know the world is off kilter. Meanwhile, short-seller Jim Chanos is finding more and more company as he bets on a Chinese crash. It’s time to consider the systemic fallout from a Chinese crisis. It could cause recessions around the world. As 2010 unfolds, such views are developing legs. It’s one thing when Chanos, of New York-based Kynikos Associates Ltd., speaks of a bust. Ditto for Marc Faber , publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom in Hong Kong. It’s quite another when the likes of Harvard University’s Kenneth Rogoff warn of a collapse of China’s debt-fueled bubble within 10 years. China Is Due The former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund can’t be dismissed as talking his investment position. What’s more, Rogoff offers perhaps the simplest reason why China may falter: It’s due. Remember that five of the most frightening words in economics are: “This time things are different.” Well, can you see where this story is going? “If there’s a this-time-is-different story in the world right now, it’s China,” Rogoff said at a conference in Tokyo last week. People, he added, say China “won’t have a financial crisis because there’s central planning, because there’s a high savings rate, because there’s a large pool of labor. I say, of course China will have a financial crisis one day.” It’s a point that few China bulls allow. For all the merits of China’s model — massive public spending, export-driven growth, cheap labor costs — it’s doubtful it can beat the system, so to speak. No emerging nation has avoided a crisis that sent growth reeling and markets plunging. Not one. Not Unexpected If a Chinese crisis occurs, it won’t be an entirely unexpected event. Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates Inc. in Denver, for example, raised eyebrows with a Feb. 12 report titled “China: The Mother of All Black Swans.” Could China be the first emerging economy to escape trouble? It’s comforting to think so, and officials in Beijing have had a great year. Stimulus efforts are producing growth of about 10 percent. And investors haven’t made loads of money betting against China. China will need to spend even more to maintain rapid growth. Japan is mired in deflation, Europe is struggling to keep Greece afloat and U.S. unemployment is worsening. Stimulus efforts were always about holding Asia over until U.S. consumers recovered. The worst recession since the 1930s is still filtering through the biggest economy. So, China is largely on its own in a hostile global environment. Trouble there is worth exploring before it’s too late. Rising Influence “We would learn just how important China is when that happens,” Rogoff said in an interview last week. Nomura Holdings Inc. says China may provide more than a third of world growth this year as it surpasses Japan’s economy. So we’re not talking about Thailand crashing. We’re talking about what will soon be the second-biggest economy, one on which the world is increasingly relying. China’s influence explains why Hillary Clinton has U.S. Treasuries on her mind. We first saw that preoccupation in February 2009, when Clinton made her maiden trip to Beijing as secretary of state. She shelved human-rights issues in favor of talking up debt. The White House projects a $1.6 trillion budget deficit for the 2010 fiscal year, following $1.4 trillion in 2009. It leaves Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner with quite a bond-sales job. Only, China might not be a reliable buyer of U.S. debt if it needs that money at home to boost growth. Victor Shih of Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois, is focusing on another $1.6 trillion figure. That’s how much debt he estimates China’s local governments are sitting on. If the argument Shih fleshed out in a Feb. 8 piece in the Wall Street Journal is correct, local debt alone is one-third of China’s 2009 gross domestic product and 70 percent of foreign- exchange reserves. Between the U.S. and China, we’re talking lots and lots of debt. Any unraveling on either side of the Pacific would devastate the global economy. It’s becoming less of a Black Swan scenario, and more a crisis unfolding in slow motion. G-2 risks should be of growing concern to investors , the CIA and perhaps even thriller writers. ( William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.) Click on “Send Comment” in the sidebar display to send a letter to the editor. To contact the writer of this column: William Pesek in Tokyo at wpesek@bloomberg.net

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Dennis Santiago: Little Bank Savvy on the Oregon Trail

February 5, 2010

During the first week of the Move Your Money campaign one of the towns complaining loudly that there weren’t enough well rated little banks showing up in the MYM zip code tool in their area was Portland, Oregon. I put it in the back of my mind to revisit this part of the world at a later date to understand just how do the little banks living there get along. The Willlamette River — I’m told pronounced “will lah met” — that bisects the city of Portland is so named because it is the French pronunciation of a village of the Clackamas Indians. And so we find little Willamette Community Bank and it’s CEO Dave Wood looking out of his office window surrounded by mega banks Key Bank, Wells Fargo, Chase, USB and northern regional players Washington Federal and Umpqua. Six year old Willamette Community (Ticker: WMCB) was an “A” rated bank in the IRA bank stress system in the 3rd Quarter of 2009 and I’m happy to report that the preliminary 2009 end of year calculation in our system raises that rating to an “A+” based on our look at their 1/20/2010 CDR filing. When I spoke to Dave he carefully recounted how a year of diligence and discipline has turned this institution that specializes in lending to local small businesses into a zero current defaults, four-year weighted average maturity, eleven percent exposure at default banking operation. Those, ladies and gentlemen, are stellar performance metrics. Willamette Community does this not by competing on price against its’ gargantuan neighbors but on emphasizing superior reputation and service. If you call their telephone number a real person answers you. They ask what they can do for you and they transfer you to another real human being. Is that cool or what? Mr. Wood backs this up by staffing his 20 person bank with experienced bankers who understand the landscape of local lending and can work with clients to find the best solutions to their needs. These are, he notes, capabilities not as available to his larger neighbors because their internal processes are more rigid, disjoint and restrictive with regards to delivering the kind of service oriented solutions banking his customers need. Is he right? A minuscule 0.72% troubled lending percentage says yeah his business plan is probably onto something here. The market success proof is in the pudding of course and the numbers say Willamette Community’s model does seem to mean something to their market because WMCB has been growing at about $1 million dollars of new deposits per month for a number of months now. They did grow by another $1M in January 2010 although Mr. Wood wasn’t able to pinpoint any transfers directly attributable to Move Your Money. He takes the larger view attributing his bank’s progress to what he sees to be a growing recognition by people that good banking is attractive to good people. I heartily agree with him. It’s also my observation that blossoming of American common sense intuition is something the Move Your Money campaign has tapped into and helped amplify but not invented. It’s been there all along and it’s not going to go away. Dave Wood and company are not sitting still. They want more business in the Portland area and their IRA bank report readout shows they are indeed investing to grow in that direction. We track an 86% efficiency ratio for the bank which gets to today’s bank math lesson. Efficiency ratio is a measure of how much money it costs a bank to make a buck. The classic benchmark number is 65% which means it costs 65 cents of expenses to earn one dollar of revenue. Lower numbers mean you are coasting on a platform of loyal depositors. Higher numbers mean you are expending more effort to either attract new customers or retain skittish ones. The worst business scenario is drowning in marketing costs the way Pasadena’s IndyMac was in May 2008 at an efficiency ratio of 236% chasing what bankers call “hot money” — opportunistic CD’s with little or no loyalty to the bank. What I like about WMCB is that they are working on growing by emphasizing a quality small business lending model sitting on top of a platform of superior quality core deposits — that’s your local deposits to you people of Portland who sent all those emails complaining there weren’t enough of these kinds of banks in your area. If it helps you to take the measure of the man, Dave Wood’s quote is “I’ll put my group of twenty up against any big bank in this town any day.” Semper Fi Dave! Next let’s jump across the river to Oregon City and visit with Larry Baker, CEO of Lewis & Clark Bank. Yes I am smiling about the poetry of these two bank names bookending the same article. This $110 million dollar single branch bank also rated “A” by IRA in the 3rd Quarter of 2009 and again shows as an “A” per our preliminary review of their 1/20/2010 CDR filings for the period ending 12/31/2009. Larry Baker’s bank has also been growing at around $722K per month in new deposits in the last quarter of 2009. He reports that January was a little slower for them with around $398K in new deposits but one of those was a whopper $240K that he’s pretty sure was prompted by something, maybe Move Your Money. He also reports another $80K event in February also from a new customer coming in from a larger bank. This is splendid stuff because Lewis & Clark, like Willamette Community, also specializes in lending to small businesses in the local area. They also have a core philosophy of sitting down with customers to solve problems and pride themselves on having the experience and resourcefulness of see the range of available options and ideas. You talk to people you get to know. You work with the same loan officer over the long term. Heads up the rest of these United States. These aren’t the only two banks I’ve heard this theme music refraining repeatedly in my ear this last month. Larry notes that “banks like us can benefit greatly by having a few people transfer their balances” into his bank. That’s a call to common sense action if I ever heard one. Never mind this latest government TARP CPP preferred stock funded by future taxpayer liabilities where you owe quarterly dividends at 5% or at 1% if you tow the line and do what the U.S. Treasury dictates to your bank. Do you think Washington will ever figure out that all these banks out in the provinces already know that TARP is a “Scarlet Letter”? Heck man! These guys are already executing on plans to do this with good old fashioned private ordinary people money. Mr. Baker’s bank costs a little more to run than Mr. Wood’s at efficiency ratio of 102.7% per our last calculation. Our look at the readout sheet indicated it’s due to a bit more brokered deposits than Lewis & Clark would probably like and Mr. Baker acknowledges he’s quite keen to replace these with core deposits from local patrons to the extent possible. He’d like you to consider opening a checking account or even an IRA (the retirement kind) with his bank. And what kind of service can you get from this single branch bank? Start with the reception person who answers the incoming line at Lewis & Clark might actually have a better located office than the CEO. Next did you know deposits can be made in other parts of town because they are part of a correspondent group in the Portland area where you can drop off your money on a special deposit slip at one bank and the ACH transaction forwards into your account by the next day? Ok so these are sort of nice. Are you ready for the really good part? So if you go on vacation to some other part of the country and use an ATM and they’ll credit back the transaction fee to your account. That good folk of Portland means the ATM’s of the world are your globetrotting oyster bed thanks to banks like Lewis & Clark. Like I said I do love the poetry of this one. Ok it’s time for the corny line. Yes indeed there is a lot of savvy in Willamette Valley. Is it safe for me to show my face in Portland again?

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AIG’s Udvar-Hazy Retires as Plane-Leasing CEO Amid Effort to Sell Business

February 5, 2010

By Susanna Ray Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — American International Group Inc .’s Steven Udvar-Hazy stepped down as chief executive officer of the bailed-out insurer’s plane-leasing unit he founded 37 years ago as the parent company prepares to sell jets to help repay debt. John Plueger , president and chief operating officer, will take over today as acting CEO of International Lease Finance Corp. , AIG said in a statement last night. Udvar-Hazy, who sold the company to AIG in 1990, gave up the chairmanship of the unit to AIG board member Douglas Steenland in December. ILFC, based in Los Angeles, has been unable to tap its usual sources of funding since the insurer’s bailout, forcing AIG to prop up the unit with a $1.7 billion credit line in March and $2 billion in October. Udvar-Hazy was in talks to buy as much as a $4.5 billion chunk of ILFC’s fleet to start a new firm, people familiar with the matter said in October. “We anticipate selling some ILFC assets in the future,” AIG CEO Robert H. Benmosche said in the statement. “We continue to review other options, including accessing the capital markets through secured debt financing.” Udvar-Hazy, 63, and Plueger, 55, declined to comment. Mark Herr , a spokesman for New York-based AIG, also wouldn’t discuss the matter. Private-equity firms Onex Corp. and Greenbriar Equity Group LLC backed Udvar-Hazy in his bid to start a new company, the people said. ILFC has about 1,000 aircraft in its fleet valued at more than $44 billion. An Outsider “Maybe Steve has to actually step out and become an outsider before he can step back in to what’s a new, recast organization,” said George Hamlin , president of Fairfax, Virginia-based Hamlin Transportation Consulting. “There’s a very strong chance that Steve will stay in the business, but maybe he’s got something else entirely in his mind.” AIG is selling assets to repay a $182.3 billion government rescue. The company has struck deals to raise more than $12 billion, divesting a U.S. auto insurer, an equipment guarantor and a Japanese office tower. MetLife Inc., the biggest U.S. life insurer, is in talks to buy a non-U.S. life unit from AIG. ILFC, the biggest customer for both Boeing Co. and Airbus SAS , has more than $4 billion of debt maturing in the first nine months of 2010. It was cut to the lowest investment-grade level by Standard & Poor’s on Jan. 25 on the prospect the insurer may take “several years” to sell the business. Moody’s Investors Service cut the company to junk in December on concern that AIG may cut off funding this year. What’s Next? “The factors that were beating up most of ILFC’s portfolio were taking place with or without him,” said Richard Aboulafia , an analyst at the Teal Group, a Fairfax, Virginia-based aviation consulting firm. “What he does next will have an impact on perceptions of ILFC’s value.” The uncertainty around ILFC’s ownership and financing prevented the company from placing any orders last year and weighed on sales at Airbus and Boeing. In prior slumps in air travel, leasing companies increased their pace of buying as airlines scaled back. As of Sept. 30 , ILFC had contracts to buy 125 aircraft from the two planemakers through 2019 with a purchase price of $14 billion. The company had about $31 billion in total debt at the end of the third quarter. Plueger has worked at ILFC for 23 years and has been president and COO since 1995, responsible for worldwide sales and marketing efforts and relationships with the manufacturers, AIG said. Steenland, who will remain non-executive chairman, was CEO of Northwest Airlines Inc. until the carrier was bought by Delta Air Lines Inc. in October 2008, and became a director of AIG in June 2009. Udvar-Hazy is among more than 50 AIG managers to leave after the 2008 bailout. Edmund Tse stepped down in 2009 as a senior vice chairman after 48 years with the firm. Matthew Winter was named by Allstate Corp. in October to run its life insurance business after being AIG’s vice chairman of transition planning and administration. Kevin Kelley left AIG in 2008 to become CEO of Ironshore Inc. To contact the reporter on this story: Susanna Ray in Seattle at sray7@bloomberg.net

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War Reporter Behind Nazi Invasion Scoop Fights for Her Savings at Age 98

