november

By Andrew M. Harris March 16 (Bloomberg) — David Coleman Headley, who is accused of helping to plan the November 2008 Mumbai terror attacks and a never-executed assault on a Danish newspaper that printed cartoons of the Islamic prophet Muhammad, will change his plea of innocent to a plea of guilty before a U.S. judge in Chicago on March 18, his attorney said in a telephone interview today. To contact the reporter on this story: Andrew M Harris in Chicago at aharris16@bloomberg.net

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Mumbai Terror Plot Suspect Headley Will Change Plea to Guilty, Lawyer Says

Eurozone trade surplus drops in November

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Eurozone trade surplus drops in November

Video: Raines Says Democrats May Pass Obama’s Health Bill Alone

February 26, 2010

Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) — John Raines, deputy director of political risk at Exclusive Analysis Ltd., talks about President Barack Obama’s health-care plan. Raines also discusses senators’ concern about the budget deficit ahead of the November elections. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Andrea Catherwood in London.

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Business Investment to Help Strengthen U.S. Economy in 2010, Survey Shows

February 22, 2010

By Timothy R. Homan Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) — Corporate investment will contribute to stronger growth in the U.S. and the economy will start to add jobs early this year, a survey of business economists showed. Spending on equipment and software by companies is expected to increase 7.2 percent this year, up from the November survey’s projection for a 4.2 percent gain, according to the median estimate of 48 economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics. Purchases will rise even more next year, jumping 8.6 percent. Corporate spending will help drive economic growth of 3.1 percent this year and 3.2 percent in 2011, economists said. That will help make up for weakness in consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, as the nation pulls out of the worst recession since the 1930s. “Business investment is growing faster than the rest of the economy,” said Richard DeKaser , chief economist at Woodley Park Research in Washington, who helped conduct an analysis of the NABE survey. “We find inventories to be quite lean now, so businesses are going to be restocking throughout the course of this year and next.” Payroll increases will average 50,000 a month from January through March. Economists in the survey also said stock prices will increase through 2011. The U.S. economy expanded 5.7 percent in the last three months of 2009, the most in six years, the Commerce Department said Jan. 29. Business investment increased at a 13 percent pace, the most since 2006, according to the report. A survey by Bloomberg News earlier this month showed economists anticipate 3 percent growth this year and next, according to the median. January Employment Payrolls unexpectedly dropped by 20,000 in January, while the unemployment rate fell to 9.7 percent from 10 percent the previous month, according to Labor Department figures released on Feb. 5. The U.S. has lost 8.4 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. A weak labor market will restrain consumer spending. Purchases are forecast to increase 2.2 percent this year before gaining 2.8 percent in 2011. Personal spending grew at a 2 percent annual pace from October through December of last year. Economists surveyed anticipate the Federal Reserve will begin to raise the federal funds rate in September. Fed policy makers last month said economic conditions are likely to warrant “exceptionally low” levels of the rate “for an extended period.” S&P 500 Forecast The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will probably end the year at 1,200 and finish 2011 at 1,325, economists said. The report said no forecasters predicted a decline in stock market values during the next two years. Seventy percent of respondents said they expect banks will ease lending restrictions this year, the report showed. The remaining 30 percent said credit will remain tight due to “regulatory guidance, capital pressures and a general climate of risk aversion.” The survey was conducted from Jan. 22 through Feb. 4. To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net

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Ron Paul Tops U.S. Presidential Straw Poll at Conservative Conference

February 21, 2010

By Greg Stohr Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) — Representative Ron Paul of Texas won a straw poll for the 2012 Republican U.S. presidential nomination conducted among activists at the Conservative Action Political Conference . Paul, a former Libertarian Party presidential candidate, received 31 percent of the vote, followed by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 22 percent, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin with 7 percent and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty with 6 percent. Less than 25 percent of the more than 10,000 people attending the conference voted, according to poll results released by the event’s organizers. Students accounted for 48 percent of those voting. Young people were among Paul’s supporters when he sought the 2008 Republican nomination, with more than 200 Students for Ron Paul chapters formed at U.S. colleges. The conference featured speeches by several potential 2012 Republican presidential candidates, including Pawlenty, Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia. Gingrich yesterday predicted that Republicans will win control of both the House and the Senate in the November election and then the White House in 2012. He attacked proposed tax increases, saying “any tax increase is a job-killing measure and should be defeated” and described the Democratic leadership as a “secular, socialist machine.” Pawlenty Speech In his speech, Pawlenty said that if conservatives take power, “we need to do what we say we’re going to do.” Conservatives “need to go to Washington, D.C., and walk the walk.” Romney said President Barack Obama focused on overhauling the U.S. health-care system to the detriment of the economy. Obama didn’t know that “the number one cause of failure in the private sector is lack of focus, and that the first rule of turning around any troubled enterprise is focus, focus, focus,” Romney told the conference. “His energy should have been focused on fixing the economy and creating jobs. He failed to focus, and so he failed.” Palin, the 2008 Republican vice presidential candidate, didn’t attend. To contact the reporter on this story: Greg Stohr in Washington at gstohr@bloomberg.net .

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Video: Attorney Klein Calls Tiger Woods’s Media Event `Selfish’: Video

February 19, 2010

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) — Jeffrey Klein, a partner at Weil Gotshal & Manges LLP, talks with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker and Deirdre Bolton about Tiger Woods’s first public appearance since his November accident and admission of infidelity. Woods, the world’s top-ranked golfer who has been on an indefinite break from the sport, is scheduled to meet with a small, hand-picked group today at 11:00 a.m. ET in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, in a televised appearance. No questions will be allowed. Klein speaks from Dallas. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Obama Puts Emphasis on Economy in Nevada, Colorado: Video

February 19, 2010

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama is emphasizing his administration’s actions on the economy during two-state Western state swing that comes as he’s trying to bolster the chances of Democrats in November’s elections. Bloomberg’s Hans Nichols reports. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Dubai debt fears resurface

February 16, 2010

a Dubai default this week shot to the level it was at the peak of the city-state’s debt crisis in November, before neighbouring Abu Dhabi pumped in emergency bailout funds. A major cause for concern is the lack of clear information since the sheikdom

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German business failures climb 7% in November

February 10, 2010

German business failures climb 7% in November

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Video: U.S. Stocks Retreat on Concerns About Europe Finances: Video

February 8, 2010

Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks slid and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed below 10,000 for the first time since November amid concern that deteriorating European government finances will derail the economic recovery. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Salem Communications Announces Two New General Managers

February 8, 2010

CAMARILLO, CA–(Marketwire – February 8, 2010) – Salem Communications ( NASDAQ : SALM ) today announced the appointment of two new general managers. Jeff Reisman has been named General Manager for its Chicago cluster, AM 1160 WYLL and AM 560 WIND. For the past 5 years Jeff has served as General Sales Manager of WIND and in November of 2008 was promoted to Director of Sales for the Chicago cluster.

