models

Toyota Motor Says Compact Hybrid Model May Be First of Expanded Prius Line

January 11, 2010

By Alan Ohnsman Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) — Toyota Motor Corp. , the largest seller of gasoline-electric autos, said a small hybrid car may be the first of a U.S. lineup using the Prius name and it will add eight of the fuel-efficient models within a few years. The compact FT-CH hatchback, 22 inches (56 centimeters) shorter in length than the current Prius, was unveiled today at the Detroit auto show. The car, aimed at young buyers and priced less than a mid-size Prius, may join a “Prius family,” said Jim Lentz , the Toyota City, Japan-based company’s U.S. sales chief. Toyota seeks to retain the lead in sales of advanced, fuel- saving vehicles it has held since the U.S. introduction of Prius a decade ago. Nissan Motor Co. and General Motors Co. plan to begin sales this year of plug-in cars powered by lithium-ion batteries, challenging Toyota to respond without diluting its hybrid sales. “The issue becomes how are they not going to take the steam out of their other hybrid vehicles,” said Paul Lacy , an analyst at forecaster IHS Global Insight in Troy, Michigan. “As for a compact hybrid, people already have this idea that hybrids are small, so going down in size may be a challenge.” Toyota didn’t say when a retail version of the FT-CH compact car would go on sale. The four-passenger model, designed at Toyota’s studio in Nice, France, would offer fuel economy that exceeds that of the 50 mile-per-gallon Prius, Toyota said. The company’s mid-size Prius is priced from $22,400. Fuel Economy “The strategy is still taking shape and obviously it will require additional models to qualify as a family,” Lentz said in a news conference at the North American International Auto Show. “Among others, the FT-CH is a concept that we are considering.” Toyota’s U.S. sales unit is based in Torrance, California. Toyota’s American depositary receipts rose 44 cents to $86.20 at 4:06 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. They have gained 2.4 percent this year. About 20 million autos, or almost half of all global sales, will offer some form of electric propulsion by 2020, according to an estimate by market forecaster CSM Worldwide. Hybrid cars and light trucks gained U.S. market share in 2009 as sales of the fuel-efficient models declined at less than half the rate for all vehicles. Consumers bought 290,415 hybrids, led by Toyota’s Prius, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That was an 8.1 percent drop from the previous year, as U.S. auto sales slid 21 percent. Hybrids accounted for 2.8 percent of deliveries, up from 2.4 percent in 2008. New Models CSM said North America may trail Europe and Asia in adopting such models, particularly those powered solely by batteries. Annual sales of electrified cars and trucks in the region may only climb to 1 million within a decade, and most will be gasoline-electric hybrids, CSM said. Carmakers have been adding gasoline-electric vehicles and developing models that can recharge from household electrical outlets as governments push for higher fuel economy. Toyota says it also aims to offer more advanced vehicles to counter the potential for an oil shortage. “Within the next 10 to 20 years, we will not only reach peak oil, we will enter a period where demand for all liquid fuels will exceed supply,” Lentz said. The industry must develop engines that reduce or eliminate petroleum use, he said. Lentz said consumer sales of a plug-in Prius hybrid, with 13 miles of range powered solely by a lithium-ion battery, and a new small electric car using only battery power, will begin with model year 2012. The company also aims to start sales of a separate electric model powered by hydrogen fuel cells in 2015, he said. To contact the reporter on this story: Alan Ohnsman in Detroit aohnsman@bloomberg.net

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GM Meeting Whitacre Profit Goal Means Boosting Sales of `Critical’ Sedans

January 8, 2010

By Jeff Green and Keith Naughton Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) — General Motors Co. is cutting prices and reworking ads to revive sales of two sedans that executives consider vital to meeting Chairman Ed Whitacre ’s goal for a 2010 profit . The moves are aimed at shrinking dealer stockpiles of the Chevrolet Malibu and Cadillac CTS that ballooned to more than twice the industry average, North American President Mark Reuss said in an interview ahead of next week’s Detroit auto show . “The CTS is going to be fixed, now,” said Reuss, 46. “We’re going to be right on the back of that working on Malibu. We’ve got to have Malibu selling a lot more than we do right now. We’re looking at what we should be doing with the car versus where we’re at.” Whitacre’s prediction this week of “positive net income” in 2010 expanded on his challenges to management since becoming chief executive officer on Dec. 1 when the board ousted Fritz Henderson . He has begun early repayments on GM’s $6.7 billion in U.S. loans and replaced more than a dozen executives. The former AT&T Inc. CEO and chairman is pushing his team to keep U.S. market share at about 20 percent, after 2009’s 19.9 percent, said three people familiar with the goal who asked not to be identified because the plans aren’t public. Whitacre told reporters this week he wasn’t commenting on his plans. 2010 Outlook Holding onto that share may require boosting sales by about 200,000 units, from 2.07 million last year, based on GM’s forecast for industry volume s of as much as 11.5 million. That heightens the importance of the CTS, Cadillac’s 2009 U.S. top seller, and the Malibu, the No. 2 Chevrolet car after the Impala. GM unveiled the current CTS and Malibu designs in 2007. “Those are the two critical vehicles in GM’s lineup,” said Michael Robinet , a CSM Worldwide analyst in Northville, Michigan. “They have to have success there as an anchor to their overall portfolio.” President Barack Obama, whose administration oversaw Detroit-based GM’s government-backed bankruptcy last year, alluded to the Malibu in a March 30 speech as one of the models that is “now outperforming the best cars made abroad.” Malibu and CTS inventory reached a five-month supply in late 2009, more than double the industry average of roughly two months, Reuss said. The CTS was priced too high against models such as Bayerische Motoren Werke AG ’s 3-Series, he said. GM slashed CTS prices this week by as much as $3,000, said Steve Shannon , executive director of marketing for Cadillac. One popular version was pared to $39,990 from $42,255, with monthly lease payments dropping to $369 from $417, he said. BMW’s U.S. Web site advertises 3-Series leases for as low as $379. ‘Didn’t Wait’ “Finally GM is willing to look at the price of the vehicle and adjust it to the market conditions,” said Dave Butler, general manager of Suburban Cadillac in Troy, Michigan, and Suburban Chevrolet-Cadillac in Ann Arbor, Michigan. “They didn’t wait until it got to a critical level.” Butler said the no-interest financing offered by GM on 2009 Malibus isn’t being matched on the 2010 model, in effect boosting the price. “A lot of purchase intenders may be waiting for that kind of incentive,” he said. Advertising decisions also played a role in the Malibu’s slowing sales, as GM “walked away” after the vehicle’s initial promotion to focus on other models, Reuss said. “There’s going to be a whole bunch of things we’re going to do look at and do, and it’s not going to take me a year to do it, either,” Reuss said of the Malibu, declining to elaborate. Sales Slide Malibu’s 9 percent decline in 2009 U.S. sales trailed the industry’s 21 percent slide, and the 25 percent decrease for the full Chevrolet line, according to industry researcher Autodata Corp. in Woodcliff Lake, New Jersey. CTS sales fell 34 percent, compared with 32 percent for all Cadillacs. The Malibu and CTS aren’t GM’s only efforts to woo car buyers after focusing on light trucks in the 1990s and much of the past decade. The Chevrolet Aveo RS show car, with hidden rear-door handles and exposed headlamps to emulate motorcycle styling, will debut next week in Detroit at the North American International Auto Show. Chevrolet and Cadillac are now more pivotal to GM’s sales, as the automaker trims U.S. brands to four from eight to help end annual losses that began in 2005. Buick and GMC also are being retained, while Saab, Hummer, Saturn and Pontiac are being dropped. Reuss said he will present his 2010 priorities to the board next week, which include promoting vehicle quality over incentives to create profitable North American sales growth. New models reaching showrooms this year include a two-door CTS, Chevrolet’s Cruze and plug-in Volt, and Buick Regal. Reuss said he’s using a page on the Facebook social networking Web site to keep in contact with customers and buff GM’s image one buyer at a time, if necessary. “I’ve been here two weeks and I’m right in the middle of it,” said Reuss, whom Whitacre named to the post on Dec. 4. As to the CEO’s 2010 challenge for net income, Reuss said, “We’re going to make that, I think. I want to get the place profitable, I’m tired of it.” To contact the reporters on this story: Jeff Green in Southfield, Michigan, at jgreen16@bloomberg.net ; Keith Naughton in Southfield, Michigan, at Knaughton3@bloomberg.net

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Palm’s Pre, Pixi Are Said to Be Debuting on Verizon’s Network This Month

January 5, 2010

By Amy Thomson and Ari Levy Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) — Palm Inc. ’s Pre and Pixi will be offered this month by Verizon Wireless, the second U.S. wireless carrier to sell the devices, according to a person familiar with the matter. Verizon, the biggest U.S. mobile-phone service, will introduce the models this week at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, said the person, who declined to be named because the announcement hasn’t been made public. The Pre and Pixi, currently sold in the U.S. only by Sprint Nextel Corp. , will include some changes such as additional memory, the person said. “This is Palm’s second chance to shine after what’s been a real lackluster performance,” said Maribel Lopez , founder of Lopez Research LLC, a San Francisco-based consulting and research firm. Palm has “to prove that this platform has legs and they can do something with it.” Palm is seeking to entice new customers after reporting its 10th straight quarterly loss last month. Chief Executive Officer Jon Rubinstein had said in December that the company planned to announce new service-provider partners in the near future. Ehud Gelblum , a Morgan Stanley analyst who initiated coverage of Palm yesterday, recommended the stock, citing the likelihood of additional carrier agreements. Derick Mains , a spokesman for Sunnyvale, California-based Palm, declined to comment, as did Brenda Raney , a spokeswoman for Basking Ridge, New Jersey-based Verizon Wireless. Verizon’s Lineup The price of the Palm phones will be determined this week, said the person familiar with the matter. At Verizon, Palm will be competing with smartphones such as Research In Motion Ltd.’s Storm 2 and Motorola Inc.’s Droid, which uses Google Inc.’s Android operating system. The Droid sells for $200 on Verizon’s Web site, while the Storm 2 costs $20 less. Verizon Wireless is co-owned by Verizon Communications Inc. and Vodafone Group Plc. AT&T Inc., which has exclusive rights to Apple Inc.’s iPhone, may start selling Palm’s phones in the first half of the year, Gelblum said. Additional carriers in the U.S. and abroad will more than double Palm’s base of potential subscribers to 406 million from 149 million currently, the New York-based analyst said. Palm rose 29 cents to $10.32 yesterday in Nasdaq Stock Market trading. The shares more than tripled in value last year. Verizon Communications, down 2.3 percent in 2009, added 15 cents to $33.28 yesterday. To contact the reporters on this story: Amy Thomson in New York at athomson6@bloomberg.net ; Ari Levy in San Francisco at alevy5@bloomberg.net .