January 31, 2010

By Le-Min Lim Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) — In a 65-square-meter rented apartment in Hong Kong, Clare Hollingworth, 98 and almost blind, leans forward from the couch where she now spends many of her waking hours, to explain the thrills of being a war correspondent. “It’s adventurous, going out and jumping off low-flying aircraft,” says Hollingworth, who, as a novice reporter with the Daily Telegraph of London spotted German tanks massing at the border facing Poland in late August 1939, and filed a story warning of an imminent invasion. The twice-married widow evokes helping Jewish and anti- German refugees obtain papers to flee Poland, her privileged days growing up as the daughter of a boot manufacturer in Knighton, Leicester, and “foolish mistakes” with her money. She still can speak some French (“C’est mauvais!” It’s bad!) and Russian (“Khleb, vino, piva.” Bread, wine, beer.) Her eyes lit up at the mention of Katowice, the Polish border town from where she broke the news on World War II. “How much does it cost to get into Poland? Roughly,” she asks, clutching the hand of her great nephew, Patrick Garrett, who runs an airline’s Russia business and flies in regularly from Moscow to visit. Her scoop began a six-decade career as a war correspondent, covering conflicts in Algeria, Vietnam, Aden and the Middle East. She chronicled the fall of the Balkan states to Communism, Cold War espionage, including the case of the British journalist and Soviet double-agent Kim Philby, and China’s Cultural Revolution. In 1981, she came to Hong Kong to cover Asia for the Sunday Telegraph. Witnessing History “Clare is an icon. Hers was the time before the electronic media, when journalists were more important for being the eyewitnesses to historic events,” says Ernst Herb, an ex- president of Hong Kong’s Foreign Correspondents Club . Today, Hollingworth has about 50 percent of hearing in her right ear; a possible stroke in March has damaged her short-term memory and dulled her lucidity. Yet, with help from family, she’s fighting for the return of almost half her savings from Ted Thomas, an erstwhile friend and public-relations man. Thomas, who’s also a retired Hong Kong government spokesman, was told by the city’s court on Oct. 27, 2009, to pay the rest of the HK$2.23 million ($286,806) he removed from Hollingworth’s bank account in August 2003 after she fell and broke her hip. On Nov. 18, Thomas applied to the court to avoid paying the sum, alleging that most of it was legal fees incurred by Hollingworth’s side. The court rejected his request in December; Thomas says he’s deciding what to do. ‘Not Paying’ “I’m not paying,” says Thomas, 80, who looks two decades younger, in an interview at the FCC. The Poynton, Cheshire, native says he would rather file for bankruptcy than pay the full sum because the money is “paid to greedy lawyers who keep churning this case.” Garrett, with power of attorney over Hollingworth’s affairs, has been suing for her, and says he had to take Thomas to court in 2006 because he wouldn’t give a satisfactory account of what he did with her money despite repeated requests. A July 2006 court ruling backed Garrett, ordering Thomas to pay Hollingworth the cost of the lawsuit. Thomas is still holding out. Hollingworth isn’t destitute, says Garrett, 42, and uses her savings and a Telegraph pension to pay for her HK$13,500-a- month rent and two live-in Filipina helpers. Her Hong Kong savings are less than the money Thomas owes and she might have to sell her apartment in Paris in an emergency. Shoes, Passport These days, Hollingworth doesn’t mention Thomas, though she’s prone to fears of not having money that leave her sleepless. She watches the British Broadcasting Corp. news channel daily and insists on sleeping with her shoes by the bedside and having her passport within reach, as if she were in a war zone, says Garrett. “She still considers herself a journalist, not someone retired,” he says. Thomas says he took on a bigger role in handling Hollingworth’s finances around 2001 and 2002 when he saw her cry out offers of free drinks to FCC members and thought she might be “losing” her mind. In January 2003, seven months before the fall that broke her hip, Thomas says she gave him signing rights to her bank account so he could pay her bills. On Aug. 18, 2003, Thomas got a call for help from Hollingworth’s live-in maid, went to the apartment to find the aged reporter on the floor in agony and sent her to a hospital. For the next 10 days, he withdrew a total of HK$1.47 million from her Standard Chartered Plc account by means of six checks. Thomas has denied stealing the money and says it was used to help Hollingworth invest, pay hospital bills and the salary of her live-in maid while she recovered. Film Role “It’s remarkable she survived,” he says. Thomas says that he can’t repay Hollingworth even if he wanted to because he has no money. Thomas says he gets a monthly pension of HK$17,000, HK$12,000 of which is spent on renting his flat near the central business district and another part on the international-school fees of his 16-year-old son by his third wife, ex-reporter Nicola Parkinson; they separated 12 years ago. He retains membership at some of the city’s most prestigious establishments such as the Hong Kong Club , which he visits every other day to exercise and play poker. Thomas says that he had a speaking part in the 2008 film “Largo Winch,” starring Kristin Scott Thomas , that paid HK$100,000. Calling the lawsuit “an act of malice,” Thomas says he won’t bow to pressure to pay the full sum. Meanwhile, on her daily visit to the FCC, Hollingworth occupies the same corner table in the ground-floor dining room where she sat scribbling notes and reading the papers over white wine and smoked salmon in healthier years. These days, she receives the greetings of well-wishers and passers-by with dignified silence. “She’s a tough old bird,” says Garrett. “She’ll be around for a while.” To contact the writer on the story: Le-Min Lim in Hong Kong at lmlim@bloomberg.net .

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Obama, Alito Dis Each Other in Free Speech Brawl: Ann Woolner

January 29, 2010

Commentary by Ann Woolner Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — Whether you think it outrageous or terrific that the U.S. Supreme Court last week ruled corporate funds can pay for political ads, or if you don’t much care, there is humor to be mined in a flap the decision created this week. The case is about free speech in politics, right? But when President Barack Obama slammed the decision during his State of the Union speech, conservatives (who mostly like the ruling) ripped him for speaking so freely. Free speech has its limits, even in politics, it would seem. And yet, following a Republican tradition, ex-President George W. Bush talked down the federal bench all the time. It was a campaign theme for him to trash “activist judges.” Apparently it’s fine for presidents or candidates to excoriate rulings when the justices aren’t in the same room. But it’s an appalling breach of decorum for the president to do it right to the justices’ faces. Never before had a president used this constitutionally mandated and, now, nationally televised speech to do so. Why, it’s downright rude. Six of the nine justices, all of them robed, occupied seats roughly beneath Obama’s nose, in full view of the cameras. As is their custom, they sat there stone-faced throughout the talk to show that they are above the partisan fray. When Obama delivered lines that brought Democrats or even Republicans in the chamber to their feet in thunderous applause, the justices hardly even blinked. All the justices sat expressionless. All, save one. Alito’s Creased Brow When Obama predicted the ruling would “open the floodgates for special interests,” Justice Samuel Alito pulled his chin in, closed his eyes, shook his head “no” and creased his brow. Then he mumbled something which, to untrained lip readers such as myself, looked like “that’s not true.” Whatever he said, his head shaking made clear he thought the president had said something wrong. However inaudible, it was the judicial equivalent of Representative Joe Wilson shouting “You lie” when Obama addressed Congress in September on health care. So while the right slammed Obama for speaking his mind, the left took out after Alito for mouthing his. That was “a serious and substantive breach of protocol,” Glenn Greenwald wrote for Salon. It “only further undermines the credibility of the court” for a justice to show himself to be so partisan. Court Precedent Isn’t it a tad late to worry about that? We don’t know exactly which part of Obama’s remarks Alito was reacting to. It could have been the claim that the ruling eviscerated 100 years of law. Or it might have been the part about floodgates opening for special interests. In any case, the 5-4 ruling didn’t completely overturn a century’s worth of restrictions. But it did throw out what had been the practice for decades under federal law and court precedent. Whether last week’s ruling will open floodgates of corporate spending is anyone’s guess. No question that companies and, presumably, unions can now run pre-election ads. And they no longer have to form political action committees and seek contributions from individuals to do it. They can pour corporate funds into political advertising if they want, though they still can’t contribute directly to a candidate’s campaign fund. And this brings us to yet another twist. Conservatives define a judicial activist as a judge who legislates from the bench, who tosses out perfectly good laws simply because he doesn’t like them. Showing Disdain That is exactly what the conservative wing of the court, plus swing voter Anthony Kennedy , did when it ruled in the election case last week. The justices showed disdain, not the much-heralded deference, to elected lawmakers who held hearings and found facts and hammered away for years to fashion the law that five justices so cavalierly set aside. And the court did it even though no one asked it to. Not content with the mundane task of answering a narrow question, the justices stretched to reverse practices that neither side had complained about. And they threw out precedent, too, which they aren’t supposed to do so casually. How much more activist can you get? This is the opposite of judicial restraint. Change in Composition As the court’s dissenters pointed out, the only thing that had changed between the time of the court’s previous rulings on the topic and the latest one was the composition of the court. Let’s see. They must be talking about Bush’s two appointees, which were his answer to judicial activism. Ha! But that’s not all, as the infomercials say. While on the subject of campaign finance, let’s recall that candidate Obama pledged to forgo private contributions in favor of public funding for his campaign but changed his mind when he realized he could get more money from donors. Isn’t it funny that he now wants laws to restrict corporate financing of elections? So while I think Obama was confrontational during his speech and Alito thin-skinned, the irony of it all makes the whole thing amusing. To top it off, one of Obama’s supposed goals in the speech was to try to ease partisan sniping, to become a balm during these contentious times. What a hoot. But come to think of it, it isn’t especially funny. ( Ann Woolner is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.) Click on “Send Comment” in sidebar display to send a letter to the editor. To contact the writer of this column: Ann Woolner in Atlanta at awoolner@bloomberg.net .

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Cooper Manning Finds Niche in Energy Stocks, Leaving Football to Brothers

January 29, 2010

By David Wethe Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — Cooper Manning , who’s about to attend the third Super Bowl in four years involving a team led by one of his brothers, was looking for shelter from his family fame when he stumbled into the oil patch after college. The 35-year-old Manning, a partner at energy investment firm Howard Weil Inc. in New Orleans, passed up jobs to become a broadcaster or a sports agent because he’d be forever pegged to his younger brother Peyton Manning . The Indianapolis Colts quarterback just won a record fourth National Football League Most Valuable Player award and will lead the team against the New Orleans Saints in the Super Bowl on Feb. 7 in Miami. Cooper Manning, who is 6-foot-4, was recruited to play wide receiver at the University of Mississippi. His football career was cut short when his doctors diagnosed a congenital narrowing of the spinal canal. He said he has no regrets about how things turned out. “The energy business is kind of a good ol’ boy business,” he said in a telephone interview. “If you can drink a cold beer and make somebody laugh, you can probably get up the ranks quicker than other folks. I kind of fit in.” Manning, whose youngest brother, Eli Manning , led the New York Giants to victory in the 2008 Super Bowl, graduated with a degree in broadcast journalism. He then worked a few odd jobs on radio talk shows and traveled around the country interviewing to be a sports agent. Getting Off ‘Scholarship’ As the oldest son of Archie Manning , who starred at quarterback for the Saints in the 1970s, Cooper Manning may have had more doors open to him than the average 22-year-old. He said he decided to “get off scholarship from my parents” and took a sales job in New Orleans at a small company, Seismic Exchange Inc. After three years of selling seismic data, which oil and natural-gas producers use to help identify petroleum deposits, Manning said he heard about a job at Howard Weil in 2000. Manning, who befriended current Saints quarterback Drew Brees out of a love for “southern hospitality,” said he was due for a culture shock. He now sells energy stocks to institutional investors. “This is a pretty greedy industry,” he said. “I grew up where you weren’t supposed to talk about money. You just never mentioned it. You all of a sudden get into a business where the whole premise of all your clients, all they’re trying to do every day is generate returns and make money.” Citigroup Deal Colleagues on the 35th floor of the firm’s headquarters overlooking the French Quarter said Manning has become one of Howard Weil’s top sales people. Manning was part of a group of employees who pooled their money to buy the firm when its previous owner, Legg Mason Inc., included the unit in a December 2005 asset swap with Citigroup Inc. “He’s just one of the greatest guys you’d ever want to be on the field with,” said Andrew Rosenberg , a partner at Howard Weil. “The fact is, this is his playing field.” Manning said he doesn’t try to exploit his family’s celebrity status. One client who learned of the connection after four years of working with Manning was angry that he hadn’t told him. “It didn’t pop up,” Manning said. “If you can’t help people make money, that sort of stuff will fade pretty quick. I have a lot of clients who don’t give a hoot about football, much less Peyton and Eli.” Lighter Side “Coop,” as Manning is known to co-workers, is both a class clown and a hard worker, said Paul Pursley , president of Howard Weil. Tony Reginelli coached the two older Manning brothers at the private Isidore Newman School in New Orleans. Eli Manning, who is almost seven years younger than Cooper, played there after Reginelli retired. Peyton Manning, 33, was always “jumping on players” in the huddle and demanding perfection, Reginelli said. “Cooper comes in and he probably tells them a joke and relaxes them.” It’s no different today when Cooper and Peyton talk on the phone. “We talk about everything under the sun,” Cooper Manning said. “Maybe just touch on the game a little bit, but mostly about something to keep his mind off of it and tell him something that’s funny.” Hometown vs. Family Cooper Manning said he last saw Brees on Jan. 9, when the Saints quarterback and his wife came to his house to watch the Dallas Cowboys play the Philadelphia Eagles in the opening round of the NFL playoffs. “My kids hounded him in their full Saints gear,” Manning said. “He’s a hard guy to pull against.” As the Saints play in their first Super Bowl after more than four decades of trying to get there, family ties won’t allow Manning to root for his hometown team. “It’s a little awkward,” he said. His brothers’ success makes it all the more difficult to hide in the shadows. “With those guys getting more notoriety, it’s been a little more difficult to remain anonymous,” Manning said. To contact the reporter on this story: David Wethe in Houston at dwethe@bloomberg.net .