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Canada’s GDP increases 0.4% in November

January 31, 2010

Canada’s GDP increases 0.4% in November

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Toyota Plunges as Expanded 5.3 Million Recall of Vehicles Tarnishes Image

January 27, 2010

By Alan Ohnsman and Mike Ramsey Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — Toyota Motor Corp. , the world’s largest carmaker, fell in Tokyo for a fifth straight day as it expanded recalls by more than 1 million vehicles, adding to concerns its reputation for quality may be permanently tarnished. The shares dropped as much as 4.7 percent to 3,530 yen and traded at 3,620 yen as of 10:21 a.m. local time, bringing their decline to 14 percent since Jan. 21, when Toyota announced a recall of 2.3 million vehicles after finding a pedal flaw linked to unintended acceleration. Toyota’s “reputation for long-term quality is finished,” Maryann Keller , senior adviser at Casesa Shapiro Group LLC in New York, said yesterday in an interview. “People aren’t going to buy Toyotas, period. It doesn’t matter which model. What’s happened is sufficient to keep people out of the stores.” The carmaker said late yesterday it’s expanding a record 4.3 million-vehicle recall announced in November to include 1.09 million additional U.S. vehicles, to fix accelerator pedals at risk of being trapped by floor mats. Losing its reputation for quality would undercut Toyota’s decades-long campaign to promote reliability and safety that helped it become No. 2 in U.S. sales. Models Added The company said Jan. 26 it would suspend the U.S. sale and production of eight models involved in the Jan. 21 recall. Those models account for more than half its deliveries in the country, including its top-selling Camry and Corolla cars. “We don’t know how long the sales halt will last, which makes the stock unattractive,” said Hiroichi Nishi , an equities manager at Nikko Cordial Securities Inc. in Tokyo. Models that were added yesterday to the November recall are 2008-2010 Highlander sport-utility vehicles; 2009-2010 Corolla compact cars; 2009-2010 Venza wagons; and the 2009-2010 Toyota Matrix hatchback. General Motors Co.’s 2009-2010 Pontiac Vibe, a version of the Matrix, is also to be recalled, said Martha Voss , a Toyota spokeswoman. Toyota’s American depositary receipts fell the most in more than a year yesterday, and GM added incentives to woo owners of the U.S. autos being recalled to fix the pedal flaw. “This is going to have severe ramifications for Toyota,” said John Wolkonowicz , an analyst at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “The Teflon seems to have evaporated.” Quality Concerns Two Toyota recalls in three months compounded concern that quality may have slipped after a decade of North American expansion. The company’s 1,460 U.S. Toyota and Lexus dealers and hundreds of North American suppliers are awaiting word that engineers have found a solution for the pedal defect. While Toyota City, Japan-based Toyota is aware that its reputation for quality may be endangered, “this is a customer safety issue,” said Irv Miller , U.S. group vice president for corporate communications. Miller said he wasn’t aware whether the decision to halt production was made by President Akio Toyoda . “He is certainly aware of the issue,” Miller said. Along with Camry and Corolla, Toyota’s recall covers the Avalon sedan and Matrix hatchback; RAV4, Highlander and Sequoia SUVs; and Tundra pickups. Also included is the Pontiac Vibe, a version of the Matrix built at a joint Toyota-GM plant until last year. Weekly Fallout Global Insight estimated that Toyota would lose 20,000 vehicle sales a week as long as it ceases selling and producing the eight models. U.S. sales of the affected Toyota vehicles totaled 998,744 in 2009, according to researcher Autodata Corp. of Woodcliff Lake, New Jersey. Wolkonowicz said the models accounted for 70 percent of Toyota brand sales and about 56 percent of overall U.S. sales when Lexus is included. Stopping sales of some models will cut Toyota’s offerings as U.S. consumers begin returning to dealer lots after last year’s slump. Toyota posted a 32 percent gain in December U.S. deliveries, topping the industry’s 15 percent increase, and will report January totals on Feb. 2. On Feb. 4, Toyota will release earnings for its fiscal third quarter ended Dec. 31. Wolkonowicz, the Global Insight analyst, said the fallout for Toyota may not end soon. The U.S. was Toyota’s largest market through 2007, contributing half or more of global operating income. Toyota trails only GM in U.S. sales and surpassed the Detroit-based automaker’s global total in 2008. ‘Biggest Crisis’ “This is the biggest crisis in the auto industry since the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler,” he said. “Toyota is not going to be able to contain this problem in a short period of time. It’s going to drag on and linger, unlike the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler last summer.” The automaker retained the top spot in June in J.D. Power & Associates’ survey of initial quality and topped Consumer Reports magazine’s annual survey of automotive brand perceptions this month. Still, Toyoda already was under pressure to improve quality since he took the helm in June, and the latest setbacks probably will add to the strain as competitors including South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Co. narrow Toyota’s lead. Toyota continues to investigate the pedal-related flaw reported last week and doesn’t yet have figures on any related accidents, injuries or fatalities, said Brian Lyons , a spokesman. The company is aware of at least five deaths related to the floor mat-related recall from November, he said. Pedal Fixes Last week’s recall involved a potential flaw in pedal parts made by CTS Corp. that could, “in rare instances, mechanically stick in a depressed position or return slowly to the idle position,” according to Toyota. Toyota said in a statement late yesterday that pedals using a revised design “are now in full production at CTS to support Toyota’s needs.” The company is also working with CTS to test modifications to existing pedals that will be available “as quickly as possible.” Toyota accounts for about 3 percent of annual sales at Elkhart, Indiana-based CTS, according to the company. Vehicles with pedal parts from Toyota-affiliated Denso Corp. weren’t included in last week’s recall. “This is a very rare occurrence, incidents of sudden acceleration, but because Toyota’s had made multiple actions related to it, the perceived image is they don’t have a handle on it,” said Jake Fisher , senior auto engineer for Consumer Reports. “They’ve been trying to be proactive, but that’s probably not what consumers will draw from this.” Consumer Response Bill Visnic, senior editor at consumer researcher Edmunds.com, said shoppers may not differentiate between the Toyota autos on the recall list with those still available on showroom floors. “It’s definitely going to put a damper on the entire atmosphere around a dealership,” he said. “This is a real test of the strength of the brand.” At Santa Monica Toyota in suburban Los Angeles, General Manager Billy Rinker said he received about 15 customer calls early yesterday about the recall. “I don’t think they lost” the reputation for quality, Rinker said of Toyota. “Toyota wants to be as perfect as possible, so they are fixing it.” News of the recalls was “scary,” said Prius owner Caroline Schkolnick, 51, of Beverly Hills, California, who was having her car serviced in Santa Monica. She reported no problems with her hybrid, which was covered by the November floor-mat recall, and said she isn’t worried about the pedals. “There were mistakes and I respect them for fixing them,” Schkolnick said. Toyota may be “overreacting” in suspending sales and production, said Mickey Anderson, president of Performance Auto Group in Omaha, Nebraska, which owns three Toyota stores and two Lexus outlets. “Probably, that’s the right thing to do,” Anderson said. “While this will be a burden for Toyota and the dealers, it is absolutely the most proactive way to take care of the customers.” To contact the reporters on this story: Alan Ohnsman in Los Angeles at aohnsman@bloomberg.net ; Mike Ramsey in Southfield, Michigan, at mramsey6@bloomberg.net

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Toyota Falls as Quality Image May Be `Finished’ on Halt of Sales, Output

