october

Shasta County real estate up one month, down the next (The Record Searchlight)

November 25, 2009

Up one month, down the next.It’s been a theme for Shasta County’s real estate market in 2009, and it continued in October.After a month that saw a 13 percent increase in transactions, home sales declined – albeit slightly – last month, DataQuick Information Systems reported this week.There were 164 closed escrows of new and used homes in Shasta County, a 1.8 percent dip from September , when …

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Crib Recall List: Cribs Affected By November 2009 Recall, Checklist And Complaints

November 24, 2009

For those curious if their crib is affected by the massive cribs recall today — the largest in U.S. history — here’s a checklist to find out. Directly from the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) Web site , the following cribs are affected: -Stork Craft drop-side cribs and Stork Craft drop-side cribs with the Fisher-Price logo -Cribs with plastic trigger and one-hand-system drop-side hardware -Stork Craft cribs with manufacturing and distribution dates between January 1993 and October 2009 -Stork Craft cribs with the Fisher-Price logo that have manufacturing dates between October 1997 and December 2004 Retailers in the U.S. and Canada selling the cribs include BJ’s Wholesale Club, J.C. Penney, Kmart, Meijer, Sears, USA Baby, and Wal-Mart stores and online at Amazon.com, Babiesrus.com, Costco.com, Target.com, and Walmart.com from January 1993 through October 2009. The cribs cost between $100 and $400. Complaints prompting the recall included: -67 incidents in the United States, 43 in Canada -20 falls -15 entrapments -10 incidents of drop-side detachment -4 suffocations (all fatalities in U.S.) Those who have cribs involved in the recall can find “[T]he manufacture date, model number, crib name, country of origin, and the firm’s name, address, and contact information located on the assembly instruction sheet attached to the mattress support board” for identification and can contact Stork Craft with this information via phone or its Web site. Customers are urged to be patient contacting Stork Craft due to capacity overload at the moment.

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Singapore’s tourism activity drops in October

November 24, 2009

Singapore’s tourism activity drops in October

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Individuals Inundate Bear-Market Funds From JPMorgan to Pimco During 2009

November 23, 2009

By Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) — JPMorgan Chase & Co . and Pacific Investment Management Co. are inundated with money from individuals attempting to mimic the performance of hedge funds speculating that the stock-market rally is over. So-called bear-market and long-short mutual funds, designed to protect against falling stock prices, attracted a record $10 billion this year through October, more than double the previous high in 2006, according to Morningstar Inc. Asset managers have opened 19 long-short funds, the most in one year. The funds’ rising popularity shows how skeptical small investors remain even after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index recouped almost half the 57 percent loss incurred from October 2007 to the March 2009 low. Conventional mutual funds that only buy U.S. stocks posted $4.6 billion of redemptions in the first 10 months of the year, while bond funds added $280 billion. “Companies are capitalizing on the uncertainty in the market,” Nadia Papagiannis, an analyst with Chicago-based Morningstar, said in an interview. “There’s also a mystique that comes with hedge-fund investing.” The best-seller among the funds is Hussman Strategic Growth, run by economist John Hussman of Ellicott City, Maryland. It drew $1.7 billion through September after limiting its loss last year to 9 percent, according to Morningstar, less than half the average of hedge funds. The $3.4 billion Highbridge Statistical Market Neutral Fund , run by JPMorgan’s Highbridge Capital Management LLC, pulled in $1.5 billion. At Pimco, the world’s largest bond manager, Bill Gross ’s Fundamental Advantage Total Return Fund raked in $786 million, Morningstar’s data show. Budget Hedge Funds Long-short funds buy stocks as well as sell them short. In a short transaction, the investor sells borrowed shares in a bet that the price will subsequently fall and the stock can be purchased and the loan repaid at a profit. These funds hold more long positions, or those that make money when prices rise, than shorts. Bear-market funds typically hold more short than long trades, and also invest in securities such as commodities that may rise when stocks fall. Most conventional mutual funds don’t short stocks. The alternative funds have been around since at least 1977 and had sales increases after the dot-com bubble burst in 2000. They mostly target people who aren’t wealthy enough to invest in hedge funds, the lightly regulated private partnerships that are typically open only to clients with a net worth of at least $1 million. Wider Appeal Like other mutual funds, alternative funds are overseen by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and operate with restrictions on the investments they can hold. They also face limits on a tool employed freely by hedge funds: borrowed money, which can be used to amplify returns. Alternative funds are also luring some hedge-fund investors attracted by the ability to withdraw money on a daily basis, said Jed Laskowitz, head of global strategic relationships for the fund unit of New York-based JPMorgan , the second-largest U.S. bank after Bank of America Corp. Investors were angered last year when some hedge funds froze or limited redemptions amid the market’s plunge. They were also alienated by Bernard Madoff’s Ponzi scheme, which has cost investors $21 billion. “Part of the growth is from investors looking for safe havens, part of it is among clients not wanting to give up liquidity,” Laskowitz said. Increasing Allocations A majority of institutions and financial advisers said alternatives will account for more than 10 percent of their portfolios over the next five years, according to a Nov. 16 survey by Morningstar and Barron’s magazine. A quarter of those polled expect to have more than 25 percent of their investments in that category. Alternative-investment products currently account for less than 1 percent of the $10.8 trillion mutual-fund industry. Hedge funds oversee $1.45 trillion and recorded inflows of $10.2 billion in October, according to Eurekahedge Pte in Singapore. Traditional hedge-fund investors including pension funds and endowments have said they’re seeking more liquid investments after struggling to raise cash during the credit crisis. Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, the wealthiest U.S. school, sold $2.5 billion of bonds in December, cut jobs and postponed building projects. Gartmore Sees Convergence Gartmore Group Ltd., a British manager of about 21.8 billion pounds ($36 billion) that announced plans for an initial public offering last week, said it’s aiming for a “convergence” of hedge-fund and mutual-fund investments. “A lot of people don’t want to have another situation like they did in 2008 where they can lose 40 or 50 percent again,” Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Meyer said Nov. 20. The S&P’s rebound this year may limit the growth of alternatives in the near term, says Burton Greenwald , an independent mutual-fund consultant in Philadelphia. “As the public returns to the equity markets, they will be less interested in these somewhat exotic products,” Greenwald said. “Given a year or two of traditional stock-market returns, their memories might prove to be very short.” In the U.S., mutual funds aren’t allowed to borrow more than a third of their assets to amplify returns. This in turn limits how much stock they can short. The rules curb the funds’ ability to react quickly to changing markets, potentially limiting returns and their appeal for hedge-fund investors, said Vidak Radonjic , a managing partner at Jersey City, New Jersey-based Beryl Consulting Group LLC. “Mutual funds are heavily regulated and hence often respond to market shifts more like an oil tanker and less like a kayak,” he said. Comparative Returns Hedge funds returned 17 percent this year through October, according to data from Hedge Fund Research Inc. in Chicago. Long-short mutual funds rose 9.6 percent, while bear-market mutual funds declined 33 percent, Morningstar’s data show. The S&P 500 returned 17 percent, including reinvested dividends. In 2008, bear-market funds gained 30 percent while their long-short counterparts fell 15 percent. Hedge funds lost an average of 19 percent. This year’s inflows suggest some investors may be willing to accept a less spectacular performance in return for liquidity and lower fees. The average annual fee on long-short funds is 2.1 percent, compared with 2 percent of assets and 20 percent of profits at hedge funds. While cheap compared with hedge funds, fees on the alternatives are double those of traditional U.S. stock funds. Long Not Enough Besides short sales, long-short and bear-market funds use strategies such as arbitrage and derivatives. Arbitrage seeks to exploit inefficiencies in security prices, while derivative contracts such as swaps enable wagers on or against assets. “Mutual funds are losing assets, and it might be that they are looking to salvage some of the market share they are losing to hedge funds,” Peter Rup, chief investment officer at New York-based Orion Capital Management LLC, which invests in hedge funds, said in an interview. “The long-only strategy is antiquated,” he said. JPMorgan filed an SEC registration statement in August to open the HighBridge Dynamic Commodities Strategy Fund, which would use commodity-linked derivatives to bet on oil, metals and agricultural markets. Barclays Global Investors, the San Francisco-based money manager that is being acquired by BlackRock Inc., on Nov. 16 opened an exchange-traded fund called iShares Diversified Alternatives Trust . The fund, BGI’s first that doesn’t track an index, uses futures and forward contracts to take long positions or bet against currencies, commodities, stock and bond indexes. Pimco Chief Executive Officer Mohamed El-Erian has said the world is in a “new normal” of eroding U.S. dominance and slower economic growth rates. Since his return in January 2008, the firm has opened two funds reflecting those views: Global Multi-Asset Fund and Global Advantage Strategy Bond Fund. “People realized that they had a lot more equity risk than they thought,” said Jon Short , head of the U.S. institutional business at Newport Beach, California-based Pimco. To contact the reporter on this story: Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam in Boston at sbhaktavatsa@bloomberg.net .