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News Corp. Joined By Rivals Considering Pulling Their Stories From Google

November 24, 2009

By Greg Bensinger and Brian Womack Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) — Publishers of the Denver Post and the Dallas Morning News may pull some of their stories from Google Inc. ’s news site, a move that would emulate News Corp.’s Rupert Murdoch . News Corp. is considering blocking Google’s search engine from displaying its news articles and is talking to Microsoft Corp. about displaying stories on its Bing site, people familiar with the situation said yesterday. MediaNews Group Inc., the Post’s publisher, will block Google News when it starts charging readers in Pennsylvania and California for online content next year, Chief Executive Officer Dean Singleton said in an interview. Morning News owner A.H. Belo Corp. may also introduce online subscription fees and also block Google, Executive Vice President James Moroney said. “The things that go behind pay walls, we will not let Google search to, but the things that are outside the pay wall we probably will, because we want the traffic,” Singleton said. Newspaper publishers, grappling with a collapse in the print-ad market, are considering Web-site charges and are pushing back against Google, which displays headlines and excerpts from stories on its free news site . News Corp. , whose Wall Street Journal already charges for online subscriptions, has also said that it plans more paid-for content. While newspapers have complained about Google using their news to attract users and boost revenue, fewer than 1 percent have opted out of the service, Josh Cohen, head of Google’s news division, said in an interview. Value in Traffic “There’s value in that traffic and I think publishers recognize that value,” Cohen said. “The reason they’re not opting out is they’re getting something from that relationship.” Google Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt said in an interview this month that his company, owner of the most popular Internet search engine, would like to keep news providers on its site. “We do worry about it, and we think it would be a bad outcome” for newspapers to leave Google, Schmidt said. “We would encourage them to stay in our program.” Gabriel Stricker , a Google spokesman, declined to comment yesterday on any talks between News Corp. and Microsoft, as well as the other newspapers potentially opting out of Google News. Murdoch, News Corp. ’s chairman and CEO, said in an interview on Sky News Australia this month that he may remove the company’s content from Google searches. The company’s newspapers include the Times of London and the New York Post. MediaNews, based in Denver, will block Google News from the content it puts behind a so-called pay wall early next year at newspapers in Chico, California, and York, Pennsylvania, Singleton said. Paid Models A.H. Belo, based in Dallas, hasn’t decided if it will block Google News and any action isn’t “imminent,” said Moroney, who is also publisher of the Morning News. Blocking Google would be part of a larger strategy, he said. A.H. Belo is considering models for charging for some of its Web content and plans to implement a pay wall within six months at either the Morning News, Rhode Island’s Providence Journal or Riverside Press-Enterprise , published in Riverside, California, Moroney said. That may require Web readers to go directly to the newspaper’s site to read stories, he said. “This is traffic that’s not being monetized to any great degree,” Moroney said. “It’s akin to a person who drops into town, buys one copy of your newspaper and leaves town again and yet you spend a whole bunch of time building your business around that type of customer.” Google, based in Mountain View, California, rose $12.39 to $582.35 in Nasdaq Stock Market trading yesterday. A.H. Belo gained 2 cents to $4.40 on the New York Stock Exchange. MediaNews is closely held. Google Criticisms Google News gathers stories from the Web and displays their headlines, photos and the first few lines with links to the full articles on the original publishers’ Web sites. Google has also faced international criticism from media companies over the service. In 2007, Belgian newspapers won a copyright suit blocking Google from linking to their articles on Google News. Fewer than 100 publishers have completely blocked their content from Google News search results, Cohen said. “You can point back to the traffic that we’re sending and the fact that so few of those publishers have opted out as a pretty strong case that there’s value being delivered back to these publishers,” Cohen said. Moroney said more publishers are “focused on attracting the really engaged consumers who come multiple times and stay for lots of minutes every time” rather than the casual online reader who happens upon a news site by chance. U.S. newspaper publishers lost 28 percent of their print and online ad revenue in the third quarter from a year earlier, the Newspaper Association of America reported this month. To contact the reporters on this story: Greg Bensinger in New York at gbensinger1@bloomberg.net ; Brian Womack in San Francisco at bwomack1@bloomberg.net

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Fed Makes Monitoring Capital Adequacy Foremost Concern Amid Talk of Bubble

