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Richard (RJ) Eskow: The French Connection: That Jailed Banker Raises US Issues

October 6, 2010

Remember 2003, when so many Americans hated France for refusing to participate in the Iraq invasion? The airwaves were filled with insults about “effete” and “cowardly” Frenchmen, the phrase “cheese eating surrender monkeys” was on many a pair of lips, and rich patriots were boycotting Rhône wine in the spirit of national sacrifice. Well, munch on a Freedom Fry and ponder this: Finally, after one stunning revelation of big bank lawlessness after another, a banker is going to jail… in France. That’s a bit of a national embarrassment, n’est-ce pas? Jerome Kerviel was sentenced today to five years in prison (with two years suspended), and was ordered to pay the equivalent in $6.7 billion US in damages. There are a number of questions about Kerviel’s case, including the fact that he never profited personally from his massive trades. That part of Kerviel’s psychology is incomprehensible to the Wall Street mind: He made his bank billions of dollars, and earned less than $200,000 US per year for his efforts. A true American shark would have nothing but contempt for a sucker like that. Guess who got off pretty much scott free in the whole deal? Société Générale, the bank that employed him. If the name sounds familiar, here’s why: SocGen was one of beneficiaries of the US taxpayers’ largesse when, as a counterparty to AIG, the government directed AIG to pay the French bank $11.9 billion. That’s 100 cents on the dollar for the money AIG owed SocGen for credit default swaps and CDS collateral postings. Newspaper reports about Kerviel say that he generated more than 1.4 billion Euros in profits during a single year. And yet there was so little curiosity about his activities that he was still able to bet more that $50 billion Euros, more than the entire market value of the bank that employed him, without getting caught. As an AP story reported , ” an internal report by the bank found managers failed to follow up on 74 different alarms about Kerviel’s activities.” They were shocked — shocked — to find out that gambling was going on in there. In that sense, the judge’s ruling was odd. While the French are to be applauded for their willingness to indict a banker, the court’s ruling bent over backward to exonerate and placate the bank itself. The court ordered Kerviel to pay back the entire amount the bank allegedly lost. While Kerviel will actually never be able to do that, it was the judge’s was of saying that the bank bore absolutely no responsibility for what occurred on its premises. It was also a repudiation of Kerviel’s assertion that other traders were doing the same things he was. Instead of reprimanding the bank for its horrible risk management practices — controls so sloppy that the entire bank could be put at risk by mid-level employee — presiding judge Dominique Pauthe praised the bank’s response to the crime once it had happened. If the bank had left the vault doors open, presumably the judge would have praised it for promptly sounding the alarm after it had been robbed. But then, Société Générale has a way of getting lucky where the authorities are concerned. The US decision to pay the bank the full value of its AIG obligations demonstrates that. Think about it: In the course of a year, an allegedly “rogue” trader wreaked so much havoc that it cost Société Générale $6.7 billion — and the US government honored an obligation for nearly double that amount. Had the US let AIG go down, or refused to honor this obligation, SocGen’s fate might have been very different. Instead it survived this incident pretty much unscathed. The French bank seems to have done well by its association with Goldman Sachs, which brokered a number of its arrangements with AIG. It’s important to remember the role those two firms played in the months preceding the financial collapse. As Bloomberg News reported : Banks that bought swaps as protection against losses on mortgage-linked assets demanded cash collateral as the market value of the securities plunged last year, overwhelming AIG’s ability to pay. “It was precisely that drain of liquidity to Goldman and SocGen that put AIG in a position of illiquidity and ultimately threw them into the government’s arms,” said Charles Calomiris, a finance professor at Columbia Business School in New York. In other words, they had already bled a lot out of AIG before it collapsed, and yet were still able to receive 100 cents on the dollar where others might have been forced to settle for less. As with the Kerviel affair, SocGen’s oversight appears to have been lax when it came to its AIG agreements. David Fiderer properly notes SocGen’s casual indifference to a major investment, deferring that task to Goldman. Not that Goldman didn’t work for its client (and itself): It’s been accused of engaging in serious gamesmanship over its valuation of some of the securities in question. Many Americans who are already outraged over AIG’s counterparty payouts may know that AIG believed it had overpaid Goldman $1.56 billion, or that Goldman had refused to have its valuations reviewed by a panel of independent firms. One of the open questions about l’affaire Kerviel is whether he acted alone. At the very least, there were enormous gaps in SocGen’s internal controls. At worst, the bank looked the other way while one or more of its traders generated huge profits. But the real question are for our country, not France: Where are the US indictments and convictions? We’ve already discussed the curious decision not to prosecute anyone at AIG. But then, the French don’t have our SEC, which has so often chosen to cut sweetheart deals that leave bank shareholders on the hook for the illegal behavior of bank executives, while letting the bankers themselves walk away with their freedom and their bonuses. Senators aren’t the only ones upset about that. Judges are furious with these slap-on-the-wrist SEC agreements. In fact, “sweetheart deal” was the phrase a judge used to describe the SEC’s agreement with Barclay’s Bank. The Barclay’s case was the fourth in a series of cases where banks violated international law only to be let off easy, prompting the judge’s comments. As the New York Times reports: “Judge Sullivan asked why the government had not indicted and prosecuted the foreign banks, rather than agreeing to the settlements. He also asked whether any individuals from Barclays were being held responsible, though no one else has been charged in the case. “One must wonder what the penalty is, said Judge Sullivan … Judge Sullivan’s comments was part of a litany of judges’ complaints along the same lines. These judges understand that criminal prosecution of banks — and bankers — has precisely the deterrent effect we need to protect society. We’ve seen rampant bank criminal behavior go unpunished, from stock fraud to forged mortgage documents to laundering drug money. The French court’s air kiss to SocGen was unacceptable, given that bank’s negligent or complicit role in Kerviel’s action. That means that, at least in one sense, Kerviel’s the fall guy (even if he’s not the hero some of the French seem to think he is). But at least Kerviel’s conviction and sentence might deter future bad bankers. The US bankers who engaged in criminal behavior are walking around free. They’re writing big checks to political candidates, whining that nobody likes them and, of course, drinking nothing but the best French wines. DISCLAIMERS: Two potential conflicts of interest here — I used to work for AIG, and I’m one-quarter French. When I was about 18 I mentioned that second fact to a very pretty young woman on a train to Paris, in my broken French, to which she responded in true Gallic fashion: “How nice for you.” _________________________ Richard (RJ) Eskow, a consultant and writer (and former insurance/finance executive), is a Senior Fellow with the Campaign for America’s Future. This post was produced as part of the Curbing Wall Street project. Richard also blogs at A Night Light . He can be reached at “rjeskow@ourfuture.org.” Website: Eskow and Associates

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Video: Moyne Says Kerviel May Have to Pay Back SocGen’s Losses

October 5, 2010

Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) — Emmanuel Moyne, a lawyer at Linklaters, talks about the outlook for a Paris court decision today on whether Jerome Kerviel was responsible for a 4.9 billion-euro ($6.5 billion) trading loss at Societe Generale SA in 2008. He speaks with Francine Lacqua at Bloomberg Television’s “On The Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Ghosn Sees Strong Demand for Leaf Electric Car in U.S.: Video

September 30, 2010

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — Carlos Ghosn, chief executive officer of Renault SA and Nissan Motor Co., talks about the demand outlook for the Leaf electric car. Ghosn, speaking at the Paris Motor Show, also discusses the infrastructure needed to support the electric-car industry and the outlook for auto sales. He speaks with Ryan Chilcote on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Booth Says Ford Making Progress Rebuilding Balance Sheet: Video

September 30, 2010

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — Lewis Booth, chief financial officer of Ford Motor Co., talks about the company’s performance and growth outlook. Booth, speaking at the Paris Motor Show, also discusses the automaker’s product pipeline, credit rating and competition. He speaks with Ryan Chilcote on Bloomberg Television’s “InsideTrack.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Reilly Says Opel’s Market Share May Reach 7% This Month

September 30, 2010

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — Nick Reilly, chief executive officer of General Motor Co.’s Adam Opel unit, talks about the company’s sales in Europe and cost cuts planned through next year. He speaks with Ryan Chilcote at the Paris Motor Show on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.”

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Video: Ryanair Plans to Fly to Major Airports as Growth Slows

September 23, 2010

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Daniel Lester reports on Ryanair Holdings Plc’s plans to open routes to all major European airports bar the top three, London Heathrow, Paris Charles de Gaulle and Frankfurt am Main.

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5-Day Emergency Contraceptive ‘Ella’ Approved By FDA

August 13, 2010

WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal health officials on Friday approved a new type of morning-after contraceptive that works longer than the current leading drug on the market. The pill ella from HRA Pharma reduces the chance of pregnancy up to five days after sex. Plan B, the most widely used emergency contraceptive pill, begins losing its ability to prevent pregnancy within three days of sex. The Food and Drug Administration approved the drug Friday as a prescription-only birth control option. The ruling clears the way for U.S. sales of the drug, which is already approved in Europe. Morristown, N.J.-based Watson Pharmaceuticals will market the drug in the U.S. under an agreement with HRA. Watson said it will launch the pill in the fourth quarter. Studies of ella by its manufacturer showed the drug prevented pregnancies longer and more consistently than Plan B. In a head-to-head trial between the two drugs, women who took ella had a 1.8 percent chance of becoming pregnant, while women who took Plan B had a 2.6 percent chance. Experts tracked nearly 1,700 women who randomly received one of the two pills within three to five days of having unprotected sex. Plan B is made by Teva Pharmaceuticals and is also marketed in several generic versions. Unlike ella, Plan B and other generic versions are available without a prescription for women 17 years and older. HRA Pharma did not request over-the-counter status for its drug. Ella uses the hormone progesterone to delay ovulation, a key step in the fertilization process. Despite this, the drug has drawn criticism from anti-abortion groups who say it is closer to an abortion pill than an emergency contraception pill. Groups including the Family Research Council argue the drug is chemically similar to the abortion drug mifeprestone, which can be taken to end a pregnancy up to 50 days into the gestation period. That drug has been associated with severe infections and bleeding after abortion. However, FDA reviewers reported no life-threatening medical side effects with ella. The most common side effects with the drug included headache, nausea and abdominal pain, according to an FDA release. Abortion rights groups hailed the approval as an important step for the FDA, which was criticized in 2006 for its handling of Plan B’s approval. Last year a federal judge ruled that the FDA deliberately delayed making a decision on whether to permit over-the-counter sales of Plan B to teenage girls, at the behest of the Bush administration. ”Approval of ella is another indication that the FDA is committed to restoring scientific integrity in its decisions,” said Kirsten Moore, president of the advocacy group Reproductive Health Technologies Project. Privately held HRA Pharma is based in Paris and specializes in women’s health products.

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Video: Lagarde Sees ‘Serious Pickup’ for Global Growth in 2011

July 29, 2010

July 29 (Bloomberg) — French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde talks about the outlook for global growth and plans to tackle the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. She speaks from Paris with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.”

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Video: Airbus’s Enders Says Short-Range Jets `Bread and Butter’: Video

July 19, 2010

July 19 (Bloomberg) — Tom Enders, chief executive officer of Airbus SAS, talks with Bloomberg’s Rishaad Salamat about the outlook for aircraft orders this year and production of the company’s A380 and A320 jets. Airbus and Boeing Co. announced 189 orders on the first day of the Farnborough Air Show, more than double the total on day one of last year’s Paris event, as leasing companies returned to the market after the recession. Enders speaks on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness With Margaret Brennan.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Lisa Derrick: Why Isn’t a Gay Porn Star Documentary Available on Amazon?

July 11, 2010

John Roecker (director of the upcoming Green Day documentary Heart Like a Hand Grenade , and cult hits Live Freaky, Die Freaky and Svengali ) set out to explore the world of the sex industry and wound up making frank, bold documentary Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About Gay Porn Stars, *But Were Afraid to Ask ! The seven episodes which aired on Here! TV featured some of the hottest names in the male sex industry, talking about the how and why of their careers. The actors discuss their past history as abused children, their drug use, their love lives off screen, their pasts and their futures. It’s gritty and gnarly, moving. Out of 16 of the actors, two are now dead, and one, Harlow Cuadra , is in prison. Roecker told me, “I want these guys to be heard, I want to give them a voice.” But the opportunity to learn about the human side to these men has just gotten smaller, even though the DVD collection of Roecker’s documentary is about to be released. I went to Amazon to pre-order Everything as a gift for a friend who is a fan of gay porn as well as the band Rancid and punk hero Tim Armstrong who donated music for the series. Everything wasn’t listed as available now or for pre-sale. It wasn’t listed at all . But Salo — with fourteen-year-olds having sex — was. So was Behind the Green Door . And Deep Throat . And The Devil in Miss Jones . Jenna Jameson’s autobiography, How to Make Love Like a Porn Star is readily available. Oh heck, Amazon sells Paris Hilton’s sex tape , and have pre-orders available for thousands of books, CDs and DVDs. Why not Roecker’s look at the gay sex business? Oddly Amazon doesn’t stock another film from the same distributor, Dream Boy , an R-rated feature which was released theatrically with good reviews. The film features the rape of young gay male character by another young man. The rapist claims he is straight. Amazon stocks Hound Dog with Dakota Fanning as the victim of a brutal on-screen rape. One person who queried Amazon about Everything received this stock reply: As a retailer, our goal is to provide customers with the broadest selection possible so they can find, discover, and buy any item they might be seeking. That selection includes some items which many people may find objectionable. Therefore, the items offered on our website represent a wide spectrum of opinions on a variety of topics. Amazon.com believes it is censorship not to sell certain titles because we believe their message is objectionable. Therefore, we’ll continue to make controversial works available in the United States and everywhere else, except where they’re prohibited by law. The letter goes on to suggest perhaps buying a gay porn DVD and/or a documentary on a straight porn star. Yes, but what about John Roecker’s documentary about gay porn stars? It is not listed at all. Why? Email and a call to Amazon’s PR department were not returned.

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OECD Warns Of ‘Muted’ Recovery, Criticizes Congress For Allowing Unemployment Benefits To Lapse

July 7, 2010

An international economic organization criticized the U.S. Congress on Wednesday for allowing extended unemployment benefits to lapse at the end of May, a move that thus far has denied more than 2 million Americans a critical lifeline during the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. In its report on the global employment outlook, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development noted that a “particularly worrisome feature” of America’s deep recession is the high number of workers who have been unemployed for more than six months. Nearly half of the unemployed fall into this category, while more than 1 in 4 has been unemployed for longer than a year, the Paris-based OECD noted. In the view of the OECD, “this group raises particular concerns for public policy,” as the long-term unemployed “are at an elevated risk of falling into poverty” and “risk becoming permanently marginalized in the labor market.” “In this context, it is troubling that the temporary extension of unemployment benefits to last as long as 99 weeks has been allowed to expire,” the report’s authors wrote. In the 36 days since extended jobless benefits expired, Congress has shot down several attempts to extend them further, the last falling just before legislators took the week off to celebrate Independence Day. In the meantime, layoff victims have been left ineligible for additional weekly benefits beyond the six-month period provided by states. By the end of this week, more than 2.1 million workers will have lost those benefits, according to Labor Department figures compiled by the National Employment Law Project. The group estimates that without action, that figure could rise to more than 3.2 million unemployed workers by the end of July — just before Congress goes on vacation for an entire month. And if Congress continues its obstinacy, the unemployed may remain out of work for years; the OECD doesn’t forecast a roaring recovery. “The economic recovery will be too muted to result in strong job creation,” the OECD report said. “Unemployment is likely to recede only slowly.” The U.S. recession has been particularly brutal compared to that experienced by the other 30 countries comprising the OECD, a group of advanced economies. On average, the OECD nations have seen unemployment rates rise by 50 percent; in the U.S., unemployment doubled from about 5 percent at the end of 2007 to more than 10 percent by the fall of 2009. To combat the high unemployment rate and restless job-creation machine, the OECD recommends that governments “should place a high priority on trying to encourage employers to step up hiring.” While most governments “have little room to apply additional monetary or fiscal stimulus” — given the Fed’s near-zero interest rate policy and the hundreds of billions in stimulus funds the Obama administration has already committed — nations should try employment-boosting measures that “achieve a lot of bang for the buck.” Nearly 15 million American workers are unemployed, according to the latest Labor Department figures. Among the methods the OECD suggests are government-sponsored programs that encourage private businesses to reduce workers’ hours rather than lay people off — something that “significantly reduced job losses” in 24 OECD countries — and “well-targeted hiring subsidies” like tax breaks for companies that hire additional workers. The OECD praised the HIRE Act enacted by Congress in March, which employs this method, adding that it could be “even more cost-effective” if firms were required to demonstrate that their new hires increased the firm’s overall payroll. Belgium, Ireland and other OECD members call for such a requirement. The U.S. does not. READ the OECD’s report: OECD on USA ************************* Shahien Nasiripour is the business reporter for the Huffington Post. You can send him an e-mail ; bookmark his page ; subscribe to his RSS feed ; follow him on Twitter ; friend him on Facebook ; and/or become a fan and get e-mail alerts when he writes.

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Video: TNS’s Petit-Perrin says Sarkozy made ‘too many promises’

July 6, 2010

July 6 (Bloomberg) — Guillaume Petit-Perrin, research manager for TNS Sofres, talks about the standing of French President Nicolas Sarkozy following allegations of irregularities in ministers’ expenses and political party funding. He speaks in Paris with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.”

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Video: Boone Says Drop in Euro Will Help Offset Austerity Cuts

July 6, 2010

July 6 (Bloomberg) — Laurence Boone, chief economist at Barclays Capital France, talks about pension reform and austerity measures in Europe. Boone speaks in Paris with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.”

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Video: Axa’s Chaney Says EU Spending Cuts Won’t Slow Growth

July 5, 2010

July 5 (Bloomberg) — Eric Chaney, chief economist at Axa SA, talks about the effect of European government spending cuts on economic growth. Chaney speaks in Paris with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.”

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Anne-Marie Masquelier Appointed as Global Medical Research Director at Cegedim Strategic Data (CSD)

June 30, 2010

PARIS–(Marketwire – July 1, 2010) –  Cegedim Strategic Data, leading provider of integrated healthcare research, is pleased to announce the appointment of Dr Anne-Marie Masquelier as Global Medical Research Director of CSD’s Medical Research CRO activities worldwide.

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EU Caps Bankers’ Bonuses

June 30, 2010

BRUSSELS — Bankers will only be able to get part of their yearly bonuses in cash upfront under new European Union rules that will enter into force next year. A deal announced Wednesday between EU governments and EU lawmakers will require banks to limit cash bonus payouts, with most executives only getting 30 percent straight away and the rest paid out later if the company performs well. The draft rules go to the European Parliament next week, where they are almost certain to win approval after the agreement reached late Tuesday. The discussion on the caps was launched after a European outcry over payments to executives of banks that had received large state bailouts to avoid collapse during the financial crisis. Some say big bonuses skew incentives in favor of excessive risk-taking. Starting next January, cash bonuses will be capped at 30 percent of the total bonus and 20 percent for “particularly large” bonuses. The measure leaves it to individual governments to determine what “particularly large” means in their economies. While some European countries including Britain have already imposed limits on banker bonuses, the new rules set minimum caps for all 27 members of the EU. French and German governments have also effectively set caps by pressing banks to agree to limit executive pay. A large part of the bonus must be deferred, thought it is up to governments to determine for how long. The money will be held as “contingent capital” for banks to call on first if they urgently need funding. The measure also limits “exceptional pension payments” to avoid the kind of bloated severance packages for disgraced departing executives that have caused public uproar around Europe. Banks will also be required to hold a minimum amount of capital to ensure they are covering risk from their trading book and complex securitized investments – such as mortgage-backed securities – to avoid a repeat of risk-related losses like those seen during the financial meltdown. The capital requirements will take effect in 2012. Global banking regulators are also separately drafting tighter capital requirements that European banks complain could force them to put aside far more money to counter risks. They say this could hit their profits and even force them to curb lending to companies and households. ___ Associated Press writer Angela Charlton in Paris contributed to this report.