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Robert Teitelman: Raising the curtain on Paulson’s ‘On the Brink’

January 28, 2010

On Monday Henry Paulson’s book “On the Brink” will be officially published. (For true devotees, the Kindle version is available at 12:01 a.m. on Feb. 1, making this a kind of Harry Potter-like event. Ah, magic.) Now, even as the flood tide of books about every conceivable aspect of the crisis threatens to wash over the bulkhead of our sanity, Paulson’s retelling is the one we’ve been waiting for. After all, he’s the only principal player in the panic phase of the financial crisis that has so far chosen to put his thoughts down on paper, or e-ink, as opposed to defensively parrying hostile questions from congressmen, or whispering recollections to journalists. This may not produce either a page-turner or a host of revelations. Indeed, given Paulson’s ambivalence about opening up to the public, and the obvious complexities of the man, it would be surprising if he did. Here’s what I fully expect him to say. TARP was a swell idea that saved the world. He had no choice but to let Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. go (moral hazard and all that). He did not favor Goldman, Sachs & Co. (NYSE:GS), except that a failure of that firm would mean the end of civilization as we know it. Ben Bernanke and Timothy Geithner acted heroically under his direction. Everybody was really tired. You had to be there to understand why Geithner didn’t ask Goldman Sachs for a haircut on the American International Group Inc. (NYSE:AIG) collateral. He was always really tired. Free markets are best. Regulation is important but let’s not stifle innovation, entrepreneurialism, etc. Bush was a great guy, who let me do my thing. That said, there are topics I hope he tackles, but certainly don’t know if he will. First, very few saw the bubble building. But very few had a perch like the Treasury secretary. When did he realize this was going to be more than just a cyclical hiccup? Did he ever really ponder either the break between real estate prices and any sense of underlying value? Did he worry whether the short-term leverage that kept Wall Street humming would last forever? Was he concerned about credit default swaps before they slapped him in the face? Second, what was he thinking and doing between the fall of Bear Stearns Cos. and the collapse of Lehman? There are several parts to this. What was his relationship to Dick Fuld at Lehman and what was his evaluation of Fuld’s ability to save that firm? Did he think he was out of control? A number of accounts describe Paulson urging Fuld to sell the firm during the summer of 2008, but how complete a view did he have of Lehman’s difficulties — and how early? Why didn’t Treasury, or the Federal Reserve, develop a better grasp of Lehman’s true interconnectivity in those months between Bear and Lehman? Why didn’t someone map out the consequences of a Lehman bankruptcy on, say, credit default swaps or the money markets? Was that not possible? And if that’s the case, isn’t that a reason to limit certain risks going forward? In short, how could he and Bernanke say before the Lehman failure that counterparties had had enough time to disengage from Lehman? The third topic involves the dynamic between major players — or the lack of dynamic. This is an area that the major “you-were-there” books on the crisis provide only sketchy information. What was the relationship between Bernanke and Paulson from Bear onwards? Was Bernanke (and his man Geithner in New York) simply compliant, or was there a steady interchange of differences and debate? And if so, on what subjects? Paulson, by all accounts, made the sudden decision to force a low-ball bid on Bear. True, and how’s he feel about that now? And Paulson often gets credit (or blame) for the decision to let Lehman go. (Both Bernanke and Paulson’s explanation for the Lehman decision has shifted over time, which could use some explaining.) At any time before the TARP, was Paulson able to think ahead systemically? Did he recognize that he was leaving the Fed out on a long limb with the Bear rescue, and all but inviting the kind of politicization that is now occurring? Did Bernanke raise objections to, say, opening the discount window to Wall Street or accepting Goldman and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) as bank holding companies, after rejecting Lehman? And what about the Securities and Exchange Commission, which seemed to have effectively no role in anything. What was that all about? Was Christopher Cox really that lame — and what does that say about the Bush administration, deregulation or a reformed regulatory system? Fourth, can Paulson discuss what may have been his greatest weakness throughout the crisis, his inability to deal effectively with the public and with the toxic politics released by the crisis and recession? Did he realize at the time how his tendency to suddenly change his mind — save Bear, let Lehman go, use the TARP to buy back assets, use it to inject capital — steadily undermined his standing with a frightened public and poisoned his relations with Congress? Did he foresee the damage he was doing to himself, the rescue and Goldman Sachs by continually hiring former Goldmanites for positions of power? Finally, how does he feel about the three decades or so of financial deregulatin now? How would he reform the financial system, particularly in regard to too-big-to-fail and moral hazard? And where does he think Goldman fits into a more prudent financial system? Personally, it often seems to me that Paulson, Bernanke and Geithner have been unduly castigated for aspects of the bailout. In those few months, these men performed great feats under difficult conditions. That said there are major issues that only they, who stood at the center of the storm, can tell us. How did they miss it? Why weren’t they more prepared when the storm broke, particularly in the period between Bear and Lehman? There is not a doubt in the world that these men — these three in particular — were smart, deeply experienced in fortuitous ways (Bernanke on the Great Depression, Geithner with his Japan and Asia crisis background, Paulson running the pre-eminent investment bank in the world) and working as hard as they could. But what kind of guarantee is that for future crises? And that’s the real point here. We should not have to take that risk again. The real lessons from this experience should help us to avoid coming so close to the brink again. We’ll see if Paulson helps this process. – Robert Teitelman Robert Teitelman is editor in chief of The Deal.

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Fed Officials Consider Adopting Interest on Reserves as New Benchmark Rate

January 25, 2010

By Scott Lanman Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve policy makers are considering adopting a new benchmark interest rate to replace the one they’ve used for the last two decades. The central bank has been unable to control the federal funds rate since the September 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., when it began flooding financial markets with $1 trillion to prevent the economy from collapsing. Officials, who start a two-day meeting today, have said they may replace or supplement the fed funds rate with interest paid on excess bank reserves. “One option you might want to consider is that our policy rate is the interest rate on excess reserves and we let the fed funds rate trade with some spread to that,” Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker told reporters on Jan. 8 in Linthicum, Maryland. The central bank needs to have an effective policy rate in place when it starts to raise interest rates from record lows to keep inflation in check, said Marvin Goodfriend , a former Fed economist. Policy makers are concerned that the Fed funds rate, at which banks borrow from each other in the overnight market, may fail to meet the new target, damaging their credibility and their ability to control inflation as the economy recovers. The choice of a benchmark is “front line of defense against inflation, and also it’s at the heart of the central bank being able to precisely and flexibly guide interest-rate policy in the recovery,” said Goodfriend , now a professor at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. ‘Extended Period’ The Federal Open Market Committee is likely to maintain its pledge to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” for an “extended period” in a statement at about 2:15 p.m. tomorrow, economists said. The Fed probably won’t raise interest rates from record lows until the November meeting, according to the median of 51 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists this month. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke , in July Congressional testimony, called interest on reserves “perhaps the most important” tool for tightening credit. Banks’ excess reserves, or deposits held with the Fed above required amounts, totaled $1 trillion in the two weeks ended Jan. 13, compared with $2.2 billion at the start of 2007. The Fed created the reserves through emergency loans and a $1.7 trillion purchase program of mortgage-backed securities, federal agency and Treasury debt. By raising the deposit rate, now at 0.25 percent, officials reckon banks will keep money at the Fed and not stoke inflation by lending out too much as the economy recovers. Communications Strategy Policy makers will need to adopt a communications strategy to explain the new benchmark because “people might have had a hard time getting their mind around the idea that the official rate had become the interest on reserves rate,” said Kenneth Kuttner, a former Fed economist who has co-written research with Bernanke and now teaches at Williams College in Williamstown, Massachusetts. Without a federal funds target, banks might have to find a new way to set the prime borrowing rate, the figure most familiar to consumers that that is now pegged at three percentage points above the fed funds target. In the past, the Fed had controlled the rate by buying or selling Treasury securities, adding or withdrawing cash from the system. That mechanism broke down when the Fed started flooding the system with cash after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers to prevent a financial meltdown. The deposit rate would help set a floor under the fed funds rate because the Fed would lock up funds by offering a fixed rate of interest for a defined period and prohibiting early withdrawals. ‘Risk Free’ “In general, banks will not lend funds in the money market at an interest rate lower than the rate they can earn risk-free at the Federal Reserve,” Bernanke said in an October speech in Washington. The New York Fed has been testing another tool, reverse repurchase agreements, as a way of pulling cash out of the financial system. In that case, the Fed would sell securities and buy them back at an agreed-upon later date. There could be complications to using the deposit rate. Banks may be able to generate more revenue by lending at prime rate rather than by earning interest at the Fed, said William Ford , a former Atlanta Fed president at Middle Tennessee State University in Murfreesboro. Skewed Trading Also, the Fed’s direct control over a policy rate — instead of targeting a market rate — could skew trading and financing toward short-term borrowing once investors know the rate won’t change between Fed meetings, said Vincent Reinhart , a former Fed monetary-affairs director. The new reliance on reserve interest could also increase the policy clout of Fed governors in Washington at the expense of the 12 regional Fed bank presidents , Reinhart said. Congress gave only the Fed governors the authority to set the deposit rate. The presidents have historically favored higher rates and voiced more concern about inflation. “The Federal Reserve Act puts a very high weight on comity,” said Reinhart, now a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. Using interest on reserves for setting policy “can change the tenor of the discussions, and I don’t know how they get around it.” To contact the reporter on this story: Scott Lanman in Washington at slanman@bloomberg.net .

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Fed Officials Consider Adopting Interest on Reserves as New Benchmark Rate

January 25, 2010

By Scott Lanman Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve policy makers are considering adopting a new benchmark interest rate to replace the one they’ve used for the last two decades. The central bank has been unable to control the federal funds rate since the September 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., when it began flooding financial markets with $1 trillion to prevent the economy from collapsing. Officials, who start a two-day meeting today, have said they may replace or supplement the fed funds rate with interest paid on excess bank reserves. “One option you might want to consider is that our policy rate is the interest rate on excess reserves and we let the fed funds rate trade with some spread to that,” Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker told reporters on Jan. 8 in Linthicum, Maryland. The central bank needs to have an effective policy rate in place when it starts to raise interest rates from record lows to keep inflation in check, said Marvin Goodfriend , a former Fed economist. Policy makers are concerned that the Fed funds rate, at which banks borrow from each other in the overnight market, may fail to meet the new target, damaging their credibility and their ability to control inflation as the economy recovers. The choice of a benchmark is “front line of defense against inflation, and also it’s at the heart of the central bank being able to precisely and flexibly guide interest-rate policy in the recovery,” said Goodfriend , now a professor at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. ‘Extended Period’ The Federal Open Market Committee is likely to maintain its pledge to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” for an “extended period” in a statement at about 2:15 p.m. tomorrow, economists said. The Fed probably won’t raise interest rates from record lows until the November meeting, according to the median of 51 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists this month. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke , in July Congressional testimony, called interest on reserves “perhaps the most important” tool for tightening credit. Banks’ excess reserves, or deposits held with the Fed above required amounts, totaled $1 trillion in the two weeks ended Jan. 13, compared with $2.2 billion at the start of 2007. The Fed created the reserves through emergency loans and a $1.7 trillion purchase program of mortgage-backed securities, federal agency and Treasury debt. By raising the deposit rate, now at 0.25 percent, officials reckon banks will keep money at the Fed and not stoke inflation by lending out too much as the economy recovers. Communications Strategy Policy makers will need to adopt a communications strategy to explain the new benchmark because “people might have had a hard time getting their mind around the idea that the official rate had become the interest on reserves rate,” said Kenneth Kuttner, a former Fed economist who has co-written research with Bernanke and now teaches at Williams College in Williamstown, Massachusetts. Without a federal funds target, banks might have to find a new way to set the prime borrowing rate, the figure most familiar to consumers that that is now pegged at three percentage points above the fed funds target. In the past, the Fed had controlled the rate by buying or selling Treasury securities, adding or withdrawing cash from the system. That mechanism broke down when the Fed started flooding the system with cash after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers to prevent a financial meltdown. The deposit rate would help set a floor under the fed funds rate because the Fed would lock up funds by offering a fixed rate of interest for a defined period and prohibiting early withdrawals. ‘Risk Free’ “In general, banks will not lend funds in the money market at an interest rate lower than the rate they can earn risk-free at the Federal Reserve,” Bernanke said in an October speech in Washington. The New York Fed has been testing another tool, reverse repurchase agreements, as a way of pulling cash out of the financial system. In that case, the Fed would sell securities and buy them back at an agreed-upon later date. There could be complications to using the deposit rate. Banks may be able to generate more revenue by lending at prime rate rather than by earning interest at the Fed, said William Ford , a former Atlanta Fed president at Middle Tennessee State University in Murfreesboro. Skewed Trading Also, the Fed’s direct control over a policy rate — instead of targeting a market rate — could skew trading and financing toward short-term borrowing once investors know the rate won’t change between Fed meetings, said Vincent Reinhart , a former Fed monetary-affairs director. The new reliance on reserve interest could also increase the policy clout of Fed governors in Washington at the expense of the 12 regional Fed bank presidents , Reinhart said. Congress gave only the Fed governors the authority to set the deposit rate. The presidents have historically favored higher rates and voiced more concern about inflation. “The Federal Reserve Act puts a very high weight on comity,” said Reinhart, now a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. Using interest on reserves for setting policy “can change the tenor of the discussions, and I don’t know how they get around it.” To contact the reporter on this story: Scott Lanman in Washington at slanman@bloomberg.net .

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Fed Officials Consider Adopting Interest on Reserves as New Benchmark Rate

January 25, 2010

By Scott Lanman Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve policy makers are considering adopting a new benchmark interest rate to replace the one they’ve used for the last two decades. The central bank has been unable to control the federal funds rate since the September 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., when it began flooding financial markets with $1 trillion to prevent the economy from collapsing. Officials, who start a two-day meeting today, have said they may replace or supplement the fed funds rate with interest paid on excess bank reserves. “One option you might want to consider is that our policy rate is the interest rate on excess reserves and we let the fed funds rate trade with some spread to that,” Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker told reporters on Jan. 8 in Linthicum, Maryland. The central bank needs to have an effective policy rate in place when it starts to raise interest rates from record lows to keep inflation in check, said Marvin Goodfriend , a former Fed economist. Policy makers are concerned that the Fed funds rate, at which banks borrow from each other in the overnight market, may fail to meet the new target, damaging their credibility and their ability to control inflation as the economy recovers. The choice of a benchmark is “front line of defense against inflation, and also it’s at the heart of the central bank being able to precisely and flexibly guide interest-rate policy in the recovery,” said Goodfriend , now a professor at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. ‘Extended Period’ The Federal Open Market Committee is likely to maintain its pledge to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” for an “extended period” in a statement at about 2:15 p.m. tomorrow, economists said. The Fed probably won’t raise interest rates from record lows until the November meeting, according to the median of 51 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists this month. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke , in July Congressional testimony, called interest on reserves “perhaps the most important” tool for tightening credit. Banks’ excess reserves, or deposits held with the Fed above required amounts, totaled $1 trillion in the two weeks ended Jan. 13, compared with $2.2 billion at the start of 2007. The Fed created the reserves through emergency loans and a $1.7 trillion purchase program of mortgage-backed securities, federal agency and Treasury debt. By raising the deposit rate, now at 0.25 percent, officials reckon banks will keep money at the Fed and not stoke inflation by lending out too much as the economy recovers. Communications Strategy Policy makers will need to adopt a communications strategy to explain the new benchmark because “people might have had a hard time getting their mind around the idea that the official rate had become the interest on reserves rate,” said Kenneth Kuttner, a former Fed economist who has co-written research with Bernanke and now teaches at Williams College in Williamstown, Massachusetts. Without a federal funds target, banks might have to find a new way to set the prime borrowing rate, the figure most familiar to consumers that that is now pegged at three percentage points above the fed funds target. In the past, the Fed had controlled the rate by buying or selling Treasury securities, adding or withdrawing cash from the system. That mechanism broke down when the Fed started flooding the system with cash after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers to prevent a financial meltdown. The deposit rate would help set a floor under the fed funds rate because the Fed would lock up funds by offering a fixed rate of interest for a defined period and prohibiting early withdrawals. ‘Risk Free’ “In general, banks will not lend funds in the money market at an interest rate lower than the rate they can earn risk-free at the Federal Reserve,” Bernanke said in an October speech in Washington. The New York Fed has been testing another tool, reverse repurchase agreements, as a way of pulling cash out of the financial system. In that case, the Fed would sell securities and buy them back at an agreed-upon later date. There could be complications to using the deposit rate. Banks may be able to generate more revenue by lending at prime rate rather than by earning interest at the Fed, said William Ford , a former Atlanta Fed president at Middle Tennessee State University in Murfreesboro. Skewed Trading Also, the Fed’s direct control over a policy rate — instead of targeting a market rate — could skew trading and financing toward short-term borrowing once investors know the rate won’t change between Fed meetings, said Vincent Reinhart , a former Fed monetary-affairs director. The new reliance on reserve interest could also increase the policy clout of Fed governors in Washington at the expense of the 12 regional Fed bank presidents , Reinhart said. Congress gave only the Fed governors the authority to set the deposit rate. The presidents have historically favored higher rates and voiced more concern about inflation. “The Federal Reserve Act puts a very high weight on comity,” said Reinhart, now a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. Using interest on reserves for setting policy “can change the tenor of the discussions, and I don’t know how they get around it.” To contact the reporter on this story: Scott Lanman in Washington at slanman@bloomberg.net .