January 27, 2010

By Alan Ohnsman and Mike Ramsey Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — Toyota Motor Corp. fell in Tokyo trading, headed for a fifth day of declines amid concerns that a widening vehicle recall and a U.S. sales halt for its top- selling models may have permanently tarnished its reputation. The shares dropped as much as 4.7 percent to 3,530 yen and traded at 3,555 yen as of 9:19 a.m. local time, bringing their decline to 15 percent since Jan. 21, when Toyota announced a recall of 2.3 million vehicles after finding a pedal flaw linked to unintended acceleration. Toyota’s “reputation for long-term quality is finished,” Maryann Keller , senior adviser at Casesa Shapiro Group LLC in New York, said yesterday in an interview. “People aren’t going to buy Toyotas, period. It doesn’t matter which model. What’s happened is sufficient to keep people out of the stores.” The company said yesterday it would expand a U.S. vehicle recall to Europe, a day after announcing it would suspend the sale and production of models that account for more than half its U.S. deliveries, including Camry and Corolla cars. Losing its reputation for quality would undercut a decades-long campaign to promote reliability and safety that helped Toyota become the world’s largest carmaker and No. 2 in U.S. sales. “We don’t know how long the sales halt will last, which makes the stock unattractive,” said Hiroichi Nishi , an equities manager at Nikko Cordial Securities Inc. in Tokyo. Toyota’s American depositary receipts fell the most in more than a year yesterday, and General Motors Co. added incentives to woo owners of the U.S. autos being recalled to fix the pedal flaw. ‘Severe Ramifications’ U.S. sales of eight models are being suspended after last week’s recall, and five North American plants are being idled, Toyota said Jan. 26. That followed a 4.3 million-unit recall in 2009 for a related problem tied to floor mats. “This is going to have severe ramifications for Toyota,” said John Wolkonowicz , an analyst at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “The Teflon seems to have evaporated.” Two Toyota recalls in three months compounded concern that quality may have slipped after a decade of North American expansion. The company’s 1,460 U.S. Toyota and Lexus dealers and hundreds of North American suppliers are awaiting word that engineers have found a solution for the pedal defect. While Toyota City, Japan-based Toyota is aware that its reputation for quality may be endangered, “this is a customer safety issue,” said Irv Miller , U.S. group vice president for corporate communications. Weekly Fallout Miller said he wasn’t aware whether the decision to halt production was made by President Akio Toyoda . “He is certainly aware of the issue,” Miller said. Along with Camry and Corolla, Toyota’s recall covers the Avalon sedan and Matrix hatchback; RAV4, Highlander and Sequoia SUVs; and Tundra pickups. Also included is the Pontiac Vibe, a version of the Matrix built at a joint Toyota-GM plant until last year. Global Insight estimated that Toyota would lose 20,000 vehicle sales a week as long as it ceases selling and producing the eight models. U.S. sales of the affected Toyota vehicles totaled 998,744 in 2009, according to researcher Autodata Corp. of Woodcliff Lake, New Jersey. Wolkonowicz said the models accounted for 70 percent of Toyota brand sales and about 56 percent of overall U.S. sales when Lexus is included. ‘Short-Term’ Sales Stopping sales of some models will cut Toyota’s offerings as U.S. consumers begin returning to dealer lots after last year’s slump. Toyota posted a 32 percent gain in December U.S. deliveries, topping the industry’s 15 percent increase, and will report January totals on Feb. 2. On Feb. 4, Toyota will release earnings for its fiscal third quarter ended Dec. 31. Wolkonowicz, the Global Insight analyst, said the fallout for Toyota may not end soon. The U.S. was Toyota’s largest market through 2007, contributing half or more of global operating income. Toyota trails only GM in U.S. sales and surpassed the Detroit-based automaker’s global total in 2008. “This is the biggest crisis in the auto industry since the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler,” he said. “Toyota is not going to be able to contain this problem in a short period of time. It’s going to drag on and linger, unlike the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler last summer.” Toyota Probe The automaker retained the top spot in June in J.D. Power & Associates’ survey of initial quality and topped Consumer Reports magazine’s annual survey of automotive brand perceptions this month. Still, Toyoda already was under pressure to improve quality since he took the helm in June, and the latest setbacks probably will add to the strain as competitors including South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Co. narrow Toyota’s lead. Toyota continues to investigate the pedal-related flaw reported last week and doesn’t yet have figures on any related accidents, injuries or fatalities, said Brian Lyons , a spokesman. The company is aware of at least five deaths related to the floor mat-related recall from November, he said. Last week’s recall involved a potential flaw in pedal parts made by CTS Corp. that could, “in rare instances, mechanically stick in a depressed position or return slowly to the idle position,” according to Toyota. Toyota said in a statement late yesterday that pedals using a revised design “are now in full production at CTS to support Toyota’s needs.” The company is also working with CTS to test modifications to existing pedals that will be available “as quickly as possible.” Consumer Response Toyota accounts for about 3 percent of annual sales at Elkhart, Indiana-based CTS, according to the company. Vehicles with pedal parts from Toyota-affiliated Denso Corp. weren’t included in last week’s recall. “This is a very rare occurrence, incidents of sudden acceleration, but because Toyota’s had made multiple actions related to it, the perceived image is they don’t have a handle on it,” said Jake Fisher , senior auto engineer for Consumer Reports. “They’ve been trying to be proactive, but that’s probably not what consumers will draw from this.” Bill Visnic, senior editor at consumer researcher Edmunds.com, said shoppers may not differentiate between the Toyota autos on the recall list with those still available on showroom floors. “It’s definitely going to put a damper on the entire atmosphere around a dealership,” he said. “This is a real test of the strength of the brand.” ‘Perfect as Possible’ At Santa Monica Toyota in suburban Los Angeles, General Manager Billy Rinker said he received about 15 customer calls early yesterday about the recall. “I don’t think they lost” the reputation for quality, Rinker said of Toyota. “Toyota wants to be as perfect as possible, so they are fixing it.” News of the recalls was “scary,” said Prius owner Caroline Schkolnick, 51, of Beverly Hills, California, who was having her car serviced in Santa Monica. She reported no problems with her hybrid, which was covered by the November floor-mat recall, and said she isn’t worried about the pedals. “There were mistakes and I respect them for fixing them,” Schkolnick said. Toyota may be “overreacting” in suspending sales and production, said Mickey Anderson, president of Performance Auto Group in Omaha, Nebraska, which owns three Toyota stores and two Lexus outlets. “Probably, that’s the right thing to do,” Anderson said. “While this will be a burden for Toyota and the dealers, it is absolutely the most proactive way to take care of the customers.” To contact the reporters on this story: Alan Ohnsman in Los Angeles at aohnsman@bloomberg.net ; Mike Ramsey in Southfield, Michigan, at mramsey6@bloomberg.net

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Home Prices, U.S. Confidence Climb Further From Abyss as Economy Rebounds