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Video: Japan Livestock Disease Offers U.S. Farmers Opportunity: Video

June 28, 2010

June 29 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Mike Firn reports on the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Japan and its potential impact on the nation’s cattle import from the U.S. Foot-and-mouth is one of the most contagious livestock diseases and can have high mortality rates in young animals, according to the Paris-based World Organization for Animal Health. The disease has spread in Asia in recent months, spurring Japan to cull more than 158,000 animals. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Kerviel Gave Coherent Explanations When Confronted, SocGen Controller Says

June 17, 2010

By Heather Smith and Carol Matlack June 17 (Bloomberg) — Jerome Kerviel presented “coherent” explanations for his activities when questioned by internal controllers at Societe Generale SA , a former manager for the unit testified in court today. Marine Auclair, in charge of comparing traders’ reports with the bank’s accounts, said she contacted Kerviel and his superiors in April 2007 after finding a “mismatch” of 94 million euros ($116 million) between trades he reported and what was booked in the accounting system. Some of his trades “appeared fictitious, they didn’t have a real counterparty,” Auclair said at Kerviel’s criminal trial. He provided documents appearing to show they were genuine, she said. “He gave us explanations that seemed coherent, that corresponded to the situation.” Kerviel is on trial for faking documents, abuse of trust, and computer hacking related to the 4.9 billion-euro trading loss the bank incurred in 2008 after unwinding 50 billion euros worth of unauthorized positions. He admitted yesterday to the accusations, while insisting the bank knew of his actions. Auclair, when asked about Kerviel testimony earlier this week that his excuses were too “crude” to be believed, said “I’m not an idiot,” and that given the same circumstances again, she would still have believed what Kerviel told her. Auclair said she and her colleagues didn’t contact the bank’s back office to double-check the documents provided by Kerviel were genuine because “that wasn’t my job,” she said. Judge Dominique Pauthe opened today’s hearing saying Daniel Bouton , who stepped down as Societe Generale chief executive officer in April 2008, will be called to testify on June 22, the final day of witnesses in the trial. The hearings end June 25. To contact the reporters on this story: Heather Smith in Paris at hsmith26@bloomberg.net ; Carol Matlack in Paris at carol_matlack@businessweek.com .

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European Stocks, U.S. Futures Rise on Spain Copper, Oil Fall

June 17, 2010

By Stephen Kirkland June 17 (Bloomberg) — European stocks and U.S. index futures gained and the euro strengthened as a Spanish bond sale eased concern the government will struggle to finance its burgeoning deficit. Copper and oil retreated and gold rose. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.4 percent at 8:45 a.m. in New York. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.1 percent, trimming an earlier rally of as much as 0.7 percent after U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly increased. The euro rebounded, climbing 0.4 percent versus the dollar. The Swiss franc appreciated against all 16 of its most-traded counterparts as the central bank softened its stance on restraining the currency. Copper fell 2.5 percent, oil declined for the first day this week and gold advanced 0.7 percent. The MSCI World Index has gained for eight days, rallying 7 percent from its 10-month low on June 7 on evidence the global economy is weathering Europe’s debt crisis. Spain sold 3.5 billion euros ($4.3 billion) of 10-year and 30-year bonds at yields lower than the prevailing market rates, attracting bids worth as much as 2.45 times the securities on offer, assuaging concern that it would face difficulty meeting bond repayments. “The strong demand for Spanish bonds should help restore confidence,” Ciaran O’Hagan , a fixed-income strategist at Societe Generale SA in Paris, wrote in a research note today. The MSCI World’s eight-day advance is the longest stretch of gains since July 2009. European banks led the Stoxx 600 higher for a seventh day, extending the longest rally in nine months. Spain’s gauge of 35 stocks increased the most among 18 benchmark indexes in western Europe, rising 1.2 percent to a one-month high. Bonds Rally Spanish bonds rose, with the yield on the 10-year note falling from the highest level in almost two years. The yield dropped five basis points to 4.88 percent after earlier touching 5.04 percent. The difference in yield, or spread, between German and Spanish 10-year government bonds narrowed five basis points to 216 basis points. Spain is trying to convince investors it can cut the euro- region’s third-largest deficit, while propping up the country’s savings banks and lifting the economy out of a two-year slump. Spain, which faces 24.7 billion euros of maturing debt in July, had seen the risk premium on its 10-year bonds rise to a decade high on concern it may need to tap a European Union financial lifeline. BP Plc, battling to contain the worst oil spill in U.S. history, rallied 7.9 percent as the company scrapped dividends and pledged asset sales to meet President Barack Obama ’s demand for a $20 billion fund to help victims. The stock headed for the biggest daily gain since November 2008. Spreads Narrow BP’s European bonds rose, with the spread on its 1 billion euros ($1.2 billion) of 4.5 percent notes due November 2012 narrowing to 555 basis points, from 696 basis points yesterday, according to HSBC Holdings Plc prices on Bloomberg. Credit- default swaps to insure the company’s debt for one year tumbled 521 basis points to 476, CMA DataVision prices show. The gain in U.S. futures signaled stocks may rebound, after the S&P 500 yesterday slipped 0.1 percent. Futures pared gains after initial jobless claims increased by 12,000 to 472,000 in the week ended June 12, Labor Department figures showed. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected 450,000 claims, according to the median forecast. The number of people receiving unemployment insurance rose, while those getting extended benefits dropped. The cost of living in the U.S. dropped, adding to evidence the economic recovery is not stoking inflation. The 0.2 percent decline in the consumer price index was the biggest since December 2008 and followed April’s 0.1 percent decrease, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Excluding food and fuel, the so-called core rate increased 0.1 percent. The figures matched the median forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The Conference Board’s leading economic indicators, a measure of the outlook for the next three to six months, may have increased 0.4 percent in May, the 13th gain in the past 14 months, the survey showed. The report is set for 10 a.m. Another report today may show manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded this month. Euro, Franc The euro rose, mirroring the gain in the S&P 500 futures index. The currency advanced 0.4 percent to $1.2363, and 0.4 percent to 112.99 per yen. The yen was little changed at 91.30 versus the dollar. The Swiss franc approached an all-time high against the euro after the central bank softened its stance on fighting franc gains as deflation risks ease. The franc appreciated 1 percent against the euro to 1.3786 and 1.5 percent to 1.1141 per dollar. The Swiss National Bank, which has been buying foreign currencies since March 2009 to counter the threat of deflation, said today that those risks have “largely disappeared.” It also held the three-month Libor target rate at 0.25 percent at its quarterly meeting in Geneva. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.8 percent, climbing for an eighth day in the longest stretch of gains in two months. Benchmark indexes in Turkey, Indonesia, Egypt and Romania climbed more than 1 percent. Copper for delivery in three months declined $164.50 to $6,485.50 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Crude oil futures for July delivery fell 0.9 percent to $76.99 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold for August delivery climbed 1.3 percent to $1,246.30 an ounce. To contact the reporter on this story: Stephen Kirkland in London at skirkland@bloomberg.net ;

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McLaren Says Supercar Demand Buoyed by Europe as Austerity Sentiment Fades

June 15, 2010

By Steven Rothwell June 15 (Bloomberg) — McLaren Group said Europe will provide at least half the buyers for its 200-mile-per-hour, Ferrari -rivaling MP4-12C supercar as demand for luxury autos rebounds from last year’s recession. The 12C, which will cost about 150,000 pounds ($227,000), starts a 50-venue global promotional tour in Germany on June 17. About 2,500 expressions of interest have been received for the 1,000 cars to be produced next year, McLaren Automotive Managing Director Antony Sheriff said yesterday in an interview at the company’s base in Woking, near London. “For many people it didn’t seem like the right time to be seen driving this type of a car, but from the interest that’s out there it appears that they’re growing a bit sick of self- imposed austerity,” Sheriff said. “The waiting list will be pushing on towards a year almost immediately.” Britain and Germany will lead European sales, while a further one-third of orders will come from the U.S. and the rest from Asia and the Middle East, the executive said. McLaren, best-known for the most successful Formula One racing team after Ferrari, has selected 35 global dealerships to open in 2011, increasing to at least 70 by 2015 as the model range expands. Sheriff predicts that luxury and sports-car sales will jump about 35 percent this year after slumping during the recession. Private Viewing The 12C will be shown in a private viewing to dealers and registered potential clients in Dusseldorf this week, Zurich and Brussels next week and U.K. buyers in Woking later this month. The car, a rival to Ferrari’s 458 and the Lamborghini Gallardo, will make its public debut at the Goodwood Festival of Speed, held at a racing circuit in southern England in July. Jardine Motors Group will run McLaren’s London dealership, while Moll Sportwagen in Dusseldorf and Kamps Gruppe in Hamburg will sell the cars in Germany. Neubauer will act as distributer in Paris, Fassina Group in Milan, Schmohl AG in Zurich and Monaco Luxury Group in Monaco. “We feel we’re in a very comfortable position already, especially considering we haven’t started to market the car yet,” Sheriff said in the interview a day after McLaren F1 drivers Lewis Hamilton and Jensen Button finished first and second in the Canadian Grand Prix in Montreal. Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer , director of the Center for Automotive Research at the University of Duisburg-Essen, said he wouldn’t have expected Europe to lead sales of the new McLaren. ‘Belt Tightening’ “I cannot quite conceive how Europe, at the moment, can add considerable momentum here,” he said. “The region seems captured by a pronounced sense of belt tightening. It’s more the rich Chinese, mad American business people or impetuous sheiks that would opt for this kind of car.” In the U.S., the biggest supercar market, sales of autos costing more than $100,000 may jump 42 percent after falling 30 percent in 2009, industry researcher IHS Global Insight says. McLaren will initially have nine U.S. dealers at locations including San Francisco, Beverly Hills, Chicago, Miami, New York and Dallas, with one sales outlet in Toronto. While performance figures haven’t been released, the 12C is likely to have a faster top speed and swifter acceleration than the 458, Sheriff said from an office overlooking two Ferraris and a Porsche 911 used in comparison tests. The McLaren model takes its name from the MP4 designation given to all of the company’s race cars since 1981 — the latest being the MP4-25 driven by Hamilton and Button. The “C” indicates the road car’s carbon construction and the “12” is a reflection of “internal performance criteria” including weight, aerodynamics, power and down force, Sheriff said. Price Range The price of the successor to the McLaren F1, the world’s costliest car in the 1990s and the fastest at 240 mph (386 kilometers per hour), has yet to be finalized, but will be in the range of 125,000 pounds to 175,000 pounds, Sheriff said. McLaren intends to differentiate its dealerships from those of competitors by having all spare parts on site to ensure servicing can be carried out with the shortest possible delay. “The single thing that drives the satisfaction of the customer the most is the after-sales service,” Sheriff said. “We’ve worked with our dealers to create a system where just about every part of the car is in every dealership.” McLaren Automotive still plans to sell a stake to investors to raise funds, Sheriff said. Chairman Ron Dennis said in March he was looking for a buyer prepared to take a 48 percent holding and had hired Credit Suisse and HSBC Holdings in the Middle East. To contact the reporter on this story: Steven Rothwell in Woking, England, at srothwell@bloomberg.net

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Kerviel Tells Court He Didn’t Try to Evade Societe Generale Trading Limits

June 14, 2010

By Heather Smith and Carol Matlack June 15 (Bloomberg) — Jerome Kerviel didn’t try to evade trading controls at Societe Generale SA , he said during a trial over his role in unauthorized trades that cost the bank 4.9 billion euros ($6 billion). Kerviel told a Paris court his objective in faking hedges was to carry his real trading positions forward, “to be able to realize a gain for the bank.” Kerviel, 33, is charged with falsifying documents, computer hacking and abuse of trust in connection with the 2008 trading loss at France’s second-largest bank by market value. Judge Dominique Pauthe read a series of Kerviel’s trades indicating that his positions rose from 2.4 billion euros in April 2007 to 14.4 billion euros by November of that year. While he said he never explicitly told his supervisors about the trades, Kerviel said the scope of the trades bolstered his claims that the bank knew about his activities. “Did I get up one day and say I’ll go see a manager and tell him I’ve got 30 billion euros? The answer is no,” Kerviel said. As his positions grew larger, Kerviel said he was in a “spiral” and changed records on bank computers. Kerviel testified he entered the bank’s computerized control systems to alter details of some transactions, saying he did so to be sure the risk for each was accurately recorded. He denied that he altered data in another system, saying he didn’t have the log in information. ‘False Things’ “A lot of false things have been said,” Kerviel testified. “Traders didn’t have access to the back office control system.” Claire Dumas, a risk controller who is testifying on behalf of the bank, said Kerviel used friendships he made during the years he worked with the compliance and control group to avoid closer review of his actions. “There was a clear breach of the famous Chinese wall” between traders and controllers, Dumas said. “The chain of control was clearly misused.” Yesterday, a friend of Kerviel testified that he was “very tense, very tired” the January 2008 day Societe Generale uncovered the faked hedges. Valerie Rolland-Lesueur, who had worked with Kerviel at the bank’s compliance and control group, wiped her eyes and accepted a bottle of water from Kerviel while testifying about their friendship and the bank’s compliance techniques. “I found him very tense, very tired that day, but he was often tired,” Rolland-Lesueur told the court, saying she had coffee with him on Jan. 18, 2008, the day the bank spotted the faked trades. Faithful, Transparent Christophe Mianne managed the bank’s market activities at the time. He said he ordered his traders to follow three rules: “You must be faithful, you must be transparent, and you must respect the limits.” Kerviel knew he was going to be discovered, Mianne said. “And what did he do? He increased his position. He was running into a wall. And he accelerated,” Mianne said. Jean Veil , a lawyer for the bank, said Kerviel’s position that the bank looked away as long as he was winning was “incoherent” given the fact that for the first half of 2007, his positions were losing. “You’ll have to ask them,” Kerviel said when asked why his bosses didn’t act then. He faces as many as five years in jail and 375,000 euros in fines if found guilty. To contact the reporters on this story: Heather Smith in Paris at hsmith26@bloomberg.net ; Carol Matlack in Paris at carol_matlack@businessweek.com .

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Stocks, Commodities Advance on Outlook for Global Recovery Yen Declines

June 14, 2010

By Rita Nazareth and David Merritt June 14 (Bloomberg) — Stocks rose for a fifth day, the longest streak since October for the MSCI World Index, and commodities rallied on speculation government reports this week will show the global economic rebound is strengthening. The yen weakened and Treasuries fell. The MSCI World gauge of stocks in 24 developed nations gained 1.2 percent at 9:38 a.m. in New York and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 0.5 percent. Copper rallied for a fifth day in London, oil climbed 2.5 percent and sugar jumped for an eighth consecutive session. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed six basis points to 3.3 percent and the yen weakened against all 16 of its most-traded counterparts. The MSCI World advanced above the highest closing level since May 19 after industrial production increased more than economists forecast in April, rising 0.8 percent for an 11th month of gains, the European Union said today. The Federal Reserve may say on June 16 that output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities grew 0.9 percent last month after a 0.8 percent increase in April, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. “Stocks are so oversold it doesn’t take a whole lot to a get a rebound,” said E. William Stone , who oversees $104 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. “The U.S. economic recovery is in place. In Europe, we got positive industrial production data. On a day lacking negative news, it won’t be that hard to get a positive move.” Rally Extended The S&P 500 rose for a third day and added to gains from last week’s 2.5 percent rally, its best since March. A Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan report last week showed improving U.S. consumer sentiment. Alcoa Inc., the biggest U.S. aluminum producer, rose 1 percent and Exxon Mobil Corp. climbed 0.5 percent to pace an advance in commodity producers. Analysts have raised their average 2010 earnings growth forecasts for the S&P 500 to 32 percent from 26 percent at the end of March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The improving forecasts came even as the benchmark measure of U.S. equities retreated 13 percent between April 23 and June 4 amid concern some European nations will struggle to finance deficits. The S&P 500 is trading at about 13.4 times analysts’ earnings estimates for the next 12 months, near the lowest level since March 2009. “Fundamentals remain supportive for equities and equity volatility should revert to lower levels,” Nomura Holdings Inc.’s London-based strategist Ian Scott wrote in a note dated June 11. “The coming earnings announcement season should provide the catalyst for equity investors to focus on the value on offer and for equities to recover.” Fed Watch Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard , speaking in Tokyo today, said Europe’s debt crisis shouldn’t cause the Fed to postpone raising interest rates as the economy recovers. The central bank has kept its benchmark lending rate at a record-low range near zero since December 2008 to foster growth. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rallied 1 percent as 18 of 19 industry groups gained, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.5 percent to the highest in almost four weeks. BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group climbed more than 2.4 percent in London. Axa SA, Europe’s second-biggest insurer, rose 2.6 percent in Paris after saying it’s in talks to sell part of its U.K. life insurance unit to Clive Cowdery ’s Resolution Ltd. for 2.75 billion pounds ($4 billion). BP Slumps BP Plc , struggling to contain its oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, slipped 6.5 percent in London. The company faces a U.S. deadline today for a plan to raise oil-containment capacity as President Barack Obama demands an escrow account for damages claims related to the worst environmental disaster in the nation’s history. Developing-nation stocks rose for a fifth day, the longest winning streak in two months, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gaining 1.7 percent. Benchmark gauges in Taiwan, South Africa, Thailand and Qatar advanced more than 1 percent. South Korea’s won strengthened 2 percent against the dollar, the best performer among 26 emerging-market currencies, after policy makers said they will give banks time to meet a new ceiling on forward contracts, holding off from imposing controls on capital flows Copper for delivery in three months gained 2.1 percent to $6,614.50 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Prices have climbed for five days in a row, the longest advance since Jan. 4. Crude oil futures for July delivery increased $1.85 to $75.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. White, or refined, sugar for August delivery jumped as much as 0.7 percent to $527.40 a metric ton, the highest price since March, on the Liffe exchange in London. Prices have climbed for eight days, the longest advance since June 2008. Treasuries Drop The yield on the two-year Treasury note increased four basis points to 0.77 percent, and the 30-year bond yield rose eight basis points to 4.23 percent. German 10-year bunds fell, with the yield advancing seven basis points to 2.64 percent. The Belgian 10-year yield jumped 11 basis points to 3.47 percent. Flemish nationalists took the lead in Belgium ’s general elections, setting up coalition talks with French-speaking Socialists who face demands from Dutch-speaking voters to give more powers to the nation’s regions. The cost of protecting European corporate bonds from default fell, with the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of credit- default swaps on 50 mostly junk-rated companies declining 21 basis points to 575, the lowest in 1 1/2 weeks, according to Markit Group Ltd. The yen dropped 0.2 percent to 91.79 per dollar, and weakened 1.3 percent against the euro to 112.45. The dollar depreciated 1.1 percent to $1.2238 versus the euro. The pound climbed 1.4 percent to $1.4748 and gained 0.2 percent to 83.1 pence per euro after the Office for Budget Responsibility said Britain’s deficit will be 22 billion pounds ($32 billion) lower than the Treasury had forecast for 2010-2015. To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net ; David Merritt in London on dmerritt1@bloomberg.net

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Stocks Beating Bonds in Relative Value After S&ampP 500 Earnings Yields Surge