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Treasury Sells $44 Billion of Two-Year Government Debt at Record Low Yield

November 23, 2009

By Daniel Kruger Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) — The Treasury sold $44 billion of two-year notes at a yield of 0.802 percent, the lowest on record, as demand for the safety of U.S. government securities surges going into year-end. Investors are piling into short-term Treasuries on concern that this year’s rally in risk assets has outpaced growth prospects and as Federal Reserve officials signaled interest rates will remain near zero for an extended period. Rates on some Treasury bills turned negative last week for the first time since last December, when global credit markets froze. “It just points to ongoing yield grab at the front-end,” said Carl Lantz, an interest-rate strategist in New York at Credit Suisse Group AG, one of 18 primary dealers that trade with the Fed. “People are being pushed further out the money market curve when you have bills at the front-end trading at zero or negative.” The yield on the current two-year note rose one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 0.74 percent at 2:06 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The 1 percent security maturing in October 2011 fell less than 1/32 to 100 16/32. The previous low for the so-called high yield was 0.922 percent on the auction held. Dec. 26, 2008. The bid-to-cover ratio, which gauges demand by comparing total bids with the amount of securities offered, was 3.16, compared with 3.63 at the previous auction. The average at the last 10 auctions was 2.92. ‘Option to React’ The last auction, a $44 billion offering on Oct. 27, drew a yield of 1.02 percent. Indirect bidders , a class of investors that includes foreign central banks, purchased 44.5 percent of the notes today, the same as at the October sale. The average for the past 10 sales was 44 percent. The size of today’s two-year offering matched the record set last month. The Treasury is scheduled to sell $42 billion of five-year securities tomorrow and $32 billion of debt maturing in seven years on Nov. 25, both record amounts. Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said yesterday the central bank should retain the flexibility to respond to any weakening in the economy by extending beyond March its authority to buy mortgage-backed securities and agency bonds. “I would just like to keep them active at a very low level instead of saying we’re shutting down, shutting down permanently,” Bullard told reporters after a speech in New York. “Initially it would do nothing for the economy, but it would give the Fed the option to react to future news as it comes in.” Negative Rates The Fed said on Nov. 4 that it will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities through the first quarter of next year. It reiterated that interest rates will stay at almost zero for “an extended period.” For the first time in seven decades, Treasury bills are paying no interest while stocks continue to appreciate — a divergence that might be perilous if Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke didn’t know all about 1938. That’s when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 25 percent even as bill rates tumbled to 0.05 percent from 0.45 percent. In 1939 stocks began a three-year, 34 percent decline after the Fed increased borrowing costs prematurely to stymie inflation that never materialized. Great Depression Buff While almost no one expects Bernanke, a self-described “Great Depression” buff, to raise rates before mid-2010, bond investors say with unemployment above 10 percent and housing taking another downturn, they have no qualms about lending the government money for nothing to ensure their capital is preserved. Stock investors, meanwhile, say the worst is over and that low borrowing costs coupled with the $12 trillion of fiscal and monetary stimulus will bolster earnings . The three-month bill rate rose two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 0.023 percent, according to Bloomberg data. Three-month bill rates turned negative on Nov. 19 for the first time since last year’s credit freeze. The Treasury also sold $31 billion of six-month notes today at a yield of 0.14 percent and $30 billion of three-month notes at a yield of 0.04 percent, the lowest since Dec. 22, 2008, a week after the Fed lowered its target rate for overnight loans between banks to a range of zero to 0.25 percent. To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Kruger in New York at dkruger1@bloomberg.net .

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Singapore’s CPI continues decline in October

November 23, 2009

Singapore’s CPI continues decline in October

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Taiwan’s unemployment falls slightly in October

November 23, 2009

Taiwan’s unemployment falls slightly in October

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Mexican oil output declines 5.6% in October

November 22, 2009

Mexican oil output declines 5.6% in October

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US housing starts fall 10.6% in October

November 19, 2009

US housing starts fall 10.6% in October

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UK retail sales climb 3% in October

November 19, 2009

UK retail sales climb 3% in October

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U.S. Consumer Prices Increased 0.3% in October as Prices for Fuel Climbed

November 18, 2009

By Courtney Schlisserman Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) — The cost of living in the U.S. rose more than forecast in October as Americans paid more for fuel, while so-called core prices held at a pace that supports the Federal Reserve’s forecast for tame inflation. The 0.3 percent rise in the consumer-price index followed a 0.2 percent increase in September, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Excluding food and energy costs, the core index rose 0.2 percent for a second month. Unemployment at a 26-year high of 10.2 percent and wages that were down 5.2 percent in September from a year earlier are giving companies such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. little room to raise prices. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Nov. 16 that the economic “headwinds” will limit the recovery, allowing interest rates to stay low for an “extended period.” “I don’t see anything in the report that suggests there’s any real inflation flare-up,” said Joseph LaVorgna , chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. “The Fed is comfortably on hold.” Economists forecast the consumer price index would rise 0.2 percent, according to the median of 78 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a decline of 0.2 percent to a rise of 0.5 percent. The core index was forecast to rise 0.1 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey. Housing Starts Fall U.S. stock-index futures erased gains after the Commerce Department said housing starts unexpectedly plunged 11 percent last month to the lowest level since April. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were down 0.1 percent to 1,106.0 at 9:02 a.m. after rising as much as 0.3 percent. Treasuries remained lower after the consumer price report and before the U.S. announces tomorrow the amounts of 2-, 5- and 7-year notes it will sell next week. The 10-year note yield rose two basis points to 3.34 percent at 8:35 a.m. in New York. Compared with a year earlier, consumer prices were down 0.2 percent. Core prices rose 1.7 percent from October 2008 after a 1.5 percent year-over-year gain in September. Energy costs increased 1.5 percent in October, led by fuel oil and gasoline. The year-over-year declines in the consumer price index are getting smaller as crude oil prices increase from an almost five-year low in December 2008. Crude Oil The U.S. on Nov. 10 raised its forecast for crude oil prices this year and next on speculation that demand will rise as the global economy improves. West Texas Intermediate oil, the U.S. benchmark, will average $62 a barrel in 2009, up from last month’s forecast of $59.90. Crude oil will average $78.13 in 2010, according to the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report from the Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration. Crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange averaged $75.82 a barrel in October, compared with $69.47 in September. Prices have continued to increase this month, averaging $78.69. Gasoline prices in October averaged $2.56 a gallon in October, compared with $2.55 a month earlier, according to AAA. Food prices, which account for 14.6 percent of the CPI, increased 0.1 percent in October, reflecting higher dairy costs. Prices for meats and fruits and vegetables declined during the month. Walmart Cost Cuts Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, is experiencing “ongoing deflation across our businesses,” Michael T. Durke , the Bentonville, Arkansas-based company’s chief executive officer said Nov. 12. Walmart accelerated efforts to cut costs in the third quarter as falling food prices and the worst U.S. unemployment rate in a quarter century muted revenue. Owners-equivalent rent, one of the categories used to track rental prices, was unchanged. In September, the measure dropped 0.1 percent, the first decline since 1992. Costs of medical care increased 0.2 percent in October and are up 3.5 percent from the same month last year. Airline fares rose 1.7 percent last month. The CPI is the broadest of the three monthly price gauges from the Labor Department because it includes goods and services. A report yesterday showed wholesale prices rose 0.3 percent. The cost of imported goods rose 0.7 percent, the government said last week. Almost 60 percent of the CPI covers prices consumers pay for services ranging from medical visits to airline fares and movie tickets. The Fed earlier this month repeated that it will keep interest rates near zero for “an extended period” and specified for the first time that policy will stay unchanged as long as inflation expectations are stable and unemployment fails to decline. “Inflation seems likely to remain subdued for some time,” Bernanke said in a Nov. 16 speech to the Economic Club of New York. The weak labor market and reduced bank lending He also said “significant economic challenges remain.” To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington cshlisserma@bloomberg.net

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US retail sales rise 1.4% in October

November 17, 2009

US retail sales rise 1.4% in October

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Eurozone consumer prices decline 0.1% in October

November 17, 2009

Eurozone consumer prices decline 0.1% in October

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British inflation accelerates to 1.5% in October

November 17, 2009

British inflation accelerates to 1.5% in October

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Singapore’s exports fall sharply in October

November 17, 2009

Singapore’s exports fall sharply in October

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Video: ING’s Knightley Sees U.K. Inflation Surge Easing in 2010

November 17, 2009

Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) — James Knightley, economist for ING Financial Markets, talks with Bloomberg’s Andrea Catherwood about U.K. inflation after the government reported prices climbed in October for the first time in eight months.