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Harper, Facing Protests, Says Cutting Canada’s Deficit Is Government Focus

January 23, 2010

By Theophilos Argitis Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) — Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper , facing protests today across the country over his decision to suspend Parliament, said his government is using the break to ready the second year of its stimulus package and draft plans to fight the record budget deficit. “We’ve obviously had a successful year rolling out infrastructure projects, but we now have to turn our mind to the broader agenda, to some of the economic challenges including deficit reduction ahead of us,” Harper, 50, said in Ottawa. The Conservatives’ lead over the main opposition Liberals has shrunk since Harper suspended Parliament last month, recent polls show. Opposition parties said the move was aimed at avoiding questions about the Canada’s role in Afghanistan and the treatment of detainees handed over to local forces. Liberal Party Leader Michael Ignatieff today is scheduled to speak at a rally in Ottawa to protest Harper’s suspension of the legislature. It’s the second time the government has suspended Parliament over the past year. Harper has said the move was needed to help the government plan an agenda to secure an economic recovery. Dwindling Support An EKOS Research Associates poll this week showed the Conservatives, also known as Tories, falling into a statistical tie with the main opposition Liberals amid opposition criticism that the suspension was an abuse of power. When asked about the protests today, Harper said the government was “busy” and preparing for the new session of Parliament. Support for the governing Conservatives fell to 32 percent in a Jan. 13-19 poll, from 40 percent in October, according to the EKOS poll of 2,892 Canadians. Support for the Liberals climbed to 31 percent from 26 percent according to the poll, which had a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points. Harper, who begins his fifth year in power today, earlier this week made changes to his cabinet that included placing a veteran party official to help battle the budget deficit and prepare the country for the end of stimulus spending. Canada will post a record C$55.9 billion ($53 billion) budget deficit for the current fiscal year. Stockwell Day , who once headed the Canadian Alliance party, a predecessor to Harper’s Conservatives, moved from trade to the Treasury Board. Day said he wants to see a “road map” to erase the record budget deficit. Harper today also announced the government would match all donations from Canadians for Haiti “dollar-for-dollar.” The government had previously said it would match as much as C$50 million ($47.2 million) in donations. “Giving has exceeded our wildest expectations and we will continue to match pledges dollar for dollar,” Harper said To contact the reporters on this story: Theophilos Argitis in Ottawa at targitis@bloomberg.net

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Senator Bayh Says Obama May Embrace Discretionary Federal Spending Freeze

January 22, 2010

By Laura Litvan Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) — Senator Evan Bayh , an Indiana Democrat, said there is a “fighting chance” that President Barack Obama will call for a freeze in most federal discretionary spending in his State of the Union speech next week. “The president can say in this State of the Union address, ‘I’m going to include in my budget a freeze on discretionary spending, I’m drawing a line in the sand, and I’m going to use my veto pen to enforce that,’” Bayh said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital with Al Hunt ,” airing this weekend. Bayh said that while he wasn’t certain the president will do so, “I think that there’s a fighting chance that he will.” Bayh — who met this week with Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner , Vice President Joe Biden and U.S. Office of Management and Budget Director Peter Orszag — also said he expects Obama to use the Jan. 27 address before Congress to embrace a federal commission to suggest spending cuts and tax increases that Congress would be forced to vote on. Still, Bayh said he doubts such a commission will clear Congress and that Obama will later have to establish such an independent body by executive fiat. “Getting 60 votes will be very hard,” said Bayh, a second-term Democrat who will face voters in this fall’s midterm elections. “I think he’ll then come forward with an executive commission which is not as good, but is at least there’s a step in the right direction.” It takes 60 votes in the Senate to ensure a floor vote. Geithner, Summers Bayh said he still has confidence in Geithner and White House chief economic adviser Lawrence Summers , even though the president recently moved to adopt a more aggressive regulatory stance than had been originally advocated by either Summers or the Treasury secretary. “I do,” Bayh said. “They’re both knowledgeable.” He added that Summers “wants to head us on a better fiscal path,” while Geithner “had to get his sea legs under him in terms of public statements.” In the interview, Bayh supported Obama’s recent proposal for a tax on as many as 50 large financial firms with assets greater than $50 billion. “They do have a responsibility and a role here in helping to clean up some of this mess over and above just what we lent to them,” Bayh said. Limits on Banks Bayh expressed some reservations with a separate White House plan to limit the size of banks, saying that could harm the ability of U.S. institutions to compete globally against foreign rivals. He said he would make up his mind on whether to support the plan once he sees the details. At the same time, the senator said, he supports the part of the Obama proposal that would place limits on the trading activities of financial institutions in order to reduce risk- taking and prevent another financial crisis. “It’s one thing if the banks want to trade with their capital and put their own money at risk. I’ve got no problem with that. That’s the American way,” Bayh said. “But if directly or indirectly the American taxpayer is backstopping those activities if they go wrong, well, that’s a different issue.” “It seems to me the taxpayers then have a right to be involved and setting some of the rules,” he said. Health Care After the Jan. 19 Republican upset in the Massachusetts Senate election, Bayh said Democrats who control Congress should pursue a more-limited health-care overhaul measure that can achieve bipartisan consensus. That might include proposals to let insurance companies compete across state lines, insurance- market changes including a ban on coverage exclusions for pre- existing conditions, and subsidies that would encourage more small businesses to cover their workers. Options that could ensure speedy passage that would be built largely around Democratic support shouldn’t be considered, Bayh indicated. That includes the use of “reconciliation,” a procedure that could allow a health measure to move through the Senate with just 51 votes and no ability by opponents to use delaying tactics to block it. “Just ramming it through on a solely partisan basis, particularly if you’re using reconciliation, well, I think that would be very difficult,” he said. “And one of the lessons out of Massachusetts was you’ve got to listen to us. We want you people to work together. No backroom deals, no special deals.” All those deals, Bayh said, “have got to be taken out of the bill.” Bayh said the real message from Massachusetts is that tougher actions related to fiscal discipline are needed. He said that’s a chief concern of swing voters, and Democrats lost independent voters in the state “three or four to one.” Rising Deficits “They’re concerned about rising deficits, the fiscal issue and it feeds into this animosity toward Washington,” he said. “On a personal level people say, well, wait a minute. I’ve got to balance the family checkbook. I’m making do with a little less now. Why can’t the government do the same thing?” Bayh, who won his last election in 2004 with 62 percent of the vote, said he’s confident he will prevail again in November even as Representative Mike Pence , an Indiana Republican, may challenge him. Pence is the No. 3 House Republican leader and a former conservative talk-radio host. “It’s a more challenging environment for every incumbent,” and “probably more for Democrats than Republicans,” Bayh said. “But the reports of my poll numbers having declined are not accurate. I can tell you that from direct knowledge.” To contact the reporters on this story: Laura Litvan in Washington at llitvan@bloomberg.net ;

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Altavilla’s Race to Fix Chrysler May Make Him Marchionne Successor at Fiat

January 21, 2010

By Sara Gay Forden Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) — Fiat SpA’s Alfredo Altavilla spends at least as much time in Michigan as Italy these days, darting off to a factory outside Detroit to oversee progress in building the engine that’s vital to making the Chrysler Group LLC partnership run. If the 46-year-old Italian delivers with the fuel- efficient 1.4-liter engine, it will not only be a milestone to rolling out Fiat’s first car in the U.S. since 1983. The accomplishment may cement his ascension to be Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne’s successor, industry consultants and analysts said. As Marchionne, 57, weighs when to split his dual roles running Chrysler and Fiat, the top job at the Fiat Auto division is Altavilla’s to lose. Reviving Chrysler is the Italian carmaker’s key to survival after demand plummeted in the recession, the CEO says. Altavilla, who runs the powertrain engine unit and joined the Chrysler board in June after Fiat got a 20 percent stake, is leading an effort to share technology and reduce costs. “Altavilla is the most likely candidate to run Fiat’s automotive business,” said Marco Santino , a consultant at A.T. Kearney in Rome, which has worked for Fiat on supply- chain operations. “The powertrain division is the nerve center of the business.” In 20 years at the maker of Puntos and Pandas, Altavilla has led partnerships from India to Russia. He overhauled Fiat’s powertrain unit, overseeing the development of energy- saving engines and transmissions. Chrysler IPO Helping his boss fix Chrysler is his biggest challenge yet. Altavilla was in the U.S. last week for a board meeting and the North American International Auto Show. He is back in Italy ahead of Fiat’s earnings announcement on Jan. 25. Marchionne said in December that each automaker will need its own leader within two years. He hasn’t revealed a succession plan. The CEO will likely stay at Chrysler through an initial public offering in order to gain banks’ confidence, two people familiar with the situation said. Marchionne says an IPO won’t occur before 2011. His other choices may include Harald Wester , chief technology officer at Fiat and head of Maserati, and Richard Palmer , sent from Fiat to Chrysler as chief financial officer. Marchionne hasn’t looked outside the company for major hires since becoming CEO in 2004, two people close to Marchionne said. Altavilla is the only Fiat executive on Chrysler’s board besides Marchionne. ‘Best Position’ “We haven’t made up our mind, and I certainly haven’t about the exact timing,” Marchionne said last month. Altavilla, who also leads new business development, declined to be interviewed for this story. “Altavilla is in the best position to exploit Fiat Group’s technological strengths through new business opportunities,” said Giorgio Elefante , a consultant at PriceWaterhouseCoopers’ Automotive Institute in Italy who has worked with Fiat on production plans. Altavilla, from the port town of Taranto, where his father owned a Lancia dealership, joined Fiat in 1990 to manage product development, international ventures and strategic planning. He ran the Beijing office and helped integrate Indian operations after Fiat bought out a licensee. He has led business development since 2001 and in 2002 took over parts of a venture with General Motors Corp. , primarily supplying engines for Opels and Saabs. Fiat negotiated a $2 billion payoff from GM for ending the partnership. Turkish Success Marchionne added all alliances to Altavilla’s purview and sent him to Turkey to oversee models for emerging markets, including a van built with PSA Peugeot Citroen . By boosting output in a country with cheaper labor, Altavilla helped Fiat increase earnings. Marchionne then created the $10 billion-a-year powertrain division and put Altavilla in charge of reorganizing it. Operating profit more than doubled in the first full year after he took charge, according to Fiat reports. He now oversees technology for Multi Air engines, which reduce emissions. Altavilla has had misfires, including Fiat’s bid for GM’s Opel, for which he assisted Marchionne. The offer was rejected and GM settled on another bidder, then decided to keep Opel. Two Chinese accords failed on Altavilla’s watch, and Fiat reached an agreement last year to work with Guangzhou Automobile Group Co. A Few Miscues “It does raise the question of whether he’s negotiating in the right manner,” said Stephen Pope , an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald in London. “What worked well for him in his own backyard may not work as well in those countries.” Altavilla has an otherwise “impeccable record” and the Asian misfires were “not necessarily his fault,” Pope said. The executive’s successes include manufacturing cars with Severstal in Russia, building the Ford Ka in Poland and producing diesel engines with Japan’s Suzuki. Altavilla’s detail-focused style would be a switch from Marchionne, who boosts morale by joking and laughing with janitors and managers alike and asks employees how their kids are doing. While Marchionne dresses casually in slouchy trousers, Altavilla wears suits and is more formal. Altavilla emulates Marchionne’s 24/7 pace at Fiat. Outside work, he’s a Harley-Davidson enthusiast and also has competed in Italy’s Mille Miglia antique car race. Managing Engineers Though he’s an economics graduate, Altavilla effectively manages engineers, according to colleagues. “He understands both business development and automotive operations without being either a banker or an engineer,” said Galeazzo Scarampi , former vice president of the Agnelli family holding company that controls Fiat . “He helped Marchionne bring in a new mentality to Fiat, enabling him to run it more effectively with fewer layers of management,” Scarampi said. Fiat was regarded as rule-bound and resistant to change before Marchionne was hired. Fiat’s Chrysler holding will jump to 25 percent this year when U.S. production begins on the Fiat-derived engine, according to the sale agreement. Other milestones include selling a car in the U.S. that gets at least 40 miles per gallon and expanding Chrysler exports. Fiat can buy a majority stake after repaying government loans. “In November 2006, Marchionne said he was ready to leave Fiat Auto and he’s still there,” said Pierre Bergeron , a credit analyst at Societe Generale SA in Paris. “The real question is whether he’s ready to leave the position or not.” To contact the reporter on this story: Sara Gay Forden in Milan at sforden@bloomberg.net .