June 14, 2010

By Lynn Thomasson and Alexis Xydias June 14 (Bloomberg) — The biggest decline for global equities in 15 months has left stocks at the cheapest level relative to bonds since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., a sign that shares in the U.S. and Europe may rally. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies yielded 4.4 percentage points more in profit than the average interest rate on investment-grade bonds last week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Barclays Plc. The inflation-adjusted spread shows stocks are trading near the lowest prices compared with corporate earnings since November 2008 next to bonds. Cliff Remily at Thornburg Investment Management, which oversees $57 billion, and Barry Knapp of Barclays say the yield gap shows shares are too cheap to pass up with corporate profits forecast to rise the most in 16 years. While bears say the S&P 500 will tumble as Europe’s debt crisis curbs global growth, rising profit yields in stocks over bonds may provide a margin of safety for investors after $6.16 trillion was erased from equity markets worldwide since April 15. “From a valuation perspective, you’ve got a little bit of the best of both worlds,” said Leo Grohowski , who oversees $157 billion as chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management in Boston. “Bond yields are still low,” he said. “But earnings estimates are still at levels that are baking in an economic recovery. Something may have to give.” Biggest Drop U.S. stocks are dropping at the fastest rate since the S&P 500 bottomed at a 12-year low in March 2009 as European nations from Spain to Greece struggle to convince investors they can close their budget deficits. Even so, with a market value of $13.3 trillion, American shares exceed the combined worth of Japan, China, the U.K., Canada, France and Switzerland. Analysts have lifted their average 2010 earnings growth forecasts for the S&P 500 to 32 percent from 26 percent at the end of March even as the benchmark measure of U.S. equities retreated 13 percent between April 23 and June 4, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Futures on the index climbed 0.5 percent today. S&P 500 companies have reported per-share profit during the past year totaling 6.3 percent of the index’s current price, topping the average interest rate of 4.5 percent for investment grade corporate debt in the U.S., data from London-based Barclays show. Profit yields for S&P 500 companies averaged 6 percent since 1954, based on the median compiled by Bloomberg. The spread between the Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s income yield and the payout on 10-year German bunds widened to 4.5 percentage points last week, near the highest since 2008. Lehman Brothers American shares last had an advantage this big two months after New York-based Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008, intensifying the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Four months later, in March 2009, the S&P 500 began the biggest rally since the 1930s. Equities are also paying out more than government bonds. Ten-year Treasuries yield 5.3 percentage points less than the S&P 500 when adjusted for the annual increase in consumer prices, the most since March 2009. The S&P 500 rose 2.5 percent to 1,091.60 last week, the biggest increase since March, while the Stoxx Europe 600 climbed 2 percent to 249.46 for its third straight gain. Strategists at 13 securities firms say the S&P 500 will rally 16 percent from last week’s close to end the year at 1,268, according to the average estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. A chart pattern known as an inverted head and shoulders, centered around the March 2009 intraday low of 666.79, shows the index may reach about 1,240, data compiled by Bloomberg show. ‘Really Cheap’ “Against other asset classes, equities look really cheap,” said Knapp, head of U.S. equity strategy for Barclays in New York. “It could mean that we’re completely wrong on the inflation outlook, which means it’s going to get much worse, much faster. Or it could mean that stocks are decidedly cheap and people are overly cautious.” Interest rate increases from central banks and faster inflation may erode the yield advantage for equities, proving stock bulls wrong. Policy makers boosted benchmark borrowing costs in Brazil and New Zealand last week. The Federal Reserve’s target interest rate for overnight loans between banks is forecast to rise to 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2011, from the zero to 0.25 percent range that’s been in place since December 2008, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 65 economists. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said June 8 that policy makers may have to raise the rate before the economy returns to “full employment.” Greece, Spain While debt investors in Europe punish nations from Greece to Spain for deficit spending by pushing up bond yields, Treasury rates of all maturities have fallen to an average of about 2 percent from 2.75 percent a year ago even as the amount of marketable debt outstanding increased 20 percent to $7.96 trillion. David Macia , a money manager for Credit Andorra’s asset management unit overseeing about $6 billion, says the valuation gap between bonds and stocks will narrow because earnings estimates are too optimistic and benchmark interest rates are at a record low. “If you think profits are going to run at those levels, then the economy will likely be doing much better too, so we should see higher interest rates that will act as a counterbalance,” Macia said in an interview from Andorra La Vella, Andorra. “This is an anomaly created by rates that are too low. It’s a paradox.” Nuclear Power Remily, who manages the $4.86 billion Thornburg Investment Income Builder Fund that’s beaten 98 percent of rivals in the past five years, is finding value in Entergy Corp. , the second- largest operator of U.S. nuclear power plants. Shares of the New Orleans-based company yield 9.4 percent in profit from the past year and 4.5 percent in dividends. That compares with Entergy’s most recently traded corporate bond, its 5 percent note due in 2018 that yielded 4.75 percent on June 10, according to Trace. “It shouldn’t trade at that level of a risk premium because it’s a utility,” Remily said in an interview from Santa Fe, New Mexico. “You’re getting a business that grows slowly, but you’re not paying much for it. In general, we’re finding a lot of good opportunities.” Total SA , Europe’s second-largest oil producer by market value, was the fund’s sixth-biggest holding as of April 30. The shares have fallen 14 percent this year, pushing its earnings yield to 10 percent and dividend payout to 5.9 percent. The 3.125 note from the Paris-based company due in 2015 yields 2.85 percent, Bloomberg data show. Better Odds Fujitsu Ltd. , Japan’s biggest computer-services provider, has an earnings yield of 8.1 percent and pays a dividend of 5 yen a share twice a year. Tokyo-based Fujitsu’s 3 percent notes due in 2018 yield 1.18 percent, according to Bloomberg prices. “If earnings are not going to fall apart, equities are priced very attractively to bonds,” said Tristan Hanson , manager of asset allocation and strategy in Jersey, Channel Islands, at Ashburton Ltd., which oversees $1.7 billion. “The world’s not without risk, but the odds have moved in your favor.” To contact the reporters on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net ; Alexis Xydias in London at axydias@bloomberg.net .

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Stocks Beating Bonds in Relative Value After S&ampP 500 Earnings Yields Surge

June 14, 2010

By Lynn Thomasson and Alexis Xydias June 14 (Bloomberg) — The biggest decline for global equities in 15 months has left stocks at the cheapest level relative to bonds since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., a sign that shares in the U.S. and Europe may rally. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies yielded 4.4 percentage points more in profit than the average interest rate on investment-grade bonds last week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Barclays Plc. The inflation-adjusted spread shows stocks are trading near the lowest prices compared with corporate earnings since November 2008 next to bonds. Cliff Remily at Thornburg Investment Management, which oversees $57 billion, and Barry Knapp of Barclays say the yield gap shows shares are too cheap to pass up with corporate profits forecast to rise the most in 16 years. While bears say the S&P 500 will tumble as Europe’s debt crisis curbs global growth, rising profit yields in stocks over bonds may provide a margin of safety for investors after $6.16 trillion was erased from equity markets worldwide since April 15. “From a valuation perspective, you’ve got a little bit of the best of both worlds,” said Leo Grohowski , who oversees $157 billion as chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management in Boston. “Bond yields are still low,” he said. “But earnings estimates are still at levels that are baking in an economic recovery. Something may have to give.” Biggest Drop U.S. stocks are dropping at the fastest rate since the S&P 500 bottomed at a 12-year low in March 2009 as European nations from Spain to Greece struggle to convince investors they can close their budget deficits. Even so, with a market value of $13.3 trillion, American shares exceed the combined worth of Japan, China, the U.K., Canada, France and Switzerland. Analysts have lifted their average 2010 earnings growth forecasts for the S&P 500 to 32 percent from 26 percent at the end of March even as the benchmark measure of U.S. equities retreated 13 percent between April 23 and June 4, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Futures on the index climbed 0.5 percent today. S&P 500 companies have reported per-share profit during the past year totaling 6.3 percent of the index’s current price, topping the average interest rate of 4.5 percent for investment grade corporate debt in the U.S., data from London-based Barclays show. Profit yields for S&P 500 companies averaged 6 percent since 1954, based on the median compiled by Bloomberg. The spread between the Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s income yield and the payout on 10-year German bunds widened to 4.5 percentage points last week, near the highest since 2008. Lehman Brothers American shares last had an advantage this big two months after New York-based Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008, intensifying the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Four months later, in March 2009, the S&P 500 began the biggest rally since the 1930s. Equities are also paying out more than government bonds. Ten-year Treasuries yield 5.3 percentage points less than the S&P 500 when adjusted for the annual increase in consumer prices, the most since March 2009. The S&P 500 rose 2.5 percent to 1,091.60 last week, the biggest increase since March, while the Stoxx Europe 600 climbed 2 percent to 249.46 for its third straight gain. Strategists at 13 securities firms say the S&P 500 will rally 16 percent from last week’s close to end the year at 1,268, according to the average estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. A chart pattern known as an inverted head and shoulders, centered around the March 2009 intraday low of 666.79, shows the index may reach about 1,240, data compiled by Bloomberg show. ‘Really Cheap’ “Against other asset classes, equities look really cheap,” said Knapp, head of U.S. equity strategy for Barclays in New York. “It could mean that we’re completely wrong on the inflation outlook, which means it’s going to get much worse, much faster. Or it could mean that stocks are decidedly cheap and people are overly cautious.” Interest rate increases from central banks and faster inflation may erode the yield advantage for equities, proving stock bulls wrong. Policy makers boosted benchmark borrowing costs in Brazil and New Zealand last week. The Federal Reserve’s target interest rate for overnight loans between banks is forecast to rise to 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2011, from the zero to 0.25 percent range that’s been in place since December 2008, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 65 economists. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said June 8 that policy makers may have to raise the rate before the economy returns to “full employment.” Greece, Spain While debt investors in Europe punish nations from Greece to Spain for deficit spending by pushing up bond yields, Treasury rates of all maturities have fallen to an average of about 2 percent from 2.75 percent a year ago even as the amount of marketable debt outstanding increased 20 percent to $7.96 trillion. David Macia , a money manager for Credit Andorra’s asset management unit overseeing about $6 billion, says the valuation gap between bonds and stocks will narrow because earnings estimates are too optimistic and benchmark interest rates are at a record low. “If you think profits are going to run at those levels, then the economy will likely be doing much better too, so we should see higher interest rates that will act as a counterbalance,” Macia said in an interview from Andorra La Vella, Andorra. “This is an anomaly created by rates that are too low. It’s a paradox.” Nuclear Power Remily, who manages the $4.86 billion Thornburg Investment Income Builder Fund that’s beaten 98 percent of rivals in the past five years, is finding value in Entergy Corp. , the second- largest operator of U.S. nuclear power plants. Shares of the New Orleans-based company yield 9.4 percent in profit from the past year and 4.5 percent in dividends. That compares with Entergy’s most recently traded corporate bond, its 5 percent note due in 2018 that yielded 4.75 percent on June 10, according to Trace. “It shouldn’t trade at that level of a risk premium because it’s a utility,” Remily said in an interview from Santa Fe, New Mexico. “You’re getting a business that grows slowly, but you’re not paying much for it. In general, we’re finding a lot of good opportunities.” Total SA , Europe’s second-largest oil producer by market value, was the fund’s sixth-biggest holding as of April 30. The shares have fallen 14 percent this year, pushing its earnings yield to 10 percent and dividend payout to 5.9 percent. The 3.125 note from the Paris-based company due in 2015 yields 2.85 percent, Bloomberg data show. Better Odds Fujitsu Ltd. , Japan’s biggest computer-services provider, has an earnings yield of 8.1 percent and pays a dividend of 5 yen a share twice a year. Tokyo-based Fujitsu’s 3 percent notes due in 2018 yield 1.18 percent, according to Bloomberg prices. “If earnings are not going to fall apart, equities are priced very attractively to bonds,” said Tristan Hanson , manager of asset allocation and strategy in Jersey, Channel Islands, at Ashburton Ltd., which oversees $1.7 billion. “The world’s not without risk, but the odds have moved in your favor.” To contact the reporters on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net ; Alexis Xydias in London at axydias@bloomberg.net .

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Tanker Rates Poised to Surge 43% With China Oil Shipping Buoying Frontline

June 14, 2010

By Alaric Nightingale June 14 (Bloomberg) — Supertanker rates are poised to surge to a two-year high by December as China’s demand for oil sends ships the equivalent of 11 extra times around the globe in a month. The 31 percent jump in China’s imports increased return journeys for supertankers to about 1.13 million miles in April, or 284,000 miles more than a year ago, based on customs data and voyage lengths. Daily rates may reach $100,000 by December, said Rikard Vabo , an analyst at Fearnley Fonds ASA, whose November recommendation to buy shares of Frontline Ltd., the biggest supertanker operator, earned 49 percent. His prediction for freight is 43 percent higher than the June 11 price of $70,025. China, the engine of the global economic recovery, is going further to get oil, with Angola a bigger provider than Saudi Arabia this year. Longer journeys combined with what the International Energy Agency says will be record consumption in 2010 are driving shipping demand even as forward freight agreements show prices will average $44,944 for the third quarter and $45,466 in the fourth. “China is the U.S. of the 1960s and Japan of the 1970s as its thirst for oil grows,” said Charlie Fowle , chairman of London-based shipbroker Galbraith’s Ltd. “As China strengthens ties with countries such as Angola and Venezuela, in addition to Middle Eastern suppliers, it increasingly means tighter supply in the tanker market.” Chinese Expansion The nation’s economy will expand 10.1 percent this year, more than three times the pace of the U.S., the world’s largest energy consumer, according to as many as 87 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Fueling that growth will require an extra 669,000 barrels of oil daily, the Paris-based IEA predicts, equal to more than two additional supertanker cargoes a week. China is already the biggest user of commodities from copper to coal, spurring a rush for raw materials across the globe. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said in April that China would lend $20 billion and form a venture to pump crude. Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, signed a $10 billion-loan accord and a supply contract last year. China National Petroleum Corp. has operations in 29 countries from Equatorial Guinea to Sudan. Oil purchases from Angola reached 4.29 million metric tons in April, about 70 percent more than two years earlier, customs data show. Saudi Arabia supplied 3.09 million tons. The average journey from Angola to China takes more than 33 days, compared with 21 days from Saudi Arabia, according to the distances.com website. Venezuela to China takes almost 40 days. Next Destination Seven supertankers off Angola on June 11 came from Asia, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. One arrived from the Middle East and another from the Caribbean. Two were signaling China as their next destination, with the rest yet to declare where they would sail. “China’s craving for energy is by far the biggest contributor to a continued good supertanker market,” said Per Mansson , the managing director of shipbroker Nor Ocean Stockholm AB. “There is an increased interest from Chinese charterers to find transportation much further away from the Persian Gulf.” Extra days delivering crude, or making the return journey, are sapping tanker supply as deliveries from yards accelerate. Fifty-four supertankers joined the fleet last year, the most since 1976, and another 79 will be added this year, according to Clarkson Research Services Ltd., a unit of the world’s biggest shipbroker. There are now 527 supertankers, Lloyd’s Register- Fairplay data show. Oil Demand Slumped Shipping lines ordered vessels as rates on the Saudi Arabia-to-Japan route, the industry’s benchmark, rose as high as $177,000 a day in July 2008, before plunging as low as $1,246 by September last year as oil demand slumped. Crude oil plunged to $32.40 a barrel in December 2008, after reaching a record $147.27 five months earlier. Shipping rates were last at $100,000 in July 2008. Frontline said last month it needs $31,100 a day to break even on vessels known in the industry as very large crude carriers, or VLCCs. The Bermuda-based company had 45 percent of its fleet trading in the spot market last year, with the balance on longer-term charters. Frontline will earn $3.09 a share this year, according to the mean of 20 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The company reported earnings per share of $1.32 last year and its shares rose 40 percent this year in Oslo trading. Overseas Shipholding Group , the biggest U.S.-based tanker owner, said in February that it was putting more than 80 percent of its fleet in the spot market. The New York-based company will return to profit in the third quarter, ending five consecutive quarterly losses, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. The shares fell 7.8 percent this year in New York trading. January Prediction While rates rose 74 percent this year, they fell as low as $22,672 on Feb. 18. Prices averaged $46,454 this quarter, more than the $28,758 predicted by the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 13 analysts, traders and shipbrokers in April. Crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange more than doubled since the end of 2008 and the World Bank said on June 9 the global economy would expand 3.3 percent this year, up from a January prediction of 2.7 percent. A slowdown in global economic growth may damp tanker prices. International Monetary Fund Deputy Managing Director Naoyuki Shinohara said June 9 the risks to the global economic outlook have “risen significantly” and policy makers have limited room to provide support to growth. The Washington-based World Bank, while raising its forecast, acknowledged that government budgets were strained. Global Equities As much as $7.7 trillion was wiped off the value of global equities from mid-April to the end of last month amid mounting concern that Europe’s debt crisis would curb the region’s economic growth. China wants to cool real-estate speculation and the country’s Federation of Logistics and Purchasing reported June 1 that manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in May than economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimated. “China has been good for the VLCC trade, but these trade surges can’t continue,” said Martin Stopford , managing director of Clarkson Research. “You get a shift in regional trading patterns, then they tend to slow or reverse.” China cut oil imports to the lowest in four months in May, according to preliminary customs data released June 10. The tanker fleet won’t be counting on China alone to bolster rates. The explosion on a rig in the Gulf of Mexico leased by London-based BP Plc in April caused the worst oil spill in U.S. history. Increased environmental concerns may hasten the withdrawal of single-hulled supertankers, deemed by the European Union in 2003 to be “more accident prone.” Deliveries From Yards Eleven percent of the global supertanker fleet is fitted with a single hull, according to Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay. A global phase-out started this year and the International Maritime Organization ban takes full effect in 2015. “Utilization rates are getting to a point where a lot of these ships are effectively out of the market,” said Jeff McGee, an analyst at London-based Simpson, Spence & Young Ltd., the world’s second-largest shipbroker. Fewer single-hulled ships competing for business will offset deliveries of new vessels and the fleet may even shrink this year, he said. Renewed demand for shipping may also bolster orders for new vessels. Shipbuilders led by Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., the world’s biggest, won about $700 million of contracts to build supertankers this year, according to Clarkson Research data. Shares of the Ulsan, South Korea-based company rose 30 percent in Seoul trading since January, compared with a 0.5 percent advance in the country’s benchmark Kospi Index . Distances Traveled The most important measure of demand for ships is so-called ton-miles, or the amount of cargo multiplied by how far the vessels have to travel, because it aggregates the two main sources of demand, cargoes and distance, according to Nor Ocean’s Mansson. The calculation for deliveries to China was determined by multiplying imports in tons by the distances traveled from each supplier to the east-coast port of Qingdao. Some countries were excluded because they may also deliver by land. It assumed all voyages were by supertankers on return journeys. Oil is also carried on smaller ships , some vessels may go to other Chinese ports or travel to different regions for their next cargoes and not all carriers will make the return journey empty. “We see China as very, very important for ton-mile in the future,” said Erik Folkeson Jensen , an analyst at Lorentzen & Stemoco AS in Oslo, who expects rates to reach $88,000 before the end of the year. “China is a large part of the reason why the tanker market is as good as it is.” To contact the reporter on this story: Alaric Nightingale in London at Anightingal1@bloomberg.net

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Axa Says U.K. Life Unit Sale Price to Resolution Will Be About $4 Billion

June 14, 2010

By Kevin Crowley and Fabio Benedetti-Valentini June 14 (Bloomberg) — Axa SA , Europe’s second-biggest insurer, said it’s in talks to sell part of its U.K. life insurance unit to Clive Cowdery’s Resolution Ltd. for 2.75 billion pounds ($4 billion). Under the proposed transaction, Axa would receive 2.25 billion pounds in cash and the remainder in senior deferred consideration notes, the Paris-based company said in a statement today. Resolution, the investment firm Cowdery started two years ago, plans to fund the purchase through a 2 billion-pound rights offer, the company said in a separate statement. European insurers including Axa and Prudential Plc are seeking to free up capital reserves used to back policies in slower-growing markets like the U.K. to fund growth in Asia, where margins are wider. Resolution paid 1.9 billion pounds for Britain’s Friends Provident Plc last year, the first of as many as four purchases it’s planning as it aims to merge U.K. life insurers and sell the enlarged group back to investors by 2013. “For Axa, the U.K. wasn’t the most successful and profitable country,” said Karim Bertoni , who helps manage $18.5 billion at Banque Syz & Co. in Geneva. “Resolution is very committed to gain market share in the U.K., and a deal would allow Axa to move some capital to other regions with better profitability.” Axa’s life insurance division is the eighth-biggest in the U.K., according to data compiled by the Association of British Insurers. Axa plans to keep its wealth management and non-life insurance operations in the U.K. Wealth Management Axa’s U.K. life and savings operations posted a 33 million- euro ($39 million) net loss in 2009, compared with a 257 million-euro profit a year earlier. Axa’s gross annual life and savings sales in the U.K. fell 22 percent to 2.78 billion euros as investment fees and premiums dropped. Axa SA is trying to acquire Axa Asia Pacific Holdings Ltd.’s operations in eight Asian countries, including China, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia. The insurer already owns 54 percent of the Melbourne-based company. Resolution closed 0.2 pence, or 0.3 percent, lower at 60.7 pence in London trading on June 11, valuing the company at 1.46 billion pounds. Axa rose 2.3 percent to 13.115 euros in Paris trading, giving the company a market value of 30 billion euros. John Tiner Resolution Chief Executive Officer John Tiner , who served as CEO of the Financial Services Authority from 2003 to 2007, said in March he aims to make two or more purchases, adding to the Friends Provident purchase. After creating a life insurer worth 10 billion pounds, Tiner intends to sell it by 2013, he said. Resolution said in a June 11 statement it plans to consolidate the U.K. businesses of Axa, France’s biggest insurer, with its Friends Provident operations. There was no certainty of a sale, it said. “The combination of the two businesses would create one of the U.K.’s largest providers of protection products and group pensions services,” Resolution said. Resolution posted net income of 1.16 billion pounds in 2009, compared with a 1 million-pound loss in 2008. First-quarter insurance sales rose 19 percent to 178 million pounds, as interest rates at record lows pushed British savers to seek higher returns in pension and savings products rather than hold their assets in cash. Standard Life Plc , St James’s Place Plc and Legal & General Group Plc, which also sell life insurance in the U.K., all posted higher-than-expected sales in the first quarter. To contact the reporter on this story: Kevin Crowley in London at kcrowley1@bloomberg.net Jon Menon in London at jmenon1@bloomberg.net