January 26, 2010

By Bob Willis and Courtney Schlisserman Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) — Home prices and consumer confidence in the U.S. climbed further from the depths of the recession, indicating the economy is taking more steps toward recovery. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index increased 0.2 percent in November, the sixth consecutive gain, the group said today in New York. The Conference Board’s confidence gauge rose this month to the highest level in more than a year. Home values since May have regained about a 10th of the record 32 percent plunge over the past three years, showing the industry that precipitated the worst economic slump since the 1930s has much ground to make up. A 10 percent jobless rate means Americans will be slow to regain the comfort needed to restore spending to levels seen during the last expansion. “We are starting to come back, but it’s going to be slow,” said Stephen Stanley , chief economist at RBS Securities Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut. “The labor situation is the linchpin for practically everything.” Stocks rose for a second day as the gain in consumer confidence topped the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 0.4 percent to 1,100.95 at 12:18 p.m. in New York. Treasury securities were little changed. The S&P/Case-Shiller index was down 5.3 percent from November 2008, more than anticipated and the smallest year-over- year decline in two years. A government tax credit for first-time home buyers due to expire in November helped boost home sales, contributing to higher prices in some markets. A projected increase in foreclosures this year as unemployment is slow to drop is a reminder that property values may not firm much more. ‘Bottoming Out’ “We’re seeing what looks to be a bottoming out in prices,” said Michelle Meyer , an economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. “There is a risk we see further downside, given the large amount of foreclosures set to enter the market and the uncertainty of the effects of the homebuyer tax credit on prices.” Economists surveyed anticipated prices would drop 5 percent in the 12 months to November, based on the median estimate of 27 projections. Estimates ranged from declines of 4.5 percent to 6 percent. From the April 2006 peak, the 20-city index adjusted for seasonal variations was down 29 percent. Compared with the prior month, 14 of the 20 areas covered showed an increase on a seasonally adjusted basis while six had a decline. The biggest month-to-month gain was in Phoenix, which increased 1.6 percent. New York showed the biggest drop at 0.9 percent. Broad Improvement All of the 20 cities in the S&P/Case-Shiller index showed a smaller year-over-year decline in November. Four cities posted year-over-year gains in prices, led by Dallas, which saw a 1.4 percent rise from November 2008. San Francisco, Denver and San Diego rounded out the gainers. A report today from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed home prices rose 0.7 percent nationally in November from the prior month. The index tracks only loans that conform to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac limits. The Conference Board’s confidence index increased to 55.9, higher than the median estimate of economists surveyed, from a revised 53.6 in December, the New York-based private research group said today. The figure reached a record low of 25.3 in February of last year and averaged 97.1 during the six-year expansion that ended in December 2007. Confidence, Jobs “It’s a slight improvement, and given where consumer confidence has been the last four, five months, a slight improvement is a nice takeaway,” said Mark Vitner , a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “It appears labor-market conditions are not getting any worse, and that’s a plus.” Economists forecast confidence would rise to 53.5 from a previously reported 52.9 for December, according to the median of 67 projections in a Bloomberg survey. The figures come as Federal Reserve officials meet today and tomorrow to discuss interest-rate policy. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and fellow central bankers will keep the target rate for overnight bank lending from zero to 0.25 percent to help nurture the recovery, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The U.S. lost 85,000 jobs last month after a revised 4,000 gain in November that was the first increase since the recession began in December 2007, according to Labor Department data released earlier this month. Credit Card Use American Express Co. , the biggest U.S. credit-card issuer by purchases, said Jan. 21 that fourth-quarter profit more than doubled as consumer spending increased. “We still face the challenge of high unemployment levels, depressed real estate values and shrunken household balance sheets, but the overall economy and our company are in stronger shape than they were a year ago,” Kenneth I. Chenault , chief executive officer of New York-based AmEx, said in a news release. “While the economic recovery now under way is likely to be modest, we expect it to continue,” Chenault said. To contact the reporters on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net ; Courtney Schlisserman in Washington cschlisserman@bloomberg.net

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Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Gain a Sixth Month, Case-Shiller Index Shows

January 26, 2010

By Bob Willis Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) — Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose in November for the sixth consecutive month, signaling the industry that precipitated the worst recession since the 1930s is stabilizing. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index increased 0.2 percent from the prior month on a seasonally adjusted basis, after a 0.3 percent rise in October, the group said today in New York. The gauge was down 5.3 percent from November 2008, exceeding expectations and the smallest year-over-year decline in two years. A government tax credit for first-time home buyers due to expire in November helped boost home sales, contributing to higher prices in some markets. A projected increase in foreclosures this year as unemployment is slow to drop is a reminder that property values may not firm much more. “We’re seeing what looks to be a bottoming out in prices,” said Michelle Meyer , an economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. “There is a risk we see further downside, given the large amount of foreclosures set to enter the market and the uncertainty of the effects of the homebuyer tax credit on prices.” Another report showed consumer confidence this month increased more than anticipated as the job market improved. The Conference Board’s index increased to 55.9, the highest level since September 2008, the New York-based private research group said. Stocks Fall Stocks reversed earlier declines following the confidence report. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 0.1 percent to 1,098.21 at 10:17 a.m. in New York. Treasury securities rose. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News anticipated prices would drop 5 percent in the 12 months to November, based on the median estimate of 27 projections. Estimates ranged from declines of 4.5 percent to 6 percent. From the July 2006 peak, the 20-city index was down 29 percent. Compared with the prior month, 14 of the 20 areas covered showed an increase on a seasonally adjusted basis while six had a decline. The biggest month-to-month gain was in Phoenix, which increased 1.6 percent. New York showed the biggest drop at 0.9 percent. California Rebound San Francisco posted the second-biggest increase, at 1.5 percent, followed by 1 percent gains each in Los Angeles and San Diego, and a 0.9 percent gain in Portland, Oregon. “Some of the boom-to-bust markets in California are starting to see home prices appreciate as demand returns,” said Meyer. All of the 20 cities in the S&P/Case-Shiller index showed a smaller year-over-year decline in November. Four cities posted year-over-year gains in prices, led by Dallas, which saw a 1.4 percent gain from November 2008. San Francisco, Denver and San Diego rounded out the gainers. A report today from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed home prices rose 0.7 percent nationally in November from the prior month. The index tracks only loans that conform to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac limits. As home values firmed and stocks climbed in the second and third quarters of 2009, households recovered almost $5 trillion of the record $17.5 trillion in wealth lost since 2007, showing there remained much ground to make up. The monthly price increases have diminished since the index climbed an average 1 percent in July and August, indicating foreclosures may again be hurting property values. Record Foreclosures A record 3 million U.S. homes will be repossessed by lenders this year as high unemployment and depressed home values leave borrowers unable to make mortgage payments or sell, according to a RealtyTrac Inc. forecast on Jan. 14. Last year there were 2.82 million foreclosures, the most since RealtyTrac began compiling data in 2005. KB Home , the Los Angeles-based homebuilder that sells to first-time buyers, is among homebuilders struggling. The company Jan. 12 reported a pretax loss of $91 million on declining revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter that ended Nov. 30. KB Home is “not going to make money in the first quarter” and plans to “restore profitability” in the second half of 2010, Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Mezger said Jan. 12 in a conference call with analysts and investors. The end of Federal Reserve purchases of mortgage-backed securities aimed at keeping borrowing costs low represents another challenge for the industry. The program is scheduled to expire by March 31. Fed Meeting Policy makers meet today and tomorrow to discuss the direction of the benchmark lending rate between banks. The emergency programs were being wound down “in light of ongoing improvements in the functioning of financial markets,” central bankers said in their Dec. 16 statement. Karl Case , a former economist professor at Wellesley College, and Robert Shiller , chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and a professor at Yale University, created the home-price index based on research from the 1980s. To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

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Eurozone industrial orders rise 1.6% in November

January 24, 2010

Eurozone industrial orders rise 1.6% in November

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India Puts Airports, National Airline on Alert Over Islamist Hijack Threat

January 22, 2010

By James Rupert and Subramaniam Sharma Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) — India put its airports and national airline on alert after intelligence reports that Islamic militants might try to hijack a plane flying to or from one of its South Asian neighbors. The Home Ministry ordered stepped-up security, spokesman Onkar Kedia said by telephone in New Delhi today. Passengers will face additional searches immediately before they board planes, the Indian Express reported earlier , adding that extra sky marshals are like to travel on all regional Air India flights. Militants linked to al-Qaeda or the Pakistan-based Lashkar- e-Taiba guerrilla group planned in the near future to seize an Air India plane flying between any of eight South Asian countries, the Express quoted unnamed intelligence sources as saying. Lashkar is accused of conducting the November 2008 attack on Mumbai hotels and the city’s main train station, which left 166 people dead. On Dec. 24, 1999, Islamic militants hijacked an Indian Airlines jet flying from Kathmandu, Nepal, to New Delhi. They forced the plane to fly to Kandahar, Afghanistan, and after eight days freed the 155 passengers in exchange for the release of three militants from Indian jails. Security at airports globally was increased last month after a Nigerian man linked to al-Qaeda tried to bomb a Northwest Airlines flight from Amsterdam to Detroit. Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab , 23, was charged in the U.S. with smuggling explosives onto the aircraft. India has already stepped up security in New Delhi, with armed commandos deployed on the streets, ahead of the Jan. 26 Republic Day celebrations. To contact the reporter on this story: James Rupert in New Delhi at jrupert3@bloomberg.net .