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Penn Basketball Hits 110-Year Low as Ivy League Championship Memories Fade

January 20, 2010

By Curtis Eichelberger Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) — The University of Pennsylvania basketball team never had it so bad. The 1-11 Quakers, who won or shared seven of the past 11 Ivy League titles , lost a school-record 10 straight games to start the season. And their 114-55 loss to Duke University before a national television audience New Year’s Eve was the worst drubbing in Penn’s 110-year basketball history. The school fired coach Glen Miller on Dec. 14 and promoted assistant Jerome Allen , a Penn alumnus and two-time Ivy League Player of the Year, with no guarantee that he’ll keep his job beyond this season. “We’re not used to having a losing record, but that can happen,” Penn Athletic Director Steve Bilsky said in an interview at the school’s west Philadelphia campus. “It was the lack of enthusiasm; the lack of confidence. Those things seemed to be seeping away and it started spiraling.” Penn, which hosts La Salle University (9-8, 2-2 in the Atlantic 10 Conference) tonight at the Palestra in Philadelphia, is a long way from reclaiming its spot atop the league standings. Miller, who replaced Fran Dunphy in 2006, took the Quakers to the National Collegiate Athletic Association tournament in his first season. The next year, Penn dropped to 13-18 and last season the Quakers finished 10-18. Then it got worse. Injured Players This year, injuries sidelined five of the school’s top 10 players: Guard Tyler Bernardini (foot), centers Andreas Schreiber (shoulder) and Mike Howlett (foot) and forwards Larry Loughery (hip) and Justin Reilly (post-concussion symptoms). Reilly is just returning after missing eight games. The Quakers have the Ivy League’s worst defense , allowing an average 80 points a game. Their 39.1 percent field goal average ranks seventh of the eight teams and their turnover margin of -3.61 also ranks seventh. Allen said his first order of business was to tell the players he cared about them. He has a quote on his desk that reads: “Kids don’t care how much you know, until they know how much you care.” And he encourages them to think bigger. “Expect to be exceptional,” is one of his mottos. Next, he said he needed to change the culture so that the students understood the program’s history and purpose. “What does it mean to be a Penn basketball player,” he asked. Final Four The Quakers are the last Ivy League team to progress to the Final Four of the NCAA tournament, in 1979, when they lost to a Michigan State team led by Magic Johnson . They are part of the “ Big Five ,” an unofficial basketball conference of Philadelphia colleges. The schools — Temple, La Salle, St. Joseph’s and Villanova universities along with Penn – - have produced two national champions. All five have made it to the Final Four. The Quakers’ home court, the Palestra, hosted the NCAA’s first basketball championship in 1939. The school has produced National Basketball Association players including Ernie Beck, Corky Calhoun and Dave Wohl , as well as almuni including Donald Trump , actress Candice Bergen and Pennsylvania governor Ed Rendell . Its endowment as of June 30 was $5.2 billion. Zack Rosen, 20, a sophomore point guard from Colonia, New Jersey, who is carrying a 3.1 grade-point average in business management, said Allen began changing the culture almost immediately. “The way we practice, the way we travel, the way we present ourselves publicly matters,” Rosen said. “Being on time, running to correct mistakes — he’s big on that — he’s just established that this is the way we do things or else.” Philadelphia Childhood Allen, 37, grew up in a five-bedroom house in Philadelphia with 19 people and was raised by a single mother who earned $11,000 a year. He played on three Ivy League championship teams and was drafted by the Minnesota Timberwolves in the second round of the 1995 NBA draft. He later played and coached in Europe. “From day one, I said everything matters,” Allen said. “From the time you arrive at breakfast, to how your shirt is tucked in, to how you approach the last drill. “In my mind, the turnaround has already begun, and it’s not necessarily measured in wins and losses but how we approach the game,” he said. Miller went 45-52 with one NCAA tournament appearance in three-plus seasons. Bilsky said that after five weeks on the job, Allen has instilled a sense of confidence and direction to the team. One Victory They haven’t turned that into victories. Penn is 1-4 under Allen; its only victory coming over a 1-13 University of Maryland, Baltimore County, team on Jan. 6. Bilsky said he will “get serious” about a coaching search at the end of January. He expects to meet with several candidates, including Allen, he said. “The kids are playing with a lot of enthusiasm,” Bilsky said. “(Allen) hasn’t made any excuses and hasn’t given the players an opportunity to make excuses.” “The basic ingredients are here; we have one of the best institutions in the country, an attractive campus and the uniqueness of Penn basketball.” Penn and Princeton are tied for the league championship record, each having won or shared 25 Ivy League basketball titles. Princeton, 8-5, last won an Ivy League championship during the 2003-2004 season. “Everyone has written us off this season because of our initial start, or because of injury,” Allen said. “That is motivation. I think their best basketball is ahead of them.” To contact the reporter on this story: Curtis Eichelberger in Washington at ceichelberge@bloomberg.net

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Susan Wilson Solovic: Following Up After a Job Interview: Do the Old Rules Still Apply?

January 18, 2010

Great question don’t you think? I thought so when a Fox News anchor asked me that question during a live television interview recently. Honestly, I was caught off-guard for a moment as I struggled to balance the traditional business etiquette norms and the realities of today’s business world. In this new era of business, what is the preferred or proper way to follow-up after a job interview? Early in my career when I was job-hunting, I always sent a hand-written thank you note to every person I met during the interview. But do people really read those notes today? Is it politically correct to kill trees to send a business-related thank-you note through the mail? Personally, when I receive a hand-written thank you, I glance at it in order to acknowledge who sent it and then toss it in the trash. Often times, the person’s handwriting is poor so it is hard to read what was written, and most of us don’t have time to decipher sloppy handwriting. Some career experts recommend sending a formal letter after a job interview. Certainly, a type-written letter is easier to read, and you can include more information about yourself to confirm your interest and ability to do the job. But then there is the issue of killing trees again. You could always pick up the phone and call the person who interviewed you to thank them for their time and interest. However, you risk catching them at a bad time or if they don’t answer, leaving a voice mail message. Of course, you won’t kill trees when you use the phone. So that brings me to email correspondence. Is it proper to email someone after an interview to thank them? My answer is “yes.” In fact, I was searching for an executive assistant about a year ago and I narrowed down to three top candidates, but I was struggling to make a decision. One of the candidates sent an email after her interview that was relevant to the position, and creatively written. After reading it, my mind was made up. She got the job offer. And no trees were killed along the way. These are some of my thoughts. I’d like to know what you think. Take a minute and share your thoughts, experiences and advice.

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Charles H. Green: Wall Street, We Have a (Simple) Problem

January 12, 2010

Let’s keep it simple. The first step toward dealing with a problem is admitting you have a problem. I try to stay away from politics in this blog. But I know something about business, trust and society. And when issues of business trust arise, they need to be written about. The fact that some might view this as “political” is a deplorable bit of collateral damage brought about in great part by those who have abused business and trust in the first place. So much has been written about the problem with our financial sector that it’s easy to become numbed. So let’s keep it very, very simple. Does the financial sector “get it?” Never mind the suggestion of the President of the United States that they don’t. How about financial eminence grise Paul Volcker? Here’s what Volcker had to say about excessive compensation at a high level bankers’ conference: “Has there been one financial leader to say this is really excessive? Wake up, gentlemen. Your response, I can only say, has been inadequate.” Translation: too many don’t get it. Again, let’s keep it simple. The financial sector has grown, grown and grown in recent years. First, some perspective on profit and compensation growth from the IMF’s former chief economist: From 1973 to 1985, the financial sector never earned more than 16 percent of domestic corporate profits. In 1986, that figure reached 19 percent. In the 1990s, it oscillated between 21 percent and 30 percent, higher than it had ever been in the postwar period. This decade, it reached 41 percent. Pay rose just as dramatically. From 1948 to 1982, average compensation in the financial sector ranged between 99 percent and 108 percent of the average for all domestic private industries. From 1983, it shot upward, reaching 181 percent in 2007. Then, some perspective on the financial sector as a percentage of GDP from Nobel-prize-winning economist Paul Krugman: Even during the “go-go years,” the bull market of the 1960s, finance and insurance together accounted for less than 4 percent of G.D.P. The relative unimportance of finance was reflected in the list of stocks making up the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which until 1982 contained not a single financial company… On the eve of the current crisis, finance and insurance accounted for 8 percent of G.D.P., more than twice their share in the 1960s. By early last year, the Dow contained five financial companies — giants like A.I.G., Citigroup and Bank of America. Some say these data don’t account for the relative importance and innovation created by the financial sector. Here’s what Paul Volcker had to say about such claims: [Volcker] said that financial services in the United States had increased its share of value added from 2 per cent to 6.5 per cent, but he asked: “Is that a reflection of your financial innovation, or just a reflection of what you’re paid?” [a clearly irritated Mr Volcker said that] the biggest innovation in the industry over the past 20 years had been the cash machine…”I wish someone would give me one shred of neutral evidence that financial innovation has led to economic growth — one shred of evidence.” Let’s keep it simple. Forget the mind-numbing details of what Warren Buffet called “financial weapons of mass destruction.” There are some simple facts we need to remember. This is a legitimate social question: not just a business question, and surely not just a political question. The financial sector has gotten too big. It pays itself too much. There are plenty of fine people in the industry, and I’ve had the privilege of working with many; but on balance, perhaps not enough. Too much of the sector is built and managed on the basis of financial returns only, and on the short-term rather than the long-term. It is not–on balance–an industry being run for the betterment of society. The social benefits of globalized, digitized, productized, market-driven structures have been overwhelmed by the social costs of illiquidity (aka credit freeze), risk protection (aka bailout), opportunity cost (aka our best and brightest designing nano-second trading models) and social misery (aka unemployment). A critical sector of the economy has become–on balance–systemically untrustworthy, and therefore unworthy of being trusted. Sellers’ needs are vastly over-emphasized relative to customers’ needs. On balance, the sector has come to equate ethical behavior with the absence of legally prohibited activity, and to do so unconsciously. Society has a right to demand that its business sector conduct itself in ways that are constructive for society as a whole, not just for shareholders and management. That right supersedes any “right” of corporate entities and their management to do what they want according to some gross misreading of Adam Smith. Let’s keep it simple. Wall Street, we have a (simple) problem.

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Thain Says Fee for Being `Too Big to Fail’ May Be Part of Reform Solution

January 11, 2010

By Erik Schatzker and Deirdre Bolton Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) — John Thain , the former chief executive officer of Merrill Lynch & Co., said a “fee” may be necessary to solve the problem of banks becoming so great a risk to the financial system that they need government aid. “‘Too big to fail’ is one of the biggest issues that we haven’t really figured out what to do with yet,” Thain said today in an interview on Bloomberg Television. While a fee for systemic risk may be part of the solution, a new tax is “not necessarily the right way” to resolve the issue, he said. U.S. lawmakers developing legislation in response to the financial crisis may revive sections of the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act that separated commercial and investment banking. Senators John McCain of Arizona and Maria Cantwell of Washington last month proposed preventing deposit-taking banks from underwriting securities, engaging in proprietary trading, selling insurance or owning retail brokerages. “There’s no question in my mind that at least the top five financial institutions today are in fact too big to fail,” Thain, 54, said. “You could actually charge them and the bigger they are, the more complicated they are, the more you charge them.” H. Rodgin Cohen , chairman of Sullivan & Cromwell LLP, said in a roundtable discussion with Thain that reform should take into account that large banks benefit from their size. “I do not believe there should be ‘too big to fail,’” Cohen, 65, said. “I absolutely think there are benefits from being big, but there should certainly not be a concept that big is bad.” Thain, who was dismissed from Bank of America Corp. last year after the company bought Merrill Lynch, is looking at a “broad range” of job opportunities, he said. Thain is “not necessarily” looking to come back to Wall Street in a senior position, he said. To contact the reporters on this story: Erik Schatzker in New York at eschatzker@bloomberg.net ; Deirdre Bolton in New York at dbolton@bloomberg.net ;

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Van Gogh’s Secrets, Penn’s Celebs Put on Show: European Arts Preview 2010

January 5, 2010

Review by Martin Gayford Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) — Vincent van Gogh’s letters and Irving Penn’s portraits of Nicole Kidman and Marlene Dietrich will be among star exhibits at European art shows in 2010. Van Gogh once more steps into the limelight in a year that is the 120th anniversary of his suicide at the age of 37. The most important Van Gogh show that London has seen in 40 years opens at the Royal Academy this month, centered on private correspondence that the organizers say shows the artist had a powerful intellect to match his erratic genius. “ The Real Van Gogh : The Artist and his Letters” (Jan. 23 to April 18) is likely to be popular, though it remains to be seen whether the number of visitors pouring in will exceed the 800,000-plus who saw “Monet in the 20th Century” at the Academy in 1999, the London record for an art show. While the curators have secured a remarkable list of loans, the concept sets a tricky problem in exhibition design. The idea is to compare and contrast Van Gogh’s paintings with drawings and the sketches in the letters of the same subjects. The crowds of spectators may have to peer at small works on paper without causing traffic jams in the galleries. Meanwhile, Vincent’s old houseguest Paul Gauguin is the star of a tightly focused show at the Van Gogh Museum , Amsterdam. “Paul Gauguin: The Breakthrough into Modernity” (Feb. 19 to June 6) looks at the artist in 1889, immediately after his fraught sojourn in Arles with Van Gogh. Hardcore Gauguin fans in the U.K. will be tempted to cross the North Sea to enjoy this, though others may wait for the Gauguin show at Tate Modern next autumn. Lady Jane Grey At London’s National Gallery , the spotlight falls on an earlier 19th-century painter, Paul Delaroche (1797-1856). He was one of those artists who achieve commanding reputations during their lifetimes which then slump. Nonetheless, his “Execution of Lady Jane Grey” (1833), the focus of the Feb. 24-May 23 exhibition, is one of the gallery’s more popular pictures. To my mind, Delaroche’s painting is the visual equivalent of ham costume drama — Errol Flynn as Robin Hood. Still, I’m prepared to be convinced. The sculptor Henry Moore is an artist whose reputation has not quite settled. Moore (1898-1986) was acclaimed in Britain when he was alive and has faded a little in recent decades. Can the Tate Britain retrospective (Feb. 24 to Aug. 8) return him to the art-historical forefront? A successful little Moore show at Kew Gardens a couple of years ago suggested a revival is possible. One problem for any gallery exhibition of Moore is that his major works tend to look much better outdoors than in. Ofili Assessed On the contemporary-art front, Tate Britain offers a mid- career assessment of Chris Ofili (Jan. 27 to May 16), the painter whose Virgin Mary, with applique elephant dung, caused a kerfuffle when “Sensation” was shown in New York in 1999. (It passed largely without comment in London). The question is, has an artist born in 1968, as Ofili was, had time to produce enough to sustain an exhibition of this size and prominence? No such questions can be asked in the case of Lucian Freud , born in 1922. This giant of contemporary British art has an exhibition at the Pompidou Center , Paris, this spring (March 10 to July 19). Freud may feel, as his old friend Francis Bacon did on a similar occasion, that acceptance by the Parisian art world is the ultimate accolade. This season, Tate Modern is presenting a couple of shows devoted to 20th-century classics. “Van Doesburg and the International Avant-Garde” (Feb. 4 to May 16) looks at the Dutch painter/architect who was one of the most idealistic modernists of the 1920s. The exhibition also includes work by contemporaries who shared Van Doesburg’s idealization of simple geometric form. Expect plenty of straight lines, squares and angular objects. Gorky’s Abstracts “Arshile Gorky” (Feb 10. to May 3), also at Tate Modern, will investigate a different and slightly later variety of avant-gardism. Gorky (circa 1904-1948) was one of the leading abstract expressionists, his work full of flowing brush-strokes and soft forms: half abstract, half organic. More geometric patterns, and, surprisingly, contemporary art turn up in “Quilts 1700-2010” at the V&A (March 20 to July 4), which will range from 18th-century bedding to the expletives-not-deleted efforts of Tracy Emin . The photographic show of the season looks likely to be “Irving Penn Portraits” (Feb. 18 to June 6), a big retrospective at the National Portrait Gallery devoted to the celebrated American master of the camera who died last year. Edith Piaf to Pablo Picasso are also among those featured. Ife Sculptures At the British Museum, “Kingdom of Ife: Sculptures from West Africa” ( March 4 to June 6 ) doesn’t have such a stellar historical character at its center as the museum’s current “Moctezuma.” It may be a more beautiful exhibition because the bronzes and carvings made in Ife (part of modern Nigeria) in the 12th to 15th centuries are a high point of art history. Michael Landy’s “Art Bin” at the South London Gallery (Jan. 29 to March 14) may be the most eccentric show of early 2010. The gallery will be transformed into a garbage tip for the disposal of unwanted works of art — or, as Landy calls it, “a monument to creative failure.” It’s a safe prediction that, as always, there’ll be plenty of that to report in 2010. ( Martin Gayford , the author of books on Van Gogh and Gauguin and on Constable, is chief art critic for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.) To contact the writer on the story: Martin Gayford in London at martin.gayford@googlemail.com .