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Axa Said in Talks to Sell U.K. Life Unit to Resolution for $4.1 Billion

June 13, 2010

By Kevin Crowley and Fabio Benedetti-Valentini June 13 (Bloomberg) — Axa SA , Europe’s second-biggest insurer, is in talks to sell most of its U.K. life insurance unit to Clive Cowdery’s Resolution Ltd. for about 2.8 billion pounds ($4.1 billion), two people briefed on the talks said. The discussions are at an advanced stage and both companies are aiming to reach an agreement by the end of the month, said the people, who declined to be named because the talks are private. Resolution, the investment firm Cowdery started two years ago, is likely to fund the purchase by selling new stock to existing shareholders, one of the people said. European insurers including Axa and Prudential Plc are seeking to free up capital reserves used to back policies in slower-growing markets like the U.K. to fund growth in Asia, where margins are wider. Resolution paid 1.9 billion pounds for Britain’s Friends Provident Plc last year, the first of as many as four purchases it’s planning as it aims to merge U.K. life insurers and sell the enlarged group back to investors by 2013. “For Axa, the U.K. wasn’t the most successful and profitable country,” said Karim Bertoni , who helps manage $18.5 billion at Banque Syz & Co. in Geneva. “Resolution is very committed to gain market share in the U.K., and a deal would allow Axa to move some capital to other regions with better profitability.” Axa’s life insurance division is the eighth-biggest in the U.K., according to data compiled by the Association of British Insurers. Resolution’s offer values the unit at 80 percent of embedded value, a measure insurers use to calculate future revenue from policies, one of the people said. Resolution bought Friends Provident for 65 percent of its embedded value. Wealth Management Officials at both companies declined to comment. Resolution may seek to raise as much as 2.2 billion pounds in a rights offering to fund the purchase, the Sunday Express reported, without saying where it obtained the information. Resolution is seeking to buy Axa’s with-profits fund, one of the people said. The Paris-based insurer would go on selling unit-linked funds, wealth management products and non-life insurance in the U.K., one of the people said. Axa’s U.K. life and savings operations posted a 33 million- euro ($39 million) net loss in 2009, compared with a 257 million-euro profit a year earlier. Axa’s gross annual life and savings sales in the U.K. fell 22 percent to 2.78 billion euros as investment fees and premiums dropped. John Tiner Axa SA is trying to acquire Axa Asia Pacific Holdings Ltd.’s operations in eight Asian countries, including China, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia. The insurer already owns 54 percent of the Melbourne-based company. Resolution closed 0.2 pence, or 0.3 percent, lower at 60.7 pence in London trading on June 11, valuing the company at 1.46 billion pounds. Axa rose 2.3 percent to 13.115 euros in Paris trading, giving the company a market value of 30 billion euros. Resolution Chief Executive Officer John Tiner , who served as CEO of the Financial Services Authority from 2003 to 2007, said in March he aims to make two or more purchases, adding to the Friends Provident purchase. After creating a life insurer worth 10 billion pounds, Tiner intends to sell it by 2013, he said. Resolution said in a June 11 statement it plans to consolidate the U.K. businesses of Axa, France’s biggest insurer, with its Friends Provident operations. There was no certainty of a sale, it said. “The combination of the two businesses would create one of the U.K.’s largest providers of protection products and group pensions services,” Resolution said. Resolution posted net income of 1.16 billion pounds in 2009, compared with a 1 million-pound loss in 2008. First-quarter insurance sales rose 19 percent to 178 million pounds, as interest rates at record lows pushed British savers to seek higher returns in pension and savings products rather than hold their assets in cash. Standard Life Plc , St James’s Place Plc and Legal & General Group Plc, which also sell life insurance in the U.K., all posted higher-than-expected sales in the first quarter. To contact the reporter on this story: Kevin Crowley in London at kcrowley1@bloomberg.net Jon Menon in London at jmenon1@bloomberg.net

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Resolution Says It’s in Talks to Buy Axa’s U.K. Life Insurance Business

June 11, 2010

By Jason Scott and Mark Rohner June 12 (Bloomberg) — Resolution Ltd. , the U.K. buyout firm founded by Clive Cowdery , said it’s in talks to buy Axa SA’s British operations as part of a plan to build a life insurer worth about 10 billion pounds ($14.6 billion). “This transaction would result in the acquisition by Resolution of the majority of Axa ’s life assurance operations in the U.K.,” Guernsey, Channel Islands-based Resolution said in an e-mailed statement yesterday, without giving a monetary figure on a potential deal. The Telegraph reported yesterday that Cowdery was offering 2.5 billion pounds for the business. The bid is part of Chief Executive Officer John Tiner’s plan to increase Resolution’s British life insurance holdings over 18 months as larger financial institutions, stung by recession, offload assets. Resolution, which completed an initial public offering in December 2008, hasn’t added to the purchase of Friends Provident, which was agreed in August last year. Resolution closed 0.2 pence, or 0.33 percent, lower at 60.7 pence in London trading yesterday, valuing the firm at 1.46 billion pounds. Axa rose 2.3 percent to 13.115 euros in Paris trading, giving the company a market value of 30 billion euros ($36.3 billion). Tiner’s Strategy Tiner , who served as CEO of the Financial Services Authority from 2003 to 2007, said in March he aims to make two or more purchases, adding to the acquisition of Friends Provident. After creating a life insurer worth 10 billion pounds, Tiner intends to sell it by 2013, he said. Resolution intends to consolidate the U.K. businesses of Axa, France’s biggest insurer, with its Friends Provident operations, yesterday’s statement said. There was no certainty of a sale, it said. “The combination of the two businesses would create one of the U.K.’s largest providers of protection products and group pensions services,” Resolution said. A purchase would include Axa’s British businesses in protection and annuities and its group pensions business, it said. Resolution’s 2009 full-year net income was 1.16 billion pounds, compared with a 1 million-pound loss in 2008. Its first-quarter insurance sales rose 19 percent to 178 million pounds, as record low interest rates push British savers, cautious due to the recession , to seek higher returns in pension and savings products rather than hold their assets in cash. Better Days Standard Life Plc , St James’s Place Plc and Legal & General Group Plc, which also sell life insurance in the U.K., all posted higher-than-expected sales in the first quarter. Friends Provident’s so-called embedded value, a measure used by insurers to measure the worth of future payments from policyholders, is about 3.1 billion pounds, Tiner said in March. Friends Provident’s operating profit before tax was 272 million pounds in 2009, compared with a 246 million-pound loss a year earlier. Axa’s first-quarter revenue rose 1.1 percent, with Chief Executive Officer Henri de Castries saying Europe’s second- largest insurer by market value was “focused on further improving the profitability of our operations.” Under de Castries’s tenure as CEO, Axa sold its Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Inc. investment bank to Credit Suisse Group AG in 2000 for $13.4 billion, while the French insurer continued to expand through acquisitions. In 2006, Axa bought Credit Suisse’s Winterthur unit for 7.9 billion euros to gain a leading position in the Swiss insurance market and 13 million clients in 17 countries from Spain to China. Axa’s net income in 2009 rose to 3.61 billion euros from 923 million euros a year earlier. To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Scott in Perth at jscott14@bloomberg.net ; Mark Rohner in Washington at mrohner@bloomberg.net

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Stocks, Commodities Jump on Economic Growth Outlook Euro Gains

June 10, 2010

By Nikolaj Gammeltoft and Claudia Carpenter June 10 (Bloomberg) — Stocks rallied, sending benchmark indexes to their biggest gains in two weeks, after economic reports from China, Japan and Australia showed accelerating growth. The euro strengthened a third day, gold fell and Treasuries extended losses after a 30-year bond sale. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 3 percent to 1,086.84 at 4 p.m. in New York and the MSCI World Index advanced 2.4 percent, the biggest gains since May 27. The euro surged 1.1 percent to $1.2114, while the New Zealand dollar strengthened versus all 16 of its most-traded peers and Australia’s dollar rose against all but the so-called kiwi. Oil climbed to a four- week high. Ten-year Treasury yields jumped 14 basis points to 3.32 percent, the biggest increase since May 27. The largest rise in China exports in six years bolstered confidence the fastest-growing major economy will continue to fuel the global recovery. Japan expanded at an annualized 5 percent rate in the first quarter. Demand for riskier assets also was stoked as the European Central Bank raised its euro- region growth forecast and planned to extend offerings of cash and keep buying government bonds to fight the debt crisis. “China’s export numbers are looking better than expected and the European situation is beginning to stabilize so investors are less worried,” said Michael Holland , who oversees more than $4 billion as chairman of Holland & Co. in New York. “Plus the selloff yesterday didn’t make a lot of economic sense so that set us up for a pop today.” Yesterday’s Losses Erased The S&P 500 fell 0.6 percent yesterday as a late-day slide wiped out an early 1.5 percent rally. Today’s gains came even as more Americans than anticipated filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, a sign firings remain elevated. Initial jobless claims dropped by 3,000 to 456,000, Labor Department figures showed. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected 450,000 claims, according to the median forecast. Caterpillar Inc., Chevron Corp. and American Express Co. climbed at least 4.8 percent to lead the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 273.28 points, or 2.8 percent, to 10,172.53 after the gauge closed below 10,000 for four straight days. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. fell 2.2 percent to $133.77, the lowest in more than a year, on reports that the Securities and Exchange Commission is probing the firm’s $2 billion Hudson Mezzanine collateralized debt obligation. The stock posted the biggest of only four declines in the S&P 500. BP Defended at JPMorgan BP Plc fell 6.7 percent 365.5 pence in London, a seven-year low, while its U.S. shares rallied 12 percent as JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the recent rout in the stock has overshot the potential damage from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. The stock has tumbled 46 percent in New York and 44 percent in London since the April 20 explosion at its Deepwater Horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico triggered the worst oil spill in U.S. history. BP bonds and credit-default swaps are trading as if the energy company has lost its investment-grade rating as costs mount from the spill. Almost 10 shares rose for every one that fell on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, which rallied 1.6 percent. Automakers and construction companies were the biggest gainers among 19 industry groups on the European benchmark index. Daimler AG rallied 3.1 percent in Frankfurt after forecasting Mercedes-Benz sales will advance at twice the rate of the overall market on demand from China. Lafarge SA, the world’s biggest cement maker, gained 5.1 percent in Paris after Citigroup Inc. recommended buying the shares. Asian Shares Rally Asian stocks rose the most in a week, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumping 1.1 percent. Commonwealth Bank of Australia gained 1.3 percent in Sydney. Dentsu Inc., Japan’s biggest advertising agency, rose 2.6 percent in Tokyo. Developing-nation shares climbed for a third day, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index advancing 1.6 percent as stocks rallied from Brazil to Taiwan. Chinese shipments abroad climbed 48.5 percent in May from a year earlier, more than the 32 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg survey, and separate figures showed a jump in property prices. Australian employers added workers in May for a third straight month, the statistics bureau said in Sydney today. The number of people employed gained 26,900 from April, compared with the median estimate of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News of a 20,000 increase. The euro’s gain against the dollar brought it to an almost one-week high and the shared currency strengthened 1.2 percent to 110.68 yen. The ECB forecast the currency region’s economy will expand around 1 percent in 2010 compared with a previous forecast of around 0.8 percent. It will grow about 1.2 percent in 2011, lower than an earlier projection of around 1.5 percent because of weaker domestic demand. China on Euro The 16-nation euro will survive Europe’s debt crisis, the head of China’s national pension fund said, according to a report by Reuters. Dai Xianglong , chairman of the National Council for Social Security Fund, also said China faces the risk of losses on its currency reserves because of growing debt in the U.S., according to the report. The ECB said it will continue buying state debt and pumping unlimited funds into the banking system as part of a strategy by European policy makers to stop the euro region from breaking apart. The euro extended its advance as Germany’s highest constitutional court rejected an attempt by a lawmaker to preliminarily block the nation from granting guarantees as part of its share in the euro-area rescue fund. “The ECB is addressing liquidity issues, there’s news that the German court has rejected efforts to block Germany from participating in the guarantees of the stabilization mechanism,” said Marc Chandler , global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York. “There are some rumors that China may move on its currency and that may also be helping the euro trade higher.” Dollar Weakens The dollar weakened against 14 of its 16 most-traded peers and the Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against six major trading partners, lost 1 percent to 87.047. Oil rallied 1.5 percent to a four-week high of $75.48 a barrel in New York. Copper for delivery in July rose 0.4 percent to $2.8625 a pound in New York. The S&P GSCI Index of commodities rose 1.3 percent, a fourth-straight gain, to a four- week high of 495.111. Gold for August delivery dropped 0.6 percent to $1,222.20 an ounce in New York as the rally in stocks and the euro reduced demand for the precious metal as a safe haven. Treasuries extended losses after the U.S. sold $13 billion of 30-year bonds. Yields on U.S. debt increased before the auction, helping to boost demand. The 30-year bond declined more than 1 point after the sale on eased concern Europe’s sovereign- debt crisis would slow the worldwide recovery. Spanish bonds rose as the government auctioned three-year notes, with demand higher than at an auction of similar-maturity securities in April. The yield on the 10-year bond fell 10 basis points to 4.47 percent, with the extra yield investors demand to hold the securities instead of benchmark German bunds narrowing 14 basis points to 186. The yield on the 10-year bund was 4 basis points higher at 2.6 percent. To contact the reporters for this story: Nikolaj Gammeltoft in New York at ngammeltoft@bloomberg.net ; Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net

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Renault Is Said to Appoint Thormann as Finance Chief to Replace Moulongue

June 10, 2010

By Laurence Frost June 10 (Bloomberg) — Renault SA named Dominique Thormann , head of the French carmaker’s sales-financing unit, to replace Chief Financial Officer Thierry Moulonguet effective from next month. Thormann, 55, will become a member of the executive committee, reporting directly to Chief Executive Officer Carlos Ghosn , Renault said in a statement today. Moulonguet is stepping down for personal reasons, according to a person who asked not to be identified because the matter is private. Thormann served for five years as senior vice president at Nissan Motor Co. , Renault’s 44 percent-owned Japanese affiliate, before taking over last July as head of the RCI Banque financing division. A graduate of Baltimore-based Johns Hopkins University, Thormann began his career as a credit analyst with Chase Manhattan Bank in New York and joined RCI Banque a decade later. He ran Renault’s investor relations from 1994 to 1999. “Renault’s strategy is seen as being driven by Carlos Ghosn,” said Mike Tyndall , London-based automotive specialist with Nomura Securities, in a phone interview. “People will see it as an opportunity to get a new perspective on the company’s financial communication.” Renault rose 1.14 euros, or 3.9 percent, to 30.42 euros in Paris. The stock has fallen 16 percent this year, valuing the company at 9 billion euros ($10.9 billion). Moulonguet, 59, attended France’s elite Ecole Nationale de l’Administration and served as a high-ranking civil servant before joining Renault in 1991. Along with Ghosn and Patrick Pelata , who is now Renault’s chief operating officer, Moulonguet was sent to Japan to steer Nissan away from looming bankruptcy after the French carmaker took its initial controlling stake in 1999. To contact the reporter on this story: Laurence Frost in Paris at lfrost4@bloomberg.net .

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Bearded Women Challenge French `Boys Club’ Corporate Boardrooms in Paris

June 10, 2010

By Tara Patel June 10 (Bloomberg) — A group of women wearing fake beards stormed the podium at Veolia Environnement SA ’s shareholders’ meeting in Paris last month, challenging Chairman Henri Proglio over the gender makeup of his overwhelmingly masculine board. “Is it really wise to allow women to define the strategy of a company, a task requiring intelligence, an ability to react and cool-headedness?” an activist of the feminist lobby La Barbe, or “The Beard,” said to the packed hall, taunting the French water utility’s board for having only one woman member out of 17. The activist didn’t want to be identified, in line with the group’s internal policies. The stunt is becoming a common sight during the current season of French annual general meetings as companies from Veolia to insurer Axa SA are forced to address the “boys club” reputation of their corporate suites. French lawmakers are considering legislation that would require at least 40 percent of companies’ boards to be made up of women within six years or risk not being able to add any new male director. The law, adopted in January by the lower house of parliament, is being considered by the Senate. If it’s voted in, France would join Norway to put in place legally binding quotas to boost the number of female corporate directors. In Spain, a 2007 law recommended that companies fill 40 percent of their board seats with women by 2015. “The quota thing is fine,” French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said in an interview. “I used to be against quotas; you stand on your own merits and you should be recognized as such. But things are moving too slowly. There will be a lot expected of women simply because there will be resentment on the part of those who will have to make space.” Seeking Loopholes Women make up 9.5 percent of 103 French boards, far short of the 40 percent that will be required, according to a March report by GovernanceMetrics International , a corporate governance research agency in New York. That compares with 8.5 percent among 405 companies in the U.K. and 12.2 percent among 1,754 companies in the U.S. In Norway, where the proportion was 6.8 percent when quotas were proposed in 2002, the number now is 34 percent among 23 companies. French companies are scrambling to outline plans to raise the proportion of women directors. Gas utility GDF Suez SA may fix its gender imbalance by shrinking the board size, CEO Gerard Mestrallet told shareholders last month. Total SA , France’s largest company, named two men to its board in May, while pledging to raise women representatives to 18 percent next year by adding a third female director to its 17-member board. PPR SA named three women to its board last month, bringing their number to 29 percent. The company will seek to reach gender parity on the board, CEO Francois Pinault said. Wives’ Club The threat of penalties has propelled companies to act, bringing some unlikely women to the board of some of France’s biggest companies — the wives of prominent French men. Over the last two months, Florence Woerth, wife of Labor Minister Eric Woerth , became a director at luxury goods-maker Hermes SA; Nicole Dassault , wife of industrialist Serge Dassault , joined the Dassault Aviation board; Amelie Oudea- Castera , wife of Societe Generale SA CEO Frederic Oudea , took a seat on the board of Lagardere SCA, while Brigitte Longuet, wife of French Senator Gerard Longuet , went to Canal Plus. The most high-profile appointment came with the April nomination of 77-year-old Bernadette Chirac , wife of former President Jacques Chirac , to the board of the world’s largest luxury goods maker, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA. LVMH CEO Bernard Arnault surprised shareholders with the nomination, after 80-year-old Russian historian Helene Carrere d’Encausse backed out. ‘Quality,’ And Quantity The maker of Veuve Cliquot champagne and Fendi purses needed a nominee who was well-known, brought a “feminine eye” to products and understood countries where LVMH operates, Arnault said at the company’s shareholders’ meeting. Until Chirac joined the board seat, Arnault’s daughter Delphine was the only other woman on LVMH ’s 17-member board. “The choice was astonishing,” said Viviane Neiter , a consultant on corporate governance who queried Arnault at the meeting. “There have been recent nominations at French companies that don’t seem altogether helpful.” Neiter, who along with Miriam Garnier of the European Professional Women’s Network, lobbies to get women into boardrooms, says boosting the number of women directors should be used as a way to improve corporate governance in France rather than to try and fill the quota with unthreatening, politically connected women. No Dearth “It would be a huge mistake if boards made quantitative changes to their composition without improving quality,” Garnier said. “There is the potential to make cosmetic changes by adding women with political considerations in mind. This would be a terrible distortion of the law.” About 170 female directors would have to be found within six years to meet the quota requirement for CAC 40 companies and 1,200 for those in the larger SBF120 index, according to Marc Lamy , who heads executive search company Boyden France. “This is not Mission Impossible for head hunters,” he said. “There’s no dearth of candidates.” Company boards have long been criticized for being cozy clubs made up of men from France’s elite administrative, business and engineering schools, known as Grandes Ecoles, who are often CEOs of other big companies. Senate Composition At France’s benchmark CAC 40 Index companies, where boards are about 12 percent female, 98 directors, or 22 percent of the total, hold 43 percent of the voting rights, according to a study published in October by Ernst & Young and France Proxy, which call the group “the biggest network of influence in French capitalism.” During the debate of the planned law in France’s National Assembly, some deputies bemoaned their lack of credibility in meddling in French boards when they have themselves failed to carry out a decade-old law to have an equal number of men and women running for parliament. About 19 percent of deputies are female and parties pay millions of euros in fines rather than reach parity. The opposition Socialist Party wants included in the law limits on the number of board seats one person can hold to make more places available to women. Girls’ Club A parliamentary report recommended these limits last year as a way to improve French corporate governance. The idea was quashed by Marie-Jo Zimmerman, a lawmaker of the ruling Union for a Popular Movement party, who said it would also prevent experienced women directors from being on multiple boards. Areva SA CEO Anne Lauvergeon sits on the boards of Total, GDF Suez and Vodafone Group Plc, while Patricia Barbizet , vice chairman of PPR, is on the boards of Air France-KLM Group, Bouygues SA and Total. “There is a need to find new candidates to get out of the very, very old boys’ club in France,” Lamy said. “We don’t want to end up creating an old girls’ club.” To contact the reporter on this story: Tara Patel in Paris at tpatel2@bloomberg.net