November 20, 2009

By Craig Torres and Michael McKee Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve officials are stepping up scrutiny of the biggest U.S. banks to ensure the lenders can withstand a reversal of soaring global-asset prices, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Supervisors are examining whether banks such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. , Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc . have enough capital for the risks they take, how much they know about the strength of their counterparties and whether risk managers have authority to influence bank practices and policies. Lawmakers led by Senator Christopher Dodd have criticized the Fed for failing to prevent a decline in lending standards that contributed to the credit crisis. The central bank’s monitoring takes on renewed urgency as Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s pledge to keep the benchmark interest rate near zero for “an extended period” is helping to fuel a surge in assets. The MSCI AC World stock index is up 71 percent since hitting a recession low on March 9. Gold reached an all- time high of $1,145.50 an ounce Nov. 18. The policy is raising the “systemic risk” of new asset bubbles, Bill Gross , who runs the world’s largest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said in a note posted on the Newport Beach, California-based company’s Web site yesterday. Finance officials in Asia say a bubble fueled by the Fed’s low rates has already arrived. More taxpayer-funded bailouts following the rescues of insurer American International Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. , the third-largest U.S. bank by assets, would stoke public anger against the Fed as Congress debates whether to reduce its powers and independence. Andrew Stern , president of the Service Employees International Union, led a protest rally of 150 people outside of Goldman Sachs’ Washington office Nov. 16. ‘Massive’ Pressure “The Fed staff has to be under a massive amount of pressure,” said Vincent Reinhart , a former director of the Fed’s Division of Monetary Affairs and now a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “They must have a sense of zero tolerance for failure.” Banks might not like “leverage ratios or capital requirements, but they can be effective and protect against the really bad behavior,” he said. Such controls are critical to economic recovery because they can help ensure that large banks aren’t hurt by swings in the capital markets. Banks are still clamping down on credit to consumers and businesses, even though gross domestic product expanded at a 3.5 percent annual pace in the third quarter after a yearlong contraction. Falling Loans Total loan originations in September at Bank of America Corp. , the largest U.S. bank by assets, fell 6 percent to $53.6 billon from a month earlier, according to a Treasury Department report this week. The cause of the decline was “decreased demand for loans in the weak economy as companies and individuals look to reduce debt,” said Scott Silvestri , a spokesman for the Charlotte, North Carolina-based company. New loans at Wells Fargo & Co. , the nation’s fourth-biggest lender by assets, dropped 14 percent to $47.4 billion. Mary Eshet , a spokeswoman for the San Francisco bank, didn’t immediately respond to calls for comment. Taxpayers shored up the financial system with the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. Another round of bailouts would likely stir up more congressional ire. “My constituents, they’re not just anxious, they are mad,” Representative Michael Burgess , a Republican from Ft. Worth, Texas, told Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner at a hearing of the Joint Economic Committee yesterday. Capital Injections Under the TARP’s capital-purchase program, the Treasury injected about $205 billion into more than 600 financial institutions of all sizes as of Nov. 13, according to department figures. John Mack , chief executive officer of Morgan Stanley, said banks’ behavior justified a Fed crackdown. “We cannot control ourselves,” he said yesterday at a panel discussion hosted by Bloomberg News and Vanity Fair at Bloomberg LP’S headquarters in New York. “You have to step in and control the Street.” The Fed is already under pressure from Dodd, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, who proposed legislation Nov. 10 to strip the central bank of its supervisory authority. The Connecticut Democrat’s move strikes at the core of efforts by Bernanke, 55, and Governor Daniel Tarullo , 57, to overhaul Fed supervision and increase monitoring of risks to the financial system. Tarullo, President Barack Obama’s first appointee to the central bank, is making greater use of so-called horizontal reviews that compare several banks’ exposures and practices. Running Scenarios He is also drawing more on the Fed’s staff of 220 Ph.D. economists to help identify risks. The Fed is now more likely to pull in the economists to run scenarios on what would happen to bank profits if global markets plunged, especially if the central bank’s exams turn up concentrations of risk throughout the financial system. The Fed is also studying how well banks match funding with the maturity of their assets and how the lenders’ risk managers interact with their trading and loan operations, according to the people familiar with the program. Fed spokeswoman Barbara Hagenbaugh declined to comment. The close attention to banks’ capital adequacy started in July when the Fed began applying some of the lessons it learned from stress tests conducted in May. Those tests showed how the 19 largest lenders would fare in a slower recovery with higher- than-forecast unemployment . Ten companies including Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup needed additional capital. Abrupt Turns Assuring that institutions are strong enough to weather an abrupt turn in asset prices “is critical,” said Deborah Bailey , deputy director of supervision at the Fed’s Board of Governors until June, when she joined Deloitte & Touche LLP in New York as a director. “The Fed is committed to try and get it right.” The central bank has been Morgan Stanley’s primary regulator since September 2008, when it became a bank-holding company to gain access to Fed funding after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed. “We have probably 15 to 20 Fed regulators in our building 24 hours a day,” Mack said. “They test our models. They question everything we do. I’ve never been regulated like that before. It’s a different environment. Someone said to me, ‘What do you think of it?’ I love it.” Some officials in Asia are questioning whether regulation alone is enough, suggesting the Fed’s record-low federal funds rate — the central bank’s interest-rate target for overnight loans between banks — is pushing asset prices in their region too high. Liu Mingkang , chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, warned Nov. 15 of “new, real and insurmountable risks to the recovery of the global economy.” ‘Financial Turmoil’ Continuing the zero-rate policy may lead emerging economies “to overheat and experience financial turmoil,” Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said in Tokyo Nov. 16. The MSCI Asia Pacific index is up 66 percent since the March 9 low, and Asian countries from Singapore to South Korea are trying to rein in surging property prices. The U.S. shouldn’t adjust monetary policy to account for rising Asian assets, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said Nov. 18. “If there are problems in real- estate markets in Asia, it is not very practical to say you should raise interest rates in the U.S.,” he said. U.S. investors are concerned, too. They would have to be “joking or smoking — something” to think the Fed would raise rates with 15 million people out of work, Gross wrote in his note. Pimco had $940.4 billion in assets under management as of Sept. 30, according to its Web site. Safe Investments Nevertheless, yields on safe investments such as three- month Treasury bills — which hit .005 yesterday — are so low, money managers are increasing the risks they take, and “the legitimate question of the day is, ‘Is a zero-percent funds rate creating the next financial bubble, and if so, will the Fed and other central banks raise rates proactively, even in the face of double-digit unemployment?’” Gross said. Central bankers are “carefully evaluating” the situation, Bernanke told the Economic Club of New York Nov. 16. “It’s not obvious to me, in any case, that there’s any large misalignments currently in the U.S. financial system.” He said the “best approach here, if at all possible, is to use supervisory and regulatory methods to restrain undue risk- taking and to make sure the system is resilient in case an asset-price bubble bursts in the future.” The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is trading at its highest valuation in seven years after climbing 62 percent from a 12- year low in March. The index is valued at almost 22 times the reported operating profits of its companies, more than twice its price-earnings ratio on March 6. Internet Bubble The current ratio is still well below the 30.68 P/E reached the week of March 24, 2000, near the end of the Internet bubble. And as corporate earnings continue to rise, the estimated S&P P/E ratio based on analysts’ forecasts for future earnings falls to 17.35. Profits at Wall Street banks surged in the third quarter as they risked more of their own capital. Goldman Sachs, which converted to a bank-holding company to get Fed backing during the crisis, said Oct. 15 that profit more than tripled to $3.19 billion from a year earlier on trading gains and investments with the firm’s own money. Morgan Stanley reported profit of $757 million on Oct. 21, its first in a year, as trading revenue rose to the highest level in 12 months. Earnings for JPMorgan Chase , the second- biggest U.S. bank by assets, were $3.59 billion, the highest since the 2007 collapse of the subprime-mortgage market, as investment-banking revenue helped it overcome losses on consumer loans. Too Reliant Fed officials are watching to see if financial companies may become too reliant on short-term funding the longer rates remain at record lows, according to the people familiar with the process. The central bank won’t raise its benchmark until August 2010, according to the median estimate of 45 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan telegraphed increases in his 2004-2005 tightening cycle with a phrase in the Fed statement that said “policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured.” When asked if investors should be prepared for the possibility of more-abrupt action this time, Charles Plosser , president of the Philadelphia Fed said yes. “There are states of the world and conditions that could arise where we may have to raise rates a lot faster than the last cycle,” he said in an interview. “I am not saying that will be the case. I am just saying we just have to make the markets understand that we will do that if it is required.” To contact the reporters on this story: Craig Torres in Washington at ctorres3@bloomberg.net Michael McKee in New York at mmckee@bloomberg.net

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Morgan Stanley’s Mack Says He Loves Closer Scrutiny From Federal Reserve

November 19, 2009

By Michael J. Moore Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) — Morgan Stanley Chief Executive Officer John Mack said he appreciates the increased regulation from the Federal Reserve that’s come after converting to a bank holding company in the midst of the financial crisis. “We have probably 15 to 20 Fed regulators in our building 24 hours a day,” Mack, 65, said yesterday at the “Covering the Crisis” panel hosted by Bloomberg News and Vanity Fair in New York. “They test our models. They question everything we do. I’ve never been regulated like that before. It’s a different environment. Someone said to me, ‘What do you think of it?’ I love it.” The Fed became the firm’s primary regulator when it approved Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley’s applications to become bank holding companies in September last year. The decision gave them access to funds from the central bank after credit for the firms seized up following the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Mack, who plans to continue as chairman of New York-based Morgan Stanley after stepping down as CEO at the end of this year, said regulators should have been more proactive before the crisis. Mack said he even reached out to regulators after turning down financing a highly leveraged deal during the credit boom. “I missed a piece of business, I can live with that, but as soon as I hung up the phone someone else put up 10 times leverage,” Mack said he told the regulators. “We cannot control ourselves. You have to step in and control the Street.” Mack, who was in the audience of the panel, made the comments while answering a question of how he viewed the media coverage of his firm during the crisis. Mack said the majority of stories were fair, but reports that Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. , which injected $9 billion into the firm last September, was close to backing out of the deal were “absolute b-s.” To contact the reporter on this story: Michael J. Moore in New York at mmoore55@bloomberg.net .

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Renault Targets U.S. Partner Better Place for French Electric-Car Network

November 11, 2009

By Laurence Frost Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) — Renault SA plans to bring in U.S. partner Better Place to run its future electric-car charging network in its home market of France, Chief Operating Officer Patrick Pelata said. Besides recharging stations planned by Electricite de France SA , the country needs the California startup’s battery- swapping service to maximize demand for electric vehicles, Pelata said in an interview yesterday at Renault’s headquarters in the Paris suburb of Boulogne-Billancourt. “We’re working on having it in France,” Pelata said. “Nobody else is working with this business model, so it’s probably going to be with Better Place.” Starting in 2012, drivers of electric Renault cars in Israel and Denmark will use Better Place’s roadside stations to switch depleted batteries for recharged units in three minutes, extending their effective range beyond a single charge. In France, the government has appointed state-owned EDF to roll out a recharging network that may be open to rival power suppliers and operators. Renault, France’s second-biggest carmaker, and Japanese affiliate Nissan Motor Co. are committed to investing 4 billion euros ($6 billion) in the electric vehicles and batteries that they plan to begin introducing in 2012. Another 1 billion euros has been pledged by the French government to stimulate demand for the models. ‘Uncomfortable’ Range Without swapping stations, “anybody who drives more than 120 or 130 kilometers from time to time will be uncomfortable with the 160-kilometer (100-mile) range” that batteries are likely to offer, Pelata said. “We’re expanding the volume potential for the car.” The Israeli and Danish plans require power utilities to support Palo Alto-based Better Place as a front-line operator that supplies the batteries, runs charging and swapping facilities and bills customers for usage and power. Shai Agassi , the U.S. company’s founding president, acknowledged resistance from EDF in a Sept. 15 interview and said the utility shouldn’t regard him as a competitor. Both sides needed to “leave egos behind” in talks on their roles in the French rollout, Agassi said at the Frankfurt Motor Show. A spokeswoman at Paris-based EDF said the company had no comment. Better Place “would be happy to work with Renault to develop the French market,” Agassi said in an e-mailed response to Pelata’s comments. To contact the reporter on this story: Laurence Frost in Paris at lfrost4@bloomberg.net .