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Elusive Monbousquet Blanc Heads My List of White Bordeaux: John Mariani

December 28, 2009

Review by John Mariani Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) — Bordeaux, famous for its magnificent red wines, also makes a few good whites. Not many rank with their better counterparts from Burgundy, yet the prices for some white Bordeaux match all but the most illustrious Grand Crus. I exempt from this discussion Bordeaux’s enchanting dessert wines, Sauternes and Barsacs. Under the famous 1855 classification of the white wines of the Gironde, none were dry. Until the mid-1980s, Graves (where most of the better known whites come from), made such a wide variety of styles — light sauvignon blancs, herbaceous semillons, wines that were oaky or oxidized — that buyers had little consistency to base decisions on. Then, in 1987, the northern communes were given a higher classification of appellation, “Pessac-Leognan,” which challenged vintners to upgrade their facilities and products. Quality has improved overall. With such a short track record, it’s difficult to accept the argument that the better white Graves need a decade to mature. Few of even the great white burgundies get better over 10 years. And who has the patience to wait that long for a white Bordeaux? Recent tastings of several of the best-known Graves whites did little to change my mind. Fans celebrate their “flinty austerity,” which is another way of saying they have minimal fruit, lean body, and a short finish. Expensive Afterthought Chateau Lynch-Bages , owned by the AXA SA insurance group, makes a Fifth Growth red wine many believe should rank higher. But the 2006 Blanc de Lynch-Bages seems little more than an expensive afterthought, selling at between $40-$70. One on-line wine site finds “fruit, citrus, young, acidic, white, nutty, mineral, nuts, lemon, Mediterranean and subtropical fruits.” I’ll agree with it being white, but the only Mediterranean reference I buy is that it’s no better than a modest pinot grigio costing one-third the price. Carbonnieux Blanc 2006 ($30-$45) is indeed austere, like a performance of John Cage’s 4’ 33,” in which the pianist sits at the piano for 4 minutes and 33 seconds and plays nothing. There is only an aroma if you imagine it, only flavor if you squint your eyes, and were it not for its alcohol, you might mistake it for mineral water. Of those whites I enjoyed, Pavillon Blanc du Chateau Margaux 2005 ($75-$135) is 100 percent sauvignon blanc and made to express that varietal’s floral, citrus and vegetal character. The high 14 percent alcohol helps rather than hinders in this case. This is not a lush Loire Valley-style sauvignon blanc, but there are mineral nuances here that make it a stand-out for Bordeaux. I do not, however, think it is getting any better after four years of age, so drink up now. Bordeaux Upgrade Chateau Smith Haut Lafitte Blanc 2005 ($70-$90) — made from 90 percent sauvignon blanc, 5 percent sauvignon gris and 5 percent semillon — shows the kind of upgrade Bordeaux whites have gone through. It’s pleasingly plump and balanced with enough acid to be refreshing while still delivering richness. With a lovely finish of minerality, it is excellent with seafood. For me, one of the great white Bordeaux is not even from Graves. It is Chateau Monbousquet , a St.-Emilion whose Grand Cru red brother has built a high reputation all its own since Parisian hypermarket magnate Gerard Perse bought and completely renovated the vineyards in 1993. I tasted the Monbousquet blanc 2004 by chance recently when I asked Emilie Garvey, sommelier at New York’s SHO Shaun Hergatt restaurant, to choose a good white wine for our dinner. ‘Fat, Buttery’ “It is a wine that is extremely allocated and difficult to get,” Garvey said. “It’s certainly not typical of Bordeaux whites, which have a lean, crisp, flinty flavor from the shells in the soil. Monbousquet has a fat, creamy, buttery taste and texture I think is the richest style in the market right now.” She’s right. The wine, which SHO sells for $220 a bottle, was a revelation — a white Bordeaux not shy about its body. In the nose, in the first sip and in the finish, here was a wine that showed the fullness of sauvignon blanc without the grassiness that can cripple the fruit. And that’s only the beginning: the blend has 35 percent sauvignon gris, 5 percent muscadelle and 5 percent semillon, each bringing nuance and floral flavors. Only about 450 cases are made each year, so the 2006 and 2007 vintages are bargains at about $40 to $70 a bottle at retail stores. By the way, if you’re going to SHO Shaun Hergatt, Garvey was only able to obtain three bottles and I drank one. So hurry. ( John Mariani writes on wine for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.) To contact the writer of this column: John Mariani at john@johnmariani.com .

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Mark Horvath: Twitter Magic Brings Miracle to Homeless Family

December 21, 2009

On Saturday night, I was part of a miracle that I still cannot believe happened. When I woke up the next morning I had to watch this video several times for it all to sink in. This miracle was broadcast to the world in real-time via social media. Twitter played a monumental role in bringing smiles to the faces of a homeless family on their first night in the shelter system. Below are a few tweets that will allow you to witness the miracle unfold for yourself: The winter shelter is no place for children so we drive families to a hotel and voucher them until we can find a more permanent solution. This single mom was living in a van with her 9 year-old son. When the city towed their van they lost EVERYTHING. I checked the family into hotel and then took them grocery shopping. Mom told me that they desperately needed a change of clothes. Another woman at the shelter has an urgent need for clothes so I broadcast the needs via twitter . Almost instantly Pastor Matthew Barnett from Los Angeles Dream Center sent me the following direct messages: Because the only clothes this mother and child had were on their backs I didn’t feel we could wait another day. I searched the GPS on my phone and the closest store was Walmart. I tweet I was headed there. Soon I received this: Pastor Matthew called me. He asked me to pick out a nice toy for the boy and suggested a Nintendo DS. The Los Angeles Dream Center is the church that helped me off the streets. Matthew Barnett has been caring for homeless people for over a decade. He knows people without housing cannot carry lots of stuff so a portable video game is a perfect gift. Even typing this now thinking about last night I get emotional. Last night I was a wreck! I opened the Ustream app. and started to broadcast over the net . Ustream cuts up the clips so I edited them together. The following YouTube video is what I broadcast from my phone last night: Response was immediate and overwhelming. Here are just a very few: My friend Kat Armstrong wrote a post before we all got home. Please read her powerful post here. For as long as I can remember I have hated this time of year. As a tradition I keep wherever I live ‘Christmas free’ to escape the holiday madness. No Christmas music, no Christmas decorations, and especially NO CHRISTMAS TREES! To reflect my holiday ‘mood’ I even change my avatar to the mean Grinch. While rushing to Walmart I must have been out of my mind and tweet that if someone helped this 9 year-old boy I’d change my avatar, and if someone helped the woman with clothes I’d get a tree. I will be getting a tree this weekend! Merry Christmas! Last night I learned that to see miracles one must be in a place where miracles happen – that place is helping other people. Thanks to Union Rescue Mission and PATH Achieve Glendale for taking care of homeless families at the winter shelters around Los Angeles. Very special thanks to Matthew Barnett and everyone who donated to help give a little extra love this holiday season!

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Dr. Peter Breggin: Stimulus Packages and Prozac: The Unintended Consequences of Intervention

December 18, 2009

A column written by David Wessel on December 17, 2009 was published in the Wall Street Journal with the title, “A Prozac Economy Has Its Costs.” Wessel warns against the potentially stultifying effects of economic control. He makes some good points that can be sharpened by a more precise comparison between the impact of Prozac on the brain and the impact of government regulation and stimulation on the economy. Prozac is the prototype for what became a whole slew of newer antidepressants including Paxil, Zoloft, Luvox, Lexapro and Celexa. Initially, these newer antidepressants have the potential to cause an artificial euphoria that makes an individual feel temporarily elated. But the sense of wellness is unrealistic and can lead to poor judgments. The brief sense of euphoria too often drives the individual to try one drug after another in the hope of repeating or prolonging that evanescent glimpse of happiness. Worse, the euphoria can escalate into outright mania, a bubble that is bound to burst with ruinous consequences for the individual, his or her family, and even society. In the long run, drugs like Prozac, Paxil and Zoloft impair brain function and tend to produce emotional apathy and indifference. Now consider the similar impact of artificial interventions thrust onto the economy. Initially, government stimulus packages engender an unfounded sense of confidence. Inevitably, this is mistaken for genuine economic growth and improvement, and thus the stimulation is increased in a compulsive attempt to make it last. Once again, we risk creating a manic-like bubble that will eventually burst. In the long run, the economy will become mired down in varying degrees of inflation and stagnation. Growth will be suppressed by distortions that were caused by the initial stimulations and by the government regulation that come along with them. But it gets worse for both chemical and financial interventions. Prozac was tested in clinical trials lasting a mere 4-6 weeks before it was approved by the FDA and unleashed on the marketplace. Although I predicted many of them in my book Talking Back to Prozac (written with my wife Ginger in 1994), the untoward consequences were unforeseen and then denied by advocates of the drug. The FDA-approved labels for antidepressant drugs now recognize some of these harmful outcomes. For example, by over-stimulating the brain, Prozac and its chemical cousins can lead to disinhibition or loss of self-control with violence, suicide and aggression. In my latest book about psychiatric medications, Medication Madness: The Role of Psychiatric Drugs in Cases of Violence, Suicide, and Crime (2008), I describe how they can cause bizarre and horrendously destructive episodes of mania and disinhibition. The equivalent to artificial interventions with the economy is apparent. In an effort to make housing available to the poor, the government encouraged and even forced banks to invest in subprime mortgages that created an enormous bubble in the housing market. The easy money policies of the Fed then enabled speculators and financial institutions to package these unsound mortgages into what would become “toxic assets.” As I mentioned earlier, there is a long-term antidepressant effect that is finding its way into the medical literature and that I am seeing on a regular basis in my psychiatric practice. Patients find themselves becoming apathetic on these drugs. They lose their interest and involvement in their own lives. It happens gradually with a diminishment of emotional investment in sex, in love, in relationships, in creativity, and in work. In the words of one of my patients, “All of life becomes blah.” Time and again I hear, “I just wish I could get my life back.” The road to recovery from psychiatric drugs can be long and discouraging. And there is a tragic analogy to current politics in America. With the increasing loss of our liberties, many of us will end up “longing for the good old days.” Meanwhile, in a process I have identified as “medication spellbinding,” patients’ judgment and self-insight become so impaired that they rarely grasp what has befallen them until it is too late. The analogy to politicians spellbinding the public is striking. We must all wake up to the political dangers before it is too late. In some ways worst of all, after enduring exposure lasting months if not years, people often find it difficult and sometimes impossible to stop taking antidepressant drugs. Withdrawal reactions are highly unpredictable, but include “crashing” into depression and suicidality, becoming over-stimulated into mania, and experiencing shock-like feelings in the head, a distressing sense of disorientation and imbalance, and various other neurological symptoms. The analogy between pharmaceutical interventions into the brain and government interventions into the economy took on a new reality in the 1990s in regard to what Alan Greenspan called the “irrational exuberance” of Wall Street investors. Instead of an analogy, we had may have had a direct effect. I was not alone at the time in wondering if some of that investment euphoria was being driven by the widespread use of Prozac among these traders and speculators. The withdrawal symptoms from economic stimulation are also a critical problem as the government struggles between the unpleasant choices of controlling inflation with higher interests or suppressing the economy with these same increased interest rates. Why do we have so many unintended consequences from psychiatric drugs and from economic panacea? The brain, like the economy, resists all artificial attempts to stimulate or control it. For example, newer antidepressants are intended to cause increased stimulation of the neurotransmitter system called serotonin. They are supposed to do this by blocking the removal of serotonin from its active sites in the brain, in effect flooding the serotonin engine with chemical fuel. But the brain immediately fights back by shutting down the production of serotonin, by increasing its rate of removal from these active sites, and ultimately by causing a die back of the receptors for serotonin. In manifold ways the brain resists the impact of any psychiatric drug. Animal studies show that distortions in the brain caused by psychiatric drugs can long outlast the exposure to the chemicals and may become permanent, including the development of grossly abnormal neurons or brain cells. The same risks are incurred with the use of all potent psychoactive substances, including recreational drugs. There is a basic principle that applies equally to interventions into the brain/mind system and into the economy: They always result in unintended harmful consequences. Whether we are talking about a psychiatric drug or a street drug like marijuana or LSD, there are always serious adverse effects, many of them unpredictable, from both acute exposure and from long-term use. Why is this true of both the brain/mind system and the economic system? To begin with, both are far too complex to be “helped” by artificial interventions. The human brain is the most complex system that we know of in the entire universe. Because of the subtle and elaborate complexities created by life, each individual brain is more intricate and complicated than the entire physical universe. Produced by a combination of the brain, environmental factors and individual decisions, the mind is even more complicated than the brain. The probability of an artificially introduced chemical improving this system approaches zero; the likelihood of that same alien chemical causing disruption and harm is nearly 100%. The economy is even more complicated than the brain and mind of individual human beings, because the economy is the product of the activity of billions of human beings with their busy brains and minds. Regardless of the underlying physical structure of the brain or the economy, its real life is mental — the product of individuals with free will who make their own subjective decisions about how to live. Our individual decisions direct our lives; put all together, these individual subjective decisions move society and the economy. As Ludwig von Mises described in great detail in his economic treatises, the subjective decision-making of untold numbers of people drives the economy. This aggregate of individual decision-making cannot be replaced by the top-down decision making of an elite or a dictatorship. Put simply, the free will of individual people is the key to successful human life on both a personal and an economic level. Hence the importance of human liberty–providing the opportunity for people to exercise free will to the maximum of their ability. It is no coincidence that Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations and the Declaration of Independence both made their entrance onto the human stage in the same year, 1776. Both were the product of a growing realization that liberty provides the best opportunity for human life on all levels — personal, political, and economic. Artificial interventions by know-it-all psychiatrists with their drugs, or know-it-all politicians with their economic bromides can never improve upon the activities of individual human beings pursuing their interests and their ideals in a free society. Peter R. Breggin, MD is a psychiatrist in private practice in Ithaca, New York. His latest book is Wow, I’m an American! How to Live Like Our Heroic Founders . With straightforward language and dramatic examples, Dr. Breggin shows how the Founding principles of our nation apply both to good government and living the good life. All of Dr. Breggin’s books can be obtained from his website, www.breggin.com or from Internet stores like Amazon.com. Dr. Breggin can be contacted at psychiatricdrugfacts@hotmail.com or at 607-272 5328.