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MTN’s Nhleko Ends Orascom Talks in Fourth Failed Transaction in Two Years

June 9, 2010

By Nicky Smith June 10 (Bloomberg) — MTN Group Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Phuthuma Nhleko failed to close his fourth deal in two years, frustrating the South African company’s ambitions of entering new markets to secure sales growth. MTN, Africa’s largest mobile-phone company, yesterday said it ended talks with Weather Investments S.p.A to buy $10 billion of assets of Orascom Telecom Holding SAE. The inability to complete the transaction caps more than 24 months during which Johannesburg-based MTN sought purchases to offset increasing competition and price-regulation pressures at home. “Management must now focus their attention on the assets that they have,” said Bruce Main , a fund manager at Ivy Asset Management which holds MTN shares. Nhleko, 50, who has said he will leave the company in March after eight years in the post, has tried to expand the company’s business in emerging markets through mergers or acquisitions. He has sought to add new markets to its 21 businesses across the Middle East and Africa as some of the world’s largest operators, including Vodafone Group Plc , seek expansion in Africa to counter slowing revenue growth in Europe. MTN said April 28 that it was negotiating to buy all or part of Orascom Telecom, the biggest mobile-phone company by subscribers in the Middle East. A purchase would have broadened MTN’s presence in Africa and the Middle East and extended its reach to markets such as Bangladesh, Pakistan and North Korea. Failed Deals That came after MTN and India’s Bharti Airtel Ltd. failed for the second time last year to conclude a $23 billion merger that would have created the world’s third-largest mobile phone company by subscribers. Talks about a tie-up with Indian mobile operator Reliance Communications Ltd. ended without an agreement in July 2008. Bharti said this week that it had completed a $9 billion deal to acquire African assets from Kuwait’s Mobile Telecommunications Co., also known as Zain. MTN’s discussions with Orascom were “terminated,” MTN said in a statement yesterday, without giving a reason. MTN spokeswoman Nozipho January-Bardill and Orascom spokeswoman Manal Abdel-Hamid didn’t respond to messages left on their mobile phones. Orascom Telecom operates in Algeria, North Korea, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Egypt, Tunisia, the Central African Republic, Burundi, Namibia and Zimbabwe. The talks failed after Algeria’s government blocked a possible sale to MTN of Orascom’s largest and most profitable unit, Djezzy. “It was clear that after Djezzy was out, there couldn’t be a deal,” Ivy Asset’s Main said. Algerian Obstacle The Algerian government has said it would make an offer to Orascom for the local unit, exercising its rights of pre- emption. Orascom Telecom this month said it received a letter from the Algerian government saying that it was preparing for talks on the possible purchase of the company’s unit there. MTN rose 3.2 percent to 101.40 rand in Johannesburg yesterday, while Orascom Telecom shares rose 1.9 percent to 5.88 Egyptian pounds in Cairo. Nhelko needs new growth drivers. In March, the company said full-year profit fell, as South African customer numbers declined 6.4 percent to 16.1 million, the first time subscribers in MTN’s home market have dropped. Subscriptions were hurt by a new law requiring customers to supply personal details to mobile-phone companies. The company’s regional market is also getting crowded. Mobile-phone operators, including the U.K.’s Vodafone Group, are seeking growth in Africa as revenue gains slow in their home markets. India’s Bharti Airtel bought Zain assets in 15 African countries. In April, France Telecom SA CEO Stephane Richard said the Paris-based company may invest as much as 7 billion euros ($8.4 billion) in deals focused on Africa and the Middle East in the next five years. To contact the reporter on this story: Nicky Smith in Johannesburg at nsmith38@bloomberg.net

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Kerviel Says in Court He Faked Trades, Exceeded SocGen’s Limits for Years

June 9, 2010

By Heather Smith and Carol Matlack June 9 (Bloomberg) — Former Societe Generale SA trader Jerome Kerviel told a Paris court he began faking transactions as early as 2005 and regularly exceeded trading limits the French bank set. Kerviel, on trial for abuse of trust, faking documents and computer hacking related to a 4.9 billion-euro ($5.9 billion) trading loss, said he fabricated hedging trades “to cover my positions.” He said yesterday he “hid nothing” from the bank when taking positions in European stock market index futures. The 33-year-old today described how he made successful bets in 2005 on the stock movements of Germany’s Allianz SE . “I used a trading strategy that worked,” Kerviel said. “The results were growing.” Kerviel worked for Societe Generale, France’s second- largest bank by market value, for more than seven years, rising to trader in 2005. The Paris-based bank disclosed his unauthorized bets on Jan. 24, 2008, with then-Chief Executive Officer Daniel Bouton calling Kerviel a “terrorist.” Kerviel faces as many as five years in jail and 375,000 euros in fines if found guilty. Under questioning by Judge Dominique Pauthe, Kerviel said he began making larger bets in 2005 and started falsifying transactions indicating he had covered his bets. Exceeding Limits Kerviel said he continued to exceed the 125 million-euro trading limit set for the Delta One trading desk where he worked in the years after 2005. “Seventy percent of the time, limits were exceeded,” Kerviel said when a prosecutor said he was the only one who exceeded limits. He said that the controls on his computer were “deactivated,” allowing him to fake transactions. The head of his trading desk knew as early as April 2007 that Kerviel was making fictitious transactions, Kerviel said. Jean-Pierre Mustier , the former head of Societe Generale’s Corporate and Investment Banking Division, testified that he was unaware of the unauthorized trades and that he had “never seen Jerome Kerviel” before the fraud was discovered. ‘The Most Money’ “He can’t say that management knew,” Mustier told the court. “Jerome Kerviel is the trader who lost the most money in the world.” Kerviel’s lawyers have argued that the trading loss rose to 4.9 billion euros because the bank decided to liquidate the portfolio over three days. The former head of the French market regulator Jean- Francois Lepetit earlier today testified that the bank had to unwind Kerviel’s unauthorized trades immediately after discovering them. Lepetit said it would have been “indefensible” to maintain the positions to trim losses. “Societe Generale made not just the right decision, but the only decision,” Lepetit, the ex-president of the Autorite des Marches Financiers, testified. “I think that it was probably vital, for Societe Generale, and at the same time for the market, that the operation was started right away.” Kerviel worked on the Delta One trading desk, specializing in European stock market index futures. His job was to arbitrage small price differences between futures contracts, not to take bets on the markets’ direction. Trading Losses His positions, mostly on Germany’s DAX Index and the pan- European Euro Stoxx 50, had losses of 1.4 billion euros when Societe Generale discovered the fraud. The bank said it lost an additional 3.5 billion euros liquidating the stakes as European markets fell. “When an institution like Societe Generale is exposed, when there is a problem, all the financial instruments issued by the bank will be immediately sold by investors,” Lepetit told the court. Lepetit, under questioning from Kerviel lawyer Olivier Metzner and judges, criticized assertions that Kerviel didn’t need to report that he had surpassed his trading limits. “When you exceed a limit, transparency says ‘I tell my boss,’” Lepetit said. “There is no justification for silence.” To contact the reporter on this story: Heather Smith in Paris at hsmith26@bloomberg.net

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Cathay Pacific, Air France Embrace Airbags Ahead of Tighter Safety Rules

June 9, 2010

By Cornelius Rahn June 9 (Bloomberg) — Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. and Air France-KLM Group have begun introducing seatbelt-mounted airbags in their economy-class cabins as authorities tighten regulations aimed at reducing the risk of fatalities in plane crashes. All aircraft built in the U.S. since October must conform to standards designed to keep passengers conscious through an impact involving deceleration at 16 times the force of gravity so that they can escape any subsequent fire. The same rules will be introduced in Europe by the end of next year, European Aviation Safety Agency spokesman Jeremie Teahan said. While many seats comply with the so-called 16g rule without needing airbags, which are installed in about 2 percent of seats, manufacturer AmSafe Inc. predicts they’ll become standard by 2020 amid heightened awareness of safety issues. The devices cost about $1,200 apiece, versus $25 for a regular seatbelt. “The problem with our economy seats is that they have rigid shells and a head impact is more difficult to handle,” Cathay Pacific Chief Executive Officer Tony Tyler said in an interview in Berlin. “Therefore we need airbags.” About 80 percent of plane crashes are survivable, and a study of 25 impact-related accidents by the U.K.’s Civil Aviation Authority for the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration in 2005 concluded that stronger seats and better restraints could have averted 62 fatalities. The world’s airlines have a total capacity of 2.8 million seats, according to Dunstable, England-based OAG, which gathers statistics on the global aviation industry. Jumbo Exempt Safety rules for seats introduced in the U.S. in 1988 and Europe in 1992 applied only to new models, exempting planes including the Boeing Co. 747 jumbo jet and Airbus SAS A320 that were introduced earlier but are still in production today. Under the stricter rules, all new-build planes must be 16g compliant. AmSafe’s airbags are stored in the seatbelt and inflate within 90 milliseconds of a crash, expanding up and away from the passenger to accommodate head movement in all directions. The Phoenix-based company, which also makes 95 percent of all aircraft seatbelts, introduced the technology in 2001 and says it has been sold to more than 50 carriers including Singapore Airlines Ltd. , US Airways Group Inc., Emirates, Japan Airlines Corp. and Swiss International Air Lines AG. Airbags are required for standard berths where there is no seat in front to cushion against an impact, such as those facing bulkheads, galleys and lavatories, and for premium-class layouts where seats are angled to face into the aisle, Bill Hagan , the president of AmSafe ’s aviation unit, said in an interview. Fixed Back Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific became the first carrier to equip whole planes — Airbus A340s and Boeing 777s — with airbags, allowing it to use a “shell seat” design from BE Aerospace Inc. that didn’t otherwise comply with regulations, Hagan said. The berth, introduced in coach class in July 2008, has a fixed back that doesn’t move even when reclined, helping to protect personal space, according to the Cathay website. Air France-KLM, Europe’s biggest airline, has fitted airbags after installing the same seats in the premium-economy cabins of its 777 jetliners, spokeswoman Brigitte Barrand said by telephone. About 2,200 berths are involved, Hagan said. Disadvantages Air France considered using airbags in the past but concluded that the potential disadvantages of accidental inflation outweighed the benefit of greater cushioning, according to CEO Pierre-Henri Gourgeon . Cathay Pacific closed down 2.8 percent at HK$15.40 in Hong Kong, reducing the stock’s gain this year to 6.4 percent. Air France-KLM was trading 0.6 percent lower at 9.50 euros as of 10:48 a.m. in Paris and has declined 14 percent this year. Swiss International was also required to fit airbags in the business-class seats of its A330-300s, which entered service in April last year, spokeswoman Sonja Ptassek said. The unit of Deutsche Lufthansa AG will have 10 of the planes by March. Hagan says the client base for AmSafe’s airbags has almost doubled from a year ago and that the company is in talks with “major North American carriers” on equipping entire planes with the product, with deals likely to close in 2011. “The real driver until now has been the premium segment,” Hagan said. “But at a certain point you gain a critical footprint where airlines consider extending airbag use across the plane. I believe this point will be reached next year.” Still, the International Air Transport Association , which represents airlines worldwide, says it isn’t sure about the wider application of the technology beyond specific cases. “We’re investigating whether airbags make sense,” Guenther Matschnigg , IATA’s senior vice president for safety, operations and infrastructure, said in an interview. “We need to have numbers before we take any stance.” IATA will probably make recommendations to the European Aviation Safety Agency later this year, Matschnigg said in Berlin where, like Tyler and Gourgeon, he was attending the group’s annual meeting. “If anyone can prove that airbags make a difference, we’ll be the first to recommend them,” he said. To contact the reporter on this story: Cornelius Rahn in Berlin via crahn2@bloomberg.net

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Sarkozy, Merkel Urge Faster Action on Sovereign Swaps Market, Short Sales

June 9, 2010

By Ben Moshinsky and Gregory Viscusi June 9 (Bloomberg) — France and Germany called on the European Union to speed up curbs on financial speculation, saying some bets against stocks and government bonds should be banned as markets suffer a resurgence of “strong volatility.” In a joint two-page letter, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel sought proposals from European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso on a ban on so-called naked short sales of “certain” stock and bonds, as well as on naked credit-default swaps on sovereign bonds. They call for proposals to be ready by the middle of next month rather than October as had been planned. The letter shapes a common position between the leaders of Europe’s two largest economies after Merkel last month caught other EU leaders off guard when she unilaterally banned naked sovereign credit-default-swaps within Germany. She argued the actions of “speculators” exacerbated the European debt crisis that has rattled markets and driven the euro to a four-year low. “The return of strong volatility in the markets makes it necessary to question certain financial methods and certain products such as naked short-selling and credit default swaps,” the leaders said in the letter, e-mailed by their respective offices in Paris and Berlin today. While Sarkozy made greater market regulation one of his main rallying cries since the start of the financial crisis, he has so far refused to follow Merkel’s lead and instead pushed for EU-wide measures. ‘Imperative’ to Regulate “The commission is doing a good job, just that the president and the chancellor want it speeded up,” French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde told reporters today after a meeting of Sarkozy’s Cabinet. “Regulating financial markets is imperative to restore confidence.” The Commission, the executive arm of the EU, should have its proposals ready before a mid-July meeting of European finance ministers, the letter said. The Commission is drafting proposals on short selling and sovereign credit-default-swaps which had been due in October. The Commission should “consider the possibility of a ban at the European level of naked short sales on all or certain shares and bonds, and on certain naked CDSs on sovereign securities,” the letter said. The European Commission will make a statement on the proposals at noon today in Brussels, said Chantal Hughes , a spokeswoman Michel Barnier , the EU’s financial services commissioner. “It would be very surprising if any proposals from the European Commission would be softer than what Germany has put in place,” Thomas Tindemanns , a financial regulatory lawyer at White & Case LLP in Brussels, said in a telephone interview. Merkel Isolated Stocks around the world dropped on May 19 when a temporary German ban was introduced. Eddy Wymeersch , chairman of the Committee of European Securities Regulators , said May 26 there was no “unanimous move to follow the German route.” Merkel’s Cabinet on June 2 nevertheless backed a draft bill that bans naked short-selling of credit-default swaps on euro- area government bonds and stocks of German companies. The draft, which will be put to parliament before the summer recess begins on July 9, also gives Germany’s Finance Ministry and the BaFin regulator leeway to ban euro-related derivatives trades without seeking further endorsement by lawmakers, and obliges investors to inform BaFin of naked short positions on shares in German companies. Credit-default swaps are derivatives that pay the buyer face value if a borrower — a country or a company — defaults. In exchange, the swap seller gets the underlying securities or the cash equivalent. Traders in naked credit-default swaps buy insurance on bonds they don’t own. Naked short selling involves selling a security without ever being in possession of it. Working ‘Closely’ Merkel and Sarkozy agreed in a phone conversation to work “closely together,” her office said in a statement issued late yesterday. They said they will prepare jointly for a June 17 EU summit and the subsequent Group of 20 gathering in Canada. Government officials have said the sovereign debt crisis and weak euro will dominate both meetings. European governments must “deliver a strong and unified position” on financial services rules before the G-20 summit in Toronto, Barroso told journalists last week in Brussels. Pia Ahrenkilde-Hansen , a spokeswoman for Barroso, couldn’t be immediately reached for comment. To contact the reporters on this story: Gregory Viscusi in Paris at gviscusi@bloomberg.net ; Ben Moshinsky in Brussels at bmoshinsky@bloomberg.net .

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RBS Said to Shorten List of Bidders for WorldPay Credit-Card Unit to Three

June 8, 2010

By Anne-Sylvaine Chassany and Andrew MacAskill June 8 (Bloomberg) — Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc , Britain’s biggest government-owned bank, narrowed the list of bidders for its credit card-payment processing unit to three from five, three people with knowledge of the talks said. TPG, David Bonderman ’s private-equity firm, New York-based Clayton, Dubilier & Rice LLC and a group formed by Advent International Corp. and Bain Capital LLC have been allowed to continue due diligence after submitting indicative bids last week, said the people, who declined to be identified because the details of the sale process are private. TPG and Clayton, Dubilier may team up, they said. The unit, also called Worldpay, could fetch as much as 2.5 billion pounds ($3.6 billion), the people said. That would make the takeover the biggest leveraged buyout in Europe since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008. CVC Capital Partners Ltd. and Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe, two private-equity firms that were making a joint bid, and Permira Advisers LLP, which had separately teamed up American Express Co., have dropped out of the auction, the people said. RBS is selling assets including WorldPay, 318 branches in the U.K. and its insurance division after receiving 45.5 billion pounds of funding from the U.K. government during the credit crisis, more than any other bank in the world. Chief Executive Officer Stephen Hester is shrinking the bank, which last year posted the biggest annual loss in U.K. corporate history. Michael Strachan, a spokesman at Edinburgh-based RBS, and officials at Advent, CVC, Permira, Clayton Dubilier and TPG declined to comment. Spokesmen for Bain, Welsh Carson and American Express weren’t immediately available to comment. To contact the reporters on this story: Anne-Sylvaine Chassany in Paris at achassany@bloomberg.net ; Andrew MacAskill in London at amacaskill@bloomberg.net

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EDF May Get Limited Boost From Power Law as French Legislators Cap Prices

June 8, 2010

By Tara Patel June 8 (Bloomberg) — Electricite de France SA investors who bought into the prospect that easing the government’s grip on the French power market would be a boon to the former monopoly may end up disappointed. Lawmakers start debating a bill today that will force EDF to sell a quarter of its power supply from its 58 reactors to GDF Suez SA and other competitors. The legislation is likely to hold down the price the state-controlled company can get for the electricity. EDF Chief Executive Officer Henri Proglio has said the legislation shouldn’t “pillage” the utility. EDF shares plunged 60 percent since peaking in 2007 as the company lost its monopoly to supply French households. When the state sold shares in the utility in 2005, investors expected power rates to rise and that EDF would benefit from lower costs to operate nuclear generators. Instead, rates remain 36 percent below the European average. “Investors may end up punishing EDF on disappointment,” Kilian de Kertanguy , a fund manager at Cholet-Dupont Gestion in Paris, said by e-mail. “As things stand now, the law will be negative for EDF.” The stock price reached a record 87.75 euros on Nov. 26, 2007, more than double yesterday’s close of 34.77 euros, valuing the company at 64.3 billion euros ($77 billion). President Nicolas Sarkozy ’s government is seeking to placate calls from European Union regulators to allow more competition while limiting power price increases. Lawmakers say France’s status is special, since it gets 78 percent of its output from nuclear plants, meaning costs are lower than in the U.K., for example, were natural-gas fired plants dominate. EDF spokesman Bernard Sananes in Paris declined to comment on the new law. Gradual Advance While EDF fought the law, known as Nome, to keep its dominant share of the power market, analysts said it may benefit from higher wholesale and consumer power prices in coming years. “The law won’t be a quick win for EDF but rather a significant, gradual advance,” said Per Lekander , a Paris-based analyst at UBS AG. “It’s essentially a 10- to 15-year deregulation of the French market.” The law, which will run through 2025, will bring the French market closer to more deregulated regimes in Germany and the U.K., where consumers pay more for their power. Rivals including GDF Suez , Poweo SA and Direct Energie have said competing with EDF is impossible with rates at these levels without access to its nuclear output. Under the proposed law, EDF will sell as much as 100 terawatt-hours a year to competitors who will be allowed to resell it only to French customers and forced to invest in future generation capacity. Lost Monopoly Almost three years after EDF lost its monopoly, the company has about 92 percent of domestic customers, Philippe de Ladoucette , head of regulator the Commission de Regulation de l’Energie, said last month. The new law is the only option to opening up the market, he said. “I don’t see scope for an overly bullish outcome for EDF,” Ingo Becker , an analyst at Kepler Capital Markets, said by phone. “The law will be an empty shell, a track for the train. Where we are heading and at what pace will be decided later.” Proglio said last month any power price less than 42 euros a megawatt-hour would amount to “pillage.” Prices will be determined by the government for three-year periods in consultation with the regulator. The wholesale price has to recognize costs of maintaining, dismantling and extending the life of existing reactors, according to the draft. Proglio has estimated 600 million euros are needed to extend the life of each reactor, for a total of 35 billion euros. Nuclear Power As the law stands, it stipulates EDF can charge a wholesale price for nuclear power linked to the below-market rate for industry that’s known as Tartam, currently about 42 euros a megawatt-hour. Government-set rates for households and small businesses would have to rise 11.4 percent if EDF sells wholesale power at 42 euros a megawatt-hour and then 3.5 percent annually through 2025, according to scenarios outlined by the regulator. Rates for larger businesses would have to rise by 14.8 percent and then 3.7 percent a year. “It’s a first step for industrial clients and competitors to EDF,” said Chicuong Dang, an analyst at KBL Richelieu Gestion. Rates will rise “over time,” he said. Some deputies in the French parliament oppose the prospect of higher power prices and sweeping changes for state-controlled EDF. They are expected to defend the nuclear “rente,” or the benefit to future generations of cheap power rates from past investments in nuclear reactors. “The law is trying to patch up a completely dysfunctional system,” said Socialist deputy Francois Brottes . “Was it worth smashing down everything to end up with that? And on top of that consumers will have to pay higher rates.” To contact the reporter on this story: Tara Patel in Paris at tpatel2@bloomberg.net

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Boeing Unlikely to Go Ahead Building 787-3 Variant

June 7, 2010

By Andrea Rothman June 7 (Bloomberg) — Boeing Co. is unlikely to go ahead with the 787-3 variant of its new Dreamliner model, a company executive said. “I’d be really surprised” if that type of the 787 got built, James Albaugh , Boeing’s head of the commercial division, said in an interview in Berlin yesterday. The executive spoke before the annual meeting of the International Air Transport Association, which begins today. The 787-3 was designed to carry as many as 330 passengers as far as 3,050 nautical miles, compared with as many as 250 passengers and as far as 8,200 nautical miles for the 787-8, according to Boeing. The Chicago-based manufacturer put the future of model under review in January after All Nippon Airways Co. changed its order for the 787-3 for another variant. The Dreamliner program has been plagued by delays as the manufacturer works on new technologies including advanced composite materials. Initially meant to fly in August 2007 and reach customers in May 2008, the plane was delayed five times. All Nippon was the first airline to order the Dreamliner, with an initial order in 2004 for 30 short-range and 20 long-haul versions. The company is awaiting its first 787 this year. Boeing’s main competitor, Airbus SAS, is working on the program for the A350 jet that the Toulouse, France-based company aims to start delivery in 2013. Maintaining that target will be “tense,” Louis Gallois , the chief executive officer of Airbus parent European Aeronautic, Defense & Space Co., said last week. To contact the reporter on this story: Andrea Rothman in Paris at aerothman@bloomberg.net

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Video: KFC Aims to Seduce French Diners With Colonel’s Recipe

June 4, 2010

June 4 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Isabelle Mas reports from Paris on KFC’s plans to seduce French diners with the Colonel’s secret recipe for fried chicken.