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Damien Hoffman: Professor David Colander Tells Congress Econ Models are Flawed

November 2, 2009

This may sound like common sense to investors and traders, but most people — including policy makers — do not readily accept the flawed nature of economic models. Thank goodness we have professor David Colander testifying to Congress in order to enlighten an otherwise dim room. Colander’s work at Middlebury College focuses on the incentives and work-product of economists. His work has become increasingly more important as economists have heavily influenced policy making in recent years. In addition to exposing a few absurd underlying economic presuppositions such as “individuals behave with rational self-interest,” Colander is helping shift incentives for professional economists away from publishing toward engaging in more useful studies. Based on these noble efforts to save us all from flawed economic models screwing up our daily lives, we are proud to award David Colander our third Medal of Honor for Excellent Service in addition to Josh Rosner and Chris Whalen … Damien Hoffman: David, what type of economics do you research and teach? David: I’m called the “Court Jester of economics.” I’m the person who says what everybody knows, but appropriate people know better than to say. I’m an economist watcher. I look at the incentives economists face, then understand and interpret economics through those incentives. So, I look at the economics of economics of economists [laughs]. Most people assume economists are searching for truth. In reality, economists are searching to achieve certain institutional goals like getting tenure, publishing articles, or doing a whole variety of things which may be related to truth. Therefore, there’s all kinds of incentive compatibility problems. What’s happened in pure macro theory I have considered a travesty for a long time and have written about it for the last 20 years. Damien: How did this travesty arise? David: The models are useful and were useful at some point, but they quickly lost their usefulness. In order to make them manageable they had to use so many assumptions that they deviated so far from reality and ultimately stopped shedding light on reality. Over time, we should have considered much more complicated non-linear dynamic models and a whole variety of new models — but economists didn’t do that. They kept dotting I’s and crossing T’s on a very restrictive equilibrium model which assumed away many of the most important elements that cause fluctuations and lead to the interesting effects that we see in the real macro economy. Damien: How did this all lead to you testifying to Congress? David: The Congressional Committee heard of that work and invited me for that reason. Damien: When you testified and said the models are too rigid in the face of unpredictable human behavior constantly changing in real time, was that too scary for legislators whose role in society is to increase order and reduce chaos? David: I hope not because that’s reality. If reality is too scary, maybe some people think we have to hide it. I don’t consider that especially scary at all. It’s just a statement of common sense and the reality of what we know. As opposed to moving on after discovering problems with the models, economists continued looking at the same model. Perhaps they did so to avoid the scary dimensions that would have all kinds of results happening. Joseph Schumpeter once said when talking about these models that, “Most of the non-linear dynamic models that I favor have multiple equilibrium.” And, he said, “You have to assume away all these multiple equilibria if economics is going to have any chance of being a science.” I consider that absolutely wrong. You have to deal with the fact that there are multiple equilibria if economics is going to have any chance of being a science. Damien: Over the past 20 years, economists have slowly altered their image as more of a hard science when in fact it’s a social science. How do we return to understanding an economist’s role in providing information instead of elevating them to a high priest of finance? David: There are many different roles for economists. There’s some roles for highly mathematical economists who analyze and study systems. There’s some roles for people who understand the institutions. The problem is that economics has forgotten those advantages and gives people incentives to work only on fairly esoteric problems rather than practical problems. That has to do with the nature of incentives in academia. Damien: How did you suggest Congress deal with these incentive issues? David: The only way to change anything within the system is to change the incentive structure of the people who are operating there. That’s a basic economic insight. The way to achieve progress isn’t through regulation and telling people what to do. The way to do it is to change the incentives they face so their incentives match what you want them to do. Currently, the incentives in academia are for publishing articles written for other economists. And all economists compete in the same dimension. My emphasis has been there should be multiple dimensions of competition — multiple types of outlets for economic research. And, they should be equally rewarded. Economists need more cross-disciplinary input from outside. I suggest having a variety of people on the reviewing committee such as physicists, mathematicians, politicians, and business people. My second suggestion was we need a lot more people with expertise in interpreting models — people who can understand the reasons for the modeling, why it was done, and the mathematics behind it. Then, those interpreters will spend time in asking, “Is this particular model going to be useful for a particular problem?” Currently, there’s no incentive for economists to ask these critical questions. Damien: If economists are not focused on the efficacy of their models, what role should economists be playing as policy makers? David: It depends on the particular economist. The training that economists get in graduate school does not prepare them to be policy makers. Instead, it prepares them to be article writers. Policy makers require a much broader sense and understanding. They need to know institutions. They need to know politics. They need to know a whole variety of issues. Some economists have that ability. Other economists don’t. A lot of economists don’t have those skills because they’re not trained in them. They have to learn them on their own. So, whether they should be policy makers or not depends upon the particular characteristics of the individual economist. Damien: How has the Federal Reserve dealt with this problem? David: I don’t think the Fed can be condemned for causing the problem or praised for avoiding it. They’re part of the whole overall system. However, they’ve told me in order to recruit the top economists, they’ve had to change their incentive structure. The only thing the young people want to do is continue publishing. I get scared when the Fed gets more worried about publications rather than policy. In the past, the people at the Fed were promoted because they wrote good policy memos and provided good advice. Currently, Fed employees are being promoted in the research division by how much they publish. Damien: David, thank you very much for all your hard work. We wish you the best in your efforts. David: Thank you very much, Damien. I am honored you considered me for this award.

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SocGen to Expand Asia Bond Staff as Hedge Funds, Central Banks Diversify

November 2, 2009

By Bob Chen Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) — Societe Generale SA plans to expand its Asia fixed-income team more than 10 percent next year as hedge funds, insurers and central banks diversify from developed markets, said Robert Reilly , co-head of the division. France’s second-largest bank by market value will have increased the team by more than 50 percent to 70 in 2009, Reilly, who moved to Hong Kong from Sydney in January to oversee the expansion, said in an Oct. 30 interview. The team will boost its research staff to seven from four, based in Hong Kong and Tokyo, in the coming months. He declined to give more specific figures on the expansion. “We’ve seen a marked growth of inquiry and transactions in Asian rates from clients who used to just sit with developed- market products,” he said. “It’s a diversification play. As the share of the world’s gross domestic product in Asia is increasing, funds need to be more focused and turned on to Asia.” Emerging economies may expand by 5.1 percent next year, compared with 1.3 percent for developed nations, the International Monetary Fund estimated last month. Central banks in Asia will raise interest rates “first,” attracting investors seeking higher yields, Reilly said. “Our recommendation is to be long Asian currencies against the euro,” he said. “There is so much pressure on the U.S. to strengthen their currency that the euro is going to weaken on the back of that. Such a strong euro is going to hamper economic recovery across Europe.” Long positions are bets that a currency will rise. Central Banks Asian central banks may be more willing to tolerate appreciation in their currencies against the euro because they have been focusing on stabilizing the dollar exchange rate to protect exports, said Reilly. Societe Generale recommended on Oct. 28 that investors buy the Korean won against the euro, predicting an 11 percent advance in the Asian currency. The Bank of Korea is likely to allow appreciation of the won to help limit import costs and damp inflation, said Patrick Bennett , a Hong Kong-based strategist at Societe Generale. The won may climb to 1,590 per euro, he predicted, without giving a timeframe. It traded at 1,750 in Seoul today. Emerging-market bond funds took in $569 million in the week ended Oct. 28, boosting inflows for the year to more than $4 billion, according to Cambridge, Massachusetts-based research firm EPFR Global . Hedge Funds “Hedge funds are getting more money under management this year and they are putting that money to work with more coverage of Asian rates and currencies,” Reilly said. “They now see the visibility, transparency and liquidity for some of the bigger Asian currencies, so they are happier to use the models they’ve got and tweak them slightly for Asian currencies.” Asian central banks hold $4.9 trillion of the world’s $7.4 trillion in global reserves and they have set up sovereign wealth funds to invest them in assets other than U.S. Treasuries. “There is a lot more interest coming from central banks in Asia to diversify out of U.S. dollar assets into Asian assets,” he said. “There is definitely inquiry from Asian sovereign wealth funds and central banks to buy Asian government debt.” SocGen has hired 150 people globally in fixed income and currencies this year, Reilly said. SocGen said in September that its investment banking arm had some 12,000 employees in more than 40 countries across Europe, the Americas and the Asia- Pacific region. Christian Carrillo , a senior interest-rate strategist, moved to SocGen in Tokyo on Sept. 28 from Deutsche Bank AG in Hong Kong. To contact the reporters on this story: Bob Chen in Hong Kong at bchen45@bloomberg.net

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Stuttgart Banker Divining Currencies Proves Best as World’s Top Forecaster