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Video: ING’s Knightley Sees U.K. Inflation Surge Easing in 2010

November 17, 2009

Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) — James Knightley, economist for ING Financial Markets, talks with Bloomberg’s Andrea Catherwood about U.K. inflation after the government reported prices climbed in October for the first time in eight months.

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Sales, Housing, Output in U.S. Probably Rose, Signaling Sustained Rebound

November 15, 2009

By Shobhana Chandra and Robert Willis Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) — Retail sales probably rebounded in October, production climbed and work began on more houses, allaying concern the U.S. expansion will unravel without the government’s help, economists said before reports this week. Purchases rose 0.9 percent after dropping 1.5 percent in September, according to the median of 66 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of Commerce Department data tomorrow. Output rose for a fourth month and housing starts reached the highest level in a year, other figures may show. Auto dealers last month saw demand improve even after the administration’s trade-in incentive expired, while the increase in construction showed builders weren’t deterred by the possible end of the first-time buyer credit. Rising exports to expanding economies in Asia and Europe may also spur increases in manufacturing, maintaining the pickup into 2010. “The recovery seems increasingly sustainable,” Richard Berner , co-head of global economics for Morgan Stanley in New York, said in a report to clients. “Incoming data for consumer spending has been significantly stronger than expected.” Auto demand is stabilizing after plunging to a three- decade low earlier this year. General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. last month had their first combined sales gain in three years, helping the industry rebound from a plunge in September. The retail report may also show that excluding autos , sales rose 0.4 percent, according to the survey median. Non-Auto Sales Sales at stores open at least a year climbed last month from a year earlier at Framingham, Massachusetts-based TJX Cos. , owner of T.J. Maxx and Marshalls stores that sell designer goods at discounted prices. Luxury chains Saks Inc. and Nordstrom Inc. also had gains. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Retailing Index , which includes companies from Home Depot Inc. to Gap Inc. and Target Corp., has jumped 77 percent since March 9, outpacing gains in the S&P 500 gauge, which is up 62 percent from the 12-year low reached that day. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s largest retailer, raised its annual profit forecast while predicting U.S. sales may be little changed this quarter. “I continue to be encouraged by both our traffic and market-share gains,” Mike Duke , chief executive officer of the Bentonville, Arkansas-based company, said on a pre-recorded conference call last week. The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators rose in October for a seventh straight month, economists said ahead of a report on Nov. 19. Factory Rebound The recovery is driven in large part by manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the economy. Industrial production, due from the Federal Reserve on Nov. 17, grew 0.4 percent in October, according to the Bloomberg survey. The proportion of plant capacity in use probably also increased. Regional Fed reports will reinforce the improvement. Data from the New York Fed tomorrow may show manufacturing in the region expanded in November for the fourth consecutive month. A similar report from the Fed Bank of Philadelphia , due Nov. 19, is forecast to show factories accelerated this month. A tax credit of as much as $8,000 for first-time homebuyers has helped pull housing out of its worst slump since the Great Depression. The incentive, due to expire at the end of this month, was extended to April 30 and expanded to include some current owners. Builders broke ground on homes at a 600,000 annual pace in October, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed before the Nov. 18 Commerce Department report. Permits, a sign of future construction, also probably rose. Residential Builders A report from the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo a day earlier may show an index of builder confidence increased, according to the survey median. In coming months, gains in consumer spending may be restrained by rising unemployment , which reached a 26-year high last month and is expected to stay above 10 percent through the first half of 2010, a Bloomberg said earlier this month showed. Mounting joblessness and idle factory capacity is helping tame inflation, Labor Department reports may show. The cost of living index, due on Nov. 18, rose 0.2 percent in October for a second month, according to the Bloomberg survey median. The index of wholesale prices, to be released a day earlier, may have climbed 0.5 percent last month. To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

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Stock Market Rebound Raises Red Flags For Economists, Investors

November 15, 2009

With a close over 10,270 on Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average had its best showing of 2009. Like the day a few weeks earlier when it broke the five-figure mark for the first time since October 2008, the market’s achievement was greeted not by champagne and celebration, but by introspection among economists and investors. Can this rally be trusted?

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India’s inflation reaches 1.34% in October

November 15, 2009

India’s inflation reaches 1.34% in October

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To charge or not to charge

November 13, 2009

closely with their customers before making any significant moves to expand their products and services online. ALM’s Real Estate Media Group, for example, recently pulled the trigger on a paid model with the October debut of Distressed Assets Investor

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U.S. Stock Futures, Disney Climb; S&P 500 Index Is Set for Weekly Advance

November 13, 2009

By Adam Haigh Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stock-index futures rose, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will extend its second consecutive weekly gain, after earnings at Walt Disney Co. and Abercrombie & Fitch Co. topped analysts’ estimates. Walt Disney, the world’s largest media company, added 1.2 percent after saying fourth-quarter profit climbed 18 percent. Abercrombie & Fitch rallied 3.5 percent. A report today may show consumer confidence improved this month. Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in December rose 0.2 percent to 1,089.80 as of 7:22 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 0.2 percent to 10,209. Nasdaq- 100 Index futures added 0.2 percent to 1,778. Stocks in Europe advanced as the euro region’s economy emerged from recession in the third quarter, helped by exports from Germany and France. “The markets can make new highs,” said Richard Jeffrey , chief investment officer of Cazenove Capital Management in London who oversees about $15 billion of assets. “If we look towards Christmas and beyond we aren’t going to see substantial progress made in the near term and into 2010 we could see more volatility,” he told Bloomberg Television. The S&P 500 has gained 1.7 percent this week and on Nov. 11 closed at its highest level since October 2008. The index has rallied 61 percent from a 12-year low in March, recovering almost half of its plunge from a record in October 2007, amid optimism that government stimulus programs and record-low interest rates are helping to drag the economy out of recession. Global Recovery An improving economy and rebounding equities may support consumer confidence even as the job market continues to deteriorate. The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index for this month, due today at 10 a.m., may rise to 71 from 70.6 in October, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said the global economic recovery will take years and won’t be a one-size-fits-all situation. Asia will lead the recovery, followed by the U.S. and then Europe, he said in Singapore today. Higher joblessness is likely for advanced nations next year, he said. Walt Disney added 1.2 percent to $29.39 in German trading. Net income increased to $895 million from $760 million a year earlier. Excluding one-time items, profit of 46 cents a share beat the 41-cent average estimate of 21 analysts. Sales gained 4.5 percent to $9.87 billion in the period ended Oct. 3, topping the $9.3 billion average estimate of 18 analysts. Abercrombie & Fitch Abercrombie & Fitch climbed 3.5 percent to 38.05 in pre- market New York trading as the teen-clothing retailer reported a third-quarter adjusted profit of 30 cents per share, while analysts in a Bloomberg survey estimated 20 cents. Eighty-three percent of S&P 500 companies that have released results since Oct. 7 exceeded the average analyst estimate for third-quarter earnings per share, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Nordstrom Inc. may move after the U.S. department-store chain with more than 100 namesake locations predicted its gross margin, a measure of profitability that indicates the percentage of sales left after the cost of goods sold, would widen at most by 20 basis points for the full year. Bill Dreher , an analyst with Deutsche Bank AG projected a 34 basis-point improvement. A basis point is equivalent to 0.01 percentage point. The shares dropped 4.4 percent in early trading. Liberty Global Inc., the international cable company controlled by billionaire John Malone , agreed to buy Unitymedia GmbH for about 2 billion euros ($2.98 billion). The stock fell 0.9 percent to $22.89 in Germany. The trade deficit in the U.S. probably widened in September, reflecting rising demand for imported oil and automobiles as the economy rebounded from the worst recession since the 1930s, economists said before a report today. The gap increased to $31.8 billion from $30.7 billion the prior month, according to the median of 77 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Other figures today may show the cost of goods from abroad rose in October for a third straight month. To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net .