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Brown’s Win In Mass. Could Actually Hurt Wall Street Most: Reuters

January 20, 2010

The result ends the Democratic supermajority in the Senate and leaves key parts of the Obama agenda in deep trouble. But the biggest loser just might be Wall Street. Desperate Democrats may see anti-bank populism as a way of holding power as the November midterm elections approach.

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Housing Starts in U.S. Probably Stalled After Bad Weather, Foreclosures

January 20, 2010

By Bob Willis Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) — Housing starts were probably little changed in December as rising foreclosures and inclement weather kept builders at bay, economists said before a report today. Ground may have been broken on 572,000 houses at an annual rate compared with 574,000 in November, according to the median estimate of 70 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Permits, a sign of future construction, may also have dropped. A projected record 3 million foreclosures this year will probably swell the number of properties on the market, hurting builders by making existing houses more attractive as prices fall. At the same time, the government’s extension and expansion of the tax credit for first-time buyers will probably help underpin demand in the first half of the year. “There is risk of a further decline in housing coming from the dynamic of elevated foreclosures,” said Julia Coronado , a senior economist at BNP Paribas in New York. “Like the rest of the economy, there are a lot of speed bumps in the road.” The Commerce Department’s report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Projections ranged from 495,000 to 630,000. The housing report may also show building permits fell 1.5 percent to a 580,000 annual pace, according to the survey. A report at the same time from the Labor Department may confirm inflation slowed in December. Wholesale costs were unchanged last month after jumping 1.8 percent in November, according to the survey median. Excluding food and energy, the producer-price index may have climbed 0.1 percent following a 0.5 percent November increase. Projected Foreclosures Rising foreclosures are adding to inventory and may discourage builders. A record 3 million U.S. homes will be repossessed by lenders this year as high unemployment and depressed home values leave borrowers unable to make their house payment or sell, according to a RealtyTrac Inc. forecast on Jan. 14. Last year there were 2.82 million foreclosures, the most since RealtyTrac began compiling data in 2005. Builder shares lagged the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index last year. The S&P Supercomposite Homebuilding Index gained 18 percent in 2009 compared with a 23 percent rise in the S&P 500. President Barack Obama on Nov. 6 extended an $8,000 first- time buyer credit that was due to expire at the end of the month and expanded it to include current homeowners. The extension covers closings through June as long as contracts are signed by the end of April. Still, the measure pull sales forward, depressing demand in the second half of the year. Sales of new houses dropped 11 percent in November, the month the government’s tax credit was due to expire. A jump in purchases of existing homes pushed total sales up to a 6.895 million annual pace, the most since March 2007. Bad Weather Weather may have also played a role in depressing December housing starts, economists said. Last month was the 14th coldest December and 11th wettest in 115 years of record keeping, according to the National Climatic Data Center, in Asheville, North Carolina. The Southeast, which makes up part of the biggest of four regions for starts, experienced the wettest December ever. While housing starts have climbed since reaching a record low in April, they were still 75 percent below their peak of 2.27 million, at an annual rate, reached in January 2006. Confidence among U.S. homebuilders unexpectedly dropped in January to the lowest level since June, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo said yesterday. Job Losses Any sustained recovery will require gains in employment, economists said. The U.S. has lost 7.2 million jobs since the recession began, and economists surveyed by Bloomberg early this month forecast joblessness will average 10 percent this year. KB Home , the Los Angeles-based homebuilder that sells to first-time buyers, is among homebuilders struggling. The company last week reported a pretax loss of $91 million on declining revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter that ended Nov. 30. KB Home’s orders rose 12 percent to 1,446 from 1,296 in the year-earlier quarter, while completed sales dropped 22 percent to 3,042, according to the report. The average price declined 12 percent to $203,400. KB Home is “not going to make money in the first quarter” and plans to “restore profitability” in the second half of 2010, Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Mezger said Jan. 12 in a conference call with analysts and investors. To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington bwillis@bloomberg.net

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Republican Brown Wins Massachusetts Senate Race, Imperiling Health Reform

January 19, 2010

By Heidi Przybyla and John McCormick Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) — Republican Scott Brown won the Massachusetts Senate seat of the late Democrat Edward Kennedy, a political upset that imperils health-care legislation in Congress and sends a warning shot to Democrats ahead of November’s elections. Brown was running ahead of Democratic state Attorney General Martha Coakley by about 5 percentage points with roughly 80 percent of the state’s precincts reporting. Independent candidate Joseph Kennedy, no relation to the late senator, was running a distant third. Brown, 50, a previously little-known state senator, cast himself as an independent voice who would help thwart President Barack Obama’s health-care plan and keep a check on Democrats in Congress, particularly on tax-increase proposals. Brown’s victory increases his party’s Senate numbers to 41, which would enable Republicans to stall votes in the chamber on an overhaul of the U.S. health-care system, Obama’s top legislative goal. His victory, in a state Obama won by 26 percentage points in the 2008 election, is the third recent high-profile Democratic loss. In November, the president’s party lost the governor’s mansions in New Jersey and Virginia. It follows decisions by five House Democrats since November to retire instead of face potentially tough races later this year. To contact the reporters on this story: Heidi Przybyla in Washington at hprzybyla@blooomberg.net ; Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net

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Aetna Temporarily Cancels Insurance Policy Of Woman Who Underpaid By $64

January 19, 2010

[Stacey] Owens said she found out that her coverage had been canceled only after a doctor’s bill was rejected by Aetna in November.

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Post Office Holidays 2010: MLK Day And 9 Other Federal Holidays Impacting Mail Delivery This Year

January 18, 2010

Martin Luther King Day is one of 10 official 2010 post office holidays, meaning mail will not be delivered today and post offices will be closed. The United States Postal Service runs on the Federal Holiday schedule . Here is the complete list of post office holidays 2010: Friday, January 1 – New Year’s Day Monday, January 18 – Martin Luther King Jr’s Birthday Monday, February 15 – Washington’s Birthday (President’s Day) Monday, May 31 – Memorial Day Sunday, July 4 – Independence Day Monday, September 6 – Labor Day Monday, October 11 – Columbus Day Wednesday, November 11 – Veterans Day Thursday, November 25 – Thanksgiving Day Saturday, December 25 – Christmas Day

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New Zealand Home Prices Fall for First Time in Six Months as Sales Decline

January 17, 2010

By Tracy Withers Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) — New Zealand house prices fell for the first time in six months in December as the number of properties sold declined for a third month. Prices fell 0.9 percent from November, the Auckland-based Real Estate Institute of New Zealand Inc. said today in an e- mailed statement, citing an index. The number of properties sold dropped to 4,957 from 6,056 in November. New Zealand lenders have been raising interest rates on fixed-term home loans as their funding costs increase, curbing demand for property. Mortgage rates are rising even as Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard keeps the official cash rate at a record-low 2.5 percent. House sales slumped in 2008 amid a deepening recession, and only began rising on an annual basis in March last year. Sales in December increased 15 percent from a year earlier. The median time to sell a house was unchanged from November at 33 days, and fell from 45 days in December last year. To contact the reporter on this story: Tracy Withers in Wellington at twithers@bloomberg.net .