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Michael Moore Threatens To Boycott Connecticut Over Lieberman

December 17, 2009

NEW HAVEN, Conn. — Liberal filmmaker Michael Moore is threatening to organize a boycott of Connecticut in response to Sen. Joseph Lieberman’s opposition to key parts of federal health care legislation. Moore tells The Associated Press he will launch the boycott if Lieberman continues to block the bill and residents fail to pressure him to change his mind. He called for residents to hold rallies and flood Lieberman’s office with phone calls and e-mails. Moore says he will organize millions to boycott Connecticut businesses that have supported Lieberman. Lieberman, a Connecticut independent, has threatened to join Republicans in blocking health care overhaul over government-run insurance and an expansion of Medicare. Telephone messages were left Thursday with a Lieberman spokeswoman.

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Woods’s Wife to Leave Him Amid Infidelity Scandal, People Magazine Reports

December 16, 2009

By Brad Skillman Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) — Tiger Woods’s wife Elin Nordegren plans to leave him, People magazine reported on its Web site, citing a source close to the golfer’s wife. Another unidentified source told the magazine that “she’s made up her mind.” Photos this week showed Nordegren without her wedding ring, People said. Woods, 33, said Dec. 11 that he was taking an indefinite break from professional golf, citing infidelity and the need to focus on being a “better husband, father and person.” Woods is the winner of 14 major titles. Nordegren has met with laywers to renegotiate their prenuptial agreement, People said, citing a “high-profile Florida divorce attorney.”

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Nelson Davis: What Is Important?

December 15, 2009

As the year end approaches, my office is rather messy right now and badly in need of a “paper tossing party.” While sitting here gazing at too many stacks of paper, I can hear the voices from a cable news network describing the battle over health care and the dangers of our Afghan policy. As I listened to the dimensions of the various problems that we face, it becomes clear that we all have to figure out what is truly important and be resolutely prepared to discard or shred the rest. Deciding what stays in your enterprise and what is miscellaneous can be a grueling process which brings many business owners into touch with a raft of old files including goals, dreams, and plans. I think that everyone in business should hang on to some of these materials because they will certainly help bring perspective to how far you’ve traveled and how you’ve overcome the inevitable bumps. The right course is probably somewhere between being a pack-rat and a compulsive neat freak. Of course not every important thing you want to hold onto is written on paper or captured in the snapshots that are falling out of your photo box. Knowledge and attitude are at the top of the list. An unscheduled visitor at my office today was Gordon, a successful salesman who has handled radio spots, TV time, and is now hawking the benefits of multimedia. He reminded me that the most important thing is to sell something. So often I speak to prospective business owners who are spending gobs of time and money on the office layout, business cards, and stationery. Generally, I suspect they are trying to avoid the sting of rejection that is a fundamental part of the sales process. According to my visitor, “The only thing that matters is to get in front of people who can buy what you are selling.” Another memorable bit of his advice is “the only thing that drives sales is sales.” Speaking of that box where old photographs go to live, it can now be an asset for the online aspects of your business. The pictures can be used to post a charming history of your business on the web site and having an interesting illustrated history is a good way to begin a customer relationship. Another joy of the photo file came to me recently. I’m very proud of some of my ex-employees from a decade or more ago. Not only do I smile seeing their happy faces and knowing how well they’ve done, but a couple of them have connected me to new business opportunities. Back in 1955, Life Magazine featured pictures of renowned physicist Albert Einstein at his desk. It was messy to the fourth power! Einstein is quoted as saying, “If a cluttered desk is a sign of a cluttered mind, then what are we to think of an empty desk?” While pecking at my own paper stacks like they were Thanksgiving leftovers, I was reminded that we’ve told the stories of over 1000 entrepreneurs on the weekly Making It television show and that experience has given me a graduate course in start ups and business building. That is not only very important; it also fills me with gratitude. Looking at where you’ve been can help refresh your resolve to push forward. Here are a couple of the thoughts gleaned from those hundreds of hours of conversation about the entrepreneurial spirit. Commitment is the key. To make your dream a durable reality and endure the tough times that always show up, you need a high level of commitment that is cast in stone. Don’t be afraid to ask for help and advice but choose wisely. If your uncle Louie hasn’t started a successful business before, then don’t bother asking if he thinks your business idea is a good one. Some of the most able business owners are also among the most generous people with sharing their experience and insights. While shuffling through my abundant stash of paper, it is fascinating to note how the idea for the Making It TV show evolved over the years. When it was still only on a sheet of paper, the name of the program and its format went through several iterations. Once on the air, features were tried and sometimes quickly discarded. But the important idea that its mission was to inform and inspire entrepreneurial thinkers of all types remained as the guiding force. Staying to that course has been our secret of success. The organizational guru David Allen (author of Getting Things Done ), says GTD rests on the principle that a person needs to move tasks out of the mind by recording them externally and putting them on paper. You see, the file cabinets or overstuffed desk drawers can not only make you scream but they may hold the answers as to how you can survive and maybe even thrive in the tough times. Instead of allowing all the bad news that surrounds us to get inside your mind, it is important and wonderfully nourishing to revisit the history of your dream in words and pictures. While I’m often tempted to handle the abundance of paper in my life with a shredder and a fireplace, I’m glad to have resisted that seductive thought this week. The most important thing is to make sure that you know how to win in 2010. Be sure to visit www.MakingItTV.com !

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Paul Samuelson, Nobel Prize-Winning Economist, Dies At 94

December 13, 2009

NEW YORK — Economist Paul Samuelson, who won a Nobel prize for his effort to bring mathematical analysis into economics, helped shape tax policy in the Kennedy administration and wrote a textbook read by millions of college students, died Sunday. He was 94. Samuelson, who taught for decades at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, died at his home in Belmont, Mass., the school said in a statement announcing his death. President Barack Obama’s chief economic adviser, Lawrence Summers, is his nephew. In 1970, Samuelson became just the second person, and first American, to win the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, created in 1968 by the Central Bank of Sweden. The other Nobels have been awarded since 1901. The award citation said Samuelson “has done more than any other contemporary economist to raise the level of scientific analysis in economic theory.” A 1970 New York Times profile said his mind “possesses the agility of a Nijinsky and the endurance of a cross-country runner.” When he won the Nobel, he said it was “nice to be recognized for hard work.” Samuelson was a liberal, and like many of his generation a follower of British economist John Maynard Keynes, who proposed that a nation needs an activist government that could foster low unemployment by steering tax and monetary policies, even if it meant deficit spending at times. “In the old-fashioned laissez-faire economy, prosperity was indeed a fragile blossom,” he wrote in a 1970 article for The New York Times. “But for a modern ‘mixed economy’ in the post-Keyensian era, fiscal and monetary policies can definitely prevent chronic slumps, can offset automation or under-consumption, can insure that resources find paying work opportunities.” He was among a circle of JFK advisers, who also included John Kenneth Galbraith and Walter Heller, who led Kennedy to recommend the historic income tax cut that Congress eventually passed in early 1964, three months after the president was assassinated. “A temporary reduction in tax rates on individual incomes can be a powerful weapon against recession,” Samuelson had written in a report to Kennedy in early 1961. The cut was widely credited with helping foster the 1960s economic boom. When Heller died in 1987, Samuelson said, “In Kennedy’s Camelot, he was chairman of the greatest team ever assembled. He was a great policy economist and a witty, phrase-making economist.” It was Samuelson’s work as an educator, both in the classroom and as a textbook author, that may have been his most influential role. College students have been reading “Economics” since the late 1940s. It had its roots in a short text that Samuelson put together to use in his MIT classes. It is now in its 19th edition; the more recent editions were co-written by William D. Nordhaus of Yale. The book has sold more than 4 million copies in more than 40 languages. “I knew it was a good book, but what I didn’t realize would be its lasting power,” Samuelson said in a 1998 Associated Press interview. He said his aim was to make economics “understandable and enjoyable. … I think economics – and this is what I’ve tried to impart – has a tremendous amount of human interest in it.” The late Robert Heilbroner, himself a notable author on economics (“The Worldly Philosophers”), wrote in The Nation in 1997 that Samuelson’s text “became almost immediately `the’ college textbook. … His text changed our vision of economics from the dismal science to a study of social possibilities.” Publisher McGraw-Hill paid an unusual tribute in 1997 by reissuing the original 1948 edition, reproducing not just the original text but the illustrations and layout. That same year, in a column by Mark Skousen entitled “Welcome back, Professor,” Forbes magazine praised Samuelson for gradually turning away in his textbook from pure Keynesianism toward more traditional economic theory. Asked about the effort he put into double-checking and updating each edition, Samuelson told The New York Times he did so “because it’s my baby.” For the more casual reader, Samuelson wrote a column for Newsweek magazine from 1966 to 1981. Conservative economist Milton Friedman, a fellow Nobel-winner, also wrote for Newsweek during that period. Born in Gary, Ind., in 1915, Samuelson graduated from the University of Chicago in 1935 and received master’s and doctoral degrees from Harvard. He joined the MIT faculty in 1940. He gained wide notice in the field in 1947 for his book “Foundations of Economic Analysis” and the same year was awarded the American Economic Association’s John Bates Clark Medal for distinguished contributions from an economist under the age of 40. He married Marion Crawford, a fellow economist, in 1938, and he credited her with helping in his early research. They had six children: Jane, Margaret, William, John, Paul and Robert. (The Robert Samuelson who writes a business column for Newsweek is no relation to the Nobel winner.) Marion Crawford Samuelson died of cancer in 1978 at age 62. In 1981, Samuelson married Risha Eckaus. “Paul Samuelson transformed everything he touched: the theoretical foundations of his field, the way economics was taught around the world, the ethos and stature of his department, the investment practices of MIT, and the lives of his colleagues and students,” said Susan Hockfield, MIT’s president, in a statement. Sameulson is survived by his wife, six children and 15 grandchildren. Funeral arrangements will be private, but MIT said it plans to hold a public memorial service. ___ Associated Press Writer Pat Eaton-Robb in Hartford, Conn., contributed to this report.

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U.S. Coordinating With Pakistan on Afghanistan Troop Surge, Holbrooke Says

December 12, 2009

By Indira A.R. Lakshmanan Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. is working aggressively with Pakistan to prevent the American troop surge in Afghanistan from driving insurgents across the border, a top diplomat said. Richard Holbrooke , U.S. special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, also said that while pressure on al- Qaeda has intensified under President Barack Obama , the capture or killing of Osama bin Laden shouldn’t be a “single factor” in fighting terrorism. Holbrooke, in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital with Al Hunt ” airing this weekend, gave Pakistan credit for a “very intense struggle” that has resulted in arrests of terrorists that haven’t received attention. Pakistani authorities fear the U.S. troop increase in neighboring Afghanistan could undermine Pakistan’s own offensive to eliminate insurgents in its Waziristan border area and complicate efforts to find al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders hiding in the porous frontier, Holbrooke said. Top U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Admiral Mike Mullen , the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have been told by Pakistani leaders that “if we don’t coordinate your military operation with ours, you will succeed in Afghanistan by driving Taliban east into our country and will cause a problem,” Holbrooke said. “It’s a legitimate concern,” he said. “So we’re coordinating in ways that I don’t want to go into in detail in order to deal with the problem.” Hunt for bin Laden Holbrooke’s comments on bin Laden contrasted with those of General Stanley McChrystal , the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, who testified on Capitol Hill Dec. 8 that the defeat of the al-Qaeda terrorism network hinges on the capture or killing of bin Laden. McChrystal told the Senate Armed Services Committee that bin Laden’s iconic prominence as a fugitive from U.S. justice underpins the global reach of Islamic terrorism. Holbrooke said in the interview that bin Laden’s capture wouldn’t solve the problem of terrorism. “Eliminating Osama bin Laden eliminates the head of this odious organization, but the problem would continue, and let’s not overly focus on a single man, although the pursuit of him has intensified after a long period of relative neglect.” Holbrooke said the U.S. was “gratified” by Pakistan’s efforts in the last six months to go after home-grown terrorists in its own tribal regions in Swat and Waziristan. ‘Real Efforts’ “The Pakistanis have made real efforts against the Pakistani branch of the Taliban. But as far as the Afghan branch” of the Taliban, whose leadership U.S. intelligence believes is hiding in Pakistan, “we think more can be done, and we’re talking to the Pakistanis about it.” On Dec. 1, Obama announced he would add 30,000 U.S. troops to the 69,000 currently in Afghanistan, with the aim of training and turning over authority to Afghan security forces. He plans to begin withdrawing those additional forces starting in July 2011. Obama’s troop surge, announced in a speech at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, New York, won approval from 62 percent of Americans in a Bloomberg National Poll conducted Dec. 3-7. Opinion is divided about setting a timeline to begin a drawdown, with 49 percent disapproving. Afghan Corruption On the question of corruption , which has dominated discussions of whether the Afghan government will be able to take over responsibilities, allowing for an eventual American exit, Holbrooke said U.S. officials were having private conversations with Afghan President Hamid Karzai about individuals who have been suspected of abusing power. “We are well aware of these stories,” Holbrooke said. “They have been on my mind ever since I took this job.” Asked if the U.S. was pressuring Karzai to cut ties with warlords and government officials accused of graft or trafficking drugs, Holbrooke said “certain types of discussions really need to remain confidential in order to have any effect.” “At the same time, no single person can deal with the corruption issue in an entire country, not Hamid Karzai, not American leaders. It’s an endemic issue,” he said. “We are not fighting in Afghanistan to eliminate corruption,” Holbrooke said. “We are trying to eliminate or reduce corruption in order to succeed militarily.” To contact the reporter on this story: Indira Lakshmanan in Washington at ilakshmanan@bloomberg.net