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Australia’s jobless rate climbs to 5.8% in October

November 12, 2009

Australia’s jobless rate climbs to 5.8% in October

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Australian Employers Unexpectedly Added 24,500 Jobs, Driving Up Currency

November 11, 2009

By Jacob Greber Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) — Australian employers unexpectedly added workers in October, pushing up the nation’s currency on speculation the central bank will raise interest rates for a record third straight month. The number of people employed rose 24,500 from September, the statistics bureau said in Sydney today. The median estimate of 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a decline of 10,000. The jobless rose to 5.8 percent from 5.7 percent. Australia’s economy is expanding with “less spare capacity than earlier thought likely,” according to the central bank, as Chinese-led demand for resources spurs companies such as Chevron Corp. to hire workers. Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens will raise the benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point on Dec. 1 to 3.75 percent, economists surveyed by Bloomberg say. “A labor market that’s not as weak as expected will provide more support to consumer spending,” which accounts for about 60 percent of the economy, Joshua Williamson , an economist at Citigroup Inc. in Sydney, said ahead of today’s report. “A quarter-point increase is on the table and the market will now be looking at a half-point rise in December.” The Australian dollar rose to the highest this year at 93.45 U.S. cents as of 11:31 a.m. in Sydney from 93.10 cents just before the report was released. The two-year government bond yield climbed to 4.76 percent from 4.68 percent. Investors are betting there is a 70 percent chance of a quarter-point boost in December, according to Bloomberg calculations based on interbank futures on the Sydney Futures Exchange at 8:36 a.m. Full-Time Jobs The number of full-time jobs gained 2,900 in October and part-time employment increased 21,500, today’s report showed. Australia’s economy is growing faster and generating more jobs than the government and central bank forecast earlier this year, helped by Stevens’s decision to slash borrowing costs by a record 4.25 percentage points between September 2008 and April to a half-century low of 3 percent. Growth was also boosted in the first half of the year by more than A$20 billion ($19 billion) in cash handouts to households from Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s government. Another A$22 billion is being spent on roads, ports and schools. “This is a significantly better outcome than is currently being experienced in other advanced economies,” Alex Joiner , an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne, said ahead of today’s report. The jobless rate will remain around 6 percent to 6.5 percent in 2010, ANZ predicts. The unemployment rate in the U.S. jumped to 10.2 percent last month, the highest level since 1983 and the European Union’s rate climbed to 9.7 percent in September, the worst result since January 1999. Interest Rates Signs of a rebound in Australian employment were among reasons Stevens raised the overnight cash rate target by a quarter point in October and this month to 3.5 percent, and signaled further “gradual” increases. “The Australian economy is operating with less spare capacity than earlier thought likely, and the outlook for the next few years has improved,” the central bank said in its quarterly monetary policy statement published last week. While employment growth is expected “to be subdued” over the next couple of quarters, before accelerating in 2010, the outlook for the labor market has “improved” since the bank’s August policy statement, it said on Nov. 6. It didn’t provide specific forecasts for the jobless rate. Australian gross domestic product growth will accelerate from 1.75 percent this year to 3.25 percent in 2010, the central bank said. In August, the bank forecast gains of 0.5 percent and 2.25 percent respectively. The economy expanded 1 percent in the first half of this year. Business Investment The economy is forecast to continue its expansion in 2011 and 2012 as companies boost investment in resources, including Western Australia’s A$43 billion Gorgon liquefied natural gas project owned by Chevron, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc. Projects such as Gorgon, which is expected to generate 10,000 jobs, were among reasons the government this month scrapped a May prediction that the jobless rate would rise to 8.25 percent in the second quarter of next year. Treasurer Wayne Swan said on Nov. 2 that unemployment will peak at 6.75 percent by the June quarter of 2010 before decreasing to 6.5 percent the following year. The lower forecast means the equivalent of 250,000 fewer full-time jobs will be lost, he said. Recent reports showed business confidence rose in October to near its highest level in almost six years, home-loan approvals gained in September by the most in six months and house prices jumped 8.4 percent in the six months through Sept. 30. The participation rate, which measures the labor force as a percentage of the population aged over 15, held at 65.2 percent in October, today’s report showed. To contact the reporter for this story: Jacob Greber in Sydney at jgreber@bloomberg.net

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Australian Employers Unexpectedly Hire 24,500; Currency Jumps on Rate Bets

November 11, 2009

By Jacob Greber Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) — Australian employers unexpectedly added workers in October, pushing up the nation’s currency on speculation the central bank will raise interest rates for a record third straight month. The number of people employed rose 24,500 from September, the statistics bureau said in Sydney today. The median estimate of 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a decline of 10,000. The jobless rose to 5.8 percent from 5.7 percent. Australia’s economy is expanding with “less spare capacity than earlier thought likely,” according to the central bank, as Chinese-led demand for resources spurs companies such as Chevron Corp. to hire workers. Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens will raise the benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point on Dec. 1 to 3.75 percent, economists surveyed by Bloomberg say. “A labor market that’s not as weak as expected will provide more support to consumer spending,” which accounts for about 60 percent of the economy, Joshua Williamson , an economist at Citigroup Inc. in Sydney, said ahead of today’s report. “A quarter-point increase is on the table and the market will now be looking at a half-point rise in December.” The Australian dollar rose to the highest this year at 93.45 U.S. cents as of 11:31 a.m. in Sydney from 93.10 cents just before the report was released. The two-year government bond yield climbed to 4.76 percent from 4.68 percent. Investors are betting there is a 70 percent chance of a quarter-point boost in December, according to Bloomberg calculations based on interbank futures on the Sydney Futures Exchange at 8:36 a.m. Full-Time Jobs The number of full-time jobs gained 2,900 in October and part-time employment increased 21,500, today’s report showed. Australia’s economy is growing faster and generating more jobs than the government and central bank forecast earlier this year, helped by Stevens’s decision to slash borrowing costs by a record 4.25 percentage points between September 2008 and April to a half-century low of 3 percent. Growth was also boosted in the first half of the year by more than A$20 billion ($19 billion) in cash handouts to households from Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s government. Another A$22 billion is being spent on roads, ports and schools. “This is a significantly better outcome than is currently being experienced in other advanced economies,” Alex Joiner , an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne, said ahead of today’s report. The jobless rate will remain around 6 percent to 6.5 percent in 2010, ANZ predicts. The unemployment rate in the U.S. jumped to 10.2 percent last month, the highest level since 1983 and the European Union’s rate climbed to 9.7 percent in September, the worst result since January 1999. Interest Rates Signs of a rebound in Australian employment were among reasons Stevens raised the overnight cash rate target by a quarter point in October and this month to 3.5 percent, and signaled further “gradual” increases. “The Australian economy is operating with less spare capacity than earlier thought likely, and the outlook for the next few years has improved,” the central bank said in its quarterly monetary policy statement published last week. While employment growth is expected “to be subdued” over the next couple of quarters, before accelerating in 2010, the outlook for the labor market has “improved” since the bank’s August policy statement, it said on Nov. 6. It didn’t provide specific forecasts for the jobless rate. Australian gross domestic product growth will accelerate from 1.75 percent this year to 3.25 percent in 2010, the central bank said. In August, the bank forecast gains of 0.5 percent and 2.25 percent respectively. The economy expanded 1 percent in the first half of this year. Business Investment The economy is forecast to continue its expansion in 2011 and 2012 as companies boost investment in resources, including Western Australia’s A$43 billion Gorgon liquefied natural gas project owned by Chevron, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc. Projects such as Gorgon, which is expected to generate 10,000 jobs, were among reasons the government this month scrapped a May prediction that the jobless rate would rise to 8.25 percent in the second quarter of next year. Treasurer Wayne Swan said on Nov. 2 that unemployment will peak at 6.75 percent by the June quarter of 2010 before decreasing to 6.5 percent the following year. The lower forecast means the equivalent of 250,000 fewer full-time jobs will be lost, he said. Recent reports showed business confidence rose in October to near its highest level in almost six years, home-loan approvals gained in September by the most in six months and house prices jumped 8.4 percent in the six months through Sept. 30. The participation rate, which measures the labor force as a percentage of the population aged over 15, held at 65.2 percent in October, today’s report showed. To contact the reporter for this story: Jacob Greber in Sydney at jgreber@bloomberg.net

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Americans More Unhappy With Feds’ Housing Fixes

November 11, 2009

Trillions spent on propping up banks, buying mortgages, tax credits and new programs designed to lower payments and prevent foreclosures. And yet a new survey from Move Inc., the parent of Realtor.com, says Americans are growing increasingly dissatisfied with how Washington is handling the housing mess. The October 2009 survey found that the federal government’s approval rating by consumers on housing issues has slipped since March 2009. By a six-percent margin, Americans said they don’t think the government is doing enough to stabilize the housing market (48.2% compared to 42.2% five months ago). According to the survey, consumers still want low interest rates (31.4%) and action by the government to help homeowners prevent foreclosures (28.5%), the same two top priorities expressed by survey respondents in March. The survey found that public participation in the programs to prevent foreclosures is much lower than anticipated. In March 2009, several days after the details of the Making Home Affordable program were announced; Move’s survey found that 17.6 percent of those interviewed said they intended to participate in the Administration’s program. Now only 8.8 percent said they actually did participate. The number of consumers interested in investing in real estate has doubled since March. One out of eight (12.1%) homebuyers today plan to purchase a home as an investment property, compared to 5.6 percent seven months ago. Fear of foreclosure is fading. In March 52.5 percent of all survey respondents said they were concerned that they or someone they know may face foreclosure in the next 6 to 12 months. That number dipped slightly to 45.1 percent in October. The survey of 1,000 people was conducted the third week of October.