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Eurozone trade surplus falls in November

January 17, 2010

Eurozone trade surplus falls in November

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South Africa’s gold production slips 4.9% in November

January 17, 2010

South Africa’s gold production slips 4.9% in November

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Video: Consumer Prices in U.S. Rose 0.1% in December: Video

January 15, 2010

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) — The consumer-price index rose 0.1 percent, less than forecast, following a 0.4 percent gain in November, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Bloomberg’s Betty Liu reports. (Source: Bloomberg)

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U.S. Jobless Claims Rise; Four-Week Average Hits Lowest Since August 2008

January 14, 2010

By Courtney Schlisserman Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) — The average number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits over the past four weeks dropped to the lowest level since August 2008, indicating companies are making fewer job cuts as the economy improves. Jobless claims increased in the latest week. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 440,750 last week from 449,750, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Weekly jobless claims , which are more volatile, rose a more-than-anticipated 11,000 in the week ended Jan. 9, to 444,000. Factories are ratcheting up production and companies are slowing the pace of firings as the economy rebounds from the worst recession in seven decades. A decline in employment last month indicates companies are hesitant to add to payrolls until demand accelerates. A separate report today showed retail sales unexpectedly dropped in December. “The most critical issue is the labor market, and the trend in jobless claims has been down,” said James O’Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global Ltd. in New York. It “implies the labor market is improving,” he said. Stock-index futures erased earlier gains after the reports. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.2 percent to 1,139.4 at 8:55 a.m. in New York. Sales at U.S. retailers dropped 0.3 percent last month after a 1.8 percent jump in November that was larger than initially estimated, Commerce Department figures showed. Sales were projected to increase 0.5 percent in December after a previously reported 1.3 percent November gain, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Continuing Claims The number of people receiving unemployment insurance declined to the lowest level since Jan. 10, 2009, and those receiving extended benefits decreased. Economists forecast claims would increase to 437,000 from a previously reported 434,000 for the prior week, according to the median of 43 projections in a Bloomberg survey. Estimates ranged from 400,000 to 450,000. Claims have fallen 34 percent since reaching a 26-year high of 674,000 in the week ended March 28. Continuing claims dropped by 211,000 to 4.6 million in the week ended Jan. 2. The continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended benefits under federal programs. Extended Benefits Today’s report showed the number of people who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting extended payments decreased by about 135,587 to 5.3 million in the week ended Dec. 26. Thirty of the states and territories where workers are eligible to receive the government’s latest six-week extension have begun to report that data, a Labor Department spokesman said. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, fell to 3.5 percent in the week ended Jan. 2 from 3.6 percent, today’s report showed. Thirty-seven states and territories reported an increase in claims, while 16 had a decrease. These data are reported with a one-week lag. The U.S. unexpectedly lost 85,000 jobs in December after a revision for November showed the first gain in almost two years, according to Labor Department data released Jan. 9. The unemployment rate held at 10 percent, near the 26-year high of 10.1 percent reached in October. The report also showed workers were unemployed for 29.1 weeks on average, the most since records began in 1948. Cuts at AOL AOL Inc., the Internet company spun off from Time Warner Inc. last month, said Jan. 11 it started notifying workers of involuntary job cuts after 1,100 accepted buyout packages. Spokeswoman Tricia Primrose said many of the affected employees would leave the company Jan. 13. AOL had said in November it planned to cut its 7,000-person staff by about one-third. United Parcel Service Inc. , the world’s largest package- delivery company, said Jan. 8 it plans to cut 1,800 jobs as it shrinks management at a U.S. unit. The changes reflect the Atlanta-based company’s attempts to halt seven straight quarters of volume declines in its small-package unit, its largest division. Some companies are considering adding positions. Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc., based in White Plains, New York, said Jan. 12 it plans to add about 6,000 jobs in the U.S. this year. “After a year of hunkering down and cutting costs, companies are driving their top line again,” Frits van Paasschen, Starwood’s president and chief executive officer, said in a statement. “By definition, this means getting back on the road, which not only benefits their own business, but also helps spur job creation.” To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington at cschlisserma@bloomberg.net

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U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Drop in Sign Economy May Be Slow to Recover

January 14, 2010

By Bob Willis Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) — Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly fell in December following a bigger gain than previously estimated the prior month, highlighting the risk that the largest part of the economy will be slow to recover. The 0.3 percent decrease came after a 1.8 percent jump the prior month, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Other reports showed inventories rose more than forecast in November and jobless claims climbed last week. A jobless rate projected to average 10 percent this year, tight credit and depressed home values indicate halting improvement in consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy. The inventory data signal growth was boosted by manufacturing last quarter, an improvement that will require stronger demand in order to be sustained in coming months. “We are going to have positive but moderate growth” in consumer spending in the first half of this year,” said Zach Pandl , an economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. “We are gradually emerging from recession.” Stocks fluctuated between gains and losses as shares in technology companies advanced ahead of an earnings report by Intel Corp., helping to offset losses among retailers. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 0.1 percent to 1,145.01 at 11:26 a.m. in New York. The S&P Retailing Supercomposite was down 0.8 percent. Some of the decreases in sales last month followed gains in November, indicating problems with adjusting the data for seasonal issues may have played a role in the see-saw pattern. The mid-December blizzard in parts of the eastern U.S. may also have contributed to the decrease. ‘Underlying Trend’ “You have to look at the two months together, given the challenges of seasonally adjusting this time of year,” said James O’Sullivan , chief economist at MF Global Ltd. in New York. “Through the volatility, the underlying trend in consumer spending has been accelerating.” Americans will spend more in 2010 than previously estimated, economists surveyed this month by Bloomberg said. Purchases will grow 2 percent this year, the first gain since 2007 and up from a December estimate of 1.8 percent, according to the median forecast of 60 economists polled. The U.S. economy, the world’s largest, will expand 2.7 percent, the best performance in four years, the survey showed. Economists forecast consumer spending will grow at a 2 percent annual rate in the current quarter and pick up to a 2.3 percent pace by the last three months of the year, the survey showed. Purchases climbed 3.5 percent per quarter on average in the decade prior to the recession that began in December 2007. Inventories, Sales Inventories increased 0.4 percent in November for a second month, while sales jumped 2 percent, the Commerce Department also said today. Economists forecast stockpiles would climb 0.3 percent, according to the median survey estimate. Even after adding more goods to shelves and warehouses, companies had 1.28 months ’ worth of merchandise on hand to meet demand, the least since July 2008. “It’s a sign of confidence,” said Michael Gregory , a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “As sales begin to slowly grind stronger, I think we’ll see even more of an inventory gain.” More Americans than anticipated filed claims for jobless benefits last week, a report from the Labor Department also showed. First-time applications totaled 444,000, up 11,000 from the prior week. The average number over the last four weeks dropped to the lowest level since August 2008, indicating companies are making fewer job cuts. Unexpected Drop Retail sales were projected to rise 0.5 percent after an originally reported 1.3 percent gain in November, according to the median estimate of 80 economists in a separate Bloomberg survey. Forecasts ranged from no change to a gain of 1.2 percent. Purchases excluding autos dropped 0.2 percent in December compared with the 0.2 percent gain anticipated by the median forecast of economists surveyed. Auto sales fell 0.8 percent after a 1.2 percent November gain. Industry data showed an increase in purchases. Ford Motor Co . and Toyota Motor Corp. were among automakers that reported December sales gains. The seasonally adjusted sales rate was 11.2 million vehicles, up from 10.9 million in November, according to industry figures released last week. Excluding autos, gasoline and building materials — the retail group the government uses to calculate gross domestic product figures for consumer spending — sales fell 0.3 percent after a 0.8 percent increase. The government uses data from other sources to calculate the contribution from the three categories excluded. Payrolls Decrease While companies are firing fewer workers than they did in early 2009, they’ve been slow to hire. A Labor Department report last week showed the economy lost 85,000 jobs in December after adding 4,000 a month earlier. Against that backdrop, companies are resorting to discounting. A surge of online shopping and bargain-hunting after an East Coast snowstorm snarled sales the weekend before Christmas lifted December comparable-store sales 3 percent, the biggest gain since April 2008, Retail Metrics said Jan. 7. “We believe consumers will remain focused on value as the economy improves,” Carol Meyrowitz , chief executive officer of TJX Cos., said Jan. 7 after the operator of T.J. Maxx and other low-priced apparel retailers reported December sales were up 21 percent over the same period a year earlier. To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