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Jim Randel: The Soul of an Entrepreneur

December 7, 2009

I have had the good fortune to be close to many successful entrepreneurs. And so I have a perspective as to what separates those who make it big from those who don’t. Yes, the quality of the idea is critical, of course, as is the access to capital. And certainly being at the right place at the right time is the ultimate good fortune. But, if I had to put my finger on the one dominant factor of entrepreneurial success stories, it is the absolute total unwillingness of the entrepreneur to say “uncle.” My premise is that if you put twenty entrepreneurs in a controlled environment, all with the same idea and the same access to capital, only some (if any) will take the idea to the moon. And those who do will be the men or women with the most resolve. Recently I interviewed Arthur Levitt, former Chairman of the SEC, about successful entrepreneurs he knew. Arthur, an entrepreneur himself, noted that he had observed many entrepreneurs but one stood out: “Michael Bloomberg … he has an ability to simply deny defeat. While I am an obsessively tenacious individual, I observed him in several situations reach a point where I would have pulled back – but he just kept pushing forward until he got what he wanted.” Bloomberg is of course a self-made multi-billionaire (and 3d term mayor of NYC). For Bloomberg, and certain entrepreneurs I know, there is no such thing as defeat. Setbacks and failures are just distractions until the target can be subdued. What makes these people this way, I cannot say. I am just sure it is the one factor that separates the great from the almost-great. Dr. William James is considered the father of the American psychological movement. Here, from Robert Richardson’s great biography of William James (including excerpts from James’ 2900-page Principles of Psychology ) is how James might describe the soul of an entrepreneur: “There are, of course, cases of volition that involve real determination, when we must make a distinct effort – a ‘slow dead heave of the will’ – to hold on to an idea, to ‘fill our mind with an idea which, but for our effort, would slip away.’ “(Some people) choose their attitude and know that the facing of its difficulties shall remain a permanent portion of their task …They find a zest in this difficult clinging to truth, or a lonely sort of joy in pressing on the thorn … and thereby they become the masters and the lords of life. They must be counted with henceforth; they form a part of human destiny.” One phrase says it all: “a lonely sort of joy in pressing on the thorn.” Jim Randel is the founder of The Skinny On books – an award-winning series of books that help young adults understand basic issues of financial and personal literacy. His latest book, The Skinny on Success , has been enthusiastically endorsed by people across the spectrum of personal achievement.

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Edward Harrison: The Limitations of Government

November 24, 2009

This post originally appeared at Credit Writedowns . In this post: A few thoughts about the limitations of government Our founding fathers How large should government be? How policy helps frame the debate Where we are headed In a recent post, ” Stop the madness now! ” I voiced my growing concern with the direction in which the country is headed. I am not alone in my anxiety. Despite recent improvements in the economy, most recent polls show that Americans are more alarmed now than they were early in the year when things looked rather bleak. While these concerns have manifested themselves in various ways depending in large part on political affiliation, it is clear much of the worry centers on jobs – or the lack thereof. Policy makers have been ‘wildly’ successful in stabilizing the economy in the U.S. and elsewhere. Given the enormity of the financial crisis, it is unrealistic to have expected a far better economic situation than the present one. Nevertheless, disenchantment with the economic direction has reached a fever pitch and put the Obama Administration on its back foot. In my view, this is not just because the economy remains weak. Americans are angry because the economic policies used to try to fix our predicament have been both unfair and opaque. They have favored special interests like big banks and much of the maneuvering has been done in secret . All of this has increased distrust of government and weakened the Obama Administration. The result of the increasing distrust of government has been a renewed questioning of the role and limitation of government in the American economy. When thinking about government and its role and size, there are three camps of thought. Big Government . Supporters of big government believe that government can do good. In this view, an increase in the size of government is not just needed but necessary in a severe economic downturn in order to fill the void left by the private sector’s fragility. The large scale fiscal stimulus enacted in 2001 at the beginning of President Bush’s first term, in 2008 at the tail end of the Bush Administration, and in 2009 during the Obama Administration are examples of Big Government in action. Limited Government . People in this camp believe that government must always be held in check – even in times of economic distress. If not, a self-perpetuating bureaucracy develops, with a cadre of individuals dependent on government and wedded to institutions or programs which no longer have great value. In this view, expanding government is like moving to into bigger house;

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Flu Shot Made From Caterpillars Fails to Prove Safety, FDA Advisers Find

November 19, 2009

By Tom Randall Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) — Protein Sciences Corp. failed to prove its experimental flu vaccine is safe enough to be approved and more study is needed, a U.S. advisory panel said. The shot, called FluBlok, is produced in less than two months by inserting flu genes into an insect virus and growing it in caterpillar ovary cells. Members of the advisory panel to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration voted 6-to-5 that the company hadn’t proven the vaccine safe, saying clinical trials weren’t large enough to support mass production. Nine of the 11 panelists said the shot was as effective as licensed vaccines in adults ages 18 to 49. Closely held Protein Sciences, based in Meriden, Connecticut, and backed by $147 million in U.S. contracts, is seeking to become the country’s first supplier to break from the 50-year-old technique of growing the vaccine in chicken eggs. The egg-based process has been blamed for delays in this year’s pandemic swine flu vaccine, and U.S. health officials have pledged to increase production times. “The reason we’re struggling so much is the safety database isn’t very large,” said Pamela McInnes, director of the Division of Extramural Research at the National Institutes of Health and one of the panelists. “The company has clearly done some nice work, and there’s been a lot of progress made. There’s not a signal in my mind that I’m very worried, but we are missing information.” Patient Hospitalized There were several examples of face swelling reported in clinical trials, and one person was hospitalized for a condition called pleuropericarditis, characterized by swelling around the heart and lungs. While the hospitalized patient had reported fever, shortness of breath and chest pain a week before he was vaccinated, the shot couldn’t be ruled out as a contributor to his illness, panelists said. Staff documents released by the FDA ahead of today’s panel hearing said the vaccine was found to be as safe and effective as other flu shots in four human trials covering 3,231 adults ages 18 and older. Panelists today said that because the vaccine wasn’t significantly more effective than competitors, the company needed to prove safety in larger trials in order to justify approval. While the FDA usually follows its panels’ recommendations, the agency isn’t required to do so. The new swine flu strain identified in April has infected 22 million Americans and killed about 3,900, according to the Atlanta-based CDC. More people with flu symptoms sought treatment from doctors in October and November than at the February peak of a normal flu season, according to data on the CDC Web site . The U.S. flu season runs from November to March. Vaccine Delays Vaccine to combat the swine flu, known as H1N1, began arriving in October, and about 50 million doses are available for shipment, health officials said yesterday. That’s less than half what officials projected in July for the end of October. Novavax Inc. , which has enrolled 1,000 recipients in clinical trials of a competing technology, rebounded in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading on the panel’s decision. The shares fell 4 cents, or 1 percent, to $3.77 at 4 p.m., after declining as much as 6.6 percent during the meeting. The Rockville, Maryland-based company makes a vaccine from virus- like particles, structures that mimic the flu without causing infection. Early Bets Novartis AG , based in Basel, Switzerland, London-based GlaxoSmithKline Plc and Baxter International Inc. based in Deerfield, Illinois, made early bets on a method of growing the live vaccine in cultured animal cells. Novartis, which sells vaccine using the cell-based technique in Europe, received U.S. contracts for $487 million to build a production plant in North Carolina. The animal-cell process, which relies on growing the live virus in cells, may prove less dependable than Protein Sciences’ technique, said William Schaffner , chairman of the department of preventive medicine at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tennessee, before today’s meeting. “Variability is gone, the egg allergy is gone, purity increases so it can be much more refined — that’s exciting to us,” Schaffner, who is a consultant for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s advisory committee on vaccines, said in a telephone interview. “We are at the beginning of some major changes in influenza vaccine technology.” Not Necessarily Faster Animal cell-based technology isn’t necessarily faster than egg-based, Philip Hosbach, vice president of immunization policy and government relations for the vaccine unit of Paris-based Sanofi-Aventis SA , said yesterday at a congressional oversight hearing in Washington. Vas Narasimhan , president of Novartis’s U.S. vaccine unit, said the cell-based method may save six to eight weeks of production time. “The big companies are going with mammalian cells, which really doesn’t make any sense,” said Daniel Adams , chief executive officer of Protein Sciences, in a telephone interview before the panel met. “You’re substituting mammalian cells for eggs, but you still have to use a live virus. You still have to wait for a seed strain from the CDC. “People for a long time thought you could deal with a pandemic using eggs,” Adams said. “My gut reaction is that change comes slowly, but I certainly expect our technology to be a major player in the flu.” Adams didn’t immediately return a phone call for comment after the panel vote. Cell-Based Shots Novartis’s cell-based vaccines for seasonal flu and swine flu, approved for use in Europe, show the safety and effectiveness of the production method, company spokesman Eric Althoff said in an e-mail. The drugmaker’s technique produced the first batch of swine flu vaccine, he said. “Existing technologies are here now; they’re tried and true,” Donna Cary , a spokeswoman for Sanofi, said today in a telephone interview. She said Sanofi is evaluating new vaccine technologies including cell-based production and a so-called universal vaccine that would cover all strains and wouldn’t need to be re-administered each year. A Glaxo representative couldn’t be reached. Most seasonal flu vaccines are made by taking versions of the three most-commonly circulating influenza strains and growing the virus in millions of chicken eggs. The virus is then removed from the eggs and damaged so it can’t cause infections. Some strains grow faster than others, and a poorly performing seed virus such as the pandemic swine flu, can delay production, which typically take 5 to 6 months. Caterpillar Virus Protein Sciences extracts genes from the dead flu virus and inserts it in a virus that feeds on a tropical caterpillar known as an armyworm . The virus is then exposed to ovary cells harvested from a single caterpillar and reproduced in large quantities. Ovary cells are used because they remain stable as they are cultured in a laboratory. The caterpillar virus feeds on the ovary cells in vessels similar to those used to ferment beer, and there isn’t the variability of trying to grow a live flu virus that isn’t well adapted for chicken eggs, said Adams of Protein Sciences. The consistency of the caterpillar virus growth cuts down on the manufacturing time. The end result is a vaccine made of protein and salt water, he said. Because the vaccine is pure, preservatives such as thimerosal aren’t necessary. Protein Sciences fought off an involuntary bankruptcy suit by creditor Emergent BioSolutions Inc. in September. In addition to its government contracts, the company is funded by private investors including Wyeth, which was acquired by New York-based Pfizer Inc. for $68 billion in October. To contact the reporters on this story: Tom Randall in New York at trandall6@bloomberg.net

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Curtis "50 Cent" Jackson: Turn Shit Into Sugar

November 19, 2009

The following is an excerpt from The 50th Law , adapted for HuffPost. Every negative situation contains the possibility for something positive, an opportunity. It is how you look at it that matters. Your lack of resources can be an advantage, forcing you to be more inventive with the little that you have. Losing a battle can allow you to frame yourself as the sympathetic underdog. Do not let fears make you wait for a better moment or become conservative. If there are circumstances you cannot control, make the best of them. It is the ultimate alchemy to transform all such negatives into advantages and power. Events in life are not negative or positive. They are completely neutral. The universe does not care about your fate; it is indifferent to the violence that may hit you or to death itself. Things merely happen to you. It is your mind that chooses to interpret them as negative or positive. And because you have layers of fear that dwell deep within you, your natural tendency is to interpret temporary obstacles in your path as something larger–setbacks and crises. In such a mind-frame, you exaggerate the dangers. If someone attacks and harms you in some way, you focus on the money or position you have lost in the battle, the negative publicity, or the harsh emotions that have been churned up. This causes you to grow cautious, to retreat, hoping to spare yourself more of these negative things. It is a time, you tell yourself, to lay low and wait for things to get better; you need calmness and security. What you do not realize is that you are inadvertently making the situation worse. Your rival only gets stronger as you sit back; the negative publicity becomes firmly associated with you. Being conservative turns into a habit that carries over into less difficult moments. It becomes harder and harder to move to the offensive. In essence you have chosen to cast life’s inevitable twists of fortune as hardships, giving them a weight and endurance they do not deserve. What you need to do is to take the opposite approach. Instead of becoming discouraged and depressed by any kind of downturn, you must see this as a wake- up call, a challenge that you will transform into an opportunity for power. Your energy levels rise. You move to the attack, surprising your enemies with boldness. You care less what people think about you and this paradoxically causes them to admire you–the negative publicity is turned around. You do not wait for things to get better–you seize this chance to prove yourself. Mentally framing a negative event as a blessing in disguise makes it easier for you to move forward. It is a kind of mental alchemy, transforming shit into sugar. Understand: We live in a society of relative prosperity, but in many ways this turns out to be a detriment to our spirit. We come to feel that we naturally deserve good things, that we have certain privileges due to us. When setbacks occur, it is almost a personal affront or punishment. “How could this have happened?” we ask. We either blame other people or we blame ourselves. In both cases, we lose valuable time and become unnecessarily emotional. In places like the hood or in any kind of materially impoverished environment, the response to hardship is much different. There, bad things happening assume a kind of normality. They are part of daily life. The hustler thinks: “I must make the most of what I have, even the bad stuff, because things are not going to get better on their own. It is foolish to wait; tomorrow may bring even worse shit.” This hustler mindset is more realistic and effective. The truth is that life is by nature harsh and competitive. No matter how much money or resources you have accumulated, someone will try to take them from you, or unexpected changes in the world will push you backward. These are not adverse circumstances but merely life as it is. You have no time to lose to fear and depression, and you do not have the luxury of waiting.

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