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Pakistan’s inflation slows to 8.87% in October

November 11, 2009

Pakistan’s inflation slows to 8.87% in October

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Iran’s inflation slips to 7.6% in October

November 11, 2009

Iran’s inflation slips to 7.6% in October

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China’s retail sales jump 16.2% in October

November 11, 2009

China’s retail sales jump 16.2% in October

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Institutional Investors Throwing Big Money Around Class A Quality Retail Property

November 11, 2009

After what’s seemed like an eternity of little or no action in the retail property investment arena, several major retail investment transactions north of $100 million have surfaced since October. Considering that news of retail property sale transactions…

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Taiwan Dollar Declines as Central Bank Bans Foreigners From Time Deposits

November 10, 2009

By Lilian Karunungan and Weiyi Lim Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) — Taiwan’s dollar fell for the first time in six days after the financial regulator banned foreign investors from placing funds in time deposits to prevent currency speculation. The move comes after central bank Governor Perng Fai-nan on Oct. 14 said foreign investors have about NT$500 billion ($15.5 billion) in Taiwan dollar accounts, five times more than he considers acceptable. These funds may be used for purposes other than stock investments, Perng said. “The move unsettled the currency but should not have been a big surprise given the central bank has been highlighting its concern over the foreign inflows to Taiwan dollar deposits for some weeks,” said Sean Callow , a currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “Foreign investors are rather unhappy about it. They worry that this won’t be the last change.” The local dollar dropped 0.1 percent to NT$32.383 versus the U.S. currency as of 9:16 a.m. local time, according to Taipei Forex Inc. The Taiwan dollar has traded within a range of NT$33 per dollar and NT$32 for the past six months. Its 1.4 percent advance for 2009 compares with a 36 percent increase for the Brazilian real and a 34 percent climb for the Australian dollar. Only the yen, with a 0.7 percent gain, has risen less among the 16 most-active currencies. The benchmark Taiex index climbed 0.1 percent to 7,600.22, the fourth day of gains. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest custom-chip maker, rose 0.1 percent. United Microelectronics Corp., the second largest, advanced 0.6 percent. “Some investors may interpret that as a positive signal for the stock market because if the inflows can’t be parked in time deposits, some may be transferred into the stock market,” said Ma Tieying, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. in Singapore. Overseas Investors Overseas investors bought $11.5 billion more Taiwan shares than they sold this year through yesterday, helping lift the Taiex stock index 65 percent. “The original aim for foreign investors was to put their money in the capital market, and this ban will make sure they return to this purpose,” George Chou , deputy governor of the central bank said yesterday by telephone. The Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) has been intervening to curb gains in the currency to prevent a slump in exports from prolonging a recession. Taiwan’s dollar rose yesterday for a fifth day after the island reported on Nov. 9 that October overseas sales declined by the least in 13 months. The one-month non-deliverable forward contract fell 0.5 percent to NT$32.29 yesterday and rose 0.1 percent today. Forwards are agreements to buy and sell assets at current prices for delivery at a specified time and date. Non-deliverable contracts are settled in dollars. ‘Exaggerated Response’ “The Taiwanese dollar has not appreciated much this year,” Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. wrote in a research report. “This makes the ban on foreign investment in time deposits to curb currency speculation a bit of an exaggerated response. On the other hand, the fact that reserves have increased by almost 23 percent this year suggests that the muted currency rise may also be reflective of the success of intervention.” As the central bank bought dollars, foreign-exchange reserves rose by $63 billion to $341.2 billion in 12 consecutive months of gains, according to a Nov. 5 central bank report. Those are the world’s fourth-largest holdings. Central banks intervene in the currency markets by arranging purchases or sales of foreign exchange. Taiwan’s dollar will appreciate 7 percent against the greenback by the end of 2010, according to the median of 13 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. Details of Curbs Foreign investors can’t extend their existing time deposits when they mature, the Financial Supervisory Commission said in a statement on its Web site yesterday. “If foreign investors bring their money to leave them in time deposits to earn interest instead of investing, then they shouldn’t be here,” Lu Ting-chieh , chief secretary at the financial regulator, said by telephone yesterday. “In Asia, regulators are worried that hot money flowing in would affect the currency and stock markets.” Before yesterday, foreign investors could put their funds in time deposits for three months and were allowed to extend for a further three months, Lu said. Foreign investors can still invest 30 percent of their remitted funds in short-term financial products that mature within one year, according to the statement. Taiwan’s economy may return to growth in the October-to- December period after contracting for five straight quarters, the statistics bureau said in August. Overseas sales dropped 4.7 percent from a year earlier in October, the smallest decline since September 2008, the Finance Ministry said. To contact the reporter on this story: Lilian Karunungan in Singapore at at lkarunungan@bloomberg.net ; Weiyi Lim in Taipei at wlim26@bloomberg.net .

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China’s Industrial Production, Retail Sales Accelerate, Cementing Recovery

November 10, 2009

By Bloomberg News Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) — China’s industrial production and retail sales accelerated in October, bolstering forecasts for economic growth to exceed 10 percent this quarter for the first time in more than a year. Production rose 16.1 percent from a year earlier, the most since March 2008, the statistics bureau said at briefing in Beijing today. Retail sales gained an annual 16.2 percent in October, and urban fixed-asset investment climbed 33.1 percent in the first 10 months of this year, it said. The strengthening recovery in the world’s third-largest economy may spark concern that consumer and asset prices will climb next year, and put pressure on policy makers to pare their stimulus measures. The government may also face increasing international calls to allow the yuan to appreciate, after it halted gains last year to aid exporters. “Beijing will need to tighten policy soon as the nation’s recovery will get an extra boost from stronger external demand,” said Brian Jackson , a strategist on emerging markets at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong. “Waiting too long increases the risk of high inflation and asset-price bubbles.” The yuan may start to gain against the dollar from the first quarter of next year, when interest rates may also climb from a five-year low of 5.31 percent, Jackson said. Ma Delun , a deputy governor at the central bank, told reporters in Mumbai yesterday that the nation will maintain its “loose” monetary policy for now, citing the challenges of weak external and domestic demand. Obama Visit U.S. President Barack Obama may raise the yuan in talks with Chinese leaders in Beijing next week, after the U.S. Treasury Department last month criticized “the recent lack of flexibility” in the currency. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said last week that a stronger Chinese currency would help the global economy and the International Monetary Fund has called the yuan “significantly undervalued.” Japanese Vice Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda told reporters last week that it is “desirable for the yuan to be flexible.” China has maintained the currency’s value at around 6.83 against the dollar since July 2008, after allowing it to rise 21 percent in the previous three years. Yuan forwards indicated yesterday that traders expect the currency to resume gains, climbing 3 percent in the next year. Consumer prices fell by 0.5 percent in October from a year ago, the smallest drop since declines began in February, and producer prices dropped 5.8 percent, according to the bureau. ‘Sharp’ Rebound The increase in retail sales last month was the biggest since December last year excluding seasonal distortions in January and February. SAIC Motor Corp. , the biggest domestic automaker, sold 240,300 vehicles as the nation’s passenger-car sales surged. “China has rebounded sharply from the slowdown earlier this year, and this momentum looks set to continue into 2010,” Jackson said. Moody’s Investors Service on Nov. 9 raised China’s debt rating outlook to “positive” from “stable,” citing the government’s success in steering the nation through the global crisis and strong financial position, including $2.273 trillion of foreign-currency holdings . The Chinese economy will expand 10.5 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Besides building 270,000 low-rent homes, 200,000 kilometers of rural roads and nearly 1500 kilometers of railway under a $586 billion stimulus plan, China’s government has pressed banks to lend, flooding the economy with cash. The World Bank cautioned last week that the nation may risk asset bubbles and a “misallocation of resources.” Urban property prices jumped 3.9 percent in October, the biggest increase in 14 months, the statistics bureau said yesterday. The value of sales jumped 79.2 percent in the first 10 months of 2009 from a year earlier. — Li Yanping . Editors: Paul Panckhurst , Chris Anstey To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Li Yanping in Beijing at +86-10-6649-7568 or yli16@bloomberg.net