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British trade gap narrows in November

January 13, 2010

British trade gap narrows in November

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US trade deficit hits $36.4b in November

January 13, 2010

US trade deficit hits $36.4b in November

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Britain’s industrial production drops 6% in November

January 13, 2010

Britain’s industrial production drops 6% in November

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Indian factory output jumps 11.7% in November

January 13, 2010

Indian factory output jumps 11.7% in November

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Minutes of Board discount rate meetings, November 23 through December 14, 2009

January 12, 2010

Minutes of Board discount rate meetings, November 23 through December 14, 2009

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India’s factory output jumps 11.7% in November

January 12, 2010

India’s factory output jumps 11.7% in November

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Australian Home-Loan Approvals Fall More Than Estimates After Rates Rise

January 11, 2010

By Jacob Greber Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) — Australian home-loan approvals fell in November by the most in 18 months as central bank Governor Glenn Stevens led the world in raising borrowing costs. The number of loans granted to build or buy houses and apartments for owner-occupiers slumped 5.6 percent to 59,516 from October, when they fell a revised 1.9 percent, the statistics bureau said in Sydney today. The median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 0.5 percent drop. The currency dropped on speculation approvals may slide further after Stevens boosted the benchmark interest rate in December for an unprecedented third straight month and the government slashed grants to first-time buyers of new homes to A$7,000 ($6,500) from A$21,000. Traders predict Stevens will boost the rate by another quarter point to 4 percent by March. “We’re going to see continued weakness in these numbers throughout the first half of the year,” said Helen Kevans , an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Sydney. The decline “will be welcomed by the Reserve Bank — they are wary of a housing bubble.” The Australian dollar fell to 92.71 U.S. cents at 12:07 p.m. in Sydney from 92.86 cents just before the report was released. The two-year government bond yield shed 1 basis point to 4.48 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. First-home buyers accounted for 22.1 percent of dwellings that were financed in November, down from 26 percent in October, the statistics bureau said today. Interest Rates Stevens and his board increased Australia’s overnight cash rate target in three moves from October to December to 3.75 percent from 3 percent as a rebound in exports to China from companies including BHP Billiton Ltd. helped fuel the biggest three-month surge in hiring in three years. Employers added 99,500 new jobs in the three months through November, cutting the jobless rate to 5.7 percent from 5.8 percent in October. Employers added another 10,000 jobs last month, according to the median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of a Jan. 14 government report. Jobs advertised in newspapers and on the Internet jumped 6 percent in December, the biggest increase in 2 1/2 years, according to an Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. report published yesterday. Mortgage Repayments Investors are betting there is a 58 percent chance of an interest-rate increase at the central bank’s next meeting on Feb. 2, according to Bloomberg calculations based on interbank futures on the Sydney Futures Exchange at 11:27 a.m. Chances of a quarter-point move in March are at 100 percent. Prior to today’s report, the bet on a quarter-point move next month stood at 64 percent. Last year’s interest-rate increases added about A$150 to monthly repayments on an average A$300,000 home loan, and may prompt consumers to trim spending that surged in the first half of the year after Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s government distributed more than A$20 billion in cash handouts to households. An index of consumer confidence dropped 3.8 percent last month, led by waning sentiment among households with mortgages, according to a report by Westpac Banking Corp. Demand for mortgages surged in the first half of last year amid record purchases from first-time buyers after Treasurer Wayne Swan tripled to A$21,000 a grant to buyers of new homes, and doubled to A$14,000 payments for those purchasing existing dwellings. In May last year, Swan extended the increases through to the end of September, when they were partially reduced. The payments were cut to their original level of A$7,000 on Jan. 1 The value of lending to owner-occupiers declined 2.9 percent in November. The value of loans to investors who plan to rent or resell homes advanced 2.1 percent. The total value of loans fell 1.6 percent to A$22.8 billion, today’s report showed. To contact the reporter for this story: Jacob Greber in Sydney at jgreber@bloomberg.net

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French trade deficit hits $7.6b in November

January 10, 2010

French trade deficit hits $7.6b in November

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French trade deficit hits $7.6b in November

January 10, 2010

French trade deficit hits $7.6b in November

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EU’s unemployment reaches its highest in November

January 10, 2010

EU’s unemployment reaches its highest in November

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EU’s unemployment reaches its highest in November

January 10, 2010

EU’s unemployment reaches its highest in November

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Manhattan Home Sales Rebound in 4Q (MalaysiaNews.net)

January 9, 2010

Factory Orders Jump 1.1% in November (AP) Home sales in Manhattan rebounded at the end of the year, but experts predict a weak recovery for the new year because the number of pending deals declined. …

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Video: Westpac’s Shugg Predicted Loss of 80,000 Dec. Jobs: Video

January 8, 2010

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) — James Shugg, senior economist at Westpac Banking Corp., talks with Bloomberg’s Scarlet Fu about the December U.S. employment report. They spoke before the Labor Department reported the U.S. lost 85,000 jobs in December. A revised November report showed a gain of 4,000 jobs.(Source: Bloomberg)

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Europe’s Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Jumps to 10%, Highest Since 1998