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Cohrs Set to Retire After Deutsche Bank Narrows M&ampA Gap With Goldman Sachs

June 3, 2010

By Jacqueline Simmons and Brett Foley June 4 (Bloomberg) — Michael Cohrs , co-head of investment banking at Deutsche Bank AG , is capping a 15-year career at the German lender just as it becomes a global leader in mergers and acquisitions. Deutsche Bank, which for years trailed Wall Street competitors in the mergers business, is the top takeover adviser in Europe, No. 3 in Asia, and fourth in the U.S., the biggest M&A market, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Globally, the Frankfurt-based bank ranks fourth. “We’ve been working at this for a decade,” said Cohrs, 53, in an interview at the firm’s offices in London’s financial district. “It’s an ongoing build-up, but people are taking us seriously as someone they trust for advice, not just someone to turn to for loans, debt, equity or asset finance.” Cohrs, who joined Deutsche Bank from S.G. Warburg in 1995 and has run investment banking with Anshu Jain since 2004, is planning to retire in coming weeks, Bloomberg Businessweek reports in its June 7 issue, citing two people with knowledge of the situation. Jain, 47, head of sales and trading, the bank’s biggest moneymaker, is likely to assume his responsibilities, which also include equity offerings and loan products, said the people, who asked not to be identified because an announcement hasn’t been made. Cohrs declined to discuss his departure. Deutsche Bank this year advised Qwest Communications International Inc. on its $10 billion sale to CenturyTel Inc., and worked with MetLife Inc. on the insurer’s purchase of American International Group Inc.’s Alico unit for $15.5 billion. It helped SAP AG buy Sybase Inc. for $5.3 billion. ‘Bulge Bracket’ The bank has worked on 79 takeovers this year valued at about $122 billion, Bloomberg data show. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is No. 1, with $156 billion of deals, followed by New York- based JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Zurich-based Credit Suisse Group AG. Morgan Stanley ranks fifth behind Deutsche Bank, according to the data. “Deutsche Bank has certainly joined the bulge bracket in terms of M&A,” said Scott Moeller , a professor at Cass Business School in London. “They will have to push hard to maintain their place and ensure the success is not just a flash in the pan. The established market leaders like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley aren’t going away.” Even as Deutsche Bank rises in the deal rankings, its fees from M&A trail competitors. The bank generated $210 million in revenue for merger advice at the end of April, compared with $543 million for Goldman Sachs and $434 million for JPMorgan, according to data from Freeman & Co. , a New York-based research firm. That may reflect situations where the bank got league table credit but had a lesser advisory role, said Jeffrey Nassof, an associate at Freeman. M&A Conundrum M&A remains a fraction of Deutsche Bank’s revenue , accounting for less than 2 percent of the total 9 billion euros ($11 billion) in the first quarter. “One of the conundrums is that while M&A may not be the biggest or most profitable business, it is clearly at the heart and soul of an investment bank because it signals the strength of your relationships,” said Cohrs, a former equities banker who worked for Goldman in New York and London from 1981 to 1991. Cohrs had originally timed his departure to coincide with the retirement of Deutsche Bank Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann , 62, who was scheduled to step down in May, according to people with knowledge of Cohrs’s plan. Ackermann agreed last year to stay for another three years because the board couldn’t agree on his successor . Next Generation Cohrs, an American who has an MBA from Harvard University, has been preparing new leaders within his global banking group since the end of last year. He appointed Jacques Brand , 49, and Stephan Leithner , 44, co-heads of global coverage, overseeing the firm’s investment bankers, and made M&A co-head Brett Olsher , 49, chairman of the global clients executive committee, in charge of leading relationships and transactions with clients. The financial crisis turned out to be a boon for Deutsche Bank’s M&A business, led by Olsher, an American, and Norwegian Henrik Aslaksen , 46. The firm was ninth in M&A in 2007, a year before the collapse of Bear Stearns Cos. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. ushered in a global credit crunch in which clients shied away from all but the safest financial companies. Unlike its biggest U.S. competitors, Deutsche Bank didn’t have to take a government bailout. It didn’t raise capital from shareholders as Barclays Plc and HSBC Holdings Plc did, or get investments from the sovereign wealth funds that Swiss rivals UBS AG and Credit Suisse turned to. “The crisis for us was quite good in some ways,” said Cohrs. “In the U.S., it meant that for the first time, we started to talk to people who hadn’t wanted to talk to us. People wanted to feel safe and secure.” Accelerating Hiring The crisis helped in another way: Deutsche Bank accelerated hiring as rivals went under or were acquired, luring 151 bankers for corporate finance since the end of 2007. Hires like William Curley and Anthony Viscardi , mortgage- finance specialists from Lehman Brothers, helped Deutsche Bank land roles with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. They advised Chairman Sheila Bair ’s team on the sale of IndyMac Bank to private investors last year and worked with the FDIC to find buyers for three Puerto Rican banks in April. Another recruit was Paul Stefanick , a former Merrill Lynch & Co. banker who joined in January 2009 after Merrill agreed to be sold to Bank of America Corp. Stefanick, who runs investment banking for industrial clients, landed a lead role advising Connecticut-based Stanley Works on its takeover last year of Black & Decker Corp. for $3.5 billion, a deal the companies had tried to pull off three times over about 27 years. ‘More Persistent’ Stefanick and his colleague Kirk Meighan sealed the deal when they convinced Stanley Works Chief Executive Officer John Lundgren and Chief Operating Officer Jim Loree that a decline in the companies’ combined market capitalization to $4 billion made the $2.4 billion of potential savings from a transaction all the more valuable, Loree said. “That was the moment the light bulb went on,” Loree said in an interview. Stefanick and Meighan, who advised Stanley Works alongside Goldman, “were just more persistent and very proactive in putting the opportunity in front of us,” said Loree. Deutsche Bank had no lending relationship with Stanley Works before the deal, underscoring its increasing ability to win M&A business because of relationships with CEOs instead of relying on its 1.67 trillion-euro balance sheet . About 30 percent of Deutsche Bank’s top 500 clients don’t have lending relationships with the bank, said Cohrs. Human Capital “They’ve made big investments in human capital and that’s paying dividends,” said Scott Simpson , co-head of Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP’s global transactions group, which includes M&A. “They’ve had a balance sheet they can use, but they also recruited very good bankers.” The challenge will be retaining them as the market recovers and competition for talent intensifies, said Ingo Walter , a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business . Recently, Deutsche Bank has lost senior bankers to firms including Nomura Holdings Inc., the Japanese brokerage investing 250 billion yen ($2.7 billion) to expand in the U.S. Michael Hill , Deutsche Bank’s former co-head of global natural resources, quit last week for Nomura, following Mark Epley , who had run the bank’s team advising private-equity firms. “Deutsche Bank has grown very fast and hired a lot of people from outside,” said New York University’s Walter. “If there are lots of external opportunities, there can be a ‘why stay’ mentality and you’ll see that kind of departure when the market is good.” To contact the reporters on this story: Jacqueline Simmons in Paris at jackiem@bloomberg.net Brett Foley in London at bfoley8@bloomberg.net ;

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Deutsche Bank’s Cohrs to Retire After Narrowing M&ampA Gap With Goldman Sachs

June 3, 2010

By Jacqueline Simmons and Brett Foley June 4 (Bloomberg) — Michael Cohrs , co-head of investment banking at Deutsche Bank AG , is capping a 15-year career at the German lender just as it becomes a global leader in mergers and acquisitions. Deutsche Bank, which for years trailed Wall Street competitors in the mergers business, is the top takeover adviser in Europe, No. 3 in Asia, and fourth in the U.S., the biggest M&A market, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Globally, the Frankfurt-based bank ranks fourth. “We’ve been working at this for a decade,” said Cohrs, 53, in an interview at the firm’s offices in London’s financial district. “It’s an ongoing build-up, but people are taking us seriously as someone they trust for advice, not just someone to turn to for loans, debt, equity or asset finance.” Cohrs, who joined Deutsche Bank from S.G. Warburg in 1995 and has run investment banking with Anshu Jain since 2004, is planning to retire in coming weeks, Bloomberg Businessweek reports in its June 7 issue, citing two people with knowledge of the situation. Jain, 47, head of sales and trading, the bank’s biggest moneymaker, is likely to assume his responsibilities, which also include equity offerings and loan products, said the people, who asked not to be identified because an announcement hasn’t been made. Cohrs declined to discuss his departure. Deutsche Bank this year advised Qwest Communications International Inc. on its $10 billion sale to CenturyTel Inc., and worked with MetLife Inc. on the insurer’s purchase of American International Group Inc.’s Alico unit for $15.5 billion. It helped SAP AG buy Sybase Inc. for $5.3 billion. ‘Bulge Bracket’ The bank has worked on 79 takeovers this year valued at about $122 billion, Bloomberg data show. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is No. 1, with $156 billion of deals, followed by New York- based JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Zurich-based Credit Suisse Group AG. Morgan Stanley ranks fifth behind Deutsche Bank, according to the data. “Deutsche Bank has certainly joined the bulge bracket in terms of M&A,” said Scott Moeller , a professor at Cass Business School in London. “They will have to push hard to maintain their place and ensure the success is not just a flash in the pan. The established market leaders like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley aren’t going away.” Even as Deutsche Bank rises in the deal rankings, its fees from M&A trail competitors. The bank generated $210 million in revenue for merger advice at the end of April, compared with $543 million for Goldman Sachs and $434 million for JPMorgan, according to data from Freeman & Co. , a New York-based research firm. That may reflect situations where the bank got league table credit but had a lesser advisory role, said Jeffrey Nassof, an associate at Freeman. M&A Conundrum M&A remains a fraction of Deutsche Bank’s revenue , accounting for less than 2 percent of the total 9 billion euros ($11 billion) in the first quarter. “One of the conundrums is that while M&A may not be the biggest or most profitable business, it is clearly at the heart and soul of an investment bank because it signals the strength of your relationships,” said Cohrs, a former equities banker who worked for Goldman in New York and London from 1981 to 1991. Cohrs had originally timed his departure to coincide with the retirement of Deutsche Bank Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann , 62, who was scheduled to step down in May, according to people with knowledge of Cohrs’s plan. Ackermann agreed last year to stay for another three years because the board couldn’t agree on his successor . Next Generation Cohrs, an American who has an MBA from Harvard University, has been preparing new leaders within his global banking group since the end of last year. He appointed Jacques Brand , 49, and Stephan Leithner , 44, co-heads of global coverage, overseeing the firm’s investment bankers, and made M&A co-head Brett Olsher , 49, chairman of the global clients executive committee, in charge of leading relationships and transactions with clients. The financial crisis turned out to be a boon for Deutsche Bank’s M&A business, led by Olsher, an American, and Norwegian Henrik Aslaksen , 46. The firm was ninth in M&A in 2007, a year before the collapse of Bear Stearns Cos. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. ushered in a global credit crunch in which clients shied away from all but the safest financial companies. Unlike its biggest U.S. competitors, Deutsche Bank didn’t have to take a government bailout. It didn’t raise capital from shareholders as Barclays Plc and HSBC Holdings Plc did, or get investments from the sovereign wealth funds that Swiss rivals UBS AG and Credit Suisse turned to. “The crisis for us was quite good in some ways,” said Cohrs. “In the U.S., it meant that for the first time, we started to talk to people who hadn’t wanted to talk to us. People wanted to feel safe and secure.” Accelerating Hiring The crisis helped in another way: Deutsche Bank accelerated hiring as rivals went under or were acquired, luring 151 bankers for corporate finance since the end of 2007. Hires like William Curley and Anthony Viscardi , mortgage- finance specialists from Lehman Brothers, helped Deutsche Bank land roles with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. They advised Chairman Sheila Bair ’s team on the sale of IndyMac Bank to private investors last year and worked with the FDIC to find buyers for three Puerto Rican banks in April. Another recruit was Paul Stefanick , a former Merrill Lynch & Co. banker who joined in January 2009 after Merrill agreed to be sold to Bank of America Corp. Stefanick, who runs investment banking for industrial clients, landed a lead role advising Connecticut-based Stanley Works on its takeover last year of Black & Decker Corp. for $3.5 billion, a deal the companies had tried to pull off three times over about 27 years. ‘More Persistent’ Stefanick and his colleague Kirk Meighan sealed the deal when they convinced Stanley Works Chief Executive Officer John Lundgren and Chief Operating Officer Jim Loree that a decline in the companies’ combined market capitalization to $4 billion made the $2.4 billion of potential savings from a transaction all the more valuable, Loree said. “That was the moment the light bulb went on,” Loree said in an interview. Stefanick and Meighan, who advised Stanley Works alongside Goldman, “were just more persistent and very proactive in putting the opportunity in front of us,” said Loree. Deutsche Bank had no lending relationship with Stanley Works before the deal, underscoring its increasing ability to win M&A business because of relationships with CEOs instead of relying on its 1.67 trillion-euro balance sheet . About 30 percent of Deutsche Bank’s top 500 clients don’t have lending relationships with the bank, said Cohrs. Human Capital “They’ve made big investments in human capital and that’s paying dividends,” said Scott Simpson , co-head of Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP’s global transactions group, which includes M&A. “They’ve had a balance sheet they can use, but they also recruited very good bankers.” The challenge will be retaining them as the market recovers and competition for talent intensifies, said Ingo Walter , a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business . Recently, Deutsche Bank has lost senior bankers to firms including Nomura Holdings Inc., the Japanese brokerage investing 250 billion yen ($2.7 billion) to expand in the U.S. Michael Hill , Deutsche Bank’s former co-head of global natural resources, quit last week for Nomura, following Mark Epley , who had run the bank’s team advising private-equity firms. “Deutsche Bank has grown very fast and hired a lot of people from outside,” said New York University’s Walter. “If there are lots of external opportunities, there can be a ‘why stay’ mentality and you’ll see that kind of departure when the market is good.” To contact the reporters on this story: Jacqueline Simmons in Paris at jackiem@bloomberg.net Brett Foley in London at bfoley8@bloomberg.net ;

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Covered Bond Sales Rise Amid Sovereign Deficits Credit Markets

June 3, 2010

By Sonja Cheung and Caroline Hyde June 3 (Bloomberg) — Sales of covered bonds are accelerating as investors seek debt backed by collateral amid concern about the creditworthiness of governments and banks. About $7.7 billion of the securities have been sold or are being marketed this week worldwide, more than double last week’s total, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Bank of Montreal , Canada’s fourth-largest bank, sold $2 billion of the bonds due in 2015. Demand for securities backed by mortgages and public-sector loans with top ratings is rising as European governments from Greece to Spain struggle to cut record budget deficits, threatening the region’s banks. Covered bonds returned 0.25 percent in May, compared with a 0.4 percent loss on global investment-grade company debt, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show. “In this new world where volatility is high,” it’s “certainly an advantage to be holding bonds that have collateral backing,” said Georg Grodzki , head of credit research at Legal & General Investment Management in London. The company, which oversees almost 300 billion pounds ($439 billion), is a “selective buyer” of covered bonds, favoring notes sold by northern European issuers, he said. Yields have risen at a slower pace relative to government securities than corporate debt. Spreads on euro-denominated covered bonds have widened 9 basis points to 153 basis points since May 6, compared with an increase of 28 basis points to 196 for company debt, Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show. Company Bond Sales The increase in covered bond sales contrasts with a decline in corporate debt issuance to $70 billion last month, less than half April’s tally and the least since 2003, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Elsewhere in credit markets, BP Plc bonds rose the most since March 2009, rebounding from a record low, as investors assessed liabilities stemming from the worst oil spill in U.S. history. The 4.75 percent notes due in 2019, issued by the company’s finance unit, increased 2.7 cents to 92.9 cents on the dollar as of 12:28 p.m. in New York, according to Trace, the bond price reporting system of the Financial Industry regulatory Authority. The debt fell to 90.1 cents yesterday, the lowest ever. BP bonds had fallen as the London-based company’s efforts to plug its gushing well failed and the U.S. Justice Department said it’s investigating whether any criminal or civil laws were violated. The leak began after an April 20 explosion aboard the Deepwater Horizon rig, which BP leased from Vernier, Switzerland-based Transocean Ltd. BP Rating Cut “Investors are starting to get their hands around the potential exposures the spill companies may have,” said Joel Levington , managing director of corporate credit at Brookfield Investment Management Inc. in New York. BP’s credit ranking was cut one step to Aa2 by Moody’s Investors Service and is on review another possible downgrade, the New York-based rating company said today in a statement. Fitch Ratings cut BP’s ranking one notch to AA from AA+. A gauge of U.S. corporate credit risk fell for a second day as factory orders rose and the service industry expanded in May for a fifth straight month. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index Series 14, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, dropped 0.3 basis point to a mid-price of 117.1 basis points as of 12:01 p.m. in New York, according to Markit Group Ltd. The index typically falls as investor confidence improves and rises as it deteriorates. European Risk Falls The cost of insuring against non-payment on European corporate bonds fell the most in a week today, according to traders of credit-default swaps, while indexes in Asia also declined. The rally in credit coincided with gains in Europe and Asia stock markets, with the DJ Stoxx 600 Europe index rising 1.4 percent. Default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 mostly high-yield European companies fell 24.4 basis points to a two-week low of 558.8, according to Markit data. The decline signals an improvement in investor perceptions of credit quality. Credit-default swaps on European sovereign notes snapped three days of increases, with contracts tied to Italy dropping 10 basis points to 223, declining from a record, according to CMA DataVision. Default swaps linked to Greece’s government bonds fell 21 basis points to 717, Spain dropped 12 basis points to 238 and Portugal was 15 basis points lower at 330, CMA prices show. SovX Europe Index The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of credit- default swaps linked to debt of 15 governments fell to 147 basis points, from yesterday’s all-time high closing price of 154.5, according to CMA. Credit-default swaps on BP’s debt were 13 basis points lower at 246. In emerging markets, spreads narrowed 7 basis points on average to 307, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Emerging Market Bond index. Argentina’s new 2017 bonds sank in their first day of trading as the government began turning over the securities to investors as part of its restructuring of $18.3 billion of defaulted debt kept out of a 2005 settlement. The 8.75 percent notes tumbled to 80.85 cents on the dollar from their issue price of 90.11, Stone Harbor Investment Partners said. Argentina began issuing $738 million of the bonds yesterday to institutional investors who participated in an early tender period. The government is distributing the securities as compensation for past due interest. “Argentina came up with an issuance price which isn’t really in line with reality,” said Jim Craige , who helps manage $12 billion of emerging-market debt, including defaulted Argentine bonds, at Stone Harbor in New York. Covered Bond Sales Bank of Montreal yesterday sold U.S. dollar-denominated covered bonds in the first transaction in the currency in more than a month. BNP Paribas Home Loan Covered Bond SA, a unit of France’s largest bank, sold 1.5 billion euros ($1.8 billion) of five-year notes that yielded 42 basis points more than the swap rate, Bloomberg data show. Dexia SA in Brussels sold 500 million euros of 10-year bonds with a 15 basis-point spread. Bank of New Zealand , a unit of National Australia Bank Ltd., is meeting with investors this week before a possible sale of covered bonds, according to a person familiar with the plan. The lender has completed the documentation it needs to sell the covered notes, the person said, asking not to be named as the plans are private. A sale would be the first issue of such securities in New Zealand. ‘Flight to Safety’ “Investors are buying covered bonds rather than unsecured notes as a flight to safety,” said Florian Hillenbrand , a Munich-based senior analyst at UniCredit SpA, Italy’s biggest bank. Banks are “tapping the market now because it’s a nice window of opportunity and investors have money to put to work,” said Hillenbrand, who recommends buying German, French and Scandinavian covered bonds. Jose Sarafana , the Paris-based head of covered bond strategy at Societe Generale SA, said he expects another 60 billion euros of sales this year. “Covered bonds offer safer, more liquid assets than senior unsecured notes and therefore we’re seeing plenty of demand for new issues,” he said. Issues in the $2.9 trillion covered bond market get higher ratings than regular notes because they are backed by a pool of assets that can be sold in a default. The extra security typically allows lenders to pay less interest. Covered bonds, which date back to the 18th century, are mostly sold by banks and tend to originate from Europe. Lenders in the region are facing 195 billion euros of bad debts by the end of 2011 as governments cut spending to reduce budget deficits, the European Central Bank estimates. “Bond issuance was very low in May, so we’re now seeing banks looking to covered bonds to meet their growing refinancing needs,” said SocGen’s Sarafana. Borrowers are rushing to sell debt before the ECB’s year- long purchase program ends on June 30. The Frankfurt-based ECB said yesterday it has spent 55.1 billion euros of the 60 billion it set aside a year ago to support credit markets by buying covered bonds. To contact the reporters on this story: Sonja Cheung in London scheung58@bloomberg.net ; Caroline Hyde in London chyde3@bloomberg.net