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China auto sales surge in October

November 8, 2009

China auto sales surge in October

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Canada’ unemployment hits 8.6% in October

November 8, 2009

Canada’ unemployment hits 8.6% in October

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U.S. Jobless Rate Jumps to 26-Year High of 10.2%, Posing Risk to Recovery

November 7, 2009

By Timothy R. Homan Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) — The unemployment rate in the U.S. jumped to 10.2 percent in October, the highest level since 1983, threatening the emerging economic recovery and giving President Barack Obama and Democrats a bigger hurdle to overcome before next year’s Congressional elections. Payrolls fell by 190,000 last month, more than forecast by economists, a Labor Department report showed yesterday in Washington. The jobless rate rose from 9.8 percent in September. Factory payrolls dropped by the most in four months, and the average workweek held at a record low. Treasury two-year notes rallied on bets the Federal Reserve is more likely to maintain its pledge to keep interest rates near zero. The figures prompted Obama, who signed a bill yesterday extending jobless benefits, to promise new measures to find jobs for some of the 15.7 million unemployed Americans. “This will have a chilling effect on consumer confidence and business confidence,” said Joseph Brusuelas , a director at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “It does look like unemployment will creep much higher.” Two-year note yields dropped to 0.85 percent late yesterday, and touched the lowest level since May. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index rose 0.3 percent to close at 1,069.3, after falling as much as 0.7 percent. Payrolls were forecast to drop 175,000 after an initially reported 263,000 decline for September, according to the median estimate of 84 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The jobless rate was projected to rise to 9.9 percent. Homebuyer Tax Credit Obama signed into law a measure extending a tax credit of up to $8,000 for homebuyers and benefits for unemployed workers. He promised to pursue further measures to create jobs. “My economic team is looking at ideas such as additional investments in our aging roads and bridges, incentives to encourage families and business to make buildings more energy efficient,” additional tax cuts, and more steps to ease the flow of credit to small business and promote exports, he said yesterday at the White House. For congressional Democrats facing challengers in midterm elections next year, the continuing erosion in the job market puts them at risk. Voters on Nov. 3 overwhelmingly cited unease with the economy and worries about jobs as they ousted the Democratic governor of New Jersey and installed a Republican governor in Virginia after eight years of Democratic rule there. Obama carried both states in 2008. The U.S. economy has lost 7.3 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, when the unemployment rate stood at 4.9 percent. Since Obama took office in January, the economy has lost 3.49 million jobs. Obama Stimulus The administration said last week that the $787 billion stimulus package plan signed into law in February was directly responsible for saving or creating about 640,000 jobs. The so-called underemployment rate — which includes part- time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want work but have given up looking — reached a record 17.5 percent in October from 17 percent, yesterday’s report showed. “We’ve got lots of people just giving up and leaving the labor force,” said Julia Coronado , a former Fed economist now at BNP Paribas in New York. “Consumer incomes are under pressure, and that raises questions about the sustainability of the improvement we’ve seen in consumer spending.” Johnson & Johnson, the world’s largest health-products company, is among those cutting payrolls amid concern spending will cool as government-assistance programs wane. The New Brunswick, New Jersey-based company said Nov. 3 it will shrink its workforce by as much as 7,000 workers. Record-Low Week The average work week held at a record low of 33 hours in October. Average weekly earnings rose to $617.76 from $616.11 a month earlier. Workers’ average hourly earnings were 2.4 percent higher than October 2008, the smallest gain since 2004. Factory payrolls dropped 61,000 after decreasing 45,000 in September, yesterday’s report showed. The median forecast by economists called for a drop of 42,000. The decline included a gain of 4,600 jobs in auto manufacturing and parts industries. Sales of cars and light trucks rebounded last month after plunging in the wake of the government’s so-called cash-for- clunkers incentive plan. Vehicles sold at a 10.5 million annual pace in October, up from a 9.2 million rate in September. Yesterday’s report contained some bright spots. Revisions added 91,000 to payroll figures previously reported for September and August, and the number of temporary workers rose by 34,000, the third consecutive gain. Temporary Help Payrolls at temporary-help agencies often turn up before total employment because companies are not certain increases in demand will be sustainable enough to warrant the expense of taking on permanent staff. Builders cut payrolls by 62,000 after a loss of 68,000 in September. Financial firms cut payrolls by 8,000, after 9,000 reductions the prior month. Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, subtracted 61,000 workers after cuts of 105,000 the prior month. Retail payrolls decreased by 39,800 after a decline of 44,200. The U.S. economy expanded last quarter for the first time in a year, growing at a 3.5 percent pace as government incentives spurred more consumers to buy homes and automobiles. To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net

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Video: Heinz Says Hedge Funds Had `Narrow’ Decline in October: Video

November 6, 2009

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) — Kenneth Heinz, president of Hedge Fund Research Inc., talks with Bloomberg’s Julie Hyman and Mark Crumpton about the performance of hedge funds in October. Heinz also discusses investment strategy and the performance of relative value funds. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Obama Says U.S. to Pursue Job-Creation Measures as Unemployment Rate Jumps

November 6, 2009

By Kate Andersen Brower and Roger Runningen Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama said his administration will continue to pursue measures that will stimulate job growth after the Labor Department reported the nation’s unemployment rate jumped to 10.2 percent last month. The president made his remarks after signing into law a measure extending an $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers and benefits for unemployed workers. It also provides tax refunds to money-losing companies. “My economic team is looking at ideas such as additional investments in our aging roads and bridges, incentives to encourage families and business to make buildings more energy efficient,” additional tax cuts, and more steps to ease the flow of credit to small business and promote exports, he said. Employers have shed 7.3 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, 3.5 million of those since Obama took office in January. Obama called the October jobs report “a sobering number that underscores the challenge that lies ahead.” The economy was listed as the most important issue facing the country by 47 percent of the American public in a CNN poll conducted Oct. 30 to Nov. 1, surpassing health care and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. “Although it will take time and will take patience, I’m confident that our economy will recover,” Obama said. Money Into Economy The legislation Obama signed will funnel an estimated $45 billion into the economy this year. It is the first major expansion of provisions in February’s $787 billion economic stimulus package. The bill would extend until April 30 the tax credit for first-time homebuyers that would otherwise expire at the end of this month. The jobless would get as many as 20 additional weeks of unemployment assistance. Companies would be given expanded ability to apply losses to previous years’ income, allowing them to qualify this year for $33 billion in tax refunds, according to Congress’s Joint Committee on Taxation. The 10.2 percent jobless rate in October is a 26-year high, up from 9.8 percent in September. The Labor Department said employers cut 190,000 jobs last month, more than the 175,000 expected by economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The jobless rate exceeded 10 percent for the first time since 1983. To contact the reporters on this story: Kate Andersen Brower in Washington at Kandersen7@bloomberg.net ; Roger Runningen in Washington at rrunningen@bloomberg.net

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U.S. Unemployment Rate Jumps to 10.2% as Payrolls Fall More Than Forecast