October 5, 2009

By Bo Nielsen Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) — During the most volatile period for global foreign exchange in more than 15 years, a state-owned bank in southern Germany bested the currency forecasters at the biggest banks and trading firms. Gernot Griebling , head of bond and economic research at Stuttgart-based Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg , and his team of five currency strategists beat competitors at 46 firms to become the most-accurate forecasters for the six quarters ended on June 30, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They outshone analysts at bigger firms by holding fast to such views as an early call for the dollar’s decline against the euro in the first half of 2008, even when their predictions went against the mainstream. “Your track record has nothing at all to do with the number of people working for you,” says Griebling, 48, who navigates global currency markets from the glass-and-concrete headquarters of LBBW, a firm with less than a quarter of the employees and less than a third of the assets of its German rival Deutsche Bank AG , the world’s biggest currency trader. “You have to have the courage to stick to your conviction, to deviate from the consensus view.” Griebling predicts that the dollar will trade at about $1.42 per euro until mid-2010 compared with $1.4625 today, as investor concerns over rising U.S. deficits and debt offset optimism about the prospects for an economic recovery. Ranking Method The ranking was based on quarterly predictions made at the beginning of both 2008 and 2009 for seven major exchange-rate pairs. Scotia Capital , part of Toronto-based Bank of Nova Scotia, Canada’s third-biggest bank, was second overall, followed by BofA Merrill Lynch Research in New York and Toronto-Dominion Bank’s TD Securities unit in Toronto. Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank came in fifth, while Zurich-based UBS AG , the second- biggest currency trader, was No. 22. LBBW prevailed at a time when financial turmoil and an economic slump sparked the most-violent swings for major currencies since at least 1992, as measured by JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s benchmark JPMorgan Volatility Index . The dollar plunged in the first half of 2008, only to rally later in the year as the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September froze credit markets and sent investors flocking to the safety of the greenback. The yen rallied in the second half of 2008 as traders reversed risky bets funded in the currency. In 2009, the dollar and yen started out strong against other major currencies and then weakened as central bank actions and $2 trillion spent by governments around the world on fiscal stimulus efforts helped to stabilize the global economy. ‘Spectacular Misses’ The dollar weakened 4.5 percent versus the euro in 2009 through today. The yen also fell 3.6 percent against the European currency to 131.34 yen in the period and was little changed against the dollar at 90.64. The turbulence made even the top forecasters prone to missing the mark: The average margin of error of the 10 top- ranked firms was 6.6 percent compared with 3.5 percent when Bloomberg last ranked currency strategists in 2006, a year characterized by global growth and stable financial markets. “It was a very difficult time to be a forecaster,” says Daniel Tenengauzer , head of global foreign exchange strategy at BofA Merrill Lynch in New York. “We had some spectacular successes and some spectacular misses.” Tenengauzer, 41, predicts that the dollar will weaken to $1.50 per euro by year-end and then strengthen to $1.28 by the end of 2010 as the Federal Reserve begins a series of rate increases to keep inflation in check. Discerning the Trend While no one foresaw the scale of last year’s market moves, some forecasters, such as Griebling’s team at LBBW, were able to correctly discern the broad trends that guided currencies. As 2008 began, the U.S. dollar was strengthening against the euro. The dollar was $1.4592 per euro on Jan. 1, 2008, compared with $1.4967 per euro on Nov. 23, 2007, its weakest ever. A Bloomberg survey of 43 forecasters published on Dec. 27, 2007, when the euro-dollar rate was $1.4626, showed that analysts expected the dollar to continue strengthening through September 2008. The strategists cited a narrowing deficit in the U.S. current account , which is the broadest measure of trade, and predicted that the threat of inflation would keep the Fed from cutting benchmark rates . Griebling and his team didn’t share that bullish view. The LBBW forecasters had been tracking the decline in the U.S. housing market. They predicted that the deepening slump’s impact on consumer spending and growth would be bigger than most market participants expected and would curb the dollar. In 2007, the housing downturn had already triggered $80 billion in writedowns at financial firms, a figure that would grow to more than $1.3 trillion within two years. Borne Out “We had been big bears on the U.S. economy and the dollar for a long time,” Griebling says. LBBW predicted that the dollar would strengthen against the euro in the second half of 2008 as the U.S. recession would drag down euro-zone economies. LBBW’s view was borne out: First, the dollar lost value against major currencies in the first half of 2008, with the greenback touching $1.6038 per euro in mid-July. Then, the U.S. currency surged in the latter part of the year, reaching $1.2330 per euro in October. The dollar ended 2008 at $1.3971 per euro, not far from Griebling’s year-end forecast of $1.39 per euro. What LBBW and most other currency forecasters failed to predict was the magnitude of the currency swings and the unprecedented financial turmoil that brought them about. Not Foreseen No one foresaw the severity of the deterioration in the U.S. economy and credit markets in the first half of 2008 that would lead the Fed to cut rates four times between January and April and prompt the government-brokered takeover of Bear Stearns Cos. by JPMorgan. Nor did anyone foresee Lehman’s September 2008 collapse, the U.S. bailout of insurer American International Group Inc. a month later and the rounds of global rate cuts soon afterward, all of which sent investors stampeding back into the dollar. LBBW wasn’t immune to the turmoil roiling financial markets. The bank, predicting a “substantial loss” for 2009, last week said it will shed about 2,500 jobs, or a quarter of its workforce, by 2013 and slash assets by 40 percent as part of a reorganization plan. It posted a loss of 2.1 billion euros in 2008. Some analysts were thrown off track by the roller-coaster market. Gerry Celaya , chief strategist at Redtower Asset Management , entered 2008 as the biggest dollar bull among strategists in the Bloomberg survey, forecasting a $1.30 euro- dollar rate for June 2008. Wrong Reasons Celaya, who placed third overall in the 2006 ranking, slid to number 40 on this year’s list after the U.S. economic rebound he was betting on in 2008 didn’t materialize. “We were surprised by how consistently bearish people were about the dollar in the first half of 2008,” Celaya, 44, says. “And when the dollar strength finally came, it was for all the wrong reasons.” Callum Henderson , Singapore-based global head of currency strategy at Standard Chartered Plc , came closest to predicting the dollar’s swings against the euro. In January 2008, he forecast a euro-dollar rate of $1.49 by March, making him among the biggest dollar bears in the Bloomberg survey. His $1.38 prediction for where it would stand at the end of September was among the most bullish for the U.S. currency. Past Patterns In making his forecasts, Henderson says he studied the greenback’s moves during similar periods: 1989 to 1992 and 2002 to 2004. Both times, the dollar weakened as the U.S. economy lost steam before surging against major currencies as recession damped global growth, forcing central banks to cut rates . Those patterns told him the dollar would slump initially in 2008 and then rally. “As soon as the global credit crisis happened, we knew there was going to be a dollar rally, but no one could have foreseen the speed with which it happened,” says Henderson, 44. Some market watchers searched for new ways to gauge currency relationships in late 2008 as the flight to quality sent investors pouring into the dollar. Henrik Gullberg , a strategist at Deutsche Bank in London, abandoned his standard forecasting measures and instead looked at weekly data on the amount of dollar reserves being held at the Fed by foreign central banks. Flight to Quality Gullberg discovered that from late 2008 through the beginning of 2009, the dollar tended to gain against major currencies when foreign central bank accounts at the Fed rose and vice versa, even though that hadn’t been the case historically. “We followed safe-haven flows very carefully; there was nothing else driving currency markets,” says Gullberg, 36. “The only thing that mattered was risk aversion. All other models went out the window.” The financial turmoil in late 2008 also prompted traders to get out of so-called carry-trade bets, in which they borrowed funds in yen and U.S. dollars at low rates and then invested them in currencies of countries such as Australia, where returns were higher. The Dollar Index , a gauge of the greenback’s performance against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc, had its biggest weekly gain since 1992 in October 2008. “This was a huge structural change,” says Camilla Sutton , director of currency strategy at Scotia Capital in Toronto. “It became pretty clear that the de-leveraging was impacting currencies.” Revisiting Risk The period of dollar and yen strength lasted from July 2008 to March 2009, when signs of stability in the global economy persuaded investors to venture back into stocks and bonds denominated in foreign currencies. As of mid-September, most of the top forecasters predicted that the dollar would weaken at least through the middle of next year amid rising U.S. deficits and debt, and that investors would gravitate to more attractive investment opportunities elsewhere. Sutton, 38, sees the greenback losing value as the U.S. Treasury swamps the market with bonds to fund $12.8 trillion in pledges to prop up the economy. The euro-dollar rate will return to $1.60 and the dollar will fall to 85 yen by the end of 2010, she says. Standard Chartered forecasts the dollar at $1.58 by the end of next year. Deutsche Bank’s Gullberg says the correlation between central bank reserves and the dollar has been broken as stability returned. Now, using models that look at traditional gauges such as interest rates, he foresees declines in the dollar to as low as $1.60 per euro by year-end as investors seek out higher-yielding assets in other currencies, and as the Fed resists raising rates anytime soon to ward off the threat of inflation. “Dollar strength is dependent on an aggressive Fed, and so far there has been very little sign of that,” Gullberg says. To contact the reporter on this story: Bo Nielsen in Copenhagen at bnielsen4@bloomberg.net

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Janis Bowdler: Congress Has a Responsibility to Establish Strong Consumer Financial Protection