January 8, 2010

By Simone Meier Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) — Europe’s unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to the highest in more than 11 years in November as companies cut costs in the wake of the worst recession in more than six decades. Unemployment in the euro area rose to 10 percent from a revised 9.9 percent in October, the European Union statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That’s the highest since August 1998. Economists forecast a November rate of 9.9 percent after the 9.8 percent initially reported for October, a Bloomberg survey showed. The euro-area economy expanded 0.4 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, according to a separate report. European companies are cutting jobs and paring wages to shore up earnings battered by the global slump. While economic confidence has risen to a level last seen before the 2008 demise of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. , a surge in energy costs and a stronger euro threaten to damp the recovery. “We’ll probably see further gains in unemployment over the coming months, with the jobless rate peaking at 10.7 percent in the second half,” said Juergen Michels , chief euro-region economist at Citigroup Inc. in London. “That’s obviously bad news to consumers , which will be hurt by job cuts, lower wage growth and rising energy costs.” The euro pared its gains against the dollar after the data and traded at $1.4317 at 10:31 a.m. in London, up less than 0.1 percent on the day. The yield on the German 10-year benchmark bond rose 0.2 basis point to 3.38 percent. Consumer Spending The euro-area economy returned to growth in the third quarter after governments spent billions of euros on stimulus programs to bolster spending. Still, corporate investment fell 0.8 percent in the quarter and consumer spending dropped 0.1 percent, today’s data showed. The European Central Bank last month kept borrowing costs at a record low and said it will exit some unconventional measures as the recovery progresses. In Germany, Europe’s largest economy, unemployment unexpectedly declined in December, keeping the jobless rate at 8.1 percent, the Federal Labor Agency said on Dec. 5. German Chancellor Angela Merkel ’s Cabinet extended the so-called short- term work program for a year from this month, allowing companies to continue tapping federal aid to help pay wages. As many as 140,000 people were on short-term work last month, the Federal Labor Agency said on Jan. 5. Industrial Orders With a 94 percent surge in oil prices over the past year threatening to crimp earnings and the euro’s 5.2 percent ascent against the dollar over the same period making exports less competitive, companies may remain reluctant to add workers. European industrial orders dropped more than economists forecast in October from the previous month. Siemens AG, Europe’s largest engineering company, last month posted its first quarterly loss in a year and forecast a drop in 2010 earnings. The Munich-based company cut its global workforce by 3.6 percent in 2009 to weather a slump in orders. Paris-based Accor SA, Europe’s largest hotel company, eliminated 1,000 jobs in France last year. ThyssenKrupp AG , Germany’s largest steelmaker, said in November that it plans to cut about 20,000 jobs. With the euro-area jobless rate forecast by the EU to reach 10.7 percent this year, consumers may keep a rein on spending . European retail sales posted the biggest drop in 13 months in November, the statistics office said yesterday. ‘Significant Doubt’ “Significant doubt and uncertainties remain about the future strength of consumer spending,” said Howard Archer , chief European economist at IHS Global Insight in London. “Businesses may well remain cautious in their employment and investment plans for some time to come.” At 19.4 percent, Spain had the highest unemployment rate in November among the 16 countries using the euro, today’s report showed. Austria and the Netherlands had the lowest jobless rates with 5.5 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively. The number of unemployed people rose by 102,000 to 15.7 million from October, the statistics office said. Euro-region gross domestic product declined 4 percent from a year earlier in the third quarter, instead of a previously reported drop of 4.1 percent, today’s data showed. To contact the reporter on this story: Simone Meier in Dublin at smeier@bloombert.net

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Germany’s exports rise for 3rd month in November

January 8, 2010

Germany’s exports rise for 3rd month in November

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Hungarian jobless rate hits 10.5% in November

January 7, 2010

Hungarian jobless rate hits 10.5% in November

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Brazil’s factory output drops 0.2% in November

January 7, 2010

Brazil’s factory output drops 0.2% in November

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Australian retail sales climb 1.4% in November

January 7, 2010

Australian retail sales climb 1.4% in November

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Australian retail sales climb 1.4% in November

January 7, 2010

Australian retail sales climb 1.4% in November

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Commercial Real Estate Loan Prices Rise in November (PR Newswire via Yahoo! Finance)

January 6, 2010

The aggregate value of Commercial Real Estate loans priced by DebtX that collateralizes CMBS increased to 77.7% as of November 30, 2009 from 76.9% as of October 30, 2009. The aggregate value is down from 81.3% as of January 30, 2009.

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Pending Home Sales in U.S. Probably Declined for First Time in 10 Months

January 5, 2010

By Bob Willis Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) — The number of contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes probably fell in November for the first time in 10 months as Americans waited for a tax credit to be extended, economists said before a report today. The index of signed purchase agreements, or pending home sales, dropped 2 percent after October’s 3.7 percent increase, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 35 economists before today’s release from the National Association of Realtors. Factory orders rose for a third straight month in November, a separate report from the Commerce Department may show. The incentive for first-time homebuyers, originally scheduled to expire at the end of the month and subsequently extended through April and broadened, is stabilizing sales. The credit and cheaper properties are helping sustain the recovery in housing that’s emerged from the worst slump since the 1930s. “Buyers wouldn’t have expected to close in time to take advantage of the credit,” said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. “Sales will improve again as we move through the first part of the year, as buyers take advantage of the tax credit and improved affordability. The underlying trend is one of improvement.” The National Association of Realtors is due to report the figures at 10 a.m. in Washington today. Estimates range from a drop of 12 percent to a 3.9 percent increase. The Commerce Department report at the same time may show orders placed with U.S. factories rose 0.5 percent in November after a 0.6 percent rise, according to the median estimate of 58 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Leading Indicator Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator because they track contract signings. The Realtors’ existing- home sales report tallies closings, which typically occur a month or two later. The Realtors group started publishing the index in March 2005, and data go back to January 2001. Transactions had to close by Nov. 30 for buyers to qualify for the tax credit, which explains why resales continued to rise through November. The extension allows closings to occur by the end of June as long as contracts are signed by the end of April. Sales of existing homes in November rose 7.4 percent to a 6.54 million annual rate, the highest level in almost three years, the National Association of Realtors said on Dec. 22. Foreclosures accounted for 33 percent of all sales, the group said. President Barack Obama on Nov. 6 extended the $8,000 first- time buyer credit and expanded it to include current homeowners in a bid to boost demand. Still, the measure may have pulled sales forward and could result in fewer purchases in coming months. Home Prices The recession has helped make homes more affordable. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of average home prices in 20 U.S. cities was down 29 percent in October from its peak in July 2006. The measure fell 7.3 percent from October 2008. Federal Reserve officials are doing their part to sustain the housing rebound by pledging to keep their benchmark interest rate near zero for an “extended period,” according to their latest policy statement. Even so, mortgage rates have begun rising. The average rate on a 30-year fixed home loans rose to 5.14 percent for the week ended Dec. 31, the fourth consecutive gain after reaching a record low of 4.71 percent in the week ended Dec. 3, according to mortgage finance company Freddie Mac. Builders are still struggling even as many forecast a rebound this year. Hovnanian Enterprises Inc ., New Jersey’s largest homebuilder, said Dec. 16 its fourth-quarter loss narrowed as more buyers signed purchase contracts. ‘Year of Transition’ “2010 will be a year of transition for us,” Chief Executive Officer Ara Hovnanian said on a conference call. “We have started down a path that we believe will eventually return us to profitability.” Stocks of homebuilders surged last year as the economy recovered from the worst recession in seven decades. The Standard & Poor’s Homebuilder Supercomposite Index gained 66 percent from March 9 through the end of 2009. The S&P 500 Index rose 65 percent since reaching a 12-year low that day. An absence of job gains remains a hurdle for housing. The economy has lost 7.2 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. The unemployment rate may exceed 10 percent through the first half of 2010, a Bloomberg survey showed. To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington bwillis@bloomberg.net .

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