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Air Liquide, Deutsche Bahn Lead in Revival of Europe Corporate Bond Sales

June 3, 2010

By Caroline Hyde and Sonja Cheung June 3 (Bloomberg) — Europe’s corporate bond market is re- opening with Air Liquide SA , the world’s biggest producer of industrial gases, and German railway Deutsche Bahn AG offering the first benchmark deals since April. Air Liquide in Paris is selling 500 million euros ($612 million) of 10-year notes yielding 90 basis points more than the benchmark swap rate, tighter than the 100 basis-point spread first offered to investors, said a banker involved in the deal. Deutsche Bahn raised 500 million euros yesterday from notes due in 2020 without offering a yield premium to its existing debt. “Air Liquide and Deutsche Bahn are the first benchmark corporate bonds in a month, and will likely reopen the market for other issuers,” said Maureen Schuller , a credit strategist at ING Groep NV in Amsterdam. “These are two solid names from the core countries, which is what investors are looking for.” Bond sales slumped 70 percent in May from the previous month to 13.7 billion euros amid investor concern Europe’s deficit crisis will hurt economic growth, making it harder for companies to repay debt. Air Liquide and Deutsche Bahn’s notes are the first non-financial issues since French retailer Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA and Aeroports de Paris sold benchmark bonds on May 5, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The extra yield investors demand to hold company bonds instead of government debt jumped to a nine-month high of 209 basis points on May 25, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s EMU Corporate Bonds Index. The spread is now 205, the index shows. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. Default Swaps The cost of insuring company debt in the market for credit- default swaps fell today with contracts on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-yield ratings declining 21.5 basis points to 554.5, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. State-owned Deutsche Bahn priced its notes at a spread of 60 basis points over swaps. The Berlin-based rail firm is rated Aa1 by Moody’s Investors Service, the second-highest grade, and a level lower by Standard & Poor’s. Deutsche Bahn’s deal shows investors “want to see investment opportunities on the primary market, even if the overall return on offer is limited,” said Markus Steilen , a syndicate manager at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, which was one of the banks managing the rail company’s issue. Air Liquide’s note sale is part of an exchange and tender offer for its 6.125 percent 2012 bonds, according to a May 26 statement. The company is rated A by S&P, the fifth-lowest investment-grade ranking. French railroad operator Reseau Ferre de France also sold new bonds by adding 250 million euros to its 4.5 percent January 2024 notes, according to Bloomberg data. The additional bonds yield 29 basis points more than the swap rate. To contact the reporters on this story: Caroline Hyde in London chyde3@bloomberg.net ; Sonja Cheung in London at scheung58@bloomberg.net

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Air Liquide, Deutsche Bahn Lead in Revival of Europe Corporate Bond Sales

June 3, 2010

By Caroline Hyde and Sonja Cheung June 3 (Bloomberg) — Europe’s corporate bond market is re- opening with Air Liquide SA , the world’s biggest producer of industrial gases, and German railway Deutsche Bahn AG offering the first benchmark deals since April. Air Liquide in Paris is selling 500 million euros ($612 million) of 10-year notes yielding 90 basis points more than the benchmark swap rate, tighter than the 100 basis-point spread first offered to investors, said a banker involved in the deal. Deutsche Bahn raised 500 million euros yesterday from notes due in 2020 without offering a yield premium to its existing debt. “Air Liquide and Deutsche Bahn are the first benchmark corporate bonds in a month, and will likely reopen the market for other issuers,” said Maureen Schuller , a credit strategist at ING Groep NV in Amsterdam. “These are two solid names from the core countries, which is what investors are looking for.” Bond sales slumped 70 percent in May from the previous month to 13.7 billion euros amid investor concern Europe’s deficit crisis will hurt economic growth, making it harder for companies to repay debt. Air Liquide and Deutsche Bahn’s notes are the first non-financial issues since French retailer Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA and Aeroports de Paris sold benchmark bonds on May 5, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The extra yield investors demand to hold company bonds instead of government debt jumped to a nine-month high of 209 basis points on May 25, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s EMU Corporate Bonds Index. The spread is now 205, the index shows. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. Default Swaps The cost of insuring company debt in the market for credit- default swaps fell today with contracts on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-yield ratings declining 21.5 basis points to 554.5, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. State-owned Deutsche Bahn priced its notes at a spread of 60 basis points over swaps. The Berlin-based rail firm is rated Aa1 by Moody’s Investors Service, the second-highest grade, and a level lower by Standard & Poor’s. Deutsche Bahn’s deal shows investors “want to see investment opportunities on the primary market, even if the overall return on offer is limited,” said Markus Steilen , a syndicate manager at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, which was one of the banks managing the rail company’s issue. Air Liquide’s note sale is part of an exchange and tender offer for its 6.125 percent 2012 bonds, according to a May 26 statement. The company is rated A by S&P, the fifth-lowest investment-grade ranking. French railroad operator Reseau Ferre de France also sold new bonds by adding 250 million euros to its 4.5 percent January 2024 notes, according to Bloomberg data. The additional bonds yield 29 basis points more than the swap rate. To contact the reporters on this story: Caroline Hyde in London chyde3@bloomberg.net ; Sonja Cheung in London at scheung58@bloomberg.net

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Covered Bond Sales Surge Transocean Tumbles Credit Markets

June 3, 2010

By Sonja Cheung and Caroline Hyde June 3 (Bloomberg) — Sales of covered bonds are accelerating as investors seek debt backed by collateral amid concern about the creditworthiness of governments and banks. About $7.7 billion of the securities have been sold or are being marketed this week worldwide, more than double last week’s total, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Bank of Montreal , Canada’s fourth-largest bank, sold $2 billion of the bonds due in 2015. Demand for securities backed by mortgages and public-sector loans with top ratings is rising as European governments from Greece to Spain struggle to cut record budget deficits, threatening the region’s banks. Covered bonds returned 0.25 percent in May, compared with a 0.4 percent loss on global investment-grade company debt, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show. “In this new world where volatility is high,” it’s “certainly an advantage to be holding bonds that have collateral backing,” said Georg Grodzki , head of credit research at Legal & General Investment Management in London. The company, which oversees almost 300 billion pounds ($440 billion), is a “selective buyer” of covered bonds, favoring notes sold by northern European issuers, he said. Yields have risen at a slower pace relative to government securities than corporate debt. Spreads on euro-denominated covered bonds have widened 9 basis points to 153 basis points since May 6, compared with an increase of 28 basis points to 196 for company debt, Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show. Company Bond Sales The increase in covered bond sales contrasts with a decline in corporate debt issuance to $70 billion last month, less than half April’s tally and the least since 2003, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Elsewhere in credit markets, Transocean Ltd. ’s notes fell the most in 17 months yesterday after BP Plc failed to plug its leaking Gulf of Mexico well and the U.S. investigated if criminal or civil laws were violated. The drilling contractor’s 5.25 percent securities due in 2013 declined 4.8 cents to 94.4 on the dollar, after trading as low as 92.5, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. London-based BP’s 5.25 percent 2013 notes tumbled 3.4 cents to 98.3 yesterday, while Anadarko Petroleum Corp.’s 6.45 percent bonds due 2036 plunged 4 cents to 81.9, the lowest since May 2009. Energy company bonds have plunged since the worst oil spill in U.S. history began after an April 20 explosion aboard the Deepwater Horizon rig, which BP leased from Transocean. “There’s more questions than answers so everyone wants to sell,” said Vivek Pal , an analyst at broker-dealer Knight Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut. Junk Bonds Moody’s Investors Service said an index measuring the difficulty of borrowing for junk-rated companies failed to show improvement for the first time in 13 months. The Moody’s Liquidity-Stress Index, which falls when more cash is available in the corporate bond market, was 4.8 percent in May, unchanged from April, the rating agency said in a statement. The index peaked at 20.9 percent in March 2009. “While credit market conditions have allowed issuers to improve near-term liquidity and chip away at forthcoming maturities, a significant amount of corporate debt still matures from 2010-2014,” Moody’s analyst John Puchalla said. More than $800 billion of junk debt will mature through 2014, causing a wave of distressed exchanges in which companies try to swap out their debt at a discount to face value to avoid bankruptcy, Moody’s said in a report last month. GE Sees Bargain General Electric Co.’s investment arm is buying U.S. commercial-mortgage securities and high-yield corporate bonds. “We’re adding in markets that we feel will recover nicely with a fundamental recovery in the U.S.,” Paul Colonna , who oversees $58 billion as chief investment officer for fixed income at GE Asset Management in Stamford, Connecticut, said yesterday in a telephone interview. “While we certainly had a volatile time over the last month or so, I don’t think this is the path for the rest of the year,” Colonna said. Investors lost money on high-yield corporate bonds and commercial mortgage-backed securities last month as bond buyers fled to the “safest assets,” such as U.S. Treasuries and home- loan bonds with government-backed guarantees, Bank of America Corp. said in a June 1 report. Bond Risk Falls The cost of insuring against non-payment on European corporate bonds fell the most in a week today, according to traders of credit-default swaps, while indexes in Asia also declined. The rally in credit coincided with gains in stock markets worldwide, with the DJ Stoxx 600 Europe index rising 2.2 percent, the most since May 27. Default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 mostly high-yield European companies fell 25.5 basis points to a two-week low of 550.5, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. at 10 a.m. in London. The decline signals an improvement in investor perceptions of credit quality. The Markit iTraxx Asia index of 50 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan shed 9 basis points to 136 basis points in Singapore, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc prices show. Credit-default swaps on European sovereign notes snapped three days of increases, with contracts tied to Italy dropping 10 basis points to 223, declining from a record, according to CMA DataVision. Default swaps linked to Greece’s government bonds fell 21 basis points to 717, Spain dropped 12 basis points to 238 and Portugal was 15 basis points lower at 330, CMA prices show. SovX Europe Index The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of credit- default swaps linked to debt of 15 governments fell to 147 basis points, from yesterday’s all-time high closing price of 154.5, according to CMA. Credit-default swaps on BP’s debt were 13 basis points lower at 246. In emerging markets, spreads narrowed 13 basis points on average to 314, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Emerging Market Bond index. Argentina’s new 2017 bonds sank in their first day of trading as the government began turning over the securities to investors as part of its restructuring of $18.3 billion of defaulted debt kept out of a 2005 settlement. The 8.75 percent notes tumbled to 80.85 cents on the dollar from their issue price of 90.11, Stone Harbor Investment Partners said. Argentina began issuing $738 million of the bonds yesterday to institutional investors who participated in an early tender period. The government is distributing the securities as compensation for past due interest. “Argentina came up with an issuance price which isn’t really in line with reality,” said Jim Craige , who helps manage $12 billion of emerging-market debt, including defaulted Argentine bonds, at Stone Harbor in New York. Covered Bonds Bank of Montreal sold U.S. dollar-denominated covered bonds in the first transaction in the currency in more than a month. BNP Paribas Home Loan Covered Bond SA, a unit of France’s largest bank, sold 1.5 billion euros ($1.8 billion) of five-year notes yesterday that yielded 42 basis points more than the swap rate, Bloomberg data show. Dexia SA in Brussels sold 500 million euros of 10-year bonds with a 15 basis-point spread. Bank of New Zealand , a unit of National Australia Bank Ltd., is meeting with investors this week before a possible sale of covered bonds, according to a person familiar with the plan. The lender has completed the documentation it needs to sell the covered notes, the person said, asking not to be named as the plans are private. A sale would be the first issue of such securities in New Zealand. ‘Flight to Safety’ “Investors are buying covered bonds rather than unsecured notes as a flight to safety,” said Florian Hillenbrand , a Munich-based senior analyst at UniCredit SpA, Italy’s biggest bank. Banks are “tapping the market now because it’s a nice window of opportunity and investors have money to put to work,” said Hillenbrand, who recommends buying German, French and Scandinavian covered bonds. Jose Sarafana , the Paris-based head of covered bond strategy at Societe Generale SA, said he expects another 60 billion euros of sales this year. “Covered bonds offer safer, more liquid assets than senior unsecured notes and therefore we’re seeing plenty of demand for new issues,” he said. Issues in the $2.9 trillion covered bond market get higher ratings than regular notes because they are backed by a pool of assets that can be sold in a default. The extra security typically allows lenders to pay less interest. Covered bonds, which date back to the 18th century, are mostly sold by banks and tend to originate from Europe. Lenders in the region are facing 195 billion euros of bad debts by the end of 2011 as governments cut spending to reduce budget deficits, the European Central Bank estimates. “Bond issuance was very low in May, so we’re now seeing banks looking to covered bonds to meet their growing refinancing needs,” said SocGen’s Sarafana. Borrowers are rushing to sell debt before the ECB’s year- long purchase program ends on June 30. The Frankfurt-based ECB said yesterday it has spent 55.1 billion euros of the 60 billion it set aside a year ago to support credit markets by buying covered bonds. To contact the reporters on this story: Sonja Cheung in London scheung58@bloomberg.net ; Caroline Hyde in London chyde3@bloomberg.net

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BP’s Alaskan Crown Jewel May Be Sold to Finance Cleanup of Gulf Oil Spill

June 3, 2010

By Joe Carroll June 3 (Bloomberg) — BP Plc may have to sell some of its most-valued assets, including a stake in the biggest U.S. oil field, to pay cleanup costs, fines and legal damages from the largest offshore spill in U.S. history. The 26 percent stake in Prudhoe Bay on Alaska’s North Slope and other BP assets could attract suitors such as China National Petroleum Corp., Occidental Petroleum Corp. and Hess Corp., said Douglas Ober , chief executive officer at Petroleum & Resources Corp. in Baltimore, the oldest U.S. oil fund. “BP is going to have to look to other assets to pay for this mess they’re creating,” said Ober, who oversees a combined $1.6 billion at the fund and Adams Express Co. “They won’t be able to use any of that cash flow to expand production or add to reserves, and that’s really going to put them in a bind.” BP lost 34 percent of its market value since an April 20 fire in the Gulf of Mexico killed 11 workers, sank a $365 million rig and triggered subsea leaks that have spewed millions of gallons of crude into the Gulf. The company has spent more than $1 billion trying to stanch the leaks and remove oil from the ocean. Ober sold all of his BP stock after 15 refinery workers perished in a 2005 explosion at the company’s Texas City, Texas, plant. Asset sales by BP are more likely than a takeover of the company because it’s too soon to estimate how much the spill and its aftermath will end up costing, said Gianna Bern , founder of Brookshire Advisory & Research Inc. in Flossmoor, Illinois, and a former BP crude trader. ‘Think Twice’ “A potential investor would think twice because this is unprecedented and it would take a decade to sort out liability and any potential litigation,” Bern said. BP, the largest oil and natural-gas producer in the U.S. region of the Gulf of Mexico, is facing criminal and regulatory probes into the causes of the disaster at its deep-sea Macondo well drilled with Transocean Ltd.’s Deepwater Horizon rig. BP’s latest attempt to contain the leaks stalled yesterday when a saw blade attached to a subsea robot snagged while cutting the pipe leading from the well. BP wants to sever the pipe to install a device that will divert the crude to a ship on the surface. The plunge in BP shares since the disaster wiped out 42.2 billion pounds ($61.8 billion) in market value, or more than the economic output of Nigeria, Vietnam or the Czech Republic. Biggest Crude Source Prudhoe Bay and other Alaskan fields were BP’s largest source of crude in the Western Hemisphere in 2009 after the Gulf of Mexico, according to a public filing. Alaskan fields provided one in every 14 barrels of oil BP pumped worldwide last year. BP operates or own stakes in 20 other fields on the North Slope, as well as four pipelines. In addition to Prudhoe Bay, rival companies may target the company’s holdings in oil-rich nations such as Azerbaijan and Angola, analysts said. China National’s PetroChina Co. and other Chinese state oil companies, backed by $2.4 trillion of foreign currency reserves, have embarked on a string of overseas purchases to feed oil to the world’s fastest-growing major economy. State-run Chinese companies spent a record $32 billion last year acquiring energy and resources assets overseas. China’s appetite for crude this year is expected to grow at 15 times the rate of demand in the U.S., the world’s largest energy market, the International Energy Agency in Paris said in a May 12 report. For the first time, China is expected to burn one in every nine barrels of oil produced in the world this year, IEA figures showed. China’s Financial Strength “China is always sniffing around for reserves,” said Ober, whose biggest holdings in the petroleum fund are Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp. and Occidental. “It wouldn’t necessarily have to be one of the western supermajors because there are other companies who could muster the financial strength to make a deal for these assets.” Richard Kline , a spokesman for Los Angeles-based Occidental, said neither Chief Executive Officer Ray Irani nor President and Chief Financial Officer Stephen I. Chazen were available to comment. Jon Pepper , a spokesman for New York-based Hess, declined to comment. BP spokeswoman Sheila Williams declined to comment for this story. Credit Suisse analysts yesterday said cleanup costs and legal settlements and claims ultimately may reach $37 billion, or almost nine times the costs incurred by Exxon when its Valdez tanker ran aground in Alaska’s Prince William Sound in 1989. Ober said he has steered clear of BP shares for the last five years because of concern the safety lapses that led to the Texas City refinery disaster remained unresolved. “That was a pretty nasty thing that happened and it demonstrated that they needed to get their safety record in order,” Ober said. “Clearly, they still have some work to do on that front.” To contact the reporter on this story: Joe Carroll in Chicago at jcarroll8@bloomberg.net .