September 30, 2009

This morning I testified before the House Financial Services Committee to support the establishment of a new Consumer Financial Protection Agency. Read the testimony here: ***** Good morning. My name is Janis Bowdler. I am the Deputy Director of the Wealth-Building Policy Project at the National Council of La Raza (NCLR). NCLR is the largest national Hispanic civil rights and advocacy organization in the United States, dedicated to improving opportunities for Hispanic Americans. I oversee our research, policy analysis, and advocacy on issues critical to building financial security in Latino communities, such as homeownership, consumer credit, auto lending, and financial counseling. During my time at NCLR, I have produced a number of publications on housing issues important to the Latino community, including American Dream to American Reality: Creating a Fair Housing System that Works for Latinos and Jeopardizing Hispanic Homeownership: Predatory Practices in the Homebuying Market. In addition, I have served as an expert witness before this committee, the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. I would like to thank Chairman Frank and Ranking Member Bachus for inviting us to share our views on the creation of the Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA). For more than two decades, NCLR has actively engaged in relevant public policy issues such as preserving and strengthening the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) and the Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act (HOEPA), supporting strong fair housing and fair lending laws, increasing access to financial services for low-income people, and promoting homeownership in the Latino community. For the last ten years, NCLR has been helping Latino families become homeowners by supporting local housing counseling agencies. The NCLR Homeownership Network (NHN), a network of 52 community-based counseling providers, works with more than 38,000 families annually and has produced more than 25,000 first-time homebuyers in its first decade. More recently, our focus has shifted to helping families keep their homes. NHN members have counseled more than 7,000 homeowners facing foreclosure. Our subsidiary, the Raza Development Fund (RDF), is the nation s largest Hispanic Community Development Financial Institution (CDFI). Since 1999, RDF has provided $400 million in financing to local development projects throughout the country. These relationships have increased NCLR s institutional knowledge of how Latinos interact with the mortgage market, their credit and capital needs, and the impact of government regulation of financial services markets. The economic consequences from the recession and historically high foreclosure rates are broadly and deeply felt by middle-class families nationwide, and communities of color have been hit particularly hard. Congress has a responsibility to plug the holes in a broken financial system that allowed millions of families to watch their savings and wealth evaporate and their debt skyrocket. In my testimony today, I will discuss the structural flaws in the credit market that led to millions of families being shuffled into ill-fitting credit products. Then I will offer NCLR s feedback on the proposed CFPA, followed by recommendations. A Broken System Most Americans share a fundamental goal of achieving economic sustainability and wealth that they can pass to their children. To do so, they rely on financial products such as mortgages, car loans, credit cards, insurance, and retirement accounts to facilitate their upward mobility. Unfortunately, structural flaws in our financial market have resulted in unequal access to those products key to economic success and the proliferation of deceptive practices. As a result, Hispanic families routinely pay more for credit, often accompanied by risky terms. Not surprisingly, they also bear a disproportionate share of the consequences, as demonstrated by declining income, wealth, and homeownership levels. Despite having the necessary authority and mandates, federal regulators failed to reign in the worst practices or advance policies that could have set families up for financial success. In fact, rollbacks on regulations and oversight paved the way for many troubling practices. Borrowers that were otherwise qualified for credit but considered hard-to-serve were often shut out of the market and forced to rely on inferior products. Issuers of subprime mortgage and credit frequently targeted minority communities as fertile ground for expansion, often as a replacement of prime products rather than a complement. Much of this lending was conducted by underregulated finance companies. In the years before the burst of the housing bubble, true market oversight was nearly impossible and gaming the system became widespread. Under such a regime, Latino borrowers and neighborhoods fared poorly. The lack of strong oversight, inability to identify disparate impact trends, and general inactivity to prevent deceptive practices have manifested real consequences for struggling families. Specifically, deficient oversight failed Latinos, other communities of color, and those of modest means in the following ways: Access to prime products was restricted, even when borrowers had good credit and high incomes. This most often occurred because short-term profits were prioritized over long-term gains. For instance, many Hispanic borrowers have unique profiles that creditors often consider hard-to-serve. 1 Despite the fact that sound underwriting models and products exist that can service consumers with these characteristics, there was little incentive to sell them in the marketplace. Such models earned issuers little profit, while subprime models had streamlined underwriting processes and were easy to line with high fees and inflated interest rates. The profitability of the models was also set in part by the price that Wall Street was willing to pay for risk. As their appetite for risk grew, expensive and risky subprime credit became readily available while affordable and low-risk prime credit was restricted. In this way, expensive and risky products drove out those that were most favorable to borrowers. As a result, Latino families have paid more for credit in most market segments. They are 30% more likely to receive high-cost mortgages, nearly twice as likely as White families to have credit card interest rates over 20%, and more likely to be charged costly markups on their auto loans. Disparate impact trends and practices were not properly identified, investigated, or acted upon. Despite clear evidence that minority borrowers were paying more for credit and being steered into subprime credit when they qualified for prime, the trends went unnoticed by federal regulators. Federal analysts claimed that not enough data was available to take enforcement action against specific lenders. However, the FederalReserve and other agencies did not exercise their authority to further investigate clear and obvious signs of trouble. For example, a recent study shows that even after controlling for percent minority, low credit scores, poverty, and median home value, the proportion of subprime loans originated at the metropolitan level correlates with racial segregation. In fact, a study conducted by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) in 2000 found that high-income Blacks living in predominately Black neighborhoods were three times more likely to receive a subprime purchase loan than low-income White borrowers. Simple investigations would have turned up enough information to justify new lending rules and guidance, and possibly enforcement action. In fact, in one private meeting with a major mortgage lender, NCLR discovered that the company s wholesale portfolio consisted almost entirely of Black clients and only offered high-cost loans. The company was clearly targeting minority communities with its subprime affiliate while catering to affluent White households with its retail operation. A similar practice has also been revealed by whistleblowers in Baltimore v. Wells Fargo, who claim that deliberate strategies were employed whereby agents would target communities of color to market subprime mortgages.4 Other research has shown that payday lenders, buy here pay here auto dealers, and other fringe financial providers tend to cluster in minority and low-income communities. Shopping for credit was nearly impossible. Many experts pointed to the growing complexity of credit products and many reports demonstrated that consumers lacked the information necessary to make sound decisions. Credit card, auto, and mortgage offers are not transparent, and borrowers are often unaware of the hidden costs in their loans. Few shopping tools exist that can help borrowers create true apples-to-apples cost comparisons. As a result, many borrowers forego shopping all together. According to one survey, only 7% of Hispanic consumers who carry a credit card balance report substantial shopping for credit, compared to 12% for similar White consumers; approximately 25% of Hispanic card users that had been denied a loan did not reapply for fear of rejection.6 In the case of mortgage and auto loans, mortgage brokers and auto dealers serve as an intermediary between the borrower and the lender. While many borrowers believe these agents are shopping for the best deal on their behalf, they are under no legal or ethical responsibility to do so. While most consumers do not proactively shop for credit, credit issuers shop aggressively for borrowers. Roughly 5.2 billion credit card solicitations were sent to U.S. households in 2004.7 Through the collection of consumer financial information, issuers essentially prescreen and select their customers. Meanwhile, federal regulators sat on major reforms for years that could have improved shopping, such as a revised Good Faith Estimate and other documents made available under the Real Estate and Settlement Procedures Act (RESPA) and reforms defining unfair and deceptive marketing practices. While some would be happy to allow market forces to continue unchecked, this regulatory philosophy has had serious consequences for families and local and national economies. For example, credit card companies made over $17 billion in penalty fees in 20068 and banks will make $38.5 billion in customer overdraft fees in 2009,9 money that could otherwise be used for household expenses or savings. Subprime foreclosures are estimated to cost states and local governments $917 million in lost property tax revenue,10 while payday lenders drain nearly $5 billion per year from the earnings of working people.11 After reaching an all-time high, the homeownership rate for native-born Latinos has declined by nearly three percentage points in just three years.12 As wealth and savings have eroded, families are left with no safety net for emergencies and an uncertain financial future. Establishing Commonsense Oversight As members of this committee seek to revamp our financial regulatory system to prevent further crisis, they must fill the gaps in oversight and accountability that left Hispanic borrowers vulnerable to steering and other unfair practices. Specifically, lawmakers must ensure that borrowers have the opportunity to be matched to credit products that truly reflect their risk of nonpayment in the most affordable terms possible. This includes improving competition and transparent shopping opportunities, promoting a viable and nonpredatory subprime market, advancing new consumer decision-making tools, and increasing product innovation to serve a wide range of credit needs. Furthermore, any reform must also establish strong market accountability. Credit markets and practices are dynamic, as are the tricks bad actors use to lure borrowers into products laced with risky and expensive features. While some argue that it is the borrower s responsibility to be on the lookout for deception, it is unreasonable to expect individual families to be able to regulate the market and, in effect, detect what the Federal Reserve did not. Lessons from the market implosion suggest that simply having good products available does not guarantee that they will reach the intended population. Bad practices often kept best practices and products at bay. The ideal regulatory structure would be able to identify and eliminate deceptive practices and enforce strong consumer protection laws. The Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA), proposed by the Obama administration and members of this committee, is the dominant policy proposal currently under consideration to address these issues. NCLR supports the creation of a new agency dedicated to consumer protection, product innovation, and equal access to financial markets. While some are pointing to recent actions by federal regulators as evidence that the necessary regulatory capacity exists, conflicts of interest prevent federal agencies from focusing expressly on the needs of consumers, especially those of color. Federal regulators missed key trends impacting Latinos and all consumers, acting only when it was too late to stop an implosion of the credit market. That said, the CFPA must be established with the authority, jurisdiction, and funding necessary to carry out to accomplish its mission. As laid out in the discussion draft of the Consumer Financial Protection Act of 2009, 13 the agency stands to improve market oversight in critical ways. Other aspects, however, still require strengthening. As this committee moves forward with its deliberations, we urge you to retain the following aspects of the discussion draft: Elevation of fair lending laws. As described above, many Latino consumers were steered into subprime loans, even when they had high incomes and good credit. Had federal regulators better enforced fair lending laws, many such tactics would have been eliminated. The discussion draft authorizes CFPA to assume responsibility for overseeing the financial industry s compliance with fair lending laws currently under the jurisdiction of the federal regulators. It also explicitly incorporates civil rights into the agency’s mission, as well as its structure, by establishing an Office of Fair Lending and Equal Opportunity. These additions elevate the enforcement of fair lending as a major priority within the agency. We urge lawmakers to go one step further in tasking CFPA with identifying trends and practices that have disparate impact on minority and underserved populations, and taking the steps necessary to curb such behavior. Strong supervision and consumer protection rule-writing ability. In the most recent draft, CFPA has been granted robust rule-writing authority that will allow it to consolidate enforcement of consumer protection laws and better protect financial services consumers. It also provides the agency with an independent Executive Director, which will allow the agency to stay objective in its assessments of the market. Moreover, rules issued by CFPA will not preempt stronger laws elsewhere, ensuring that no borrowers lose protection as a result of CFPA action. These provisions should not be weakened. In addition to these provisions, NCLR has also been working closely with members of the committee to lay the groundwork for greater access to financial advice. Timely advice and information is critical to improving the way consumers make decisions, promoting wealthbuilding and preventing cycles of debt. It is not enough for CFPA to develop passive and generic materials. Instead, they must actively promote the delivery of financial counseling from trained professionals to families that need it most. CFPA could be a strong vehicle for improving the way financial markets serve their Latino clients. However, more could be done to ensure that this new agency can fully accomplish its goals. NCLR strongly encourages Congress to strengthen or reinstate key provisions to guarantee that Hispanic consumers are well-served. Specifically: Improve access to simple, prime credit products. Ensuring that one can obtain the most favorable credit product and terms for which one qualifies should be a principal goal of federal efforts to reform financial oversight. Provisions that would have required financial institutions and entities to offer basic, straightforward car and home loans or credit cards have been removed. This leaves a gaping hole in protections for households that struggle to connect to the most favorable products for which they qualify. CFPA must be able to promote and advance simple, standard products in the marketplace. This includes fostering innovation in product development to meet the needs of underserved communities. Borrowers should be qualified against that product first and opt for other products as necessary based on niche needs or qualifications. Eliminate loopholes for those that broker financing and credit bureaus. Cut off or underserved by many retail outlets, borrowers of color or those with modest incomes often rely on finance brokers to help them find a loan. Financing offered by auto dealerships, mortgage brokers, or real estate agents are major sources of credit that demand greater attention and oversight. Many of the worst abuses in the auto and home loan markets were at the hands of brokers and dealers. As those closest to the transaction, dealers, brokers, and agents have an extraordinary responsibility and opportunity to ensure that credit deals are fair and fitting to the borrower s circumstances. Moreover, an exemption was also made for credit bureaus. While not direct lenders, the practices of credit bureaus directly impact the quantity and quality of credit that flows to consumers. For example, credit bureaus set rules around the manner in which credit scores are calculated. Also, by making their data available to certain vendors, creditors are able to shop for consumers, limiting the information and offers made available to all. Real estate agents, brokers, auto dealers, and credit bureaus should not escape greater accountability. Committee members should ensure that they are within the jurisdiction of CFPA. Reinstate community-level assessment in CFPA. CFPA must be able to assess product offerings at a community and regional level. Without such an assessment, favorable credit products may be developed but will remain unavailable in entire neighborhoods. Subprime lenders, creditors, and fringe financial providers often target entire neighborhoods based on the demographics of the area. Their efforts are often successful because those offering more favorable products are physically absent or do not cater to the needs of local residents. With CRA removed from the jurisdiction of CFPA, there is no mechanism for promoting access to credit and eliminating abuses at the community level. To be successful, CFPA must be able to assess the delivery of products at the community level, as well as the products and industries themselves. Including CRA in the CFPA will give the agency the authority necessary to make such an assessment. Conclusion Poor oversight and market inefficiencies have diverted untold sums of hard-earned income and savings away from households. Rather than waste money, a sound financial market should provide opportunities to achieve financial security. NCLR supports the committee s efforts to improve market oversight and accountability with this shared goal in mind. As one of the hardest-hit communities by the current recession, Latinos stand to benefit from an improved market where credit is more equitably distributed. We support the concept of a strong, independent CFPA that can serve as a consumer watchdog and level the playing field for those of modest means. We also look forward to working with the committee and other policymakers on further reforms of the financial oversight system and credit markets. *****