November 6, 2009

By Timothy R. Homan Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) — The unemployment rate in the U.S. soared to a 26-year high of 10.2 percent in October and employers cut more jobs than forecast, underscoring why Federal Reserve policy makers say interest rates will remain low until the labor market recovers. Payrolls fell by 190,000 workers last month, compared with a 175,000 drop anticipated by the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. The jobless rate gained from 9.8 percent in September and exceeded 10 percent for the first time since 1983. Companies such as Johnson & Johnson are cutting staff on concern the emerging recovery will be cut short as American consumers retrench. Fed policy makers this week said the economy will probably “remain weak for a time” and reiterated a pledge to keep borrowing costs low for an “extended period.” “Labor markets overall still reflect recessionary conditions, and further downward pressure on employment and compensation is likely,” Brian Bethune , chief financial economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, said before the report. “It is no surprise that consumer confidence is backpedaling, and the outlook for consumer spending is poor.” Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index fell 0.5 percent to 1,058.30 at 8:35 a.m. in New York. Treasuries rose, pushing the yield on the 10-year note down to 3.49 percent from 3.53 percent. Revisions added 91,000 from payroll figures previously reported for September and August. Payrolls Forecast Payrolls were forecast to drop 175,000 after an initially reported 263,000 decline for September, according to the median estimate of 84 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from decreases of 250,000 to 105,000. The jobless rate was projected to rise to 9.9 percent. Forecasts ranged from 9.8 percent to 10.1 percent. Monthly losses accelerated after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008 and peaked at 741,000 in January. Today’s report showed factory payrolls dropped 61,000 after decreasing 45,000 in the prior month. The median forecast by economists called for a drop of 42,000. The decline included a gain of 4,600 jobs in auto manufacturing and parts industries. Sales of cars and light trucks rebounded last month after plunging in the wake of the government’s so-called cash-for- clunkers incentive plan. Vehicles sold at a 10.5 million annual pace in October, up from a 9.2 million rate in September. Payrolls at builders declined 62,000 after a loss of 68,000 in September. Financial firms cut payrolls by 8,000, after 9,000 reductions the prior month. Services Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, subtracted 61,000 workers after cuts of 105,000 the prior month. Retail payrolls decreased by 39,800 after a decline of 44,200. Government payrolls were unchanged from the prior month, the report showed. The so-called underemployment rate — which includes part- time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want work but have given up looking — reached a record 17.5 percent from 17 percent in September. Temporary workers rose by 34,000, the first gain since December 2007, when the recession began. Neal Soss , chief economist at Credit Suisse in New York, is among those saying the gain is a harbinger of increases in overall employment. Payrolls at temporary-help agencies often turn up before total employment because companies are not certain increases in demand will be sustainable enough to warrant the expense of taking on permanent staff. 10% Threshold Economists surveyed by Bloomberg last month projected the jobless rate will exceed 10 percent early next year and average 9.9 percent for all of 2010 even as the economy expands 2.4 percent next year. Voters in Virginia and New Jersey this week took out their frustration over joblessness on the political party in charge. The economy and jobs were the most important issues as Republicans won governorships in both states held by Democrats, according to election polls. President Barack Obama in February signed into law a $787 billion stimulus package aimed at reviving growth and stemming job losses. The administration said last week that the plan was directly responsible for saving or creating about 640,000 jobs. Exit polling this week showed six in ten New Jersey voters and 55 percent of Virginians said Obama didn’t influence their vote. The U.S. economy expanded last quarter for the first time in a year, growing at a 3.5 percent pace as government incentives spurred consumers to spend more on homes and automobiles. Spending Some companies are cutting payrolls amid concern spending will cool as government-assistance programs wane. The New Brunswick, New Jersey-based Johnson & Johnson, the world’s largest health-products company said Nov. 3 it will shrink its workforce by as much as 7 percent, or 7,000 workers. Other companies are gaining confidence. Deere & Co., the world’s largest maker of agricultural equipment, said last week it’s recalling 452 workers, the majority of manufacturing employees dismissed earlier this year at a factory in Iowa. Cisco Systems Inc.’s John Chambers , one of the first technology leaders to herald the recession two years ago, said yesterday he now sees a global economic recovery, fueling a rebound in his company’s sales this quarter. “The numbers are indicating us being in the early, initial phase of a recovery — with the U.S. leading the way,” Chambers said in an interview. Average Hours The average work week held at a record low of 33 hours in October, while average weekly earnings rose to $617.76 from $616.11 a month earlier. Workers’ average hourly earnings were 2.4 percent higher than October 2008, the smallest gain since 2004. Fed officials met in Washington this week and signaled that a return to economic growth alone won’t result in higher interest rates. Economist Joseph LaVorgna of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York said in a note to clients that the jobless rate is “the dominant variable driving changes in the fed funds” rate, and the central bank “has never raised rates with unemployment rising.” To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net

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Video: Unemployment in U.S. Jumps to 10.2% as Payrolls Fall: Video

November 6, 2009

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) — The unemployment rate in the U.S. soared to a 26-year high of 10.2 percent in October and employers cut more jobs than forecast. Payrolls fell by 190,000 workers last month, compared with a 175,000 drop anticipated by the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Bloomberg’s Lizzie O’Leary reports. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Shugg Says U.S. Jobs Weakness to Persist for Some Time: Video

November 6, 2009

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) — James Shugg, senior economist at Westpac Banking Corp., talks with Bloomberg’s Scarlet Fu about the outlook for U.S. jobs. Economists predict October payrolls fell by 175,000 last month, the smallest drop since August 2008, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Shugg speaks from London. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: JPMorgan’s Lee Says Payroll Growth Key for U.S. Recovery: Video

November 5, 2009

Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) — Thomas Lee, chief U.S. equity strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., talks with Bloomberg’s Carol Massar and Matt Miller about the outlook for U.S. economic recovery. Lee also discusses unemployment and the October jobs report. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Aeropostale, American Eagle Sales Trail Estimates Ahead of Holiday Season

November 5, 2009

By Allison Abell Schwartz Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) — Aeropostale Inc. , American Eagle Outfitters Inc. and Limited Brands Inc. reported October sales that missed analysts’ estimates before the start of the holiday shopping season. Sales at U.S. stores open at least a year rose 3 percent at Aeropostale, the U.S. teen retailer with more than 900 stores, trailing the 14 percent average of analysts’ estimates compiled by Retail Metrics Inc. Comparable-store sales at American Eagle fell 5 percent, missing a 2 percent projected gain. Sales at Limited , the owner of the Victoria’s Secret chain, dropped 4 percent, more than the 3.1 percent estimated decline. October is a transitional month between the two largest selling seasons of the year: back-to-school and Christmas. U.S. retailers use the month to clear out fall merchandise and make room for holiday floor sets, according to Ken Perkins , president of Swampscott, Massachusetts-based Retail Metrics. “The teen apparel space was the biggest disappointment,” Perkins said today in a telephone interview. Black Friday, the day after U.S. Thanksgiving and the traditional start of the U.S. holiday shopping season, falls on Nov. 27 this year. Sales in November and December may rise modestly, by 2 percent to 4 percent, Perkins said today. “It’ll be interesting to see to what extent consumers just sort of hold off until Black Friday and really don’t do much shopping,” or if they choose to shop earlier because they know stores have less inventory and want to take advantage of sales, Perkins said. Shares Fall Aeropostale, based in New York, fell $5.21, or 14 percent, to $32.82 at 11:29 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Pittsburgh-based American Eagle dropped $2.02, or 11 percent, to $15.84. Limited, of Columbus, Ohio, lost 8 cents to $17.70. Some department stores fared better than the specialty retailers. TJX Cos. and Ross Stores Inc., which both sell designer goods at discounted prices, reported sales gains. Chains including Saks Inc. and Nordstrom Inc. reported sales that topped estimates. Some investors consider comparable-store sales the best measure of retail health because they exclude the effect of location openings and closings in the intervening months. Total U.S. comparable-store sales rose 2.1 percent last month, the International Council of Shopping Centers said today. That’s the largest increase since a 2.5 percent gain in July 2008, the New York-based trade group said today in an e-mailed statement. The ICSC, which based its results on a survey of 32 retailers, said November sales will climb 5 percent to 8 percent from a year earlier. Lehman Collapse Retail Metrics said same-store sales dropped 3.5 percent in October 2008, as consumers put a halt on spending a month after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. on Sept. 15. Perkins said this month’s sales reflect an rising trend since July’s bottom, when sales dropped 4.7 percent. U.S. holiday sales in the last two months of the year may fall 1 percent to $437.6 billion from a year earlier, the National Retail Federation forecast on Oct. 6. That’s not as steep as last year’s decline of 3.4 percent, the first drop since the Washington-based NRF began tracking holiday sales in 1995. “It’s still very uncertain how consumers are going to act between now and Christmas,” Kohl’s Corp. Chief Executive Officer Kevin Mansell said in an Oct. 28 interview. The Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin-based department-store chain reported a 1.4 percent October sales gain, which trailed the 4.9 percent average estimate. U.S. consumer spending in September dropped for the first time in five months, according to Commerce Department data. Spending fell 0.5 percent after a 1.4 percent jump in August. Consumer confidence in October also declined. The jobless rate reached a 26-year high of 9.8 percent in September. “We do not believe, with unemployment continuing to increase, that the consumer will be in a highly festive mood to splurge,” Eric Beder , an analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co. in New York, said in a note. To contact the reporter on this story: Allison Abell Schwartz in New York at aabell@bloomberg.net

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CMBS Delinquencies Swell to 5.5% in October, says BarCap …