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Stocks Jump in Europe, Asia on Economic Outlook U.S. Index Futures Climb

June 3, 2010

By Adria Cimino June 3 (Bloomberg) — European stocks rose for a fourth day ahead of reports that may show the recovery in the American economy is broadening. U.S. index futures gained and Asian shares surged by the most in six months. Total SA, Europe’s biggest oil refiner, and Repsol YPF SA gained more than 2.5 percent as investors speculated this week’s drop in energy shares overshot risks from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, increased 1.8 percent as copper rose. Valeo SA, France’s second- largest auto-parts supplier, rallied 7.7 percent after giving a first-half sales forecast. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index surged 1.9 percent to 250.11 at 8:22 a.m. in London. The measure has slumped 8.1 percent from this year’s high on April 15 on concern that European nations will have difficulty taming their budget deficits without harming the economic recovery. The drop has left the benchmark gauge trading at less than 15 times the reported earnings of its companies, near the cheapest valuation since 2008, according to Bloomberg data. “An air of opportunism does seem to be washing over the market with equities looking a little on the cheap side,” Ben Potter , a market strategist at IG Markets in Melbourne, wrote in a note. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.6 percent, indicating the benchmark gauge for U.S. equities may extend yesterday’s 2.6 percent rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped 2.8 percent, its biggest gain since Nov. 30. Services, Jobs Service industries in the U.S. expanded in May at the fastest pace in four years, showing the recovery is broadening as employment improves, economists said before reports today. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non-manufacturing businesses, which covers almost 90 percent of the U.S. economy, rose to 55.6 from 55.4 in April, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists before the report at 10 a.m. in New York. Other reports may show firings eased and private payrolls rose. The releases come a day before the U.S. Labor Department’s monthly jobs report. Payrolls climbed by 515,000 in May, the fifth straight month of gains and the biggest since 1983, according the median forecast. Total surged 2.9 percent to 38.97 euros. Repsol, Spain’s biggest oil company, rallied 2.7 percent to 16.99 euros. Crude oil gained for a second day in New York, with the contract for July delivery advancing as much as 2.1 percent. Leaking Well BP Plc rose 2.1 percent to 438.85 pence, rebounding from the lowest level in more than a year. The company said it is preparing a second attempt to cut the main pipe on a leaking oil well in the Gulf of Mexico after freeing a saw blade that became stuck during preparatory work to siphon the crude to ships on the surface. The biggest oil spill in U.S. history has soiled about 100 miles (161 kilometers) of coastline, halted new exploratory deep-water drilling in the Gulf, shut down a third of its fishing areas and cost BP almost $1 billion. BP shares have slumped 34 percent in London since the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig exploded April 20 and sank two days later, killing 11 workers and causing the leak. BHP Billiton advanced 1.8 percent to 1,890 pence in London. Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, climbed 2.7 percent to 3,222 pence. Copper, lead and nickel were among metals rising in London. Valeo surged 7.7 percent to 23.58 euros. The company said it expects sales of about 4.7 billion euros ($5.8 billion) in the first half and an operating margin of about 6 percent. Air France-KLM Group jumped 4.3 percent to 10.34 euros. Europe’s biggest airline said passenger traffic rose 4.3 percent in May. Johnson Matthey Plc advanced 1.5 percent to 1,579 pence. The producer of a third of all autocatalysts said sales were 7.84 billion pounds ($11.6 billion) in the year to March 31, compared with 7.85 billion pounds a year earlier. Pretax profit dropped to 228.5 million pounds from 249.4 million pounds. To contact the reporter on this story: Adria Cimino in Paris at acimino1@bloomberg.net .

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Covered Bond Sales Surge, Transocean Falls, GE Buys CMBS Credit Markets

June 2, 2010

By Sonja Cheung and Caroline Hyde June 3 (Bloomberg) — Sales of covered bonds are accelerating as investors seek debt backed by collateral amid growing concern about the creditworthiness of governments and banks. About $5.7 billion of the securities have been sold or are being marketed this week worldwide, almost double last week’s volume, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Bank of Montreal , Canada’s fourth-largest bank, sold $2 billion of the bonds due in 2015. Demand for securities backed by mortgages and public-sector loans with top ratings is rising amid concern European governments from Greece to Spain will struggle to cut record budget deficits, hurting the region’s banks. Covered bonds returned 0.25 percent in May, compared with a 0.4 percent loss on global investment-grade company debt, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show. “In this new world where volatility is high,” it’s “certainly an advantage to be holding bonds that have collateral backing,” said Georg Grodzki , head of credit research at Legal & General Investment Management in London. The company, which oversees almost 300 billion pounds ($440 billion), is a “selective buyer” of covered bonds, favoring notes sold by northern European issuers, he said. Yields have risen at a slower pace relative to government securities than corporate debt. Spreads on euro-denominated covered bonds have widened 9 basis points to 153 basis points since May 6, compared with a rise of 28 basis points to 196 for company debt, Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show. Company Bond Sales The increase in covered bond sales contrasts with a decline in issuance for corporate debt, which fell to $70 billion last month, less than half April’s tally and the least since 2003. Elsewhere in credit markets, Transocean Ltd. ’s notes fell the most in 17 months as energy company bonds continued to plunge. The drilling contractor’s 5.25 percent notes due in 2013 declined 4.8 cents to 94.4 cents on the dollar, after trading as low as 92.5 cents, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. BP Plc’s 5.25 percent 2013 notes tumbled 3.4 cents to 98.3 cents, while Anadarko Petroleum Corp.’s 6.45 percent bonds due 2036 plunged 4 cents to 81.9 cents, the lowest since May 2009. Energy company bonds have plunged as BP failed to plug its leaking Gulf of Mexico well and the U.S. said it is investigating whether any criminal or civil laws were violated. The worst spill in U.S. history began after an April 20 explosion aboard the Deepwater Horizon rig, which BP leased from Transocean. “There’s more questions than answers so everyone wants to sell,” said Vivek Pal , an analyst at broker-dealer Knight Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut. Junk Bonds Moody’s Investors Service said an index measuring the difficulty of borrowing for companies issuing junk bonds failed to show improvement for the first time in 13 months. The Moody’s Liquidity-Stress Index, which falls when more cash is available in the corporate bond market, was 4.8 percent in May, unchanged from April, the ratings agency said in a statement. The index peaked at 20.9 percent in March 2009. “While credit market conditions have allowed issuers to improve near-term liquidity and chip away at forthcoming maturities, a significant amount of corporate debt still matures from 2010-2014,” Moody’s analyst John Puchalla said in the statement. GE Sees Bargain More than $800 billion of junk debt will mature through 2014, with more than $700 billion coming due between 2012 and 2014, according to a Moody’s report last month. The amount coming due will probably cause a wave of distressed exchanges, in which companies try to swap out their debt at a discount to face value to avoid bankruptcy, the firm said. General Electric Co.’s investment arm is buying U.S. commercial-mortgage securities and high-yield corporate bonds. “We’re adding in markets that we feel will recover nicely with a fundamental recovery in the U.S,” Paul Colonna , who oversees $58 billion as chief investment officer for fixed income at GE Asset Management in Stamford, Connecticut, said yesterday in a telephone interview. Investors lost money on high-yield corporate bonds and commercial mortgage-backed securities last month as bond buyers fled to the “safest assets,” such as U.S. Treasuries and home- loan bonds with government-backed guarantees, Bank of America Corp. said in a June 1 report. “While we certainly had a volatile time over the last month or so, I don’t think this is the path for the rest of the year,” Colonna said. Bond Risk Indexes of credit-default swaps fell in Asia and the U.S. and rose in Europe. The Markit iTraxx Asia index of 50 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan, which investors use to hedge against losses on sovereign and corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, declined 10 basis points to 135 basis points as of 8:23 a.m. in Singapore, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc prices show. The index typically falls as investor confidence improves and rises as it deteriorates. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index Series 14 declined 4 basis points to a mid-price of 117.6 as of 5:46 p.m. in New York, according to Markit Group Ltd. It declined after the National Association of Realtors said yesterday the number of contracts to buy previously owned homes climbed in April as Americans took advantage of the last month of a tax credit for purchases. “The macro headwinds, at least for today, are seen as slightly more beneficial,” said Brian Yelvington , head of fixed-income strategy at Knight Capital. European Debt Credit-default swaps on European sovereign debt rose for the third day as speculation Spain will struggle to refinance $38 billion of debt next month stoked concern the region’s deficit crisis may worsen. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of swaps on 15 governments rose 8.5 basis points to 156.9, approaching the record of 161 on May 25. In emerging markets, spreads narrowed 13 basis points on average to 314, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Emerging Market Bond index. Argentina’s new 2017 bonds sank in their first day of trading as the government began turning over the securities to investors as part of its restructuring of $18.3 billion of defaulted debt kept out of a 2005 settlement. Argentine Debt The 8.75 percent notes tumbled to 80.85 cents on the dollar from their issue price of 90.11 cents, Stone Harbor Investment Partners said. Argentina began issuing $738 million of the bonds yesterday to institutional investors who participated in an early tender period. The government is distributing the securities as compensation for past due interest. “Argentina came up with an issuance price which isn’t really in line with reality,” said Jim Craige , who helps manage $12 billion of emerging-market debt, including defaulted Argentine bonds, at Stone Harbor in New York. Bank of Montreal is marketing U.S. dollar-denominated covered bonds in the first transaction in the currency in more than a month. BNP Paribas Home Loan Covered Bond SA, a unit of France’s largest bank, sold 1.5 billion euros ($1.8 billion) of five-year notes that yielded 42 basis points more than the swap rate, Bloomberg data show. Dexia SA in Brussels sold 500 million euros of 10-year bonds with a 15 basis-point spread. “Investors are buying covered bonds rather than unsecured notes as a flight to safety,” said Florian Hillenbrand , a Munich-based senior analyst at UniCredit SpA, Italy’s biggest bank. He recommends buying German, French and Scandinavian covered bonds. Banks are “tapping the market now because it’s a nice window of opportunity and investors have money to put to work,” Hillenbrand said. ‘Plenty of Demand’ Jose Sarafana , the Paris-based head of covered bond strategy at Societe Generale SA, said he expects another 60 billion euros of sales this year. “Covered bonds offer safer, more liquid assets than senior unsecured notes and therefore we’re seeing plenty of demand for new issues,” he said. Issues in the $2.9 trillion covered bond market get higher ratings than regular notes because they are backed by a specific pool of assets that can be sold in a default. The extra security typically allows lenders to pay less interest. Covered bonds, which date back to the 18th century, are mostly sold by banks and tend to originate from Europe. Lenders in the region are facing 195 billion euros of bad debts by the end of 2011 as governments claw back spending to cut budget deficits, according to a European Central Bank estimate. “Bond issuance was very low in May, so we’re now seeing banks looking to covered bonds to meet their growing refinancing needs,” said SocGen’s Sarafana. Issuance may remain elevated after this month as borrowers rush to sell debt before ECB’s year-long purchase program ends on June 30, according to Leef Dierks , a covered bond analyst at Barclays Capital. The Frankfurt-based ECB set aside 60 billion euros to support credit markets by buying covered bonds a year ago and has spent 55.1 billion euros of that, it said yesterday in a statement on its website . To contact the reporters on this story: Sonja Cheung in London scheung58@bloomberg.net ; Caroline Hyde in London chyde3@bloomberg.net

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Prada Said to Consider Initial Public Offering for Fifth Time in 10 Years

June 2, 2010

By Sara Gay Forden, Elisa Martinuzzi and Andrew Roberts June 2 (Bloomberg) — Prada SpA, buoyed by surging profit at the eponymous fashion label, is exploring options to revive an initial public offering, according to four people familiar with the talks. Prada, which has scrapped an IPO four times in the last 10 years, is considering a Hong Kong listing in addition to Milan, said two of the people, who declined to be identified before a decision is made. Prada hasn’t yet appointed banks to manage the transaction, and talks may not lead to an offering, they said. Prada has cut debt and opened new stores in Asia as the industry rebounds from the worst year on record. Perfume maker L’Occitane International SA sold stock in Asia last month to take advantage of demand for IPOs in the region amid optimism that economic growth will exceed expansion elsewhere. “Prada has sailed well through choppy waters, thanks to its presence in Asia and the resilience of its shoe and handbag business,” said Armando Branchini , vice-president of Milan- based consulting firm InterCorporate. “The strong rebound in the first quarter, which may continue through the end of the year, would make it an opportune time to consider an IPO.” The company continues to monitor market conditions, said a Prada spokesman, declining to comment further. While Prada may hold an IPO as soon as this year, it’s more likely the firm will wait for stock markets to rise and sell stock in 2011, according to one person. Surging Profit The fashion company, which is controlled by Chief Executive Officer Patrizio Bertelli , his wife Miuccia Prada and her family, said May 24 first-quarter earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization surged to 64 million euros ($78.5 million) from 11 million euros a year earlier. Revenue rose 26 percent to 366 million euros, led by a 62 percent gain in the Asia Pacific region. Prada abandoned plans to list in 2008 because of adverse market conditions. The company had hired Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, UniCredit SpA and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to manage the offering at the time. Prada, founded by head designer Miuccia Prada’s grandfather Mario Prada in 1913, still operates its first outlet in Milan’s 19th century Galleria shopping arcade. To contact the reporters on this story: Elisa Martinuzzi in Milan at emartinuzzi@bloomberg.net ; Sara Gay Forden in Milan via sforden@bloomberg.net ; Andrew Roberts in Paris at aroberts36@bloomberg.net

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Commodities&rsquo Biggest Drop Since Lehman Is Bear Signal

June 1, 2010

By Millie Munshi and Elizabeth Campbell June 1 (Bloomberg) — The biggest slump in commodities since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed is undermining Wall Street forecasts for accelerating economic growth and higher prices for everything from copper to crude oil. The Journal of Commerce Industrial Price Commodity Smoothed Price Index that tracks the growth rate of steel, cattle hides, tallow and burlap plunged 57 percent in May, two years after a decline that foreshadowed the worst recession in half a century. The index of 18 industrial materials declined the most since October 2008 as Europe’s debt crisis widened and China took steps to curb growth. Commodities extended their slump today, led by declines in industrial metals and energy prices, as separate reports showed manufacturing slowdowns last month in China, Europe and the U.S. “As risk-taking falls, expected growth is reduced,” said Colin P. Fenton , the chief executive officer of Curium Capital Advisors LLC in Boston, who was a commodity analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Stanley Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Capital Management LLC hedge fund. “Demand for commodities is going to be softer than it might otherwise have been.” While the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development raised its growth forecasts for this year and next on May 26, investors are dumping holdings at the fastest pace since February. Supply and Demand The Journal of Commerce Industrial Price Commodity Smoothed Price Index reflects clearer signs of supply and demand than futures markets because half the items it tracks don’t trade on exchanges used by speculators, said Lakshman Achuthan , the managing director at the New York-based Economic Cycle Research Institute. The gauge dropped to 25.97 on May 28 from 60.56 on April 30. In June 2008, a month after the index reached its peak, the Paris-based OECD said the U.S. would grow at a 1.1 percent rate the following year. Commodities continued to drop, and in October 2008, the index fell at a 56 percent annual rate, which was then the lowest level since 1949. Almost two months later, the National Bureau of Economic Research, the panel that dates American business cycles, said the U.S. was in a recession. The world’s largest economy shrank 2.4 percent, the worst contraction since 1946. Now, “the collapse in the commodity index is telling us that the peak in global industrial growth is imminent, it’s here right now,” Achuthan said. “Markets are going to have to deal with the reality of a slowdown.” Manufacturing Indexes Slide China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index slid to 53.9 from 55.7 in April, the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today. That was less than the median 54.5 estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 18 economists. A monthly gauge of manufacturing in the euro region fell to 55.8 from 57.6, Markit Economics said. The Institute for Supply Management said its U.S. factory index dropped to 59.7 in May from 60.4 in April. Europe’s debt crisis is only starting to weigh on global growth, said Michael Aronstein , a strategist at Oscar Gruss & Son Inc. who predicted the 2008 commodity plunge and is betting against a rally this year. The European Union announced an almost $1 trillion loan package last month to halt a slide in the euro and local bonds that threatened to shatter the currency union. Budget cuts across the region may curb demand for Chinese imports as well as commodities including gasoline, aluminum and steel. Sagging Demand Raw materials may drop another 10 percent because the economy is on the “cusp” of deflation, said Philip Gotthelf , the president of Equidex Brokerage Group Inc. in Closter, New Jersey. That would drive the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodity futures down 22 percent from a Jan. 6 peak and into what investors consider a bear market. The gauge plunged 8.2 percent in May, the most in 18 months. Gotthelf correctly predicted in October 2008 that oil would fall below $40 a barrel and said he is now shorting most commodities and buying gold. The CRB index fell 0.9 percent to 252.39 today. Nickel tumbled 4 percent, and crude oil dropped almost 2 percent. Economic forecasts have been rising. As a group, the OECD’s 30 member nations will grow 2.7 percent this year, the organization said. The expansion will reach 3.2 percent in the U.S. and 10.1 percent in China, according to separate surveys of economists by Bloomberg last month. Fundamental Strength “The market is underestimating the strength of the fundamentals and overestimating the impact that the European sovereign-funding issues will have on growth,” Jeffrey Currie , a Goldman Sachs analyst, said in an interview from London. He says the decline is a “buying opportunity.” Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. Chief Executive Officer Richard C. Adkerson told analysts on a conference call May 11 that while “there is still a lot of uncertainty” about the world economy and its reliance on demand from China, the Phoenix-based mining company sees “some pockets of demand improvement” and is taking steps to ramp up copper production. “There are headwinds, concerns both in Europe and in Asia that are making investors rethink their decisions and maybe take some profits, but I believe that the longer-term growth story remains intact,” said Michael Cuggino , who manages about $6 billion at Permanent Portfolio Funds in San Francisco. “I don’t think it’s a broader slowdown. I think it’s a correction.” Lower Prices Inflation is almost non-existent. In April, U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly dropped 0.1 percent, the first decrease since March 2009, government data show. In the 12 months ended in April, the cost of living rose 2.2 percent, following a 2.3 percent year-over-year gain in March. Bank of America Merrill Lynch says prices will continue to deteriorate. On May 25, the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank cut its oil forecast for the second half of the year to $78 from $92. Doane Agricultural Services Co. in St. Louis said May 18 that corn will drop 14 percent by October to $3.25 a bushel. Corn futures for December delivery dropped 1.3 percent today to $3.7525. Copper, a commodity former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan saw as an economic indicator, declined 7.4 percent in May, the biggest monthly slide since January. Burlap, used for industrial packaging, is down 9.7 percent this year, almost matching its 9.9 percent drop in 2008. Manufacturing Risk “If commodity prices are coming down, there is some downside risk to the manufacturing sector,” said Chris Rupkey , the chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “It’s too early to see it in people’s numbers yet, but if I had to guess, people will shave their estimates” for growth this year, he said. Commodities last fell into a bear market in 2008, when the CRB plunged 56 percent in five months as the U.S. suffered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, growth contracted on a global basis for the first time since 1981 and the Journal of Commerce index was below zero. Now, a slowdown in Europe, the biggest destination for Chinese exports, will “badly hurt” the Asian country, said Lewis Wan , the chief investment officer for Pride Investments Group, which oversees $150 million in Hong Kong. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index has tumbled 22 percent this year as the government enacted measures to cool its property market. As of last month, the European Union’s economy was expected to grow 1.1 percent this year after contracting 4.1 percent in 2009, the biggest drop since 1992, according to 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Euro Outlook A “wave of fiscal austerity” in Europe will depress the expansion in the region, in the U.S. and in China, according to Arnab Das , the head of global market research at Roubini Global Economics in London. Today, the euro touched $1.2111, the lowest level against the dollar since April 2006, as European unemployment climbed. Last month, Spain was forced to rescue banks and policy makers including Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said they would cut spending to combat a financial “tsunami” in the region. Investors are getting less bullish, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Speculative net-long positions , or bets on rising prices, for 16 commodity futures have dropped 33 percent in the past three weeks, CFTC data show. That’s the lowest level since Feb. 9, after the net-longs plunged 58 percent from a 20-month high on Jan. 12. “It’s the uncertainty that’s the biggest problem,” said John Kinsey , who helps manage C$1 billion ($995 million) at Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. in Toronto. “Commodities are being attacked with these concerns about the debt situation in Europe and the steps that China has taken to tighten. People are afraid this is going to slow the economy. It’s hard to see a way out of it.” To contact the reporter on this story: Millie Munshi in New York at mmunshi@bloomberg.net ; Elizabeth Campbell in New York at ecampbell14@bloomberg.net .

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