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FDIC’s Bair Says U.S. Regulators Should Move Carefully on Basel II Rules

September 30, 2009

By Rebecca Christie Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said the U.S. shouldn’t fully adopt new international banking standards if they allow some banks to hold less capital. Bair defended U.S. regulators’ reluctance to move quickly on the so-called Basel II capital accords, which she said have some “inherently flawed” parts that might allow banks to take on too much risk. Earlier this month, French officials criticized the Obama administration for seeking additional banking rules before putting previous agreements in place. “The criticism that we haven’t been moving fast enough in implementing Basel II — I wear that as a badge of honor,” Bair said in an interview yesterday. She said that if the U.S. had fully adopted the new standards, “our large banks would have had a lot less capital going into this crisis, which would have been very problematic.” Bair’s view contrasts with that of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner , who reiterated to his Group of 20 counterparts this month that the U.S. will put the Basel II rules in place. Bair said she wouldn’t support full implementation without new assurances that the rules won’t weaken U.S. banks. Geithner and President Barack Obama have used a pair of G- 20 summits to press for banks to hold more capital against potential losses after lenders worldwide suffered $1.6 trillion in losses or writedowns. European leaders agreed to sign on to the U.S. proposals, on the condition that the U.S. renew its commitment to the Basel II framework. Capital Quality Also this month, central bankers and regulators agreed to a series of Basel II updates aimed at preventing a repeat of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression that led to government-led bailouts of banks from New York-based Citigroup Inc. to Zurich-based UBS AG . The panel that oversees the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision agreed that lenders should raise the quality of their capital by including more stock, and they agreed that financial firms should introduce a leverage ratio and boost reserves in times of economic expansion. The G-20 nations agreed last week to develop specific rules on these issues by the end of next year, to be adopted by the end of 2012. The group also noted that “all major G-20 financial centers commit to have adopted the Basel II capital framework by 2011.” Bair said the U.S. shouldn’t agree to all aspects of Basel II — named after the Swiss city where the committee is based — without some sort of an agreement that bank capital requirements won’t fall below the previous standards. She cited particular concerns with the “advanced approaches” that give big banks a larger say in judging how risky their assets are. Risk Models For the biggest banks, lower requirements are “very much” an active risk, she said. As proposed, she said, the rules give banks too much flexibility and also explicitly permit some reduction in capital requirements, depending on how the banks model their risk. “Having a standardized approach in place for all banks would make some sense; Basel I does need to be updated,” Bair said. “We do not believe the advanced approaches should be implemented if they would reduce capital.” Bair discounted European officials’ concerns that some banks might be penalized because of different accounting standards. “Higher capital levels are a competitive strength, they’re not a competitive weakness,” she said. Bair supported Geithner’s push for leverage limits, which European officials have in the past resisted. She said the past year’s financial crisis has led to “fairly broad international consensus” on the need for such limits, so investors can gauge how much equity a bank holds compared with the assets on their balance sheets. “If you looked at on the markets, when everything seized up, the markets looked to the leverage ratio,” Bair said. “They thought that was a lot more meaningful than any of these risk based ratios, especially those that are being generated by the advanced accords in Europe.” To contact the reporter on this story: Rebecca Christie in Washington at rchristie4@bloomberg.net ;

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Wall Street Relies on `Too Much Mathematics,’ Finance Author Wilmott Says

September 21, 2009

By Thomas R. Keene and Shannon D. Harrington Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) — Financial markets have grown too dependent on mathematicians who use models to anticipate price moves and need to start injecting “common sense” into the equation, said Paul Wilmott , a London-based author and quantitative finance instructor. Wilmott has warned that so-called quants who use mathematics to forecast how markets will behave can overlook errors in the models, leading to flawed predictions. In a New York Times column July 28, Wilmott also said so-called high- frequency trading, where hedge funds and other firms use advanced computers to buy and sell thousands of shares a second, threatens to destabilize the market. “There is too much mathematics in this business,” Wilmott, author of “Paul Wilmott on Quantitative Finance,” said in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “I just want people to stop and think for once. People just rush into these things without any thought for what the consequences might be.” Wilmott is the co-founder of the Certificate in Quantitative Finance, a six-month program founded in 2003 that stresses the “practical” application of math in finance and admitted 195 students in January. “We explain to people how to think for themselves,” said Wilmott, who also founded the Diploma in Mathematical Finance at Oxford University, according to his Web site . “People don’t really question those assumptions enough. If the assumptions are wrong, then obviously the models and what follows can be wrong as well.” Reliance on computer models and trading using algorithmic formulas also has led to a shift in the types of people hired by Wall Street, he said. “You go back 20 years, and people running finance, they were maybe history graduates,” Wilmott said. Now, much of the industry is run by mathematicians, he said. “A lot of mathematicians do not have that common sense that the old guard had,” he said. To contact the reporter on this story: Thomas R. Keene in New York tkeene@bloomberg.net ; Shannon D. Harrington in New York at sharrington6@bloomberg.net .

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France To Use Happiness As Economic Indicator

September 14, 2009

PARIS — France plans to include happiness and well-being in its measurements of economic progress, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Monday, beckoning other countries to join in a “revolution” in the way growth is tracked after the global economic crisis. France will adapt its statistical toolbox as recommended by two Nobel economists whom Sarkozy commissioned 18 months ago to analyze new ways of measuring social progress, he said in a speech in Paris on the first anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. France – whose growth has lagged its peers in recent decades according to standard measures – will also try to convince other governments to change their economic tracking, Sarkozy said “A great revolution is waiting for us,” he said. “For years, people said that finance was a formidable creator of wealth, only to discover one day that it accumulated so many risks that the world almost plunged into chaos.” “The crisis doesn’t only make us free to imagine other models, another future, another world. It obliges us to do so,” he said. Measuring well-being would make France’s economy, famous for its short workweek and generous social benefits, look more rosy. “If leisure has no accounting value because it’s essentially full of non-market activities like sport or culture, we put productivity below human fulfillment,” Sarkozy said. Sarkozy asked U.S. economist Joseph Stiglitz, winner of the 2001 Nobel economics prize and a critic of free-market economists, and Armatya Sen of India, who won the 1998 Nobel prize for work on developing countries, to lead the analysis of growth tracking. Sen helped create the U.N. Human Development Index, a yearly welfare indicator designed to gear international policy decisions to take account of health and living standards. Their report, delivered to Sarkozy on Monday, recommends shifting the emphasis from gross domestic product, which measures economic production, to well-being and sustainability. The report recommends looking at household income, consumption and wealth rather than production in the economy as a whole for a better reflection of material living standards. Non-market activities such as house cleaning should also be tracked, it says. More prominence should be given to the distribution of income and wealth, as well as to access to education and health. Attention should also be given to whether countries are over-consuming their economic wealth and damaging the environment, the report says. In terms of GDP, the internationally recognized way of measuring an economy, French growth has lagged behind the U.S. throughout most of the past 30 years, although recent turmoil in financial markets has hit the U.S. economy harder. France appears to be weathering the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression better than most, recording a small level of growth – 0.3 percent – in the second quarter this year. But economists warn that the good news won’t last. “France seems to be resisting better on the downside but it is increasing less in the upside of the cycle which means it is collecting less wealth and it will be more difficult to rebound afterward,” said Laurence Boone, an economist with Barclays Capital in Paris.