November 4, 2009

The 30-plus day delinquency rate jumped 41bps to 5.5% in October as current loans deteriorated and transferred to special servicers. For the past three months, delinquencies have grown an average of 34bps, and BarCap analysts expect the pace to increase through … This annual event, hosted by Safeguard Properties, is one of a few events focused solely on property preservation and field services . The program generally covers both best practices and process improvements. …

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U.S. Companies Eliminated an Estimated 203,000 Jobs in October, ADP Says

November 4, 2009

By Timothy R. Homan Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) — Companies in the U.S. cut an estimated 203,000 jobs in October, according to a private report based on payroll data. The drop compares with a revised 227,000 decline the prior month, data from ADP Employer Services showed today. The figures were forecast to show a decline of 198,000 jobs, according to the median estimate of 34 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The report signals unemployment will keep climbing even after the economy begins to expand, one reason why Federal Reserve policy makers may pledge to keep interest rates low for a long time after their meeting today. ADP has overstated the Labor Department’s initial estimate of payroll losses by 103,000 per month on average in the five months to September. “While the economy has resumed growing, the labor market is in rough shape,” Joseph Brusuelas , a director at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said before the report. “Businesses appear hesitant to boost staff until the recovery matures.” Stock-index futures held earlier gains following the report. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 0.7 percent to 1,049 at 8:32 a.m. in New York. Treasury securities fell, pushing the yield on the 10-year note up to 3.51 percent from 3.47 percent late yesterday. ADP includes only private employment and doesn’t take into account hiring by government agencies. Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in St. Louis produces the report jointly with ADP. Payroll Forecast The report comes two days before a Labor Department release that is forecast to show the unemployment rate rose to 9.9 percent in October, the highest since 1983, while employers cut 175,000 jobs. Another report today showed employers announced the fewest job cuts in 17 months in October. Planned firings fell 51 percent last month to 55,679 from 112,884 in October 2008, a fifth consecutive year-on-year decline and the largest since July 2006, Chicago-based placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said. Announcements were down 16 percent from the prior month. The economy already has lost 7.2 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the most of any economic slump since the Great Depression. Today’s ADP report showed a decrease of 117,000 workers in goods-producing industries including manufacturers and construction companies. Service providers cut 86,000 workers. Employment in construction fell by 51,000, the 33rd straight monthly drop, while manufacturers cut 65,000 workers. Breakdown of Firings Companies employing more than 499 workers shrank their workforce by 53,000 jobs. Medium-sized businesses, with 50 to 499 employees, eliminated 75,000 jobs and small companies also decreased payrolls by 75,000, ADP said. US Airways Group Inc. , the smallest full-fare U.S. airline, was among companies cutting staff last month. The Tempe, Arizona-based carrier, said it will cut 1,000 jobs, or about 3 percent of the workforce, and drop some flight routes. Some companies are adding to their payrolls. Deere & Co. , the world’s largest maker of agricultural equipment, said last week it’s recalling 452 workers, the majority of manufacturing employees laid off earlier this year at a company factory in Iowa. The ADP report is based on data from about 400,000 businesses with 23 million workers on payrolls. ADP began keeping records in January 2001 and started publishing its numbers in 2006. To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net

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Russia’s gas output increases in October

November 4, 2009

Russia’s gas output increases in October

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Toyota’s Lexus Expands Lead Among U.S. Luxury Models With 20% Monthly Gain

November 3, 2009

By Alex Ortolani Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) — Toyota Motor Corp. ’s Lexus said U.S. sales rose 20 percent in October, increasing its lead on Bayerische Motoren Werke AG’s namesake brand among luxury models. Deliveries rose to 19,502 vehicles for Lexus, the Toyota City, Japan-based automaker said today. BMW, the second-best selling luxury line, fell 19 percent to 16,443, the Munich-based automaker said. Lexus and Daimler AG’s third-ranked Mercedes-Benz gained on BMW in October. BMW lost ground as unemployment and low consumer confidence have tempered sales of high-end vehicles, said Christopher Hopson , an analyst with IHS Global Insight. “Consumers are still showing some fiscal austerity right now and may still be cautious until we see better footing,” said Hopson, who is based in Lexington, Massachusetts. “Luxury sales should rise with the economy.” The results were a second double-digit gain for Lexus after it posted a 12 percent U.S. sales increase in September, while BMW rose 2.1 percent, compared with weak year-earlier results. Lexus sold 168,910 vehicles in the U.S. this year through October, ahead of BMW’s 160,666 units. Mercedes-Benz gained in October, with its name brand climbing 21 percent to 18,193 vehicles, the Stuttgart, Germany- based parent company said. The gain came from “a more stable economic environment relative to last year” and new products such as the GLK-Class sport-utility vehicle, Ernst Lieb , president of the Mercedes- Benz’s U.S. division, said in the statement. Audi, Lincoln Fall Volkswagen AG’s luxury Audi division said sales fell 1.1 percent to 7,358 vehicles. The Wolfsburg, Germany-based automaker said the decline was because of the introduction of a new A4 sedan in October 2008. Ford’s Lincoln line fell 9 percent to 6,735 vehicles, the Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker said in a statement. The automaker’s overall sales rose 3.1 percent in the month. General Motors Co.’s Cadillac sales rose 22 percent in the month to 11,602 vehicles, the automaker said on its Web site. High-end vehicle sales will probably rise more in December than the year-earlier month because of a steep drop from the slowing economy in 2008, Hopson said. To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Ortolani in Southfield, Michigan, at aortolani1@bloomberg.net

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French car sales surge 25.4% in October

November 3, 2009

French car sales surge 25.4% in October

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Survey: Opec oil output fell in October

November 3, 2009

Survey: Opec oil output fell in October

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Forums – Investment grade U.S. commercial real estate prices rise …

November 3, 2009

The delinquency rate of U.S. commercial real estate loans securitized into Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities ( CMBS ) hit 4.8 percent in October, up from 4.36 the prior month and dwarfing the 0.77 rate of a year earlier, according to …

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Manufacturing in U.S. Probably Grew by Most Since 2006, Driving Expansion

November 2, 2009

By Shobhana Chandra Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) — Factories in the U.S. probably grew at a faster pace, while the number of people signing contracts to buy houses showed no improvement, signaling a shift to manufacturing as the driver of the expansion, economists said before reports today. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index rose to 53 in October, the highest level in three years, according to the median forecast of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Another report may show pending home sales in September were unchanged, the first time since January they didn’t increase. Increasing demand, boosted in part by the administration’s “cash-for-clunkers” plan, has led to a record plunge in stockpiles that may keep assembly lines humming. After rising last quarter at the fastest pace in two decades, home building will probably cool as uncertainty over another government initiative, the first-time buyer tax credit, slows sales. “Manufacturing is back in expansion territory on a sustained basis,” said Adam York , an economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “The recovery in housing is going to be gradual. The economy will be growing, but this isn’t necessarily going to be a great quarter.” The Tempe, Arizona-based ISM group’s report is due at 10 a.m. New York time. Forecasts ranged from 52 to 55, after a reading of 52.6 in September. Fifty is the dividing line between expansion and contraction. Manufacturing accounts for about 12 percent of the economy. Global Recovery Factories worldwide are starting to raise output. Chinese manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in 18 months in October, bolstered by exports, a purchasing managers’ index showed today. Europe’s manufacturing industry grew for the first time in 17 months, a separate report showed. Pending U.S. home sales, due from the National Association of Realtors at 10 a.m., jumped 6.4 percent in August. Survey estimates for September ranged from a drop of 2 percent to a gain of 5.5 percent. While falling prices and low mortgages rates have steadied demand, some buyers are waiting while lawmakers debate whether to extend the $8,000 tax credit that has helped housing emerge from its worst slump in eight decades. Also at 10 a.m. today, a Commerce Department report may show spending on construction projects fell 0.2 percent in September, the seventh decrease this year, according to the survey median. S&P 500 The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell last week, marking the first monthly drop since February, after reports prompted concern that consumers will restrain the economic recovery. Reports on manufacturing have shown improvement. The ISM- Chicago Inc.’s business barometer rose in October to the highest level in 13 months, the group reported last week. Gains in the gauges for new orders, production and backlogs signaled the recovery will persist. Regional Federal Reserve Bank reports showed manufacturing in the New York district expanded in October for a third month and grew in the Philadelphia region at a slower pace. Texas Instruments Inc., the second-largest U.S. chipmaker, is among companies saying the future looks brighter. The Dallas- based company forecast fourth-quarter profit and sales that beat the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, indicating demand for electronic components is recovering further. “Our customers are winding down their inventory corrections and have begun to increase production levels in their factories,” Chief Executive Officer Rich Templeton said in a statement on Oct. 19. To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net

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