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Smoke Clouds Business in California Foothill Communities Hit by Wildfires

September 2, 2009

By Peter J. Brennan Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) — Smoke from wildfires near Joanna Nelson’s clothing store in a foothill community north of Los Angeles has cast a shadow over her business, just as she thought the recession was lifting. “Since Wednesday of last week, business has been zero, nonexistent,” Nelson, 39, said of her shop, Frockx , in the city of La Cañada Flintridge . “Everyone’s left town.” The so-called Station fire has displaced residents of 4,300 homes since Aug. 26, according to the U.S. Forest Service. As the blaze in the Angeles National Forest enters its second week, a lack of customers, along with the blanket of ashes, has hurt businesses along Foothill Boulevard in La Cañada Flintridge. At R.R. “Pat” Harris Plumbing, a provider of repairs and home filtration systems, business is off by about 25 percent in the past week, said Garry Ackerman, 71, who runs the supply store. With access to residential areas restricted by police, “We cannot get up to jobs,” he said. Customers also don’t want workers in their homes while they’re concentrating on the fire, Ackerman said. “Business has been bad and this adds to it.” Residents who have been evacuated may not be able to return until after the weekend, which ends with the Labor Day holiday in the U.S., the Forest Service said. Most of the business owners in the area have homes that have been threatened, said Melinda Clarke, 42, marketing director of Extremebootcamp , an exercise club that has military- style training featuring trail runs in the mountains. Sending Customers Away Clarke’s home in neighboring La Crescenta is covered with two inches of ash, she said. Residents should avoid physical activity in areas such as La Cañada Flintridge and La Crescenta where fine particles of smoke are in the air, the South Coast Air Quality Management District said in an advisory posted yesterday to its Web site. Air quality ranges from unhealthy to hazardous. Extremebootcamp has an orientation for a new outdoor session scheduled for the weekend, Clarke said. “We’re hoping it will be over by Saturday,” Clarke said. “We will delay it if we have to.” The Station fire has scorched about 128,000 acres and is 22 percent contained, according to the California Department of Forestry . It may not be fully under control for two weeks, said Bob Brady, a spokesman for the Forest Service. To date the fire has destroyed 62 structures, including homes, barns and other facilities, he said. ‘Still Selling Homes’ Business goes on for real estate agent Ruth McNevin, 63, who worked on closing a deal yesterday at Re/Max Tri-City Realty on Foothill. She said she’s been through both fires and recessions in 22 years in the business. “We’re still selling homes,” McNevin said. “We’ve got a lot of repressed demand.” The blaze is burning underbrush, which reduces the risk of larger fires in future years, said McNevin, who said she evacuated from her home in La Crescenta on Aug. 29 and didn’t expect to move back for a day or two. Nelson, who has owned Frockx for three years, said she’s been hoping the recession would end and was looking forward to the Christmas holiday selling season. Now the fire has damaged back-to-school sales, and it’s threatening to ruin the outdoor fashion show she plans in back of the store on Sept. 26. “I hope the fire is over by then,” Nelson said. “I cannot have ashes falling on my models.” To contact the reporter on this story: Peter J. Brennan in Los Angeles at pbrennan3@bloomberg.net

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Dan Dorfman: Go-Go Garz Gambling on a Go-Go Market

August 28, 2009

With more than 2,500 hedge funds going belly up over the past three years, in the process decimating investors with many billions of dollars in losses, the last thing the investment community needs — or wants to hear about — is another hedge fund. Indicative of this disenchantment, investors have been dumping them like crazy, evident by a whopping $26.2 billion worth of hedge fund investments that were redeemed in July alone. Further, with these funds still holding huge assets (more than $1.5 trillion) in the face of lots of worries about the vigor of next year’s widely anticipated economic recovery, the redemption process hardly seems over. Stock market guru Elaine Garzarelli, or Go-Go Garz as she’s known in some Wall Street quarters, doesn’t go along with the pessimists. Nor does she buy the idea that the investor’s once hot romance with hedge funds is on the rocks. In fact, she’s so convinced it isn’t that come next month, she will unveil her own hedge fund, the Sector Analysis Fund, whose goal is to generate positive returns in a bear market. Initial investment is $500,000. Back in the 1980s and early 1990s, Garzarelli wowed Wall Street with a series of uncanny on-the-money market calls, predominantly bullish, which is what earned her the nickname Go-Go. Wall Street at the time hung on here every word. She is currently skipper of Garzarelli Capital, a New York advisory firm which doles out market advice to more than 100 institutional investors with assets in excess of $1 trillion. That Go-Go reference continues to be quite appropriate as Garzarelli is once again bullish as the dickens. Though reluctant to talk about her hedge fund, Garzarelli had no reluctance to discuss her latest thinking and the advice she’s dispelling to her institutional clients. All told, Garzarelli tracks 13 indicators, such as economic activity, valuations and monetary policy. As of now, 12 of them are flashing bullish readings. The lone holdout is the sentiment indicator, which shows too many bullish investment advisors. For Garzarelli to be bullish, more than 65% of her indicators must throw off favorable readings. Currently, 83% of them are doing just that, which means, Garzarelli tells me, “I’m very bullish.” Much of her sunny posture is also linked to an outbreak of economic thunder. For example, the Index of Leading Economic Indicators has risen 4 consecutive months, suggesting, Garzarelli says, that the recession has probably ended. Some other factors supporting this view, she notes, are rising home sales, low inflation and a sharp rise in consumer net worth due a combination of climbing home and equity prices. Yet another plus: the economy is picking up around the world. Garzarelli notes 9 countries reported second-quarter GDP growth, 5 of them double-digit. To Garzarelli, it all adds to a peppier U.S. economy, with her models suggesting 3% GDP growth in the second half of 2009 and more than a 4% rise in all of 2010. Her outlook for next year’s earnings: up 25% or more. It all suggests, she says, that fair value for the S&P 500 is 1,300, versus its current level of 1028. As far as stock prices go, Garzarelli sees them ballooning about 25% over the next 6 to 12 months. Importantly, she sees minimal risk from current levels even though the market has ballooned more than 50% from its March lows. At worst, she sees periodic sideways corrections of say 4% to 7% as stock prices steadily work their way higher. “The risk-reward here highly favors the investor,” she says. Where are the best places to put your equity money to work? Garzarelli strongly favors exchange-traded funds that focus on 4 industry sectors that cater to areas she expects will outpace her projected 4% GDP growth next year. They are: Financials (ETF symbol, XLF): This group, down about 60% from its all-time high, versus a 35% decline in the S&P 500, is expected to recover nicely due to increased business and consumer spending. Industrials (XLI): Down around 41% from its all-time high, this sector is seen reaping the benefits from the recovery in global economies, solid infrastructure spending abroad and exports to Asian and other developing economies. Homebuilding (XHB): Off 65% from its peak, this group is recovering due to record low mortgage rates, a growing 20-29 population, which is creating robust new home formations, favorable housing affordability trends and rising consumer confidence. Semiconductors (USD): This ETF is down 71% from its all-time high, but the industry has a lot going for it. North American semi equipment orders have increased 43% and the New York Federal Reserve tech survey shows multiple months of gains. In addition, tech is expected to be the fastest growing part of the 2010 economy, aided by strong foreign economic and export demand. Our Go-Go would-be hedge fund manager also has high hopes for the consumer discretionary sector (XLY) because of the replacement demand cycle and new household formations. Likewise, the higher savings rate in July suggests more available funds to purchase goods. Yet other plusses are gains in consumer confidence and consumer wealth (up 6% since the housing and stock market bottoms). Go- Garz’s wrapup: “It’s just the wrong time to be a wimp.” Write to Dan Dorfman at Dandordan@aol.com

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Cash For Clunkers: Obama Pushes Senate To Refuel Funding

August 3, 2009

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration appealed to the Senate on Monday to bail out the cash for clunkers rebate program, arguing it has already made striking gains in fuel efficiency and is a “wildly popular” economic boost.

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Nissan’s Ghosn Says Electric Cars Will Be 10% of Demand, Unveils New Model

August 2, 2009

By Kae Inoue and Kiyori Ueno Aug. 2 (Bloomberg) — Nissan Motor Co. Chief Executive Officer Carlos Ghosn said electric cars will make up at least 10 percent of global vehicle demand by 2020, depending on conditions

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Hyundai Is Cheap to Gartmore as Investors Ferret Out Bargains Among BRICs

July 29, 2009

By Michael Patterson and Alexander Ragir July 29 (Bloomberg) — Emerging-market shoppers are on their biggest spending spree in 4 1/2 years, driving up shares of consumer-goods makers and retailers and sending money managers in search of remaining bargains. Hyundai Motor Co. , the Seoul-based maker of Elantra Yuedong sedans in China, is cheap trading at 12 times next year’s profit estimates, less than half the level of Germany’s Daimler AG, Gartmore Investment Management Ltd

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Hyundai Is Cheap to Gartmore as Investors Ferret Out Bargains Among BRICs

July 29, 2009

By Michael Patterson and Alexander Ragir July 29 (Bloomberg) — Emerging-market shoppers are on their biggest spending spree in 4 1/2 years, driving up shares of consumer-goods makers and retailers and sending money managers in search of remaining bargains. Hyundai Motor Co

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Gerald Sindell: GM to Buy Back All Pontiac Azteks for Cash!

July 20, 2009

A few weeks ago I posted an open letter to GM CEO Fritz Henderson on the first day of GM’s entering into bankruptcy protection, offering my concern that Mr. Henderson’s reliance on great GM design to save the company might be a problem since GM had put so much ugly tin on America’s roads. I also noted that GM’s culture needed to change, and this was their last chance to get it right

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